Gila Wilderness, New Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ratte, J.C.; Stotelmeyer, R.B.

1984-01-01

Geologic, geochemical, and geophysical indicators delineated during a study of the Gila Wilderness by the USGS and USBM from 1968 to 1971 indicate that there are areas of probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential for gold, silver, tellurium, molybdenum, copper, lead, zinc, and fluorite. The areas which have resource potential lie along both sides of the western and southwestern boundaries of the wilderness, and adjacent to the access corridor to the Gila Cliff Dwellings National Monument in the eastern part of the wilderness. Areas marked by geothermal springs along Turkey Creek and the Middle Fork of the Gila River have amore » probable potential for geothermal energy. No other energy-resource potential was identified within the study area.« less

WHETSTONE ROADLESS AREA, ARIZONA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wrucke, Chester T.; McColly, Robert A.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey conducted has shown that areas in and adjacent to the Whetstone Roadless Area, Arizona have a substantiated resource potential for copper, lead, gold, silver, and quartz, and a probable mineral-resource potential for copper silver, lead, gold, molybdenum, tungsten, uranium, and gypsum. Copper and silver occur in a small vein deposit in the southwestern part of the roadless area. Copper, lead, silver, gold, and molybdenum are known in veins associated with a porphyry copper deposit in a reentrant near the southern border of the roadless area. Vein deposits of tungsten and uranium are possible in the northeast part of the roadless area near areas of known production of these commodities. Demonstrated resources of quartz for smelter flux extend into the roadless area from the Ricketts mine. Areas of probable potential for gypsum resources also occur within the roadless area. No potential for fossil fuel resources was identified in the study.

HELLS HOLE ROADLESS AREA, ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ratte, James C.; Briggs, John P.

1984-01-01

The Hells Hole Roadless Area encompasses about 50 sq mi along the Arizona-New Mexico State line. The area was studied and the southeastern part was determined to have a probable mineral-resource potential for the discovery of base- or precious-metal deposits related to igneous intrusions of middle to late Tertiary age. There also is a probable resource potential for porphyry copper mineralization of Laramide age beneath the Tertiary volcanic rocks that cover the area. There is little promise for the occurrence of energy resources in the area. Additional geochemical and petrological studies of the rocks of the Hells Hole volcanic center and modeling of geophysical anomalies are necessary to adequately appraise the mineral-resource potential of the area.

BEARTOOTH PRIMITIVE AREA AND VICINITY, MONTANA AND WYOMING.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simons, Frank S.; Van Noy, Ronald M.

1984-01-01

The Beartooth area comprises about 600 sq mi in the central part of the Beartooth Mountains in South-central Montana and northwestern Wyoming just northeast of Yellowstone National Park. A mineral-resource survey concluded that one area of probable and one of substantiated mineral-resource potential are present in the Beartooth area. Three small mining districts (Red Lodge, Stillwater, and Independence) and one possibly major district (Cooke City) adjoin the Beartooth area but lie almost entirely outside it; the northern part of the Cooke City mining district, around Goose Lake, is within the area. This area has substantiated resource potential for copper, silver, gold, and platinum-group elements. The Red Lodge mining district extends into the eastern part of the area and has a probable chrome resource potential. There is little promise for the discovery of energy resources in the area.

MINARETS WILDERNESS AND ADJACENT AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huber, N. King; Thurber, Horace K.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Minarets Wilderness and adjacent areas in the central Sierra Nevada, California was conducted. The results of the survey indicate that the study area has a substantiated resource potential for small deposits of copper, silver, zinc, lead, and iron, and a probable mineral-resource potential for molybdenum. No energy-resource potential was identified in the study.

MOUNT HOOD WILDERNESS AND ADJACENT AREAS, OREGON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keith, T.E.C.; Causey, J.D.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Mount Hood Wilderness, Oregon, was conducted. Geochemical data indicate two areas of substantiated mineral-resource potential containing weak epithermal mineralization: an area of the north side of Zigzag Mountain where vein-type lead-zinc-silver deposits occur and an area of the south side of Zigzag Mountain, where the upper part of a quartz diorite pluton has propylitic alteration associated with mineralization of copper, gold, silver, lead, and zinc in discontinuous veins. Geothermal-resource potential for low- to intermediate-temperature (less than 248 degree F) hot-water systems in the wilderness is probable in these areas. Part of the wilderness is classified as a Known Geothermal Resource Area (KGRA), which is considered to have probable geothermal-resource potential, and two parts of the wilderness have been included in geothermal lease areas.

WEST NEEDLE WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Loenen, Richard E.; Scott, David C.

1984-01-01

The West Needle Wilderness Study Area, southwestern Colorado, was evaluated for mineral-resource potential. An area extending westward into the wilderness near the Elk Park mine, has a probable mineral-resource potential for uranium. Uranium resources, and associated silver, nickel, cobalt, and copper, are located at the Elk Park mine, directly adjacent to the eastern study area boundary. No potential for other mineral or energy resources was identified in this study.

HIGH UINTAS PRIMITIVE AREA, UTAH.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crittenden, Max D.; Sheridan, Michael J.

1984-01-01

Mineral surveys in the High Uintas Primitive Area, Utah and the additions subsequently proposed concluded that the area has little promise for mineral resources. Of the areas around the fringes, a strip along the north flank fault can be classed as having probable energy-resource potential for oil and gas. The oil and gas potential could be tested by additional seismic studies followed by drilling. Much of the necessary information probably could be obtained without drilling within the primitive area itself.

INDIAN PEAKS WILDERNESS, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearson, Robert C.; Speltz, Charles N.

1984-01-01

The Indian Peaks Wilderness northwest of Denver is partly within the Colorado Mineral Belt, and the southeast part of it contains all the geologic characteristics associated with the several nearby mining districts. Two deposits have demonstrated mineral resources, one of copper and the other of uranium; both are surrounded by areas with probable potential. Two other areas have probable resource potential for copper, gold, and possibly molydenum. Detailed gravity and magnetic studies in the southeast part of the Indian Peaks Wilderness might detect in the subsurface igneous bodies that may be mineralized. Physical exploration such as drilling would be necessary to determine more precisely the copper resources at the Roaring Fork locality and uranium resources at Wheeler Basin.

Using widely spaced observations of land use, forest attributes, and intrusions to map resource potential and human impact probability

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis

2000-01-01

Scant information exists about the spatial extent of human impact on forest resource supplies, i.e., depreciative and nonforest uses. I used observations of ground-sampled land use and intrusions on forest land to map the probability of resource use and human impact for broad areas. Data came from a seven-state survey region (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,...

Using widely spaced observations of land use, forest attributes, and intrusions to map resource potential and human impact probability

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis

2000-01-01

Scant information exists about the spatial extent of human impact on forest resource supplies, i.e., depreciative and nonforest uses. I used observations of ground-sampled land use and intrusions on forest land to map the probability of resource use and human impact for broad areas. Data came from a seven State survey region (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,...

Mineral resource potential map of the Gila-San Francisco Wilderness Study Area, Graham and Greenlee counties, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richter, Donlad H.; Klein, Douglas P.; Lawrence, Viki A.; Lane, Michael

1982-01-01

The mineral resource potential of the Gila-San Francisco Wilderness Study Area (AZ-040-022/023/024) is low (fig. 2). Although favorable geologic environments for placer gold deposits and manganese vein deposits are present in the study area, the probability of discovering economically exploitable deposits of these metals is low, and not encouraging. Even more speculative is the study area's porphyry copper potential which is based solely on the possibility of favorable host terranes underlying the study area at depth. The study area does contain substantial deposits of pumice, but their economic significance is probably minor. A part of the study area has been previously designated a Known Geothermal Resource Area (KGRA).

Thorium resources of selected regions in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staatz, Mortimer Hay; Hall, R.B.; Macke, D.L.; Armbrustmacher, T.J.; Brownfield, I.K.

1980-01-01

Thorium resources have been assessed in a previous report entitled 'Principal thorium resources in the United States' (Staatz and others, 1979) for (1) veins in the larger districts, {2) massive carbonatites, {3) disseminated deposits, and {4) stream placers of North and South Carolina. This report is a sequel to that report and assesses thorium resources in {1) Florida beach placers, (2) Idaho stream placers, (3) veins and pipes in the Bokan Mountain district, Alaska, (4) carbonatite dikes, and {5) apatite-bearing iron deposits near Mineville, New York. Thorium resources for each of these categories are divided into reserves and probable potential resources. When data are available, each of these is then divided into the following cost categories: (1) the amount of ThO2 producible at a cost of less than $15/lb (per pound), (2) the amount producible at a cost of between $15 and $30/lb, and (3) the amount producible at a cost of between $30 and $50/1b. Beach placers of northern Florida have reserves of 16,200 short tons of ThO2 and probable potential resources of 5,120 tons of ThO2. These deposits are heavy-mineral placers that are mined for a variety of minerals--principally titanium minerals and zircon. The thorium-bearing mineral in these placers, monazite, makes up only a minor part of the heavy minerals. Therefore, production of ThO2 from these placers is dependent on the markets for other heavy minerals. Assuming the market for other heavy minerals to be the same as in 1978, then 98 percent of the ThO2 could be produced for less than $15/lb. If, however, no other coproducts were produced, then the cost of producing ThO2 would be greater than $50/1b. Stream placers containing thorium are found along many streams that drain the Idaho batholith, but most are too small to add significantly to the thorium resources. The resources of the five largest districts, each of which consists of at least several individual placers, have been tabulated. These districts are (1) Long Valley, (2) Bear Valley, (3) Burgdorf-Warren area, (4) Boise Basin, and (5) Ell City-Newsome area. These five areas have reserves of 10,100 short tons of ThO2 and probable potential resources of 10,300 tons. Long Valley contains about half the reserves--5,680 tons of ThO2--and all the probable potential resources. Monazite is the most important heavy mineral in all except the Bear Valley deposit. Here euxenite, although not quite as abundant as monazite, is a more important mineral, because it contains approximately 14.5 percent U3O8 in addition to 5 percent ThO2. Reserves in this placer amount to 1,605 short tons of ThO2 and 1,475 tons of U3O8. Eighty-two percent of the reserves and all of the probable potential resources can be produced at less than $30/1b of ThO2. The lower cost reserves are concentrated in the Long and Bear Valley areas. Here 64 percent of the ThO2 can be produced for less than $15/1b and another 29 percent of the ThO2 at between $15 and $30/lb. Sixteen veins and pipelike bodies are evaluated in the Bokan Mountain area of southeastern Alaska. The district contains other deposits that are too poorly exposed to make meaningful resource estimates. Reserves estimated in this district are 1,440 short tons of ThO2; probable potential resources amount to 2,320 tons of ThO2. About 99 percent of these resources are in deposits whose grade is at least 0.2 percent ThO2. In addition, these deposits contain reserves of 420 tons of U3O8 and probable potential resources of 820 tons of U3O8. Eighty-two percent of the reserves and probable potential resources can be produced at less than $15/lb. The average grade of this ore is 0.54 percent ThO2 and 0 15 percent U3O8. Some carbonatite dikes, although generally not as high grade as the veins, contain resources of thorium. Carbonatite dikes in the following six districts were investigated: (1) Wet Mountains, Colo.; (2) Powderhorn district, Colorado; (3) Mountain Pass area, California; (4) Bearpaw

HUNTER-FRYINGPAN WILDERNESS AND PORPHYRY MOUNTAIN WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ludington, Steve; Ellis, Clarence E.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Hunter-Fryingpan Wilderness and the Porphyry Mountain Wilderness study area, Colorado was conducted. Substantiated gold and silver resource potential was identified in one area and a surrounding area is judged to have probable mineral-resource potential for gold and silver. No other mineral or energy resources were identified in the study.

Integrating Geologic, Geochemical and Geophysical Data in a Statistical Analysis of Geothermal Resource Probability across the State of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lautze, N. C.; Ito, G.; Thomas, D. M.; Hinz, N.; Frazer, L. N.; Waller, D.

2015-12-01

Hawaii offers the opportunity to gain knowledge and develop geothermal energy on the only oceanic hotspot in the U.S. As a remote island state, Hawaii is more dependent on imported fossil fuel than any other state in the U.S., and energy prices are 3 to 4 times higher than the national average. The only proven resource, located on Hawaii Island's active Kilauea volcano, is a region of high geologic risk; other regions of probable resource exist but lack adequate assessment. The last comprehensive statewide geothermal assessment occurred in 1983 and found a potential resource on all islands (Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, 1983). Phase 1 of a Department of Energy funded project to assess the probability of geothermal resource potential statewide in Hawaii was recently completed. The execution of this project was divided into three main tasks: (1) compile all historical and current data for Hawaii that is relevant to geothermal resources into a single Geographic Information System (GIS) project; (2) analyze and rank these datasets in terms of their relevance to the three primary properties of a viable geothermal resource: heat (H), fluid (F), and permeability (P); and (3) develop and apply a Bayesian statistical method to incorporate the ranks and produce probability models that map out Hawaii's geothermal resource potential. Here, we summarize the project methodology and present maps that highlight both high prospect areas as well as areas that lack enough data to make an adequate assessment. We suggest a path for future exploration activities in Hawaii, and discuss how this method of analysis can be adapted to other regions and other types of resources. The figure below shows multiple layers of GIS data for Hawaii Island. Color shades indicate crustal density anomalies produced from inversions of gravity (Flinders et al. 2013). Superimposed on this are mapped calderas, rift zones, volcanic cones, and faults (following Sherrod et al., 2007). These features were used to identify probable locations of intrusive rock (heat) and permeability.

MAROON BELLS-SNOWMASS WILDERNESS AND ADDITIONS, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Val L.; Weisner, Robert C.

1984-01-01

The Maroon Bells-Snowmass Wilderness and Additions, located in western Colorado, was examined for mineral potential. Evidence of mineralization is widespread and numerous areas have either probable or substantiated mineral-resource potential for one or more of the following metals: gold, silver, lead, zinc, copper, and molybdenum. In addition, part of the wilderness has substantiated coal resource potential. There is little promise for the occurrence of oil and gas or geothermal resources.

Probabilistic Reasoning for Robustness in Automated Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaffer, Steven; Clement, Bradley; Chien, Steve

2007-01-01

A general-purpose computer program for planning the actions of a spacecraft or other complex system has been augmented by incorporating a subprogram that reasons about uncertainties in such continuous variables as times taken to perform tasks and amounts of resources to be consumed. This subprogram computes parametric probability distributions for time and resource variables on the basis of user-supplied models of actions and resources that they consume. The current system accepts bounded Gaussian distributions over action duration and resource use. The distributions are then combined during planning to determine the net probability distribution of each resource at any time point. In addition to a full combinatoric approach, several approximations for arriving at these combined distributions are available, including maximum-likelihood and pessimistic algorithms. Each such probability distribution can then be integrated to obtain a probability that execution of the plan under consideration would violate any constraints on the resource. The key idea is to use these probabilities of conflict to score potential plans and drive a search toward planning low-risk actions. An output plan provides a balance between the user s specified averseness to risk and other measures of optimality.

Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.

1987-01-01

An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An objective was to replace an existing Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase the efficiency of the appraisal process. Underlying the two methods is a single geologic model which considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The results of the model are resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and a closed form solution of all means and standard deviations, along with the probabilities of occurrence. ?? 1987 J.C. Baltzer A.G., Scientific Publishing Company.

CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, MONTANA AND IDAHO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witkind, Irving J.; Ridenour, James

1984-01-01

A mineral survey conducted within the Centennial Mountains Wilderness study area in Montana and Idaho showed large areas of probable and substantiated resource potential for phosphate. Byproducts that may be derived from processing the phosphate include vanadium, chromium, uranium, silver, fluorine, and the rare earths, lanthanum and yttrium. Results of a geochemical sampling program suggest that there is little promise for the occurrence of base and precious metals in the area. Although the area contains other nonmetallic deposits, such as coal, building stone, and pumiceous ash they are not considered as mineral resources. There is a probable resource potential for oil and gas and significant amounts may underlie the area around the Peet Creek and Odell Creek anticlines.

NORTH FORK SMITH RIVER ROADLESS AREA, CALIFORNIA AND OREGON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Floyd; Hamilton, Michael

1984-01-01

Geologic, geochemical, and geophysical investigations and a survey of mines and prospects were conducted to evaluate the mineral-resource potential of the North Fork Smith River Roadless Area, California. The area has probable and sustantiated resource potential for nickel, chromium, copper, and mercury and approximately 2300 mining claims exist in or adjacent to the area. The geologic terrane precludes the occurrence of fossil fuel resources.

RYAN HILL ROADLESS AREA, NEW MEXICO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maxwell, C.H.; Ellis, C.E.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a geochemical survey, the Ryan Hill Roadless Area, now the Langmuir Research Site in New Mexico has both probable and substantiated resource potential for manganese deposits. The nature of the geologic terrane holds little likelihood for the occurrence of organic fuels. Additional geochemical studies of the manganese vein systems are desirable to better delineate the resource potential; mineralogical and metallurgical studies are needed to determine recoverability of potentially important byproducts, including tungsten and cobalt. Drilling into the vein system at depth would be required to test the continuity of the manganese deposits and evaluate the resource potential of the area for deeply buried base- and precious-metal resources.

BOULDER-PIONEER WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, IDAHO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simons, Frank S.; Tuchek, Ernest T.

1984-01-01

A mineral-resource survey of the Boulder-Pioneer Wilderness study area in the Pioneer and Boulder Mountains of south-central Idaho, was made. The area has demonstrated resources of about 1. 7 million tons of lead-zinc-silver ore, mostly in the Phi Kappa mine, and an additional 2. 5 million tons of demonstrated resources in areas of substantiated potential for these metals and for tungsten, molybdenum, and fluorite. The survey indicates substantiated resource potential in eight areas and probable mineral-resource potential in seven. Mineral commodities of greatest intertest include tungsten, copper, lead, zinc, silver, gold, molybdenum, vanadium, and barite. There is little likelihood for the occurrence of oil, gas, coal, or geothermal resources.

Assessment of potential oil and gas resources in source rocks of the Alaska North Slope, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Houseknecht, David W.; Rouse, William A.; Garrity, Christopher P.; Whidden, Katherine J.; Dumoulin, Julie A.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Cook, Troy A.; Gaswirth, Stephanie B.; Kirschbaum, Mark A.; Pollastro, Richard M.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey estimated potential, technically recoverable oil and gas resources for source rocks of the Alaska North Slope. Estimates (95-percent to 5-percent probability) range from zero to 2 billion barrels of oil and from zero to nearly 80 trillion cubic feet of gas.

EAGLES NEST WILDERNESS, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tweto, Ogden; Williams, Frank E.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a geologic and mineral survey, a primitive area that constitutes the nucleus of the Eagles Nest Wilderness, Colorado was appraised to offer little promise for the occurrence of mineral or energy resources. Among the additional areas later incorporated in the wilderness, only a strip near a major fault west and northwest of Frisco and Dillon is classed as having probable mineral-resource potential. If mineral deposits exist, they probably are of the silver-lead-zinc or fluorspar types.

ALPINE LAKES WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, WASHINGTON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gualtieri, J.L.; Thurber, H.K.

1984-01-01

The Alpine Lakes Wilderness study area, located in the central part of the Cascade Mountains of Washington was examined for its mineral-resource potential. On the basis of that study the area was found to contain deposits of copper, other base metals, and gold and silver. Probable or substantiated mineral-resource potential exists for these commodities in the southwest-central, northwest, and southeast-central parts of the area. The geologic terrane precludes the occurrence of fossil fuel resources.

NORTH ABSAROKA STUDY AREA, MONTANA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, J.E.; Stotelmeyer, R.B.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the North Absaroka study area in Montana was conducted. The results of this survey indicate that parts of the area are extensively mineralized and that the area has potential for resources of gold, silver, copper, molybdenum, nickel, lead, zinc, platinum-group metals, uranium, iron, manganese, chromium, tungsten, and arsenic. Six areas of probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential were identified. The nature of the geologic terrain indicates that there is little likelihood for occurrence of oil, gas, coal, or geothermal resources.

Using Geothermal Play Types as an Analogue for Estimating Potential Resource Size

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terry, Rachel; Young, Katherine

Blind geothermal systems are becoming increasingly common as more geothermal fields are developed. Geothermal development is known to have high risk in the early stages of a project development because reservoir characteristics are relatively unknown until wells are drilled. Play types (or occurrence models) categorize potential geothermal fields into groups based on geologic characteristics. To aid in lowering exploration risk, these groups' reservoir characteristics can be used as analogues in new site exploration. The play type schemes used in this paper were Moeck and Beardsmore play types (Moeck et al. 2014) and Brophy occurrence models (Brophy et al. 2011). Operatingmore » geothermal fields throughout the world were classified based on their associated play type, and then reservoir characteristics data were catalogued. The distributions of these characteristics were plotted in histograms to develop probability density functions for each individual characteristic. The probability density functions can be used as input analogues in Monte Carlo estimations of resource potential for similar play types in early exploration phases. A spreadsheet model was created to estimate resource potential in undeveloped fields. The user can choose to input their own values for each reservoir characteristic or choose to use the probability distribution functions provided from the selected play type. This paper also addresses the United States Geological Survey's 1978 and 2008 assessment of geothermal resources by comparing their estimated values to reported values from post-site development. Information from the collected data was used in the comparison for thirty developed sites in the United States. No significant trends or suggestions for methodologies could be made by the comparison.« less

Market study for direct utilization of geothermal resources by selected sectors of economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1980-08-01

A comprehensive analysis is presented of industrial markets potential for direct use of geothermal energy by a total of six industry sectors: food and kindred products; tobacco manufactures; textile mill products; lumber and wood products (except furniture); chemicals and allied products; and leather and leather products. Location determinants and potential for direct use of geothermal resources are presented. The data was gathered through interviews with 30 senior executives in the six sectors of economy selected for study. Probable locations of plants in geothermal resource areas and recommendations for geothermal resource marketing are presented.

WEMINUCHE WILDERNESS, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steven, Thomas A.; Williams, F.E.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Weminuche Wilderness, Colorado was conducted. Although little mineral production has been recorded in the area, it borders several highly productive mining districts and mineral deposits probably exist within parts of the wilderness. Within and near the wilderness, evidence of substantiated mineral-resource potential was found in the following four areas: (1) the Needle Mountains mining district, in the southwestern part of the wilderness, (2) Whitehead Gulch, in the northwestern part of the wilderness, (3) the Beartown mining district, along the north margin of the wilderness, and (4) the Trout Creek-Middle Fork Piedra River area, in and adjacent to the northeastern part of the wilderness. Of the four areas, the Needle Mountains mining district has the most promise for significant mineral resources, particularly of molydenum and uranium. A probable oil and gas resource potential exists in the eastern half of the area in traps in sedimentary rocks under volcanic cover.

MOUNT EDDY AND CASTLE CRAGS ROADLESS AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Jocelyn A.; Denton, David K.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Mount Eddy and Castle Crags Roadless Areas, California, shows probable mineral-resource potential for chromite and gold on the basis of local occurrences of these minerals and favorable geologic environment within the roadless areas. There is also geochemical evidence for mineralization, but surface evidence is scant. Although asbestos and copper minerals are present in the areas and the geologic environment is favorable for nickel and platinum-group metals, no resource potential for these was identified. No energy resources were identified in the study of the roadless areas.

BLANCO MOUNTAIN AND BLACK CANYON ROADLESS AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diggles, Michael F.; Rains, Richard L.

1984-01-01

The mineral survey of the Blanco Mountain and Black Canyon Roadless Areas, California indicated that areas of probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential exist only in the Black Canyon Roadless Area. Gold with moderate amounts of lead, silver, zinc, and tungsten, occurs in vein deposits and in tactite. The nature of the geological terrain indicates little likelihood for the occurrence of energy resources in the roadless areas. Detailed geologic mapping might better define the extent of gold mineralization. Detailed stream-sediment sampling and analysis of heavy-mineral concentrations could better define tungsten resource potential.

Application analysis of Monte Carlo to estimate the capacity of geothermal resources in Lawu Mount

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Supriyadi, E-mail: supriyadi-uno@yahoo.co.nz; Srigutomo, Wahyu; Munandar, Arif

2014-03-24

Monte Carlo analysis has been applied in calculation of geothermal resource capacity based on volumetric method issued by Standar Nasional Indonesia (SNI). A deterministic formula is converted into a stochastic formula to take into account the nature of uncertainties in input parameters. The method yields a range of potential power probability stored beneath Lawu Mount geothermal area. For 10,000 iterations, the capacity of geothermal resources is in the range of 139.30-218.24 MWe with the most likely value is 177.77 MWe. The risk of resource capacity above 196.19 MWe is less than 10%. The power density of the prospect area coveringmore » 17 km{sup 2} is 9.41 MWe/km{sup 2} with probability 80%.« less

Mineral resource potential map of the Raywood Flat Roadless Areas, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matti, Jonathan C.; Cox, Brett F.; Iverson, Stephen R.

1983-01-01

The area having moderate potential for base-metal resources forms a small zone in the eastern part of the recommended wilderness (A5-187). Within this zone, evidence provided by stream-sediment geochemistry suggests that crystalline bedrocks in several drainages contain concentrations of metallic elements. Because the terrain is inaccessible and covered with dense brush, most of the bedrock in the specific drainages containing the geochemical anomalies could not be examined. Thus, although we infer that mineral occurrences exist in the drainage basins, we have little data on which to base an estimate of their extent and quality. Locally, the crystalline rocks probably contain hydrothermal veins or disseminated occurrences where lead, copper, molybdenum, tin, cobalt, bismuth, and arsenic have been concentrated. However, the geochemical anomalies for these metals are small, and the stream drainages also are relatively small. Therefore, the inferred occurrences of metallic minerals probably are small scale, scattered, and low grade. There is only low probability that the inferred mineral occurrences are large scale.

BENTON RANGE ROADLESS AREA, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKee, Edwin H.; Rains, Richard L.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a mineral survey, two parts of the Benton Range Roadless Area, California are considered to have mineral-resource potential. The central and southern part of the roadless area, near several nonoperating mines, has a probable potential for tungsten and gold-silver mineralization in tactite zones. The central part of the area has a substantiated resource potential for gold and silver in quartz veins. Detailed mapping and geochemical sampling for tungsten, gold, and silver in the central and southern part of the roadless area might indicate targets for shallow drilling exploration.

Analyses of exobiological and potential resource materials in the Martian soil.

PubMed

Mancinelli, R L; Marshall, J R; White, M R

1992-01-01

Potential Martian soil components relevant to exobiology include water, organic matter, evaporites, clays, and oxides. These materials are also resources for human expeditions to Mars. When found in particular combinations, some of these materials constitute diagnostic paleobiomarker suites, allowing insight to be gained into the probability of life originating on Mars. Critically important to exobiology is the method of data analysis and data interpretation. To that end we are investigating methods of analysis of potential biomarker and paleobiomarker compounds and resource materials in soils and rocks pertinent to Martian geology. Differential thermal analysis coupled with gas chromatography is shown to be a highly useful analytical technique for detecting this wide and complex variety of materials.

Analyses of exobiological and potential resource materials in the Martian soil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mancinelli, Rocco L.; Marshall, John R.; White, Melisa R.

1992-01-01

Potential Martian soil components relevant to exobiology include water, organic matter, evaporites, clays, and oxides. These materials are also resources for human expeditions to Mars. When found in particular combinations, some of these materials constitute diagnostic paleobiomarker suites, allowing insight to be gained into the probability of life originating on Mars. Critically important to exobiology is the method of data analysis and data interpretation. To that end, methods of analysis of potential biomarker and paleobiomarker compounds and resource materials in soils and rocks pertinent to Martian geology are investigated. Differential thermal analysis coupled with gas chromotography is shown to be a highly useful analytical technique for detecting this wide and complex variety of materials.

The association between long-term care setting and potentially preventable hospitalizations among older dual eligibles.

PubMed

Wysocki, Andrea; Kane, Robert L; Golberstein, Ezra; Dowd, Bryan; Lum, Terry; Shippee, Tetyana

2014-06-01

To compare the probability of experiencing a potentially preventable hospitalization (PPH) between older dual eligible Medicaid home and community-based service (HCBS) users and nursing home residents. Three years of Medicaid and Medicare claims data (2003-2005) from seven states, linked to area characteristics from the Area Resource File. A primary diagnosis of an ambulatory care sensitive condition on the inpatient hospital claim was used to identify PPHs. We used inverse probability of treatment weighting to mitigate the potential selection of HCBS versus nursing home use. The most frequent conditions accounting for PPHs were the same among the HCBS users and nursing home residents and included congestive heart failure, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, urinary tract infection, and dehydration. Compared to nursing home residents, elderly HCBS users had an increased probability of experiencing both a PPH and a non-PPH. HCBS users' increased probability for potentially and non-PPHs suggests a need for more proactive integration of medical and long-term care. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

SALMON RIVER BREAKS PRIMITIVE AREA AND VICINITY, IDAHO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kiilsgaard, Thor H.; Tuchek, Ernest T.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Salmon River Breaks Primitive Area and vicinity in Idaho confirmed a substantiated gold resource potential in placer deposits along the Salmon River but determined that large-scale mining of the deposits probably would not be feasible. Except for demonstrated fluorspar resources at the Big Squaw Creek deposit, no other mineral resources were found in the area. The geologic environment, geochemical findings, and geophysical data all suggest little likelihood for the occurrence of additional mineral resources in the area. No energy resources were identified in this study.

MADISON ROADLESS AREA, MONTANA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simons, Frank S.; Lambeth, Robert H.

1984-01-01

A mineral-resource survey of the Madison Roadless Area in the Madison Range of southwestern Montana was made. The Madison Roadless Area has demonstrated resources of about 93,000 tons of sillimanite rock at the Placer Creek deposit and of about 83,000 tons of asbestos rock at the Karst deposit. The roadless area also has areas of substantiated phosphate resource potential; much of the phosphate is in thin deeply buried beds. An area near the south edge of the roadless area has a probable resource potential for copper and silver. The concentration of uranium-rich stream-sediment samples in the southwest part of the roadless area suggests that a further attempt to identify the source rocks might be justified.

Global mega forces: Implications for the future of natural resources

Treesearch

George H. Kubik

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of leading global mega forces and their importance to the future of natural resource decisionmaking, policy development, and operation. Global mega forces are defined as a combination of major trends, preferences, and probabilities that come together to produce the potential for future high-impact outcomes. These...

SHEEP MOUNTAIN WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, WYOMING.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Houston, Robert S.; Patten, Lowell L.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a mineral survey the Sheep Mountain Wilderness study area in Wyoming was determined to offer little promise for metallic mineral resources. There is a probable potential for oil and gas resources in a small part of the study area along its northeast margin. Geophysical studies, such as reflection seismic profiling would help define the oil and gas potential in fault-controlled structures, such as those beneath the thrust fault that crops out along the east flank of Sheep Mountain.

Advancement in modern approaches to mineral production quality control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freidina, EV; Botvinnik, AA; Dvornikova, AN

2017-02-01

The natural resource potential of mineral deposits is represented by three categories: upside, attainable and investment. A modern methodology is proposed in this paper for production quality control, and its tools aimed at ensuring agreement between the product quality and the market requirements are described. The definitions of the costs of the product quality compliance and incompliance with the consumer requirements are introduced; the latter is suggested to use in evaluating resource potential of mineral deposits at a certain degree of probability.

GLACIER BAY NATIONAL MONUMENT WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, ALASKA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brew, David A.; Kimball, Arthur L.

1984-01-01

Glacier Bay National Monument is a highly scenic and highly mineralized area about 100 mi west of Juneau, Alaska. Four deposits with demonstrated resources of nickel, copper, zinc, and molybdenum have been identified within the monument and eleven areas of probable or substantiated mineral-resource potential have been identified. The monument is highly mineralized in comparison with most areas of similar size elsewhere in southeastern Alaska, and present estimates of mineral resources are considered conservative.

EAGLE CAP WILDERNESS AND ADJACENT AREAS, OREGON.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kilsgaard, Thor H.; Tuchek, Ernest T.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a mineral survey of the Eagle Cap Wilderness and adjacent areas a probable mineral-resources potential was identified in five areas in the eastern part of the wilderness. Mineral resources are most likely to occur in tactite deposits in sedimentary rocks at or near contacts with intrusive granitic rocks that could contain copper and small amounts of other metals; however, there is little promise for the occurrence of energy resources.

Water resources and potential effects of surface coal mining in the area of the Woodson Preference Right Lease Application, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, M.R.

1987-01-01

Federal coal lands of the Woodson Preference Right Lease Application are located in Dawson and Richland Counties, northeastern Montana. A probable mine area, comprised of the lease area and adjacent coal lands, contains about 220 million tons of recoverable lignite coal in the 12-37 ft thick Pust coal bed. A hydrologic study has been conducted in the area to describe the water resources and to evaluate potential effects of coal mining on the water resources. Geohydrologic data collected from wells and springs indicate that several aquifers exist in the area. Sandstone beds in the Tongue River Member of the Fort Union Formation (Paleocene age) are the most common aquifers and probably underlie the entire area. The Pust coal bed in the Tongue River Member is water saturated in part of the probable mine area and is dry in other parts of the probable mine area. Other aquifers, located mostly outside of the probable mine area, exist in gravel of the Flaxville Formation (Miocene of Pliocene age) and valley alluvium (Pleistocene and Holocene age). Chemical analyses of groundwater indicate a range in dissolved solids concentration of 240-2,280 mg/L. Surface water resources are limited. Most streams in the area are ephemeral and flow only in response to rainfall or snowmelt. Small reaches of the North and Middle Forks of Burns Creek have intermittent flow. Water sampled from a small perennial reach of the Middle Fork had a dissolved solids concentration of 700 mg/L. Mining of the Pust coal bed would destroy one spring and four stock wells, dewater areas of the Pust coal and sandstone aquifers, and probably lower water levels in seven stock and domestic wells. Mining in the valley of Middle Fork Burns Creek would intercept streamflow and alter flow characteristics of a small perennial reach of stream. Leaching of soluble minerals from mine spoils may cause a long-term degradation of the quality of water in the spoils and in aquifers downgradient from the spoils. Some of the effects on local water supplies could be mitigated by development of new wells in deeper sandstones of the Tongue River Member. Effects of mining on water resources would be minimized if only areas of dry coal were mined. (Author 's abstract)

UNCOMPAHGRE PRIMITIVE AREA, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luedke, R.G.; Sheridan, M.J.

1984-01-01

A mineral-resource study was made of that part of the Uncompahgre National Forest, Colorado constituting the officially designated primitive area. Because the primitive area and its southern border zone contained operating mines producing gold, silver, copper, lead, zinc, and minor amounts of a few other metals, and had been a part of a highly productive mining region, the area was concluded to have large segments of both probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential. No energy resources were identified in the study.

Overrepresentation of extreme events in decision making reflects rational use of cognitive resources.

PubMed

Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L; Hsu, Ming

2018-01-01

People's decisions and judgments are disproportionately swayed by improbable but extreme eventualities, such as terrorism, that come to mind easily. This article explores whether such availability biases can be reconciled with rational information processing by taking into account the fact that decision makers value their time and have limited cognitive resources. Our analysis suggests that to make optimal use of their finite time decision makers should overrepresent the most important potential consequences relative to less important, put potentially more probable, outcomes. To evaluate this account, we derive and test a model we call utility-weighted sampling. Utility-weighted sampling estimates the expected utility of potential actions by simulating their outcomes. Critically, outcomes with more extreme utilities have a higher probability of being simulated. We demonstrate that this model can explain not only people's availability bias in judging the frequency of extreme events but also a wide range of cognitive biases in decisions from experience, decisions from description, and memory recall. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers.

PubMed

Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Hand, Michael S; Calkin, David E; Venn, Tyron J; Thompson, Matthew P

2013-06-01

Federal policy has embraced risa management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risas of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risa aversion, and risa seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers respond to wildfire risa, including the potential effect of wildfires (on ecological values, structures, and safety) and the likelihood of different fire outcomes. We use responses to a choice experiment questionnaire of U.S. federal wildfire managers to measure attitudes toward several components of wildfire risa and to test whether observed risa attitudes are consistent with the efficient allocation of wildfire suppression resources. Our results indicate that fire managers' decisions are consistent with nonexpected utility theories of decisions under risa. Managers may overallocate firefighting resources when the likelihood or potential magnitude of damage from fires is low, and sensitivity to changes in the probability of fire outcomes depends on whether probabilities are close to one or zero and the magnitude of the potential harm. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

WILDERNESSES AND ROADLESS AREAS IN WHITE MOUNTAIN NATIONAL FOREST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moench, Robert H.; Gazdik, Gertrude C.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a mineral survey, a geologic terrane in north-central New Hampshire having an area of at least 300 sq mi has probable potential for the occurrence of tin resources. This terrane covers all of the Sandwich Range Roadless Area, approximately the eastern two thirds of the Pemigewasset Roadless Area, a large part of the Presidential Range-Dry River Wilderness, and the southern part of the Dry River Extension Roadless Area. If major tin deposits occur in New Hampshire, they are probably associated with the Mesozoic Conway Granite. Tin resources in the New Hampshire terrane may also occur in small but high-grade veins, as at the old Jackson tin mine; and in iron-beryllium deposits that are low grade with respect to tin but richer in iron, beryllium, lead, zinc, and silver, as at the old Iron Mountain mine. The resource potential for uranium, tungsten, and niobium in the same and other parts of the area investigated cannot be evaluated frpm present data. The nature of the geologic terrain indicates little likelihood of the occurrence of organic fuels.

MOUNT SHASTA WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Robert L.; Tuchek, Ernest T.

1984-01-01

The Mount Shasta Wilderness lies wholly on the slopes and summit area of Mount Shasta and consists almost entirely of the products of geologically young volcanism. Small deposits of volcanic cinders and pumice are present. The volcanic system of Mount Shasta is judged to have probable resource potential for geothermal energy but that potential is least within the wilderness study area boundaries. Because any geothermal energy resource beneath the volcano would lie at considerable depths, exploration or development would be most likely at lower altitudes on the gentler slopes outside the study area.

Stochastic Analysis of Wind Energy for Wind Pump Irrigation in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, M. M.; Kumar, A.; Bisht, D.; Rao, D. B.

2014-09-01

The rapid escalation in the prices of oil and gas as well as increasing demand for energy has attracted the attention of scientists and researchers to explore the possibility of generating and utilizing the alternative and renewable sources of wind energy in the long coastal belt of India with considerable wind energy resources. A detailed analysis of wind potential is a prerequisite to harvest the wind energy resources efficiently. Keeping this in view, the present study was undertaken to analyze the wind energy potential to assess feasibility of the wind-pump operated irrigation system in the coastal region of Andhra Pradesh, India, where high ground water table conditions are available. The stochastic analysis of wind speed data were tested to fit a probability distribution, which describes the wind energy potential in the region. The normal and Weibull probability distributions were tested; and on the basis of Chi square test, the Weibull distribution gave better results. Hence, it was concluded that the Weibull probability distribution may be used to stochastically describe the annual wind speed data of coastal Andhra Pradesh with better accuracy. The size as well as the complete irrigation system with mass curve analysis was determined to satisfy various daily irrigation demands at different risk levels.

BREAD LOAF ROADLESS AREA, VERMONT.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slack, John F.; Bitar, Richard F.

1984-01-01

On the basis of mineral-resource survey the Bread Loaf Roadless Area, Vermont, is considered to have probable resource potential for the occurrence of volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits of copper, zinc, and lead, particularly in the north and northeastern section of the roadless area. Nonmetallic commodities include minor deposits of sand and gravel, and abundant rock suitable for crushing. However, large amounts of these materials in more accessible locations are available outside the roadless area. A possibility exists that oil or natural gas resources may be present at great depth.

In search of a statistical probability model for petroleum-resource assessment : a critique of the probabilistic significance of certain concepts and methods used in petroleum-resource assessment : to that end, a probabilistic model is sketched

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grossling, Bernardo F.

1975-01-01

Exploratory drilling is still in incipient or youthful stages in those areas of the world where the bulk of the potential petroleum resources is yet to be discovered. Methods of assessing resources from projections based on historical production and reserve data are limited to mature areas. For most of the world's petroleum-prospective areas, a more speculative situation calls for a critical review of resource-assessment methodology. The language of mathematical statistics is required to define more rigorously the appraisal of petroleum resources. Basically, two approaches have been used to appraise the amounts of undiscovered mineral resources in a geologic province: (1) projection models, which use statistical data on the past outcome of exploration and development in the province; and (2) estimation models of the overall resources of the province, which use certain known parameters of the province together with the outcome of exploration and development in analogous provinces. These two approaches often lead to widely different estimates. Some of the controversy that arises results from a confusion of the probabilistic significance of the quantities yielded by each of the two approaches. Also, inherent limitations of analytic projection models-such as those using the logistic and Gomperts functions --have often been ignored. The resource-assessment problem should be recast in terms that provide for consideration of the probability of existence of the resource and of the probability of discovery of a deposit. Then the two above-mentioned models occupy the two ends of the probability range. The new approach accounts for (1) what can be expected with reasonably high certainty by mere projections of what has been accomplished in the past; (2) the inherent biases of decision-makers and resource estimators; (3) upper bounds that can be set up as goals for exploration; and (4) the uncertainties in geologic conditions in a search for minerals. Actual outcomes can then be viewed as phenomena subject to statistical uncertainty and responsive to changes in economic and technologic factors.

CANNIBAL PLATEAU ROADLESS AREA AND POWDERHORN WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, COLORADO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharp, William N.; Lane, M.E.

1984-01-01

The Cannibal Plateau Roadless Area and the adjoining Powderhorn Wilderness study area are on the Gunnison-Hinsdale County boundary, approximately 50 mi southwest of Gunnison and a few miles east of Lake City. Part of the area has been known as the Powderhorn Primitive Area. The mineral-resource potential involved a basic geologic study, a geophysical survey, and a geochemical survey. No mining districts exist within the two areas, but the Lake City mining district adjoins the Cannibal Plateau Roadless Area at the southwest edge. The mineral-resource survey indicates that the southwest part of the Cannibal Plateau Roadless Area has probable mineral-resource potential, for gold, silver, and molybdenum. There is little promise for the occurrence of mineral and energy resources for the remainder of the areas.

WEAVER BALLY ROADLESS AREA, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blake, M.C.; Peters, T.J.

1984-01-01

The Weaver Bally Roadless Area includes approximately 22 sq mi in the Shasta-Trinity National Forest, Trinity County, California. A mineral survey indicates that an area of less than 1 sq mi in the northern part of the Weaver Bally Roadless Area has a substantiated mineral-resource potential for gold and silver; a much larger area has a probable mineral-resource potential for the same elements. The geologic terrane precludes the occurrence of fossil fuel resources and there is little promise for the occurrence of additional metallic, energy, or nonmetallic resources in the roadless area. Detailed studies, including further geochemical sampling and drilling could be done in the region of the Globe mines. In addition, the outcrops of dacite porphyry dikes and sills and associated hydrothermal alteration should be mapped in detail.

DOLUS LAKES ROADLESS AREA, MONTANA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, James E.; Avery, Dale W.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Dolus Lakes Roadless Area in southwestern Montana, was conducted. Much of the roadless area has probable and substantiated potential for resources of gold, silver, molybdenum, and tungsten. The nature of the geologic terrain indicates that there is little promise for the occurrence of coal, oil, gas, or geothermal resources. Detailed geologic and geochemical studies are suggested to delineate exploration targets that could be tested by drilling.

Estimated probability of arsenic in groundwater from bedrock aquifers in New Hampshire, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayotte, Joseph D.; Cahillane, Matthew; Hayes, Laura; Robinson, Keith W.

2012-01-01

The statewide maps generated by the probability models are not designed to predict arsenic concentration in any single well, but they are expected to provide useful information in areas of the State that currently contain little to no data on arsenic concentration. They also may aid in resource decision making, in determining potential risk for private wells, and in ecological-level analysis of disease outcomes. The approach for modeling arsenic in groundwater could also be applied to other environmental contaminants that have potential implications for human health, such as uranium, radon, fluoride, manganese, volatile organic compounds, nitrate, and bacteria.

Geothermal resources and reserves in Indonesia: an updated revision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fauzi, A.

2015-02-01

More than 300 high- to low-enthalpy geothermal sources have been identified throughout Indonesia. From the early 1980s until the late 1990s, the geothermal potential for power production in Indonesia was estimated to be about 20 000 MWe. The most recent estimate exceeds 29 000 MWe derived from the 300 sites (Geological Agency, December 2013). This resource estimate has been obtained by adding all of the estimated geothermal potential resources and reserves classified as "speculative", "hypothetical", "possible", "probable", and "proven" from all sites where such information is available. However, this approach to estimating the geothermal potential is flawed because it includes double counting of some reserve estimates as resource estimates, thus giving an inflated figure for the total national geothermal potential. This paper describes an updated revision of the geothermal resource estimate in Indonesia using a more realistic methodology. The methodology proposes that the preliminary "Speculative Resource" category should cover the full potential of a geothermal area and form the base reference figure for the resource of the area. Further investigation of this resource may improve the level of confidence of the category of reserves but will not necessarily increase the figure of the "preliminary resource estimate" as a whole, unless the result of the investigation is higher. A previous paper (Fauzi, 2013a, b) redefined and revised the geothermal resource estimate for Indonesia. The methodology, adopted from Fauzi (2013a, b), will be fully described in this paper. As a result of using the revised methodology, the potential geothermal resources and reserves for Indonesia are estimated to be about 24 000 MWe, some 5000 MWe less than the 2013 national estimate.

SIPSEY WILDERNESS AND ADDITIONS, ALABAMA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schweinfurth, Stanley P.; Mory, Peter C.

1984-01-01

On the basis of geologic, geochemical, and mineral surveys the Sipsey Wilderness and additions are deemed to have little promise for the occurrence of metallic mineral resources. Although limestone, shale, and sandstone resources that occur in the area are physically suitable for a variety of uses, similar materials are available outside the area closer to transportation routes and potential markets. A small amount of coal has been identified in the area, occurring as nonpersistent beds less than 28 in. thick. Oil and (or) natural gas resources may be present if suitable structural traps exist in the subsurface. Therefore, the area has a probable oil and gas potential. Small amounts of asphaltic sandstone and limestone, commonly referred to as tar sands, may also occur in the subsurface. 5 refs.

BLUE RANGE WILDERNESS, ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ratte, James C.; Raabe, R.G.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the area was completed and it was determined that a probable resource potential for molybdenum, copper, and silver is present in volcanic rocks of middle Tertiary age in the southern and southwestern parts of the area. There is also a likelihood for the occurrence of base-metal resources (including porphyry copper deposits) of Laramide age beneath the middle Tertiary volcanic rocks that cover the area, but data are insufficient to assess the resource potential. Improved techniques for interpreting geophysical data collected over complex volcanic terranes should be applied in an effort to identify Laramide intrusives beneath the middle Tertiary rocks. Additional geologic studies of the major faults and volcanic centers might enhance mineral-deposit target definition in the middle Tertiary rocks.

CABALLO AND POLVADERA ROADLESS AREAS, NEW MEXICO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manley, Kim; Lane, Michael

1984-01-01

A mineral-resource survey has been conducted for the Caballo and Polvadera Roadless Areas, Los Alamos and Rio Arriba Counties, New Mexico. The rocks in the study areas are chiefly volcanic with minor volcaniclastic sedimentary rocks. There is little promise for the occurrence of mineral or fossil fuel resources in the areas. There has been no mining activity within the roadless areas and chemical analyses of stream-sediment samples show no significant anomalous concentrations of metals. There has been some interest in geothermal resources near the Polvadera Roadless Area and a KGRA (Known Geothermal Resource Area) extends into the southwestern corner of the area. This area has been classified as having probable geothermal-resource potential.

Prevalence and Correlates of Sleep Problems in Adult Israeli Jews Exposed to Actual or Threatened Terrorist or Rocket Attacks

PubMed Central

Palmieri, Patrick A.; Chipman, Katie J.; Canetti, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J.; Hobfoll, Stevan E.

2010-01-01

Study Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of, and to identify correlates of clinically significant sleep problems in adult Israeli citizens exposed to chronic terrorism and war trauma or threat thereof. Methods: A population-based, cross-sectional study of 1001 adult Israeli citizens interviewed by phone between July 15 and August 26, 2008. The phone survey was conducted in Hebrew and assessed demographics, trauma/stressor exposure, probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), probable depression, and sleep problems. Probable PTSD and depression were assessed with the PTSD Symptom Scale (PSS) and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), respectively, following DSM-IV diagnostic criteria. Sleep problems in the past month were assessed with the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), on which a global composite score ≥ 6 indicates a clinical-level sleep problem. Results: Prevalence of probable PTSD and depression was 5.5% and 5.8%, respectively. Prevalence of clinically significant sleep problems was 37.4% overall, but was significantly higher for probable PTSD (81.8%) and probable depression (79.3%) subgroups. Independent correlates of poor sleep included being female, older, less educated, experiencing major life stressors, and experiencing psychosocial resource loss. Psychosocial resource loss due to terrorist attacks emerged as the strongest potentially modifiable risk factor for sleep problems. Conclusions: Sleep problems are common among Israeli adults living under chronic traumatic threat and trauma exposure. Given the continuing threat of war, interventions that bolster psychosocial resources may play an important role in preventing or alleviating sleep problems in this population. Citation: Palmieri PA; Chipman KJ; Canetti D; Johnson RJ; Hobfoll SE. Prevalence and correlates of sleep problems in adult Israeli Jews exposed to actual or threatened terrorist or rocket attacks. J Clin Sleep Med 2010;6(6):557-564. PMID:21206544

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lopez, Anthony; Maclaurin, Galen; Roberts, Billy

Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY)more » resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.« less

Guadalupe Escarpment Wilderness study area, New Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hayes, P.T.; Thompson, J.R.

1984-01-01

A mineral-resource survey of the Guadalupe Escarpment Wilderness study area made by the USGS and the USBM in 1981 and 1982 indicates little possibility for the occurrence of metallic mineral resources. The area is underlain by thousands of feet of sedimentary rock that could contain either stratigraphic or structural oil and (or) gas traps. The oil and gas resource potential is assessed to be probable, but cannot be conclusively known before several exploratory holes have been drilled in the area. Limestone, gravel, and guano occur in the area but these commodities also occur elsewhere outside the area.

Predictive Modelling for Fisheries Management in the Colombian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beal, Jacob; Bennett, Sara

A group of Colombian indigenous communities and Amacayacu National Park are cooperating to make regulations for sustainable use of their shared natural resources, especially the fish populations. To aid this effort, we are modeling the interactions among these communities and their ecosystem with the objective of predicting the stability of regulations, identifying potential failure modes, and guiding investment of scarce resources. The goal is to improve the probability of actually achieving fair, sustainable and community-managed subsistence fishing in the region.

The effect of fight cost structure on fighting behaviour involving simultaneous decisions and variable investment levels.

PubMed

Broom, Mark; Johanis, Michal; Rychtář, Jan

2018-01-01

In the "producer-scrounger" model, a producer discovers a resource and is in turn discovered by a second individual, the scrounger, who attempts to steal it. This resource can be food or a territory, and in some situations, potentially divisible. In a previous paper we considered a producer and scrounger competing for an indivisible resource, where each individual could choose the level of energy that they would invest in the contest. The higher the investment, the higher the probability of success, but also the higher the costs incurred in the contest. In that paper decisions were sequential with the scrounger choosing their strategy before the producer. In this paper we consider a version of the game where decisions are made simultaneously. For the same cost functions as before, we analyse this case in detail, and then make comparisons between the two cases. Finally we discuss some real examples with potentially variable and asymmetric energetic investments, including intraspecific contests amongst spiders and amongst parasitoid wasps. In the case of the spiders, detailed estimates of energetic expenditure are available which demonstrate the asymmetric values assumed in our models. For the wasps the value of the resource can affect the probabilities of success of the defender and attacker, and differential energetic investment can be inferred. In general for real populations energy usage varies markedly depending upon crucial parameters extrinsic to the individual such as resource value and intrinsic ones such as age, and is thus an important factor to consider when modelling.

NORTH END ROADLESS AREA, ARIZONA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drewes, Harald; Bigsby, P.R.

1984-01-01

Studies conducted in the North End Roadless Area, Arizona indicate probable or substantiated metallic mineral-resource potential in about one-fifth of the area. The area has potential for disseminated or stockwork-type molybdenum mineralization, copper-lead-zinc-silver veins, lead-zinc-silver limestone replacement deposits, and tungsten-bearing contact metamorphic skarn deposits. The area also contains cement rock and marble dimension stone, but has only slight promise for the occurrence of petroleum and natural gas.

Probability calculations for three-part mineral resource assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellefsen, Karl J.

2017-06-27

Three-part mineral resource assessment is a methodology for predicting, in a specified geographic region, both the number of undiscovered mineral deposits and the amount of mineral resources in those deposits. These predictions are based on probability calculations that are performed with computer software that is newly implemented. Compared to the previous implementation, the new implementation includes new features for the probability calculations themselves and for checks of those calculations. The development of the new implementation lead to a new understanding of the probability calculations, namely the assumptions inherent in the probability calculations. Several assumptions strongly affect the mineral resource predictions, so it is crucial that they are checked during an assessment. The evaluation of the new implementation leads to new findings about the probability calculations,namely findings regarding the precision of the computations,the computation time, and the sensitivity of the calculation results to the input.

What Are Probability Surveys used by the National Aquatic Resource Surveys?

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

CHAMA RIVER CANYON WILDERNESS AND CONTIGUOUS ROADLESS AREA, NEW MEXICO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ridgley, Jennie L.; Light, Thomas D.

1984-01-01

Results of mineral surveys indicate that the Chama River Canyon Wilderness and contiguous roadless area in new Mexico have a probable mineral-resource potential for copper with associated uranium and silver. Gypsum occurs throughout the area, exposed in the canyon walls. Further study of the wilderness should concentrate on exploratory drilling to test the oil and gas potential of Pennsylvanian strata and evaluate vanadium anomalies in the Todilto as a prospecting guide for locating uranium.

The significance of spatial resolution: Identifying forest cover from satellite data

Treesearch

Dumitru Salajanu; Charles E. Olson

2001-01-01

Twenty-five years ago, a National Academy of Sciences report identified species identification as a requirement if satellite data are to reach their full potential in forest inventory and monitoring; the report suggested that improving spatial resolution to 10 meters would probably be required (Committee on Remote Sensing Programs for Earth Resource Surveys [CORSPERS]...

Delinquency and Crime Prevention: Overview of Research Comparing Treatment Foster Care and Group Care

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osei, Gershon K.; Gorey, Kevin M.; Jozefowicz, Debra M. Hernandez

2016-01-01

Background: Evidence of treatment foster care (TFC) and group care's (GC) potential to prevent delinquency and crime has been developing. Objectives: We clarified the state of comparative knowledge with a historical overview. Then we explored the hypothesis that smaller, probably better resourced group homes with smaller staff/resident ratios have…

Spatially explicit forecasts of large wildland fire probability and suppression costs for California

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; Anthony L. Westerling; Krista M. Gebert; Francisco Munoz-Arriola; Thomas P. Holmes

2011-01-01

In the last decade, increases in fire activity and suppression expenditures have caused budgetary problems for federal land management agencies. Spatial forecasts of upcoming fire activity and costs have the potential to help reduce expenditures, and increase the efficiency of suppression efforts, by enabling them to focus resources where they have the greatest effect...

The Best of Two Open Worlds at the National Open University of Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agbu, Jane-frances Obiageli; Mulder, Fred; de Vries, Fred; Tenebe, Vincent; Caine, Abel

2016-01-01

It will be wise for educational institutions, from primary to tertiary level, globally, to reflect on their position and profile with respect to the new concepts of Open Educational Resources (OER) and Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). Responses will be diverse of course but the potential is so manifest that many institutions probably will…

Development of a Probabilistic Assessment Methodology for Evaluation of Carbon Dioxide Storage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burruss, Robert A.; Brennan, Sean T.; Freeman, P.A.; Merrill, Matthew D.; Ruppert, Leslie F.; Becker, Mark F.; Herkelrath, William N.; Kharaka, Yousif K.; Neuzil, Christopher E.; Swanson, Sharon M.; Cook, Troy A.; Klett, Timothy R.; Nelson, Philip H.; Schenk, Christopher J.

2009-01-01

This report describes a probabilistic assessment methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for evaluation of the resource potential for storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the subsurface of the United States as authorized by the Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110-140, 2007). The methodology is based on USGS assessment methodologies for oil and gas resources created and refined over the last 30 years. The resource that is evaluated is the volume of pore space in the subsurface in the depth range of 3,000 to 13,000 feet that can be described within a geologically defined storage assessment unit consisting of a storage formation and an enclosing seal formation. Storage assessment units are divided into physical traps (PTs), which in most cases are oil and gas reservoirs, and the surrounding saline formation (SF), which encompasses the remainder of the storage formation. The storage resource is determined separately for these two types of storage. Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to calculate a distribution of the potential storage size for individual PTs and the SF. To estimate the aggregate storage resource of all PTs, a second Monte Carlo simulation step is used to sample the size and number of PTs. The probability of successful storage for individual PTs or the entire SF, defined in this methodology by the likelihood that the amount of CO2 stored will be greater than a prescribed minimum, is based on an estimate of the probability of containment using present-day geologic knowledge. The report concludes with a brief discussion of needed research data that could be used to refine assessment methodologies for CO2 sequestration.

Physical and chemical properties of the Martian soil: Review of resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoker, C. R.; Gooding, James L.; Banin, A.; Clark, Benton C.; Roush, Ted

1991-01-01

The chemical and physical properties of Martian surface materials are reviewed from the perspective of using these resources to support human settlement. The resource potential of Martian sediments and soils can only be inferred from limited analyses performed by the Viking Landers (VL), from information derived from remote sensing, and from analysis of the SNC meteorites thought to be from Mars. Bulk elemental compositions by the VL inorganic chemical (x ray fluorescence) analysis experiments have been interpreted as evidence for clay minerals (possibly smectites) or mineraloids (palagonite) admixed with sulfate and chloride salts. The materials contained minerals bearing Fe, Ti, Al, Mg and Si. Martian surface materials may be used in many ways. Martian soil, with appropriate preconditioning, can probably be used as a plant growth medium, supplying mechanical support, nutrient elements, and water at optimal conditions to the plants. Loose Martian soils could be used to cover structures and provide radiation shielding for surface habitats. Martian soil could be wetted and formed into abode bricks used for construction. Duricrete bricks, with strength comparable to concrete, can probably be formed using compressed muds made from martian soil.

ARROYO SECO ROADLESS AREA, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powell, Robert E.; Gabby, Peter N.

1984-01-01

Situated in the southwestern San Gabriel Mountains in Los Angeles County, California, the Arroyo Seco Roadless Area encompasses about 8 sq mi within the Angeles National Forest. On the basis of geologic mapping, a geochemical stream-sediment survey, and a survey of mines, quarries, and prospects, the area has a probable resource potential for small gold occurrences in the southern part of the area. Sand, gravel, and stone suitable for construction materials are found in the roadless area. Because of their regional association with gold mineralization, the thin and poorly exposed mafic dikes in the Echo Granite, the Mount Lowe Granodiorite, and the Precambrian gneiss in and around the roadless area offer the most promising avenue for additional study of the resource potential of the area.

Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiegmann, Douglas A.a

2005-01-01

The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

Victimization in Early Life and Mental Health in Adulthood: An Examination of the Mediating and Moderating Influences of Psychosocial Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Terrence D.; Kaplan, Lauren M.; French, Michael T.; Johnson, Robert J.

2010-01-01

Although numerous studies have documented the long-term effects of childhood victimization on mental health in adulthood, few have directly examined potential mediators and moderators of this association. Using data from the Welfare, Children, and Families project (1999)--a probability sample of 2,402 predominantly black and Hispanic low-income…

Agents Overcoming Resource Independent Scaling Threats (AORIST)

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-10-01

20 Table 8: Tilted Consumer Preferences Experiment (m=8, N=61, G=2, C=60, Mean over 13 experiments...probabilities. Non-uniform consumer preferences create a new potential for sub-optimal system performance and thus require an additional adaptive...distribu- tion of the capacities across the sup- plier population must match the non- uniform consumer preferences . The second plot in Table 8

Spatial Probability Distribution of Strata's Lithofacies and its Impacts on Land Subsidence in Huairou Emergency Water Resources Region of Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Gong, H.; Zhu, L.; Guo, L.; Gao, M.; Zhou, C.

2016-12-01

Continuous over-exploitation of groundwater causes dramatic drawdown, and leads to regional land subsidence in the Huairou Emergency Water Resources region, which is located in the up-middle part of the Chaobai river basin of Beijing. Owing to the spatial heterogeneity of strata's lithofacies of the alluvial fan, ground deformation has no significant positive correlation with groundwater drawdown, and one of the challenges ahead is to quantify the spatial distribution of strata's lithofacies. The transition probability geostatistics approach provides potential for characterizing the distribution of heterogeneous lithofacies in the subsurface. Combined the thickness of clay layer extracted from the simulation, with deformation field acquired from PS-InSAR technology, the influence of strata's lithofacies on land subsidence can be analyzed quantitatively. The strata's lithofacies derived from borehole data were generalized into four categories and their probability distribution in the observe space was mined by using the transition probability geostatistics, of which clay was the predominant compressible material. Geologically plausible realizations of lithofacies distribution were produced, accounting for complex heterogeneity in alluvial plain. At a particular probability level of more than 40 percent, the volume of clay defined was 55 percent of the total volume of strata's lithofacies. This level, equaling nearly the volume of compressible clay derived from the geostatistics, was thus chosen to represent the boundary between compressible and uncompressible material. The method incorporates statistical geological information, such as distribution proportions, average lengths and juxtaposition tendencies of geological types, mainly derived from borehole data and expert knowledge, into the Markov chain model of transition probability. Some similarities of patterns were indicated between the spatial distribution of deformation field and clay layer. In the area with roughly similar water table decline, locations in the subsurface having a higher probability for the existence of compressible material occur more than that in the location with a lower probability. Such estimate of spatial probability distribution is useful to analyze the uncertainty of land subsidence.

TRACY ARM-FORDS TERROR WILDERNESS STUDY AREA AND VICINITY, ALASKA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brew, David A.; Kimball, A.L.

1984-01-01

The Tracy Arm-Fords Terror Wilderness study area lies on the southwest flank of the Coast Range about 45 mi southeast of Juneau, Alaska. A mineral-resource survey of the area identified two areas with substantiated mineral-resource potential: the Sumdum Glacier mineral belt with gold, copper, and zinc potential; and the Endicott Peninsula area with zinc, silver, and gold potential. The Sumdum Glacier belt is estimated to contain between 3 and 15 mineral deposits and there are 5 known mining areas in the Endicott Peninsula. Further work, particularly in the southern part of the belt, would be of significant help in refining the evaluation of that area. Relatively little activity has occurred in the Endicott Peninsula area; intense geochemical and geophysical work would remove many of the present uncertainties and probably would refine the present limit of the favorable areas. 2 refs.

SANDY CREEK ROADLESS AREA, MISSISSIPPI.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haley, Boyd R.; Bitar, Richard F.

1984-01-01

The Sandy Creek Roadless Area includes about 3. 7 sq mi in the southeastern part of Adams County, Mississippi. On the basis of a mineral survey, the area offers little promise for the occurrence of metallic mineral resources but has a probable resource potential for oil and natural gas. It is possible that wells drilled deep enough to penetrate the older reservoirs will encounter significant quantities of oil and natural gas in the roadless area. The deposits of gravel, sand, and clay present in the area could be utilized in the construction industry, but similar deposits elsewhere are much closer to available markets.

SECURITY MODELING FOR MARITIME PORT DEFENSE RESOURCE ALLOCATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, S.; Dunn, D.

2010-09-07

Redeployment of existing law enforcement resources and optimal use of geographic terrain are examined for countering the threat of a maritime based small-vessel radiological or nuclear attack. The evaluation was based on modeling conducted by the Savannah River National Laboratory that involved the development of options for defensive resource allocation that can reduce the risk of a maritime based radiological or nuclear threat. A diverse range of potential attack scenarios has been assessed. As a result of identifying vulnerable pathways, effective countermeasures can be deployed using current resources. The modeling involved the use of the Automated Vulnerability Evaluation for Risksmore » of Terrorism (AVERT{reg_sign}) software to conduct computer based simulation modeling. The models provided estimates for the probability of encountering an adversary based on allocated resources including response boats, patrol boats and helicopters over various environmental conditions including day, night, rough seas and various traffic flow rates.« less

Some thoughts on Mercurian resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillett, Stephen L.

Virtually all scenarios on Solar System development ignore Mercury, but such inattention is probably undeserved. Once viable lunar and (probably) asteroidal facilities are established in the next century, Mercury warrants further investigation. Mercury's high solar energy density is a major potential advantage for space-based industries. Indeed, despite its higher gravity, Mercury is roughly twice as easy to leave as the Moon if the additional solar flux is taken into account. Moreover, with solar-driven technologies such as solar sails or electric propulsion, its depth in the Sun's gravity well is less important. Because Mercury is airless and almost certainly waterless, it will be an obvious place to export lunar technology, which will have been developed to deal with very similar conditions. Methods for extracting resources from anhydrous silicates will be particularly germane. Even without solar-powered propulsion, the discovery of low-delta-V access via multiple Venus and Earth encounters makes the planet easier to reach than had been thought. Technology developed for multi-year missions to asteroids and Mars should be readily adaptable to such Mercurian missions. Mercury will not be our first outpost in the Solar System. Nonetheless, as facilities are established in cis-Earth space, it probably merits attention as a next step for development.

Markov chain model for demersal fish catch analysis in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firdaniza; Gusriani, N.

2018-03-01

As an archipelagic country, Indonesia has considerable potential fishery resources. One of the fish resources that has high economic value is demersal fish. Demersal fish is a fish with a habitat in the muddy seabed. Demersal fish scattered throughout the Indonesian seas. Demersal fish production in each Indonesia’s Fisheries Management Area (FMA) varies each year. In this paper we have discussed the Markov chain model for demersal fish yield analysis throughout all Indonesia’s Fisheries Management Area. Data of demersal fish catch in every FMA in 2005-2014 was obtained from Directorate of Capture Fisheries. From this data a transition probability matrix is determined by the number of transitions from the catch that lie below the median or above the median. The Markov chain model of demersal fish catch data was an ergodic Markov chain model, so that the limiting probability of the Markov chain model can be determined. The predictive value of demersal fishing yields was obtained by calculating the combination of limiting probability with average catch results below the median and above the median. The results showed that for 2018 and long-term demersal fishing results in most of FMA were below the median value.

RAMSEYS DRAFT WILDERNESS STUDY AREA AND ADDITION, VIRGINIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lesure, Frank G.; Mory, Peter C.

1984-01-01

Mineral-resource surveys of the Ramseys Draft Wilderness Study Area and adjoining roadless area addition in George Washington National Forest in the western valley and ridge province, Augusta and Highland Counties, Virginia, were done. The surveys outlined three small areas containing anomalous amounts of copper, lead, and zinc related to stratabound red-bed copper mineralization, but these occurrences are not large and are not considered as having mineral-resource potential. The area contains abundant sandstone suitable for construction materials and shale suitable for making brick, tile, and other low-grade ceramic products, but these commodities occur in abundance outside the wilderness study area. Structural conditions are probably favorable for the accumulation of natural gas, but exploratory drilling has not been done sufficiently near the area to evaluate the gas potential.

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

2009-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric; Walton, Marlei; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; Myers, Jerry; Butler, Doug; Lyengar, Sriram; Fitts, Mary; Johnson-Throop, Kathy

2009-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of optimizing in-flight medical systems based on crew and mission parameters. This presentation will illustrate how to apply quantitative risk assessment methods to optimize the mass and volume of space-based medical systems for a space flight mission given the level of crew health and mission risk.

A microcomputer program for energy assessment and aggregation using the triangular probability distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.; Balay, R.H.

1991-01-01

A general risk-analysis method was developed for petroleum-resource assessment and other applications. The triangular probability distribution is used as a model with an analytic aggregation methodology based on probability theory rather than Monte-Carlo simulation. Among the advantages of the analytic method are its computational speed and flexibility, and the saving of time and cost on a microcomputer. The input into the model consists of a set of components (e.g. geologic provinces) and, for each component, three potential resource estimates: minimum, most likely (mode), and maximum. Assuming a triangular probability distribution, the mean, standard deviation, and seven fractiles (F100, F95, F75, F50, F25, F5, and F0) are computed for each component, where for example, the probability of more than F95 is equal to 0.95. The components are aggregated by combining the means, standard deviations, and respective fractiles under three possible siutations (1) perfect positive correlation, (2) complete independence, and (3) any degree of dependence between these two polar situations. A package of computer programs named the TRIAGG system was written in the Turbo Pascal 4.0 language for performing the analytic probabilistic methodology. The system consists of a program for processing triangular probability distribution assessments and aggregations, and a separate aggregation routine for aggregating aggregations. The user's documentation and program diskette of the TRIAGG system are available from USGS Open File Services. TRIAGG requires an IBM-PC/XT/AT compatible microcomputer with 256kbyte of main memory, MS-DOS 3.1 or later, either two diskette drives or a fixed disk, and a 132 column printer. A graphics adapter and color display are optional. ?? 1991.

Biomass for energy in the European Union - a review of bioenergy resource assessments

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

This paper reviews recent literature on bioenergy potentials in conjunction with available biomass conversion technologies. The geographical scope is the European Union, which has set a course for long term development of its energy supply from the current dependence on fossil resources to a dominance of renewable resources. A cornerstone in European energy policies and strategies is biomass and bioenergy. The annual demand for biomass for energy is estimated to increase from the current level of 5.7 EJ to 10.0 EJ in 2020. Assessments of bioenergy potentials vary substantially due to methodological inconsistency and assumptions applied by individual authors. Forest biomass, agricultural residues and energy crops constitute the three major sources of biomass for energy, with the latter probably developing into the most important source over the 21st century. Land use and the changes thereof is a key issue in sustainable bioenergy production as land availability is an ultimately limiting factor. PMID:22546368

ELLICOTT ROCK WILDERNESS AND ADDITIONS, SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTH CAROLINA, AND GEORGIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, Henry; Gazdik, Gertrude C.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey was made of the Ellicott Rock Wilderness and additions located in the common corner of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia. Surveys along the rivers, streams, and ridges indicated that there is little promise for the occurrence of metallic mineral or energy resources. Deeply buried sedimentary rocks have an unknown potential for hydrocarbons, probably gas. Until some deep drilling is done to test these deep sedimentary rocks no reasonable estimate of gas potential can be made, but it cannot be totally discounted.

A probability metric for identifying high-performing facilities: an application for pay-for-performance programs.

PubMed

Shwartz, Michael; Peköz, Erol A; Burgess, James F; Christiansen, Cindy L; Rosen, Amy K; Berlowitz, Dan

2014-12-01

Two approaches are commonly used for identifying high-performing facilities on a performance measure: one, that the facility is in a top quantile (eg, quintile or quartile); and two, that a confidence interval is below (or above) the average of the measure for all facilities. This type of yes/no designation often does not do well in distinguishing high-performing from average-performing facilities. To illustrate an alternative continuous-valued metric for profiling facilities--the probability a facility is in a top quantile--and show the implications of using this metric for profiling and pay-for-performance. We created a composite measure of quality from fiscal year 2007 data based on 28 quality indicators from 112 Veterans Health Administration nursing homes. A Bayesian hierarchical multivariate normal-binomial model was used to estimate shrunken rates of the 28 quality indicators, which were combined into a composite measure using opportunity-based weights. Rates were estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods as implemented in WinBUGS. The probability metric was calculated from the simulation replications. Our probability metric allowed better discrimination of high performers than the point or interval estimate of the composite score. In a pay-for-performance program, a smaller top quantile (eg, a quintile) resulted in more resources being allocated to the highest performers, whereas a larger top quantile (eg, being above the median) distinguished less among high performers and allocated more resources to average performers. The probability metric has potential but needs to be evaluated by stakeholders in different types of delivery systems.

A re-evaluation of a case-control model with contaminated controls for resource selection studies

Treesearch

Christopher T. Rota; Joshua J. Millspaugh; Dylan C. Kesler; Chad P. Lehman; Mark A. Rumble; Catherine M. B. Jachowski

2013-01-01

A common sampling design in resource selection studies involves measuring resource attributes at sample units used by an animal and at sample units considered available for use. Few models can estimate the absolute probability of using a sample unit from such data, but such approaches are generally preferred over statistical methods that estimate a relative probability...

Multiple Neural Mechanisms of Decision Making and Their Competition under Changing Risk Pressure

PubMed Central

Kolling, Nils; Wittmann, Marco; Rushworth, Matthew F.S.

2014-01-01

Summary Sometimes when a choice is made, the outcome is not guaranteed and there is only a probability of its occurrence. Each individual’s attitude to probability, sometimes called risk proneness or aversion, has been assumed to be static. Behavioral ecological studies, however, suggest such attitudes are dynamically modulated by the context an organism finds itself in; in some cases, it may be optimal to pursue actions with a low probability of success but which are associated with potentially large gains. We show that human subjects rapidly adapt their use of probability as a function of current resources, goals, and opportunities for further foraging. We demonstrate that dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) carries signals indexing the pressure to pursue unlikely choices and signals related to the taking of such choices. We show that dACC exerts this control over behavior when it, rather than ventromedial prefrontal cortex, interacts with posterior cingulate cortex. PMID:24607236

Wildfire exposure analysis on the national forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Buonopane, Michelle; Reger, Allison; Finney, Mark A

2013-06-01

We analyzed wildfire exposure for key social and ecological features on the national forests in Oregon and Washington. The forests contain numerous urban interfaces, old growth forests, recreational sites, and habitat for rare and endangered species. Many of these resources are threatened by wildfire, especially in the east Cascade Mountains fire-prone forests. The study illustrates the application of wildfire simulation for risk assessment where the major threat is from large and rare naturally ignited fires, versus many previous studies that have focused on risk driven by frequent and small fires from anthropogenic ignitions. Wildfire simulation modeling was used to characterize potential wildfire behavior in terms of annual burn probability and flame length. Spatial data on selected social and ecological features were obtained from Forest Service GIS databases and elsewhere. The potential wildfire behavior was then summarized for each spatial location of each resource. The analysis suggested strong spatial variation in both burn probability and conditional flame length for many of the features examined, including biodiversity, urban interfaces, and infrastructure. We propose that the spatial patterns in modeled wildfire behavior could be used to improve existing prioritization of fuel management and wildfire preparedness activities within the Pacific Northwest region. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program : guide to information contained in folio of geologic and mineral resource maps of the Philip Smith Mountains quadrangle, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reiser, H.N.; Brosge, W.P.; Hamilton, T.D.; Singer, D.A.; Menzie, W. D.; Bird, K.J.; Cady, J.W.; Le Compte, J. R.; Cathrall, J.B.

1983-01-01

The geology and mineral resources of the Philip Smith Mountains quadrangle were virtually unexplored until the investigations for oil began in northern Alaska. Construction of the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline System has now made the quadrangle accessible by road. In 1975 and 1976 a team of geologists, geochemists, and geophysicists investigated the quadrangle in order to assess its mineral resource potential. This report is a guide to the resulting folio of twelve maps that describe the geology, stream sediment geochemistry, aeromagnetic features, Landsat imagery, and mineral resources of the area. The bedrock geology and aeromagnetic surveys show that mineral deposits associated with intrusive rocks are probably absent. However, the geology and geochemical anomalies do indicate the possibility of vein and strata-bound deposits of copper, lead, and zinc in the Paleozoic shale and carbonate rocks in the southern part of the quadrangle and of stratabound deposits of zinc and copper in the Permian and Mesozoic shales along the mountain front. The northwestern part of the quadrangle has a low to moderate potential for oil or gas; Mississippian carbonate rocks are the most likely reservoir. The only minerals produced to date have been construction materials.

Mineral resource potential map of the Chama River Canyon Wilderness and contiguous roadless area, Rio Arriba County, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ridgley, Jennie L.; Light, Thomas D.

1983-01-01

The Chama River Canyon Wilderness and Roadless Area have a moderate to high potential for the presence of small deposits of copper with associated uranium and silver. These deposits, as yet undetected, would occur in the Permian Cutler Formation and in the lower part of the Triassic Chinle Formation, rock units that are, for the most part, present only in the subsurface. The presence of these deposits is inferred because such deposits occur in rocks of equivalent age in adjacent areas. Gypsum, of probable minable quality and quantity, occurs throughout the area. Oil and gas are possibly present in Pennsylvanian strata in the subsurface, although no drilling in the study area has tested this hypothesis. Other commodities, including noncopper-related uranium, kaolinite, chromium, vanadium, manganese, and bitumen, although present locally in anomalous concentrations, do not appear to constitute potential resources for these commodities.

Rare targets are less susceptible to attention capture once detection has begun.

PubMed

Hon, Nicholas; Ng, Gavin; Chan, Gerald

2016-04-01

Rare or low probability targets are detected more slowly and/ or less accurately than higher probability counterparts. Various proposals have implicated perceptual and response-based processes in this deficit. Recent evidence, however, suggests that it is attentional in nature, with low probability targets requiring more attentional resources than high probability ones to detect. This difference in attentional requirements, in turn, suggests the possibility that low and high probability targets may have different susceptibilities to attention capture, which is also known to be resource-dependent. Supporting this hypothesis, we found that, once attentional resources have begun to be engaged by detection processes, low, but not high, probability targets have a reduced susceptibility to capture. Our findings speak to several issues. First, they indicate that the likelihood of attention capture occurring when a given task-relevant stimulus is being processed is dependent, to some extent, on how said stimulus is represented within mental task sets. Second, they provide added support for the idea that the behavioural deficit associated with low probability targets is attention-based. Finally, the current data point to reduced top-down biasing of target templates as a likely mechanism underlying the attentional locus of the deficit in question.

Development of an assessment methodology for hydrocarbon recovery potential using carbon dioxide and associated carbon sequestration-Workshop findings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verma, Mahendra K.; Warwick, Peter D.

2011-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (Public Law 110-140) authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO2) and requested that the USGS estimate the "potential volumes of oil and gas recoverable by injection and sequestration of industrial carbon dioxide in potential sequestration formations" (121 Stat. 1711). The USGS developed a noneconomic, probability-based methodology to assess the Nation's technically assessable geologic storage resources available for sequestration of CO2 (Brennan and others, 2010) and is currently using the methodology to assess the Nation's CO2 geologic storage resources. Because the USGS has not developed a methodology to assess the potential volumes of technically recoverable hydrocarbons that could be produced by injection and sequestration of CO2, the Geologic Carbon Sequestration project initiated an effort in 2010 to develop a methodology for the assessment of the technically recoverable hydrocarbon potential in the sedimentary basins of the United States using enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques with CO2 (CO2-EOR). In collaboration with Stanford University, the USGS hosted a 2-day CO2-EOR workshop in May 2011, attended by 28 experts from academia, natural resource agencies and laboratories of the Federal Government, State and international geologic surveys, and representatives from the oil and gas industry. The geologic and the reservoir engineering and operations working groups formed during the workshop discussed various aspects of geology, reservoir engineering, and operations to make recommendations for the methodology.

Bioregional Assessments: Determining the Impacts of Coal Resource Development on Water Resources in Australia through Groundwater, Surface Water and Ecological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peeters, L. J.; Post, D. A.; Crosbie, R.; Holland, K.

2017-12-01

While extraction of methane from shale gas deposits has been the principal source of the recent expansion of the industry in the United States, in Australia extraction of methane from coal bed methane deposits (termed `coal seam gas' in Australia) has been the focus to date. The two sources of methane share many of the same characteristics including the potential requirement for hydraulic fracturing. However, as coal seam gas deposits generally occur at shallower depths than shale gas, the potential impacts of extraction on surface and groundwater resources may be of even greater concern. The Australian Federal Government commissioned a multi-disciplinary programme of bioregional assessments to improve understanding of the potential impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining activities on water resources and water-dependent assets across six bioregions Australia. A bioregional assessment is a transparent scientific analysis of the ecology, hydrology, geology and hydrogeology of a bioregion with explicit assessment of the potential direct, indirect and cumulative impacts of coal seam gas and large coal mining development on water resources. The first step in the analysis is to establish the most likely scenario for coal development in each region and establish a causal pathway linking coal development to impacts to the social, economic and ecological functioning of water resources. This forms the basis for a sequence of probabilistic geological, hydrogeological, hydrological and ecological models to quantify the probability of potential impacts. This suite of models is developed independent of the proponents and regulators of coal resource developments and so can provide unbiased information to all stakeholders. To demonstrate transparency of the modelling, all inputs, outputs and executables will be available from http://www.bioregionalassessments.gov.au. The analysis delineated a zone of potential hydrological change for each region, outside of which impacts from coal development are very unlikely. Within each zone, the analysis provides a regional estimate of the likely impacts and identifies the major knowledge and data gaps. This information provides a framework for further local study.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

Estimation of potential biomass resource and biogas production from aquatic plants in Argentina

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fitzsimons, R.E.; Laurino, C.N.; Vallejos, R.H.

1982-01-01

The Argentine government's Agua y Energia Electrica is planning to construct a hydroelectric power-generation facility on the middle Parana River, which is already heavily infested with aquatic weeds such as water hyacinth. These species will probably proliferate in the lakes that will be formed by the power project and perhaps seriously interfere with the facility. As a solution to this problem, Argentine biochemists propose mechanical harvesting and anaerobic fermentation of the aquatic plants to produce biogas and fertilizer. According to an evaluation of this potential resource, gross methane production could reach 37-153 billion CF (1.0-4.1 billion m/sup 3/)/yr, and themore » digested residue could provide 60,500-244,000 tons (54,900-221,400 metric tons)/yr of nitrogen, which represents 2-8 times Argentina's current nitrogen fertilizer demand.« less

IRISH WILDERNESS ROADLESS AREA, MISSOURI.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heyl, Allen V.; Ryan, George S.

1984-01-01

Based on surveys, parts of the Irish Wilderness Roadless Area, Missouri are considered to have a probable mineral-resource potential for the occurrence of lead, zinc, and silver deposits. The same Upper Cambrian formations that contain economic deposits of lead, zinc, silver, copper, and, in places, cobalt and nickel in the Viburnum Trend of the Southeast Missouri mining district occur in the deep subsurface within the roadless area. Further, buried hills and wide fault zones, known to be unusually good host areas for deposits in the Southeast Missouri mining district, have been identified by geophysical surveys in the roadless area. There is little promise for the occurrence of other mineral and energy resources in the roadless area.

Summary appraisals of the Nation's ground-water resources; Pacific Northwest region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foxworthy, Bruce L.

1979-01-01

Management opportunities in the region include: (1) Development of new supplies and additional uses of ground water; (2) protection and enhancement of water quality; (3) reduction of waterlogging; (4) energy development from some ground-water reservoirs; (5) improving access to the ground water; (6) increased use of underground space for storage and disposal; and (7) greater use of advanced management and conservation techniques. Conjunctive use of surface and ground water to provide greater available supplies probably is the most promising water-management opportunity. However, if the full potential of the ground-water resources is to be realized, important constraints, including present water-right structures and serious deficiencies in information, must be overcome.

Women, men and public health-how the choice of normative theory affects resource allocation.

PubMed

Månsdotter, Anna; Lindholm, Lars; Ohman, Ann

2004-09-01

Women live longer than men in almost all countries, but men are more privileged in terms of power, influence, resources and probably morbidity. This investigation aims at illustrating how the choice of normative framework affects judgements about the fairness in these sex differences, and about desired societal change. The selected theories are welfare economics, health sector extra-welfarism, justice as fairness and feminist justice. By means of five Swedish proposals aiming at improving the population's health or "sex equity", facts and values are applied to resource allocation. Although we do not claim a specific ethical foundation, it seems to us that the feminist criterion has great potential in public health policy. The overall conclusion is that the normative framework must be explicitly discussed and stated in issues of women's and men's health.

Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

FASP, an analytic resource appraisal program for petroleum play analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.; Balay, R.H.

1986-01-01

An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented in a FORTRAN program termed FASP. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An established geologic model considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The program FASP produces resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and many laws of expectation and variance. ?? 1986.

The mediating effect of psychosocial factors on suicidal probability among adolescents.

PubMed

Hur, Ji-Won; Kim, Won-Joong; Kim, Yong-Ku

2011-01-01

Suicidal probability is an actual tendency including negative self-evaluation, hopelessness, suicidal ideation, and hostility. The purpose of this study was to examine the role of psychosocial variances in the suicidal probability of adolescents, especially the role of mediating variance. This study investigated the mediating effects of psychosocial factors such as depression, anxiety, self-esteem, stress, and social support on the suicidal probability among 1,586 adolescents attending middle and high schools in the Kyunggi Province area of South Korea. The relationship between depression and anxiety/suicidal probability was mediated by both social resources and self-esteem. Furthermore, the influence of social resources was mediated by interpersonal and achievement stress as well as self-esteem. This study suggests that suicidal probability in adolescents has various relationships, including mediating relations, with several psychosocial factors. The interventions on suicidal probability in adolescents should focus on social factors as well as clinical symptoms.

Geologic Insights and Suggestions on Mineral Potential Based on Analyses of Geophysical Data of the Southern Toquima Range, Nye County, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shawe, D.R.; Kucks, R.P.; Hildenbrand, T.G.

2004-01-01

Aeromagnetic and gravity data provide confirmation of major structural and lithologic units in the southern Toquima Range, Nevada. These units include Cretaceous granite plutons and Tertiary calderas. In addition, the geophysical maps pinpoint numerous faults and lesser intrusions, and they suggest locations of several inferred subsurface intrusions. They also corroborate a system of northwesterly and northeasterly conjugate structures that probably are fundamental to the structural framework of the Toquima Range. A combination of geophysical, geochemical, and geologic data available for the widely mineralized and productive area suggests additional mineral resource potential, especially in and (or) adjacent to the Round Mountain, Jefferson, Manhattan, and Belmont mining districts. Also, evidence for mineral potential exists for areas near the Flower mercury mine south of Mount Jefferson caldera, and in the Bald Mountain Canyon belt of gold-quartz veins in the Manhattan caldera. A few other areas also show potential for mineral resources. The various geologic environments indicated within the map area suggest base- and precious-metal potential in porphyry deposits as well as in quartz-vein and skarn deposits associated with intrusive stocks.

Solving the Puzzle of Metastasis: The Evolution of Cell Migration in Neoplasms

PubMed Central

Chen, Jun; Sprouffske, Kathleen; Huang, Qihong; Maley, Carlo C.

2011-01-01

Background Metastasis represents one of the most clinically important transitions in neoplastic progression. The evolution of metastasis is a puzzle because a metastatic clone is at a disadvantage in competition for space and resources with non-metastatic clones in the primary tumor. Metastatic clones waste some of their reproductive potential on emigrating cells with little chance of establishing metastases. We suggest that resource heterogeneity within primary tumors selects for cell migration, and that cell emigration is a by-product of that selection. Methods and Findings We developed an agent-based model to simulate the evolution of neoplastic cell migration. We simulated the essential dynamics of neoangiogenesis and blood vessel occlusion that lead to resource heterogeneity in neoplasms. We observed the probability and speed of cell migration that evolves with changes in parameters that control the degree of spatial and temporal resource heterogeneity. Across a broad range of realistic parameter values, increasing degrees of spatial and temporal heterogeneity select for the evolution of increased cell migration and emigration. Conclusions We showed that variability in resources within a neoplasm (e.g. oxygen and nutrients provided by angiogenesis) is sufficient to select for cells with high motility. These cells are also more likely to emigrate from the tumor, which is the first step in metastasis and the key to the puzzle of metastasis. Thus, we have identified a novel potential solution to the puzzle of metastasis. PMID:21556134

Sandhill crane roost selection, human disturbance, and forage resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, Aaron T.; Krapu, Gary; Brandt, David

2017-01-01

Sites used for roosting represent a key habitat requirement for many species of birds because availability and quality of roost sites can influence individual fitness. Birds select roost sites based on numerous factors, requirements, and motivations, and selection of roosts can be dynamic in time and space because of various ecological and environmental influences. For sandhill cranes (Antigone canadensis) at their main spring-staging area along the Platte River in south-central Nebraska, USA, past investigations of roosting cranes focused on physical channel characteristics related to perceived security as motivating roost distribution. We used 6,310 roost sites selected by 313 sandhill cranes over 5 spring migration seasons (2003–2007) to quantify resource selection functions of roost sites on the central Platte River using a discrete choice analysis. Sandhill cranes generally showed stronger selection for wider channels with shorter bank vegetation situated farther from potential human disturbance features such as roads, bridges, and dwellings. Furthermore, selection for roost sites with preferable physical characteristics (wide channels with short bank vegetation) was more resilient to nearby disturbance features than more narrow channels with taller bank vegetation. The amount of cornfields surrounding sandhill crane roost sites positively influenced relative probability of use but only for more narrow channels < 100 m and those with shorter bank vegetation. We confirmed key resource features that sandhill cranes selected at river channels along the Platte River, and after incorporating spatial variation due to human disturbance, our understanding of roost site selection was more robust, providing insights on how disturbance may interact with physical habitat features. Managers can use information on roost-site selection when developing plans to increase probability of crane use at existing roost sites and to identify new areas for potential use if existing sites become limited.

Reply to Efford on ‘Integrating resource selection information with spatial capture-recapture’

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, Andy; Chandler, Richard; Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.

2014-01-01

3. A key point of Royle et al. (Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2013, 4) was that active resource selection induces heterogeneity in encounter probability which, if unaccounted for, should bias estimates of population size or density. The models of Royle et al. (Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2013, 4) and Efford (Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2014, 000, 000) merely amount to alternative models of resource selection, and hence varying amounts of heterogeneity in encounter probability.

Life-history trade-offs vary with resource availability across the geographic range of a widespread plant.

PubMed

Villellas, J; García, M B

2018-05-01

Trade-offs between reproduction, growth and survival arise from limited resource availability in plants. Environmental stress is expected to exacerbate these negative correlations, but no studies have evaluated variation in life-history trade-offs throughout species geographic ranges. Here we analyse the costs of growth and reproduction across the latitudinal range of the widespread herb Plantago coronopus in Europe. We monitored the performance of thousands of individuals in 11 populations of P. coronopus, and tested whether the effects of growth and reproduction on a set of vital rates (growth, probability of survival, probability of reproduction and fecundity) varied with local precipitation and soil fertility. To account for variation in internal resources among individuals, we analysed trade-offs correcting for differences in size. Growth was negatively affected by previous growth and reproduction. We also found costs of growth and reproduction on survival, reproduction probability and fecundity, but only in populations with low soil fertility. Costs also increased with precipitation, possibly due to flooding-related stress. In contrast, growth was positively correlated with subsequent survival, and there was a positive covariation in reproduction between consecutive years under certain environments, a potential strategy to exploit temporary benign conditions. Overall, we found both negative and positive correlations among vital rates across P. coronopus geographic range. Trade-offs predominated under stressful conditions, and positive correlations arose particularly between related traits like reproduction investment across years. By analysing multiple and diverse fitness components along stress gradients, we can better understand life-history evolution across species' ranges, and their responses to environmental change. © 2017 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Prospects for stakeholder coordination by protected-area managers in Europe.

PubMed

Mattsson, Brady J; Vacik, Harald

2018-02-01

Growing resource demands by humans, invasive species, natural hazards, and a changing climate have created broad-scale impacts and the need for broader-extent conservation activities that span ownerships and even political borders. Implementing regional-scale conservation brings great challenges, and learning how to overcome these challenges is essential for maintaining biodiversity (i.e., richness and evenness of biological communities) and ecosystem functions and services across scales and borders in the face of system change. We administered an online survey to examine factors potentially driving perspectives of protected-area (PA) managers regarding coordination with neighboring PAs and other stakeholders (i.e., stakeholder coordination) for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services during the next decade within diverse regions across Europe. Although >70% (n = 58) of responding PA managers indicated that climate change and invasive species are relevant for their PAs, they gave <50% probability that these threats could be mitigated through stakeholder coordination. They thought there was a >60% probability (n = 85) that stakeholder coordination would take place with the aim to improve conservation outcomes. Consistent with the foundation on which many European PAs were established, managers viewed maintaining or enhancing biodiversity as the most important (>70%; n = 61) expected benefit. Other benefits included maintaining or enhancing human resources and environmental education (range of Bayesian credibility intervals [CIs] 57-93%). They thought the main barriers to stakeholder coordination were the lack of human and economic resources (CI 59-67% chance of hindering; n = 64) followed by communication and interstakeholder differences in political structures and laws (CI 51-64% probability of hindering). European policies and strategies that address these hindering factors could be particularly effective means of enabling implementation of green infrastructure networks in which PAs are the nodes. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Jeffrey D. Kaiden; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2013-01-01

Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with...

Probability of Elevated Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Concentrations in Groundwater in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Plummer, Niel

2009-01-01

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of elevated volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps was developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Probability of Elevated Nitrate Concentrations in Groundwater in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Plummer, Niel

2009-01-01

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of elevated nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps was developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Using PETRIMES to estimate mercury deposits in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, P.J.; Singer, D.A.

1994-01-01

In this article, we examine the use of an unconventional procedure, PETRIMES, to estimate mineral resources of mercury deposits in California. The study, which is based on the nonparametric discovery process model and Q-Q plots, suggests that a lognormal distribution is appropriate for the mercury deposits in California. The results of the assessment are summarized as follows: (1) the total number of mercury deposits in the population is approximately 165; (2) the median value of the largest undiscovered deposit size is 487 flasks; (3) the mean of the remaining mercury potential is 2,500 flasks; and (4) the population resource ranges from 1,040,000 to 4,300,000 flasks (at a 0.9 probability level). ?? 1994 Oxford University Press.

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, R. V.; Mulcahy, R.; Rubin, D.; Antonsen, E. L.; Kerstman, E. L.; Reyes, D.

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. NASA recognizes the need to improve capabilities for autonomous care on such missions. As the medical system is developed, it is important to have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources was developed for this reason, and is now a system to gauge the relative importance of medical resources in addressing medical conditions. METHODS: A list of medical conditions of potential concern for an exploration mission was referenced from the Integrated Medical Model, a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. The diagnostic and treatment modalities required to address best and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition, at the terrestrial standard of care, were entered into a database. This list included tangible assets (e.g. medications) and intangible assets (e.g. clinical skills to perform a procedure). A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program ranked each of the items listed according to its criticality. Data was then obtained from the IMM for the probability of occurrence of the medical conditions, including a breakdown of best case and worst case, during a Mars reference mission. The probability of occurrence information and criticality for each resource were taken into account during analytics performed using Tableau software. RESULTS: A database and weighting system to evaluate all the diagnostic and treatment modalities was created by combining the probability of condition occurrence data with the criticalities assigned by the physician team. DISCUSSION: Exploration Medical Capabilities research at NASA is focused on providing a medical system to support crew medical needs in the context of a Mars mission. MONSTR is a novel approach to performing a quantitative risk analysis that will assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of various medical conditions. It will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of the exploration medical system.

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, Timothy; Lanfear, K.J.

1982-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method of route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occured), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, T.; Lanfear, K.J.

1980-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method and route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occurred), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

Integrating resource selection information with spatial capture--recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.

2013-01-01

4. Finally, we find that SCR models using standard symmetric and stationary encounter probability models may not fully explain variation in encounter probability due to space usage, and therefore produce biased estimates of density when animal space usage is related to resource selection. Consequently, it is important that space usage be taken into consideration, if possible, in studies focused on estimating density using capture–recapture methods.

VARIANCE ESTIMATION FOR SPATIALLY BALANCED SAMPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

The spatial distribution of a natural resource is an important consideration in designing an efficient survey or monitoring program for the resource. We review a unified strategy for designing probability samples of discrete, finite resource populations, such as lakes within som...

Statistics Online Computational Resource for Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dinov, Ivo D.; Christou, Nicolas

2009-01-01

The Statistics Online Computational Resource (http://www.SOCR.ucla.edu) provides one of the largest collections of free Internet-based resources for probability and statistics education. SOCR develops, validates and disseminates two core types of materials--instructional resources and computational libraries. (Contains 2 figures.)

Using GIS to generate spatially balanced random survey designs for natural resource applications.

PubMed

Theobald, David M; Stevens, Don L; White, Denis; Urquhart, N Scott; Olsen, Anthony R; Norman, John B

2007-07-01

Sampling of a population is frequently required to understand trends and patterns in natural resource management because financial and time constraints preclude a complete census. A rigorous probability-based survey design specifies where to sample so that inferences from the sample apply to the entire population. Probability survey designs should be used in natural resource and environmental management situations because they provide the mathematical foundation for statistical inference. Development of long-term monitoring designs demand survey designs that achieve statistical rigor and are efficient but remain flexible to inevitable logistical or practical constraints during field data collection. Here we describe an approach to probability-based survey design, called the Reversed Randomized Quadrant-Recursive Raster, based on the concept of spatially balanced sampling and implemented in a geographic information system. This provides environmental managers a practical tool to generate flexible and efficient survey designs for natural resource applications. Factors commonly used to modify sampling intensity, such as categories, gradients, or accessibility, can be readily incorporated into the spatially balanced sample design.

ProbOnto: ontology and knowledge base of probability distributions.

PubMed

Swat, Maciej J; Grenon, Pierre; Wimalaratne, Sarala

2016-09-01

Probability distributions play a central role in mathematical and statistical modelling. The encoding, annotation and exchange of such models could be greatly simplified by a resource providing a common reference for the definition of probability distributions. Although some resources exist, no suitably detailed and complex ontology exists nor any database allowing programmatic access. ProbOnto, is an ontology-based knowledge base of probability distributions, featuring more than 80 uni- and multivariate distributions with their defining functions, characteristics, relationships and re-parameterization formulas. It can be used for model annotation and facilitates the encoding of distribution-based models, related functions and quantities. http://probonto.org mjswat@ebi.ac.uk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Geology and assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Yukon Flats Basin Province, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bird, Kenneth J.; Stanley, Richard G.; Moore, Thomas E.; Gautier, Donald L.

2017-12-22

The hydrocarbon potential of the Yukon Flats Basin Province in Central Alaska was assessed in 2004 as part of an update to the National Oil and Gas Assessment. Three assessment units (AUs) were identified and assessed using a methodology somewhat different than that of the 2008 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA). An important difference in the methodology of the two assessments is that the 2004 assessment specified a minimum accumulation size of 0.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE), whereas the 2008 CARA assessment specified a minimum size of 50 MMBOE. The 2004 assessment concluded that >95 percent of the estimated mean undiscovered oil and gas resources occur in a single AU, the Tertiary Sandstone AU. This is also the only AU of the three that extends north of the Arctic Circle.For the CARA project, the number of oil and gas accumulations in the 2004 assessment of the Tertiary Sandstone AU was re-evaluated in terms of the >50-MMBOE minimum accumulation size. By this analysis, and assuming the resource to be evenly distributed across the AU, 0.23 oil fields and 1.20 gas fields larger than 50 MMBOE are expected in the part of the AU north of the Arctic Circle. The geology suggests, however, that the area north of the Arctic Circle has a lower potential for oil and gas accumulations than the area to the south where the sedimentary section is thicker, larger volumes of hydrocarbons may have been generated, and potential structural traps are probably more abundant. Because of the low potential implied for the area of the AU north of the Arctic Circle, the Yukon Flats Tertiary Sandstone AU was not quantitatively assessed for the 2008 CARA.

Oil-spill risk analysis: Cook inlet outer continental shelf lease sale 149. Volume 1. The analysis. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, W.R.; Marshall, C.F.; Anderson, C.M.

1994-08-01

This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis (OSRA) conducted for the proposed lower Cook Inlet Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Lease Sale 149. The objective of this analysis was to estimate relative oil-spill risks associated with oil and gas production from the leasing alternatives proposed for the lease sale. The Minerals Management Service (MMS) will consider the analysis in the environmental impact statement (EIS) prepared for the lease sale. The analysis for proposed OCS Lease Sale 149 was conducted in three parts corresponding to different aspects of the overall problem. The first part dealt with the probability of oil-spillmore » occurrence. The second dealt with trajectories of oil spills from potential spill sites to various environmental resources or land segments. The third part combined the results of the first two parts to give estimates of the overall oil-spill risk if there is oil production as a result of the lease sale. To aid the analysis, conditional risk contour maps of seasonal conditional probabilities of spill contact were generated for each environmental resource or land segment in the study area (see vol. 2).« less

Unusual positional effects on flower sex in an andromonoecious tree: Resource competition, architectural constraints, or inhibition by the apical flower?

PubMed

Granado-Yela, Carlos; Balaguer, Luis; Cayuela, Luis; Méndez, Marcos

2017-04-01

Two, nonmutually exclusive, mechanisms-competition for resources and architectural constraints-have been proposed to explain the proximal to distal decline in flower size, mass, and/or femaleness in indeterminate, elongate inflorescences. Whether these mechanisms also explain unusual positional effects such as distal to proximal declines of floral performance in determinate inflorescences, is understudied. We tested the relative influence of these mechanisms in the andromonoecious wild olive tree, where hermaphroditic flowers occur mainly on apical and the most proximal positions in determinate inflorescences. We experimentally increased the availability of resources for the inflorescences by removing half of the inflorescences per twig or reduced resource availability by removing leaves. We also removed the apical flower to test its inhibitory effect on subapical flowers. The apical flower had the highest probability of being hermaphroditic. Further down, however, the probability of finding a hermaphroditic flower decreased from the base to the tip of the inflorescences. An experimental increase of resources increased the probability of finding hermaphroditic flowers at each position, and vice versa. Removal of the apical flower increased the probability of producing hermaphroditic flowers in proximal positions but not in subapical positions. These results indicate an interaction between resource competition and architectural constraints in influencing the arrangement of the hermaphroditic and male flowers within the inflorescences of the wild olive tree. Subapical flowers did not seem to be hormonally suppressed by apical flowers. The study of these unusual positional effects is needed for a general understanding about the functional implications of inflorescence architecture. © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

Probability of Unmixed Young Groundwater (defined using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities) in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Plummer, Niel

2009-01-01

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of unmixed young groundwater (defined using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities) in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps were developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Undiscovered locatable mineral resources in the Bay Resource Management Plan Area, Southwestern Alaska: A probabilistic assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidt, J.M.; Light, T.D.; Drew, L.J.; Wilson, Frederic H.; Miller, M.L.; Saltus, R.W.

2007-01-01

The Bay Resource Management Plan (RMP) area in southwestern Alaska, north and northeast of Bristol Bay contains significant potential for undiscovered locatable mineral resources of base and precious metals, in addition to metallic mineral deposits that are already known. A quantitative probabilistic assessment has identified 24 tracts of land that are permissive for 17 mineral deposit model types likely to be explored for within the next 15 years in this region. Commodities we discuss in this report that have potential to occur in the Bay RMP area are Ag, Au, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mo, Pb, Sn, W, Zn, and platinum-group elements. Geoscience data for the region are sufficient to make quantitative estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits only for porphyry copper, epithermal vein, copper skarn, iron skarn, hot-spring mercury, placer gold, and placer platinum-deposit models. A description of a group of shallow- to intermediate-level intrusion-related gold deposits is combined with grade and tonnage data from 13 deposits of this type to provide a quantitative estimate of undiscovered deposits of this new type. We estimate that significant resources of Ag, Au, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mo, Pb, and Pt occur in the Bay Resource Management Plan area in these deposit types. At the 10th percentile probability level, the Bay RMP area is estimated to contain 10,067 metric tons silver, 1,485 metric tons gold, 12.66 million metric tons copper, 560 million metric tons iron, 8,100 metric tons mercury, 500,000 metric tons molybdenum, 150 metric tons lead, and 17 metric tons of platinum in undiscovered deposits of the eight quantified deposit types. At the 90th percentile probability level, the Bay RMP area is estimated to contain 89 metric tons silver, 14 metric tons gold, 911,215 metric tons copper, 330,000 metric tons iron, 1 metric ton mercury, 8,600 metric tons molybdenum and 1 metric ton platinum in undiscovered deposits of the eight deposit types. Other commodities, which may occur in the Bay RMP area, include Cr, Sn, W, Zn, and other platinum-group elements such as Ir, Os, and Pd. We define 13 permissive tracts for 9 additional deposit model types. These are: Besshi- and Cyprus, and Kuroko-volcanogenic massive sulfides, hot spring gold, low sulfide gold veins, Mississippi-Valley Pb-Zn, tin greisen, zinc skarn and Alaskan-type zoned ultramafic platinum-group element deposits. Resources in undiscovered deposits of these nine types have not been quantified, and would be in addition to those in known deposits and the undiscovered resources listed above. Additional mineral resources also may occur in the Bay RMP area in deposit types, which were not considered here.

Mistletoe Infection in an Oak Forest Is Influenced by Competition and Host Size

PubMed Central

Matula, Radim; Svátek, Martin; Pálková, Marcela; Volařík, Daniel; Vrška, Tomáš

2015-01-01

Host size and distance from an infected plant have been previously found to affect mistletoe occurrence in woody vegetation but the effect of host plant competition on mistletoe infection has not been empirically tested. For an individual tree, increasing competition from neighbouring trees decreases its resource availability, and resource availability is also known to affect the establishment of mistletoes on host trees. Therefore, competition is likely to affect mistletoe infection but evidence for such a mechanism is lacking. Based on this, we hypothesised that the probability of occurrence as well as the abundance of mistletoes on a tree would increase not only with increasing host size and decreasing distance from an infected tree but also with decreasing competition by neighbouring trees. Our hypothesis was tested using generalized linear models (GLMs) with data on Loranthus europaeus Jacq., one of the two most common mistletoes in Europe, on 1015 potential host stems collected in a large fully mapped plot in the Czech Republic. Because many trees were multi-stemmed, we ran the analyses for both individual stems and whole trees. We found that the probability of mistletoe occurrence on individual stems was affected mostly by stem size, whereas competition had the most important effects on the probability of mistletoe occurrence on whole trees as well as on mistletoe abundance. Therefore, we confirmed our hypothesis that competition among trees has a negative effect on mistletoe occurrence. PMID:25992920

Profiles of innovators in a semi-arid smallholder agricultural environment in south west Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutsvangwa-Sammie, Eness P.; Manzungu, Emmanuel; Siziba, Shephard

2017-08-01

Innovations are regarded as critical to improving the efficiency, productivity and effectiveness of African agriculture. However, few efforts have been directed at understanding 'agricultural innovators', especially among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa who face low agricultural productivity and widespread food insecurity. This paper investigates the profile of innovators from a local perspective in a semi-arid smallholder farming area in south-west Zimbabwe. The paper is based on data collected from key informant interviews and a household questionnaire survey administered to 239 households from Gwanda and Insiza districts between 2013 and 2014. Qualities or attributes of an innovator (which constitute the profile of an innovator) identified by key informants included: resource endowment; social networks; education; and enthusiasm (passionate and hardworking). The attributes were used in a logit regression model to estimate the probability of the 239 households exhibiting the attributes of an innovator. Social networks and resource endowment, as depicted by amount of land cultivated, were found to significantly influence the probability of an individual being an innovator. Interestingly, the common attributes of education or belonging to an innovation platform used by extension and development agents, were found not to influence the probability of one being an innovator. The paper concludes that understanding local perceptions of innovators, which is based on appreciation of the socio-economic and biophysical circumstances, should be used to identify a 'basket' of context specific innovations that have potential to address the diverse needs of rural households farming households.

Reconnaissance of the hydrothermal resources of Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rush, F. Eugene

1983-01-01

Geologic factors in the Basin and Range province in Utah are more favorable for the occurrence of geothermal resources than in other areas on the Colorado Plateaus or in the Middle Rocky Mountains. These geologic factors are principally crustal extension and crustal thinning during the last 17 million years. Basalts as young as 10,000 years have been mapped in the area. High-silica volcanic and intru­sive rocks of Quaternary age can be used to locate hydrothermal convection systems. Drilling for hot, high-silica, buried rock bodies is most promising in the areas of recent volcanic activity. Southwestern Utah has more geothermal potential than other parts of the Basin and Range province in Utah. The Roosevelt Hot Springs area, the Cove Fort-Sulphurdale area, and the area to the north as far as 60 kilome­ters from them probably have the best potential for geothermal devel­opment for generation of electricity. Other areas with estimated res­ervoir temperatures greater than 150°C are Thermo, Monroe, Red Hill (in the Monroe-Joseph Known Geothermal Resource Area), Joseph Hot Springs, and the Newcastle area. The rates of heat and water discharge are high at Crater, Meadow, and Hatton Hot Springs, but estimated reservoir temperatures there are less than 150°C. Ad­ditional exploration is needed to define the potential in three ad­ditional areas in the Escalante Desert.

Geology and assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Chukchi Borderland Province, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bird, Kenneth J.; Houseknecht, David W.; Moore, Thomas E.; Gautier, Donald L.

2017-12-22

The Chukchi Borderland is both a stand-alone petroleum province and assessment unit (AU) that lies north of the Chukchi Sea. It is a bathymetrically high-standing block of continental crust that was probably rifted from the Canadian continental margin. The sum of our knowledge of this province is based upon geophysical data (seismic, gravity, and magnetic) and a limited number of seafloor core and dredge samples. As expected from the limited data set, the basin’s petroleum potential is poorly known. A single assessment unit, the Chukchi Borderland AU, was defined and assigned an overall probability of about a 5 percent chance of at least one petroleum accumulation >50 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE). No quantitative assessment of sizes and numbers of petroleum accumulations was conducted for this AU.

Forecasting distribution of numbers of large fires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Howard, Stephen; Burgan, Robert E.

2014-01-01

Systems to estimate forest fire potential commonly utilize one or more indexes that relate to expected fire behavior; however they indicate neither the chance that a large fire will occur, nor the expected number of large fires. That is, they do not quantify the probabilistic nature of fire danger. In this work we use large fire occurrence information from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project, and satellite and surface observations of fuel conditions in the form of the Fire Potential Index, to estimate two aspects of fire danger: 1) the probability that a 1 acre ignition will result in a 100+ acre fire, and 2) the probabilities of having at least 1, 2, 3, or 4 large fires within a Predictive Services Area in the forthcoming week. These statistical processes are the main thrust of the paper and are used to produce two daily national forecasts that are available from the U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center and via the Wildland Fire Assessment System. A validation study of our forecasts for the 2013 fire season demonstrated good agreement between observed and forecasted values.

User’s guide for MapMark4—An R package for the probability calculations in three-part mineral resource assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellefsen, Karl J.

2017-06-27

MapMark4 is a software package that implements the probability calculations in three-part mineral resource assessments. Functions within the software package are written in the R statistical programming language. These functions, their documentation, and a copy of this user’s guide are bundled together in R’s unit of shareable code, which is called a “package.” This user’s guide includes step-by-step instructions showing how the functions are used to carry out the probability calculations. The calculations are demonstrated using test data, which are included in the package.

Dynamic Resource Adjustment to Provide Seamless Streaming Services on Multimedia Mobile Cellular Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chow-Sing; Yen, Fang-Zhi

With the rapid advances in wireless network communication, multimedia presentation has become more applicable. However, due to the limited wireless network resource and the mobility of Mobile Host (MH), QoS for wireless streaming is much more difficult to maintain. How to decrease Call Dropping Probability (CDP) in multimedia traffic while still keeping acceptable Call Block Probability (CBP) without sacrificing QoS has become an significant issue in providing wireless streaming services. In this paper, we propose a novel Dynamic Resources Adjustment (DRA) algorithm, which can dynamically borrow idle reserved resources in the serving cell or the target cell for handoffing MHs to compensate the shortage of bandwidth in media streaming. The experimental simulation results show that compared with traditional No Reservation (NR), and Resource Reservation in the six neighboring cells (RR-nb), and Resource Reservation in the target cell (RR-t), our proposed DRA algorithm can fully utilize unused reserved resources to effectively decrease the CDP while still keeping acceptable CBP with high bandwidth utilization.

Sandstone copper assessment of the Chu-Sarysu Basin, Central Kazakhstan: Chapter E in Global mineral resource assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Box, Stephen E.; Syusyura, Boris; Hayes, Timothy S.; Taylor, Cliff D.; Zientek, Michael L.; Hitzman, Murray W.; Seltmann, Reimar; Chechetkin, Vladimir; Dolgopolova, Alla; Cossette, Pamela M.; Wallis, John C.

2012-01-01

The team estimates that 26 undiscovered deposits occur within the Chu-Sarysu Basin, and that these deposits contain an arithmetic mean of at least 21.5 million metric tons (Mt) of copper and 21,900 metric tons (t) of silver. The undiscovered deposits are in addition to the 7 known deposits that contain identified resources of 27.6 Mt of copper. Sixty percent of the estimated mean undiscovered copper resources are associated with the two permissive tracts that contain the identified resources; the remaining estimated resources are associated with the two tracts that have no known deposits. For the three tracts that contain 95 percent of the estimated undiscovered copper resources, the probability that each tract contains its estimated mean or more is about 40 percent. For the tract with 5 percent of the estimated undiscovered cop-per resources, the probability that it contains that amount or more is 25 percent.

Satellite Based Probabilistic Snow Cover Extent Mapping (SCE) at Hydro-Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teasdale, Mylène; De Sève, Danielle; Angers, Jean-François; Perreault, Luc

2016-04-01

Over 40% of Canada's water resources are in Quebec and Hydro-Quebec has developed potential to become one of the largest producers of hydroelectricity in the world, with a total installed capacity of 36,643 MW. The Hydro-Québec fleet park includes 27 large reservoirs with a combined storage capacity of 176 TWh, and 668 dams and 98 controls. Thus, over 98% of all electricity used to supply the domestic market comes from water resources and the excess output is sold on the wholesale markets. In this perspective the efficient management of water resources is needed and it is based primarily on a good river flow estimation including appropriate hydrological data. Snow on ground is one of the significant variables representing 30% to 40% of its annual energy reserve. More specifically, information on snow cover extent (SCE) and snow water equivalent (SWE) is crucial for hydrological forecasting, particularly in northern regions since the snowmelt provides the water that fills the reservoirs and is subsequently used for hydropower generation. For several years Hydro Quebec's research institute ( IREQ) developed several algorithms to map SCE and SWE. So far all the methods were deterministic. However, given the need to maximize the efficient use of all resources while ensuring reliability, the electrical systems must now be managed taking into account all risks. Since snow cover estimation is based on limited spatial information, it is important to quantify and handle its uncertainty in the hydrological forecasting system. This paper presents the first results of a probabilistic algorithm for mapping SCE by combining Bayesian mixture of probability distributions and multiple logistic regression models applied to passive microwave data. This approach allows assigning for each grid point, probabilities to the set of the mutually exclusive discrete outcomes: "snow" and "no snow". Its performance was evaluated using the Brier score since it is particularly appropriate to measure the accuracy of probabilistic discrete predictions. The scores were measured by comparing the snow probabilities produced by our models with the Hydro-Québec's snow ground data.

Environmental probabilistic quantitative assessment methodologies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.

1995-01-01

In this paper, four petroleum resource assessment methodologies are presented as possible pollution assessment methodologies, even though petroleum as a resource is desirable, whereas pollution is undesirable. A methodology is defined in this paper to consist of a probability model and a probabilistic method, where the method is used to solve the model. The following four basic types of probability models are considered: 1) direct assessment, 2) accumulation size, 3) volumetric yield, and 4) reservoir engineering. Three of the four petroleum resource assessment methodologies were written as microcomputer systems, viz. TRIAGG for direct assessment, APRAS for accumulation size, and FASPU for reservoir engineering. A fourth microcomputer system termed PROBDIST supports the three assessment systems. The three assessment systems have different probability models but the same type of probabilistic method. The type of advantages of the analytic method are in computational speed and flexibility, making it ideal for a microcomputer. -from Author

Quantitative assessment of future development of cooper/silver resources in the Kootenai National Forest, Idaho/Montana: Part I-Estimation of the copper and silver endowments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spanski, G.T.

1992-01-01

Faced with an ever-increasing diversity of demand for the use of public lands, managers and planners are turning more often to a multiple-use approach to meet those demands. This approach requires the uses to be mutually compatible and to utilize the more valuable attributes or resource values of the land. Therefore, it is imperative that planners be provided with all available information on attribute and resource values in a timely fashion and in a format that facilitates a comparative evaluation. The Kootenai National Forest administration enlisted the U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Bureau of Mines to perform a quantitative assessment of future copper/silver production potential within the forest from sediment-hosted copper deposits in the Revett Formation that are similar to those being mined at the Troy Mine near Spar Lake. The U.S. Geological Survey employed a quantitative assessment technique that compared the favorable host terrane in the Kootenai area with worldwide examples of known sediment-hosted copper deposits. The assessment produced probabilistic estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits that may be present in the area and of the copper and silver endowment that might be contained in them. Results of the assessment suggest that the copper/silver deposit potential is highest in the southwestern one-third of the forest. In this area there is an estimated 50 percent probability of at least 50 additional deposits occurring mostly within approximately 260,000 acres where the Revett Formation is thought to be present in the subsurface at depths of less than 1,500 meters. A Monte Carlo type simulation using data on the grade and tonnage characteristics of other known silver-rich, sediment-hosted copper deposits predicts a 50 percent probability that these undiscovered deposits will contain at least 19 million tonnes of copper and 100,000 tonnes of silver. Combined with endowments estimated for identified, but not thoroughly explored deposits, and deposits that might also occur in the remaining area of the forest, the endowment potential increases to 23 million tonnes of copper and 190,000 tonnes of silver. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Cost of equity in homeland security resource allocation in the face of a strategic attacker.

PubMed

Shan, Xiaojun; Zhuang, Jun

2013-06-01

Hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent in homeland security since September 11, 2001. Many mathematical models have been developed to study strategic interactions between governments (defenders) and terrorists (attackers). However, few studies have considered the tradeoff between equity and efficiency in homeland security resource allocation. In this article, we fill this gap by developing a novel model in which a government allocates defensive resources among multiple potential targets, while reserving a portion of defensive resources (represented by the equity coefficient) for equal distribution (according to geographical areas, population, density, etc.). Such a way to model equity is one of many alternatives, but was directly inspired by homeland security resource allocation practice. The government is faced with a strategic terrorist (adaptive adversary) whose attack probabilities are endogenously determined in the model. We study the effect of the equity coefficient on the optimal defensive resource allocations and the corresponding expected loss. We find that the cost of equity (in terms of increased expected loss) increases convexly in the equity coefficient. Furthermore, such cost is lower when: (a) government uses per-valuation equity; (b) the cost-effectiveness coefficient of defense increases; and (c) the total defense budget increases. Our model, results, and insights could be used to assist policy making. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-based decision making for staggered bioterrorist attacks : resource allocation and risk reduction in "reload" scenarios.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lemaster, Michelle Nicole; Gay, David M.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew

2009-10-01

Staggered bioterrorist attacks with aerosolized pathogens on population centers present a formidable challenge to resource allocation and response planning. The response and planning will commence immediately after the detection of the first attack and with no or little information of the second attack. In this report, we outline a method by which resource allocation may be performed. It involves probabilistic reconstruction of the bioterrorist attack from partial observations of the outbreak, followed by an optimization-under-uncertainty approach to perform resource allocations. We consider both single-site and time-staggered multi-site attacks (i.e., a reload scenario) under conditions when resources (personnel and equipment whichmore » are difficult to gather and transport) are insufficient. Both communicable (plague) and non-communicable diseases (anthrax) are addressed, and we also consider cases when the data, the time-series of people reporting with symptoms, are confounded with a reporting delay. We demonstrate how our approach develops allocations profiles that have the potential to reduce the probability of an extremely adverse outcome in exchange for a more certain, but less adverse outcome. We explore the effect of placing limits on daily allocations. Further, since our method is data-driven, the resource allocation progressively improves as more data becomes available.« less

Spatially balanced survey designs for natural resources

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological resource monitoring programs typically require the use of a probability survey design to select locations or entities to be physically sampled in the field. The ecological resource of interest, the target population, occurs over a spatial domain and the sample selecte...

Geomorphologic and geologic overview for water resources development: Kharit basin, Eastern Desert, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosaad, Sayed

2017-10-01

This study demonstrates the importance of geomorphologic, geologic and hydrogeologic assessment as an efficient approach for water resources development in the Kharit watershed. Kharit is one of largest watersheds in the Eastern Desert that lacks water for agricultural and drinking purposes, for the nomadic communities. This study aims to identify and evaluate the geomorphologic, geologic and hydrogeologic conditions in the Kharit watershed relative to water resource development using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The results reveal that the watershed contains 15 sub-basins and morphometric analyses show high probability for flash floods. These hazards can be managed by constructing earth dikes and masonry dams to minimize damage from flash floods and allow recharge of water to shallow groundwater aquifers. The Quaternary deposits and the Nubian sandstone have moderate to high infiltration rates and are relatively well drained, facilitating surface runoff and deep percolation into the underlying units. The sediments cover 54% of the watershed area and have high potential for groundwater extraction.

The Talara Basin province of northwestern Peru: cretaceous-tertiary total petroleum system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Higley, Debra K.

2004-01-01

More than 1.68 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 340 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFG) have been produced from the Cretaceous-Tertiary Total Petroleum System in the Talara Basin province, northwestern Peru. Oil and minor gas fields are concentrated in the onshore northern third of the province. Current production is primarily oil, but there is excellent potential for offshore gas resources, which is a mostly untapped resource because of the limited local market for gas and because there are few pipelines. Estimated mean recoverable resources from undiscovered fields in the basin are 1.71 billion barrels of oil (BBO), 4.79 trillion cubic feet of gas (TCFG), and 255 million barrels of natural gas liquids (NGL). Of this total resource, 15 percent has been allocated to onshore and 85 percent to offshore; volumes are 0.26 BBO and 0.72 TCFG onshore, and 1.45 BBO and 4.08 TCFG offshore. The mean estimate of numbers of undiscovered oil and gas fields is 83 and 27, respectively. Minimum size of fields that were used in this analysis is 1 million barrels of oil equivalent and (or) 6 BCFG. The Paleocene Talara forearc basin is superimposed on a larger, Mesozoic and pre-Mesozoic basin. Producing formations, ranging in age from Pennsylvanian to Oligocene, are mainly Upper Cretaceous through Oligocene sandstones of fluvial, deltaic, and nearshore to deep-marine depositional origins. The primary reservoirs and greatest potential for future development are Eocene sandstones that include turbidites of the Talara and Salinas Groups. Additional production and undiscovered resources exist within Upper Cretaceous, Paleocene, and Oligocene formations. Pennsylvanian Amotape quartzites may be productive where fractured. Trap types in this block-faulted basin are mainly structural or a combination of structure and stratigraphy. Primary reservoir seals are interbedded and overlying marine shales. Most fields produce from multiple reservoirs, and production is reported commingled. For this reason, and also because geochemical data on oils and source rocks is very limited, Tertiary and Cretaceous production is grouped into one total petroleum system. The most likely source rocks are Tertiary marine shales, but some of the Cretaceous marine shales are also probable source rocks, and these would represent separate total petroleum systems. Geochemical data on one oil sample from Pennsylvanian rock indicates that it was probably also sourced from Tertiary shales.

Probability model for analyzing fire management alternatives: theory and structure

Treesearch

Frederick W. Bratten

1982-01-01

A theoretical probability model has been developed for analyzing program alternatives in fire management. It includes submodels or modules for predicting probabilities of fire behavior, fire occurrence, fire suppression, effects of fire on land resources, and financial effects of fire. Generalized "fire management situations" are used to represent actual fire...

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Tack, Jason D.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development. PMID:26262876

Landscapes for energy and wildlife: conservation prioritization for golden eagles across large spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tack, Jason D.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales.

PubMed

Tack, Jason D; Fedy, Bradley C

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

Failure probability analysis of optical grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

2008-11-01

Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

Coupling Radar Rainfall to Hydrological Models for Water Abstraction Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asfaw, Alemayehu; Shucksmith, James; Smith, Andrea; MacDonald, Ken

2015-04-01

The impacts of climate change and growing water use are likely to put considerable pressure on water resources and the environment. In the UK, a reform to surface water abstraction policy has recently been proposed which aims to increase the efficiency of using available water resources whilst minimising impacts on the aquatic environment. Key aspects to this reform include the consideration of dynamic rather than static abstraction licensing as well as introducing water trading concepts. Dynamic licensing will permit varying levels of abstraction dependent on environmental conditions (i.e. river flow and quality). The practical implementation of an effective dynamic abstraction strategy requires suitable flow forecasting techniques to inform abstraction asset management. Potentially the predicted availability of water resources within a catchment can be coupled to predicted demand and current storage to inform a cost effective water resource management strategy which minimises environmental impacts. The aim of this work is to use a historical analysis of UK case study catchment to compare potential water resource availability using modelled dynamic abstraction scenario informed by a flow forecasting model, against observed abstraction under a conventional abstraction regime. The work also demonstrates the impacts of modelling uncertainties on the accuracy of predicted water availability over range of forecast lead times. The study utilised a conceptual rainfall-runoff model PDM - Probability-Distributed Model developed by Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - set up in the Dove River catchment (UK) using 1km2 resolution radar rainfall as inputs and 15 min resolution gauged flow data for calibration and validation. Data assimilation procedures are implemented to improve flow predictions using observed flow data. Uncertainties in the radar rainfall data used in the model are quantified using artificial statistical error model described by Gaussian distribution and propagated through the model to assess its influence on the forecasted flow uncertainty. Furthermore, the effects of uncertainties at different forecast lead times on potential abstraction strategies are assessed. The results show that over a 10 year period, an average of approximately 70 ML/d of potential water is missed in the study catchment under a convention abstraction regime. This indicates a considerable potential for the use of flow forecasting models to effectively implement advanced abstraction management and more efficiently utilize available water resources in the study catchment.

Environmental effects and individual body condition drive seasonal fecundity of rabbits: identifying acute and lagged processes.

PubMed

Wells, Konstans; O'Hara, Robert B; Cooke, Brian D; Mutze, Greg J; Prowse, Thomas A A; Fordham, Damien A

2016-07-01

The reproduction of many species is determined by seasonally-driven resource supply. But it is difficult to quantify whether the fecundity is sensitive to short- or long-term exposure to environmental conditions such as rainfall that drive resource supply. Using 25 years of data on individual fecundity of European female rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus, from semiarid Australia, we investigate the role of individual body condition, rainfall and temperature as drivers of seasonal and long-term and population-level changes in fecundity (breeding probability, ovulation rate, embryo survival). We built distributed lag models in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to account for both immediate and time-lagged effects of climate and other environmental drivers, and possible shifts in reproduction over consecutive seasons. We show that rainfall during summer, when rabbits typically breed only rarely, increased breeding probability immediately and with time lags of up to 10 weeks. However, an earlier onset of the yearly breeding period did not result in more overall reproductive output. Better body condition was associated with an earlier onset of breeding and higher embryo survival. Breeding probability in the main breeding season declined with increased breeding activity in the preceding season and only individuals in good body condition were able to breed late in the season. Higher temperatures reduce breeding success across seasons. We conclude that a better understanding of seasonal dynamics and plasticity (and their interplay) in reproduction will provide crucial insights into how lagomorphs are likely to respond and potentially adapt to the influence of future climate and other environmental change.

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Summary Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students’ understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference. PMID:25419016

Technology-enhanced Interactive Teaching of Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities: The Special Case of Bivariate Normal Distribution.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D; Kamino, Scott; Bhakhrani, Bilal; Christou, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Data analysis requires subtle probability reasoning to answer questions like What is the chance of event A occurring, given that event B was observed? This generic question arises in discussions of many intriguing scientific questions such as What is the probability that an adolescent weighs between 120 and 140 pounds given that they are of average height? and What is the probability of (monetary) inflation exceeding 4% and housing price index below 110? To address such problems, learning some applied, theoretical or cross-disciplinary probability concepts is necessary. Teaching such courses can be improved by utilizing modern information technology resources. Students' understanding of multivariate distributions, conditional probabilities, correlation and causation can be significantly strengthened by employing interactive web-based science educational resources. Independent of the type of a probability course (e.g. majors, minors or service probability course, rigorous measure-theoretic, applied or statistics course) student motivation, learning experiences and knowledge retention may be enhanced by blending modern technological tools within the classical conceptual pedagogical models. We have designed, implemented and disseminated a portable open-source web-application for teaching multivariate distributions, marginal, joint and conditional probabilities using the special case of bivariate Normal distribution. A real adolescent height and weight dataset is used to demonstrate the classroom utilization of the new web-application to address problems of parameter estimation, univariate and multivariate inference.

Certification Framework Based on Effective Trapping for Geologic Carbon Sequestration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Bryant, Steven L.; Nicot, Jean-Philippe

2009-01-15

We have developed a certification framework (CF) for certifying the safety and effectiveness of geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites. Safety and effectiveness are achieved if CO{sub 2} and displaced brine have no significant impact on humans, other living things, resources, or the environment. In the CF, we relate effective trapping to CO{sub 2} leakage risk which takes into account both the impact and probability of leakage. We achieve simplicity in the CF by using (1) wells and faults as the potential leakage pathways, (2) compartments to represent environmental resources that may be impacted by leakage, (3) CO{sub 2} fluxes andmore » concentrations in the compartments as proxies for impact to vulnerable entities, (4) broad ranges of storage formation properties to generate a catalog of simulated plume movements, and (5) probabilities of intersection of the CO{sub 2} plume with the conduits and compartments. We demonstrate the approach on a hypothetical GCS site in a Texas Gulf Coast saline formation. Through its generality and flexibility, the CF can contribute to the assessment of risk of CO{sub 2} and brine leakage as part of the certification process for licensing and permitting of GCS sites around the world regardless of the specific regulations in place in any given country.« less

Water resources during drought conditions and postfire water quality in the upper Rio Hondo Basin, Lincoln County, New Mexico, 2010-13

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherson, Lauren R.; Rice, Steven E.

2015-07-16

Changes in climate and increased groundwater and surface-water use are likely to affect the availability of water in the upper Rio Hondo Basin. Increased drought probably will increase the potential for wildfires, which can affect downstream water quality and increase flood potential. Climate-research predicted decreases in winter precipitation may have an adverse effect on the amount of groundwater recharge that occurs in the upper Rio Hondo Basin, given the predominance of winter precipitation recharge as indicated by the stable isotope results. Decreases in surface-water supplies because of persistent drought conditions and reductions in the quality of water because of the effects of wildfire may lead to a larger reliance on groundwater reserves in the upper Rio Hondo Basin. Decreasing water levels because of increasing groundwater withdrawal could reduce base flows in the Rio Bonito and Rio Ruidoso. Well organized and scientifically supported regional water-resources management will be necessary for dealing with the likely scenario of increases in demand coupled with decreases in supply in the upper Rio Hondo Basin.

Application of a New Resource-Constrained Triage Method to Military-Age Victims

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

evidence based, does not consider resources, and has been shown to be scientifically and opera- tionally flawed.’ General P . K. Carlton, former USAF Surgeon...metric that can be used to predict sur- vival probability) P ^ (t) = the survival probability of victims with original SCORE s treated in time period t. n...function coefficients were derived on the design set, and validated on the test set. The logistic function has the form: P ^ - 1/(1 + e"), where P ^ is

Taxonomic classification of world map units in crop producing areas of Argentina and Brazil with representative US soil series and major land resource areas in which they occur

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huckle, H. F. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The most probable current U.S. taxonomic classification of the soils estimated to dominate world soil map units (WSM)) in selected crop producing states of Argentina and Brazil are presented. Representative U.S. soil series the units are given. The map units occurring in each state are listed with areal extent and major U.S. land resource areas in which similar soils most probably occur. Soil series sampled in LARS Technical Report 111579 and major land resource areas in which they occur with corresponding similar WSM units at the taxonomic subgroup levels are given.

Sandstone copper assessment of the Teniz Basin, Kazakhstan: Chapter R in Global mineral resource assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cossette, Pamela M.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Hayes, Timothy S.; Robinson, Gilpin R.; Wallis, John C.; Zientek, Michael L.

2014-01-01

A quantitative mineral resource assessment has been completed that (1) delineates one 49,714 km2 tract permissive for undiscovered, sandstone subtype, sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposits, and (2) provides probabilistic estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits and probable amounts of copper resource contained in those deposits. The permissive tract delineated in this assessment encompasses no previously known sandstone subtype, sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposits. However, this assessment estimates (with 30 percent probability) that a mean of nine undiscovered sandstone subtype copper deposits may be present in the Teniz Basin and could contain a mean total of 8.9 million metric tons of copper and 7,500 metric tons of silver.

Application of remote sensing for fishery resources assessment and monitoring. [Gulf of Mexico

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savastano, K. J. (Principal Investigator)

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The distribution and abundance of white marlin correlated with the chlorophyll, water temperature, and Secchi depth sea truth measurements. Results of correlation analyses for dolphin were inconclusive. Predicition models for white marlin were developed using stepwise multiple regression and discriminant function analysis techniques which demonstrated a potential for increasing the probability of game fishing success. The S190A and B imagery was density sliced/color enhanced with white marlin location superimposed on the image, but no density/white marlin relationship could be established.

CHATTAHOOCHEE ROADLESS AREA, GEORGIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Arthur E.; Welsh, Robert A.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey indicates that the Chattahoochee Roadless Area, Georgia, offers little promise for the occurrence of mineral resources even though gold, mica, sillimanite, soapstone, dunite, chromite, and nickel have been mined nearby, and source rocks for these commodities are present in the roadless area. Granite gneiss, gneiss, schist, and metasandstone in the roadless area are suitable for stone, crushed rock, or aggregate; however, other sources for these materials are available outside the roadless area, closer to present markets. The potential for the occurrence of hydrocarbons (probably gas) beneath the thick regional thrust sheets in this area cannot be adequately evaluated from available data.

MOUNT NAOMI ROADLESS AREA, UTAH AND IDAHO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dover, James H.; Bigsby, Philip R.

1984-01-01

Geologic, geophysical, and geochemical surveys, and an examination of mines and prospects were made in the Mount Naomi Roadless Area, Utah and Idaho. No significant precious-metal, base-metal, other trace-metal, or uranium anomalies are apparent in the geochemical data from the Mount Naomi Roadless Area, and no exploration targets were detected. However, a belt of probable resource potential for stratabound copper, lead, and zinc occurrences exists on the west side of the area in limestone and shale. The possibility that oil and gas concentration lie deeply buried beneath the roadless area cannot be evaluated from available data.

The anticipated transition to adulthood: effects of culture and individual experience on Polish and Finnish adolescents' future orientations.

PubMed

Trempala, J; Malmberg, L E

1998-05-01

The purpose of this study was to describe the effect of a set of individual resources and cultural factors on adolescents' probability estimations of the occurrence of positive future events in three life domains: education, occupation, and family. The hypothesis was that the effects of culture and individual resources are interwoven in the formation process of future orientation. The sample consisted of 352 17-year-old Polish and Finnish girls and boys from vocational and upper secondary schools. The 78-item questionnaire developed by the authors was used to measure different aspects of future orientation (probability, valence, and extension of future events in three life domains) and individual resources (self-esteem, control beliefs, and social knowledge about normatively and the generation gap). Data analysis showed that culture separately affected individual resources and adolescents' expectations. However, the results broadly confirmed the thesis that the culture has a limited effect on adolescents' expectations of the occurrence of future events. Moreover, these data suggested that the influence of sociocultural differences on adolescents' probability estimations is indirect. In the context of the presented data, the authors discuss their model of future orientation.

Distribution and quantitative assessment of world crude oil reserves and resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masters, Charles D.; Root, David H.; Dietzman, William D.

1983-01-01

World Demonstrated Reserves of crude oil are approximately 723 billion barrels of oil (BBO). Cumulative production is 445 BBO and annual production is 20 BBO. Demonstrated Reserves of crude-oil have declined over the past 10 years consistent with discoveries lagging production over the same period. The assessment of Undiscovered Resources shows a 90 percent probability that the amount discoverable lies between 321 and 1,417 BBO, 550 BBO being the most likely value. The most likely value for Ultimate recoverable resources is 1,718 BBO. The distribution of Ultimate Resources of crude oil will remain highly skewed toward the Middle East; no frontier areas that have potentials large enough to significantly affect present distribution are recognized. Rates of discovery have continued to decline over the past 20 years even though exploration activity has increased in recent years. Prudence dictates, therefore, that the low side of the assessment of Undiscovered Resources be responsibly considered and that alternate energy sources be a part of future planning. Extra-heavy oil and bitumen are assessed separately, with Reserves being figured as the annual productive capacity of installed facilities times 25 years. The annual production of extra-heavy oil is about 8 million barrels and of bitumen about 60 million barrels.

Host specialist clownfishes are environmental niche generalists

PubMed Central

Litsios, Glenn; Kostikova, Anna; Salamin, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Why generalist and specialist species coexist in nature is a question that has interested evolutionary biologists for a long time. While the coexistence of specialists and generalists exploiting resources on a single ecological dimension has been theoretically and empirically explored, biological systems with multiple resource dimensions (e.g. trophic, ecological) are less well understood. Yet, such systems may provide an alternative to the classical theory of stable evolutionary coexistence of generalist and specialist species on a single resource dimension. We explore such systems and the potential trade-offs between different resource dimensions in clownfishes. All species of this iconic clade are obligate mutualists with sea anemones yet show interspecific variation in anemone host specificity. Moreover, clownfishes developed variable environmental specialization across their distribution. In this study, we test for the existence of a relationship between host-specificity (number of anemones associated with a clownfish species) and environmental-specificity (expressed as the size of the ecological niche breadth across climatic gradients). We find a negative correlation between host range and environmental specificities in temperature, salinity and pH, probably indicating a trade-off between both types of specialization forcing species to specialize only in a single direction. Trade-offs in a multi-dimensional resource space could be a novel way of explaining the coexistence of generalist and specialists. PMID:25274370

Quantifying the undiscovered geothermal resources of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Colin F.; Reed, Marshall J.; DeAngelo, Jacob; Galanis, S. Peter

2009-01-01

In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released summary results of an assessment of the electric power production potential from the moderate- and high-temperature geothermal resources of the United States (Williams et al., 2008a; USGS Fact Sheet 2008-3082; http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3082). In the assessment, the estimated mean power production potential from undiscovered geothermal resources is 30,033 Megawatts-electric (MWe), more than three times the estimated mean potential from identified geothermal systems: 9057 MWe. The presence of significant undiscovered geothermal resources has major implications for future exploration and development activities by both the government and private industry. Previous reports summarize the results of techniques applied by the USGS and others to map the spatial distribution of undiscovered resources. This paper describes the approach applied in developing estimates of the magnitude of the undiscovered geothermal resource, as well as the manner in which that resource is likely to be distributed among geothermal systems of varying volume and temperature. A number of key issues constrain the overall estimate. One is the degree to which characteristics of the undiscovered resources correspond to those observed among identified geothermal systems. Another is the evaluation of exploration history, including both the spatial distribution of geothermal exploration activities relative to the postulated spatial distribution of undiscovered resources and the probability of successful discoveries from the application of standard geothermal exploration techniques. Also significant are the physical, chemical, and geological constraints on the formation and longevity of geothermal systems. Important observations from this study include the following. (1) Some of the largest identified geothermal systems, such as The Geysers vapor-dominated system in northern California and the diverse geothermal manifestations found in Yellowstone National Park, are unique in North America and highly unlikely to have counterparts with equivalent characteristics among the systems comprising the undiscovered resources. (2) Historical geothermal exploration has been limited in both the effectiveness of techniques employed and spatial coverage, since most exploration has targeted areas associated with surface thermal manifestations in the most easily accessible lands. (3) As noted by other investigators, in general, the hottest and largest geothermal systems are those with heat sources arising from recent magmatic activity. Consequently, a larger fraction of the undiscovered resource is associated with those areas favorable to the formation of this type of geothermal system, including some relatively remote areas, such as the Aleutian volcanic arc in Alaska.

Estimating the Exceedance Probability of the Reservoir Inflow Based on the Long-Term Weather Outlooks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Q. Z.; Hsu, S. Y.; Li, M. H.

2016-12-01

The long-term streamflow prediction is important not only to estimate water-storage of a reservoir but also to the surface water intakes, which supply people's livelihood, agriculture, and industry. Climatology forecasts of streamflow have been traditionally used for calculating the exceedance probability curve of streamflow and water resource management. In this study, we proposed a stochastic approach to predict the exceedance probability curve of long-term streamflow with the seasonal weather outlook from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Taiwan. The approach incorporates a statistical downscale weather generator and a catchment-scale hydrological model to convert the monthly outlook into daily rainfall and temperature series and to simulate the streamflow based on the outlook information. Moreover, we applied Bayes' theorem to derive a method for calculating the exceedance probability curve of the reservoir inflow based on the seasonal weather outlook and its imperfection. The results show that our approach can give the exceedance probability curves reflecting the three-month weather outlook and its accuracy. We also show how the improvement of the weather outlook affects the predicted exceedance probability curves of the streamflow. Our approach should be useful for the seasonal planning and management of water resource and their risk assessment.

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River drainage basin, southeast Minnesota, and the St. Louis River drainage basin, northeast Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Erik A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Jacobsen, Katrin E.

2017-12-27

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River and St. Louis River drainage basins were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, to illustrate relative and cumulative streamflow distributions. The Cannon River was selected to provide baseline data to assess the effects of potential surficial sand mining, and the St. Louis River was selected to determine the effects of ongoing Mesabi Iron Range mining. Each drainage basin (Cannon, St. Louis) was subdivided into nested drainage basins: the Cannon River was subdivided into 152 nested drainage basins, and the St. Louis River was subdivided into 353 nested drainage basins. For each smaller drainage basin, the estimated volumes of groundwater discharge (as base flow) and surface runoff flowing into all surface-water features were displayed under the following conditions: (1) extreme low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.95; (2) low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.90; (3) a median condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.50; and (4) a high-flow condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.02.Streamflow distribution maps were developed using flow-duration curve exceedance-probability quantiles in conjunction with Soil-Water-Balance model outputs; both the flow-duration curve and Soil-Water-Balance models were built upon previously published U.S. Geological Survey reports. The selected streamflow distribution maps provide a proactive water management tool for State cooperators by illustrating flow rates during a range of hydraulic conditions. Furthermore, after the nested drainage basins are highlighted in terms of surface-water flows, the streamflows can be evaluated in the context of meeting specific ecological flows under different flow regimes and potentially assist with decisions regarding groundwater and surface-water appropriations. Presented streamflow distribution maps are foundational work intended to support the development of additional streamflow distribution maps that include statistical constraints on the selected flow conditions.

Mapping Irrigated Areas in the Tunisian Semi-Arid Context with Landsat Thermal and VNIR Data Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivalland, Vincent; Drissi, Hsan; Simonneaux, Vincent; Tardy, Benjamin; Boulet, Gilles

2016-04-01

Our study area is the Merguellil semi-arid irrigated plain in Tunisia, where the water resource management is an important stake for governmental institutions, farmer communities and more generally for the environment. Indeed, groundwater abstraction for irrigation is the primary cause of aquifer depletion. Moreover, unregistered pumping practices are widespread and very difficult to survey by authorities. Thus, the identification of areas actually irrigated in the whole plain is of major interest. In order to map the irrigated areas, we tried out a methodology based on the use of Landsat 7 and 8 Land Surface Temperature (LST) data issued from atmospherically corrected thermal band using the LANDARTs Tool jointly with the NDVI vegetation indices obtained from visible ane near infrared (VNIR) bands. For each Landsat acquisition during the years 2012 to 2014, we computed a probability of irrigation based on the location of the pixel in the NDVI - LST space. Basically for a given NDVI value, the cooler the pixel the higher its probability to be irrigated is. For each date, pixels were classified in seven bins of irrigation probability ranges. Pixel probabilities for each date were then summed over the study period resulting in a probability map of irrigation. Comparison with ground data shows a consistent identification of irrigated plots and supports the potential operational interest of the method. However, results were hampered by the low Landsat LST data availability due to clouds and the inadequate revisit frequency of the sensor.

Sexual health resources at Minnesota colleges: associations with students' sexual health behaviors.

PubMed

Eisenberg, Marla E; Hannan, Peter J; Lust, Katherine A; Lechner, Kate E; Garcia, Carolyn; Frerich, Ellen A

2013-09-01

Sexual risk behaviors are common among college students, and research examining the environmental context of these behaviors is important for prevention. The presence of college sexual health resources is a potentially important part of that context. In a 2010-2011 survey, 6,318 undergraduates from 28 two- and four-year Minnesota college campuses provided data on their sexual health behaviors. In addition, a specially designed inventory was used to assess the sexual health resources available on each campus. Multilevel regression was used to test the associations of four types of resources with students' condom use, birth control use, STD or HIV testing, and unplanned pregnancy. In models that controlled for students' personal and demographic characteristics, the higher the level of sexual health resources at a college, the lower the likelihood that students had had intercourse without birth control, intercourse without a condom and involvement in unplanned pregnancy. For example, students attending colleges with the maximum number of general clinic resources had a lower predicted probability of reporting nonuse of reliable birth control at last intercourse than students attending colleges with no resources (7% vs. 14%). After college characteristics were adjusted for, most measures of resources remained significant, although associations were reduced; two measures became significant in unexpected directions. Colleges' provision of sexual health resources may be associated with students' sexual health behaviors. Research using quasi-experimental or experimental designs is needed to assess the mechanisms underlying these associations; such work could lead to interventions that might help reduce students' risky behaviors. Copyright © 2013 by the Guttmacher Institute.

STRAWBERRY CRATER ROADLESS AREAS, ARIZONA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolfe, Edward W.; Light, Thomas D.

1984-01-01

The results of a mineral survey conducted in the Strawberry Crater Roadless Areas, Arizona, indicate little promise for the occurrence of metallic mineral or fossil fuel resources in the area. The area contains deposits of cinder, useful for the production of aggregate block, and for deposits of decorative stone; however, similar deposits occur in great abundance throughout the San Francisco volcanic field outside the roadless areas. There is a possibility that the Strawberry Crater Roadless Areas may overlie part of a crustal magma chamber or still warm pluton related to the San Francisco Mountain stratovolcano or to basaltic vents of late Pleistocene or Holocene age. Such a magma chamber or pluton beneath the Strawberry Crater Roadless Areas might be an energy source from which a hot-, dry-rock geothermal energy system could be developed, and a probable geothermal resource potential is therefore assigned to these areas. 9 refs.

Optimal directed searches for continuous gravitational waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ming, Jing; Krishnan, Badri; Papa, Maria Alessandra; Aulbert, Carsten; Fehrmann, Henning

2016-03-01

Wide parameter space searches for long-lived continuous gravitational wave signals are computationally limited. It is therefore critically important that the available computational resources are used rationally. In this paper we consider directed searches, i.e., targets for which the sky position is known accurately but the frequency and spin-down parameters are completely unknown. Given a list of such potential astrophysical targets, we therefore need to prioritize. On which target(s) should we spend scarce computing resources? What parameter space region in frequency and spin-down should we search through? Finally, what is the optimal search setup that we should use? In this paper we present a general framework that allows us to solve all three of these problems. This framework is based on maximizing the probability of making a detection subject to a constraint on the maximum available computational cost. We illustrate the method for a simplified problem.

Strawberry Crater Roadless Areas, Arizona

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolfe, E.W.; Light, T.D.

1984-01-01

The results of a mineral survey conducted in 1980 in the Strawberry Crater Roadless Areas, Arizona, indicate little promise for the occurrence of metallic mineral or fossil fuel resources in the area. The area contains deposits of cinder, useful for the production of aggregate block, and for deposits of decorative stone; however, similar deposits occur in great abundance throughout the San Francisco volcanic field outside the roadless areas. There is a possibility that the Strawberry Crater Roadless Areas may overlie part of a crustal magma chamber or still warm pluton related to the San Francisco Mountain stratovolcano or to basalticmore » vents of late Pleistocene or Holocene age. Such a magma chamber or pluton beneath the Strawberry Crater Roadless Areas might be an energy source from which a hot-, dry-rock geothermal energy system could be developed, and a probable geothermal resource potential is therefore assigned to these areas.« less

An Ecological Paradox: The African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus) Is Not Attracted to Water Points When Water Is Scarce in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Ndaimani, Henry; Tagwireyi, Paradzayi; Sebele, Lovelater; Madzikanda, Hillary

2016-01-01

In dry biomes, spatio-temporal variation in surface water resource stocks is pervasive, with unknown effects on the ranging behaviour of large predators. This study assessed the effect of spatial variation in surface water resources on the ranging behaviour of the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). We analyzed data for 1992 (dry year with 20 water points) and 2000 (wet year with 30 water points) against presence-only data for five packs of L. pictus in a part of Hwange National Park and adjacent smallholder communal farming areas in western Zimbabwe. Modelling the potential habitat for L. pictus using Maxent with distance from water points (Dw) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as predictor variables was successful for 2000 (AUC = 0.793) but not successful for 1992 (AUC = 0.423), with L. pictus probability of occurrence near water points being more for year 2000 than for year 1992. The predicted L. pictus range was wider in 1992 (~13888.1 km2) than in 2000 (~958.4 km2) (Test of Proportions, χ2 = 124.52, df = 1, P = 0.00). Using the 2nd order Multitype Nearest Neighbour Distance Function (Gcross), we also observed significant attraction between L. pictus and water points within only ~1km radius for 1992 but up to ~8km radius for 2000. Our study reinforced the notion that surface water resources attract wild dogs in the savannahs but paradoxically less so when water resources are scarce. In particular, our study furthers current understanding of the effects of changing water availability regimes on the endangered L. pictus, providing evidence that the endangered predator's home range encroaches into potential ecological traps (i.e., smallholder communal farming areas) when water resources are scarce.

Chapter 9: Oil and gas resource potential north of the Arctic Circle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gautier, D.L.; Bird, K.J.; Charpentier, R.R.; Grantz, A.; Houseknecht, D.W.; Klett, T.R.; Moore, Thomas E.; Pitman, Janet K.; Schenk, C.J.; Schuenemeyer, J.H.; Sorensen, K.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.; Valin, Z.C.; Wandrey, C.J.

2011-01-01

The US Geological Survey recently assessed the potential for undiscovered conventional petroleumin the Arctic. Using a new map compilation of sedimentary elements, the area north of the Arctic Circle was subdivided into 70 assessment units, 48 of which were quantitatively assessed. The Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) was a geologically based, probabilistic study that relied mainly on burial history analysis and analogue modelling to estimate sizes and numbers of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations. The results of the CARA suggest the Arctic is gas-prone with an estimated 770-2990 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered conventional natural gas, most of which is in Russian territory. On an energy-equivalent basis, the quantity of natural gas ismore than three times the quantity of oil and the largest undiscovered gas eld is expected to be about 10 times the size of the largest undiscovered oil eld. In addition to gas, the gas accumulationsmay contain an estimated 39 billion barrels of liquids. The South Kara Sea is themost prospective gas assessment unit, but giant gas elds containingmore than 6 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas are possible at a 50%chance in 10 assessment units. Sixty per cent of the estimated undiscovered oil resource is in just six assessment units, of which the Alaska Platform, with 31%of the resource, is the most prospective. Overall, the Arctic is estimated to contain between 44 and 157 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Billion barrel oil elds are possible at a 50%chance in seven assessment units.Undiscovered oil resources could be signicant to the Arctic nations, but are probably not sufcient to shift the world oil balance away from the Middle East. ?? 2011 The Geological Society of London.

Integrated Water Resources Planning and Management in Arid/Semi-arid Regions: Data, Modeling, and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, H.; Liu, Y.; Wagener, T.; Durcik, M.; Duffy, C.; Springer, E.

2005-12-01

Water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. As the demand for water continues to increase due to economic and population growth, planning and management of available water resources under climate uncertainties becomes increasingly critical in order to achieve basin-scale water sustainability (i.e., to ensure a long-term balance between supply and demand of water).The tremendous complexity of the interactions between the natural hydrologic system and the human environment means that modeling is the only available mechanism for properly integrating new knowledge into the decision-making process. Basin-scale integrated models have the potential to allow us to study the feedback processes between the physical and human systems (including institutional, engineering, and behavioral components); and an integrated assessment of the potential second- and higher-order effects of political and management decisions can aid in the selection of a rational water-resources policy. Data and information, especially hydrological and water-use data, are critical to the integrated modeling and assessment for water resources management of any region. To this end we are in the process of developing a multi-resolution integrated modeling and assessment framework for the south-western USA, which can be used to generate simulations of the probable effects of human actions while taking into account the uncertainties brought about by future climatic variability and change. Data are being collected (including the development of a hydro-geospatial database) and used in support of the modeling and assessment activities. This paper will present a blueprint of the modeling framework, describe achievements so far and discuss the science questions which still require answers with a particular emphasis on issues related to dry regions.

Correlation signatures of wet soils and snows. [algorithm development and computer programming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, M. R.

1972-01-01

Interpretation, analysis, and development of algorithms have provided the necessary computational programming tools for soil data processing, data handling and analysis. Algorithms that have been developed thus far, are adequate and have been proven successful for several preliminary and fundamental applications such as software interfacing capabilities, probability distributions, grey level print plotting, contour plotting, isometric data displays, joint probability distributions, boundary mapping, channel registration and ground scene classification. A description of an Earth Resources Flight Data Processor, (ERFDP), which handles and processes earth resources data under a users control is provided.

Probable effects on ground-water resources from construction of the proposed Grand River cut-off channel west of Lansing, Mich.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferris, John G.

1950-01-01

This memorandum summarize information brought out in correspondence between the office of the District Engineer of the Milwaukee District, U.S. Corps of Engineers, and the District Office of the Ground Water Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey at Lansing, Mich., concerning the probable effects on the ground-water resources of the Lansing area from the construction of a proposed flood-water cut-off channel for the Grand River to extend from Millett to Delta Mills, in Eaton County, Mich.

Resource planning and scheduling of payload for satellite with particle swarm optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jian; Wang, Cheng

2007-11-01

The resource planning and scheduling technology of payload is a key technology to realize an automated control for earth observing satellite with limited resources on satellite, which is implemented to arrange the works states of various payloads to carry out missions by optimizing the scheme of the resources. The scheduling task is a difficult constraint optimization problem with various and mutative requests and constraints. Based on the analysis of the satellite's functions and the payload's resource constraints, a proactive planning and scheduling strategy based on the availability of consumable and replenishable resources in time-order is introduced along with dividing the planning and scheduling period to several pieces. A particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed to address the problem with an adaptive mutation operator selection, where the swarm is divided into groups with different probabilities to employ various mutation operators viz., differential evolution, Gaussian and random mutation operators. The probabilities are adjusted adaptively by comparing the effectiveness of the groups to select a proper operator. The simulation results have shown the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

Sediments, structural framework, petroleum potential, environmental conditions, and operational considerations of the United States North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1975-01-01

The area designated for possible oil and gas lease sale as modified from BLM memorandum 3310 #42 (722) and referred to therein as the North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) contains about 58,300 sq km of shelf beneath water depths of less than 200 m and lies chiefly within the Georges Bank basin. The oldest sediments drilled or dredged on the bordering Continental Slope are sandstone, clay, and silt of Upper Cretaceous age. In Upper Cretaceous exposures, on Marthas Vineyard and nearby New England islands, the predominant lithology appears to be clay. About 125 km northeast of the eastern tip of Georges Bank, the Shell B-93 well penetrated clays and silts of Upper and Lower Cretaceous age above dense Jurassic carbonate rocks which overlie a basement of lower Paleozoic slate, schist, quartzite, and granite. Structurally, the Georges Bank basin is a westerly trending trough which opens to the west-southwest. Post-Paleozoic sediments are more than 8 km thick in parts of the basin. Major structural features appear to be directly related to basement structures. Local anticlines, probably caused by differential compaction over basement flexures and horst blocks or by later uplift along basement faults are reflected principally in Lower Cretaceous and older sediments, though some of these features continue upward to within 0.7 of a second (about 650 m) of the seafloor. Tertiary deposits in the Georges Bank basin are probably up to a kilometre thick and are made up of poorly consolidated sand, silt, and clay. The Cretaceous section is inferred to be up to 3.5 km thick and to be mainly clastics -- shale, siltstone, calcareous shale, changing to limestone in the lowest part of the system. Jurassic rocks in the deepest part of the basin appear to be about 3.6 to 4.0 km thick and probably consist mainly of dense carbonates. Potential source rocks in the Georges Bank basin may include organic-rich Cretaceous shale and carbonaceous Jurassic limestone. By analogy with the Scotian Shelf, Cretaceous sandstones are considered to be potential reservoir rocks. Local zones of porous dolomite are believed to be present in carbonate rocks of Jurassic age and should not be overlooked as potential reservoirs. Structural highs related to draping and differential compaction over basement blocks could be important potential petroleum traps. Additional traps may include reef structures near the shelf edge, updip pinchouts, and stratigraphic traps in both clastic and carbonate sediment. A statistical mean for the undiscovered recoverable petroleum resources is calculated to be 0.9 billion barrels of oil and 4.2 trillion cubic feet of gas. At the 5 percent probability level (1 in 20 chance) the undiscovered recoverable petroleum resources are calculated to be 2.4 billion barrels of oil and 12.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. These undiscovered recoverable petroleum resources are those quantities of oil and gas that may be reasonably expected to exist in favorable settings, but which have not yet been identified by drilling. Such estimates, therefore, carry a high degree of uncertainty. Environmental studies of Georges Bank indicated a low-moderate risk from petroleum development. However, the risk estimate is based on very limited data. Drift bottle returns used to infer oil spill trajectories show about a 2% overall recovery rate. Meteorologic data comes mainly from nearby land areas and from ships attempting to avoid storms. Seismicity on Georges Bank is low. This may reflect, in large part, the difficulty of land-based stations in recording earthquakes far from the coast. Direct data on the engineering properties of shallow buried sediment comes mainly from two Texas Tower surveys of limited areas on Georges Shoal and Nantucket Shoals made in the early 1950's. The 17 holes (most less than 30 m deep) reveal some silty layers below loose sand and much lateral variability in sediment type over short distances. The technology for exploration at the required water depths (20 m - 200 m) is available. Mobil drilling units are in great demand around the world and will have to be brought in from other areas along with skilled manpower. Our highest estimates indicate 50 platforms, 800 producing wells, 1,100 km of pipeline, and 5 onshore terminals may be needed. The time frame for production, using our high estimates (5% probability) for the undiscovered recoverable resources, could include 4-5 years for significant development, 6-7 years until production commences, and 18 years until peak production.

Geophysical Mapping of the South Carolina Offshore for Wind Energy Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brantley, D.; Knapp, C. C.; Battista, B.; Stone, J.

2017-12-01

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has identified potential Wind Energy Areas (WEA's) on the continental shelf of South Carolina characterized by good wind resource potential and minimal environmental and societal use conflicts based on existing regional data sets. A multi-sensor geophysical survey has been initiated to provide a more thorough determination of the shallow geologic framework and bottom habitat and cultural resources potential to further refine future wind farm siting. The most recent phase of deposition (Pleistocene; <1.8 Mya) took place during repeated, large-scale (120 m) sea-level changes which resulted in extensive exposure and inundation of the shelf. The shallow subsurface of the near-shore environment under consideration for wind energy development requires thorough analysis of seabed bottom type, seafloor roughness and geomorphology, potential sites of cultural resources and features such as active and inactive faults, filled channels, and potential slope instabilities which would have a considerable potential impact on sitting installations for wind energy. The study is focused on the inner shelf from 18 to 26 km offshore of North Myrtle Beach, SC. The collaborative effort is generating multibeam, and side scan sonar, CHIRP sub-bottom and magnetometer data. Across the region a thin veneer of sediments overlies indurated Tertiary deposits. The Tertiary geologic section is locally scoured and influenced small channels and probable karstification and enduring fluid exchange across the sea floor which has been previously identified in the region. The sea floor exhibits large-scale (100s of meters) low relief shore-perpendicular bedforms similar to those found within the shoreface and innermost shelf though the SC Coastal Erosion Study. Post-processed bathymetry shows a radial distribution of coast-perpendicular features that transition between two coastal processes: 1) there is the sediment distribution caused by the longshore currents and wave energy, and 2) there are areas related to the coastal inlets that disrupt the primary sedimentation patterns and impose patterns of terrestrial sedimentation such as those from rivers, deltas and estuaries.

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.

PubMed

Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-12-15

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

PubMed Central

Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-01-01

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988

Resilience through adaptation

PubMed Central

van Voorn, George A. K.; Ligtenberg, Arend; Molenaar, Jaap

2017-01-01

Adaptation of agents through learning or evolution is an important component of the resilience of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Without adaptation, the flexibility of such systems to cope with outside pressures would be much lower. To study the capabilities of CAS to adapt, social simulations with agent-based models (ABMs) provide a helpful tool. However, the value of ABMs for studying adaptation depends on the availability of methodologies for sensitivity analysis that can quantify resilience and adaptation in ABMs. In this paper we propose a sensitivity analysis methodology that is based on comparing time-dependent probability density functions of output of ABMs with and without agent adaptation. The differences between the probability density functions are quantified by the so-called earth-mover’s distance. We use this sensitivity analysis methodology to quantify the probability of occurrence of critical transitions and other long-term effects of agent adaptation. To test the potential of this new approach, it is used to analyse the resilience of an ABM of adaptive agents competing for a common-pool resource. Adaptation is shown to contribute positively to the resilience of this ABM. If adaptation proceeds sufficiently fast, it may delay or avert the collapse of this system. PMID:28196372

Resilience through adaptation.

PubMed

Ten Broeke, Guus A; van Voorn, George A K; Ligtenberg, Arend; Molenaar, Jaap

2017-01-01

Adaptation of agents through learning or evolution is an important component of the resilience of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Without adaptation, the flexibility of such systems to cope with outside pressures would be much lower. To study the capabilities of CAS to adapt, social simulations with agent-based models (ABMs) provide a helpful tool. However, the value of ABMs for studying adaptation depends on the availability of methodologies for sensitivity analysis that can quantify resilience and adaptation in ABMs. In this paper we propose a sensitivity analysis methodology that is based on comparing time-dependent probability density functions of output of ABMs with and without agent adaptation. The differences between the probability density functions are quantified by the so-called earth-mover's distance. We use this sensitivity analysis methodology to quantify the probability of occurrence of critical transitions and other long-term effects of agent adaptation. To test the potential of this new approach, it is used to analyse the resilience of an ABM of adaptive agents competing for a common-pool resource. Adaptation is shown to contribute positively to the resilience of this ABM. If adaptation proceeds sufficiently fast, it may delay or avert the collapse of this system.

Kullback-Leibler information in resolving natural resource conflicts when definitive data exist

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.

2001-01-01

Conflicts often arise in the management of natural resources. Often they result from differing perceptions, varying interpretations of the law, and self-interests among stakeholder groups (for example, the values and perceptions about spotted owls and forest management differ markedly among environmental groups, government regulatory agencies, and timber industries). We extend the conceptual approach to conflict resolution of Anderson et al. (1999) by using information-theoretic methods to provide quantitative evidence for differing stakeholder positions. Importantly, we assume that relevant empirical data exist that are central to the potential resolution of the conflict. We present a hypothetical example involving an experiment to assess potential effects of a chemical on monthly survival probabilities of the hen clam (Spisula solidissima). The conflict centers on 3 stakeholder positions: 1) no effect, 2) an acute effect, and 3) an acute and chronic effect of the chemical treatment. Such data were given to 18 analytical teams to make independent analyses and provide the relative evidence for each of 3 stakeholder positions in the conflict. The empirical evidence strongly supports only one of the 3 positions in the conflict: the application of the chemical causes acute and chronic effects on monthly survival, following treatment. Formal inference from all the stakeholder positions is provided for the 2 key parameters underlying the hen clam controversy. The estimates of these parameters were essentially unbiased (the relative bias for the control and treatment group's survival probability was -0.857% and 1.400%, respectively) and precise (coefficients of variation were 0.576% and 2.761%, respectively). The advantages of making formal inference from all the models, rather than drawing conclusions from only the estimated best model, is illustrated. Finally, we contrast information-theoretic and Bayesian approaches in terms of how positions in the controversy enter the formal analysis.

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Libya, Algeria and Egypt: crude oil potential from known deposits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dietzman, W.D.; Rafidi, N.R.; Ross, T.A.

1982-04-01

An analysis is presented of the discovered crude oil resources, reserves, and estimated annual production from known fields of the Republics of Libya, Algeria, and Egypt. Proved reserves are defined as the remaining producible oil as of a specified date under operating practice in effect at that time and include estimated recoverable oil in undrilled portions of a given structure or structures. Also included in the proved reserve category are the estimated indicated additional volumes of recoverable oil from the entire oil reservoir where fluid injection programs have been started in a portion, or portions, of the reservoir. The indicatedmore » additional reserves (probable reserves) reported herein are the volumes of crude oil that might be obtained with the installation of secondary recovery or pressure maintenance operations in reservoirs where none have been previously installed. The sum of cumulative production, proved reserves, and probable reserves is defined as the ultimate oil recovery from known deposits; and resources are defined as the original oil in place (OOIP). An assessment was made of the availability of crude oil under three assumed sustained production rates for each country; an assessment was also made of each country's capability of sustaining production at, or near, the 1980 rates assuming different limiting reserve to production ratios. Also included is an estimate of the potential maximum producing capability from known deposits that might be obtained from known accumulations under certain assumptions, using a simple time series approach. The theoretical maximum oil production capability from known fields at any time is the maximum deliverability rate assuming there are no equipment, investment, market, or political constraints.« less

Regional frequency analysis to asses wind resource spatial and temporal variations in Washington State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, M.; Demissie, D.

2013-12-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy's annual wind technologies market report, the wind power capacity in the country grew from 2.5 gigawatts in early 2000 to 60 gigawatts in 2012, making it one of the largest new sources of electric capacity additions in the U.S. in recent years. With over 2.8 gigawatts of current capacity (eighth largest in the nation), Washington State plays a significant role in this rapidly increasing energy resource. To further expand and/or optimize these capacities, assessment of wind resource and its spatial and temporal variations are important. However, since at-site frequency analysis using meteorological data is not adequate for extending wind frequency to locations with no data, longer return period, and heterogeneous topography and surface, a regional frequency analysis based on L-moment method is adopted in this study to estimate regional wind speed patterns and return periods in Washington State using hourly mean wind speed data from 1979 - 2010. The analysis applies the k-means, hierarchical and self-organizing map clustering techniques to explore potential clusters or regions; statistical tests are then applied to identify homogeneous regions and appropriate probability distribution models. The result from the analysis is expected to provide essential knowledge about the areas with potential capacity of constructing wind power plants, which can also be readily extended to assist decisions on their daily operations.

Geothermal energy: opportunities for California commerce. Phase I report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Longyear, A.B.

1981-12-01

The potential geothermal direct-use energy market and its application to projects in California are assessed. Project identification effort is to be focused on those that have the highest probability for near-term successful commercial operations. Near-term herein means 2 to 5 years for project implementation. Phase I has been focused on defining and assessing: (1) the geothermal direct-use resources that are suitable for near-term utilization; and (2) the generic applications (municipal heating districts, horticultural greenhouse firms, laundries, etc.) that are suitable for near-term projects. Five economic development regions in the state, containing recognized geothermal direct-use resources, have been defined. Thirty-eight directmore » use resources have been evaluated in these regions. After assessment against pre-selected criteria, twenty-seven have been rated with a priority of I, II or III, thereby qualifying them for further marketing effort. The five areas with a priority of I are summarized. These areas have no perceived impediments to near-term development. Twenty-nine generic categories of applications were assessed against previously selected criteria to determine their near term potential for direct use of geothermal fluids. Some twenty industry, commercial and institutional application categories were rated with a priority of I, II or III and warrant further marketing efforts. The seven categories with a priority of I are listed. These categories were found to have the least impediments to near-term application projects.« less

Community-specific hydraulic conductance potential of soil water decomposed for two Alpine grasslands by small-scale lysimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frenck, Georg; Leitinger, Georg; Obojes, Nikolaus; Hofmann, Magdalena; Newesely, Christian; Deutschmann, Mario; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich

2018-02-01

For central Europe in addition to rising temperatures an increasing variability in precipitation is predicted. This will increase the probability of drought periods in the Alps, where water supply has been sufficient in most areas so far. For Alpine grasslands, community-specific imprints on drought responses are poorly analyzed so far due to the sufficient natural water supply. In a replicated mesocosm experiment we compared evapotranspiration (ET) and biomass productivity of two differently drought-adapted Alpine grassland communities during two artificial drought periods divided by extreme precipitation events using high-precision small lysimeters. The drought-adapted vegetation type showed a high potential to utilize even scarce water resources. This is combined with a low potential to translate atmospheric deficits into higher water conductance and a lower biomass production as those measured for the non-drought-adapted type. The non-drought-adapted type, in contrast, showed high water conductance potential and a strong increase in ET rates when environmental conditions became less constraining. With high rates even at dry conditions, this community appears not to be optimized to save water and might experience drought effects earlier and probably more strongly. As a result, the water use efficiency of the drought-adapted plant community is with 2.6 gDW kg-1 of water much higher than that of the non-drought-adapted plant community (0.16 gDW kg-1). In summary, the vegetation's reaction to two covarying gradients of potential evapotranspiration and soil water content revealed a clear difference in vegetation development and between water-saving and water-spending strategies regarding evapotranspiration.

Phosphate occurrence and potential in the region of Afghanistan, including parts of China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orris, Greta J.; Dunlap, Pamela; Wallis, John; Wynn, Jeff

2015-01-01

As part of a larger study, the U.S. Geological Survey undertook a study to identify the potential for phosphate deposits in Afghanistan. As part of this study, a geographic information system was constructed containing a database of phosphate occurrences in Afghanistan and adjacent countries, and a database of potential host lithologies compiled from 1:1,000,000 scale maps. Within Afghanistan, a handful of known occurrences and reports indicate the presence of phosphate in Permian, Cretaceous, and Paleogene sediments and in carbonatite. With the exception of the Khanneshin carbonatite, very little is known about these occurrences. In the countries surrounding Afghanistan, economic phosphate is known to occur in Cambrian, Devonian, and Paleogene sediments and in Kiruna-type Fe-apatite deposits. Many of the host units may extend into Afghanistan or equivalent units may be present. Although the possibility of economic phosphate deposits exist for Afghanistan, the need for detailed exploration for phosphate, the remoteness of some locations, and the probability that a deposit would not be exposed at the surface mean that one or more deposits are not likely to be identified in the near future. Even if a phosphate-bearing deposit is identified in Afghanistan, it is not clear if the probable size, thickness, and grade ranges would allow economic development of the hypothesized resource.

Effect of passive acoustic sampling methodology on detecting bats after declines from white nose syndrome

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coleman, Laci S.; Ford, W. Mark; Dobony, Christopher A.; Britzke, Eric R.

2014-01-01

Concomitant with the emergence and spread of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and precipitous decline of many bat species in North America, natural resource managers need modified and/or new techniques for bat inventory and monitoring that provide robust occupancy estimates. We used Anabat acoustic detectors to determine the most efficient passive acoustic sampling design for optimizing detection probabilities of multiple bat species in a WNS-impacted environment in New York, USA. Our sampling protocol included: six acoustic stations deployed for the entire duration of monitoring as well as a 4 x 4 grid and five transects of 5-10 acoustic units that were deployed for 6-8 night sample durations surveyed during the summers of 2011-2012. We used Program PRESENCE to determine detection probability and site occupancy estimates. Overall, the grid produced the highest detection probabilities for most species because it contained the most detectors and intercepted the greatest spatial area. However, big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) and species not impacted by WNS were detected easily regardless of sampling array. Endangered Indiana (Myotis sodalis) and little brown (Myotis lucifugus) and tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) showed declines in detection probabilities over our study, potentially indicative of continued WNS-associated declines. Identification of species presence through efficient methodologies is vital for future conservation efforts as bat populations decline further due to WNS and other factors.   

A comparison of two modeling approaches for evaluating wildlife--habitat relationships

Treesearch

Ryan A. Long; Jonathan D. Muir; Janet L. Rachlow; John G. Kie

2009-01-01

Studies of resource selection form the basis for much of our understanding of wildlife habitat requirements, and resource selection functions (RSFs), which predict relative probability of use, have been proposed as a unifying concept for analysis and interpretation of wildlife habitat data. Logistic regression that contrasts used and available or unused resource units...

Assessing risk to birds from industrial wind energy development via paired resource selection nodels

Treesearch

Tricia A. Miller; Robert P. Brooks; Michael Lanzone; David Brandes; Jeff Cooper; Kieran O' malley; Charles Maisonneuve; Junior Tremblay; Adam Duerr; Todd Katzner

2014-01-01

When wildlife habitat overlaps with industrial development animals may be harmed. Because wildlife and people select resources to maximize biological fitness and economic return, respectively, we estimated risk, the probability of eagles encountering and being affected by turbines, by overlaying models of resource selection for each entity. This conceptual framework...

Availability and chemistry of ground water on the Bruneau Plateau and adjacent eastern plain in Twin Falls County, south-central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moffatt, R.L.; Jones, M.L.

1984-01-01

The Bruneau plateau in south-central Idaho consists of about 889 ,600 acres of potentially irrigable land. About 112,200 of these acres have been developed for agriculture; 11,200 acres are irrigated with ground water, and the remaining acreage is irrigated with water from the Snake and Bruneau rivers and Salmon Falls Creek. On the basis of present usage, about 158,000 acre-feet of water per year are needed to develop an additional 63,000 acres. About 438,000 acre-feet per year are needed to irrigate existing and newly developed lands in dry years when streamflow in the Snake River at Milner Dam is inadequate to meet appropriated needs. Pumping lifts of about 400-600 feet and low well yields on the Bruneau plateau probably preclude large-scale irrigation development solely from local ground-water resources. However, supplemental sources of irrigation water are available from a perched-water aquifer, a thermal aquifer, and the regional aquifer adjacent to the plateau. About 100,000-115,000 acre-feet per year of water probably could be withdrawn from the perched and regional aquifers and conveyed to the plateau without serious impact on local ground-water resources. The amount of water that could be safely withdrawn from the thermal aquifer was not determined. (USGS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carson, K.S.

The presence of overpopulation or unsustainable population growth may place pressure on the food and water supplies of countries in sensitive areas of the world. Severe air or water pollution may place additional pressure on these resources. These pressures may generate both internal and international conflict in these areas as nations struggle to provide for their citizens. Such conflicts may result in United States intervention, either unilaterally, or through the United Nations. Therefore, it is in the interests of the United States to identify potential areas of conflict in order to properly train and allocate forces. The purpose of thismore » research is to forecast the probability of conflict in a nation as a function of it s environmental conditions. Probit, logit and ordered probit models are employed to forecast the probability of a given level of conflict. Data from 95 countries are used to estimate the models. Probability forecasts are generated for these 95 nations. Out-of sample forecasts are generated for an additional 22 nations. These probabilities are then used to rank nations from highest probability of conflict to lowest. The results indicate that the dependence of a nation`s economy on agriculture, the rate of deforestation, and the population density are important variables in forecasting the probability and level of conflict. These results indicate that environmental variables do play a role in generating or exacerbating conflict. It is unclear that the United States military has any direct role in mitigating the environmental conditions that may generate conflict. A more important role for the military is to aid in data gathering to generate better forecasts so that the troops are adequntely prepared when conflicts arises.« less

Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

PubMed

Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

2018-06-05

The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy.

PubMed

Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Alcasena, Fermin J; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Spano, Donatella

2015-01-01

In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September. Peak burn probability and flame length were observed in late July. We found that patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity were mainly related to spatiotemporal variation in ignition locations, fuel moisture, and wind vectors. Our modeling approach allowed consideration of historical patterns of winds, ignition locations, and live and dead fuel moisture on fire exposure factors. The methodology proposed can be useful for analyzing potential wildfire risk and effects at landscape scale, evaluating historical changes and future trends in wildfire exposure, as well as for addressing and informing fuel management and risk mitigation issues.

Information Entropy Analysis of the H1N1 Genetic Code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martwick, Andy

2010-03-01

During the current H1N1 pandemic, viral samples are being obtained from large numbers of infected people world-wide and are being sequenced on the NCBI Influenza Virus Resource Database. The information entropy of the sequences was computed from the probability of occurrence of each nucleotide base at every position of each set of sequences using Shannon's definition of information entropy, [ H=∑bpb,2( 1pb ) ] where H is the observed information entropy at each nucleotide position and pb is the probability of the base pair of the nucleotides A, C, G, U. Information entropy of the current H1N1 pandemic is compared to reference human and swine H1N1 entropy. As expected, the current H1N1 entropy is in a low entropy state and has a very large mutation potential. Using the entropy method in mature genes we can identify low entropy regions of nucleotides that generally correlate to critical protein function.

The Effects of Women’s Education on Maternal Health: Evidence from Peru

PubMed Central

Weitzman, Abigail

2017-01-01

This article examines the causal effect of women’s education on maternal health in Peru, a country where maternal mortality has declined by more than 70% in the last two and a half decades. To isolate the effects of education, the author employs an instrumented regression discontinuity that takes advantage of an exogenous source of variation—an amendment to compulsory schooling laws in 1993. The results indicate that extending women’s years of schooling reduced the probability of several maternal health complications at last pregnancy/birth, sometimes by as much as 29%. Underlying these effects, increasing women’s education is found to decrease the probability of short birth intervals and unwanted pregnancies (which may result in unsafe abortions) and to increase antenatal healthcare use, potentially owing to changes in women’s cognitive skills, economic resources, and autonomy. These findings underscore the influential role of education in reducing maternal morbidity and highlight the contributions of women’s education to population health and health transitions. PMID:28301806

Univariate Probability Distributions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leemis, Lawrence M.; Luckett, Daniel J.; Powell, Austin G.; Vermeer, Peter E.

2012-01-01

We describe a web-based interactive graphic that can be used as a resource in introductory classes in mathematical statistics. This interactive graphic presents 76 common univariate distributions and gives details on (a) various features of the distribution such as the functional form of the probability density function and cumulative distribution…

Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards—A prewildfire evaluation for the Jemez Mountains, north-central New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne C.; Haas, Jessica R.

2016-08-11

Wildfire can substantially increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire or subsequent rainfall intensity and duration cannot be known, probabilities of fire and debris‑flow occurrence for given locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious potential debris-flow hazards in the event of a large-scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Jemez Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in both the unburned and previously burned areas of the Jemez Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debris-flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Forest Service.Of the 4,998 subbasins modeled for this study, computed debris-flow probabilities in 671 subbasins were greater than 80 percent in response to the 100-year recurrence interval, 30-minute duration rainfall event. These subbasins ranged in size from 0.01 to 6.57 square kilometers (km2), with an average area of 0.29 km2, and were mostly steep, upstream tributaries to larger channels in the area. Modeled debris-flow volumes in 465 subbasins were greater than 10,000 cubic meters (m3), and 14 of those subbasins had modeled debris‑flow volumes greater than 100,000 m3.The rankings of integrated relative debris-flow hazard indexes for each subbasin were generated by multiplying the individual subbasin values for debris-flow volume, debris‑flow probability, and average burn probability. The subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent typically are large, upland tributaries to canyons and channels primarily in the Upper Rio Grande and Rio Grande-Santa Fe watershed areas. No subbasins in this group have basin areas less than 1.0 km2. Many of these areas already had significant mass‑wasting episodes following the Las Conchas Fire in 2011. Other subbasins with integrated hazard index values in the top 2 percent are scattered throughout the Jemez River watershed area, including some subbasins in the interior of the Valles Caldera. Only a few subbasins in the top integrated hazard index group are in the Rio Chama watershed area.This prewildfire assessment approach is valuable to resource managers because the analysis of the debris-flow threat is made before a wildfire occurs, which facilitates prewildfire management, planning, and mitigation. In north‑central New Mexico, widespread watershed restoration efforts are being done to safeguard vital watersheds against the threat of catastrophic wildfire. This study was designed to help select ideal locations for the restoration efforts that could have the best return on investment.

Host specialist clownfishes are environmental niche generalists.

PubMed

Litsios, Glenn; Kostikova, Anna; Salamin, Nicolas

2014-11-22

Why generalist and specialist species coexist in nature is a question that has interested evolutionary biologists for a long time. While the coexistence of specialists and generalists exploiting resources on a single ecological dimension has been theoretically and empirically explored, biological systems with multiple resource dimensions (e.g. trophic, ecological) are less well understood. Yet, such systems may provide an alternative to the classical theory of stable evolutionary coexistence of generalist and specialist species on a single resource dimension. We explore such systems and the potential trade-offs between different resource dimensions in clownfishes. All species of this iconic clade are obligate mutualists with sea anemones yet show interspecific variation in anemone host specificity. Moreover, clownfishes developed variable environmental specialization across their distribution. In this study, we test for the existence of a relationship between host-specificity (number of anemones associated with a clownfish species) and environmental-specificity (expressed as the size of the ecological niche breadth across climatic gradients). We find a negative correlation between host range and environmental specificities in temperature, salinity and pH, probably indicating a trade-off between both types of specialization forcing species to specialize only in a single direction. Trade-offs in a multi-dimensional resource space could be a novel way of explaining the coexistence of generalist and specialists. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards: a prewildfire evaluation for the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas, central New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne C.; Haas, Jessica R.; Miller, Lara W.; Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P.

2014-01-01

Wildfire can drastically increase the probability of debris flows, a potentially hazardous and destructive form of mass wasting, in landscapes that have otherwise been stable throughout recent history. Although there is no way to know the exact location, extent, and severity of wildfire, or the subsequent rainfall intensity and duration before it happens, probabilities of fire and debris-flow occurrence for different locations can be estimated with geospatial analysis and modeling efforts. The purpose of this report is to provide information on which watersheds might constitute the most serious, potential, debris-flow hazards in the event of a large-scale wildfire and subsequent rainfall in the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Potential probabilities and estimated volumes of postwildfire debris flows in the unburned Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas were estimated using empirical debris-flow models developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in combination with fire behavior and burn probability models developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. The locations of the greatest debris-flow hazards correlate with the areas of steepest slopes and simulated crown-fire behavior. The four subbasins with the highest computed debris-flow probabilities (greater than 98 percent) were all in the Manzano Mountains, two flowing east and two flowing west. Volumes in sixteen subbasins were greater than 50,000 square meters and most of these were in the central Manzanos and the western facing slopes of the Sandias. Five subbasins on the west-facing slopes of the Sandia Mountains, four of which have downstream reaches that lead into the outskirts of the City of Albuquerque, are among subbasins in the 98th percentile of integrated relative debris-flow hazard rankings. The bulk of the remaining subbasins in the 98th percentile of integrated relative debris-flow hazard rankings are located along the highest and steepest slopes of the Manzano Mountains. One of the subbasins is several miles upstream from the community of Tajique and another is several miles upstream from the community of Manzano, both on the eastern slopes of the Manzano Mountains. This prewildfire assessment approach is valuable to resource managers because the analysis of the debris-flow threat is made before a wildfire occurs, which facilitates prewildfire management, planning, and mitigation. In northern New Mexico, widespread watershed restoration efforts are being carried out to safeguard vital watersheds against the threat of catastrophic wildfire. This study was initiated to help select ideal locations for the restoration efforts that could have the best return on investment.

Landslide Hazard from Coupled Inherent and Dynamic Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Nudurupati, S. S.

2015-12-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We sought to unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach couples an empirical inherent landslide probability, based on a frequency ratio analysis, with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining subsurface water recharge and surface runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by combining static and dynamic models of stability into a probabilistic measure of geohazard prediction in both space and time. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex in northern Washington State.

Informing disease models with temporal and spatial contact structure among GPS-collared individuals in wild populations.

PubMed

Williams, David M; Dechen Quinn, Amy C; Porter, William F

2014-01-01

Contacts between hosts are essential for transmission of many infectious agents. Understanding how contacts, and thus transmission rates, occur in space and time is critical to effectively responding to disease outbreaks in free-ranging animal populations. Contacts between animals in the wild are often difficult to observe or measure directly. Instead, one must infer contacts from metrics such as proximity in space and time. Our objective was to examine how contacts between white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) vary in space and among seasons. We used GPS movement data from 71 deer in central New York State to quantify potential direct contacts between deer and indirect overlap in space use across time and space. Daily probabilities of direct contact decreased from winter (0.05-0.14), to low levels post-parturition through summer (0.00-0.02), and increased during the rut to winter levels. The cumulative distribution for the spatial structure of direct and indirect contact probabilities around a hypothetical point of occurrence increased rapidly with distance for deer pairs separated by 1,000 m-7,000 m. Ninety-five percent of the probabilities of direct contact occurred among deer pairs within 8,500 m of one another, and 99% within 10,900 m. Probabilities of indirect contact accumulated across greater spatial extents: 95% at 11,900 m and 99% at 49,000 m. Contacts were spatially consistent across seasons, indicating that although contact rates differ seasonally, they occur proportionally across similar landscape extents. Distributions of contact probabilities across space can inform management decisions for assessing risk and allocating resources in response.

A Study of Strengthening Secondary Mathematics Teachers' Knowledge of Statistics and Probability via Professional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeVaul, Lina

2017-01-01

A professional development program (PSPD) was implemented to improve in-service secondary mathematics teachers' content knowledge, pedagogical knowledge, and self-efficacy in teaching secondary school statistics and probability. Participants generated a teaching resource website at the conclusion of the PSPD program. Participants' content…

Performance evaluation of data center service localization based on virtual resource migration in software defined elastic optical network.

PubMed

Yang, Hui; Zhang, Jie; Ji, Yuefeng; Tan, Yuanlong; Lin, Yi; Han, Jianrui; Lee, Young

2015-09-07

Data center interconnection with elastic optical network is a promising scenario to meet the high burstiness and high-bandwidth requirements of data center services. In our previous work, we implemented cross stratum optimization of optical network and application stratums resources that allows to accommodate data center services. In view of this, this study extends the data center resources to user side to enhance the end-to-end quality of service. We propose a novel data center service localization (DCSL) architecture based on virtual resource migration in software defined elastic data center optical network. A migration evaluation scheme (MES) is introduced for DCSL based on the proposed architecture. The DCSL can enhance the responsiveness to the dynamic end-to-end data center demands, and effectively reduce the blocking probability to globally optimize optical network and application resources. The overall feasibility and efficiency of the proposed architecture are experimentally verified on the control plane of our OpenFlow-based enhanced SDN testbed. The performance of MES scheme under heavy traffic load scenario is also quantitatively evaluated based on DCSL architecture in terms of path blocking probability, provisioning latency and resource utilization, compared with other provisioning scheme.

Geology and petroleum resources of the Barents-northern Kara shelf in light of new geologic data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ulmishek, G.

1985-10-01

The Barents-northern Kara shelf, one of the largest continental shelves in the world, is still in the earliest stage of exploration for oil and gas. During the last several years, numerous seismic surveys have been conducted, a number of wells have been drilled, and several gas fields have been discovered. This report summarizes the geological data gathered during recent exploration activities and presents the changes in earlier concepts necessitated by consideration of these new data. The revised assessment of undiscovered petroleum resources is based on new information about the distribution and quality of source rocks and reservoir rocks and themore » structural framework of the shelf. Special attention is paid to evaluating the oil versus gas potential of the shelf, an evaluation that strongly depends on the expected offshore extension of oil-source facies in the Lower-Middle Triassic section. The most probable amounts of undiscovered petroleum resources of the shelf are estimated at 14.2 x 10/sup 9/ barrels of oil and 312.2 x 10/sup 12/ cubic feet of gas. The Finnmark trough, the south Barents and North Novaya Zemlya depressions, and the offshore continuation of the Timan-Pechora basin possess the great majority of these resources. 103 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab.« less

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, Alexandra; Young, Millennia; Saile, Lynn; Boley, Lynn; Walton, Marlei; Kerstman, Eric; Shah, Ronak; Goodenow, Debra A.; Myers, Jerry G.

2015-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, Alexandra; Young, Millennia; Saile, Lynn; Boley, Lynn; Walton, Marlei; Kerstman, Eric; Shah, Ronak; Goodenow, Debra A.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.

2015-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gavane, Ajinkya S., E-mail: ajinkyagavane@gmail.com; Nigam, Rahul, E-mail: rahul.nigam@hyderabad.bits-pilani.ac.in

This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations formore » such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.« less

Resolving structural uncertainty in natural resources management using POMDP approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2011-01-01

In recent years there has been a growing focus on the uncertainties of natural resources management, and the importance of accounting for uncertainty in assessing management effectiveness. This paper focuses on uncertainty in resource management in terms of discrete-state Markov decision processes (MDP) under structural uncertainty and partial observability. It describes the treatment of structural uncertainty with approaches developed for partially observable resource systems. In particular, I show how value iteration for partially observable MDPs (POMDP) can be extended to structurally uncertain MDPs. A key difference between these process classes is that structurally uncertain MDPs require the tracking of system state as well as a probability structure for the structure uncertainty, whereas with POMDPs require only a probability structure for the observation uncertainty. The added complexity of the optimization problem under structural uncertainty is compensated by reduced dimensionality in the search for optimal strategy. A solution algorithm for structurally uncertain processes is outlined for a simple example in conservation biology. By building on the conceptual framework developed for POMDPs, natural resource analysts and decision makers who confront structural uncertainties in natural resources can take advantage of the rapid growth in POMDP methods and approaches, and thereby produce better conservation strategies over a larger class of resource problems. ?? 2011.

Molecular genetics research in ADHD: ethical considerations concerning patients' benefit and resource allocation.

PubMed

Rothenberger, Lillian Geza

2012-12-01

Immense resource allocations have led to great data output in genetic research. Concerning ADHD resources spent on genetic research are less than those spent on clinical research. But there are successful efforts made to increase support for molecular genetics research in ADHD. Concerning genetics no evidence based conclusive results have significant impact on prevention, diagnosis or treatment yet. With regard to ethical aspects like the patients' benefit and limited resources the question arises if it is indicated to think about a new balance of resource allocation between molecular genetics and non-genetics research in ADHD. An ethical reflection was performed focusing on recent genetic studies and reviews based on a selective literature search. There are plausible reasons why genetic research results in ADHD are somehow disappointing for clinical practice so far. Researchers try to overcome these gaps systematically, without knowing what the potential future benefits for the patients might be. Non-genetic diagnostic/therapeutic research may lead to clinically relevant findings within a shorter period of time. On the other hand, non-genetic research in ADHD may be nurtured by genetic approaches. But, with the latter there exist significant risks of harm like stigmatization and concerns regarding data protection. Isolated speeding up resources of genetic research in ADHD seems questionable from an ethical point of view. There is a need to find a new balance of resource allocation between genetic and non-genetic research in ADHD, probably by integrating genetics more systematically into clinical research. A transdisciplinary debate is recommended. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris

2014-08-01

We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

2016-06-01

Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome , which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the learning assessment protocols.

Probability Distributome: A Web Computational Infrastructure for Exploring the Properties, Interrelations, and Applications of Probability Distributions

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.; Siegrist, Kyle; Pearl, Dennis K.; Kalinin, Alexandr; Christou, Nicolas

2015-01-01

Probability distributions are useful for modeling, simulation, analysis, and inference on varieties of natural processes and physical phenomena. There are uncountably many probability distributions. However, a few dozen families of distributions are commonly defined and are frequently used in practice for problem solving, experimental applications, and theoretical studies. In this paper, we present a new computational and graphical infrastructure, the Distributome, which facilitates the discovery, exploration and application of diverse spectra of probability distributions. The extensible Distributome infrastructure provides interfaces for (human and machine) traversal, search, and navigation of all common probability distributions. It also enables distribution modeling, applications, investigation of inter-distribution relations, as well as their analytical representations and computational utilization. The entire Distributome framework is designed and implemented as an open-source, community-built, and Internet-accessible infrastructure. It is portable, extensible and compatible with HTML5 and Web2.0 standards (http://Distributome.org). We demonstrate two types of applications of the probability Distributome resources: computational research and science education. The Distributome tools may be employed to address five complementary computational modeling applications (simulation, data-analysis and inference, model-fitting, examination of the analytical, mathematical and computational properties of specific probability distributions, and exploration of the inter-distributional relations). Many high school and college science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) courses may be enriched by the use of modern pedagogical approaches and technology-enhanced methods. The Distributome resources provide enhancements for blended STEM education by improving student motivation, augmenting the classical curriculum with interactive webapps, and overhauling the learning assessment protocols. PMID:27158191

30 CFR 281.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Definitions. 281.3 Section 281.3 Mineral Resources BUREAU OF OCEAN ENERGY MANAGEMENT, REGULATION, AND ENFORCEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR..., exploration, testing, and mining activities; or (3) In which there is a reasonable probability of significant...

Comments on Potential Geologic and Seismic Hazards Affecting Proposed Liquefied Natural Gas Site in Santa Monica Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Stephanie L.; Lee, Homa J.; Parsons, Tom E.; Beyer, Larry A.; Boore, David M.; Conrad, James E.; Edwards, Brian D.; Fisher, Michael A.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Geist, Eric L.; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Hough, Susan E.; Kayen, Robert E.; Lorenson, T.D.; Luco, Nicolas; McCrory, Patricia A.; McGann, Mary; Nathenson, Manuel; Nolan, Michael; Petersen, Mark D.; Ponti, Daniel J.; Powell, Charles L.; Ryan, Holly F.; Tinsley, John C.; Wills, Chris J.; Wong, Florence L.; Xu, Jingping

2008-01-01

In a letter to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) dated March 25, 2008, Representative Jane Harman (California 36th district) requested advice on geologic hazards that should be considered in the review of a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility off the California coast in Santa Monica Bay. In 2004, the USGS responded to a similar request from Representative Lois Capps, regarding two proposed LNG facilities offshore Ventura County, Calif., with a report summarizing potential geologic and seismic hazards (Ross and others, 2004). The proposed LNG Deepwater Port (DWP) facility includes single point moorings (SPMs) and 35 miles of underwater pipelines. The DWP submersible buoys, manifolds, and risers would be situated on the floor of the southern Santa Monica Basin, in 3,000 feet of water, about 23 miles offshore of the Palos Verdes Peninsula. Twin 24-inch diameter pipelines would extend northeastward from the buoys across the basin floor, up the basin slope and across the continental shelf, skirting north around the Santa Monica submarine canyon. Figure 1 provides locations of the project and geologic features. Acronyms are defined in table 1. This facility is being proposed in a region of known geologic hazards that arise from both the potential for strong earthquakes and geologic processes related to sediment transport and accumulation in the offshore environment. The probability of a damaging earthquake (considered here as magnitude 6.5 or greater) in the next 30 years within about 30 miles (50 km) of the proposed pipeline ranges from 16% at the pipeline's offshore end to 48% where it nears land (Petersen, 2008). Earthquakes of this magnitude are capable of producing strong shaking, surface fault offsets, liquefaction phenomena, landslides, underwater turbidity currents and debris flow avalanches, and tsunamis. As part of the DWP license application for the Woodside Natural Gas proposal in Santa Monica Bay (known as the OceanWay Secure Energy Project), Fugro West, Inc., had already prepared a document discussing geologic hazards in the area, titled 'Exhibit B Topic Report 6 - Geological Resources' (Fugro West, Inc., 2007); hereafter, this will be called the 'Geological Resources document'. The USGS agreed to evaluate the information in the Geological Resources document regarding (1) proximity of active faults to the proposed project, (2) potential magnitude of seismic events from nearby faults, (3) thoroughness of the assessment of earthquake hazards in general, (4) potential hazards from ground rupture and strong shaking, (5) potential hazards from tsunamis, and (6) other geologic hazards including landslides and debris flows. Because two new earthquake probability reports were scheduled to be released in mid-April, 2008, by the USGS and the California Geological Survey (CGS), the USGS suggested a 6-month review period to enable a thorough incorporation of this new information. Twenty-seven scientists from the USGS and the CGS reviewed various sections of the Geological Resources document. This report outlines our major conclusions. The appendix is a longer list of comments by these reviewers, grouped by section of the Geological Resources document. Before discussing our reviews, we first provide a brief overview of geologic hazards in the proposed site area. This report is a snapshot in time and any future work in the area will need to take into account ongoing research efforts. For example, USGS scientists collected seismic reflection data in the spring of 2008 to study the structure and seismic potential of several faults in the area. Their interpretations (Conrad and others, 2008a and 2008b) are too preliminary to be included in this report, but their final results, along with other researchers' studies in the project area, should be considered in any future work on the Deepwater Port project.

Potential mineral resources, Payette National Forest, Idaho: description and probabilistic estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Johnson, Bruce R.; Cookro, Theresa M.; Lund, Karen; Watts, Kenneth C.; King, Harley D.; Kleinkopf, Merlin D.; Pitkin, James A.; Sanchez, J. David; Causey, J. Douglas

1998-01-01

The Payette National Forest (PNF), in west-central Idaho, is geologically diverse and contains a wide variety of mineral resources. Mineral deposit types are grouped into locatable, leasable, and salable categories. The PNF has substantial past production and identified resources of locatable commodities, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, tungsten, antimony, mercury, and opal. Minor lignitic coal is the only leasable mineral resource known to be present in the PNF. Resources of salable commodities in the PNF include sand-and-gravel, basalt for crushed-rock aggregate, and minor gypsum. Locatable mineral resources are geographically divided between eastern and western parts of the PNF. The western PNF lies west of the Riggins-to-Cascade highway (US 95 - Idaho 55), and the eastern PNF is east of that highway. The western and eastern parts of the PNF are geologically distinctive and have different types of locatable mineral deposits, so their locatable mineral resources are described separately. Within the western and eastern parts of the PNF, locatable deposit types generally are described in order of decreasing geologic age. An expert panel delineated tracts considered geologically permissive and (or) favorable for the occurrence of undiscovered mineral deposits of types that are known to be present within or near the PNF. The panel also estimated probabilities for undiscovered deposits, and used numerical simulation, based on tonnage-grade distribution models, to derive estimates of in-situ metals contained. These estimates are summarized in terms of mean and median measures of central tendency. Most grade and tonnage distributions appear to be log-normal, with the median lower than the mean. Inasmuch as the mean is influenced by the largest deposits in the model tonnage-grade distribution, the median provides a lower measure of central tendency and a more conservative estimation of undiscovered resources.

A novel method to identify herds with an increased probability of disease introduction due to animal trade.

PubMed

Frössling, Jenny; Nusinovici, Simon; Nöremark, Maria; Widgren, Stefan; Lindberg, Ann

2014-11-15

In the design of surveillance, there is often a desire to target high risk herds. Such risk-based approaches result in better allocation of resources and improve the performance of surveillance activities. For many contagious animal diseases, movement of live animals is a main route of transmission, and because of this, herds that purchase many live animals or have a large contact network due to trade can be seen as a high risk stratum of the population. This paper presents a new method to assess herd disease risk in animal movement networks. It is an improvement to current network measures that takes direction, temporal order, and also movement size and probability of disease into account. In the study, the method was used to calculate a probability of disease ratio (PDR) of herds in simulated datasets, and of real herds based on animal movement data from dairy herds included in a bulk milk survey for Coxiella burnetii. Known differences in probability of disease are easily incorporated in the calculations and the PDR was calculated while accounting for regional differences in probability of disease, and also by applying equal probability of disease throughout the population. Each herd's increased probability of disease due to purchase of animals was compared to both the average herd and herds within the same risk stratum. The results show that the PDR is able to capture the different circumstances related to disease prevalence and animal trade contact patterns. Comparison of results based on inclusion or exclusion of differences in risk also highlights how ignoring such differences can influence the ability to correctly identify high risk herds. The method shows a potential to be useful for risk-based surveillance, in the classification of herds in control programmes or to represent influential contacts in risk factor studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Manganese nodule resources in the northeastern equatorial Pacific

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKelvey, V.E.; Wright, Nancy A.; Rowland, Robert W.

1979-01-01

Recent publication of maps at scale 1:1,000,000 of the northeastern equatorial Pacific region showing publicly available information on the nickel plus copper content of manganese nodules has made it possible to outline the prime area between the Clarion and Clipperton fracture zones which has been the focus of several recent scientific and commercial studies. The area, defined as that in which the nodules contain more than 1.8 percent nickel plus copper, is about 2o5 million km2. The available evidence suggests that about half of it contains nodules in concentration (reported in wet weight units) greater than 5 kg/m2 and averaging 11.9 kg/m2. If we assume that 20 percent of the nodules in this area of 1.25 million km2 are recoverable, its potential recoverable resources are about 2.1 billion dry metric tons of nodules averaging about 25 percent Mn, 1.3 percent Ni, 1.0 percent Cu, 0.22 percent Co, and 0.05 percent Mo—enough to support about 27 mining operations each producing an average of 75 million metric tons of nodules over their lifetimes. Estimates based on other plausible assumptions would be higher or lower, but of the same order of magnitude. Thus it seems probable that the magnitude of the potentially recoverable nodule resources of the Clarion-Clipperton prime area—the most promising now known—is at most in the range of several tens of the average-size operations postulated.

Developing Gyrfalcon surveys and monitoring for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuller, Mark R.; Schempf, Philip F.; Booms, Travis L.

2011-01-01

We developed methods to monitor the status of Gyrfalcons in Alaska. Results of surveys and monitoring will be informative for resource managers and will be useful for studying potential changes in ecological communities of the high latitudes. We estimated that the probability of detecting a Gyrfalcon at an occupied nest site was between 64% and 87% depending on observer experience and aircraft type (fixed-wing or helicopter). The probability of detection is an important factor for estimating occupancy of nesting areas, and occupancy can be used as a metric for monitoring species' status. We conclude that surveys of nesting habitat to monitor occupancy during the breeding season are practical because of the high probability of seeing a Gyrfalcon from aircraft. Aerial surveys are effective for searching sample plots or index areas in the expanse of the Alaskan terrain. Furthermore, several species of cliff-nesting birds can be surveyed concurrently from aircraft. Occupancy estimation also can be applied using data from other field search methods (e.g., from boats) that have proven useful in Alaska. We believe a coordinated broad-scale, inter-agency, collaborative approach is necessary in Alaska. Monitoring can be facilitated by collating and archiving each set of results in a secure universal repository to allow for statewide meta-analysis.

Appraisal of the water resources of Death Valley, California-Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Glenn Allen

1977-01-01

The hydrologic system in Death Valley is probably in a steady-state condition--that is, recharge and discharge are equal, and net changes in the quantity of ground water in storage are not occurring. Recharge to ground water in the valley is derived from interbasin underflow and from local precipitation. The two sources may be of the same magnitude. Ground water beneath the valley moves toward the lowest area, a 200-square-mile saltpan, much of which is underlain by rock salt and other saline minerals, probably to depths of hundreds of feet or even more than 1,000 feet. Some water discharges from the saltpan by evaportranspiration. Water beneath the valley floor, excluding the saltpan, typically contains between 3,000 and 5,000 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids. Water from most springs and seeps in the mountains contains a few hundred to several hundred milligrams per liter of dissolved solids. Water from large springs that probably discharge from interbasin flow systems typically contains between 500 and 1,000 milligrams per liter dissolved solids. Present sites of intensive use by man are supplied by springs, with the exception of the Stovepipe Wells Hotel area. Potential sources of supply for this area include (1) Emigrant Spring area, (2) Cottonwood Spring, and (3) northern Mesquite Flat. (Woodard-USGS)

Condition of Tidal Wetlands of Washington, Oregon and California - 2002

EPA Science Inventory

The National Coastal Assessment (NCA) of US EPA conducted the first probability based assessment of the condition of estuarine intertidal wetland resources of the West Coast of the U.S. in 2002. The study results constitute a baseline estimate of condition of coastal resources t...

USING GIS TO GENERATE SPATIALLY-BALANCED RANDOM SURVEY DESIGNS FOR NATURAL RESOURCE APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Sampling of a population is frequently required to understand trends and patterns in natural resource management because financial and time constraints preclude a complete census. A rigorous probability-based survey design specifies where to sample so that inferences from the sam...

Assessment of undiscovered conventionally recoverable petroleum resources of the Arabian-Iranian Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masters, Charles D.; Klemme, H. Douglas; Coury, Anny B.

1982-01-01

The estimates of undiscovered conventionally recoverable petroleum resources in the Arabian-Iranian basin at probability levels of 95 percent, 5 percent, and statistical mean are for oil (in billions of barrels): 72, 337, and 174; and for gas (in trillions of cubic feet): 299, 1792, and 849. The occurrence of petroleum can be accounted for in five definitive geological settings or plays. The assessment of undiscovered resource potential assumes that the new discoveries will expand the occurrence of petroleum in these basic plays; no additional plays with significant petroleum potential were recognized. The five plays listed by geologic age are: (I) Upper Cretaceous and Tertiary, (II) Lower and Middle Cretaceous sandstone, (III) Lower and Middle Cretaceous limestone, (IV) Jurassic, and (V) Permian. The Permian play, located in the south-central Arabian Gulf region and extending northeast-southwest from southern Iran to the Ar Rub' al Khali in Saudi Arabia, accounts for over four-fifths of the mean estimate of undiscovered gas. The remainder of the gas is divided about equally among the other four plays. The Jurassic play, located on the south side of the Arabian Gulf, accounts for slightly less than one-third of the estimated undiscovered oil, which is split equally between Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The Lower and Middle Cretaceous limestone play is located in the southern Gulf region and accounts for about one-fifth of the undiscovered oil, most of which is located in Saudi Arabia and the remainder in the United Arab Emirates. The Lower and Middle Cretaceous sandstone play is centralized in Kuwait at the head of the Arabian Gulf with significant potential extending to the northwest in Iraq; the play accounts for about one-third of the undiscovered oil, the great majority of which is estimated to be in Iraq with the remainder divided between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The upper Cretaceous-Tertiary play is located in the Zagros fold belt of Iran and Iraq and accounts for about one-fifth of the undiscovered oil. Estimation of the resources in this vast area is hindered by lack of data from certain broad regions, abandoned wells, and several significant dry holes, but the regional geology is well enough reported that geologic projections can be made and inferences from selected wells can be drawn to permit estimation of the resource potential.

On the evolution of specialization with a mechanistic underpinning in structured metapopulations.

PubMed

Nurmi, Tuomas; Parvinen, Kalle

2008-03-01

We analyze the evolution of specialization in resource utilization in a discrete-time metapopulation model using the adaptive dynamics approach. The local dynamics in the metapopulation are based on the Beverton-Holt model with mechanistic underpinnings. The consumer faces a trade-off in the abilities to consume two resources that are spatially heterogeneously distributed to patches that are prone to local catastrophes. We explore the factors favoring the spread of generalist or specialist strategies. Increasing fecundity or decreasing catastrophe probability favors the spread of the generalist strategy and increasing environmental heterogeneity enlarges the parameter domain where the evolutionary branching is possible. When there are no catastrophes, increasing emigration diminishes the parameter domain where the evolutionary branching may occur. Otherwise, the effect of emigration on evolutionary dynamics is non-monotonous: both small and large values of emigration probability favor the spread of the specialist strategies whereas the parameter domain where evolutionary branching may occur is largest when the emigration probability has intermediate values. We compare how different forms of spatial heterogeneity and different models of local growth affect the evolutionary dynamics. We show that even small changes in the resource dynamics may have outstanding evolutionary effects to the consumers.

Geology and assessment of the undiscovered, technically recoverable petroleum resources of Armenia, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, T.R.

2016-02-23

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessed the undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas resources of Armenia in 2013. A Paleozoic and a Cenozoic total petroleum system (TPS) were identified within the country of Armenia. The postulated petroleum system elements are uncertain, resulting in low geologic probabilities for significant oil an gas resources. Two assessment units (AU) were delineated in each TPS—a Paleozoic-Sourced Conventional Reservoirs AU and a Permian Shale Gas AU in the Paleozoic Composite TPS and a Paleogene-Sourced Conventional Reservoirs AU and a Cenozoic Coalbed Gas AU in the Cenozoic Composite TPS. The TPS elements are largely uncertain and risked, and so only the Paleogene-Sourced Conventional Reservoirs AU was quantitatively assessed because the geologic probability is more than the threshold of 10 percent (that is, the probability of at least one conventional oil or gas accumulation of 5 million barrels of oil equivalent or greater based on postulated petroleum-system elements). The USGS estimated fully risked mean volumes of about 1 million barrels of oil (MMBO), about 6 billion cubic feet of natural gas (BCFG), and less than 1 million barrels of natural gas liquids (MMBNGL).

Predictive models attribute effects on fish assemblages to toxicity and habitat alteration.

PubMed

de Zwart, Dick; Dyer, Scott D; Posthuma, Leo; Hawkins, Charles P

2006-08-01

Biological assessments should both estimate the condition of a biological resource (magnitude of alteration) and provide environmental managers with a diagnosis of the potential causes of impairment. Although methods of quantifying condition are well developed, identifying and proportionately attributing impairment to probable causes remain problematic. Furthermore, analyses of both condition and cause have often been difficult to communicate. We developed an approach that (1) links fish, habitat, and chemistry data collected from hundreds of sites in Ohio (USA) streams, (2) assesses the biological condition at each site, (3) attributes impairment to multiple probable causes, and (4) provides the results of the analyses in simple-to-interpret pie charts. The data set was managed using a geographic information system. Biological condition was assessed using a RIVPACS (river invertebrate prediction and classification system)-like predictive model. The model provided probabilities of capture for 117 fish species based on the geographic location of sites and local habitat descriptors. Impaired biological condition was defined as the proportion of those native species predicted to occur at a site that were observed. The potential toxic effects of exposure to mixtures of contaminants were estimated using species sensitivity distributions and mixture toxicity principles. Generalized linear regression models described species abundance as a function of habitat characteristics. Statistically linking biological condition, habitat characteristics including mixture risks, and species abundance allowed us to evaluate the losses of species with environmental conditions. Results were mapped as simple effect and probable-cause pie charts (EPC pie diagrams), with pie sizes corresponding to magnitude of local impairment, and slice sizes to the relative probable contributions of different stressors. The types of models we used have been successfully applied in ecology and ecotoxicology, but they have not previously been used in concert to quantify impairment and its likely causes. Although data limitations constrained our ability to examine complex interactions between stressors and species, the direct relationships we detected likely represent conservative estimates of stressor contributions to local impairment. Future refinements of the general approach and specific methods described here should yield even more promising results.

Predatory fish sounds can alter crab foraging behaviour and influence bivalve abundance

PubMed Central

Hughes, A. Randall; Mann, David A.; Kimbro, David L.

2014-01-01

The risk of predation can have large effects on ecological communities via changes in prey behaviour, morphology and reproduction. Although prey can use a variety of sensory signals to detect predation risk, relatively little is known regarding the effects of predator acoustic cues on prey foraging behaviour. Here we show that an ecologically important marine crab species can detect sound across a range of frequencies, probably in response to particle acceleration. Further, crabs suppress their resource consumption in the presence of experimental acoustic stimuli from multiple predatory fish species, and the sign and strength of this response is similar to that elicited by water-borne chemical cues. When acoustic and chemical cues were combined, consumption differed from expectations based on independent cue effects, suggesting redundancies among cue types. These results highlight that predator acoustic cues may influence prey behaviour across a range of vertebrate and invertebrate taxa, with the potential for cascading effects on resource abundance. PMID:24943367

Reagent Strips as an Aid to Diagnosis of Neonatal Meningitis in a Resource-limited Setting.

PubMed

Burgoine, Kathy; Ikiror, Juliet; Naizuli, Ketty; Achom, Linda; Akol, Sylivia; Olupot-Olupot, Peter

2018-01-29

Without early recognition and treatment, neonatal meningitis (NM) has a high mortality and morbidity. Although some neonates have features of NM, many do not. In many low-resource settings, the laboratory support to diagnose NM is not available, and bedside diagnostics are needed. This retrospective study was conducted in a neonatal unit in Uganda. Clear cerebrospinal fluid samples were routinely screened for glucose, protein and leukocytes on a Combur®-10 urinalysis reagent strip. A definitive diagnosis was made using laboratory analysis. The results of the screening and definitive tests were compared. The reagent strip showed moderate sensitivity and high specificity for leukocytes ≥10×106 cells/l, high sensitivity for protein ≥100 mg/dl and high specificity for glucose <50 mg/dl. The use of reagent strips has the potential to improve and hasten the diagnosis of probable NM in settings where adequate or timely laboratory support is not available. © The Author(s) [2018]. Published by Oxford University Press.

Sensitivity of resource selection and connectivity models to landscape definition

Treesearch

Katherine A. Zeller; Kevin McGarigal; Samuel A. Cushman; Paul Beier; T. Winston Vickers; Walter M. Boyce

2017-01-01

Context: The definition of the geospatial landscape is the underlying basis for species-habitat models, yet sensitivity of habitat use inference, predicted probability surfaces, and connectivity models to landscape definition has received little attention. Objectives: We evaluated the sensitivity of resource selection and connectivity models to four landscape...

Probabilistic reasoning in data analysis.

PubMed

Sirovich, Lawrence

2011-09-20

This Teaching Resource provides lecture notes, slides, and a student assignment for a lecture on probabilistic reasoning in the analysis of biological data. General probabilistic frameworks are introduced, and a number of standard probability distributions are described using simple intuitive ideas. Particular attention is focused on random arrivals that are independent of prior history (Markovian events), with an emphasis on waiting times, Poisson processes, and Poisson probability distributions. The use of these various probability distributions is applied to biomedical problems, including several classic experimental studies.

Mineralization in the Uyaijah-Thaaban area, west-central part of the Uyaijah ring structure, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodge, F.C.; Helaby, A.M.

1975-01-01

Anomalous amounts of tungsten, molybdenum, and bismuth were found previously in surficial debris collected from the Uyaijah-Thaaban area in the west-central part of the Precambrian Al Uyaijah ring structure. The area is mostly underlain by quartz monzonite. Countless quartz veins ranging from a knife edge to more than 3 m in thickness cut the quartz monzonite; many of these veins contain molybdenite. Detailed mapping and intensive sampling of the molybdenite-bearing quartz veins indicate that their grade and quantity are probably inadequate to permit present-day mining; however, they represent a potential future resource. The tungsten of the area appears to be negligible.

A cautionary note on substituting spatial subunits for repeated temporal sampling in studies of site occupancy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, William L.; White, Gary C.

2009-01-01

1. Assessing the probability that a given site is occupied by a species of interest is important to resource managers, as well as metapopulation or landscape ecologists. Managers require accurate estimates of the state of the system, in order to make informed decisions. Models that yield estimates of occupancy, while accounting for imperfect detection, have proven useful by removing a potentially important source of bias. To account for detection probability, multiple independent searches per site for the species are required, under the assumption that the species is available for detection during each search of an occupied site. 2. We demonstrate that when multiple samples per site are defined by searching different locations within a site, absence of the species from a subset of these spatial subunits induces estimation bias when locations are exhaustively assessed or sampled without replacement. 3. We further demonstrate that this bias can be removed by choosing sampling locations with replacement, or if the species is highly mobile over a short period of time. 4. Resampling an existing data set does not mitigate bias due to exhaustive assessment of locations or sampling without replacement. 5. Synthesis and applications. Selecting sampling locations for presence/absence surveys with replacement is practical in most cases. Such an adjustment to field methods will prevent one source of bias, and therefore produce more robust statistical inferences about species occupancy. This will in turn permit managers to make resource decisions based on better knowledge of the state of the system.

First-impression bias effects on mismatch negativity to auditory spatial deviants.

PubMed

Fitzgerald, Kaitlin; Provost, Alexander; Todd, Juanita

2018-04-01

Internal models of regularities in the world serve to facilitate perception as redundant input can be predicted and neural resources conserved for that which is new or unexpected. In the auditory system, this is reflected in an evoked potential component known as mismatch negativity (MMN). MMN is elicited by the violation of an established regularity to signal the inaccuracy of the current model and direct resources to the unexpected event. Prevailing accounts suggest that MMN amplitude will increase with stability in regularity; however, observations of first-impression bias contradict stability effects. If tones rotate probabilities as a rare deviant (p = .125) and common standard (p = .875), MMN elicited to the initial deviant tone reaches maximal amplitude faster than MMN to the first standard when later encountered as deviant-a differential pattern that persists throughout rotations. Sensory inference is therefore biased by longer-term contextual information beyond local probability statistics. Using the same multicontext sequence structure, we examined whether this bias generalizes to MMN elicited by spatial sound cues using monaural sounds (n = 19, right first deviant and n = 22, left first deviant) and binaural sounds (n = 19, right first deviant). The characteristic differential modulation of MMN to the two tones was observed in two of three groups, providing partial support for the generalization of first-impression bias to spatially deviant sounds. We discuss possible explanations for its absence when the initial deviant was delivered monaurally to the right ear. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Resource reallocation patterns within Sagittaria trifolia inflorescences following differential pollination.

PubMed

Dai, Can; Luo, Wen-Jie; Gong, Yan-Bing; Liu, Fan; Wang, Zheng-Xiang

2018-04-30

Understanding resource allocation to reproduction, a key factor in life history tradeoffs, has long intrigued plant ecologists. Despite the recognized importance of understanding the movement of resources among flowers following variable pollination, the patterns of resource reallocation to plant reproductive organs have not been thoroughly addressed. In this study, we aimed to empirically explore how resources redistribute within inflorescences in response to differential pollination intensities. Using a common herb, Sagittaria trifolia, we conducted supplemental and controlled pollination for single, some, or all flowers in simple and complex inflorescences, and compared their resulting fruiting probabilities, seed production, and average seed masses. Pollen supplementation of a single flower significantly increased its fruiting probability; however, the same manipulation of an inflorescence did not increase its overall reproduction. Single pollen-supplemented flowers had a higher percentage fruit set than inflorescences receiving supplemental pollination. In complex inflorescences, supplemental pollination had no effect on the reproductive success of flowers on the lateral or main branches. We provided evidence of resource reallocation from controlled to pollen-supplemented flowers in simple inflorescences; however, resources were unlikely to be reallocated between the main and lateral branches in the complex inflorescences, suggesting that flowering branches represent integrated physiological units in S. trifolia. The results also demonstrated that single-flower supplemental pollination would exaggerate pollen limitation and lead to a biased understanding of a plant's reproductive status. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.

Informing Disease Models with Temporal and Spatial Contact Structure among GPS-Collared Individuals in Wild Populations

PubMed Central

Williams, David M.; Dechen Quinn, Amy C.; Porter, William F.

2014-01-01

Contacts between hosts are essential for transmission of many infectious agents. Understanding how contacts, and thus transmission rates, occur in space and time is critical to effectively responding to disease outbreaks in free-ranging animal populations. Contacts between animals in the wild are often difficult to observe or measure directly. Instead, one must infer contacts from metrics such as proximity in space and time. Our objective was to examine how contacts between white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) vary in space and among seasons. We used GPS movement data from 71 deer in central New York State to quantify potential direct contacts between deer and indirect overlap in space use across time and space. Daily probabilities of direct contact decreased from winter (0.05–0.14), to low levels post-parturition through summer (0.00–0.02), and increased during the rut to winter levels. The cumulative distribution for the spatial structure of direct and indirect contact probabilities around a hypothetical point of occurrence increased rapidly with distance for deer pairs separated by 1,000 m – 7,000 m. Ninety-five percent of the probabilities of direct contact occurred among deer pairs within 8,500 m of one another, and 99% within 10,900 m. Probabilities of indirect contact accumulated across greater spatial extents: 95% at 11,900 m and 99% at 49,000 m. Contacts were spatially consistent across seasons, indicating that although contact rates differ seasonally, they occur proportionally across similar landscape extents. Distributions of contact probabilities across space can inform management decisions for assessing risk and allocating resources in response. PMID:24409293

How much spare capacity is necessary for the security of resource networks?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Qian-Chuan; Jia, Qing-Shan; Cao, Yang

2007-01-01

The balance between the supply and demand of some kind of resource is critical for the functionality and security of many complex networks. Local contingencies that break this balance can cause a global collapse. These contingencies are usually dealt with by spare capacity, which is costly especially when the network capacity (the total amount of the resource generated/consumed in the network) grows. This paper studies the relationship between the spare capacity and the collapse probability under separation contingencies when the network capacity grows. Our results are obtained based on the analysis of the existence probability of balanced partitions, which is a measure of network security when network splitting is unavoidable. We find that a network with growing capacity will inevitably collapse after a separation contingency if the spare capacity in each island increases slower than a linear function of the network capacity and there is no suitable global coordinator.

The routing, modulation level, and spectrum allocation algorithm in the virtual optical network mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yunyun; Li, Hui; Liu, Yuze; Ji, Yuefeng; Li, Hongfa

2017-10-01

With the development of large video services and cloud computing, the network is increasingly in the form of services. In SDON, the SDN controller holds the underlying physical resource information, thus allocating the appropriate resources and bandwidth to the VON service. However, for some services that require extremely strict QoT (quality of transmission), the shortest distance path algorithm is often unable to meet the requirements because it does not take the link spectrum resources into account. And in accordance with the choice of the most unoccupied links, there may be more spectrum fragments. So here we propose a new RMLSA (the routing, modulation Level, and spectrum allocation) algorithm to reduce the blocking probability. The results show about 40% less blocking probability than the shortest-distance algorithm and the minimum usage of the spectrum priority algorithm. This algorithm is used to satisfy strict request of QoT for demands.

An Ecological Paradox: The African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus) Is Not Attracted to Water Points When Water Is Scarce in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Ndaimani, Henry; Tagwireyi, Paradzayi; Sebele, Lovelater; Madzikanda, Hillary

2016-01-01

In dry biomes, spatio-temporal variation in surface water resource stocks is pervasive, with unknown effects on the ranging behaviour of large predators. This study assessed the effect of spatial variation in surface water resources on the ranging behaviour of the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). We analyzed data for 1992 (dry year with 20 water points) and 2000 (wet year with 30 water points) against presence-only data for five packs of L. pictus in a part of Hwange National Park and adjacent smallholder communal farming areas in western Zimbabwe. Modelling the potential habitat for L. pictus using Maxent with distance from water points (Dw) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as predictor variables was successful for 2000 (AUC = 0.793) but not successful for 1992 (AUC = 0.423), with L. pictus probability of occurrence near water points being more for year 2000 than for year 1992. The predicted L. pictus range was wider in 1992 (~13888.1 km2) than in 2000 (~958.4 km2) (Test of Proportions, χ2 = 124.52, df = 1, P = 0.00). Using the 2nd order Multitype Nearest Neighbour Distance Function (Gcross), we also observed significant attraction between L. pictus and water points within only ~1km radius for 1992 but up to ~8km radius for 2000. Our study reinforced the notion that surface water resources attract wild dogs in the savannahs but paradoxically less so when water resources are scarce. In particular, our study furthers current understanding of the effects of changing water availability regimes on the endangered L. pictus, providing evidence that the endangered predator’s home range encroaches into potential ecological traps (i.e., smallholder communal farming areas) when water resources are scarce. PMID:26816321

Hexavalent IPV-based combination vaccines for public-sector markets of low-resource countries

PubMed Central

Mahmood, Kutub; Pelkowski, Sonia; Atherly, Deborah; Sitrin, Robert; Donnelly, John J

2013-01-01

In anticipation of the successful eradication of wild polio virus, alternative vaccination strategies for public-sector markets of low-resource countries are extremely important, but are still under development. Following polio eradication, inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) would be the only polio vaccine available, and would be needed for early childhood immunization for several years, as maintenance of herd immunity will be important for sustaining polio eradication. Low-cost combination vaccines containing IPV could provide reliable and continuous immunization in the post-polio eradication period. Combination vaccines can potentially simplify complex pediatric routine immunization schedules, improve compliance, and reduce costs. Hexavalent vaccines containing Diphtheria (D), Tetanus (T), whole cell pertussis (wP), Hepatitis B (HBV), Haemophilus b (Hib) and the three IPV serotype antigens have been considered as the ultimate combination vaccine for routine immunization. This product review evaluates potential hexavalent vaccine candidates by composition, probable time to market, expected cost of goods, presentation, and technical feasibility and offers suggestions for development of low-cost hexavalent combination vaccines. Because there are significant technical challenges facing wP-based hexavalent vaccine development, this review also discusses other alternative approaches to hexavalent that could also ensure a timely and reliable supply of low-cost IPV based combination vaccines. PMID:23787559

Real estate ads in Emei music frog vocalizations: female preference for calls emanating from burrows.

PubMed

Cui, Jianguo; Tang, Yezhong; Narins, Peter M

2012-06-23

During female mate choice, both the male's phenotype and resources (e.g. his nest) contribute to the chooser's fitness. Animals other than humans are not known to advertise resource characteristics to potential mates through vocal communication; although in some species of anurans and birds, females do evaluate male qualities through vocal communication. Here, we demonstrate that calls of the male Emei music frog (Babina dauchina), vocalizing from male-built nests, reflect nest structure information that can be recognized by females. Inside-nest calls consisted of notes with energy concentrated at lower frequency ranges and longer note durations when compared with outside-nest calls. Centre frequencies and note durations of the inside calls positively correlate with the area of the burrow entrance and the depth of the burrow, respectively. When given a choice between outside and inside calls played back alternately, more than 70 per cent of the females (33/47) chose inside calls. These results demonstrate that males of this species faithfully advertise whether or not they possess a nest to potential mates by vocal communication, which probably facilitates optimal mate selection by females. These results revealed a novel function of advertisement calls, which is consistent with the wide variation in both call complexity and social behaviour within amphibians.

Hexavalent IPV-based combination vaccines for public-sector markets of low-resource countries.

PubMed

Mahmood, Kutub; Pelkowski, Sonia; Atherly, Deborah; Sitrin, Robert D; Donnelly, John J

2013-09-01

In anticipation of the successful eradication of wild polio virus, alternative vaccination strategies for public-sector markets of low-resource countries are extremely important, but are still under development. Following polio eradication, inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) would be the only polio vaccine available, and would be needed for early childhood immunization for several years, as maintenance of herd immunity will be important for sustaining polio eradication. Low-cost combination vaccines containing IPV could provide reliable and continuous immunization in the post-polio eradication period. Combination vaccines can potentially simplify complex pediatric routine immunization schedules, improve compliance, and reduce costs. Hexavalent vaccines containing Diphtheria (D), Tetanus (T), whole cell pertussis (wP), Hepatitis B (HBV), Haemophilus b (Hib) and the three IPV serotype antigens have been considered as the ultimate combination vaccine for routine immunization. This product review evaluates potential hexavalent vaccine candidates by composition, probable time to market, expected cost of goods, presentation, and technical feasibility and offers suggestions for development of low-cost hexavalent combination vaccines. Because there are significant technical challenges facing wP-based hexavalent vaccine development, this review also discusses other alternative approaches to hexavalent that could also ensure a timely and reliable supply of low-cost IPV based combination vaccines.

Information Use Differences in Hot and Cold Risk Processing: When Does Information About Probability Count in the Columbia Card Task?

PubMed

Markiewicz, Łukasz; Kubińska, Elżbieta

2015-01-01

This paper aims to provide insight into information processing differences between hot and cold risk taking decision tasks within a single domain. Decision theory defines risky situations using at least three parameters: outcome one (often a gain) with its probability and outcome two (often a loss) with a complementary probability. Although a rational agent should consider all of the parameters, s/he could potentially narrow their focus to only some of them, particularly when explicit Type 2 processes do not have the resources to override implicit Type 1 processes. Here we investigate differences in risky situation parameters' influence on hot and cold decisions. Although previous studies show lower information use in hot than in cold processes, they do not provide decision weight changes and therefore do not explain whether this difference results from worse concentration on each parameter of a risky situation (probability, gain amount, and loss amount) or from ignoring some parameters. Two studies were conducted, with participants performing the Columbia Card Task (CCT) in either its Cold or Hot version. In the first study, participants also performed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to monitor their ability to override Type 1 processing cues (implicit processes) with Type 2 explicit processes. Because hypothesis testing required comparison of the relative importance of risky situation decision weights (gain, loss, probability), we developed a novel way of measuring information use in the CCT by employing a conjoint analysis methodology. Across the two studies, results indicated that in the CCT Cold condition decision makers concentrate on each information type (gain, loss, probability), but in the CCT Hot condition they concentrate mostly on a single parameter: probability of gain/loss. We also show that an individual's CRT score correlates with information use propensity in cold but not hot tasks. Thus, the affective dimension of hot tasks inhibits correct information processing, probably because it is difficult to engage Type 2 processes in such circumstances. Individuals' Type 2 processing abilities (measured by the CRT) assist greater use of information in cold tasks but do not help in hot tasks.

Information Use Differences in Hot and Cold Risk Processing: When Does Information About Probability Count in the Columbia Card Task?

PubMed Central

Markiewicz, Łukasz; Kubińska, Elżbieta

2015-01-01

Objective: This paper aims to provide insight into information processing differences between hot and cold risk taking decision tasks within a single domain. Decision theory defines risky situations using at least three parameters: outcome one (often a gain) with its probability and outcome two (often a loss) with a complementary probability. Although a rational agent should consider all of the parameters, s/he could potentially narrow their focus to only some of them, particularly when explicit Type 2 processes do not have the resources to override implicit Type 1 processes. Here we investigate differences in risky situation parameters' influence on hot and cold decisions. Although previous studies show lower information use in hot than in cold processes, they do not provide decision weight changes and therefore do not explain whether this difference results from worse concentration on each parameter of a risky situation (probability, gain amount, and loss amount) or from ignoring some parameters. Methods: Two studies were conducted, with participants performing the Columbia Card Task (CCT) in either its Cold or Hot version. In the first study, participants also performed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to monitor their ability to override Type 1 processing cues (implicit processes) with Type 2 explicit processes. Because hypothesis testing required comparison of the relative importance of risky situation decision weights (gain, loss, probability), we developed a novel way of measuring information use in the CCT by employing a conjoint analysis methodology. Results: Across the two studies, results indicated that in the CCT Cold condition decision makers concentrate on each information type (gain, loss, probability), but in the CCT Hot condition they concentrate mostly on a single parameter: probability of gain/loss. We also show that an individual's CRT score correlates with information use propensity in cold but not hot tasks. Thus, the affective dimension of hot tasks inhibits correct information processing, probably because it is difficult to engage Type 2 processes in such circumstances. Individuals' Type 2 processing abilities (measured by the CRT) assist greater use of information in cold tasks but do not help in hot tasks. PMID:26635652

Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

2011-01-01

Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages of the decision-making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating of resource management protocols reduces uncertainty and improves management decisions. One of the most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if a population of a species occurs in an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, and falsely declaring a species absent can cause improper conservation decisions or even extirpation of populations. We propose a method to design survey protocols for imperfectly detected species that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty in the detection process, is capable of quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into the decision-making process, allows periodic updates to the protocol, and permits resource managers to weigh the severity of consequences if the species is falsely declared absent. We developed our method using the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas), a threatened species precinctive to the Central Valley of California, as a case study. Survey date was negatively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake, and water temperature was positively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake at a sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing and duration of surveys, and water temperatures would allow resource managers to evaluate the probability that the giant gartersnake occurs at sampled sites where it is not detected. This information would also allow periodic updates and quantitative evaluation of changes to the giant gartersnake survey protocol. Because it naturally allows multiple sources of information and is predicated upon the idea of updating information, Bayesian analysis is well-suited to solving the problem of developing efficient sampling protocols for species of conservation concern.

Modeling and mapping the probability of occurrence of invasive wild pigs across the contiguous United States.

PubMed

McClure, Meredith L; Burdett, Christopher L; Farnsworth, Matthew L; Lutman, Mark W; Theobald, David M; Riggs, Philip D; Grear, Daniel A; Miller, Ryan S

2015-01-01

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa), also known as wild swine, feral pigs, or feral hogs, are one of the most widespread and successful invasive species around the world. Wild pigs have been linked to extensive and costly agricultural damage and present a serious threat to plant and animal communities due to their rooting behavior and omnivorous diet. We modeled the current distribution of wild pigs in the United States to better understand the physiological and ecological factors that may determine their invasive potential and to guide future study and eradication efforts. Using national-scale wild pig occurrence data reported between 1982 and 2012 by wildlife management professionals, we estimated the probability of wild pig occurrence across the United States using a logistic discrimination function and environmental covariates hypothesized to influence the distribution of the species. Our results suggest the distribution of wild pigs in the U.S. was most strongly limited by cold temperatures and availability of water, and that they were most likely to occur where potential home ranges had higher habitat heterogeneity, providing access to multiple key resources including water, forage, and cover. High probability of occurrence was also associated with frequent high temperatures, up to a high threshold. However, this pattern is driven by pigs' historic distribution in warm climates of the southern U.S. Further study of pigs' ability to persist in cold northern climates is needed to better understand whether low temperatures actually limit their distribution. Our model highlights areas at risk of invasion as those with habitat conditions similar to those found in pigs' current range that are also near current populations. This study provides a macro-scale approach to generalist species distribution modeling that is applicable to other generalist and invasive species.

Bayesian updating in a fault tree model for shipwreck risk assessment.

PubMed

Landquist, H; Rosén, L; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M

2017-07-15

Shipwrecks containing oil and other hazardous substances have been deteriorating on the seabeds of the world for many years and are threatening to pollute the marine environment. The status of the wrecks and the potential volume of harmful substances present in the wrecks are affected by a multitude of uncertainties. Each shipwreck poses a unique threat, the nature of which is determined by the structural status of the wreck and possible damage resulting from hazardous activities that could potentially cause a discharge. Decision support is required to ensure the efficiency of the prioritisation process and the allocation of resources required to carry out risk mitigation measures. Whilst risk assessments can provide the requisite decision support, comprehensive methods that take into account key uncertainties related to shipwrecks are limited. The aim of this paper was to develop a method for estimating the probability of discharge of hazardous substances from shipwrecks. The method is based on Bayesian updating of generic information on the hazards posed by different activities in the surroundings of the wreck, with information on site-specific and wreck-specific conditions in a fault tree model. Bayesian updating is performed using Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the probability of a discharge of hazardous substances and formal handling of intrinsic uncertainties. An example application involving two wrecks located off the Swedish coast is presented. Results show the estimated probability of opening, discharge and volume of the discharge for the two wrecks and illustrate the capability of the model to provide decision support. Together with consequence estimations of a discharge of hazardous substances, the suggested model enables comprehensive and probabilistic risk assessments of shipwrecks to be made. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SOCR: Statistics Online Computational Resource

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.

2011-01-01

The need for hands-on computer laboratory experience in undergraduate and graduate statistics education has been firmly established in the past decade. As a result a number of attempts have been undertaken to develop novel approaches for problem-driven statistical thinking, data analysis and result interpretation. In this paper we describe an integrated educational web-based framework for: interactive distribution modeling, virtual online probability experimentation, statistical data analysis, visualization and integration. Following years of experience in statistical teaching at all college levels using established licensed statistical software packages, like STATA, S-PLUS, R, SPSS, SAS, Systat, etc., we have attempted to engineer a new statistics education environment, the Statistics Online Computational Resource (SOCR). This resource performs many of the standard types of statistical analysis, much like other classical tools. In addition, it is designed in a plug-in object-oriented architecture and is completely platform independent, web-based, interactive, extensible and secure. Over the past 4 years we have tested, fine-tuned and reanalyzed the SOCR framework in many of our undergraduate and graduate probability and statistics courses and have evidence that SOCR resources build student’s intuition and enhance their learning. PMID:21451741

Eliciting preferences for social health insurance in Ethiopia: a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Obse, Amarech; Ryan, Mandy; Heidenreich, Sebastian; Normand, Charles; Hailemariam, Damen

2016-12-01

As low-income countries are initiating health insurance schemes, Ethiopia is also planning to move away from out-of-pocket private payments to health insurance. The success of such a policy depends on understanding and predicting preferences of potential enrolees. This is because a scarce health care budget forces providers and consumers to make trade-offs between potential benefits within a health insurance. An assessment of preferences of potential enrolees can therefore add important information to optimal resource allocation in the design of health insurance. We used a discrete choice experiment to elicit preferences for social health insurance (SHI) among formal sector employees in Ethiopia. Respondents were presented with 18 binary hypothetical choices of SHI. Each insurance package was described by eight policy relevant attributes: premium, enrolment, exclusions, providers and coverage of inpatient services, outpatient services, drugs and tests. A mixed logit model was estimated to determine respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) for the different health insurance attributes. We also predicted probabilities of uptake for alternative SHI scenarios. Health insurance packages with 'no exclusions', 'public and private' providers, low rate of premium and full coverage of tests and drugs were highly valued and had greatest impact on the choices . Other things being equal, respondents were willing to contribute 1.52% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71, 2.32) of their salary to a SHI package with no service exclusions having public and private service providers. This is substantially lower than the proposed 3% premium in the draft SHI strategy. For the typical SHI package proposed by the SHI strategy at the time, the uptake probability was predicted to be 29% (95% CI: 0.25, 0.33). The low uptake probability and WTP for the proposed SHI package suggests considering preferences of the potential enrolees' in revisions of the draft SHI strategy for introduction of optimal SHI scheme would enhance acceptance. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Watching sexy displays improves hatching success and offspring growth through maternal allocation.

PubMed

Loyau, Adeline; Lacroix, Frédéric

2010-11-22

Male attractiveness can have tremendous effects on the fitness of his offspring via good genes, but also via enhanced maternal allocation of resources. Yet the proximate mechanisms influencing differential maternal allocation in relation to male sexiness are poorly known. Here, we studied the importance of visual stimulation for maternal allocation in the Houbara bustard, a vulnerable bird species bred in captivity to support wild populations. Artificial insemination allowed controlling for potential confounding factors, such as a male's territory quality, social interactions or sperm quality/quantity, probably linked to mate attractiveness. We show that artificially inseminated females stimulated by highly displaying males increased their hatching success, owing to increased fertilization success. The females also increased the allocation of maternal androgens in their eggs, leading to an increase of circulating testosterone and growth rate in chicks. Hence, visual stimulation of the females can promote differential maternal allocation and favour offspring fitness. Our results further suggest that using artificial insemination for species conservation without appropriate stimulation of the breeding females probably has negative impacts on their breeding performance and therefore on population viability.

Geothermal resources of the western arm of the Black Rock Desert, northwestern Nevada; Part I, geology and geophysics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaefer, Donald H.; Welch, Alan H.; Mauzer, Douglas K.

1983-01-01

Studies of the geothermal potential of the western arm of the Black Rock Desert in northwestern Nevada included a compilation of existing geologic data on a detailed map, a temperature survey at 1-meter depth, a thermal-scanner survey, and gravity and seismic surveys to determine basin geometry. The temperature survey showed the effects of heating at shallow depths due to rising geothermal fluids near the known hot spring areas. Lower temperatures were noted in areas of probable near-surface ground-water movement. The thermal-scanner survey verified the known geothermal areas and showed relatively high-temperature areas of standing water and ground-water discharge. The upland areas of the desert were found to be distinctly warmer than the playa area, probably due to low thermal diffusivity resulting from low moisture content. The surface geophysical surveys indicated that the maximum thickness of valley-fill deposits in the desert is about 3,200 meters. Gravity data further showed that changes in the trend of the desert axis occurred near thermal areas. (USGS)

Complementarity between entanglement-assisted and quantum distributed random access code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hameedi, Alley; Saha, Debashis; Mironowicz, Piotr; Pawłowski, Marcin; Bourennane, Mohamed

2017-05-01

Collaborative communication tasks such as random access codes (RACs) employing quantum resources have manifested great potential in enhancing information processing capabilities beyond the classical limitations. The two quantum variants of RACs, namely, quantum random access code (QRAC) and the entanglement-assisted random access code (EARAC), have demonstrated equal prowess for a number of tasks. However, there do exist specific cases where one outperforms the other. In this article, we study a family of 3 →1 distributed RACs [J. Bowles, N. Brunner, and M. Pawłowski, Phys. Rev. A 92, 022351 (2015), 10.1103/PhysRevA.92.022351] and present its general construction of both the QRAC and the EARAC. We demonstrate that, depending on the function of inputs that is sought, if QRAC achieves the maximal success probability then EARAC fails to do so and vice versa. Moreover, a tripartite Bell-type inequality associated with the EARAC variants reveals the genuine multipartite nonlocality exhibited by our protocol. We conclude with an experimental realization of the 3 →1 distributed QRAC that achieves higher success probabilities than the maximum possible with EARACs for a number of tasks.

Comprehensive Renewable Energy Feasibility Study for Sealaska Corporation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robert Lynette; John Wade: Larry Coupe

2006-06-30

The purposes of this project were: (1) to conduct a comprehensive feasibility study to determine the potential sustainability of wind and/or small hydroelectric power plants on Southeast Alaska native village lands, and (2) to provide the villages with an understanding of the requirements, costs, and benefits of developing and operating wind or small hydroelectric power plants. The program was sponsored by the Tribal Energy program, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, US Department of Energy. The Contractor was Sealaska Corporation, the Regional Native Corporation for Southeast Alaska that includes 12 village/urban corporations. Most villages are isolated from any centralmore » electric transmission and use diesel-electric systems for power generation, making them prime candidates for deploying renewable energy sources. Wind Energy - A database was assembled for all of the candidate sites in SE Alaska, including location, demographics, electricity supply and demand, existing and planned transmission interties with central generation, topographical maps, macro wind data, and contact personnel. Field trips were conducted at the five candidate villages that were deemed most likely to have viable wind resources. Meetings were held with local village and utility leaders and the requirements, costs, and benefits of having local renewable energy facilities were discussed. Two sites were selected for anemometry based on their needs and the probability of having viable wind resources – Yakutat and Hoonah. Anemometry was installed at both sites and at least one year of wind resource data was collected from the sites. This data was compared to long-term data from the closest weather stations. Reports were prepared by meteorologist John Wade that contains the details of the measured wind resources and energy production projections. Preliminary financial analysis of hypothetical wind power stations were prepared to gauge the economic viability of installing such facilities at each site. The average wind resources measured at Yakutat at three sites were very marginal, with an annual average of 4.0 mps (9 mph) at 60 meters above ground level. At Hoonah, the average wind resources measured on the 1,417 ft elevation ridge above the village were very low, with a six-month average of 3.9 mps (8.7 mph) at 60 meters above ground level. The wind resources at both sites were not sufficient to justify installation of wind turbines. In summary, although there are several known windy spots in SE Alaska (e.g., Skagway), we were not able to identify any isolated Native American villages that utilize diesel-electric power generation that have commercially viable wind resources. Small Hydroelectric - The study focused on the communities associated with Sealaska Corporation that use diesel-electric for electricity and have a potential for hydroelectric power generation. Most of them have had at least an assessment of hydroelectric potential, and a few have had feasibility studies of potential hydroelectric projects. Although none of the sites examined are financially viable without substantial grant funding, Hoonah, Kake, and Yakutat appear to have the best potential for new hydro facilities.« less

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Hydraulic Fracturing in Unconventional Reservoirs by Means of Fault Tree Analysis: An Initial Discussion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodak, C. M.; McHugh, R.; Wei, X.

2016-12-01

The development and combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked unconventional hydrocarbon reserves around the globe. These advances have triggered a number of concerns regarding aquifer contamination and over-exploitation, leading to scientific studies investigating potential risks posed by directional hydraulic fracturing activities. These studies, balanced with potential economic benefits of energy production, are a crucial source of information for communities considering the development of unconventional reservoirs. However, probabilistic quantification of the overall risk posed by hydraulic fracturing at the system level are rare. Here we present the concept of fault tree analysis to determine the overall probability of groundwater contamination or over-exploitation, broadly referred to as the probability of failure. The potential utility of fault tree analysis for the quantification and communication of risks is approached with a general application. However, the fault tree design is robust and can handle various combinations of regional-specific data pertaining to relevant spatial scales, geological conditions, and industry practices where available. All available data are grouped into quantity and quality-based impacts and sub-divided based on the stage of the hydraulic fracturing process in which the data is relevant as described by the USEPA. Each stage is broken down into the unique basic events required for failure; for example, to quantify the risk of an on-site spill we must consider the likelihood, magnitude, composition, and subsurface transport of the spill. The structure of the fault tree described above can be used to render a highly complex system of variables into a straightforward equation for risk calculation based on Boolean logic. This project shows the utility of fault tree analysis for the visual communication of the potential risks of hydraulic fracturing activities on groundwater resources.

Construction of a Risk Assessment Model for Rainfall-Induced Landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chung

2013-04-01

The unstable geology and steep terrain in the mountainous regions of Taiwan make these areas vulnerable to landslides and debris flow during typhoons and heavy rains. According to the Water Resources Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan, there were 500 typhoons and over one thousand storms in Taiwan between 1897 and 2011. Natural disasters caused 3.5 billion USD of damage between 1983 and 2011. Thus, the construction of risk assessment model for landslides is essential to disaster prevention. This study employed genetic adaptive neural networks (GANN) with texture analysis in the classification of high-resolution satellite images from which data related to surface conditions in mountainous areas of Taiwan were derived. Ten landslide hazard potential factors are included: slope, geology, elevation, distance from the fault, distance from water, terrain roughness, slope roughness, effective accumulated rainfall and developing situation. By using correlation test, GANN, weight analysis and dangerous value method, levels and probabilities of landslide of the research areas are presented. Then, through geographic information system the landslide potential map is plotted to distinguish high potential regions from low potential regions. Through field surveys, interviews with district officials and a review of relevant literature, the probability of a sediment disaster was estimated as well as the vulnerability of the villages concerned and the degree to which these villages were prepared, to construct a risk evaluation model. The regional risk map was plotted with the help of GIS and the landslide assessment model. The risk assessment model can be used by authorities to make provisions for high-risk areas, to reduce the number of casualties and social costs of sediment disasters.

Flipping between Languages? An Exploratory Analysis of the Usage by Spanish-Speaking English Language Learner Tertiary Students of a Bilingual Probability Applet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lesser, Lawrence M.; Wagler, Amy E.; Salazar, Berenice

2016-01-01

English language learners (ELLs) are a rapidly growing part of the student population in many countries. Studies on resources for language learners--especially Spanish-speaking ELLs--have focused on areas such as reading, writing, and mathematics, but not introductory probability and statistics. Semi-structured qualitative interviews investigated…

Can you hear me now? Range-testing a submerged passive acoustic receiver array in a Caribbean coral reef habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selby, Thomas H.; Hart, Kristen M.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Smith, Brian J.; Pollock, Clayton J; Hillis-Star, Zandy M; Lundgren, Ian; Oli, Madan K.

2016-01-01

Submerged passive acoustic technology allows researchers to investigate spatial and temporal movement patterns of many marine and freshwater species. The technology uses receivers to detect and record acoustic transmissions emitted from tags attached to an individual. Acoustic signal strength naturally attenuates over distance, but numerous environmental variables also affect the probability a tag is detected. Knowledge of receiver range is crucial for designing acoustic arrays and analyzing telemetry data. Here, we present a method for testing a relatively large-scale receiver array in a dynamic Caribbean coastal environment intended for long-term monitoring of multiple species. The U.S. Geological Survey and several academic institutions in collaboration with resource management at Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM), off the coast of St. Croix, recently deployed a 52 passive acoustic receiver array. We targeted 19 array-representative receivers for range-testing by submersing fixed delay interval range-testing tags at various distance intervals in each cardinal direction from a receiver for a minimum of an hour. Using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), we estimated the probability of detection across the array and assessed the effect of water depth, habitat, wind, temperature, and time of day on the probability of detection. The predicted probability of detection across the entire array at 100 m distance from a receiver was 58.2% (95% CI: 44.0–73.0%) and dropped to 26.0% (95% CI: 11.4–39.3%) 200 m from a receiver indicating a somewhat constrained effective detection range. Detection probability varied across habitat classes with the greatest effective detection range occurring in homogenous sand substrate and the smallest in high rugosity reef. Predicted probability of detection across BIRNM highlights potential gaps in coverage using the current array as well as limitations of passive acoustic technology within a complex coral reef environment.

Subliminal Emotional Words Impact Syntactic Processing: Evidence from Performance and Event-Related Brain Potentials.

PubMed

Jiménez-Ortega, Laura; Espuny, Javier; de Tejada, Pilar Herreros; Vargas-Rivero, Carolina; Martín-Loeches, Manuel

2017-01-01

Recent studies demonstrate that syntactic processing can be affected by emotional information and that subliminal emotional information can also affect cognitive processes. In this study, we explore whether unconscious emotional information may also impact syntactic processing. In an Event-Related brain Potential (ERP) study, positive, neutral and negative subliminal adjectives were inserted within neutral sentences, just before the presentation of the supraliminal adjective. They could either be correct (50%) or contain a morphosyntactic violation (number or gender disagreements). Larger error rates were observed for incorrect sentences than for correct ones, in contrast to most studies using supraliminal information. Strikingly, emotional adjectives affected the conscious syntactic processing of sentences containing morphosyntactic anomalies. The neutral condition elicited left anterior negativity (LAN) followed by a P600 component. However, a lack of anterior negativity and an early P600 onset for the negative condition were found, probably as a result of the negative subliminal correct adjective capturing early syntactic resources. Positive masked adjectives in turn prompted an N400 component in response to morphosyntactic violations, probably reflecting the induction of a heuristic processing mode involving access to lexico-semantic information to solve agreement anomalies. Our results add to recent evidence on the impact of emotional information on syntactic processing, while showing that this can occur even when the reader is unaware of the emotional stimuli.

Subliminal Emotional Words Impact Syntactic Processing: Evidence from Performance and Event-Related Brain Potentials

PubMed Central

Jiménez-Ortega, Laura; Espuny, Javier; de Tejada, Pilar Herreros; Vargas-Rivero, Carolina; Martín-Loeches, Manuel

2017-01-01

Recent studies demonstrate that syntactic processing can be affected by emotional information and that subliminal emotional information can also affect cognitive processes. In this study, we explore whether unconscious emotional information may also impact syntactic processing. In an Event-Related brain Potential (ERP) study, positive, neutral and negative subliminal adjectives were inserted within neutral sentences, just before the presentation of the supraliminal adjective. They could either be correct (50%) or contain a morphosyntactic violation (number or gender disagreements). Larger error rates were observed for incorrect sentences than for correct ones, in contrast to most studies using supraliminal information. Strikingly, emotional adjectives affected the conscious syntactic processing of sentences containing morphosyntactic anomalies. The neutral condition elicited left anterior negativity (LAN) followed by a P600 component. However, a lack of anterior negativity and an early P600 onset for the negative condition were found, probably as a result of the negative subliminal correct adjective capturing early syntactic resources. Positive masked adjectives in turn prompted an N400 component in response to morphosyntactic violations, probably reflecting the induction of a heuristic processing mode involving access to lexico-semantic information to solve agreement anomalies. Our results add to recent evidence on the impact of emotional information on syntactic processing, while showing that this can occur even when the reader is unaware of the emotional stimuli. PMID:28487640

Assessments of Wind-Energy Potential in Selected Sites from Three Geopolitical Zones in Nigeria: Implications for Renewable/Sustainable Rural Electrification

PubMed Central

Okeniyi, Joshua Olusegun; Ohunakin, Olayinka Soledayo; Okeniyi, Elizabeth Toyin

2015-01-01

Electricity generation in rural communities is an acute problem militating against socioeconomic well-being of the populace in these communities in developing countries, including Nigeria. In this paper, assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three major geopolitical zones of Nigeria were investigated. For this, daily wind-speed data from Katsina in northern, Warri in southwestern and Calabar in southeastern Nigeria were analysed using the Gumbel and the Weibull probability distributions for assessing wind-energy potential as a renewable/sustainable solution for the country's rural-electrification problems. Results showed that the wind-speed models identified Katsina with higher wind-speed class than both Warri and Calabar that were otherwise identified as low wind-speed sites. However, econometrics of electricity power simulation at different hub heights of low wind-speed turbine systems showed that the cost of electric-power generation in the three study sites was converging to affordable cost per kWh of electric energy from the wind resource at each site. These power simulations identified cost/kWh of electricity generation at Kaduna as €0.0507, at Warri as €0.0774, and at Calabar as €0.0819. These bare positive implications on renewable/sustainable rural electrification in the study sites even as requisite options for promoting utilization of this viable wind-resource energy in the remote communities in the environs of the study sites were suggested. PMID:25879063

Assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three geopolitical zones in Nigeria: implications for renewable/sustainable rural electrification.

PubMed

Okeniyi, Joshua Olusegun; Ohunakin, Olayinka Soledayo; Okeniyi, Elizabeth Toyin

2015-01-01

Electricity generation in rural communities is an acute problem militating against socioeconomic well-being of the populace in these communities in developing countries, including Nigeria. In this paper, assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three major geopolitical zones of Nigeria were investigated. For this, daily wind-speed data from Katsina in northern, Warri in southwestern and Calabar in southeastern Nigeria were analysed using the Gumbel and the Weibull probability distributions for assessing wind-energy potential as a renewable/sustainable solution for the country's rural-electrification problems. Results showed that the wind-speed models identified Katsina with higher wind-speed class than both Warri and Calabar that were otherwise identified as low wind-speed sites. However, econometrics of electricity power simulation at different hub heights of low wind-speed turbine systems showed that the cost of electric-power generation in the three study sites was converging to affordable cost per kWh of electric energy from the wind resource at each site. These power simulations identified cost/kWh of electricity generation at Kaduna as €0.0507, at Warri as €0.0774, and at Calabar as €0.0819. These bare positive implications on renewable/sustainable rural electrification in the study sites even as requisite options for promoting utilization of this viable wind-resource energy in the remote communities in the environs of the study sites were suggested.

Is there a metric for mineral deposit occurrence probabilities?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drew, L.J.; Menzie, W.D.

1993-01-01

Traditionally, mineral resource assessments have been used to estimate the physical inventory of critical and strategic mineral commodities that occur in pieces of land and to assess the consequences of supply disruptions of these commodities. More recently, these assessments have been used to estimate the undiscovered mineral wealth in such pieces of land to assess the opportunity cost of using the land for purposes other than mineral production. The field of mineral resource assessment is an interdisciplinary field that draws elements from the disciplines of geology, economic geology (descriptive models), statistics and management science (grade and tonnage models), mineral economics, and operations research (computer simulation models). The purpose of this study is to assert that an occurrenceprobability metric exists that is useful in "filling out" an assessment both for areas in which only a trivial probability exists that a new mining district could be present and for areas where nontrivial probabilities exist for such districts. ?? 1993 Oxford University Press.

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

PubMed

Stott, Peter A; Christidis, Nikolaos; Otto, Friederike E L; Sun, Ying; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Vautard, Robert; von Storch, Hans; Walton, Peter; Yiou, Pascal; Zwiers, Francis W

2016-01-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Resource Loss Moderates the Association Between Child Abuse and Current PTSD Symptoms Among Women in Primary-Care Settings.

PubMed

Costa, Eleonora C V; Guimarães, Sara; Ferreira, Domingos; Pereira, M Graça

2016-09-01

This study examined if abuse during childhood, rape in adulthood, and loss of resources predict a woman's probability of reporting symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and whether resource loss moderates the association between reporting childhood abuse and PTSD symptoms. The sample included 767 women and was collected in publicly funded primary-care settings. Women who reported having been abused during childhood also reported more resource loss, more acute PTSD symptoms, and having suffered more adult rape than those who reported no childhood abuse. Hierarchical logistic regression yielded a two-variable additive model in which child abuse and adult rape predict the probability of reporting or not any PTSD symptoms, explaining 59.7% of the variance. Women abused as children were 1 to 2 times more likely to report PTSD symptoms, with sexual abuse during childhood contributing most strongly to this result. Similarly, women reporting adult rape were almost twice as likely to report symptoms of PTSD as those not reporting it. Resource loss was unexpectedly not among the predictors but a moderation analysis showed that such loss moderated the association between child abuse and current PTSD symptoms, with resource loss increasing the number and severity of PTSD symptoms in women who also reported childhood abuse. The findings highlight the importance of early assessment and intervention in providing mental health care to abused, neglected, and impoverished women to help them prevent and reverse resource loss and revictimization.

System complexity as a measure of safe capacity for the emergency department.

PubMed

France, Daniel J; Levin, Scott

2006-11-01

System complexity is introduced as a new measure of system state for the emergency department (ED). In its original form, the measure quantifies the uncertainty of demands on system resources. For application in the ED, the measure is being modified to quantify both workload and uncertainty to produce a single integrated measure of system state. Complexity is quantified using an information-theoretic or entropic approach developed in manufacturing and operations research. In its original form, complexity is calculated on the basis of four system parameters: 1) the number of resources (clinicians and processing entities such as radiology and laboratory systems), 2) the number of possible work states for each resource, 3) the probability that a resource is in a particular work state, and 4) the probability of queue changes (i.e., where a queue is defined by the number of patients or patient orders being managed by a resource) during a specified time period. An example is presented to demonstrate how complexity is calculated and interpreted for a simple system composed of three resources (i.e., emergency physicians) managing varying patient loads. The example shows that variation in physician work states and patient queues produces different scores of complexity for each physician. It also illustrates how complexity and workload differ. System complexity is a viable and technically feasible measurement for monitoring and managing surge capacity in the ED.

Faithful Transfer Arbitrary Pure States with Mixed Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Ming-Xing; Li, Lin; Ma, Song-Ya; Chen, Xiu-Bo; Yang, Yi-Xian

2013-09-01

In this paper, we show that some special mixed quantum resource experience the same property of pure entanglement such as Bell state for quantum teleportation. It is shown that one mixed state and three bits of classical communication cost can be used to teleport one unknown qubit compared with two bits via pure resources. The schemes are easily implement with model physical techniques. Moreover, these resources are also optimal and typical for faithfully remotely prepare an arbitrary qubit, two-qubit and three-qubit states with mixed quantum resources. Our schemes are completed as same as those with pure quantum entanglement resources except only 1 bit additional classical communication cost required. The success probability is independent of the form of the mixed resources.

Health Insurance Enrollment and Availability of Medications for Substance Use Disorders.

PubMed

Abraham, Amanda J; Rieckmann, Traci; Andrews, Christina M; Jayawardhana, Jayani

2017-01-01

Medications for treatment of substance use disorders are underutilized in treatment programs in the United States. Little is known about how insurance enrollment within states affects treatment program decisions about whether to offer medications. The primary objective of the study was to examine the impact of health insurance enrollment on availability of substance use disorder medications among treatment programs. Data from the 2012 National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services, National Survey on Drug Use and Health, American Community Survey, Area Health Resource File, and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration were combined to examine the impact of state insurance enrollment on availability of substance use disorder medications in treatment programs (N=9,888). A two-level, random-intercept logistic regression model was estimated to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity among treatment programs nested in states. The percentage of state residents with employer-based insurance and Medicaid was associated with greater odds of offering at least one medication among treatment programs. A 5% increase in the rate of private insurance enrollment was associated with a 7.7% increase in the probability of offering at least one medication, and a 5% increase in the rate of state Medicaid enrollment was associated with a 9.3% increase in the probability of offering at least one medication. Results point to the potential significance of health insurance enrollment in shaping the availability of substance use disorder medications. Significant expansions in health insurance enrollment spurred by the Affordable Care Act have the potential to increase access to medications for many Americans.

Thinking like a duck: fall lake use and movement patterns of juvenile ring-necked ducks before migration.

PubMed

Roy, Charlotte L; Fieberg, John; Scharenbroich, Christopher; Herwig, Christine M

2014-01-01

The post-fledging period is one of the least studied portions of the annual cycle in waterfowl. Yet, recruitment into the breeding population requires that young birds have sufficient resources to survive this period. We used radio-telemetry and generalized estimating equations to examine support for four hypotheses regarding the drivers of landscape scale habitat use and movements made by juvenile ring-necked ducks between the pre-fledging period and departure for migration. Our response variables included the probability of movement, distances moved, and use of different lake types: brood-rearing lakes, staging lakes, and lakes with low potential for disturbance. Birds increased their use of staging areas and lakes with low potential for disturbance (i.e., without houses or boat accesses, >100 m from roads, or big lakes with areas where birds could sit undisturbed) throughout the fall, but these changes began before the start of the hunting season and their trajectory was not changed by the onset of hunting. Males and females moved similar distances and had similar probabilities of movements each week. However, females were more likely than males to use brood-rearing lakes later in the fall. Our findings suggest juvenile ring-necked ducks require different lake types throughout the fall, and managing solely for breeding habitat will be insufficient for meeting needs during the post-fledging period. Maintaining areas with low potential for disturbance and areas suitable for staging will ensure that ring-necked ducks have access to habitat throughout the fall.

The fourth dimension in FIA

Treesearch

Francis A. Roesch

2012-01-01

In the past, the goal of forest inventory was to determine the extent of the timber resource. Predictions of how the resource was changing were made by comparing differences between successive inventories. The general view of the associated sample design included selection probabilities based on land area observed at a discrete point in time. That is, time was not...

Space exploration outlook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rea, D. G.

1984-01-01

The exploration of the solar system has been one of NASA's most significant achievements. Currently Voyager 2 is on its way to Uranus and Neptune, and Galileo is being readied for detailed investigation of Jupiter and its Galilean satellites. A new phase of exploration will be inaugurated in the mid-80s with the start of the Planetary Observers and Mariner Mark II missions. A major thrust during this phase will be to cut mission costs by emphasizing spacecraft inheritance and multi-mission automated mission operations. More ambitious missions, e.g., Mars Sample Return, are under study but probably will not be candidates for new start funding till the mid-90s. Another exciting area is the potential utilization of resources on the moon and near earth asteroids.

Probabilistic objective functions for sensor management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahler, Ronald P. S.; Zajic, Tim R.

2004-08-01

This paper continues the investigation of a foundational and yet potentially practical basis for control-theoretic sensor management, using a comprehensive, intuitive, system-level Bayesian paradigm based on finite-set statistics (FISST). In this paper we report our most recent progress, focusing on multistep look-ahead -- i.e., allocation of sensor resources throughout an entire future time-window. We determine future sensor states in the time-window using a "probabilistically natural" sensor management objective function, the posterior expected number of targets (PENT). This objective function is constructed using a new "maxi-PIMS" optimization strategy that hedges against unknowable future observation-collections. PENT is used in conjuction with approximate multitarget filters: the probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter or the multi-hypothesis correlator (MHC) filter.

JACK CREEK BASIN, MONTANA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kiilsgaard, Thor H.; Van Noy, Ronald M.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey of the Jack Creek basin area in Montana revealed that phosphate rock underlies the basin. The phosphate rock is in thin beds that dip steeply and are broken and offset by faults. These features plus the rugged topography of the region would make mining difficult; however, this study finds the area to have a probable mineral-resource potential for phosphate. Sedimentary rock formations favorable for oil and gas also underlie the basin. No oil or gas has been produced from the basin or from nearby areas in southwestern Montana, but oil and gas have been produced from the same favorable formations elsewhere in Montana. The possibility of oil and gas being produced from the basin is slight but it cannot be ignored.

Global tropospheric methane: An indication of atmosphere-biosphere-climate interactions?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harriss, Robert C.; Sebacher, Daniel I.; Bartlett, Karen B.

1985-01-01

Methane is an important atmospheric gas with potentially critical roles in both photochemical and radiation transfer processes. A major natural source of atmospheric methane involves anaerobic fermentation of organic materials in wetland soils and sediments. A data base of field measurements of atmospheric methane was used in the development of a global methane emissions inventory. Calculations support the following hypotheses: (1) Human activities currently produce methane at a rate approximately equal to natural resources (these rapidly increasing anthropogenic sources can explain most of the recent increase observed in tropospheric methane); and (2) Prior to 200 B.P. (before the present), the influence of climate on wetland extent and distribution was probably a dominant factor controlling global biogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere.

Cluster State Quantum Computing

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

probability that the desired target gate ATar has been faithfully implemented on the computational modes given a successful measurement of the ancilla...modes: () = �(†)� 2 2(†) , (3) since Tr ( ATar † ATar )=2Mc for a properly normalized target gate. As we are interested...optimization method we have developed maximizes the success probability S for a given target transformation ATar , for given ancilla resources, and for a

Randomized trial of computerized quantitative pretest probability in low-risk chest pain patients: effect on safety and resource use.

PubMed

Kline, Jeffrey A; Zeitouni, Raghid A; Hernandez-Nino, Jackeline; Jones, Alan E

2009-06-01

We hypothesize that the presentation of a quantitative pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome would safely reduce unnecessary resource use in low-risk emergency department (ED) chest pain patients. Randomized controlled trial of adult patients with chest pain paired with their clinicians. Patients had neither obvious evidence of acute coronary syndrome nor obvious other reason for admission. Clinicans provided their unstructured point estimate for pretest probability before randomization. Clinicans and patients in the intervention group received a printout of pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome result displayed numerically and graphically. Controls received no printout. Patients were followed for 45 days for predefined criteria of acute coronary syndrome and efficacy endpoints. Endpoints were compared between groups, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for differences. Four hundred were enrolled, and 31 were excluded for cocaine use or elopement from care. The mean pretest probability estimates of acute coronary syndrome were 4 (SD 5%) from clinicians and 4 (SD 6%) from the computer. Safety and efficacy endpoints for controls (n=185) versus intervention patients (n=184) were as follows: (1) delayed or missed diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome: 1 of 185 versus 0 of 184 (95% CI for difference -2.8% to 15.0%); (2) hospital admission with no significant cardiovascular diagnosis, 11% versus 5% (-0.2% to 11%); (3) thoracic imaging imparting greater than 5 mSv radiation with a negative result, 20% versus 9% (95% CI for difference = 3.8% to 18.0%); (4) median length of stay, 11.4 hours versus 9.2 hours (95% CI for difference = -2.9 to 7.6 hours); (5) reported feeling "very satisfied" with clinician explanation of problem on follow-up survey, 38% versus 49% (95% CI for difference = 0.9% to 21.0%); (6) readmitted within 7 days, 11% versus 4% (95% CI for difference = 2.5% to 13.2%). Presentation of a quantitative estimate of the pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome to clinicians and low-risk ED chest pain patients was associated with reduced resource use, without evidence of increased rate of premature discharge of patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Large scale rainfall diversity and satellite propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, H. P.; Vogel, W. J.

1992-01-01

From the NOAA 15 minute precipitation file for the U.S., data was selected for 128 stations covering a 17 year period and the probability of simultaneous rainfall at several stations was calculated. We assumed that the chosen stations were located in separate beams of a multi-beam communications satellite with shared fade mitigation resources. In order to estimate the demands made on these resources, we determined the number of stations at which rainfall rates exceeded 10 to 40 mm/hr. We found a 1 percent probability that at least 5 of the 128 stations have rain at or over 10 mm/hr in any 15 minute interval. Rain at 2 stations was found to correlate over distances less than about 600 miles.

Differentiated protection services with failure probability guarantee for workflow-based applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Jin, Yaohui; Sun, Weiqiang; Hu, Weisheng

2010-12-01

A cost-effective and service-differentiated provisioning strategy is very desirable to service providers so that they can offer users satisfactory services, while optimizing network resource allocation. Providing differentiated protection services to connections for surviving link failure has been extensively studied in recent years. However, the differentiated protection services for workflow-based applications, which consist of many interdependent tasks, have scarcely been studied. This paper investigates the problem of providing differentiated services for workflow-based applications in optical grid. In this paper, we develop three differentiated protection services provisioning strategies which can provide security level guarantee and network-resource optimization for workflow-based applications. The simulation demonstrates that these heuristic algorithms provide protection cost-effectively while satisfying the applications' failure probability requirements.

Trends in the development of industrially assimilated renewable energy: the problem of resource restrictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nizhegorodtsev, R. M.; Ratner, S. V.

2016-03-01

An analysis of the dynamics of the development of wind and solar energy and potential resource restrictions of the dissemination of these technologies of energy generation associated with intensive use of rare earth metals and some other mineral resources are presented. The technological prospects of various directions of decisions of the problem of resource restrictions, including escalating of volumes of extraction and production of necessary mineral components, creating substitutes of scarce materials and development of recycling are considered. The bottlenecks of each of the above-mentioned decisions were founded. Conclusions are drawn on the prospects of development of the Russian high-tech sectors of the economy in the context of the most probable decisions of the problem of resource restrictions of wind and solar energy. An increase in extraction and production of rare earth metals and some other materials, stimulation of domestic research and development (R&D) to create the permanent magnets of new types and new technologies of wind-powered generation, and reduction of the resource-demand and technology development of recycling the components of power equipment are the most prospective directions of progress. The innovations in these directions will be in demand on the European, Chinese, and North American markets in the near decades due to the end of the life cycle (approximately 30 years) of wind and solar energy projects started at the turn of the 20th-21st centuries (the beginning of exponential growth in plants). The private investors and relevant regional and federal government agencies can use the qualitative characteristics of the dynamics of industrially assimilated renewable energy to choose the most promising investment orientations in energy projects and selection of the most economically sound development methods of energy and related industries.

Using info-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korteling, B.; Brazier, R.; Kapelan, Z.; Dessai, S.

2012-12-01

Water resource managers are required to develop comprehensive water resource plans based on severely uncertain information of the effects of climate change on local hydrology and future socio-economic changes on localised demand. In England and Wales, current water resource planning methodologies include a headroom estimation process that quantifies uncertainty based on only one point of an assumed range of deviations from the expected climate and projected demand 25 years into the future. There are many situations where there is not enough knowledge to be able to estimate a representative probability of occurrence, or to be confident that the tails of an assumed probability distribution will not exhibit unexpected skewness, or that the kurtosis of a distribution differs from the norm. These situations can be considered severely uncertain. Information-Gap decision theory offers a method to sample a wider range of uncertainty than with traditional methods, and as a result, compare the robustness of various water resource management options under conditions of severe uncertainty. A more robust management option is one that delivers the same level of performance as other options at higher levels of uncertainty. A case study is based on a Water Supply Area that encompasses the county of Cornwall in southwest England containing 17 reservoirs and 19 demand nodes. The performance success of management options are evaluated primarily by measures of water availability including a reservoir risk measure that tests the probability and magnitude that strategic reservoir storage levels fall below the drought management curve under adverse conditions and also a safety margin deficit that tests how quickly reservoir levels can return to optimum operating levels in favourable conditions. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is used to test the effectiveness of different management options with different weightings for metrics other than water availability including; capital and operating costs, costs to customers, carbon emissions, environmental impact and social acceptability. Findings show that beyond the uncertainty range explored with the traditional headroom method, preference reversals can occur, i.e. some management options that underperform at lower uncertainties, outperform at higher levels of uncertainty. This study also shows that when 50% or more of the population adopts demand side management, efficiency related measures and innovative options such as rainwater collection can perform equally well or better than some supply side options. The additional use of MCDA shifts the focus away from reservoir expansion options that perform best with respect to water availability, to combined strategies that include innovative demand side management actions of rainwater collection and greywater reuse as well as efficiency measures and additional regional transfers. This research illustrates how an Info-Gap based approach can offer a comprehensive picture of potential supply/demand futures and a rich variety of information to support adaptive management of water systems under severe uncertainty.

Sediment management and renewability of floodplain clay for structural ceramics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Meulen, M. J.; Wiersma, A. P.; Middelkoop, H.; van der Perk, M.; Bakker, M.; Maljers, D.; Hobo, N.; Makaske, B.

2009-04-01

The Netherlands have vast resources of clay that are exploited for the fabrication of structural ceramic products such as bricks and roof tiles. The extraction of clay creates land surface lowerings of about 1.5 m, of which the majority are located in the embanked floodplains of the rivers Rhine and Meuse. At these surface lowerings, clay is replenished within several decades. This study explores to which extent the clay can be regarded as a renewable resource, with potential for sustainable use. For this purpose, first the current and past clay consumption is calculated. Subsequently, clay deposition in the floodplains is estimated from literature data on clay accumulation using sediment traps, heavy metal and radionuclide distribution in soil profiles, and from morphological modelling studies. These estimates of clay-deposition and consumption are then compared following three approaches that consider various temporal and spatial scales of clay deposition. This allows us to establish the extent to which man determines sedimentary processes in the Dutch floodplains. Consequently, using the sediment response to the land surface lowering resulting from clay extraction, we explore sediment management options for the Dutch Rhine and Meuse. Altogether we argue that clay has been, probably is, and certainly can be managed as a renewable mineral resource.

Predictors of posttraumatic stress-related impairment in victims of terrorism and ongoing conflict in Israel.

PubMed

Chipman, Katie J; Palmieri, Patrick A; Canetti, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J; Hobfoll, Stevan E

2011-05-01

The present study aimed to investigate the prevalence of self-reported impairment (Criterion F) as part of a probable DSM-IV diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) within a sample of 1001 Israeli Jews subjected to direct and indirect exposure to rocket attacks. Further, the present study aimed to investigate predictors of endorsing posttraumatic stress (PTS)-related impairment, with specific attention to the influence of resources and resource loss. Data were collected via phone surveys. Twenty-nine percent of the sample reported impairment; however, only 19% of those reporting impairment met criteria for probable PTSD. Logistic regression results indicated that psychosocial resource losses, experiencing personal injury or injury to a family member or close friend, experiencing other major life stressors in the past year, having poorer health, having significant sleep difficulty, and having traditional (moderate) religious practices, significantly predicted PTS-related impairment. Results suggest that addressing impairment only within the context of full PTSD misses many individuals experiencing significant PTS-related impairment.

GREAT I: A Study of the Upper Mississippi River. Volume 1. Main Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

management of the river system and its interrelated Ensure necessary capability to components within the river corridor . maintain the total river...stem corridor will is a complex resource. It means many probably directly modify many or all things to many people. To call it a other components of the...resource in the "resource" implies that it is some- main stem corridor , Any description thing which man can draw on to satisfy of the Upper

Preliminary assessments of the occurrence and effects of utilization of sand and aggregate resources of the Louisiana inner shelf

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suter, J.R.; Mossa, J.; Penland, S.

1989-01-01

Louisiana is experiencing the most critical coastal erosion and land loss problem in the United States. Shoreline erosion rates exceed 6 m/yr in more than 80% of the Louisiana coastal zone and can be up to 50 m/yr in areas impacted by hurricanes. The barrier islands have decreased in area by some 40% since 1880. Land loss from coastal marshlands and ridgelands from both natural and human-induced processes is estimated to exceed 100 km2/yr. In response, a two-phase plan has been established, calling for barrier-island restoration and beach nourishment, both requiring large amounts of sand. The plan will be cost-effective only if sand can be found offshore in sufficient quantities close to project sites. To locate such deposits, the Louisiana Geological Survey is conducting an inventory of nearshore sand resources on the Louisiana continental shelf. Exploration for offshore sand deposits is conducted in two phases, with high-resolution seismic reflection profiling to locate potential sand bodies followed by vibracoring to confirm seismic intepretations and obtain samples for textural characterization. As part of the initial stages of the program, reconnaissance high-resolution seismic investigations of three areas of the continental shelf representing different stages in the evolutionary sequence of barrier shorelines were carried out. The Timbalier Islands, flanking barriers of the eroding Caminada-Moreau headland, contain potential sand resources associated with buried tidal and distributary channels. The Chandeleur Islands, a barrier-island arc, have potential offshore sands in the form of truncated spit and tidal inlet deposits, submerged beach ridges, and distributary channels. Trinity Shoal, an inner shelf shoal, is an offshore feature containing up to 2 ?? 109 m3 of material, most of which is probably fine sand. These reconnaissance surveys have demonstrated the occurrence of sand resources on the Louisiana continental shelf. Utilization of such deposits for island restoration or beach nourishment raises the question of potential adverse effects on the shoreline due to alteration of the inner shelf bathymetry by removing material or deposition of spoil in the process of dredging. Wave refraction analysis models provide a means by which hypothetical wave energy distribution can be determined and possible changes due to resource utilization assessed. A preliminary assessment of the consequences of using sand from Ship Shoal, a large shore-parallel feature, as borrow material for beach nourishment was conducted. Initial results indicate that the shoal serves to attenuate storm waves, and removal of this feature would result in increased erosion and overwash on the adjacent Isles Dernieres barrier-island shoreline. These findings illustrate the need to determine optimum dredging configurations if environmentally deleterious effects of utilization of offshore and aggregate resources are to be minimized. ?? 1989.

FORSPAN Model Users Guide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, T.R.; Charpentier, Ronald R.

2003-01-01

The USGS FORSPAN model is designed for the assessment of continuous accumulations of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (collectively called petroleum). Continuous (also called ?unconventional?) accumulations have large spatial dimensions and lack well defined down-dip petroleum/water contacts. Oil and natural gas therefore are not localized by buoyancy in water in these accumulations. Continuous accumulations include ?tight gas reservoirs,? coalbed gas, oil and gas in shale, oil and gas in chalk, and shallow biogenic gas. The FORSPAN model treats a continuous accumulation as a collection of petroleumcontaining cells for assessment purposes. Each cell is capable of producing oil or gas, but the cells may vary significantly from one another in their production (and thus economic) characteristics. The potential additions to reserves from continuous petroleum resources are calculated by statistically combining probability distributions of the estimated number of untested cells having the potential for additions to reserves with the estimated volume of oil and natural gas that each of the untested cells may potentially produce (total recovery). One such statistical method for combination of number of cells with total recovery, used by the USGS, is called ACCESS.

Hepatoprotective effects of Auricularia cornea var. Li. polysaccharides against the alcoholic liver diseases through different metabolic pathways.

PubMed

Wang, Xiuxiu; Lan, Yufei; Zhu, Yongfa; Li, Shangshang; Liu, Min; Song, Xinling; Zhao, Huajie; Liu, Weiru; Zhang, Jianjun; Wang, Shouxian; Jia, Le

2018-05-15

The present work was designed to evaluate the antioxidation and hepatoprotective effects of Auricularia cornea var. Li. polysaccharides (APS) and enzymatic-extractable APS (EAPS) on the acute alcohol-induced alcoholic liver diseases (ALD). The in vitro antioxidant activities demonstrated that both APS and EAPS had strong reducing power and potential effects on scavenging reactive oxygen species. The in vivo mice experiments showed that the pretreatment with APS or EAPS showed potential hepatoprotective effects on the ALD possibly by increasing the antioxidant activities, reducing the lipid peroxidation, improving the alcohol metabolism, inhibiting the expression levels of inflammatory mediators and preventing the alcohol-induced histopathological alterations. In addition, the fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR), 1 H and 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) and gas chromatography (GC) had been analyzed to obtained the primarily characteristics. The results indicated that abundant xylose and glucose contents probably had potential effects on possessing the bioactivities. The findings suggested that the A. cornea var. Li. might be considered as promising natural resource on exploring clinical drugs for the prevention and treatment with ALD and its complications.

Revisiting the Impact of NCLB High-Stakes School Accountability, Capacity, and Resources: State NAEP 1990-2009 Reading and Math Achievement Gaps and Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jaekyung; Reeves, Todd

2012-01-01

This study examines the impact of high-stakes school accountability, capacity, and resources under NCLB on reading and math achievement outcomes through comparative interrupted time-series analyses of 1990-2009 NAEP state assessment data. Through hierarchical linear modeling latent variable regression with inverse probability of treatment…

Time as a dimension of the sample design in national-scale forest inventories

Treesearch

Francis Roesch; Paul Van Deusen

2013-01-01

Historically, the goal of forest inventories has been to determine the extent of the timber resource. Predictions of how the resource was changing were made by comparing differences between successive inventories. The general view of the associated sample design was with selection probabilities based on land area observed at a discrete point in time. Time was not...

Career Planning: Developing the Nation's Primary Resource.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarvis, Phillip S.

Career planning is the most critical ingredient in developing a nation's primary resource, its workers. A 1988 Gallup Poll showed that 62 percent of U.S. workers had no career goal when they began their first job, and more than 50 percent felt they were in the wrong job. The same results probably could be applied to Canada. Career planning skills…

Probabilistic assessment methodology for continuous-type petroleum accumulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crovelli, R.A.

2003-01-01

The analytic resource assessment method, called ACCESS (Analytic Cell-based Continuous Energy Spreadsheet System), was developed to calculate estimates of petroleum resources for the geologic assessment model, called FORSPAN, in continuous-type petroleum accumulations. The ACCESS method is based upon mathematical equations derived from probability theory in the form of a computer spreadsheet system. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integration of Reading and Writing Strategies in Primary Level Special Education Resource Students To Improve Reading Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Kathy S.

A program was developed for improving the reading level of primary special education resource students in a progressive suburban community in the midwest. The problem was originally noted by an increase in the need for support services and low standardized test scores. Analysis of probable cause data revealed that students lacked knowledge of the…

Cost comparisons for the use of nonterrestrial materials in space manufacturing of large structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bock, E. H.; Risley, R. C.

1979-01-01

This paper presents results of a study sponsored by NASA to evaluate the relative merits of constructing solar power satellites (SPS) using resources obtained from the earth and from the moon. Three representative lunar resources utilization (LRU) concepts are developed and compared with a previously defined earth baseline concept. Economic assessment of the alternatives includes cost determination, economic threshold sensitivity to manufacturing cost variations, cost uncertainties, program funding schedule, and present value of costs. Results indicate that LRU for space construction is competitive with the earth baseline approach for a program requiring 100,000 metric tons per year of completed satellites. LRU can reduce earth-launched cargo requirements to less than 10% of that needed to build satellites exclusively from earth materials. LRU is potentially more cost-effective than earth-derived material utilization, due to significant reductions in both transportation and manufacturing costs. Because of uncertainties, cost-effectiveness cannot be ascertained with great confidence. The probability of LRU attaining a lower total program cost within the 30-year program appears to range from 57 to 93%.

Lunar He-3, fusion propulsion, and space development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santarius, John F.

1992-01-01

The recent identification of a substantial lunar resource of the fusion energy fuel He-3 may provide the first terrestrial market for a lunar commodity and, therefore, a major impetus to lunar development. The impact of this resource-when burned in D-He-3 fusion reactors for space power and propulsion-may be even more significant as an enabling technology for safe, efficient exploration and development of space. One possible reactor configuration among several options, the tandem mirror, illustrates the potential advantages of fusion propulsion. The most important advantage is the ability to provide either fast, piloted vessels or high-payload-fraction cargo vessels due to a range of specific impulses from 50 sec to 1,000,000 sec at thrust-to-weight ratios from 0.1 to 5x10(exp -5). Fusion power research has made steady, impressive progress. It is plausible, and even probable, that fusion rockets similar to the designs presented here will be available in the early part of the twenty-first century, enabling a major expansion of human presence into the solar system.

Naval facility energy conversion plants as resource recovery system components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capps, A. G.

1980-01-01

This interim report addresses concepts for recovering energy from solid waste by using Naval facilities steam plants as principle building blocks of candidate solid waste/resource recovery systems at Navy installations. The major conclusions of this portion of the project are: although it is technically feasible to adapt Navy energy conversion systems to fire Waste Derived Fuels (WDF) in one or more of its forms, the optimal form selected should be a site-specific total system; near- to intermediate-term programs should probably continue to give first consideration to waterwall incinerators and to the cofiring of solid WDF in coal-capable plants; package incinerators and conversions of oil burning plants to fire a fluff form of solid waste fuel may be the options with the greatest potential for the intermediate term because waterwalls would be uneconomical in many small plants and because the majority of medium-sized oil-burning plants will not be converted to burn coal; and pyrolytic processes to produce gaseous and liquid fuels have not been sufficiently developed as yet to be specified for commerical operation.

Water resources in the twenty-first century; a study of the implications of climate uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, Marshall E.; Lins, Harry F.

1989-01-01

The interactions of the water resources on and within the surface of the Earth with the atmosphere that surrounds it are exceedingly complex. Increased uncertainty can be attached to the availability of water of usable quality in the 21st century, therefore, because of potential anthropogenic changes in the global climate system. For the U.S. Geological Survey to continue to fulfill its mission with respect to assessing the Nation's water resources, an expanded program to study the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be required. The goal for this program is to develop knowledge and information concerning the potential water-resources implications for the United States of uncertainties in climate that may result from both anthropogenic and natural changes of the Earth's atmosphere. Like most past and current water-resources programs of the Geological Survey, the climate-uncertainty program should be composed of three elements: (1) research, (2) data collection, and (3) interpretive studies. However, unlike most other programs, the climate-uncertainty program necessarily will be dominated by its research component during its early years. Critical new concerns to be addressed by the research component are (1) areal estimates of evapotranspiration, (2) hydrologic resolution within atmospheric (climatic) models at the global scale and at mesoscales, (3) linkages between hydrology and climatology, and (4) methodology for the design of data networks that will help to track the impacts of climate change on water resources. Other ongoing activities in U.S. Geological Survey research programs will be enhanced to make them more compatible with climate-uncertainty research needs. The existing hydrologic data base of the Geological Survey serves as a key element in assessing hydrologic and climatologic change. However, this data base has evolved in response to other needs for hydrologic information and probably is not as sensitive to climate change as is desirable. Therefore, as measurement and network-design methodologies are improved to account for climate-change potential, new data-collection activities will be added to the existing programs. One particular area of data-collection concern pertains to the phenomenon of evapotranspiration. Interpretive studies of the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be initiated by establishing several studies at the river-basin scale in diverse hydroclimatic and demographic settings. These studies will serve as tests of the existing methodologies for studying the impacts of climate change and also will help to define subsequent research priorities. A prototype for these studies was initiated in early 1988 in the Delaware River basin.

Mineral resources of the Whipple Mountains and Whipple Mountains Addition Wilderness Study Areas, San Bernardino County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marsh, Sherman P.; Raines, Gary L.; Diggles, Michael F.; Howard, Keith A.; Simpson, Robert W.; Hoover, Donald B.; Ridenour, James; Moyle, Phillip R.; Willett, Spencee L.

1988-01-01

At the request of the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, approximately 85,100 acres of the Whipple Mountains Wilderness Study Area (CDCA-312) and 1,380 acres of the Whipple Mountains Addition Wilderness Study Area (AZ-050-010) were evaluated for identified mineral resources (known) and mineral resource potential (undiscovered). In this report, the Whipple Mountains and Whipple Mountains Addition Wilderness Study Areas are referred to as simply "the study area." Most of the mines and prospects with identified resources in the Whipple Mountains Wilderness Study Area are within areas designated as having mineral resource potential. The area in and around the Turk Silver mine and the Lucky Green group and the area near the northwest boundary of the study area have high mineral resource potential for copper, lead, zinc, gold, and silver. An area along the west boundary of the study area has moderate resource potential for copper lead, zinc, gold, and silver. An area in the east adjacent to the Whipple Mountains Addition Wilderness Study Area has moderate resource potential for copper, gold, and silver resources. One area on the north boundary and one on the southeast boundary of the study area have low mineral resource potential for copper, lead, zinc, gold, and silver. Two areas, one on the north boundary and one inside the east boundary of the study area, have moderate resource potential for manganese. A small area inside the south boundary of the study area has high resource potential for decorative building stone, and the entire study area has low resource potential for sand and gravel and other rock products suitable for construction. Two areas in the eastern part of the study area have low resource potential for uranium. There is no resource potential for oil and gas or geothermal resources in the Whipple Mountains Wilderness Study Area. Sites within the Whipple Mountains Wilderness Study Area with identified resources of copper, gold, silver, manganese and (or) decorative building stone are located at the Stewart mine, New American Eagle mine, Turk Silver mine, Twin Lode mine, decorative stone property, Lucky Green group, Blue Cloud mine, Nickel Plate mine, Crescent mine, Quadrangle Copper group, and the Copper Basin mine. The Whipple Mountains Addition Wilderness Study Area has moderate resource potential for copper, gold, and silver resources and low resource potential for sand and gravel and other rock products. There is no resource potential for oil and gas or for geothermal energy in the Whipple Mountains Addition Wilderness Study Area. Although there are no identified resources in the Whipple Mountains Addition Wilderness Study Area, sites within and immediately adjacent warrant further study because of gold assays from widespread, numerous samples.

Assessing the Value of Regulation Resources Based on Their Time Response Characteristics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Lu, Shuai; Ma, Jian

2008-06-01

Fast responsive regulation resources are potentially more valuable as a power system regulation resource (more efficient) because they allow applying controls at the exact moment and in the exact amount as needed. Faster control is desirable because it facilitates more reliable compliance with the NERC Control Performance Standards at relatively lesser regulation capacity procurements. The current California ISO practices and markets do not provide a differentiation among the regulation resources based on their speed of response (with the exception of some minimum ramping capabilities). Some demand response technologies, including some generation and energy storage resources, can provide quicker control actions.more » California ISO practices and markets could be updated to welcome more fast regulation resources into the California ISO service area. The project work reported in this work was pursuing the following objectives: • Develop methodology to assess the relative value of generation resources used for regulation and load following California ISO functions • This assessment should be done based on physical characteristics including the ability to quickly change their output following California ISO signals • Evaluate what power is worth on different time scales • Analyze the benefits of new regulation resources to provide effective compliance with the mandatory NERC Control Performance Standards • Evaluate impacts of the newly proposed BAAL and FRR standards on the potential value of fast regulation and distributed regulation resources • Develop a scope for the follow-up projects to pave a road for the new efficient types of balancing resources in California. The work included the following studies: • Analysis of California ISO regulating units characteristics • California ISO automatic generation system (AGC) analysis • California ISO regulation procurement and market analysis • Fast regulation efficiency analysis • Projection of the California ISO load following and regulation requirements into the future • Value of fast responsive resources depending on their ramping capability • Potential impacts of the balancing authority area control error limit (BAAL), which is a part of the newly proposed NERC standard “Balancing Resources and Demand” • Potential impacts of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) frequency responsive reserve (FRR) standard • Recommendations for the next phase of the project. The following main conclusions and suggestions for the future have been made: • The analysis of regulation ramping requirements shows that the regulation system should be able to provide ramps of at least 40-60 MW per minute for a period up to 6 minutes. • Evaluate if changes are needed in the California ISO AGC system to effectively accommodate new types of fast regulation resources and minimize the California ISO regulation procurement. • California ISO may consider creating better market opportunities for and incentives for fast responsive resources. • An additional study of low probability high ramp events can be recommended to the California ISO. • The California ISO may be willing to consider establishing a more relaxed target CPS2 compliance level. • A BAAL-related study can be recommended for the California ISO as soon as more clarity is achieved concerning the actual enforcement of the BAAL standard and its numerical values for the California ISO. The study may involve an assessment of advantages of the distributed frequency-based control for the California ISO system. The market-related issues that arise in this connection can be also investigated. • A FRR-related study can be recommended for the California ISO as soon as more clarity is achieved concerning the actual enforcement of the FRR standard and its numerical values for the California ISO.« less

Wilderness study area, mineral resources of the Sleeping Giant, Lewis and Clark County, Montana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tysdal, G.; Reynold, M.W.; Carlson, R.R.

1991-01-01

A Mineral resource survey was conducted in 1987 by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines to evaluate mineral resources (known) and mineral resource potential (undiscovered) of the Sleeping Giant Wilderness Study Area (MT-075-111) in Lewis and Clark County, Montana. The only economic resource in the study area is an inferred 1.35-million-ton reserve of decorative stone (slate); a small gold placer resource is subeconomic. A high resource potential for decorative slate exists directly adjacent to the area of identified slate resource and in the northeastern part of the study area. The rest of the study area hasmore » a low potential for decorative slate. The westernmost part of the study area has a moderate resource potential for copper and associated silver in state-bound deposits in green beds and limestone; potential is low in the rest of the study are. The study area has a low resource potential for sapphires in placer deposits, gold in placer deposits (exclusive of subeconomic resource mentioned above), phosphate in the Spokane Formation, diatomite in lake deposits, uranium, oil, gas, geothermal energy, and no resource potential for phosphate in the Phosphoria Formation.« less

Dynamic Call Admission Control Scheme Based on Predictive User Mobility Behavior for Cellular Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intarasothonchun, Silada; Thipchaksurat, Sakchai; Varakulsiripunth, Ruttikorn; Onozato, Yoshikuni

In this paper, we propose a modified scheme of MSODB and PMS, called Predictive User Mobility Behavior (PUMB) to improve performance of resource reservation and call admission control for cellular networks. This algorithm is proposed in which bandwidth is allocated more efficiently to neighboring cells by key mobility parameters in order to provide QoS guarantees for transferring traffic. The probability is used to form a cluster of cells and the shadow cluster, where a mobile unit is likely to visit. When a mobile unit may change the direction and migrate to the cell that does not belong to its shadow cluster, we can support it by making efficient use of predicted nonconforming call. Concomitantly, to ensure continuity of on-going calls with better utilization of resources, bandwidth is borrowed from predicted nonconforming calls and existing adaptive calls without affecting the minimum QoS guarantees. The performance of the PUMB is demonstrated by simulation results in terms of new call blocking probability, handoff call dropping probability, bandwidth utilization, call successful probability, and overhead message transmission when arrival rate and speed of mobile units are varied. Our results show that PUMB provides the better performances comparing with those of MSODB and PMS under different traffic conditions.

Quantitative assessment of mineral resources with an application to petroleum geology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harff, Jan; Davis, J.C.; Olea, R.A.

1992-01-01

The probability of occurrence of natural resources, such as petroleum deposits, can be assessed by a combination of multivariate statistical and geostatistical techniques. The area of study is partitioned into regions that are as homogeneous as possible internally while simultaneously as distinct as possible. Fisher's discriminant criterion is used to select geological variables that best distinguish productive from nonproductive localities, based on a sample of previously drilled exploratory wells. On the basis of these geological variables, each wildcat well is assigned to the production class (dry or producer in the two-class case) for which the Mahalanobis' distance from the observation to the class centroid is a minimum. Universal kriging is used to interpolate values of the Mahalanobis' distances to all locations not yet drilled. The probability that an undrilled locality belongs to the productive class can be found, using the kriging estimation variances to assess the probability of misclassification. Finally, Bayes' relationship can be used to determine the probability that an undrilled location will be a discovery, regardless of the production class in which it is placed. The method is illustrated with a study of oil prospects in the Lansing/Kansas City interval of western Kansas, using geological variables derived from well logs. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

An oilspill risk analysis for the Mid-Atlantic (proposed sale 76) outer continental shelf lease area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuels, W.B.; Hopkins, Dorothy

1982-01-01

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted for the mid-Atlantic (proposed sale 76) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The analysis considered: the probability of spill occurrences based on historical trends; likely movement of oil slicks based on a climatological model; and locations of environmental resources which could be vulnerable to spilled oil. The times between spill occurrence and contact with resources were estimated to aid analysts in estimating slick characteristics. Critical assumptions made for this particular analysis were (1) that oil exists in the lease area, and (2) that 0.879 billion barrels of oil will be found and produced from tracts sold in sale 76. On the basis of this resource estimate, it was calculated that 3 to 4 oilspills of 1,000 barrels or greater will occur over the 30-year production life of the proposed sale 76 lease tracts. The results also depend upon the routes and methods chosen to transport oil from 0CS platforms to shore. Given the above assumptions, the estimated probability that one or more oilspills of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land after being at sea less than 30 days is 0.36; for spills 10,000 barrels or larger, the probability is 0.22. These probabilities also reflect the following assumptions: oilspills remain intact for up to 30 days, do not weather, and are not cleaned up. It is noteworthy that over 90 percent of the risk from proposed sale 76 is due to transportation rather than production of oil. In addition, the risks from proposed sale 76 are about 1/10 to 1/15 those of existing tanker transportation of crude oil imports and refined products in the mid-Atlantic area.

Vertex evoked potentials in a rating-scale detection task: Relation to signal probability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squires, K. C.; Squires, N. K.; Hillyard, S. A.

1974-01-01

Vertex evoked potentials were recorded from human subjects performing in an auditory detection task with rating scale responses. Three values of a priori probability of signal presentation were tested. The amplitudes of the N1 and P3 components of the vertex potential associated with correct detections of the signal were found to be systematically related to the strictness of the response criterion and independent of variations in a priori signal probability. No similar evoked potential components were found associated with signal absent judgements (misses and correct rejections) regardless of the confidence level of the judgement or signal probability. These results strongly support the contention that the form of the vertex evoked response is closely correlated with the subject's psychophysical decision regarding the presence or absence of a threshold level signal.

Subalpine bumble bee foraging distances and densities in relation to flower availability.

PubMed

Elliott, Susan E

2009-06-01

Bees feed almost exclusively on nectar and pollen from flowers. However, little is known about how food availability limits bee populations, especially in high elevation areas. Foraging distances and relationships between forager densities and resource availability can provide insights into the potential for food limitation in mobile consumer populations. For example, if floral resources are limited, bee consumers should fly farther to forage, and they should be more abundant in areas with more flowers. I estimated subalpine bumble bee foraging distances by calculating forager recapture probabilities at increasing distances from eight marking locations. I measured forager and flower densities over the flowering season in six half-hectare plots. Because subalpine bumble bees have little time to build their colonies, they may forage over short distances and forager density may not be constrained by flower density. However, late in the season, when floral resources dwindle, foraging distances may increase, and there may be stronger relationships between forager and flower densities. Throughout the flowering season, marked bees were primarily found within 100 m (and never >1,000 m) from their original marking location, suggesting that they typically did not fly far to forage. Although the density of early season foraging queens increased with early-season flower density, the density of mid- and late-season workers and males did not vary with flower density. Short foraging distances and no relationships between mid- and late-season forager and flower densities suggest that high elevation bumble bees may have ample floral resources for colony growth reproduction.

Bayesian assessment of overtriage and undertriage at a level I trauma centre.

PubMed

DiDomenico, Paul B; Pietzsch, Jan B; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

2008-07-13

We analysed the trauma triage system at a specific level I trauma centre to assess rates of over- and undertriage and to support recommendations for system improvements. The triage process is designed to estimate the severity of patient injury and allocate resources accordingly, with potential errors of overestimation (overtriage) consuming excess resources and underestimation (undertriage) potentially leading to medical errors.We first modelled the overall trauma system using risk analysis methods to understand interdependencies among the actions of the participants. We interviewed six experienced trauma surgeons to obtain their expert opinion of the over- and undertriage rates occurring in the trauma centre. We then assessed actual over- and undertriage rates in a random sample of 86 trauma cases collected over a six-week period at the same centre. We employed Bayesian analysis to quantitatively combine the data with the prior probabilities derived from expert opinion in order to obtain posterior distributions. The results were estimates of overtriage and undertriage in 16.1 and 4.9% of patients, respectively. This Bayesian approach, which provides a quantitative assessment of the error rates using both case data and expert opinion, provides a rational means of obtaining a best estimate of the system's performance. The overall approach that we describe in this paper can be employed more widely to analyse complex health care delivery systems, with the objective of reduced errors, patient risk and excess costs.

Unconventional Tools for an Unconventional Resource: Community and Landscape Planning for Shale in the Marcellus Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murtha, T., Jr.; Orland, B.; Goldberg, L.; Hammond, R.

2014-12-01

Deep shale natural gas deposits made accessible by new technologies are quickly becoming a considerable share of North America's energy portfolio. Unlike traditional deposits and extraction footprints, shale gas offers dispersed and complex landscape and community challenges. These challenges are both cultural and environmental. This paper describes the development and application of creative geospatial tools as a means to engage communities along the northern tier counties of Pennsylvania, experiencing Marcellus shale drilling in design and planning. Uniquely combining physical landscape models with predictive models of exploration activities, including drilling, pipeline construction and road reconstruction, the tools quantify the potential impacts of drilling activities for communities and landscapes in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Dividing the state into 9836 watershed sub-basins, we first describe the current state of Marcellus related activities through 2014. We then describe and report the results of three scaled predictive models designed to investigate probable sub-basins where future activities will be focused. Finally, the core of the paper reports on the second level of tools we have now developed to engage communities in planning for unconventional gas extraction in Pennsylvania. Using a geodesign approach we are working with communities to transfer information for comprehensive landscape planning and informed decision making. These tools not only quantify physical landscape impacts, but also quantify potential visual, aesthetic and cultural resource implications.

U.S. Geological Survey assessment concepts for conventional petroleum accumulations: Chapter 24 in Petroleum systems and geologic assessment of oil and gas in the San Joaquin Basin Province, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmoker, James W.; Klett, T.R.

2007-01-01

Conventional petroleum accumulations are discrete fields or pools localized in structural or stratigraphic traps by the buoyancy of oil or gas in water; they float, bubble-like, in water. This report describes the fundamental concepts supporting the U.S. Geological Survey “Seventh Approximation” model for resource assessments of conventional accumulations. The Seventh Approximation provides a strategy for estimating volumes of undiscovered petroleum (oil, gas, and coproducts) having the potential to be added to reserves in a 30-year forecast span. The assessment of an area requires (1) choice of a minimum accumulation size, (2) assignment of geologic and access risk, and (3) estimation of the number and sizes of undiscovered accumulations in the assessment area. The combination of these variables yields probability distributions for potential additions to reserves. Assessment results are controlled by geology-based input parameters supplied by knowledgeable geologists, as opposed to projections of historical trends.

Mindfulness and emotion regulation—an fMRI study

PubMed Central

Lutz, Jacqueline; Herwig, Uwe; Opialla, Sarah; Hittmeyer, Anna; Jäncke, Lutz; Rufer, Michael; Grosse Holtforth, Martin

2014-01-01

Mindfulness—an attentive non-judgmental focus on present experiences—is increasingly incorporated in psychotherapeutic treatments as a skill fostering emotion regulation. Neurobiological mechanisms of actively induced emotion regulation are associated with prefrontally mediated down-regulation of, for instance, the amygdala. We were interested in neurobiological correlates of a short mindfulness instruction during emotional arousal. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated effects of a short mindfulness intervention during the cued expectation and perception of negative and potentially negative pictures (50% probability) in 24 healthy individuals compared to 22 controls. The mindfulness intervention was associated with increased activations in prefrontal regions during the expectation of negative and potentially negative pictures compared to controls. During the perception of negative stimuli, reduced activation was identified in regions involved in emotion processing (amygdala, parahippocampal gyrus). Prefrontal and right insular activations when expecting negative pictures correlated negatively with trait mindfulness, suggesting that more mindful individuals required less regulatory resources to attenuate emotional arousal. Our findings suggest emotion regulatory effects of a short mindfulness intervention on a neurobiological level. PMID:23563850

States and challenges for high-value biohythane production from waste biomass by dark fermentation technology.

PubMed

Liu, Zhidan; Zhang, Chong; Lu, Yuan; Wu, Xiao; Wang, Lang; Wang, Linjun; Han, Bing; Xing, Xin-Hui

2013-05-01

Hythane (H2+CH4) has attracted growing attention due to its versatile advantages as, for instance vehicle fuel. Biohythane consisting of biohydrogen and biomethane via two-stage fermentation is a potential high-value solution for the valorization of waste biomass resources and probably an alternative to the fossil based hythane. However, the significance and application potential of biohythane have not yet been fully recognized. This review focuses on the progress of biohydrogen and subsequent biomethane fermentation in terms of substrate, microbial consortium, reactor configuration, as well as the H2/CH4 ratio from the perspective of the feasibility of biohythane production in the past ten years. The current paper also covers how controls of the microbial consortium and bioprocess, system integration influence the biohythane productivity. Challenges and perspectives on biohythane technology will finally be addressed. This review provides a state-of-the-art technological insight into biohythane production by two-stage dark fermentation from biomass. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Web-based interface to calculate phonotactic probability for words and nonwords in Modern Standard Arabic.

PubMed

Aljasser, Faisal; Vitevitch, Michael S

2018-02-01

A number of databases (Storkel Behavior Research Methods, 45, 1159-1167, 2013) and online calculators (Vitevitch & Luce Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, and Computers, 36, 481-487, 2004) have been developed to provide statistical information about various aspects of language, and these have proven to be invaluable assets to researchers, clinicians, and instructors in the language sciences. The number of such resources for English is quite large and continues to grow, whereas the number of such resources for other languages is much smaller. This article describes the development of a Web-based interface to calculate phonotactic probability in Modern Standard Arabic (MSA). A full description of how the calculator can be used is provided. It can be freely accessed at http://phonotactic.drupal.ku.edu/ .

20007: Quantum particle displacement by a moving localized potential trap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granot, E.; Marchewka, A.

2009-04-01

We describe the dynamics of a bound state of an attractive δ-well under displacement of the potential. Exact analytical results are presented for the suddenly moved potential. Since this is a quantum system, only a fraction of the initially confined wave function remains confined to the moving potential. However, it is shown that besides the probability to remain confined to the moving barrier and the probability to remain in the initial position, there is also a certain probability for the particle to move at double speed. A quasi-classical interpretation for this effect is suggested. The temporal and spectral dynamics of each one of the scenarios is investigated.

Mineral Resource Assessment of Marine Sand Resources in Cape- and Ridge-Associated Marine Sand Deposits in Three Tracts, New York and New Jersey, United States Atlantic Continental Shelf

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bliss, James D.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Arsenault, Matthew A.

2009-01-01

Demand is growing in the United States and worldwide for information about the geology of offshore continental shelf regions, the character of the seafloor, and sediments comprising the seafloor and subbottom. Interest in locating sand bodies or high quality deposits that have potential as sources for beach nourishment and ecosystem restoration is especially great in some regions of the country. The Atlantic coast, particularly New York and New Jersey, has been the focus of these studies for the past 40 years with widely varying results. This study is the first attempt at applying probability statistics to modeling Holocene-age cape-and ridge-associated sand deposits and thus focuses on distinct sand body morphology. This modeling technique may have application for other continental shelf regions that have similar geologic character and late Quaternary sea-level transgression history. An estimated volume of 3.9 billion m3 of marine sand resources is predicted in the cape-and ridge-associated marine sand deposits in three representative regions or tracts on the continental shelf offshore of New York and New Jersey. These estimates are taken from probabilistic distributions of sand resources and are produced using deposit models and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) techniques. The estimated sand resources presented here are for only three tracts as described below and for Holocene age sand resources contained in cape-and ridge-associated marine sand deposit types within this area. Other areas may qualify as tracts for this deposit type and other deposit types and geologic ages (for example, paleo-stream channels, blanket and outwash deposits, ebb-tide shoals, and lower sea level-stand deltas), which are present on the New Jersey and New York continental shelf area but are not delineated and modeled in this initial evaluation. Admittedly, only a portion of these probable sand resources will ultimately be available and suitable for production, dependent largely on geographic, economic, preemptive use, environmental, geologic and political factors. In addition, offshore sand resources should only be considered if the area is seaward of the active zone of significant nearshore sediment transport, about 10 to 12 m in depth, and in sufficiently shallow water so that sand can be extracted within U.S. dredging equipment limits, currently about 40 m in depth. If the material is to be used for beach nourishment, material must be of an appropriate sediment texture and character (grain size, sorting, shape, and color) to match the native beach and have mineralogical properties important to its use. Extraction of sand can disturb or alter the benthic habitat and seafloor ecology, so these factors and other site-specific effects will need to be evaluated for any intended use. These and other factors are not considered in this report but can be expected to reduce the total net volume of sand resources available for production. The purpose of this report is to describe and present results from a probabilistic mineral modeling technique previously applied to onshore mineral resources. This modeling and assessment procedure is being used for the first time to assess and estimate offshore aggregate resources; this study is part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Marine Aggregates Resources and Processes Project (http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/aggregates/).

Mineral resource potential maps of the Fiddler Butte Wilderness Study Area and the Fremont Gorge Study Area, Garfield and Wayne counties, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larson, M.J.; Dubiel, R.F.; Peterson, Fred; Willson, W.R.; Briggs, J.P.

1985-01-01

Field and laboratory investigations of the Fiddler Butte WSA (Wilderness Study Area) in Garfield County, Utah, and of the Fremont Gorge study area in Wayne County, Utah, were made to determine the mineral resource potential of these lands. The investigations indicate that two areas in the northeastern and southwestern parts of the Fiddler Butte WSA have a moderate potential for uranium resources. The entire Fiddler Butte WSA has a moderate potential for petroleum resources, and the northeastern part of the WSA has a high potential for tar sand resources. The studies indicate a low potential for metallic and nonmetallic resources in the Fiddler Butte WSA. The Fremont Gorge study area has a low potential for metallic, nonmetallic, and petroleum resources.

Contrast statistics for foveated visual systems: fixation selection by minimizing contrast entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raj, Raghu; Geisler, Wilson S.; Frazor, Robert A.; Bovik, Alan C.

2005-10-01

The human visual system combines a wide field of view with a high-resolution fovea and uses eye, head, and body movements to direct the fovea to potentially relevant locations in the visual scene. This strategy is sensible for a visual system with limited neural resources. However, for this strategy to be effective, the visual system needs sophisticated central mechanisms that efficiently exploit the varying spatial resolution of the retina. To gain insight into some of the design requirements of these central mechanisms, we have analyzed the effects of variable spatial resolution on local contrast in 300 calibrated natural images. Specifically, for each retinal eccentricity (which produces a certain effective level of blur), and for each value of local contrast observed at that eccentricity, we measured the probability distribution of the local contrast in the unblurred image. These conditional probability distributions can be regarded as posterior probability distributions for the ``true'' unblurred contrast, given an observed contrast at a given eccentricity. We find that these conditional probability distributions are adequately described by a few simple formulas. To explore how these statistics might be exploited by central perceptual mechanisms, we consider the task of selecting successive fixation points, where the goal on each fixation is to maximize total contrast information gained about the image (i.e., minimize total contrast uncertainty). We derive an entropy minimization algorithm and find that it performs optimally at reducing total contrast uncertainty and that it also works well at reducing the mean squared error between the original image and the image reconstructed from the multiple fixations. Our results show that measurements of local contrast alone could efficiently drive the scan paths of the eye when the goal is to gain as much information about the spatial structure of a scene as possible.

Mineral resource potential map of the Mount Eddy and Castle Crags Roadless Areas, Shasta, Siskiyou, and Trinity counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Jocelyn A.; Caress, Mary E.; Denton, David K.; Spear, James M.

1983-01-01

Although ultramafic terranes such as that underlying the Mount Eddy and Castle Crags Roadless Areas may contain chromite, nickel, platinum-group metals, cobalt, and asbestos, there are no significant identified concentrations of these resources within the roadless areas. Platinum-group metals were sought but not detected in stream-sediment concentrates, although this does not rule out their possible occurrence. Nickel and cobalt did not occur in anomalous amounts although slightly higher nickel values in the northern part of the Mount Eddy Roadless Area may indicate low-grade mineralization within small dunite bodies, if the nickel occurs in sulfide phases rather than in olivine. The region has been examined on the surface for chromite and asbestos. Although both minerals are ubiquitous there is probably only a low potential for asbestos on the basis of the small size of veins at the surface. Only a few small areas of chromite were noted in the Mount Eddy Roadless Area; without subsurface data, however, any dunite body must be considered to have potential for chromite. The geochemical data for boron, barium, and mercury plus abundant quartz veining in gabbro and hornblende diorite suggest pervasive hydrothermal alteration, which could have formed mercury or vein gold deposits. Sand and gravel deposits occur in the Castle Crags Roadless Area but they cannot compete with superior deposits closer to markets. At a borrow pit northwest of the Mount Eddy Roadless Area, sheared serpentinite is quarried for road metal; similar rock occurs in the roadless area; however, better material is more readily available elsewhere.

Comparative Genomics Unravels the Functional Roles of Co-occurring Acidophilic Bacteria in Bioleaching Heaps

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xian; Liu, Xueduan; Liang, Yili; Xiao, Yunhua; Ma, Liyuan; Guo, Xue; Miao, Bo; Liu, Hongwei; Peng, Deliang; Huang, Wenkun; Yin, Huaqun

2017-01-01

The spatial-temporal distribution of populations in various econiches is thought to be potentially related to individual differences in the utilization of nutrients or other resources, but their functional roles in the microbial communities remain elusive. We compared differentiation in gene repertoire and metabolic profiles, with a focus on the potential functional traits of three commonly recognized members (Acidithiobacillus caldus, Leptospirillum ferriphilum, and Sulfobacillus thermosulfidooxidans) in bioleaching heaps. Comparative genomics revealed that intra-species divergence might be driven by horizontal gene transfer. These co-occurring bacteria shared a few homologous genes, which significantly suggested the genomic differences between these organisms. Notably, relatively more genes assigned to the Clusters of Orthologous Groups category [G] (carbohydrate transport and metabolism) were identified in Sulfobacillus thermosulfidooxidans compared to the two other species, which probably indicated their mixotrophic capabilities that assimilate both organic and inorganic forms of carbon. Further inspection revealed distinctive metabolic capabilities involving carbon assimilation, nitrogen uptake, and iron-sulfur cycling, providing robust evidence for functional differences with respect to nutrient utilization. Therefore, we proposed that the mutual compensation of functionalities among these co-occurring organisms might provide a selective advantage for efficiently utilizing the limited resources in their habitats. Furthermore, it might be favorable to chemoautotrophs' lifestyles to form mutualistic interactions with these heterotrophic and/or mixotrophic acidophiles, whereby the latter could degrade organic compounds to effectively detoxify the environments. Collectively, the findings shed light on the genetic traits and potential metabolic activities of these organisms, and enable us to make some inferences about genomic and functional differences that might allow them to co-exist. PMID:28529505

Perspectives of Medieval Persian Medicine on Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Parviz, Mohsen; Sheibani, Behnam; Schiess, Nicoline; Ghorbanifar, Zahra; Kamalinejad, Mohammad; Nazem, Esmail; Sadeghpour, Omid; Rezaeizadeh, Hossein

2018-01-01

Traditional Persian Medicine (TPM) was the prevailing practice of medicine in the Eurasia region up through the 18th century, a practice of medicine stemming back to Hippocrates and to the 5000 year old civilization of the region. It is a school of medicine which touches on many a delicate points which may seem unimaginable within the realm of modern allopathic medicine. This practice of ancient medicine besides shedding light on various possible theoretical modern day disorders serves as a vast resource for therapeutics. In this paper, we present study of the manuscripts of this ancient medical practice in search of symptom presentations coinciding with presentation of multiple sclerosis (MS). This paper represents a comprehensive search through TPM texts and manuscripts with the intention to seek possible clues on MS from potentially valuable age-old resources. We predominantly focused our search on the works of five eminent physicians of Medieval Persia: Avicenna (980-1037 AD), Haly Abbas (949-982 AD), Rhazes (865-925 AD), Averroes (1126-1198 AD) and Jorjani (1042-1137 AD). In this paper, the authors attempt a theory and conclude with high probability that a conjunction of a series of signs, symptoms found in TPM texts under the terms khadar, isterkha and falej form the symptoms and the disease pattern of modern day MS. This theory draws upon existent similarities in terms of disease pathology, disease patterns and predisposing factors seen between MS and the related morbidities within Persian Medicine. We recommend further examinations of such potentially valuable long-standing resources, examining the diagnoses and treatments as set forth by Persian Medicine through international collaboration within the global scientific community. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Ground-water/surface-water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas basin, Ventura County, California, 1950-93

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Dettinger, Michael D.

2005-01-01

Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate-driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/°C, compared to 0.9 m/°C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM-RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and — when the GCM forecast skills are adequate — for near term predictions.

Ground water/surface water responses to global climate simulations, Santa Clara-Calleguas Basin, Ventura, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, R.T.; Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

Climate variations can play an important, if not always crucial, role in successful conjunctive management of ground water and surface water resources. This will require accurate accounting of the links between variations in climate, recharge, and withdrawal from the resource systems, accurate projection or predictions of the climate variations, and accurate simulation of the responses of the resource systems. To assess linkages and predictability of climate influences on conjunctive management, global climate model (GCM) simulated precipitation rates were used to estimate inflows and outflows from a regional ground water model (RGWM) of the coastal aquifers of the Santa ClaraCalleguas Basin at Ventura, California, for 1950 to 1993. Interannual to interdecadal time scales of the El Nin??o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate variations are imparted to simulated precipitation variations in the Southern California area and are realistically imparted to the simulated ground water level variations through the climate-driven recharge (and discharge) variations. For example, the simulated average ground water level response at a key observation well in the basin to ENSO variations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is 1.2 m/??C, compared to 0.9 m/??C in observations. This close agreement shows that the GCM-RGWM combination can translate global scale climate variations into realistic local ground water responses. Probability distributions of simulated ground water level excursions above a local water level threshold for potential seawater intrusion compare well to the corresponding distributions from observations and historical RGWM simulations, demonstrating the combination's potential usefulness for water management and planning. Thus the GCM-RGWM combination could be used for planning purposes and - when the GCM forecast skills are adequate - for near term predictions.

Analysis of Geothermal Pathway in the Metamorphic Area, Northeastern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Wu, M. Y.; Song, S. R.; Lo, W.

2016-12-01

A quantitative measure by play fairway analysis in geothermal energy development is an important tool that can present the probability map of potential resources through the uncertainty studies in geology for early phase decision making purpose in the related industries. While source, pathway, and fluid are the three main geologic factors in traditional geothermal systems, identifying the heat paths is critical to reduce drilling cost. Taiwan is in East Asia and the western edge of Pacific Ocean, locating on the convergent boundary of Eurasian Plate and Philippine Sea Plate with many earthquake activities. This study chooses a metamorphic area in the western corner of Yi-Lan plain in northeastern Taiwan with high geothermal potential and several existing exploration sites. Having high subsurface temperature gradient from the mountain belts, and plenty hydrologic systems through thousands of millimeters annual precipitation that would bring up heats closer to the surface, current geothermal conceptual model indicates the importance of pathway distribution which affects the possible concentration of extractable heat location. The study conducts surface lineation analysis using analytic hierarchy process to determine weights among various fracture types for their roles in geothermal pathways, based on the information of remote sensing data, published geologic maps and field work measurements, to produce regional fracture distribution probability map. The results display how the spatial distribution of pathways through various fractures could affect geothermal systems, identify the geothermal plays using statistical data analysis, and compare against the existing drilling data.

Descriptive and Experimental Analyses of Potential Precursors to Problem Behavior

PubMed Central

Borrero, Carrie S.W; Borrero, John C

2008-01-01

We conducted descriptive observations of severe problem behavior for 2 individuals with autism to identify precursors to problem behavior. Several comparative probability analyses were conducted in addition to lag-sequential analyses using the descriptive data. Results of the descriptive analyses showed that the probability of the potential precursor was greater given problem behavior compared to the unconditional probability of the potential precursor. Results of the lag-sequential analyses showed a marked increase in the probability of a potential precursor in the 1-s intervals immediately preceding an instance of problem behavior, and that the probability of problem behavior was highest in the 1-s intervals immediately following an instance of the precursor. We then conducted separate functional analyses of problem behavior and the precursor to identify respective operant functions. Results of the functional analyses showed that both problem behavior and the precursor served the same operant functions. These results replicate prior experimental analyses on the relation between problem behavior and precursors and extend prior research by illustrating a quantitative method to identify precursors to more severe problem behavior. PMID:18468281

Energy resources of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Theobald, P.K.; Schweinfurth, Stanley P.; Duncan, Donald Cave

1972-01-01

Estimates are made of United States resources of coal, petroleum liquids, natural gas, uranium, geothermal energy, and oil from oil shale. The estimates, compiled by specialists of the U.S. Geological Survey, are generally made on geologic projections of favorable rocks and on anticipated frequency of the energy resource in the favorable rocks. Accuracy of the estimates probably ranges from 20 to 50 percent for identified-recoverable resources to about an order of magnitude for undiscovered-submarginal resources. The total coal resource base in the United States is estimated to be about 3,200 billion tons, of which 200-390 billion tons can be considered in the category identified and recoverable. More than 70 percent of current production comes from the Appalachian basin where the resource base, better known than for the United States as a whole, is about 330 billion tons, of which 22 billion tons is identified and recoverable. Coals containing less than 1 percent sulfur are the premium coals. These are abundant in the western coal fields, but in the Appalachian basin the resource base for low-sulfur coal is estimated to be only a little more than 100 billion tons, of which 12 billion tons is identified and recoverable. Of the many estimates of petroleum liquids and natural-gas resources, those of the U.S. Geological Survey are the largest because, in general, our estimates include the largest proportion of favorable ground for exploration. We estimate the total resource base for petroleum liquids to be about 2,900 billion barrels, of which 52 billion barrels is identified and recoverable. Of the total resource base, some 600 billion barrels is in Alaska or offshore from Alaska, 1,500 billion barrels is offshore from the United States, and 1,300 billion barrels is onshore in the conterminous United States. Identified-recoverable resources of petroleum liquids corresponding to these geographic units are 11, 6, and 36 billion barrels, respectively. The total natural-gas resource of the United States is estimated to be about 6,600 trillion cubic feet, of which 290 trillion cubic feet is identified and recoverable. In geographic units comparable to those for petroleum liquids, the resource bases are 1,400, 3,400, and 2,900 trillion cubic feet, and the identified-recoverable resources are 31, 40, and 220 trillion cubic feet, respectively. Uranium resources in conventional deposits, where uranium is the major product, are estimated at 1,600,000 tons of U3O8, of which 250,000 tons is identified and recoverable. A potential byproduct resource of more than 7 million tons of U3O8, is estimated for phosphate rock, but none of this resource is recoverable under present economic conditions. The resources of heat in potential geothermal energy sources are poorly known. The total resource base for the United States is certainly greater than 10 22 calories, of which only 2.5 ? 10 18 calories can be considered identified and recoverable at present. Oil shale is estimated to contain 26 trillion barrels of oil. None of this resource is economic at present, but if prices increase moderately, 160-600 billion barrels of this oil could be shifted into the identified-recoverable category.

Tertiary oil discoveries whet explorer interest off Tunisia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, M.

Prospects for increased Tertiary oil production in the S. Mediterranean have brightened with discoveries off Tunisia, but more evaluation is needed before commercial potential is known. Several groups of U.S. and European companies have tested oil in the relatively unexplored Miocene in the Gulf of Hannamet. These include groups operated by Buttes Resources Tunisia, Elf-Aquitaine Tunisia, and Shell Tunirex. Oil test rates of 1,790 to 1,800 bpd have been reported by the Buttes group in 2 Gulf of Hammamet wells. The initial discovery probably was the first Tertiary oil ever tested in that part of the Mediterranean. The discoveries havemore » helped boost exploratory interest in the northern waters of Tunisia and northeast toward Sicily. There are reports more U.S. and European companies are requesting exploration permits from the government of Tunisia. Companies with permits are planning new exploration for 1978. Probably the most significant discovery to date has been the Buttes group's 1 Jasmine (2 BGH). The group tested high-quality 39.5'-gravity oil at a rate of 1,790 bpd. Test flow was from the Sabri Sand at 6,490 to 6,590 ft. The well was drilled in 458 ft of water.« less

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Powerhouse fire, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Smoczyk, Gregory M.; Reeves, Ryan R.

2013-01-01

Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. Existing empirical models were used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm for the 2013 Powerhouse fire near Lancaster, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively low probability for debris-flow occurrence in response to the design storm. However, volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 44 of the 73 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes between 10,000 and 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest that even though the likelihood of debris flow is relatively low, the consequences of post-fire debris-flow initiation within the burn area may be significant for downstream populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National-Weather-Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches, and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Mountain fire, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Smoczyk, Greg M.; Reeves, Ryan R.

2013-01-01

Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. We use empirical models to predict the probability and magnitude of debris flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Mountain fire near Palm Springs, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–100 percent) of debris flow for six of the drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 8 of the 14 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest there is a high likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National Weather Service–issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

Acknowledging Spanish and English resources during mathematical reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LópezLeiva, Carlos A.; Torres, Zayoni; Khisty, Lena L.

2013-12-01

As English-only efforts continue in the US schooling system, dual-language programs have served as attempts to preserve students' home language. An after-school, dual-language, Spanish-English, mathematics program, Los Rayos was developed in a predominantly Mexican/Mexican-American neighborhood in Chicago. As participant observers with a sociocultural perspective, we explored the linguistic and personal resources used by participating 4th grade bilingual Latina/o students. We found that students used imaginative, playful, and hybrid linguistic resources to make sense of and solve probability tasks when engaged within a zone of mathematical practice. Results challenge narrow perspectives on bilingual students' linguistic resources. Language implications are discussed.

The impact of resource loss on Holocaust survivors facing war and terrorism in Israel

PubMed Central

Dekel, R.; Hobfoll, S. E.

2009-01-01

We examined the distress level of 102 Holocaust survivors in Israel during a recent period of continuous exposure of the Israeli population to terror and the threat of missile attack. Based on the Conservation of Resources (COR) theory, we explored the contribution of losses suffered during the Holocaust and of current loss of resources due to terror attacks on their distress level. Twenty one percent of the sample had probable PTSD and high psychological distress levels in general. Current loss of psychosocial resources contributed significantly to survivors’ current PTSD symptomatology and general psychological distress, above the contribution of the previous Holocaust-related loss. Our findings support COR theory, which states that traumatic events are associated with ongoing and often rapid loss of resources. Resource loss, in turn, is associated with higher distress levels. Moreover, current loss of resources compounds the impact of earlier resource losses incurred during the Holocaust. PMID:17453549

BRIDGER WILDERNESS AND GREEN-SWEETWATER ROADLESS AREA, WYOMING.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Worl, Ronald G.; Ryan, George S.

1984-01-01

A mineral-resource appraisal of the Bridger Wilderness and contiguous Green-Sweetwater Roadless Area in Wyoming was made. This rugged and remote region is mostly Precambrian crystalline granitic rocks that contain only small and discontinuous areas of mineralization. The area is considered to have little promise for metallic mineral deposits. Sedimentary rocks in the area have minor coal seams and beds of phosphate rock, but the coal beds are thin and of limited extent, and the phosphate rock is low-grade compared to similar rocks elsewhere in the region. A probable potential for oil and gas at depth, assigned to part of the area, is based on the assumption that oil- and gas-bearing rocks exist at depth below a low-angle thrust fault and a wedge of Precambrian crystalline rock.

DEFINITION OF MULTIVARIATE GEOCHEMICAL ASSOCIATIONS WITH POLYMETALLIC MINERAL OCCURRENCES USING A SPATIALLY DEPENDENT CLUSTERING TECHNIQUE AND RASTERIZED STREAM SEDIMENT DATA - AN ALASKAN EXAMPLE.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenson, Susan K.; Trautwein, C.M.

1984-01-01

The application of an unsupervised, spatially dependent clustering technique (AMOEBA) to interpolated raster arrays of stream sediment data has been found to provide useful multivariate geochemical associations for modeling regional polymetallic resource potential. The technique is based on three assumptions regarding the compositional and spatial relationships of stream sediment data and their regional significance. These assumptions are: (1) compositionally separable classes exist and can be statistically distinguished; (2) the classification of multivariate data should minimize the pair probability of misclustering to establish useful compositional associations; and (3) a compositionally defined class represented by three or more contiguous cells within an array is a more important descriptor of a terrane than a class represented by spatial outliers.

Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

2014-05-01

Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of drought periods, probably more acute by the year 2100 and in scenario A2. As a result, a decrease in inflows to the Castelo de Bode reservoir between 20 to 34% is expected, with emphasis in autumn. While for the near-term scenarios this is mostly due to a decrease in median annual inflow; for the long-term scenarios this is accompanied by lower inter-annual variability and a decrease of magnitude of wet year inflows. Associated with increased precipitation erosion potential, watershed sediment transport will probably tend to increase, enhancing phosphorous transport into surface water and thus contributing to potential eutrophication problems. However, modeling results do not indicate compromising water quality degradation. Decreased reservoir inflows should nevertheless be sufficient to sustain water supply, considering an average annual consumption of 160 hm3 y-1 and the legal prioritization of water supply over hydropower production, as worst case average annual inflows scenarios are estimated between 1 000 and 1 500 hm3 y-1. On the other hand, considering that hydropower comprises downstream releases averaging 1 400 hm3 y-1, restrictions to energy production will probably be required to compensate lower inflow periods and guaranty necessary water supply storage volumes. The presented modeling framework provided an adequate tool for assessing climate change impacts on water resources, demonstrating that climate scenarios are not likely to threaten Lisbon's water supply system but emphasizing the need for adequate reservoir management strategies contemplating the risk of competitive water uses in the Castelo de Bode reservoir.

Mineral resources of the Mormon Mountains Wilderness Study Area, Lincoln County, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shawe, D.R.; Blank, H.R. Jr.; Wernicke, B.P.

1988-01-01

The U.S. Bureau of Mines and the U.S. Geological Survey conducted investigations to appraise the identified resources and to assess the potential for undiscovered resources of the Mormon Mountains Wilderness Study Area, southeastern Nevada. There are no identified resources in or near the study area; however, there are no occurrences of commercial-grade limestones and sand gravel. The study area has high mineral resource potential for copper, lead, zinc, silver, and (or) gold in its southern part and copper, lead, zinc, silver, gold, arsenic, and (or) antimony in its northern part. Part of the study area has moderate mineral resource potentialmore » for antimony. Two areas in the central part of the study area have moderate mineral resource potential for molybdenum, tungsten, and (or) tin. The study area has moderate energy resource potential for oil and gas, except for areas of low potential where significant hydrothermal activity has occurred. It has low mineral and energy resource potential for manganese, barite, vermiculite, coal, and geothermal energy.« less

An oilspill risk analysis for the South Atlantic (proposed sale 78) outer continental shelf lease area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuels, W.B.

1982-01-01

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted for the South Atlantic (proposed sale 78) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The analysis considered the probability of spill occurrences based on historical trends; likely movement of oil slicks based on a climatological model ; and locations of environmental resources which could be vulnerable to spilled oil. The times between spill occurrence and contact with resources were estimated to aid analysts in estimating slick characteristics. Critical assumptions made for this particular analysis were: (1) that oil exists in the lease area, (2) that either 0.228 billion (mean case) or 1.14 billion (high case) barrels of oil will be found and produced from tracts sold in sale 78, and (3) that all the oil will be found either in the northern or the southern portion of the lease area. On the basis of these resource estimates, it was estimated that 1 to 5 oilspills of 1,000 barrels or greater will occur over the 25 to 30-year production life of the proposed sale 78 tracts. The results also depend upon the routes and methods chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to shore. Given the above assumptions, the estimated probability that one or more oilspills of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land after being at sea less than 30 days is less than 15 percent for all cases considered; for spills 10,000 barrels or larger, the probability is less than 10 percent. These probabilities also reflect the following assumptions: oilspills remain intact for up to 30 days, do not weather, and are not cleaned up. It is noteworthy that over 80 percent of the risk of oilspill occurrence from proposed sale 78 is due to transportation rather than production of oil. In addition, the risks of oilspill occurrence from proposed sale 78 (mean resource estimate) are less than one-tenth of the risks of existing tanker transportation of crude oil imports and refined products in the South Atlantic area.

Mineral resources of the Mount Tipton Wilderness Study Area, Mohave County, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greene, Robert C.; Turner, Robert L.; Jachens, Robert C.; Lawson, William A.; Almquist, Carl L.

1989-01-01

The Mount Tipton Wilderness Study Area (AZ-020-012/ 042) comprises 33,950 acres in Mohave County, Ariz. At the request of the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, this area was evaluated for identified mineral resources (known) and mineral resource potential (undiscovered). This work was carried out by the U.S. Bureau of Mines and the U.S. Geological Survey in 1984-87. In this report, the area studied is referred to as the "wilderness study area" or simply "the study area." There are no identified mineral resources in the study area. The southernmost part of the study area is adjacent to the Wallapai (Chloride) mining district and has low mineral resource potential for gold, silver, copper, lead, zinc, and molybdenum in hydrothermal veins. This area also has a low mineral resource potential for tungsten in vein deposits and for uranium in vein deposits or pegmatites. In the central part of the wilderness study area, one small area has low mineral resource potential for uranium in vein deposits or pegmatites and another small area has low resource potential for thorium in vein deposits. The entire study area has low resource potential for geothermal energy but no potential for oil or gas resources.

Geological Carbon Sequestration Storage Resource Estimates for the Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone, Illinois and Michigan Basins, USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnes, David; Ellett, Kevin; Leetaru, Hannes

The Cambro-Ordovician strata of the Midwest of the United States is a primary target for potential geological storage of CO2 in deep saline formations. The objective of this project is to develop a comprehensive evaluation of the Cambro-Ordovician strata in the Illinois and Michigan Basins above the basal Mount Simon Sandstone since the Mount Simon is the subject of other investigations including a demonstration-scale injection at the Illinois Basin Decatur Project. The primary reservoir targets investigated in this study are the middle Ordovician St Peter Sandstone and the late Cambrian to early Ordovician Knox Group carbonates. The topic of thismore » report is a regional-scale evaluation of the geologic storage resource potential of the St Peter Sandstone in both the Illinois and Michigan Basins. Multiple deterministic-based approaches were used in conjunction with the probabilistic-based storage efficiency factors published in the DOE methodology to estimate the carbon storage resource of the formation. Extensive data sets of core analyses and wireline logs were compiled to develop the necessary inputs for volumetric calculations. Results demonstrate how the range in uncertainty of storage resource estimates varies as a function of data availability and quality, and the underlying assumptions used in the different approaches. In the simplest approach, storage resource estimates were calculated from mapping the gross thickness of the formation and applying a single estimate of the effective mean porosity of the formation. Results from this approach led to storage resource estimates ranging from 3.3 to 35.1 Gt in the Michigan Basin, and 1.0 to 11.0 Gt in the Illinois Basin at the P10 and P90 probability level, respectively. The second approach involved consideration of the diagenetic history of the formation throughout the two basins and used depth-dependent functions of porosity to derive a more realistic spatially variable model of porosity rather than applying a single estimate of porosity throughout the entire potential reservoir domains. The second approach resulted in storage resource estimates of 3.0 to 31.6 Gt in the Michigan Basin, and 0.6 to 6.1 Gt in the Illinois Basin. The third approach attempted to account for the local-scale variability in reservoir quality as a function of both porosity and permeability by using core and log analyses to calculate explicitly the net effective porosity at multiple well locations, and interpolate those results throughout the two basins. This approach resulted in storage resource estimates of 10.7 to 34.7 Gt in the Michigan Basin, and 11.2 to 36.4 Gt in the Illinois Basin. A final approach used advanced reservoir characterization as the most sophisticated means to estimating storage resource by defining reservoir properties for multiple facies within the St Peter formation. This approach was limited to the Michigan Basin since the Illinois Basin data set did not have the requisite level of data quality and sampling density to support such an analysis. Results from this approach led to storage resource estimates of 15.4 Gt to 50.1 Gt for the Michigan Basin. The observed variability in results from the four different approaches is evaluated in the context of data and methodological constraints, leading to the conclusion that the storage resource estimates from the first two approaches may be conservative, whereas the net porosity based approaches may over-estimate the resource.« less

Space Radiation Risk Assessment for Future Lunar Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ponomarev, Artem; Atwell, Bill; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2007-01-01

For lunar exploration mission design, radiation risk assessments require the understanding of future space radiation environments in support of resource management decisions, operational planning, and a go/no-go decision. The future GCR flux was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which was coupled with the estimated neutron monitor rate from the Climax monitor using a statistical model. A probability distribution function for solar particle event (SPE) occurrence was formed from proton fluence measurements of SPEs occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Large proton SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice for which the fluences are greater than 2 10(exp 9) protons/sq cm for energies greater than 30 MeV, were also combined to extend the probability calculation for high level of proton fluences. The probability with which any given proton fluence level of a SPE will be exceeded during a space mission of defined duration was then calculated. Analytic energy spectra of SPEs at different ranks of the integral fluences were constructed over broad energy ranges extending out to GeV, and representative exposure levels were analyzed at those fluences. For the development of an integrated strategy for radiation protection on lunar exploration missions, effective doses at various points inside a spacecraft were calculated with detailed geometry models representing proposed transfer vehicle and habitat concepts. Preliminary radiation risk assessments from SPE and GCR were compared for various configuration concepts of radiation shelter in exploratory-class spacecrafts.

Power Allocation and Outage Probability Analysis for SDN-based Radio Access Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yongxu; Chen, Yueyun; Mai, Zhiyuan

2018-01-01

In this paper, performance of Access network Architecture based SDN (Software Defined Network) is analyzed with respect to the power allocation issue. A power allocation scheme PSO-PA (Particle Swarm Optimization-power allocation) algorithm is proposed, the proposed scheme is subjected to constant total power with the objective of minimizing system outage probability. The entire access network resource configuration is controlled by the SDN controller, then it sends the optimized power distribution factor to the base station source node (SN) and the relay node (RN). Simulation results show that the proposed scheme reduces the system outage probability at a low complexity.

Attempts to reduce alcohol intake and treatment needs among people with probable alcohol dependence in England: a general population survey.

PubMed

Dunne, Jacklyn; Kimergård, Andreas; Brown, Jamie; Beard, Emma; Buykx, Penny; Michie, Susan; Drummond, Colin

2018-03-25

To compare the proportion of people in England with probable alcohol dependence [Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score ≥ 20] with those with other drinking patterns (categorized by AUDIT scores) in terms of motivation to reduce drinking and use of alcohol support resources. A combination of random probability and simple quota sampling to conduct monthly cross-sectional household computer-assisted interviews between March 2014 and August 2017. The general population in all nine regions of England. Participants in the Alcohol Toolkit Study (ATS), a monthly household survey of alcohol consumption among people aged 16 years and over in England (n = 69 826). The mean age was 47 years [standard deviation (SD) = 18.78; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 46.8-47] and 51% (n = 35 560) were female. χ 2 tests were used to investigate associations with demographic variables, motivation to quit drinking, attempts to quit drinking, general practitioner (GP) engagement and types of support accessed in the last 12 months across AUDIT risk zones. A total of 0.6% were classified as people with probable alcohol dependence (95% CI = 0.5-0.7). Motivation to quit (χ 2  = 1692.27, P < 0.001), current attempts (χ 2  = 473.94, P < 0.001) and past-year attempts (χ 2  = 593.67, P < 0.001) differed by AUDIT risk zone. People with probable dependence were more likely than other ATS participants to have a past-year attempt to cut down or quit (51.8%) and have received a specialist referral from their GP about drinking (13.7%), and less likely to report no motivation to reduce their drinking (26.2%). Those with probable dependence had higher use of self-help books and mobile applications (apps) than other ATS participants; however, 27.7% did not access any resources during their most recent attempt to cut down. Adults in England with probable alcohol dependence, measured through the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, demonstrate higher motivation to quit drinking and greater use of both specialist treatment and self-driven support compared with those in other Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test zones, but most do not access treatment resources to support their attempts. © 2018 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Sampling designs matching species biology produce accurate and affordable abundance indices

PubMed Central

Farley, Sean; Russell, Gareth J.; Butler, Matthew J.; Selinger, Jeff

2013-01-01

Wildlife biologists often use grid-based designs to sample animals and generate abundance estimates. Although sampling in grids is theoretically sound, in application, the method can be logistically difficult and expensive when sampling elusive species inhabiting extensive areas. These factors make it challenging to sample animals and meet the statistical assumption of all individuals having an equal probability of capture. Violating this assumption biases results. Does an alternative exist? Perhaps by sampling only where resources attract animals (i.e., targeted sampling), it would provide accurate abundance estimates more efficiently and affordably. However, biases from this approach would also arise if individuals have an unequal probability of capture, especially if some failed to visit the sampling area. Since most biological programs are resource limited, and acquiring abundance data drives many conservation and management applications, it becomes imperative to identify economical and informative sampling designs. Therefore, we evaluated abundance estimates generated from grid and targeted sampling designs using simulations based on geographic positioning system (GPS) data from 42 Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos). Migratory salmon drew brown bears from the wider landscape, concentrating them at anadromous streams. This provided a scenario for testing the targeted approach. Grid and targeted sampling varied by trap amount, location (traps placed randomly, systematically or by expert opinion), and traps stationary or moved between capture sessions. We began by identifying when to sample, and if bears had equal probability of capture. We compared abundance estimates against seven criteria: bias, precision, accuracy, effort, plus encounter rates, and probabilities of capture and recapture. One grid (49 km2 cells) and one targeted configuration provided the most accurate results. Both placed traps by expert opinion and moved traps between capture sessions, which raised capture probabilities. The grid design was least biased (−10.5%), but imprecise (CV 21.2%), and used most effort (16,100 trap-nights). The targeted configuration was more biased (−17.3%), but most precise (CV 12.3%), with least effort (7,000 trap-nights). Targeted sampling generated encounter rates four times higher, and capture and recapture probabilities 11% and 60% higher than grid sampling, in a sampling frame 88% smaller. Bears had unequal probability of capture with both sampling designs, partly because some bears never had traps available to sample them. Hence, grid and targeted sampling generated abundance indices, not estimates. Overall, targeted sampling provided the most accurate and affordable design to index abundance. Targeted sampling may offer an alternative method to index the abundance of other species inhabiting expansive and inaccessible landscapes elsewhere, provided their attraction to resource concentrations. PMID:24392290

Technical and scale efficiency in the delivery of child health services in Zambia: results from data envelopment analysis

PubMed Central

Achoki, Tom; Hovels, Anke; Masiye, Felix; Lesego, Abaleng; Leufkens, Hubert; Kinfu, Yohannes

2017-01-01

Objective Despite tremendous efforts to scale up key maternal and child health interventions in Zambia, progress has not been uniform across the country. This raises fundamental health system performance questions that require further investigation. Our study investigates technical and scale efficiency (SE) in the delivery of maternal and child health services in the country. Setting The study focused on all 72 health districts of Zambia. Methods We compiled a district-level database comprising health outcomes (measured by the probability of survival to 5 years of age), health outputs (measured by coverage of key health interventions) and a set of health system inputs, namely, financial resources and human resources for health, for the year 2010. We used data envelopment analysis to assess the performance of subnational units across Zambia with respect to technical and SE, controlling for environmental factors that are beyond the control of health system decision makers. Results Nationally, average technical efficiency with respect to improving child survival was 61.5% (95% CI 58.2% to 64.8%), which suggests that there is a huge inefficiency in resource use in the country and the potential to expand services without injecting additional resources into the system. Districts that were more urbanised and had a higher proportion of educated women were more technically efficient. Improved cooking methods and donor funding had no significant effect on efficiency. Conclusions With the pressing need to accelerate progress in population health, decision makers must seek efficient ways to deliver services to achieve universal health coverage. Understanding the factors that drive performance and seeking ways to enhance efficiency offer a practical pathway through which low-income countries could improve population health without necessarily seeking additional resources. PMID:28057650

Hydrology, water quality, and potential alternatives for water-resources development in the Rio Majada and Rio Lapa basins near the Albergue Olimpico, southern Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramos-Gines, Orlando

1994-01-01

A water-resources investigation was conducted during 1989 in the Rio Lapa mountain basins in southern Puerto Rico, to define the hydrology, water quality, and to describe alternatives for additional water- resources supply. The total water budget for both surface- and ground-water resources in the study area was estimated to be 7,530 acre-feet per year for 1989. The water budget for the ground-water system, from which water needs are supplied in the study area, was estimated to be 2,760 acre-feet per year for 1989. Concentration of dissolved solids and fecal bacteria increased during the dry season as both streamflow and ground-water levels decreased. Water samples collected at two stream sites exceeded the recommended U.S. Environmental Protection Agency fecal bacteria concentration for natural water of 2,000 colonies per 100 milliliters during June to November 1989. Water samples obtained from a well in the Rio Lapa Valley exceeded the secondary drinking-water standard for dissolved solids of 500 milligrams per liter during four dry months. In addition, fecal bacteria concentrations at this water-supply well exceeded the primary fecal- bacteria drinking-water standard of 1 colony per 100 milliliter during June to October 1989. Existing water resources can probably be developed to meet additional demands of 110 acre-feet per year pro- jected for 1995. Storage of the surface-water runoff during the wet season and its gradual release to the study area could offset ground-water declines during the dry season. Ground-water withdrawals can be increased by the construction and use of low- capacity wells to reduce the amount of water lowing out of the study area.

Integrated Potential-field Studies in Support of Energy Resource Assessment in Frontier Areas of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, J. D.; Saltus, R. W.; Potter, C. J.; Stanley, R. G.; Till, A. B.

2008-05-01

In frontier areas of Alaska, potential-field studies play an important role in characterizing the geologic structure of sedimentary basins having potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources. Two such areas are the Yukon Flats basin in the east-central interior of Alaska, and the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in northeastern Alaska. The Yukon Flats basin is a potential source of hydrocarbon resources for local consumption and possible export. Knowledge of the subsurface configuration of the basin is restricted to a few seismic reflection profiles covering a limited area and one well. The seismic profiles were reprocessed and reinterpreted in preparation for an assessment of the oil and gas resources of the basin. The assessment effort required knowledge of the basin configuration away from the seismic profiles, as well as an understanding of the nature of the underlying basement. To extend the interpretation of the basin thickness across the entire area of the basin, an iterative Jachens-Moring gravity inversion was performed on gridded quasi-isostatic residual gravity anomaly data. The inversion was constrained to agree with the interpreted basement surface along the seismic profiles. In addition to the main sedimentary depocenter interpreted from the seismic data as having over 8 km of fill, the gravity inversion indicated a depocenter with over 7 km of fill in the Crooked Creek sub-basin. Results for the Crooked Creek sub-basin are consistent with magnetic and magnetotelluric modeling, but they await confirmation by drilling or seismic profiling. Whether hydrocarbon source rocks are present in the pre-Cenozoic basement beneath Yukon Flats is difficult to determine because extensive surficial deposits obscure the bedrock geology, and no deep boreholes penetrate basement. The color and texture patterns in a red-green-blue composite image consisting of reduced-to-the-pole aeromagnetic data (red), magnetic potential (blue), and basement gravity (green) highlight domains with common geophysical characteristics and, by inference, lithology. The observed patterns suggest that much of the basin is underlain by Devonian to Jurassic oceanic rocks that probably have little or no potential for hydrocarbon generation. The coastal plain surficial deposits in the northern part of ANWR conceal another frontier basin with hydrocarbon potential. Proprietary aeromagnetic and gravity data were used, along with seismic reflection profiles, to construct a structural and stratigraphic model of this highly deformed sedimentary basin for use in an energy resource assessment. Matched-filtering techniques were used to separate short-wavelength magnetic and gravity anomalies attributed to sources near the top of the sedimentary section from longer-wavelength anomalies attributed to deeper basin and basement sources. Models along the seismic reflection lines indicate that the primary sources of the short-wavelength anomalies are folded and faulted sedimentary beds truncated at the Pleistocene erosion surface. In map view, the aeromagnetic and gravity anomalies produced by the sedimentary units were used to identify possible structural trapping features and geometries, but they also indicated that these features may be significantly disrupted by faulting.

Classification of geothermal resources by potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybach, L.

2015-03-01

When considering and reporting resources, the term "geothermal potential" is often used without clearly stating what kind of potential is meant. For renewable energy resources it is nowadays common to use different potentials: theoretical, technical, economic, sustainable, developable - decreasing successively in size. In such a sequence, the potentials are progressively realizable and more and more rewarding financially. The theoretical potential describes the physically present energy, the technical potential the fraction of this energy that can be used by currently available technology and the economic potential the time- and location-dependent fraction of the previous category; the sustainable potential constrains the fraction of the economic potential that can be utilized in the long term; the developable potential is the fraction of the economic resource which can be developed under realistic conditions. In converting theoretical to technical potential, the recovery factor (the ratio extractable heat/heat present at depth) is of key importance. An example (global geothermal resources) is given, with numerical values of the various potentials. The proposed classification could and should be used as a kind of general template for future geothermal energy resources reporting.

BEESCOUT: A model of bee scouting behaviour and a software tool for characterizing nectar/pollen landscapes for BEEHAVE.

PubMed

Becher, M A; Grimm, V; Knapp, J; Horn, J; Twiston-Davies, G; Osborne, J L

2016-11-24

Social bees are central place foragers collecting floral resources from the surrounding landscape, but little is known about the probability of a scouting bee finding a particular flower patch. We therefore developed a software tool, BEESCOUT, to theoretically examine how bees might explore a landscape and distribute their scouting activities over time and space. An image file can be imported, which is interpreted by the model as a "forage map" with certain colours representing certain crops or habitat types as specified by the user. BEESCOUT calculates the size and location of these potential food sources in that landscape relative to a bee colony. An individual-based model then determines the detection probabilities of the food patches by bees, based on parameter values gathered from the flight patterns of radar-tracked honeybees and bumblebees. Various "search modes" describe hypothetical search strategies for the long-range exploration of scouting bees. The resulting detection probabilities of forage patches can be used as input for the recently developed honeybee model BEEHAVE, to explore realistic scenarios of colony growth and death in response to different stressors. In example simulations, we find that detection probabilities for food sources close to the colony fit empirical data reasonably well. However, for food sources further away no empirical data are available to validate model output. The simulated detection probabilities depend largely on the bees' search mode, and whether they exchange information about food source locations. Nevertheless, we show that landscape structure and connectivity of food sources can have a strong impact on the results. We believe that BEESCOUT is a valuable tool to better understand how landscape configurations and searching behaviour of bees affect detection probabilities of food sources. It can also guide the collection of relevant data and the design of experiments to close knowledge gaps, and provides a useful extension to the BEEHAVE honeybee model, enabling future users to explore how landscape structure and food availability affect the foraging decisions and patch visitation rates of the bees and, in consequence, to predict colony development and survival.

Rational use of Xpert testing in patients with presumptive TB: clinicians should be encouraged to use the test-treat threshold.

PubMed

Decroo, Tom; Henríquez-Trujillo, Aquiles R; De Weggheleire, Anja; Lynen, Lutgarde

2017-10-11

A recently published Ugandan study on tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis in HIV-positive patients with presumptive smear-negative TB, which showed that out of 90 patients who started TB treatment, 20% (18/90) had a positive Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) test, 24% (22/90) had a negative Xpert test, and 56% (50/90) were started without Xpert testing. Although Xpert testing was available, clinicians did not use it systematically. Here we aim to show more objectively the process of clinical decision-making. First, we estimated that pre-test probability of TB, or the prevalence of TB in smear-negative HIV infected patients with signs of presumptive TB in Uganda, was 17%. Second, we argue that the treatment threshold, the probability of disease at which the utility of treating and not treating is the same, and above which treatment should be started, should be determined. In Uganda, the treatment threshold was not yet formally established. In Rwanda, the calculated treatment threshold was 12%. Hence, one could argue that the threshold was reached without even considering additional tests. Still, Xpert testing can be useful when the probability of disease is above the treatment threshold, but only when a negative Xpert result can lower the probability of disease enough to cross the treatment threshold. This occurs when the pre-test probability is lower than the test-treat threshold, the probability of disease at which the utility of testing and the utility of treating without testing is the same. We estimated that the test-treatment threshold was 28%. Finally, to show the effect of the presence or absence of arguments on the probability of TB, we use confirming and excluding power, and a log10 odds scale to combine arguments. If the pre-test probability is above the test-treat threshold, empirical treatment is justified, because even a negative Xpert will not lower the post-test probability below the treatment threshold. However, Xpert testing for the diagnosis of TB should be performed in patients for whom the probability of TB was lower than the test-treat threshold. Especially in resource constrained settings clinicians should be encouraged to take clinical decisions and use scarce resources rationally.

N-mix for fish: estimating riverine salmonid habitat selection via N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Som, Nicholas A.; Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward C.; De Juilio, Kyle; Petros, Paul; Pinnix, William D.; Rupert, Derek L.

2018-01-01

Models that formulate mathematical linkages between fish use and habitat characteristics are applied for many purposes. For riverine fish, these linkages are often cast as resource selection functions with variables including depth and velocity of water and distance to nearest cover. Ecologists are now recognizing the role that detection plays in observing organisms, and failure to account for imperfect detection can lead to spurious inference. Herein, we present a flexible N-mixture model to associate habitat characteristics with the abundance of riverine salmonids that simultaneously estimates detection probability. Our formulation has the added benefits of accounting for demographics variation and can generate probabilistic statements regarding intensity of habitat use. In addition to the conceptual benefits, model application to data from the Trinity River, California, yields interesting results. Detection was estimated to vary among surveyors, but there was little spatial or temporal variation. Additionally, a weaker effect of water depth on resource selection is estimated than that reported by previous studies not accounting for detection probability. N-mixture models show great promise for applications to riverine resource selection.

South Asia river-flow projections and their implications for water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathison, C.; Wiltshire, A. J.; Falloon, P.; Challinor, A. J.

2015-12-01

South Asia is a region with a large and rising population, a high dependence on water intense industries, such as agriculture and a highly variable climate. In recent years, fears over the changing Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and rapidly retreating glaciers together with increasing demands for water resources have caused concern over the reliability of water resources and the potential impact on intensely irrigated crops in this region. Despite these concerns, there is a lack of climate simulations with a high enough resolution to capture the complex orography, and water resource analysis is limited by a lack of observations of the water cycle for the region. In this paper we present the first 25 km resolution regional climate projections of river flow for the South Asia region. Two global climate models (GCMs), which represent the ASM reasonably well are downscaled (1960-2100) using a regional climate model (RCM). In the absence of robust observations, ERA-Interim reanalysis is also downscaled providing a constrained estimate of the water balance for the region for comparison against the GCMs (1990-2006). The RCM river flow is routed using a river-routing model to allow analysis of present-day and future river flows through comparison with available river gauge observations. We examine how useful these simulations are for understanding potential changes in water resources for the South Asia region. In general the downscaled GCMs capture the seasonality of the river flows but overestimate the maximum river flows compared to the observations probably due to a positive rainfall bias and a lack of abstraction in the model. The simulations suggest an increasing trend in annual mean river flows for some of the river gauges in this analysis, in some cases almost doubling by the end of the century. The future maximum river-flow rates still occur during the ASM period, with a magnitude in some cases, greater than the present-day natural variability. Increases in river flow could mean additional water resources for irrigation, the largest usage of water in this region, but has implications in terms of inundation risk. These projected increases could be more than countered by changes in demand due to depleted groundwater, increases in domestic use or expansion of water intense industries. Including missing hydrological processes in the model would make these projections more robust but could also change the sign of the projections.

Spatial patterns of high Aedes aegypti oviposition activity in northwestern Argentina.

PubMed

Estallo, Elizabet Lilia; Más, Guillermo; Vergara-Cid, Carolina; Lanfri, Mario Alberto; Ludueña-Almeida, Francisco; Scavuzzo, Carlos Marcelo; Introini, María Virginia; Zaidenberg, Mario; Almirón, Walter Ricardo

2013-01-01

In Argentina, dengue has affected mainly the Northern provinces, including Salta. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial patterns of high Aedes aegypti oviposition activity in San Ramón de la Nueva Orán, northwestern Argentina. The location of clusters as hot spot areas should help control programs to identify priority areas and allocate their resources more effectively. Oviposition activity was detected in Orán City (Salta province) using ovitraps, weekly replaced (October 2005-2007). Spatial autocorrelation was measured with Moran's Index and depicted through cluster maps to identify hot spots. Total egg numbers were spatially interpolated and a classified map with Ae. aegypti high oviposition activity areas was performed. Potential breeding and resting (PBR) sites were geo-referenced. A logistic regression analysis of interpolated egg numbers and PBR location was performed to generate a predictive mapping of mosquito oviposition activity. Both cluster maps and predictive map were consistent, identifying in central and southern areas of the city high Ae. aegypti oviposition activity. A logistic regression model was successfully developed to predict Ae. aegypti oviposition activity based on distance to PBR sites, with tire dumps having the strongest association with mosquito oviposition activity. A predictive map reflecting probability of oviposition activity was produced. The predictive map delimitated an area of maximum probability of Ae. aegypti oviposition activity in the south of Orán city where tire dumps predominate. The overall fit of the model was acceptable (ROC=0.77), obtaining 99% of sensitivity and 75.29% of specificity. Distance to tire dumps is inversely associated with high mosquito activity, allowing us to identify hot spots. These methodologies are useful for prevention, surveillance, and control of tropical vector borne diseases and might assist National Health Ministry to focus resources more effectively.

Deriving habitat models for northern long-eared bats from historical detection data: A case study using the Fernow Experimental Forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ford, W. Mark; Silvis, Alexander; Rodrigue, Jane L.; Kniowski, Andrew B.; Johnson, Joshua B.

2016-01-01

The listing of the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) as federally threatened under the Endangered Species Act following severe population declines from white-nose syndrome presents considerable challenges to natural resource managers. Because the northern long-eared bat is a forest habitat generalist, development of effective conservation measures will depend on appropriate understanding of its habitat relationships at individual locations. However, severely reduced population sizes make gathering data for such models difficult. As a result, historical data may be essential in development of habitat models. To date, there has been little evaluation of how effective historical bat presence data, such as data derived from mist-net captures, acoustic detection, and day-roost locations, may be in developing habitat models, nor is it clear how models created using different data sources may differ. We explored this issue by creating presence probability models for the northern long-eared bat on the Fernow Experimental Forest in the central Appalachian Mountains of West Virginia using a historical, presence-only data set. Each presence data type produced outputs that were dissimilar but that still corresponded with known traits of the northern long-eared bat or are easily explained in the context of the particular data collection protocol. However, our results also highlight potential limitations of individual data types. For example, models from mist-net capture data only showed high probability of presence along the dendritic network of riparian areas, an obvious artifact of sampling methodology. Development of ecological niche and presence models for northern long-eared bat populations could be highly valuable for resource managers going forward with this species. We caution, however, that efforts to create such models should consider the substantial limitations of models derived from historical data, and address model assumptions.

Geologic Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the North Cuba Basin, Cuba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schenk, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

Petroleum generation in the North Cuba Basin is primarily the result of thrust loading of Jurassic and Cretaceous source rocks during formation of the North Cuba fold and thrust belt in the Late Cretaceous to Paleogene. The fold and thrust belt formed as Cuban arc-forearc rocks along the leading edge of the Caribbean plate translated northward during the opening of the Yucatan Basin and collided with the passive margin of southern North America in the Paleogene. Petroleum fluids generated during thrust loading migrated vertically into complex structures in the fold and thrust belt, into structures in the foreland basin, and possibly into carbonate reservoirs along the margins of the Yucatan and Bahama carbonate platforms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) defined a Jurassic-Cretaceous Composite Total Petroleum System (TPS) and three assessment units (AU)-North Cuba Fold and Thrust Belt AU, North Cuba Foreland Basin AU, and the North Cuba Platform Margin Carbonate AU-within this TPS based mainly on structure and reservoir type (fig. 1). There is considerable geologic uncertainty as to the extent of petroleum migration that might have occurred within this TPS to form potential petroleum accumulations. Taking this geologic uncertainty into account, especially in the offshore area, the mean volumes of undiscovered resources in the composite TPS of the North Cuba Basin are estimated at (1) 4.6 billion barrels of oil (BBO), with means ranging from an F95 probability of 1 BBO to an F5 probability of 9 BBO; and (2) 8.6 trillion cubic feet of of gas (TCFG), of which 8.6 TCFG is associated with oil fields, and about 1.2 TCFG is in nonassociated gas fields in the North Cuba Foreland Basin AU.

The Brown Tree Snake on Guam: How the Arrival of One Invasive Species Damaged the Ecology, Commerce, Electrical Systems and Human Health on Guam: A Comprehensive Information Source

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fritts, Thomas H.; Leasman-Tanner, Dawn

2001-01-01

Synopsis -- Shortly after World War II, and before 1952, the brown tree snake was accidentally transported from its native range in the South Pacific to Guam, probably as a stowaway in ship cargo. As a result of abnormally abundant prey resources on Guam and the absence of natural predators and other population controls, brown tree snake populations reached unprecedented numbers. Snakes caused the extirpation of most of the native forest vertebrate species; thousands of power outages affecting private, commercial, and military activities; widespread loss of domestic birds and pets; and considerable emotional trauma to residents and visitors alike when snakes invaded human habitats with the potential for severe envenomation of small children. Since Guam is a major transportation hub in the Pacific, numerous opportunities exist for the brown tree snakes on Guam to be introduced accidentally to other Pacific islands as passive stowaways in ship and air traffic from Guam. Numerous sightings of this species have been reported on other islands, and an incipient population is probably established on Saipan. It is important that people who may come in contact with the brown tree snake, particularly on neighboring islands and other high-risk sites, understand the scope of this problem and how to identify the snake so proper action can be taken. This resource has been developed to provide source materials on the history of the invasion, continuing threats, research results, and containment and management of the brown tree snake (Boiga irregularis) in Guam and its relevance to other islands and mild continental environments.

Analytical estimation of annual runoff distribution in ungauged seasonally dry basins based on a first order Taylor expansion of the Fu's equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caracciolo, D.; Deidda, R.; Viola, F.

2017-11-01

The assessment of the mean annual runoff and its interannual variability in a basin is the first and fundamental task for several activities related to water resources management and water quality analysis. The scarcity of observed runoff data is a common problem worldwide so that the runoff estimation in ungauged basins is still an open question. In this context, the main aim of this work is to propose and test a simple tool able to estimate the probability distribution of the annual surface runoff in ungauged river basins in arid and semi-arid areas using a simplified Fu's parameterization of the Budyko's curve at regional scale. Starting from a method recently developed to derive the distribution of annual runoff, under the assumption of negligible inter-annual change in basin water storage, we here generalize the application to any catchment where the parameter of the Fu's curve is known. Specifically, we provide a closed-form expression of the annual runoff distribution as a function of the mean and standard deviation of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, and the Fu's parameter. The proposed method is based on a first order Taylor expansion of the Fu's equation and allows calculating the probability density function of annual runoff in seasonally dry arid and semi-arid geographic context around the world by taking advantage of simple easy-to-find climatic data and the many studies with estimates of the Fu's parameter worldwide. The computational simplicity of the proposed tool makes it a valuable supporting tool in the field of water resources assessment for practitioners, regional agencies and authorities.

Correlation between the Availability of Resources and Efficiency of the School System within the Framework of the Implementation of Competency-Based Teaching Approaches in Cameroon

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Esongo, Njie Martin

2017-01-01

The study takes an in-depth examination of the extent to which the availability of resources relates to the efficiency of the school system within the framework of the implementation of competency-based teaching approaches in Cameroon. The study employed a mix of probability sampling approaches, namely simple, cluster and stratified random…

U.S. Geological Survey circum-arctic resource appraisal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gautier, D.L.

2011-01-01

Among the greatest uncertainties in future energy supply is the amount of oil and gas yet to be found in the Arctic. Using a probabilistic geology-based methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey has assessed the area north of the Arctic Circle. The Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) consists of three parts: (1) Mapping the sedimentary sequences of the Arctic (Grantz and others 2009), (2) Geologically based estimation of undiscovered technically recoverable petroleum (Gautier and others 2009, discussed in this presentation) and (3) Economic appraisal of the cost of delivering the undiscovered resources to major markets (also reported at this conference by White and others). We estimate that about 30% of the world's undiscovered gas and about 13% of the world's undiscovered oil may be present in the Arctic, mostly offshore under less than 500m of water. Billion BOE-plus accumulations of gas and oil are predicted at a 50% probability in the Kara Sea, Barents Sea, offshore East and West Greenland, Canada, and Alaska. On a BOE basis, undiscovered natural gas is three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic and is concentrated in Russian territory. Oil resources, while critically important to the interests of Arctic countries, are probably not sufficient to significantly shift the current geographic patterns of world oil production. Copyright 2011, Offshore Technology Conference.

Evaluating shrub-associated spatial patterns of soil properties in a shrub-steppe ecosystem using multiple-variable geostatistics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halvorson, J.J.; Smith, J.L.; Bolton, H. Jr.

1995-09-01

Geostatistics are often calculated for a single variable at a time, even though many natural phenomena are functions of several variables. The objective of this work was to demonstrate a nonparametric approach for assessing the spatial characteristics of multiple-variable phenomena. Specifically, we analyzed the spatial characteristics of resource islands in the soil under big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentala Nutt.), a dominant shrub in the intermountain western USA. For our example, we defined resource islands as a function of six soil variables representing concentrations of soil resources, populations of microorganisms, and soil microbial physiological variables. By collectively evaluating the indicator transformations ofmore » these individual variables, we created a new data set, termed a multiple-variable indicator transform or MVIT. Alternate MVITs were obtained by varying the selection criteria. Each MVIT was analyzed with variography to characterize spatial continuity, and with indicator kriging to predict the combined probability of their occurrence at unsampled locations in the landscape. Simple graphical analysis and variography demonstrated spatial dependence for all individual soil variables. Maps derived from ordinary kriging of MVITs suggested that the combined probabilities for encountering zones of above-median resources were greatest near big sagebrush. 51 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.« less

Formulation of a correlated variables methodology for assessment of continuous gas resources with an application to the Woodford play, Arkoma Basin, eastern Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.; Houseknecht, D.W.; Garrity, C.P.; Cook, T.A.

2011-01-01

Shale gas is a form of continuous unconventional hydrocarbon accumulation whose resource estimation is unfeasible through the inference of pore volume. Under these circumstances, the usual approach is to base the assessment on well productivity through estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). Unconventional resource assessments that consider uncertainty are typically done by applying analytical procedures based on classical statistics theory that ignores geographical location, does not take into account spatial correlation, and assumes independence of EUR from other variables that may enter into the modeling. We formulate a new, more comprehensive approach based on sequential simulation to test methodologies known to be capable of more fully utilizing the data and overcoming unrealistic simplifications. Theoretical requirements demand modeling of EUR as areal density instead of well EUR. The new experimental methodology is illustrated by evaluating a gas play in the Woodford Shale in the Arkoma Basin of Oklahoma. Differently from previous assessments, we used net thickness and vitrinite reflectance as secondary variables correlated to cell EUR. In addition to the traditional probability distribution for undiscovered resources, the new methodology provides maps of EUR density and maps with probabilities to reach any given cell EUR, which are useful to visualize geographical variations in prospectivity.

No Bridge Too High: Infants Decide Whether to Cross Based on the Probability of Falling not the Severity of the Potential Fall

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kretch, Kari S.; Adolph, Karen E.

2013-01-01

Do infants, like adults, consider both the probability of falling and the severity of a potential fall when deciding whether to cross a bridge? Crawling and walking infants were encouraged to cross bridges varying in width over a small drop-off, a large drop-off, or no drop-off. Bridge width affects the probability of falling, whereas drop-off…

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

The Association of Exposure, Risk, and Resiliency Factors With PTSD Among Jews and Arabs Exposed to Repeated Acts of Terrorism in Israel

PubMed Central

Hobfoll, Stevan E.; Canetti-Nisim, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J.; Palmieri, Patrick A.; Varley, Joseph D.; Galea, Sandro

2009-01-01

Israel has faced ongoing terrorism since the beginning of the Al Aqsa Intifada in September 2000. The authors examined risk and resiliency factors associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among 1,117 Jews and 394 Arab adult citizens of Israel during August and September 2004 through telephone interviews. Probable PTSD was found among 6.6% of Jews and 18.0% of Arabs. Predictors of probable PTSD in a multivariate model for Jews were refusal to report income, being traditionally religious, economic and psychosocial resource loss, greater traumatic growth, and lower social support. For Arabs, predictors were low education and economic resource loss among those exposed to terrorism. Findings for only those directly exposed to terrorism were similar to those for the overall national sample. PMID:18302179

The association of exposure, risk, and resiliency factors with PTSD among Jews and Arabs exposed to repeated acts of terrorism in Israel.

PubMed

Hobfoll, Stevan E; Canetti-Nisim, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J; Palmieri, Patrick A; Varley, Joseph D; Galea, Sandro

2008-02-01

Israel has faced ongoing terrorism since the beginning of the Al Aqsa Intifada in September 2000. The authors examined risk and resiliency factors associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among 1,117 Jews and 394 Arab adult citizens of Israel during August and September 2004 through telephone interviews. Probable PTSD was found among 6.6% of Jews and 18.0% of Arabs. Predictors of probable PTSD in a multivariate model for Jews were refusal to report income, being traditionally religious, economic and psychosocial resource loss, greater traumatic growth, and lower social support. For Arabs, predictors were low education and economic resource loss among those exposed to terrorism. Findings for only those directly exposed to terrorism were similar to those for the overall national sample.

Mineral resources of the Gila Lower Box Wilderness Study Area, Grant and Hilalgo counties, New Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richter, D.H.; Lawrence, V.A.; Barton, H.

1988-01-01

This report presents an investigation to appraise the identified resources and to assess the potential for undiscovered resources of the Gila Lower Box Wilderness Study Area, southwestern New Mexico. Identified resources of manganese occur within 0.25 mi of the study area boundary, but none are known within the study area. The eastern part of the study area has a high mineral resource potential for manganese, and the western part has a moderate mineral resource potential for manganese. The entire study area has a low mineral and energy resource potential for other metals, gemstone, geothermal energy, oil and gas.

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) 4.0 Enhanced Functionalities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, M.; Keenan, A. B.; Saile, L.; Boley, L. A.; Walton, M. E.; Shah, R. V.; Kerstman, E. L.; Myers, J. G.

2015-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model is a probabilistic simulation model that uses input data on 100 medical conditions to simulate expected medical events, the resources required to treat, and the resulting impact to the mission for specific crew and mission characteristics. The newest development version of IMM, IMM v4.0, adds capabilities that remove some of the conservative assumptions that underlie the current operational version, IMM v3. While IMM v3 provides the framework to simulate whether a medical event occurred, IMMv4 also simulates when the event occurred during a mission timeline. This allows for more accurate estimation of mission time lost and resource utilization. In addition to the mission timeline, IMMv4.0 features two enhancements that address IMM v3 assumptions regarding medical event treatment. Medical events in IMMv3 are assigned the untreated outcome if any resource required to treat the event was unavailable. IMMv4 allows for partially treated outcomes that are proportional to the amount of required resources available, thus removing the dichotomous treatment assumption. An additional capability IMMv4 is to use an alternative medical resource when the primary resource assigned to the condition is depleted, more accurately reflecting the real-world system. The additional capabilities defining IMM v4.0the mission timeline, partial treatment, and alternate drug result in more realistic predicted mission outcomes. The primary model outcomes of IMM v4.0 for the ISS6 mission, including mission time lost, probability of evacuation, and probability of loss of crew life, are be compared to those produced by the current operational version of IMM to showcase enhanced prediction capabilities.

Risk markers for disappearance of pediatric Web resources

PubMed Central

Hernández-Borges, Angel A.; Jiménez-Sosa, Alejandro; Torres-Álvarez de Arcaya, Maria L.; Macías-Cervi, Pablo; Gaspar-Guardado, Maria A.; Ruíz-Rabaza, Ana

2005-01-01

Objectives: The authors sought to find out whether certain Webometric indexes of a sample of pediatric Web resources, and some tests based on them, could be helpful predictors of their disappearance. Methods: The authors performed a retrospective study of a sample of 363 pediatric Websites and pages they had followed for 4 years. Main measurements included: number of resources that disappeared, number of inbound links and their annual increment, average daily visits to the resources in the sample, sample compliance with the quality criteria of 3 international organizations, and online time of the Web resources. Results: On average, 11% of the sample disappeared annually. However, 13% of these were available again at the end of follow up. Disappearing and surviving Websites did not show differences in the variables studied. However, surviving Web pages had a higher number of inbound links and higher annual increment in inbound links. Similarly, Web pages that survived showed higher compliance with recognized sets of quality criteria than those that disappeared. A subset of 14 quality criteria whose compliance accounted for 90% of the probability of online permanence was identified. Finally, a progressive increment of inbound links was found to be a marker of good prognosis, showing high specificity and positive predictive value (88% and 94%, respectively). Conclusions: The number of inbound links and annual increment of inbound links could be useful markers of the permanence probability for pediatric Web pages. Strategies that assure the Web editors' awareness of their Web resources' popularity could stimulate them to improve the quality of their Websites. PMID:16059427

Interactions between drought and soil biogeochemistry: scaling from molecules to meters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimel, J.; Schaeffer, S. M.

2011-12-01

Water is the perhaps the single most critical resource for life, yet most terrestrial ecosystems experience regular drought. Reduced water potential causes physiological stress; reduced diffusion limits resource availability when microbes may need resources to acclimate. Most biogeochemical models, however, have assumed that soil processes either slow down or stop during drought. But organisms survive and enzymes remain viable. In California, as soils stay dry through the long summer drought, microbial biomass actually increases and pools of extractable organic C increase, probably because extracellular enzymes continue to break down plant detritus (notably roots). Yet 14C suggests that in deeper soils, the pulse of C released on rewetting comes from pools with turnover times of as long as 800 years. What are the mechanisms that regulate these complex dynamics? They appear to involve differential moisture sensitivity for the activity of extracellular enzymes, substrate diffusion, and microbial metabolism. Rewetting not only redistributes materials made available during the drought, but it also disrupts aggregates and may make previously-protected substrates available as well. We have used several methods to simply capture these linkages between water and carbon in models that are applicable at the ecosystem scale and that could improve our ability to model biogeochemical cycles in arid and semi-arid ecosystems. One is a simple empirical modification to the DAYCENT model while the other is a mechanistic model that incorporates microbial dry-season processes.

Assessing long-term water demand of constantine province in Kébir-Rhumel Mediterranean catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiniouar, H.; Hani, A.; Younsi, A.

2017-02-01

By mid-century, in the southern Mediterranean countries, levies probably reach the limit level of renewable water resources. Algeria is one of the poorest countries in renewable water resources, with an annual storage capacity of 14.6 million m3 in the Mediterranean coastal watersheds, representing 7% of the land area and accounts for 90 % of total surface runoff of the country. In this paper, we assess water demand to meet the needs of water users in Constantine province. The latter is located in the Kébir-Rhumel Mediterranean basin under semi-arid climate with relatively high growth rate of population, agricultural and industrial activities. Using Water Evaluation And Planning system (WEAP), we built a model for managing water demand of Constantine province. A business as usual and five scenarii of «water demand " were calculated by WEAP model to simulate the uncertainties over the period of 20 years (2008-2027) : (1) Population growth, (2) increase in irrigated crop lands, (3) decrease in basic drinking water consumption, (4) decrease in basic irrigation water consumption and (5) increase in basic industrial water consumption. The results showed that scenario 3 is the best alternative scenario and the most efficient by reducing drinking water demand for about 12 Mm3 in 20 years, and thus preserve reaching the limits of water resources potentialities.

Mineral Resources of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area, Mohave County, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Floyd; Jachens, Robert C.; Miller, Robert J.; Turner, Robert L.; Knepper, Daniel H.; Pitkin, James A.; Keith, William J.; Mariano, John; Jones, Stephanie L.; Korzeb, Stanley L.

1986-01-01

At the request of the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, approximately 113,500 acres of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area (AZ-020-028/029) were evaluated for mineral resources and mineral resource potential. In this report, the area studied is referred to as the 'wilderness study area' or 'study area'; any reference to the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area refers only to that part of the wilderness study area for which a mineral survey was requested. This study area is located in west-central Arizona. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines conducted geological, geochemical, and geophysical surveys to appraise the identified mineral resources (known) and assess the mineral resource potential (undiscovered) of the study area. fieldwork for this report was carried out largely in 1986-1989. There is a 1-million short ton indicated subeconomic resource of clinoptilolite-mordenite zeolite and an additional inferred resource of 2 million short tons near McHeffy Butte, approximately 2 miles west of the study area. A perlite deposit in the southeast corner of the study area contains an inferred subeconomic resource totaling 13 million short tons. An inferred subeconomic resource of gold in 225 short tons of quartz having a grade of 0.01 8 troy ounces per short ton is present at the Cook mine, 0.5 miles west of the study area. The northwestern part of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area has high mineral resource potential for gold and silver. The south-central part of the study area has one area of moderate and one area north of this south-central part has low mineral resource potential for gold and silver in and near Warm Springs Canyon; the mineral resource potential for gold is also moderate in three small areas in the southern part and one area in the northeastern part of the study area. The mineral resource potential for zeolite is high for the area surrounding the McHeffy Butte prospect and for one area in the southern part of the study area. Two areas inside the south and southeast boundaries of the study area have high mineral resource potential for perlite. The potential for ka: olinite resources is moderate in two areas in the southern part of the study area. The southern part of the study area has low resource potential for perlite and zeolite. Geothermal energy resource potential of the study area is low. The study area has no resource potential for oil and gas.

Methodology of risk assessment of loss of water resources due to climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Israfilov, Yusif; Israfilov, Rauf; Guliyev, Hatam; Afandiyev, Galib

2016-04-01

For sustainable development and management of rational use of water resources of Azerbaijan Republic it is actual to forecast their changes taking into account different scenarios of climate changes and assessment of possible risks of loss of sections of water resources. The major part of the Azerbaijani territory is located in the arid climate and the vast majority of water is used in the national economic production. An optimal use of conditional groundwater and surface water is of great strategic importance for economy of the country in terms of lack of common water resources. Low annual rate of sediments, high evaporation and complex natural and hydrogeological conditions prevent sustainable formation of conditioned resources of ground and surface water. In addition, reserves of fresh water resources are not equally distributed throughout the Azerbaijani territory. The lack of the common water balance creates tension in the rational use of fresh water resources in various sectors of the national economy, especially in agriculture, and as a result, in food security of the republic. However, the fresh water resources of the republic have direct proportional dependence on climatic factors. 75-85% of the resources of ground stratum-pore water of piedmont plains and fracture-vein water of mountain regions are formed by the infiltration of rainfall and condensate water. Changes of climate parameters involve changes in the hydrological cycle of the hydrosphere and as a rule, are reflected on their resources. Forecasting changes of water resources of the hydrosphere with different scenarios of climate change in regional mathematical models allowed estimating the extent of their relationship and improving the quality of decisions. At the same time, it is extremely necessary to obtain additional data for risk assessment and management to reduce water resources for a detailed analysis, forecasting the quantitative and qualitative parameters of resources, and also for optimization the use of water resources. In this regard, we have developed the methodology of risk assessment including statistical fuzzy analysis of the relationship "probability-consequences", classification of probabilities, the consequences on degree of severity and risk. The current methodology allow providing the possibility of practical use of the obtained results and giving effectual help in the sustainable development and reduction of risk degree of optimal use of water resources of the republic and, as a consequence, the national strategy of economic development.

Mineral resource potential map of the Sugarloaf Roadless Area, San Bernardino County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powell, Robert E.; Matti, Jonathan C.; Cox, Brett F.; Oliver, Howard W.; Wagini, Alexander; Campbell, Harry W.

1983-01-01

Geologic, geochemical, and geophysical investigations and a survey of mines and prospects indicate that the Sugaloaf Roadless Area contains subeconomic graphite and magnesian marble resources. Parts of the area have a low potential for the occurrence of additional low-grade graphite resources, but there is no potential for additional magnesian marble resources within the roadless area. Sand, gravel, and construction stone other than carbonate rocks are found in the roadless area, but similar or better quality materials are abundant and more accessible outside the area. The roadless area has no identified energy mineral resources, but parts of the area have a low to moderate potential for low-grade uranium resources. There are no identified metallic mineral resources within the area, and there is no evidence of a potential for the occurrence of such resources. No previously unknown mineral occurrence was located during this study.

Temporal Resource Partitioning and Interspecific Correlations in a Warm, Temperate Climate Assemblage of Dung Beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae).

PubMed

Sullivan, Gregory T; Ozman-Sullivan, Sebahat K; Bourne, Anne; Lumaret, Jean-Pierre; Zeybekoglu, Unal; Zalucki, Myron P; Baxter, Greg

2017-01-01

Guilds of dung dwelling and tunneling dung beetles coexist in local assemblages in warm temperate regions, despite the tendency of dwellers to be inferior competitors. A field experiment on the Black Sea coast of Turkey examined the role of temporal resource partitioning in their coexistence. Standardized dung pads deposited at 4 h intervals through a 24 h period in summer were collected 12, 24, or 48 h later. Adults from 10 tunneling and seven dung dwelling species were collected. The tunnelers contributed a high proportion of both total abundance and biomass. There was a significant effect of dung deposition time and exposure period on mean tunneler abundance. Mean tunneler abundance was nearly seven times higher in dung deposited at 06:00 than at 18:00. The dwellers reduced the potential for competitive interactions with tunnelers by relatively uniform dispersal across the six dung deposition times. The distinctly different dung use patterns by dwellers and tunnelers demonstrated temporal resource partitioning. Interspecific correlation coefficients were also determined because interspecific relationships are at the core of resource partitioning. Total tunneler and dweller abundances were not correlated. Overall, there were strong positive correlations between tunneling species and low correlations between tunneling and dwelling species, and between dwelling species. The five most abundant tunnelers, from two tribes and three genera, were strongly positively correlated. There were substantial size differences among the four most abundant tunnelers that probably facilitate their coexistence. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

43 CFR 11.22 - Sampling of potentially injured natural resources.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Sampling of potentially injured natural resources. 11.22 Section 11.22 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS Preassessment Phase § 11.22 Sampling of potentially injured natural resources...

43 CFR 11.22 - Sampling of potentially injured natural resources.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Sampling of potentially injured natural resources. 11.22 Section 11.22 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS Preassessment Phase § 11.22 Sampling of potentially injured natural resources...

Biocapacity optimization in regional planning

PubMed Central

Guo, Jianjun; Yue, Dongxia; Li, Kai; Hui, Cang

2017-01-01

Ecological overshoot has been accelerating across the globe. Optimizing biocapacity has become a key to resolve the overshoot of ecological demand in regional sustainable development. However, most literature has focused on reducing ecological footprint but ignores the potential of spatial optimization of biocapacity through regional planning of land use. Here we develop a spatial probability model and present four scenarios for optimizing biocapacity of a river basin in Northwest China. The potential of enhanced biocapacity and its effects on ecological overshoot and water consumption in the region were explored. Two scenarios with no restrictions on croplands and water use reduced the overshoot by 29 to 53%, and another two scenarios which do not allow croplands and water use to increase worsened the overshoot by 11 to 15%. More spatially flexible transition rules of land use led to higher magnitude of change after optimization. However, biocapacity optimization required a large amount of additional water resources, casting considerable pressure on the already water-scarce socio-ecological system. Our results highlight the potential for policy makers to manage/optimize regional land use which addresses ecological overshoot. Investigation on the feasibility of such spatial optimization complies with the forward-looking policies for sustainable development and deserves further attention. PMID:28112224

Oil spill contamination probability in the southeastern Levantine basin.

PubMed

Goldman, Ron; Biton, Eli; Brokovich, Eran; Kark, Salit; Levin, Noam

2015-02-15

Recent gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea led to multiple operations with substantial economic interest, and with them there is a risk of oil spills and their potential environmental impacts. To examine the potential spatial distribution of this threat, we created seasonal maps of the probability of oil spill pollution reaching an area in the Israeli coastal and exclusive economic zones, given knowledge of its initial sources. We performed simulations of virtual oil spills using realistic atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The resulting maps show dominance of the alongshore northerly current, which causes the high probability areas to be stretched parallel to the coast, increasing contamination probability downstream of source points. The seasonal westerly wind forcing determines how wide the high probability areas are, and may also restrict these to a small coastal region near source points. Seasonal variability in probability distribution, oil state, and pollution time is also discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2009-01-01

Estimating the likelihood of tsunamis occurring along the U.S. Atlantic coast critically depends on knowledge of tsunami source probability. We review available information on both earthquake and landslide probabilities from potential sources that could generate local and transoceanic tsunamis. Estimating source probability includes defining both size and recurrence distributions for earthquakes and landslides. For the former distribution, source sizes are often distributed according to a truncated or tapered power-law relationship. For the latter distribution, sources are often assumed to occur in time according to a Poisson process, simplifying the way tsunami probabilities from individual sources can be aggregated. For the U.S. Atlantic coast, earthquake tsunami sources primarily occur at transoceanic distances along plate boundary faults. Probabilities for these sources are constrained from previous statistical studies of global seismicity for similar plate boundary types. In contrast, there is presently little information constraining landslide probabilities that may generate local tsunamis. Though there is significant uncertainty in tsunami source probabilities for the Atlantic, results from this study yield a comparative analysis of tsunami source recurrence rates that can form the basis for future probabilistic analyses.

Public-Interest and Level-of-Evidence Considerations in Cold Fusion Public Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grinshaw, Thomas

2008-03-01

Cold fusion (CF) protagonists and antagonists would no doubt agree that scientific processes have been challenged in the CF case. The public interest in CF turns on two questions: What are the potential benefits? What is the probability that CF is ``real''? Potential benefits have been agreed on since CF announcement in 1989. The probability of CF reality may be assessed based on level of evidence (LoE): preponderance of evidence (PoE); clear and convincing evidence (CCE); and beyond a reasonable doubt (BRD). PoE, from civil law, indicates a probability of 50% or higher. BRD, from criminal law, has a probability approaching 90%. CCE, in between, thus has a 70-75% probability. CF experimental evidence, based on: 1) initial affirmations, 2) the large number of corroborations since marginalization, and 3) particularly demonstrative experiments, reasonably indicates at least a PoE level of evidence for excess heat. A case can also be made for a CCE (but probably not for a BRD) LoE. In either the PoE or CCE scenario a clear need is demonstrated for change in policy toward CR, given its potential benefits to humanity.

A Predictive Analysis of the Department of Defense Distribution System Utilizing Random Forests

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

resources capable of meeting both customer and individual resource constraints and goals while also maximizing the global benefit to the supply...and probability rules to determine the optimal red wine distribution network for an Italian-based wine producer. The decision support model for...combinations of factors that will result in delivery of the highest quality wines . The model’s first stage inputs basic logistics information to look

Tsirelson's bound and supersymmetric entangled states

PubMed Central

Borsten, L.; Brádler, K.; Duff, M. J.

2014-01-01

A superqubit, belonging to a (2|1)-dimensional super-Hilbert space, constitutes the minimal supersymmetric extension of the conventional qubit. In order to see whether superqubits are more non-local than ordinary qubits, we construct a class of two-superqubit entangled states as a non-local resource in the CHSH game. Since super Hilbert space amplitudes are Grassmann numbers, the result depends on how we extract real probabilities and we examine three choices of map: (1) DeWitt (2) Trigonometric and (3) Modified Rogers. In cases (1) and (2), the winning probability reaches the Tsirelson bound pwin=cos2π/8≃0.8536 of standard quantum mechanics. Case (3) crosses Tsirelson's bound with pwin≃0.9265. Although all states used in the game involve probabilities lying between 0 and 1, case (3) permits other changes of basis inducing negative transition probabilities. PMID:25294964

Mineral resources of the Meadow Valley Range Wilderness Study Area, Lincoln and Clark counties, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pampeyan, E.H.; Blank, H.R. Jr.; Campbell, H.W.

1988-01-01

The authors report that no mines or active prospects are located within the study area. The only identified resource is perlite. The northern part of the study area has moderate resource potential for zeolites,marekanite (Apache tears), agate, and opaline rock associated with the perlite, and tin. The southern part of the study area has low resource potential for sediment-hosted gold, silver, zinc, copper, and lead. The study area has moderate potential for oil and gas resources. Identified resources of vanadium are present outside the study area and about 800,000 tons of subeconomic metalliferous resources are inferred in the outcrop area,more » however the potential for undiscovered vanadium resources within the immediately adjacent study area is unknown.« less

Landslide Hazard Probability Derived from Inherent and Dynamic Determinants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, Ronda; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan

2016-04-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach combines an empirical inherent landslide probability with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining routed recharge from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model run in a Monte Carlo simulation. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by adjusting the dynamic model of stability with an empirically-based scalar representing the inherent stability of the landscape, creating a probabilistic quantitative measure of geohazard prediction at a 30-m resolution. Climatology, soil, and topography control the dynamic nature of hillslope stability and the empirical information further improves the discriminating ability of the integrated model. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex, a rugged terrain with nearly 2,700 m (9,000 ft) of vertical relief, covering 2757 sq km (1064 sq mi) in northern Washington State, U.S.A.

Incorporating Resource Protection Constraints in an Analysis of Landscape Fuel-Treatment Effectiveness in the Northern Sierra Nevada, CA, USA.

PubMed

Dow, Christopher B; Collins, Brandon M; Stephens, Scott L

2016-03-01

Finding novel ways to plan and implement landscape-level forest treatments that protect sensitive wildlife and other key ecosystem components, while also reducing the risk of large-scale, high-severity fires, can prove to be difficult. We examined alternative approaches to landscape-scale fuel-treatment design for the same landscape. These approaches included two different treatment scenarios generated from an optimization algorithm that reduces modeled fire spread across the landscape, one with resource-protection constrains and one without the same. We also included a treatment scenario that was the actual fuel-treatment network implemented, as well as a no-treatment scenario. For all the four scenarios, we modeled hazardous fire potential based on conditional burn probabilities, and projected fire emissions. Results demonstrate that in all the three active treatment scenarios, hazardous fire potential, fire area, and emissions were reduced by approximately 50 % relative to the untreated condition. Results depict that incorporation of constraints is more effective at reducing modeled fire outputs, possibly due to the greater aggregation of treatments, creating greater continuity of fuel-treatment blocks across the landscape. The implementation of fuel-treatment networks using different planning techniques that incorporate real-world constraints can reduce the risk of large problematic fires, allow for landscape-level heterogeneity that can provide necessary ecosystem services, create mixed forest stand structures on a landscape, and promote resilience in the uncertain future of climate change.

Incorporating the effects of socioeconomic uncertainty into priority setting for conservation investment.

PubMed

McBride, Marissa F; Wilson, Kerrie A; Bode, Michael; Possingham, Hugh P

2007-12-01

Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.

Intraoperative crisis resource management during a non-intubated video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery

PubMed Central

Gálvez, Carlos; Rivera-Cogollos, María Jesus; Galiana-Ivars, María; Bolufer, Sergio; Martínez-Adsuar, Francisco

2015-01-01

The management of surgical and medical intraoperative emergencies are included in the group of high acuity (high potential severity of an event and the patient impact) and low opportunity (the frequency in which the team is required to manage the event). This combination places the patient into a situation where medical errors could happen more frequently. Although medical error are ubiquitous and inevitable we should try to establish the necessary knowledge, skills and attitudes needed for effective team performance and to guide the development of a critical event. This strategy would probably reduce the incidence of error and improve decision-making. The way to apply it comes from the application of the management of critical events in the airline industry. Its use in a surgical environment is through the crisis resource management (CRM) principles. The CRM tries to develop all the non-technical skills necessary in a critical situation, but not only that, also includes all the tools needed to prevent them. The purpose of this special issue is to appraise and summarize the design, implementation, and efficacy of simulation-based CRM training programs for a specific surgery such as the non-intubated video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery. PMID:26046052

Identification of human-carnivore conflict hotspots to prioritize mitigation efforts.

PubMed

Broekhuis, Femke; Cushman, Samuel A; Elliot, Nicholas B

2017-12-01

Human-carnivore conflict is a primary driver of carnivore declines worldwide and resolving these conflicts is a conservation priority. However, resources to mitigate conflicts are limited and should be focused on areas of highest priority. We conducted 820 semistructured interviews with community members living within Kenya's Maasai Mara ecosystem. A multiscale analysis was used to determine the influence of husbandry and environmental factors on livestock depredation inside livestock enclosures (bomas). Areas with a high proportion of closed habitat and protected areas had the highest risk of depredation. Depredation was most likely to occur at weak bomas and at households where there were fewer dogs. We used the results to identify potential conflict hotspots by mapping the probability of livestock depredation across the landscape. 21.4% of the landscape was classified as high risk, and within these areas, 53.4% of the households that were interviewed had weak bomas. Synthesis and applications . With limited resources available to mitigate human-carnivore conflicts, it is imperative that areas are identified where livestock is most at risk of depredation. Focusing mitigation measures on high-risk areas may reduce conflict and lead to a decrease in retaliatory killings of predators.

Hindsight bias doesn't always come easy: causal models, cognitive effort, and creeping determinism.

PubMed

Nestler, Steffen; Blank, Hartmut; von Collani, Gernot

2008-09-01

Creeping determinism, a form of hindsight bias, refers to people's hindsight perceptions of events as being determined or inevitable. This article proposes, on the basis of a causal-model theory of creeping determinism, that the underlying processes are effortful, and hence creeping determinism should disappear when individuals lack the cognitive resources to make sense of an outcome. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants were asked to read a scenario while they were under either low or high processing load. Participants who had the cognitive resources to make sense of the outcome perceived it as more probable and necessary than did participants under high processing load or participants who did not receive outcome information. Experiment 3 was designed to separate 2 postulated subprocesses and showed that the attenuating effect of processing load on hindsight bias is not due to a disruption of the retrieval of potential causal antecedents but to a disruption of their evaluation. Together the 3 experiments show that the processes underlying creeping determinism are effortful, and they highlight the crucial role of causal reasoning in the perception of past events. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Architecture Framework for Trapped-Ion Quantum Computer based on Performance Simulation Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahsan, Muhammad

The challenge of building scalable quantum computer lies in striking appropriate balance between designing a reliable system architecture from large number of faulty computational resources and improving the physical quality of system components. The detailed investigation of performance variation with physics of the components and the system architecture requires adequate performance simulation tool. In this thesis we demonstrate a software tool capable of (1) mapping and scheduling the quantum circuit on a realistic quantum hardware architecture with physical resource constraints, (2) evaluating the performance metrics such as the execution time and the success probability of the algorithm execution, and (3) analyzing the constituents of these metrics and visualizing resource utilization to identify system components which crucially define the overall performance. Using this versatile tool, we explore vast design space for modular quantum computer architecture based on trapped ions. We find that while success probability is uniformly determined by the fidelity of physical quantum operation, the execution time is a function of system resources invested at various layers of design hierarchy. At physical level, the number of lasers performing quantum gates, impact the latency of the fault-tolerant circuit blocks execution. When these blocks are used to construct meaningful arithmetic circuit such as quantum adders, the number of ancilla qubits for complicated non-clifford gates and entanglement resources to establish long-distance communication channels, become major performance limiting factors. Next, in order to factorize large integers, these adders are assembled into modular exponentiation circuit comprising bulk of Shor's algorithm. At this stage, the overall scaling of resource-constraint performance with the size of problem, describes the effectiveness of chosen design. By matching the resource investment with the pace of advancement in hardware technology, we find optimal designs for different types of quantum adders. Conclusively, we show that 2,048-bit Shor's algorithm can be reliably executed within the resource budget of 1.5 million qubits.

Confronting Decision Cliffs: Diagnostic Assessment of Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms' Performance for Addressing Uncertain Environmental Thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, V. L.; Singh, R.; Reed, P. M.; Keller, K.

2014-12-01

As water resources problems typically involve several stakeholders with conflicting objectives, multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) are now key tools for understanding management tradeoffs. Given the growing complexity of water planning problems, it is important to establish if an algorithm can consistently perform well on a given class of problems. This knowledge allows the decision analyst to focus on eliciting and evaluating appropriate problem formulations. This study proposes a multi-objective adaptation of the classic environmental economics "Lake Problem" as a computationally simple but mathematically challenging MOEA benchmarking problem. The lake problem abstracts a fictional town on a lake which hopes to maximize its economic benefit without degrading the lake's water quality to a eutrophic (polluted) state through excessive phosphorus loading. The problem poses the challenge of maintaining economic activity while confronting the uncertainty of potentially crossing a nonlinear and potentially irreversible pollution threshold beyond which the lake is eutrophic. Objectives for optimization are maximizing economic benefit from lake pollution, maximizing water quality, maximizing the reliability of remaining below the environmental threshold, and minimizing the probability that the town will have to drastically change pollution policies in any given year. The multi-objective formulation incorporates uncertainty with a stochastic phosphorus inflow abstracting non-point source pollution. We performed comprehensive diagnostics using 6 algorithms: Borg, MOEAD, eMOEA, eNSGAII, GDE3, and NSGAII to ascertain their controllability, reliability, efficiency, and effectiveness. The lake problem abstracts elements of many current water resources and climate related management applications where there is the potential for crossing irreversible, nonlinear thresholds. We show that many modern MOEAs can fail on this test problem, indicating its suitability as a useful and nontrivial benchmarking problem.

Implications of stillage land disposal: a critical review on the impacts of fertigation.

PubMed

Fuess, Lucas Tadeu; Garcia, Marcelo Loureiro

2014-12-01

Stillage is the main wastewater from ethanol production, generated specifically in the step of distillation. Regardless the feedstock, stillage contains high concentrations of organic matter, potassium and sulfates, as well as acidic and corrosive characteristics. Currently almost the entire volume of stillage generated in Brazilian distilleries is directed to the fertigation of sugarcane fields, due to its fertilizer character. However, the polluting potential of stillage characterizes its land disposal as problematic, considering probable negative impacts on the soil structure and water resources in case of excessive dosages. Since the literature lacks critical content describing clearly the cons related to the reuse of stillage in agriculture in the long-term, this review aimed to assess the real polluting potential of stillage, and the implications of its land disposal and/or discharge into water bodies. Evidence from the literature indicate that the main obstacles to reuse stillage in natura include risks of soil salinization; clogging of pores, reduction in the microbial activity and the significant depletion of dissolved oxygen concentrations in water bodies; contamination per nitrates and eutrophication; soil structure destabilization due to high concentrations of potassium and sodium; and, possible acidification of soil and water resources, considering the low pH of stillage (∼4,5). Toxic metals, such as cadmium, lead, copper, chromium and nickel, were also identified in concentrations above the recommended limits in stillage samples, increasing risks to human health (e.g. carcinogenic potential) and to crops (e.g. productivity loss). In short, although some studies report benefits from the land application of stillage, its treatment prior to disposal is essential to make fertigation an environmentally suitable practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the petroleum, coal and geothermal resources of the economic community of West African States (ECOWAS) Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mattick, Robert E.; Spencer, Frank D.; Zihlman, Frederick N.

1982-01-01

Approximately 85 percent of the land area of the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) region is covered by basement rocks (igneous and highly metamorphosed rocks) or relatively thin layers of Paleozoic, Upper Precambrian, and Continental Intercalaire sedimentary rocks. These areas have little or no petroleum potential. The ECOWAS region can be divided into 13 sedimentary basins on the basis of analysis of the geologic framework of Africa. These 13 basins can be further grouped into 8 categories on the basis of similarities in stratigraphy, geologic history, and probable hydrocarbon potential. The author has attempted to summarize the petroleummore » potential within the geologic framework of the region. The coal discoveries can be summarized as follows: the Carboniferous section in the Niger Basin; the Paleocene-Maestrichtian, Maestrichtian, and Eocene sections in the Niger Delta and Benin; the Maestrichtian section in the Senegal Basin; and the Pleistocene section in Sierra Leone. The only proved commercial deposits are the Paleocene-Maestrichtian and Maestrichtian subbituminous coal beds of the Niger Delta. Some of the lignite deposits of the Niger Delta and Senegal Basin, however, may be exploitable in the future. Published literature contains limited data on heat-flow values in the ECOWAS region. It is inferred, however, from the few values available and the regional geology that the development of geothermal resources, in general, would be uneconomical. Exceptions may include a geopressured zone in the Niger Delta and areas of recent tectonic activity in the Benue Trough and Cameroon. Development of the latter areas under present economic conditions is not feasible.« less

Methane hydrate - A major reservoir of carbon in the shallow geosphere?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kvenvolden, K.A.

1988-01-01

Methane hydrates are solids composed of rigid cages of water molecules that enclose methane. Sediment containing methane hydrates is found within specific pressure-temperature conditions that occur in regions of permafrost and beneath the sea in outer continental margins. Because methane hydrates are globally widespread and concentrate methane within the gas-hydrate structure, the potential amount of methane present in the shallow geosphere at subsurface depths of < ???2000 m is very large. However, estimates of the amount are speculative and range over about three orders of magnitude, from 2 ?? 103 to 4 ?? 106 Gt (gigatons = 1015 g) of carbon, depending on the assumptions made. The estimate I favor is ??? 1 ?? 104 Gt of carbon. The estimated amount of organic carbon in the methane-hydrate reservoir greatly exceeds that in many other reservoirs of the global carbon cycle - for example, the atmosphere (3.6 Gt); terrestrial biota (830 Gt); terrestrial soil, detritus and peat (1960 Gt); marine biota (3 Gt); and marine dissolved materials (980 Gt). In fact, the amount of carbon may exceed that in all fossil fuel deposits (5 ?? 103 Gt). Because methane hydrates contain so much methane and occur in the shallow geosphere, they are of interest as a potential resource of natural gas and as a possible source of atmospheric methane released by global warming. As a potential resource, methane hydrates pose both engineering and production problems. As a contributor to a changing global climate, destabilized methane hydrates, particularly those in shallow, nearshore regions of the Arctic Ocean, may have some effect, but this effect will probably be minimal, at least during the next 100 years. ?? 1988.

Remote sensing of potential lunar resources. 2: High spatial resolution mapping of spectral reflectance ratios and implications for nearside mare TiO2 content`

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melendrez, David E.; Johnson, Jeffrey R.; Larson, Stephen M.; Singer, Robert B.

1994-01-01

High spatial resolution maps illustrating variations in spectral reflectance 400/560 nm ratio values have been generated for the following mare regions: (1) the border between southern Mare Serenitatis and northern Mare Tranquillitatis (including the MS-2 standard area and Apollo 17 landing site), (2) central Mare Tranquillitatis, (3) Oceanus Procellarum near Seleucus, and (4) southern Oceanus Procellarum and Flamsteed. We have also obtained 320-1000 nm reflectance spectra of several sites relative to MS-2 to facilitate scaling of the images and provide additional information on surface composition. Inferred TiO2 abundances for these mare regions have been determined using an empirical calibration which relates the weight percent TiO2 in mature mare regolith to the observed 400/560 nm ratio. Mare areas with high TiO2 abundances are probably rich in ilmenite (FeTiO3) a potential lunar resource. The highest potential TiO2 concentrations we have identified in the nearside maria occur in central Mare Tranquillitatis. Inferred TiO2 contents for these areas are greater than 9 wt% and are spatially consistent with the highest-TiO2 regions mapped previously at lower spatial resolution. We note that the morphology of surface units with high 400/560 nm ratio values increases in complexity at higher spatial resolutions. Comparisons have been made with previously published geologic maps, Lunar Orbiter IV, and ground-based images, and some possible morphologic correlatins have been found between our mapped 400/560 nm ratio values and volcanic landforms such as lava flows, mare domes, and collapse pits.

Mineral resources of the Gila Lower Box Wilderness Study Area, Grant and Hidalgo counties, New Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richter, D.H.; Lawrence, V.A.; Barton, H.

1988-01-01

The US Bureau of Mines and the US Geological Survey conducted a joint investigate to appraise the identified resources and to assess the potential for undiscovered resources of the Gila Lower Box Wilderness Study Area, southwestern New Mexico. Identified resources of manganese occur within 0.25 mi of the study area boundary, but none are known within the study area. The eastern part of the study area has a high mineral resource potential for manganese, and the western part has a moderate mineral resource potential for manganese. The entire study area has a low mineral and energy resource potential for othermore » metals, gemstone, geothermal energy, oil and gas.« less

Investigation of the geothermal potential of the UK. The Southampton (Western Esplanade) geothermal well: A preliminary assessment of the resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downing, R. A.; Allen, D. J.; Burgess, W. G.; Smith, I. E.; Edmunds, W. M.

1982-05-01

The Southampton No 1 (Western Esplanade) geothermal well which was drilled for the development of hot brines in the Triassic sandstones was tested. The aquifer was intersected at a depth of 1729 m. The upper 24 m contained thin, medium to coarse grained sandstones which are the main water bearing horizons. The static water level is about 80 m below ground level. Gas lifting with nitrogen indicate that the sandstones contain a brine with a salinity of 125 g/l at a temperature of 76 deg C. The maximum yield of the well was 30 l/s for a pressure reduction of 4.2 MN/sq m. The transmissivity of the aquifer is about 5 Dm. A hydraulic barrier, probably a fault, occurs close to the well.

Target Detection of Quantum Illumination Receiver Based on Photon-subtracted Entanglement State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, Jiao; Liu, HongJun; Huang, Nan; Wang, ZhaoLu

2017-12-01

We theoretically propose a quantum illumination receiver based on the ideal photon-subtracted two-mode squeezed state (PSTMSS) to efficiently detect the noise-hidden target. This receiver is generated by applying an optical parametric amplifier (OPA) to the cross correlation detection. With analyzing the output performance, it is found that OPA as a preposition technology of the receiver can contribute to the PSTMSS by significantly reducing the error probability than that of the general two-mode squeezed state (TMSS). Comparing with TMSS, the signal-to-noise ratio of quantum illumination based on ideal PSTMSS and OPA is improved more than 4 dB under an optimal gain of OPA. This work may provide a potential improvement in the application of accurate target detection when two kinds of resource have the identical real squeezing parameter.

The impact of hurricane Katrina on the mental and physical health of low-income parents in New Orleans.

PubMed

Rhodes, Jean; Chan, Christian; Paxson, Christina; Rouse, Cecilia Elena; Waters, Mary; Fussell, Elizabeth

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to document changes in mental and physical health among 392 low-income parents exposed to Hurricane Katrina and to explore how hurricane-related stressors and loss relate to post-Katrina well-being. The prevalence of probable serious mental illness doubled, and nearly half of the respondents exhibited probable posttraumatic stress disorder. Higher levels of hurricane-related loss and stressors were generally associated with worse health outcomes, controlling for baseline sociodemographic and health measures. Higher baseline resources predicted fewer hurricane-associated stressors, but the consequences of stressors and loss were similar regardless of baseline resources. Adverse health consequences of Hurricane Katrina persisted for a year or more and were most severe for those experiencing the most stressors and loss. Long-term health and mental health services are needed for low-income disaster survivors, especially those who experience disaster-related stressors and loss.

The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Mental and Physical Health of Low-Income Parents in New Orleans

PubMed Central

Rhodes, Jean; Chan, Christian; Paxson, Christina; Rouse, Cecilia Elena; Waters, Mary; Fussell, Elizabeth

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to document changes in mental and physical health among 392 low-income parents exposed to Hurricane Katrina and to explore how hurricane-related stressors and loss relate to post-Katrina well being. The prevalence of probable serious mental illness doubled, and nearly half of the respondents exhibited probable PTSD. Higher levels of hurricane-related loss and stressors were generally associated with worse health outcomes, controlling for baseline socio-demographic and health measures. Higher baseline resources predicted fewer hurricane-associated stressors, but the consequences of stressors and loss were similar regardless of baseline resources. Adverse health consequences of Hurricane Katrina persisted for a year or more, and were most severe for those experiencing the most stressors and loss. Long-term health and mental health services are needed for low-income disaster survivors, especially those who experience disaster-related stressors and loss. PMID:20553517

Expected Utility Distributions for Flexible, Contingent Execution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bresina, John L.; Washington, Richard

2000-01-01

This paper presents a method for using expected utility distributions in the execution of flexible, contingent plans. A utility distribution maps the possible start times of an action to the expected utility of the plan suffix starting with that action. The contingent plan encodes a tree of possible courses of action and includes flexible temporal constraints and resource constraints. When execution reaches a branch point, the eligible option with the highest expected utility at that point in time is selected. The utility distributions make this selection sensitive to the runtime context, yet still efficient. Our approach uses predictions of action duration uncertainty as well as expectations of resource usage and availability to determine when an action can execute and with what probability. Execution windows and probabilities inevitably change as execution proceeds, but such changes do not invalidate the cached utility distributions, thus, dynamic updating of utility information is minimized.

Aggregation of estimated numbers of undiscovered deposits: an R-script with an example from the Chu Sarysu Basin, Kazakhtan: Chapter B in Global mineral resource assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuenemeyer, John H.; Zientek, Michael L.; Box, Stephen E.

2011-01-01

Mineral resource assessments completed by the U.S. Geological Survey during the past three decades express geologically based estimates of numbers of undiscovered mineral deposits as probability distributions. Numbers of undiscovered deposits of a given type are estimated in geologically defined regions. Using Monte Carlo simulations, these undiscovered deposit estimates are combined with tonnage and grade models to derive a probability distribution describing amounts of commodities and rock that could be present in undiscovered deposits within a study area. In some situations, it is desirable to aggregate the assessment results from several study areas. This report provides a script developed in open-source statistical software, R, that aggregates undiscovered deposit estimates of a given type, assuming independence, total dependence, or some degree of correlation among aggregated areas, given a user-specified correlation matrix.

Formula for the Transition Probability Induced by Long-range Potential Terms Varying as R-8 and R-10 for Atom-dimer Collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, N. F.; Robson, D.; Grant, M. A.

1990-12-01

An explicit formula is derived for the transition probability between two different states of the atom-dimer collisional system governed by second-order long-range interaction potential terms varying as R-8 and R-10.

Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boslough, M.

2011-12-01

Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based global temperature anomaly data published by NASS GISS. Typical climate contracts predict the probability of a specified future temperature, but not the probability density or best estimate. One way to generate a probability distribution would be to create a family of contracts over a range of specified temperatures and interpret the price of each contract as its exceedance probability. The resulting plot of probability vs. anomaly is the market-based cumulative density function. The best estimate can be determined by interpolation, and the market-based uncertainty estimate can be based on the spread. One requirement for an effective prediction market is liquidity. Climate contracts are currently considered somewhat of a novelty and often lack sufficient liquidity, but climate change has the potential to generate both tremendous losses for some (e.g. agricultural collapse and extreme weather events) and wealth for others (access to natural resources and trading routes). Use of climate markets by large stakeholders has the potential to generate the liquidity necessary to make them viable. Sandia is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. DoE's NNSA under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Evaluating the risk of industrial espionage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bott, T.F.

1998-12-31

A methodology for estimating the relative probabilities of different compromise paths for protected information by insider and visitor intelligence collectors has been developed based on an event-tree analysis of the intelligence collection operation. The analyst identifies target information and ultimate users who might attempt to gain that information. The analyst then uses an event tree to develop a set of compromise paths. Probability models are developed for each of the compromise paths that user parameters based on expert judgment or historical data on security violations. The resulting probability estimates indicate the relative likelihood of different compromise paths and provide anmore » input for security resource allocation. Application of the methodology is demonstrated using a national security example. A set of compromise paths and probability models specifically addressing this example espionage problem are developed. The probability models for hard-copy information compromise paths are quantified as an illustration of the results using parametric values representative of historical data available in secure facilities, supplemented where necessary by expert judgment.« less

Forecasting the Depletion of Transboundary Groundwater Resources in Hyper-Arid Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoni, A.; Heggy, E.

2014-12-01

The increase in awareness about the overexploitation of transboundary groundwater resources in hyper-arid environments that occurred in the last decades has highlighted the need to better map, monitor and manage these resources. Climate change, economic and population growth are driving forces that put more pressure on these fragile but fundamental resources. The aim of our approach is to address the question of whether or not groundwater resources, especially non-renewable, could serve as "backstop" water resource during water shortage periods that would probably affect the drylands in the upcoming 100 years. The high dependence of arid regions on these resources requires prudent management to be able to preserve their fossil aquifers and exploit them in a more sustainable way. We use the NetLogo environment with the FAO Aquastat Database to evaluate if the actual trends of extraction, consumption and use of non-renewable groundwater resources would remain feasible with the future climate change impacts and the population growth scenarios. The case studies selected are three: the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System, shared between Egypt, Libya, Sudan and Chad; the North Western Sahara Aquifer System, with Algeria, Tunisia and Libya and the Umm Radhuma Dammam Aquifer, in its central part, shared between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain. The reason these three fossil aquifers were selected are manifold. First, they represent properly transboundary non-renewable groundwater resources, with all the implications that derive from this, i.e. the necessity of scientific and socio-political cooperation among riparians, the importance of monitoring the status of shared resources and the need to elaborate a shared management policy. Furthermore, each country is characterized by hyper-arid climatic conditions, which will be exacerbated in the next century by climate change and lead to probable severe water shortage periods. Together with climate change, the rate of population growth will be at unprecedented levels for these areas causing the water demand of these nations to grow largely. Our preliminary simulation results suggest that fossil aquifers cannot be used as a long-term solution for water shortage in hyper-arid environments. Aquifers in the Arabian Peninsula are forecasted to be depleted within decades.

Summary mineral resource appraisal of the Richfield 1 degree x 2 degrees Quadrangle, west-central Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steven, Thomas August; Morris, Hal T.

1987-01-01

The mineral resource potential of the Richfield 1? x 2? quadrangle, Utah, has been appraised using geological, geophysical, geochemical, and remote-sensing techniques. These studies have led to many publications giving basic data and interpretations; of these, a series of 18 maps at 1:250,000 and 1:500,000 scales summarizing aspects of the geology, geophysics, geochemistry, and remote sensing is designated the CUSMAP (Conterminous United States Mineral Appraisal Program) folio. This circular uses the data shown on these maps to appraise the mineral resource potential of the quadrangle. The oldest rocks exposed in the Richfield quadrangle are small patches of Early Proterozoic (1.7 billion years old) gneiss and schist on the west side of the Mineral Mountains. These rocks presumably formed the basement on which many thousands of meters of Late Proterozoic, Paleozoic, and lower Mesozoic sedimentary strata were deposited. These rocks were deformed during the Late Cretaceous Sevier orogeny when Precambrian and Paleozoic strata in the western part of the quadrangle were thrust relatively eastward across Paleozoic and Mesozoic strata in the eastern part of the quadrangle. Late Cretaceous and early Tertiary highlands above the overthrust belt were eroded and much of the debris was deposited in broad basins east of the belt. Volcanism in Oligocene and earliest Miocene time formed an east-northeast-trending belt of calcalkalic volcanoes across the southern half of the quadrangle. In early Miocene time, the composition of the volcanic rocks changed to a bimodal assemblage of mafic rocks and high-silica alkali rhyolite that has been erupted episodically ever since. Syngenetic mineral resources developed during formation of both sedimentary and volcanic rocks. These include limestone and dolomite, silica-rich sandstone, metalliferous black shale, evaporite deposits, zeolite deposits, pumice, cinders and scoria, and evaporitic or diagenetic deposits in playa environments. Most of these deposits need to have markets established, or extraction and fabrication techniques developed, for them to be utilized. Most epigenetic deposits are of volcanogenic-hydrothermal origin. Deposits associated with calc-alkalic igneous activity largely contain Cu, Pb, Zn, Au, and Ag, and occur in a variety of types zoned around core intrusions. Younger deposits are mostly associated with silicic igneous centers belonging to the bimodal mafic-silicic igneous association. Resources associated with this latter group are likely to contain one or more of the elements Mo, W, U, Sn, Be, and F, as well as Pb, Zn, Au, and Ag. Alunite and kaolinite deposits are found at many mineralized centers. Most epigenetically mineralized areas expose only the upper, near-surface parts of the different hydrothermal systems; most of whatever mineral deposits formed in these systems probably still exist at depth, awaiting discovery. Our conclusion is that many mineralized areas have excellent possibilities for the occurrence of mineral resources. Each of the many identified centers of mineralization is discussed briefly in this report and an estimate made of its resource potential.

Pedagogical Utilization and Assessment of the Statistic Online Computational Resource in Introductory Probability and Statistics Courses.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D; Sanchez, Juana; Christou, Nicolas

2008-01-01

Technology-based instruction represents a new recent pedagogical paradigm that is rooted in the realization that new generations are much more comfortable with, and excited about, new technologies. The rapid technological advancement over the past decade has fueled an enormous demand for the integration of modern networking, informational and computational tools with classical pedagogical instruments. Consequently, teaching with technology typically involves utilizing a variety of IT and multimedia resources for online learning, course management, electronic course materials, and novel tools of communication, engagement, experimental, critical thinking and assessment.The NSF-funded Statistics Online Computational Resource (SOCR) provides a number of interactive tools for enhancing instruction in various undergraduate and graduate courses in probability and statistics. These resources include online instructional materials, statistical calculators, interactive graphical user interfaces, computational and simulation applets, tools for data analysis and visualization. The tools provided as part of SOCR include conceptual simulations and statistical computing interfaces, which are designed to bridge between the introductory and the more advanced computational and applied probability and statistics courses. In this manuscript, we describe our designs for utilizing SOCR technology in instruction in a recent study. In addition, present the results of the effectiveness of using SOCR tools at two different course intensity levels on three outcome measures: exam scores, student satisfaction and choice of technology to complete assignments. Learning styles assessment was completed at baseline. We have used three very different designs for three different undergraduate classes. Each course included a treatment group, using the SOCR resources, and a control group, using classical instruction techniques. Our findings include marginal effects of the SOCR treatment per individual classes; however, pooling the results across all courses and sections, SOCR effects on the treatment groups were exceptionally robust and significant. Coupling these findings with a clear decrease in the variance of the quantitative examination measures in the treatment groups indicates that employing technology, like SOCR, in a sound pedagogical and scientific manner enhances overall the students' understanding and suggests better long-term knowledge retention.

Pedagogical Utilization and Assessment of the Statistic Online Computational Resource in Introductory Probability and Statistics Courses

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.; Sanchez, Juana; Christou, Nicolas

2009-01-01

Technology-based instruction represents a new recent pedagogical paradigm that is rooted in the realization that new generations are much more comfortable with, and excited about, new technologies. The rapid technological advancement over the past decade has fueled an enormous demand for the integration of modern networking, informational and computational tools with classical pedagogical instruments. Consequently, teaching with technology typically involves utilizing a variety of IT and multimedia resources for online learning, course management, electronic course materials, and novel tools of communication, engagement, experimental, critical thinking and assessment. The NSF-funded Statistics Online Computational Resource (SOCR) provides a number of interactive tools for enhancing instruction in various undergraduate and graduate courses in probability and statistics. These resources include online instructional materials, statistical calculators, interactive graphical user interfaces, computational and simulation applets, tools for data analysis and visualization. The tools provided as part of SOCR include conceptual simulations and statistical computing interfaces, which are designed to bridge between the introductory and the more advanced computational and applied probability and statistics courses. In this manuscript, we describe our designs for utilizing SOCR technology in instruction in a recent study. In addition, present the results of the effectiveness of using SOCR tools at two different course intensity levels on three outcome measures: exam scores, student satisfaction and choice of technology to complete assignments. Learning styles assessment was completed at baseline. We have used three very different designs for three different undergraduate classes. Each course included a treatment group, using the SOCR resources, and a control group, using classical instruction techniques. Our findings include marginal effects of the SOCR treatment per individual classes; however, pooling the results across all courses and sections, SOCR effects on the treatment groups were exceptionally robust and significant. Coupling these findings with a clear decrease in the variance of the quantitative examination measures in the treatment groups indicates that employing technology, like SOCR, in a sound pedagogical and scientific manner enhances overall the students’ understanding and suggests better long-term knowledge retention. PMID:19750185

Monte Carlo method for computing density of states and quench probability of potential energy and enthalpy landscapes.

PubMed

Mauro, John C; Loucks, Roger J; Balakrishnan, Jitendra; Raghavan, Srikanth

2007-05-21

The thermodynamics and kinetics of a many-body system can be described in terms of a potential energy landscape in multidimensional configuration space. The partition function of such a landscape can be written in terms of a density of states, which can be computed using a variety of Monte Carlo techniques. In this paper, a new self-consistent Monte Carlo method for computing density of states is described that uses importance sampling and a multiplicative update factor to achieve rapid convergence. The technique is then applied to compute the equilibrium quench probability of the various inherent structures (minima) in the landscape. The quench probability depends on both the potential energy of the inherent structure and the volume of its corresponding basin in configuration space. Finally, the methodology is extended to the isothermal-isobaric ensemble in order to compute inherent structure quench probabilities in an enthalpy landscape.

Avian response to shade‐layer restoration in coffee plantations in Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irizarry, Amarilys D.; Collazo, Jaime A.; Pacifici, Krishna; Reich, Brian J.; Battle, Kathryn E.

2018-01-01

Documenting the evolving processes associated with habitat restoration and how long it takes to detect avian demographic responses is crucial to evaluate the success of restoration initiatives and to identify ways to improve their effectiveness. The importance of this endeavor prompted the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service to evaluate their sun‐to‐shade coffee restoration program in Puerto Rico initiated in 2003. We quantified the responses of 12 resident avian species using estimates of local occupancy and extinction probabilities based on surveys conducted in 2015–2017 at 65 restored farms grouped according to time‐since‐initial‐restoration (TSIR): new (2011–2014), intermediate (2007–2010), and old (2003–2006). We also surveyed 40 forest sites, which served as reference sites. Vegetation complexity increased with TSIR, ranging between 35 and 40% forest cover in farms 6–9 years TSIR. Forest specialists (e.g. Loxigilla portoricencis) exhibited highest average occupancy in farms initially classified as intermediate (6–9 years) and old (>10 years), paralleling occupancy in secondary forests. Occupancy of open‐habitat specialists (e.g. Tiaris olivaceus) was more variable, but higher in recently restored farms. Restoring the shade layer has the potential to heighten ecological services derived from forest specialists (e.g. frugivores) without losing the services of many open‐habitat specialists (e.g. insectivores). Annual local extinction probability for forest specialists decreased with increasing habitat complexity, strengthening the potential value of shade restoration as a tool to enhance habitat for avifauna that evolved in forested landscapes.

Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Horton, Radley M.; E Smerdon, Jason; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-04-01

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ∽31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ∽86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.

Fruit and vegetable consumption in the former Soviet Union: the role of individual- and community-level factors.

PubMed

Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Rocco, Lorenzo; Suhrcke, Marc; Roberts, Bayard; McKee, Martin

2015-10-01

To explain patterns of fruit and vegetable consumption in nine former Soviet Union countries by exploring the influence of a range of individual- and community-level determinants. Cross-sectional nationally representative surveys and area profiles were undertaken in 2010 in nine countries of the former Soviet Union as part of the Health in Times of Transition (HITT) study. Individual- and area-level determinants were analysed, taking into account potential confounding at the individual and area level. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. Adult survey respondents (n 17 998) aged 18-95 years. Being male, increasing age, lack of education and lack of financial resources were associated with lower probability of consuming adequate amounts of fruit or vegetables. Daily fruit or vegetable consumption was positively correlated with the number of shops selling fruit and vegetables (for women) and with the number of convenience stores (for men). Billboard advertising of snacks and sweet drinks was negatively related to daily fruit or vegetable consumption, although the reverse was true for billboards advertising soft drinks. Men living near a fast-food outlet had a lower probability of fruit or vegetable consumption, while the opposite was true for the number of local food restaurants. Overall fruit and vegetable consumption in the former Soviet Union is inadequate, particularly among lower socio-economic groups. Both individual- and community-level factors play a role in explaining inadequate nutrition and thus provide potential entry points for policy interventions, while the nuanced influence of community factors informs the agenda for future research.

Navigability Potential of Washington Rivers and Streams Determined with Hydraulic Geometry and a Geographic Information System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Magirl, Christopher S.; Olsen, Theresa D.

2009-01-01

Using discharge and channel geometry measurements from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations and data from a geographic information system, regression relations were derived to predict river depth, top width, and bottom width as a function of mean annual discharge for rivers in the State of Washington. A new technique also was proposed to determine bottom width in channels, a parameter that has received relatively little attention in the geomorphology literature. These regression equations, when combined with estimates of mean annual discharge available in the National Hydrography Dataset, enabled the prediction of hydraulic geometry for any stream or river in the State of Washington. Predictions of hydraulic geometry can then be compared to thresholds established by the Washington State Department of Natural Resources to determine navigability potential of rivers. Rivers with a mean annual discharge of 1,660 cubic feet per second or greater are 'probably navigable' and rivers with a mean annual discharge of 360 cubic feet per second or less are 'probably not navigable'. Variance in the dataset, however, leads to a relatively wide range of prediction intervals. For example, although the predicted hydraulic depth at a mean annual discharge of 1,660 cubic feet per second is 3.5 feet, 90-percent prediction intervals indicate that the actual hydraulic depth may range from 1.8 to 7.0 feet. This methodology does not determine navigability - a legal concept determined by federal common law - instead, this methodology is a tool for predicting channel depth, top width, and bottom width for rivers and streams in Washington.

Application of Wind Fetch and Wave Models for Habitat Rehabilitation and Enhancement Projects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rohweder, Jason J.; Rogala, James T.; Johnson, Barry L.; Anderson, Dennis; Clark, Steve; Chamberlin, Ferris; Runyon, Kip

2008-01-01

Models based upon coastal engineering equations have been developed to quantify wind fetch length and several physical wave characteristics including significant height, length, peak period, maximum orbital velocity, and shear stress. These models, developed using Environmental Systems Research Institute's ArcGIS 9.2 Geographic Information System platform, were used to quantify differences in proposed island construction designs for three Habitat Rehabilitation and Enhancement Projects (HREPs) in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers St. Paul District (Capoli Slough and Harpers Slough) and St. Louis District (Swan Lake). Weighted wind fetch was calculated using land cover data supplied by the Long Term Resource Monitoring Program (LTRMP) for each island design scenario for all three HREPs. Figures and graphs were created to depict the results of this analysis. The difference in weighted wind fetch from existing conditions to each potential future island design was calculated for Capoli and Harpers Slough HREPs. A simplistic method for calculating sediment suspension probability was also applied to the HREPs in the St. Paul District. This analysis involved determining the percentage of days that maximum orbital wave velocity calculated over the growing seasons of 2002-2007 exceeded a threshold value taken from the literature where fine unconsolidated sediments may become suspended. This analysis also evaluated the difference in sediment suspension probability from existing conditions to the potential island designs. Bathymetric data used in the analysis were collected from the LTRMP and wind direction and magnitude data were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center.

Cyber Contingency Analysis version 1.x

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Contingency analysis based approach for quantifying and examining the resiliency of a cyber system in respect to confidentiality, integrity and availability. A graph representing an organization's cyber system and related resources is used for the availability contingency analysis. The mission critical paths associated with an organization are used to determine the consequences of a potential contingency. A node (or combination of nodes) are removed from the graph to analyze a particular contingency. The value of all mission critical paths that are disrupted by that contingency are used to quantify its severity. A total severity score can be calculated based onmore » the complete list of all these contingencies. A simple n1 analysis can be done in which only one node is removed at a time for the analysis. We can also compute nk analysis, where k is the number of nodes to simultaneously remove for analysis. A contingency risk score can also be computed, which takes the probability of the contingencies into account. In addition to availability, we can also quantify confidentiality and integrity scores for the system. These treat user accounts as potential contingencies. The amount (and type) of files that an account can read to is used to compute the confidentiality score. The amount (and type) of files that an account can write to is used to compute the integrity score. As with availability analysis, we can use this information to compute total severity scores in regards to confidentiality and integrity. We can also take probability into account to compute associated risk scores.« less

Investigation of Bose-Einstein Condensates in q-Deformed Potentials with First Order Perturbation Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nutku, Ferhat; Aydıner, Ekrem

2018-02-01

The Gross-Pitaevskii equation, which is the governor equation of Bose-Einstein condensates, is solved by first order perturbation expansion under various q-deformed potentials. Stationary probability distributions reveal one and two soliton behavior depending on the type of the q-deformed potential. Additionally a spatial shift of the probability distribution is found for the dark soliton solution, when the q parameter is changed.

Is D-dimer used according to clinical algorithms in the diagnostic work-up of patients with suspicion of venous thromboembolism? A study in six European countries.

PubMed

Kristoffersen, Ann Helen; Ajzner, Eva; Rogic, Dunja; Sozmen, Eser Y; Carraro, Paolo; Faria, Ana Paula; Watine, Joseph; Meijer, Piet; Sandberg, Sverre

2016-06-01

Clinical algorithms consisting of pre-test probability estimation and D-dimer testing are recommended in diagnostic work-up for suspected venous thromboembolism (VTE). The aim of this study was to explore how physicians working in emergency departments investigated patients suspected to have VTE. A questionnaire with two case histories related to the diagnosis of suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) (Case A) and deep venous thrombosis (DVT) (Case B) were sent to physicians in six European countries. The physicians were asked to estimate pre-test probability of VTE, and indicate their clinical actions. In total, 487 physicians were included. Sixty percent assessed pre-test probability of PE to be high in Case A, but 7% would still request only D-dimer and 11% would exclude PE if D-dimer was negative, which could be hazardous. Besides imaging, a D-dimer test was requested by 41%, which is a "waste of resources" (extra costs and efforts, no clinical benefit). For Case B, 92% assessed pre-test probability of DVT to be low. Correctly, only D-dimer was requested by 66% of the physicians, while 26% requested imaging, alone or in addition to D-dimer, which is a "waste of resources". These results should encourage scientific societies to improve the dissemination and knowledge of the current recommendations for the diagnosis of VTE. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Limitations of gravity models in predicting the spread of Eurasian watermilfoil.

PubMed

Rothlisberger, John D; Lodge, David M

2011-02-01

The effects of non-native invasive species are costly and environmentally damaging, and resources to slow their spread and reduce their effects are scarce. Models that accurately predict where new invasions will occur could guide the efficient allocation of resources to slow colonization. We assessed the accuracy of a model that predicts the probability of colonization of lakes in Wisconsin by Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum). We based this predictive model on 9 years (1990-1999) of sequence data of milfoil colonization of lakes larger than 25 ha (n =1803). We used milfoil colonization sequence data from 2000 to 2006 to test whether the model accurately predicted the number of lakes that actually were colonized from among the 200 lakes identified as being most likely to be colonized. We found that a lake's predicted probability of colonization was not correlated with whether a lake actually was colonized. Given the low predictability of colonization of specific lakes, we compared the efficacy of preventing milfoil from leaving occupied sites, which does not require predicting colonization probability, with protecting vacant sites from being colonized, which does require predicting colonization probability. Preventing organisms from leaving colonized sites reduced the likelihood of spread more than protecting vacant sites. Although we focused on the spread of a single species in a particular region, our results show the shortcomings of gravity models in predicting the spread of numerous non-native species to a variety of locations via a wide range of vectors. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Randomness and diversity matter in the maintenance of the public resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Aizhi; Zhang, Yanling; Chen, Xiaojie; Sun, Changyin

2017-03-01

Most previous models about the public goods game usually assume two possible strategies, i.e., investing all or nothing. The real-life situation is rarely all or nothing. In this paper, we consider that multiple strategies are adopted in a well-mixed population, and each strategy represents an investment to produce the public goods. Past efforts have found that randomness matters in the evolution of fairness in the ultimatum game. In the framework involving no other mechanisms, we study how diversity and randomness influence the average investment of the population defined by the mean value of all individuals' strategies. The level of diversity is increased by increasing the strategy number, and the level of randomness is increased by increasing the mutation probability, or decreasing the population size or the selection intensity. We find that a higher level of diversity and a higher level of randomness lead to larger average investment and favor more the evolution of cooperation. Under weak selection, the average investment changes very little with the strategy number, the population size, and the mutation probability. Under strong selection, the average investment changes very little with the strategy number and the population size, but changes a lot with the mutation probability. Under intermediate selection, the average investment increases significantly with the strategy number and the mutation probability, and decreases significantly with the population size. These findings are meaningful to study how to maintain the public resource.

Discrete Event Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Key Leader Engagements

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

to offer. GreenPlayer agents require four parameters, pC, pKLK, pTK, and pRK , which give probabilities for being corrupt, having key leader...HandleMessageRequest component. The same parameter constraints apply to these four parameters. The parameter pRK is the same parameter from the CreatePlayers component...whether the local Green player has resource critical knowledge by using the parameter pRK . It schedules an EndResourceKnowledgeRequest event, passing

Strategic Defense Initiative Demonstration/Validation Program Environmental Assessment. Ground-Based Surveillance and Tracking System (GSTS),

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-08-01

conflicts between the facility and local standards, and to evaluate the probability of conflict resulting from any planned expansions. 2-2 Visual Resources...on staffing and housing for the facility itself is contained in Table 2-7. Additional data on the socio - economic background of Ebeye, including...resources, noise, and socio - economics. As a result of that evaluation, consequences vere assigned to one of three categories: insignificant, mitigable, or

Optimizing Medical Kits for Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keenan, A. B,; Foy, Millennia; Myers, G.

2014-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulation outcomes describing the impact of medical events on the mission may be used to optimize the allocation of resources in medical kits. Efficient allocation of medical resources, subject to certain mass and volume constraints, is crucial to ensuring the best outcomes of in-flight medical events. We implement a new approach to this medical kit optimization problem. METHODS We frame medical kit optimization as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing a dynamic programming technique. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 different mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the probability of evacuation and maximizing the Crew Health Index (CHI) for each mission subject to mass and volume constraints. Simulation outcomes using these kits were also compared to outcomes using kits optimized..RESULTS The optimized medical kits generated by the algorithm described here resulted in predicted mission outcomes more closely approached the unlimited-resource scenario for Crew Health Index (CHI) than the implementation in under all optimization priorities. Furthermore, the approach described here improves upon in reducing evacuation when the optimization priority is minimizing the probability of evacuation. CONCLUSIONS This algorithm provides an efficient, effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions using the Integrated Medical Model.

30 CFR 282.3 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Resources BUREAU OF OCEAN ENERGY MANAGEMENT, REGULATION, AND ENFORCEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR..., exploration, testing, or mining activities; or (3) In which there is a reasonable probability of significant... overylying waters (when obtained for geochemical analysis) acquired while conducting postlease mining...

Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allsopp, Jim; And Others

1996-01-01

Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

LANDSAT follow-on experiment: Gulf of Mexico menhaden and thread herring resources investigation. [Mississippi and Louisiana

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Savastano, K. (Principal Investigator); Kemmerer, A. J.; Faller, K.

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The most significant achievement realized is the successful mapping of high probability fishing areas from LANDSAT MSS data for two Mississippi Sound missions.

Crested Wheatgrass Impedes the Spread of Medusahead

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Establishing crested wheatgrass around the edge of medusahead infestations slowed the spread of the infestations into surrounding noninfested native plant communities. Crested wheatgrass decreased the availability of soil resources to medusahead and probably physically intercepted some of the dispe...

Quasi Path Restoration: A post-failure recovery scheme over pre-allocated backup resource for elastic optical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Dharmendra Singh; Babu, Sarath; Manoj, B. S.

2018-03-01

Spectrum conflict during primary and backup routes assignment in elastic optical networks results in increased resource consumption as well as high Bandwidth Blocking Probability. In order to avoid such conflicts, we propose a new scheme, Quasi Path Restoration (QPR), where we divide the available spectrum into two: (1) primary spectrum (for primary routes allocation) and (2) backup spectrum (for rerouting the data on link failures). QPR exhibits three advantages over existing survivable strategies such as Shared Path Protection (SPP), Primary First Fit Backup Last Fit (PFFBLF), Jointly Releasing and re-establishment Defragmentation SPP (JRDSSPP), and Path Restoration (PR): (1) the conflict between primary and backup spectrum during route assignment is completely eliminated, (2) upon a link failure, connection recovery requires less backup resources compared to SPP, PFFBLF, and PR, and (3) availability of the same backup spectrum on each link improves the recovery guarantee. The performance of our scheme is analyzed with different primary backup spectrum partitions on varying connection-request demands and number of frequency slots. Our results show that QPR provides better connection recovery guarantee and Backup Resources Utilization (BRU) compared to bandwidth recovery of PR strategy. In addition, we compare QPR with Shared Path Protection and Primary First-Fit Backup Last Fit strategies in terms of Bandwidth Blocking Probability (BBP) and average frequency slots per connection request. Simulation results show that BBP of SPP, PFFBLF, and JRDSPP varies between 18.59% and 14.42%, while in QPR, BBP ranges from 2.55% to 17.76% for Cost239, NSFNET, and ARPANET topologies. Also, QPR provides bandwidth recovery between 93.61% and 100%, while in PR, the recovery ranges from 86.81% to 98.99%. It is evident from our analysis that QPR provides a reasonable trade-off between bandwidth blocking probability and connection recoverability.

Potential effects of anticipated coal mining on salinity of the Price, San Rafael, and Green Rivers, Utah. Water Resources Investigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lindskov, K.L.

1986-01-01

The overall objective of the report is to describe the potential cumulative impacts of anticipated coal mining on the dissolved-solids concentrations in the Price, San Rafael, and Green Rivers. The changes considered were (1) salt loads in ground water that would be intercepted by mines and discharged to nearby streams in order to dewater the mines and (2) salt loads resulting from surface disturbance associated with the anticipated mining. The anticipated salt loads were estimated from (1) reports prepared under contract with the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement--Cumulative Hydrologic Impact Assessments of several drainages tributary to the Pricemore » and San Rafael Rivers that may be impacted by the mining, (2) information from determinations of probable hydrologic impacts in individual permit applications submitted to the Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining, (3) monitoring reports for the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System furnished to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and (4) other miscellaneous monitoring data for the permit areas.« less

Biochemical mutagens affect the preservation of fungi and biodiversity estimations.

PubMed

Paterson, R Russell M; Lima, Nelson

2013-01-01

Many fungi have significant industrial applications or biosafety concerns and maintaining the original characteristics is essential. The preserved fungi have to represent the situation in nature for posterity, biodiversity estimations, and taxonomic research. However, spontaneous fungal mutations and secondary metabolites affecting producing fungi are well known. There is increasing interest in the preservation of microbes in Biological Resource Centers (BRC) to ensure that the organisms remain viable and stable genetically. It would be anathema if they contacted mutagens routinely. However, for the purpose of this discussion, there are three potential sources of biochemical mutagens when obtaining individual fungi from the environment: (a) mixtures of microorganisms are plated routinely onto growth media containing mutagenic antibiotics to control overgrowth by contaminants, (b) the microbial mixtures may contain microorganisms capable of producing mutagenic secondary metabolites, and (c) target fungi for isolation may produce "self" mutagens in pure culture. The probability that these compounds could interact with fungi undermines confidence in the preservation process and the potential effects of these biochemical mutagens are considered for the first time on strains held in BRC in this review.

When violence pays: a cost-benefit analysis of aggressive behavior in animals and humans.

PubMed

Georgiev, Alexander V; Klimczuk, Amanda C E; Traficonte, Daniel M; Maestripieri, Dario

2013-07-18

An optimization analysis of human behavior from a comparative perspective can improve our understanding of the adaptiveness of human nature. Intra-specific competition for resources provides the main selective pressure for the evolution of violent aggression toward conspecifics, and variation in the fitness benefits and costs of aggression can account for inter-specific and inter-individual differences in aggressiveness. When aggression reflects competition for resources, its benefits vary in relation to the characteristics of the resources (their intrinsic value, abundance, spatial distribution, and controllability) while its costs vary in relation to the characteristics of organisms and how they fight (which, in turn, affects the extent to which aggression entails risk of physical injury or death, energetic depletion, exposure to predation, psychological and physiological stress, or damage to social relationships). Humans are a highly aggressive species in comparison to other animals, probably as a result of an unusually high benefit-to-cost ratio for intra-specific aggression. This conclusion is supported by frequent and widespread occurrence of male-male coalitionary killing and by male-female sexual coercion. Sex differences in violent aggression in humans and other species probably evolved by sexual selection and reflect different optimal competitive strategies for males and females.

A Bayesian joint probability modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Chiew, F. H. S.

2009-05-01

Seasonal forecasting of streamflows can be highly valuable for water resources management. In this paper, a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites is presented. A Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution is proposed to model the joint distribution of future streamflows and their predictors such as antecedent streamflows and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices and other climate indicators. Bayesian inference of model parameters and uncertainties is implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, leading to joint probabilistic forecasts of streamflows at multiple sites. The model provides a parametric structure for quantifying relationships between variables, including intersite correlations. The Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution has considerable flexibility for modeling a wide range of predictors and predictands. The Bayesian inference formulated allows the use of data that contain nonconcurrent and missing records. The model flexibility and data-handling ability means that the BJP modeling approach is potentially of wide practical application. The paper also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables. Results for streamflows at three river gauges in the Murrumbidgee River catchment in southeast Australia show that the BJP modeling approach has good forecast quality and that the fitted model is consistent with observed data.

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Springs Fire, Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.

2014-01-01

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. In this report, empirical models are used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Springs fire in Ventura County, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–80 percent) of debris flow for 9 of the 99 drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Predictions of debris-flow volume suggest that debris flows may entrain a significant volume of material, with 28 of the 99 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 10,000 cubic meters. These results of the relative combined hazard analysis suggest there is a moderate likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, wildlife, and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National Weather Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches, and Warnings, and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

On the objective identification of flood seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; BobéE, Bernard

2004-01-01

The determination of seasons of high and low probability of flood occurrence is a task with many practical applications in contemporary hydrology and water resources management. Flood seasons are generally identified subjectively by visually assessing the temporal distribution of flood occurrences and, then at a regional scale, verified by comparing the temporal distribution with distributions obtained at hydrologically similar neighboring sites. This approach is subjective, time consuming, and potentially unreliable. The main objective of this study is therefore to introduce a new, objective, and systematic method for the identification of flood seasons. The proposed method tests the significance of flood seasons by comparing the observed variability of flood occurrences with the theoretical flood variability in a nonseasonal model. The method also addresses the uncertainty resulting from sampling variability by quantifying the probability associated with the identified flood seasons. The performance of the method was tested on an extensive number of samples with different record lengths generated from several theoretical models of flood seasonality. The proposed approach was then applied on real data from a large set of sites with different flood regimes across Great Britain. The results show that the method can efficiently identify flood seasons from both theoretical and observed distributions of flood occurrence. The results were used for the determination of the main flood seasonality types in Great Britain.

Emergence and Evolution of Cooperation Under Resource Pressure

PubMed Central

Pereda, María; Zurro, Débora; Santos, José I.; Briz i Godino, Ivan; Álvarez, Myrian; Caro, Jorge; Galán, José M.

2017-01-01

We study the influence that resource availability has on cooperation in the context of hunter-gatherer societies. This paper proposes a model based on archaeological and ethnographic research on resource stress episodes, which exposes three different cooperative regimes according to the relationship between resource availability in the environment and population size. The most interesting regime represents moderate survival stress in which individuals coordinate in an evolutionary way to increase the probabilities of survival and reduce the risk of failing to meet the minimum needs for survival. Populations self-organise in an indirect reciprocity system in which the norm that emerges is to share the part of the resource that is not strictly necessary for survival, thereby collectively lowering the chances of starving. Our findings shed further light on the emergence and evolution of cooperation in hunter-gatherer societies. PMID:28362000

Emergence and Evolution of Cooperation Under Resource Pressure.

PubMed

Pereda, María; Zurro, Débora; Santos, José I; Briz I Godino, Ivan; Álvarez, Myrian; Caro, Jorge; Galán, José M

2017-03-31

We study the influence that resource availability has on cooperation in the context of hunter-gatherer societies. This paper proposes a model based on archaeological and ethnographic research on resource stress episodes, which exposes three different cooperative regimes according to the relationship between resource availability in the environment and population size. The most interesting regime represents moderate survival stress in which individuals coordinate in an evolutionary way to increase the probabilities of survival and reduce the risk of failing to meet the minimum needs for survival. Populations self-organise in an indirect reciprocity system in which the norm that emerges is to share the part of the resource that is not strictly necessary for survival, thereby collectively lowering the chances of starving. Our findings shed further light on the emergence and evolution of cooperation in hunter-gatherer societies.

[Dialogues on risks and health resources in general practice].

PubMed

Hollnagel, Hanne; Malterud, Kirsti

2002-11-04

The healing and preventive forces related to individuals' health resources and self-assessed knowledge have hitherto been underestimated in medicine. In this article, we draw attention to ethical and epistemological challenges in relation to values, communication, knowledge, and autonomy that are embedded in the prevailing risk-oriented epidemiology. We have developed a theoretical model for a patient-centered, salutogenetic approach with the aim of a better balance between health resources and risk factors. We briefly present results of dialogues in the general practice consultation based on key questions about self-assessed health resources. We discuss pitfalls related to causality, group-based probabilities, medicalization, and informed consent, focusing on the clinical encounter with the individual patient. By introducing a salutogenetic perspective, we hope to shift attention towards the patient's resources and strengths. Communication can mediate oppression as well as empowerment.

Emergence and Evolution of Cooperation Under Resource Pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereda, María; Zurro, Débora; Santos, José I.; Briz I Godino, Ivan; Álvarez, Myrian; Caro, Jorge; Galán, José M.

2017-03-01

We study the influence that resource availability has on cooperation in the context of hunter-gatherer societies. This paper proposes a model based on archaeological and ethnographic research on resource stress episodes, which exposes three different cooperative regimes according to the relationship between resource availability in the environment and population size. The most interesting regime represents moderate survival stress in which individuals coordinate in an evolutionary way to increase the probabilities of survival and reduce the risk of failing to meet the minimum needs for survival. Populations self-organise in an indirect reciprocity system in which the norm that emerges is to share the part of the resource that is not strictly necessary for survival, thereby collectively lowering the chances of starving. Our findings shed further light on the emergence and evolution of cooperation in hunter-gatherer societies.

43 CFR 11.22 - Sampling of potentially injured natural resources.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... resources. 11.22 Section 11.22 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS Preassessment Phase § 11.22 Sampling of potentially injured natural resources... of this part to proceed with an assessment, field sampling of natural resources should be limited to...

43 CFR 11.22 - Sampling of potentially injured natural resources.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... resources. 11.22 Section 11.22 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS Preassessment Phase § 11.22 Sampling of potentially injured natural resources... of this part to proceed with an assessment, field sampling of natural resources should be limited to...

43 CFR 11.22 - Sampling of potentially injured natural resources.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... resources. 11.22 Section 11.22 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS Preassessment Phase § 11.22 Sampling of potentially injured natural resources... of this part to proceed with an assessment, field sampling of natural resources should be limited to...

Mineral resources of the Castle Peaks Wilderness Study Area, San Bernardino County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.W.; Frisken, James G.; Jachens, Robert C.; Gese, Diann D.

1986-01-01

The Castle Peaks Wilderness Study Area (CDCA266) comprises approximately 45,000 acres in the northern New York Mountains, San Bernardino County, California. At the request of the Bureau of Land Management, 39,303 acres of the wilderness study area were studied. The area was investigated during 1982-1985 using combined geologic, geochemical, and geophysical methods. are considered preliminarily suitable for wilderness deignation. There are no mineral reserves or identified resources in the study area. Fluorspar, occurring in sparse veins, has moderate resource potential, as do silver and lead in fault zones, and gold and silver in sparse, high-grade veins and fault breccia. Each area of moderate resource potential encompasses less than one square mile. These same commodities have low resource potential in similar occurrences throughout much of the study area. In addition, there is low resource potential for gold in placer deposits, uranium in altered breccia and gouge, and rare-earth elements in pegmatite dikes. There is no resource potential for oil and gas resources over most of the study area, but the potential is unknown along its western margin. In this report, the area studied is referred to"the wilderness study area", or simply "the study area."

Developing a probability-based model of aquifer vulnerability in an agricultural region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shih-Kai; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Peng, Yi-Huei

2013-04-01

SummaryHydrogeological settings of aquifers strongly influence the regional groundwater movement and pollution processes. Establishing a map of aquifer vulnerability is considerably critical for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a novel probability-based DRASTIC model of aquifer vulnerability in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan, using indicator kriging and to determine various risk categories of contamination potentials based on estimated vulnerability indexes. Categories and ratings of six parameters in the probability-based DRASTIC model were probabilistically characterized according to the parameter classification methods of selecting a maximum estimation probability and calculating an expected value. Moreover, the probability-based estimation and assessment gave us an excellent insight into propagating the uncertainty of parameters due to limited observation data. To examine the prediction capacity of pollutants for the developed probability-based DRASTIC model, medium, high, and very high risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N exceeding 0.5 mg/L indicating the anthropogenic groundwater pollution. The analyzed results reveal that the developed probability-based DRASTIC model is capable of predicting high nitrate-N groundwater pollution and characterizing the parameter uncertainty via the probability estimation processes.

Modeling potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus) reservoir, in Argentina.

PubMed

Andreo, Verónica; Glass, Gregory; Shields, Timothy; Provensal, Cecilia; Polop, Jaime

2011-09-01

We constructed a model to predict the potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the reservoir of Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus), in Argentina. We developed an extensive database of occurrence records from published studies and our own surveys and compared two methods to model the probability of O. longicaudatus presence; logistic regression and MaxEnt algorithm. The environmental variables used were tree, grass and bare soil cover from MODIS imagery and, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database. The models performances were evaluated and compared both by threshold dependent and independent measures. The best models included tree and grass cover, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of the warmest and coldest seasons. The potential distribution maps for O. longicaudatus predicted the highest occurrence probabilities along the Andes range, from 32°S and narrowing southwards. They also predicted high probabilities for the south-central area of Argentina, reaching the Atlantic coast. The Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases coincided with mean occurrence probabilities of 95 and 77% for logistic and MaxEnt models, respectively. HPS transmission zones in Argentine Patagonia matched the areas with the highest probability of presence. Therefore, colilargos presence probability may provide an approximate risk of transmission and act as an early tool to guide control and prevention plans.

Geothermal direct heat use: Market potential/penetration analysis for Federal Region 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powell, W. (Editor); Tang, K. (Editor)

1980-01-01

A preliminary study was made of the potential for geothermal direct heat use in Arizona, California, Hawaii, and Nevada (Federal Region 9). An analysis was made of each state to: (1) define the resource, based on the latest available data; (2) assess the potential market growth for geothermal energy; and (3) estimate the market penetration, projected to 2020. Findings of the study include the following: (1) Potentially economical hydrothermal resources exist in all four states of the Region: however, the resource data base is largely incomplete, particularly for low to moderate temperature resources. (2) In terms of beneficial heat, the total hydrothermal resource identified so far for the four states is on the order of 43 Quads, including an estimated 34 Quads of high temperature resources which are suitable for direct as well as electrical applications. (3) In California, Hawaii, and Nevada, the industrial market sector has somewhat greater potential for penetration than the residential/commercial sector. In Arizona, however, the situation is reversed, due to the collocation of two major metropolitan areas (Phoenix and Tucson) with potential geothermal resources.

Quantification of the resource recovery potential of municipal solid waste incineration bottom ashes.

PubMed

Allegrini, Elisa; Maresca, Alberto; Olsson, Mikael Emil; Holtze, Maria Sommer; Boldrin, Alessio; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

2014-09-01

Municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plays an important role in many European waste management systems. However, increasing focus on resource criticality has raised concern regarding the possible loss of critical resources through MSWI. The primary form of solid output from waste incinerators is bottom ashes (BAs), which also have important resource potential. Based on a full-scale Danish recovery facility, detailed material and substance flow analyses (MFA and SFA) were carried out, in order to characterise the resource recovery potential of Danish BA: (i) based on historical and experimental data, all individual flows (representing different grain size fractions) within the recovery facility were quantified, (ii) the resource potential of ferrous (Fe) and non-ferrous (NFe) metals as well as rare earth elements (REE) was determined, (iii) recovery efficiencies were quantified for scrap metal and (iv) resource potential variability and recovery efficiencies were quantified based on a range of ashes from different incinerators. Recovery efficiencies for Fe and NFe reached 85% and 61%, respectively, with the resource potential of metals in BA before recovery being 7.2%ww for Fe and 2.2%ww for NFe. Considerable non-recovered resource potential was found in fine fraction (below 2mm), where approximately 12% of the total NFe potential in the BA were left. REEs were detected in the ashes, but the levels were two or three orders of magnitude lower than typical ore concentrations. The lack of REE enrichment in BAs indicated that the post-incineration recovery of these resources may not be a likely option with current technology. Based on these results, it is recommended to focus on limiting REE-containing products in waste for incineration and improving pre-incineration sorting initiatives for these elements. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scheduling in the Face of Uncertain Resource Consumption and Utility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor); Frank, Jeremy; Dearden, Richard

2003-01-01

We discuss the problem of scheduling tasks that consume a resource with known capacity and where the tasks have varying utility. We consider problems in which the resource consumption and utility of each activity is described by probability distributions. In these circumstances, we would like to find schedules that exceed a lower bound on the expected utility when executed. We first show that while some of these problems are NP-complete, others are only NP-Hard. We then describe various heuristic search algorithms to solve these problems and their drawbacks. Finally, we present empirical results that characterize the behavior of these heuristics over a variety of problem classes.

In-situ resource utilization for the human exploration of Mars : a Bayesian approach to valuation of precursor missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeffrey H.

2006-01-01

The need for sufficient quantities of oxygen, water, and fuel resources to support a crew on the surface of Mars presents a critical logistical issue of whether to transport such resources from Earth or manufacture them on Mars. An approach based on the classical Wildcat Drilling Problem of Bayesian decision theory was applied to the problem of finding water in order to compute the expected value of precursor mission sample information. An implicit (required) probability of finding water on Mars was derived from the value of sample information using the expected mass savings of alternative precursor missions.

Estimating Upper Bounds for Occupancy and Number of Manatees in Areas Potentially Affected by Oil from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Martin, Julien; Edwards, Holly H.; Bled, Florent; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Dupuis, Jérôme A.; Gardner, Beth; Koslovsky, Stacie M.; Aven, Allen M.; Ward-Geiger, Leslie I.; Carmichael, Ruth H.; Fagan, Daniel E.; Ross, Monica A.; Reinert, Thomas R.

2014-01-01

The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform created the largest marine oil spill in U.S. history. As part of the Natural Resource Damage Assessment process, we applied an innovative modeling approach to obtain upper estimates for occupancy and for number of manatees in areas potentially affected by the oil spill. Our data consisted of aerial survey counts in waters of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Mississippi. Our method, which uses a Bayesian approach, allows for the propagation of uncertainty associated with estimates from empirical data and from the published literature. We illustrate that it is possible to derive estimates of occupancy rate and upper estimates of the number of manatees present at the time of sampling, even when no manatees were observed in our sampled plots during surveys. We estimated that fewer than 2.4% of potentially affected manatee habitat in our Florida study area may have been occupied by manatees. The upper estimate for the number of manatees present in potentially impacted areas (within our study area) was estimated with our model to be 74 (95%CI 46 to 107). This upper estimate for the number of manatees was conditioned on the upper 95%CI value of the occupancy rate. In other words, based on our estimates, it is highly probable that there were 107 or fewer manatees in our study area during the time of our surveys. Because our analyses apply to habitats considered likely manatee habitats, our inference is restricted to these sites and to the time frame of our surveys. Given that manatees may be hard to see during aerial surveys, it was important to account for imperfect detection. The approach that we described can be useful for determining the best allocation of resources for monitoring and conservation. PMID:24670971

The influence of climate change on Tanzania's hydropower sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Boehlert, Brent; Meijer, Karen; Schellekens, Jaap; Magnell, Jan-Petter; Helbrink, Jakob; Kassana, Leonard; Liden, Rikard

2015-04-01

Economic costs induced by current climate variability are large for Tanzania and may further increase due to future climate change. The Tanzanian National Climate Change Strategy addressed the need for stabilization of hydropower generation and strengthening of water resources management. Increased hydropower generation can contribute to sustainable use of energy resources and stabilization of the national electricity grid. To support Tanzania the World Bank financed this study in which the impact of climate change on the water resources and related hydropower generation capacity of Tanzania is assessed. To this end an ensemble of 78 GCM projections from both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets was bias-corrected and down-scaled to 0.5 degrees resolution following the BCSD technique using the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as a reference. To quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change by 2035 the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set-up for Tanzania at a resolution of 3 minutes and run with all 78 GCM datasets. From the full set of projections a probable (median) and worst case scenario (95th percentile) were selected based upon (1) the country average Climate Moisture Index and (2) discharge statistics of relevance to hydropower generation. Although precipitation from the Princeton dataset shows deviations from local station measurements and the global hydrological model does not perfectly reproduce local scale hydrographs, the main discharge characteristics and precipitation patterns are represented well. The modeled natural river flows were adjusted for water demand and irrigation within the water resources model RIBASIM (both historical values and future scenarios). Potential hydropower capacity was assessed with the power market simulation model PoMo-C that considers both reservoir inflows obtained from RIBASIM and overall electricity generation costs. Results of the study show that climate change is unlikely to negatively affect the average potential of future hydropower production; it will likely make hydropower more profitable. Yet, the uncertainty in climate change projections remains large and risks are significant, adaptation strategies should ideally consider a worst case scenario to ensure robust power generation. Overall a diversified power generation portfolio, anchored in hydropower and supported by other renewables and fossil fuel-based energy sources, is the best solution for Tanzania

Mineral Resources of the Mount Nutt Wilderness Study Area, Mohave County, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Floyd; Jachens, Robert C.; Miller, Robert J.; Turner, Robert L.; Livo, Eric K.; Knepper, Daniel H.; Mariano, John; Almquist, Carl L.

1990-01-01

The Mount Nutt Wilderness Study Area (AZ-020-024) is located in the Black Mountains about 15 mi west of Kingman, Arizona. At the request of the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, approximately 27,210 acres of the wilderness study area was evaluated for mineral resources (known) and mineral resource potential (undiscovered). In this report, the area studied is referred to as the 'wilderness study area' or simply 'the study area'; any reference to the Mount Nutt Wilderness Study Area refers only to that part of the wilderness study area (27,210 acres) for which a mineral survey was requested. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines conducted geological, geochemical, and geophysical surveys to assess the identified mineral resources and mineral resource potential of the study area. Fieldwork for this report was carried out in 1987 and 1988. A gold resource totaling at least 56,000 troy oz has been identified at two sites in Secret Pass Canyon, less than 0.5 mi north of the study area. No other metallic mineral resources were identified inside the study area. An area near the center of the study area contains fire agate, a gem stone. On the basis of tonnage, site accessibility, and current production methods, this area is considered an indicated subeconomic fire-agate resource for the foreseeable future. Sand and gravel are present in the study area. An area surrounding the Tincup mine and including a small portion of the extreme north-central part of the study area has high potential for gold and low potential for silver, lead, and mercury. Three areas in the extreme northwestern, north-central, and southwestern parts of the study area have moderate potential for gold and low potential for silver, lead, and mercury. A small area near the known fire-agate resource in the south-central part of the study area has low potential for fire agate. Large areas in the eastern and central parts of the study area have low potential for perlite and zeolite resources. The entire study area has no potential for oil and gas and no potential for geothermal resources.

New parasitoid-predator associations: female parasitoids do not avoid competition with generalist predators when sharing invasive prey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chailleux, Anaïs; Wajnberg, Eric; Zhou, Yuxiang; Amiens-Desneux, Edwige; Desneux, Nicolas

2014-12-01

Optimal habitat selection is essential for species survival in ecosystems, and interspecific competition is a key ecological mechanism for many observed species association patterns. Specialized animal species are commonly affected by resource and interference competition with generalist and/or omnivorous competitors, so avoidance behavior could be expected. We hypothesize that specialist species may exploit broad range cues from such potential resource competitors (i.e., cues possibly common to various generalist and/or omnivorous predators) to avoid costly competition regarding food or reproduction, even in new species associations. We tested this hypothesis by studying short-term interactions between a native larval parasitoid and a native generalist omnivorous predator recently sharing the same invasive host/prey, the leaf miner Tuta absoluta. We observed a strong negative effect of kleptoparasitism (food resource stealing) instead of classical intraguild predation on immature parasitoids. There was no evidence that parasitoid females avoided the omnivorous predator when searching for oviposition sites, although we studied both long- and short-range known detection mechanisms. Therefore, we conclude that broad range cue avoidance may not exist in our biological system, probably because it would lead to too much oviposition site avoidance which would not be an efficient and, thus, beneficial strategy. If confirmed in other parasitoids or specialist predators, our findings may have implications for population dynamics, especially in the current context of increasing invasive species and the resulting creation of many new species associations.

How to use local resources to fight malnutrition in Madagascar? A study combining a survey and a consumer test.

PubMed

Ramaroson Rakotosamimanana, Vonimihaingo; Valentin, Dominique; Arvisenet, Gaëlle

2015-12-01

This study aimed to understand consumers' habits and belief structures concerning local food products and to develop a new snack as a way to fight against children malnutrition in Madagascar. A large variety of natural food resources grow in Madagascar, like Moringa oleifera (MO) which leaves are rich in nutrients but not consumed. First, a survey conducted in four areas of Madagascar revealed that MO leaves are known for their health benefits but infrequently consumed, probably because of their low satiating power and strong odor. In the studied areas, different levels of consumption were observed, which may be linked to varying levels of familiarity with MO by the local populations, this in turn resulting from different situations regarding geographical and historical availability. In contrary, resources such as cassava are perceived as having negative effects on health but are widely consumed because they are cheap, liked by children and satiating. The second step in the study aimed to propose products that could increase MO consumption without completely changing food practices. The acceptability of snacks associating cassava roots and MO was evaluated by means of hedonic tests performed by children. Between the snacks tested, the preferred snack contained the highest quantity of MO and was sweetened. There was no effect of area on the acceptance of the formulated snacks. This work is an evaluation of the potential of MO in the diet of malnourished population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of spatial aggregation in forensic entomology.

PubMed

Fiene, Justin G; Sword, Gregory A; Van Laerhoven, Sherah L; Tarone, Aaron M

2014-01-01

A central concept in forensic entomology is that arthropod succession on carrion is predictable and can be used to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI) of human remains. However, most studies have reported significant variation in successional patterns, particularly among replicate carcasses, which has complicated estimates of PMIs. Several forensic entomology researchers have proposed that further integration of ecological and evolutionary theory in forensic entomology could help advance the application of succession data for producing PMI estimates. The purpose of this essay is to draw attention to the role of spatial aggregation of arthropods among carrion resources as a potentially important aspect to consider for understanding and predicting the assembly of arthropods on carrion over time. We review ecological literature related to spatial aggregation of arthropods among patchy and ephemeral resources, such as carrion, and when possible integrate these results with published forensic literature. We show that spatial aggregation of arthropods across resources is commonly reported and has been used to provide fundamental insight for understanding regional and local patterns of arthropod diversity and coexistence. Moreover, two suggestions are made for conducting future research. First, because intraspecific aggregation affects species frequency distributions across carcasses, data from replicate carcasses should not be combined, but rather statistically quantified to generate occurrence probabilities. Second, we identify a need for studies that tease apart the degree to which community assembly on carrion is spatially versus temporally structured, which will aid in developing mechanistic hypotheses on the ecological factors shaping community assembly on carcasses.

Technique for Reduction of Environmental Pollution from Construction Wastes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakaeva, N. V.; Klimenko, M. Y.

2017-11-01

The results of the research on the negative impact construction wastes have on the urban environment and construction ecological safety are described. The research results are based on the statistical data and indicators calculated with the use of environmental pollution assessment in the restoration system of urban buildings technical conditions. The technique for the reduction of environmental pollution from construction wastes is scientifically based on the analytic summary of scientific and practical results for ecological safety ensuring at major overhaul and current repairs (reconstruction) of the buildings and structures. It is also based on the practical application of the probability theory method, system analysis and disperse system theory. It is necessary to execute some stages implementing the developed technique to reduce environmental pollution from construction wastes. The stages include various steps starting from information collection to the system formation with optimum performance characteristics which are more resource saving and energy efficient for the accumulation of construction wastes from urban construction units. The following tasks are solved under certain studies: basic data collection about construction wastes accumulation; definition and comparison of technological combinations at each system functional stage intended for the reduction of construction wastes discharge into the environment; assessment criteria calculation of resource saving and energy efficiency; optimum working parameters of each implementation stage are created. The urban construction technique implementation shows that the resource saving criteria are from 55.22% to 88.84%; potential of construction wastes recycling is 450 million tons of construction damaged elements (parts).

Assessment of impacts of proposed coal-resource and related economic development on water resources, Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming; a summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steele, Timothy Doak; Hillier, Donald E.

1981-01-01

Expanded mining and use of coal resources in the Rocky Mountain region of the western United States will have substantial impacts on water resources, environmental amenities, and social and economic conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey has completed a 3-year assessment of the Yampa River basin, Colorado and Wyoming, where increased coal-resource development has begun to affect the environment and quality of life. Economic projections of the overall effects of coal-resource development were used to estimate water use and the types and amounts of waste residuals that need to be assimilated into the environment. Based in part upon these projections, several physical-based models and other semiquantitative assessment methods were used to determine possible effects upon the basin's water resources. Depending on the magnitude of mining and use of coal resources in the basin, an estimated 0.7 to 2.7 million tons (0.6 to 2.4 million metric tons) of waste residuals may be discharged annually into the environment by coal-resource development and associated economic activities. If the assumed development of coal resources in the basin occurs, annual consumptive use of water, which was approximately 142,000 acre-feet (175 million cubic meters) during 1975, may almost double by 1990. In a related analysis of alternative cooling systems for coal-conversion facilities, four to five times as much water may be used consumptively in a wet-tower, cooling-pond recycling system as in once-through cooling. An equivalent amount of coal transported by slurry pipeline would require about one-third the water used consumptively by once-through cooling for in-basin conversion. Current conditions and a variety of possible changes in the water resources of the basin resulting from coal-resource development were assessed. Basin population may increase by as much as threefold between 1975 and 1990. Volumes of wastes requiring treatment will increase accordingly. Potential problems associated with ammonia-nitrogen concentrations in the Yampa River downstream from Steamboat Springs were evaluated using a waste-load assimilative-capacity model. Changes in sediment loads carried by streams due to increased coal mining and construction of roads and buildings may be apparent only locally; projected increases in sediment loads relative to historic loads from the basin are estimated to be 2 to 7 percent. Solid-waste residuals generated by coal-conversion processes and disposed of into old mine pits may cause widely dispersed ground-water contamination, based on simulation-modeling results. Projected increases in year-round water use will probably result in the construction of several proposed reservoirs. Current seasonal patterns of streamflow and of dissolvedsolids concentrations in streamflow will be altered appreciably by these reservoirs. Decreases in time-weighted mean-annual dissolved-solids concentrations of as much as 34 percent are anticipated, based upon model simulations of several configurations of proposed reservoirs. Detailed statistical analyses of water-quality conditions in the Yampa River basin were made. Regionalized maximum waterquality concentrations were estimated for possible comparison with future conditions. Using Landsat imagery and aerial photographs, potential remote-sensing applications were evaluated to monitor land-use changes and to assess both snow cover and turbidity levels in streams. The technical information provided by the several studies of the Yampa River basin assessment should be useful to regional planners and resource managers in evaluating the possible impacts of development on the basin's water resources.

Distribution of Hydrocarbon-Utilizing Microorganisms and Hydrocarbon Biodegradation Potentials in Alaskan Continental Shelf Areas

PubMed Central

Roubal, George; Atlas, Ronald M.

1978-01-01

Hydrocarbon-utilizing microorganisms were enumerated from Alaskan continental shelf areas by using plate counts and a new most-probable-number procedure based on mineralization of 14C-labeled hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbon utilizers were ubiquitously distributed, with no significant overall concentration differences between sampling regions or between surface water and sediment samples. There were, however, significant seasonal differences in numbers of hydrocarbon utilizers. Distribution of hydrocarbon utilizers within Cook Inlet was positively correlated with occurrence of hydrocarbons in the environment. Hydrocarbon biodegradation potentials were measured by using 14C-radiolabeled hydrocarbon-spiked crude oil. There was no significant correlation between numbers of hydrocarbon utilizers and hydrocarbon biodegradation potentials. The biodegradation potentials showed large seasonal variations in the Beaufort Sea, probably due to seasonal depletion of available nutrients. Non-nutrient-limited biodegradation potentials followed the order hexadecane > naphthalene ≫ pristane > benzanthracene. In Cook Inlet, biodegradation potentials for hexadecane and naphthalene were dependent on availability of inorganic nutrients. Biodegradation potentials for pristane and benzanthracene were restricted, probably by resistance to attack by available enzymes in the indigenous population. PMID:655706

Space industrialization. Volume 1: An overview. [Marekt research, technology assessment, and economic impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Benefits accruing to the United States from the investment of public and private resources in space industralization are projected. The future was examined to characterize resource pressures, requirements and supply (population, energy, materials, food). The backdrop of probable events, attitudes, and trends against which space industralization will evolve were postulated. The opportunities for space industry that would benefit earth were compiled and screened against terrestrial alternatives. A cursory market survey was conducted for the selected services and products provided by these initiatives.

Optimizing Burn Treatment in Developing Low-and Middle-Income Countries with Limited Health Care Resources (Part 2)

PubMed Central

Atiyeh, B.; Masellis, A.; Conte, C.

2009-01-01

Summary The present review of the literature aims at analysing the challenges facing burn management in low- and middleincome countries (LMICs) and exploring probable modalities to optimize burn management in these countries. In Part 1, the epidemiology of burn injuries and the formidable challenges for proper management due to limited resources and inaccessibility to sophisticated skills and technologies in LMICs were presented. Part II will discuss the actual state of burn injuries management in LMICs. PMID:21991180

A probabilistic quantum communication protocol using mixed entangled channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, Binayak S.; Dhara, Arpan

2016-05-01

Qubits are realized as polarization state of photons or as superpositions of the spin states of electrons. In this paper we propose a scheme to probabilistically teleport an unknown arbitrary two-qubit state using a non-maximally entangled GHZ- like state and a non-maximally Bell state simultaneously as quantum channels. We also discuss the success probability of our scheme. We perform POVM in the protocol which is operationally advantageous. In our scheme we show that the non-maximal quantum resources perform better than maximal resources.

A resource-dependence model of hospital contract management.

PubMed Central

Alexander, J A; Morrisey, M A

1989-01-01

This study empirically examines the determinants of hospital entry into management contracts with multihospital systems. Using a resource-dependence framework, the study tests whether market conditions, regulatory climate, management effectiveness, and certain enabling factors affect the probability of hospital entry into a contract management arrangement. The study used a pooled sample of 312 contract-managed and 936 traditionally managed hospitals. Results suggest the importance of management effectiveness, regulatory climate, and hospital ownership (investor owned or nonprofit) as predisposing conditions of contract management. PMID:2732059

A natural language based search engine for ICD10 diagnosis encoding.

PubMed

Baud, Robert

2004-01-01

We have developed a multiple step process for implementing an ICD10 search engine. The complexity of the task has been shown and we recommend collecting adequate expertise before starting any implementation. Underestimation of the expert time and inadequate data resources are probable reasons for failure. We also claim that when all conditions are met in term of resource and availability of the expertise, the benefits of a responsive ICD10 search engine will be present and the investment will be successful.

Systematic variations in multi-spectral lidar representations of canopy height profiles and gap probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chasmer, L.; Hopkinson, C.; Gynan, C.; Mahoney, C.; Sitar, M.

2015-12-01

Airborne and terrestrial lidar are increasingly used in forest attribute modeling for carbon, ecosystem and resource monitoring. The near infra-red wavelength at 1064nm has been utilised most in airborne applications due to, for example, diode manufacture costs, surface reflectance and eye safety. Foliage reflects well at 1064nm and most of the literature on airborne lidar forest structure is based on data from this wavelength. However, lidar systems also operate at wavelengths further from the visible spectrum (e.g. 1550nm) for eye safety reasons. This corresponds to a water absorption band and can be sensitive to attenuation if surfaces contain moisture. Alternatively, some systems operate in the visible range (e.g. 532nm) for specialised applications requiring simultaneous mapping of terrestrial and bathymetric surfaces. All these wavelengths provide analogous 3D canopy structure reconstructions and thus offer the potential to be combined for spatial comparisons or temporal monitoring. However, a systematic comparison of wavelength-dependent foliage profile and gap probability (index of transmittance) is needed. Here we report on two multispectral lidar missions carried out in 2013 and 2015 over conifer, deciduous and mixed stands in Ontario, Canada. The first used separate lidar sensors acquiring comparable data at three wavelengths, while the second used a single sensor with 3 integrated laser systems. In both cases, wavelenegths sampled were 532nm, 1064nm and 1550nm. The experiment revealed significant differences in proportions of returns at ground level, the vertical foliage distribution and gap probability across wavelengths. Canopy attenuation was greatest at 532nm due to photosynthetic plant tissue absorption. Relative to 1064nm, foliage was systematically undersampled at the 10% to 60% height percentiles at both 1550nm and 532nm (this was confirmed with coincident terrestrial lidar data). When using all returns to calculate gap probability, all wavelengths were within 6% but when using first returns only, gap probability was overestimated by 67% at 532nm and 11% by 1550nm. These results demonstrate that each wavelength contains distinct information about canopy attributes and models must account for variations in wavelength if applied to data for monitoring purposes.

Regulation of Initial Attachment of P. aeruginosa

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-08

potential phenazine -modifying enzyme v - v - PA1900 phzB2 probable phenazine biosynthesis protein v - v - PA1546 hemN oxygen-independent...coproporphyrinogen III oxidase v - - - PA3329 - hypothetical protein v - v - PA4215 phzF1 probable phenazine biosynthesis protein PA1904 phzF2...probable phenazine biosynthesis protein v - - - PA4498 - probable metallopeptidase v - - - PA1914 - conserved hypothetical protein halovibrin v - v

Hot dry rock geothermal energy: status of exploration and assessment. Report No. 1 of the hot dry rock assessment panel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1977-06-01

The status of knowledge of attempts to utilize hot dry rock (HDR) geothermal energy is summarized. It contains (1) descriptions or case histories of the ERDA-funded projects at Marysville, MT, Fenton Hill, NM, and Coso Hot Springs, CA; (2) a review of the status of existing techniques available for exploration and delineation of HDR; (3) descriptions of other potential HDR sites; (4) definitions of the probable types of HDR resource localities; and (5) an estimate of the magnitude of the HDR resource base in the conterminous United States. The scope is limited to that part of HDR resource assessment relatedmore » to the determination of the extent and character of HDR, with emphasis on the igneous-related type. It is estimated that approximately 74 Q (1 Q = 1,000 Quads) of heat is stored in these sites within the conterminous U.S. at depths less than 10 km and temperatures above 150/sup 0/C, the minimum for power generation. (Q = 10/sup 18/ BTU = 10/sup 21/J; the total U.S. consumption for 1972 was approximately 0.07 Q). Approximately 6300 Q are stored in the conduction-dominated parts of the crust in the western U.S. (23% of the total surface area), again at depths less than 10 km and temperatures above 150/sup 0/C. Nearly 10,000 Q are believed to be contained in crustal rocks underlying the entire conterminous U.S., at temperatures above 150/sup 0/C. The resource base is significantly larger for lower grade heat. (JGB)« less

Tutors' opinions of suitability of online learning programmes in continuing professional development for midwives.

PubMed

Gould, Dinah; Papadopoulos, Irena; Kelly, Daniel

2014-04-01

Online learning is frequently used in continuing professional development for qualified nurses and midwives. It is frequently assumed that the same package is appropriate for different groups of learners and that by reducing the need for tutorial input, tutorial time is saved. We evaluated the suitability of an online learning resource for suitability in continuing professional development for midwives. Originally developed for use as part of a work-based package for a specific audience, there had always been plans for more general use of the resource with other groups of health workers. Sequential mixed methods study. English universities. Seventy university tutors. Online questionnaire and in-depth interviews. Tutors did not consider that the online learning materials would be suitable for a wider audience without significant adaptation. They thought that uptake would increase need for tutorial input. Our findings demonstrate the pitfalls of removing learning from the context of practice. Technology customised to meet the needs of one group of learners probably does not have the potential for transfer to another group without significant adaptation. Those responsible for designing e-learning should take into account the needs of all the different audiences for whom the resource is intended from the outset, with consideration for the context in which learning will be applied to practice and how students will be supported. If the same package is to be used by different audiences and in different settings, tutors and students will require explicit instructions of how they should use the resource and depth of knowledge and level of competency that should be attained at the conclusion of the programme. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An investigation of student understanding of classical ideas related to quantum mechanics: Potential energy diagrams and spatial probability density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephanik, Brian Michael

This dissertation describes the results of two related investigations into introductory student understanding of ideas from classical physics that are key elements of quantum mechanics. One investigation probes the extent to which students are able to interpret and apply potential energy diagrams (i.e., graphs of potential energy versus position). The other probes the extent to which students are able to reason classically about probability and spatial probability density. The results of these investigations revealed significant conceptual and reasoning difficulties that students encounter with these topics. The findings guided the design of instructional materials to address the major problems. Results from post-instructional assessments are presented that illustrate the impact of the curricula on student learning.

Simulation Of Wave Function And Probability Density Of Modified Poschl Teller Potential Derived Using Supersymmetric Quantum Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angraini, Lily Maysari; Suparmi, Variani, Viska Inda

2010-12-01

SUSY quantum mechanics can be applied to solve Schrodinger equation for high dimensional system that can be reduced into one dimensional system and represented in lowering and raising operators. Lowering and raising operators can be obtained using relationship between original Hamiltonian equation and the (super) potential equation. In this paper SUSY quantum mechanics is used as a method to obtain the wave function and the energy level of the Modified Poschl Teller potential. The graph of wave function equation and probability density is simulated by using Delphi 7.0 programming language. Finally, the expectation value of quantum mechanics operator could be calculated analytically using integral form or probability density graph resulted by the programming.

Analytical approach to an integrate-and-fire model with spike-triggered adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwalger, Tilo; Lindner, Benjamin

2015-12-01

The calculation of the steady-state probability density for multidimensional stochastic systems that do not obey detailed balance is a difficult problem. Here we present the analytical derivation of the stationary joint and various marginal probability densities for a stochastic neuron model with adaptation current. Our approach assumes weak noise but is valid for arbitrary adaptation strength and time scale. The theory predicts several effects of adaptation on the statistics of the membrane potential of a tonically firing neuron: (i) a membrane potential distribution with a convex shape, (ii) a strongly increased probability of hyperpolarized membrane potentials induced by strong and fast adaptation, and (iii) a maximized variability associated with the adaptation current at a finite adaptation time scale.

Integration of Geophysical Methods By A Generalised Probability Tomography Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauriello, P.; Patella, D.

In modern science, the propensity interpretative approach stands on the assumption that any physical system consists of two kinds of reality: actual and potential. Also geophysical data systems have potentialities that extend far beyond the few actual models normally attributed to them. Indeed, any geophysical data set is in itself quite inherently ambiguous. Classical deterministic inversion, including tomography, usu- ally forces a measured data set to collapse into a few rather subjective models based on some available a priori information. Classical interpretation is thus an intrinsically limited approach requiring a very deep logical extension. We think that a way to high- light a system full potentiality is to introduce probability as the leading paradigm in dealing with field data systems. Probability tomography has been recently introduced as a completely new approach to data interpretation. Probability tomography has been originally formulated for the self-potential method. It has been then extended to geo- electric, natural source electromagnetic induction, gravity and magnetic methods. Fol- lowing the same rationale, in this paper we generalize the probability tomography the- ory to a generic geophysical anomaly vector field, including the treatment for scalar fields as a particular case. This generalization makes then possible to address for the first time the problem of the integration of different methods by a conjoint probabil- ity tomography imaging procedure. The aim is to infer the existence of an unknown buried object through the analysis of an ad hoc occurrence probability function, blend- ing the physical messages brought forth by a set of singularly observed anomalies.

Mineral resources potential map of the Lost Cove and Harper Creek Roadless Areas, Avery and Caldwell counties, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crandall, T.M.; Ross, R.B.; Whitlow, J.W.; Griffitts, W.R.

1982-01-01

Mineral resources having low to moderate potential are gold and minerals of thorium, beryllium, niobium, and copper. Stone has a low economic potential; lead, molybdenum, and titanium have low resource potential. These conclusions are based on results of prospect examination, radiometric survey, geochemical survey of stream sediments, saprolite, and bedrock.

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

PubMed

Tulloch, Ayesha I T; Maloney, Richard F; Joseph, Liana N; Bennett, Joseph R; Di Fonzo, Martina M I; Probert, William J M; O'Connor, Shaun M; Densem, Jodie P; Possingham, Hugh P

2015-04-01

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk--their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers' risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

A hybrid machine learning model to predict and visualize nitrate concentration throughout the Central Valley aquifer, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransom, Katherine M.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Traum, Jonathan A.; Faunt, Claudia; Bell, Andrew M.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Wheeler, David C.; Zamora, Celia; Jurgens, Bryant; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Belitz, Kenneth; Eberts, Sandra; Kourakos, George; Harter, Thomas

2017-01-01

Intense demand for water in the Central Valley of California and related increases in groundwater nitrate concentration threaten the sustainability of the groundwater resource. To assess contamination risk in the region, we developed a hybrid, non-linear, machine learning model within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface. A database of 145 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and landscape-scale nitrogen mass balances, historical and current land use, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The boosted regression tree (BRT) method was used to screen and rank variables to predict nitrate concentration at the depths of domestic and public well supplies. The novel approach included as predictor variables outputs from existing physically based models of the Central Valley. The top five most important predictor variables included two oxidation/reduction variables (probability of manganese concentration to exceed 50 ppb and probability of dissolved oxygen concentration to be below 0.5 ppm), field-scale adjusted unsaturated zone nitrogen input for the 1975 time period, average difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the years 1971–2000, and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input. Twenty-five variables were selected for the final model for log-transformed nitrate. In general, increasing probability of anoxic conditions and increasing precipitation relative to potential evapotranspiration had a corresponding decrease in nitrate concentration predictions. Conversely, increasing 1975 unsaturated zone nitrogen leaching flux and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input had an increasing relative impact on nitrate predictions. Three-dimensional visualization indicates that nitrate predictions depend on the probability of anoxic conditions and other factors, and that nitrate predictions generally decreased with increasing groundwater age.

Spatial Characteristics of Geothermal Spring Temperatures and Discharge Rates in the Tatun Volcanic Area, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, C. S.; Liu, C. W.

2014-12-01

The Tatun volcanic area is the only potential volcanic geothermal region in the Taiwan island, and abundant in hot spring resources owing to stream water mixing with fumarolic gases. According to the Meinzer's classification, spring temperatures and discharge rates are the most important properties for characterizing spring classifications. This study attempted to spatially characterize spring temperatures and discharge rates in the Tatun volcanic area, Taiwanusing indicator kriging (IK). First, data on spring temperatures and discharge rates, which were collected from surveyed data of the Taipei City Government, were divided into high, moderate and low categories according to spring classification criteria, and the various categories were regarded as estimation thresholds. Then, IK was adopted to model occurrence probabilities of specified temperatures and discharge rates in springs, and to determine their classifications based on estimated probabilities. Finally, nine combinations were obtained from the classifications of temperatures and discharge rates in springs. Moreover, the combinations and features of spring water were spatially quantified according to seven sub-zones of spring utilization. A suitable and sustainable development strategy of the spring area was proposed in each sub-zone based on probability-based combinations and features of spring water.The research results reveal that the probability-based classifications using IK provide an excellent insight in exploring the uncertainty of spatial features in springs, and can provide Taiwanese government administrators with detailed information on sustainable spring utilization and conservation in the overexploited spring tourism areas. The sub-zones BT (Beitou), RXY (Rd. Xingyi), ZSL (Zhongshanlou) and LSK (Lengshuikeng) with high or moderate discharge rates are suitable to supply spring water for tourism hotels.Local natural hot springs should be planned in the sub-zones DBT (Dingbeitou), ZSL, XYK (Xiayoukeng), and MC (Macao) with low discharge rates, and low or moderate temperatures, particularly in riverbeds or valleys.Keywords: Spring; Temperature; Discharge rate; Indicator kriging; Uncertainty

Mineral Resources of the Morey and Fandango Wilderness Study Areas, Nye County, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

John, David A.; Nash, J. Thomas; Plouff, Donald; McDonnell, John R.

1987-01-01

The Morey (NV-060-191) and Fandango (NV-060-190) Wilderness Study Areas are located in the northern Hot Creek Range about 25 mi north of Warm Springs, Nev. At the request of the Bureau of Land Management, 46,300 acres of the Morey and Fandango Wilderness Study Areas were studied. In this report, the area studied is referred to as 'the wilderness study area', or simply 'the study area'. Geologic, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral surveys were conducted by the USGS and the USBM in 1984 to appraise the identified mineral resources and to assess the mineral resource potential of the study areas. These studies indicate that there are small identified resources of zinc, lead, and silver at the Lead Pipe property in the Fandango Wilderness Study Area, several areas of high potential for the occurrence of gold resources in the Fandango study area, small areas of low and moderate potential for the occurrence of silver, lead, and zinc resources in the Fandango study area, areas of moderate and high potential for the occurrence of silver, lead, and zinc resources in the Morey study area, and an area of low potential for copper, molybdenum, and tin in the Morey study area. Both study areas have low resource potential for petroleum, natural gas, uranium, and geothermal energy.

Misconceptions in Rational Numbers, Probability, Algebra, and Geometry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rakes, Christopher R.

2010-01-01

In this study, the author examined the relationship of probability misconceptions to algebra, geometry, and rational number misconceptions and investigated the potential of probability instruction as an intervention to address misconceptions in all 4 content areas. Through a review of literature, 5 fundamental concepts were identified that, if…

Cretaceous sedimentation and tectonism in the southeastern Kaiparowits region, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Fred

1969-01-01

Upper Cretaceous strata in the southeastern Kaiparowits region of south-central Utah consist of approximately 3,500 feet of interfingering sandstone, mudstone, shale, and coal in the Dakota Formation (oldest), Tropic Shale, Straight Cliffs Formation, and Wahweap Formation (youngest). The formations consist of several depositional facies that can be recognized by characteristic lithologies bedding structures, and fossils; these are the alluvial plain, deltaic plain, lagoonal-paludal, barrier sandstone, and offshore marine facies. The distribution of facies clearly defines the paleogeography of the region during several cycles of marine transgression and regression. The nonmarine beds were deposited on a broad alluvial coastal plain that was bordered on the west and southwest by highlands and on the east and northeast by the Western Interior seaway. The marine beds were deposited whenever the seaway advanced into or across the region. The Dakota Formation and the lower part of the Tropic Shale were deposited in nonmarine and marine environments, while the shoreline advanced generally westward across the region. The middle and upper part of the Tropic Shale and the Tibbet Canyon and Smoky Hollow Members of the Straight Cliffs Formation were deposited in marine and nonmarine environments when the seaway had reached its greatest areal extent and began a gradual northeastward withdrawal. An unconformity at the top of the Smoky Hollow represents a period of erosion and possibly nondeposition before deposition of the John Henry Member of the Straight Cliffs. The John Henry Member grades from nonmarine in the southwest to predominantly marine in the northeast, and was deposited during two relatively minor cycles of transgression and regression. The Drip Tank Member at the top of the Straight Cliffs Formation is a widespread sandstone unit deposited mainly in fluvial environments. Some of the beds in the northeastern part of the region were probably deposited in marine waters during the final incursion of the seaway into the Kaiparowits region. The overlying Wahweap Formation was deposited in nonmarine environments. Slight but continued tectonism during Late Cretaceous time is indicated by lateral changes of facies and thickness variations that coincide at least partly with present structures. These criteria indicate that Laramide tectonism consisted of two phases. An early phase that lasted from about late Albian to late Campanian time included regional subsidence, basin downwarping, and movement on local folds and faults. A later phase that lasted from late Campanian to about late Paleocene time included regional uplift, monoclinal flexing, and probable new faulting, as well as continued basin downwarping and movement on local folds and probably on the older faults. The principal economic resource in the Kaiparowits region is bituminous or subbituminous coal in the john Henry Member. Because basin downwarping and movement on local folds occurred during deposition, the thicker and more continuous coal beds are in the ancestral synclines and tile deeper part of the structural basin. Presently indicated resources total 7.3 billion tons, but considerably larger quantities are probably present in the unexplored parts of the region. Several potential resources include ground water, titaniferous sandstone, and possibly oil and gas.

Pairwise contact energy statistical potentials can help to find probability of point mutations.

PubMed

Saravanan, K M; Suvaithenamudhan, S; Parthasarathy, S; Selvaraj, S

2017-01-01

To adopt a particular fold, a protein requires several interactions between its amino acid residues. The energetic contribution of these residue-residue interactions can be approximated by extracting statistical potentials from known high resolution structures. Several methods based on statistical potentials extracted from unrelated proteins are found to make a better prediction of probability of point mutations. We postulate that the statistical potentials extracted from known structures of similar folds with varying sequence identity can be a powerful tool to examine probability of point mutation. By keeping this in mind, we have derived pairwise residue and atomic contact energy potentials for the different functional families that adopt the (α/β) 8 TIM-Barrel fold. We carried out computational point mutations at various conserved residue positions in yeast Triose phosphate isomerase enzyme for which experimental results are already reported. We have also performed molecular dynamics simulations on a subset of point mutants to make a comparative study. The difference in pairwise residue and atomic contact energy of wildtype and various point mutations reveals probability of mutations at a particular position. Interestingly, we found that our computational prediction agrees with the experimental studies of Silverman et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci 2001;98:3092-3097) and perform better prediction than i Mutant and Cologne University Protein Stability Analysis Tool. The present work thus suggests deriving pairwise contact energy potentials and molecular dynamics simulations of functionally important folds could help us to predict probability of point mutations which may ultimately reduce the time and cost of mutation experiments. Proteins 2016; 85:54-64. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Resource efficiency potential of selected technologies, products and strategies.

PubMed

Rohn, Holger; Pastewski, Nico; Lettenmeier, Michael; Wiesen, Klaus; Bienge, Katrin

2014-03-01

Despite rising prices for natural resources during the past 30 years, global consumption of natural resources is still growing. This leads to ecological, economical and social problems. So far, however, limited effort has been made to decrease the natural resource use of goods and services. While resource efficiency is already on the political agenda (EU and national resource strategies), there are still substantial knowledge gaps on the effectiveness of resource efficiency improvement strategies in different fields. In this context and within the project "Material Efficiency and Resource Conservation", the natural resource use of 22 technologies, products and strategies was calculated and their resource efficiency potential analysed. In a preliminary literature- and expert-based identification process, over 250 technologies, strategies, and products, which are regarded as resource efficient, were identified. Out of these, 22 subjects with high resource efficiency potential were selected. They cover a wide range of relevant technologies, products and strategies, such as energy supply and storage, Green IT, transportation, foodstuffs, agricultural engineering, design strategies, lightweight construction, as well as the concept "Using Instead of Owning". To assess the life-cycle-wide resource use of the selected subjects, the material footprint has been applied as a reliable indicator. In addition, sustainability criteria on a qualitative basis were considered. The results presented in this paper show significant resource efficiency potential for many technologies, products and strategies. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

78 FR 61939 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Snapper-Grouper Resources of the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-07

... statistics, NMFS has determined that 75 percent of the available commercial quota for the July 1 through... implemented, and increase the probability that the commercial ACL (commercial quota) will be exceeded. For the...