The ranking probability approach and its usage in design and analysis of large-scale studies.

PubMed

Kuo, Chia-Ling; Zaykin, Dmitri

2013-01-01

In experiments with many statistical tests there is need to balance type I and type II error rates while taking multiplicity into account. In the traditional approach, the nominal [Formula: see text]-level such as 0.05 is adjusted by the number of tests, [Formula: see text], i.e., as 0.05/[Formula: see text]. Assuming that some proportion of tests represent "true signals", that is, originate from a scenario where the null hypothesis is false, power depends on the number of true signals and the respective distribution of effect sizes. One way to define power is for it to be the probability of making at least one correct rejection at the assumed [Formula: see text]-level. We advocate an alternative way of establishing how "well-powered" a study is. In our approach, useful for studies with multiple tests, the ranking probability [Formula: see text] is controlled, defined as the probability of making at least [Formula: see text] correct rejections while rejecting hypotheses with [Formula: see text] smallest P-values. The two approaches are statistically related. Probability that the smallest P-value is a true signal (i.e., [Formula: see text]) is equal to the power at the level [Formula: see text], to an very good excellent approximation. Ranking probabilities are also related to the false discovery rate and to the Bayesian posterior probability of the null hypothesis. We study properties of our approach when the effect size distribution is replaced for convenience by a single "typical" value taken to be the mean of the underlying distribution. We conclude that its performance is often satisfactory under this simplification; however, substantial imprecision is to be expected when [Formula: see text] is very large and [Formula: see text] is small. Precision is largely restored when three values with the respective abundances are used instead of a single typical effect size value.

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

PubMed

Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

1999-06-01

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellikka, Havu; Leijala, Ulpu; Johansson, Milla M.; Leinonen, Katri; Kahma, Kimmo K.

2018-04-01

Coastal planning requires detailed knowledge of future flooding risks, and effective planning must consider both short-term sea level variations and the long-term trend. We calculate distributions that combine short- and long-term effects to provide estimates of flood probabilities in 2050 and 2100 on the Finnish coast in the Baltic Sea. Our distributions of short-term sea level variations are based on 46 years (1971-2016) of observations from the 13 Finnish tide gauges. The long-term scenarios of mean sea level combine postglacial land uplift, regionally adjusted scenarios of global sea level rise, and the effect of changes in the wind climate. The results predict that flooding risks will clearly increase by 2100 in the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Sea, while only a small increase or no change compared to present-day conditions is expected in the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.

Influence of level of education on disability free life expectancy by sex: the ILSA study.

PubMed

Minicuci, N; Noale, M

2005-12-01

To assess the effect of education on Disability Free Life Expectancy among older Italians, using a hierarchical model as indicator of disability, with estimates based on the multistate life table method and IMaCh software. Data were obtained from the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging which considered a random sample of 5632 individuals. Total life expectancy ranged from 16.5 years for men aged 65 years to 6 years for men aged 80. The age range for women was 19.6 and 8.4 years, respectively. For both sexes, increasing age was associated with a lower probability of recovery from a mild state of disability, with a greater probability of worsening for all individuals presenting an independent state at baseline, and with a greater probability of dying except for women from a mild state of disability. A medium/high educational level was associated with a greater probability of recovery only in men with a mild state of disability at baseline, and with a lower probability of worsening in both sexes, except for men with a mild state of disability at baseline. The positive effects of high education are well established in most research work and, being a modifiable factor, strategies focused on increasing level of education and, hence strengthening access to information and use of health services would produce significant benefits.

Probable levetiracetam-related serum alkaline phosphatase elevation

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Levetiracetam (LEV) is an antiepileptic drug with a favorable tolerability and safety profile with little or no effect on liver function. Case presentation Here, we reported an epileptic pediatric patient who developed a significant elevation in serum alkaline phosphatase level (ALP) during LEV monotherapy. Moreover, the serum ALP level was surprisingly decreased to normal after LEV discontinuation. The Naranjo Adverse Drug Reaction Probability Scale score was 6, indicating firstly LEV was a probable cause for the increased serum ALP. Conclusions Cautious usage and concerns of the LEV-associated potential ALP elevation should be considered when levetiracetam is prescribed to epilepsy patients, especially pediatric patients. PMID:22994584

Development of the probability of return of spontaneous circulation in intervals without chest compressions during out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: an observational study.

PubMed

Gundersen, Kenneth; Kvaløy, Jan Terje; Kramer-Johansen, Jo; Steen, Petter Andreas; Eftestøl, Trygve

2009-02-06

One of the factors that limits survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is the interruption of chest compressions. During ventricular fibrillation and tachycardia the electrocardiogram reflects the probability of return of spontaneous circulation associated with defibrillation. We have used this in the current study to quantify in detail the effects of interrupting chest compressions. From an electrocardiogram database we identified all intervals without chest compressions that followed an interval with compressions, and where the patients had ventricular fibrillation or tachycardia. By calculating the mean-slope (a predictor of the return of spontaneous circulation) of the electrocardiogram for each 2-second window, and using a linear mixed-effects statistical model, we quantified the decline of mean-slope with time. Further, a mapping from mean-slope to probability of return of spontaneous circulation was obtained from a second dataset and using this we were able to estimate the expected development of the probability of return of spontaneous circulation for cases at different levels. From 911 intervals without chest compressions, 5138 analysis windows were identified. The results show that cases with the probability of return of spontaneous circulation values 0.35, 0.1 and 0.05, 3 seconds into an interval in the mean will have probability of return of spontaneous circulation values 0.26 (0.24-0.29), 0.077 (0.070-0.085) and 0.040(0.036-0.045), respectively, 27 seconds into the interval (95% confidence intervals in parenthesis). During pre-shock pauses in chest compressions mean probability of return of spontaneous circulation decreases in a steady manner for cases at all initial levels. Regardless of initial level there is a relative decrease in the probability of return of spontaneous circulation of about 23% from 3 to 27 seconds into such a pause.

Health effects in women exposed to low levels of ionizing radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fabrikant, J.I.

1982-06-01

There are three delayed health effects of radiation which appear at the present time to have importance to women in radiation protection. These are: (1) the probability of cancer-induction at low doses and low-dose rates; (2) the consideration of those cancers in women, notably the breast and the thyroid, attributable to radiation exposure; and (3) the probability of induction of developmental abnormalities in the newborn following low-dose exposure in utero. The bases for the concern over these effects are discussed. (ACR)

Areal distribution and concentration of contaminants of concern in surficial streambed and lakebed sediments, Lake St. Clair and tributaries, Michigan, 1990-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rachol, Cynthia M.; Button, Daniel T.

2006-01-01

As part of the Lake St. Clair Regional Monitoring Project, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated data collected from surficial streambed and lakebed sediments in the Lake Erie-Lake St. Clair drainages. This study incorporates data collected from 1990 through 2003 and focuses primarily on the U.S. part of the Lake St. Clair Basin, including Lake St. Clair, the St. Clair River, and tributaries to Lake St. Clair. Comparable data from the Canadian part of the study area are included where available. The data are compiled into 4 chemical classes and consist of 21 compounds. The data are compared to effects-based sediment-quality guidelines, where the Threshold Effect Level and Lowest Effect Level represent concentrations below which adverse effects on biota are not expected and the Probable Effect Level and Severe Effect Level represent concentrations above which adverse effects on biota are expected to be frequent.Maps in the report show the spatial distribution of the sampling locations and illustrate the concentrations relative to the selected sediment-quality guidelines. These maps indicate that sediment samples from certain areas routinely had contaminant concentrations greater than the Threshold Effect Concentration or Lowest Effect Level. These locations are the upper reach of the St. Clair River, the main stem and mouth of the Clinton River, Big Beaver Creek, Red Run, and Paint Creek. Maps also indicated areas that routinely contained sediment contaminant concentrations that were greater than the Probable Effect Concentration or Severe Effect Level. These locations include the upper reach of the St. Clair River, the main stem and mouth of the Clinton River, Red Run, within direct tributaries along Lake St. Clair and in marinas within the lake, and within the Clinton River headwaters in Oakland County.Although most samples collected within Lake St. Clair were from sites adjacent to the mouths of its tributaries, samples analyzed for trace-element concentrations were collected throughout the lake. The distribution of trace-element concentrations corresponded well with the results of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of flow patterns from the Clinton River into Lake St. Clair. The model was developed independent from the bed sediment analysis described in this report; yet it showed a zone of deposition for outflow from the Clinton River into Lake St. Clair that corresponded well with the spatial distribution of trace-element concentrations. This zone runs along the western shoreline of Lake St. Clair from L'Anse Creuse Bay to St. Clair Shores, Michigan and is reflected in the samples analyzed for mercury and cadmium.Statistical summaries of the concentration data are presented for most contaminants, and selected statistics are compared to effects-based sediment-quality guidelines. Summaries were not computed for dieldrin, chlordane, hexachlorocyclohexane, lindane, and mirex because insufficient data are available for these contaminants. A statistical comparison showed that the median concentration for hexachlorobenzene, anthracene, benz[a]anthracene, chrysene, and pyrene are greater than the Threshold Effect Concentration or Lowest Effect Level.Probable Effect Concentration Quotients provide a mechanism for comparing the concentrations of contaminant mixtures against effects-based biota data. Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were calculated for individual samples and compared to effects-based toxicity ranges. The toxicity-range categories used in this study were nontoxic (quotients < 0.5) and toxic (quotients > 0.5). Of the 546 individual samples for which Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were calculated, 469 (86 percent) were categorized as being nontoxic and 77 (14 percent) were categorized as being toxic. Bed-sediment samples with toxic Probable Effect Concentration Quotients were collected from Paint Creek, Galloway Creek, the main stem of the Clinton River, Big Beaver Creek, Red Run, Clinton River towards the mouth, Lake St. Clair along the western shore, and the St. Clair River near Sarnia.

Water level dynamics in wetlands and nesting success of Black Terns in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilbert, A.T.; Servello, F.A.

2005-01-01

The Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) nests in freshwater wetlands that are prone to water level fluctuations, and nest losses to flooding are common. We examined temporal patterns in water levels at six sites with Black Tern colonies in Maine and determined probabilities of flood events and associated nest loss at Douglas Pond, the location of the largest breeding colony. Daily precipitation data from weather stations and water flow data from a flow gauge below Douglas Pond were obtained for 1960-1999. Information on nest losses from three floods at Douglas Pond in 1997-1999 were used to characterize small (6% nest loss), medium (56% nest loss) and large (94% nest loss) flood events, and we calculated probabilities of these three levels of flooding occurring at Douglas Pond using historic water levels data. Water levels generally decreased gradually during the nesting season at colony sites, except at Douglas Pond where water levels fluctuated substantially in response to rain events. Annual probabilities of small, medium, and large flood events were 68%, 35%, and 13% for nests initiated during 23 May-12 July, with similar probabilities for early (23 May-12 June) and late (13 June-12 July) periods. An index of potential nest loss indicated that medium floods at Douglas Pond had the greatest potential effect on nest success because they occurred relatively frequently and inundated large proportions of nests. Nest losses at other colonies were estimated to be approximately 30% of those at Douglas Pond. Nest losses to flooding appear to be common for the Black Tern in Maine and related to spring precipitation patterns, but ultimate effects on breeding productivity are uncertain.

Mediating role of activity level in the depressive realism effect.

PubMed

Blanco, Fernando; Matute, Helena; A Vadillo, Miguel

2012-01-01

Several classic studies have concluded that the accuracy of identifying uncontrollable situations depends heavily on depressive mood. Nondepressed participants tend to exhibit an optimistic illusion of control, whereas depressed participants tend to better detect a lack of control. Recently, we suggested that the different activity levels (measured as the probability of responding during a contingency learning task) exhibited by depressed and nondepressed individuals is partly responsible for this effect. The two studies presented in this paper provide further support for this mediational hypothesis, in which mood is the distal cause of the illusion of control operating through activity level, the proximal cause. In Study 1, the probability of responding, P(R), was found to be a mediator variable between the depressive symptoms and the judgments of control. In Study 2, we intervened directly on the mediator variable: The P(R) for both depressed and nondepressed participants was manipulated through instructions. Our results confirm that P(R) manipulation produced differences in the participants' perceptions of uncontrollability. Importantly, the intervention on the mediator variable cancelled the effect of the distal cause; the participants' judgments of control were no longer mood dependent when the P(R) was manipulated. This result supports the hypothesis that the so-called depressive realism effect is actually mediated by the probability of responding.

PROJECTED POPULATION-LEVEL EFFECTS OF THIOBENCARB EXPOSURE ON THE MYSID, AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA, AND EXTINCTION PROBABILITY IN A CONCENTRATION-DECAY EXPOSURE SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Population-level effects of the mysid, Americamysis bahia, exposed to varying thiobencarb concentrations were estimated using stage-structured matrix models. A deterministic density-independent matrix model estimated the decrease in population growth rate, l, with increas...

Realized detection and capture probabilities for giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) using modified floating aquatic funnel traps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Skalos, Shannon M.; Casazza, Michael L.; Wylie, Glenn D.

2015-01-01

Detection and capture probabilities for giant gartersnakes (Thamnophis gigas) are very low, and successfully evaluating the effects of variables or experimental treatments on giant gartersnake populations will require greater detection and capture probabilities than those that had been achieved with standard trap designs. Previous research identified important trap modifications that can increase the probability of snakes entering traps and help prevent the escape of captured snakes. The purpose of this study was to quantify detection and capture probabilities obtained using the most successful modification to commercially available traps to date (2015), and examine the ability of realized detection and capture probabilities to achieve benchmark levels of precision in occupancy and capture-mark-recapture studies.

Theoretical Study of Energy Levels and Transition Probabilities of Boron Atom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian Yi, Zhang; Neng Wu, Zheng

2009-08-01

Full Text PDF Though the electrons configuration for boron atom is simple and boron atom has long been of interest for many researchers, the theoretical studies for properties of BI are not systematic, there are only few results reported on energy levels of high excited states of boron, and transition measurements are generally restricted to transitions involving ground states and low excited states without considering fine structure effects, provided only multiplet results, values for transitions between high excited states are seldom performed. In this article, by using the scheme of the weakest bound electron potential model theory calculations for energy levels of five series are performed and with the same method we give the transition probabilities between excited states with considering fine structure effects. The comprehensive set of calculations attempted in this paper could be of some value to workers in the field because of the lack of published calculations for the BI systems. The perturbations coming from foreign perturbers are taken into account in studying the energy levels. Good agreement between our results and the accepted values taken from NIST has been obtained. We also reported some values of energy levels and transition probabilities not existing on the NIST data bases.

Probability shapes perceptual precision: A study in orientation estimation.

PubMed

Jabar, Syaheed B; Anderson, Britt

2015-12-01

Probability is known to affect perceptual estimations, but an understanding of mechanisms is lacking. Moving beyond binary classification tasks, we had naive participants report the orientation of briefly viewed gratings where we systematically manipulated contingent probability. Participants rapidly developed faster and more precise estimations for high-probability tilts. The shapes of their error distributions, as indexed by a kurtosis measure, also showed a distortion from Gaussian. This kurtosis metric was robust, capturing probability effects that were graded, contextual, and varying as a function of stimulus orientation. Our data can be understood as a probability-induced reduction in the variability or "shape" of estimation errors, as would be expected if probability affects the perceptual representations. As probability manipulations are an implicit component of many endogenous cuing paradigms, changes at the perceptual level could account for changes in performance that might have traditionally been ascribed to "attention." (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Statistics of peak overpressure and shock steepness for linear and nonlinear N-wave propagation in a kinematic turbulence.

PubMed

Yuldashev, Petr V; Ollivier, Sébastien; Karzova, Maria M; Khokhlova, Vera A; Blanc-Benon, Philippe

2017-12-01

Linear and nonlinear propagation of high amplitude acoustic pulses through a turbulent layer in air is investigated using a two-dimensional KZK-type (Khokhlov-Zabolotskaya-Kuznetsov) equation. Initial waves are symmetrical N-waves with shock fronts of finite width. A modified von Kármán spectrum model is used to generate random wind velocity fluctuations associated with the turbulence. Physical parameters in simulations correspond to previous laboratory scale experiments where N-waves with 1.4 cm wavelength propagated through a turbulence layer with the outer scale of about 16 cm. Mean value and standard deviation of peak overpressure and shock steepness, as well as cumulative probabilities to observe amplified peak overpressure and shock steepness, are analyzed. Nonlinear propagation effects are shown to enhance pressure level in random foci for moderate initial amplitudes of N-waves thus increasing the probability to observe highly peaked waveforms. Saturation of the pressure level is observed for stronger nonlinear effects. It is shown that in the linear propagation regime, the turbulence mainly leads to the smearing of shock fronts, thus decreasing the probability to observe high values of steepness, whereas nonlinear effects dramatically increase the probability to observe steep shocks.

Health Professionals Prefer to Communicate Risk-Related Numerical Information Using "1-in-X" Ratios.

PubMed

Sirota, Miroslav; Juanchich, Marie; Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Walasek, Lukasz; Bhatia, Sudeep

2018-04-01

Previous research has shown that format effects, such as the "1-in-X" effect-whereby "1-in-X" ratios lead to a higher perceived probability than "N-in-N*X" ratios-alter perceptions of medical probabilities. We do not know, however, how prevalent this effect is in practice; i.e., how often health professionals use the "1-in-X" ratio. We assembled 4 different sources of evidence, involving experimental work and corpus studies, to examine the use of "1-in-X" and other numerical formats quantifying probability. Our results revealed that the use of the "1-in-X" ratio is prevalent and that health professionals prefer this format compared with other numerical formats (i.e., the "N-in-N*X", %, and decimal formats). In Study 1, UK family physicians preferred to communicate prenatal risk using a "1-in-X" ratio (80.4%, n = 131) across different risk levels and regardless of patients' numeracy levels. In Study 2, a sample from the UK adult population ( n = 203) reported that most GPs (60.6%) preferred to use "1-in-X" ratios compared with other formats. In Study 3, "1-in-X" ratios were the most commonly used format in a set of randomly sampled drug leaflets describing the risk of side effects (100%, n = 94). In Study 4, the "1-in-X" format was the most commonly used numerical expression of medical probabilities or frequencies on the UK's NHS website (45.7%, n = 2,469 sentences). The prevalent use of "1-in-X" ratios magnifies the chances of increased subjective probability. Further research should establish clinical significance of the "1-in-X" effect.

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

2004-01-01

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

COUNTRY-LEVEL SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS ASSOCIATED WITH SURVIVAL PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A CENTENARIAN AMONG OLDER EUROPEAN ADULTS: GENDER INEQUALITY, MALE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND PROPORTIONS OF WOMEN IN PARLIAMENTS.

PubMed

Kim, Jong In; Kim, Gukbin

2017-03-01

This study confirms an association between survival probability of becoming a centenarian (SPBC) for those aged 65 to 69 and country-level socioeconomic indicators in Europe: the gender inequality index (GII), male labour force participation (MLP) rates and proportions of seats held by women in national parliaments (PWP). The analysis was based on SPBC data from 34 countries obtained from the United Nations (UN). Country-level socioeconomic indicator data were obtained from the UN and World Bank databases. The associations between socioeconomic indicators and SPBC were assessed using correlation coefficients and multivariate regression models. The findings show significant correlations between the SPBC for women and men aged 65 to 69 and country-level socioeconomic indicators: GII (r=-0.674, p=0.001), MLP (r=0.514, p=0.002) and PWP (r=0.498, p=0.003). The SPBC predictors for women and men were lower GIIs and higher MLP and PWP (R 2=0.508, p=0.001). Country-level socioeconomic indicators appear to have an important effect on the probability of becoming a centenarian in European adults aged 65 to 69. Country-level gender equality policies in European counties may decrease the risk of unhealthy old age and increase longevity in elders through greater national gender equality; disparities in GII and other country-level socioeconomic indicators impact longevity probability. National longevity strategies should target country-level gender inequality.

Nuclear-effects model embedded stochastically in simulation (NEMESIS) summary report. Technical paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Youngren, M.A.

1989-11-01

An analytic probability model of tactical nuclear warfare in the theater is presented in this paper. The model addresses major problems associated with representing nuclear warfare in the theater. Current theater representations of a potential nuclear battlefield are developed in context of low-resolution, theater-level models or scenarios. These models or scenarios provide insufficient resolution in time and space for modeling a nuclear exchange. The model presented in this paper handles the spatial uncertainty in potentially targeted unit locations by proposing two-dimensional multivariate probability models for the actual and perceived locations of units subordinate to the major (division-level) units represented inmore » theater scenarios. The temporal uncertainty in the activities of interest represented in our theater-level Force Evaluation Model (FORCEM) is handled through probability models of the acquisition and movement of potential nuclear target units.« less

Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartram, Bart W.; Vaughan, Frank R.; Englehart, Richard W., Dr.

1991-01-01

The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value.

Ecological risk assessment of a coastal zone in Southern Vietnam: Spatial distribution and content of heavy metals in water and surface sediments of the Thi Vai Estuary and Can Gio Mangrove Forest.

PubMed

Costa-Böddeker, Sandra; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Thuyên, Lê Xuân; Huy, Hoang Duc; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Richter, Otto; Schwalb, Antje

2017-01-30

Enrichment of heavy metals was assessed in the Thi Vai Estuary and in the Can Gio Mangrove Forest (SE, Vietnam). Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn contents in water and in sediments were measured. Total organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and C/N ratios were determined. Cu and Cr values were higher than threshold effect level of toxicity, while Ni exceeded probable effect level, indicating the risk of probable toxicity effects. Enrichment factors (EF), contamination factor (CF) and Geo-accumulation index (I-geo) were determined. CF reveals moderate to considerable pollution with Cr and Ni. EF suggests anthropogenic sources of Cr, Cu and Ni. I-geo indicates low contamination with Co, Cu and Zn and moderate contamination with Cr and Ni. Overall metal contents were lower than expected for this highly industrialized region, probably due to dilution, suggesting that erosion rates and hydrodynamics may also play a role in metal contents distribution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

PubMed

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Environmental contaminants in tissues, foods, and feces of California condors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiemeyer, Stanley N.; Krynitsky, A.J.; Wilbur, S.R.; Wilbur, Sanford R.; Jackson, Jerome A.

1983-01-01

Two wild California Condors contained moderate to high levels of DDE in their tissues. The levels found could be high enough to cause reproductive problems in adult condors, if the assumption is made that condors are as susceptible to DDE as many other species of birds of prey. Other organochlorines occurred at low levels and probably were not high enough to cause deleterious effects. Metal residues in tissues of one bird were generally low except for copper in liver and lead in bone. Normal background levels of these metals in cathartids are unknown, making interpretation of the results difficult. Organochlorine residues in biopsy samples from a captive condor were low and probably would not have an adverse effect on reproduction if the bird were used for captive breeding. Organochlorines were not detected in food items used in the supplemental feeding program, and mercury and lead residues in these items were generally low. Information is needed on current contaminant levels in natural condor prey throughout the condor range.

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan.

PubMed

Oskorouchi, Hamid Reza; Nie, Peng; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

2018-01-01

This study uses biomarker information from the 2013 National Nutrition Survey Afghanistan and satellite precipitation driven modeling results from the Global Flood Monitoring System to analyze how floods affect the probability of anemia in Afghan women of reproductive age (15-49). In addition to establishing a causal relation between the two by exploiting the quasi-random variation of floods in different districts and periods, the analysis demonstrates that floods have a significant positive effect on the probability of anemia through two possible transmission mechanisms. The first is a significant effect on inflammation, probably related to water borne diseases carried by unsafe drinking water, and the second is a significant negative effect on retinol concentrations. Because the effect of floods on anemia remains significant even after we control for anemia's most common causes, we argue that the condition may also be affected by elevated levels of psychological stress.

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study uses biomarker information from the 2013 National Nutrition Survey Afghanistan and satellite precipitation driven modeling results from the Global Flood Monitoring System to analyze how floods affect the probability of anemia in Afghan women of reproductive age (15–49). In addition to establishing a causal relation between the two by exploiting the quasi-random variation of floods in different districts and periods, the analysis demonstrates that floods have a significant positive effect on the probability of anemia through two possible transmission mechanisms. The first is a significant effect on inflammation, probably related to water borne diseases carried by unsafe drinking water, and the second is a significant negative effect on retinol concentrations. Because the effect of floods on anemia remains significant even after we control for anemia’s most common causes, we argue that the condition may also be affected by elevated levels of psychological stress. PMID:29425219

Botulinum toxin treatment of pain syndromes -an evidence based review.

PubMed

Safarpour, Yasaman; Jabbari, Bahman

2018-06-01

This review evaluates the existing level of evidence for efficacy of BoNTs in different pain syndromes using the recommended efficacy criteria from the Assessment and Therapeutic Subcommittee of the American Academy of Neurology. There is a level A evidence (effective) for BoNT therapy in post-herpetic neuralgia, trigeminal neuralgia, and posttraumatic neuralgia. There is a level B evidence (probably effective) for diabetic neuropathy, plantar fasciitis, piriformis syndrome, pain associated with total knee arthroplasty, male pelvic pain syndrome, chronic low back pain, male pelvic pain, and neuropathic pain secondary to traumatic spinal cord injury. BoNTs are possibly effective (Level C -one class II study) for female pelvic pain, painful knee osteoarthritis, post-operative pain in children with cerebral palsy after adductor release surgery, anterior knee pain with vastus lateralis imbalance. There is a level B evidence (one class I study) that BoNT treatment is probably ineffective in carpal tunnel syndrome. For myofascial pain syndrome, the level of evidence is U (undetermined) due to contradicting results. More high quality (Class I) studies and studies with different types of BoNTs are needed for better understanding of the role of BoNTs in pain syndromes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect Sizes and their Intervals: The Two-Level Repeated Measures Case

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

2005-01-01

Probability coverage for eight different confidence intervals (CIs) of measures of effect size (ES) in a two-level repeated measures design was investigated. The CIs and measures of ES differed with regard to whether they used least squares or robust estimates of central tendency and variability, whether the end critical points of the interval…

Assessing the chances of success: naïve statistics versus kind experience.

PubMed

Hogarth, Robin M; Mukherjee, Kanchan; Soyer, Emre

2013-01-01

Additive integration of information is ubiquitous in judgment and has been shown to be effective even when multiplicative rules of probability theory are prescribed. We explore the generality of these findings in the context of estimating probabilities of success in contests. We first define a normative model of these probabilities that takes account of relative skill levels in contests where only a limited number of entrants can win. We then report 4 experiments using a scenario about a competition. Experiments 1 and 2 both elicited judgments of probabilities, and, although participants' responses demonstrated considerable variability, their mean judgments provide a good fit to a simple linear model. Experiment 3 explored choices. Most participants entered most contests and showed little awareness of appropriate probabilities. Experiment 4 investigated effects of providing aids to calculate probabilities, specifically, access to expert advice and 2 simulation tools. With these aids, estimates were accurate and decisions varied appropriately with economic consequences. We discuss implications by considering when additive decision rules are dysfunctional, the interpretation of overconfidence based on contest-entry behavior, and the use of aids to help people make better decisions.

Framing of outcome and probability of recurrence: breast cancer patients' choice of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in hypothetical patient scenarios.

PubMed

Zimmermann, C; Baldo, C; Molino, A

2000-03-01

To examine the effects of framing of outcome and probabilities of cancer occurrence on the treatment preference which breast cancer patients indicate for hypothetical patient scenarios. A modified version of the Decision Board Instrument (Levine et al. 1992) was administered to 35 breast cancer patients with past ACT experience. Patients expressed their choice regarding ACT for six scenarios which were characterized by either negative or positive framing of outcome and by one of the three levels of probability of recurrence (high, medium, low). The framing had no influence on ACT choices over all three probability levels. The majority chose ACT for high and medium risk and one third switched from ACT to No ACT in the low-risk condition. This switch was statistically significant. Hypothetical treatment decisions against ACT occur only when the probability of recurrence is low and the benefit of ACT is small. This finding for patients with past experience of ACT is similar to those reported for other oncological patient groups still in treatment.

Land use and land cover classification for rural residential areas in China using soft-probability cascading of multifeatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bin; Liu, Yueyan; Zhang, Zuyu; Shen, Yonglin

2017-10-01

A multifeature soft-probability cascading scheme to solve the problem of land use and land cover (LULC) classification using high-spatial-resolution images to map rural residential areas in China is proposed. The proposed method is used to build midlevel LULC features. Local features are frequently considered as low-level feature descriptors in a midlevel feature learning method. However, spectral and textural features, which are very effective low-level features, are neglected. The acquisition of the dictionary of sparse coding is unsupervised, and this phenomenon reduces the discriminative power of the midlevel feature. Thus, we propose to learn supervised features based on sparse coding, a support vector machine (SVM) classifier, and a conditional random field (CRF) model to utilize the different effective low-level features and improve the discriminability of midlevel feature descriptors. First, three kinds of typical low-level features, namely, dense scale-invariant feature transform, gray-level co-occurrence matrix, and spectral features, are extracted separately. Second, combined with sparse coding and the SVM classifier, the probabilities of the different LULC classes are inferred to build supervised feature descriptors. Finally, the CRF model, which consists of two parts: unary potential and pairwise potential, is employed to construct an LULC classification map. Experimental results show that the proposed classification scheme can achieve impressive performance when the total accuracy reached about 87%.

Safe days in space with acceptable uncertainty from space radiation exposure.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A; Alp, Murat; Rowedder, Blake; Kim, Myung-Hee Y

2015-04-01

The prediction of the risks of cancer and other late effects from space radiation exposure carries large uncertainties mostly due to the lack of information on the risks from high charge and energy (HZE) particles and other high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. In our recent work new methods were used to consider NASA's requirement to protect against the acceptable risk of no more than 3% probability of cancer fatality estimated at the 95% confidence level. Because it is not possible that a zero-level of uncertainty could be achieved, we suggest that an acceptable uncertainty level should be defined in relationship to a probability distribution function (PDF) that only suffers from modest skewness with higher uncertainty allowed for a normal PDF. In this paper, we evaluate PDFs and the number or "safe days" in space, which are defined as the mission length where risk limits are not exceeded, for several mission scenarios at different acceptable levels of uncertainty. In addition, we briefly discuss several important issues in risk assessment including non-cancer effects, the distinct tumor spectra and lethality found in animal experiments for HZE particles compared to background or low LET radiation associated tumors, and the possibility of non-targeted effects (NTE) modifying low dose responses and increasing relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for tumor induction. Each of these issues skew uncertainty distributions to higher fatality probabilities with the potential to increase central values of risk estimates in the future. Therefore they will require significant research efforts to support space exploration within acceptable levels of risk and uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR). Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Aperture Averaging and Receiver Diversity Techniques for Free Space Optical Links in Presence of Turbulence and Various Weather Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaur, Prabhmandeep; Jain, Virander Kumar; Kar, Subrat

2014-12-01

In this paper, we investigate the performance of a Free Space Optic (FSO) link considering the impairments caused by the presence of various weather conditions such as very clear air, drizzle, haze, fog, etc., and turbulence in the atmosphere. Analytic expression for the outage probability is derived using the gamma-gamma distribution for turbulence and accounting the effect of weather conditions using the Beer-Lambert's law. The effect of receiver diversity schemes using aperture averaging and array receivers on the outage probability is studied and compared. As the aperture diameter is increased, the outage probability decreases irrespective of the turbulence strength (weak, moderate and strong) and weather conditions. Similar effects are observed when the number of direct detection receivers in the array are increased. However, it is seen that as the desired level of performance in terms of the outage probability decreases, array receiver becomes the preferred choice as compared to the receiver with aperture averaging.

A stochastic model for the probability of malaria extinction by mass drug administration.

PubMed

Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Chitnis, Nakul; Pothin, Emilie; Smith, Thomas A

2017-09-18

Mass drug administration (MDA) has been proposed as an intervention to achieve local extinction of malaria. Although its effect on the reproduction number is short lived, extinction may subsequently occur in a small population due to stochastic fluctuations. This paper examines how the probability of stochastic extinction depends on population size, MDA coverage and the reproduction number under control, R c . A simple compartmental model is developed which is used to compute the probability of extinction using probability generating functions. The expected time to extinction in small populations after MDA for various scenarios in this model is calculated analytically. The results indicate that mass drug administration (Firstly, R c must be sustained at R c  < 1.2 to avoid the rapid re-establishment of infections in the population. Secondly, the MDA must produce effective cure rates of >95% to have a non-negligible probability of successful elimination. Stochastic fluctuations only significantly affect the probability of extinction in populations of about 1000 individuals or less. The expected time to extinction via stochastic fluctuation is less than 10 years only in populations less than about 150 individuals. Clustering of secondary infections and of MDA distribution both contribute positively to the potential probability of success, indicating that MDA would most effectively be administered at the household level. There are very limited circumstances in which MDA will lead to local malaria elimination with a substantial probability.

Summary of evidence-based guideline update: Prevention of stroke in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation

PubMed Central

Culebras, Antonio; Messé, Steven R.; Chaturvedi, Seemant; Kase, Carlos S.; Gronseth, Gary

2014-01-01

Objective: To update the 1998 American Academy of Neurology practice parameter on stroke prevention in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). How often do various technologies identify previously undetected NVAF? Which therapies reduce ischemic stroke risk with the least risk of hemorrhage, including intracranial hemorrhage? The complete guideline on which this summary is based is available as an online data supplement to this article. Methods: Systematic literature review; modified Delphi process recommendation formulation. Major conclusions: In patients with recent cryptogenic stroke, cardiac rhythm monitoring probably detects occult NVAF. In patients with NVAF, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban are probably at least as effective as warfarin in preventing stroke and have a lower risk of intracranial hemorrhage. Triflusal plus acenocoumarol is likely more effective than acenocoumarol alone in reducing stroke risk. Clopidogrel plus aspirin is probably less effective than warfarin in preventing stroke and has a lower risk of intracranial bleeding. Clopidogrel plus aspirin as compared with aspirin alone probably reduces stroke risk but increases the risk of major hemorrhage. Apixaban is likely more effective than aspirin for decreasing stroke risk and has a bleeding risk similar to that of aspirin. Major recommendations: Clinicians might obtain outpatient cardiac rhythm studies in patients with cryptogenic stroke to identify patients with occult NVAF (Level C) and should routinely offer anticoagulation to patients with NVAF and a history of TIA/stroke (Level B). Specific patient considerations will inform anticoagulant selection in patients with NVAF judged to need anticoagulation. PMID:24566225

Brand-specific cigarette advertising in magazines in relation to youth and young adult readership, 1986-1994.

PubMed

King, C; Siegel, M

1999-12-01

This study investigated whether cigarette brands popular among youths are preferentially advertised in magazines with high youth readerships. Using a probit regression model of 1986-1994 data, we estimated the effect of the percentage of youth (ages 12-17) readers in a magazine on the probability of a cigarette brand advertising in that magazine and compared these effects for youth cigarette brands (those smoked by more than 2.5% of 10-15-year-old smokers) and adult cigarette brands. We controlled for the percentages of young adult (ages 18-24), female, black, and Hispanic readers. Holding all other variables constant at their sample means, the probability of an adult brand advertising in a magazine decreased from 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67-0.85) at a youth readership level of 2% (the lowest level of percentage youth readership in the sample magazines) to 0.46 (95% CI, 0.29-0.64) at a youth readership level of 47% (the highest level in the sample magazines). In contrast, the probability of a youth brand advertising in a magazine increased from 0.63 (95% CI, 0.51-0.75) at a youth readership level of 2% to 0.84 (95% CI, 0.72-0.96) at a youth readership level of 47%. It was concluded that, over nearly a decade, cigarette brands popular among youths were more likely than adult brands to advertise in magazines with high youth readerships.

Cannabis use in children with individualized risk profiles: Predicting the effect of universal prevention intervention.

PubMed

Miovský, Michal; Vonkova, Hana; Čablová, Lenka; Gabrhelík, Roman

2015-11-01

To study the effect of a universal prevention intervention targeting cannabis use in individual children with different risk profiles. A school-based randomized controlled prevention trial was conducted over a period of 33 months (n=1874 sixth-graders, baseline mean age 11.82). We used a two-level random intercept logistic model for panel data to predict the probabilities of cannabis use for each child. Specifically, we used eight risk/protective factors to characterize each child and then predicted two probabilities of cannabis use for each child if the child had the intervention or not. Using the two probabilities, we calculated the absolute and relative effect of the intervention for each child. According to the two probabilities, we also divided the sample into a low-risk group (the quarter of the children with the lowest probabilities), a moderate-risk group, and a high-risk group (the quarter of the children with the highest probabilities) and showed the average effect of the intervention on these groups. The differences between the intervention group and the control group were statistically significant in each risk group. The average predicted probabilities of cannabis use for a child from the low-risk group were 4.3% if the child had the intervention and 6.53% if no intervention was provided. The corresponding probabilities for a child from the moderate-risk group were 10.91% and 15.34% and for a child from the high-risk group 25.51% and 32.61%. School grades, thoughts of hurting oneself, and breaking the rules were the three most important factors distinguishing high-risk and low-risk children. We predicted the effect of the intervention on individual children, characterized by their risk/protective factors. The predicted absolute effect and relative effect of any intervention for any selected risk/protective profile of a given child may be utilized in both prevention practice and research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing metapopulation concepts: effects of patch characteristics and neighborhood occupancy on the dynamics of an endangered lagomorph

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Hughes, Phillip T.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.

2014-01-01

Metapopulation ecology is a field that is richer in theory than in empirical results. Many existing empirical studies use an incidence function approach based on spatial patterns and key assumptions about extinction and colonization rates. Here we recast these assumptions as hypotheses to be tested using 18 years of historic detection survey data combined with four years of data from a new monitoring program for the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. We developed a new model to estimate probabilities of local extinction and colonization in the presence of nondetection, while accounting for estimated occupancy levels of neighboring patches. We used model selection to identify important drivers of population turnover and estimate the effective neighborhood size for this system. Several key relationships related to patch size and isolation that are often assumed in metapopulation models were supported: patch size was negatively related to the probability of extinction and positively related to colonization, and estimated occupancy of neighboring patches was positively related to colonization and negatively related to extinction probabilities. This latter relationship suggested the existence of rescue effects. In our study system, we inferred that coastal patches experienced higher probabilities of extinction and colonization than interior patches. Interior patches exhibited higher occupancy probabilities and may serve as refugia, permitting colonization of coastal patches following disturbances such as hurricanes and storm surges. Our modeling approach should be useful for incorporating neighbor occupancy into future metapopulation analyses and in dealing with other historic occupancy surveys that may not include the recommended levels of sampling replication.

Probabilistic assessment of safe groundwater utilization in farmed fish ponds of blackfoot disease hyperendemic areas in terms of the regulation of arsenic concentrations.

PubMed

Jang, Cheng-Shin

2008-03-15

This work probabilistically explored a safe utilization ratio (UR) of groundwater in fish ponds located in blackfoot disease hyperendemic areas in terms of the regulation of arsenic (As) concentrations. Sequential indicator simulation was used to reproduce As concentrations in groundwater and to propagate their uncertainty. Corresponding URs of groundwater were obtained from the relationship of mass balance between reproduced As concentrations in groundwater and the As regulation in farmed fish ponds. Three levels were adopted to evaluate the UR - UR> or =0.5, 0.5>UR> or =0.1 and UR<0.1. The high probability of the UR> or =0.5 level presents in the northern and southern regions where groundwater can be a major water source. The high probability of the 0.5>UR> or =0.1 level is mainly distributed in the central-coastal, central-eastern and southeastern regions where groundwater should be considered as a subordinate water source. Being available, extra surface water has priority over providing aquacultural needs of the regions with the high probability of the UR> or =0.5 and 0.5>UR> or =0.1 levels. In the regions with the high probability of the UR<0.1 level, in the central-coastal and southwestern regions, groundwater utilization should be reduced substantially or even prohibited completely for no adverse effects on human health.

Decision analysis with approximate probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, Thomas

1992-01-01

This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.

Skier triggering of backcountry avalanches with skilled route selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinickas, Alexandra; Haegeli, Pascal; Jamieson, Bruce

2015-04-01

Jamieson (2009) provided numerical estimates for the baseline probabilities of triggering an avalanche by a backcountry skier making fresh tracks without skilled route selection as a function of the North American avalanche danger scale (i.e., hazard levels Low, Moderate, Considerable, High and Extreme). Using the results of an expert survey, he showed that triggering probabilities while skiing directly up, down or across a trigger zone without skilled route selection increase roughly by a factor of 10 with each step of the North American avalanche danger scale (i.e. hazard level). The objective of the present study is to examine the effect of skilled route selection on the relationship between triggering probability and hazard level. To assess the effect of skilled route selection on triggering probability by hazard level, we analysed avalanche hazard assessments as well as reports of skiing activity and triggering of avalanches from 11 Canadian helicopter and snowcat operations during two winters (2012-13 and 2013-14). These reports were submitted to the daily information exchange among Canadian avalanche safety operations, and reflect professional decision-making and route selection practices of guides leading groups of skiers. We selected all skier-controlled or accidentally triggered avalanches with a destructive size greater than size 1 according to the Canadian avalanche size classification, triggered by any member of a guided group (guide or guest). These operations forecast the avalanche hazard daily for each of three elevation bands: alpine, treeline and below treeline. In contrast to the 2009 study, an exposure was defined as a group skiing within any one of the three elevation bands, and consequently within a hazard rating, for the day (~4,300 ratings over two winters). For example, a group that skied below treeline (rated Moderate) and treeline (rated Considerable) in one day, would receive one count for exposure to Moderate hazard, and one count for exposure to Considerable hazard. While the absolute values for triggering probability cannot be compared to the 2009 study because of different definitions of exposure, our preliminary results suggest that with skilled route selection the triggering probability is similar all hazard levels, except for extreme for which there are few exposures. This means that the guiding teams of backcountry skiing operations effectively control the hazard from triggering avalanches with skilled route selection. Groups were exposed relatively evenly to Low hazard (1275 times or 29% of total exposure), Moderate hazard (1450 times or 33 %) and Considerable hazard (1215 times or 28 %). At higher levels, the exposure reduced to roughly 380 times (9 % of total exposure) to High hazard, and only 13 times (0.3 %) to Extreme hazard. We assess the sensitivity of the results to some of our key assumptions.

How well do elderly people cope with uncertainty in a learning task?

PubMed

Chasseigne, G; Grau, S; Mullet, E; Cama, V

1999-11-01

The relation between age, task complexity and learning performance in a Multiple Cue Probability Learning task was studied by systematically varying the level of uncertainty present in the task, keeping constant the direction of relationships. Four age groups were constituted: young adults (mean age = 21), middle-aged adults (45), elderly people (69) and very elderly people (81). Five uncertainty levels were considered: predictability = 0.96, 0.80, 0.64, 0.48, and 0.32. All relationships involved were direct ones. A strong effect of uncertainty on 'control', a measure of the subject's consistency with respect to a linear model, was found. This effect was essentially a linear one. To each decrement in predictability of the task corresponded an equal decrement in participants' level of control. This level of decrement was the same, regardless of the age of the participant. It can be concluded that elderly people cope with uncertainty in probability learning tasks as well as young adults.

Factors affecting the probability of first year medical student dropout in the UK: a logistic analysis for the intake cohorts of 1980-92.

PubMed

Arulampalam, Wiji; Naylor, Robin; Smith, Jeremy

2004-05-01

In the context of the 1997 Report of the Medical Workforce Standing Advisory Committee, it is important that we develop an understanding of the factors influencing medical school retention rates. To analyse the determinants of the probability that an individual medical student will drop out of medical school during their first year of study. Binomial and multinomial logistic regression analysis of individual-level administrative data on 51 810 students in 21 medical schools in the UK for the intake cohorts of 1980-92 was performed. The overall average first year dropout rate over the period 1980-92 was calculated to be 3.8%. We found that the probability that a student would drop out of medical school during their first year of study was influenced significantly by both the subjects studied at A-level and by the scores achieved. For example, achieving 1 grade higher in biology, chemistry or physics reduced the dropout probability by 0.38% points, equivalent to a fall of 10%. We also found that males were about 8% more likely to drop out than females. The medical school attended also had a significant effect on the estimated dropout probability. Indicators of both the social class and the previous school background of the student were largely insignificant. Policies aimed at increasing the size of the medical student intake in the UK and of widening access to students from non-traditional backgrounds should be informed by evidence that student dropout probabilities are sensitive to measures of A-level attainment, such as subject studied and scores achieved. If traditional entry requirements or standards are relaxed, then this is likely to have detrimental effects on medical schools' retention rates unless accompanied by appropriate measures such as focussed student support.

Cost-effectiveness of cervical spine clearance interventions with litigation and long-term-care implications in obtunded adult patients following blunt injury.

PubMed

Ertel, Audrey E; Robinson, Bryce R H; Eckman, Mark H

2016-11-01

Recent guidelines from the Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma conditionally recommend cervical collar removal after a negative cervical computed tomography in obtunded adult blunt trauma patients. Although the rates of missed injury are extremely low, the impact of chronic care costs and litigation upon decision making remains unclear. We hypothesize that the cost-effectiveness of strategies that include additional imaging may contradict current guidelines. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed for a base-case 40-year-old, obtunded man with a negative computed tomography. Strategies compared included adjunct imaging with cervical magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), collar maintenance for 6 weeks, or removal. Data on the probability for long-term collar complications, spine injury, imaging costs, complications associated with MRI, acute and chronic care, and litigation were obtained from published and Medicare data. Outcomes were expressed as 2014 US dollars and quality-adjusted life-years. Collar removal was more effective and less costly than collar use or MRI (19.99 vs. 19.35 vs. 18.70 quality-adjusted life-years; $675,359 vs. $685,546 vs. $685,848) in the base-case analysis. When the probability of missed cervical injury was greater than 0.04 adjunct imaging with MRI dominated, however, collar removal remained cost-effective until the probability of missed injury exceeded 0.113 at which point collar removal exceeded the $50,000 threshold. Collar removal remained the most cost-effective approach until the probability of complications from collar use was reduced to less than 0.009, at which point collar maintenance became the most cost-effective strategy. Early collar removal dominates all strategies until the risk of complications from MRI positioning is reduced to 0.03 and remained cost-effective even when the probability of complication was reduced to 0. Early collar removal in obtunded adult blunt trauma patients appears to be the most effective and least costly strategy for cervical clearance based on the current literature available. Economic evaluation, level III; therapeutic study, level IV.

Salient in space, salient in time: Fixation probability predicts fixation duration during natural scene viewing.

PubMed

Einhäuser, Wolfgang; Nuthmann, Antje

2016-09-01

During natural scene viewing, humans typically attend and fixate selected locations for about 200-400 ms. Two variables characterize such "overt" attention: the probability of a location being fixated, and the fixation's duration. Both variables have been widely researched, but little is known about their relation. We use a two-step approach to investigate the relation between fixation probability and duration. In the first step, we use a large corpus of fixation data. We demonstrate that fixation probability (empirical salience) predicts fixation duration across different observers and tasks. Linear mixed-effects modeling shows that this relation is explained neither by joint dependencies on simple image features (luminance, contrast, edge density) nor by spatial biases (central bias). In the second step, we experimentally manipulate some of these features. We find that fixation probability from the corpus data still predicts fixation duration for this new set of experimental data. This holds even if stimuli are deprived of low-level images features, as long as higher level scene structure remains intact. Together, this shows a robust relation between fixation duration and probability, which does not depend on simple image features. Moreover, the study exemplifies the combination of empirical research on a large corpus of data with targeted experimental manipulations.

Influence of intramuscular fat content on the quality of pig meat - 2. Consumer acceptability of m. longissimus lumborum.

PubMed

Fernandez, X; Monin, G; Talmant, A; Mourot, J; Lebret, B

1999-09-01

The present study is part of a project which aimed to examine the influence of intramuscular fat (IMF) content on sensory attributes and consumer acceptability of pork. Two experiments were conducted to evaluate consumer acceptability of pork chops with varying IMF level in muscle Longissimus lumborum (LL). Each experiment used 32 castrated male pigs selected after slaughter either from 125 Duroc × Landrace (Experiment 1) or 102 Tia Meslan × Landrace (Experiment 2) crossbred animals, and showing large variability in LL IMF content: from <1.5 to >3.5% in Experiment 1 and from 1.25 to 3.25% in Experiment 2. A group of 56 consumers evaluated various items on rib-eye (LL muscle trimmed of backfat) (Experiment 1) and on entire chops trimmed of backfat (Experiment 2). Data from Experiment 1 indicate that an increase in IMF level is associated with an increase in visual perception of fat and a corresponding decrease in the willingness to eat and purchase the meat, when expressed before tasting. The latter effect disappeared after the consumers had tasted the meat, probably due to a positive effect of increase IMF, up to 3.5%, on the perception of texture and taste. In Experiment 2, where entire chops were evaluated, the perception of visible fat was not affected by IMF level, probably due to the lack of variation in the level of intermuscular fat between the four IMF groups. The willingness to eat and purchase the meat were unaffected by IMF level, whereas the perception of texture and taste was enhanced with increased IMF levels up to 3.25%. The present data suggest that the acceptability of pork may be improved by increasing IMF level but: (1) this effect disappeared for IMF levels higher than 3.5%, which are associated with a high risk of meat rejection due to visible fat and (2) the positive effect of increased IMF probably holds true as long as it is not associated with an increase in the level of intermuscular fat.

Differentiation in Data Analysis & Probability, PreK-Grade 2: A Content Companion for Ongoing Assessment, Grouping Students, Targeting Instruction, and Adjusting Levels of Cognitive Demand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor-Cox, Jennifer

2008-01-01

This book applies the author's easy but effective differentiation strategies to the data analysis and probability content standard. Taking the foundational elements of differentiation in this book, it helps you: (1) assess students' math abilities quickly and efficiently; (2) group children by need; (3) target instruction to meet every student's…

Carry-over effects of the social environment on future divorce probability in a wild bird population

PubMed Central

Culina, Antica; Hinde, Camilla A.; Sheldon, Ben C.

2015-01-01

Initial mate choice and re-mating strategies (infidelity and divorce) influence individual fitness. Both of these should be influenced by the social environment, which determines the number and availability of potential partners. While most studies looking at this relationship take a population-level approach, individual-level responses to variation in the social environment remain largely unstudied. Here, we explore carry-over effects on future mating decisions of the social environment in which the initial mating decision occurred. Using detailed data on the winter social networks of great tits, we tested whether the probability of subsequent divorce, a year later, could be predicted by measures of the social environment at the time of pairing. We found that males that had a lower proportion of female associates, and whose partner ranked lower among these, as well as inexperienced breeders, were more likely to divorce after breeding. We found no evidence that a female's social environment influenced the probability of divorce. Our findings highlight the importance of the social environment that individuals experience during initial pair formation on later pairing outcomes, and demonstrate that such effects can be delayed. Exploring these extended effects of the social environment can yield valuable insights into processes and selective pressures acting upon the mating strategies that individuals adopt. PMID:26468239

Phonotactic Probability Effects in Children Who Stutter

PubMed Central

Anderson, Julie D.; Byrd, Courtney T.

2008-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of phonotactic probability, the frequency of different sound segments and segment sequences, on the overall fluency with which words are produced by preschool children who stutter (CWS), as well as to determine whether it has an effect on the type of stuttered disfluency produced. Method A 500+ word language sample was obtained from 19 CWS. Each stuttered word was randomly paired with a fluently produced word that closely matched it in grammatical class, word length, familiarity, word and neighborhood frequency, and neighborhood density. Phonotactic probability values were obtained for the stuttered and fluent words from an online database. Results Phonotactic probability did not have a significant influence on the overall susceptibility of words to stuttering, but it did impact the type of stuttered disfluency produced. In specific, single-syllable word repetitions were significantly lower in phonotactic probability than fluently produced words, as well as part-word repetitions and sound prolongations. Conclusions In general, the differential impact of phonotactic probability on the type of stuttering-like disfluency produced by young CWS provides some support for the notion that different disfluency types may originate in the disruption of different levels of processing. PMID:18658056

Shoot Development and Extension of Quercus serrata Saplings in Response to Insect Damage and Nutrient Conditions

PubMed Central

MIZUMACHI, ERI; MORI, AKIRA; OSAWA, NAOYA; AKIYAMA, REIKO; TOKUCHI, NAOKO

2006-01-01

• Background and Aims Plants have the ability to compensate for damage caused by herbivores. This is important to plant growth, because a plant cannot always avoid damage, even if it has developed defence mechanisms against herbivores. In previous work, we elucidated the herbivory-induced compensatory response of Quercus (at both the individual shoot and whole sapling levels) in both low- and high-nutrient conditions throughout one growing season. In this study, we determine how the compensatory growth of Quercus serrata saplings is achieved at different nutrient levels. • Methods Quercus serrata saplings were grown under controlled conditions. Length, number of leaves and percentage of leaf area lost on all extension units (EUs) were measured. • Key Results Both the probability of flushing and the length of subsequent EUs significantly increased with an increase in the length of the parent EU. The probability of flushing increased with an increase in leaf damage of the parent EU, but the length of subsequent EUs decreased. This indicates that EU growth is fundamentally regulated at the individual EU level. The probabilities of a second and third flush were significantly higher in plants in high-nutrient soil than those in low-nutrient soil. The subsequent EUs of damaged saplings were also significantly longer at high-nutrient conditions. • Conclusions An increase in the probability of flushes in response to herbivore damage is important for damaged saplings to produce new EUs; further, shortening the length of EUs helps to effectively reproduce foliage lost by herbivory. The probability of flushing also varied according to soil nutrient levels, suggesting that the compensatory growth of individual EUs in response to local damage levels is affected by the nutrients available to the whole sapling. PMID:16709576

Fitness prospects: effects of age, sex and recruitment age on reproductive value in a long-lived seabird.

PubMed

Zhang, He; Rebke, Maren; Becker, Peter H; Bouwhuis, Sandra

2015-01-01

Reproductive value is an integrated measure of survival and reproduction fundamental to understanding life-history evolution and population dynamics, but little is known about intraspecific variation in reproductive value and factors explaining such variation, if any. By applying generalized additive mixed models to longitudinal individual-based data of the common tern Sterna hirundo, we estimated age-specific annual survival probability, breeding probability and reproductive performance, based on which we calculated age-specific reproductive values. We investigated effects of sex and recruitment age (RA) on each trait. We found age effects on all traits, with survival and breeding probability declining with age, while reproductive performance first improved with age before levelling off. We only found a very small, marginally significant, sex effect on survival probability, but evidence for decreasing age-specific breeding probability and reproductive performance with RA. As a result, males had slightly lower age-specific reproductive values than females, while birds of both sexes that recruited at the earliest ages of 2 and 3 years (i.e. 54% of the tern population) had somewhat higher fitness prospects than birds recruiting at later ages. While the RA effects on breeding probability and reproductive performance were statistically significant, these effects were not large enough to translate to significant effects on reproductive value. Age-specific reproductive values provided evidence for senescence, which came with fitness costs in a range of 17-21% for the sex-RA groups. Our study suggests that intraspecific variation in reproductive value may exist, but that, in the common tern, the differences are small. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

ERP Correlates of Verbal and Numerical Probabilities in Risky Choices: A Two-Stage Probability Processing View

PubMed Central

Li, Shu; Du, Xue-Lei; Li, Qi; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Wang, Yun; Rao, Li-Lin

2016-01-01

Two kinds of probability expressions, verbal and numerical, have been used to characterize the uncertainty that people face. However, the question of whether verbal and numerical probabilities are cognitively processed in a similar manner remains unresolved. From a levels-of-processing perspective, verbal and numerical probabilities may be processed differently during early sensory processing but similarly in later semantic-associated operations. This event-related potential (ERP) study investigated the neural processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. The results showed that verbal probability and numerical probability elicited different N1 amplitudes but that verbal and numerical probabilities elicited similar N2 and P3 waveforms in response to different levels of probability (high to low). These results were consistent with a levels-of-processing framework and suggest some internal consistency between the cognitive processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. Our findings shed light on possible mechanism underlying probability expression and may provide the neural evidence to support the translation of verbal to numerical probabilities (or vice versa). PMID:26834612

Problems in radiation transfer in astrophysics: An escape probability treatment of line overlap and a model of masers around VX Sgr

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lockett, P.B.

1989-01-01

The escape probability formalism is used in this dissertation to treat two problems in astrophysical radiative transfer. The first problem concerns line overlap, which occurs when two or more spectral lines lie close enough together that there is a significant probability that a photon emitted in one of the lines can be absorbed in another. The second problem involves creating a detailed model of the masers around the supergiant star, VX Sgr. The author has developed an escape probability procedure that accounts for the effects of line overlap by integrating the amount of absorption in each of the overlapping lines.more » This method was used to test the accuracy of a simpler escape probability formalism developed by Elitzur and Netzer that utilized rectangular line profiles. Good agreement between the two methods was found for a wide range of physical conditions. The more accurate method was also used to examine the effects of line overlap of the far infrared lines of the OH molecule. This overlap did have important effects on the level populations and could cause maser emission. He has also developed a detailed model of the OH 1612 and water masers around VX Sgr. He found that the masers can be adequately explained using reasonable estimates for the physical parameters. He also was able to provide a tighter constraint on the highly uncertain mass loss rate from the star. He had less success modeling the SiO masers. His explanation will require a more exact method of treating the many levels involved and also a more accurate knowledge of the relevant physical input parameters.« less

Problems in radiative transfer in astrophysics: An escape probability treatment of line overlap and a model of the masers around VX Sgr

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lockett, P.B.

1989-01-01

The escape probability formalism is used to treat two problems in astrophysical radiative transfer. The first problem concerns line overlap, which occurs when two or more spectral lines lie close enough together that there is a significant probability that a photon emitted in one of the lines can be absorbed in another. The second problem involved creating a detailed model of the masers around the supergiant star, VX Sgr. An escape probability procedure was developed that accounts for the effects of line overlap by integrating the amount of absorption in each of the overlapping lines. This method was used tomore » test the accuracy of a simpler escape probability formalism developed by Elitzur and Netzer that utilized rectangular line profiles. Good agreement between the two methods was found for a wide range of physical conditions. The more accurate method was also used to examine the effects of line overlap of the far infrared lines of the OH molecule. This overlap did have important effects on the level populations and could cause maser emission. A detailed model of the OH 1612 and water masers around VX Sgr were also developed. The masers can be adequately explained using reasonable estimates for the physical parameters. It is possible to provide a tighter constraint on the highly uncertain mass loss rate from the star. Modeling the SiO masers was less successful. Their explanation will require a more exact method of treating the many levels involved and also a more accurate knowledge of the relevant physical input parameters.« less

Depth of word processing in Alzheimer patients and normal controls: a magnetoencephalographic (MEG) study.

PubMed

Walla, P; Püregger, E; Lehrner, J; Mayer, D; Deecke, L; Dal Bianco, P

2005-05-01

Effects related to depth of verbal information processing were investigated in probable Alzheimer's disease patients (AD) and age matched controls. During word encoding sessions 10 patients and 10 controls had either to decide whether the letter "s" appeared in visually presented words (alphabetical decision, shallow encoding), or whether the meaning of each presented word was animate or inanimate (lexical decision, deep encoding). These encoding sessions were followed by test sessions during which all previously encoded words were presented again together with the same number of new words. The task was then to discriminate between repeated and new words. Magnetic field changes related to brain activity were recorded with a whole cortex MEG.5 probable AD patients showed recognition performances above chance level related to both depths of information processing. Those patients and 5 age matched controls were then further analysed. Recognition performance was poorer in probable AD patients compared to controls for both levels of processing. However, in both groups deep encoding led to a higher recognition performance than shallow encoding. We therefore conclude that the performance reduction in the patient group was independent of depth of processing. Reaction times related to false alarms differed between patients and controls after deep encoding which perhaps could already be used for supporting an early diagnosis. The analysis of the physiological data revealed significant differences between correctly recognised repetitions and correctly classified new words (old/new-effect) in the control group which were missing in the patient group after deep encoding. The lack of such an effect in the patient group is interpreted as being due to the respective neuropathology related to probable AD. The present results demonstrate that magnetic field recordings represent a useful tool to physiologically distinguish between probable AD and age matched controls.

Two-mode mazer injected with V-type three-level atoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Wen-Qing; Zhang, Zhi-Ming; Xie, Sheng-Wu

2003-12-01

The properties of the two-mode mazer operating on V-type three-level atoms are studied. The effect of the one-atom pumping on the two modes of the cavity field in number-state is asymmetric, that is, the atom emits a photon into one mode with some probability and absorbs a photon from the other mode with some other probability. This effect makes the steady-state photon distribution and the steady-state photon statistics asymmetric for the two modes. The diagram of the probability currents for the photon distribution, given by the analysis of the master equation, reveals that there is no detailed balance solution for the master equation. The computations show that the photon statistics of one mode or both modes can be sub-Poissonian, that the two modes can have anticorrelation or correlation, that the photon statistics increases with the increase of thermal photons and that the resonant position and strength of the photon statistics are influenced by the ratio of the two coupling strengths of the two modes. These properties are also discussed physically.

The analysis of probability task completion; Taxonomy of probabilistic thinking-based across gender in elementary school students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, Dwi Ivayana; Budayasa, I. Ketut; Juniati, Dwi

2017-08-01

Formulation of mathematical learning goals now is not only oriented on cognitive product, but also leads to cognitive process, which is probabilistic thinking. Probabilistic thinking is needed by students to make a decision. Elementary school students are required to develop probabilistic thinking as foundation to learn probability at higher level. A framework of probabilistic thinking of students had been developed by using SOLO taxonomy, which consists of prestructural probabilistic thinking, unistructural probabilistic thinking, multistructural probabilistic thinking and relational probabilistic thinking. This study aimed to analyze of probability task completion based on taxonomy of probabilistic thinking. The subjects were two students of fifth grade; boy and girl. Subjects were selected by giving test of mathematical ability and then based on high math ability. Subjects were given probability tasks consisting of sample space, probability of an event and probability comparison. The data analysis consisted of categorization, reduction, interpretation and conclusion. Credibility of data used time triangulation. The results was level of boy's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated multistructural probabilistic thinking, while level of girl's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated unistructural probabilistic thinking. The results indicated that level of boy's probabilistic thinking was higher than level of girl's probabilistic thinking. The results could contribute to curriculum developer in developing probability learning goals for elementary school students. Indeed, teachers could teach probability with regarding gender difference.

Patient education-level affects treatment allocation and prognosis in esophageal- and gastroesophageal junctional cancer in Sweden.

PubMed

Linder, Gustav; Sandin, Fredrik; Johansson, Jan; Lindblad, Mats; Lundell, Lars; Hedberg, Jakob

2018-02-01

Low socioeconomic status and poor education elevate the risk of developing esophageal- and junctional cancer. High education level also increases survival after curative surgery. The present study aimed to investigate associations, if any, between patient education-level and treatment allocation after diagnosis of esophageal- and junctional cancer and its subsequent impact on survival. A nation-wide cohort study was undertaken. Data from a Swedish national quality register for esophageal cancer (NREV) was linked to the National Cancer Register, National Patient Register, Prescribed Drug Register, Cause of Death Register and educational data from Statistics Sweden. The effect of education level (low; ≤9 years, intermediate; 10-12 years and high >12 years) on the probability of allocation to curative treatment was analyzed with logistic regression. The Kaplan-Meier-method and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the effect of education on survival. A total of 4112 patients were included. In a multivariate logistic regression model, high education level was associated with greater probability of allocation to curative treatment (adjusted OR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.08-2.03, p = 0,014) as was adherence to a multidisciplinary treatment-conference (adjusted OR: 3.13, 95% CI: 2.40-4.08, p < 0,001). High education level was associated with improved survival in the patients allocated to curative treatment (HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.69-0.99, p = 0,036). In this nation-wide cohort of esophageal- and junctional cancer patients, including data regarding many confounders, high education level was associated with greater probability of being offered curative treatment and improved survival. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of speech intelligibility level on concurrent visual task performance.

PubMed

Payne, D G; Peters, L J; Birkmire, D P; Bonto, M A; Anastasi, J S; Wenger, M J

1994-09-01

Four experiments were performed to determine if changes in the level of speech intelligibility in an auditory task have an impact on performance in concurrent visual tasks. The auditory task used in each experiment was a memory search task in which subjects memorized a set of words and then decided whether auditorily presented probe items were members of the memorized set. The visual tasks used were an unstable tracking task, a spatial decision-making task, a mathematical reasoning task, and a probability monitoring task. Results showed that performance on the unstable tracking and probability monitoring tasks was unaffected by the level of speech intelligibility on the auditory task, whereas accuracy in the spatial decision-making and mathematical processing tasks was significantly worse at low speech intelligibility levels. The findings are interpreted within the framework of multiple resource theory.

Blood Preservation Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-01

red cells during storage. We discovered that periodic mixing during storage increases the levels of 2,3- diphosphoglycerate , and probably as a...214. 21. Wood, L.A. and Beutler, E. 1973. The effect of periodic mixing on the preservation of 2,3- diphosphoglycerate (2,3- dpg) levels in stored blood...determine the rate of depletion of 2,3- diphosphoglycerate from stored red cells, to determine the effect of different storage conditions on the rate

A Trust-Based Secure Routing Scheme Using the Traceback Approach for Energy-Harvesting Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Tang, Jiawei; Liu, Anfeng; Zhang, Jian; Xiong, Neal N; Zeng, Zhiwen; Wang, Tian

2018-03-01

The Internet of things (IoT) is composed of billions of sensing devices that are subject to threats stemming from increasing reliance on communications technologies. A Trust-Based Secure Routing (TBSR) scheme using the traceback approach is proposed to improve the security of data routing and maximize the use of available energy in Energy-Harvesting Wireless Sensor Networks (EHWSNs). The main contributions of a TBSR are (a) the source nodes send data and notification to sinks through disjoint paths, separately; in such a mechanism, the data and notification can be verified independently to ensure their security. (b) Furthermore, the data and notification adopt a dynamic probability of marking and logging approach during the routing. Therefore, when attacked, the network will adopt the traceback approach to locate and clear malicious nodes to ensure security. The probability of marking is determined based on the level of battery remaining; when nodes harvest more energy, the probability of marking is higher, which can improve network security. Because if the probability of marking is higher, the number of marked nodes on the data packet routing path will be more, and the sink will be more likely to trace back the data packet routing path and find malicious nodes according to this notification. When data packets are routed again, they tend to bypass these malicious nodes, which make the success rate of routing higher and lead to improved network security. When the battery level is low, the probability of marking will be decreased, which is able to save energy. For logging, when the battery level is high, the network adopts a larger probability of marking and smaller probability of logging to transmit notification to the sink, which can reserve enough storage space to meet the storage demand for the period of the battery on low level; when the battery level is low, increasing the probability of logging can reduce energy consumption. After the level of battery remaining is high enough, nodes then send the notification which was logged before to the sink. Compared with past solutions, our results indicate that the performance of the TBSR scheme has been improved comprehensively; it can effectively increase the quantity of notification received by the sink by 20%, increase energy efficiency by 11%, reduce the maximum storage capacity needed by nodes by 33.3% and improve the success rate of routing by approximately 16.30%.

A Trust-Based Secure Routing Scheme Using the Traceback Approach for Energy-Harvesting Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Tang, Jiawei; Zhang, Jian; Zeng, Zhiwen; Wang, Tian

2018-01-01

The Internet of things (IoT) is composed of billions of sensing devices that are subject to threats stemming from increasing reliance on communications technologies. A Trust-Based Secure Routing (TBSR) scheme using the traceback approach is proposed to improve the security of data routing and maximize the use of available energy in Energy-Harvesting Wireless Sensor Networks (EHWSNs). The main contributions of a TBSR are (a) the source nodes send data and notification to sinks through disjoint paths, separately; in such a mechanism, the data and notification can be verified independently to ensure their security. (b) Furthermore, the data and notification adopt a dynamic probability of marking and logging approach during the routing. Therefore, when attacked, the network will adopt the traceback approach to locate and clear malicious nodes to ensure security. The probability of marking is determined based on the level of battery remaining; when nodes harvest more energy, the probability of marking is higher, which can improve network security. Because if the probability of marking is higher, the number of marked nodes on the data packet routing path will be more, and the sink will be more likely to trace back the data packet routing path and find malicious nodes according to this notification. When data packets are routed again, they tend to bypass these malicious nodes, which make the success rate of routing higher and lead to improved network security. When the battery level is low, the probability of marking will be decreased, which is able to save energy. For logging, when the battery level is high, the network adopts a larger probability of marking and smaller probability of logging to transmit notification to the sink, which can reserve enough storage space to meet the storage demand for the period of the battery on low level; when the battery level is low, increasing the probability of logging can reduce energy consumption. After the level of battery remaining is high enough, nodes then send the notification which was logged before to the sink. Compared with past solutions, our results indicate that the performance of the TBSR scheme has been improved comprehensively; it can effectively increase the quantity of notification received by the sink by 20%, increase energy efficiency by 11%, reduce the maximum storage capacity needed by nodes by 33.3% and improve the success rate of routing by approximately 16.30%. PMID:29494561

Molecular-Level Study of the Effect of Prior Axial Compression/Torsion on the Axial-Tensile Strength of PPTA Fibers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grujicic, M.; Yavari, R.; Ramaswami, S.; Snipes, J. S.; Yen, C.-F.; Cheeseman, B. A.

2013-11-01

A comprehensive all-atom molecular-level computational investigation is carried out in order to identify and quantify: (i) the effect of prior longitudinal-compressive or axial-torsional loading on the longitudinal-tensile behavior of p-phenylene terephthalamide (PPTA) fibrils/fibers; and (ii) the role various microstructural/topological defects play in affecting this behavior. Experimental and computational results available in the relevant open literature were utilized to construct various defects within the molecular-level model and to assign the concentration to these defects consistent with the values generally encountered under "prototypical" PPTA-polymer synthesis and fiber fabrication conditions. When quantifying the effect of the prior longitudinal-compressive/axial-torsional loading on the longitudinal-tensile behavior of PPTA fibrils, the stochastic nature of the size/potency of these defects was taken into account. The results obtained revealed that: (a) due to the stochastic nature of the defect type, concentration/number density and size/potency, the PPTA fibril/fiber longitudinal-tensile strength is a statistical quantity possessing a characteristic probability density function; (b) application of the prior axial compression or axial torsion to the PPTA imperfect single-crystalline fibrils degrades their longitudinal-tensile strength and only slightly modifies the associated probability density function; and (c) introduction of the fibril/fiber interfaces into the computational analyses showed that prior axial torsion can induce major changes in the material microstructure, causing significant reductions in the PPTA-fiber longitudinal-tensile strength and appreciable changes in the associated probability density function.

Application of a multistate model to estimate culvert effects on movement of small fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, J.R.; Hagler, M.M.; Freeman, Mary C.; Freeman, B.J.

2009-01-01

While it is widely acknowledged that culverted road-stream crossings may impede fish passage, effects of culverts on movement of nongame and small-bodied fishes have not been extensively studied and studies generally have not accounted for spatial variation in capture probabilities. We estimated probabilities for upstream and downstream movement of small (30-120 mm standard length) benthic and water column fishes across stream reaches with and without culverts at four road-stream crossings over a 4-6-week period. Movement and reach-specific capture probabilities were estimated using multistate capture-recapture models. Although none of the culverts were complete barriers to passage, only a bottomless-box culvert appeared to permit unrestricted upstream and downstream movements by benthic fishes based on model estimates of movement probabilities. At two box culverts that were perched above the water surface at base flow, observed movements were limited to water column fishes and to intervals when runoff from storm events raised water levels above the perched level. Only a single fish was observed to move through a partially embedded pipe culvert. Estimates for probabilities of movement over distances equal to at least the length of one culvert were low (e.g., generally ???0.03, estimated for 1-2-week intervals) and had wide 95% confidence intervals as a consequence of few observed movements to nonadjacent reaches. Estimates of capture probabilities varied among reaches by a factor of 2 to over 10, illustrating the importance of accounting for spatially variable capture rates when estimating movement probabilities with capture-recapture data. Longer-term studies are needed to evaluate temporal variability in stream fish passage at culverts (e.g., in relation to streamflow variability) and to thereby better quantify the degree of population fragmentation caused by road-stream crossings with culverts. ?? American Fisheries Society 2009.

Driver air bag effectiveness by severity of the crash.

PubMed Central

Segui-Gomez, M

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This analysis provided effectiveness estimates of the driver-side air bag while controlling for severity of the crash and other potential confounders. METHODS: Data were from the National Automotive Sampling System (1993-1996). Injury severity was described on the basis of the Abbreviated Injury Scale, Injury Severity Score, Functional Capacity Index, and survival. Ordinal, linear, and logistic multivariate regression methods were used. RESULTS: Air bag deployment in frontal or near-frontal crashes decreases the probability of having severe and fatal injuries (e.g., Abbreviated Injury Scale score of 4-6), including those causing a long-lasting high degree of functional limitation. However, air bag deployment in low-severity crashes increases the probability that a driver (particularly a woman) will sustain injuries of Abbreviated Injury Scale level 1 to 3. Air bag deployment exerts a net injurious effect in low-severity crashes and a net protective effect in high-severity crashes. The level of crash severity at which air bags are protective is higher for female than for male drivers. CONCLUSIONS: Air bag improvement should minimize the injuries induced by their deployment. One possibility is to raise their deployment level so that they deploy only in more severe crashes. PMID:11029991

Exploratory factor analysis of pathway copy number data with an application towards the integration with gene expression data.

PubMed

van Wieringen, Wessel N; van de Wiel, Mark A

2011-05-01

Realizing that genes often operate together, studies into the molecular biology of cancer shift focus from individual genes to pathways. In order to understand the regulatory mechanisms of a pathway, one must study its genes at all molecular levels. To facilitate such study at the genomic level, we developed exploratory factor analysis for the characterization of the variability of a pathway's copy number data. A latent variable model that describes the call probability data of a pathway is introduced and fitted with an EM algorithm. In two breast cancer data sets, it is shown that the first two latent variables of GO nodes, which inherit a clear interpretation from the call probabilities, are often related to the proportion of aberrations and a contrast of the probabilities of a loss and of a gain. Linking the latent variables to the node's gene expression data suggests that they capture the "global" effect of genomic aberrations on these transcript levels. In all, the proposed method provides an possibly insightful characterization of pathway copy number data, which may be fruitfully exploited to study the interaction between the pathway's DNA copy number aberrations and data from other molecular levels like gene expression.

Theoretical transition probabilities, oscillator strengths, and radiative lifetimes of levels in Pb IV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alonso-Medina, A.; Colon, C., E-mail: cristobal.colon@upm.e; Porcher, P.

2011-01-15

Transition probabilities and oscillator strengths of 176 spectral lines with astrophysical interest arising from 5d{sup 10}ns (n = 7,8), 5d{sup 10}np (n = 6,7), 5d{sup 10}nd (n = 6,7), 5d{sup 10}5f, 5d{sup 10}5g, 5d{sup 10}nh (n = 6,7,8), 5d{sup 9}6s{sup 2}, and 5d{sup 9}6s6p configurations, and radiative lifetimes for 43 levels of Pb IV, have been calculated. These values were obtained in intermediate coupling (IC) and using relativistic Hartree-Fock calculations including core-polarization effects. For the IC calculations, we use the standard method of least-square fitting from experimental energy levels by means of the Cowan computer code. The inclusion in thesemore » calculations of the 5d{sup 10}7p and 5d{sup 10}5f configurations has facilitated a complete assignment of the energy levels in the Pb IV. Transition probabilities, oscillator strengths, and radiative lifetimes obtained are generally in good agreement with the experimental data.« less

Doctor-patient communication: some quantitative estimates of the role of cognitive factors in non-compliance.

PubMed

Ley, P

1985-04-01

Patients frequently fail to understand what they are told. Further, they frequently forget the information given to them. These factors have effects on patients' satisfaction with the consultation. All three of these factors--understanding, memory and satisfaction--have effects on the probability that a patient will comply with advice. The levels of failure to understand and remember and levels of dissatisfaction are described. Quantitative estimates of the effects of these factors on non-compliance are presented.

Making the decision to stop pain: Probability and magnitude effects of expected pain relief on the choice of analgesics.

PubMed

Lin, C

2013-04-01

Pain is a major ailment that motivates individuals to look for treatment. Despite its enormous clinical relevance, very little is known about the factors that influence our preference of an analgesic (or pain-relieving treatment). The current study investigated the influence of the information regarding the probability and the magnitude of the expected analgesic effect on preference of analgesic options. Twenty-four healthy volunteers were instructed to imagine pain across different scenarios and choose between two hypothetical analgesics that differed in their probabilities to successfully relieve pain and the magnitude of their expected analgesic effects. The conservative analgesic was more reliable but less potent than the radical analgesic, whereas the radical analgesic was less reliable but more potent than the conservative analgesic. Consistent with the predictions of prospect theory, a larger proportion of the participants chose the radical analgesic when the overall probability of both analgesics decreased, and when the potency of the radical analgesic was expected to be stronger relative to the conservative analgesic. At the individual level, individuals' relative imagined pain relief (radical analgesic/conservative analgesic) predicted their preference for the radical analgesic. Our findings revealed that preference of analgesic options is mediated by the overall probability of analgesic effect and the relative potency of analgesics. The expected relief one imagines to obtain from analgesics would guide preference. The findings highlight the importance for clinicians to understand how patients subjectively frame the probability and magnitude factors related to decision making in medical context. © 2012 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

Prior probability modulates anticipatory activity in category-specific areas.

PubMed

Trapp, Sabrina; Lepsien, Jöran; Kotz, Sonja A; Bar, Moshe

2016-02-01

Bayesian models are currently a dominant framework for describing human information processing. However, it is not clear yet how major tenets of this framework can be translated to brain processes. In this study, we addressed the neural underpinning of prior probability and its effect on anticipatory activity in category-specific areas. Before fMRI scanning, participants were trained in two behavioral sessions to learn the prior probability and correct order of visual events within a sequence. The events of each sequence included two different presentations of a geometric shape and one picture of either a house or a face, which appeared with either a high or a low likelihood. Each sequence was preceded by a cue that gave participants probabilistic information about which items to expect next. This allowed examining cue-related anticipatory modulation of activity as a function of prior probability in category-specific areas (fusiform face area and parahippocampal place area). Our findings show that activity in the fusiform face area was higher when faces had a higher prior probability. The finding of a difference between levels of expectations is consistent with graded, probabilistically modulated activity, but the data do not rule out the alternative explanation of a categorical neural response. Importantly, these differences were only visible during anticipation, and vanished at the time of stimulus presentation, calling for a functional distinction when considering the effects of prior probability. Finally, there were no anticipatory effects for houses in the parahippocampal place area, suggesting sensitivity to stimulus material when looking at effects of prediction.

Two-IMU FDI performance of the sequential probability ratio test during shuttle entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, T. M.

1976-01-01

Performance data for the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) during shuttle entry are presented. Current modeling constants and failure thresholds are included for the full mission 3B from entry through landing trajectory. Minimum 100 percent detection/isolation failure levels and a discussion of the effects of failure direction are presented. Finally, a limited comparison of failures introduced at trajectory initiation shows that the SPRT algorithm performs slightly worse than the data tracking test.

Probabilistic structural analysis methods and applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruse, T. A.; Wu, Y.-T.; Dias, B.; Rajagopal, K. R.

1988-01-01

An advanced algorithm for simulating the probabilistic distribution of structural responses due to statistical uncertainties in loads, geometry, material properties, and boundary conditions is reported. The method effectively combines an advanced algorithm for calculating probability levels for multivariate problems (fast probability integration) together with a general-purpose finite-element code for stress, vibration, and buckling analysis. Application is made to a space propulsion system turbine blade for which the geometry and material properties are treated as random variables.

Geospatial association between adverse birth outcomes and arsenic in groundwater in New Hampshire, USA.

PubMed

Shi, Xun; Ayotte, Joseph D; Onda, Akikazu; Miller, Stephanie; Rees, Judy; Gilbert-Diamond, Diane; Onega, Tracy; Gui, Jiang; Karagas, Margaret; Moeschler, John

2015-04-01

There is increasing evidence of the role of arsenic in the etiology of adverse human reproductive outcomes. Because drinking water can be a major source of arsenic to pregnant women, the effect of arsenic exposure through drinking water on human birth may be revealed by a geospatial association between arsenic concentration in groundwater and birth problems, particularly in a region where private wells substantially account for water supply, like New Hampshire, USA. We calculated town-level rates of preterm birth and term low birth weight (term LBW) for New Hampshire, by using data for 1997-2009 stratified by maternal age. We smoothed the rates by using a locally weighted averaging method to increase the statistical stability. The town-level groundwater arsenic probability values are from three GIS data layers generated by the US Geological Survey: probability of local groundwater arsenic concentration >1 µg/L, probability >5 µg/L, and probability >10 µg/L. We calculated Pearson's correlation coefficients (r) between the reproductive outcomes (preterm birth and term LBW) and the arsenic probability values, at both state and county levels. For preterm birth, younger mothers (maternal age <20) have a statewide r = 0.70 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 2,000 births and the town mean arsenic level based on the data of probability >10 µg/L; for older mothers, r = 0.19 when the smoothing threshold = 3,500; a majority of county level r values are positive based on the arsenic data of probability >10 µg/L. For term LBW, younger mothers (maternal age <25) have a statewide r = 0.44 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 3,500 and town minimum arsenic concentration based on the data of probability >1 µg/L; for older mothers, r = 0.14 when the rates are smoothed with a threshold = 1,000 births and also adjusted by town median household income in 1999, and the arsenic values are the town minimum based on probability >10 µg/L. At the county level for younger mothers, positive r values prevail, but for older mothers, it is a mix. For both birth problems, the several most populous counties-with 60-80 % of the state's population and clustering at the southwest corner of the state-are largely consistent in having a positive r across different smoothing thresholds. We found evident spatial associations between the two adverse human reproductive outcomes and groundwater arsenic in New Hampshire, USA. However, the degree of associations and their sensitivity to different representations of arsenic level are variable. Generally, preterm birth has a stronger spatial association with groundwater arsenic than term LBW, suggesting an inconsistency in the impact of arsenic on the two reproductive outcomes. For both outcomes, younger maternal age has stronger spatial associations with groundwater arsenic.

Gender-specific interactions between education and income in relation to obesity: a cross-sectional analysis of the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES V)

PubMed Central

Chung, Woojin; Lim, Seung-ji; Lee, Sunmi; Kim, Roeul; Kim, Jaeyeun

2017-01-01

Objectives To identify gender-specific associations between education and income in relation to obesity in developed countries by considering both the interaction-effect terms of the independent variables and their main-effect terms. Design A cross-sectional study. Education and income levels were chosen as socioeconomic status indicators. Sociodemographics, lifestyles and medical conditions were used as covariates in multivariable logistic regression models. Adjusted ORs and predicted probabilities of being obese were computed and adjusted for a complex survey design. Setting Data were obtained from the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2010–2012). Participants The sample included 7337 male and 9908 female participants aged ≥19 years. Outcome measure Obesity was defined as body mass index of ≥25, according to a guideline for Asians. Results In models with no interaction-effect terms of independent variables, education was significantly associated with obesity in both men and women, but income was significant only in women. However, in models with the interaction-effect terms, education was significant only in women, but income was significant only in men. The interaction effect between income and education was significant in men but not in women. Participants having the highest predicted probability of being obese over educational and income levels differed between the two types of models, and between men and women. A prediction using the models with the interaction-effect terms demonstrated that for all men, the highest level of formal education was associated with an increase in their probability of being obese by as much as 26%. Conclusions The well-known, negative association between socioeconomic status and obesity in developed countries may not be valid when interaction effects are included. Ignoring these effects and their gender differences may result in the targeting of wrong populations for reducing obesity prevalence and its resultant socioeconomic gradients. PMID:29288171

A case of probable labetalol induced hyperkalaemia in pre-eclampsia.

PubMed

Thomas, Binny; Abdul Rouf, P V; El Kassem, Wessam; Al Hail, Moza; Stewart, Derek; Tharannum, Asma; Ahmed, Afif; Al Saadi, Muna

2014-12-01

Hyperkalemia can cause altered cardiac electrical conduction resulting in death. We describe a case of a 23-year old pregnant patient who presented with severe epigastric pain and vomiting. She was severely pre- eclamptic and received initial treatment with intravenous labetalol and decision was taken to deliver. She quickly became hyperkalaemic (serum potassium level 6.4 mmol/L) and labetalol was discontinued and intravenous hydralazine commenced. Post-surgery, her potassium levels were normal but due to rapidly rising blood pressure labetalol was recommenced, resulting in elevated potassium levels. Labetolol was discontinued, hydralazine prescribed, and potassium levels normalised. The adverse reaction was classified as 'probably' due to labetolol using the Naranjo Adverse Drug Reaction scale. This is the first reported case of labetolol induced hyperkalaemia in pregnancy, with life threatening consequences and hence all health professionals should be alert to this potential effect.

Bayesian statistical inference enhances the interpretation of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Duminda N; Austin, Peter C; Hux, Janet E; Beattie, W Scott; Laupacis, Andreas

2009-01-01

Randomized trials generally use "frequentist" statistics based on P-values and 95% confidence intervals. Frequentist methods have limitations that might be overcome, in part, by Bayesian inference. To illustrate these advantages, we re-analyzed randomized trials published in four general medical journals during 2004. We used Medline to identify randomized superiority trials with two parallel arms, individual-level randomization and dichotomous or time-to-event primary outcomes. Studies with P<0.05 in favor of the intervention were deemed "positive"; otherwise, they were "negative." We used several prior distributions and exact conjugate analyses to calculate Bayesian posterior probabilities for clinically relevant effects. Of 88 included studies, 39 were positive using a frequentist analysis. Although the Bayesian posterior probabilities of any benefit (relative risk or hazard ratio<1) were high in positive studies, these probabilities were lower and variable for larger benefits. The positive studies had only moderate probabilities for exceeding the effects that were assumed for calculating the sample size. By comparison, there were moderate probabilities of any benefit in negative studies. Bayesian and frequentist analyses complement each other when interpreting the results of randomized trials. Future reports of randomized trials should include both.

Learning difficulties of senior high school students based on probability understanding levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggara, B.; Priatna, N.; Juandi, D.

2018-05-01

Identifying students' difficulties in learning concept of probability is important for teachers to prepare the appropriate learning processes and can overcome obstacles that may arise in the next learning processes. This study revealed the level of students' understanding of the concept of probability and identified their difficulties as a part of the epistemological obstacles identification of the concept of probability. This study employed a qualitative approach that tends to be the character of descriptive research involving 55 students of class XII. In this case, the writer used the diagnostic test of probability concept learning difficulty, observation, and interview as the techniques to collect the data needed. The data was used to determine levels of understanding and the learning difficulties experienced by the students. From the result of students' test result and learning observation, it was found that the mean cognitive level was at level 2. The findings indicated that students had appropriate quantitative information of probability concept but it might be incomplete or incorrectly used. The difficulties found are the ones in arranging sample space, events, and mathematical models related to probability problems. Besides, students had difficulties in understanding the principles of events and prerequisite concept.

The luminescence properties of nanocrystalline phosphors Mg2SiO4:Eu3+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolomytsev, A. Y.; Mamonova, D. V.; Manshina, A. A.; Kolesnikov, I. E.

2017-11-01

Nanocrystalline Eu3+-doped Mg2SiO4 powders were prepared with combined Pechini-solid phase synthesis. The structural properties were investigated with XRD, SEM and Raman spectroscopy. XRD pattern indicated that Mg2SiO4:Eu3+ were obtained with formation of other phase: MgO. Raman spectrum revealed good homogeneity and crystallinity of synthesized nanopowders. The luminescence properties were studied with measurement of excitation and emission spectra and decay curves. The effect of Eu3+ concentration on 5D0 level lifetime was studied. Most probably, the observed shortening of 5D0 level lifetime with Eu3+ concentration is caused by increase of nonradiative process probability.

[False positive results or what's the probability that a significant P-value indicates a true effect?

PubMed

Cucherat, Michel; Laporte, Silvy

2017-09-01

The use of statistical test is central in the clinical trial. At the statistical level, obtaining a P<0.05 allows to claim the effectiveness of the new studied treatment. However, given its underlying mathematical logic the concept of "P value" is often misinterpreted. It is often assimilated, mistakenly, to the likelihood that treatment is ineffective. Actually the "P value" gives an indirect information about the plausibility of the existence of treatment effect. With "P<0.05", the probability that the treatment is effective may vary depending on other statistical parameters which are the alpha level of risk, the power of the study and especially the a priori probability of the existence of treatment effect. A "P<0.05" does not always produce the same degree of certainty. Thus there exist situations where the risk of a result "P<0.05" is in reality a false positive is very high. This is the case if the power is low, if there is an inflation of the alpha risk or if the result is exploratory or chance discoveries. This possibility is important to take into consideration when interpreting the results of clinical trials in order to avoid pushing ahead significant results in appearance, but which are likely to be actually false positive results. Copyright © 2017 Société française de pharmacologie et de thérapeutique. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Condom Use as a Function of Number of Coital Events in New Relationships.

PubMed

He, Fei; Hensel, Devon J; Harezlak, Jaroslaw; Fortenberry, J Dennis

2016-02-01

To assess condom use as a function of number of coital events in newly formed sexual relationships. Participants who reported at least one new partner during the 12-week study interval (n = 115; ages 18-29 years; 48% women; 90% African American) completed weekly sexually transmitted infections testing and 3 times daily electronic diary collection assessing individual and partner-specific affect, daily activities, sexual behavior, and condom use. We analyzed event-level condom use percentage and participant-level behavior response effects. generalized additive mixed models were used to estimate condom use probability accounting for within-partner and within-participant correlations via random effects. The average condom use probability at the first coital event in new relationships was 55% for men and 36% for women. Analyses showed that smooth shapes of estimated condom use probabilities were similar for both sexes and were fitted using generalized additive mixed models. Relatively higher condom use percentage was followed by a sharp decline during the first 9 coital events decreasing to 16% for men and 8% for women. More rapid decline in condom use among women was highly associated with higher levels of relationship and sexual satisfaction. The likelihood of condom use declines sharply for both men and women after the early accrual experience with a partner. Relationship and sexual satisfaction also influence declines in condom use, especially among women.

Condom use as a function of number of coital events in new relationships

PubMed Central

He, Fei; Hensel, Devon J.; Harezlak, Jaroslaw; Fortenberry, J. Dennis

2015-01-01

Study Objective Assess condom use as a function of number of coital events in newly formed sexual relationships. Methods Participants who reported at least one new partner during the 12-week study interval (N=115; ages 18–29 years; 48% women; 90% African American) completed weekly sexually transmitted infections testing and three-times daily electronic diary collection assessing individual and partner-specific affect, daily activities, sexual behavior and condom use. We analyzed event-level condom use percentage and subject-level behavior response effects. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) were used to estimate condom use probability accounting for within-partner and within-subject correlations via random effects. Results The average condom use probability at the first coital event in new relationships was 55% for men and 36% for women. Analyses showed that smooth shapes of estimated condom use probabilities were similar for both sexes and were fitted using GAMMs. Relatively higher condom use percentage was followed by a sharp decline during the first 9 coital events decreasing to 16% for men and 8% for women. More rapid decline in condom use among women was highly associated with higher levels of relationship and sexual satisfaction. Conclusions The likelihood of condom use declines sharply for both men and women after the early accrual experience with a partner. Relationship and sexual satisfaction also influence declines in condom use, especially among women. PMID:26766522

Performance of two solid fumigants in covered bridges

Treesearch

Matthew J. Konkler; Mark A. Newbill; Stan Lebow; Jeffrey J. Morrell

2017-01-01

The potential for two solid wood fumigants, dazomet and methylisothiocyanate (MITC), to move through wood at levels sufficient to arrest decay in covered bridges was assessed. Dazomet alone failed to decompose to MITC and move into the wood at effective levels, probably because too little moisture was available for breakdown. Adding a copper accelerant improved dazomet...

Monte-Carlo Modeling of the Prompt Radiation Emitted by a Nuclear Device in the National Capital Region, Revision 1

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-10

Anno, et al. 2003). The asymptomatic level (0.75 Gy) is considered the lower dose threshold of the presence of symptoms from acute radiation ...high probability of acute injury due to prompt radiation (shown in yellow, > 0.75-Gy equivalent dose) and low probability of acute injury from prompt...of an urban nuclear-weapon detonation as associated with the possibility of acute , deterministic radiation effects. Equivalent-dose calculations for

Does genetic introgression improve female reproductive performance? A test on the endangered Florida panther.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Onorato, David P; Bolker, Benjamin M; Johnson, Warren E; O'Brien, Stephen J; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K

2012-01-01

Genetic introgression has been suggested as a management tool for mitigating detrimental effects of inbreeding depression, but the role of introgression in species conservation has been controversial, partly because population-level impacts of genetic introgressions are not well understood. Concerns about potential inbreeding depression in the endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) led to the release of eight female Texas pumas (P. c. stanleyana) into the Florida panther population in 1995. We used long-term reproductive data (1995-2008) collected from 61 female Florida panthers to estimate and model reproduction probability (probability of producing a litter) and litter size, and to investigate the influence of intentional genetic introgression on these parameters. Overall, 6-month probability of reproduction (±1SE) was 0.232 ± 0.021 and average litter size was 2.60 ± 0.09. Although F(1) admixed females had a lower reproduction probability than females with other ancestries, this was most likely because kittens born to F(1) females survive better; consequently, these females are unavailable for breeding until kittens are independent. There was no evidence for the effect of ancestry on litter size or of heterozygosity on probability of reproduction or litter size. In contrast, earlier studies have shown that genetic introgression positively affected Florida panther survival. Our results, along with those of earlier studies, clearly suggest that genetic introgression can have differential effects on components of fitness and highlight the importance of examining multiple demographic parameters when evaluating the effects of management actions.

Heterogeneous reactions in aircraft gas turbine engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, R. C.; Miake-Lye, R. C.; Lukachko, S. P.; Waitz, I. A.

2002-05-01

One-dimensional flow models and unity probability heterogeneous rate parameters are used to estimate the maximum effect of heterogeneous reactions on trace species evolution in aircraft gas turbines. The analysis includes reactions on soot particulates and turbine/nozzle material surfaces. Results for a representative advanced subsonic engine indicate the net change in reactant mixing ratios due to heterogeneous reactions is <10-6 for O2, CO2, and H2O, and <10-10 for minor combustion products such as SO2 and NO2. The change in the mixing ratios relative to the initial values is <0.01%. Since these estimates are based on heterogeneous reaction probabilities of unity, the actual changes will be even lower. Thus, heterogeneous chemistry within the engine cannot explain the high conversion of SO2 to SO3 which some wake models require to explain the observed levels of volatile aerosols. Furthermore, turbine heterogeneous processes will not effect exhaust NOx or NOy levels.

Eliciting Survival Expectations of the Elderly in Low-Income Countries: Evidence From India.

PubMed

Delavande, Adeline; Lee, Jinkook; Menon, Seetha

2017-04-01

We examine several methodological considerations when eliciting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context using the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI). We conclude that although, on average, individuals are able to understand the concept of probability, responses are sensitive to framing effects and to own versus hypothetical-person effects. We find that overall, people are pessimistic about their survival probabilities compared with state-specific life tables and that socioeconomic status does influence beliefs about own survival expectations as found in previous literature in other countries. Higher levels of education and income have a positive association with survival expectations, and these associations persist even when conditioning on self-reported health. The results remain robust to several alternative specifications. We then compare the survival measures with objective measures of health. We find that activities of daily life, height, and low hemoglobin levels covary with subjective expectations in expected directions.

Estimating The Probability Of Achieving Shortleaf Pine Regeneration At Variable Specified Levels

Treesearch

Thomas B. Lynch; Jean Nkouka; Michael M. Huebschmann; James M. Guldin

2002-01-01

A model was developed that can be used to estimate the probability of achieving regeneration at a variety of specified stem density levels. The model was fitted to shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) regeneration data, and can be used to estimate the probability of achieving desired levels of regeneration between 300 and 700 stems per acre 9-l 0...

The effect of incremental changes in phonotactic probability and neighborhood density on word learning by preschool children

PubMed Central

Storkel, Holly L.; Bontempo, Daniel E.; Aschenbrenner, Andrew J.; Maekawa, Junko; Lee, Su-Yeon

2013-01-01

Purpose Phonotactic probability or neighborhood density have predominately been defined using gross distinctions (i.e., low vs. high). The current studies examined the influence of finer changes in probability (Experiment 1) and density (Experiment 2) on word learning. Method The full range of probability or density was examined by sampling five nonwords from each of four quartiles. Three- and 5-year-old children received training on nonword-nonobject pairs. Learning was measured in a picture-naming task immediately following training and 1-week after training. Results were analyzed using multi-level modeling. Results A linear spline model best captured nonlinearities in phonotactic probability. Specifically word learning improved as probability increased in the lowest quartile, worsened as probability increased in the midlow quartile, and then remained stable and poor in the two highest quartiles. An ordinary linear model sufficiently described neighborhood density. Here, word learning improved as density increased across all quartiles. Conclusion Given these different patterns, phonotactic probability and neighborhood density appear to influence different word learning processes. Specifically, phonotactic probability may affect recognition that a sound sequence is an acceptable word in the language and is a novel word for the child, whereas neighborhood density may influence creation of a new representation in long-term memory. PMID:23882005

Probable gamma-aminobutyric acid involvement in bisphenol A effect at the hypothalamic level in adult male rats.

PubMed

Cardoso, Nancy; Pandolfi, Matías; Lavalle, Justina; Carbone, Silvia; Ponzo, Osvaldo; Scacchi, Pablo; Reynoso, Roxana

2011-12-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of bisphenol A (BPA) on the neuroendocrine mechanism of control of the reproductive axis in adult male rats exposed to it during pre- and early postnatal periods. Wistar mated rats were treated with either 0.1% ethanol or BPA in their drinking water until their offspring were weaned at the age of 21 days. The estimated average dose of exposure to dams was approximately 2.5 mg/kg body weight per day of BPA. After 21 days, the pups were separated from the mother and sacrificed on 70 day of life. Gn-RH and gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) release from hypothalamic fragments was measured. LH, FSH, and testosterone concentrations were determined, and histological and morphometrical studies of testis were performed. Gn-RH release decreased significantly, while GABA serum levels were markedly increased by treatment. LH serum levels showed no changes, and FSH and testosterone levels decreased significantly. Histological studies showed abnormalities in the tubular organization of the germinal epithelium. The cytoarchitecture of germinal cells was apparently normal, and a reduction of the nuclear area of Leydig cells but not their number was observed. Taken all together, these results provide evidence of the effect caused by BPA on the adult male reproductive axis when exposed during pre- and postnatal period. Moreover, our findings suggest a probable GABA involvement in its effect at the hypothalamic level.

Public and private health insurance premiums: how do they affect the health insurance status of low-income childless adults?

PubMed

Guy, Gery P; Adams, E Kathleen; Atherly, Adam

2012-01-01

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) will substantially increase public health insurance eligibility and alter the costs of insurance coverage. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) data from the period 2000-2008, we examine the effects of public and private health insurance premiums on the insurance status of low-income childless adults, a population substantially affected by the ACA. Results show higher public premiums to be associated with a decrease in the probability of having public insurance and an increase in the probability of being uninsured, while increased private premiums decrease the probability of having private insurance. Eligibility for premium assistance programs and increased subsidy levels are associated with lower rates of uninsurance. The magnitudes of the effects are quite modest and provide important implications for insurance expansions for childless adults under the ACA.

d-serine levels in Alzheimer's disease: implications for novel biomarker development

PubMed Central

Madeira, C; Lourenco, M V; Vargas-Lopes, C; Suemoto, C K; Brandão, C O; Reis, T; Leite, R E P; Laks, J; Jacob-Filho, W; Pasqualucci, C A; Grinberg, L T; Ferreira, S T; Panizzutti, R

2015-01-01

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a severe neurodegenerative disorder still in search of effective methods of diagnosis. Altered levels of the NMDA receptor co-agonist, d-serine, have been associated with neurological disorders, including schizophrenia and epilepsy. However, whether d-serine levels are deregulated in AD remains elusive. Here, we first measured D-serine levels in post-mortem hippocampal and cortical samples from nondemented subjects (n=8) and AD patients (n=14). We next determined d-serine levels in experimental models of AD, including wild-type rats and mice that received intracerebroventricular injections of amyloid-β oligomers, and APP/PS1 transgenic mice. Finally, we assessed d-serine levels in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of 21 patients with a diagnosis of probable AD, as compared with patients with normal pressure hydrocephalus (n=9), major depression (n=9) and healthy controls (n=10), and results were contrasted with CSF amyloid-β/tau AD biomarkers. d-serine levels were higher in the hippocampus and parietal cortex of AD patients than in control subjects. Levels of both d-serine and serine racemase, the enzyme responsible for d-serine production, were elevated in experimental models of AD. Significantly, d-serine levels were higher in the CSF of probable AD patients than in non-cognitively impaired subject groups. Combining d-serine levels to the amyloid/tau index remarkably increased the sensitivity and specificity of diagnosis of probable AD in our cohort. Our results show that increased brain and CSF d-serine levels are associated with AD. CSF d-serine levels discriminated between nondemented and AD patients in our cohort and might constitute a novel candidate biomarker for early AD diagnosis. PMID:25942042

Quantifying the synergistic effect of the precipitation and land use on sandy desertification at county level: a case study in Naiman Banner, Northern China.

PubMed

Xiaodong, Ge; Jinren, Ni; Zhenshan, Li; Ronggui, Hu; Xin, Ming; Qing, Ye

2013-07-15

Assessing the driving forces of sandy desertification is fundamental and important for its control. It has been widely accepted that both climatic conditions and land use have great impact on sandy desertification in northern China. However, the relative role and synergistic effect of each driving force of sandy desertification are still not clear. In this paper, an indicator named as SI was defined to represent the integrated probability of sandy desertification caused by land use. A quantitative method was developed for characterizing the relative roles of annual precipitation and land use to sandy desertification in both spatial and temporal dimensions at county level. Results showed that, at county level, land use was the main cause of sandy desertification for Naiman Banner since 1987-2009. In the case of spatial dimension, the different combination of land use types decided the distribution of sandy desertification probability and finally decided the spatial pattern of bared sand land. In the case of temporal dimension, the synergistic effect of land use and precipitation highly influenced the spatial distribution of sandy desertification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiative data for highly excited 3d84d levels in Ni II from laboratory measurements and atomic calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, H.; Engström, L.; Lundberg, H.; Nilsson, H.; Quinet, P.; Fivet, V.; Palmeri, P.; Malcheva, G.; Blagoev, K.

2017-04-01

Aims: This work reports new experimental radiative lifetimes and calculated oscillator strengths for transitions from 3d84d levels of astrophysical interest in singly ionized nickel. Methods: Radiative lifetimes of seven high-lying levels of even parity in Ni II (98 400-100 600 cm-1) have been measured using the time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence method. Two-step photon excitation of ions produced by laser ablation has been utilized to populate the levels. Theoretical calculations of the radiative lifetimes of the measured levels and transition probabilities from these levels are reported. The calculations have been performed using a pseudo-relativistic Hartree-Fock method, taking into account core polarization effects. Results: A new set of transition probabilities and oscillator strengths has been deduced for 477 Ni II transitions of astrophysical interest in the spectral range 194-520 nm depopulating even parity 3d84d levels. The new calculated gf-values are, on the average, about 20% higher than a previous calculation and yield lifetimes within 5% of the experimental values.

Quantum probability ranking principle for ligand-based virtual screening.

PubMed

Al-Dabbagh, Mohammed Mumtaz; Salim, Naomie; Himmat, Mubarak; Ahmed, Ali; Saeed, Faisal

2017-04-01

Chemical libraries contain thousands of compounds that need screening, which increases the need for computational methods that can rank or prioritize compounds. The tools of virtual screening are widely exploited to enhance the cost effectiveness of lead drug discovery programs by ranking chemical compounds databases in decreasing probability of biological activity based upon probability ranking principle (PRP). In this paper, we developed a novel ranking approach for molecular compounds inspired by quantum mechanics, called quantum probability ranking principle (QPRP). The QPRP ranking criteria would make an attempt to draw an analogy between the physical experiment and molecular structure ranking process for 2D fingerprints in ligand based virtual screening (LBVS). The development of QPRP criteria in LBVS has employed the concepts of quantum at three different levels, firstly at representation level, this model makes an effort to develop a new framework of molecular representation by connecting the molecular compounds with mathematical quantum space. Secondly, estimate the similarity between chemical libraries and references based on quantum-based similarity searching method. Finally, rank the molecules using QPRP approach. Simulated virtual screening experiments with MDL drug data report (MDDR) data sets showed that QPRP outperformed the classical ranking principle (PRP) for molecular chemical compounds.

Quantum probability ranking principle for ligand-based virtual screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Dabbagh, Mohammed Mumtaz; Salim, Naomie; Himmat, Mubarak; Ahmed, Ali; Saeed, Faisal

2017-04-01

Chemical libraries contain thousands of compounds that need screening, which increases the need for computational methods that can rank or prioritize compounds. The tools of virtual screening are widely exploited to enhance the cost effectiveness of lead drug discovery programs by ranking chemical compounds databases in decreasing probability of biological activity based upon probability ranking principle (PRP). In this paper, we developed a novel ranking approach for molecular compounds inspired by quantum mechanics, called quantum probability ranking principle (QPRP). The QPRP ranking criteria would make an attempt to draw an analogy between the physical experiment and molecular structure ranking process for 2D fingerprints in ligand based virtual screening (LBVS). The development of QPRP criteria in LBVS has employed the concepts of quantum at three different levels, firstly at representation level, this model makes an effort to develop a new framework of molecular representation by connecting the molecular compounds with mathematical quantum space. Secondly, estimate the similarity between chemical libraries and references based on quantum-based similarity searching method. Finally, rank the molecules using QPRP approach. Simulated virtual screening experiments with MDL drug data report (MDDR) data sets showed that QPRP outperformed the classical ranking principle (PRP) for molecular chemical compounds.

Photon-enhanced thermionic emission from p-GaAs with nonequilibrium Cs overlayers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhuravlev, A. G.; Romanov, A. S.; Alperovich, V. L., E-mail: alper@isp.nsc.ru

2014-12-22

Photon-enhanced thermionic emission (PETE), which is promising for increasing the efficiency of solar energy conversion, is studied during cesium deposition on the As- and Ga-rich p-GaAs(001) surfaces and subsequent relaxation in the nonequilibrium Cs overlayer by means of photoemission quantum yield spectroscopy adapted for systems with time-variable parameters. Along with direct photoemission of “hot” electrons excited by light above the vacuum level, the spectra contain PETE contribution of “thermalized” electrons, which are excited below the vacuum level and emit in vacuum due to thermalization up in energy by phonon absorption. Comparing the measured and calculated spectra, the effective electron affinitymore » and escape probabilities of hot and thermalized electrons are obtained as functions of submonolayer Cs coverage. The minima in the affinity and pronounced peaks in the escape probabilities are observed for Cs deposition on both the As- and Ga-rich surfaces. Possible reasons for the low mean values of the electron escape probabilities and for the observed enhancement of the probabilities at certain Cs coverages are discussed, along with the implications for the PETE device realization.« less

Predictors of having heard about human papillomavirus vaccination: Critical aspects for cervical cancer prevention among Colombian women.

PubMed

Bermedo-Carrasco, Silvia; Feng, Cindy Xin; Peña-Sánchez, Juan Nicolás; Lepnurm, Rein

2015-01-01

To determine whether the probability of having heard about human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination differs by socio-demographic characteristics among Colombian women; and whether the effect of predictors of having heard about HPV vaccination varies by educational levels and rural/urban area of residence. Data of 53,521 women aged 13-49 years were drawn from the 2010 Colombian National Demographic and Health Survey. Women were asked about aspects of their health and their socio-demographic characteristics. A logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with having heard about HPV vaccination. Educational level and rural/urban area of residence of the women were tested as modifier effects of predictors. 26.8% of the women had heard about HPV vaccination. The odds of having heard about HPV vaccination were lower among women: in low wealth quintiles, without health insurance, with subsidized health insurance, and those who had children (p<0.001). Although women in older age groups and with better education had higher probabilities of having heard about HPV vaccination, differences in these probabilities by age group were more evident among educated women compared to non-educated ones. Probability gaps between non-educated and highly educated women were wider in the Eastern region. Living in rural areas decreased the probability of having heard about HPV vaccination, although narrower rural/urban gaps were observed in the Atlantic and Amazon-Orinoquía regions. Almost three quarters of the Colombian women had not heard about HPV vaccination, with variations by socio-demographic characteristics. Women in disadvantaged groups were less likely to have heard about HPV vaccination. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

A Coupled Natural-Human Modeling of the Land Loss Probability in the Mississippi River Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, H.; Lam, N.; Zou, L.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi River Delta (MRD) is one of the most environmentally threatened areas in the United States. The area has been suffering substantial land loss during the past decades. Land loss in the MRD has been a subject of intense research by many researchers from multiple disciplines, aiming at mitigating the land loss process and its potential damage. A majority of land loss projections were derived solely from the natural processes, such as sea level rise, regional subsidence, and reduced sediment flows. However, sufficient evidence has shown that land loss in the MRD also relates to human-induced factors such as land fragmentation, neighborhood effects, urbanization, energy industrialization, and marine transportation. How to incorporate both natural and human factors into the land loss modeling stays a huge challenge. Using a coupled-natural and human (CNH) approach can help uncover the complex mechanism of land loss in the MRD, and provide more accurate spatiotemporal projection of land loss patterns and probability. This study uses quantitative approaches to investigate the relationships between land loss and a wide range of socio-ecological variables in the MRD. A model of land loss probability based on selected socio-ecological variables and its neighborhood effects will be derived through variogram and regression analyses. Then, we will simulate the land loss probability and patterns under different scenarios such as sea-level rise, changes in storm frequency and strength, and changes in population to evaluate the sustainability of the MRD. The outcome of this study will be a layer of pixels with information on the probability of land-water conversion. Knowledge gained from this study will provide valuable insights into the optimal mitigation strategies of land loss prevention and restoration and help build long-term sustainability in the Mississippi River Delta.

Organic Over-the-Horizon Targeting for the 2025 Surface Fleet

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

Detection Phit Probability of Hit Pk Probability of Kill PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy PMEL Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory...probability of hit ( Phit ). 2. Top-Level Functional Flow Block Diagram With the high-level functions of the project’s systems of systems properly

Geospatial association between adverse birth outcomes and arsenic in groundwater in New Hampshire, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xun Shi,; Ayotte, Joseph; Akikazu Onda,; Stephanie Miller,; Judy Rees,; Diane Gilbert-Diamond,; Onega, Tracy L; Gui, Jiang; Karagas, Margaret R.; Moeschler, John B

2015-01-01

There is increasing evidence of the role of arsenic in the etiology of adverse human reproductive outcomes. Because drinking water can be a major source of arsenic to pregnant women, the effect of arsenic exposure through drinking water on human birth may be revealed by a geospatial association between arsenic concentration in groundwater and birth problems, particularly in a region where private wells substantially account for water supply, like New Hampshire, USA. We calculated town-level rates of preterm birth and term low birth weight (term LBW) for New Hampshire, by using data for 1997–2009 stratified by maternal age. We smoothed the rates by using a locally weighted averaging method to increase the statistical stability. The town-level groundwater arsenic probability values are from three GIS data layers generated by the US Geological Survey: probability of local groundwater arsenic concentration >1 µg/L, probability >5 µg/L, and probability >10 µg/L. We calculated Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r) between the reproductive outcomes (preterm birth and term LBW) and the arsenic probability values, at both state and county levels. For preterm birth, younger mothers (maternal age <20) have a statewider = 0.70 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 2,000 births and the town mean arsenic level based on the data of probability >10 µg/L; for older mothers, r = 0.19 when the smoothing threshold = 3,500; a majority of county level r values are positive based on the arsenic data of probability >10 µg/L. For term LBW, younger mothers (maternal age <25) have a statewide r = 0.44 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 3,500 and town minimum arsenic concentration based on the data of probability >1 µg/L; for older mothers, r = 0.14 when the rates are smoothed with a threshold = 1,000 births and also adjusted by town median household income in 1999, and the arsenic values are the town minimum based on probability >10 µg/L. At the county level for younger mothers, positive r values prevail, but for older mothers, it is a mix. For both birth problems, the several most populous counties—with 60–80% of the state’s population and clustering at the southwest corner of the state—are largely consistent in having a positive r across different smoothing thresholds. We found evident spatial associations between the two adverse human reproductive outcomes and groundwater arsenic in New Hampshire, USA. However, the degree of associations and their sensitivity to different representations of arsenic level are variable. Generally, preterm birth has a stronger spatial association with groundwater arsenic than term LBW, suggesting an inconsistency in the impact of arsenic on the two reproductive outcomes. For both outcomes, younger maternal age has stronger spatial associations with groundwater arsenic.

Inconvenient Truth? Do Collective Bargaining Agreements Help Explain the Mobility of Teachers within School Districts? CEDR Working Paper. WP #2015-­1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldhaber, Dan; Lavery, Lesley; Theobald, Roddy

2015-01-01

We investigate patterns of teacher mobility in districts with different collective bargaining agreement (CBA) transfer provisions. We use detailed teacher-level longitudinal data from Washington State to estimate the probability that teachers of varying experience and effectiveness levels transfer out of their schools to another school in the…

Stochastic model of transcription factor-regulated gene expression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmakar, Rajesh; Bose, Indrani

2006-09-01

We consider a stochastic model of transcription factor (TF)-regulated gene expression. The model describes two genes, gene A and gene B, which synthesize the TFs and the target gene proteins, respectively. We show through analytic calculations that the TF fluctuations have a significant effect on the distribution of the target gene protein levels when the mean TF level falls in the highest sensitive region of the dose-response curve. We further study the effect of reducing the copy number of gene A from two to one. The enhanced TF fluctuations yield results different from those in the deterministic case. The probability that the target gene protein level exceeds a threshold value is calculated with the knowledge of the probability density functions associated with the TF and target gene protein levels. Numerical simulation results for a more detailed stochastic model are shown to be in agreement with those obtained through analytic calculations. The relevance of these results in the context of the genetic disorder haploinsufficiency is pointed out. Some experimental observations on the haploinsufficiency of the tumour suppressor gene, Nkx 3.1, are explained with the help of the stochastic model of TF-regulated gene expression.

The Effects of Heuristics and Apophenia on Probabilistic Choice.

PubMed

Ellerby, Zack W; Tunney, Richard J

2017-01-01

Given a repeated choice between two or more options with independent and identically distributed reward probabilities, overall pay-offs can be maximized by the exclusive selection of the option with the greatest likelihood of reward. The tendency to match response proportions to reward contingencies is suboptimal. Nevertheless, this behaviour is well documented. A number of explanatory accounts have been proposed for probability matching. These include failed pattern matching, driven by apophenia, and a heuristic-driven response that can be overruled with sufficient deliberation. We report two experiments that were designed to test the relative effects on choice behaviour of both an intuitive versus strategic approach to the task and belief that there was a predictable pattern in the reward sequence, through a combination of both direct experimental manipulation and post-experimental self-report. Mediation analysis was used to model the pathways of effects. Neither of two attempted experimental manipulations of apophenia, nor self-reported levels of apophenia, had a significant effect on proportions of maximizing choices. However, the use of strategy over intuition proved a consistent predictor of maximizing, across all experimental conditions. A parallel analysis was conducted to assess the effect of controlling for individual variance in perceptions of reward contingencies. Although this analysis suggested that apophenia did increase probability matching in the standard task preparation, this effect was found to result from an unforeseen relationship between self-reported apophenia and perceived reward probabilities. A Win-Stay Lose-Shift (WSLS ) analysis indicated no reliable relationship between WSLS and either intuition or strategy use.

How Historical Information Can Improve Extreme Value Analysis of Coastal Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Cozannet, G.; Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

2016-12-01

The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others. In a recent work (Bulteau et al., 2015), we investigated how historical information of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativize such outlying observations. We adapted a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, initially developed in the hydrology field (Reis and Stedinger, 2005), to the specific case of coastal water levels. We applied this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide gauge measurements and 8 historical events since 1890, the results showed a significant decrease in statistical uncertainties on return levels when historical information is used. Also, Xynthia's water level no longer appeared as an outlier and we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

The impact of precarious employment on mental health: The case of Italy.

PubMed

Moscone, F; Tosetti, E; Vittadini, G

2016-06-01

Although there has been a sizeable empirical literature measuring the effect of job precariousness on the mental health of workers the debate is still open, and understanding the true nature of such relationship has important policy implications. In this paper, we investigate the impact of precarious employment on mental health using a unique, very large data set that matches information on job contracts for over 2.7 million employees in Italy followed over the years 2007-2011, with their psychotropic medication prescription. We examine the causal effects of temporary contracts, their duration and the number of contract changes during the year on the probability of having one or more prescriptions for medication to treat mental health problems. To this end, we estimate a dynamic Probit model, and deal with the potential endogeneity of regressors by adopting an instrumental variables approach. As instruments, we use firm-level probabilities of being a temporary worker as well as other firm-level variables that do not depend on the mental illness status of the workers. Our results show that the probability of psychotropic medication prescription is higher for workers under temporary job contracts. More days of work under temporary contract as well as frequent changes in temporary contract significantly increase the probability of developing mental health problems that need to be medically treated. We also find that moving from permanent to temporary employment increases mental illness; symmetrically, although with a smaller effect in absolute value, moving from temporary to permanent employment tends to reduce it. Policy interventions aimed at increasing the flexibility of the labour market through an increase of temporary contracts should also take into account the social and economic cost of these reforms, in terms of psychological wellbeing of employees. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Coal leasing and taxation. Coal policy paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brody, S.E.; DeVries, A.H.

1981-01-01

The paper presents background information on current and proposed approaches to coal leasing and taxation, at both the State and federal levels. In addition, it discusses both the governmental objectives and probable economic effects of various combinations of leasing and taxation policies.

Probability of detecting atrazine/desethyl-atrazine and elevated concentrations of nitrate plus nitrate as nitrogen in ground water in the Idaho part of the western Snake River Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donato, Mary M.

2000-01-01

As ground water continues to provide an ever-growing proportion of Idaho?s drinking water, concerns about the quality of that resource are increasing. Pesticides (most commonly, atrazine/desethyl-atrazine, hereafter referred to as atrazine) and nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen (hereafter referred to as nitrate) have been detected in many aquifers in the State. To provide a sound hydrogeologic basis for atrazine and nitrate management in southern Idaho—the largest region of land and water use in the State—the U.S. Geological Survey produced maps showing the probability of detecting these contaminants in ground water in the upper Snake River Basin (published in a 1998 report) and the western Snake River Plain (published in this report). The atrazine probability map for the western Snake River Plain was constructed by overlaying ground-water quality data with hydrogeologic and anthropogenic data in a geographic information system (GIS). A data set was produced in which each well had corresponding information on land use, geology, precipitation, soil characteristics, regional depth to ground water, well depth, water level, and atrazine use. These data were analyzed by logistic regression using a statistical software package. Several preliminary multivariate models were developed and those that best predicted the detection of atrazine were selected. The multivariate models then were entered into a GIS and the probability maps were produced. Land use, precipitation, soil hydrologic group, and well depth were significantly correlated with atrazine detections in the western Snake River Plain. These variables also were important in the 1998 probability study of the upper Snake River Basin. The effectiveness of the probability models for atrazine might be improved if more detailed data were available for atrazine application. A preliminary atrazine probability map for the entire Snake River Plain in Idaho, based on a data set representing that region, also was produced. In areas where this map overlaps the 1998 map of the upper Snake River Basin, the two maps show broadly similar probabilities of detecting atrazine. Logistic regression also was used to develop a preliminary statistical model that predicts the probability of detecting elevated nitrate in the western Snake River Plain. A nitrate probability map was produced from this model. Results showed that elevated nitrate concentrations were correlated with land use, soil organic content, well depth, and water level. Detailed information on nitrate input, specifically fertilizer application, might have improved the effectiveness of this model.

Baseline adjustments for binary data in repeated cross-sectional cluster randomized trials.

PubMed

Nixon, R M; Thompson, S G

2003-09-15

Analysis of covariance models, which adjust for a baseline covariate, are often used to compare treatment groups in a controlled trial in which individuals are randomized. Such analysis adjusts for any baseline imbalance and usually increases the precision of the treatment effect estimate. We assess the value of such adjustments in the context of a cluster randomized trial with repeated cross-sectional design and a binary outcome. In such a design, a new sample of individuals is taken from the clusters at each measurement occasion, so that baseline adjustment has to be at the cluster level. Logistic regression models are used to analyse the data, with cluster level random effects to allow for different outcome probabilities in each cluster. We compare the estimated treatment effect and its precision in models that incorporate a covariate measuring the cluster level probabilities at baseline and those that do not. In two data sets, taken from a cluster randomized trial in the treatment of menorrhagia, the value of baseline adjustment is only evident when the number of subjects per cluster is large. We assess the generalizability of these findings by undertaking a simulation study, and find that increased precision of the treatment effect requires both large cluster sizes and substantial heterogeneity between clusters at baseline, but baseline imbalance arising by chance in a randomized study can always be effectively adjusted for. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A New Role for Local Police in Radiological Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

levels of polonium 210 to warrant a health 63 International Atomic Energy Commission, 21. 64...Probability of occur. (P) Area affected Effects on Man’s health Environment/ Economics Psychological Effects Risk...isotope such as Polonium 210 , the material that was used to kill former KGB officer Alexander Litvinenko, has been proposed by Zimmeran as a

Importing health conditions of expatriate workers into the United Arab Emirates.

PubMed

Newson-Smith, Mark S

2010-07-01

There are around 3.5 million workers in the United Arab Emirates, more than 80% of whom are expatriates. Among offshore workers, levels of obesity reflected the relative prevalence of the condition in their home countries and exceeded their respective national averages. Levels of hypertension and diabetes in these groups were lower than the national averages, probably because of the healthy worker effect. The level of obesity probably reflected the sedentary nature of their jobs. The presence of hepatitis C antibodies was almost exclusive to Egyptian workers. In a downstream oil and gas business, the prevalence of obesity also reflected the prevalences in the respective home countries, increasing greatly in existing employees when compared with those attending for preemployment health evaluations. Increases in the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes were also found in this group. One possible explanation is the impact of the changed environment on underlying susceptibility to these conditions.

Mining disease fingerprints from within genetic pathways.

PubMed

Nabhan, Ahmed Ragab; Sarkar, Indra Neil

2012-01-01

Mining biological networks can be an effective means to uncover system level knowledge out of micro level associations, such as encapsulated in genetic pathways. Analysis of human disease genetic pathways can lead to the identification of major mechanisms that may underlie disorders at an abstract functional level. The focus of this study was to develop an approach for structural pattern analysis and classification of genetic pathways of diseases. A probabilistic model was developed to capture characteristic components ('fingerprints') of functionally annotated pathways. A probability estimation procedure of this model searched for fingerprints in each disease pathway while improving probability estimates of model parameters. The approach was evaluated on data from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (consisting of 56 pathways across seven disease categories). Based on the achieved average classification accuracy of up to ~77%, the findings suggest that these fingerprints may be used for classification and discovery of genetic pathways.

Mining Disease Fingerprints From Within Genetic Pathways

PubMed Central

Nabhan, Ahmed Ragab; Sarkar, Indra Neil

2012-01-01

Mining biological networks can be an effective means to uncover system level knowledge out of micro level associations, such as encapsulated in genetic pathways. Analysis of human disease genetic pathways can lead to the identification of major mechanisms that may underlie disorders at an abstract functional level. The focus of this study was to develop an approach for structural pattern analysis and classification of genetic pathways of diseases. A probabilistic model was developed to capture characteristic components (‘fingerprints’) of functionally annotated pathways. A probability estimation procedure of this model searched for fingerprints in each disease pathway while improving probability estimates of model parameters. The approach was evaluated on data from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (consisting of 56 pathways across seven disease categories). Based on the achieved average classification accuracy of up to ∼77%, the findings suggest that these fingerprints may be used for classification and discovery of genetic pathways. PMID:23304411

Seeing the Forest when Entry Is Unlikely: Probability and the Mental Representation of Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wakslak, Cheryl J.; Trope, Yaacov; Liberman, Nira; Alony, Rotem

2006-01-01

Conceptualizing probability as psychological distance, the authors draw on construal level theory (Y. Trope & N. Liberman, 2003) to propose that decreasing an event's probability leads individuals to represent the event by its central, abstract, general features (high-level construal) rather than by its peripheral, concrete, specific features…

Probability of assertive behaviour, interpersonal anxiety and self-efficacy of South African registered dietitians.

PubMed

Paterson, Marie; Green, J M; Basson, C J; Ross, F

2002-02-01

There is little information on the probability of assertive behaviour, interpersonal anxiety and self-efficacy in the literature regarding dietitians. The objective of this study was to establish baseline information of these attributes and the factors affecting them. Questionnaires collecting biographical information and self-assessment psychometric scales measuring levels of probability of assertiveness, interpersonal anxiety and self-efficacy were mailed to 350 subjects, who comprised a random sample of dietitians registered with the Health Professions Council of South Africa. Forty-one per cent (n=145) of the sample responded. Self-assessment inventory results were compared to test levels of probability of assertive behaviour, interpersonal anxiety and self-efficacy. The inventory results were compared with the biographical findings to establish statistical relationships between the variables. The hypotheses were formulated before data collection. Dietitians had acceptable levels of probability of assertive behaviour and interpersonal anxiety. The probability of assertive behaviour was significantly lower than the level noted in the literature and was negatively related to interpersonal anxiety and positively related to self-efficacy.

Probability of Vitamin D Deficiency by Body Weight and Race/Ethnicity.

PubMed

Weishaar, Tom; Rajan, Sonali; Keller, Bryan

2016-01-01

While most physicians recognize that vitamin D status varies by skin color because darker skin requires more light to synthesize vitamin D than lighter skin, the importance of body weight to vitamin D status is a newer, less recognized, finding. The purpose of this study was to use nationally representative US data to determine the probability of vitamin D deficiency by body weight and skin color. Using data for individuals age ≥6 years from the 2001 to 2010 cycles of the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we calculated the effect of skin color, body weight, and age on vitamin D status. We determined the probability of deficiency within the normal range of body weight for 3 race/ethnicity groups at 3 target levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D. Darker skin colors and heavier body weights are independently and significantly associated with poorer vitamin D status. We report graphically the probability of vitamin D deficiency by body weight and skin color at vitamin D targets of 20 and 30 ng/mL. The effects of skin color and body weight on vitamin D status are large both statistically and clinically. Knowledge of these effects may facilitate diagnosis of vitamin D deficiency. © Copyright 2016 by the American Board of Family Medicine.

A predictive Bayesian approach to the design and analysis of bridging studies.

PubMed

Gould, A Lawrence; Jin, Tian; Zhang, Li Xin; Wang, William W B

2012-09-01

Pharmaceutical product development culminates in confirmatory trials whose evidence for the product's efficacy and safety supports regulatory approval for marketing. Regulatory agencies in countries whose patients were not included in the confirmatory trials often require confirmation of efficacy and safety in their patient populations, which may be accomplished by carrying out bridging studies to establish consistency for local patients of the effects demonstrated by the original trials. This article describes and illustrates an approach for designing and analyzing bridging studies that fully incorporates the information provided by the original trials. The approach determines probability contours or regions of joint predictive intervals for treatment effect and response variability, or endpoints of treatment effect confidence intervals, that are functions of the findings from the original trials, the sample sizes for the bridging studies, and possible deviations from complete consistency with the original trials. The bridging studies are judged consistent with the original trials if their findings fall within the probability contours or regions. Regulatory considerations determine the region definitions and appropriate probability levels. Producer and consumer risks provide a way to assess alternative region and probability choices. [Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the Publisher's online edition of the Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics for the following free supplemental resource: Appendix 2: R code for Calculations.].

Geospatial Association between Low Birth Weight and Arsenic in Groundwater in New Hampshire, USA

PubMed Central

Shi, Xun; Ayotte, Joseph D.; Onda, Akikazu; Miller, Stephanie; Rees, Judy; Gilbert-Diamond, Diane; Onega, Tracy; Gui, Jiang; Karagas, Margaret; Moeschler, John

2015-01-01

Background There is increasing evidence of the role of arsenic in the etiology of adverse human reproductive outcomes. Since drinking water can be a major source of arsenic to pregnant women, the effect of arsenic exposure through drinking water on human birth may be revealed by a geospatial association between arsenic concentration in groundwater and birth problems, particularly in a region where private wells substantially account for water supply, like New Hampshire, US. Methods We calculated town-level rates of preterm birth and term low birth weight (term LBW) for New Hampshire, using data for 1997-2009 and stratified by maternal age. We smoothed the rates using a locally-weighted averaging method to increase the statistical stability. The town-level groundwater arsenic values are from three GIS data layers generated by the US Geological Survey: probability of local groundwater arsenic concentration > 1 μg/L, probability > 5 μg/L, and probability > 10 μg/L. We calculated Pearson's correlation coefficients (r) between the reproductive outcomes (preterm birth and term LBW) and the arsenic values, at both state and county levels. Results For preterm birth, younger mothers (maternal age < 20) have a statewide r = 0.70 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 2,000 births and the town mean arsenic level based on the data of probability > 10 μg/L; For older mothers, r = 0.19 when the smoothing threshold = 3,500; A majority of county level r values are positive based on the arsenic data of probability > 10 μg/L. For term LBW, younger mothers (maternal age < 25) have a statewide r = 0.44 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 3,500 and town minimum arsenic level based on the data of probability > 1 μg/L; For older mothers, r = 0.14 when the rates are smoothed with a threshold = 1,000 births and also adjusted by town median household income in 1999, and the arsenic values are the town minimum based on probability > 10 μg/L. At the county level, for younger mothers positive r values prevail, but for older mothers it is a mix. For both birth problems, the several most populous counties - with 60-80% of the state's population and clustering at the southwest corner of the state – are largely consistent in having a positive r across different smoothing thresholds. Conclusion We found evident spatial associations between the two adverse human reproductive outcomes and groundwater arsenic in New Hampshire, US. However, the degree of associations and their sensitivity to different representations of arsenic level are variable. Generally, preterm birth has a stronger spatial association with groundwater arsenic than term LBW, suggesting an inconsistency in the impact of arsenic on the two reproductive outcomes. For both outcomes, younger maternal age has stronger spatial associations with groundwater arsenic. PMID:25326895

Invasion resistance arises in strongly interacting species-rich model competition communities.

PubMed Central

Case, T J

1990-01-01

I assemble stable multispecies Lotka-Volterra competition communities that differ in resident species number and average strength (and variance) of species interactions. These are then invaded with randomly constructed invaders drawn from the same distribution as the residents. The invasion success rate and the fate of the residents are determined as a function of community-and species-level properties. I show that the probability of colonization success for an invader decreases with community size and the average strength of competition (alpha). Communities composed of many strongly interacting species limit the invasion possibilities of most similar species. These communities, even for a superior invading competitor, set up a sort of "activation barrier" that repels invaders when they invade at low numbers. This "priority effect" for residents is not assumed a priori in my description for the individual population dynamics of these species; rather it emerges because species-rich and strongly interacting species sets have alternative stable states that tend to disfavor species at low densities. These models point to community-level rather than invader-level properties as the strongest determinant of differences in invasion success. The probability of extinction for a resident species increases with community size, and the probability of successful colonization by the invader decreases. Thus an equilibrium community size results wherein the probability of a resident species' extinction just balances the probability of an invader's addition. Given the distribution of alpha it is now possible to predict the equilibrium species number. The results provide a logical framework for an island-biogeographic theory in which species turnover is low even in the face of persistent invasions and for the protection of fragile native species from invading exotics. PMID:11607132

Comparison of Annoyance from Railway Noise and Railway Vibration.

PubMed

Ögren, Mikael; Gidlöf-Gunnarsson, Anita; Smith, Michael; Gustavsson, Sara; Persson Waye, Kerstin

2017-07-19

The aim of this study is to compare vibration exposure to noise exposure from railway traffic in terms of equal annoyance, i.e., to determine when a certain noise level is equally annoying as a corresponding vibration velocity. Based on questionnaire data from the Train Vibration and Noise Effects (TVANE) research project from residential areas exposed to railway noise and vibration, the dose response relationship for annoyance was estimated. By comparing the relationships between exposure and annoyance for areas both with and without significant vibration exposure, the noise levels and vibration velocities that had an equal probability of causing annoyance was determined using logistic regression. The comparison gives a continuous mapping between vibration velocity in the ground and a corresponding noise level at the facade that are equally annoying. For equivalent noise level at the facade compared to maximum weighted vibration velocity in the ground the probability of annoyance is approximately 20% for 59 dB or 0.48 mm/s, and about 40% for 63 dB or 0.98 mm/s.

Comparing the Probability Related Misconceptions of Pupils at Different Education Levels=Usporedba pogrješnih predodžaba o konceptima vjerojatnosti kod ucenika razlicitog stupnja obrazovanja

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gürbüz, Ramazan; Birgin, Osman; Çatlioglu, Hakan

2012-01-01

The aim of the paper is to compare and evaluate the probability-related misconceptions of pupils at different education levels. A cross-sectional/age study was thus conducted with 540 pupils in 5th-8th grades. An instrument, comprising six questions on the concepts of compound events, probability of an event and probability comparisons, was used.…

Defense strategies for cloud computing multi-site server infrastructures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S.; Ma, Chris Y. T.; He, Fei

We consider cloud computing server infrastructures for big data applications, which consist of multiple server sites connected over a wide-area network. The sites house a number of servers, network elements and local-area connections, and the wide-area network plays a critical, asymmetric role of providing vital connectivity between them. We model this infrastructure as a system of systems, wherein the sites and wide-area network are represented by their cyber and physical components. These components can be disabled by cyber and physical attacks, and also can be protected against them using component reinforcements. The effects of attacks propagate within the systems, andmore » also beyond them via the wide-area network.We characterize these effects using correlations at two levels using: (a) aggregate failure correlation function that specifies the infrastructure failure probability given the failure of an individual site or network, and (b) first-order differential conditions on system survival probabilities that characterize the component-level correlations within individual systems. We formulate a game between an attacker and a provider using utility functions composed of survival probability and cost terms. At Nash Equilibrium, we derive expressions for the expected capacity of the infrastructure given by the number of operational servers connected to the network for sum-form, product-form and composite utility functions.« less

Identification of water quality management policy of watershed system with multiple uncertain interactions using a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming approach.

PubMed

Liu, Jing; Li, Yongping; Huang, Guohe; Fu, Haiyan; Zhang, Junlong; Cheng, Guanhui

2017-06-01

In this study, a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming (MRPP) method is proposed for supporting water quality management under multiple uncertainties. The MRPP method can handle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-random-boundary intervals, probability distributions, and interval numbers, and analyze the effects of uncertainties as well as their interactions on modeling outputs. It is applied to plan water quality management in the Xiangxihe watershed. Results reveal that a lower probability of satisfying the objective function (θ) as well as a higher probability of violating environmental constraints (q i ) would correspond to a higher system benefit with an increased risk of violating system feasibility. Chemical plants are the major contributors to biological oxygen demand (BOD) and total phosphorus (TP) discharges; total nitrogen (TN) would be mainly discharged by crop farming. It is also discovered that optimistic decision makers should pay more attention to the interactions between chemical plant and water supply, while decision makers who possess a risk-averse attitude would focus on the interactive effect of q i and benefit of water supply. The findings can help enhance the model's applicability and identify a suitable water quality management policy for environmental sustainability according to the practical situations.

Tracing the cigarette epidemic: an age-period-cohort study of education, gender and smoking using a pseudo-panel approach.

PubMed

Vedøy, Tord F

2014-11-01

This study examined if temporal variations in daily cigarette smoking and never smoking among groups with different levels of education fit the pattern proposed by the theory of diffusion of innovations (TDI), while taking into account the separate effects of age, period and birth cohort (APC). Aggregated data from nationally representative interview surveys from Norway from 1976 to 2010 was used to calculate probabilities of smoking using an APC approach in which the period variable was normalized to pick up short term cyclical effects. Results showed that educational differences in smoking over time were more strongly determined by birth cohort membership than variations in smoking behavior across the life course. The probability of daily smoking decreased faster across cohorts among higher compared to lower educated. In contrast, the change in probability of never having smoked across cohorts was similar in the two education groups, but stronger among men compared to women. Moreover, educational differences in both daily and never smoking increased among early cohorts and leveled off among late cohorts. The results emphasizes the importance of birth cohort for social change and are consistent with TDI, which posits that smoking behavior diffuse through the social structure over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sex Differences in Mathematics Attainment at GCE Ordinary Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Robert

1976-01-01

In a comparison of mathematical abilities of boys and girls, after allowing for school effects, boys are seen to excel on problems involving scale or measurement, probability, and space-time relationships. Possible explanations for the observed differences are made. (Author/AV)

levels and sociodemographic correlates of accelerometer-based physical activity in Irish children: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Li, Xia; Kearney, Patricia M; Keane, Eimear; Harrington, Janas M; Fitzgerald, Anthony P

2017-06-01

The aim of this study was to explore levels and sociodemographic correlates of physical activity (PA) over 1 week using accelerometer data. Accelerometer data was collected over 1 week from 1075 8-11-year-old children in the cross-sectional Cork Children's Lifestyle Study. Threshold values were used to categorise activity intensity as sedentary, light, moderate or vigorous. Questionnaires collected data on demographic factors. Smoothed curves were used to display minute by minute variations. Binomial regression was used to identify factors correlated with the probability of meeting WHO 60 min moderate to vigorous PA guidelines. Overall, 830 children (mean (SD) age: 9.9(0.7) years, 56.3% boys) were included. From the binomial multiple regression analysis, boys were found more likely to meet guidelines (probability ratio 1.17, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.28) than girls. Older children were less likely to meet guidelines than younger children (probability ratio 0.91, CI 0.87 to 0.95). Normal weight children were more likely than overweight and obese children to meet guidelines (probability ratio 1.25, CI 1.16 to 1.34). Children in urban areas were more likely to meet guidelines than those in rural areas (probability ratio 1.19, CI 1.07 to 1.33). Longer daylight length days were associated with greater probability of meeting guidelines compared to shorter daylight length days. PA levels differed by individual factors including age, gender and weight status as well as by environmental factors including residence and daylight length. Less than one-quarter of children (26.8% boys, 16.2% girls) meet guidelines. Effective intervention policies are urgently needed to increase PA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The impact of education on the probability of receiving periodontal treatment. Causal effects measured by using the introduction of a school reform in Norway.

PubMed

Grytten, Jostein; Skau, Irene

2017-09-01

The aim of the present study was to estimate the causal effect of education on the probability of receiving periodontal treatment in the adult Norwegian population. In Norway, a substantial part of the cost of periodontal treatment is subsidized by the National Insurance Scheme. In that case, one might expect that the influence of individual resources, such as education, on receiving treatment would be reduced or eliminated. Causal effects were estimated by using data on a school reform in Norway. During the period 1960-1972, all municipalities in Norway were required to increase the number of compulsory years of schooling from seven to nine years. The education reform was used to create exogenous variation in the education variable. The education data were combined with large sets of data from the Norwegian Health Economics Administration and Statistics Norway. Since municipalities implemented the reform at different times, we have both cross-sectional and time-series variation in the reform instrument. Thus we were able to estimate the effect of education on the probability of receiving periodontal treatment by controlling for municipality fixed effects and trend variables. The probability of receiving periodontal treatment increased by 1.4-1.8 percentage points per additional year of schooling. This is a reasonably strong effect, which indicates that policies to increase the level of education in the population can be an effective tool to improve oral health, including periodontal health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Software Acquisition Process (SWAP) Model FY81

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

experience. In addition, the manpower accounting techniques and the effects of resource limitation are described below. a. Contractor Personnel. Five job...developed are each oriented to a specific type of developmental activity. Between them, they account for all types of activities in the acquisition...manning levels and duration; Decision Box probability; and project staffing levels. They take into account the overall size of the project and the

Alternate methods for FAAT S-curve generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaufman, A.M.

The FAAT (Foreign Asset Assessment Team) assessment methodology attempts to derive a probability of effect as a function of incident field strength. The probability of effect is the likelihood that the stress put on a system exceeds its strength. In the FAAT methodology, both the stress and strength are random variables whose statistical properties are estimated by experts. Each random variable has two components of uncertainty: systematic and random. The systematic uncertainty drives the confidence bounds in the FAAT assessment. Its variance can be reduced by improved information. The variance of the random uncertainty is not reducible. The FAAT methodologymore » uses an assessment code called ARES to generate probability of effect curves (S-curves) at various confidence levels. ARES assumes log normal distributions for all random variables. The S-curves themselves are log normal cumulants associated with the random portion of the uncertainty. The placement of the S-curves depends on confidence bounds. The systematic uncertainty in both stress and strength is usually described by a mode and an upper and lower variance. Such a description is not consistent with the log normal assumption of ARES and an unsatisfactory work around solution is used to obtain the required placement of the S-curves at each confidence level. We have looked into this situation and have found that significant errors are introduced by this work around. These errors are at least several dB-W/cm{sup 2} at all confidence levels, but they are especially bad in the estimate of the median. In this paper, we suggest two alternate solutions for the placement of S-curves. To compare these calculational methods, we have tabulated the common combinations of upper and lower variances and generated the relevant S-curves offsets from the mode difference of stress and strength.« less

Transitional probability-based model for HPV clearance in HIV-1-positive adolescent females.

PubMed

Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Sudenga, Staci L; Wilson, Craig M; Levitan, Emily B; Shrestha, Sadeep

2012-01-01

HIV-1-positive patients clear the human papillomavirus (HPV) infection less frequently than HIV-1-negative. Datasets for estimating HPV clearance probability often have irregular measurements of HPV status and risk factors. A new transitional probability-based model for estimation of probability of HPV clearance was developed to fully incorporate information on HIV-1-related clinical data, such as CD4 counts, HIV-1 viral load (VL), highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), and risk factors (measured quarterly), and HPV infection status (measured at 6-month intervals). Data from 266 HIV-1-positive and 134 at-risk HIV-1-negative adolescent females from the Reaching for Excellence in Adolescent Care and Health (REACH) cohort were used in this study. First, the associations were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazard model, and the variables that demonstrated significant effects on HPV clearance were included in transitional probability models. The new model established the efficacy of CD4 cell counts as a main clearance predictor for all type-specific HPV phylogenetic groups. The 3-month probability of HPV clearance in HIV-1-infected patients significantly increased with increasing CD4 counts for HPV16/16-like (p<0.001), HPV18/18-like (p<0.001), HPV56/56-like (p = 0.05), and low-risk HPV (p<0.001) phylogenetic groups, with the lowest probability found for HPV16/16-like infections (21.60±1.81% at CD4 level 200 cells/mm(3), p<0.05; and 28.03±1.47% at CD4 level 500 cells/mm(3)). HIV-1 VL was a significant predictor for clearance of low-risk HPV infections (p<0.05). HAART (with protease inhibitor) was significant predictor of probability of HPV16 clearance (p<0.05). HPV16/16-like and HPV18/18-like groups showed heterogeneity (p<0.05) in terms of how CD4 counts, HIV VL, and HAART affected probability of clearance of each HPV infection. This new model predicts the 3-month probability of HPV infection clearance based on CD4 cell counts and other HIV-1-related clinical measurements.

The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population.

PubMed Central

Park, A. W.; Wood, J. L. N.; Daly, J. M.; Newton, J. R.; Glass, K.; Henley, W.; Mumford, J. A.; Grenfell, B. T.

2004-01-01

We assess the effects of strain heterology (strains that are immunologically similar but not identical) on equine influenza in a vaccinated population. Using data relating to individual animals, for both homologous and heterologous vaccinees, we estimate distributions for the latent and infectious periods, quantify the risk of becoming infected in terms of the quantity of cross-reactive antibodies to a key surface protein of the virus (haemagglutinin) and estimate the probability of excreting virus (i.e. becoming infectious) given that infection has occurred. The data suggest that the infectious period, the risk of becoming infected (for a given vaccine-induced level of cross-reactive antibodies) and the probability of excreting virus are increased for heterologously vaccinated animals when compared with homologously vaccinated animals. The data are used to parameterize a modified susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered/resistant (SEIR) model, which shows that these relatively small differences combine to have a large effect at the population level, where populations of heterologous vaccinees face a significantly increased risk of an epidemic occurring. PMID:15306299

Inference for binomial probability based on dependent Bernoulli random variables with applications to meta‐analysis and group level studies

PubMed Central

Bakbergenuly, Ilyas; Morgenthaler, Stephan

2016-01-01

We study bias arising as a result of nonlinear transformations of random variables in random or mixed effects models and its effect on inference in group‐level studies or in meta‐analysis. The findings are illustrated on the example of overdispersed binomial distributions, where we demonstrate considerable biases arising from standard log‐odds and arcsine transformations of the estimated probability p^, both for single‐group studies and in combining results from several groups or studies in meta‐analysis. Our simulations confirm that these biases are linear in ρ, for small values of ρ, the intracluster correlation coefficient. These biases do not depend on the sample sizes or the number of studies K in a meta‐analysis and result in abysmal coverage of the combined effect for large K. We also propose bias‐correction for the arcsine transformation. Our simulations demonstrate that this bias‐correction works well for small values of the intraclass correlation. The methods are applied to two examples of meta‐analyses of prevalence. PMID:27192062

Possible neurologic effects of aspartame, a widely used food additive.

PubMed Central

Maher, T J; Wurtman, R J

1987-01-01

The artificial sweetener aspartame (L-aspartyl-L-phenylalanyl-methyl ester), is consumed, primarily in beverages, by a very large number of Americans, causing significant elevations in plasma and, probably, brain phenylalanine levels. Anecdotal reports suggest that some people suffer neurologic or behavioral reactions in association with aspartame consumption. Since phenylalanine can be neurotoxic and can affect the synthesis of inhibitory monoamine neurotransmitters, the phenylalanine in aspartame could conceiveably mediate neurologic effects. If mice are given aspartame in doses that elevate plasma phenylalanine levels more than those of tyrosine (which probably occurs after any aspartame dose in humans), the frequency of seizures following the administration of an epileptogenic drug, pentylenetetrazole, is enhanced. This effect is simulated by equimolar phenylalanine and blocked by concurrent administration of valine, which blocks phenylalanine's entry into the brain. Aspartame also potentiates the induction of seizures by inhaled fluorothyl or by electroconvulsive shock. Perhaps regulations concerning the sale of food additives should be modified to require the reporting of adverse reactions and the continuing conduct of mandated safety research. PMID:3319565

Posttraumatic stress and depressive symptoms in a college population one year after the September 11 attacks: the effect of proximity.

PubMed

Blanchard, Edward B; Rowell, Dianna; Kuhn, Eric; Rogers, Rebecca; Wittrock, David

2005-01-01

As a follow-up to our earlier report [Behav. Res. Ther., in press] on the level of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS), depressive symptoms, and frequency of diagnoses of probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among college students at three public universities (Albany, NY, Augusta, GA, and Fargo, ND) resulting from the September 11, 2001. Terrorist attacks, we surveyed comparable groups of students (total, n = 1313) from these three institutions in the weeks following the first anniversary (2002) of the attacks. We found proximity effects (Albany higher than Augusta which was higher than Fargo) for PTSS and depressive symptoms but not for frequency of diagnoses of probable PTSD. Within the Albany site data, proximity of county of residence to New York City (NYC) also showed a proximity effect on PTSS. Although depressive symptoms were significantly different in 2002 versus 2001, the arithmetic differences in PTSS or in frequency of diagnoses of probable PTSD were not significant. The September 11 attacks continued to exert a psychic toll on college students even a year later.

An application of extreme value theory to the management of a hydroelectric dam.

PubMed

Minkah, Richard

2016-01-01

Assessing the probability of very low or high water levels is an important issue in the management of hydroelectric dams. In the case of the Akosombo dam, very low and high water levels result in load shedding of electrical power and flooding in communities downstream respectively. In this paper, we use extreme value theory to estimate the probability and return period of very low water levels that can result in load shedding or a complete shutdown of the dam's operations. In addition, we assess the probability and return period of high water levels near the height of the dam and beyond. This provides a framework for a possible extension of the dam to sustain the generation of electrical power and reduce the frequency of spillage that causes flooding in communities downstream. The results show that an extension of the dam can reduce the probability and prolong the return period of a flood. In addition, we found a negligible probability of a complete shutdown of the dam due to inadequate water level.

Simultaneous confidence sets for several effective doses.

PubMed

Tompsett, Daniel M; Biedermann, Stefanie; Liu, Wei

2018-04-03

Construction of simultaneous confidence sets for several effective doses currently relies on inverting the Scheffé type simultaneous confidence band, which is known to be conservative. We develop novel methodology to make the simultaneous coverage closer to its nominal level, for both two-sided and one-sided simultaneous confidence sets. Our approach is shown to be considerably less conservative than the current method, and is illustrated with an example on modeling the effect of smoking status and serum triglyceride level on the probability of the recurrence of a myocardial infarction. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matthews, M.V.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Reasenberg, P.A.

2002-01-01

We construct a probability model for rupture times on a recurrent earthquake source. Adding Brownian perturbations to steady tectonic loading produces a stochastic load-state process. Rupture is assumed to occur when this process reaches a critical-failure threshold. An earthquake relaxes the load state to a characteristic ground level and begins a new failure cycle. The load-state process is a Brownian relaxation oscillator. Intervals between events have a Brownian passage-time distribution that may serve as a temporal model for time-dependent, long-term seismic forecasting. This distribution has the following noteworthy properties: (1) the probability of immediate rerupture is zero; (2) the hazard rate increases steadily from zero at t = 0 to a finite maximum near the mean recurrence time and then decreases asymptotically to a quasi-stationary level, in which the conditional probability of an event becomes time independent; and (3) the quasi-stationary failure rate is greater than, equal to, or less than the mean failure rate because the coefficient of variation is less than, equal to, or greater than 1/???2 ??? 0.707. In addition, the model provides expressions for the hazard rate and probability of rupture on faults for which only a bound can be placed on the time of the last rupture. The Brownian relaxation oscillator provides a connection between observable event times and a formal state variable that reflects the macromechanics of stress and strain accumulation. Analysis of this process reveals that the quasi-stationary distance to failure has a gamma distribution, and residual life has a related exponential distribution. It also enables calculation of "interaction" effects due to external perturbations to the state, such as stress-transfer effects from earthquakes outside the target source. The influence of interaction effects on recurrence times is transient and strongly dependent on when in the loading cycle step pertubations occur. Transient effects may be much stronger than would be predicted by the "clock change" method and characteristically decay inversely with elapsed time after the perturbation.

Affective and cognitive factors influencing sensitivity to probabilistic information.

PubMed

Tyszka, Tadeusz; Sawicki, Przemyslaw

2011-11-01

In study 1 different groups of female students were randomly assigned to one of four probabilistic information formats. Five different levels of probability of a genetic disease in an unborn child were presented to participants (within-subject factor). After the presentation of the probability level, participants were requested to indicate the acceptable level of pain they would tolerate to avoid the disease (in their unborn child), their subjective evaluation of the disease risk, and their subjective evaluation of being worried by this risk. The results of study 1 confirmed the hypothesis that an experience-based probability format decreases the subjective sense of worry about the disease, thus, presumably, weakening the tendency to overrate the probability of rare events. Study 2 showed that for the emotionally laden stimuli, the experience-based probability format resulted in higher sensitivity to probability variations than other formats of probabilistic information. These advantages of the experience-based probability format are interpreted in terms of two systems of information processing: the rational deliberative versus the affective experiential and the principle of stimulus-response compatibility. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Measurement of the transition probability of the C III 190.9 nanometer intersystem line

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwong, Victor H. S.; Fang, Z.; Gibbons, T. T.; Parkinson, W. H.; Smith, Peter L.

1993-01-01

A radio-frequency ion trap has been used to store C(2+) ions created by electron bombardment of CO. The transition probability for the 2s2p 3Po1-2s2 1S0 intersystem line of C m has been measured by recording the radiative decay at 190.9 nm. The measured A-value is 121 +/- 7/s and agrees, within mutual uncertainty limits, with that of Laughlin et al. (1978), but is 20 percent larger than that of Nussbaumer and Storey (1978). The effective collision mixing rate coefficient among the fine structure levels of 3Po and the combined quenching and charge transfer rate coefficients out of the 3Po1 level with the CO source gas have also been measured.

A Clinically Meaningful Interpretation of the Prospective Investigation of Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis (PIOPED) II and III Data.

PubMed

Cronin, Paul; Dwamena, Ben A

2018-05-01

This study aimed to calculate the multiple-level likelihood ratios (LRs) and posttest probabilities for a positive, indeterminate, or negative test result for multidetector computed tomography pulmonary angiography (MDCTPA) ± computed tomography venography (CTV) and magnetic resonance pulmonary angiography (MRPA) ± magnetic resonance venography (MRV) for each clinical probability level (two-, three-, and four-level) for the nine most commonly used clinical prediction rules (CPRs) (Wells, Geneva, Miniati, and Charlotte). The study design is a review of observational studies with critical review of multiple cohort studies. The settings are acute care, emergency room care, and ambulatory care (inpatients and outpatients). Data were used to estimate pulmonary embolism (PE) pretest probability for each of the most commonly used CPRs at each probability level. Multiple-level LRs (positive, indeterminate, negative test) were generated and used to calculate posttest probabilities for MDCTPA, MDCTPA + CTV, MRPA, and MRPA + MRV from sensitivity and specificity results from Prospective Investigation of Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis (PIOPED) II and PIOPED III for each clinical probability level for each CPR. Nomograms were also created. The LRs for a positive test result were higher for MRPA compared to MDCTPA without venography (76 vs 20) and with venography (42 vs 18). LRs for a negative test result were lower for MDCTPA compared to MRPA without venography (0.18 vs 0.22) and with venography (0.12 vs 0.15). In the three-level Wells score, the pretest clinical probability of PE for a low, moderate, and high clinical probability score is 5.7, 23, and 49. The posttest probability for an initially low clinical probability PE for a positive, indeterminate, and negative test result, respectively, for MDCTPA is 54, 5 and 1; for MDCTPA + CTV is 52, 2, and 0.7; for MRPA is 82, 6, and 1; and for MRPA + MRV is 72, 3, and 1; for an initially moderate clinical probability PE for MDCTPA is 86, 22, and 5; for MDCTPA + CTV is 85, 10, and 4; for MRPA is 96, 25, and 6; and for MRPA + MRV is 93, 14, and 4; and for an initially high clinical probability of PE for MDCTPA is 95, 47, and 15; for MDCTPA + CTV is 95, 27, and 10; for MRPA is 99, 52, and 17; and for MRPA + MRV is 98, 34, and 13. For a positive test result, LRs were considerably higher for MRPA compared to MDCTPA. However, both a positive MRPA and MDCTPA have LRs >10 and therefore can confirm the presence of PE. Performing venography reduced the LR for a positive and negative test for both MDCTPA and MRPA. The nomograms give posttest probabilities for a positive, indeterminate, or negative test result for MDCTPA and MRPA (with and without venography) for each clinical probability level for each of the CPR. Copyright © 2018 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

EFFECT OF PERCEIVED SOCIAL SUPPORT ON THE LEVELS OF ANXIETY AND DEPRESSION OF HEMODIALYSIS PATIENTS

PubMed Central

Lilympaki, Ioanna; Makri, Andriana; Vlantousi, Kyriaki; Koutelekos, Ioannis; Babatsikou, Fotoula; Polikandrioti, Maria

2016-01-01

Purpose: of this study was to explore the effect of social support on the levels of anxiety and depression of hemodialysis patients. Material and Methods: 258 patients undergoing hemodialysis were enrolled. A questionnaire developed for the purpose of the study was used to collect data through the interview process. Apart from socio-demographic, clinical and other characteristics, the questionnaire also included the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS) to assess social support from significant others, family and friends, and the questionnaire Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADs) to assess the levels of anxiety and depression of patients. Results: 53,9% of the participants were male while 34,1% of the participants were >70 years old. 32,9% and 30,2% of the participants felt high levels of anxiety and depression, respectively. Analysis of data showed a statistically significant association between anxiety/depression and social support from significant others, family and friends (p=<0,001 for all associations). In particular, patients with high levels of anxiety and depression felt less support from their significant others, family and friends. The multinomial logistic regression, showed a statistically significant effect of social support from friends in anxiety levels (p=0,004). An one point increase of the support from friends seems to reduce by 57% the probability of having high levels of anxiety. In addition, statistically significant effect of social support from significant others, family and friends was observed on the levels of depression (p=<0,001, p=0,001 & p=0,003, respectively). Specifically, an one point increase of the support from significant others, family and friends it was found to reduce by 77%, 71% and 56% respectively the probability of experiencing high levels of depression. Conclusions: Phyco-social evaluation is essential when providing holistic care to hemodialysis patients. PMID:27999485

Extending Findings of a Relation between Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Emotion Dysregulation among African American Individuals: A Preliminary Examination of the Moderating Role of Gender

PubMed Central

Weiss, Nicole H; Tull, Matthew T; Dixon-Gordon, Katherine L; Gratz, Kim L

2014-01-01

Although previous literature highlights the robust relationship between posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and emotion dysregulation across diverse racial/ethnic populations, few studies have examined factors that may influence levels of emotion dysregulation among African American individuals with PTSD. The goal of the current study was to extend previous findings by examining the moderating role of gender in the relationship between PTSD and emotion dysregulation in an African American sample. Participants were 107 African American undergraduates enrolled in a historically black college in the southern United States who reported exposure to a Criterion A traumatic event. Participants with probable PTSD (vs. no PTSD) reported significantly greater emotion dysregulation, both overall and across many of the specific dimensions. Although the main effect of gender on emotion dysregulation was not statistically significant, results revealed a significant interaction between gender and probable PTSD status for overall emotion dysregulation and the specific dimensions of difficulties controlling impulsive behaviors when distressed, limited access to emotion regulation strategies perceived as effective, and lack of emotional clarity. Specifically, post-hoc analyses revealed a significant association between probable PTSD and heightened emotion dysregulation among African American women but not African American men, with African American women with probable PTSD reporting significantly higher levels of these dimensions of emotion dysregulation than all other groups. Findings highlight the relevance of emotion dysregulation to PTSD among African American women in particular, suggesting the importance of assessing and treating emotion dysregulation within this population. PMID:25392846

The impact of lexical-semantic impairment and of executive dysfunction on the word reading performance of patients with probable Alzheimer dementia.

PubMed

Colombo, Lucia; Fonti, Cristina; Cappa, Stefano

2004-01-01

The influence of lexical-semantic impairment and of executive dysfunction on word naming performance was investigated in a group of patients with probable Alzheimer dementia (AD). The patients, who varied in the severity of the illness, were tested in a word naming task where they had to read aloud Italian three-syllable words with a dominant or subordinate stress pattern. These types of words have been shown to interact with frequency in normal adults [J. Exp. Psychol.: Hum. Percept. Perform. 18 (4) (1992) 987], so that the effect of the subordinate stress pattern (slower reading times) is only apparent for low frequency words. The frequency and stress effects on accuracy increased across dementia severity levels. Regression analyses showed that the impairment in reading low frequency words with subordinate stress depended largely on the level of lexical-semantic impairment, measured by a test of semantic memory and comprehension. Implications for the current reading models are discussed.

Polarization effects on quantum levels in InN/GaN quantum wells.

PubMed

Lin, Wei; Li, Shuping; Kang, Junyong

2009-12-02

Polarization effects on quantum states in InN/GaN quantum wells have been investigated by means of ab initio calculation and spectroscopic ellipsometry. Through the position-dependent partial densities of states, our results show that the polarization modified by the strain with different well thickness leads to an asymmetry band bending of the quantum well. The quantum levels are identified via the band structures and their square wave function distributions are analyzed by the partial charge densities. Further theoretical and experimental comparison of the imaginary part of the dielectric function show that the overall transition probability increases under larger polarization fields, which can be attributable to the fact that the excited quantum states of 2h have a greater overlap with 1e states and enhance other hole quantum states in the well by a hybridization. These results would provide a new approach to improve the transition probability and light emission by enhancing the polarization fields in a proper way.

A Markov chain model to evaluate the effect of CYP3A5 and ABCB1 polymorphisms on adverse events associated with tacrolimus in pediatric renal transplantation.

PubMed

Sy, Sherwin K B; Heuberger, Jules; Shilbayeh, Sireen; Conrado, Daniela J; Derendorf, Hartmut

2013-10-01

The SNP A6986G of the CYP3A5 gene (*3) results in a non-functional protein due to a splicing defect whereas the C3435T was associated with variable expression of the ABCB1 gene, due to protein instability. Part of the large interindividual variability in tacrolimus efficacy and toxicity can be accounted for by these genetic factors. Seventy-two individuals were examined for A6986G and C3435T polymorphism using a PCR-RFLP-based technique to estimate genotype and allele frequencies in the Jordanian population. The association of age, hematocrit, platelet count, CYP3A5, and ABCB1 polymorphisms with tacrolimus dose- and body-weight-normalized levels in the subset of 38 pediatric renal transplant patients was evaluated. A Markov model was used to evaluate the time-dependent probability of an adverse event occurrence by CYP3A5 phenotypes and ABCB1 genotypes. The time-dependent probability of adverse event was about double in CYP3A5 non-expressors compared to the expressors for the first 12 months of therapy. The CYP3A5 non-expressors had higher corresponding normalized tacrolimus levels compared to the expressors in the first 3 months. The correlation trend between probability of adverse events and normalized tacrolimus concentrations for the two CYP3A5 phenotypes persisted for the first 9 months of therapy. The differences among ABCB1 genotypes in terms of adverse events and normalized tacrolimus levels were only observed in the first 3 months of therapy. The information on CYP3A5 genotypes and tacrolimus dose requirement is important in designing effective programs toward management of tacrolimus side effects particularly for the initial dose when tacrolimus blood levels are not available for therapeutic drug monitoring.

Accurate potential energy curves, spectroscopic parameters, transition dipole moments, and transition probabilities of 21 low-lying states of the CO+ cation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Wei; Shi, Deheng; Zhang, Jicai; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

2018-05-01

This paper calculates the potential energy curves of 21 Λ-S and 42 Ω states, which arise from the first two dissociation asymptotes of the CO+ cation. The calculations are conducted using the complete active space self-consistent field method, which is followed by the valence internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with the Davidson correction. To improve the reliability and accuracy of the potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections, as well as the extrapolation of potential energies to the complete basis set limit are taken into account. The spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are determined. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels is evaluated. To better study the transition probabilities, the transition dipole moments are computed. The Franck-Condon factors and Einstein coefficients of some emissions are calculated. The radiative lifetimes are determined for a number of vibrational levels of several states. The transitions between different Λ-S states are evaluated. Spectroscopic routines for observing these states are proposed. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments, and transition probabilities reported in this paper can be considered to be very reliable and can be used as guidelines for detecting these states in an appropriate spectroscopy experiment, especially for the states that were very difficult to observe or were not detected in previous experiments.

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Effects of an Employee Wellness Program on Physiological Risk Factors, Job Satisfaction, and Monetary Savings in a South Texas University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamilton, Jacqueline

2009-01-01

An experimental study was conducted to investigate the effects of an Employee Wellness Program on physiological risk factors, job satisfaction, and monetary savings in a South Texas University. The non-probability sample consisted of 31 employees from lower income level positions. The employees were randomly assigned to the treatment group which…

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

Effect of Liquid Penetrant Sensitivity on Probability of Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, Bradford H.

2011-01-01

The objective of the task is to investigate the effect of liquid penetrant sensitivity level on probability of detection (POD) of cracks in various metals. NASA-STD-5009 currently requires the use of only sensitivity level 4 liquid penetrants for NASA Standard Level inspections. This requirement is based on the fact that the data used to establish the reliably detectable flaw sizes penetrant inspection was from studies performed in the 1970s using penetrant deemed to be equivalent only to modern day sensitivity level 4 penetrants. However, many NDE contractors supporting NASA Centers routinely use sensitivity level 3 penetrants. Because of the new NASA-STD-5009 requirement, these contractors will have to either shift to sensitivity level 4 penetrants or perform formal POD demonstration tests to qualify their existing process. We propose a study to compare the POD generated for two penetrant manufactures, Sherwin and Magnaflux, and for the two most common penetrant inspection methods, water washable and post emulsifiable, hydrophilic. NDE vendors local to GSFC will be employed. A total of six inspectors will inspect a set of crack panels with a broad range of fatigue crack sizes. Each inspector will perform eight inspections of the panel set using the combination of methods and sensitivity levels described above. At least one inspector will also perform multiple inspections using a fixed technique to investigate repeatability. The hit/miss data sets will be evaluated using both the NASA generated DOEPOD software and the MIL-STD-1823 software.

A two-stage broadcast message propagation model in social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dan; Cheng, Shun-Jun

2016-11-01

Message propagation in social networks is becoming a popular topic in complex networks. One of the message types in social networks is called broadcast message. It refers to a type of message which has a unique and unknown destination for the publisher, such as 'lost and found'. Its propagation always has two stages. Due to this feature, rumor propagation model and epidemic propagation model have difficulty in describing this message's propagation accurately. In this paper, an improved two-stage susceptible-infected-removed model is proposed. We come up with the concept of the first forwarding probability and the second forwarding probability. Another part of our work is figuring out the influence to the successful message transmission chance in each level resulting from multiple reasons, including the topology of the network, the receiving probability, the first stage forwarding probability, the second stage forwarding probability as well as the length of the shortest path between the publisher and the relevant destination. The proposed model has been simulated on real networks and the results proved the model's effectiveness.

Personnel Management in the Military: Effects of Retirement Policies on the Retention of Personnel.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-01-01

observable characteristics as education level, AFQT scores, and promotion speed, see Ward and Tan (1984). 2 7EFMS is a decision support system being developed...34’For an operationalization of the concept of "quality" by looking at such observable characteristics as education level, AFQT scores, and * ’.,promotion...probabilities would have to deal with predicting the test scores for airmen by using information on entry characteristics such as education level and

The Effect of Repeated Irrigation with Water Containing Varying Levels of Total Organic Carbon on the Persistence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 on Baby Spinach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The California lettuce and leafy greens industry has adopted the Leafy Greens Marketing Agreement (LGMA), which allows for 126 Most Probable Number (MPN) generic E. coli/100ml in irrigation water. Repeat irrigation of baby spinach plants with water containing E. coli O157:H7 and different levels of...

Estimating Landholders’ Probability of Participating in a Stewardship Program, and the Implications for Spatial Conservation Priorities

PubMed Central

Adams, Vanessa M.; Pressey, Robert L.; Stoeckl, Natalie

2014-01-01

The need to integrate social and economic factors into conservation planning has become a focus of academic discussions and has important practical implications for the implementation of conservation areas, both private and public. We conducted a survey in the Daly Catchment, Northern Territory, to inform the design and implementation of a stewardship payment program. We used a choice model to estimate the likely level of participation in two legal arrangements - conservation covenants and management agreements - based on payment level and proportion of properties required to be managed. We then spatially predicted landholders’ probability of participating at the resolution of individual properties and incorporated these predictions into conservation planning software to examine the potential for the stewardship program to meet conservation objectives. We found that the properties that were least costly, per unit area, to manage were also the least likely to participate. This highlights a tension between planning for a cost-effective program and planning for a program that targets properties with the highest probability of participation. PMID:24892520

Disposable diapers decrease the incidence of neonatal infections compared to cloth diapers in a level II neonatal intensive care unit.

PubMed

Babu, M Chowdary; Tandur, Baswaraj; Sharma, Deepak; Murki, Srinivas

2015-08-01

To study whether disposable diapers decrease the incidence of neonatal infections compared with cloth diapers in a level II neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). All neonates admitted to the NICU and having duration of stay >48 h were enrolled. Those babies with signs and symptoms of infection were screened with septic screen and/or blood culture. The primary outcome of the study was incidence of probable sepsis. Of 253 babies enrolled in the study period, probable sepsis was present in 101 (39.9%) infants in the total study group and was higher in cloth diaper group as compared with disposable diaper group (p = 0.01). For an average NICU stay of 6 days, cloth diapers would cost Rs. 241 vs. Rs. 162 for disposable diaper for any infant. Usage of disposable diapers decrease the incidence of probable sepsis in babies admitted to NICU. It is also cost effective to use disposable diapers in the NICU. © The Author [2015]. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Intracranial Self-Stimulation to Evaluate Abuse Potential of Drugs

PubMed Central

Miller, Laurence L.

2014-01-01

Intracranial self-stimulation (ICSS) is a behavioral procedure in which operant responding is maintained by pulses of electrical brain stimulation. In research to study abuse-related drug effects, ICSS relies on electrode placements that target the medial forebrain bundle at the level of the lateral hypothalamus, and experimental sessions manipulate frequency or amplitude of stimulation to engender a wide range of baseline response rates or response probabilities. Under these conditions, drug-induced increases in low rates/probabilities of responding maintained by low frequencies/amplitudes of stimulation are interpreted as an abuse-related effect. Conversely, drug-induced decreases in high rates/probabilities of responding maintained by high frequencies/amplitudes of stimulation can be interpreted as an abuse-limiting effect. Overall abuse potential can be inferred from the relative expression of abuse-related and abuse-limiting effects. The sensitivity and selectivity of ICSS to detect abuse potential of many classes of abused drugs is similar to the sensitivity and selectivity of drug self-administration procedures. Moreover, similar to progressive-ratio drug self-administration procedures, ICSS data can be used to rank the relative abuse potential of different drugs. Strengths of ICSS in comparison with drug self-administration include 1) potential for simultaneous evaluation of both abuse-related and abuse-limiting effects, 2) flexibility for use with various routes of drug administration or drug vehicles, 3) utility for studies in drug-naive subjects as well as in subjects with controlled levels of prior drug exposure, and 4) utility for studies of drug time course. Taken together, these considerations suggest that ICSS can make significant contributions to the practice of abuse potential testing. PMID:24973197

Updates on the Clinical Evidenced Herb-Warfarin Interactions

PubMed Central

Ge, Beikang; Zhang, Zhen; Zuo, Zhong

2014-01-01

Increasing and inadvertent use of herbs makes herb-drug interactions a focus of research. Concomitant use of warfarin, a highly efficacious oral anticoagulant, and herbs causes major safety concerns due to the narrow therapeutic window of warfarin. This paper presents an update overview of clinical findings regarding herb-warfarin interaction, highlighting clinical outcomes, severity of documented interactions, and quality of clinical evidence. Among thirty-eight herbs, Cannabis, Chamomile, Cranberry, Garlic, Ginkgo, Grapefruit, Lycium, Red clover, and St. John's wort were evaluated to have major severity interaction with warfarin. Herbs were also classified on account of the likelihood of their supporting evidences for interaction. Four herbs were considered as highly probable to interact with warfarin (level I), three were estimated as probable (level II), and ten and twenty-one were possible (level III) and doubtful (level IV), respectively. The general mechanism of herb-warfarin interaction almost remains unknown, yet several pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic factors were estimated to influence the effectiveness of warfarin. Based on limited literature and information reported, we identified corresponding mechanisms of interactions for a small amount of “interacting herbs.” In summary, herb-warfarin interaction, especially the clinical effects of herbs on warfarin therapy should be further investigated through multicenter studies with larger sample sizes. PMID:24790635

Black hole as a point radiator and recoil effect on the brane world.

PubMed

Frolov, Valeri; Stojković, Dejan

2002-10-07

A small black hole attached to a brane in a higher-dimensional space emitting quanta into the bulk may leave the brane as a result of a recoil. We construct a field theory model in which such a black hole is described as a massive scalar particle with internal degrees of freedom. In this model, the probability of transition between the different internal levels is identical to the probability of thermal emission calculated for the Schwarzschild black hole. The discussed recoil effect implies that the thermal emission of the black holes, which might be created by interaction of high energy particles in colliders, could be terminated and the energy nonconservation can be observed in the brane experiments.

Differentiated protection services with failure probability guarantee for workflow-based applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Jin, Yaohui; Sun, Weiqiang; Hu, Weisheng

2010-12-01

A cost-effective and service-differentiated provisioning strategy is very desirable to service providers so that they can offer users satisfactory services, while optimizing network resource allocation. Providing differentiated protection services to connections for surviving link failure has been extensively studied in recent years. However, the differentiated protection services for workflow-based applications, which consist of many interdependent tasks, have scarcely been studied. This paper investigates the problem of providing differentiated services for workflow-based applications in optical grid. In this paper, we develop three differentiated protection services provisioning strategies which can provide security level guarantee and network-resource optimization for workflow-based applications. The simulation demonstrates that these heuristic algorithms provide protection cost-effectively while satisfying the applications' failure probability requirements.

Incorporating Functional Genomic Information in Genetic Association Studies Using an Empirical Bayes Approach.

PubMed

Spencer, Amy V; Cox, Angela; Lin, Wei-Yu; Easton, Douglas F; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Walters, Kevin

2016-04-01

There is a large amount of functional genetic data available, which can be used to inform fine-mapping association studies (in diseases with well-characterised disease pathways). Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) prioritization via Bayes factors is attractive because prior information can inform the effect size or the prior probability of causal association. This approach requires the specification of the effect size. If the information needed to estimate a priori the probability density for the effect sizes for causal SNPs in a genomic region isn't consistent or isn't available, then specifying a prior variance for the effect sizes is challenging. We propose both an empirical method to estimate this prior variance, and a coherent approach to using SNP-level functional data, to inform the prior probability of causal association. Through simulation we show that when ranking SNPs by our empirical Bayes factor in a fine-mapping study, the causal SNP rank is generally as high or higher than the rank using Bayes factors with other plausible values of the prior variance. Importantly, we also show that assigning SNP-specific prior probabilities of association based on expert prior functional knowledge of the disease mechanism can lead to improved causal SNPs ranks compared to ranking with identical prior probabilities of association. We demonstrate the use of our methods by applying the methods to the fine mapping of the CASP8 region of chromosome 2 using genotype data from the Collaborative Oncological Gene-Environment Study (COGS) Consortium. The data we analysed included approximately 46,000 breast cancer case and 43,000 healthy control samples. © 2016 The Authors. *Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The effects of Earned Income Tax Credit payment expansion on maternal smoking.

PubMed

Averett, Susan; Wang, Yang

2013-11-01

The Earned Income Tax Credit is the largest antipoverty program in the USA. In 1993, the Earned Income Tax Credit benefit levels were changed significantly based on the number of children in the family such that families with two or more children experienced an exogenous expansion in their incomes. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort, we use a triple-difference plus fixed effects framework to examine the effect of this change on the probability of smoking among low-educated mothers. We find that the probability of smoking for White low-educated mothers of two or more children significantly decreased relative to those with only one child, and this result is robust to various specification tests. This result provides new evidence on the protective effect of income on health through changes in a health-related behavior and therefore has important policy implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The creation and evaluation of a model predicting the probability of conception in seasonal-calving, pasture-based dairy cows.

PubMed

Fenlon, Caroline; O'Grady, Luke; Doherty, Michael L; Dunnion, John; Shalloo, Laurence; Butler, Stephen T

2017-07-01

Reproductive performance in pasture-based production systems has a fundamentally important effect on economic efficiency. The individual factors affecting the probability of submission and conception are multifaceted and have been extensively researched. The present study analyzed some of these factors in relation to service-level probability of conception in seasonal-calving pasture-based dairy cows to develop a predictive model of conception. Data relating to 2,966 services from 737 cows on 2 research farms were used for model development and data from 9 commercial dairy farms were used for model testing, comprising 4,212 services from 1,471 cows. The data spanned a 15-yr period and originated from seasonal-calving pasture-based dairy herds in Ireland. The calving season for the study herds extended from January to June, with peak calving in February and March. A base mixed-effects logistic regression model was created using a stepwise model-building strategy and incorporated parity, days in milk, interservice interval, calving difficulty, and predicted transmitting abilities for calving interval and milk production traits. To attempt to further improve the predictive capability of the model, the addition of effects that were not statistically significant was considered, resulting in a final model composed of the base model with the inclusion of BCS at service. The models' predictions were evaluated using discrimination to measure their ability to correctly classify positive and negative cases. Precision, recall, F-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were calculated. Calibration tests measured the accuracy of the predicted probabilities. These included tests of overall goodness-of-fit, bias, and calibration error. Both models performed better than using the population average probability of conception. Neither of the models showed high levels of discrimination (base model AUC 0.61, final model AUC 0.62), possibly because of the narrow central range of conception rates in the study herds. The final model was found to reliably predict the probability of conception without bias when evaluated against the full external data set, with a mean absolute calibration error of 2.4%. The chosen model could be used to support a farmer's decision-making and in stochastic simulation of fertility in seasonal-calving pasture-based dairy cows. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic risk assessment of nitrate groundwater contamination from greenhouses in Albenga plain (Liguria, Italy) using lysimeters.

PubMed

Paladino, Ombretta; Seyedsalehi, Mahdi; Massabò, Marco

2018-09-01

The use of fertilizers in greenhouse-grown crops can pose a threat to groundwater quality and, consequently, to human beings and subterranean ecosystem, where intensive farming produces pollutants leaching. Albenga plain (Liguria, Italy) is an alluvial area of about 45km 2 historically devoted to farming. Recently the crops have evolved to greenhouses horticulture and floriculture production. In the area high levels of nitrates in groundwater have been detected. Lysimeters with three types of reconstituted soils (loamy sand, sandy clay loam and sandy loam) collected from different areas of Albenga plain were used in this study to evaluate the leaching loss of nitrate (NO 3 - ) over a period of 12weeks. Leaf lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) was selected as a representative green-grown crop. Each of the soil samples was treated with a slow release fertilizer, simulating the real fertilizing strategy of the tillage. In order to estimate the potential risk for aquifers as well as for organisms exposed via pore water, nitrate concentrations in groundwater were evaluated by applying a simplified attenuation model to the experimental data. Results were refined and extended from comparison of single effects and exposure values (Tier I level) up to the evaluation of probabilistic distributions of exposure and related effects (Tier II, III IV levels). HHRA suggested HI >1 and about 20% probability of exceeding RfD for all the greenhouses, regardless of the soil. ERA suggested HQ>100 for all the greenhouses; 93% probability of PNEC exceedance for greenhouses containing sand clay loam. The probability of exceeding LC50 for 5% of the species was about 40% and the probability corresponding to DBQ of DEC/EC50>0.001 was >90% for all the greenhouses. The significantly high risk, related to the detected nitrate leaching loss, can be attributed to excessive and inappropriate fertigation strategies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the regional variability of the probability of high trihalomethane occurrence in municipal drinking water.

PubMed

Cool, Geneviève; Lebel, Alexandre; Sadiq, Rehan; Rodriguez, Manuel J

2015-12-01

The regional variability of the probability of occurrence of high total trihalomethane (TTHM) levels was assessed using multilevel logistic regression models that incorporate environmental and infrastructure characteristics. The models were structured in a three-level hierarchical configuration: samples (first level), drinking water utilities (DWUs, second level) and natural regions, an ecological hierarchical division from the Quebec ecological framework of reference (third level). They considered six independent variables: precipitation, temperature, source type, seasons, treatment type and pH. The average probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the targeted threshold was 18.1%. The probability was influenced by seasons, treatment type, precipitations and temperature. The variance at all levels was significant, showing that the probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the threshold is most likely to be similar if located within the same DWU and within the same natural region. However, most of the variance initially attributed to natural regions was explained by treatment types and clarified by spatial aggregation on treatment types. Nevertheless, even after controlling for treatment type, there was still significant regional variability of the probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the threshold. Regional variability was particularly important for DWUs using chlorination alone since they lack the appropriate treatment required to reduce the amount of natural organic matter (NOM) in source water prior to disinfection. Results presented herein could be of interest to authorities in identifying regions with specific needs regarding drinking water quality and for epidemiological studies identifying geographical variations in population exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs).

Evaluating detection and estimation capabilities of magnetometer-based vehicle sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, David M.; Jacyna, Garry M.

2013-05-01

In an effort to secure the northern and southern United States borders, MITRE has been tasked with developing Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools that accurately capture the mapping between algorithm-level Measures of Performance (MOP) and system-level Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) for current/future surveillance systems deployed by the the Customs and Border Protection Office of Technology Innovations and Acquisitions (OTIA). This analysis is part of a larger M&S undertaking. The focus is on two MOPs for magnetometer-based Unattended Ground Sensors (UGS). UGS are placed near roads to detect passing vehicles and estimate properties of the vehicle's trajectory such as bearing and speed. The first MOP considered is the probability of detection. We derive probabilities of detection for a network of sensors over an arbitrary number of observation periods and explore how the probability of detection changes when multiple sensors are employed. The performance of UGS is also evaluated based on the level of variance in the estimation of trajectory parameters. We derive the Cramer-Rao bounds for the variances of the estimated parameters in two cases: when no a priori information is known and when the parameters are assumed to be Gaussian with known variances. Sample results show that UGS perform significantly better in the latter case.

Determining carnivore habitat use in a rubber/forest landscape in Brazil using multispecies occupancy models

PubMed Central

Flesher, Kevin M.; Lindell, Catherine; Vega de Oliveira, Téo; Maurer, Brian A.

2018-01-01

Understanding the factors that influence the presence and distribution of carnivores in human-dominated agricultural landscapes is one of the main challenges for biodiversity conservation, especially in landscapes where setting aside large protected areas is not feasible. Habitat use models of carnivore communities in rubber plantations are lacking despite the critical roles carnivores play in structuring ecosystems and the increasing expansion of rubber plantations. We investigated the habitat use of a mammalian carnivore community within a 4,200-ha rubber plantation/forest landscape in Bahia, Brazil. We placed two different brands of camera traps in a 90-site grid. We used a multispecies occupancy model to determine the probabilities of habitat use by each species and the effect of different brands of camera traps on their detection probabilities. Species showed significant differences in habitat use with domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) and crab-eating foxes (Cerdocyon thous) having higher probabilities of using rubber groves and coatis (Nasua nasua) having a higher probability of using forest. The moderate level of captures and low detection probabilities (≤ 0.1) of tayras (Eira barbara) and wildcats (Leopardus spp.) precluded a precise estimation of habitat use probabilities using the multispecies occupancy model. The different brands of camera traps had a significant effect on the detection probability of all species. Given that the carnivore community has persisted in this 70-year-old landscape, the results show the potential of rubber/forest landscapes to provide for the long-term conservation of carnivore communities in the Atlantic forest, especially in mosaics with 30–40% forest cover and guard patrolling systems. The results also provide insights for mitigating the impact of rubber production on biodiversity. PMID:29659594

Determination of the priority indexes for the oil refinery wastewater treatment process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chesnokova, M. G.; Myshlyavtsev, A. V.; Kriga, A. S.; Shaporenko, A. P.; Markelov, V. V.

2017-08-01

The wastewater biological treatment intensity and effectiveness are influenced by many factors: temperature, pH, presence and concentration of toxic substances, the biomass concentration et al. Regulation of them allows controlling the biological treatment process. Using the Bayesian theorem the link between changes was determined and the wastewater indexes normative limits exceeding influence for activated sludge characteristics alteration probability was evaluated. The estimation of total, or aposterioric, priority index presence probability, which characterizes the wastewater treatment level, is an important way to use the Bayesian theorem in activated sludge swelling prediction at the oil refinery biological treatment unit.

Surface physicochemical properties and decay of the low-lying isomer in the 229Th nucleus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borisyuk, P. V.; Kurel'chuk, U. N.; Vasil'ev, O. S.; Troyan, V. I.; Lebedinskii, Yu Yu; Tkalya, E. V.

2018-05-01

The effect of the 229Th nucleus proximity to the CsI surface on the decay probability of its anomalously low lying isomeric level is studied. Results of experimental and theoretical studies show that the CsI surface does not produce chemical bonding with Th and does not noticeably change its valence shells. Hence, it is an optimal substrate for measuring the probability of the 229Th isomer state decay via internal electron conversion. The half-life of the 229Thm isomer in the thorium atom is calculated for neutral chemical environment.

Human-computer interaction in multitask situations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouse, W. B.

1977-01-01

Human-computer interaction in multitask decisionmaking situations is considered, and it is proposed that humans and computers have overlapping responsibilities. Queueing theory is employed to model this dynamic approach to the allocation of responsibility between human and computer. Results of simulation experiments are used to illustrate the effects of several system variables including number of tasks, mean time between arrivals of action-evoking events, human-computer speed mismatch, probability of computer error, probability of human error, and the level of feedback between human and computer. Current experimental efforts are discussed and the practical issues involved in designing human-computer systems for multitask situations are considered.

Predictors of specific phobia in children with Williams syndrome.

PubMed

Pitts, C H; Klein-Tasman, B P; Osborne, J W; Mervis, C B

2016-10-01

Specific phobia (SP) is the most common anxiety disorder among children with Williams syndrome (WS); prevalence rates derived from Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-based diagnostic interviews range from 37% to 56%. We evaluated the effects of gender, age, intellectual abilities and/or behaviour regulation difficulties on the likelihood that a child with WS would be diagnosed with SP. A total of 194 6-17 year-olds with WS were evaluated. To best characterise the relations between the predictors and the probability of a SP diagnosis, we explored not only possible linear effects but also curvilinear effects. No gender differences were detected. As age increased, the likelihood of receiving a SP diagnosis decreased. As IQ increased, the probability of receiving a SP diagnosis also decreased. Behaviour regulation difficulties were the strongest predictor of a positive diagnosis. A quadratic relation was detected: The probability of receiving a SP diagnosis gradually rose as behaviour regulation difficulties increased. However, once behaviour regulation difficulties approached the clinical range, the probability of receiving a SP diagnosis asymptoted at a high level. Children with behaviour regulation difficulties in or just below the clinical range were at the greatest risk of developing SP. These findings highlight the value of large samples and the importance of evaluating for nonlinear effects to provide accurate model specification when characterising relations among a dependent variable and possible predictors. © 2016 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Laser damage metrology in biaxial nonlinear crystals using different test beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hildenbrand, Anne; Wagner, Frank R.; Akhouayri, Hassan; Natoli, Jean-Yves; Commandre, Mireille

2008-01-01

Laser damage measurements in nonlinear optical crystals, in particular in biaxial crystals, may be influenced by several effects proper to these materials or greatly enhanced in these materials. Before discussion of these effects, we address the topic of error bar determination for probability measurements. Error bars for the damage probabilities are important because nonlinear crystals are often small and expensive, thus only few sites are used for a single damage probability measurement. We present the mathematical basics and a flow diagram for the numerical calculation of error bars for probability measurements that correspond to a chosen confidence level. Effects that possibly modify the maximum intensity in a biaxial nonlinear crystal are: focusing aberration, walk-off and self-focusing. Depending on focusing conditions, propagation direction, polarization of the light and the position of the focus point in the crystal, strong aberrations may change the beam profile and drastically decrease the maximum intensity in the crystal. A correction factor for this effect is proposed, but quantitative corrections are not possible without taking into account the experimental beam profile after the focusing lens. The characteristics of walk-off and self-focusing have quickly been reviewed for the sake of completeness of this article. Finally, parasitic second harmonic generation may influence the laser damage behavior of crystals. The important point for laser damage measurements is that the amount of externally observed SHG after the crystal does not correspond to the maximum amount of second harmonic light inside the crystal.

Altering spatial priority maps via statistical learning of target selection and distractor filtering.

PubMed

Ferrante, Oscar; Patacca, Alessia; Di Caro, Valeria; Della Libera, Chiara; Santandrea, Elisa; Chelazzi, Leonardo

2018-05-01

The cognitive system has the capacity to learn and make use of environmental regularities - known as statistical learning (SL), including for the implicit guidance of attention. For instance, it is known that attentional selection is biased according to the spatial probability of targets; similarly, changes in distractor filtering can be triggered by the unequal spatial distribution of distractors. Open questions remain regarding the cognitive/neuronal mechanisms underlying SL of target selection and distractor filtering. Crucially, it is unclear whether the two processes rely on shared neuronal machinery, with unavoidable cross-talk, or they are fully independent, an issue that we directly addressed here. In a series of visual search experiments, participants had to discriminate a target stimulus, while ignoring a task-irrelevant salient distractor (when present). We systematically manipulated spatial probabilities of either one or the other stimulus, or both. We then measured performance to evaluate the direct effects of the applied contingent probability distribution (e.g., effects on target selection of the spatial imbalance in target occurrence across locations) as well as its indirect or "transfer" effects (e.g., effects of the same spatial imbalance on distractor filtering across locations). By this approach, we confirmed that SL of both target and distractor location implicitly bias attention. Most importantly, we described substantial indirect effects, with the unequal spatial probability of the target affecting filtering efficiency and, vice versa, the unequal spatial probability of the distractor affecting target selection efficiency across locations. The observed cross-talk demonstrates that SL of target selection and distractor filtering are instantiated via (at least partly) shared neuronal machinery, as further corroborated by strong correlations between direct and indirect effects at the level of individual participants. Our findings are compatible with the notion that both kinds of SL adjust the priority of specific locations within attentional priority maps of space. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic risk assessment of the effect of acidified seawater on development stages of sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis).

PubMed

Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Hsing-Chieh

2018-05-01

Growing evidence indicates that ocean acidification has a significant impact on calcifying marine organisms. However, there is a lack of exposure risk assessments for aquatic organisms under future environmentally relevant ocean acidification scenarios. The objective of this study was to investigate the probabilistic effects of acidified seawater on the life-stage response dynamics of fertilization, larvae growth, and larvae mortality of the green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis). We incorporated the regulation of primary body cavity (PBC) pH in response to seawater pH into the assessment by constructing an explicit model to assess effective life-stage response dynamics to seawater or PBC pH levels. The likelihood of exposure to ocean acidification was also evaluated by addressing the uncertainties of the risk characterization. For unsuccessful fertilization, the estimated 50% effect level of seawater acidification (EC50 SW ) was 0.55 ± 0.014 (mean ± SE) pH units. This life stage was more sensitive than growth inhibition and mortality, for which the EC50 values were 1.13 and 1.03 pH units, respectively. The estimated 50% effect levels of PBC pH (EC50 PBC ) were 0.99 ± 0.05 and 0.88 ± 0.006 pH units for growth inhibition and mortality, respectively. We also predicted the probability distributions for seawater and PBC pH levels in 2100. The level of unsuccessful fertilization had 50 and 90% probability risks of 5.07-24.51 (95% CI) and 0-6.95%, respectively. We conclude that this probabilistic risk analysis model is parsimonious enough to quantify the multiple vulnerabilities of the green sea urchin while addressing the systemic effects of ocean acidification. This study found a high potential risk of acidification affecting the fertilization of the green sea urchin, whereas there was no evidence for adverse effects on growth and mortality resulting from exposure to the predicted acidified environment.

Using probability modelling and genetic parentage assignment to test the role of local mate availability in mating system variation.

PubMed

Blyton, Michaela D J; Banks, Sam C; Peakall, Rod; Lindenmayer, David B

2012-02-01

The formal testing of mating system theories with empirical data is important for evaluating the relative importance of different processes in shaping mating systems in wild populations. Here, we present a generally applicable probability modelling framework to test the role of local mate availability in determining a population's level of genetic monogamy. We provide a significance test for detecting departures in observed mating patterns from model expectations based on mate availability alone, allowing the presence and direction of behavioural effects to be inferred. The assessment of mate availability can be flexible and in this study it was based on population density, sex ratio and spatial arrangement. This approach provides a useful tool for (1) isolating the effect of mate availability in variable mating systems and (2) in combination with genetic parentage analyses, gaining insights into the nature of mating behaviours in elusive species. To illustrate this modelling approach, we have applied it to investigate the variable mating system of the mountain brushtail possum (Trichosurus cunninghami) and compared the model expectations with the outcomes of genetic parentage analysis over an 18-year study. The observed level of monogamy was higher than predicted under the model. Thus, behavioural traits, such as mate guarding or selective mate choice, may increase the population level of monogamy. We show that combining genetic parentage data with probability modelling can facilitate an improved understanding of the complex interactions between behavioural adaptations and demographic dynamics in driving mating system variation. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments and transition probabilities of the 9 low-lying states of the NCl+ cation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yuan; Shi, Deheng; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

2018-03-01

This work calculates the potential energy curves of 9 Λ-S and 28 Ω states of the NCl+ cation. The technique employed is the complete active space self-consistent field method, which is followed by the internally contracted multireference configuration interaction approach with the Davidson correction. The Λ-S states are X2Π, 12Σ+, 14Π, 14Σ+, 14Σ-, 24Π, 14Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π, which are yielded from the first two dissociation channels of NCl+ cation. The Ω states are generated from these Λ-S states. The 14Π, 14Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π states are inverted with the spin-orbit coupling effect included. The 14Σ+, 16Σ+, and 16Π states are very weakly bound, whose well depths are only several-hundred cm- 1. One avoided crossing of PECs occurs between the 12Σ+ and 22Σ+ states. To improve the quality of potential energy curves, core-valence correlation and scalar relativistic corrections are included. The potential energies are extrapolated to the complete basis set limit. The spectroscopic parameters and vibrational levels are calculated. The transition dipole moments are computed. The Franck-Condon factors, Einstein coefficients, and radiative lifetimes of many transitions are determined. The spectroscopic approaches are proposed for observing these states according to the transition probabilities. The spin-orbit coupling effect on the spectroscopic and vibrational properties is evaluated. The spectroscopic parameters, vibrational levels, transition dipole moments, as well as transition probabilities reported in this paper could be considered to be very reliable.

ADS-B within a Multi-Aircraft Simulation for Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barhydt, Richard; Palmer, Michael T.; Chung, William W.; Loveness, Ghyrn W.

2004-01-01

Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) is an enabling technology for NASA s Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM) concept. DAG-TM has the goal of significantly increasing capacity within the National Airspace System, while maintaining or improving safety. Under DAG-TM, aircraft exchange state and intent information over ADS-B with other aircraft and ground stations. This information supports various surveillance functions including conflict detection and resolution, scheduling, and conformance monitoring. To conduct more rigorous concept feasibility studies, NASA Langley Research Center s PC-based Air Traffic Operations Simulation models a 1090 MHz ADS-B communication structure, based on industry standards for message content, range, and reception probability. The current ADS-B model reflects a mature operating environment and message interference effects are limited to Mode S transponder replies and ADS-B squitters. This model was recently evaluated in a Joint DAG-TM Air/Ground Coordination Experiment with NASA Ames Research Center. Message probability of reception vs. range was lower at higher traffic levels. The highest message collision probability occurred near the meter fix serving as the confluence for two arrival streams. Even the highest traffic level encountered in the experiment was significantly less than the industry standard "LA Basin 2020" scenario. Future studies will account for Mode A and C message interference (a major effect in several industry studies) and will include Mode A and C aircraft in the simulation, thereby increasing the total traffic level. These changes will support ongoing enhancements to separation assurance functions that focus on accommodating longer ADS-B information update intervals.

DISCOUNTING OF DELAYED AND PROBABILISTIC LOSSES OVER A WIDE RANGE OF AMOUNTS

PubMed Central

Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel; Oliveira, Luís; Chang, Seo Eun

2014-01-01

The present study examined delay and probability discounting of hypothetical monetary losses over a wide range of amounts (from $20 to $500,000) in order to determine how amount affects the parameters of the hyperboloid discounting function. In separate conditions, college students chose between immediate payments and larger, delayed payments and between certain payments and larger, probabilistic payments. The hyperboloid function accurately described both types of discounting, and amount of loss had little or no systematic effect on the degree of discounting. Importantly, the amount of loss also had little systematic effect on either the rate parameter or the exponent of the delay and probability discounting functions. The finding that the parameters of the hyperboloid function remain relatively constant across a wide range of amounts of delayed and probabilistic loss stands in contrast to the robust amount effects observed with delayed and probabilistic rewards. At the individual level, the degree to which delayed losses were discounted was uncorrelated with the degree to which probabilistic losses were discounted, and delay and probability loaded on two separate factors, similar to what is observed with delayed and probabilistic rewards. Taken together, these findings argue that although delay and probability discounting involve fundamentally different decision-making mechanisms, nevertheless the discounting of delayed and probabilistic losses share an insensitivity to amount that distinguishes it from the discounting of delayed and probabilistic gains. PMID:24745086

Screening Analysis for the Environmental Risk Evaluation System Task 2.1.1.2: Evaluating Effects of Stressors Fiscal Year 2011 Progress Report - Environmental Effects of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Copping, Andrea E.; Blake, Kara M.; Anderson, Richard M.

2011-09-01

Potential environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy development are not well understood, and yet regulatory agencies are required to make decisions in spite of substantial uncertainty about environmental impacts and their long-term consequences. An understanding of risks associated with interactions between MHK installations and aquatic receptors, including animals, habitats, and ecosystems, can help define key uncertainties and focus regulatory actions and scientific studies on interactions of most concern. As a first step in developing the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), PNNL scientists conducted a preliminary risk screening analysis on three initial MHK cases.more » During FY 2011, two additional cases were added: a tidal project in the Gulf of Maine using Ocean Renewable Power Company TidGenTM turbines and a wave project planned for the coast of Oregon using Aquamarine Oyster surge devices. Through an iterative process, the screening analysis revealed that top-tier stressors in the two FY 2011 cases were the dynamic effects of the device (e.g., strike), accidents/disasters, and effects of the static physical presence of the device (e.g., habitat alteration). Receptor interactions with these stressors at the highest tiers of risk were dominated by threatened and endangered animals. Risk to the physical environment from changes in flow regime also ranked high. Peer review of this process and results will be conducted in early FY 2012. The ERES screening analysis provides an analysis of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations, probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors. “Risk” has two components: (1) The likelihood, or “probability”, of the occurrence of a given interaction or event, and (2) the potential “consequence” if that interaction or event were to occur. During FY 2011, the ERES screening analysis focused primarily on the second component of risk, “consequence”, with focused probability analysis for interactions where data was sufficient for probability modeling. Consequence analysis provides an assessment of vulnerability of environmental receptors to stressors associated with MHK installations. Probability analysis is needed to determine specific risk levels to receptors and requires significant data inputs to drive risk models. During FY 2011, two stressor-receptor interactions were examined for the probability of occurrence. The two interactions (spill probability due to an encounter between a surface vessel and an MHK device; and toxicity from anti-biofouling paints on MHK devices) were seen to present relatively low risks to marine and freshwater receptors of greatest concern in siting and permitting MHK devices. A third probability analysis was scoped and initial steps taken to understand the risk of encounter between marine animals and rotating turbine blades. This analysis will be completed in FY 2012.« less

Propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to incorporate severity probabilities in the highway safety manual crash prediction algorithm.

PubMed

Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Donnell, Eric T

2014-10-01

Accurate estimation of the expected number of crashes at different severity levels for entities with and without countermeasures plays a vital role in selecting countermeasures in the framework of the safety management process. The current practice is to use the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms, which combine safety performance functions and crash modification factors, to estimate the effects of safety countermeasures on different highway and street facility types. Many of these crash prediction algorithms are based solely on crash frequency, or assume that severity outcomes are unchanged when planning for, or implementing, safety countermeasures. Failing to account for the uncertainty associated with crash severity outcomes, and assuming crash severity distributions remain unchanged in safety performance evaluations, limits the utility of the Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms in assessing the effect of safety countermeasures on crash severity. This study demonstrates the application of a propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to estimate the probability distribution for the occurrence of different crash severity levels by accounting for the uncertainties associated with them. The probability of fatal and severe injury crash occurrence at lighted and unlighted intersections is estimated in this paper using data from Minnesota. The results show that the expected probability of occurrence of fatal and severe injury crashes at a lighted intersection was 1 in 35 crashes and the estimated risk ratio indicates that the respective probabilities at an unlighted intersection was 1.14 times higher compared to lighted intersections. The results from the potential outcomes-propensity scores framework are compared to results obtained from traditional binary logit models, without application of propensity scores matching. Traditional binary logit analysis suggests that the probability of occurrence of severe injury crashes is higher at lighted intersections compared to unlighted intersections, which contradicts the findings obtained from the propensity scores-potential outcomes framework. This finding underscores the importance of having comparable treated and untreated entities in traffic safety countermeasure evaluations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gap probability - Measurements and models of a pecan orchard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strahler, Alan H.; Li, Xiaowen; Moody, Aaron; Liu, YI

1992-01-01

Measurements and models are compared for gap probability in a pecan orchard. Measurements are based on panoramic photographs of 50* by 135 view angle made under the canopy looking upwards at regular positions along transects between orchard trees. The gap probability model is driven by geometric parameters at two levels-crown and leaf. Crown level parameters include the shape of the crown envelope and spacing of crowns; leaf level parameters include leaf size and shape, leaf area index, and leaf angle, all as functions of canopy position.

Projecting Future Sea Level Rise for Water Resources Planning in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J.; Kao, K.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the major concerns for the management of California's water resources. Higher water levels and salinity intrusion into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta could affect water supplies, water quality, levee stability, and aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna species and their habitat. Over the 20th century, sea levels near San Francisco Bay increased by over 0.6ft. Some tidal gauge and satellite data indicate that rates of sea level rise are accelerating. Sea levels are expected to continue to rise due to increasing air temperatures causing thermal expansion of the ocean and melting of land-based ice such as ice on Greenland and in southeastern Alaska. For water planners, two related questions are raised on the uncertainty of future sea levels. First, what is the expected sea level at a specific point in time in the future, e.g., what is the expected sea level in 2050? Second, what is the expected point of time in the future when sea levels will exceed a certain height, e.g., what is the expected range of time when the sea level rises by one foot? To address these two types of questions, two factors are considered: (1) long term sea level rise trend, and (2) local extreme sea level fluctuations. A two-step approach will be used to develop sea level rise projection guidelines for decision making that takes both of these factors into account. The first step is developing global sea level rise probability distributions for the long term trends. The second step will extend the approach to take into account the effects of local astronomical tides, changes in atmospheric pressure, wind stress, floods, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. In this paper, the development of the first step approach is presented. To project the long term sea level rise trend, one option is to extend the current rate of sea level rise into the future. However, since recent data indicate rates of sea level rise are accelerating, methods for estimating sea level rise that account for this acceleration are needed. One such method is an empirical relationship between air temperatures and global sea levels. The air temperature-sea level rise relationship was applied to the 12 climate change projections selected by the California Climate Action Team to estimate future sea levels. The 95% confidence level developed from the historical data was extrapolated to estimate the uncertainties in the future projections. To create sea level rise trend probability distributions, a lognormal probability distribution and a generalized extreme value probability distribution are used. Parameter estimations for these distributions are subjective and inevitably involve uncertainties, which will be improved as more research is conducted in this area.

Peer Effects in Academic Cheating

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carrell, Scott E.; Malmstrom, Frederick V.; West, James E.

2008-01-01

Using self-reported academic cheating from the classes of 1959 through 2002 at the three major United States military service academies (Air Force, Army, and Navy), we measure how peer cheating influences individual cheating behavior. We find higher levels of peer cheating result in a substantially increased probability that an individual will…

Mental Representation of Circuit Diagrams.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-10-15

transformer serves to change the voltage of an AC supply, that a particular combination of transitors acts as a flip-flop, and so forth. Fundamentally, this... statistically signi ’P,. differences between skill levels, the size of the effect as a pro., an of variability would probably not be very great. Thus

Social Background and School Continuation Decisions. Discussion Papers No. 462.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mare, Robert D.

In this paper, logistic response models of the effects of parental socioeconomic characteristics and family structure on the probability of making selected school transitions for white American males are estimated by maximum likelihood. Transition levels examined include: (l) completion of elementary school; (2) attendance at high school; (3)…

Radiofrequency ablation versus nephron-sparing surgery for small unilateral renal cell carcinoma: cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Pandharipande, Pari V; Gervais, Debra A; Mueller, Peter R; Hur, Chin; Gazelle, G Scott

2008-07-01

To evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of percutaneous radiofrequency (RF) ablation versus nephron-sparing surgery (NSS) in patients with small (

Company-level, semi-quantitative assessment of occupational styrene exposure when individual data are not available.

PubMed

Kolstad, Henrik A; Sønderskov, Jette; Burstyn, Igor

2005-03-01

In epidemiological research, self-reported information about determinants and levels of occupational exposures is difficult to obtain, especially if the disease under study has a high mortality rate or follow-up has exceeded several years. In this paper, we present a semi-quantitative exposure assessment strategy for nested case-control studies of styrene exposure among workers of the Danish reinforced plastics industry when no information on job title, task or other indicators of individual exposure were readily available from cases and controls. The strategy takes advantage of the variability in styrene exposure level and styrene exposure probability across companies. The study comprised 1522 cases of selected malignancies and neurodegenerative diseases and controls employed in 230 reinforced plastics companies and other related industries. Between 1960 and 1996, 3057 measurements of styrene exposure level obtained from 191 companies, were identified. Mixed effects models were used to estimate expected styrene exposure levels by production characteristics for all companies. Styrene exposure probability within each company was estimated for all but three cases and controls from the fraction of laminators, which was reported by a sample of 945 living colleagues of the cases and controls and by employers and dealers of plastic raw materials. The estimates were validated from a subset of 427 living cases and controls that reported their own work as laminators in the industry. We computed styrene exposure scores that integrated estimated styrene exposure level and styrene exposure probability. Product (boats), process (hand and spray lamination) and calendar year period were the major determinants of styrene exposure level. Within-company styrene exposure variability increased by calendar year and was accounted for when computing the styrene exposure scores. Exposure probability estimates based on colleagues' reports showed the highest predictive values in the validation test, which also indicated that up to 67% of the workers were correctly classified into a styrene-exposed job. Styrene exposure scores declined about 10-fold from the 1960s-1990s. This exposure assessment approach may be justified in other industries, and especially in industries dominated by small companies with simple exposure conditions.

Geostatistical applications in environmental remediation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stewart, R.N.; Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F.

1995-02-01

Geostatistical analysis refers to a collection of statistical methods for addressing data that vary in space. By incorporating spatial information into the analysis, geostatistics has advantages over traditional statistical analysis for problems with a spatial context. Geostatistics has a history of success in earth science applications, and its popularity is increasing in other areas, including environmental remediation. Due to recent advances in computer technology, geostatistical algorithms can be executed at a speed comparable to many standard statistical software packages. When used responsibly, geostatistics is a systematic and defensible tool can be used in various decision frameworks, such as the Datamore » Quality Objectives (DQO) process. At every point in the site, geostatistics can estimate both the concentration level and the probability or risk of exceeding a given value. Using these probability maps can assist in identifying clean-up zones. Given any decision threshold and an acceptable level of risk, the probability maps identify those areas that are estimated to be above or below the acceptable risk. Those areas that are above the threshold are of the most concern with regard to remediation. In addition to estimating clean-up zones, geostatistics can assist in designing cost-effective secondary sampling schemes. Those areas of the probability map with high levels of estimated uncertainty are areas where more secondary sampling should occur. In addition, geostatistics has the ability to incorporate soft data directly into the analysis. These data include historical records, a highly correlated secondary contaminant, or expert judgment. The role of geostatistics in environmental remediation is a tool that in conjunction with other methods can provide a common forum for building consensus.« less

Projected status of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in the twenty-first century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jay, Chadwick V.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Douglas, David C.

2011-01-01

Extensive and rapid losses of sea ice in the Arctic have raised conservation concerns for the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens), a large pinniped inhabiting arctic and subarctic continental shelf waters of the Chukchi and Bering seas. We developed a Bayesian network model to integrate potential effects of changing environmental conditions and anthropogenic stressors on the future status of the Pacific walrus population at four periods through the twenty-first century. The model framework allowed for inclusion of various sources and levels of knowledge, and representation of structural and parameter uncertainties. Walrus outcome probabilities through the century reflected a clear trend of worsening conditions for the subspecies. From the current observation period to the end of century, the greatest change in walrus outcome probabilities was a progressive decrease in the outcome state of robust and a concomitant increase in the outcome state of vulnerable. The probabilities of rare and extirpated states each progressively increased but remained <10% through the end of the century. The summed probabilities of vulnerable, rare, and extirpated (P(v,r,e)) increased from a current level of 10% in 2004 to 22% by 2050 and 40% by 2095. The degree of uncertainty in walrus outcomes increased monotonically over future periods. In the model, sea ice habitat (particularly for summer/fall) and harvest levels had the greatest influence on future population outcomes. Other potential stressors had much smaller influences on walrus outcomes, mostly because of uncertainty in their future states and our current poor understanding of their mechanistic influence on walrus abundance.

How is mortality affected by money, marriage, and stress?

PubMed

Gardner, Jonathan; Oswald, Andrew

2004-11-01

It is believed that the length of a person's life depends on a mixture of economic and social factors. Yet the relative importance of these is still debated. We provide recent British evidence that marriage has a strong positive effect on longevity. Economics matters less. After controlling for health at the start of the 1990s, we cannot find reliable evidence that income affects the probability of death in the subsequent decade. Although marriage keeps people alive, it does not appear to work through a reduction of stress levels. Greater levels of psychological distress (as measured by General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) stress scores) cannot explain why unmarried people die younger. For women, however, we do find that mental strain itself is dangerous. High GHQ stress scores help to predict the probability of an early death.

Vitamin D deficiency in multiple sclerosis: Should testing and treatment be based on racial background?

PubMed

Avasarala, Jagannadha; Zachariah, Phenu

2015-11-15

Maintaining adequate levels of vitamin D may have a protective effect and lower the risk of multiple sclerosis (MS). For patients with MS, maintaining an adequate level of vitamin D level is probably associated with lessening of the frequency and severity of their symptoms. However, what remains unclear is whether if this is true across all racial/ethnic backgrounds. In African-Americans (AAs) this effect is not only absent but curiously enough, low levels of vitamin D do not matter since the bioavailability of this molecule in AA subjects is normal. It is this paradox that led to this brief report and we suggest more research and database construction based on race/ethnicity be done, as a first step to understand the biological mechanisms that confer or negate the effect of vitamin D levels in MS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of lactulose and silymarin on liver enzymes in cirrhotic rats.

PubMed

Ghobadi Pour, Mozhgan; Mirazi, Naser; Alaei, Hojjatollah; Moradkhani, Shirin; Rajaei, Ziba; Monsef Esfahani, Alireza

2017-05-01

Silymarin, a mixture of antihepatotoxic flavonolignans used in the treatment of liver diseases, and lactulose, a nonabsorbable synthetic disaccharide, were investigated to analyze their probable synergic and healing effects in a hepatic cirrhotic rat model. Liver damage was induced by the administration and subsequent withdrawal of thioacetamide. The significant decrease in liver enzymes and malondialdehyde levels confirmed the curative effects of silymarin and lactulose. In the silymarin + lactulose group, liver enzyme and malondialdehyde levels were significantly reduced compared with those in the thioacetamide group. All treatments led to liver regeneration and triggered enhanced regeneration. Silymarin and lactulose alone or in combination have potent curative effects and reduce thioacetamide-induced liver damage.

Elevated serum homocysteine level is not associated with serum C-reactive protein in patients with probable Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Lepara, Orhan; Alajbegovic, Azra; Zaciragic, Asija; Nakas-Icindic, Emina; Valjevac, Amina; Lepara, Dzenana; Hadzovic-Dzuvo, Almira; Fajkic, Almir; Kulo, Aida; Sofic, Emin

2009-12-01

Elevated plasma homocysteine (Hcy) levels have been associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and cognitive impairment. Studies have shown that Hcy may have direct and indirect neurotoxicity effects. The aim of the study was to investigate serum Hcy concentration in patients with probable AD with age-matched controls and to determine whether there was an association between serum Hcy and C-reactive protein concentration in patients with probable AD. We also aimed to determine whether there was an association between serum tHcy concentration and cognitive impairment in patients with probable AD. Serum concentration of total Hcy was determined by the fluorescence polarization immunoassay on the AxSYM system, and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration was determined by means of particle-enhanced immunonephelometry with the use of BN II analyzer. Cognitive impairment was tested by the MMSE score. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated for each subject included in the study. Age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and BMI did not differ significantly between the two groups. Mean serum tHcy concentration in the control group of subjects was 12.60 mumol/L, while in patients with probable AD the mean serum tHcy concentration was significantly higher than 16.15 mumol/L (p < 0.01). A significant negative association between serum tHcy concentration and cognitive impairment tested by the MMSE score in patients with probable AD was determined (r = -0.61634; p < 0.001). Positive, although not significant correlation between CRP and serum tHcy concentrations in patients with AD, was observed. Increased tHcy concentration in patients with probable AD, and the established negative correlation between serum tHcy concentration and cognitive damage tested by MMSE score in the same group of patients, suggests the possible independent role of Hcy in the pathogenesis of AD and cognitive impairment associated with this disease.

Comparison of Annoyance from Railway Noise and Railway Vibration

PubMed Central

Gidlöf-Gunnarsson, Anita; Gustavsson, Sara

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to compare vibration exposure to noise exposure from railway traffic in terms of equal annoyance, i.e., to determine when a certain noise level is equally annoying as a corresponding vibration velocity. Based on questionnaire data from the Train Vibration and Noise Effects (TVANE) research project from residential areas exposed to railway noise and vibration, the dose response relationship for annoyance was estimated. By comparing the relationships between exposure and annoyance for areas both with and without significant vibration exposure, the noise levels and vibration velocities that had an equal probability of causing annoyance was determined using logistic regression. The comparison gives a continuous mapping between vibration velocity in the ground and a corresponding noise level at the facade that are equally annoying. For equivalent noise level at the facade compared to maximum weighted vibration velocity in the ground the probability of annoyance is approximately 20% for 59 dB or 0.48 mm/s, and about 40% for 63 dB or 0.98 mm/s. PMID:28753921

Impact of Network Activity on the Spread of Infectious Diseases through the German Pig Trade Network.

PubMed

Lebl, Karin; Lentz, Hartmut H K; Pinior, Beate; Selhorst, Thomas

2016-01-01

The trade of livestock is an important and growing economic sector, but it is also a major factor in the spread of diseases. The spreading of diseases in a trade network is likely to be influenced by how often existing trade connections are active. The activity α is defined as the mean frequency of occurrences of existing trade links, thus 0 < α ≤ 1. The observed German pig trade network had an activity of α = 0.11, thus each existing trade connection between two farms was, on average, active at about 10% of the time during the observation period 2008-2009. The aim of this study is to analyze how changes in the activity level of the German pig trade network influence the probability of disease outbreaks, size, and duration of epidemics for different disease transmission probabilities. Thus, we want to investigate the question, whether it makes a difference for a hypothetical spread of an animal disease to transport many animals at the same time or few animals at many times. A SIR model was used to simulate the spread of a disease within the German pig trade network. Our results show that for transmission probabilities <1, the outbreak probability increases in the case of a decreased frequency of animal transports, peaking range of α from 0.05 to 0.1. However, for the final outbreak size, we find that a threshold exists such that finite outbreaks occur only above a critical value of α, which is ~0.1, and therefore in proximity of the observed activity level. Thus, although the outbreak probability increased when decreasing α, these outbreaks affect only a small number of farms. The duration of the epidemic peaks at an activity level in the range of α = 0.2-0.3. Additionally, the results of our simulations show that even small changes in the activity level of the German pig trade network would have dramatic effects on outbreak probability, outbreak size, and epidemic duration. Thus, we can conclude and recommend that the network activity is an important aspect, which should be taken into account when modeling the spread of diseases within trade networks.

Anti-amyloid precursor protein antibodies inhibit amyloid-β production by steric hindrance

PubMed Central

Thomas, Rhian S.; Liddell, J. Eryl; Kidd, Emma J.

2015-01-01

Summary Cleavage of amyloid precursor protein (APP) by β- and γ-secretases results in the production of amyloid-β (Aβ) in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). We raised two monoclonal antibodies, 2B3 and 2B12, that recognise the β-secretase cleavage site on APP but not Aβ. We hypothesised that these antibodies would reduce Aβ levels via steric hindrance of β-secretase. Both antibodies decreased extracellular Aβ levels from astrocytoma cells, but 2B3 was more potent than 2B12. Levels of soluble sAPPα from the non-amyloidogenic α-secretase pathway and intracellular APP were not affected by either antibody nor were there any effects on cell viability. 2B3 exhibited a higher affinity for APP than 2B12 and its epitope appeared to span the cleavage site while 2B12 bound slightly upstream. Both of these factors probably contribute to its greater effect on Aβ levels. After 60 minutes incubation at pH 4.0, most 2B3 and 2B12 remained bound to their antigen, suggesting that the antibodies will remain bound to APP in the acidic endosomes where β-secretase cleavage probably occurs. Only 2B3 and 2B12, but not control antibodies, inhibited the cleavage of sAPPα by β-secretase in a cell-free assay where effects of antibody internalisation and intracellular degradation were excluded. 2B3 virtually abolished this cleavage. In addition, levels of C-terminal APP fragments, βCTF, generated following β-secretase cleavage, were significantly reduced in cells after incubation with 2B3. These results strongly suggest that anti-cleavage site antibodies can generically reduce Aβ levels via inhibition of β-secretase by steric hindrance and may provide a novel alternative therapy for AD. PMID:21122073

A new strategy to analyze possible association structures between dynamic nocturnal hormone activities and sleep alterations in humans.

PubMed

Kalus, Stefanie; Kneib, Thomas; Steiger, Axel; Holsboer, Florian; Yassouridis, Alexander

2009-04-01

The human sleep process shows dynamic alterations during the night. Methods are needed to examine whether and to what extent such alterations are affected by internal, possibly time-dependent, factors, such as endocrine activity. In an observational study, we examined simultaneously sleep EEG and nocturnal levels of renin, growth hormone (GH), and cortisol (between 2300 and 0700) in 47 healthy volunteers comprising 24 women (41.67 +/- 2.93 yr of age) and 23 men (37.26 +/- 2.85 yr of age). Hormone concentrations were measured every 20 min. Conventional sleep stage scoring at 30-s intervals was applied. Semiparametric multinomial logit models are used to study and quantify possible time-dependent hormone effects on sleep stage transition courses. Results show that increased cortisol levels decrease the probability of transition from rapid-eye-movement (REM) sleep to wakefulness (WAKE) and increase the probability of transition from REM to non-REM (NREM) sleep, irrespective of the time in the night. Via the model selection criterion Akaike's information criterion, it was found that all considered hormone effects on transition probabilities with the initial state WAKE change with time. Similarly, transition from slow-wave sleep (SWS) to light sleep (LS) is affected by a "hormone-time" interaction for cortisol and renin, but not GH. For example, there is a considerable increase in the probability of SWS-LS transition toward the end of the night, when cortisol concentrations are very high. In summary, alterations in human sleep possess dynamic forms and are partially influenced by the endocrine activity of certain hormones. Statistical methods, such as semiparametric multinomial and time-dependent logit regression, can offer ambitious ways to investigate and estimate the association intensities between the nonstationary sleep changes and the time-dependent endocrine activities.

The Effect of Religious Belief on the Mental Health Status and Suicide Probability of Women Exposed to Violence.

PubMed

Güngörmüş, Zeynep; Tanrıverdi, Derya; Gündoğan, Tuğba

2015-10-01

It is known that violence against women is an important health problem both in the world and in Turkey (World Health Organization 2005; General Directorate on the Status of Women 2008). Religion is an important factor in preventing suicide and mental disorders by increasing one's ability to cope with events, channeling his/her perspective on life and the future toward a more positive path satisfying people about topics such as the need to be safe, the need for meaning and the reason for creation (Altuntop 2005). Hence, the objective of our study was to determine the effects of religious belief on the mental health status and suicide probabilities of women exposed to violence in Turkey. The study used a descriptive design. The study sample consisted of 135 women who have suffered violence who were consecutively admitted to the Department of Emergency of a State Hospital due to exposed to violence. They entered the study based on their acceptance to the questionnaire. The belief levels of women are based on their own statements and they are all Muslims. The data were collected using a questionnaire form, the Suicide Probability Scale and Brief Symptom Inventory. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 18.0. Statistical analyses were used percentage calculation, chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis test. In conclusion, a negative relationship was determined between the religious belief levels of women exposed to violence in Turkey and their moods and suicide probabilities. Hence, nurses who can stay alone with women for long periods of time can provide advancement in the determination and prevention of suicides decreasing depression via specific methods and overcoming hopelessness.

Impact of stochasticity in immigration and reintroduction on colonizing and extirpating populations.

PubMed

Rajakaruna, Harshana; Potapov, Alexei; Lewis, Mark

2013-05-01

A thorough quantitative understanding of populations at the edge of extinction is needed to manage both invasive and extirpating populations. Immigration can govern the population dynamics when the population levels are low. It increases the probability of a population establishing (or reestablishing) before going extinct (EBE). However, the rate of immigration can be highly fluctuating. Here, we investigate how the stochasticity in immigration impacts the EBE probability for small populations in variable environments. We use a population model with an Allee effect described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) and employ the Fokker-Planck diffusion approximation to quantify the EBE probability. We find that, the effect of the stochasticity in immigration on the EBE probability depends on both the intrinsic growth rate (r) and the mean rate of immigration (p). In general, if r is large and positive (e.g. invasive species introduced to favorable habitats), or if p is greater than the rate of population decline due to the demographic Allee effect (e.g., effective stocking of declining populations), then the stochasticity in immigration decreases the EBE probability. If r is large and negative (e.g. endangered populations in unfavorable habitats), or if the rate of decline due to the demographic Allee effect is much greater than p (e.g., weak stocking of declining populations), then the stochasticity in immigration increases the EBE probability. However, the mean time for EBE decreases with the increasing stochasticity in immigration with both positive and negative large r. Thus, results suggest that ecological management of populations involves a tradeoff as to whether to increase or decrease the stochasticity in immigration in order to optimize the desired outcome. Moreover, the control of invasive species spread through stochastic means, for example, by stochastic monitoring and treatment of vectors such as ship-ballast water, may be suitable strategies given the environmental and demographic uncertainties at introductions. Similarly, the recovery of declining and extirpated populations through stochastic stocking, translocation, and reintroduction, may also be suitable strategies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Teaching Probabilities and Statistics to Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pange, Jenny

2003-01-01

This study considers the teaching of probabilities and statistics to a group of preschool children using traditional classroom activities and Internet games. It was clear from this study that children can show a high level of understanding of probabilities and statistics, and demonstrate high performance in probability games. The use of Internet…

First-passage and risk evaluation under stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masoliver, Jaume; Perelló, Josep

2009-07-01

We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and the hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain approximate forms of these probabilities which prove, among other interesting properties, the nonexistence of a mean-first-passage time. One significant result is the evidence of extreme deviations—which implies a high risk of default—when certain dimensionless parameter, related to the strength of the volatility fluctuations, increases. We confront the model with empirical daily data and we observe that it is able to capture a very broad domain of the hitting probability. We believe that this may provide an effective tool for risk control which can be readily applicable to real markets both for portfolio management and trading strategies.

Non-linear relationship of cell hit and transformation probabilities in a low dose of inhaled radon progenies.

PubMed

Balásházy, Imre; Farkas, Arpád; Madas, Balázs Gergely; Hofmann, Werner

2009-06-01

Cellular hit probabilities of alpha particles emitted by inhaled radon progenies in sensitive bronchial epithelial cell nuclei were simulated at low exposure levels to obtain useful data for the rejection or support of the linear-non-threshold (LNT) hypothesis. In this study, local distributions of deposited inhaled radon progenies in airway bifurcation models were computed at exposure conditions characteristic of homes and uranium mines. Then, maximum local deposition enhancement factors at bronchial airway bifurcations, expressed as the ratio of local to average deposition densities, were determined to characterise the inhomogeneity of deposition and to elucidate their effect on resulting hit probabilities. The results obtained suggest that in the vicinity of the carinal regions of the central airways the probability of multiple hits can be quite high, even at low average doses. Assuming a uniform distribution of activity there are practically no multiple hits and the hit probability as a function of dose exhibits a linear shape in the low dose range. The results are quite the opposite in the case of hot spots revealed by realistic deposition calculations, where practically all cells receive multiple hits and the hit probability as a function of dose is non-linear in the average dose range of 10-100 mGy.

[Socio-demographic and health factors associated with the institutionalization of dependent people].

PubMed

Ayuso Gutiérrez, Mercedes; Pozo Rubio, Raúl Del; Escribano Sotos, Francisco

2010-01-01

The analysis of the effect that different variables have in the probability that dependent people are institutionalized is a topic scantily studied in Spain. The aim of the work is to analyze as certain socio-demographic and health factors can influence probability of dependent person living in a residence. A cross-section study has been conducted from a representative sample of the dependent population in Cuenca (Spain) in February, 2009. We have obtained information for people with level II and III of dependence. A binary logit regression model has been estimated to identify those factors related to the institutionalization of dependent people. People with ages between 65-74 years old are six times more likely to be institutionalized than younger people (< 65 years old); this probability increases sixteen times for those individuals with ages equal or higher than 95 years. The probability of institutionalization of people who live in an urban area is three times the probability of people who live in a rural area. People who need pharmacological, psychotherapy or rehabilitation treatments have between two and four times more probability of being institutionalized that those who do not need those. Age, marital status, place of residence, cardiovascular and musculoskeletal diseases and four times of medical treatment are the principal variables associated with the institutionalization of dependent people.

Comparing the role of the height of men and women in the marriage market.

PubMed

Yamamura, Eiji; Tsutsui, Yoshiro

2017-08-01

This paper explores how the role of men and women's height in the marriage market has changed across generations. Using individual-level data from Japan, we compared the effect of height on marriages between men and women, and investigated how the effect of height on marriage has changed across generations. Our key findings are: (1) for men born before 1965, a 1% increase in height led to an approximately 0.56% increase in the probability of being married. Conversely, for women born before 1965, a 1% increase in height led to an approximately 0.56% decrease in the probability of being married. (2) For men born in or after 1965, a 1% increase in height led to an approximately 1.05% (0.18%) increase (decrease) in the probability of being married (divorced). However, the height effect was not present for women. Japan experienced astounding economic development after World War II, which resulted in changes in its economic and social structure. These changes may have also altered the role of height for Japanese men and women in the marriage market. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Informing disease models with temporal and spatial contact structure among GPS-collared individuals in wild populations.

PubMed

Williams, David M; Dechen Quinn, Amy C; Porter, William F

2014-01-01

Contacts between hosts are essential for transmission of many infectious agents. Understanding how contacts, and thus transmission rates, occur in space and time is critical to effectively responding to disease outbreaks in free-ranging animal populations. Contacts between animals in the wild are often difficult to observe or measure directly. Instead, one must infer contacts from metrics such as proximity in space and time. Our objective was to examine how contacts between white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) vary in space and among seasons. We used GPS movement data from 71 deer in central New York State to quantify potential direct contacts between deer and indirect overlap in space use across time and space. Daily probabilities of direct contact decreased from winter (0.05-0.14), to low levels post-parturition through summer (0.00-0.02), and increased during the rut to winter levels. The cumulative distribution for the spatial structure of direct and indirect contact probabilities around a hypothetical point of occurrence increased rapidly with distance for deer pairs separated by 1,000 m-7,000 m. Ninety-five percent of the probabilities of direct contact occurred among deer pairs within 8,500 m of one another, and 99% within 10,900 m. Probabilities of indirect contact accumulated across greater spatial extents: 95% at 11,900 m and 99% at 49,000 m. Contacts were spatially consistent across seasons, indicating that although contact rates differ seasonally, they occur proportionally across similar landscape extents. Distributions of contact probabilities across space can inform management decisions for assessing risk and allocating resources in response.

Inference for binomial probability based on dependent Bernoulli random variables with applications to meta-analysis and group level studies.

PubMed

Bakbergenuly, Ilyas; Kulinskaya, Elena; Morgenthaler, Stephan

2016-07-01

We study bias arising as a result of nonlinear transformations of random variables in random or mixed effects models and its effect on inference in group-level studies or in meta-analysis. The findings are illustrated on the example of overdispersed binomial distributions, where we demonstrate considerable biases arising from standard log-odds and arcsine transformations of the estimated probability p̂, both for single-group studies and in combining results from several groups or studies in meta-analysis. Our simulations confirm that these biases are linear in ρ, for small values of ρ, the intracluster correlation coefficient. These biases do not depend on the sample sizes or the number of studies K in a meta-analysis and result in abysmal coverage of the combined effect for large K. We also propose bias-correction for the arcsine transformation. Our simulations demonstrate that this bias-correction works well for small values of the intraclass correlation. The methods are applied to two examples of meta-analyses of prevalence. © 2016 The Authors. Biometrical Journal Published by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

Effects of alternative reinforcer and craving on the choice to smoke cigarettes in the laboratory.

PubMed

Bisaga, Adam; Padilla, Margarita; Garawi, Fatima; Sullivan, Maria A; Haney, Margaret

2007-01-01

We examined to what extent craving for cigarettes and the magnitude of an alternative monetary reinforcer were predictors of the choice to smoke in the human laboratory. Twelve non-treatment-seeking nicotine-dependent volunteers participated in a series of outpatient sessions during which they had repeated opportunities to select between three puffs of a cigarette and a variety of monetary alternatives ($0.50-3), responding under a progressive-ratio schedule. Level of cigarette craving was measured at baseline and between each choice opportunity. The probability of choosing a cigarette decreased significantly with the increase in the magnitude of the alternative reinforcer. Baseline level of craving did not significantly alter the probability of choosing a cigarette, but a craving component related to the anticipation of positive effects from smoking, assessed repeatedly between choice opportunities, was predictive of the choice to smoke. These results demonstrate that the cigarette puff self-administration procedure is sensitive to environmental manipulations and cigarette puff choice can be modified by the availability of an alternative reinforcer. This paradigm models the motivational component associated with choice to smoke and could be used to evaluate the effects of pharmacological and behavioral interventions to decrease cigarette smoking.

Comparison of storm-time changes of geomagnetic field at ground and at MAGSAT altitudes, part 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Kane, R. P.; Trivedi, N. B.

1982-01-01

The latitudinal distributions of delta H, delta X, delta Y, and delta Z were studied for quiet and disturbed periods. For quiet periods, the average patterns showed some variations common to dusk and dawn, thus indicating probable ground anomaly. However, there were significant differences too between dusk and dawn, indicating considerable diurnal variation effects. Particularly in delta Y, these effects were large and were symmetric about the dip equator. For disturbed day passes, the quiet day patterns were considered as base levels and the latter were subtracted from the former. The resulting residual latitudinal patterns were, on the average, symmetric about the geographical equator. However, individual passes showed considerable north-south asymmetries, probably indicating meanderings of the central plane of the magnetospheric ring current.

Individualized Levels System and Systematic Stimulus Pairing to Reduce Multiply Controlled Aggression of a Child With Autism Spectrum Disorder.

PubMed

Randall, Kayla R; Lambert, Joseph M; Matthews, Mary P; Houchins-Juarez, Nealetta J

2018-05-01

Research has shown that physical aggression is common in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Interventions for multiply controlled aggression may be complex and difficult to implement with fidelity. As a result, the probability of treatment efficacy for this class of behavior may suffer. We designed an individualized levels system to reduce the physical aggression of an 11-year-old female with ASD. We then employed a systematic stimulus pairing procedure to facilitate generalization. Results suggest individualized levels systems can suppress multiply controlled aggression and that systematic stimulus pairing is an effective way to transfer treatment effects from trained therapists to caregivers.

Women's property rights and gendered policies: implications for women's long-term welfare in rural Tanzania.

PubMed

Peterman, Amber

2011-01-01

This paper evaluates effects of community-level women's property and inheritance rights on women's economic outcomes using a 13 year longitudinal panel from rural Tanzania. In the preferred model specification, inverse probability weighting is applied to a woman-level fixed effects model to control for individual-level time invariant heterogeneity and attrition. Results indicate that changes in women's property and inheritance rights are significantly associated with women's employment outside the home, self-employment and earnings. Results are not limited to sub-groups of marginalised women. Findings indicate lack of gender equity in sub-Saharan Africa may inhibit economic development for women and society as a whole.

The benefits and tradeoffs for varied high-severity injury risk thresholds for advanced automatic crash notification systems.

PubMed

Bahouth, George; Graygo, Jill; Digges, Kennerly; Schulman, Carl; Baur, Peter

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study are to (1) characterize the population of crashes meeting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-recommended 20% risk of Injury Severity Score (ISS)>15 injury and (2) explore the positive and negative effects of an advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) system whose threshold for high-risk indications is 10% versus 20%. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to predict the occurrence of motor vehicle crash injuries at both the ISS>15 and Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 3+ level. Models were trained using crash characteristics recommended by the CDC Committee on Advanced Automatic Collision Notification and Triage of the Injured Patient. Each model was used to assign the probability of severe injury (defined as MAIS 3+ or ISS>15 injury) to a subset of NASS-CDS cases based on crash attributes. Subsequently, actual AIS and ISS levels were compared with the predicted probability of injury to determine the extent to which the seriously injured had corresponding probabilities exceeding the 10% and 20% risk thresholds. Models were developed using an 80% sample of NASS-CDS data from 2002 to 2012 and evaluations were performed using the remaining 20% of cases from the same period. Within the population of seriously injured (i.e., those having one or more AIS 3 or higher injuries), the number of occupants whose injury risk did not exceed the 10% and 20% thresholds were estimated to be 11,700 and 18,600, respectively, each year using the MAIS 3+ injury model. For the ISS>15 model, 8,100 and 11,000 occupants sustained ISS>15 injuries yet their injury probability did not reach the 10% and 20% probability for severe injury respectively. Conversely, model predictions suggested that, at the 10% and 20% thresholds, 207,700 and 55,400 drivers respectively would be incorrectly flagged as injured when their injuries had not reached the AIS 3 level. For the ISS>15 model, 87,300 and 41,900 drivers would be incorrectly flagged as injured when injury severity had not reached the ISS>15 injury level. This article provides important information comparing the expected positive and negative effects of an AACN system with thresholds at the 10% and 20% levels using 2 outcome metrics. Overall, results suggest that the 20% risk threshold would not provide a useful notification to improve the quality of care for a large number of seriously injured crash victims. Alternately, a lower threshold may increase the over triage rate. Based on the vehicle damage observed for crashes reaching and exceeding the 10% risk threshold, we anticipate that rescue services would have been deployed based on current Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP) practices.

Predicting stress in benthic communities of southeastern U.S. estuaries in relation to chemical contamination of sediments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hyland, J.L.; Dolah, R.F. van; Snoots, T.R.

1999-11-01

Matching data on sediment contaminants (metals, PAHs, PCBs) and macroinfaunal community structure from 231 subtidal stations in southeastern US estuaries were used to develop a framework for evaluating risks of benthic impacts from multiple-contaminant exposure. Sediment contamination was expressed as the mean ratio of individual contaminant concentrations relative to corresponding sediment quality guidelines, that is, to effects range-median (ERM) values, probable effects level (PEL) values, or an aggregate of the two. The probability of a degraded benthos was relatively low in samples with mean ERM quotients {le}0.020, PEL quotients {le}0.035, or combined ERM/PEL quotients {le}0.024. Only 5% of stations withinmore » these ranges had degraded benthic assemblages, while 95% had healthy assemblages. A higher probability of benthic impacts was observed in samples with mean ERM quotients >0.058, PEL quotients >0.096, or ERM/PEL quotients >0.077. Seventy-three to 78% of stations with values in these upper ranges had degraded benthic assemblages, while 22 to 27% had healthy assemblages. Only four stations (three with degraded, one with healthy assemblages) had mean ERM or PEL quotients >1.0, which is the beginning of the range associated with a high probability of mortality in short-term laboratory toxicity tests using amphipods.« less

Captures of Boll Weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in Relation to Trap Orientation and Distance From Brush Lines.

PubMed

Spurgeon, Dale W

2016-04-01

Eradication programs for the boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis grandis Boheman) rely on pheromone-baited traps to trigger insecticide treatments and monitor program progress. A key objective of monitoring in these programs is the timely detection of incipient weevil populations to limit or prevent re-infestation. Therefore, improvements in the effectiveness of trapping would enhance efforts to achieve and maintain eradication. Association of pheromone traps with woodlots and other prominent vegetation are reported to increase captures of weevils, but the spatial scale over which this effect occurs is unknown. The influences of trap distance (0, 10, and 20 m) and orientation (leeward or windward) to brush lines on boll weevil captures were examined during three noncropping seasons (October to February) in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Differences in numbers of captured weevils and in the probability of capture between traps at 10 or 20 m from brush, although often statistically significant, were generally small and variable. Variations in boll weevil population levels, wind directions, and wind speeds apparently contributed to this variability. In contrast, traps closely associated with brush (0 m) generally captured larger numbers of weevils, and offered a higher probability of weevil capture compared with traps away from brush. These increases in the probability of weevil capture were as high as 30%. Such increases in the ability of traps to detect low-level boll weevil populations indicate trap placement with respect to prominent vegetation is an important consideration in maximizing the effectiveness of trap-based monitoring for the boll weevil.

The Differential Effects of an Opt-Out HIV Testing Policy for Pregnant Women in Ethiopia When Accounting for Stigma: Secondary Analysis of DHS Data.

PubMed

Kaufman, Michelle R; Mooney, Alyssa; Gebretsadik, Lakew Abebe; Sudhakar, Morankar N; Rieder, Rachel; Limaye, Rupali J; Girma, Eshetu; Rimal, Rajiv N

2017-02-01

Individual factors associated with HIV testing have been studied across multiple populations; however, testing is not just an individual-level phenomenon. This secondary analysis of 2005 and 2011 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey data was conducted to determine the extent to which the 2007 institution of an opt-out policy of HIV testing during antenatal care increased testing among women, and whether effects differed by women's stigmatizing beliefs about HIV. A logit model with interaction between pre-/post-policy year and policy exposure (birth in the past year) was used to estimate the increased probability of past-year testing, which may be attributable to the policy. Results suggested the policy contributed to a nine-point increase in the probability of testing (95% CI 0.06-0.13, p < 0.0001). A three-way interaction was used to compare the effects of exposure to the policy among women holding higher and lower HIV stigmatizing beliefs. The increase in the probability of past-year testing was 16 percentage points greater among women with lower stigmatizing beliefs (95% CI 0.06-0.27, p = 0.002). Women with higher stigmatizing beliefs were less likely to report attending antenatal care (ANC), testing at their last ANC visit, or being offered a test at their last ANC visit. We encourage researchers and practitioners to explore interventions that operate at multiple levels of socio-ecological spheres of influence, addressing both stigma and structural barriers to testing, in order to achieve the greatest results in preventing HIV.

The effect of parental involvement laws on teen birth control use.

PubMed

Sabia, Joseph J; Anderson, D Mark

2016-01-01

In Volume 32, Issue 5 of this journal, Colman, Dee, and Joyce (CDJ) used data from the National Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (NYRBS) and found that parental involvement (PI) laws had no effect on the probability that minors abstain from sex or use contraception. We re-examine this question, augmenting the NYRBS with data from the State Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (SYRBS), and use a variety of identification strategies to control for state-level time-varying unmeasured heterogeneity. Consistent with CDJ, we find that PI laws have no effect on minor teen females' abstinence decisions. However, when we exploit additional state policy variation unavailable to CDJ and use non-minor teens as a within-state control group, we find evidence to suggest that PI laws are associated with an increase in the probability that sexually active minor teen females use birth control. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

PubMed

Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C; Hahn, W Andreas; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

2015-02-01

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tadalafil enhances the neuroprotective effects of ischemic postconditioning in mice, probably in a nitric oxide associated manner.

PubMed

Gulati, Puja; Singh, Nirmal

2014-05-01

This study investigates the modulatory effect of tadalafil, a selective phosphodiesterase (PDE-5) inhibitor, on the neuroprotective effects of ischemic postconditioning (iPoCo) in mice. Bilateral carotid artery occlusion (BCAO) for 12 min followed by reperfusion for 24 h was employed to produce ischemia and reperfusion induced cerebral injury. Cerebral infarct size was measured using TTC staining. Memory was assessed using the Morris water maze test. Degree of motor incoordination was evaluated using inclined beam-walking, rota-rod, and lateral push tests. Brain nitrite/nitrate, acetylcholinesterase activity, TBARS, and glutathione levels were also estimated. BCAO followed by reperfusion produced a significant increase in cerebral infarct size, brain nitrite/nitrate and TBARS levels, and acetylcholinesterase activity along with a reduction in glutathione. Marked impairment of memory and motor coordination was also noted. iPoCo consisting of 3 episodes of 10 s carotid artery occlusion and reperfusion instituted immediately after BCAO significantly decreased infarct size, memory impairment, motor incoordination, and altered biochemistry. Pretreatment with tadalafil mimicked the neuroprotective effects of iPoCo. The tadalafil-induced neuroprotective effects were significantly attenuated by l-NAME, a nonselective NOS inhibitor. We concluded that tadalafil mimics the neuroprotective effects of iPoCo, probably through a nitric oxide dependent pathway, and PDE-5 could be a target of interest with respect to the neuroprotective mechanism of iPoCo.

Knowing where is different from knowing what: Distinct response time profiles and accuracy effects for target location, orientation, and color probability.

PubMed

Jabar, Syaheed B; Filipowicz, Alex; Anderson, Britt

2017-11-01

When a location is cued, targets appearing at that location are detected more quickly. When a target feature is cued, targets bearing that feature are detected more quickly. These attentional cueing effects are only superficially similar. More detailed analyses find distinct temporal and accuracy profiles for the two different types of cues. This pattern parallels work with probability manipulations, where both feature and spatial probability are known to affect detection accuracy and reaction times. However, little has been done by way of comparing these effects. Are probability manipulations on space and features distinct? In a series of five experiments, we systematically varied spatial probability and feature probability along two dimensions (orientation or color). In addition, we decomposed response times into initiation and movement components. Targets appearing at the probable location were reported more quickly and more accurately regardless of whether the report was based on orientation or color. On the other hand, when either color probability or orientation probability was manipulated, response time and accuracy improvements were specific for that probable feature dimension. Decomposition of the response time benefits demonstrated that spatial probability only affected initiation times, whereas manipulations of feature probability affected both initiation and movement times. As detection was made more difficult, the two effects further diverged, with spatial probability disproportionally affecting initiation times and feature probability disproportionately affecting accuracy. In conclusion, all manipulations of probability, whether spatial or featural, affect detection. However, only feature probability affects perceptual precision, and precision effects are specific to the probable attribute.

Effects of acidification on metal accumulation by aquatic plants and invertebrates. 1. Constructed wetlands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Albers, P.H.; Camardese, M.B.

1993-06-01

Compared were concentrations of Al,Cd,Ca,Cu,Fe,Hg,Pb,Mg,Mn,Ni,P, and Zn in water, plants and aquatic insects of three acidified (pH [approximately] 5.0) and three nonacidified (pH [approximately] 6.5) constructed wetlands. Concentrations of Zn in water and bur-reed (Sparganium americanum) were higher in acidified wetlands than in nonacidified wetlands. Floating nonrooted plants contained mean concentrations of Fe, Mg, and Mn that were higher than recommended maximum levels for poultry feed. The mean concentrations of all metals in insects were below recommended maximum levels for poultry feed and below levels that cause toxic effects in wild birds. Smaller than expected increases of metal concentrations inmore » the water of acidified wetlands were probably due to limited mobilization of metals from the sediments and insignificant changes in sedimentation of aqueous metals. Calcium was lower in acidified than in nonacidified wetland water, but the Ca content of insects and bur-reed was not lower. Low concentrations of Ca in aquatic insects from both groups of wetlands indicated that calcium-rich crustaceans and mollusks are probably important to female waterfowl and their young during the spring, when invertebrates make up the majority of the diet. Although toxic effects from metal ingestion seem to be unlikely consequences of wetland acidification, the adverse effect of low pH on the occurrence of crustaceans and mollusks could threatened egg production and development of young.« less

A trauma network with centralized and local health care structures: Evaluating the effectiveness of the first certified Trauma Network of the German Society of Trauma Surgery

PubMed Central

Koller, Michael; Zeman, Florian; Kerschbaum, Maximilian; Hilber, Franz; Diepold, Eva; Loss, Julika; Herbst, Tanja; Nerlich, Michael

2018-01-01

Background Trauma is a global burden of disease and one of the main causes of death worldwide. Therefore, many countries around the world have implemented a wide range of different initiatives to minimize mortality rates after trauma. One of these initiatives is the bundling of treatment expertise in trauma centers and the establishment of trauma networks. Germany has a decentralized system of trauma care medical centers. Severely injured patients ought to receive adequate treatment in both level I and level II centers. This study investigated the effectiveness of a decentralized network and the question whether level I and level II centers have comparable patient outcome. Materials and methods In 2009, the first trauma network DGU® in Germany was certified in the rural area of Eastern Bavaria. All patients admitted to the 25 participating hospitals were prospectively included in this network in the framework of a study sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research between March 2012 and February 2014. 2 hospitals were level I centers (maximal care centers), 8 hospitals were level II centers, and 15 hospitals were level III centers. The criterion for study inclusion was an injury severity score (ISS) ≥ 16 for patients´ primarily admitted to a level I or a level II center. Exclusion criteria were transferal to another hospital within 48 h, an unknown revised injury severity classification II score (RISC II), or primary admittance to a level III center (n = 52). 875 patients were included in the study. Univariate analyses were used regarding the preclinical and clinical parameters, the primary endpoint mortality rate, and the secondary endpoints length of stay, organ failure, and neurological outcome (GOS). The primary endpoint was additionally evaluated by means of multivariable analysis. Results Indices for injury severity (GCS, AISHead, ISS, and NISS) as well as the predicted probability of death (RISC II) were higher in level I centers than in level II centers. No significant differences were found between the mortality rate of the unadjusted analysis [level I: 21.6% (CI: 16.5, 27.9), level II: 18.1% (CI: 14.4, 22.5), p = 0.28] and that of the adjusted analysis [level I SMR: 0.94 (CI: 0.72, 1.21), level II SMR: 1.18 (CI 0.95, 1.48) SMR: expected vs. calculated mortality rate according to RISC II]. Multivariable analysis showed a survival advantage of patients admitted to a level I center with a probability of death of 13% (RISC II). The number need to treat was 10 patients. Discussion This study showed that a rural trauma network with centralized and local structures may achieve equivalent results with regard to mortality rates to those obtained in level I and level II centers. These results were furthered by a certain preclinical centralization (24/7 air rescue) of patients. The study also showed a survival advantage of patients admitted to a level I center with a probability of death of 13%. Preclinical and initial clinical evaluation with regard to probable mortality rates should be further improved to identify patients who would benefit from admittance to a level I center. PMID:29538456

A trauma network with centralized and local health care structures: Evaluating the effectiveness of the first certified Trauma Network of the German Society of Trauma Surgery.

PubMed

Ernstberger, Antonio; Koller, Michael; Zeman, Florian; Kerschbaum, Maximilian; Hilber, Franz; Diepold, Eva; Loss, Julika; Herbst, Tanja; Nerlich, Michael

2018-01-01

Trauma is a global burden of disease and one of the main causes of death worldwide. Therefore, many countries around the world have implemented a wide range of different initiatives to minimize mortality rates after trauma. One of these initiatives is the bundling of treatment expertise in trauma centers and the establishment of trauma networks. Germany has a decentralized system of trauma care medical centers. Severely injured patients ought to receive adequate treatment in both level I and level II centers. This study investigated the effectiveness of a decentralized network and the question whether level I and level II centers have comparable patient outcome. In 2009, the first trauma network DGU® in Germany was certified in the rural area of Eastern Bavaria. All patients admitted to the 25 participating hospitals were prospectively included in this network in the framework of a study sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research between March 2012 and February 2014. 2 hospitals were level I centers (maximal care centers), 8 hospitals were level II centers, and 15 hospitals were level III centers. The criterion for study inclusion was an injury severity score (ISS) ≥ 16 for patients´ primarily admitted to a level I or a level II center. Exclusion criteria were transferal to another hospital within 48 h, an unknown revised injury severity classification II score (RISC II), or primary admittance to a level III center (n = 52). 875 patients were included in the study. Univariate analyses were used regarding the preclinical and clinical parameters, the primary endpoint mortality rate, and the secondary endpoints length of stay, organ failure, and neurological outcome (GOS). The primary endpoint was additionally evaluated by means of multivariable analysis. Indices for injury severity (GCS, AISHead, ISS, and NISS) as well as the predicted probability of death (RISC II) were higher in level I centers than in level II centers. No significant differences were found between the mortality rate of the unadjusted analysis [level I: 21.6% (CI: 16.5, 27.9), level II: 18.1% (CI: 14.4, 22.5), p = 0.28] and that of the adjusted analysis [level I SMR: 0.94 (CI: 0.72, 1.21), level II SMR: 1.18 (CI 0.95, 1.48) SMR: expected vs. calculated mortality rate according to RISC II]. Multivariable analysis showed a survival advantage of patients admitted to a level I center with a probability of death of 13% (RISC II). The number need to treat was 10 patients. This study showed that a rural trauma network with centralized and local structures may achieve equivalent results with regard to mortality rates to those obtained in level I and level II centers. These results were furthered by a certain preclinical centralization (24/7 air rescue) of patients. The study also showed a survival advantage of patients admitted to a level I center with a probability of death of 13%. Preclinical and initial clinical evaluation with regard to probable mortality rates should be further improved to identify patients who would benefit from admittance to a level I center.

A quantile-based Time at Risk: A new approach for assessing risk in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

2013-11-01

In this paper, we provide a new measure for evaluation of risk in financial markets. This measure is based on the return interval of critical events in financial markets or other investment situations. Our main goal was to devise a model like Value at Risk (VaR). As VaR, for a given financial asset, probability level and time horizon, gives a critical value such that the likelihood of loss on the asset over the time horizon exceeds this value is equal to the given probability level, our concept of Time at Risk (TaR), using a probability distribution function of return intervals, provides a critical time such that the probability that the return interval of a critical event exceeds this time equals the given probability level. As an empirical application, we applied our model to data from the Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) as a financial asset (market portfolio) and reported the results.

Assessment of accident severity in the construction industry using the Bayesian theorem.

PubMed

Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Mehdi Sepehri, Mohammad

2015-01-01

Construction is a major source of employment in many countries. In construction, workers perform a great diversity of activities, each one with a specific associated risk. The aim of this paper is to identify workers who are at risk of accidents with severe consequences and classify these workers to determine appropriate control measures. We defined 48 groups of workers and used the Bayesian theorem to estimate posterior probabilities about the severity of accidents at the level of individuals in construction sector. First, the posterior probabilities of injuries based on four variables were provided. Then the probabilities of injury for 48 groups of workers were determined. With regard to marginal frequency of injury, slight injury (0.856), fatal injury (0.086) and severe injury (0.058) had the highest probability of occurrence. It was observed that workers with <1 year's work experience (0.168) had the highest probability of injury occurrence. The first group of workers, who were extensively exposed to risk of severe and fatal accidents, involved workers ≥ 50 years old, married, with 1-5 years' work experience, who had no past accident experience. The findings provide a direction for more effective safety strategies and occupational accident prevention and emergency programmes.

Bayesian inference and assessment for rare-event bycatch in marine fisheries: a drift gillnet fishery case study.

PubMed

Martin, Summer L; Stohs, Stephen M; Moore, Jeffrey E

2015-03-01

Fisheries bycatch is a global threat to marine megafauna. Environmental laws require bycatch assessment for protected species, but this is difficult when bycatch is rare. Low bycatch rates, combined with low observer coverage, may lead to biased, imprecise estimates when using standard ratio estimators. Bayesian model-based approaches incorporate uncertainty, produce less volatile estimates, and enable probabilistic evaluation of estimates relative to management thresholds. Here, we demonstrate a pragmatic decision-making process that uses Bayesian model-based inferences to estimate the probability of exceeding management thresholds for bycatch in fisheries with < 100% observer coverage. Using the California drift gillnet fishery as a case study, we (1) model rates of rare-event bycatch and mortality using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods and 20 years of observer data; (2) predict unobserved counts of bycatch and mortality; (3) infer expected annual mortality; (4) determine probabilities of mortality exceeding regulatory thresholds; and (5) classify the fishery as having low, medium, or high bycatch impact using those probabilities. We focused on leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). Candidate models included Poisson or zero-inflated Poisson likelihood, fishing effort, and a bycatch rate that varied with area, time, or regulatory regime. Regulatory regime had the strongest effect on leatherback bycatch, with the highest levels occurring prior to a regulatory change. Area had the strongest effect on humpback bycatch. Cumulative bycatch estimates for the 20-year period were 104-242 leatherbacks (52-153 deaths) and 6-50 humpbacks (0-21 deaths). The probability of exceeding a regulatory threshold under the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (Potential Biological Removal, PBR) of 0.113 humpback deaths was 0.58, warranting a "medium bycatch impact" classification of the fishery. No PBR thresholds exist for leatherbacks, but the probability of exceeding an anticipated level of two deaths per year, stated as part of a U.S. Endangered Species Act assessment process, was 0.0007. The approach demonstrated here would allow managers to objectively and probabilistically classify fisheries with respect to bycatch impacts on species that have population-relevant mortality reference points, and declare with a stipulated level of certainty that bycatch did or did not exceed estimated upper bounds.

Using a Bayesian Network to predict shore-line change vulnerability to sea-level rise for the coasts of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert

2014-01-01

Sea-level rise is an ongoing phenomenon that is expected to continue and is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments and infrastructure during the 21st century and beyond. Consequently, there is a need to assemble relevant datasets and to develop modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate the likelihood of particular sea-level rise impacts, such as coastal erosion, and to inform coastal management decisions with this information. This report builds on previous work that compiled oceanographic and geomorphic data as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the U.S. Atlantic coast, and developed a Bayesian Network to predict shoreline-change rates based on sea-level rise plus variables that describe the hydrodynamic and geologic setting. This report extends the previous analysis to include the Gulf and Pacific coasts of the continental United States and Alaska and Hawaii, which required using methods applied to the USGS CVI dataset to extract data for these regions. The Bayesian Network converts inputs that include observations of local rates of relative sea-level change, mean wave height, mean tide range, a geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and observed shoreline-change rates to calculate the probability of the shoreline-erosion rate exceeding a threshold level of 1 meter per year for the coasts of the United States. The calculated probabilities were compared to the historical observations of shoreline change to evaluate the hindcast success rate of the most likely probability of shoreline change. Highest accuracy was determined for the coast of Hawaii (98 percent success rate) and lowest accuracy was determined for the Gulf of Mexico (34 percent success rate). The minimum success rate rose to nearly 80 percent (Atlantic and Gulf coasts) when success included shoreline-change outcomes that were adjacent to the most likely outcome. Additionally, the probabilistic approach determines the confidence in calculated outcomes as the probability of the most likely outcome. The confidence was highest along the Pacific coast and it was lowest along the Alaskan coast.

A new account of the effect of probability on task switching: ERP evidence following the manipulation of switch probability, cue informativeness and predictability

PubMed Central

Nessler, Doreen; Friedman, David; Johnson, Ray

2012-01-01

This task-switching ERP study of 16 young participants investigated whether increased RT slowing on stay trials and faster RTs on switch trials for frequent than infrequent switching are explained by an activation or preparation account. The activation account proposes that task sets are maintained at a higher baseline activation level for frequent switching, necessitating increased task-set updating, as reflected by a larger and/or longer lasting early parietal positivity. The preparation account assumes advance (pre-cue) switch preparation (i.e., task-set reconfiguration), preceding stay and switch trials for frequent switching, as reflected by pre-cue and post-cue late parietal positivities. By and large, the data support the activation account. However, we also found increased, pre-cue task-set updating on frequent stay trials and pre-cue, task-set reconfiguration prior to predictable, frequent switches. These results lead us to propose an extended activation account to explain the effects of switch probability on the executive processes underlying task-switching behavior. PMID:22820040

Effects of amphibian chytrid fungus on individual survival probability in wild boreal toads

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, D.S.; Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Bartelt, P.E.; Corn, P.S.; Hossack, B.R.; Lambert, B.A.; Mccaffery, R.; Gaughan, C.

2010-01-01

Chytridiomycosis is linked to the worldwide decline of amphibians, yet little is known about the demographic effects of the disease. We collected capture-recapture data on three populations of boreal toads (Bufo boreas [Bufo = Anaxyrus]) in the Rocky Mountains (U.S.A.). Two of the populations were infected with chytridiomycosis and one was not. We examined the effect of the presence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]; the agent of chytridiomycosis) on survival probability and population growth rate. Toads that were infected with Bd had lower average annual survival probability than uninfected individuals at sites where Bd was detected, which suggests chytridiomycosis may reduce survival by 31-42% in wild boreal toads. Toads that were negative for Bd at infected sites had survival probabilities comparable to toads at the uninfected site. Evidence that environmental covariates (particularly cold temperatures during the breeding season) influenced toad survival was weak. The number of individuals in diseased populations declined by 5-7%/year over the 6 years of the study, whereas the uninfected population had comparatively stable population growth. Our data suggest that the presence of Bd in these toad populations is not causing rapid population declines. Rather, chytridiomycosis appears to be functioning as a low-level, chronic disease whereby some infected individuals survive but the overall population effects are still negative. Our results show that some amphibian populations may be coexisting with Bd and highlight the importance of quantitative assessments of survival in diseased animal populations. Journal compilation. ?? 2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Economic and demographic effects on working women in Latin America.

PubMed

Psaharopoulos, G; Tzannatos, Z

1993-01-01

This analysis of women's work conditions in Latin America includes a description of general trends in female labor force participation in 15 Latin American countries based on census data between 1950 and 1990. Also examined are pay differentials by gender and whether gender alone or individual characteristics of women workers accounted for the sex-wage gap. More extensive treatment is available in the author's other 1992 publications. Trends indicate that marriage and children were important factors determining whether women were in the labor force or not. The probability of being in the labor force was reduced by 50% for married women, and each child reduced the probability by 5%. When marriage and children were controlled for, age had a positive effect on probability of participation. Urban female heads of household had a positive effect on women's labor force participation. The higher a woman's educational qualification, the greater the probability of being in the work force. Earnings increased with increased educational level. An increase of 1 year of schooling for women contributed to an increase in female earnings of 13.1. Investment in education for women has a higher yield for women than for men. Policies that directly or indirectly improve women's employment opportunities, particularly when families are being formed, can have wide distributional effects. Also unresolved was an explanation for why female participation increased during periods of recession and why women are rewarded more for educational effort than men. The suggestion was that public sector employment, which included many women in the labor force, is distorting results.

The effect of HMO penetration on physician retirement.

PubMed

Kletke, P R; Polsky, D; Wozniak, G D; Escarce, J J

2000-12-01

To examine the effect of HMO penetration on physician retirement. We linked together historical data from the Physician Masterfile of the American Medical Association for successive years to track changes in physicians' activity status between 1980 and 1997. We used a multivariate discrete-time survival model to examine how the probability of physician retirement was affected by the level of HMO penetration in the physician's market area, controlling for other physician and market characteristics. The study population included all active allopathic patient-care physicians in the United States who reached age 55 between the years of 1980 and 1996. The main outcome measure was physician retirements as reported on the Physician Masterfile. HMO penetration had a statistically significant positive effect on the retirement probabilities of generalists and medical/surgical specialists, but it s effect on hospital-based specialists and psychiatrists was not significant . For generalists regression-adjusted retirement probabilities were roughly 13 percent greater in high-penetration markets (HMO penetration of 45 percent ) than in low-penetration markets (HMO penetration of 5 percent ). For medical/surgical specialist s regression-adjusted retirement probabilities were roughly 17 percent greater in high-penetration markets than in low-penetration markets. Our findings suggest that many older physicians have found it preferable to retire rather than adapt their practices to an environment with a high degree of managed care penetration . Because the number of physicians entering the older age categories will increase rapidly over the next 20 years, the growth of managed care and other influences on physician retirement will play an increasingly important role in determining the size of the physician workforce.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANTIBIOTIC OPTIONS INDEX FOR ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE MONITORING.

PubMed

Manomayitthikan, Taweesuk; Borlace, Glenn N; Kessomboon, Nusaraporn

2016-11-01

Using antibiogram data to indicate the overall antibiotic resistance of a pathogen is complicated by the multiple antibiotic susceptibilities reported in the antibiogram. The objectives of this study were to develop and determine the benefits of an Antibiotic Options Index (AOI); an index that summarizes antibiotic susceptibility data for a pathogen by presenting it as the availability of antibiotic treatment options. The AOI was calculated using antibiogram data for the seven most commonly isolated pathogens from the National Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Center of Thailand between 1998 and 2014 and was classified as acceptable (AOI ≥ 0.8) or unacceptable (AOI < 0.8) based on the availability of treatment options. The AOI identified two problematic pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). For A. baumannii, the probability of having at least two viable antibiotic treatment options (AOIm2) decreased from an acceptable level (0.93) in 1998 to an unacceptable level (0.53) in 2014 and for MRSA the AOIm2 decreased from an acceptable level (0.82) in 1998 to an unacceptable level (0.47) in 2014. By including the idea that the problem with increasing antibiotic resistance is a problem with treating infections, the AOI effectively compiles susceptibility data to present it as the probability of having effective antibiotic treatment. This index is calculated from widely available antibiogram data, making it more suitable to be used to monitor antibiotic resistance at the hospital, provincial and national levels.

Short-term impact of atmospheric pollution on fecundability.

PubMed

Slama, Rémy; Bottagisi, Sébastien; Solansky, Ivo; Lepeule, Johanna; Giorgis-Allemand, Lise; Sram, Radim

2013-11-01

Epidemiologic studies have reported associations between air pollution levels and semen characteristics, which might in turn affect a couple's ability to achieve a live birth. Our aim was to characterize short-term effects of atmospheric pollutants on fecundability (the month-specific probability of pregnancy among noncontracepting couples). For a cohort of births between 1994 and 1999 in Teplice (Czech Republic), we averaged fine particulate matter (PM2.5), carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, ozone, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide levels estimated from a central measurement site over the 60-day period before the end of the first month of unprotected intercourse. We estimated changes in the probability of occurrence of a pregnancy during the first month of unprotected intercourse associated with exposure, using binomial regression and adjusting for maternal behaviors and time trends. Among the 1,916 recruited couples, 486 (25%) conceived during the first month of unprotected intercourse. Each increase of 10 µg/m in PM2.5 levels was associated with an adjusted decrease in fecundability of 22% (95% confidence interval = 6%-35%). NO2 levels were also associated with decreased fecundability. There was no evidence of adverse effects with the other pollutants considered. Biases related to pregnancy planning or temporal trends in air pollution were unlikely to explain the observed associations. In this polluted area, we highlighted short-term decreases in a couple's ability to conceive in association with PM2.5 and NO2 levels assessed in a central monitoring station.

Effects of healthcare reforms on coverage, access, and disparities: quasi-experimental analysis of evidence from Massachusetts.

PubMed

Pande, Aakanksha H; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Salomon, Joshua A

2011-07-01

The 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) has been controversial. The potential impact of national healthcare reform may be considered using a similar set of state-level reforms including exchanges and a mandate, enacted in 2006 in Massachusetts. To evaluate the effects of reforms on healthcare access, affordability, and disparities. Interrupted time series with comparison series. Longitudinal survey data from 2002 to 2009 from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System including 178,040 nonelderly adults residing in Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. Analysis was conducted from January to August 2010. Massachusetts 2006 healthcare reform, which included an individual health insurance mandate. Being uninsured, having no personal doctor, and forgoing care because of cost, evaluated in Massachusetts and four comparison states before (2002-2005) and after (2007-2009) the healthcare reform. Effects on disparities defined by race, education, income, and employment also were assessed. Living in Massachusetts in 2009 was associated with a 7.6 percentage point (95% CI=3.9, 11.3) higher probability of being insured; 4.8 percentage point (-0.9, 10.6) lower probability of forgoing care because of cost; and a 6.6 percentage point (1.9, 11.3) higher probability of having a personal doctor, compared to expected levels in the absence of reform, defined by trends in control states and adjusting for socioeconomic factors. The effects of the reform on insurance coverage attenuated from 2008 to 2009. In a socioeconomically disadvantaged group, the reforms had a greater effect in improving outcomes on the absolute but not relative scale. Healthcare reforms in Massachusetts, which included a health insurance mandate, were associated with significant increases in insurance coverage and access. The absolute effects of the reform were greater for disadvantaged populations. This is important evidence to consider as debate over national healthcare reform continues. Copyright © 2011 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An economic evaluation of home management of malaria in Uganda: an interactive Markov model.

PubMed

Lubell, Yoel; Mills, Anne J; Whitty, Christopher J M; Staedke, Sarah G

2010-08-27

Home management of malaria (HMM), promoting presumptive treatment of febrile children in the community, is advocated to improve prompt appropriate treatment of malaria in Africa. The cost-effectiveness of HMM is likely to vary widely in different settings and with the antimalarial drugs used. However, no data on the cost-effectiveness of HMM programmes are available. A Markov model was constructed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HMM as compared to conventional care for febrile illnesses in children without HMM. The model was populated with data from Uganda, but is designed to be interactive, allowing the user to adjust certain parameters, including the antimalarials distributed. The model calculates the cost per disability adjusted life year averted and presents the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared to a threshold value. Model output is stratified by level of malaria transmission and the probability that a child would receive appropriate care from a health facility, to indicate the circumstances in which HMM is likely to be cost-effective. The model output suggests that the cost-effectiveness of HMM varies with malaria transmission, the probability of appropriate care, and the drug distributed. Where transmission is high and the probability of appropriate care is limited, HMM is likely to be cost-effective from a provider perspective. Even with the most effective antimalarials, HMM remains an attractive intervention only in areas of high malaria transmission and in medium transmission areas with a lower probability of appropriate care. HMM is generally not cost-effective in low transmission areas, regardless of which antimalarial is distributed. Considering the analysis from the societal perspective decreases the attractiveness of HMM. Syndromic HMM for children with fever may be a useful strategy for higher transmission settings with limited health care and diagnosis, but is not appropriate for all settings. HMM may need to be tailored to specific settings, accounting for local malaria transmission intensity and availability of health services.

Microbial Performance of Food Safety Control and Assurance Activities in a Fresh Produce Processing Sector Measured Using a Microbial Assessment Scheme and Statistical Modeling.

PubMed

Njage, Patrick Murigu Kamau; Sawe, Chemutai Tonui; Onyango, Cecilia Moraa; Habib, I; Njagi, Edmund Njeru; Aerts, Marc; Molenberghs, Geert

2017-01-01

Current approaches such as inspections, audits, and end product testing cannot detect the distribution and dynamics of microbial contamination. Despite the implementation of current food safety management systems, foodborne outbreaks linked to fresh produce continue to be reported. A microbial assessment scheme and statistical modeling were used to systematically assess the microbial performance of core control and assurance activities in five Kenyan fresh produce processing and export companies. Generalized linear mixed models and correlated random-effects joint models for multivariate clustered data followed by empirical Bayes estimates enabled the analysis of the probability of contamination across critical sampling locations (CSLs) and factories as a random effect. Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes were not detected in the final products. However, none of the processors attained the maximum safety level for environmental samples. Escherichia coli was detected in five of the six CSLs, including the final product. Among the processing-environment samples, the hand or glove swabs of personnel revealed a higher level of predicted contamination with E. coli , and 80% of the factories were E. coli positive at this CSL. End products showed higher predicted probabilities of having the lowest level of food safety compared with raw materials. The final products were E. coli positive despite the raw materials being E. coli negative for 60% of the processors. There was a higher probability of contamination with coliforms in water at the inlet than in the final rinse water. Four (80%) of the five assessed processors had poor to unacceptable counts of Enterobacteriaceae on processing surfaces. Personnel-, equipment-, and product-related hygiene measures to improve the performance of preventive and intervention measures are recommended.

GAD vaccine reduces insulin loss in recently diagnosed type 1 diabetes: findings from a Bayesian meta-analysis.

PubMed

Beam, Craig A; MacCallum, Colleen; Herold, Kevan C; Wherrett, Diane K; Palmer, Jerry; Ludvigsson, Johnny

2017-01-01

GAD is a major target of the autoimmune response that occurs in type 1 diabetes mellitus. Randomised controlled clinical trials of a GAD + alum vaccine in human participants have so far given conflicting results. In this study, we sought to see whether a clearer answer to the question of whether GAD65 has an effect on C-peptide could be reached by combining individual-level data from the randomised controlled trials using Bayesian meta-analysis to estimate the probability of a positive biological effect (a reduction in C-peptide loss compared with placebo approximately 1 year after the GAD vaccine). We estimate that there is a 98% probability that 20 μg GAD with alum administered twice yields a positive biological effect. The effect is probably a 15-20% reduction in the loss of C-peptide at approximately 1 year after treatment. This translates to an annual expected loss of between -0.250 and -0.235 pmol/ml in treated patients compared with an expected 2 h AUC loss of -0.294 pmol/ml at 1 year for untreated newly diagnosed patients. The biological effect of this vaccination should be developed further in order to reach clinically desirable reductions in insulin loss in patients recently diagnosed with type 1 diabetes.

Mobile phone use during driving: Effects on speed and effectiveness of driver compensatory behaviour.

PubMed

Choudhary, Pushpa; Velaga, Nagendra R

2017-09-01

This study analysed and modelled the effects of conversation and texting (each with two difficulty levels) on driving performance of Indian drivers in terms of their mean speed and accident avoiding abilities; and further explored the relationship between speed reduction strategy of the drivers and their corresponding accident frequency. 100 drivers of three different age groups (young, mid-age and old-age) participated in the simulator study. Two sudden events of Indian context: unexpected crossing of pedestrians and joining of parked vehicles from road side, were simulated for estimating the accident probabilities. Generalized linear mixed models approach was used for developing linear regression models for mean speed and binary logistic regression models for accident probability. The results of the models showed that the drivers significantly compensated the increased workload by reducing their mean speed by 2.62m/s and 5.29m/s in the presence of conversation and texting tasks respectively. The logistic models for accident probabilities showed that the accident probabilities increased by 3 and 4 times respectively when the drivers were conversing or texting on a phone during driving. Further, the relationship between the speed reduction patterns and their corresponding accident frequencies showed that all the drivers compensated differently; but, among all the drivers, only few drivers, who compensated by reducing the speed by 30% or more, were able to fully offset the increased accident risk associated with the phone use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public-Interest and Level-of-Evidence Considerations in Cold Fusion Public Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grinshaw, Thomas

2008-03-01

Cold fusion (CF) protagonists and antagonists would no doubt agree that scientific processes have been challenged in the CF case. The public interest in CF turns on two questions: What are the potential benefits? What is the probability that CF is ``real''? Potential benefits have been agreed on since CF announcement in 1989. The probability of CF reality may be assessed based on level of evidence (LoE): preponderance of evidence (PoE); clear and convincing evidence (CCE); and beyond a reasonable doubt (BRD). PoE, from civil law, indicates a probability of 50% or higher. BRD, from criminal law, has a probability approaching 90%. CCE, in between, thus has a 70-75% probability. CF experimental evidence, based on: 1) initial affirmations, 2) the large number of corroborations since marginalization, and 3) particularly demonstrative experiments, reasonably indicates at least a PoE level of evidence for excess heat. A case can also be made for a CCE (but probably not for a BRD) LoE. In either the PoE or CCE scenario a clear need is demonstrated for change in policy toward CR, given its potential benefits to humanity.

Protocol adherence and the ability to achieve target haemoglobin levels in haemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Chan, Kevin; Moran, John; Hlatky, Mark; Lafayette, Richard

2009-06-01

Anemia management remains complicated in patients with endstage renal disease on hemodialysis. We wished to evaluate the effect of protocol adherence to EPO and intravenous iron dosing on achieving the desired range of hemoglobin levels. A cohort of hemodialysis patients was studied to evaluate the rate of adherence to EPO and iron dosing protocols over a 5 month period. A database was completed to evaluate all known comorbidities, demographic factors, and facility issues that might affect hemoglobin levels. A logistic regression model was employed to evaluate the effect of adherence to the anemia protocols on the probability of achieving a hemoglobin level below, within or above the targeted range of 11-12.5 g/dl. Among 2114 patients, we found that adherence to both the EPO and iron dosing protocol resulted in the greatest probability of achieving the target hemoglobin range (56 +/- 5% in anemia protocol adherent patients versus 42 +/- 7% in non adherent patients). This was predominantly due to a lowered risk of having above target hemoglobin levels rather than below. The use of the anemia protocols was associated with lower rates of hospitalization (9 +/- 0.7 visits/100 months in adherent group vs 15 +/- 2 in non adherent group) and lower utilization of both EPO and intravenous iron. Furthermore, patients in the adherent groups had less variability of their hemoglobin levels month by month, at least as judged by standard deviation. Adherence to anemia protocols, as practiced in the dialysis units included in this cohort, may improve hemodialysis patients' ability to achieve target hemoglobin levels, and by avoiding above target hemoglobin values, lower drug utilization and reduce variability of hemoglobin levels.

Cost-effectiveness of rosuvastatin for primary prevention of cardiovascular events according to Framingham Risk Score in patients with elevated C-reactive protein.

PubMed

MacDonald, Gary P

2010-08-01

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently approved rosuvastatin calcium for prevention of cardiovascular events in patients who have elevated levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) but not overt hyperlipidemia. The FDA's decision was based primarily on research reported by the JUPITER (Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention: An Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin) Study Group. The cost-effectiveness of such treatment is unknown. To compare the cost-effectiveness of treatment with rosuvastatin vs standard management, according to Framingham Risk Score (FRS), for the primary prevention of cardiovascular events in patients who have hs-CRP levels of 2.0 mg/L or higher and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels of less than 130 mg/dL. A Markov-type model was used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of rosuvastatin (20 mg daily) vs standard management for the primary prevention of cardiovascular events in patients over a 10-year period. Cost data were obtained from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the Red Book drug reference. Health utility measures were obtained from the literature. Cardiovascular event data were obtained directly from the JUPITER Study Group. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted. Treating patients with rosuvastatin to prevent cardiovascular events based on a hs-CRP level greater than 2.0 mg/L and an LDL-C level of 130 mg/dL or lower would result in estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $35,455 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in patients with an FRS greater than 10% and $90,714 per QALY in patients with an FRS less than or equal to 10%. Results of probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested that in patients with an FRS greater than 10%, the probability that rosuvastatin is considered cost-effective at $50,000 per QALY is approximately 98%. In patients with an FRS less than or equal to 10%, the probability that rosuvastatin is considered cost-effective at $50,000 per QALY is 0%. Compared with standard management, treatment with rosuvastatin is a cost-effective strategy over a 10-year period for preventing cardiovascular events in patients with FRS greater than 10%, elevated hs-CRP levels, and normal LDL-C levels.

Quantum mechanical reaction probability of triplet ketene at the multireference second-order perturbation level of theory.

PubMed

Ogihara, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Takeshi; Kato, Shigeki

2010-09-23

Triplet ketene exhibits a steplike structure in the experimentally observed dissociation rates, but its mechanism is still unknown despite many theoretical efforts in the past decades. In this paper we revisit this problem by quantum mechanically calculating the reaction probability with multireference-based electronic structure theory. Specifically, we first construct an analytical potential energy surface of triplet state by fitting it to about 6000 ab initio energies computed at the multireference second-order Mller-Plesset perturbation (MRMP2) level. We then evaluate the cumulative reaction probability by using the transition state wave packet method together with an adiabatically constrained Hamiltonian. The result shows that the imaginary barrier frequency on the triplet surface is 328i cm-1, which is close to the CCSD(T) result (321i cm-1) but is likely too large for reproducing the experimentally observed steps. Indeed, our calculated reaction probability exhibits no signature of steps, reflecting too strong tunneling effect along the reaction coordinate. Nevertheless, it is emphasized that the flatness of the potential profile in the transition-state region (which governs the degree of tunneling) depends strongly on the level of electronic structure calculation, thus leaving some possibility that the use of more accurate theories might lead to the observed steps. We also demonstrate that the triplet potential surface differs significantly between the CASSCF and MRMP2 results, particularly in the transition-state region. This fact seems to require more attention when studying the "nonadiabatic" scenario for the steps, in which the crossing seam between S0 and T1 surfaces is assumed to play a central role.

Adoption Decisions for Medical Devices in the Field of Cardiology: Results from a European Survey.

PubMed

Hatz, Maximilian H M; Schreyögg, Jonas; Torbica, Aleksandra; Boriani, Giuseppe; Blankart, Carl R B

2017-02-01

Decisions to adopt medical devices at the hospital level have consequences for health technology assessment (HTA) on system level and are therefore important to decision makers. Our aim was to investigate the characteristics of organizations and individuals that are more inclined to adopt and utilize cardiovascular devices based on a comprehensive analysis of environmental, organizational, individual, and technological factors and to identify corresponding implications for HTA. Seven random intercept hurdle models were estimated using the data obtained from 1249 surveys completed by members of the European Society of Cardiology. The major findings were that better manufacturer support increased the adoption probability of 'new' devices (i.e. in terms of CE mark approval dates), and that budget pressure increased the adoption probability of 'old' devices. Based on our findings, we suggest investigating the role of manufacturer support in more detail to identify diffusion patterns relevant to HTA on system level, to verify whether it functions as a substitute for medical evidence of new devices, and to receive new insights about its relationship with clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. © 2017 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sample Size Determination for Rasch Model Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Draxler, Clemens

2010-01-01

This paper is concerned with supplementing statistical tests for the Rasch model so that additionally to the probability of the error of the first kind (Type I probability) the probability of the error of the second kind (Type II probability) can be controlled at a predetermined level by basing the test on the appropriate number of observations.…

Probability Theory Plus Noise: Descriptive Estimation and Inferential Judgment.

PubMed

Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

2018-01-01

We describe a computational model of two central aspects of people's probabilistic reasoning: descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model assumes that people's reasoning follows standard frequentist probability theory, but it is subject to random noise. This random noise has a regressive effect in descriptive probability estimation, moving probability estimates away from normative probabilities and toward the center of the probability scale. This random noise has an anti-regressive effect in inferential judgement, however. These regressive and anti-regressive effects explain various reliable and systematic biases seen in people's descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model predicts that these contrary effects will tend to cancel out in tasks that involve both descriptive estimation and inferential judgement, leading to unbiased responses in those tasks. We test this model by applying it to one such task, described by Gallistel et al. ). Participants' median responses in this task were unbiased, agreeing with normative probability theory over the full range of responses. Our model captures the pattern of unbiased responses in this task, while simultaneously explaining systematic biases away from normatively correct probabilities seen in other tasks. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Effects of Aminoguanidine on Pre- and Post-Irradiation Regional Cerebral Blood Flow, Systemic Blood Pressure and Plasma Histamine Levels in the Primate,

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

released HA may not be the sole mediator of these effects. Because elevations in plasma HA are probably due to HA derived from degranulation of mast cells ...release of other bioactive substances from mast cells may also influence these cardiovascular effects. Surprisingly, in sham-irradiated monkeys. AG...histaminergic nificantly altered by the administration ofAG. Al- mechanisms may be misguided. Mast cells , the though the two irradiated groups were

An Empirical Model for Estimating the Probability of Electrical Short Circuits from Tin Whiskers-Part I

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Courey, Karim; Wright, Clara; Asfour, Shihab; Bayliss, Jon; Ludwig, Larry

2008-01-01

Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that has a currently unknown probability associated with it. Due to contact resistance, electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In this experiment, we study the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From this data, we can estimate the probability of an electrical short, as a function of voltage, given that a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors. In addition, three tin whiskers grown from the same Space Shuttle Orbiter card guide used in the aforementioned experiment were cross sectioned and studied using a focused ion beam (FIB).

Optimizing bulk milk dioxin monitoring based on costs and effectiveness.

PubMed

Lascano-Alcoser, V H; Velthuis, A G J; van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Hoogenboom, L A P; Oude Lansink, A G J M

2013-07-01

Dioxins are environmental pollutants, potentially present in milk products, which have negative consequences for human health and for the firms and farms involved in the dairy chain. Dioxin monitoring in feed and food has been implemented to detect their presence and estimate their levels in food chains. However, the costs and effectiveness of such programs have not been evaluated. In this study, the costs and effectiveness of bulk milk dioxin monitoring in milk trucks were estimated to optimize the sampling and pooling monitoring strategies aimed at detecting at least 1 contaminated dairy farm out of 20,000 at a target dioxin concentration level. Incidents of different proportions, in terms of the number of contaminated farms, and concentrations were simulated. A combined testing strategy, consisting of screening and confirmatory methods, was assumed as well as testing of pooled samples. Two optimization models were built using linear programming. The first model aimed to minimize monitoring costs subject to a minimum required effectiveness of finding an incident, whereas the second model aimed to maximize the effectiveness for a given monitoring budget. Our results show that a high level of effectiveness is possible, but at high costs. Given specific assumptions, monitoring with 95% effectiveness to detect an incident of 1 contaminated farm at a dioxin concentration of 2 pg of toxic equivalents/g of fat [European Commission's (EC) action level] costs €2.6 million per month. At the same level of effectiveness, a 73% cost reduction is possible when aiming to detect an incident where 2 farms are contaminated at a dioxin concentration of 3 pg of toxic equivalents/g of fat (EC maximum level). With a fixed budget of €40,000 per month, the probability of detecting an incident with a single contaminated farm at a dioxin concentration equal to the EC action level is 4.4%. This probability almost doubled (8.0%) when aiming to detect the same incident but with a dioxin concentration equal to the EC maximum level. This study shows that the effectiveness of finding an incident depends not only on the ratio at which, for testing, collected truck samples are mixed into a pooled sample (aiming at detecting certain concentration), but also the number of collected truck samples. In conclusion, the optimal cost-effective monitoring depends on the number of contaminated farms and the concentration aimed at detection. The models and study results offer quantitative support to risk managers of food industries and food safety authorities. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stratification based on reproductive state reveals contrasting patterns of age-related variation in demographic parameters in the kittiwake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Monnat, J.-Y.

2000-01-01

Heterogeneity in individual quality can be a major obstacle when interpreting age-specific variation in life-history traits. Heterogeneity is likely to lead to within-generation selection, and patterns observed at the population level may result from the combination of hidden patterns specific to subpopulations. Population-level patterns are not relevant to hypotheses concerning the evolution of age-specific reproductive strategies if they differ from patterns at the individual level. We addressed the influence of age and a variable used as a surrogate of quality (yearly reproductive state) on survival and breeding probability in the kittiwake. We found evidence of an effect of age and quality on both demographic parameters. Patterns observed in breeders are consistent with the selection hypothesis, which predicts age-related increases in survival and traits positively correlated with survival. Our results also reveal unexpected age effects specific to subgroups: the influence of age on survival and future breeding probability is not the same in nonbreeders and breeders. These patterns are observed in higher-quality breeding habitats, where the influence of extrinsic factors on breeding state is the weakest. Moreover, there is slight evidence of an influence of sex on breeding probability (not on survival), but the same overall pattern is observed in both sexes. Our results support the hypothesis that age-related variation in demographic parameters observed at the population level is partly shaped by heterogeneity among individuals. They also suggest processes specific to subpopulations. Recent theoreticaI developments lay emphasis on integration of sources of heterogeneity in optimization models to account for apparently 'sub-optimal' empirical patterns. Incorporation of sources of heterogeneity is also the key to investigation of age-related reproductive strategies in heterogeneous populations. Thwarting 'heterogeneity's ruses' has become a major challenge: for detecting and understanding natural processes, and a constructive confrontation between empirical and theoretical studies.

Significance of stress transfer in time-dependent earthquake probability calculations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.

2005-01-01

A sudden change in stress is seen to modify earthquake rates, but should it also revise earthquake probability? Data used to derive input parameters permits an array of forecasts; so how large a static stress change is require to cause a statistically significant earthquake probability change? To answer that question, effects of parameter and philosophical choices are examined through all phases of sample calculations, Drawing at random from distributions of recurrence-aperiodicity pairs identifies many that recreate long paleoseismic and historic earthquake catalogs. Probability density funtions built from the recurrence-aperiodicity pairs give the range of possible earthquake forecasts under a point process renewal model. Consequences of choices made in stress transfer calculations, such as different slip models, fault rake, dip, and friction are, tracked. For interactions among large faults, calculated peak stress changes may be localized, with most of the receiving fault area changed less than the mean. Thus, to avoid overstating probability change on segments, stress change values should be drawn from a distribution reflecting the spatial pattern rather than using the segment mean. Disparity resulting from interaction probability methodology is also examined. For a fault with a well-understood earthquake history, a minimum stress change to stressing rate ratio of 10:1 to 20:1 is required to significantly skew probabilities with >80-85% confidence. That ratio must be closer to 50:1 to exceed 90-95% confidence levels. Thus revision to earthquake probability is achievable when a perturbing event is very close to the fault in question or the tectonic stressing rate is low.

High But Not Low Probability of Gain Elicits a Positive Feeling Leading to the Framing Effect.

PubMed

Gosling, Corentin J; Moutier, Sylvain

2017-01-01

Human risky decision-making is known to be highly susceptible to profit-motivated responses elicited by the way in which options are framed. In fact, studies investigating the framing effect have shown that the choice between sure and risky options depends on how these options are presented. Interestingly, the probability of gain of the risky option has been highlighted as one of the main factors causing variations in susceptibility to the framing effect. However, while it has been shown that high probabilities of gain of the risky option systematically lead to framing bias, questions remain about the influence of low probabilities of gain. Therefore, the first aim of this paper was to clarify the respective roles of high and low probabilities of gain in the framing effect. Due to the difference between studies using a within- or between-subjects design, we conducted a first study investigating the respective roles of these designs. For both designs, we showed that trials with a high probability of gain led to the framing effect whereas those with a low probability did not. Second, as emotions are known to play a key role in the framing effect, we sought to determine whether they are responsible for such a debiasing effect of the low probability of gain. Our second study thus investigated the relationship between emotion and the framing effect depending on high and low probabilities. Our results revealed that positive emotion was related to risk-seeking in the loss frame, but only for trials with a high probability of gain. Taken together, these results support the interpretation that low probabilities of gain suppress the framing effect because they prevent the positive emotion of gain anticipation.

High But Not Low Probability of Gain Elicits a Positive Feeling Leading to the Framing Effect

PubMed Central

Gosling, Corentin J.; Moutier, Sylvain

2017-01-01

Human risky decision-making is known to be highly susceptible to profit-motivated responses elicited by the way in which options are framed. In fact, studies investigating the framing effect have shown that the choice between sure and risky options depends on how these options are presented. Interestingly, the probability of gain of the risky option has been highlighted as one of the main factors causing variations in susceptibility to the framing effect. However, while it has been shown that high probabilities of gain of the risky option systematically lead to framing bias, questions remain about the influence of low probabilities of gain. Therefore, the first aim of this paper was to clarify the respective roles of high and low probabilities of gain in the framing effect. Due to the difference between studies using a within- or between-subjects design, we conducted a first study investigating the respective roles of these designs. For both designs, we showed that trials with a high probability of gain led to the framing effect whereas those with a low probability did not. Second, as emotions are known to play a key role in the framing effect, we sought to determine whether they are responsible for such a debiasing effect of the low probability of gain. Our second study thus investigated the relationship between emotion and the framing effect depending on high and low probabilities. Our results revealed that positive emotion was related to risk-seeking in the loss frame, but only for trials with a high probability of gain. Taken together, these results support the interpretation that low probabilities of gain suppress the framing effect because they prevent the positive emotion of gain anticipation. PMID:28232808

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay

PubMed Central

Oddo, Perry C.; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies. PMID:28350884

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

PubMed

Ruckert, Kelsey L; Oddo, Perry C; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

Hidden Markov analysis of mechanosensitive ion channel gating.

PubMed

Khan, R Nazim; Martinac, Boris; Madsen, Barry W; Milne, Robin K; Yeo, Geoffrey F; Edeson, Robert O

2005-02-01

Patch clamp data from the large conductance mechanosensitive channel (MscL) in E. coli was studied with the aim of developing a strategy for statistical analysis based on hidden Markov models (HMMs) and determining the number of conductance levels of the channel, together with mean current, mean dwell time and equilibrium probability of occupancy for each level. The models incorporated state-dependent white noise and moving average adjustment for filtering, with maximum likelihood parameter estimates obtained using an EM (expectation-maximisation) based iteration. Adjustment for filtering was included as it could be expected that the electronic filter used in recording would have a major effect on obviously brief intermediate conductance level sojourns. Preliminary data analysis revealed that the brevity of intermediate level sojourns caused difficulties in assignment of data points to levels as a result of over-estimation of noise variances. When reasonable constraints were placed on these variances using the better determined noise variances for the closed and fully open levels, idealisation anomalies were eliminated. Nevertheless, simulations suggested that mean sojourn times for the intermediate levels were still considerably over-estimated, and that recording bandwidth was a major limitation; improved results were obtained with higher bandwidth data (10 kHz sampled at 25 kHz). The simplest model consistent with these data had four open conductance levels, intermediate levels being approximately 20%, 51% and 74% of fully open. The mean lifetime at the fully open level was about 1 ms; estimates for the three intermediate levels were 54-92 micros, probably still over-estimates.

Oxidation and thermal reduction of the Cu(1 0 0) surface as studied using positron annihilation induced Auger electron spectroscopy (PAES)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazleev, N. G.; Nadesalingam, M. P.; Maddox, W.; Mukherjee, S.; Rajeshwar, K.; Weiss, A. H.

2010-01-01

Changes in the surface of an oxidized Cu(1 0 0) single crystal resulting from vacuum annealing have been investigated using positron annihilation induced Auger electron spectroscopy (PAES). PAES measurements show a large increase in the intensity of the annihilation induced Cu M 2,3VV Auger peak as the sample is subjected to a series of isochronal anneals in vacuum up to annealing temperature 300 °C. The intensity then decreases monotonically as the annealing temperature is increased to ˜600 °C. Experimental probabilities of annihilation of surface-trapped positrons with Cu 3p and O 1s core-level electrons are estimated from the measured intensities of the positron annihilation induced Cu M 2,3VV and O KLL Auger transitions. Experimental PAES results are analyzed by performing calculations of positron surface states and annihilation probabilities of surface-trapped positrons with relevant core electrons taking into account the charge redistribution at the surface, surface reconstructions, and electron-positron correlations effects. The effects of oxygen adsorption on localization of positron surface state wave function and annihilation characteristics are also analyzed. Possible explanation is proposed for the observed behavior of the intensity of positron annihilation induced Cu M 2,3VV and O KLL Auger peaks and probabilities of annihilation of surface-trapped positrons with Cu 3p and O 1s core-level electrons with changes of the annealing temperature.

Perception of multi-stable dot lattices in the visual periphery: an effect of internal positional noise.

PubMed

Põder, Endel

2011-02-16

Dot lattices are very simple multi-stable images where the dots can be perceived as being grouped in different ways. The probabilities of grouping along different orientations as dependent on inter-dot distances along these orientations can be predicted by a simple quantitative model. L. Bleumers, P. De Graef, K. Verfaillie, and J. Wagemans (2008) found that for peripheral presentation, this model should be combined with random guesses on a proportion of trials. The present study shows that the probability of random responses decreases with decreasing ambiguity of lattices and is different for bi-stable and tri-stable lattices. With central presentation, similar effects can be produced by adding positional noise to the dots. The results suggest that different levels of internal positional noise might explain the differences between peripheral and central proximity grouping.

Nerolidol effects on mitochondrial and cellular energetics.

PubMed

Ferreira, Fernanda M; Palmeira, Carlos M; Oliveira, Maria M; Santos, Dario; Simões, Anabela M; Rocha, Sílvia M; Coimbra, Manuel A; Peixoto, Francisco

2012-03-01

In the present work, we evaluated the potential toxic effects of nerolidol, a sesquiterpenoid common in plants essential oils, both on mitochondrial and cellular energetics. Samples of enriched natural extracts of nerolidol (a racemic mixture of cis and trans isomers) were tested on rat liver mitochondria and a decrease in phosphorylative system was observed but not in the mitochondrial respiratory chain activity, which reflects a direct effect on F1-ATPase. Hence, respiratory control ratio was also decreased. Cellular ATP/ADP levels were significantly decreased in a concentration-dependent manner, possibly due to the direct effect of nerolidol on F(0)F(1)-ATPsynthase. Nerolidol stimulates respiratory activity probably due to an unspecific effect, since it does not show any protonophoric effect. Furthermore, we observed that mitochondrial permeability transition was delayed in the presence of nerolidol, possibly due to its antioxidant activity and because this compound decreases mitochondrial transmembrane electric potential. Our results also show that, in human hepatocellular liver carcinoma cell line (HepG2), nerolidol both induces cell death and arrests cell growth, probably related with the observed lower bioenergetic efficiency. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Empirical models of transitions between coral reef states: effects of region, protection, and environmental change.

PubMed

Lowe, Phillip K; Bruno, John F; Selig, Elizabeth R; Spencer, Matthew

2011-01-01

There has been substantial recent change in coral reef communities. To date, most analyses have focussed on static patterns or changes in single variables such as coral cover. However, little is known about how community-level changes occur at large spatial scales. Here, we develop Markov models of annual changes in coral and macroalgal cover in the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (GBR) regions. We analyzed reef surveys from the Caribbean and GBR (1996-2006). We defined a set of reef states distinguished by coral and macroalgal cover, and obtained Bayesian estimates of the annual probabilities of transitions between these states. The Caribbean and GBR had different transition probabilities, and therefore different rates of change in reef condition. This could be due to differences in species composition, management or the nature and extent of disturbances between these regions. We then estimated equilibrium probability distributions for reef states, and coral and macroalgal cover under constant environmental conditions. In both regions, the current distributions are close to equilibrium. In the Caribbean, coral cover is much lower and macroalgal cover is higher at equilibrium than in the GBR. We found no evidence for differences in transition probabilities between the first and second halves of our survey period, or between Caribbean reefs inside and outside marine protected areas. However, our power to detect such differences may have been low. We also examined the effects of altering transition probabilities on the community state equilibrium, along a continuum from unfavourable (e.g., increased sea surface temperature) to favourable (e.g., improved management) conditions. Both regions showed similar qualitative responses, but different patterns of uncertainty. In the Caribbean, uncertainty was greatest about effects of favourable changes, while in the GBR, we are most uncertain about effects of unfavourable changes. Our approach could be extended to provide risk analysis for management decisions.

Effects of pathogen-specific clinical mastitis on probability of conception in Holstein dairy cows.

PubMed

Hertl, J A; Schukken, Y H; Welcome, F L; Tauer, L W; Gröhn, Y T

2014-11-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the effects of pathogen-specific clinical mastitis (CM), occurring in different weekly intervals before or after artificial insemination (AI), on the probability of conception in Holstein cows. Clinical mastitis occurring in weekly intervals from 6 wk before until 6 wk after AI was modeled. The first 4 AI in a cow's lactation were included. The following categories of pathogens were studied: Streptococcus spp. (comprising Streptococcus dysgalactiae, Streptococcus uberis, and other Streptococcus spp.); Staphylococcus aureus; coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS); Escherichia coli; Klebsiella spp.; cases with CM signs but no bacterial growth (above the level that can be detected from our microbiological procedures) observed in the culture sample and cases with contamination (≥ 3 pathogens in the sample); and other pathogens [including Citrobacter, yeasts, Trueperella pyogenes, gram-negative bacilli (i.e., gram-negative organisms other than E. coli, Klebsiella spp., Enterobacter, and Citrobacter), Corynebacterium bovis, Corynebacterium spp., Pasteurella, Enterococcus, Pseudomonas, Mycoplasma, Prototheca, and others]. Other factors included in the model were parity (1, 2, 3, 4 and higher), season of AI (winter, spring, summer, autumn), day in lactation of first AI, farm, and other non-CM diseases (retained placenta, metritis, ketosis, displaced abomasum). Data from 90,271 AI in 39,361 lactations in 20,328 cows collected from 2003/2004 to 2011 from 5 New York State dairy farms were analyzed in a generalized linear mixed model with a Poisson distribution. The largest reductions in probability of conception were associated with CM occurring in the week before AI or in the 2 wk following AI. Escherichia coli and Klebsiella spp. had the greatest adverse effects on probability of conception. The probability of conception for a cow with any combination of characteristics may be calculated based on the parameter estimates. These findings may be helpful to farmers in assessing reproduction in their dairy cows for more effective cow management. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

OVERALL CONTROL SYSTEM FOR HIGH FLUX PILE

DOEpatents

Newson, H.W.; Durham, N.C.; Wigner, E.P.; Princeton, N.J.; Epler, E.P.

1961-05-23

A control system is given for a high fiux reactor incorporating an anti- scram control feature whereby a neutron absorbing control rod acts as a fine adjustment while a neutron absorbing shim rod, actuated upon a command received from reactor period and level signals, has substantially greater effect on the neutron level and is moved prior to scram conditions to alter the reactor activity before a scram condition is created. Thus the probability that a scram will have to be initiated is substantially decreased.

Exposure to pesticides residues from consumption of Italian blood oranges.

PubMed

Fallico, B; D'Urso, M G; Chiappara, E

2009-07-01

This paper reports the results of a 5-year study to evaluate pesticide levels, derived from orchard activities, on Italy's most common orange cultivar (Citrus sinensis, L. Osbeck, cv. Tarocco). Using a Bayesian approach, the study allowed both the qualitative (number) and quantitative distributions (amount) of pesticides to be determined with its own probability value. Multi-residue analyses of 460 samples highlighted the presence of ethyl and methyl chlorpyrifos, dicofol, etofenprox, fenazaquin, fenitrothion, imazalil, malathion and metalaxil-m. A total of 30.5% of samples contained just one pesticide, 2.16% two pesticides and 0.65% of samples had three pesticides present simultaneously. The most common residue was ethyl chlorpyrifos followed by methyl chlorpyrifos. Estimated daily intake (EDI) values for ethyl and methyl chlorpyrifos, as well as the distance from the safety level (non-observed adverse effect level, NOAEL), were calculated. The risk was differentiated (1) to take account of the period of actual citrus consumption (180 days) and (2) to discriminate the risk derived from eating oranges containing a certain level of chlorpyrifos from unspecified pesticides. The most likely EDI values for ethyl chlorpyrifos derived from Italian blood orange consumption are 0.01 and 0.006 mg/day calculated for 180 and 365 days, respectively. Considering the probability of the occurrence of ethyl chlorpyrifos, these EDI values are reduced to 2.6 x 10(-3) and 1.3 x 10(-3) mg/day, respectively. For methyl chlorpyrifos, the most likely EDI values are 0.09 and 0.04 mg/day, respectively; considering the probability of its occurrence, the EDI values decrease to 6.7 x 10(-3) and 3.4 x 10(-3) mg/day, respectively. The results confirmed that levels of pesticides in Italian Tarocco oranges derived from a known controlled chain of production are safe.

Informing Disease Models with Temporal and Spatial Contact Structure among GPS-Collared Individuals in Wild Populations

PubMed Central

Williams, David M.; Dechen Quinn, Amy C.; Porter, William F.

2014-01-01

Contacts between hosts are essential for transmission of many infectious agents. Understanding how contacts, and thus transmission rates, occur in space and time is critical to effectively responding to disease outbreaks in free-ranging animal populations. Contacts between animals in the wild are often difficult to observe or measure directly. Instead, one must infer contacts from metrics such as proximity in space and time. Our objective was to examine how contacts between white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) vary in space and among seasons. We used GPS movement data from 71 deer in central New York State to quantify potential direct contacts between deer and indirect overlap in space use across time and space. Daily probabilities of direct contact decreased from winter (0.05–0.14), to low levels post-parturition through summer (0.00–0.02), and increased during the rut to winter levels. The cumulative distribution for the spatial structure of direct and indirect contact probabilities around a hypothetical point of occurrence increased rapidly with distance for deer pairs separated by 1,000 m – 7,000 m. Ninety-five percent of the probabilities of direct contact occurred among deer pairs within 8,500 m of one another, and 99% within 10,900 m. Probabilities of indirect contact accumulated across greater spatial extents: 95% at 11,900 m and 99% at 49,000 m. Contacts were spatially consistent across seasons, indicating that although contact rates differ seasonally, they occur proportionally across similar landscape extents. Distributions of contact probabilities across space can inform management decisions for assessing risk and allocating resources in response. PMID:24409293

Study on safety level of RC beam bridges under earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jun; Lin, Junqi; Liu, Jinlong; Li, Jia

2017-08-01

This study considers uncertainties in material strengths and the modeling which have important effects on structural resistance force based on reliability theory. After analyzing the destruction mechanism of a RC bridge, structural functions and the reliability were given, then the safety level of the piers of a reinforced concrete continuous girder bridge with stochastic structural parameters against earthquake was analyzed. Using response surface method to calculate the failure probabilities of bridge piers under high-level earthquake, their seismic reliability for different damage states within the design reference period were calculated applying two-stage design, which describes seismic safety level of the built bridges to some extent.

Low-cost silicon solar array project environmental hail model for assessing risk to solar collectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzalez, C.

1977-01-01

The probability of solar arrays being struck by hailstones of various sizes as a function of geographic location and service life was assessed. The study complements parallel studies of solar array sensitivity to hail damage, the final objective being an estimate of the most cost effective level for solar array hail protection.

Defense and avoidance of ozone under global change

Treesearch

Michael Tausz; Nancy E. Grulke; Gerhard Wieser

2007-01-01

The level II approach of the critical loads concept adopted by the UNECE aims at a flux based evaluation and takes into account environmental factors governing stomatal conductance. These factors will probably be affected by global change. The flux concept predicts that a decrease in stomatal conductance would protect trees from air pollution effects by decreasing...

Creating a stage-based deterministic PVA model - the western prairie fringed orchid [Exercise 12

Treesearch

Carolyn Hull Sieg; Rudy M. King; Fred Van Dyke

2003-01-01

Contemporary efforts to conserve populations and species often employ population viability analysis (PVA), a specific application of population modeling that estimates the effects of environmental and demographic processes on population growth rates. These models can also be used to estimate probabilities that a population will fall below a certain level. This...

Effects of Participation in Formal Leadership Training in International Students Compared to Domestic Students: A National Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collier, Daniel A.; Rosch, David M.; Houston, Derek A.

2017-01-01

International student enrollment has experienced dramatic increases on U.S. campuses. Using a national dataset, the study explores and compares international and domestic students' incoming and post-training levels of motivation to lead, leadership self-efficacy, and leadership skill using inverse-probability weighting of propensity scores to…

Fine-structure calculations of energy levels, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for sulfur-like iron, Fe XI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abou El-Maaref, A., E-mail: aahmh@hotmail.com; Ahmad, Mahmoud; Allam, S.H.

Energy levels, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities for transitions among the 14 LS states belonging to configurations of sulfur-like iron, Fe XI, have been calculated. These states are represented by configuration interaction wavefunctions and have configurations 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 4}, 3s3p{sup 5}, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}3d, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4s, 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4p, and 3s{sup 2}3p{sup 3}4d, which give rise to 123 fine-structure energy levels. Extensive configuration interaction calculations using the CIV3 code have been performed. To assess the importance of relativistic effects, the intermediate coupling scheme by means of the Breit–Pauli Hamiltonian terms, such as the one-body mass correction and Darwin term,more » and spin–orbit, spin–other-orbit, and spin–spin corrections, are incorporated within the code. These incorporations adjusted the energy levels, therefore the calculated values are close to the available experimental data. Comparisons between the present calculated energy levels as well as oscillator strengths and both experimental and theoretical data have been performed. Our results show good agreement with earlier works, and they might be useful in thermonuclear fusion research and astrophysical applications. -- Highlights: •Accurate atomic data of iron ions are needed for identification of solar corona. •Extensive configuration interaction wavefunctions including 123 fine-structure levels have been calculated. •The relativistic effects by means of the Breit–Pauli Hamiltonian terms are incorporated. •This incorporation adjusts the energy levels, therefore the calculated values are close to experimental values.« less

The effect of vocal and instrumental music on cardio respiratory variables, energy expenditure and exertion levels during sub maximal treadmill exercise.

PubMed

Savitha, D; Sejil, T V; Rao, Shwetha; Roshan, C J; Roshan, C J

2013-01-01

The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of vocal and instrumental music on various physiological parameters during submaximal exercise. Each subject underwent three sessions of exercise protocol without music, with vocal music, and instrumental versions of same piece of music. The protocol consisted of 10 min treadmill exercise at 70% HR(max) and 20 min of recovery. Minute to minute heart rate and breath by breath recording of respiratory parameters, rate of energy expenditure and perceived exertion levels were measured. Music, irrespective of the presence or absence of lyrics, enabled the subjects to exercise at a significantly lower heart rate and oxygen consumption, reduced the metabolic cost and perceived exertion levels of exercise (P < 0.05). There was faster recovery of systolic and diastolic blood pressures and exertion levels during the post exercise period. Music having a relaxant effect could have probably increased the parasympathetic activation leading to these effects.

A dental public health approach based on computational mathematics: Monte Carlo simulation of childhood dental decay.

PubMed

Tennant, Marc; Kruger, Estie

2013-02-01

This study developed a Monte Carlo simulation approach to examining the prevalence and incidence of dental decay using Australian children as a test environment. Monte Carlo simulation has been used for a half a century in particle physics (and elsewhere); put simply, it is the probability for various population-level outcomes seeded randomly to drive the production of individual level data. A total of five runs of the simulation model for all 275,000 12-year-olds in Australia were completed based on 2005-2006 data. Measured on average decayed/missing/filled teeth (DMFT) and DMFT of highest 10% of sample (Sic10) the runs did not differ from each other by more than 2% and the outcome was within 5% of the reported sampled population data. The simulations rested on the population probabilities that are known to be strongly linked to dental decay, namely, socio-economic status and Indigenous heritage. Testing the simulated population found DMFT of all cases where DMFT<>0 was 2.3 (n = 128,609) and DMFT for Indigenous cases only was 1.9 (n = 13,749). In the simulation population the Sic25 was 3.3 (n = 68,750). Monte Carlo simulations were created in particle physics as a computational mathematical approach to unknown individual-level effects by resting a simulation on known population-level probabilities. In this study a Monte Carlo simulation approach to childhood dental decay was built, tested and validated. © 2013 FDI World Dental Federation.

Canopy Spectral Invariants. Part 2; Application to Classification of Forest Types from Hyperspectral Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schull, M. A.; Knyazikhin, Y.; Xu, L.; Samanta, A.; Carmona, P. L.; Lepine, L.; Jenkins, J. P.; Ganguly, S.; Myneni, R. B.

2011-01-01

Many studies have been conducted to demonstrate the ability of hyperspectral data to discriminate plant dominant species. Most of them have employed the use of empirically based techniques, which are site specific, requires some initial training based on characteristics of known leaf and/or canopy spectra and therefore may not be extendable to operational use or adapted to changing or unknown land cover. In this paper we propose a physically based approach for separation of dominant forest type using hyperspectral data. The radiative transfer theory of canopy spectral invariants underlies the approach, which facilitates parameterization of the canopy reflectance in terms of the leaf spectral scattering and two spectrally invariant and structurally varying variables - recollision and directional escape probabilities. The methodology is based on the idea of retrieving spectrally invariant parameters from hyperspectral data first, and then relating their values to structural characteristics of three-dimensional canopy structure. Theoretical and empirical analyses of ground and airborne data acquired by Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) over two sites in New England, USA, suggest that the canopy spectral invariants convey information about canopy structure at both the macro- and micro-scales. The total escape probability (one minus recollision probability) varies as a power function with the exponent related to the number of nested hierarchical levels present in the pixel. Its base is a geometrical mean of the local total escape probabilities and accounts for the cumulative effect of canopy structure over a wide range of scales. The ratio of the directional to the total escape probability becomes independent of the number of hierarchical levels and is a function of the canopy structure at the macro-scale such as tree spatial distribution, crown shape and size, within-crown foliage density and ground cover. These properties allow for the natural separation of dominant forest classes based on the location of points on the total escape probability vs the ratio log-log plane.

Medical concepts related to individual risk are better explained with "plausibility" rather than "probability".

PubMed

Grossi, Enzo

2005-09-27

The concept of risk has pervaded medical literature in the last decades and has become a familiar topic, and the concept of probability, linked to binary logic approach, is commonly applied in epidemiology and clinical medicine. The application of probability theory to groups of individuals is quite straightforward but can pose communication challenges at individual level. Few articles by the way have tried to focus the concept of "risk" at the individual subject level rather than at population level. The author has reviewed the conceptual framework which has led to the use of probability theory in the medical field in a time when the principal causes of death were represented by acute disease often of infective origin. In the present scenario, in which chronic degenerative disease dominate and there are smooth transitions between health and disease the use of fuzzy logic rather than binary logic would be more appropriate. The use of fuzzy logic in which more than two possible truth-value assignments are allowed overcomes the trap of probability theory when dealing with uncertain outcomes, thereby making the meaning of a certain prognostic statement easier to understand by the patient. At individual subject level the recourse to the term plausibility, related to fuzzy logic, would help the physician to communicate to the patient more efficiently in comparison with the term probability, related to binary logic. This would represent an evident advantage for the transfer of medical evidences to individual subjects.

Integrated schools, segregated curriculum: effects of within-school segregation on adolescent health behaviors and educational aspirations.

PubMed

Walsemann, Katrina M; Bell, Bethany A

2010-09-01

We examined the extent to which within-school segregation, as measured by unevenness in the distribution of Black and White adolescents across levels of the English curriculum (advanced placement-international baccalaureate-honors, general, remedial, or no English), was associated with smoking, drinking, and educational aspirations, which previous studies found are related to school racial/ethnic composition. We analyzed data from wave 1 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, restricting our sample to non-Hispanic Blacks (n=2731) and Whites (n=4158) who from 1994 to 1995 attended high schools that enrolled Black and White students. White female students had higher predicted probabilities of smoking or drinking than did Black female students; the largest differences were in schools with high levels of within-school segregation. Black male students had higher predicted probabilities of high educational aspirations than did White male students in schools with low levels of within-school segregation; this association was attenuated for Black males attending schools with moderate or high levels of within-school segregation. Our results provide evidence that within-school segregation may influence both students' aspirations and their behaviors.

Spillover effects of community uninsurance on working-age adults and seniors: an instrumental variables analysis.

PubMed

Gresenz, Carole Roan; Escarce, José J

2011-09-01

: Previous research suggests, but does not definitively establish, that a high level of uninsurance in a community may negatively affect access to and quality of health care for insured persons. : To assess the effect of the level of uninsurance in a community on access to and satisfaction with care-an important dimension of quality-among insured persons. : The 1996 to 2006 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component data linked to data from the Current Population Survey, Area Resource File, and the InterStudy Competitive Edge. Analyses include 86,928 insured adult respondents living in approximately 200 large metropolitan areas. : Measures of whether an individual had a usual source of care, had any delay/difficulty obtaining needed care, used office-based services, used prescription drug services, and used any medical services, and measures of satisfaction with care. : Among privately insured adults, a higher community uninsurance rate resulted in a lower probability of having a usual source of care, having an office-based visit, having any medical expenditures, and reporting being satisfied with the quality of care provided by the usual source of care. A higher community uninsurance rate also led to a higher probability of reporting difficulty obtaining needed care. Among Medicare enrollees, a higher community uninsurance rate resulted in lower reported satisfaction with care and higher probability of experiencing difficulty or delay in getting needed care. : Our results suggest substantial spillover effects of the community uninsurance rate on access to and satisfaction with health care among insured working-age adults and seniors. Consequently, new efforts to address the problem of the uninsured may bring significant benefits to persons who already have insurance.

78 FR 23954 - U.S.-EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement: Advice on the Probable Economic...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-23

... Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement: Advice on the Probable Economic Effect of Providing... on the Probable Economic Effect of Providing Duty-Free Treatment for Imports. DATES: May 16, 2013... its advice as to the probable economic effect of providing duty-free treatment for imports of products...

Chytridiomycosis and seasonal mortality of tropical stream-associated frogs 15 years after introduction of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis.

PubMed

Phillott, Andrea D; Grogan, Laura F; Cashins, Scott D; McDonald, Keith R; Berger, Lee; Skerratt, Lee F

2013-10-01

Assessing the effects of diseases on wildlife populations can be difficult in the absence of observed mortalities, but it is crucial for threat assessment and conservation. We performed an intensive capture-mark-recapture study across seasons and years to investigate the effect of chytridiomycosis on demographics in 2 populations of the threatened common mist frog (Litoria rheocola) in the lowland wet tropics of Queensland, Australia. Infection prevalence was the best predictor for apparent survival probability in adult males and varied widely with season (0-65%). Infection prevalence was highest in winter months when monthly survival probabilities were low (approximately 70%). Populations at both sites exhibited very low annual survival probabilities (12-15%) but high recruitment (71-91%), which resulted in population growth rates that fluctuated seasonally. Our results suggest that even in the absence of observed mortalities and continued declines, and despite host-pathogen co-existence for multiple host generations over almost 2 decades, chytridiomycosis continues to have substantial seasonally fluctuating population-level effects on amphibian survival, which necessitates increased recruitment for population persistence. Similarly infected populations may thus be under continued threat from chytridiomycosis which may render them vulnerable to other threatening processes, particularly those affecting recruitment success. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Statistical Value of Raw Fluorescence Signal in Luminex xMAP Based Multiplex Immunoassays

PubMed Central

Breen, Edmond J.; Tan, Woei; Khan, Alamgir

2016-01-01

Tissue samples (plasma, saliva, serum or urine) from 169 patients classified as either normal or having one of seven possible diseases are analysed across three 96-well plates for the presences of 37 analytes using cytokine inflammation multiplexed immunoassay panels. Censoring for concentration data caused problems for analysis of the low abundant analytes. Using fluorescence analysis over concentration based analysis allowed analysis of these low abundant analytes. Mixed-effects analysis on the resulting fluorescence and concentration responses reveals a combination of censoring and mapping the fluorescence responses to concentration values, through a 5PL curve, changed observed analyte concentrations. Simulation verifies this, by showing a dependence on the mean florescence response and its distribution on the observed analyte concentration levels. Differences from normality, in the fluorescence responses, can lead to differences in concentration estimates and unreliable probabilities for treatment effects. It is seen that when fluorescence responses are normally distributed, probabilities of treatment effects for fluorescence based t-tests has greater statistical power than the same probabilities from concentration based t-tests. We add evidence that the fluorescence response, unlike concentration values, doesn’t require censoring and we show with respect to differential analysis on the fluorescence responses that background correction is not required. PMID:27243383

Assessing flight safety differences between the United States regional and major airlines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharp, Broderick H.

During 2008, the U.S. domestic airline departures exceeded 28,000 flights per day. Thirty-nine or less than 0.2 of 1% of these flights resulted in operational incidents or accidents. However, even a low percentage of airline accidents and incidents continue to cause human suffering and property loss. The charge of this study was the comparison of U.S. major and regional airline safety histories. The study spans safety events from January 1982 through December 2008. In this quantitative analysis, domestic major and regional airlines were statistically tested for their flight safety differences. Four major airlines and thirty-seven regional airlines qualified for the safety study which compared the airline groups' fatal accidents, incidents, non-fatal accidents, pilot errors, and the remaining six safety event probable cause types. The six other probable cause types are mechanical failure, weather, air traffic control, maintenance, other, and unknown causes. The National Transportation Safety Board investigated each airline safety event, and assigned a probable cause to each event. A sample of 500 events was randomly selected from the 1,391 airlines' accident and incident population. The airline groups' safety event probabilities were estimated using the least squares linear regression. A probability significance level of 5% was chosen to conclude the appropriate research question hypothesis. The airline fatal accidents and incidents probability levels were 1.2% and 0.05% respectively. These two research questions did not reach the 5% significance level threshold. Therefore, the airline groups' fatal accidents and non-destructive incidents probabilities favored the airline groups' safety differences hypothesis. The linear progression estimates for the remaining three research questions were 71.5% for non-fatal accidents, 21.8% for the pilot errors, and 7.4% significance level for the six probable causes. These research questions' linear regressions are greater than the 5% level. Consequently, these three research questions favored airline groups' safety similarities hypothesis. The study indicates the U.S. domestic major airlines were safer than the regional airlines. Ideas for potential airline safety progress can examine pilot fatigue, the airline groups' hiring policies, the government's airline oversight personnel, or the comparison of individual airline's operational policies.

Cognitive processes as mediators of the relation between mindfulness and change in social anxiety symptoms following cognitive behavioral treatment

PubMed Central

Morgan, Jessica R.; Price, Matthew; Schmertz, Stefan K.; Johnson, Suzanne B.; Masuda, Akihiko; Calamaras, Martha; Anderson, Page L.

2014-01-01

The present study examined whether pretreatment mindfulness exerts an indirect effect on outcomes following cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). Cognitive processes of probability and cost bias (i.e., overestimations of the likelihood that negative social events will occur, and that these events will have negative consequences when they do occur) were explored as potential mediators of the relation between mindfulness and social anxiety symptom change. People with higher levels of mindfulness may be better able to benefit from treatments that reduce biases because mindfulness may aid in regulation of attention. Sixty-seven individuals with a primary diagnosis of social phobia identifying public speaking as their greatest fear received eight sessions of one of two types of exposure-based CBT delivered according to treatment manuals. Participants completed self-report measures of mindfulness, probability bias, cost bias, and social anxiety symptoms. Mediation hypotheses were assessed by a bootstrapped regression using treatment outcome data. Pretreatment mindfulness was not related to change in social anxiety symptoms from pre- to posttreatment. However, mindfulness had an indirect effect on treatment outcome via its association with probability bias, but not cost bias, at midtreatment. These findings were consistent across three metrics of social anxiety symptoms. Mindfulness may play a role in response to CBT among individuals with social phobia through its relation with probability bias – even when the treatment does not target mindfulness. PMID:24147809

Race, unemployment rate, and chronic mental illness: a 15-year trend analysis.

PubMed

Lo, Celia C; Cheng, Tyrone C

2014-07-01

Before abating, the recession of the first decade of this century doubled the US unemployment rate. High unemployment is conceptualized as a stressor having serious effects on individuals' mental health. Data from surveys administered repeatedly over 15 years (1997-2011) described changes over time in the prevalence of chronic mental illness among US adults. The data allowed us to pinpoint changes characterizing the White majority--but not Black, Hispanic, or Asian minorities--and to ask whether such changes were attributable to economic conditions (measured via national unemployment rates). We combined 1.5 decades' worth of National Health Interview Survey data in one secondary analysis. We took social structural and demographic factors into account and let adjusted probability of chronic mental illness indicate prevalence of chronic mental illness We observed, as a general trend, that chronic mental illness probability increased as the unemployment rate rose. A greater increase in probability was observed for Blacks than Whites, notably during 2007-2011, the heart of the recession Our results confirmed that structural risk posed by the recent recession and by vulnerability to the recession's effects was differentially linked to Blacks. This led to the group's high probability of chronic mental illness, observed even when individual-level social structural and demographic factors were controlled. Future research should specify the particular kinds of vulnerability that created the additional disadvantage experienced by Black respondents.

Heightened fire probability in Indonesia in non-drought conditions: the effect of increasing temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Kátia; Verchot, Louis; Baethgen, Walter; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel; Martius, Christopher

2017-05-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This was the case of the events of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated the impact of temperature on fires and found that when the July-October (JASO) period is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature is modest. In contrast, under normal-to-wet conditions, fire probability increases sharply when JASO is anomalously warm. This describes a regime in which an active fire season is not limited to drought years. Greater susceptibility to fires in response to a warmer environment finds support in the high evapotranspiration rates observed in normal-to-wet and warm conditions in Indonesia. We also find that fire probability in wet JASOs would be considerably less sensitive to temperature were not for the added effect of recent positive trends. Near-term regional climate projections reveal that, despite negligible changes in precipitation, a continuing warming trend will heighten fire probability over the next few decades especially in non-drought years. Mild fire seasons currently observed in association with wet conditions and cool temperatures will become rare events in Indonesia.

Effects of acidification on metal accumulation by aquatic plants and invertebrates. 1. Constructed wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albers, P.H.; Camardese, M.B.

1993-01-01

The pH of lake water is often inversely correlated with concentrations of trace metals in the water column. Concentrations of Al, Cd, Ca, Cu, Fe, Hg, Pb, Mg, Mn, Ni, P, and Zn were compared in water, plants, and aquatic insects from three acidified (pH 5.0) and three nonacidified (pH 6.5) constructed wetlands. Concentrations of Zn in water and bur-reed (Sparganium americanum) were higher in acidified wetlands than in nonacidified wetlands. Floating nonrooted plants contained mean concentrations of Fe, Mg, and Mn that were higher than recommended maximum levels for poultry feed. The mean concentrations of all metals in insects were below recommended maximum levels for poultry feed and below levels that cause toxic effects in wild birds. Smaller than expected increases of metal concentrations in the water of acidified wetlands were probably due to limited mobilization of metals from the sediments and insignificant changes in sedimentation of aqueous metals. Calcium was lower in acidified than in nonacidified wetland water, but the Ca content of insects and bur-reed was not lower. Low concentrations of Ca in aquatic insects from both groups of wetlands indicate that calcium-rich crustaceans and mollusks are probably important to female waterfowl and their young during the spring, when invertebrates make up the majority of the diet. Although toxic effects from metal ingestion seem to be unlikely consequences of wetland acidification, the adverse effect of low pH on the occurrence of crustaceans and mollusks could threaten egg production and development of young.

Striatal activity is modulated by target probability.

PubMed

Hon, Nicholas

2017-06-14

Target probability has well-known neural effects. In the brain, target probability is known to affect frontal activity, with lower probability targets producing more prefrontal activation than those that occur with higher probability. Although the effect of target probability on cortical activity is well specified, its effect on subcortical structures such as the striatum is less well understood. Here, I examined this issue and found that the striatum was highly responsive to target probability. This is consistent with its hypothesized role in the gating of salient information into higher-order task representations. The current data are interpreted in light of that fact that different components of the striatum are sensitive to different types of task-relevant information.

Effects of multiple levels of social organization on survival and abundance.

PubMed

Ward, Eric J; Semmens, Brice X; Holmes, Elizabeth E; Balcomb Iii, Ken C

2011-04-01

Identifying how social organization shapes individual behavior, survival, and fecundity of animals that live in groups can inform conservation efforts and improve forecasts of population abundance, even when the mechanism responsible for group-level differences is unknown. We constructed a hierarchical Bayesian model to quantify the relative variability in survival rates among different levels of social organization (matrilines and pods) of an endangered population of killer whales (Orcinus orca). Individual killer whales often participate in group activities such as prey sharing and cooperative hunting. The estimated age-specific survival probabilities and survivorship curves differed considerably among pods and to a lesser extent among matrilines (within pods). Across all pods, males had lower life expectancy than females. Differences in survival between pods may be caused by a combination of factors that vary across the population's range, including reduced prey availability, contaminants in prey, and human activity. Our modeling approach could be applied to demographic rates for other species and for parameters other than survival, including reproduction, prey selection, movement, and detection probabilities. Conservation Biology ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original US government works.

Proposal and Implementation of a Robust Sensing Method for DVB-T Signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Chunyi; Rahman, Mohammad Azizur; Harada, Hiroshi

This paper proposes a sensing method for TV signals of DVB-T standard to realize effective TV White Space (TVWS) Communication. In the TVWS technology trial organized by the Infocomm Development Authority (iDA) of Singapore, with regard to the sensing level and sensing time, detecting DVB-T signal at the level of -120dBm over an 8MHz channel with a sensing time below 1 second is required. To fulfill such a strict sensing requirement, we propose a smart sensing method which combines feature detection and energy detection (CFED), and is also characterized by using dynamic threshold selection (DTS) based on a threshold table to improve sensing robustness to noise uncertainty. The DTS based CFED (DTS-CFED) is evaluated by computer simulations and is also implemented into a hardware sensing prototype. The results show that the DTS-CFED achieves a detection probability above 0.9 for a target false alarm probability of 0.1 for DVB-T signals at the level of -120dBm over an 8MHz channel with the sensing time equals to 0.1 second.

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

PubMed Central

Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

2016-01-01

Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

Acoustic and semantic interference effects in words and pictures.

PubMed

Dhawan, M; Pellegrino, J W

1977-05-01

Interference effects for pictures and words were investigated using a probe-recall task. Word stimuli showed acoustic interference effects for items at the end of the list and semantic interference effects for items at the beginning of the list, similar to results of Kintsch and Buschke (1969). Picture stimuli showed large semantic interference effects at all list positions with smaller acoustic interference effects. The results were related to latency data on picture-word processing and interpreted in terms of the differential order, probability, and/or speed of access to acoustic and semantic levels of processing. A levels of processing explanation of picture-word retention differences was related to dual coding theory. Both theoretical positions converge on an explanation of picture-word retention differences as a function of the relative capacity for semantic or associative processing.

Effects of ethanol and water extracts of propolis (bee glue) on acute inflammatory animal models.

PubMed

Hu, Fuliang; Hepburn, H R; Li, Yinghua; Chen, M; Radloff, S E; Daya, S

2005-09-14

The anti-inflammatory effects of ethanol (EEP) and water (WSD) extracts in ICR mice and Wistar rats were analyzed. Both WSD and EEP exhibited significant anti-inflammatory effects in animal models with respect to thoracic capillary vessel leakage in mice, carrageenan-induced oedema, carrageenan-induced pleurisy, acute lung damage in rats. The mechanisms for the anti-inflammatory effects probably involve decreasing prostaglandin-E(2) (PGE(2)) and nitric oxide (NO) levels. In rats with Freund's complete adjuvant (FCA) induced arthritis, propolis extracts significantly inhibited the increase of interleukin-6 (IL-6) in inflamed tissues, but had no significant effect on levels of interleukin-2 (IL-2) and interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma). The results are consistent with the interpretation that EEP and WSD may exert these effects by inhibiting the activation and differentiation of mononuclear macrophages.

Practice Parameter update: Management issues for women with epilepsy—Focus on pregnancy (an evidence-based review): Teratogenesis and perinatal outcomes

PubMed Central

Harden, C. L.; Meador, K. J.; Pennell, P. B.; Hauser, W. A.; Gronseth, G. S.; French, J. A.; Wiebe, S.; Thurman, D.; Koppel, B. S.; Kaplan, P. W.; Robinson, J. N.; Hopp, J.; Ting, T. Y.; Gidal, B.; Hovinga, C. A.; Wilner, A. N.; Vazquez, B.; Holmes, L.; Krumholz, A.; Finnell, R.; Hirtz, D.; Le Guen, C.

2009-01-01

Objective: To reassess the evidence for management issues related to the care of women with epilepsy (WWE) during pregnancy. Methods: Systematic review of relevant articles published between January 1985 and June 2007. Results: It is highly probable that intrauterine first-trimester valproate (VPA) exposure has higher risk of major congenital malformations (MCMs) compared to carbamazepine and possible compared to phenytoin or lamotrigine. Compared to untreated WWE, it is probable that VPA as part of polytherapy and possible that VPA as monotherapy contribute to the development of MCMs. It is probable that antiepileptic drug (AED) polytherapy as compared to monotherapy regimens contributes to the development of MCMs and to reduced cognitive outcomes. For monotherapy, intrauterine exposure to VPA probably reduces cognitive outcomes. Further, monotherapy exposure to phenytoin or phenobarbital possibly reduces cognitive outcomes. Neonates of WWE taking AEDs probably have an increased risk of being small for gestational age and possibly have an increased risk of a 1-minute Apgar score of <7. Recommendations: If possible, avoidance of valproate (VPA) and antiepileptic drug (AED) polytherapy during the first trimester of pregnancy should be considered to decrease the risk of major congenital malformations (Level B). If possible, avoidance of VPA and AED polytherapy throughout pregnancy should be considered to prevent reduced cognitive outcomes (Level B). If possible, avoidance of phenytoin and phenobarbital during pregnancy may be considered to prevent reduced cognitive outcomes (Level C). Pregnancy risk stratification should reflect that the offspring of women with epilepsy taking AEDs are probably at increased risk for being small for gestational age (Level B) and possibly at increased risk of 1-minute Apgar scores of <7 (Level C). PMID:19398681

Women's decision-making autonomy and children's schooling in rural Mozambique.

PubMed

Luz, Luciana; Agadjanian, Victor

2015-03-24

Women's decision-making autonomy in developing settings has been shown to improve child survival and health outcomes. However, little research has addressed possible connections between women's autonomy and children's schooling. To examine the relationship between rural women's decision-making autonomy and enrollment status of primary school-age children living in their households and how this relationship differs by child's gender. The analysis uses data from a 2009 survey of rural households in four districts of Gaza province in southern Mozambique. Multilevel logistic models predict the probability of being in school for children between 6 and 14 years old. The results show a positive association of women's decision-making autonomy with the probability of being enrolled in primary school for daughters, but not for sons. The effect of women's autonomy is net of other women's characteristics typically associated with enrollment and does not mediate the effects of those characteristics. Based on the results, we argue that women with higher levels of decision-making autonomy may have a stronger preference for daughters' schooling and may have a greater say in making and implementing decisions regarding daughters' education, compared to women with lower autonomy levels. Results also illustrate a need for considering a broader set of autonomy-related characteristics when examining the effects of women's status on children's educational outcomes.

Relationships among parental monitoring and sensation seeking on the development of substance use disorder among college students

PubMed Central

Kaynak, Övgü; Meyers, Kathleen; Caldeira, Kimberly M.; Vincent, Kathryn B.; Winters, Ken C.; Arria, Amelia M.

2012-01-01

Substance use disorder is a serious health problem that tends to manifest in late adolescence. Attempting to influence targetable risk and protective factors holds promise for prevention and treatment. Survey data from 1,253 college students (48.5% male, 26.9% non-White) were used to investigate the independent and combined effects of two prominent factors, sensation seeking and parental monitoring, on the probability of alcohol and/or cannabis dependence during the first year of college. In multivariate analyses that controlled for high school use, gender, race, mother’s education, and importance of religion, retrospective reports by the student of parental behavior during the last year of high school indicated that higher levels of parental monitoring had a direct effect on reducing risk for alcohol dependence during the first year of college, but not on cannabis dependence. High levels of sensation seeking were associated with increased risk for both alcohol and cannabis dependence. No interaction effects were found. The results extend prior findings by highlighting influences of pre-college parental monitoring and sensation seeking on the probability of alcohol and/or cannabis dependence during the first year of college. The findings also suggest that these two factors are useful in identifying college students at high risk for alcohol and/or cannabis dependence. PMID:23017733

Quantization of the Szekeres system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paliathanasis, A.; Zampeli, Adamantia; Christodoulakis, T.; Mustafa, M. T.

2018-06-01

We study the quantum corrections on the Szekeres system in the context of canonical quantization in the presence of symmetries. We start from an effective point-like Lagrangian with two integrals of motion, one corresponding to the Hamiltonian and the other to a second rank killing tensor. Imposing their quantum version on the wave function results to a solution which is then interpreted in the context of Bohmian mechanics. In this semiclassical approach, it is shown that there is no quantum corrections, thus the classical trajectories of the Szekeres system are not affected at this level. Finally, we define a probability function which shows that a stationary surface of the probability corresponds to a classical exact solution.

Aggregate and individual replication probability within an explicit model of the research process.

PubMed

Miller, Jeff; Schwarz, Wolf

2011-09-01

We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by obtaining either a statistically significant result in the same direction or any effect in that direction. We analyze both the probability of successfully replicating a particular experimental effect (i.e., the individual replication probability) and the average probability of successful replication across different studies within some research context (i.e., the aggregate replication probability), and we identify the conditions under which the latter can be approximated using the formulas of Killeen (2005a, 2007). We show how both of these probabilities depend on parameters of the research context that would rarely be known in practice. In addition, we show that the statistical uncertainty associated with the size of an initial observed effect would often prevent accurate estimation of the desired individual replication probability even if these research context parameters were known exactly. We conclude that accurate estimates of replication probability are generally unattainable.

Multi-level biological responses in Ucides cordatus (Linnaeus, 1763) (Brachyura, Ucididae) as indicators of conservation status in mangrove areas from the western atlantic.

PubMed

Duarte, Luis Felipe de Almeida; Souza, Caroline Araújo de; Nobre, Caio Rodrigues; Pereira, Camilo Dias Seabra; Pinheiro, Marcelo Antonio Amaro

2016-11-01

There is a global lack of knowledge on tropical ecotoxicology, particularly in terms of mangrove areas. These areas often serve as nurseries or homes for several animal species, including Ucides cordatus (the uçá crab). This species is widely distributed, is part of the diet of human coastal communities, and is considered to be a sentinel species due to its sensitivity to toxic xenobiotics in natural environments. Sublethal damages to benthic populations reveal pre-pathological conditions, but discussions of the implications are scarce in the literature. In Brazil, the state of São Paulo offers an interesting scenario for ecotoxicology and population studies: it is easy to distinguish between mangroves that are well preserved and those which are significantly impacted by human activity. The objectives of this study were to provide the normal baseline values for the frequency of Micronucleated cells (MN‰) and for neutral red retention time (NRRT) in U. cordatus at pristine locations, as well to indicate the conservation status of different mangrove areas using a multi-level biological response approach in which these biomarkers and population indicators (condition factor and crab density) are applied in relation to environmental quality indicators (determined via information in the literature and solid waste volume). A mangrove area with no effects of impact (areas of reference or pristine areas) presented a mean value of MN‰<3 and NRRT>120min, values which were assumed as baseline values representing genetic and physiological normality. A significant correlation was found between NRRT and MN, with both showing similar and effective results for distinguishing between different mangrove areas according to conservation status. Furthermore, crab density was lower in more impacted mangrove areas, a finding which also reflects the effects of sublethal damage; this finding was not determined by condition factor measurements. Multi-level biological responses were able to reflect the conservation status of the mangrove areas studied using information on guideline values of MN‰, NRRT, and density of the uçá crab in order to categorize three levels of human impacts in mangrove areas: PNI (probable null impact); PLI (probable low impact); and PHI (probable high impact). Results confirm the success of U. cordatus species' multi-level biological responses in diagnosing threats to mangrove areas. Therefore, this species represents an effective tool in studies on mangrove conservation statuses in the Western Atlantic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Critically Evaluated Energy Levels, Spectral Lines, Transition Probabilities, and Intensities of Neutral Vanadium (V i)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saloman, Edward B.; Kramida, Alexander

2017-08-01

The energy levels, observed spectral lines, and transition probabilities of the neutral vanadium atom, V i, have been compiled. Also included are values for some forbidden lines that may be of interest to the astrophysical community. Experimental Landé g -factors and leading percentage compositions for the levels are included where available, as well as wavelengths calculated from the energy levels (Ritz wavelengths). Wavelengths are reported for 3985 transitions, and 549 energy levels are determined. The observed relative intensities normalized to a common scale are provided.

Individual covariation in life-history traits: seeing the trees despite the forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Link, W.A.; Cooch, E.G.; Monnat, J.-Y.; Danchin, E.

2002-01-01

We investigated the influence of age on survival and breeding rates in a long-lived species Rissa tridactyla using models with individual random effects permitting variation and covariation in fitness components among individuals. Differences in survival or breeding probabilities among individuals are substantial, and there was positive covariation between survival and breeding probability; birds that were more likely to survive were also more likely to breed, given that they survived. The pattern of age-related variation in these rates detected at the individual level differed from that observed at the population level. Our results provided confirmation of what has been suggested by other investigators: within-cohort phenotypic selection can mask senescence. Although this phenomenon has been extensively studied in humans and captive animals, conclusive evidence of the discrepancy between population-level and individual-level patterns of age-related variation in life-history traits is extremely rare in wild animal populations. Evolutionary studies of the influence of age on life-history traits should use approaches differentiating population level from the genuine influence of age: only the latter is relevant to theories of life-history evolution. The development of models permitting access to individual variation in fitness is a promising advance for the study of senescence and evolutionary processes.

An immune reaction may be necessary for cancer development.

PubMed

Prehn, Richmond T

2006-02-03

The hypothesis of immunosurveillance suggests that new neoplasms arise very frequently, but most are destroyed almost at their inception by an immune response. Its correctness has been debated for many years. In its support, it has been shown that the incidences of many tumor types, though apparently not all, tend to be increased in immunodeficient animals or humans, but this observation does not end the debate. There is an alternative to the surveillance hypothesis; numerous studies have shown that the effect of an immune reaction on a tumor is biphasic. For each tumor, there is some quantitatively low level of immune reaction that, relative to no reaction, is facilitating, perhaps even necessary for the tumor's growth in vivo. The optimum level of this facilitating reaction may often be less than the level of immunity that the tumor might engender in a normal subject. The failure of a tumor to grow as well in the normal as it does in the immunosuppressed host is probably not caused by a lack of tumor-cell killing in the suppressed host. Instead, the higher level of immune response in a normal animal, even if it does not rise to tumor-inhibitory levels, probably gives less positive support to tumor growth. This seems more than a semantic distinction.

An immune reaction may be necessary for cancer development

PubMed Central

Prehn, Richmond T

2006-01-01

Background The hypothesis of immunosurveillance suggests that new neoplasms arise very frequently, but most are destroyed almost at their inception by an immune response. Its correctness has been debated for many years. In its support, it has been shown that the incidences of many tumor types, though apparently not all, tend to be increased in immunodeficient animals or humans, but this observation does not end the debate. Alternative model There is an alternative to the surveillance hypothesis; numerous studies have shown that the effect of an immune reaction on a tumor is biphasic. For each tumor, there is some quantitatively low level of immune reaction that, relative to no reaction, is facilitating, perhaps even necessary for the tumor's growth in vivo. The optimum level of this facilitating reaction may often be less than the level of immunity that the tumor might engender in a normal subject. Conclusion The failure of a tumor to grow as well in the normal as it does in the immunosuppressed host is probably not caused by a lack of tumor-cell killing in the suppressed host. Instead, the higher level of immune response in a normal animal, even if it does not rise to tumor-inhibitory levels, probably gives less positive support to tumor growth. This seems more than a semantic distinction. PMID:16457723

The relationship between religiosity and cancer screening among Vietnamese women in the United States: the moderating role of acculturation.

PubMed

Nguyen, Anh B; Hood, Kristina B; Belgrave, Faye Z

2012-01-01

In this study the authors explore the relationship between intrinsic, personal extrinsic, and social extrinsic religiosity to breast and cervical cancer screening efficacy and behavior among Vietnamese women recruited from a Catholic Vietnamese church and a Buddhist temple in the Richmond, Virginia metropolitan area. The potential moderating effect of acculturation was of interest. Participants were 111 Vietnamese women who participated in a larger cancer screening intervention. Data collection began early fall of 2010 and ended in late spring 2011. High levels of acculturation were associated with increased self-efficacy for Pap tests and having received a Pap test. Acculturation moderated the relationships between religiosity and self-efficacy for breast and cervical cancer screening. Higher levels of social extrinsic religiosity were associated with increased efficacy for cancer screening among less acculturated women. Acculturation also moderated the relationship between religiosity and breast cancer screening. Specifically, for less acculturated women, increasing levels of intrinsic religiosity and personal extrinsic religiosity were associated with lower likelihood probability of Pap testing. For highly acculturated women, increasing levels of intrinsic religiosity and personal extrinsic religiosity were associated with higher likelihood probability of Pap testing. The authors' findings demonstrate the need for further investigation of the dynamic interplay of multi-level factors that influence cancer screening.

Correlation of probability scores of placenta accreta on magnetic resonance imaging with hemorrhagic morbidity.

PubMed

Lim, Grace; Horowitz, Jeanne M; Berggruen, Senta; Ernst, Linda M; Linn, Rebecca L; Hewlett, Bradley; Kim, Jennifer; Chalifoux, Laurie A; McCarthy, Robert J

2016-11-01

To evaluate the hypothesis that assigning grades to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings of suspected placenta accreta will correlate with hemorrhagic outcomes. We chose a single-center, retrospective, observational design. Nulliparous or multiparous women who had antenatal placental MRI performed at a tertiary level academic hospital were included. Cases with antenatal placental MRI were included and compared with cases without MRI performed. Two radiologists assigned a probability score for accreta to each study. Estimated blood loss and transfusion requirements were compared among groups by the Kruskal-Wallis H test. Thirty-five cases had placental MRI performed. MRI performance was associated with higher blood loss compared with the non-MRI group (2600 [1400-4500]mL vs 900[600-1500]mL, P<.001). There was no difference in estimated blood loss (P=.31) or transfusion (P=.57) among the MRI probability groups. In cases of suspected placenta accreta, probability scores for antenatal placental MRI may not be associated with increasing degrees of hemorrhage. Continued research is warranted to determine the effectiveness of assigning probability scores for antenatal accreta imaging studies, combined with clinical indices of suspicion, in assisting with antenatal multidisciplinary team planning for operative management of this morbid condition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Structure induction in diagnostic causal reasoning.

PubMed

Meder, Björn; Mayrhofer, Ralf; Waldmann, Michael R

2014-07-01

Our research examines the normative and descriptive adequacy of alternative computational models of diagnostic reasoning from single effects to single causes. Many theories of diagnostic reasoning are based on the normative assumption that inferences from an effect to its cause should reflect solely the empirically observed conditional probability of cause given effect. We argue against this assumption, as it neglects alternative causal structures that may have generated the sample data. Our structure induction model of diagnostic reasoning takes into account the uncertainty regarding the underlying causal structure. A key prediction of the model is that diagnostic judgments should not only reflect the empirical probability of cause given effect but should also depend on the reasoner's beliefs about the existence and strength of the link between cause and effect. We confirmed this prediction in 2 studies and showed that our theory better accounts for human judgments than alternative theories of diagnostic reasoning. Overall, our findings support the view that in diagnostic reasoning people go "beyond the information given" and use the available data to make inferences on the (unobserved) causal rather than on the (observed) data level. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Reinvestigation of the effect of heat pretreatment of corn fiber and corn germ on the levels of extractable tocopherols and tocotrienols.

PubMed

Moreau, Robert A; Hicks, Kevin B

2006-10-18

We previously reported that heat pretreatment of corn fiber (150 degrees C, 1 h) caused a tenfold increase in the levels of extractable gamma-tocopherol. The current study was a reinvestigation of the previous effect, using improved methods (HPLC with fluorescence detection, diode-array UV detection, and mass spectrometry) for tocol analysis. Heat pretreatment did not cause an increase in the levels of any of the tocopherols or tocotrienols in corn fiber oil, but lowered the levels of three of the tocols and had no effect on the levels of the other two tocols. Heat pretreatment of corn germ had a similar effect. UV and mass spectra indicated that the peak that we had identified as gamma-tocopherol in our previous report was probably a mixture of oxidation products of triacylglycerols. Thus, heat treatment of corn germ or other corn-oil containing fractions at high temperatures leads to decreases in gamma-tocopherol, gamma-tocotrienol, and delta-tocotrienol and to the production of triacylglycerol oxidation products.

Develop Measures of Effectiveness and Deployment Optimization Rules for Networked Ground Micro-Sensors

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-05-01

types and total #) Ø Control of Sensors ( Scheduling ) Ø Coverage (Time & Area) Uncontrollable Inputs ØWeather Ø Atmospheric Effects Ø Equipment...are widely scattered and used to cue or wakeup other higher-level sensors. Trip line sensors consist of some combination of acoustic, seismic and...Employ a mix if different sensor types in order to increase detection probability 4.4.4.2 Minimize Battery Power • Set schedule turn on and off

Modeling electron emission and surface effects from diamond cathodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitrov, D. A.; Smithe, D.; Cary, J. R.; Ben-Zvi, I.; Rao, T.; Smedley, J.; Wang, E.

2015-02-01

We developed modeling capabilities, within the Vorpal particle-in-cell code, for three-dimensional simulations of surface effects and electron emission from semiconductor photocathodes. They include calculation of emission probabilities using general, piece-wise continuous, space-time dependent surface potentials, effective mass, and band bending field effects. We applied these models, in combination with previously implemented capabilities for modeling charge generation and transport in diamond, to investigate the emission dependence on applied electric field in the range from approximately 2 MV/m to 17 MV/m along the [100] direction. The simulation results were compared to experimental data. For the considered parameter regime, conservation of transverse electron momentum (in the plane of the emission surface) allows direct emission from only two (parallel to [100]) of the six equivalent lowest conduction band valleys. When the electron affinity χ is the only parameter varied in the simulations, the value χ = 0.31 eV leads to overall qualitative agreement with the probability of emission deduced from experiments. Including band bending in the simulations improves the agreement with the experimental data, particularly at low applied fields, but not significantly. Using surface potentials with different profiles further allows us to investigate the emission as a function of potential barrier height, width, and vacuum level position. However, adding surface patches with different levels of hydrogenation, modeled with position-dependent electron affinity, leads to the closest agreement with the experimental data.

Comparative Analytical Study of Evoked and Event Related Potentials as Correlates of Cognitive Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-07-16

lower brain levels, probably precognitive , suggesting the need to distinguish the components in humans that depend on cognition from those that do...definition of the stimulus regime and that much of this response occurs at lower brain levels, probably precognitive , suggesting the need to distinguish the

Organizational factors, planning capacity, and integration challenges constrain provincial planning processes for nutrition in decentralizing Vietnam.

PubMed

Lapping, Karin; Frongillo, Edward A; Nguyen, Phuong H; Coates, Jennifer; Webb, Patrick; Menon, Purnima

2014-09-01

Translating national policies and guidelines into effective action at the subnational level (e.g., province or region) is a prerequisite for ensuring an impact on nutrition. In several countries, including Vietnam, the focus of this paper, this process is affected by the quality of the decentralized process of planning and action. This study examined how provincial planning processes for nutrition occurred in Vietnam during 2009 and 2010. Key goals were to understand variability in processes across provinces, identify factors that influenced the process, and assess the usefulness of the process for individuals involved in planning and action. A qualitative case-study methodology was used. Data were drawn from interviews with 51 government officials in eight provinces. The study found little variability in the planning process among these eight provinces, probably due to a planning process that was predominantly a fiscal exercise within the confines of a largely centralized structure. Respondents were almost unanimous about the main barriers: a top-down approach to planning, limited human capacity for effective planning at subnational levels, and difficulty in integrating actions from multiple sectors. Provincial-level actors were deeply dissatisfied with the nature of their role in the process. Despite the rhetoric to the contrary, too much power is probably still retained at the central level. A strategic multiyear approach is needed to strengthen the provincial planning process and address many of the key barriers identified in this study.

Direct and indirect effects of the fungicide Carbendazim in tropical freshwater microcosms.

PubMed

Daam, Michiel A; Satapornvanit, Kriengkrai; Van den Brink, Paul J; Nogueira, António J A

2010-02-01

Direct and indirect effects of the fungicide carbendazim on ecosystem structure and functioning were studied < or =8 weeks after application (nominal concentrations: 0, 3.3, 33, 100, and 1000 microg/L) to outdoor microcosms in Thailand. Direct effects on macroinvertebrates are discussed in detail in a separate article. The present article presents the effects on other end points and discusses the hypothesized ecologic effect chain. Negative treatment effects on the zooplankton community were only recorded for the highest carbendazim treatment (NOEC(community) = 100 microg/L). The rotifer Keratella tropica, cladocerans (Moina micrura, Ceriodaphnia cornuta, and Diaphanosoma sp.), and cyclopoid copepods were decreased or even eliminated at this treatment level. The decrease in zooplankton and macroinvertebrate abundances was accompanied by an increase in numbers of several tolerant invertebrates, presumably caused by a release from competition and predation. The death of sensitive invertebrates probably also led to an overall decreased grazing pressure because increased levels of chlorophyll-a and bloom of the floating macrophyte Wolffia sp. were noted. The increase in primary producers is discussed to be the probable cause of changes in physicochemical water conditions, eventually resulting in an anoxic water layer during the last 3 weeks of the experiment. This is likely to have resulted in decreased invertebrate abundances noted in that period. Furthermore, the decreased decomposition of Musa (banana) leaves observed 8 weeks after application is considered to be the indirect effect of a decreased microbial activity resulting from these anoxic water conditions, rather than a direct toxic effect of carbendazim.

A Statistical Study of Serum Cholesterol Level by Gender and Race.

PubMed

Tharu, Bhikhari Prasad; Tsokos, Chris P

2017-07-25

Cholesterol level (CL) is growing concerned as health issue in human health since it is considered one of the causes in heart diseases. A study of cholesterol level can provide insight about its nature and characteristics. A cross-sectional study. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANS) II was conducted on a probability sample of approximately 28,000 persons in the USA and cholesterol level is obtained from laboratory results. Samples were selected so that certain population groups thought to be at high risk of malnutrition. Study included 11,864 persons for CL cases with 9,602 males and 2,262 females with races: whites, blacks, and others. Non-parametric statistical tests and goodness of fit test have been used to identify probability distributions. The study concludes that the cholesterol level exhibits significant racial and gender differences in terms of probability distributions. The study has concluded that white people are relatively higher at risk than black people to have risk line and high risk cholesterol. The study clearly indicates that black males normally have higher cholesterol. Females have lower variation in cholesterol than males. There exists gender and racial discrepancies in cholesterol which has been identified as lognormal and gamma probability distributions. White individuals seem to be at a higher risk of having high risk cholesterol level than blacks. Females tend to have higher variation in cholesterol level than males.

Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

2015-10-01

In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

PubMed

Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

2012-12-20

Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Space Radiation Risk Assessment for Future Lunar Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ponomarev, Artem; Atwell, Bill; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

For lunar exploration mission design, radiation risk assessments require the understanding of future space radiation environments in support of resource management decisions, operational planning, and a go/no-go decision. The future GCR flux was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which was coupled with the estimated neutron monitor rate from the Climax monitor using a statistical model. A probability distribution function for solar particle event (SPE) occurrence was formed from proton fluence measurements of SPEs occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Large proton SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice for which the fluences are greater than 2 10(exp 9) protons/sq cm for energies greater than 30 MeV, were also combined to extend the probability calculation for high level of proton fluences. The probability with which any given proton fluence level of a SPE will be exceeded during a space mission of defined duration was then calculated. Analytic energy spectra of SPEs at different ranks of the integral fluences were constructed over broad energy ranges extending out to GeV, and representative exposure levels were analyzed at those fluences. For the development of an integrated strategy for radiation protection on lunar exploration missions, effective doses at various points inside a spacecraft were calculated with detailed geometry models representing proposed transfer vehicle and habitat concepts. Preliminary radiation risk assessments from SPE and GCR were compared for various configuration concepts of radiation shelter in exploratory-class spacecrafts.

The "Residential" Effect Fallacy in Neighborhood and Health Studies: Formal Definition, Empirical Identification, and Correction.

PubMed

Chaix, Basile; Duncan, Dustin; Vallée, Julie; Vernez-Moudon, Anne; Benmarhnia, Tarik; Kestens, Yan

2017-11-01

Because of confounding from the urban/rural and socioeconomic organizations of territories and resulting correlation between residential and nonresidential exposures, classically estimated residential neighborhood-outcome associations capture nonresidential environment effects, overestimating residential intervention effects. Our study diagnosed and corrected this "residential" effect fallacy bias applicable to a large fraction of neighborhood and health studies. Our empirical application investigated the effect that hypothetical interventions raising the residential number of services would have on the probability that a trip is walked. Using global positioning systems tracking and mobility surveys over 7 days (227 participants and 7440 trips), we employed a multilevel linear probability model to estimate the trip-level association between residential number of services and walking to derive a naïve intervention effect estimate and a corrected model accounting for numbers of services at the residence, trip origin, and trip destination to determine a corrected intervention effect estimate (true effect conditional on assumptions). There was a strong correlation in service densities between the residential neighborhood and nonresidential places. From the naïve model, hypothetical interventions raising the residential number of services to 200, 500, and 1000 were associated with an increase by 0.020, 0.055, and 0.109 of the probability of walking in the intervention groups. Corrected estimates were of 0.007, 0.019, and 0.039. Thus, naïve estimates were overestimated by multiplicative factors of 3.0, 2.9, and 2.8. Commonly estimated residential intervention-outcome associations substantially overestimate true effects. Our somewhat paradoxical conclusion is that to estimate residential effects, investigators critically need information on nonresidential places visited.

A "Virtual Spin" on the Teaching of Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beck, Shari A.; Huse, Vanessa E.

2007-01-01

This article, which describes integrating virtual manipulatives with the teaching of probability at the elementary level, puts a "virtual spin" on the teaching of probability to provide more opportunities for students to experience successful learning. The traditional use of concrete manipulatives is enhanced with virtual coins and spinners from…

Structural health monitoring and probability of detection estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsyth, David S.

2016-02-01

Structural health monitoring (SHM) methods are often based on nondestructive testing (NDT) sensors and are often proposed as replacements for NDT to lower cost and/or improve reliability. In order to take advantage of SHM for life cycle management, it is necessary to determine the Probability of Detection (POD) of the SHM system just as for traditional NDT to ensure that the required level of safety is maintained. Many different possibilities exist for SHM systems, but one of the attractive features of SHM versus NDT is the ability to take measurements very simply after the SHM system is installed. Using a simple statistical model of POD, some authors have proposed that very high rates of SHM system data sampling can result in high effective POD even in situations where an individual test has low POD. In this paper, we discuss the theoretical basis for determining the effect of repeated inspections, and examine data from SHM experiments against this framework to show how the effective POD from multiple tests can be estimated.

The Effect of Leisure-Time Physical Activity on Obesity, Diabetes, High BP and Heart Disease Among Canadians: Evidence from 2000/2001 to 2005/2006.

PubMed

Sarma, Sisira; Devlin, Rose Anne; Gilliland, Jason; Campbell, M Karen; Zaric, Gregory S

2015-12-01

Although studies have looked at the effect of physical activity on obesity and other health outcomes, the causal nature of this relationship remains unclear. We fill this gap by investigating the impact of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and work-related physical activity (WRPA) on obesity and chronic conditions in Canadians aged 18-75 using instrumental variable and recursive bivariate probit approaches. Average local temperatures surrounding the respondents' interview month are used as a novel instrument to help identify the causal relationship between LTPA and health outcomes. We find that an active level of LTPA (i.e., walking ≥1 h/day) reduces the probability of obesity by five percentage points, which increases to 11 percentage points if also combined with some WRPA. WRPA exhibits a negative effect on the probability of obesity and chronic conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reduction of cardiovascular risk after preeclampsia: the role of framing and perceived probability in modifying behavior.

PubMed

Bokslag, Anouk; Hermes, Wietske; de Groot, Christianne J M; Teunissen, Pim W

2016-11-01

To reduce cardiovascular risk after preeclampsia, we investigated the effect of framing, the perceived probability and its interaction, on the willingness to modify behavior. Participants scored their willingness to modify behavior on two cases with different probabilities of developing cardiovascular disease. Both cases were either presented as "chance of health" or "risk of disease". 165 questionnaires were analyzed. ANOVA revealed a significant effect of probability, non-significant effect of framing and a non-significant interaction between probability and framing. Perceived probability influences willingness to modify behavior to reduce cardiovascular risk after preeclampsia; framing and the interaction was not of influence.

Estimating the risk of bladder and kidney cancer from exposure to low-levels of arsenic in drinking water, Nova Scotia, Canada.

PubMed

Saint-Jacques, Nathalie; Brown, Patrick; Nauta, Laura; Boxall, James; Parker, Louise; Dummer, Trevor J B

2018-01-01

Arsenic in drinking water impacts health. Highest levels of arsenic have been historically observed in Taiwan and Bangladesh but the contaminant has been affecting the health of people globally. Strong associations have been confirmed between exposure to high-levels of arsenic in drinking water and a wide range of diseases, including cancer. However, at lower levels of exposure, especially near the current World Health Organization regulatory limit (10μg/L), this association is inconsistent as the effects are mostly extrapolated from high exposure studies. This ecological study used Bayesian inference to model the relative risk of bladder and kidney cancer at these lower concentrations-0-2μg/L; 2-5μg/L and; ≥5μg/L of arsenic-in 864 bladder and 525 kidney cancers diagnosed in the study area, Nova Scotia, Canada between 1998 and 2010. The model included proxy measures of lifestyle (e.g. smoking) and accounted for spatial dependencies. Overall, bladder cancer risk was 16% (2-5μg/L) and 18% (≥5μg/L) greater than that of the referent group (<2μg/L), with posterior probabilities of 88% and 93% for these risks being above 1. Effect sizes for kidney cancer were 5% (2-5μg/L) and 14% (≥5μg/L) above that of the referent group (<2μg/L), with probabilities of 61% and 84%. High-risk areas were common in southwestern areas, where higher arsenic-levels are associated with the local geology. The study suggests an increased bladder cancer, and potentially kidney cancer, risk from exposure to drinking water arsenic-levels within the current the World Health Organization maximum acceptable concentration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonmathematical models for evolution of altruism, and for group selection (peck order-territoriality-ant colony-dual-determinant model-tri-determinant model).

PubMed

Darlington, P J

1972-02-01

Mathematical biologists have failed to produce a satisfactory general model for evolution of altruism, i.e., of behaviors by which "altruists" benefit other individuals but not themselves; kin selection does not seem to be a sufficient explanation of nonreciprocal altruism. Nonmathematical (but mathematically acceptable) models are now proposed for evolution of negative altruism in dual-determinant and of positive altruism in tri-determinant systems. Peck orders, territorial systems, and an ant society are analyzed as examples. In all models, evolution is primarily by individual selection, probably supplemented by group selection. Group selection is differential extinction of populations. It can act only on populations preformed by selection at the individual level, but can either cancel individual selective trends (effecting evolutionary homeostasis) or supplement them; its supplementary effect is probably increasingly important in the evolution of increasingly organized populations.

Ocean acidification hampers sperm-egg collisions, gamete fusion, and generation of Ca2+ oscillations of a broadcast spawning bivalve, Tegillarca granosa.

PubMed

Shi, Wei; Han, Yu; Guo, Cheng; Zhao, Xinguo; Liu, Saixi; Su, Wenhao; Wang, Yichen; Zha, Shanjie; Chai, Xueliang; Liu, Guangxu

2017-09-01

Although the effect of ocean acidification on fertilization success of marine organisms is increasingly well documented, the underlying mechanisms are not completely understood. The fertilization success of broadcast spawning invertebrates depends on successful sperm-egg collisions, gamete fusion, and standard generation of Ca 2+ oscillations. Therefore, the realistic effects of future ocean pCO 2 levels on these specific aspects of fertilization of Tegillarca granosa were investigated in the present study through sperm velocity trials, fertilization kinetics model analysis, and intracellular Ca 2+ assays, respectively. Results obtained indicated that ocean acidification significantly reduced the fertilization success of T. granosa, which could be accountable by (i) decreased sperm velocity hence reducing the probability for sperm-egg collisions; (ii) lowered probability of gamete fusion for each gamete collision event; and (iii) disrupted intracellular Ca 2+ oscillations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exact transition probabilities for a linear sweep through a Kramers-Kronig resonance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, Chen; Sinitsyn, Nikolai A.

2015-11-19

We consider a localized electronic spin controlled by a circularly polarized optical beam and an external magnetic field. When the frequency of the beam is tuned near an optical resonance with a continuum of higher energy states, effective magnetic fields are induced on the two-level system via the inverse Faraday effect. We explore the process in which the frequency of the beam is made linearly time-dependent so that it sweeps through the optical resonance, starting and ending at the values far away from it. In addition to changes of spin states, Kramers-Kronig relations guarantee that a localized electron can alsomore » escape into a continuum of states. We argue that probabilities of transitions between different possible electronic states after such a sweep of the optical frequency can be found exactly, regardless the shape of the resonance. In conclusion, we also discuss extension of our results to multistate systems.« less

A graph-based system for network-vulnerability analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swiler, L.P.; Phillips, C.

1998-06-01

This paper presents a graph-based approach to network vulnerability analysis. The method is flexible, allowing analysis of attacks from both outside and inside the network. It can analyze risks to a specific network asset, or examine the universe of possible consequences following a successful attack. The graph-based tool can identify the set of attack paths that have a high probability of success (or a low effort cost) for the attacker. The system could be used to test the effectiveness of making configuration changes, implementing an intrusion detection system, etc. The analysis system requires as input a database of common attacks,more » broken into atomic steps, specific network configuration and topology information, and an attacker profile. The attack information is matched with the network configuration information and an attacker profile to create a superset attack graph. Nodes identify a stage of attack, for example the class of machines the attacker has accessed and the user privilege level he or she has compromised. The arcs in the attack graph represent attacks or stages of attacks. By assigning probabilities of success on the arcs or costs representing level-of-effort for the attacker, various graph algorithms such as shortest-path algorithms can identify the attack paths with the highest probability of success.« less

Operationalizing System Importance Measures for Assessing System of System Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandrahasa, Rakshit

In recent times, there has been a shift in focus from component level to system level analysis and an increasing effort to understand and design resilience into the system. Several efforts have been carried out in creating metrics to analyse resilience. Understanding and implementing system resilience in complex System of Systems will help us in building safer and resilient systems. System Importance Measures (SIMs) was formulated to analyse System of System resilience and help in designing a resilient SoS. Here, we operationalize these System Importance Measures for designing a resilient SoS. We first look at the existing methodology to improve the visual representation of system resilience and its usability. We demonstrate this using our first case study with a Naval warfare SoS. We incorporate probability into the SIM formulation. We expand the existing SIMs to quantify the effects of disruptions and mitigation likelihoods. We built a second case study based on Air transportation networks and demonstrated our expanded metrics in both the case studies. SIM based analysis of SoS resilience provides us with two different analysis of resilience, with and without probability. Having an outlook on how the resilience changes with a probability of disruptions can aid the designer making informed choices on design changes and help in creating a resilient SoS.

Spectroscopic investigations of Nd3+ doped flouro- and chloro-borate glasses.

PubMed

Mohan, Shaweta; Thind, Kulwant Singh; Sharma, Gopi; Gerward, Leif

2008-10-01

Spectroscopic and physical properties of Nd3+ doped sodium lead flouro- and chloro-borate glasses of the type 20NaX-30PbO-49.5B2O3-0.5Nd2O3 (X=F and Cl) have been investigated. Optical absorption spectra have been used to determine the Slater Condon (F2, F4, and F6), spin orbit xi4f and Racah parameters (E1, E2, and E3). The oscillator strengths and the intensity parameters Omega2, Omega4 and Omega6 have been determined by the Judd-Ofelt theory, which in turn provide the radiative transition probability (A), total transition probability (A(T)), radiative lifetime (tauR) and branching ratio (beta) for the fluorescent level 4F3/2. The lasing efficiency of the prepared glasses has been characterized by the spectroscopic quality factor (Omega4/Omega6), the value of which is in the range of 0.2-1.5, typical for Nd3+ in different laser hosts. Nephelauxetic effect results in a red shift in the energy levels of Nd3+ for chloroborate glass. The radiative transition probability of the potential lasing transition 4F3/2-->4I11/2 of Nd3+ ions is found to be higher for flouroborate as compared to chloroborate glass.

Effects of hydrogen-like impurity and electromagnetic field on quantum transition of an electron in a Gaussian potential with QD thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xin, Wei; Zhao, Yu-Wei; Sudu; Eerdunchaolu

2018-05-01

Considering Hydrogen-like impurity and the thickness effect, the eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the electronic ground and first exited states in a quantum dot (QD) are derived by using the Lee-Low-Pins-Pekar variational method with the harmonic and Gaussian potentials as the transverse and longitudinal confinement potentials, respectively. A two-level system is constructed on the basis of those two states, and the electronic quantum transition affected by an electromagnetic field is discussed in terms of the two-level system theory. The results indicate the Gaussian potential reflects the real confinement potential more accurately than the parabolic one; the influence of the thickness of the QD on the electronic transition probability is interesting and significant, and cannot be ignored; the electronic transition probability Γ is influenced significantly by some physical quantities, such as the strength of the electron-phonon coupling α, the electric-field strength F, the magnetic-field cyclotron frequency ωc , the barrier height V0 and confinement range L of the asymmetric Gaussian potential, suggesting the transport and optical properties of the QD can be manipulated further though those physical quantities.

[Diet and lifestyle rules in chronic constipation in adults: From fantasy to reality…].

PubMed

Fathallah, Nadia; Bouchard, Dominique; de Parades, Vincent

2017-01-01

Chronic constipation is one of the most common chronic gastrointestinal complaints and a frequent reason for consultation. Lifestyle modification and dietary advice attract a lot of patients, often dissatisfied with a long-term drug intake. These behavioral modifications are recommended as a first-line approach in the treatment of chronic mild constipation in the majority of current guidelines despite a low level of evidence. Fiber supplementation is probably the most relevant measure because of a satisfactory level of proof. It improves stool frequency and consistency. It has a positive effect on excessive straining and colonic transit time. The recommended daily fiber intake is at least 20 to 25g. To avoid side effects like bloating and abdominal pain, it must be gradually adjusted after a several days period. The benefice of increasing water intake or daily physical exercise in the treatment of chronic constipation have a lack of evidence, except specific situations such as elderly, hospitalized, institutionalized, dehydrated people or people consuming fluids less than 500mL/day. Change in environmental defecation conditions or bowel habits are probably anecdotal recommendations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Effects of oolong tea on plasma antioxidative capacity in mice loaded with restraint stress assessed using the oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assay.

PubMed

Kurihara, Hiroshi; Fukami, Harukazu; Asami, Sumio; Toyoda, Yoshiko; Nakai, Masaaki; Shibata, Hiroshi; Yao, Xin-Sheng

2004-07-01

In the present study, we investigated the antioxidative effect of oolong tea in vitro and in vivo using the oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assay. An oolong tea extract, catechin and related compounds suppressed the oxidation of fluorescence induced by AAPH in a dose-dependent manner, that is, they prolonged the antioxidant time in vitro. Oral administration of the oolong tea extract to mice treated with restraint stress increased ORAC activity in plasma as compared with a stress control group. The extract also increased plasma vitamin C levels, and there was a good relationship between ORAC activity and the vitamin C level in plasma. The elevation of plasma ORAC and vitamin C level may have been related to the stress-relieving effect of oolong tea. These effects are probably due to the antioxidative properties of the tea. Thus, these findings suggested that oolong tea has beneficial effects on health related to its antioxidative action.

A Self-Adaptive Dynamic Recognition Model for Fatigue Driving Based on Multi-Source Information and Two Levels of Fusion

PubMed Central

Sun, Wei; Zhang, Xiaorui; Peeta, Srinivas; He, Xiaozheng; Li, Yongfu; Zhu, Senlai

2015-01-01

To improve the effectiveness and robustness of fatigue driving recognition, a self-adaptive dynamic recognition model is proposed that incorporates information from multiple sources and involves two sequential levels of fusion, constructed at the feature level and the decision level. Compared with existing models, the proposed model introduces a dynamic basic probability assignment (BPA) to the decision-level fusion such that the weight of each feature source can change dynamically with the real-time fatigue feature measurements. Further, the proposed model can combine the fatigue state at the previous time step in the decision-level fusion to improve the robustness of the fatigue driving recognition. An improved correction strategy of the BPA is also proposed to accommodate the decision conflict caused by external disturbances. Results from field experiments demonstrate that the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed model are better than those of models based on a single fatigue feature and/or single-source information fusion, especially when the most effective fatigue features are used in the proposed model. PMID:26393615

The moderating effects of coping and self-esteem on the relationship between defeat, entrapment and suicidality in a sample of prisoners at high risk of suicide.

PubMed

Gooding, P; Tarrier, N; Dunn, G; Shaw, J; Awenat, Y; Ulph, F; Pratt, D

2015-11-01

Research is sparse which examines pathways to suicide, and resilience to suicide, in people who are particularly vulnerable to suicide, for example, prison inmates. The purpose of this study was to examine the ways in which perceptions of self-esteem and coping ability interacted with defeat and entrapment to both amplify suicidal thoughts and feelings, and to act as a buffer against suicidal thoughts and feelings. Participants were 65 male prisoners at high risk of suicide. A cross-sectional questionnaire design was used. Questionnaire measures of depression, defeat, entrapment, self-esteem, coping ability and suicidal probability were administered. For the hopelessness component of the suicide probability measure, high levels of coping ability together with low levels of defeat resulted in the lowest levels of suicidality indicative of a resilience factor. In contrast, low levels of coping skills together with high levels of entrapment were a high risk factor for this hopelessness component of suicide. This pattern of results pertained when controlling for depression levels. This is the first study to examine interactions between defeat, entrapment and appraisals of self-esteem and coping ability. Therapeutic interventions would benefit from boosting perceptions and appraisals of coping ability, in particular, in people who are at high risk for suicide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The moderating effects of coping and self-esteem on the relationship between defeat, entrapment and suicidality in a sample of prisoners at high risk of suicide

PubMed Central

Gooding, P.; Tarrier, N.; Dunn, G.; Shaw, J.; Awenat, Y.; Ulph, F.; Pratt, D.

2015-01-01

Background Research is sparse which examines pathways to suicide, and resilience to suicide, in people who are particularly vulnerable to suicide, for example, prison inmates. The purpose of this study was to examine the ways in which perceptions of self-esteem and coping ability interacted with defeat and entrapment to both amplify suicidal thoughts and feelings, and to act as a buffer against suicidal thoughts and feelings. Methods Participants were 65 male prisoners at high risk of suicide. A cross-sectional questionnaire design was used. Questionnaire measures of depression, defeat, entrapment, self-esteem, coping ability and suicidal probability were administered. Results For the hopelessness component of the suicide probability measure, high levels of coping ability together with low levels of defeat resulted in the lowest levels of suicidality indicative of a resilience factor. In contrast, low levels of coping skills together with high levels of entrapment were a high risk factor for this hopelessness component of suicide. This pattern of results pertained when controlling for depression levels. Conclusions This is the first study to examine interactions between defeat, entrapment and appraisals of self-esteem and coping ability. Therapeutic interventions would benefit from boosting perceptions and appraisals of coping ability, in particular, in people who are at high risk for suicide. PMID:26497469

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

PubMed

Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-04-01

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Protective effects of blueberries (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) extract against cadmium-induced hepatotoxicity in mice.

PubMed

Gong, Pin; Chen, Fu-xin; Wang, Lan; Wang, Jing; Jin, Sai; Ma, Yang-min

2014-05-01

The oxidative status and morphological changes of mouse liver exposed to cadmium chloride (Cd(II)) and therapeutic potential of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) extract against Cd(II)-induced hepatic injury were investigated. A variety of parameters were evaluated, including lipid peroxidation (LPO), protein carbonyl (PCO) level, DNA fragment, as well as antioxidative defense system (i.e., superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), reduced glutathione (GSH)). Elemental analysis and evaluation of morphological changes and NO levels were also performed. Exposure to Cd(II) led to increased LPO and PCO as well as DNA fragment and a reduction of SOD and CAT activities, however, the content of GSH elevated probably due to biological adaptive-response. In contrast, co-treatment of anthocyanin (Ay) inhibited the increased oxidative parameters as well as restored the activities of antioxidative defense system in a dose-dependent manner. Ay administration regained these morphological changes caused by intoxication of Cd(II) to nearly normal levels. Moreover, the accumulation of Cd(II) in liver may be one of the reasons for Cd(II) toxicity and Ay can chelate with Cd(II) to reduce Cd(II) burden. The influence of Cd(II) on the Zn and Ca levels can also be adjusted by the co-administration of Ay. Exposure to Cd(II) led to an increase of NO and Ay reduced NO contents probably by directly scavenging. Potential mechanisms for the protective effect of Ay have been proposed, including its anti-oxidative and anti-inflammatory effect along with the metal-chelating capacity. These results suggest that blueberry extract may be valuable as a therapeutic agent in combating Cd(II)-induced tissue injury. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A longitudinal evaluation of the effect of Medi-Cal managed care on supplemental security income and aid to families with dependent children enrollees in two California counties.

PubMed

Lo Sasso, A T; Freund, D A

2000-09-01

We examined the differential effect of Medicaid managed care (MMC) among Aid to Families With Dependent Children (AFDC) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) enrollees over time by comparing the experiences of adult nonelderly enrollees in the Health Plan of San Mateo in California versus Ventura County's fee-for-service (FFS) enrollees. Four years of administrative claims data were used to construct a longitudinal data set and estimate panel data models to decompose the effect of managed care over time. AFDC MMC enrollees exhibited generally fewer ambulatory visits, lower expenditures, and higher monthly probabilities of a preventable hospitalization relative to comparably enrolled FFS patients. SSI MMC enrollees had more emergency department visits and higher monthly probabilities of hospitalization. However, SSI MMC enrollees had more ambulatory visits and more medications during the first year of enrollment relative to SSI FFS enrollees, although levels were similar in subsequent years. SSI MMC enrollees did not exhibit a significantly higher level of expenditures in the first year of enrollment, although in subsequent years, expenditure levels were significantly lower. The results for emergency department visits and preventable hospitalizations presented a decidedly downbeat picture of access to care for AFDC and SSI enrollees in MMC. However, some aspects of utilization under managed care exhibited results consistent with long-term- oriented treatment for enrollees with a greater likelihood of remaining in the system for a longer period of time (SSI enrollees). By contrast, enrollees more likely to be enrolled for shorter periods (AFDC enrollees) tended to exhibit care patterns under MMC consistent with lower levels of care relative to FFS.

Effects of dietary aluminum, calcium, and phosphorus on egg and bone of European starlings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, A.K.; Grue, C.E.; Pendleton, G.W.; Soares, J.H.

1993-01-01

Egg and bone of passerine birds nesting in acidified habitats may be affected by high levels of Al or P, or low levels of Ca. Nine treatments of three levels of dietary Al (target levels of 200, 1,000, and 5,000 ?g/g) and three levels of Ca:P (target levels of NN = 1.3% Ca: 0.9% P; LL = 0.19 Ca:0.45 P; LH = 0.19 Ca:1.65 P) were fed to 16-17 starling pairs during two breeding seasons. Eggs of starlings fed the LH diet were smaller and weighed less than eggs from the NN and LL treatments. Treatment effects on thickness, strength, and weight of eggshells were not consistent between seasons, probably because of differences in actual dietary levels of AI, Ca, and P or in incubation intervals. In one season, birds fed the highest Al diet had thicker eggshells than those from the other Al treatments (no effect from Ca:P); the following season, eggshells from the NN and LH treatments were thicker and stronger than those from the LL treatment. Eggshells from the NN treatment weighed more than those from the other Ca:P treatments. Starlings on the LH diet had the strongest femurs, but the effect was interactive with different levels of dietary AI. Effects of Ca:P on egg and bone were more evident than Al effects.

An operational-oriented approach to the assessment of low probability seismic ground motions for critical infrastructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Fernandez, Mariano; Assatourians, Karen; Jimenez, Maria-Jose

2018-01-01

Extreme natural hazard events have the potential to cause significant disruption to critical infrastructure (CI) networks. Among them, earthquakes represent a major threat as sudden-onset events with limited, if any, capability of forecast, and high damage potential. In recent years, the increased exposure of interdependent systems has heightened concern, motivating the need for a framework for the management of these increased hazards. The seismic performance level and resilience of existing non-nuclear CIs can be analyzed by identifying the ground motion input values leading to failure of selected key elements. Main interest focuses on the ground motions exceeding the original design values, which should correspond to low probability occurrence. A seismic hazard methodology has been specifically developed to consider low-probability ground motions affecting elongated CI networks. The approach is based on Monte Carlo simulation, which allows for building long-duration synthetic earthquake catalogs to derive low-probability amplitudes. This approach does not affect the mean hazard values and allows obtaining a representation of maximum amplitudes that follow a general extreme-value distribution. This facilitates the analysis of the occurrence of extremes, i.e., very low probability of exceedance from unlikely combinations, for the development of, e.g., stress tests, among other applications. Following this methodology, extreme ground-motion scenarios have been developed for selected combinations of modeling inputs including seismic activity models (source model and magnitude-recurrence relationship), ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), hazard levels, and fractiles of extreme ground motion. The different results provide an overview of the effects of different hazard modeling inputs on the generated extreme motion hazard scenarios. This approach to seismic hazard is at the core of the risk analysis procedure developed and applied to European CI transport networks within the framework of the European-funded INFRARISK project. Such an operational seismic hazard framework can be used to provide insight in a timely manner to make informed risk management or regulating further decisions on the required level of detail or on the adoption of measures, the cost of which can be balanced against the benefits of the measures in question.

Water-level decline in the Apalachicola River, Florida, from 1954 to 2004, and effects on floodplain habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Light, Helen M.; Vincent, Kirk R.; Darst, Melanie R.; Price, Franklin D.

2006-01-01

From 1954 to 2004, water levels declined in the nontidal reach of the Apalachicola River, Florida, as a result of long-term changes in stage-discharge relations. Channel widening and deepening, which occurred throughout much of the river, apparently caused the declines. The period of most rapid channel enlargement began in 1954 and occurred primarily as a gradual erosional process over two to three decades, probably in response to the combined effect of a dam located at the head of the study reach (106 miles upstream from the mouth of the river), river straightening, dredging, and other activities along the river. Widespread recovery has not occurred, but channel conditions in the last decade (1995-2004) have been relatively stable. Future channel changes, if they occur, are expected to be minor. The magnitude and extent of water-level decline attributable to channel changes was determined by comparing pre-dam stage (prior to 1954) and recent stage (1995-2004) in relation to discharge. Long-term stage data for the pre-dam period and recent period from five streamflow gaging stations were related to discharge data from a single gage just downstream from the dam, by using a procedure involving streamflow lag times. The resulting pre-dam and recent stage-discharge relations at the gaging stations were used in combination with low-flow water-surface profile data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to estimate magnitude of water-level decline at closely spaced locations (every 0.1 mile) along the river. The largest water-level declines occurred at the lowest discharges and varied with location along the river. The largest water-level decline, 4.8 feet, which occurred when sediments were scoured from the streambed just downstream from the dam, has been generally known and described previously. This large decline progressively decreased downstream to a magnitude of 1 foot about 40 river miles downstream from the dam, which is the location that probably marks the downstream limit of the influence of the dam on bed scour. Downstream from that location, previously unreported water-level declines progressively increased to 3 feet at a location 68 miles downstream from the dam, probably as a result of various channel modifications conducted in that part of the river. Water-level declines in the river have substantially changed long-term hydrologic conditions in more than 200 miles of off-channel floodplain sloughs, streams, and lakes and in most of the 82,200 acres of floodplain forests in the nontidal reach of the Apalachicola River. Decreases in duration of floodplain inundation at low discharges were large in the upstream-most 10 miles of the river (20-45 percent) and throughout most of the remaining 75 miles of the nontidal reach (10-25 percent). As a consequence of this decreased inundation, the quantity and quality of floodplain habitats for fish, mussels, and other aquatic organisms have declined, and wetland forests of the floodplain are changing in response to drier conditions. Water-level decline caused by channel change is probably the most serious anthropogenic impact that has occurred so far in the Apalachicola River and floodplain. This decline has been exacerbated by long-term reductions in spring and summer flow, especially during drought periods. Although no trends in total annual flow volumes were detected, long-term decreases in discharge for April, May, July, and August were apparent, and water-level declines during drought conditions resulting from decreased discharge in those 4 months were similar in magnitude to the water-level declines caused by channel changes. The observed changes in seasonal discharge are probably caused by a combination of natural climatic changes and anthropogenic activities in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin. Continued research is needed for geomorphic studies to assist in the design of future floodplain restoration efforts and for hydrologic studies to monitor change

Investigation of the Microstructure Evolution in a Fe-17Mn-1.5Al-0.3C Steel via In Situ Synchrotron X-ray Diffraction during a Tensile Test.

PubMed

Ma, Yan; Song, Wenwen; Bleck, Wolfgang

2017-09-25

The quantitative characterization of the microstructure evolution in high-Mn steel during deformation is of great importance to understanding its strain-hardening behavior. In the current study, in situ high-energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction was employed to characterize the microstructure evolution in a Fe-17Mn-1.5Al-0.3C steel during a tensile test. The microstructure at different engineering strain levels-in terms of ε-martensite and α'-martensite volume fractions, the stacking fault probability, and the twin fault probability-was analyzed by the Rietveld refinement method. The Fe-17Mn-1.5Al-0.3C steel exhibits a high ultimate tensile strength with a superior uniform elongation and a high strain-hardening rate. The remaining high strain-hardening rate at the strain level about 0.025 to 0.35 results from ε-martensite dominant transformation-induced-plasticity (TRIP) effect. The increase in the strain-hardening rate at the strain level around 0.35 to 0.43 is attributed to the synergetic α'-martensite dominant TRIP and twinning-induced-plasticity (TWIP) effects. An evaluation of the stacking fault energy (SFE) of the Fe-17Mn-1.5Al-0.3C steel by the synchrotron measurements shows good agreement with the thermodynamic calculation of the SFE.

Effect of nearest-neighbor ions on excited ionic states, emission spectra, and line profiles in hot and dense plasmas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salzmann, D.; Stein, J.; Goldberg, I. B.; Pratt, R. H.

1991-01-01

The effect of the cylindrical symmetry imposed by the nearest-neighbor ions on the ionic levels and the emission spectra of a Li-like Kr ion immersed in hot and dense plasmas is investigated using the Stein et al. (1989) two-centered model extended to include computations of the line profiles, shifts, and widths, as well as the energy-level mixing and the forbidden transition probabilities. It is shown that the cylindrical symmetry mixes states with different orbital quantum numbers l, particularly for highly excited states, and, thereby, gives rise to forbidden transitions in the emission spectrum. Results are obtained for the variation of the ionic level shifts and mixing coefficients with the distance to the nearest neighbor. Also obtained are representative computed spectra that show the density effects on the spectral line profiles, shifts, and widths, and the forbidden components in the spectrum.

Association of N-cadherin levels and downstream effectors of Rho GTPases with dendritic spine loss induced by chronic stress in rat hippocampal neurons.

PubMed

Castañeda, Patricia; Muñoz, Mauricio; García-Rojo, Gonzalo; Ulloa, José L; Bravo, Javier A; Márquez, Ruth; García-Pérez, M Alexandra; Arancibia, Damaris; Araneda, Karina; Rojas, Paulina S; Mondaca-Ruff, David; Díaz-Véliz, Gabriela; Mora, Sergio; Aliaga, Esteban; Fiedler, Jenny L

2015-10-01

Chronic stress promotes cognitive impairment and dendritic spine loss in hippocampal neurons. In this animal model of depression, spine loss probably involves a weakening of the interaction between pre- and postsynaptic cell adhesion molecules, such as N-cadherin, followed by disruption of the cytoskeleton. N-cadherin, in concert with catenin, stabilizes the cytoskeleton through Rho-family GTPases. Via their effector LIM kinase (LIMK), RhoA and ras-related C3 botulinum toxin substrate 1 (RAC) GTPases phosphorylate and inhibit cofilin, an actin-depolymerizing molecule, favoring spine growth. Additionally, RhoA, through Rho kinase (ROCK), inactivates myosin phosphatase through phosphorylation of the myosin-binding subunit (MYPT1), producing actomyosin contraction and probable spine loss. Some micro-RNAs negatively control the translation of specific mRNAs involved in Rho GTPase signaling. For example, miR-138 indirectly activates RhoA, and miR-134 reduces LIMK1 levels, resulting in spine shrinkage; in contrast, miR-132 activates RAC1, promoting spine formation. We evaluated whether N-cadherin/β-catenin and Rho signaling is sensitive to chronic restraint stress. Stressed rats exhibit anhedonia, impaired associative learning, and immobility in the forced swim test and reduction in N-cadherin levels but not β-catenin in the hippocampus. We observed a reduction in spine number in the apical dendrites of CA1 pyramidal neurons, with no effect on the levels of miR-132 or miR-134. Although the stress did not modify the RAC-LIMK-cofilin signaling pathway, we observed increased phospho-MYPT1 levels, probably mediated by RhoA-ROCK activation. Furthermore, chronic stress raises the levels of miR-138 in accordance with the observed activation of the RhoA-ROCK pathway. Our findings suggest that a dysregulation of RhoA-ROCK activity by chronic stress could potentially underlie spine loss in hippocampal neurons. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Rapid extraction of image texture by co-occurrence using a hybrid data structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clausi, David A.; Zhao, Yongping

2002-07-01

Calculation of co-occurrence probabilities is a popular method for determining texture features within remotely sensed digital imagery. Typically, the co-occurrence features are calculated by using a grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) to store the co-occurring probabilities. Statistics are applied to the probabilities in the GLCM to generate the texture features. This method is computationally intensive since the matrix is usually sparse leading to many unnecessary calculations involving zero probabilities when applying the statistics. An improvement on the GLCM method is to utilize a grey level co-occurrence linked list (GLCLL) to store only the non-zero co-occurring probabilities. The GLCLL suffers since, to achieve preferred computational speeds, the list should be sorted. An improvement on the GLCLL is to utilize a grey level co-occurrence hybrid structure (GLCHS) based on an integrated hash table and linked list approach. Texture features obtained using this technique are identical to those obtained using the GLCM and GLCLL. The GLCHS method is implemented using the C language in a Unix environment. Based on a Brodatz test image, the GLCHS method is demonstrated to be a superior technique when compared across various window sizes and grey level quantizations. The GLCHS method required, on average, 33.4% ( σ=3.08%) of the computational time required by the GLCLL. Significant computational gains are made using the GLCHS method.

Ensemble learning and model averaging for material identification in hyperspectral imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basener, William F.

2017-05-01

In this paper we present a method for identifying the material contained in a pixel or region of pixels in a hyperspectral image. An identification process can be performed on a spectrum from an image from pixels that has been pre-determined to be of interest, generally comparing the spectrum from the image to spectra in an identification library. The metric for comparison used in this paper a Bayesian probability for each material. This probability can be computed either from Bayes' theorem applied to normal distributions for each library spectrum or using model averaging. Using probabilities has the advantage that the probabilities can be summed over spectra for any material class to obtain a class probability. For example, the probability that the spectrum of interest is a fabric is equal to the sum of all probabilities for fabric spectra in the library. We can do the same to determine the probability for a specific type of fabric, or any level of specificity contained in our library. Probabilities not only tell us which material is most likely, the tell us how confident we can be in the material presence; a probability close to 1 indicates near certainty of the presence of a material in the given class, and a probability close to 0.5 indicates that we cannot know if the material is present at the given level of specificity. This is much more informative than a detection score from a target detection algorithm or a label from a classification algorithm. In this paper we present results in the form of a hierarchical tree with probabilities for each node. We use Forest Radiance imagery with 159 bands.

A New Method for Generating Probability Tables in the Unresolved Resonance Region

DOE PAGES

Holcomb, Andrew M.; Leal, Luiz C.; Rahnema, Farzad; ...

2017-04-18

One new method for constructing probability tables in the unresolved resonance region (URR) has been developed. This new methodology is an extensive modification of the single-level Breit-Wigner (SLBW) pseudo-resonance pair sequence method commonly used to generate probability tables in the URR. The new method uses a Monte Carlo process to generate many pseudo-resonance sequences by first sampling the average resonance parameter data in the URR and then converting the sampled resonance parameters to the more robust R-matrix limited (RML) format. Furthermore, for each sampled set of pseudo-resonance sequences, the temperature-dependent cross sections are reconstructed on a small grid around themore » energy of reference using the Reich-Moore formalism and the Leal-Hwang Doppler broadening methodology. We then use the effective cross sections calculated at the energies of reference to construct probability tables in the URR. The RML cross-section reconstruction algorithm has been rigorously tested for a variety of isotopes, including 16O, 19F, 35Cl, 56Fe, 63Cu, and 65Cu. The new URR method also produced normalized cross-section factor probability tables for 238U that were found to be in agreement with current standards. The modified 238U probability tables were shown to produce results in excellent agreement with several standard benchmarks, including the IEU-MET-FAST-007 (BIG TEN), IEU-MET-FAST-003, and IEU-COMP-FAST-004 benchmarks.« less

Sampling little fish in big rivers: Larval fish detection probabilities in two Lake Erie tributaries and implications for sampling effort and abundance indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pritt, Jeremy J.; DuFour, Mark R.; Mayer, Christine M.; Roseman, Edward F.; DeBruyne, Robin L.

2014-01-01

Larval fish are frequently sampled in coastal tributaries to determine factors affecting recruitment, evaluate spawning success, and estimate production from spawning habitats. Imperfect detection of larvae is common, because larval fish are small and unevenly distributed in space and time, and coastal tributaries are often large and heterogeneous. We estimated detection probabilities of larval fish from several taxa in the Maumee and Detroit rivers, the two largest tributaries of Lake Erie. We then demonstrated how accounting for imperfect detection influenced (1) the probability of observing taxa as present relative to sampling effort and (2) abundance indices for larval fish of two Detroit River species. We found that detection probabilities ranged from 0.09 to 0.91 but were always less than 1.0, indicating that imperfect detection is common among taxa and between systems. In general, taxa with high fecundities, small larval length at hatching, and no nesting behaviors had the highest detection probabilities. Also, detection probabilities were higher in the Maumee River than in the Detroit River. Accounting for imperfect detection produced up to fourfold increases in abundance indices for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum. The effect of accounting for imperfect detection in abundance indices was greatest during periods of low abundance for both species. Detection information can be used to determine the appropriate level of sampling effort for larval fishes and may improve management and conservation decisions based on larval fish data.

Optimization of armored spherical tanks for storage on the lunar surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bents, D. J.; Knight, D. A.

1992-01-01

A redundancy strategy for reducing micrometeroid armoring mass is investigated, with application to cryogenic reactant storage for a regenerative fuel cell (RFC) on the lunar surface. In that micrometeoroid environment, the cryogenic fuel must be protected from loss due to tank puncture. The tankage must have a sufficiently high probability of survival over the length of the mission so that the probability of system failure due to tank puncture is low compared to the other mission risk factors. Assuming that a single meteoroid penetration can cause a storage tank to lose its contents, two means are available to raise the probability of surviving micrometeoroid attack to the desired level. One can armor the tanks to a thickness sufficient to reduce probability of penetration of any tank to the desired level or add extra capacity in the form of space tanks that results in survival of a given number out of the ensemble at the desired level. A combination of these strategies (armor and redundancy) is investigated.

Cost effectiveness of a pharmacist-led information technology intervention for reducing rates of clinically important errors in medicines management in general practices (PINCER).

PubMed

Elliott, Rachel A; Putman, Koen D; Franklin, Matthew; Annemans, Lieven; Verhaeghe, Nick; Eden, Martin; Hayre, Jasdeep; Rodgers, Sarah; Sheikh, Aziz; Avery, Anthony J

2014-06-01

We recently showed that a pharmacist-led information technology-based intervention (PINCER) was significantly more effective in reducing medication errors in general practices than providing simple feedback on errors, with cost per error avoided at £79 (US$131). We aimed to estimate cost effectiveness of the PINCER intervention by combining effectiveness in error reduction and intervention costs with the effect of the individual errors on patient outcomes and healthcare costs, to estimate the effect on costs and QALYs. We developed Markov models for each of six medication errors targeted by PINCER. Clinical event probability, treatment pathway, resource use and costs were extracted from literature and costing tariffs. A composite probabilistic model combined patient-level error models with practice-level error rates and intervention costs from the trial. Cost per extra QALY and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were generated from the perspective of NHS England, with a 5-year time horizon. The PINCER intervention generated £2,679 less cost and 0.81 more QALYs per practice [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER): -£3,037 per QALY] in the deterministic analysis. In the probabilistic analysis, PINCER generated 0.001 extra QALYs per practice compared with simple feedback, at £4.20 less per practice. Despite this extremely small set of differences in costs and outcomes, PINCER dominated simple feedback with a mean ICER of -£3,936 (standard error £2,970). At a ceiling 'willingness-to-pay' of £20,000/QALY, PINCER reaches 59 % probability of being cost effective. PINCER produced marginal health gain at slightly reduced overall cost. Results are uncertain due to the poor quality of data to inform the effect of avoiding errors.

Negative serum carcinoembryonic antigen has insufficient accuracy for excluding recurrence from patients with Dukes C colorectal cancer: analysis with likelihood ratio and posttest probability in a follow-up study.

PubMed

Hara, Masayasu; Kanemitsu, Yukihide; Hirai, Takashi; Komori, Koji; Kato, Tomoyuki

2008-11-01

This study was designed to determine the efficacy of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) monitoring for screening patients with colorectal cancer by using posttest probability of recurrence. For this study, 348 (preoperative serum CEA level elevated: CEA+, n = 119; or normal: CEA-, n = 229) patients who had undergone potentially curative surgery for colorectal cancer were enrolled. After five-year follow-up with measurements of serum CEA levels and imaging workup, posttest probabilities of recurrence were calculated. Recurrence was observed in 39 percent of CEA+ patients and 30 percent in CEA- patients, and CEA levels were elevated in 33.3 percent of CEA+ patients and 17.5 percent of CEA- patients. With obtained sensitivity (68.4 percent, CEA+; 41 percent, CEA-), specificity (83 percent, CEA+; 91 percent, CEA-) and likelihood ratio (test positive: 4.0, CEA+; 4.4, CEA-; and test negative: 0.38, CEA+; 0.66, CEA-), posttest probability given the presence of CEA elevation in the CEA+ and CEA- was 72.2 and 65.5 percent, respectively, and that given the absence of CEA elevation was 20 and 22.2 percent, respectively. Whereas postoperative CEA elevation indicates recurrence with high probability, a normal postoperative CEA is not useful for excluding the probability of recurrence.

Measurement of lipocalin-2 and syndecan-4 levels to differentiate bacterial from viral infection in children with community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Esposito, Susanna; Bianchini, Sonia; Gambino, Monia; Madini, Barbara; Di Pietro, Giada; Umbrello, Giulia; Presicce, Maria Lory; Ruggiero, Luca; Terranova, Leonardo; Principi, Nicola

2016-07-20

In this study, we evaluated the lipocalin-2 (LIP2) and syndecan-4 (SYN4) levels in children who were hospitalized for radiologically confirmed CAP in order to differentiate bacterial from viral infection. The results regarding the LIP2 and SYN4 diagnostic outcomes were compared with the white blood cell (WBC) count and C reactive protein (CRP) levels. A total of 110 children <14 years old who were hospitalized for radiologically confirmed CAP were enrolled. Serum samples were obtained upon admission and on day 5 to measure the levels of LIP2, SYN4, and CRP as well as the WBC. Polymerase chain reaction of the respiratory secretions and tests on blood samples were performed to detect respiratory viruses, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Mycoplasma pneumoniae. CAP was considered to be due to a probable bacterial infection in 74 children (67.3 %) and due to a probable viral infection in 16 children (14.5 %). Overall, 84 children (76.4 %) were diagnosed with severe CAP. The mean values of the WBC count and the LIP2 and SYN4 levels did not differ among the probable bacterial, probable viral, and undetermined cases. However, the CRP serum concentrations were significantly higher in children with probable bacterial CAP than in those with probable viral disease (32.2 ± 55.5 mg/L vs 9.4 ± 17.0 mg/L, p < 0.05). The WBC count was the best predictor of severe CAP, but the differences among the studied variables were marginal. The WBC count was significantly lower on day 5 in children with probable bacterial CAP (p < 0.01) and in those with an undetermined etiology (p < 0.01). The CRP and LIP2 levels were significantly lower 5 days after enrollment in all of the studied groups, independent of the supposed etiology of CAP (p < 0.01 for all comparisons). No statistically significant variation was observed for SYN4. Measuring the LIP2 and SYN4 levels does not appear to solve the problem of the poor reliability of routine laboratory tests in defining the etiology and severity of pediatric CAP. Currently, the CRP levels and WBC, when combined with evaluation of clinical data, can be used to limit the overuse of antibiotics as much as possible and to provide the best treatment to the patient.

Trial type probability modulates the cost of antisaccades

PubMed Central

Chiau, Hui-Yan; Tseng, Philip; Su, Jia-Han; Tzeng, Ovid J. L.; Hung, Daisy L.; Muggleton, Neil G.

2011-01-01

The antisaccade task, where eye movements are made away from a target, has been used to investigate the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. Antisaccades usually have longer saccade latencies than prosaccades, the so-called antisaccade cost. Recent studies have shown that this antisaccade cost can be modulated by event probability. This may mean that the antisaccade cost can be reduced, or even reversed, if the probability of surrounding events favors the execution of antisaccades. The probabilities of prosaccades and antisaccades were systematically manipulated by changing the proportion of a certain type of trial in an interleaved pro/antisaccades task. We aimed to disentangle the intertwined relationship between trial type probabilities and the antisaccade cost with the ultimate goal of elucidating how probabilities of trial types modulate human flexible behaviors, as well as the characteristics of such modulation effects. To this end, we examined whether implicit trial type probability can influence saccade latencies and also manipulated the difficulty of cue discriminability to see how effects of trial type probability would change when the demand on visual perceptual analysis was high or low. A mixed-effects model was applied to the analysis to dissect the factors contributing to the modulation effects of trial type probabilities. Our results suggest that the trial type probability is one robust determinant of antisaccade cost. These findings highlight the importance of implicit probability in the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. PMID:21543748

Critically Evaluated Energy Levels, Spectral Lines, Transition Probabilities, and Intensities of Singly Ionized Vanadium (V II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saloman, Edward B.; Kramida, Alexander

2017-08-01

The energy levels, observed spectral lines, and transition probabilities of singly ionized vanadium, V II, have been compiled. The experimentally derived energy levels belong to the configurations 3d 4, 3d 3 ns (n = 4, 5, 6), 3d 3 np, and 3d 3 nd (n = 4, 5), 3d 34f, 3d 24s 2, and 3d 24s4p. Also included are values for some forbidden lines that may be of interest to the astrophysical community. Experimental Landé g-factors and leading percentages for the levels are included when available, as well as Ritz wavelengths calculated from the energy levels. Wavelengths and transition probabilities are reported for 3568 and 1896 transitions, respectively. From the list of observed wavelengths, 407 energy levels are determined. The observed intensities, normalized to a common scale, are provided. From the newly optimized energy levels, a revised value for the ionization energy is derived, 118,030(60) cm-1, corresponding to 14.634(7) eV. This is 130 cm-1 higher than the previously recommended value from Iglesias et al.

Frequency synchronization of a frequency-hopped MFSK communication system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huth, G. K.; Polydoros, A.; Simon, M. K.

1981-01-01

This paper presents the performance of fine-frequency synchronization. The performance degradation due to imperfect frequency synchronization is found in terms of the effect on bit error probability as a function of full-band or partial-band noise jamming levels and of the number of frequency hops used in the estimator. The effect of imperfect fine-time synchronization is also included in the calculation of fine-frequency synchronization performance to obtain the overall performance degradation due to synchronization errors.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thurman, J.

Can operating companies cost-effectively manage environmental risks, meet compliance requirements and attain financial and market-oriented goals? Yes, if top management fully supports incorporating environmental-risk issues into the corporate management system. Using evaluation tools such as risk assessment and environmental audits, operators can fully define their environment condition and risk level. Working these results, HPI companies can take action to reduce the probability of environmental accidents and mitigate adverse event effects. Adopting this top-down, proactive outlook, organizations can evade environmental catastrophes, avoid negative public image and prevent ruined reputations.

Does Iconicity in Pictographs Matter? The Influence of Iconicity and Numeracy on Information Processing, Decision Making, and Liking in an Eye-Tracking Study.

PubMed

Kreuzmair, Christina; Siegrist, Michael; Keller, Carmen

2017-03-01

Researchers recommend the use of pictographs in medical risk communication to improve people's risk comprehension and decision making. However, it is not yet clear whether the iconicity used in pictographs to convey risk information influences individuals' information processing and comprehension. In an eye-tracking experiment with participants from the general population (N = 188), we examined whether specific types of pictograph icons influence the processing strategy viewers use to extract numerical information. In addition, we examined the effect of iconicity and numeracy on probability estimation, recall, and icon liking. This experiment used a 2 (iconicity: blocks vs. restroom icons) × 2 (scenario: medical vs. nonmedical) between-subject design. Numeracy had a significant effect on information processing strategy, but we found no effect of iconicity or scenario. Results indicated that both icon types enabled high and low numerates to use their default way of processing and extracting the gist of the message from the pictorial risk communication format: high numerates counted icons, whereas low numerates used large-area processing. There was no effect of iconicity in the probability estimation. However, people who saw restroom icons had a higher probability of correctly recalling the exact risk level. Iconicity had no effect on icon liking. Although the effects are small, our findings suggest that person-like restroom icons in pictographs seem to have some advantages for risk communication. Specifically, in nonpersonalized prevention brochures, person-like restroom icons may maintain reader motivation for processing the risk information. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Inverse probability weighting in STI/HIV prevention research: methods for evaluating social and community interventions

PubMed Central

Lippman, Sheri A.; Shade, Starley B.; Hubbard, Alan E.

2011-01-01

Background Intervention effects estimated from non-randomized intervention studies are plagued by biases, yet social or structural intervention studies are rarely randomized. There are underutilized statistical methods available to mitigate biases due to self-selection, missing data, and confounding in longitudinal, observational data permitting estimation of causal effects. We demonstrate the use of Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) to evaluate the effect of participating in a combined clinical and social STI/HIV prevention intervention on reduction of incident chlamydia and gonorrhea infections among sex workers in Brazil. Methods We demonstrate the step-by-step use of IPW, including presentation of the theoretical background, data set up, model selection for weighting, application of weights, estimation of effects using varied modeling procedures, and discussion of assumptions for use of IPW. Results 420 sex workers contributed data on 840 incident chlamydia and gonorrhea infections. Participators were compared to non-participators following application of inverse probability weights to correct for differences in covariate patterns between exposed and unexposed participants and between those who remained in the intervention and those who were lost-to-follow-up. Estimators using four model selection procedures provided estimates of intervention effect between odds ratio (OR) .43 (95% CI:.22-.85) and .53 (95% CI:.26-1.1). Conclusions After correcting for selection bias, loss-to-follow-up, and confounding, our analysis suggests a protective effect of participating in the Encontros intervention. Evaluations of behavioral, social, and multi-level interventions to prevent STI can benefit by introduction of weighting methods such as IPW. PMID:20375927

Estimating the Effectiveness of Imidacloprid When Used to Suppress Transmission of Tomato spotted wilt orthotospovirus in Commercial Agriculture.

PubMed

Chappell, Thomas M; Kennedy, George G

2018-06-21

Imidacloprid is widely used to manage tomato spotted wilt disease (TSW) in tobacco, tomato, and pepper, caused by Tomato spotted wilt orthotospovirus (TSWV) and spread by the tobacco thrips, Frankliniella fusca Hinds (Thysanoptera: Thripidae). Imidacloprid suppresses transmission of TSWV by reducing probing and feeding by adult thrips on treated plants, thereby reducing the probability of transmission by infectious thrips. Because imidacloprid does not reduce probing and feeding on treated plants to zero, the reduction in transmission probability per viruliferous thrips can be offset by an increase in the number of viruliferous thrips challenging treated plants. A composite of these effects which we call 'pathogen pressure' experienced by plants is a function of thrips population size, the proportion of those thrips that are viruliferous, and the probability that viruliferous thrips successfully inoculate plants. To better understand the relationship between imidacloprid's effect on virus transmission, pathogen pressure, and TSW incidence in tobacco, we modeled TSW incidence as a function of the two most important variables affecting components of pathogen pressure, temperature, and precipitation, and the dependence of imidacloprid's effect on pathogen pressure. A model incorporating imidacloprid's effect as a reduction in pathogen pressure was found to be more descriptive than models incorporating the effect as a reduction in TSW incidence. Results reveal maximum proportional reduction in TSW incidence resulting from imidacloprid use is associated with minimal potential TSW incidence. As pathogen pressure increases, potential TSW incidence approaches 100%, and the benefits of imidacloprid use are highest at intermediate levels of pathogen pressure.

Hepatoprotective effect of fucoidan isolated from the seaweed Turbinaria decurrens in ethanol intoxicated rats.

PubMed

Meenakshi, Selvaraju; Umayaparvathi, Shanmugam; Saravanan, Ravichandran; Manivasagam, Tamilarasan; Balasubramanian, Thangavel

2014-06-01

Fucoidan is the sulfated polysaccharide which is present in the cell wall of the brown seaweeds with high nutritive value. It is widely known for its pharmacological activity and hence it is added as a main ingredient in the food supplements. A water soluble crude polysaccharide was extracted from Turbinaria decurrens. Ethanol has been used as a hepatotoxin in vivo and its administration increased oxidative stress, decreased antioxidant defence and liver injury. Fucoidan treatment increased the body weight, food intake and serum protein levels, it decreases the level of hepatic markers. Fucoidan improved the antioxidant status of alcoholic rats, which is evaluated by the decreased levels of lipid peroxidation markers and increased level of enzymatic antioxidants were observed in liver. Histopathological observations and protein expression were also in correlation with the biochemical parameters. The hepatoprotective effect of fucoidan is probably due to its antioxidant effect. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computed Tomography Angiography in Patients Evaluated for Acute Pulmonary Embolism with Low Serum D-dimer Levels: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Gimber, Lana Hirai; Travis, R Ing; Takahashi, Jayme M; Goodman, Torrey L; Yoon, Hyo-Chun

2009-01-01

Pulmonary computed tomography angiography (CTA) and the Wells criteria both have interobserver variability in the assessment of pulmonary embolism (PE). Quantitative D-dimer assay findings have been shown to have a high negative predictive value in patients with low pretest probability of PE. Evaluate roles for clinical probability and CTA in Emergency Department (ED) patients suspected of acute PE but having a low serum D-dimer level. Prospective observational study of ED patients with possible PE who underwent pulmonary CTA and had D-dimer levels

An explanation of resisted discoveries based on construal-level theory.

PubMed

Fang, Hui

2015-02-01

New discoveries and theories are crucial for the development of science, but they are often initially resisted by the scientific community. This paper analyses resistance to scientific discoveries that supplement previous research results or conclusions with new phenomena, such as long chains in macromolecules, Alfvén waves, parity nonconservation in weak interactions and quasicrystals. Construal-level theory is used to explain that the probability of new discoveries may be underestimated because of psychological distance. Thus, the insufficiently examined scope of an accepted theory may lead to overstating the suitable scope and underestimating the probability of its undiscovered counter-examples. Therefore, psychological activity can result in people instinctively resisting new discoveries. Direct evidence can help people judge the validity of a hypothesis with rational thinking. The effects of authorities and textbooks on the resistance to discoveries are also discussed. From the results of our analysis, suggestions are provided to reduce resistance to real discoveries, which will benefit the development of science.

Transition probability of the Si III 189.2-nm intersystem line

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwong, H. S.; Johnson, B. C.; Smith, P. L.; Parkinson, W. H.

1983-01-01

Measurement of the lifetime of the metastable 3s3p(3)P(0)1 level of Si(2+) (Si III), which decays by photon emission at 189.2 nm to the 3s2(1)S0 state, is reported. The data were taken from spontaneous emission from metastable Si III stored in an RF ion trap. The Si III ions were produced through electron bombardment of SiH4 and SiF4 at pressures of 1/100,000,000-1/10,000,000 Torr. A photomultiplier was employed to count the photon emissions from the transitions. A total of 11 decay curves were generated for analysis, with Poisson statistics used to set the uncertainties at within 8 pct. Significant systematic effects were controlled, and the lifetime was found to be within 3.6 microsec of 59.9 microsec. The method used is concluded valid for determining the lifetimes of metastable levels of low-Z ions with low charge, and thereby the transition probabilities.

Environmental implications of coal development: an interdisciplinary research team approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barker, W.T.; Brun, L.; Enz, J.

In May, 1974 a team of researchers from North Dakota State University launched a project aimed at investigating The Implications of Coal Development on the Atmospheric Environment and Plant Ecosystems of Selected Sites in Western North Dakota. It was an interdisciplinary effort of four basic study areas, namely: Soils, Climatology, Engineering, and Botany. Support was provided by the US Forest Service, USDA, under a Surface Environment and Mining (SEAM) cooperative agreement with the North Dakota Agricultural Experiment Station. The investigations, which lasted 4-1/2 years, were designed to accomplish three primary objectives. First was to analyze the frequency, intensity, and durationmore » of low-level radiation inversions in western North Dakota. The second was to determine the probable dispersion of wastes to the atmosphere from various theoretical operational levels and types of coal development in the specified area. Lastly was evaluation of the effects of probable changes in air quality on the plant ecosystems in the area.« less

The Effect of Isotopic Substitution on Quantum Proton Transfer Across Short Water Bridges in Biological Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blazejewski, Jacob; Schultz, Chase; Mazzuca, James

2015-03-01

Many biological systems utilize water chains to transfer charge over long distances by means of an excess proton. This study examines how quantum effects impact these reactions in a small model system. The model consists of a water molecule situated between an imidazole donor and acceptor group, which simulate a fixed amino acid backbone. A one dimensional energy profile is evaluated using density functional theory at the 6-31G*/B3LYP level, which generates a barrier with a width of 0.6 Å and a height of 20.7 kcal/mol. Quantum transmission probability is evaluated by solving the time dependent Schrödinger equation on a grid. Isotopic effects are examined by performing calculations with both hydrogen and deuterium. The ratio of hydrogen over the deuterium shows a 130-fold increase in transmission probability at low temperatures. This indicates a substantial quantum tunneling effect. The study of higher dimensional systems as well as increasing the number of water molecules in the chain will be necessary to fully describe the proton transfer process. Alma College Provost's Office.

Use of probability analysis to establish routine bioassay screening levels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carbaugh, E.H.; Sula, M.J.; McFadden, K.M.

1990-09-01

Probability analysis was used by the Hanford Internal Dosimetry Program to establish bioassay screening levels for tritium and uranium in urine. Background environmental levels of these two radionuclides are generally detectable by the highly sensitive urine analysis procedures routinely used at Hanford. Establishing screening levels requires balancing the impact of false detection with the consequence of potentially undetectable occupation dose. To establish the screening levels, tritium and uranium analyses were performed on urine samples collected from workers exposed only to environmental sources. All samples were collected at home using a simulated 12-hour protocol for tritium and a simulated 24-hour collectionmore » protocol for uranium. Results of the analyses of these samples were ranked according to tritium concentration or total sample uranium. The cumulative percentile was calculated and plotted using log-probability coordinates. Geometric means and screening levels corresponding to various percentiles were estimated by graphical interpolation and standard calculations. The potentially annual internal dose associated with a screening level was calculated. Screening levels were selected corresponding to the 99.9 percentile, implying that, on the average, 1 out of 1000 samples collected from an unexposed worker population would be expected to exceed the screening level. 4 refs., 2 figs.« less

Breit–Pauli atomic structure calculations for Fe XI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aggarwal, Sunny, E-mail: sunny.du87@gmail.com; Singh, Jagjit; Mohan, Man

Energy levels, oscillator strengths, and transition probabilities are calculated for the lowest-lying 165 energy levels of Fe XI using configuration-interaction wavefunctions. The calculations include all the major correlation effects. Relativistic effects are included in the Breit–Pauli approximation by adding mass-correction, Darwin, and spin–orbit interaction terms to the non-relativistic Hamiltonian. For comparison with the calculated ab initio energy levels, we have also calculated the energy levels by using the fully relativistic multiconfiguration Dirac–Fock method. The calculated results are in close agreement with the National Institute of Standards and Technology compilation and other available results. New results are predicted for many ofmore » the levels belonging to the 3s3p{sup 4}3d and 3s3p{sup 3}3d{sup 2} configurations, which are very important in astrophysics, relevant, for example, to the recent observations by the Hinode spacecraft. We expect that our extensive calculations will be useful to experimentalists in identifying the fine structure levels in their future work.« less

Stimulus Probability Effects in Absolute Identification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

2016-01-01

This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of…

A method for the compensation of the effects of surface cloth impressions on polar backscatter applied to porous epoxy and biaxial graphite/epoxy composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madaras, Eric I.; Bridal, S. L.; Holland, Mark R.; Handley, Scott M.; Miller, James G.

1993-01-01

The anisotropy of polar backscatter from graphite/epoxy composites is a potentially useful parameter for the characterization of porosity levels. However, the effects of release-cloth impressions on measured integrated polar backscatter levels are sufficient to inhibit the detection of porosity with this method. Recently, we developed a theoretical model to predict the frequency distribution of the backscattered power along the high-symmetry directions of release-cloth impressions. This study investigates experimentally the usefulness of limiting the bandwidth to regions not dominated by the scattering from the surface impressions, hence increasing the probability of detecting flaws such as porosity.

Association of physical activity and sedentary behavior with depression and anxiety symptoms during pregnancy in a multiethnic cohort of Asian women.

PubMed

Padmapriya, Natarajan; Bernard, Jonathan Y; Liang, Shen; Loy, See Ling; Shen, Zhe; Kwek, Kenneth; Godfrey, Keith M; Gluckman, Peter D; Chong, Yap-Seng; Saw, Seang Mei; Meaney, Michael J; Chen, Helen; Müller-Riemenschneider, Falk

2016-12-01

This study aimed to investigate associations of physical activity (PA) and sedentary behavior (SB) with depression and anxiety symptoms during pregnancy among Chinese, Malay, and Indian women. Women answered PA and SB (sitting time and television time) interview questions and self-completed the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) questionnaires, at week 26-28 gestation. Sufficient levels of PA (≥600MET-minutes/week) and higher sitting time (≥7 h/day) were determined. Associations of PA and SB with probable antenatal depression (EPDS-score ≥15), higher state anxiety (score ≥42), and higher trait anxiety (score ≥43) were determined by logistic regression analysis. Among the 1144 pregnant women included in the study, 7.3, 22.5, and 23.6 % had probable antenatal depression, higher state anxiety, and higher trait anxiety symptoms, respectively. In the adjusted models, women with sufficient level of PA were less likely to have probable antenatal depression (OR 0.54, 95 % CI 0.31-0.94, p = 0.030) and higher trait anxiety symptoms (OR 0.68, 95 % CI 0.48-0.94, p = 0.022). PA was not associated with state anxiety symptoms. SB was not associated with any of the investigated outcomes. Sufficient PA was associated with a reduced likelihood of probable antenatal depression and trait anxiety symptoms. Further investigation of these findings is warranted to determine cause-effect relationships and identify potential preventive strategies.

Application of spatial Markov chains to the analysis of the temporal-spatial evolution of soil erosion.

PubMed

Liu, Ruimin; Men, Cong; Wang, Xiujuan; Xu, Fei; Yu, Wenwen

Soil and water conservation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China is important, and soil erosion is a significant issue. In the present study, spatial Markov chains were applied to explore the impacts of the regional context on soil erosion in the Xiangxi River watershed, and Thematic Mapper remote sensing data from 1999 and 2007 were employed. The results indicated that the observed changes in soil erosion were closely related to the soil erosion levels of the surrounding areas. When neighboring regions were not considered, the probability that moderate erosion transformed into slight and severe erosion was 0.8330 and 0.0049, respectively. However, when neighboring regions that displayed intensive erosion were considered, the probabilities were 0.2454 and 0.7513, respectively. Moreover, the different levels of soil erosion in neighboring regions played different roles in soil erosion. If the erosion levels in the neighboring region were lower, the probability of a high erosion class transferring to a lower level was relatively high. In contrast, if erosion levels in the neighboring region were higher, the probability was lower. The results of the present study provide important information for the planning and implementation of soil conservation measures in the study area.

Estimating the Probability of Electrical Short Circuits from Tin Whiskers. Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Courey, Karim J.; Asfour, Shihab S.; Onar, Arzu; Bayliss, Jon A.; Ludwig, Larry L.; Wright, Maria C.

2009-01-01

To comply with lead-free legislation, many manufacturers have converted from tin-lead to pure tin finishes of electronic components. However, pure tin finishes have a greater propensity to grow tin whiskers than tin-lead finishes. Since tin whiskers present an electrical short circuit hazard in electronic components, simulations have been developed to quantify the risk of said short circuits occurring. Existing risk simulations make the assumption that when a free tin whisker has bridged two adjacent exposed electrical conductors, the result is an electrical short circuit. This conservative assumption is made because shorting is a random event that had an unknown probability associated with it. Note however that due to contact resistance electrical shorts may not occur at lower voltage levels. In our first article we developed an empirical probability model for tin whisker shorting. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive empirical model using a refined experiment with a larger sample size, in which we studied the effect of varying voltage on the breakdown of the contact resistance which leads to a short circuit. From the resulting data we estimated the probability distribution of an electrical short, as a function of voltage.

An Experiment Quantifying The Effect Of Clutter On Target Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weathersby, Marshall R.; Schmieder, David E.

1985-01-01

Experiments were conducted to determine the influence of background clutter on target detection criteria. The experiment consisted of placing observers in front of displayed images on a TV monitor. Observer ability to detect military targets embedded in simulated natural and manmade background clutter was measured when there was unlimited viewing time. Results were described in terms of detection probability versus target resolution for various signal to clutter ratios (SCR). The experiments were preceded by a search for a meaningful clutter definition. The selected definition was a statistical measure computed by averaging the standard deviation of contiguous scene cells over the whole scene. The cell size was comparable to the target size. Observer test results confirmed the expectation that the resolution required for a given detection probability was a continuum function of the clutter level. At the lower SCRs the resolution required for a high probability of detection was near 6 lines pairs per target (LP/TGT), while at the higher SCRs it was found that a resolution of less than 0.25 LP/TGT would yield a high probability of detection. These results are expected to aid in target acquisition performance modeling and to lead to improved specifications for imaging automatic target screeners.

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

2017-07-20

For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sedimentary, tectonic, and sea-level controls on submarine fan and slope-apron turbidite systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stow, D.A.V.; Howell, D.G.; Nelson, C.H.

1984-01-01

To help understand factors that influence submarine fan deposition, we outline some of the principal sedimentary, tectonic, and sea-level controls involved in deep-water sedimentation, give some data on the rates at which they operate, and evaluate their probable effects. Three depositional end-member systems, two submarine fan types (elongate and radial), and a third nonfan, slope-apron system result primarily from variations in sediment type and supply. Tectonic setting and local and global sea-level changes further modify the nature of fan growth, the distribution of facies, and the resulting vertical stratigraphic sequences. ?? 1984 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Tables of stark level transition probabilities and branching ratios in hydrogen-like atoms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Omidvar, K.

1980-01-01

The transition probabilities which are given in terms of n prime k prime and n k are tabulated. No additional summing or averaging is necessary. The electric quantum number k plays the role of the angular momentum quantum number l in the presence of an electric field. The branching ratios between stark levels are also tabulated. Necessary formulas for the transition probabilities and branching ratios are given. Symmetries are discussed and selection rules are given. Some disagreements for some branching ratios are found between the present calculation and the measurement of Mark and Wierl. The transition probability multiplied by the statistical weight of the initial state is called the static intensity J sub S, while the branching ratios are called the dynamic intensity J sub D.

Dynamics of a Landau-Zener non-dissipative system with fluctuating energy levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fai, L. C.; Diffo, J. T.; Ateuafack, M. E.; Tchoffo, M.; Fouokeng, G. C.

2014-12-01

This paper considers a Landau-Zener (two-level) system influenced by a three-dimensional Gaussian and non-Gaussian coloured noise and finds a general form of the time dependent diabatic quantum bit (qubit) flip transition probabilities in the fast, intermediate and slow noise limits. The qubit flip probability is observed to mimic (for low-frequencies noise) that of the standard LZ problem. The qubit flip probability is also observed to be the measure of quantum coherence of states. The transition probability is observed to be tailored by non-Gaussian low-frequency noise and otherwise by Gaussian low-frequency coloured noise. Intermediate and fast noise limits are observed to alter the memory of the system in time and found to improve and control quantum information processing.

Detection probability of least tern and piping plover chicks in a large river system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roche, Erin A.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Anteau, Michael J.; Sherfy, Mark H.; Stucker, Jennifer H.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Dovichin, Colin M.

2014-01-01

Monitoring the abundance and stability of populations of conservation concern is often complicated by an inability to perfectly detect all members of the population. Mark-recapture offers a flexible framework in which one may identify factors contributing to imperfect detection, while at the same time estimating demographic parameters such as abundance or survival. We individually color-marked, recaptured, and re-sighted 1,635 federally listed interior least tern (Sternula antillarum; endangered) chicks and 1,318 piping plover (Charadrius melodus; threatened) chicks from 2006 to 2009 at 4 study areas along the Missouri River and investigated effects of observer-, subject-, and site-level covariates suspected of influencing detection. Increasing the time spent searching and crew size increased the probability of detecting both species regardless of study area and detection methods were not associated with decreased survival. However, associations between detection probability and the investigated covariates were highly variable by study area and species combinations, indicating that a universal mark-recapture design may not be appropriate.

Crime and punishment: Does it pay to punish?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, J. R.; Semeshenko, V.; Schneider, E. M.; Gordon, M. B.

2012-08-01

Crime is the result of a rational distinctive balance between the benefits and costs of an illegal act. This idea was proposed by Becker more than forty years ago (Becker (1968) [1]). In this paper, we simulate a simple artificial society, in which agents earn fixed wages and can augment (or lose) wealth as a result of a successful (or not) act of crime. The probability of apprehension depends on the gravity of the crime, and the punishment takes the form of imprisonment and fines. We study the costs of the law enforcement system required for keeping crime within acceptable limits, and compare it with the harm produced by crime. A sharp phase transition is observed as a function of the probability of punishment, and this transition exhibits a clear hysteresis effect, suggesting that the cost of reversing a deteriorated situation might be much higher than that of maintaining a relatively low level of delinquency. Besides, we analyze economic consequences that arise from crimes under different scenarios of criminal activity and probabilities of apprehension.

A probabilistic safety analysis of incidents in nuclear research reactors.

PubMed

Lopes, Valdir Maciel; Agostinho Angelo Sordi, Gian Maria; Moralles, Mauricio; Filho, Tufic Madi

2012-06-01

This work aims to evaluate the potential risks of incidents in nuclear research reactors. For its development, two databases of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were used: the Research Reactor Data Base (RRDB) and the Incident Report System for Research Reactor (IRSRR). For this study, the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) was used. To obtain the result of the probability calculations for PSA, the theory and equations in the paper IAEA TECDOC-636 were used. A specific program to analyse the probabilities was developed within the main program, Scilab 5.1.1. for two distributions, Fischer and chi-square, both with the confidence level of 90 %. Using Sordi equations, the maximum admissible doses to compare with the risk limits established by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) were obtained. All results achieved with this probability analysis led to the conclusion that the incidents which occurred had radiation doses within the stochastic effects reference interval established by the ICRP-64.

Psychopathology among New York city public school children 6 months after September 11.

PubMed

Hoven, Christina W; Duarte, Cristiane S; Lucas, Christopher P; Wu, Ping; Mandell, Donald J; Goodwin, Renee D; Cohen, Michael; Balaban, Victor; Woodruff, Bradley A; Bin, Fan; Musa, George J; Mei, Lori; Cantor, Pamela A; Aber, J Lawrence; Cohen, Patricia; Susser, Ezra

2005-05-01

Children exposed to a traumatic event may be at higher risk for developing mental disorders. The prevalence of child psychopathology, however, has not been assessed in a population-based sample exposed to different levels of mass trauma or across a range of disorders. To determine prevalence and correlates of probable mental disorders among New York City, NY, public school students 6 months following the September 11, 2001, World Trade Center attack. Survey. New York City public schools. A citywide, random, representative sample of 8236 students in grades 4 through 12, including oversampling in closest proximity to the World Trade Center site (ground zero) and other high-risk areas. Children were screened for probable mental disorders with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children Predictive Scales. One or more of 6 probable anxiety/depressive disorders were identified in 28.6% of all children. The most prevalent were probable agoraphobia (14.8%), probable separation anxiety (12.3%), and probable posttraumatic stress disorder (10.6%). Higher levels of exposure correspond to higher prevalence for all probable anxiety/depressive disorders. Girls and children in grades 4 and 5 were the most affected. In logistic regression analyses, child's exposure (adjusted odds ratio, 1.62), exposure of a child's family member (adjusted odds ratio, 1.80), and the child's prior trauma (adjusted odds ratio, 2.01) were related to increased likelihood of probable anxiety/depressive disorders. Results were adjusted for different types of exposure, sociodemographic characteristics, and child mental health service use. A high proportion of New York City public school children had a probable mental disorder 6 months after September 11, 2001. The data suggest that there is a relationship between level of exposure to trauma and likelihood of child anxiety/depressive disorders in the community. The results support the need to apply wide-area epidemiological approaches to mental health assessment after any large-scale disaster.

Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Desimone, Richard; Schwartz, Michael K.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Pilgrim, Kristy P.; Mckelvey, Kevin S.

2012-01-01

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management strategies. Traditional mark–recapture methods do not explicitly account for differences in individual capture probabilities due to the spatial distribution of individuals in relation to survey effort (or trap locations). However, recent advances in the analysis of capture–recapture data have produced methods estimating abundance and density of animals from spatially explicit capture–recapture data that account for heterogeneity in capture probabilities due to the spatial organization of individuals and traps. We adapt recently developed spatial capture–recapture models to estimate density and abundance of mountain lions in western Montana. Volunteers and state agency personnel collected mountain lion DNA samples in portions of the Blackfoot drainage (7,908 km2) in west-central Montana using 2 methods: snow back-tracking mountain lion tracks to collect hair samples and biopsy darting treed mountain lions to obtain tissue samples. Overall, we recorded 72 individual capture events, including captures both with and without tissue sample collection and hair samples resulting in the identification of 50 individual mountain lions (30 females, 19 males, and 1 unknown sex individual). We estimated lion densities from 8 models containing effects of distance, sex, and survey effort on detection probability. Our population density estimates ranged from a minimum of 3.7 mountain lions/100 km2 (95% Cl 2.3–5.7) under the distance only model (including only an effect of distance on detection probability) to 6.7 (95% Cl 3.1–11.0) under the full model (including effects of distance, sex, survey effort, and distance x sex on detection probability). These numbers translate to a total estimate of 293 mountain lions (95% Cl 182–451) to 529 (95% Cl 245–870) within the Blackfoot drainage. Results from the distance model are similar to previous estimates of 3.6 mountain lions/100 km2 for the study area; however, results from all other models indicated greater numbers of mountain lions. Our results indicate that unstructured spatial sampling combined with spatial capture–recapture analysis can be an effective method for estimating large carnivore densities.

Water resources and potential effects of surface coal mining in the area of the Woodson Preference Right Lease Application, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, M.R.

1987-01-01

Federal coal lands of the Woodson Preference Right Lease Application are located in Dawson and Richland Counties, northeastern Montana. A probable mine area, comprised of the lease area and adjacent coal lands, contains about 220 million tons of recoverable lignite coal in the 12-37 ft thick Pust coal bed. A hydrologic study has been conducted in the area to describe the water resources and to evaluate potential effects of coal mining on the water resources. Geohydrologic data collected from wells and springs indicate that several aquifers exist in the area. Sandstone beds in the Tongue River Member of the Fort Union Formation (Paleocene age) are the most common aquifers and probably underlie the entire area. The Pust coal bed in the Tongue River Member is water saturated in part of the probable mine area and is dry in other parts of the probable mine area. Other aquifers, located mostly outside of the probable mine area, exist in gravel of the Flaxville Formation (Miocene of Pliocene age) and valley alluvium (Pleistocene and Holocene age). Chemical analyses of groundwater indicate a range in dissolved solids concentration of 240-2,280 mg/L. Surface water resources are limited. Most streams in the area are ephemeral and flow only in response to rainfall or snowmelt. Small reaches of the North and Middle Forks of Burns Creek have intermittent flow. Water sampled from a small perennial reach of the Middle Fork had a dissolved solids concentration of 700 mg/L. Mining of the Pust coal bed would destroy one spring and four stock wells, dewater areas of the Pust coal and sandstone aquifers, and probably lower water levels in seven stock and domestic wells. Mining in the valley of Middle Fork Burns Creek would intercept streamflow and alter flow characteristics of a small perennial reach of stream. Leaching of soluble minerals from mine spoils may cause a long-term degradation of the quality of water in the spoils and in aquifers downgradient from the spoils. Some of the effects on local water supplies could be mitigated by development of new wells in deeper sandstones of the Tongue River Member. Effects of mining on water resources would be minimized if only areas of dry coal were mined. (Author 's abstract)

Using known map category marginal frequencies to improve estimates of thematic map accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Card, D. H.

1982-01-01

By means of two simple sampling plans suggested in the accuracy-assessment literature, it is shown how one can use knowledge of map-category relative sizes to improve estimates of various probabilities. The fact that maximum likelihood estimates of cell probabilities for the simple random sampling and map category-stratified sampling were identical has permitted a unified treatment of the contingency-table analysis. A rigorous analysis of the effect of sampling independently within map categories is made possible by results for the stratified case. It is noted that such matters as optimal sample size selection for the achievement of a desired level of precision in various estimators are irrelevant, since the estimators derived are valid irrespective of how sample sizes are chosen.

Extreme Statistics of Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, E. A.; Medvedev, I. P.

2017-11-01

Statistical analysis of the extreme values of the Baltic Sea level has been performed for a series of observations for 15-125 years at 13 tide gauge stations. It is shown that the empirical relation between value of extreme sea level rises or ebbs (caused by storm events) and its return period in the Baltic Sea can be well approximated by the Gumbel probability distribution. The maximum values of extreme floods/ebbs of the 100-year recurrence were observed in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The two longest data series, observed in Stockholm and Vyborg over 125 years, have shown a significant deviation from the Gumbel distribution for the rarest events. Statistical analysis of the hourly sea level data series reveals some asymmetry in the variability of the Baltic Sea level. The probability of rises proved higher than that of ebbs. As for the magnitude of the 100-year recurrence surge, it considerably exceeded the magnitude of ebbs almost everywhere. This asymmetry effect can be attributed to the influence of low atmospheric pressure during storms. A statistical study of extreme values has also been applied to sea level series for Narva over the period of 1994-2000, which were simulated by the ROMS numerical model. Comparisons of the "simulated" and "observed" extreme sea level distributions show that the model reproduces quite satisfactorily extreme floods of "moderate" magnitude; however, it underestimates sea level changes for the most powerful storm surges.

State Size and Government Level Matter Most: A Structural Equation Model of Local Health Department Policy Behaviors.

PubMed

Meyerson, Beth E; Sayegh, M Aaron

2016-01-01

To explore relationships between local health department policy behaviors, levels of government activity, policy focus areas, and selected health department characteristics. Cross-sectional analysis of secondary data from the 2013 National Association of County & City Health Officials (NACCHO) Profile Survey. Local health departments throughout the United States. A total of 2000 local health departments responding to the 2013 Profile Survey of Local Health Departments. Survey data were gathered by the NACCHO. Secondary analysis of reported policy behaviors for the 2013 NACCHO Profile Survey. A structural equation model tested effects on and between state population size, rurality, census region and policy focus, and the latent variables of policy behavior formed from a confirmatory factor analysis. Policy behaviors, levels of government activity (local, state, and federal), policy focus areas, and selected local health department characteristics. The majority (85.1%) of health departments reported at least one of the possible policy behaviors. State population size increased the probability of local policy behavior, and local behavior increased the probability of state policy behavior. State size increased the likelihood of federal policy behavior and the focus on tobacco, emergency preparedness, and obesity/chronic disease. However, the more rural a state was, the more likely policy behavior was at the state and federal levels and not at local levels. Specific policy behaviors mattered less than the level of government activity. Size of state and rurality of health departments influence the government level of policy behavior.

Implementing a probabilistic definition of freedom from infection to facilitate trade of livestock: putting theory into praxis for the example of bovine herpes virus-1.

PubMed

Schuppers, M E; Stegeman, J A; Kramps, J A; Stärk, K D C

2012-07-01

International trade of livestock and livestock products poses a significant potential threat for spread of diseases, and importing countries therefore often require that imported animals and products are free from certain pathogens. However, absolute freedom from infection cannot be documented, since all test protocols are imperfect and can lead to false-negative results. It is possible instead to estimate the "probability of freedom from infection" and its opposite, the probability of infection despite having a negative test result. These probabilities can be estimated based on a pre-defined target prevalence, known surveillance efforts in the target population and known test characteristics of any pre-export test. Here, calculations are demonstrated using the example of bovine herpes virus-1 (BoHV-1). In a population that recently became free of BoHV-1 without using vaccination, the probability of being infected of an animal randomly selected for trade is 800 per 1 million and this probability is reduced to 64 (95% probability interval PI 6-161) per 1 million when this animal is tested negatively prior to export with a gB-ELISA. In a population that recently became free of BoHV-1 using vaccination, the probability of being infected of an animal randomly selected for trade is 200 per 1 million, and this probability can be reduced to 63 (95% PI 42-87) when this animal is tested negatively prior to export with a gE-ELISA. Similar estimations can be made on a herd level when assumptions are made about the herd size and the intensity of the surveillance efforts. Subsequently, the overall probability for an importing country of importing at least 1 infected animal can be assessed by taking into account the trade volume. Definition of the acceptable level of risk, including the probability of false-negative results to occur, is part of risk management. Internationally harmonized target prevalence levels for the declaration of freedom from infection from selected pathogens provide a significant contribution to the facilitation of international trade of livestock and livestock products by allowing exporting countries to design tailor-made output-based surveillance programs, while providing equivalent guarantees regarding the probability of freedom from infection of the population. Combining this with an approach to assess the overall probability of introducing at least 1 infected animal into an importing country during a defined time interval will help importing countries to achieve their desired level of acceptable risk and will help to assess the equivalence of animal health and food safety standards between trading partners. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microdosimetric Analysis Confirms Similar Biological Effectiveness of External Exposure to Gamma-Rays and Internal Exposure to 137Cs, 134Cs, and 131I

PubMed Central

Sato, Tatsuhiko; Manabe, Kentaro; Hamada, Nobuyuki

2014-01-01

The risk of internal exposure to 137Cs, 134Cs, and 131I is of great public concern after the accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant. The relative biological effectiveness (RBE, defined herein as effectiveness of internal exposure relative to the external exposure to γ-rays) is occasionally believed to be much greater than unity due to insufficient discussions on the difference of their microdosimetric profiles. We therefore performed a Monte Carlo particle transport simulation in ideally aligned cell systems to calculate the probability densities of absorbed doses in subcellular and intranuclear scales for internal exposures to electrons emitted from 137Cs, 134Cs, and 131I, as well as the external exposure to 662 keV photons. The RBE due to the inhomogeneous radioactive isotope (RI) distribution in subcellular structures and the high ionization density around the particle trajectories was then derived from the calculated microdosimetric probability density. The RBE for the bystander effect was also estimated from the probability density, considering its non-linear dose response. The RBE due to the high ionization density and that for the bystander effect were very close to 1, because the microdosimetric probability densities were nearly identical between the internal exposures and the external exposure from the 662 keV photons. On the other hand, the RBE due to the RI inhomogeneity largely depended on the intranuclear RI concentration and cell size, but their maximum possible RBE was only 1.04 even under conservative assumptions. Thus, it can be concluded from the microdosimetric viewpoint that the risk from internal exposures to 137Cs, 134Cs, and 131I should be nearly equivalent to that of external exposure to γ-rays at the same absorbed dose level, as suggested in the current recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. PMID:24919099

Breastfeeding, introduction of other foods and effects on health: a systematic literature review for the 5th Nordic Nutrition Recommendations

PubMed Central

Hörnell, Agneta; Lagström, Hanna; Lande, Britt; Thorsdottir, Inga

2013-01-01

The present systematic literature review is part of the 5th revision of the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations. The overall aim was to review recent scientific data valid in a Nordic setting on the short- and long-term health effects of breastfeeding (duration of both any and exclusive breastfeeding) and introduction of foods other than breast milk. The initial literature search resulted in 2,011 abstracts; 416 identified as potentially relevant. Full paper review resulted in 60 quality assessed papers (6A, 48B, and 6C). A complementary search found some additional papers. The grade of evidence was classified as convincing, probable, limited-suggestive, and limited-no conclusion. The evidence was convincing of a protective dose/duration effect of breastfeeding against overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence, overall infections, acute otitis media, and gastrointestinal and respiratory tract infections. The evidence was probable that exclusive breastfeeding for longer than 4 months is associated with slower weight gain during the second half of the first year which could be part of the reason behind the reduced risk of later overweight or obesity. There was also probable evidence that breastfeeding is a protective factor against inflammatory bowel disease, celiac disease, and diabetes (type 1 and 2), provides beneficial effects on IQ and developmental scores of children as well as a small reductive effect on blood pressure and blood cholesterol levels in adulthood. Other associations explored were limited-suggestive or inconclusive. In conclusion, convincing and probable evidence was found for benefits of breastfeeding on several outcomes. The recommendation in NNR2004 about exclusive breastfeeding for 6 months and continued partial breastfeeding thereafter can stand unchanged. The relatively low proportion of infants in the Nordic countries following this recommendation indicates that strategies that protect, support and promote breastfeeding should be enhanced, and should also recognize the benefits for long-term health. PMID:23589711

Optimizing occupancy surveys by maximizing detection probability: application to amphibian monitoring in the Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Petitot, Maud; Manceau, Nicolas; Geniez, Philippe; Besnard, Aurélien

2014-09-01

Setting up effective conservation strategies requires the precise determination of the targeted species' distribution area and, if possible, its local abundance. However, detection issues make these objectives complex for most vertebrates. The detection probability is usually <1 and is highly dependent on species phenology and other environmental variables. The aim of this study was to define an optimized survey protocol for the Mediterranean amphibian community, that is, to determine the most favorable periods and the most effective sampling techniques for detecting all species present on a site in a minimum number of field sessions and a minimum amount of prospecting effort. We visited 49 ponds located in the Languedoc region of southern France on four occasions between February and June 2011. Amphibians were detected using three methods: nighttime call count, nighttime visual encounter, and daytime netting. The detection nondetection data obtained was then modeled using site-occupancy models. The detection probability of amphibians sharply differed between species, the survey method used and the date of the survey. These three covariates also interacted. Thus, a minimum of three visits spread over the breeding season, using a combination of all three survey methods, is needed to reach a 95% detection level for all species in the Mediterranean region. Synthesis and applications: detection nondetection surveys combined to site occupancy modeling approach are powerful methods that can be used to estimate the detection probability and to determine the prospecting effort necessary to assert that a species is absent from a site.

Surveillance guidelines for disease elimination: A case study of canine rabies

PubMed Central

Townsend, Sunny E.; Lembo, Tiziana; Cleaveland, Sarah; Meslin, François X.; Miranda, Mary Elizabeth; Putra, Anak Agung Gde; Haydon, Daniel T.; Hampson, Katie

2013-01-01

Surveillance is a critical component of disease control programmes but is often poorly resourced, particularly in developing countries lacking good infrastructure and especially for zoonoses which require combined veterinary and medical capacity and collaboration. Here we examine how successful control, and ultimately disease elimination, depends on effective surveillance. We estimated that detection probabilities of <0.1 are broadly typical of rabies surveillance in endemic countries and areas without a history of rabies. Using outbreak simulation techniques we investigated how the probability of detection affects outbreak spread, and outcomes of response strategies such as time to control an outbreak, probability of elimination, and the certainty of declaring freedom from disease. Assuming realistically poor surveillance (probability of detection <0.1), we show that proactive mass dog vaccination is much more effective at controlling rabies and no more costly than campaigns that vaccinate in response to case detection. Control through proactive vaccination followed by 2 years of continuous monitoring and vaccination should be sufficient to guarantee elimination from an isolated area not subject to repeat introductions. We recommend that rabies control programmes ought to be able to maintain surveillance levels that detect at least 5% (and ideally 10%) of all cases to improve their prospects of eliminating rabies, and this can be achieved through greater intersectoral collaboration. Our approach illustrates how surveillance is critical for the control and elimination of diseases such as canine rabies and can provide minimum surveillance requirements and technical guidance for elimination programmes under a broad-range of circumstances. PMID:23260376

The Classification of the Probability Unit Ability Levels of the Eleventh Grade Turkish Students by Cluster Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ozyurt, Ozcan

2014-01-01

In this study, the probability unit ability levels of the eleventh grade Turkish students were classified through cluster analysis. The study was carried out in a high school located in Trabzon, Turkey during the fall semester of the 2011-2012 academic years. A total of 84 eleventh grade students participated. Students were taught about…

GENERAL A Hierarchy of Compatibility and Comeasurability Levels in Quantum Logics with Unique Conditional Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerd, Niestegge

2010-12-01

In the quantum mechanical Hilbert space formalism, the probabilistic interpretation is a later ad-hoc add-on, more or less enforced by the experimental evidence, but not motivated by the mathematical model itself. A model involving a clear probabilistic interpretation from the very beginning is provided by the quantum logics with unique conditional probabilities. It includes the projection lattices in von Neumann algebras and here probability conditionalization becomes identical with the state transition of the Lüders-von Neumann measurement process. This motivates the definition of a hierarchy of five compatibility and comeasurability levels in the abstract setting of the quantum logics with unique conditional probabilities. Their meanings are: the absence of quantum interference or influence, the existence of a joint distribution, simultaneous measurability, and the independence of the final state after two successive measurements from the sequential order of these two measurements. A further level means that two elements of the quantum logic (events) belong to the same Boolean subalgebra. In the general case, the five compatibility and comeasurability levels appear to differ, but they all coincide in the common Hilbert space formalism of quantum mechanics, in von Neumann algebras, and in some other cases.

Stimulus probability effects in absolute identification.

PubMed

Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

2016-05-01

This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of presentation probability on both proportion correct and response times. The effects were moderated by the ubiquitous stimulus position effect. The accuracy and response time data were predicted by an exemplar-based model of perceptual cognition (Kent & Lamberts, 2005). The bow in discriminability was also attenuated when presentation probability for middle items was relatively high, an effect that will constrain future model development. The study provides evidence for item-specific learning in absolute identification. Implications for other theories of absolute identification are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Damage to DNA caused by UV-B radiation in the desert cyanobacterium Scytonema javanicum and the effects of exogenous chemicals on the process.

PubMed

Wang, Gaohong; Deng, Songqiang; Li, Cheng; Liu, Yongding; Chen, Lanzhou; Hu, Chaozhen

2012-07-01

Radiation with UV-B increased the damage to DNA in Scytonema javanicum, a desert-dwelling soil microorganism, and the level of damage varied with the intensity of UV-B radiation and duration of exposure. Production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) also increased because of the radiation. Different exogenous chemicals (ascorbate acid, ASC; N-acetylcysteine, NAC; glyphosate, GPS; and 2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid, MCPA-Na) differed in their effect on the extent of DNA damage and ROS production: whereas NAC and ASC protected the DNA from damage and resulted in reduced ROS production, the herbicides (GPS and MCPA-Na) increased the extent of damage, lowered the rate of photosynthesis, and differed in their effect on ROS production. The chemicals probably have different mechanisms to exercise their effects: NAC and ASC probably function as antioxidant agents or as precursors of other antioxidant molecules that protect the DNA and photosynthetic apparatus directly from the ROS produced as a result of UV-B radiation, and GPS and MCPA-Na probably disrupt the normal metabolism in S. javanicum to induce the leaking of ROS into the photosynthetic electron transfer pathway following UV-B radiation, and thereby damage the DNA. Such mechanisms have serious implications for the use of environment-friendly herbicides, which, because they can destroy DNA, may prove harmful to soil microorganisms. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probability Weighting Functions Derived from Hyperbolic Time Discounting: Psychophysical Models and Their Individual Level Testing.

PubMed

Takemura, Kazuhisa; Murakami, Hajime

2016-01-01

A probability weighting function (w(p)) is considered to be a nonlinear function of probability (p) in behavioral decision theory. This study proposes a psychophysical model of probability weighting functions derived from a hyperbolic time discounting model and a geometric distribution. The aim of the study is to show probability weighting functions from the point of view of waiting time for a decision maker. Since the expected value of a geometrically distributed random variable X is 1/p, we formulized the probability weighting function of the expected value model for hyperbolic time discounting as w(p) = (1 - k log p)(-1). Moreover, the probability weighting function is derived from Loewenstein and Prelec's (1992) generalized hyperbolic time discounting model. The latter model is proved to be equivalent to the hyperbolic-logarithmic weighting function considered by Prelec (1998) and Luce (2001). In this study, we derive a model from the generalized hyperbolic time discounting model assuming Fechner's (1860) psychophysical law of time and a geometric distribution of trials. In addition, we develop median models of hyperbolic time discounting and generalized hyperbolic time discounting. To illustrate the fitness of each model, a psychological experiment was conducted to assess the probability weighting and value functions at the level of the individual participant. The participants were 50 university students. The results of individual analysis indicated that the expected value model of generalized hyperbolic discounting fitted better than previous probability weighting decision-making models. The theoretical implications of this finding are discussed.

Lipopolysaccharide Alters Motivated Behavior in a Monetary Reward Task: a Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Lasselin, Julie; Treadway, Michael T; Lacourt, Tamara E; Soop, Anne; Olsson, Mats J; Karshikoff, Bianka; Paues-Göranson, Sofie; Axelsson, John; Dantzer, Robert; Lekander, Mats

2017-03-01

Inflammation-induced sickness is associated with a large set of behavioral alterations; however, its motivational aspects remain poorly explored in humans. The present study assessed the effect of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) administration at a dose of 2 ng/kg of body weight on motivation in 21 healthy human subjects in a double-blinded, placebo (saline)-controlled, cross-over design. Incentive motivation and reward sensitivity were measured using the Effort Expenditure for Rewards Task (EEfRT), in which motivation for high-effort/high-reward trials vs low-effort/low-reward trials are manipulated by variations in reward magnitude and probability to win. Because of the strong interactions between sleepiness and motivation, the role of sleepiness was also determined. As expected, the probability to win predicted the choice to engage in high-effort/high-reward trials; however, this occurred at a greater extent after LPS than after saline administration. This effect was related to the level of sleepiness. Sleepiness increased motivation to choose the high-effort/high-reward mode of response, but only when the probability to win was the highest. LPS had no effect on reward sensitivity either directly or via sleepiness. These results indicate that systemic inflammation induced by LPS administration causes motivational changes in young healthy subjects, which are associated with sleepiness. Thus, despite its association with energy-saving behaviors, sickness allows increased incentive motivation when the effort is deemed worthwhile.

Lipopolysaccharide Alters Motivated Behavior in a Monetary Reward Task: a Randomized Trial

PubMed Central

Lasselin, Julie; Treadway, Michael T; Lacourt, Tamara E; Soop, Anne; Olsson, Mats J; Karshikoff, Bianka; Paues-Göranson, Sofie; Axelsson, John; Dantzer, Robert; Lekander, Mats

2017-01-01

Inflammation-induced sickness is associated with a large set of behavioral alterations; however, its motivational aspects remain poorly explored in humans. The present study assessed the effect of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) administration at a dose of 2 ng/kg of body weight on motivation in 21 healthy human subjects in a double-blinded, placebo (saline)-controlled, cross-over design. Incentive motivation and reward sensitivity were measured using the Effort Expenditure for Rewards Task (EEfRT), in which motivation for high-effort/high-reward trials vs low-effort/low-reward trials are manipulated by variations in reward magnitude and probability to win. Because of the strong interactions between sleepiness and motivation, the role of sleepiness was also determined. As expected, the probability to win predicted the choice to engage in high-effort/high-reward trials; however, this occurred at a greater extent after LPS than after saline administration. This effect was related to the level of sleepiness. Sleepiness increased motivation to choose the high-effort/high-reward mode of response, but only when the probability to win was the highest. LPS had no effect on reward sensitivity either directly or via sleepiness. These results indicate that systemic inflammation induced by LPS administration causes motivational changes in young healthy subjects, which are associated with sleepiness. Thus, despite its association with energy-saving behaviors, sickness allows increased incentive motivation when the effort is deemed worthwhile. PMID:27620550

Adjusting for treatment switching in randomised controlled trials - A simulation study and a simplified two-stage method.

PubMed

Latimer, Nicholas R; Abrams, K R; Lambert, P C; Crowther, M J; Wailoo, A J; Morden, J P; Akehurst, R L; Campbell, M J

2017-04-01

Estimates of the overall survival benefit of new cancer treatments are often confounded by treatment switching in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) - whereby patients randomised to the control group are permitted to switch onto the experimental treatment upon disease progression. In health technology assessment, estimates of the unconfounded overall survival benefit associated with the new treatment are needed. Several switching adjustment methods have been advocated in the literature, some of which have been used in health technology assessment. However, it is unclear which methods are likely to produce least bias in realistic RCT-based scenarios. We simulated RCTs in which switching, associated with patient prognosis, was permitted. Treatment effect size and time dependency, switching proportions and disease severity were varied across scenarios. We assessed the performance of alternative adjustment methods based upon bias, coverage and mean squared error, related to the estimation of true restricted mean survival in the absence of switching in the control group. We found that when the treatment effect was not time-dependent, rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM) and iterative parameter estimation methods produced low levels of bias. However, in the presence of a time-dependent treatment effect, these methods produced higher levels of bias, similar to those produced by an inverse probability of censoring weights method. The inverse probability of censoring weights and structural nested models produced high levels of bias when switching proportions exceeded 85%. A simplified two-stage Weibull method produced low bias across all scenarios and provided the treatment switching mechanism is suitable, represents an appropriate adjustment method.

Opposite effects on regulation of urea synthesis by early and late uraemia in rats.

PubMed

Nielsen, Susanne Schouw; Grøfte, Thorbjørn; Grønbaek, Henning; Tygstrup, Niels; Vilstrup, Hendrik

2007-04-01

Acute and chronic kidney failure lead to catabolism with loss of lean body mass. Up-regulation of hepatic urea synthesis may play a role for the loss of body nitrogen and for the level of uraemia. The aims were to investigate the effects of early and late experimental renal failure on the regulation of hepatic urea synthesis and the expression of urea cycle enzyme genes in the liver. We examined the in vivo capacity of urea nitrogen synthesis, mRNA levels of urea cycle enzyme genes, and N-balances 6 days and 21 days after 5/6th partial nephrectomy in rats, and compared these data with pair- and free-fed control animals. Compared with pair-fed animals, early uraemia halved the in vivo urea synthesis capacity and decreased urea gene expressions (P<0.05). In contrast, late uraemia up-regulated in vivo urea synthesis and expression of all urea genes (P<0.05), save that of the flux-generating enzyme carbamoyl phosphate synthetase. The N-balance in rats with early uraemia was markedly negative (P<0.05) and near zero in late uraemia. Early uraemia down-regulated urea synthesis, so hepatic ureagenesis was not in itself involved in the negative N-balance. In contrast, late uraemia up-regulated urea synthesis, which probably contributed towards the reduced N-balance of this condition. These time-dependent, opposite effects on the uraemia-induced regulation of urea synthesis in vivo were not related to food restriction and probably mostly reflected regulation on gene level.

Detection and Identification of Acoustic Signatures

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

represent complex scenarios such as urban scenes with multiple sources in the soundscape and significant amount of reverberation and diffraction effects... soundscape . In either case it is necessary to understand that the probability of detection is a function of both the vehicle acoustic signature and...the acoustic masking component, or soundscape . And that both signals must be defined in greater depth than overall level, or average frequency

Cost-effectiveness analysis of allopurinol versus febuxostat in chronic gout patients: a U.S. payer perspective.

PubMed

Gandhi, Pranav K; Gentry, William M; Ma, Qinli; Bottorff, Michael B

2015-02-01

Gout is a chronic inflammatory condition associated with poor urate metabolism. Xanthine oxidase inhibitors such as allopurinol and febuxostat are recommended to reduce uric acid levels and to prevent gout attacks in adult patients. Under budget-driven constraints, health care payers are faced with the broader challenge of assessing the economic value of these agents for formulary placement. However, the economic value of allopurinol versus febuxostat has not be assessed in patients with gout over a 5-year time period in the United States. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of allopurinol versus febuxostat in adult patients with gout over a 5-year time period from a U.S. health care payer's perspective. A Markov model was developed to compare the total direct costs and success of serum uric acid (sUA) level reduction associated with allopurinol and febuxostat. Treatment success was defined as patient achievement of a sUA level less than  6 mg/dL (0.36 mmol/L) at 6 months. Event probabilities were based on published phase III randomized clinical trials and included long-term sequelae from open-label extension studies. A hypothetical cohort of 1,000 adult gout patients with sUA levels of ≥ 8 mg/dL (0.48 mmol/L) who had received either allopurinol 300 mg or febuxostat 80 mg at model entry transitioned among the 4 health states defined by treatment success, treatment failure and switch, treatment dropout, and death. The length of each Markov cycle was 6 months. Costs were gathered from the RED BOOK, Medicare fee schedules, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's Nationwide Inpatient Sample, and for a limited number of inputs, expert consultation. Direct costs included treatment drug costs, costs for prophylaxis drugs, diagnostic laboratory tests, and the treatment and management of acute gout flare. Resource utilization was based on clinical evidence and expert consultation. All costs were inflated to 2014 U.S. dollars and were discounted at 3% in the base case. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs) were performed to assess the robustness of the results. The total per patient cost incurred over 5 years was $50,295 for febuxostat and $48,413 for allopurinol, with an incremental total cost of $1,882. The expected percentage of treatment success during the 5-year period was 72 for febuxostat and 42 for allopurinol, resulting in an incremental percentage of treatment success of 30. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for febuxostat compared with allopurinol was $6,322 per treatment success over a 5-year time period. The one-way sensitivity analysis indicated that the results were sensitive to probability of treatment success for allopurinol, probability of treatment dropouts for both allopurinol and febuxostat, and the probability of failure and switch to allopurinol. PSAs demonstrated that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per treatment success, febuxostat was cost-effective compared with allopurinol. Febuxostat was found to be a cost-effective option compared with allopurinol based on a U.S. payer perspective.

A Quantum Theoretical Explanation for Probability Judgment Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.; Franco, Riccardo; Trueblood, Jennifer S.

2011-01-01

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector…

Procyanidins protect Fao cells against hydrogen peroxide-induced oxidative stress.

PubMed

Roig, Roser; Cascón, Esther; Arola, Lluis; Bladé, Cinta; Salvadó, M Josepa

2002-08-15

In this paper, we evaluate the extent to which flavonoids in red wine (catechin, epicatechin, quercetin and procyanidins) protect against hydrogen peroxide-induced oxidative stress in Fao cells. When cells were exposed to H(2)O(2), malondialdehyde (MDA) levels, oxidized glutathione (GSSG) levels and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) release increased, indicating membrane damage and oxidative stress. All the flavonoids studied, and in particular epicatechin and quercetin, protected the plasma membrane. Only procyanidins lowered MDA levels and LDH leakage, maintained a higher reduced/oxidized glutathione ratio, and increased catalase/superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase/superoxide dismutase ratios, and glutathione reductase and glutathione transferase activities. These results show that the procyanidin mixture has a greater antioxidant effect than the individual flavonoids studied, probably due to its oligomer content and/or the additive/synergistic effect of its compounds. This suggests that the mixture of flavonoids found in wine has a greater effect than individual phenols, which may explain many of the healthy effects attributed to wine.

Cost-effectiveness model for prevention of early childhood caries.

PubMed

Ramos-Gomez, F J; Shepard, D S

1999-07-01

This study presents and illustrates a model that determines the cost-effectiveness of three successively more complete levels of preventive intervention (minimal, intermediate, and comprehensive) in treating dental caries in disadvantaged children up to 6 years of age. Using existing data on the costs of early childhood caries (ECC), the authors estimated the probable cost-effectiveness of each of the three preventive intervention levels by comparing treatment costs to prevention costs as applied to a typical low-income California child for five years. They found that, in general, prevention becomes cost-saving if at least 59 percent of carious lesions receive restorative treatment. Assuming an average restoration cost of $112 per surface, the model predicts cost savings of $66 to $73 in preventing a one-surface, carious lesion. Thus, all three levels of preventive intervention should be relatively cost-effective. Comprehensive intervention would provide the greatest oral health benefit; however, because more children would receive reparative care, overall program costs would rise even as per-child treatment costs decline.

Antismoking Threat and Efficacy Appeals: Effects on Smoking Cessation Intentions for Smokers with Low and High Readiness to Quit

PubMed Central

Wong, Norman C. H.; Cappella, Joseph N.

2009-01-01

This study examined the effects of sequencing different types of antismoking threat and efficacy appeals on smoking cessation intentions for smokers with low and high levels of readiness to quit. An experiment was done to test predictions based on Witte's (1992) Extended Parallel Process Model and research by Cho and Salmon (2006). A national probability sample of 555 adult smokers was recruited to take part in this study. Results found a positive two-way interaction effect between message threat and perceived level of message efficacy on intentions to seek help for quitting. A three-way interaction effect was found between message threat, perceived level of message efficacy, and readiness to quit on quitting intentions. Both threat and efficacy were important for smokers with low readiness to quit, whereas efficacy was most important among smokers with high readiness to quit. Implications of the results for antismoking campaigns are discussed along with limitations and future directions. PMID:20046966

The investigation of the relationship between probability of suicide and reasons for living in psychiatric inpatients.

PubMed

Eskiyurt, Reyhan; Ozkan, Birgul

2017-01-01

This study was carried out to determine the reasons of the suicide probability and reasons for living of the inpatients hospitalized at the psychiatry clinic and to analyze the relationship between them. The sample of the study consisted of 192 patients who were hospitalized in psychiatric clinics between February and May 2016 and who agreed to participate in the study. In collecting data, personal information form, suicide probability scale (SPS), reasons for living inventory (RFL), and Beck's depression inventory (BDI) were used. Stepwise regression method was used to determine the factors that predict suicide probability. In the study, as a result of analyses made, the median score on the SPS was found 76.0, the median score on the RFL was found 137.0, the median score on the BDI of the patients was found 13.5, and it was found that patients with a high probability of suicide had less reasons for living and that their depression levels were very high. As a result of stepwise regression analysis, it was determined that suicidal ideation, reasons for living, maltreatment, education level, age, and income status were the predictors of suicide probability ( F = 61.125; P < 0.001). It was found that the patients who hospitalized in the psychiatric clinic have high suicide probability and the reasons of living are strong predictors of suicide probability in accordance with the literature.

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, Timothy; Lanfear, K.J.

1982-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method of route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occured), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, T.; Lanfear, K.J.

1980-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method and route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occurred), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

I Environmental DNA sampling is more sensitive than a traditional survey technique for detecting an aquatic invader.

PubMed

Smart, Adam S; Tingley, Reid; Weeks, Andrew R; van Rooyen, Anthony R; McCarthy, Michael A

2015-10-01

Effective management of alien species requires detecting populations in the early stages of invasion. Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling can detect aquatic species at relatively low densities, but few studies have directly compared detection probabilities of eDNA sampling with those of traditional sampling methods. We compare the ability of a traditional sampling technique (bottle trapping) and eDNA to detect a recently established invader, the smooth newt Lissotriton vulgaris vulgaris, at seven field sites in Melbourne, Australia. Over a four-month period, per-trap detection probabilities ranged from 0.01 to 0.26 among sites where L. v. vulgaris was detected, whereas per-sample eDNA estimates were much higher (0.29-1.0). Detection probabilities of both methods varied temporally (across days and months), but temporal variation appeared to be uncorrelated between methods. Only estimates of spatial variation were strongly correlated across the two sampling techniques. Environmental variables (water depth, rainfall, ambient temperature) were not clearly correlated with detection probabilities estimated via trapping, whereas eDNA detection probabilities were negatively correlated with water depth, possibly reflecting higher eDNA concentrations at lower water levels. Our findings demonstrate that eDNA sampling can be an order of magnitude more sensitive than traditional methods, and illustrate that traditional- and eDNA-based surveys can provide independent information on species distributions when occupancy surveys are conducted over short timescales.

True detection limits in an experimental linearly heteroscedastic system. Part 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigtman, Edward; Abraham, Kevin T.

2011-11-01

Using a lab-constructed laser-excited filter fluorimeter deliberately designed to exhibit linearly heteroscedastic, additive Gaussian noise, it has been shown that accurate estimates may be made of the true theoretical Currie decision levels ( YC and XC) and true Currie detection limits ( YD and XD) for the detection of rhodamine 6 G tetrafluoroborate in ethanol. The obtained experimental values, for 5% probability of false positives and 5% probability of false negatives, were YC = 56.1 mV, YD = 125. mV, XC = 0.132 μg /mL and XD = 0.294 μg /mL. For 5% probability of false positives and 1% probability of false negatives, the obtained detection limits were YD = 158. mV and XD = 0.372 μg /mL. These decision levels and corresponding detection limits were shown to pass the ultimate test: they resulted in observed probabilities of false positives and false negatives that were statistically equivalent to the a priori specified values.

Probability interpretations of intraclass reliabilities.

PubMed

Ellis, Jules L

2013-11-20

Research where many organizations are rated by different samples of individuals such as clients, patients, or employees frequently uses reliabilities computed from intraclass correlations. Consumers of statistical information, such as patients and policy makers, may not have sufficient background for deciding which levels of reliability are acceptable. It is shown that the reliability is related to various probabilities that may be easier to understand, for example, the proportion of organizations that will be classed significantly above (or below) the mean and the probability that an organization is classed correctly given that it is classed significantly above (or below) the mean. One can view these probabilities as the amount of information of the classification and the correctness of the classification. These probabilities have an inverse relationship: given a reliability, one can 'buy' correctness at the cost of informativeness and conversely. This article discusses how this can be used to make judgments about the required level of reliabilities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Usefulness of antigen-specific IgE probability curves derived from the 3gAllergy assay in diagnosing egg, cow's milk, and wheat allergies.

PubMed

Sato, Sakura; Ogura, Kiyotake; Takahashi, Kyohei; Sato, Yasunori; Yanagida, Noriyuki; Ebisawa, Motohiro

2017-04-01

Specific IgE (sIgE) antibody detection using the Siemens IMMULITE ® 3gAllergy™ (3gAllergy) assay have not been sufficiently examined for the diagnosis of food allergy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of measuring sIgE levels using the 3gAllergy assay to diagnose allergic reactions to egg, milk, and wheat. This retrospective study was conducted on patients with diagnosed or suspected allergies to egg, milk and wheat. Patients were divided into two groups according to their clinical reactivity to these allergens based on oral food challenge outcomes and/or convincing histories of immediate reaction to causative food(s). The sIgE levels were measured using 3gAllergy and ImmunoCAP. Predicted probability curves were estimated using logistic regression analysis. We analyzed 1561 patients, ages 0-19 y (egg = 436, milk = 499, wheat = 626). The sIgE levels determined using 3gAllergy correlated with those of ImmunoCAP, classifying 355 patients as symptomatic: egg = 149, milk = 123, wheat = 83. 3gAllergy sIgE levels were significantly higher in symptomatic than in asymptomatic patients (P < 0.0001). Predictive probability for positive food allergy was significantly increased and correlated with increased sIgE levels. The cut-offs for allergic reaction with 95% predictive probability as determined by the 3gAllergy probability curves were different from those of ImmunoCAP. Measurements of sIgE against egg, milk, and wheat as determined by 3gAllergy may be used as a tool to facilitate the diagnosis of food allergy in subjects with suspected food allergies. However, these probability curves should not be applied interchangeably between different assays. Copyright © 2016 Japanese Society of Allergology. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contrast statistics for foveated visual systems: fixation selection by minimizing contrast entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raj, Raghu; Geisler, Wilson S.; Frazor, Robert A.; Bovik, Alan C.

2005-10-01

The human visual system combines a wide field of view with a high-resolution fovea and uses eye, head, and body movements to direct the fovea to potentially relevant locations in the visual scene. This strategy is sensible for a visual system with limited neural resources. However, for this strategy to be effective, the visual system needs sophisticated central mechanisms that efficiently exploit the varying spatial resolution of the retina. To gain insight into some of the design requirements of these central mechanisms, we have analyzed the effects of variable spatial resolution on local contrast in 300 calibrated natural images. Specifically, for each retinal eccentricity (which produces a certain effective level of blur), and for each value of local contrast observed at that eccentricity, we measured the probability distribution of the local contrast in the unblurred image. These conditional probability distributions can be regarded as posterior probability distributions for the ``true'' unblurred contrast, given an observed contrast at a given eccentricity. We find that these conditional probability distributions are adequately described by a few simple formulas. To explore how these statistics might be exploited by central perceptual mechanisms, we consider the task of selecting successive fixation points, where the goal on each fixation is to maximize total contrast information gained about the image (i.e., minimize total contrast uncertainty). We derive an entropy minimization algorithm and find that it performs optimally at reducing total contrast uncertainty and that it also works well at reducing the mean squared error between the original image and the image reconstructed from the multiple fixations. Our results show that measurements of local contrast alone could efficiently drive the scan paths of the eye when the goal is to gain as much information about the spatial structure of a scene as possible.

Relationships among parental monitoring and sensation seeking on the development of substance use disorder among college students.

PubMed

Kaynak, Ovgü; Meyers, Kathleen; Caldeira, Kimberly M; Vincent, Kathryn B; Winters, Ken C; Arria, Amelia M

2013-01-01

Substance use disorder is a serious health problem that tends to manifest in late adolescence. Attempting to influence targetable risk and protective factors holds promise for prevention and treatment. Survey data from 1253 college students (48.5% male, 26.9% non-White) were used to investigate the independent and combined effects of two prominent factors, sensation seeking and parental monitoring, on the probability of alcohol and/or cannabis dependence during the first year of college. In multivariate analyses that controlled for high school use, gender, race, mother's education, and importance of religion, retrospective reports by the student of parental behavior during the last year of high school indicated that higher levels of parental monitoring had a direct effect on reducing risk for alcohol dependence during the first year of college, but not on cannabis dependence. High levels of sensation seeking were associated with increased risk for both alcohol and cannabis dependence. No interaction effects were found. The results extend prior findings by highlighting influences of pre-college parental monitoring and sensation seeking on the probability of alcohol and/or cannabis dependence during the first year of college. The findings also suggest that these two factors are useful in identifying college students at high risk for alcohol and/or cannabis dependence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Women’s decision-making autonomy and children’s schooling in rural Mozambique

PubMed Central

Luz, Luciana; Agadjanian, Victor

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Women’s decision-making autonomy in developing settings has been shown to improve child survival and health outcomes. However, little research has addressed possible connections between women’s autonomy and children’s schooling. OBJECTIVE To examine the relationship between rural women’s decision-making autonomy and enrollment status of primary school-age children living in their households and how this relationship differs by child’s gender. METHODS The analysis uses data from a 2009 survey of rural households in four districts of Gaza province in southern Mozambique. Multilevel logistic models predict the probability of being in school for children between 6 and 14 years old. RESULTS The results show a positive association of women’s decision-making autonomy with the probability of being enrolled in primary school for daughters, but not for sons. The effect of women’s autonomy is net of other women’s characteristics typically associated with enrollment and does not mediate the effects of those characteristics. CONCLUSIONS Based on the results, we argue that women with higher levels of decision-making autonomy may have a stronger preference for daughters’ schooling and may have a greater say in making and implementing decisions regarding daughters’ education, compared to women with lower autonomy levels. Results also illustrate a need for considering a broader set of autonomy-related characteristics when examining the effects of women’s status on children’s educational outcomes. PMID:26491400

Advances in the meta-analysis of heterogeneous clinical trials II: The quality effects model.

PubMed

Doi, Suhail A R; Barendregt, Jan J; Khan, Shahjahan; Thalib, Lukman; Williams, Gail M

2015-11-01

This article examines the performance of the updated quality effects (QE) estimator for meta-analysis of heterogeneous studies. It is shown that this approach leads to a decreased mean squared error (MSE) of the estimator while maintaining the nominal level of coverage probability of the confidence interval. Extensive simulation studies confirm that this approach leads to the maintenance of the correct coverage probability of the confidence interval, regardless of the level of heterogeneity, as well as a lower observed variance compared to the random effects (RE) model. The QE model is robust to subjectivity in quality assessment down to completely random entry, in which case its MSE equals that of the RE estimator. When the proposed QE method is applied to a meta-analysis of magnesium for myocardial infarction data, the pooled mortality odds ratio (OR) becomes 0.81 (95% CI 0.61-1.08) which favors the larger studies but also reflects the increased uncertainty around the pooled estimate. In comparison, under the RE model, the pooled mortality OR is 0.71 (95% CI 0.57-0.89) which is less conservative than that of the QE results. The new estimation method has been implemented into the free meta-analysis software MetaXL which allows comparison of alternative estimators and can be downloaded from www.epigear.com. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On land-use modeling: A treatise of satellite imagery data and misclassification error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandler, Austin M.

Recent availability of satellite-based land-use data sets, including data sets with contiguous spatial coverage over large areas, relatively long temporal coverage, and fine-scale land cover classifications, is providing new opportunities for land-use research. However, care must be used when working with these datasets due to misclassification error, which causes inconsistent parameter estimates in the discrete choice models typically used to model land-use. I therefore adapt the empirical correction methods developed for other contexts (e.g., epidemiology) so that they can be applied to land-use modeling. I then use a Monte Carlo simulation, and an empirical application using actual satellite imagery data from the Northern Great Plains, to compare the results of a traditional model ignoring misclassification to those from models accounting for misclassification. Results from both the simulation and application indicate that ignoring misclassification will lead to biased results. Even seemingly insignificant levels of misclassification error (e.g., 1%) result in biased parameter estimates, which alter marginal effects enough to affect policy inference. At the levels of misclassification typical in current satellite imagery datasets (e.g., as high as 35%), ignoring misclassification can lead to systematically erroneous land-use probabilities and substantially biased marginal effects. The correction methods I propose, however, generate consistent parameter estimates and therefore consistent estimates of marginal effects and predicted land-use probabilities.

Concurrent progressive ratio schedules: Effects of reinforcer probability on breakpoint and response allocation.

PubMed

Jarmolowicz, David P; Sofis, Michael J; Darden, Alexandria C

2016-07-01

Although progressive ratio (PR) schedules have been used to explore effects of a range of reinforcer parameters (e.g., magnitude, delay), effects of reinforcer probability remain underexplored. The present project used independently progressing concurrent PR PR schedules to examine effects of reinforcer probability on PR breakpoint (highest completed ratio prior to a session terminating 300s pause) and response allocation. The probability of reinforcement on one lever remained at 100% across all conditions while the probability of reinforcement on the other lever was systematically manipulated (i.e., 100%, 50%, 25%, 12.5%, and a replication of 25%). Breakpoints systematically decreased with decreasing reinforcer probabilities while breakpoints on the control lever remained unchanged. Patterns of switching between the two levers were well described by a choice-by-choice unit price model that accounted for the hyperbolic discounting of the value of probabilistic reinforcers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible

PubMed Central

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated. PMID:26783525

The Context Matters: Outcome Probability and Expectation Mismatch Modulate the Feedback Negativity When Self-Evaluation of Response Correctness Is Possible.

PubMed

Leue, Anja; Cano Rodilla, Carmen; Beauducel, André

2015-01-01

Individuals typically evaluate whether their performance and the obtained feedback match. Previous research has shown that feedback negativity (FN) depends on outcome probability and feedback valence. It is, however, less clear to what extent previous effects of outcome probability on FN depend on self-evaluations of response correctness. Therefore, we investigated the effects of outcome probability on FN amplitude in a simple go/no-go task that allowed for the self-evaluation of response correctness. We also investigated effects of performance incompatibility and feedback valence. In a sample of N = 22 participants, outcome probability was manipulated by means of precues, feedback valence by means of monetary feedback, and performance incompatibility by means of feedback that induced a match versus mismatch with individuals' performance. We found that the 100% outcome probability condition induced a more negative FN following no-loss than the 50% outcome probability condition. The FN following loss was more negative in the 50% compared to the 100% outcome probability condition. Performance-incompatible loss resulted in a more negative FN than performance-compatible loss. Our results indicate that the self-evaluation of the correctness of responses should be taken into account when the effects of outcome probability and expectation mismatch on FN are investigated.

Evaluation of availability of water from drift aquifers near the Pomme de Terre and Chippewa rivers, western Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delin, G.N.

1987-01-01

The model was used to simulate the effects of below-normal precipitation (drought) and hypothetical increases in ground-water development. Model results indicate that reduced recharge and increased pumping during a three-year extended drought probably would lower water levels 2 to 6 feet regionally in the surficial aquifer and in the Appleton and Benson-middle aquifers and as much as 11 feet near aquifer boundaries. Ground-water discharge to the Pomme de Terre and Chippewa Rivers in the modeled area probably would be reduced during the simulated drought by 15.2 and 7.4 cubic feet per second, respectively, compared to 1982 conditions. The addition of 30 hypothetical wells in the Benson-middle aquifer near Benson, pumping a total of 810 million gallons per year, resulted in water-level declines of as much as 1.3 and 2.7 feet in the surficial and Benson-middle aquifers, respectively. The addition of 28 hypothetical wells in the Appleton aquifer east and southeast of Appleton, pumping a total of 756 million gallons per year, lowered water levels in the surficial and Appleton confined aquifers as much as 5 feet.

Modeling electron emission and surface effects from diamond cathodes

DOE PAGES

Dimitrov, D. A.; Smithe, D.; Cary, J. R.; ...

2015-02-05

We developed modeling capabilities, within the Vorpal particle-in-cell code, for three-dimensional (3D) simulations of surface effects and electron emission from semiconductor photocathodes. They include calculation of emission probabilities using general, piece-wise continuous, space-time dependent surface potentials, effective mass and band bending field effects. We applied these models, in combination with previously implemented capabilities for modeling charge generation and transport in diamond, to investigate the emission dependence on applied electric field in the range from approximately 2 MV/m to 17 MV/m along the [100] direction. The simulation results were compared to experimental data. For the considered parameter regime, conservation of transversemore » electron momentum (in the plane of the emission surface) allows direct emission from only two (parallel to [100]) of the six equivalent lowest conduction band valleys. When the electron affinity χ is the only parameter varied in the simulations, the value χ = 0.31 eV leads to overall qualitative agreement with the probability of emission deduced from experiments. Including band bending in the simulations improves the agreement with the experimental data, particularly at low applied fields, but not significantly. In this study, using surface potentials with different profiles further allows us to investigate the emission as a function of potential barrier height, width, and vacuum level position. However, adding surface patches with different levels of hydrogenation, modeled with position-dependent electron affinity, leads to the closest agreement with the experimental data.« less

Combining contamination indexes, sediment quality guidelines and multivariate data analysis for metal pollution assessment in marine sediments of Cienfuegos Bay, Cuba.

PubMed

Peña-Icart, Mirella; Pereira-Filho, Edenir Rodrigues; Lopes Fialho, Lucimar; Nóbrega, Joaquim A; Alonso-Hernández, Carlos; Bolaños-Alvarez, Yoelvis; Pomares-Alfonso, Mario S

2017-02-01

The purpose of the present work was to combine several tools for assessing metal pollution in marine sediments from Cienfuegos Bay. Fourteen surface sediments collected in 2013 were evaluated. Concentrations of As, Cu, Ni, Zn and V decreased respect to those previous reported. The metal contamination was spatially distributed in the north and south parts of the bay. According to the contamination factor (CF) enrichment factor (EF) and index of geoaccumulation (I geo ), Cd and Cu were classified in that order as the most contaminated elements in most sediment. Comparison of the total metal concentrations with the threshold (TELs) and probable (PELs) effect levels in sediment quality guidelines suggested a more worrisome situation for Cu, of which concentrations were occasional associated with adverse biological effects in thirteen sediments, followed by Ni in nine sediments; while adverse effects were rarely associated with Cd. Probably, Cu could be considered as the most dangerous in the whole bay because it was classified in the high contamination levels by all indexes and, simultaneously, associated to occasional adverse effects in most samples. Despite the bioavailability was partially evaluated with the HCl method, the low extraction of Ni (<3% in all samples) and Cu (<55%, except sample 3) and the relative high extraction of Cd (50% or more, except sample 14) could be considered as an attenuating (Ni and Cu) or increasing (Cd) factor in the risk assessment of those element. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Quantifying Hydroperiod, Fire and Nutrient Effects on the Composition of Plant Communities in Marl Prairie of the Everglades: a Joint Probability Method Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, L.

2017-12-01

Plant community can be simultaneously affected by human activities and climate changes, and quantifying and predicting this combined effect on plant community by appropriate model framework which is validated by field data is complex, but very useful to conservation management. Plant communities in the Everglades provide an unique set of conditions to develop and validate this model framework, because they are both experiencing intensive effects of human activities (such as changing hydroperiod by drainage and restoration projects, nutrients from upstream agriculture, prescribed fire, etc.) and climate changes (such as warming, changing precipitation patter, sea level rise, etc.). More importantly, previous research attention focuses on plant communities in slough ecosystem (including ridge, slough and their tree islands), very few studies consider the marl prairie ecosystem. Comparing with slough ecosystem featured by remaining consistently flooded almost year-round, marl prairie has relatively shorter hydroperiod (just in wet-season of one year). Therefore, plant communities of marl prairie may receive more impacts from hydroperiod change. In addition to hydroperiod, fire and nutrients also affect the plant communities in the marl prairie. Therefore, to quantify the combined effects of water level, fire, and nutrients on the composition of the plant communities, we are developing a joint probability method based vegetation dynamic model. Further, the model is being validated by field data about changes of vegetation assemblage along environmental gradients in the marl prairie. Our poster showed preliminary data from our current project.

Viscoelasticity, postseismic slip, fault interactions, and the recurrence of large earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.

2005-01-01

The Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model for earthquake recurrence is modified to include transient deformation due to either viscoelasticity or deep post seismic slip. Both of these processes act to increase the rate of loading on the seismogenic fault for some time after a large event. To approximate these effects, a decaying exponential term is added to the BPT model's uniform loading term. The resulting interevent time distributions remain approximately lognormal, but the balance between the level of noise (e.g., unknown fault interactions) and the coefficient of variability of the interevent time distribution changes depending on the shape of the loading function. For a given level of noise in the loading process, transient deformation has the effect of increasing the coefficient of variability of earthquake interevent times. Conversely, the level of noise needed to achieve a given level of variability is reduced when transient deformation is included. Using less noise would then increase the effect of known fault interactions modeled as stress or strain steps because they would be larger with respect to the noise. If we only seek to estimate the shape of the interevent time distribution from observed earthquake occurrences, then the use of a transient deformation model will not dramatically change the results of a probability study because a similar shaped distribution can be achieved with either uniform or transient loading functions. However, if the goal is to estimate earthquake probabilities based on our increasing understanding of the seismogenic process, including earthquake interactions, then including transient deformation is important to obtain accurate results. For example, a loading curve based on the 1906 earthquake, paleoseismic observations of prior events, and observations of recent deformation in the San Francisco Bay region produces a 40% greater variability in earthquake recurrence than a uniform loading model with the same noise level.

Assessment of impact of urbanisation on background radiation exposure and human health risk estimation in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

PubMed

Sanusi, M S M; Ramli, A T; Hassan, W M S W; Lee, M H; Izham, A; Said, M N; Wagiran, H; Heryanshah, A

2017-07-01

Kuala Lumpur has been undergoing rapid urbanisation process, mainly in infrastructure development. The opening of new township and residential in former tin mining areas, particularly in the heavy mineral- or tin-bearing alluvial soil in Kuala Lumpur, is a contentious subject in land-use regulation. Construction practices, i.e. reclamation and dredging in these areas are potential to enhance the radioactivity levels of soil and subsequently, increase the existing background gamma radiation levels. This situation is worsened with the utilisation of tin tailings as construction materials apart from unavoidable soil pollutions due to naturally occurring radioactive materials in construction materials, e.g. granitic aggregate, cement and red clay brick. This study was conducted to assess the urbanisation impacts on background gamma radiation in Kuala Lumpur. The study found that the mean value of measured dose rate was 251±6nGyh -1 (156-392nGyh -1 ) and 4 times higher than the world average value. High radioactivity levels of 238 U (95±12Bqkg -1 ), 232 Th (191±23Bqkg -1 ,) and 40 K (727±130Bqkg -1 ) in soil were identified as the major source of high radiation exposure. Based on statistical ANOVA, t-test, and analyses of cumulative probability distribution, this study has statistically verified the dose enhancements in the background radiation. The effective dose was estimated to be 0.31±0.01mSvy -1 per man. The recommended ICRP reference level (1-20mSvy -1 ) is applicable to the involved existing exposure situation in this study. The estimated effective dose in this study is lower than the ICRP reference level and too low to cause deterministic radiation effects. Nevertheless based on estimations of lifetime radiation exposure risks, this study found that there was small probability for individual in Kuala Lumpur being diagnosed with cancer and dying of cancer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monosodium glutamate suppresses the female reproductive function by impairing the functions of ovary and uterus in rat.

PubMed

Mondal, Mukti; Sarkar, Kaushik; Nath, Partha Pratim; Paul, Goutam

2018-02-01

The aim of the present study was to examine the effect of monosodium glutamate (MSG) on the functions of ovary and uterus in rat. Virgin female rats of Charles Foster strain (120 gms approximately) were administrated MSG by oral gavage at a dose level of 0.8, 1.6, 2.4 gm/kgBW/day, respectively for 30 and 40 days duration. We observed a significant decrease in the duration of proestrus, estrus and metestrus phases, and increase in the duration of diestrus phase and diestrus index compared to control. We found significant increase in the levels of serum LH, FSH and estradiol in test groups of rat. We also observed significant increase in the number of primary and primordial follicles, increase in the size of graafian follicle, and decrease in the size of corpus luteum. Further, we have seen significant increase in the activities SOD, CAT and GST, decrease in the activities GR and GPx, and decrease MDA level in MSG exposed groups. These results suggest that MSG impairs the functions of the ovary probably by augmenting the release of FSH, LH and estradiol; promoting the follicular maturation and improving the biochemical mechanism for antioxidant defense. We also observed significant potentiation of the force of contraction of uterus in estrus, metestrus and diestrus phases. This result suggests that MSG potentiates the contraction of uterus probably by stimulating the estradiol sensitivity to oxytocin. From the results it is concluded that MSG suppresses the female reproductive function in rat probably by impairing the functions of ovary and uterus. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Theoretical level energies and transition data for 4p64d4, 4p64d34f and 4p54d5 configurations of W34+ ion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpuškienė, R.; Bogdanovich, P.; Kisielius, R.

2017-05-01

The ab initio quasirelativistic approach developed specifically for the calculation of spectral parameters of highly charged ions was used to derive transition data for the tungsten ion W34+. The configuration interaction method was applied to include electron correlation effects. The relativistic effects were taken into account in the Breit-Pauli approximation. The level energies, radiative lifetimes τ, Landé g-factors are determined for the ground configuration 4p64d4 and two excited configurations 4p64d34f and 4p54d5. The radiative transition wavelengths λ and emission transition probabilities A for the electric dipole, electric quadrupole, electric octupole, magnetic dipole, and magnetic quadrupole transitions among the levels of these configurations are produced.

Levels and determinants of switching following intrauterine device discontinuation in 14 developing countries.

PubMed

Ali, Mohamed M; Park, Min Hae; Ngo, Thoai D

2014-07-01

To examine the levels and determinants of switching to any reversible modern contraceptive method following intrauterine device (IUD) discontinuation due to method-related reasons among women in developing countries. We analysed 5-year contraceptive calendar data from 14 Demographic and Health Surveys, conducted in 1993-2008 (n=218,092 women; 17,151 women contributed a total of 18,485 IUD episodes). Life-table methods were used to determine overall and cause-specific probabilities of IUD discontinuation at 12 months of use. For IUD episodes discontinued due to method-related reasons, the probability of switching to another reversible modern method within 3 months was estimated, overall and by place of residence, education level, motivation for use, age category and wealth tertiles. Country-specific rate ratios (RR) were estimated using generalized linear models, and pooled RRs using meta-analyses. The median duration of uninterrupted IUD use was 37 months. At 12 months, median probability of discontinuation was 13.2% and median probability of discontinuation due to method-related reasons was 8.9%. Within 3 months of discontinuation due to method-related reasons, half of the women had switched to another reversible modern method, 12% switched to traditional methods, 12% became pregnant, and 25% remained at risk for pregnancy. More educated women were more likely to switch to another reversible modern method than women with primary education or less (pooled RR 1.47; 95% CI 1.10-1.96), as were women in the highest wealth tertile (pooled RR 1.38; 95% CI 1.04-1.83) and women who were limiting births (pooled RR 1.35; 95% CI 1.08-1.68). Delays to switching and switching to less reliable methods following IUD discontinuation remain a problem, exposing women to the risk of unwanted pregnancy. Family planning programmes should aim to improve quality of services through strengthening of counselling and follow-up services to support women's continuation of effective methods. The risk of unintended pregnancy following IUD discontinuation remains high in developing countries. The quality of family planning services may be an important factor in switching to alternative modern contraceptive methods. Service providers should focus on counselling services and follow-up of women to support the continued use of effective methods. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Cross-Sectional Comparison of the Effects of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density on Word Learning by Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoover, Jill R.; Storkel, Holly L.; Hogan, Tiffany P.

2010-01-01

Two experiments examined the effects of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density on word learning by 3-, 4-, and 5-year-old children. Nonwords orthogonally varying in probability and density were taught with learning and retention measured via picture naming. Experiment 1 used a within story probability/across story density exposure…

Lost in folding space? Comparing four variants of the thermodynamic model for RNA secondary structure prediction.

PubMed

Janssen, Stefan; Schudoma, Christian; Steger, Gerhard; Giegerich, Robert

2011-11-03

Many bioinformatics tools for RNA secondary structure analysis are based on a thermodynamic model of RNA folding. They predict a single, "optimal" structure by free energy minimization, they enumerate near-optimal structures, they compute base pair probabilities and dot plots, representative structures of different abstract shapes, or Boltzmann probabilities of structures and shapes. Although all programs refer to the same physical model, they implement it with considerable variation for different tasks, and little is known about the effects of heuristic assumptions and model simplifications used by the programs on the outcome of the analysis. We extract four different models of the thermodynamic folding space which underlie the programs RNAFOLD, RNASHAPES, and RNASUBOPT. Their differences lie within the details of the energy model and the granularity of the folding space. We implement probabilistic shape analysis for all models, and introduce the shape probability shift as a robust measure of model similarity. Using four data sets derived from experimentally solved structures, we provide a quantitative evaluation of the model differences. We find that search space granularity affects the computed shape probabilities less than the over- or underapproximation of free energy by a simplified energy model. Still, the approximations perform similar enough to implementations of the full model to justify their continued use in settings where computational constraints call for simpler algorithms. On the side, we observe that the rarely used level 2 shapes, which predict the complete arrangement of helices, multiloops, internal loops and bulges, include the "true" shape in a rather small number of predicted high probability shapes. This calls for an investigation of new strategies to extract high probability members from the (very large) level 2 shape space of an RNA sequence. We provide implementations of all four models, written in a declarative style that makes them easy to be modified. Based on our study, future work on thermodynamic RNA folding may make a choice of model based on our empirical data. It can take our implementations as a starting point for further program development.

Vertex evoked potentials in a rating-scale detection task: Relation to signal probability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squires, K. C.; Squires, N. K.; Hillyard, S. A.

1974-01-01

Vertex evoked potentials were recorded from human subjects performing in an auditory detection task with rating scale responses. Three values of a priori probability of signal presentation were tested. The amplitudes of the N1 and P3 components of the vertex potential associated with correct detections of the signal were found to be systematically related to the strictness of the response criterion and independent of variations in a priori signal probability. No similar evoked potential components were found associated with signal absent judgements (misses and correct rejections) regardless of the confidence level of the judgement or signal probability. These results strongly support the contention that the form of the vertex evoked response is closely correlated with the subject's psychophysical decision regarding the presence or absence of a threshold level signal.

Using fingerprint image quality to improve the identification performance of the U.S. Visitor and Immigrant Status Indicator Technology Program

PubMed Central

Wein, Lawrence M.; Baveja, Manas

2005-01-01

Motivated by the difficulty of biometric systems to correctly match fingerprints with poor image quality, we formulate and solve a game-theoretic formulation of the identification problem in two settings: U.S. visa applicants are checked against a list of visa holders to detect visa fraud, and visitors entering the U.S. are checked against a watchlist of criminals and suspected terrorists. For three types of biometric strategies, we solve the game in which the U.S. Government chooses the strategy's optimal parameter values to maximize the detection probability subject to a constraint on the mean biometric processing time per legal visitor, and then the terrorist chooses the image quality to minimize the detection probability. At current inspector staffing levels at ports of entry, our model predicts that a quality-dependent two-finger strategy achieves a detection probability of 0.733, compared to 0.526 under the quality-independent two-finger strategy that is currently implemented at the U.S. border. Increasing the staffing level of inspectors offers only minor increases in the detection probability for these two strategies. Using more than two fingers to match visitors with poor image quality allows a detection probability of 0.949 under current staffing levels, but may require major changes to the current U.S. biometric program. The detection probabilities during visa application are ≈11–22% smaller than at ports of entry for all three strategies, but the same qualitative conclusions hold. PMID:15894628

Using fingerprint image quality to improve the identification performance of the U.S. Visitor and Immigrant Status Indicator Technology Program.

PubMed

Wein, Lawrence M; Baveja, Manas

2005-05-24

Motivated by the difficulty of biometric systems to correctly match fingerprints with poor image quality, we formulate and solve a game-theoretic formulation of the identification problem in two settings: U.S. visa applicants are checked against a list of visa holders to detect visa fraud, and visitors entering the U.S. are checked against a watchlist of criminals and suspected terrorists. For three types of biometric strategies, we solve the game in which the U.S. Government chooses the strategy's optimal parameter values to maximize the detection probability subject to a constraint on the mean biometric processing time per legal visitor, and then the terrorist chooses the image quality to minimize the detection probability. At current inspector staffing levels at ports of entry, our model predicts that a quality-dependent two-finger strategy achieves a detection probability of 0.733, compared to 0.526 under the quality-independent two-finger strategy that is currently implemented at the U.S. border. Increasing the staffing level of inspectors offers only minor increases in the detection probability for these two strategies. Using more than two fingers to match visitors with poor image quality allows a detection probability of 0.949 under current staffing levels, but may require major changes to the current U.S. biometric program. The detection probabilities during visa application are approximately 11-22% smaller than at ports of entry for all three strategies, but the same qualitative conclusions hold.

78 FR 20137 - Probable Economic Effect of Certain Modifications to the North American Free Trade Agreement...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-03

... INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION [Investigation No. TA-103-027] Probable Economic Effect of Certain... investigation No. TA-103-027, Probable Economic Effect of Certain Modifications to the North American Free Trade... reached agreement in principle with representatives of the governments of Canada and Mexico on proposed...

Ground-level falls: 9-year cumulative experience in a regionalized trauma system

PubMed Central

Cade, Angela; King, Brad; Berne, John; Fernandez, Luis; Norwood, Scott

2012-01-01

Ground-level falls (GLFs) are the leading cause of nonfatal hospitalized injuries in the US. We hypothesized that risk-adjusted mortality would not vary between levels of trauma center verification if regional triage functioned appropriately. Data were collected from our regional trauma registry for the years 2001 through 2009. A multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model was developed to compare risk-adjusted mortality rates by trauma center level and by year. GLF patients numbered 8202 over 9 years with 2.1% mortality. Mean age was 74.5 years and mean probability of death was 0.021 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.020–0.021). The level I center–treated patients had the highest probability of death (0.033) compared to levels II and III/IV patients (0.023 and 0.018, respectively; P < 0.001), with the highest mortality (6.0%, 3.1%, and 1.1% for levels I, II, and III/IV; P < 0.001). The adjusted odds ratio of mortality was lowest at the level I center (0.71; 95% CI, 0.56–0.91), while no difference existed between level II (1.17; 95% CI, 0.90–1.51) and level III/IV centers (1.22; 95% CI, 0.90–1.66). The 95% CIs for risk-adjusted mortality by year overlapped the 1.0 reference line for each year from 2002 to 2009. In conclusion, regional risk-adjusted mortality for GLF has varied little since 2002. More study is warranted to understand the lower risk-adjusted GLF mortality at the level I center for this growing patient population. PMID:22275774

Relationships Between Caffeine Intake and Risk for Probable Dementia or Global Cognitive Impairment: The Women's Health Initiative Memory Study.

PubMed

Driscoll, Ira; Shumaker, Sally A; Snively, Beverly M; Margolis, Karen L; Manson, JoAnn E; Vitolins, Mara Z; Rossom, Rebecca C; Espeland, Mark A

2016-12-01

Nonhuman studies suggest a protective effect of caffeine on cognition. Although human literature remains less consistent, reviews suggest a possible favorable relationship between caffeine consumption and cognitive impairment or dementia. We investigated the relationship between caffeine intake and incidence of cognitive impairment or probable dementia in women aged 65 and older from the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study. All women with self-reported caffeine consumption at enrollment were included (N = 6,467). In 10 years or less of follow-up with annual assessments of cognitive function, 388 of these women received a diagnosis of probable dementia based on a 4-phase protocol that included central adjudication. We used proportional hazards regression to assess differences in the distributions of times until incidence of probable dementia or composite cognitive impairment among women grouped by baseline level of caffeine intake, adjusting for risk factors (hormone therapy, age, race, education, body mass index, sleep quality, depression, hypertension, prior cardiovascular disease, diabetes, smoking, and alcohol consumption). Women consuming above median levels (mean intake = 261mg) of caffeine intake for this group were less likely to develop incident dementia (hazard ratio = 0.74, 95% confidence interval [0.56, 0.99], p = .04) or any cognitive impairment (hazard ratio = 0.74, confidence interval [0.60, 0.91], p = .005) compared to those consuming below median amounts (mean intake = 64mg) of caffeine for this group. Our findings suggest lower odds of probable dementia or cognitive impairment in older women whose caffeine consumption was above median for this group and are consistent with the existing literature showing an inverse association between caffeine intake and age-related cognitive impairment. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps

PubMed Central

Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Lenoir, Jonathan; Abdulhak, Sylvain; Aeschimann, David; Dullinger, Stefan; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Guisan, Antoine; Pauli, Harald; Renaud, Julien; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Van Es, Jérémie; Vittoz, Pascal; Willner, Wolfgang; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2015-01-01

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognised at local scales, but its importance for plant species distributions at larger spatial scales has generally been ignored. Tree cover modifies the local abiotic conditions below the canopy, notably by reducing light availability, and thus, also the performance of species that are not adapted to low-light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains, by affecting colonisation probabilities and local extinction risks of herbs and shrubs. To assess the effect of tree cover at both the plot- and landscape-grain sizes (approximately 10-m and 1-km), we fit Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) for the plot-level distributions of 960 species of herbs and shrubs using 6,935 vegetation plots across the European Alps. We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) at both spatial grains for each species. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot- and landscape-grain tree cover on plot-level plant communities. Finally, the effects on species-specific elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species distributions under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved the model performance, with the probability of the presence of shade-tolerant species increasing with increasing tree cover, whereas shade-intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both the plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit most strongly at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot-level plant communities. With high tree cover, shade-intolerant species exhibited narrower elevational ranges than with low tree cover whereas shade-tolerant species showed wider elevational ranges at both limits. These findings suggest that forecasts of climate-related range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modified by tree cover dynamics. PMID:26290621

Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women.

PubMed

Cohen, Joel E; Kravdal, Øystein; Keilman, Nico

2011-07-19

In most societies, women at age 39 with higher levels of education have fewer children. To understand this association, we investigated the effects of childbearing on educational attainment and the effects of education on fertility in the 1964 birth cohort of Norwegian women. Using detailed annual data from ages 17 to 39, we estimated the probabilities of an additional birth, a change in educational level, and enrollment in the coming year, conditional on fertility history, educational level, and enrollment history at the beginning of each year. A simple model reproduced a declining gradient of children ever born with increasing educational level at age 39. When a counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of childbearing on educational progression or enrollment (without changing the estimated effects of education on childbearing), the simulated number of children ever born decreased very little with increasing completed educational level, contrary to data. However, when another counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of current educational level and enrollment on childbearing (without changing the estimated effects of childbearing on education), the simulated number of children ever born decreased with increasing completed educational level nearly as much as the decrease in the data. In summary, in these Norwegian data, childbearing impeded education much more than education impeded childbearing. These results suggest that women with advanced degrees have lower completed fertility on the average principally because women who have one or more children early are more likely to leave or not enter long educational tracks and never attain a high educational level.

Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women

PubMed Central

Cohen, Joel E.; Kravdal, Øystein; Keilman, Nico

2011-01-01

In most societies, women at age 39 with higher levels of education have fewer children. To understand this association, we investigated the effects of childbearing on educational attainment and the effects of education on fertility in the 1964 birth cohort of Norwegian women. Using detailed annual data from ages 17 to 39, we estimated the probabilities of an additional birth, a change in educational level, and enrollment in the coming year, conditional on fertility history, educational level, and enrollment history at the beginning of each year. A simple model reproduced a declining gradient of children ever born with increasing educational level at age 39. When a counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of childbearing on educational progression or enrollment (without changing the estimated effects of education on childbearing), the simulated number of children ever born decreased very little with increasing completed educational level, contrary to data. However, when another counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of current educational level and enrollment on childbearing (without changing the estimated effects of childbearing on education), the simulated number of children ever born decreased with increasing completed educational level nearly as much as the decrease in the data. In summary, in these Norwegian data, childbearing impeded education much more than education impeded childbearing. These results suggest that women with advanced degrees have lower completed fertility on the average principally because women who have one or more children early are more likely to leave or not enter long educational tracks and never attain a high educational level. PMID:21730138

The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

2013-12-01

The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution presented in this research, while the larger, low probability scenarios beyond this level are estimated to contribute a residual annual risk of approximately £0.45 million. These findings clearly demonstrate that uncertainty in future sea level rise is a vital component of coastal flood risk, and therefore, needs to be accounted for by decision makers when considering mitigation policies related to coastal flooding.

How FSH and AMH reflect probabilities of oocyte numbers in poor prognosis patients with small oocyte yields.

PubMed

Gleicher, Norbert; Darmon, Sarah K; Kushnir, Vitaly A; Weghofer, Andrea; Wang, Qi; Zhang, Lin; Albertini, David F; Barad, David H

2016-11-01

In poor prognosis patients undergoing in vitro fertilization, advance determinations of likely oocyte yields are especially important since oocyte numbers to large degree determine in vitro fertilization cycle outcomes. Based on baseline follicle stimulating hormone and anti-müllerian hormone levels at time of initial presentation, we here, therefore, determined at all ages the probabilities of obtaining 1-≥5 oocytes in a retrospective analysis of 1554 consecutive patients undergoing in vitro fertilization cycles at an academically affiliated private fertility center. At lowest levels (≤2.5 mIU/mL), Follicle stimulating hormone at all ages was highly predictable for ≥1 oocyte (88-96 %). Probabilities declined and diverged between ages with increasing follicle stimulating hormone, though narrowed again at high follicle stimulating hormone. Anti-Müllerian hormone demonstrated at higher levels (2.5-≥5 ng/ml) at all ages almost perfect probabilities (99-100 %). With declining anti-Müllerian hormone, age categories, however, increasingly diverged, though to lesser degree than follicle stimulating hormone. In poor prognosis patients, follicle stimulating hormone and anti-Müllerian hormone, thus, offer at different ages very specific probabilities for retrieval of 1-≥5 oocytes. Since oocyte numbers are associated with embryo numbers, and numbers of transferable embryos with live birth rates, here presented probability tables should facilitate improved prognostication of poor prognosis patients. Discrepancies in here reported probabilities between follicle stimulating hormone and anti-müllerian hormone also further define follicle stimulating hormone and anti-müllerian hormone in their respective abilities to represent functional ovarian reserve at different ages.

Out-of-pocket expenditure by private households for dental services - empirical evidence from Austria.

PubMed

Sanwald, Alice; Theurl, Engelbert

2016-12-01

Dental services differ from other health services in several dimensions. One important difference is that a substantial share of costs of dental services-especially costs beyond routine dental treatment-is paid directly by the patient out-of-pocket. This study analyses the socio-economic determinants of out-of-pocket expenditure for dental services (OOPE) in Austria at the household level. Cross-sectional information on OOPE and household characteristics provided by the Austrian household budget survey 2009/10 was analysed. A two-part model (Logit/GLM) and one-part GLM was applied. The probability of OOPE is strongly affected by the life cycle (structure) of the household. It is higher for higher age classes, higher income, and partially higher levels of education. The type of public insurance has an influence on expenditure probability while the existence of private health insurance has no significant effect. In contrast to the highly statistically significant coefficients in the first stage, the covariates of the second stage remain predominantly insignificant. According to the results, the level of expenditure is driven mainly by the level of education and income. The results of the one-part GLM confirm the results of the two-part model. The results allow new insights into the determinants of OOPE for dental care. The household level turns out to be an adequate basis to study the determinants of OOPE, although caution should be applied before jumping to conclusions for the individual level.

Improved detection probability of low level light and infrared image fusion system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Yuxiang; Fu, Rongguo; Zhang, Junju; Wang, Wencong; Chang, Benkang

2018-02-01

Low level light(LLL) image contains rich information on environment details, but is easily affected by the weather. In the case of smoke, rain, cloud or fog, much target information will lose. Infrared image, which is from the radiation produced by the object itself, can be "active" to obtain the target information in the scene. However, the image contrast and resolution is bad, the ability of the acquisition of target details is very poor, and the imaging mode does not conform to the human visual habit. The fusion of LLL and infrared image can make up for the deficiency of each sensor and give play to the advantages of single sensor. At first, we show the hardware design of fusion circuit. Then, through the recognition probability calculation of the target(one person) and the background image(trees), we find that the trees detection probability of LLL image is higher than that of the infrared image, and the person detection probability of the infrared image is obviously higher than that of LLL image. The detection probability of fusion image for one person and trees is higher than that of single detector. Therefore, image fusion can significantly enlarge recognition probability and improve detection efficiency.

Probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature of the zero level surface of a random function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannay, J. H.

2018-04-01

A rather natural construction for a smooth random surface in space is the level surface of value zero, or ‘nodal’ surface f(x,y,z)  =  0, of a (real) random function f; the interface between positive and negative regions of the function. A physically significant local attribute at a point of a curved surface is its Gaussian curvature (the product of its principal curvatures) because, when integrated over the surface it gives the Euler characteristic. Here the probability distribution for the Gaussian curvature at a random point on the nodal surface f  =  0 is calculated for a statistically homogeneous (‘stationary’) and isotropic zero mean Gaussian random function f. Capitalizing on the isotropy, a ‘fixer’ device for axes supplies the probability distribution directly as a multiple integral. Its evaluation yields an explicit algebraic function with a simple average. Indeed, this average Gaussian curvature has long been known. For a non-zero level surface instead of the nodal one, the probability distribution is not fully tractable, but is supplied as an integral expression.

Prevalence of food sensitization and probable food allergy among adults in India: the EuroPrevall INCO study.

PubMed

Mahesh, P A; Wong, Gary W K; Ogorodova, L; Potts, J; Leung, T F; Fedorova, O; Holla, Amrutha D; Fernandez-Rivas, M; Clare Mills, E N; Kummeling, I; Versteeg, S A; van Ree, R; Yazdanbakhsh, M; Burney, P

2016-07-01

Data are lacking regarding the prevalence of food sensitization and probable food allergy among general population in India. We report the prevalence of sensitization and probable food allergy to 24 common foods among adults from general population in Karnataka, South India. The study was conducted in two stages: a screening study and a case-control study. A total of 11 791 adults in age group 20-54 were randomly sampled from general population in South India and answered a screening questionnaire. A total of 588 subjects (236 cases and 352 controls) participated in the case-control study involving a detailed questionnaire and specific IgE estimation for 24 common foods. A high level of sensitization (26.5%) was observed for most of the foods in the general population, higher than that observed among adults in Europe, except for those foods that cross-react with birch pollen. Most of the sensitization was observed in subjects who had total IgE above the median IgE level. A high level of cross-reactivity was observed among different pollens and foods and among foods. The prevalence of probable food allergy (self-reports of adverse symptoms after the consumption of food and specific IgE to the same food) was 1.2%, which was mainly accounted for cow's milk (0.5%) and apple (0.5%). Very high levels of sensitization were observed for most foods, including those not commonly consumed in the general population. For the levels of sensitization, the prevalence of probable food allergy was low. This disassociation needs to be further explored in future studies. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of short term and long term Extremely Low Frequency Magnetic Field on depressive disorder in mice: Involvement of nitric oxide pathway.

PubMed

Madjid Ansari, Alireza; Farzampour, Shahrokh; Sadr, Ali; Shekarchi, Babak; Majidzadeh-A, Keivan

2016-02-01

Previous reports on the possible effects of Extremely Low Frequency Magnetic Fields (ELF MF) on mood have been paradoxical in different settings while no study has yet been conducted on animal behavior. In addition, it was shown that ELF MF exposure makes an increase in brain nitric oxide level. Therefore, in the current study, we aimed to assess the possible effect(s) of ELF MF exposure on mice Forced Swimming Test (FST) and evaluate the probable role of the increased level of nitric oxide in the observed behavior. Male adult mice NMRI were recruited to investigate the short term and long term ELF MF exposure (0.5 mT and 50 Hz, single 2h and 2 weeks 2h a day). Locomotor behavior was assessed by using open-field test (OFT) followed by FST to evaluate the immobility time. Accordingly, NΩ-nitro-l-arginine methyl ester 30 mg/kg was used to exert anti-depressant like effect. According to the results, short term exposure did not alter the immobility time, whereas long term exposure significantly reduces immobility time (p<0.01). However, it was revealed that the locomotion did not differ among all experimental groups. Short term exposure reversed the anti-depressant like effect resulting from 30 mg/kg of NΩ-nitro-l-arginine methyl ester (p<0.01). It has been concluded that long term exposure could alter the depressive disorder in mice, whereas short term exposure has no significant effect. Also, reversing the anti-depressant activity of L-NAME indicates a probable increase in the brain nitric oxide. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature.

PubMed

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C; Dey, Daniel; Muzika, Rose Marie

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature.

The theory, direction, and magnitude of ecosystem fire probability as constrained by precipitation and temperature

PubMed Central

Guyette, Richard; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Dey, Daniel

2017-01-01

The effects of climate on wildland fire confronts society across a range of different ecosystems. Water and temperature affect the combustion dynamics, irrespective of whether those are associated with carbon fueled motors or ecosystems, but through different chemical, physical, and biological processes. We use an ecosystem combustion equation developed with the physical chemistry of atmospheric variables to estimate and simulate fire probability and mean fire interval (MFI). The calibration of ecosystem fire probability with basic combustion chemistry and physics offers a quantitative method to address wildland fire in addition to the well-studied forcing factors such as topography, ignition, and vegetation. We develop a graphic analysis tool for estimating climate forced fire probability with temperature and precipitation based on an empirical assessment of combustion theory and fire prediction in ecosystems. Climate-affected fire probability for any period, past or future, is estimated with given temperature and precipitation. A graphic analyses of wildland fire dynamics driven by climate supports a dialectic in hydrologic processes that affect ecosystem combustion: 1) the water needed by plants to produce carbon bonds (fuel) and 2) the inhibition of successful reactant collisions by water molecules (humidity and fuel moisture). These two postulates enable a classification scheme for ecosystems into three or more climate categories using their position relative to change points defined by precipitation in combustion dynamics equations. Three classifications of combustion dynamics in ecosystems fire probability include: 1) precipitation insensitive, 2) precipitation unstable, and 3) precipitation sensitive. All three classifications interact in different ways with variable levels of temperature. PMID:28704457

Collective efficacy, family attachment, and urban adolescent suicide attempts.

PubMed

Maimon, David; Browning, Christopher R; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne

2010-09-01

The suicide rate among American adolescents between the ages of 14-25 has dramatically increased during the last 50 years, and this fact has been the focus of extensive social-scientific investigation. To date, however, research focusing on the joint effects of mental health, family, and contextual-level predictors on adolescents' suicidal behaviors is scarce. Drawing on Durkheim's classic macro-level approach to suicide and collective efficacy theory, we use data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) to examine the effect of informal social controls on adolescents' suicide attempts. Analyzing reports from 990 youth, we examine the hypothesis that neighborhood-level collective efficacy and family-level integration and social control independently affect suicide attempts. We also examine the extent to which they interact in their effects on suicidal behavior. Overall, results from multilevel logit models support the Durkheimian expectation that family attachment reduces the probability that adolescents will attempt suicide. The effect of collective efficacy is interactive in nature. Specifically, we find that collective efficacy significantly enhances the protective effect of family attachment and support on adolescent suicidal behaviors. We discuss findings within the context of social control theory.

Locally rare species influence grassland ecosystem multifunctionality

PubMed Central

Manning, Peter; Prati, Daniel; Gossner, Martin M.; Alt, Fabian; Arndt, Hartmut; Baumgartner, Vanessa; Binkenstein, Julia; Birkhofer, Klaus; Blaser, Stefan; Blüthgen, Nico; Boch, Steffen; Böhm, Stefan; Börschig, Carmen; Buscot, Francois; Diekötter, Tim; Heinze, Johannes; Hölzel, Norbert; Jung, Kirsten; Klaus, Valentin H.; Klein, Alexandra-Maria; Kleinebecker, Till; Klemmer, Sandra; Krauss, Jochen; Lange, Markus; Morris, E. Kathryn; Müller, Jörg; Oelmann, Yvonne; Overmann, Jörg; Pašalić, Esther; Renner, Swen C.; Rillig, Matthias C.; Schaefer, H. Martin; Schloter, Michael; Schmitt, Barbara; Schöning, Ingo; Schrumpf, Marion; Sikorski, Johannes; Socher, Stephanie A.; Solly, Emily F.; Sonnemann, Ilja; Sorkau, Elisabeth; Steckel, Juliane; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stempfhuber, Barbara; Tschapka, Marco; Türke, Manfred; Venter, Paul; Weiner, Christiane N.; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Werner, Michael; Westphal, Catrin; Wilcke, Wolfgang; Wolters, Volkmar; Wubet, Tesfaye; Wurst, Susanne; Fischer, Markus; Allan, Eric

2016-01-01

Species diversity promotes the delivery of multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality). However, the relative functional importance of rare and common species in driving the biodiversity–multifunctionality relationship remains unknown. We studied the relationship between the diversity of rare and common species (according to their local abundances and across nine different trophic groups), and multifunctionality indices derived from 14 ecosystem functions on 150 grasslands across a land-use intensity (LUI) gradient. The diversity of above- and below-ground rare species had opposite effects, with rare above-ground species being associated with high levels of multifunctionality, probably because their effects on different functions did not trade off against each other. Conversely, common species were only related to average, not high, levels of multifunctionality, and their functional effects declined with LUI. Apart from the community-level effects of diversity, we found significant positive associations between the abundance of individual species and multifunctionality in 6% of the species tested. Species-specific functional effects were best predicted by their response to LUI: species that declined in abundance with land use intensification were those associated with higher levels of multifunctionality. Our results highlight the importance of rare species for ecosystem multifunctionality and help guiding future conservation priorities. PMID:27114572

Locally rare species influence grassland ecosystem multifunctionality.

PubMed

Soliveres, Santiago; Manning, Peter; Prati, Daniel; Gossner, Martin M; Alt, Fabian; Arndt, Hartmut; Baumgartner, Vanessa; Binkenstein, Julia; Birkhofer, Klaus; Blaser, Stefan; Blüthgen, Nico; Boch, Steffen; Böhm, Stefan; Börschig, Carmen; Buscot, Francois; Diekötter, Tim; Heinze, Johannes; Hölzel, Norbert; Jung, Kirsten; Klaus, Valentin H; Klein, Alexandra-Maria; Kleinebecker, Till; Klemmer, Sandra; Krauss, Jochen; Lange, Markus; Morris, E Kathryn; Müller, Jörg; Oelmann, Yvonne; Overmann, Jörg; Pašalić, Esther; Renner, Swen C; Rillig, Matthias C; Schaefer, H Martin; Schloter, Michael; Schmitt, Barbara; Schöning, Ingo; Schrumpf, Marion; Sikorski, Johannes; Socher, Stephanie A; Solly, Emily F; Sonnemann, Ilja; Sorkau, Elisabeth; Steckel, Juliane; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stempfhuber, Barbara; Tschapka, Marco; Türke, Manfred; Venter, Paul; Weiner, Christiane N; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Werner, Michael; Westphal, Catrin; Wilcke, Wolfgang; Wolters, Volkmar; Wubet, Tesfaye; Wurst, Susanne; Fischer, Markus; Allan, Eric

2016-05-19

Species diversity promotes the delivery of multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality). However, the relative functional importance of rare and common species in driving the biodiversity-multifunctionality relationship remains unknown. We studied the relationship between the diversity of rare and common species (according to their local abundances and across nine different trophic groups), and multifunctionality indices derived from 14 ecosystem functions on 150 grasslands across a land-use intensity (LUI) gradient. The diversity of above- and below-ground rare species had opposite effects, with rare above-ground species being associated with high levels of multifunctionality, probably because their effects on different functions did not trade off against each other. Conversely, common species were only related to average, not high, levels of multifunctionality, and their functional effects declined with LUI. Apart from the community-level effects of diversity, we found significant positive associations between the abundance of individual species and multifunctionality in 6% of the species tested. Species-specific functional effects were best predicted by their response to LUI: species that declined in abundance with land use intensification were those associated with higher levels of multifunctionality. Our results highlight the importance of rare species for ecosystem multifunctionality and help guiding future conservation priorities. © 2016 The Author(s).

Collective Efficacy, Family Attachment, and Urban Adolescent Suicide Attempts

PubMed Central

Maimon, David; Browning, Christopher R.; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne

2011-01-01

The suicide rate among American adolescents between the ages of 14–25 has dramatically increased during the last 50 years, and this fact has been the focus of extensive social-scientific investigation. To date, however, research focusing on the joint effects of mental health, family, and contextual-level predictors on adolescents’ suicidal behaviors is scarce. Drawing on Durkheim’s classic macro-level approach to suicide and collective efficacy theory, we use data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) to examine the effect of informal social controls on adolescents’ suicide attempts. Analyzing reports from 990 youth, we examine the hypothesis that neighborhood-level collective efficacy and family-level integration and social control independently affect suicide attempts. We also examine the extent to which they interact in their effects on suicidal behavior. Overall, results from multilevel logit models support the Durkheimian expectation that family attachment reduces the probability that adolescents will attempt suicide. The effect of collective efficacy is interactive in nature. Specifically, we find that collective efficacy significantly enhances the protective effect of family attachment and support on adolescent suicidal behaviors. We discuss findings within the context of social control theory. PMID:20943592

Equal health, equal work? The role of disability benefits in employment after controlling for health status.

PubMed

Frutos, Eva Maria Lopez; Castello, Judit Vall

2015-04-01

In Spain, an individual can be considered legally disabled in one of the following two ways: by either receiving a disability support benefit and/or holding a certificate of disability. Having at least one of these official sanctions entitles the disabled person to a number of financial and tax advantages. However, only support benefits entail a monthly allowance and, at the same time, the individual is required to undertake a different job to that of his/her previous one. To jointly estimate (after controlling for the health characteristics of the disabling condition and for unobserved factors) the probability of receiving disability benefits and the probability of working, we make use of a newly released database of individuals with a certificate of disability. Additionally, we exploit the rich set of health measures that this database also provides. Our results show that the probability of working is 5% lower (average treatment effect, ATE) for those disabled individuals receiving benefits. However, when we perform the estimation for individuals with differing degrees of disability, the disincentive effects of the benefits are only significant for individuals with the mildest level of disability (33-44%) i.e. those who are on the threshold of being disabled.

Habitat fragmentation effects on annual survival of the federally protected eastern indigo snake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breininger, D.R.; Mazerolle, M.J.; Bolt, M.R.; Legare, M.L.; Drese, J.H.; Hines, J.E.

2012-01-01

The eastern indigo snake (Drymarchon couperi) is a federally listed species, most recently threatened by habitat loss and habitat degradation. In an effort to estimate snake survival, a total of 103 individuals (59 males, 44 females) were followed using radio-tracking from January 1998 to March 2004 in three landscape types that had increasing levels of habitat fragmentation: (1) conservation cores; (2) conservation areas along highways; (3) suburbs. Because of a large number of radio-tracking locations underground for which the state of snakes (i.e. alive or dead) could not be assessed, we employed a multistate approach to model snake apparent survival and encounter probability of live and dead snakes. We predicted that male snakes in suburbs would have the lowest annual survival. We found a transmitter implantation effect on snake encounter probability, as snakes implanted on a given occasion had a lower encounter probability on the next visit compared with snakes not implanted on the previous occasion. Our results indicated that adult eastern indigo snakes have relatively high survival in conservation core areas, but greatly reduced survival in conservation areas along highways and in suburbs. These findings indicate that habitat fragmentation is likely to be the critical factor for species' persistence.

Prevalence and associated factors of Internet gaming disorder among community dwelling adults in Macao, China.

PubMed

Wu, Anise M S; Chen, Juliet Honglei; Tong, Kwok-Kit; Yu, Shu; Lau, Joseph T F

2018-03-01

Background and aims Internet gaming disorder (IGD) has been mainly studied among adolescents, and no research to date has examined its prevalence in general Chinese adult populations. This study estimated the prevalence of probable IGD in community-dwelling adults in Macao, China. Associations between IGD and psychological distress (i.e., depression and anxiety) as well as IGD and character strength (i.e., psychological resilience and purpose in life) were also tested. Methods A random, representative sample of 1,000 Chinese residents (44% males; mean age = 40.0) was surveyed using a telephone poll design from October to November 2016. Results The estimated prevalence of probable IGD was 2.0% of the overall sample and 4.3% among the recent gamers (n = 473), with no statistically significant sex and age effects observed (p > .05). The two most prevalent IGD symptoms were mood modification and continued engagement, despite negative consequences. Probable IGD respondents were more vulnerable to psychological distress (25.0% and 45.0% for moderate or above levels of depression and anxiety, respectively) than their non-IGD counterparts. They also reported a lower level of psychological resilience than non-IGD respondents. No significant buffering effect of the two character strength variables on the distress-IGD relationship was found. Discussion and conclusions These results provide empirical evidence that IGD is a mental health threat not only to adolescents but also to adults. IGD was significantly associated with psychological distress, which should be addressed in conjunction with IGD symptoms in interventions. Inclusion of gamers of both sexes and different age groups in future prevention programs is also recommended.

Cost effectiveness of mirabegron compared with tolterodine extended release for the treatment of adults with overactive bladder in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Aballéa, Samuel; Maman, Khaled; Thokagevistk, Katia; Nazir, Jameel; Odeyemi, Isaac A O; Hakimi, Zalmai; Garnham, Andy; Toumi, Mondher

2015-02-01

Overactive bladder (OAB) is highly prevalent and is associated with considerable morbidity and reduced health-related quality of life. β3-adrenergic receptor (β3-AR) stimulation is a novel alternative to antimuscarinic therapy for OAB. The objective of this analysis was to assess the cost effectiveness of the β3-AR agonist mirabegron relative to tolterodine extended release (ER) in patients with OAB from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. A Markov model was developed to simulate the management, course of disease, and effect of complications in OAB patients over a period of 5 years. Transition probabilities for symptom severity levels and probabilities of adverse events were estimated from the results of the randomised, double-blind SCORPIO trial in 1,987 patients with OAB. Other model inputs were derived from the literature and on assumptions based on clinical experience. Total 5-year costs per patient were £1,645.62 for mirabegron 50 mg/day and £1,607.75 for tolterodine ER 4 mg/day. Mirabegron was associated with a gain of 0.009 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) with an additional cost of £37.88. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £4,386/QALY gained. In deterministic sensitivity analyses in the general OAB population and several subgroups, ICERs remained below the generally accepted willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20,000/QALY gained. The probability of mirabegron 50 mg being cost effective relative to tolterodine ER 4 mg was 89.4 % at the same WTP threshold. Mirabegron 50 mg/day is likely to be cost effective compared with tolterodine ER 4 mg/day for adult patients with OAB from a UK NHS perspective.

Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage.

PubMed

Kopp, Robert E; Simons, Frederik J; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Maloof, Adam C; Oppenheimer, Michael

2009-12-17

With polar temperatures approximately 3-5 degrees C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (approximately 125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1-2 degrees C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (>or=-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr(-1) but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr(-1). Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.

The probability of growth of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked salmon and tryptic soy broth as affected by salt, smoke compound, and storage temperature.

PubMed

Hwang, Cheng-An

2009-05-01

The objectives of this study were to examine and model the probability of growth of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked salmon containing salt and smoke (phenol) compound and stored at various temperatures. A growth probability model was developed, and the model was compared to a model developed from tryptic soy broth (TSB) to assess the possibility of using TSB as a substitute for salmon. A 6-strain mixture of L. monocytogenes was inoculated into minced cooked salmon and TSB containing 0-10% NaCl and 0-34 ppm phenol to levels of 10(2-3) cfu/g, and the samples were vacuum-packed and stored at 0--25 degrees C for up to 42 days. A total 32 treatments, each with 16 samples, selected by central composite designs were tested. A logistic regression was used to model the probability of growth of L. monocytogenes as a function of concentrations of salt and phenol, and storage temperature. Resulted models showed that the probabilities of growth of L. monocytogenes in both salmon and TSB decreased when the salt and/or phenol concentrations increased, and at lower storage temperatures. In general, the growth probabilities of L. monocytogenes were affected more profoundly by salt and storage temperature than by phenol. The growth probabilities of L. monocytogenes estimated by the TSB model were higher than those by the salmon model at the same salt/phenol concentrations and storage temperatures. The growth probabilities predicted by the salmon and TSB models were comparable at higher storage temperatures, indicating the potential use of TSB as a model system to substitute salmon in studying the growth behavior of L. monocytogenes may only be suitable when the temperatures of interest are in higher storage temperatures (e.g., >12 degrees C). The model for salmon demonstrated the effects of salt, phenol, and storage temperature and their interactions on the growth probabilities of L. monocytogenes, and may be used to determine the growth probability of L. monocytogenes in smoked seafood.

End-To-End Risk Assesment: From Genes and Protein to Acceptable Radiation Risks for Mars Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Schimmerling, Walter

2000-01-01

The human exploration of Mars will impose unavoidable health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and possibly solar particle events (SPE). It is the goal of NASA's Space Radiation Health Program to develop the capability to predict health risks with significant accuracy to ensure that risks are well below acceptable levels and to allow for mitigation approaches to be effective at reasonable costs. End-to-End risk assessment is the approach being followed to understand proton and heavy ion damage at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels in order to predict the probability of the major health risk including cancer, neurological disorders, hereditary effects, cataracts, and acute radiation sickness and to develop countermeasures for mitigating risks.

Phase II Study of a HER-2/neu Intracellular Domain Peptide-Based Vaccine Administered to Stage IV HER2 Positive Breast Cancer Patients Receiving Trastuzumab

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-01

7 2 7 3 Lymphopenia 6 2 6 2 Leukocytes 5 1 5 2 Hypocalcemia 5 1 5 2 Fatigue 5 1 4 1 All AE Possibly, Probably, or...been found to have anti-tumor effects in tumor-bearing animals. We assessed the levels of multiple cytokines secreted from PBMN collected 1 month

Transcriptional Regulation of Apolipoprotein A5 Gene Expression by the Nuclear Receptor ROR alpha

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Genoux, Annelise; Dehondt, Helene; Helleboid-Chapman, Audrey

2004-10-01

Apolipoprotein A5 has recently been identified as a crucial determinant of plasma triglyceride levels. Our results showed that RORa up-regulates human APOA5 but has no effect on mouse apoa5 promoter. These data suggest an additional important physiological role for RORa in the regulation of genes involved in plasma triglyceride homeostasis in human and probably in the development of atherosclerosis

The effects of using ground water to maintain water levels of Cedar Lake, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLeod, R.S.

1980-01-01

There were no identifiable changes in measured physical and chemical characteristics of lake water during sustained pumping of ground water into the lake, nor were there identifiable changes in the number or makeup of the phytoplankton community. Differences in physical and chemical characteristics of lake water and ground water added to the lake probably were not great enough to cause changes within the lake.

Macromolecular Crystal Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snell, Edward H.; Borgstahl, Gloria E. O.; Bellamy, Henry D.; Curreri, Peter A. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

There are many ways of judging a good crystal. Which we use depends on the qualities we seek. For gemstones size, clarity and impurity levels (color) are paramount. For the semiconductor industry purity is probably the most important quality. For the structural crystallographer the primary desideratum is the somewhat more subtle concept of internal order. In this chapter we discuss the effect of internal order (or the lack of it) on the crystal's diffraction properties.

Transition probabilities in neutron-rich Se,8684

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litzinger, J.; Blazhev, A.; Dewald, A.; Didierjean, F.; Duchêne, G.; Fransen, C.; Lozeva, R.; Sieja, K.; Verney, D.; de Angelis, G.; Bazzacco, D.; Birkenbach, B.; Bottoni, S.; Bracco, A.; Braunroth, T.; Cederwall, B.; Corradi, L.; Crespi, F. C. L.; Désesquelles, P.; Eberth, J.; Ellinger, E.; Farnea, E.; Fioretto, E.; Gernhäuser, R.; Goasduff, A.; Görgen, A.; Gottardo, A.; Grebosz, J.; Hackstein, M.; Hess, H.; Ibrahim, F.; Jolie, J.; Jungclaus, A.; Kolos, K.; Korten, W.; Leoni, S.; Lunardi, S.; Maj, A.; Menegazzo, R.; Mengoni, D.; Michelagnoli, C.; Mijatovic, T.; Million, B.; Möller, O.; Modamio, V.; Montagnoli, G.; Montanari, D.; Morales, A. I.; Napoli, D. R.; Niikura, M.; Pollarolo, G.; Pullia, A.; Quintana, B.; Recchia, F.; Reiter, P.; Rosso, D.; Sahin, E.; Salsac, M. D.; Scarlassara, F.; Söderström, P.-A.; Stefanini, A. M.; Stezowski, O.; Szilner, S.; Theisen, Ch.; Valiente Dobón, J. J.; Vandone, V.; Vogt, A.

2015-12-01

Reduced quadrupole transition probabilities for low-lying transitions in neutron-rich Se,8684 are investigated with a recoil distance Doppler shift (RDDS) experiment. The experiment was performed at the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro using the Cologne Plunger device for the RDDS technique and the AGATA Demonstrator array for the γ -ray detection coupled to the PRISMA magnetic spectrometer for an event-by-event particle identification. In 86Se the level lifetime of the yrast 21+ state and an upper limit for the lifetime of the 41+ state are determined for the first time. The results of 86Se are in agreement with previously reported predictions of large-scale shell-model calculations using Ni78-I and Ni78-II effective interactions. In addition, intrinsic shape parameters of lowest yrast states in 86Se are calculated. In semimagic 84Se level lifetimes of the yrast 41+ and 61+ states are determined for the first time. Large-scale shell-model calculations using effective interactions Ni78-II, JUN45, jj4b, and jj4pna are performed. The calculations describe B (E 2 ;21+→01+) and B (E 2 ;61+→41+) fairly well and point out problems in reproducing the experimental B (E 2 ;41+→21+) .

Characterization of Cq3, a quantitative trait locus that controls plasma cholesterol and phospholipid levels in mice.

PubMed

Suto, Jun-ichi

2006-04-01

Cq3 was identified in C57BL/6J (B6) x KK-Ay F2 mice as a quantitative trait locus (QTL) that controls plasma cholesterol and phospholipid levels, and normolipidemic B6 allele was associated with increased lipids. Cq3 was statistically significant in F2-a/a, but not in F2-Ay/a; probably because the Cq3 effect was obscured by introduction of the Ay allele, which in itself has a strong hyperlipidemic effect. Because the peak LOD score for Cq3 was identified near D3Mit102 (49.7 cM) on chromosome 3, linkage analyses with microsatellite markers located at 49.7 cM were performed in KK x RR F2, B6 x RR F2, and KK x CF1 F2. However, even a suggestive QTL was not identified in any of the three F2. By testing all pairs of marker loci, I found a significant interaction between Cq3 and the Apoa2 locus, and F2 mice with the Apoa2(KK)/Apoa2(KK); D3Mit102(B6)/D3Mit102(B6) genotype had significantly higher cholesterol levels than did F2 mice with other genotypes. The results showed that the ;round-robin' strategy was not always applicable to the search for QTL genes; probably because specific gene-to-gene interaction limited the validity of the strategy to the utmost extent.

Current understanding of the mechanism of benzene-induced leukemia in humans: implications for risk assessment

PubMed Central

McHale, Cliona M.; Zhang, Luoping; Smith, Martyn T.

2012-01-01

Benzene causes acute myeloid leukemia and probably other hematological malignancies. As benzene also causes hematotoxicity even in workers exposed to levels below the US permissible occupational exposure limit of 1 part per million, further assessment of the health risks associated with its exposure, particularly at low levels, is needed. Here, we describe the probable mechanism by which benzene induces leukemia involving the targeting of critical genes and pathways through the induction of genetic, chromosomal or epigenetic abnormalities and genomic instability, in a hematopoietic stem cell (HSC); stromal cell dysregulation; apoptosis of HSCs and stromal cells and altered proliferation and differentiation of HSCs. These effects modulated by benzene-induced oxidative stress, aryl hydrocarbon receptor dysregulation and reduced immunosurveillance, lead to the generation of leukemic stem cells and subsequent clonal evolution to leukemia. A mode of action (MOA) approach to the risk assessment of benzene was recently proposed. This approach is limited, however, by the challenges of defining a simple stochastic MOA of benzene-induced leukemogenesis and of identifying relevant and quantifiable parameters associated with potential key events. An alternative risk assessment approach is the application of toxicogenomics and systems biology in human populations, animals and in vitro models of the HSC stem cell niche, exposed to a range of levels of benzene. These approaches will inform our understanding of the mechanisms of benzene toxicity and identify additional biomarkers of exposure, early effect and susceptibility useful for risk assessment. PMID:22166497

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975-2010, Featuring Prevalence of Comorbidity and Impact on Survival among Persons with Lung, Colorectal, Breast or Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Edwards, Brenda K.; Noone, Anne-Michelle; Mariotto, Angela B.; Simard, Edgar P.; Boscoe, Francis P.; Henley, S. Jane; Jemal, Ahmedin; Cho, Hyunsoon; Anderson, Robert N.; Kohler, Betsy A.; Eheman, Christie R.; Ward, Elizabeth M.

2014-01-01

Background The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updates on cancer incidence and death rates and trends in these outcomes for the U.S. This year’s report includes the prevalence of comorbidity at time of first cancer diagnosis among patients with lung, colorectal, breast or prostate cancer and the survival among cancer patients based on comorbidity level. Methods Data on cancer incidence were obtained from NCI, CDC, and NAACCR, and on mortality from CDC. Long- (1975/92-2010) and short- (2001-2010) term trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancers among men and among women were examined by joinpoint analysis. Through linkage with Medicare claims, the prevalence of comorbidity among cancer patients diagnosed between 1992 through 2005 residing in 11 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) areas were estimated and compared to those among a 5% random sample of cancer-free Medicare beneficiaries. Among cancer patients, survival and the probabilities of dying of their cancer and of other causes by comorbidity level, age, and stage were calculated. Results Death rates continued to decline for all cancers combined for men and women of all major racial and ethnic groups and for most major cancer sites; rates for both sexes combined decreased by 1.5% per year from 2001 through 2010. Overall incidence rates decreased in men and stabilized in women. The prevalence of comorbidity was similar among cancer-free Medicare beneficiaries (31.8%), breast cancer patients (32.2%), and prostate cancer patients (30.5%), highest among lung cancer patients (52.8%), and intermediate among colorectal cancer patients (40.7%). Among all cancer patients and especially for patients diagnosed with local and regional disease, age and comorbidity level were important influences on the probability of dying of other causes and consequently on overall survival. For patients diagnosed with distant disease, the probability of dying of cancer was much higher than the probability of dying of other causes, and age and comorbidity had a smaller effect on overall survival. Conclusions Cancer death rates in the U.S. continue to decline. Estimates of survival that include the probability of dying of cancer and other causes stratified by comorbidity level, age and stage can provide important information to facilitate treatment decisions. PMID:24343171

Modeling the effect of toe clipping on treefrog survival: Beyond the return rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waddle, J.H.; Rice, K.G.; Mazzotti, F.J.; Percival, H.F.

2008-01-01

Some studies have described a negative effect of toe clipping on return rates of marked anurans, but the return rate is limited in that it does not account for heterogeneity of capture probabilities. We used open population mark-recapture models to estimate both apparent survival (ϕ) and the recapture probability (p) of two treefrog species individually marked by clipping 2–4 toes. We used information-theoretic model selection to examine the effect of toe clipping on survival while accounting for variation in capture probability. The model selection results indicate strong support for an effect of toe clipping on survival of Green Treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) and only limited support for an effect of toe clipping on capture probability. We estimate there was a mean absolute decrease in survival of 5.02% and 11.16% for Green Treefrogs with three and four toes removed, respectively, compared to individuals with just two toes removed. Results for Squirrel Treefrogs (Hyla squirella) indicate little support for an effect of toe clipping on survival but may indicate some support for a negative effect on capture probability. We believe that the return rate alone should not be used to examine survival of marked animals because constant capture probability must be assumed, and our examples demonstrate how capture probability may vary over time and among groups. Mark-recapture models provide a method for estimating the effect of toe clipping on anuran survival in situations where unique marks are applied.

Morphology Effect on Proton Dynamics in Nafion® 117 and Sulfonated Polyether Ether Ketone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leong, Jun Xing; Diño, Wilson Agerico; Ahmad, Azizan; Daud, Wan Ramli Wan; Kasai, Hideaki

2016-09-01

We report results of our experimental and theoretical studies on the dynamics of proton conductivity in Nafion® 117 and self-fabricated sulfonated polyether ether ketone (SPEEK) membranes. Knowing that the presence of water molecules in the diffusion process results in a lower energy barrier, we determined the diffusion barriers and corresponding tunneling probabilities of Nafion® 117 and SPEEK system using a simple theoretical model that excludes the medium (water molecules) in the initial calculations. We then propose an equation that relates the membrane conductivity to the tunneling probability. We recover the effect of the medium by introducing a correction term into the proposed equation, which takes into account the effect of the proton diffusion distance and the hydration level. We have also experimentally verified that the proposed equation correctly explain the difference in conductivity between Nafion® 117 and SPEEK. We found that membranes that are to be operated in low hydration environments (high temperatures) need to be designed with short diffusion distances to enhance and maintain high conductivity.

Investigating the poverty-obesity paradox in Europe.

PubMed

Salmasi, Luca; Celidoni, Martina

2017-08-01

This paper investigates the effect of income- and wealth-based poverty on the probability of being obese for the elderly in Europe by analysing data drawn from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement (SHARE) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We use early-life economic conditions and regional circumstances as instruments for poverty later in life to account for endogeneity issues. After controlling for a large set of covariates at the individual, household, regional and country level, the results show that poverty significantly increases the probability of being obese and the Body Mass Index (BMI), for men and women. The results show that, accounting for endogeneity with a bivariate probit model, poor individuals are from 10 to 20% points more likely to be obese than non-poor individuals. The effect on BMI ranges from 0.295 points (2.39 kg) to 0.395 points (2.75 kg). These results are robust to a series of checks and suggest that anti-poverty interventions might have positive side effects in terms of reducing food-related health inequalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The investigation of the relationship between probability of suicide and reasons for living in psychiatric inpatients

PubMed Central

Eskiyurt, Reyhan; Ozkan, Birgul

2017-01-01

Aim: This study was carried out to determine the reasons of the suicide probability and reasons for living of the inpatients hospitalized at the psychiatry clinic and to analyze the relationship between them. Materials and Methods: The sample of the study consisted of 192 patients who were hospitalized in psychiatric clinics between February and May 2016 and who agreed to participate in the study. In collecting data, personal information form, suicide probability scale (SPS), reasons for living inventory (RFL), and Beck's depression inventory (BDI) were used. Stepwise regression method was used to determine the factors that predict suicide probability. Results: In the study, as a result of analyses made, the median score on the SPS was found 76.0, the median score on the RFL was found 137.0, the median score on the BDI of the patients was found 13.5, and it was found that patients with a high probability of suicide had less reasons for living and that their depression levels were very high. As a result of stepwise regression analysis, it was determined that suicidal ideation, reasons for living, maltreatment, education level, age, and income status were the predictors of suicide probability (F = 61.125; P < 0.001). Discussion: It was found that the patients who hospitalized in the psychiatric clinic have high suicide probability and the reasons of living are strong predictors of suicide probability in accordance with the literature. PMID:29497185

Treatment planning for prostate focal laser ablation in the face of needle placement uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cepek, Jeremy, E-mail: jcepek@robarts.ca; Fenster, Aaron; Lindner, Uri

2014-01-15

Purpose: To study the effect of needle placement uncertainty on the expected probability of achieving complete focal target destruction in focal laser ablation (FLA) of prostate cancer. Methods: Using a simplified model of prostate cancer focal target, and focal laser ablation region shapes, Monte Carlo simulations of needle placement error were performed to estimate the probability of completely ablating a region of target tissue. Results: Graphs of the probability of complete focal target ablation are presented over clinically relevant ranges of focal target sizes and shapes, ablation region sizes, and levels of needle placement uncertainty. In addition, a table ismore » provided for estimating the maximum target size that is treatable. The results predict that targets whose length is at least 5 mm smaller than the diameter of each ablation region can be confidently ablated using, at most, four laser fibers if the standard deviation in each component of needle placement error is less than 3 mm. However, targets larger than this (i.e., near to or exceeding the diameter of each ablation region) require more careful planning. This process is facilitated by using the table provided. Conclusions: The probability of completely ablating a focal target using FLA is sensitive to the level of needle placement uncertainty, especially as the target length approaches and becomes greater than the diameter of ablated tissue that each individual laser fiber can achieve. The results of this work can be used to help determine individual patient eligibility for prostate FLA, to guide the planning of prostate FLA, and to quantify the clinical benefit of using advanced systems for accurate needle delivery for this treatment modality.« less

Minimizing predation risk in a landscape of multiple predators: effects on the spatial distribution of African ungulates.

PubMed

Thaker, Maria; Vanak, Abi T; Owen, Cailey R; Ogden, Monika B; Niemann, Sophie M; Slotow, Rob

2011-02-01

Studies that focus on single predator-prey interactions can be inadequate for understanding antipredator responses in multi-predator systems. Yet there is still a general lack of information about the strategies of prey to minimize predation risk from multiple predators at the landscape level. Here we examined the distribution of seven African ungulate species in the fenced Karongwe Game Reserve (KGR), South Africa, as a function of predation risk from all large carnivore species (lion, leopard, cheetah, African wild dog, and spotted hyena). Using observed kill data, we generated ungulate-specific predictions of relative predation risk and of riskiness of habitats. To determine how ungulates minimize predation risk at the landscape level, we explicitly tested five hypotheses consisting of strategies that reduce the probability of encountering predators, and the probability of being killed. All ungulate species avoided risky habitats, and most selected safer habitats, thus reducing their probability of being killed. To reduce the probability of encountering predators, most of the smaller prey species (impala, warthog, waterbuck, kudu) avoided the space use of all predators, while the larger species (wildebeest, zebra, giraffe) only avoided areas where lion and leopard space use were high. The strength of avoidance for the space use of predators generally did not correspond to the relative predation threat from those predators. Instead, ungulates used a simpler behavioral rule of avoiding the activity areas of sit-and-pursue predators (lion and leopard), but not those of cursorial predators (cheetah and African wild dog). In general, selection and avoidance of habitats was stronger than avoidance of the predator activity areas. We expect similar decision rules to drive the distribution pattern of ungulates in other African savannas and in other multi-predator systems, especially where predators differ in their hunting modes.

[Influence, in normal subjects, of an isocaloric hyperprotein diet on cortisol, ACTH, GH and PRL response to lysine-8-vasopressin].

PubMed

Giovannini, C; Sellini, M; Manzo, G; Barletta, C; Scavo, D

1981-12-30

The Lysin-8-Vasopressin test has been experimented in ten healthy subjects during normocaloric balanced diet and after hyperproteic-normocaloric diet. The levels of ACTH, Cortisol and GH are significantly more elevated after hyperproteic-normocaloric diet than in basal conditions. The levels of Prolactin do not show any remarkable change. These results can indicate the increased reactivity of the diencephalon-hypophysis-adrenal axis and of the hormones connected with the mechanisms of homeostasis and stress, probably correlated to more disposable proteic material and to the metabolic effects which follow.

Does ambiguity aversion influence the framing effect during decision making?

PubMed

Osmont, Anaïs; Cassotti, Mathieu; Agogué, Marine; Houdé, Olivier; Moutier, Sylvain

2015-04-01

Decision-makers present a systematic tendency to avoid ambiguous options for which the level of risk is unknown. This ambiguity aversion is one of the most striking decision-making biases. Given that human choices strongly depend on the options' presentation, the purpose of the present study was to examine whether ambiguity aversion influences the framing effect during decision making. We designed a new financial decision-making task involving the manipulation of both frame and uncertainty levels. Thirty-seven participants had to choose between a sure option and a gamble depicting either clear or ambiguous probabilities. The results revealed a clear preference for the sure option in the ambiguity condition regardless of frame. However, participants presented a framing effect in both the risk and ambiguity conditions. Indeed, the framing effect was bidirectional in the risk condition and unidirectional in the ambiguity condition given that it did not involve preference reversal but only a more extreme choice tendency.

Continuous-Time Monitoring of Landau-Zener Interference in a Cooper-Pair Box

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sillanpää, Mika; Lehtinen, Teijo; Paila, Antti; Makhlin, Yuriy; Hakonen, Pertti

2006-05-01

Landau-Zener (LZ) tunneling can occur with a certain probability when crossing energy levels of a quantum two-level system are swept across the minimum energy separation. Here we present experimental evidence of quantum interference effects in solid-state LZ tunneling. We used a Cooper-pair box qubit where the LZ tunneling occurs at the charge degeneracy. By employing a weak nondemolition monitoring, we observe interference between consecutive LZ-tunneling events; we find that the average level occupancies depend on the dynamical phase. The system’s unusually strong linear response is explained by interband relaxation. Our interferometer can be used as a high-resolution Mach-Zehnder type detector for phase and charge.

Continuous-time monitoring of Landau-Zener interference in a cooper-pair box.

PubMed

Sillanpää, Mika; Lehtinen, Teijo; Paila, Antti; Makhlin, Yuriy; Hakonen, Pertti

2006-05-12

Landau-Zener (LZ) tunneling can occur with a certain probability when crossing energy levels of a quantum two-level system are swept across the minimum energy separation. Here we present experimental evidence of quantum interference effects in solid-state LZ tunneling. We used a Cooper-pair box qubit where the LZ tunneling occurs at the charge degeneracy. By employing a weak nondemolition monitoring, we observe interference between consecutive LZ-tunneling events; we find that the average level occupancies depend on the dynamical phase. The system's unusually strong linear response is explained by interband relaxation. Our interferometer can be used as a high-resolution Mach-Zehnder-type detector for phase and charge.

Does anyone understand HMO advertising?

PubMed

Bisinger, J M

1986-12-01

Much HMO advertising is executed with technical proficiency, but a high level of technical skill cannot compensate for poor objectives, an inadequate analysis of the business situation, or a lack of advertising effectiveness. Industrial marketing techniques often involve person-to-person selling via a sales staff, sales reps, on-site technical assistance and informational meetings, team selling, etc. Some HMOs also employ these techniques. In general, the promotional focus in these situations is not on mass media; communication tends to be in support of personal sales activities. These personal techniques are used because of the difficulty of selling complicated products or services. Is an HMO a simple product/service? If it is not, consumer promotional tactics will probably be ineffective. If used, these promotional tactics probably will be unintelligible because "consumers" do not select HMOs; their employers do.

Temperature Dependence of the OH- + CH3I Reaction Kinetics. Experimental and Simulation Studies and Atomic-Level Dynamics (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-25

reaction time, the core of the flow was sampled through a small orifice in a rounded nose cone, while the bulk of the gas was pumped by an oil free...than rebound for the latter. Calculations were performed with the OW quantum number J equal to 0, 3, and 6 to investigate the effect of OH-rotational...have little dependence on J. Possible effects on the atomistic mechanisms were investigated for the S(N)2 pathway and the probability of the direct

Synthetic aperture radar operator tactical target acquisition research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hershberger, M. L.; Craig, D. W.

1978-01-01

A radar target acquisition research study was conducted to access the effects of two levels of 13 radar sensor, display, and mission parameters on operator tactical target acquisition. A saturated fractional-factorial screening design was employed to examine these parameters. Data analysis computed ETA squared values for main and second-order effects for the variables tested. Ranking of the research parameters in terms of importance to system design revealed four variables (radar coverage, radar resolution/multiple looks, display resolution, and display size) accounted for 50 percent of the target acquisition probability variance.

Interactions of aquatic animals with the ORPC OCGen® in Cobscook Bay, Maine: Monitoring behavior change and assessing the probability of encounter with a deployed MHK device

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zydlewski, Gayle Barbin; Staines, Garrett; Viehman, Haley

Commercial viability of the marine hydrokinetic (MHK) energy industry is contingent on numerous and diverse factors. A major factor is the effects deployed devices have on animals. This factor is multi-faceted since it is dependent on the availability of appropriate scientific approaches to detect these effects. One of the animal groups with overlapping distributions of MHK devices are fishes. As such, individual fish behavior is likely to be influenced by the presence and operation of MHK devices. Depending on the scale of deployment there are implications for changes to essential fish habitat and effects that can be explored during deploymentmore » of a single device yet most changes are likely to be realized when multiple devices are deployed over large areas. It is not only important to document these effects and examine the need for mitigation, but also determine whether the methods involved can be used within the economic constraints of this nascent industry. The results presented in this report benefit the MHK industry by providing transferrable environmental monitoring approaches for MHK projects, specifically related to the interactions between static and dynamic tidal turbines and fish. In addition, some of the data can be used to generalize conditions (e.g., the temporal periodicity of fish presence in tidal regions and probability of fish encountering a device) at other MHK sites with similar physical conditions and fish assemblages. Ocean Renewable Power Company, LLC (ORPC) deployed and tested a prototype OCGen® tidal module in Cobscook Bay, Maine, in the summer of 2014. University of Maine researchers proposed an approach to inform other researchers, regulators, and industry members of the effects of this deployment on fish. While the approach was specifically applied to the OCGen® module, results are applicable to other pilot projects and inform future array deployments. Research funded under this grant allowed us to quantify fish presence as well as individual and group-level behavior changes in the presence of the deployed OCGen® module along with a bottom support frame from a previously deployed device (TidGen®). Specific objectives associated with fish behavior changes were (1) continuation of two long-term datasets: (a) stationary down-looking hydroacoustic dataset near an MHK device (group-level) and (b) stationary side-looking hydroacoustics near the bottom-support frame of a previously deployed MHK device (individual-level); (2) application of new processing methods to down-looking hydroacoustic datasets to improve fish species identification (group-level); and (3) development of an encounter probability model using data on fish abundance, vertical distribution, and behavior.« less

A spatially explicit model for an Allee effect: why wolves recolonize so slowly in Greater Yellowstone.

PubMed

Hurford, Amy; Hebblewhite, Mark; Lewis, Mark A

2006-11-01

A reduced probability of finding mates at low densities is a frequently hypothesized mechanism for a component Allee effect. At low densities dispersers are less likely to find mates and establish new breeding units. However, many mathematical models for an Allee effect do not make a distinction between breeding group establishment and subsequent population growth. Our objective is to derive a spatially explicit mathematical model, where dispersers have a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities, and parameterize the model for wolf recolonization in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In this model, only the probability of establishing new breeding units is influenced by the reduced probability of finding mates at low densities. We analytically and numerically solve the model to determine the effect of a decreased probability in finding mates at low densities on population spread rate and density. Our results suggest that a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities may slow recolonization rate.

Intermittent preventive antimalarial treatment for children with anaemia.

PubMed

Athuman, Mwaka; Kabanywanyi, Abdunoor M; Rohwer, Anke C

2015-01-13

Anaemia is a global public health problem. Children under five years of age living in developing countries (mostly Africa and South-East Asia) are highly affected. Although the causes for anaemia are multifactorial, malaria has been linked to anaemia in children living in malaria-endemic areas. Administering intermittent preventive antimalarial treatment (IPT) to children might reduce anaemia, since it could protect children from new Plasmodium parasite infection (the parasites that cause malaria) and allow their haemoglobin levels to recover. To assess the effect of IPT for children with anaemia living in malaria-endemic areas. We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, Cochrane Central of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), published in The Cochrane Library; MEDLINE; EMBASE; and LILACS. We also searched the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trial Registry Platform and metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT) for ongoing trials up to 4 December 2014. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the effect of IPT on children with anaemia. Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed risk of bias. We analysed data by conducting meta-analyses, stratifying data according to whether participants received iron supplements or not. We used GRADE to assess the quality of evidence. Six trials with 3847 participants met our inclusion criteria. Trials were conducted in areas of low malaria endemicity (three trials), and moderate to high endemicity (three trials). Four trials were in areas of seasonal malaria transmission. Iron was given to all children in two trials, and evaluated in a factorial design in a further two trials.IPT for children with anaemia probably has little or no effect on the proportion anaemic at 12 weeks follow-up (four trials, 2237 participants, (moderate quality evidence).IPT in anaemic children probably increases the mean change in haemoglobin levels from baseline to follow-up at 12 weeks on average by 0.32 g/dL (MD 0.32, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.45; four trials, 1672 participants, moderate quality evidence); and may improve haemoglobin levels at 12 weeks (MD 0.35, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.64; four trials, 1672 participants, low quality evidence). For both of these outcomes, subgroup analysis did not demonstrate a difference between children receiving iron and those that did not.IPT for children with anaemia probably has little or no effect on mortality or hospital admissions at six months (three trials, 3160 participants moderate quality evidence). Subgroup analysis did not show a difference between those children receiving iron supplements and those that did not. Trials did show a small effect on average haemoglobin levels but this did not appear to translate into an effect on mortality and hospital admissions. Three of the six trials were conducted in low endemicity areas where transmission is low and thus any protective effect is likely to be modest.

Enhanced response to music in pregnancy.

PubMed

Fritz, Thomas Hans; Ciupek, Marian; Kirkland, Ambika; Ihme, Klas; Guha, Anika; Hoyer, Jana; Villringer, Arno

2014-09-01

Given a possible effect of estrogen on the pleasure-mediating dopaminergic system, musical appreciation in participants whose estrogen levels are naturally elevated during the oral contraceptive cycle and pregnancy has been investigated (n = 32, 15 pregnant, 17 nonpregnant; mean age 27.2). Results show more pronounced blood pressure responses to music in pregnant women. However, estrogen level differences during different phases of oral contraceptive intake did not have any effect, indicating that the observed changes were not related to estrogen. Effects of music on blood pressure were independent of valence, and dissonance elicited the greatest drop in blood pressure. Thus, the enhanced physiological response in pregnant women probably does not reflect a protective mechanism to avoid unpleasantness. Instead, this enhanced response is discussed in terms of a facilitation of prenatal conditioning to acoustical (musical) stimuli. Copyright © 2014 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Attributes associated with probability of infestation by the pinon ips, Ips confusus, (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) in pinon pine, Pinus edulis

Treesearch

Jose E. Negron; Jill L. Wilson

2003-01-01

We examined attributes of pinon pine (Pinus edulis) associated with the probability of infestation by pinon ips (Ips confusus) in an outbreak in the Coconino National Forest, Arizona. We used data collected from 87 plots, 59 infested and 28 uninfested, and a logistic regression approach to estimate the probability ofinfestation based on plotand tree-level attributes....

Probability of success for phase III after exploratory biomarker analysis in phase II.

PubMed

Götte, Heiko; Kirchner, Marietta; Sailer, Martin Oliver

2017-05-01

The probability of success or average power describes the potential of a future trial by weighting the power with a probability distribution of the treatment effect. The treatment effect estimate from a previous trial can be used to define such a distribution. During the development of targeted therapies, it is common practice to look for predictive biomarkers. The consequence is that the trial population for phase III is often selected on the basis of the most extreme result from phase II biomarker subgroup analyses. In such a case, there is a tendency to overestimate the treatment effect. We investigate whether the overestimation of the treatment effect estimate from phase II is transformed into a positive bias for the probability of success for phase III. We simulate a phase II/III development program for targeted therapies. This simulation allows to investigate selection probabilities and allows to compare the estimated with the true probability of success. We consider the estimated probability of success with and without subgroup selection. Depending on the true treatment effects, there is a negative bias without selection because of the weighting by the phase II distribution. In comparison, selection increases the estimated probability of success. Thus, selection does not lead to a bias in probability of success if underestimation due to the phase II distribution and overestimation due to selection cancel each other out. We recommend to perform similar simulations in practice to get the necessary information about the risk and chances associated with such subgroup selection designs. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.