The disparity between extreme rainfall events and rare floods - with emphasis on the semi-arid American West

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osterkamp, W. R.; Friedman, J. M.

2000-10-01

Research beginning 40 years ago suggested that semi-arid lands of the USA have higher unit discharges for a given recurrence interval than occur in other areas. Convincing documentation and arguments for this suspicion, however, were not presented. Thus, records of measured rainfall intensities for specified durations and recurrence intervals, and theoretical depths of probable maximum precipitation for specified recurrence intervals and areal scales are considered here for comparing extreme rainfalls of semi-arid areas with those of other climatic areas. Runoff from semi-arid lands, as peaks of rare floods, is compared with that of other areas using various published records. Relative to humid areas, semi-arid parts of the conterminous USA have lower 100-year, 6-h rainfall intensities and smaller depths of 100-year probable maximum precipitation for 26-km2 areas. Nonetheless, maximum flood peaks, flash-flood potentials, and runoff potentials are generally larger in semi-arid areas than in more humid parts of the nation. Causes of this disparity between rainfall and runoff appear to be results of soil and vegetation that in humid areas absorb and intercept rainfall and attenuate runoff, but in semi-arid areas limit infiltration and enhance runoff from bare, crusted surfaces. These differences in soil and vegetation conditions are indicated by the relatively high curve numbers and drainage densities that are typical of semi-arid areas. Owing to soil and vegetation conditions, rare floods in semi-arid areas are more likely to cause landform change than are floods of similar magnitude elsewhere.

The disparity between extreme rainfall events and rare floods - with emphasis on the semi-arid American West

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osterkamp, W.R.; Friedman, J.M.

2000-01-01

Research beginning 40 years ago suggested that semi-arid lands of the USA have higher unit discharges for a given recurrence interval than occur in other areas. Convincing documentation and arguments for this suspicion, however, were not presented. Thus, records of measured rainfall intensities for specified durations and recurrence intervals, and theoretical depths of probable maximum precipitation for specified recurrence intervals and areal scales are considered here for comparing extreme rainfalls of semi-arid areas with those of other climatic areas. Runoff from semi-arid lands, as peaks of rare floods, is compared with that of other areas using various published records. Relative to humid areas, semi-arid parts of the conterminous USA have lower 100-year, 6-h rainfall intensities and smaller depths of 100-year probable maximum precipitation for 26-km2 areas. Nonetheless, maximum flood peaks, flash-flood potentials, and runoff potentials are generally larger in semi-arid areas than in more humid parts of the nation. Causes of this disparity between rainfall and runoff appear to be results of soil and vegetation that in humid areas absorb and intercept rainfall and attenuate runoff, but in semi-arid areas limit infiltration and enhance runoff from bare, crusted surfaces. These differences in soil and vegetation conditions are indicated by the relatively high curve numbers and drainage densities that are typical of semi-arid areas. Owing to soil and vegetation conditions, rare floods in semi-arid areas are more likely to cause landform change than are floods of similar magnitude elsewhere.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in western Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, David Dell; Hubbard, Larry L.; Hubbard, Lawrence E.

1979-01-01

A method for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods is presented for unregulated streams in western Oregon. Equations relating flood magnitude to basin characteristics were developed for exceedance probabilities of 0.5 to 0.01 (2- to 100-year recurrence intervals). Separate equations are presented for four regions: Coast, Willamette, Rogue-Umpqua, and High Cascades. Also presented are values of flood discharges for selected exceedance probabilities and of basin characteristics for all gaging stations used in the analysis. Included are data for 230 stations in Oregon, 6 stations in southwestern Washington, and 3 stations in northwestern California. Drainage areas used in the analysis range from 0.21 to 7,280 square miles. Also included are maximum discharges for all western Oregon stations used in the analysis. (Woodard-USGS)

National Program for Inspection of Non-Federal Dams, Goose Pond Dam (NH 00101), Connecticut River Basin, Keene, New Hampshire. Phase I Inspection Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-02-01

exceeded by floods _ greater than 6 percent of the Probable Maximum Flood ( PKF ), the test flood for spillway adequacy. Our screening criteria specifies...capacity at the top of the * dam (elevation 637) is 195 cfs or six percent of the routed O . Test Flood peak outflow. The dam is in FAIR condition at the...environment of the structure. It is .important to note that the condition of a dam depends on numerous and constantly changing internal and external

National Dam Inspection Program. Upper Pigeon Hill Dam. (NDI I.D. Number PA-00340, PennDER I.D. Number 67-5) Susquehanna River Basin, Gitts Run, York County, Pennsylvania. Phase I Inspection Report,

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-03-01

recommended guidelines, the Spillway Design Flood (SDF) ranges between the 1 /2-PMF (Probable Maximum Flood) and PMF. Since the dam is near the lower end of...overtopping. A breach analysis indicates that failure under 1 /2-PMF conditions would probably not lead to increased property damage or loss of life at...ii OVERVIEW PHOTOGRAPH ......... .................. V TABLE OF CONTENTS ......... ................... vi SECTION 1 - GENERAL INFORMATION

On the suitability of the copula types for the joint modelling of flood peaks and volumes along the Danube River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohnová, Silvia; Papaioannou, George; Bacigál, Tomáš; Szolgay, Ján; Hlavčová, Kamila; Loukas, Athanasios; Výleta, Roman

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is often performed as a univariate analysis of flood peaks using a suitable theoretical probability distribution of the annual maximum flood peaks or peak over threshold values. However, also other flood attributes, such as flood volume and duration, are often necessary for the design of hydrotechnical structures and projects. In this study, the suitability of various copula families for a bivariate analysis of peak discharges and flood volumes has been tested on the streamflow data from gauging stations along the whole Danube River. Kendall's rank correlation coefficient (tau) quantifies the dependence between flood peak discharge and flood volume settings. The methodology is tested on two different data samples: 1) annual maximum flood (AMF) peaks with corresponding flood volumes, which is a typical choice for engineering studies and 2). annual maximum flood (AMF) peaks combined with annual maximum flow volumes of fixed durations at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 60 days, which can be regarded as a regime analysis of the dependence between the extremes of both variables in a given year. The bivariate modelling of the peak discharge - flood volume couples is achieved with the use of the the following copulas: Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Clayton, Frank, Joe, Gumbel, HuslerReiss, Galambos, Tawn, Normal, Plackett and FGM, respectively. Scatterplots of the observed and simulated peak discharge - flood volume pairs and goodness-of-fit tests have been used to assess the overall applicability of the copulas as well as observing any changes in suitable models along the Danube River. The results indicate that, almost all of the considered Archimedean class copulas (e.g. Frank, Clayton and Ali-Mikhail-Haq) perform better than the other copula families selected for this study, and that for the second data samples mostly the upper-tail-flat copulas were suitable.

Analysis and inundation mapping of the April-May 2011 flood at selected locations in northern and eastern Arkansas and southern Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westerman, Drew A.; Merriman, Katherine R.; De Lanois, Jeanne L.; Berenbrock, Charles

2013-01-01

Precipitation that fell from April 19 through May 3, 2011, resulted in widespread flooding across northern and eastern Arkansas and southern Missouri. The first storm produced a total of approximately 16 inches of precipitation over an 8-day period, and the following storms produced as much as 12 inches of precipitation over a 2-day period. Moderate to major flooding occurred quickly along many streams within Arkansas and Missouri (including the Black, Cache, Illinois, St. Francis, and White Rivers) at levels that had not been seen since the historic 1927 floods. The 2011 flood claimed an estimated 21 lives in Arkansas and Missouri, and damage caused by the flooding resulted in a Federal Disaster Declaration for 59 Arkansas counties that received Federal or State assistance. To further the goal of documenting and understanding floods, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers–Little Rock and Memphis Districts, and Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, conducted a study to summarize meteorological and hydrological conditions before the flood; computed flood-peak magnitudes for 39 streamgages; estimated annual exceedance probabilities for 37 of those streamgages; determined the joint probabilities for 11 streamgages paired to the Mississippi River at Helena, Arkansas, which refers to the probability that locations on two paired streams simultaneously experience floods of a magnitude greater than or equal to a given annual exceedance probability; collected high-water marks; constructed flood-peak inundation maps showing maximum flood extent and water depths; and summarized flood damages and effects. For the period of record used in this report, peak-of-record stage occurred at 24 of the 39 streamgages, and peak-of-record streamflow occurred at 13 of the 30 streamgages where streamflow was determined. Annual exceedance probabilities were estimated to be less than 0.5 percent at three streamgages. The joint probability values for streamgages paired with the Mississippi River at Helena, Ark., streamgage indicate a low probability of concurrent flooding with the paired streamgages. The inundation maps show the flood-peak extent and water depth of flooding for two stream reaches on the White River and two on the Black River; the vicinities of the communities of Holly Grove and Cotton Plant, Ark.; a reach of the White River that includes the crossing of Interstate 40 north of De Valls Bluff, Ark.; and the Tailwaters of Beaver Dam near Eureka Springs, Ark., Table Rock Dam near Branson, Mo., and Bull Shoals Dam near Flippin, Ark. The data and inundation maps can be used for flood response, recovery, and planning efforts by Federal, State, and local agencies.

Parsimonious nonstationary flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serago, Jake M.; Vogel, Richard M.

2018-02-01

There is now widespread awareness of the impact of anthropogenic influences on extreme floods (and droughts) and thus an increasing need for methods to account for such influences when estimating a frequency distribution. We introduce a parsimonious approach to nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NFFA) based on a bivariate regression equation which describes the relationship between annual maximum floods, x, and an exogenous variable which may explain the nonstationary behavior of x. The conditional mean, variance and skewness of both x and y = ln (x) are derived, and combined with numerous common probability distributions including the lognormal, generalized extreme value and log Pearson type III models, resulting in a very simple and general approach to NFFA. Our approach offers several advantages over existing approaches including: parsimony, ease of use, graphical display, prediction intervals, and opportunities for uncertainty analysis. We introduce nonstationary probability plots and document how such plots can be used to assess the improved goodness of fit associated with a NFFA.

A methodological framework to assess PMP and PMF in snow-dominated watersheds under changing climate conditions - A case study of three watersheds in Québec (Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhani, Hassan; Leconte, Robert

2018-06-01

Climate change will affect precipitation and flood regimes. It is anticipated that the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) will be modified in a changing climate. This paper aims to quantify and analyze climate change influences on PMP and PMF in three watersheds with different climatic conditions across the province of Québec, Canada. Output data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) was used to estimate PMP and Probable Maximum Snow Accumulation (PMSA) in future climate projections, which was then used to force the SWAT hydrological model to estimate PMF. PMP and PMF values were estimated for two time horizons each spanning 30 years: 1961-1990 (recent past) and 2041-2070 (future). PMP and PMF were separately analyzed for two seasons: summer-fall and spring. Results show that PMF in the watershed located in southern Québec would remain unchanged in the future horizon, but the trend for the watersheds located in the northeastern and northern areas of the province is an increase of up to 11%.

Floods in Central Texas, September 7-14, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winters, Karl E.

2012-01-01

Severe flooding occurred near the Austin metropolitan area in central Texas September 7–14, 2010, because of heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Hermine. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Brushy Creek Water Control and Improvement District, determined rainfall amounts and annual exceedance probabilities for rainfall resulting in flooding in Bell, Williamson, and Travis counties in central Texas during September 2010. We documented peak streamflows and the annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflows recorded at several streamflow-gaging stations in the study area. The 24-hour rainfall total exceeded 12 inches at some locations, with one report of 14.57 inches at Lake Georgetown. Rainfall probabilities were estimated using previously published depth-duration frequency maps for Texas. At 4 sites in Williamson County, the 24-hour rainfall had an annual exceedance probability of 0.002. Streamflow measurement data and flood-peak data from U.S. Geological Survey surface-water monitoring stations (streamflow and reservoir gaging stations) are presented, along with a comparison of September 2010 flood peaks to previous known maximums in the periods of record. Annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflow were computed for 20 streamflow-gaging stations based on an analysis of streamflow-gaging station records. The annual exceedance probability was 0.03 for the September 2010 peak streamflow at the Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging stations 08104700 North Fork San Gabriel River near Georgetown, Texas, and 08154700 Bull Creek at Loop 360 near Austin, Texas. The annual exceedance probability was 0.02 for the peak streamflow for Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging station 08104500 Little River near Little River, Texas. The lack of similarity in the annual exceedance probabilities computed for precipitation and streamflow might be attributed to the small areal extent of the heaviest rainfall over these and the other gaged watersheds.

Flood hydrology for Dry Creek, Lake County, Northwestern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, C.; Jarrett, R.D.

2004-01-01

Dry Creek drains about 22.6 square kilometers of rugged mountainous terrain upstream from Tabor Dam in the Mission Range near St. Ignatius, Montana. Because of uncertainty about plausible peak discharges and concerns regarding the ability of the Tabor Dam spillway to safely convey these discharges, the flood hydrology for Dry Creek was evaluated on the basis of three hydrologic and geologic methods. The first method involved determining an envelope line relating flood discharge to drainage area on the basis of regional historical data and calculating a 500-year flood for Dry Creek using a regression equation. The second method involved paleoflood methods to estimate the maximum plausible discharge for 35 sites in the study area. The third method involved rainfall-runoff modeling for the Dry Creek basin in conjunction with regional precipitation information to determine plausible peak discharges. All of these methods resulted in estimates of plausible peak discharges that are substantially less than those predicted by the more generally applied probable maximum flood technique. Copyright ASCE 2004.

A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

2018-02-01

Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

Regional flood probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Troutman, Brent M.; Karlinger, Michael R.

2003-01-01

The T‐year annual maximum flood at a site is defined to be that streamflow, that has probability 1/T of being exceeded in any given year, and for a group of sites the corresponding regional flood probability (RFP) is the probability that at least one site will experience a T‐year flood in any given year. The RFP depends on the number of sites of interest and on the spatial correlation of flows among the sites. We present a Monte Carlo method for obtaining the RFP and demonstrate that spatial correlation estimates used in this method may be obtained with rank transformed data and therefore that knowledge of the at‐site peak flow distribution is not necessary. We examine the extent to which the estimates depend on specification of a parametric form for the spatial correlation function, which is known to be nonstationary for peak flows. It is shown in a simulation study that use of a stationary correlation function to compute RFPs yields satisfactory estimates for certain nonstationary processes. Application of asymptotic extreme value theory is examined, and a methodology for separating channel network and rainfall effects on RFPs is suggested. A case study is presented using peak flow data from the state of Washington. For 193 sites in the Puget Sound region it is estimated that a 100‐year flood will occur on the average every 4.5 years.

A framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure in mitigating urban flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, Jochen E.; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, Tim D.; Sanders, Brett F.

2017-10-01

This research outlines a framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure (GI) performance in mitigating flood hazard in small urban catchments. The urban hydrologic modeling tool (MUSIC) is coupled with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with GI, rainwater tanks and infiltration trenches in particular, can propagate flood management benefits downstream and support intuitive flood hazard maps useful for communicating and planning with communities. The hydrologic and hydraulic models are calibrated based on current catchment conditions, then modified to represent alternative GI scenarios including a complete lack of GI versus a full implementation of GI. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 1-63% and durations from 10 min to 24 h. Flood hazard benefits mapped by the framework include maximum flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Application of the system to the Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment shows that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 h, presently implemented GI reduces downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of GI would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of GI could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing the drowning hazard posed by urban streams and improving the potential for access by emergency responders. For storm durations longer than 3 h, a full implementation of GI lacks the capacity to retain the resulting rainfall depths and only reduces flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%.

Method of estimating flood-frequency parameters for streams in Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kjelstrom, L.C.; Moffatt, R.L.

1981-01-01

Skew coefficients for the log-Pearson type III distribution are generalized on the basis of some similarity of floods in the Snake River basin and other parts of Idaho. Generalized skew coefficients aid in shaping flood-frequency curves because skew coefficients computed from gaging stations having relatively short periods of peak flow records can be unreliable. Generalized skew coefficients can be obtained for a gaging station from one of three maps in this report. The map to be used depends on whether (1) snowmelt floods are domiant (generally when more than 20 percent of the drainage area is above 6,000 feet altitude), (2) rainstorm floods are dominant (generally when the mean altitude is less than 3,000 feet), or (3) either snowmelt or rainstorm floods can be the annual miximum discharge. For the latter case, frequency curves constructed using separate arrays of each type of runoff can be combined into one curve, which, for some stations, is significantly different than the frequency curve constructed using only annual maximum discharges. For 269 gaging stations, flood-frequency curves that include the generalized skew coefficients in the computation of the log-Pearson type III equation tend to fit the data better than previous analyses. Frequency curves for ungaged sites can be derived by estimating three statistics of the log-Pearson type III distribution. The mean and standard deviation of logarithms of annual maximum discharges are estimated by regression equations that use basin characteristics as independent variables. Skew coefficient estimates are the generalized skews. The log-Pearson type III equation is then applied with the three estimated statistics to compute the discharge at selected exceedance probabilities. Standard errors at the 2-percent exceedance probability range from 41 to 90 percent. (USGS)

Seasonal fecundity is not related to geographic position ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

AimSixty-five years ago, Theodosius Dobzhansky suggested that individuals of a species face greater challenges from abiotic stressors at high latitudes and from biotic stressors at their low-latitude range edges. This idea has been expanded to the hypothesis that species’ ranges are limited by abiotic and biotic stressors at high and low latitudes, respectively. Support has been found in many systems, but this hypothesis has almost never been tested with demographic data. We present an analysis of fecundity across the breeding range of a species as a test of this hypothesis.Location575 km of tidal marshes in the northeastern United States.MethodsWe monitored saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus) nests at twenty-three sites from Maine to New Jersey, USA. With data from 840 nests, we calculated daily nest failure probabilities due to competing abiotic (flooding) and biotic (depredation) stressors.ResultsWe observed that abiotic stress (nest flooding probability) was greater than biotic stress (nest depredation probability) at the high-latitude range edge of saltmarsh sparrows, consistent with Dobzhansky’s hypothesis. Similarly, biotic stress decreased with increasing latitude throughout the range, whereas abiotic stress was not predicted by latitude alone. Instead, nest flooding probability was best predicted by date, maximum high tide, and extremity of rare flooding events.Main conclusionsOur results provide support for Dobzhansky’s hypothesis across th

Flood-inundation maps for the Green River in Colrain, Leyden, and Greenfield, Massachusetts, from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 01170100 Green River near Colrain to the confluence with the Deerfield River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Robert H.; Bent, Gardner C.; Lombard, Pamela J.

2016-09-02

The U.S. Geological Survey developed flood elevations in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency for a 14.3-mile reach of the Green River in Colrain, Leyden, and Greenfield, Massachusetts, to assist landowners and emergency management workers to prepare for and recover from floods. The river reach extends from the U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage downstream to the confluence with the Deerfield River. A series of seven digital flood inundation maps were developed for the upper 4.4 miles of the river reach downstream from the stream. Flood discharges corresponding to the 50-, 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities were computed for the reach from updated flood-frequency analyses. These peak flows and the flood flows associated with the stages of 10.2, 12.4, and 14.4 feet (ft) at the Green River streamgage were routed through a one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model to obtain the corresponding peak water-surface elevations and to place the Tropical Storm Irene flood of August 28, 2011 (stage 13.97 ft), into historical context. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the current (2015) stage-discharge relation at the U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage and from documented high-water marks from the Tropical Storm Irene flood, which had a flow higher than a 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood discharge.The hydraulic model was used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages referenced to the streamgage and ranging from the 50-percent annual exceedance probability (bankfull flow) at 7.6 ft (439.8 ft above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [NAVD 88]) to 14.4 ft (446.7 ft NAVD 88), which exceeds the maximum recorded water level of 13.97 ft (Tropical Storm Irene) at the streamgage. The mapped stages of 7.6 to 14.4 ft were selected to match the stages for bankfull; the 50-, 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities; incremental stages of 10.2 and 12.4 ft; and the maximum stage of the stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 0.5-ft vertical accuracy to create a set of flood-inundation maps.The availability of the flood-inundation maps, combined with information regarding near real-time stage from U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events.

75 FR 9592 - FPL Energy Maine Hydro, LLC; Notice of Intent To Prepare an Environmental Document and Soliciting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-03

... a probable maximum flood, and modification of the existing earthen embankments for improved slope stability and safety. The proposed remedial measures would not alter the basic footprint of the existing dam...

Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation: a case study in the catchments of the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Chang, J.; Guo, A.

2017-12-01

Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on flood control systems. Given this focus, a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework focusing on flood control and sediment transport is proposed in the current work. Additionally, the conditional probabilities of occurrence of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is used to evaluate the uncertainties of univariate and bivariate hydrological risk. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The results indicate that (1) 2-day and 3-day consecutive rainfall are highly correlated with the annual maximum flood discharge (AMF) in UCX and UCH, respectively; and (2) univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are successfully estimated. Sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the AMF, exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Most importantly, there was considerable sampling uncertainty in the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk analysis, which would greatly challenge measures of future flood mitigation. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

Physically-based extreme flood frequency with stochastic storm transposition and paleoflood data on large watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, John F.; Julien, Pierre Y.; Velleux, Mark L.

2014-03-01

Traditionally, deterministic flood procedures such as the Probable Maximum Flood have been used for critical infrastructure design. Some Federal agencies now use hydrologic risk analysis to assess potential impacts of extreme events on existing structures such as large dams. Extreme flood hazard estimates and distributions are needed for these efforts, with very low annual exceedance probabilities (⩽10-4) (return periods >10,000 years). An integrated data-modeling hydrologic hazard framework for physically-based extreme flood hazard estimation is presented. Key elements include: (1) a physically-based runoff model (TREX) coupled with a stochastic storm transposition technique; (2) hydrometeorological information from radar and an extreme storm catalog; and (3) streamflow and paleoflood data for independently testing and refining runoff model predictions at internal locations. This new approach requires full integration of collaborative work in hydrometeorology, flood hydrology and paleoflood hydrology. An application on the 12,000 km2 Arkansas River watershed in Colorado demonstrates that the size and location of extreme storms are critical factors in the analysis of basin-average rainfall frequency and flood peak distributions. Runoff model results are substantially improved by the availability and use of paleoflood nonexceedance data spanning the past 1000 years at critical watershed locations.

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2011-12-01

Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

How extreme was the October 2015 flood in the Carolinas? An assessment of flood frequency analysis and distribution tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R. C.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M. E.

2018-07-01

This paper examines the frequency, distribution tails, and peak-over-threshold (POT) of extreme floods through analysis that centers on the October 2015 flooding in North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina (SC), United States (US). The most striking features of the October 2015 flooding were a short time to peak (Tp) and a multi-hour continuous flood peak which caused intensive and widespread damages to human lives, properties, and infrastructure. The 2015 flooding was produced by a sequence of intense rainfall events which originated from category 4 hurricane Joaquin over a period of four days. Here, the probability distribution and distribution parameters (i.e., location, scale, and shape) of floods were investigated by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of the annual maximum flood (AMF) and POT with light- to heavy- theoretical tails: Fréchet, Pareto, Gumbel, Weibull, Beta, and Exponential. Specifically, four sets of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauging data from the central Carolinas with record lengths from approximately 65-125 years were used. Analysis suggests that heavier-tailed distributions are in better agreement with the POT and somewhat AMF data than more often used exponential (light) tailed probability distributions. Further, the threshold selection and record length affect the heaviness of the tail and fluctuations of the parent distributions. The shape parameter and its evolution in the period of record play a critical and poorly understood role in determining the scaling of flood response to intense rainfall.

Influence of Climate Change on Flood Hazard using Climate Informed Bayesian Hierarchical Model in Johnson Creek River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarekarizi, M.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Extreme events are proven to be affected by climate change, influencing hydrologic simulations for which stationarity is usually a main assumption. Studies have discussed that this assumption would lead to large bias in model estimations and higher flood hazard consequently. Getting inspired by the importance of non-stationarity, we determined how the exceedance probabilities have changed over time in Johnson Creek River, Oregon. This could help estimate the probability of failure of a structure that was primarily designed to resist less likely floods according to common practice. Therefore, we built a climate informed Bayesian hierarchical model and non-stationarity was considered in modeling framework. Principle component analysis shows that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Western Pacific Index (WPI) and Eastern Asia (EA) are mostly affecting stream flow in this river. We modeled flood extremes using peaks over threshold (POT) method rather than conventional annual maximum flood (AMF) mainly because it is possible to base the model on more information. We used available threshold selection methods to select a suitable threshold for the study area. Accounting for non-stationarity, model parameters vary through time with climate indices. We developed a couple of model scenarios and chose one which could best explain the variation in data based on performance measures. We also estimated return periods under non-stationarity condition. Results show that ignoring stationarity could increase the flood hazard up to four times which could increase the probability of an in-stream structure being overtopped.

Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton, Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rendon, Samuel H.; Ashworth, Chad E.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2012-01-01

Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and reliable water supplies, but they also entail risk: dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or misoperation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning the emergency response if a dam breach occurs. Accurate topographic data are vital for developing flood-inundation maps. This report presents results of a cooperative study by the city of Lawton, Oklahoma, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to model dam-breach scenarios at Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton and to map the potential flood-inundation areas of such dam breaches. To assist the city of Lawton with completion of the emergency action plans for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka Dams, the USGS collected light detection and ranging (lidar) data that were used to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model and a 1-foot contour elevation map for the flood plains downstream from Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka. This digital elevation model and field measurements, streamflow-gaging station data (USGS streamflow-gaging station 07311000, East Cache Creek near Walters, Okla.), and hydraulic values were used as inputs for the dynamic (unsteady-flow) model, Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The modeled flood elevations were exported to a geographic information system to produce flood-inundation maps. Water-surface profiles were developed for a 75-percent probable maximum flood scenario and a sunny-day dam-breach scenario, as well as for maximum flood-inundation elevations and flood-wave arrival times for selected bridge crossings. Some areas of concern near the city of Lawton, if a dam breach occurs at Lakes Ellsworth or Lawtonka, include water treatment plants, wastewater treatment plants, recreational areas, and community-services offices.

A coupled weather generator - rainfall-runoff approach on hourly time steps for flood risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, Benjamin; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Huttenlau, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Stötter, Johann

2017-04-01

The evaluation of potential monetary damage of flooding is an essential part of flood risk management. One possibility to estimate the monetary risk is to analyze long time series of observed flood events and their corresponding damages. In reality, however, only few flood events are documented. This limitation can be overcome by the generation of a set of synthetic, physically and spatial plausible flood events and subsequently the estimation of the resulting monetary damages. In the present work, a set of synthetic flood events is generated by a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation in combination with a coupled weather generator and temporal disaggregation procedure for the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). Most flood risk studies focus on daily time steps, however, the mesoscale alpine study area is characterized by short concentration times, leading to large differences between daily mean and daily maximum discharge. Accordingly, an hourly time step is needed for the simulations. The hourly metrological input for the rainfall-runoff model is generated in a two-step approach. A synthetic daily dataset is generated by a multivariate and multisite weather generator and subsequently disaggregated to hourly time steps with a k-Nearest-Neighbor model. Following the event generation procedure, the negative consequences of flooding are analyzed. The corresponding flood damage for each synthetic event is estimated by combining the synthetic discharge at representative points of the river network with a loss probability relation for each community in the study area. The loss probability relation is based on exposure and susceptibility analyses on a single object basis (residential buildings) for certain return periods. For these impact analyses official inundation maps of the study area are used. Finally, by analyzing the total event time series of damages, the expected annual damage or losses associated with a certain probability of occurrence can be estimated for the entire study area.

Macro-economic assessment of flood risk in Italy under current and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrera, Lorenzo; Koks, Elco; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Aerts, Jeroen; Standardi, Gabriele

2014-05-01

This paper explores an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect costs of fluvial flooding to estimate current and future fluvial flood risk in Italy. Our methodology combines a Geographic Information System spatial approach, with a general economic equilibrium approach using a downscaled modified version of a Computable General Equilibrium model at NUTS2 scale. Given the level of uncertainty in the behavior of disaster-affected economies, the simulation considers a wide range of business recovery periods. We calculate expected annual losses for each NUTS2 region, and exceedence probability curves to determine probable maximum losses. Given a certain acceptable level of risk, we describe the conditions of flood protection and business recovery periods under which losses are contained within this limit. Because of the difference between direct costs, which are an overestimation of stock losses, and indirect costs, which represent the macro-economic effects, our results have different policy meanings. While the former is relevant for post-disaster recovery, the latter is more relevant for public policy issues, particularly for cost-benefit analysis and resilience assessment.

Relevance of the correlation between precipitation and the 0 °C isothermal altitude for extreme flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeimetz, Fraenz; Schaefli, Bettina; Artigue, Guillaume; García Hernández, Javier; Schleiss, Anton J.

2017-08-01

Extreme floods are commonly estimated with the help of design storms and hydrological models. In this paper, we propose a new method to take into account the relationship between precipitation intensity (P) and air temperature (T) to account for potential snow accumulation and melt processes during the elaboration of design storms. The proposed method is based on a detailed analysis of this P-T relationship in the Swiss Alps. The region, no upper precipitation intensity limit is detectable for increasing temperature. However, a relationship between the highest measured temperature before a precipitation event and the duration of the subsequent event could be identified. An explanation for this relationship is proposed here based on the temperature gradient measured before the precipitation events. The relevance of these results is discussed for an example of Probable Maximum Precipitation-Probable Maximum Flood (PMP-PMF) estimation for the high mountainous Mattmark dam catchment in the Swiss Alps. The proposed method to associate a critical air temperature to a PMP is easily transposable to similar alpine settings where meteorological soundings as well as ground temperature and precipitation measurements are available. In the future, the analyses presented here might be further refined by distinguishing between precipitation event types (frontal versus orographic).

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martínez Trepat, Oriol; Nghia Hung, Nguyen; Thi Chinh, Do; Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2016-04-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial-pluvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of coincidence into account. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation taking into account the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Flood frequency analysis for a braided river catchment in New Zealand: Comparing annual maximum and partial duration series with varying record lengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, B. K.; Mohssen, M.; Hughey, K. F. D.

2017-04-01

This study addresses technical questions concerning the use of the partial duration series (PDS) within the domain of flood frequency analysis. The recurring questions which often prevent the standardised use of the PDS are peak independence and threshold selection. This paper explores standardised approaches to peak and threshold selection to produce PDS samples with differing average annual exceedances, using six theoretical probability distributions. The availability of historical annual maximum (AMS) data (1930-1966) in addition to systemic AMS data (1967-2015) enables a unique comparison between the performance of the PDS sample and the systemic AMS sample. A recently derived formula for the translation of the PDS into the annual domain, simplifying the use of the PDS, is utilised in an applied case study for the first time. Overall, the study shows that PDS sampling returns flood magnitudes similar to those produced by AMS series utilising historical data and thus the use of the PDS should be preferred in cases where historical flood data is unavailable.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States, Part 3-A, Ohio River Basin except Cumberland and Tennessee River Basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Speer, Paul R.; Gamble, Charles R.

1965-01-01

This report presents a means of determining the probable magnitude and frequency of floods of any recurrence interval from 1.1 to 50 years at most points on streams in the Ohio River basin except Cumberland and Tennessee River basins. Curves are defined that show the relation between the drainage area and the mean annual flood in eight hydrologic areas, and composite frequency curves define the relation of a flood of any recurrence interval from 1.1 to 50 years to the mean annual flood. These two relations are based upon gaging-station records having 10 or more years of record not materially affected by storage or diversion, and the results obtainable from them will represent the magnitude and frequency of natural floods within the range and recurrence intervals defined by the base data. The report also contains a compilation of flood records at all sites in the area at which records have been collected for 5 or more consecutive years. As far as was possible at each location for which discharge has been determined, the tabulations include all floods above a selected base. Where only gage heights have been obtained or where the data did not warrant computation of peach discharges above a selected base, only annual peaks are shown. The maximum known flood discharges for the streamflow stations and miscellaneous points except Ohio River main stem stations, together with areal floods of 10- and 50-year recurrence intervals, are plotted against the size of drainage area for each flood region and hydrologic area to provide a convenient means of judging the frequency of the maximum known floods that have been recorded for these points.

Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

2017-11-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

Estimating design flood and HEC-RAS modelling approach for flood analysis in Bojonegoro city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prastica, R. M. S.; Maitri, C.; Hermawan, A.; Nugroho, P. C.; Sutjiningsih, D.; Anggraheni, E.

2018-03-01

Bojonegoro faces flood every year with less advanced prevention development. Bojonegoro city development could not peak because the flood results material losses. It affects every sectors in Bojonegoro: education, politics, economy, social, and infrastructure development. This research aims to analyse and to ensure that river capacity has high probability to be the main factor of flood in Bojonegoro. Flood discharge analysis uses Nakayasu synthetic unit hydrograph for period of 5 years, 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, and 100 years. They would be compared to the water maximum capacity that could be loaded by downstream part of Bengawan Solo River in Bojonegoro. According to analysis result, Bengawan Solo River in Bojonegoro could not able to load flood discharges. Another method used is HEC-RAS analysis. The conclusion that shown by HEC-RAS analysis has the same view. It could be observed that flood water loading is more than full bank capacity elevation in the river. To conclude, the main factor that should be noticed by government to solve flood problem is river capacity.

Flood risk assessment in a Spanish Mediterranean catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salazar, S.; Francés, F.; García-Bartual, R.; Ortiz, E.; Múnera, J. C.; Vélez, J. J.

2009-04-01

This paper describes a multidisciplinary approach for the risk assessment and its application to analysing the effects of extreme flood events on the Mediterranean catchment called "Rambla del Poyo" in Valencia (Spain). This catchment located in the East coast of Spain has an area of 380 km2 and is clearly open to the Mediterranean Mesoscale Convective Storms. The climate is semiarid, and the flow regime is typically ephemeral, but with highly frequent flash floods, with peak flows in the order of 500 m3/s. Recently, in 2000 and 2002 the area was severe flooded. The flood prone area is located in the lower part of the basin, with an important concentration of different urban centers and industrial and commercial areas (including part of the Valencia International Airport). For this reason, the analysis of damages of residential, industrial and commercial urbanized areas is essential for the prevention of damages with a proper flood risk management. The approach is based on three main steps. The first step entails a detailed hydrological analysis (parameter estimation, calibration-validation and simulations) using a distributed rainfall-runoff model called TETIS. In the case study, on one hand, high temporal resolutions rain gauge data are scarce, because of this, in addition to a small number of historic events, 100 synthetic rainstorms were generated using the multidimensional stochastic model called RAINGEN, which adequately represents the main structural properties typical of intense convective storms, including occurrence of raincells in space and time and the generated intensities. An equivalent daily maximum precipitation Pd was estimated for each synthetic event, thus allowing a return period assignment using the known statistical distribution of Pd in the region. On the other hand, the initial soil moisture condition can have a strong influence in the runoff production, for this reason, long term daily simulation has been done in order to asses the probability distribution of the initial situation before the extreme flood events (dry and wet conditions). For all combinations of precipitation inputs and initial conditions, 200 hydrological simulations has been done in order to obtain the input hydrographs for the hydraulic model. Finally in this step, a frequency analysis to obtain the non-exceedence probability of the peak discharges has been developed using the annual maximum daily precipitation and the initial soil moisture condition with this expression: ž« FX (x) = FX |r (x|r).fR (r).dr -ž where: X= random variable of interest (peak discharge), R= annual maximum daily precipitation, fR(r)= probability density function of R, FX•r(x/r)= conditional density function of X given r obtained from simulations. The main objective of second step is flood hazard estimation, which, the hydraulic modelling has been developed using the coupled computing version of Sobek 1D/2D. In this task, the treatment of DEM calculation can be a key task depending on the scale of work. The introduction of buildings, walls, the opening of drainage works… improving the quality of results in areas with high anthropogenic influence; in our case has been made 6 simulations with 3 different resolutions, after all, the model has been done with a model one-dimensional (1D), logging throughout the stretch to two-dimensional (2D) grid with the parent of 30x30 metres, except for its passage through the urban, commercial and industrial land uses in the flood prone area where it connects with the child grid of 10x10 metres. Unfortunately, for reasons of computer time, the hydraulic model has not been run for the 200 available events. However, 20 events have been carefully select trying to cover the best probabilistic interest spectrum for this study (from two to one thousand years of return period). From the 20 selected flooding maps it has been developed a GIS computational tool for calculating a regression between the independent variable (maximum water depth) and the dependent variable return period transformed into natural logarithm. Using this methodology have been generated the hazard maps for the return periods of interest. Finally, the third step concerns to the flood risk, which was defined as probabilistic integral of the combination of flood hazard and land use vulnerability: ž« R = V (h).fH (h).dh 0 Where: R is the flood risk, V(h) is the land use vulnerability, h is the flood magnitude and fH(h) is its probability density function. The land use vulnerability is expressed in terms of stage-damage functions for urban, commercial and industrial land uses. Both, flood hazard and land use vulnerability are defined in terms of magnitude (water depth). This integral has been solved in discrete form using a GIS tools. The flood risk assessment by a resolution of 10 meters in size cell in the flood prone area of the "Rambla del Poyo" has been done. With this useful methodology, we believe that a complete flood risk analysis is needed in order to objectively compare different future scenarios that can affect either the flood hazard and/or the vulnerability in the flood prone area.

National Program for Inspection of Non-Federal Dams. Crescent Lake Dam (CT 00277), Connecticut River Basin, Enfield, Connecticut. Phase I Inspection Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-11-01

hydraulic analyses. In accordance with the established Guide- lines , the Spillway Test Flood is based on the estimated "Probable Maximum Flood" for the...the south by Shaker Road. A branch line of the Penn Central Railroad pas- ses to the right of the dam and reservoir. - 0 The dam was originally...passage of water through the - upper foot of stone. ,,,’. i. Regulating Outlets There is a 375 foot long raceway outlet on the east shore- -" line

National Program for Inspection of Non-Federal Dams. Arm Brook Multiple Purpose Dam (MA 00604) Connecticut River Basin, Westfield, Massachusetts. Phase I Inspection Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-08-01

based on the stimated "Probable Maximum Flood" for the region (greatest easonably possible storm runoff ), or fractions thereof. ecause of the...mechanism could have been general flooding of the outlet work due to runoff from storm water. The 1972 SCS report does mention that the inspection...Westfield William F. Warren, SCS ARM BROOK SITE Beach Area 0 0 Problems: Gullies are being washed in the beach by runoff from the road and especially

Flood Risk Assessments of Architectural Heritage - Case of Changgyeonggung Palace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyosang; Kim, Ji-sung; Lee, Ho-jin

2014-05-01

The risk of natural disasters such as flood and earthquake has increased due to recent extreme weather events. Therefore, the necessity of the risk management system to protect architectural properties, a cultural heritage of humanity, from natural disasters has been consistently felt. The solutions for managing flood risk focusing on architectural heritage are suggested and applied to protect Changgyeonggung Palace, a major palace heritage in Seoul. After the probable rainfall scenario for risk assessment (frequency: 100 years, 200 years, and 500 years) and the scenario of a probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are made and a previous rainfall event (from July 26th to 28th in 2011) is identified, they are used for the model (HEC-HMS, SWMM) to assess flood risk of certain areas covering Changgyeonggung Palace to do flood amount. Such flood amount makes it possible to identify inundation risks based on GIS models to assess flood risk of individual architectural heritage. The results of assessing such risk are used to establish the disaster risk management system that managers of architectural properties can utilize. According to the results of assessing flood risk of Changgyeonggung Palace, inundation occurs near outlets of Changgyeonggung Palace and sections of river channel for all scenarios of flood risk but the inundation risk of major architectural properties was estimated low. The methods for assessing flood risk of architectural heritage proposed in this study and the risk management system for Changgyeonggung Palace using the methods show thorough solutions for flood risk management and the possibility of using the solutions seems high. A comprehensive management system for architectural heritage will be established in the future through the review on diverse factors for disasters.

Probabilistic description of probable maximum precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Alaya, Mohamed Ali; Zwiers, Francis W.; Zhang, Xuebin

2017-04-01

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the key parameter used to estimate probable Maximum Flood (PMF). PMP and PMF are important for dam safety and civil engineering purposes. Even if the current knowledge of storm mechanisms remains insufficient to properly evaluate limiting values of extreme precipitation, PMP estimation methods are still based on deterministic consideration, and give only single values. This study aims to provide a probabilistic description of the PMP based on the commonly used method, the so-called moisture maximization. To this end, a probabilistic bivariate extreme values model is proposed to address the limitations of traditional PMP estimates via moisture maximization namely: (i) the inability to evaluate uncertainty and to provide a range PMP values, (ii) the interpretation that a maximum of a data series as a physical upper limit (iii) and the assumption that a PMP event has maximum moisture availability. Results from simulation outputs of the Canadian Regional Climate Model CanRCM4 over North America reveal the high uncertainties inherent in PMP estimates and the non-validity of the assumption that PMP events have maximum moisture availability. This later assumption leads to overestimation of the PMP by an average of about 15% over North America, which may have serious implications for engineering design.

Effects of historical land-cover changes on flooding and sedimentation, North Fish Creek, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fitzpatrick, Faith A.; Knox, James C.; Whitman, Heather E.

1999-01-01

Results from hydrologic and sediment-transport modeling indicate that modern flood peaks and sediment loads in North Fish Creek may be double that expected under pre-settlement forest cover. During maximum agricultural activity in the mid-1920's to mid-1930's, flood peaks probably were about 3 times larger and sediment loads were about 5 times larger than expected under pre-settlement forest cover. These results indicate that future changes from pasture or cropland to forest will help reduce flood peaks, thereby reducing erosion and sedimentation. The addition of detention basins (to decrease flood peaks) on tributaries to North Fish Creek, or bank and instream restoration (to decrease erosion) in the upper main stem, also may help reduce the contribution of sediment from the upper main stem to the transitional section and lower main stem of the creek.

Evaluation of the flood hydrology in the Colorado Front Range using precipitation, streamflow, and paleoflood data for the Big Thompson River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, R.D.; Costa, J.E.

1988-01-01

A multidisciplinary study of precipitation and streamflow data and paleohydrologic studies of channel features was made to analyze the flood hydrology of foothill and mountain streams in the Front Range of Colorado, with emphasis on the Big Thompson River basin, because conventional hydrologic analyses do not adequately characterize the flood hydrology. In the foothills of Colorado, annual floodflows are derived from snowmelt at high elevations in the mountain regions, from rainfall at low elevation in the plains or plateau regions, or from a combination of rain falling on snow or mixed population hydrology. Above approximately 7,500 ft, snowmelt dominates; rain does not contribute to the flood potential. Regional flood-frequency relations were developed and compared with conventional flood-estimating technique results, including an evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of the probable maximum flood. Evaluation of streamflow data and paleoflood investigations provide an alternative for evaluating flood hydrology and the safety of dams. The study indicates the need for additional data collection and research to understand the complexities of the flood hydrology in mountainous regions, especially its effects on flood-plain management and the design of structures in the flood plain. (USGS)

A computer program for estimating instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Peter M.

2006-01-01

The Yellowstone River is very important in a variety of ways to the residents of southeastern Montana; however, it is especially vulnerable to spilled contaminants. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Montana Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a study to develop a computer program to rapidly estimate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River using regression equations developed in 1999 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The purpose of this report is to describe these equations and their limitations, describe the development of a computer program to apply the equations to the Yellowstone River, and provide detailed instructions on how to use the program. This program is available online at [http://pubs.water.usgs.gov/sir2006-5057/includes/ytot.xls]. The regression equations provide estimates of instream travel times and concentrations in rivers where little or no contaminant-transport data are available. Equations were developed and presented for the most probable flow velocity and the maximum probable flow velocity. These velocity estimates can then be used to calculate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant. The computer program was developed so estimation equations for instream travel times and concentrations can be solved quickly for sites along the Yellowstone River between Corwin Springs and Sidney, Montana. The basic types of data needed to run the program are spill data, streamflow data, and data for locations of interest along the Yellowstone River. Data output from the program includes spill location, river mileage at specified locations, instantaneous discharge, mean-annual discharge, drainage area, and channel slope. Travel times and concentrations are provided for estimates of the most probable velocity of the peak concentration and the maximum probable velocity of the peak concentration. Verification of estimates of instream travel times and concentrations for the Yellowstone River requires information about the flow velocity throughout the 520 mi of river in the study area. Dye-tracer studies would provide the best data about flow velocities and would provide the best verification of instream travel times and concentrations estimated from this computer program; however, data from such studies does not currently (2006) exist and new studies would be expensive and time-consuming. An alternative approach used in this study for verification of instream travel times is based on the use of flood-wave velocities determined from recorded streamflow hydrographs at selected mainstem streamflow-gaging stations along the Yellowstone River. The ratios of flood-wave velocity to the most probable velocity for the base flow estimated from the computer program are within the accepted range of 2.5 to 4.0 and indicate that flow velocities estimated from the computer program are reasonable for the Yellowstone River. The ratios of flood-wave velocity to the maximum probable velocity are within a range of 1.9 to 2.8 and indicate that the maximum probable flow velocities estimated from the computer program, which corresponds to the shortest travel times and maximum probable concentrations, are conservative and reasonable for the Yellowstone River.

An operational real-time flood forecasting system in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, Enrique; Coccia, Gabriele; Todini, Ezio

2015-04-01

A real-time flood forecasting system has been operating since year 2012 as a non-structural measure for mitigating the flood risk in Campania Region (Southern Italy), within the Sele river basin (3.240 km2). The Sele Flood Forecasting System (SFFS) has been built within the FEWS (Flood Early Warning System) platform developed by Deltares and it assimilates the numerical weather predictions of the COSMO LAM family: the deterministic COSMO-LAMI I2, the deterministic COSMO-LAMI I7 and the ensemble numerical weather predictions COSMO-LEPS (16 members). Sele FFS is composed by a cascade of three main models. The first model is a fully continuous physically based distributed hydrological model, named TOPKAPI-eXtended (Idrologia&Ambiente s.r.l., Naples, Italy), simulating the dominant processes controlling the soil water dynamics, runoff generation and discharge with a spatial resolution of 250 m. The second module is a set of Neural-Networks (ANN) built for forecasting the river stages at a set of monitored cross-sections. The third component is a Model Conditional Processor (MCP), which provides the predictive uncertainty (i.e., the probability of occurrence of a future flood event) within the framework of a multi-temporal forecast, according to the most recent advancements on this topic (Coccia and Todini, HESS, 2011). The MCP provides information about the probability of exceedance of a maximum river stage within the forecast lead time, by means of a discrete time function representing the variation of cumulative probability of exceeding a river stage during the forecast lead time and the distribution of the time occurrence of the flood peak, starting from one or more model forecasts. This work shows the Sele FFS performance after two years of operation, evidencing the added-values that can provide to a flood early warning and emergency management system.

Flood of August 24–25, 2016, Upper Iowa River and Turkey River, northeastern Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linhart, S. Mike; O'Shea, Padraic S.

2018-02-05

Major flooding occurred August 24–25, 2016, in the Upper Iowa River Basin and Turkey River Basin in northeastern Iowa following severe thunderstorm activity over the region. About 8 inches of rain were recorded for the 24-hour period ending at 4 p.m., August 24, at Decorah, Iowa, and about 6 inches of rain were recorded for the 24-hour period ending at 7 a.m., August 24, at Cresco, Iowa, about 14 miles northwest of Spillville, Iowa. A maximum peak-of-record discharge of 38,000 cubic feet per second in the Upper Iowa River at streamgage 05388250 Upper Iowa River near Dorchester, Iowa, occurred on August 24, 2016, with an annual exceedance-probability range of 0.2–1 percent. High-water marks were measured at six locations along the Upper Iowa River between State Highway 26 near the mouth at the Mississippi River and State Highway 76 about 3.5 miles south of Dorchester, Iowa, a distance of 15 river miles. Along the profiled reach of the Turkey River, a maximum peak-of-record discharge of 15,300 cubic feet per second at streamgage 05411600 Turkey River at Spillville, Iowa, occurred on August 24, 2016, with an annual exceedance-probability range of 1–2 percent. A maximum peak discharge of 35,700 cubic feet per second occurred on August 25, 2016, along the profiled reach of the Turkey River at streamgage 05411850 Turkey River near Eldorado, Iowa, with an annual exceedance-probability range of 0.2–1 percent. High-water marks were measured at 11 locations along the Turkey River between County Road B64 in Elgin and 220th Street, located about 4.5 miles northwest of Spillville, Iowa, a distance of 58 river miles. The high-water marks were used to develop flood profiles for the Upper Iowa River and Turkey River.

Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, Karin; Kapnick, Sarah B.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Whan, Kirien; Philip, Sjoukje; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Singh, Roop K.; Arrighi, Julie; Cullen, Heidi

2017-02-01

A stationary low pressure system and elevated levels of precipitable water provided a nearly continuous source of precipitation over Louisiana, United States (US), starting around 10 August 2016. Precipitation was heaviest in the region broadly encompassing the city of Baton Rouge, with a 3-day maximum found at a station in Livingston, LA (east of Baton Rouge), from 12 to 14 August 2016 (648.3 mm, 25.5 inches). The intense precipitation was followed by inland flash flooding and river flooding and in subsequent days produced additional backwater flooding. On 16 August, Louisiana officials reported that 30 000 people had been rescued, nearly 10 600 people had slept in shelters on the night of 14 August and at least 60 600 homes had been impacted to varying degrees. As of 17 August, the floods were reported to have killed at least 13 people. As the disaster was unfolding, the Red Cross called the flooding the worst natural disaster in the US since Super Storm Sandy made landfall in New Jersey on 24 October 2012. Before the floodwaters had receded, the media began questioning whether this extreme event was caused by anthropogenic climate change. To provide the necessary analysis to understand the potential role of anthropogenic climate change, a rapid attribution analysis was launched in real time using the best readily available observational data and high-resolution global climate model simulations. The objective of this study is to show the possibility of performing rapid attribution studies when both observational and model data and analysis methods are readily available upon the start. It is the authors' aspiration that the results be used to guide further studies of the devastating precipitation and flooding event. Here, we present a first estimate of how anthropogenic climate change has affected the likelihood of a comparable extreme precipitation event in the central US Gulf Coast. While the flooding event of interest triggering this study occurred in south Louisiana, for the purposes of our analysis, we have defined an extreme precipitation event by taking the spatial maximum of annual 3-day inland maximum precipitation over the region of 29-31° N, 85-95° W, which we refer to as the central US Gulf Coast. Using observational data, we find that the observed local return time of the 12-14 August precipitation event in 2016 is about 550 years (95 % confidence interval (CI): 450-1450). The probability for an event like this to happen anywhere in the region is presently 1 in 30 years (CI 11-110). We estimate that these probabilities and the intensity of extreme precipitation events of this return time have increased since 1900. A central US Gulf Coast extreme precipitation event has effectively become more likely in 2016 than it was in 1900. The global climate models tell a similar story; in the most accurate analyses, the regional probability of 3-day extreme precipitation increases by more than a factor of 1.4 due to anthropogenic climate change. The magnitude of the shift in probabilities is greater in the 25 km (higher-resolution) climate model than in the 50 km model. The evidence for a relation to El Niño half a year earlier is equivocal, with some analyses showing a positive connection and others none.

Evaluation of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood under Climate Change in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Rastogi, D.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Kabela, E.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Singh, N.; Preston, B. L.; Mei, R.

2016-12-01

Critical infrastructures are potentially vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events. Under a warming environment, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase enhancing the needs to more accurately quantify the risks due to climate change. In this study, we utilized an integrated modeling framework that includes the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and a high resolution distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) to simulate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) events over Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin. A total of 120 storms were selected to simulate moisture maximized PMP under different meteorological forcings, including historical storms driven by Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and baseline (1981-2010), near term future (2021-2050) and long term future (2071-2100) storms driven by Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) under Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 emission scenario. We also analyzed the sensitivity of PMF to various antecedent hydrologic conditions such as initial soil moisture conditions and tested different compulsive approaches. Overall, a statistical significant increase is projected for future PMP and PMF, mainly attributed to the increase of background air temperature. The ensemble of simulated PMP and PMF along with their sensitivity allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydro-climatic extreme events on critical energy-water infrastructures such as major hydropower dams and nuclear power plants.

Floods of December 1964 and January 1965 in the Far Western States; Part 1 Description

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waananen, A.O.; Harris, D.D.; Williams, R.C.

1971-01-01

The floods of December 1964 and January 1965 in the Far Western States were extreme; in many areas, the greatest in the history of recorded streamflow and substantially greater than those of December 1955. An unusually large area--Oregon, most of Idaho, northern California, southern Washington, and small areas in western and northern Nevada--was involved. It exceeded the area flooded in 1955. Outstanding features included recordbreaking peak discharges, high sediment concentrations, large sediment loads, and extensive flood damage. The loss of 47 lives and direct property damage of more than $430 million was attributable to the floods. Yet, storage in reservoirs and operation of flood-control facilities were effective in preventing far greater damages in many areas, particularly in the Central Valley in California and the Willamette River basin in Oregon. The floods were caused by three principal storms during the period December 19 to January 31. The December 19-23 storm was the greatest in overall intensity and areal extent. Crests occurred on many major streams December 23, 1964, 9 years to the day after the great flood of December 23, 1955. The January 2-7 storm produced extreme floods in some basins in California. The January 21-31 storm produced maximum stages in some streams in northeastern Oregon and southeastern Washington and a repetition of high flows in part of the Willamette River basin and in some basins in coastal Oregon. All the storms, and particularly the warm torrential rain December 21-23, reflected the combined effect of moist unstable airmasses, strong west-southwest winds, and mountain ranges oriented nearly at right angles to the flow of air. High air temperatures and strong winds associated with the storms caused melting of snow, and the meltwater augmented the rain that fell on frozen ground. The coastal areas of northern California and southern Oregon had measurable rain on as many as 50 days in December and January. A maximum precipitation of nearly 69 inches in the 2-month period was recorded in southern Oregon, and recorded runoff at several streamflow-measurement stations indicates that greater precipitation probably occurred at higher altitudes in these areas. Flood runoff in streams, not affected by regulation, exceeded any previously recorded throughout much of the area. Some streams that had particularly notable floods are: Deep and Plush Creeks in the Great Basin ix Oregon, where the maximum flows were nearly twice those of the record floods of 1963 ; Thomes Creek, a west-side Sacramento River tributary in the Central Valley, where the maximum flow was 160 percent of the record peak of 1955; Eel, Klamath, and Smith Rivers in north-coastal California, where the catastrophic peak flows were about 1-1/3 times the floods of 1955 and the legendary winter floods of 1861-62 and inundated, damaged, or destroyed nearly all communities along the main rivers; Grande Ronde River in the lower Snake River basin, where the peak discharge at La Grande was 1.6 times the previous maximum flow during 57 years of record; John Day River in the lower Columbia River basin, where the peak discharge at the McDonald Ferry gaging station exceeded the historic peak of 1894; many Willamette River tributaries, where maximum flows exceeded previous record flows; and the Rogue River in coastal Oregon, where the maximum flow of about 500,000 cfs below the Illinois River near Agness was 86,000 cfs greater than the previous maximum in a 74-year record. The partly regulated flow of the Willamette River far exceeded that in 1955. The suspended-sediment concentration and load of most streams greatly exceeded any that had been measured previously in the flood area. In Idaho, Washington, and Oregon, the ground thaw that preceded the period of high runoff resulted in conditions conducive to severe erosion of the uplands and subsequent deposition on flooded stream terraces. The greatest concentrations of suspended sedimen

Preliminary flood-duration frequency estimates using naturalized streamflow records for the Willamette River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lind, Greg D.; Stonewall, Adam J.

2018-02-13

In this study, “naturalized” daily streamflow records, created by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation, were used to compute 1-, 3-, 7-, 10-, 15-, 30-, and 60-day annual maximum streamflow durations, which are running averages of daily streamflow for the number of days in each duration. Once the annual maximum durations were computed, the floodduration frequencies could be estimated. The estimated flood-duration frequencies correspond to the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent probabilities of their occurring or being exceeded each year. For this report, the focus was on the Willamette River Basin in Oregon, which is a subbasin of the Columbia River Basin. This study is part of a larger one encompassing the entire Columbia Basin.

Dealing with uncertainty in the probability of overtopping of a flood mitigation dam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michailidi, Eleni Maria; Bacchi, Baldassare

2017-05-01

In recent years, copula multivariate functions were used to model, probabilistically, the most important variables of flood events: discharge peak, flood volume and duration. However, in most of the cases, the sampling uncertainty, from which small-sized samples suffer, is neglected. In this paper, considering a real reservoir controlled by a dam as a case study, we apply a structure-based approach to estimate the probability of reaching specific reservoir levels, taking into account the key components of an event (flood peak, volume, hydrograph shape) and of the reservoir (rating curve, volume-water depth relation). Additionally, we improve information about the peaks from historical data and reports through a Bayesian framework, allowing the incorporation of supplementary knowledge from different sources and its associated error. As it is seen here, the extra information can result in a very different inferred parameter set and consequently this is reflected as a strong variability of the reservoir level, associated with a given return period. Most importantly, the sampling uncertainty is accounted for in both cases (single-site and multi-site with historical information scenarios), and Monte Carlo confidence intervals for the maximum water level are calculated. It is shown that water levels of specific return periods in a lot of cases overlap, thus making risk assessment, without providing confidence intervals, deceiving.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beckman, Emil W.

1976-01-01

Observed maximum flood peaks at 303 gaging stations with 13 or more years of record and significant peaks at 57 short-term stations and 31 miscellaneous sites are useful in designing flood-control works for maximum safety from flood damage. Comparison is made with maximum observed floods in the United States.

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froidevaux, P.; Schwanbeck, J.; Weingartner, R.; Chevalier, C.; Martius, O.

2015-09-01

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered - more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed - allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3-4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froidevaux, P.; Schwanbeck, J.; Weingartner, R.; Chevalier, C.; Martius, O.

2015-03-01

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. We analyze catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high amount of floods considered - more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed - allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, we propose a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to one month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g. a stationary low-pressure system). Because we consider a high number of events and because we work with daily precipitation values, we do not separate the "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation. The whole precipitation recorded during the flood day is included in the short-range antecedent precipitation. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the exit of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last three days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The weak influence of PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Prealpine, Alpine and Southalpine Swiss catchments. Our study nevertheless poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. We conclude that the consideration of a 3-4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Integrating Physical and Topographic Information Into a Fuzzy Scheme to Map Flooded Area by SAR.

PubMed

Pierdicca, Nazzareno; Chini, Marco; Pulvirenti, Luca; Macina, Flavia

2008-07-10

A flood mapping procedure based on a fuzzy sets theory has been developed. The method is based on the integration of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) measurements with additional data on the inundated area, such as a land cover map and a digital elevation model (DEM). The information on land cover has allowed us to account for both specular reflection, typical of open water, and double bounce backscattering, typical of forested and urban areas. DEM has been exploited to include simple hydraulic considerations on the dependence of inundation probability on surface characteristics. Contextual information has been taken into account too. The proposed algorithm has been tested on a flood occurred in Italy on November 1994. A pair of ERS-1 images, collected before and after (three days later) the flood, has been used. The results have been compared with the data provided by a ground survey carried out when the flood reached its maximum extension. Despite the temporal mismatch between the survey and the post-inundation SAR image, the comparison has yielded encouraging results, with the 87% of the pixels correctly classified as inundated.

Developing an Event-Tree Probabilistic Tsunami Inundation Model for NE Atlantic Coasts: Application to a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Matias, L.; Baptista, M. A.

2016-12-01

This study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth >0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment.

A fluvial and pluvial probabilistic flood hazard analysis for Can Tho city, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martinez, Oriol; Thi Chinh, Do; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2014-05-01

Can Tho city is the largest city and the economic heart of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Due to its economic importance and envisaged development goals the city grew rapidly in population size and extend over the last two decades. Large parts of the city are located in flood prone areas, and also the central parts of the city recently experienced an increasing number of flood events, both of fluvial and pluvial nature. As the economic power and asset values are constantly increasing, this poses a considerable risk for the city. The the aim of this study is to perform a flood hazard analysis considering both fluvial and pluvial floods and to derive probabilistic flood hazard maps. This requires in a first step an understanding of the typical flood mechanisms. Fluvial floods are triggered by a coincidence of high water levels during the annual flood period in the Mekong Delta with high tidal levels, which cause in combination short term inundations in Can Tho. Pluvial floods are triggered by typical tropical convective rain storms during the monsoon season. These two flood pathways are essentially independent in its sources and can thus be treated in the hazard analysis accordingly. For the fluvial hazard analysis we propose a bivariate frequency analysis of the Mekong flood characteristics, the annual maximum flood discharge Q and the annual flood volume V at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta, the gauging station Kratie. This defines probabilities of exceedance of different Q-V pairs, which are transferred into synthetic flood hydrographs. The synthetic hydrographs are routed through a quasi-2D hydrodynamic model of the entire Mekong Delta in order to provide boundary conditions for a detailed hazard mapping of Can Tho. This downscaling step is necessary, because the huge complexity of the river and channel network does not allow for a proper definition of boundary conditions for Can Tho city by gauge data alone. In addition the available gauge data around Can Tho are too short for a meaningful frequency analysis. The detailed hazard mapping is performed by a 2D hydrodynamic model for Can Tho city. As the scenarios are derived in a Monte-Carlo framework, the final flood hazard maps are probabilistic, i.e. show the median flood hazard along with uncertainty estimates for each defined level of probabilities of exceedance. For the pluvial flood hazard a frequency analysis of the hourly rain gauge data of Can Tho is performed implementing a peak-over-threshold procedure. Based on this frequency analysis synthetic rains storms are generated in a Monte-Carlo framework for the same probabilities of exceedance as in the fluvial flood hazard analysis. Probabilistic flood hazard maps were then generated with the same 2D hydrodynamic model for the city. In a last step the fluvial and pluvial scenarios are combined assuming independence of the events. These scenarios were also transferred into hazard maps by the 2D hydrodynamic model finally yielding combined fluvial-pluvial probabilistic flood hazard maps for Can Tho. The derived set of maps may be used for an improved city planning or a flood risk analysis.

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharge and Maximum Observed Peak Discharge in New Mexico and Surrounding Areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, Scott D.

2008-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable design of bridges, culverts, and open-channel hydraulic analysis, and for flood-hazard mapping in New Mexico and surrounding areas. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Mexico Department of Transportation, updated estimates of peak-discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and updated regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites by use of data collected through 2004 for 293 gaging stations on unregulated streams that have 10 or more years of record. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 140 of the 293 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge by having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each of the nine regions, logarithms of the maximum peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics by using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then were applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 38 to 93 percent (mean value is 62, and median value is 59) for the 100-year flood. The 1996 investigation standard error of prediction for the flood regions ranged from 41 to 96 percent (mean value is 67, and median value is 68) for the 100-year flood that was analyzed by using generalized least-squares regression analysis. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are more reliable than those in the 1996 report because of the increased length of record and improved geographic information system (GIS) method to determine basin and climatic characteristics. Flood-frequency estimates can be made for ungaged sites upstream or downstream from gaging stations by using a method that transfers flood-frequency data at the gaging station to the ungaged site by using a drainage-area ratio adjustment equation. The peak discharge for a given recurrence interval at the gaging station, drainage-area ratio, and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region is used to transfer the peak discharge for the recurrence interval to the ungaged site. Maximum observed peak discharge as related to drainage area was determined for New Mexico. Extreme events are commonly used in the design and appraisal of bridge crossings and other structures. Bridge-scour evaluations are commonly made by using the 500-year peak discharge for these appraisals. Peak-discharge data collected at 293 gaging stations and 367 miscellaneous sites were used to develop a maximum peak-discharge relation as an alternative method of estimating peak discharge of an extreme event such as a maximum probable flood.

Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

Flood of April 2007 and Flood-Frequency Estimates at Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Western Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2009-01-01

A spring nor'easter affected the East Coast of the United States from April 15 to 18, 2007. In Connecticut, rainfall varied from 3 inches to more than 7 inches. The combined effects of heavy rainfall over a short duration, high winds, and high tides led to widespread flooding, storm damage, power outages, evacuations, and disruptions to traffic and commerce. The storm caused at least 18 fatalities (none in Connecticut). A Presidential Disaster Declaration was issued on May 11, 2007, for two counties in western Connecticut - Fairfield and Litchfield. This report documents hydrologic and meteorologic aspects of the April 2007 flood and includes estimates of the magnitude of the peak discharges and peak stages during the flood at 28 streamflow-gaging stations in western Connecticut. These data were used to perform flood-frequency analyses. Flood-frequency estimates provided in this report are expressed in terms of exceedance probabilities (the probability of a flood reaching or exceeding a particular magnitude in any year). Flood-frequency estimates for the 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.002 exceedance probabilities (also expressed as 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2- percent exceedance probability, respectively) were computed for 24 of the 28 streamflow-gaging stations. Exceedance probabilities can further be expressed in terms of recurrence intervals (2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval, respectively). Flood-frequency estimates computed in this study were compared to the flood-frequency estimates used to derive the water-surface profiles in previously published Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Studies. The estimates in this report update and supersede previously published flood-frequency estimates for streamflowgaging stations in Connecticut by incorporating additional years of annual peak discharges, including the peaks for the April 2007 flood. In the southwest coastal region of Connecticut, the April 2007 peak discharges for streamflow-gaging stations with records extending back to 1955 were the second highest peak discharges on record; the 1955 annual peak discharges are the highest peak discharges in the station records. In the Housatonic and South Central Coast Basins, the April 2007 peak discharges for streamflow-gaging stations with records extending back to 1930 or earlier ranked between the fourth and eighth highest discharges on record, with the 1936, 1938, and 1955 floods as the largest floods in the station records. The peak discharges for the April 2007 flood have exceedance probabilities ranging between 0.10 to 0.02 (a 10- to 2-percent chance of being exceeded in a given year, respectively) with the majority (80 percent) of the stations having exceedance probabilities between 0.10 to 0.04. At three stations - Norwalk River at South Wilton, Pootatuck River at Sandy Hook, and Still River at Robertsville - the April 2007 peak discharges have an exceedance probability of 0.02. Flood-frequency estimates made after the April 2007 flood were compared to flood-frequency estimates used to derive the water-surface profiles (also called flood profiles) in FEMA Flood Insurance Studies developed for communities. In general, the comparison indicated that at the 0.10 exceedance probability (a 10-percent change of being exceeded in a given year), the discharges from the current (2007) flood-frequency analysis are larger than the discharges in the FEMA Flood Insurance Studies, with a median change of about +10 percent. In contrast, at the 0.01 exceedance probability (a 1-percent change of being exceeded in a year), the discharges from the current flood-frequency analysis are smaller than the discharges in the FEMA Flood Insurance Studies, with a median change of about -13 percent. Several stations had more than + 25 percent change in discharges at the 0.10 exceedance probability and are in the following communities: Winchester (Still River at Robertsv

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding.

PubMed

ten Veldhuis, J A E; Clemens, F H L R; van Gelder, P H A J M

2009-01-01

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk generally focus on heavy storm events as the principal cause of flooding. Conversely, fault tree analysis is a technique that aims at modelling all potential causes of flooding. It quantifies both overall flood probability and relative contributions of individual causes of flooding. This paper presents a fault model for urban flooding and an application to the case of Haarlem, a city of 147,000 inhabitants. Data from a complaint register, rainfall gauges and hydrodynamic model calculations are used to quantify probabilities of basic events in the fault tree. This results in a flood probability of 0.78/week for Haarlem. It is shown that gully pot blockages contribute to 79% of flood incidents, whereas storm events contribute only 5%. This implies that for this case more efficient gully pot cleaning is a more effective strategy to reduce flood probability than enlarging drainage system capacity. Whether this is also the most cost-effective strategy can only be decided after risk assessment has been complemented with a quantification of consequences of both types of events. To do this will be the next step in this study.

Optimal Hedging Rule for Reservoir Refill Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, W.; Zhao, J.; Lund, J. R.; Zhao, T.; Lei, X.; Wang, H.

2015-12-01

This paper develops an optimal reservoir Refill Hedging Rule (RHR) for combined water supply and flood operation using mathematical analysis. A two-stage model is developed to formulate the trade-off between operations for conservation benefit and flood damage in the reservoir refill season. Based on the probability distribution of the maximum refill water availability at the end of the second stage, three zones are characterized according to the relationship among storage capacity, expected storage buffer (ESB), and maximum safety excess discharge (MSED). The Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions of the model show that the optimality of the refill operation involves making the expected marginal loss of conservation benefit from unfilling (i.e., ending storage of refill period less than storage capacity) as nearly equal to the expected marginal flood damage from levee overtopping downstream as possible while maintaining all constraints. This principle follows and combines the hedging rules for water supply and flood management. A RHR curve is drawn analogously to water supply hedging and flood hedging rules, showing the trade-off between the two objectives. The release decision result has a linear relationship with the current water availability, implying the linearity of RHR for a wide range of water conservation functions (linear, concave, or convex). A demonstration case shows the impacts of factors. Larger downstream flood conveyance capacity and empty reservoir capacity allow a smaller current release and more water can be conserved. Economic indicators of conservation benefit and flood damage compete with each other on release, the greater economic importance of flood damage is, the more water should be released in the current stage, and vice versa. Below a critical value, improving forecasts yields less water release, but an opposing effect occurs beyond this critical value. Finally, the Danjiangkou Reservoir case study shows that the RHR together with a rolling horizon decision approach can lead to a gradual dynamic refilling, indicating its potential for practical use.

Flood characteristics of Oklahoma streams techniques for calculating magnitude and frequency of floods in Oklahoma, with compilations of flood data through 1971

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Vernon B.

1974-01-01

The 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods are related to basin and climatic parameters for natural streams in Oklahoma by multiple regression techniques through the mathematical model, Qx=aAbScPd,where Qx is peak discharge for recurrence interval x, A is contributing drainage area, S is main channel slope, P is mean annual precipitation, and a, b, c, and d are regression constants and coefficients. One equation for each recurrence interval applies statewide for all natural streams of less than 2,500 mil (6,500 km2), except where manmade works, such as dams, flood-detention structures, levees, channelization, and urban development, appreciably affect flood runoff. The equations can be used to estimate flood frequency of a stream at an ungaged site if drainage area size, main channel slope, and mean annual precipitation are known. At or near gaged sites, a weighted average of the regression results and the gaging station data is recommended.Individual relations of flood magnitude to contributing drainage area are given for all or parts of the main stems of the Arkansas, Salt Fork Arkansas, Cimarron, North Canadian, Canadian, Washita, North Fork Red, and Red Rivers. Parts of some of these streams, and all of the Neosho and Verdigris Rivers are not included because the effects of. major regulation from large reservoirs cannot be evaluated within the scope of the report. Graphical relations of maximum floods of record for eastern and western Oklahoma provide a guide to maximum probable floods. A random sampling of the seasonal occurrence of floods indicated about two-thirds of all annual floods in Oklahoma occur during. April through July. Less than one-half of one percent of annual floods occur in December. A compilation of flood records at all gaging sites in Oklahoma and some selected sites in adjacent States is given in an appendix. Basin and climatic parameters and log-Pearson Type III frequency data and statistics are given for most station records. A second appendix gives a reprint of the U.S. Water Resources Council Bulletin 15 which describes procedures for fitting a log-Pearson Type III distribution to gaging station data.

Map showing flood and surface water information in the Sugar House quadrangle, Salt Lake County, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Horn, Richard; Fields, F.K.

1974-01-01

In the past man has built on land that might be covered by floodwaters, with little consideration of the consequences. The result has been disastrous to those in the path of floodwaters and has cost the loss of thousands of lives and untold billions of dollars in property damage in the United States. Salt Lake County, of which the Sugar House quadrangle is a part, has had many floods in the past and can be expected to have more in the future. Construction has taken place in filled or dried-up marshes and lakes, in spring areas, and even in stream channels. Lack of prior knowledge of these and other forms of surface water (water at the surface of the ground) can increase construction and maintenance costs significantly.The map shows the area that probably will be covered by floods at least once in every 100 years on the long-term average (unit IRF, intermediate regional flood), the area that probably will be covered by floods from the worst possible combination of very wet weather and high streamflow reasonably expected of the area (unit SPF, standard project flood), the mapped extent of streamflow by channel shifting or flooding in the past 5,000 years (unit fa), and the probable maximum extent of damaging flash floods and mudflows from small valleys in the Wasatch Range. The map also shows the location of water at the surface of the ground: lakes, streams, springs, weep holes, canals, and reservoirs. Lakes and marshes that existed within the past 100 years, but now are drained, filled, or dried up, are also shown.The following examples show that the presence of water can be desirable or undesirable, depending on how the water occurs. Floods, the most spectacular form of surface water, may result in great property damage and loss of life. Lakes normally are beneficial, in that they may support plant growth and provide habitats for fish and other wildlife, provide water for livestock, and can be used for recreation. Springs may or may not be desirable: they may provide a source of water for domestic or stock use but are undesirable if they appear in a foundation excavation for a building. Thus, the location of areas that may be affected by floods and other surface water is important to people concerned with land-use planning, zoning, and legislation, and with the environment in which we must live.

Summary of U.S. Geological Survey reports documenting flood profiles of streams in Iowa, 1963-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.

2014-01-01

This report is part of an ongoing program that is publishing flood profiles of streams in Iowa. The program is managed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Transportation and the Iowa Highway Research Board (Project HR-140). Information from flood profiles is used by engineers to analyze and design bridges, culverts, and roadways. This report summarizes 47 U.S. Geological Survey flood-profile reports that were published for streams in Iowa during a 50-year period from 1963 to 2012. Flood events profiled in the reports range from 1903 to 2010. Streams in Iowa that have been selected for the preparation of flood-profile reports typically have drainage areas of 100 square miles or greater, and the documented flood events have annual exceedance probabilities of less than 2 to 4 percent. This report summarizes flood-profile measurements, changes in flood-profile report content throughout the years, streams that were profiled in the reports, the occurrence of flood events profiled, and annual exceedance-probability estimates of observed flood events. To develop flood profiles for selected flood events for selected stream reaches, the U.S. Geological Survey measured high-water marks and river miles at selected locations. A total of 94 stream reaches have been profiled in U.S. Geological Survey flood-profile reports. Three rivers in Iowa have been profiled along the same stream reach for five different flood events and six rivers in Iowa have been profiled along the same stream reach for four different flood events. Floods were profiled for June flood events for 18 different years, followed by July flood events for 13 years, May flood events for 11 years, and April flood events for 9 years. Most of the flood-profile reports include estimates of annual exceedance probabilities of observed flood events at streamgages located along profiled stream reaches. Comparisons of 179 historic and updated annual exceedance-probability estimates indicate few differences that are considered substantial between the historic and updated estimates for the observed flood events. Overall, precise comparisons for 114 observed flood events indicate that updated annual exceedance probabilities have increased for most of the observed flood events compared to the historic annual exceedance probabilities. Multiple large flood events exceeding the 2-percent annual exceedance-probability discharge estimate occurred at 37 of 98 selected streamgages during 1960–2012. Five large flood events were recorded at two streamgages in Ames during 1990–2010 and four large flood events were recorded at four other streamgages during 1973–2010. Results of Kendall’s tau trend-analysis tests for 35 of 37 selected streamgages indicate that a statistically significant trend is not evident for the 1963–2012 period of record; nor is an overall clear positive or negative trend evident for the 37 streamgages.

Integrating Entropy-Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Chen, Yun; Wu, Jianping; Gao, Lei; Barrett, Damian; Xu, Tingbao; Li, Xiaojuan; Li, Linyi; Huang, Chang; Yu, Jia

2017-04-01

Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics-based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB-based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image-based sampling and validation, cell-by-cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood-related environmental hazard studies. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Improving flash flood frequency analyses by using non-systematic dendrogeomorphic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; María Bodoque, Jose; Garrote, Julio; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Aroca-Jimenez, Estefania

2017-04-01

Flash floods have a rapid hydrological response in catchments with short lag times, characterized by ''peaky'' hydrographs. The peak flows are reached within a few hours, thus giving little or no advance warning to prevent and mitigate flood damage. As a result, flash floods may result in a high social risk, as shown for instance by the 1997 Biescas disaster in Spain. The analysis and management of flood risk are clearly conditioned by data availability, especially in mountain areas where usually flash-floods occur. Nevertheless, in mountain basins there is often short data series available that are not accurate in terms of statistical significance. In addition, when flow data is ready for use maximum annual values are generally not as reliable as average flow values, since conventional stream gauge stations may not record the extreme floods, leading to gaps in the time series. Dendrogeomorphology has been shown to be especially useful for improving flood frequency analyses in catchments where short flood series limit the use of conventional hydrological methods. This study presents pros and cons of using a given probability distribution function, such as the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to account for non-systematic data provided by dendrogeomorphic techniques, in order to asses flood quantile estimates accuracy. To this end, we have considered a set of locations in Central Spain, where systematic flow available at a gauging site can be extended with non-systematic data obtained from implementation of dendrogeomorphic techniques.

The Chena River Watershed Hydrology Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-01

Moose Creek Dam Pro- ject and determine the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) hydrograph. The Chena River water- shed covers 2115 mi2 . It is characterized...Tanana River in Fairbanks, AK (Figure 1). The watershed has a total area of 2115 mi2 , and elevations range from 420 ft at the outlet to 5280 ft at...physical characteristics. Sub- basin Description Area ( mi2 ) Longest flow path (mi) Elevation at divide (ft) Elevation at outlet (ft

Flood Hazard Mapping by Applying Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, K. Y.; Lee, J. Y.; Keum, H.; Kim, B. J.; Kim, T. H.

2017-12-01

There are lots of technical methods to integrate various factors for flood hazard mapping. The purpose of this study is to suggest the methodology of integrated flood hazard mapping using MCDM(Multi Criteria Decision Making). MCDM problems involve a set of alternatives that are evaluated on the basis of conflicting and incommensurate criteria. In this study, to apply MCDM to assessing flood risk, maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time are considered as criterion, and each applied elements are considered as alternatives. The scheme to find the efficient alternative closest to a ideal value is appropriate way to assess flood risk of a lot of element units(alternatives) based on various flood indices. Therefore, TOPSIS which is most commonly used MCDM scheme is adopted to create flood hazard map. The indices for flood hazard mapping(maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time) have uncertainty concerning simulation results due to various values according to flood scenario and topographical condition. These kind of ambiguity of indices can cause uncertainty of flood hazard map. To consider ambiguity and uncertainty of criterion, fuzzy logic is introduced which is able to handle ambiguous expression. In this paper, we made Flood Hazard Map according to levee breach overflow using the Fuzzy TOPSIS Technique. We confirmed the areas where the highest grade of hazard was recorded through the drawn-up integrated flood hazard map, and then produced flood hazard map can be compared them with those indicated in the existing flood risk maps. Also, we expect that if we can apply the flood hazard map methodology suggested in this paper even to manufacturing the current flood risk maps, we will be able to make a new flood hazard map to even consider the priorities for hazard areas, including more varied and important information than ever before. Keywords : Flood hazard map; levee break analysis; 2D analysis; MCDM; Fuzzy TOPSIS Acknowlegement This research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B079625-04) from Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

The Complex Relationship Between Heavy Storms and Floods: Implication on Stormwater Drainage design and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y.; Mortuza, M. R.; Moges, E.; Yan, E.; Li, H. Y.

2017-12-01

Due to the lack of historical and future streamflow data for flood frequency analysis at or near most drainage sites, it is a common practice to directly estimate the design flood (maximum discharge or volume of stream for a given return period) based on storm frequency analysis and the resulted Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Such analysis assumes a direct relationship between storms and floods with, for example, the 10-year rainfall expected to produce the 10-year flood. However, in reality, a storm is just one factor among the many other hydrological and metrological factors that can affect the peak flow and hydrograph. Consequently, a heavy storm does not necessarily always lead to flooding or a flood events with the same frequency. This is evident by the observed difference in the seasonality of heavy storms and floods in most regions. In order to understand site specific causal-effect relationship between heavy storms and floods and improve the flood analysis for stormwater drainage design and management, we have examined the contributions of various factors that affect floods using statistical and information theory methods. Based on the identified dominant causal-effect relationships, hydrologic and probability analyses were conducted to develop the runoff IDF curves taking into consideration the snowmelt and rain-on-snow effect, the difference in the storm and flood seasonality, soil moisture conditions, and catchment potential for flash and riverine flooding. The approach was demonstrated using data from military installations located in different parts of the United States. The accuracy of the flood frequency analysis and the resulted runoff IDF curves were evaluated based on the runoff IDF curves developed from streamflow measurements.

Peak discharge, flood frequency, and peak stage of floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kohn, Michael S.; Stevens, Michael R.; Mommandi, Amanullah; Khan, Aziz R.

2017-12-14

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Big Cottonwood Creek site”), on August 23, 2016, and on Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Fountain Creek site”), on August 29, 2016. A one-dimensional hydraulic model was used to estimate the peak discharge. To define the flood frequency of each flood, peak-streamflow regional-regression equations or statistical analyses of USGS streamgage records were used to estimate annual exceedance probability of the peak discharge. A survey of the high-water mark profile was used to determine the peak stage, and the limitations and accuracy of each component also are presented in this report. Collection and computation of flood data, such as peak discharge, annual exceedance probability, and peak stage at structures critical to Colorado’s infrastructure are an important addition to the flood data collected annually by the USGS.The peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site was 917 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The peak discharge of the August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site was 5,970 ft3/s with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater).The August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.01 (return period greater than the 100-year flood) and had an annual exceedance probability of greater than 0.005 (return period less than the 200-year flood). The August 23, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm), which is a statistically common (high probability) storm. The Big Cottonwood Creek site is downstream from the Hayden Pass Fire burn area, which dramatically altered the hydrology of the watershed and caused this statistically rare (low probability) flood from a statistically common (high probability) storm. The peak flood stage at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 50 culvert was 6,438.32 feet (ft) above the North American Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).The August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site had an estimated annual exceedance probability of 0.5505 (return period equal to the 1.8-year flood). The August 29, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm). The peak stage during this flood at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 24 bridge was 5,832.89 ft (NAVD 88).Slope-area indirect discharge measurements were carried out at the Big Cottonwood Creek and Fountain Creek sites to estimate peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood and August 29, 2016, flood, respectively. The USGS computer program Slope-Area Computation Graphical User Interface was used to compute the peak discharge by adding the surveyed cross sections with Manning roughness coefficient assignments to the high-water marks. The Manning roughness coefficients for each cross section were estimated in the field using the Cowan method.

Integrating Physical and Topographic Information Into a Fuzzy Scheme to Map Flooded Area by SAR

PubMed Central

Pierdicca, Nazzareno; Chini, Marco; Pulvirenti, Luca; Macina, Flavia

2008-01-01

A flood mapping procedure based on a fuzzy sets theory has been developed. The method is based on the integration of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) measurements with additional data on the inundated area, such as a land cover map and a digital elevation model (DEM). The information on land cover has allowed us to account for both specular reflection, typical of open water, and double bounce backscattering, typical of forested and urban areas. DEM has been exploited to include simple hydraulic considerations on the dependence of inundation probability on surface characteristics. Contextual information has been taken into account too. The proposed algorithm has been tested on a flood occurred in Italy on November 1994. A pair of ERS-1 images, collected before and after (three days later) the flood, has been used. The results have been compared with the data provided by a ground survey carried out when the flood reached its maximum extension. Despite the temporal mismatch between the survey and the post-inundation SAR image, the comparison has yielded encouraging results, with the 87% of the pixels correctly classified as inundated. PMID:27879928

A methodology to derive Synthetic Design Hydrographs for river flood management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomirotti, Massimo; Mignosa, Paolo

2017-12-01

The design of flood protection measures requires in many cases not only the estimation of the peak discharges, but also of the volume of the floods and its time distribution. A typical solution to this kind of problems is the formulation of Synthetic Design Hydrographs (SDHs). In this paper a methodology to derive SDHs is proposed on the basis of the estimation of the Flow Duration Frequency (FDF) reduction curve and of a Peak-Duration (PD) relationship furnishing respectively the quantiles of the maximum average discharge and the average peak position in each duration. The methodology is intended to synthesize the main features of the historical floods in a unique SDH for each return period. The shape of the SDH is not selected a priori but is a result of the behaviour of FDF and PD curves, allowing to account in a very convenient way for the variability of the shapes of the observed hydrographs at local time scale. The validation of the methodology is performed with reference to flood routing problems in reservoirs, lakes and rivers. The results obtained demonstrate the capability of the SDHs to describe the effects of different hydraulic systems on the statistical regime of floods, even in presence of strong modifications induced on the probability distribution of peak flows.

Log Pearson type 3 quantile estimators with regional skew information and low outlier adjustments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffis, V.W.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Cohn, T.A.

2004-01-01

The recently developed expected moments algorithm (EMA) [Cohn et al., 1997] does as well as maximum likelihood estimations at estimating log‐Pearson type 3 (LP3) flood quantiles using systematic and historical flood information. Needed extensions include use of a regional skewness estimator and its precision to be consistent with Bulletin 17B. Another issue addressed by Bulletin 17B is the treatment of low outliers. A Monte Carlo study compares the performance of Bulletin 17B using the entire sample with and without regional skew with estimators that use regional skew and censor low outliers, including an extended EMA estimator, the conditional probability adjustment (CPA) from Bulletin 17B, and an estimator that uses probability plot regression (PPR) to compute substitute values for low outliers. Estimators that neglect regional skew information do much worse than estimators that use an informative regional skewness estimator. For LP3 data the low outlier rejection procedure generally results in no loss of overall accuracy, and the differences between the MSEs of the estimators that used an informative regional skew are generally modest in the skewness range of real interest. Samples contaminated to model actual flood data demonstrate that estimators which give special treatment to low outliers significantly outperform estimators that make no such adjustment.

Log Pearson type 3 quantile estimators with regional skew information and low outlier adjustments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffis, V. W.; Stedinger, J. R.; Cohn, T. A.

2004-07-01

The recently developed expected moments algorithm (EMA) [, 1997] does as well as maximum likelihood estimations at estimating log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) flood quantiles using systematic and historical flood information. Needed extensions include use of a regional skewness estimator and its precision to be consistent with Bulletin 17B. Another issue addressed by Bulletin 17B is the treatment of low outliers. A Monte Carlo study compares the performance of Bulletin 17B using the entire sample with and without regional skew with estimators that use regional skew and censor low outliers, including an extended EMA estimator, the conditional probability adjustment (CPA) from Bulletin 17B, and an estimator that uses probability plot regression (PPR) to compute substitute values for low outliers. Estimators that neglect regional skew information do much worse than estimators that use an informative regional skewness estimator. For LP3 data the low outlier rejection procedure generally results in no loss of overall accuracy, and the differences between the MSEs of the estimators that used an informative regional skew are generally modest in the skewness range of real interest. Samples contaminated to model actual flood data demonstrate that estimators which give special treatment to low outliers significantly outperform estimators that make no such adjustment.

Probabilistic mapping of flood-induced backscatter changes in SAR time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlaffer, Stefan; Chini, Marco; Giustarini, Laura; Matgen, Patrick

2017-04-01

The information content of flood extent maps can be increased considerably by including information on the uncertainty of the flood area delineation. This additional information can be of benefit in flood forecasting and monitoring. Furthermore, flood probability maps can be converted to binary maps showing flooded and non-flooded areas by applying a threshold probability value pF = 0.5. In this study, a probabilistic change detection approach for flood mapping based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time series is proposed. For this purpose, conditional probability density functions (PDFs) for land and open water surfaces were estimated from ENVISAT ASAR Wide Swath (WS) time series containing >600 images using a reference mask of permanent water bodies. A pixel-wise harmonic model was used to account for seasonality in backscatter from land areas caused by soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The approach was evaluated for a large-scale flood event along the River Severn, United Kingdom. The retrieved flood probability maps were compared to a reference flood mask derived from high-resolution aerial imagery by means of reliability diagrams. The obtained performance measures indicate both high reliability and confidence although there was a slight under-estimation of the flood extent, which may in part be attributed to topographically induced radar shadows along the edges of the floodplain. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of local incidence angle for the separability between flooded and non-flooded areas as specular reflection properties of open water surfaces increase with a more oblique viewing geometry.

Evaluation of probable maximum snow accumulation: Development of a methodology for climate change studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Iris M.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Frigon, Anne; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick

2016-06-01

Probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA) is one of the key variables used to estimate the spring probable maximum flood (PMF). A robust methodology for evaluating the PMSA is imperative so the ensuing spring PMF is a reasonable estimation. This is of particular importance in times of climate change (CC) since it is known that solid precipitation in Nordic landscapes will in all likelihood change over the next century. In this paper, a PMSA methodology based on simulated data from regional climate models is developed. Moisture maximization represents the core concept of the proposed methodology; precipitable water being the key variable. Results of stationarity tests indicate that CC will affect the monthly maximum precipitable water and, thus, the ensuing ratio to maximize important snowfall events. Therefore, a non-stationary approach is used to describe the monthly maximum precipitable water. Outputs from three simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model were used to give first estimates of potential PMSA changes for southern Quebec, Canada. A sensitivity analysis of the computed PMSA was performed with respect to the number of time-steps used (so-called snowstorm duration) and the threshold for a snowstorm to be maximized or not. The developed methodology is robust and a powerful tool to estimate the relative change of the PMSA. Absolute results are in the same order of magnitude as those obtained with the traditional method and observed data; but are also found to depend strongly on the climate projection used and show spatial variability.

Flood of June 8-9, 2008, Upper Iowa River, Northeast Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fischer, Edward E.; Eash, David A.

2010-01-01

Major flooding occurred June 8-9, 2008, in the Upper Iowa River Basin in northeast Iowa following severe thunderstorm activity over the region. About 7 inches of rain were recorded for the 48-hour period ending 4 p.m., June 8, at Decorah, Iowa; more than 7 inches of rain were recorded for the 48-hour period ending 7 a.m., June 8, at Dorchester, Iowa, about 17 miles northeast of Decorah. The maximum peak discharge measured in the Upper Iowa River was 34,100 cubic feet per second at streamgage 05387500 Upper Iowa River at Decorah, Iowa. This discharge is the largest discharge recorded in the Upper Iowa River Basin since streamgaging operations began in the basin in 1914. The flood-probability range of the peak discharge is 0.2 to 1 percent. High-water marks were measured at 15 locations along the Upper Iowa River between State Highway 26 near the mouth at the Mississippi River and U.S. Highway 63 at Chester, Iowa, a distance of 124 river miles. The high-water marks were used to develop a flood profile.

Scaling the flood regime with the soil hydraulic properties of the catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peña Rojas, Luis Eduardo; Francés García, Félix; Barrios Peña, Miguel

2015-04-01

The spatial land cover distribution and soil type affect the hydraulic properties of soils, facilitating or retarding the infiltration rate and the response of a catchment during flooding events. This research analyzes: 1) the effect of land cover use in different time periods as a source of annual maximum flood records nonstationarity; 2) the scalability of the relationship between soil hydraulic properties of the catchment (initial abstractions, upper soil capillary storage and vertical and horizontal hydraulic conductivity) and the flood regime. The study was conducted in Combeima River basin in Colombia - South America and it was modelled the changes in the land uses registered in 1991, 2000, 2002 and 2007, using distributed hydrological modelling and nonparametric tests. The results showed that changes in land use affect hydraulic properties of soil and it has influence on the magnitude of flood peaks. What is a new finding is that this behavior is scalable with the soil hydraulic properties of the catchment flood moments have a simple scaling behavior and the peaks flow increases with higher values of capillary soil storage, whereas higher values, the peaks decreased. Finally it was applied Generalized Extreme Values and it was found scalable behavior in the parameters of the probability distribution function. The results allowed us to find a relationship between soil hydraulic properties and the behavior of flood regime in the basin studied.

Flood hydrology and dam-breach hydraulic analyses of five reservoirs in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Michael R.; Hoogestraat, Galen K.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service has identified hazard concerns for areas downstream from five Colorado dams on Forest Service land. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Forest Service, initiated a flood hydrology analysis to estimate the areal extent of potential downstream flood inundation and hazard to downstream life, property, and infrastructure if dam breach occurs. Readily available information was used for dam-breach assessments of five small Colorado reservoirs (Balman Reservoir, Crystal Lake, Manitou Park Lake, McGinnis Lake, and Million Reservoir) that are impounded by an earthen dam, and no new data were collected for hydraulic modeling. For each reservoir, two dam-breach scenarios were modeled: (1) the dam is overtopped but does not fail (break), and (2) the dam is overtopped and dam-break occurs. The dam-breach scenarios were modeled in response to the 100-year recurrence, 500-year recurrence, and the probable maximum precipitation, 24-hour duration rainstorms to predict downstream flooding. For each dam-breach and storm scenario, a flood inundation map was constructed to estimate the extent of flooding in areas of concern downstream from each dam. Simulation results of the dam-break scenarios were used to determine the hazard classification of the dam structure (high, significant, or low), which is primarily based on the potential for loss of life and property damage resulting from the predicted downstream flooding.

Analysis of the high water wave volume for the Sava River near Zagreb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trninic, Dusan

2010-05-01

The paper analyses volumes of the Sava River high water waves near Zagreb during the period: 1926-2008 (N = 83 years), which is needed for more efficient control of high and flood waters. The primary Sava flood control structures in the City of Zagreb are dikes built on both riverbanks, and the Odra Relief Canal with lateral spillway upstream from the City of Zagreb. Intensive morphological changes in the greater Sava area near Zagreb, and anthropological and climate variations and changes at the Sava catchment up to the Zagreb area require detailed analysis of the water wave characteristics. In one analysis, maximum annual volumes are calculated for high water waves with constant duration of: 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 days. Such calculations encompass total quantity of water (basic and surface runoff). The log Pearson III distribution is adapted for this series of maximum annual volumes. Based on the results obtained, the interrelations are established between the wave volume as function of duration and occurrence probability. In addition to the analysis of maximum volumes of constant duration, it is interesting to carry out the analyses of maximum volume in excess of the reference discharge since it is very important for the flood control. To determine the reference discharges, a discharge of specific duration is used from an average discharge duration curve. The adopted reference discharges have durations of 50, 40, 30, 20 and 10%. Like in the previous case, log Pearson III distribution is adapted to the maximum wave data series. For reference discharge Q = 604 m3/s (duration 10%), a linear trend is calculated of maximum annual volumes exceeding the reference discharge for the Sava near Zagreb during the analyzed period. The analysis results show a significant decrease trend. A similar analysis is carried out for the following three reference discharges: regular flood control measures at the Sava near Zagreb, which are proclaimed when the water level is 350 cm (Q = 2114 m3/s), extraordinary flood control measures taken when the water level is 450 cm (Q = 2648 m3/s), and the discharge at the deterministic inlet into the Odra Canal of approximately Q = 2300 m3/s. The results of these analyses have shown that water wave volumes higher than the reference discharges occurred in a comparatively small number of years, and that their duration was one to two days.

Estimates of bridge scour at two sites on the Virgin River, southeastern Nevada, using a sediment-transport model and historical geomorphic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hilmes, M.M.; Vaill, J.E.

1997-01-01

A bridge-scour study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Nevada Department of Transportation, began in April 1996 to evaluate the Mesquite, Nevada, and Riverside, Nevada, bridges on the lower Virgin River using a sediment-transport model and historical geomorphic data. The BRIdge Stream Tube model for Alluvial River Simulation (BRI-STARS) was used to estimate bridge scour. The model was first calibrated using data for the Virgin River flood of March 12, 1995. Surveyed channel-geometry data were available at 11 cross sections for dates before and after the March 1995 flood to allow for evaluation of the model results. The model estimated the thalweg altitude within plus or minus 1 meter at 10 of the 11 cross sections. The calibrated model then was used to estimate the contraction, channel, pier, and total scour for synthesized hydrographs for 100- and 500-year floods at the two bridge sites. The estimated maximum total scour at the Mesquite bridge was 1.30 meters for the 100-year flood and 1.32 meters for the 500-year flood. The maximum total scour at the Riverside bridge was 1.90 meters for the 100-year flood and 2.01 meters for the 500-year flood. General scour was evaluated using stage-discharge relations at nearby streamflow-gaging stations, 1993-95 channel-geometry data, and channel-geometry data for the 100- and 500-year floods. On the basis of stage and discharge at the Littlefield, Arizona, gaging station, no long-term trend in aggradation or degradation was found. However, several cycles of aggradation and degradation had occurred during the period of record; the difference between the highest and lowest stage was 0.87 meter for a chosen low-flow discharge of 5.66 cubic meters per second for 1929-95. The value of 0.87 meter is probably the best estimate of general scour. The cross sections had an average scour depth of 0.07 meter between 1993 and 1994 and 0.16 meter between 1994 and 1995. The model simulated little general scour for the 100- and 500-year floods at the cross sections and did not give a good estimate of general scour, probably because the duration (days) of the floods used in the model was relatively short when compared with the duration (months or years) of geomorphic processes that influence long-term aggradation or degradation. Historical geomorphic changes of the Virgin River at the bridge sites and the causes of those changes were documented using aerial photographs from 1938-95 and other historical information. The Virgin River has become narrower and more sinuous through time, the vegetation on the flood plain has increased, and the channel has shifted laterally many times. The processes associated with these channel changes were found to be long-term changes in precipitation and streamflow; the duration, magnitude, and timing of floods; sediment-transport characteristics; channel avulsion; changes in density of vegetation; and anthropogenic influences.

Process-informed extreme value statistics- Why and how?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, Andreas; Fischer, Svenja

2017-04-01

In many parts of the world, annual maximum series (AMS) of runoff consist of flood peaks, which differ in their genesis. There are several aspects why these differences should be considered: Often multivariate flood characteristics (volumes, shapes) are of interest. These characteristics depend on the flood types. For regionalization, the main impacts on the flood regime has to be specified. If this regime depends on different flood types, type-specific hydro-meteorological and/or watershed characteristics are relevant. The ratios between event types often change over the range of observations. If a majority of events, which belongs to certain flood type, dominates the extrapolation of a probability distribution function (pdf), it is a problem if this more frequent type would not be typical for extraordinary large extremes, determining the right tail of the pdf. To consider differences in flood origin, several problems has to be solved. The events have to be separated into different groups according to their genesis. This can be a problem for long past events where e.g. precipitation data are not available. Another problem consists in the flood type-specific statistics. If block maxima are used, the sample of floods belong to a certain type is often incomplete as other events are overlaying smaller events. Some practical useable statistical tools to solve this and other problems are presented in a case study. Seasonal models were developed which differ between winter and summer floods but also between events with long and short timescales. The pdfs of the two groups of summer floods are combined via a new mixing model. The application to German watersheds demonstrates the advantages of the new model, giving specific influence to flood types.

Estimation of design floods in ungauged catchments using a regional index flood method. A case study of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobert, Joel; Mugo, Margaret; Gadain, Hussein

Reliable estimation of flood magnitudes corresponding to required return periods, vital for structural design purposes, is impacted by lack of hydrological data in the study area of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya. Use of regional information, derived from data at gauged sites and regionalized for use at any location within a homogenous region, would improve the reliability of the design flood estimation. Therefore, the regional index flood method has been applied. Based on data from 14 gauged sites, a delineation of the basin into two homogenous regions was achieved using elevation variation (90-m DEM), spatial annual rainfall pattern and Principal Component Analysis of seasonal rainfall patterns (from 94 rainfall stations). At site annual maximum series were modelled using the Log normal (LN) (3P), Log Logistic Distribution (LLG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distributions. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments. Goodness of fit tests were applied and the GEV was identified as the most appropriate model for each site. Based on the GEV model, flood quantiles were estimated and regional frequency curves derived from the averaged at site growth curves. Using the least squares regression method, relationships were developed between the index flood, which is defined as the Mean Annual Flood (MAF) and catchment characteristics. The relationships indicated area, mean annual rainfall and altitude were the three significant variables that greatly influence the index flood. Thereafter, estimates of flood magnitudes in ungauged catchments within a homogenous region were estimated from the derived equations for index flood and quantiles from the regional curves. These estimates will improve flood risk estimation and to support water management and engineering decisions and actions.

Assessment of Coastal and Urban Flooding Hazards Applying Extreme Value Analysis and Multivariate Statistical Techniques: A Case Study in Elwood, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rosbjerg, Dan; Madsen, Henrik

2016-04-01

Traditionally, flood risk assessment studies have been carried out from a univariate frequency analysis perspective. However, statistical dependence between hydrological variables, such as extreme rainfall and extreme sea surge, is plausible to exist, since both variables to some extent are driven by common meteorological conditions. Aiming to overcome this limitation, multivariate statistical techniques has the potential to combine different sources of flooding in the investigation. The aim of this study was to apply a range of statistical methodologies for analyzing combined extreme hydrological variables that can lead to coastal and urban flooding. The study area is the Elwood Catchment, which is a highly urbanized catchment located in the city of Port Phillip, Melbourne, Australia. The first part of the investigation dealt with the marginal extreme value distributions. Two approaches to extract extreme value series were applied (Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series), and different probability distribution functions were fit to the observed sample. Results obtained by using the Generalized Pareto distribution demonstrate the ability of the Pareto family to model the extreme events. Advancing into multivariate extreme value analysis, first an investigation regarding the asymptotic properties of extremal dependence was carried out. As a weak positive asymptotic dependence between the bivariate extreme pairs was found, the Conditional method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004) was chosen. This approach is suitable to model bivariate extreme values, which are relatively unlikely to occur together. The results show that the probability of an extreme sea surge occurring during a one-hour intensity extreme precipitation event (or vice versa) can be twice as great as what would occur when assuming independent events. Therefore, presuming independence between these two variables would result in severe underestimation of the flooding risk in the study area.

To what extent can green infrastructure mitigate downstream flooding in a peri-urban catchment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, J. E.; Burns, M.; Sanders, B. F.; Flethcher, T.

2016-12-01

In this research, we couple an urban hydrologic model (MUSIC, eWater, AUS) with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo, UC Irvine, USA) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with stormwater control measures (SCMs) can propagate flood management benefits downstream. Our study site is the peri-urban Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment in eastern Melbourne, AUS, with an area of 4.5 km2 and connected impervious area of 9%. Urban development is mainly limited to the upper 2 km2of the catchment. Since 2009 the LSC catchment has been the subject of a large-scale experiment aiming to restore morenatural flow by implementing over 300 SCMs, such as rain tanks and infiltration trenches, resulting in runoff from 50% of connected impervious areas now being intercepted by some form of SCM. For our study we calibrated the hydrologic and hydraulic models based on current catchment conditions, then we developed models representing alternative SCM scenarios including a complete lack of SCMs versus a full implementation of SCMs. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 63-1% and durations between 10 min to 24 hr. Metrics of SCM efficacy in changing flood regime include flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Results indicate that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 hours, current SCM conditions reduce downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of SCMs would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of SCMs could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing damage potential to structures in the flow path and increasing the ability for vehicles to evacuate flooded streets. We also found that for storm durations longer than 3 hours, the SCMs capacity to retain rainfall runoff volumes is much decreased, with a full implementation of SCMs only reducing flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%. Therefore additional measures are required for downstream flood hazard mitigation from long duration events.

Minor floods of 1938 in the North Atlantic States

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1947-01-01

Five noteworthy floods occurred during 1938 in the North Atlantic States. The first flood was in January, the others were in June, July, August, and September. The floods of January, June, and August were relatively local events in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York, respectively. The floods of July and September were widespread, reaching from New Jersey and New York to New Hampshire in generally coincident locations. The flood of September, the most severe, is described in appropriate detail in Water-Supply Paper 867; the others in this volume are in separate sections arranged chronologically. Extraordinary floods in Connecticut during January 1938 resulted from a critical combination of warm rainfall and virtual overnight melting of the accumulated snowfall of winter. Seven small streams in central and western Connecticut rose to levels on January 25 higher than those reached during the great floods of March 1936. Crest discharge of these streams approximated 100 second-feet per square mile. Ice cover was loosened and sent downstream in recurrent jams. In general, the larger rivers did not attain extraordinary stages. The Connecticut River at Hartford peaked at a stage 3.6 feet above ordinary flood level. Direct damage by the flood was relatively small. Snow cover on January 20, at the beginning of the rains, varied from 0.25 inch along the coast to 2.75 inches water equivalent in the northern part of the State. Precipitation between January 24 and 26 exceeded 2.75 inches in only three small areas. Total supply as water in snow and precipitation did not exceed 4.8 inches over any tributary area. Maximum measured flood run-off was 2.7 inches. The flood of June 1938 in New Jersey was the immediate result of a 30-hour rainstorm on June 26-27 that centered along a line extending from Odessa, Del., to Milton, N. J. Storm rainfall exceeded 5 inches over a total area of 2,900 square miles. River stages in the central parts of the storm area rose to levels that approached and on a few rivers exceeded previous maxima of record. Damage was extensive throughout the storm area, especially in Burlington, N. J., where Sylvan Lake Dam failed. The highest rate of flow per unit of area measured was 88 second-feet per square mile. However, all peak discharges were exceeded during the later floods of 1938 or by the flood of September 1, 1940, which produced discharges over 1,000 second-feet per square mile in southern New Jersey. The maximum volume of direct runoff during the flood, expressed in mean depth in inches on the drainage area, was 2.1 inches. From July 17 to 25, 1938, there was an irregular series of rainstorms over the eastern seaboard that brought more than 10 inches of rain over an area of 2,000 square miles and more than 6 inches over 23,000 square miles. Nearly 14 inches of rain fell at Long Branch, N. J. Extraordinary floods occurred mainly in the smaller tributary streams. Damage to highways, homes, factories, and crops, particularly the tobacco co-op in Connecticut, was extensive. Crest discharges at 12 gaging stations exceeded those previously observed. Maximum rates of discharge varied from 601 second-feet per square mile for an area of 2.91 square miles in New Jersey to 35 second-feet per square mile for an area of 711 square miles in Connecticut. Antecedent soil moisture prior to the storm was probably normal or a little above. The maximum volume of direct runoff was 4.75 inches in Massachusetts, 5.6 inches in eastern Connecticut, 6.75 inches in the Catskill Mountain region of New York, and 4.95 inches in the Raritan River Basin of New Jersey. Infiltration indices from 0.09 .to 0.21 inch per hour were computed, such rates being within the range defined for basins in the same areas during the floods of September 1938. The flood of August 6-11, 1938, in the Catskill Mountain region of New York resulted from heavy rains with a maximum of 8 inches at two centers. Rainfall exceeded 3 inches over more than 3,000

Clinical Malaria Transmission Trends and Its Association with Climatic Variables in Tubu Village, Botswana: A Retrospective Analysis.

PubMed

Chirebvu, Elijah; Chimbari, Moses John; Ngwenya, Barbara Ntombi; Sartorius, Benn

2016-01-01

Good knowledge on the interactions between climatic variables and malaria can be very useful for predicting outbreaks and preparedness interventions. We investigated clinical malaria transmission patterns and its temporal relationship with climatic variables in Tubu village, Botswana. A 5-year retrospective time series data analysis was conducted to determine the transmission patterns of clinical malaria cases at Tubu Health Post and its relationship with rainfall, flood discharge, flood extent, mean minimum, maximum and average temperatures. Data was obtained from clinical records and respective institutions for the period July 2005 to June 2010, presented graphically and analysed using the Univariate ANOVA and Pearson cross-correlation coefficient tests. Peak malaria season occurred between October and May with the highest cumulative incidence of clinical malaria cases being recorded in February. Most of the cases were individuals aged >5 years. Associations between the incidence of clinical malaria cases and several factors were strong at lag periods of 1 month; rainfall (r = 0.417), mean minimum temperature (r = 0.537), mean average temperature (r = 0.493); and at lag period of 6 months for flood extent (r = 0.467) and zero month for flood discharge (r = 0.497). The effect of mean maximum temperature was strongest at 2-month lag period (r = 0.328). Although malaria transmission patterns varied from year to year the trends were similar to those observed in sub-Saharan Africa. Age group >5 years experienced the greatest burden of clinical malaria probably due to the effects of the national malaria elimination programme. Rainfall, flood discharge and extent, mean minimum and mean average temperatures showed some correlation with the incidence of clinical malaria cases.

The English National Cohort Study of Flooding and Health: the change in the prevalence of psychological morbidity at year two.

PubMed

Jermacane, Daiga; Waite, Thomas David; Beck, Charles R; Bone, Angie; Amlôt, Richard; Reacher, Mark; Kovats, Sari; Armstrong, Ben; Leonardi, Giovanni; James Rubin, G; Oliver, Isabel

2018-03-07

The longer term impact of flooding on health is poorly understood. In 2015, following widespread flooding in the UK during winter 2013/14, Public Health England launched the English National Study of Flooding and Health. The study identified a higher prevalence of probable psychological morbidity one year after exposure to flooding. We now report findings after two years. In year two (2016), a self-assessment questionnaire including flooding-related exposures and validated instruments to screen for probable anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was sent to all participants who consented to further follow-up. Participants exposure status was categorised according to responses in year one; we assessed for exposure to new episodes of flooding and continuing flood-related problems in respondents homes. We calculated the prevalence and odds ratio for each outcome by exposure group relative to unaffected participants, adjusting for confounders. We used the McNemar test to assess change in outcomes between year one and year two. In year two, 1064 (70%) people responded. The prevalence of probable psychological morbidity remained elevated amongst flooded participants [n = 339] (depression 10.6%, anxiety 13.6%, PTSD 24.5%) and disrupted participants [n = 512] (depression 4.1%, anxiety 6.4%, PTSD 8.9%), although these rates were reduced compared to year one. A greater reduction in anxiety 7.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.6-9.9) was seen than depression 3.8% (95% CI 1.5-6.1) and PTSD: 6.6% (95% CI 3.9-9.2). Exposure to flooding was associated with a higher odds of anxiety (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.2 95%, 95% CI 1.7-16.3) and depression (aOR 8.7, 95% CI 1.9-39.8) but not PTSD. Exposure to disruption caused by flooding was not significantly associated with probable psychological morbidity. Persistent damage in the home as a consequence of the original flooding event was reported by 119 participants (14%). The odds of probable psychological morbidity amongst flooded participants who reported persistent damage, compared with those who were unaffected, were significantly higher than the same comparison amongst flooded participants who did not report persistent damage. This study shows a continuance of probable psychological morbidity at least two years following exposure to flooding. Commissioners and providers of health and social care services should be aware that the increased need in populations may be prolonged. Efforts to resolve persistent damage to homes may reduce the risk of probable psychological morbidity.

Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a stochastic generator of synthetic data was developed. Synthetic basin characteristics were randomised, keeping the statistical properties of observed physical and climatic variables in the homogeneous region. The synthetic flood quantiles were stochastically generated taking the regression equation as basis. The learnt Bayesian network was validated by the reliability diagram, the Brier Score and the ROC diagram, which are common measures used in the validation of probabilistic forecasts. Summarising, the flood quantile estimations through Bayesian networks supply information about the prediction uncertainty as a probability distribution function of discharges is given as result. Therefore, the Bayesian network model has application as a decision support for water resources and planning management.

An Exploration of the Importance of Flood Heterogeneity for Regionalization in Arizona using the Expected Moments Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamora-Reyes, D.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Paretti, N. V.

2012-12-01

Bulletin 17B (B17B) has prevailed for 30 years as the standard manual for determining flood frequency in the United States. Recently proposed updates to B17B include revising the issue of flood heterogeneity, and improving flood estimates by using the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) which can better address low outliers and accommodate information on historical peaks. Incorporating information on mixed populations, such as flood-causing mechanisms, into flood estimates for regions that have noticeable flood heterogeneity can be statistically challenging when systematic flood records are short. The problem magnifies when the population sample size is reduced by decomposing the record, especially if multiple flood mechanisms are involved. In B17B, the guidelines for dealing with mixed populations focus primarily on how to rule out any need to perform a mixed-population analysis. However, in some regions mixed flood populations are critically important determinants of regional flood frequency variations and should be explored from this perspective. Arizona is an area with a heterogeneous mixture of flood processes due to: warm season convective thunderstorms, cool season synoptic-scale storms, and tropical cyclone-enhanced convective activity occurring in the late summer or early fall. USGS station data throughout Arizona was compiled into a database and each flood peak (annual and partial duration series) was classified according to its meteorological cause. Using these data, we have explored the role of flood heterogeneity in Arizona flood estimates through composite flood frequency analysis based on mixed flood populations using EMA. First, for selected stations, the three flood-causing populations were separated out from the systematic annual flood series record and analyzed individually. Second, to create composite probability curves, the individual curves for each of the three populations were generated and combined using Crippen's (1978) composite probability equations for sites that have two or more independent flood populations. Finally, the individual probability curves generated for each of the three flood-causing populations were compared with both the site's composite probability curve and the standard B17B curve to explore the influence of heterogeneity using the 100-year and 200-year flood estimates as a basis of comparison. Results showed that sites located in southern Arizona and along the abrupt elevation transition zone of the Mogollon Rim exhibit a better fit to the systematic data using their composite probability curves than the curves derived from standard B17B analysis. Synoptic storm floods and tropical cyclone-enhanced floods had the greatest influence on 100-year and 200-year flood estimates. This was especially true in southern Arizona, even though summer convective floods are much more frequent and therefore dominate the composite curve. Using the EMA approach also influenced our results because all possible low outliers were censored by the built-in Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test, providing a better fit to the systematic data in the upper probabilities. In conclusion, flood heterogeneity can play an important role in regional flood frequency variations in Arizona and that understanding its influence is important when making projections about future flood variations.

National Dam Safety Program. Watchung Lake Dam (NJ00767), Raritan River Basin, Stony Brook, Somerset County, New Jersey Phase I Inspection Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-01

Safety Program Erosion Embankmients Watchung Lake Dam, N.J. Visual InspectionSeae IStructural Analysis Spillways 12M~ A0ST Acr (cathiue samvwgip @ta N...determined by a qualified professional consultant engaged by the owner using more sophisticated methods , procedures and studies within six months...be overtopped. (The SDF, in this instance, is one half of the Probable Maximum Flood). The decision to consider the spillway " inaae - quate" instead of

Review of the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) Snowmelt Analysis for Success Dam

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-01

118.53994 36.11754 7200 1981–2014 CA Dept. of Water Resources EGL Eagle Creek Air Temp. Hourly −118.641 35.983 6700 1995–2009 USACE HSS Hossack Air...is in the form of “tiles” with each tile ap- proximately 1200 × 1200 km in area and containing approximately 2400 × 2400 pixels. Each pixel is...District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of

Flood frequency analysis and generation of flood hazard indicator maps in a semi-arid environment, case of Ourika watershed (western High Atlas, Morocco)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Alaoui El Fels, Abdelhafid; Alaa, Noureddine; Bachnou, Ali; Rachidi, Said

2018-05-01

The development of the statistical models and flood risk modeling approaches have seen remarkable improvements in their productivities. Their application in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in developing countries, can be extremely useful for better assessment and planning of flood risk in order to reduce the catastrophic impacts of this phenomenon. This study focuses on the Setti Fadma region (Ourika basin, Morocco) which is potentially threatened by floods and is subject to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. The study is based on two main axes: (i) the extreme flow frequency analysis, using 12 probability laws adjusted by Maximum Likelihood method and (ii) the generation of the flood risk indicator maps are based on the solution proposed by the Nays2DFlood solver of the Hydrodynamic model of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. The study is used as a spatial high-resolution digital model (Lidar) in order to get the nearest hydrological simulation of the reality. The results showed that the GEV is the most appropriate law of the extreme flows estimation for different return periods. Taking into consideration the mapping of 100-year flood area, the study revealed that the fluvial overflows extent towards the banks of Ourika and consequently, affects some living areas, cultivated fields and the roads that connects the valley to the city of Marrakech. The aim of this study is to propose new technics of the flood risk management allowing a better planning of the flooded areas.

Evaluation methodology for flood damage reduction by preliminary water release from hydroelectric dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ando, T.; Kawasaki, A.; Koike, T.

2017-12-01

IPCC AR5 (2014) reported that rainfall in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has been increasing since 1901, and it is claimed that warmer climate will increase the risk of floods. In contrast, world water demand is forecasted to exceed a sustainable supply by 40 percent by 2030. In order to avoid this expectable water shortage, securing new water resources has become an utmost challenge. However, flood risk prevention and the secure of water resources are contradictory. To solve this problem, we can use existing hydroelectric dams not only as energy resources but also for flood control. However, in case of Japan, hydroelectric dams take no responsibility for it, and benefits have not been discussed accrued by controlling flood by hydroelectric dams, namely by using preliminary water release from them. Therefore, our paper proposes methodology for assessing those benefits. This methodology has three stages as shown in Fig. 1. First, RRI model is used to model flood events, taking account of the probability of rainfall. Second, flood damage is calculated using assets in inundation areas multiplied by the inundation depths generated by that RRI model. Third, the losses stemming from preliminary water release are calculated, and adding them to flood damage, overall losses are calculated. We can evaluate the benefits by changing the volume of preliminary release. As a result, shown in Fig. 2, the use of hydroelectric dams to control flooding creates 20 billion Yen benefits, in the probability of three-day-ahead rainfall prediction of the assumed maximum rainfall in Oi River, in the Shizuoka Pref. of Japan. As the third priority in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, `investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience - public and private investment in disaster risk prevention and reduction through structural and non-structural measures' was adopted. The accuracy of rainfall prediction is the key factor in maximizing the benefits. Therefore, if the accrued 20 billion Yen benefits by adopting this evaluation methodology are invested in improving rainfall prediction, the accuracy of the forecasts will increase and so will the benefits. This positive feedback loop will benefit society. The results of this study may stimulate further discussion on the role of hydroelectric dams in flood control.

User's Manual for Program PeakFQ, Annual Flood-Frequency Analysis Using Bulletin 17B Guidelines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Kathleen M.; Kirby, William H.; Hummel, Paul R.

2006-01-01

Estimates of flood flows having given recurrence intervals or probabilities of exceedance are needed for design of hydraulic structures and floodplain management. Program PeakFQ provides estimates of instantaneous annual-maximum peak flows having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (annual-exceedance probabilities of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002, respectively). As implemented in program PeakFQ, the Pearson Type III frequency distribution is fit to the logarithms of instantaneous annual peak flows following Bulletin 17B guidelines of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. The parameters of the Pearson Type III frequency curve are estimated by the logarithmic sample moments (mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of skewness), with adjustments for low outliers, high outliers, historic peaks, and generalized skew. This documentation provides an overview of the computational procedures in program PeakFQ, provides a description of the program menus, and provides an example of the output from the program.

Flood hydrology and dam-breach hydraulic analyses of four reservoirs in the Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoogestraat, Galen K.

2011-01-01

Extensive information about the construction of dams or potential downstream hazards in the event of a dam breach is not available for many small reservoirs within the Black Hills National Forest. In 2009, the U.S. Forest Service identified the need for reconnaissance-level dam-breach assessments for four of these reservoirs within the Black Hills National Forest (Iron Creek, Horsethief, Lakota, and Mitchell Lakes) with the potential to flood downstream structures. Flood hydrology and dam-breach hydraulic analyses for the four selected reservoirs were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Forest service to estimate the areal extent of downstream inundation. Three high-flow breach scenarios were considered for cases when the dam is in place (overtopped) and when a dam break (failure) occurs: the 100-year recurrence 24-hour precipitation, 500-year recurrence peak flow, and the probable maximum precipitation. Inundation maps were developed that show the estimated extent of downstream floodwaters from simulated scenarios. Simulation results were used to determine the hazard classification of a dam break (high, significant, or low), based primarily on the potential for loss of life or property damage resulting from downstream inundation because of the flood surge.The inflow design floods resulting from the two simulated storm events (100-year 24-hour and probable maximum precipitation) were determined using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). The inflow design flood for the 500-year recurrence peak flow was determined by using regional regression equations developed for streamflow-gaging stations with similar watershed characteristics. The step-backwater hydraulic analysis model, Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), was used to determine water-surface profiles of in-place and dam-break scenarios for the three inflow design floods that were simulated. Inundation maps for in-place and dam-break scenarios were developed for the area downstream from the dam to the mouth of each stream.Dam-break scenarios for three of the four reservoirs assessed in this study were rated as low hazards owing to absence of permanent structures downstream from the dams. Iron Creek Lake's downstream channel to its mouth does not include any permanent structures within the inundation flood plains. For the two reservoirs with the largest watershed areas, Lakota and Mitchell Lake, the additional floodwater surge resulting from a dam break would be minor relative to the magnitude of the large flood streamflow into the reservoirs, based on the similar areal extent of inundation for the in-place and dam-break scenarios as indicated by the developed maps. A dam-break scenario at Horsethief Lake is rated as a significant hazard because of potential lives-in-jeopardy in downstream dwellings and appreciable economic loss.

Using risk-based analysis and geographic information systems to assess flooding problems in an urban watershed in Rhode Island.

PubMed

Hardmeyer, Kent; Spencer, Michael A

2007-04-01

This article provides an overview of the use of risk-based analysis (RBA) in flood damage assessment, and it illustrates the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in identifying flood-prone areas, which can aid in flood-mitigation planning assistance. We use RBA to calculate expected annual flood damages in an urban watershed in the state of Rhode Island, USA. The method accounts for the uncertainty in the three primary relationships used in computing flood damage: (1) the probability that a given flood will produce a given amount of floodwater, (2) the probability that a given amount of floodwater will reach a certain stage or height, and (3) the probability that a certain stage of floodwater will produce a given amount of damage. A greater than 50% increase in expected annual flood damage is estimated for the future if previous development patterns continue and flood-mitigation measures are not taken. GIS is then used to create a map that shows where and how often floods might occur in the future, which can help (1) identify priority areas for flood-mitigation planning assistance and (2) disseminate information to public officials and other decision-makers.

Streamflow and Erosion Response to Prolonged Intense Rainfall of November 1-2, 2000, Island of Hawaii, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Richard A.; Hill, Barry R.

2002-01-01

A combination of several meteorologic and topographic factors produced extreme rainfall over the eastern part of the island of Hawaii on November 1-2, 2000. Storm rainfall was concentrated in two distinct areas, the Waiakea and Kapapala areas, where maximum rainfall totals of 32.47 and 38.97 inches were recorded. Resultant flooding caused damages in excess of 70 million dollars, among the highest totals associated with flooding in the State's history. Storm rainfall had recurrence intervals that ranged from 10 years or less for maximum 1-hour totals to 100 years or more for maximum 24-hour totals As part of this study, peak flow and/or erosion data were collected at 41 sites. Analyses of these data indicated that peak discharges of record occurred at 6 of 12 sites where historic data were available. Peak flows with estimated recurrence intervals from 50 to over 100 years were recorded at 4 of 11 sites. Peak flows were poorly correlated with total storm rainfall. Critical rainfall durations associated with peak flows ranged from 1 to 12 hours and were about 3 hours at most sites. Rainfall-runoff computations and field observations indicated that infiltration-excess overland flow alone was not sufficient to have caused the observed flood peaks and therefore saturation-excess overland flow and subsurface flow probably contributed to peak flows at most sites Most hillslope erosion associated with the storm took place along or near the Kaoiki Pali in the Kapapala area. Hillslope erosion was predominately caused by overland flow.

Mapping Daily and Maximum Flood Extents at 90-m Resolution During Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Using Passive Microwave Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galantowicz, J. F.; Picton, J.; Root, B.

2017-12-01

Passive microwave remote sensing can provided a distinct perspective on flood events by virtue of wide sensor fields of view, frequent observations from multiple satellites, and sensitivity through clouds and vegetation. During Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, we used AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, JAXA) data to map flood extents starting from the first post-storm rain-free sensor passes. Our standard flood mapping algorithm (FloodScan) derives flooded fraction from 22-km microwave data (AMSR2 or NASA's GMI) in near real time and downscales it to 90-m resolution using a database built from topography, hydrology, and Global Surface Water Explorer data and normalized to microwave data footprint shapes. During Harvey and Irma we tested experimental versions of the algorithm designed to map the maximum post-storm flood extent rapidly and made a variety of map products available immediately for use in storm monitoring and response. The maps have several unique features including spanning the entire storm-affected area and providing multiple post-storm updates as flood water shifted and receded. From the daily maps we derived secondary products such as flood duration, maximum flood extent (Figure 1), and flood depth. In this presentation, we describe flood extent evolution, maximum extent, and local details as detected by the FloodScan algorithm in the wake of Harvey and Irma. We compare FloodScan results to other available flood mapping resources, note observed shortcomings, and describe improvements made in response. We also discuss how best-estimate maps could be updated in near real time by merging FloodScan products and data from other remote sensing systems and hydrological models.

Flood Inundation Mapping and Emergency Operations during Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, N. Z.; Cotter, J.; Gao, S.; Bedient, P. B.; Yung, A.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey struck the Gulf Coast as Category 4 on August 25, 2017 with devastating and life-threatening floods in Texas. Harris County received up to 49 inches of rainfall over a 5-day period and experienced flooding level and impacts beyond any previous storm in Houston's history. The depth-duration-frequency analysis reveals that the areal average rainfall for Brays Bayou surpasses the 500-year rainfall in both 24 and 48 hours. To cope with this unprecedented event, the researchers at the University of Texas at Arlington and Rice University worked closely with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the National Weather Service (NWS), the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM), Walter P. Moore and Associates, Inc. and Halff Associates, to conduct a series of meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to delineate flood inundation maps. Up to eight major watersheds in Harris County were delineated based the available QPE data from WGRFC. The inundation map over Brays Bayou with their impacts from Hurricane Harvey was delineated in comparison with those of 100-, 500-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) design storms. This presentation will provide insights for both engineers and planners to re-evaluate the existing flood infrastructure and policy, which will help build Houston stronger for future extreme storms. The collaborative effort among the federal, academic, and private entities clearly demonstrates an effective approach for flood inundation mapping initiatives for the nation.

Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding.

PubMed

Moftakhari, Hamed R; Salvadori, Gianfausto; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F; Matthew, Richard A

2017-09-12

Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from multiple drivers (e.g., extreme coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow). Here, we propose a bivariate flood hazard assessment approach that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and we show that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects. Using copulas and bivariate dependence analysis, we also quantify the increases in failure probabilities for 2030 and 2050 caused by SLR under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, the increase in failure probability is shown to be strongly affected by compounding effects. The proposed failure probability method offers an innovative tool for assessing compounding flood hazards in a warming climate.

A Hydrological Modeling Framework for Flood Risk Assessment for Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashouri, H.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Chowdhary, H.; Sen Gupta, A.

2016-12-01

Flooding has been the most frequent natural disaster that claims lives and imposes significant economic losses to human societies worldwide. Japan, with an annual rainfall of up to approximately 4000 mm is extremely vulnerable to flooding. The focus of this research is to develop a macroscale hydrologic model for simulating flooding toward an improved understanding and assessment of flood risk across Japan. The framework employs a conceptual hydrological model, known as the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), as well as the Muskingum-Cunge flood routing procedure for simulating streamflow. In addition, a Temperature-Index model is incorporated to account for snowmelt and its contribution to streamflow. For an efficient calibration of the model, in terms of computational timing and convergence of the parameters, a set of A Priori parameters is obtained based on the relationships between the model parameters and the physical properties of watersheds. In this regard, we have implemented a particle tracking algorithm and a statistical model which use high resolution Digital Terrain Models to estimate different time related parameters of the model such as time to peak of the unit hydrograph. In addition, global soil moisture and depth data are used to generate A Priori estimation of maximum soil moisture capacity, an important parameter of the PDM model. Once the model is calibrated, its performance is examined during the Typhoon Nabi which struck Japan in September 2005 and caused severe flooding throughout the country. The model is also validated for the extreme precipitation event in 2012 which affected Kyushu. In both cases, quantitative measures show that simulated streamflow depicts good agreement with gauge-based observations. The model is employed to simulate thousands of possible flood events for the entire Japan which makes a basis for a comprehensive flood risk assessment and loss estimation for the flood insurance industry.

Application of at-site peak-streamflow frequency analyses for very low annual exceedance probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Kiang, Julie E.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2017-07-17

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, has investigated statistical methods for probabilistic flood hazard assessment to provide guidance on very low annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimation of peak-streamflow frequency and the quantification of corresponding uncertainties using streamgage-specific data. The term “very low AEP” implies exceptionally rare events defined as those having AEPs less than about 0.001 (or 1 × 10–3 in scientific notation or for brevity 10–3). Such low AEPs are of great interest to those involved with peak-streamflow frequency analyses for critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants. Flood frequency analyses at streamgages are most commonly based on annual instantaneous peak streamflow data and a probability distribution fit to these data. The fitted distribution provides a means to extrapolate to very low AEPs. Within the United States, the Pearson type III probability distribution, when fit to the base-10 logarithms of streamflow, is widely used, but other distribution choices exist. The USGS-PeakFQ software, implementing the Pearson type III within the Federal agency guidelines of Bulletin 17B (method of moments) and updates to the expected moments algorithm (EMA), was specially adapted for an “Extended Output” user option to provide estimates at selected AEPs from 10–3 to 10–6. Parameter estimation methods, in addition to product moments and EMA, include L-moments, maximum likelihood, and maximum product of spacings (maximum spacing estimation). This study comprehensively investigates multiple distributions and parameter estimation methods for two USGS streamgages (01400500 Raritan River at Manville, New Jersey, and 01638500 Potomac River at Point of Rocks, Maryland). The results of this study specifically involve the four methods for parameter estimation and up to nine probability distributions, including the generalized extreme value, generalized log-normal, generalized Pareto, and Weibull. Uncertainties in streamflow estimates for corresponding AEP are depicted and quantified as two primary forms: quantile (aleatoric [random sampling] uncertainty) and distribution-choice (epistemic [model] uncertainty). Sampling uncertainties of a given distribution are relatively straightforward to compute from analytical or Monte Carlo-based approaches. Distribution-choice uncertainty stems from choices of potentially applicable probability distributions for which divergence among the choices increases as AEP decreases. Conventional goodness-of-fit statistics, such as Cramér-von Mises, and L-moment ratio diagrams are demonstrated in order to hone distribution choice. The results generally show that distribution choice uncertainty is larger than sampling uncertainty for very low AEP values.

Flood of June 11, 2010, in the Upper Little Missouri River watershed, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Wagner, Daniel M.

2011-01-01

Catastrophic flash flooding occurred in the early morning hours of June 11, 2010, in the upper Little Missouri River and tributary streams in southwest Arkansas. The flooding, which resulted in 20 fatalities and substantial property damage, was caused by as much as 4.7 inches of rain falling in the upper Little Missouri River watershed in 3 hours. The 4.7 inches of rain in 3 hours corresponds to estimated annual exceedance probability of approximately 2 percent for a 3-hour duration storm. The maximum total estimated rainfall in the upper Missouri River watershed was 5.3 inches in 6 hours. Peak streamflows and other hydraulic properties were determined at five ungaged locations and one gaged location in the upper Little Missouri River watershed.The peak streamflow for the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike, Arkansas was 40,100 cubic feet per second, estimated to have occurred between 4:00 AM and 4:30 AM the morning of June 11, 2010. The peak streamflow resulted in average water depths in the nearby floodplain (Area C of the Albert Pike Campground) of 7 feet flowing at velocities potentially as great as 11 feet per second. Peak streamflow 9.1 miles downstream on the Little Missouri at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage near Langley, Arkansas was 70,800 cubic feet per second, which corresponds to an estimated annual exceedance probability of less than 1 percent.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, H.; Trepat, O. M.; Hung, N. N.; Chinh, D. T.; Merz, B.; Dung, N. V.

2015-08-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and ways for their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Evaluation of design flood estimates with respect to sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobierska, Florian; Engeland, Kolbjorn

2016-04-01

Estimation of design floods forms the basis for hazard management related to flood risk and is a legal obligation when building infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads close to water bodies. Flood inundation maps used for land use planning are also produced based on design flood estimates. In Norway, the current guidelines for design flood estimates give recommendations on which data, probability distribution, and method to use dependent on length of the local record. If less than 30 years of local data is available, an index flood approach is recommended where the local observations are used for estimating the index flood and regional data are used for estimating the growth curve. For 30-50 years of data, a 2 parameter distribution is recommended, and for more than 50 years of data, a 3 parameter distribution should be used. Many countries have national guidelines for flood frequency estimation, and recommended distributions include the log Pearson II, generalized logistic and generalized extreme value distributions. For estimating distribution parameters, ordinary and linear moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are used. The aim of this study is to r-evaluate the guidelines for local flood frequency estimation. In particular, we wanted to answer the following questions: (i) Which distribution gives the best fit to the data? (ii) Which estimation method provides the best fit to the data? (iii) Does the answer to (i) and (ii) depend on local data availability? To answer these questions we set up a test bench for local flood frequency analysis using data based cross-validation methods. The criteria were based on indices describing stability and reliability of design flood estimates. Stability is used as a criterion since design flood estimates should not excessively depend on the data sample. The reliability indices describe to which degree design flood predictions can be trusted.

Framework for probabilistic flood risk assessment in an Alpine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneeberger, Klaus; Huttenlau, Matthias; Steinberger, Thomas; Achleitner, Stefan; Stötter, Johann

2014-05-01

Flooding is among the natural hazards that regularly cause significant losses to property and human lives. The assessment of flood risk delivers crucial information for all participants involved in flood risk management and especially for local authorities and insurance companies in order to estimate the possible flood losses. Therefore a framework for assessing flood risk has been developed and is introduced with the presented contribution. Flood risk is thereby defined as combination of the probability of flood events and of potential flood damages. The probability of occurrence is described through the spatial and temporal characterisation of flood. The potential flood damages are determined in the course of vulnerability assessment, whereas, the exposure and the vulnerability of the elements at risks are considered. Direct costs caused by flooding with the focus on residential building are analysed. The innovative part of this contribution lies on the development of a framework which takes the probability of flood events and their spatio-temporal characteristic into account. Usually the probability of flooding will be determined by means of recurrence intervals for an entire catchment without any spatial variation. This may lead to a misinterpretation of the flood risk. Within the presented framework the probabilistic flood risk assessment is based on analysis of a large number of spatial correlated flood events. Since the number of historic flood events is relatively small additional events have to be generated synthetically. This temporal extrapolation is realised by means of the method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004). It is used to generate a large number of possible spatial correlated flood events within a larger catchment. The approach is based on the modelling of multivariate extremes considering the spatial dependence structure of flood events. The input for this approach are time series derived from river gauging stations. In a next step the historic and synthetic flood events have to be spatially interpolated from point scale (i.e. river gauges) to the river network. Therefore, topological kriging (Top-kriging) proposed by Skøien et al. (2006) is applied. Top-kriging considers the nested structure of river networks and is therefore suitable to regionalise flood characteristics. Thus, the characteristics of a large number of possible flood events can be transferred to arbitrary locations (e.g. community level) at the river network within a study region. This framework has been used to generate a set of spatial correlated river flood events in the Austrian Federal Province of Vorarlberg. In addition, loss-probability-curves for each community has been calculated based on official inundation maps of public authorities, elements at risks and their vulnerability. One location along the river network within each community refers as interface between the set of flood events and the individual loss-probability relationships for the individual communities. Consequently, every flood event from the historic and synthetic generated dataset can be monetary evaluated. Thus, a time series comprising a large number of flood events and their corresponding monetary losses serves as basis for a probabilistic flood risk assessment. This includes expected annual losses and estimates of extreme event losses, which occur over the course of a certain time period. The gained results are essential decision-support for primary insurers, reinsurance companies and public authorities in order to setup a scale adequate risk management.

Heavy rain prediction using deterministic and probabilistic models - the flash flood cases of 11-13 October 2005 in Catalonia (NE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrera, A.; Altava-Ortiz, V.; Llasat, M. C.; Barnolas, M.

2007-09-01

Between the 11 and 13 October 2005 several flash floods were produced along the coast of Catalonia (NE Spain) due to a significant heavy rainfall event. Maximum rainfall achieved values up to 250 mm in 24 h. The total amount recorded during the event in some places was close to 350 mm. Barcelona city was also in the affected area where high rainfall intensities were registered, but just a few small floods occurred, thanks to the efficient urban drainage system of the city. Two forecasting methods have been applied in order to evaluate their capability of prediction regarding extreme events: the deterministic MM5 model and a probabilistic model based on the analogous method. The MM5 simulation allows analysing accurately the main meteorological features with a high spatial resolution (2 km), like the formation of some convergence lines over the region that partially explains the maximum precipitation location during the event. On the other hand, the analogous technique shows a good agreement among highest probability values and real affected areas, although a larger pluviometric rainfall database would be needed to improve the results. The comparison between the observed precipitation and from both QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) methods shows that the analogous technique tends to underestimate the rainfall values and the MM5 simulation tends to overestimate them.

Secondary stressors are associated with probable psychological morbidity after flooding: a cross-sectional analysis.

PubMed

Tempest, Elizabeth L; Carter, Ben; Beck, Charles R; Rubin, G James

2017-12-01

The impact of flooding on mental health is exacerbated due to secondary stressors, although the mechanism of action is not understood. We investigated the role of secondary stressors on psychological outcomes through analysis of data collected one-year after flooding, and effect modification by sex. We analysed data from the English National Study on Flooding and Health collected from households flooded, disrupted and unexposed to flooding during 2013-14. Psychological outcomes were probable depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Parsimonious multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to determine the effect of secondary stressors on the psychological outcomes. Sex was tested as an effect modifier using subgroup analyses. A total of 2006 people participated (55.5% women, mean age 60 years old). Participants reporting concerns about their personal health and that of their family (concerns about health) had greater odds of probable depression (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.77, 95% CI 1.17-2.65) and PTSD (aOR 2.58, 95% CI 1.82-3.66). Loss of items of sentimental value was associated with probable anxiety (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.26-2.62). For women, the strongest associations were between concerns about health and probable PTSD (aOR 2.86, 95% CI 1.79-4.57). For men, the strongest associations were between 'relationship problems' and probable depression (aOR 3.25, 95% CI 1.54-6.85). Concerns about health, problems with relationships and loss of sentimental items were consistently associated with poor psychological outcomes. Interventions to reduce the occurrence of these secondary stressors are needed to mitigate the impact of flooding on probable psychological morbidity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

Secondary stressors are associated with probable psychological morbidity after flooding: a cross-sectional analysis

PubMed Central

Tempest, Elizabeth L.; Carter, Ben; Beck, Charles R.; Rubin, G. James

2017-01-01

Abstract Background The impact of flooding on mental health is exacerbated due to secondary stressors, although the mechanism of action is not understood. We investigated the role of secondary stressors on psychological outcomes through analysis of data collected one-year after flooding, and effect modification by sex. Methods We analysed data from the English National Study on Flooding and Health collected from households flooded, disrupted and unexposed to flooding during 2013–14. Psychological outcomes were probable depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Parsimonious multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to determine the effect of secondary stressors on the psychological outcomes. Sex was tested as an effect modifier using subgroup analyses. Results A total of 2006 people participated (55.5% women, mean age 60 years old). Participants reporting concerns about their personal health and that of their family (concerns about health) had greater odds of probable depression (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.77, 95% CI 1.17–2.65) and PTSD (aOR 2.58, 95% CI 1.82–3.66). Loss of items of sentimental value was associated with probable anxiety (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.26–2.62). For women, the strongest associations were between concerns about health and probable PTSD (aOR 2.86, 95% CI 1.79–4.57). For men, the strongest associations were between ‘relationship problems’ and probable depression (aOR 3.25, 95% CI 1.54–6.85). Conclusions Concerns about health, problems with relationships and loss of sentimental items were consistently associated with poor psychological outcomes. Interventions to reduce the occurrence of these secondary stressors are needed to mitigate the impact of flooding on probable psychological morbidity. PMID:29087460

Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

PubMed

Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

2012-11-01

Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan.

PubMed

Oskorouchi, Hamid Reza; Nie, Peng; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

2018-01-01

This study uses biomarker information from the 2013 National Nutrition Survey Afghanistan and satellite precipitation driven modeling results from the Global Flood Monitoring System to analyze how floods affect the probability of anemia in Afghan women of reproductive age (15-49). In addition to establishing a causal relation between the two by exploiting the quasi-random variation of floods in different districts and periods, the analysis demonstrates that floods have a significant positive effect on the probability of anemia through two possible transmission mechanisms. The first is a significant effect on inflammation, probably related to water borne diseases carried by unsafe drinking water, and the second is a significant negative effect on retinol concentrations. Because the effect of floods on anemia remains significant even after we control for anemia's most common causes, we argue that the condition may also be affected by elevated levels of psychological stress.

The effect of floods on anemia among reproductive age women in Afghanistan

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This study uses biomarker information from the 2013 National Nutrition Survey Afghanistan and satellite precipitation driven modeling results from the Global Flood Monitoring System to analyze how floods affect the probability of anemia in Afghan women of reproductive age (15–49). In addition to establishing a causal relation between the two by exploiting the quasi-random variation of floods in different districts and periods, the analysis demonstrates that floods have a significant positive effect on the probability of anemia through two possible transmission mechanisms. The first is a significant effect on inflammation, probably related to water borne diseases carried by unsafe drinking water, and the second is a significant negative effect on retinol concentrations. Because the effect of floods on anemia remains significant even after we control for anemia’s most common causes, we argue that the condition may also be affected by elevated levels of psychological stress. PMID:29425219

Improving Bedload Transport Predictions by Incorporating Hysteresis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowe Curran, J.; Gaeuman, D.

2015-12-01

The importance of unsteady flow on sediment transport rates has long been recognized. However, the majority of sediment transport models were developed under steady flow conditions that did not account for changing bed morphologies and sediment transport during flood events. More recent research has used laboratory data and field data to quantify the influence of hysteresis on bedload transport and adjust transport models. In this research, these new methods are combined to improve further the accuracy of bedload transport rate quantification and prediction. The first approach defined reference shear stresses for hydrograph rising and falling limbs, and used these values to predict total and fractional transport rates during a hydrograph. From this research, a parameter for improving transport predictions during unsteady flows was developed. The second approach applied a maximum likelihood procedure to fit a bedload rating curve to measurements from a number of different coarse bed rivers. Parameters defining the rating curve were optimized for values that maximized the conditional probability of producing the measured bedload transport rate. Bedload sample magnitude was fit to a gamma distribution, and the probability of collecting N particles in a sampler during a given time step was described with a Poisson probability density function. Both approaches improved estimates of total transport during large flow events when compared to existing methods and transport models. Recognizing and accounting for the changes in transport parameters over time frames on the order of a flood or flood sequence influences the choice of method for parameter calculation in sediment transport calculations. Those methods that more tightly link the changing flow rate and bed mobility have the potential to improve bedload transport rates.

Influence of flood risk characteristics on flood insurance demand: a comparison between Germany and the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seifert, I.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2013-07-01

The existence of sufficient demand for insurance coverage against infrequent losses is important for the adequate function of insurance markets for natural disaster risks. This study investigates how characteristics of flood risk influence household flood insurance demand based on household surveys undertaken in Germany and the Netherlands. Our analyses confirm the hypothesis that willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance against medium-probability medium-impact flood risk in Germany is higher than WTP for insurance against low-probability high-impact flood risk in the Netherlands. These differences in WTP can be related to differences in flood experience, individual risk perceptions, and the charity hazard. In both countries there is a need to stimulate flood insurance demand if a relevant role of private insurance in flood loss compensation is regarded as desirable, for example, by making flood insurance compulsory or by designing information campaigns.

Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

2016-11-01

Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Precipitation and Storm Tide in a Coastal City under Changing Environment

PubMed Central

Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

2014-01-01

Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt’s tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment. PMID:25310006

Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

PubMed

Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

2014-01-01

Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

Temporal variability in trace metal solubility in a paddy soil not reflected in uptake by rice (Oryza sativa L.).

PubMed

Pan, Yunyu; Koopmans, Gerwin F; Bonten, Luc T C; Song, Jing; Luo, Yongming; Temminghoff, Erwin J M; Comans, Rob N J

2016-12-01

Alternating flooding and drainage conditions have a strong influence on redox chemistry and the solubility of trace metals in paddy soils. However, current knowledge of how the effects of water management on trace metal solubility are linked to trace metal uptake by rice plants over time is still limited. Here, a field-contaminated paddy soil was subjected to two flooding and drainage cycles in a pot experiment with two rice plant cultivars, exhibiting either high or low Cd accumulation characteristics. Flooding led to a strong vertical gradient in the redox potential (Eh). The pH and Mn, Fe, and dissolved organic carbon concentrations increased with decreasing Eh and vice versa. During flooding, trace metal solubility decreased markedly, probably due to sulfide mineral precipitation. Despite its low solubility, the Cd content in rice grains exceeded the food quality standards for both cultivars. Trace metal contents in different rice plant tissues (roots, stem, and leaves) increased at a constant rate during the first flooding and drainage cycle but decreased after reaching a maximum during the second cycle. As such, the high temporal variability in trace metal solubility was not reflected in trace metal uptake by rice plants over time. This might be due to the presence of aerobic conditions and a consequent higher trace metal solubility near the root surface, even during flooding. Trace metal solubility in the rhizosphere should be considered when linking water management to trace metal uptake by rice over time.

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity I. A simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

The stationarity of annual flood peak records is the traditional assumption of flood frequency analysis. In some cases, however, as a result of land-use and/or climate change, this assumption is no longer valid. Therefore, new statistical models are needed to capture dynamically the change of probability density functions over time, in order to obtain reliable flood estimation. In this study, an innovative method for nonstationary flood frequency analysis was presented. Here, the new method is based on detrending the flood series and applying the L-moments along with the GEV distribution to the transformed ;stationary; series (hereafter, this is called the LM-NS). The LM-NS method was assessed through a comparative study with the maximum likelihood (ML) method for the nonstationary GEV model, as well as with the stationary (S) GEV model. The comparative study, based on Monte Carlo simulations, was carried out for three nonstationary GEV models: a linear dependence of the mean on time (GEV1), a quadratic dependence of the mean on time (GEV2), and linear dependence in both the mean and log standard deviation on time (GEV11). The simulation results indicated that the LM-NS method performs better than the ML method for most of the cases studied, whereas the stationary method provides the least accurate results. An additional advantage of the LM-NS method is to avoid the numerical problems (e.g., convergence problems) that may occur with the ML method when estimating parameters for small data samples.

Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

2016-04-01

Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra-national scale flood damage assessments, and guide assessment in countries where no damage model is currently available.

Impact of fresh and saline water flooding on leaf gas exchange in two Italian provenances of Tamarix africana Poiret.

PubMed

Abou Jaoudé, R; de Dato, G; Palmegiani, M; De Angelis, P

2013-01-01

In Mediterranean coastal areas, changes in precipitation patterns and seawater levels are leading to increased frequency of flooding and to salinization of estuaries and freshwater systems. Tamarix spp. are often the only woody species growing in such environments. These species are known for their tolerance to moderate salinity; however, contrasting information exists regarding their tolerance to flooding, and the combination of the two stresses has never been studied in Tamarix spp. Here, we analyse the photosynthetic responses of T. africana Poiret to temporary flooding (45 days) with fresh or saline water (200 mm) in two Italian provenances (Simeto and Baratz). The measurements were conducted before and after the onset of flooding, to test the possible cumulative effects of the treatments and effects on twig aging, and to analyse the responses of twigs formed during the experimental period. Full tolerance was evident in T. africana with respect to flooding with fresh water, which did not affect photosynthetic performances in either provenance. Saline flooding was differently tolerated by the two provenances. Moreover, salinity tolerance differently affected the two twig generations. In particular, a reduction in net assimilation rate (-48.8%) was only observed in Baratz twigs formed during the experimental period, compared to pre-existing twigs. This reduction was a consequence of non-stomatal limitations (maximum carboxylation rate and electron transport), probably as a result of higher Na transport to the twigs, coupled with reduced Na storage in the roots. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Variation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in Brazos River Basin, TX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.

2017-12-01

The Brazos River basin, the second-largest river basin by area in Texas, generates the highest amount of flow volume of any river in a given year in Texas. With its headwaters located at the confluence of Double Mountain and Salt forks in Stonewall County, the third-longest flowline of the Brazos River traverses within narrow valleys in the area of rolling topography of west Texas, and flows through rugged terrains in mainly featureless plains of central Texas, before its confluence with Gulf of Mexico. Along its major flow network, the river basin covers six different climate regions characterized on the basis of similar attributes of vegetation, temperature, humidity, rainfall, and seasonal weather changes, by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Our previous research on Texas climatology illustrated intensified precipitation regimes, which tend to result in extreme flood events. Such events have caused huge losses of lives and infrastructure in the Brazos River basin. Therefore, a region-specific investigation is required for analyzing precipitation regimes along the geographically-diverse river network. Owing to the topographical and hydroclimatological variations along the flow network, 24-hour Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) was estimated for different hydrologic units along the river network, using the revised Hershfield's method devised by Lan et al. (2017). The method incorporates the use of a standardized variable describing the maximum deviation from the average of a sample scaled by the standard deviation of the sample. The hydrometeorological literature identifies this method as more reasonable and consistent with the frequency equation. With respect to the calculation of stable data size required for statistically reliable results, this study also quantified the respective uncertainty associated with PMP values in different hydrologic units. The corresponding range of return periods of PMPs in different hydrologic units was further evaluated using the inverse CDF functions of the most appropriate probability distributions. The analysis will aid regional water boards in designing hydraulic structures, such as dams, spillways, levees, and in identifying and implementing prevention and control mechanisms for extreme flood events resulting from the PMPs.

Potential hazards from floodflows in Grapevine Canyon, Death Valley National Monument, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, J.C.

1990-01-01

Grapevine Canyon is on the western slope of the Grapevine Mountains in the northern part of Death Valley National Monument , California and Nevada. Grapevine Canyon Road covers the entire width of the canyon floor in places and is a frequently traveled route to Scotty 's Castle in the canyon. The region is arid and subject to flash flooding because of infrequent but intense convective storms. When these storms occur, normally in the summer, the resulting floods may create a hazard to visitor safety and property. Historical data on rainfall and floodflow in Grapevine Canyon are sparse. Data from studies made for similar areas in the desert mountains of southern California provide the basis for estimating discharges and the corresponding frequency of floods in the study area. Results of this study indicate that high-velocity flows of water and debris , even at shallow depths, may scour and damage Grapevine Canyon Road. When discharge exceeds 4,900 cu ft/sec, expected at a recurrence interval of between 25 and 50 years, the Scotty 's Castle access road and bridge may be damaged and the parking lot partly inundated. A flood having a 100-year or greater recurrence interval probably would wash out the bridge and present a hazard to the stable and garage buildings but not to the castle buildings, whose foundations are higher than the predicted maximum flood level. (USGS)

The impact of flood variables on riparian vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzubakova, Katarina; Molnar, Peter

2016-04-01

The riparian vegetation of Alpine rivers often grows in temporally dynamic riverine environments which are characterized by pronounced meteorological and hydrological fluctuations and high resource competition. Within these relatively rough conditions, riparian vegetation fulfils essential ecosystem functions such as water retention, biomass production and habitat to endangered species. The identification of relevant flood attributes impacting riparian vegetation is crucial for a better understanding of the vegetation dynamics in the riverine ecosystem. Hence, in this contribution we aim to quantify the ecological effects of flood attributes on riparian vegetation and to analyze the spatial coherence of flood-vegetation interaction patterns. We analyzed a 500 m long and 300-400 m wide study reach located on the Maggia River in southern Switzerland. Altogether five floods between 2008 and 2011 with return periods ranging from 1.4 to 20.1 years were studied. To assess the significance of the flood attributes, we compared post-flood to pre-flood vegetation vigour to flood intensity. Pre- and post-flood vegetation vigour was represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) which was computed from images recorded by high resolution ground-based cameras. Flood intensity was expressed in space in the study reach by six flood attributes (inundation duration, maximum depth, maximum and total velocity, maximum and total shear stress) which were simulated by the 2D hydrodynamic model BASEMENT (VAW, ETH Zurich). We considered three floodplain units separately (main bar, secondary bar, transitional zone). Based on our results, pre-flood vegetation vigour largely determined vegetation reaction to the less intense floods (R = 0.59-0.96). However for larger floods with a strong erosive effect, its contribution was significantly lower (R = 0.59-0.68). Using multivariate regression analysis we show that pre-flood vegetation vigour and maximum velocity proved to be the most significant variables impacting vegetation response. Generally, maximal flood attributes had more significant impacts than integrated attributes over the flood duration. Additional explanatory variables in the model should account for vegetation heterogeneity, groundwater conditions and different effects of lateral and surface erosion.

Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

2018-05-01

Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

Flood-hazard analysis of four headwater streams draining the Argonne National Laboratory property, DuPage County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soong, David T.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Straub, Timothy D.; Zeeb, Hannah L.

2016-11-22

Results of a flood-hazard analysis conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Argonne National Laboratory, for four headwater streams within the Argonne National Laboratory property indicate that the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods would cause multiple roads to be overtopped. Results indicate that most of the effects on the infrastructure would be from flooding of Freund Brook. Flooding on the Northeast and Southeast Drainage Ways would be limited to overtopping of one road crossing for each of those streams. The Northwest Drainage Way would be the least affected with flooding expected to occur in open grass or forested areas.The Argonne Site Sustainability Plan outlined the development of hydrologic and hydraulic models and the creation of flood-plain maps of the existing site conditions as a first step in addressing resiliency to possible climate change impacts as required by Executive Order 13653 “Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change.” The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN is the hydrologic model used in the study, and the Hydrologic Engineering Center‒River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) is the hydraulic model. The model results were verified by comparing simulated water-surface elevations to observed water-surface elevations measured at a network of five crest-stage gages on the four study streams. The comparison between crest-stage gage and simulated elevations resulted in an average absolute difference of 0.06 feet and a maximum difference of 0.19 feet.In addition to the flood-hazard model development and mapping, a qualitative stream assessment was conducted to evaluate stream channel and substrate conditions in the study reaches. This information can be used to evaluate erosion potential.

Peak streamflow on selected streams in Arkansas, December 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breaker, Brian K.

2017-01-11

Heavy rainfall during December 2015 resulted in flooding across parts of Arkansas; rainfall amounts were as high as 12 inches over a period from December 27, 2015, to December 29, 2015. Although precipitation accumulations were highest in northwestern Arkansas, significant flooding occurred in other parts of the State. Flood damage occurred in several counties as water levels rose in streams, and disaster declarations were declared in 32 of the 75 counties in Arkansas.Given the severity of the December 2015 flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), conducted a study to document the meteorological and hydrological conditions prior to and during the flood; compiled flood-peak gage heights, streamflows, and flood probabilities at USGS streamflow-gaging stations; and estimated streamflows and flood probabilities at selected ungaged locations.

Consistency of extreme flood estimation approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used for the planning of infrastructure as well as for determining the dimensions of flood protection measures. There are several well-established methodical procedures to estimate low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve, the "true value" of an extreme flood being not observable. Anyway, a detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In this study, the following three different approaches for estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical approach (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical approach based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic approach (physically based PMF estimation). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments. The results and some intermediate variables are used for assessing potential strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as for evaluating the consistency of these methods.

Flood of August 2, 1972, in the Little Maquoketa River basin, Dubuque County, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinitz, Albert J.

1973-01-01

Flood-peak discharges at 12 sites, basin rainfall, a description of the 1972 flood, brief accounts of other major floods in the basin, maximum flood peaks in northeastern Iowa, selected flood-frequency data, and annual floods of record at 5 sites are given.

Thunderstorms and flooding of August 17, 2007, with a context provided by a history of other large storm and flood events in the Black Hills area of South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Driscoll, Daniel G.; Bunkers, Matthew J.; Carter, Janet M.; Stamm, John F.; Williamson, Joyce E.

2010-01-01

The Black Hills area of western South Dakota has a history of damaging flash floods that have resulted primarily from exceptionally strong rain-producing thunderstorms. The best known example is the catastrophic storm system of June 9-10, 1972, which caused severe flooding in several major drainages near Rapid City and resulted in 238 deaths. More recently, severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding near Piedmont and Hermosa on August 17, 2007. Obtaining a thorough understanding of peak-flow characteristics for low-probability floods will require a comprehensive long-term approach involving (1) documentation of scientific information for extreme events such as these; (2) long-term collection of systematic peak-flow records; and (3) regional assessments of a wide variety of peak-flow information. To that end, the U.S. Geological Survey cooperated with the South Dakota Department of Transportation and National Weather Service to produce this report, which provides documentation regarding the August 17, 2007, storm and associated flooding and provides a context through examination of other large storm and flood events in the Black Hills area. The area affected by the August 17, 2007, storms and associated flooding generally was within the area affected by the larger storm of June 9-10, 1972. The maximum observed 2007 precipitation totals of between 10.00 and 10.50 inches occurred within about 2-3 hours in a small area about 5 miles west of Hermosa. The maximum documented precipitation amount in 1972 was 15.0 inches, and precipitation totals of 10.0 inches or more were documented for 34 locations within an area of about 76 square miles. A peak flow of less than 1 cubic foot per second occurred upstream from the 2007 storm extent for streamflow-gaging station 06404000 (Battle Creek near Keystone); whereas, the 1972 peak flow of 26,200 cubic feet per second was large, relative to the drainage area of only 58.6 square miles. Farther downstream along Battle Creek, a 2007 flow of 26,000 cubic feet per second was generated entirely within an intervening drainage area of only 44.4 square miles. An especially large flow of 44,100 cubic feet per second was documented for this location in 1972. The 2007 peak flow of 18,600 cubic feet per second for Battle Creek at Hermosa (station 06406000) was only slightly smaller than the 1972 peak flow of 21,400 cubic feet per second. Peak-flow values from 2007 for three sites with small drainage areas (less than 1.0 square mile) plot close to a regional envelope curve, indicating exceptionally large flow values, relative to drainage area. Physiographic factors that affect flooding in the area were examined. The limestone headwater hydrogeologic setting (within and near the Limestone Plateau area on the western flank of the Black Hills) has distinctively suppressed peak-flow characteristics for small recurrence intervals. Uncertainty is large, however, regarding characteristics for large recurrence intervals (low-probability floods) because of a dearth of information regarding the potential for generation of exceptionally strong rain-producing thunderstorms. In contrast, the greatest potential for exceptionally damaging floods is around the flanks of the rest of the Black Hills area because of steep topography and limited potential for attenuation of flood peaks in narrow canyons. Climatological factors that affect area flooding also were examined. Area thunderstorms are largely terrain-driven, especially with respect to their requisite upward motion, which can be initiated by orographic lifting effects, thermally enhanced circulations, and obstacle effects. Several other meteorological processes are influential in the development of especially heavy precipitation for the area, including storm cell training, storm anchoring or regeneration, storm mergers, supercell development, and weak upper-level air flow. A composite of storm total precipitation amounts for 13 recent individual storm events indicates

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for selected gaging stations on and near the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho, through September 1990

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, M.A.J.; Mann, Larry J.; Kjelstrom, L.C.

1993-01-01

Statistical summaries and graphs of streamflow data were prepared for 13 gaging stations with 5 or more years of continuous record on and near the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Statistical summaries of streamflow data for the Big and Little Lost Rivers and Birch Creek were analyzed as a requisite for a comprehensive evaluation of the potential for flooding of facilities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The type of statistical analyses performed depended on the length of streamflow record for a gaging station. Streamflow statistics generated for stations with 5 to 9 years of record were: (1) magnitudes of monthly and annual flows; (2) duration of daily mean flows; and (3) maximum, median, and minimum daily mean flows. Streamflow statistics generated for stations with 10 or more years of record were: (1) magnitudes of monthly and annual flows; (2) magnitudes and frequencies of daily low, high, instantaneous peak (flood frequency), and annual mean flows; (3) duration of daily mean flows; (4) exceedance probabilities of annual low, high, instantaneous peak, and mean annual flows; (5) maximum, median, and minimum daily mean flows; and (6) annual mean and mean annual flows.

Floods of May 1978 in southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Carlson, D.D.; Craig, G.S.; Chin, E.H.

1984-01-01

Heavy rain and some snow fell on previously saturated ground over southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming during May 16-19, 1978. The maximum amount of 7.60 inches within a 72-hour period observed at Lame Deer, Montana, set a record for the month of May in that region. Heavy flooding occurred in the drainages of the Yellowstone River and its tributaries as well as the Belle Fourche, Cheyenne, and North Platte Rivers. The previous maximum flood of record was exceeded at 48 gaged sites, and the 1-percent chance flood was equaled or exceeded at 24 sites. Flood damage was extensive, exceeding $33 million. Nineteen counties in the two States were declared major disaster areas. Mean daily suspended-sediment discharges exceeded previously recorded maximum mean daily values at four sites on the Powder River. The maximum daily suspended-sediment discharge of 2,810,000 tons per day occurred on May 20 at the Site Powder River near Arvada, Wyoming. (USGS)

Floods of May 30 to June 15, 2008, in the Iowa and Cedar River basins, eastern Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linhart, Mike S.; Eash, David A.

2010-01-01

As a result of prolonged and intense periods of rainfall in late May and early June, 2008, along with heavier than normal snowpack the previous winter, record flooding occurred in Iowa in the Iowa River and Cedar River Basins. The storms were part of an exceptionally wet period from May 29 through June 12, when an Iowa statewide average of 9.03 inches of rain fell; the normal statewide average for the same period is 2.45 inches. From May 29 to June 13, the 16-day rainfall totals recorded at rain gages in Iowa Falls and Clutier were 14.00 and 13.83 inches, respectively. Within the Iowa River Basin, peak discharges of 51,000 cubic feet per second (flood-probability estimate of 0.2 to 1 percent) at the 05453100 Iowa River at Marengo, Iowa streamflow-gaging station (streamgage) on June 12, and of 39,900 cubic feet per second (flood-probability estimate of 0.2 to 1 percent) at the 05453520 Iowa River below Coralville Dam near Coralville, Iowa streamgage on June 15 are the largest floods on record for those sites. A peak discharge of 41,100 cubic feet per second (flood-probability estimate of 0.2 to 1 percent) on June 15 at the 05454500 Iowa River at Iowa City, Iowa streamgage is the fourth highest on record, but is the largest flood since regulation by the Coralville Dam began in 1958. Within the Cedar River Basin, the May 30 to June 15, 2008, flood is the largest on record at all six streamgages in Iowa located on the mainstem of the Cedar River and at five streamgages located on the major tributaries. Flood-probability estimates for 10 of these 11 streamgages are less than 1 percent. Peak discharges of 112,000 cubic feet per second (flood-probability estimate of 0.2 to 1 percent) at the 05464000 Cedar River at Waterloo, Iowa streamgage on June 11 and of 140,000 cubic feet per second (flood-probability estimate of less than 0.2 percent) at the 05464500 Cedar River at Cedar Rapids, Iowa streamgage on June 13 are the largest floods on record for those sites. Downstream from the confluence of the Iowa and Cedar Rivers, the peak discharge of 188,000 cubic feet per second (flood-probability estimate of less than 0.2 percent) at the 05465500 Iowa River at Wapello, Iowa streamgage on June 14, 2008, is the largest flood on record in the Iowa River and Cedar River Basins since 1903. High-water marks were measured at 88 locations along the Iowa River between State Highway 99 near Oakville and U.S. Highway 69 in Belmond, a distance of 319 river miles. High-water marks were measured at 127 locations along the Cedar River between Fredonia near the mouth (confluence with the Iowa River) and Riverview Drive north of Charles City, a distance of 236 river miles. The high-water marks were used to develop flood profiles for the Iowa and Cedar River.

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay

PubMed Central

Oddo, Perry C.; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies. PMID:28350884

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

PubMed

Ruckert, Kelsey L; Oddo, Perry C; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

Precipitation thresholds for triggering floods in Corgo hydrographic basin (Northern Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Monica; Fragoso, Marcelo

2016-04-01

The precipitation is a major cause of natural hazards and is therefore related to the flood events (Borga et al., 2011; Gaál et al., 2014; Wilhelmi & Morss, 2013). The severity of a precipitation event and their potential damage is dependent on the total amount of rain but also on the intensity and duration event (Gaál et al., 2014). In this work, it was established thresholds based on critical combinations: amount / duration of flood events with daily rainfall data for Corgo hydrographic basin, in northern Portugal. In Corgo basin are recorded 31 floods events between 1865 and 2011 (Santos et al., 2015; Zêzere et al., 2014). We determined the minimum, maximum and pre-warning thresholds that define the boundaries so that an event may occur. Additionally, we applied these thresholds to different flood events occurred in the past in the study basin. The results show that the ratio between the flood events and precipitation events that occur above the minimum threshold has relatively low probability of a flood happen. These results may be related to the reduced number of floods events (only those that caused damage reported by the media and produced some type of damage). The maximum threshold is not useful for floods forecasting, since the majority of true positives are below this limit. The retrospective analysis of the thresholds defined suggests that the minimum and pre warning thresholds are well adjusted. The application of rainfall thresholds contribute to minimize possible situations of pre-crisis or immediate crisis, reducing the consequences and the resources involved in emergency response of flood events. References Borga, M., Anagnostou, E. N., Blöschl, G., & Creutin, J. D. (2011). Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project. Environmental Science & Policy, 14(7), 834-844. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.017 Gaál, L., Molnar, P., & Szolgay, J. (2014). Selection of intense rainfall events based on intensity thresholds and lightning data in Switzerland. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18(5), 1561-1573. doi: 10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014 Santos, M., Santos, J. A., & Fragoso, M. (2015). Historical damaging flood records for 1871-2011 in Northern Portugal and underlying atmospheric forcings. Journal of Hydrology, 530, 591-603. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.10.011 Wilhelmi, O. V., & Morss, R. E. (2013). Integrated analysis of societal vulnerability in an extreme precipitation event: A Fort Collins case study. Environmental Science & Policy, 26, 49-62. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.07.005 Zêzere, J. L., Pereira, S., Tavares, A. O., Bateira, C., Trigo, R. M., Quaresma, I., Santos, P. P., Santos, M., & Verde, J. (2014). DISASTER: a GIS database on hydro-geomorphologic disasters in Portugal. Nat. Hazards, 1-30. doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-1018-y

Developing an event-tree probabilistic tsunami inundation model for NE Atlantic coasts: Application to case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana; Matias, Luis

2015-04-01

This study constitutes the first assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region, using an event-tree approach. It aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami inundation approach for the NE Atlantic coast with an application to two test sites of ASTARTE project, Tangier-Morocco and Sines-Portugal. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account near-, regional- and far-filed sources. The multidisciplinary approach, proposed here, consists of an event-tree method that gathers seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modelling, and statistical methods. It presents also a treatment of uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage in order to derive the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height during a given return period. We derive high-resolution probabilistic maximum wave heights and flood distributions for both test-sites Tangier and Sines considering 100-, 500-, and 1000-year return periods. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 55% for 100-year return period, and is up to 100% for 1000-year return period. Along Tangier coast, the probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth > 0m) is up to 45% for 100-year return period and reaches 96% in some near-shore costal location for 500-year return period. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Hydraulic and Geomorphic Assessment of the Merced River and Historic Bridges in Eastern Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California: Sacramento, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minear, J. Toby; Wright, Scott A.

2013-01-01

The Merced River in the popular and picturesque eastern-most part of Yosemite Valley in Yosemite National Park, California, USA, has been extensively altered since the park was first conceived in 1864. Historical human trampling of streambanks has been suggested as the cause of substantial increases in stream width, and the construction of undersized stone bridges in the 1920s has been suggested as the major factor leading to an increase in overbank flooding due to deposition of bars and islands between the bridges. In response, the National Park Service at Yosemite National Park (YNP) requested a study of the hydraulic and geomorphic conditions affecting the most-heavily influenced part of the river, a 2.4-km reach in eastern Yosemite Valley extending from above the Tenaya Creek and Merced River confluence to below Housekeeping Bridge. As part of the study, present-day conditions were compared to historical conditions and several possible planning scenarios were investigated, including the removal of an elevated road berm and the removal of three undersized historic stone bridges identified by YNP as potential problems: Sugar Pine, Ahwahnee and Stoneman Bridges. This Open-File Report will be superseded at a later date by a Scientific Investigations Report. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, the USGS FaSTMECH (Flow and Sediment Transport with Morphological Evolution of Channels) model, within the USGS International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) model framework, was used to compare the scenarios over a range of discharges with annual exceedance probabilities of 50-, 20-, 10-, and 5- percent. A variety of topographic and hydraulic data sources were used to create the input conditions to the hydrodynamic model, including aerial LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging), ground-based LiDAR, total station survey data, and grain size data from pebble counts. A digitized version of a historical topographic map created by the USGS in 1919, combined with estimates of grain size, was used to simulate historical conditions, and the planning scenarios were developed by altering the present-day topography. Roughness was estimated independently of measured water-surface elevations by using the mapped grain-size data and the Keulegan relation of grain size to drag coefficient. The FaSTMECH hydrodynamic model was evaluated against measured water levels by using a 130.9 m3 s-1 flow (approximately a 33-percent annual exceedance probability flood) with 36 water-surface elevations measured by YNP personnel on June 8, 2010. This evaluation run had a root mean square error of 0.21 m between the simulated- and observed water-surface elevations (less than 10 percent of depth), though the observed water-surface elevations had relatively high variation due to the strong diurnal stage changes over the course of the 4.4-hour collection period, during which discharge varied by about 15 percent. There are presently no velocity data with which to test the model. A geomorphic assessment was performed that consisted of an estimate of the magnitude and frequency of bedload and suspended-sediment transport at “Tenaya Bar”, an important gravel-cobble bar located near the upstream end of the study site that determines the amount of flow across the floodplain at the Sugar Pine – Ahwahnee bend. An analysis of select repeat cross-sections collected by YNP since the late 1980s was done to investigate changes in channel cross-sectional area near the Tenaya Bar site. The results of the FaSTMECH models indicate that the maximum velocities in the present-day channel within the study reach are associated with Stoneman and Sugar Pine Bridges, at close to 3.0 m s-1 for the 5-percent annual exceedance probability flood. The modeled maximum velocities at Ahwahnee Bridge are comparatively low, at between 1.5 and 2.0 m s-1, most likely due to the bridge's orientation parallel to down-valley floodplain flows. The results of the FaSTMECH models for the bridge removal scenarios indicate a reduction in average velocity at the bridge sites for the range of flows by approximately 23-38 percent (Sugar Pine Bridge), 32-42 percent (Ahwahnee Bridge), and 33-39 percent (Stoneman Bridge), though a side channel of concern to YNP management did not appear to be substantially affected by the removal scenarios. In comparison to the historical data, the FaSTMECH results suggest that flows for present-day conditions do not inundate the floodplain until between the 50- and 20-percent annual exceedance probability flood, whereas historically, a large portion of the floodplain was inundated during the 50-percent annual exceedance probability flood. Modeled maximum velocities in the present-day channel commonly exceed 2.0 m s-1, whereas with the historical scenario, modeled maximum in-channel velocities rarely exceeded 2.0 m s-1. The geomorphic analysis of the magnitude-frequency of bedload and suspended-sediment transport suggests that at the important Tenaya Bar site, the majority of bed sediment is mobile during most snowmelt-dominated floods. In contrast to sediment transport capacity, the analysis of repeat cross-sections suggests that bedload sediment supply into the eastern Yosemite Valley may be quite different between rain-on-snow floods and snowmelt-dominated floods, potentially with most sediment supply occurring during rain-on-snow floods, such as the 1997 flood. In contrast, the magnitude-frequency analysis of bedload and suspended-sediment transport suggests that long-term bedload sediment transport is likely dominated by snowmelt floods, and suspended-sediment transport is relatively low compared to bedload transport. Obtaining measured velocity data throughout the study reach would aid in model calibration, and thus would improve confidence in model results. Improved confidence in the model velocity results would allow additional substantial analyses of reach-scale effects of the planning scenarios and would enable the development of geomorphic models to evaluate the long-term geomorphic responses of the site. In addition, the collection of watershed sediment-supply data, about which little is presently known, would give planners helpful tools to plan restoration scenarios for this nationally important river.

Dam failure analysis for the Lago El Guineo Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gómez-Fragoso, Julieta; Heriberto Torres-Sierra,

2016-08-09

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, completed hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to assess the potential hazard to human life and property associated with the hypothetical failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. The Lago El Guineo Dam is within the headwaters of the Río Grande de Manatí and impounds a drainage area of about 4.25 square kilometers.The hydrologic assessment was designed to determine the outflow hydrographs and peak discharges for Lago El Guineo and other subbasins in the Río Grande de Manatí hydrographic basin for three extreme rainfall events: (1) a 6-hour probable maximum precipitation event, (2) a 24-hour probable maximum precipitation event, and (3) a 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event. The hydraulic study simulated a dam failure of Lago El Guineo Dam using flood hydrographs generated from the hydrologic study. The simulated dam failure generated a hydrograph that was routed downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam through the lower reaches of the Río Toro Negro and the Río Grande de Manatí to determine water-surface profiles developed from the event-based hydrologic scenarios and “sunny day” conditions. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) computer programs, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were used for the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, respectively. The flow routing in the hydraulic analyses was completed using the unsteady flow module available in the HEC–RAS model.Above the Lago El Guineo Dam, the simulated inflow peak discharges from HEC–HMS resulted in about 550 and 414 cubic meters per second for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events, respectively. The 24-hour, 100-year recurrence storm simulation resulted in a peak discharge of about 216 cubic meters per second. For the hydrologic analysis, no dam failure conditions are considered within the model. The results of the hydrologic simulations indicated that for all hydrologic conditions scenarios, the Lago El Guineo Dam would not experience overtopping. For the dam breach hydraulic analysis, failure by piping was the selected hypothetical failure mode for the Lago El Guineo Dam.Results from the simulated dam failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam using the HEC–RAS model for the 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events indicated peak discharges below the dam of 1,342.43 and 1,434.69 cubic meters per second, respectively. Dam failure during the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event resulted in a peak discharge directly downstream from Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,183.12 cubic meters per second. Dam failure during sunny-day conditions (no precipitation) produced a peak discharge at Lago El Guineo Dam of 1,015.31 cubic meters per second assuming the initial water-surface elevation was at the morning-glory spillway invert elevation.The results of the hydraulic analysis indicate that the flood would extend to many inhabited areas along the stream banks from the Lago El Guineo Dam to the mouth of the Río Grande as a result of the simulated failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Low-lying regions in the vicinity of Ciales, Manatí, and Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, are among the regions that would be most affected by failure of the Lago El Guineo Dam. Effects of the flood control (levee) structure constructed in 2000 to provide protection to the low-lying populated areas of Barceloneta, Puerto Rico, were considered in the hydraulic analysis of dam failure. The results indicate that overtopping can be expected in the aforementioned levee during 6- and 24-hour probable maximum precipitation events. The levee was not overtopped during dam failure scenarios under the 24-hour, 100-year recurrence rainfall event or sunny-day conditions.

Real Option Cost Vulnerability Analysis of Electrical Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prime, Thomas; Knight, Phil

2015-04-01

Critical infrastructure such as electricity substations are vulnerable to various geo-hazards that arise from climate change. These geo-hazards range from increased vegetation growth to increased temperatures and flood inundation. Of all the identified geo-hazards, coastal flooding has the greatest impact, but to date has had a low probability of occurring. However, in the face of climate change, coastal flooding is likely to occur more often due to extreme water levels being experienced more frequently due to sea-level rise (SLR). Knowing what impact coastal flooding will have now and in the future on critical infrastructure such as electrical substations is important for long-term management. Using a flood inundation model, present day and future flood events have been simulated, from 1 in 1 year events up to 1 in 10,000 year events. The modelling makes an integrated assessment of impact by using sea-level and surge to simulate a storm tide. The geographical area the model covers is part of the Northwest UK coastline with a range of urban and rural areas. The ensemble of flood maps generated allows the identification of critical infrastructure exposed to coastal flooding. Vulnerability has be assessed using an Estimated Annual Damage (EAD) value. Sampling SLR annual probability distributions produces a projected "pathway" for SLR up to 2100. EAD is then calculated using a relationship derived from the flood model. Repeating the sampling process allows a distribution of EAD up to 2100 to be produced. These values are discounted to present day values using an appropriate discount rate. If the cost of building and maintain defences is also removed from this a Net Present Value (NPV) of building the defences can be calculated. This distribution of NPV can be used as part of a cost modelling process involving Real Options, A real option is the right but not obligation to undertake investment decisions. In terms of investment in critical infrastructure resilience this means that a real option can be deferred or exercised depending on the climate future that has been realised. The real option value is defined as the maximum positive NPV value that is found across the range of potential SLR "futures". Real Options add value in that flood defences may not be built when there is real value in doing so. The cost modelling output is in the form of an accessible database that has detailed real option values varying spatially across the model domain (for each critical infrastructure) and temporally up to 2100. The analysis has shown that in 2100, 8.2% of the substations analysed have a greater than a 1 in 2 chance of exercising the real option to build flood defences against coastal flooding. The cost modelling tool and flood maps that have been developed will help stakeholders in deciding where and when to invest in mitigating against coastal flooding.

Ditching Investigation of a 1/12-Scale Model of the Douglas F4D-1 Airplane, TED No. NACA DE 384

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Windham, John O.

1956-01-01

A ditching investigation was made of a l/l2-scale dynamically similar model of the Douglas F4D-1 airplane to study its behavior when ditched. The model was landed in calm water at the Langley tank no. 2 monorail. Various landing attitudes, speeds, and configurations were investigated. The behavior of the model was determined from visual observations, acceleration records, and motion-picture records of the ditchings. Data are presented in tables, sequence photographs, time-history acceleration curves, and attitude curves. From the results of the investigation, it was concluded that the airplane should be ditched at the lowest speed and highest attitude consistent with adequate control (near 22 deg) with landing gear retracted. In a calm-water ditching under these conditions the airplane will probably nose in slightly, then make a fairly smooth run. The fuselage bottom will sustain appreciable damage so that rapid flooding and short flotation time are likely. Maximum longitudinal deceleration will be about 4g and maximum normal acceleration will be about 6g in a landing run of about 420 feet, In a calm-water ditching under similar conditions with the landing gear extended, the airplane will probably dive. Maximum longitudinal decelerations will be about 5-1/2g and maximum normal accelerations will be about 3-1/2g in a landing run of about 170 feet.

Maximum known stages and discharges of New York streams and their annual exceedance probabilities through September 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wall, Gary R.; Murray, Patricia M.; Lumia, Richard; Suro, Thomas P.

2014-01-01

Maximum known stages and discharges at 1,400 sites on 796 streams within New York are tabulated. Stage data are reported in feet. Discharges are reported as cubic feet per second and in cubic feet per second per square mile. Drainage areas range from 0.03 to 298,800 square miles; excluding the three sites with larger drainage areas on the St. Lawrence and Niagara Rivers, which drain the Great Lakes, the maximum drainage area is 8,288 square miles (Hudson River at Albany). Most data were obtained from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) compilations and records, but some were provided by State, local, and other Federal agencies and by private organizations. The stage and discharge information is grouped by major drainage basins and U.S. Geological Survey site number, in downstream order. Site locations and their associated drainage area, period(s) of record, stage and discharge data, and flood-frequency statistics are compiled in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Flood frequencies were derived for 1,238 sites by using methods described in Bulletin 17B (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), Ries and Crouse (2002), and Lumia and others (2006). Curves that “envelope” maximum discharges within their range of drainage areas were developed for each of six flood-frequency hydrologic regions and for sites on Long Island, as well as for the State of New York; the New York curve was compared with a curve derived from a plot of maximum known discharges throughout the United States. Discharges represented by the national curve range from at least 2.7 to 4.9 times greater than those represented by the New York curve for drainage areas of 1.0 and 1,000 square miles. The relative magnitudes of discharge and runoff in the six hydrologic regions of New York and Long Island suggest the largest known discharges per square mile are in the southern part of western New York and the Catskill Mountain area, and the smallest are on Long Island.

Flood-inundation maps for a 15-mile reach of the Kalamazoo River from Marshall to Battle Creek, Michigan, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, C.J.; Fowler, K.K.; Kim, M.H.; Menke, C.D.; Morlock, S.E.; Peppler, M.C.; Rachol, C.M.; Whitehead, M.T.

2010-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 15-mile reach of the Kalamazoo River from Marshall to Battle Creek, Michigan, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to help guide remediation efforts following a crude-oil spill on July 25, 2010. The spill happened on Talmadge Creek, a tributary of the Kalamazoo River near Marshall, during a flood. The floodwaters transported the spilled oil down the Kalamazoo River and deposited oil in impoundments and on the surfaces of islands and flood plains. Six flood-inundation maps were constructed corresponding to the flood stage (884.09 feet) coincident with the oil spill on July 25, 2010, as well as for floods with annual exceedance probabilities of 0.2, 1, 2, 4, and 10 percent. Streamflow at the USGS streamgage at Marshall, Michigan (USGS site ID 04103500), was used to calculate the flood probabilities. From August 13 to 18, 2010, 35 channel cross sections, 17 bridges and 1 dam were surveyed. These data were used to construct a water-surface profile for the July 25, 2010, flood by use of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The calibrated model was used to estimate water-surface profiles for other flood probabilities. The resulting six flood-inundation maps were created with a geographic information system by combining flood profiles with a 1.2-foot vertical and 10-foot horizontal resolution digital elevation model derived from Light Detection and Ranging data.

A joint probability approach for coincidental flood frequency analysis at ungauged basin confluences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Cheng

2016-03-12

A reliable and accurate flood frequency analysis at the confluence of streams is of importance. Given that long-term peak flow observations are often unavailable at tributary confluences, at a practical level, this paper presents a joint probability approach (JPA) to address the coincidental flood frequency analysis at the ungauged confluence of two streams based on the flow rate data from the upstream tributaries. One case study is performed for comparison against several traditional approaches, including the position-plotting formula, the univariate flood frequency analysis, and the National Flood Frequency Program developed by US Geological Survey. It shows that the results generatedmore » by the JPA approach agree well with the floods estimated by the plotting position and univariate flood frequency analysis based on the observation data.« less

A framework for global river flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Bouwman, A.; Ward, P. J.; Jongman, B.

2012-04-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks. Such assessments may be required by: (a) International Financing Institutes and Disaster Management Agencies to evaluate where, when, and which investments in flood risk mitigation are most required; (b) (re-)insurers, who need to determine their required coverage capital; and (c) large companies to account for risks of regional investments. In this contribution, we propose a framework for global river flood risk assessment. The framework combines coarse scale resolution hazard probability distributions, derived from global hydrological model runs (typical scale about 0.5 degree resolution) with high resolution estimates of exposure indicators. The high resolution is required because floods typically occur at a much smaller scale than the typical resolution of global hydrological models, and exposure indicators such as population, land use and economic value generally are strongly variable in space and time. The framework therefore estimates hazard at a high resolution ( 1 km2) by using a) global forcing data sets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate; b) a global hydrological model; c) a global flood routing model, and d) importantly, a flood spatial downscaling routine. This results in probability distributions of annual flood extremes as an indicator of flood hazard, at the appropriate resolution. A second component of the framework combines the hazard probability distribution with classical flood impact models (e.g. damage, affected GDP, affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk. The framework can be applied with a large number of datasets and models and sensitivities of such choices can be evaluated by the user. The framework is applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, combined with a global flood routing model. Downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution is performed with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on a number of target regions. We demonstrate the use of impact models in these regions based on global GDP, population, and land use maps. In this application, we show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input datasets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish distributed estimates of GDP and asset exposure to flooding.

A comprehensive multi-scenario based approach for a reliable flood-hazard assessment: a case-study application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanni, Cristiano; Mazzorana, Bruno; Volcan, Claudio; Bertagnolli, Rudi

2015-04-01

Flood hazard is generally assessed by assuming the return period of the rainfall as a proxy for the return period of the discharge and the related hydrograph. Frequently this deterministic view is extended also to the straightforward application of hydrodynamic models. However, the climate (i.e. precipitation), the catchment (i.e. geology, soil and antecedent soil-moisture condition) and the anthropogenic (i.e. drainage system and its regulation) systems interact in a complex way, and the occurrence probability of a flood inundation event can significantly differ from the occurrence probability of the triggering event (i.e. rainfall). In order to reliably determine the spatial patterns of flood intensities and probabilities, the rigorous determination of flood event scenarios is beneficial because it provides a clear, rationale method to recognize and unveil the inherent stochastic behavior of natural processes. Therefore, a multi-scenario approach for hazard assessment should be applied and should consider the possible events taking place in the area potentially subject to flooding (i.e. floodplains). Here, we apply a multi-scenario approach for the assessment of the flood hazard around the Idro lake (Italy). We consider and estimate the probability of occurrence of several scenarios related to the initial (i.e. initial water level in the lake) and boundary (i.e. shape of the hydrograph, downslope drainage, spillway opening operations) conditions characterizing the lake. Finally, we discuss the advantages and issues of the presented methodological procedure compared to traditional (and essentially deterministic) approaches.

Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

2016-04-01

In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

Flooding in the southern Midwestern United States, April–May 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heimann, David C.; Holmes, Robert R.; Harris, Thomas E.

2018-03-09

Excessive rainfall resulted in flooding on numerous rivers throughout the southern Midwestern United States (southern Midwest) in late April and early May of 2017. The heaviest rainfall, between April 28 and 30, resulted in extensive flooding from eastern Oklahoma to southern Indiana including parts of Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois.Peak-of-record streamflows were set at 21 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages in the southern Midwest during the resulting April–May 2017 flooding and each of the five States included in the study area had at least one streamgage with a peak of record during the flood. The annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimates for the April–May 2017 peak streamflows indicate that peaks at 5 USGS streamgages had AEPs of 0.2 percent or less (500-year recurrence interval or greater), and peak streamflows at 15 USGS streamgages had AEPs in the range from greater than 0.2 to 1 percent (500- to 100-year recurrence intervals).Examination of the magnitude of the temporal changes in median annual peak streamflows indicated positive increases, in general, throughout the study area for each of the 1930–2017, 1956–2017, 1975–2017, and 1989–2017 analysis periods. The median increase in peak streamflows was greatest in 1975–2017 and 1989–2017 with maximum increases of 8 to 10 percent per year. No stations in the 1975–2017 or 1989–2017 analysis period had median negative changes in peak streamflows.

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2013-05-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

On the objective identification of flood seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; BobéE, Bernard

2004-01-01

The determination of seasons of high and low probability of flood occurrence is a task with many practical applications in contemporary hydrology and water resources management. Flood seasons are generally identified subjectively by visually assessing the temporal distribution of flood occurrences and, then at a regional scale, verified by comparing the temporal distribution with distributions obtained at hydrologically similar neighboring sites. This approach is subjective, time consuming, and potentially unreliable. The main objective of this study is therefore to introduce a new, objective, and systematic method for the identification of flood seasons. The proposed method tests the significance of flood seasons by comparing the observed variability of flood occurrences with the theoretical flood variability in a nonseasonal model. The method also addresses the uncertainty resulting from sampling variability by quantifying the probability associated with the identified flood seasons. The performance of the method was tested on an extensive number of samples with different record lengths generated from several theoretical models of flood seasonality. The proposed approach was then applied on real data from a large set of sites with different flood regimes across Great Britain. The results show that the method can efficiently identify flood seasons from both theoretical and observed distributions of flood occurrence. The results were used for the determination of the main flood seasonality types in Great Britain.

Water level dynamics in wetlands and nesting success of Black Terns in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilbert, A.T.; Servello, F.A.

2005-01-01

The Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) nests in freshwater wetlands that are prone to water level fluctuations, and nest losses to flooding are common. We examined temporal patterns in water levels at six sites with Black Tern colonies in Maine and determined probabilities of flood events and associated nest loss at Douglas Pond, the location of the largest breeding colony. Daily precipitation data from weather stations and water flow data from a flow gauge below Douglas Pond were obtained for 1960-1999. Information on nest losses from three floods at Douglas Pond in 1997-1999 were used to characterize small (6% nest loss), medium (56% nest loss) and large (94% nest loss) flood events, and we calculated probabilities of these three levels of flooding occurring at Douglas Pond using historic water levels data. Water levels generally decreased gradually during the nesting season at colony sites, except at Douglas Pond where water levels fluctuated substantially in response to rain events. Annual probabilities of small, medium, and large flood events were 68%, 35%, and 13% for nests initiated during 23 May-12 July, with similar probabilities for early (23 May-12 June) and late (13 June-12 July) periods. An index of potential nest loss indicated that medium floods at Douglas Pond had the greatest potential effect on nest success because they occurred relatively frequently and inundated large proportions of nests. Nest losses at other colonies were estimated to be approximately 30% of those at Douglas Pond. Nest losses to flooding appear to be common for the Black Tern in Maine and related to spring precipitation patterns, but ultimate effects on breeding productivity are uncertain.

Development of method for evaluating estimated inundation area by using river flood analysis based on multiple flood scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono, T.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

Non-structural mitigation measures such as flood hazard map based on estimated inundation area have been more important because heavy rains exceeding the design rainfall frequently occur in recent years. However, conventional method may lead to an underestimation of the area because assumed locations of dike breach in river flood analysis are limited to the cases exceeding the high-water level. The objective of this study is to consider the uncertainty of estimated inundation area with difference of the location of dike breach in river flood analysis. This study proposed multiple flood scenarios which can set automatically multiple locations of dike breach in river flood analysis. The major premise of adopting this method is not to be able to predict the location of dike breach correctly. The proposed method utilized interval of dike breach which is distance of dike breaches placed next to each other. That is, multiple locations of dike breach were set every interval of dike breach. The 2D shallow water equations was adopted as the governing equation of river flood analysis, and the leap-frog scheme with staggered grid was used. The river flood analysis was verified by applying for the 2015 Kinugawa river flooding, and the proposed multiple flood scenarios was applied for the Akutagawa river in Takatsuki city. As the result of computation in the Akutagawa river, a comparison with each computed maximum inundation depth of dike breaches placed next to each other proved that the proposed method enabled to prevent underestimation of estimated inundation area. Further, the analyses on spatial distribution of inundation class and maximum inundation depth in each of the measurement points also proved that the optimum interval of dike breach which can evaluate the maximum inundation area using the minimum assumed locations of dike breach. In brief, this study found the optimum interval of dike breach in the Akutagawa river, which enabled estimated maximum inundation area to predict efficiently and accurately. The river flood analysis by using this proposed method will contribute to mitigate flood disaster by improving the accuracy of estimated inundation area.

Ditching Tests of a 1/18-Scale Model of the Lockheed Constellation Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Lloyd J.; Morris, Garland J.

1948-01-01

Tests were made of a 1/18-scale dynamically similar model of the Lockheed Constellation airplane to investigate its ditching characteristics and proper ditching technique. Scale-strength bottoms were used to reproduce probable damage to the fuselage. The model was landed in calm water at the Langley tank no. 2 monorail. Various landing attitudes, speeds, and fuselage configuration were simulated. The behavior of the model was determined from visual observations, by recording the longitudinal decelerations, and by taking motion pictures of the ditchings. Data are presented in tabular form, sequence photographs, and time-history deceleration curves. It was concluded that the airplane should be ditched at a medium nose-high landing attitude with the landing flaps full down. The airplane will probably make a deep run with heavy spray and may even dive slightly. The fuselage will be damaged and leak substantially but in calm water probably will not flood rapidly. Maximum longitudinal decelerations in a calm-water ditching will be about 4g.

A method for mapping flood hazard along roads.

PubMed

Kalantari, Zahra; Nickman, Alireza; Lyon, Steve W; Olofsson, Bo; Folkeson, Lennart

2014-01-15

A method was developed for estimating and mapping flood hazard probability along roads using road and catchment characteristics as physical catchment descriptors (PCDs). The method uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to derive candidate PCDs and then identifies those PCDs that significantly predict road flooding using a statistical modelling approach. The method thus allows flood hazards to be estimated and also provides insights into the relative roles of landscape characteristics in determining road-related flood hazards. The method was applied to an area in western Sweden where severe road flooding had occurred during an intense rain event as a case study to demonstrate its utility. The results suggest that for this case study area three categories of PCDs are useful for prediction of critical spots prone to flooding along roads: i) topography, ii) soil type, and iii) land use. The main drivers among the PCDs considered were a topographical wetness index, road density in the catchment, soil properties in the catchment (mainly the amount of gravel substrate) and local channel slope at the site of a road-stream intersection. These can be proposed as strong indicators for predicting the flood probability in ungauged river basins in this region, but some care is needed in generalising the case study results other potential factors are also likely to influence the flood hazard probability. Overall, the method proposed represents a straightforward and consistent way to estimate flooding hazards to inform both the planning of future roadways and the maintenance of existing roadways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Daily survival rate and habitat characteristics of nests of Wilson's Plover

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zinsser, Elizabeth; Sanders, Felicia J.; Gerard, Patrick D.; Jodice, Patrick G.R.

2017-01-01

We assessed habitat characteristics and measured daily survival rate of 72 nests of Charadrius wilsonia (Wilson's Plover) during 2012 and 2013 on South Island and Sand Island on the central coast of South Carolina. At both study areas, nest sites were located at slightly higher elevations (i.e., small platforms of sand) relative to randomly selected nearby unused sites, and nests at each study area also appeared to be situated to enhance crypsis and/or vigilance. Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests ranged from 0.969 to 0.988 among study sites and years, and the probability of nest survival ranged from 0.405 to 0.764. Flooding and predation were the most common causes of nest failure at both sites. At South Island, DSR was most strongly related to maximum tide height, which suggests that flooding and overwash may be common causes of nest loss for Wilson's Plovers at these study sites. The difference in model results between the 2 nearby study sites may be partially due to more-frequent flooding at Sand Island because of some underlying yet unmeasured physiographic feature. Remaining data gaps for the species include regional assessments of nest and chick survival and habitat requirements during chick rearing.

Estimation of the Relative Severity of Floods in Small Ungauged Catchments for Preliminary Observations on Flash Flood Preparedness: A Case Study in Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2012-01-01

An increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration has caused significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as many other parts of the World. Since such floods usually accompanied by rapid runoff and debris flow rise quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage, this study presents a new flash flood indexing methodology to promptly provide preliminary observations regarding emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters in small ungauged catchments. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observed data in the two selected small ungauged catchments. The relative flood severity factors quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs are standardized by the highest recorded maximum value, and then averaged to obtain the flash flood index only for flash flood events in each study catchment. It is expected that the regression equations between the proposed flash flood index and rainfall characteristics can provide the basis database of the preliminary information for forecasting the local flood severity in order to facilitate flash flood preparedness in small ungauged catchments. PMID:22690208

Design flood estimation in ungauged basins: probabilistic extension of the design-storm concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

Design flood estimation in ungauged basins is an important hydrological task, which is in engineering practice typically solved with the design storm concept. However, neglecting the uncertainty in the hydrological response of the catchment through the assumption of average-recurrence-interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff can lead to flawed design flood estimates. Additionally, selecting a single critical rainfall duration neglects the contribution of other rainfall durations on the probability of extreme flood events. In this study, the design flood problem is approached with concepts from structural reliability that enable a consistent treatment of multiple uncertainties in estimating the design flood. The uncertainty of key model parameters are represented probabilistically and the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used to compute the flood exceedance probability. As an important by-product, the FORM analysis provides the most likely parameter combination to lead to a flood with a certain exceedance probability; i.e. it enables one to find representative scenarios for e.g., a 100 year or a 1000 year flood. Possible different rainfall durations are incorporated by formulating the event of a given design flood as a series system. The method is directly applicable in practice, since for the description of the rainfall depth-duration characteristics, the same inputs as for the classical design storm methods are needed, which are commonly provided by meteorological services. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study of Trauchgauer Ach catchment in Bavaria, SCS Curve Number (CN) and Unit hydrograph models are used for modeling the hydrological process. The results indicate, in accordance with past experience, that the traditional design storm concept underestimates design floods.

Analysis of the variation of the 0°C isothermal altitude during rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeimetz, Fränz; Garcìa, Javier; Schaefli, Bettina; Schleiss, Anton J.

2016-04-01

In numerous countries of the world (USA, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland,…), the dam safety verifications for extreme floods are realized by referring to the so called Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), this PMF is determined based on the PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation). The PMF estimation is performed with a hydrological simulation model by routing the PMP. The PMP-PMF simulation is normally event based; therefore, if no further information is known, the simulation needs assumptions concerning the initial soil conditions such as saturation or snow cover. In addition, temperature series are also of interest for the PMP-PMF simulations. Temperature values can not only be deduced from temperature measurement but also using the temperature gradient method, the 0°C isothermal altitude can lead to temperature estimations on the ground. For practitioners, the usage of the isothermal altitude for referring to temperature is convenient and simpler because one value can give information over a large region under the assumption of a certain temperature gradient. The analysis of the evolution of the 0°C isothermal altitude during rainfall events is aimed here and based on meteorological soundings from the two sounding stations Payerne (CH) and Milan (I). Furthermore, hourly rainfall and temperature data are available from 110 pluviometers spread over the Swiss territory. The analysis of the evolution of the 0°C isothermal altitude is undertaken for different precipitation durations based on the meteorological measurements mentioned above. The results show that on average, the isothermal altitude tends to decrease during the rainfall events and that a correlation between the duration of the altitude loss and the duration of the rainfall exists. A significant difference in altitude loss is appearing when the soundings from Payerne and Milan are compared.

Fragility Analysis of Concrete Gravity Dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tekie, Paulos B.; Ellingwood, Bruce R.

2002-09-01

Concrete gravity dams are an important part ofthe nation's infrastructure. Many dams have been in service for over 50 years, during which time important advances in the methodologies for evaluation of natural phenomena hazards have caused the design-basis events to be revised upwards, in some cases significantly. Many existing dams fail to meet these revised safety criteria and structural rehabilitation to meet newly revised criteria may be costly and difficult. A probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) provides a rational safety assessment and decision-making tool managing the various sources of uncertainty that may impact dam performance. Fragility analysis, which depicts fl%e uncertainty in the safety margin above specified hazard levels, is a fundamental tool in a PSA. This study presents a methodology for developing fragilities of concrete gravity dams to assess their performance against hydrologic and seismic hazards. Models of varying degree of complexity and sophistication were considered and compared. The methodology is illustrated using the Bluestone Dam on the New River in West Virginia, which was designed in the late 1930's. The hydrologic fragilities showed that the Eluestone Dam is unlikely to become unstable at the revised probable maximum flood (PMF), but it is likely that there will be significant cracking at the heel ofthe dam. On the other hand, the seismic fragility analysis indicated that sliding is likely, if the dam were to be subjected to a maximum credible earthquake (MCE). Moreover, there will likely be tensile cracking at the neck of the dam at this level of seismic excitation. Probabilities of relatively severe limit states appear to be only marginally affected by extremely rare events (e.g. the PMF and MCE). Moreover, the risks posed by the extreme floods and earthquakes were not balanced for the Bluestone Dam, with seismic hazard posing a relatively higher risk.

Development of a methodology for probable maximum precipitation estimation over the American River watershed using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Elcin

A new physically-based methodology for probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation is developed over the American River Watershed (ARW) using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model. A persistent moisture flux convergence pattern, called Pineapple Express, is analyzed for 42 historical extreme precipitation events, and it is found that Pineapple Express causes extreme precipitation over the basin of interest. An average correlation between moisture flux convergence and maximum precipitation is estimated as 0.71 for 42 events. The performance of the WRF model is verified for precipitation by means of calibration and independent validation of the model. The calibration procedure is performed only for the first ranked flood event 1997 case, whereas the WRF model is validated for 42 historical cases. Three nested model domains are set up with horizontal resolutions of 27 km, 9 km, and 3 km over the basin of interest. As a result of Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests, the hypothesis that "the WRF model can be used in the determination of PMP over the ARW for both areal average and point estimates" is accepted at the 5% level of significance. The sensitivities of model physics options on precipitation are determined using 28 microphysics, atmospheric boundary layer, and cumulus parameterization schemes combinations. It is concluded that the best triplet option is Thompson microphysics, Grell 3D ensemble cumulus, and YSU boundary layer (TGY), based on 42 historical cases, and this TGY triplet is used for all analyses of this research. Four techniques are proposed to evaluate physically possible maximum precipitation using the WRF: 1. Perturbations of atmospheric conditions; 2. Shift in atmospheric conditions; 3. Replacement of atmospheric conditions among historical events; and 4. Thermodynamically possible worst-case scenario creation. Moreover, climate change effect on precipitation is discussed by emphasizing temperature increase in order to determine the physically possible upper limits of precipitation due to climate change. The simulation results indicate that the meridional shift in atmospheric conditions is the optimum method to determine maximum precipitation in consideration of cost and efficiency. Finally, exceedance probability analyses of the model results of 42 historical extreme precipitation events demonstrate that the 72-hr basin averaged probable maximum precipitation is 21.72 inches for the exceedance probability of 0.5 percent. On the other hand, the current operational PMP estimation for the American River Watershed is 28.57 inches as published in the hydrometeorological report no. 59 and a previous PMP value was 31.48 inches as published in the hydrometeorological report no. 36. According to the exceedance probability analyses of this proposed method, the exceedance probabilities of these two estimations correspond to 0.036 percent and 0.011 percent, respectively.

Predicting the impact of tsunami in California under rising sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dura, T.; Garner, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.

2017-12-01

The flood hazard for the California coast depends not only on the magnitude, location, and rupture length of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone earthquakes and their resultant tsunamis, but also on rising sea levels, which combine with tsunamis to produce overall flood levels. The magnitude of future sea-level rise remains uncertain even on the decadal scale, with future sea-level projections becoming even more uncertain at timeframes of a century or more. Earthquake statistics indicate that timeframes of ten thousand to one hundred thousand years are needed to capture rare, very large earthquakes. Because of the different timescales between reliable sea-level projections and earthquake distributions, simply combining the different probabilities in the context of a tsunami hazard assessment may be flawed. Here, we considered 15 earthquakes between Mw 8 to Mw 9.4 bound by -171oW and -140oW of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. We employed 24 realizations at each magnitude with random epicenter locations and different fault length-to-width ratios, and simulated the tsunami evolution from these 360 earthquakes at each decade from the years 2000 to 2200. These simulations were then carried out for different sea-level-rise projections to analyze the future flood hazard for California. Looking at the flood levels at tide gauges, we found that the flood level simulated at, for example, the year 2100 (including respective sea-level change) is different from the flood level calculated by adding the flood for the year 2000 to the sea-level change prediction for the year 2100. This is consistent for all sea-level rise scenarios, and this difference in flood levels range between 5% and 12% for the larger half of the given magnitude interval. Focusing on flood levels at the tide gauge in the Port of Los Angeles, the most probable flood level (including all earthquake magnitudes) in the year 2000 was 5 cm. Depending on the sea-level predictions, in the year 2050 the most probable flood levels could rise to 20 to 30 cm, but increase significantly from 2100 to 2200 to between 0.5 m and 2.5 m. Aside from the significant increase in flood level, it should be noted that the range over which potential most probable flood levels can vary is significant and defines a tremendous challenge for long-term planning of hazard mitigating measures.

Mapping the Historical Probability of Increased Flood Hazard During ENSO Events Using a New 20th Century River Flow Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerton, R.; Cloke, H. L.; Stephens, L.; Woolnough, S. J.; Zsoter, E.; Pappenberger, F.

2016-12-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a mode of variability which sees fluctuations between anomalously high or low sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, is known to influence river flow and flooding at the global scale. The anticipation and forecasting of floods is crucial for flood preparedness, and this link, alongside the predictive skill of ENSO up to seasons ahead, may provide an early indication of upcoming severe flood events. Information is readily available indicating the likely impacts of El Niño and La Niña on precipitation across the globe, which is often used as a proxy for flood hazard. However, the nonlinearity between precipitation and flood magnitude and frequency means that it is important to assess the impact of ENSO events not only on precipitation, but also on river flow and flooding. Historical probabilities provide key information regarding the likely impacts of ENSO events. We estimate, for the first time, the historical probability of increased flood hazard during El Niño and La Niña through a global hydrological analysis, using a new 20thCentury ensemble river flow reanalysis for the global river network. This dataset was produced by running the ECMWF ERA-20CM atmospheric reanalysis through a research set-up of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) using the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model, to produce a 110-year global reanalysis of river flow. We further evaluate the added benefit of the hydrological analysis over the use of precipitation as a proxy for flood hazard. For example, providing information regarding regions that are likely to experience a lagged influence on river flow compared to the influence on precipitation. Our results map, at the global scale, the probability of abnormally high river flow during any given month during an El Niño or La Niña; information such as this is key for organisations that work at the global scale, such as humanitarian aid organisations, providing a seasons-ahead indicator of potential increased flood hazard that can be used as soon as the event onset is declared, or even earlier, when El Niño or La Niña conditions are first predicted.

Rainfall frequency analysis for ungauged sites using satellite precipitation products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Hsu, Kuolin; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2017-11-01

The occurrence of extreme rainfall events and their impacts on hydrologic systems and society are critical considerations in the design and management of a large number of water resources projects. As precipitation records are often limited or unavailable at many sites, it is essential to develop better methods for regional estimation of extreme rainfall at these partially-gauged or ungauged sites. In this study, an innovative method for regional rainfall frequency analysis for ungauged sites is presented. The new method (hereafter, this is called the RRFA-S) is based on corrected annual maximum series obtained from a satellite precipitation product (e.g., PERSIANN-CDR). The probability matching method (PMM) is used here for bias correction to match the CDF of satellite-based precipitation data with the gauged data. The RRFA-S method was assessed through a comparative study with the traditional index flood method using the available annual maximum series of daily rainfall in two different regions in USA (11 sites in Colorado and 18 sites in California). The leave-one-out cross-validation technique was used to represent the ungauged site condition. Results of this numerical application have found that the quantile estimates obtained from the new approach are more accurate and more robust than those given by the traditional index flood method.

Flood-inundation maps for the West Branch Delaware River, Delhi, New York, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.; Breaker, Brian K.

2012-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 5-mile reach of the West Branch Delaware River through the Village and part of the Town of Delhi, New York, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Village of Delhi, the Delaware County Soil and Water Conservation District, and the Delaware County Planning Department. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ and the Federal Flood Inundation Mapper Web site at http://wim.usgs.gov/FIMI/FloodInundationMapper.html, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) referenced to the USGS streamgage at West Branch Delaware River upstream from Delhi, N.Y. (station number 01421900). In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model that had been used to produce the flood insurance rate maps for the most recent flood insurance study for the Town and Village of Delhi. This hydraulic model was used to compute 10 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 7 ft or near bankfull to 16 ft, which exceeds the stages that correspond to both the estimated 0.2-percent annual-exceedance-probability flood (500-year recurrence interval flood) and the maximum recorded peak flow. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system (GIS) digital elevation model, which was derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with a 1.2-ft (0.61-ft root mean squared error) vertical accuracy and 3.3-ft (1-meter) horizontal resolution, to delineate the area flooded at each water level. A map that was produced using this method to delineate the inundated area for the flood that occurred on August 28, 2011, agreed well with highwater marks that had been located in the field using a global positioning system. The availability of the 10 flood-inundation maps on the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Site Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates and Professional Judgement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, B. D.; Kao, S. C.; Kanney, J. F.; Quinlan, K. R.; DeNeale, S. T.

2015-12-01

State and federal regulatory authorities currently rely upon the US National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs) to determine probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates (i.e., rainfall depths and durations) for estimating flooding hazards for relatively broad regions in the US. PMP estimates for the contributing watersheds upstream of vulnerable facilities are used to estimate riverine flooding hazards while site-specific estimates for small water sheds are appropriate for individual facilities such as nuclear power plants. The HMRs are often criticized due to their limitations on basin size, questionable applicability in regions affected by orographic effects, their lack of consist methods, and generally by their age. HMR-51 for generalized PMP estimates for the United States east of the 105th meridian, was published in 1978 and is sometimes perceived as overly conservative. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is currently reviewing several flood hazard evaluation reports that rely on site specific PMP estimates that have been commercially developed. As such, NRC has recently investigated key areas of expert judgement via a generic audit and one in-depth site specific review as they relate to identifying and quantifying actual and potential storm moisture sources, determining storm transposition limits, and adjusting available moisture during storm transposition. Though much of the approach reviewed was considered a logical extension of HMRs, two key points of expert judgement stood out for further in-depth review. The first relates primarily to small storms and the use of a heuristic for storm representative dew point adjustment developed for the Electric Power Research Institute by North American Weather Consultants in 1993 in order to harmonize historic storms for which only 12 hour dew point data was available with more recent storms in a single database. The second issue relates to the use of climatological averages for spatially interpolating 100-year dew point values rather than a more gauge-based approach. Site specific reviews demonstrated that both issues had potential for lowering the PMP estimate significantly by affecting the in-place and transposed moisture maximization value and, in turn, the final controlling storm for a given basin size and PMP estimate.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyaupane, Narayan; Parajuli, Ranjan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most severe and costlier natural hazard in US. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The flood plain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural area in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on a HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows extreme increase in future design flood. The future design flood could be more than the historic 500yr flood. At the same time, the extent of flooding could go beyond the historic flood of 0.2% annual probability. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer and stake holders.

Analysis on flood generation processes by means of a continuous simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorentino, M.; Gioia, A.; Iacobellis, V.; Manfreda, S.

2006-03-01

In the present research, we exploited a continuous hydrological simulation to investigate on key variables responsible of flood peak formation. With this purpose, a distributed hydrological model (DREAM) is used in cascade with a rainfall generator (IRP-Iterated Random Pulse) to simulate a large number of extreme events providing insight into the main controls of flood generation mechanisms. Investigated variables are those used in theoretically derived probability distribution of floods based on the concept of partial contributing area (e.g. Iacobellis and Fiorentino, 2000). The continuous simulation model is used to investigate on the hydrological losses occurring during extreme events, the variability of the source area contributing to the flood peak and its lag-time. Results suggest interesting simplification for the theoretical probability distribution of floods according to the different climatic and geomorfologic environments. The study is applied to two basins located in Southern Italy with different climatic characteristics.

The end of trend-estimation for extreme floods under climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Karsten; Bernhardt, Matthias

2016-04-01

An increased risk of flood events is one of the major threats under future climate change conditions. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated trends in flood extreme occurences using historic long-term river discharge data as well as simulations from combined global/regional climate and hydrological models. Severe floods are relatively rare events and the robust estimation of their probability of occurrence requires long time series of data (6). Following a method outlined by the IPCC research community, trends in extreme floods are calculated based on the difference of discharge values exceeding e.g. a 100-year level (Q100) between two 30-year windows, which represents prevailing conditions in a reference and a future time period, respectively. Following this approach, we analysed multiple, synthetically derived 2,000-year trend-free, yearly maximum runoff data generated using three different extreme value distributions (EDV). The parameters were estimated from long term runoff data of four large European watersheds (Danube, Elbe, Rhine, Thames). Both, Q100-values estimated from 30-year moving windows, as well as the subsequently derived trends showed enormous variations with time: for example, estimating the Extreme Value (Gumbel) - distribution for the Danube data, trends of Q100 in the synthetic time-series range from -4,480 to 4,028 m³/s per 100 years (Q100 =10,071m³/s, for reference). Similar results were found when applying other extreme value distributions (Weibull, and log-Normal) to all of the watersheds considered. This variability or "background noise" of estimating trends in flood extremes makes it almost impossible to significantly distinguish any real trend in observed as well as modelled data when such an approach is applied. These uncertainties, even though known in principle are hardly addressed and discussed by the climate change impact community. Any decision making and flood risk management, including the dimensioning of flood protection measures, that is based on such studies might therefore be fundamentally flawed.

Synoptical situations and meteorological conditions associated to floods in the mouth of rivers in the European part of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveeva, Tatiana; Gushchina, Daria

2013-04-01

The synoptical situations associated to the various type of floods in the mouth of rivers in European part of Russia are described. The storm surges, water flows and ice-jams are considered for Baltic, Barents sea, White sea, Azov sea, Black sea and Caspian sea regions. It is shown that the specific types of flood may be associated to various synoptical situations. Therefore it is unlikely to introduce the classification of synoptical regimes resulting in specific type of floods. However for each zone under consideration and for each specific flood type it is possible to determine the potential predictors of inundation: i.e. meteorological parameters which are characteristics of all cases of specific flood. There are: • for storm surges - long term wind forcing resulting in seiches in the sea, strong wind speed (the threshold varies in dependence on region), the wind direction orthogonal to the flow of river and strong baric gradient; • for water flows - the abundant precipitation, usually associate with the intensive frontal zone, the sudden change of air temperature resulting in snow melting in spring time; • for ice-jams - the strong temperature gradient extended in north-south direction resulting in negative temperature in the river mouth and positive temperature in the other basin. The probability of occurrence of predictors mentioned above was estimated for modern climate and global warming conditions using the outputs of ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. It is shown that the occurrence of intensive frontal zone and rainfall in the South of Russia will increase (decrease) in summer (winter) under warmer climate conditions which may contribute to the increase of water flows in this region. Maximum of floods occurs during the warm period, we can conclude that global warming increases the risk of floods in Black Sea coast.

Late Holocene flood probabilities in the Black Hills, South Dakota with emphasis on the Medieval Climate Anomaly

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, James E.; Driscoll, Daniel G.

2015-01-01

A stratigraphic record of 35 large paleofloods and four large historical floods during the last 2000 years for four basins in the Black Hills of South Dakota reveals three long-term flooding episodes, identified using probability distributions, at A.D.: 120–395, 900–1290, and 1410 to present. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~ A.D. 900–1300) the four basins collectively experienced 13 large floods compared to nine large floods in the previous 800 years, including the largest floods of the last 2000 years for two of the four basins. This high concentration of extreme floods is likely caused by one or more of the following: 1) instability of air masses caused by stronger than normal westerlies; 2) larger or more frequent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean; and/or 3) reduced land covering vegetation or increased forest fires caused by persistent regional drought.

Dam failure analysis for the Lago de Matrullas Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torres-Sierra, Heriberto; Gómez-Fragoso, Julieta

2015-01-01

Results from the simulated dam failure of the Lago de Matrullas Dam using the HEC–RAS model for the 6- and 24-hour PMP events showed peak discharges at the dam of 3,149.33 and 3,604.70 m3/s, respectively. Dam failure during the 100-year-recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event resulted in a peak discharge of 2,103.12 m3/s directly downstream from the dam. Dam failure under sunny day conditions produced a peak discharge of 1,695.91 m3/s at the dam assuming the antecedent lake level was at the morning-glory spillway invert elevation. Flood-inundation maps prepared as part of the study depict the flood extent and provide valuable information for preparing an Emergency Action Plan. Results of the failure analysis indicate that a failure of the Lago de Matrullas Dam could cause flooding to many of the inhabited areas along stream banks from the Lago de Matrullas Dam to the mouth of the Río Grande de Manatí. Among the areas most affected are the low-lying regions in the vicinity of the towns of Ciales, Manatí, and Barceloneta. The delineation of the flood boundaries near the town of Barceloneta considered the effects of a levee constructed during 2000 at Barceloneta in the flood plain of the Río Grande de Manatí to provide protection against flooding to the near-by low-lying populated areas. The results showed overtopping can be expected in the aforementioned levee during 6- and 24-hour probable-maximum-precipitation dam failure scenarios. No overtopping of the levee was simulated, however, during dam failure scenarios under the 100-year recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event or sunny day conditions.

Estimating Paleoflood Magnitude From Tree-Ring Anatomy and the Height of Abrasion Scars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanosky, T. M.; Jarrett, R. D.

2003-12-01

Evidence of floods preserved in the growth rings of trees can be used to extend the historical record of flooding or to estimate the magnitude of extraordinary floods on ungaged streams. Floods that damage the aerial parts of trees during the growing season sometimes induce striking anatomical changes in subsequent growth of rings in the lower trunk. In ring-porous species, this growth most commonly produces concentric bands of atypically large vessels within the latewood. The number and diameter of anomalous vessels seem positively related to the amount of flood damage, and thus can be used to refine estimates of flood magnitude when also considering the position of the tree relative to the channel and its approximate height during the flood. Floods of long duration on low-gradient streams are less likely to damage trees directly, but prolonged root flooding often results in the formation of narrow rings with atypically small vessels; shorter-duration floods, sometimes inundating roots for as little as several days, are followed by the production of fibers (non-conducting cells) with large lumens and thin walls that appear as light-colored bands compared to earlier-formed tissue. In these instances, a series of trees increasingly distant from the channel can be used to estimate a minimum flood elevation. Abrasion scars from flood-borne debris often are the most easily observed evidence of flood damage and, like anatomical abnormalities, can be precisely dated. The relation between the heights of scars and maximum flood stages depends in part upon channel slope. Previous studies have indicated that scar heights along low-gradient streams are the same or slightly lower than maximum flood elevations. Along the high-gradient (6% maximum slope) Buffalo Creek, Colorado USA, scar heights measured in 102 trees following a flood in 1996 ranged from -0.6 to +1.5 m relative to the actual crest elevation. Scar elevations exceeding flood elevations by 3-4 m, however, were observed following a flood in 2002 along a small Colorado stream with slopes ranging from 6 to 15%.

Summary of floods in the United States during 1959

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hendricks, E.L.

1964-01-01

This report describes the most outstanding floods that occurred in the United States during 1959.The floods of January-February in Ohio and adjacent States were the most outstanding floods of the year 1959 with respect to area affected, number of streams having maximum discharge of record, rare occurrence of peaks, and great amount of damage caused.Floods in the Rock River basin in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during late March and early April produced maximum stages and discharges on many streams. The Rock River at Watertown, Wisc., was the highest in 40 years and Lake Mendota at Madison, Wisc., reached its maximum stage since 1916. Many towns were flooded and thousands of persons were forced from their homes.What is possibly the greatest 24-hour rainfall ever to be noted in Iowa fell August 5-6. The resulting floods inundated an 80-block area in Fort Madison, Iowa, and caused damage estimated at $600,000 in the city. A total of 130,000 acres of land was inundated.Major floods occurred in Texas in the upper Trinity, middle Brazos, middle Colorado, upper Guadalupe, and upper Nueces River basins in early October, following heavy general rains that covered most of Texas. The peak stage on North Bosque River near Clifton was the highest known since 1887. More than \\$1 million in damage was reported for Houston.In addition to the 4 floods mentioned above, 22 others of lesser magnitude are considered important enough to report in this annual summary.

Flood-prone area maps of three sites along the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamke, Robert D.; Jones, Stanley H.

1980-01-01

Flood-prone areas in Alaska are delineated on aerial photographs for the Sagavanirktok River near Pump Station 3, Middle Fork Koyukuk River at Coldfoot, and Jim River near Pump Station 5. An analysis of available flood data and a description of recent flood evidence and maximum evident flood marks are included. (Kosco-USGS)

ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.

2006-12-01

Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for the global application of an ENSO based index insurance product are discussed.

Insurance against climate change and flood risk: Insurability and decision processes of insurers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Hung, Jia-Yi

2016-04-01

1. Background Major portions of the Asia-Pacific region is facing escalating exposure and vulnerability to climate change and flood-related extremes. This highlights an arduous challenge for public agencies to improve existing risk management strategies. Conventionally, governmental funding was majorly responsible and accountable for disaster loss compensation in the developing countries in Asia, such as Taiwan. This is often criticized as an ineffective and inefficient measure of dealing with flood risk. Flood insurance is one option within the toolkit of risk-sharing arrangement and adaptation strategy to flood risk. However, there are numerous potential barriers for insurance companies to cover flood damage, which would cause the flood risk is regarded as uninsurable. This study thus aims to examine attitudes within the insurers about the viability of flood insurance, the decision-making processes of pricing flood insurance and their determinants, as well as to examine potential solutions to encourage flood insurance. 2. Methods and data Using expected-utility theory, an insurance agent-based decision-making model was developed to examine the insurers' attitudes towards the insurability of flood risk, and to scrutinize the factors that influence their decisions on flood insurance premium-setting. This model particularly focuses on how insurers price insurance when they face either uncertainty or ambiguity about the probability and loss of a particular flood event occurring. This study considers the factors that are expected to affect insures' decisions on underwriting and pricing insurance are their risk perception, attitudes towards flood insurance, governmental measures (e.g., land-use planning, building codes, risk communication), expected probabilities and losses of devastating flooding events, as well as insurance companies' attributes. To elicit insurers' utilities about premium-setting for insurance coverage, the 'certainty equivalent,' 'probability equivalent,' and 'gamble tradeoff' methods were used. We then synthesized a Tobit and an OLS regression analysis to identify and examine the determinants of insurers' decisions on insurability and pricing for flood risk. Furthermore, the data were collected through a questionnaire survey, which was conducted with the assistance from the Non-life Underwriters Society, Taiwan and the Actuarial Institute, Taiwan. After pretesting, questionnaires were mailed to 410 randomly chosen commercial property-and-casualty insurance firms' actuaries and underwriters. The final sample consisted of 179 questionnaires for a 43.8% response rate. 3. Results Results of the questionnaire survey reveal that flood risk tends to be more uninsurable when there is ambiguity regarding the probability of a particular flood event loss. The presence of insurers' risk aversion appears to be robust. Insurers would charge a significantly higher price for a flood insurance policy than normal property insurance. The findings also show that the insurers who perceived higher levels of flood risk, or/and had a company with smaller size or higher financial leverage, would trigger a higher premium for flood insurance. Governmental risk management strategies, such as land-use planning, building codes, flood-hazard zone regulations, also played a prominent role in enhancing insurability and decreasing insurance premium. Therefore, appropriate incentives should be combined with better public risk communication and mitigation strategies to stimulate insurance coverage in reducing flood loss.

Floods of May and June 2008 in Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buchmiller, Robert C.; Eash, David A.

2010-01-01

An unusually wet winter and spring of 2007 to 2008 resulted in extremely wet antecedent conditions throughout most of Iowa. Rainfall of 5 to 15 inches was observed in eastern Iowa during May 2008, and an additional 5 to 15 inches of rain was observed throughout most of Iowa in June. Because of the severity of the May and June 2008 flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with other Federal, State, and local agencies, has summarized the meteorological and hydrological conditions leading to the flooding, compiled flood-peak stages and discharges, and estimated revised flood probabilities for 62 selected streamgages. Record peak discharges or flood probabilities of 1 percent or smaller (100-year flooding or greater) occurred at more than 60 streamgage locations, particularly in eastern Iowa. Cedar Rapids, Decorah, Des Moines, Iowa City, Mason City, and Waterloo were among the larger urban areas affected by this flooding. High water and flooding in small, headwater streams in north-central and eastern Iowa, particularly in June, combined and accumulated in large, mainstem rivers and resulted in flooding of historic proportions in the Cedar and Iowa Rivers. Previous flood-peak discharges at many locations were exceeded by substantial amounts, in some cases nearly doubling the previous record peak discharge at locations where more than 100 years of streamflow record are available.

Effects of Climate Change on Flood Frequency in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Stumbaugh, M. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

A key concern about climate change as related to water resources is the potential for changes in hydrologic extremes, including flooding. We explore changes in flood frequency in the Pacific Northwest using downscaled output from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for historical forcings (1950-2005) and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2006-2100). We use archived output from the Integrated Scenarios Project (ISP) (http://maca.northwestknowledge.net/), which uses the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method for statistical downscaling. The MACA-downscaled GCM output was then used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a 1/16th degree spatial resolution and a daily time step. For each of the 238 HUC-08 areas within the Pacific Northwest (USGS Hydrologic Region 15), we computed, from the ISP archive, the series of maximum daily runoff values (surrogate for the annual maximum flood), and then the mean annual flood. Finally, we computed the ratios of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 mean annual floods to their corresponding values for the historical period. We evaluate spatial patterns in the results. For snow-dominated watersheds, the changes are dominated by reductions in flood frequency in basins that currently have spring-dominant floods, and increases in snow affected basins with fall-dominant floods. In low elevation basins west of the Cascades, changes in flooding are more directly related to changes in precipitation extremes. We further explore the nature of these effects by evaluating the mean Julian day of the annual maximum flood for each HUC-08 and how this changes between the historical and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Influence of model reduction on uncertainty of flood inundation predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanowicz, R. J.; Kiczko, A.; Osuch, M.

2012-04-01

Derivation of flood risk maps requires an estimation of the maximum inundation extent for a flood with an assumed probability of exceedence, e.g. a 100 or 500 year flood. The results of numerical simulations of flood wave propagation are used to overcome the lack of relevant observations. In practice, deterministic 1-D models are used for flow routing, giving a simplified image of a flood wave propagation process. The solution of a 1-D model depends on the simplifications to the model structure, the initial and boundary conditions and the estimates of model parameters which are usually identified using the inverse problem based on the available noisy observations. Therefore, there is a large uncertainty involved in the derivation of flood risk maps. In this study we examine the influence of model structure simplifications on estimates of flood extent for the urban river reach. As the study area we chose the Warsaw reach of the River Vistula, where nine bridges and several dikes are located. The aim of the study is to examine the influence of water structures on the derived model roughness parameters, with all the bridges and dikes taken into account, with a reduced number and without any water infrastructure. The results indicate that roughness parameter values of a 1-D HEC-RAS model can be adjusted for the reduction in model structure. However, the price we pay is the model robustness. Apart from a relatively simple question regarding reducing model structure, we also try to answer more fundamental questions regarding the relative importance of input, model structure simplification, parametric and rating curve uncertainty to the uncertainty of flood extent estimates. We apply pseudo-Bayesian methods of uncertainty estimation and Global Sensitivity Analysis as the main methodological tools. The results indicate that the uncertainties have a substantial influence on flood risk assessment. In the paper we present a simplified methodology allowing the influence of that uncertainty to be assessed. This work was supported by National Science Centre of Poland (grant 2011/01/B/ST10/06866).

High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolae Lerma, Alexandre; Bulteau, Thomas; Elineau, Sylvain; Paris, François; Durand, Paul; Anselme, Brice; Pedreros, Rodrigo

2018-01-01

A modelling chain was implemented in order to propose a realistic appraisal of the risk in coastal areas affected by overflowing as well as overtopping processes. Simulations are performed through a nested downscaling strategy from regional to local scale at high spatial resolution with explicit buildings, urban structures such as sea front walls and hydraulic structures liable to affect the propagation of water in urban areas. Validation of the model performance is based on hard and soft available data analysis and conversion of qualitative to quantitative information to reconstruct the area affected by flooding and the succession of events during two recent storms. Two joint probability approaches (joint exceedance contour and environmental contour) are used to define 100-year offshore conditions scenarios and to investigate the flood response to each scenario in terms of (1) maximum spatial extent of flooded areas, (2) volumes of water propagation inland and (3) water level in flooded areas. Scenarios of sea level rise are also considered in order to evaluate the potential hazard evolution. Our simulations show that for a maximising 100-year hazard scenario, for the municipality as a whole, 38 % of the affected zones are prone to overflow flooding and 62 % to flooding by propagation of overtopping water volume along the seafront. Results also reveal that for the two kinds of statistic scenarios a difference of about 5 % in the forcing conditions (water level, wave height and period) can produce significant differences in terms of flooding like +13.5 % of water volumes propagating inland or +11.3 % of affected surfaces. In some areas, flood response appears to be very sensitive to the chosen scenario with differences of 0.3 to 0.5 m in water level. The developed approach enables one to frame the 100-year hazard and to characterize spatially the robustness or the uncertainty over the results. Considering a 100-year scenario with mean sea level rise (0.6 m), hazard characteristics are dramatically changed with an evolution of the overtopping / overflowing process ratio and an increase of a factor 4.84 in volumes of water propagating inland and 3.47 in flooded surfaces.

Flood-inundation maps for the Flatrock River at Columbus, Indiana, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.

2013-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 5-mile reach of the Flatrock River on the western side of Columbus, Indiana, from County Road 400N to the river mouth at the confluence with Driftwood River, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ and the Federal Flood Inundation Mapper Web site at http://wim.usgs.gov/FIMI/FloodInundationMapper.html, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the Flatrock River at Columbus (station number 03363900). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the Internet from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, which also presents the USGS data, at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/. Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relation at the Flatrock River streamgage, high-water marks that were surveyed following the flood of June 7, 2008, and water-surface profiles from the current flood-insurance study for the City of Columbus. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 12 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 9 ft or near bankfull to 20 ft, which exceeds the stages that correspond to both the estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood (500-year recurrence interval flood) and the maximum recorded peak flow. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data having a 0.37 ft vertical accuracy and 3.9 ft horizontal resolution) to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps on the USGS Federal Flood Inundation Mapper Web site, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Evaluation of the Hydropower Generation Potential of a Dam Using Optimization Techniques: Application to Doma Dam, Nassarawa, in North Central Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salami, Adebayo Wahab; Sule, Bolaji Fatai; Adunkpe, Tope Lacroix; Ayanshola, Ayanniyi Mufutau; Bilewu, Solomon Olakunle

2017-03-01

Optimization models have been developed to maximize annual energy generation from the Doma dam, subject to the constraint of releases for irrigation, ecological purposes, the water supply, the maximum yield from the reservoir and reservoir storage. The model was solved with LINGO software for various mean annual inflow exceedence probabilities. Two scenarios of hydropower retrofitting were considered. Scenario 1, with the reservoir inflows at 50%, 75%, and 90% probabilities of exceedence, gives the total annual hydropower as 0.531 MW, 0.450 MW and 0.291 MW, respectively. The corresponding values for scenario 2 were 0.615 MW, 0.507 MW, and 0.346 MW respectively. The study also considered increasing the reservoir's live storage to 32.63Mm3 by taking part of the flood storage so that the maximum draft increases to 7 Mm3. With this upper limit of storage and draft with reservoir inflows of 50%, 75% and 90% probabilities of exceedence, the hydropower generated increased to 0.609 MW, 0.540 MW, and 0.347 MW respectively for the scenario 1 arrangement, while those of scenario 2 increased to 0.699 MW, 0.579MW and 0.406 MW respectively. The results indicate that the Doma Dam is suitable for the production of hydroelectric power and that its generation potential is between 0.61 MW and 0.70 MW.

Flood Summary Report, Nooksack, Skagit and Snohomish River Basins November 1990 Events

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-07-18

1990. Rivers throughout mid-western Washington flooded, with the Snohomish, Cedar, Skagit, and Wenatchee rivers reaching or exceeding their previous...which is equivalent to a 70-year event, and is the new maximum of record. The Wenatchee River at Peshastin crested at 17.6 feet on 25 November. Maximum...AD-A242 469 CNSE Seattle District D1JUY 91 FLOOD SUMMARY REPORT NOOKSACK, SKAGIT AND SNOHOMISH RIVER BASINS NOVEMBER 1990 EVENTS 11l1lfll9 114fd

Estimated Flood Discharges and Map of Flood-Inundated Areas for Omaha Creek, near Homer, Nebraska, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wilson, Richard C.; Strauch, Kellan R.

2008-01-01

Repeated flooding of Omaha Creek has caused damage in the Village of Homer. Long-term degradation and bridge scouring have changed substantially the channel characteristics of Omaha Creek. Flood-plain managers, planners, homeowners, and others rely on maps to identify areas at risk of being inundated. To identify areas at risk for inundation by a flood having a 1-percent annual probability, maps were created using topographic data and water-surface elevations resulting from hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. The hydrologic analysis for the Omaha Creek study area was performed using historical peak flows obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage (station number 06601000). Flood frequency and magnitude were estimated using the PEAKFQ Log-Pearson Type III analysis software. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, version 3.1.3, software was used to simulate the water-surface elevation for flood events. The calibrated model was used to compute streamflow-gage stages and inundation elevations for the discharges corresponding to floods of selected probabilities. Results of the hydrologic and hydraulic analyses indicated that flood inundation elevations are substantially lower than from a previous study.

Validation of individual and aggregate global flood hazard models for two major floods in Africa.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigg, M.; Bernhofen, M.; Whyman, C.

2017-12-01

A recent intercomparison of global flood hazard models undertaken by the Global Flood Partnership shows that there is an urgent requirement to undertake more validation of the models against flood observations. As part of the intercomparison, the aggregated model dataset resulting from the project was provided as open access data. We compare the individual and aggregated flood extent output from the six global models and test these against two major floods in the African Continent within the last decade, namely severe flooding on the Niger River in Nigeria in 2012, and on the Zambezi River in Mozambique in 2007. We test if aggregating different number and combination of models increases model fit to the observations compared with the individual model outputs. We present results that illustrate some of the challenges of comparing imperfect models with imperfect observations and also that of defining the probability of a real event in order to test standard model output probabilities. Finally, we propose a collective set of open access validation flood events, with associated observational data and descriptions that provide a standard set of tests across different climates and hydraulic conditions.

Predicting location-specific extreme coastal floods in the future climate by introducing a probabilistic method to calculate maximum elevation of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of water level variations and wind waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leijala, Ulpu; Björkqvist, Jan-Victor; Johansson, Milla M.; Pellikka, Havu

2017-04-01

Future coastal management continuously strives for more location-exact and precise methods to investigate possible extreme sea level events and to face flooding hazards in the most appropriate way. Evaluating future flooding risks by understanding the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level variations and wind waves is one of the means to make more comprehensive flooding hazard analysis, and may at first seem like a straightforward task to solve. Nevertheless, challenges and limitations such as availability of time series of the sea level and wave height components, the quality of data, significant locational variability of coastal wave height, as well as assumptions to be made depending on the study location, make the task more complicated. In this study, we present a statistical method for combining location-specific probability distributions of water level variations (including local sea level observations and global mean sea level rise) and wave run-up (based on wave buoy measurements). The goal of our method is to obtain a more accurate way to account for the waves when making flooding hazard analysis on the coast compared to the approach of adding a separate fixed wave action height on top of sea level -based flood risk estimates. As a result of our new method, we gain maximum elevation heights with different return periods of the continuous water mass caused by a combination of both phenomena, "the green water". We also introduce a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the properties and functioning of our method. The sensitivity test is based on using theoretical wave distributions representing different alternatives of wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with the sea level distribution, we get information on how the different wave height conditions and shape of the wave height distribution influence the joint results. Our method presented here can be used as an advanced tool to minimize over- and underestimation of the combined effect of sea level variations and wind waves, and to help coastal infrastructure planning and support smooth and safe operation of coastal cities in a changing climate.

Revision to flood hazard evaluation for the Savannah River Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buckley, R.; Werth, D.

Requirements for the Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) mitigation for new and existing Department of Energy (DOE) facilities are outlined in DOE Order 420.1. This report examines the hazards posed by potential flooding and represents an update to two previous reports. The facility-specific probabilistic flood hazard curve is defined as the water elevation for each annual probability of precipitation occurrence (or inversely, the return period in years). New design hyetographs for both 6-hr and 24-hr precipitation distributions were used in conjunction with hydrological models of various basins within the Savannah River Site (SRS). For numerous locations of interest, peak flow dischargemore » and flood water elevation were determined. In all cases, the probability of flooding of these facilities for a 100,000 year precipitation event is negligible.« less

Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

2007-12-01

Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

Simulations of cataclysmic outburst floods from Pleistocene Glacial Lake Missoula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Denlinger, Roger P.; O'Connell, D. R. H.

2009-01-01

Using a flow domain that we constructed from 30 m digital-elevation model data of western United States and Canada and a two-dimensional numerical model for shallow-water flow over rugged terrain, we simulated outburst floods from Pleistocene Glacial Lake Missoula. We modeled a large, but not the largest, flood, using initial lake elevation at 1250 m instead of 1285 m. Rupture of the ice dam, centered on modern Lake Pend Oreille, catastrophically floods eastern Washington and rapidly fills the broad Pasco, Yakima, and Umatilla Basins. Maximum flood stage is reached in Pasco and Yakima Basins 38 h after the dam break, whereas maximum flood stage in Umatilla Basin occurs 17 h later. Drainage of these basins through narrow Columbia gorge takes an additional 445 h. For this modeled flood, peak discharges in eastern Washington range from 10 to 20 × 106 m3/s. However, constrictions in Columbia gorge limit peak discharges to 6 m3/s and greatly extend the duration of flooding. We compare these model results with field observations of scabland distribution and high-water indicators. Our model predictions of the locations of maximum scour (product of bed shear stress and average flow velocity) match the distribution of existing scablands. We compare model peak stages to high-water indicators from the Rathdrum-Spokane valley, Walulla Gap, and along Columbia gorge. Though peak stages from this less-than-maximal flood model attain or exceed peak-stage indicators along Rathdrum-Spokane valley and along Columbia gorge, simulated peak stages near Walulla Gap are 10–40 m below observed peak-stage indicators. Despite this discrepancy, our match to field observations in most of the region indicates that additional sources of water other than Glacial Lake Missoula are not required to explain the Missoula floods.

Flood inundation maps and water-surface profiles for tropical storm Irene and selected annual exceedance probability floods for Flint Brook and the Third Branch White River in Roxbury, Vermont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.; Lombard, Pamela J.

2014-01-01

Flint Brook, a tributary to the Third Branch White River in Roxbury, Vermont, has a history of flooding the Vermont Fish and Wildlife Department’s Roxbury Fish Culture Station (the hatchery) and surrounding infrastructure. Flooding resulting from tropical storm Irene on August 28–29, 2011, caused widespread destruction in the region, including extensive and costly damages to the State-owned hatchery and the transportation infrastructure in the Town of Roxbury, Vermont. Sections of State Route 12A were washed out, and several bridges and culverts on Oxbow Road, Thurston Hill Road, and the New England Central Railroad in Roxbury were heavily damaged. Record high peak-discharge estimates of 2,140 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) and 4,320 ft3/s were calculated for Flint Brook at its confluence with the Third Branch White River and for the Third Branch White River at about 350 feet (ft) downstream from the hatchery, respectively. The annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of the peak discharges for Flint Brook and the Third Branch White River were less than 0.2 percent (less than a one in 500 chance of occurring in a given year). Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses of Flint Brook and the Third Branch White River were done to investigate flooding at the hatchery in Roxbury and support efforts by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to assist State and local mitigation and reconstruction efforts. During the August 2011 flood, the majority of flow from Flint Brook (97 percent or 2,070 ft3/s) diverged from its primary watercourse due to a retaining wall failure immediately upstream of Oxbow Road and inundated the hatchery. Although a minor amount of flow from the Third Branch White River could have overtopped State Route 12A and spilled into the hatchery, the Third Branch White River did not cause flood damages or exacerbate flooding at the hatchery during the August 2011 flood. The Third Branch White River which flows adjacent to the hatchery does not flood the hatchery for the 10-, 2-, 1, or 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. The simulated water-surface elevations for August 2011 flood equal the elevations of State Route 12A about 500 ft downstream of Thurston Hill Road adjacent to the troughs between the rearing ponds. Four flood mitigation alternatives being considered by the Vermont Agency of Transportation to improve the hydraulic performance of Flint Brook and reduce the risk of flooding at the hatchery include: (A) no changes to the infrastructure or existing alignment of Flint Brook (existing conditions [2014]), (B) structural changes to the bridges and the existing retaining wall along Flint Brook, (C) realignment of Flint Brook to flow along the south side of Oxbow Road to accommodate larger stream discharges, and (D) a diversion channel for flows greater than 1-percent annual exceedance probability. Although the 10-, 2-, and 1-percent AEP floods do not flood the hatchery under alternative A (no changes to the infrastructure), the 0.2-percent AEP flow still poses a flooding threat to the hatchery because flow will continue to overtop the existing retaining wall and flood the hatchery. Under the other mitigation alternatives (B, C, and D) that include some variation of structural changes to bridges, a retaining wall, and (or) channel, the peak discharges for the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities do not flood the hatchery. Water-surface profiles and flood inundation maps of the August 2011 flood and the 10-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEPs for four mitigation alternatives were developed for Flint Brook and the Third Branch White River in the vicinity of the hatchery and can be used by the Federal, State, and local agencies to better understand the potential for future flooding at the hatchery.

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

DOE PAGES

Buchanan, Maya K.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; ...

2016-06-03

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions ofmore » local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.« less

Sensitivity of outflow peaks and flood stages to the selection of dam breach parameters and simulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Krishan P.; Snorrason, Arni

1984-02-01

Important breach parameters were identified and their ranges were estimated from a detailed study of historical earthdam failures due to overtopping. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) and the National Weather Service (NWS) dam breach models were chosen for evaluation and simulation. Both models use similar input data and breach descriptions, but the HEC uses the hydrologic routing method (modified Puls method), whereas the NWS uses the St. Vénant equations for routing. Information on eight dams in Illinois was taken from the Corps of Engineers inspection reports, and surveyed cross-sections of the downstream channels were supplied by the Division of Water Resources of the Illinois Department of Transportation. Various combinations of breach parameters (failure time, TF; depth of overtopping, hf; and breach size, B) were used for breach simulations by both methods with the 1.00PMF, 0.50PMF and 0.25PMF (probable maximum flood) inflow hydrographs. In general, the flood stage profiles predicted by the NWS were smoother and more reasonable than those predicted by the HEC. For channels with relatively steep slopes, the methods compared fairly well, whereas for the channels with mild slope, the HEC model often predicted oscillating, erratic flood stages, mainly due to its inability to route flood waves satisfactorily in non-prismatic channels. The breach outflow peaks are affected significantly by B but less so by hf. The ratio of outflow peak to inflow peak and the effect of TF on outflow decrease as the drainage area above the dam and impounded storage increase. Flood stage profiles predicted with cross-sections taken from 7.5' maps compared favorably with those predicted using surveyed cross-sections. For the range of breach parameters studied, the range of outflow peaks and flood stages downstream from the dam can be determined for regulatory and disaster prevention measures.

Can we (actually) assess global risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2013-04-01

The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much needed in a rapidly changing world. This presentation will discuss these challenges and describe a few initial attempts aiming to better understand the interactions between the different components of flood risk with reference to diverse case studies in Europe, Central America, and Africa.

Frequency analyses for recent regional floods in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melcher, Nick B.; Martinez, Patsy G.; ,

1996-01-01

During 1993-95, significant floods that resulted in record-high river stages, loss of life, and significant property damage occurred in the United States. The floods were caused by unique global weather patterns that produced large amounts of rain over large areas. Standard methods for flood-frequency analyses may not adequately consider the probability of recurrence of these global weather patterns.

Peak Discharge, Flood Frequency, and Peak Stage of Floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 Near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-12-14

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at ...

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of 1-, 3-, 7-, 15-, and 30-day flood-duration flows in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression equations, which allow predictions of n-day flood-duration flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged sites, were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-duration flow frequency estimates at 56 streamgaging stations within a single, relatively uniform physiographic region in the central part of Arizona, between the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range Province, called the Transition Zone. Drainage area explained most of the variation in the n-day flood-duration annual exceedance probabilities, but mean annual precipitation and mean elevation were also significant variables in the regression models. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations varies from 28 to 53 percent and generally decreases with increasing n-day duration. Outside the Transition Zone there are insufficient streamgaging stations to develop regression equations, but flood-duration flow frequency estimates are presented at select streamgaging stations.

Geographical information system (GIS) application for flood prediction at Sungai Sembrong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamin, Masiri; Ahmad, Nor Farah Atiqah; Razali, Siti Nooraiin Mohd; Hilaham, Mashuda Mohamad; Rahman, Mohamad Abdul; Ngadiman, Norhayati; Sahat, Suhaila

2017-10-01

The occurrence of flood is one of natural disaster that often beset Malaysia. The latest incident that happened in 2007 was the worst occurrence of floods ever be set in Johor. Reporting floods mainly focused on rising water rising levels, so about once a focus on the area of flood delineation. A study focused on the effectiveness of using Geographic Information System (GIS) to predict the flood by taking Sg. Sembrong, Batu Pahat, Johor as study area. This study combined hydrological model and water balance model in the display to show the expected flood area for future reference. The minimum, maximum and average rainfall data for January 2007 at Sg Sembrong were used in this study. The data shows that flood does not occurs at the minimum and average rainfall of 17.2mm and 2mm respectively. At maximum rainfall, 203mm, shows the flood area was 9983 hectares with the highest level of the water depth was 2m. The result showed that the combination of hydrological models and water balance model in GIS is very suitable to be used as a tool to obtain preliminary information on flood immediately. Besides that, GIS system is a very powerful tool used in hydrology engineering to help the engineer and planner to imagine the real situation of flood events, doing flood analysis, problem solving and provide a rational, accurate and efficient decision making.

A coupled hydrological-hydraulic flood inundation model calibrated using post-event measurements and integrated uncertainty analysis in a poorly gauged Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Colin, Francois

2017-04-01

Developing flood inundation maps of defined exceedance probabilities is required to provide information on the flood hazard and the associated risk. A methodology has been developed to model flood inundation in poorly gauged basins, where reliable information on the hydrological characteristics of floods are uncertain and partially captured by the traditional rain-gauge networks. Flood inundation is performed through coupling a hydrological rainfall-runoff (RR) model (HEC-HMS) with a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS). The RR model is calibrated against the January 2013 flood event in the Awali River basin, Lebanon (300 km2), whose flood peak discharge was estimated by post-event measurements. The resulting flows of the RR model are defined as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model, which is run to generate the corresponding water surface profiles and calibrated against 20 post-event surveyed cross sections after the January-2013 flood event. An uncertainty analysis is performed to assess the results of the models. Consequently, the coupled flood inundation model is simulated with design storms and flood inundation maps are generated of defined exceedance probabilities. The peak discharges estimated by the simulated RR model were in close agreement with the results from different empirical and statistical methods. This methodology can be extended to other poorly gauged basins facing common stage-gauge failure or characterized by floods with a stage exceeding the gauge measurement level, or higher than that defined by the rating curve.

Composite Flood Risk for Virgin Island

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Composite Flood Risk layer combines flood hazard datasets from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood zones, NOAA's Shallow Coastal Flooding, and the National Hurricane Center SLOSH model for Storm Surge inundation for category 1, 2, and 3 hurricanes.Geographic areas are represented by a grid of 10 by 10 meter cells and each cell has a ranking based on variation in exposure to flooding hazards: Moderate, High and Extreme exposure. Geographic areas in each input layers are ranked based on their probability of flood risk exposure. The logic was such that areas exposed to flooding on a more frequent basis were given a higher ranking. Thus the ranking incorporates the probability of the area being flooded. For example, even though a Category 3 storm surge has higher flooding elevations, the likelihood of the occurrence is lower than a Category 1 storm surge and therefore the Category 3 flood area is given a lower exposure ranking. Extreme exposure areas are those areas that are exposed to relatively frequent flooding.The ranked input layers are then converted to a raster for the creation of the composite risk layer by using cell statistics in spatial analysis. The highest exposure ranking for a given cell in any of the three input layers is assigned to the corresponding cell in the composite layer.For example, if an area (a cell) is rank as medium in the FEMA layer, moderate in the SLOSH layer, but extreme in the SCF layer, the cell will be considere

Flooding in Illinois, April-June 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Avery, Charles; Smith, D.F.

2002-01-01

Widespread flooding occurred throughout most of Illinois in spring 2002 as a result of multiple intense rainstorms that moved through the State during an extended 2-month period from the third week in April through the month of May in central and southern Illinois, the first week in June in northern Illinois, and the second week in June in west-central Illinois. The scale of flooding was highly variable in time and intensity throughout the State. A Federal disaster was declared for central and southern Illinois to deal with the extensive damage incurred during the severe weather, and to provide emergency aid relief. Discharge and stage records for the flood periods described above are presented for 193 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Illinois and in drainages just upstream of the State. New maximum instantaneous discharge was recorded at 12 stations during this flood period, and new maximum stage was recorded at 15 stations. Flood stage was exceeded for at least 1 day during this 2-month period at 67 of the 82 stations with established flood-stage elevations given by the National Weather Service. Of the 162 streamflowgaging stations with an established flood-frequency distribution, a 5-year or greater flood discharge was recorded at 87 stations, and a 100-year or greater flood discharge occurred at six stations.

The Paleoflood Record of the Upper Colorado River near Moab, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenbaum, N.; Harden, T.; Baker, V. R.; Weisheit, J. S.; Cline, M. L.; Halevi, R.; Dohrenwend, J. C.

2011-12-01

The paleoflood record of the Upper Colorado River was reconstructed 17 km upstream of the town of Moab, Utah (drainage area about 62,470 km2) using paleostage indicaters. The 4.5 km long study reach is a bedrock canyon incised some 300-350 m into the sandstone of the Colorado Plateau with a general gradient of 0.0004. The largest floods documented at the Cisco gauging station (1914-2011) - 30 km upstream, is the historical 1884 flood - 3540 m3s-1, the 1917 flood - 2175 m3s-1 and the 1984 flood - 1990 m3s-1. The paleostage indicators in the form of slackwater deposits and driftwood lines at this site are up to 15 m above the summer water discharge of July 2005 (425 m3 s-1). The detailed paleoflood stratigraphy was performed using a series of 14 pits across the SWD relict with a depth of up to 2 m. Dating of the paleoflood deposits include 14 OSL ages and 4 radiocarbon ages of wooden debris and charcoal. The canyon and channel geometry was reconstructed using a field survey of 24 cross sections during 2005. In 2010 a complementary survey of the underwater channel geometry using a sonar was conducted. Water surface profiles, peak discharges and hydraulic analyses where preformed using HECRAS hydraulic program. The water surface profiles were calibrated using the observed water levels of the floods of 25-26.5.2005 - 1140 m3s-1 and the 25-26 June 2011 - 260 m3s-1. The results indicate evidence of about 40 floods that occurred during the last 2140 +/- 220 years. The flow regime for the high-magnitude floods is subcritical and the canyon is relatively narrow, therefore the peak discharges are very sensitive to Manning`s n roughness coefficient. Due to the very low gradient the discharge results are also sensitive to the initial boundary conditions downstream. The peak discharges range from about 1600 m3s-1 and up to between 8,500 and 10,500 m3s-1 depending on the Manning n. At least 2 floods in this record exceeded the conservative value (8500 m3s-1) which is higher than the probable maximum flood (8300 m3s-1) and 24 floods exceeded 3400 m3s-1 (the 500-year flood) calculated for the Moab Vally.

An application of extreme value theory to the management of a hydroelectric dam.

PubMed

Minkah, Richard

2016-01-01

Assessing the probability of very low or high water levels is an important issue in the management of hydroelectric dams. In the case of the Akosombo dam, very low and high water levels result in load shedding of electrical power and flooding in communities downstream respectively. In this paper, we use extreme value theory to estimate the probability and return period of very low water levels that can result in load shedding or a complete shutdown of the dam's operations. In addition, we assess the probability and return period of high water levels near the height of the dam and beyond. This provides a framework for a possible extension of the dam to sustain the generation of electrical power and reduce the frequency of spillage that causes flooding in communities downstream. The results show that an extension of the dam can reduce the probability and prolong the return period of a flood. In addition, we found a negligible probability of a complete shutdown of the dam due to inadequate water level.

Partial entrainment of gravel bars during floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.; Booth, Derek B.; Burges, Stephen J.; Montgomery, David R.

2002-01-01

Spatial patterns of bed material entrainment by floods were documented at seven gravel bars using arrays of metal washers (bed tags) placed in the streambed. The observed patterns were used to test a general stochastic model that bed material entrainment is a spatially independent, random process where the probability of entrainment is uniform over a gravel bar and a function of the peak dimensionless shear stress τ0* of the flood. The fraction of tags missing from a gravel bar during a flood, or partial entrainment, had an approximately normal distribution with respect to τ0* with a mean value (50% of the tags entrained) of 0.085 and standard deviation of 0.022 (root‐mean‐square error of 0.09). Variation in partial entrainment for a given τ0* demonstrated the effects of flow conditioning on bed strength, with lower values of partial entrainment after intermediate magnitude floods (0.065 < τ0*< 0.08) than after higher magnitude floods. Although the probability of bed material entrainment was approximately uniform over a gravel bar during individual floods and independent from flood to flood, regions of preferential stability and instability emerged at some bars over the course of a wet season. Deviations from spatially uniform and independent bed material entrainment were most pronounced for reaches with varied flow and in consecutive floods with small to intermediate magnitudes.

23 CFR 650.117 - Content of design studies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... BRIDGES, STRUCTURES, AND HYDRAULICS Location and Hydraulic Design of Encroachments on Flood Plains § 650... probability of exceedance and, at appropriate locations, the water surface elevations associated with the overtopping flood or the flood of § 650.115(a)(1)(ii), and (2) The magnitude and water surface elevation of...

23 CFR 650.117 - Content of design studies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... BRIDGES, STRUCTURES, AND HYDRAULICS Location and Hydraulic Design of Encroachments on Flood Plains § 650... probability of exceedance and, at appropriate locations, the water surface elevations associated with the overtopping flood or the flood of § 650.115(a)(1)(ii), and (2) The magnitude and water surface elevation of...

23 CFR 650.117 - Content of design studies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... BRIDGES, STRUCTURES, AND HYDRAULICS Location and Hydraulic Design of Encroachments on Flood Plains § 650... probability of exceedance and, at appropriate locations, the water surface elevations associated with the overtopping flood or the flood of § 650.115(a)(1)(ii), and (2) The magnitude and water surface elevation of...

23 CFR 650.117 - Content of design studies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... BRIDGES, STRUCTURES, AND HYDRAULICS Location and Hydraulic Design of Encroachments on Flood Plains § 650... probability of exceedance and, at appropriate locations, the water surface elevations associated with the overtopping flood or the flood of § 650.115(a)(1)(ii), and (2) The magnitude and water surface elevation of...

23 CFR 650.117 - Content of design studies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... BRIDGES, STRUCTURES, AND HYDRAULICS Location and Hydraulic Design of Encroachments on Flood Plains § 650... probability of exceedance and, at appropriate locations, the water surface elevations associated with the overtopping flood or the flood of § 650.115(a)(1)(ii), and (2) The magnitude and water surface elevation of...

Flood Damages- savings potential for Austrian municipalities and evidence of adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unterberger, C.

2016-12-01

Recent studies show that the number of extreme precipitation events has increased globally and will continue to do so in the future. These observations are particularly true for central, northern and north-eastern Europe. These changes in the patterns of extreme events have direct repercussions for policy makers. Rojas et al. (2013) find that until 2080, annual damages could increase by a factor of 17 (from €5,5 bn/year today to € 98 bn/year in 2080) in the event that no adaptation measures are taken. Steininger et al. (2015) find that climate and weather induced extreme events account for an annual current welfare loss of about € 1 billion in Austria. As a result, policy makers will need to understand the interaction between hazard, exposure and vulnerability, with the goal of achieving flood risk reduction. Needed is a better understanding of where exposure, vulnerability and eventually flood risk are highest, i.e. where to reduce risk first and which factors drive existing flood risk. This article analyzes direct flood losses as reported by 1153 Austrian municipalities between 2005 and 2013. To achieve comparability between flood damages and municipalities' ordinary spending, a "vulnerability threshold" is introduced suggesting that flood damages should be lower than 5% of municipalities' average annual ordinary spending. It is found that the probability that flood damages exceed this vulnerability threshold is 12%. To provide a reliable estimate for that exceedance probability the joint distribution of damages and spending is modelled by means of a copula approach. Based on the joint distribution, a Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to derive uncertainty ranges for the exceedance probability. To analyze the drivers of flood damages and the effect they have on municipalities' spending, two linear regression models are estimated. Hereby obtained results suggest that damages increase significantly for those municipalities located along the shores of the river Danube and decrease significantly for municipalities that experienced floods in the past- indicating successful adaptation. As for the relationship between flood damages and municipalities' spending, the regression results indicate that flood damages have a significant positive impact.

Hydrologic risk analysis in the Yangtze River basin through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Y. R.; Huang, W. W.; Huang, G. H.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, K.; Li, Z.

2016-02-01

In this study, a bivariate hydrologic risk framework is proposed through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas, leading to a coupled GMM-copula method. In the coupled GMM-Copula method, the marginal distributions of flood peak, volume and duration are quantified through Gaussian mixture models and the joint probability distributions of flood peak-volume, peak-duration and volume-duration are established through copulas. The bivariate hydrologic risk is then derived based on the joint return period of flood variable pairs. The proposed method is applied to the risk analysis for the Yichang station on the main stream of the Yangtze River, China. The results indicate that (i) the bivariate risk for flood peak-volume would keep constant for the flood volume less than 1.0 × 105 m3/s day, but present a significant decreasing trend for the flood volume larger than 1.7 × 105 m3/s day; and (ii) the bivariate risk for flood peak-duration would not change significantly for the flood duration less than 8 days, and then decrease significantly as duration value become larger. The probability density functions (pdfs) of the flood volume and duration conditional on flood peak can also be generated through the fitted copulas. The results indicate that the conditional pdfs of flood volume and duration follow bimodal distributions, with the occurrence frequency of the first vertex decreasing and the latter one increasing as the increase of flood peak. The obtained conclusions from the bivariate hydrologic analysis can provide decision support for flood control and mitigation.

SERVIR-Africa: Developing an Integrated Platform for Floods Disaster Management in Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macharia, Daniel; Korme, Tesfaye; Policelli, Fritz; Irwin, Dan; Adler, Bob; Hong, Yang

2010-01-01

SERVIR-Africa is an ambitious regional visualization and monitoring system that integrates remotely sensed data with predictive models and field-based data to monitor ecological processes and respond to natural disasters. It aims addressing societal benefits including floods and turning data into actionable information for decision-makers. Floods are exogenous disasters that affect many parts of Africa, probably second only to drought in terms of social-economic losses. This paper looks at SERVIR-Africa's approach to floods disaster management through establishment of an integrated platform, floods prediction models, post-event flood mapping and monitoring as well as flood maps dissemination in support of flood disaster management.

Floods of June 4 and 12, 1976, at Culbertson, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, M.V.

1978-01-01

Runoff from rainfall caused flooding in the town of Culbertson, Montana, on June 4 and 12, 1976. Flood damage was mostly to business and residential structures within Culberston. Two small drainage contributed the peak flows, which at one site exceeded 1,200 cubic feet per second per square mile of contributing area. Flow from the Missouri River tributary No 5 at Culbertson consisted of flow through a pipe-arch at the State Highway 16 crossing and flow that overtopped the right bank of the main channel. Maximum combined pipe-arch and bypass flow for the June 12 flood was 1,30030 cubic feet per second. Flow from Diamond Creek consisted of flow through a culvert at the U.S. Highway 2 crossing west of Culbertson and flow that overtopped a road. Maximum combined culvert and bypass flow for the June 4 flood was 1,320 cubic feet per second. Failure of small dam increased the flow volume of the flood.

Empirical estimation of the conditional probability of natech events within the United States.

PubMed

Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Aguirra, Gloria Andrea

2011-06-01

Natural disasters are the cause of a sizeable number of hazmat releases, referred to as "natechs." An enhanced understanding of natech probability, allowing for predictions of natech occurrence, is an important step in determining how industry and government should mitigate natech risk. This study quantifies the conditional probabilities of natechs at TRI/RMP and SICS 1311 facilities given the occurrence of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods. During hurricanes, a higher probability of releases was observed due to storm surge (7.3 releases per 100 TRI/RMP facilities exposed vs. 6.2 for SIC 1311) compared to category 1-2 hurricane winds (5.6 TRI, 2.6 SIC 1311). Logistic regression confirms the statistical significance of the greater propensity for releases at RMP/TRI facilities, and during some hurricanes, when controlling for hazard zone. The probability of natechs at TRI/RMP facilities during earthquakes increased from 0.1 releases per 100 facilities at MMI V to 21.4 at MMI IX. The probability of a natech at TRI/RMP facilities within 25 miles of a tornado was small (∼0.025 per 100 facilities), reflecting the limited area directly affected by tornadoes. Areas inundated during flood events had a probability of 1.1 releases per 100 facilities but demonstrated widely varying natech occurrence during individual events, indicating that factors not quantified in this study such as flood depth and speed are important for predicting flood natechs. These results can inform natech risk analysis, aid government agencies responsible for planning response and remediation after natural disasters, and should be useful in raising awareness of natech risk within industry. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mapping hurricane rita inland storm tide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, C.; Mason, R.R.; Blanchard, S.F.

2009-01-01

Flood-inundation data are most useful for decision makers when presented in the context of maps of affected communities and (or) areas. But because the data are scarce and rarely cover the full extent of the flooding, interpolation and extrapolation of the information are needed. Many geographic information systems provide various interpolation tools, but these tools often ignore the effects of the topographic and hydraulic features that influence flooding. A barrier mapping method was developed to improve maps of storm tide produced by Hurricane Rita. Maps were developed for the maximum storm tide and at 3-h intervals from midnight (00:00 hours) through noon (12:00 hours) on 24 September 2005. The improved maps depict storm-tide elevations and the extent of flooding. The extent of storm-tide inundation from the improved maximum storm-tide map was compared with the extent of flood inundation from a map prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The boundaries from these two maps generally compared quite well especially along the Calcasieu River. Also a cross-section profile that parallels the Louisiana coast was developed from the maximum storm-tide map and included FEMA high-water marks. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Mapping Hurricane Rita inland storm tide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, Charles; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Blanchard, Stephen F.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

2009-01-01

Flood-inundation data are most useful for decision makers when presented in the context of maps of effected communities and (or) areas. But because the data are scarce and rarely cover the full extent of the flooding, interpolation and extrapolation of the information are needed. Many geographic information systems (GIS) provide various interpolation tools, but these tools often ignore the effects of the topographic and hydraulic features that influence flooding. A barrier mapping method was developed to improve maps of storm tide produced by Hurricane Rita. Maps were developed for the maximum storm tide and at 3-hour intervals from midnight (0000 hour) through noon (1200 hour) on September 24, 2005. The improved maps depict storm-tide elevations and the extent of flooding. The extent of storm-tide inundation from the improved maximum storm-tide map was compared to the extent of flood-inundation from a map prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The boundaries from these two maps generally compared quite well especially along the Calcasieu River. Also a cross-section profile that parallels the Louisiana coast was developed from the maximum storm-tide map and included FEMA high-water marks.

High-resolution urban flood modelling - a joint probability approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartnett, Michael; Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen

2017-04-01

The hydrodynamic modelling of rapid flood events due to extreme climatic events in urban environment is both a complex and challenging task. The horizontal resolution necessary to resolve complexity of urban flood dynamics is a critical issue; the presence of obstacles of varying shapes and length scales, gaps between buildings and the complex geometry of the city such as slopes affect flow paths and flood levels magnitudes. These small scale processes require a high resolution grid to be modelled accurately (2m or less, Olbert et al., 2015; Hunter et al., 2008; Brown et al., 2007) and, therefore, altimetry data of at least the same resolution. Along with availability of high-resolution LiDAR data and computational capabilities, as well as state of the art nested modelling approaches, these problems can now be overcome. Flooding and drying, domain definition, frictional resistance and boundary descriptions are all important issues to be addressed when modelling urban flooding. In recent years, the number of urban flood models dramatically increased giving a good insight into various modelling problems and solutions (Mark et al., 2004; Mason et al., 2007; Fewtrell et al., 2008; Shubert et al., 2008). Despite extensive modelling work conducted for fluvial (e.g. Mignot et al., 2006; Hunter et al., 2008; Yu and Lane, 2006) and coastal mechanisms of flooding (e.g. Gallien et al., 2011; Yang et al., 2012), the amount of investigations into combined coastal-fluvial flooding is still very limited (e.g. Orton et al., 2012; Lian et al., 2013). This is surprising giving the extent of flood consequences when both mechanisms occur simultaneously, which usually happens when they are driven by one process such as a storm. The reason for that could be the fact that the likelihood of joint event is much smaller than those of any of the two contributors occurring individually, because for fast moving storms the rainfall-driven fluvial flood arrives usually later than the storm surge (Divoky et al., 2005). Nevertheless, such events occur and in Ireland alone there are several cases of serious damage due to flooding resulting from a combination of high sea water levels and river flows driven by the same meteorological conditions (e.g. Olbert et al. 2015). A November 2009 fluvial-coastal flooding of Cork City bringing €100m loss was one such incident. This event was used by Olbert et al. (2015) to determine processes controlling urban flooding and is further explored in this study to elaborate on coastal and fluvial flood mechanisms and their roles in controlling water levels. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to assess combined effect of multiple source flooding on flood probability and severity in urban areas and to establish a set of conditions that dictate urban flooding due to extreme climatic events. These conditions broadly combine physical flood drivers (such as coastal and fluvial processes), their mechanisms and thresholds defining flood severity. The two main physical processes controlling urban flooding: high sea water levels (coastal flooding) and high river flows (fluvial flooding), and their threshold values for which flood is likely to occur, are considered in this study. Contribution of coastal and fluvial drivers to flooding and their impacts are assessed in a two-step process. The first step involves frequency analysis and extreme value statistical modelling of storm surges, tides and river flows and ultimately the application of joint probability method to estimate joint exceedence return periods for combination of surges, tide and river flows. In the second step, a numerical model of Cork Harbour MSN_Flood comprising a cascade of four nested high-resolution models is used to perform simulation of flood inundation under numerous hypothetical coastal and fluvial flood scenarios. The risk of flooding is quantified based on a range of physical aspects such as the extent and depth of inundation (Apel et al., 2008) The methodology includes estimates of flood probabilities due to coastal- and fluvial-driven processes occurring individually or jointly, mechanisms of flooding and their impacts on urban environment. Various flood scenarios are examined in order to demonstrate that this methodology is necessary to quantify the important physical processes in coastal flood predictions. Cork City, located on the south of Ireland subject to frequent coastal-fluvial flooding, is used as a study case.

Flood-frequency characteristics of Wisconsin streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Peppler, Marie C.; Danz, Mari E.; Hubbard, Laura E.

2017-05-22

Flood-frequency characteristics for 360 gaged sites on unregulated rural streams in Wisconsin are presented for percent annual exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.2 to 50 using a statewide skewness map developed for this report. Equations of the relations between flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics were developed by multiple-regression analyses. Flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites on unregulated, rural streams can be estimated by use of the equations presented in this report. The State was divided into eight areas of similar physiographic characteristics. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, main-channel slope, and several land-use variables. The standard error of prediction for the equation for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood ranges from 56 to 70 percent for Wisconsin Streams; these values are larger than results presented in previous reports. The increase in the standard error of prediction is likely due to increased variability of the annual-peak discharges, resulting in increased variability in the magnitude of flood peaks at higher frequencies. For each of the unregulated rural streamflow-gaging stations, a weighted estimate based on the at-site log Pearson type III analysis and the multiple regression results was determined. The weighted estimate generally has a lower uncertainty than either the Log Pearson type III or multiple regression estimates. For regulated streams, a graphical method for estimating flood-frequency characteristics was developed from the relations of discharge and drainage area for selected annual exceedance probabilities. Graphs for the major regulated streams in Wisconsin are presented in the report.

Re-assessing the flood risk in Scotland.

PubMed

Black, Andrew R; Burns, John C

2002-07-22

This paper presents a review of changes in flood risk estimation on Scottish rivers resulting from re-analysis of flood records or from the application of new methods. The review arises at a time when flood damages have received recent prominence through the occurrence of a number of extreme floods in Scotland, and when the possible impacts of climate change on flood risk are receiving considerable attention. An analysis of the nine longest available peaks-over-threshold (POT) flood series for Scottish rivers reveals that, for thresholds yielding two events per year on average, annual POT frequencies on western rivers have increased in the 1980s/1990s to maximum recorded values, while in the east, values were highest in the 1950s/1960s. These results support the results of flood modelling work based on rainfall and temperature records from the 1870s, which indicate that, in western catchments, annual POT frequencies in the 1980s/1990s are unprecedented. No general trends in flood magnitude series were found, but an unexpected cluster of extreme floods is identified as having occurred since 1988, resulting in eight of Scotland's 16 largest gauged rivers producing their maximum recorded flows since then. These shifts are related to recent increases in the dominance of westerly airflows, share similarities with the results of climate change modelling, and collectively point to increases in flood risk in many parts of Scotland. The paper also reviews advances in flood risk estimation arising from the publication of the UK Flood Estimation Handbook, developments in the collection and use of historic flood estimation and the production of maps of 100-year flood areal extent. Finally the challenges in flood risk estimation posed by climate change are examined, particularly in relation to the assumption of stationarity.

Analysis of flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2007-01-01

The Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania experienced severe flooding as a result of intense rainfall during June 2006. The height of the flood waters on the rivers and tributaries approached or exceeded the peak of record at many locations. Updated flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations on tributaries in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins were analyzed using data through the 2006 water year to determine if there were any major differences in the flood-discharge data. Flood frequencies for return intervals of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500 years (Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, Q100, and Q500) were determined from annual maximum series (AMS) data from continuous-record gaging stations (stations) and were compared to flood discharges obtained from previously published Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) and to flood frequencies using partial-duration series (PDS) data. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to determine any statistically significant differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS. Percentage differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS also were determined for the 10, 50, 100, and 500 return intervals. A Mann-Kendall trend test was performed to determine statistically significant trends in the updated AMS peak-flow data for the period of record at the 41 stations. In addition to AMS station data, PDS data were used to determine flood-frequency discharges. The AMS and PDS flood-frequency data were compared to determine any differences between the two data sets. An analysis also was performed on AMS-derived flood frequencies for four stations to evaluate the possible effects of flood-control reservoirs on peak flows. Additionally, flood frequencies for three stations were evaluated to determine possible effects of urbanization on peak flows. The results of the Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed a significant difference at the 95-percent confidence level between the Q100 computed from AMS station data and the Q100 determined from previously published FIS for 97 sites. The flood-frequency discharges computed from AMS station data were consistently larger than the flood discharges from the FIS; mean percentage difference between the two data sets ranged from 14 percent for the Q100 to 20 percent for the Q50. The results of the Mann-Kendall test showed that 8 stations exhibited a positive trend (i.e., increasing annual maximum peaks over time) over their respective periods of record at the 95-percent confidence level, and an additional 7 stations indicated a positive trend, for a total of 15 stations, at a confidence level of greater than or equal to 90 percent. The Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, and Q100 determined from AMS and PDS data for each station were compared by percentage. The flood magnitudes for the 2-year return period were 16 percent higher when partial-duration peaks were incorporated into the analyses, as opposed to using only the annual maximum peaks. The discharges then tended to converge around the 5-year return period, with a mean collective difference of only 1 percent. At the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods, the flood magnitudes based on annual maximum peaks were, on average, 6 percent higher compared to corresponding flood magnitudes based on partial-duration peaks. Possible effects on flood peaks from flood-control reservoirs and urban development within the basin also were examined. Annual maximum peak-flow data from four stations were divided into pre- and post-regulation periods. Comparisons were made between the Q100 determined from AMS station data for the periods of record pre- and post-regulation. Two stations showed a nearly 60- and 20-percent reduction in the 100-year discharges; the other two stations showed negligible differences in discharges. Three stations within urban basins were compared to 38 stations

Understanding Flood Seasonality and Its Temporal Shifts within the Contiguous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Sheng; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, L. Ruby

2017-07-01

Understanding the causes of flood seasonality is critical for better flood management. This study examines the seasonality of annual maximum floods (AMF) and its changes before and after 1980 at over 250 natural catchments across the contiguous United States. Using circular statistics to define a seasonality index, our analysis focuses on the variability of the flood occurrence date. Generally, catchments with more synchronized seasonal water and energy cycles largely inherit their seasonality of AMF from that of annual maximum rainfall (AMR). In contrast, the seasonality of AMF in catchments with loosely synchronized water and energy cycles are more influenced bymore » high antecedent storage, which is responsible for the amplification of the seasonality of AMF over that of AMR. This understanding then effectively explains a statistically significant shift of flood seasonality detected in some catchments in the recent decades. Catchments where the antecedent soil water storage has increased since 1980 exhibit increasing flood seasonality while catchments that have experienced increases in storm rainfall before the floods have shifted towards floods occurring more variably across the seasons. In the eastern catchments, a concurrent widespread increase in event rainfall magnitude and reduced soil water storage have led to a more variable timing of floods. Our findings of the role of antecedent storage and event rainfall on the flood seasonality provide useful insights for understanding future changes in flood seasonality as climate models projected changes in extreme precipitation and aridity over land.« less

Stochastic characteristics of different duration annual maximum rainfall and its spatial difference in China based on information entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Sang, Y. F.

2017-12-01

Mountain torrents, urban floods and other disasters caused by extreme precipitation bring great losses to the ecological environment, social and economic development, people's lives and property security. So there is of great significance to floods prevention and control by the study of its spatial distribution. Based on the annual maximum rainfall data of 60min, 6h and 24h, the paper generate long sequences following Pearson-III distribution, and then use the information entropy index to study the spatial distribution and difference of different duration. The results show that the information entropy value of annual maximum rainfall in the south region is greater than that in the north region, indicating more obvious stochastic characteristics of annual maximum rainfall in the latter. However, the spatial distribution of stochastic characteristics is different in different duration. For example, stochastic characteristics of 60min annual maximum rainfall in the Eastern Tibet is smaller than surrounding, but 6h and 24h annual maximum rainfall is larger than surrounding area. In the Haihe River Basin and the Huaihe River Basin, the stochastic characteristics of the 60min annual maximum rainfall was not significantly different from that in the surrounding area, and stochastic characteristics of 6h and 24h was smaller than that in the surrounding area. We conclude that the spatial distribution of information entropy values of annual maximum rainfall in different duration can reflect the spatial distribution of its stochastic characteristics, thus the results can be an importantly scientific basis for the flood prevention and control, agriculture, economic-social developments and urban flood control and waterlogging.

Characterising Record Flooding in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, A.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, J. A.

2017-12-01

Though the most notable floods in history have been carefully explained, there remains a lack of literature that explores the nature of record floods as a whole in the United Kingdom. We characterise the seasonality, statistical and spatial distribution, and meteorological causes of peak river flows for 521 gauging stations spread across the British Isles. We use annual maximum data from the National River Flow Archive, catchment descriptors from the Flood Estimation Handbook, and historical records of large floods. What we aim to find is in what ways, if any, the record flood for a station is different from more 'typical' floods. For each station, we calculate two indices: the seasonal anomaly and the flood index. Broadly, the seasonal anomaly is the degree to which a station's record flood happens at a different time of year compared to typical floods at that site, whilst the flood index is a station's record flood discharge divided by the discharge of the 1-in-10-year return period event. We find that while annual maximum peaks are dominated by winter frontal rainfall, record floods are disproportionately caused by summer convective rainfall. This analysis also shows that the larger the seasonal anomaly, the higher the flood index. Additionally, stations across the country have record floods that occur in the summer with no notable spatial pattern, yet the most seasonally anomalous record events are concentrated around the south and west of the British Isles. Catchment descriptors tell us little about the flood index at a particular station, but generally areas with lower mean annual precipitation have a higher flood index. The inclusion of case studies from recent and historical examples of notable floods across the UK supplements our analysis and gives insight into how typical these events are, both statistically and meteorologically. Ultimately, record floods in general happen at relatively unexpected times and with unpredictable magnitudes, which is a worrying reality for those who live in flood-prone areas, and to those who study the upper tail of flood events.

Impacts of climate change on current methodologies for flood risk analysis: Watershed-scale analyses using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, P.; Griffis, V. W.; LaFond, K.

2013-12-01

A changing climate brings about new challenges for flood risk analysis and water resources planning and management. Current methods for estimating flood risk in the US involve fitting the Pearson Type III (P3) probability distribution to the logarithms of the annual maximum flood (AMF) series using the method of moments. These methods are employed under the premise of stationarity, which assumes that the fitted distribution is time invariant and variables affecting stream flow such as climate do not fluctuate. However, climate change would bring about shifts in meteorological forcings which can alter the summary statistics (mean, variance, skew) of flood series used for P3 parameter estimation, resulting in erroneous flood risk projections. To ascertain the degree to which future risk may be misrepresented by current techniques, we use climate scenarios generated from global climate models (GCMs) as input to a hydrological model to explore how relative changes to current climate affect flood response for watersheds in the northeastern United States. The watersheds were calibrated and run on a daily time step using the continuous, semi-distributed, process based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), RMSE to Standard Deviation ratio (RSR) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) were all used to assess model performance. Eight climate scenarios were chosen from GCM output based on relative precipitation and temperature changes from the current climate of the watershed and then further bias-corrected. Four of the scenarios were selected to represent warm-wet, warm-dry, cool-wet and cool-dry future climates, and the other four were chosen to represent more extreme, albeit possible, changes in precipitation and temperature. We quantify changes in response by comparing the differences in total mass balance and summary statistics of the logarithms of the AMF series from historical baseline values. We then compare forecasts of flood quantiles from fitting a P3 distribution to the logs of historical AMF data to that of generated AMF series.

Psychosocial impact of the summer 2007 floods in England

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The summer of 2007 was the wettest in the UK since records began in 1914 and resulted in severe flooding in several regions. We carried out a health impact assessment using population-based surveys to assess the prevalence of and risk factors for the psychosocial consequences of this flooding in the United Kingdom. Methods Surveys were conducted in two regions using postal, online, telephone questionnaires and face-to-face interviews. Exposure variables included the presence of flood water in the home, evacuation and disruption to essential services (incident management variables), perceived impact of the floods on finances, house values and perceived health concerns. Validated tools were used to assess psychosocial outcome (mental health symptoms): psychological distress (GHQ-12), anxiety (GAD-7), depression (PHQ-9) and probable post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD checklist-shortform). Multivariable logistic regression was used to describe the association between water level in the home, psychological exposure variables and incident management variables, and each mental health symptom, adjusted for age, sex, presence of an existing medical condition, employment status, area and data collection method. Results The prevalence of all mental health symptoms was two to five-fold higher among individuals affected by flood water in the home. People who perceived negative impact on finances were more likely to report psychological distress (OR 2.5, 1.8-3.4), probable anxiety (OR 1.8, 1.3-2.7) probable depression (OR 2.0, 1.3-2.9) and probable PTSD (OR 3.2, 2.0-5.2). Disruption to essential services increased adverse psychological outcomes by two to three-fold. Evacuation was associated with some increase in psychological distress but not significantly for the other three measures. Conclusion The psychosocial and mental health impact of flooding is a growing public health concern and improved strategies for minimising disruption to essential services and financial worries need to be built in to emergency preparedness and response systems. Public Health Agencies should address the underlying predictors of adverse psychosocial and mental health when providing information and advice to people who are or are likely to be affected by flooding. PMID:21371296

Flood probability quantification for road infrastructure: Data-driven spatial-statistical approach and case study applications.

PubMed

Kalantari, Zahra; Cavalli, Marco; Cantone, Carolina; Crema, Stefano; Destouni, Georgia

2017-03-01

Climate-driven increase in the frequency of extreme hydrological events is expected to impose greater strain on the built environment and major transport infrastructure, such as roads and railways. This study develops a data-driven spatial-statistical approach to quantifying and mapping the probability of flooding at critical road-stream intersection locations, where water flow and sediment transport may accumulate and cause serious road damage. The approach is based on novel integration of key watershed and road characteristics, including also measures of sediment connectivity. The approach is concretely applied to and quantified for two specific study case examples in southwest Sweden, with documented road flooding effects of recorded extreme rainfall. The novel contributions of this study in combining a sediment connectivity account with that of soil type, land use, spatial precipitation-runoff variability and road drainage in catchments, and in extending the connectivity measure use for different types of catchments, improve the accuracy of model results for road flood probability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England.

PubMed

Muir Wood, Robert; Drayton, Michael; Berger, Agnete; Burgess, Paul; Wright, Tom

2005-06-15

Probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling techniques, comprising a large stochastic set of potential storm-surge flood events, each assigned an annual rate of occurrence, have been employed for quantifying risk in the coastal flood plain of eastern England. Based on the tracks of the causative extratropical cyclones, historical storm-surge events are categorized into three classes, with distinct windfields and surge geographies. Extreme combinations of "tide with surge" are then generated for an extreme value distribution developed for each class. Fragility curves are used to determine the probability and magnitude of breaching relative to water levels and wave action for each section of sea defence. Based on the time-history of water levels in the surge, and the simulated configuration of breaching, flow is time-stepped through the defences and propagated into the flood plain using a 50 m horizontal-resolution digital elevation model. Based on the values and locations of the building stock in the flood plain, losses are calculated using vulnerability functions linking flood depth and flood velocity to measures of property loss. The outputs from this model for a UK insurance industry portfolio include "loss exceedence probabilities" as well as "average annualized losses", which can be employed for calculating coastal flood risk premiums in each postcode.

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over mountainous region of Cameron Highlands- Batang Padang Catchment of Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidek, L. M.; Mohd Nor, M. D.; Rakhecha, P. R.; Basri, H.; Jayothisa, W.; Muda, R. S.; Ahmad, M. N.; Razad, A. Z. Abdul

2013-06-01

The Cameron Highland Batang Padang (CHBP) catchment situated on the main mountain range of Peninsular Malaysia is of large economical importance where currently a series of three dams (Sultan Abu Bakar, Jor and Mahang) exist in the development of water resources and hydropower. The prediction of the design storm rainfall values for different return periods including PMP values can be useful to review the adequacy of the current spillway capacities of these dams. In this paper estimates of the design storm rainfalls for various return periods and also the PMP values for rainfall stations in the CHBP catchment have been computed for the three different durations of 1, 3 & 5 days. The maximum values for 1 day, 3 days and 5 days PMP values are found to be 730.08mm, 966.17mm and 969.0mm respectively at Station number 4513033 Gunung Brinchang. The PMP values obtained were compared with previous study results undertaken by NAHRIM. However, the highest ratio of 1 day, 3 day and 5 day PMP to highest observed rainfall are found to be 2.30, 1.94 and 1.82 respectively. This shows that the ratio tend to decrease as the duration increase. Finally, the temporal pattern for 1 day, 3day and 5 days have been developed based on observed extreme rainfall at station 4513033 Gunung Brinchang for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in dam break analysis.

Texas floods of 1940

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breeding, Seth D.

1948-01-01

Floods occurred in Texas during, June, July, and November 1940 that exceeded known stages on many small streams and at a few places on the larger streams. Stages at several stream-gaging stations exceeded the maximum known at those places since the collection of daily records began. A storm, haying its axis generally on a north-south line from Cameron to Victoria and extending across the Brazos, Colorado, Lavaca, and Guadalupe River Basins, caused heavy rainfall over a large part of south-central Texas. The maximum recorded rain of 22.7 inches for the 2-day period June 29-30 occurred at Engle. Of this amount, 17.5 inches fell in the 12-hour period between 8 p.m. June 29, and 8 a.m. June 30. Light rains fell at a number of places on June 28, and additional light rains fell at many places within the area from July 1 to 4. During the period June 28 to July 4 more than 20 inches of rain fell over an area of 300 square miles, more than 15 inches over 1,920 square miles, and more than 10 inches over 5,100 square miles. The average annual rainfall for the area experiencing the heaviest rainfall during this storm is about 35 inches. Farming is largely confined to the fertile flood plains in much of the area subjected to the record-breaking floods in June and July. Therefore these floods, coming at the height of the growing season, caused severe losses to crops. Much damage was done also to highways and railways. The city of Hallettsville suffered the greatest damage of any urban area. The Lavaca River at that place reached a stage 8 feet higher than ever known before, drowned several people, destroyed many homes, and submerged almost the entire business district. The maximum discharge there was 93,100 second-feet from a drainage area of 101 square miles. Dry Creek near Smithville produced a maximum discharge of 1,879 second-feet from an area of 1.48 square miles and a runoff of 11.3 inches in a 2-day period from a rainfall of 19.5 inches. The area in the Colorado River Basin between Smithville and La Grange, amounting to 550 square miles, had an average rainfall of 19.3 inches, of which 11.5 inches appeared as runoff. The maximum discharge at La Grange was 182,000 second-feet, with much the greater part coming from below Smithville. This is probably a record-breaking flood for the area between Smithville and La Grange, but stages as much as 16 feet higher have occurred at La Grange. Heavy rainfall over the east half of Texas November 21-26 caused large floods in all streams in Texas east of the Guadalupe River. The maximum recorded rainfall for the 2-day period November 24-25 was 20.46 inches at Hempstead, of which 16.00 inches fell in 24 hours or less. The storm occurred during the period November 20-26, with the greater part of the rain falling November 23-25. During the period November 20-26, rainfall in Texas amounted to more than 15 inches over an area of 3,380 square miles, and 'to more than 10 inches over an area of 17,570 square miles. The average annual rainfall for the area in Texas experiencing more than 10 inches of rain during this storm ranges from 501 inches on the east border of the State to 35 inches near the west edge of the area. The study of this storm for the purposes of this report is limited to the San Jacinto River Basin, which had an average rainfall of 13.6 inches. This basin has an area of 2,791 square miles above the gaging station near Huffman and is typical in topographic and hydrologic features of much of eastern Texas. The stage reached at the gage near Huffman was about 1 foot higher than known before, the maximum discharge was 253,000 second-feet, and the runoff from the storm amounted to 8.8 inches. The November flood came after crops had been harvested, and its damage was mainly the destruction of highways and railways and the drowning of livestock. The storage reservoirs on the Colorado River located well upstream from the storm areas herein studied had very little effect on

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity II. Statistical analysis of floods in Quebec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

This paper, the second of a two-part paper, investigates the nonstationary behaviour of flood peaks in Quebec (Canada) by analyzing the annual maximum flow series (AMS) available for the common 1966-2001 period from a network of 32 watersheds. Temporal trends in the mean of flood peaks were examined by the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. The significance of the detected trends over the whole province is also assessed by a bootstrap test that preserves the cross-correlation structure of the network. Furthermore, The LM-NS method (introduced in the first part) is used to parametrically model the AMS, investigating its applicability to real data, to account for temporal trends in the moments of the time series. In this study two probability distributions (GEV & Gumbel) were selected to model four different types of time-varying moments of the historical time series considered, comprising eight competing models. The selected models are: two stationary models (GEV0 & Gumbel0), two nonstationary models in the mean as a linear function of time (GEV1 & Gumbel1), two nonstationary models in the mean as a parabolic function of time (GEV2 & Gumbel2), and two nonstationary models in the mean and the log standard deviation as linear functions of time (GEV11 & Gumbel11). The eight models were applied to flood data available for each watershed and their performance was compared to identify the best model for each location. The comparative methodology involves two phases: (1) a descriptive ability based on likelihood-based optimality criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the deviance statistic; and (2) a predictive ability based on the residual bootstrap. According to the Mann-Kendall test and the LM-NS method, a quarter of the analyzed stations show significant trends in the AMS. All of the significant trends are negative, indicating decreasing flood magnitudes in Quebec. It was found that the LM-NS method could provide accurate flood estimates in the context of nonstationarity. The results have indicated the importance of taking into consideration the nonstationary behaviour of the flood series in order to improve the quality of flood estimation. The results also provided a general impression on the possible impacts of climate change on flood estimation in the Quebec province.

The 2-3 November 2015 flood of the Sió River (NE Iberian Peninsula): a flash flood that turns into a mudflow downstream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carles Balasch Solanes, Josep; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep; Rodríguez, Rafael; Tuset, Jordi; Castelltort, Xavier; Barriendos, Mariano; Pino, David; Mazón, Jordi

2016-04-01

Historical and recent evidence shows that many floods in the interior of Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) usually have such a great sediment load that can even alter the hydraulic behaviour of the flow. This is especially true in catchments with a great proportion of agricultural soils, which are the main source of sediment. The night of 2-3 November 2015 torrential rains fell on the headwaters of the Sió River catchment (508 km2); the subsequent flood caused four deaths and many damages along the stream. The hydrological, hydraulic and sedimentary characteristics of this recent flood have been analysed in order to gain a better insight on the characteristics of the major historical floods in the same catchment. The rainfall height on the headwaters was between 139 and 146 mm in ten hours, with a maximum intensity of about 50 mm·h-1. In the rest of the catchment it rained much less (22-71 mm). The agricultural soils in the headwaters show evidence of intense erosion by laminar and concentrated Hortonian overland flow in their superficial layer (Ap1; 10 cm), which uncovered the more compact underlying layer (Ap2). The peak flow in the headwaters (Oluges) was 90 m3·s-1 (that is, a specific peak flow near 1 m3·s-1·km-2) and it diminished downstream: 40 m3·s-1 in the centre of the catchment (Oluges + 27 km) and 15 m3·s-1 in the outlet (Oluges + 54 km). The suspended sediment load was 10-15% in volume in the headwaters and, judging from recorded images and eyewitnesses, it increased as the flow moved downstream, turning the flash flood into a mudflow. This concentration gain was most probably caused by the flood wave's water loss due to the dryness of the riverbed and translated in an increased viscosity that ultimately altered the hydraulic behaviour of the flow, slowing it down. This process of water loss has been observed in flash floods in dry riverbeds in arid and semiarid areas such as Negev (Israel) and Atacama (Chile). Historical floods in neighbouring catchments (Ondara and Corb Rivers) are known to have had hyperconcetrated flows.

Regional flood frequency analysis in Triveneto (Italy): climate and scale controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persiano, Simone; Castellarin, Attilio; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

2016-04-01

The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review previously proposed procedures for design-flood estimation, such as national regionalization approaches. Our study focuses on the Triveneto region, a broad geographical area in North-eastern Italy consisting of the administrative regions of Trentino-Alto Adige, Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia. A reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto is available from the Italian NCR research project "VA.PI.", which developed a regional model using annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges that were collected up to the 80s by the former Italian Hydrometeorological Service. We consider a very detailed AMS database that we recently compiled for ~80 catchments located in Triveneto. Our dataset includes the historical data mentioned above, together with more recent data obtained from Regional Services and annual maximum peak streamflows extracted from inflow series to artificial reservoirs and provided by dam managers. All ~80 study catchments are characterized in terms of several geomorphologic and climatic descriptors. The main objectives of our study are: (1) to check whether climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime in Triveneto are similar to the controls that were recently found in Europe; (2) to verify the possible presence of trends as well as abrupt changes in the intensity and frequency of flood extremes by looking at changes in time of regional L-moments of annual maximum floods; (3) to assess the reliability and representativeness of the reference procedure for design flood estimation relative to flood data that were not included in the VA.PI. dataset (i.e. more recent data collected after the 80s and historical data provided by dam managers); (4) to develop an updated reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto by using a focused-pooling approach (i.e. Region of Influence, RoI).

Estimation of flood discharges at selected annual exceedance probabilities for unregulated, rural streams in Vermont, with a section on Vermont regional skew regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; with a section by Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

This report provides estimates of flood discharges at selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) for streamgages in and adjacent to Vermont and equations for estimating flood discharges at AEPs of 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent (recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-years, respectively) for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in Vermont. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression. Flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 145 streamgages were used in developing the equations. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations include drainage area, percentage of wetland area, and the basin-wide mean of the average annual precipitation. The average standard errors of prediction for estimating the flood discharges at the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP with these equations are 34.9, 36.0, 38.7, 42.4, 44.9, 47.3, 50.7, and 55.1 percent, respectively. Flood discharges at selected AEPs for streamgages were computed by using the Expected Moments Algorithm. To improve estimates of the flood discharges for given exceedance probabilities at streamgages in Vermont, a new generalized skew coefficient was developed. The new generalized skew for the region is a constant, 0.44. The mean square error of the generalized skew coefficient is 0.078. This report describes a technique for using results from the regression equations to adjust an AEP discharge computed from a streamgage record. This report also describes a technique for using a drainage-area adjustment to estimate flood discharge at a selected AEP for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is a World Wide Web application providing automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

Likelihood-based confidence intervals for estimating floods with given return periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Eduardo Sávio P. R.; Clarke, Robin T.

1993-06-01

This paper discusses aspects of the calculation of likelihood-based confidence intervals for T-year floods, with particular reference to (1) the two-parameter gamma distribution; (2) the Gumbel distribution; (3) the two-parameter log-normal distribution, and other distributions related to the normal by Box-Cox transformations. Calculation of the confidence limits is straightforward using the Nelder-Mead algorithm with a constraint incorporated, although care is necessary to ensure convergence either of the Nelder-Mead algorithm, or of the Newton-Raphson calculation of maximum-likelihood estimates. Methods are illustrated using records from 18 gauging stations in the basin of the River Itajai-Acu, State of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil. A small and restricted simulation compared likelihood-based confidence limits with those given by use of the central limit theorem; for the same confidence probability, the confidence limits of the simulation were wider than those of the central limit theorem, which failed more frequently to contain the true quantile being estimated. The paper discusses possible applications of likelihood-based confidence intervals in other areas of hydrological analysis.

Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.

2017-12-01

Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

Numerical simulation of pore pressure changes in levee under flood conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanisz, Jacek; Borecka, Aleksandra; Pilecki, Zenon; Kaczmarczyk, Robert

2017-11-01

The article discusses the potential for using numerical simulation to assess the development of deformation and pore pressure changes in a levee as a result of the increase and decrease of the flood wave. The simulation made in FLAC 2D did not take into account the filter-erosion deformation associated with seepage in the levee. The simulations were carried out for a field experimental storage consisting of two combined levees, which was constructed with the help of homogeneous cohesive materials with different filtration coefficients. Calculated and measured pore pressure changes were analysed at 4 monitoring points. The water level was increased to 4 m in 96 hours and decreased in 120 hours. The characteristics of the calculated and measured pore pressure changes over time were similar. The maximum values of the calculated and measured pore pressure were almost identical. The only differences were the greater delay of the experimental levee response to changes in water level increase compared to the response of the numerical model. These differences were probably related to filtering-erosion effects during seepage in the levee.

Winter-spring 2001 United States streamflow probabilities based on anticipated neutral ENSO conditions and recent NPO status

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; McCabe, G.J.; Redmond, K.T.

2000-01-01

An analysis of historical floods and seasonal streamflows during years with neutral El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific and “negative” states of the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the North Pacific—like those expected next year—indicates that (1) chances of having maximum-daily flows next year that are near the longterm averages in many rivers are enhanced, especially in the western states, (2) chances of having near-average seasonal-average flows also may be enhanced across the country, and (3) locally, chances of large floods and winter-season flows may be enhanced in the extreme Northwest, chances of large winter flows may be diminished in rivers in and around Wisconsin, and chances of large spring flows may be diminished in the interior southwest and southeastern coastal plain. The background, methods, and forecast results that lead to these statements are detailed below, followed by a summary of the successes and failures of last year’s streamflow forecast by Dettinger et al. (1999).

How frequently will the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) observe floods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frasson, R. P. M.; Schumann, G.

2017-12-01

The SWOT mission will measure river width and water surface elevations of rivers wider than 100 m. As the data gathered by this mission will be freely available, it can be of great use for flood modeling, especially in areas where streamgage networks are exceedingly sparse, or when data sharing barriers prevent the timely access to information. Despite having world-wide coverage, SWOT's temporal sampling is limited, with most locations being revisited once or twice every 21 days. Our objective is to evaluate which fraction of world-wide floods SWOT will observe and how many observations per event the satellite will likely obtain. We take advantage of the extensive database of floods constructed by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, who, since 1985, searches through news sources and governmental agencies, and more recently remote sensing imagery for flood information, including flood duration, location and affected area. We cross-referenced the flood locations in the DFO archive with the SWOT prototype prior database of river centerlines and the anticipated satellite's orbit to identify how many of the SWOT swaths were located within 10 km, 20 km, and 50 km from a flood centroid. Subsequently, we estimated the probability that SWOT would have at least one observation of a flood event per distance bin by multiplying the number of swaths in the distance bin by the flood duration divided by the SWOT orbit repeat period. Our analysis contemplated 132 world-wide floods recorded between May 2016 and May 2017. From these, 29, 52, and 86 floods had at least a 50% probability of having one overpass within 10 km, 20 km, and 50 km respectively. Moreover, after excluding flood events with no river centerlines within 10 km of its centroid, the average number of swaths within 10 km of a flood centroid was 1.79, indicating that in the 37 flood events that were likely caused by river flooding, at least one measurement was guaranteed to happen during the event.

Factors related to the joint probability of flooding on paired streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Sherwood, J.M.

1998-01-01

The factors related to the joint probabilty of flooding on paired streams were investigated and quantified to provide information to aid in the design of hydraulic structures where the joint probabilty of flooding is an element of the design criteria. Stream pairs were considered to have flooded jointly at the design-year flood threshold (corresponding to the 2-, 10-, 25-, or 50-year instantaneous peak streamflow) if peak streamflows at both streams in the pair were observed or predicted to have equaled or exceeded the threshold on a given calendar day. Daily mean streamflow data were used as a substitute for instantaneous peak streamflow data to determine which flood thresholds were equaled or exceeded on any given day. Instantaneous peak streamflow data, when available, were used preferentially to assess flood-threshold exceedance. Daily mean streamflow data for each stream were paired with concurrent daily mean streamflow data at the other streams. Observed probabilities of joint flooding, determined for the 2-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year flood thresholds, were computed as the ratios of the total number of days when streamflows at both streams concurrently equaled or exceeded their flood thresholds (events) to the total number of days where streamflows at either stream equaled or exceeded its flood threshold (trials). A combination of correlation analyses, graphical analyses, and logistic-regression analyses were used to identify and quantify factors associated with the observed probabilities of joint flooding (event-trial ratios). The analyses indicated that the distance between drainage area centroids, the ratio of the smaller to larger drainage area, the mean drainage area, and the centroid angle adjusted 30 degrees were the basin characteristics most closely associated with the joint probabilty of flooding on paired streams in Ohio. In general, the analyses indicated that the joint probabilty of flooding decreases with an increase in centroid distance and increases with increases in drainage area ratio, mean drainage area, and centroid angle adjusted 30 degrees. Logistic-regression equations were developed, which can be used to estimate the probability that streamflows at two streams jointly equal or exceed the 2-year flood threshold given that the streamflow at one of the two streams equals or exceeds the 2-year flood threshold. The logistic-regression equations are applicable to stream pairs in Ohio (and border areas of adjacent states) that are unregulated, free of significant urban influences, and have characteristics similar to those of the 304 gaged stream pairs used in the logistic-regression analyses. Contingency tables were constructed and analyzed to provide information about the bivariate distribution of floods on paired streams. The contingency tables showed that the percentage of trials in which both streams in the pair concurrently flood at identical recurrence-interval ranges generally increased as centroid distances decreased and was greatest for stream pairs with adjusted centroid angles greater than or equal to 60 degrees and drainage area ratios greater than or equal to 0.01. Also, as centroid distance increased, streamflow at one stream in the pair was more likely to be in a less than 2-year recurrence-interval range when streamflow at the second stream was in a 2-year or greater recurrence-interval range.

Temporal and spatial variability of the sediment grain-size distribution on the Eel shelf: The flood layer of 1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drake, D.E.

1999-01-01

Sediment grain-size characteristics observed on the Eel shelf have been analyzed using a wet-sieving technique that minimizes breakage of aggregates. At several sites on the 70-m isobath north of the river, where a 1995 flood layer attained a maximum thickness of about 9 cm, replicate box cores were collected on seven cruises during February 1995 to January 1997. These samples provide a unique opportunity to follow the evolution of a flood layer over a two-year period as it was modified and gradually buried. One month after the flood, a layer of tan-colored, high-porosity sediment with up to 96% of its particles in the size range of 0-20 ??m had accumulated on the central part of the shelf, 7-30 km north of the river and principally between the 50-m and 90-m isobaths. Substantial coarsening of this layer occurred between February 1995 and May 1995, particularly along the southern and the landward edge of the deposit in water depths of <70 m. The early stage of coarsening was probably caused by physical reworking of the surface 0.5-cm of the deposit and by addition of new sediment from shallower regions of the shelf. Temporal changes in inventories of several grain-size fractions show that physical processes continued to add coarse sediment to the flood layer after May 1995, but the large increases in thickness of the surface mixed layer could only be attributed to bioturbation by a recovering, or seasonally fluctuating, benthic community. The 1995 flood layer has evolved from exhibiting limited variability and normal grading (i:e., upward fining) to a layer that (1) shows significant spatial variability on scales from centimeters to 10's of meters, (2) is substantially coarser owing to additions of sediment from the inner shelf, (3) is inversely graded (i.e., coarsens upward), and (4) is intensely bioturbated to depths of 4-5 cm.

A Study on Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis for Flood Simulation Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Younghun; Ahn, Hyunjun; Joo, Kyungwon; Heo, Jun-Haeng

2014-05-01

Recently, climate change has been observed in Korea as well as in the entire world. The rainstorm has been gradually increased and then the damage has been grown. It is very important to manage the flood control facilities because of increasing the frequency and magnitude of severe rain storm. For managing flood control facilities in risky regions, data sets such as elevation, gradient, channel, land use and soil data should be filed up. Using this information, the disaster situations can be simulated to secure evacuation routes for various rainfall scenarios. The aim of this study is to investigate and determine extreme rainfall quantile estimates in Uijeongbu City using index flood method with L-moments parameter estimation. Regional frequency analysis trades space for time by using annual maximum rainfall data from nearby or similar sites to derive estimates for any given site in a homogeneous region. Regional frequency analysis based on pooled data is recommended for estimation of rainfall quantiles at sites with record lengths less than 5T, where T is return period of interest. Many variables relevant to precipitation can be used for grouping a region in regional frequency analysis. For regionalization of Han River basin, the k-means method is applied for grouping regions by variables of meteorology and geomorphology. The results from the k-means method are compared for each region using various probability distributions. In the final step of the regionalization analysis, goodness-of-fit measure is used to evaluate the accuracy of a set of candidate distributions. And rainfall quantiles by index flood method are obtained based on the appropriate distribution. And then, rainfall quantiles based on various scenarios are used as input data for disaster simulations. Keywords: Regional Frequency Analysis; Scenarios of Rainfall Quantile Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Establishing Active Disaster Management System of Flood Control Structures by using 3D BIM Technique' [NEMA-12-NH-57] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

Combining Probability Distributions of Wind Waves and Sea Level Variations to Assess Return Periods of Coastal Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leijala, U.; Bjorkqvist, J. V.; Pellikka, H.; Johansson, M. M.; Kahma, K. K.

2017-12-01

Predicting the behaviour of the joint effect of sea level and wind waves is of great significance due to the major impact of flooding events in densely populated coastal regions. As mean sea level rises, the effect of sea level variations accompanied by the waves will be even more harmful in the future. The main challenge when evaluating the effect of waves and sea level variations is that long time series of both variables rarely exist. Wave statistics are also highly location-dependent, thus requiring wave buoy measurements and/or high-resolution wave modelling. As an initial approximation of the joint effect, the variables may be treated as independent random variables, to achieve the probability distribution of their sum. We present results of a case study based on three probability distributions: 1) wave run-up constructed from individual wave buoy measurements, 2) short-term sea level variability based on tide gauge data, and 3) mean sea level projections based on up-to-date regional scenarios. The wave measurements were conducted during 2012-2014 on the coast of city of Helsinki located in the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The short-term sea level distribution contains the last 30 years (1986-2015) of hourly data from Helsinki tide gauge, and the mean sea level projections are scenarios adjusted for the Gulf of Finland. Additionally, we present a sensitivity test based on six different theoretical wave height distributions representing different wave behaviour in relation to sea level variations. As these wave distributions are merged with one common sea level distribution, we can study how the different shapes of the wave height distribution affect the distribution of the sum, and which one of the components is dominating under different wave conditions. As an outcome of the method, we obtain a probability distribution of the maximum elevation of the continuous water mass, which enables a flexible tool for evaluating different risk levels in the current and future climate.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation-based index insurance for floods: Statistical risk analyses and application to Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalil, Abedalrazq F.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Miranda, Mario J.; Skees, Jerry

2007-10-01

Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate-related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations, data are inadequate to develop an index because of short time series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the districts of Peru, Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many microenterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data are variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (1) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall, (2) the effect of sampling uncertainties and the strength of the proxy's association to local outcome, (3) the potential for clustering of payoffs, (4) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season, and (5) evidence for climate change or nonstationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record.

Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, A.; Jonkman, S. N.; Van Ledden, M.

2015-01-01

Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that - depending on the flood scenario - the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion.

Effect of catchment properties and flood generation regime on copula selection for bivariate flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filipova, Valeriya; Lawrence, Deborah; Klempe, Harald

2018-02-01

Applying copula-based bivariate flood frequency analysis is advantageous because the results provide information on both the flood peak and volume. More data are, however, required for such an analysis, and it is often the case that only data series with a limited record length are available. To overcome this issue of limited record length, data regarding climatic and geomorphological properties can be used to complement statistical methods. In this paper, we present a study of 27 catchments located throughout Norway, in which we assess whether catchment properties, flood generation processes and flood regime have an effect on the correlation between flood peak and volume and, in turn, on the selection of copulas. To achieve this, the annual maximum flood events were first classified into events generated primarily by rainfall, snowmelt or a combination of these. The catchments were then classified into flood regime, depending on the predominant flood generation process producing the annual maximum flood events. A contingency table and Fisher's exact test were used to determine the factors that affect the selection of copulas in the study area. The results show that the two-parameter copulas BB1 and BB7 are more commonly selected in catchments with high steepness, high mean annual runoff and rainfall flood regime. These findings suggest that in these types of catchments, the dependence structure between flood peak and volume is more complex and cannot be modeled effectively using a one-parameter copula. The results illustrate that by relating copula types to flood regime and catchment properties, additional information can be supplied for selecting copulas in catchments with limited data.

Comparison of Alaskan Flood Stages: Annual Exceedance Probability vs. Impact Based Stages and Recommendations for the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, B. J.

2016-12-01

The Alaska River Forecasting Center (APRFC) issues water level forecasts that are used in conjunction with established flood stages to provide flood warning and advisory information to the public. The APRFC typically establishes flood stages based on observed impacts but Alaska has sparse empirical data (e.g., few impact surveys). Thus service hydrologists in Alaska use flood frequency analysis (LP3 distribution) to estimate flood stages from annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) (Curran et al, 2016). Previously, the APRFC has maintained that bankfull stage corresponds to the 50% AEP, minor to 10-20% AEP, moderate to 2.5-7% AEP, and major to 1-2% AEP, but we now need to statistically verify this relationship. Our objective is therefore to validate the relationship between flood stages and stage associated with the 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.2, and 0.5 AEPs to provide recommendations for improved flood forecasting. We studied the relationship between AEP and flood stage for all gages (56) used by the APRFC that had rating curves not older than 3 years, flood stages based on observed impacts, and at least 10 years of peak annual stage data. The analysis found relatively strong relationships for all flood stages, except for bankfull stage, but with some differences when compared to the traditionally referenced relationship. Major flood stage appears to be most similar to the 1-.2% AEP (100-500 year RI) while moderate flood stage best fits the 2-4% AEP (25-50 year interval). Gages showing a difference in stage of 2 ft or greater exhibited this difference across all flood stages, which we link to site specific qualities such as susceptibility to ice-jam flooding. We present this method as a possible application to Alaskan Rivers as a general flood stage guideline.

Measuring real-time streamflow using emerging technologies: Radar, hydroacoustics, and the probability concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, John; Ostrowski, Joseph

2008-07-01

SummaryForecasting streamflow during extreme hydrologic events such as floods can be problematic. This is particularly true when flow is unsteady, and river forecasts rely on models that require uniform-flow rating curves to route water from one forecast point to another. As a result, alternative methods for measuring streamflow are needed to properly route flood waves and account for inertial and pressure forces in natural channels dominated by nonuniform-flow conditions such as mild water surface slopes, backwater, tributary inflows, and reservoir operations. The objective of the demonstration was to use emerging technologies to measure instantaneous streamflow in open channels at two existing US Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. Surface-water and instream-point velocities were measured using hand-held radar and hydroacoustics. Streamflow was computed using the probability concept, which requires velocity data from a single vertical containing the maximum instream velocity. The percent difference in streamflow at the Susquehanna River at Bloomsburg, PA ranged from 0% to 8% with an average difference of 4% and standard deviation of 8.81 m 3/s. The percent difference in streamflow at Chartiers Creek at Carnegie, PA ranged from 0% to 11% with an average difference of 5% and standard deviation of 0.28 m 3/s. New generation equipment is being tested and developed to advance the use of radar-derived surface-water velocity and instantaneous streamflow to facilitate the collection and transmission of real-time streamflow that can be used to parameterize hydraulic routing models.

Measuring real-time streamflow using emerging technologies: Radar, hydroacoustics, and the probability concept

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, J.; Ostrowski, J.

2008-01-01

Forecasting streamflow during extreme hydrologic events such as floods can be problematic. This is particularly true when flow is unsteady, and river forecasts rely on models that require uniform-flow rating curves to route water from one forecast point to another. As a result, alternative methods for measuring streamflow are needed to properly route flood waves and account for inertial and pressure forces in natural channels dominated by nonuniform-flow conditions such as mild water surface slopes, backwater, tributary inflows, and reservoir operations. The objective of the demonstration was to use emerging technologies to measure instantaneous streamflow in open channels at two existing US Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Pennsylvania. Surface-water and instream-point velocities were measured using hand-held radar and hydroacoustics. Streamflow was computed using the probability concept, which requires velocity data from a single vertical containing the maximum instream velocity. The percent difference in streamflow at the Susquehanna River at Bloomsburg, PA ranged from 0% to 8% with an average difference of 4% and standard deviation of 8.81 m3/s. The percent difference in streamflow at Chartiers Creek at Carnegie, PA ranged from 0% to 11% with an average difference of 5% and standard deviation of 0.28 m3/s. New generation equipment is being tested and developed to advance the use of radar-derived surface-water velocity and instantaneous streamflow to facilitate the collection and transmission of real-time streamflow that can be used to parameterize hydraulic routing models.

Hydrologic Extremes and Risk Assessment under Non-stationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, A.

2015-12-01

In the context of hydrologic designs, robust assessment and communication of risk is crucial to ascertain a sustainable water future. Traditional methods for defining return period, risk or reliability assumes a stationary regime which may no longer be valid because of natural or man-made changes. Reformulations are suggested in recent literature to account for non-stationarity in the definition of hydrologic risk, as time evolves. This study presents a comparative analysis of design levels under non-stationarity based on time varying annual exceedance probabilities, waiting time of a hazardous event, number of hazardous events and probability of failure. A case study application is shown for peak streamflow in the flood-prone delta area of the Krishna River in India where an increasing trend in annual maximum flows are observed owing to persistent silting. Considerable disagreement is found between the design magnitudes of flood obtained by the different definitions of hydrologic risk. Such risk is also found to be highly sensitive to the assumed design life period and projections of trend in that period or beyond. Additionally, some critical points on the assumption of a deterministic non-stationary model for an observed natural process are also discussed. The findings highlight the necessity for a unifying framework for assessment and communication of hydrologic risk under transient hydro-climatic conditions. The concepts can also be extended to other applications such as regional hydrologic frequency analysis or development of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency relationships for infrastructure design.

Extreme Statistics of Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, E. A.; Medvedev, I. P.

2017-11-01

Statistical analysis of the extreme values of the Baltic Sea level has been performed for a series of observations for 15-125 years at 13 tide gauge stations. It is shown that the empirical relation between value of extreme sea level rises or ebbs (caused by storm events) and its return period in the Baltic Sea can be well approximated by the Gumbel probability distribution. The maximum values of extreme floods/ebbs of the 100-year recurrence were observed in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The two longest data series, observed in Stockholm and Vyborg over 125 years, have shown a significant deviation from the Gumbel distribution for the rarest events. Statistical analysis of the hourly sea level data series reveals some asymmetry in the variability of the Baltic Sea level. The probability of rises proved higher than that of ebbs. As for the magnitude of the 100-year recurrence surge, it considerably exceeded the magnitude of ebbs almost everywhere. This asymmetry effect can be attributed to the influence of low atmospheric pressure during storms. A statistical study of extreme values has also been applied to sea level series for Narva over the period of 1994-2000, which were simulated by the ROMS numerical model. Comparisons of the "simulated" and "observed" extreme sea level distributions show that the model reproduces quite satisfactorily extreme floods of "moderate" magnitude; however, it underestimates sea level changes for the most powerful storm surges.

Floods at Mount Clemens, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiitala, S.W.; Ash, Arlington D.

1962-01-01

The approximate areas inundated during the flood of April 5-6, 1947, by Clinton River, North Branch and Middle Branch of Clinton River, and Harrington Drain, in Clinton Township, Macomb County, Mich., are shown on a topographic map base to record the flood hazard in graphical form. The flood of April 1947 is the highest known since 1934 and probably since 1902. Greater floods are possible, but no attempt was made to define their probable overflow limits.The Clinton River Cut-Off Canal, a flood-relief channel which diverts flow directly into Lake St. Clair from a point about 1500 feet downstream from Gratiot Avenue (about 9 miles upstream from the mouth) has been in operation since October 1951. The approximate limits of overflow that would results from a flood equivalent in discharge to that of April 1947, and occurring with the Cut-Off Canal in operation, are also shown. Although the Cut-Off Canal may reduce the frequency and depth of flooding it will not necessarily eliminate future flooding in the area. Improvements and additions to the drainage systems in the basin, expanding urbanization, new highways, and other cultural changes may influence the inundation pattern of future floods.The preparation of this flood inundation map was financed through a cooperative agreement between Clinton Township, Macomb County, Mich., and the U.S. Geological Survey.Backwater curves used to define the profile for a hypothetical flood on the Clinton River downstream from Moravian Drive, equivalent in discharge to the 1947 flood, but occurring with the present Cut-Off Canal in operation; flood stage established at the gaging station on Clinton River at Mount Clemens; and supplementary floodmark elevations were furnished by the Corps of Engineers.Bench-mark elevations and field survey data, used in the analysis of floods on Harrington Drain, were furnished by the Macomb County Drain Commission.

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping at ungauged streams due to roughness coefficient uncertainty in hydraulic modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papaioannou, George; Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios; Aronica, Giuseppe T.

2017-04-01

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping is performed and analysed at the ungauged Xerias stream reach, Volos, Greece. The study evaluates the uncertainty introduced by the roughness coefficient values on hydraulic models in flood inundation modelling and mapping. The well-established one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model, HEC-RAS is selected and linked to Monte-Carlo simulations of hydraulic roughness. Terrestrial Laser Scanner data have been used to produce a high quality DEM for input data uncertainty minimisation and to improve determination accuracy on stream channel topography required by the hydraulic model. Initial Manning's n roughness coefficient values are based on pebble count field surveys and empirical formulas. Various theoretical probability distributions are fitted and evaluated on their accuracy to represent the estimated roughness values. Finally, Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for generation of different sets of Manning roughness values and flood inundation probability maps have been created with the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Historical flood extent data, from an extreme historical flash flood event, are used for validation of the method. The calibration process is based on a binary wet-dry reasoning with the use of Median Absolute Percentage Error evaluation metric. The results show that the proposed procedure supports probabilistic flood hazard mapping at ungauged rivers and provides water resources managers with valuable information for planning and implementing flood risk mitigation strategies.

Flood type specific construction of synthetic design hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Manuela I.; Viviroli, Daniel; Sikorska, Anna E.; Vannier, Olivier; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Seibert, Jan

2017-02-01

Accurate estimates of flood peaks, corresponding volumes, and hydrographs are required to design safe and cost-effective hydraulic structures. In this paper, we propose a statistical approach for the estimation of the design variables peak and volume by constructing synthetic design hydrographs for different flood types such as flash-floods, short-rain floods, long-rain floods, and rain-on-snow floods. Our approach relies on the fitting of probability density functions to observed flood hydrographs of a certain flood type and accounts for the dependence between peak discharge and flood volume. It makes use of the statistical information contained in the data and retains the process information of the flood type. The method was tested based on data from 39 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland and provides catchment specific and flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs for all of these catchments. We demonstrate that flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs are meaningful in flood-risk management when combined with knowledge on the seasonality and the frequency of different flood types.

Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellikka, Havu; Leijala, Ulpu; Johansson, Milla M.; Leinonen, Katri; Kahma, Kimmo K.

2018-04-01

Coastal planning requires detailed knowledge of future flooding risks, and effective planning must consider both short-term sea level variations and the long-term trend. We calculate distributions that combine short- and long-term effects to provide estimates of flood probabilities in 2050 and 2100 on the Finnish coast in the Baltic Sea. Our distributions of short-term sea level variations are based on 46 years (1971-2016) of observations from the 13 Finnish tide gauges. The long-term scenarios of mean sea level combine postglacial land uplift, regionally adjusted scenarios of global sea level rise, and the effect of changes in the wind climate. The results predict that flooding risks will clearly increase by 2100 in the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Sea, while only a small increase or no change compared to present-day conditions is expected in the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.

Streamflow simulation studies of the Hillsborough, Alafia, and Anclote Rivers, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turner, J.F.

1979-01-01

A modified version of the Georgia Tech Watershed Model was applied for the purpose of flow simulation in three large river basins of west-central Florida. Calibrations were evaluated by comparing the following synthesized and observed data: annual hydrographs for the 1959, 1960, 1973 and 1974 water years, flood hydrographs (maximum daily discharge and flood volume), and long-term annual flood-peak discharges (1950-72). Annual hydrographs, excluding the 1973 water year, were compared using average absolute error in annual runoff and daily flows and correlation coefficients of monthly and daily flows. Correlations coefficients for simulated and observed maximum daily discharges and flood volumes used for calibrating range from 0.91 to 0.98 and average standard errors of estimate range from 18 to 45 percent. Correlation coefficients for simulated and observed annual flood-peak discharges range from 0.60 to 0.74 and average standard errors of estimate range from 33 to 44 percent. (Woodard-USGS)

The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries(compiler), Kernell G.; With sections by Atkins, J. B.; Hummel, P.R.; Gray, Matthew J.; Dusenbury, R.; Jennings, M.E.; Kirby, W.H.; Riggs, H.C.; Sauer, V.B.; Thomas, W.O.

2007-01-01

The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals, estimates of the probable maximum flood, extrapolation of the 500-year flood when an equation for estimating it is not available, and weighting techniques to improve flood-frequency estimates for gaging stations and ungaged sites on gaged streams. This report describes the regionalization techniques used to develop the equations in NSS and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The report also includes a users manual and a summary of equations available for estimating basin lagtime, which is needed by the program to generate flood hydrographs. The NSS software and accompanying database, and the documentation for the regression equations included in NSS, are available on the Web at http://water.usgs.gov/software/.

A channel dynamics model for real-time flood forecasting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoos, Anne B.; Koussis, Antonis D.; Beale, Guy O.

1989-01-01

A new channel dynamics scheme (alternative system predictor in real time (ASPIRE)), designed specifically for real-time river flow forecasting, is introduced to reduce uncertainty in the forecast. ASPIRE is a storage routing model that limits the influence of catchment model forecast errors to the downstream station closest to the catchment. Comparisons with the Muskingum routing scheme in field tests suggest that the ASPIRE scheme can provide more accurate forecasts, probably because discharge observations are used to a maximum advantage and routing reaches (and model errors in each reach) are uncoupled. Using ASPIRE in conjunction with the Kalman filter did not improve forecast accuracy relative to a deterministic updating procedure. Theoretical analysis suggests that this is due to a large process noise to measurement noise ratio.

Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, A.; Jonkman, S. N.; Van Ledden, M.

2014-01-01

After the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to hurricane Katrina in the year 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a risk-based approach the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that - depending on the flood scenario - the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large scale engineering systems (e.g. other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation.

Watershed Dynamics, with focus on connectivity index and management of water related impacts on road infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalantari, Z.

2015-12-01

In Sweden, spatially explicit approaches have been applied in various disciplines such as landslide modelling based on soil type data and flood risk modelling for large rivers. Regarding flood mapping, most previous studies have focused on complex hydrological modelling on a small scale whereas just a few studies have used a robust GIS-based approach integrating most physical catchment descriptor (PCD) aspects on a larger scale. This study was built on a conceptual framework for looking at SedInConnect model, topography, land use, soil data and other PCDs and climate change in an integrated way to pave the way for more integrated policy making. The aim of the present study was to develop methodology for predicting the spatial probability of flooding on a general large scale. This framework can provide a region with an effective tool to inform a broad range of watershed planning activities within a region. Regional planners, decision-makers, etc. can utilize this tool to identify the most vulnerable points in a watershed and along roads to plan for interventions and actions to alter impacts of high flows and other extreme weather events on roads construction. The application of the model over a large scale can give a realistic spatial characterization of sediment connectivity for the optimal management of debris flow to road structures. The ability of the model to capture flooding probability was determined for different watersheds in central Sweden. Using data from this initial investigation, a method to subtract spatial data for multiple catchments and to produce soft data for statistical analysis was developed. It allowed flood probability to be predicted from spatially sparse data without compromising the significant hydrological features on the landscape. This in turn allowed objective quantification of the probability of floods at the field scale for future model development and watershed management.

Quantification of flash flood economic risk using ultra-detailed stage-damage functions and 2-D hydraulic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, J.; Alvarenga, F. M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

2016-10-01

The village of Pajares de Pedraza (Segovia, Spain) is located in the floodplain of the Cega River, a left bank tributary of the Douro River. Repeated flash flood events occur in this small village because of its upstream catchment area, mountainous character and impermeable lithology, which reduce concentration time to just a few hours. River overbank flow has frequently caused flooding and property damage to homes and rural properties, most notably in 1927, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2013 and 2014. Consequently, a detailed analysis was carried out to quantify the economic risk of flash floods in peri-urban and rural areas. Magnitudes and exceedance probabilities were obtained from a flood frequency analysis of maximum discharges. To determine the extent and characteristics of the flooded area, we performed 2D hydraulic modeling (Iber 2.0 software) based on LIDAR (1 m) topography and considering three different scenarios associated with the initial construction (1997) and subsequent extension (2013) of a linear defense structure (rockfill dike or levee) to protect the population. Specific stage-damage functions were expressly developed using in situ data collection for exposed elements, with special emphasis on urban-type categories. The average number of elements and their unit value were established. The relationship between water depth and the height at which electric outlets, furniture, household goods, etc. were located was analyzed; due to its effect on the form of the function. Other nonspecific magnitude-damage functions were used in order to compare both economic estimates. The results indicate that the use of non-specific magnitude-damage functions leads to a significant overestimation of economic losses, partly linked to the use of general economic cost data. Furthermore, a detailed classification and financial assessment of exposed assets is the most important step to ensure a correct estimate of financial losses. In both cases, this should include a consideration of the socio-economic and cultural conditions prevailing in the area, as well as the types of flood that affect it.

Climate, orography and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persiano, Simone; Castellarin, Attilio; Salinas, Jose Luis; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

2016-05-01

The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review previously proposed reference procedures for design-flood estimation, such as national flood frequency models. Our study focuses on Triveneto, a broad geographical region in North-eastern Italy. A reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto is available from the Italian NCR research project "VA.PI.", which considered Triveneto as a single homogeneous region and developed a regional model using annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges that were collected up to the 1980s by the former Italian Hydrometeorological Service. We consider a very detailed AMS database that we recently compiled for 76 catchments located in Triveneto. All 76 study catchments are characterized in terms of several geomorphologic and climatic descriptors. The objective of our study is threefold: (1) to inspect climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime; (2) to verify the possible presence of changes in flood frequency regime by looking at changes in time of regional L-moments of annual maximum floods; (3) to develop an updated reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto by using a focused-pooling approach (i.e. Region of Influence, RoI). Our study leads to the following conclusions: (1) climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime in Triveneto are similar to the controls that were recently found in Europe; (2) a single year characterized by extreme floods can have a remarkable influence on regional flood frequency models and analyses for detecting possible changes in flood frequency regime; (3) no significant change was detected in the flood frequency regime, yet an update of the existing reference procedure for design flood estimation is highly recommended and we propose the RoI approach for properly representing climate and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto, which cannot be regarded as a single homogeneous region.

Analyses of flood-flow frequency for selected gaging stations in South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, R.D.; Hoffman, E.B.; Wipf, V.J.

1985-01-01

Analyses of flood flow frequency were made for 111 continuous-record gaging stations in South Dakota with 10 or more years of record. The analyses were developed using the log-Pearson Type III procedure recommended by the U.S. Water Resources Council. The procedure characterizes flood occurrence at a single site as a sequence of annual peak flows. The magnitudes of the annual peak flows are assumed to be independent random variables following a log-Pearson Type III probability distribution, which defines the probability that any single annual peak flow will exceed a specified discharge. By considering only annual peak flows, the flood-frequency analysis becomes the estimation of the log-Pearson annual-probability curve using the record of annual peak flows at the site. The recorded data are divided into two classes: systematic and historic. The systematic record includes all annual peak flows determined in the process of conducting a systematic gaging program at a site. In this program, the annual peak flow is determined for each and every year of the program. The systematic record is intended to constitute an unbiased and representative sample of the population of all possible annual peak flows at the site. In contrast to the systematic record, the historic record consists of annual peak flows that would not have been determined except for evidence indicating their unusual magnitude. Flood information acquired from historical sources almost invariably refers to floods of noteworthy, and hence extraordinary, size. Although historic records form a biased and unrepresentative sample, they can be used to supplement the systematic record. (Author 's abstract)

Recognition of maximum flooding events in mixed siliciclastic-carbonate systems: Key to global chronostratigraphic correlation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mancini, E.A.; Tew, B.H.

1997-01-01

The maximum flooding event within a depositional sequence is an important datum for correlation because it represents a virtually synchronous horizon. This event is typically recognized by a distinctive physical surface and/or a significant change in microfossil assemblages (relative fossil abundance peaks) in siliciclastic deposits from shoreline to continental slope environments in a passive margin setting. Recognition of maximum flooding events in mixed siliciclastic-carbonate sediments is more complicated because the entire section usually represents deposition in continental shelf environments with varying rates of biologic and carbonate productivity versus siliciclastic influx. Hence, this event cannot be consistently identified simply by relative fossil abundance peaks. Factors such as siliciclastic input, carbonate productivity, sediment accumulation rates, and paleoenvironmental conditions dramatically affect the relative abundances of microfossils. Failure to recognize these complications can lead to a sequence stratigraphic interpretation that substantially overestimates the number of depositional sequences of 1 to 10 m.y. duration.

Flood of June 17, 1990, in the Clear Creek Basin, east-central Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnes, K.K.; Eash, D.A.

1994-01-01

A water-surface-elevation profile for the flood of June 17, 1990, in the Clear Creek Basin, east-central Iowa, is given in this report. The maximum flood-peak discharge of 10,200 cubic feet per second for the streamflow-gaging station on Clear Creek near Coralville, Iowa (station number 05454300), occurred on June 17, 1990. This discharge was approximately equal to the 80-year recurrence-interval discharge. A flood history describes rainfall conditions for floods that occurred during 1982, 1990, and 1993.

Non-parametric data-based approach for the quantification and communication of uncertainties in river flood forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Steenbergen, N.; Willems, P.

2012-04-01

Reliable flood forecasts are the most important non-structural measures to reduce the impact of floods. However flood forecasting systems are subject to uncertainty originating from the input data, model structure and model parameters of the different hydraulic and hydrological submodels. To quantify this uncertainty a non-parametric data-based approach has been developed. This approach analyses the historical forecast residuals (differences between the predictions and the observations at river gauging stations) without using a predefined statistical error distribution. Because the residuals are correlated with the value of the forecasted water level and the lead time, the residuals are split up into discrete classes of simulated water levels and lead times. For each class, percentile values are calculated of the model residuals and stored in a 'three dimensional error' matrix. By 3D interpolation in this error matrix, the uncertainty in new forecasted water levels can be quantified. In addition to the quantification of the uncertainty, the communication of this uncertainty is equally important. The communication has to be done in a consistent way, reducing the chance of misinterpretation. Also, the communication needs to be adapted to the audience; the majority of the larger public is not interested in in-depth information on the uncertainty on the predicted water levels, but only is interested in information on the likelihood of exceedance of certain alarm levels. Water managers need more information, e.g. time dependent uncertainty information, because they rely on this information to undertake the appropriate flood mitigation action. There are various ways in presenting uncertainty information (numerical, linguistic, graphical, time (in)dependent, etc.) each with their advantages and disadvantages for a specific audience. A useful method to communicate uncertainty of flood forecasts is by probabilistic flood mapping. These maps give a representation of the probability of flooding of a certain area, based on the uncertainty assessment of the flood forecasts. By using this type of maps, water managers can focus their attention on the areas with the highest flood probability. Also the larger public can consult these maps for information on the probability of flooding for their specific location, such that they can take pro-active measures to reduce the personal damage. The method of quantifying the uncertainty was implemented in the operational flood forecasting system for the navigable rivers in the Flanders region of Belgium. The method has shown clear benefits during the floods of the last two years.

Flood Seasonality in a Changing Climate - A Comparison Between Northern Europe and Northeastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Dieppois, B.; Lawler, D.; Lyon, S. W.

2016-12-01

Fluvial flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. Concurrent with climate change flood seasonality in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, i.e. flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large-scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explored changes in flood seasonality across near-natural catchments in cold environments of the North Atlantic region (40 - 70° N) using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt-dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring (March through May), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows. Mean daily flows corroborate those findings with approximately 50% of the catchments showing significant changes. Comparing Scandinavia to North America the same trends could be detected with a stronger signal at the west coast of Scandinavia due to the Westerlies. Contrasting trends were detected for spring flows, for which North American catchments showed decreasing trends whereas increasing trends were observed across Scandinavia. Such changes in flood seasonality have clear implications for management strategies such as the estimation of design floods for flood prevention measures.

Assessment of the spatial scaling behaviour of floods in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria

2017-04-01

Floods are among the most dangerous natural hazards, causing loss of life and significant damage to private and public property. Regional flood-frequency analysis (FFA) methods are essential tools to assess the flood hazard and plan interventions for its mitigation. FFA methods are often based on the well-known index flood method that assumes the invariance of the coefficient of variation of floods with drainage area. This assumption is equivalent to the simple scaling or self-similarity assumption for peak floods, i.e. their spatial structure remains similar in a particular, relatively simple, way to itself over a range of scales. Spatial scaling of floods has been evaluated at national scale for different countries such as Canada, USA, and Australia. According our knowledge. Such a study has not been conducted for the United Kingdom even though the standard FFA method there is based on the index flood assumption. In this work we present an integrated approach to assess of the spatial scaling behaviour of floods in the United Kingdom using three different methods: product moments (PM), probability weighted moments (PWM), and quantile analysis (QA). We analyse both instantaneous and daily annual observed maximum floods and performed our analysis both across the entire country and in its sub-climatic regions as defined in the Flood Studies Report (NERC, 1975). To evaluate the relationship between the k-th moments or quantiles and the drainage area we used both regression with area alone and multiple regression considering other explanatory variables to account for the geomorphology, amount of rainfall, and soil type of the catchments. The latter multiple regression approach was only recently demonstrated being more robust than the traditional regression with area alone that can lead to biased estimates of scaling exponents and misinterpretation of spatial scaling behaviour. We tested our framework on almost 600 rural catchments in UK considered as entire region and split in 11 sub-regions with 50 catchments per region on average. Preliminary results from the three different spatial scaling methods are generally in agreement and indicate that: i) only some of the peak flow variability is explained by area alone (approximately 50% for the entire country and ranging between the 40% and 70% for the sub-regions); ii) this percentage increases to 90% for the entire country and ranges between 80% and 95% for the sub-regions when the multiple regression is used; iii) the simple scaling hypothesis holds in all sub-regions with the exception of weak multi-scaling found in the regions 2 (North), and 5 and 6 (South East). We hypothesize that these deviations can be explained by heterogeneity in large scale precipitation and by the influence of the soil type (predominantly chalk) on the flood formation process in regions 5 and 6.

Accumulation of as, pb, and cu associated with the recent sedimentary processes in the colorado delta, South of the United States-Mexico boundary.

PubMed

Daesslé, L W; Lugo-Ibarra, K C; Tobschall, H J; Melo, M; Gutiérrez-Galindo, E A; García-Hernández, J; Alvarez, L G

2009-05-01

Sediment cores from the Colorado River (CR) remnant delta were used to assess the changing sedimentation and pollutant deposition processes in response to extensive human manipulation of the river. The cores are formed of alternating layers of clays and silts, with isolated sandy horizons. The clayey units are interpreted as periods of flood flows into this low gradient and meandering estuary after dam construction in the United States. The geochemistry of these sediments is particular because of the association of MnO with CaO rather than with the Fe(2)O(3)-rich clays. Past pollution of the CR delta by As, and probably also Pb and Cu, is recorded in some cores. Enrichment factors (EFs) >1 for these elements and their statistical association suggest anthropogenic inputs. The most likely sources for these element enrichments (especially As) are the arsenate-based pesticides used intensively in the area during the first half of the 20th century. The transport of these elements from the nearby agricultural lands into the present river reaches appears to have been driven in part by flooding events of the CR. Flushing by river and tide flows appear to be responsible of a lower pollutant deposition in the CR compared to the adjacent Hardy River (HR). Arsenic in the buried clay units of the HR has concentrations above the probable toxic effect level (PEL) for dwelling organisms, with maximum concentrations of 30 microg g(-1). Excess (210)Pb activities ((210)Pb(xs)) indicate that fluxes of this unsupported atmospheric isotope were not constant in this estuarine environment. However, the presence of (210)Pb(xs) does indicate that these sediments accumulated during the last ~100 years. Aproximate sediment ages were estimated from the correlation of historic flooding events with the interpretation of the stratigraphic record. They are in fair agreement with the reported onset of DDT metabolites at the bottom of one core.

Low cost, multiscale and multi-sensor application for flooded area mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordan, Daniele; Notti, Davide; Villa, Alfredo; Zucca, Francesco; Calò, Fabiana; Pepe, Antonio; Dutto, Furio; Pari, Paolo; Baldo, Marco; Allasia, Paolo

2018-05-01

Flood mapping and estimation of the maximum water depth are essential elements for the first damage evaluation, civil protection intervention planning and detection of areas where remediation is needed. In this work, we present and discuss a methodology for mapping and quantifying flood severity over floodplains. The proposed methodology considers a multiscale and multi-sensor approach using free or low-cost data and sensors. We applied this method to the November 2016 Piedmont (northwestern Italy) flood. We first mapped the flooded areas at the basin scale using free satellite data from low- to medium-high-resolution from both the SAR (Sentinel-1, COSMO-Skymed) and multispectral sensors (MODIS, Sentinel-2). Using very- and ultra-high-resolution images from the low-cost aerial platform and remotely piloted aerial system, we refined the flooded zone and detected the most damaged sector. The presented method considers both urbanised and non-urbanised areas. Nadiral images have several limitations, in particular in urbanised areas, where the use of terrestrial images solved this limitation. Very- and ultra-high-resolution images were processed with structure from motion (SfM) for the realisation of 3-D models. These data, combined with an available digital terrain model, allowed us to obtain maps of the flooded area, maximum high water area and damaged infrastructures.

Estimation of peak discharge quantiles for selected annual exceedance probabilities in northeastern Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Over, Thomas M.; Saito, Riki J.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.; Soong, David T.; Ishii, Audrey L.

2016-06-28

This report provides two sets of equations for estimating peak discharge quantiles at annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 (recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively) for watersheds in Illinois based on annual maximum peak discharge data from 117 watersheds in and near northeastern Illinois. One set of equations was developed through a temporal analysis with a two-step least squares-quantile regression technique that measures the average effect of changes in the urbanization of the watersheds used in the study. The resulting equations can be used to adjust rural peak discharge quantiles for the effect of urbanization, and in this study the equations also were used to adjust the annual maximum peak discharges from the study watersheds to 2010 urbanization conditions.The other set of equations was developed by a spatial analysis. This analysis used generalized least-squares regression to fit the peak discharge quantiles computed from the urbanization-adjusted annual maximum peak discharges from the study watersheds to drainage-basin characteristics. The peak discharge quantiles were computed by using the Expected Moments Algorithm following the removal of potentially influential low floods defined by a multiple Grubbs-Beck test. To improve the quantile estimates, regional skew coefficients were obtained from a newly developed regional skew model in which the skew increases with the urbanized land use fraction. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the spatial analysis include drainage area, the fraction of developed land, the fraction of land with poorly drained soils or likely water, and the basin slope estimated as the ratio of the basin relief to basin perimeter.This report also provides the following: (1) examples to illustrate the use of the spatial and urbanization-adjustment equations for estimating peak discharge quantiles at ungaged sites and to improve flood-quantile estimates at and near a gaged site; (2) the urbanization-adjusted annual maximum peak discharges and peak discharge quantile estimates at streamgages from 181 watersheds including the 117 study watersheds and 64 additional watersheds in the study region that were originally considered for use in the study but later deemed to be redundant.The urbanization-adjustment equations, spatial regression equations, and peak discharge quantile estimates developed in this study will be made available in the web application StreamStats, which provides automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected stream locations. Figures and tables comparing the observed and urbanization-adjusted annual maximum peak discharge records by streamgage are provided at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20165050 for download.

Modeling Compound Flood Hazards in Coastal Embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, H.; Schubert, J. E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Luke, A.; Matthew, R.; Sanders, B. F.

2017-12-01

Coastal cities around the world are built on lowland topography adjacent to coastal embayments and river estuaries, where multiple factors threaten increasing flood hazards (e.g. sea level rise and river flooding). Quantitative risk assessment is required for administration of flood insurance programs and the design of cost-effective flood risk reduction measures. This demands a characterization of extreme water levels such as 100 and 500 year return period events. Furthermore, hydrodynamic flood models are routinely used to characterize localized flood level intensities (i.e., local depth and velocity) based on boundary forcing sampled from extreme value distributions. For example, extreme flood discharges in the U.S. are estimated from measured flood peaks using the Log-Pearson Type III distribution. However, configuring hydrodynamic models for coastal embayments is challenging because of compound extreme flood events: events caused by a combination of extreme sea levels, extreme river discharges, and possibly other factors such as extreme waves and precipitation causing pluvial flooding in urban developments. Here, we present an approach for flood risk assessment that coordinates multivariate extreme analysis with hydrodynamic modeling of coastal embayments. First, we evaluate the significance of correlation structure between terrestrial freshwater inflow and oceanic variables; second, this correlation structure is described using copula functions in unit joint probability domain; and third, we choose a series of compound design scenarios for hydrodynamic modeling based on their occurrence likelihood. The design scenarios include the most likely compound event (with the highest joint probability density), preferred marginal scenario and reproduced time series of ensembles based on Monte Carlo sampling of bivariate hazard domain. The comparison between resulting extreme water dynamics under the compound hazard scenarios explained above provides an insight to the strengths/weaknesses of each approach and helps modelers choose the appropriate scenario that best fit to the needs of their project. The proposed risk assessment approach can help flood hazard modeling practitioners achieve a more reliable estimate of risk, by cautiously reducing the dimensionality of the hazard analysis.

Post-fire, rainfall intensity-peak discharge relations for three mountainous watersheds in the Western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moody, J.A.; Martin, D.A.

2001-01-01

Wildfire alters the hydrologic response of watersheds, including the peak discharges resulting from subsequent rainfall. Improving predictions of the magnitude of flooding that follows wildfire is needed because of the increase in human population at risk in the wildland-urban interface. Because this wildland-urban interface is typically in mountainous terrain, we investigated rainfall-runoff relations by measuring the maximum 30 min rainfall intensity and the unit-area peak discharge (peak discharge divided by the area burned) in three mountainous watersheds (17-26.8 km2) after a wildfire. We found rainfall-runoff relations that relate the unit-area peak discharges to the maximum 30 min rainfall intensities by a power law. These rainfall-runoff relations appear to have a threshold value for the maximum 30 min rainfall intensity (around 10 mm h-1) such that, above this threshold, the magnitude of the flood peaks increases more rapidly with increases in intensity. This rainfall intensity could be used to set threshold limits in rain gauges that are part of an early-warning flood system after wildfire. The maximum unit-area peak discharges from these three burned watersheds ranged from 3.2 to 50 m3 s-1 km-2. These values could provide initial estimates of the upper limits of runoff that can be used to predict floods after wildfires in mountainous terrain. Published in 2001 by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

46 CFR 170.173 - Criterion for vessels of unusual proportion and form.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... routes, there must be— (i) Positive righting arms to at least 35 degrees of heel; (ii) No down flooding... following angles: (A) Angle of maximum righting arm. (B) Angle of down flooding. (C) 40 degrees. (2) For... flooding point to at least 15 degrees; and (iii) At least 10 foot-degrees of energy to the smallest of the...

46 CFR 170.173 - Criterion for vessels of unusual proportion and form.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... routes, there must be— (i) Positive righting arms to at least 35 degrees of heel; (ii) No down flooding... following angles: (A) Angle of maximum righting arm. (B) Angle of down flooding. (C) 40 degrees. (2) For... flooding point to at least 15 degrees; and (iii) At least 10 foot-degrees of energy to the smallest of the...

46 CFR 170.173 - Criterion for vessels of unusual proportion and form.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... routes, there must be— (i) Positive righting arms to at least 35 degrees of heel; (ii) No down flooding... following angles: (A) Angle of maximum righting arm. (B) Angle of down flooding. (C) 40 degrees. (2) For... flooding point to at least 15 degrees; and (iii) At least 10 foot-degrees of energy to the smallest of the...

Modeling urban flood risk territories for Riga city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piliksere, A.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.; Bethers, U.; Bethers, P.; Valainis, A.

2012-04-01

Riga, the capital of Latvia, is located on River Daugava at the Gulf of Riga. The main flooding risks of Riga city are: (1) storm caused water setup in South part of Gulf of Riga (storm event), (2) water level increase caused by Daugava River discharge maximums (spring snow melting event) and (3) strong rainfall or rapid snow melting in densely populated urban areas. The first two flooding factors were discussed previously (Piliksere et al, 2011). The aims of the study were (1) the identification of the flood risk situations in densely populated areas, (2) the quantification of the flooding scenarios caused by rain and snow melting events of different return periods nowadays, in the near future (2021-2050), far future (2071-2100) taking into account the projections of climate change, (3) estimation of groundwater level for Riga city, (4) the building and calibration of the hydrological mathematical model based on SWMM (EPA, 2004) for the domain potentially vulnerable for rain and snow melt flooding events, (5) the calculation of rain and snow melting flood events with different return periods, (6) mapping the potentially flooded areas on a fine grid. The time series of short term precipitation events during warm time period of year (id est. rain events) were analyzed for 35 year long time period. Annual maxima of precipitation intensity for events with different duration (5 min; 15 min; 1h; 3h; 6h; 12h; 1 day; 2 days; 4 days; 10 days) were calculated. The time series of long term simultaneous precipitation data and observations of the reduction of thickness of snow cover were analyzed for 27 year long time period. Snow thawing periods were detected and maximum of snow melting intensity for events with different intensity (1day; 2 days; 4 days; 7 days; 10 days) were calculated. According to the occurrence probability six scenarios for each event for nowadays, near and far future with return period once in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 years were constructed based on the Gumbell extreme value analysis. The hydrological modelling driven by the temperature and precipitation data series from regional climate models were used for evaluation of rain event maximums in the future periods. The usage of the climate model data in hydrological models causes systematic errors; therefore the bias correction method (Sennikovs, Bethers, 2009) was applied for determination of the future rainfall intensities. SWMM model was built for the urban area. Objects of hydraulic importance (manifold, penstock, ditch, pumping station, weir, well, catchment sub-basin etc.) were included in the model. There exist pure rain sewage system and mixed rain-water/household sewage system in Riga. Sewage system with wastewater load proportional to population density was taken account and calibrated. Model system was calibrated for a real rain event against the water flux time series into sewage treatment plant of Riga. High resolution (~1.5 points per square meter) digital terrain map was used as the base for finite element mesh for the geospatial mapping of results of hydraulic calculations. Main results of study are (1) detection of the hot spots of densely populated urban areas; (2) identification of the weak chains of the melioration and sewage systems; (3) mapping the elevation of ground water mainly caused by snow melting. A.Piliksere, A.Valainis, J.Seņņikovs, (2011), A flood risk assessment for Riga city taking account climate changes, EGU, Vienna, Austria. EPA, (2004), Storm water management model. User's manual version 5.0. US Environmental Protection Agency J.Sennikovs, U.Bethers, (2009), Statistical downscaling method of regional climate model results for hydrological modelling. 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia.

Challenges of Modeling Flood Risk at Large Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guin, J.; Simic, M.; Rowe, J.

2009-04-01

Flood risk management is a major concern for many nations and for the insurance sector in places where this peril is insured. A prerequisite for risk management, whether in the public sector or in the private sector is an accurate estimation of the risk. Mitigation measures and traditional flood management techniques are most successful when the problem is viewed at a large regional scale such that all inter-dependencies in a river network are well understood. From an insurance perspective the jury is still out there on whether flood is an insurable peril. However, with advances in modeling techniques and computer power it is possible to develop models that allow proper risk quantification at the scale suitable for a viable insurance market for flood peril. In order to serve the insurance market a model has to be event-simulation based and has to provide financial risk estimation that forms the basis for risk pricing, risk transfer and risk management at all levels of insurance industry at large. In short, for a collection of properties, henceforth referred to as a portfolio, the critical output of the model is an annual probability distribution of economic losses from a single flood occurrence (flood event) or from an aggregation of all events in any given year. In this paper, the challenges of developing such a model are discussed in the context of Great Britain for which a model has been developed. The model comprises of several, physically motivated components so that the primary attributes of the phenomenon are accounted for. The first component, the rainfall generator simulates a continuous series of rainfall events in space and time over thousands of years, which are physically realistic while maintaining the statistical properties of rainfall at all locations over the model domain. A physically based runoff generation module feeds all the rivers in Great Britain, whose total length of stream links amounts to about 60,000 km. A dynamical flow routing algorithm propagates the flows for each simulated event. The model incorporates a digital terrain model (DTM) at 10m horizontal resolution, which is used to extract flood plain cross-sections such that a one-dimensional hydraulic model can be used to estimate extent and elevation of flooding. In doing so the effect of flood defenses in mitigating floods are accounted for. Finally a suite of vulnerability relationships have been developed to estimate flood losses for a portfolio of properties that are exposed to flood hazard. Historical experience indicates that a for recent floods in Great Britain more than 50% of insurance claims occur outside the flood plain and these are primarily a result of excess surface flow, hillside flooding, flooding due to inadequate drainage. A sub-component of the model addresses this issue by considering several parameters that best explain the variability of claims off the flood plain. The challenges of modeling such a complex phenomenon at a large scale largely dictate the choice of modeling approaches that need to be adopted for each of these model components. While detailed numerically-based physical models exist and have been used for conducting flood hazard studies, they are generally restricted to small geographic regions. In a probabilistic risk estimation framework like our current model, a blend of deterministic and statistical techniques have to be employed such that each model component is independent, physically sound and is able to maintain the statistical properties of observed historical data. This is particularly important because of the highly non-linear behavior of the flooding process. With respect to vulnerability modeling, both on and off the flood plain, the challenges include the appropriate scaling of a damage relationship when applied to a portfolio of properties. This arises from the fact that the estimated hazard parameter used for damage assessment, namely maximum flood depth has considerable uncertainty. The uncertainty can be attributed to various sources among which are imperfections in the hazard modeling, inherent errors in the DTM, lack of accurate information on the properties that are being analyzed, imperfections in the vulnerability relationships, inability of the model to account for local mitigation measures that are usually undertaken when a real event is unfolding and lack of details in the claims data that are used for model calibration. Nevertheless, the model once calibrated provides a very robust framework for analyzing relative and absolute risk. The paper concludes with key economic statistics of flood risk for Great Britain as a whole including certain large loss-causing scenarios affecting the greater London region. The model estimates a total financial loss of 5.6 billion GBP to all properties at a 1% annual aggregate exceedance probability level.

Effects of extreme floods on macroinvertebrate assemblages in tributaries to the Mohawk River, New York, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Calderon, Mirian R.; Baldigo, Barry P.; Smith, Alexander J.; Endreny, Theodore A.

2017-01-01

Climate change is forecast to bring more frequent and intense precipitation to New York which has motivated research into the effects of floods on stream ecosystems. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were sampled at 13 sites in the Mohawk River basin during August 2011, and again in October 2011, following historic floods caused by remnants of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. The annual exceedance probabilities of floods at regional flow-monitoring sites ranged from 0.5 to 0.001. Data from the first 2 surveys, and from additional surveys done during July and October 2014, were assessed to characterize the severity of flood impacts, effect of seasonality, and recovery. Indices of total taxa richness; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness; Hilsenhoff's biotic index; per cent model affinity; and nutrient biotic index-phosphorus were combined to calculate New York State Biological Assessment Profile scores. Analysis of variance tests were used to determine if the Biological Assessment Profile, its component metrics, relative abundance, and diversity differed significantly (p ≤ .05) among the four surveys. Only total taxa richness and Shannon–Wiener diversity increased significantly, and abundance decreased significantly, following the floods. No metrics differed significantly between the July and August 2014 surveys which indicates that the differences denoted between the August and October 2011 surveys were caused by the floods. Changes in taxa richness, EPT richness, and diversity were significantly correlated with flood annual exceedance probabilities. This study increased our understanding of the resistance and resilience of benthic macroinvertebrate communities by showing that their assemblages were relatively impervious to extreme floods across the region.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges for streams in Iowa, based on data through water year 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.; Barnes, Kimberlee K.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2013-01-01

A statewide study was performed to develop regional regression equations for estimating selected annual exceedance-probability statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders. Annual exceedance-probability estimates were computed for 518 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data through 2010. The estimation of the selected statistics included a Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least-squares regression analysis to update regional skew coefficients for the 518 streamgages. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low flows. Also, geographic information system software was used to measure 59 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for each flood region in Iowa for estimating discharges for ungaged stream sites with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. A total of 394 streamgages were included in the development of regional regression equations for three flood regions (regions 1, 2, and 3) that were defined for Iowa based on landform regions and soil regions. Average standard errors of prediction range from 31.8 to 45.2 percent for flood region 1, 19.4 to 46.8 percent for flood region 2, and 26.5 to 43.1 percent for flood region 3. The pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized least-squares equations range from 90.8 to 96.2 percent for flood region 1, 91.5 to 97.9 percent for flood region 2, and 92.4 to 96.0 percent for flood region 3. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites in Iowa with flows not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization and with basin characteristics within the range of those used to develop the equations. These regression equations will be implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats Web-based geographic information system tool. StreamStats allows users to click on any ungaged site on a river and compute estimates of the eight selected statistics; in addition, 90-percent prediction intervals and the measured basin characteristics for the ungaged sites also are provided by the Web-based tool. StreamStats also allows users to click on any streamgage in Iowa and estimates computed for these eight selected statistics are provided for the streamgage.

Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

2017-05-01

The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. In this paper we present and evaluate a method to create deterministic and probabilistic flood maps from Twitter messages that mention locations of flooding. A deterministic flood map created for the December 2015 flood in the city of York (UK) showed good performance (F(2) = 0.69; a statistic ranging from 0 to 1, with 1 expressing a perfect fit with validation data). The probabilistic flood maps we created showed that, in the York case study, the uncertainty in flood extent was mainly induced by errors in the precise locations of flood observations as derived from Twitter data. Errors in the terrain elevation data or in the parameters of the applied algorithm contributed less to flood extent uncertainty. Although these maps tended to overestimate the actual probability of flooding, they gave a reasonable representation of flood extent uncertainty in the area. This study illustrates that inherently uncertain data from social media can be used to derive information about flooding.

Flood Frequency Analysis using different flood descriptors - the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamuz, Emilia; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Romanowicz, Renata

2014-05-01

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is customarily performed using annual maximum flows. However, there is a number of different flood descriptors that could be used. Among them are water levels, peaks over the threshold, flood-wave duration, flood volume, etc. In this study we compare different approaches to FFA for their suitability for flood risk assessment. The main goal is to obtain the FFA curve with the smallest possible uncertainty limits, in particular for the distribution tail. The extrapolation of FFA curves is crucial in future flood risk assessment in a changing climate. We compare the FFA curves together with their uncertainty limits obtained using flows, water levels, flood inundation area and volumes for the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula. Moreover, we derive the FFA curves obtained using simulated flows. The results are used to derive the error distribution for the maximum simulated and observed values under different modelling techniques and assess its influence on flood risk predictions for ungauged catchments. MIKE11, HEC-RAS and transfer function model are applied in average and extreme conditions to model flow propagation in the Warsaw Vistula reach. The additional questions we want to answer are what is the range of application of different modelling tools under various flow conditions and how can the uncertainty of flood risk assessment be decreased. This work was partly supported by the projects "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)" and "Modern statistical models for analysis of flood frequency and features of flood waves", carried by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences on the order of the National Science Centre (contracts Nos. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866 and 2012/05/B/ST10/00482, respectively). The water level and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

Flood Water Level Mapping and Prediction Due to Dam Failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musa, S.; Adnan, M. S.; Ahmad, N. A.; Ayob, S.

2016-07-01

Sembrong dam has undergone overflow failure. Flooding has been reported to hit the town, covering an area of up to Parit Raja, located in the district of Batu Pahat. This study aims to identify the areas that will be affected by flood in the event of a dam failure in Sembrong Dam, Kluang, Johor at a maximum level. To grasp the extent, the flood inundation maps have been generated by using the InfoWorks ICM and GIS software. By using these maps, information such as the depth and extent of floods can be identified the main ares flooded. The flood map was created starting with the collection of relevant data such as measuring the depth of the river and a maximum flow rate for Sembrong Dam. The data were obtained from the Drainage and Irrigation Department Malaysia and the Department of Survey and Mapping and HLA Associates Sdn. Bhd. Then, the data were analyzed according to the established Info Works ICM method. The results found that the flooded area were listed at Sri Lalang, Parit Sagil, Parit Sonto, Sri Paya, Parit Raja, Parit Sempadan, Talang Bunut, Asam Bubok, Tanjung Sembrong, Sungai Rambut and Parit Haji Talib. Flood depth obtained for the related area started from 0.5 m up to 1.2 m. As a conclusion, the flood emanating from this study include the area around the town of Ayer Hitam up to Parit Raja approximately of more than 20 km distance. This may give bad implication to residents around these areas. In future studies, other rivers such as Sungai Batu Pahat should be considered for this study to predict and reduce the yearly flood victims for this area.

Assessing changes in failure probability of dams in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; AghaKouchak, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Ragno, E.

2017-12-01

Dams are crucial infrastructures and provide resilience against hydrometeorological extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). In 2017, California experienced series of flooding events terminating a 5-year drought, and leading to incidents such as structural failure of Oroville Dam's spillway. Because of large socioeconomic repercussions of such incidents, it is of paramount importance to evaluate dam failure risks associated with projected shifts in the streamflow regime. This becomes even more important as the current procedures for design of hydraulic structures (e.g., dams, bridges, spillways) are based on the so-called stationary assumption. Yet, changes in climate are anticipated to result in changes in statistics of river flow (e.g., more extreme floods) and possibly increasing the failure probability of already aging dams. Here, we examine changes in discharge under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In this study, we used routed daily streamflow data from ten global climate models (GCMs) in order to investigate possible climate-induced changes in streamflow in northern California. Our results show that while the average flow does not show a significant change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the future. Using the extreme value theory, we estimate changes in the return periods of 50-year and 100-year floods in the current and future climates. Finally, we use the historical and future return periods to quantify changes in failure probability of dams in a warming climate.

Comparison of Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Maps Based on Historical Storms and Statistically Modeled Storm Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Sheng, Y.; Condon, A. J.; Paramygin, V. A.; Hall, T.

2012-12-01

A cost effective method, JPM-OS (Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling), for determining storm response and inundation return frequencies was developed and applied to quantify the hazard of hurricane storm surges and inundation along the Southwest FL,US coast (Condon and Sheng 2012). The JPM-OS uses piecewise multivariate regression splines coupled with dimension adaptive sparse grids to enable the generation of a base flood elevation (BFE) map. Storms are characterized by their landfall characteristics (pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, forward speed, heading, and landfall location) and a sparse grid algorithm determines the optimal set of storm parameter combinations so that the inundation from any other storm parameter combination can be determined. The end result is a sample of a few hundred (197 for SW FL) optimal storms which are simulated using a dynamically coupled storm surge / wave modeling system CH3D-SSMS (Sheng et al. 2010). The limited historical climatology (1940 - 2009) is explored to develop probabilistic characterizations of the five storm parameters. The probability distributions are discretized and the inundation response of all parameter combinations is determined by the interpolation in five-dimensional space of the optimal storms. The surge response and the associated joint probability of the parameter combination is used to determine the flood elevation with a 1% annual probability of occurrence. The limited historical data constrains the accuracy of the PDFs of the hurricane characteristics, which in turn affect the accuracy of the BFE maps calculated. To offset the deficiency of limited historical dataset, this study presents a different method for producing coastal inundation maps. Instead of using the historical storm data, here we adopt 33,731 tracks that can represent the storm climatology in North Atlantic basin and SW Florida coasts. This large quantity of hurricane tracks is generated from a new statistical model which had been used for Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (Hall 2011) as well as North Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis (Hall and Jewson 2007). The introduction of these tracks complements the shortage of the historical samples and allows for more reliable PDFs required for implementation of JPM-OS. Using the 33,731 tracks and JPM-OS, an optimal storm ensemble is determined. This approach results in different storms/winds for storm surge and inundation modeling, and produces different Base Flood Elevation maps for coastal regions. Coastal inundation maps produced by the two different methods will be discussed in detail in the poster paper.

Applications of flood depth from rapid post-event footprint generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, Naomi; Millinship, Ian

2015-04-01

Immediately following large flood events, an indication of the area flooded (i.e. the flood footprint) can be extremely useful for evaluating potential impacts on exposed property and infrastructure. Specifically, such information can help insurance companies estimate overall potential losses, deploy claims adjusters and ultimately assists the timely payment of due compensation to the public. Developing these datasets from remotely sensed products seems like an obvious choice. However, there are a number of important drawbacks which limit their utility in the context of flood risk studies. For example, external agencies have no control over the region that is surveyed, the time at which it is surveyed (which is important as the maximum extent would ideally be captured), and how freely accessible the outputs are. Moreover, the spatial resolution of these datasets can be low, and considerable uncertainties in the flood extents exist where dry surfaces give similar return signals to water. Most importantly of all, flood depths are required to estimate potential damages, but generally cannot be estimated from satellite imagery alone. In response to these problems, we have developed an alternative methodology for developing high-resolution footprints of maximum flood extent which do contain depth information. For a particular event, once reports of heavy rainfall are received, we begin monitoring real-time flow data and extracting peak values across affected areas. Next, using statistical extreme value analyses of historic flow records at the same measured locations, the return periods of the maximum event flow at each gauged location are estimated. These return periods are then interpolated along each river and matched to JBA's high-resolution hazard maps, which already exist for a series of design return periods. The extent and depth of flooding associated with the event flow is extracted from the hazard maps to create a flood footprint. Georeferenced ground, aerial and satellite images are used to establish defence integrity, highlight breach locations and validate our footprint. We have implemented this method to create seven flood footprints, including river flooding in central Europe and coastal flooding associated with Storm Xaver in the UK (both in 2013). The inclusion of depth information allows damages to be simulated and compared to actual damage and resultant loss which become available after the event. In this way, we can evaluate depth-damage functions used in catastrophe models and reduce their associated uncertainty. In further studies, the depth data could be used at an individual property level to calibrate property type specific depth-damage functions.

Derived distribution of floods based on the concept of partial area coverage with a climatic appeal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iacobellis, Vito; Fiorentino, Mauro

2000-02-01

A new rationale for deriving the probability distribution of floods and help in understanding the physical processes underlying the distribution itself is presented. On the basis of this a model that presents a number of new assumptions is developed. The basic ideas are as follows: (1) The peak direct streamflow Q can always be expressed as the product of two random variates, namely, the average runoff per unit area ua and the peak contributing area a; (2) the distribution of ua conditional on a can be related to that of the rainfall depth occurring in a duration equal to a characteristic response time тa of the contributing part of the basin; and (3) тa is assumed to vary with a according to a power law. Consequently, the probability density function of Q can be found as the integral, over the total basin area A of that of a times the density function of ua given a. It is suggested that ua can be expressed as a fraction of the excess rainfall and that the annual flood distribution can be related to that of Q by the hypothesis that the flood occurrence process is Poissonian. In the proposed model it is assumed, as an exploratory attempt, that a and ua are gamma and Weibull distributed, respectively. The model was applied to the annual flood series of eight gauged basins in Basilicata (southern Italy) with catchment areas ranging from 40 to 1600 km2. The results showed strong physical consistence as the parameters tended to assume values in good agreement with well-consolidated geomorphologic knowledge and suggested a new key to understanding the climatic control of the probability distribution of floods.

Flood-inundation maps and updated components for a flood-warning system or the City of Marietta, Ohio and selected communities along the Lower Muskingum River and Ohio River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitehead, Matthew T.; Ostheimer, Chad J.

2014-01-01

Flood profiles for selected reaches were prepared by calibrating steady-state step-backwater models to selected streamgage rating curves. The step-backwater models were used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for up to 12 flood stages at a streamgage with corresponding stream-flows ranging from approximately the 10- to 0.2-percent chance annual-exceedance probabilities for each of the 3 streamgages that correspond to the flood-inundation maps. Additional hydraulic modeling was used to account for the effects of backwater from the Ohio River on water levels in the Muskingum River. The computed longitudinal profiles of flood levels were used with a Geographic Information System digital elevation model (derived from light detection and ranging) to delineate flood-inundation areas. Digital maps showing flood-inundation areas overlain on digital orthophotographs were prepared for the selected floods.

Methods for Estimating Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in Rural Basins in the Southeastern United States: South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2009-01-01

For more than 50 years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing regional regression equations that can be used to estimate flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. Flood magnitude relates to the volume of flow that occurs over some period of time and usually is presented in cubic feet per second. Flood frequency relates to the probability of occurrence of a flood; that is, on average, what is the likelihood that a flood with a specified magnitude will occur in any given year (1 percent chance, 10 percent chance, 50 percent chance, and so on). Such flood estimates are needed for the efficient design of bridges, highway embankments, levees, and other structures near streams. In addition, these estimates are needed for the effective planning and management of land and water resources, to protect lives and property in flood-prone areas, and to determine flood-insurance rates.

Flash floods of August 10, 2009, in the Villages of Gowanda and Silver Creek, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Szabo, Carolyn O.; Coon, William F.; Niziol, Thomas A.

2011-01-01

Late during the night of August 9, 2009, two storm systems intersected over western New York and produced torrential rain that caused severe flash flooding during the early morning hours of August 10 in parts of Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, and Erie Counties. Nearly 6 inches of rain fell in 1.5 hours as recorded by a National Weather Service weather observer in Perrysburg, which lies between Gowanda and Silver Creek-the communities that suffered the most damage. This storm intensity had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.2 percent (recurrence interval greater than 500 years). Although flooding along Cattaraugus Creek occurred elsewhere, Cattaraugus Creek was responsible for very little flooding in Gowanda. Rather the small tributaries, Thatcher Brook and Grannis Brook, caused the flooding in Gowanda, as did Silver Creek and Walnut Creek in the Village of Silver Creek. Damages from the flooding were widespread. Numerous road culverts were washed out, and more than one-quarter of the roads in Cattaraugus County were damaged. Many people were evacuated or rescued in Gowanda and Silver Creek, and two deaths occurred during the flood in Gowanda. The water supplies of both communities were compromised by damages to village reservoirs and water-transmission infrastructures. Water and mud damage to residential and commercial properties was extensive. The tri-county area was declared a Federal disaster area and more than $45 million in Federal disaster assistance was distributed to more than 1,500 individuals and an estimated 1,100 public projects. The combined total estimate of damages from the flash floods was greater than $90 million. Over 240 high-water marks were surveyed by the U.S. Geological Survey; a subset of these marks was used to create flood-water-surface profiles for four streams and to delineate the areal extent of flooding in Gowanda and Silver Creek. Flood elevations exceeded previously defined 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (500-year recurrence interval) elevations by 2 to 4 feet in Gowanda and as much as 6 to 8 feet in Silver Creek. Most of the high-water marks were used in indirect hydraulic computations to estimate peak flows for four streams. The peak flows in Grannis Brook and Thatcher Brook were computed, using the slope-area method, to be 1,400 and 7,600 cubic feet per second, respectively, and peak flow in Silver Creek was computed, using the width-contraction method, to be 19,500 cubic feet per second. The annual exceedance probabilities for flows in these and other basins with small drainage areas that fell almost entirely within the area of heaviest precipitation were less than 0.2 percent (or recurrence intervals greater than 500 years). The peak flow in Cattaraugus Creek at Gowanda was computed, using the slope-area method, to be 33,200 cubic feet per second with an annual exceedance probability of 2.2 percent (recurrence interval of 45 years).

Flood of May 5 and 6, 1981, Mobile, Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ming, C.O.; Nelson, G.H.

1981-01-01

Heavy and intense rainfall in the late evening and early morning hours, May 5 and 6, 1981, caused widespread flooding along streams and low-lying areas in the port city of Mobile, Ala. More than 12 inches of rain fell between 6 p.m. May 5, and 3 a.m. May 6. Damage caused by flooding was estimated by the Mobile Department of Public Works to be millions of dollars. Maximum water surface elevations on streams in the area were 2 to 3 feet higher than those that occurred during a similar flood in April 1980. The approximate extent of flooding delineated on maps using flood profiles obtained by field surveys will provide a basis for formulating effective flood plain zoning that could minimize existing and future flood problems. (USGS)

100-Year flood–it's all about chance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Dinicola, Karen

2010-01-01

In the 1960's, the United States government decided to use the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood as the basis for the National Flood Insurance Program. The 1-percent AEP flood was thought to be a fair balance between protecting the public and overly stringent regulation. Because the 1-percent AEP flood has a 1 in 100 chance of being equaled or exceeded in any 1 year, and it has an average recurrence interval of 100 years, it often is referred to as the '100-year flood'. The term '100-year flood' is part of the national lexicon, but is often a source of confusion by those not familiar with flood science and statistics. This poster is an attempt to explain the concept, probabilistic nature, and inherent uncertainties of the '100-year flood' to the layman.

Floods of July 23-26, 2010, in the Little Maquoketa River and Maquoketa River Basins, Northeast Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.

2012-01-01

Minor flooding occurred July 23, 2010, in the Little Maquoketa River Basin and major flooding occurred July 23–26, 2010, in the Maquoketa River Basin in northeast Iowa following severe thunderstorm activity over the region during July 22–24. A breach of the Lake Delhi Dam on July 24 aggravated flooding on the Maquoketa River. Rain gages at Manchester and Strawberry Point, Iowa, recorded 72-hour-rainfall amounts of 7.33 and 12.23 inches, respectively, on July 24. The majority of the rainfall occurred during a 48-hour period. Within the Little Maquoketa River Basin, a peak-discharge estimate of 19,000 cubic feet per second (annual flood-probability estimate of 4 to 10 percent) at the discontinued 05414500 Little Maquoketa River near Durango, Iowa streamgage on July 23 is the sixth largest flood on record. Within the Maquoketa River Basin, peak discharges of 26,600 cubic feet per second (annual flood-probability estimate of 0.2 to 1 percent) at the 05416900 Maquoketa River at Manchester, Iowa streamgage on July 24, and of 25,000 cubic feet per second (annual flood-probability estimate of 1 to 2 percent) at the 05418400 North Fork Maquoketa River near Fulton, Iowa streamgage on July 24 are the largest floods on record for these sites. A peak discharge affected by the Lake Delhi Dam breach on July 24 at the 05418500 Maquoketa River near Maquoketa, Iowa streamgage, located downstream of Lake Delhi, of 46,000 cubic feet per second on July 26 is the third highest on record. High-water marks were measured at five locations along the Little Maquoketa and North Fork Little Maquoketa Rivers between U.S. Highway 52 near Dubuque and County Road Y21 near Rickardsville, a distance of 19 river miles. Highwater marks were measured at 28 locations along the Maquoketa River between U.S. Highway 52 near Green Island and State Highway 187 near Arlington, a distance of 142 river miles. High-water marks were measured at 13 locations along the North Fork Maquoketa River between Rockdale Road near Maquoketa and U.S. Highway 52 near Luxemburg, a distance of 90 river miles. The high-water marks were used to develop flood profiles for the Little Maquoketa, North Fork Little Maquoketa, Maquoketa, and North Fork Maquoketa Rivers.

Flood profiles in the Calapooya Creek basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friday, John

1982-01-01

Water-surface profiles were computed for a 19.4-mile reach of Calapooya Creek in Douglas County, Oregon. The data will enable the county to evaluate flood hazards in the floodprone areas in the reach. Profiles for floods having recurrence intervals of 2, 10, 50, 100, and 500 years are shown in graphic and tabular form. A floodway, allowing encroachment of the 100-year floods, was designed with a maximum 1.0-foot surcharge limitation. A profile for a flood that occurred in November 1961 is also presented. All data were derived from a digital computer model developed for the study.

Flood resilience and uncertainty in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beven, K.; Leedal, D.; Neal, J.; Bates, P.; Hunter, N.; Lamb, R.; Keef, C.

2012-04-01

Flood risk assessments do not normally take account of the uncertainty in assessing flood risk. There is no requirement in the EU Floods Directive to do so. But given the generally short series (and potential non-stationarity) of flood discharges, the extrapolation to smaller exceedance potentials may be highly uncertain. This means that flood risk mapping may also be highly uncertainty, with additional uncertainties introduced by the representation of flood plain and channel geometry, conveyance and infrastructure. This suggests that decisions about flood plain management should be based on exceedance probability of risk rather than the deterministic hazard maps that are common in most EU countries. Some examples are given from 2 case studies in the UK where a framework for good practice in assessing uncertainty in flood risk mapping has been produced as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium and Catchment Change Network Projects. This framework provides a structure for the communication and audit of assumptions about uncertainties.

Floods in the Canadian and Pecos River Basins of New Mexico, May and June 1937, with summary of flood discharges in New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalrymple, Tate

1939-01-01

In May and June floods occurred in the Canadian and Pecos River Basins of New Mexico that were unusually high and in many places were record breaking. The floods were caused by heavy rains that occurred over the eastern part of the State from May 23 to June 4 in a series of intense and intermittent storms. During these storms of the cloudburst type as much as 12 inches of rain fell in the 13-day period, and a fall of 7 inches in 2 hours and 40 minutes was reported from the vicinity of Clayton. Heavy rains also fell in the mountainous region west of Roswell, amounting to as much as l0 inches at some places. Much of the region that had excessive rainfall is relatively flat and has no well-defined drainage system. From these areas there was very little run-off and practically no water was contributed to the major streams. Hail fell at many places in eastern New Mexico, causing damage to crops, livestock, and other property. Hail fell somewhere in the Canadian and Pecos River Basins almost every day during the storm period, but the duration of the fall was generally short. The largest hailstones were reported from Clayton, where one stone measured 8 inches in circumference and weighed 9 ounces; at Centerville, where reports state that some stones were 9 to 10 inches in circumference; and near Roswell, where it was reported that six stones would fill a gallon bucket. The Canadian River flood reached a peak at Logan of 110,000 second-feet, which has been exceeded in this century only by the floods of 1904, 1909, and 1914. The total run-off at Logan for the flood period has been computed as 653,800 acre-feet. At Santa Rosa the Pecos River reached a maximum discharge of 88,200 second-feet, which is greater than any previously recorded. This flood was partly stored in the Alamogordo Reservoir; the peak below the reservoir was only 25,200 second-feet. The Pecos River flood at Roswell reached a maximum discharge of more than 80,000 second-feet. This water came mostly from tributaries that have .their sources in the mountainous area west of Roswell. The Cienaga del Macho, ordinarily a small dry creek, discharged about 49,800 second-feet at its peak. The Rio Hondo experienced several flood peaks, the largest at Roswell probably being near 20,000 second-feet. Berrendo Creek, which enters the Rio Hondo near Roswell, had a computed peak discharge of 37,700 second-feet. Roswell was subjected to several floods that inundated large areas of the town. Considerable damage was done by the water, which covered nearly all the area occupied by the town. Lake McMillan, an artificial reservoir on the Pecos River about 12 miles above Carlsbad, was put to a severe strain by the large quantity of water passing through it, but no serious damage resulted. The capacity of the lake at spillway level is about 39,000 acre-feet, but at the peak of the flood the lake held about 86,000 acre-feet. The total quantity of water passing through the lake during the flood period was more than 440,000 acre-feet. This report presents data pertinent to the floods of May and June 1937, including results of peak discharge determinations made at about 14 miscellaneous places, records of peak stages and discharges and of mean daily discharges during the flood period at 23 regular river-measurement stations, records of rainfall at about 190 places, an isohyetal map showing rainfall over the entire State and two isohyetal maps showing rainfall over the Canadian and Pecos River Basins, and a discussion of the weather conditions during the flood period, including an upper-air wind and pressure chart of the United States for May 28, 1937. In addition to the information listed above the report includes a summary of records of past floods at all places in New Mexico at which authentic records were available.

Postponing the production of ant domatia as a strategy promoting an escape from flooding in an Amazonian myrmecophyte.

PubMed

Izzo, Thiago J; Fernandez Piedade, Maria Teresa; Dáttilo, Wesley

2018-06-07

Even when adapted to flooding environments, the spatial distribution, growing strategies and anti-herbivore defences of plants face stressful conditions. Here we describe the effects of flooding on carbon allocation on growth, domatia and leaf production, and the herbivory on the myrmecophyte domatia-bearing Tococa coronata Benth. (Melastomataceae) growing along river banks in the Amazon region. In an area of 80 000 m2 of riparian forest along the Juruena River we actively searched for individuals of T. coronata. In each plant we evaluated the size of the plant when producing the first domatium and determined its best predictor: (1) plant total height; (2) size of plants above flood level; or (3) length of time each plant spent underwater. We also compared the herbivory, internode elongation, foliar asymmetry and specific leaf weight between T. coronata individuals growing above and below the maximum flooding level. The distance to the river and the height of the first domatium produced were compared between T. coronata and its sympatric congener, T. bulifera. We found that T. coronata invests in rapid growth in the early ontogenetic stages through an elongation of internodes rather than in constitutive anti-herbivore defences to leaves or domatia to exceed the maximum flooding level. Consequently, its leaf herbivory was higher when compared with those produced above the flooding level. Individuals with leaves above flood levels produce coriaceous leaves and ant-domatias. Thus, flooding seems to trigger changes in growth strategies of the species. Furthermore, T. coronata occurs within the flood level, whereas its congener T. bullifera invariably occurs at sites unreachable by floods. Even in conditions of high stress, T. coronata presents both physiological and adaptive strategies that allow for colonization and establishment within flooded regions. These mechanisms involve an extreme trade-off of postponing adult plant characteristics to rapid growth to escape flooding while minimizing carbon allocation to defence.

The relationship between precipitation and insurance data for floods in a Mediterranean region (northeast Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortès, Maria; Turco, Marco; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Llasat, Maria Carmen

2018-03-01

Floods in the Mediterranean region are often surface water floods, in which intense precipitation is usually the main driver. Determining the link between the causes and impacts of floods can make it easier to calculate the level of flood risk. However, up until now, the limitations in quantitative observations for flood-related damages have been a major obstacle when attempting to analyse flood risk in the Mediterranean. Flood-related insurance damage claims for the last 20 years could provide a proxy for flood impact, and this information is now available in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia, in northeast Spain. This means a comprehensive analysis of the links between flood drivers and impacts is now possible. The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate a methodology to estimate flood damages from heavy precipitation in a Mediterranean region. Results show that our model is able to simulate the probability of a damaging event as a function of precipitation. The relationship between precipitation and damage provides insights into flood risk in the Mediterranean and is also promising for supporting flood management strategies.

Methane emission through ebullition from an estuarine mudflat: 2. Field observations and modeling of occurrence probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xi; Schäfer, Karina V. R.; Slater, Lee

2017-08-01

Ebullition can transport methane (CH4) at a much faster rate than other pathways, albeit over limited time and area, in wetland soils and sediments. However, field observations present large uncertainties in ebullition occurrences and statistic models are needed to describe the function relationship between probability of ebullition occurrence and water level changes. A flow-through chamber was designed and installed in a mudflat of an estuarine temperate marsh. Episodic increases in CH4 concentration signaling ebullition events were observed during ebbing tides (15 events over 456 ebbing tides) and occasionally during flooding tides (4 events over 455 flooding tides). Ebullition occurrence functions were defined using logistic regression as the relative initial and end water levels, as well as tidal amplitudes were found to be the key functional variables related to ebullition events. Ebullition of methane was restricted by a surface frozen layer during winter; melting of this layer during spring thaw caused increases in CH4 concentration, with ebullition fluxes similar to those associated with large fluctuations in water level around spring tides. Our findings suggest that initial and end relative water levels, in addition to tidal amplitude, partly regulate ebullition events in tidal wetlands, modulated by the lunar cycle, storage of gas bubbles at different depths and seasonal changes in the surface frozen layer. Maximum tidal strength over a few days, rather than hourly water level, may be more closely associated with the possibility of ebullition occurrence as it represents a trade-off time scale in between hourly and lunar periods.

Leaf gas exchange characteristics of three neotropical mangrove species in response to varying hydroperiod

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krauss, Ken W.; Twilley, Robert R.; Doyle, Thomas W.; Gardiner, Emile S.

2006-01-01

We determined how different hydroperiods affected leaf gas exchange characteristics of greenhouse-grown seedlings (2002) and saplings (2003) of the mangrove species Avicennia germinans (L.) Stearn., Laguncularia racemosa (L.) Gaertn. f., and Rhizophora mangle L. Hydroperiod treatments included no flooding (unflooded), intermittent flooding (intermittent), and permanent flooding (flooded). Plants in the intermittent treatment were measured under both flooded and drained states and compared separately. In the greenhouse study, plants of all species maintained different leaf areas in the contrasting hydroperiods during both years. Assimilation–light response curves indicated that the different hydroperiods had little effect on leaf gas exchange characteristics in either seedlings or saplings. However, short-term intermittent flooding for between 6 and 22 days caused a 20% reduction in maximum leaf-level carbon assimilation rate, a 51% lower light requirement to attain 50% of maximum assimilation, and a 38% higher demand from dark respiration. Although interspecific differences were evident for nearly all measured parameters in both years, there was little consistency in ranking of the interspecific responses. Species by hydroperiod interactions were significant only for sapling leaf area. In a field study, R. mangle saplings along the Shark River in the Everglades National Park either demonstrated no significant effect or slight enhancement of carbon assimilation and water-use efficiency while flooded. We obtained little evidence that contrasting hydroperiods affect leaf gas exchange characteristics of mangrove seedlings or saplings over long time intervals; however, intermittent flooding may cause short-term depressions in leaf gas exchange. The resilience of mangrove systems to flooding, as demonstrated in the permanently flooded treatments, will likely promote photosynthetic and morphological adjustment to slight hydroperiod shifts in many settings..

The Tale of Flooding over the Central United States: Not Bigger but More Frequent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; Villarini, G.

2014-12-01

Flooding over the central United States is responsible for large societal and economic impacts, quantifiable in tens of fatalities and billions of dollars in damage. Because of these large repercussions, it is of paramount importance to examine whether the magnitude and/or frequency of flood events have been changing over the most recent decades. Here we address this research question using annual and seasonal maximum daily streamflow records from 774 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stations over the central United States (the study area includes North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan). The focus is on "long" records (i.e., at least 50 years of data) ending no earlier than 2011. Analyses are performed using block-maximum and peak-over-threshold approaches. We find limited evidence suggesting increasing or decreasing trends in the magnitude of flood peaks over this area. On the other hand, there is much stronger evidence of increasing frequency of flood events. Therefore, our results support the notion that it is not so much that the largest flood peaks are getting larger, but rather that we have been experiencing a larger number of flood events every year. By examining the rainfall records, we are able to link these increasing trends to similar patterns in heavy rainfall over the region.

Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2005-01-01

Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

Dependency of high coastal water level and river discharge at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P.; Couasnon, A.; Haigh, I. D.; Muis, S.; Veldkamp, T.; Winsemius, H.; Wahl, T.

2017-12-01

It is widely recognized that floods cause huge socioeconomic impacts. From 1980-2013, global flood losses exceeded $1 trillion, with 220,000 fatalities. These impacts are particularly hard felt in low-lying densely populated deltas and estuaries, whose location at the coast-land interface makes them naturally prone to flooding. When river and coastal floods coincide, their impacts in these deltas and estuaries are often worse than when they occur in isolation. Such floods are examples of so-called `compound events'. In this contribution, we present the first global scale analysis of the statistical dependency of high coastal water levels (and the storm surge component alone) and river discharge. We show that there is statistical dependency between these components at more than half of the stations examined. We also show time-lags in the highest correlation between peak discharges and coastal water levels. Finally, we assess the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of design discharge and design coastal water levels, assuming both independence and statistical dependence. For those stations where we identified statistical dependency, the probability is between 1 and 5 times greater, when the dependence structure is accounted for. This information is essential for understanding the likelihood of compound flood events occurring at locations around the world as well as for accurate flood risk assessments and effective flood risk management. The research was carried out by analysing the statistical dependency between observed coastal water levels (and the storm surge component) from GESLA-2 and river discharge using gauged data from GRDC stations all around the world. The dependence structure was examined using copula functions.

Hydrological disposition of flash flood and debris flows events in an Alpine watershed in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prenner, David; Kaitna, Roland; Mostbauer, Karin; Hrachowitz, Markus

2017-04-01

Debris flows and flash floods including intensive bedload transport represent severe hazards in the Alpine environment of Austria. For neither of these processes, explicit rainfall thresholds - even for specific regions - are available. This may be due to insufficient data on the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation, but probably also due to variations of the geomorphic and hydrological disposition of a watershed to produce such processes in the course of a rainfall event. In this contribution we investigate the importance of the hydrological system state for triggering debris flows and flash floods in the Ill/Suggadin watershed (500 km2), Austria, by analyzing the effects of dynamics in system state variables such as soil moisture, snow pack, or ground water level. The analysis is based on a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model, spatially discretizing the watershed according to the available precipitation observations, elevation, topographic considerations and land cover. Input data are available from six weather stations on a daily basis ranging back to 1947. A Thiessen polygon decomposition results in six individual precipitation zones with a maximum area of about 130 km2. Elevation specific behavior of the quantities temperature and precipitation is covered through an elevation-resolved computation every 200 m. Spatial heterogeneity is considered by distinct hydrological response units for bare rock, forest, grassland, and riparian zone. To reduce numerical smearing on the hydrological results, the Implicit Euler scheme was used to discretize the balance equations. For model calibration we utilized runoff hydrographs, snow cover data as well as prior parameter and process constraints. The obtained hydrological output variables are linked to documented observed flash flood and debris flow events by means of a multivariate logistic regression. We present a summary about the daily hydrological disposition of experiencing a flash flood or debris flow event in each precipitation zone of the Ill/Suggadin region over almost 65 years. Furthermore, we will provide an interpretation of the occurred hydrological trigger patterns and show a frequency ranking. The outcomes of this study shall lead to an improved forecasting and differentiation of trigger conditions leading to debris flows and flash floods.

High-resolution InSAR constraints on flood-related subsidence and evaporite dissolution along the Dead Sea shores: Interplay between hydrology and rheology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shviro, Maayan; Haviv, Itai; Baer, Gidon

2017-09-01

Sinkhole generation and land subsidence are commonly attributed to dissolution of subsurface layers by under-saturated groundwater and formation of cavities. Along the Dead Sea (DS) shorelines, this process also involves seasonal flash floods that are drained into the subsurface by existing and newly formed sinkholes. We quantify the contribution of flash-floods to salt dissolution and land subsidence using high-resolution interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). Subsidence rates during a 3-year period (2012-2015) were calculated from 57 COSMO SkyMed X-band interferograms bracketing major flood events and intra-flood periods in 21 sinkhole sites. The sites are located within channels and alluvial fans along the western shores of the Dead Sea, Israel. The observed subsidence reaches maximum rates of 2.5 mm/day, accumulating in specific sites to 500 mm/year. In most of the sinkhole sites a gradual increase in the annual subsidence rate is observed during the 3-year study period. Three different modes of response to floods were observed: (1) sites where floodwater is not directly channeled into sinkholes do not respond to floods; (2) sites adjacent to active channels with sinkholes are unaffected by specific floods but their subsidence rates increase gradually from early winter to mid-summer, and decay gradually until the following winter; and (3) sites in active channels with sinkholes are characterized by an abrupt increase in subsidence rates immediately after each flood (by a factor of up to 20) and by a subsequent quasi-exponential subsidence decay over periods of several months. In these latter sites, subsidence rates after each flood are temporally correlated with alternating groundwater levels in adjacent boreholes. The rapid rise in groundwater head following floods increases the hydraulic gradient of the under-saturated groundwater and hence also the groundwater discharge and the dissolution rate of the subsurface salt layer. A subsequent quasi-exponential water level drop results in similar deceleration in dissolution and subsidence rates, with a similar characteristic decay time of about 150 days. The observed subsidence decay pattern may also be explained by viscoelastic relaxation of the overburden in response to instantaneously-formed dissolution cavities. Utilizing a Kelvin viscoelastic model, we show that the contribution of this process is most probably < 30% of the total observed subsidence and is sensitive to the sediment mechanical properties. On a broader scale, this study demonstrates how high-resolution InSAR measurements can improve our understanding of subsurface dissolution and subsidence processes and provide independent constraints on the mechanical properties of heterogeneous alluvial sediments.

Floods of September 2010 in Southern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Christopher A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Mitton, Gregory B.; Kruse, Gregory A.

2011-01-01

During September 22-24, 2010, heavy rainfall ranging from 3 inches to more than 10 inches caused severe flooding across southern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions, where summer rainfall totals were as high as 20 inches, exceeding the historical average by more than 4 inches. Widespread flooding that occurred as a result of the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of hundreds of residents, and damages in excess of 64 million dollars to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, 21 counties in southern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at nine U.S. Geological Survey and three Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 27 U.S. Geological Survey and 5 Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages and 5 ungaged sites. Flood-peak streamflows in 2010 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.2 percent (recurrence interval greater than 500 years) at 7 streamgages and less than 1 percent (recurrence interval greater than 100 years) at 5 streamgages and 4 ungaged sites. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Faribault along the Cannon and Straight Rivers, Owatonna along the Straight River and Maple Creek, Pine Island along the North Branch and Middle Fork Zumbro River, and Zumbro Falls along the Zumbro River. The nearby communities of Hammond, Henderson, Millville, Oronoco, Pipestone, and Rapidan also received extensive flooding and damage but were not surveyed for high-water marks. Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for the four most severely affected communities were constructed in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with the highest resolution digital elevation model data available. The flood maps and profiles show the extent and height of flooding through the communities and can be used for flood response and recovery efforts by local, county, State, and Federal agencies.

Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Driscoll, Daniel G.; Southard, Rodney E.; Koenig, Todd A.; Bender, David A.; Holmes, Robert R.

2014-01-01

During 2011, excess precipitation resulted in widespread flooding in the Central United States with 33 fatalities and approximately $4.2 billion in damages reported in the Red River of the North, Souris, and Mississippi River Basins. At different times from late February 2011 through September 2011, various rivers in these basins had major flooding, with some locations having multiple rounds of flooding. This report provides broadscale characterizations of annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for selected streamgages in the Central United States in areas affected by 2011 flooding. Annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) were analyzed for 321 streamgages for annual peak streamflow and for 211 streamgages for annual runoff volume. Some of the most exceptional flooding was for the Souris River Basin, where of 11 streamgages considered for AEP analysis of peak streamflow, flood peaks in 2011 exceeded the next largest peak of record by at least double for 6 of the longest-term streamgages (75 to 108 years of peak-flow record). AEPs for these six streamgages were less than 1 percent. AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were less than 1 percent for all seven Souris River streamgages considered for AEP analysis. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes exceeded previous maxima by double or more for 5 of the 7 streamgages (record lengths 52 to 108 years). For the Red River of the North Basin, AEPs for 2011 runoff volumes were exceptional, with two streamgages having AEPs less than 0.2 percent, five streamgages in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent, and four streamgages in the range of 1 to 2 percent. Magnitudes of 2011 runoff volumes also were exceptional, with all 11 of the aforementioned streamgages eclipsing previous long-term (62 to 110 years) annual maxima by about one-third or more. AEPs for peak streamflows in the upper Mississippi River Basin were not exceptional, with no AEPs less than 1 percent. AEPs for annual runoff volumes indicated less frequent recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than 1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000 (at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record (112 years of record) by about 24 percent. An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flooding along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maximum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent. In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicksburg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for 98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for 182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends, 36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend analyses used descriptive methods that did not include measures of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the northwestern part of the study area having downward trends and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area having upward trends.

Ichnological evidence of jökulhlaup deposit recolonization from the Touchet Beds, Mabton, WA, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacEachern, James A.; Roberts, Michael C.

2013-01-01

The late Wisconsinan Touchet Beds section at Mabton, Washington reveals at least seven stacked jökulhlaup deposits, five showing evidence of post-flood recolonization by vertebrates. Tracemakers are attributed to voles or pocket mice (1-3 cm diameter burrows) and pocket gophers or ground squirrels (3-6 cm diameter burrows). The Mount St. Helens S tephra deposited between flood beds contains the invertebrate-generated burrows Naktodemasis and Macanopsis. Estimates of times between floods are based on natal dispersal distances of the likely vertebrate tracemakers (30-50 m median distances; 127-525 m maximum distances) from upland areas containing surviving populations to the Mabton area, a distance of about 7.9 km. Tetrapods would have required at least two to three decades to recolonize these flood beds, based on maximum dispersal distances. Invertebrate recolonization was limited by secondary succession and estimated at only a few years to a decade. These ichnological data support multiple floods from failure of the ice dam at glacial Lake Missoula, separated by hiatal surfaces on the order of decades in duration. Ichnological recolonization times are consistent with published estimates of refill times for glacial Lake Missoula, and complement the other field evidence that points to repeated, autogenically induced flood discharge.

Knee point search using cascading top-k sorting with minimized time complexity.

PubMed

Wang, Zheng; Tseng, Shian-Shyong

2013-01-01

Anomaly detection systems and many other applications are frequently confronted with the problem of finding the largest knee point in the sorted curve for a set of unsorted points. This paper proposes an efficient knee point search algorithm with minimized time complexity using the cascading top-k sorting when a priori probability distribution of the knee point is known. First, a top-k sort algorithm is proposed based on a quicksort variation. We divide the knee point search problem into multiple steps. And in each step an optimization problem of the selection number k is solved, where the objective function is defined as the expected time cost. Because the expected time cost in one step is dependent on that of the afterwards steps, we simplify the optimization problem by minimizing the maximum expected time cost. The posterior probability of the largest knee point distribution and the other parameters are updated before solving the optimization problem in each step. An example of source detection of DNS DoS flooding attacks is provided to illustrate the applications of the proposed algorithm.

A framework for performing comparative LCA between repairing flooded houses and construction of dikes in non-stationary climate with changing risk of flooding.

PubMed

Hennequin, Thomas; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Dong, Yan; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2018-06-13

Sustainable flood management is a basic societal need. In this article, life cycle assessment is used to compare two ways to maintain the state of a coastal urban area in a changing climate with increasing flood risk. On one side, the construction of a dike, a hard and proactive scenario, is modelled using a bottom up approach. On the other, the systematic repair of houses flooded by sea surges, a post-disaster measure, is assessed using a Monte Carlo simulation allowing for aleatory uncertainties in predicting future sea level rise and occurrences of extreme events. Two metrics are identified, normalized mean impacts and probability of dike being most efficient. The methodology is applied to three case studies in Denmark representing three contrasting areas, Copenhagen, Frederiksværk, and Esbjerg. For all case studies the distribution of the calculated impact of repairing houses is highly right skewed, which in some cases has implications for the comparative LCA. The results show that, in Copenhagen, the scenario of the dike is overwhelmingly favorable for the environment, with a 43 times higher impact for repairing houses and only 0% probability of the repairs being favorable. For Frederiksværk and Esbjerg the corresponding numbers are 5 and 0.9 times and 85% and 32%, respectively. Hence constructing a dike at this point in time is highly recommended in Copenhagen, preferable in Frederiksværk, and probably not recommendable in Esbjerg. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Floods of August and September 1971 in Maryland and Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carpenter, D.H.

1974-01-01

Flood discharge data are presented for 75 gaging stations and for 6 miscellaneous sites. New peaks of record occurred at 32 of the gaging stations. The maximum unit peak discharge rate recorded was 2,400 cubic fee t per second per square mile.

Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

Floods on small streams in North Carolina, probable magnitude and frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinson, Herbert G.

1965-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of floods are defined regionally for small streams (drainage area, 1 to 150 sq mi) in North Carolina. Composite frequency curves for each of two regions relate the magnitude of the annual flood, in ratio to the mean annual flood, to recurrence intervals of 1.1 to 50 years. In North Carolina, the mean annual flood (Q2.33) is related to drainage area (A) by the following equation: Q2. 33 = GA0.66, where G, the geographic factor, is the product of a statewide coefficient (US) times a correction which reflects differences in basin characteristics. Isograms of the G factor covering the State are presented.

Extension of classical hydrological risk analysis to non-stationary conditions due to climate change - application to the Fulda catchment, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, G.; Koch, M.

2010-12-01

An important aspect in water resources and hydrological engineering is the assessment of hydrological risk, due to the occurrence of extreme events, e.g. droughts or floods. When dealing with the latter - as is the focus here - the classical methods of flood frequency analysis (FFA) are usually being used for the proper dimensioning of a hydraulic structure, for the purpose of bringing down the flood risk to an acceptable level. FFA is based on extreme value statistics theory. Despite the progress of methods in this scientific branch, the development, decision, and fitting of an appropriate distribution function stills remains a challenge, particularly, when certain underlying assumptions of the theory are not met in real applications. This is, for example, the case when the stationarity-condition for a random flood time series is not satisfied anymore, as could be the situation when long-term hydrological impacts of future climate change are to be considered. The objective here is to verify the applicability of classical (stationary) FFA to predicted flood time series in the Fulda catchment in central Germany, as they may occur in the wake of climate change during the 21st century. These discharge time series at the outlet of the Fulda basin have been simulated with a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) that is forced by predicted climate variables of a regional climate model for Germany (REMO). From the simulated future daily time series, annual maximum (extremes) values are computed and analyzed for the purpose of risk evaluation. Although the 21st century estimated extreme flood series of the Fulda river turn out to be only mildly non-stationary, alleviating the need for further action and concern at the first sight, the more detailed analysis of the risk, as quantified, for example, by the return period, shows non-negligent differences in the calculated risk levels. This could be verified by employing a new method, the so-called flood series maximum analysis (FSMA) method, which consists in the stochastic simulation of numerous trajectories of a stochastic process with a given GEV-distribution over a certain length of time (> larger than a desired return period). Then the maximum value for each trajectory is computed, all of which are then used to determine the empirical distribution of this maximum series. Through graphical inversion of this distribution function the size of the design flood for a given risk (quantile) and given life duration can be inferred. The results of numerous simulations show that for stationary flood series, the new FSMA method results, expectedly, in nearly identical risk values as the classical FFA approach. However, once the flood time series becomes slightly non-stationary - for reasons as discussed - and regardless of whether the trend is increasing or decreasing, large differences in the computed risk values for a given design flood occur. Or in other word, for the same risk, the new FSMA method would lead to different values in the design flood for a hydraulic structure than the classical FFA method. This, in turn, could lead to some cost savings in the realization of a hydraulic project.

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

Using the latest paleoclimate insights to better quantify the risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts - how robust are existing water resource management and supply systems in eastern Australia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiem, Anthony; Vance, Tessa; Roberts, Jason; Ho, Michelle

2015-04-01

Floods and droughts always have and always will occur. Both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change influence flood and drought risk but their exact roles, and proportional importance, are not yet properly understood or quantified. To address these challenges, and to move towards a more resilient, well adapted world, a paradigm shift is required that accepts and accounts for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the processes that drive hydroclimatic risk. This study focuses on recent research from Australia that utilizes several independently derived paleoclimate reconstructions to better understand interannual to multidecadal climate variability and to provide improved quantification of the true risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts in the heavily populated eastern Australian region. It is demonstrated that the instrumental hydroclimatic records (which cover only 100 years at best for most parts of Australia) do not capture the full range of flooding and drought that is possible. Also discussed are the implications for water resources management of the realisation that hydroclimatic risk changes over time and that fundamental questions of whether flood and drought risk in Australia will increase or decrease in the future (and where and when and by how much) are as yet unanswered, and how decision makers can robustly deal with such uncertainty.

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

PubMed

Morita, M

2011-01-01

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Smith, Andrew M.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Johnson, Kris A.; Fargione, Joseph; Morefield, Philip

2018-03-01

Past attempts to estimate rainfall-driven flood risk across the US either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30 m resolution model of the entire conterminous US with a 2D representation of flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard, which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. These flood depths are combined with exposure datasets of commensurate resolution to calculate current and future flood risk. Our data show that the total US population exposed to serious flooding is 2.6-3.1 times higher than previous estimates, and that nearly 41 million Americans live within the 1% annual exceedance probability floodplain (compared to only 13 million when calculated using FEMA flood maps). We find that population and GDP growth alone are expected to lead to significant future increases in exposure, and this change may be exacerbated in the future by climate change.

Flood of August 31-September 1, 1978, in Crosswicks Creek basin and vicinity, central New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vickers, Arthur A.

1980-01-01

A thunderstorm during the evening of August 31, 1978, caused flooding in a small area of south central New Jersey. Maximum peaks of record occurred on the upper Crosswicks Creek basin in the vicinity of Fort Dix, Wrightstown, and New Egypt. At New Egypt, high water crest elevations for Crosswicks Creek were approximately 4 feet higher than the previous maximum recorded on August 28, 1971. Total damages were in excess of 2 million dollars, with 70 houses and 14 businesses affected.

A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

PubMed

Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

2017-07-11

Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

Modelling maximum river flow by using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheong, R. Y.; Gabda, D.

2017-09-01

Analysis of flood trends is vital since flooding threatens human living in terms of financial, environment and security. The data of annual maximum river flows in Sabah were fitted into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) raised naturally when working with GEV distribution. However, previous researches showed that MLE provide unstable results especially in small sample size. In this study, we used different Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based on Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to estimate GEV parameters. Bayesian MCMC method is a statistical inference which studies the parameter estimation by using posterior distribution based on Bayes’ theorem. Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to overcome the high dimensional state space faced in Monte Carlo method. This approach also considers more uncertainty in parameter estimation which then presents a better prediction on maximum river flow in Sabah.

Floods of January-February 1957 in southeastern Kentucky and adjacent areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1964-01-01

Heavy rains over an extensive area on January 27-February 2, caused extreme flooding in southeastern Kentucky and adjacent areas in West Virginia, Virginia, and Tennessee. Total rainfall for the storm period ranged from 6-9 inches over most of the report area and was 12? inches at the eastern end of the Virginia-Kentucky State line. The principal basins affected by the storm were those of the Big Sandy, Kentucky, Cumberland, and Tennessee Rivers. Maximum discharge of record occurred in many streams. On Levisa Fork near Grundy, Va., the peak discharge of 33,200 cfs was 50 percent greater than the previous maximum in 17 years of record and was 3.3 times the mean annual flood. The peak discharges on-tributaries of the Kentucky River and on ,the Holston and Clinch Rivers were also the greatest of record and .those on the upper Cumberland River were nearly as great as .those during the historic floods of 1918 and 1946. Total flood damage was estimated at $61 million of which $39 million was in the Big Sandy River basin (mostly in Kentucky) and $15 million was in the Kentucky River basin--$52 million of the total damage was in Kentucky.

Floods of April 1979, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edelen, G.W.; Wilson, K.V.; Harkins, J.R.; Miller, J.F.; Chin, E.H.

1986-01-01

A major storm April 11-13, 1979, following a series of storms in March and April, brought large amounts of rainfall over southeastern United States. Heaviest rain fell over north-central Mississippi and Alabama. A maximum of 21.5 inches was observed at Louisville, 14 SE, Mississippi. Floods in Mississippi and Alabama were the maximum of record at 60 streamflow gaging stations in the Coosa, Alabama, Tombigbee, Chickasawhay, Pearl, and Big Black River basins. On the Pearl River, peak discharges at main stem gaging stations generally approached or exceeded those of the great flood of 1874, and recurrence intervals generally were greater than 100 years. Nine lives were reported lost. Estimated damages totaled nearly $400 million. Seventeen thousand people were driven from their homes in Jackson, Mississippi. This report presents analyses of the meterological settings of the storms, summaries of flood stages and discharges at 221 streamflow gaging stations, stages and contents of 10 reservoirs, flood-crest stages and hydrograph data consisting of gage height, discharge, and accumulated runoff at selected times, at 46 gaging stations, groundwater fluctuations in 11 observation wells, and water salinity and temperature at 22 sites along the Intracoastal Waterway in Mobile Bay. (USGS)

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges and largest recorded floods for unregulated streams in rural Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southard, Rodney E.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression analysis techniques were used to develop a set of equations for rural ungaged stream sites for estimating discharges with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. Basin and climatic characteristics were computed using geographic information software and digital geospatial data. A total of 35 characteristics were computed for use in preliminary statewide and regional regression analyses. Annual exceedance-probability discharge estimates were computed for 278 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a log-Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data from water year 1844 to 2012. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect potentially influential low floods. Annual peak flows less than a minimum recordable discharge at a streamgage were incorporated into the at-site station analyses. An updated regional skew coefficient was determined for the State of Missouri using Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least squares regression analyses. At-site skew estimates for 108 long-term streamgages with 30 or more years of record and the 35 basin characteristics defined for this study were used to estimate the regional variability in skew. However, a constant generalized-skew value of -0.30 and a mean square error of 0.14 were determined in this study. Previous flood studies indicated that the distinct physical features of the three physiographic provinces have a pronounced effect on the magnitude of flood peaks. Trends in the magnitudes of the residuals from preliminary statewide regression analyses from previous studies confirmed that regional analyses in this study were similar and related to three primary physiographic provinces. The final regional regression analyses resulted in three sets of equations. For Regions 1 and 2, the basin characteristics of drainage area and basin shape factor were statistically significant. For Region 3, because of the small amount of data from streamgages, only drainage area was statistically significant. Average standard errors of prediction ranged from 28.7 to 38.4 percent for flood region 1, 24.1 to 43.5 percent for flood region 2, and 25.8 to 30.5 percent for region 3. The regional regression equations are only applicable to stream sites in Missouri with flows not significantly affected by regulation, channelization, backwater, diversion, or urbanization. Basins with about 5 percent or less impervious area were considered to be rural. Applicability of the equations are limited to the basin characteristic values that range from 0.11 to 8,212.38 square miles (mi2) and basin shape from 2.25 to 26.59 for Region 1, 0.17 to 4,008.92 mi2 and basin shape 2.04 to 26.89 for Region 2, and 2.12 to 2,177.58 mi2 for Region 3. Annual peak data from streamgages were used to qualitatively assess the largest floods recorded at streamgages in Missouri since the 1915 water year. Based on existing streamgage data, the 1983 flood event was the largest flood event on record since 1915. The next five largest flood events, in descending order, took place in 1993, 1973, 2008, 1994 and 1915. Since 1915, five of six of the largest floods on record occurred from 1973 to 2012.

Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Palcacocha Lake in Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.

2014-12-01

Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.

Annual exceedance probabilities of the peak discharges of 2011 at streamgages in Vermont and selected streamgages in New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, and northeastern New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; Bent, Gardner C.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, determined annual exceedance probabilities for peak discharges occurring during the 2011 water year (October 1 to September 30) at streamgages in Vermont and selected streamgages in New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, and northeastern New York. This report presents the 2011 water year peak discharges at 145 streamgages in the study area and provides the results of the analyses of the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability discharges at 135 of the 145 streamgages. The annual exceedance probabilities for the 2011 water year peak discharges also are presented. Snowmelt and near record rainfall led to flooding across northern Vermont on April 27 and 28, 2011. At three streamgages with more than 10 years of record, the April rain event resulted in the peak discharge of record. At seven streamgages, the peak discharge resulting from this event had an annual exceedance probability less than or equal to 1 percent. In early May 2011, new peak stage records were set at two Lake Champlain gages with more than 100 years of record. At the Lake Champlain at Burlington, Vermont, gage, the water surface reached 102.79 feet (ft) (North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88)) on May 6, 2011, and at the Richelieu River (Lake Champlain) at Rouses Point, New York, gage, the water surface reached 102.75 ft NAVD 88. Record-breaking rainfall in late May produced additional flooding across northern Vermont on May 26 and 27, 2011. Four streamgages in northwestern Vermont recorded peak-of-record discharges as a result of this flooding. At three streamgages, the peak discharges from this event had an annual exceedance probability less than or equal to 1 percent. From August 28 to 29, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene delivered rainfall totals ranging from about 3 to more than 10 inches, which resulted in extensive flooding and new period-of-record peak discharges at 37 streamgages in the study area. The peak discharges as a result of Tropical Storm Irene had an annual exceedance probability of less than or equal to 1 percent at 36 streamgages. At 11 of these 36 streamgages, the annual exceedance probability of the peak discharges was less than or equal to 0.2 percent.

Duration and Frequency Analysis of Lowland Flooding in Western Murfreesboro, Rutherford County, Tennessee, 1998-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Law, George S.

2002-01-01

Periodic flooding occurs at lowlands and sinkholes in and adjacent to the flood plain of the West Fork Stones River in the western part of Murfreesboro, Tennessee. Flooding in this area commonly occurs during the winter months from December through March. The maximum water level that flood waters will reach in a lowland or sinkhole is controlled by the elevation of the land surrounding the site or the overflow outlet. Maximum water levels, independent of overflow from the river, were estimated to be reached in lowlands and sinkholes in the study area every 1 to 4 years. Minor overflow from the West Fork Stones River (less than 1 foot in depth) into the study area has been estimated to occur every 10 to 20 years. Moderate overflow from the river (1 to 2 feet in depth) occurs on average every 20 to 50 years, while major river overflow (in excess of 2 feet in depth) can be expected every 50 years. Rainfall information for the area, and streamflow and water-level measurements from the West Fork Stones River, lowlands, sinkholes, caves, and wells in the study area were used to develop a flood-prone area map, independent of overflow from the river, for the study area. Water-level duration and frequency relations, independent of overflow from the river, were estimated for several lowlands, sinkholes, and wells in the study area. These relations are used to characterize flooding in lowland areas of western Murfreesboro, Rutherford County, Tennessee.

Evaluation of multiple hydraulic models in generating design/near-real time flood inundation extents under various geophysical settings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Rajib, M. A.; Jafarzadegan, K.; Merwade, V.

2015-12-01

Application of land surface/hydrologic models within an operational flood forecasting system can provide probable time of occurrence and magnitude of streamflow at specific locations along a stream. Creating time-varying spatial extent of flood inundation and depth requires the use of a hydraulic or hydrodynamic model. Models differ in representing river geometry and surface roughness which can lead to different output depending on the particular model being used. The result from a single hydraulic model provides just one possible realization of the flood extent without capturing the uncertainty associated with the input or the model parameters. The objective of this study is to compare multiple hydraulic models toward generating ensemble flood inundation extents. Specifically, relative performances of four hydraulic models, including AutoRoute, HEC-RAS, HEC-RAS 2D, and LISFLOOD are evaluated under different geophysical conditions in several locations across the United States. By using streamflow output from the same hydrologic model (SWAT in this case), hydraulic simulations are conducted for three configurations: (i) hindcasting mode by using past observed weather data at daily time scale in which models are being calibrated against USGS streamflow observations, (ii) validation mode using near real-time weather data at sub-daily time scale, and (iii) design mode with extreme streamflow data having specific return periods. Model generated inundation maps for observed flood events both from hindcasting and validation modes are compared with remotely sensed images, whereas the design mode outcomes are compared with corresponding FEMA generated flood hazard maps. The comparisons presented here will give insights on probable model-specific nature of biases and their relative advantages/disadvantages as components of an operational flood forecasting system.

Changes in Benefits of Flood Protection Standard under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, W. H.; Koirala, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

2014-12-01

Understanding potential risk of river flooding under future climate scenarios might be helpful for developing risk management strategies (including mitigation, adaptation). Such analyses are typically performed at the macro scales (e.g., regional, global) where the climate model output could support (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014). To understand the potential benefits of infrastructure upgrading as part of climate adaptation strategies, it is also informative to understand the potential impact of different flood protection standards (in terms of return periods) on global river flooding under climate change. In this study, we use a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and CMIP5 model output (historic and future periods) to drive a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011) and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the potential risk of river flooding and changes in the benefits of flood protection standard (e.g., 100-year flood of the baseline period) from the past into the future (represented by the representative concentration pathways). In this presentation, we show our preliminary results. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S., N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726.

Review of Seismic Hazard Issues Associated with Auburn Dam Project, Sierra Nevada Foothills, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, D.P.; Joyner, W.B.; Stein, R.S.; Brown, R.D.; McGarr, A.F.; Hickman, S.H.; Bakun, W.H.

1996-01-01

Summary -- The U.S. Geological Survey was requested by the U.S. Department of the Interior to review the design values and the issue of reservoir-induced seismicity for a concrete gravity dam near the site of the previously-proposed Auburn Dam in the western foothills of the Sierra Nevada, central California. The dam is being planned as a flood-control-only dam with the possibility of conversion to a permanent water-storage facility. As a basis for planning studies the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is using the same design values approved by the Secretary of the Interior in 1979 for the original Auburn Dam. These values were a maximum displacement of 9 inches on a fault intersecting the dam foundation, a maximum earthquake at the site of magnitude 6.5, a peak horizontal acceleration of 0.64 g, and a peak vertical acceleration of 0.39 g. In light of geological and seismological investigations conducted in the western Sierran foothills since 1979 and advances in the understanding of how earthquakes are caused and how faults behave, we have developed the following conclusions and recommendations: Maximum Displacement. Neither the pre-1979 nor the recent observations of faults in the Sierran foothills precisely define the maximum displacement per event on a fault intersecting the dam foundation. Available field data and our current understanding of surface faulting indicate a range of values for the maximum displacement. This may require the consideration of a design value larger than 9 inches. We recommend reevaluation of the design displacement using current seismic hazard methods that incorporate uncertainty into the estimate of this design value. Maximum Earthquake Magnitude. There are no data to indicate that a significant change is necessary in the use of an M 6.5 maximum earthquake to estimate design ground motions at the dam site. However, there is a basis for estimating a range of maximum magnitudes using recent field information and new statistical fault relations. We recommend reevaluating the maximum earthquake magnitude using current seismic hazard methodology. Design Ground Motions. A large number of strong-motion records have been acquired and significant advances in understanding of ground motion have been achieved since the original evaluations. The design value for peak horizontal acceleration (0.64 g) is larger than the median of one recent study and smaller than the median value of another. The value for peak vertical acceleration (0.39 g) is somewhat smaller than median values of two recent studies. We recommend a reevaluation of the design ground motions that takes into account new ground motion data with particular attention to rock sites at small source distances. Reservoir-Induced Seismicity. The potential for reservoir-induced seismicity must be considered for the Auburn Darn project. A reservoir-induced earthquake is not expected to be larger than the maximum naturally occurring earthquake. However, the probability of an earthquake may be enhanced by reservoir impoundment. A flood-control-only project may involve a lower probability of significant induced seismicity than a multipurpose water-storage dam. There is a need to better understand and quantify the likelihood of this hazard. A methodology should be developed to quantify the potential for reservoir induced seismicity using seismicity data from the Sierran foothills, new worldwide observations of induced and triggered seismicity, and current understanding of the earthquake process. Reevaluation of Design Parameters. The reevaluation of the maximum displacement, maximum magnitude earthquake, and design ground motions can be made using available field observations from the Sierran foothills, updated statistical relations for faulting and ground motions, and current computational seismic hazard methodologies that incorporate uncertainty into the analysis. The reevaluation does not require significant new geological field studies.

On the stationarity of Floods in west African rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

NKA, B. N.; Oudin, L.; Karambiri, H.; Ribstein, P.; Paturel, J. E.

2014-12-01

West Africa undergoes a big change since the years 1970-1990, characterized by very low precipitation amounts, leading to low stream flows in river basins, except in the Sahelian region where the impact of human activities where pointed out to justify the substantial increase of floods in some catchments. More recently, studies showed an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events, and according to observations made over the region, increase of flood events is also noticeable during the rainy season. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity on flood events is questionable and the reliability of flood evolution and climatic patterns is justified. In this work, we analyzed the trends of floods events for several catchments in the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of Burkina Faso. We used thirteen tributaries of large river basins (Niger, Nakambe, Mouhoun, Comoé) for which daily rainfall and flow data were collected from national hydrological and meteorological services of the country. We used Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests to detect trends and break points in the annual time series of 8 rainfall indices and the annual maximum discharge records. We compare the trends of precipitation indices and flood size records to analyze the possible causality link between floods size and rainfall pattern. We also analyze the stationary of the frequency of flood exceeding the ten year return period level. The samples were extracted by a Peak over threshold method and the quantification of change in flood frequency was assessed by using a test developed by Lang M. (1995). The results exhibit two principal behaviors. Generally speaking, no trend is detected on catchments annual maximum discharge, but positive break points are pointed out in a group of three right bank tributaries of the Niger river that are located in the sahelian region between 300mm to 650mm. These same catchments show as well an increase of the yearly number of flood greater than the ten year flood since 1980. However, there is no consistency between rain fall pattern and flood size pattern in the entire region.

Hydraulic shock waves in an inclined chute contraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jan, C.-D.; Chang, C.-J.

2009-04-01

A chute contraction is a common structure used in hydraulic engineering for typical reasons such as increase of bottom slope, transition from side channel intakes to tunnel spillways, reduction of chute width due to bridges, transition structures in flood diversion works, among others. One of the significant chute contractions in Taiwan is that used in the Yuanshantzu Flood Diversion Project of Keelung River. The diversion project is designed to divert flood water from upper Keelung River into East Sea with a capasity of 1,310 cubic meters per second for mitigating the flood damage of lower part of Keelung River basin in Northern Taiwan. An inclined chute contraction is used to connect Keelung River and a diversion turnel. The inlet and outlet works of the diversion project is located at Ruifang in the Taipei County of north Taiwan. The diameter of diversion tunnel is 12 meters and the total length of tunnel is 2,484 meters. The diversion project has been completed and successfully executed many times since 2004 to lower the water level of Keelung River in typhoon seasons for avioding flooding problems in the lower part of Keelung River basin. Flow in a chute contraction has complicated flow pattern due to the existence of shock waves in it. A simple and useful calculation procedure for the maximum height and its position of shock waves is essentially needed for the preliminary design stage of a chute contraction. Hydraulic shock waves in an inclined chute contraction were experimentally and numerically investigated in this study with the consideration of the effects of sidewall deflection angle, bottom inclination angle and Froude number of approaching flow. The flow pattern of hydraulic shock waves in a chute contraction was observed. The main issue of designing chute contraction is to estimate the height and position of maximum shock wave for the consideration of freeboards. Achieving this aim, the experimental data are adopted and analyzed for the shock angle, the height of maximum shock wave and the corresponding position of maximum shock wave. The dimensionless relations for the shock angle, the height of maximum shock wave and the corresponding position of maximum shock wave are obtained by regression analysis. These empirical regression relations, basically relating to the sidewall deflection angle, bottom angle and approach Froude number, are very useful for further practical engineering applications in chute contraction design for avoiding flow overtopping.

33 CFR 241.5 - Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... THE ARMY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FLOOD CONTROL COST-SHARING REQUIREMENTS UNDER THE ABILITY TO PAY.... Determine the maximum possible reduction in the level of non-Federal cost-sharing for any project. (1) Calculate the ratio of flood control benefits (developed using the Water Resources Council's Principles and...

33 CFR 241.5 - Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... THE ARMY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FLOOD CONTROL COST-SHARING REQUIREMENTS UNDER THE ABILITY TO PAY.... Determine the maximum possible reduction in the level of non-Federal cost-sharing for any project. (1) Calculate the ratio of flood control benefits (developed using the Water Resources Council's Principles and...

33 CFR 241.5 - Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... THE ARMY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FLOOD CONTROL COST-SHARING REQUIREMENTS UNDER THE ABILITY TO PAY.... Determine the maximum possible reduction in the level of non-Federal cost-sharing for any project. (1) Calculate the ratio of flood control benefits (developed using the Water Resources Council's Principles and...

33 CFR 241.5 - Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... THE ARMY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FLOOD CONTROL COST-SHARING REQUIREMENTS UNDER THE ABILITY TO PAY.... Determine the maximum possible reduction in the level of non-Federal cost-sharing for any project. (1) Calculate the ratio of flood control benefits (developed using the Water Resources Council's Principles and...

33 CFR 241.5 - Procedures for estimating the alternative cost-share.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... THE ARMY, DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FLOOD CONTROL COST-SHARING REQUIREMENTS UNDER THE ABILITY TO PAY.... Determine the maximum possible reduction in the level of non-Federal cost-sharing for any project. (1) Calculate the ratio of flood control benefits (developed using the Water Resources Council's Principles and...

The flash flood event in the catchment of the river Weisseritz (eastern Erzgebirge, Saxony) from 12.-14. August 2002 - meteorological and hydrological reasons, damage assesment and disaster managment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, V.; Bernhofer, Ch.

2003-04-01

Between 12. and 14. August 2002 the region of eastern Erzgebirge (Saxony/Eastern Germany) was affected by the heaviest rainfall event recorded since beginning of the measuring period in 1883. The synoptic reason of this event was the advective precipitation due to the strong and very slowly shifting Vb-low "Ilse" combined with a noticeable topographic intensification by north-westerly winds. All stations in the catchment area of the river Weisseritz recorded new all-time records. E.g., at the meteorological station Zinnwald-Georgenfeld situated at the crest of eastern Erzgebirge a daily sum of 312 mm was measured for the 13. August. This value is close to the maximum physically possible rainfall. The intensive rainfall in the catchments of Rote Weisseritz and Wilde Weisseritz led to unexperienced heavy flash floods with large material transport and flow damages. The buffer effect of the existing dam systems was comparatively small because the reserved retaining capacity for flood protection was only about 20 percent of the total capacity. The reservoirs filled quickly due to the very high maximum inflow. So a long-time overflow of the dam system occurred with a maximum of about 300 cubic meters per second at the combined river Weisseritz through the cities of Freital and Dresden (This situation led, e.g., to the flooding of Central Railway Station in Dresden). This water flow is comparable with a medium flow rate of the river Elbe in Dresden, and it is about 300 times higher than the normal drain of the river Weisseritz in Freital! The material damages in the Weisseritz region account for several hundred millions EURO, and several causalties occurred. The damages of the University buildings in Tharandt (including one building of the Department of Meteorology) account for 15 millions EURO alone. The disaster management during the flood was not optimal. For many people, e.g. in Tharandt, there was neither an officially warning nor an organised rescue of movable goods. However, after the flood there was a fast help by the Federal Armed Forces, students and helpers from surrounding villages and municipalities. This flood, as well as the later flood of the Elbe, will be investigated by local and international competence teams to optimize future flood protection.

Uncertainty in flood damage estimates and its potential effect on investment decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenaar, D. J.; de Bruijn, K. M.; Bouwer, L. M.; de Moel, H.

2016-01-01

This paper addresses the large differences that are found between damage estimates of different flood damage models. It explains how implicit assumptions in flood damage functions and maximum damages can have large effects on flood damage estimates. This explanation is then used to quantify the uncertainty in the damage estimates with a Monte Carlo analysis. The Monte Carlo analysis uses a damage function library with 272 functions from seven different flood damage models. The paper shows that the resulting uncertainties in estimated damages are in the order of magnitude of a factor of 2 to 5. The uncertainty is typically larger for flood events with small water depths and for smaller flood events. The implications of the uncertainty in damage estimates for flood risk management are illustrated by a case study in which the economic optimal investment strategy for a dike segment in the Netherlands is determined. The case study shows that the uncertainty in flood damage estimates can lead to significant over- or under-investments.

Note on a modified return period scale for upper-truncated unbounded flood distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardsley, Earl

2017-01-01

Probability distributions unbounded to the right often give good fits to annual discharge maxima. However, all hydrological processes are in reality constrained by physical upper limits, though not necessarily well defined. A result of this contradiction is that for sufficiently small exceedance probabilities the unbounded distributions anticipate flood magnitudes which are impossibly large. This raises the question of whether displayed return period scales should, as is current practice, have some given number of years, such as 500 years, as the terminating rightmost tick-point. This carries the implication that the scale might be extended indefinitely to the right with a corresponding indefinite increase in flood magnitude. An alternative, suggested here, is to introduce a sufficiently high upper truncation point to the flood distribution and modify the return period scale accordingly. The rightmost tick-mark then becomes infinity, corresponding to the upper truncation point discharge. The truncation point is likely to be set as being above any physical upper bound and the return period scale will change only slightly over all practical return periods of operational interest. The rightmost infinity tick point is therefore proposed, not as an operational measure, but rather to signal in flood plots that the return period scale does not extend indefinitely to the right.

Predictors of business return in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Lam, Nina S N; Arenas, Helbert; Pace, Kelley; LeSage, James; Campanella, Richard

2012-01-01

We analyzed the business reopening process in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, which hit the region on August 29, 2005, to better understand what the major predictors were and how their impacts changed through time. A telephone survey of businesses in New Orleans was conducted in October 2007, 26 months after Hurricane Katrina. The data were analyzed using a modified spatial probit regression model to evaluate the importance of each predictor variable through time. The results suggest that the two most important reopening predictors throughout all time periods were the flood depth at the business location and business size as represented by its wages in a logarithmic form. Flood depth was a significant negative predictor and had the largest marginal effects on the reopening probabilities. Smaller businesses had lower reopening probabilities than larger ones. However, the nonlinear response of business size to the reopening probability suggests that recovery aid would be most effective for smaller businesses than for larger ones. The spatial spillovers effect was a significant positive predictor but only for the first nine months. The findings show clearly that flood protection is the overarching issue for New Orleans. A flood protection plan that reduces the vulnerability and length of flooding would be the first and foremost step to mitigate the negative effects from climate-related hazards and enable speedy recovery. The findings cast doubt on the current coastal protection efforts and add to the current debate of whether coastal Louisiana will be sustainable or too costly to protect from further land loss and flooding given the threat of sea-level rise. Finally, a plan to help small businesses to return would also be an effective strategy for recovery, and the temporal window of opportunity that generates the greatest impacts would be the first 6∼9 months after the disaster.

Predictors of Business Return in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

PubMed Central

Lam, Nina S. N.; Arenas, Helbert; Pace, Kelley; LeSage, James; Campanella, Richard

2012-01-01

We analyzed the business reopening process in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, which hit the region on August 29, 2005, to better understand what the major predictors were and how their impacts changed through time. A telephone survey of businesses in New Orleans was conducted in October 2007, 26 months after Hurricane Katrina. The data were analyzed using a modified spatial probit regression model to evaluate the importance of each predictor variable through time. The results suggest that the two most important reopening predictors throughout all time periods were the flood depth at the business location and business size as represented by its wages in a logarithmic form. Flood depth was a significant negative predictor and had the largest marginal effects on the reopening probabilities. Smaller businesses had lower reopening probabilities than larger ones. However, the nonlinear response of business size to the reopening probability suggests that recovery aid would be most effective for smaller businesses than for larger ones. The spatial spillovers effect was a significant positive predictor but only for the first nine months. The findings show clearly that flood protection is the overarching issue for New Orleans. A flood protection plan that reduces the vulnerability and length of flooding would be the first and foremost step to mitigate the negative effects from climate-related hazards and enable speedy recovery. The findings cast doubt on the current coastal protection efforts and add to the current debate of whether coastal Louisiana will be sustainable or too costly to protect from further land loss and flooding given the threat of sea-level rise. Finally, a plan to help small businesses to return would also be an effective strategy for recovery, and the temporal window of opportunity that generates the greatest impacts would be the first 6∼9 months after the disaster. PMID:23133530

Spillway sizing of large dams in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reszler, Ch.; Gutknecht, D.; Blöschl, G.

2003-04-01

This paper discusses the basic philosophy of defining and calculating design floods for large dams in Austria, both for the construction of new dams and for a re-assessment of the safety of existing dams. Currently the consensus is to choose flood peak values corresponding to a probability of exceedance of 2*10-4 for a given year. A two step procedure is proposed to estimate the design flood discharges - a rapid assessment and a detailed assessment. In the rapid assessment the design discharge is chosen as a constant multiple of flood values read from a map of regionalised floods. The safety factor or multiplier takes care of the uncertainties of the local estimation and the regionalisation procedure. If the current design level of a spillway exceeds the value so estimated, no further calculations are needed. Otherwise (and for new dams) a detailed assessment is required. The idea of the detailed assessment is to draw upon all existing sources of information to constrain the uncertainties. The three main sources are local flood frequency analysis, where flood data are available; regional flood estimation from hydrologically similar catchments; and rainfall-runoff modelling using design storms as inputs. The three values obtained by these methods are then assessed and weighted in terms of their reliability to facilitate selection of the design flood. The uncertainty assessment of the various methods is based on confidence intervals, estimates of regional heterogeneity, data availability and sensitivity analyses of the rainfall-runoff model. As the definition of the design floods discussed above is based on probability concepts it is also important to examine the excess risk, i.e. the possibility of the occurrence of a flood exceeding the design levels. The excess risk is evaluated based on a so called Safety Check Flood (SCF), similar to the existing practice in other countries in Europe. The SCF is a vehicle to analyse the damage potential of an event of this magnitude. This is to provide guidance for protective measures to dealing with very extreme floods. The SCF is used to check the vulnerability of the system with regard to structural stability, morphological effects, etc., and to develop alarm plans and disaster mitigation procedures. The basis for estimating the SCF are the uncertainty assessments of the design flood values estimated by the three methods including unlikely combinations of the controlling factors and attending uncertainties. Finally we discuss the impact on the downstream valley of floods exceeding the design values and of smaller floods and illustrate the basic concepts by examples from the recent flood in August 2002.

Ares Valles

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-12-13

This image from NASA Mars Odyssey covers a portion of Ares Valles, an outflow channel carved into the surface of Mars by ancient catastrophic floods. The floods were most likely caused by huge discharges of groundwater at the channel heads. These floods are similar to (but much larger than) floods that created the Channeled Scablands in central Washington State during the last ice age on Earth. The Martian channels are hundreds of kilometers long and occur in a number of regions within equatorial Mars. The material that was eroded away by these floods was deposited as sediment in the northern lowlands. The Mars Pathfinder landing site is several hundred kilometers downstream from the location of this image and the surfaces are probably similar in nature. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA04026

Flood of June 1972: Seneca Lake Inlet at Watkins Glen, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, L.A.; Hamecher, P.H.

1972-01-01

In June 1972, tropical storm Agnes caused sever flooding in Pennsylvania and southern New York. The flood, on many major streams were the highest known since the river valleys were settled. Maximum discharges were as much as twice the discharge of a 50-year flood. In southern New York, large areas in Corning, Elmire, Wellsville, Salamanca, and in many smaller communities were inundated to depths of several feet. Levels of all of the Finger Lakes were higher than any previously recorded, and extensive flooding of lakeside properties resulted. The extent of flooding shown on the map was delineated by the U.S. Geological Survey from earlier photography and limited field survey. The investigation was conducted in cooperation with the State of New York and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

The Importance of Studying Past Extreme Floods to Prepare for Uncertain Future Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burges, S. J.

2016-12-01

Hoyt and Langbein, 1955 in their book `Floods' wrote: " ..meteorologic and hydrologic conditions will combine to produce superfloods of unprecedented magnitude. We have every reason to believe that in most rivers past floods may not be an accurate measure of ultimate flood potentialities. It is this superflood with which we are always most concerned". I provide several examples to offer some historical perspective on assessing extreme floods. In one example, flooding in the Miami Valley, OH in 1913 claimed 350 lives. The engineering and socio-economic challenges facing the Morgan Engineering Co in how to mitigate against future flood damage and loss of life when limited information was available provide guidance about ways to face an uncertain hydroclimate future, particularly one of a changed climate. A second example forces us to examine mixed flood populations and illustrates the huge uncertainty in assigning flood magnitude and exceedance probability to extreme floods in such cases. There is large uncertainty in flood frequency estimates; knowledge of the total flood hydrograph, not the peak flood flow rate alone, is what is needed for hazard mitigation assessment or design. Some challenges in estimating the complete flood hydrograph in an uncertain future climate, including demands on hydrologic models and their inputs, are addressed.

At-Sea Data Collection for the Validation of Piloting Simulation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-12-01

ebb , flood, and slack Current. All transits are inbound moving left to right on the plots. While flow at maximum flood or ebb can approach as much as...Work Unit No. ( TRAIS ) Eclectech Associates, Inc. North Stonington Professional Center 11. Contract or Grant No. North Stonington, Connecticut DOT-CG...over 10 knots Ebb tidal current Flood tidal current Slack tidal current The comparison of piloting as a function of these variables is presented in

Preliminary vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood by Puerto Vallarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trejo-Gómez, E.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Ortiz, M.; Escudero, C. R.; CA-UdG-276 Sisvoc

2013-05-01

Jalisco coast is susceptible to local tsunami due to the occurrence of large earthquakes. In 1932 occurred three by largest earthquakes. Evidence suggests that one of them caused by offshore subsidence of sediments deposited by Armeria River. For the tsunamis 1932 have not been studied the seismic source. On October 9, 1995, occurred a large earthquake (Mw= 8.0) producing a tsunami with run up height up ≤ 5 m. This event affected Tenacatita Bay and many small villages along the coast of Jalisco and Colima. Using seismic source parameters, we simulated 1995 tsunami and estimated the maximum wave height. We compared the our results with 20 field measures 20 taked during 1995 along the south cost of Jalisco State, from Chalacatepec to Barra de Navidad. Similar seismic source parameters used for tsunami 1995 simulation was used as reference for simulating a hypothetical seismic source front Puerto Vallarta. We assumed that the fracture occurs in the gap for the north cost of Jalisco. Ten sites were distributed to cover the Banderas Bay, as theoretical pressure sensors, were estimated the maximum wave height and time to arrived at cost. After we delimited zones hazard zones by floods on digital model terrain, a graphic scale 1:20,000. At the moment, we have already included information by hazard caused by hypothetical tsunami in Puerto Vallarta. The hazard zones by flood were the north of Puerto Vallarta, as Ameca, El Salado, El Pitillal and Camarones. The initial wave height could be ≤ 1 m, 15 minutes after earthquake, in Pitillal zone. We estimated for Puerto Vallarta the maximum flood area was in El Salado zone, ≤ 2 km, with the maximum wave height > 3 m to ≤ 4.8 m at 25 and 75 minutes. We estimated a previous vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood; it was based on the spatial distribution of socio-economic data from INEGI. We estimated a low vulnerability in El Salado and height vulnerability for El Pitillal and Ameca.

Flood prediction, its risk and mitigation for the Babura River with GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarigan, A. P. M.; Hanie, M. Z.; Khair, H.; Iskandar, R.

2018-03-01

This paper describes the flood prediction along the Babura River, the catchment of which is within the comparatively larger watershed of the Deli River which crosses the centre part of Medan City. The flood plain and ensuing inundation area were simulated using HECRAS based on the available data of rainfall, catchment, and river cross-sections. The results were shown in a GIS format in which the city map of Medan and other infrastructure layers were stacked for spatial analysis. From the resulting GIS, it can be seen that 13 sub-districts were likely affected by the flood, and then the risk calculation of the flood damage could be estimated. In the spirit of flood mitigation thoughts, 6 locations of evacuation centres were identified and 15 evacuation routes were recommended to reach the centres. It is hoped that the flood prediction and its risk estimation in this study will inspire the preparedness of the stakeholders for the probable threat of flood disaster.

Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2013-03-01

This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each account in different ways for an insurer's risk aversion and the dispersion rate of loss data. This study is of practical relevance because insurers have been considering the introduction of flood insurance in the Netherlands, which is currently not generally available.

Distribution of uncertainties at the municipality level for flood risk modelling along the river Meuse: implications for policy-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirotton, Michel; Stilmant, Frédéric; Erpicum, Sébastien; Dewals, Benjamin; Archambeau, Pierre

2016-04-01

Flood risk modelling has been conducted for the whole course of the river Meuse in Belgium. Major cities, such as Liege (200,000 inh.) and Namur (110,000 inh.), are located in the floodplains of river Meuse. Particular attention has been paid to uncertainty analysis and its implications for decision-making. The modelling chain contains flood frequency analysis, detailed 2D hydraulic computations, damage modelling and risk calculation. The relative importance of each source of uncertainty to the overall results uncertainty has been estimated by considering several alternate options for each step of the analysis: different distributions were considered in the flood frequency analysis; the influence of modelling assumptions and boundary conditions (e.g., steady vs. unsteady) were taken into account for the hydraulic computation; two different landuse classifications and two sets of damage functions were used; the number of exceedance probabilities involved in the risk calculation (by integration of the risk-curves) was varied. In addition, the sensitivity of the results with respect to increases in flood discharges was assessed. The considered increases are consistent with a "wet" climate change scenario for the time horizons 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Detrembleur et al., 2015). The results of hazard computation differ significantly between the upper and lower parts of the course of river Meuse in Belgium. In the former, inundation extents grow gradually as the considered flood discharge is increased (i.e. the exceedance probability is reduced), while in the downstream part, protection structures (mainly concrete walls) prevent inundation for flood discharges corresponding to exceedance probabilities of 0.01 and above (in the present climate). For higher discharges, large inundation extents are obtained in the floodplains. The highest values of risk (mean annual damage) are obtained in the municipalities which undergo relatively frequent flooding (upper part of the river), as well as in those of the downstream part of the Meuse in which flow depths in the urbanized floodplains are particularly high when inundation occurs. This is the case of the city of Liege, as a result of a subsidence process following former mining activities. For a given climate scenario, the uncertainty ranges affecting flood risk estimates are significant; but not so much that the results for the different municipalities would overlap substantially. Therefore, these uncertainties do not hamper prioritization in terms of allocation of risk reduction measures at the municipality level. In the present climate, the uncertainties arising from flood frequency analysis have a negligible influence in the upper part of the river, while they have a considerable impact on risk modelling in the lower part, where a threshold effect was observed due to the flood protection structures (sudden transition from no inundation to massive flooding when a threshold discharge is exceeded). Varying the number of exceedance probabilities in the integration of the risk curve has different effects for different municipalities; but it does not change the ranking of the municipalities in terms of flood risk. For the other scenarios, damage estimation contributes most to the overall uncertainties. As shown by this study, the magnitude of the uncertainty and its main origin vary in space and in time. This emphasizes the paramount importance of conducting distributed uncertainty analyses. In the considered study area, prioritization of risk reduction means can be reliably performed despite the modelling uncertainties. Reference Detrembleur, S., Stilmant, F., Dewals, B., Erpicum, S., Archambeau, P., & Pirotton, M. (2015). Impacts of climate change on future flood damage on the river Meuse, with a distributed uncertainty analysis. Natural Hazards, 77(3), 1533-1549. Acknowledgement Part of this research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation. It was also supported by the NWE Interreg IVB Program.

Behavior of aircraft antiskid braking systems on dry and wet runway surfaces - A velocity-rate-controlled, pressure-bias-modulated system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stubbs, S. M.; Tanner, J. A.

1976-01-01

During maximum braking the average ratio of drag-force friction coefficient developed by the antiskid system to maximum drag-force friction coefficient available at the tire/runway interface was higher on dry surfaces than on wet surfaces. The gross stopping power generated by the brake system on the dry surface was more than twice that obtained on the wet surfaces. With maximum braking applied, the average ratio of side-force friction coefficient developed by the tire under antiskid control to maximum side-force friction available at the tire/runway interface of a free-rolling yawed tire was shown to decrease with increasing yaw angle. Braking reduced the side-force friction coefficient on a dry surface by 75 percent as the wheel slip ratio was increased to 0.3; on a flooded surface the coefficient dropped to near zero for the same slip ratio. Locked wheel skids were observed when the tire encountered a runway surface transition from dry to flooded, due in part to the response time required for the system to sense abrupt changes in the runway friction; however, the antiskid system quickly responded by reducing brake pressure and cycling normally during the remainder of the run on the flooded surface.

Development of regional skews for selected flood durations for the Central Valley Region, California, based on data through water year 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Berenbrock, Charles; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Ferris, Justin C.; Knifong, Donna L.

2012-01-01

Flood-frequency information is important in the Central Valley region of California because of the high risk of catastrophic flooding. Most traditional flood-frequency studies focus on peak flows, but for the assessment of the adequacy of reservoirs, levees, other flood control structures, sustained flood flow (flood duration) frequency data are needed. This study focuses on rainfall or rain-on-snow floods, rather than the annual maximum, because rain events produce the largest floods in the region. A key to estimating flood-duration frequency is determining the regional skew for such data. Of the 50 sites used in this study to determine regional skew, 28 sites were considered to have little to no significant regulated flows, and for the 22 sites considered significantly regulated, unregulated daily flow data were synthesized by using reservoir storage changes and diversion records. The unregulated, annual maximum rainfall flood flows for selected durations (1-day, 3-day, 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day) for all 50 sites were furnished by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Station skew was determined by using the expected moments algorithm program for fitting the Pearson Type 3 flood-frequency distribution to the logarithms of annual flood-duration data. Bayesian generalized least squares regression procedures used in earlier studies were modified to address problems caused by large cross correlations among concurrent rainfall floods in California and to address the extensive censoring of low outliers at some sites, by using the new expected moments algorithm for fitting the LP3 distribution to rainfall flood-duration data. To properly account for these problems and to develop suitable regional-skew regression models and regression diagnostics, a combination of ordinary least squares, weighted least squares, and Bayesian generalized least squares regressions were adopted. This new methodology determined that a nonlinear model relating regional skew to mean basin elevation was the best model for each flood duration. The regional-skew values ranged from -0.74 for a flood duration of 1-day and a mean basin elevation less than 2,500 feet to values near 0 for a flood duration of 7-days and a mean basin elevation greater than 4,500 feet. This relation between skew and elevation reflects the interaction of snow and rain, which increases with increased elevation. The regional skews are more accurate, and the mean squared errors are less than in the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data's National skew map of Bulletin 17B.

Importance of record length with respect to estimating the 1-percent chance flood

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.

2010-01-01

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gages have been established in every State in the Nation, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. From these st reamflow records, estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are often developed and used to design transportation and water- conveyance structures to protect lives and property, and to determine flood-insurance rates. Probably the most recognizable flood statistic computed from USGS stream gaging records is the 1- percent (%) chance flood; better known has the 100-year flood. By definition, this is a flood that has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. The 1% chance flood is a statistical estimate that can be significantly influenced by length of record and extreme flood events captured in that record. Consequently, it is typically recommended that flood statistics be updated on some regular interval such as every 10 years. This paper examines the influence of record length on the 1% chance flood for the Broad River in Georgia and the substantial difference that can occur in the estimate based on record length and the hydrologic conditions under which that record was collected. 

A brief hydrologic appraisal of the July 3-4, 1975, flash flood in Las Vegas Valley, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Katzer, T.L.; Glancy, Patrick A.; Harmsen, Lynn

1976-01-01

Heavy thunderstorm precipitation on the afternoon of July 3, 1975, between metropolitan Las Vegas and the mountains to the south, west, and north, caused flash flooding in the city area. Total storm precipitation equaled or exceeded 3 inches (76 mm) in some areas. The total storm yield on the area of significant runoff was probably between 20,000 and 25,000 acre-feet (2.5 x 107 m3 and 3.1 x 107 m3) of water. Of this amount, probably less than 3,000 acre-feet (37 x 106 m3) flowed directly to Lake Mead. Peak flows of Tropicana Wash, Flamingo Wash, Las Vegas Creek, and Las Vegas Wash were the highest ever determined. Flooding caused the loss of two lives and inflicted extensive property damage. Total damage was reportedly estimated by the Clark County Flood Control District at $4-5 million. Problems associated with sediment erosion, transportation, and deposition occurred throughout the flooded area. An unknown amount of the material transported during the flood was deposited in Lake Mead near the mouth of Las Vegas Wash. Lateral erosion appeared more prominent than vertical erosion along most major channels, except on Las Vegas Wash at Northshore Road where downcutting threatened the loss of the highway. Sediment deposits were particularly noticeable and troublesome in Flamingo Wash at Caesars Palace parking lot and on the Winterwood Golf Course near the junction of Flamingo Wash and Las Vegas Wash.

National Dam Inspection Program. Big Elk Lake Dam (NDI I.D. PA-0056 DER I.D. 058-019) Susquehanna River Basin, Elk Lake Stream, Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania. Phase I Inspection Report.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-03-19

Drainage Area 2.88 square miles(") b. Discharge at Dam Site ( cfs ) Maximum known flood at dam site Unknown Outlet conduit at maximum pool Not...the spillway was determined to be 164 cfs , based on the available 2.7-foot freeboard relative to the crest of the embankment. The Big Elk Lake watershed...computer analysis are presented in Appendix D. The 100-year flood, determined according to the recommended procedure, was found to have a peak of 2290 cfs

Floods of June 2012 in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Czuba, Christiana R.; Fallon, James D.; Kessler, Erich W.

2012-01-01

During June 19–20, 2012, heavy rainfall, as much as 10 inches locally reported, caused severe flooding across northeastern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions from a relatively rainy spring, with May 2012 as one of the wettest Mays on record in Duluth. The June 19–20, 2012, rainfall event set new records in Duluth, including greatest 2-day precipitation with 7.25 inches of rain. The heavy rains fell on three major watersheds: the Mississippi Headwaters; the St. Croix, which drains to the Mississippi River; and Western Lake Superior, which includes the St. Louis River and other tributaries to Lake Superior. Widespread flash and river flooding that resulted from the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of residents, and damages to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, nine counties in northeastern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas as a result of the flooding. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at 13 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 35 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Flood-peak streamflows in June 2012 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.002 (0.2 percent; recurrence interval greater than 500 years) for five streamgages, and between 0.002 and 0.01 (1 percent; recurrence interval greater than 100 years) for four streamgages. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Barnum (Moose Horn River), Carlton (Otter Creek), Duluth Heights neighborhood of Duluth (Miller Creek), Fond du Lac neighborhood of Duluth (St. Louis River), Moose Lake (Moose Horn River and Moosehead Lake), and Thomson (Thomson Reservoir outflow near the St. Louis River). Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles were produced for these six severely affected communities. The inundation maps were constructed in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with high-resolution digital elevation model data. The flood maps and profiles show the extent and depth of flooding through the communities and can be used for flood response and recovery efforts by local, county, State, and Federal agencies.

Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopson, T. M.; Priya, S.; Young, W.; Avasthi, A.; Clayton, T. D.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Broman, D.; Boehnert, J.; Sampson, K. M.; Kettner, A.; Singh, D.

2017-12-01

During the 2017 South Asia monsoon, torrential rains and catastrophic floods affected more than 45 million people, including 16 million children, across the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins. The basin is recognized as one of the world's most disaster-prone regions, with severe floods occurring almost annually causing extreme loss of life and property. In light of this vulnerability, the World Bank and collaborators have contributed toward reducing future flood impacts through recent developments to improve operational preparedness for such events, as well as efforts in more general preparedness and resilience building through planning based on detailed risk assessments. With respect to improved event-specific flood preparedness through operational warnings, we discuss a new forecasting system that provides probability-based flood forecasts developed for more than 85 GBM locations. Forecasts are available online, along with near-real-time data maps of rainfall (predicted and actual) and river levels. The new system uses multiple data sets and multiple models to enhance forecasting skill, and provides improved forecasts up to 16 days in advance of the arrival of high waters. These longer lead times provide the opportunity to save both lives and livelihoods. With sufficient advance notice, for example, farmers can harvest a threatened rice crop or move vulnerable livestock to higher ground. Importantly, the forecasts not only predict future water levels but indicate the level of confidence in each forecast. Knowing whether the probability of a danger-level flood is 10 percent or 90 percent helps people to decide what, if any, action to take. With respect to efforts in general preparedness and resilience building, we also present a recent flood risk assessment, and how it provides, for the first time, a numbers-based view of the impacts of different size floods across the Ganges basin. The findings help identify priority areas for tackling flood risks (for example, relocating levees, improving flood warning systems, or boosting overall economic resilience). The assessment includes the locations and numbers of people at risk, as well as the locations and value of buildings, roads and railways, and crops at risk. An accompanying atlas includes easy-to-use risk maps and tables for the Ganges basins.

Autogenic erosional surfaces on backwater-mediated deltas from floods and avulsions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganti, V.; Chadwick, A. J.; Lamb, M. P.; Fischer, W. W.; Trower, L.

2016-12-01

Erosional surfaces provide key bounds on the architecture of fluvio-deltaic stratigraphy and are attributed to relative sea level fall and sediment supply changes modulated by secular changes in climate; however, major knowledge gap exists in detangling the record of internal sedimentary dynamics from that of allogenic forcings. Recent work suggests that river flood variability through persistent backwater hydrodynamics exerts a primary control on lobe-scale avulsions on deltas, and floods and avulsions play an important role in driving transient channel incision even in deltas experiencing net aggradation. Here, we identify and quantify two autogenically generated mechanisms that result in erosional boundaries within fluvio-deltaic stratigraphy, namely, flood-induced and avulsion-induced scours. We developed a theoretical model based on mass conversation that suggests that flood-induced scours resulting from river drawdown propagate approximately one backwater length (Lb) from the shoreline, and the scour depth is maximum near the shoreline and scales with flood variability and the bankfull depth (hbf). Avulsion-induced scours result from river steepening due to shortening of the new river path. This mechanism results in an erosional pulse whose maximum depth scales with the critical in-channel sedimentation that induces an avulsion (scales with hbf) and initiates at the avulsion site and propagates upstream by Lb. Together, autogenically generated erosional scours can extend 1-2Lb from the shoreline and their depths are a function of hbf and flood variability. We validate these theoretical predictions using a recent experiment of river delta evolution governed by persistent backwater hydrodynamics under constant sea level conditions. Finally, we reinterpret outcrop scale observations within the Castlegate sandstone, Utah—type example for sequence stratigraphy—and show that field observations are consistent with scours resulting from floods and avulsions alone.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Flash Floods in Design Storms

PubMed Central

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-01-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years. PMID:21845165

Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

PubMed

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-07-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

A combined morphometric, sedimentary, GIS and modelling analysis of flooding and debris flow hazard on a composite alluvial fan, Caveside, Tasmania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kain, Claire L.; Rigby, Edward H.; Mazengarb, Colin

2018-02-01

Two episodes of intense flooding and sediment movement occurred in the Westmorland Stream alluvial system near Caveside, Australia in January 2011 and June 2016. The events were investigated in order to better understand the drivers and functioning of this composite alluvial system on a larger scale, so as to provide awareness of the potential hazard from future flood and debris flow events. A novel combination of methods was employed, including field surveys, catchment morphometry, GIS mapping from LiDAR and aerial imagery, and hydraulic modelling using RiverFlow-2D software. Both events were initiated by extreme rainfall events (< 1% Annual Exceedance Probability for durations exceeding 6 h) and resulted in flooding and sediment deposition across the alluvial fan. The impacts of the 2011 and 2016 events on the farmland appeared similar; however, there were differences in sediment source and transport processes that have implications for understanding recurrence probabilities. A debris flow was a key driver in the 2011 event, by eroding the stream channel in the forested watershed and delivering a large volume of sediment downstream to the alluvial fan. In contrast, modelled flooding velocities suggest the impacts of the 2016 event were the result of an extended period of extreme stream flooding and consequent erosion of alluvium directly above the current fan apex. The morphometry of the catchment is better aligned with values from fluvially dominated fans found elsewhere, which suggests that flooding represents a more frequent future risk than debris flows. These findings have wider implications for the estimation of debris flow and flood hazard on alluvial fans in Tasmania and elsewhere, as well as further demonstrating the capacity of combined hydraulic modelling and geomorphologic investigation as a predictive tool to inform hazard management practices in environments affected by flooding and sediment movement.

Flood on Big Fossil Creek at Haltom City near Fort Worth, Texas, in 1962

USGS Publications Warehouse

Montgomery, John H.; Ruggles, Frederick H.; Patterson, James Lee

1965-01-01

The approximate area inundated near Fort Worth, Texas, by Big Fossil Creek, during the flood of September 7, 1962, is shown on a topographic map to record the flood hazard in graphic form. Big Fossil Creek, which drains an area of 74.7 square miles, flows generally southeastward along the northeast edge of Fort Worth through Richland Hills and Haltom City, into West Fork Trinity River. The flood of September 7, 1962, the greatest in Richland Hills since at least 1900 was the result of a high rate of discharge from the area upstream from the confluence of Big Fossil Creek and Whites Branch. Greater floods are possible, but no attempt has been made to show their probable overflow limits. Future protective works may reduce the frequency of flooding in the area but will not necessarily eliminate flooding. Changes in culture such as new highways and bridges and changes in land use may influence the inundation pattern of future floods. Mapping of the West Fork Trinity River flood was beyond the scope of the Big Fossil Creek study, and is not shown.

Extremely long-distance seed dispersal by an overfished Amazonian frugivore.

PubMed

Anderson, Jill T; Nuttle, Tim; Saldaña Rojas, Joe S; Pendergast, Thomas H; Flecker, Alexander S

2011-11-22

Throughout Amazonia, overfishing has decimated populations of fruit-eating fishes, especially the large-bodied characid, Colossoma macropomum. During lengthy annual floods, frugivorous fishes enter vast Amazonian floodplains, consume massive quantities of fallen fruits and egest viable seeds. Many tree and liana species are clearly specialized for icthyochory, and seed dispersal by fish may be crucial for the maintenance of Amazonian wetland forests. Unlike frugivorous mammals and birds, little is known about seed dispersal effectiveness of fishes. Extensive mobility of frugivorous fish could result in extremely effective, multi-directional, long-distance seed dispersal. Over three annual flood seasons, we tracked fine-scale movement patterns and habitat use of wild Colossoma, and seed retention in the digestive tracts of captive individuals. Our mechanistic model predicts that Colossoma disperses seeds extremely long distances to favourable habitats. Modelled mean dispersal distances of 337-552 m and maximum of 5495 m are among the longest ever reported. At least 5 per cent of seeds are predicted to disperse 1700-2110 m, farther than dispersal by almost all other frugivores reported in the literature. Additionally, seed dispersal distances increased with fish size, but overfishing has biased Colossoma populations to smaller individuals. Thus, overexploitation probably disrupts an ancient coevolutionary relationship between Colossoma and Amazonian plants.

Extremely long-distance seed dispersal by an overfished Amazonian frugivore

PubMed Central

Anderson, Jill T.; Nuttle, Tim; Saldaña Rojas, Joe S.; Pendergast, Thomas H.; Flecker, Alexander S.

2011-01-01

Throughout Amazonia, overfishing has decimated populations of fruit-eating fishes, especially the large-bodied characid, Colossoma macropomum. During lengthy annual floods, frugivorous fishes enter vast Amazonian floodplains, consume massive quantities of fallen fruits and egest viable seeds. Many tree and liana species are clearly specialized for icthyochory, and seed dispersal by fish may be crucial for the maintenance of Amazonian wetland forests. Unlike frugivorous mammals and birds, little is known about seed dispersal effectiveness of fishes. Extensive mobility of frugivorous fish could result in extremely effective, multi-directional, long-distance seed dispersal. Over three annual flood seasons, we tracked fine-scale movement patterns and habitat use of wild Colossoma, and seed retention in the digestive tracts of captive individuals. Our mechanistic model predicts that Colossoma disperses seeds extremely long distances to favourable habitats. Modelled mean dispersal distances of 337–552 m and maximum of 5495 m are among the longest ever reported. At least 5 per cent of seeds are predicted to disperse 1700–2110 m, farther than dispersal by almost all other frugivores reported in the literature. Additionally, seed dispersal distances increased with fish size, but overfishing has biased Colossoma populations to smaller individuals. Thus, overexploitation probably disrupts an ancient coevolutionary relationship between Colossoma and Amazonian plants. PMID:21429923

Hurricane Harvey Rainfall, Did It Exceed PMP and What are the Implications?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kappel, B.; Hultstrand, D.; Muhlestein, G.

2017-12-01

Rainfall resulting from Hurricane Harvey reached historic levels over the coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana during the last week of August 2017. Although extreme rainfall from this landfalling tropical system is not uncommon in the region, Harvey was unique in that it persisted over the same general location for several days, producing volumes of rainfall not previously observed in the United States. Devastating flooding and severe stress to infrastructure in the region was the result. Coincidentally, Applied Weather Associates had recently completed an updated statewide Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) study for Texas. This storm proved to be a real-time test of the adequacy of those values. AWA calculates PMP following a storm-based approach. This same approach was use in the HMRs. Therefore inclusion of all PMP-type storms is critically important to ensuring that appropriate PMP values are produced. This presentation will discuss the analysis of the Harvey rainfall using the Storm Precipitation Analysis System (SPAS) program used to analyze all storms used in PMP development, compare the results of the Harvey rainfall analysis against previous similar storms, and provide comparisons of the Harvey rainfall against previous and current PMP depths. Discussion will be included regarding the implications of the storm on previous and future PMP estimates, dam safety design, and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme flooding.

33 CFR 183.220 - Preconditioning for tests.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... result of the following calculation, but not less than zero: The maximum weight capacity marked on the... be keel down in the water. (g) The boat must be swamped, allowing water to flow between the inside... flooded portion of the boat must be eliminated. (h) Water must flood the two largest air chambers and all...

33 CFR 183.220 - Preconditioning for tests.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... result of the following calculation, but not less than zero: The maximum weight capacity marked on the... be keel down in the water. (g) The boat must be swamped, allowing water to flow between the inside... flooded portion of the boat must be eliminated. (h) Water must flood the two largest air chambers and all...

33 CFR 183.220 - Preconditioning for tests.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... result of the following calculation, but not less than zero: The maximum weight capacity marked on the... be keel down in the water. (g) The boat must be swamped, allowing water to flow between the inside... flooded portion of the boat must be eliminated. (h) Water must flood the two largest air chambers and all...

Glider monitoring of shelf suspended particle dynamics and transport during storm and flooding conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourrin, François; Many, Gaël; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Martín, Jacobo; Puig, Pere; Houpert, Loic; Testor, Pierre; Kunesch, Stéphane; Mahiouz, Karim; Béguery, Laurent

2015-10-01

Transfers of particulate matter on continental margins primarily occur during energetic events. As part of the CASCADE (CAscading, Storm, Convection, Advection and Downwelling Events) experiment, a glider equipped with optical sensors was deployed in the coastal area of the Gulf of Lions, NW Mediterranean in March 2011 to assess the spatio-temporal variability of hydrology, suspended particles properties and fluxes during energetic conditions. This deployment complemented a larger observational effort, a part of the MOOSE (Mediterranean Ocean Observing System of the Environment) network, composed of a coastal benthic station, a surface buoy and moorings on the continental slope. This set of observations permitted to measure the impact of three consecutive storms and a flood event across the entire continental shelf. Glider data showed that the sediment resuspension and transport observed at the coastal station during the largest storm (Hs>4 m) was effective down to a water depth of 80 m. The mid-shelf mud belt, located between 40 and 90 m depth, appears as the zone where the along-shelf flux of suspended sediment is maximum. Besides, the across-shelf flux of suspended sediment converges towards the outer limit of the mid-shelf mud belt, where deposition of suspended particles probably occurs and contributes to the nourishment of this area. Hydrological structures, suspended particles transport and properties changed drastically during stormy periods and the following flood event. Prior to the storms, the shelf waters were weakly stratified due in particular to the presence of cold dense water on the inner- and mid-shelf. The storms rapidly swept away this dense water, as well as the resuspended sediments, along the shelf and towards a downstream submarine canyon. The buoyant river plumes that spread along the shelf after the flooding period provoked a restratification of the water column on the inner- and mid-shelf. The analysis of glider's optical data at different wavelengths suggests that the coastal area and the bottom nepheloid layer during the largest storm are primarily composed of coarse particles, probably macroflocs, and that the size of particles decreases further offshore. A similar trend, albeit less contrasted, is observed after the flooding. This work provided a unique synoptic view across the entire shelf of the impact of a typical Mediterranean storm on bottom sediment erosion and particulate fluxes. Repeated glider transects across the south-western part of the Gulf of Lions shelf permitted for the first time to measure continuously the thermo-haline structures, the suspended particles concentrations and size, the current speed, and to estimate the particulate transport before, during and after typical Mediterranean storm events. Glider data complement and compare well with concomitant high frequency time series at fixed stations along the coast and in a downstream submarine canyon.

Flood risk awareness during the 2011 floods in the central United States: showcasing the importance of hydrologic data and interagency collaboration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Schwein, Noreen O.; Shadie, Charles E.

2012-01-01

Floods have long had a major impact on society and the environment, evidenced by the more than 1,500 federal disaster declarations since 1952 that were associated with flooding. Calendar year 2011 was an epic year for floods in the United States, from the flooding on the Red River of the North in late spring to the Ohio, Mississippi, and Missouri River basin floods in the spring and summer to the flooding caused by Hurricane Irene along the eastern seaboard in August. As a society, we continually seek to reduce flood impacts, with these efforts loosely grouped into two categories: mitigation and risk awareness. Mitigation involves such activities as flood assessment, flood control implementation, and regulatory activities such as storm water and floodplain ordinances. Risk awareness ranges from issuance of flood forecasts and warnings to education of lay audiences about the uncertainties inherent in assessing flood probability and risk. This paper concentrates on the issue of flood risk awareness, specifically the importance of hydrologic data and good interagency communication in providing accurate and timely flood forecasts to maximize risk awareness. The 2011 floods in the central United States provide a case study of the importance of hydrologic data and the value of proper, timely, and organized communication and collaboration around the collection and dissemination of that hydrologic data in enhancing the effectiveness of flood forecasting and flood risk awareness.

Floods in south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas, October 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckner, Harold D.; Kurklin, Joanne K.

1984-01-01

Substantial reductions in peak stages and discharges on the West Fork Trinity River downstream from Eagle Mountain Reservoir were attained as a result of reservoir storage. All floodwater on the Elm Fork Trinity River was contained by reservoir storage thus preventing a potentially devastating flood downstream on the Trinity River. Maximum stages and discharges and/or contents were recorded during and after this major flood at 83 gaging stations, crest-stage stations, reservoir stations, and a miscellaneous site.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.

Use of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to evaluate extreme flooding and transport of dissolved solids through Devils Lake and Stump Lake, North Dakota, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nustad, Rochelle A.; Wood, Tamara M.; Bales, Jerad D.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Transportation, North Dakota State Water Commission, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, developed a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of Devils Lake and Stump Lake, North Dakota to be used as a hydrologic tool for evaluating the effects of different inflow scenarios on water levels, circulation, and the transport of dissolved solids through the lake. The numerical model, UnTRIM, and data primarily collected during 2006 were used to develop and calibrate the Devils Lake model. Performance of the Devils Lake model was tested using 2009 data. The Devils Lake model was applied to evaluate the effects of an extreme flooding event on water levels and hydrological modifications within the lake on the transport of dissolved solids through Devils Lake and Stump Lake. For the 2006 calibration, simulated water levels in Devils Lake compared well with measured water levels. The maximum simulated water level at site 1 was within 0.13 feet of the maximum measured water level in the calibration, which gives reasonable confidence that the Devils Lake model is able to accurately simulate the maximum water level at site 1 for the extreme flooding scenario. The timing and direction of winddriven fluctuations in water levels on a short time scale (a few hours to a day) were reproduced well by the Devils Lake model. For this application, the Devils Lake model was not optimized for simulation of the current speed through bridge openings. In future applications, simulation of current speed through bridge openings could be improved by more accurate definition of the bathymetry and geometry of select areas in the model grid. As a test of the performance of the Devils Lake model, a simulation of 2009 conditions from April 1 through September 30, 2009 was performed. Overall, errors in inflow estimates affected the results for the 2009 simulation; however, for the rising phase of the lakes, the Devils Lake model accurately simulated the faster rate of rise in Devils Lake than in Stump Lake, and timing and direction of wind-driven fluctuations in water levels on a short time scale were reproduced well. To help the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers determine the elevation to which the protective embankment for the city of Devils Lake should be raised, an extreme flooding scenario based on an inflow of one-half the probable maximum flood was simulated. Under the conditions and assumptions of the extreme flooding scenario, the water level for both lakes reached a maximum water level around 1,461.9 feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929. One factor limiting the extent of pumping from the Devils Lake State Outlet is sulfate concentrations in West Bay. If sulfate concentrations can be reduced in West Bay, pumping from the Devils Lake State Outlet potentially can increase. The Devils Lake model was used to simulate the transport of dissolved solids using specific conductance data as a surrogate for sulfate. Because the transport of dissolved solids was not calibrated, results from the simulations were not actual expected concentrations. However, the effects of hydrological modifications on the transport of dissolved solids could be evaluated by comparing the effects of hydrological modifications relative to a baseline scenario in which no hydrological modifications were made. Four scenarios were simulated: (1) baseline condition (no hydrological modification), (2) diversion of Channel A, (3) reduction of the area of water exchange between Main Bay and East Bay, and (4) combination of scenarios 2 and 3. Relative to scenario 1, mean concentrations in West Bay for scenarios 2 and 4 were reduced by approximately 9 percent. Given that there is no change in concentration for scenario 3, but about a 9-percent reduction in concentration for scenario 4, the diversion of Channel A was the only hydrologic modification that appeared to have the potential to reduce sulfate c

An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical flood information is available

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, T.A.; Lane, W.L.; Baier, W.G.

1997-01-01

This paper presents the expected moments algorithm (EMA), a simple and efficient method for incorporating historical and paleoflood information into flood frequency studies. EMA can utilize three types of at-site flood information: systematic stream gage record; information about the magnitude of historical floods; and knowledge of the number of years in the historical period when no large flood occurred. EMA employs an iterative procedure to compute method-of-moments parameter estimates. Initial parameter estimates are calculated from systematic stream gage data. These moments are then updated by including the measured historical peaks and the expected moments, given the previously estimated parameters, of the below-threshold floods from the historical period. The updated moments result in new parameter estimates, and the last two steps are repeated until the algorithm converges. Monte Carlo simulations compare EMA, Bulletin 17B's [United States Water Resources Council, 1982] historically weighted moments adjustment, and maximum likelihood estimators when fitting the three parameters of the log-Pearson type III distribution. These simulations demonstrate that EMA is more efficient than the Bulletin 17B method, and that it is nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The experiments also suggest that EMA has two advantages over MLE when dealing with the log-Pearson type III distribution: It appears that EMA estimates always exist and that they are unique, although neither result has been proven. EMA can be used with binomial or interval-censored data and with any distributional family amenable to method-of-moments estimation.

Flooding of December 29, 1984 through January 2, 1985, in northern New York State, with flood profiles of the Black and Salmon rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lumia, Richard; Burke, P.M.; Johnston, W.H.

1987-01-01

Precipitation, snowmelt, and resultant flooding throughout northern New York from December 28 through January 2, 1985, were investigated through a detailed analysis of 56 precipitation stations, 101 stage and/or discharge gaging stations, and 9 miscellaneous measurement sites. Flood damage to property and roads and bridges exceeded $5 million. Lewis and Oswego Counties were declared Federal disaster areas, primarily a result of flooding of the Black River and Salmon River. Storm-precipitation and runoff maps show the storms ' greatest intensity to have been over the Tug Hill and southwest Adirondack areas. Total rainfall from December 28 through January 2 was 6.90 inches at Stillwater Reservoir but only 0.69 inches at Lake Placid. New peak discharges of record occurred at 17 gaging stations throughout northern New York, and the maximum discharge at 17 sites had recurrence intervals equal to or greater than 100 years. Computed inflows to 11 major lakes and reservoirs in northern New York indicate that significant volumes of water (as much as 5 inches of storm runoff at Stillwater Reservoir) were stored during the storm-runoff period. Maximum 1-day flood volumes at two gaging stations on the Black River had recurrence intervals greater than 100 years. To help evaluate the extent of flooding, 67 floodmarks were obtained along a 94-mile reach of the Black River from Dexter to Forestport, and several floodmarks were surveyed within major communities along the Salmon River. The floodmarks were obtained primarily near major bridges and dams along these rivers. (Author 's abstract)

An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical flood information is available

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, T. A.; Lane, W. L.; Baier, W. G.

This paper presents the expected moments algorithm (EMA), a simple and efficient method for incorporating historical and paleoflood information into flood frequency studies. EMA can utilize three types of at-site flood information: systematic stream gage record; information about the magnitude of historical floods; and knowledge of the number of years in the historical period when no large flood occurred. EMA employs an iterative procedure to compute method-of-moments parameter estimates. Initial parameter estimates are calculated from systematic stream gage data. These moments are then updated by including the measured historical peaks and the expected moments, given the previously estimated parameters, of the below-threshold floods from the historical period. The updated moments result in new parameter estimates, and the last two steps are repeated until the algorithm converges. Monte Carlo simulations compare EMA, Bulletin 17B's [United States Water Resources Council, 1982] historically weighted moments adjustment, and maximum likelihood estimators when fitting the three parameters of the log-Pearson type III distribution. These simulations demonstrate that EMA is more efficient than the Bulletin 17B method, and that it is nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The experiments also suggest that EMA has two advantages over MLE when dealing with the log-Pearson type III distribution: It appears that EMA estimates always exist and that they are unique, although neither result has been proven. EMA can be used with binomial or interval-censored data and with any distributional family amenable to method-of-moments estimation.

Storm and flood of July 5, 1989, in northern New Castle County, Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paulachok, G.N.; Simmons, R.H.; Tallman, A.J.

1995-01-01

On July 5, 1989, intense rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Storm Allison caused severe flooding in northern New Castle County, Delaware. The flooding claimed three lives, and damage was estimated to be $5 million. Flood conditions were aggravated locally by rapid runoff from expansive urban areas. Record- breaking floods occurred on many streams in northern New Castle County. Peak discharges at three active, continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, one active crest-stage station, and at two discontinued streamflow-gaging stations exceeded previously recorded maximums. Estimated recurrence intervals for peak flow at the three active, continuous-record streamflow stations exceeded 100 years. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted comprehensive post-flood surveys to determine peak water-surface elevations that occurred on affected streams and their tributaries during the flood of July 5, 1989. Detailed surveys were performed near bridge crossings to provide additional information on the extent and severity of the flooding and the effects of hydraulic constrictions on floodwaters.

Detection and attribution of flood change across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archfield, Stacey

2017-04-01

In the United States, there have a been an increasing number of studies quantifying trends in the annual maximum flood; yet, few studies examine trends in floods that may occur more than once in a given year and even fewer assess trends in floods on rivers that have undergone substantial changes due to urbanization, land-cover change, and agricultural drainage practices. Previous research has shown that, for streamgages having minimal direct human intervention, trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. This study extends previous research to provide a comprehensive assessment of flood change across the United States that includes streamgages having experienced confounding alterations to streamflow (urbanization, storage, and land-cover changes) that provides a comprehensive assessment of flood change. Attribution of these changes is also explored.

Prediction of the flooding of a mining reservoir in NW Spain.

PubMed

Álvarez, R; Ordóñez, A; De Miguel, E; Loredo, C

2016-12-15

Abandoned and flooded mines constitute underground reservoirs which must be managed. When pumping is stopped in a closed mine, the process of flooding should be anticipated in order to avoid environmentally undesirable or unexpected mine water discharges at the surface, particularly in populated areas. The Candín-Fondón mining reservoir in Asturias (NW Spain) has an estimated void volume of 8 million m 3 and some urban areas are susceptible to be flooded if the water is freely released from the lowest mine adit/pithead. A conceptual model of this reservoir was undertaken and the flooding process was numerically modelled in order to estimate the time that the flooding would take. Additionally, the maximum safe height for the filling of the reservoir is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiemig, Vera; Bisselink, Bernard; Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta

2015-04-01

The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions of the ECMWF and critical hydrological thresholds. In this study the predictive capability is investigated, to estimate AFFS' potential as an operational flood forecasting system for the whole of Africa. This is done in a hindcast mode, by reproducing pan-African hydrological predictions for the whole year of 2003 where important flood events were observed. Results were analysed in two ways, each with its individual objective. The first part of the analysis is of paramount importance for the assessment of AFFS as a flood forecasting system, as it focuses on the detection and prediction of flood events. Here, results were verified with reports of various flood archives such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory, the Emergency Event Database, the NASA Earth Observatory and Reliefweb. The number of hits, false alerts and missed alerts as well as the Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate and Critical Success Index were determined for various conditions (different regions, flood durations, average amount of annual precipitations, size of affected areas and mean annual discharge). The second part of the analysis complements the first by giving a basic insight into the prediction skill of the general streamflow. For this, hydrological predictions were compared against observations at 36 key locations across Africa and the Continuous Rank Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), the limit of predictability and reliability were calculated. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. Also the forecasts showed on average a good reliability, and the CRPSS helped identifying regions to focus on for future improvements. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe and Mozambique) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a good prospective as an operational system, as it has demonstrated its significant potential to contribute to the reduction of flood-related losses in Africa by providing national and international aid organizations timely with medium-range flood forecast information. However, issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

Paleohydraulics and hydrodynamics of Scabland floods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, V. R.

1978-01-01

The last major episode of scabland flooding (approx. 18,000-13,000 years B.P.) left considerable high-water mark evidence in the form of: (1) eroded channel margins; (2) depositional features; (3) ice-rafter erratics; and (4) divide crossings. These were used to reconstruct maximum flood stages and water-surface gradients. Engineering hydraulic calculation procedures allowed the analyses of flood discharges and mean velocities from these data. Secondary flow phenomena, including various forms of vortices and flow separations, are considered to have been the principal erosive processes. The intense pressure and velocity gradients of vortices along the irregular channel boundaries produced the plucking-type erosion.

An analysis of effect of land use change on river flow variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tao; Liu, Yuting; Yang, Xinyue; Wang, Xiang

2018-02-01

Land use scenario analysis, SWAT model, flow characteristic indices and flow variability technology were used to analyze the effect of land use quantity and location change on river flow. Results showed that river flow variation caused by land use change from forest to crop was larger than that caused by land use change from forest to grass; Land use change neither from upstream to downstream nor from downstream to upstream had little effect on annual average discharge and maximum annual average discharge. But it had obvious effect on maximum daily discharge; Land use change which occurred in upstream could lead to producing larger magnitude flood more easily; Land use change from forest to crop or grass could increase the number of large magnitude floods and their total duration. And it also could increase the number of small magnitude floods but decrease their duration.

Quaternary geology of the Channeled Scabland and adjacent areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, V. R.

1978-01-01

The quaternary history of the channeled scabland is characterized by discrete episodes of catastrophic flooding and prolonged periods of loess accumulation and soil formation. The loess sequence was correlated with Richmond's Rocky Mountain glacial chronology. At least five major catastrophic flood events occurred in the general vicinity of the channeled scabland. The earliest episode occurred prior to the extensive deposition of the Palouse formation. The last major episode of flooding occurred between about 18,000 and 13,000 years ago. It probably consisted of two outbursts from glacial Lake Missoula.

Probabilistic modelling of flood events using the entropy copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fan; Zheng, Qian

2016-11-01

The estimation of flood frequency is vital for the flood control strategies and hydraulic structure design. Generating synthetic flood events according to statistical properties of observations is one of plausible methods to analyze the flood frequency. Due to the statistical dependence among the flood event variables (i.e. the flood peak, volume and duration), a multidimensional joint probability estimation is required. Recently, the copula method is widely used for multivariable dependent structure construction, however, the copula family should be chosen before application and the choice process is sometimes rather subjective. The entropy copula, a new copula family, employed in this research proposed a way to avoid the relatively subjective process by combining the theories of copula and entropy. The analysis shows the effectiveness of the entropy copula for probabilistic modelling the flood events of two hydrological gauges, and a comparison of accuracy with the popular copulas was made. The Gibbs sampling technique was applied for trivariate flood events simulation in order to mitigate the calculation difficulties of extending to three dimension directly. The simulation results indicate that the entropy copula is a simple and effective copula family for trivariate flood simulation.

Comparing flood loss models of different complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Riggelsen, Carsten; Scherbaum, Frank; Merz, Bruno

2013-04-01

Any deliberation on flood risk requires the consideration of potential flood losses. In particular, reliable flood loss models are needed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures, to assess vulnerability, for comparative risk analysis and financial appraisal during and after floods. In recent years, considerable improvements have been made both concerning the data basis and the methodological approaches used for the development of flood loss models. Despite of that, flood loss models remain an important source of uncertainty. Likewise the temporal and spatial transferability of flood loss models is still limited. This contribution investigates the predictive capability of different flood loss models in a split sample cross regional validation approach. For this purpose, flood loss models of different complexity, i.e. based on different numbers of explaining variables, are learned from a set of damage records that was obtained from a survey after the Elbe flood in 2002. The validation of model predictions is carried out for different flood events in the Elbe and Danube river basins in 2002, 2005 and 2006 for which damage records are available from surveys after the flood events. The models investigated are a stage-damage model, the rule based model FLEMOps+r as well as novel model approaches which are derived using data mining techniques of regression trees and Bayesian networks. The Bayesian network approach to flood loss modelling provides attractive additional information concerning the probability distribution of both model predictions and explaining variables.

Simulation of extreme reservoir level distribution with the SCHADEX method (EXTRAFLO project)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Garavaglia, Federico

2013-04-01

The standard practice for the design of dam spillways structures and gates is to consider the maximum reservoir level reached for a given hydrologic scenario. This scenario has several components: peak discharge, flood volumes on different durations, discharge gradients etc. Within a probabilistic analysis framework, several scenarios can be associated with different return times, although a reference return level (e.g. 1000 years) is often prescribed by the local regulation rules or usual practice. Using continuous simulation method for extreme flood estimation is a convenient solution to provide a great variety of hydrological scenarios to feed a hydraulic model of dam operation: flood hydrographs are explicitly simulated by a rainfall-runoff model fed by a stochastic rainfall generator. The maximum reservoir level reached will be conditioned by the scale and the dynamics of the generated hydrograph, by the filling of the reservoir prior to the flood, and by the dam gates and spillway operation during the event. The simulation of a great number of floods will allow building a probabilistic distribution of maximum reservoir levels. A design value can be chosen at a definite return level. An alternative approach is proposed here, based on the SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation, proposed by Paquet et al. (2006, 2013). SCHADEX is a so-called "semi-continuous" stochastic simulation method in that flood events are simulated on an event basis and are superimposed on a continuous simulation of the catchment saturation hazard using rainfall-runoff modelling. The SCHADEX process works at the study time-step (e.g. daily), and the peak flow distribution is deduced from the simulated daily flow distribution by a peak-to-volume ratio. A reference hydrograph relevant for extreme floods is proposed. In the standard version of the method, both the peak-to-volume and the reference hydrograph are constant. An enhancement of this method is presented, with variable peak-to-volume ratios and hydrographs applied to each simulated event. This allows accounting for different flood dynamics, depending on the season, the generating precipitation event, the soil saturation state, etc. In both cases, a hydraulic simulation of dam operation is performed, in order to compute the distribution of maximum reservoir levels. Results are detailed for an extreme return level, showing that a 1000 years return level reservoir level can be reached during flood events whose components (peaks, volumes) are not necessarily associated with such return level. The presentation will be illustrated by the example of a fictive dam on the Tech River at Reynes (South of France, 477 km²). This study has been carried out within the EXTRAFLO project, Task 8 (https://extraflo.cemagref.fr/). References: Paquet, E., Gailhard, J. and Garçon, R. (2006), Evolution of the GRADEX method: improvement by atmospheric circulation classification and hydrological modeling, La Houille Blanche, 5, 80-90. doi:10.1051/lhb:2006091. Paquet, E., Garavaglia, F., Garçon, R. and Gailhard, J. (2012), The SCHADEX method: a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme food estimation, Journal of Hydrology, under revision

Flood Map for the Winooski River in Waterbury, Vermont, 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.

2015-01-01

High-water marks from Tropical Storm Irene were available for seven locations along the study reach. The highwater marks were used to estimate water-surface profiles and discharges resulting from Tropical Storm Irene throughout the study reach. From a comparison of the estimated water-surface profile for Tropical Storm Irene with the water-surface profiles for the 1- and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) floods, it was determined that the high-water elevations resulting from Tropical Storm Irene exceeded the estimated 1-percent AEP flood throughout the Winooski River study reach but did not exceed the estimated 0.2-percent AEP flood at any location within the study reach.

Probable peak discharges and erosion rates from southern California watersheds as influenced by fire

Treesearch

P.B. Rowe; C.M. Countryman; H.C. Storey

1949-01-01

Damages from floods and erosion have been a serious problem in southern California since early pioneer days. The problem is becoming even more serious as the rapidly increasing population and expanding industrial and agricultural development encroach upon the flood plains and extend up the steep slopes and into canyons of the nearby mountains. Protection of forest...

Development of flood profiles and flood-inundation maps for the Village of Killbuck, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ostheimer, Chad J.

2013-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for a reach of Killbuck Creek near the Village of Killbuck, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Holmes County, Ohio. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage Killbuck Creek near Killbuck (03139000) and were completed as part of an update to Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood-Insurance Study. The maps were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. The digital maps also have been submitted for inclusion in the data libraries of the USGS interactive Flood Inundation Mapper. Data from the streamgage can be used by emergency-management personnel, in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps, to help determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles for selected reaches were prepared by calibrating a steady-state step-backwater model to an established streamgage rating curve. The step-backwater model then was used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for 10 flood stages at the streamgage with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately the 50- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities. The computed flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate flood-inundation areas.

Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Weiss-Motz, Alexander; Martina, Mario L. V.; Kreibich, Heidi

2018-05-01

Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk assessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is often neglected. Most models available in the literature are deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopting any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision-making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model ensembles to address these issues. This approach, which has been applied successfully in other scientific fields, is based on the combination of different model outputs with the aim of improving the skill and usefulness of predictions. We first propose a model rating framework to support ensemble construction, based on a probability tree of model properties, which establishes relative degrees of belief between candidate models. Using 20 flood loss models in two test cases, we then construct numerous multi-model ensembles, based both on the rating framework and on a stochastic method, differing in terms of participating members, ensemble size and model weights. We evaluate the performance of ensemble means, as well as their probabilistic skill and reliability. Our results demonstrate that well-designed multi-model ensembles represent a pragmatic approach to consistently obtain more accurate flood loss estimates and reliable probability distributions of model uncertainty.

PMP Documents-HDSC/OWP

Science.gov Websites

Hydrometeorological Report No. 39 Probable Maximum Precipitation in the Hawaiian Islands 1963 Hydrometeorological Report No. 41 Probable Maximum and TVA Precipitation over the Tennessee River Basin above Chattanooga 1965 Hydrometeorological Report No. 46 Probable Maximum Precipitation, Mekong River Basin 1970

Mapping Coastal Flood Zones for the National Flood Insurance Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlton, D.; Cook, C. L.; Weber, J.

2004-12-01

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created by Congress in 1968, and significantly amended in 1973 to reduce loss of life and property caused by flooding, reduce disaster relief costs caused by flooding and make Federally backed flood insurance available to property owners. These goals were to be achieved by requiring building to be built to resist flood damages, guide construction away from flood hazards, and transferring the cost of flood losses from taxpayers to policyholders. Areas subject to flood hazards were defined as those areas that have a probability greater than 1 percent of being inundated in any given year. Currently over 19,000 communities participate in the NFIP, many of them coastal communities subject to flooding from tides, storm surge, waves, or tsunamis. The mapping of coastal hazard areas began in the early 1970's and has been evolving ever since. At first only high tides and storm surge were considered in determining the hazardous areas. Then, after significant wave caused storm damage to structures outside of the mapped hazard areas wave hazards were also considered. For many years FEMA has had Guidelines and Specifications for mapping coastal hazards for the East Coast and the Gulf Coast. In September of 2003 a study was begun to develop similar Guidelines and Specifications for the Pacific Coast. Draft Guidelines and Specifications will be delivered to FEMA by September 30, 2004. During the study tsunamis were identified as a potential source of a 1 percent flood event on the West Coast. To better understand the analytical results, and develop adequate techniques to estimate the magnitude of a tsunami with a 1 percent probability of being equaled or exceeded in any year, a pilot study has begun at Seaside Oregon. Both the onshore velocity and the resulting wave runup are critical functions for FEMA to understand and potentially map. The pilot study is a cooperative venture between NOAA and USGS that is partially funded by both agencies and by FEMA. The results of the pilot study will help FEMA determine when tsunamis should be considered in mapping coastal hazards, how to predict their impact, how they should be mapped and possibly the construction standards for zones mapped as having a 1 percent or greater chance of suffering a tsunami.

Artificialized land characteristics and sediment connectivity explain muddy flood hazard in Wallonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Walque, Baptiste; Bielders, Charles; Degré, Aurore; Maugnard, Alexandre

2017-04-01

Muddy flood occurrence is an off-site erosion problem of growing interest in Europe and in particular in the loess belt and Condroz regions of Wallonia (Belgium). In order to assess the probability of occurrence of muddy floods in specific places, a muddy flood hazard prediction model has been built. It was used to test 11 different explanatory variables in simple and multiple logistic regressions approaches. A database of 442 muddy flood-affected sites and an equal number of homologous non flooded sites was used. For each site, relief, land use, sediment production and sediment connectivity of the contributing area were extracted. To assess the prediction quality of the model, we proceeded to a validation using 48 new pairs of homologous sites. Based on Akaïke Information Criterion (AIC), we determined that the best muddy flood hazard assessment model requires a total of 6 explanatory variable as inputs: the spatial aggregation of the artificialized land, the sediment connectivity, the artificialized land proximity to the outlet, the proportion of artificialized land, the mean slope and the Gravelius index of compactness of the contributive area. The artificialized land properties listed above showed to improve substantially the model quality (p-values from 10e-10 to 10e-4). All of the 3 properties showed negative correlation with the muddy flood hazard. These results highlight the importance of considering the artificialized land characteristics in the sediment transport assessment models. Indeed, artificialized land such as roads may dramatically deviate flows and influence the connectivity in the landscape. Besides the artificialized land properties, the sediment connectivity showed significant explanatory power (p-value of 10e-11). A positive correlation between the sediment connectivity and the muddy flood hazard was found, ranging from 0.3 to 0.45 depending on the sediment connectivity index. Several studies already have highlighted the importance of this parameter in the sediment transport characterization in the landscape. Using the best muddy flood probability of occurrence threshold value of 0.49, the validation of the best multiple logistic regression resulted in a prediction quality of 75.6% (original dataset) and 81.2% (secondary dataset). The developed statistical model could be used as a reliable tool to target muddy floods mitigation measures in sites resulting with the highest muddy floods hazard.

Geomorphic change caused by outburst floods and debris flows at Mount Rainier, Washington, with emphasis on Tahoma Creek valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; Driedger, C.L.

1994-01-01

Debris flows have caused rapid geomorphic change in several glacierized drainages on Mount Rainier, Washington. Nearly all of these flows began as glacial outburst floods, then transformed to debris flows by incorporating large masses of sediment in channel reaches where streams have incised proglacial sediments and stagnant glacier ice. This stagnant ice is a relic of advanced glacier positions achieved during the mid-nineteenth century Little Ice Age maximum and the readvance of the 1960's and 1970's. Debris flows have been especially important agents of geomorphic change along Tahoma Creek, which drains South Tahoma Glacier. Debris flows in Tahoma Creek valley have transported downstream about 107 m3 Of sediment since 1967, causing substantial aggradation and damage to roads and facilities in Mount Rainier National Park. The average denudation rate in the upper part of the Tahoma Creek drainage basin in the same period has been extraordinarily high: more than 20 millimeters per year, a value exceeded only rarely in basins affected by debris flows. However, little or none of this sediment has yet passed out of the Tahoma Creek drainage basin. Outburst floods from South Tahoma Glacier form by release of subglacially stored water. The volume of stored water discharged during a typical outburst flood would form a layer several tens of millimeters thick over the bed of the entire glacier, though it is more likely that large linked cavities account for most of the storage. Statistical analysis shows that outburst floods usually occur during periods of atypically hot or rainy weather in summer or early autumn, and that the probability of an outburst increases with temperature (a proxy measure of ablation rate) or rainfall rate. On the basis of these results, we suggest that outburst floods are triggered when rapid input of water to the glacier bed causes transient increase in water pressure, thereby destabilizing the linked-cavity system. The probabilistic nature of the relation between water-input rate and outburst-flood occurrence suggests that the connections between englacial conduits, basal cavities and main meltwater channels may vary temporally. The correlation between outburst floods and meteorological factors casts doubt on an earlier hypothesis that melting around geothermal vents triggers outburst floods from South Tahoma Glacier. The likelihood that outburst floods from South Tahoma Glacier will trigger debris flows should decrease with time, as the deeply incised reach of Tahoma Creek widens by normal slope processes and stagnant ice decays. Drawing analogies to the geomorphic evolution of a reach of Tahoma Creek first incised by an outburst flood in 1967, we suggest the present period of debris-flow activity along Tahoma Creek will last about 25 years, that is, until about the year 2010. Comparison of geomorphic change at Tahoma Creek to that in two other glacierized alphine basins indicates that debris-rich stagnant ice can be an importantsource of sediment to debris flows as long as floods are frequent or channel slope is great.

Two-dimensional simulation of the June 11, 2010, flood of the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike Recreational Area, Ouachita National Forest, Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Daniel M.

2013-01-01

In the early morning hours of June 11, 2010, substantial flooding occurred at Albert Pike Recreation Area in the Ouachita National Forest of west-central Arkansas, killing 20 campers. The U.S. Forest Service needed information concerning the extent and depth of flood inundation, the water velocity, and flow paths throughout Albert Pike Recreation Area for the flood and for streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent. The two-dimensional flow model Fst2DH, part of the Federal Highway Administration’s Finite Element Surface-water Modeling System, and the graphical user interface Surface-water Modeling System (SMS) were used to perform a steady-state simulation of the flood in a 1.5-mile reach of the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike Recreation Area. Peak streamflows of the Little Missouri River and tributary Brier Creek served as inputs to the simulation, which was calibrated to the surveyed elevations of high-water marks left by the flood and then used to predict flooding that would result from streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent. The simulated extent of the June 11, 2010, flood matched the observed extent of flooding at Albert Pike Recreation Area. The mean depth of inundation in the camp areas was 8.5 feet in Area D, 7.4 feet in Area C, 3.8 feet in Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area, and 12.5 feet in Lowry’s Camp Albert Pike. The mean water velocity was 7.2 feet per second in Area D, 7.6 feet per second in Area C, 7.2 feet per second in Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area, and 7.6 feet per second in Lowry’s Camp Albert Pike. A sensitivity analysis indicated that varying the streamflow of the Little Missouri River had the greatest effect on simulated water-surface elevation, while varying the streamflow of tributary Brier Creek had the least effect. Simulated water-surface elevations were lower than those modeled by the U.S. Forest Service using the standard-step method, but the comparison between the two was favorable with a mean absolute difference of 0.58 feet in Area C and 0.32 feet in Area D. Results of a HEC-RAS model of the Little Missouri River watershed upstream from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station near Langley showed no difference in mean depth in the areas in common between the models, and a difference in mean velocity of only 0.5 foot per second. Predictions of flooding that would result from streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent indicated that the extent of inundation of the June 11, 2010, flood exceeded that of the 1 percent flood, and that for both the 1 and 2 percent floods, all of Areas C and D, and parts of Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area were inundated. Predicted water-surface elevations for the 1 and 2 percent floods were approximately 1 foot lower than those predicted by the U.S. Forest Service using a standard-step model.

Detecting seasonal flood changes in the Upper Danube River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohnová, Silvia; Jeneiová, Katarína; Parajka, Juraj; Hall, Julia; Marková, Romana

2017-04-01

Due to a number of large-scale floods observed worldwide in recent years, the analysis of changes in long-term hydrological time series is becoming increasingly important. This study focuses on the Upper Danube region, which was struck by many flood events in the past decade. The flood seasonality of the study region, defined as the area of Germany, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Austria and Slovakia, is examined to interpret the dominant flood processes. A spatial assessment of the seasonality indices of the annual maximum discharges and the seasonal discharges (derived from daily average discharges) was conducted for 117 gauging stations. Hot spots for potential changes in the mean dates of occurrence of the discharges were identified, and the results were linked with derived spatial characteristics for the catchments. The first results of the study of the seasonal discharges revealed that the variability of occurrence of summer floods is higher than winter floods in lowlands of the upper Danube catchment. In high Alpine catchments the winter floods variability of occurrence is the same or higher than for the summer floods. The summer season floods tend to appear for all catchment sizes in the same time period. With increased magnitude of floods in the summer season, the variability of occurrence of the floods is higher.

An investigation of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) structure influence on flood modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahid; Nurrohman, A. W.; Hadi, M. P.

2018-04-01

Flood is one of the natural calamities that cause huge losses and damages. Flood hazard zonation has been widely produced to face the impact of the disaster. DEM as the primary data to construct the earth surface has been developed from rough to fine resolution. Aster GDEM v.2 within 1arc spatial resolution has an ability to derived DEM and TIN data as bases river geometrics data. Maximum daily peak discharges used to calculate flood peak discharge. Furthermore, steady flow analysis has been used to produce flood inundation model based on four scenarios with return periods 5yr, 10yr, 50yr, and 100yr. The model results have been validated using UAV flood map in 2016 by means of pixel by pixel operation and the result shows that the vertical variance between grid DEM and TIN data about 0.3 m.

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Firth quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubbard, Larry L.; Bartells, John H.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Firth quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Rose quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartells, John H.; Hubbard, Larry L.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Rose quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Rexburg quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harenberg, W.A.; Bigelow, B.B.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification on these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Rexburg quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Deer Parks quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Herman A.; Bennett, C. Michael; Records, Andrew W.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Deer Parks quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Parker quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Cecil Albert; Ray, Herman A.

1976-01-01

The failure of Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls, Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Parker quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, St. Anthony quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Cecil A.; Ray, Herman A.; Matthai, Howard F.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the St. Anthony quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Woodville quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matthai, Howard F.; Ray, Herman A.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Woodville quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Menan Buttes quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Cecil A.; Ray, Herman A.; Harenberg, William A.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Menan Buttes quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Idaho Falls South quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Herman A.; Matthai, Howard F.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Idaho Falls South quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Lewisville quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Herman A.; Bigelow, Bruce B.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Lewisville quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Idaho Falls North quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Herman A.; Matthai, Howard F.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Idaho Falls North quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Pingree quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubbard, Larry L.; Bartells, John H.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Pingree quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Blackfoot quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartells, J.H.; Hubbard, Larry L.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Blackfoot quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Moreland quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubbard, Larry L.; Bartells, John H.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The aea covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Moreland quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Rigby quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Herman A.; Bigelow, Bruce B.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Rigby quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Newdale quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Herman A.; Matthai, Howard F.; Thomas, Cecil A.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Newdale quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Teton Dam flood of June 1976, Moody quadrangle, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harenberg, William A.; Bigelow, Bruce B.

1976-01-01

The failure of the Teton Dam caused extreme flooding along the Teton River, Henrys Fork, and Snake River in southeastern Idaho on June 5-8, 1976. No flooding occurred downstream from American Falls Reservoir. The inundated areas and maximum water-surface elevations are shown in a series of 17 hydrologic atlases. The area covered by the atlases extends from Teton Dam downstream to American Falls Reservoir, a distance of 100 miles. The extent of flooding shown on the maps was obtained by field inspections and aerial photographs made during and immediately after the flood. There may be small isolated areas within the boundaries shown that were not flooded, but the identification of these sites was beyond the scope of the study. The elevation data shown are mean-sea-level elevations of high-water marks identified in the field. This particular map (in the 17-map series) shows conditions in the Moody quadrangle. (Woodard-USGS)

Flood Frequency Analysis With Historical and Paleoflood Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stedinger, Jery R.; Cohn, Timothy A.

1986-05-01

An investigation is made of flood quantile estimators which can employ "historical" and paleoflood information in flood frequency analyses. Two categories of historical information are considered: "censored" data, where the magnitudes of historical flood peaks are known; and "binomial" data, where only threshold exceedance information is available. A Monte Carlo study employing the two-parameter lognormal distribution shows that maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) can extract the equivalent of an additional 10-30 years of gage record from a 50-year period of historical observation. The MLE routines are shown to be substantially better than an adjusted-moment estimator similar to the one recommended in Bulletin 17B of the United States Water Resources Council Hydrology Committee (1982). The MLE methods performed well even when floods were drawn from other than the assumed lognormal distribution.

Heterogeneous Data Fusion Methods for Disaster Risk Assessment using Grid Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

2014-05-01

In recent years, a risk-oriented approach to manage disasters has been adopted. Risk is a function of two arguments: hazard probability and vulnerability [1]. In order to assess flood risk, for example, aggregation of heterogeneous data acquired from multiple sources is required. Outputs from hydrological and hydraulic models make it possible to predict floods; in situ observations such as river level and flows are used for early warning and models calibration. Remote sensing observations can be effectively used for rapid mapping in case of emergencies, and can be assimilated into models. One point that is mutual for all datasets is their geospatial nature. In order to enable operational assessment of disaster risk, appropriate technology is necessary. In this paper we discuss different strategies to heterogeneous data fusion and show their application in the domain of disaster monitoring and risk assessment. In particular, two case-studies are presented. The first one focuses on the use of time-series of satellite imagery to flood hazard mapping and flood risk assessment. Flooded areas are extracted from satellite images to generate a maximum flood extent image for each flood event. These maps are fused to determine relative frequency of inundation (RFI) [2]. The RFI values are compared to relative water depth generated from the LISFLOOD-FP model. The model is calibrated against the satellite-derived flood extent. The model with different combinations of Manning's parameters was run in the Grid environment at Space Research Institute NASU-SSAU [3], and the optimal set of parameters was found. It is shown that RFI and water depth exhibit the same probabilistic distribution which is confirmed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Therefore, it justifies the use of RFI values for risk assessment. The second case-study deals with quantitative estimation of drought risk in Ukraine based on satellite data. Drought hazard mapping is performed based on the use of vegetation health index (VHI) derived from NOAA satellites, and the extreme value theory techniques. Drought vulnerability is assessed by estimating the crop areas and crop yield to quantify potential impact of a drought on crop production. Finally, drought hazard and vulnerability maps are fused to derive a drought risk map. [1] N.N. Kussul, B.V. Sokolov, Y.I. Zyelyk, V.A. Zelentsov, S.V. Skakun, and A.Yu. Shelestov, "Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Heterogeneous Geospatial Information," J. of Autom. and Inf. Sci., 42(12), pp. 32-45, 2010. [2] S. Skakun, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, and O. Kussul, "Flood Hazard and Flood Risk Assessment Using a Time Series of Satellite Images: A Case Study in Namibia," Risk Analysis, 2013, doi: 10.1111/risa.12156. [3] L. Hluchy, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, S. Skakun, O. Kravchenko, Y. Gripich, P. Kopp, E. Lupian, "The Data Fusion Grid Infrastructure: Project Objectives and Achievements," Computing and Informatics, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 319-334, 2010.

Regional Variation in Gravel Riverbed Mobility, Controlled by Hydrologic Regime and Sediment Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeiffer, Allison M.; Finnegan, Noah J.

2018-04-01

The frequency and intensity of riverbed mobility are of paramount importance to the inhabitants of river ecosystems as well as to the evolution of bed surface structure. Because sediment supply varies by orders of magnitude across North America, the intensity of bedload transport varies by over an order of magnitude. Climate also varies widely across the continent, yielding a range of flood timing, duration, and intermittency. Together, the differences in sediment supply and hydroclimate result in diverse regimes of bed surface stability. To quantitatively characterize this regional variation, we calculate multidecadal time series of estimated bed surface mobility for 29 rivers using sediment transport equations. We use these data to compare predicted bed mobility between rivers and regions. There are statistically significant regional differences in the (a) exceedance probability of bed-mobilizing flows (W* > 0.002), (b) maximum bed mobility, and (c) number of discrete bed-mobilizing events in a year.

Current subsidence rates due to compaction of Holocene sediments in southern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meckel, T.A.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Williams, S.J.

2006-01-01

Relative contributions of geologic and anthropogenic processes to subsidence of southern Louisiana are vigorously debated. Of these, shallow sediment compaction is often considered dominant, although this has never been directly observed or effectively demonstrated. Quantitative understanding of subsidence is important for predicting relative sea level rise, storm surge flooding due to hurricanes, and for successful wetland restoration. Despite many shallow borings, few appropriate stratigraphic and geotechnical data are available for site-specific calculations. We overcome this by determining present compaction rates from Monte Carlo simulations of the incremental sedimentation and compaction of stratigraphies typical of the Holocene of southern Louisiana. This approach generates distributions of present compaction rates that are not expected to exceed 5 mm/yr, but may locally. Locations with present subsidence rates greater than the predicted maximum probable shallow compaction rates are likely influenced by additional processes.

Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng

2018-05-01

This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.

Simulation of Flood Profiles for Fivemile Creek at Tarrant, Alabama, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, K.G.; Hedgecock, T.S.

2007-01-01

A one-dimensional step-backwater model was used to simulate flooding conditions for Fivemile Creek at Tarrant, Alabama. The 100-year flood stage published in the current flood insurance study for Tarrant by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was significantly exceeded by the March 2000 and May 2003 floods in this area. A peak flow of 14,100 cubic feet per second was computed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the May 2003 flood in the vicinity of Lawson Road. Using this estimated peak flow, flood-plain surveys with associated roughness coefficients, and the surveyed high-water profile for the May 2003 flood, a flow model was calibrated to closely match this known event. The calibrated model was then used to simulate flooding for the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval floods. The results indicate that for the 100-year recurrence interval, the flood profile is about 2.5 feet higher, on average, than the profile published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The absolute maximum and minimum difference is 6.80 feet and 0.67 foot, respectively. All water-surface elevations computed for the 100-year flood are higher than those published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, except for cross section H. The results of this study provide the community with flood-profile information that can be used for existing flood-plain mitigation, future development, and safety plans for the city.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges and largest recorded floods for unregulated streams in rural Missouri.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

Regression analysis techniques were used to develop a : set of equations for rural ungaged stream sites for estimating : discharges with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent : annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to : ann...

Ensemble tropical-extratropical cyclone coastal flood hazard assessment with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orton, P. M.; Lin, N.; Colle, B.

2016-12-01

A challenge with quantifying future changes in coastal flooding for the U.S. East Coast is that climate change has varying effects on different types of storms, in addition to raising mean sea levels. Moreover, future flood hazard uncertainties are large and come from many sources. Here, a new coastal flood hazard assessment approach is demonstrated that separately evaluates and then combines probabilities of storm tide generated from tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs). The separation enables us to incorporate climate change impacts on both types of storms. The assessment accounts for epistemic storm tide uncertainty using an ensemble of different prior studies and methods of assessment, merged with uncertainty in climate change effects on storm tides and sea levels. The assessment is applied for New York Harbor, under the auspices of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). In the New York Bight region and much of the U.S. East Coast, differing flood exceedance curve slopes for TCs and ETCs arise due to their differing physics. It is demonstrated how errors can arise for this region from mixing together storm types in an extreme value statistical analysis, a common practice when using observations. The effects of climate change on TC and ETC flooding have recently been assessed for this region, for TCs using a Global Climate Model (GCM) driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic modeling, and for ETCs using a GCM-driven multilinear regression-based storm surge model. The results of these prior studies are applied to our central estimates of the flood exceedance curve probabilities, transforming them for climate change effects. The results are useful for decision-makers because they highlight the large uncertainty in present-day and future flood risk, and also for scientists because they identify the areas where further research is most needed.

Streambed scour evaluations and conditions at selected bridge sites in Alaska, 2013–15

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beebee, Robin A.; Dworsky, Karenth L.; Knopp, Schyler J.

2017-12-27

Streambed scour potential was evaluated at 52 river- and stream-spanning bridges in Alaska that lack a quantitative scour analysis or have unknown foundation details. All sites were evaluated for stream stability and long-term scour potential. Contraction scour and abutment scour were calculated for 52 bridges, and pier scour was calculated for 11 bridges that had piers. Vertical contraction (pressure flow) scour was calculated for sites where the modeled water surface was higher than the superstructure of the bridge. In most cases, hydraulic models of the 1- and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods (also known as the 100- and 500-year floods, respectively) were used to derive hydraulic variables for the scour calculations. Alternate flood values were used in scour calculations for sites where smaller floods overtopped a bridge or where standard flood-frequency estimation techniques did not apply. Scour also was calculated for large recorded floods at 13 sites.Channel instability at 11 sites was related to human activities (in-channel mining, dredging, and channel relocation). Eight of the dredged sites are located on active unstable alluvial fans and were graded to protect infrastructure. The trend toward aggradation during major floods at these sites reduces confidence in scour estimates.Vertical contraction and pressure flow occurred during the 0.2-percent or smaller annual exceedance probability floods at eight sites. Contraction scour exceeded 5 feet (ft) at four sites, and total scour at piers (pier scour plus contraction scour) exceeded 5 ft at four sites. Debris accumulation increased calculated pier scour at six sites by an average of 2.4 ft. Total scour at abutments exceeded 5 ft at 10 sites. Scour estimates seemed excessive at two piers where equations did not account for channel armoring, and at four abutments where failure of the embankment and attendant channel widening would reduce scour.

Socio-hydrological modelling of floods: investigating community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciullo, Alessio; Viglione, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio

2016-04-01

Changes in flood risk occur because of changes in climate and hydrology, and in societal exposure and vulnerability. Research on change in flood risk has demonstrated that the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies has to be taken into account in flood risk management. The present work builds on an existing conceptual model of an hypothetical city located in the proximity of a river, along whose floodplains the community evolves over time. The model reproduces the dynamic co-evolution of four variables: flooding, population density of the flooplain, amount of structural protection measures and memory of floods. These variables are then combined in a way to mimic the temporal change of community resilience, defined as the (inverse of the) amount of time for the community to recover from a shock, and adaptation capacity, defined as ratio between damages due to subsequent events. Also, temporal changing exposure, vulnerability and probability of flooding are also modelled, which results in a dynamically varying flood-risk. Examples are provided that show how factors such as collective memory and risk taking attitude influence the dynamics of community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk.

Extreme multi-basin flooding linked with extra-tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Luca, Paolo; Hillier, John K.; Wilby, Robert L.; Quinn, Nevil W.; Harrigan, Shaun

2017-11-01

Fluvial floods are typically investigated as ‘events’ at the single basin-scale, hence flood management authorities may underestimate the threat of flooding across multiple basins driven by large-scale and nearly concurrent atmospheric event(s). We pilot a national-scale statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme multi-basin flooding (MBF) episodes, using peak river flow data for 260 basins in Great Britain (1975-2014), a sentinel region for storms impacting northwest and central Europe. During the most widespread MBF episode, 108 basins (~46% of the study area) recorded annual maximum (AMAX) discharge within a 16 day window. Such episodes are associated with persistent cyclonic and westerly atmospheric circulations, atmospheric rivers, and precipitation falling onto previously saturated ground, leading to hydrological response times <40 h and documented flood impacts. Furthermore, peak flows tend to occur after 0-13 days of very severe gales causing combined and spatially-distributed, yet differentially time-lagged, wind and flood damages. These findings have implications for emergency responders, insurers and contingency planners worldwide.

Erosional and depositional changes wrought by the flood of May 1978 in the channels of Powder River, southeastern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meade, Robert H.; Moody, John A.

2013-01-01

Powder River’s second largest flood of record (1919–2012) moved through northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana during May 1978. Within a ninety-kilometer reach of the channel in southeastern Montana, the most prominent planform effects of the flood were the growth of meander bends by bank erosion (this was most intense just downriver of bend apexes, causing 1–2 channel widths of lateral displacement) and the erosion of new cutoff channels through the necks of two large and two small meanders. Surveys of cross sections, made before and after the flood, show the responses of the channel to the flood waters, which ranged from minimal (bedrock control) to large (maximum channel curvature in unconsolidated bank and terrace deposits). Geomorphic work done during two weeks of extreme flooding in May 1978, as measured by cross-channel erosion and new sediment deposition, was approximately equal in magnitude to the work done during the two decades (1978–1998) that followed the flood.

Are equilibrium multichannel networks predictable? The case of the regulated Indus River, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carling, P. A.; Trieu, H.; Hornby, D. D.; Huang, He Qing; Darby, S. E.; Sear, D. A.; Hutton, C.; Hill, C.; Ali, Z.; Ahmed, A.; Iqbal, I.; Hussain, Z.

2018-02-01

Arguably, the current planform behaviour of the Indus River is broadly predictable. Between Chashma and Taunsa, Pakistan, the Indus is a 264-km-long multiple-channel reach. Remote sensing imagery, encompassing major floods in 2007 and 2010, shows that the Indus has a minimum of two and a maximum of nine channels, with on average four active channels during the dry season and five during the annual monsoon. Thus, the network structure, if not detailed planform, remains stable even for the record 2010 flood (27,100 m3 s- 1; recurrence interval > 100 years). Bankline recession is negligible for discharges less than a peak annual discharge of 6000 m3 s- 1 ( 80% of mean annual flood). The Maximum Flow Efficiency (MFE) principle demonstrates that the channel network is insensitive to the monsoon floods, which typically peak at 13,200 m3 s- 1. Rather, the network is in near-equilibrium with the mean annual flood (7530 m3 s- 1). The MFE principle indicates that stable networks have three to four channels, thus the observed stability in the number of active channels accords with the presence of a near-equilibrium reach-scale channel network. Insensitivity to the annual hydrological cycle demonstrates that the timescale for network adjustment is much longer than the timescale of the monsoon hydrograph, with the annual excess water being stored on floodplains rather than being conveyed in an enlarged channel network. The analysis explains the lack of significant channel adjustment following the largest flood in 40 years and the extensive Indus flooding experienced on an annual basis, with its substantial impacts on the populace and agricultural production.

Release of Volatiles During North Atlantic Flood Basalt Volcanism and Correlation to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedersen, J. M.; Tegner, C.; Kent, A. J.; Ulrich, T.

2017-12-01

The opening of the North Atlantic Ocean between Greenland and Norway during the lower Tertiary led to intense flood basalt volcanism and the emplacement of the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP). The volcanism is temporally overlapping with the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), but ash stratigraphy and geochronology suggests that the main flood basalt sequence in East Greenland postdates the PETM. Significant environmental changes during the PETM have been attributed to the release of CO2 or methane gas due to either extensive melting of hydrates at the ocean floor or as a consequence of the interaction of mantle derived magmas with carbon rich sediments.Estimates suggest that a minimum of 1.8x106 km3 of basaltic lava erupted during North Atlantic flood basalt volcanism. Based on measurements of melt inclusions from the flood basalts our preliminary calculations suggest that approximately 2300 Gt of SO2 and 600 Gt of HCl were released into the atmosphere. Calculated yearly fluxes approach 23 Mt/y SO2 and 6 Mt/y HCl. These estimates are regarded as conservative.The S released into to the atmosphere during flood basalt volcanism can form acid aerosols that absorb and reflect solar radiation, causing an effective cooling effect. The climatic effects of the release of Cl into the atmosphere are not well constrained, but may be an important factor for extinction scenarios due to destruction of the ozone layer.The climatic changes due to the release of S and Cl in these amounts, and for periods extending for hundred thousand of years, although not yet fully constrained are likely to be significant. One consequence of the North Atlantic flood basalt volcanism may have been the initiation of global cooling to end the PETM.

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gonzalez, F.I.; Geist, E.L.; Jaffe, B.; Kanoglu, U.; Mofjeld, H.; Synolakis, C.E.; Titov, V.V.; Areas, D.; Bellomo, D.; Carlton, D.; Horning, T.; Johnson, J.; Newman, J.; Parsons, T.; Peters, R.; Peterson, C.; Priest, G.; Venturato, A.; Weber, J.; Wong, F.; Yalciner, A.

2009-01-01

The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Flooding Risk Assessment for the Region of Neva Bay and Saint-Petersburg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, A.; Nikitin, O.

2006-12-01

Sea level evaluations in the region of Saint-Petersburg, Russia, well known as "Neva Flooding" is the great scientific problem. This process has been investigated by various researchers for many tens of years. But they have not come to consideration regarding its nature. There are numerous factors responsible to extreme sea level rise in this location, and it is impossible to assess properly their individual and combine effect. In this Abstract the approach and primary results of the work are given. We tried to solve the task of flooding risk assessment in Neva Bay and Saint-Petersburg from the probability theory point of view. Sea level rise is considered as a stochastic process. To assess probable risk of a flooding the statistical game theory is used. There are two players in common statistical game. Each of them has the set of strategies that are used in the game. Who fails must pay. In our case one player is the Nature and the other is the Oceanographer, he chooses certain strategy to avoid flood consequences or minimize them. The Nature is the irrational and unpredictable player who has infinity set of strategies or certain conditions. But the choose of a condition is the subject of Monte Carlo model, and the Oceanographer can obtain some information about this model or Nature's behavior, that determined by the probability distribution of Nature's conditions. The main Oceanographer task is to take an optimal policy for various coastal objects regarding their protection characteristics, so that from one hand do not lose in quality and, from the other hand, do not raise its price. The policies are found out depending on some parameter that determined by the Nature condition. In our task this parameter is the evaluation of sea level near the coastal object. For the Nature condition we assumed the integral atmospheric characteristic that most completely expresses the synoptic state responsible for flooding. This characteristic includes all the cyclone parameters: its depth, size, shape, maximal pressure gradient, its direction and velocity, and the wind speed and direction. Regarding all these characteristics we calibrated all the cyclones using atmospheric reanalysis for 1979 now days and placed each cyclone near certain level evaluation using in-situ observations. This allows to predict certain man policies regarding flooding protection depending on cyclone type.

44 CFR 61.6 - Maximum amounts of coverage available.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Maximum amounts of coverage available. 61.6 Section 61.6 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE...

44 CFR 61.6 - Maximum amounts of coverage available.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Maximum amounts of coverage available. 61.6 Section 61.6 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE...

44 CFR 61.6 - Maximum amounts of coverage available.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Maximum amounts of coverage available. 61.6 Section 61.6 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE...

44 CFR 61.6 - Maximum amounts of coverage available.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Maximum amounts of coverage available. 61.6 Section 61.6 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program INSURANCE...

Flood of September 12-13, 1982 in Gibson, Carroll, and Madison Counties, western Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, Clarence H.; Gamble, Charles R.; Bingham, Roy H.

1986-01-01

Intense rainfall on September 12-13, 1982, caused severe local flooding along many streams in Gibson County in western Tennessee. The rainfall resulted from remnants of Hurricane Chris combining with a cool front moving across the western half of the State. A maximum 1-hr rainfall intensity of 3.3 in was recorded at Humboldt. Peak discharge exceeded the 100-yr flood on many small streams. The floods caused three deaths and about 15.3 million dollars damage to crops, roads and bridges, businesses, and residential areas. Long-time residents of Gibson County reported that stream stages have not been as high since at least 1922. (USGS)

Model simulations of potential contribution of the proposed Huangpu Gate to flood control in the Lake Taihu basin of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hanghui; Liu, Shuguang; Ye, Jianchun; Yeh, Pat J.-F.

2017-10-01

The Lake Taihu basin (36 895 km2), one of the most developed regions in China located in the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, has experienced increasing flood risk. The largest flood in history occurred in 1999 with a return period estimate of 200 years, considerably larger than the current capacity of the flood defense with a design return period of 50 years. Due to its flat saucer-like terrain, the capacity of the flood control system in this basin depends on flood control infrastructures and peripheral tidal conditions. The Huangpu River, an important river of the basin connecting Lake Taihu upstream and Yangtze River estuaries downstream, drains two-fifths of the entire basin. Since the water level in the Huangpu River is significantly affected by the high tide conditions in estuaries, constructing an estuary gate is considered an effective solution for flood mitigation. The main objective of this paper is to assess the potential contributions of the proposed Huangpu Gate to the flood control capacity of the basin. To achieve this goal, five different scenarios of flooding conditions and the associated gate operations are considered by using numerical model simulations. Results of quantitative analyses show that the Huangpu Gate is effective for evacuating floodwaters. It can help to reduce both peak values and duration of high water levels in Lake Taihu to benefit surrounding areas along the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River. The contribution of the gate to the flood control capacity is closely associated with its operation modes and duration. For the maximum potential contribution of the gate, the net outflow at the proposed site is increased by 52 %. The daily peak level is decreased by a maximum of 0.12 m in Lake Taihu, by maxima of 0.26-0.37 and 0.46-0.60 m in the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River, respectively, and by 0.05-0.39 m in the surrounding areas depending on the local topography. It is concluded that the proposed Huangpu Gate can reduce flood risk in the Lake Taihu basin, especially in those low-lying surrounding areas along the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River significantly, which is of great benefit to the flood management in the basin and the Yangtze River Delta.

Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

2017-12-01

Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

Outburst floods from glacier-dammed lakes: The effect of mode of lake drainage on flood magnitude

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; Costa, J.E.

1996-01-01

Published accounts of outburst floods from glacier-dammed lakes show that a significant number of such floods are associated not with drainage through a tunnel incised into the basal ice - the process generally assumed - but rather with ice-marginal drainage, mechanical failure of part of the ice dam, or both. Non-tunnel floods are strongly correlated with formation of an ice dam by a glacier advancing from a tributary drainage into either a main river valley or a pre-existing body of water (lake or fiord). For a given lake volume, non-tunnel floods tend to have significantly higher peak discharges than tunnel-drainage floods. Statistical analysis of data for floods associated with subglacial tunnels yields the following empirical relation between lake volume V and peak discharge script Q signp : script Q signp = 46V0.66 (r2 = 0.70), when script Q signp is expressed in metres per second and V in millions of cubic metres. This updates the so-called Clague-Mathews relation. For non-tunnel floods, the analogous relation is script Q signp = 1100V0.44 (r2 = 0.58). The latter relation is close to one found by Costa (1988) for failure of constructed earthen dams. This closeness is probably not coincidental but rather reflects similarities in modes of dam failure and lake drainage. We develop a simple physical model of the breach-widening process for non-tunnel floods, assuming that (1) the rate of breach widening is controlled by melting of the ice, (2) outflow from the lake is regulated by the hydraulic condition of critical flow where water enters the breach, and (3) the effect of lake temperature may be dealt with as done by Clarke (1982). Calculations based on the model simulate quite well outbursts from Lake George, Alaska. Dimensional analysis leads to two approximations of the form script Q signp ??? Vqf(hi, ??0), where q = 0.5 to 0.6, hi is initial lake depth, ??0 is lake temperature, and the form of f(hi, ??0) depends on the relative importance of viscous dissipation and the lake's thermal energy in determining the rate of breach opening. These expressions, along with the regression relations, should prove useful for assessing the probable magnitude of breach-type outburst floods.

A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei

2017-11-01

Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

Review article: A review and critical analysis of the efforts towards urban flood risk management in the Lagos region of Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nkwunonwo, U. C.; Whitworth, M.; Baily, B.

2016-02-01

Urban flooding has been and will continue to be a significant problem for many cities across the developed and developing world. Crucial to the amelioration of the effects of these floods is the need to formulate a sound flood management policy, which is driven by knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of impacts of these floods. Within the area of flood research, attempts are being made to gain a better understanding of the causes, impacts, and pattern of urban flooding. According to the United Nations office for disaster reduction (UNISDR), flood risk is conceptualized on the basis of three integral components which are frequently adopted during flood damage estimation. These components are: probability of flood hazard, the level of exposure, and vulnerabilities of elements at risk. Reducing the severity of each of these components is the objective of flood risk management under the UNISDR guideline and idea of "living with floods". On the basis of this framework, the present research reviews flood risk within the Lagos area of Nigeria over the period 1968-2012. During this period, floods have caused harm to millions of people physically, emotionally, and economically. Arguably over this period the efforts of stakeholders to address the challenges appear to have been limited by, amongst other things, a lack of reliable data, a lack of awareness amongst the population affected, and a lack of knowledge of flood risk mitigation. It is the aim of this research to assess the current understanding of flood risk and management in Lagos and to offer recommendations towards future guidance.

Large floods and climatic change during the Holocene on the Ara River, Central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossman, Michael J.

2001-07-01

A reconstruction of part of the Holocene large flood record for the Ara River in central Japan is presented. Maximum intermediate gravel-size dimensions of terrace and modern floodplain gravels were measured along an 18-km reach of the river and were used in tractive force equations to estimate minimum competent flood depths. Results suggest that the magnitudes of large floods on the Ara River have varied in a non-random fashion since the end of the last glacial period. Large floods with greater magnitudes occurred during the warming period of the post-glacial and the warmer early to middle Holocene (to ˜5500 years BP). A shift in the magnitudes of large floods occurred ˜5500-5000 years BP. From this time, during the cooler middle to late Holocene, large floods generally had lower magnitudes. In the modern period, large flood magnitudes are the largest in the data set. As typhoons are the main cause of large floods on the Ara River in the modern record, the variation in large flood magnitudes suggests that the incidence of typhoon visits to the central Japan changed as the climate changed during the Holocene. Further, significant dates in the large flood record on the Ara River correspond to significant dates in Europe and the USA.

Major winter and nonwinter floods in selected basins in New York and Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langbein, Walter Basil

1947-01-01

The scientific design of flood-control works is based on an evaluation of the hydrologic factors basic to flood events, particularly how rainfall and snow runoff, soil conditions, and channel influences can combine to produce greater or lesser floods. For this purpose an analysis of the pertinent hydrologic data is needed. The methods of analysis adopted should conform as closely as possible to those already in use and must be adapted to the quality of the available information. Maximum floods in 8 basins in New York and Pennsylvania during the winter and nonwinter months were studied, a total of 21 floods. The most outstanding winter flood of record in the North Atlantic region was that of March 1936. Rainfall plus snow melt in the basins studied ranged between 3.04 and 6.87 inches, and associated volumes of direct runoff from 1.88 to 5.63 inches. Winter floods have a common characteristic in their relation to freezing temperature. The antecedent periods, representing a period of snow accumulation and frost penetration, are below freezing, and the flood itself is contemporaneous with a period of above-freezing temperatures, usually associated with rain, during which the previously accumulated snow is melted. A second common characteristic of major winter floods is their tendency to be associated with widespread causal meteorologic conditions. There was a more complete conversion of rainfall and snow melt into runoff during the winter storms studied than during the wettest nonwinter flood. Snow melt during winter floods ranged from 0.04 to 0.07 inch per degree-day above 32° F. The depth of mean areal rainfall produced by the nonwinter storms studied ranged from 3.05 to 4.96 inches. The maximum 24-hour quantity at single stations was 14 inches, which was measured during the storm of July 1935 in New York. The volume of direct runoff ranged between 1.39 and 3.41 inches. The portion of rainfall that was converted into runoff varied in accordance with the rate of antecedent base flow, expressed in second-feet per square mile, and emphasized the influence of antecedent conditions. The average volume of direct runoff during winter floods was 4.24 inches, and the average during nonwinter floods was 2.44 inches. The latter, however, were more concentrated as to time, tending to compensate for large volume of runoff in winter, so that the crest rates of direct runoff averaged 0.056 inches per hour during the winter and 0.051 inches during the nonwinter period.

Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100.

PubMed

Hall, Jim W; Sayers, Paul B; Walkden, Mike J A; Panzeri, Mike

2006-04-15

Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 billion pounds to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 billion pounds, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pounds and 0.8 billion pounds. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pounds and 40 billion pounds. Non-structural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost and environmental impact of engineering measures.

Spatial patterns of frequent floods in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneeberger, Klaus; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

Information about the spatial characteristics of high and extreme streamflow is often needed for an accurate analysis of flood risk and effective co-ordination of flood related activities, such as flood defence planning. In this study we analyse the spatial dependence of frequent floods in Switzerland across different scales. Firstly, we determine the average length of high and extreme flow events for 56 runoff time series of Swiss rivers. Secondly, a dependence measure expressing the probability that streamflow peaks are as high as peaks at a conditional site is used to describe and map the spatial extend of joint occurrence of frequent floods across Switzerland. Thirdly, we apply a cluster analysis to identify groups of sites that are likely to react similarly in terms of joint occurrence of high flow events. The results indicate that a time interval with a length of 3 days seems to be most appropriate to characterise the average length of high streamflow events across spatial scales. In the main Swiss basins, high and extreme streamflows were found to be asymptotically independent. In contrast, at the meso-scale distinct flood regions, which react similarly in terms of occurrence of frequent flood, were found. The knowledge about these regions can help to optimise flood defence planning or to estimate regional flood risk properly.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance probability discharges for streams in Arkansas, based on data through water year 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Daniel M.; Krieger, Joshua D.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2016-08-04

In 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a study to update regional skew, annual exceedance probability discharges, and regional regression equations used to estimate annual exceedance probability discharges for ungaged locations on streams in the study area with the use of recent geospatial data, new analytical methods, and available annual peak-discharge data through the 2013 water year. An analysis of regional skew using Bayesian weighted least-squares/Bayesian generalized-least squares regression was performed for Arkansas, Louisiana, and parts of Missouri and Oklahoma. The newly developed constant regional skew of -0.17 was used in the computation of annual exceedance probability discharges for 281 streamgages used in the regional regression analysis. Based on analysis of covariance, four flood regions were identified for use in the generation of regional regression models. Thirty-nine basin characteristics were considered as potential explanatory variables, and ordinary least-squares regression techniques were used to determine the optimum combinations of basin characteristics for each of the four regions. Basin characteristics in candidate models were evaluated based on multicollinearity with other basin characteristics (variance inflation factor < 2.5) and statistical significance at the 95-percent confidence level (p ≤ 0.05). Generalized least-squares regression was used to develop the final regression models for each flood region. Average standard errors of prediction of the generalized least-squares models ranged from 32.76 to 59.53 percent, with the largest range in flood region D. Pseudo coefficients of determination of the generalized least-squares models ranged from 90.29 to 97.28 percent, with the largest range also in flood region D. The regional regression equations apply only to locations on streams in Arkansas where annual peak discharges are not substantially affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization. The applicability and accuracy of the regional regression equations depend on the basin characteristics measured for an ungaged location on a stream being within range of those used to develop the equations.

Modeling magma flow and cooling in dikes: Implications for emplacement of Columbia River flood basalts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petcovic, Heather L.; Dufek, Josef D.

2005-10-01

The Columbia River flood basalts include some of the world's largest individual lava flows, most of which were fed by the Chief Joseph dike swarm. The majority of dikes are chilled against their wall rock; however, rare dikes caused their wall rock to undergo partial melting. These partial melt zones record the thermal history of magma flow and cooling in the dike and, consequently, the emplacement history of the flow it fed. Here, we examine two-dimensional thermal models of basalt injection, flow, and cooling in a 10-m-thick dike constrained by the field example of the Maxwell Lake dike, a likely feeder to the large-volume Wapshilla Ridge unit of the Grande Ronde Basalt. Two types of models were developed: static conduction simulations and advective transport simulations. Static conduction simulation results confirm that instantaneous injection and stagnation of a single dike did not produce wall rock melt. Repeated injection generated wall rock melt zones comparable to those observed, yet the regular texture across the dike and its wall rock is inconsistent with repeated brittle injection. Instead, advective flow in the dike for 3-4 years best reproduced the field example. Using this result, we estimate that maximum eruption rates for Wapshilla Ridge flows ranged from 3 to 5 km3 d-1. Local eruption rates were likely lower (minimum 0.1-0.8 km3 d-1), as advective modeling results suggest that other fissure segments as yet unidentified fed the same flow. Consequently, the Maxwell Lake dike probably represents an upper crustal (˜2 km) exposure of a long-lived point source within the Columbia River flood basalts.

The role of floodplain restoration in mitigating flood risk, Lower Missouri River, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Lindner, Garth; Bitner, Chance; Hudson, Paul F.; Middelkoop, Hans

2015-01-01

Recent extreme floods on the Lower Missouri River have reinvigorated public policy debate about the potential role of floodplain restoration in decreasing costs of floods and possibly increasing other ecosystem service benefits. The first step to addressing the benefits of floodplain restoration is to understand the interactions of flow, floodplain morphology, and land cover that together determine the biophysical capacity of the floodplain. In this article we address interactions between ecological restoration of floodplains and flood-risk reduction at 3 scales. At the scale of the Lower Missouri River corridor (1300 km) floodplain elevation datasets and flow models provide first-order calculations of the potential for Missouri River floodplains to store floods of varying magnitude and duration. At this same scale assessment of floodplain sand deposition from the 2011 Missouri River flood indicates the magnitude of flood damage that could potentially be limited by floodplain restoration. At the segment scale (85 km), 1-dimensional hydraulic modeling predicts substantial stage reductions with increasing area of floodplain restoration; mean stage reductions range from 0.12 to 0.66 m. This analysis also indicates that channel widening may contribute substantially to stage reductions as part of a comprehensive strategy to restore floodplain and channel habitats. Unsteady 1-dimensional flow modeling of restoration scenarios at this scale indicates that attenuation of peak discharges of an observed hydrograph from May 2007, of similar magnitude to a 10 % annual exceedance probability flood, would be minimal, ranging from 0.04 % (with 16 % floodplain restoration) to 0.13 % (with 100 % restoration). At the reach scale (15–20 km) 2-dimensional hydraulic models of alternative levee setbacks and floodplain roughness indicate complex processes and patterns of flooding including substantial variation in stage reductions across floodplains depending on topographic complexity and hydraulic roughness. Detailed flow patterns captured in the 2-dimensional model indicate that most floodplain storage occurs on the rising limb of the flood as water flows into floodplain bottoms from downstream; at a later time during the rising limb this pattern is reversed and the entire bottom conveys discharge down the valley. These results indicate that flood-risk reduction by attenuation is likely to be small on a large river like the Missouri and design strategies to optimize attenuation and ecological restoration should focus on frequent floods (20–50 % annual exceedance probability). Local stage reductions are a more certain benefit of floodplain restoration but local effects are highly dependent on magnitude of flood discharge and how floodplain vegetation communities contribute to hydraulic roughness. The most certain flood risk reduction benefit of floodplain restoration is avoidance of flood damages to crops and infrastructure.

Two-Dimensional Simulation of Flow and Evaluation of Bridge Scour at Structure A-1700 on Interstate 155 over the Mississippi River near Caruthersville, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huizinga, Richard J.

2007-01-01

The evaluation of scour at bridges throughout the State of Missouri has been ongoing since 1991, and most of these evaluations have used one-dimensional hydraulic analysis and application of conventional scour depth prediction equations. Occasionally, the complex conditions of a site dictate a more thorough assessment of the stream hydraulics beyond a one-dimensional model. This was the case for structure A-1700, the Interstate 155 bridge crossing the Mississippi River near Caruthersville, Missouri. To assess the complex hydraulics at this site, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic flow model was used to simulate flow conditions on the Mississippi River in the vicinity of the Interstate 155 structure A-1700. The model was used to simulate flow conditions for three discharges: a flood that occurred on April 4, 1975 (the calibration flood), which had a discharge of 1,658,000 cubic feet per second; the 100-year flood, which has a discharge of 1,960,000 cubic feet per second; and the project design flood, which has a discharge of 1,974,000 cubic feet per second. The project design flood was essentially equivalent to the flood that would cause impending overtopping of the mainline levees along the Mississippi River in the vicinity of structure A-1700. Discharge and river-stage readings from the flood of April 4, 1975, were used to calibrate the flow model. The model was then used to simulate the 100-year and project design floods. Hydraulic flow parameters obtained from the three flow simulations were applied to scour depth prediction equations to determine contraction, local pier, and abutment scour depths at structure A-1700. Contraction scour and local pier scour depths computed for the project design discharge generally were the greatest, whereas the depths computed for the calibration flood were the least. The maximum predicted total scour depth (contraction and local pier scour) for the calibration flood was 66.1 feet; for the 100-year flood, the maximum predicted total scour depth was 74.6 feet; for the project design flood, the maximum predicted total scour depth was 93.0 feet. If scour protection did not exist, bent 14 and piers 15 through 21 would be substantially exposed or undermined by the predicted total scour depths in all of the flood simulations. However, piers 18 through 21 have a riprap blanket around the base of each, and the riprap blanket observed on the right bank around bent 14 is thought to extend around the base of pier 15, which would limit the amount of scour that would occur at these piers. Furthermore, the footings and caissons that are not exposed by computed contraction scour may arrest local pier scour, which will limit local pier scour at several bents and piers. Nevertheless, main-channel piers 16 and 17 and all of the bents on the left (as viewed facing downstream) overbank are moderately to substantially exposed by the predicted scour depths from the three flood simulations, and there is no known scour protection at these piers or bents. Abutment scour depths were computed for structure A-1700, but abutment scour is expected to be mitigated by the presence of guidebanks upstream from the bridge abutments, as well as riprap revetment on the abutment and guidebank faces.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. In order to increase the number of streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) available for analysis, expand the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across State boundaries, and build on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural U.S Geological Survey streamgages in the Southeast United States, a multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The at-site flood-frequency analysis of annual peak-flow data for urban and small, rural streams (through September 30, 2011) included 116 urban streamgages and 32 small, rural streamgages, defined in this report as basins draining less than 1 square mile. The regional regression analysis included annual peak-flow data from an additional 338 rural streamgages previously included in U.S. Geological Survey flood-frequency reports and 2 additional rural streamgages in North Carolina that were not included in the previous Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation for a total of 488 streamgages included in the urban and small, rural regression analysis. The at-site flood-frequency analyses for the urban and small, rural streamgages included the expected moments algorithm, which is a modification of the Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method for fitting the statistical distribution to the logarithms of the annual peak flows. Where applicable, the flood-frequency analysis also included low-outlier and historic information. Additionally, the application of a generalized Grubbs-Becks test allowed for the detection of multiple potentially influential low outliers. Streamgage basin characteristics were determined using geographical information system techniques. Initial ordinary least squares regression simulations reduced the number of basin characteristics on the basis of such factors as statistical significance, coefficient of determination, Mallow’s Cp statistic, and ease of measurement of the explanatory variable. Application of generalized least squares regression techniques produced final predictive (regression) equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows for urban and small, rural ungaged basins for three hydrologic regions (HR1, Piedmont–Ridge and Valley; HR3, Sand Hills; and HR4, Coastal Plain), which previously had been defined from exploratory regression analysis in the Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation. Because of the limited availability of urban streamgages in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, additional urban streamgages in Florida and New Jersey were used in the regression analysis for this region. Including the urban streamgages in New Jersey allowed for the expansion of the applicability of the predictive equations in the Coastal Plain from 3.5 to 53.5 square miles. Average standard error of prediction for the predictive equations, which is a measure of the average accuracy of the regression equations when predicting flood estimates for ungaged sites, range from 25.0 percent for the 10-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Piedmont–Ridge and Valley region to 73.3 percent for the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Sand Hills region.

Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Modeling and Analysis of the Proposed Channel Modifications and Grade Control Structure on the Blue River near Byram's Ford Industrial Park, Kansas City, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huizinga, Richard J.

2007-01-01

The Blue River Channel Modification project being implemented by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is intended to provide flood protection within the Blue River valley in the Kansas City, Mo., metropolitan area. In the latest phase of the project, concerns have arisen about preserving the Civil War historic area of Byram's Ford and the associated Big Blue Battlefield while providing flood protection for the Byram's Ford Industrial Park. In 1996, the USACE used a physical model built at the Waterways Experiment Station (WES) in Vicksburg, Miss., to examine the feasibility of a proposed grade control structure (GCS) that would be placed downstream from the historic river crossing of Byram's Ford to provide a subtle transition of flow from the natural channel to the modified channel. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the USACE, modified an existing two-dimensional finite element surface-water model of the river between 63d Street and Blue Parkway (the 'original model'), used the modified model to simulate the existing (as of 2006) unimproved channel and the proposed channel modifications and GCS, and analyzed the results from the simulations and those from the WES physical model. Modifications were made to the original model to create a model that represents existing (2006) conditions between the north end of Swope Park immediately upstream from 63d Street and the upstream limit of channel improvement on the Blue River (the 'model of existing conditions'). The model of existing conditions was calibrated to two measured floods. The model of existing conditions also was modified to create a model that represents conditions along the same reach of the Blue River with proposed channel modifications and the proposed GCS (the 'model of proposed conditions'). The models of existing conditions and proposed conditions were used to simulate the 30-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence floods. The discharge from the calibration flood of May 15, 1990, also was simulated in the models of existing and proposed conditions to provide results for that flood with the current downstream channel modifications and with the proposed channel modifications and GCS. Results from the model of existing conditions show that the downstream channel modifications as they exist (2006) may already be affecting flows in the unmodified upstream channel. The 30-year flood does not inundate most of the Byram's Ford Industrial Park near the upstream end of the study area. Analysis of the 1990 flood (with the historical 1990 channel conditions) and the 1990 flood simulated with the existing (2006) conditions indicates a substantial increase in velocity throughout the study area and a substantial decrease in inundated area from 1990 to 2006. Results from the model of proposed conditions show that the proposed channel modifications will contain the 30-year flood and that the spoil berm designed to provide additional flood protection for the Byram's Ford Industrial Park for the 30-year flood prevents inundation of the industrial park. In the vicinity of Byram's Ford for the 30-year flood, the maximum depth increased from 39.7 feet (ft) in the model of existing conditions to 43.5 ft in the model of proposed conditions, with a resulting decrease in velocity from 6.61 to 4.55 feet per second (ft/s). For the 50-year flood, the maximum depth increased from 42.3 to 45.8 ft, with a decrease in velocity from 6.12 to 4.16 ft/s from existing to proposed conditions. For the 100-year flood, the maximum depth increased from 44.0 to 46.6 ft, with a decrease in velocity from 5.64 to 4.12 ft/s from existing to proposed conditions. When the May 15, 1990, discharge is simulated in the model of existing conditions (with the existing (2006) modified channel downstream of the study area), the maximum depth increases from 38.4 to 42.0 ft, with a decrease in velocity from 6.54 to 4.84 ft/s from existing (2006) to proposed conditions. Analysis of the results fro

Summary of floods in the United States during 1969

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reid, J.K.

1975-01-01

The most outstanding floods in the United States during 1969 are described in chronological order. The areas most seriously affected by flooding were: Central and southern California (January and February); the upper Midwestern States of North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois (April); north-central Ohio (July); Mississippi, Alabama, and Virginia (Hurricane Camille in August); and Florida and Georgia (September). Severe floods in central and southern California were caused by three storms during January and February. At least 60 lives were lost. Homes and property were destroyed or damaged, by rainstorms, floods, and mudflows. Many floods approached or exceeded the maximum known. The severe flood damage was due partly to recent home construction in floodprone areas. The April floods in the upper Midwestern States of North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois were expected because of a large accumulation of snow containing as much as 8 inches of water. Flood-protection procedures, together with cool temperatures, had a mitigating effect on the flood. The floods were the largest since the late 1800's, and their recurrence intervals exceeded 50 years at many of the gaged sites. Estimates of flood damage were about $147 million. More than a million acres of rich agricultural land were inundated, thousands of culverts and bridges were washed out, 23,000 people were forced from their homes and 11 lives were lost in the six-State flood area. Intense rainstorms and wind with gusts as much as 100 miles per hour, July 4-5, caused record floods in north-central Ohio, July 4-8. The storm and floods left trees uprooted, more than $66 million in damage, and 41 deaths. In many places the floods were the largest of record. Together with the wind and rainstorm, the hydrologic conditions were among the most significant experienced in the area. Hurricane Camille was the most intense hurricane on record to enter the United States mainland. It struck the Mississippi-Alabama coast on August 18, with tidal waves as high as 25 feet above mean sea level and wind velocities more than 190 miles per hour. Tidal wave and flood damage was about $1.3 billion. In Mississippi the known dead totaled 139 and 76 other persons were missing. The hurricane intensity decreased as it moved inland until it merged with severe rainstorms over the Appalachian mountains. The intensified hurricane then caused record-breaking floods of streams in a 50-mile-wide area as it moved eastward from Sulphur Springs, W. Va., to Fredericksburg, Va. Total flood damage in Virginia exceeded $116 million. There were 113 known deaths, 102 injuries, and 39 people missing. A tropical storm that was nearly stationary over northwest Florida for about 48 hours, September 20-23 produced record rains and floods. Near Quincy, Fla., the total rainfall for the period exceeded 20 inches. On Little River near Quincy, the peak discharge was nearly twice the previous maximum of record and was three times that of a 50-year flood. Flood damage to agricultural lands, bridges, culverts, and roads was about $1.7 million.

Probabilistic Mapping of Storm-induced Coastal Inundation for Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, N.; Yamazaki, Y.; Roeber, V.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.

2016-02-01

Global warming is posing an imminent threat to coastal communities worldwide. Under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, we utilize hurricane events downscaled from a CMIP5 global climate model using the stochastic-deterministic method of Emanuel (2013, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.) in a pilot study to develop an inundation map with projected sea-level rise for the urban Honolulu coast. The downscaling is performed for a 20-year period from 2081 to 2100 to capture the ENSO, which strongly influences the hurricane activity in the Pacific. A total of 50 simulations provide a quasi-stationary dataset of 1000 years for probabilistic analysis of the flood hazards toward the end of the century. We utilize the meta-model Hakou, which is based on precomputed hurricane scenarios using ADCIRC, SWAN, and a 1D Boussinesq model (Kennedy et al., 2012, Ocean Modelling), to estimate the annual maximum inundation along the project coastline at the present sea level. Screening of the preliminary results identifies the most severe three events for detailed inundation modeling using the package of Li et al. (2014, Ocean Modelling) at the projected sea level. For each event, the third generation spectral model WAVEWATCH III of Tolman (2008, Ocean Modelling) provides the hurricane waves and the circulation model NEOWAVE of Yamazaki et al. (2009, 2011, Int. J. Num. Meth. Fluids) computes the surge using a system of telescopic nested grids from the open ocean to the project coastline. The output defines the boundary conditions and initial still-water elevation for computation of phase-resolving surf-zone and inundation processes using the 2D Boussinesq model of Roeber and Cheung (2012, Coastal Engineering). Each computed inundation event corresponds to an annual maximum, and with 1000 years of data, has an occurrence probability of 0.1% in a given year. Barring the tail of the distribution, aggregation of the three computed events allow delineation of the inundation zone with annual exceedance probability equal to or greater than 0.2% (equivalent to a 500-year return period). An immediate application is to assess the inventory of buildings and structures in Honolulu that would be exposed to increased flood risks due to climate change and identify potential revisions to the building code as part of the adaptation process.

Backwater Flooding in San Marcos, TX from the Blanco River

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Earl, Richard; Gaenzle, Kyle G.; Hollier, Andi B.

2016-01-01

Large sections of San Marcos, TX were flooded in Oct. 1998, May 2015, and Oct. 2015. Much of the flooding in Oct. 1998 and Oct. 2015 was produced by overbank flooding of San Marcos River and its tributaries by spills from upstream dams. The May 2015 flooding was almost entirely produced by backwater flooding from the Blanco River whose confluence is approximately 2.2 miles southeast of downtown. We use the stage height of the Blanco River to generate maps of the areas of San Marcos that are lower than the flood peaks and compare those results with data for the observed extent of flooding in San Marcos. Our preliminary results suggest that the flooding occurred at locations more than 20 feet lower than the maximum stage height of the Blanco River at San Marcos gage (08171350). This suggest that the datum for either gage 08171350 or 08170500 (San Marcos River at San Marcos) or both are incorrect. There are plans for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to construct a Blanco River bypass that will divert Blanco River floodwaters approximately 2 miles farther downstream, but the $60 million price makes its implementation problematic.

Analysis of the Tonle Sap Flood Pulse Based on Remote Sensing: how much does Tonle Sap Lake Affect the Mekong River Flood?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, W.; Hu, N.; Fu, J.; Lu, J.; Lu, H.; Lei, T.; Pang, Z.; Li, X.; Li, L.

2018-04-01

The economic value of the Tonle Sap Lake Floodplain to Cambodia is among the highest provided to a nation by a single ecosystem around the world. The flow of Mekong River is the primary factor affecting the Tonle Sap Lake Floodplain. The Tonle Sap Lake also plays a very important role in regulating the downstream flood of Mekong River. Hence, it is necessary to understand its temporal changes of lake surface and water storage and to analyse its relation with the flood processes of Mekong River. Monthly lake surface and water storage from July 2013 to May 2014 were first monitored based on remote sensing data. The relationship between water surface and accumulative water storage change was then established. In combination with hydrological modelling results of Mekong River Basin, the relation between the lake's water storage and the runoff of Mekong River was analysed. It is found that the water storage has a sharp increase from September to December and, after reaching its maximum in December, water storage quickly decreases with a 38.8 billion m3 of drop in only half month time from December to January, while it keeps rather stable at a lower level in other months. There is a two months' time lag between the maximum lake water storage and the Mekong River peak flood, which shows the lake's huge flood regulation role to downstream Mekong River. It shows that this remote sensing approach is feasible and reliable in quantitative monitoring of data scarce lakes.

Flood risks in urbanized areas - multi-sensoral approaches using remotely sensed data for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taubenböck, H.; Wurm, M.; Netzband, M.; Zwenzner, H.; Roth, A.; Rahman, A.; Dech, S.

2011-02-01

Estimating flood risks and managing disasters combines knowledge in climatology, meteorology, hydrology, hydraulic engineering, statistics, planning and geography - thus a complex multi-faceted problem. This study focuses on the capabilities of multi-source remote sensing data to support decision-making before, during and after a flood event. With our focus on urbanized areas, sample methods and applications show multi-scale products from the hazard and vulnerability perspective of the risk framework. From the hazard side, we present capabilities with which to assess flood-prone areas before an expected disaster. Then we map the spatial impact during or after a flood and finally, we analyze damage grades after a flood disaster. From the vulnerability side, we monitor urbanization over time on an urban footprint level, classify urban structures on an individual building level, assess building stability and quantify probably affected people. The results show a large database for sustainable development and for developing mitigation strategies, ad-hoc coordination of relief measures and organizing rehabilitation.

Spatial planning using probabilistic flood maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso, Leonardo; Mukolwe, Micah; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2015-04-01

Probabilistic flood maps account for uncertainty in flood inundation modelling and convey a degree of certainty in the outputs. Major sources of uncertainty include input data, topographic data, model structure, observation data and parametric uncertainty. Decision makers prefer less ambiguous information from modellers; this implies that uncertainty is suppressed to yield binary flood maps. Though, suppressing information may potentially lead to either surprise or misleading decisions. Inclusion of uncertain information in the decision making process is therefore desirable and transparent. To this end, we utilise the Prospect theory and information from a probabilistic flood map to evaluate potential decisions. Consequences related to the decisions were evaluated using flood risk analysis. Prospect theory explains how choices are made given options for which probabilities of occurrence are known and accounts for decision makers' characteristics such as loss aversion and risk seeking. Our results show that decision making is pronounced when there are high gains and loss, implying higher payoffs and penalties, therefore a higher gamble. Thus the methodology may be appropriately considered when making decisions based on uncertain information.

Analysis of water-surface profiles in Leon County and the city of Tallahassee, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franklin, M.A.; Orr, R.A.

1987-01-01

Water surface profiles for the 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-yr recurrence interval floods for most of the streams that drain developing areas of Leon County and the city of Tallahassee are presented. The principal streams studied are in the Lake Munson, Lake Lafayette, and Lake Jackson basins Peak discharges were computed from regression equations based on information gained from 15 streamflow stations in the area. Standard step-backwater procedures were used to determine the water-surface elevations for the streams. The flood elevations were generally higher than those in the Flood Insurance Studies for Tallahassee (1976) and Leon County (1982). The primary reason for the higher profiles is that peak discharges used in this report are larger than those used previously, largely due to changes in land use. The flood profiles for Bradford Brook, North Branch Gum Creek, and West Branch Gum Creek generally match those in the Leon County Flood Insurance Studies. Channel improvements in some areas would lower the flood elevation in that area, but would probably increase flooding downstream. (Lantz-PTT)

Assessing the Value of Information for Identifying Optimal Floodplain Management Portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Bates, M.; Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.

2014-12-01

Floodplain management is a complex portfolio problem that can be analyzed from an integrated perspective incorporating traditionally structural and nonstructural options. One method to identify effective strategies for preparing, responding to, and recovering from floods is to optimize for a portfolio of temporary (emergency) and permanent floodplain management options. A risk-based optimization approach to this problem assigns probabilities to specific flood events and calculates the associated expected damages. This approach is currently limited by: (1) the assumption of perfect flood forecast information, i.e. implementing temporary management activities according to the actual flood event may differ from optimizing based on forecasted information and (2) the inability to assess system resilience across a range of possible future events (risk-centric approach). Resilience is defined here as the ability of a system to absorb and recover from a severe disturbance or extreme event. In our analysis, resilience is a system property that requires integration of physical, social, and information domains. This work employs a 3-stage linear program to identify the optimal mix of floodplain management options using conditional probabilities to represent perfect and imperfect flood stages (forecast vs. actual events). We assess the value of information in terms of minimizing damage costs for two theoretical cases - urban and rural systems. We use portfolio analysis to explore how the set of optimal management options differs depending on whether the goal is for the system to be risk-adverse to a specified event or resilient over a range of events.

Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shevnina, Elena; Kourzeneva, Ekaterina; Kovalenko, Viktor; Vihma, Timo

2017-05-01

Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lower latitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates major challenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is the long-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure (dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of the frequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost of the infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-term forecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulate the parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-year runoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes in extreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model is validated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs using observations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values and coefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluated under four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for the period 2010-2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means and CVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within such regions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change in calculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example of engineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedance probability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym.

Plant species richness and functional traits affect community stability after a flood event.

PubMed

Fischer, Felícia M; Wright, Alexandra J; Eisenhauer, Nico; Ebeling, Anne; Roscher, Christiane; Wagg, Cameron; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Pillar, Valério D

2016-05-19

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. It is therefore of major importance to identify the community attributes that confer stability in ecological communities during such events. In June 2013, a flood event affected a plant diversity experiment in Central Europe (Jena, Germany). We assessed the effects of plant species richness, functional diversity, flooding intensity and community means of functional traits on different measures of stability (resistance, resilience and raw biomass changes from pre-flood conditions). Surprisingly, plant species richness reduced community resistance in response to the flood. This was mostly because more diverse communities grew more immediately following the flood. Raw biomass increased over the previous year; this resulted in decreased absolute value measures of resistance. There was no clear response pattern for resilience. We found that functional traits drove these changes in raw biomass: communities with a high proportion of late-season, short-statured plants with dense, shallow roots and small leaves grew more following the flood. Late-growing species probably avoided the flood, whereas greater root length density might have allowed species to better access soil resources brought from the flood, thus growing more in the aftermath. We conclude that resource inputs following mild floods may favour the importance of traits related to resource acquisition and be less associated with flooding tolerance. © 2016 The Author(s).

Plant species richness and functional traits affect community stability after a flood event

PubMed Central

Fischer, Felícia M.; Wright, Alexandra J.; Eisenhauer, Nico; Ebeling, Anne; Roscher, Christiane; Wagg, Cameron; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Pillar, Valério D.

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. It is therefore of major importance to identify the community attributes that confer stability in ecological communities during such events. In June 2013, a flood event affected a plant diversity experiment in Central Europe (Jena, Germany). We assessed the effects of plant species richness, functional diversity, flooding intensity and community means of functional traits on different measures of stability (resistance, resilience and raw biomass changes from pre-flood conditions). Surprisingly, plant species richness reduced community resistance in response to the flood. This was mostly because more diverse communities grew more immediately following the flood. Raw biomass increased over the previous year; this resulted in decreased absolute value measures of resistance. There was no clear response pattern for resilience. We found that functional traits drove these changes in raw biomass: communities with a high proportion of late-season, short-statured plants with dense, shallow roots and small leaves grew more following the flood. Late-growing species probably avoided the flood, whereas greater root length density might have allowed species to better access soil resources brought from the flood, thus growing more in the aftermath. We conclude that resource inputs following mild floods may favour the importance of traits related to resource acquisition and be less associated with flooding tolerance. PMID:27114578

A formal framework of scenario creation and analysis of extreme hydrological events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, D.

2007-12-01

We are presenting a formal framework for a hydrological risk analysis. Different measures of risk will be introduced, such as average annual loss or occurrence exceedance probability. These are important measures for e.g. insurance companies to determine the cost of insurance. One key aspect of investigating the potential consequences of extreme hydrological events (floods and draughts) is the creation of meteorological scenarios that reflect realistic spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation that also have correct local statistics. 100,000 years of these meteorological scenarios are used in a calibrated rainfall-runoff-flood-loss-risk model to produce flood and draught events that have never been observed. The results of this hazard model are statistically analyzed and linked to socio-economic data and vulnerability functions to show the impact of severe flood events. We are showing results from the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Europe Flood Model to introduce this formal framework.

Study of flood defense structural measures priorities using Compromise Programming technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, D.; Jeong, S.

2017-12-01

Recent climate change of global warming has led to the frequent occurrence of heavy regional rainfalls. As such, inundation vulnerability increases in urban areas with high population density due to the low runoff carrying capacity. This study selects a sample area (Janghang-eup, the Republic of Korea), which is one of the most vulnerable areas to flooding, analyzing the urban flood runoff model (XP-SWMM) and using the MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) technique to establish flood protection structural measures. To this end, we compare the alternatives and choose the optimal flood defense measure: our model is utilized with three flood prevention structural measures; (i) drainage pipe construction; (ii) water detention; and (iii) flood pumping station. Dividing the target area into three small basins, we propose flood evaluations for an inundation decrease by studying the flooded area, the maximum inundation depth, the damaged residential area, and the construction cost. In addition, Compromise Programming determines the priority of the alternatives. As a consequent, this study suggests flood pumping station for Zone 1 and drainage pipe construction for Zone 2 and Zone 3, respectively, as the optimal flood defense alternative. Keywords : MCDM; Compromise Programming; Urban Flood Prevention; This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-DP-2013-62] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

Flood inundation mapping in the Logone floodplain from multi temporal Landsat ETM+ imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, H.; Alsdorf, D. E.; Moritz, M.; Lee, H.; Vassolo, S.

2011-12-01

Yearly flooding in the Logone floodplain makes an impact on agricultural, pastoral, and fishery systems in the Lake Chad Basin. Since the flooding extent and depth are highly variable, flood inundation mapping helps us make better use of water resources and prevent flood hazards in the Logone floodplain. The flood maps are generated from 33 multi temporal Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) during three years 2006 to 2008. Flooded area is classified using a short-wave infrared band whereas open water is classified by Iterative Self-organizing Data Analysis (ISODATA) clustering. The maximum flooding extent in the study area increases up to ~5.8K km2 in late October 2008. The study also provides strong correlation of the flooding extents with water height variations in both the floodplain and the river based on a second polynomial regression model. The water heights are from ENIVSAT altimetry in the floodplain and gauge measurements in the river. Coefficients of determination between flooding extents and water height variations are greater than 0.91 with 4 to 36 days in phase lag. Floodwater drains back to the river and to the northeast during the recession period in December and January. The study supports understanding of the Logone floodplain dynamics in detail of spatial pattern and size of the flooding extent and assists the flood monitoring and prediction systems in the catchment.

Flood Inundation Mapping in the Logone Floodplain from Multi Temporal Landsat ETM+Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Hahn Chul; Alsdorf, Douglas E.; Moritz, Mark; Lee, Hyongki; Vassolo, Sara

2011-01-01

Yearly flooding in the Logone floodplain makes an impact on agricultural, pastoral, and fishery systems in the Lake Chad Basin. Since the flooding extent and depth are highly variable, flood inundation mapping helps us make better use of water resources and prevent flood hazards in the Logone floodplain. The flood maps are generated from 33 multi temporal Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) during three years 2006 to 2008. Flooded area is classified using a short-wave infrared band whereas open water is classified by Iterative Self-organizing Data Analysis (ISODATA) clustering. The maximum flooding extent in the study area increases up to approximately 5.8K km2 in late October 2008. The study also provides strong correlation of the flooding extents with water height variations in both the floodplain and the river based on a second polynomial regression model. The water heights are from ENIVSAT altimetry in the floodplain and gauge measurements in the river. Coefficients of determination between flooding extents and water height variations are greater than 0.91 with 4 to 36 days in phase lag. Floodwater drains back to the river and to the northeast during the recession period in December and January. The study supports understanding of the Logone floodplain dynamics in detail of spatial pattern and size of the flooding extent and assists the flood monitoring and prediction systems in the catchment.

Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

2015-12-01

The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

Floods of March-April 1960 in Eastern Nebraska and adjacent states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brice, H.D.; West, R.E.

1965-01-01

Snowmelt floods, record breaking on many streams and outstanding in terms of total area affected and runoff volumes generated, occurred in late March and early April 1960 on Missouri River tributaries in adjacent parts of six states. In order of area affected, the States are Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, and Missouri. Five lives were lost, and the estimated damage was $14 million. Main-stem reservoirs kept Missouri River stages substantially below potential unregulated levels. Without regulation by reservoirs, the stage at Sioux City and Omaha would have been about 9 feet higher than it was and the damage would have been many millions of dollars more than actually occurred. The floods were caused by rapid melting of an extensive snow cover of unusual depth and water equivalent, augmented by light to moderate rains. Temperatures almost continuously below normal, beginning in late December and culminating in record lows at many places during the first half of March, resulted in the retention of record snow accumulations, much later and much farther south than normal. The snowfall in eastern Nebraska from December 27 to March 26 was about twice the annual average. The excessive snowfall and below-normal temperatures produced a record-breaking 75-day period of continuous snow cover at Omaha. A rapidly rising, eastward-moving temperature pattern late in March, in combination with an easterly orientation of many Nebraska streams, tended to magnify flood peaks. The rapid temperature rise started about March 18 in western Nebraska but not until March 26 in the eastern part of the State. As a consequence, flood discharges from the headwaters, often bearing heavy ice floes, arrived in the lower reaches simultaneously with or even ahead of the breakup of the unusually heavy ice cover and caused serious jamming. Comparisons of the peak discharges of the 1960 snowmelt floods with those of previous floods reveal several interesting facts. Peak discharges on the Missouri main stem were appreciably less than those in several other years, largely because of effective reservoir control of upstream runoff, but, many tributaries throughout the report area had maximum discharges for their periods of record. Particularly significant are comparisons at some stations for which historical flood data were available. For example, the peak discharge of the Platte River at Louisville, Nebr., was the greatest since at least 1881, and the peak on the Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr., was the greatest snowmelt flood since at least 1912, although it was less than half of the rain peak of June 12, 1944. Following a characteristic pattern for snowmelt floods, the peaks on the smaller streams generally were not unusual, but the cumulative effect of widespread high runoff throughout the stream systems caused higher and more outstanding peaks in the larger basins. Peaks due to local rains of high intensity often are more significant for small areas. Snowmelt floods occur less frequently than rainfall floods in most basins of this flood area.. Studies made for this report show that an average of only about one out of every four maximum annual flood discharges in the report area results primarily from snowmelt. But for streams flowing from north to south in South Dakota and Iowa, the ratio of snowmelt peaks to rainfall peaks is higher. Comparisons of 1960 flood volumes with those for previous floods are even more striking than peak-discharge comparisons. Flood volumes at eight selected stations for the maximum 20-day period during March and April 1960 exceeded all previous 20-day volumes with only one exception; the ratios ranged from 3.11 for Vermillion River near Wakonda, S. Dak., to 0.93 for Elkhorn River at Waterloo, Nebr. The ratio of the 20-day volume to the 1960 annual runoff for the same group of stations ranged from 20 percent at Niobrara River near Spencer, Nebr., to 74 percent on the Vermillion River. For the lat

Flood Risk and Asset Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

use by third parties of results or methods presented in this report. The Company also stresses that various sections of this report rely on data...inundation probability  Levee contribution to risk The methods used in FRE have been applied to establish the National Flood Risk in England and...be noted that when undertaking high level probabilistic risk assessments in the UK, if a defence’s condition is unknown, grade 3 is applied with

Flood Extent Mapping for Namibia Using Change Detection and Thresholding with SAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, Stephanie; Fatoyinbo, Temilola E.; Policelli, Frederick

2014-01-01

A new method for flood detection change detection and thresholding (CDAT) was used with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to delineate the extent of flooding for the Chobe floodplain in the Caprivi region of Namibia. This region experiences annual seasonal flooding and has seen a recent renewal of severe flooding after a long dry period in the 1990s. Flooding in this area has caused loss of life and livelihoods for the surrounding communities and has caught the attention of disaster relief agencies. There is a need for flood extent mapping techniques that can be used to process images quickly, providing near real-time flooding information to relief agencies. ENVISAT/ASAR and Radarsat-2 images were acquired for several flooding seasons from February 2008 to March 2013. The CDAT method was used to determine flooding from these images and includes the use of image subtraction, decision based classification with threshold values, and segmentation of SAR images. The total extent of flooding determined for 2009, 2011 and 2012 was about 542 km2, 720 km2, and 673 km2 respectively. Pixels determined to be flooded in vegetation were typically <0.5 % of the entire scene, with the exception of 2009 where the detection of flooding in vegetation was much greater (almost one third of the total flooded area). The time to maximum flooding for the 2013 flood season was determined to be about 27 days. Landsat water classification was used to compare the results from the new CDAT with SAR method; the results show good spatial agreement with Landsat scenes.

Flood management on the lower Yellow River: hydrological and geomorphological perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Li; Finlayson, Brian

1993-05-01

The Yellow River, known also as "China's Sorrow", has a long history of channel changes and disastrous floods in its lower reaches. Past channel positions can be identified from historical documentary records and geomorphological and sedimentological evidence. Since 1947, government policy has been aimed at containing the floods within artificial levees and preventing the river from changing its course. Flood control is based on flood-retarding dams and off-stream retention basins as well as artificial levees lining the channel. The design flood for the system has a recurrence interval of only around 60 years and floods of this and larger magnitudes can be generated downstream of the main flood control dams at Sanmenxia and Xiaolangdi. Rapid sedimentation along the river causes problems for storage and has raised the bed of the river some 10 m above the surrounding floodplain. The present management strategy is probably not viable in the long term and to avoid a major disaster a new management approach is required. The most viable option would appear to be to breach the levees at predetermined points coupled with advanced warning and evacuation of the population thus put at risk.

Stream channel cross sections for a reach of the Boise River in Ada County, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hortness, Jon E.; Werner, Douglas C.

1999-01-01

The Federal Emergency Management Agency produces maps of areas that are likely to be inundated during major floods, usually the 100-year, or 1-percent probability, flood. The maps, called Flood Insurance Rate Maps, are used to determine flood insurance rates for homes, businesses, or other structures located in flood-prone areas. State and local governments also use these maps for help with, among other things, development planning and disaster mitigation. During the period October 1997 through December 1998, the initial phase of a hydraulic analysis project of the Boise River from Barber Dam to the Ada/Canyon County boundary, the U.S. Geological Survey collected stream channel cross-section data at 238 locations along the river and documented 108 elevation reference marks established for horizontal and vertical control. In the final phase of the project, the Survey will use these data to determine water-surface elevations for the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods and to define floodway limits. The Federal Emergency Management Agency will use the results of this hydraulic analysis to update the 100- and 500-year flood boundaries and the floodway limits on their Flood Insurance Rate Maps.

Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, Efrat; Jacoby, Yael; Navon, Shilo; Bet-Halachmi, Erez

2009-07-01

Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10-year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

Towards flash flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, E.; Jacoby, Y.; Navon, S.; Bet-Halachmi, E.

2009-04-01

Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model utilizing radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on five years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent five-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire ten year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood-warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, Judd; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Francia Mungcal, Ma. Theresa; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Dasallas, Lea; Briones, Jo Brianne Louise; Santiago, Joy; Suarez, John Kenneth; Lapidez, John Phillip; Caro, Carl Vincent; Ladiero, Christine; Malano, Vicente

2014-05-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 08 November 2013 where more than 6,000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10-minute intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter-measures for a given PSWS.

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2014-10-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter-measures for a given PSWS.

Effect of off-season flooding on growth, photosynthesis, carbohydrate partitioning, and nutrient uptake in Distylium chinense.

PubMed

Liu, Zebin; Cheng, Ruimei; Xiao, Wenfa; Guo, Quanshui; Wang, Na

2014-01-01

Distylium chinense is an evergreen shrub used for the vegetation recovery of floodplain and riparian areas in Three Gorges Reservoir Region. To clarify the morphological and physiological responses and tolerance of Distylium chinense to off-season flooding, a simulation flooding experiment was conducted during autumn and winter. Results indicated that the survival rate of seedlings was 100%, and that plant height and stem diameter were not significantly affected by flooding. Adventitious roots and hypertrophic lenticels were observed in flooded seedlings after 30 days of flooding. Flooding significantly reduced the plant biomass of roots, net photosynthetic rate (Pn), stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration rate (Tr), maximum photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm), photochemical quenching (qP), and electron transport rate (ETR) in leaves, and also affected the allocation and transport of carbohydrate and nutrients. However, D. chinense was able to maintain stable levels of Pn, Fv/Fm, qP, ETR, and nutrient content (N and P) in leaves and to store a certain amount of carbohydrate in roots over prolonged durations of flooding. Based on these results, we conclude that there is a high flooding tolerance in D. chinense, and the high survival rate of D. chinense may be attributable to a combination of morphological and physiological responses to flooding.

Accounting for Atmospheric Rivers in the Flood Frequency Estimation in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barth, N. A.; Villarini, G.; White, K. D.

2016-12-01

The Bulletin 17B framework assumes that the observed annual peak flow data included in a flood frequency analysis are a "representative time sample of random homogeneous events." However, flood frequency analysis over the western United States is complicated by annual peak flow records that frequently contain flows generated from distinctly different flood generating mechanisms. Among the different flood generating mechanisms, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for large, regional scale floods. USGS streamgaging stations in the central Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Nevada, the central and southern California coast, and central Arizona show a mixture of 30-70% AR-generated flood peaks among the complete period of record. It is relatively common for the annual peaks fitted to the log-Pearson Type III distribution in these regions to show sharp breaks in the slope or a curve that reverses direction, pointing to the presence of different flood generating mechanisms. Following the recommendation by B17B to develop separate frequency curves when different flood agents can be identified, we will perform flood frequency analyses accounting for the role played by ARs. We will compare and contrast the results obtained by treating all annual maximum discharge values as generated from a single population against those from a mixed population analyses.

Geomorphological and sedimentological analysis of flash-flood deposits: The case of the 1997 Rivillas flood (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortega, Jose A.; Garzón Heydt, Guillermina

2009-11-01

On the basis of the description of the 1997 Rivillas flood deposits, a morphosedimentary feature classification is proposed. Mapping of the main morphosedimentary deposits in seven reaches along the basin has provided abundant data for each defined typology and for a better adjustment of their stability fields. Because of their unstable preservation environment, immediate post-flood field surveys with descriptions of erosive and depositional features were undertaken. Up to 18 features were classified as either sedimentary or erosive and mapped according to their genetic environments. Anthropic interference such as land use changes produce modification of sediment supply and in channel and floodplain erosive processes causing flash-floods to be more catastrophic. Erosive features are dominant over sedimentary ones, as the sedimentary budget in the river is negative. By means of HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center) modelling, we were able to obtain mean values of the main variables limiting feature stability (velocity, depth, stream powers and shear stress). These provide information regarding maximum stability threshold and peak flood discharge. The ephemeral nature of riverine flash-flood deposits in this type of setting does not mean that they are not significant, and their interpretation after recent floods can significantly improve interpretation of the event dynamics and its flood hydrology and also be useful for flood risk mapping.

Hydrological Retrospective of floods and droughts: Case study in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Rodrigo; Carlo Espinoza Villar, Jhan; Collischonn, Walter

2017-04-01

Recent studies have reported an increase in intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in many regions of the Amazon basin over last decades, these events such as seasonal floods and droughts have originated a significant impact in human and natural systems. Recently, methodologies such as climatic reanalysis are being developed in order to create a coherent register of climatic systems, thus taking this notion, this research efforts to produce a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), that essentially simulate large rainfall datasets over hydrological models in order to develop a record over past hydrology, enabling the analysis of past floods and droughts. We developed our methodology on the Amazon basin, thus we used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) through a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH), after that HR products were validated against several in situ discharge gauges dispersed throughout Amazon basin, given focus in maximum and minimum events. For better HR results according performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts considering in-situ observations. Furthermore, statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and drought in the whole Amazon basin. Results indicate that better HR represented well most past extreme events registered by in-situ observed data and also showed coherent with many events cited by literature, thus we consider viable to use some large precipitation datasets as climatic reanalysis mainly based on land surface component and datasets based in merged products for represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events. On the other hand, an increase trend of intensity was realized for maximum annual discharges (related to floods) in north-western regions and for minimum annual discharges (related to drought) in central-south regions of the Amazon basin, these features were previously detected by other researches. In the whole basin, we estimated an upward trend of maximum annual discharges at Amazon River. In order to estimate better future hydrological behavior and their impacts on the society, HR could be used as a methodology to understand past extreme events occurrence in many places considering the global coverage of rainfall datasets.

Emission of Carbon Dioxide Influenced by Different Water Levels from Soil Incubated Organic Residues

PubMed Central

Hossain, M. B.; Puteh, A. B.

2013-01-01

We studied the influence of different organic residues and water levels on decomposition rate and carbon sequestration in soil. Organic residues (rice straw, rice root, cow dung, and poultry litter) including control were tested under moistened and flooding systems. An experiment was laid out as a complete randomized design at 25°C for 120 days. Higher CO2-C (265.45 mg) emission was observed in moistened condition than in flooding condition from 7 to 120 days. Among the organic residues, poultry litter produced the highest CO2-C emission. Poultry litter with soil mixture increased 121% cumulative CO2-C compared to control. On average, about 38% of added poultry litter C was mineralized to CO2-C. Maximum CO2-C was found in 7 days after incubation and thereafter CO2-C emission was decreased with the increase of time. Control produced the lowest CO2-C (158.23 mg). Poultry litter produced maximum cumulative CO2-C (349.91 mg). Maximum organic carbon was obtained in cow dung which followed by other organic residues. Organic residues along with flooding condition decreased cumulative CO2-C, k value and increased organic C in soil. Maximum k value was found in poultry litter and control. Incorpored rice straw increased organic carbon and decreased k value (0.003 g d−1) in soil. In conclusion, rice straw and poultry litter were suitable for improving soil carbon. PMID:24163626