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  1. Paint Removers: Methylene Chloride and n-Methylpyrrolidone (NMP)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This webinar described the risks associated with NMP, provided an overview of TSCA section 6, and solicited input on ways EPA should address identified risks, with a particular emphasis on vulnerable populations.

  2. Nmp4/CIZ Closes the Parathyroid Hormone Anabolic Window

    PubMed Central

    Bidwell, Joseph P.; Childress, Paul; Alvarez, Marta B.; Hood, Mark; He, Yongzheng; Pavalko, Fredrick M.; Kacena, Melissa A.; Yang, Feng-Chun

    2013-01-01

    Chronic degenerative diseases are increasing with the aging U.S. population. One consequence of this phenomenon is the need for long-term osteoporosis therapies. Parathyroid hormone (PTH), the only FDA-approved treatment that adds bone to the aged skeleton, loses its potency within two years of initial treatment but the mechanism regulating its limited “anabolic window” is unknown. We have discovered that disabling the nucleocytoplasmic shuttling transcription factor nuclear matrix protein 4/cas interacting zinc finger protein (Nmp4/CIZ) in mice extends the PTH bone-forming capacity. Nmp4 was discovered during our search for nuclear matrix transcription factors that couple this hormone’s impact on osteoblast cytoskeletal and nuclear organization with its anabolic capacity. CIZ was independently discovered as a protein that associates with the focal adhesion-associated mechanosensor p130Cas. The Nmp4/CIZ-knockout (KO) skeletal phenotype exhibits a modestly enhanced bone mineral density but manifests an exaggerated response to both PTH and to BMP2 and is resistant to disuse-induced bone loss. The cellular basis of the global Nmp4/CIZ-KO skeletal phenotype remains to be elucidated but may involve an expansion of the bone marrow osteoprogenitor population along with modestly enhanced osteoblast and osteoclast activities supporting anabolic bone turnover. As a shuttling Cys2His2 zinc finger protein, Nmp4/CIZ acts as a repressive transcription factor perhaps associated with epigenetic remodeling complexes, but the functional significance of its interaction with p130Cas is not known. Despite numerous remaining questions, Nmp4/CIZ provides insights into how the anabolic window is regulated, and itself may provide an adjuvant therapy target for the treatment of osteoporosis by extending PTH anabolic efficacy. PMID:23140162

  3. Genome-Wide Mapping and Interrogation of the Nmp4 Antianabolic Bone Axis.

    PubMed

    Childress, Paul; Stayrook, Keith R; Alvarez, Marta B; Wang, Zhiping; Shao, Yu; Hernandez-Buquer, Selene; Mack, Justin K; Grese, Zachary R; He, Yongzheng; Horan, Daniel; Pavalko, Fredrick M; Warden, Stuart J; Robling, Alexander G; Yang, Feng-Chun; Allen, Matthew R; Krishnan, Venkatesh; Liu, Yunlong; Bidwell, Joseph P

    2015-09-01

    PTH is an osteoanabolic for treating osteoporosis but its potency wanes. Disabling the transcription factor nuclear matrix protein 4 (Nmp4) in healthy, ovary-intact mice enhances bone response to PTH and bone morphogenetic protein 2 and protects from unloading-induced osteopenia. These Nmp4(-/-) mice exhibit expanded bone marrow populations of osteoprogenitors and supporting CD8(+) T cells. To determine whether the Nmp4(-/-) phenotype persists in an osteoporosis model we compared PTH response in ovariectomized (ovx) wild-type (WT) and Nmp4(-/-) mice. To identify potential Nmp4 target genes, we performed bioinformatic/pathway profiling on Nmp4 chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing (ChIP-seq) data. Mice (12 w) were ovx or sham operated 4 weeks before the initiation of PTH therapy. Skeletal phenotype analysis included microcomputed tomography, histomorphometry, serum profiles, fluorescence-activated cell sorting and the growth/mineralization of cultured WT and Nmp4(-/-) bone marrow mesenchymal stem progenitor cells (MSPCs). ChIP-seq data were derived using MC3T3-E1 preosteoblasts, murine embryonic stem cells, and 2 blood cell lines. Ovx Nmp4(-/-) mice exhibited an improved response to PTH coupled with elevated numbers of osteoprogenitors and CD8(+) T cells, but were not protected from ovx-induced bone loss. Cultured Nmp4(-/-) MSPCs displayed enhanced proliferation and accelerated mineralization. ChIP-seq/gene ontology analyses identified target genes likely under Nmp4 control as enriched for negative regulators of biosynthetic processes. Interrogation of mRNA transcripts in nondifferentiating and osteogenic differentiating WT and Nmp4(-/-) MSPCs was performed on 90 Nmp4 target genes and differentiation markers. These data suggest that Nmp4 suppresses bone anabolism, in part, by regulating IGF-binding protein expression. Changes in Nmp4 status may lead to improvements in osteoprogenitor response to therapeutic cues.

  4. Genome-Wide Mapping and Interrogation of the Nmp4 Antianabolic Bone Axis

    PubMed Central

    Childress, Paul; Stayrook, Keith R.; Alvarez, Marta B.; Wang, Zhiping; Shao, Yu; Hernandez-Buquer, Selene; Mack, Justin K.; Grese, Zachary R.; He, Yongzheng; Horan, Daniel; Pavalko, Fredrick M.; Warden, Stuart J.; Robling, Alexander G.; Yang, Feng-Chun; Allen, Matthew R.; Krishnan, Venkatesh; Liu, Yunlong

    2015-01-01

    PTH is an osteoanabolic for treating osteoporosis but its potency wanes. Disabling the transcription factor nuclear matrix protein 4 (Nmp4) in healthy, ovary-intact mice enhances bone response to PTH and bone morphogenetic protein 2 and protects from unloading-induced osteopenia. These Nmp4−/− mice exhibit expanded bone marrow populations of osteoprogenitors and supporting CD8+ T cells. To determine whether the Nmp4−/− phenotype persists in an osteoporosis model we compared PTH response in ovariectomized (ovx) wild-type (WT) and Nmp4−/− mice. To identify potential Nmp4 target genes, we performed bioinformatic/pathway profiling on Nmp4 chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing (ChIP-seq) data. Mice (12 w) were ovx or sham operated 4 weeks before the initiation of PTH therapy. Skeletal phenotype analysis included microcomputed tomography, histomorphometry, serum profiles, fluorescence-activated cell sorting and the growth/mineralization of cultured WT and Nmp4−/− bone marrow mesenchymal stem progenitor cells (MSPCs). ChIP-seq data were derived using MC3T3-E1 preosteoblasts, murine embryonic stem cells, and 2 blood cell lines. Ovx Nmp4−/− mice exhibited an improved response to PTH coupled with elevated numbers of osteoprogenitors and CD8+ T cells, but were not protected from ovx-induced bone loss. Cultured Nmp4−/− MSPCs displayed enhanced proliferation and accelerated mineralization. ChIP-seq/gene ontology analyses identified target genes likely under Nmp4 control as enriched for negative regulators of biosynthetic processes. Interrogation of mRNA transcripts in nondifferentiating and osteogenic differentiating WT and Nmp4−/− MSPCs was performed on 90 Nmp4 target genes and differentiation markers. These data suggest that Nmp4 suppresses bone anabolism, in part, by regulating IGF-binding protein expression. Changes in Nmp4 status may lead to improvements in osteoprogenitor response to therapeutic cues. PMID:26244796

  5. Experimental exposure of male volunteers to N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP): acute effects and pharmacokinetics of NMP in plasma and urine.

    PubMed Central

    Akesson, B; Paulsson, K

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To study the acute effects of exposure to the increasingly used solvent, N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) in male volunteers. Further, to determine the NMP concentration in plasma and urine during and after the exposure. METHODS: Six male volunteers were exposed for eight hours on four different days to 0, 10, 25, and 50 mg/m3 NMP. Plasma was collected and urine was sampled during and after the exposure. Changes in nasal volume were measured by acoustic rhinometry and in airway resistance by spirometry. RESULTS: The eight-hour experimental exposure to 10, 25, and 50 mg/m3 did not induce discomfort to eyes or upper airways. Acute changes in nasal volume were not found, and no changes in the spirometric data could be registered. The elimination curves suggested a non-linear pattern and at the end of exposure showed mean (range) half lifes of NMP in plasma of about 4.0 (2.9-5.8) hours and in urine 4.5 (3.5-6.6) hours. The unmetabolised NMP found in urine samples collected during exposure and at the subsequent 44 hours corresponded to about 2% of the calculated absorbed dose. At the end of the exposure there was a close correlation between exposures and the plasma concentration and urinary excretion of NMP. CONCLUSIONS: NMP was absorbed through the respiratory tract and readily eliminated from the body, mainly by biotransformation to other compounds. Exposure to 10, 25, or 50 mg/m3 NMP did not cause nose, eye, or airway irritation. Thus, NMP is a mild irritant. PMID:9166128

  6. Nmp4/CIZ Suppresses Parathyroid Hormone-Induced Increases in Trabecular Bone

    PubMed Central

    ROBLING, ALEXANDER G.; CHILDRESS, PAUL; YU, JUN; COTTE, JESSICA; HELLER, AARON; PHILIP, BINU K.; BIDWELL, JOSEPH P.

    2009-01-01

    The nucleocytoplasmic shuttling transcription factor Nmp4/CIZ (nuclear matrix protein 4/cas interacting zinc finger protein) is a ubiquitously expressed protein that regulates both cytoplasmic and nuclear activities. In the nucleus, Nmp4/CIZ represses transcription of genes crucial to osteoblast differentiation and genes activated by various anabolic stimuli, including parathyroid hormone (PTH). We investigated the role of Nmp4/CIZ in the PTH-induced increase in bone by engineering mice with loss-of-function mutations in the Nmp4/CIZ gene, and treating 10-week-old female mice with anabolic doses of human PTH (1–34) at 30 μg/kg/day, 7 day/week, for 7 weeks or vehicle control. The untreated, baseline phenotype of the Nmp4-null mice between 8 and 16 weeks of age included a modest but significant increase in bone mineral density (BMD) and bone mineral content (BMC) compared to wild-type (WT) mice. Type I collagen mRNA expression was moderately elevated in the femurs of the Nmp4-null mice. The Nmp4 mutant alleles decreased body weight by 4% when expressed on a mixed background but the same alleles on a pure B6 background yielded a significant, 15% increase in body weight among the KO mice, compared to their WT controls. Hormone treatment equally enhanced BMD and BMC over vehicle-treated mice in both the WT and Nmp4-null groups but Nmp4-KO mice exhibited a significantly greater PTH-induced acquisition of femoral trabecular bone as compared to WT mice. These data support our hypothesis that Nmp4/CIZ is a transcriptional attenuator that suppresses osteoid synthesis and PTH-mediated acquisition of cancellous bone. PMID:19189321

  7. Responses to Comments for N-Methylpyrrolidone (NMP) Work Plan Risk Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document summarizes the public and external peer review comments that the EPA’s Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics (OPPT) received for the draft work plan risk assessment for n-Methylpyrrolidone (NMP).

  8. [Monograph for N-Methyl-pyrrolidone (NMP) and human biomonitoring values for the metabolites 5-Hydroxy-NMP and 2-Hydroxy-N-methylsuccinimide].

    PubMed

    2015-10-01

    1-Methyl-pyrrolidone (NMP) is used as a solvent in many technical applications. The general population may be exposed to NMP from the use as ingredient in paint and graffiti remover, indoors also from use in paints and carpeting. Because of developmental toxic effects, the use of NMP in consumer products in the EU is regulated. The developmental effects accompanied by weak maternally toxic effects in animal experiments are considered as the critical effects by the German HBM Commission. Based on these effects, HBM-I values of 10 mg/l urine for children and of 15 mg/l for adults, respectively, were derived for the metabolites 5-Hydroxy-NMP and 2-Hydroxy-N-methylsuccinimide. HBM-II-values were set to 30 mg/l urine for children and 50 mg/l for adults, respectively. Because of similar effects of the structural analogue 1-ethyl-2-pyrrolidone (NEP), the possible mixed exposure to both compounds has to be taken into account when evaluating the total burden.

  9. Human volunteer study on the inhalational and dermal absorption of N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) from the vapour phase.

    PubMed

    Bader, Michael; Wrbitzky, Renate; Blaszkewicz, Meinolf; Schäper, Michael; van Thriel, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    N-Methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) is a versatile organic solvent frequently used for surface cleaning such as paint stripping or graffiti removal. Liquid NMP is rapidly absorbed through the skin but dermal vapour phase absorption might also play an important role for the uptake of the solvent. This particular aspect was investigated in an experimental study with 16 volunteers exposed to 80 mg/m(3) NMP for 8 h under either whole-body, i.e. inhalational plus dermal, or dermal-only conditions. Additionally, the influence of moderate physical workload on the uptake of NMP was studied. The urinary concentrations of NMP and its metabolites 5-hydroxy-N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (5-HNMP) and 2-hydroxy-N-methylsuccinimide (2-HMSI) were followed for 48 h and analysed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Percutaneous uptake delayed the elimination peak times and the apparent biological half-lives of NMP and 5-HNMP. Under resting conditions, dermal-only exposure resulted in the elimination of 71 +/- 8 mg NMP equivalents as compared to 169 +/- 15 mg for whole-body exposure. Moderate workload yielded 79 +/- 8 mg NMP (dermal-only) and 238 +/- 18 mg (whole-body). Thus, dermal absorption from the vapour phase may contribute significantly to the total uptake of NMP, e.g. from workplace atmospheres. As the concentration of airborne NMP does not reflect the body dose, biomonitoring should be carried out for surveillance purposes.

  10. cNMP-AMs mimic and dissect bacterial nucleotidyl cyclase toxin effects.

    PubMed

    Beckert, Ulrike; Grundmann, Manuel; Wolter, Sabine; Schwede, Frank; Rehmann, Holger; Kaever, Volkhard; Kostenis, Evi; Seifert, Roland

    2014-09-05

    In addition to the well-known second messengers cAMP and cGMP, mammalian cells contain the cyclic pyrimidine nucleotides cCMP and cUMP. The Pseudomonas aeruginosa toxin ExoY massively increases cGMP and cUMP in cells, whereas the Bordetella pertussis toxin CyaA increases cAMP and, to a lesser extent, cCMP. To mimic and dissect toxin effects, we synthesized cNMP-acetoxymethylesters as prodrugs. cNMP-AMs rapidly and effectively released the corresponding cNMP in cells. The combination of cGMP-AM plus cUMP-AM mimicked cytotoxicity of ExoY. cUMP-AM and cGMP-AM differentially activated gene expression. Certain cCMP and cUMP effects were independent of the known cNMP effectors protein kinases A and G and guanine nucleotide exchange factor Epac. In conclusion, cNMP-AMs are useful tools to mimic and dissect bacterial nucleotidyl cyclase toxin effects.

  11. Mice Deficient in CIZ/NMP4 Develop an Attenuated Form of K/BxN-Serum Induced Arthritis.

    PubMed

    Nakamoto, Tetsuya; Izu, Yayoi; Kawasaki, Makiri; Notomi, Takuya; Hayata, Tadayoshi; Noda, Masaki; Ezura, Yoichi

    2016-04-01

    CIZ/NMP4 (Cas interacting zinc finger protein, Nmp4, Zfp384) is a transcription factor that is known to regulate matrix related-proteins. To explore the possible pathophysiological role of CIZ/NMP4 in arthritis, we examined CIZ/NMP4 expression in articular cartilage in arthritis model. CIZ/NMP4 was expressed in the articular chondrocytes of mice at low levels while its expression was enhanced when arthritis was induced. Arthritis induction increased clinical score in wild type mice. In contrast, CIZ/NMP4 deficiency suppressed such rise in the levels of arthritis score and swelling of soft tissue. CIZ/NMP4 deficiency also reduced invasion of inflammatory cells in joint tissue. Quantitative PCR analyses of mRNA from joints revealed that arthritis-induced increase in expressions of IL-1β was suppressed by CIZ/NMP4 deficiency. CIZ/NMP4 bound to IL-1β promoter and activated its transcription. The increase in CIZ/NMP4 in arthritis was also associated with enhancement in bone resorption and cartilage matrix degradation. In fact, RANKL, a signaling molecule prerequisite for osteoclastogenesis and, MMP-3, a clinical marker for arthritis were increased in joints upon arthritis induction. In contrast, CIZ/NMP4 deficiency suppressed the arthritis-induced increase in bone resorption, expression of RANKL and MMP-3 mRNA. Thus, CIZ/NMP4 plays a role in the development of arthritis at least in part through regulation of key molecules related to the arthritis.

  12. Nmp4/CIZ: road block at the intersection of PTH and load.

    PubMed

    Childress, Paul; Robling, Alexander G; Bidwell, Joseph P

    2010-02-01

    Teriparatide (parathyroid hormone, [PTH]) is the only FDA-approved drug that replaces bone lost to osteoporosis. Enhancing PTH efficacy will improve cost-effectiveness and ameliorate contraindications. Combining this hormone with load-bearing exercise may enhance therapeutic potential consistent with a growing body of evidence that these agonists are synergistic and share common signaling pathways. Additionally, neutralizing molecules that naturally suppress the anabolic response to PTH may also improve the efficacy of treatment with this hormone. Nmp4/CIZ (nuclear matrix protein 4/cas interacting zinc finger)-null mice have enhanced responses to intermittent PTH with respect to increasing trabecular bone mass and are also immune to disuse-induced bone loss likely by the removal of Nmp4/CIZ suppressive action on osteoblast function. Nmp4/CIZ activity may be sensitive to changes in the mechanical environment of the bone cell brought about by hormone- or mechanical load-induced changes in cell shape and adhesion. Nmp4 was identified in a screen for PTH-responsive nuclear matrix architectural transcription factors (ATFs) that we proposed translate hormone-induced changes in cell shape and adhesion into changes in target gene DNA conformation. CIZ was independently identified as a nucleocytoplasmic shuttling transcription factor associating with the mechano-sensitive focal adhesion proteins p130Cas and zxyin. The p130Cas/zyxin/Nmp4/CIZ pathway resembles the beta-catenin/TCF/LEF1 mechanotransduction response limb and both share features with the HMGB1 (high mobility group box 1)/RAGE (receptor for advanced glycation end products) signaling axis. Here we describe Nmp4/CIZ within the context of the PTH-induced anabolic response and consider the place of this molecule in the hierarchy of the PTH-load response network.

  13. Comparative study of NMP-preloaded and dip-loaded membranes for guided bone regeneration of rabbit cranial defects.

    PubMed

    Karfeld-Sulzer, Lindsay S; Ghayor, Chafik; Siegenthaler, Barbara; Gjoksi, Bebeka; Pohjonen, Timo H; Weber, Franz E

    2017-02-01

    Guided bone regeneration (GBR) has been utilized for several decades for the healing of cranio-maxillofacial bone defects and, particularly in the dental field, by creating space with a barrier membrane to exclude soft tissue and encourage bone growth in the membrane-protected volume. Although the first membranes were non-resorbable, a new generation of GBR membranes aims to biodegrade and provide bioactivity for better overall results. The Inion GTR™ poly(lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) membrane is not only resorbable but also bioactive, since it includes N-methylpyrrolidone (NMP), which has been shown to promote bone regeneration. In this study, the effects of loading different amounts of NMP onto the membrane through chemical vapour deposition or dipping have been explored. In vitro release demonstrated that lower levels of NMP led to lower NMP concentrations and slower release, based on total NMP loaded in the membrane. The dipped membrane released almost all of the NMP within 15 min, leading to a high NMP concentration. For the in vivo studies in rabbits, 6 mm calvarial defects were created and left untreated or covered with an ePTFE membrane or PLGA membranes dipped in, or preloaded with, NMP. Evaluation of the bony regeneration revealed that the barrier membranes improved bony healing and that a decrease in NMP content improved the performance. Overall, we have demonstrated the potential of these PLGA membranes with a more favourable NMP release profile and the significance of exploring the effect of NMP on these PLGA membranes with regard to bone ingrowth. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Synthesis of NMP, a Fluoxetine (Prozac) Precursor, in the Introductory Organic Laboratory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perrine, Daniel M.; Sabanayagam, Nathan R.; Reynolds, Kristy J.

    1998-10-01

    A synthesis of the immediate precursor of the widely used antidepressant fluoxetine (Prozac) is described. The procedure is short, safe, and simple enough to serve as a laboratory exercise for undergraduate students in the second semester of introductory organic chemistry and is one which will be particularly interesting to those planning a career in the health sciences. The compound synthesized is (°)-N,N-dimethyl-3-(p-trifluoromethylphenoxy)-3-phenylpropylamine, or "N-methyl Prozac" (NMP). The synthesis of NMP requires one two-hour period and a second three-hour period. In the first period, a common Mannich base, 3-dimethylaminopropiophenone, is reduced with sodium borohydride to form (°)-3-dimethylamino-1-phenylpropanol. In the second period, potassium t-butoxide is used to couple (°)-3-dimethylamino-1-phenylpropanol with p-chlorotrifluoromethylbenzene to form NMP, which is isolated as its oxalate salt. All processes use equipment and materials that are inexpensive and readily available in most undergraduate laboratories. Detailed physical data are given on NMP, including high-field DEPT 13C NMR.

  15. OPPT workplan risk assessment Methylene Chloride (dichloromethane; CASRN 75-09-2) and N-Methylpyrrolidone (NMP; CASRN 872-50-4)

    EPA Science Inventory

    These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of ...

  16. OPPT workplan risk assessment Methylene Chloride (dichloromethane; CASRN 75-09-2) and N-Methylpyrrolidone (NMP; CASRN 872-50-4)

    EPA Science Inventory

    These assessments will focus on the use of DCM and NMP in paint stripping. NMP exposures scenarios for this use result in inhalation and dermal exposure to consumers and workers. The low concern for environmental effects of NMP will be discussed in the assessment. In the case of ...

  17. [The use of NMP22 Bladder-Chek for the diagnosis and follow-up bladder cancer].

    PubMed

    Gonzalo Rodríguez, Victoria; Sanz Justo, Lourdes; de Miguel Santamaría, Isabel; Martínez de Iturrate, Javier; Fernández del Busto, Ernesto

    2008-04-01

    The goal of this work is to evaluate the usefulness of NMP22 BladderChek in the diagnosis and follow-up of bladder cancer, comparing it with cystoscopy and urine cytology. Group 1: 109 asymptomatic patients on follow up for bladder cancer underwent cystoscopy, cytology and NMP22 BladderChek. Group 2:15 patients with history of hematuria underwent cystoscopy and NMP22 BladderChek. Group 1: 9 patients had tumor relapse. Sensitivity was 25% for NMP22 test, 50% for citology and 100% for cystoscopy Specificity was 91.1%, 94.1% and 95% respectively. Group 2: 12 patients had bladder cancer. The sensitivity was of 83.3% for NMP22 BladderChek and 100% for cystoscopy. The specificity was of 100% for NMP22 BladderChek and 66.7% for cystoscopy. The low sensitivity of NMP22 Bladder-Chek invalidates it as alternative method to cystoscopy in the follow-up of bladder cancer. But it can be recommended for screening in patients without history of bladder cancer but with an increased risk (smokers, patients with dysuria and hematuria).

  18. Adaptation of the Nomophobia Questionnaire (NMP-Q) to Spanish in a sample of adolescents.

    PubMed

    González-Cabrera, Joaquín; León-Mejía, Ana; Pérez-Sancho, Carlota; Calvete, Esther

    2017-07-01

    Nomophobia is the fear of being out of mobile phone contact. People suffering from this anxiety disorder have feelings of stress and nervousness when access to their mobiles or computers is not possible. This work is an adaptation and validation study of the Spanish version of the Nomophobia Questionnaire (NMP-Q). The study included 306 students (46.1% males and 53.9% females) with ages ranging 13 to 19 years (Md=15.41±1.22). Exploratory factor analysis revealed four dimensions that accounted for 64.4% of total variance. The ordinal α-value was 0.95, ranging from 0.75 to 0.92 across factors. Measure of stability was calculated by the testretest method (r=0.823). Indicators of convergence with the Spanish versions of the “Mobile Phone Problem Use Scale” (r=0.654) and the “Generalized Problematic Internet Use Scale” (r=0.531) were identified. Problematic mobile phone use patterns were examined taking the 15P, 80P and 95P percentiles as cut-off points. Scores of 39, 87 and 116 on NMP-Q corresponded to occasional, at-risk and problematic users, respectively. Psychometric analysis shows that the Spanish version of the NMP-Q is a valid and reliable tool for the study of nomophobia.

  19. Human experimental exposure to N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP): toxicokinetics of NMP, 5-hydroxy- N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone, N-methylsuccinimide and 2-hydroxy- N-methylsuccinimide (2-HMSI), and biological monitoring using 2-HMSI as a biomarker.

    PubMed

    Jönsson, B A G; Akesson, B

    2003-05-01

    N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) is a strong and selective organic solvent with an extensive and increasing use. It has been reported to be a compound that is toxic to the reproductive system. The aim of this study was to evaluate toxicokinetics parameters for NMP and its metabolites, 5-hydroxy- N-methyl-2- pyrrolidone (5-HNMP), N-methylsuccinimide (MSI) and 2-hydroxy- N-methylsuccinimide (2-HMSI), and to develop a method for biological monitoring of NMP exposure that uses 2-HMSI as a biomarker. Six healthy, male volunteers were exposed to NMP in an exposure chamber for 8 h at concentrations of 10, 25 and 50 mg/m(3). In addition, three of the subjects were exposed a second time at 50 mg/m(3). Air levels were monitored by Amberlite XAD-7 sampling and gas chromatography (GC) analysis. Levels of NMP and the metabolites in plasma and urine were analysed by GC or GC with mass spectrometry detection. The concentration of 2-HMSI in plasma and urine rose during exposure and reached a peak approximately 15 h after the end of exposure. It then decayed according to a one-compartment model with a half-time of about 18 h. There were very close correlations between the NMP air levels, on the one hand, and concentrations of 2-HMSI in plasma (r=0.98) and creatinine-adjusted urinary 2-HMSI levels (r=0.96), on the other. The renal clearances were 0.13, 1.4, 0.12 and 1.2 l/h for NMP, 5-HNMP, MSI and 2-HMSI, respectively. The total clearances were 11.4, 3.2, 8.5 and 1.1 l/h for NMP, 5-HNMP, MSI and 2-HMSI, respectively. The apparent volumes of distribution were 41, 28, 120 and 28 l for NMP, 5-HNMP, MSI and 2-HMSI, respectively. Toxicokinetics parameters for NMP, 5-HNMP, MSI and 2-HMSI have been estimated. Furthermore, 2-HMSI is applicable as a biomarker of exposure to NMP, and the levels in plasma and urine may be used to indicate an exposure over three days.

  20. Nmp4/CIZ suppresses the response of bone to anabolic parathyroid hormone by regulating both osteoblasts and osteoclasts

    PubMed Central

    Childress, Paul; Philip, Binu K.; Robling, Alexander G.; Bruzzaniti, Angela; Kacena, Melissa A.; Bivi, Nicoletta; Plotkin, Lilian I.; Heller, Aaron; Bidwell, Joseph P.

    2011-01-01

    How parathyroid hormone (PTH) increases bone mass is unclear but understanding this phenomenon is significant to the improvement of osteoporosis therapy. Nmp4/CIZ is a nucleocytoplasmic shuttling transcriptional repressor that suppresses PTH-induced osteoblast gene expression and hormone-stimulated gains in murine femoral trabecular bone. To further characterize Nmp4/CIZ suppression of hormone-mediated bone growth we treated 10 wk-old Nmp4-knockout (KO) and wild-type (WT) mice with intermittent human PTH (1-34) at 30μg/kg/day or vehicle, 7 days/wk, for 2, 3, or 7 wks. Null mice treated with hormone (7 wks) gained more vertebral and tibial cancellous bone than WT animals paralleling the exaggerated response in the femur. Interestingly, Nmp4/CIZ suppression of this hormone-stimulated bone formation was not apparent during the first 2 wks of treatment. Consistent with the null mice enhanced PTH-stimulated addition of trabecular bone these animals exhibited an augmented hormone-induced increase in serum osteocalcin 3 wks into treatment. Unexpectedly the Nmp4-KO mice displayed an osteoclast phenotype. Serum C-terminal telopeptides, a marker for bone resorption, was elevated in the null mice, irrespective of treatment. Nmp4-KO bone marrow cultures produced more osteoclasts, which exhibited an elevated resorbing activity, compared to WT cultures. The expression of several genes critical to the development of both osteoblasts and osteoclasts were elevated in Nmp4-KO mice at 2 wks but not 3 wks of hormone exposure. We propose that Nmp4/CIZ dampens PTH-induced improvement of trabecular bone throughout the skeleton by transiently suppressing hormone-stimulated increases in the expression of proteins key to the required enhanced activity/number of both osteoblasts and osteoclasts. PMID:21607813

  1. Synthesis and crystal structure of 1D polyoxometalate-based composite compound, [{Gd(NMP) 6}(PMo 12O 40)] n (NMP= N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niu, Jing-Yang; Wei, Mei-Lin; Wang, Jing-Ping; Dang, Dong-Bin

    2003-07-01

    A novel compound, [{Gd(NMP) 6}(PMo 12O 40)] n, has been synthesized and characterized by IR, and UV spectroscopy, and single crystal X-ray structural analysis. It forms an unprecedented one-dimensional zigzag chain built from alternating polyanions and cationic units through Mo-O t-Gd-O t-Mo links in the crystal. In the compound, Gd 3+ is eight-coordinated with a bicapped trigonal prism geometry environment of oxygen atoms. The results of the single crystal X-ray diffraction analyses and IR are agreement and both show the metal cation units are coordinately bonded to the Keggin cluster. The UV spectrum of the title compound suggests that the compound is entirely dissociated in dilute solution.

  2. Calorimetric investigation of polyaniline and 1-methyl 2-pyrrolidone (NMP) mixtures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delmas, Geneviàve

    2001-03-01

    Mixing polyaniline powder (Pani) with polar solvents such as 1-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) generates a strong interaction at RT as indicated by the immediate development on contact of color and heat. Stirring increases color only if it is vigorous.It does not lead to complete solubility.The question arises of a dispersion or a dissolution of Pani in NMP. It was found that a oxygen-free mixture undergoes a phase-change in a slow T-ramp (0.1K/min) between 72 and 120o C.The values of Δ H are large, exothermic and critically dependant on the mixture history and nominal concentration. As an example, in similar stirring conditions at RT, Δ H increases from -2,000 to -20,000 J/g when c (nominal ) diminishes from 1.3 to 0.3 mg/cm3. Stirring is achieved either with a magnetic stirrer, by sonication or by gentle shaking. The UV-visible spectra of mixtures are measured at RT as a function of stirring conditions and c (nominal).The values of Δ H obtained in different conditions, show that the formation of a dispersion is not a pre-requisite for the phase-change. Reversibility of the phase-change is being investigated.

  3. Low cost environmental sensors for Spaceflight : NMP Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garrett, Henry B.; Buelher, Martin G.; Brinza, D.; Patel, J. U.

    2005-01-01

    An outstanding problem in spaceflight is the lack of adequate sensors for monitoring the space environment and its effects on engineering systems. By adequate, we mean low cost in terms of mission impact (e.g., low price, low mass/size, low power, low data rate, and low design impact). The New Millennium Program (NMP) is investigating the development of such a low-cost Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) package for inclusion on its technology validation flights. This effort follows from the need by NMP to characterize the space environment during testing so that potential users can extrapolate the test results to end-use conditions. The immediate objective of this effort is to develop a small diagnostic sensor package that could be obtained from commercial sources. Environments being considered are: contamination, atomic oxygen, ionizing radiation, cosmic radiation, EMI, and temperature. This talk describes the requirements and rational for selecting these environments and reviews a preliminary design that includes a micro-controller data logger with data storage and interfaces to the sensors and spacecraft. If successful, such a sensor package could be the basis of a unique, long term program for monitoring the effects of the space environment on spacecraft systems.

  4. Low Cost Environmental Sensors for Spaceflight: NMP Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) Requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garrett, Henry B.; Buehler, Martin G.; Brinza, D.; Patel, J. U.

    2005-01-01

    An outstanding problem in spaceflight is the lack of adequate sensors for monitoring the space environment and its effects on engineering systems. By adequate, we mean low cost in terms of mission impact (e.g., low price, low mass/size, low power, low data rate, and low design impact). The New Millennium Program (NMP) is investigating the development of such a low-cost Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) package for inclusion on its technology validation flights. This effort follows from the need by NMP to characterize the space environment during testing so that potential users can extrapolate the test results to end-use conditions. The immediate objective of this effort is to develop a small diagnostic sensor package that could be obtained from commercial sources. Environments being considered are: contamination, atomic oxygen, ionizing radiation, cosmic radiation, EMI, and temperature. This talk describes the requirements and rational for selecting these environments and reviews a preliminary design that includes a micro-controller data logger with data storage and interfaces to the sensors and spacecraft. If successful, such a sensor package could be the basis of a unique, long term program for monitoring the effects of the space environment on spacecraft systems.

  5. Low Cost Environmental Sensors for Spaceflight: NMP Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) Requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garrett, Henry B.; Buehler, Martin G.; Brinza, D.; Patel, J. U.

    2005-01-01

    An outstanding problem in spaceflight is the lack of adequate sensors for monitoring the space environment and its effects on engineering systems. By adequate, we mean low cost in terms of mission impact (e.g., low price, low mass/size, low power, low data rate, and low design impact). The New Millennium Program (NMP) is investigating the development of such a low-cost Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) package for inclusion on its technology validation flights. This effort follows from the need by NMP to characterize the space environment during testing so that potential users can extrapolate the test results to end-use conditions. The immediate objective of this effort is to develop a small diagnostic sensor package that could be obtained from commercial sources. Environments being considered are: contamination, atomic oxygen, ionizing radiation, cosmic radiation, EMI, and temperature. This talk describes the requirements and rational for selecting these environments and reviews a preliminary design that includes a micro-controller data logger with data storage and interfaces to the sensors and spacecraft. If successful, such a sensor package could be the basis of a unique, long term program for monitoring the effects of the space environment on spacecraft systems.

  6. Low cost environmental sensors for Spaceflight : NMP Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garrett, Henry B.; Buelher, Martin G.; Brinza, D.; Patel, J. U.

    2005-01-01

    An outstanding problem in spaceflight is the lack of adequate sensors for monitoring the space environment and its effects on engineering systems. By adequate, we mean low cost in terms of mission impact (e.g., low price, low mass/size, low power, low data rate, and low design impact). The New Millennium Program (NMP) is investigating the development of such a low-cost Space Environmental Monitor (SEM) package for inclusion on its technology validation flights. This effort follows from the need by NMP to characterize the space environment during testing so that potential users can extrapolate the test results to end-use conditions. The immediate objective of this effort is to develop a small diagnostic sensor package that could be obtained from commercial sources. Environments being considered are: contamination, atomic oxygen, ionizing radiation, cosmic radiation, EMI, and temperature. This talk describes the requirements and rational for selecting these environments and reviews a preliminary design that includes a micro-controller data logger with data storage and interfaces to the sensors and spacecraft. If successful, such a sensor package could be the basis of a unique, long term program for monitoring the effects of the space environment on spacecraft systems.

  7. Study of Nucleate Pool Boiling Performance of 2,2,2-Trifluoroethanol (TFE)/n-Methyl-2-Pyrrolidone(NMP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kojima, Hiroshi; Oka, Masahiro; Akisawa, Atsushi; Kashiwagi, Takao

    The absorption heat pump using water-LiBr solution as working fluid has widely been used for air-conditioning system in Japan. However, it is difficult to apply the system for various uses, such as the utilization of low temperature heat sources, refrigeration and air-source type heat pumps because of the properties of the working fluid. 2,2,2- Trifluoroethanol (TFE) /n-Methyl-2- Pyrrolidone(NMP)is expected to be one of the most useful working fluids for the absorption heat pump of such use. While a number of investigations are available for the heat transfer performal1ce of LiBr solution, no work has been carried out to find out the heat transfer coefficient of TFE/NMP mixtures although it is important to know the heat transfer performance of TFE/NMP mixtures to design each element of the heat pump.In this study, nucleate pool boiling heat transfer cofficients are measured for TFE/NMP mixtures in order to evaluate the heat transfer perfonnance in the generator which is one of the element of the heat pump.

  8. DEMONSTRATION OF N-METHYL PYRROLIDONE (NMP) AS A POLLUTION PREVENTION ALTERNATIVE TO PAINT STRIPPING WITH METHYLENE CHLORIDE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This objective of this paper is to demonstrate that NMP is a viable pollution prevention alternative to methylene chloride. Maine Corps Logistics Base (MCLB), Albany, GA, USA was the host site for the demonstration. MCLB's primary function is maintenance of military ground supp...

  9. DEMONSTRATION OF N-METHYL PYRROLIDONE (NMP) AS A POLLUTION PREVENTION ALTERNATIVE TO PAINT STRIPPING WITH METHYLENE CHLORIDE

    EPA Science Inventory

    This objective of this paper is to demonstrate that NMP is a viable pollution prevention alternative to methylene chloride. Maine Corps Logistics Base (MCLB), Albany, GA, USA was the host site for the demonstration. MCLB's primary function is maintenance of military ground supp...

  10. Biochemical characterization of Arabidopsis APYRASE family reveals their roles in regulating endomembrane NDP/NMP homoeostasis.

    PubMed

    Chiu, Tsan-Yu; Lao, Jeemeng; Manalansan, Bianca; Loqué, Dominique; Roux, Stanley J; Heazlewood, Joshua L

    2015-11-15

    Plant apyrases are nucleoside triphosphate (NTP) diphosphohydrolases (NTPDases) and have been implicated in an array of functions within the plant including the regulation of extracellular ATP. Arabidopsis encodes a family of seven membrane bound apyrases (AtAPY1-7) that comprise three distinct clades, all of which contain the five conserved apyrase domains. With the exception of AtAPY1 and AtAPY2, the biochemical and the sub-cellular characterization of the other members are currently unavailable. In this research, we have shown all seven Arabidopsis apyrases localize to internal membranes comprising the cis-Golgi, endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and endosome, indicating an endo-apyrase classification for the entire family. In addition, all members, with the exception of AtAPY7, can function as endo-apyrases by complementing a yeast double mutant (Δynd1Δgda1) which lacks apyrase activity. Interestingly, complementation of the mutant yeast using well characterized human apyrases could only be accomplished by using a functional ER endo-apyrase (NTPDase6), but not the ecto-apyrase (NTPDase1). Furthermore, the substrate specificity analysis for the Arabidopsis apyrases AtAPY1-6 indicated that each member has a distinct set of preferred substrates covering various NDPs (nucleoside diphosphates) and NTPs. Combining the biochemical analysis and sub-cellular localization of the Arabidopsis apyrases family, the data suggest their possible roles in regulating endomembrane NDP/NMP (nucleoside monophosphate) homoeostasis. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

  11. The novel fluorescent CDP-analogue (Pbeta)MABA-CDP is a specific probe for the NMP binding site of UMP/CMP kinase.

    PubMed Central

    Rudolph, M. G.; Veit, T. J.; Reinstein, J.

    1999-01-01

    Direct thermodynamic and kinetic investigations of the binding of nucleotides to the nucleoside monophosphate (NMP) site of NMP kinases have not been possible so far because a spectroscopic probe was not available. By coupling a fluorescent N-methylanthraniloyl- (mant) group to the beta-phosphate of CDP via a butyl linker, a CDP analogue [(Pbeta)MABA-CDP] was obtained that still binds specifically to the NMP site of UmpKdicty, because the base and the ribose moieties, which are involved in specific interactions, are not modified. This allows the direct determination of binding constants for its substrates in competition experiments. PMID:10631985

  12. NMP and O2 as Radical Initiator: Trifluoromethylation of Alkenes to Tertiary β-Trifluoromethyl Alcohols at Room Temperature.

    PubMed

    Liu, Chao; Lu, Qingquan; Huang, Zhiyuan; Zhang, Jian; Liao, Fan; Peng, Pan; Lei, Aiwen

    2015-12-18

    A novel strategy was developed to trigger ·CF3 by using in situ generated peroxide in NMP under O2 or air as the radical initiator. Radical trifluoromethylation of alkenes was achieved toward tertiary β-trifluoromethyl alcohols. Various tertiary β-trifluoromethyl alcohols can be synthesized in good yields without extra oxidants or transition metal catalysts. Preliminary mechanistic investigation revealed that O2 diffusion can influence the reaction rate.

  13. DMAC and NMP as Electrolyte Additives for Li-Ion Cells

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smart, Marshall; Bugga, Ratnakumar; Lucht, Brett

    2008-01-01

    Dimethyl acetamide (DMAC) and N-methyl pyrrolidinone (NMP) have been found to be useful as high-temperature-resilience-enhancing additives to a baseline electrolyte used in rechargeable lithium-ion electrochemical cells. The baseline electrolyte, which was previously formulated to improve low-temperature performance, comprises LiPF6 dissolved at a concentration of 1.0 M in a mixture comprising equal volume proportions of ethylene carbonate, diethyl carbonate, and dimethyl carbonate. This and other electrolytes comprising lithium salts dissolved in mixtures of esters (including alkyl carbonates) have been studied in continuing research directed toward extending the lower limits of operating temperatures and, more recently, enhancing the high-temperature resilience of such cells. This research at earlier stages, and the underlying physical and chemical principles, were reported in numerous previous NASA Tech Briefs articles. Although these electrolytes provide excellent performance at low temperatures (typically as low as -40 C), when the affected Li-ion cells are subjected to high temperatures during storage and cycling, there occur irreversible losses of capacity accompanied by power fade and deterioration of low-temperature performance. The term "high-temperature resilience" signifies, loosely, the ability of a cell to resist such deterioration, retaining as much as possible of its initial charge/discharge capacity during operation or during storage in the fully charged condition at high temperature. For the purposes of the present development, a temperature is considered to be high if it equals or exceeds the upper limit (typically, 30 C) of the operating-temperature range for which the cells in question are generally designed.

  14. Embryotoxic potential of N-methyl-pyrrolidone (NMP) and three of its metabolites using the rat whole embryo culture system

    SciTech Connect

    Flick, Burkhard Talsness, Chris E.; Jaeckh, Rudolf; Buesen, Roland; Klug, Stephan

    2009-06-01

    N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP), which undergoes extensive biotransformation, has been shown in vivo to cause developmental toxicity and, especially after oral treatment, malformations in rats and rabbits. Data are lacking as to whether the original compound or one of its main metabolites is responsible for the toxic effects observed. Therefore, the relative embryotoxicity of the parent compound and its metabolites was evaluated using rat whole embryo culture (WEC) and the balb/c 3T3 cytotoxicity test. The resulting data were evaluated using two strategies; namely, one based on using all endpoints determined in the WEC and the other including endpoints from both the WEC and the cytotoxicity test. On basis of the first analysis, the substance with the highest embryotoxic potential is NMP, followed by 5-hydroxy-N-methyl-pyrrolidone (5-HNMP), 2-hydroxy-N-methylsuccinimide (2-HMSI) and N-methylsuccinimide (MSI). Specific dysmorphogeneses induced by NMP and 5-HNMP were aberrations in the head region of the embryos, abnormal development of the second visceral arches and open neural pores. The second evaluation strategy used only two endpoints of the WEC, i.e. the no observed adverse effect concentration (NOAEC{sub WEC}) and the lowest concentration leading to dysmorphogenesis in 100% of the cultured embryos (IC{sub MaxWEC}). In addition to these WEC endpoints the IC{sub 503T3} from the cytotoxicity test (balb/c 3T3 fibroblasts) was included in the evaluation scheme. These three endpoints were applied to a prediction model developed during a validation study of the European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM) allowing the classification of the embryotoxic potential of each compound into three classes (non-, weakly- and strongly embryotoxic). Consistent results from both evaluation strategies were observed, whereby NMP and its metabolites revealed a direct embryotoxic potential. Hereby, only NMP and 5-HNMP induced specific embryotoxic effects and were

  15. Tungsten carbide nanorods with titanium dioxide composite counter electrode: Effect of NMP to enhanced efficiency in dye sensitized solar cell (DSSC)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vijayakumar, P.; Pandian, M. Senthil; Ramasamy, P.

    2017-05-01

    Tungsten carbide Nanorods / Titanium dioxide (WC NRs/TiO2) composite material was successfully prepared and used as a counter electrode (CE) in DSSC. The N-Methyl pyrrolidone (NMP) played a crucial role in determining the efficiency of a resultant counter eelctrode material. The structural and morphological analysis were confirmed by XRD and FESEM with EDS. The photovoltaic performance was evaluated under the simulated conditions AM 1.5 light intensity (100 mW/cm2). DSSC fabricated using WC NRs/TiO2 with NMP showed an efficiency (η) of 4.7%, which is compared with WC NRs/TiO2 with 2-propanol based DSSC (η =2.9%). The results concluded NMP is the suitable organic binder for counter electrode preparation.

  16. Interaction partners for human ZNF384/CIZ/NMP4-zyxin as a mediator for p130CAS signaling?

    SciTech Connect

    Janssen, Hilde; Marynen, Peter . E-mail: Peter.Marynen@med.kuleuven.be

    2006-04-15

    Transcription factor ZNF384/CIZ/NMP4 was first cloned in rat as a p130Cas-binding protein and has a role in bone metabolism and spermatogenesis. It is recurrently involved in translocations in acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Translocations t(12;17) and t(12;22) fuse ZNF384 to RNA-binding proteins TAF15 and EWSR1, while a translocation t(12;19) generates an E2A/ZNF384 fusion. We screened for ZNF384 interacting proteins using yeast two-hybrid technology. In contrast to its rat homolog, human ZNF384 does not interact with p130CAS. Zyxin, PCBP1, and vimentin, however, were identified as ZNF384-binding partners. Given the interaction between human zyxin and p130CAS, these results suggest that zyxin indirectly enables the interaction of ZNF384 with p130CAS which is described in rat.

  17. Probability Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaynes, E. T.; Bretthorst, G. Larry

    2003-04-01

    Foreword; Preface; Part I. Principles and Elementary Applications: 1. Plausible reasoning; 2. The quantitative rules; 3. Elementary sampling theory; 4. Elementary hypothesis testing; 5. Queer uses for probability theory; 6. Elementary parameter estimation; 7. The central, Gaussian or normal distribution; 8. Sufficiency, ancillarity, and all that; 9. Repetitive experiments, probability and frequency; 10. Physics of 'random experiments'; Part II. Advanced Applications: 11. Discrete prior probabilities, the entropy principle; 12. Ignorance priors and transformation groups; 13. Decision theory: historical background; 14. Simple applications of decision theory; 15. Paradoxes of probability theory; 16. Orthodox methods: historical background; 17. Principles and pathology of orthodox statistics; 18. The Ap distribution and rule of succession; 19. Physical measurements; 20. Model comparison; 21. Outliers and robustness; 22. Introduction to communication theory; References; Appendix A. Other approaches to probability theory; Appendix B. Mathematical formalities and style; Appendix C. Convolutions and cumulants.

  18. Dynamic coupling between the LID and NMP domain motions in the catalytic conversion of ATP and AMP to ADP by adenylate kinase.

    PubMed

    Jana, Biman; Adkar, Bharat V; Biswas, Rajib; Bagchi, Biman

    2011-01-21

    The catalytic conversion of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) and adenosine monophosphate (AMP) to adenosine diphosphate (ADP) by adenylate kinase (ADK) involves large amplitude, ligand induced domain motions, involving the opening and the closing of ATP binding domain (LID) and AMP binding domain (NMP) domains, during the repeated catalytic cycle. We discover and analyze an interesting dynamical coupling between the motion of the two domains during the opening, using large scale atomistic molecular dynamics trajectory analysis, covariance analysis, and multidimensional free energy calculations with explicit water. Initially, the LID domain must open by a certain amount before the NMP domain can begin to open. Dynamical correlation map shows interesting cross-peak between LID and NMP domain which suggests the presence of correlated motion between them. This is also reflected in our calculated two-dimensional free energy surface contour diagram which has an interesting elliptic shape, revealing a strong correlation between the opening of the LID domain and that of the NMP domain. Our free energy surface of the LID domain motion is rugged due to interaction with water and the signature of ruggedness is evident in the observed root mean square deviation variation and its fluctuation time correlation functions. We develop a correlated dynamical disorder-type theoretical model to explain the observed dynamic coupling between the motion of the two domains in ADK. Our model correctly reproduces several features of the cross-correlation observed in simulations.

  19. Lexicographic Probability, Conditional Probability, and Nonstandard Probability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-11-11

    the following conditions: CP1. µ(U |U) = 1 if U ∈ F ′. CP2 . µ(V1 ∪ V2 |U) = µ(V1 |U) + µ(V2 |U) if V1 ∩ V2 = ∅, U ∈ F ′, and V1, V2 ∈ F . CP3. µ(V |U...µ(V |X)× µ(X |U) if V ⊆ X ⊆ U , U,X ∈ F ′, V ∈ F . Note that it follows from CP1 and CP2 that µ(· |U) is a probability measure on (W,F) (and, in... CP2 hold. This is easily seen to determine µ. Moreover, µ vaciously satisfies CP3, since there do not exist distinct sets U and X in F ′ such that U

  20. Confidence Probability versus Detection Probability

    SciTech Connect

    Axelrod, M

    2005-08-18

    In a discovery sampling activity the auditor seeks to vet an inventory by measuring (or inspecting) a random sample of items from the inventory. When the auditor finds every sample item in compliance, he must then make a confidence statement about the whole inventory. For example, the auditor might say: ''We believe that this inventory of 100 items contains no more than 5 defectives with 95% confidence.'' Note this is a retrospective statement in that it asserts something about the inventory after the sample was selected and measured. Contrast this to the prospective statement: ''We will detect the existence of more than 5 defective items in this inventory with 95% probability.'' The former uses confidence probability while the latter uses detection probability. For a given sample size, the two probabilities need not be equal, indeed they could differ significantly. Both these probabilities critically depend on the auditor's prior belief about the number of defectives in the inventory and how he defines non-compliance. In other words, the answer strongly depends on how the question is framed.

  1. Solute Transport Proteins and the Outer Membrane Protein NmpC Contribute to Heat Resistance of Escherichia coli AW1.7▿

    PubMed Central

    Ruan, Lifang; Pleitner, Aaron; Gänzle, Michael G.; McMullen, Lynn M.

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed to elucidate determinants of heat resistance in Escherichia coli by comparing the composition of membrane lipids, as well as gene expression, in heat-resistant E. coli AW1.7 and heat-sensitive E. coli GGG10 with or without heat shock. The survival of E. coli AW1.7 at late exponential phase was 100-fold higher than that of E. coli GGG10 after incubation at 60°C for 15 min. The cytoplasmic membrane of E. coli AW1.7 contained a higher proportion of saturated and cyclopropane fatty acids than that of E. coli GGG10. Microarray hybridization of cDNA libraries obtained from exponentially growing or heat-shocked cultures was performed to compare gene expression in these two strains. Expression of selected genes from different functional groups was quantified by quantitative PCR. DnaK and 30S and 50S ribosomal subunits were overexpressed in E. coli GGG10 relative to E. coli AW1.7 upon heat shock at 50°C, indicating improved ribosome stability. The outer membrane porin NmpC and several transport proteins were overexpressed in exponentially growing E. coli AW1.7. Sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis analysis of membrane properties confirmed that NmpC is present in the outer membrane of E. coli AW1.7 but not in that of E. coli GGG10. Expression of NmpC in E. coli GGG10 increased survival at 60°C 50- to 1,000-fold. In conclusion, the outer membrane porin NmpC contributes to heat resistance in E. coli AW1.7, but the heat resistance of this strain is dependent on additional factors, which likely include the composition of membrane lipids, as well as solute transport proteins. PMID:21398480

  2. Preparation of Au-Pt nanostructures by combining top-down with bottom-up strategies and application in label-free electrochemical immunosensor for detection of NMP22.

    PubMed

    Jia, Hongying; Gao, Picheng; Ma, Hongmin; Wu, Dan; Du, Bin; Wei, Qin

    2015-02-01

    A novel label-free amperometric immunosensor for sensitive detection of nuclear matrix protein 22 (NMP22) was developed based on Au-Pt bimetallic nanostructures, which were prepared by combining top-down with bottom-up strategies. Nanoporous gold (NPG) was prepared by "top-down" dealloying of commercial Au/Ag alloy film. After deposition of NPG on an electrode, Pt nanoparticles (PtNPs) were further decorated on NPG by "bottom-up" electrodeposition. The prepared bimetallic nanostructures combine the merits of both NPG and PtNPs, and show a high electrocatalytic activity towards the reduction of H2O2. The label-free immunosensor was constructed by directly immobilizing antibody of NMP22 (anti-NMP22) on the surface of bimetallic nanostructures. The immunoreaction induced amperometric response could be detected and negatively correlated to the concentration of NMP22. Bimetallic nanostructure morphologies and detection conditions were investigated to obtain the best sensing performance. Under the optimal conditions, a linear range from 0.01ng/mL to 10ng/mL and a detection limit of 3.33pg/mL were obtained. The proposed immunosensor showed high sensitivity, good selectivity, stability, reproducibility, and regeneration for the detection of NMP22, and it was evaluated in urine samples, receiving satisfactory results.

  3. Probability 1/e

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  4. Probability 1/e

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  5. TAF15 and the leukemia-associated fusion protein TAF15-CIZ/NMP4 are cleaved by caspases-3 and -7

    SciTech Connect

    Alves, Juliano; Wurdak, Heiko; Garay-Malpartida, Humberto M.; Harris, Jennifer L.; Occhiucci, Joao M.; Belizario, Jose E.; Li, Jun

    2009-07-10

    Caspases are central players in proteolytic pathways that regulate cellular processes such as apoptosis and differentiation. To accelerate the discovery of novel caspase substrates we developed a method combining in silico screening and in vitro validation. With this approach, we identified TAF15 as a novel caspase substrate in a trial study. We find that TAF15 was specifically cleaved by caspases-3 and -7. Site-directed mutagenesis revealed the consensus sequence {sup 106}DQPD/Y{sup 110} as the only site recognized by these caspases. Surprisingly, TAF15 was cleaved at more than one site in staurosporine-treated Jurkat cells. In addition, we generated two oncogenic TAF15-CIZ/NMP4-fused proteins which have been found in acute myeloid leukemia and demonstrate that caspases-3 and -7 cleave the fusion proteins at one single site. Broad application of this combination approach should expedite identification of novel caspase-interacting proteins and provide new insights into the regulation of caspase pathways leading to cell death in normal and cancer cells.

  6. Probability and Relative Frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drieschner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The concept of probability seems to have been inexplicable since its invention in the seventeenth century. In its use in science, probability is closely related with relative frequency. So the task seems to be interpreting that relation. In this paper, we start with predicted relative frequency and show that its structure is the same as that of probability. I propose to call that the `prediction interpretation' of probability. The consequences of that definition are discussed. The "ladder"-structure of the probability calculus is analyzed. The expectation of the relative frequency is shown to be equal to the predicted relative frequency. Probability is shown to be the most general empirically testable prediction.

  7. What Are Probability Surveys?

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

  8. Evolution and Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bailey, David H.

    2000-01-01

    Some of the most impressive-sounding criticisms of the conventional theory of biological evolution involve probability. Presents a few examples of how probability should and should not be used in discussing evolution. (ASK)

  9. Dependent Probability Spaces

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris

    2008-01-01

    The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…

  10. Dynamical Simulation of Probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices(such as random number generators). Self-orgainizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed. Special attention was focused upon coupled stochastic processes, defined in terms of conditional probabilities, for which joint probability does not exist. Simulations of quantum probabilities are also discussed.

  11. Dynamical Simulation of Probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices(such as random number generators). Self-orgainizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed. Special attention was focused upon coupled stochastic processes, defined in terms of conditional probabilities, for which joint probability does not exist. Simulations of quantum probabilities are also discussed.

  12. Probability and radical behaviorism

    PubMed Central

    Espinosa, James M.

    1992-01-01

    The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforcement and extinction, respectively. PMID:22478114

  13. Probability of satellite collision

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  14. Statistics and Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laktineh, Imad

    2010-04-01

    This ourse constitutes a brief introduction to probability applications in high energy physis. First the mathematical tools related to the diferent probability conepts are introduced. The probability distributions which are commonly used in high energy physics and their characteristics are then shown and commented. The central limit theorem and its consequences are analysed. Finally some numerical methods used to produce diferent kinds of probability distribution are presented. The full article (17 p.) corresponding to this lecture is written in french and is provided in the proceedings of the book SOS 2008.

  15. PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, REPORTS), (*PROBABILITY, REPORTS), INFORMATION THEORY, DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, DISTRIBUTION THEORY , DECISION THEORY, MEASURE THEORY, OPTIMIZATION

  16. Probability and Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, Bernis, Ed.; And Others

    This teacher's guide to probability and statistics contains three major sections. The first section on elementary combinatorial principles includes activities, student problems, and suggested teaching procedures for the multiplication principle, permutations, and combinations. Section two develops an intuitive approach to probability through…

  17. Teachers' Understandings of Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Yan; Thompson, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    Probability is an important idea with a remarkably wide range of applications. However, psychological and instructional studies conducted in the last two decades have consistently documented poor understanding of probability among different populations across different settings. The purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical framework for…

  18. Guide star probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soneira, R. M.; Bahcall, J. N.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilities are calculated for acquiring suitable guide stars (GS) with the fine guidance system (FGS) of the space telescope. A number of the considerations and techniques described are also relevant for other space astronomy missions. The constraints of the FGS are reviewed. The available data on bright star densities are summarized and a previous error in the literature is corrected. Separate analytic and Monte Carlo calculations of the probabilities are described. A simulation of space telescope pointing is carried out using the Weistrop north galactic pole catalog of bright stars. Sufficient information is presented so that the probabilities of acquisition can be estimated as a function of position in the sky. The probability of acquiring suitable guide stars is greatly increased if the FGS can allow an appreciable difference between the (bright) primary GS limiting magnitude and the (fainter) secondary GS limiting magnitude.

  19. Bayesian Brains without Probabilities.

    PubMed

    Sanborn, Adam N; Chater, Nick

    2016-12-01

    Bayesian explanations have swept through cognitive science over the past two decades, from intuitive physics and causal learning, to perception, motor control and language. Yet people flounder with even the simplest probability questions. What explains this apparent paradox? How can a supposedly Bayesian brain reason so poorly with probabilities? In this paper, we propose a direct and perhaps unexpected answer: that Bayesian brains need not represent or calculate probabilities at all and are, indeed, poorly adapted to do so. Instead, the brain is a Bayesian sampler. Only with infinite samples does a Bayesian sampler conform to the laws of probability; with finite samples it systematically generates classic probabilistic reasoning errors, including the unpacking effect, base-rate neglect, and the conjunction fallacy. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Probability with Roulette

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, Jennings B.

    2007-01-01

    This article describes how roulette can be used to teach basic concepts of probability. Various bets are used to illustrate the computation of expected value. A betting system shows variations in patterns that often appear in random events.

  1. Asteroidal collision probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bottke, W. F.; Greenberg, R.

    1993-05-01

    Several past calculations of collision probabilities between pairs of bodies on independent orbits have yielded inconsistent results. We review the methodologies and identify their various problems. Greenberg's (1982) collision probability formalism (now with a corrected symmetry assumption) is equivalent to Wetherill's (1967) approach, except that it includes a way to avoid singularities near apsides. That method shows that the procedure by Namiki and Binzel (1991) was accurate for those cases where singularities did not arise.

  2. Rationalizing Hybrid Earthquake Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.; Beeler, N.; Cocco, M.; Belardinelli, M.

    2003-12-01

    An approach to including stress transfer and frictional effects in estimates of the probability of failure of a single fault affected by a nearby earthquake has been suggested in Stein et al. (1997). This `hybrid' approach combines conditional probabilities, which depend on the time elapsed since the last earthquake on the affected fault, with Poissonian probabilities that account for friction and depend only on the time since the perturbing earthquake. The latter are based on the seismicity rate change model developed by Dieterich (1994) to explain the temporal behavior of aftershock sequences in terms of rate-state frictional processes. The model assumes an infinite population of nucleation sites that are near failure at the time of the perturbing earthquake. In the hybrid approach, assuming the Dieterich model can lead to significant transient increases in failure probability. We explore some of the implications of applying the Dieterich model to a single fault and its impact on the hybrid probabilities. We present two interpretations that we believe can rationalize the use of the hybrid approach. In the first, a statistical distribution representing uncertainties in elapsed and/or mean recurrence time on the fault serves as a proxy for Dieterich's population of nucleation sites. In the second, we imagine a population of nucleation patches distributed over the fault with a distribution of maturities. In both cases we find that the probability depends on the time since the last earthquake. In particular, the size of the transient probability increase may only be significant for faults already close to failure. Neglecting the maturity of a fault may lead to overestimated rate and probability increases.

  3. Quantum computing and probability.

    PubMed

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  4. Probabilities in implicit learning.

    PubMed

    Tseng, Philip; Hsu, Tzu-Yu; Tzeng, Ovid J L; Hung, Daisy L; Juan, Chi-Hung

    2011-01-01

    The visual system possesses a remarkable ability in learning regularities from the environment. In the case of contextual cuing, predictive visual contexts such as spatial configurations are implicitly learned, retained, and used to facilitate visual search-all without one's subjective awareness and conscious effort. Here we investigated whether implicit learning and its facilitatory effects are sensitive to the statistical property of such implicit knowledge. In other words, are highly probable events learned better than less probable ones even when such learning is implicit? We systematically varied the frequencies of context repetition to alter the degrees of learning. Our results showed that search efficiency increased consistently as contextual probabilities increased. Thus, the visual contexts, along with their probability of occurrences, were both picked up by the visual system. Furthermore, even when the total number of exposures was held constant between each probability, the highest probability still enjoyed a greater cuing effect, suggesting that the temporal aspect of implicit learning is also an important factor to consider in addition to the effect of mere frequency. Together, these findings suggest that implicit learning, although bypassing observers' conscious encoding and retrieval effort, behaves much like explicit learning in the sense that its facilitatory effect also varies as a function of its associative strengths.

  5. Launch Collision Probability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bollenbacher, Gary; Guptill, James D.

    1999-01-01

    This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. ne impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.

  6. The perception of probability.

    PubMed

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making.

  7. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  8. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  9. Estimating tail probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Carr, D.B.; Tolley, H.D.

    1982-12-01

    This paper investigates procedures for univariate nonparametric estimation of tail probabilities. Extrapolated values for tail probabilities beyond the data are also obtained based on the shape of the density in the tail. Several estimators which use exponential weighting are described. These are compared in a Monte Carlo study to nonweighted estimators, to the empirical cdf, to an integrated kernel, to a Fourier series estimate, to a penalized likelihood estimate and a maximum likelihood estimate. Selected weighted estimators are shown to compare favorably to many of these standard estimators for the sampling distributions investigated.

  10. Varga: On Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Varga, Tamas

    This booklet resulted from a 1980 visit by the author, a Hungarian mathematics educator, to the Teachers' Center Project at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. Included are activities and problems that make probablility concepts accessible to young children. The topics considered are: two probability games; choosing two beads; matching…

  11. Approximating Integrals Using Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.; Caudle, Kyle A.

    2005-01-01

    As part of a discussion on Monte Carlo methods, which outlines how to use probability expectations to approximate the value of a definite integral. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on this technique and then to show several examples using visual basic as a programming tool. It is an interesting method because it combines two branches of…

  12. Univariate Probability Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leemis, Lawrence M.; Luckett, Daniel J.; Powell, Austin G.; Vermeer, Peter E.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a web-based interactive graphic that can be used as a resource in introductory classes in mathematical statistics. This interactive graphic presents 76 common univariate distributions and gives details on (a) various features of the distribution such as the functional form of the probability density function and cumulative distribution…

  13. Univariate Probability Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leemis, Lawrence M.; Luckett, Daniel J.; Powell, Austin G.; Vermeer, Peter E.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a web-based interactive graphic that can be used as a resource in introductory classes in mathematical statistics. This interactive graphic presents 76 common univariate distributions and gives details on (a) various features of the distribution such as the functional form of the probability density function and cumulative distribution…

  14. A Unifying Probability Example.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.

    2002-01-01

    Presents an example from probability and statistics that ties together several topics including the mean and variance of a discrete random variable, the binomial distribution and its particular mean and variance, the sum of independent random variables, the mean and variance of the sum, and the central limit theorem. Uses Excel to illustrate these…

  15. Approximating Integrals Using Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.; Caudle, Kyle A.

    2005-01-01

    As part of a discussion on Monte Carlo methods, which outlines how to use probability expectations to approximate the value of a definite integral. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on this technique and then to show several examples using visual basic as a programming tool. It is an interesting method because it combines two branches of…

  16. Message Receipt Probabilities

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-11-01

    character strings, the length includes one space. Hence x ■ •ttW) - ifr 𔃻-ř + 5<>-*>4 *»)♦ 2(»-*>4 ♦ «>-*>31 The probability of accepting an incorrect...LETTERS SPELLED OUT ALFA NOVEMBER BRAVO OSCAR CHARLIE PAPA DELTA QUEBEC ECHO ROMEO FOXTROT SIERRA GOLF TANGO HOTEL UNIFORM INDIA VICTOR JULIET

  17. Bayesian Probability Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  18. Superpositions of probability distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen

    2008-09-01

    Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=σ2 play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.

  19. Efficient Probability Sequences

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-08-18

    Ungar (2014), to produce a distinct forecasting system. The system consists of the method for eliciting individual subjective forecasts together with...E. Stone, and L. H. Ungar (2014). Two reasons to make aggregated probability forecasts more extreme. Decision Analysis 11 (2), 133–145. Bickel, J. E...Letters 91 (3), 425–429. Mellers, B., L. Ungar , J. Baron, J. Ramos, B. Gurcay, K. Fincher, S. E. Scott, D. Moore, P. Atanasov, S. A. Swift, et al. (2014

  20. Searching with Probabilities

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-07-26

    DeGroot , Morris H. Probability and Statistic. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, Massachusetts, 1975. [Gillogly 78] Gillogly, J.J. Performance...distribution [ DeGroot 751 has just begun. The beta distribution has several features that might make it a more reasonable choice. As with the normal-based...1982. [Cooley 65] Cooley, J.M. and Tukey, J.W. An algorithm for the machine calculation of complex Fourier series. Math. Comp. 19, 1965. [ DeGroot 75

  1. Regional flood probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Troutman, B.M.; Karlinger, M.R.

    2003-01-01

    The T-year annual maximum flood at a site is defined to be that streamflow, that has probability 1/T of being exceeded in any given year, and for a group of sites the corresponding regional flood probability (RFP) is the probability that at least one site will experience a T-year flood in any given year. The RFP depends on the number of sites of interest and on the spatial correlation of flows among the sites. We present a Monte Carlo method for obtaining the RFP and demonstrate that spatial correlation estimates used in this method may be obtained with rank transformed data and therefore that knowledge of the at-site peak flow distribution is not necessary. We examine the extent to which the estimates depend on specification of a parametric form for the spatial correlation function, which is known to be nonstationary for peak flows. It is shown in a simulation study that use of a stationary correlation function to compute RFPs yields satisfactory estimates for certain nonstationary processes. Application of asymptotic extreme value theory is examined, and a methodology for separating channel network and rainfall effects on RFPs is suggested. A case study is presented using peak flow data from the state of Washington. For 193 sites in the Puget Sound region it is estimated that a 100-year flood will occur on the average every 4,5 years.

  2. Probability of causation approach

    SciTech Connect

    Jose, D.E.

    1988-08-01

    Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice.

  3. Retrieve Tether Survival Probability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    cuts of the tether by meteorites and orbital debris , is calculated to be 99.934% for the planned experiment duration of six months or less. This is...due to the unlikely event of a strike by a large piece of orbital debris greater than 1 meter in size cutting all the lines of the tether at once. The...probability of the tether surviving multiple cuts by meteoroid and orbital debris impactors smaller than 5 cm in diameter is 99.9993% at six months

  4. Origin of Quantum Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2001-12-01

    We demonstrate that the origin of the quantum probabilistic rule (which differs from the conventional Bayes' formula by the presence of cos θ-factor) might be explained by perturbation effects of preparation and measurement procedures. The main consequence of our investigation is that interference could be produced by purely corpuscular objects. In particular, the quantum rule for probabilities (with nontrivial cos θ-factor) could be simulated for macroscopic physical systems via preparation procedures producing statistical deviations of a special form. We discuss preparation and measurement procedures which may produce probabilistic rules which are neither classical nor quantum; in particular, hyperbolic 'quantum theory.'

  5. Probabilities for Solar Siblings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valtonen, Mauri; Bajkova, A. T.; Bobylev, V. V.; Mylläri, A.

    2015-02-01

    We have shown previously (Bobylev et al. Astron Lett 37:550-562, 2011) that some of the stars in the solar neighborhood today may have originated in the same star cluster as the Sun, and could thus be called Solar Siblings. In this work we investigate the sensitivity of this result to galactic models and to parameters of these models, and also extend the sample of orbits. There are a number of good candidates for the sibling category, but due to the long period of orbit evolution since the break-up of the birth cluster of the Sun, one can only attach probabilities of membership. We find that up to 10 % (but more likely around 1 %) of the members of the Sun's birth cluster could be still found within 100 pc from the Sun today.

  6. Serial urinary IL-2, IL-6, IL-8, TNFalpha, UBC, CYFRA 21-1 and NMP22 during follow-up of patients with bladder cancer receiving intravesical BCG.

    PubMed

    Sanchez-Carbayo, M; Urrutia, M; Romani, R; Herrero, M; Gonzalez de Buitrago, J M; Navajo, J A

    2001-01-01

    We evaluated the potential role of serial preinstillation levels of several interleukins, TNFalpha and urinary tumor markers to monitor patients with bladder cancer receiving intravesical BCG. 121 urine samples were collected from: patients with bladder cancer treated with BCG (group 1); patients with bladder cancer receiving other intravesical treatment (group 2) and patients with urinary tract infections (group 3). Cytokines [IL-2, IL6 and [L8] and TNFalpha and urinary tumor markers [UBC, CYFRA 21-1 and NMP22] were measured by immunoassays. In 3 out of 15 BCG non-responders that recurred over the period of the study, no cytokine peak for IL-2, IL-6 or TNFa were detected. Urinary tumor markers increased in 2 out of 3 of these patients earlier than scheduled cystoscopies. Cytokine measurement was heterogeneous among 12 out of 15 BCG-responding patients: there were low levels of IL-6 and TNFalpha and peaks of IL-2 and IL-8 in 10 out of 12 and 4 out of 12 patients, respectively. During responding patients' follow-up we observed false-positive results in 7 out of 65 urine samples for UBC, 8 out of 65 for CYFRA 21-1 and 20 out of 65 for NMP22. Urinary tract infections were the main factor associated with non-specific elevations of IL-6 and IL-8 and urinary tumor markers in all groups of patients. Although larger series are required to confirn our preliminary observations, our data argue for a potential predictive role for IL-2 of favourable response to BCG therapy. Monitoring BCG with urinary tumor markers could early detect recurrence in non-responding patients.

  7. People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).

    PubMed

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2016-09-01

    A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities.

  8. Probability state modeling theory.

    PubMed

    Bagwell, C Bruce; Hunsberger, Benjamin C; Herbert, Donald J; Munson, Mark E; Hill, Beth L; Bray, Chris M; Preffer, Frederic I

    2015-07-01

    As the technology of cytometry matures, there is mounting pressure to address two major issues with data analyses. The first issue is to develop new analysis methods for high-dimensional data that can directly reveal and quantify important characteristics associated with complex cellular biology. The other issue is to replace subjective and inaccurate gating with automated methods that objectively define subpopulations and account for population overlap due to measurement uncertainty. Probability state modeling (PSM) is a technique that addresses both of these issues. The theory and important algorithms associated with PSM are presented along with simple examples and general strategies for autonomous analyses. PSM is leveraged to better understand B-cell ontogeny in bone marrow in a companion Cytometry Part B manuscript. Three short relevant videos are available in the online supporting information for both of these papers. PSM avoids the dimensionality barrier normally associated with high-dimensionality modeling by using broadened quantile functions instead of frequency functions to represent the modulation of cellular epitopes as cells differentiate. Since modeling programs ultimately minimize or maximize one or more objective functions, they are particularly amenable to automation and, therefore, represent a viable alternative to subjective and inaccurate gating approaches.

  9. Probability distributions for magnetotellurics

    SciTech Connect

    Stodt, John A.

    1982-11-01

    Estimates of the magnetotelluric transfer functions can be viewed as ratios of two complex random variables. It is assumed that the numerator and denominator are governed approximately by a joint complex normal distribution. Under this assumption, probability distributions are obtained for the magnitude, squared magnitude, logarithm of the squared magnitude, and the phase of the estimates. Normal approximations to the distributions are obtained by calculating mean values and variances from error propagation, and the distributions are plotted with their normal approximations for different percentage errors in the numerator and denominator of the estimates, ranging from 10% to 75%. The distribution of the phase is approximated well by a normal distribution for the range of errors considered, while the distribution of the logarithm of the squared magnitude is approximated by a normal distribution for a much larger range of errors than is the distribution of the squared magnitude. The distribution of the squared magnitude is most sensitive to the presence of noise in the denominator of the estimate, in which case the true distribution deviates significantly from normal behavior as the percentage errors exceed 10%. In contrast, the normal approximation to the distribution of the logarithm of the magnitude is useful for errors as large as 75%.

  10. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  11. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  12. Coherent Assessment of Subjective Probability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-03-01

    known results of de Finetti (1937, 1972, 1974), Smith (1961), and Savage (1971) and some recent results of Lind- ley (1980) concerning the use of...provides the motivation for de Finettis definition of subjective probabilities as coherent bet prices. From the definition of the probability measure...subjective probability, the probability laws which are traditionally stated as axioms or definitions are obtained instead as theorems. (De Finetti F -7

  13. The Probability of Causal Conditionals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Over, David E.; Hadjichristidis, Constantinos; Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Handley, Simon J.; Sloman, Steven A.

    2007-01-01

    Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q [such that] p). We report three experiments on…

  14. Probabilities of transversions and transitions.

    PubMed

    Vol'kenshtein, M V

    1976-01-01

    The values of the mean relative probabilities of transversions and transitions have been refined on the basis of the data collected by Jukes and found to be equal to 0.34 and 0.66, respectively. Evolutionary factors increase the probability of transversions to 0.44. The relative probabilities of individual substitutions have been determined, and a detailed classification of the nonsense mutations has been given. Such mutations are especially probable in the UGG (Trp) codon. The highest probability of AG, GA transitions correlates with the lowest mean change in the hydrophobic nature of the amino acids coded.

  15. Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

  16. A holistic comparative analysis of diagnostic tests for urothelial carcinoma: a study of Cxbladder Detect, UroVysion® FISH, NMP22® and cytology based on imputation of multiple datasets.

    PubMed

    Breen, Vivienne; Kasabov, Nikola; Kamat, Ashish M; Jacobson, Elsie; Suttie, James M; O'Sullivan, Paul J; Kavalieris, Laimonis; Darling, David G

    2015-05-12

    Comparing the relative utility of diagnostic tests is challenging when available datasets are small, partial or incomplete. The analytical leverage associated with a large sample size can be gained by integrating several small datasets to enable effective and accurate across-dataset comparisons. Accordingly, we propose a methodology for a holistic comparative analysis and ranking of cancer diagnostic tests through dataset integration and imputation of missing values, using urothelial carcinoma (UC) as a case study. Five datasets comprising samples from 939 subjects, including 89 with UC, where up to four diagnostic tests (cytology, NMP22®, UroVysion® Fluorescence In-Situ Hybridization (FISH) and Cxbladder Detect) were integrated into a single dataset containing all measured records and missing values. The tests were firstly ranked using three criteria: sensitivity, specificity and a standard variable (feature) ranking method popularly known as signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) index derived from the mean values for all subjects clinically known to have UC versus healthy subjects. Secondly, step-wise unsupervised and supervised imputation (the latter accounting for the 'clinical truth' as determined by cystoscopy) was performed using personalized modelling, k-nearest-neighbour methods, multiple logistic regression and multilayer perceptron neural networks. All imputation models were cross-validated by comparing their post-imputation predictive accuracy for UC with their pre-imputation accuracy. Finally, the post-imputation tests were re-ranked using the same three criteria. In both measured and imputed data sets, Cxbladder Detect ranked higher for sensitivity, and urine cytology a higher specificity, when compared with other UC tests. Cxbladder Detect consistently ranked higher than FISH and all other tests when SNR analyses were performed on measured, unsupervised and supervised imputed datasets. Supervised imputation resulted in a smaller cross-validation error

  17. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  18. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-08-30

    probabilities into quantum mechanics, and some psychologists have argued that they have a role to play in accounting for errors in judgment [30]. But, in...Discussion The mechanisms underlying naive estimates of the probabilities of unique events are largely inaccessible to consciousness , but they...Can quantum probability provide a new direc- tion for cognitive modeling? Behavioral and Brain Sciences (in press). 31. Paolacci G, Chandler J

  19. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  20. PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

  1. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  2. Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  3. Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  4. Information Processing Using Quantum Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behera, Laxmidhar

    2006-11-01

    This paper presents an information processing paradigm that introduces collective response of multiple agents (computational units) while the level of intelligence associated with the information processing has been increased manifold. It is shown that if the potential field of the Schroedinger wave equation is modulated using a self-organized learning scheme, then the probability density function associated with the stochastic data is transferred to the probability amplitude function which is the response of the Schroedinger wave equation. This approach illustrates that information processing of data with stochastic behavior can be efficiently done using quantum probability instead of classical probability. The proposed scheme has been demonstrated through two applications: denoising and adaptive control.

  5. The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

    2004-01-01

    In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are <1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

  6. The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

    2004-01-01

    In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

  7. Capture probabilities for secondary resonances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malhotra, Renu

    1990-01-01

    A perturbed pendulum model is used to analyze secondary resonances, and it is shown that a self-similarity between secondary and primary resonances exists. Henrard's (1982) theory is used to obtain formulas for the capture probability into secondary resonances. The tidal evolution of Miranda and Umbriel is considered as an example, and significant probabilities of capture into secondary resonances are found.

  8. Training Teachers to Teach Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Batanero, Carmen; Godino, Juan D.; Roa, Rafael

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the reasons why the teaching of probability is difficult for mathematics teachers, describe the contents needed in the didactical preparation of teachers to teach probability and analyze some examples of activities to carry out this training. These activities take into account the experience at the University of Granada,…

  9. The Probabilities of Conditionals Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Douven, Igor; Verbrugge, Sara

    2013-01-01

    According to what is now commonly referred to as "the Equation" in the literature on indicative conditionals, the probability of any indicative conditional equals the probability of its consequent of the conditional given the antecedent of the conditional. Philosophers widely agree in their assessment that the triviality arguments of…

  10. Linear positivity and virtual probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartle, James B.

    2004-08-01

    We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics.

  11. Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

    PubMed Central

    Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

  12. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.

  13. Cluster membership probability: polarimetric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medhi, Biman J.; Tamura, Motohide

    2013-04-01

    Interstellar polarimetric data of the six open clusters Hogg 15, NGC 6611, NGC 5606, NGC 6231, NGC 5749 and NGC 6250 have been used to estimate the membership probability for the stars within them. For proper-motion member stars, the membership probability estimated using the polarimetric data is in good agreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. However, for proper-motion non-member stars, the membership probability estimated by the polarimetric method is in total disagreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. The inconsistencies in the determined memberships may be because of the fundamental differences between the two methods of determination: one is based on stellar proper motion in space and the other is based on selective extinction of the stellar output by the asymmetric aligned dust grains present in the interstellar medium. The results and analysis suggest that the scatter of the Stokes vectors q (per cent) and u (per cent) for the proper-motion member stars depends on the interstellar and intracluster differential reddening in the open cluster. It is found that this method could be used to estimate the cluster membership probability if we have additional polarimetric and photometric information for a star to identify it as a probable member/non-member of a particular cluster, such as the maximum wavelength value (λmax), the unit weight error of the fit (σ1), the dispersion in the polarimetric position angles (overline{ɛ }), reddening (E(B - V)) or the differential intracluster reddening (ΔE(B - V)). This method could also be used to estimate the membership probability of known member stars having no membership probability as well as to resolve disagreements about membership among different proper-motion surveys.

  14. Definition of the Neutrosophic Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smarandache, Florentin

    2014-03-01

    Neutrosophic probability (or likelihood) [1995] is a particular case of the neutrosophic measure. It is an estimation of an event (different from indeterminacy) to occur, together with an estimation that some indeterminacy may occur, and the estimation that the event does not occur. The classical probability deals with fair dice, coins, roulettes, spinners, decks of cards, random works, while neutrosophic probability deals with unfair, imperfect such objects and processes. For example, if we toss a regular die on an irregular surface which has cracks, then it is possible to get the die stuck on one of its edges or vertices in a crack (indeterminate outcome). The sample space is in this case: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, indeterminacy}. So, the probability of getting, for example 1, is less than 1/6. Since there are seven outcomes. The neutrosophic probability is a generalization of the classical probability because, when the chance of determinacy of a stochastic process is zero, these two probabilities coincide. The Neutrosophic Probability that of an event A occurs is NP (A) = (ch (A) , ch (indetA) , ch (A ̲)) = (T , I , F) , where T , I , F are subsets of [0,1], and T is the chance that A occurs, denoted ch(A); I is the indeterminate chance related to A, ch(indetermA) ; and F is the chance that A does not occur, ch (A ̲) . So, NP is a generalization of the Imprecise Probability as well. If T, I, and F are crisp numbers then: - 0 <= T + I + F <=3+ . We used the same notations (T,I,F) as in neutrosophic logic and set.

  15. Holographic probabilities in eternal inflation.

    PubMed

    Bousso, Raphael

    2006-11-10

    In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.

  16. On quantum vs. classical probability

    SciTech Connect

    Rau, Jochen

    2009-12-15

    Quantum theory shares with classical probability theory many important properties. I show that this common core regards at least the following six areas, and I provide details on each of these: the logic of propositions, symmetry, probabilities, composition of systems, state preparation and reductionism. The essential distinction between classical and quantum theory, on the other hand, is shown to be joint decidability versus smoothness; for the latter in particular I supply ample explanation and motivation. Finally, I argue that beyond quantum theory there are no other generalisations of classical probability theory that are relevant to physics.

  17. Holographic Probabilities in Eternal Inflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bousso, Raphael

    2006-11-01

    In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.

  18. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    PubMed

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction.

  19. Dinosaurs, Dinosaur Eggs, and Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Teppo, Anne R.; Hodgson, Ted

    2001-01-01

    Outlines several recommendations for teaching probability in the secondary school. Offers an activity that employs simulation by hand and using a programmable calculator in which geometry, analytical geometry, and discrete mathematics are explored. (KHR)

  20. Dinosaurs, Dinosaur Eggs, and Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Teppo, Anne R.; Hodgson, Ted

    2001-01-01

    Outlines several recommendations for teaching probability in the secondary school. Offers an activity that employs simulation by hand and using a programmable calculator in which geometry, analytical geometry, and discrete mathematics are explored. (KHR)

  1. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, J. Acacio

    2012-12-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  2. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    SciTech Connect

    Acacio de Barros, J.

    2012-12-18

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  3. Tiempo para un cambio

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woltjer, L.

    1987-06-01

    En la reunion celebrada en diciembre dei ano pasado informe al Consejo de mi deseo de terminar mi contrato como Director General de la ESO una vez que fuera aprobado el proyecto dei VLT, que se espera sucedera hacia fines de este aAo. Cuando fue renovada mi designacion hace tres aAos, el Consejo conocia mi intencion de no completar los cinco aAos dei contrato debido a mi deseo de disponer de mas tiempo para otras actividades. Ahora, una vez terminada la fase preparatoria para el VLT, Y habiendose presentado el proyecto formalmente al Consejo el dia 31 de marzo, y esperando su muy probable aprobacion antes dei termino de este ano, me parece que el 10 de enero de 1988 presenta una excelente fecha para que se produzca un cambio en la administracion de la ESO.

  4. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    PubMed

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods.

  5. Detonation probabilities of high explosives

    SciTech Connect

    Eisenhawer, S.W.; Bott, T.F.; Bement, T.R.

    1995-07-01

    The probability of a high explosive violent reaction (HEVR) following various events is an extremely important aspect of estimating accident-sequence frequency for nuclear weapons dismantlement. In this paper, we describe the development of response curves for insults to PBX 9404, a conventional high-performance explosive used in US weapons. The insults during dismantlement include drops of high explosive (HE), strikes of tools and components on HE, and abrasion of the explosive. In the case of drops, we combine available test data on HEVRs and the results of flooring certification tests to estimate the HEVR probability. For other insults, it was necessary to use expert opinion. We describe the expert solicitation process and the methods used to consolidate the responses. The HEVR probabilities obtained from both approaches are compared.

  6. Incompatible Stochastic Processes and Complex Probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    1997-01-01

    The definition of conditional probabilities is based upon the existence of a joint probability. However, a reconstruction of the joint probability from given conditional probabilities imposes certain constraints upon the latter, so that if several conditional probabilities are chosen arbitrarily, the corresponding joint probability may not exist.

  7. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, G. D.; Zucker, L. J.

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  8. Interference of probabilities in dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Zak, Michail

    2014-08-15

    A new class of dynamical systems with a preset type of interference of probabilities is introduced. It is obtained from the extension of the Madelung equation by replacing the quantum potential with a specially selected feedback from the Liouville equation. It has been proved that these systems are different from both Newtonian and quantum systems, but they can be useful for modeling spontaneous collective novelty phenomena when emerging outputs are qualitatively different from the weighted sum of individual inputs. Formation of language and fast decision-making process as potential applications of the probability interference is discussed.

  9. Fact Sheet: N-Methylpyrrolidone (NMP)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's existing chemicals programs address pollution prevention, risk assessment, hazard and exposure assessment and/or characterization, and risk management for chemicals substances in commercial use.

  10. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  11. Risk estimation using probability machines

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  12. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  13. Children's Understanding of Posterior Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Girotto, Vittorio; Gonzalez, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Do young children have a basic intuition of posterior probability? Do they update their decisions and judgments in the light of new evidence? We hypothesized that they can do so extensionally, by considering and counting the various ways in which an event may or may not occur. The results reported in this paper showed that from the age of five,…

  14. Comments on quantum probability theory.

    PubMed

    Sloman, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Quantum probability theory (QP) is the best formal representation available of the most common form of judgment involving attribute comparison (inside judgment). People are capable, however, of judgments that involve proportions over sets of instances (outside judgment). Here, the theory does not do so well. I discuss the theory both in terms of descriptive adequacy and normative appropriateness.

  15. Probability Simulation in Middle School.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lappan, Glenda; Winter, M. J.

    1980-01-01

    Two simulations designed to teach probability to middle-school age pupils are presented. The first simulates the one-on-one foul shot simulation in basketball; the second deals with collecting a set of six cereal box prizes by buying boxes containing one toy each. (MP)

  16. Children's Understanding of Posterior Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Girotto, Vittorio; Gonzalez, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Do young children have a basic intuition of posterior probability? Do they update their decisions and judgments in the light of new evidence? We hypothesized that they can do so extensionally, by considering and counting the various ways in which an event may or may not occur. The results reported in this paper showed that from the age of five,…

  17. Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pfeiffer, Paul E.

    This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…

  18. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  19. On probability-possibility transformations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

    1992-01-01

    Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

  20. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  1. Probability surveys, conditional probability, and ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Paul, John F; Munns, Wayne R

    2011-06-01

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over broad geographic areas. Under certain conditions (including appropriate stratification of the sampled population, sufficient density of samples, and sufficient range of exposure levels paired with concurrent response values), this empirical approach provides estimates of risk using extant field-derived monitoring data. The monitoring data were used to prescribe the exposure field and to model the exposure-response relationship. We illustrate this approach by estimating risks to benthic communities from low dissolved oxygen (DO) in freshwater streams of the mid-Atlantic region and in estuaries of the Virginian Biogeographical Province of the United States. In both cases, the estimates of risk are consistent with the U.S. EPA's ambient water quality criteria for DO. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

  2. Time-dependent earthquake probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomberg, J.; Belardinelli, M. E.; Cocco, M.; Reasenberg, P.

    2005-05-01

    We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large earthquake, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have developed a general framework based on a simple, generalized rate change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity rate changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failure of a single fault. In the first application, the notion of failure rate corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function or PDF) that describes some population of potential recurrence times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past earthquakes have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in recurrence times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models.

  3. Time-dependent earthquake probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Belardinelli, M.E.; Cocco, M.; Reasenberg, P.

    2005-01-01

    We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large earthquake, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have loading as in the framework based on a simple, generalized rate change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity rate changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failures of different members of a the notion of failure rate corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function of PDF) that describes some population of potential recurrence times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past earthquakes have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in recurrence times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. Understanding Y haplotype matching probability.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Charles H

    2014-01-01

    The Y haplotype population-genetic terrain is better explored from a fresh perspective rather than by analogy with the more familiar autosomal ideas. For haplotype matching probabilities, versus for autosomal matching probabilities, explicit attention to modelling - such as how evolution got us where we are - is much more important while consideration of population frequency is much less so. This paper explores, extends, and explains some of the concepts of "Fundamental problem of forensic mathematics - the evidential strength of a rare haplotype match". That earlier paper presented and validated a "kappa method" formula for the evidential strength when a suspect matches a previously unseen haplotype (such as a Y-haplotype) at the crime scene. Mathematical implications of the kappa method are intuitive and reasonable. Suspicions to the contrary raised in rest on elementary errors. Critical to deriving the kappa method or any sensible evidential calculation is understanding that thinking about haplotype population frequency is a red herring; the pivotal question is one of matching probability. But confusion between the two is unfortunately institutionalized in much of the forensic world. Examples make clear why (matching) probability is not (population) frequency and why uncertainty intervals on matching probabilities are merely confused thinking. Forensic matching calculations should be based on a model, on stipulated premises. The model inevitably only approximates reality, and any error in the results comes only from error in the model, the inexactness of the approximation. Sampling variation does not measure that inexactness and hence is not helpful in explaining evidence and is in fact an impediment. Alternative haplotype matching probability approaches that various authors have considered are reviewed. Some are based on no model and cannot be taken seriously. For the others, some evaluation of the models is discussed. Recent evidence supports the adequacy of

  5. Probability distributions for multimeric systems.

    PubMed

    Albert, Jaroslav; Rooman, Marianne

    2016-01-01

    We propose a fast and accurate method of obtaining the equilibrium mono-modal joint probability distributions for multimeric systems. The method necessitates only two assumptions: the copy number of all species of molecule may be treated as continuous; and, the probability density functions (pdf) are well-approximated by multivariate skew normal distributions (MSND). Starting from the master equation, we convert the problem into a set of equations for the statistical moments which are then expressed in terms of the parameters intrinsic to the MSND. Using an optimization package on Mathematica, we minimize a Euclidian distance function comprising of a sum of the squared difference between the left and the right hand sides of these equations. Comparison of results obtained via our method with those rendered by the Gillespie algorithm demonstrates our method to be highly accurate as well as efficient.

  6. Probability summation--a critique.

    PubMed

    Laming, Donald

    2013-03-01

    This Discussion Paper seeks to kill off probability summation, specifically the high-threshold assumption, as an explanatory idea in visual science. In combination with a Weibull function of a parameter of about 4, probability summation can accommodate, to within the limits of experimental error, the shape of the detectability function for contrast, the reduction in threshold that results from the combination of widely separated grating components, summation with respect to duration at threshold, and some instances, but not all, of spatial summation. But it has repeated difficulty with stimuli below threshold, because it denies the availability of input from such stimuli. All the phenomena listed above, and many more, can be accommodated equally accurately by signal-detection theory combined with an accelerated nonlinear transform of small, near-threshold, contrasts. This is illustrated with a transform that is the fourth power for the smallest contrasts, but tends to linear above threshold. Moreover, this particular transform can be derived from elementary properties of sensory neurons. Probability summation cannot be regarded as a special case of a more general theory, because it depends essentially on the 19th-century notion of a high fixed threshold. It is simply an obstruction to further progress.

  7. Objective Probability and Quantum Fuzziness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohrhoff, U.

    2009-02-01

    This paper offers a critique of the Bayesian interpretation of quantum mechanics with particular focus on a paper by Caves, Fuchs, and Schack containing a critique of the “objective preparations view” or OPV. It also aims to carry the discussion beyond the hardened positions of Bayesians and proponents of the OPV. Several claims made by Caves et al. are rebutted, including the claim that different pure states may legitimately be assigned to the same system at the same time, and the claim that the quantum nature of a preparation device cannot legitimately be ignored. Both Bayesians and proponents of the OPV regard the time dependence of a quantum state as the continuous dependence on time of an evolving state of some kind. This leads to a false dilemma: quantum states are either objective states of nature or subjective states of belief. In reality they are neither. The present paper views the aforesaid dependence as a dependence on the time of the measurement to whose possible outcomes the quantum state serves to assign probabilities. This makes it possible to recognize the full implications of the only testable feature of the theory, viz., the probabilities it assigns to measurement outcomes. Most important among these are the objective fuzziness of all relative positions and momenta and the consequent incomplete spatiotemporal differentiation of the physical world. The latter makes it possible to draw a clear distinction between the macroscopic and the microscopic. This in turn makes it possible to understand the special status of measurements in all standard formulations of the theory. Whereas Bayesians have written contemptuously about the “folly” of conjoining “objective” to “probability,” there are various reasons why quantum-mechanical probabilities can be considered objective, not least the fact that they are needed to quantify an objective fuzziness. But this cannot be appreciated without giving thought to the makeup of the world, which

  8. Empirical and Computational Tsunami Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.; ten Brink, U. S.; Lee, H. J.

    2008-12-01

    A key component in assessing the hazard posed by tsunamis is quantification of tsunami likelihood or probability. To determine tsunami probability, one needs to know the distribution of tsunami sizes and the distribution of inter-event times. Both empirical and computational methods can be used to determine these distributions. Empirical methods rely on an extensive tsunami catalog and hence, the historical data must be carefully analyzed to determine whether the catalog is complete for a given runup or wave height range. Where site-specific historical records are sparse, spatial binning techniques can be used to perform a regional, empirical analysis. Global and site-specific tsunami catalogs suggest that tsunami sizes are distributed according to a truncated or tapered power law and inter-event times are distributed according to an exponential distribution modified to account for clustering of events in time. Computational methods closely follow Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), where size and inter-event distributions are determined for tsunami sources, rather than tsunamis themselves as with empirical analysis. In comparison to PSHA, a critical difference in the computational approach to tsunami probabilities is the need to account for far-field sources. The three basic steps in computational analysis are (1) determination of parameter space for all potential sources (earthquakes, landslides, etc.), including size and inter-event distributions; (2) calculation of wave heights or runup at coastal locations, typically performed using numerical propagation models; and (3) aggregation of probabilities from all sources and incorporation of uncertainty. It is convenient to classify two different types of uncertainty: epistemic (or knowledge-based) and aleatory (or natural variability). Correspondingly, different methods have been traditionally used to incorporate uncertainty during aggregation, including logic trees and direct integration. Critical

  9. [Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

    PubMed

    Dinya, E

    1998-04-26

    The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

  10. Probability for Weather and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  11. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clausen, Drew R.; Piro, Anthony; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-01-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. Using the observed BH mass distribution from Galactic X-ray binaries, we investigate the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass. Although the shape of the black hole formation probability function is poorly constrained by current measurements, we believe that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. We also consider some of the implications of this probability distribution, from its impact on the chemical enrichment from massive stars, to its connection with the structure of the core at the time of collapse, to the birth kicks that black holes receive. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be a useful input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  12. Probability of Detection Demonstration Transferability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, Bradford H.

    2008-01-01

    The ongoing Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Propellant Tank Penetrant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Probability of Detection (POD) Assessment (NESC activity) has surfaced several issues associated with liquid penetrant POD demonstration testing. This presentation lists factors that may influence the transferability of POD demonstration tests. Initial testing will address the liquid penetrant inspection technique. Some of the factors to be considered in this task are crack aspect ratio, the extent of the crack opening, the material and the distance between the inspection surface and the inspector's eye.

  13. Modality, probability, and mental models.

    PubMed

    Hinterecker, Thomas; Knauff, Markus; Johnson-Laird, P N

    2016-10-01

    We report 3 experiments investigating novel sorts of inference, such as: A or B or both. Therefore, possibly (A and B). Where the contents were sensible assertions, for example, Space tourism will achieve widespread popularity in the next 50 years or advances in material science will lead to the development of antigravity materials in the next 50 years, or both. Most participants accepted the inferences as valid, though they are invalid in modal logic and in probabilistic logic too. But, the theory of mental models predicts that individuals should accept them. In contrast, inferences of this sort—A or B but not both. Therefore, A or B or both—are both logically valid and probabilistically valid. Yet, as the model theory also predicts, most reasoners rejected them. The participants’ estimates of probabilities showed that their inferences tended not to be based on probabilistic validity, but that they did rate acceptable conclusions as more probable than unacceptable conclusions. We discuss the implications of the results for current theories of reasoning.

  14. Network of sensors: acquisition probability.

    PubMed

    Arnon, Shlomi

    2007-09-01

    A network of sensors is considered one of the most attractive remote sensing technologies available at present. In the system under consideration a network of sensors and a remote base station communicate using optical wireless links. This is accomplished by a base station that acquires and identifies sensors using a unique subcarrier frequency. The sensors use an active retroreflector to communicate with the base station, which reduces the complexity, cost, and power consumption of the sensors. The base station employs an imaging receiver (detector matrix), in which signals arriving from different directions are detected by different pixels. The imaging receiver mitigates ambient light noise and interference between simultaneous uplink transmissions from different sensors, provided that the transmissions are imaged onto disjoint sets of pixels. We describe a scheme that allows simultaneous acquisition and identification of a sensor in a network by an imaging receiver. A probability model of erroneous acquisition of this scheme due to noise is derived. The model's results indicate that the matrix size, the signal, and the noise powers have the greatest influence in determining acquisition probability.

  15. Lectures on probability and statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another.

  16. MSPI False Indication Probability Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Dana Kelly; Kurt Vedros; Robert Youngblood

    2011-03-01

    This paper examines false indication probabilities in the context of the Mitigating System Performance Index (MSPI), in order to investigate the pros and cons of different approaches to resolving two coupled issues: (1) sensitivity to the prior distribution used in calculating the Bayesian-corrected unreliability contribution to the MSPI, and (2) whether (in a particular plant configuration) to model the fuel oil transfer pump (FOTP) as a separate component, or integrally to its emergency diesel generator (EDG). False indication probabilities were calculated for the following situations: (1) all component reliability parameters at their baseline values, so that the true indication is green, meaning that an indication of white or above would be false positive; (2) one or more components degraded to the extent that the true indication would be (mid) white, and “false” would be green (negative) or yellow (negative) or red (negative). In key respects, this was the approach taken in NUREG-1753. The prior distributions examined were the constrained noninformative (CNI) prior used currently by the MSPI, a mixture of conjugate priors, the Jeffreys noninformative prior, a nonconjugate log(istic)-normal prior, and the minimally informative prior investigated in (Kelly et al., 2010). The mid-white performance state was set at ?CDF = ?10 ? 10-6/yr. For each simulated time history, a check is made of whether the calculated ?CDF is above or below 10-6/yr. If the parameters were at their baseline values, and ?CDF > 10-6/yr, this is counted as a false positive. Conversely, if one or all of the parameters are set to values corresponding to ?CDF > 10-6/yr but that time history’s ?CDF < 10-6/yr, this is counted as a false negative indication. The false indication (positive or negative) probability is then estimated as the number of false positive or negative counts divided by the number of time histories (100,000). Results are presented for a set of base case parameter values

  17. Associativity and normative credal probability.

    PubMed

    Snow, P

    2002-01-01

    Cox's Theorem is a widely cited motivation for probabilistic models of uncertain belief. The theorem relates the associativity of the logical connectives to that of the arithmetic operations of probability. Recent questions about the correctness of Cox's Theorem have been resolved, but there are new questions about one functional equation used by Cox in 1946. This equation is missing from his later work. Advances in knowledge since 1946 and changes in Cox's research interests explain the equation's disappearance. Other associativity-based motivations avoid functional equations altogether, and so may be more transparently applied to finite domains and discrete beliefs. A discrete counterpart of Cox's Theorem can be assembled from results that have been in the literature since 1959.

  18. WITPO (What Is the Probability Of).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ericksen, Donna Bird; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Included in this probability board game are the requirements, the rules, the board, and 44 sample questions. This game can be used as a probability unit review for practice on basic skills and algorithms, such as computing compound probability and using Pascal's triangle to solve binomial probability problems. (JJK)

  19. Fusion probability in heavy nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Tathagata; Nath, S.; Pal, Santanu

    2015-03-01

    Background: Fusion between two massive nuclei is a very complex process and is characterized by three stages: (a) capture inside the potential barrier, (b) formation of an equilibrated compound nucleus (CN), and (c) statistical decay of the CN leading to a cold evaporation residue (ER) or fission. The second stage is the least understood of the three and is the most crucial in predicting yield of superheavy elements (SHE) formed in complete fusion reactions. Purpose: A systematic study of average fusion probability, , is undertaken to obtain a better understanding of its dependence on various reaction parameters. The study may also help to clearly demarcate onset of non-CN fission (NCNF), which causes fusion probability, PCN, to deviate from unity. Method: ER excitation functions for 52 reactions leading to CN in the mass region 170-220, which are available in the literature, have been compared with statistical model (SM) calculations. Capture cross sections have been obtained from a coupled-channels code. In the SM, shell corrections in both the level density and the fission barrier have been included. for these reactions has been extracted by comparing experimental and theoretical ER excitation functions in the energy range ˜5 %-35% above the potential barrier, where known effects of nuclear structure are insignificant. Results: has been shown to vary with entrance channel mass asymmetry, η (or charge product, ZpZt ), as well as with fissility of the CN, χCN. No parameter has been found to be adequate as a single scaling variable to determine . Approximate boundaries have been obtained from where starts deviating from unity. Conclusions: This study quite clearly reveals the limits of applicability of the SM in interpreting experimental observables from fusion reactions involving two massive nuclei. Deviation of from unity marks the beginning of the domain of dynamical models of fusion. Availability of precise ER cross

  20. Trajectory versus probability density entropy.

    PubMed

    Bologna, M; Grigolini, P; Karagiorgis, M; Rosa, A

    2001-07-01

    We show that the widely accepted conviction that a connection can be established between the probability density entropy and the Kolmogorov-Sinai (KS) entropy is questionable. We adopt the definition of density entropy as a functional of a distribution density whose time evolution is determined by a transport equation, conceived as the only prescription to use for the calculation. Although the transport equation is built up for the purpose of affording a picture equivalent to that stemming from trajectory dynamics, no direct use of trajectory time evolution is allowed, once the transport equation is defined. With this definition in mind we prove that the detection of a time regime of increase of the density entropy with a rate identical to the KS entropy is possible only in a limited number of cases. The proposals made by some authors to establish a connection between the two entropies in general, violate our definition of density entropy and imply the concept of trajectory, which is foreign to that of density entropy.

  1. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    SciTech Connect

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  2. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  3. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  4. Teaching Probabilities and Statistics to Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pange, Jenny

    2003-01-01

    This study considers the teaching of probabilities and statistics to a group of preschool children using traditional classroom activities and Internet games. It was clear from this study that children can show a high level of understanding of probabilities and statistics, and demonstrate high performance in probability games. The use of Internet…

  5. The Cognitive Substrate of Subjective Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nilsson, Hakan; Olsson, Henrik; Juslin, Peter

    2005-01-01

    The prominent cognitive theories of probability judgment were primarily developed to explain cognitive biases rather than to account for the cognitive processes in probability judgment. In this article the authors compare 3 major theories of the processes and representations in probability judgment: the representativeness heuristic, implemented as…

  6. Illustrating Basic Probability Calculations Using "Craps"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Roger W.

    2006-01-01

    Instructors may use the gambling game of craps to illustrate the use of a number of fundamental probability identities. For the "pass-line" bet we focus on the chance of winning and the expected game length. To compute these, probabilities of unions of disjoint events, probabilities of intersections of independent events, conditional probabilities…

  7. Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    López Puga, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

  8. The trajectory of the target probability effect.

    PubMed

    Hon, Nicholas; Yap, Melvin J; Jabar, Syaheed B

    2013-05-01

    The effect of target probability on detection times is well-established: Even when detection accuracy is high, lower probability targets are detected more slowly than higher probability ones. Although this target probability effect on detection times has been well-studied, one aspect of it has remained largely unexamined: How the effect develops over the span of an experiment. Here, we investigated this issue with two detection experiments that assessed different target probability ratios. Conventional block segment analysis and linear mixed-effects modeling converged on two key findings. First, we found that the magnitude of the target probability effect increases as one progresses through a block of trials. Second, we found, by examining the trajectories of the low- and high-probability targets, that this increase in effect magnitude was driven by the low-probability targets. Specifically, we found that low-probability targets were detected more slowly as a block of trials progressed. Performance to high-probability targets, on the other hand, was largely invariant across the block. The latter finding is of particular interest because it cannot be reconciled with accounts that propose that the target probability effect is driven by the high-probability targets.

  9. Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    López Puga, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

  10. Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Odafe, Victor U.

    2011-01-01

    Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

  11. Calibrating Subjective Probabilities Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merkle, Edgar C.

    A body of psychological research has examined the correspondence between a judge's subjective probability of an event's outcome and the event's actual outcome. The research generally shows that subjective probabilities are noisy and do not match the "true" probabilities. However, subjective probabilities are still useful for forecasting purposes if they bear some relationship to true probabilities. The purpose of the current research is to exploit relationships between subjective probabilities and outcomes to create improved, model-based probabilities for forecasting. Once the model has been trained in situations where the outcome is known, it can then be used in forecasting situations where the outcome is unknown. These concepts are demonstrated using experimental psychology data, and potential applications are discussed.

  12. The uncertainty in earthquake conditional probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.

    1992-01-01

    The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) questioned the relevance of uncertainty intervals assigned to earthquake conditional probabilities on the basis that the uncertainty in the probability estimate seemed to be greater the smaller the intrinsic breadth of the recurrence-interval distribution. It is shown here that this paradox depends upon a faulty measure of uncertainty in the conditional probability and that with a proper measure of uncertainty no paradox exists. The assertion that the WGCEP probability assessment in 1988 correctly forecast the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake is also challenged by showing that posterior probability of rupture inferred after the occurrence of the earthquake from the prior WGCEP probability distribution reverts to a nearly informationless distribution. -Author

  13. Bell Could Become the Copernicus of Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2016-07-01

    Our aim is to emphasize the role of mathematical models in physics, especially models of geometry and probability. We briefly compare developments of geometry and probability by pointing to similarities and differences: from Euclid to Lobachevsky and from Kolmogorov to Bell. In probability, Bell could play the same role as Lobachevsky in geometry. In fact, violation of Bell’s inequality can be treated as implying the impossibility to apply the classical probability model of Kolmogorov (1933) to quantum phenomena. Thus the quantum probabilistic model (based on Born’s rule) can be considered as the concrete example of the non-Kolmogorovian model of probability, similarly to the Lobachevskian model — the first example of the non-Euclidean model of geometry. This is the “probability model” interpretation of the violation of Bell’s inequality. We also criticize the standard interpretation—an attempt to add to rigorous mathematical probability models additional elements such as (non)locality and (un)realism. Finally, we compare embeddings of non-Euclidean geometries into the Euclidean space with embeddings of the non-Kolmogorovian probabilities (in particular, quantum probability) into the Kolmogorov probability space. As an example, we consider the CHSH-test.

  14. Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kracklauer, A. F.

    2007-12-01

    Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a few details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.

  15. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) Probability Wheel

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

    2016-01-01

    A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an “investigator” and a “participant,” about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences. PMID:28105462

  16. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

    A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

  17. Error probability performance of unbalanced QPSK receivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, M. K.

    1978-01-01

    A simple technique for calculating the error probability performance and associated noisy reference loss of practical unbalanced QPSK receivers is presented. The approach is based on expanding the error probability conditioned on the loop phase error in a power series in the loop phase error and then, keeping only the first few terms of this series, averaging this conditional error probability over the probability density function of the loop phase error. Doing so results in an expression for the average error probability which is in the form of a leading term representing the ideal (perfect synchronization references) performance plus a term proportional to the mean-squared crosstalk. Thus, the additional error probability due to noisy synchronization references occurs as an additive term proportional to the mean-squared phase jitter directly associated with the receiver's tracking loop. Similar arguments are advanced to give closed-form results for the noisy reference loss itself.

  18. Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

    SciTech Connect

    Kracklauer, A. F.

    2007-12-03

    Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a few details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.

  19. Location probability learning requires focal attention.

    PubMed

    Kabata, Takashi; Yokoyama, Takemasa; Noguchi, Yasuki; Kita, Shinichi

    2014-01-01

    Target identification is related to the frequency with which targets appear at a given location, with greater frequency enhancing identification. This phenomenon suggests that location probability learned through repeated experience with the target modulates cognitive processing. However, it remains unclear whether attentive processing of the target is required to learn location probability. Here, we used a dual-task paradigm to test the location probability effect of attended and unattended stimuli. Observers performed an attentionally demanding central-letter task and a peripheral-bar discrimination task in which location probability was manipulated. Thus, we were able to compare performance on the peripheral task when attention was fully engaged to the target (single-task condition) versus when attentional resources were drawn away by the central task (dual-task condition). The location probability effect occurred only in the single-task condition, when attention resources were fully available. This suggests that location probability learning requires attention to the target stimuli.

  20. Experience matters: information acquisition optimizes probability gain.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Jonathan D; McKenzie, Craig R M; Cottrell, Garrison W; Sejnowski, Terrence J

    2010-07-01

    Deciding which piece of information to acquire or attend to is fundamental to perception, categorization, medical diagnosis, and scientific inference. Four statistical theories of the value of information-information gain, Kullback-Liebler distance, probability gain (error minimization), and impact-are equally consistent with extant data on human information acquisition. Three experiments, designed via computer optimization to be maximally informative, tested which of these theories best describes human information search. Experiment 1, which used natural sampling and experience-based learning to convey environmental probabilities, found that probability gain explained subjects' information search better than the other statistical theories or the probability-of-certainty heuristic. Experiments 1 and 2 found that subjects behaved differently when the standard method of verbally presented summary statistics (rather than experience-based learning) was used to convey environmental probabilities. Experiment 3 found that subjects' preference for probability gain is robust, suggesting that the other models contribute little to subjects' search behavior.

  1. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) Probability Wheel.

    PubMed

    Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K

    2016-01-01

    A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant," about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

  2. Derivation of quantum probability from measurement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herbut, Fedor

    2016-05-01

    To begin with, it is pointed out that the form of the quantum probability formula originates in the very initial state of the object system as seen when the state is expanded with the eigenprojectors of the measured observable. Making use of the probability reproducibility condition, which is a key concept in unitary measurement theory, one obtains the relevant coherent distribution of the complete-measurement results in the final unitary-measurement state in agreement with the mentioned probability formula. Treating the transition from the final unitary, or premeasurement, state, where all possible results are present, to one complete-measurement result sketchily in the usual way, the well-known probability formula is derived. In conclusion it is pointed out that the entire argument is only formal unless one makes it physical assuming that the quantum probability law is valid in the extreme case of probability-one (certain) events (projectors).

  3. Total variation denoising of probability measures using iterated function systems with probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Torre, Davide; Mendivil, Franklin; Vrscay, Edward R.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we present a total variation denoising problem for probability measures using the set of fixed point probability measures of iterated function systems with probabilities IFSP. By means of the Collage Theorem for contraction mappings, we provide an upper bound for this problem that can be solved by determining a set of probabilities.

  4. The Foundations of Probability and Mathematical Statistics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-03-01

    Lipschutz , Theory and Problems of Probability, Schaum*s Outline Series, McGraw Hill, New York, 1968, Chapters 1 and 3. Emanuel Parzen, Modern...Wesley, 1970, Chapter 3. Seymour Lipschutz , Theory and Problems of Probability, Schaum1s Outline Series, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1968, Chapter 4...Addison-Wesley, 1970, Chapter 4. Seymour Lipschutz , Theory and Problems of Probability, Schaum’s Outline Series, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1968, Chapter

  5. Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2011-03-01

    A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (0<α<1 and w(0)=1,w(1e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

  6. Laboratory-Tutorial Activities for Teaching Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wittmann, Michael C.; Morgan, Jeffrey T.; Feeley, Roger E.

    2006-01-01

    We report on the development of students' ideas of probability and probability density in a University of Maine laboratory-based general education physics course called "Intuitive Quantum Physics". Students in the course are generally math phobic with unfavorable expectations about the nature of physics and their ability to do it. We…

  7. Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

    2007-01-01

    Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

  8. Probability Simulations by Non-Lipschitz Chaos

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices. Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  9. Average Transmission Probability of a Random Stack

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Yin; Miniatura, Christian; Englert, Berthold-Georg

    2010-01-01

    The transmission through a stack of identical slabs that are separated by gaps with random widths is usually treated by calculating the average of the logarithm of the transmission probability. We show how to calculate the average of the transmission probability itself with the aid of a recurrence relation and derive analytical upper and lower…

  10. Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

    2007-01-01

    Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

  11. Simplicity and probability in causal explanation.

    PubMed

    Lombrozo, Tania

    2007-11-01

    What makes some explanations better than others? This paper explores the roles of simplicity and probability in evaluating competing causal explanations. Four experiments investigate the hypothesis that simpler explanations are judged both better and more likely to be true. In all experiments, simplicity is quantified as the number of causes invoked in an explanation, with fewer causes corresponding to a simpler explanation. Experiment 1 confirms that all else being equal, both simpler and more probable explanations are preferred. Experiments 2 and 3 examine how explanations are evaluated when simplicity and probability compete. The data suggest that simpler explanations are assigned a higher prior probability, with the consequence that disproportionate probabilistic evidence is required before a complex explanation will be favored over a simpler alternative. Moreover, committing to a simple but unlikely explanation can lead to systematic overestimation of the prevalence of the cause invoked in the simple explanation. Finally, Experiment 4 finds that the preference for simpler explanations can be overcome when probability information unambiguously supports a complex explanation over a simpler alternative. Collectively, these findings suggest that simplicity is used as a basis for evaluating explanations and for assigning prior probabilities when unambiguous probability information is absent. More broadly, evaluating explanations may operate as a mechanism for generating estimates of subjective probability.

  12. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be computed to no less than...

  13. Laboratory-Tutorial Activities for Teaching Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wittmann, Michael C.; Morgan, Jeffrey T.; Feeley, Roger E.

    2006-01-01

    We report on the development of students' ideas of probability and probability density in a University of Maine laboratory-based general education physics course called "Intuitive Quantum Physics". Students in the course are generally math phobic with unfavorable expectations about the nature of physics and their ability to do it. We…

  14. Phonotactic Probabilities in Young Children's Speech Production

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zamuner, Tania S.; Gerken, Louann; Hammond, Michael

    2004-01-01

    This research explores the role of phonotactic probability in two-year-olds' production of coda consonants. Twenty-nine children were asked to repeat CVC non-words that were used as labels for pictures of imaginary animals. The CVC non-words were controlled for their phonotactic probabilities, neighbourhood densities, word-likelihood ratings, and…

  15. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Grants by Random Selection Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All...

  16. Phonotactic Probabilities in Young Children's Speech Production

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zamuner, Tania S.; Gerken, Louann; Hammond, Michael

    2004-01-01

    This research explores the role of phonotactic probability in two-year-olds' production of coda consonants. Twenty-nine children were asked to repeat CVC non-words that were used as labels for pictures of imaginary animals. The CVC non-words were controlled for their phonotactic probabilities, neighbourhood densities, word-likelihood ratings, and…

  17. Teaching Probability: A Socio-Constructivist Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Sashi

    2015-01-01

    There is a considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions in probability. However, less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. This paper offers a sequence, grounded in socio-constructivist perspective for teaching probability.

  18. Stimulus Probability Effects in Absolute Identification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of…

  19. WPE: A Mathematical Microworld for Learning Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kiew, Su Ding; Sam, Hong Kian

    2006-01-01

    In this study, the researchers developed the Web-based Probability Explorer (WPE), a mathematical microworld and investigated the effectiveness of the microworld's constructivist learning environment in enhancing the learning of probability and improving students' attitudes toward mathematics. This study also determined the students' satisfaction…

  20. Malawian Students' Meanings for Probability Vocabulary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kazima, Mercy

    2007-01-01

    The paper discusses findings of a study that investigated Malawian students' meanings for some probability vocabulary. The study explores the meanings that, prior to instruction, students assign to some words that are commonly used in teaching probability. The aim is to have some insight into the meanings that students bring to the classroom. The…

  1. Correlation as Probability of Common Descent.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Ruma; Well, Arnold D.

    1996-01-01

    One interpretation of the Pearson product-moment correlation ("r"), correlation as the probability of originating from common descent, important to the genetic measurement of inbreeding, is examined. The conditions under which "r" can be interpreted as the probability of "identity by descent" are specified, and the…

  2. Probability: A Matter of Life and Death

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence

    2016-01-01

    Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…

  3. Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, M.

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  4. Teaching Statistics and Probability: 1981 Yearbook.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shulte, Albert P., Ed.; Smart, James R., Ed.

    This 1981 yearbook of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) offers classroom ideas for teaching statistics and probability, viewed as important topics in the school mathematics curriculum. Statistics and probability are seen as appropriate because they: (1) provide meaningful applications of mathematics at all levels; (2) provide…

  5. Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, M.

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  6. Average Transmission Probability of a Random Stack

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Yin; Miniatura, Christian; Englert, Berthold-Georg

    2010-01-01

    The transmission through a stack of identical slabs that are separated by gaps with random widths is usually treated by calculating the average of the logarithm of the transmission probability. We show how to calculate the average of the transmission probability itself with the aid of a recurrence relation and derive analytical upper and lower…

  7. Teaching Probability: A Socio-Constructivist Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Sashi

    2015-01-01

    There is a considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions in probability. However, less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. This paper offers a sequence, grounded in socio-constructivist perspective for teaching probability.

  8. Probability: A Matter of Life and Death

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence

    2016-01-01

    Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…

  9. Stimulus Probability Effects in Absolute Identification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of…

  10. Alternative probability theories for cognitive psychology.

    PubMed

    Narens, Louis

    2014-01-01

    Various proposals for generalizing event spaces for probability functions have been put forth in the mathematical, scientific, and philosophic literatures. In cognitive psychology such generalizations are used for explaining puzzling results in decision theory and for modeling the influence of context effects. This commentary discusses proposals for generalizing probability theory to event spaces that are not necessarily boolean algebras. Two prominent examples are quantum probability theory, which is based on the set of closed subspaces of a Hilbert space, and topological probability theory, which is based on the set of open sets of a topology. Both have been applied to a variety of cognitive situations. This commentary focuses on how event space properties can influence probability concepts and impact cognitive modeling.

  11. Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koshti, Ajay M.

    2017-01-01

    Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

  12. Assessment of the probability of contaminating Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Judd, B. R.; North, D. W.; Pezier, J. P.

    1974-01-01

    New methodology is proposed to assess the probability that the planet Mars will by biologically contaminated by terrestrial microorganisms aboard a spacecraft. Present NASA methods are based on the Sagan-Coleman formula, which states that the probability of contamination is the product of the expected microbial release and a probability of growth. The proposed new methodology extends the Sagan-Coleman approach to permit utilization of detailed information on microbial characteristics, the lethality of release and transport mechanisms, and of other information about the Martian environment. Three different types of microbial release are distinguished in the model for assessing the probability of contamination. The number of viable microbes released by each mechanism depends on the bio-burden in various locations on the spacecraft and on whether the spacecraft landing is accomplished according to plan. For each of the three release mechanisms a probability of growth is computed, using a model for transport into an environment suited to microbial growth.

  13. Time-dependent landslide probability mapping

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Campbell, Russell H.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; ,

    1993-01-01

    Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.

  14. Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, M.D.; Gray, B.R.

    2011-01-01

    Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505-2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  15. An introductory analysis of satellite collision probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlton-Wippern, Kitt C.

    This paper addresses a probailistic approach in assessing the probabilities of a satellite collision occurring due to relative trajectory analyses and probability density functions representing the satellites' position/momentum vectors. The paper is divided into 2 parts: Static and Dynamic Collision Probabilities. In the Static Collision Probability section, the basic phenomenon under study is: given the mean positions and associated position probability density functions for the two objects, calculate the probability that the two objects collide (defined as being within some distance of each other). The paper presents the classic Laplace problem of the probability of arrival, using standard uniform distribution functions. This problem is then extrapolated to show how 'arrival' can be classified as 'collision', how the arrival space geometries map to collision space geometries and how arbitrary position density functions can then be included and integrated into the analysis. In the Dynamic Collision Probability section, the nature of collisions based upon both trajectory and energy considerations is discussed, and that energy states alone cannot be used to completely describe whether or not a collision occurs. This fact invalidates some earlier work on the subject and demonstrates why Liouville's theorem cannot be used in general to describe the constant density of the position/momentum space in which a collision may occur. Future position probability density functions are then shown to be the convolution of the current position and momentum density functions (linear analysis), and the paper further demonstrates the dependency of the future position density functions on time. Strategies for assessing the collision probabilities for two point masses with uncertainties in position and momentum at some given time, and thes integrated with some arbitrary impact volume schema, are then discussed. This presentation concludes with the formulation of a high level design

  16. Negative probabilities, Fine's theorem, and linear positivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halliwell, J. J.; Yearsley, J. M.

    2013-02-01

    Many situations in quantum theory and other areas of physics lead to quasiprobabilities which seem to be physically useful but can be negative. The interpretation of such objects is not at all clear. In this paper, we show that quasiprobabilities naturally fall into two qualitatively different types, according to whether their non-negative marginals can or cannot be matched to a non-negative probability. The former type of quasiprobabilities, which we call viable, are qualitatively similar to true probabilities, but the latter type, which we call nonviable, may not have a sensible interpretation. Determining the existence of a probability matching given marginals is a nontrivial question in general. In simple examples, Fine's theorem indicates that inequalities of the Bell and Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt (CHSH) types provide criteria for its existence, and these examples are considered in detail. Our results have consequences for the linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page in the context of the histories approach to quantum theory. Although it is a very weak condition for the assignment of probabilities, it fails in some important cases where our results indicate that probabilities clearly exist. We speculate that our method, of matching probabilities to a given set of marginals, provides a general method of assigning probabilities to histories and we show that it passes the Diósi test for the statistical independence of subsystems.

  17. Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.; Jones, L.M.

    1998-01-01

    For a decade, the US Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude six mainshock. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

  18. Liquefaction probability curves for surficial geologic deposits

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Liquefaction probability curves that predict the probability of surface manifestations of earthquake-induced liquefaction are developed for 14 different types of surficial geologic units. The units consist of alluvial fan, beach ridge, river delta topset and foreset beds, eolian dune, point bar, flood basin, natural river and alluvial fan levees, abandoned river channel, deep-water lake, lagoonal, sandy artificial fill, and valley train deposits. Probability is conditioned on earthquake magnitude and peak ground acceleration. Curves are developed for water table depths of 1.5 and 5.0 m. Probabilities are derived from complementary cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) that were computed from 927 cone penetration tests. For natural deposits with a water table at 1.5 m and subjected to a M7.5 earthquake with peak ground acceleration (PGA)  =  0.25g, probabilities range from 0.5 for beach ridge, point bar, and deltaic deposits. The curves also were used to assign ranges of liquefaction probabilities to the susceptibility categories proposed previously for different geologic deposits. For the earthquake described here, probabilities for susceptibility categories have ranges of 0–0.08 for low, 0.09–0.30 for moderate, 0.31–0.62 for high, and 0.63–1.00 for very high. Retrospective predictions of liquefaction during historical earthquakes based on the curves compare favorably to observations.

  19. Calibrating random forests for probability estimation.

    PubMed

    Dankowski, Theresa; Ziegler, Andreas

    2016-09-30

    Probabilities can be consistently estimated using random forests. It is, however, unclear how random forests should be updated to make predictions for other centers or at different time points. In this work, we present two approaches for updating random forests for probability estimation. The first method has been proposed by Elkan and may be used for updating any machine learning approach yielding consistent probabilities, so-called probability machines. The second approach is a new strategy specifically developed for random forests. Using the terminal nodes, which represent conditional probabilities, the random forest is first translated to logistic regression models. These are, in turn, used for re-calibration. The two updating strategies were compared in a simulation study and are illustrated with data from the German Stroke Study Collaboration. In most simulation scenarios, both methods led to similar improvements. In the simulation scenario in which the stricter assumptions of Elkan's method were not met, the logistic regression-based re-calibration approach for random forests outperformed Elkan's method. It also performed better on the stroke data than Elkan's method. The strength of Elkan's method is its general applicability to any probability machine. However, if the strict assumptions underlying this approach are not met, the logistic regression-based approach is preferable for updating random forests for probability estimation. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Class probability estimation for medical studies.

    PubMed

    Simon, Richard

    2014-07-01

    I provide a commentary on two papers "Probability estimation with machine learning methods for dichotomous and multicategory outcome: Theory" by Jochen Kruppa, Yufeng Liu, Gérard Biau, Michael Kohler, Inke R. König, James D. Malley, and Andreas Ziegler; and "Probability estimation with machine learning methods for dichotomous and multicategory outcome: Applications" by Jochen Kruppa, Yufeng Liu, Hans-Christian Diener, Theresa Holste, Christian Weimar, Inke R. König, and Andreas Ziegler. Those papers provide an up-to-date review of some popular machine learning methods for class probability estimation and compare those methods to logistic regression modeling in real and simulated datasets.

  1. Contact probability scaling of the Hilbert curve

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanborn, Adrian; Li, Jian; Aiden, Erez L.

    2012-02-01

    Using Hi-C experiments, it has become possible to measure contact probability scalings for genomic polymers. However, the theoretical analysis of such scalings remains in its infancy. Here, we prove that contact probability scales with linear distance for lattice approximations of the Hilbert curve. These results point to the potential for new theoretical approaches to the study of contact probability, and shed light on the analysis behind the fractal globule, a recent model for the three-dimensional structure of the human genome.

  2. Objective and subjective probability in gene expression.

    PubMed

    Velasco, Joel D

    2012-09-01

    In this paper I address the question of whether the probabilities that appear in models of stochastic gene expression are objective or subjective. I argue that while our best models of the phenomena in question are stochastic models, this fact should not lead us to automatically assume that the processes are inherently stochastic. After distinguishing between models and reality, I give a brief introduction to the philosophical problem of the interpretation of probability statements. I argue that the objective vs. subjective distinction is a false dichotomy and is an unhelpful distinction in this case. Instead, the probabilities in our models of gene expression exhibit standard features of both objectivity and subjectivity.

  3. The probability distribution of intense daily precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavanaugh, Nicholas R.; Gershunov, Alexander; Panorska, Anna K.; Kozubowski, Tomasz J.

    2015-03-01

    The probability tail structure of over 22,000 weather stations globally is examined in order to identify the physically and mathematically consistent distribution type for modeling the probability of intense daily precipitation and extremes. Results indicate that when aggregating data annually, most locations are to be considered heavy tailed with statistical significance. When aggregating data by season, it becomes evident that the thickness of the probability tail is related to the variability in precipitation causing events and thus that the fundamental cause of precipitation volatility is weather diversity. These results have both theoretical and practical implications for the modeling of high-frequency climate variability worldwide.

  4. Using Microcomputers to Solve Probability Problems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haigh, William E.

    1985-01-01

    Use of the computer to simulate or imitate probability problems that are difficult to analyze in any other way is discussed. How the Monte Carlo method works is clarified, with sample problems and programs. (MNS)

  5. Classical and Quantum Spreading of Position Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farina, J. E. G.

    1977-01-01

    Demonstrates that the standard deviation of the position probability of a particle moving freely in one dimension is a function of the standard deviation of its velocity distribution and time in classical or quantum mechanics. (SL)

  6. The low synaptic release probability in vivo.

    PubMed

    Borst, J Gerard G

    2010-06-01

    The release probability, the average probability that an active zone of a presynaptic terminal releases one or more vesicles following an action potential, is tightly regulated. Measurements in cultured neurons or in slices indicate that this probability can vary greatly between synapses, but on average it is estimated to be as high as 0.5. In vivo, however, the size of synaptic potentials is relatively independent of recent history, suggesting that release probability is much lower. Possible causes for this discrepancy include maturational differences, a higher spontaneous activity, a lower extracellular calcium concentration and more prominent tonic inhibition by ambient neurotransmitters during in vivo recordings. Existing evidence thus suggests that under physiological conditions in vivo, presynaptic action potentials trigger the release of neurotransmitter much less frequently than what is observed in in vitro preparations.

  7. Transition Probability and the ESR Experiment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McBrierty, Vincent J.

    1974-01-01

    Discusses the use of a modified electron spin resonance apparatus to demonstrate some features of the expression for the transition probability per second between two energy levels. Applications to the third year laboratory program are suggested. (CC)

  8. Classical and Quantum Spreading of Position Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farina, J. E. G.

    1977-01-01

    Demonstrates that the standard deviation of the position probability of a particle moving freely in one dimension is a function of the standard deviation of its velocity distribution and time in classical or quantum mechanics. (SL)

  9. Characteristic length of the knotting probability revisited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

    2015-09-01

    We present a self-avoiding polygon (SAP) model for circular DNA in which the radius of impermeable cylindrical segments corresponds to the screening length of double-stranded DNA surrounded by counter ions. For the model we evaluate the probability for a generated SAP with N segments having a given knot K through simulation. We call it the knotting probability of a knot K with N segments for the SAP model. We show that when N is large the most significant factor in the knotting probability is given by the exponentially decaying part exp(-N/NK), where the estimates of parameter NK are consistent with the same value for all the different knots we investigated. We thus call it the characteristic length of the knotting probability. We give formulae expressing the characteristic length as a function of the cylindrical radius rex, i.e. the screening length of double-stranded DNA.

  10. On Convergent Probability of a Random Walk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Y.-F.; Ching, W.-K.

    2006-01-01

    This note introduces an interesting random walk on a straight path with cards of random numbers. The method of recurrent relations is used to obtain the convergent probability of the random walk with different initial positions.

  11. Inclusion probability with dropout: an operational formula.

    PubMed

    Milot, E; Courteau, J; Crispino, F; Mailly, F

    2015-05-01

    In forensic genetics, a mixture of two or more contributors to a DNA profile is often interpreted using the inclusion probabilities theory. In this paper, we present a general formula for estimating the probability of inclusion (PI, also known as the RMNE probability) from a subset of visible alleles when dropouts are possible. This one-locus formula can easily be extended to multiple loci using the cumulative probability of inclusion. We show that an exact formulation requires fixing the number of contributors, hence to slightly modify the classic interpretation of the PI. We discuss the implications of our results for the enduring debate over the use of PI vs likelihood ratio approaches within the context of low template amplifications.

  12. Zika Probably Not Spread Through Saliva: Study

    MedlinePlus

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_167531.html Zika Probably Not Spread Through Saliva: Study Research with ... HealthDay News) -- Scientists have some interesting news about Zika: You're unlikely to get the virus from ...

  13. On Convergent Probability of a Random Walk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Y.-F.; Ching, W.-K.

    2006-01-01

    This note introduces an interesting random walk on a straight path with cards of random numbers. The method of recurrent relations is used to obtain the convergent probability of the random walk with different initial positions.

  14. Probability distribution of the vacuum energy density

    SciTech Connect

    Duplancic, Goran; Stefancic, Hrvoje; Glavan, Drazen

    2010-12-15

    As the vacuum state of a quantum field is not an eigenstate of the Hamiltonian density, the vacuum energy density can be represented as a random variable. We present an analytical calculation of the probability distribution of the vacuum energy density for real and complex massless scalar fields in Minkowski space. The obtained probability distributions are broad and the vacuum expectation value of the Hamiltonian density is not fully representative of the vacuum energy density.

  15. Non-Gaussian Photon Probability Distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solomon, Benjamin T.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the axiom that the photon's probability distribution is a Gaussian distribution. The Airy disc empirical evidence shows that the best fit, if not exact, distribution is a modified Gamma mΓ distribution (whose parameters are α = r, βr/√u ) in the plane orthogonal to the motion of the photon. This modified Gamma distribution is then used to reconstruct the probability distributions along the hypotenuse from the pinhole, arc from the pinhole, and a line parallel to photon motion. This reconstruction shows that the photon's probability distribution is not a Gaussian function. However, under certain conditions, the distribution can appear to be Normal, thereby accounting for the success of quantum mechanics. This modified Gamma distribution changes with the shape of objects around it and thus explains how the observer alters the observation. This property therefore places additional constraints to quantum entanglement experiments. This paper shows that photon interaction is a multi-phenomena effect consisting of the probability to interact Pi, the probabilistic function and the ability to interact Ai, the electromagnetic function. Splitting the probability function Pi from the electromagnetic function Ai enables the investigation of the photon behavior from a purely probabilistic Pi perspective. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis is proposed as a consistent method for handling the two different phenomena, the probability function Pi and the ability to interact Ai, thus redefining radiation shielding, stealth or cloaking, and invisibility as different effects of a single phenomenon Pi of the photon probability distribution. Sub wavelength photon behavior is successfully modeled as a multi-phenomena behavior. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis provides a good fit to Otoshi's (1972) microwave shielding, Schurig et al. (2006) microwave cloaking, and Oulton et al. (2008) sub wavelength confinement; thereby providing a strong case that

  16. Imprecise Probability Methods for Weapons UQ

    SciTech Connect

    Picard, Richard Roy; Vander Wiel, Scott Alan

    2016-05-13

    Building on recent work in uncertainty quanti cation, we examine the use of imprecise probability methods to better characterize expert knowledge and to improve on misleading aspects of Bayesian analysis with informative prior distributions. Quantitative approaches to incorporate uncertainties in weapons certi cation are subject to rigorous external peer review, and in this regard, certain imprecise probability methods are well established in the literature and attractive. These methods are illustrated using experimental data from LANL detonator impact testing.

  17. Grounding quantum probability in psychological mechanism.

    PubMed

    Love, Bradley C

    2013-06-01

    Pothos & Busemeyer (P&B) provide a compelling case that quantum probability (QP) theory is a better match to human judgment than is classical probability (CP) theory. However, any theory (QP, CP, or other) phrased solely at the computational level runs the risk of being underconstrained. One suggestion is to ground QP accounts in mechanism, to leverage a wide range of process-level data.

  18. Probability, clinical decision making and hypothesis testing

    PubMed Central

    Banerjee, A.; Jadhav, S. L.; Bhawalkar, J. S.

    2009-01-01

    Few clinicians grasp the true concept of probability expressed in the ‘P value.’ For most, a statistically significant P value is the end of the search for truth. In fact, the opposite is the case. The present paper attempts to put the P value in proper perspective by explaining different types of probabilities, their role in clinical decision making, medical research and hypothesis testing. PMID:21234167

  19. A Manual for Encoding Probability Distributions.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1978-09-01

    summary of the most significant information contained in the report. If the report contains a significant bibliography or literature survey, mention it...probability distri- bution. Some terms in the literature that are used synonymously to Encoding: Assessment, Assignment (used for single events in this...sessions conducted as parts of practical decision analyses as well as on experimental evidence in the literature . Probability encoding can be applied

  20. Survival probability for open spherical billiards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dettmann, Carl P.; Rahman, Mohammed R.

    2014-12-01

    We study the survival probability for long times in an open spherical billiard, extending previous work on the circular billiard. We provide details of calculations regarding two billiard configurations, specifically a sphere with a circular hole and a sphere with a square hole. The constant terms of the long-time survival probability expansions have been derived analytically. Terms that vanish in the long time limit are investigated analytically and numerically, leading to connections with the Riemann hypothesis.

  1. Survival probability for open spherical billiards.

    PubMed

    Dettmann, Carl P; Rahman, Mohammed R

    2014-12-01

    We study the survival probability for long times in an open spherical billiard, extending previous work on the circular billiard. We provide details of calculations regarding two billiard configurations, specifically a sphere with a circular hole and a sphere with a square hole. The constant terms of the long-time survival probability expansions have been derived analytically. Terms that vanish in the long time limit are investigated analytically and numerically, leading to connections with the Riemann hypothesis.

  2. Robust satisficing and the probability of survival

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2014-01-01

    Concepts of robustness are sometimes employed when decisions under uncertainty are made without probabilistic information. We present a theorem that establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for non-probabilistic robustness to be equivalent to the probability of satisfying the specified outcome requirements. When this holds, probability is enhanced (or maximised) by enhancing (or maximising) robustness. Two further theorems establish important special cases. These theorems have implications for success or survival under uncertainty. Applications to foraging and finance are discussed.

  3. When probability trees don't work

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, K. C.; Lenard, C. T.; Mills, T. M.

    2016-08-01

    Tree diagrams arise naturally in courses on probability at high school or university, even at an elementary level. Often they are used to depict outcomes and associated probabilities from a sequence of games. A subtle issue is whether or not the Markov condition holds in the sequence of games. We present two examples that illustrate the importance of this issue. Suggestions as to how these examples may be used in a classroom are offered.

  4. Probabilities and health risks: a qualitative approach.

    PubMed

    Heyman, B; Henriksen, M; Maughan, K

    1998-11-01

    Health risks, defined in terms of the probability that an individual will suffer a particular type of adverse health event within a given time period, can be understood as referencing either natural entities or complex patterns of belief which incorporate the observer's values and knowledge, the position adopted in the present paper. The subjectivity inherent in judgements about adversity and time frames can be easily recognised, but social scientists have tended to accept uncritically the objectivity of probability. Most commonly in health risk analysis, the term probability refers to rates established by induction, and so requires the definition of a numerator and denominator. Depending upon their specification, many probabilities may be reasonably postulated for the same event, and individuals may change their risks by deciding to seek or avoid information. These apparent absurdities can be understood if probability is conceptualised as the projection of expectation onto the external world. Probabilities based on induction from observed frequencies provide glimpses of the future at the price of acceptance of the simplifying heuristic that statistics derived from aggregate groups can be validly attributed to individuals within them. The paper illustrates four implications of this conceptualisation of probability with qualitative data from a variety of sources, particularly a study of genetic counselling for pregnant women in a U.K. hospital. Firstly, the official selection of a specific probability heuristic reflects organisational constraints and values as well as predictive optimisation. Secondly, professionals and service users must work to maintain the facticity of an established heuristic in the face of alternatives. Thirdly, individuals, both lay and professional, manage probabilistic information in ways which support their strategic objectives. Fourthly, predictively sub-optimum schema, for example the idea of AIDS as a gay plague, may be selected because

  5. Site occupancy models with heterogeneous detection probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2006-01-01

    Models for estimating the probability of occurrence of a species in the presence of imperfect detection are important in many ecological disciplines. In these ?site occupancy? models, the possibility of heterogeneity in detection probabilities among sites must be considered because variation in abundance (and other factors) among sampled sites induces variation in detection probability (p). In this article, I develop occurrence probability models that allow for heterogeneous detection probabilities by considering several common classes of mixture distributions for p. For any mixing distribution, the likelihood has the general form of a zero-inflated binomial mixture for which inference based upon integrated likelihood is straightforward. A recent paper by Link (2003, Biometrics 59, 1123?1130) demonstrates that in closed population models used for estimating population size, different classes of mixture distributions are indistinguishable from data, yet can produce very different inferences about population size. I demonstrate that this problem can also arise in models for estimating site occupancy in the presence of heterogeneous detection probabilities. The implications of this are discussed in the context of an application to avian survey data and the development of animal monitoring programs.

  6. Familiarity and preference for pitch probability profiles.

    PubMed

    Cui, Anja-Xiaoxing; Collett, Meghan J; Troje, Niko F; Cuddy, Lola L

    2015-05-01

    We investigated familiarity and preference judgments of participants toward a novel musical system. We exposed participants to tone sequences generated from a novel pitch probability profile. Afterward, we either asked participants to identify more familiar or we asked participants to identify preferred tone sequences in a two-alternative forced-choice task. The task paired a tone sequence generated from the pitch probability profile they had been exposed to and a tone sequence generated from another pitch probability profile at three levels of distinctiveness. We found that participants identified tone sequences as more familiar if they were generated from the same pitch probability profile which they had been exposed to. However, participants did not prefer these tone sequences. We interpret this relationship between familiarity and preference to be consistent with an inverted U-shaped relationship between knowledge and affect. The fact that participants identified tone sequences as even more familiar if they were generated from the more distinctive (caricatured) version of the pitch probability profile which they had been exposed to suggests that the statistical learning of the pitch probability profile is involved in gaining of musical knowledge.

  7. The Estimation of Tree Posterior Probabilities Using Conditional Clade Probability Distributions

    PubMed Central

    Larget, Bret

    2013-01-01

    In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample. [Bayesian phylogenetics; conditional clade distributions; improved accuracy; posterior probabilities of trees.] PMID:23479066

  8. Probability detection mechanisms and motor learning.

    PubMed

    Lungu, O V; Wächter, T; Liu, T; Willingham, D T; Ashe, J

    2004-11-01

    The automatic detection of patterns or regularities in the environment is central to certain forms of motor learning, which are largely procedural and implicit. The rules underlying the detection and use of probabilistic information in the perceptual-motor domain are largely unknown. We conducted two experiments involving a motor learning task with direct and crossed mapping of motor responses in which probabilities were present at the stimulus set level, the response set level, and at the level of stimulus-response (S-R) mapping. We manipulated only one level at a time, while controlling for the other two. The results show that probabilities were detected only when present at the S-R mapping and motor levels, but not at the perceptual one (experiment 1), unless the perceptual features have a dimensional overlap with the S-R mapping rule (experiment 2). The effects of probability detection were mostly facilitatory at the S-R mapping, both facilitatory and inhibitory at the perceptual level, and predominantly inhibitory at the response-set level. The facilitatory effects were based on learning the absolute frequencies first and transitional probabilities later (for the S-R mapping rule) or both types of information at the same time (for perceptual level), whereas the inhibitory effects were based on learning first the transitional probabilities. Our data suggest that both absolute frequencies and transitional probabilities are used in motor learning, but in different temporal orders, according to the probabilistic properties of the environment. The results support the idea that separate neural circuits may be involved in detecting absolute frequencies as compared to transitional probabilities.

  9. Tsunami probability in the Caribbean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parsons, T.; Geist, E. L.

    2008-12-01

    We calculated tsunami runup probability at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20km by 20km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. A remarkable ~500-year empirical record was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it's unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c=0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack back-arc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20km by 20km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0-30 percent regionally.

  10. Tsunami probability in the Caribbean Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.; Geist, E.L.

    2008-01-01

    We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0 - 30% regionally. ?? irkhaueser 2008.

  11. Minimal entropy probability paths between genome families.

    PubMed

    Ahlbrandt, Calvin; Benson, Gary; Casey, William

    2004-05-01

    We develop a metric for probability distributions with applications to biological sequence analysis. Our distance metric is obtained by minimizing a functional defined on the class of paths over probability measures on N categories. The underlying mathematical theory is connected to a constrained problem in the calculus of variations. The solution presented is a numerical solution, which approximates the true solution in a set of cases called rich paths where none of the components of the path is zero. The functional to be minimized is motivated by entropy considerations, reflecting the idea that nature might efficiently carry out mutations of genome sequences in such a way that the increase in entropy involved in transformation is as small as possible. We characterize sequences by frequency profiles or probability vectors, in the case of DNA where N is 4 and the components of the probability vector are the frequency of occurrence of each of the bases A, C, G and T. Given two probability vectors a and b, we define a distance function based as the infimum of path integrals of the entropy function H( p) over all admissible paths p(t), 0 < or = t< or =1, with p(t) a probability vector such that p(0)=a and p(1)=b. If the probability paths p(t) are parameterized as y(s) in terms of arc length s and the optimal path is smooth with arc length L, then smooth and "rich" optimal probability paths may be numerically estimated by a hybrid method of iterating Newton's method on solutions of a two point boundary value problem, with unknown distance L between the abscissas, for the Euler-Lagrange equations resulting from a multiplier rule for the constrained optimization problem together with linear regression to improve the arc length estimate L. Matlab code for these numerical methods is provided which works only for "rich" optimal probability vectors. These methods motivate a definition of an elementary distance function which is easier and faster to calculate, works on non

  12. Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

    PubMed

    Baker, Stuart G

    2013-11-10

    Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design.

  13. Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

    2008-01-01

    In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

  14. The role of probabilities in physics.

    PubMed

    Le Bellac, Michel

    2012-09-01

    Although modern physics was born in the XVIIth century as a fully deterministic theory in the form of Newtonian mechanics, the use of probabilistic arguments turned out later on to be unavoidable. Three main situations can be distinguished. (1) When the number of degrees of freedom is very large, on the order of Avogadro's number, a detailed dynamical description is not possible, and in fact not useful: we do not care about the velocity of a particular molecule in a gas, all we need is the probability distribution of the velocities. This statistical description introduced by Maxwell and Boltzmann allows us to recover equilibrium thermodynamics, gives a microscopic interpretation of entropy and underlies our understanding of irreversibility. (2) Even when the number of degrees of freedom is small (but larger than three) sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics makes determinism irrelevant in practice, because we cannot control the initial conditions with infinite accuracy. Although die tossing is in principle predictable, the approach to chaotic dynamics in some limit implies that our ignorance of initial conditions is translated into a probabilistic description: each face comes up with probability 1/6. (3) As is well-known, quantum mechanics is incompatible with determinism. However, quantum probabilities differ in an essential way from the probabilities introduced previously: it has been shown from the work of John Bell that quantum probabilities are intrinsic and cannot be given an ignorance interpretation based on a hypothetical deeper level of description.

  15. Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2016-03-01

    Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.

  16. Using a Fluorescent Cytosine Analogue tC[superscript o] To Probe the Effect of the Y567 to Ala Substitution on the Preinsertion Steps of dNMP Incorporation by RB69 DNA Polymerase

    SciTech Connect

    Xia, Shuangluo; Beckman, Jeff; Wang, Jimin; Konigsberg, William H.

    2012-10-10

    Residues in the nascent base pair binding pocket (NBP) of bacteriophage RB69 DNA polymerase (RB69pol) are responsible for base discrimination. Replacing Tyr567 with Ala leads to greater flexibility in the NBP, increasing the probability of misincorporation. We used the fluorescent cytosine analogue, 1,3-diaza-2-oxophenoxazine (tC{sup o}), to identify preinsertion step(s) altered by NBP flexibility. When tC{sup o} is the templating base in a wild-type (wt) RB69pol ternary complex, its fluorescence is quenched only in the presence of dGTP. However, with the RB69pol Y567A mutant, the fluorescence of tC{sup o} is also quenched in the presence of dATP. We determined the crystal structure of the dATP/tC{sup o}-containing ternary complex of the RB69pol Y567A mutant at 1.9 {angstrom} resolution and found that the incoming dATP formed two hydrogen bonds with an imino-tautomerized form of tC{sup o}. Stabilization of the dATP/tC{sup o} base pair involved movement of the tC{sup o} backbone sugar into the DNA minor groove and required tilting of the tC{sup o} tricyclic ring to prevent a steric clash with L561. This structure, together with the pre-steady-state kinetic parameters and dNTP binding affinity, estimated from equilibrium fluorescence titrations, suggested that the flexibility of the NBP, provided by the Y567 to Ala substitution, led to a more favorable forward isomerization step resulting in an increase in dNTP binding affinity.

  17. Probability, arrow of time and decoherence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacciagaluppi, Guido

    This paper relates both to the metaphysics of probability and to the physics of time asymmetry. Using the formalism of decoherent histories, it investigates whether intuitions about intrinsic time directedness that are often associated with probability can be justified in the context of no-collapse approaches to quantum mechanics. The standard (two-vector) approach to time symmetry in the decoherent histories literature is criticised, and an alternative approach is proposed, based on two decoherence conditions ('forwards' and 'backwards') within the one-vector formalism. In turn, considerations of forwards and backwards decoherence and of decoherence and recoherence suggest that a time-directed interpretation of probabilities, if adopted, should be both contingent and perspectival.

  18. Local Directed Percolation Probability in Two Dimensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inui, Norio; Konno, Norio; Komatsu, Genichi; Kameoka, Koichi

    1998-01-01

    Using the series expansion method and Monte Carlo simulation,we study the directed percolation probability on the square lattice Vn0=\\{ (x,y) \\in {Z}2:x+y=even, 0 ≤ y ≤ n, - y ≤ x ≤ y \\}.We calculate the local percolationprobability Pnl defined as the connection probability between theorigin and a site (0,n). The critical behavior of P∞lis clearly different from the global percolation probability P∞g characterized by a critical exponent βg.An analysis based on the Padé approximants shows βl=2βg.In addition, we find that the series expansion of P2nl can be expressed as a function of Png.

  19. Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

    PubMed

    Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

    2014-02-01

    Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation.

  20. Match probabilities in racially admixed populations.

    PubMed Central

    Lange, K

    1993-01-01

    The calculation of match probabilities is the most contentious issue dividing prosecution and defense experts in the forensic applications of DNA fingerprinting. In particular, defense experts question the applicability of the population genetic laws of Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium to racially admixed American populations. Linkage equilibrium justifies the product rule for computing match probabilities across loci. The present paper suggests a method of bounding match probabilities that depends on modeling gene descent from ancestral populations to contemporary populations under the assumptions of Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium only in the ancestral populations. Although these bounds are conservative from the defendant's perspective, they should be small enough in practice to satisfy prosecutors. PMID:8430693

  1. Assessing semantic coherence in conditional probability estimates

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, Christopher R.

    2013-01-01

    Semantic coherence is a higher-order coherence benchmark that assesses whether a constellation of estimates—P(A), P(B), P(B | A), and P(A | B)—maps onto the relationship between sets implied by the description of a given problem. We present an automated method for evaluating semantic coherence in conditional probability estimates that efficiently reduces a large problem space into five meaningful patterns: identical sets, subsets, mutually exclusive sets, overlapping sets, and independent sets. It also identifies three theoretically interesting nonfallacious errors. We discuss unique issues in evaluating semantic coherence in conditional probabilities that are not present in joint probability judgments, such as errors resulting from dividing by zero and the use of a tolerance parameter to manage rounding errors. A spreadsheet implementing the methods described above can be downloaded as a supplement from www.springerlink.com. PMID:21512870

  2. Predicting the probability of outbreeding depression.

    PubMed

    Frankham, Richard; Ballou, Jonathan D; Eldridge, Mark D B; Lacy, Robert C; Ralls, Katherine; Dudash, Michele R; Fenster, Charles B

    2011-06-01

    Fragmentation of animal and plant populations typically leads to genetic erosion and increased probability of extirpation. Although these effects can usually be reversed by re-establishing gene flow between population fragments, managers sometimes fail to do so due to fears of outbreeding depression (OD). Rapid development of OD is due primarily to adaptive differentiation from selection or fixation of chromosomal variants. Fixed chromosomal variants can be detected empirically. We used an extended form of the breeders' equation to predict the probability of OD due to adaptive differentiation between recently isolated population fragments as a function of intensity of selection, genetic diversity, effective population sizes, and generations of isolation. Empirical data indicated that populations in similar environments had not developed OD even after thousands of generations of isolation. To predict the probability of OD, we developed a decision tree that was based on the four variables from the breeders' equation, taxonomic status, and gene flow within the last 500 years. The predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations is elevated when the populations have at least one of the following characteristics: are distinct species, have fixed chromosomal differences, exchanged no genes in the last 500 years, or inhabit different environments. Conversely, the predicted probability of OD in crosses between two populations of the same species is low for populations with the same karyotype, isolated for <500 years, and that occupy similar environments. In the former case, we recommend crossing be avoided or tried on a limited, experimental basis. In the latter case, crossing can be carried out with low probability of OD. We used crosses with known results to test the decision tree and found that it correctly identified cases where OD occurred. Current concerns about OD in recently fragmented populations are almost certainly excessive. ©2011 Society for

  3. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

    2008-08-01

    This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

  4. Exact probability distribution functions for Parrondo's games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zadourian, Rubina; Saakian, David B.; Klümper, Andreas

    2016-12-01

    We study the discrete time dynamics of Brownian ratchet models and Parrondo's games. Using the Fourier transform, we calculate the exact probability distribution functions for both the capital dependent and history dependent Parrondo's games. In certain cases we find strong oscillations near the maximum of the probability distribution with two limiting distributions for odd and even number of rounds of the game. Indications of such oscillations first appeared in the analysis of real financial data, but now we have found this phenomenon in model systems and a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon. The method of our work can be applied to Brownian ratchets, molecular motors, and portfolio optimization.

  5. Modeling gap probability in discontinuous vegetation canopies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Xiaowen; Strahler, Alan H.

    1987-01-01

    In the present model for the gap probability of a discontinuous vegetation canopy, the assumption of a negative exponential attenuation within individual plant canopies will yield a problem involving the distribution distances within canopies through which a ray will pass. If, however, the canopies intersect and/or overlap, so that foliage density remains constant within the overlap area, the problem can be approached with two types of approximations. Attention is presently given to the case of a comparison of modeled gap probabilities with those observed for a stand of Maryland pine, which shows good agreement for zenith angles of illumination up to about 45 deg.

  6. Non-Gaussian Photon Probability Distribution

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, Benjamin T.

    2010-01-28

    This paper investigates the axiom that the photon's probability distribution is a Gaussian distribution. The Airy disc empirical evidence shows that the best fit, if not exact, distribution is a modified Gamma mGAMMA distribution (whose parameters are alpha = r, betar/sq root(u)) in the plane orthogonal to the motion of the photon. This modified Gamma distribution is then used to reconstruct the probability distributions along the hypotenuse from the pinhole, arc from the pinhole, and a line parallel to photon motion. This reconstruction shows that the photon's probability distribution is not a Gaussian function. However, under certain conditions, the distribution can appear to be Normal, thereby accounting for the success of quantum mechanics. This modified Gamma distribution changes with the shape of objects around it and thus explains how the observer alters the observation. This property therefore places additional constraints to quantum entanglement experiments. This paper shows that photon interaction is a multi-phenomena effect consisting of the probability to interact P{sub i}, the probabilistic function and the ability to interact A{sub i}, the electromagnetic function. Splitting the probability function P{sub i} from the electromagnetic function A{sub i} enables the investigation of the photon behavior from a purely probabilistic P{sub i} perspective. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis is proposed as a consistent method for handling the two different phenomena, the probability function P{sub i} and the ability to interact A{sub i}, thus redefining radiation shielding, stealth or cloaking, and invisibility as different effects of a single phenomenon P{sub i} of the photon probability distribution. Sub wavelength photon behavior is successfully modeled as a multi-phenomena behavior. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis provides a good fit to Otoshi's (1972) microwave shielding, Schurig et al.(2006) microwave cloaking, and Oulton et al.(2008) sub

  7. Atomic transition probabilities of Nd I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stockett, M. H.; Wood, M. P.; Den Hartog, E. A.; Lawler, J. E.

    2011-12-01

    Fourier transform spectra are used to determine emission branching fractions for 236 lines of the first spectrum of neodymium (Nd i). These branching fractions are converted to absolute atomic transition probabilities using radiative lifetimes from time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence measurements (Den Hartog et al 2011 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 44 225001). The wavelength range of the data set is from 390 to 950 nm. These transition probabilities from emission and laser measurements are compared to relative absorption measurements in order to assess the importance of unobserved infrared branches from selected upper levels.

  8. Probabilities for separating sets of order statistics.

    PubMed

    Glueck, D H; Karimpour-Fard, A; Mandel, J; Muller, K E

    2010-04-01

    Consider a set of order statistics that arise from sorting samples from two different populations, each with their own, possibly different distribution functions. The probability that these order statistics fall in disjoint, ordered intervals and that of the smallest statistics, a certain number come from the first populations is given in terms of the two distribution functions. The result is applied to computing the joint probability of the number of rejections and the number of false rejections for the Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate procedure.

  9. Probable Gastrointestinal Toxicity of Kombucha Tea

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasan, Radhika; Smolinske, Susan; Greenbaum, David

    1997-01-01

    Kombucha tea is a health beverage made by incubating the Kombucha “mushroom” in tea and sugar. Although therapeutic benefits have been attributed to the drink, neither its beneficial effects nor adverse side effects have been reported widely in the scientific literature. Side effects probably related to consumption of Kombucha tea are reported in four patients. Two presented with symptoms of allergic reaction, the third with jaundice, and the fourth with nausea, vomiting, and head and neck pain. In all four, use of Kombucha tea in proximity to onset of symptoms and symptom resolution on cessation of tea drinking suggest a probable etiologic association. PMID:9346462

  10. Steering in spin tomographic probability representation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Man'ko, V. I.; Markovich, L. A.

    2016-09-01

    The steering property known for two-qubit state in terms of specific inequalities for the correlation function is translated for the state of qudit with the spin j = 3 / 2. Since most steering detection inequalities are based on the correlation functions we introduce analogs of such functions for the single qudit systems. The tomographic probability representation for the qudit states is applied. The connection between the correlation function in the two-qubit system and the single qudit is presented in an integral form with an intertwining kernel calculated explicitly in tomographic probability terms.

  11. Intrinsic Probability of a Multifractal Set

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosokawa, Iwao

    1991-12-01

    It is shown that a self-similar measure isotropically distributed in a d-dimensional set should have its own intermittency exponents equivalent to its own generalized dimensions (in the sense of Hentschel and Procaccia), and that the intermittency exponents are completely designated by an intrinsic probability which governs the spatial distribution of the measure. Based on this, it is proven that the intrinsic probability uniquely determines the spatial distribution of the scaling index α of the measure as well as the so-called f-α spectrum of the multifractal set.

  12. Nonstationary envelope process and first excursion probability.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, J.-N.

    1972-01-01

    The definition of stationary random envelope proposed by Cramer and Leadbetter, is extended to the envelope of nonstationary random process possessing evolutionary power spectral densities. The density function, the joint density function, the moment function, and the crossing rate of a level of the nonstationary envelope process are derived. Based on the envelope statistics, approximate solutions to the first excursion probability of nonstationary random processes are obtained. In particular, applications of the first excursion probability to the earthquake engineering problems are demonstrated in detail.

  13. Random walks with similar transition probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiefermayr, Klaus

    2003-04-01

    We consider random walks on the nonnegative integers with a possible absorbing state at -1. A random walk is called [alpha]-similar to a random walk if there exist constants Cij such that for the corresponding n-step transition probabilities , i,j[greater-or-equal, slanted]0, hold. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for the [alpha]-similarity of two random walks both in terms of the parameters and in terms of the corresponding spectral measures which appear in the spectral representation of the n-step transition probabilities developed by Karlin and McGregor.

  14. Nonequilibrium random matrix theory: Transition probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pedro, Francisco Gil; Westphal, Alexander

    2017-03-01

    In this paper we present an analytic method for calculating the transition probability between two random Gaussian matrices with given eigenvalue spectra in the context of Dyson Brownian motion. We show that in the Coulomb gas language, in large N limit, memory of the initial state is preserved in the form of a universal linear potential acting on the eigenvalues. We compute the likelihood of any given transition as a function of time, showing that as memory of the initial state is lost, transition probabilities converge to those of the static ensemble.

  15. Quantum probability and quantum decision-making.

    PubMed

    Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

    2016-01-13

    A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid not only for elementary events but also for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision-making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary.

  16. Determining system maintainability as a probability

    SciTech Connect

    Wright, R.E.; Atwood, C.L.

    1988-01-01

    Maintainability has often been defined in principle as the probability that a system or component can be repaired in a specific time given that it is in a failed state, but presented in practice in terms of mean-time-to-repair. In this paper, formulas are developed for maintainability as a probability, analogous to those for reliability and availability. This formulation is expressed in terms of cut sets, and leads to a natural definition of unmaintainability importance for cut sets and basic events. 6 refs.

  17. Probability in biology: overview of a comprehensive theory of probability in living systems.

    PubMed

    Nakajima, Toshiyuki

    2013-09-01

    Probability is closely related to biological organization and adaptation to the environment. Living systems need to maintain their organizational order by producing specific internal events non-randomly, and must cope with the uncertain environments. These processes involve increases in the probability of favorable events for these systems by reducing the degree of uncertainty of events. Systems with this ability will survive and reproduce more than those that have less of this ability. Probabilistic phenomena have been deeply explored using the mathematical theory of probability since Kolmogorov's axiomatization provided mathematical consistency for the theory. However, the interpretation of the concept of probability remains both unresolved and controversial, which creates problems when the mathematical theory is applied to problems in real systems. In this article, recent advances in the study of the foundations of probability from a biological viewpoint are reviewed, and a new perspective is discussed toward a comprehensive theory of probability for understanding the organization and adaptation of living systems.

  18. The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

    PubMed

    Larget, Bret

    2013-07-01

    In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

  19. Probability learning and Piagetian probability conceptions in children 5 to 12 years old.

    PubMed

    Kreitler, S; Zigler, E; Kreitler, H

    1989-11-01

    This study focused on the relations between performance on a three-choice probability-learning task and conceptions of probability as outlined by Piaget concerning mixture, normal distribution, random selection, odds estimation, and permutations. The probability-learning task and four Piagetian tasks were administered randomly to 100 male and 100 female, middle SES, average IQ children in three age groups (5 to 6, 8 to 9, and 11 to 12 years old) from different schools. Half the children were from Middle Eastern backgrounds, and half were from European or American backgrounds. As predicted, developmental level of probability thinking was related to performance on the probability-learning task. The more advanced the child's probability thinking, the higher his or her level of maximization and hypothesis formulation and testing and the lower his or her level of systematically patterned responses. The results suggest that the probability-learning and Piagetian tasks assess similar cognitive skills and that performance on the probability-learning task reflects a variety of probability concepts.

  20. Quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities in the lattice of subspaces

    SciTech Connect

    Vourdas, A.

    2014-08-15

    The orthocomplemented modular lattice of subspaces L[H(d)], of a quantum system with d-dimensional Hilbert space H(d), is considered. A generalized additivity relation which holds for Kolmogorov probabilities is violated by quantum probabilities in the full lattice L[H(d)] (it is only valid within the Boolean subalgebras of L[H(d)]). This suggests the use of more general (than Kolmogorov) probability theories, and here the Dempster-Shafer probability theory is adopted. An operator D(H{sub 1},H{sub 2}), which quantifies deviations from Kolmogorov probability theory is introduced, and it is shown to be intimately related to the commutator of the projectors P(H{sub 1}),P(H{sub 2}), to the subspaces H{sub 1}, H{sub 2}. As an application, it is shown that the proof of the inequalities of Clauser, Horne, Shimony, and Holt for a system of two spin 1/2 particles is valid for Kolmogorov probabilities, but it is not valid for Dempster-Shafer probabilities. The violation of these inequalities in experiments supports the interpretation of quantum probabilities as Dempster-Shafer probabilities.

  1. Probability of boundary conditions in quantum cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suenobu, Hiroshi; Nambu, Yasusada

    2017-02-01

    One of the main interest in quantum cosmology is to determine boundary conditions for the wave function of the universe which can predict observational data of our universe. For this purpose, we solve the Wheeler-DeWitt equation for a closed universe with a scalar field numerically and evaluate probabilities for boundary conditions of the wave function of the universe. To impose boundary conditions of the wave function, we use exact solutions of the Wheeler-DeWitt equation with a constant scalar field potential. These exact solutions include wave functions with well known boundary condition proposals, the no-boundary proposal and the tunneling proposal. We specify the exact solutions by introducing two real parameters to discriminate boundary conditions, and obtain the probability for these parameters under the requirement of sufficient e-foldings of the inflation. The probability distribution of boundary conditions prefers the tunneling boundary condition to the no-boundary boundary condition. Furthermore, for large values of a model parameter related to the inflaton mass and the cosmological constant, the probability of boundary conditions selects an unique boundary condition different from the tunneling type.

  2. Probability of boundary conditions in quantum cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nambu, Yasusada; Suenobu, Hiroshi

    2017-08-01

    One of the main interest in quantum cosmology is to determine boundary conditions for the wave function of the universe which can predict observational data of our universe. For this purpose, we solve the Wheeler-DeWitt equation for a closed universe with a scalar field numerically and evaluate probabilities for boundary conditions of the wave function of the universe. To impose boundary conditions of the wave function, we use exact solutions of the Wheeler-DeWitt equation with a constant scalar field potential. We specify the exact solutions by introducing two real parameters to discriminate boundary conditions, and obtain the probability for these parameters under the requirement of sufficient e-foldings of the inflation. The probability distribution of boundary conditions prefers the tunneling boundary condition to the no-boundary boundary condition. Furthermore, for large values of a model parameter related to the inflaton mass and the cosmological constant, the probability of boundary conditions selects an unique boundary condition different from the tunneling type.

  3. Confusion between Odds and Probability, a Pandemic?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fulton, Lawrence V.; Mendez, Francis A.; Bastian, Nathaniel D.; Musal, R. Muzaffer

    2012-01-01

    This manuscript discusses the common confusion between the terms probability and odds. To emphasize the importance and responsibility of being meticulous in the dissemination of information and knowledge, this manuscript reveals five cases of sources of inaccurate statistical language imbedded in the dissemination of information to the general…

  4. Rethinking the learning of belief network probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Musick, R.

    1996-03-01

    Belief networks are a powerful tool for knowledge discovery that provide concise, understandable probabilistic models of data. There are methods grounded in probability theory to incrementally update the relationships described by the belief network when new information is seen, to perform complex inferences over any set of variables in the data, to incorporate domain expertise and prior knowledge into the model, and to automatically learn the model from data. This paper concentrates on part of the belief network induction problem, that of learning the quantitative structure (the conditional probabilities), given the qualitative structure. In particular, the current practice of rote learning the probabilities in belief networks can be significantly improved upon. We advance the idea of applying any learning algorithm to the task of conditional probability learning in belief networks, discuss potential benefits, and show results of applying neural networks and other algorithms to a medium sized car insurance belief network. The results demonstrate from 10 to 100% improvements in model error rates over the current approaches.

  5. Posterior Probabilities for a Consensus Ordering.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fligner, Michael A.; Verducci, Joseph S.

    1990-01-01

    The concept of consensus ordering is defined, and formulas for exact and approximate posterior probabilities for consensus ordering are developed under the assumption of a generalized Mallows' model with a diffuse conjugate prior. These methods are applied to a data set concerning 98 college students. (SLD)

  6. Simplicity and Probability in Causal Explanation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lombrozo, Tania

    2007-01-01

    What makes some explanations better than others? This paper explores the roles of simplicity and probability in evaluating competing causal explanations. Four experiments investigate the hypothesis that simpler explanations are judged both better and more likely to be true. In all experiments, simplicity is quantified as the number of causes…

  7. Phonotactic Probability Effects in Children Who Stutter

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Julie D.; Byrd, Courtney T.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of "phonotactic probability", which is the frequency of different sound segments and segment sequences, on the overall fluency with which words are produced by preschool children who stutter (CWS) as well as to determine whether it has an effect on the type of stuttered disfluency…

  8. Five-Parameter Bivariate Probability Distribution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tubbs, J.; Brewer, D.; Smith, O. W.

    1986-01-01

    NASA technical memorandum presents four papers about five-parameter bivariate gamma class of probability distributions. With some overlap of subject matter, papers address different aspects of theories of these distributions and use in forming statistical models of such phenomena as wind gusts. Provides acceptable results for defining constraints in problems designing aircraft and spacecraft to withstand large wind-gust loads.

  9. Independent Events in Elementary Probability Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Csenki, Attila

    2011-01-01

    In Probability and Statistics taught to mathematicians as a first introduction or to a non-mathematical audience, joint independence of events is introduced by requiring that the multiplication rule is satisfied. The following statement is usually tacitly assumed to hold (and, at best, intuitively motivated): If the n events E[subscript 1],…

  10. Geometric Probability and the Areas of Leaves

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoiberg, Karen Bush; Sharp, Janet; Hodgson, Ted; Colbert, Jim

    2005-01-01

    This article describes how a group of fifth-grade mathematics students measured irregularly shaped objects using geometric probability theory. After learning how to apply a ratio procedure to find the areas of familiar shapes, students extended the strategy for use with irregularly shaped objects, in this case, leaves. (Contains 2 tables and 8…

  11. Assessing Schematic Knowledge of Introductory Probability Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birney, Damian P.; Fogarty, Gerard J.; Plank, Ashley

    2005-01-01

    The ability to identify schematic knowledge is an important goal for both assessment and instruction. In the current paper, schematic knowledge of statistical probability theory is explored from the declarative-procedural framework using multiple methods of assessment. A sample of 90 undergraduate introductory statistics students was required to…

  12. Automatic Item Generation of Probability Word Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holling, Heinz; Bertling, Jonas P.; Zeuch, Nina

    2009-01-01

    Mathematical word problems represent a common item format for assessing student competencies. Automatic item generation (AIG) is an effective way of constructing many items with predictable difficulties, based on a set of predefined task parameters. The current study presents a framework for the automatic generation of probability word problems…

  13. Probability from a Socio-Cultural Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Sashi

    2016-01-01

    There exists considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions about probability; less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. Grounded in an analysis of the literature, this article offers a lesson sequence for developing students' probabilistic understanding. In particular, a…

  14. Contributions of Probability to Everyday Living

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koop, A. J.

    1977-01-01

    The contributions made by including probability theory in the primary grade curriculum are examined with respect to the day to day living of the developing child and his preparation for later life. In particular, language and decision making, misconceptions, research and systematic thinking, occupations, and the future are discussed. (MN)

  15. Technique for Evaluating Multiple Probability Occurrences /TEMPO/

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mezzacappa, M. A.

    1970-01-01

    Technique is described for adjustment of engineering response information by broadening the application of statistical subjective stimuli theory. The study is specifically concerned with a mathematical evaluation of the expected probability of relative occurrence which can be identified by comparison rating techniques.

  16. Idempotent probability measures on ultrametric spaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hubal, Oleksandra; Zarichnyi, Mykhailo

    2008-07-01

    Following the construction due to Hartog and Vink we introduce a metric on the set of idempotent probability measures (Maslov measures) defined on an ultrametric space. This construction determines a functor on the category of ultrametric spaces and nonexpanding maps. We prove that this functor is the functorial part of a monad on this category. This monad turns out to contain the hyperspace monad.

  17. Spatial Probability Cuing and Right Hemisphere Damage

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaqiri, Albulena; Anderson, Britt

    2012-01-01

    In this experiment we studied statistical learning, inter-trial priming, and visual attention. We assessed healthy controls and right brain damaged (RBD) patients with and without neglect, on a simple visual discrimination task designed to measure priming effects and probability learning. All participants showed a preserved priming effect for item…

  18. Learning a Probability Distribution Efficiently and Reliably

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laird, Philip; Gamble, Evan

    1988-01-01

    A new algorithm, called the CDF-Inversion Algorithm, is described. Using it, one can efficiently learn a probability distribution over a finite set to a specified accuracy and confidence. The algorithm can be extended to learn joint distributions over a vector space. Some implementation results are described.

  19. Probability & Statistics: Modular Learning Exercises. Teacher Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Actuarial Foundation, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The modules also introduce students to real world math concepts and problems that property and casualty actuaries come across in their work. They are designed to be used by teachers and…

  20. Overcoming Challenges in Learning Probability Vocabulary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groth, Randall E.; Butler, Jaime; Nelson, Delmar

    2016-01-01

    Students can struggle to understand and use terms that describe probabilities. Such struggles lead to difficulties comprehending classroom conversations. In this article, we describe some specific misunderstandings a group of students (ages 11-12) held in regard to vocabulary such as "certain", "likely" and…

  1. Posterior Probabilities for a Consensus Ordering.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fligner, Michael A.; Verducci, Joseph S.

    1990-01-01

    The concept of consensus ordering is defined, and formulas for exact and approximate posterior probabilities for consensus ordering are developed under the assumption of a generalized Mallows' model with a diffuse conjugate prior. These methods are applied to a data set concerning 98 college students. (SLD)

  2. Probability in Action: The Red Traffic Light

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shanks, John A.

    2007-01-01

    Emphasis on problem solving in mathematics has gained considerable attention in recent years. While statistics teaching has always been problem driven, the same cannot be said for the teaching of probability where discrete examples involving coins and playing cards are often the norm. This article describes an application of simple probability…

  3. Probability & Perception: The Representativeness Heuristic in Action

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Yun; Vasko, Francis J.; Drummond, Trevor J.; Vasko, Lisa E.

    2014-01-01

    If the prospective students of probability lack a background in mathematical proofs, hands-on classroom activities may work well to help them to learn to analyze problems correctly. For example, students may physically roll a die twice to count and compare the frequency of the sequences. Tools such as graphing calculators or Microsoft Excel®…

  4. Overcoming Challenges in Learning Probability Vocabulary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Groth, Randall E.; Butler, Jaime; Nelson, Delmar

    2016-01-01

    Students can struggle to understand and use terms that describe probabilities. Such struggles lead to difficulties comprehending classroom conversations. In this article, we describe some specific misunderstandings a group of students (ages 11-12) held in regard to vocabulary such as "certain", "likely" and…

  5. Investigating Probability with the NBA Draft Lottery.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinn, Robert J.

    1997-01-01

    Investigates an interesting application of probability in the world of sports. Considers the role of permutations in the lottery system used by the National Basketball Association (NBA) in the United States to determine the order in which nonplayoff teams select players from the college ranks. Presents a lesson on this topic in which students work…

  6. The Smart Potential behind Probability Matching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Schooler, Lael J.

    2008-01-01

    Probability matching is a classic choice anomaly that has been studied extensively. While many approaches assume that it is a cognitive shortcut driven by cognitive limitations, recent literature suggests that it is not a strategy per se, but rather another outcome of people's well-documented misperception of randomness. People search for patterns…

  7. Estimating the Probability of Negative Events

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Adam J. L.; Corner, Adam; Hahn, Ulrike

    2009-01-01

    How well we are attuned to the statistics of our environment is a fundamental question in understanding human behaviour. It seems particularly important to be able to provide accurate assessments of the probability with which negative events occur so as to guide rational choice of preventative actions. One question that arises here is whether or…

  8. Probability & Statistics: Modular Learning Exercises. Student Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Actuarial Foundation, 2012

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The materials are centered on the fictional town of Happy Shores, a coastal community which is at risk for hurricanes. Actuaries at an insurance company figure out the risks and…

  9. Confusion between Odds and Probability, a Pandemic?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fulton, Lawrence V.; Mendez, Francis A.; Bastian, Nathaniel D.; Musal, R. Muzaffer

    2012-01-01

    This manuscript discusses the common confusion between the terms probability and odds. To emphasize the importance and responsibility of being meticulous in the dissemination of information and knowledge, this manuscript reveals five cases of sources of inaccurate statistical language imbedded in the dissemination of information to the general…

  10. Automatic Item Generation of Probability Word Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holling, Heinz; Bertling, Jonas P.; Zeuch, Nina

    2009-01-01

    Mathematical word problems represent a common item format for assessing student competencies. Automatic item generation (AIG) is an effective way of constructing many items with predictable difficulties, based on a set of predefined task parameters. The current study presents a framework for the automatic generation of probability word problems…

  11. The Smart Potential behind Probability Matching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Schooler, Lael J.

    2008-01-01

    Probability matching is a classic choice anomaly that has been studied extensively. While many approaches assume that it is a cognitive shortcut driven by cognitive limitations, recent literature suggests that it is not a strategy per se, but rather another outcome of people's well-documented misperception of randomness. People search for patterns…

  12. On the bound of first excursion probability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yang, J. N.

    1969-01-01

    Method has been developed to improve the lower bound of the first excursion probability that can apply to the problem with either constant or time-dependent barriers. The method requires knowledge of the joint density function of the random process at two arbitrary instants.

  13. Probability distribution functions in turbulent convection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balachandar, S.; Sirovich, L.

    1991-01-01

    Results of an extensive investigation of probability distribution functions (pdfs) for Rayleigh-Benard convection, in hard turbulence regime, are presented. It is shown that the pdfs exhibit a high degree of internal universality. In certain cases this universality is established within two Kolmogorov scales of a boundary. A discussion of the factors leading to the universality is presented.

  14. Spatial Probability Cuing and Right Hemisphere Damage

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shaqiri, Albulena; Anderson, Britt

    2012-01-01

    In this experiment we studied statistical learning, inter-trial priming, and visual attention. We assessed healthy controls and right brain damaged (RBD) patients with and without neglect, on a simple visual discrimination task designed to measure priming effects and probability learning. All participants showed a preserved priming effect for item…

  15. Time Required to Compute A Posteriori Probabilities,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    The paper discusses the time required to compute a posteriori probabilities using Bayes ’ Theorem . In a two-hypothesis example it is shown that, to... Bayes ’ Theorem as the group operation. Winograd’s results concerning the lower bound on the time required to perform a group operation on a finite group using logical circuitry are therefore applicable. (Author)

  16. Probability Matching in the Right Hemisphere

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, M.B.; Valsangkar-Smyth, M.

    2005-01-01

    Previously it has been shown that the left hemisphere, but not the right, of split-brain patients tends to match the frequency of previous occurrences in probability-guessing paradigms (Wolford, Miller, & Gazzaniga, 2000). This phenomenon has been attributed to an ''interpreter,'' a mechanism for making interpretations and forming hypotheses,…

  17. Probability & Perception: The Representativeness Heuristic in Action

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Yun; Vasko, Francis J.; Drummond, Trevor J.; Vasko, Lisa E.

    2014-01-01

    If the prospective students of probability lack a background in mathematical proofs, hands-on classroom activities may work well to help them to learn to analyze problems correctly. For example, students may physically roll a die twice to count and compare the frequency of the sequences. Tools such as graphing calculators or Microsoft Excel®…

  18. Probability distribution functions of the Grincevicjus series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kapica, Rafal; Morawiec, Janusz

    2008-06-01

    Given a sequence ([xi]n,[eta]n) of independent identically distributed vectors of random variables we consider the Grincevicjus series and a functional-integral equation connected with it. We prove that the equation characterizes all probability distribution functions of the Grincevicjus series. Moreover, some application of this characterization to a continuous refinement equation is presented.

  19. Interstitial lung disease probably caused by imipramine.

    PubMed

    Deshpande, Prasanna R; Ravi, Ranjani; Gouda, Sinddalingana; Stanley, Weena; Hande, Manjunath H

    2014-01-01

    Drugs are rarely associated with causing interstitial lung disease (ILD). We report a case of a 75-year-old woman who developed ILD after exposure to imipramine. To our knowledge, this is one of the rare cases of ILD probably caused due to imipramine. There is need to report such rare adverse effects related to ILD and drugs for better management of ILD.

  20. Probability from a Socio-Cultural Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Sashi

    2016-01-01

    There exists considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions about probability; less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. Grounded in an analysis of the literature, this article offers a lesson sequence for developing students' probabilistic understanding. In particular, a…

  1. Large Deviations: Advanced Probability for Undergrads

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rolls, David A.

    2007-01-01

    In the branch of probability called "large deviations," rates of convergence (e.g. of the sample mean) are considered. The theory makes use of the moment generating function. So, particularly for sums of independent and identically distributed random variables, the theory can be made accessible to senior undergraduates after a first course in…

  2. Activities in Elementary Probability, Monograph No. 9.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fouch, Daniel J.

    This monograph on elementary probability for middle school, junior high, or high school consumer mathematics students is divided into two parts. Part one emphasizes lessons which cover the fundamental counting principle, permutations, and combinations. The 5 lessons of part I indicate the objectives, examples, methods, application, and problems…

  3. Probability in Action: The Red Traffic Light

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shanks, John A.

    2007-01-01

    Emphasis on problem solving in mathematics has gained considerable attention in recent years. While statistics teaching has always been problem driven, the same cannot be said for the teaching of probability where discrete examples involving coins and playing cards are often the norm. This article describes an application of simple probability…

  4. Investigating Probability with the NBA Draft Lottery.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinn, Robert J.

    1997-01-01

    Investigates an interesting application of probability in the world of sports. Considers the role of permutations in the lottery system used by the National Basketball Association (NBA) in the United States to determine the order in which nonplayoff teams select players from the college ranks. Presents a lesson on this topic in which students work…

  5. Toward an Objectivistic Theory of Probability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1956-01-01

    permanent is already shown by psychoanalysis , in my opinion. The fact that in nature ’all is woven into one whole,’ that space, matter, gravitation...the comprehensive probability distribution of the process. For any eventuality An E tn we shall write simply u(An) to denote the number u(Ql X * X A

  6. Monte Carlo methods to calculate impact probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rickman, H.; Wiśniowski, T.; Wajer, P.; Gabryszewski, R.; Valsecchi, G. B.

    2014-09-01

    Context. Unraveling the events that took place in the solar system during the period known as the late heavy bombardment requires the interpretation of the cratered surfaces of the Moon and terrestrial planets. This, in turn, requires good estimates of the statistical impact probabilities for different source populations of projectiles, a subject that has received relatively little attention, since the works of Öpik (1951, Proc. R. Irish Acad. Sect. A, 54, 165) and Wetherill (1967, J. Geophys. Res., 72, 2429). Aims: We aim to work around the limitations of the Öpik and Wetherill formulae, which are caused by singularities due to zero denominators under special circumstances. Using modern computers, it is possible to make good estimates of impact probabilities by means of Monte Carlo simulations, and in this work, we explore the available options. Methods: We describe three basic methods to derive the average impact probability for a projectile with a given semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination with respect to a target planet on an elliptic orbit. One is a numerical averaging of the Wetherill formula; the next is a Monte Carlo super-sizing method using the target's Hill sphere. The third uses extensive minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) calculations for a Monte Carlo sampling of potentially impacting orbits, along with calculations of the relevant interval for the timing of the encounter allowing collision. Numerical experiments are carried out for an intercomparison of the methods and to scrutinize their behavior near the singularities (zero relative inclination and equal perihelion distances). Results: We find an excellent agreement between all methods in the general case, while there appear large differences in the immediate vicinity of the singularities. With respect to the MOID method, which is the only one that does not involve simplifying assumptions and approximations, the Wetherill averaging impact probability departs by diverging toward

  7. Quantum temporal probabilities in tunneling systems

    SciTech Connect

    Anastopoulos, Charis Savvidou, Ntina

    2013-09-15

    We study the temporal aspects of quantum tunneling as manifested in time-of-arrival experiments in which the detected particle tunnels through a potential barrier. In particular, we present a general method for constructing temporal probabilities in tunneling systems that (i) defines ‘classical’ time observables for quantum systems and (ii) applies to relativistic particles interacting through quantum fields. We show that the relevant probabilities are defined in terms of specific correlation functions of the quantum field associated with tunneling particles. We construct a probability distribution with respect to the time of particle detection that contains all information about the temporal aspects of the tunneling process. In specific cases, this probability distribution leads to the definition of a delay time that, for parity-symmetric potentials, reduces to the phase time of Bohm and Wigner. We apply our results to piecewise constant potentials, by deriving the appropriate junction conditions on the points of discontinuity. For the double square potential, in particular, we demonstrate the existence of (at least) two physically relevant time parameters, the delay time and a decay rate that describes the escape of particles trapped in the inter-barrier region. Finally, we propose a resolution to the paradox of apparent superluminal velocities for tunneling particles. We demonstrate that the idea of faster-than-light speeds in tunneling follows from an inadmissible use of classical reasoning in the description of quantum systems. -- Highlights: •Present a general methodology for deriving temporal probabilities in tunneling systems. •Treatment applies to relativistic particles interacting through quantum fields. •Derive a new expression for tunneling time. •Identify new time parameters relevant to tunneling. •Propose a resolution of the superluminality paradox in tunneling.

  8. An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

  9. Using High-Probability Foods to Increase the Acceptance of Low-Probability Foods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meier, Aimee E.; Fryling, Mitch J.; Wallace, Michele D.

    2012-01-01

    Studies have evaluated a range of interventions to treat food selectivity in children with autism and related developmental disabilities. The high-probability instructional sequence is one intervention with variable results in this area. We evaluated the effectiveness of a high-probability sequence using 3 presentations of a preferred food on…

  10. Killeen's Probability of Replication and Predictive Probabilities: How to Compute, Use, and Interpret Them

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lecoutre, Bruno; Lecoutre, Marie-Paule; Poitevineau, Jacques

    2010-01-01

    P. R. Killeen's (2005a) probability of replication ("p[subscript rep]") of an experimental result is the fiducial Bayesian predictive probability of finding a same-sign effect in a replication of an experiment. "p[subscript rep]" is now routinely reported in "Psychological Science" and has also begun to appear in…

  11. An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

  12. A Comprehensive Probability Project for the Upper Division One-Semester Probability Course Using Yahtzee

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Jason; Lawman, Joshua; Murphy, Rachael; Nelson, Marissa

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a probability project used in an upper division, one-semester probability course with third-semester calculus and linear algebra prerequisites. The student learning outcome focused on developing the skills necessary for approaching project-sized math/stat application problems. These skills include appropriately defining…

  13. You Say "Probable" and I Say "Likely": Improving Interpersonal Communication With Verbal Probability Phrases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karelitz, Tzur M.; Budescu, David V.

    2004-01-01

    When forecasters and decision makers describe uncertain events using verbal probability terms, there is a risk of miscommunication because people use different probability phrases and interpret them in different ways. In an effort to facilitate the communication process, the authors investigated various ways of converting the forecasters' verbal…

  14. Adding a visual linear scale probability to the PIOPED probability of pulmonary embolism.

    PubMed

    Christiansen, F; Nilsson, T; Måre, K; Carlsson, A

    1997-05-01

    Reporting a lung scintigraphy diagnosis as a PIOPED categorical probability of pulmonary embolism offers the clinician a wide range of interpretation. Therefore the purpose of this study was to analyze the impact on lung scintigraphy reporting of adding a visual linear scale (VLS) probability assessment to the ordinary PIOPED categorical probability. The study material was a re-evaluation of lung scintigrams from a prospective study of 170 patients. All patients had been examined by lung scintigraphy and pulmonary angiography. The scintigrams were re-evaluated by 3 raters, and the probability of pulmonary embolism was estimated by the PIOPED categorization and by a VLS probability. The test was repeated after 6 months. There was no significant difference (p > 0.05) in the area under the ROC curve between the PIOPED categorization and the VLS for any of the 3 raters. Analysis of agreement among raters and for repeatability demonstrated low agreement in the mid-range of probabilities. A VLS probability estimate did not significantly improve the overall accuracy of the diagnosis compared to the categorical PIOPED probability assessment alone. From the data of our present study we cannot recommend the addition of a VLS score to the PIOPED categorization.

  15. A Comprehensive Probability Project for the Upper Division One-Semester Probability Course Using Yahtzee

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Jason; Lawman, Joshua; Murphy, Rachael; Nelson, Marissa

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a probability project used in an upper division, one-semester probability course with third-semester calculus and linear algebra prerequisites. The student learning outcome focused on developing the skills necessary for approaching project-sized math/stat application problems. These skills include appropriately defining…

  16. Using High-Probability Foods to Increase the Acceptance of Low-Probability Foods

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meier, Aimee E.; Fryling, Mitch J.; Wallace, Michele D.

    2012-01-01

    Studies have evaluated a range of interventions to treat food selectivity in children with autism and related developmental disabilities. The high-probability instructional sequence is one intervention with variable results in this area. We evaluated the effectiveness of a high-probability sequence using 3 presentations of a preferred food on…

  17. Probability Map Viewer: near real-time probability map generator of serial block electron microscopy collections.

    PubMed

    Churas, Christopher; Perez, Alex J; Hakozaki, Hiroyuki; Wong, Willy; Lee, David; Peltier, Steven T; Ellisman, Mark H

    2017-10-01

    To expedite the review of semi-automated probability maps of organelles and other features from 3D electron microscopy data we have developed Probability Map Viewer, a Java-based web application that enables the computation and visualization of probability map generation results in near real-time as the data are being collected from the microscope. Probability Map Viewer allows the user to select one or more voxel classifiers, apply them on a sub-region of an active collection, and visualize the results as overlays on the raw data via any web browser using a personal computer or mobile device. Thus, Probability Map Viewer accelerates and informs the image analysis workflow by providing a tool for experimenting with and optimizing dataset-specific segmentation strategies during imaging. https://github.com/crbs/probabilitymapviewer. mellisman@ucsd.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  18. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    SciTech Connect

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-08-26

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  19. Volcano shapes, entropies, and eruption probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gudmundsson, Agust; Mohajeri, Nahid

    2014-05-01

    We propose that the shapes of polygenetic volcanic edifices reflect the shapes of the associated probability distributions of eruptions. In this view, the peak of a given volcanic edifice coincides roughly with the peak of the probability (or frequency) distribution of its eruptions. The broadness and slopes of the edifices vary widely, however. The shapes of volcanic edifices can be approximated by various distributions, either discrete (binning or histogram approximation) or continuous. For a volcano shape (profile) approximated by a normal curve, for example, the broadness would be reflected in its standard deviation (spread). Entropy (S) of a discrete probability distribution is a measure of the absolute uncertainty as to the next outcome/message: in this case, the uncertainty as to time and place of the next eruption. A uniform discrete distribution (all bins of equal height), representing a flat volcanic field or zone, has the largest entropy or uncertainty. For continuous distributions, we use differential entropy, which is a measure of relative uncertainty, or uncertainty change, rather than absolute uncertainty. Volcano shapes can be approximated by various distributions, from which the entropies and thus the uncertainties as regards future eruptions can be calculated. We use the Gibbs-Shannon formula for the discrete entropies and the analogues general formula for the differential entropies and compare their usefulness for assessing the probabilities of eruptions in volcanoes. We relate the entropies to the work done by the volcano during an eruption using the Helmholtz free energy. Many factors other than the frequency of eruptions determine the shape of a volcano. These include erosion, landslides, and the properties of the erupted materials (including their angle of repose). The exact functional relation between the volcano shape and the eruption probability distribution must be explored for individual volcanoes but, once established, can be used to

  20. Earthquake probabilities: theoretical assessments and reality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2013-12-01

    It is of common knowledge that earthquakes are complex phenomena which classification and sizing remain serious problems of the contemporary seismology. In general, their frequency-magnitude distribution exhibit power law scaling. This scaling differs significantly when different time and/or space domains are considered. At the scale of a particular earthquake rupture zone the frequency of similar size events is usually estimated to be about once in several hundred years. Evidently, contemporary seismology does not possess enough reported instrumental data for any reliable quantification of an earthquake probability at a given place of expected event. Regretfully, most of the state-of-the-art theoretical approaches to assess probability of seismic events are based on trivial (e.g. Poisson, periodic, etc) or, conversely, delicately-designed (e.g. STEP, ETAS, etc) models of earthquake sequences. Some of these models are evidently erroneous, some can be rejected by the existing statistics, and some are hardly testable in our life-time. Nevertheless such probabilistic counts including seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting when used on practice eventually mislead to scientifically groundless advices communicated to decision makers and inappropriate decisions. As a result, the population of seismic regions continues facing unexpected risk and losses. The international project Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is on the wrong track, if it continues to base seismic risk estimates on the standard, mainly probabilistic, methodology to assess seismic hazard. It is generally accepted that earthquakes are infrequent, low-probability events. However, they keep occurring at earthquake-prone areas with 100% certainty. Given the expectation of seismic event once per hundred years, the daily probability of occurrence on a certain date may range from 0 to 100% depending on a choice of probability space (which is yet unknown and, therefore, made by a subjective lucky chance

  1. Probability of identity by descent in metapopulations.

    PubMed Central

    Kaj, I; Lascoux, M

    1999-01-01

    Equilibrium probabilities of identity by descent (IBD), for pairs of genes within individuals, for genes between individuals within subpopulations, and for genes between subpopulations are calculated in metapopulation models with fixed or varying colony sizes. A continuous-time analog to the Moran model was used in either case. For fixed-colony size both propagule and migrant pool models were considered. The varying population size model is based on a birth-death-immigration (BDI) process, to which migration between colonies is added. Wright's F statistics are calculated and compared to previous results. Adding between-island migration to the BDI model can have an important effect on the equilibrium probabilities of IBD and on Wright's index. PMID:10388835

  2. A quantum probability perspective on borderline vagueness.

    PubMed

    Blutner, Reinhard; Pothos, Emmanuel M; Bruza, Peter

    2013-10-01

    The term "vagueness" describes a property of natural concepts, which normally have fuzzy boundaries, admit borderline cases, and are susceptible to Zeno's sorites paradox. We will discuss the psychology of vagueness, especially experiments investigating the judgment of borderline cases and contradictions. In the theoretical part, we will propose a probabilistic model that describes the quantitative characteristics of the experimental finding and extends Alxatib's and Pelletier's () theoretical analysis. The model is based on a Hopfield network for predicting truth values. Powerful as this classical perspective is, we show that it falls short of providing an adequate coverage of the relevant empirical results. In the final part, we will argue that a substantial modification of the analysis put forward by Alxatib and Pelletier and its probabilistic pendant is needed. The proposed modification replaces the standard notion of probabilities by quantum probabilities. The crucial phenomenon of borderline contradictions can be explained then as a quantum interference phenomenon.

  3. Approximate probability distributions of the master equation.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Philipp; Grima, Ramon

    2015-07-01

    Master equations are common descriptions of mesoscopic systems. Analytical solutions to these equations can rarely be obtained. We here derive an analytical approximation of the time-dependent probability distribution of the master equation using orthogonal polynomials. The solution is given in two alternative formulations: a series with continuous and a series with discrete support, both of which can be systematically truncated. While both approximations satisfy the system size expansion of the master equation, the continuous distribution approximations become increasingly negative and tend to oscillations with increasing truncation order. In contrast, the discrete approximations rapidly converge to the underlying non-Gaussian distributions. The theory is shown to lead to particularly simple analytical expressions for the probability distributions of molecule numbers in metabolic reactions and gene expression systems.

  4. Transit probabilities for debris around white dwarfs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, John Arban; Johnson, John A.

    2017-01-01

    The discovery of WD 1145+017 (Vanderburg et al. 2015), a metal-polluted white dwarf with an infrared-excess and transits confirmed the long held theory that at least some metal-polluted white dwarfs are actively accreting material from crushed up planetesimals. A statistical understanding of WD 1145-like systems would inform us on the various pathways for metal-pollution and the end states of planetary systems around medium- to high-mass stars. However, we only have one example and there are presently no published studies of transit detection/discovery probabilities for white dwarfs within this interesting regime. We present a preliminary look at the transit probabilities for metal-polluted white dwarfs and their projected space density in the Solar Neighborhood, which will inform future searches for analogs to WD 1145+017.

  5. Complex analysis methods in noncommutative probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teodor Belinschi, Serban

    2006-02-01

    In this thesis we study convolutions that arise from noncommutative probability theory. We prove several regularity results for free convolutions, and for measures in partially defined one-parameter free convolution semigroups. We discuss connections between Boolean and free convolutions and, in the last chapter, we prove that any infinitely divisible probability measure with respect to monotonic additive or multiplicative convolution belongs to a one-parameter semigroup with respect to the corresponding convolution. Earlier versions of some of the results in this thesis have already been published, while some others have been submitted for publication. We have preserved almost entirely the specific format for PhD theses required by Indiana University. This adds several unnecessary pages to the document, but we wanted to preserve the specificity of the document as a PhD thesis at Indiana University.

  6. Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

    2016-01-01

    While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.

  7. Cheating Probabilities on Multiple Choice Tests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rizzuto, Gaspard T.; Walters, Fred

    1997-10-01

    This paper is strictly based on mathematical statistics and as such does not depend on prior performance and assumes the probability of each choice to be identical. In a real life situation, the probability of two students having identical responses becomes larger the better the students are. However the mathematical model is developed for all responses, both correct and incorrect, and provides a baseline for evaluation. David Harpp and coworkers (2, 3) at McGill University have evaluated ratios of exact errors in common (EEIC) to errors in common (EIC) and differences (D). In pairings where the ratio EEIC/EIC was greater than 0.75, the pair had unusually high odds against their answer pattern being random. Detection of copying of the EEIC/D ratios at values >1.0 indicate that pairs of these students were seated adjacent to one another and copied from one another. The original papers should be examined for details.

  8. A probability sample of gay males.

    PubMed

    Harry, J

    1990-01-01

    Data are presented from a national probability sample of males interviewed by telephone and asked their sexual orientation. Of these males 3.7 percent reported that they were homosexual or bisexual. Homosexual/bisexual men were compared with heterosexual ones on the demographic variables. This sample produced larger numbers in those groups which appear to be underrepresented in the usual samples drawn from the gay world. These groups include those with little education, married men, older men, minorities, and those living in small towns. It is suggested that probability samples which do not draw directly or heavily from the gay world for homosexual respondents obtain a broader sampling of those having homosexual feelings or behaviors.

  9. Probability of Detection for Cooperative Sensor Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Feddema, J.T.; Spletzer, B.L.

    1999-03-26

    In this paper, the authors quantify how communication increases the effective range of detection of unattended ground sensors. Statistical analysis used to evaluate the probability of detection for multiple sensors using one, two, and infinite levels of cooperation. levels of cooperation are defined as the levels of communication between sensors. One level of cooperation means that one sensor passes its state information to several other sensors within a limited communication range, but this information is not passed beyond this range. Two levels of cooperation means that the state information received by this first set of sensors is relayed to another set of sensors within their communication range. Infinite levels of cooperation means that the state information is further percolated out to all sensors within a communicating group. With large numbers of sensors, every sensor will have state information about every other sensor regardless of communication range. With smaller numbers of sensors, isolated groups may form, thus lowering the probability of information transfer.

  10. Probability judgments of agency: rational or irrational?

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Thomas; Heumüller, Vera C

    2010-03-01

    We studied how people attribute action outcomes to their own actions under conditions of uncertainty. Participants chose between left and right keypresses to produce an action effect (a corresponding left or right light), while a computer player made a simultaneous keypress decision. In each trial, a random generator determined which of the players controlled the action effect at varying probabilities, and participants then judged which player had produced it. Participants' effect control ranged from 20% to 80%, varied blockwise, and they could use trial-by-trial feedback to optimize the accuracy of their agency judgments. Participants tended to attribute action effects to themselves (agency bias), probably reflecting a rational guessing strategy of always naming the more likely player. However, participants systematically neglected information favoring the computer player as the agent, even under conditions where this bias could only harm judgment accuracy. We conclude that agency biases have both rational and irrational components.

  11. A probability distribution model for rain rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kedem, Benjamin; Pavlopoulos, Harry; Guan, Xiaodong; Short, David A.

    1994-01-01

    A systematic approach is suggested for modeling the probability distribution of rain rate. Rain rate, conditional on rain and averaged over a region, is modeled as a temporally homogeneous diffusion process with appropiate boundary conditions. The approach requires a drift coefficient-conditional average instantaneous rate of change of rain intensity-as well as a diffusion coefficient-the conditional average magnitude of the rate of growth and decay of rain rate about its drift. Under certain assumptions on the drift and diffusion coefficients compatible with rain rate, a new parametric family-containing the lognormal distribution-is obtained for the continuous part of the stationary limit probability distribution. The family is fitted to tropical rainfall from Darwin and Florida, and it is found that the lognormal distribution provides adequate fits as compared with other members of the family and also with the gamma distribution.

  12. Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paielli, Russell A.; Erzberger, Heinz

    1996-01-01

    The safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction, however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict will occur, given a pair of predicted trajectories and their levels of uncertainty. A method is developed in this paper to estimate that conflict probability. The trajectory prediction errors are modeled as normally distributed, and the two error covariances for an aircraft pair are combined into a single equivalent covariance of the relative position. A coordinate transformation is then used to derive an analytical solution. Numerical examples and Monte Carlo validation are presented.

  13. Approximate probability distributions of the master equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Philipp; Grima, Ramon

    2015-07-01

    Master equations are common descriptions of mesoscopic systems. Analytical solutions to these equations can rarely be obtained. We here derive an analytical approximation of the time-dependent probability distribution of the master equation using orthogonal polynomials. The solution is given in two alternative formulations: a series with continuous and a series with discrete support, both of which can be systematically truncated. While both approximations satisfy the system size expansion of the master equation, the continuous distribution approximations become increasingly negative and tend to oscillations with increasing truncation order. In contrast, the discrete approximations rapidly converge to the underlying non-Gaussian distributions. The theory is shown to lead to particularly simple analytical expressions for the probability distributions of molecule numbers in metabolic reactions and gene expression systems.

  14. Computing association probabilities using parallel Boltzmann machines.

    PubMed

    Iltis, R A; Ting, P Y

    1993-01-01

    A new computational method is presented for solving the data association problem using parallel Boltzmann machines. It is shown that the association probabilities can be computed with arbitrarily small errors if a sufficient number of parallel Boltzmann machines are available. The probability beta(i)(j) that the i th measurement emanated from the jth target can be obtained simply by observing the relative frequency with which neuron v(i,j) in a two-dimensional network is on throughout the layers. Some simple tracking examples comparing the performance of the Boltzmann algorithm to the exact data association solution and with the performance of an alternative parallel method using the Hopfield neural network are also presented.

  15. Sampling probability distributions of lesions in mammograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Looney, P.; Warren, L. M.; Dance, D. R.; Young, K. C.

    2015-03-01

    One approach to image perception studies in mammography using virtual clinical trials involves the insertion of simulated lesions into normal mammograms. To facilitate this, a method has been developed that allows for sampling of lesion positions across the cranio-caudal and medio-lateral radiographic projections in accordance with measured distributions of real lesion locations. 6825 mammograms from our mammography image database were segmented to find the breast outline. The outlines were averaged and smoothed to produce an average outline for each laterality and radiographic projection. Lesions in 3304 mammograms with malignant findings were mapped on to a standardised breast image corresponding to the average breast outline using piecewise affine transforms. A four dimensional probability distribution function was found from the lesion locations in the cranio-caudal and medio-lateral radiographic projections for calcification and noncalcification lesions. Lesion locations sampled from this probability distribution function were mapped on to individual mammograms using a piecewise affine transform which transforms the average outline to the outline of the breast in the mammogram. The four dimensional probability distribution function was validated by comparing it to the two dimensional distributions found by considering each radiographic projection and laterality independently. The correlation of the location of the lesions sampled from the four dimensional probability distribution function across radiographic projections was shown to match the correlation of the locations of the original mapped lesion locations. The current system has been implemented as a web-service on a server using the Python Django framework. The server performs the sampling, performs the mapping and returns the results in a javascript object notation format.

  16. SureTrak Probability of Impact Display

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elliott, John

    2012-01-01

    The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display software was developed for use during rocket launch operations. The software displays probability of impact information for each ship near the hazardous area during the time immediately preceding the launch of an unguided vehicle. Wallops range safety officers need to be sure that the risk to humans is below a certain threshold during each use of the Wallops Flight Facility Launch Range. Under the variable conditions that can exist at launch time, the decision to launch must be made in a timely manner to ensure a successful mission while not exceeding those risk criteria. Range safety officers need a tool that can give them the needed probability of impact information quickly, and in a format that is clearly understandable. This application is meant to fill that need. The software is a reuse of part of software developed for an earlier project: Ship Surveillance Software System (S4). The S4 project was written in C++ using Microsoft Visual Studio 6. The data structures and dialog templates from it were copied into a new application that calls the implementation of the algorithms from S4 and displays the results as needed. In the S4 software, the list of ships in the area was received from one local radar interface and from operators who entered the ship information manually. The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display application receives ship data from two local radars as well as the SureTrak system, eliminating the need for manual data entry.

  17. Photon emission probabilities of 201Tl

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kawada, Y.; Hino, Y.; Gatot, W.

    1990-01-01

    Precise measurements of the gamma- and X-ray emission probabilities per decay of 201Tl have been performed using a photon spectrometer with a reverse electrode Ge coaxial detector (LO-AX). The source activity was determined by the 4πβ-γ coincidence technique, and the influence of the coincidence sum effects between the K X-rays and the gamma rays was assessed. Radioactive impurities such as 200Tl and 202Tl were also taken into account.

  18. Computational methods for probability of instability calculations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Y.-T.; Burnside, O. H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper summarizes the development of the methods and a computer program to compute the probability of instability of a dynamic system than can be represented by a system of second-order ordinary linear differential equations. Two instability criteria based upon the roots of the characteristics equation or Routh-Hurwitz test functions are investigated. Computational methods based on system reliability analysis methods and importance sampling concepts are proposed to perform efficient probabilistic analysis. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the methods.

  19. Probability Model for Designing Environment Condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubis, Iswar; Nasution Mahyuddin, K. M.

    2017-01-01

    Transport equipment has the potential to contribute to environmental pollution. The pollution impact on the welfare of the environment. Thus, the potential of the environment needs to be raised to block the pollution. A design based on probability models of the determining factors in the environment should be a concern. This paper aims to reveal the scenarios as the beginning to express the clues, and based on surveys have been had the ability to choose a design.

  20. The Origin of Probability and Entropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knuth, Kevin H.

    2008-11-01

    Measuring is the quantification of ordering. Thus the process of ordering elements of a set is a more fundamental activity than measuring. Order theory, also known as lattice theory, provides a firm foundation on which to build measure theory. The result is a set of new insights that cast probability theory and information theory in a new light, while simultaneously opening the door to a better understanding of measures as a whole.

  1. Continuum ionization transition probabilities of atomic oxygen

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Samson, J. A. R.; Petrosky, V. E.

    1974-01-01

    The technique of photoelectron spectroscopy was employed in the investigation. Atomic oxygen was produced in a microwave discharge operating at a power of 40 W and at a pressure of approximately 20 mtorr. The photoelectron spectrum of the oxygen with and without the discharge is shown. The atomic states can be clearly seen. In connection with the measurement of the probability for transitions into the various ionic states, the analyzer collection efficiency was determined as a function of electron energy.

  2. Unseated septifoil non-detection probability

    SciTech Connect

    Topp, S.V.

    1992-09-01

    The frequency that the Savannah River K-Reactor would proceed beyond hydraulic startup with a septifoil not properly seated is estimated in this report. It summarizes previous work on this subject, incorporates concerns about the utility of individual septifoil pressure measurements, and discusses two proposed techniques that could lower the non-detection probability to the point that this issue could be beyond Design Basis consideration.

  3. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  4. Probability and Statistics in Aerospace Engineering

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rheinfurth, M. H.; Howell, L. W.

    1998-01-01

    This monograph was prepared to give the practicing engineer a clear understanding of probability and statistics with special consideration to problems frequently encountered in aerospace engineering. It is conceived to be both a desktop reference and a refresher for aerospace engineers in government and industry. It could also be used as a supplement to standard texts for in-house training courses on the subject.

  5. Non-signalling Theories and Generalized Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tylec, Tomasz I.; Kuś, Marek; Krajczok, Jacek

    2016-09-01

    We provide mathematically rigorous justification of using term probability in connection to the so called non-signalling theories, known also as Popescu's and Rohrlich's box worlds. No only do we prove correctness of these models (in the sense that they describe composite system of two independent subsystems) but we obtain new properties of non-signalling boxes and expose new tools for further investigation. Moreover, it allows strightforward generalization to more complicated systems.

  6. Nuclear data uncertainties: I, Basic concepts of probability

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, D.L.

    1988-12-01

    Some basic concepts of probability theory are presented from a nuclear-data perspective, in order to provide a foundation for thorough understanding of the role of uncertainties in nuclear data research. Topics included in this report are: events, event spaces, calculus of events, randomness, random variables, random-variable distributions, intuitive and axiomatic probability, calculus of probability, conditional probability and independence, probability distributions, binomial and multinomial probability, Poisson and interval probability, normal probability, the relationships existing between these probability laws, and Bayes' theorem. This treatment emphasizes the practical application of basic mathematical concepts to nuclear data research, and it includes numerous simple examples. 34 refs.

  7. Severe hypokalemia probably associated with sertraline use.

    PubMed

    Izgi, Cemil; Erdem, Guliz; Mansuroglu, Denyan; Kurtoglu, Nuri; Kara, Mujdat; Gunesdogdu, Fusun

    2014-02-01

    To report a case of ventricular fibrillation caused by severe hypokalemia probably associated with sertraline use. A 48-year-old male patient experienced ventricular fibrillation and cardiac arrest 2 hours after an uneventful coronary angiography procedure, which revealed normal, unobstructed coronary arteries. Blood chemistry was immediately obtained, revealing a very low potassium (K+) level of 2.44 mEq/L. Other blood electrolytes, including magnesium, ECG, and corrected QT intervals, were all within normal limits. A thorough search for an etiology of hypokalemia, including adrenal gland causes, herbal product consumption, and toxic exposure, did not reveal any identifiable cause. This led us to consider the only drug he was on--sertraline 50 mg per day--as the possible culprit. There has been no clear identification of severe hypokalemia associated with sertraline use in the literature. However, there have been a considerable number of self-reported cases of hypokalemia in patients on sertraline therapy. Scoring according to the Naranjo adverse drug reaction scale revealed a probable relationship between severe hypokalemia and sertraline use in our patient. No clear pathogenic mechanism for the effect of sertraline on serum K equilibrium is known. However, considering the number of self-reported incidences and this case report, the effect of sertraline on serum K levels warrants consideration. This is the first documented case report of severe hypokalemia probably associated with sertraline use.

  8. Atomic Transition Probabilities for Rare Earths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curry, J. J.; Anderson, Heidi M.; den Hartog, E. A.; Wickliffe, M. E.; Lawler, J. E.

    1996-10-01

    Accurate absolute atomic transition probabilities for selected neutral and singly ionized rare earth elements including Tm, Dy, and Ho are being measured. The increasing use of rare earths in high intensity discharge lamps provides motivation; the data are needed for diagnosing and modeling the lamps. Radiative lifetimes, measured using time resolved laser induced fluorescence (LIF), are combined with branching fractions, measured using a large Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS), to determine accurate absolute atomic transition probabilities. More than 15,000 LIF decay curves from Tm and Dy atoms and ions in slow beams have been recorded and analyzed. Radiative lifetimes for 298 levels of TmI and TmII and for 450 levels of DyI and DyII are determined. Branching fractions are extracted from spectra recorded using the 1.0 m FTS at the National Solar Observatory. Branching fractions and absolute transition probabilities for 500 of the strongest TmI and TmII lines are complete. Representative lifetime and branching fraction data will be presented and discussed. Supported by Osram Sylvania Inc. and the NSF.

  9. Probability of metastable states in Yukawa clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ludwig, Patrick; Kaehlert, Hanno; Baumgartner, Henning; Bonitz, Michael

    2008-11-01

    Finite strongly coupled systems of charged particles in external traps are of high interest in many fields. Here we analyze the occurrence probabilities of ground- and metastable states of spherical, three-dimensional Yukawa clusters by means of molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations and an analytical method. We find that metastable states can occur with a higher probability than the ground state, thus confirming recent dusty plasma experiments with so-called Yukawa balls [1]. The analytical method [2], based on the harmonic approximation of the potential energy, allows for a very intuitive explanation of the probabilities when combined with the simulation results [3].[1] D. Block, S. Käding, A. Melzer, A. Piel, H. Baumgartner, and M. Bonitz, Physics of Plasmas 15, 040701 (2008)[2] F. Baletto and R. Ferrando, Reviews of Modern Physics 77, 371 (2005)[3] H. Kählert, P. Ludwig, H. Baumgartner, M. Bonitz, D. Block, S. Käding, A. Melzer, and A. Piel, submitted for publication (2008)

  10. A Quantum Probability Model of Causal Reasoning

    PubMed Central

    Trueblood, Jennifer S.; Busemeyer, Jerome R.

    2012-01-01

    People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause) with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect). The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment. PMID:22593747

  11. The Probability Distribution of Daily Streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blum, A.; Vogel, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Flow duration curves (FDCs) are a graphical illustration of the cumulative distribution of streamflow. Daily streamflows often range over many orders of magnitude, making it extremely challenging to find a probability distribution function (pdf) which can mimic the steady state or period of record FDC (POR-FDC). Median annual FDCs (MA-FDCs) describe the pdf of daily streamflow in a typical year. For POR- and MA-FDCs, Lmoment diagrams, visual assessments of FDCs and Quantile-Quantile probability plot correlation coefficients are used to evaluate goodness of fit (GOF) of candidate probability distributions. FDCs reveal that both four-parameter kappa (KAP) and three-parameter generalized Pareto (GP3) models result in very high GOF for the MA-FDC and a relatively lower GOF for POR-FDCs at over 500 rivers across the coterminous U.S. Physical basin characteristics, such as baseflow index as well as hydroclimatic indices such as the aridity index and the runoff ratio are found to be correlated with one of the shape parameters (kappa) of the KAP and GP3 pdfs. Our work also reveals several important areas for future research including improved parameter estimators for the KAP pdf, as well as increasing our understanding of the conditions which give rise to improved GOF of analytical pdfs to large samples of daily streamflows.

  12. Atomic Transition Probabilities in TiI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitz, David E.; Siewert, Lowell K.; Schneider, Matthew N.

    2001-05-01

    We have measured branching fractions and atomic transition probabilities in TiI for 50 visible and near-IR transitions which connect odd-parity levels lying 25000 cm-1 to 27000 cm-1 above the ground state to low-lying even parity levels. Branching fractions are obtained from the analysis of six hollow cathode emission spectra recorded using the Fourier transform spectrometer at the National Solar Observatory, supplemented in cases susceptible to radiation-trapping problems by conventional emission spectroscopy using a commercial sealed lamp operated at very low discharge current. The absolute scale for normalizing the branching fractions is established using radiative lifetimes from time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence measurements.(S. Salih and J.E. Lawler, Astronomy and Astrophysics 239, 407 (1990).) Uncertainties of the transition probabilities range from ±5% for the stronger branches to ±20% for the weaker ones. Among the 16 lines for which previously-measured transition probabilities are listed in the NIST critical compilation,(G. A. Martin, J. R. Fuhr, and W. L. Wiese, J. Phys. Chem. Ref. Data 17, Suppl. 3, 85 (1988).) several significant discrepancies are noted.

  13. Classical probabilities for Majorana and Weyl spinors

    SciTech Connect

    Wetterich, C.

    2011-08-15

    Highlights: > Map of classical statistical Ising model to fermionic quantum field theory. > Lattice-regularized real Grassmann functional integral for single Weyl spinor. > Emerging complex structure characteristic for quantum physics. > A classical statistical ensemble describes a quantum theory. - Abstract: We construct a map between the quantum field theory of free Weyl or Majorana fermions and the probability distribution of a classical statistical ensemble for Ising spins or discrete bits. More precisely, a Grassmann functional integral based on a real Grassmann algebra specifies the time evolution of the real wave function q{sub {tau}}(t) for the Ising states {tau}. The time dependent probability distribution of a generalized Ising model obtains as p{sub {tau}}(t)=q{sub {tau}}{sup 2}(t). The functional integral employs a lattice regularization for single Weyl or Majorana spinors. We further introduce the complex structure characteristic for quantum mechanics. Probability distributions of the Ising model which correspond to one or many propagating fermions are discussed explicitly. Expectation values of observables can be computed equivalently in the classical statistical Ising model or in the quantum field theory for fermions.

  14. Theoretical Analysis of Rain Attenuation Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, Surendra Kr.; Jha, Santosh Kr.; Jha, Lallan

    2007-07-01

    Satellite communication technologies are now highly developed and high quality, distance-independent services have expanded over a very wide area. As for the system design of the Hokkaido integrated telecommunications(HIT) network, it must first overcome outages of satellite links due to rain attenuation in ka frequency bands. In this paper theoretical analysis of rain attenuation probability on a slant path has been made. The formula proposed is based Weibull distribution and incorporates recent ITU-R recommendations concerning the necessary rain rates and rain heights inputs. The error behaviour of the model was tested with the loading rain attenuation prediction model recommended by ITU-R for large number of experiments at different probability levels. The novel slant path rain attenuastion prediction model compared to the ITU-R one exhibits a similar behaviour at low time percentages and a better root-mean-square error performance for probability levels above 0.02%. The set of presented models exhibits the advantage of implementation with little complexity and is considered useful for educational and back of the envelope computations.

  15. A quantum probability model of causal reasoning.

    PubMed

    Trueblood, Jennifer S; Busemeyer, Jerome R

    2012-01-01

    People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause) with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect). The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

  16. Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

    Treesearch

    Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

    2004-01-01

    We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

  17. Instability of Wave Trains and Wave Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babanin, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    Centre for Ocean Engineering, Science and Technology, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia, ababanin@swin.edu.au Design criteria in ocean engineering, whether this is one in 50 years or one in 5000 years event, are hardly ever based on measurements, and rather on statistical distributions of relevant metocean properties. Of utmost interest is the tail of distribution, that is rare events such as the highest waves with low probability. Engineers have long since realised that the superposition of linear waves with narrow-banded spectrum as depicted by the Rayleigh distribution underestimates the probability of extreme wave heights and crests, which is a critical shortcoming as far as the engineering design is concerned. Ongoing theoretical and experimental efforts have been under way for decades to address this issue. Typical approach is the treating all possible waves in the ocean or at a particular location as a single ensemble for which some comprehensive solution can be obtained. The oceanographic knowledge, however, now indicates that no single and united comprehensive solution is available. We would expect the probability distributions of wave height to depend on a) whether the waves are at the spectral peak or at the tail; b) on wave spectrum and mean steepness in the wave field; c) on the directional distribution of the peak waves; d) on whether the waves are in deep water, in intermediate depth or in shallow water; e) on wave breaking; f) on the wind, particularly if it is very strong, and on the currents if they have suitable horizontal gradients. Probability distributions in the different circumstances according to these groups of conditions should be different, and by combining them together the inevitable scatter is introduced. The scatter and the accuracy will not improve by increasing the bulk data quality and quantity, and it hides the actual distribution of extremes. The groups have to be separated and their probability

  18. The probability and severity of decompression sickness.

    PubMed

    Howle, Laurens E; Weber, Paul W; Hada, Ethan A; Vann, Richard D; Denoble, Petar J

    2017-01-01

    Decompression sickness (DCS), which is caused by inert gas bubbles in tissues, is an injury of concern for scuba divers, compressed air workers, astronauts, and aviators. Case reports for 3322 air and N2-O2 dives, resulting in 190 DCS events, were retrospectively analyzed and the outcomes were scored as (1) serious neurological, (2) cardiopulmonary, (3) mild neurological, (4) pain, (5) lymphatic or skin, and (6) constitutional or nonspecific manifestations. Following standard U.S. Navy medical definitions, the data were grouped into mild-Type I (manifestations 4-6)-and serious-Type II (manifestations 1-3). Additionally, we considered an alternative grouping of mild-Type A (manifestations 3-6)-and serious-Type B (manifestations 1 and 2). The current U.S. Navy guidance allows for a 2% probability of mild DCS and a 0.1% probability of serious DCS. We developed a hierarchical trinomial (3-state) probabilistic DCS model that simultaneously predicts the probability of mild and serious DCS given a dive exposure. Both the Type I/II and Type A/B discriminations of mild and serious DCS resulted in a highly significant (p < 0.01) improvement in trinomial model fit over the binomial (2-state) model. With the Type I/II definition, we found that the predicted probability of 'mild' DCS resulted in a longer allowable bottom time for the same 2% limit. However, for the 0.1% serious DCS limit, we found a vastly decreased allowable bottom dive time for all dive depths. If the Type A/B scoring was assigned to outcome severity, the no decompression limits (NDL) for air dives were still controlled by the acceptable serious DCS risk limit rather than the acceptable mild DCS risk limit. However, in this case, longer NDL limits were allowed than with the Type I/II scoring. The trinomial model mild and serious probabilities agree reasonably well with the current air NDL only with the Type A/B scoring and when 0.2% risk of serious DCS is allowed.

  19. The probability and severity of decompression sickness

    PubMed Central

    Hada, Ethan A.; Vann, Richard D.; Denoble, Petar J.

    2017-01-01

    Decompression sickness (DCS), which is caused by inert gas bubbles in tissues, is an injury of concern for scuba divers, compressed air workers, astronauts, and aviators. Case reports for 3322 air and N2-O2 dives, resulting in 190 DCS events, were retrospectively analyzed and the outcomes were scored as (1) serious neurological, (2) cardiopulmonary, (3) mild neurological, (4) pain, (5) lymphatic or skin, and (6) constitutional or nonspecific manifestations. Following standard U.S. Navy medical definitions, the data were grouped into mild—Type I (manifestations 4–6)–and serious–Type II (manifestations 1–3). Additionally, we considered an alternative grouping of mild–Type A (manifestations 3–6)–and serious–Type B (manifestations 1 and 2). The current U.S. Navy guidance allows for a 2% probability of mild DCS and a 0.1% probability of serious DCS. We developed a hierarchical trinomial (3-state) probabilistic DCS model that simultaneously predicts the probability of mild and serious DCS given a dive exposure. Both the Type I/II and Type A/B discriminations of mild and serious DCS resulted in a highly significant (p << 0.01) improvement in trinomial model fit over the binomial (2-state) model. With the Type I/II definition, we found that the predicted probability of ‘mild’ DCS resulted in a longer allowable bottom time for the same 2% limit. However, for the 0.1% serious DCS limit, we found a vastly decreased allowable bottom dive time for all dive depths. If the Type A/B scoring was assigned to outcome severity, the no decompression limits (NDL) for air dives were still controlled by the acceptable serious DCS risk limit rather than the acceptable mild DCS risk limit. However, in this case, longer NDL limits were allowed than with the Type I/II scoring. The trinomial model mild and serious probabilities agree reasonably well with the current air NDL only with the Type A/B scoring and when 0.2% risk of serious DCS is allowed. PMID:28296928

  20. ParaDIS_lib

    SciTech Connect

    Cook, Richard D.

    2016-05-25

    The ParaDIS_lib software is a project that is funded by the DOE ASC Program. Its purpose is to provide visualization and analysis capabilities for the existing ParaDIS parallel dislocation dynamics simulation code.

  1. Empirical Probabilities for Rupture Steps and Terminations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biasi, G. P.; Wesnousky, S. G.

    2011-12-01

    We used a database of 22 historical strike-slip ruptures to investigate the relationship of geometric steps and fault terminations to rupture extent and configuration. For seismic hazard applications the question might be stated as, Given a ground-rupturing earthquake in some location, what can we say about the likely rupture extent from information available a priori about the fault location and geometry? We approached this data set from two related directions. First, we counted only steps of 1 km or greater distance internal to the rupture. In the second approach we also counted steps and fault terminations at the ends of ruptures, as these also comprise part of the (often) available a priori information. Under method 1 we used 22 strike-slip ruptures. Of these, four had three steps, two had two steps, seven had one step, and nine had none. Interestingly, when the number of steps per rupture is plotted versus rupture length, we do not see a correlation favoring more steps in longer ruptures. One interpretation of this lack of correlation is that faults that accommodate long ruptures have "worked out" many of the geometric discontinuities that may have been present when the fault first developed. Similar conclusions have been suggested from comparisons of increasing fault simplicity with total offset on the fault. As a simple fraction, 13 of 22 ruptures in our sample have at least one step in them. To provide a more quantitative estimate, we modeled these data with Geometric and Poisson probability distribution functions. With the Poisson distribution, the number of steps in a rupture is considered random with a frequency per rupture of about one. The Geometric distribution has a somewhat more physical motivation. Steps can be interpreted as threshold structures crossed with some probability. As each is crossed, the next step has the same probability of stopping the rupture. The best fit parameters put this probability very close to 50%, so the number of steps in

  2. CPROB: A COMPUTATIONAL TOOL FOR CONDUCTING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Conditional probability analysis measures the probability of observing one event given that another event has occurred. In an environmental context, conditional probability analysis helps assess the association between an environmental contaminant (i.e. the stressor) and the ec...

  3. CPROB: A COMPUTATIONAL TOOL FOR CONDUCTING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Conditional probability analysis measures the probability of observing one event given that another event has occurred. In an environmental context, conditional probability analysis helps assess the association between an environmental contaminant (i.e. the stressor) and the ec...

  4. Variance comparisons for unbiased estimators of probability of correct classification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, D. S.; Landgrebe, D. A.; Whitsitt, S. J.

    1976-01-01

    Variance relationships among certain count estimators and posterior probability estimators of probability of correct classification are investigated. An estimator using posterior probabilities is presented for use in stratified sampling designs. A test case involving three normal classes is examined.

  5. Probability sampling in legal cases: Kansas cellphone users

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadane, Joseph B.

    2012-10-01

    Probability sampling is a standard statistical technique. This article introduces the basic ideas of probability sampling, and shows in detail how probability sampling was used in a particular legal case.

  6. Transit probabilities in secularly evolving planetary systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Read, Matthew J.; Wyatt, Mark C.; Triaud, Amaury H. M. J.

    2017-07-01

    This paper considers whether the population of known transiting exoplanets provides evidence for additional outer planets on inclined orbits, due to the perturbing effect of such planets on the orbits of inner planets. As such, we develop a semi-analytical method for calculating the probability that two mutually inclined planets are observed to transit. We subsequently derive a simplified analytical form to describe how the mutual inclination between two planets evolves due to secular interactions with a wide orbit inclined planet and use this to determine the mean probability that the two inner planets are observed to transit. From application to Kepler-48 and HD-106315, we constrain the inclinations of the outer planets in these systems (known from radial velocity). We also apply this work to the so-called Kepler Dichotomy, which describes the excess of single transiting systems observed by Kepler. We find three different ways of explaining this dichotomy: Some systems could be inherently single, some multiplanet systems could have inherently large mutual inclinations, while some multiplanet systems could cyclically attain large mutual inclinations through interaction with an inclined outer planet. We show how the different mechanisms can be combined to fit the observed populations of Kepler systems with one and two transiting planets. We also show how the distribution of mutual inclinations of transiting two-planet systems constrains the fraction of two-planet systems that have perturbing outer planets, since such systems should be preferentially discovered by Kepler when the inner planets are coplanar due to an increased transit probability.

  7. Bacteria survival probability in bactericidal filter paper.

    PubMed

    Mansur-Azzam, Nura; Hosseinidoust, Zeinab; Woo, Su Gyeong; Vyhnalkova, Renata; Eisenberg, Adi; van de Ven, Theo G M

    2014-05-01

    Bactericidal filter papers offer the simplicity of gravity filtration to simultaneously eradicate microbial contaminants and particulates. We previously detailed the development of biocidal block copolymer micelles that could be immobilized on a filter paper to actively eradicate bacteria. Despite the many advantages offered by this system, its widespread use is hindered by its unknown mechanism of action which can result in non-reproducible outcomes. In this work, we sought to investigate the mechanism by which a certain percentage of Escherichia coli cells survived when passing through the bactericidal filter paper. Through the process of elimination, the possibility that the bacterial survival probability was controlled by the initial bacterial load or the existence of resistant sub-populations of E. coli was dismissed. It was observed that increasing the thickness or the number of layers of the filter significantly decreased bacterial survival probability for the biocidal filter paper but did not affect the efficiency of the blank filter paper (no biocide). The survival probability of bacteria passing through the antibacterial filter paper appeared to depend strongly on the number of collision between each bacterium and the biocide-loaded micelles. It was thus hypothesized that during each collision a certain number of biocide molecules were directly transferred from the hydrophobic core of the micelle to the bacterial lipid bilayer membrane. Therefore, each bacterium must encounter a certain number of collisions to take up enough biocide to kill the cell and cells that do not undergo the threshold number of collisions are expected to survive. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Estimating the exceedance probability of extreme rainfalls up to the probable maximum precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nathan, Rory; Jordan, Phillip; Scorah, Matthew; Lang, Simon; Kuczera, George; Schaefer, Melvin; Weinmann, Erwin

    2016-12-01

    If risk-based criteria are used in the design of high hazard structures (such as dam spillways and nuclear power stations), then it is necessary to estimate the annual exceedance probability (AEP) of extreme rainfalls up to and including the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). This paper describes the development and application of two largely independent methods to estimate the frequencies of such extreme rainfalls. One method is based on stochastic storm transposition (SST), which combines the ;arrival; and ;transposition; probabilities of an extreme storm using the total probability theorem. The second method, based on ;stochastic storm regression; (SSR), combines frequency curves of point rainfalls with regression estimates of local and transposed areal rainfalls; rainfall maxima are generated by stochastically sampling the independent variates, where the required exceedance probabilities are obtained using the total probability theorem. The methods are applied to two large catchments (with areas of 3550 km2 and 15,280 km2) located in inland southern Australia. Both methods were found to provide similar estimates of the frequency of extreme areal rainfalls for the two study catchments. The best estimates of the AEP of the PMP for the smaller and larger of the catchments were found to be 10-7 and 10-6, respectively, but the uncertainty of these estimates spans one to two orders of magnitude. Additionally, the SST method was applied to a range of locations within a meteorologically homogenous region to investigate the nature of the relationship between the AEP of PMP and catchment area.

  9. Modulation Based on Probability Density Functions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Glenn L.

    2009-01-01

    A proposed method of modulating a sinusoidal carrier signal to convey digital information involves the use of histograms representing probability density functions (PDFs) that characterize samples of the signal waveform. The method is based partly on the observation that when a waveform is sampled (whether by analog or digital means) over a time interval at least as long as one half cycle of the waveform, the samples can be sorted by frequency of occurrence, thereby constructing a histogram representing a PDF of the waveform during that time interval.

  10. Atomic transition probabilities of Gd i

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawler, J. E.; Bilty, K. A.; Den Hartog, E. A.

    2011-05-01

    Fourier transform spectra are used to determine emission branching fractions for 1290 lines of the first spectrum of gadolinium (Gd i). These branching fractions are converted to absolute atomic transition probabilities using previously reported radiative lifetimes from time-resolved laser-induced-fluorescence measurements (Den Hartog et al 2011 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 44 055001). The wavelength range of the data set is from 300 to 1850 nm. A least squares technique for separating blends of the first and second spectra lines is also described and demonstrated in this work.

  11. Atomic transition probabilities of Er i

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawler, J. E.; Wyart, J.-F.; Den Hartog, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Atomic transition probabilities for 562 lines of the first spectrum of erbium (Er i) are reported. These data are from new branching fraction measurements on Fourier transform spectra normalized with previously reported radiative lifetimes from time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence measurements (Den Hartog et al 2010 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 43 155004). The wavelength range of the data set is from 298 to 1981 nm. In this work we explore the utility of parametric fits based on the Cowan code in assessing branching fraction errors due to lines connecting to unobserved lower levels.

  12. Elemental mercury poisoning probably causes cortical myoclonus.

    PubMed

    Ragothaman, Mona; Kulkarni, Girish; Ashraf, Valappil V; Pal, Pramod K; Chickabasavaiah, Yasha; Shankar, Susarla K; Govindappa, Srikanth S; Satishchandra, Parthasarthy; Muthane, Uday B

    2007-10-15

    Mercury toxicity causes postural tremors, commonly referred to as "mercurial tremors," and cerebellar dysfunction. A 23-year woman, 2 years after injecting herself with elemental mercury developed disabling generalized myoclonus and ataxia. Electrophysiological studies confirmed the myoclonus was probably of cortical origin. Her deficits progressed over 2 years and improved after subcutaneous mercury deposits at the injection site were surgically cleared. Myoclonus of cortical origin has never been described in mercury poisoning. It is important to ask patients presenting with jerks about exposure to elemental mercury even if they have a progressive illness, as it is a potentially reversible condition as in our patient.

  13. Probability-based TCP congestion control mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Changbiao; Yang, Shizhong; Xian, Yongju

    2005-11-01

    To mitigate TCP global synchronization and improve network throughput, an improved TCP congestion control mechanism is proposed, namely P-TCP, which adopts the probability-based way to adjust congestion window independently when the network occurs congestion. Therefore, some P-TCP connections may decrease the congestion window greatly while other P-TCP connections may decrease the congestion window lightly. Simulation results show that TCP global synchronization can be effectively mitigated, which leads to efficient utilization of network resources as well as the effective mitigation for network congestion. Simulation results also give some valuable references for determining the related parameters in P-TCP.

  14. The Prediction of Spatial Aftershock Probabilities (PRESAP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCloskey, J.

    2003-12-01

    It is now widely accepted that the goal of deterministic earthquake prediction is unattainable in the short term and may even be forbidden by nonlinearity in the generating dynamics. This nonlinearity does not, however, preclude the estimation of earthquake probability and, in particular, how this probability might change in space and time; earthquake hazard estimation might be possible in the absence of earthquake prediction. Recently, there has been a major development in the understanding of stress triggering of earthquakes which allows accurate calculation of the spatial variation of aftershock probability following any large earthquake. Over the past few years this Coulomb stress technique (CST) has been the subject of intensive study in the geophysics literature and has been extremely successful in explaining the spatial distribution of aftershocks following several major earthquakes. The power of current micro-computers, the great number of local, telemeter seismic networks, the rapid acquisition of data from satellites coupled with the speed of modern telecommunications and data transfer all mean that it may be possible that these new techniques could be applied in a forward sense. In other words, it is theoretically possible today to make predictions of the likely spatial distribution of aftershocks in near-real-time following a large earthquake. Approximate versions of such predictions could be available within, say, 0.1 days after the mainshock and might be continually refined and updated over the next 100 days. The European Commission has recently provided funding for a project to assess the extent to which it is currently possible to move CST predictions into a practically useful time frame so that low-confidence estimates of aftershock probability might be made within a few hours of an event and improved in near-real-time, as data of better quality become available over the following day to tens of days. Specifically, the project aim is to assess the

  15. Probability density functions in turbulent channel flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dinavahi, Surya P. G.

    1992-01-01

    The probability density functions (pdf's) of the fluctuating velocity components, as well as their first and second derivatives, are calculated using data from the direct numerical simulations (DNS) of fully developed turbulent channel flow. It is observed that, beyond the buffer region, the pdf of each of these quantities is independent of the distance from the channel wall. It is further observed that, beyond the buffer region, the pdf's for all the first derivatives collapse onto a single universal curve and those of the second derivatives also collapse onto another universal curve, irrespective of the distance from the wall. The kinetic-energy dissipation rate exhibits log normal behavior.

  16. Probable interaction between trazodone and carbamazepine.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Romero, A; Mayordomo-Aranda, A; García-Delgado, R; Durán-Quintana, J A

    2011-06-01

    The need to maintain long-term treatment of chronic pathologies makes the appearance of interactions possible when such therapies incorporate other drugs to deal with the aggravation of the same or other intercurrent pathologies. A case is presented in which the addition of trazodone to a chronic treatment with carbamazepine (CBZ) is associated with symptoms typical for intoxication by this antiepileptic, accompanied by a raised serum concentration. When the trazodone was suspended, these symptoms lessened and the concentration of CBZ decreased progressively, suggesting a probable interaction between the 2 drugs.

  17. Attractor's capture probability in nonlinear argumental oscillators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cintra, Daniel; Argoul, Pierre

    2017-07-01

    The behavior of a space-modulated, so-called "argumental" Duffing oscillator, is studied. Starting from a known analytic implicit solution to the equations of motion, and using a Van der Pol representation in the (amplitude, phase)-space, the shape and distribution of the attractors' upstream basins are discussed, and various capture probabilities by the attractors are assessed under symbolic form. The expressions obtained can help in the design of structures in mechanical engineering, where most often the argumental phenomenon is to be avoided.

  18. Estimating flood exceedance probabilities in estuarine regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Flood events in estuarine regions can arise from the interaction of extreme rainfall and storm surge. Determining flood level exceedance probabilities in these regions is complicated by the dependence of these processes for extreme events. A comprehensive study of tide and rainfall gauges along the Australian coastline was conducted to determine the dependence of these extremes using a bivariate logistic threshold-excess model. The dependence strength is shown to vary as a function of distance over many hundreds of kilometres indicating that the dependence arises due to synoptic scale meteorological forcings. It is also shown to vary as a function of storm burst duration, time lag between the extreme rainfall and the storm surge event. The dependence estimates are then used with a bivariate design variable method to determine flood risk in estuarine regions for a number of case studies. Aspects of the method demonstrated in the case studies include, the resolution and range of the hydraulic response table, fitting of probability distributions, computational efficiency, uncertainty, potential variation in marginal distributions due to climate change, and application to two dimensional output from hydraulic models. Case studies are located on the Swan River (Western Australia), Nambucca River and Hawkesbury Nepean River (New South Wales).

  19. Probabilistic description of probable maximum precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben Alaya, Mohamed Ali; Zwiers, Francis W.; Zhang, Xuebin

    2017-04-01

    Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the key parameter used to estimate probable Maximum Flood (PMF). PMP and PMF are important for dam safety and civil engineering purposes. Even if the current knowledge of storm mechanisms remains insufficient to properly evaluate limiting values of extreme precipitation, PMP estimation methods are still based on deterministic consideration, and give only single values. This study aims to provide a probabilistic description of the PMP based on the commonly used method, the so-called moisture maximization. To this end, a probabilistic bivariate extreme values model is proposed to address the limitations of traditional PMP estimates via moisture maximization namely: (i) the inability to evaluate uncertainty and to provide a range PMP values, (ii) the interpretation that a maximum of a data series as a physical upper limit (iii) and the assumption that a PMP event has maximum moisture availability. Results from simulation outputs of the Canadian Regional Climate Model CanRCM4 over North America reveal the high uncertainties inherent in PMP estimates and the non-validity of the assumption that PMP events have maximum moisture availability. This later assumption leads to overestimation of the PMP by an average of about 15% over North America, which may have serious implications for engineering design.

  20. Probability methods applied to electric power systems

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1989-11-01

    The roots of understanding probabilistic phenomena go back to antiquity. We have been willing to bet our money on the roll of dice or similar events for centuries. Yet, when it comes to betting our lives or livelihood, we have been slow to adapt probabilistic methods to describe uncertainty. As a matter of fact, we are loath to admit a probability of failure when it comes to such structures as bridges, buildings or airplanes. Electric utility engineers the world over realize that reliability of structures and systems can be improved and money can be saved if we use a more enlightened approach to uncertainty. The technology and analytical power that is now being made available to the working engineer make that possible. It is for this reason, the International Council on Probability Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) was formed in 1985. It is important that engineers have a forum for exchange of knowledge and ideas on subjects related to describing and coping with uncertainty. As the world becomes more complex and demands increase, it is the engineers lot to make the most efficient use possible of scarce resources. The papers contained within this document cover the design and analysis of transmission components, systems analysis and reliability assessment, testing of power components, systems operations planning and probabilistic analysis, power distribution systems, cost, and mathematical modeling. The individual papers have been individually cataloged and indexed.

  1. Computation-distributed probability hypothesis density filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Junjie; Zhao, Lingling; Su, Xiaohong; Shi, Chunmei; Ma, JiQuan

    2016-12-01

    Particle probability hypothesis density filtering has become a promising approach for multi-target tracking due to its capability of handling an unknown and time-varying number of targets in a nonlinear, non-Gaussian system. However, its computational complexity linearly increases with the number of obtained observations and the number of particles, which can be very time consuming, particularly when numerous targets and clutter exist in the surveillance region. To address this issue, we present a distributed computation particle probability hypothesis density(PHD) filter for target tracking. It runs several local decomposed particle PHD filters in parallel while processing elements. Each processing element takes responsibility for a portion of particles but all measurements and provides local estimates. A central unit controls particle exchange among the processing elements and specifies a fusion rule to match and fuse the estimates from different local filters. The proposed framework is suitable for parallel implementation. Simulations verify that the proposed method can significantly accelerate and maintain a comparative accuracy compared to the standard particle PHD filter.

  2. Measures, Probability and Holography in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Daniel

    This dissertation compiles four research projects on predicting values for cosmological parameters and models of the universe on the broadest scale. The first examines the Causal Entropic Principle (CEP) in inhomogeneous cosmologies. The CEP aims to predict the unexpectedly small value of the cosmological constant Lambda using a weighting by entropy increase on causal diamonds. The original work assumed a purely isotropic and homogeneous cosmology. But even the level of inhomogeneity observed in our universe forces reconsideration of certain arguments about entropy production. In particular, we must consider an ensemble of causal diamonds associated with each background cosmology and we can no longer immediately discard entropy production in the far future of the universe. Depending on our choices for a probability measure and our treatment of black hole evaporation, the prediction for Lambda may be left intact or dramatically altered. The second related project extends the CEP to universes with curvature. We have found that curvature values larger than rho k = 40rhom are disfavored by more than $99.99% and a peak value at rhoLambda = 7.9 x 10-123 and rhok =4.3rho m for open universes. For universes that allow only positive curvature or both positive and negative curvature, we find a correlation between curvature and dark energy that leads to an extended region of preferred values. Our universe is found to be disfavored to an extent depending the priors on curvature. We also provide a comparison to previous anthropic constraints on open universes and discuss future directions for this work. The third project examines how cosmologists should formulate basic questions of probability. We argue using simple models that all successful practical uses of probabilities originate in quantum fluctuations in the microscopic physical world around us, often propagated to macroscopic scales. Thus we claim there is no physically verified fully classical theory of probability. We

  3. Risks and probabilities of breast cancer: short-term versus lifetime probabilities.

    PubMed Central

    Bryant, H E; Brasher, P M

    1994-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To calculate age-specific short-term and lifetime probabilities of breast cancer among a cohort of Canadian women. DESIGN: Double decrement life table. SETTING: Alberta. SUBJECTS: Women with first invasive breast cancers registered with the Alberta Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime probability of breast cancer from birth and for women at various ages; short-term (up to 10 years) probability of breast cancer for women at various ages. RESULTS: The lifetime probability of breast cancer is 10.17% at birth and peaks at 10.34% at age 25 years, after which it decreases owing to a decline in the number of years over which breast cancer risk will be experienced. However, the probability of manifesting breast cancer in the next year increases steadily from the age of 30 onward, reaching 0.36% at 85 years. The probability of manifesting the disease within the next 10 years peaks at 2.97% at age 70 and decreases thereafter, again owing to declining probabilities of surviving the interval. CONCLUSIONS: Given that the incidence of breast cancer among Albertan women during the study period was similar to the national average, we conclude that currently more than 1 in 10 women in Canada can expect to have breast cancer at some point during their life. However, risk varies considerably over a woman's lifetime, with most risk concentrated after age 49. On the basis of the shorter-term age-specific risks that we present, the clinician can put breast cancer risk into perspective for younger women and heighten awareness among women aged 50 years or more. PMID:8287343

  4. Not All Probabilities Are Equivalent: Evidence From Orientation Versus Spatial Probability Learning.

    PubMed

    Jabar, Syaheed B; Anderson, Britt

    2017-02-23

    Frequently targets are detected faster, probable locations searched earlier, and likely orientations estimated more precisely. Are these all consequences of a single, domain-general "attentional" effect? To examine this issue, participants were shown brief instances of spatial gratings, and were tasked to draw their location and orientation. Unknown to participants, either the location or orientation probability of these gratings were manipulated. While orientation probability affected the precision of orientation reports, spatial probability did not. Further, utilising lowered stimulus contrast (via a staircase procedure) and a combination of behavioral precision and confidence self-report, we clustered trials with perceived stimuli from trials where the target was not detected: Spatial probability only modulated the likelihood of stimulus detection, but not did not modulate perceptual precision. Even when no physical attentional cues are present, acquired probabilistic information on space versus orientation leads to separable 'attention-like' effects on behaviour. We discuss how this could be linked to distinct underlying neural mechanisms. (PsycINFO Database Record

  5. Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merz, B.; Elmer, F.; Thieken, A. H.

    2009-06-01

    The need for an efficient use of limited resources fosters the application of risk-oriented design in flood mitigation. Flood defence measures reduce future damage. Traditionally, this benefit is quantified via the expected annual damage. We analyse the contribution of "high probability/low damage" floods versus the contribution of "low probability/high damage" events to the expected annual damage. For three case studies, i.e. actual flood situations in flood-prone communities in Germany, it is shown that the expected annual damage is dominated by "high probability/low damage" events. Extreme events play a minor role, even though they cause high damage. Using typical values for flood frequency behaviour, flood plain morphology, distribution of assets and vulnerability, it is shown that this also holds for the general case of river floods in Germany. This result is compared to the significance of extreme events in the public perception. "Low probability/high damage" events are more important in the societal view than it is expressed by the expected annual damage. We conclude that the expected annual damage should be used with care since it is not in agreement with societal priorities. Further, risk aversion functions that penalise events with disastrous consequences are introduced in the appraisal of risk mitigation options. It is shown that risk aversion may have substantial implications for decision-making. Different flood mitigation decisions are probable, when risk aversion is taken into account.

  6. Microtechnique for Most-Probable-Number Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Rowe, R.; Todd, R.; Waide, J.

    1977-01-01

    A microtechnique based on the most-probable-number (MPN) method has been developed for the enumeration of the ammonium-oxidizing population in soil samples. An MPN table for a research design ([8 by 12] i.e., 12 dilutions, 8 replicates per dilution) is presented. A correlation of 0.68 was found between MPNs determined by the microtechnique and the standard tube technique. Higher MPNs were obtained with the microtechnique with increased accuracy in endpoint determinations being a possible cause. Considerable savings of time, space, equipment, and reagents are observed using this method. The microtechnique described may be adapted to other microbial populations using various types of media and endpoint determinations. Images PMID:16345226

  7. Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vallejo, J. J.; Hejduk, M. D.; Stamey, J. D.

    2015-01-01

    A simple model is proposed to predict the behavior of Probabilities of Collision (P(sub c)) for conjunction events. The model attempts to predict the location and magnitude of the peak P(sub c) value for an event by assuming the progression of P(sub c) values can be modeled to first order by a downward-opening parabola. To incorporate prior information from a large database of past conjunctions, the Bayes paradigm is utilized; and the operating characteristics of the model are established through a large simulation study. Though the model is simple, it performs well in predicting the temporal location of the peak (P(sub c)) and thus shows promise as a decision aid in operational conjunction assessment risk analysis.

  8. On the probability of dinosaur fleas.

    PubMed

    Dittmar, Katharina; Zhu, Qiyun; Hastriter, Michael W; Whiting, Michael F

    2016-01-11

    Recently, a set of publications described flea fossils from Jurassic and Early Cretaceous geological strata in northeastern China, which were suggested to have parasitized feathered dinosaurs, pterosaurs, and early birds or mammals. In support of these fossils being fleas, a recent publication in BMC Evolutionary Biology described the extended abdomen of a female fossil specimen as due to blood feeding.We here comment on these findings, and conclude that the current interpretation of the evolutionary trajectory and ecology of these putative dinosaur fleas is based on appeal to probability, rather than evidence. Hence, their taxonomic positioning as fleas, or stem fleas, as well as their ecological classification as ectoparasites and blood feeders is not supported by currently available data.

  9. Modeling Capture Probabilities Of Potentially Habitable Exomoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharzer, Charles; Porter, S.; Grundy, W.

    2012-01-01

    The satellites of extrasolar planets (exomoons) have been theorized to be a viable location for extraterrestrial life. New methods are quickly developing to detect their presence by examining the transits of extrasolar gas giants. In addition, models have shown that the probability for a captured exomoon to stabilize into a near-circular orbit at a close distance to a planet is greater than 50 percent. In this study, we model the interaction, potentially resulting in a capture, between a gas giant and a binary moving toward it on a hyperbolic tra jectory. We find that, for certain conditions, capture of an exomoon is not just possible, it is overwhelmingly likely. We hope to use the results of this experiment to determine initial parameters for a subsequent simulation modeling a physical system of a gas giant and binary orbiting a star.

  10. Continuity of percolation probability on hyperbolic graphs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, C. Chris

    1997-05-01

    Let T k be a forwarding tree of degree k where each vertex other than the origin has k children and one parent and the origin has k children but no parent ( k≥2). Define G to be the graph obtained by adding to T k nearest neighbor bonds connecting the vertices which are in the same generation. G is regarded as a discretization of the hyperbolic plane H 2 in the same sense that Z d is a discretization of R d . Independent percolation on G has been proved to have multiple phase transitions. We prove that the percolation probability O(p) is continuous on [0,1] as a function of p.

  11. Audio feature extraction using probability distribution function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suhaib, A.; Wan, Khairunizam; Aziz, Azri A.; Hazry, D.; Razlan, Zuradzman M.; Shahriman A., B.

    2015-05-01

    Voice recognition has been one of the popular applications in robotic field. It is also known to be recently used for biometric and multimedia information retrieval system. This technology is attained from successive research on audio feature extraction analysis. Probability Distribution Function (PDF) is a statistical method which is usually used as one of the processes in complex feature extraction methods such as GMM and PCA. In this paper, a new method for audio feature extraction is proposed which is by using only PDF as a feature extraction method itself for speech analysis purpose. Certain pre-processing techniques are performed in prior to the proposed feature extraction method. Subsequently, the PDF result values for each frame of sampled voice signals obtained from certain numbers of individuals are plotted. From the experimental results obtained, it can be seen visually from the plotted data that each individuals' voice has comparable PDF values and shapes.

  12. Probability-one homotopies in computational science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watson, Layne T.

    2002-03-01

    Probability-one homotopy algorithms are a class of methods for solving nonlinear systems of equations that, under mild assumptions, are globally convergent for a wide range of problems in science and engineering. Convergence theory, robust numerical algorithms, and production quality mathematical software exist for general nonlinear systems of equations, and special cases such as Brouwer fixed point problems, polynomial systems, and nonlinear constrained optimization. Using a sample of challenging scientific problems as motivation, some pertinent homotopy theory and algorithms are presented. The problems considered are analog circuit simulation (for nonlinear systems), reconfigurable space trusses (for polynomial systems), and fuel-optimal orbital rendezvous (for nonlinear constrained optimization). The mathematical software packages HOMPACK90 and POLSYS_PLP are also briefly described.

  13. Quantum probabilities for inflation from holography

    SciTech Connect

    Hartle, James B.; Hawking, S.W.; Hertog, Thomas E-mail: S.W.Hawking@damtp.cam.ac.uk

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of the universe is determined by its quantum state. The wave function of the universe obeys the constraints of general relativity and in particular the Wheeler-DeWitt equation (WDWE). For non-zero Λ, we show that solutions of the WDWE at large volume have two domains in which geometries and fields are asymptotically real. In one the histories are Euclidean asymptotically anti-de Sitter, in the other they are Lorentzian asymptotically classical de Sitter. Further, the universal complex semiclassical asymptotic structure of solutions of the WDWE implies that the leading order in h-bar quantum probabilities for classical, asymptotically de Sitter histories can be obtained from the action of asymptotically anti-de Sitter configurations. This leads to a promising, universal connection between quantum cosmology and holography.

  14. Carrier Modulation Via Waveform Probability Density Function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Glenn L.

    2006-01-01

    Beyond the classic modes of carrier modulation by varying amplitude (AM), phase (PM), or frequency (FM), we extend the modulation domain of an analog carrier signal to include a class of general modulations which are distinguished by their probability density function histogram. Separate waveform states are easily created by varying the pdf of the transmitted waveform. Individual waveform states are assignable as proxies for digital one's or zero's. At the receiver, these states are easily detected by accumulating sampled waveform statistics and performing periodic pattern matching, correlation, or statistical filtering. No fundamental physical laws are broken in the detection process. We show how a typical modulation scheme would work in the digital domain and suggest how to build an analog version. We propose that clever variations of the modulating waveform (and thus the histogram) can provide simple steganographic encoding.

  15. Probability density estimation using artificial neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Likas, Aristidis

    2001-04-01

    We present an approach for the estimation of probability density functions (pdf) given a set of observations. It is based on the use of feedforward multilayer neural networks with sigmoid hidden units. The particular characteristic of the method is that the output of the network is not a pdf, therefore, the computation of the network's integral is required. When this integral cannot be performed analytically, one is forced to resort to numerical integration techniques. It turns out that this is quite tricky when coupled with subsequent training procedures. Several modifications of the original approach (Modha and Fainman, 1994) are proposed, most of them related to the numerical treatment of the integral and the employment of a preprocessing phase where the network parameters are initialized using supervised training. Experimental results using several test problems indicate that the proposed method is very effective and in most cases superior to the method of Gaussian mixtures.

  16. Carrier Modulation Via Waveform Probability Density Function

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Glenn L.

    2004-01-01

    Beyond the classic modes of carrier modulation by varying amplitude (AM), phase (PM), or frequency (FM), we extend the modulation domain of an analog carrier signal to include a class of general modulations which are distinguished by their probability density function histogram. Separate waveform states are easily created by varying the pdf of the transmitted waveform. Individual waveform states are assignable as proxies for digital ONEs or ZEROs. At the receiver, these states are easily detected by accumulating sampled waveform statistics and performing periodic pattern matching, correlation, or statistical filtering. No fundamental natural laws are broken in the detection process. We show how a typical modulation scheme would work in the digital domain and suggest how to build an analog version. We propose that clever variations of the modulating waveform (and thus the histogram) can provide simple steganographic encoding.

  17. Probability and delay discounting of erotic stimuli.

    PubMed

    Lawyer, Steven R

    2008-09-01

    Adult undergraduate men (n=38) and women (n=33) were categorized as erotica "users" (n=34) and "non-users" (n=37) based on their responses to screening questions and completed computerized delay and probability discounting tasks concerning hypothetical money and erotica. Erotica users discounted the value of erotica similarly to money on three of the four erotica tasks; erotica non-users discounted the value of money consistent with erotica users, but not the value of erotica. Erotica users were disproportionately male, scored higher on several psychometric measures of sexuality-related constructs, and exhibited more impulsive choice patterns on the delay discounting for money task than erotica non-users did. These findings suggest that discounting processes generalize to erotic outcomes for some individuals.

  18. Parabolic Ejecta Features on Titan? Probably Not

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, R. D.; Melosh, H. J.

    1996-03-01

    Radar mapping of Venus by Magellan indicated a number of dark parabolic features, associated with impact craters. A suggested mechanism for generating such features is that ejecta from the impact event is 'winnowed' by the zonal wind field, with smaller ejecta particles falling out of the atmosphere more slowly, and hence drifting further. What discriminates such features from simple wind streaks is the 'stingray' or parabolic shape. This is due to the ejecta's spatial distribution prior to being winnowed during fallout, and this distribution is generated by the explosion plume of the impact piercing the atmosphere, allowing the ejecta to disperse pseudoballistically before re-entering the atmosphere, decelerating to terminal velocity and then being winnowed. Here we apply this model to Titan, which has a zonal wind field similar to that of Venus. We find that Cassini will probably not find parabolic features, as the winds stretch the deposition so far that ejecta will form streaks or bands instead.

  19. Model estimates hurricane wind speed probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mumane, Richard J.; Barton, Chris; Collins, Eric; Donnelly, Jeffrey; Eisner, James; Emanuel, Kerry; Ginis, Isaac; Howard, Susan; Landsea, Chris; Liu, Kam-biu; Malmquist, David; McKay, Megan; Michaels, Anthony; Nelson, Norm; O Brien, James; Scott, David; Webb, Thompson, III

    In the United States, intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir/Simpson scale) with winds greater than 50 m s -1 have caused more damage than any other natural disaster [Pielke and Pielke, 1997]. Accurate estimates of wind speed exceedance probabilities (WSEP) due to intense hurricanes are therefore of great interest to (re)insurers, emergency planners, government officials, and populations in vulnerable coastal areas.The historical record of U.S. hurricane landfall is relatively complete only from about 1900, and most model estimates of WSEP are derived from this record. During the 1899-1998 period, only two category-5 and 16 category-4 hurricanes made landfall in the United States. The historical record therefore provides only a limited sample of the most intense hurricanes.

  20. Economic choices reveal probability distortion in macaque monkeys.

    PubMed

    Stauffer, William R; Lak, Armin; Bossaerts, Peter; Schultz, Wolfram

    2015-02-18

    Economic choices are largely determined by two principal elements, reward value (utility) and probability. Although nonlinear utility functions have been acknowledged for centuries, nonlinear probability weighting (probability distortion) was only recently recognized as a ubiquitous aspect of real-world choice behavior. Even when outcome probabilities are known and acknowledged, human decision makers often overweight low probability outcomes and underweight high probability outcomes. Whereas recent studies measured utility functions and their corresponding neural correlates in monkeys, it is not known whether monkeys distort probability in a manner similar to humans. Therefore, we investigated economic choices in macaque monkeys for evidence of probability distortion. We trained two monkeys to predict reward from probabilistic gambles with constant outcome values (0.5 ml or nothing). The probability of winning was conveyed using explicit visual cues (sector stimuli). Choices between the gambles revealed that the monkeys used the explicit probability information to make meaningful decisions. Using these cues, we measured probability distortion from choices between the gambles and safe rewards. Parametric modeling of the choices revealed classic probability weighting functions with inverted-S shape. Therefore, the animals overweighted low probability rewards and underweighted high probability rewards. Empirical investigation of the behavior verified that the choices were best explained by a combination of nonlinear value and nonlinear probability distortion. Together, these results suggest that probability distortion may reflect evolutionarily preserved neuronal processing.

  1. Naive Probability: A Mental Model Theory of Extensional Reasoning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson-Laird, P. N.; Legrenzi, Paolo; Girotto, Vittorio; Legrenzi, Maria Sonino; Caverni, Jean-Paul

    1999-01-01

    Outlines a theory of naive probability in which individuals who are unfamiliar with the probability calculus can infer the probabilities of events in an "extensional" way. The theory accommodates reasoning based on numerical premises, and explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem.…

  2. Economic Choices Reveal Probability Distortion in Macaque Monkeys

    PubMed Central

    Lak, Armin; Bossaerts, Peter; Schultz, Wolfram

    2015-01-01

    Economic choices are largely determined by two principal elements, reward value (utility) and probability. Although nonlinear utility functions have been acknowledged for centuries, nonlinear probability weighting (probability distortion) was only recently recognized as a ubiquitous aspect of real-world choice behavior. Even when outcome probabilities are known and acknowledged, human decision makers often overweight low probability outcomes and underweight high probability outcomes. Whereas recent studies measured utility functions and their corresponding neural correlates in monkeys, it is not known whether monkeys distort probability in a manner similar to humans. Therefore, we investigated economic choices in macaque monkeys for evidence of probability distortion. We trained two monkeys to predict reward from probabilistic gambles with constant outcome values (0.5 ml or nothing). The probability of winning was conveyed using explicit visual cues (sector stimuli). Choices between the gambles revealed that the monkeys used the explicit probability information to make meaningful decisions. Using these cues, we measured probability distortion from choices between the gambles and safe rewards. Parametric modeling of the choices revealed classic probability weighting functions with inverted-S shape. Therefore, the animals overweighted low probability rewards and underweighted high probability rewards. Empirical investigation of the behavior verified that the choices were best explained by a combination of nonlinear value and nonlinear probability distortion. Together, these results suggest that probability distortion may reflect evolutionarily preserved neuronal processing. PMID:25698750

  3. On the probability distributions of ellipticity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viola, M.; Kitching, T. D.; Joachimi, B.

    2014-04-01

    In this paper we derive an exact full expression for the 2D probability distribution of the ellipticity of an object measured from data, only assuming Gaussian noise in pixel values. This is a generalization of the probability distribution for the ratio of single random variables, that is well known, to the multivariate case. This expression is derived within the context of the measurement of weak gravitational lensing from noisy galaxy images. We find that the third flattening, or ɛ-ellipticity, has a biased maximum likelihood but an unbiased mean; and that the third eccentricity, or normalized polarization χ, has both a biased maximum likelihood and a biased mean. The very fact that the bias in the ellipticity is itself a function of the ellipticity requires an accurate knowledge of the intrinsic ellipticity distribution of the galaxies in order to properly calibrate shear measurements. We use this expression to explore strategies for calibration of biases caused by measurement processes in weak gravitational lensing. We find that upcoming weak-lensing surveys like KiDS or DES require calibration fields of the order of several square degrees and 1.2 mag deeper than the wide survey in order to correct for the noise bias. Future surveys like Euclid will require calibration fields of order 40 square degree and several magnitude deeper than the wide survey. We also investigate the use of the Stokes parameters to estimate the shear as an alternative to the ellipticity. We find that they can provide unbiased shear estimates at the cost of a very large variance in the measurement. The PYTHON code used to compute the distributions presented in the paper and to perform the numerical calculations are available on request.

  4. Repetition probability effects depend on prior experiences.

    PubMed

    Grotheer, Mareike; Kovács, Gyula

    2014-05-07

    The magnitude of repetition suppression (RS) in the Fusiform Face Area is influenced by the probability of repetitions of faces (Summerfield et al., 2008), implying that perceptual expectations affect repetition-related processes. Surprisingly, however, macaque single-cell (Kaliukhovich and Vogels, 2011) and human fMRI (Kovács et al., 2013) studies have failed to find repetition probability [P(rep)] modulations of RS with nonface stimuli in the occipitotemporal cortex, suggesting that the effect is face specific. One possible explanation of this category selectivity is that the extensive experience humans have with faces affects the neural mechanisms of RS specifically, creating P(rep) modulatory effects. To address this question, we used fMRI to test the P(rep) effects for another well trained stimulus category, upright letters of the roman alphabet as well as for unfamiliar false fonts. We observed significant RS for both stimulus sets in the Letter Form Area as well as in the caudodorsal part of the lateral occipital complex. Interestingly, the influence of P(rep) on RS was dependent on the stimulus: while we observed P(rep) modulations for the roman letters, no such effects were found for the unfamiliar false fonts in either area. Our findings suggest that P(rep) effects on RS are manifest for nonface stimuli as well, but that they depend on the experience of the subjects with the stimulus category. This shows, for the first time, that prior experience affects the influence of contextual predictive information on RS in the human occipitotemporal cortex.

  5. Bayesian probability approach to ADHD appraisal.

    PubMed

    Robeva, Raina; Penberthy, Jennifer Kim

    2009-01-01

    Accurate diagnosis of attentional disorders such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is imperative because there are multiple negative psychosocial sequelae related to undiagnosed and untreated ADHD. Early and accurate detection can lead to effective intervention and prevention of negative sequelae. Unfortunately, diagnosing ADHD presents a challenge to traditional assessment paradigms because there is no single test that definitively establishes its presence. Even though ADHD is a physiologically based disorder with a multifactorial etiology, the diagnosis has been traditionally based on a subjective history of symptoms. In this chapter we outline a stochastic method that utilizes a Bayesian interface for quantifying and assessing ADHD. It can be used to combine of a variety of psychometric tests and physiological markers into a single standardized instrument that, on each step, refines a probability for ADHD for each individual based on information provided by the individual assessments. The method is illustrated with data from a small study of six college female students with ADHD and six matched controls in which the method achieves correct classification for all participants, where none of the individual assessments was capable of achieving perfect classification. Further, we provide a framework for applying this Bayesian method for performing meta-analysis of data obtained from disparate studies and using disparate tests for ADHD based on calibration of the data into a unified probability scale. We use this method to combine data from five studies that examine the diagnostic abilities of different behavioral rating scales and EEG assessments of ADHD, enrolling a total of 56 ADHD and 55 control subjects of different age groups and gender.

  6. Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

    PubMed

    Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

    2016-06-01

    Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome, which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the

  7. Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions

    PubMed Central

    Dinov, Ivo D.; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K.; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome, which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the

  8. Probability and the patient state space.

    PubMed

    Coleman, W P; Siegel, J H; Giovannini, I; De Gaetano, A; Goodarzi, S; Tacchino, R M; Sganga, G

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes work to develop a model-based system to support clinical decision-making. In previous articles, we have developed (from 695 measurement sets obtained from 148 patients) a physiologic state classification based on a set of 11 cardiovascular and metabolic measurements. There is an R or reference state, for stable ICU patients. Patients under (operative, traumatic, or compensated septic) stress, or with (septic or hepatic) metabolic, respiratory, or cardiac insufficiency are in the A, B, C, or D states, respectively. We wished to make the state easier to measure and eventually available continuously, automatically, and noninvasively, as well as reflecting a wider group of bodily systems. The 5 centers define a 4 dimensional affine subspace, designated the cardiovascular state space. Using eigenvector analysis, we have found four new derived physiologic variables CV1, CV2, CV3, and CV4 that span the state space. We have fit sets of linear regression equations that allow the patient's position in the state space, and therefore his state, to be determined from more easily obtainable sets of measurements. Further, we selected 1966 measurement sets from 512 patients at two hospitals. We used the data from 250 of these patients to define 13 prototypical types, namely survivors and deaths from various combinations of sepsis, cardiogenic decompensation, cirrhosis, and pneumonitis, following trauma or general surgery. For any future patient, the statistical theory of Bayesian inference allows one to infer back from the measurements observed to the probability of his being of any of these types and of surviving or dying. We used this method to predict the outcome of the other 262 patients, prospectively. Statistically, the predictions of survival or death were not significantly different from the actual. For individual patients, the method predicts a clinical course that closely follows the actual episodes in their history. These results confirm and explain

  9. Probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions in performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal

    SciTech Connect

    Helton, J.C.

    1996-03-01

    A formal description of the structure of several recent performance assessments (PAs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is given in terms of the following three components: a probability space (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) for stochastic uncertainty, a probability space (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}) for subjective uncertainty and a function (i.e., a random variable) defined on the product space associated with (S{sub st}, S{sub st}, p{sub st}) and (S{sub su}, S{sub su}, p{sub su}). The explicit recognition of the existence of these three components allows a careful description of the use of probability, conditional probability and complementary cumulative distribution functions within the WIPP PA. This usage is illustrated in the context of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency`s standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, Subpart B). The paradigm described in this presentation can also be used to impose a logically consistent structure on PAs for other complex systems.

  10. Correlation between the clinical pretest probability score and the lung ventilation and perfusion scan probability

    PubMed Central

    Bhoobalan, Shanmugasundaram; Chakravartty, Riddhika; Dolbear, Gill; Al-Janabi, Mazin

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Aim of the study was to determine the accuracy of the clinical pretest probability (PTP) score and its association with lung ventilation and perfusion (VQ) scan. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis of 510 patients who had a lung VQ scan between 2008 and 2010 were included in the study. Out of 510 studies, the number of normal, low, and high probability VQ scans were 155 (30%), 289 (57%), and 55 (11%), respectively. Results: A total of 103 patients underwent computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) scan in which 21 (20%) had a positive scan, 81 (79%) had a negative scan and one (1%) had an equivocal result. The rate of PE in the normal, low-probability, and high-probability scan categories were: 2 (9.5%), 10 (47.5%), and 9 (43%) respectively. A very low correlation (Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.20) between the clinical PTP score and lung VQ scan. The area under the curve (AUC) of the clinical PTP score was 52% when compared with the CTPA results. However, the accuracy of lung VQ scan was better (AUC = 74%) when compared with CTPA scan. Conclusion: The clinical PTP score is unreliable on its own; however, it may still aid in the interpretation of lung VQ scan. The accuracy of the lung VQ scan was better in the assessment of underlying pulmonary embolism (PE). PMID:24379532

  11. Effects of NMDA receptor antagonists on probability discounting depend on the order of probability presentation.

    PubMed

    Yates, Justin R; Breitenstein, Kerry A; Gunkel, Benjamin T; Hughes, Mallory N; Johnson, Anthony B; Rogers, Katherine K; Shape, Sara M

    Risky decision making can be measured using a probability-discounting procedure, in which animals choose between a small, certain reinforcer and a large, uncertain reinforcer. Recent evidence has identified glutamate as a mediator of risky decision making, as blocking the N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor with MK-801 increases preference for a large, uncertain reinforcer. Because the order in which probabilities associated with the large reinforcer can modulate the effects of drugs on choice, the current study determined if NMDA receptor ligands alter probability discounting using ascending and descending schedules. Sixteen rats were trained in a probability-discounting procedure in which the odds against obtaining the large reinforcer increased (n=8) or decreased (n=8) across blocks of trials. Following behavioral training, rats received treatments of the NMDA receptor ligands MK-801 (uncompetitive antagonist; 0, 0.003, 0.01, or 0.03mg/kg), ketamine (uncompetitive antagonist; 0, 1.0, 5.0, or 10.0mg/kg), and ifenprodil (NR2B-selective non-competitive antagonist; 0, 1.0, 3.0, or 10.0mg/kg). Results showed discounting was steeper (indicating increased risk aversion) for rats on an ascending schedule relative to rats on the descending schedule. Furthermore, the effects of MK-801, ketamine, and ifenprodil on discounting were dependent on the schedule used. Specifically, the highest dose of each drug decreased risk taking in rats in the descending schedule, but only MK-801 (0.03mg/kg) increased risk taking in rats on an ascending schedule. These results show that probability presentation order modulates the effects of NMDA receptor ligands on risky decision making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Estimating probability distributions of solar irradiance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voskrebenzev, A.; Riechelmann, S.; Bais, A.; Slaper, H.; Seckmeyer, G.

    2015-02-01

    In the presence of clouds the ability to calculate instantaneous spectral irradiance values is limited by the ability to acquire appropriate input parameters for radiative transfer solvers. However, the knowledge of the statistical characteristics of spectral irradiance as a function of season and time of the day is relevant for solar energy and health applications. For this purpose a method to derive the wavelength dependent probability density functions (PDFs) and its seasonal site variability is presented. In contrast to the UVB range, the derived PDFS at three stations in Europe (Bilthoven, Garmisch-Partenkirchen and Thessaloniki) show only minor wavelength dependence above 315 nm. But there are major differences of the PDFs that are attributed to the site specific cloud climatology at these stations. Furthermore the results suggest that the previously described relationship between air mass and bimodality is the consequence of seasonal cloud variations. For Thessaloniki it is shown that the pyranometer sample spread around the cloudless value is proportional to the secant of the solar zenith angle and therefore scales according to air mass. Cloud amount observations are utilized to associate the local maxima of the multimodal PDFs with rough cloudiness states confirming the already established interpretation of broadband data for spectral data as well. As one application example the likelihood of irradiance enhancements over the clear sky case due to clouds is assessed.

  13. Do aftershock probabilities decay with time?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    So, do aftershock probabilities decay with time? Consider a thought experiment in which we are at the time of the mainshock and ask how many aftershocks will occur a day, week, month, year, or even a century from now. First we must decide how large a window to use around each point in time. Let's assume that, as we go further into the future, we are asking a less precise question. Perhaps a day from now means 1 day 10% of a day, a week from now means 1 week 10% of a week, and so on. If we ignore c because it is a small fraction of a day (e.g., Reasenberg and Jones, 1989, hereafter RJ89), and set p = 1 because it is usually close to 1 (its value in the original Omori law), then the rate of earthquakes (K=t) decays at 1=t. If the length of the windows being considered increases proportionally to t, then the number of earthquakes at any time from now is the same because the rate decrease is canceled by the increase in the window duration. Under these conditions we should never think "It's a bit late for this to be an aftershock."

  14. Topology of spaces of probability measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banakh, T. O.; Radul, T. N.

    1997-08-01

    We study the space \\widehat P(X) of Radon probability measures on a metric space X and its subspaces P_c(X), P_d(X) and P_\\omega (X) of continuous measures, discrete measures, and finitely supported measures, respectively. It is proved that for any completely metrizable space X, the space \\widehat P(X) is homeomorphic to a Hilbert space. A topological classification is obtained for the pairs (\\widehat P(K),\\widehat P(X)), (\\widehat P(K),P_d(Y)) and (\\widehat P(K),P_c(Z)), where K is a metric compactum, X an everywhere dense Borel subset of K, Y an everywhere dense F_{\\sigma \\delta }-set of K, and Z an everywhere uncountable everywhere dense Borel subset of K of sufficiently high Borel class. Conditions on the pair (X,Y) are found that are necessary and sufficient for the pair (\\widehat P(X),P_\\omega (Y)) to be homeomorphic to (l^2(A),l^2_f(A)).

  15. Essays on probability elicitation scoring rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmino, Paulo Renato A.; dos Santos Neto, Ademir B.

    2012-10-01

    In probability elicitation exercises it has been usual to considerer scoring rules (SRs) to measure the performance of experts when inferring about a given unknown, Θ, for which the true value, θ*, is (or will shortly be) known to the experimenter. Mathematically, SRs quantify the discrepancy between f(θ) (the distribution reflecting the expert's uncertainty about Θ) and d(θ), a zero-one indicator function of the observation θ*. Thus, a remarkable characteristic of SRs is to contrast expert's beliefs with the observation θ*. The present work aims at extending SRs concepts and formulas for the cases where Θ is aleatory, highlighting advantages of goodness-of-fit and entropy-like measures. Conceptually, it is argued that besides of evaluating the personal performance of the expert, SRs may also play a role when comparing the elicitation processes adopted to obtain f(θ). Mathematically, it is proposed to replace d(θ) by g(θ), the distribution that model the randomness of Θ, and do also considerer goodness-of-fit and entropylike metrics, leading to SRs that measure the adherence of f(θ) to g(θ). The implications of this alternative perspective are discussed and illustrated by means of case studies based on the simulation of controlled experiments. The usefulness of the proposed approach for evaluating the performance of experts and elicitation processes is investigated.

  16. Statistical Physics of Pairwise Probability Models

    PubMed Central

    Roudi, Yasser; Aurell, Erik; Hertz, John A.

    2009-01-01

    Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of data: knowledge of the mean values and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying and using pairwise models. We build on our previous work on the subject and study the relation between different methods for fitting these models and evaluating their quality. In particular, using data from simulated cortical networks we study how the quality of various approximate methods for inferring the parameters in a pairwise model depends on the time bin chosen for binning the data. We also study the effect of the size of the time bin on the model quality itself, again using simulated data. We show that using finer time bins increases the quality of the pairwise model. We offer new ways of deriving the expressions reported in our previous work for assessing the quality of pairwise models. PMID:19949460

  17. Insights into decision making using choice probability.

    PubMed

    Crapse, Trinity B; Basso, Michele A

    2015-12-01

    A long-standing question in systems neuroscience is how the activity of single neurons gives rise to our perceptions and actions. Critical insights into this question occurred in the last part of the 20th century when scientists began linking modulations of neuronal activity directly to perceptual behavior. A significant conceptual advance was the application of signal detection theory to both neuronal activity and behavior, providing a quantitative assessment of the relationship between brain and behavior. One metric that emerged from these efforts was choice probability (CP), which provides information about how well an ideal observer can predict the choice an animal makes from a neuron's discharge rate distribution. In this review, we describe where CP has been studied, locational trends in the values found, and why CP values are typically so low. We discuss its dependence on correlated activity among neurons of a population, assess whether it arises from feedforward or feedback mechanisms, and investigate what CP tells us about how many neurons are required for a decision and how they are pooled to do so.

  18. Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict

    PubMed Central

    Smithson, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Whether conflict and ambiguity are distinct kinds of uncertainty remains an open question, as does their joint impact on judgments of overall uncertainty. This paper reviews recent advances in our understanding of human judgment and decision making when both ambiguity and conflict are present, and presents two types of testable models of judgments under conflict and ambiguity. The first type concerns estimate-pooling to arrive at “best” probability estimates. The second type is models of subjective assessments of conflict and ambiguity. These models are developed for dealing with both described and experienced information. A framework for testing these models in the described-information setting is presented, including a reanalysis of a multi-nation data-set to test best-estimate models, and a study of participants' assessments of conflict, ambiguity, and overall uncertainty reported by Smithson (2013). A framework for research in the experienced-information setting is then developed, that differs substantially from extant paradigms in the literature. This framework yields new models of “best” estimates and perceived conflict. The paper concludes with specific suggestions for future research on judgment and decision making under conflict and ambiguity. PMID:26042081

  19. Lectures on probability and statistics. Revision

    SciTech Connect

    Yost, G.P.

    1985-06-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. They begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probabilty of any specified outcome. They finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another. Hopefully, the reader will come away from these notes with a feel for some of the problems and uncertainties involved. Although there are standard approaches, most of the time there is no cut and dried ''best'' solution - ''best'' according to every criterion.

  20. Grain Exchange Probabilities Within a Gravel Bed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haschenburger, J.

    2008-12-01

    Sediment transfers in gravel-bed rivers involve the vertical exchange of sediments during floods. These exchanges regulate the virtual velocity of sediment and bed material texture. This study describes general tendencies in the vertical exchange of gravels within the substrate that result from multiple floods. Empirical observations come from Carnation Creek, a small gravel-bed river with large woody debris located on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Frequent floods and the relatively limited armor layer facilitate streambed activity and relatively high bedload transport rates, typically under partial sediment transport conditions. Over 2000 magnetically tagged stones, ranging in size from 16 to 180 mm, were deployed on the bed surface between 1991 and 1992. These tracers have been recovered 10 times over 12 flood seasons to quantify their vertical position in the streambed. For analysis, the bed is divided into layers based on armor layer thickness. Once tracers are well mixed within the streambed, grains in the surface layer are most likely to be mixed into the subsurface, while subsurface grains are most likely to persist within the subsurface. Fractional exchange probabilities approach size independence when the most active depth of the substrate is considered. Overall these results highlight vertical mixing as an important process in the dispersion of gravels.

  1. Atomic Transition Probabilities for Neutral Cerium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawler, J. E.; den Hartog, E. A.; Wood, M. P.; Nitz, D. E.; Chisholm, J.; Sobeck, J.

    2009-10-01

    The spectra of neutral cerium (Ce I) and singly ionized cerium (Ce II) are more complex than spectra of other rare earth species. The resulting high density of lines in the visible makes Ce ideal for use in metal halide (MH) High Intensity Discharge (HID) lamps. Inclusion of cerium-iodide in a lamp dose can improve both the Color Rendering Index and luminous efficacy of a MH-HID lamp. Basic spectroscopic data including absolute atomic transition probabilities for Ce I and Ce II are needed for diagnosing and modeling these MH-HID lamps. Recent work on Ce II [1] is now being augmented with similar work on Ce I. Radiative lifetimes from laser induced fluorescence measurements [2] on neutral Ce are being combined with emission branching fractions from spectra recorded using a Fourier transform spectrometer. A total of 14 high resolution spectra are being analyzed to determine branching fractions for 2000 to 3000 lines from 153 upper levels in neutral Ce. Representative data samples and progress to date will be presented. [4pt] [1] J. E. Lawler, C. Sneden, J. J. Cowan, I. I. Ivans, and E. A. Den Hartog, Astrophys. J. Suppl. Ser. 182, 51-79 (2009). [0pt] [2] E. A. Den Hartog, K. P. Buettner, and J. E. Lawler, J. Phys. B: Atomic, Molecular & Optical Physics 42, 085006 (7pp) (2009).

  2. Atomic Transition Probabilities for Neutral Cerium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chisholm, John; Nitz, D.; Sobeck, J.; Den Hartog, E. A.; Wood, M. P.; Lawler, J. E.

    2010-01-01

    Among the rare earth species, the spectra of neutral cerium (Ce I) and singly ionized cerium (Ce II) are some of the most complex. Like other rare earth species, Ce has many lines in the visible which are suitable for elemental abundance studies. Recent work on Ce II transition probabilities [1] is now being augmented with similar work on Ce I for future studies using such lines from astrophysical sources. Radiative lifetimes from laser induced fluorescence measurements [2] on neutral Ce are being combined with emission branching fractions from spectra recorded using a Fourier transform spectrometer. A total of 14 high resolution spectra are being analyzed to determine branching fractions for 2500 to 3000 lines from 153 upper levels in neutral Ce. Representative data samples and progress to date will be presented. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation's REU program and the Department of Defense's ASSURE program through NSF Award AST-0453442 and NSF Grant CTS0613277. [1] J. E. Lawler, C. Sneden, J. J. Cowan, I. I. Ivans, and E. A. Den Hartog, Astrophys. J. Suppl. Ser. 182, 51-79 (2009). [2] E. A. Den Hartog, K. P. Buettner, and J. E. Lawler, J. Phys. B: Atomic, Molecular & Optical Physics 42, 085006 (7pp) (2009).

  3. Parametric probability distributions for anomalous change detection

    SciTech Connect

    Theiler, James P; Foy, Bernard R; Wohlberg, Brendt E; Scovel, James C

    2010-01-01

    The problem of anomalous change detection arises when two (or possibly more) images are taken of the same scene, but at different times. The aim is to discount the 'pervasive differences' that occur thoughout the imagery, due to the inevitably different conditions under which the images were taken (caused, for instance, by differences in illumination, atmospheric conditions, sensor calibration, or misregistration), and to focus instead on the 'anomalous changes' that actually take place in the scene. In general, anomalous change detection algorithms attempt to model these normal or pervasive differences, based on data taken directly from the imagery, and then identify as anomalous those pixels for which the model does not hold. For many algorithms, these models are expressed in terms of probability distributions, and there is a class of such algorithms that assume the distributions are Gaussian. By considering a broader class of distributions, however, a new class of anomalous change detection algorithms can be developed. We consider several parametric families of such distributions, derive the associated change detection algorithms, and compare the performance with standard algorithms that are based on Gaussian distributions. We find that it is often possible to significantly outperform these standard algorithms, even using relatively simple non-Gaussian models.

  4. Microscale mapping of SPAD photon detection probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonifacio, D. A. B.; Gros-Daillon, E.; Verger, L.

    2017-05-01

    As silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) technology still has potential for further improvements, we describe a method to map the photon detection probability of a single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) at the microscale level, in order to evaluate the behavior of the SPAD triggering capabilities as a function of the position of the incident light and to determine its homogeneity. For this purpose, we performed the analysis of the light response for a single active SPAD, with all its neighbors switched off, using a scanning setup, composed of the digital SiPM SPADnet-I data acquisition system, a microscope, a servo positioning system, a spectrograph and a CCD camera. We varied the wavelength of the incoming light to probe the device volume from the P-well to the N-well, with the ultimate goal of understanding and improving overall sensor performance. The comparison of this study to SPAD design and electric field technology computer-aided design (TCAD) simulation enables one to estimate how much the P-well drawn area could be increased to optimize fill factor without causing premature edge breakdown through guard ring failure.

  5. Probability judgments under ambiguity and conflict.

    PubMed

    Smithson, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Whether conflict and ambiguity are distinct kinds of uncertainty remains an open question, as does their joint impact on judgments of overall uncertainty. This paper reviews recent advances in our understanding of human judgment and decision making when both ambiguity and conflict are present, and presents two types of testable models of judgments under conflict and ambiguity. The first type concerns estimate-pooling to arrive at "best" probability estimates. The second type is models of subjective assessments of conflict and ambiguity. These models are developed for dealing with both described and experienced information. A framework for testing these models in the described-information setting is presented, including a reanalysis of a multi-nation data-set to test best-estimate models, and a study of participants' assessments of conflict, ambiguity, and overall uncertainty reported by Smithson (2013). A framework for research in the experienced-information setting is then developed, that differs substantially from extant paradigms in the literature. This framework yields new models of "best" estimates and perceived conflict. The paper concludes with specific suggestions for future research on judgment and decision making under conflict and ambiguity.

  6. Transit probabilities around hypervelocity and runaway stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fragione, G.; Ginsburg, I.

    2017-04-01

    In the blooming field of exoplanetary science, NASA's Kepler Space Telescope has revolutionized our understanding of exoplanets. Kepler's very precise and long-duration photometry is ideal for detecting planetary transits around Sun-like stars. The forthcoming Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is expected to continue Kepler's legacy. Along with transits, the Doppler technique remains an invaluable tool for discovering planets. The next generation of spectrographs, such as G-CLEF, promise precision radial velocity measurements. In this paper, we explore the possibility of detecting planets around hypervelocity and runaway stars, which should host a very compact system as consequence of their turbulent origin. We find that the probability of a multiplanetary transit is 10-3 ≲ P ≲ 10-1. We therefore need to observe ∼10-1000 high-velocity stars to spot a transit. However, even if transits are rare around runaway and hypervelocity stars, the chances of detecting such planets using radial velocity surveys is high. We predict that the European Gaia satellite, along with TESS and the new-generation spectrographs G-CLEF and ESPRESSO, will spot planetary systems orbiting high-velocity stars.

  7. Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

    2008-12-01

    We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for

  8. Probably good diagrams for learning: representational epistemic recodification of probability theory.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Peter C-H

    2011-07-01

    The representational epistemic approach to the design of visual displays and notation systems advocates encoding the fundamental conceptual structure of a knowledge domain directly in the structure of a representational system. It is claimed that representations so designed will benefit from greater semantic transparency, which enhances comprehension and ease of learning, and plastic generativity, which makes the meaningful manipulation of the representation easier and less error prone. Epistemic principles for encoding fundamental conceptual structures directly in representational schemes are described. The diagrammatic recodification of probability theory is undertaken to demonstrate how the fundamental conceptual structure of a knowledge domain can be analyzed, how the identified conceptual structure may be encoded in a representational system, and the cognitive benefits that follow. An experiment shows the new probability space diagrams are superior to the conventional approach for learning this conceptually challenging topic.

  9. On differentiating the probability of error in multipopular feature selection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peters, B. C.

    1974-01-01

    A method of linear feature selection for n dimensional observation vectors which belong to one of m populations is presented. Each population has a known apriori probability and is described by a known multivariate normal density function. Specifically we consider the problem of finding a k x n matrix B of rank k (k n) for which the transformed probability of misclassification is minimized. Providing that the transformed a posterior probabilities are distinct theoretical results are obtained which, for the case k = l, give rise to a numerically tractable formula for the derivative of the probability of misclassification. It is shown that for the two population problem this condition is also necessary. The dependence of the minimum probability of error on the a priori probabilities is investigated. The minimum probability of error satisfies a uniform Lipschitz condition with respect to the a priori probabilities.

  10. Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

    PubMed

    Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

    2015-05-01

    This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used.

  11. Choice strategies in multiple-cue probability learning.

    PubMed

    White, Chris M; Koehler, Derek J

    2007-07-01

    Choice strategies for selecting among outcomes in multiple-cue probability learning were investigated using a simulated medical diagnosis task. Expected choice probabilities (the proportion of times each outcome was selected given each cue pattern) under alternative choice strategies were constructed from corresponding observed judged probabilities (of each outcome given each cue pattern) and compared with observed choice probabilities. Most of the participants were inferred to have responded by using a deterministic strategy, in which the outcome with the higher judged probability is consistently chosen, rather than a probabilistic strategy, in which an outcome is chosen with a probability equal to its judged probability. Extended practice in the learning environment did not affect choice strategy selection, contrary to reports from previous studies, results of which may instead be attributable to changes with practice in the variability and extremity of the perceived probabilities on which the choices were based.

  12. 28 CFR 2.101 - Probable cause hearing and determination.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... who have given information upon which revocation may be based) at a postponed probable cause hearing... attendance, unless good cause is found for not allowing confrontation. Whenever a probable cause hearing...

  13. Statistics and Probability: A Sure Thing for Elementary Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burns, Marilyn

    1983-01-01

    The importance of including statistics and probability concepts in elementary mathematics instruction is discussed. Examples of student-centered classroom activities that introduce statistics are suggested, and six ideas central to statistics and probability are stated. (FG)

  14. Pretest probability assessment derived from attribute matching

    PubMed Central

    Kline, Jeffrey A; Johnson, Charles L; Pollack, Charles V; Diercks, Deborah B; Hollander, Judd E; Newgard, Craig D; Garvey, J Lee

    2005-01-01

    Background Pretest probability (PTP) assessment plays a central role in diagnosis. This report compares a novel attribute-matching method to generate a PTP for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We compare the new method with a validated logistic regression equation (LRE). Methods Eight clinical variables (attributes) were chosen by classification and regression tree analysis of a prospectively collected reference database of 14,796 emergency department (ED) patients evaluated for possible ACS. For attribute matching, a computer program identifies patients within the database who have the exact profile defined by clinician input of the eight attributes. The novel method was compared with the LRE for ability to produce PTP estimation <2% in a validation set of 8,120 patients evaluated for possible ACS and did not have ST segment elevation on ECG. 1,061 patients were excluded prior to validation analysis because of ST-segment elevation (713), missing data (77) or being lost to follow-up (271). Results In the validation set, attribute matching produced 267 unique PTP estimates [median PTP value 6%, 1st–3rd quartile 1–10%] compared with the LRE, which produced 96 unique PTP estimates [median 24%, 1st–3rd quartile 10–30%]. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.74 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.82) for the attribute matching curve and 0.68 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.77) for LRE. The attribute matching system categorized 1,670 (24%, 95% CI = 23–25%) patients as having a PTP < 2.0%; 28 developed ACS (1.7% 95% CI = 1.1–2.4%). The LRE categorized 244 (4%, 95% CI = 3–4%) with PTP < 2.0%; four developed ACS (1.6%, 95% CI = 0.4–4.1%). Conclusion Attribute matching estimated a very low PTP for ACS in a significantly larger proportion of ED patients compared with a validated LRE. PMID:16095534

  15. Probabilistic Cloning of Three Real States with Optimal Success Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rui, Pin-shu

    2017-06-01

    We investigate the probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) of three real states with average probability distribution. To get the analytic forms of the optimal success probabilities we assume that the three states have only two pairwise inner products. Based on the optimal success probabilities, we derive the explicit form of 1 →2 PQC for cloning three real states. The unitary operation needed in the PQC process is worked out too. The optimal success probabilities are also generalized to the M→ N PQC case.

  16. A short note on probability in clinical medicine.

    PubMed

    Upshur, Ross E G

    2013-06-01

    Probability claims are ubiquitous in clinical medicine, yet exactly how clinical events relate to interpretations of probability has been not been well explored. This brief essay examines the major interpretations of probability and how these interpretations may account for the probabilistic nature of clinical events. It is argued that there are significant problems with the unquestioned application of interpretation of probability to clinical events. The essay concludes by suggesting other avenues to understand uncertainty in clinical medicine.

  17. Deduction and Inference Using Conditional Logic and Probability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-05-01

    Carnap and R. C. Jeffrey [30] & [31], H. Gaifman [32], D. Scott and P. Kraus [33], E. W. Adams [19], and T. Hailperin [8] have all defined the probability...Theories of Logic and Probabilities, Open Court. 30. Carnap , R. (1960; 1st ed., 1950) Logical Foundations of Probability 2nd. ed., Univ. of Chicago...Press. 31. Carnap , R. & Jeffrey, R. C. (1971) Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability, Univ. of California Press. 32. Gaifman, H. (1964) Concerning

  18. Students' Understanding of Conditional Probability on Entering University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reaburn, Robyn

    2013-01-01

    An understanding of conditional probability is essential for students of inferential statistics as it is used in Null Hypothesis Tests. Conditional probability is also used in Bayes' theorem, in the interpretation of medical screening tests and in quality control procedures. This study examines the understanding of conditional probability of…

  19. Probability Constructs in Preschool Education and How they Are Taught

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Antonopoulos, Konstantinos; Zacharos, Konstantinos

    2013-01-01

    The teaching of Probability Theory constitutes a new trend in mathematics education internationally. The purpose of this research project was to explore the degree to which preschoolers understand key concepts of probabilistic thinking, such as sample space, the probability of an event and probability comparisons. At the same time, we evaluated an…

  20. Typical Versus Atypical Unpacking and Superadditive Probability Judgment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sloman, Steven; Rottenstreich, Yuval; Wisniewski, Edward; Hadjichristidis, Constantinos; Fox, Craig R.

    2004-01-01

    Probability judgments for packed descriptions of events (e.g., the probability that a businessman does business with a European country) are compared with judgments for unpacked descriptions of the same events (e.g., the probability that a businessman does business with England, France, or some other European country). The prediction that…

  1. Pig Data and Bayesian Inference on Multinomial Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kern, John C.

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian inference on multinomial probabilities is conducted based on data collected from the game Pass the Pigs[R]. Prior information on these probabilities is readily available from the instruction manual, and is easily incorporated in a Dirichlet prior. Posterior analysis of the scoring probabilities quantifies the discrepancy between empirical…

  2. Representation of Odds in Terms of Frequencies Reduces Probability Discounting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yi, Richard; Bickel, Warren K.

    2005-01-01

    In studies of probability discounting, the reduction in the value of an outcome as a result of its degree of uncertainty is calculated. Decision making studies suggest two issues with probability that may play a role in data obtained in probability discounting studies. The first issue involves the reduction of risk aversion via subdivision of…

  3. Applications of Quantum Probability Theory to Dynamic Decision Making

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-13

    Ever since Kahneman and Tversky’s extremely influential research (1974, and supported by AFOSR) exposing the failures of classical probability to...from a quantum probability theory explanation for the well-known research on probability judgment errors by Tversky and Kahneman (1983). A conjunctive

  4. 21 CFR 1316.10 - Administrative probable cause.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 9 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Administrative probable cause. 1316.10 Section..., PRACTICES, AND PROCEDURES Administrative Inspections § 1316.10 Administrative probable cause. If the judge or magistrate is satisfied that “administrative probable cause,” as defined in section 510(d)(1) of...

  5. Pig Data and Bayesian Inference on Multinomial Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kern, John C.

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian inference on multinomial probabilities is conducted based on data collected from the game Pass the Pigs[R]. Prior information on these probabilities is readily available from the instruction manual, and is easily incorporated in a Dirichlet prior. Posterior analysis of the scoring probabilities quantifies the discrepancy between empirical…

  6. Factors influencing reporting and harvest probabilities in North American geese

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zimmerman, G.S.; Moser, T.J.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; White, Gary C.; Caswell, D.F.

    2009-01-01

    We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US10,20,30,50, or100) and control (0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95 CI 0.690.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.

  7. Probability Distribution for Flowing Interval Spacing

    SciTech Connect

    S. Kuzio

    2004-09-22

    Fracture spacing is a key hydrologic parameter in analyses of matrix diffusion. Although the individual fractures that transmit flow in the saturated zone (SZ) cannot be identified directly, it is possible to determine the fractured zones that transmit flow from flow meter survey observations. The fractured zones that transmit flow as identified through borehole flow meter surveys have been defined in this report as flowing intervals. The flowing interval spacing is measured between the midpoints of each flowing interval. The determination of flowing interval spacing is important because the flowing interval spacing parameter is a key hydrologic parameter in SZ transport modeling, which impacts the extent of matrix diffusion in the SZ volcanic matrix. The output of this report is input to the ''Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Model Abstraction'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170042]). Specifically, the analysis of data and development of a data distribution reported herein is used to develop the uncertainty distribution for the flowing interval spacing parameter for the SZ transport abstraction model. Figure 1-1 shows the relationship of this report to other model reports that also pertain to flow and transport in the SZ. Figure 1-1 also shows the flow of key information among the SZ reports. It should be noted that Figure 1-1 does not contain a complete representation of the data and parameter inputs and outputs of all SZ reports, nor does it show inputs external to this suite of SZ reports. Use of the developed flowing interval spacing probability distribution is subject to the limitations of the assumptions discussed in Sections 5 and 6 of this analysis report. The number of fractures in a flowing interval is not known. Therefore, the flowing intervals are assumed to be composed of one flowing zone in the transport simulations. This analysis may overestimate the flowing interval spacing because the number of fractures that contribute to a flowing interval cannot be

  8. Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has a long history from meteorological modelling, as an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process the ensembles as the they often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters varying in space and time, while giving a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, which makes it unsuitable for our purpose. Our post-processing method of the ensembles is developed in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu), where we are making forecasts for whole Europe, and based on observations from around 700 catchments. As the target is flood forecasting, we are also more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than in a good prediction of the entire flow regime. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different meteorological forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to estimate the total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but we are adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process to force a spatial correlation of the parameters. The penalty takes

  9. Pattern formation, logistics, and maximum path probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkaldy, J. S.

    1985-05-01

    The concept of pattern formation, which to current researchers is a synonym for self-organization, carries the connotation of deductive logic together with the process of spontaneous inference. Defining a pattern as an equivalence relation on a set of thermodynamic objects, we establish that a large class of irreversible pattern-forming systems, evolving along idealized quasisteady paths, approaches the stable steady state as a mapping upon the formal deductive imperatives of a propositional function calculus. In the preamble the classical reversible thermodynamics of composite systems is analyzed as an externally manipulated system of space partitioning and classification based on ideal enclosures and diaphragms. The diaphragms have discrete classification capabilities which are designated in relation to conserved quantities by descriptors such as impervious, diathermal, and adiabatic. Differentiability in the continuum thermodynamic calculus is invoked as equivalent to analyticity and consistency in the underlying class or sentential calculus. The seat of inference, however, rests with the thermodynamicist. In the transition to an irreversible pattern-forming system the defined nature of the composite reservoirs remains, but a given diaphragm is replaced by a pattern-forming system which by its nature is a spontaneously evolving volume partitioner and classifier of invariants. The seat of volition or inference for the classification system is thus transferred from the experimenter or theoretician to the diaphragm, and with it the full deductive facility. The equivalence relations or partitions associated with the emerging patterns may thus be associated with theorems of the natural pattern-forming calculus. The entropy function, together with its derivatives, is the vehicle which relates the logistics of reservoirs and diaphragms to the analog logistics of the continuum. Maximum path probability or second-order differentiability of the entropy in isolation are

  10. Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used as a method in meteorological modelling to indicate the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, as the ensembles often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process them. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters which are different in space and time, but still can give a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, and cannot directly be regionalized in the way we would like, so we suggest a different path below. The target of our work is to create a mean forecast with uncertainty bounds for a large number of locations in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu) We are therefore more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than the forecast skill of lower runoff levels. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to find a total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but assuring that they have some spatial correlation, by adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process. This can in some cases have a slight negative

  11. Surprisingly rational: probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.

    PubMed

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2014-07-01

    The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about probability but instead use heuristics, which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes yield systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot reason with probabilities has become a truism. We present a simple alternative to this view, where people reason about probability according to probability theory but are subject to random variation or noise in the reasoning process. In this account the effect of noise is canceled for some probabilistic expressions. Analyzing data from 2 experiments, we find that, for these expressions, people's probability judgments are strikingly close to those required by probability theory. For other expressions, this account produces systematic deviations in probability estimates. These deviations explain 4 reliable biases in human probabilistic reasoning (conservatism, subadditivity, conjunction, and disjunction fallacies). These results suggest that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory and that biases in those judgments are due to the effects of random noise.

  12. Probability expression for changeable and changeless uncertainties: an implicit test

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yun; Du, Xue-Lei; Rao, Li-Lin; Li, Shu

    2014-01-01

    “Everything changes and nothing remains still.”We designed three implicit studies to understand how people react or adapt to a rapidly changing world by testing whether verbal probability is better in expressing changeable uncertainty while numerical probability is better in expressing unchangeable uncertainty. We found that the “verbal-changeable” combination in implicit tasks was more compatible than the “numerical-changeable” combination. Furthermore, the “numerical-changeless” combination was more compatible than the “verbal-changeless” combination. Thus, a novel feature called “changeability” was proposed to describe the changeable nature of verbal probability. However, numerical probability is a better carrier of changeless uncertainty than verbal probability. These results extend the domain of probability predictions and enrich our general understanding of communication with verbal and numerical probabilities. Given that the world around us is constantly changing, this “changeability” feature may play a major role in preparing for uncertainty. PMID:25431566

  13. Signal probability effects on high-workload vigilance tasks.

    PubMed

    Matthews, G

    1996-09-01

    Signal probability is an important influence on vigilance. Typically, higher signal probability is associated with higher hit rate, lower response criterion, and lower response:signal ratio. However, signal probability effects on demanding, high-workload vigilance tasks have not been investigated. It is believed that attentional resources become depleted during performance of such tasks, leading to perceptual sensitivity decrements. Forty subjects performed high- (.35) and low- (.10) probability versions of a demanding vigilance task. Results differed in two important respects from those previously obtained with less demanding tasks. First, the decrement in perceptual sensitivity over time was greater for the high-probability task. Second, there were no effects of signal probability on response criterion. Subjective workload was higher for the high-probability task. Implications of the data for resource-depletion and expectancy theories of vigilance are discussed.

  14. Probability shapes perceptual precision: A study in orientation estimation.

    PubMed

    Jabar, Syaheed B; Anderson, Britt

    2015-12-01

    Probability is known to affect perceptual estimations, but an understanding of mechanisms is lacking. Moving beyond binary classification tasks, we had naive participants report the orientation of briefly viewed gratings where we systematically manipulated contingent probability. Participants rapidly developed faster and more precise estimations for high-probability tilts. The shapes of their error distributions, as indexed by a kurtosis measure, also showed a distortion from Gaussian. This kurtosis metric was robust, capturing probability effects that were graded, contextual, and varying as a function of stimulus orientation. Our data can be understood as a probability-induced reduction in the variability or "shape" of estimation errors, as would be expected if probability affects the perceptual representations. As probability manipulations are an implicit component of many endogenous cuing paradigms, changes at the perceptual level could account for changes in performance that might have traditionally been ascribed to "attention." (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Conditional Probabilities for Large Events Estimated by Small Earthquake Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Yi-Hsuan; Chen, Chien-Chih; Li, Hsien-Chi

    2016-01-01

    We examined forecasting quiescence and activation models to obtain the conditional probability that a large earthquake will occur in a specific time period on different scales in Taiwan. The basic idea of the quiescence and activation models is to use earthquakes that have magnitudes larger than the completeness magnitude to compute the expected properties of large earthquakes. We calculated the probability time series for the whole Taiwan region and for three subareas of Taiwan—the western, eastern, and northeastern Taiwan regions—using 40 years of data from the Central Weather Bureau catalog. In the probability time series for the eastern and northeastern Taiwan regions, a high probability value is usually yielded in cluster events such as events with foreshocks and events that all occur in a short time period. In addition to the time series, we produced probability maps by calculating the conditional probability for every grid point at the time just before a large earthquake. The probability maps show that high probability values are yielded around the epicenter before a large earthquake. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the probability maps demonstrate that the probability maps are not random forecasts, but also suggest that lowering the magnitude of a forecasted large earthquake may not improve the forecast method itself. From both the probability time series and probability maps, it can be observed that the probability obtained from the quiescence model increases before a large earthquake and the probability obtained from the activation model increases as the large earthquakes occur. The results lead us to conclude that the quiescence model has better forecast potential than the activation model.

  16. Partial avoidance contingencies: Absolute omission and punishment probabilities1

    PubMed Central

    Flye, Barbaba L.; Gibbon, John

    1979-01-01

    Avoidance contingencies were defined by the absolute probability of the conjunction of responding or not responding with shock or no shock. The “omission” probability (ρ00) is the probability of no response and no shock. The “punishment” probability (ρ11) is the probability of both a response and a shock. The traditional avoidance contingency never omits shock on nonresponse trials (ρ00=0) and never presents shock on response trials (ρ11=0). Rats were trained on a discrete-trial paradigm with no intertrial interval. The first lever response changed an auditory stimulus for the remainder of the trial. Shocks were delivered only at the end of each trial cycle. After initial training under the traditional avoidance contingency, one group of rats experienced changes in omission probability (ρ00>0), holding punishment probability at zero. The second group of rats were studied under different punishment probability values (ρ11>0), holding omission probability at zero. Data from subjects in the omission group looked similar, showing graded decrements in responding with increasing probability of omission. These subjects approximately “matched” their nonresponse frequencies to the programmed probability of shock omission on nonresponse trials, producing a very low and approximately constant conditional probability of shock given no response. Subjects in the punishment group showed different sensitivity to increasing absolute punishment probability. Some subjects decreased responding to low values as punishment probability increased, while others continued to respond at substantial levels even when shock was inevitable on all trials (noncontingent shock schedule). These results confirm an asymmetry between two dimensions of partial avoidance contingencies. When the consequences of not responding included occasional omission of shock, all subjects showed graded sensitivity to changes in omission frequency. When the consequences of responding included

  17. Young Star Probably Ejected From Triple System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2003-01-01

    Astronomers analyzing nearly 20 years of data from the National Science Foundation's Very Large Array radio telescope have discovered that a small star in a multiple-star system in the constellation Taurus probably has been ejected from the system after a close encounter with one of the system's more-massive components, presumed to be a compact double star. This is the first time any such event has been observed. Path of Small Star, 1983-2001 "Our analysis shows a drastic change in the orbit of this young star after it made a close approach to another object in the system," said Luis Rodriguez of the Institute of Astronomy of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). "The young star was accelerated to a large velocity by the close approach, and certainly now is in a very different, more remote orbit, and may even completely escape its companions," said Laurent Loinard, leader of the research team that also included Monica Rodriguez in addition to Luis Rodriguez. The UNAM astronomers presented their findings at the American Astronomical Society's meeting in Seattle, WA. The discovery of this chaotic event will be important for advancing our understanding of classical dynamic astronomy and of how stars evolve, including possibly providing an explanation for the production of the mysterious "brown dwarfs," the astronomers said. The scientists analyzed VLA observations of T Tauri, a multiple system of young stars some 450 light-years from Earth. The observations were made from 1983 to 2001. The T Tauri system includes a "Northern" star, the famous star that gives its name to the class of young visible stars, and a "Southern" system of stars, all orbiting each other. The VLA data were used to track the orbit of the smaller Southern star around the larger Southern object, presumed to be a pair of stars orbiting each other closely. The astronomers' plot of the smaller star's orbit shows that it followed an apparently elliptical orbit around its twin companions

  18. ERP Correlates of Verbal and Numerical Probabilities in Risky Choices: A Two-Stage Probability Processing View

    PubMed Central

    Li, Shu; Du, Xue-Lei; Li, Qi; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Wang, Yun; Rao, Li-Lin

    2016-01-01

    Two kinds of probability expressions, verbal and numerical, have been used to characterize the uncertainty that people face. However, the question of whether verbal and numerical probabilities are cognitively processed in a similar manner remains unresolved. From a levels-of-processing perspective, verbal and numerical probabilities may be processed differently during early sensory processing but similarly in later semantic-associated operations. This event-related potential (ERP) study investigated the neural processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. The results showed that verbal probability and numerical probability elicited different N1 amplitudes but that verbal and numerical probabilities elicited similar N2 and P3 waveforms in response to different levels of probability (high to low). These results were consistent with a levels-of-processing framework and suggest some internal consistency between the cognitive processing of verbal and numerical probabilities in risky choices. Our findings shed light on possible mechanism underlying probability expression and may provide the neural evidence to support the translation of verbal to numerical probabilities (or vice versa). PMID:26834612

  19. GNSS integer ambiguity validation based on posterior probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Zemin; Bian, Shaofeng

    2015-10-01

    GNSS integer ambiguity validation is considered to be a challenge task for decades. Several kinds of validation tests are developed and widely used in these years, but theoretical basis is their weakness. Ambiguity validation theoretically is an issue of hypothesis test. In the frame of Bayesian hypothesis testing, posterior probability is the canonical standard that statistical decision should be based on. In this contribution, (i) we derive the posterior probability of the fixed ambiguity based on the Bayesian principle and modify it for practice ambiguity validation. (ii) The optimal property of the posterior probability test is proved based on an extended Neyman-Pearson lemma. Since validation failure rate is the issue users most concerned about, (iii) we derive the failure rate upper bound of the posterior probability test, so the user can use the posterior probability test either in the fixed posterior probability or in the fixed failure rate way. Simulated as well as real observed data are used for experimental validations. The results show that (i) the posterior probability test is the most effective within the R-ratio test, difference test, ellipsoidal integer aperture test and posterior probability test, (ii) the posterior probability test is computational efficient and (iii) the failure rate estimation for posterior probability test is useful.

  20. Trial type probability modulates the cost of antisaccades

    PubMed Central

    Chiau, Hui-Yan; Tseng, Philip; Su, Jia-Han; Tzeng, Ovid J. L.; Hung, Daisy L.; Muggleton, Neil G.

    2011-01-01

    The antisaccade task, where eye movements are made away from a target, has been used to investigate the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. Antisaccades usually have longer saccade latencies than prosaccades, the so-called antisaccade cost. Recent studies have shown that this antisaccade cost can be modulated by event probability. This may mean that the antisaccade cost can be reduced, or even reversed, if the probability of surrounding events favors the execution of antisaccades. The probabilities of prosaccades and antisaccades were systematically manipulated by changing the proportion of a certain type of trial in an interleaved pro/antisaccades task. We aimed to disentangle the intertwined relationship between trial type probabilities and the antisaccade cost with the ultimate goal of elucidating how probabilities of trial types modulate human flexible behaviors, as well as the characteristics of such modulation effects. To this end, we examined whether implicit trial type probability can influence saccade latencies and also manipulated the difficulty of cue discriminability to see how effects of trial type probability would change when the demand on visual perceptual analysis was high or low. A mixed-effects model was applied to the analysis to dissect the factors contributing to the modulation effects of trial type probabilities. Our results suggest that the trial type probability is one robust determinant of antisaccade cost. These findings highlight the importance of implicit probability in the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. PMID:21543748

  1. More Diagnosis of Solar Flare Probability from Chromosphere Image Sequences

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-28

    AFRL-RV-PS- AFRL-RV-PS- TR-2012-0194 TR-2012-0194 MORE DIAGNOSIS OF SOLAR FLARE PROBABILITY FROM CHROMOSPHERE IMAGE...1 Oct 2011 to 07 Sep 2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE More Diagnosis of Solar Flare Probability from Chromosphere Image Sequences 5a...We continued our investigation of the utility of optical observations of the solar chromosphere in the diagnosis of flare probability. Because we felt

  2. Implicit learning of fifth- and sixth-order sequential probabilities.

    PubMed

    Remillard, Gilbert

    2010-10-01

    Serial reaction time (SRT) task studies have established that people can implicitly learn sequential contingencies as complex as fourth-order probabilities. The present study examined people's ability to learn fifth-order (Experiment 1) and sixth-order (Experiment 2) probabilities. Remarkably, people learned fifth- and sixth-order probabilities. This suggests that the implicit sequence learning mechanism can operate over a range of at least seven sequence elements.

  3. Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Murray, Richard F; Patel, Khushbu; Yee, Alan

    2015-06-01

    Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models' performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods provide new tools

  4. Path probability of stochastic motion: A functional approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hattori, Masayuki; Abe, Sumiyoshi

    2016-06-01

    The path probability of a particle undergoing stochastic motion is studied by the use of functional technique, and the general formula is derived for the path probability distribution functional. The probability of finding paths inside a tube/band, the center of which is stipulated by a given path, is analytically evaluated in a way analogous to continuous measurements in quantum mechanics. Then, the formalism developed here is applied to the stochastic dynamics of stock price in finance.

  5. Exponential convergence rates for weighted sums in noncommutative probability space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Byoung Jin; Ji, Un Cig

    2016-11-01

    We study exponential convergence rates for weighted sums of successive independent random variables in a noncommutative probability space of which the weights are in a von Neumann algebra. Then we prove a noncommutative extension of the result for the exponential convergence rate by Baum, Katz and Read. As applications, we first study a large deviation type inequality for weighted sums in a noncommutative probability space, and secondly we study exponential convergence rates for weighted free additive convolution sums of probability measures.

  6. Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Richard F.; Patel, Khushbu; Yee, Alan

    2015-01-01

    Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models’ performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods provide new tools

  7. New probability table treatment in MCNP for unresolved resonances

    SciTech Connect

    Carter, L.L.; Little, R.C.; Hendricks, J.S.; MacFarlane, R.E.

    1998-04-01

    An upgrade for MCNP has been implemented to sample the neutron cross sections in the unresolved resonance range using probability tables. These probability tables are generated with the cross section processor code NJOY, by using the evaluated statistical information about the resonances to calculate cumulative probability distribution functions for the microscopic total cross section. The elastic, fission, and radiative capture cross sections are also tabulated as the average values of each of these partials conditional upon the value of the total. This paper summarizes how the probability tables are utilized in this MCNP upgrade and compares this treatment with the approximate smooth treatment for some example problems.

  8. Oscillations in probability distributions for stochastic gene expression

    SciTech Connect

    Petrosyan, K. G. Hu, Chin-Kun

    2014-05-28

    The phenomenon of oscillations in probability distribution functions of number of components is found for a model of stochastic gene expression. It takes place in cases of low levels of molecules or strong intracellular noise. The oscillations distinguish between more probable even and less probable odd number of particles. The even-odd symmetry restores as the number of molecules increases with the probability distribution function tending to Poisson distribution. We discuss the possibility of observation of the phenomenon in gene, protein, and mRNA expression experiments.

  9. Anytime synthetic projection: Maximizing the probability of goal satisfaction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drummond, Mark; Bresina, John L.

    1990-01-01

    A projection algorithm is presented for incremental control rule synthesis. The algorithm synthesizes an initial set of goal achieving control rules using a combination of situation probability and estimated remaining work as a search heuristic. This set of control rules has a certain probability of satisfying the given goal. The probability is incrementally increased by synthesizing additional control rules to handle 'error' situations the execution system is likely to encounter when following the initial control rules. By using situation probabilities, the algorithm achieves a computationally effective balance between the limited robustness of triangle tables and the absolute robustness of universal plans.

  10. Forward and backward location probabilities for sorbing solutes in groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neupauer, R. M.; Wilson, J. L.

    Location probability can be used to describe the likely position of a solute particle as it travels through an aquifer. Forward location probability describes the likely future positions of a particle, and can be used to predict the movement of a contaminant plume. Backward location probability describes the likely prior positions of a solute particle, and can be used to identify sources of contamination. For sorbing solutes, the probability distributions must also account for the phase (aqueous or sorbed) of a solute particle. We present new phase-dependent forward and backward location probabilities to describe transport of a solute undergoing linear non-equilibrium sorption. The effects of sorption are incorporated directly into the governing equations that are used to calculate the probability distributions. The shape and magnitude of the distributions depend on the phase of the contamination at both the source (or prior location) and receptor (or future location). These probabilities are related to adjoint states of concentration. Using adjoint theory, Bayes' theorem, and a clever transformation, we develop a model to efficiently calculate backward location probabilities for one or a few receptors. We illustrate important features of backward location probabilities for a sorbing solute with a hypothetical, one-dimensional confined aquifer, and we demonstrate their use in identifying sources of contamination for a trichloroethylene plume at the Massachusetts Military Reservation using a three-dimensional numerical model.

  11. Measuring local context as context-word probabilities.

    PubMed

    Hahn, Lance W

    2012-06-01

    Context enables readers to quickly recognize a related word but disturbs recognition of unrelated words. The relatedness of a final word to a sentence context has been estimated as the probability (cloze probability) that a participant will complete a sentence with a word. In four studies, I show that it is possible to estimate local context-word relatedness based on common language usage. Conditional probabilities were calculated for sentences with published cloze probabilities. Four-word contexts produced conditional probabilities significantly correlated with cloze probabilities, but usage statistics were unavailable for some sentence contexts. The present studies demonstrate that a composite context measure based on conditional probabilities for one- to four-word contexts and the presence of a final period represents all of the sentences and maintains significant correlations (.25, .52, .53) with cloze probabilities. Finally, the article provides evidence for the effectiveness of this measure by showing that local context varies in ways that are similar to the N400 effect and that are consistent with a role for local context in reading. The Supplemental materials include local context measures for three cloze probability data sets.

  12. The relationship among probability of failure, landslide susceptibility and rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Chuen Ming; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

    2016-04-01

    Landslide hazard included spatial probability, temporal probability and size probability. Many researches evaluate spatial probability in landslide susceptibility, but it is not many in temporal probability and size probability. Because of it must own enough landslide inventories that covered entire study area and large time range. In seismology, using Poisson model to calculate temporal probability is a well-known inference. However, it required a long term and complete records to analyze. In Taiwan, the remote sensing technology made us to establish multi landslide inventories easily, but it is still lack in time series. Thus the landslide susceptibility through changed different return period triggering factor was often assumed landslide hazard. Compare with landslide inventory, collected a long tern rainfall gauge records is easy. However, landslide susceptibility is a relative spatial probability. No matter using different event or analyzing in different area, the landslide susceptibility is not equal. So which model is representative that is difficult to be decided. This study adopted histogram matching to construct basic landslide susceptibility of the region. Then the relationship between landslide susceptibility, probability of failure and rainfall in multi-event can be found out.

  13. On the Role of Prior Probability in Adiabatic Quantum Algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Jie; Lu, Songfeng; Yang, Liping

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we study the role of prior probability on the efficiency of quantum local adiabatic search algorithm. The following aspects for prior probability are found here: firstly, only the probabilities of marked states affect the running time of the adiabatic evolution; secondly, the prior probability can be used for improving the efficiency of the adiabatic algorithm; thirdly, like the usual quantum adiabatic evolution, the running time for the case of multiple solution states where the number of marked elements are smaller enough than the size of the set assigned that contains them can be significantly bigger than that of the case where the assigned set only contains all the marked states.

  14. Oscillations in probability distributions for stochastic gene expression.

    PubMed

    Petrosyan, K G; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2014-05-28

    The phenomenon of oscillations in probability distribution functions of number of components is found for a model of stochastic gene expression. It takes place in cases of low levels of molecules or strong intracellular noise. The oscillations distinguish between more probable even and less probable odd number of particles. The even-odd symmetry restores as the number of molecules increases with the probability distribution function tending to Poisson distribution. We discuss the possibility of observation of the phenomenon in gene, protein, and mRNA expression experiments.

  15. Probabilistic Cloning of Three Real States with Optimal Success Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rui, Pin-shu

    2017-03-01

    We investigate the probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) of three real states with average probability distribution. To get the analytic forms of the optimal success probabilities we assume that the three states have only two pairwise inner products. Based on the optimal success probabilities, we derive the explicit form of 1 →2 PQC for cloning three real states. The unitary operation needed in the PQC process is worked out too. The optimal success probabilities are also generalized to the M→N PQC case.

  16. Ordering genes: controlling the decision-error probabilities.

    PubMed Central

    Rogatko, A; Zacks, S

    1993-01-01

    Determination of the relative gene order on chromosomes is of critical importance in the construction of human gene maps. In this paper we develop a sequential algorithm for gene ordering. We start by comparing three sequential procedures to order three genes on the basis of Bayesian posterior probabilities, maximum-likelihood ratio, and minimal recombinant class. In the second part of the paper we extend sequential procedure based on the posterior probabilities to the general case of g genes. We present a theorem that states that the predicted average probability of committing a decision error, associated with a Bayesian sequential procedure that accepts the hypothesis of a gene-order configuration with posterior probability equal to or greater than pi *, is smaller than 1 - pi *. This theorem holds irrespective of the number of genes, the genetic model, and the source of genetic information. The theorem is an extension of a classical result of Wald, concerning the sum of the actual and the nominal error probabilities in the sequential probability ratio test of two hypotheses. A stepwise strategy for ordering a large number of genes, with control over the decision-error probabilities, is discussed. An asymptotic approximation is provided, which facilitates the calculations with existing computer software for gene mapping, of the posterior probabilities of an order and the error probabilities. We illustrate with some simulations that the stepwise ordering is an efficient procedure. PMID:8488844

  17. Effectiveness of Incorporating Adversary Probability Perception Modeling in Security Games

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-01-30

    security game (SSG) algorithms. Given recent work on human decision-making, we adjust the existing subjective utility function to account for...data from previous security game experiments with human subjects. Our results show the incorporation of probability perceptions into the SUQR can...provide improvements in the ability to predict probabilities of attack in certain games .

  18. A Probability Model of Accuracy in Deception Detection Experiments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Hee Sun; Levine, Timothy R.

    2001-01-01

    Extends the recent work on the veracity effect in deception detection. Explains the probabilistic nature of a receiver's accuracy in detecting deception and analyzes a receiver's detection of deception in terms of set theory and conditional probability. Finds that accuracy is shown to be a function of the relevant conditional probability and the…

  19. Teaching Basic Probability in Undergraduate Statistics or Management Science Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naidu, Jaideep T.; Sanford, John F.

    2017-01-01

    Standard textbooks in core Statistics and Management Science classes present various examples to introduce basic probability concepts to undergraduate business students. These include tossing of a coin, throwing a die, and examples of that nature. While these are good examples to introduce basic probability, we use improvised versions of Russian…

  20. Stochastic inequality probabilities for adaptively randomized clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Cook, John D; Nadarajah, Saralees

    2006-06-01

    We examine stochastic inequality probabilities of the form P (X > Y) and P (X > max (Y, Z)) where X, Y, and Z are random variables with beta, gamma, or inverse gamma distributions. We discuss the applications of such inequality probabilities to adaptively randomized clinical trials as well as methods for calculating their values.