Depression in Mongolian women over the first 2 months after childbirth: prevalence and risk factors.

PubMed

Pollock, J I; Manaseki-Holland, S; Patel, V

2009-07-01

Social, political and economic changes in Mongolia have followed post-Soviet style government policies and contributed to both increased liberalisation and reduced security in employment and family finances. This is the first study to attempt to assess the prevalence of depression in a population of Mongolian women in the post-partum period and assess risk factors, including financial position, associated with the condition. A total of 1044 women who had delivered healthy babies in Ulaanbaatar between October and December 2002 were screened for depression using the WHO Self Reporting Questionnaire between 5 and 9 weeks post-partum. Further details on the mother, her family and social and economic circumstances were simultaneously collected. Analysis of risk factors for probable depression was undertaken using multiple logistic regression techniques. The prevalence of depression was 9.1% (95% CLs 7.5%-11.1%). Variables significantly and independently associated with risk of probable maternal depression included economic factors, mother being subject to physical abuse, dissatisfied with the pregnancy, concerned about her baby's behaviour, and her own health problems. The sample was drawn from a population of mothers all of whom had healthy, full-term babies of normal birth weight. Clinical confirmation of diagnosis was not established. Mongolian women with young infants in Ulaanbaatar probably experience depression at rates comparable with other cultures. Factors associated with probable depression were dominated by health, relationships and financial position.

[Analysis of main risk factors causing foodborne diseases in food catering business].

PubMed

Fan, Yong-xiang; Liu, Xiu-mei; Bao, Yi-dan

2011-06-01

To study main risk factors that cause foodborne diseases in food catering business. Data from references and investigations conducted in food catering units were used to establish models which based on @Risk 4.5 with Monte Carlo method referring to food handling practice model (FHPM) to make risk assessment on factors of food contamination in food catering units. The Beta-Poisson models on dose-response relationship to Salmonella (developed by WHO/FAO and United States Department of Agriculture) and Vibrio parahaemolyticus (developed by US FDA) were used in this article to analyze the dose-response relationship of pathogens. The average probability of food poisoning by consuming Salmonella contaminated cooked meat under refrigeration was 1.96 × 10(-4) which was 1/2800 of the food under non-refrigeration (the average probability of food poisoning was 0.35 at room temperature 25°C). The average probability by consuming 6 hours stored meat under room temperature was 0.11 which was 16 times of 2 hours storage (6.79 × 10(-3)). The average probability by consuming contaminated meat without fully cooking was 1.71 × 10(-4) which was 100 times of consuming fully cooked meat (1.88 × 10(-6)). The probability growth of food poisoning by consuming Vibrio parahaemolyticus contaminated fresh seafood was proportional with contamination level and prevalence. The primary contamination level, storage temperature and time, cooking process and cross contamination are important factors of catering food safety.

Indicators for surgery in adhesive bowel obstruction.

PubMed

Rajanikmanth, P V; Kate, V; Ananthakrishnan, N

2001-01-01

There is lack of data on risk factors, which, if present, would indicate the need for surgery in patients with adhesive bowel obstruction. A Cohort of 100 consecutive patients with adhesive obstruction was studied prospectively to compare clinical and investigative parameters between the operative and conservative group. It was found that female gender, previous obstetric or gynaecological procedures, pulse and BP on admission, nature of nasogastric aspirate, single distended loop on abdominal x-ray as also predominant ileal distension were independent factors indicating a high probability of surgical intervention. Patients with 2 or more risk factors had 12 times higher probability of surgery and in those with 3 or more the relative risk was 30 times. Patients with such risk factors should be monitored closely after admission and should be taken for surgery after an initial short trial of conservative measures.

Cost-effectiveness of In-home Automated External Defibrillators for Individuals at Increased Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death

PubMed Central

Cram, Peter; Vijan, Sandeep; Katz, David; Fendrick, A Mark

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE In-home automated external defibrillators (AEDs) are increasingly recommended as a means for improving survival of cardiac arrests that occur at home. The current study was conducted to explore the relationship between individuals' risk of cardiac arrest and cost-effectiveness of in-home AED deployment. DESIGN Markov decision model employing a societal perspective. PATIENTS Four hypothetical cohorts of American adults 60 years of age at progressively greater risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD): 1) all adults (annual probability of SCD 0.4%); 2) adults with multiple SCD risk factors (probability 2%); 3) adults with previous myocardial infarction (probability 4%); and 4) adults with ischemic cardiomyopathy unable to receive an implantable defibrillator (probability 6%). INTERVENTION Strategy 1: individuals suffering an in-home cardiac arrest were treated with emergency medical services equipped with AEDs (EMS-D). Strategy 2: individuals suffering an in-home cardiac arrest received initial treatment with an in-home AED, followed by EMS. RESULTS Assuming cardiac arrest survival rates of 15% with EMS-D and 30% with AEDs, the cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained (QALY) of providing in-home AEDs to all adults 60 years of age is $216,000. Costs of providing in-home AEDs to adults with multiple risk factors (2% probability of SCD), previous myocardial infarction (4% probability), and ischemic cardiomyopathy (6% probability) are $132,000, $104,000, and $88,000, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The cost-effectiveness of in-home AEDs is intimately linked to individuals' risk of SCD. However, providing in-home AEDs to all adults over age 60 appears relatively expensive. PMID:15836529

Combined early and adult life risk factor associations for mid-life obesity in a prospective birth cohort: assessing potential public health impact.

PubMed

Pinto Pereira, Snehal M; van Veldhoven, Karin; Li, Leah; Power, Chris

2016-04-12

The combined effect of life-course influences on obesity development and thus their potential public health impact is unclear. We evaluated combined associations and predicted probabilities for early and adult life risk factors with central and general obesity in mid-adulthood. 1958 British birth cohort. 4629 males and 4670 females with data on waist circumference. 45 year obesity measured via waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR) and BMI. At 45 years, approximately a third of the population were centrally obese and a quarter were generally obese. Three factors (parental overweight, maternal smoking during pregnancy and adult inactivity) were consistently associated with central and general obesity. Predicted probabilities for waist obesity increased from those with none to all three risk factors (0.15-0.33 in men; 0.19-0.39 in women (ptrend<0.001)), with a similar trend for general obesity. Additional factors (adult smoking, low fibre and heavy alcohol consumption) were associated with WHR obesity, although varying by gender. Prevalence of risk factors was higher in manual than non-manual groups: for example, in men 38% versus 25%, respectively, had ≥2 risk factors for waist and general obesity. Early-life and adult factors that are amenable to change are highly prevalent and accumulate in association with central and general obesity in mid-adulthood. The increase in probabilities for mid-adult obesity associated with cumulative levels of risk factors suggests the potential for public health impact. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Predicting risk for childhood asthma by pre-pregnancy, perinatal, and postnatal factors.

PubMed

Wen, Hui-Ju; Chiang, Tung-Liang; Lin, Shio-Jean; Guo, Yue Leon

2015-05-01

Symptoms of atopic disease start early in human life. Predicting risk for childhood asthma by early-life exposure would contribute to disease prevention. A birth cohort study was conducted to investigate early-life risk factors for childhood asthma and to develop a predictive model for the development of asthma. National representative samples of newborn babies were obtained by multistage stratified systematic sampling from the 2005 Taiwan Birth Registry. Information on potential risk factors and children's health was collected by home interview when babies were 6 months old and 5 yr old, respectively. Backward stepwise regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors of childhood asthma for predictive models that were used to calculate the probability of childhood asthma. A total of 19,192 children completed the study satisfactorily. Physician-diagnosed asthma was reported in 6.6% of 5-yr-old children. Pre-pregnancy factors (parental atopy and socioeconomic status), perinatal factors (place of residence, exposure to indoor mold and painting/renovations during pregnancy), and postnatal factors (maternal postpartum depression and the presence of atopic dermatitis before 6 months of age) were chosen for the predictive models, and the highest predicted probability of asthma in 5-yr-old children was 68.1% in boys and 78.1% in girls; the lowest probability in boys and girls was 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively. This investigation provides a technique for predicting risk of childhood asthma that can be used to developing a preventive strategy against asthma. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prevalence of urinary incontinence and probable risk factors in a sample of kurdish women.

PubMed

Ahmed, Hamdia M; Osman, Vian A; Al-Alaf, Shahla K; Al-Tawil, Namir G

2013-05-01

The most common manifestation of pelvic floor dysfunction is urinary incontinence (UI) which affects 15-50% of adult women depending on the age and risk factors of the population studied. The aim of this study was to determine the probable risk factors associated with UI; the characteristics of women with UI; describe the types of UI, and determine its prevalence. A cross-sectional study was conducted between February and August 2011, in the Maternity Teaching Hospital of the Erbil Governorate, Kurdistan Region, northern Iraq. It included 1,107 women who were accompanying patients admitted to the hospital. A questionnaire designed by the researchers was used for data collection. A chi-square test was used to test the significance of the association between UI and different risk factors. Binary logistic regression was used, considering UI as the dependent variable. The overall prevalence of UI was 51.7%. The prevalence of stress, urgency, and mixed UI was 5.4%, 13.3% and 33%, respectively. There was a significant positive association between UI and menopause, multiparity, diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic cough, constipation, and a history of gynaecological surgery, while a significant negative association was detected between UI and a history of delivery by both vaginal delivery and Caesarean section. A high prevalence of UI was detected in the studied sample, and the most probable risk factors were multiparity, menopausal status, constipation, chronic cough, and DM.

Risk profiles associated with postnatal depressive symptoms among women in a public sector hospital in Mexico: the role of sociodemographic and psychosocial factors.

PubMed

de Castro, Filipa; Place, Jean Marie S; Billings, Deborah L; Rivera, Leonor; Frongillo, Edward A

2015-06-01

This study examined the association between postnatal depressive symptoms and a set of demographic and psychosocial factors among 604 women attending a public hospital for postnatal care in Mexico City. Specific profiles of women that would indicate an increased probability for developing postnatal depression (PND) based on discrete combinations of risk and protective factors were generated. In a logistic model, followed by the estimation of predicted probabilities, we examined the association between depressive symptomatology and psychosocial factors: low social support, unplanned pregnancies, history of depression, and exposure to moderate or severe intimate partner violence (IPV) during pregnancy. Postnatal depressive symptomatology was reported by 10.6 % of the women, as measured by scores at 12 or above on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. The cumulative probability of presenting PND in the simultaneous presence of the psychosocial factors was 67.0 %; however, this could be reduced to 5.5 % through preventive measures that work to eliminate low social support, unplanned pregnancy, and exposure to severe IPV during pregnancy. Early identification of psychosocial risk factors, specifically low social support, unplanned pregnancies, history of depression, and exposure to violence during pregnancy, is recommended.

Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

2004-05-20

This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.

Direct Assistance: USAID Has Taken Positive Action to Assess Afghan Ministries’ Ability to Manage Donor Funds, but Concerns Remain

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

with the adverse event’s potential impact , ranging from negligible to catastrophic. Appendix V includes a matrix of how USAID/Afghanistan assigns risk...International Development (USAID) assigns risk ratings based on potential impact and probability of occurrence of an identified risk. The impact measures...frequent. Combining impact and probability factors categorize risk clusters of critical, high, medium and low categories. Although subjective, it is

[FROM STATISTICAL ASSOCIATIONS TO SCIENTIFIC CAUSALITY].

PubMed

Golan, Daniel; Linn, Shay

2015-06-01

The pathogenesis of most chronic diseases is complex and probably involves the interaction of multiple genetic and environmental risk factors. One way to learn about disease triggers is from statistically significant associations in epidemiological studies. However, associations do not necessarily prove causation. Associations can commonly result from bias, confounding and reverse causation. Several paradigms for causality inference have been developed. Henle-Koch postulates are mainly applied for infectious diseases. Austin Bradford Hill's criteria may serve as a practical tool to weigh the evidence regarding the probability that a single new risk factor for a given disease is indeed causal. These criteria are irrelevant for estimating the causal relationship between exposure to a risk factor and disease whenever biological causality has been previously established. Thus, it is highly probable that past exposure of an individual to definite carcinogens is related to his cancer, even without proving an association between this exposure and cancer in his group. For multifactorial diseases, Rothman's model of interacting sets of component causes can be applied.

The Effects of Framing, Reflection, Probability, and Payoff on Risk Preference in Choice Tasks.

PubMed

Kühberger; Schulte-Mecklenbeck; Perner

1999-06-01

A meta-analysis of Asian-disease-like studies is presented to identify the factors which determine risk preference. First the confoundings between probability levels, payoffs, and framing conditions are clarified in a task analysis. Then the role of framing, reflection, probability, type, and size of payoff is evaluated in a meta-analysis. It is shown that bidirectional framing effects exist for gains and for losses. Presenting outcomes as gains tends to induce risk aversion, while presenting outcomes as losses tends to induce risk seeking. Risk preference is also shown to depend on the size of the payoffs, on the probability levels, and on the type of good at stake (money/property vs human lives). In general, higher payoffs lead to increasing risk aversion. Higher probabilities lead to increasing risk aversion for gains and to increasing risk seeking for losses. These findings are confirmed by a subsequent empirical test. Shortcomings of existing formal theories, such as prospect theory, cumulative prospect theory, venture theory, and Markowitz's utility theory, are identified. It is shown that it is not probabilities or payoffs, but the framing condition, which explains most variance. These findings are interpreted as showing that no linear combination of formally relevant predictors is sufficient to capture the essence of the framing phenomenon. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Evaluating the vulnerability of Maine forests to wind damage

Treesearch

Thomas E. Perry; Jeremy S. Wilson

2010-01-01

Numerous factors, some of which cannot be controlled, are continually interacting with the forest resource, introducing risk to management, and making consistent predictable management outcomes uncertain. Included in these factors are threats or hazards such as windstorms and wildfire. Factors influencing the probability (risk) of windthrow or windsnap occurring can be...

Disordered Eating Behaviors Among Transgender Youth: Probability Profiles from Risk and Protective Factors

PubMed Central

Watson, Ryan J.; Veale, Jaimie F.; Saewyc, Elizabeth M.

2017-01-01

Purpose Research has documented high rates of disordered eating for lesbian, gay, and bisexual youth, but prevalence and patterns of disordered eating among transgender youth remain unexplored. This is despite unique challenges faced by this group, including gender-related body image and the use of hormones. We explore the relationship between disordered eating and risk and protective factors for transgender youth. Methods An online survey of 923 transgender youth (aged 14–25) across Canada was conducted, primarily using measures from existing youth health surveys. Analyses were stratified by gender identity and included logistic regressions with probability profiles to illustrate combinations of risk and protective factors for eating disordered behaviors. Results Enacted stigma (the higher rates of harassment and discrimination sexual minority youth experience) was linked to higher odds of reported past year binge eating and fasting or vomiting to lose weight, while protective factors, including family connectedness, school connectedness, caring friends, and social support, were linked to lower odds of past year disordered eating. Youth with the highest levels of enacted stigma and no protective factors had high probabilities of past year eating disordered behaviors. Conclusions Our study found high prevalence of disorders. Risk for these behaviors was linked to stigma and violence exposure, but offset by social supports. Health professionals should assess transgender youth for disordered eating behaviors and supportive resources. PMID:27862124

Risk factors for the treatment outcome of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients in China: an optimized prediction model.

PubMed

Wang, X-M; Yin, S-H; Du, J; Du, M-L; Wang, P-Y; Wu, J; Horbinski, C M; Wu, M-J; Zheng, H-Q; Xu, X-Q; Shu, W; Zhang, Y-J

2017-07-01

Retreatment of tuberculosis (TB) often fails in China, yet the risk factors associated with the failure remain unclear. To identify risk factors for the treatment failure of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients, we analyzed the data of 395 retreated PTB patients who received retreatment between July 2009 and July 2011 in China. PTB patients were categorized into 'success' and 'failure' groups by their treatment outcome. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between treatment outcome and socio-demographic as well as clinical factors. We also created an optimized risk score model to evaluate the predictive values of these risk factors on treatment failure. Of 395 patients, 99 (25·1%) were diagnosed as retreatment failure. Our results showed that risk factors associated with treatment failure included drug resistance, low education level, low body mass index (6 months), standard treatment regimen, retreatment type, positive culture result after 2 months of treatment, and the place where the first medicine was taken. An Optimized Framingham risk model was then used to calculate the risk scores of these factors. Place where first medicine was taken (temporary living places) received a score of 6, which was highest among all the factors. The predicted probability of treatment failure increases as risk score increases. Ten out of 359 patients had a risk score >9, which corresponded to an estimated probability of treatment failure >70%. In conclusion, we have identified multiple clinical and socio-demographic factors that are associated with treatment failure of retreated PTB patients. We also created an optimized risk score model that was effective in predicting the retreatment failure. These results provide novel insights for the prognosis and improvement of treatment for retreated PTB patients.

Development of innovative methods for risk assessment in high-rise construction based on clustering of risk factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okolelova, Ella; Shibaeva, Marina; Shalnev, Oleg

2018-03-01

The article analyses risks in high-rise construction in terms of investment value with account of the maximum probable loss in case of risk event. The authors scrutinized the risks of high-rise construction in regions with various geographic, climatic and socio-economic conditions that may influence the project environment. Risk classification is presented in general terms, that includes aggregated characteristics of risks being common for many regions. Cluster analysis tools, that allow considering generalized groups of risk depending on their qualitative and quantitative features, were used in order to model the influence of the risk factors on the implementation of investment project. For convenience of further calculations, each type of risk is assigned a separate code with the number of the cluster and the subtype of risk. This approach and the coding of risk factors makes it possible to build a risk matrix, which greatly facilitates the task of determining the degree of impact of risks. The authors clarified and expanded the concept of the price risk, which is defined as the expected value of the event, 105 which extends the capabilities of the model, allows estimating an interval of the probability of occurrence and also using other probabilistic methods of calculation.

A Guide to the Application of Probability Risk Assessment Methodology and Hazard Risk Frequency Criteria as a Hazard Control for the Use of the Mobile Servicing System on the International Space Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'silva, Oneil; Kerrison, Roger

2013-09-01

A key feature for the increased utilization of space robotics is to automate Extra-Vehicular manned space activities and thus significantly reduce the potential for catastrophic hazards while simultaneously minimizing the overall costs associated with manned space. The principal scope of the paper is to evaluate the use of industry standard accepted Probability risk/safety assessment (PRA/PSA) methodologies and Hazard Risk frequency Criteria as a hazard control. This paper illustrates the applicability of combining the selected Probability risk assessment methodology and hazard risk frequency criteria, in order to apply the necessary safety controls that allow for the increased use of the Mobile Servicing system (MSS) robotic system on the International Space Station. This document will consider factors such as component failure rate reliability, software reliability, and periods of operation and dormancy, fault tree analyses and their effects on the probability risk assessments. The paper concludes with suggestions for the incorporation of existing industry Risk/Safety plans to create an applicable safety process for future activities/programs

Chronic probable PTSD in police responders in the world trade center health registry ten to eleven years after 9/11.

PubMed

Cone, James E; Li, Jiehui; Kornblith, Erica; Gocheva, Vihra; Stellman, Steven D; Shaikh, Annum; Schwarzer, Ralf; Bowler, Rosemarie M

2015-05-01

Police enrolled in the World Trade Center Health Registry (WTCHR) demonstrated increased probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after the terrorist attack of 9/11/2001. Police enrollees without pre-9/11 PTSD were studied. Probable PTSD was assessed by Posttraumatic Stress Check List (PCL). Risk factors for chronic, new onset or resolved PTSD were assessed using multinomial logistic regression. Half of police with probable PTSD in 2003-2007 continued to have probable PTSD in 2011-2012. Women had higher prevalence of PTSD than men (15.5% vs. 10.3%, P = 0.008). Risk factors for chronic PTSD included decreased social support, unemployment, 2+ life stressors in last 12 months, 2+ life-threatening events since 9/11, 2+ injuries during the 9/11 attacks, and unmet mental health needs. Police responders to the WTC attacks continue to bear a high mental health burden. Improved early access to mental health treatment for police exposed to disasters may be needed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Role of prediabetes in stroke

PubMed Central

Mijajlović, Milija D; Aleksić, Vuk M; Šternić, Nadežda M; Mirković, Mihailo M; Bornstein, Natan M

2017-01-01

Stroke is one of the leading causes of death and probably the greatest cause of adult disability worldwide. Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a state of accelerated aging of blood vessels. Patients with diabetes have increased risk of stroke. Hyperglycemia represents a risk factor for poor outcome following stroke, and probably is just a marker of poor outcome rather than a cause. Lowering of blood glucose levels has not been shown to improve prognosis. Also, prevention of stroke risk among patients with DM is not improved with therapy for reduction of glucose levels. On the other hand, prediabetes, a metabolic state between normal glucose metabolism and diabetes, is a risk factor for the development of DM type 2 and subsequently for stroke. Several methods are known to identify prediabetes patients, including fasting plasma glucose levels, 2-hour post load glucose levels, and glycosylated hemoglobin levels. In this text, we tried to summarize known data about diagnosis, epidemiology, risk factors, pathophysiology, and prevention of prediabetes in relation to DM and stroke. PMID:28203079

Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

2016-09-01

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

Syndemic Risk Classes and Substance Use Problems among Adults in High-Risk Urban Areas: A Latent Class Analysis.

PubMed

Cleland, Charles M; Lanza, Stephanie T; Vasilenko, Sara A; Gwadz, Marya

2017-01-01

Substance use problems tend to co-occur with risk factors that are especially prevalent in urban communities with high rates of poverty. The present study draws on Syndemics Theory to understand profiles of risk and resilience and their associations with substance use problems in a population at risk for adverse outcomes. African-American/Black and Hispanic heterosexual adults ( N  = 2,853) were recruited by respondent-driven sampling from an urban area with elevated poverty rates, and completed a structured assessment battery covering sociodemographics, syndemic factors (that is, multiple, co-occurring risk factors), and substance use. More than one-third of participants (36%) met criteria for either an alcohol or a drug problem in the past year. Latent class analysis identified profiles of risk and resilience, separately for women and men, which were associated with the probability of a substance use problem. Almost a third of women (27%) and 38% of men had lower risk profiles-patterns of resilience not apparent in other types of analyses. Profiles with more risk and fewer resilience factors were associated with an increased probability of substance use problems, but profiles with fewer risk and more resilience factors had rates of substance use problems that were very similar to the general adult population. Relative to the lowest risk profile, profiles with the most risk and fewest resilience factors were associated with increased odds of a substance use problem for both women [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 8.50; 95% CI: 3.85-18.74] and men (aOR = 11.68; 95% CI: 6.91-19.74). Addressing syndemic factors in substance use treatment and prevention may yield improved outcomes.

Late-life factors associated with healthy aging in older men.

PubMed

Bell, Christina L; Chen, Randi; Masaki, Kamal; Yee, Priscilla; He, Qimei; Grove, John; Donlon, Timothy; Curb, J David; Willcox, D Craig; Poon, Leonard W; Willcox, Bradley J

2014-05-01

To identify potentially modifiable late-life biological, lifestyle, and sociodemographic factors associated with overall and healthy survival to age 85. Prospective longitudinal cohort study with 21 years of follow-up (1991-2012). Hawaii Lifespan Study. American men of Japanese ancestry (mean age 75.7, range 71-82) without baseline major clinical morbidity and functional impairments (N = 1,292). Overall survival and healthy survival (free from six major chronic diseases and without physical or cognitive impairment) to age 85. Factors were measured at late-life baseline examinations (1991-1993). Of 1,292 participants, 1,000 (77%) survived to 85 (34% healthy) and 309 (24%) to 95 (<1% healthy). Late-life factors associated with survival and healthy survival included biological (body mass index, ankle-brachial index, cognitive score, blood pressure, inflammatory markers), lifestyle (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity), and sociodemographic factors (education, marital status). Cumulative late-life baseline risk factor models demonstrated that age-standardized (at 70) probability of survival to 95 ranged from 27% (no factors) to 7% (≥ 5 factors); probability of survival to 100 ranged from 4% (no factors) to 0.1% (≥ 5 factors). Age-standardized (at 70) probability of healthy survival to 90 ranged from 4% (no factors) to 0.01% (≥ 5 factors). There were nine healthy survivors at 95 and one healthy survivor at 100. Several potentially modifiable risk factors in men in late life (mean age 75.7) were associated with markedly greater probability of subsequent healthy survival and longevity. © 2014, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2014, The American Geriatrics Society.

Information Security Risk Assessment in Hospitals.

PubMed

Ayatollahi, Haleh; Shagerdi, Ghazal

2017-01-01

To date, many efforts have been made to classify information security threats, especially in the healthcare area. However, there are still many unknown risks which may threat the security of health information and their resources especially in the hospitals. The aim of this study was to assess the risks threatening information security in the hospitals located in one of the northwest cities of Iran. This study was completed in 2014. The participants were information technology managers who worked in the hospitals (n=27). The research instrument was a questionnaire composed of a number of open and closed questions. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed, and the reliability of the closed questions was measured by using the test-retest method (r =0.78). The results showed that among the information security risks, fire found to be a high probability/high impact risk factor. Human and physical/environmental threats were among the low probability risk factors. Regarding the information security safeguards used in the hospitals, the results showed that the use of the technical safeguards was the most frequent one (n =22, 91.7%) compared to the administrative (n =21, 87.5%) and the physical safeguards (n =16, 66.7%). The high probability risk factors require quick corrective actions to be taken. Therefore, the underlying causes of such threats should be identified and controlled before experiencing adverse effects. It is also important to note that information security in health care systems needs to be considered at a macro level with respect to the national interests and policies.

Prevalence, risk, and correlates of posttraumatic stress disorder across ethnic and racial minority groups in the United States.

PubMed

Alegría, Margarita; Fortuna, Lisa R; Lin, Julia Y; Norris, Fran H; Gao, Shan; Takeuchi, David T; Jackson, James S; Shrout, Patrick E; Valentine, Anne

2013-12-01

We assess whether posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) varies in prevalence, diagnostic criteria endorsement, and type and frequency of potentially traumatic events (PTEs) among a nationally representative US sample of 5071 non-Latino whites, 3264 Latinos, 2178 Asians, 4249 African Americans, and 1476 Afro-Caribbeans. PTSD and other psychiatric disorders were evaluated using the World Mental Health-Composite International Diagnostic Interview (WMH-CIDI) in a national household sample that oversampled ethnic/racial minorities (n=16,238) but was weighted to produce results representative of the general population. Asians have lower prevalence rates of probable lifetime PTSD, whereas African Americans have higher rates as compared with non-Latino whites, even after adjusting for type and number of exposures to traumatic events, and for sociodemographic, clinical, and social support factors. Afro-Caribbeans and Latinos seem to demonstrate similar risk to non-Latino whites, adjusting for these same covariates. Higher rates of probable PTSD exhibited by African Americans and lower rates for Asians, as compared with non-Latino whites, do not appear related to differential symptom endorsement, differences in risk or protective factors, or differences in types and frequencies of PTEs across groups. There appears to be marked differences in conditional risk of probable PTSD across ethnic/racial groups. Questions remain about what explains risk of probable PTSD. Several factors that might account for these differences are discussed, as well as the clinical implications of our findings. Uncertainty of the PTSD diagnostic assessment for Latinos and Asians requires further evaluation.

Transitional probability-based model for HPV clearance in HIV-1-positive adolescent females.

PubMed

Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Sudenga, Staci L; Wilson, Craig M; Levitan, Emily B; Shrestha, Sadeep

2012-01-01

HIV-1-positive patients clear the human papillomavirus (HPV) infection less frequently than HIV-1-negative. Datasets for estimating HPV clearance probability often have irregular measurements of HPV status and risk factors. A new transitional probability-based model for estimation of probability of HPV clearance was developed to fully incorporate information on HIV-1-related clinical data, such as CD4 counts, HIV-1 viral load (VL), highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), and risk factors (measured quarterly), and HPV infection status (measured at 6-month intervals). Data from 266 HIV-1-positive and 134 at-risk HIV-1-negative adolescent females from the Reaching for Excellence in Adolescent Care and Health (REACH) cohort were used in this study. First, the associations were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazard model, and the variables that demonstrated significant effects on HPV clearance were included in transitional probability models. The new model established the efficacy of CD4 cell counts as a main clearance predictor for all type-specific HPV phylogenetic groups. The 3-month probability of HPV clearance in HIV-1-infected patients significantly increased with increasing CD4 counts for HPV16/16-like (p<0.001), HPV18/18-like (p<0.001), HPV56/56-like (p = 0.05), and low-risk HPV (p<0.001) phylogenetic groups, with the lowest probability found for HPV16/16-like infections (21.60±1.81% at CD4 level 200 cells/mm(3), p<0.05; and 28.03±1.47% at CD4 level 500 cells/mm(3)). HIV-1 VL was a significant predictor for clearance of low-risk HPV infections (p<0.05). HAART (with protease inhibitor) was significant predictor of probability of HPV16 clearance (p<0.05). HPV16/16-like and HPV18/18-like groups showed heterogeneity (p<0.05) in terms of how CD4 counts, HIV VL, and HAART affected probability of clearance of each HPV infection. This new model predicts the 3-month probability of HPV infection clearance based on CD4 cell counts and other HIV-1-related clinical measurements.

Modeling exotic highly pathogenic avian influenza virus entrance risk through air passenger violations.

PubMed

Lai, Jyh-Mirn; Hwang, Yi-Ting; Chou, Chin-Cheng

2012-06-01

The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is able to survive in poultry products and could be carried into a country by air travelers. An assessment model was constructed to estimate the probability of the exotic viable HPAIV entering Taiwan from two neighboring areas through poultry products carried illegally by air passengers at Taiwan's main airports. The entrance risk was evaluated based on HPAIV-related factors (the prevalence and the incubation period of HPAIV; the manufacturing process of poultry products; and the distribution-storage-transportation factor event) and the passenger event. Distribution functions were adopted to simulate the probabilities of each HPAIV factor. The odds of passengers being intercepted with illegal poultry products were estimated by logistic regression. The Monte Carlo simulation established that the risk caused by HPAIV-related factors from area A was lower than area B, whereas the entrance risk by the passenger event from area A was similar to area B. Sensitivity analysis showed that the incubation period of HPAIV and the interception of passenger violations were major determinants. Although the result showed viable HPAIV was unlikely to enter Taiwan through meat illegally carried by air passengers, this low probability could be caused by incomplete animal disease data and modeling uncertainties. Considering the negative socioeconomic impacts of HPAIV outbreaks, strengthening airport quarantine measures is still necessary. This assessment provides a profile of HPAIV entrance risk through air travelers arriving from endemic areas and a feasible direction for quarantine and public health measures. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Disordered eating behaviors among transgender youth: Probability profiles from risk and protective factors.

PubMed

Watson, Ryan J; Veale, Jaimie F; Saewyc, Elizabeth M

2017-05-01

Research has documented high rates of disordered eating for lesbian, gay, and bisexual youth, but prevalence and patterns of disordered eating among transgender youth remain unexplored. This is despite unique challenges faced by this group, including gender-related body image and the use of hormones. We explore the relationship between disordered eating and risk and protective factors for transgender youth. An online survey of 923 transgender youth (aged 14-25) across Canada was conducted, primarily using measures from existing youth health surveys. Analyses were stratified by gender identity and included logistic regressions with probability profiles to illustrate combinations of risk and protective factors for eating disordered behaviors. Enacted stigma (the higher rates of harassment and discrimination sexual minority youth experience) was linked to higher odds of reported past year binge eating and fasting or vomiting to lose weight, while protective factors, including family connectedness, school connectedness, caring friends, and social support, were linked to lower odds of past year disordered eating. Youth with the highest levels of enacted stigma and no protective factors had high probabilities of past year eating disordered behaviors. Our study found high prevalence of disorders. Risk for these behaviors was linked to stigma and violence exposure, but offset by social supports. Health professionals should assess transgender youth for disordered eating behaviors and supportive resources. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.(Int J Eat Disord 2017; 50:515-522). © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk factors for cardiomyopathy syndrome (CMS) in Norwegian salmon farming.

PubMed

Bang Jensen, Britt; Brun, Edgar; Fineid, Birgitte; Larssen, Rolf Bjerke; Kristoffersen, Anja B

2013-12-12

Cardiomyopathy syndrome (CMS) has been an economically important disease in Norwegian aquaculture since the 1990s. In this study, data on monthly production characteristics and case registrations were combined in a cohort study and supplemented with a questionnaire-based case-control survey on management factors in order to identify risk factors for CMS. The cohort study included cases and controls from 2005 to 2012. From this dataset differences between all cases and controls were analyzed by a mixed effect multivariate logistic regression. From this we found that the probability of CMS increased with increasing time in the sea, infection pressure, and cohort size, and that cohorts which had previously been diagnosed with heart and skeletal muscle inflammation or which were in farms with a history of CMS in previous cohorts had double the odds of developing CMS. The model was then used to calculate the predicted value for each cohort from which additional data were obtained via the questionnaire-based survey and used as offset for calculating the probability of CMS in a semi-univariate analysis of additional risk factors. Finally, the model was used to calculate the probability of developing CMS in 100 different scenarios in which the cohorts were subject to increasingly worse conditions with regards to the risk factors from the dataset. We believe that this exercise is a good way of communicating the findings to farmers, so they can make informed decisions when trying to avoid CMS in their fish cohorts.

Epidemiology of Invasive Mold Infections in Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients: Biological Risk Factors for Infection According to Time after Transplantation

PubMed Central

Garcia-Vidal, Carol; Upton, Arlo; Kirby, Katharine A.; Marr, Kieren A.

2009-01-01

Background Invasive mold infections (IMIs) are common in individuals who have undergone hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We sought to determine clinical and biological risk factors for different IMIs during each period (early and late) after allogeneic HSCT. Methods Cases of proven and probable IMI diagnosed in HSCT recipients at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (Seattle, WA) from 1 January 1998 through 31 December 2002 were included. Survival was estimated with Kaplan-Meier curves, and Cox regression models were used for multivariable analyses. Results During the study period, 1248 patients underwent allogeneic HSCT; 163 (13.1%) received a diagnosis of probable or proven IMI. The majority of cases were caused by Aspergillus species (88%). The incidence of IMI caused by other molds remained low (<2%) over the 4-year study period. Risk factors for IMI early after HSCT and late after HSCT differed, with host variables (age) and transplant variables (human leukocyte antigen match) predominating as early risk factors and other clinical complications (graft-versus-host disease and cytomegalovirus disease) predominating later. Biological risk factors that were important during all periods included multiple cytopenias (neutropenia, lymphopenia, and monocytopenia) and iron overload. Conclusions Risk factors for invasive aspergillosis after allogeneic HSCT are multifactorial and differ according to timing after HSCT. Increased attention should be placed on understanding the immunopathogenesis of fungal disease after HSCT. PMID:18781877

Risk of Skin Cancer from Space Radiation. Chapter 11

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; George, Kerry A.; Wu, Hong-Lu

2003-01-01

We review the methods for estimating the probability of increased incidence of skin cancers from space radiation exposure, and describe some of the individual factors that may contribute to risk projection models, including skin pigment, and synergistic effects of combined ionizing and UV exposure. The steep dose gradients from trapped electrons, protons, and heavy ions radiation during EVA and limitations in EVA dosimetry are important factors for projecting skin cancer risk of astronauts. We estimate that the probability of increased skin cancer risk varies more than 10-fold for individual astronauts and that the risk of skin cancer could exceed 1 % for future lunar base operations for astronauts with light skin color and hair. Limitations in physical dosimetry in estimating the distribution of dose at the skin suggest that new biodosimetry methods be developed for responding to accidental overexposure of the skin during future space missions.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Beth; Myers, Jerry; Sibonga, Jean Diane

2017-01-01

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

Interaction between body mass index and central adiposity and risk of incident cognitive impairment and dementia: results from the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study.

PubMed

Kerwin, Diana R; Gaussoin, Sarah A; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Kuller, Lewis H; Vitolins, Mara; Coker, Laura H; Kotchen, Jane M; Nicklas, Barbara J; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Hoffmann, Raymond G; Espeland, Mark A

2011-01-01

To assess the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and waist-hip ratio (WHR) and the clinical end points of cognitive impairment and probable dementia in a cohort of older women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study (WHIMS). Prospective, randomized clinical trial of hormone therapies with annual cognitive assessments and anthropometrics. Fourteen U.S. clinical sites of the WHIMS. Seven thousand one hundred sixty-three postmenopausal women aged 65 to 80 without dementia. Annual cognitive assessments, average follow-up of 4.4 years, including classification of incident cognitive impairment and probable dementia. Height, weight, waist, and hip measurements were assessed at baseline, and a waist-hip ratio (WHR) of 0.8 or greater was used as a marker of central adiposity. There were statistically significant interactions between BMI and WHR and incident cognitive impairment and probable dementia with and without adjustment for a panel of cognitive risk factors. Women with a WHR of 0.80 or greater with a BMI of 20.0 to 24.9 kg/m² had a greater risk of cognitive impairment and probable dementia than more-obese women or women with a WHR less than 0.80, although women with a WHR less than 0.80 and a BMI of 20.0 to 24.9 kg/m² had poorer scores on cognitive assessments. WHR affects the relationship between BMI and risk of cognitive impairment and probable dementia in older women. Underweight women (BMI < 20.0 kg/m²) with a WHR less than 0.80 had a greater risk than those with higher BMIs. In normal-weight to obese women (20.0-29.9 kg/m², central adiposity (WHR ≥ 0.80) is associated with greater risk of cognitive impairment and probable dementia than in women with higher BMI. These data suggest that central adiposity as a risk factor for cognitive impairment and probable dementia in normal-weight women. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2011, The American Geriatrics Society.

Israeli adolescents with ongoing exposure to terrorism: suicidal ideation, posttraumatic stress disorder, and functional impairment.

PubMed

Chemtob, Claude M; Pat-Horenczyk, Ruth; Madan, Anita; Pitman, Seth R; Wang, Yanping; Doppelt, Osnat; Burns, Kelly Dugan; Abramovitz, Robert; Brom, Daniel

2011-12-01

In this study, we examined the relationships among terrorism exposure, functional impairment, suicidal ideation, and probable partial or full posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) from exposure to terrorism in adolescents continuously exposed to this threat in Israel. A convenience sample of 2,094 students, aged 12 to 18, was drawn from 10 Israeli secondary schools. In terms of demographic factors, older age was associated with increased risk for suicidal ideation, OR = 1.33, 95% CI [1.09, 1.62], p < .01, but was protective against probable partial or full PTSD, OR = 0.72, 95% CI [0.54, 0.95], p < .05; female gender was associated with greater likelihood of probable partial or full PTSD, OR = 1.57, 95% CI [1.02, 2.40], p < .05. Exposure to trauma due to terrorism was associated with increased risk for each of the measured outcomes including probable partial or full PTSD, functional impairment, and suicidal ideation. When age, gender, level of exposure to terrorism, probable partial or full PTSD, and functional impairment were examined together, only terrorism exposure and functional impairment were associated with suicidal ideation. This study underscores the importance and feasibility of examining exposure to terrorism and functional impairment as risk factors for suicidal ideation. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

Assessing risk factors in the organic control system: evidence from inspection data in Italy.

PubMed

Zanoli, Raffaele; Gambelli, Danilo; Solfanelli, Francesco

2014-12-01

Certification is an essential feature in organic farming, and it is based on inspections to verify compliance with respect to European Council Regulation-EC Reg. No 834/2007. A risk-based approach to noncompliance that alerts the control bodies to activate planning inspections would contribute to a more efficient and cost-effective certification system. An analysis of factors that can affect the probability of noncompliance in organic farming has thus been developed. This article examines the application of zero-inflated count data models to farm-level panel data from inspection results and sanctions obtained from the Ethical and Environmental Certification Institute, one of the main control bodies in Italy. We tested many a priori hypotheses related to the risk of noncompliance. We find evidence of an important role for past noncompliant behavior in predicting future noncompliance, while farm size and the occurrence of livestock also have roles in an increased probability of noncompliance. We conclude the article proposing that an efficient risk-based inspection system should be designed, weighting up the known probability of occurrence of a given noncompliance according to the severity of its impact. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

PubMed

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the classification tree. 3000 women participated in the study. The high-risk type HPV infection rate was 8.7%, the persistent infection rate was 7.5%. The persistent infection rates for the 2 age groups (ages 18-26 and 27-30) were 6.9% and 8.7%. The persistent infection rates of Xiangfen county were 7.4% and 7.4% respectively, and those of Quwo county were 7.8% and 11.6% respectively; there was no significant difference between each pair of groups. Single risk-factor analysis showed that first-time sex at age under 20, high school/technical secondary school education or above, multiple sexual partners, having more than 2 sexual partners in the past 6 months, oral sex, and colitis are the risk factors of high-risk type HPV infection. Multivariate analysis showed that the number of sexual partners, smoking and oral sex had an effect on HPV infection. The risk of HPV infection from smoking was 5.0-fold higher, and the risk of HPV infection from oral sex was 6.1-fold higher. Having more than 2 sexual partners increase the risk of HPV infection. By the predicated model analysis, the probability of HPV conveyed by oral sex was 14.8%; if the sexual companion number was zero or more than 2 without oral sex, the probability of HPV infection was 12.1%; if there was one sexual partner who smokes without oral sex, the probability of infection was 18.6%; if there was one sexual partner who does not smoke and without oral sex, the probability of infection was 3.6%. The persistent infection rate of asymptomatic women for high-risk type HPV is lower than those women in all ages. High-risk type HPV infection risk factors include the number of sexual partners, oral sex and smoking. Thus, young women may be able to reduce the risk of infection with high-risk type HPV by reducing the number of sexual partners, forming a correct sexual life habit, and avoiding smoking.

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV IVb) risk factors and association measures derived by expert panel

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2010-01-01

Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) is an OIE-listed pathogen of fish, recently expanding in known host and geographic range in North America. Through a group process designed for subjective probability assessment, an international panel of fish health experts identified and weighted risk factors perceived important to the emergence and spread of the viral genotype, VHSV IVb, within and from the Great Lakes region of the US and Canada. Identified factors included the presence of known VHSV-susceptible species, water temperatures conducive for disease, hydrologic connectivity and proximity to known VHSV-positive areas, untested shipments of live or frozen fish from known positive regions, insufficient regulatory infrastructure for fish health oversight, and uncontrolled exposure to fomites associated with boat and equipment or fish wastes from known VHSV-positive areas. Results provide qualitative insights for use in VHSV surveillance and risk-management planning, and quantitative estimates of contextual risk for use in a Bayesian model combining multiple evidence streams for joint probability assessment of disease freedom status. Consistency checks suggest that the compiled factors positively reflect expert judgment of watershed risk for acquiring VHSV IVb. External validation is recommended as the availability of empirical data permits.

Framing From Experience: Cognitive Processes and Predictions of Risky Choice.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Cleotilde; Mehlhorn, Katja

2016-07-01

A framing bias shows risk aversion in problems framed as "gains" and risk seeking in problems framed as "losses," even when these are objectively equivalent and probabilities and outcomes values are explicitly provided. We test this framing bias in situations where decision makers rely on their own experience, sampling the problem's options (safe and risky) and seeing the outcomes before making a choice. In Experiment 1, we replicate the framing bias in description-based decisions and find risk indifference in gains and losses in experience-based decisions. Predictions of an Instance-Based Learning model suggest that objective probabilities as well as the number of samples taken are factors that contribute to the lack of framing effect. We test these two factors in Experiment 2 and find no framing effect when a few samples are taken but when large samples are taken, the framing effect appears regardless of the objective probability values. Implications of behavioral results and cognitive modeling are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Information Security Risk Assessment in Hospitals

PubMed Central

Ayatollahi, Haleh; Shagerdi, Ghazal

2017-01-01

Background: To date, many efforts have been made to classify information security threats, especially in the healthcare area. However, there are still many unknown risks which may threat the security of health information and their resources especially in the hospitals. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the risks threatening information security in the hospitals located in one of the northwest cities of Iran. Method: This study was completed in 2014. The participants were information technology managers who worked in the hospitals (n=27). The research instrument was a questionnaire composed of a number of open and closed questions. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed, and the reliability of the closed questions was measured by using the test-retest method (r =0.78). Results: The results showed that among the information security risks, fire found to be a high probability/high impact risk factor. Human and physical/environmental threats were among the low probability risk factors. Regarding the information security safeguards used in the hospitals, the results showed that the use of the technical safeguards was the most frequent one (n =22, 91.7%) compared to the administrative (n =21, 87.5%) and the physical safeguards (n =16, 66.7%). Conclusion: The high probability risk factors require quick corrective actions to be taken. Therefore, the underlying causes of such threats should be identified and controlled before experiencing adverse effects. It is also important to note that information security in health care systems needs to be considered at a macro level with respect to the national interests and policies. PMID:29204226

The influence of socioeconomic factors on cardiovascular disease risk factors in the context of economic development in the Samoan archipelago.

PubMed

Ezeamama, Amara E; Viali, Satupaitea; Tuitele, John; McGarvey, Stephen T

2006-11-01

Early in economic development there are positive associations between socioeconomic status (SES) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, and in the most developed market economy societies there are negative associations. The purpose of this report is to describe cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between indicators of SES and CVD risk factors in a genetically homogenous population of Samoans at different levels of economic development. At baseline 1289 participants 25-58yrs, and at 4-year follow-up, 963 participants were studied in less economically developed Samoa and in more developed American Samoa. SES was assessed by education, occupation, and material lifestyle at baseline. The CVD risk factors, obesity, type-2 diabetes and hypertension were measured at baseline and 4-year follow-up, and an index of any incident CVD risk factor at follow-up was calculated. Sex and location (Samoa and American Samoa) specific multivariable logistic regression models were used to test for relationships between SES and CVD risk factors at baseline after adjustment for age and the other SES indicators. In addition an ordinal SES index was constructed for each individual based on all three SES indicators, and used in a multivariable model to estimate the predicted probability of CVD risk factors across the SES index for the two locations. In both the models using specific SES measures and CVD risk factor outcomes, and the models using the ordinal SES index and predicted probabilities of CVD risk factors, we detected a pattern of high SES associated with: (1) elevated odds of CVD risk factors in less developed Samoa, and (2) decreased odds of CVD risk factors in more developed American Samoa. We conclude that the pattern of inverse associations between SES and CVD risk factors in Samoa and direct associations in American Samoa is attributable to the heterogeneity across the Samoas in specific exposures to social processes of economic development and the natural history of individual CVD risk factors. The findings suggest that interventions on non-communicable diseases in the Samoas must be devised based on the level of economic development, the socio-economic context of risk factor exposures, and individual characteristics such as age, sex and education level.

Stress fracture risk factors in female football players and their clinical implications

PubMed Central

Warden, Stuart J; Creaby, Mark W; Bryant, Adam L; Crossley, Kay M

2007-01-01

A stress fracture represents the inability of the skeleton to withstand repetitive bouts of mechanical loading, which results in structural fatigue, and resultant signs and symptoms of localised pain and tenderness. Reports of stress fractures in female football players are not prevalent; however, they are probably under‐reported and their importance lies in the morbidity that they cause in terms of time lost from participation. By considering risk factors for stress fractures in female football players it may be possible to reduce the impact of these troublesome injuries. Risk factors for stress fractures in female football players include intrinsic risk factors such as gender, endocrine, nutritional, physical fitness and neuromusculoskeletal factors, as well as extrinsic risk factors such as training programme, equipment and environmental factors. This paper discusses these risk factors and their implications in terms of developing prevention and management strategies for stress fractures in female football players. PMID:17584950

Stress fracture risk factors in female football players and their clinical implications.

PubMed

Warden, Stuart J; Creaby, Mark W; Bryant, Adam L; Crossley, Kay M

2007-08-01

A stress fracture represents the inability of the skeleton to withstand repetitive bouts of mechanical loading, which results in structural fatigue, and resultant signs and symptoms of localised pain and tenderness. Reports of stress fractures in female football players are not prevalent; however, they are probably under-reported and their importance lies in the morbidity that they cause in terms of time lost from participation. By considering risk factors for stress fractures in female football players it may be possible to reduce the impact of these troublesome injuries. Risk factors for stress fractures in female football players include intrinsic risk factors such as gender, endocrine, nutritional, physical fitness and neuromusculoskeletal factors, as well as extrinsic risk factors such as training programme, equipment and environmental factors. This paper discusses these risk factors and their implications in terms of developing prevention and management strategies for stress fractures in female football players.

Histology-specific risks in testicular cancer in immigrants to Sweden.

PubMed

Hemminki, Kari; Mousavi, Seyed Mohsen; Brandt, Andreas; Ji, Jianguang; Sundquist, Jan

2010-06-01

The changes of cancer incidence upon immigration have been used as an estimator of environmental influence on cancer risk. The previous immigrant studies have indicated that the origins of testicular cancer are at an early age in life, probably in the intrauterine period. We wanted to reexamine the critical periods on histology-specific testicular cancer in sons of immigrants to Sweden. We used the nationwide Swedish Family-Cancer Database to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for testicular cancer in sons of parents immigrating to Sweden from low- and high-risk countries compared with the native Swedes. Among the large immigrant groups, the SIRs for sons of two Finnish and Asian parents were decreased if the sons were born outside Sweden. The sons of a Danish immigrant couple showed an increased risk of testicular cancer. The changes in SIR were most systematic for seminoma. The present patterns of testicular cancer risk among sons of immigrants point to the early environmental risk factors, which influence the risk probably after the intrauterine period. These factors appear to influence seminoma risk in a more enduring way than they influence non-seminoma.

Long-term therapy in COPD: any evidence of adverse effect on bone?

PubMed Central

Langhammer, Arnulf; Forsmo, Siri; Syversen, Unni

2009-01-01

Patients with COPD have high risk for osteoporosis and fractures. Hip and vertebral fractures might impair mobility, and vertebral fractures further reduce lung function. This review discusses the evidence of bone loss due to medical treatment opposed to disease severity and risk factors for COPD, and therapeutic options for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis in these patients. A review of the English-language literature was conducted using the MEDLINE database until June 2009. Currently used bronchodilators probably lack adverse effect on bone. Oral corticosteroids (OCS) increase bone resorption and decrease bone formation in a dose response relationship, but the fracture risk is increased more than reflected by bone densitometry. Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) have been associated with both increased bone loss and fracture risk. This might be a result of confounding by disease severity, but high doses of ICS have similar effects as equipotent doses of OCS. The life-style factors should be modified, use of regular OCS avoided and use of ICS restricted to those with evidenced effect and probably kept at moderate doses. The health care should actively reveal risk factors, include bone densitometry in fracture risk evaluation, and give adequate prevention and treatment for osteoporosis. PMID:19888355

A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

2018-01-01

Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

Outcome and risk factors of recurrence after thoracoscopic bullectomy in young adults with primary spontaneous pneumothorax.

PubMed

Nakayama, Takashi; Takahashi, Yusuke; Uehara, Hirofumi; Matsutani, Noriyuki; Kawamura, Masafumi

2017-07-01

To investigate the risk factors of recurrence of pneumothorax following thoracoscopic bullectomy in young adults. Between January, 2005 and September, 2015, 167 patients aged ≤40 years underwent initial thoracoscopic bullectomy for primary spontaneous pneumothorax (PSP) at our hospital. Recurrence-free probability was calculated from the date of surgery to recurrence or last follow-up, using the Kaplan-Meier method. Sixteen (9.6%) of the 167 patients suffered a recurrence (collective total, 16 recurrences). The recurrence-free intervals were 3-107 months (median 25.8 months), and the 5-year recurrence-free probability was 85.9%. Multivariate Cox analysis demonstrated that age ≤23 years (p = 0.029) and a history of ipsilateral pneumothorax before surgery (p = 0.029) were significantly associated with higher risk of recurrence. The 5-year recurrence-free probability was 72.3% for patients aged ≤23 years and a history of ipsilateral pneumothorax before surgery and 94.1% for those with neither of these factors (p = 0.001). Recurrence developed within 3 years after surgery in 14 of the 16 patients. Patients ≤23 years of age with a history of ipsilateral pneumothorax before surgery are at significantly high risk of its recurrence, frequently within 3 years; thus, the risk of postoperative recurrence of a pneumothorax must be kept in mind.

Mammographic density, breast cancer risk and risk prediction

PubMed Central

Vachon, Celine M; van Gils, Carla H; Sellers, Thomas A; Ghosh, Karthik; Pruthi, Sandhya; Brandt, Kathleen R; Pankratz, V Shane

2007-01-01

In this review, we examine the evidence for mammographic density as an independent risk factor for breast cancer, describe the risk prediction models that have incorporated density, and discuss the current and future implications of using mammographic density in clinical practice. Mammographic density is a consistent and strong risk factor for breast cancer in several populations and across age at mammogram. Recently, this risk factor has been added to existing breast cancer risk prediction models, increasing the discriminatory accuracy with its inclusion, albeit slightly. With validation, these models may replace the existing Gail model for clinical risk assessment. However, absolute risk estimates resulting from these improved models are still limited in their ability to characterize an individual's probability of developing cancer. Promising new measures of mammographic density, including volumetric density, which can be standardized using full-field digital mammography, will likely result in a stronger risk factor and improve accuracy of risk prediction models. PMID:18190724

The Probable Prevalence and Sociodemographic Characteristics of Specific Learning Disorder in Primary School Children in Edirne.

PubMed

Görker, Işık; Bozatli, Leyla; Korkmazlar, Ümran; Yücel Karadağ, Meltem; Ceylan, Cansın; Söğüt, Ceren; Aykutlu, Hasan Cem; Subay, Büşra; Turan, Nesrin

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to research the probable prevalence of Specific Learning Disorder (SLD) in primary school children in Edirne City and the relationships with their sociodemographic characteristics. The sample of our study was composed of 2,174 children who were educated in primary schools in second, third, and fourth grades in the academic year 2013-2014 in Edirne City. The teachers and parents of these children were given Specific Learning Difficulties Symptom Scale, Learning Disabilities Symptoms Checklist (teacher and parent forms), and sociodemographic data forms to fill in. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to assess the risk factors for SLD. Our study revealed that the probable prevalence of SLD was 13.6%; 17% for boys and 10.4% for girls. Reading impairment was 3.6%, writing impairment was 6.9%, and mathematic impairment was 6.5%. We determined that consanguineous marriages, low income, history of neonatal jaundice were found as risks for SLD; born by caesarean, developmental delay of walking, and history of neonatal jaundice were found as risks for mathematic impairment. A history of learning difficulties of parents was a risk factor for forming SLD and subtypes. Our findings were consistent with other study results about the prevalence of SLD. The relationships between the probable prevalence rates and sociodemographic data were discussed.

The Probable Prevalence and Sociodemographic Characteristics of Specific Learning Disorder in Primary School Children in Edirne

PubMed Central

GÖRKER, Işık; BOZATLI, Leyla; KORKMAZLAR, Ümran; YÜCEL KARADAĞ, Meltem; CEYLAN, Cansın; SÖĞÜT, Ceren; AYKUTLU, Hasan Cem; SUBAY, Büşra; TURAN, Nesrin

2017-01-01

Introduction The aim of this study was to research the probable prevalence of Specific Learning Disorder (SLD) in primary school children in Edirne City and the relationships with their sociodemographic characteristics. Methods The sample of our study was composed of 2,174 children who were educated in primary schools in second, third, and fourth grades in the academic year 2013–2014 in Edirne City. The teachers and parents of these children were given Specific Learning Difficulties Symptom Scale, Learning Disabilities Symptoms Checklist (teacher and parent forms), and sociodemographic data forms to fill in. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to assess the risk factors for SLD. Results Our study revealed that the probable prevalence of SLD was 13.6%; 17% for boys and 10.4% for girls. Reading impairment was 3.6%, writing impairment was 6.9%, and mathematic impairment was 6.5%. We determined that consanguineous marriages, low income, history of neonatal jaundice were found as risks for SLD; born by caesarean, developmental delay of walking, and history of neonatal jaundice were found as risks for mathematic impairment. A history of learning difficulties of parents was a risk factor for forming SLD and subtypes. Conclusion Our findings were consistent with other study results about the prevalence of SLD. The relationships between the probable prevalence rates and sociodemographic data were discussed. PMID:29321709

Revisiting the J shaped curve, exploring the association between cardiovascular risk factors and concurrent depressive symptoms in patients with cardiometabolic disease: Findings from a large cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Jani, Bhautesh Dinesh; Cavanagh, Jonathan; Barry, Sarah J E; Der, Geoff; Sattar, Naveed; Mair, Frances S

2014-10-28

Depression is common in patients with cardiometabolic diseases but little is known about the relationship, if any, between cardiovascular risk factor values and depressive symptoms in patients with these conditions. The objective of this paper is to study the association between cardiovascular risk factors and concurrent depressive symptoms in patients with three common cardiometabolic conditions: coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and diabetes. We retrospectively reviewed primary care data for N = 35537 with 1 of the above 3 conditions who underwent depression screening using the depressive subscale of hospital anxiety and depression score (HADS-D). We reviewed 4 cardiometabolic risk factors (Systolic Blood Pressure [SBP], Diastolic Blood Pressure [DBP], BMI and total cholesterol) recorded concurrently in all patients and HbA1c in patients with diabetes (n = 18453). We analysed the association between individual risk factor value and a positive HADS-D screening result (>7) using logistic regression. SBP and BMI were noted to have a non-linear "J-shaped" relationship with the probability of having a positive HADS-D and observed nadirs (levels with the lowest probability) of 148 mm Hg and 30.70 kg/m2, respectively. Total cholesterol and DBP found to have a weaker curvilinear association with concurrent depression symptoms and nadirs of 3.60 mmol/l and 74 mmHg. Among patients with Diabetes, HbA1c was also found to have a "J-shaped" relationship with probability of having a positive HADS-D with an observed nadir of 7.06% DCCT. The above relationships remain significant after adjusting for age, sex, socio-economic status and number of co-morbid conditions. In patients with cardiometabolic disease, cardiovascular risk factor values at both extremes were associated with higher positive depression screening after adjusting for confounders. These findings have potentially important implications for clinical practice in relation to both risk stratification for depression and approaches to secondary prevention in individuals with cardiometabolic disease and merit further investigation to determine the nature and direction of the observed association.Please see related article: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/12/199.

Pretest probability estimation in the evaluation of patients with possible deep vein thrombosis.

PubMed

Vinson, David R; Patel, Jason P; Irving, Cedric S

2011-07-01

An estimation of pretest probability is integral to the proper interpretation of a negative compression ultrasound in the diagnostic assessment of lower-extremity deep vein thrombosis. We sought to determine the rate, method, and predictors of pretest probability estimation in such patients. This cross-sectional study of outpatients was conducted in a suburban community hospital in 2006. Estimation of pretest probability was done by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay d-dimer, Wells criteria, and unstructured clinical impression. Using logistic regression analysis, we measured predictors of documented risk assessment. A cohort analysis was undertaken to compare 3-month thromboembolic outcomes between risk groups. Among 524 cases, 289 (55.2%) underwent pretest probability estimation using the following methods: enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay d-dimer (228; 43.5%), clinical impression (106; 20.2%), and Wells criteria (24; 4.6%), with 69 (13.2%) patients undergoing a combination of at least two methods. Patient factors were not predictive of pretest probability estimation, but the specialty of the clinician was predictive; emergency physicians (P < .0001) and specialty clinicians (P = .001) were less likely than primary care clinicians to perform risk assessment. Thromboembolic events within 3 months were experienced by 0 of 52 patients in the explicitly low-risk group, 4 (1.8%) of 219 in the explicitly moderate- to high-risk group, and 1 (0.4%) of 226 in the group that did not undergo explicit risk assessment. Negative ultrasounds in the workup of deep vein thrombosis are commonly interpreted in isolation apart from pretest probability estimations. Risk assessments varied by physician specialties. Opportunities exist for improvement in the diagnostic evaluation of these patients. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting the Risk of Breakthrough Urinary Tract Infections: Primary Vesicoureteral Reflux.

PubMed

Hidas, Guy; Billimek, John; Nam, Alexander; Soltani, Tandis; Kelly, Maryellen S; Selby, Blake; Dorgalli, Crystal; Wehbi, Elias; McAleer, Irene; McLorie, Gordon; Greenfield, Sheldon; Kaplan, Sherrie H; Khoury, Antoine E

2015-11-01

We constructed a risk prediction instrument stratifying patients with primary vesicoureteral reflux into groups according to their 2-year probability of breakthrough urinary tract infection. Demographic and clinical information was retrospectively collected in children diagnosed with primary vesicoureteral reflux and followed for 2 years. Bivariate and binary logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with breakthrough urinary tract infection. The final regression model was used to compute an estimation of the 2-year probability of breakthrough urinary tract infection for each subject. Accuracy of the binary classifier for breakthrough urinary tract infection was evaluated using receiver operator curve analysis. Three distinct risk groups were identified. The model was then validated in a prospective cohort. A total of 252 bivariate analyses showed that high grade (IV or V) vesicoureteral reflux (OR 9.4, 95% CI 3.8-23.5, p <0.001), presentation after urinary tract infection (OR 5.3, 95% CI 1.1-24.7, p = 0.034) and female gender (OR 2.6, 95% CI 0.097-7.11, p <0.054) were important risk factors for breakthrough urinary tract infection. Subgroup analysis revealed bladder and bowel dysfunction was a significant risk factor more pronounced in low grade (I to III) vesicoureteral reflux (OR 2.8, p = 0.018). The estimation model was applied for prospective validation, which demonstrated predicted vs actual 2-year breakthrough urinary tract infection rates of 19% vs 21%. Stratifying the patients into 3 risk groups based on parameters in the risk model showed 2-year risk for breakthrough urinary tract infection was 8.6%, 26.0% and 62.5% in the low, intermediate and high risk groups, respectively. This proposed risk stratification and probability model allows prediction of 2-year risk of patient breakthrough urinary tract infection to better inform parents of possible outcomes and treatment strategies. Copyright © 2015 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of an Employee Wellness Program on Physiological Risk Factors, Job Satisfaction, and Monetary Savings in a South Texas University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamilton, Jacqueline

2009-01-01

An experimental study was conducted to investigate the effects of an Employee Wellness Program on physiological risk factors, job satisfaction, and monetary savings in a South Texas University. The non-probability sample consisted of 31 employees from lower income level positions. The employees were randomly assigned to the treatment group which…

Breast cancer: critical data analysis concludes that estrogens are not the cause, however lifestyle changes can alter risk rapidly.

PubMed

Wiseman, Richard A

2004-08-01

The theory that estrogens are causally associated with increased risk of breast cancer and the question of whether lifetime cumulative exposure is necessary are critically reviewed. Systematic search was made of published epidemiological and clinical data relating to estrogen concentrations at different times and situations, and of breast cancer incidence with age and after lifestyle changes. Breast cancer incidence increases with age, although the rate of increase slows. Reproductive factors are known to affect risk, but data that do not fit the theory of estrogen causation include low estradiol levels and decline of estrogen excretion postmenopausally, rates in HRT-takers, absence of increased rate during or after pregnancy, and breast cancer in men. Breast cancer risk can be altered by external factors within a few years, as shown by studies in both Norway and England during World War II, by changing rates in migrant populations, and by the effect on rates of recent adiposity. It is probable that estrogens act as promoters rather than being directly causal. Even as promoters, lifetime exposure to estrogens is not necessary. The cause is most probably a lifestyle factor, changes in which can rapidly alter risk. This has important implications in the search for a causative factor.

A novel method to identify herds with an increased probability of disease introduction due to animal trade.

PubMed

Frössling, Jenny; Nusinovici, Simon; Nöremark, Maria; Widgren, Stefan; Lindberg, Ann

2014-11-15

In the design of surveillance, there is often a desire to target high risk herds. Such risk-based approaches result in better allocation of resources and improve the performance of surveillance activities. For many contagious animal diseases, movement of live animals is a main route of transmission, and because of this, herds that purchase many live animals or have a large contact network due to trade can be seen as a high risk stratum of the population. This paper presents a new method to assess herd disease risk in animal movement networks. It is an improvement to current network measures that takes direction, temporal order, and also movement size and probability of disease into account. In the study, the method was used to calculate a probability of disease ratio (PDR) of herds in simulated datasets, and of real herds based on animal movement data from dairy herds included in a bulk milk survey for Coxiella burnetii. Known differences in probability of disease are easily incorporated in the calculations and the PDR was calculated while accounting for regional differences in probability of disease, and also by applying equal probability of disease throughout the population. Each herd's increased probability of disease due to purchase of animals was compared to both the average herd and herds within the same risk stratum. The results show that the PDR is able to capture the different circumstances related to disease prevalence and animal trade contact patterns. Comparison of results based on inclusion or exclusion of differences in risk also highlights how ignoring such differences can influence the ability to correctly identify high risk herds. The method shows a potential to be useful for risk-based surveillance, in the classification of herds in control programmes or to represent influential contacts in risk factor studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Colorectal Cancer Knowledge among Adults in the United Arab Emirates

PubMed

Al-Sharbatti, Shatha; Muttappallymyalil, Jayakumary; Sreedharan, Jayadevan; Almosawy, Yasien

2017-09-27

Objective: To assess knowledge regarding colorectal cancer (CRC) and to identify its predictors in the UAE. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted among subjects ≥ 50 years-old, using a validated self-administered questionnaire. Awareness of CRC risk factors, warning signs/symptoms (S/S), and screening methods was evaluated with a level of knowledge score for various areas. Low (poor) knowledge was defined as a score below the corresponding average value. The Chi-square test and logistic regression were used in the statistical analysis. Results: The percentage of respondents who had poor knowledge score concerning risk factors, warning S/S and screening were 81.7%, 84.7% and 94.1% respectively. Male and lower education level subjects had significantly higher probability of low knowledge related to risk factors and warning S/S. Also respondents without a family history of CRC or personal history of polyps had a significantly higher probability of low knowledge concerning warning S/S compared to those who had a positive history. Significantly higher probability of low knowledge concerning screening methods was noted among non-Arabs and subjects with a lower education level. Conclusion: Most of the respondents had poor knowledge. Gender, education level, family and personal history and ethnicity were found to be significant predictors of CRC knowledge. Creative Commons Attribution License

Posttraumatic stress disorder and associated risk factors in Canadian peacekeeping veterans with health-related disabilities.

PubMed

Richardson, J Don; Naifeh, James A; Elhai, Jon D

2007-08-01

This study investigates posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and its associated risk factors in a random, national, Canadian sample of United Nations peacekeeping veterans with service-related disabilities. Participants included 1016 male veterans (age < 65 years) who served in the Canadian Forces from 1990 to 1999 and were selected from a larger random sample of 1968 veterans who voluntarily and anonymously completed a general health survey conducted by Veterans Affairs Canada in 1999. Survey instruments included the PTSD Checklist-Military Version (PCL-M), Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D), and questionnaires regarding life events during the past year, current stressors, sociodemographic characteristics, and military history. We found that rates of probable PTSD (PCL-M score > 50) among veterans were 10.92% for veterans deployed once and 14.84% for those deployed more than once. The rates of probable clinical depression (CES-D score > 16) were 30.35% for veterans deployed once and 32.62% for those deployed more than once. We found that, in multivariate analyses, probable PTSD rates and PTSD severity were associated with younger age, single marital status, and deployment frequency. PTSD is an important health concern in the veteran population. Understanding such risk factors as younger age and unmarried status can help predict morbidity among trauma-exposed veterans.

Predictors of Colorectal Cancer Knowledge among Adults in the United Arab Emirates

PubMed Central

Al-Sharbatti, Shatha; Muttappallymyalil, Jayakumary; Sreedharan, Jayadevan; Almosawy, Yasien

2017-01-01

Objective: To assess knowledge regarding colorectal cancer (CRC) and to identify its predictors in the UAE. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted among subjects ≥ 50 years-old, using a validated self-administered questionnaire. Awareness of CRC risk factors, warning signs/symptoms (S/S), and screening methods was evaluated with a level of knowledge score for various areas. Low (poor) knowledge was defined as a score below the corresponding average value. The Chi-square test and logistic regression were used in the statistical analysis. Results: The percentage of respondents who had poor knowledge score concerning risk factors, warning S/S and screening were 81.7%, 84.7% and 94.1% respectively. Male and lower education level subjects had significantly higher probability of low knowledge related to risk factors and warning S/S. Also respondents without a family history of CRC or personal history of polyps had a significantly higher probability of low knowledge concerning warning S/S compared to those who had a positive history. Significantly higher probability of low knowledge concerning screening methods was noted among non-Arabs and subjects with a lower education level. Conclusion: Most of the respondents had poor knowledge. Gender, education level, family and personal history and ethnicity were found to be significant predictors of CRC knowledge. PMID:28950678

Quantitative analysis of factors that affect oil pipeline network accident based on Bayesian networks: A case study in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chao; Qin, Ting Xin; Huang, Shuai; Wu, Jian Song; Meng, Xin Yan

2018-06-01

Some factors can affect the consequences of oil pipeline accident and their effects should be analyzed to improve emergency preparation and emergency response. Although there are some qualitative analysis models of risk factors' effects, the quantitative analysis model still should be researched. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian network (BN) model of risk factors' effects analysis in an oil pipeline accident case that happened in China. The incident evolution diagram is built to identify the risk factors. And the BN model is built based on the deployment rule for factor nodes in BN and the expert knowledge by Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Then the probabilities of incident consequences and risk factors' effects can be calculated. The most likely consequences given by this model are consilient with the case. Meanwhile, the quantitative estimations of risk factors' effects may provide a theoretical basis to take optimal risk treatment measures for oil pipeline management, which can be used in emergency preparation and emergency response.

Construction of a model predicting the risk of tube feeding intolerance after gastrectomy for gastric cancer based on 225 cases from a single Chinese center

PubMed Central

Xiaoyong, Wu; Xuzhao, Li; Deliang, Yu; Pengfei, Yu; Zhenning, Hang; Bin, Bai; zhengyan, Li; Fangning, Pang; Shiqi, Wang; Qingchuan, Zhao

2017-01-01

Identifying patients at high risk of tube feeding intolerance (TFI) after gastric cancer surgery may prevent the occurrence of TFI; however, a predictive model is lacking. We therefore analyzed the incidence of TFI and its associated risk factors after gastric cancer surgery in 225 gastric cancer patients divided into without-TFI (n = 114) and with-TFI (n = 111) groups. A total of 49.3% of patients experienced TFI after gastric cancer. Multivariate analysis identified a history of functional constipation (FC), a preoperative American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score of III, a high pain score at 6-hour postoperation, and a high white blood cell (WBC) count on the first day after surgery as independent risk factors for TFI. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.756, with an optimal cut-off value of 0.5410. In order to identify patients at high risk of TFI after gastric cancer surgery, we constructed a predictive nomogram model based on the selected independent risk factors to indicate the probability of developing TFI. Use of our predictive nomogram model in screening, if a probability > 0.5410, indicated a high-risk patients would with a 70.1% likelihood of developing TFI. These high-risk individuals should take measures to prevent TFI before feeding with enteral nutrition. PMID:29245951

Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Risk Factors for Falls, Fear of Falling, and Falls Efficacy in a Cohort of Middle-Aged African Americans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Elena M.; Wolinsky, Fredric D.; Miller, J. Phillip; Wilson, Margaret-Mary G.; Malmstrom, Theodore K.; Miller, Douglas K.

2006-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to cross-sectionally and longitudinally identify risk factors for falls, fear of falling, and falls efficacy in late-middle-aged African Americans. Design and Methods: We performed in-home assessments on a probability sample of 998 African Americans and conducted two annual follow-up interviews. Multiple…

One-Year Incidence of Psychiatric Disorders and Associated Risk Factors among Adolescents in the Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Robert E.; Roberts, Catherine R.; Chan, Wenyaw

2009-01-01

Background: We have few data on incidence of psychiatric disorders among adolescents. This study examined first incidence of disorders among adolescents and baseline factors which increased or decreased risk of new onset cases a year later. Methods: Data were analyzed from Teen Health 2000 (TH2K), a probability sample of 4,175 youths 11-17 and…

Burden of high fracture probability worldwide: secular increases 2010-2040.

PubMed

Odén, A; McCloskey, E V; Kanis, J A; Harvey, N C; Johansson, H

2015-09-01

The number of individuals aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture worldwide in 2010 was estimated at 158 million and is set to double by 2040. The aim of this study was to quantify the number of individuals worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture in 2010 and 2040. A threshold of high fracture probability was set at the age-specific 10-year probability of a major fracture (clinical vertebral, forearm, humeral or hip fracture) which was equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI of 24 kg/m(2) and a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The prevalence of high risk was determined worldwide and by continent using all available country-specific FRAX models and applied the population demography for each country. Twenty-one million men and 137 million women had a fracture probability at or above the threshold in the world for the year 2010. The greatest number of men and women at high risk were from Asia (55 %). Worldwide, the number of high-risk individuals is expected to double over the next 40 years. We conclude that individuals with high probability of osteoporotic fractures comprise a very significant disease burden to society, particularly in Asia, and that this burden is set to increase markedly in the future. These analyses provide a platform for the evaluation of risk assessment and intervention strategies.

Insulin resistance, obesity, hypofibrinolysis, hyperandrogenism, and coronary heart disease risk factors in 25 pre-perimenarchal girls age < or =14 years, 13 with precocious puberty, 23 with a first-degree relative with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Glueck, Charles J; Morrison, John A; Wang, Ping

2008-10-01

Pre-peri-menarchal diagnosis of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is important, because intervention with metformin-diet may prevent progression to full blown PCOS. In 25 girls age < or =14 years with probable familial PCOS, 10 pre-, 15 post-menarchal, 13 with precocious puberty, 23 with a first-degree relative with PCOS, we hypothesized that reversible coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors, insulin resistance, clinical and biochemical hyperandrogenism, and hypofibrinolysis were already established. Fasting measures: insulin, glucose, total, LDL- (LDL-C), and HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides (TG), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), plasminogen activator inhibitor activity (PAI-Fx), total (T) and free testosterone (FT), androstenedione, and DHEAS. Clinical and/or biochemical hyperandrogenism was present in all 25 girls, with elevations of T or FT, or androstenedione in seven of ten pre-menarchal girls and in all 15 post-menarche. PAI-Fx was high in 28% of the 25 girls vs 6.5% in age-gender-race matched controls (p = 0.013). Categorized by race-age-specific distributions in 870 schoolgirls, the 25 girls with probable familial PCOS were more likely to have top decile body mass index (BMI), insulin, HOMA-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), SBP, DBP, and TG, and bottom decile HDL-C. By analysis of variance, adjusting for race, age and BMI, PCOS girls had higher FT and waist circumference than controls, but did not differ for SBP, DBP, HDL-C, or TG (p>0.05). Pre-peri-menarchal acquisition of centripetal obesity amplifies CHD risk factors and hypofibrinolysis in hyperandrogenemic girls with probable familial PCOS and precocious puberty. When schoolgirls become as obese as girls with probable familial PCOS, they acquire the same CHD risk factors, and differ only by lower free T and less centripetal obesity.

Epidemiology and risk factors of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Janoutová, Jana; Janácková, Petra; Serý, Omar; Zeman, Tomás; Ambroz, Petr; Kovalová, Martina; Varechová, Katerina; Hosák, Ladislav; Jirík, Vitezslav; Janout, Vladimír

2016-01-01

Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder that affects approximately one percent of the general population. The pathogenesis of schizophrenia is influenced by many risk factors, both environmental and genetic. The environmental factors include the date of birth, place of birth and seasonal effects, infectious diseases, complications during pregnancy and delivery, substance abuse and stress. At the present time, in addition to environmental factors, genetic factors are assumed to play a role in the development of the schizophrenia. The heritability of schizo- phrenia is up to 80%. If one parent suffers from the condition, the probability that it will be passed down to the offspring is 13%. If it is present in both parents, the risk is more than 20%. The opinions are varied as to the risk factors affecting the development of schizophrenia. Knowing these factors may greatly contribute to prevention of the condition.

Risk Factors and Predictors for Candidemia in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit Patients: Implications for Prevention

PubMed Central

Zaoutis, Theoklis E.; Prasad, Priya A.; Localio, A. Russell; Coffin, Susan E.; Bell, Louis M.; Walsh, Thomas J.; Gross, Robert

2013-01-01

Summary Few data exist on risk factors for candidemia in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients who are at high risk of mortality from infection. We conducted a population-based case-control study to determine risk factors and predictors for candidemia in the PICU. Background Candida species are the leading cause of invasive fungal infections in hospitalized children and are the third most common isolates recovered from pediatric healthcare-associated bloodstream infection in the US [1]. Few data exist on risk factors for candidemia in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients. Methods We conducted a population-based case-control study of PICU patients at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) from 1997-2004. Cases were identified using laboratory records, controls were selected from PICU rosters. Controls were matched to cases by incidence density sampling, adjusting for time at risk. Following conditional multivariate analysis, we performed weighted multivariate analysis to determine predicted probabilities for candidemia given certain risk factor combinations. Results We identified 101 cases of candidemia(incidence,3.5/1,000 PICU admissions). Factors independently associated with candidemia included presence of a central venous catheter(OR 30.4;CI,7.7,119.5), malignancy(OR 4.0;CI,1.23,13.1), use of vancomycin for >3 days in the prior two weeks(OR 6.2;CI,2.4,16), and receipt of agents with activity against anaerobic organisms for >3 days in the prior two weeks(OR 3.5;CI, 1.5,8.4). Predicted probability of various combinations of the factors above ranged from 10.7%-46%. The 30-day mortality rate was 44% in cases compared to 14% in controls (OR 4.22;CI,2.35,7.60). Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate independent risk factors and to determine a population of children in PICUs at high risk for developing candidemia. Future efforts should focus on validation of these risk factors identified in a different PICU population and development of interventions for prevention of candidemia in critically ill children. PMID:20636126

[Factor Characterization Associated with Suicidal Behavior in 8(th) Grade Adolescent Students in Three Schools from Bogotá (Colombia)].

PubMed

Pérez-Olmos, Isabel; Cruz, Doris Lorena Téllez; Traslaviña, Ángela Liliana Vélez; Ibáñez-Pinilla, Milcíades

2012-03-01

To establish the probability for suicide risk and/or mental disorders, together with related factors among high school students in 3 schools in Bogota. Cross sectional study of 309 adolescents. The average age was 13.83 ± 0.9, female dominance (58.6%) and a 3(rd) socioeconomic stratum (68.3%). The suicidal risk behavioral probability and/or mental symptoms was 47.6%, 26.5% exhibited some suicide manifestations, 14.23% had experienced suicidal ideas in the last 3 months, 3.55% had had suicide attempts at least once in life, and 8.73% had suicidal ideas in the last 3 months with suicide attempts. The risk of suicidal behavior and/or mental disorders was explained jointly by depression (OR=27.9, 95% CI: 3.5-223. 1), low self-esteem (OR=11.8, 95% CI: 2.5-56.5), severe family dysfunction (OR=3.4, 95%CI 1.2-9.7), being female (OR=2.1, 95% CI: 1.2-3.8) and being 15 or older (OR=1.9, 95% CI: 0.967-3.9). Psychological abuse followed by physical mistreatment was associated with suicidal behavior and /or mental illness while good family relationships were associated to lower probability. Depression, low self-esteem, severe family dysfunction, female gender, older age (≥15) and domestic violence are risk factors associated with suicide and/or mental disorders in adolescents; good family relationships are associated with lower risk. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Long-term risk of malignancy among patients treated with immunosuppressive agents for ocular inflammation: A critical assessment of the evidence

PubMed Central

Kempen, John H.; Gangaputra, Sapna; Daniel, Ebenezer; Levy-Clarke, Grace A.; Nussenblatt, Robert B.; Rosenbaum, James T.; Suhler, Eric B.; Thorne, Jennifer E.; Foster, C. Stephen; Jabs, Douglas A.; Helzlsouer, Kathy J.

2008-01-01

Purpose To critically assess potentially carcinogenic effects of immunosuppressive therapy in the ocular inflammation setting Design Focused evidence assessment. Methods Relevant publications were identified by MEDLINE and EMBASE queries and reference list searches. Results Extrapolation from transplant, rheumatology, skin disease and inflammatory bowel disease cohorts to the ocular inflammation setting suggest that: 1) alkylating agents increase hematologic malignancy risk and cyclophosphamide increases bladder cancer risk, but less so with ≤18 months’ duration of therapy and hydration respectively; 2) calcineurin inhibitors and azathioprine probably do not increase total cancer risk to a detectable degree, except perhaps some other risk factors (uncommon in ocular inflammation patients) might interact with the former to raise risk; 3) Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) inhibitors may accelerate diagnosis of cancer in the first 6–12 months, but probably do not increase long-term cancer risk; and 4) changes in risk with methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil, and daclizumab appear negligible although non-transplant data are limited for the latter agents. Immunosuppression in general may increase skin cancer risk in a sun-exposure dependent manner. Conclusion Use of alkylating agents for a limited duration seems justifiable for severe, vision-threatening disease, but otherwise cancer risk may be a relevant constraint on use of this approach. Antimetabolites, daclizumab, TNF-inhibitors, and calcineurin inhibitors probably do not increase cancer risk to a degree that outweighs the expected benefits of therapy. Monitoring for skin cancer may be useful for highly sun-exposed patients. Data from ocular inflammation patients are needed to confirm the conclusions made in this analysis by extrapolation. PMID:18579112

A Comparison of Birth Outcomes Among Black, Hispanic, and Black Hispanic Women

PubMed Central

BeLue, Rhonda; Hillemeier, Marianne M.

2015-01-01

Background While non-Hispanic Black populations tend to be disproportionately affected by adverse reproductive outcomes, Hispanic populations tend to demonstrate healthier birth outcomes, regardless of socioeconomic background. Little is known about birth outcomes for women who are both Black and Hispanic. We examined whether birth outcomes and risk factors for women who are both Black and Hispanic most closely resemble those of women who are only Black or Hispanic and also compared these outcomes to those for Whites. Methods Using the 2013 US natality files, we examined 2,970,315 singleton births to Black Hispanic, Hispanic, Black, and White mothers. We used logistic regression to calculate predicted probabilities of low birth weight (LBW), preterm birth (PTB), or small for gestational age (SGA). Race-stratified regression analysis was used to identify the factors that significantly predicted risk for each outcome for each racial/ethnic group. Results Black mothers had the highest prevalence and predicted probabilities of experiencing all three outcomes. Black Hispanic mothers were less likely than Black mothers and more likely than Hispanic mothers to experience each of the adverse outcomes. We also found support for racial variation in risk and protective factors for mothers in the different groups. Factors like age and education inconsistently predicted risk of experiencing the birth outcomes for all groups. Overall, Black Hispanic mothers had birth outcomes and risk factor profiles like Hispanic mothers, although they had sociodemographic characteristics and health behaviors like Black mothers. Conclusions Patterning of birth outcomes among Black Hispanic women suggest an intersection of risk and protective factors associated with their respective racial and ethnic identities. Additional information about sociodemographic context is needed to develop a more complete picture of how factors related to race and ethnic group membership influence Black Hispanic women’s birth outcomes. PMID:26561541

Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk

PubMed Central

Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

2015-01-01

Background Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. Methods The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as ‘dyslexic’ or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Results Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Conclusions Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. PMID:25832320

Cumulative effects of mothers' risk and promotive factors on daughters' disruptive behavior.

PubMed

van der Molen, Elsa; Hipwell, Alison E; Vermeiren, Robert; Loeber, Rolf

2012-07-01

Little is known about the ways in which the accumulation of maternal factors increases or reduces risk for girls' disruptive behavior during preadolescence. In the current study, maternal risk and promotive factors and the severity of girls' disruptive behavior were assessed annually among girls' ages 7-12 in an urban community sample (N = 2043). Maternal risk and promotive factors were operative at different time points in girls' development. Maternal warmth explained variance in girls' disruptive behavior, even after controlling for maternal risk factors and relevant child and neighborhood factors. In addition, findings supported the cumulative hypothesis that the number of risk factors increased the chance on girls' disruptive behavior disorder (DBD), while the number of promotive factors decreased this probability. Daughters of mothers with a history of Conduct Disorder (CD) were exposed to more risk factors and fewer promotive factors compared to daughters of mothers without prior CD. The identification of malleable maternal factors that can serve as targets for intervention has important implications for intergenerational intervention. Cumulative effects show that the focus of prevention efforts should not be on single factors, but on multiple factors associated with girls' disruptive behavior.

Cumulative Effects of Mothers’ Risk and Promotive Factors on Daughters’ Disruptive Behavior

PubMed Central

Hipwell, Alison E.; Vermeiren, Robert; Loeber, Rolf

2012-01-01

Little is known about the ways in which the accumulation of maternal factors increases or reduces risk for girls’ disruptive behavior during preadolescence. In the current study, maternal risk and promotive factors and the severity of girls’ disruptive behavior were assessed annually among girls’ ages 7–12 in an urban community sample (N=2043). Maternal risk and promotive factors were operative at different time points in girls’ development. Maternal warmth explained variance in girls’ disruptive behavior, even after controlling for maternal risk factors and relevant child and neighborhood factors. In addition, findings supported the cumulative hypothesis that the number of risk factors increased the chance on girls’ disruptive behavior disorder (DBD), while the number of promotive factors decreased this probability. Daughters of mothers with a history of Conduct Disorder (CD) were exposed to more risk factors and fewer promotive factors compared to daughters of mothers without prior CD. The identification of malleable maternal factors that can serve as targets for intervention has important implications for intergenerational intervention. Cumulative effects show that the focus of prevention efforts should not be on single factors, but on multiple factors associated with girls’ disruptive behavior. PMID:22127641

Applicability and accuracy of pretest probability calculations implemented in the NICE clinical guideline for decision making about imaging in patients with chest pain of recent onset.

PubMed

Roehle, Robert; Wieske, Viktoria; Schuetz, Georg M; Gueret, Pascal; Andreini, Daniele; Meijboom, Willem Bob; Pontone, Gianluca; Garcia, Mario; Alkadhi, Hatem; Honoris, Lily; Hausleiter, Jörg; Bettencourt, Nuno; Zimmermann, Elke; Leschka, Sebastian; Gerber, Bernhard; Rochitte, Carlos; Schoepf, U Joseph; Shabestari, Abbas Arjmand; Nørgaard, Bjarne; Sato, Akira; Knuuti, Juhani; Meijs, Matthijs F L; Brodoefel, Harald; Jenkins, Shona M M; Øvrehus, Kristian Altern; Diederichsen, Axel Cosmus Pyndt; Hamdan, Ashraf; Halvorsen, Bjørn Arild; Mendoza Rodriguez, Vladimir; Wan, Yung Liang; Rixe, Johannes; Sheikh, Mehraj; Langer, Christoph; Ghostine, Said; Martuscelli, Eugenio; Niinuma, Hiroyuki; Scholte, Arthur; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Ulimoen, Geir; Zhang, Zhaoqi; Mickley, Hans; Nieman, Koen; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Buechel, Ronny Ralf; Herzog, Bernhard A; Clouse, Melvin; Halon, David A; Leipsic, Jonathan; Bush, David; Jakamy, Reda; Sun, Kai; Yang, Lin; Johnson, Thorsten; Laissy, Jean-Pierre; Marcus, Roy; Muraglia, Simone; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Chow, Benjamin; Paul, Narinder; Maintz, David; Hoe, John; de Roos, Albert; Haase, Robert; Laule, Michael; Schlattmann, Peter; Dewey, Marc

2018-03-19

To analyse the implementation, applicability and accuracy of the pretest probability calculation provided by NICE clinical guideline 95 for decision making about imaging in patients with chest pain of recent onset. The definitions for pretest probability calculation in the original Duke clinical score and the NICE guideline were compared. We also calculated the agreement and disagreement in pretest probability and the resulting imaging and management groups based on individual patient data from the Collaborative Meta-Analysis of Cardiac CT (CoMe-CCT). 4,673 individual patient data from the CoMe-CCT Consortium were analysed. Major differences in definitions in the Duke clinical score and NICE guideline were found for the predictors age and number of risk factors. Pretest probability calculation using guideline criteria was only possible for 30.8 % (1,439/4,673) of patients despite availability of all required data due to ambiguity in guideline definitions for risk factors and age groups. Agreement regarding patient management groups was found in only 70 % (366/523) of patients in whom pretest probability calculation was possible according to both models. Our results suggest that pretest probability calculation for clinical decision making about cardiac imaging as implemented in the NICE clinical guideline for patients has relevant limitations. • Duke clinical score is not implemented correctly in NICE guideline 95. • Pretest probability assessment in NICE guideline 95 is impossible for most patients. • Improved clinical decision making requires accurate pretest probability calculation. • These refinements are essential for appropriate use of cardiac CT.

Probability of introducing foot and mouth disease into the United States via live animal importation.

PubMed

Miller, G Y; Ming, J; Williams, I; Gorvett, R

2012-12-01

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) continues to be a disease of major concern for the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and livestock industries. Foot and mouth disease virus is a high-consequence pathogen for the United States (USA). Live animal trade is a major risk factor for introduction of FMD into a country. This research estimates the probability of FMD being introduced into the USA via the legal importation of livestock. This probability is calculated by considering the potential introduction of FMD from each country from which the USA imports live animals. The total probability of introduction into the USA of FMD from imported livestock is estimated to be 0.415% per year, which is equivalent to one introduction every 241 years. In addition, to provide a basis for evaluating the significance of risk management techniques and expenditures, the sensitivity of the above result to changes in various risk parameter assumptions is determined.

48 CFR 1615.404-70 - Profit analysis factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... indifference to cost control will generally result in a negative weight. (2) Contract cost risk. In assessing..., group size, enrollment demographics and fluctuation, and the probability of conversion and adverse... “loss carry forward basis” of experience-rated group insurance practices, which mitigates contract risk...

48 CFR 1615.404-70 - Profit analysis factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... indifference to cost control will generally result in a negative weight. (2) Contract cost risk. In assessing..., group size, enrollment demographics and fluctuation, and the probability of conversion and adverse... “loss carry forward basis” of experience-rated group insurance practices, which mitigates contract risk...

48 CFR 1615.404-70 - Profit analysis factors.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... indifference to cost control will generally result in a negative weight. (2) Contract cost risk. In assessing..., group size, enrollment demographics and fluctuation, and the probability of conversion and adverse... “loss carry forward basis” of experience-rated group insurance practices, which mitigates contract risk...

Risk forewarning model for rice grain Cd pollution based on Bayes theory.

PubMed

Wu, Bo; Guo, Shuhai; Zhang, Lingyan; Li, Fengmei

2018-03-15

Cadmium (Cd) pollution of rice grain caused by Cd-contaminated soils is a common problem in southwest and central south China. In this study, utilizing the advantages of the Bayes classification statistical method, we established a risk forewarning model for rice grain Cd pollution, and put forward two parameters (the prior probability factor and data variability factor). The sensitivity analysis of the model parameters illustrated that sample size and standard deviation influenced the accuracy and applicable range of the model. The accuracy of the model was improved by the self-renewal of the model through adding the posterior data into the priori data. Furthermore, this method can be used to predict the risk probability of rice grain Cd pollution under similar soil environment, tillage and rice varietal conditions. The Bayes approach thus represents a feasible method for risk forewarning of heavy metals pollution of agricultural products caused by contaminated soils. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Astronaut Post Flight Bone Fracture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewandowski, Beth; Myers, Jerry; Licata, Angelo

2015-01-01

Introduction: Space flight potentially reduces the loading that bone can resist before fracture. This reduction in bone integrity may result from a combination of factors, the most common reported as reduction in astronaut BMD. Although evaluating the condition of bones continues to be a critical aspect of understanding space flight fracture risk, defining the loading regime, whether on earth, in microgravity, or in reduced gravity on a planetary surface, remains a significant component of estimating the fracture risks to astronauts. This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) to understanding pre-, post, and in mission astronaut bone fracture risk. The overview includes an assessment of contributing factors utilized in the BFxRM and illustrates how new information, such as biomechanics of space suit design or better understanding of post flight activities may influence astronaut fracture risk. Opportunities for the bone mineral research community to contribute to future model development are also discussed. Methods: To investigate the conditions in which spaceflight induced changes to bone plays a critical role in post-flight fracture probability, we implement a modified version of the NASA Bone Fracture Risk Model (BFxRM). Modifications included incorporation of variations in physiological characteristics, post-flight recovery rate, and variations in lateral fall conditions within the probabilistic simulation parameter space. The modeled fracture probability estimates for different loading scenarios at preflight and at 0 and 365 days post-flight time periods are compared. Results: For simple lateral side falls, mean post-flight fracture probability is elevated over mean preflight fracture probability due to spaceflight induced BMD loss and is not fully recovered at 365 days post-flight. In the case of more energetic falls, such as from elevated heights or with the addition of lateral movement, the contribution of space flight quality changes is much less clear, indicating more granular assessments, such as Finite Element modeling, may be needed to further assess the risks in these scenarios.

The development and appraisal of a tool designed to find patients harmed by falsely labelled, falsified (counterfeit) medicines.

PubMed

Anđelković, Marija; Björnsson, Einar; De Bono, Virgilio; Dikić, Nenad; Devue, Katleen; Ferlin, Daniel; Hanževački, Miroslav; Jónsdóttir, Freyja; Shakaryan, Mkrtich; Walser, Sabine

2017-06-20

Falsely labelled, falsified (counterfeit) medicines (FFCm's) are produced or distributed illegally and can harm patients. Although the occurrence of FFCm's is increasing in Europe, harm is rarely reported. The European Directorate for the Quality of Medicines & Health-Care (EDQM) has therefore coordinated the development and validation of a screening tool. The tool consists of a questionnaire referring to a watch-list of FFCm's identified in Europe, including symptoms of their use and individual risk factors, and a scoring form. To refine the questionnaire and reference method, a pilot-study was performed in 105 self-reported users of watch-list medicines. Subsequently, the tool was validated under "real-life conditions" in 371 patients in 5 ambulatory and in-patient care sites ("sub-studies"). The physicians participating in the study scored the patients and classified their risk of harm as "unlikely" or "probable" (cut-off level: presence of ≥2 of 5 risk factors). They assessed all medical records retrospectively (independent reference method) to validate the risk classification and documented their perception of the tool's value. In 3 ambulatory care sites (180 patients), the tool correctly classified 5 patients as harmed by FFCm's. The positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+/LR-) and the discrimination power were calculated for two cut-off levels: a) 1 site (50 patients): presence of two risk factors (at 10% estimated health care system contamination with FFCm's): LR + 4.9/LR-0, post-test probability: 35%; b) 2 sites (130 patients): presence of three risk factors (at 5% estimated prevalence of use of non-prescribed medicines (FFCm's) by certain risk groups): LR + 9.7/LR-0, post-test probability: 33%. In 2 in-patient care sites (191 patients), no patient was confirmed as harmed by FFCm's. The physicians perceived the tool as valuable for finding harm, and as an information source regarding risk factors. This "decision aid" is a systematic tool which helps find in medical practice patients harmed by FFCm's. This study supports its value in ambulatory care in regions with health care system contamination and in certain risk groups. The establishment of systematic communication between authorities and the medical community concerning FFCm's, current patterns of use and case reports may sustain positive public health impacts.

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death among endometrial cancer patients.

PubMed

Ward, Kristy K; Shah, Nina R; Saenz, Cheryl C; McHale, Michael T; Alvarez, Edwin A; Plaxe, Steven C

2012-08-01

To evaluate the causes of death among women with endometrial cancer. SEER registries from 1973-1988 were queried to perform a retrospective cohort study of women with invasive epithelial endometrial cancer. Causes of death were compared according to grade and stage. 33,232 women with incident cases of endometrial cancer had died at the time of last follow up. Overall, women were most likely to die from cardiovascular disease (35.9%, 95% CI 35.3-36.3%), followed by other causes, other malignancies, and endometrial cancer. Women with low grade localized cancer were most likely to die of cardiovascular disease, while women with high grade advanced cancer were least likely to die of cardiovascular disease and most likely to die of endometrial cancer. For the entire population, risk of death from cardiovascular causes surpasses the risk of death from endometrial cancer 5 years after diagnosis. Higher risk of cardiac death among endometrial cancer patients likely reflects the high probability of curative cancer treatment and the prevalence of cardiac disease and risk factors. As the probability of dying of endometrial cancer decreases with time, the probability of dying of cardiovascular disease increases. Interventions and investigations aimed at addressing risk factors for cardiovascular disease may have the greatest potential to improve survival for women diagnosed with endometrial cancer and should feature prominently in treatment and survivorship plans. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Earth reencounter probabilities for aborted space disposal of hazardous nuclear waste

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedlander, A. L.; Feingold, H.

1977-01-01

A quantitative assessment is made of the long-term risk of earth reencounter and reentry associated with aborted disposal of hazardous material in the space environment. Numerical results are presented for 10 candidate disposal options covering a broad spectrum of disposal destinations and deployment propulsion systems. Based on representative models of system failure, the probability that a single payload will return and collide with earth within a period of 250,000 years is found to lie in the range .0002-.006. Proportionately smaller risk attaches to shorter time intervals. Risk-critical factors related to trajectory geometry and system reliability are identified as possible mechanisms of hazard reduction.

Validation of Air Force Hazard Assessment Rating Methodology.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-01

the product of the probability and magnitude of each undesirable possible outcome, integrated or summed over all undesirable outcomes [28:5]. Risk...is difficult to keep risk management factors out of the risk assessment process (27:35). Site Contamination. Since site contamination is a major part...same standards for risks from new products and industries as it does for old products and industries. The risks of new products are screened very

Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network.

PubMed

Zarei, Esmaeil; Azadeh, Ali; Khakzad, Nima; Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-01-05

Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for the severity of injury incurred in crashes involving on-duty police cars.

PubMed

Chu, Hsing-Chung

2016-07-03

This article explores the risk factors associated with police cars on routine patrol and/or on an emergency run and their effects on the severity of injuries in crashes. The binary probit model is used to examine the effects of important factors on the risk of injuries sustained in crashes involving on-duty police cars. Several factors significantly increase the probability of crashes that cause severe injuries. Among those causes are police officers who drive at excessive speeds, traffic violations during emergency responses or pursuits, and driving during the evening (6 to 12 p.m.) or in rainy weather. Findings also indicate some potential issues associated with an increase in the probability of crashes that cause injuries. Younger police drivers were found to be more likely to be involved in crashes causing injuries than middle-aged drivers were. Distracted driving by on-duty police officers as well as civilian drivers who did not pull over to let a police car pass in emergency situations also caused serious crashes. Police cars are exempted from certain traffic laws under emergency circumstances. However, to reduce the probability of being involved in a crash resulting in severe injuries, officers are still obligated to drive safely and follow safety procedures when responding to emergencies or pursuing a car. Enhancement of training techniques for emergency situations or driving in pursuit of an offender and following the safety procedures are essential for safety in driving during an emergency run by police.

[Hygienic evaluation of risk factors on powder metallurgy production].

PubMed

2011-01-01

Complex hygienic, clinical, sociologic and epidemiologic studies revealed reliable relationship between work conditions and arterial hypertension, locomotory system disorders, monocytosis in powder metallurgy production workers. Findings are more probable cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, digestive tract diseases due to influence of lifestyle factors.

Combined Endoscopic/Sonographic-Based Risk Matrix Model for Predicting One-Year Risk of Surgery: A Prospective Observational Study of a Tertiary Center Severe/Refractory Crohn's Disease Cohort.

PubMed

Rispo, Antonio; Imperatore, Nicola; Testa, Anna; Bucci, Luigi; Luglio, Gaetano; De Palma, Giovanni Domenico; Rea, Matilde; Nardone, Olga Maria; Caporaso, Nicola; Castiglione, Fabiana

2018-03-08

In the management of Crohn's Disease (CD) patients, having a simple score combining clinical, endoscopic and imaging features to predict the risk of surgery could help to tailor treatment more effectively. AIMS: to prospectively evaluate the one-year risk factors for surgery in refractory/severe CD and to generate a risk matrix for predicting the probability of surgery at one year. CD patients needing a disease re-assessment at our tertiary IBD centre underwent clinical, laboratory, endoscopy and bowel sonography (BS) examinations within one week. The optimal cut-off values in predicting surgery were identified using ROC curves for Simple Endoscopic Score for CD (SES-CD), bowel wall thickness (BWT) at BS, and small bowel CD extension at BS. Binary logistic regression and Cox's regression were then carried out. Finally, the probabilities of surgery were calculated for selected baseline levels of covariates and results were arranged in a prediction matrix. Of 100 CD patients, 30 underwent surgery within one year. SES-CD©9 (OR 15.3; p<0.001), BWT©7 mm (OR 15.8; p<0.001), small bowel CD extension at BS©33 cm (OR 8.23; p<0.001) and stricturing/penetrating behavior (OR 4.3; p<0.001) were the only independent factors predictive of surgery at one-year based on binary logistic and Cox's regressions. Our matrix model combined these risk factors and the probability of surgery ranged from 0.48% to 87.5% (sixteen combinations). Our risk matrix combining clinical, endoscopic and ultrasonographic findings can accurately predict the one-year risk of surgery in patients with severe/refractory CD requiring a disease re-evaluation. This tool could be of value in clinical practice, serving as the basis for a tailored management of CD patients.

The development and implementation of stroke risk prediction model in National Health Insurance Service's personal health record.

PubMed

Lee, Jae-Woo; Lim, Hyun-Sun; Kim, Dong-Wook; Shin, Soon-Ae; Kim, Jinkwon; Yoo, Bora; Cho, Kyung-Hee

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study was to build a 10-year stroke prediction model and categorize a probability of stroke using the Korean national health examination data. Then it intended to develop the algorithm to provide a personalized warning on the basis of each user's level of stroke risk and a lifestyle correction message about the stroke risk factors. Subject to national health examinees in 2002-2003, the stroke prediction model identified when stroke was first diagnosed by following-up the cohort until 2013 and estimated a 10-year probability of stroke. It sorted the user's individual probability of stroke into five categories - normal, slightly high, high, risky, very risky, according to the five ranges of average probability of stroke in comparison to total population - less than 50 percentile, 50-70, 70-90, 90-99.9, more than 99.9 percentile, and constructed the personalized warning and lifestyle correction messages by each category. Risk factors in stroke risk model include the age, BMI, cholesterol, hypertension, diabetes, smoking status and intensity, physical activity, alcohol drinking, past history (hypertension, coronary heart disease) and family history (stroke, coronary heart disease). The AUC values of stroke risk prediction model from the external validation data set were 0.83 in men and 0.82 in women, which showed a high predictive power. The probability of stroke within 10 years for men in normal group (less than 50 percentile) was less than 3.92% and those in very risky group (top 0.01 percentile) was 66.2% and over. The women's probability of stroke within 10 years was less than 3.77% in normal group (less than 50 percentile) and 55.24% and over in very risky group. This study developed the stroke risk prediction model and the personalized warning and the lifestyle correction message based on the national health examination data and uploaded them to the personal health record service called My Health Bank in the health information website - Health iN. By doing so, it urged medical users to strengthen the motivation of health management and induced changes in their health behaviors. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

IDENTIFYING PROBABLE DIABETES MELLITUS AMONG HISPANICS/LATINOS FROM FOUR U.S. CITIES: FINDINGS FROM THE HISPANIC COMMUNITY HEALTH STUDY/STUDY OF LATINOS.

PubMed

Avilés-Santa, M Larissa; Schneiderman, Neil; Savage, Peter J; Kaplan, Robert C; Teng, Yanping; Pérez, Cynthia M; Suárez, Erick L; Cai, Jianwen; Giachello, Aida L; Talavera, Gregory A; Cowie, Catherine C

2016-10-01

The aim of this study was to compare the ability of American Diabetes Association (ADA) diagnostic criteria to identify U.S. Hispanics/Latinos from diverse heritage groups with probable diabetes mellitus and assess cardiovascular risk factor correlates of those criteria. Cross-sectional analysis of data from 15,507 adults from 6 Hispanic/Latino heritage groups, enrolled in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos. The prevalence of probable diabetes mellitus was estimated using individual or combinations of ADA-defined cut points. The sensitivity and specificity of these criteria at identifying diabetes mellitus from ADA-defined prediabetes and normoglycemia were evaluated. Prevalence ratios of hypertension, abnormal lipids, and elevated urinary albumin-creatinine ratio for unrecognized diabetes mellitus-versus prediabetes and normoglycemia-were calculated. Among Hispanics/Latinos (mean age, 43 years) with diabetes mellitus, 39.4% met laboratory test criteria for probable diabetes, and the prevalence varied by heritage group. Using the oral glucose tolerance test as the gold standard, the sensitivity of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c-alone or in combination-was low (18, 23, and 33%, respectively) at identifying probable diabetes mellitus. Individuals who met any criterion for probable diabetes mellitus had significantly higher (P<.05) prevalence of most cardiovascular risk factors than those with normoglycemia or prediabetes, and this association was not modified by Hispanic/Latino heritage group. FPG and hemoglobin A1c are not sensitive (but are highly specific) at detecting probable diabetes mellitus among Hispanics/Latinos, independent of heritage group. Assessing cardiovascular risk factors at diagnosis might prompt multitarget interventions and reduce health complications in this young population. 2hPG = 2-hour post-glucose load plasma glucose ADA = American Diabetes Association BMI = body mass index CV = cardiovascular FPG = fasting plasma glucose HbA1c = hemoglobin A1c HCHS/SOL = Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos HDL-C = high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol NGT = normal glucose tolerance NHANES = National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey OGTT = oral glucose tolerance test TG = triglyceride UACR = urine albumin-creatinine ratio.

Associations between PTSD and intimate partner and non-partner aggression among substance using veterans in specialty mental health.

PubMed

Buchholz, Katherine R; Bohnert, Kipling M; Sripada, Rebecca K; Rauch, Sheila A M; Epstein-Ngo, Quyen M; Chermack, Stephen T

2017-01-01

Risk factors of violence perpetration in veterans include substance use and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD); however, it is unknown whether these factors are associated with greater risk for partner or non-partner violence. This study investigated the associations between probable PTSD, heavy drinking, marijuana use, cocaine use, and partner and non-partner violence perpetration. Self-report questionnaires assessing past-year partner and non-partner aggression (CTS2) as well as past-month substance use (SAOM), probable PTSD (PCL-C), and probable depression (PHQ-9) were administered to 810 substance using veterans entering VA mental health treatment. In bivariate analyses, probable PTSD in substance using veterans was associated with violence perpetration (partner physical, χ 2 =11.46, p=0.001, φ=0.12; non-partner physical, χ 2 =50.64, p<0.001, φ=0.25; partner injury, χ 2 =6.41, p=0.011, φ=0.09; non-partner injury, χ 2 =42.71, p<0.001, φ=0.23). In multiple logistic regression analyses that adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, probable PTSD was independently associated with non-partner physical (odds ratio [OR], 2.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97-4.05) and injury aggression (OR, 3.96; CI, 2.56-6.13). Cocaine and heavy drinking were independently associated with non-partner physical and injury aggression and non-partner injury aggression respectively. The results provide evidence that probable PTSD, heavy drinking, and cocaine use are associated with increased risk of non-partner violence perpetration in substance using veterans. These results underscore the importance of screening for PTSD symptoms and violence perpetration towards non-partners in substance using veterans presenting for treatment. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

[Chronic pulmonary heart disease and its risk factors among a worker population in Teheran].

PubMed

Daneshpajouh, M; Bahrami, F; Chafii, A; Kavoussi, N; Pirouzmande, B

1976-01-01

Because of the high frequency of chronic cor pulmonale in workers admitted to the cardiology department of the Khazaneh Hospital in Teheran, we studied the clinical aspect and the risk factors of this disease in 66 male patients. The average age of patients was 56.1 years and they often had a long history of bronchitis isolated or associated with emphysema. The ECG analysis showed that most abnormalities were localized on the QRST wave. Tobacco and a polluted working environment were the factors most frequently met in our patients. The opium habit probably acted as a risk factor for chronic bronchopneumopathy, but further studies are necessary to ascertain the fact.

A post-crisis assessment of retirement income adequacy for Baby Boomers and Gen Xers.

PubMed

VanDerhei, Jack

2011-02-01

DETERMINING THOSE "AT RISK" OF INSUFFICIENT RETIREMENT INCOME: The analysis in this paper was designed to answer two questions: 1) What percentage of U.S. households became "at risk" of insufficient retirement income as a result of the financial market and real estate crisis in 2008 and 2009? 2) Of those who are at risk, what additional savings do they need to make each year until retirement age to make up for their losses from the crisis? The results are from the 2010 EBRI Retirement Security Projection Model by the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Range at risk: The percentage of households that would not have been "at risk" without the 2008-2009 crisis but that ended up "at risk" varies from a low of 3.8 percent to a high of 14.3 percent. 50-50 chance of adequacy: Looking at all Early Boomer households that would need to save an additional amount (over and above the savings already factored into the baseline model), the median percentage of additional compensation for these households desiring a 50 percent probability of retirement income adequacy would be 3.0 percent of compensation each year until retirement age to account for the financial and housing market crisis in 2008 and 2009. 90 percent chance of adequacy: Looking at all Early Boomer households that would need to save an additional amount (over and above the savings already factored into the baseline model), the median percentage of additional compensation for these households desiring a 90 percent probability of retirement income adequacy would be 4.3 percent of compensation. Range of adequacy: Looking only at Early Boomer households that would need to save an additional amount (over and above the savings already factored into the baseline model), that had account balances in defined contribution plans and IRAs as well as exposure to the real estate crisis in 2008 and 2009 shows a median percentage for of 5.6 percent for a 50 percent probability and 6.7 percent for a 90 percent probability of retirement income adequacy.

Risk and protective factors of dissocial behavior in a probability sample.

PubMed

Moral de la Rubia, José; Ortiz Morales, Humberto

2012-07-01

The aims of this study were to know risk and protective factors for dissocial behavior keeping in mind that the self-report of dissocial behavior is biased by the impression management. A probability sample of adolescents that lived in two neighborhoods with high indexes of gangs and offenses (112 male and 86 women) was collected. The 27-item Dissocial Behavior Scale (ECODI27; Pacheco & Moral, 2010), Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding, version 6 (BIDR-6; Paulhus, 1991), Sensation Seeking Scale, form V (SSS-V; Zuckerman, Eysenck, & Eysenck, 1978), Parent-Adolescent Communication Scale (PACS; Barnes & Olson, 1982), 30-item Rathus Assertiveness Schedule (RAS; Rathus, 1973), Interpersonal Reactivity Index (IRI; Davis, 1983) and a social relationship questionnaire (SRQ) were applied. Binary logistic regression was used for the data analysis. A third of the participants showed dissocial behavior. Belonging to a gang in the school (schooled adolescents) or to a gang out of school and job (total sample) and desinhibition were risk factors; being woman, perspective taking and open communication with the father were protective factors. School-leaving was a differential aspect. We insisted on the need of intervention on these variables.

Risk factors and predictors for candidemia in pediatric intensive care unit patients: implications for prevention.

PubMed

Zaoutis, Theoklis E; Prasad, Priya A; Localio, A Russell; Coffin, Susan E; Bell, Louis M; Walsh, Thomas J; Gross, Robert

2010-09-01

Candida species are the leading cause of invasive fungal infections in hospitalized children and are the third most common isolates recovered from patients with healthcare-associated bloodstream infection in the United States. Few data exist on risk factors for candidemia in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients. We conducted a population-based case-control study of PICU patients at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia during the period from 1997 through 2004. Case patients were identified using laboratory records, and control patients were selected from PICU rosters. Control patients were matched to case patients by incidence density sampling, adjusting for time at risk. Following conditional multivariate analysis, we performed weighted multivariate analysis to determine predicted probabilities for candidemia given certain risk factor combinations. We identified 101 case patients with candidemia (incidence, 3.5 cases per 1000 PICU admissions). Factors independently associated with candidemia included presence of a central venous catheter (odds ratio [OR], 30.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.7-119.5), malignancy (OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.23-13.1), use of vancomycin for >3 days in the prior 2 weeks (OR, 6.2; 95% CI, 2.4-16), and receipt of agents with activity against anaerobic organisms for >3 days in the prior 2 weeks (OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.5-8.4). Predicted probability of having various combinations of the aforementioned factors ranged from 10.7% to 46%. The 30-day mortality rate was 44% among case patients and 14% among control patients (OR, 4.22; 95% CI, 2.35-7.60). To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate independent risk factors and to determine a population of children in PICUs at high risk for developing candidemia. Future efforts should focus on validation of these risk factors identified in a different PICU population and development of interventions for prevention of candidemia in critically ill children.

Real benefit of a protective factor against dementia: Importance of controlling for death. Example of sport practice.

PubMed

Grasset, Leslie; Joly, Pierre; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène; Letenneur, Luc; Wittwer, Jérôme; Amieva, Hélène; Helmer, Catherine; Dartigues, Jean François

2017-01-01

To analyse the impact of a risk factor on several epidemiological indicators of death and dementia; the example of sport practice is presented. A population of 3670 non-demented subjects living at home and aged 65 and older from the PAQUID study were followed for 22 years. Sport practice was documented at baseline. Dementia (according to DSM-III-R criteria) and death were assessed at each visit. Analyses were performed with an Illness-Death model, providing results on the risks of dementia and death, probabilities and life expectancies. A total of 743 subjects (20.2%) participated in regular sport practice. During the follow-up, the proportion of death was lower in the elderly people practicing sport (EPPS), whereas the proportion of incident dementia cases was the same. The adjusted model showed a decreased risk of dementia (HR = 0.84 (0.72-1.00)) and of death for non-demented subjects (HR = 0.61 (0.51-0.71)) for EPPS but a similar risk of death with dementia in both sport groups. The probability of remaining alive without dementia was higher in EPPS, whereas the probability of dying was lower. The mean lifetime without dementia was 3 years higher for the EPPS, but the mean lifetime with dementia was the same. A preventive measure on a protective factor that is more effective for preventing death than dementia could lead to an increased lifetime without dementia; however, the number of demented cases may remain unchanged, even if the risk of developing dementia is reduced. This dynamic is important to forecast the need for health care and social services for the elderly.

Oestrogen exposure and breast cancer risk

PubMed Central

Travis, Ruth C; Key, Timothy J

2003-01-01

Epidemiological and experimental evidence implicates oestrogens in the aetiology of breast cancer. Most established risk factors for breast cancer in humans probably act through hormone-related pathways, and increased concentrations of circulating oestrogens have been found to be strongly associated with increased risk for breast cancer in postmenopausal women. This article explores the evidence for the hypothesis that oestrogen exposure is a major determinant of risk for breast cancer. We review recent data on oestrogens and breast cancer risk, consider oestrogen-related risk factors and examine possible mechanisms that might account for the effects of oestrogen. Finally, we discuss how these advances might influence strategies for reducing the incidence of breast cancer. PMID:12927032

Variation in Red Blood Cell Transfusion Practices During Cardiac Operations Among Centers in Maryland: Results From a State Quality-Improvement Collaborative.

PubMed

Magruder, J Trent; Blasco-Colmenares, Elena; Crawford, Todd; Alejo, Diane; Conte, John V; Salenger, Rawn; Fonner, Clifford E; Kwon, Christopher C; Bobbitt, Jennifer; Brown, James M; Nelson, Mark G; Horvath, Keith A; Whitman, Glenn R

2017-01-01

Variation in red blood cell (RBC) transfusion practices exists at cardiac surgery centers across the nation. We tested the hypothesis that significant variation in RBC transfusion practices between centers in our state's cardiac surgery quality collaborative remains even after risk adjustment. Using a multiinstitutional statewide database created by the Maryland Cardiac Surgery Quality Initiative (MCSQI), we included patient-level data from 8,141 patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass (CAB) or aortic valve replacement at 1 of 10 centers. Risk-adjusted multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to predict the need for any intraoperative RBC transfusion, as well as for any postoperative RBC transfusion, with anonymized center number included as a factor variable. Unadjusted intraoperative RBC transfusion probabilities at the 10 centers ranged from 13% to 60%; postoperative RBC transfusion probabilities ranged from 16% to 41%. After risk adjustment with demographic, comorbidity, and operative data, significant intercenter variability was documented (intraoperative probability range, 4% -59%; postoperative probability range, 13%-39%). When stratifying patients by preoperative hematocrit quartiles, significant variability in intraoperative transfusion probability was seen among all quartiles (lowest quartile: mean hematocrit value, 30.5% ± 4.1%, probability range, 17%-89%; highest quartile: mean hematocrit value, 44.8% ± 2.5%; probability range, 1%-35%). Significant variation in intercenter RBC transfusion practices exists for both intraoperative and postoperative transfusions, even after risk adjustment, among our state's centers. Variability in intraoperative RBC transfusion persisted across quartiles of preoperative hematocrit values. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probability concepts in quality risk management.

PubMed

Claycamp, H Gregg

2012-01-01

Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management.

[Risk, uncertainty and ignorance in medicine].

PubMed

Rørtveit, G; Strand, R

2001-04-30

Exploration of healthy patients' risk factors for disease has become a major medical activity. The rationale behind primary prevention through exploration and therapeutic risk reduction is not separated from the theoretical assumption that every form of uncertainty can be expressed as risk. Distinguishing "risk" (as quantitative probabilities in a known sample space), "strict uncertainty" (when the sample space is known, but probabilities of events cannot be quantified) and "ignorance" (when the sample space is not fully known), a typical clinical situation (primary risk of coronary disease) is analysed. It is shown how strict uncertainty and sometimes ignorance can be present, in which case the orthodox decision theoretical rationale for treatment breaks down. For use in such cases, a different ideal model of rationality is proposed, focusing on the patient's considered reasons. This model has profound implications for the current understanding of medical professionalism as well as for the design of clinical guidelines.

Assessing osteoporosis risk factors in Spanish menopausal women.

PubMed

Martínez Pérez, José Antonio; Palacios, Santiago; García, Felipe Chavida; Pérez, Maite

2011-10-01

(1) To assess the prevalence of osteoporosis risk factors in Spanish menopausal women; (2) to detect medical and lifestyle risk factor differences between perimenopausal and postmenopausal women; (3) and to identify the main factors responsible for osteoporosis. Cross-sectional descriptive study encompassing women aged 45-65 across Spain. The study population sample was collected through random sampling and a total of 10,514 women were included. Socio-demographic, medical history, and lifestyle data were assessed. The prevalence of osteoporosis risk factors was 67.6%. The most common risk factors were physical inactivity (53.6%), use of medication related to osteoporosis risk (45.9%), and low calcium intake (30.1%). There were statistically significant differences between peri- and postmenopausal women in terms of smoking status, alcohol intake, personal history, poor dairy product intake, and medication use that could increase risk. Logistic regression analysis showed that osteoporosis was significantly associated with age, family history, age at onset of menopause, Kupperman Index, prolonged immobilization, weight loss, and other diseases that increase the probability of developing osteoporosis. A high prevalence of women taking osteoporosis risk-related medication was observed in our study. There was correlation between the menopausal symptoms' degree of severity and the risk of suffering from osteoporosis.

Clinical and sonographic risk factors and complications of shoulder dystocia - a case-control study with parity and gestational age matched controls.

PubMed

Parantainen, Jukka; Palomäki, Outi; Talola, Nina; Uotila, Jukka

2014-06-01

To examine the clinical risk factors and complications of shoulder dystocia today and to evaluate ultrasound methods predicting it. Retrospective, matched case-control study at a University Hospital with 5000 annual deliveries. The study population consisted of 152 deliveries complicated by shoulder dystocia over a period of 8.5 years (January 2004-June 2012) and 152 controls matched for gestational age and parity. The data was collected from the medical records of mothers and children and analyzed by conditional logistic regression. Incidences and odds ratios were calculated for risk factors and complications. Antenatal ultrasound data was analyzed when available by conditional logistic regression to test for significant differences between study groups. Birthweight (OR 12.1 for ≥4000 g; 95% CI 4.18-35.0) and vacuum extraction (OR 3.98; 95% CI 1.25-12.7) remained the most significant clinical risk factors. Only a trend of an association of pregestational or gestational diabetes was noticed (OR 1.87; 95% CI 0.997-3.495, probability of type II error 51%). Of the complications of shoulder dystocia the incidence of brachial plexus palsies was high (40%). Antenatal ultrasound method based on the difference between abdominal and biparietal diameters had a significant difference between cases and controls. The impact of diabetes as a risk factor has diminished, which may reflect improved screening and treatment. Antenatal ultrasound methods are showing some promise, but the predictive value of ultrasound alone is probably low. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Factors Affecting the Selection of Patients on Waiting List: A Single Center Study.

PubMed

Can, Ö; Kasapoğlu, U; Boynueğri, B; Tuğcu, M; Çağlar Ruhi, B; Canbakan, M; Murat Gökçe, A; Ata, P; İzzet Titiz, M; Apaydın, S

2015-06-01

There is an increasing gap between organ supply and demand for cadaveric transplantation in our country. Our aim was to evaluate factors affecting selection of patients on waiting list at our hospital. Patients who have been waiting on list and who were transplanted were compared in order to find factors, which affected the selection of patients. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison and cox regression analysis was used to find the risk factors that decrease the probability of transplantation in this retrospective case-control study. Patients in the transplanted group were significantly younger, had relatively lower body mass index than the awaiting group. Cardiovascular diseases were more in the awaiting group than the transplanted group. There was no patient with diabetes in transplanted group, despite fifteen diabetic patients were in the awaiting group. Selected patients had lower immunologic risk with regard to peak panel reactive antibody levels. No significant difference was found for gender, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, viral serology, time spent on dialysis and on waiting list between two groups. With cox regression analysis female gender, older age, diabetes mellitus, high body mass index, positive hepatitis B serology and high levels of peak class 1-2 peak panel reactive antibody positivity were found as risk factors that decrease the probability of transplantation. A tendency for selection of low risk patients was found with this study. Time and energy consuming complications and short allograft survival after transplantation in high risk patients and the scarcity of cadaveric pool in our country may contribute to this tendency. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of classification tree and logistic regression for the management and health intervention plans in a community-based study.

PubMed

Teng, Ju-Hsi; Lin, Kuan-Chia; Ho, Bin-Shenq

2007-10-01

A community-based aboriginal study was conducted and analysed to explore the application of classification tree and logistic regression. A total of 1066 aboriginal residents in Yilan County were screened during 2003-2004. The independent variables include demographic characteristics, physical examinations, geographic location, health behaviours, dietary habits and family hereditary diseases history. Risk factors of cardiovascular diseases were selected as the dependent variables in further analysis. The completion rate for heath interview is 88.9%. The classification tree results find that if body mass index is higher than 25.72 kg m(-2) and the age is above 51 years, the predicted probability for number of cardiovascular risk factors > or =3 is 73.6% and the population is 322. If body mass index is higher than 26.35 kg m(-2) and geographical latitude of the village is lower than 24 degrees 22.8', the predicted probability for number of cardiovascular risk factors > or =4 is 60.8% and the population is 74. As the logistic regression results indicate that body mass index, drinking habit and menopause are the top three significant independent variables. The classification tree model specifically shows the discrimination paths and interactions between the risk groups. The logistic regression model presents and analyses the statistical independent factors of cardiovascular risks. Applying both models to specific situations will provide a different angle for the design and management of future health intervention plans after community-based study.

A discrete choice model of drug abuse treatment location.

PubMed Central

Goodman, A C; Nishiura, E; Hankin, J R

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To identify short-term drug abuse treatment location risk factors for ten large, self-insured firms starting January 1, 1989 and ending December 31, 1991. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Study population selected from a large database of health insurance claims for all treatment events starting January 1, 1989 and ending December 31, 1991. STUDY DESIGN: A nested binomial logit method is used to estimate firm-specific patterns of treatment location. The differences in treatment location patterns among firms are then decomposed into firm effects (holding explanatory variables constant among firms) and variable effects (holding firm-specific parameters constant). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Probability of inpatient drug treatment is directly related to the type of drug diagnosis. The most important factors are diagnoses of drug dependence (versus drug abuse) and/or a cocaine dependence. Firm-specific factors also make a substantive difference. Controlling for patient risk factors, firm-specific probabilities of inpatient treatment vary by as much as 87 percent. Controlling for practices of firms and their insurance carriers, differing patient risk profiles cause probabilities of inpatient treatment to vary by as much as 69 percent among firms. Use of the outpatient setting increased over the three-year period. CONCLUSIONS: There are two plausible explanations for the findings. First, people beginning treatment later in the three-year period had less severe conditions than earlier cases and therefore had less need of inpatient treatment. Second, drug abuse treatment experienced the same trend toward the increased use of outpatient care that characterized treatment for other illnesses in the 1980s and early 1990s. PMID:9566181

Perceptions of disease risk: from social construction of subjective judgments to rational decision making.

PubMed

McRoberts, N; Hall, C; Madden, L V; Hughes, G

2011-06-01

Many factors influence how people form risk perceptions. Farmers' perceptions of risk and levels of risk aversion impact on decision-making about such things as technology adoption and disease management practices. Irrespective of the underlying factors that affect risk perceptions, those perceptions can be summarized by variables capturing impact and uncertainty components of risk. We discuss a new framework that has the subjective probability of disease and the cost of decision errors as its central features, which might allow a better integration of social science and epidemiology, to the benefit of plant disease management. By focusing on the probability and cost (or impact) dimensions of risk, the framework integrates research from the social sciences, economics, decision theory, and epidemiology. In particular, we review some useful properties of expected regret and skill value, two measures of expected cost that are particularly useful in the evaluation of decision tools. We highlight decision-theoretic constraints on the usefulness of decision tools that may partly explain cases of failure of adoption. We extend this analysis by considering information-theoretic criteria that link model complexity and relative performance and which might explain why users reject forecasters that impose even moderate increases in the complexity of decision making despite improvements in performance or accept very simple decision tools that have relatively poor performance.

Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects.

PubMed

Leu, Sou-Sen; Chang, Ching-Miao

2013-05-01

There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Delay and probability discounting of sexual and monetary outcomes in individuals with cocaine use disorders and matched controls.

PubMed

Johnson, Matthew W; Johnson, Patrick S; Herrmann, Evan S; Sweeney, Mary M

2015-01-01

Individuals with cocaine use disorders are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, partly due to higher rates of unprotected sex. Recent research suggests delay discounting of condom use is a factor in sexual HIV risk. Delay discounting is a behavioral economic concept describing how delaying an event reduces that event's value or impact on behavior. Probability discounting is a related concept describing how the uncertainty of an event decreases its impact on behavior. Individuals with cocaine use disorders (n = 23) and matched non-cocaine-using controls (n = 24) were compared in decision-making tasks involving hypothetical outcomes: delay discounting of condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task), delay discounting of money, the effect of sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk on likelihood of condom use (Sexual Probability Discounting Task), and probability discounting of money. The Cocaine group discounted delayed condom-protected sex (i.e., were more likely to have unprotected sex vs. wait for a condom) significantly more than controls in two of four Sexual Delay Discounting Task partner conditions. The Cocaine group also discounted delayed money (i.e., preferred smaller immediate amounts over larger delayed amounts) significantly more than controls. In the Sexual Probability Discounting Task, both groups showed sensitivity to STI risk, however the groups did not differ. The Cocaine group did not consistently discount probabilistic money more or less than controls. Steeper discounting of delayed, but not probabilistic, sexual outcomes may contribute to greater rates of sexual HIV risk among individuals with cocaine use disorders. Probability discounting of sexual outcomes may contribute to risk of unprotected sex in both groups. Correlations showed sexual and monetary results were unrelated, for both delay and probability discounting. The results highlight the importance of studying specific behavioral processes (e.g., delay and probability discounting) with respect to specific outcomes (e.g., monetary and sexual) to understand decision making in problematic behavior.

Delay and Probability Discounting of Sexual and Monetary Outcomes in Individuals with Cocaine Use Disorders and Matched Controls

PubMed Central

Johnson, Matthew W.; Johnson, Patrick S.; Herrmann, Evan S.; Sweeney, Mary M.

2015-01-01

Individuals with cocaine use disorders are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, partly due to higher rates of unprotected sex. Recent research suggests delay discounting of condom use is a factor in sexual HIV risk. Delay discounting is a behavioral economic concept describing how delaying an event reduces that event’s value or impact on behavior. Probability discounting is a related concept describing how the uncertainty of an event decreases its impact on behavior. Individuals with cocaine use disorders (n = 23) and matched non-cocaine-using controls (n = 24) were compared in decision-making tasks involving hypothetical outcomes: delay discounting of condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task), delay discounting of money, the effect of sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk on likelihood of condom use (Sexual Probability Discounting Task), and probability discounting of money. The Cocaine group discounted delayed condom-protected sex (i.e., were more likely to have unprotected sex vs. wait for a condom) significantly more than controls in two of four Sexual Delay Discounting Task partner conditions. The Cocaine group also discounted delayed money (i.e., preferred smaller immediate amounts over larger delayed amounts) significantly more than controls. In the Sexual Probability Discounting Task, both groups showed sensitivity to STI risk, however the groups did not differ. The Cocaine group did not consistently discount probabilistic money more or less than controls. Steeper discounting of delayed, but not probabilistic, sexual outcomes may contribute to greater rates of sexual HIV risk among individuals with cocaine use disorders. Probability discounting of sexual outcomes may contribute to risk of unprotected sex in both groups. Correlations showed sexual and monetary results were unrelated, for both delay and probability discounting. The results highlight the importance of studying specific behavioral processes (e.g., delay and probability discounting) with respect to specific outcomes (e.g., monetary and sexual) to understand decision making in problematic behavior. PMID:26017273

Development and Preliminary Performance of a Risk Factor Screen to Predict Posttraumatic Psychological Disorder After Trauma Exposure

PubMed Central

Carlson, Eve B.; Palmieri, Patrick A.; Spain, David A.

2017-01-01

Objective We examined data from a prospective study of risk factors that increase vulnerability or resilience, exacerbate distress, or foster recovery to determine whether risk factors accurately predict which individuals will later have high posttraumatic (PT) symptom levels and whether brief measures of risk factors also accurately predict later symptom elevations. Method Using data from 129 adults exposed to traumatic injury of self or a loved one, we conducted receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of 14 risk factors assessed by full-length measures, determined optimal cutoff scores and calculated predictive performance for the nine that were most predictive. For five risk factors, we identified sets of items that accounted for 90% of variance in total scores and calculated predictive performance for sets of brief risk measures. Results A set of nine risk factors assessed by full measures identified 89% of those who later had elevated PT symptoms (sensitivity) and 78% of those who did not (specificity). A set of four brief risk factor measures assessed soon after injury identified 86% of those who later had elevated PT symptoms and 72% of those who did not. Conclusions Use of sets of brief risk factor measures shows promise of accurate prediction of PT psychological disorder and probable PTSD or depression. Replication of predictive accuracy is needed in a new and larger sample. PMID:28622811

Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

2017-06-01

In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

Effectiveness of landslide risk mitigation strategies in Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chun-Yi; Chen, Su-Chin

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to establish landslide risk analysis procedures that can be used to analyze landslide risk in a watershed scale and to assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Landslide risk analysis encompassed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability of elements at risk, and community resilience capacity. First, landslide spatial probability, landslide temporal probability, and landslide area probability were joined to estimate the probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, the expected property and life losses were both analyzed in vulnerability analysis. Different elements at risk were assigned corresponding values, and then used in conjunction with the vulnerabilities to carry out quantitative analysis. Third, the resilience capacity of different communities was calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of individual items, including "the participation experience of disaster prevention drill," "real-time monitoring mechanism of community," "autonomous monitoring of residents," and "disaster prevention volunteer." Finally, the landslide probabilities, vulnerability analysis results, and resilience capacities were combined to assess landslide risk in Shihmen Watershed. In addition, the risks before and after the implementation of non-structural disaster prevention strategies were compared to determine the benefits of various strategies, and subsequently benefit-cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit-cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit-cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating that the effectiveness of strategies was greater than the investment cost, and these measures were thus cost-effective. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in vulnerability and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit-cost ratio. However, with regard to effectiveness analysis, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.

Prevalence of hepatitis B virus markers among hospital personnel in Israel: correlation with some risk factors.

PubMed

Weiss, Y; Rabinovitch, M; Cahaner, Y; Noy, D; Siegman-Igra, Y

1994-03-01

During 1986-1987, 480 employees of the Tel-Aviv Medical Center were screened for hepatitis B virus (HBV) markers as a preliminary step in a vaccination campaign. One hundred and seventeen (24.4%) had evidence of previous infection, including nine (1.9%) carriers. The effect of potential risk factors on seropositivity was evaluated by multiple logistic regression analysis, which enabled assessment of the individual contribution of each risk factor under the specific environmental conditions. The following risk factors were found to influence seropositivity: origin from Third World countries as opposed to the Western World, employment as sanitary workers, age over 40 years, and history of accidental needle punctures. In the heterogeneous Israeli population, hospital workers had a relatively high prevalence of HBV markers, probably resulting from occupational exposure.

Developmental dyslexia: predicting individual risk.

PubMed

Thompson, Paul A; Hulme, Charles; Nash, Hannah M; Gooch, Debbie; Hayiou-Thomas, Emma; Snowling, Margaret J

2015-09-01

Causal theories of dyslexia suggest that it is a heritable disorder, which is the outcome of multiple risk factors. However, whether early screening for dyslexia is viable is not yet known. The study followed children at high risk of dyslexia from preschool through the early primary years assessing them from age 3 years and 6 months (T1) at approximately annual intervals on tasks tapping cognitive, language, and executive-motor skills. The children were recruited to three groups: children at family risk of dyslexia, children with concerns regarding speech, and language development at 3;06 years and controls considered to be typically developing. At 8 years, children were classified as 'dyslexic' or not. Logistic regression models were used to predict the individual risk of dyslexia and to investigate how risk factors accumulate to predict poor literacy outcomes. Family-risk status was a stronger predictor of dyslexia at 8 years than low language in preschool. Additional predictors in the preschool years include letter knowledge, phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming, and executive skills. At the time of school entry, language skills become significant predictors, and motor skills add a small but significant increase to the prediction probability. We present classification accuracy using different probability cutoffs for logistic regression models and ROC curves to highlight the accumulation of risk factors at the individual level. Dyslexia is the outcome of multiple risk factors and children with language difficulties at school entry are at high risk. Family history of dyslexia is a predictor of literacy outcome from the preschool years. However, screening does not reach an acceptable clinical level until close to school entry when letter knowledge, phonological awareness, and RAN, rather than family risk, together provide good sensitivity and specificity as a screening battery. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Risk factors associated with NSAID-induced upper gastrointestinal bleeding resulting in hospital admissions: A cross-sectional, retrospective, case series analysis in valencia, spain

PubMed Central

Marco, José Luis; Amariles, Pedro; Boscá, Beatriz; Castelló, Ana

2007-01-01

Abstract Background NSAIDs are a significant cause of drug-related hospital admissions and deaths. The therapeutic effects of NSAIDs have been associated with the risk for developing adverse events, mainly in the gastrointestinal tract. Objectives The focus of this study was to identify the most common risk factors associated with NSAID-induced upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) resulting in hospital admissions. A secondary end point was the relationship between use of gastroprotective treatment and relevant risk factors to NSAID-induced UGIB in the selected population. Methods This study was a cross-sectional, retrospective, case-series analysis of NSAID-induced UGIB resulting in hospital admission to the Requena General Hospital, Valencia, Spain, occurring from 1997 to 2005. International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes were used to identify UGIB admissions associated with NSAIDs. To estimate the probability of association between UGIB and the use of NSAIDs, the Naranjo adverse drug reaction probability was used. Patients were categorized as high-risk to develop UGIB if they met ≥1 of the following risk criteria (relevant risk factors): aged ≥65 years (age risk factor); peptic ulcer disease or NSAID gastropathy occurring in the year before their hospital admission (history risk factor); and concomitant use of other NSAIDs, systemic corticoids, oral anticoagulants, or platelet aggregation inhibitors (concomitant medication risk factor). Patients were categorized as candidates to use gastroprotections if they met ≥1 of the relevant risk factors. Patients were categorized as users of gastroprotective treatment if they used proton pump inhibitors, histamine H2-receptor antagonists, or misoprostol at hospital admission. Results This study comprised 209 cases of NSAID-induced UGIB (129 men, 80 women: mean [SD] age, 71.5 [13.8] years; 128 [61.2%] receiving acetyl salicylic acid [ASA], with 72 [34.4%] receiving low-dose [80–325 mg] ASA). Prevalence of relevant risk factors for UGIB were as follows: age, 158 (75.6%) patients; history, 37 (17.7%); and concomitant medication, 35 (16.7%). One hundred seventy-eight (85.2%) patients met ≥1 criterion for using a gastroprotective agent; 28 (15.6%) were actually using one. Only the history risk factor was significantly associated with the use of gastroprotective treatment (P = 0.007; odds ratio = 3.17). Conclusions In this study of NSAID-induced UGIB resulting in hospital admission, age was the most common risk factor. However, this criterion was not associated with the use of gastroprotective agents. A large number of cases were associated with the use of ASA, primarily in those receiving low doses. A significant lack of gastroprotective agent use was observed in patients who met the criteria to use them. PMID:24678124

Neuroimaging Characteristics of Small-Vessel Disease in Older Adults with Normal Cognition, Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Alzheimer Disease.

PubMed

Mimenza-Alvarado, Alberto; Aguilar-Navarro, Sara G; Yeverino-Castro, Sara; Mendoza-Franco, César; Ávila-Funes, José Alberto; Román, Gustavo C

2018-01-01

Cerebral small-vessel disease (SVD) represents the most frequent type of vascular brain lesions, often coexisting with Alzheimer disease (AD). By quantifying white matter hyperintensities (WMH) and hippocampal and parietal atrophy, we aimed to describe the prevalence and severity of SVD among older adults with normal cognition (NC), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and probable AD and to describe associated risk factors. This study included 105 older adults evaluated with magnetic resonance imaging and clinical and neuropsychological tests. We used the Fazekas scale (FS) for quantification of WMH, the Scheltens scale (SS) for hippocampal atrophy, and the Koedam scale (KS) for parietal atrophy. Logistic regression models were performed to determine the association between FS, SS, and KS scores and the presence of NC, MCI, or probable AD. Compared to NC subjects, SVD was more prevalent in MCI and probable AD subjects. After adjusting for confounding factors, logistic regression showed a positive association between higher scores on the FS and probable AD (OR = 7.6, 95% CI 2.7-20, p < 0.001). With the use of the SS and KS (OR = 4.5, 95% CI 3.5-58, p = 0.003 and OR = 8.9, 95% CI 1-72, p = 0.04, respectively), the risk also remained significant for probable AD. These results suggest an association between severity of vascular brain lesions and neurodegeneration.

Risk analysis for dry snow slab avalanche release by skier triggering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClung, David

2013-04-01

Risk analysis is of primary importance for skier triggering of avalanches since human triggering is responsible for about 90% of deaths from slab avalanches in Europe and North America. Two key measureable quantities about dry slab avalanche release prior to initiation are the depth to the weak layer and the slope angle. Both are important in risk analysis. As the slope angle increases, the probability of avalanche release increases dramatically. As the slab depth increases, the consequences increase if an avalanche releases. Among the simplest risk definitions is (Vick, 2002): Risk = (Probability of failure) x (Consequences of failure). Here, these two components of risk are the probability or chance of avalanche release and the consequences given avalanche release. In this paper, for the first time, skier triggered avalanches were analyzed from probability theory and its relation to risk for both the D and . The data consisted of two quantities : (,D) taken from avalanche fracture line profiles after an avalanche has taken place. Two data sets from accidentally skier triggered avalanches were considered: (1) 718 for and (2) a set of 1242 values of D which represent average values along the fracture line. The values of D were both estimated (about 2/3) and measured (about 1/3) by ski guides from Canadian Mountain Holidays CMH). I also analyzed 1231 accidentally skier triggered avalanches reported by CMH ski guides for avalanche size (representing destructive potential) on the Canadian scale. The size analysis provided a second analysis of consequences to verify that using D. The results showed that there is an intermediate range of both D and with highest risk. ForD, the risk (product of consequences and probability of occurrence) is highest for D in the approximate range 0.6 m - 1.0 m. The consequences are low for lower values of D and the chance of release is low for higher values of D. Thus, the highest product is in the intermediate range. For slope angles, the risk analysis showed there are two ranges: ˜ 320; × 460for which risk is lowest. In this case, both the range of and the consequences vary by about a factor of two so the probability of release dominates the risk analysis to yield low risk at the tails of the distribution of with highest risk in the middle (330 - 450) of the expected range (250 - 550).

Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy.

PubMed

Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Alcasena, Fermin J; Arca, Bachisio; Finney, Mark A; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Spano, Donatella

2015-01-01

In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September. Peak burn probability and flame length were observed in late July. We found that patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity were mainly related to spatiotemporal variation in ignition locations, fuel moisture, and wind vectors. Our modeling approach allowed consideration of historical patterns of winds, ignition locations, and live and dead fuel moisture on fire exposure factors. The methodology proposed can be useful for analyzing potential wildfire risk and effects at landscape scale, evaluating historical changes and future trends in wildfire exposure, as well as for addressing and informing fuel management and risk mitigation issues.

Different pathological features and prognosis in gastric cancer patients coming from high-risk and low-risk areas of Italy.

PubMed

Marrelli, Daniele; Pedrazzani, Corrado; Corso, Giovanni; Neri, Alessandro; Di Martino, Marianna; Pinto, Enrico; Roviello, Franco

2009-07-01

To compare clinicopathological features and long-term outcome in gastric cancer patients coming from high-risk and low-risk areas of Italy. Better survival rates have been reported from countries with higher incidence of gastric cancer. Data regarding 829 patients coming from Tuscany (group A) and 143 patients coming from Southern Italy (group B) were analyzed. Mean follow-up time was 56 +/- 57 months; it was 85 +/- 63 months in surviving patients or not tumor-related deaths. Prognostic factors were investigated by multivariate analysis with Cox proportional hazard model after verifying the assumption of proportionality of the risk associated with covariates. Lauren diffuse-mixed histotype, younger age, extended lymphadenectomy, and advanced stages were more common in group B. Gastric cancer-related 10-year survival probability was 48% in group A versus 29% in group B (log-rank test: P < 0.001). By multivariate analysis, geographic area was confirmed as a significant prognostic factor (hazard ratio for group B vs. group A: 1.52, 95% confidence interval: 1.12-2.06, P = 0.006). The influence of this factor on long-term survival was independent from other clinical, surgical, and pathologic factors, and was notable in neoplasms involving the serosa (10-year survival probability: 15% in group A vs. 3% in group B, log-rank test: P = 0.005). Patients coming from low-risk area of Italy showed distinct pathologic features, more advanced stage, and worse prognosis when compared with patients coming from high-risk area. These findings may be indicative of different tumor biology, and may contribute to partly explain worldwide geographic variability in prognosis reported in different series.

Using an autologistic regression model to identify spatial risk factors and spatial risk patterns of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background There have been large-scale outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Mainland China over the last decade. These events varied greatly across the country. It is necessary to identify the spatial risk factors and spatial distribution patterns of HFMD for public health control and prevention. Climate risk factors associated with HFMD occurrence have been recognized. However, few studies discussed the socio-economic determinants of HFMD risk at a space scale. Methods HFMD records in Mainland China in May 2008 were collected. Both climate and socio-economic factors were selected as potential risk exposures of HFMD. Odds ratio (OR) was used to identify the spatial risk factors. A spatial autologistic regression model was employed to get OR values of each exposures and model the spatial distribution patterns of HFMD risk. Results Results showed that both climate and socio-economic variables were spatial risk factors for HFMD transmission in Mainland China. The statistically significant risk factors are monthly average precipitation (OR = 1.4354), monthly average temperature (OR = 1.379), monthly average wind speed (OR = 1.186), the number of industrial enterprises above designated size (OR = 17.699), the population density (OR = 1.953), and the proportion of student population (OR = 1.286). The spatial autologistic regression model has a good goodness of fit (ROC = 0.817) and prediction accuracy (Correct ratio = 78.45%) of HFMD occurrence. The autologistic regression model also reduces the contribution of the residual term in the ordinary logistic regression model significantly, from 17.25 to 1.25 for the odds ratio. Based on the prediction results of the spatial model, we obtained a map of the probability of HFMD occurrence that shows the spatial distribution pattern and local epidemic risk over Mainland China. Conclusions The autologistic regression model was used to identify spatial risk factors and model spatial risk patterns of HFMD. HFMD occurrences were found to be spatially heterogeneous over the Mainland China, which is related to both the climate and socio-economic variables. The combination of socio-economic and climate exposures can explain the HFMD occurrences more comprehensively and objectively than those with only climate exposures. The modeled probability of HFMD occurrence at the county level reveals not only the spatial trends, but also the local details of epidemic risk, even in the regions where there were no HFMD case records. PMID:24731248

Cerebral metastases in metastatic breast cancer: disease-specific risk factors and survival.

PubMed

Heitz, F; Rochon, J; Harter, P; Lueck, H-J; Fisseler-Eckhoff, A; Barinoff, J; Traut, A; Lorenz-Salehi, F; du Bois, A

2011-07-01

Survival of patients suffering from cerebral metastases (CM) is limited. Identification of patients with a high risk for CM is warranted to adjust follow-up care and to evaluate preventive strategies. Exploratory analysis of disease-specific parameter in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) treated between 1998 and 2008 using cumulative incidences and Fine and Grays' multivariable regression analyses. After a median follow-up of 4.0 years, 66 patients (10.5%) developed CM. The estimated probability for CM was 5%, 12% and 15% at 1, 5 and 10 years; in contrast, the probability of death without CM was 21%, 61% and 76%, respectively. A small tumor size, ER status, ductal histology, lung and lymph node metastases, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive (HER2+) tumors, younger age and M0 were associated with CM in univariate analyses, the latter three being risk factors in the multivariable model. Survival was shortened in patient developing CM (24.0 months) compared with patients with no CM (33.6 months) in the course of MBC. Young patients, primary with non-metastatic disease and HER2+ tumors, have a high risk to develop CM in MBC. Survival of patients developing CM in the course of MBC is impaired compared with patients without CM.

Relationships among parental monitoring and sensation seeking on the development of substance use disorder among college students

PubMed Central

Kaynak, Övgü; Meyers, Kathleen; Caldeira, Kimberly M.; Vincent, Kathryn B.; Winters, Ken C.; Arria, Amelia M.

2012-01-01

Substance use disorder is a serious health problem that tends to manifest in late adolescence. Attempting to influence targetable risk and protective factors holds promise for prevention and treatment. Survey data from 1,253 college students (48.5% male, 26.9% non-White) were used to investigate the independent and combined effects of two prominent factors, sensation seeking and parental monitoring, on the probability of alcohol and/or cannabis dependence during the first year of college. In multivariate analyses that controlled for high school use, gender, race, mother’s education, and importance of religion, retrospective reports by the student of parental behavior during the last year of high school indicated that higher levels of parental monitoring had a direct effect on reducing risk for alcohol dependence during the first year of college, but not on cannabis dependence. High levels of sensation seeking were associated with increased risk for both alcohol and cannabis dependence. No interaction effects were found. The results extend prior findings by highlighting influences of pre-college parental monitoring and sensation seeking on the probability of alcohol and/or cannabis dependence during the first year of college. The findings also suggest that these two factors are useful in identifying college students at high risk for alcohol and/or cannabis dependence. PMID:23017733

Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales.

PubMed

Adkin, A; Brouwer, A; Simons, R R L; Smith, R P; Arnold, M E; Broughan, J; Kosmider, R; Downs, S H

2016-01-01

Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Association of Exposure, Risk, and Resiliency Factors With PTSD Among Jews and Arabs Exposed to Repeated Acts of Terrorism in Israel

PubMed Central

Hobfoll, Stevan E.; Canetti-Nisim, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J.; Palmieri, Patrick A.; Varley, Joseph D.; Galea, Sandro

2009-01-01

Israel has faced ongoing terrorism since the beginning of the Al Aqsa Intifada in September 2000. The authors examined risk and resiliency factors associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among 1,117 Jews and 394 Arab adult citizens of Israel during August and September 2004 through telephone interviews. Probable PTSD was found among 6.6% of Jews and 18.0% of Arabs. Predictors of probable PTSD in a multivariate model for Jews were refusal to report income, being traditionally religious, economic and psychosocial resource loss, greater traumatic growth, and lower social support. For Arabs, predictors were low education and economic resource loss among those exposed to terrorism. Findings for only those directly exposed to terrorism were similar to those for the overall national sample. PMID:18302179

The association of exposure, risk, and resiliency factors with PTSD among Jews and Arabs exposed to repeated acts of terrorism in Israel.

PubMed

Hobfoll, Stevan E; Canetti-Nisim, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J; Palmieri, Patrick A; Varley, Joseph D; Galea, Sandro

2008-02-01

Israel has faced ongoing terrorism since the beginning of the Al Aqsa Intifada in September 2000. The authors examined risk and resiliency factors associated with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among 1,117 Jews and 394 Arab adult citizens of Israel during August and September 2004 through telephone interviews. Probable PTSD was found among 6.6% of Jews and 18.0% of Arabs. Predictors of probable PTSD in a multivariate model for Jews were refusal to report income, being traditionally religious, economic and psychosocial resource loss, greater traumatic growth, and lower social support. For Arabs, predictors were low education and economic resource loss among those exposed to terrorism. Findings for only those directly exposed to terrorism were similar to those for the overall national sample.

Ecological risk assessment of a coastal zone in Southern Vietnam: Spatial distribution and content of heavy metals in water and surface sediments of the Thi Vai Estuary and Can Gio Mangrove Forest.

PubMed

Costa-Böddeker, Sandra; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Thuyên, Lê Xuân; Huy, Hoang Duc; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Richter, Otto; Schwalb, Antje

2017-01-30

Enrichment of heavy metals was assessed in the Thi Vai Estuary and in the Can Gio Mangrove Forest (SE, Vietnam). Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn contents in water and in sediments were measured. Total organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and C/N ratios were determined. Cu and Cr values were higher than threshold effect level of toxicity, while Ni exceeded probable effect level, indicating the risk of probable toxicity effects. Enrichment factors (EF), contamination factor (CF) and Geo-accumulation index (I-geo) were determined. CF reveals moderate to considerable pollution with Cr and Ni. EF suggests anthropogenic sources of Cr, Cu and Ni. I-geo indicates low contamination with Co, Cu and Zn and moderate contamination with Cr and Ni. Overall metal contents were lower than expected for this highly industrialized region, probably due to dilution, suggesting that erosion rates and hydrodynamics may also play a role in metal contents distribution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2011-12-01

Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

Ecologically rational choice and the structure of the environment.

PubMed

Pleskac, Timothy J; Hertwig, Ralph

2014-10-01

In life, risk is reward and vice versa. Unfortunately, the big rewards people desire are relatively unlikely to occur. This relationship between risk and reward or probabilities and payoffs seems obvious to the financial community and to laypeople alike. Yet theories of decision making have largely ignored it. We conducted an ecological analysis of life's gambles, ranging from the domains of roulette and life insurance to scientific publications and artificial insemination. Across all domains, payoffs and probabilities proved intimately tied, with payoff magnitudes signaling their probabilities. In some cases, the constraints of the market result in these two core elements of choice being related via a power function; in other cases, other factors such as social norms appear to produce the inverse relationship between risks and rewards. We offer evidence that decision makers exploit this relationship in the form of a heuristic--the risk-reward heuristic--to infer the probability of a payoff during decisions under uncertainty. We demonstrate how the heuristic can help explain observed ambiguity aversion. We further show how this ecological relationship can inform other aspects of decision making, particularly the approach of using monetary lotteries to study choice under risk and uncertainty. Taken together, these findings suggest that theories of decision making need to model not only the decision process but also the environment to which the process is adapted.

Empirical estimation of the conditional probability of natech events within the United States.

PubMed

Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Aguirra, Gloria Andrea

2011-06-01

Natural disasters are the cause of a sizeable number of hazmat releases, referred to as "natechs." An enhanced understanding of natech probability, allowing for predictions of natech occurrence, is an important step in determining how industry and government should mitigate natech risk. This study quantifies the conditional probabilities of natechs at TRI/RMP and SICS 1311 facilities given the occurrence of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods. During hurricanes, a higher probability of releases was observed due to storm surge (7.3 releases per 100 TRI/RMP facilities exposed vs. 6.2 for SIC 1311) compared to category 1-2 hurricane winds (5.6 TRI, 2.6 SIC 1311). Logistic regression confirms the statistical significance of the greater propensity for releases at RMP/TRI facilities, and during some hurricanes, when controlling for hazard zone. The probability of natechs at TRI/RMP facilities during earthquakes increased from 0.1 releases per 100 facilities at MMI V to 21.4 at MMI IX. The probability of a natech at TRI/RMP facilities within 25 miles of a tornado was small (∼0.025 per 100 facilities), reflecting the limited area directly affected by tornadoes. Areas inundated during flood events had a probability of 1.1 releases per 100 facilities but demonstrated widely varying natech occurrence during individual events, indicating that factors not quantified in this study such as flood depth and speed are important for predicting flood natechs. These results can inform natech risk analysis, aid government agencies responsible for planning response and remediation after natural disasters, and should be useful in raising awareness of natech risk within industry. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

PubMed

Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

2017-09-01

We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Radiation effects and risks: overview and a new risk perception index.

PubMed

Rehani, M M

2015-07-01

Uncertainty provides opportunities for differences in perception, and radiation risks at low level of exposures involved in few computed tomography scans fall in this category. While there is good agreement among national and international organisations on risk probability of cancer, risk perception has barely been dealt with by these organisations. Risk perception is commonly defined as the subjective judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk. Severity and latency are important factors in perception. There is a need to connect all these. Leaving risk perception purely as a subjective judgement provides opportunities for people to amplifying risk. The author postulates a risk perception index as severity divided by latency that becomes determining factor for risk perception. It is hoped that this index will bring rationality in risk perception. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners' use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies.

PubMed

Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; McKinn, Shannon; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; McCaffery, Kirsten

2014-05-29

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs' descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: 'positive', 'scare tactic', and 'indirect'. A 'positive' strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A 'scare tactic' strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to 'scare' them into taking action. An 'indirect' strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice.

Investigation of an Outbreak of Variant Influenza A(H3N2) Virus Infection Associated With an Agricultural Fair-Ohio, August 2012.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Adena; Quinn, Celia; Bailer, Jennifer; Su, Su; Havers, Fiona; Durand, Lizette O; Jiang, Victoria; Page, Shannon; Budd, Jeremy; Shaw, Michael; Biggerstaff, Matthew; de Fijter, Sietske; Smith, Kathleen; Reed, Carrie; Epperson, Scott; Brammer, Lynnette; Feltz, Dave; Sohner, Kevin; Ford, Jared; Jain, Seema; Gargiullo, Paul; Weiss, Edward; Burg, Pat; DiOrio, Mary; Fowler, Brian; Finelli, Lyn; Jhung, Michael A

2015-11-15

In 2012, one third of cases in a multistate outbreak of variant influenza A(H3N2) virus ([H3N2]v) infection occurred in Ohio. We conducted an investigation of (H3N2)v cases associated with agricultural Fair A in Ohio. We surveyed Fair A swine exhibitors and their household members. Confirmed cases had influenza-like illness (ILI) and a positive laboratory test for (H3N2)v, and probable cases had ILI. We calculated attack rates. We determined risk factors for infection, using multivariable log-binomial regression. We identified 20 confirmed and 94 probable cases associated with Fair A. Among 114 cases, the median age was 10 years, there were no hospitalizations or deaths, and 82% had swine exposure. In the exhibitor household cohort of 359 persons (83 households), we identified 6 confirmed cases (2%) and 40 probable cases (11%). An age of <10 years was a significant risk factor (P < .01) for illness. One instance of likely human-to-human transmission was identified. In this (H3N2)v outbreak, no evidence of sustained human-to-human (H3N2)v transmission was found. Our risk factor analysis contributed to the development of the recommendation that people at increased risk of influenza-associated complications, including children aged <5 years, avoid swine barns at fairs during the 2012 fair season. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Reducing weapon-carrying among urban American Indian young people.

PubMed

Bearinger, Linda H; Pettingell, Sandra L; Resnick, Michael D; Potthoff, Sandra J

2010-07-01

To examine the likelihood of weapon-carrying among urban American Indian young people, given the presence of salient risk and protective factors. The study used data from a confidential, self-report Urban Indian Youth Health Survey with 200 forced-choice items examining risk and protective factors and social, contextual, and demographic information. Between 1995 and 1998, 569 American Indian youths, aged 9-15 years, completed surveys administered in public schools and an after-school program. Using logistic regression, probability profiles compared the likelihood of weapon-carrying, given the combinations of salient risk and protective factors. In the final models, weapon-carrying was associated significantly with one risk factor (substance use) and two protective factors (school connectedness, perceiving peers as having prosocial behavior attitudes/norms). With one risk factor and two protective factors, in various combinations in the models, the likelihood of weapon carrying ranged from 4% (with two protective factors and no risk factor in the model) to 80% of youth (with the risk factor and no protective factors in the model). Even in the presence of the risk factor, the two protective factors decreased the likelihood of weapon-carrying to 25%. This analysis highlights the importance of protective factors in comprehensive assessments and interventions for vulnerable youth. In that the risk factor and two protective factors significantly related to weapon-carrying are amenable to intervention at both individual and population-focused levels, study findings offer a guide for prioritizing strategies for decreasing weapon-carrying among urban American Indian young people. Copyright (c) 2010 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Opioid-Use Disorder and Overdose.

PubMed

Webster, Lynn R

2017-11-01

Opioid analgesics are recognized as a legitimate medical therapy for selected patients with severe chronic pain that does not respond to other therapies. However, opioids are associated with risks for patients and society that include misuse, abuse, diversion, addiction, and overdose deaths. Therapeutic success depends on proper candidate selection, assessment before administering opioid therapy, and close monitoring throughout the course of treatment. Risk assessment and prevention include knowledge of patient factors that may contribute to misuse, abuse, addiction, suicide, and respiratory depression. Risk factors for opioid misuse or addiction include past or current substance abuse, untreated psychiatric disorders, younger age, and social or family environments that encourage misuse. Opioid mortality prevalence is higher in people who are middle aged and have substance abuse and psychiatric comorbidities. Suicides are probably undercounted or frequently misclassified in reports of opioid-related poisoning deaths. Greater understanding and better assessment are needed of the risk associated with suicide risk in patients with pain. Clinical tools and an evolving evidence base are available to assist clinicians with identifying patients whose risk factors put them at risk for adverse outcomes with opioids.

[Hepatitis B case grouping serological study among six chinese families in Almeria, Spain].

PubMed

Barroso García, Pilar; Lucerna Méndez, M Angeles; Adrián Monforte, Estrella; Parrón Carreño, Tesifón

2004-01-01

Following the detection of two cases of members of 6 Chinese families having tested positive for the hepatitis B virus, a study of those living in these families was begun for the purpose of knowing the spread of the infection within the family environment of the cases detected. Descriptive study. Population under study: 24 members of six Chinese families. Age, sex, serological diagnosis, risk factors, healthcare-related attitude. Clinical records, serological data, epidemiological survey and immunization cards. A family focus was employed and the genogram used. Distribution Binomial spread for calculating probability of occurrence of the process to be studied. A total of 14 males (58.3%) and 10 females (41.7%) ranking from 1 to 54 years of age were studied. The age group having the largest number of subjects studied was the age 21-30 group (37.5%). Twelve chronic hepatitis B infections were recorded (50%). No relationship was found to exist with the risk factors studied in the epidemiological survey conducted. The probability of this number of chronic hepatitis cases occurring was 0.066 x 10(-6). It was concluded that the prevalence of infection found was probable due to intra-family transmission. Given the low probability of occurrence of a process of this type, the case grouping found is considered to be high.

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

2014-01-01

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Prevalence, Risk Factors, and Survival of Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma.

PubMed

Chinchilla-López, Paulina; Aguilar-Olivos, Nancy; García-Gómez, Jaime; Hernández-Alejandro, Karen; Chablé-Montero, Fredy; Motola-Kuba, Daniel; Patel, Tushar; Méndez-Sánchez, Nahum

2017-01-01

To investigate the prevalence, related risk factors, and survival of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in a Mexican population. We conducted a cross-sectional study at Medica Sur Hospital in Mexico City with approval of the local research ethics committee. We found cases by reviewing all clinical records of in-patients between October 2005 and January 2016 who had been diagnosed with malignant liver tumors. Clinical characteristics and comorbidities were obtained to evaluate the probable risk factors and the Charlson index. The cases were staged based on the TNM staging system for bile duct tumors used by the American Joint Committee on Cancer and median patient survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. We reviewed 233 cases of hepatic cancer. Amongst these, hepatocellular carcinomas represented 19.3% (n = 45), followed by intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas, which accounted for 7.7% (n = 18). The median age of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma was 63 years, and most of them presented with cholestasis and intrahepatic biliary ductal dilation. Unfortunately, 89% (n = 16) of them were in an advanced stage and 80% had multicentric tumors. Median survival was 286 days among patients with advanced stage tumors (25th-75th interquartile range, 174-645 days). No correlation was found between the presence of comorbidities defined by the Charlson index, and survival. We evaluated the presence of definite and probable risk factors for the development of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, that is, smoking, alcohol consumption, and primary sclerosing cholangitis. We found an overall prevalence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma of 7.7%; unfortunately, these patients were diagnosed at advanced stages. Smoking and primary sclerosing cholangitis were the positive risk factors for its development in this population.

Firearm Ownership and Acquisition Among Parents With Risk Factors for Self-Harm or Other Violence.

PubMed

Ladapo, Joseph A; Elliott, Marc N; Kanouse, David E; Schwebel, David C; Toomey, Sara L; Mrug, Sylvie; Cuccaro, Paula M; Tortolero, Susan R; Schuster, Mark A

Recent policy initiatives aiming to reduce firearm morbidity focus on mental health and illness. However, few studies have simultaneously examined mental health and behavioral predictors within families, or their longitudinal association with newly acquiring a firearm. Population-based, longitudinal survey of 4251 parents of fifth-grade students in 3 US metropolitan areas; 2004 to 2011. Multivariate logistic models were used to assess associations between owning or acquiring a firearm and parent mental illness and substance use. Ninety-three percent of parents interviewed were women. Overall, 19.6% of families reported keeping a firearm in the home. After adjustment for confounders, history of depression (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.77), binge drinking (aOR 1.75; 95% CI, 1.14-2.68), and illicit drug use (aOR 1.75; 95% CI, 1.12-2.76) were associated with a higher likelihood of keeping a firearm in the home. After a mean of 3.1 years, 6.1% of parents who did not keep a firearm in the home at baseline acquired one by follow-up and kept it in the home (average annual likelihood = 2.1%). No risk factors for self-harm or other violence were associated with newly acquiring a gun in the home. Families with risk factors for self-harm or other violence have a modestly greater probability of having a firearm in the home compared with families without risk factors, and similar probability of newly acquiring a firearm. Treatment interventions for many of these risk factors might reduce firearm-related morbidity. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism After Spine Surgery

PubMed Central

Tominaga, Hiroyuki; Setoguchi, Takao; Tanabe, Fumito; Kawamura, Ichiro; Tsuneyoshi, Yasuhiro; Kawabata, Naoya; Nagano, Satoshi; Abematsu, Masahiko; Yamamoto, Takuya; Yone, Kazunori; Komiya, Setsuro

2015-01-01

Abstract The efficacy and safety of chemical prophylaxis to prevent the development of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE) following spine surgery are controversial because of the possibility of epidural hematoma formation. Postoperative venous thromboembolism (VTE) after spine surgery occurs at a frequency similar to that seen after joint operations, so it is important to identify the risk factors for VTE formation following spine surgery. We therefore retrospectively studied data from patients who had undergone spinal surgery and developed postoperative VTE to identify those risk factors. We conducted a retrospective clinical study with logistic regression analysis of a group of 80 patients who had undergone spine surgery at our institution from June 2012 to August 2013. All patients had been screened by ultrasonography for DVT in the lower extremities. Parameters of the patients with VTE were compared with those without VTE using the Mann–Whitney U-test and Fisher exact probability test. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors associated with VTE. A value of P < 0.05 was used to denote statistical significance. The prevalence of VTE was 25.0% (20/80 patients). One patient had sensed some incongruity in the chest area, but the vital signs of all patients were stable. VTEs had developed in the pulmonary artery in one patient, in the superficial femoral vein in one patient, in the popliteal vein in two patients, and in the soleal vein in 18 patients. The Mann–Whitney U-test and Fisher exact probability test showed that, except for preoperative walking disability, none of the parameters showed a significant difference between patients with and without VTE. Risk factors identified in the multivariate logistic regression analysis were preoperative walking disability and age. The prevalence of VTE after spine surgery was relatively high. The most important risk factor for developing postoperative VTE was preoperative walking disability. Gait training during the early postoperative period is required to prevent VTE. PMID:25654385

Estimating the Effect of Targeted Screening Strategies: An Application to Colonoscopy and Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Thomas, Duncan C

2017-07-01

Screening behavior depends on previous screening history and family members' behaviors, which can act as both confounders and intermediate variables on a causal pathway from screening to disease risk. Conventional analyses that adjust for these variables can lead to incorrect inferences about the causal effect of screening if high-risk individuals are more likely to be screened. Analyzing the data in a manner that treats screening as randomized conditional on covariates allows causal parameters to be estimated; inverse probability weighting based on propensity of exposure scores is one such method considered here. I simulated family data under plausible models for the underlying disease process and for screening behavior to assess the performance of alternative methods of analysis and whether a targeted screening approach based on individuals' risk factors would lead to a greater reduction in cancer incidence in the population than a uniform screening policy. Simulation results indicate that there can be a substantial underestimation of the effect of screening on subsequent cancer risk when using conventional analysis approaches, which is avoided by using inverse probability weighting. A large case-control study of colonoscopy and colorectal cancer from Germany shows a strong protective effect of screening, but inverse probability weighting makes this effect even stronger. Targeted screening approaches based on either fixed risk factors or family history yield somewhat greater reductions in cancer incidence with fewer screens needed to prevent one cancer than population-wide approaches, but the differences may not be large enough to justify the additional effort required. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B207.

Emergency Physician Attitudes, Preferences, and Risk Tolerance for Stroke as a Potential Cause of Dizziness Symptoms.

PubMed

Kene, Mamata V; Ballard, Dustin W; Vinson, David R; Rauchwerger, Adina S; Iskin, Hilary R; Kim, Anthony S

2015-09-01

We evaluated emergency physicians' (EP) current perceptions, practice, and attitudes towards evaluating stroke as a cause of dizziness among emergency department patients. We administered a survey to all EPs in a large integrated healthcare delivery system. The survey included clinical vignettes, perceived utility of historical and exam elements, attitudes about the value of and requisite post-test probability of a clinical prediction rule for dizziness. We calculated descriptive statistics and post-test probabilities for such a clinical prediction rule. The response rate was 68% (366/535). Respondents' median practice tenure was eight years (37% female, 92% emergency medicine board certified). Symptom quality and typical vascular risk factors increased suspicion for stroke as a cause of dizziness. Most respondents reported obtaining head computed tomography (CT) (74%). Nearly all respondents used and felt confident using cranial nerve and limb strength testing. A substantial minority of EPs used the Epley maneuver (49%) and HINTS (head-thrust test, gaze-evoked nystagmus, and skew deviation) testing (30%); however, few EPs reported confidence in these tests' bedside application (35% and 16%, respectively). Respondents favorably viewed applying a properly validated clinical prediction rule for assessment of immediate and 30-day stroke risk, but indicated it would have to reduce stroke risk to <0.5% to be clinically useful. EPs report relying on symptom quality, vascular risk factors, simple physical exam elements, and head CT to diagnose stroke as the cause of dizziness, but would find a validated clinical prediction rule for dizziness helpful. A clinical prediction rule would have to achieve a 0.5% post-test stroke probability for acceptability.

Perpetrators of spousal homicide: a review.

PubMed

Aldridge, Mari L; Browne, Kevin D

2003-07-01

It has been argued that individuals who engage in spouse abuse increase their violence toward their partners, which can culminate in the death of either the assaulter or the victim. The aim of this review is to identify risk factors that determine whether an abusive relationship will end in eventual death. An extensive search revealed 22 empirical research studies on risk factors for spousal homicide. The circumstances of spousal homicide are described and salient risk factors are highlighted. In the United Kingdom, 37% of all women were murdered by their current or former intimate partner compared to 6% of men. The most common cause of an intimate partner's death in England and Wales was being attacked with a sharp implement or being strangled. By contrast, the most common cause in the United States for spousal homicide was being shot. Nine major risk factors are found that may help predict the probability of a partner homicide and prevent future victims.

Criticism by community people and poor workplace communication as risk factors for the mental health of local welfare workers after the Great East Japan Earthquake: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Ueda, Ikki; Sakuma, Atsushi; Takahashi, Yoko; Shoji, Wataru; Nagao, Ayami; Abe, Mikika; Suzuki, Yuriko; Matsuoka, Hiroo; Matsumoto, Kazunori

2017-01-01

After a large-scale natural disaster, demand for social welfare services increases, and the mental health of local social welfare workers becomes a matter of great concern because of their dual role as support providers and disaster survivors. We examined whether work-related social stressors, including criticism by community people and poor workplace communication, were associated with increased risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, or psychological distress 20-22 months after the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE; March 11, 2011) in local social welfare workers. Demographic characteristics, disaster-related risk factors (near-death experience, dead/missing family members, loss of housing), and work-related social risk factors (criticism, lack of communication) were obtained 20-22 months after the GEJE from 822 local workers. Questionnaires measured PTSD, depression, and psychological stress. Bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were applied. More local social welfare workers suffered from mental health problems than would be expected. Criticism by community people was significantly associated with probable PTSD and high psychological distress (adjusted odds ratio = 2.31 and 2.55, respectively). Furthermore, lack of workplace communication was associated with probable PTSD, depression, and high psychological distress (adjusted odds ratio = 3.97, 4.27, and 4.65, respectively). Almost 2 years after the disaster, local relief workers still suffered from mental health problems. Because post-disaster work-related social stressors constitute risk factors for these mental health problems, measures to improve working conditions and prevent and treat mental disorders should be a priority.

Migrants in transit: the importance of monitoring HIV risk among migrant flows at the Mexico-US border.

PubMed

Martinez-Donate, Ana P; Hovell, Melbourne F; Rangel, Maria Gudelia; Zhang, Xiao; Sipan, Carol L; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Gonzalez-Fagoaga, J Eduardo

2015-03-01

We conducted a probability-based survey of migrant flows traveling across the Mexico-US border, and we estimated HIV infection rates, risk behaviors, and contextual factors for migrants representing 5 distinct migration phases. Our results suggest that the influence of migration is not uniform across genders or risk factors. By considering the predeparture, transit, and interception phases of the migration process, our findings complement previous studies on HIV among Mexican migrants conducted at the destination and return phases. Monitoring HIV risk among this vulnerable transnational population is critical for better understanding patterns of risk at different points of the migration process and for informing the development of protection policies and programs.

Migrants in Transit: The Importance of Monitoring HIV Risk Among Migrant Flows at the Mexico–US Border

PubMed Central

Martinez-Donate, Ana P.; Hovell, Melbourne F.; Rangel, Maria Gudelia; Zhang, Xiao; Sipan, Carol L.; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Gonzalez-Fagoaga, J. Eduardo

2015-01-01

We conducted a probability-based survey of migrant flows traveling across the Mexico–US border, and we estimated HIV infection rates, risk behaviors, and contextual factors for migrants representing 5 distinct migration phases. Our results suggest that the influence of migration is not uniform across genders or risk factors. By considering the predeparture, transit, and interception phases of the migration process, our findings complement previous studies on HIV among Mexican migrants conducted at the destination and return phases. Monitoring HIV risk among this vulnerable transnational population is critical for better understanding patterns of risk at different points of the migration process and for informing the development of protection policies and programs. PMID:25602882

An investigation of gene-environment interactions between 47 newly identified breast cancer susceptibility loci and environmental risk factors

PubMed Central

Rudolph, Anja; Milne, Roger L.; Truong, Thérèse; Knight, Julia A.; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Behrens, Sabine; Eilber, Ursula; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Munday, Hannah R.; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Brand, Judith S.; Olson, Janet; Vachon, Celine M.; Hallberg, Emily; Castelao, J. Esteban; Carracedo, Angel; Torres, Maria; Li, Jingmei; Humphreys, Keith; Cordina-Duverger, Emilie; Menegaux, Florence; Flyger, Henrik; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Nielsen, Sune F.; Yesilyurt, Betul T.; Floris, Giuseppe; Leunen, Karin; Engelhardt, Ellen G.; Broeks, Annegien; Rutgers, Emiel J.; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Cross, Simon; Reed, Malcolm; Gonzalez-Neira, Anna; Perez, José Ignacio Arias; Provenzano, Elena; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C.; Spurdle, Amanda; Investigators, kConFab; Group, AOCS; Häberle, Lothar; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Ekici, Arif B.; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; McLean, Catriona; Baglietto, Laura; Chanock, Stephen J.; Lissowska, Jolanta; Sherman, Mark E.; Brüning, Thomas; Hamann, Ute; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Orr, Nick; Schoemaker, Minouk; Ashworth, Alan; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kataja, Vesa; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Mannermaa, Arto; Swerdlow, Anthony; Giles, Graham G.; Brenner, Hermann; Fasching, Peter A.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Hopper, John; Benítez, Javier; Cox, Angela; Andrulis, Irene L.; Lambrechts, Diether; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Couch, Fergus; Czene, Kamila; Bojesen, Stig E.; Easton, Doug F.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Guénel, Pascal; Hall, Per; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Chang-Claude, Jenny

2014-01-01

A large genotyping project within the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) recently identified 41 associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and overall breast cancer (BC) risk. We investigated whether the effects of these 41 SNPs, as well as six SNPs associated with estrogen receptor (ER) negative BC risk are modified by 13 environmental risk factors for BC. Data from 22 studies participating in BCAC were pooled, comprising up to 26,633 cases and 30,119 controls. Interactions between SNPs and environmental factors were evaluated using an empirical Bayes-type shrinkage estimator. Six SNPs showed interactions with associated p-values (pint) <1.1×10−3. None of the observed interactions was significant after accounting for multiple testing. The Bayesian False Discovery Probability was used to rank the findings, which indicated three interactions as being noteworthy at 1% prior probability of interaction. SNP rs6828523 was associated with increased ER-negative BC risk in women ≥170cm (OR=1.22, p=0.017), but inversely associated with ER-negative BC risk in women <160cm (OR=0.83, p=0.039, pint=1.9×10−4). The inverse association between rs4808801 and overall BC risk was stronger for women who had had four or more pregnancies (OR=0.85, p=2.0×10−4), and absent in women who had had just one (OR=0.96, p=0.19, pint = 6.1×10−4). SNP rs11242675 was inversely associated with overall BC risk in never/former smokers (OR=0.93, p=2.8×10−5), but no association was observed in current smokers (OR=1.07, p=0.14, pint = 3.4×10−4). In conclusion, recently identified breast cancer susceptibility loci are not strongly modified by established risk factors and the observed potential interactions require confirmation in independent studies. PMID:25227710

Investigation of gene-environment interactions between 47 newly identified breast cancer susceptibility loci and environmental risk factors.

PubMed

Rudolph, Anja; Milne, Roger L; Truong, Thérèse; Knight, Julia A; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Behrens, Sabine; Eilber, Ursula; Bolla, Manjeet K; Wang, Qin; Dennis, Joe; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Munday, Hannah R; Darabi, Hatef; Eriksson, Mikael; Brand, Judith S; Olson, Janet; Vachon, Celine M; Hallberg, Emily; Castelao, J Esteban; Carracedo, Angel; Torres, Maria; Li, Jingmei; Humphreys, Keith; Cordina-Duverger, Emilie; Menegaux, Florence; Flyger, Henrik; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Nielsen, Sune F; Yesilyurt, Betul T; Floris, Giuseppe; Leunen, Karin; Engelhardt, Ellen G; Broeks, Annegien; Rutgers, Emiel J; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Cross, Simon; Reed, Malcolm; Gonzalez-Neira, Anna; Arias Perez, José Ignacio; Provenzano, Elena; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C; Spurdle, Amanda; Häberle, Lothar; Beckmann, Matthias W; Ekici, Arif B; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; McLean, Catriona; Baglietto, Laura; Chanock, Stephen J; Lissowska, Jolanta; Sherman, Mark E; Brüning, Thomas; Hamann, Ute; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Orr, Nick; Schoemaker, Minouk; Ashworth, Alan; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Kataja, Vesa; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Mannermaa, Arto; Swerdlow, Anthony; Giles, Graham G; Brenner, Hermann; Fasching, Peter A; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Hopper, John; Benítez, Javier; Cox, Angela; Andrulis, Irene L; Lambrechts, Diether; Gago-Dominguez, Manuela; Couch, Fergus; Czene, Kamila; Bojesen, Stig E; Easton, Doug F; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Guénel, Pascal; Hall, Per; Pharoah, Paul D P; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Chang-Claude, Jenny

2015-03-15

A large genotyping project within the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) recently identified 41 associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and overall breast cancer (BC) risk. We investigated whether the effects of these 41 SNPs, as well as six SNPs associated with estrogen receptor (ER) negative BC risk are modified by 13 environmental risk factors for BC. Data from 22 studies participating in BCAC were pooled, comprising up to 26,633 cases and 30,119 controls. Interactions between SNPs and environmental factors were evaluated using an empirical Bayes-type shrinkage estimator. Six SNPs showed interactions with associated p-values (pint ) <1.1 × 10(-3) . None of the observed interactions was significant after accounting for multiple testing. The Bayesian False Discovery Probability was used to rank the findings, which indicated three interactions as being noteworthy at 1% prior probability of interaction. SNP rs6828523 was associated with increased ER-negative BC risk in women ≥170 cm (OR = 1.22, p = 0.017), but inversely associated with ER-negative BC risk in women <160 cm (OR = 0.83, p = 0.039, pint = 1.9 × 10(-4) ). The inverse association between rs4808801 and overall BC risk was stronger for women who had had four or more pregnancies (OR = 0.85, p = 2.0 × 10(-4) ), and absent in women who had had just one (OR = 0.96, p = 0.19, pint = 6.1 × 10(-4) ). SNP rs11242675 was inversely associated with overall BC risk in never/former smokers (OR = 0.93, p = 2.8 × 10(-5) ), but no association was observed in current smokers (OR = 1.07, p = 0.14, pint = 3.4 × 10(-4) ). In conclusion, recently identified BC susceptibility loci are not strongly modified by established risk factors and the observed potential interactions require confirmation in independent studies. © 2014 UICC.

Assessing the Risk of Primary Amoebic Meningoencephalitis from Swimming in the Presence of Environmental Naegleria fowleri

PubMed Central

Cabanes, Pierre-André; Wallet, France; Pringuez, Emmanuelle; Pernin, Pierre

2001-01-01

Free-living Naegleria fowleri amoebae cause primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM). Because of the apparent conflict between their ubiquity and the rarity of cases observed, we sought to develop a model characterizing the risk of PAM after swimming as a function of the concentration of N. fowleri. The probability of death from PAM as a function of the number of amoebae inhaled is modeled according to results obtained from animals infected with amoeba strains. The calculation of the probability of inhaling one or more amoebae while swimming is based on a double hypothesis: that the distribution of amoebae in the water follows a Poisson distribution and that the mean quantity of water inhaled while swimming is 10 ml. The risk of PAM for a given concentration of amoebae is then obtained by summing the following products: the probability of inhaling n amoebae × the probability of PAM associated with inhaling these n amoebae. We chose the lognormal model to assess the risk of PAM because it yielded the best analysis of the studentized residuals. Nonetheless, the levels of risk thereby obtained cannot be applied to humans without correction, because they are substantially greater than those indicated by available epidemiologic data. The curve was thus adjusted by a factor calculated with the least-squares method. This provides the PAM risk in humans as a function of the N. fowleri concentration in the river. For example, the risk is 8.5 × 10−8 at a concentration of 10 N. fowleri amoebae per liter. PMID:11425704

Can the Mediterranean diet prevent prostate cancer?

PubMed

Itsiopoulos, Catherine; Hodge, Allison; Kaimakamis, Mary

2009-02-01

Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer in men worldwide. Despite the global importance of this cancer, until recently little was known about risk factors apart from the well-established factors: age, family history and country of birth. The large worldwide variation in prostate cancer risk and increased risk in migrants moving from low to high risk countries provides strong support for modifiable environmental factors. We have based our review on the findings of a systematic review undertaken by an expert panel on behalf of the World Cancer Research Fund and the American Institute for Cancer Research, and new data since then, linking identified foods and nutrients with prostate cancer. Evidence indicates that foods containing lycopene, as well as selenium and foods containing it, probably protect against prostate cancer, and excess consumption of foods or supplements containing calcium are a probable cause of this cancer. The expert panel also concluded that it is unlikely that beta-carotene (whether from foods or supplements) has a substantial effect on the risk of this cancer. A recent review on environmental factors in human prostate cancer also found that there were protective effects of vitamin E, pulses, soy foods and high plasma 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D levels. The Mediterranean diet is abundant in foods that may protect against prostate cancer and is associated with longevity and reduced cardiovascular and cancer mortality. Compared with many Western countries Greece has lower prostate cancer mortality and Greek migrant men in Australia have retained their low risk for prostate cancer. Consumption of a traditional Mediterranean diet, rich in bioactive nutrients, may confer protection to Greek migrant men, and this dietary pattern offers a palatable alternative for prevention of this disease.

Substance abuse and dependency risk: the role of peer perceptions, marijuana involvement, and attitudes toward substance use among college students.

PubMed

Lewis, Todd F; Mobley, A Keith

2010-01-01

Many college students are using substances at levels consistent with Substance Abuse or Dependence, yet little explanation for this phenomenon exits. The aim of this study was to explore a risk factor profile that best separates those with low and high potential for having a substance use disorder (SUD). A discriminant function analysis revealed that participants with a high probability of having a SUD misperceive others' alcohol and marijuana use to a greater extent than those with a low probability of having a SUD. Implications for educators and counselors on college campuses are discussed.

Validation of the Saskatoon Falls Prevention Consortium's Falls Screening and Referral Algorithm

PubMed Central

Lawson, Sara Nicole; Zaluski, Neal; Petrie, Amanda; Arnold, Cathy; Basran, Jenny

2013-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose: To investigate the concurrent validity of the Saskatoon Falls Prevention Consortium's Falls Screening and Referral Algorithm (FSRA). Method: A total of 29 older adults (mean age 77.7 [SD 4.0] y) residing in an independent-living senior's complex who met inclusion criteria completed a demographic questionnaire and the components of the FSRA and Berg Balance Scale (BBS). The FSRA consists of the Elderly Fall Screening Test (EFST) and the Multi-factor Falls Questionnaire (MFQ); it is designed to categorize individuals into low, moderate, or high fall-risk categories to determine appropriate management pathways. A predictive model for probability of fall risk, based on previous research, was used to determine concurrent validity of the FSRI. Results: The FSRA placed 79% of participants into the low-risk category, whereas the predictive model found the probability of fall risk to range from 0.04 to 0.74, with a mean of 0.35 (SD 0.25). No statistically significant correlation was found between the FSRA and the predictive model for probability of fall risk (Spearman's ρ=0.35, p=0.06). Conclusion: The FSRA lacks concurrent validity relative to to a previously established model of fall risk and appears to over-categorize individuals into the low-risk group. Further research on the FSRA as an adequate tool to screen community-dwelling older adults for fall risk is recommended. PMID:24381379

Risk Assessment on Constructors during Over-water Riprap Based on Entropy Weight and FAHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tongqing; Li, Liang; Liang, Zelong; Mao, Tian; Shao, Weifeng

2017-07-01

Being aimed at waterway regulation engineering, there exist risks of over-water riprap for constructors which keeps uncertainty and complexity. For the purpose of evaluating the possibility and consequence, this paper utilizes fuzzy analytic hierarchy process with abbreviation of FAHP to do empowerment on the related risk indicators, constructs FAHP under entropy weight and establishes relevant evaluation factor set and evaluation language for constructors during over-water riprap construction process. Through doing risk probability estimation and risk consequence size evaluation on the factor of constructors, this paper introduces this model into risk analysis on constructors during over-water riprap of Ching River waterway regulation project. Results show that evaluation of this method is so credible that it could be utilized in practical engineering.

Gambling, Delay, and Probability Discounting in Adults With and Without ADHD.

PubMed

Dai, Zhijie; Harrow, Sarah-Eve; Song, Xianwen; Rucklidge, Julia J; Grace, Randolph C

2016-11-01

We investigated the relationship between impulsivity, as measured by delay and probability discounting, and gambling-related cognitions and behavior in adults with and without ADHD. Adults who met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed.; DSM-IV) diagnostic criteria for ADHD (n = 31) and controls (n = 29) were recruited from the community. All completed an interview that included an assessment of psychiatric disorders, gambling questionnaires, and simulated gambling, delay, and probability discounting tasks. The ADHD group was more likely to meet the criteria for problem gambling and was more impulsive than controls based on a composite discounting measure. ADHD symptoms were correlated with gambling-related cognitions and behavior. Probability, but not delay discounting, explained significant variance in gambling-related measures after controlling for ADHD symptoms. Results confirm an association between adult ADHD and gambling, and suggest that the facets of impulsivity related to risk proneness may be an independent risk factor for problem gambling in this population. © The Author(s) 2013.

Cardiovascular risk factors predictive for survival and morbidity-free survival in the oldest-old Framingham Heart Study participants.

PubMed

Terry, Dellara F; Pencina, Michael J; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Murabito, Joanne M; Wolf, Philip A; Hayes, Margaret Kelly; Levy, Daniel; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Benjamin, Emelia J

2005-11-01

To examine whether midlife cardiovascular risk factors predict survival and survival free of major comorbidities to the age of 85. Prospective community-based cohort study. Framingham Heart Study, Massachusetts. Two thousand five hundred thirty-one individuals (1,422 women) who attended at least two examinations between the ages of 40 and 50. Risk factors were classified at routine examinations performed between the ages of 40 and 50. Stepwise sex-adjusted logistic regression models predicting the outcomes of survival and survival free of morbidity to age 85 were selected from the following risk factors: systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, glucose intolerance, cigarette smoking, education, body mass index, physical activity index, pulse pressure, antihypertensive medication, and electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy. More than one-third of the study sample survived to age 85, and 22% of the original study sample survived free of morbidity. Lower midlife blood pressure and total cholesterol levels, absence of glucose intolerance, nonsmoking status, higher educational attainment, and female sex predicted overall and morbidity-free survival. The predicted probability of survival to age 85 fell in the presence of accumulating risk factors: 37% for men with no risk factors to 2% with all five risk factors and 65% for women with no risk factors to 14% with all five risk factors. Lower levels of key cardiovascular risk factors in middle age predicted overall survival and major morbidity-free survival to age 85. Recognizing and modifying these factors may delay, if not prevent, age-related morbidity and mortality.

Retrospective and current risks of mercury to panthers in the Florida Everglades.

PubMed

Barron, Mace G; Duvall, Stephanie E; Barron, Kyle J

2004-04-01

Florida panthers are an endangered species inhabiting south Florida. Hg has been suggested as a causative factor for low populations and some reported panther deaths, but a quantitative assessment of risks has never been performed. This study quantitatively evaluated retrospective (pre-1992) and current (2002) risks of chronic dietary Hg exposures to panthers in the Florida Everglades. A probabilistic assessment of Hg risks was performed using a dietary exposure model and Latin Hypercube sampling that incorporated the variability and uncertainty in ingestion rate, diet, body weight, and mercury exposure of panthers. Hazard quotients (HQs) for retrospective risks ranged from less than 0.1-20, with a 46% probability of exceeding chronic dietary thresholds for methylmercury. Retrospective risks of developing clinical symptoms, including ataxia and convulsions, had an HQ range of <0.1-5.4 with a 17% probability of exceeding an HQ of 1. Current risks were substantially lower (4% probability of exceedences; HQ range <0.1-3.5) because of an estimated 70-90% decline in Hg exposure to panthers over the last decade. Under worst case conditions of panthers consuming only raccoons from the most contaminated area of the Everglades, current risks of developing clinical symptoms that may lead to death was 4.6%. Current risks of mercury poisoning of panthers with a diversified diet was 0.1% (HQ range of <0.1-1.4). The results of this assessment indicate that past Hg exposures likely adversely affected panthers in the Everglades, but current risks of Hg are low.

Anxious and depressive symptoms in the French Asbestos-Related Diseases Cohort: risk factors and self-perception of risk.

PubMed

Mounchetrou Njoya, Ibrahim; Paris, Christophe; Dinet, Jerome; Luc, Amandine; Lighezzolo-Alnot, Joelle; Pairon, Jean-Claude; Thaon, Isabelle

2017-04-01

Asbestos is known to be an independent risk factor for lung and pleural cancers. However, to date, little attention has been paid to the psychological effects of asbestos exposure among exposed subjects. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of anxious and depressive symptoms among >2000 French participants of the Asbestos-Related Diseases Cohort (ARDCO), 6 years after their inclusion, to identify the risk factors associated with those anxious and depressive symptoms and to evaluate the impact of the asbestos-risk perception. The ARDCO was constituted in four regions of France between October 2003 and December 2005, by including former asbestos workers. Between 2011 and 2012, participants of the ARDCO program were invited to undergo another chest CT scan 6 years after the previous scan. Participants were asked to complete questionnaires including asbestos exposure assessment, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), asbestos-risk perception and self-perception of asbestos-related diseases. Among the 2225 participants, 2210 fully completed questionnaires were collected and analyzed. The prevalence of symptoms of probable anxiety and probable depression was 19.7% and 9.9%, respectively. The risk of anxious and depressive symptoms was independently associated with self-perception of the intensity of asbestos exposure, asbestos-risk perception and self-perception of asbestos-related diseases. The results obtained in this large study confirm that previously asbestos-exposed subjects are likely to develop anxious and depressive symptoms. Finally, implications related to the prevention of anxiety and depression among asbestos-exposed workers is discussed. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for measles death: Kyegegwa District, western Uganda, February-September, 2015.

PubMed

Mafigiri, Richardson; Nsubuga, Fred; Ario, Alex Riolexus

2017-07-03

On 18 August 2015, Kyegegwa District reported eight deaths during a measles outbreak to the Uganda Ministry of Health (MoH). We investigated this death cluster to verify the cause, identify risk factors, and inform public health interventions. We defined a probable measles case as onset of fever and generalised rash in a Kyegegwa District resident from 1 February - 15 September 2015, plus ≥1 of the following: coryza, conjunctivitis, and cough. A confirmed measles case was a probable case with measles-specific IgM positivity. A measles death was a death of a probable or confirmed case-person. We conducted an active case-finding to identify measles patients who survived or died. In a case-control study, we compared risk factors between 16 measles patients who died (cases) and 48 who survived (controls), matched by age (±4 years) and village of residence. We identified 94 probable measles cases, 10 (11%) were confirmed by positive measles-specific IgM. Of the 64 probable measles patients aged <5 years, 16 died (case-fatality rate = 25%). In the case-control study, no history of vaccination against measles was found in 94% (15/16) among the case-persons (i.e., measles patients who died) and 54% (26/48) among the controls (i.e., measles patients who survived) (OR M-H  = 12; 95% CI = 1.6-104), while 56% (9/16) of case-persons and 67% (17/48) of controls (OR M-H  = 2.3; 95% CI =0.74-7.4) did not receive vitamin A supplementation during illness. 63% (10/16) among the case-persons and 6.3% (3/48) of the controls (OR M-H  = 33; 95% CI = 6.8-159) were not treated for measles illness at a health facility (a proxy for more appropriate treatment), while 38% (6/16) of the case-persons and 25% (12/48) of the controls (OR M-H  = 2.5; 95% CI = 0.67-9.1) were malnourished. Lack of vaccination and no treatment in a health facility increased the risk for measles deaths. The one-dose measles vaccination currently in the national vaccination schedule had a protective effect against measles death. We recommended enhancing measles vaccination and adherence to measles treatment guidelines.

Premarital first births: The influence of the timing of sexual onset versus post-onset risks in the United States.

PubMed

Wu, Lawrence L; Martin, Steven P

2015-01-01

Motivated by long-standing debates between abstinence proponents and sceptics, we examine how socio-economic factors influence premarital first births via: (i) age at first sexual intercourse and (ii) the risk of a premarital first birth following the onset of sexual activity. Factors associated with an earlier age at first intercourse will imply more premarital first births owing to increased exposure to risk, but many of these same factors will also be associated with higher risks of a premarital first birth following onset. Our analyses confirm previous findings that women from disadvantaged backgrounds are younger at first intercourse and have higher premarital first-birth risks than women from more advantaged backgrounds. However, differences in onset timing have a strikingly smaller influence on premarital first-birth probabilities than do differences in post-onset risks. Our findings thus suggest that premarital first births result primarily from differences in post-onset risk behaviours as opposed to differences in onset timing.

Premarital first births: The influence of the timing of sexual onset versus post-onset risks in the United States

PubMed Central

Wu, Lawrence L.; Martin, Steven P.

2015-01-01

Motivated by long-standing debates between abstinence proponents and skeptics, we examine how socioeconomic factors influence premarital first births via: (1) age at first sexual intercourse and (2) the risk of a premarital first birth following onset. Factors associated with an earlier age at first intercourse will imply more premarital first births due to increased exposure to risk, but many of these same factors will also be associated with higher risks of a premarital first birth following onset. Our analyses confirm previous findings that women from disadvantaged backgrounds are younger at first intercourse and have higher premarital first birth risks relative to those from more advantaged backgrounds. However, differences in onset timing have a strikingly smaller influence on premarital first birth probabilities than do differences in post-onset risks. Our findings thus suggest that premarital first births result primarily from differences in post-onset risk behaviors as opposed to differences in onset timing. PMID:26585183

The Prevalence of HIV Risk Behaviors among Felony Drug Court Participants

PubMed Central

Festinger, David S.; Dugosh, Karen L.; Metzger, David S.; Marlowe, Douglas B.

2013-01-01

[15] HIV Risk Behaviors in Drug Court A small percentage of participants in a large metropolitan felony Drug Court engaged in high-risk injection drug use, but a large percentage engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors. [16] HIV Risk Factors in Drug Court HIV risk behaviors were associated with being male, African–American, and younger. [17] Geographic Risk for HIV A large proportion of Drug Court participants resided in areas of the city with a high prevalence of persons living with HIV/AIDS, thus heightening the probability of exposure to the virus. PMID:25309974

[Maternal depressive symptomatology in México: National prevalence, care, and population risk profiles].

PubMed

de Castro, Filipa; Place, Jean Marie; Villalobos, Aremis; Allen-Leigh, Betania

2015-01-01

This study estimates the prevalence of depressive symptomatology (DS) in women with children younger than five years of age, examines detection and care rates and probabilities of developing DS based on specific risk profiles. The sample consists of 7 187 women with children younger than five drawn from the Ensanut 2012. DS prevalence is 19.91%, which means at least 4.6 million children live with mothers who experience depressive symptoms indicative of moderate to severe depression. Rates of detection (17.06%) and care (15.19%) for depression are low. DS is associated with violence (OR=2.34; IC95% 1.06-5.15), having ≥4 children, having a female baby, older age of the last child, low birth weight, food insecurity, and sexual debut <15 years old (p<0.01). Accumulated probability of DS, taking into consideration all risk factors measured, is 69.76%. It could be reduced to 13.21% through prevention efforts focused on eliminating violence, food insecurity, bias against having a female baby, and low birth weight. DS is a compelling public health problem in Mexico associated with a well-defined set of risk factors that warrant attention and timely detection at various levels of care.

Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grezio, A.; Gasparini, P.; Marzocchi, W.; Patera, A.; Tinti, S.

2012-01-01

We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

Penetrating or stricturing diseases are the major determinants of time to first and repeat resection surgery in Crohn's disease.

PubMed

Pittet, Valerie; Rogler, Gerhard; Michetti, Pierre; Fournier, Nicolas; Vader, John-Paul; Schoepfer, Alain; Mottet, Christian; Burnand, Bernard; Froehlich, Florian

2013-01-01

About 80% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) require bowel resection and up to 65% will undergo a second resection within 10 years. This study reports clinical risk factors for resection surgery (RS) and repeat RS. Retrospective cohort study, using data from patients included in the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort. Cox regression analyses were performed to estimate rates of initial and repeated RS. Out of 1,138 CD cohort patients, 417 (36.6%) had already undergone RS at the time of inclusion. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the probability of being free of RS was 65% after 10 years, 42% after 20 years, and 23% after 40 years. Perianal involvement (PA) did not modify this probability to a significant extent. The main adjusted risk factors for RS were smoking at diagnosis (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.33; p = 0.006), stricturing with vs. without PA (HR = 4.91 vs. 4.11; p < 0.001) or penetrating disease with vs. without PA (HR = 3.53 vs. 4.58; p < 0.001). The risk factor for repeat RS was penetrating disease with vs. without PA (HR = 3.17 vs. 2.24; p < 0.05). The risk of RS was confirmed to be very high for CD in our cohort. Smoking status at diagnosis, but mostly penetrating and stricturing diseases increase the risk of RS. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

[The 10-year stroke risk in hypertensive outpatients combined with diabetes in cardiovascular clinics of 36 tertiary hospitals in China].

PubMed

Bao, Bingnan; Zhou, Yingsheng; Liu, Jun; Huo, Yong

2014-12-01

To assess the estimated 10-year risk of stroke among hypertensive outpatients known with diabetes from cardiovascular clinics of 36 tertiary hospitals in China and to analyze the characteristics of the risk factors and the 10-year risk of stroke between the southern and the northern patients. A multi-center prevalence survey was conducted from October 2011 to June 2012. Hypertensive outpatients known with diabetes were enrolled from cardiovascular clinics of 36 tertiary hospitals in China. A total of 15 914 outpatients were included in the final analysis. The 10-year probability of stroke was evaluated by the Framingham stroke risk profile. According to the 10-year probability of stroke, patients were divided into low risk ( ≤ 5%), medium risk (6%∼9%) and high risk ( ≥ 10%). (1) Of all the hypertensive outpatients known with diabetes, the mean age was (64.6 ± 10.1) years and the mean systolic pressure was (138.7 ± 19.3) mmHg (1 mmHg = 0.133 kPa). Among them, 7.4% with atrial fibrillation, 11.2% with left ventricular hypertrophy, 57.2% with cardiovascular diseases, 17.1% smokers and 37.0% using mono-hypoglycemic agent. The southern patients who were older with more smokers had higher proportions of men and left ventricular hypertrophy, lower levels of systolic blood pressure, and lower proportions of other cardiovascular diseases than those of the northern patients ( all P < 0.05). (2) The mean 10-year probability of stroke was (20.9 ± 16.2) %. The southern patients had a higher mean 10-year probability of stroke than that of the northern patients [(22.4 ± 17.1) % vs (19.7 ± 15.2) %] (P < 0.01) . After adjusted by age and sex, the southern patients still had a higher mean 10-year probability of stroke (P < 0.05) . (3) All the patients had 7.7% with low risk, 17.4% with medium risk, and 74.9% with high risk. The southern patients had lower proportions of low and medium risk than those of the northern patients (6.7% vs 8.4%, 15.5% vs 18.9%), but had a higher proportion of high risk than that of the northern patients (77.7% vs 72.7%, all P < 0.01). Among the hypertensive outpatients known with diabetes from the cardiovascular clinics of our study, most of them were at the 10-year high risk of stroke. The southern patients had a higher mean 10-year probability of stroke than that of the northern patients.

Commentary: How can family-based quasi-experimental designs and national registers be used to address confounding in risk factor studies of psychopathology? A reflection on Obel et al. (2016).

PubMed

Larsson, Henrik

2016-04-01

Standard observational studies have reported a robust correlation between maternal smoking during pregnancy and risk of ADHD in offspring. In the accompanying article, Obel et al. used sibling-comparisons to explore the extent to which unmeasured familial confounding explains this association. This commentary highlights three important implications of the study. At a general level, Obel et al. illustrates how (1) family-based quasi-experimental designs and (2) national registers can be used to address confounding in risk factor studies of psychopathology. At a more specific level, the study suggests that maternal smoking during pregnancy is probably not a causal risk factor for ADHD. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Impact of Replacing the Pooled Cohort Equation With Other Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores on Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]).

PubMed

Qureshi, Waqas T; Michos, Erin D; Flueckiger, Peter; Blaha, Michael; Sandfort, Veit; Herrington, David M; Burke, Gregory; Yeboah, Joseph

2016-09-01

The increase in statin eligibility by the new cholesterol guidelines is mostly driven by the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) criterion (≥7.5% 10-year PCE). The impact of replacing the PCE with either the modified Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) on assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment and statin eligibility remains unknown. We assessed the comparative benefits of using the PCE, FRS, and SCORE for ASCVD risk assessment in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Of 6,815 participants, 654 (mean age 61.4 ± 10.3; 47.1% men; 37.1% whites; 27.2% blacks; 22.3% Hispanics; 12.0% Chinese-Americans) were included in analysis. Area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis were used to compare the 3 risk scores. Decision curve analysis is the plot of net benefit versus probability thresholds; net benefit = true positive rate - (false positive rate × weighting factor). Weighting factor = Threshold probability/1 - threshold probability. After a median of 8.6 years, 342 (6.0%) ASCVD events (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, fatal or nonfatal stroke) occurred. All 4 risk scores had acceptable discriminative ability for incident ASCVD events; (AUC [95% CI] PCE: 0.737 [0.713 to 0.762]; FRS: 0.717 [0.691 to 0.743], SCORE (high risk) 0.722 [0.696 to 0.747], and SCORE (low risk): 0.721 [0.696 to 0.746]. At the ASCVD risk threshold recommended for statin eligibility for primary prevention (≥7.5%), the PCE provides the best net benefit. Replacing the PCE with the SCORE (high), SCORE (low) and FRS results in a 2.9%, 8.9%, and 17.1% further increase in statin eligibility. The PCE has the best discrimination and net benefit for primary ASCVD risk assessment in a US-based multiethnic cohort compared with the SCORE or the FRS. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Scoring System to Determine Risk of Delayed Bleeding After Endoscopic Mucosal Resection of Large Colorectal Lesions.

PubMed

Albéniz, Eduardo; Fraile, María; Ibáñez, Berta; Alonso-Aguirre, Pedro; Martínez-Ares, David; Soto, Santiago; Gargallo, Carla Jerusalén; Ramos Zabala, Felipe; Álvarez, Marco Antonio; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Joaquín; Múgica, Fernando; Nogales, Óscar; Herreros de Tejada, Alberto; Redondo, Eduardo; Guarner-Argente, Carlos; Pin, Noel; León-Brito, Helena; Pardeiro, Remedios; López-Roses, Leopoldo; Rodríguez-Téllez, Manuel; Jiménez, Alejandra; Martínez-Alcalá, Felipe; García, Orlando; de la Peña, Joaquín; Ono, Akiko; Alberca de Las Parras, Fernando; Pellisé, María; Rivero, Liseth; Saperas, Esteban; Pérez-Roldán, Francisco; Pueyo Royo, Antonio; Eguaras Ros, Javier; Zúñiga Ripa, Alba; Concepción-Martín, Mar; Huelin-Álvarez, Patricia; Colán-Hernández, Juan; Cubiella, Joaquín; Remedios, David; Bessa I Caserras, Xavier; López-Viedma, Bartolomé; Cobian, Julyssa; González-Haba, Mariano; Santiago, José; Martínez-Cara, Juan Gabriel; Valdivielso, Eduardo

2016-08-01

After endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) of colorectal lesions, delayed bleeding is the most common serious complication, but there are no guidelines for its prevention. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with delayed bleeding that required medical attention after discharge until day 15 and develop a scoring system to identify patients at risk. We performed a prospective study of 1214 consecutive patients with nonpedunculated colorectal lesions 20 mm or larger treated by EMR (n = 1255) at 23 hospitals in Spain, from February 2013 through February 2015. Patients were examined 15 days after the procedure, and medical data were collected. We used the data to create a delayed bleeding scoring system, and assigned a weight to each risk factor based on the β parameter from multivariate logistic regression analysis. Patients were classified as being at low, average, or high risk for delayed bleeding. Delayed bleeding occurred in 46 cases (3.7%, 95% confidence interval, 2.7%-4.9%). In multivariate analysis, factors associated with delayed bleeding included age ≥75 years (odds ratio [OR], 2.36; P < .01), American Society of Anesthesiologist classification scores of III or IV (OR, 1.90; P ≤ .05), aspirin use during EMR (OR, 3.16; P < .05), right-sided lesions (OR, 4.86; P < .01), lesion size ≥40 mm (OR, 1.91; P ≤ .05), and a mucosal gap not closed by hemoclips (OR, 3.63; P ≤ .01). We developed a risk scoring system based on these 6 variables that assigned patients to the low-risk (score, 0-3), average-risk (score, 4-7), or high-risk (score, 8-10) categories with a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.83). In these groups, the probabilities of delayed bleeding were 0.6%, 5.5%, and 40%, respectively. The risk of delayed bleeding after EMR of large colorectal lesions is 3.7%. We developed a risk scoring system based on 6 factors that determined the risk for delayed bleeding (receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.77). The factors most strongly associated with delayed bleeding were right-sided lesions, aspirin use, and mucosal defects not closed by hemoclips. Patients considered to be high risk (score, 8-10) had a 40% probability of delayed bleeding. Copyright © 2016 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of youth, family, peer and neighborhood risk factors on developmental trajectories of risk involvement from early through middle adolescence.

PubMed

Wang, Bo; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Marshall, Sharon; Chen, Xinguang; Stanton, Bonita

2014-04-01

Few studies have analyzed the development course beginning in pre-/early adolescence of overall engagement in health-risk behaviors and associated social risk factors that place individuals in different health-risk trajectories through mid-adolescence. The current longitudinal study identified 1276 adolescents in grade six and followed them for three years to investigate their developmental trajectories of risk behaviors and to examine the association of personal and social risk factors with each trajectory. Group-based trajectory modeling was applied to identify distinctive trajectory patterns of risk behaviors. Multivariate multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the effects of the personal and social risk factors on adolescents' trajectories. Three gender-specific behavioral trajectories were identified for males (55.3% low-risk, 37.6% moderate-risk, increasing, and 7.1% high-risk, increasing) and females (41.4% no-risk, 53.4% low-risk, increasing and 5.2% moderate to high-risk, increasing). Sensation-seeking, family, peer, and neighborhood factors at baseline predicted following the moderate-risk, increasing trajectory and the high-risk, increasing trajectory in males; these risk factors predicted following the moderate to high-risk, increasing trajectory in females. The presence of all three social risk factors (high-risk neighborhood, high-risk peers and low parental monitoring) had a dramatic impact on increased probability of being in a high-risk trajectory group. These findings highlight the developmental significance of early personal and social risk factors on subsequent risk behaviors in early to middle adolescence. Future adolescent health behavior promotion interventions might consider offering additional prevention resources to pre- and early adolescent youth who are exposed to multiple contextual risk factors (even in the absence of risk behaviors) or youth who are early-starters of delinquency and substance use behaviors in early adolescence. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

To run or not to run: a post-meniscectomy qualitative risk analysis model for osteoarthritis when considering a return to recreational running.

PubMed

Baumgarten, Bob

2007-01-01

The increased likelihood of osteoarthritic change in the tibiofemoral joint following meniscectomy is well documented. This awareness often leads medical practitioners to advise patients previously engaged in recreational running who have undergone meniscectomy to cease all recreational running. This literature review examines the following questions: 1) Is there evidence to demonstrate that runners, post-meniscectomy, incur a great enough risk for early degenerative OA to cease all running? 2) Does the literature yield risk factors for early OA that would guide a physical therapist with regard to advising the post-meniscectomy patient contemplating a return to recreational running? Current literature related to meniscal structure and function, etiology and definition of osteoarthritis, methods for assessing osteoarthritis, relationship between running and osteoarthritis, and relationship between meniscectomy and osteoarthritis are reviewed. This review finds that while the probability for early osteoarthritis in the post-meniscectomy population is substantial, it is a probability and not a certainty. To help guide a physical therapist with regard to advising the patient for a safe return to running following a meniscectomy, a qualitative risk assessment based on identified risk factors for osteoarthritis in both the running and the post-meniscectomy populations is proposed.

Exploring the Specifications of Spatial Adjacencies and Weights in Bayesian Spatial Modeling with Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive Priors in a Small-area Study of Fall Injuries

PubMed Central

Law, Jane

2016-01-01

Intrinsic conditional autoregressive modeling in a Bayeisan hierarchical framework has been increasingly applied in small-area ecological studies. This study explores the specifications of spatial structure in this Bayesian framework in two aspects: adjacency, i.e., the set of neighbor(s) for each area; and (spatial) weight for each pair of neighbors. Our analysis was based on a small-area study of falling injuries among people age 65 and older in Ontario, Canada, that was aimed to estimate risks and identify risk factors of such falls. In the case study, we observed incorrect adjacencies information caused by deficiencies in the digital map itself. Further, when equal weights was replaced by weights based on a variable of expected count, the range of estimated risks increased, the number of areas with probability of estimated risk greater than one at different probability thresholds increased, and model fit improved. More importantly, significance of a risk factor diminished. Further research to thoroughly investigate different methods of variable weights; quantify the influence of specifications of spatial weights; and develop strategies for better defining spatial structure of a map in small-area analysis in Bayesian hierarchical spatial modeling is recommended. PMID:29546147

Mortality from Circulatory System Diseases among French Uranium Miners: A Nested Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Drubay, Damien; Caër-Lorho, Sylvaine; Laroche, Pierre; Laurier, Dominique; Rage, Estelle

2015-05-01

A significant association has been observed between radon exposure and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) mortality among French uranium miners, but risk factors for circulatory system diseases (CSD) have not been previously considered. We conducted new analyses in the recently updated (through 2007) French cohort of uranium miners (n = 5,086), which included 442 deaths from CSD, 167 of them from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and 105 from CeVD. A nested case-control study was then set up to collect and investigate the influence of these risk factors on the relationships between mortality from CSD and occupational external gamma ray and internal ionizing radiation exposure (radon and long-lived radionuclides) in this updated cohort. The nested case-control study included miners first employed after 1955, still employed in 1976 and followed up through 2007. Individual information about CSD risk factors was collected from medical files for the 76 deaths from CSD (including 26 from IHD and 16 from CeVD) and 237 miners who had not died of CSD by the end of follow-up. The exposure-risk relationships were assessed with a Cox proportional hazard model weighted by the inverse sampling probability. A significant increase in all CSD and CeVD mortality risks associated with radon exposure was observed in the total cohort [hazard ratios: HRCSD/100 working level months (WLM) = 1.11, 95% confidence interval (1.01; 1.22) and HRCeVD/100 WLM = 1.25 (1.09; 1.43), respectively]. A nonsignificant exposure-risk relationship was observed for every type of cumulative ionizing radiation exposure and every end point [e.g., HRCSD/100WLM = 1.43 (0.71; 2.87)]. The adjustment for each CSD risk factor did not substantially change the exposure-risk relationships. When the model was adjusted for overweight, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia and smoking status, the HR/100WLM for CSD, for example, was equal to 1.21 (0.54; 2.75); and when it was adjusted for risk factors selected with the Akaike information criterion, it was equal to 1.44 (0.66; 3.14). To our knowledge, this is the first study to use a uranium miner cohort to consider the major standard CSD risk factors in assessing the relationships between ionizing radiation exposure and the risk of death from these diseases. These results suggest that the significant relationship between CeVD risk and radon exposure observed in the total French cohort is probably not affected by the CSD risk factors. Extending the collection of information about CSD risk factors to a larger subsample would be useful to confirm this result.

Relationships among parental monitoring and sensation seeking on the development of substance use disorder among college students.

PubMed

Kaynak, Ovgü; Meyers, Kathleen; Caldeira, Kimberly M; Vincent, Kathryn B; Winters, Ken C; Arria, Amelia M

2013-01-01

Substance use disorder is a serious health problem that tends to manifest in late adolescence. Attempting to influence targetable risk and protective factors holds promise for prevention and treatment. Survey data from 1253 college students (48.5% male, 26.9% non-White) were used to investigate the independent and combined effects of two prominent factors, sensation seeking and parental monitoring, on the probability of alcohol and/or cannabis dependence during the first year of college. In multivariate analyses that controlled for high school use, gender, race, mother's education, and importance of religion, retrospective reports by the student of parental behavior during the last year of high school indicated that higher levels of parental monitoring had a direct effect on reducing risk for alcohol dependence during the first year of college, but not on cannabis dependence. High levels of sensation seeking were associated with increased risk for both alcohol and cannabis dependence. No interaction effects were found. The results extend prior findings by highlighting influences of pre-college parental monitoring and sensation seeking on the probability of alcohol and/or cannabis dependence during the first year of college. The findings also suggest that these two factors are useful in identifying college students at high risk for alcohol and/or cannabis dependence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk profile, management, and outcomes of patients with venous thromboembolism attended in Spanish Emergency Departments: The ESPHERIA registry.

PubMed

Jimenez, Sonia; Ruiz-Artacho, Pedro; Merlo, Marta; Suero, Coral; Antolin, Albert; Casal, José Ramón; Sanchez, Marta; Ortega-Duarte, Alejandra; Genis, Mar; Piñera, Pascual

2017-12-01

The objective of this study was to determine the clinical profile of and diagnostic and therapeutic approach to patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) in Spanish Emergency Departments (EDs). Risk factors, adherence to clinical practice guidelines, and outcomes were also evaluated.Patients with VTE diagnosed in 53 Spanish EDs were prospectively and consecutively included. Demographic data, comorbidities, risk factors for VTE, index event characteristics, hemorrhagic risk, and mortality were evaluated. Adherence to clinical practice guidelines was assessed based on clinical probability scales, requests for determination of D-dimer, use of anticoagulant treatment before confirmation of diagnosis, and assessment of bleeding and prognostic risk. Recurrence, bleeding, and death during admission and at 30, 90, and 180 days after diagnosis in the EDs were recorded.From 549,840 ED visits made over a mean period of 40 days, 905 patients were diagnosed with VTE (incidence 1.6 diagnoses per 1000 visits). The final analysis included 801 patients, of whom 49.8% had pulmonary embolism. The most frequent risk factors for VTE were age (≥70 years), obesity, and new immobility. Clinical probability, prognosis, and bleeding risk scales were recorded in only 7.6%, 7.5%, and 1% of cases, respectively. D-dimer was determined in 87.2% of patients with a high clinical probability of VTE, and treatment was initiated before confirmation in only 35.9% of these patients. In patients with pulmonary embolism, 31.3% had a low risk of VTE. Overall, 98.7% of patients with pulmonary embolism and 50.2% of patients with deep venous thrombosis were admitted. During follow-up, total bleeding was more frequent than recurrences: the rates of any bleeding event were 4.4%, 3.9%, 5.3%, and 3.5% at admission and at 30 and 90, and 180 days, respectively; the rates of VTE recurrence were 2.3%, 1.3%, 1.7%, and 0.6%, respectively. Mortality rates were 3.4%, 3.1%, 4.1%, and 2.6% during hospitalization and at 30, 90, and 180 days, respectively.VTE had a substantial impact on Spanish EDs. The clinical presentation and risk profile for the development of VTE in patients diagnosed in the EDs was similar to that recorded in previous studies. During follow-up, bleeding (overall) was more frequent than recurrences. Adherence to clinical practice guidelines could improve significantly.

Unintentional asphyxia, SIDS, and medically explained deaths: a descriptive study of outcomes of child death review (CDR) investigations following sudden unexpected death in infancy.

PubMed

Garstang, Joanna; Ellis, Catherine; Griffiths, Frances; Sidebotham, Peter

2016-12-01

A comprehensive child death review (CDR) program was introduced in England and Wales in 2008, but as yet data have only been analyzed at a local level, limiting the learning from deaths. The aim of this study is to describe the profile of causes and risk factors for sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) as determined by the new CDR program. This was a descriptive outcome study using data from child death overview panel Form C for SUDI cases dying during 2010-2012 in the West Midlands region of England. The main outcome measures were: cause of death, risk factors and potential preventability of death, and determination of deaths probably due to unintentional asphyxia. Data were obtained for 65/70 (93 %) SUDI cases. 20/65 (31 %) deaths were initially categorized as due to medical causes; 21/65 (32 %) as SIDS; and 24/65 (37 %) as undetermined. Reanalysis suggested that 2/21 SIDS and 7/24 undetermined deaths were probably due to unintentional asphyxia, with 6 of these involving co-sleeping and excessive parental alcohol consumption. Deaths classified as "undetermined" had significantly higher total family and environmental risk factor scores (mean 2.6, 95 % CI 2.0-3.3) compared to those classified as SIDS (mean 1.6, 95 % CI 1.2-1.9), or medical causes for death (mean 1.1, 95 % CI 0.8-1.3). 9/20 (47 %) of medical deaths, 19/21 (90 %) SIDS, and 23/24 (96 %) undetermined deaths were considered to be potentially preventable. There were inadequacies in medical provision identified in 5/20 (25 %) of medically explained deaths. The CDR program results in detailed information about risk factors for SUDI cases but failed to recognize deaths probably due to unintentional asphyxia. The misclassification of probable unintentional asphyxial deaths and SIDS as "undetermined deaths" is likely to limit learning from these deaths and inhibit prevention strategies. Many SUDI occurred in families with mental illness, substance misuse and chaotic lifestyles and most in unsafe sleep environments. This knowledge could be used to better target safe sleep advice for vulnerable families and prevent SUDI in the future.

Epidemiology of hip fracture and the development of FRAX in Ukraine.

PubMed

Povoroznyuk, V V; Grygorieva, N V; Kanis, J A; Ev, McCloskey; Johansson, H; Harvey, N C; Korzh, M O; Strafun, S S; Vaida, V M; Klymovytsky, F V; Vlasenko, R O; Forosenko, V S

2017-12-01

A country-specific FRAX model has been developed for the Ukraine to replace the Austrian model hitherto used. Comparison of the Austrian and Ukrainian models indicated that the former markedly overestimated fracture probability whilst correctly stratifying risk. FRAX has been used to estimate osteoporotic fracture risk since 2009. Rather than using a surrogate model, the Austrian version of FRAX was adopted for clinical practice. Since then, data have become available on hip fracture incidence in the Ukraine. The incidence of hip fracture was computed from three regional estimates and used to construct a country-specific FRAX model for the Ukraine. The model characteristics were compared with those of the Austrian FRAX model, previously used in Ukraine by using all combinations of six risk factors and eight values of BMD (total number of combinations =512). The relationship between the probabilities of a major fracture derived from the two versions of FRAX indicated a close correlation between the two estimates (r > 0.95). The Ukrainian version, however, gave markedly lower probabilities than the Austrian model at all ages. For a major osteoporotic fracture, the median probability was lower by 25% at age 50 years and the difference increased with age. At the age of 60, 70 and 80 years, the median value was lower by 30, 53 and 65%, respectively. Similar findings were observed for men and for hip fracture. The Ukrainian FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Ukrainian population and help to guide decisions about treatment. The study also indicates that the use of surrogate FRAX models or models from other countries, whilst correctly stratifying risk, may markedly over or underestimate the absolute fracture probability.

Effects of osteoporosis on AIS 3+ injury risk in motor-vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Rupp, Jonathan D; Flannagan, Carol A C; Hoff, Carrie N; Cunningham, Rebecca M

2010-11-01

Older occupants in motor-vehicle crashes are more likely to experience injury than younger occupants. One possible reason for this is that increasing age is associated with increased prevalence of osteoporosis, which decreases bone strength. Crash-injury data were used with Bayes' Theorem to estimate the conditional probability of AIS 3+ skeletal injury given that an occupant is osteoporotic for the injury to the head, spine, thorax, lower extremities, and upper extremities. This requires the conditional probabilities of osteoporosis given AIS 3+ injury for each of the body regions, which were determined from analysis of the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network database. It also requires information on probability of osteoporosis in the crash-involved population and the probabilities of AIS 3+ skeletal injury to different body regions in crashes. The latter probabilities were obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) database. The former was obtained by modeling the probability of osteoporosis in the US populations using data from the 2006 National Health Examination Nutrition Survey and applying this model to the estimate of the crash-involved population in NASS-CDS. To attempt to account for the effects of age on injury outcome that are independent of osteoporosis, only data from occupants who were 60 years of age or older were used in all analyses. Results indicate that the only body region that experiences a statistically significant change in fracture injury risk with osteoporosis is the spine, for which osteoporosis increases the risk of AIS 3+ fracture by 3.28 times, or from 0.41% to 1.34% (p<0.0001). This finding suggests that the increase in AIS 3+ injury risk with age for non-spine injuries is likely influenced by factors other than osteoporosis. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The return period analysis of natural disasters with statistical modeling of bivariate joint probability distribution.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Liu, Xueqin; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng

2013-01-01

New features of natural disasters have been observed over the last several years. The factors that influence the disasters' formation mechanisms, regularity of occurrence and main characteristics have been revealed to be more complicated and diverse in nature than previously thought. As the uncertainty involved increases, the variables need to be examined further. This article discusses the importance and the shortage of multivariate analysis of natural disasters and presents a method to estimate the joint probability of the return periods and perform a risk analysis. Severe dust storms from 1990 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia were used as a case study to test this new methodology, as they are normal and recurring climatic phenomena on Earth. Based on the 79 investigated events and according to the dust storm definition with bivariate, the joint probability distribution of severe dust storms was established using the observed data of maximum wind speed and duration. The joint return periods of severe dust storms were calculated, and the relevant risk was analyzed according to the joint probability. The copula function is able to simulate severe dust storm disasters accurately. The joint return periods generated are closer to those observed in reality than the univariate return periods and thus have more value in severe dust storm disaster mitigation, strategy making, program design, and improvement of risk management. This research may prove useful in risk-based decision making. The exploration of multivariate analysis methods can also lay the foundation for further applications in natural disaster risk analysis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Factors Associated With Bites to a Child From a Dog Living in the Same Home: A Bi-National Comparison.

PubMed

Messam, Locksley L McV; Kass, Philip H; Chomel, Bruno B; Hart, Lynette A

2018-01-01

We conducted a veterinary clinic-based retrospective cohort study aimed at identifying child-, dog-, and home-environment factors associated with dog bites to children aged 5-15 years old living in the same home as a dog in Kingston, Jamaica (236) and San Francisco, USA (61). Secondarily, we wished to compare these factors to risk factors for dog bites to the general public. Participant information was collected via interviewer-administered questionnaire using proxy respondents. Data were analyzed using log-binomial regression to estimate relative risks and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each exposure-dog bite relationship. Exploiting the correspondence between X% confidence intervals and X% Bayesian probability intervals obtained using a uniform prior distribution, for each exposure, we calculated probabilities of the true (population) RRs ≥ 1.25 or ≤0.8, for positive or negative associations, respectively. Boys and younger children were at higher risk for bites, than girls and older children, respectively. Dogs living in a home with no yard space were at an elevated risk (RR = 2.97; 95% CI: 1.06-8.33) of biting a child living in the same home, compared to dogs that had yard space. Dogs routinely allowed inside for some portion of the day (RR = 3.00; 95% CI: 0.94-9.62) and dogs routinely allowed to sleep in a family member's bedroom (RR = 2.82; 95% CI: 1.17-6.81) were also more likely to bite a child living in the home than those that were not. In San Francisco, but less so in Kingston, bites were inversely associated with the number of children in the home. While in Kingston, but not in San Francisco, smaller breeds and dogs obtained for companionship were at higher risk for biting than larger breeds and dogs obtained for protection, respectively. Overall, for most exposures, the observed associations were consistent with population RRs of practical importance (i.e., RRs ≥ 1.25 or ≤0.8). Finally, we found substantial consistency between risk factors for bites to children and previously reported risk factors for general bites.

Factors Influencing Suicidal Tendencies of Patients with Diagnosis of Attempted Suicide in Medical History and Potential Prevention of Relapse Prevention.

PubMed

Kotrbová, Kvetoslava; Dóci, Ivan; Hamplová, Lidmila; Dvořák, Vít; Selingerová, Šárka; Růžičková, Veronika; Chmelařová, Šárka

2017-12-01

The authors researched the incidence of suicidal thoughts and related factors in 123 patients of the psychiatric ward of the Hospital of České Budějovice with diagnosed attempted suicide in their medical history for the period from January 2013 – June 2015. The research was carried out in two stages. At the beginning of the hospitalization, quantitative data collection was implemented using a semi-structured questionnaire, followed by qualitative research conducted with semi-structured phone conversation, based on previous patient's written consent. The research data were statistically processed to obtain information about the character of relations among individual characteristics. To quantify them, the Bayesian Network (BN) was constructed, and to identify relations among individual characteristics, the Hill-Climbing algorithm was used. Before deriving the network, variables were discretized. The network parameters were set based on a data matrix using the maximal plausibility method. The results of analysed set show that the probability of suicidal thoughts is high, achieving a value of 0.750 (0.781 for women and 0.724 for men). If the patient visits a contact centre for drug-addicted persons, the probability of suicidal thoughts decreases to 0.683. If the patient visits a psychotherapist, the values of 0.736 are achieved. If a daily care centre is visited, the estimated risk rises to 0.832 and the probability of the patient repetitively attempting suicide is 0.606. If the interviewed person regularly consumes alcohol, the probable relapse amounts to 0.616. But if the person consumes alcohol from time to time, the probability rises to 0.701. In case of abstinence, the probable relapse decreases to 0.565. The incidence of suicidal thoughts in observed patients was high, and the amount of risk was influenced by gender, by visiting follow-up care facilities, psychotherapy, and particularly by the frequency of alcohol consumption. Intermittent alcohol consumption is the highest-risk factor in connection with relapsing suicide. In case of psychiatric patients with attempted suicide in their medical history, all verified preventive and therapeutic procedures that can contribute to prevention of relapses should be used within follow-up professional care. Specific approach of the closest social environment, medical literacy of the population and state safety measures are important. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

Gender differences in predicting high-risk drinking among undergraduate students.

PubMed

Wilke, Dina J; Siebert, Darcy Clay; Delva, Jorge; Smith, Michael P; Howell, Richard L

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender differences in college students' high-risk drinking as measured by an estimated blood alcohol concentration (eBAC) based on gender, height, weight, self-reported number of drinks, and hours spent drinking. Using a developmental/contextual framework, high-risk drinking is conceptualized as a function of relevant individual characteristics, interpersonal factors, and contextual factors regularly mentioned in the college drinking literature. Individual characteristics include race, gender, and age; interpersonal characteristics include number of sexual partners and having experienced forced sexual contact. Finally, contextual factors include Greek membership, living off-campus, and perception of peer drinking behavior. This study is a secondary data analysis of 1,422 students at a large university in the Southeast. Data were gathered from a probability sample of students through a mail survey. A three-step hierarchical logistic regression analysis showed gender differences in the pathway for high-risk drinking. For men, high-risk drinking was predicted by a combination of individual characteristics and contextual factors. For women, interpersonal factors, along with individual characteristics and contextual factors, predicted high-risk drinking, highlighting the importance of understanding female sexual relationships and raising questions about women's risk-taking behavior. Implications for prevention and assessment are discussed.

Pregnancy after tubal sterilization with silicone rubber band and spring clip application.

PubMed

Peterson, H B; Xia, Z; Wilcox, L S; Tylor, L R; Trussell, J

2001-02-01

To determine risk factors for pregnancy after tubal sterilization with silicone rubber bands or spring clips. A total of 3329 women sterilized using silicone rubber bands and 1595 women sterilized using spring clips were followed for up to 14 years as part of a prospective cohort study conducted in medical centers in nine US cities. We assessed the risk of pregnancy by cumulative life-table probabilities and proportional hazards analysis. The risk of pregnancy for women who had silicone rubber band application differed by location of band application and study site. The 10-year cumulative probabilities of pregnancy varied from a low of 0.0 per 1000 procedures at one study site to a high of 42.5 per 1000 procedures in the four combined sites in which fewer than 100 procedures per site were performed. The risk of pregnancy for women who had spring clip application varied by location of clip application, study site, race or ethnicity, tubal disease, and history of abdominal or pelvic surgery. The probabilities across study sites ranged from 7.1 per 1000 procedures at 10 years to 78.0 per 1000 procedures at 5 years (follow-up was limited to 5 years at that site). The 10-year cumulative probability of pregnancy after silicone rubber band and spring clip application is low but varies substantially by both clinical and demographic characteristics.

Racial differences in venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Zakai, N A; McClure, L A

2011-10-01

The incidence of venous thrombosis (VTE) varies by race, with African-Americans having over 5-fold greater incidence than Asian-ancestry populations, and an intermediate risk for European and Hispanic populations. Known racial differences in genetic polymorphisms associated with thrombosis do not account for this gradient of risk, nor do known racial variations in environmental risk factors. Data on the incidence of and risk factors for VTE outside of Europe and North America and in non-European ancestry populations are sparse. Common genetic polymorphisms in European-Ancestry populations, such as factor V Leiden and prothrombin G20210A, and environmental risk factors, such as obesity, may account for some of the increased risk in European populations, and high factor VIII, high von Willebrand factor and low protein C levels and increased prevalence of obesity may explain some of the increased risk in African-Americans. The low rates in Asian populations may be partially explained by low clinical suspicion in a perceived low-risk population and lack of access to healthcare in other populations. As risk factors for thrombosis, such as surgery and treatment for cancer, are applicable to more people, as obesity increases in prevalence in the developing world, and as surveillance systems for VTE improve, VTE may increase in previously low-risk populations. While differences in VTE by race due to genetic predisposition will probably always be present, understanding the reasons for racial differences in VTE will help providers develop strategies to minimize VTE in all populations. © 2011 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors predicting low back functional impairment among furniture distribution employees

PubMed Central

Ferguson, Sue A.; Allread, W. Gary; Burr, Deborah L.; Heaney, Catherine; Marras, William S.

2013-01-01

Background Biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors for low back disorder have been studied extensively however few researchers have examined all three risk factors. The objective of this was to develop a low back disorder risk model in furniture distribution workers using biomechanical, psychosocial and individual risk factors. Methods This was a prospective study with a six month follow-up time. There were 454 subjects at 9 furniture distribution facilities enrolled in the study. Biomechanical exposure was evaluated using the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (2001) lifting threshold limit values for low back injury risk. Psychosocial and individual risk factors were evaluated via questionnaires. Low back health functional status was measured using the lumbar motion monitor. Low back disorder cases were defined as a loss of low back functional performance of −0.14 or more. Findings There were 92 cases of meaningful loss in low back functional performance and 185 non cases. A multivariate logistic regression model included baseline functional performance probability, facility, perceived workload, intermediated reach distance number of exertions above threshold limit values, job tenure manual material handling, and age combined to provide a model sensitivity of 68.5% and specificity of 71.9%. Interpretation: The results of this study indicate which biomechanical, individual and psychosocial risk factors are important as well as how much of each risk factor is too much resulting in increased risk of low back disorder among furniture distribution workers. PMID:21955915

[Predicting the probability of development and progression of primary open angle glaucoma by regression modeling].

PubMed

Likhvantseva, V G; Sokolov, V A; Levanova, O N; Kovelenova, I V

2018-01-01

Prediction of the clinical course of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is one of the main directions in solving the problem of vision loss prevention and stabilization of the pathological process. Simple statistical methods of correlation analysis show the extent of each risk factor's impact, but do not indicate the total impact of these factors in personalized combinations. The relationships between the risk factors is subject to correlation and regression analysis. The regression equation represents the dependence of the mathematical expectation of the resulting sign on the combination of factor signs. To develop a technique for predicting the probability of development and progression of primary open-angle glaucoma based on a personalized combination of risk factors by linear multivariate regression analysis. The study included 66 patients (23 female and 43 male; 132 eyes) with newly diagnosed primary open-angle glaucoma. The control group consisted of 14 patients (8 male and 6 female). Standard ophthalmic examination was supplemented with biochemical study of lacrimal fluid. Concentration of matrix metalloproteinase MMP-2 and MMP-9 in tear fluid in both eyes was determined using 'sandwich' enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method. The study resulted in the development of regression equations and step-by-step multivariate logistic models that can help calculate the risk of development and progression of POAG. Those models are based on expert evaluation of clinical and instrumental indicators of hydrodynamic disturbances (coefficient of outflow ease - C, volume of intraocular fluid secretion - F, fluctuation of intraocular pressure), as well as personalized morphometric parameters of the retina (central retinal thickness in the macular area) and concentration of MMP-2 and MMP-9 in the tear film. The newly developed regression equations are highly informative and can be a reliable tool for studying of the influence vector and assessment of pathogenic potential of the independent risk factors in specific personalized combinations.

Emergency Physician Attitudes, Preferences, and Risk Tolerance for Stroke as a Potential Cause of Dizziness Symptoms

PubMed Central

Kene, Mamata V.; Ballard, Dustin W.; Vinson, David R.; Rauchwerger, Adina S.; Iskin, Hilary R.; Kim, Anthony S.

2015-01-01

Introduction We evaluated emergency physicians’ (EP) current perceptions, practice, and attitudes towards evaluating stroke as a cause of dizziness among emergency department patients. Methods We administered a survey to all EPs in a large integrated healthcare delivery system. The survey included clinical vignettes, perceived utility of historical and exam elements, attitudes about the value of and requisite post-test probability of a clinical prediction rule for dizziness. We calculated descriptive statistics and post-test probabilities for such a clinical prediction rule. Results The response rate was 68% (366/535). Respondents’ median practice tenure was eight years (37% female, 92% emergency medicine board certified). Symptom quality and typical vascular risk factors increased suspicion for stroke as a cause of dizziness. Most respondents reported obtaining head computed tomography (CT) (74%). Nearly all respondents used and felt confident using cranial nerve and limb strength testing. A substantial minority of EPs used the Epley maneuver (49%) and HINTS (head-thrust test, gaze-evoked nystagmus, and skew deviation) testing (30%); however, few EPs reported confidence in these tests’ bedside application (35% and 16%, respectively). Respondents favorably viewed applying a properly validated clinical prediction rule for assessment of immediate and 30-day stroke risk, but indicated it would have to reduce stroke risk to <0.5% to be clinically useful. Conclusion EPs report relying on symptom quality, vascular risk factors, simple physical exam elements, and head CT to diagnose stroke as the cause of dizziness, but would find a validated clinical prediction rule for dizziness helpful. A clinical prediction rule would have to achieve a 0.5% post-test stroke probability for acceptability. PMID:26587108

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

PubMed

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

Survival analysis of cervical cancer using stratified Cox regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purnami, S. W.; Inayati, K. D.; Sari, N. W. Wulan; Chosuvivatwong, V.; Sriplung, H.

2016-04-01

Cervical cancer is one of the mostly widely cancer cause of the women death in the world including Indonesia. Most cervical cancer patients come to the hospital already in an advanced stadium. As a result, the treatment of cervical cancer becomes more difficult and even can increase the death's risk. One of parameter that can be used to assess successfully of treatment is the probability of survival. This study raises the issue of cervical cancer survival patients at Dr. Soetomo Hospital using stratified Cox regression based on six factors such as age, stadium, treatment initiation, companion disease, complication, and anemia. Stratified Cox model is used because there is one independent variable that does not satisfy the proportional hazards assumption that is stadium. The results of the stratified Cox model show that the complication variable is significant factor which influent survival probability of cervical cancer patient. The obtained hazard ratio is 7.35. It means that cervical cancer patient who has complication is at risk of dying 7.35 times greater than patient who did not has complication. While the adjusted survival curves showed that stadium IV had the lowest probability of survival.

Prospective evaluation of parent distress following pediatric burns and identification of risk factors for young child and parent posttraumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

De Young, Alexandra C; Hendrikz, Joan; Kenardy, Justin A; Cobham, Vanessa E; Kimble, Roy M

2014-02-01

Early childhood is a high-risk time for exposure to potentially traumatic medical events. We have previously reported that 10% of young children continue to have posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) 6 months after burn injury. This study aimed to 1) document the prevalence and prospective change in parental psychological distress over 6 months following their child's burn injury and 2) identify risk factors for posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) in young children and their parents. Participants were 120 parents of 1-6-year-old children with unintentional burn injuries. Data were collected within 2 weeks, 1 month, and 6 months of burn injury using developmentally sensitive diagnostic interviews and questionnaires. Within the first month, ∼ 25% of parents had a probable PTSD diagnosis, and moderate to extremely severe levels of depression, anxiety, and stress. Distress levels decreased significantly over time; however, 5% of parents still had probable PTSD at 6 months. Hierarchical multiple regression and path analyses indicated that parent posttraumatic stress reactions contributed significantly to the development and maintenance of child PTSS. Other risk factors for child PTSS included premorbid emotional and behavioral difficulties and larger burn size. Risk factors identified for parent PTSS included prior trauma history, acute distress, greater number of child invasive procedures, guilt, and child PTSS. The findings from this study suggest that parents' responses to a traumatic event may play a particularly important role in a young child's psychological recovery. However, further research is needed to confirm the direction of the relationship between child and parent distress. This study identified variables that could be incorporated into screening tools or targeted by early intervention protocols to prevent the development of persistent child and parent PTSS following medical trauma.

Criticism by community people and poor workplace communication as risk factors for the mental health of local welfare workers after the Great East Japan Earthquake: A cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Shoji, Wataru; Nagao, Ayami; Abe, Mikika; Suzuki, Yuriko; Matsuoka, Hiroo

2017-01-01

After a large-scale natural disaster, demand for social welfare services increases, and the mental health of local social welfare workers becomes a matter of great concern because of their dual role as support providers and disaster survivors. We examined whether work-related social stressors, including criticism by community people and poor workplace communication, were associated with increased risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, or psychological distress 20–22 months after the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE; March 11, 2011) in local social welfare workers. Demographic characteristics, disaster-related risk factors (near-death experience, dead/missing family members, loss of housing), and work-related social risk factors (criticism, lack of communication) were obtained 20–22 months after the GEJE from 822 local workers. Questionnaires measured PTSD, depression, and psychological stress. Bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were applied. More local social welfare workers suffered from mental health problems than would be expected. Criticism by community people was significantly associated with probable PTSD and high psychological distress (adjusted odds ratio = 2.31 and 2.55, respectively). Furthermore, lack of workplace communication was associated with probable PTSD, depression, and high psychological distress (adjusted odds ratio = 3.97, 4.27, and 4.65, respectively). Almost 2 years after the disaster, local relief workers still suffered from mental health problems. Because post-disaster work-related social stressors constitute risk factors for these mental health problems, measures to improve working conditions and prevent and treat mental disorders should be a priority. PMID:29166390

Cluster of Nipah virus infection, Kushtia District, Bangladesh, 2007.

PubMed

Homaira, Nusrat; Rahman, Mahmudur; Hossain, M Jahangir; Nahar, Nazmun; Khan, Rasheda; Rahman, Mostafizur; Podder, Goutam; Nahar, Kamrun; Khan, Dawlat; Gurley, Emily S; Rollin, Pierre E; Comer, James A; Ksiazek, Thomas G; Luby, Stephen P

2010-10-21

In March 2007, we investigated a cluster of Nipah encephalitis to identify risk factors for Nipah infection in Bangladesh. We defined confirmed Nipah cases by the presence of IgM and IgG antibodies against Nipah virus in serum. Case-patients, who resided in the same village during the outbreak period but died before serum could be collected, were classified as probable cases. We identified three confirmed and five probable Nipah cases. There was a single index case. Five of the secondary cases came in close physical contact to the index case when she was ill. Case-patients were more likely to have physical contact with the index case (71% cases versus 0% controls, p = <0.001). The index case, on her third day of illness, and all the subsequent cases attended the same religious gathering. For three probable cases including the index case, we could not identify any known risk factors for Nipah infection such as physical contact with Nipah case-patients, consumption of raw date palm juice, or contact with sick animals or fruit bats. Though person-to-person transmission remains an important mode of transmission for Nipah infection, we could not confirm the source of infection for three of the probable Nipah case-patients. Continued surveillance and outbreak investigations will help better understand the transmission of Nipah virus and develop preventive strategies.

A comparison between Bayes discriminant analysis and logistic regression for prediction of debris flow in southwest Sichuan, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wenbo; Jing, Shaocai; Yu, Wenjuan; Wang, Zhaoxian; Zhang, Guoping; Huang, Jianxi

2013-11-01

In this study, the high risk areas of Sichuan Province with debris flow, Panzhihua and Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, were taken as the studied areas. By using rainfall and environmental factors as the predictors and based on the different prior probability combinations of debris flows, the prediction of debris flows was compared in the areas with statistical methods: logistic regression (LR) and Bayes discriminant analysis (BDA). The results through the comprehensive analysis show that (a) with the mid-range scale prior probability, the overall predicting accuracy of BDA is higher than those of LR; (b) with equal and extreme prior probabilities, the overall predicting accuracy of LR is higher than those of BDA; (c) the regional predicting models of debris flows with rainfall factors only have worse performance than those introduced environmental factors, and the predicting accuracies of occurrence and nonoccurrence of debris flows have been changed in the opposite direction as the supplemented information.

Growth Trajectories of Mexican-Origin Adolescent Mothers’ Educational Expectations

PubMed Central

Bravo, Diamond Y.; Toomey, Russell B.; Umaña-Taylor, Adriana J.; Updegraff, Kimberly A.; Jahromi, Laudan B.

2015-01-01

Pregnant and parenting adolescents are at significant risk for educational underachievement. Educational expectations play a critical role for understanding subsequent educational attainment; yet, limited empirical attention has been given to changes in educational expectations across the transition to parenthood among adolescent mothers. This longitudinal study explored stability and change in educational expectations across the transition to parenthood among 191 first-time pregnant Mexican-origin adolescents (Mage = 16.76, SD = .98). The current study also examined how several contextually relevant risk and protective factors were associated with differential patterns of educational trajectories across this transition and subsequent educational attainment. Latent class growth analyses revealed three educational expectation trajectories: low and stable (< high school degree), moderate and increasing (≈ associate degree), and high and increasing (≈ bachelor’s degree). Adolescent mothers in the low and stable group encountered several educational risk factors that partially explained their probability of membership in this trajectory and subsequent lower attainment. Conversely, probability of membership in the high and increasing expectations class was partially explained by adolescents’ on-track school status at the time of pregnancy and their mother figures’ educational expectations for their pregnant daughters. These findings have implications for understanding the malleable factors that help to explain why some adolescent mothers describe consistently high educational expectations and subsequent higher attainment, while others do not. PMID:28392610

A model to predict progression in brain-injured patients.

PubMed

Tommasino, N; Forteza, D; Godino, M; Mizraji, R; Alvarez, I

2014-11-01

The study of brain death (BD) epidemiology and the acute brain injury (ABI) progression profile is important to improve public health programs, organ procurement strategies, and intensive care unit (ICU) protocols. The purpose of this study was to analyze the ABI progression profile among patients admitted to ICUs with a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) ≤8, as well as establishing a prediction model of probability of death and BD. This was a retrospective analysis of prospective data that included all brain-injured patients with GCS ≤8 admitted to a total of four public and private ICUs in Uruguay (N = 1447). The independent predictor factors of death and BD were studied using logistic regression analysis. A hierarchical model consisting of 2 nested logit regression models was then created. With these models, the probabilities of death, BD, and death by cardiorespiratory arrest were analyzed. In the first regression, we observed that as the GCS decreased and age increased, the probability of death rose. Each additional year of age increased the probability of death by 0.014. In the second model, however, BD risk decreased with each year of age. The presence of swelling, mass effect, and/or space-occupying lesion increased BD risk for the same given GCS. In the presence of injuries compatible with intracranial hypertension, age behaved as a protective factor that reduced the probability of BD. Based on the analysis of the local epidemiology, a model to predict the probability of death and BD can be developed. The organ potential donation of a country, region, or hospital can be predicted on the basis of this model, customizing it to each specific situation.

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

Depressive symptoms and incidence of mild cognitive impairment and probable dementia in elderly women: the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study.

PubMed

Goveas, Joseph S; Espeland, Mark A; Woods, Nancy F; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Kotchen, Jane M

2011-01-01

To examine whether significant depressive symptoms in postmenopausal women increases the risk of subsequent mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. Prospective cohort study. Thirty nine of the 40 Women's Health Initiative (WHI) clinical centers that participated in a randomized clinical trial of hormone therapy. Six thousand three hundred seventy-six postmenopausal women without cognitive impairment aged 65 to 79 at baseline. Depressive disorders were assessed using an eight-item Burnam algorithm and followed annually for a mean period of 5.4 years. A central adjudication committee classified the presence of MCI and probable dementia based on an extensive neuropsychiatric examination. Eight percent of postmenopausal women in this sample reported depressive symptoms above a 0.06 cut point on the Burnam algorithm. Depressive disorder at baseline was associated with greater risk of incident MCI (hazard ratio (HR)=1.98, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.33-2.94), probable dementia (HR=2.03, 95% CI=1.15-3.60), and MCI or probable dementia (HR=1.92, 95% CI=1.35-2.73) after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle and vascular risk factors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, antidepressant use, and current and past hormone therapy status. Assignment to hormone therapy and baseline cognitive function did not affect these relationships. Women without depression who endorsed a remote history of depression had a higher risk of developing dementia. Clinically significant depressive symptoms in women aged 65 and older are independently associated with greater incidence of MCI and probable dementia. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2011, The American Geriatrics Society.

Modifiable risk and protective factors for depressive symptoms in low-income African American mothers.

PubMed

Siefert, Kristine; Finlayson, Tracy L; Williams, David R; Delva, Jorge; Ismail, Amid I

2007-01-01

Low-income African American mothers of young children experience high rates of depression, but many of the risk factors that have been identified provide little direction for intervention. The authors examined modifiable risk and protective factors for probable depression (Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale >or= 23) in 824 African American mothers living in the 39 poorest census tracts in Detroit. Household food insufficiency and deteriorated housing significantly increased the odds of likely depression, whereas availability of a loan in a crisis, help with childcare, and transportation were protective. However, more frequent experiences of everyday discrimination greatly increased the odds of elevated depressive symptoms. These findings support the need for interventions that operate across individual and societal levels to address the fundamental causes of poor mental health.

Infective endocarditis in the Western Cape Province of South Africa: a three-year prospective study.

PubMed

Koegelenberg, C F N; Doubell, A F; Orth, H; Reuter, H

2003-03-01

The last 50 years have seen major changes in the epidemiology of infective endocarditis (IE). To evaluate local patient characteristics, risk factors, clinical sequelae, microbiology, morbidity and mortality in patients with definite IE. Prospective observational study. Over a three-year period, patients referred with probable IE were prospectively enrolled. All received a standardized diagnostic evaluation. Epidemiological data were documented; underlying risk factors for IE were sought. Initial evaluation and follow-up (to 6 months) included the documentation of vascular or immunological phenomena, morbidity and mortality. Of 92 patients referred with probable IE, 47 had definite IE. These patients had a mean age of 37.7 years with a male predominance (1.6:1). Rheumatic heart disease was present in 36 (76.6%). Eight had prosthetic valves. Three had congenital heart disease, mitral valve prolapse or multiple central intravascular catheters, respectively. All denied the use of intravenous recreational drugs and only one tested seropositive for HIV. Renal involvement (59.6%) and clubbing (29.8%) were commonly observed. The 6-month mortality rate was 35.6%, while 44.7% needed valvular replacement. An aetiological diagnosis was made in 21, with viridans streptococci the most common isolate. Infective endocarditis in the Western Cape of South Africa is a disease of younger adults, with a male predominance. Rheumatic heart disease is the major predisposing factor. Degenerative heart disease and intravenous drug abuse are not important risk factors. Our data do not support the notion that HIV infection is an independent risk factor for IE. Local mortality rates are much higher than recent international figures, as is the proportion of 'culture-negative' IE.

Risk Factors and Consequent Outcomes of Placenta Previa: Report From a Referral Center.

PubMed

Saleh Gargari, Soraya; Seify, Zahra; Haghighi, Ladan; Khoshnood Shariati, Maryam; Mirzamoradi, Masoumeh

2016-11-01

 Because of an unknown factor, the frequency of complicated pregnancy with placenta previa has been raised during past decade. This study was designed to deepen our understanding of risk factors and outcomes of placenta previa in our country. This study investigated 694 cases of placenta previa comparing with 600 healthy pregnant women with not overlie placenta in two referral and tertiary Obstetrics and Gynecological Hospital in Iran on the basis of the clinical and para-clinical analysis, in order to find the probable risk factors for occurrence of placenta previa and its effect on maternal and neonatal complications. The most important risk factor for the occurrence of placenta previa was advanced maternal age (P<0.001) and history of stillbirth (OR=117.2, CI=58.3-236.0). In the other hand, the most substantial outcome of this disorder was a reduction of gestational age (P<0.001) and low birth weight neonatally (P<0.001). The conservative follow-up should be programmed for women with placenta previa based on the type of risk factors which can provide the best possible management to decrease the morbidity and mortality of their related complications.

Risk Factors for Human Brucellosis in Northern Tanzania.

PubMed

Cash-Goldwasser, Shama; Maze, Michael J; Rubach, Matthew P; Biggs, Holly M; Stoddard, Robyn A; Sharples, Katrina J; Halliday, Jo E B; Cleaveland, Sarah; Shand, Michael C; Mmbaga, Blandina T; Muiruri, Charles; Saganda, Wilbrod; Lwezaula, Bingileki F; Kazwala, Rudovick R; Maro, Venance P; Crump, John A

2018-02-01

Little is known about the epidemiology of human brucellosis in sub-Saharan Africa. This hampers prevention and control efforts at the individual and population levels. To evaluate risk factors for brucellosis in northern Tanzania, we conducted a study of patients presenting with fever to two hospitals in Moshi, Tanzania. Serum taken at enrollment and at 4-6 week follow-up was tested by Brucella microagglutination test. Among participants with a clinically compatible illness, confirmed brucellosis cases were defined as having a ≥ 4-fold rise in agglutination titer between paired sera or a blood culture positive for Brucella spp., and probable brucellosis cases were defined as having a single reciprocal titer ≥ 160. Controls had reciprocal titers < 20 in paired sera. We collected demographic and clinical information and administered a risk factor questionnaire. Of 562 participants in the analysis, 50 (8.9%) had confirmed or probable brucellosis. Multivariable analysis showed that risk factors for brucellosis included assisting goat or sheep births (Odds ratio [OR] 5.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4, 24.6) and having contact with cattle (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.0, 1.4). Consuming boiled or pasteurized dairy products was protective against brucellosis (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.02, 0.93). No participants received a clinical diagnosis of brucellosis from their healthcare providers. The under-recognition of brucellosis by healthcare workers could be addressed with clinician education and better access to brucellosis diagnostic tests. Interventions focused on protecting livestock keepers, especially those who assist goat or sheep births, are needed.

[Birds, mosquitoes and West Nile virus: little risk of West Nile fever in the Netherlands].

PubMed

Duijster, Janneke W; Stroo, C J Arjan; Braks, Marieta A H

2016-01-01

Due to increased incidence of West Nile fever (WNF) in Europe and the rapid spread of West Nile virus (WNV) in the US, it is commonly thought that it will only be a matter of time before WNV reaches the Netherlands. However, assessing whether WNV is really a threat to the Dutch population is challenging, due to the numerous factors affecting transmission of the virus. Some of these factors are known to limit the risk of WNF in the Netherlands. This risk is determined by the interaction between the pathogen (WNV), the vectors (Culex mosquitoes), the reservoirs (birds) and the exposure of humans to infected mosquitoes. In this paper, we discuss the factors influencing introduction, establishment and spread of WNV in the Netherlands. The probability that each of these three phases will occur in the Netherlands is currently relatively small, as is the risk of WNF infection in humans in the Netherlands.

Risk perceptions of arsenic in tap water and consumption of bottled water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakus, Paul M.; Shaw, W. Douglass; Nguyen, To N.; Walker, Mark

2009-05-01

The demand for bottled water has increased rapidly over the past decade, but bottled water is extremely costly compared to tap water. The convenience of bottled water surely matters to consumers, but are others factors at work? This manuscript examines whether purchases of bottled water are associated with the perceived risk of tap water. All of the past studies on bottled water consumption have used simple scale measures of perceived risk that do not correspond to risk measures used by risk analysts. We elicit a probability-based measure of risk and find that as perceived risks rise, expenditures for bottled water rise.

Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China.

PubMed

Ye, Tao; Wang, Yao; Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

2017-01-01

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990-2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management.

Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners’ use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs’ descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. Results GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: ‘positive’, ‘scare tactic’, and ‘indirect’. A ‘positive’ strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A ‘scare tactic’ strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to ‘scare’ them into taking action. An ‘indirect’ strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. Conclusions This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice. PMID:24885409

Risk Assessment at the Cosmetic Product Manufacturer by Expert Judgment Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vtorushina, A. N.; Larionova, E. V.; Mezenceva, I. L.; Nikonova, E. D.

2017-05-01

A case study was performed in a cosmetic product manufacturer. We have identified the main risk factors of occupational accidents and their causes. Risk of accidents is assessed by the expert judgment method. Event tree for the most probable accident is built and recommendations on improvement of occupational health and safety protection system at the cosmetic product manufacturer are developed. The results of this paper can be used to develop actions to improve the occupational safety and health system in the chemical industry.

Esophageal Perforation After Transesophageal Echocardiogram.

PubMed

Shapira, Michael Y.; Hirshberg, Boaz; Agid, Ronit; Zuckerman, Elena; Caraco, Yoseph

1999-02-01

Esophageal rupture after transesophageal echocardiogram (TEE) is a rare but life-threatening complication. Risk factors for perforation include spasm or hypertrophy of the cricopharyngeal sphincter, cervical arthritis, forward and left lateral bending of the distal esophagus, and esophageal disease such as inflammation or neoplasm. We present the case of a 80-year-old woman who developed perforation of her esophagus after TEE. Prior irradiation to the chest due to treatment for breast cancer and subsequent fibrosis probably contributed to this complication. Physicians referring patients for a TEE and physicians performing this procedure should be aware for the risk of perforation. The identification of risk factors and gentle maneuvering of the probe may prevent this severe, life-threatening complication.

The Promise of Prevention: The Effects of Four Preventable Risk Factors on National Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy Disparities by Race and County in the United States

PubMed Central

Danaei, Goodarz; Rimm, Eric B.; Oza, Shefali; Kulkarni, Sandeep C.; Murray, Christopher J. L.; Ezzati, Majid

2010-01-01

Background There has been substantial research on psychosocial and health care determinants of health disparities in the United States (US) but less on the role of modifiable risk factors. We estimated the effects of smoking, high blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and adiposity on national life expectancy and on disparities in life expectancy and disease-specific mortality among eight subgroups of the US population (the “Eight Americas”) defined on the basis of race and the location and socioeconomic characteristics of county of residence, in 2005. Methods and Findings We combined data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to estimate unbiased risk factor levels for the Eight Americas. We used data from the National Center for Health Statistics to estimate age–sex–disease-specific number of deaths in 2005. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain risk factor effect sizes for disease-specific mortality. We used epidemiologic methods for multiple risk factors to estimate the effects of current exposure to these risk factors on death rates, and life table methods to estimate effects on life expectancy. Asians had the lowest mean body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, and smoking; whites had the lowest systolic blood pressure (SBP). SBP was highest in blacks, especially in the rural South—5–7 mmHg higher than whites. The other three risk factors were highest in Western Native Americans, Southern low-income rural blacks, and/or low-income whites in Appalachia and the Mississippi Valley. Nationally, these four risk factors reduced life expectancy at birth in 2005 by an estimated 4.9 y in men and 4.1 y in women. Life expectancy effects were smallest in Asians (M, 4.1 y; F, 3.6 y) and largest in Southern rural blacks (M, 6.7 y; F, 5.7 y). Standard deviation of life expectancies in the Eight Americas would decline by 0.50 y (18%) in men and 0.45 y (21%) in women if these risks had been reduced to optimal levels. Disparities in the probabilities of dying from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes at different ages would decline by 69%–80%; the corresponding reduction for probabilities of dying from cancers would be 29%–50%. Individually, smoking and high blood pressure had the largest effect on life expectancy disparities. Conclusions Disparities in smoking, blood pressure, blood glucose, and adiposity explain a significant proportion of disparities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases and cancers, and some of the life expectancy disparities in the US. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:20351772

Mars Exploration Rovers Landing Dispersion Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knocke, Philip C.; Wawrzyniak, Geoffrey G.; Kennedy, Brian M.; Desai, Prasun N.; Parker, TImothy J.; Golombek, Matthew P.; Duxbury, Thomas C.; Kass, David M.

2004-01-01

Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. JPL's MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and JPL's AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Smoking among American adolescents: a risk and protective factor analysis.

PubMed

Scal, Peter; Ireland, Marjorie; Borowsky, Iris Wagman

2003-04-01

Cigarette smoking remains a substantial threat to the current and future health of America's youth. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk and protective factors for cigarette smoking among US adolescents. Data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health was used, comparing the responses of all non-smokers at Time 1 for their ability to predict the likelihood of smoking at Time 2, one year later. Data was stratified into four gender by grade group cohorts. Cross-cutting risk factors for smoking among all four cohorts were: using alcohol, marijuana, and other illicit drugs; violence involvement; having had sex; having friends who smoke and learning problems. Having a higher grade point average and family connectedness were protective across all cohorts. Other gender and grade group specific risk and protective factors were identified. The estimated probability of initiating smoking decreased by 19.2% to 54.1% both in situations of high and low risk as the number of protective factors present increased. Of the factors that predict or protect against smoking some are influential across all gender and grade group cohorts studied, while others are specific to gender and developmental stage. Prevention efforts that target both the reduction of risk factors and enhancement of protective factors at the individual, family, peer group and community are likely to reduce the likelihood of smoking initiation.

Impact of femoral neck and lumbar spine BMD discordances on FRAX probabilities in women: A meta-analysis of international cohorts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johansson, H.; Kanis, J. A.; Oden, A.

There are occasional marked discordances in BMD T-scores at the lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN). We investigated whether such discordances could contribute independently to fracture prediction using FRAX. In this paper, we studied 21,158 women, average age 63 years, from 10 prospective cohorts with baseline FRAX variables as well as FN and LS BMD. Incident fractures were collected by self-report and/or radiographic reports. Extended Poisson regression examined the relationship between differences in LS and FN T-scores (ΔLS–FN) and fracture risk, adjusted for age, time since baseline and other factors including FRAX 10-year probability for major osteoporotic fracture calculatedmore » using FN BMD. To examine the effect of an adjustment for ΔLS–FN on reclassification, women were separated into risk categories by their FRAX major fracture probability. High risk was classified using two approaches: being above the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group intervention threshold or, separately, being in the highest third of each cohort. The absolute ΔLS–FN was greater than 2 SD for 2.5 % of women and between 1 and 2 SD for 21 %. ΔLS–FN was associated with a significant risk of fracture adjusted for baseline FRAX (HR per SD change = 1.09; 95 % CI = 1.04–1.15). In reclassification analyses, only 2.3–3.2 % of the women moved to a higher or lower risk category when using FRAX with ΔLS–FN compared with FN-derived FRAX alone. Adjustment of estimated fracture risk for a large LS/FN discrepancy (>2SD) impacts to a large extent on only a relatively small number of individuals. More moderate (1–2SD) discordances in FN and LS T-scores have a small impact on FRAX probabilities. Finally, this might still improve clinical decision-making, particularly in women with probabilities close to an intervention threshold.« less

Impact of femoral neck and lumbar spine BMD discordances on FRAX probabilities in women: A meta-analysis of international cohorts

DOE PAGES

Johansson, H.; Kanis, J. A.; Oden, A.; ...

2014-09-04

There are occasional marked discordances in BMD T-scores at the lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN). We investigated whether such discordances could contribute independently to fracture prediction using FRAX. In this paper, we studied 21,158 women, average age 63 years, from 10 prospective cohorts with baseline FRAX variables as well as FN and LS BMD. Incident fractures were collected by self-report and/or radiographic reports. Extended Poisson regression examined the relationship between differences in LS and FN T-scores (ΔLS–FN) and fracture risk, adjusted for age, time since baseline and other factors including FRAX 10-year probability for major osteoporotic fracture calculatedmore » using FN BMD. To examine the effect of an adjustment for ΔLS–FN on reclassification, women were separated into risk categories by their FRAX major fracture probability. High risk was classified using two approaches: being above the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group intervention threshold or, separately, being in the highest third of each cohort. The absolute ΔLS–FN was greater than 2 SD for 2.5 % of women and between 1 and 2 SD for 21 %. ΔLS–FN was associated with a significant risk of fracture adjusted for baseline FRAX (HR per SD change = 1.09; 95 % CI = 1.04–1.15). In reclassification analyses, only 2.3–3.2 % of the women moved to a higher or lower risk category when using FRAX with ΔLS–FN compared with FN-derived FRAX alone. Adjustment of estimated fracture risk for a large LS/FN discrepancy (>2SD) impacts to a large extent on only a relatively small number of individuals. More moderate (1–2SD) discordances in FN and LS T-scores have a small impact on FRAX probabilities. Finally, this might still improve clinical decision-making, particularly in women with probabilities close to an intervention threshold.« less

Nematode Damage Functions: The Problems of Experimental and Sampling Error

PubMed Central

Ferris, H.

1984-01-01

The development and use of pest damage functions involves measurement and experimental errors associated with cultural, environmental, and distributional factors. Damage predictions are more valuable if considered with associated probability. Collapsing population densities into a geometric series of population classes allows a pseudo-replication removal of experimental and sampling error in damage function development. Recognition of the nature of sampling error for aggregated populations allows assessment of probability associated with the population estimate. The product of the probabilities incorporated in the damage function and in the population estimate provides a basis for risk analysis of the yield loss prediction and the ensuing management decision. PMID:19295865

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Patent Foramen Ovale as a Risk Factor for Altitude Decompression Illness

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-06-01

TTE ). In 48 volunteers at DCIEM screened for the PRP studies with a TTE , 14 (29%) were found to have an echo-probable PFO. In 29 altitude-exposed...subjects who had a TTE , there were 5 echo-probable PFOs. None of these 5 subjects experienced DCI. Two of these subjects had a high bubble load with grade...16% incidence (by TTE ) of PFO amongst 24 cases of Type II altitude DCI using trans- esophogeal echocardiography (TEE), suggesting that there was no

Prevalence and associated factors of depressive and anxiety symptoms among HIV-infected men who have sex with men in China.

PubMed

Li, Jinghua; Mo, Phoenix K H; Kahler, Christopher W; Lau, Joseph T F; Du, Mengran; Dai, Yingxue; Shen, Hanyang

2016-01-01

HIV-positive men who have sex with men (HIVMSM) face severe stigma and high levels of stressors, and have high prevalence of mental health problems (e.g., depression and anxiety). Very few studies explored the role of positive psychological factors on mental health problems among HIVMSM. The present study investigated the prevalence of two mental health problems (anxiety and depression), and their associated protective (gratitude) and risk (enacted HIV-related stigma, and perceived stress) factors among HIVMSM in China. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 321 HIVMSM in Chengdu, China, by using a structured questionnaire. Over half (55.8%) of the participants showed probable mild to severe depression (as assessed by the Center of Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale); 53.3% showed probable anxiety (as assessed by the General Anxiety Disorder scale). Adjusted logistic regression models revealed that gratitude (adjusted odds ratio (ORa = 0.90, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) = 0.86-0.94) was found to be protective, whilst perceived stress (ORa = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.12-1.22) and enacted stigma (ORa = 7.72, 95% CI = 2.27-26.25) were risk factors of depression. Gratitude (ORa = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.91-0.99) was also found to be protective whilst perceived stress (ORa = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.14-1.24) was a risk factor of anxiety. Gratitude did not moderate the associations found between related factors and poor mental health. It is warranted to promote mental health among HIVMSM, as depression/anxiety was highly prevalent. Such interventions should consider enhancement of gratitude, reduction of stress, and removal of enacted stigma as potential strategies, as such factors were significantly associated with depression/anxiety among HIVMSM.

Quantitative assessment of risk reduction from hand washing with antibacterial soaps.

PubMed

Gibson, L L; Rose, J B; Haas, C N; Gerba, C P; Rusin, P A

2002-01-01

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have estimated that there are 3,713,000 cases of infectious disease associated with day care facilities each year. The objective of this study was to examine the risk reduction achieved from using different soap formulations after diaper changing using a microbial quantitative risk assessment approach. To achieve this, a probability of infection model and an exposure assessment based on micro-organism transfer were used to evaluate the efficacy of different soap formulations in reducing the probability of disease following hand contact with an enteric pathogen. Based on this model, it was determined that the probability of infection ranged from 24/100 to 91/100 for those changing diapers of babies with symptomatic shigellosis who used a control product (soap without an antibacterial ingredient), 22/100 to 91/100 for those who used an antibacterial soap (chlorohexadine 4%), and 15/100 to 90/100 for those who used a triclosan (1.5%) antibacterial soap. Those with asymptomatic shigellosis who used a non-antibacterial control soap had a risk between 49/100,000 and 53/100, those who used the 4% chlorohexadine-containing soap had a risk between 43/100,000 and 51/100, and for those who used a 1.5% triclosan soap had a risk between 21/100,000 and 43/100. The adequate washing of hands after diapering reduces risk and can be further reduced by a factor of 20% by the use of an antibacterial soap. Quantitative risk assessment is a valuable tool in the evaluation of household sanitizing agents and low risk outcomes.

Age-related changes in pre- and post-conization HPV genotype distribution among women with high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

PubMed

Giannella, Luca; Fodero, Cristina; Boselli, Fausto; Rubino, Teresa; Mfuta, Kabala; Prandi, Sonia

2017-04-01

To assess the effect of age on pre- and post-conization HPV genotype distribution. The present retrospective observational study included consecutive women with high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia who underwent conization at the Cervical Cancer Screening Centre of Reggio Emilia, Italy, and University Hospital of Modena, Italy, between February 1, 2012, and October 31, 2014. Pre-conization and 6-month post-conization HPV genotyping results were compared between four age groups (<30, 30-39, 40-49, and ≥50 years) and age-related changes in the HPV genotypes present were evaluated. There were 162 patients included. The lowest occurrence of pre-conization high-risk and probable high-risk HPV genotypes was observed among patients aged at least 50 years when compared with younger patients (P=0.017). Conversely, women aged at least 50 years exhibited the highest level of post-conization high-risk and probable high-risk HPV genotypes (P=0.043). Additionally, an increasing incidence of recording identical pre- and post-conization HPV genotypes was associated with increasing age (P=0.024), as was increasing post-treatment recurrence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (P=0.030). The presence of high-risk and probable high-risk HPV genotypes was lowest among older patients before conization and was highest among these patients post-conization; post-treatment HPV clearance decreased with age and increasing age could be a risk factor for post-conization recurrence. © 2017 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

Anesthesia patient risk: a quantitative approach to organizational factors and risk management options.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M E; Lakats, L M; Murphy, D M; Gaba, D M

1997-08-01

The risk of death or brain damage to anesthesia patients is relatively low, particularly for healthy patients in modern hospitals. When an accident does occur, its cause is usually an error made by the anesthesiologist, either in triggering the accident sequence, or failing to take timely corrective measures. This paper presents a pilot study which explores the feasibility of extending probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of anesthesia accidents to assess the effects of human and management components on the patient risk. We develop first a classic PRA model for the patient risk per operation. We then link the probabilities of the different accident types to their root causes using a probabilistic analysis of the performance shaping factors. These factors are described here as the "state of the anesthesiologist" characterized both in terms of alertness and competence. We then analyze the effects of different management factors that affect the state of the anesthesiologist and we compute the risk reduction benefits of several risk management policies. Our data sources include the published version of the Australian Incident Monitoring Study as well as expert opinions. We conclude that patient risk could be reduced substantially by closer supervision of residents, the use of anesthesia simulators both in training and for periodic recertification, and regular medical examinations for all anesthesiologists.

Maximum entropy modeling risk of anthrax in the Republic of Kazakhstan.

PubMed

Abdrakhmanov, S K; Mukhanbetkaliyev, Y Y; Korennoy, F I; Sultanov, A A; Kadyrov, A S; Kushubaev, D B; Bakishev, T G

2017-09-01

The objective of this study was to zone the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) into risk categories according to the probability of anthrax emergence in farm animals as stipulated by the re-activation of preserved natural foci. We used historical data on anthrax morbidity in farm animals during the period 1933 - 2014, collected by the veterinary service of the RK. The database covers the entire territory of the RK and contains 4058 anthrax outbreaks tied to 1798 unique locations. Considering the strongly pronounced natural focality of anthrax, we employed environmental niche modeling (Maxent) to reveal patterns in the outbreaks' linkages to specific combinations of environmental factors. The set of bioclimatic factors BIOCLIM, derived from remote sensing data, the altitude above sea level, the land cover type, the maximum green vegetation fraction (MGVF) and the soil type were examined as explanatory variables. The model demonstrated good predictive ability, while the MGVF, the bioclimatic variables reflecting precipitation level and humidity, and the soil type were found to contribute most significantly to the model. A continuous probability surface was obtained that reflects the suitability of the study area for the emergence of anthrax outbreaks. The surface was turned into a categorical risk map by averaging the probabilities within the administrative divisions at the 2nd level and putting them into four categories of risk, namely: low, medium, high and very high risk zones, where very high risk refers to more than 50% suitability to the disease re-emergence and low risk refers to less than 10% suitability. The map indicated increased risk of anthrax re-emergence in the districts along the northern, eastern and south-eastern borders of the country. It was recommended that the national veterinary service uses the risk map for the development of contra-epizootic measures aimed at the prevention of anthrax re-emergence in historically affected regions of the RK. The map can also be considered when developing large-scale construction projects in the areas comprising preserved soil foci of anthrax. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urban seismic risk assessment: statistical repair cost data and probable structural losses based on damage scenario—correlation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Baltzopoulou, Aikaterini D.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

2016-06-01

The current seismic risk assessment is based on two discrete approaches, actual and probable, validating afterwards the produced results. In the first part of this research, the seismic risk is evaluated from the available data regarding the mean statistical repair/strengthening or replacement cost for the total number of damaged structures (180,427 buildings) after the 7/9/1999 Parnitha (Athens) earthquake. The actual evaluated seismic risk is afterwards compared to the estimated probable structural losses, which is presented in the second part of the paper, based on a damage scenario in the referring earthquake. The applied damage scenario is based on recently developed damage probability matrices (DPMs) from Athens (Greece) damage database. The seismic risk estimation refers to 750,085 buildings situated in the extended urban region of Athens. The building exposure is categorized in five typical structural types and represents 18.80 % of the entire building stock in Greece. The last information is provided by the National Statistics Service of Greece (NSSG) according to the 2000-2001 census. The seismic input is characterized by the ratio, a g/ a o, where a g is the regional peak ground acceleration (PGA) which is evaluated from the earlier estimated research macroseismic intensities, and a o is the PGA according to the hazard map of the 2003 Greek Seismic Code. Finally, the collected investigated financial data derived from different National Services responsible for the post-earthquake crisis management concerning the repair/strengthening or replacement costs or other categories of costs for the rehabilitation of earthquake victims (construction and function of settlements for earthquake homeless, rent supports, demolitions, shorings) are used to determine the final total seismic risk factor.

Quantifying risk and assessing outcome in cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Higgins, T L

1998-06-01

Quality improvement, research, and reporting of outcome results can be stratified by preoperative risk by using a logistic regression equation or scores to correct for multiple risk factors. The more than 30-fold mortality differences between lowest and highest risk patients make it critical to stratify outcome results by patient severity. Probabilities are not predictions, however, and caution must be exercised when applying scores to individuals. Outcome assessment will grow in its importance to professionals, initially in the guise of quality reporting and improvement, but increasingly as a tool for risk assessment, patient counseling, and directing therapeutic decisions based on more complete information about patient subgroups. Physicians may be called on for recommendations in choosing systems for their hospitals and communities. Therefore, it is important to have an understanding of how such systems are developed, what factors indicate adequate performance of a system, and how such systems of risk stratification should be applied in practice.

Validation of Predictors of Fall Events in Hospitalized Patients With Cancer.

PubMed

Weed-Pfaff, Samantha H; Nutter, Benjamin; Bena, James F; Forney, Jennifer; Field, Rosemary; Szoka, Lynn; Karius, Diana; Akins, Patti; Colvin, Christina M; Albert, Nancy M

2016-10-01

A seven-item cancer-specific fall risk tool (Cleveland Clinic Capone-Albert [CC-CA] Fall Risk Score) was shown to have a strong concordance index for predicting falls; however, validation of the model is needed. The aims of this study were to validate that the CC-CA Fall Risk Score, made up of six factors, predicts falls in patients with cancer and to determine if the CC-CA Fall Risk Score performs better than the Morse Fall Tool. Using a prospective, comparative methodology, data were collected from electronic health records of patients hospitalized for cancer care in four hospitals. Risk factors from each tool were recorded, when applicable. Multivariable models were created to predict the probability of a fall. A concordance index for each fall tool was calculated. The CC-CA Fall Risk Score provided higher discrimination than the Morse Fall Tool in predicting fall events in patients hospitalized for cancer management.

Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

2017-10-01

The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

Cladribine combined with high doses of arabinoside cytosine, mitoxantrone, and G-CSF (CLAG-M) is a highly effective salvage regimen in patients with refractory and relapsed acute myeloid leukemia of the poor risk: a final report of the Polish Adult Leukemia Group.

PubMed

Wierzbowska, Agnieszka; Robak, Tadeusz; Pluta, Agnieszka; Wawrzyniak, Ewa; Cebula, Barbara; Hołowiecki, Jerzy; Kyrcz-Krzemień, Sławomira; Grosicki, Sebastian; Giebel, Sebastian; Skotnicki, Aleksander B; Piatkowska-Jakubas, Beata; Kuliczkowski, Kazimierz; Kiełbiński, Marek; Zawilska, Krystyna; Kłoczko, Janusz; Wrzesień-Kuś, Agata

2008-02-01

Patients with primary refractory AML and with early relapses have unfavorable prognoses and require innovative therapeutic approaches. Purine analogs fludarabine (FA) and cladribine (2-CdA) increase cytotoxic effect of Ara-C in leukemic blasts and inhibit DNA repair mechanisms; therefore its association with Ara-C and mitoxantrone (MIT) results in a synergistic effect. In the current report, we present the final results of multi-center phase II study evaluating the efficacy and toxicity of CLAG-M salvage regimen in poor risk refractory/relapsed AML patients. The induction chemotherapy consisted of 2-CdA 5 mg/m2, Ara-C 2 g/m2, MIT 10 mg/m2, and granulocyte-colony stimulating factor. In the case of PR, a second CLAG-M was administered. Patients in CR received consolidation courses based on high doses of Ara-C and MIT with or without 2-CdA. One hundred and eighteen patients from 11 centers were registered; 78 primary resistant and 40 relapsed. Sixty-six patients (58%) achieved CR after one or two courses of CLAG-M, 49 (35%) were refractory, and 8 (7%) died early. WBC >10 g/L and age >34 yr were factors associated with increased risk of treatment failure. Hematological toxicity was the most prominent toxicity of this regimen. The probability of OS at 4 yr was 14% (95% CI 4-23%). OS was influenced by age, WBC >10 g/L and poor karyotype in both univariate and multivariate analyses. The probability of 4 yr DFS was 30% for all 66 patients in CR (95% CI 11-49%). Poor karyotype was the only factor associated with decreased probability of DFS. We conclude that CLAG-M is a well-tolerated and highly effective salvage regimen in poor risk refractory/relapsed AML.

Manual work as predictor for disability pensioning with osteoarthritis among the employed in Norway 1971-1990.

PubMed

Holte, H H; Tambs, K; Bjerkedal, T

2000-06-01

Manual work is reported to be a risk factor for becoming a disability pensioner due to osteoarthritis. This association may be due to covariation with other variables. We wanted to assess if manual work remained a risk factor after adjusting for number of hours worked, income, level of education, gender and marital status, and if the risk associated with manual work was equal in the 1970s and the 1980s. In a prospective study, data on all new disability pensioners with osteoarthritis in Norway during the two follow-up periods, 1971-1980 and 1981-1990, were analysed by logistic regression. The study include data on all subjects living in Norway and registered as 50-56 years old and employed either in the census collected in 1970 or in the census of 1980. Manual workers have nearly twice the probability of becoming a disability pensioner with osteoarthritis compared to professionals after adjusting for part-time work, income, level of education, marital status and gender. Adjusted for other risk factors, the probability of becoming a disability pensioner with osteoarthritis was three times higher in the 1980s compared to the 1970s. The relatively strong association between manual work and disability pensioning with osteoarthritis suggests difficulties in adjusting manual work patterns for a person with osteoarthritis, which may have increased during the study period as implied by the separate effect of the 1980s.

Allogeneic transplantation provides durable remission in a subset of DLBCL patients relapsing after autologous transplantation.

PubMed

Fenske, Timothy S; Ahn, Kwang W; Graff, Tara M; DiGilio, Alyssa; Bashir, Qaiser; Kamble, Rammurti T; Ayala, Ernesto; Bacher, Ulrike; Brammer, Jonathan E; Cairo, Mitchell; Chen, Andy; Chen, Yi-Bin; Chhabra, Saurabh; D'Souza, Anita; Farooq, Umar; Freytes, Cesar; Ganguly, Siddhartha; Hertzberg, Mark; Inwards, David; Jaglowski, Samantha; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A; Lazarus, Hillard M; Nathan, Sunita; Pawarode, Attaphol; Perales, Miguel-Angel; Reddy, Nishitha; Seo, Sachiko; Sureda, Anna; Smith, Sonali M; Hamadani, Mehdi

2016-07-01

For diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients progressing after autologous haematopoietic cell transplantation (autoHCT), allogeneic HCT (alloHCT) is often considered, although limited information is available to guide patient selection. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) database, we identified 503 patients who underwent alloHCT after disease progression/relapse following a prior autoHCT. The 3-year probabilities of non-relapse mortality, progression/relapse, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 30, 38, 31 and 37% respectively. Factors associated with inferior PFS on multivariate analysis included Karnofsky performance status (KPS) <80, chemoresistance, autoHCT to alloHCT interval <1-year and myeloablative conditioning. Factors associated with worse OS on multivariate analysis included KPS<80, chemoresistance and myeloablative conditioning. Three adverse prognostic factors were used to construct a prognostic model for PFS, including KPS<80 (4 points), autoHCT to alloHCT interval <1-year (2 points) and chemoresistant disease at alloHCT (5 points). This CIBMTR prognostic model classified patients into four groups: low-risk (0 points), intermediate-risk (2-5 points), high-risk (6-9 points) or very high-risk (11 points), predicting 3-year PFS of 40, 32, 11 and 6%, respectively, with 3-year OS probabilities of 43, 39, 19 and 11% respectively. In conclusion, the CIBMTR prognostic model identifies a subgroup of DLBCL patients experiencing long-term survival with alloHCT after a failed prior autoHCT. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Are there anamnestic risk factors for iron deficiency in pregnancy? Results from a feasibility study.

PubMed

Kirschner, Wolf; Dudenhausen, Joachim W; Henrich, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

The conditions of iron deficiency are highly incident in pregnancy with elevated risks for preterm birth and low birth weight. In our recent study, we found 6% of participants having anemia, whereas between 39% and 47% showed iron deficiency without anemia. In many countries in prenatal care solely hemoglobin (Hb) measurement is applied. For the gynecologists till date there is no indication to determine other markers (e.g., serum-ferritin). As iron deficiency results from an imbalance between intake and loss of iron, our aim was to find out if the risk of iron deficiency conditions can be estimated by a diet history protocol as well as questionnaires to find about iron loss. We found that the risk of having iron deficiency in upper gestational week (>=21) increased by a factor of five. Thus, additional diagnostics should be done in this group by now. Using the questionnaire as a screening instrument, we further estimated the probability of disease in terms of a positive likelihood ratio (LR+). The positive LR for the group below 21th week of gestation is 1.9 thus, increasing the post-test probability to 52% from 36% as before. Further research based on higher sample sizes will show if the ratios can be increased further.

Risk factors associated with treatment discontinuation and down-titration in type 2 diabetes patients treated with sulfonylureas.

PubMed

Iglay, Kristy; Qiu, Ying; Steve Fan, Chun-Po; Li, Zhiyi; Tang, Jackson; Laires, Pedro

2016-09-01

Sulfonylurea therapy among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) can be disrupted due to adverse events, including hypoglycemia. A retrospective study using the MarketScan claims database quantified the frequency of sulfonylurea discontinuation or down-titration and identified associated risk factors. Adult patients with an index sulfonylurea prescription between 2008 and 2012 and 1 year continuous enrollment pre- and post-index were included. Therapy changes assessed over 1 year post-index included discontinuation and down-titration. Discontinuation occurred if the date of a fill was >90 days from the end date of the preceding fill. Down-titration occurred when a fill had a lower equivalent dose than the fill on the index date. Kaplan-Meier methods estimated the probability of either discontinuation or down-titration over 12 months, and Cox regression models identified associated risk factors. A total of 104,082 sulfonylurea users were included in the study and the probability of either discontinuation or down-titration at 3, 6 and 12 months was 23.2%, 38.9%, and 52.3%, respectively. Major risk factors associated with therapy changes included post-index hypoglycemia (discontinuation hazard ratio [HR] = 1.78 [1.68, 1.89]; down-titration HR =2.79 [2.40, 3.23]) and concomitant use of insulin (discontinuation HR =1.48 [1.40, 1.57]; down-titration HR =1.82 [1.56, 2.11]). Other risk factors included younger age, female gender, use of second generation sulfonylureas, prior cardiovascular comorbidity and liver disease. The study was not able to assess unreported, potentially mild cases of hypoglycemia, nor was it able to evaluate the association between changes in therapy and HbA1c levels or body weight. More than half of T2DM patients who initiated sulfonylurea therapy discontinued or down-titrated within 1 year. Insulin use and hypoglycemia were associated with sulfonylurea therapy change.

Investigation of a scabies outbreak in a kindergarten in Constance, Germany.

PubMed

Ariza, L; Walter, B; Worth, C; Brockmann, S; Weber, M-L; Feldmeier, H

2013-03-01

In industrialized countries, scabies occurs sporadically or in the form of protracted epidemics, typically in nursing homes for elderly people. Outbreaks of scabies in a kindergarten are very rare. The main goal of our study was to investigate an outbreak of scabies in a kindergarten and to identify risk factors for the infestation with the ectoparasitosis. We investigated an outbreak of scabies in a kindergarten in the City of Constance, southern Germany, with a particular pedagogical concept. Risk factors indicating a transmission of Sarcoptes mites through body contact or via fomites were assessed using questionnaires and by following the daily routine in the kindergarten. A total of 16 cases were identified. The attack rate was significantly higher in nursery teachers (risk ratio 42.1) compared to children (risk ratio 10.5). In all cases, scabies had developed rather recently, with minimal clinical manifestations. In nursery teachers, the probability of scabies was 4.4 times higher in those teachers who hugged children regularly. Children who preferably played with their own soft toys had a lower probability of developing scabies [risk ratio 0.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.05-0.42; p = 0.04]. It seems conceivable that the particular pedagogical concept of the kindergarten favored the spread of Sarcoptes mites. We were unable to show whether transmission had preferably occurred through body contact or via fomites.

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis for Delivery of Lung Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perks, Julian R., E-mail: julian.perks@ucdmc.ucdavis.edu; Stanic, Sinisa; Stern, Robin L.

2012-07-15

Purpose: To improve the quality and safety of our practice of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), we analyzed the process following the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method. Methods: The FMEA was performed by a multidisciplinary team. For each step in the SBRT delivery process, a potential failure occurrence was derived and three factors were assessed: the probability of each occurrence, the severity if the event occurs, and the probability of detection by the treatment team. A rank of 1 to 10 was assigned to each factor, and then the multiplied ranks yielded the relative risks (risk priority numbers).more » The failure modes with the highest risk priority numbers were then considered to implement process improvement measures. Results: A total of 28 occurrences were derived, of which nine events scored with significantly high risk priority numbers. The risk priority numbers of the highest ranked events ranged from 20 to 80. These included transcription errors of the stereotactic coordinates and machine failures. Conclusion: Several areas of our SBRT delivery were reconsidered in terms of process improvement, and safety measures, including treatment checklists and a surgical time-out, were added for our practice of gantry-based image-guided SBRT. This study serves as a guide for other users of SBRT to perform FMEA of their own practice.« less

Case−Control Study of Risk Factors for Meningococcal Disease in Chile

PubMed Central

Matute, Isabel; González, Claudia; Delgado, Iris; Poffald, Lucy; Pedroni, Elena; Alfaro, Tania; Hirmas, Macarena; Nájera, Manuel; Gormaz, Ana; López, Darío; Loayza, Sergio; Ferreccio, Catterina; Gallegos, Doris; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Vial, Pablo; Aguilera, Ximena

2017-01-01

An outbreak of meningococcal disease with a case-fatality rate of 30% and caused by predominantly serogroup W of Neisseria meningitidis began in Chile in 2012. This outbreak required a case−control study to assess determinants and risk factors for infection. We identified confirmed cases during January 2012−March 2013 and selected controls by random sampling of the population, matched for age and sex, resulting in 135 case-patients and 618 controls. Sociodemographic variables, habits, and previous illnesses were studied. Analyses yielded adjusted odds ratios as estimators of the probability of disease development. Results indicated that conditions of social vulnerability, such as low income and overcrowding, as well as familial history of this disease and clinical histories, especially chronic diseases and hospitalization for respiratory conditions, increased the probability of illness. Findings should contribute to direction of intersectoral public policies toward a highly vulnerable social group to enable them to improve their living conditions and health. PMID:28628448

Predicting relapse risk in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

PubMed

Teachey, David T; Hunger, Stephen P

2013-09-01

Intensive multi-agent chemotherapy regimens and the introduction of risk-stratified therapy have substantially improved cure rates for children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). Current risk allocation schemas are imperfect, as some children are classified as lower-risk and treated with less intensive therapy relapse, while others deemed higher-risk are probably over-treated. Most cooperative groups previously used morphological clearance of blasts in blood and marrow during the initial phases of chemotherapy as a primary factor for risk group allocation; however, this has largely been replaced by the detection of minimal residual disease (MRD). Other than age and white blood cell count (WBC) at presentation, many clinical variables previously used for risk group allocation are no longer prognostic, as MRD and the presence of sentinel genetic lesions are more reliable at predicting outcome. Currently, a number of sentinel genetic lesions are used by most cooperative groups for risk stratification; however, in the near future patients will probably be risk-stratified using genomic signatures and clustering algorithms, rather than individual genetic alterations. This review will describe the clinical, biological, and response-based features known to predict relapse risk in childhood ALL, including those currently used and those likely to be used in the near future to risk-stratify therapy. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

[The concept of "psychological risk" in the professional activity of employees of fly-in fly-out method of labor organization on the example of oil and gas companies in the Far North].

PubMed

Korneeva, Ia A; Simonova, N N; Degteva, G N

2013-01-01

Professional work in shift team in the Far North contributes to the formation of unfavorable functional states and the development of destructive personality traits of employees, which lead to a decrease in the level of mental health, productivity and work efficiency With the aim to predict the professional efficiency of the rotational personnel it is necessary to determine the probability of negative psychological states, properties and qualities that will prevent its implementation, i.e, the psychological risks in professional activities. Psychological risk in the professional activity is the probability of occurrence of a professional personal destructions and the formation of unfavorable functional states of employees when performing job functions due to the prolonged negative impact of social-household and occupational factors in the lack of personal and environmental resource.

Lethal exposure: An integrated approach to pathogen transmission via environmental reservoirs.

PubMed

Turner, Wendy C; Kausrud, Kyrre L; Beyer, Wolfgang; Easterday, W Ryan; Barandongo, Zoë R; Blaschke, Elisabeth; Cloete, Claudine C; Lazak, Judith; Van Ert, Matthew N; Ganz, Holly H; Turnbull, Peter C B; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Getz, Wayne M

2016-06-06

To mitigate the effects of zoonotic diseases on human and animal populations, it is critical to understand what factors alter transmission dynamics. Here we assess the risk of exposure to lethal concentrations of the anthrax bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, for grazing animals in a natural system over time through different transmission mechanisms. We follow pathogen concentrations at anthrax carcass sites and waterholes for five years and estimate infection risk as a function of grass, soil or water intake, age of carcass sites, and the exposure required for a lethal infection. Grazing, not drinking, seems the dominant transmission route, and transmission is more probable from grazing at carcass sites 1-2 years of age. Unlike most studies of virulent pathogens that are conducted under controlled conditions for extrapolation to real situations, we evaluate exposure risk under field conditions to estimate the probability of a lethal dose, showing that not all reservoirs with detectable pathogens are significant transmission pathways.

The Correlation between Different Risk Factors of Hepatitis C and Different Genotypes

PubMed Central

Mokhtari, Mozhgan; Basirkazeruni, Hanieh; Rostami, Mojtaba

2017-01-01

Background: Hepatitis C infection is one of the health problems in the world. Several known risk factors are responsible in transmission of this infection. We are going to study the prevalence of these risk factors for different genotypes of hepatitis C and if possible, specify probable relations between each risk factor and transmission of each genotype. Materials and Methods: This is a cross-sectional study done on 270 people who had positive anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody and HCV RNA. Demographic specificity and possible risk factors were collected using a questionnaire, and statistical analysis was done by SPSS software (version 20). Chi-square test used to estimate the prevalence and relation between each qualitative risk factor and HCV genotype transmitted. Analysis of variance was used for studying the prevalence and relation between quantitative risk factors and HCV genotypes. Results: The sample size was 270 persons. Of these, 217 (80.4%) were men and 185 (68.5%) were infected with genotype Type III. Most people were in age range of 31–40 years old 92 (34%). Single people were 126 (46.7%) and 169 (62.6%) were high school and university graduated. Tattooing as a risk factor had a meaningful relation with hepatitis C genotype (P < 0.001). Conclusions: According to the findings, most people in central provinces of Iran with hepatitis C are carrying genotype III, with most prevalent risk factors such as intravenous drug use and unsafe sexual activity. Besides, tattooing had a significant association with hepatitis C genotype, so that in these groups of people, genotype I was more frequent isolated virus. PMID:28503500

Common and unique risk factors and comorbidity for 12-month mood and anxiety disorders among Canadians.

PubMed

Meng, Xiangfei; D'Arcy, Carl

2012-08-01

To explore the common and unique risk factors for mood and anxiety disorders. What sociodemographic, psychological, and physical risk factors are associated with mood and anxiety disorders and their comorbidities? What is the impact of multiple risk factors? Data from the Canadian Community Health Survey: Mental Health and Well-Being were analyzed. Appropriate sampling weights and bootstrap variance estimation were employed. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios and confidence intervals. The annual prevalence of any mood disorder was 5.2%, and of any anxiety disorder 4.7%. Major depressive episode was the most prevalent mood and anxiety disorder (4.8%), followed by social phobia, panic disorder, mania, and agoraphobia. Among people with mood and anxiety disorders, 22.4% had 2 or more disorders. Risk factors common to mood and anxiety disorders were being young, having lower household income, being unmarried, experiencing greater stress, having poorer mental health, and having a medical condition. Unique risk factors were found: major depressive episode and social phobia were associated with being born in Canada; panic disorder was associated with being Caucasian; lower education was associated with panic and agoraphobia; and poor physical health was associated with mania and agoraphobia. People who were young, unmarried, not fully employed, and had a medical condition, greater stress, poorer self-rated mental health, and dissatisfaction with life, were more likely to have a comorbid mood and (or) anxiety disorder. As the number of common risk factors increases, the probability of having mood and anxiety disorders also increases. Common and unique risk factors exist for mood and anxiety disorders. Risk factors are additive in increasing the likelihood of disease.

Prediction of the 10-year probability of gastric cancer occurrence in the Japanese population: the JPHC study cohort II.

PubMed

Charvat, Hadrien; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sawada, Norie; Shimazu, Taichi; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2016-01-15

Gastric cancer is a particularly important issue in Japan, where incidence rates are among the highest observed. In this work, we provide a risk prediction model allowing the estimation of the 10-year cumulative probability of gastric cancer occurrence. The study population consisted of 19,028 individuals from the Japanese Public Health Center cohort II who were followed-up from 1993 to 2009. A parametric survival model was used to assess the impact on the probability of gastric cancer of clinical and lifestyle-related risk factors in combination with serum anti-Helicobacter pylori antibody titres and pepsinogen I and pepsinogen II levels. Based on the resulting model, cumulative probability estimates were calculated and a simple risk scoring system was developed. A total of 412 cases of gastric cancer occurred during 270,854 person-years of follow-up. The final model included (besides the biological markers) age, gender, smoking status, family history of gastric cancer and consumption of highly salted food. The developed prediction model showed good predictive performance in terms of discrimination (optimism-corrected c-index: 0.768) and calibration (Nam and d'Agostino's χ(2) test: 14.78; p values = 0.06). Estimates of the 10-year probability of gastric cancer occurrence ranged from 0.04% (0.02, 0.1) to 14.87% (8.96, 24.14) for men and from 0.03% (0.02, 0.07) to 4.91% (2.71, 8.81) for women. In conclusion, we developed a risk prediction model for gastric cancer that combines clinical and biological markers. It might prompt individuals to modify their lifestyle habits, attend regular check-up visits or participate in screening programmes. © 2015 UICC.

[Effect of psychosocial work environment and job satisfaction on burnout syndrome among specialist physicians].

PubMed

Escribà-Agüir, Vicenta; Artazcoz, Lucía; Pérez-Hoyos, Santiago

2008-01-01

To describe the prevalence of burnout syndrome according to medical specialty and to examine the impact of work psychosocial risk factors, job satisfaction and professional characteristics on burnout syndrome among specialist physicians throughout Spain. A cross-sectional survey was carried out among 1,021 Spanish physicians. The outcome variables were the 3 dimensions of burnout syndrome: emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and personal accomplishment. The explanatory variables were work psychosocial risk factors and job satisfaction evaluated by a stress scale specifically designed for physicians. Adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated by logistic regression. The probability of high emotional exhaustion and depersonalization were greater in physicians exposed to a high level of contact with suffering and death and to a negative impact of work on home life. The probability of high emotional exhaustion was greater among physicians with a high work overload. The risk of low personal accomplishment was higher among physicians with low professional satisfaction and those without training activities. Dissatisfaction with relationships with patients and relatives had a negative effect on the 3 dimensions of burnout. Psychosocial work environment and job satisfaction have a negative effect on burnout syndrome, especially on emotional exhaustion and depersonalization.

Probability of cesarean delivery after successful external cephalic version.

PubMed

Burgos, Jorge; Iglesias, María; Pijoan, José I; Rodriguez, Leire; Fernández-Llebrez, Luis; Martínez-Astorquiza, Txantón

2015-11-01

To identify factors associated with cesarean delivery following successful external cephalic version (ECV). In a prospective study, data were obtained for ECV procedures performed at Cruces University Hospital, Spain, between March 2002 and June 2012. Women with a singleton pregnancy who had a successful, uncomplicated ECV and whose delivery was assisted at the study hospital, with the fetus in cephalic presentation, were included. A multivariate model of risk factors of cesarean delivery was developed. Among 627 women included, 92 (14.7%) delivered by cesarean. A cesarean was performed among 33 (8.5%) of 387 women with spontaneous labor versus 59 (24.6%) of 240 who were induced (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that higher BMI (P = 0.006), labor induction (P = 0.001), and prior cesarean (P < 0.001) were associated with cesarean. Time between ECV and delivery was inversely associated with probability of cesarean during the first 2 weeks. Thus, the probabilities of cesarean delivery on the first day were 0.53 (95% CI 0.35-0.71) and 0.34 (95% CI 0.18-0.51) following induced and spontaneous labor, respectively. On the seventh day, the probabilities were 0.23 (95% CI 0.15-0.32) and 0.12 (95% CI 0.07-0.18), respectively. Following ECV, induction of labor, an interval of less than 2 weeks to delivery, BMI, and previous cesarean were associated with an increased risk of cesarean. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perinatal and sociodemographic factors at birth predicting conduct problems and violence to age 18 years: comparison of Brazilian and British birth cohorts.

PubMed

Murray, Joseph; Maughan, Barbara; Menezes, Ana M B; Hickman, Matthew; MacLeod, John; Matijasevich, Alicia; Gonçalves, Helen; Anselmi, Luciana; Gallo, Erika A G; Barros, Fernando C

2015-08-01

Many low- and middle-income countries have high levels of violence. Research in high-income countries shows that risk factors in the perinatal period are significant precursors of conduct problems which can develop into violence. It is not known whether the same early influences are important in lower income settings with higher rates of violence. This study compared perinatal and sociodemographic risk factors between Brazil and Britain, and their role in explaining higher rates of conduct problems and violence in Brazil. Prospective population-based birth cohort studies were conducted in Pelotas, Brazil (N = 3,618) and Avon, Britain (N = 4,103). Eleven perinatal and sociodemographic risk factors were measured in questionnaires completed by mothers during the perinatal period. Conduct problems were measured in questionnaires completed by mothers at age 11, and violence in self-report questionnaires completed by adolescents at age 18. Conduct problems were predicted by similar risk factors in Brazil and Britain. Female violence was predicted by several of the same risk factors in both countries. However, male violence in Brazil was associated with only one risk factor, and several risk factor associations were weaker in Brazil than in Britain for both females and males. Almost 20% of the higher risk for conduct problems in Brazil compared to Britain was explained by differential exposure to risk factors. The percentage of the cross-national difference in violence explained by early risk factors was 15% for females and 8% for males. A nontrivial proportion of cross-national differences in antisocial behaviour are related to perinatal and sociodemographic conditions at the start of life. However, risk factor associations are weaker in Brazil than in Britain, and influences in other developmental periods are probably of particular importance for understanding male youth violence in Brazil. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Likelihood ratios for the prediction of preterm delivery with biomarkers.

PubMed

Hee, Lene

2011-11-01

To conduct a literature search for selected biomarkers on preterm delivery and estimate their likelihood ratios (LR). Structured review. Low and high-risk populations and women with symptoms of preterm delivery. METHODS. Publications were identified in PubMed. LR on selected biomarkers for preterm delivery. In asymptomatic women with low risk of preterm delivery, the following biomarkers gave major shifts in probability (LR above 5): twins (LR+ 10), Ureaplasma urealyticum in amniotic fluid (LR+ of 10), cervical length <25mm (LR+ 6), salival estriol (LR+ 5) and various combined tests. In asymptomatic women with high risk of preterm delivery, short cervical length (LR+ 11, LR- 0.7), high serum tumor necrosis factor-alpha (LR+ 10, LR- 0.6) gave major shifts in probability. In women with symptoms of preterm delivery, major shifts in probability can be obtained from the following amniotic fluid biomarkers: high matrix metalloproteinase-8 (LR+ 23, LR- 0.6), Ureaplasma urealyticum (LR+ 19, LR- 0.8), high interleukin (IL)-6 (LR+ 9, LR- 0.2), IL-8 (LR+10, LR- 0.2) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (LR+ 8, LR- 0.4). In serum IL-6 (LR+ 12, LR- 0.2), Cluster of Differentiation 163 (LR+9, LR-0.8) and various combined tests. Vaginal fetal fibronectin (LR+ 3 and LR- 0.5) and short cervical length (LR+ 2, LR- 0.3) gave LRs of some importance (LR below 5). Several biomarkers have been identified for assessment of risk of preterm delivery. Their clinical relevance depends on the efficacy of the interventions which can be offered to these patients. © 2011 The Author Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica© 2011 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

[Perception of risk factors for cancer in the Spanish population].

PubMed

Sanz-Barbero, Belén; Prieto-Flores, María Eugenia; Otero-García, Laura; Abt-Sacks, Analía; Bernal, Mariola; Cambas, Naiara

2014-01-01

To analyze the perception of the Spanish population of risk factors for cancer. Data were extracted from the OncoBarometro 2010 survey. Multivariate logistic models were applied to analyze the perception of the population on the importance of various risk factors: smoking, alcohol, sun, food, weight, sexually transmitted diseases, family history, radiation exposure, exposure to toxic substances and air pollution. The answers were rated on a 0 to 10 scale and were converted to low (0-6) and high (7-10) categories. The measure of association used was the prevalence ratio (PR). The greatest importance was assigned to smoking (high importance: 83.1%), whereas the least importance was assigned to weight (26.5%). In general, the probability of perceiving risk factors as important was lower among men (PR sun: 0.87; PR sexually transmitted diseases: 0.78) and increased among people who received professional advice on cancer prevention (PR alcohol: 1.11; PR sun: 1.18; PR food; 1.31; PR weight: 1.92). In particular, knowledge of symptoms and extreme fear of cancer were associated with perceiving smoking as an important risk factor, whereas a high perceived vulnerability to cancer was associated with perceiving exposure to toxic substances, pollution and smoking as important risk factors. Greater awareness is required of the association of cancer with overweight and sexually transmitted diseases. The recommendations given by health professionals on cancer prevention are key to increasing the population's awareness of risk factors for cancer. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Sex Differences and Depression in Puerto Rico.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canino, Glorisa J.; And Others

1987-01-01

Examined sex differences in rates of depressive disorders and depressive symptomatology, as measured by the Diagnostic Interview Schedule, for an island-wide probability sample of Puerto Rico. Found depression significantly more prevalent among women than men. Discusses risk factors from a sex-role and cultural perspective. (Author/KS)

Risk factors and epidemiological characteristics of new neonatal porcine diarrhoea syndrome in four Danish herds

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The epidemiology of New Neonatal Porcine Diarrhoea Syndrome (NNPDS) was studied in four selected herds. A total of 941 new born piglets in 86 litters were evaluated for five consecutive days. NNPDS is a newly emerged syndrome, characterized by diarrhoea within the first week of life, which is un-responsive to antibiotics and not associated with known pathogens. The aetiology behind the syndrome is unknown, and specific risk factors predisposing piglets to develop NNPDS also remain to be determined. The study evaluated sow and piglet-level risk factors for developing NNPDS and described the epidemiologic characteristics within four herds previously diagnosed with the syndrome. NNPDS was defined as diarrhoea at any time-point during the second to fifth day of life. Results NNPDS was observed in a total of 60% (range: 39%-89%) of first parity piglets and 36% (range: 19-65%) of piglets born by mature sows. In total of 26% of piglets had liquid faeces on the day of birth. Approximately half of these piglets developed NNPDS. In the majority of cases (50-70% of cases within herds) symptoms started on the second or third day of life. Piglets in Herd 1 had12.8 times higher probability of developing NNPDS than piglets in Herd 4. First parity piglets had a 4.1 higher probability of developing NNPDS than piglets born by mature sows. Birth weight and faecal consistency on the day of birth were minor risk factors, each significant within one herd. Conclusions The most important factors associated with NNPDS were herd of origin and sow-parity. The reason for one of the herds experiencing a considerably more severe outbreak than the others was not explained by factors addressed in this study. The epidemiological pattern of diarrhoea varied a lot between herds; however, in all herds first parity piglets seemed predisposed. This association may be explained by an infectious background of the syndrome, but further studies are needed to explain this association. PMID:25012922

Health-risk behaviors in young adolescents in the child welfare system.

PubMed

Leslie, Laurel K; James, Sigrid; Monn, Amy; Kauten, Milena C; Zhang, Jinjin; Aarons, Gregory

2010-07-01

To examine rates and patterns of health-risk behavior (e.g., sexuality, depression/suicidality, substance use, delinquency) among a national probability sample of youth active to the child welfare/child protective services system. Recent federal legislation, P.L. 110-351, encourages child welfare systems, Medicaid, and pediatric experts to collaborate to ensure youth entering foster care receive comprehensive health examinations. Analysis of baseline caregiver, caseworker, and child interviews, and assessment data for a subsample (n = 993) of youth, aged 11-15 years, from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, a national probability sample of children and adolescents undergoing investigation for abuse or neglect. Almost half of the sample (46.3%) endorsed at least one health-risk behavior. On Poisson multivariate regression modeling, factors related to higher rates of health-risk behaviors included older age, female gender, abuse history, deviant peers, limited caregiver monitoring, and poor school engagement. Given the heightened vulnerability of this population, early screening for health-risk behaviors must be prioritized. Further research should explore specific subpopulations at risk for health-risk behaviors and possible interventions to change these youths' trajectories. Copyright (c) 2010 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Personnel reliability impact on petrochemical facilities monitoring system's failure skipping probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyukov, V. N.; Naumenko, A. P.

2017-08-01

The paper dwells upon urgent issues of evaluating impact of actions conducted by complex technological systems operators on their safe operation considering application of condition monitoring systems for elements and sub-systems of petrochemical production facilities. The main task for the research is to distinguish factors and criteria of monitoring system properties description, which would allow to evaluate impact of errors made by personnel on operation of real-time condition monitoring and diagnostic systems for machinery of petrochemical facilities, and find and objective criteria for monitoring system class, considering a human factor. On the basis of real-time condition monitoring concepts of sudden failure skipping risk, static and dynamic error, monitoring systems, one may solve a task of evaluation of impact that personnel's qualification has on monitoring system operation in terms of error in personnel or operators' actions while receiving information from monitoring systems and operating a technological system. Operator is considered as a part of the technological system. Although, personnel's behavior is usually a combination of the following parameters: input signal - information perceiving, reaction - decision making, response - decision implementing. Based on several researches on behavior of nuclear powers station operators in USA, Italy and other countries, as well as on researches conducted by Russian scientists, required data on operator's reliability were selected for analysis of operator's behavior at technological facilities diagnostics and monitoring systems. The calculations revealed that for the monitoring system selected as an example, the failure skipping risk for the set values of static (less than 0.01) and dynamic (less than 0.001) errors considering all related factors of data on reliability of information perception, decision-making, and reaction fulfilled is 0.037, in case when all the facilities and error probability are under control - not more than 0.027. In case when only pump and compressor units are under control, the failure skipping risk is not more than 0.022, when the probability of error in operator's action is not more than 0.011. The work output shows that on the basis of the researches results an assessment of operators' reliability can be made in terms of almost any kind of production, but considering only technological capabilities, since operators' psychological and general training considerable vary in different production industries. Using latest technologies of engineering psychology and design of data support systems, situation assessment systems, decision-making and responding system, as well as achievement in condition monitoring in various production industries one can evaluate hazardous condition skipping risk probability considering static, dynamic errors and human factor.

Managing Lunar and Mars Mission Radiation Risks. Part 1; Cancer Risks, Uncertainties, and Shielding Effectiveness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

2005-01-01

This document addresses calculations of probability distribution functions (PDFs) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPEs). PDFs are used to test the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Monte-Carlo techniques are used to propagate uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. The cancer risk uncertainty is about four-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missins (<180 d), SPEs present the most significant risk, but one effectively mitigated by shielding. For long-duration (>180 d) lunar or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits. While shielding materials are marginally effective in reducing GCR cancer risks because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativisitc particles, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding. Therefore, improving our knowledge of space radiobiology to narrow uncertainties that lead to wide PDFs is the best approach to ensure radiation protection goals are met for space exploration.

Can better infrastructure and quality reduce hospital infant mortality rates in Mexico?

PubMed

Aguilera, Nelly; Marrufo, Grecia M

2007-02-01

Preliminary evidence from hospital discharges hints enormous disparities in infant hospital mortality rates. At the same time, public health agencies acknowledge severe deficiencies and variations in the quality of medical services across public hospitals. Despite these concerns, there is limited evidence of the contribution of hospital infrastructure and quality in explaining variations in outcomes among those who have access to medical services provided at public hospitals. This paper provides evidence to address this question. We use probabilistic econometric methods to estimate the impact of material and human resources and hospital quality on the probability that an infant dies controlling for socioeconomic, maternal and reproductive risk factors. As a measure of quality, we calculate for the first time for Mexico patient safety indicators developed by the AHRQ. We find that the probability to die is affected by hospital infrastructure and by quality. In this last regard, having been treated in a hospital with the worse quality incidence doubles the probability to die. This paper also presents evidence on the contribution of other risk factors on perinatal mortality rates. The conclusions of this paper suggest that lower infant mortality rates can be reached by implementing a set of coherent public policy actions including an increase and reorganization of hospital infrastructure, quality improvement, and increasing demand for health by poor families.

Evaluation of treatment-related mortality among paediatric cancer deaths: a population based analysis

PubMed Central

Pole, Jason D; Gibson, Paul; Ethier, Marie-Chantal; Lazor, Tanya; Johnston, Donna L; Portwine, Carol; Silva, Mariana; Alexander, Sarah; Sung, Lillian

2017-01-01

Background: Objectives were to describe the proportion of deaths due to treatment-related mortality (TRM) and to identify risk factors and probable causes of TRM among paediatric cancer deaths in a population-based cohort. Methods: We included children with cancer ⩽18 years diagnosed and treated in Ontario who died between January 2003 and December 2012. Deaths were identified using a provincial registry, the Pediatric Oncology Group of Ontario Networked Information System. Probable causes of TRM were described. Results: Among the 964 deaths identified, 821 were included. The median age at diagnosis was 6.6 years (range 0–18.8) and 51.8% had at least one relapse. Of the deaths examined, TRM occurred in 217/821 (26.4%) while 604/821 (73.6%) were due to progressive cancer. Deaths from TRM did not change over time. Using multiple regression, younger age, leukaemia diagnosis and absence of relapse were independently positively associated with TRM. The most common probable causes of TRM were respiratory, infection and haemorrhage. Conclusions: TRM was responsible for 26.4% of deaths in paediatric cancer. Underlying diagnosis, younger age and absence of relapse were associated with TRM and causes of TRM differed by diagnosis group. Future work should evaluate TRM rate and risk factors among newly diagnosed cancer patients. PMID:28095399

Psychological distress, iron deficiency, active disease and female gender are independent risk factors for fatigue in patients with ulcerative colitis

PubMed Central

Jonefjäll, Börje; Simrén, Magnus; Lasson, Anders; Öhman, Lena; Strid, Hans

2017-01-01

Background Patients with ulcerative colitis often report fatigue. Objectives To investigate prevalence of and risk factors for fatigue in patients with ulcerative colitis with active disease and during deep remission. Methods In this cross-sectional study, disease activity was evaluated with endoscopy and calprotectin, and patients were classified as having active disease (n = 133) or being in deep remission (n = 155). Blood samples were analysed to assess anaemia, iron deficiency and systemic immune activity. Patients completed questionnaires to assess fatigue, psychological distress, gastrointestinal symptoms and quality of life. Results The prevalence of high fatigue (general fatigue ≥ 13, Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory) was 40% in the full study population. Among patients with high fatigue, female gender and iron deficiency were more prevalent, and these patients had more severe disease activity and reported higher levels of anxiety, depression and decreased quality of life compared with patients with no/mild fatigue. A logistic regression analysis identified probable psychiatric disorder (odds ratio (OR) (confidence interval) 6.1 (3.1–12.2)), iron deficiency (OR 2.5 (1.2–5.1)), active disease (OR 2.2 (1.2–3.9)) and female gender (OR 2.1 (1.1–3.7)) as independent risk factors for high fatigue. Similar results were found concerning psychological distress, gender and quality of life, but immune markers did not differ in patients in deep remission with high vs. no/mild fatigue. Conclusions Probable psychiatric disorder, iron deficiency, active disease and female gender are independent risk factors for high fatigue in patients with ulcerative colitis. Low-grade immune activity does not seem to be the cause of fatigue among patients in deep remission. PMID:29435325

Factors Associated With Bites to a Child From a Dog Living in the Same Home: A Bi-National Comparison

PubMed Central

Messam, Locksley L. McV.; Kass, Philip H.; Chomel, Bruno B.; Hart, Lynette A.

2018-01-01

We conducted a veterinary clinic-based retrospective cohort study aimed at identifying child-, dog-, and home-environment factors associated with dog bites to children aged 5–15 years old living in the same home as a dog in Kingston, Jamaica (236) and San Francisco, USA (61). Secondarily, we wished to compare these factors to risk factors for dog bites to the general public. Participant information was collected via interviewer-administered questionnaire using proxy respondents. Data were analyzed using log-binomial regression to estimate relative risks and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each exposure–dog bite relationship. Exploiting the correspondence between X% confidence intervals and X% Bayesian probability intervals obtained using a uniform prior distribution, for each exposure, we calculated probabilities of the true (population) RRs ≥ 1.25 or ≤0.8, for positive or negative associations, respectively. Boys and younger children were at higher risk for bites, than girls and older children, respectively. Dogs living in a home with no yard space were at an elevated risk (RR = 2.97; 95% CI: 1.06–8.33) of biting a child living in the same home, compared to dogs that had yard space. Dogs routinely allowed inside for some portion of the day (RR = 3.00; 95% CI: 0.94–9.62) and dogs routinely allowed to sleep in a family member’s bedroom (RR = 2.82; 95% CI: 1.17–6.81) were also more likely to bite a child living in the home than those that were not. In San Francisco, but less so in Kingston, bites were inversely associated with the number of children in the home. While in Kingston, but not in San Francisco, smaller breeds and dogs obtained for companionship were at higher risk for biting than larger breeds and dogs obtained for protection, respectively. Overall, for most exposures, the observed associations were consistent with population RRs of practical importance (i.e., RRs ≥ 1.25 or ≤0.8). Finally, we found substantial consistency between risk factors for bites to children and previously reported risk factors for general bites. PMID:29780810

Dogma disputed: potential endemic heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus in Australia.

PubMed

Chapman, S

1992-06-01

The concept of tertiary sexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been central to government efforts to communicate notions of risk to heterosexuals in Australia. Data on heterosexually transmitted acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and HIV for Australia are reviewed with emphasis given to the probability of misclassification bias in the heterosexually acquired and 'other/undetermined' categories. Tertiary cases are almost certainly rare in Australia, with little evidence of any increase in their incidence since the first cases were recorded. Three factors (low probability of exposure, the infectivity of HIV and a comparatively low rate of sexual partner change) make it improbable that Australian heterosexuals with no risk factors will experience endemic HIV infection, with a caveat to this conclusion lying in the potential of Australian sex tourism to Southeast Asia for introducing HIV into the Australian heterosexual population. Four hegemonic factors which have acted to suppress any serious debate of the notion that HIV in Australia is unlikely to become endemic among heterosexuals are discussed: the political 'democratization' of risk inspired by concerns that gay men should not be further vilified as a victim group; the preventive imperative; a reluctance among health educators to question the very foundations of the message they are employed to deliver; and a reluctance to curtail 'Trojan horse' benefits to sexually transmissible disease prevention engendered by HIV education promoting safe sex messages.

Disparities in adverse childhood experiences among sexual minority and heterosexual adults: results from a multi-state probability-based sample.

PubMed

Andersen, Judith P; Blosnich, John

2013-01-01

Adverse childhood experiences (e.g., physical, sexual and emotional abuse, neglect, exposure to domestic violence, parental discord, familial mental illness, incarceration and substance abuse) constitute a major public health problem in the United States. The Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) scale is a standardized measure that captures multiple developmental risk factors beyond sexual, physical and emotional abuse. Lesbian, gay, and bisexual (i.e., sexual minority) individuals may experience disproportionately higher prevalence of adverse childhood experiences. To examine, using the ACE scale, prevalence of childhood physical, emotional, and sexual abuse and childhood household dysfunction among sexual minority and heterosexual adults. Analyses were conducted using a probability-based sample of data pooled from three U.S. states' Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) surveys (Maine, Washington, Wisconsin) that administered the ACE scale and collected information on sexual identity (n = 22,071). Compared with heterosexual respondents, gay/lesbian and bisexual individuals experienced increased odds of six of eight and seven of eight adverse childhood experiences, respectively. Sexual minority persons had higher rates of adverse childhood experiences (IRR = 1.66 gay/lesbian; 1.58 bisexual) compared to their heterosexual peers. Sexual minority individuals have increased exposure to multiple developmental risk factors beyond physical, sexual and emotional abuse. We recommend the use of the Adverse Childhood Experiences scale in future research examining health disparities among this minority population.

Efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Pedigree Data with the Sum-Product Algorithm.

PubMed

Engelhardt, Alexander; Rieger, Anna; Tresch, Achim; Mansmann, Ulrich

2016-01-01

We analyze data sets consisting of pedigrees with age at onset of colorectal cancer (CRC) as phenotype. The occurrence of familial clusters of CRC suggests the existence of a latent, inheritable risk factor. We aimed to compute the probability of a family possessing this risk factor as well as the hazard rate increase for these risk factor carriers. Due to the inheritability of this risk factor, the estimation necessitates a costly marginalization of the likelihood. We propose an improved EM algorithm by applying factor graphs and the sum-product algorithm in the E-step. This reduces the computational complexity from exponential to linear in the number of family members. Our algorithm is as precise as a direct likelihood maximization in a simulation study and a real family study on CRC risk. For 250 simulated families of size 19 and 21, the runtime of our algorithm is faster by a factor of 4 and 29, respectively. On the largest family (23 members) in the real data, our algorithm is 6 times faster. We introduce a flexible and runtime-efficient tool for statistical inference in biomedical event data with latent variables that opens the door for advanced analyses of pedigree data. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

[Accidental falls in the elderly].

PubMed

Heinimann, Niklas B; Kressig, Reto W

2014-06-18

Falls in the elderly are common with consecutive high mortality and morbidity. Recent consecutive data focus on identification and therapy of intrinsic risk factors. Sarcopenia, imbalance and gait disorders represent the major risk factors. Sarcopenia is caused by a disequilibrium of protein synthesis and breakdown, probably in consequence of age-related changes in protein metabolism. Protein supplements in combination with strength training shows the best benefit. Disorders in balance and gait are caused by age-related or pathologic changes in a complex regulation system of gait. The individual fall risk correlates with the gait variability and even increases with bad dual task performance. Activities with high requirements of attention and body awareness are the most effective prevention for falls in the elderly (-50%).

Lifetime competing risks between coronary heart disease mortality and other causes of death during 50years of follow-up.

PubMed

Puddu, Paolo Emilio; Piras, Paolo; Menotti, Alessandro

2017-02-01

To study coronary heart disease (CHD) death versus 11 other causes of death using the cumulative incidence function (CIF) and the competing risks procedures to disentangle the differential role of risk factors for different end-points. Standard Cox and Fine-Gray models among 1712 middle-aged men were compared during 50years of follow-up. CHD death was the primary event, while deaths from 11 selected causes, mutually exclusive from the primary end-point, were considered as secondary events. Reverse solutions were also performed. We considered 10 selected risk factors. CHD death risk was the second highest among 12 mostly specific causes of death. Some risk factors were specific: serum cholesterol for CHD death whereas, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking and age may have a differential role in other causes of death. Application of the Fine-Gray model based on CIF enabled to dissect, at least in part, the respective role that baseline covariates may have to segregate the probabilities of two types of death in contrast from each other. They also point to the absence of contributing significance for some of the selected risk factors and this calls for a parsimonious approach in predictions. The relative rarity of competing risk challenges when defining the risk factors role at long-term needs now be corrected since we have clearly shown, with Fine-Gray model, at direct or reverse use, that comparing different end-points heavily influences the risk factor predictive capacity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trabecular bone score (TBS): Method and applications.

PubMed

Martineau, P; Leslie, W D

2017-11-01

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a texture index derived from standard lumbar spine dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images and provides information about the underlying bone independent of the bone mineral density (BMD). Several salient observations have emerged. Numerous studies have examined the relationship between TBS and fracture risk and have shown that lower TBS values are associated with increased risk for major osteoporotic fracture in postmenopausal women and older men, with this result being independent of BMD values and other clinical risk factors. Therefore, despite being derived from standard DXA images, the information contained in TBS is independent and complementary to the information provided by BMD and the FRAX® tool. A procedure to generate TBS-adjusted FRAX probabilities has become available with the resultant predicted fracture risks shown to be more accurate than the standard FRAX tool. With these developments, TBS has emerged as a clinical tool for improved fracture risk prediction and guiding decisions regarding treatment initiation, particularly for patients with FRAX probabilities around an intervention threshold. In this article, we review the development, validation, clinical application, and limitations of TBS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review of NASA approach to space radiation risk assessments for Mars exploration.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A

2015-02-01

Long duration space missions present unique radiation protection challenges due to the complexity of the space radiation environment, which includes high charge and energy particles and other highly ionizing radiation such as neutrons. Based on a recommendation by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, a 3% lifetime risk of exposure-induced death for cancer has been used as a basis for risk limitation by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for low-Earth orbit missions. NASA has developed a risk-based approach to radiation exposure limits that accounts for individual factors (age, gender, and smoking history) and assesses the uncertainties in risk estimates. New radiation quality factors with associated probability distribution functions to represent the quality factor's uncertainty have been developed based on track structure models and recent radiobiology data for high charge and energy particles. The current radiation dose limits are reviewed for spaceflight and the various qualitative and quantitative uncertainties that impact the risk of exposure-induced death estimates using the NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) model. NSCR estimates of the number of "safe days" in deep space to be within exposure limits and risk estimates for a Mars exploration mission are described.

Delivery at Term: Impact of University Education by Week of Gestation.

PubMed

Auger, Nathalie; Leduc, Line; Naimi, Ashley I; Fraser, William D

2016-02-01

Data on risk factors for early term delivery are scant despite greater complications in infants born at 37 and 38 weeks' gestation. We determined the probability of delivery by gestational week at term according to level of maternal education, an established risk factor for preterm birth. We analyzed 2 319 697 live singleton births at term (≥37 weeks) in Quebec from 1981 to 2010. We estimated hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of delivery according to level of maternal education, adjusting for individual characteristics. The main outcome measure was the probability of delivery at term by week of gestation for women with university education versus high school education. Early term birth at 37 and 38 weeks of gestation was less common for university-educated women (23.1%) than for high school-educated women (25.8%; P < 0.001). Compared with women with a high school education, university-educated women had a 15% lower probability of delivery at 37 to 38 weeks (95% CI: 0.84 to 0.86), a 4% lower probability of delivery at 39 weeks (95% CI: 0.96 to 0.97) and a 2% lower probability of delivery at 40 weeks (95% CI: 0.97 to 0.98). University-educated women were, however, more likely to deliver at 41 weeks. A higher level of education was associated with longer duration of pregnancy at term. Women who were university-educated had a lower chance of delivery at 37, 38, 39, and even 40 weeks of gestation. Clinicians should be aware that women with lower levels of education are more likely to deliver earlier at term. Copyright © 2016 Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Model to Estimate the Risk of Breast Cancer-Related Lymphedema: Combinations of Treatment-Related Factors of the Number of Dissected Axillary Nodes, Adjuvant Chemotherapy, and Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Myungsoo; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Sung Uk

2013-07-01

Purpose: The development of breast cancer-related lymphedema (LE) is closely related to the number of dissected axillary lymph nodes (N-ALNs), chemotherapy, and radiation therapy. In this study, we attempted to estimate the risk of LE based on combinations of these treatment-related factors. Methods and Materials: A total of 772 patients with breast cancer, who underwent primary surgery with axillary lymph node dissection from 2004 to 2009, were retrospectively analyzed. Adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) was performed in 677 patients (88%). Among patients who received radiation therapy (n=675), 274 (35%) received supraclavicular radiation therapy (SCRT). Results: At a median follow-up of 5.1 yearsmore » (range, 3.0-8.3 years), 127 patients had developed LE. The overall 5-year cumulative incidence of LE was 17%. Among the 127 affected patients, LE occurred within 2 years after surgery in 97 (76%) and within 3 years in 115 (91%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that N-ALN (hazard ratio [HR], 2.81; P<.001), ACT (HR, 4.14; P=.048), and SCRT (HR, 3.24; P<.001) were independent risk factors for LE. The total number of risk factors correlated well with the incidence of LE. Patients with no risk or 1 risk factor showed a significantly lower 5-year probability of LE (3%) than patients with 2 (19%) or 3 risk factors (38%) (P<.001). Conclusions: The risk factors associated with LE were N-ALN, ACT, and SCRT. A simple model using combinations of these factors may help clinicians predict the risk of LE.« less

Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; Weingartner, Rolf; Quinn, Niall; Coxon, Gemma; Neal, Jeffrey; Freer, Jim; Bates, Paul

2018-05-01

The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

Analysis of risk factors for T. brucei rhodesiense sleeping sickness within villages in south-east Uganda

PubMed Central

Zoller, Thomas; Fèvre, Eric M; Welburn, Susan C; Odiit, Martin; Coleman, Paul G

2008-01-01

Background Sleeping sickness (HAT) caused by T.b. rhodesiense is a major veterinary and human public health problem in Uganda. Previous studies have investigated spatial risk factors for T.b. rhodesiense at large geographic scales, but none have properly investigated such risk factors at small scales, i.e. within affected villages. In the present work, we use a case-control methodology to analyse both behavioural and spatial risk factors for HAT in an endemic area. Methods The present study investigates behavioural and occupational risk factors for infection with HAT within villages using a questionnaire-based case-control study conducted in 17 villages endemic for HAT in SE Uganda, and spatial risk factors in 4 high risk villages. For the spatial analysis, the location of homesteads with one or more cases of HAT up to three years prior to the beginning of the study was compared to all non-case homesteads. Analysing spatial associations with respect to irregularly shaped geographical objects required the development of a new approach to geographical analysis in combination with a logistic regression model. Results The study was able to identify, among other behavioural risk factors, having a family member with a history of HAT (p = 0.001) as well as proximity of a homestead to a nearby wetland area (p < 0.001) as strong risk factors for infection. The novel method of analysing complex spatial interactions used in the study can be applied to a range of other diseases. Conclusion Spatial risk factors for HAT are maintained across geographical scales; this consistency is useful in the design of decision support tools for intervention and prevention of the disease. Familial aggregation of cases was confirmed for T. b. rhodesiense HAT in the study and probably results from shared behavioural and spatial risk factors amongmembers of a household. PMID:18590541

Ertapenem-associated neurotoxicity in the Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) population: a case series.

PubMed

Patel, Ursula C; Fowler, Mallory A

2017-09-06

Context Ertapenem, a broad spectrum carbapenem antibiotic, is used often in Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) patients due to increased risk factors for multi-drug resistant (MDR) infections in this population. Neurotoxicity, specifically seizures, due to ertapenem is a known adverse effect and has been described previously. Other manifestations such as delirium and visual hallucinations have rarely been reported, and no literature, to the best of our knowledge, specifically describes these effects solely in the SCI population. Findings Four cases of mental status changes and hallucinations in SCI patients attributed to ertapenem therapy are described. Onset of symptoms began between one and six days following initiation of ertapenem and resolved between two to 42 days following discontinuation. Based on the Naranjo probability scale, a probable relationship exists between the adverse events and ertapenem for three out of the four cases. Possible overestimation of renal function and hypoalbuminemia may be contributing factors to the noted adverse reactions. Conclusion/Clinical Relevance The cases described highlight the importance of recognizing ertapenem-associated hallucinations in SCI patients. The population is particularly vulnerable due to risk factors for MDR infections necessitating ertapenem use, possible overestimation of renal function, and a high prevalence of hypoalbuminemia.

Thinking versus feeling: differentiating between cognitive and affective components of perceived cancer risk.

PubMed

Janssen, Eva; van Osch, Liesbeth; Lechner, Lilian; Candel, Math; de Vries, Hein

2012-01-01

Despite the increased recognition of affect in guiding probability estimates, perceived risk has been mainly operationalised in a cognitive way and the differentiation between rational and intuitive judgements is largely unexplored. This study investigated the validity of a measurement instrument differentiating cognitive and affective probability beliefs and examined whether behavioural decision making is mainly guided by cognition or affect. Data were obtained from four surveys focusing on smoking (N=268), fruit consumption (N=989), sunbed use (N=251) and sun protection (N=858). Correlational analyses showed that affective likelihood was more strongly correlated with worry compared to cognitive likelihood and confirmatory factor analysis provided support for a two-factor model of perceived likelihood instead of a one-factor model (i.e. cognition and affect combined). Furthermore, affective likelihood was significantly associated with the various outcome variables, whereas the association for cognitive likelihood was absent in three studies. The findings provide support for the construct validity of the measures used to assess cognitive and affective likelihood. Since affective likelihood might be a better predictor of health behaviour than the commonly used cognitive operationalisation, both dimensions should be considered in future research.

Roles of vascular and metabolic components in cognitive dysfunction of Alzheimer disease: short- and long-term modification by non-genetic risk factors.

PubMed

Sato, Naoyuki; Morishita, Ryuichi

2013-11-05

It is well known that a specific set of genetic and non-genetic risk factors contributes to the onset of Alzheimer disease (AD). Non-genetic risk factors include diabetes, hypertension in mid-life, and probably dyslipidemia in mid-life. This review focuses on the vascular and metabolic components of non-genetic risk factors. The mechanisms whereby non-genetic risk factors modify cognitive dysfunction are divided into four components, short- and long-term effects of vascular and metabolic factors. These consist of (1) compromised vascular reactivity, (2) vascular lesions, (3) hypo/hyperglycemia, and (4) exacerbated AD histopathological features, respectively. Vascular factors compromise cerebrovascular reactivity in response to neuronal activity and also cause irreversible vascular lesions. On the other hand, representative short-term effects of metabolic factors on cognitive dysfunction occur due to hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia. Non-genetic risk factors also modify the pathological manifestations of AD in the long-term. Therefore, vascular and metabolic factors contribute to aggravation of cognitive dysfunction in AD through short-term and long-term effects. β-amyloid could be involved in both vascular and metabolic components. It might be beneficial to support treatment in AD patients by appropriate therapeutic management of non-genetic risk factors, considering the contributions of these four elements to the manifestation of cognitive dysfunction in individual patients, though all components are not always present. It should be clarified how these four components interact with each other. To answer this question, a clinical prospective study that follows up clinical features with respect to these four components: (1) functional MRI or SPECT for cerebrovascular reactivity, (2) MRI for ischemic lesions and atrophy, (3) clinical episodes of hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, (4) amyloid-PET and tau-PET for pathological features of AD, would be required.

Know the risk, take the win: how executive functions and probability processing influence advantageous decision making under risk conditions.

PubMed

Brand, Matthias; Schiebener, Johannes; Pertl, Marie-Theres; Delazer, Margarete

2014-01-01

Recent models on decision making under risk conditions have suggested that numerical abilities are important ingredients of advantageous decision-making performance, but empirical evidence is still limited. The results of our first study show that logical reasoning and basic mental calculation capacities predict ratio processing and that ratio processing predicts decision making under risk. In the second study, logical reasoning together with executive functions predicted probability processing (numeracy and probability knowledge), and probability processing predicted decision making under risk. These findings suggest that increasing an individual's understanding of ratios and probabilities should lead to more advantageous decisions under risk conditions.

[Risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis].

PubMed

Tapia-Rombo, C A; Velasco-Lavín, M R; Nieto-Caldelas, A

1993-09-01

The purpose of the present study is to compare risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) between two group: group A, newborns with the disease and group B, newborns with other diseases different from NEC, in order to know if these risk factors are more frequent or not in the first group. We assessed the clinical records of all the patients hospitalized in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and Neonatology Service of the La Raza General Hospital between 1987 and 1991 with the diagnosis of NEC. They were compared with 65 clinical records chosen at random of patients hospitalized in the same Unit with other diagnosis at the same time, and who were discharged by improvement or deceased. In all of them were look for known risk factors for NEC generally accepted such as: prematurity, neonatal asphyxia, poliglobulia, cyanotic congenital heart disease, patent ductus arteriosus, respiratory distress syndrome, catheterization of umbilical vessels, early feeding of elevated formula increases, exchange exchange transfusion, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, infection, etc. Just 25 records of the possible 50 with the diagnosis of NEC full filled inclusion criteria. There were no statistically significant difference in weight, sex, mortality and known risk factors of NEC between both groups. Were concluded that NEC is a disease of unknown etiology that should be studied more thoroughly. The known risk factors must be avoided because the patient susceptibility probably play an important role.

A Clinical Framework to Facilitate Risk Stratification When Considering an Active Surveillance Alternative to Immediate Biopsy and Surgery in Papillary Microcarcinoma.

PubMed

Brito, Juan P; Ito, Yasuhiro; Miyauchi, Akira; Tuttle, R Michael

2016-01-01

The 2015 American Thyroid Association thyroid cancer management guidelines endorse an active surveillance management approach as an alternative to immediate biopsy and surgery in subcentimeter thyroid nodules with highly suspicious ultrasonographic characteristics and in cytologically confirmed very low risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). However, the guidelines provide no specific recommendations with regard to the optimal selection of patients for an active surveillance management approach. This article describes a risk-stratified clinical decision-making framework that was developed by the thyroid cancer disease management team at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center as the lessons learned from Kuma Hospital in Japan were applied to a cohort of patients with probable or proven papillary microcarcinoma (PMC) who were being evaluated for an active surveillance management approach in the United States. A risk-stratified approach to the evaluation of patients with probable or proven PMC being considered for an active surveillance management approach requires an evaluation of three interrelated but distinct domains: (i) tumor/neck ultrasound characteristics (e.g., size of the primary tumor, the location of the tumor within the thyroid gland); (ii) patient characteristics (e.g., age, comorbidities, willingness to accept observation); and (iii) medical team characteristics (e.g., availability and experience of the multidisciplinary team). Based on an analysis of the critical factors within each of these domains, patients with probable or proven PTC can then be classified as ideal, appropriate, or inappropriate candidates for active surveillance. Risk stratification utilizing the proposed decision-making framework will improve the ability of clinicians to recognize individual patients with proven or probable PMC who are most likely to benefit from an active surveillance management option while at the same time identifying patients with proven or probable PMC that would be better served with an upfront biopsy and surgical management approach.

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

2016-01-01

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Cardiovascular risks in firefighters: implications for occupational health nurse practice.

PubMed

Byczek, Lance; Walton, Surrey M; Conrad, Karen M; Reichelt, Paul A; Samo, Daniel G

2004-02-01

Limited cardiovascular risk data are available for firefighters. This cross sectional study of data collected during annual physical examinations described the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among firefighters (N = 200) and examined relationships between body mass index (BMI) and other cardiovascular risk factors. Evidence based guidelines were used to determine prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and Framingham risk scoring was used to estimate probability of coronary heart disease (CHD). Firefighters ranged in age from 22 to 64 with a mean of 41. The prevalence of obesity, elevated total cholesterol, and elevated blood pressure in firefighters exceeded Healthy People 2010 targets. In addition, their prevalence of obesity, low high density lipoprotein (HDL), high low density lipoprotein (LDL), and high total cholesterol levels was higher relative to the general population. Elevated body mass index (BMI) values had positive significant (p < or = .01) associations with elevated blood pressures, triglycerides, and glucose levels, and a negative significant (p < .05) association with lower HDL cholesterol levels. Fire department worksite health and fitness policies and programs should proactively target firefighters' cardiovascular risks. Future firefighter related intervention research will benefit from considering not only the individual determinants of cardiovascular disease, but also the ecological framework that includes the influences of workplace and external environmental factors.

Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China

PubMed Central

Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

2017-01-01

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990–2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management. PMID:28207837

Community-acquired pneumonia due to gram-negative bacteria and pseudomonas aeruginosa: incidence, risk, and prognosis.

PubMed

Arancibia, Francisco; Bauer, Torsten T; Ewig, Santiago; Mensa, Josep; Gonzalez, Julia; Niederman, Michael S; Torres, Antoni

2002-09-09

Initial empirical antimicrobial treatment of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is based on expected microbial patterns. We determined the incidence of, prognosis of, and risk factors for CAP due to gram-negative bacteria (GNB), including Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Consecutive patients with CAP hospitalized in our 1000-bed tertiary care university teaching hospital were studied prospectively. Independent risk factors for CAP due to GNB and for death were identified by means of stepwise logistic regression analysis. From January 1, 1997, until December 31, 1998, 559 hospitalized patients with CAP were included. Sixty patients (11%) had CAP due to GNB, including P aeruginosa in 39 (65%). Probable aspiration (odds ratio [OR], 2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-5.2; P =.04), previous hospital admission (OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.7-7.1; P<.001), previous antimicrobial treatment (OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.01-3.7; P =.049), and the presence of pulmonary comorbidity (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.5-5.5; P =.02) were independent predictors of GNB. In a subgroup analysis of P aeruginosa pneumonia, pulmonary comorbidity (OR, 5.8; 95% CI, 2.2-15.3; P<.001) and previous hospital admission (OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.8-8.3; P =.02) were predictive. Infection with GNB was independently associated with death (relative risk, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.6-7.4; P =.002). In our setting, in every tenth patient with CAP, an etiology due to GNB has to be considered. Patients with probable aspiration, previous hospitalization or antimicrobial treatment, and pulmonary comorbidity are especially prone to GNB. These pathogens are also an independent risk factor for death in patients with CAP.

Applying Latent Class Analysis to Risk Stratification for Perioperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Intraabdominal General Surgery.

PubMed

Kim, Minjae; Wall, Melanie M; Li, Guohua

2016-07-01

Perioperative risk stratification is often performed using individual risk factors without consideration of the syndemic of these risk factors. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify the classes of comorbidities and risk factors associated with perioperative mortality in patients presenting for intraabdominal general surgery. The 2005 to 2010 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to obtain a cohort of patients undergoing intraabdominal general surgery. Risk factors and comorbidities were entered into LCA models to identify the latent classes, and individuals were assigned to a class based on the highest posterior probability of class membership. Relative risk regression was used to determine the associations between the latent classes and 30-day mortality, with adjustments for procedure. A 9-class model was fit using LCA on 466,177 observations. After combining classes with similar adjusted mortality risks, 5 risk classes were obtained. Compared with the class with average mortality risk (class 4), the risk ratios (95% confidence interval) ranged from 0.020 (0.014-0.027) in the lowest risk class (class 1) to 6.75 (6.46-7.02) in the highest risk class. After adjusting for procedure and ASA physical status, the latent classes remained significantly associated with 30-day mortality. The addition of the risk class variable to a model containing ASA physical status and surgical procedure demonstrated a significant increase in the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (0.892 vs 0.915; P < 0.0001). Latent classes of risk factors and comorbidities in patients undergoing intraabdominal surgery are predictive of 30-day mortality independent of the ASA physical status and improve risk prediction with the ASA physical status.

Adolescents display distinctive tolerance to ambiguity and to uncertainty during risky decision making

PubMed Central

van den Bos, Wouter; Hertwig, Ralph

2017-01-01

Although actuarial data indicate that risk-taking behavior peaks in adolescence, laboratory evidence for this developmental spike remains scarce. One possible explanation for this incongruity is that in the real world adolescents often have only vague information about the potential consequences of their behavior and the likelihoods of those consequences, whereas in the lab these are often clearly stated. How do adolescents behave under such more realistic conditions of ambiguity and uncertainty? We asked 105 participants aged from 8 to 22 years to make three types of choices: (1) choices between options whose possible outcomes and probabilities were fully described (choices under risk); (2) choices between options whose possible outcomes were described but whose probability information was incomplete (choices under ambiguity), and (3) choices between unknown options whose possible outcomes and probabilities could be explored (choices under uncertainty). Relative to children and adults, two adolescent-specific markers emerged. First, adolescents were more accepting of ambiguity; second, they were also more accepting of uncertainty (as indicated by shorter pre-decisional search). Furthermore, this tolerance of the unknown was associated with motivational, but not cognitive, factors. These findings offer novel insights into the psychology of adolescent risk taking. PMID:28098227

Characterization of the Human Risk of Salmonellosis Related to Consumption of Pork Products in Different E.U. Countries Based on a QMRA.

PubMed

Vigre, Håkan; Barfoed, Kristen; Swart, Arno N; Simons, Robin R L; Hill, Andrew A; Snary, Emma L; Hald, Tine

2016-03-01

In response to the European Food Safety Authority's wish to assess the reduction of human cases of salmonellosis by implementing control measures at different points in the farm-to-consumption chain for pork products, a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was developed. The model simulated the occurrence of Salmonella from the farm to consumption of pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready-to-eat sausage, respectively, and a dose-response model was used to estimate the probability of illness at consumption. The QMRA has a generic structure with a defined set of variables, whose values are changed according to the E.U. member state (MS) of interest. In this article we demonstrate the use of the QMRA in four MSs, representing different types of countries. The predicted probability of illness from the QMRA was between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million per serving across all three product types. Fermented ready-to-eat sausage imposed the highest probability of illness per serving in all countries, whereas the risks per serving of minced meat and pork chops were similar within each MS. For each of the products, the risk varied by a factor of 100 between the four MSs. The influence of lack of information for different variables was assessed by rerunning the model with alternative, more extreme, values. Out of the large number of uncertain variables, only a few of them have a strong influence on the probability of illness, in particular those describing the preparation at home and consumption. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Health impacts of large releases of radionuclides. Mental health, stress and risk perception: insights from psychological research.

PubMed

Renn, O

1997-01-01

Risk perceptions are only slightly correlated with the expected values of a probability distribution for negative health impacts. Psychometric studies have documented that context variables such as dread or personal control are important predictors for the perceived seriousness of risk. Studies about cultural patterns of risk perceptions emphasize different response sets to risk information, depending on cultural priorities such as social justice versus personal freedom. This chapter reports the major psychological research results pertaining to the factors that govern individual risk perception and discusses the psychometric effects due to people's risk perception and the experience of severe stress. The relative importance of the psychometric context variables, the signals pertaining to each health risks and symbolic beliefs are explained.

Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhong, Bin-Yan; He, Shi-Cheng; Zhu, Hai-Dong

PurposeWe aim to determine the predictors of new adjacent vertebral fractures (AVCFs) after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) and to construct a risk prediction score to estimate a 2-year new AVCF risk-by-risk factor condition.Materials and MethodsPatients with OVCFs who underwent their first PVP between December 2006 and December 2013 at Hospital A (training cohort) and Hospital B (validation cohort) were included in this study. In training cohort, we assessed the independent risk predictors and developed the probability of new adjacent OVCFs (PNAV) score system using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The accuracy ofmore » this system was then validated in both training and validation cohorts by concordance (c) statistic.Results421 patients (training cohort: n = 256; validation cohort: n = 165) were included in this study. In training cohort, new AVCFs after the first PVP treatment occurred in 33 (12.9%) patients. The independent risk factors were intradiscal cement leakage and preexisting old vertebral compression fracture(s). The estimated 2-year absolute risk of new AVCFs ranged from less than 4% in patients with neither independent risk factors to more than 45% in individuals with both factors.ConclusionsThe PNAV score is an objective and easy approach to predict the risk of new AVCFs.« less

Risk factors and biomarkers of life-threatening cancers

PubMed Central

Autier, Philippe

2015-01-01

There is growing evidence that risk factors for cancer occurrence and for cancer death are not necessarily the same. Knowledge of cancer aggressiveness risk factors (CARF) may help in identifying subjects at high risk of developing a potentially deadly cancer (and not just any cancer). The availability of CARFs may have positive consequences for health policies, medical practice, and the search for biomarkers. For instance, cancer chemoprevention and cancer screening of subjects with CARFs would probably be more ethical and cost-effective than recommending chemoprevention and screening to entire segments of the population. Also, the harmful consequences of chemoprevention and of screening would be reduced while effectiveness would be optimised. We present examples of CARF already in use (e.g. mutations of the breast cancer (BRCA) gene), of promising avenues for the discovery of biomarkers thanks to the investigation of CARFs (e.g. breast radiological density and systemic inflammation), and of biomarkers commonly used that are not real CARFs (e.g. certain mammography images, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, nevus number). PMID:26635900

Electronic Health Records to Evaluate and Account for Non-response Bias: A Survey of Patients Using Chronic Opioid Therapy.

PubMed

Shortreed, Susan M; Von Korff, Michael; Thielke, Stephen; LeResche, Linda; Saunders, Kathleen; Rosenberg, Dori; Turner, Judith A

2016-01-01

In observational studies concerning drug use and misuse, persons misusing drugs may be less likely to respond to surveys. However, little is known about differences in drug use and drug misuse risk factors between survey respondents and nonrespondents. Using electronic health record (EHR) data, we compared respondents and non-respondents in a telephone survey of middle-aged and older chronic opioid therapy patients to assess predictors of interview nonresponse. We compared general patient characteristics, specific opioid misuse risk factors, and patterns of opioid use associated with increased risk of opioid misuse. Inverse probability weights were calculated to account for nonresponse bias by EHR-measured covariates. EHR-measured covariate distributions for the full sample (nonrespondents and respondents), the unweighted respondent sample, and the inverse probability weighted respondent sample are reported. We present weighted and unweighted prevalence of self-reported opioid misuse risk factors. Among 2489 potentially eligible patients, 1477 (59.3%) completed interviews. Response rates differed with age (45-54 years, 51.8%; 55-64 years, 58.7%; 65-74 years, 67.9%; and 75 years or older, 59.9%). Tobacco users had lower response rates than did nonusers (53.5% versus 60.9%). Charlson comorbidity score was also related to response rates. Individuals with a Charlson score of 2 had the highest response rate at 65.6%; response rates were lower amoung patients with the lowest (the patients with the fewest health conditions had response rates of 56.7-60.0%) and the highest Charlson scores (patients with the most health conditions had response rates of 52.2-56.0%). These bivariate relationships persisted in adjusted multivariable logistic regression models predicting survey response. Response rates of persons with and without specific opioid misuse risk factors were similar (e.g., 58.7% for persons with substance abuse diagnoses, 59.4% for those without). Opioid use patterns associated with opioid misuse did not predict response rates (e.g., 60.6% versus 59.2% for those receiving versus not receiving opioids from 3 or more physicians outside their primary care clinic). Very few patient characteristics predicted non-response; thus, inverse probability weights accounting for nonresponse had little impact on the distributions of EHR-measured covariates or self-reported measures related to opioid use and misuse. Response rates differed by characteristics that predict nonresponse in general health surveys (age, tobacco use), but did not appear to differ by specific patient or drug use risk factors for prescription opioid misuse among middle- and older-aged chronic opioid therapy patients. When observational studies are conducted in health plan populations, electronic health records may be used to evaluate nonresponse bias and to adjust for variables predicting interview nonresponse, complementing other research uses of EHR data in observational studies.

["Extended suicide". Homicide-suicide under psychopathological and criminological aspects].

PubMed

Hellen, F; Lange-Asschenfeldt, C; Huckenbeck, W; Hartung, B

2014-09-01

Homicide-suicide is a rare and serious phenomenon which mainly occurs in intimate relationships and families. In this study ten cases of murder-suicide during the period 2006-2011 in the greater area of Düsseldorf were investigated. Data were obtained from coroner and prosecution files. All perpetrators were male. In accordance with the literature the results of the analysis revealed male sex, higher age, intimate partnership, access to firearms and special personality traits, mainly emotionally unstable, narcissistic traits and aggressiveness as the main risk factors. In all cases, at least three risk factors were identified. Breakdown of the marital relationship and social descent emerged as probable leading motives. Shooting was the most frequent method of killing followed by sharp force. Compared with homicide and suicide, homicide-suicide appears to be a distinct phenomenon. The knowledge and understanding of relevant risk factors could help mental health professionals, police and public authorities to intervene in time.

A new understanding of multiple-pulsed laser-induced retinal injury thresholds.

PubMed

Lund, David J; Sliney, David H

2014-04-01

Laser safety standards committees have struggled for years to formulate adequately a sound method for treating repetitive-pulse laser exposures. Safety standards for lamps and LEDs have ignored this issue because averaged irradiance appeared to treat the issue adequately for large retinal image sizes and skin exposures. Several authors have recently questioned the current approach of three test conditions (i.e., limiting single-pulse exposure, average irradiance, and a single-pulse-reduction factor) as still insufficient to treat pulses of unequal energies or certain pulse groupings. Schulmeister et al. employed thermal modeling to show that a total-on-time pulse (TOTP) rule was conservative. Lund further developed the approach of probability summation proposed by Menendez et al. to explain pulse-additivity, whereby additivity is the result of an increasing probability of detecting injury with multiple pulse exposures. This latter argument relates the increase in detection probability to the slope of the probit curve for the threshold studies. Since the uncertainty in the threshold for producing an ophthalmoscopically detectable minimal visible lesion (MVL) is large for retinal exposure to a collimated laser beam, safety committees traditionally applied large risk reduction factors ("safety factors") of one order of magnitude when deriving intrabeam, "point-source" exposure limits. This reduction factor took into account the probability of visually detecting the low-contrast lesion among other factors. The reduction factor is smaller for large spot sizes where these difficulties are quite reduced. Thus the N⁻⁰·²⁵ reduction factor may result from the difficulties in detecting the lesion. Recent studies on repetitive pulse exposures in both animal and in vitro (retinal explant) models support this interpretation of the available data.

[Vitamin B12 deficiency: what's new?].

PubMed

Braillard, O; Casini, A; Samii, K; Rufenacht, P; Junod, Perron N

2012-09-26

Vitamin B12 screening is only recommended among symptomatic patients or in those with risk factors. The main cause of vitamin B12 deficiency is the food cobalamin malabsorption syndrom. Holotranscobalamin is a more reliable marker than cyanocobalamin to confirm vitamin B12 deficiency, but it has not been validated yet in complex situations. An autoimmune gastritis must be excluded in the absence of risk factors but in the presence of a probable deficiency. Oral substitution treatment is effective but requires excellent therapeutic compliance and close follow-up to monitor the response to treatment. It has not yet been studied among patients suffering from severe symptoms, inflammatory bowel disease and ileal resection.

Associations between prior management of cattle and risk of bovine respiratory disease in feedlot cattle.

PubMed

Hay, K E; Morton, J M; Schibrowski, M L; Clements, A C A; Mahony, T J; Barnes, T S

2016-05-01

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the major cause of clinical disease and death in feedlot populations worldwide. A longitudinal study was conducted to assess associations between risk factors related to on-farm management prior to transport to the feedlot and risk of BRD in a population of feedlot beef cattle sourced from throughout the cattle producing regions of Australia. Exposure variables were derived from questionnaire data provided by farmers supplying cattle (N=10,721) that were a subset of the population included in a nationwide prospective study investigating numerous putative risk factors for BRD. Causal diagrams were used to inform model building to allow estimation of effects of interest. Multilevel mixed effects logistic regression models were fitted within the Bayesian framework. Animals that were yard weaned were at reduced risk (OR: 0.7, 95% credible interval: 0.5-1.0) of BRD at the feedlot compared to animals immediately returned to pasture after weaning. Animals that had previously been fed grain (OR: 0.6, 95% credible interval: 0.3-1.1) were probably at reduced risk of BRD at the feedlot compared to animals not previously fed grain. Animals that received prior vaccinations against Bovine viral diarrhoea virus 1 (OR: 0.8, 95% credible interval: 0.5-1.1) or Mannheimia haemolytica (OR: 0.8, 95% credible interval: 0.6-1.0) were also probably at reduced risk compared to non-vaccinated animals. The results of this study confirm that on-farm management before feedlot entry can alter risk of BRD after beef cattle enter feedlots. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Psychosocial work environment and burnout among emergency medical and nursing staff.

PubMed

Escribà-Agüir, V; Martín-Baena, D; Pérez-Hoyos, S

2006-11-01

The prevalence of burnout syndrome is increasing among doctors and nurses. The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between the psychosocial work environment and burnout syndrome among emergency medical and nursing staff in Spain. A secondary aim was to determine if the effect of this psychosocial work environment on burnout was different for doctors and nurses. A cross-sectional survey was carried out by means of a mail questionnaire among 945 emergency doctors and nursing staff of Spain. The outcome variable was three dimensions of burnout syndrome [emotional exhaustion (EE), personal accomplishment (PA), depersonalisation (DP)]. The explanatory variable was that psychosocial work environment evaluated according to Karasek and Johnson's demand-control model. The adjusted odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated by logistical regression. The probability of high EE was greater among those exposed to high psychological demands, OR 4.66 (2.75-7.90), low job control, OR 1.65 (1.04-2.63), and low supervisors' social support, OR 1.64 (1.01-2.59). Emotional exhaustion dimension was negatively influenced by low control only among doctors. Those exposed to low job control had a higher risk of low PA, OR 2.55 (1.66-3.94). There was no evidence of negative effect of psychosocial risk factors on the DP. Prevalence of EE and PA was higher among doctors and nurses. The presence of risk factors derived from work organisation within the work place (psychosocial risk factors) increases the probability of presenting burnout syndrome and, above all, EE.

Exaggerated blood pressure response during the exercise treadmill test as a risk factor for hypertension.

PubMed

Lima, S G; Albuquerque, M F P M; Oliveira, J R M; Ayres, C F J; Cunha, J E G; Oliveira, D F; Lemos, R R; Souza, M B R; Barbosa e Silva, O

2013-04-01

Exaggerated blood pressure response (EBPR) during the exercise treadmill test (ETT) has been considered to be a risk factor for hypertension. The relationship of polymorphisms of the renin-angiotensin system gene with hypertension has not been established. Our objective was to evaluate whether EBPR during exercise is a clinical marker for hypertension. The study concerned a historical cohort of normotensive individuals. The exposed individuals were those who presented EBPR. At the end of the observation period (41.7 months = 3.5 years), the development of hypertension was analyzed within the two groups. Genetic polymorphisms and blood pressure behavior were assessed as independent variables, together with the classical risk factors for hypertension. The I/D gene polymorphism of the angiotensin-converting enzyme and M235T of angiotensinogen were ruled out as risk factors for hypertension. EBPR during ETT is not an independent influence on the chances of developing hypertension. No differences were observed between the hypertensive and normotensive individuals regarding gender (P = 0.655), skin color (P = 0.636), family history of hypertension (P = 0.225), diabetes mellitus (P = 0.285), or hypertriglyceridemia (P = 0.734). The risk of developing hypertension increased with increasing body mass index (BMI) and advancing age. The risk factors, which independently influenced the development of hypertension, were age and BMI. EBPR did not constitute an independent risk factor for hypertension and is probably a preclinical phase in the spectrum of normotension and hypertension.

Heart rate variability as predictive factor for sudden cardiac death.

PubMed

Sessa, Francesco; Anna, Valenzano; Messina, Giovanni; Cibelli, Giuseppe; Monda, Vincenzo; Marsala, Gabriella; Ruberto, Maria; Biondi, Antonio; Cascio, Orazio; Bertozzi, Giuseppe; Pisanelli, Daniela; Maglietta, Francesca; Messina, Antonietta; Mollica, Maria P; Salerno, Monica

2018-02-23

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) represents about 25% of deaths in clinical cardiology. The identification of risk factors for SCD is the philosopher's stone of cardiology and the identification of non-invasive markers of risk of SCD remains one of the most important goals for the scientific community.The aim of this review is to analyze the state of the art around the heart rate variability (HRV) as a predictor factor for SCD.HRV is probably the most analyzed index in cardiovascular risk stratification technical literature, therefore an important number of models and methods have been developed.Nowadays, low HRV has been shown to be independently predictive of increased mortality in post- myocardial infarction patients, heart failure patients, in contrast with the data of the general population.Contrariwise, the relationship between HRV and SCD has received scarce attention in low-risk cohorts. Furthermore, in general population the attributable risk is modest and the cost/benefit ratio is not always convenient.The HRV evaluation could become an important tool for health status in risks population, even though the use of HRV alone for risk stratification of SCD is limited and further studies are needed.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the Absence of Cirrhosis in US Veterans is Associated with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

PubMed Central

Mittal, Sahil; El-Serag, Hashem B.; Sada, Yvonne H.; Kanwal, Fasiha; Duan, Zhigang; Temple, Sarah; May, Sarah B.; Kramer, Jennifer R.; Richardson, Peter A.; Davila, Jessica A.

2015-01-01

Background & Aims Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can develop in individuals without cirrhosis. We investigated risk factors for development of HCC in the absence of cirrhosis in a US population. Methods We identified a national cohort of 1500 patients with verified HCC during 2005–2010 in the US Veterans Administration (VA), and reviewed their full VA medical records for evidence of cirrhosis and risk factors for HCC. Patients without cirrhosis were assigned to categories of level 1 evidence for no cirrhosis (very high probability) or level 2 evidence for no cirrhosis (high probability), based on findings from histologic analyses, laboratory test results, markers of fibrosis from non-invasive tests, and imaging features. Results A total of 43 (2.9%) of the 1500 patients with HCC had level 1 evidence for no cirrhosis and 151 (10.1%) had level 2 evidence for no cirrhosis; the remaining 1203 patients (80.1%) had confirmed cirrhosis. Compared to patients with HCC in presence of cirrhosis, greater proportions of patients with HCC without evidence of cirrhosis had metabolic syndrome, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), or no identifiable risk factors. Patients with HCC without evidence of cirrhosis were less likely to have abused alcohol or have HCV infection than patients with cirrhosis. Patients with HCC and NAFLD (unadjusted odds ratio, 5.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.4–8.5) or metabolic syndrome (unadjusted odds ratio, 5.0; 95% confidence interval, 3.1–7.8) had more than a 5-fold risk of having HCC in the absence of cirrhosis, compared to patients with HCV-related HCC. Conclusions Approximately 13% of patients with HCC in the VA system do not appear to have cirrhosis. NAFLD and metabolic syndrome are the main risk factors HCC in the absence of cirrhosis. PMID:26196445

Multi-temporal analysis of forest fire risk driven by environmental and socio-economic change in the Republic of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. J.; Lim, C. H.; Kim, G. S.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

Analysis of forest fire risk is important in disaster risk reduction (DRR) since it provides a way to manage forest fires. Climate and socio-economic factors are important in the cause of forest fires, and the role of the socio-economic factors in prevention and preparedness of forest fires is increasing. As most of the forest fires in the Republic of Korea are highly related to human activities, both environmental factors and socio-economic factors were considered into the analysis of forest fire risk. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential geographical distribution and probability of forest fire occurrence spatially and temporally from 1980s to the 2010s in the Republic of Korea by multi-temporal analysis and analyze the relationship between forest fires and the factors. As a result of the risk analysis, there was an overall increasing trend in forest fire risk from the 1980s to the 2000s, and socio-economic factors were highly correlated with the occurrence of forest fires. The study demonstrates that the socio-economic factors considered as human activities can increase the occurrence of forest fires. The result implies that managing human activities are significant to prevent forest fire occurrence. In addition, timely forest fire prevention and control is necessary as drought index such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) also affected forest fires.

The moderating effects of coping and self-esteem on the relationship between defeat, entrapment and suicidality in a sample of prisoners at high risk of suicide.

PubMed

Gooding, P; Tarrier, N; Dunn, G; Shaw, J; Awenat, Y; Ulph, F; Pratt, D

2015-11-01

Research is sparse which examines pathways to suicide, and resilience to suicide, in people who are particularly vulnerable to suicide, for example, prison inmates. The purpose of this study was to examine the ways in which perceptions of self-esteem and coping ability interacted with defeat and entrapment to both amplify suicidal thoughts and feelings, and to act as a buffer against suicidal thoughts and feelings. Participants were 65 male prisoners at high risk of suicide. A cross-sectional questionnaire design was used. Questionnaire measures of depression, defeat, entrapment, self-esteem, coping ability and suicidal probability were administered. For the hopelessness component of the suicide probability measure, high levels of coping ability together with low levels of defeat resulted in the lowest levels of suicidality indicative of a resilience factor. In contrast, low levels of coping skills together with high levels of entrapment were a high risk factor for this hopelessness component of suicide. This pattern of results pertained when controlling for depression levels. This is the first study to examine interactions between defeat, entrapment and appraisals of self-esteem and coping ability. Therapeutic interventions would benefit from boosting perceptions and appraisals of coping ability, in particular, in people who are at high risk for suicide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The moderating effects of coping and self-esteem on the relationship between defeat, entrapment and suicidality in a sample of prisoners at high risk of suicide

PubMed Central

Gooding, P.; Tarrier, N.; Dunn, G.; Shaw, J.; Awenat, Y.; Ulph, F.; Pratt, D.

2015-01-01

Background Research is sparse which examines pathways to suicide, and resilience to suicide, in people who are particularly vulnerable to suicide, for example, prison inmates. The purpose of this study was to examine the ways in which perceptions of self-esteem and coping ability interacted with defeat and entrapment to both amplify suicidal thoughts and feelings, and to act as a buffer against suicidal thoughts and feelings. Methods Participants were 65 male prisoners at high risk of suicide. A cross-sectional questionnaire design was used. Questionnaire measures of depression, defeat, entrapment, self-esteem, coping ability and suicidal probability were administered. Results For the hopelessness component of the suicide probability measure, high levels of coping ability together with low levels of defeat resulted in the lowest levels of suicidality indicative of a resilience factor. In contrast, low levels of coping skills together with high levels of entrapment were a high risk factor for this hopelessness component of suicide. This pattern of results pertained when controlling for depression levels. Conclusions This is the first study to examine interactions between defeat, entrapment and appraisals of self-esteem and coping ability. Therapeutic interventions would benefit from boosting perceptions and appraisals of coping ability, in particular, in people who are at high risk for suicide. PMID:26497469

Model-informed risk assessment for Zika virus outbreaks in the Asia-Pacific regions.

PubMed

Teng, Yue; Bi, Dehua; Xie, Guigang; Jin, Yuan; Huang, Yong; Lin, Baihan; An, Xiaoping; Tong, Yigang; Feng, Dan

2017-05-01

Recently, Zika virus (ZIKV) has been recognized as a significant threat to global public health. The disease was present in large parts of the Americas, the Caribbean, and also the western Pacific area with southern Asia during 2015 and 2016. However, little is known about the factors affecting the transmission of ZIKV. We used Gradient Boosted Regression Tree models to investigate the effects of various potential explanatory variables on the spread of ZIKV, and used current with historical information from a range of sources to assess the risks of future ZIKV outbreaks. Our results indicated that the probability of ZIKV outbreaks increases with vapor pressure, the occurrence of Dengue virus, and population density but decreases as health expenditure, GDP, and numbers of travelers. The predictive results revealed the potential risk countries of ZIKV infection in the Asia-Pacific regions between October 2016 and January 2017. We believe that the high-risk conditions would continue in South Asia and Australia over this period. By integrating information on eco-environmental, social-economical, and ZIKV-related niche factors, this study estimated the probability for locally acquired mosquito-borne ZIKV infections in the Asia-Pacific region and improves the ability to forecast, and possibly even prevent, future outbreaks of ZIKV. Copyright © 2017 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parental Separation, Parental Alcoholism, and Timing of First Sexual Intercourse

PubMed Central

Waldron, Mary; Doran, Kelly A.; Bucholz, Kathleen K.; Duncan, Alexis E.; Lynskey, Michael T.; Madden, Pamela A. F.; Sartor, Carolyn E.; Heath, Andrew C.

2015-01-01

Purpose We examined timing of first voluntary sexual intercourse as a joint function of parental separation during childhood and parental history of alcoholism. Methods Data were drawn from a birth cohort of female like-sex twins (n=569 African Ancestry [AA], n=3415 European or other Ancestry [EA]). Cox proportional hazards regression was conducted predicting age at first sex from dummy variables coding for parental separation and parental alcoholism. Propensity score analysis was also employed comparing intact and separated families, stratified by predicted probability of separation. Results Earlier sex was reported by EA twins from separated and alcoholic families, compared to EA twins from intact nonalcoholic families, with effects most pronounced through age 14. Among AA twins, effects of parental separation and parental alcoholism were largely nonsignificant. Results of propensity score analyses confirmed unique risks from parental separation in EA families, where consistent effects of parental separation were observed across predicted probability of separation. For AA families there was poor matching on risk-factors presumed to predate separation, which limited interpretability of survival-analytic findings. Conclusions In European American families, parental separation during childhood is an important predictor of early-onset sex, beyond parental alcoholism and other correlated risk-factors. To characterize risk for African Americans associated with parental separation, additional research is needed where matching on confounders can be achieved. PMID:25907653

Risk assessment of maize damage by wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) as the first step in implementing IPM and in reducing the environmental impact of soil insecticides.

PubMed

Furlan, L; Contiero, B; Chiarini, F; Colauzzi, M; Sartori, E; Benvegnù, I; Fracasso, F; Giandon, P

2017-01-01

A survey of maize fields was conducted in northeast Italy from 1986 to 2014, resulting in a dataset of 1296 records including information on wireworm damage to maize, plant-attacking species, agronomic characteristics, landscape and climate. Three wireworm species, Agriotes brevis Candeze, A. sordidus Illiger and A. ustulatus Schäller, were identified as the dominant pest species in maize fields. Over the 29-year period surveyed, no yield reduction was observed when wireworm plant damage was below 15 % of the stand. A preliminary univariate analysis of risk assessment was applied to identify the main factors influencing the occurrence of damage. A multifactorial model was then applied by using the significant factors identified. This model allowed the research to highlight the strongest factors and to analyse how the main factors together influenced damage risk. The strongest factors were: A. brevis as prevalent damaging species, soil organic matter content >5 %, rotation including meadows and/or double crops, A. sordidus as prevalent damaging species, and surrounding landscape mainly meadows, uncultivated grass and double crops. The multifactorial model also showed how the simultaneous occurrence of two or more of the aforementioned risk factors can conspicuously increase the risk of wireworm damage to maize crops, while the probability of damage to a field with no-risk factors is always low (<1 %). These results make it possible to draw risk maps to identify low-risk and high-risk areas, a first step in implementing bespoke IPM procedures in an attempt to reduce the impact of soil insecticides significantly.

Self-Reported Arrests Among Indigenous Adolescents: a Longitudinal Analysis of Community, Family, and Individual Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Gentzler, Kari C.

2018-01-01

Purpose North American indigenous (American Indian/Canadian First Nations) adolescents are overrepresented in the juvenile justice systems in the USA and Canada. One explanation advanced for disproportionate numbers of racial and ethnic minorities in the justice systems is the unequal distribution of risk factors across groups. The purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence of and risk factors for first arrest within a population sample of indigenous adolescents. Methods The data come from an 8-year longitudinal panel study of indigenous youth (n = 641) from the northern Midwest and Canada, spanning ages 10 to 19 years. We used a discrete-time survival model to estimate the overall hazard of first arrest and change in the arrest hazard over time and included both time-invariant and time varying risk factors. Results The risk of arrest increased over time, although the largest increase occurred between waves 3 and 4, when the adolescents averaged 13.1 and 14.3 years, respectively. The youth had a 55 % probability of being arrested at least once by the end of the study. Of the time-invariant risk factors, exposure to violence, parent arrest, age, and income were associated with overall risk of first arrest. Three time-varying risk factors (alcohol use, marijuana use, and peer delinquency) were associated with changes in the risk of first arrest. Conclusions Being arrested carries significant repercussions for young people, including involvement in the juvenile justice system as well as consequences into adulthood. Communities must go beyond programs that target problem behaviors because community, family, and peer factors are also important. PMID:29503797

Frailty Models for Familial Risk with Application to Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Gorfine, Malka; Hsu, Li; Parmigiani, Giovanni

2013-12-01

In evaluating familial risk for disease we have two main statistical tasks: assessing the probability of carrying an inherited genetic mutation conferring higher risk; and predicting the absolute risk of developing diseases over time, for those individuals whose mutation status is known. Despite substantial progress, much remains unknown about the role of genetic and environmental risk factors, about the sources of variation in risk among families that carry high-risk mutations, and about the sources of familial aggregation beyond major Mendelian effects. These sources of heterogeneity contribute substantial variation in risk across families. In this paper we present simple and efficient methods for accounting for this variation in familial risk assessment. Our methods are based on frailty models. We implemented them in the context of generalizing Mendelian models of cancer risk, and compared our approaches to others that do not consider heterogeneity across families. Our extensive simulation study demonstrates that when predicting the risk of developing a disease over time conditional on carrier status, accounting for heterogeneity results in a substantial improvement in the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic. On the other hand, the improvement for carriership probability estimation is more limited. We illustrate the utility of the proposed approach through the analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers in the Washington Ashkenazi Kin-Cohort Study of Breast Cancer.

Towards a dietary prevention of hereditary breast cancer.

PubMed

Kotsopoulos, Joanne; Narod, Steven A

2005-03-01

Inheritance of a deleterious mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2 confers a high lifetime risk of developing breast cancer. Variation in penetrance between individuals suggests that factors other than the gene mutation itself may influence the risk of cancer in susceptible women. Several risk factors have been identified which implicate estrogen-induced growth stimulation as a probable contributor to breast cancer pre-disposition. The protein products of both of these genes appear to help preserve genomic integrity via their participation in the DNA damage response and repair pathways. To date, the evidence for a cancer-protective role of dietary nutrients, for the most part those with antioxidant properties, has been based on women without any known genetic pre-disposition and it is important to identify and evaluate dietary factors which may modify the risk of cancer in BRCA carriers. Here we propose that diet modification may modulate the risk of hereditary breast cancer by decreasing DNA damage (possibly linked to estrogen exposure) or by enhancing DNA repair. The prevention of hereditary breast cancer through diet is an attractive complement to current management strategies and deserves exploration.

Symptoms of substance dependence and risky sexual behavior in a probability sample of HIV-negative men who have sex with men in Chicago.

PubMed

Mackesy-Amiti, Mary Ellen; Fendrich, Michael; Johnson, Timothy P

2010-07-01

This study examines the relationship between self-reported symptoms of substance dependence and risky sexual behavior among 187 HIV-negative men who have sex with men. In a supplement to a Chicago household survey, using random probability sampling, men who reported consensual sex with other men or who identified as gay or bisexual were selected for interviews. Participants reported on sexual behavior, substance use, and symptoms of substance dependence related to past year use of alcohol, marijuana, cocaine, and sedatives, tranquilizers or pain relievers. Risky sexual behavior was defined as unprotected insertive or receptive anal intercourse plus having multiple partners, casual partners, or a partner who was HIV positive or of unknown serostatus. Risky sexual behavior in the past six months was significantly and positively associated with alcohol dependence symptoms, cocaine dependence symptoms (receptive only), and prescription drug dependence symptoms (insertive only). Confirmatory factor analyses revealed that dependence symptoms loaded on separate factors by substance, which in turn loaded on an overarching dependence symptoms factor. In structural equation models, individual substance factors were not significantly associated with sexual risk behavior, however the higher order dependence symptoms factor was significantly and positively associated with both receptive and insertive risk behavior. MSM with symptoms of multiple substance use dependencies are more likely to be engaged in sexual behavior that places them at risk for acquiring HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Alcohol and drug abuse treatment providers should be aware of the need for HIV testing and counseling in this population. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pre and post-natal risk and determination of factors for child obesity.

PubMed

Trandafir, L M; Temneanu, O R

2016-01-01

Obesity is considered a condition presenting a complex, multi-factorial etiology that implies genetic and non-genetic factors. The way the available information should be efficiently and strategically used in the obesity and overweight prohylaxisprogrammes for children all over the world is still unclear for most of the risk factors. Mothers' pre-conception weight and weight gain during pregnancy are two of the most important prenatal determinants of childhood obesity. Maternal obesity and gestational weight gain are associated with foetal macrosomia and childhood obesity, and this effect extends into adulthood. Obesity and the metabolic syndrome in children originate in intrauterine life. The current obesity epidemic is probably the result of our evolutive inheritance associated with the consumption of highly processed food with an increased calorific value. The determination of risk factors involved in child obesity are: genetic predisposition, diet, sedentary behaviors, socioeconomic position, ethnic origin, microbiota, iatrogenic, endocrine diseases, congenital and acquired hypothalamic defects, usage of medications affecting appetite. However, the vast majority of patients will not have any of these identifiable conditions. Regardless of the aetiology, all the patients should be considered for modifiable lifestyle risk factors and screened for the complications of obesity.

Sociodemographic and environmental analysis for the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs of Teresina, Piauí, Brazil.

PubMed

Silva, Elís Rosélia Dutra de Freitas Siqueira; Castro, Vanessa; Mineiro, Ana Lys Bezerra Barradas; Prianti, Maria das Graças; Martins, Gustavo Henrique Chaves; Santana, Misael das Virgens; Brito, Lucas Moreira; Silva, Silvana Maria Medeiros de Sousa

2018-05-01

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonosis whose transmission is interlinked by multiple factors in the man-animal-ecosystem interface. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors for the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs in the capital Teresina (PI), and to determine their spatial distribution. Five hundred fifty-eight dog blood samples were submitted to the Microscopic Serum Agglutination (MSA) test. We applied semi-structured questionnaires to dog owners and obtained the area of residence for projection in geographical maps. Serum prevalence was 13.8%, in which the most common serovar was icterohaemorrhagiae, with 49.2%. Dogs with street access, failure to collect food bowl and low income of owners were risk factors. There was a higher number of seropositive dogs in the rainy season, with 87.1%, which is a probable risk factor for the occurrence of cases. The distribution of seropositive dogs was widely spread in the city, with predominance of cases in anthropized areas. These risk factors favor the occurrence of anti-Leptospira antibodies in dogs that are agent maintenance sources in the city and reinforce the need for epidemiological and environmental surveillance to prevent leptospirosis.

Rethinking 'risk' and self-management for chronic illness.

PubMed

Morden, Andrew; Jinks, Clare; Ong, Bie Nio

2012-02-01

Self-management for chronic illness is a current high profile UK healthcare policy. Policy and clinical recommendations relating to chronic illnesses are framed within a language of lifestyle risk management. This article argues the enactment of risk within current UK self-management policy is intimately related to neo-liberal ideology and is geared towards population governance. The approach that dominates policy perspectives to 'risk' management is critiqued for positioning people as rational subjects who calculate risk probabilities and act upon them. Furthermore this perspective fails to understand the lay person's construction and enactment of risk, their agenda and contextual needs when living with chronic illness. Of everyday relevance to lay people is the management of risk and uncertainty relating to social roles and obligations, the emotions involved when encountering the risk and uncertainty in chronic illness, and the challenges posed by social structural factors and social environments that have to be managed. Thus, clinical enactments of self-management policy would benefit from taking a more holistic view to patient need and seek to avoid solely communicating lifestyle risk factors to be self-managed.

Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications.

PubMed

Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi

2015-10-01

In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Trajectories and Risk Factors for Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms following Pediatric Concussion.

PubMed

Truss, Katherine; Godfrey, Celia; Takagi, Michael; Babl, Franz E; Bressan, Silvia; Hearps, Stephen; Clarke, Cathriona; Dunne, Kevin; Anderson, Vicki

2017-07-15

A substantial minority of children experience post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) following injury. Research indicates variation in the trajectory of PTSS following pediatric injury, but investigation of PTSS following concussion has assumed homogeneity. This study aimed to identify differential trajectories of PTSS following pediatric concussion and to investigate risk factors, including acute post-concussive symptoms (PCS), associated with these trajectories. A total of 120 children ages 8-18 years reported PTSS for 3 months following concussion diagnosis using the Child PTSD Symptom Scale, with a score of 16 or above indicating probable post-traumatic stress disorder diagnosis. Age, gender, injury mechanism, loss of consciousness, previous concussions, prior hospitalization, prior diagnosis of depression or anxiety, and acute PCS were assessed as risk factors. Data were analyzed using group-based trajectory modeling. Results revealed 16% of children had clinically significant PTSS 2 weeks post-concussion, declining to 10% at 1 month and 6% at 3 months post-injury. Group-based trajectory modeling identified three trajectories of PTSS post-concussion: "resilient" (70%); "recovering" (25%), in which children experienced elevated acute symptoms that declined over time; and "chronic symptomatology" (5%). Due to small size, the chronic group should be interpreted with caution. Higher acute PCS and prior diagnosis of depression or anxiety both significantly increased predicted probability of recovering trajectory group membership. These findings establish that most children are resilient to PTSS following concussion, but that PTSS do occur acutely in a substantial minority of children. The study indicates mental health factors, particularly PTSS, depression, and anxiety, should be considered integral to models of concussion management and treatment.

Risk Factors for Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in Cattle in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Dejene, Sintayehu W; Heitkönig, Ignas M A; Prins, Herbert H T; Lemma, Fitsum A; Mekonnen, Daniel A; Alemu, Zelalem E; Kelkay, Tessema Z; de Boer, Willem F

2016-01-01

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) infection is generally correlated with individual cattle's age, sex, body condition, and with husbandry practices such as herd composition, cattle movement, herd size, production system and proximity to wildlife-including bTB maintenance hosts. We tested the correlation between those factors and the prevalence of bTB, which is endemic in Ethiopia's highland cattle, in the Afar Region and Awash National Park between November 2013 and April 2015. A total of 2550 cattle from 102 herds were tested for bTB presence using the comparative intradermal tuberculin test (CITT). Data on herd structure, herd movement, management and production system, livestock transfer, and contact with wildlife were collected using semi-structured interviews with cattle herders and herd owners. The individual overall prevalence of cattle bTB was 5.5%, with a herd prevalence of 46%. Generalized Linear Mixed Models with a random herd-effect were used to analyse risk factors of cattle reactors within each herd. The older the age of the cattle and the lower the body condition the higher the chance of a positive bTB test result, but sex, lactation status and reproductive status were not correlated with bTB status. At herd level, General Linear Models showed that pastoral production systems with transhumant herds had a higher bTB prevalence than sedentary herds. A model averaging analysis identified herd size, contact with wildlife, and the interaction of herd size and contact with wildlife as significant risk factors for bTB prevalence in cattle. A subsequent Structural Equation Model showed that the probability of contact with wildlife was influenced by herd size, through herd movement. Larger herds moved more and grazed in larger areas, hence the probability of grazing in an area with wildlife and contact with either infected cattle or infected wildlife hosts increased, enhancing the chances for bTB infection. Therefore, future bTB control strategies in cattle in pastoral areas should consider herd size and movement as important risk factors.

Risk of thromboembolic complications in adult congenital heart disease: A literature review.

PubMed

Karsenty, Clement; Zhao, Alexandre; Marijon, Eloi; Ladouceur, Magalie

2018-05-30

Adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) is a constantly expanding population with challenging issues. Initial medical and surgical treatments are seldom curative, and the majority of patients still experience late sequelae and complications, especially thromboembolic events. These common and potentially life-threating adverse events are probably dramatically underdiagnosed. Better identification and understanding of thromboembolic risk factors are essential to prevent long-term related morbidities. In addition to specific situations associated with a high risk of thromboembolic events (Fontan circulation, cyanotic congenital heart disease), atrial arrhythmia has been recognized as an important risk factor for thromboembolic events in ACHD. Unlike in patients without ACHD, thromboembolic risk stratification scores, such as the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score, may not be applicable in ACHD. Overall, after a review of the scientific data published so far, it is clear that the complexity of the underlying congenital heart disease represents a major risk factor for thromboembolic events. As a consequence, prophylactic anticoagulation is indicated in patients with complex congenital heart disease and atrial arrhythmia, regardless of the other risk factors, as opposed to simple heart defects. The landscape of ACHD is an ongoing evolving process, and specific thromboembolic risk scores are needed, especially in the setting of simple heart defects; these should be coupled with specific trials or long-term follow-up of multicentre cohorts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Cerebral venous thrombosis associated with thyrotoxicosis, the use of desmopressin and elevated factor VIII/von Willebrand factor.

PubMed

Waheed, Waqar; Aljerdi, Salman; Decker, Barbara; Cushman, Mary; Hamill, Robert W

2016-08-08

Cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) is an uncommon disorder associated with diverse processes. We report a patient who, while receiving desmopressin and contraceptive pills (OCP), developed straight sinus thrombosis. Clinical assessment and laboratory investigations revealed untreated hyperthyroidism and a hypercoagulable state, characterised by high levels of von Willebrand factor, factor VIII coagulant activity and IgM cardiolipin antibody. The clinical picture improved with anticoagulation, treatment of hyperthyroidism and discontinuation of OCP and desmopressin. To the best of our knowledge, the association between the use of oral desmopressin and CVT has not been described. The multiple risk factors present in our case were probably additive in increasing the risk of CVT. Although this case represents a rare occurrence, practitioners should be alerted to the possible associations of desmopressin, oral contraceptives and Graves' disease with venous thrombosis. 2016 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.

Prevalence, potential risk factors for development and symptoms related to the presence of uterine niches following Cesarean section: systematic review.

PubMed

Bij de Vaate, A J M; van der Voet, L F; Naji, O; Witmer, M; Veersema, S; Brölmann, H A M; Bourne, T; Huirne, J A F

2014-04-01

To review systematically the medical literature reporting on the prevalence of a niche at the site of a Cesarean section (CS) scar using various diagnostic methods, on potential risk factors for the development of a niche and on niche-related gynecological symptoms in non-pregnant women. The PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. All types of clinical study reporting on the prevalence, risk factors and/or symptoms of a niche in non-pregnant women with a history of CS were included, apart from case reports and case series. Twenty-one papers were selected for inclusion in the review. A wide range in the prevalence of a niche was found. Using contrast-enhanced sonohysterography in a random population of women with a history of CS, the prevalence was found to vary between 56% and 84%. Nine studies reported on risk factors and each study evaluated different factors, which made it difficult to compare studies. Risk factors could be classified into four categories: those related to closure technique, to development of the lower uterine segment or location of the incision or to wound healing, and miscellaneous factors. Probable risk factors are single-layer myometrium closure, multiple CSs and uterine retroflexion. Six out of eight studies that evaluated niche-related symptoms described an association between the presence of a niche and postmenstrual spotting. The reported prevalence of a niche in non-pregnant women varies depending on the method of detection, the criteria used to define a niche and the study population. Potential risk factors can be categorized into four main categories, which may be useful for future research and meta-analyses. The predominant symptom associated with a niche is postmenstrual spotting. Copyright © 2013 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reduction of cardiovascular risk after preeclampsia: the role of framing and perceived probability in modifying behavior.

PubMed

Bokslag, Anouk; Hermes, Wietske; de Groot, Christianne J M; Teunissen, Pim W

2016-11-01

To reduce cardiovascular risk after preeclampsia, we investigated the effect of framing, the perceived probability and its interaction, on the willingness to modify behavior. Participants scored their willingness to modify behavior on two cases with different probabilities of developing cardiovascular disease. Both cases were either presented as "chance of health" or "risk of disease". 165 questionnaires were analyzed. ANOVA revealed a significant effect of probability, non-significant effect of framing and a non-significant interaction between probability and framing. Perceived probability influences willingness to modify behavior to reduce cardiovascular risk after preeclampsia; framing and the interaction was not of influence.

Risk ranking of LANL nuclear material storage containers for repackaging prioritization.

PubMed

Smith, Paul H; Jordan, Hans; Hoffman, Jenifer A; Eller, P Gary; Balkey, Simon

2007-05-01

Safe handling and storage of nuclear material at U.S. Department of Energy facilities relies on the use of robust containers to prevent container breaches and subsequent worker contamination and uptake. The U.S. Department of Energy has no uniform requirements for packaging and storage of nuclear materials other than those declared excess and packaged to DOE-STD-3013-2000. This report describes a methodology for prioritizing a large inventory of nuclear material containers so that the highest risk containers are repackaged first. The methodology utilizes expert judgment to assign respirable fractions and reactivity factors to accountable levels of nuclear material at Los Alamos National Laboratory. A relative risk factor is assigned to each nuclear material container based on a calculated dose to a worker due to a failed container barrier and a calculated probability of container failure based on material reactivity and container age. This risk-based methodology is being applied at LANL to repackage the highest risk materials first and, thus, accelerate the reduction of risk to nuclear material handlers.

Breast Cancer Risk Prediction and Mammography Biopsy Decisions

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Katrina; Handorf, Elizabeth A.; Chen, Jinbo; Demeter, Mirar N. Bristol

2012-01-01

Background Controversy continues about screening mammography, in part because of the risk of false-negative and false-positive mammograms. Pre-test breast cancer risk factors may improve the positive and negative predictive value of screening. Purpose To create a model that estimates the potential impact of pre-test risk prediction using clinical and genomic information on the reclassification of women with abnormal mammograms (BI-RADS3 and BI-RADS4 [Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System]) above and below the threshold for breast biopsy. Methods The current study modeled 1-year breast cancer risk in women with abnormal screening mammograms using existing data on breast cancer risk factors, 12 validated breast cancer single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and probability of cancer given the BI-RADS category. Examination was made of reclassification of women above and below biopsy thresholds of 1%, 2%, and 3% risk. The Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium data were collected from 1996 to 2002. Data analysis was conducted in 2010 and 2011. Results Using a biopsy risk threshold of 2% and the standard risk factor model, 5% of women with a BI-RADS3 mammogram had a risk above the threshold, and 3% of women with BIRADS4A mammograms had a risk below the threshold. The addition of 12 SNPs in the model resulted in 8% of women with a BI-RADS3 mammogram above the threshold for biopsy and 7% of women with BI-RADS4A mammograms below the threshold. Conclusions The incorporation of pre-test breast cancer risk factors could change biopsy decisions for a small proportion of women with abnormal mammograms. The greatest impact comes from standard breast cancer risk factors. PMID:23253645

[Clinical features of suicide occurring in schizophrenia (I). Risk-factors identification].

PubMed

Besnier, N; Gavaudan, G; Navez, A; Adida, M; Jollant, F; Courtet, P; Lançon, C

2009-04-01

Suicide is the leading cause of premature death in schizophrenia. Approximately 10 to 13% of deaths in schizophrenia are explained by suicide, despite widespread availability of generally effective antipsychotic treatments and suicide attempts have been reported among 20 to 50% of patients. This relatively low ratio of attempts/suicide is consistent with greater lethality of means - more violent - and intents - less ambivalence - in this population. Many studies have focused on risk factors and clinical characteristics for completed and/or attempted suicide. Commonly, sociodemographic risk factors for suicide are male sex, younger age and, among women, being unmarried, divorced or widowed. Previous suicidal behaviour is a strong risk factor for suicide and contrary to the common view, schizophrenic patients often communicate their suicidal intents shortly before death. Moreover, family history of suicide is associated with a heightened risk of suicide and is independent of the diagnosis, according to the growing literature that shows that vulnerability to suicidal behaviour is independent of psychiatric diagnosis. Suicide can occur throughout the entire course of schizophrenia. This is particularly true in those high-risk periods: early phase of the disease, active illness phase, period of relapse or during a depressive episode. The role of insight and positive symptoms remains unclear and probably needs further studies. Although not specifically for people with schizophrenia, hopelessness is a major risk factor and tragic loss is often presented as a trigger for suicide. It has been suggested that treatment side-effects, such as akathisia are associated with suicidal behaviour. A better knowledge of risk and protective factors is necessary to prevent suicide and suicidality.

Suicide and assisted dying in dementia: what we know and what we need to know. A narrative literature review.

PubMed

Diehl-Schmid, J; Jox, R; Gauthier, S; Belleville, S; Racine, E; Schüle, C; Turecki, G; Richard-Devantoy, S

2017-08-01

Evidence-based data on prevalence and risk factors of suicidal intentions and behavior in dementia are as scarce as the data on assisted dying. The present literature review aimed on summarizing the current knowledge and provides a critical discussion of the results. A systematic narrative literature review was performed using Medline, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, PSYNDEX, PSYCINFO, Sowiport, and Social Sciences Citation Index literature. Dementia as a whole does not appear to be a risk factor for suicide completion. Nonetheless some subgroups of patients with dementia apparently have an increased risk for suicidal behavior, such as patients with psychiatric comorbidities (particularly depression) and of younger age. Furthermore, a recent diagnosis of dementia, semantic dementia, and previous suicide attempts most probably elevate the risk for suicidal intentions and behavior. The impact of other potential risk factors, such as patient's cognitive impairment profile, behavioral disturbances, social isolation, or a biomarker based presymptomatic diagnosis has not yet been investigated. Assisted dying in dementia is rare but numbers seem to increase in regions where it is legally permitted. Most studies that had investigated the prevalence and risk factors for suicide in dementia had significant methodological limitations. Large prospective studies need to be conducted in order to evaluate risk factors for suicide and assisted suicide in patients with dementia and persons with very early or presymptomatic diagnoses of dementia. In clinical practice, known risk factors for suicide should be assessed in a standardized way so that appropriate action can be taken when necessary.

Morbidly Adherent Placenta: Interprofessional Management Strategies for the Intrapartum Period.

PubMed

Baird, Suzanne McMurtry; Troiano, Nan H; Kennedy, Margaret Betsy Babb

"Morbidly adherent placenta" is a term that describes the continuum of placenta accreta, increta, and percreta. The incidence of this type of abnormal placentation has increased significantly over recent decades. The reason is probably multifactorial but, partly, because of factors such as the increasing number of cesarean births. Women at greatest risk are those who have myometrial damage caused by a previous cesarean birth, with either anterior or posterior placenta previa overlying the uterine scar. This condition poses significant risks of morbidity and/or mortality to the pregnant woman and her fetus. A multidisciplinary approach to care throughout pregnancy is essential. This article describes the classification of morbidly adherent placenta, risk factors, methods of diagnosis, potential maternal and fetal complications, and intrapartum clinical management strategies to optimize outcomes.

The Certification Framework: Risk Assessment for Safety and Effectiveness of Geologic Carbon Sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oldenburg, C. M.; Nicot, J.; Bryant, S. L.

2008-12-01

Motivated by the dual objectives of (1) encouraging geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) as one of several strategies urgently needed to reduce CO2 emissions, and (2) protecting the environment from unintended CO2 injection-related impacts, we have developed a simple and transparent framework for certifying GCS safety and effectiveness at individual sites. The approach we developed, called the Certification Framework (CF), is proposed as a standard way for project proponents, regulators, and the public to analyze and understand risks and uncertainties of GCS. In the CF, we relate effective trapping to CO2 leakage risk, where we use the standard definition of risk involving the two factors (1) probability of a particular leakage scenario, and (2) impact of that leakage scenario. In short, if the CO2 leakage risk as calculated by the CF is below threshold values for the life of the project, then effective trapping is predicted and the site can be certified. The concept of effective trapping is more general than traditional "no migration" approaches to underground injection regulation. We achieve simplicity in the CF by using (1) wells and faults as the potential leakage pathways, (2) five compartments to represent where impacts can occur (underground sources of drinking water, hydrocarbon and mineral resources, near-surface environment, health and safety, and emission credits and atmosphere), (3) modeled CO2 fluxes and concentrations as proxies for impact to compartments, (4) broad ranges of storage formation properties to generate a catalog of simulated CO2 plumes, and (5) probabilities of intersection of the CO2 plume with the conduits and compartments. In a case study application of the CF for a saline formation GCS site in the Texas Gulf Coast, analysis with the CF suggested the overall leakage risk to be very small, with the largest contribution coming from risk to the near-surface environment due to potential leakage up abandoned wells, depending on the effective permeability assumed for the wells. This result shows that risk could be drastically reduced by locating and monitoring abandoned wells, along with well or leakage mitigation if necessary. By this means, effective trapping can be predicted with greater certainty because both factors of risk (probability of well leakage, and impact of well leakage) can be reduced significantly through surface monitoring and mitigation, if needed.

Official Positions for FRAX® clinical regarding falls and frailty: can falls and frailty be used in FRAX®? From Joint Official Positions Development Conference of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation on FRAX®.

PubMed

Masud, Tahir; Binkley, Neil; Boonen, Steven; Hannan, Marian T

2011-01-01

Risk factors for fracture can be purely skeletal, e.g., bone mass, microarchitecture or geometry, or a combination of bone and falls risk related factors such as age and functional status. The remit of this Task Force was to review the evidence and consider if falls should be incorporated into the FRAX® model or, alternatively, to provide guidance to assist clinicians in clinical decision-making for patients with a falls history. It is clear that falls are a risk factor for fracture. Fracture probability may be underestimated by FRAX® in individuals with a history of frequent falls. The substantial evidence that various interventions are effective in reducing falls risk was reviewed. Targeting falls risk reduction strategies towards frail older people at high risk for indoor falls is appropriate. This Task Force believes that further fracture reduction requires measures to reduce falls risk in addition to bone directed therapy. Clinicians should recognize that patients with frequent falls are at higher fracture risk than currently estimated by FRAX® and include this in decision-making. However, quantitative adjustment of the FRAX® estimated risk based on falls history is not currently possible. In the long term, incorporation of falls as a risk factor in the FRAX® model would be ideal. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychiatric Disorders and Substance Dependence among Unmarried Low-Income Mothers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosen, Daniel; Spencer, Michael S.; Tolman, Richard M.; Williams, David R.; Jackson, James S.

2003-01-01

Examined the prevalence of mental health disorders and the sociodemographic factors associated with having a mental health disorder in a probability sample of 185 African American and white single mothers. Analyses revealed that race and being on welfare were associated with increased risk of having a mental health disorder, highlighting the need…

42 CFR 81.2 - Provisions of EEOICPA concerning this part.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... at least as likely as not (a 50% or greater probability) that the cancer of the covered employee was... also requires HHS consider the type of cancer, past health-related activities, the risk of developing a radiation-related cancer from workplace exposure, and other relevant factors. Finally, it is important to...

42 CFR 81.2 - Provisions of EEOICPA concerning this part.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... at least as likely as not (a 50% or greater probability) that the cancer of the covered employee was... also requires HHS consider the type of cancer, past health-related activities, the risk of developing a radiation-related cancer from workplace exposure, and other relevant factors. Finally, it is important to...

42 CFR 81.2 - Provisions of EEOICPA concerning this part.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... at least as likely as not (a 50% or greater probability) that the cancer of the covered employee was... also requires HHS consider the type of cancer, past health-related activities, the risk of developing a radiation-related cancer from workplace exposure, and other relevant factors. Finally, it is important to...

42 CFR 81.2 - Provisions of EEOICPA concerning this part.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... at least as likely as not (a 50% or greater probability) that the cancer of the covered employee was... also requires HHS consider the type of cancer, past health-related activities, the risk of developing a radiation-related cancer from workplace exposure, and other relevant factors. Finally, it is important to...

42 CFR 81.2 - Provisions of EEOICPA concerning this part.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... at least as likely as not (a 50% or greater probability) that the cancer of the covered employee was... also requires HHS consider the type of cancer, past health-related activities, the risk of developing a radiation-related cancer from workplace exposure, and other relevant factors. Finally, it is important to...

Effects of implementing the act of prohibition on sex trafficking on female sex workers' sexually transmitted infections.

PubMed

Jung, Minsoo

2017-01-01

This study investigated the effect of implementing the act of prohibition on sex trafficking (PST) on sexually transmitted disease (STD) infections among South Korean female sex workers (FSWs) working at prostitution blocks. Research data were collected twice through the Korean government-sanctioned survey for female sex workers (1st wave = 1,083; 2nd wave = 926). We examined the associations among health behavior, working conditions, and the effect of PST act via hierarchical logistic regression analyses using propensity score matching. After adjusted covariates, the risk probability was 0.288 times lower among FSWs who had remained in prostitute blocks after the PST act enforcement compared to FSWs who had worked before the PST. Similarly, the risk probability for a gonorrhea infection was 0.219 times lower among FSWs who had remained in prostitute blocks after the PST act compared to FSWs who had worked before the PST. Therefore, this study showed that, besides already known factors, the implementation and establishment of the PST Act was a strong factor that suppressed STD infections among FSWs.

Effects of implementing the act of prohibition on sex trafficking on female sex workers’ sexually transmitted infections

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This study investigated the effect of implementing the act of prohibition on sex trafficking (PST) on sexually transmitted disease (STD) infections among South Korean female sex workers (FSWs) working at prostitution blocks. Research data were collected twice through the Korean government-sanctioned survey for female sex workers (1st wave = 1,083; 2nd wave = 926). We examined the associations among health behavior, working conditions, and the effect of PST act via hierarchical logistic regression analyses using propensity score matching. After adjusted covariates, the risk probability was 0.288 times lower among FSWs who had remained in prostitute blocks after the PST act enforcement compared to FSWs who had worked before the PST. Similarly, the risk probability for a gonorrhea infection was 0.219 times lower among FSWs who had remained in prostitute blocks after the PST act compared to FSWs who had worked before the PST. Therefore, this study showed that, besides already known factors, the implementation and establishment of the PST Act was a strong factor that suppressed STD infections among FSWs. PMID:28793341

Dyslipidemia in chronic kidney disease: are statins still indicated in reduction cardiovascular risk in patients on dialysis treatment?

PubMed

Scarpioni, Roberto; Ricardi, Marco; Melfa, Luigi; Cristinelli, Luciano

2010-12-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an increasingly health disease all around the world with a high burden of mortality and cardiovascular (CV) morbidity rate. Even when renal replacement therapy is reached, more than half patients die, mainly for CV causes due either to uremia-related cardiovascular risk factors (such as anemia, hyperhomocysteinemia, mineral bone disease-CKD with hyperparathyroidism, oxidative stress, hypoalbuminemia, chronic inflammation, prothrombotic factors) or to traditional ones (age, male gender, diabetes, obesity, hypertension, smoking, insulin levels, family history, dyslipidemia). Among the latter causes dyslipidemia represents one of the major, potentially correctable risk factor. Statins have demonstrated to effectively and safely reduce cholesterol levels in CKD patients. Here we will examine the effects of statins on CV risk factors in CKD patients and particularly in patients on dialysis treatment, in the light of the unfavorable results of the large trials 4D and AURORA, recently published, underlining the role of malnutrition/inflammation as confounding factor. Probably it will be that only with a real prevention, starting statins even in the early stages of CKD, as indicated by post hoc analysis of large trials, that we will reach results in reducing the mortality rate in CKD patients. In the meanwhile, all the other remediable CV risk factors have to be at the same time corrected. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Biophysics of NASA radiation quality factors.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A

2015-09-01

NASA has implemented new radiation quality factors (QFs) for projecting cancer risks from space radiation exposures to astronauts. The NASA QFs are based on particle track structure concepts with parameters derived from available radiobiology data, and NASA introduces distinct QFs for solid cancer and leukaemia risk estimates. The NASA model was reviewed by the US National Research Council and approved for use by NASA for risk assessment for International Space Station missions and trade studies of future exploration missions to Mars and other destinations. A key feature of the NASA QFs is to represent the uncertainty in the QF assessments and evaluate the importance of the QF uncertainty to overall uncertainties in cancer risk projections. In this article, the biophysical basis for the probability distribution functions representing QF uncertainties was reviewed, and approaches needed to reduce uncertainties were discussed. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

High reticulocyte count is an independent risk factor for cerebrovascular disease in children with sickle cell anemia.

PubMed

Silva, Célia Maria; Giovani, Poliana; Viana, Marcos Borato

2011-01-01

Transcranial Doppler ultrasonography (TCD) is an important way of detecting risk of ischemic stroke in children with sickle cell anemia. A random sample of 262 FS-hemoglobin children from a newborn screening inception cohort in Brazil (1998-2005) was followed up to May 2009. Pulsed TCD followed STOP protocol. Children with mean blood flow velocity < 170 cm/sec in cerebral arteries were classified as low risk; between 170 and 184, low conditional risk; between 185 and 199, high conditional risk; and ≥ 200, high risk. Median age, 6.2 years (2-11.2 years); 147 female; 13 children (5%) had ischemic stroke prior to TCD; 186/249 (74.7%) were classified as low risk; 19 (7.6%) as low conditional; 7 (2.8%) as high conditional; and 8 (3.2%) as high risk; inadequate tests, 11.6%. The probability of ischemic stroke at 10 years was 8.3% (SEM 2.3%); of stroke or high-risk TCD 15.6% (3.5%). Children with stroke or altered TCD (conditional and high risk) were compared to children with normal examinations. They were younger (P = 0.03), with lower hemoglobin (P = 0.003), higher leukocytosis (P = 0.015), and higher reticulocytosis (P < 0.001). Episodes per year of acute chest syndrome were also higher in that group, but not significantly (P = 0.09). Reticulocytosis remained the only significant variable upon multivariate analysis (P = 0.004). Basilar and middle cerebral artery velocities were significantly correlated (R = 0.55; P < 0.001). Probability of stroke was similar to international reports; of belonging to high-risk group, lower. High-reticulocyte count was the most important factor associated with cerebrovascular disease. Basilar artery velocity > 130 cm/sec seems to be an indirect sign of an underlying cerebrovascular disease. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.

PubMed

Xin, Cao; Chongshi, Gu

2016-01-01

Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.

[TOBACCO CONSUMPTION AMONG ADULTS IN MONTERREY: RELATION TO EXERCISE REGULARLY AND FAMILY].

PubMed

Ruiz-Juan, Francisco; Isorna-Folgar, Manuel; Ruiz-Risueño, Jorge; Vaquero-Cristóbal, Raquel

2015-08-01

determine the relationship among tobacco consumption, physical activity, sociodemographic variables and family behaviours in Mexican adults. 978 Mexican adults (483 males and 495 females) were interviewed by a random routes questionnaire. Multinomial logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratio (OR) and confidence interval (CI = 95%). men have a high risk factor of tobacco comsumption in frequency and/or amount. 18 to 45 years-old is the age range with high probability of tobacco comsumption, while the more age, the less comsumption. The tobacco consumption risk is significantly low in people who have less that a primary education. Participants who have never done physical exercise have a low possibility of tobacco consumption, while the consumption is high in the group of people who have abandoned physical activity. The family context is a risk factor of tobacco consumption in frequency. About alcohol consumption, it was found that people who drink alcohol have a high probability of smoke. tobacco consumption at high frequencies and amounts and physical activity are inversely relationship. It has been also detected a direct relationship between the frequency and the amount of tobacco and alcohol consumptions; and between the frequency and the amount of tobacco consumption and the family in the tobacco consumption. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Assessing the influence of risk factors on rates and dynamics of peripheral vein phlebitis: an observational cohort study.

PubMed

Mestre Roca, Gabriel; Berbel Bertolo, Cristina; Tortajada Lopez, Purificación; Gallemi Samaranch, Gema; Aguilar Ramirez, Mari Carmen; Caylà Buqueras, Joan; Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús; Martinez, José Antonio

2012-07-21

To assess the influence of risk factors on the rates and kinetics of peripheral vein phlebitis (PVP) development and its theoretical influence in absolute PVP reduction after catheter replacement. All peripheral short intravenous catheters inserted during one month were included (1201 catheters and 967 patients). PVP risk factors were assessed by a Cox proportional hazard model. Cumulative probability, conditional failure of PVP and theoretical estimation of the benefit from replacement at different intervals were performed. Female gender, catheter insertion at the emergency or medical-surgical wards, forearm site, amoxicillin-clavulamate or aminoglycosides were independent predictors of PVP with hazard ratios (95 confidence interval) of 1.46 (1.09-2.15), 1.94 (1.01-3.73), 2.51 (1.29-4.88), 1.93 (1.20-3.01), 2.15 (1.45-3.20) and 2.10 (1.01-4.63), respectively. Maximum phlebitis incidence was reached sooner in patients with ≥2 risk factors (days 3-4) than in those with <2 (days 4-5). Conditional failure increased from 0.08 phlebitis/one catheter-day for devices with ≤1 risk factors to 0.26 for those with ≥3. The greatest benefit of routine catheter exchange was obtained by replacement every 60h. However, this benefit differed according to the number of risk factors: 24.8% reduction with ≥3, 13.1% with 2, and 9.2% with ≤1. PVP dynamics is highly influenced by identifiable risk factors which may be used to refine the strategy of catheter management. Routine replacement every 72h seems to be strictly necessary only in high-risk catheters. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Rob; Aspinall, Willy; Odbert, Henry; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-08-01

Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

Probabilistic framework for the estimation of the adult and child toxicokinetic intraspecies uncertainty factors.

PubMed

Pelekis, Michael; Nicolich, Mark J; Gauthier, Joseph S

2003-12-01

Human health risk assessments use point values to develop risk estimates and thus impart a deterministic character to risk, which, by definition, is a probability phenomenon. The risk estimates are calculated based on individuals and then, using uncertainty factors (UFs), are extrapolated to the population that is characterized by variability. Regulatory agencies have recommended the quantification of the impact of variability in risk assessments through the application of probabilistic methods. In the present study, a framework that deals with the quantitative analysis of uncertainty (U) and variability (V) in target tissue dose in the population was developed by applying probabilistic analysis to physiologically-based toxicokinetic models. The mechanistic parameters that determine kinetics were described with probability density functions (PDFs). Since each PDF depicts the frequency of occurrence of all expected values of each parameter in the population, the combined effects of multiple sources of U/V were accounted for in the estimated distribution of tissue dose in the population, and a unified (adult and child) intraspecies toxicokinetic uncertainty factor UFH-TK was determined. The results show that the proposed framework accounts effectively for U/V in population toxicokinetics. The ratio of the 95th percentile to the 50th percentile of the annual average concentration of the chemical at the target tissue organ (i.e., the UFH-TK) varies with age. The ratio is equivalent to a unified intraspecies toxicokinetic UF, and it is one of the UFs by which the NOAEL can be divided to obtain the RfC/RfD. The 10-fold intraspecies UF is intended to account for uncertainty and variability in toxicokinetics (3.2x) and toxicodynamics (3.2x). This article deals exclusively with toxicokinetic component of UF. The framework provides an alternative to the default methodology and is advantageous in that the evaluation of toxicokinetic variability is based on the distribution of the effective target tissue dose, rather than applied dose. It allows for the replacement of the default adult and children intraspecies UF with toxicokinetic data-derived values and provides accurate chemical-specific estimates for their magnitude. It shows that proper application of probability and toxicokinetic theories can reduce uncertainties when establishing exposure limits for specific compounds and provide better assurance that established limits are adequately protective. It contributes to the development of a probabilistic noncancer risk assessment framework and will ultimately lead to the unification of cancer and noncancer risk assessment methodologies.

The Irrelevance of the Risk-Uncertainty Distinction.

PubMed

Roser, Dominic

2017-10-01

Precautionary Principles are often said to be appropriate for decision-making in contexts of uncertainty such as climate policy. Contexts of uncertainty are contrasted to contexts of risk depending on whether we have probabilities or not. Against this view, I argue that the risk-uncertainty distinction is practically irrelevant. I start by noting that the history of the distinction between risk and uncertainty is more varied than is sometimes assumed. In order to examine the distinction, I unpack the idea of having probabilities, in particular by distinguishing three interpretations of probability: objective, epistemic, and subjective probability. I then claim that if we are concerned with whether we have probabilities at all-regardless of how low their epistemic credentials are-then we almost always have probabilities for policy-making. The reason is that subjective and epistemic probability are the relevant interpretations of probability and we almost always have subjective and epistemic probabilities. In contrast, if we are only concerned with probabilities that have sufficiently high epistemic credentials, then we obviously do not always have probabilities. Climate policy, for example, would then be a case of decision-making under uncertainty. But, so I argue, we should not dismiss probabilities with low epistemic credentials. Rather, when they are the best available probabilities our decision principles should make use of them. And, since they are almost always available, the risk-uncertainty distinction remains irrelevant.

Insurance against climate change and flood risk: Insurability and decision processes of insurers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Hung, Jia-Yi

2016-04-01

1. Background Major portions of the Asia-Pacific region is facing escalating exposure and vulnerability to climate change and flood-related extremes. This highlights an arduous challenge for public agencies to improve existing risk management strategies. Conventionally, governmental funding was majorly responsible and accountable for disaster loss compensation in the developing countries in Asia, such as Taiwan. This is often criticized as an ineffective and inefficient measure of dealing with flood risk. Flood insurance is one option within the toolkit of risk-sharing arrangement and adaptation strategy to flood risk. However, there are numerous potential barriers for insurance companies to cover flood damage, which would cause the flood risk is regarded as uninsurable. This study thus aims to examine attitudes within the insurers about the viability of flood insurance, the decision-making processes of pricing flood insurance and their determinants, as well as to examine potential solutions to encourage flood insurance. 2. Methods and data Using expected-utility theory, an insurance agent-based decision-making model was developed to examine the insurers' attitudes towards the insurability of flood risk, and to scrutinize the factors that influence their decisions on flood insurance premium-setting. This model particularly focuses on how insurers price insurance when they face either uncertainty or ambiguity about the probability and loss of a particular flood event occurring. This study considers the factors that are expected to affect insures' decisions on underwriting and pricing insurance are their risk perception, attitudes towards flood insurance, governmental measures (e.g., land-use planning, building codes, risk communication), expected probabilities and losses of devastating flooding events, as well as insurance companies' attributes. To elicit insurers' utilities about premium-setting for insurance coverage, the 'certainty equivalent,' 'probability equivalent,' and 'gamble tradeoff' methods were used. We then synthesized a Tobit and an OLS regression analysis to identify and examine the determinants of insurers' decisions on insurability and pricing for flood risk. Furthermore, the data were collected through a questionnaire survey, which was conducted with the assistance from the Non-life Underwriters Society, Taiwan and the Actuarial Institute, Taiwan. After pretesting, questionnaires were mailed to 410 randomly chosen commercial property-and-casualty insurance firms' actuaries and underwriters. The final sample consisted of 179 questionnaires for a 43.8% response rate. 3. Results Results of the questionnaire survey reveal that flood risk tends to be more uninsurable when there is ambiguity regarding the probability of a particular flood event loss. The presence of insurers' risk aversion appears to be robust. Insurers would charge a significantly higher price for a flood insurance policy than normal property insurance. The findings also show that the insurers who perceived higher levels of flood risk, or/and had a company with smaller size or higher financial leverage, would trigger a higher premium for flood insurance. Governmental risk management strategies, such as land-use planning, building codes, flood-hazard zone regulations, also played a prominent role in enhancing insurability and decreasing insurance premium. Therefore, appropriate incentives should be combined with better public risk communication and mitigation strategies to stimulate insurance coverage in reducing flood loss.

[Irrationality and risk--a problem analysis].

PubMed

Bergler, R

1995-04-01

The way one experiences risks and one's risk behaviour is not centrally the result of rational considerations and decisions. Contradictions and incompatibilities can be proved empirically: (1) General paranoiac hysterical fear of risks, (2) complete repression of health risks, (3) unsureness and inability in dealing with risks, (4) prejudice against risks, (5) admiring risk behaviour, (6) seeking dangerous ways to test one's own limits, (7) readiness for aggression by not subjectively being able to control the risk, (8) naively assessing a risk positively thus intensifying pleasurable sensation, (9) increased preparedness to take risks in groups, (10) increased preparedness to take risk in anonymity, (11) accepting risks as a creative challenge for achievement motivation, (12) loss of innovation when avoiding risks. The awareness and assessment of risk factors is dependent on (1) personality factors (achievement-motivated persons experience risk as a creative challenge; risk behaviour being a variation in stimulus and exploration of one's environment), (2) the social back-ground (booster function), (3) the culture-related assessment of being able to control risks and (4) age (youthful risk behaviour being a way of coping with developmental exercises, e.g. purposely breaking parent's rules, provocatively demonstrating adult behaviour, a means to solve frustrating performance failures, advantages through social acceptance). The way one copes with risk factors is based on subjective estimation of risk; this assessment is made anew for each area of behaviour according to the specific situation. Making a decision and acting upon it is the result of simultaneously assessing the possible psychological benefit-cost factors of taking risks. The extent, to which the threat of risk factors is felt, depends on the importance one attaches to certain needs and benefits of quality of life and, in addition to this, what the subjective probabilities are that one is likely to be befallen by a particular risk; here it is possible that the subjective likelihoods of the risk occurring are maximized and minimized (e.g. hygiene, immunizations risks). The subjective risk hierarchies--they are often contrary to scientific knowledge--are additional evaluation factors.

Perinatal risk factors for pneumothorax and morbidity and mortality in very low birth weight infants.

PubMed

García-Muñoz Rodrigo, Fermín; Urquía Martí, Lourdes; Galán Henríquez, Gloria; Rivero Rodríguez, Sonia; Tejera Carreño, Patricia; Molo Amorós, Silvia; Cabrera Vega, Pedro; Rodríguez Ramón, Fernando

2017-11-01

To determine the perinatal risk factors for pneumothorax in Very-Low-Birth-Weight (VLBW) infants and the associated morbidity and mortality in this population. Retrospective analysis of data collected prospectively from a cohort of VLBW neonates assisted in our Unit (2006-2013). We included all consecutive in-born patients with ≤ 1500 g, without severe congenital anomalies. Perinatal history, demographics, interventions and clinical outcomes were collected. Associations were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. During the study period, 803 VLBW infants were assisted in our Unit, of whom 763 were inborn. Ten patients (1.2%) died in delivery room, and 18 (2.2%) with major congenital anomalies were excluded. Finally, 735 (91.5%) neonates were included in the study. Seventeen (2.3%) developed pneumothorax during the first week of life [median (IQR): 2 (1-2) days]. After correcting for GA and other confounders, prolonged rupture of membranes [aOR =1.002 (95% CI 1.000-1.003); p = 0.040] and surfactant administration [aOR = 6.281 (95% CI 1.688-23.373); p = 0.006] were the independent risk factors associated with pneumothorax. Patients with pneumothorax had lower probabilities of survival without major brain damage (MBD): aOR = 0.283 (95% CI = 0.095-0.879); p = 0.029. Pneumothorax in VLBW seems to be related to perinatal inflammation and surfactant administration, and it is significantly associated with a reduction in the probabilities of survival without MBD.

Disparities in Adverse Childhood Experiences among Sexual Minority and Heterosexual Adults: Results from a Multi-State Probability-Based Sample

PubMed Central

Andersen, Judith P; Blosnich, John

2013-01-01

Background Adverse childhood experiences (e.g., physical, sexual and emotional abuse, neglect, exposure to domestic violence, parental discord, familial mental illness, incarceration and substance abuse) constitute a major public health problem in the United States. The Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) scale is a standardized measure that captures multiple developmental risk factors beyond sexual, physical and emotional abuse. Lesbian, gay, and bisexual (i.e., sexual minority) individuals may experience disproportionately higher prevalence of adverse childhood experiences. Purpose To examine, using the ACE scale, prevalence of childhood physical, emotional, and sexual abuse and childhood household dysfunction among sexual minority and heterosexual adults. Methods Analyses were conducted using a probability-based sample of data pooled from three U.S. states’ Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) surveys (Maine, Washington, Wisconsin) that administered the ACE scale and collected information on sexual identity (n = 22,071). Results Compared with heterosexual respondents, gay/lesbian and bisexual individuals experienced increased odds of six of eight and seven of eight adverse childhood experiences, respectively. Sexual minority persons had higher rates of adverse childhood experiences (IRR = 1.66 gay/lesbian; 1.58 bisexual) compared to their heterosexual peers. Conclusions Sexual minority individuals have increased exposure to multiple developmental risk factors beyond physical, sexual and emotional abuse. We recommend the use of the Adverse Childhood Experiences scale in future research examining health disparities among this minority population. PMID:23372755

Environmental risk factors for cancers of the brain and nervous system: the use of ecological data to generate hypotheses.

PubMed

de Vocht, Frank; Hannam, Kimberly; Buchan, Iain

2013-05-01

There is a public health need to balance timely generation of hypotheses with cautious causal inference. For rare cancers this is particularly challenging because standard epidemiological study designs may not be able to elucidate causal factors in an early period of newly emerging risks. Alternative methodologies need to be considered for generating and shaping hypotheses prior to definitive investigation. To evaluate whether open-access databases can be used to explore links between potential risk factors and cancers at an ecological level, using the case study of brain and nervous system cancers as an example. National age-adjusted cancer incidence rates were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2008 resource and combined with data from the United Nations Development Report and the World Bank list of development indicators. Data were analysed using multivariate regression models. Cancer rates, potential confounders and environmental risk factors were available for 165 of 208 countries. 2008 national incidences of brain and nervous system cancers were associated with continent, gross national income in 2008 and Human Development Index Score. The only exogenous risk factor consistently associated with higher incidence was the penetration rate of mobile/cellular telecommunications subscriptions, although other factors were highlighted. According to these ecological results the latency period is at least 11-12 years, but probably more than 20 years. Missing data on cancer incidence and for other potential risk factors prohibit more detailed investigation of exposure-response associations and/or explore other hypotheses. Readily available ecological data may be underused, particularly for the study of risk factors for rare diseases and those with long latencies. The results of ecological analyses in general should not be overinterpreted in causal inference, but equally they should not be ignored where alternative signals of aetiology are lacking.

Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

2015-11-01

Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

Perceived risk of diabetes seriously underestimates actual diabetes risk: The KORA FF4 study

PubMed Central

Stang, Andreas; Bongaerts, Brenda; Kuss, Oliver; Herder, Christian; Roden, Michael; Quante, Anne; Holle, Rolf; Huth, Cornelia; Peters, Annette; Meisinger, Christa

2017-01-01

Objective Early detection of diabetes and prediabetic states is beneficial for patients, but may be delayed by patients´ being overly optimistic about their own health. Therefore, we assessed how persons without known diabetes perceive their risk of having or developing diabetes, and we identified factors associated with perception of diabetes risk. Research design and methods 1,953 participants without previously known diabetes from the population-based, German KORA FF4 Study (59.1 years, 47.8% men) had an oral glucose tolerance test. They estimated their probability of having undiagnosed diabetes mellitus (UDM) on a six category scale, and assessed whether they were at risk of developing diabetes in the future. We cross-tabulated glycemic status with risk perception, and fitted robust Poisson regression models to identify determinants of diabetes risk perception. Results 74% (95% CI: 65–82) of persons with UDM believed that their probability of having undetected diabetes was low or very low. 72% (95% CI: 69–75) of persons with prediabetes believed that they were not at risk of developing diabetes. In people with prediabetes, seeing oneself at risk of diabetes was associated with self-rated poor general health (prevalence ratio (PR) = 3.1 (95% CI: 1.4–6.8), parental diabetes (PR = 2.6, 1.9–3.4), high educational level (PR = 1.9 (1.4–2.5)), lower age (PR = 0.7, 0.6–0.8, per 1 standard deviation increase), female sex (PR = 1.2, 0.9–1.5) and obesity (PR = 1.5, 1.2–2.0). Conclusions People with undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes considerably underestimate their probability of having or developing diabetes. Contrary to associations with actual diabetes risk, perceived diabetes risk was lower in men, lower educated and older persons. PMID:28141837

Symptoms of anxiety or depression and risk of fracture in older people: the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

PubMed

Gale, Catharine R; Dennison, Elaine M; Edwards, Mark; Sayer, Avan Aihie; Cooper, Cyrus

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the prospective association between symptoms of anxiety and depression and risk of fracture in older people. Results showed that men, but not women, with probable anxiety at baseline had an increased risk of fracture. The use of psychotropic drugs has been linked with an increased risk of fracture in older people, but there are indications that the conditions for which these drugs were prescribed may themselves influence fracture risk. The aim of this study was to investigate the relation between symptoms of anxiety and depression and risk of fracture in older people. The study design is a prospective cohort study. One thousand eighty-seven men and 1,050 women aged 59-73 years completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). Data on incident fracture during an average follow-up period of 5.6 years were collected through interview and a postal questionnaire. Compared to men with no or few symptoms of anxiety (score ≤7 on the HADS anxiety subscale), men with probable anxiety (score ≥11) had an increased risk of fracture: After adjustment for age and potential confounding factors, the odds ratio (OR) (95 % confidence interval) was 4.03 (1.55, 10.5). There were no associations between levels of anxiety and fracture risk in women. Few men or women had probable depression at baseline (score ≥11 on the HADS depression subscale). Amongst men with possible depression (score 8-10), there was an increased risk of fracture that was of borderline significance: multivariate-adjusted OR 3.57 (0.99, 12.9). There was no association between possible depression and fracture risk in women. High levels of anxiety in older men may increase their risk of fracture. Future research needs to replicate this finding in other populations and investigate the underlying mechanisms.

On the forecasting the unfavorable periods in the technosphere by the space weather factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyakhov, N. N.

2002-12-01

There is the considerable progress in development of geomagnetic disturbances forecast technique, in the necessary time, by solar activity phenomena last years. The possible relationship between violations of the traffic safety terms (VTS) in East Siberian Railway during 1986-1999 and the space weather factors was investigated. The overall number of cases under consideration is equal to 11575. By methods of correlation and spectral analysis it was shown, that statistics of VTS has not a random and it's character is probably caused by space weather factors. The principal difference between rhythmic of VTS by purely technical reasons (MECH) (failures in mechanical systems) and, that of VTS caused by wrong operations of a personnel (MAN), is noted. Increase of sudden storm commencements number results in increase of probability of mistakable actions of an operator. Probability of violations in mechanical systems increases with increase of number of quiet geomagnetic conditions. This, in its turn, dictate different approach to the ordered rows of MECH and MAN data when forecasting the unfavourable periods as the priods of increased risk in working out a wrong decision by technological process participants. The advances in forecasting of geomagnetic environment technique made possible to start construction of systems of the operative informing about unfavourable factors of space weather for the interested organizations.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Safe days in space with acceptable uncertainty from space radiation exposure.

PubMed

Cucinotta, Francis A; Alp, Murat; Rowedder, Blake; Kim, Myung-Hee Y

2015-04-01

The prediction of the risks of cancer and other late effects from space radiation exposure carries large uncertainties mostly due to the lack of information on the risks from high charge and energy (HZE) particles and other high linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. In our recent work new methods were used to consider NASA's requirement to protect against the acceptable risk of no more than 3% probability of cancer fatality estimated at the 95% confidence level. Because it is not possible that a zero-level of uncertainty could be achieved, we suggest that an acceptable uncertainty level should be defined in relationship to a probability distribution function (PDF) that only suffers from modest skewness with higher uncertainty allowed for a normal PDF. In this paper, we evaluate PDFs and the number or "safe days" in space, which are defined as the mission length where risk limits are not exceeded, for several mission scenarios at different acceptable levels of uncertainty. In addition, we briefly discuss several important issues in risk assessment including non-cancer effects, the distinct tumor spectra and lethality found in animal experiments for HZE particles compared to background or low LET radiation associated tumors, and the possibility of non-targeted effects (NTE) modifying low dose responses and increasing relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factors for tumor induction. Each of these issues skew uncertainty distributions to higher fatality probabilities with the potential to increase central values of risk estimates in the future. Therefore they will require significant research efforts to support space exploration within acceptable levels of risk and uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR). Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rivaroxaban-induced chest wall spontaneous expanding hematoma.

PubMed

Salemis, Nikolaos S

2017-03-22

Rivaroxaban is an oral direct Factor Xa inhibitor approved in the European Union and the United Sates for the single-drug treatment of several thromboembolic diseases in adults. Ιt has been evaluated in large phase III clinical trials and has been found to have similar efficacy and safety with standard therapy. Herein, is described a very rare case of a rivaroxaban-induced spontaneous expanding chest wall hematoma, that required surgical intervention, in a breast cancer patient. Use of the Naranjo adverse drug reaction probability scale indicated a probable relationship (score of 7) between the patient's development of hematoma and treatment with rivaroxaban. Physicians should be cautious when prescribing rivaroxaban in groups of patients associated with increased bleeding risk such as patients with impaired renal or hepatic function, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, patients with certain types of cancers and patients receiving concomitant medications which may alter the pharmacokinetic or pharmacodymamic parameters of rivaroxaban. Anticoagulant treatment should be tailored to each individual patient weighing the bleeding risk against the risk of recurrent thrombosis.

Relative Velocity as a Metric for Probability of Collision Calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frigm, Ryan Clayton; Rohrbaugh, Dave

2008-01-01

Collision risk assessment metrics, such as the probability of collision calculation, are based largely on assumptions about the interaction of two objects during their close approach. Specifically, the approach to probabilistic risk assessment can be performed more easily if the relative trajectories of the two close approach objects are assumed to be linear during the encounter. It is shown in this analysis that one factor in determining linearity is the relative velocity of the two encountering bodies, in that the assumption of linearity breaks down at low relative approach velocities. The first part of this analysis is the determination of the relative velocity threshold below which the assumption of linearity becomes invalid. The second part is a statistical study of conjunction interactions between representative asset spacecraft and the associated debris field environment to determine the likelihood of encountering a low relative velocity close approach. This analysis is performed for both the LEO and GEO orbit regimes. Both parts comment on the resulting effects to collision risk assessment operations.

Sampling design for the Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA).

PubMed

Vasconcellos, Mauricio Teixeira Leite de; Silva, Pedro Luis do Nascimento; Szklo, Moyses; Kuschnir, Maria Cristina Caetano; Klein, Carlos Henrique; Abreu, Gabriela de Azevedo; Barufaldi, Laura Augusta; Bloch, Katia Vergetti

2015-05-01

The Study of Cardiovascular Risk in Adolescents (ERICA) aims to estimate the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and metabolic syndrome in adolescents (12-17 years) enrolled in public and private schools of the 273 municipalities with over 100,000 inhabitants in Brazil. The study population was stratified into 32 geographical strata (27 capitals and five sets with other municipalities in each macro-region of the country) and a sample of 1,251 schools was selected with probability proportional to size. In each school three combinations of shift (morning and afternoon) and grade were selected, and within each of these combinations, one class was selected. All eligible students in the selected classes were included in the study. The design sampling weights were calculated by the product of the reciprocals of the inclusion probabilities in each sampling stage, and were later calibrated considering the projections of the numbers of adolescents enrolled in schools located in the geographical strata by sex and age.

Lethal exposure: An integrated approach to pathogen transmission via environmental reservoirs

PubMed Central

Turner, Wendy C.; Kausrud, Kyrre L.; Beyer, Wolfgang; Easterday, W. Ryan; Barandongo, Zoë R.; Blaschke, Elisabeth; Cloete, Claudine C.; Lazak, Judith; Van Ert, Matthew N.; Ganz, Holly H.; Turnbull, Peter C. B.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Getz, Wayne M.

2016-01-01

To mitigate the effects of zoonotic diseases on human and animal populations, it is critical to understand what factors alter transmission dynamics. Here we assess the risk of exposure to lethal concentrations of the anthrax bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, for grazing animals in a natural system over time through different transmission mechanisms. We follow pathogen concentrations at anthrax carcass sites and waterholes for five years and estimate infection risk as a function of grass, soil or water intake, age of carcass sites, and the exposure required for a lethal infection. Grazing, not drinking, seems the dominant transmission route, and transmission is more probable from grazing at carcass sites 1–2 years of age. Unlike most studies of virulent pathogens that are conducted under controlled conditions for extrapolation to real situations, we evaluate exposure risk under field conditions to estimate the probability of a lethal dose, showing that not all reservoirs with detectable pathogens are significant transmission pathways. PMID:27265371

The relationship between lifestyle, working environment, socio-demographic factors and expulsion from the labour market due to disability pension among nurses.

PubMed

Friis, Karina; Ekholm, Ola; Hundrup, Yrsa Andersen

2008-06-01

Denmark is facing a shortage of nurses and this trend is anticipated to worsen within the next decades. The major reason for this shortage is that only very few nurses remain employed until the general retirement age. Every year several nurses are expelled from the labour market prematurely which causes a problem not only for the disabled nurses but also because it can affect the morale and productivity among the remaining personnel while new staff members are hired and trained. The aim of the study was to analyse the relationship between lifestyle, working environment, socio-demographic factors and disability pension (DP) among nurses. The study was based on 12,028 nurses above the age of 44 who in 1993 completed a questionnaire. The survey information was combined with longitudinal data from a register compiled by Statistics Denmark. The follow-up period was from 1993 to 2002. Nurses with relatively low gross incomes were more likely to become disability pensioners compared to nurses with high incomes (hazard ratio, HR 1.33 and HR 2.17). Also, nurses who were singles had a higher probability of entering DP (HR 1.63). Nurses who worked fixed evening or night shifts had higher risks of DP than nurses who worked daytime exclusively (HR 1.51 and HR 1.45). Smoking, obesity and having a sedentary lifestyle were also risk indicators for DP (HR 1.42, HR 1.63 and HR 1.50). Furthermore, low influence and high physical demands at work increased the probability of entering DP (HR 1.39 and HR 1.22). DP among nurses is influenced by a number of factors. Nurses who have poor working environments and/or unhealthy lifestyles have higher risks of becoming disability pensioners. Also, nurses who are singles and/or have low gross incomes have higher probability of entering DP.

Effect of atherothrombotic aorta on outcomes of total aortic arch replacement.

PubMed

Okada, Kenji; Omura, Atsushi; Kano, Hiroya; Inoue, Takeshi; Oka, Takanori; Minami, Hitoshi; Okita, Yutaka

2013-04-01

The effect of an atherothrombotic aorta on the short- and long-term outcomes of total aortic arch replacement, including postoperative neurologic deficits, remains unknown. We evaluated this relationship and also elucidated the synergistic effect of multiple other risk factors, in addition to an atherothrombotic aorta, on the neurologic outcome. A group of 179 consecutive patients undergoing total aortic arch replacement were studied. An atherothrombotic aorta was present in 34 patients (19%), more than moderate leukoaraiosis in 71 (39.7%), and significant extracranial carotid artery stenosis in 27 (15.1%). In-hospital deaths occurred in 2 patients, 1 (2.9%) of 34 patients with and 1 (0.7%) of 145 patients without an atherothrombotic aorta (P = .26). Permanent neurologic deficits occurred in 4 (2.2%) and transient neurologic deficits in 17 (9.5%) patients. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the risk factors for transient neurologic deficits were an atherothrombotic aorta (odds ratio, 4.4), extracranial carotid artery stenosis (odds ratio, 5.5), moderate/severe leukoaraiosis (odds ratio, 3.6), and cardiopulmonary bypass time (odds ratio, 1.02). To calculate the probability of transient neurologic deficits, the following equation was derived: probability of transient neurologic deficits = {1 + exp [7.276 - 1.489 (atherothrombotic aorta) - 1.285 (leukoaraiosis) - 1.701 (extracranial carotid artery stenosis) - 0.017 (cardiopulmonary bypass time)]}(-1). An exponential increase occurred in the probability of transient neurologic deficits with presence of an atherothrombotic aorta and other risk factors in relation to the cardiopulmonary bypass time. Survival at 3 years after surgery was significantly reduced in patients with vs without an atherothrombotic aorta (75.0% ± 8.8% vs 89.2% ± 3.1%, P = .01). Patients with an atherothrombotic aorta and associated preoperative comorbidities might be predisposed to adverse short- and long-term outcomes, including transient neurologic deficits. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Landscape, Environmental and Social Predictors of Hantavirus Risk in São Paulo, Brazil

PubMed Central

Uriarte, Maria; Tambosi, Leandro Reverberi; Prado, Amanda; Pardini, Renata; D´Andrea, Paulo Sérgio; Metzger, Jean Paul

2016-01-01

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which are negative-sense RNA viruses in the family Bunyaviridae that are highly virulent to humans. Numerous factors modify risk of Hantavirus transmission and consequent HPS risk. Human-driven landscape change can foster transmission risk by increasing numbers of habitat generalist rodent species that serve as the principal reservoir host. Climate can also affect rodent population dynamics and Hantavirus survival, and a number of social factors can influence probability of HPS transmission to humans. Evaluating contributions of these factors to HPS risk may enable predictions of future outbreaks, and is critical to development of effective public health strategies. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to quantify associations between annual HPS incidence across the state of São Paulo, Brazil (1993–2012) and climate variables (annual precipitation, annual mean temperature), landscape structure metrics (proportion of native habitat cover, number of forest fragments, proportion of area planted with sugarcane), and social factors (number of men older than 14 years and Human Development Index). We built separate models for the main two biomes of the state (cerrado and Atlantic forest). In both biomes Hantavirus risk increased with proportion of land cultivated for sugarcane and HDI, but proportion of forest cover, annual mean temperature, and population at risk also showed positive relationships in the Atlantic forest. Our analysis provides the first evidence that social, landscape, and climate factors are associated with HPS incidence in the Neotropics. Our risk map can be used to support the adoption of preventive measures and optimize the allocation of resources to avoid disease propagation, especially in municipalities that show medium to high HPS risk (> 5% of risk), and aimed at sugarcane workers, minimizing the risk of future HPS outbreaks. PMID:27780250

Derivation of data-driven triggers for palliative care consultation in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Hua, May S; Ma, Xiaoyue; Li, Guohua; Wunsch, Hannah

2018-04-30

To examine the ability of existing triggers for intensive care unit (ICU) palliative care consultation to predict 6-month mortality, and derive new triggers for consultation based on risk factors for 6-month mortality. Retrospective cohort study of NY state residents who received intensive care, 2008-2013. We examined sensitivity and specificity of existing triggers for predicting 6-month mortality and used logistic regression to generate patient subgroups at high-risk for 6-month mortality as potential novel triggers for ICU palliative care consultation. Of 1,019,849 patients, 195,847 (19.2%) died within 6 months of admission. Existing triggers were specific but not sensitive for predicting 6-month mortality, (sensitivity 0.3%-11.1%, specificity 96.5-99.9% for individual triggers). Using logistic regression, patient subgroups with the highest predicted probability of 6-month mortality were older patients admitted with sepsis (age 70-79 probability 49.7%, [49.5-50.0]) or cancer (non-metastatic cancer, age 70-79 probability 51.5%, [51.1-51.9]; metastatic cancer, age 70-79 probability 60.3%, [59.9-60.6]). Sensitivity and specificity of novel triggers ranged from 0.05% to 9.2% and 98.6% to 99.9%, respectively. Existing triggers for palliative care consultation are specific, but insensitive for 6-month mortality. Using a data-driven approach to derive novel triggers may identify subgroups of patients at high-risk of 6-month mortality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Arterial bypass iterative thrombosis and cancer: three cases].

PubMed

Villemur, B; Payraud, E; Seetha, V; De Angelis, M-P; Magne, J L; Perennou, D; Carpentier, P; Pernod, G

2014-02-01

Cancer associated with venous thromboembolic disease has been recognized since Trousseau, but a link between cancer and iterative arterial thrombosis is rarely described. We report three cases of patients with iterative bypass thrombosis in whom cancer was subsequently diagnosed: lung cancer in one patient and hepatocarcinoma and bladder cancer in the others. Smoking and hypertension were risk factors in both patients. The link between arterial thrombosis and cancer is probably multifactorial. In case of iterative arterial bypass thrombosis, the search for cancer is as useful as the control of cardiovascular risk factors and the search for antiphospholipid syndrome, since patient management can be affected. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Official Positions for FRAX(®) clinical regarding glucocorticoids: the impact of the use of glucocorticoids on the estimate by FRAX(®) of the 10 year risk of fracture from Joint Official Positions Development Conference of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation on FRAX(®).

PubMed

Leib, Edward S; Saag, Kenneth G; Adachi, Jonathan D; Geusens, Piet P; Binkley, Neil; McCloskey, Eugene V; Hans, Didier B

2011-01-01

Given the significant impact the use of glucocorticoids can have on fracture risk independent of bone density, their use has been incorporated as one of the clinical risk factors for calculating the 10-year fracture risk in the World Health Organization's Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX(®)). Like the other clinical risk factors, the use of glucocorticoids is included as a dichotomous variable with use of steroids defined as past or present exposure of 3 months or more of use of a daily dose of 5 mg or more of prednisolone or equivalent. The purpose of this report is to give clinicians guidance on adjustments which should be made to the 10-year risk based on the dose, duration of use and mode of delivery of glucocorticoids preparations. A subcommittee of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation joint Position Development Conference presented its findings to an expert panel and the following recommendations were selected. 1) There is a dose relationship between glucocorticoid use of greater than 3 months and fracture risk. The average dose exposure captured within FRAX(®) is likely to be a prednisone dose of 2.5-7.5 mg/day or its equivalent. Fracture probability is under-estimated when prednisone dose is greater than 7.5 mg/day and is over-estimated when the prednisone dose is less than 2.5 mg/day. 2) Frequent intermittent use of higher doses of glucocorticoids increases fracture risk. Because of the variability in dose and dosing schedule, quantification of this risk is not possible. 3) High dose inhaled glucocorticoids may be a risk factor for fracture. FRAX(®) may underestimate fracture probability in users of high dose inhaled glucocorticoids. 4) Appropriate glucocorticoid replacement in individuals with adrenal insufficiency has not been found to increase fracture risk. In such patients, use of glucocorticoids should not be included in FRAX(®) calculations. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probability of atrial fibrillation after ablation: Using a parametric nonlinear temporal decomposition mixed effects model.

PubMed

Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Blackstone, Eugene H; Ehrlinger, John; Li, Liang; Ishwaran, Hemant; Parides, Michael K

2018-01-01

Atrial fibrillation is an arrhythmic disorder where the electrical signals of the heart become irregular. The probability of atrial fibrillation (binary response) is often time varying in a structured fashion, as is the influence of associated risk factors. A generalized nonlinear mixed effects model is presented to estimate the time-related probability of atrial fibrillation using a temporal decomposition approach to reveal the pattern of the probability of atrial fibrillation and their determinants. This methodology generalizes to patient-specific analysis of longitudinal binary data with possibly time-varying effects of covariates and with different patient-specific random effects influencing different temporal phases. The motivation and application of this model is illustrated using longitudinally measured atrial fibrillation data obtained through weekly trans-telephonic monitoring from an NIH sponsored clinical trial being conducted by the Cardiothoracic Surgery Clinical Trials Network.

Risk management.

PubMed

Chambers, David W

2010-01-01

Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Kambiz; Ren, Jun; Roberts, Charles; Wang, Jin

2011-08-30

Ports and offshore terminals are critical infrastructure resources and play key roles in the transportation of goods and people. With more than 80 percent of international trade by volume being carried out by sea, ports and offshore terminals are vital for seaborne trade and international commerce. Furthermore in today's uncertain and complex environment there is a need to analyse the participated risk factors in order to prioritise protective measures in these critically logistics infrastructures. As a result of this study is carried out to support the risk assessment phase of the proposed Risk Management (RM) framework used for the purpose of sea ports and offshore terminals operations and management (PTOM). This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework into the risk assessment phase as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse the risk factors associated within the PTOM. This process will eventually help the port professionals and port risk managers to investigate the identified risk factors more in detail. In order to deal with vagueness of the data Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and possibility approach are used to overcome the disadvantages of the conventional probability based approaches. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lameness Prevalence and Risk Factors in Large Dairy Farms in Upstate New York. Model Development for the Prediction of Claw Horn Disruption Lesions

PubMed Central

Foditsch, Carla; Oikonomou, Georgios; Machado, Vinícius Silva; Bicalho, Marcela Luccas; Ganda, Erika Korzune; Lima, Svetlana Ferreira; Rossi, Rodolfo; Ribeiro, Bruno Leonardo; Kussler, Arieli; Bicalho, Rodrigo Carvalho

2016-01-01

The main objectives of this prospective cohort study were a) to describe lameness prevalence at drying off in large high producing New York State herds based on visual locomotion score (VLS) and identify potential cow and herd level risk factors, and b) to develop a model that will predict the probability of a cow developing claw horn disruption lesions (CHDL) in the subsequent lactation using cow level variables collected at drying off and/or available from farm management software. Data were collected from 23 large commercial dairy farms located in upstate New York. A total of 7,687 dry cows, that were less than 265 days in gestation, were enrolled in the study. Farms were visited between May 2012 and March 2013, and cows were assessed for body condition score (BCS) and VLS. Data on the CHDL events recorded by the farm employees were extracted from the Dairy-Comp 305 database, as well as information regarding the studied cows’ health events, milk production, and reproductive records throughout the previous and subsequent lactation period. Univariable analyses and mixed multivariable logistic regression models were used to analyse the data at the cow level. The overall average prevalence of lameness (VLS > 2) at drying off was 14%. Lactation group, previous CHDL, mature equivalent 305-d milk yield (ME305), season, BCS at drying off and sire PTA for strength were all significantly associated with lameness at the drying off (cow-level). Lameness at drying off was associated with CHDL incidence in the subsequent lactation, as well as lactation group, previous CHDL and ME305. These risk factors for CHDL in the subsequent lactation were included in our predictive model and adjusted predicted probabilities for CHDL were calculated for all studied cows. ROC analysis identified an optimum cut-off point for these probabilities and using this cut-off point we could predict CHDL incidence in the subsequent lactation with an overall specificity of 75% and sensitivity of 59%. Using this approach, we would have detected 33% of the studied population as being at risk, eventually identifying 59% of future CHDL cases. Our predictive model could help dairy producers focusing their efforts on CHDL reduction by implementing aggressive preventive measures for high risk cows. PMID:26795970

Quantitative analysis of the probability of introducing equine encephalosis virus (EEV) into The Netherlands.

PubMed

Fischer, Egil Andreas Joor; Martínez López, Evelyn Pamela; De Vos, Clazien J; Faverjon, Céline

2016-09-01

Equine encephalosis is a midge-borne viral disease of equines caused by equine encephalosis virus (EEV, Orbivirus, Reoviridae), and closely related to African horse sickness virus (AHSV). EEV and AHSV share common vectors and show similar transmission patterns. Until now EEV has caused outbreaks in Africa and Israel. This study aimed to provide insight in the probability of an EEV outbreak in The Netherlands caused by infected vectors or hosts, the contribution of potential source areas (risk regions) to this probability, and the effectiveness of preventive measures (sanitary regimes). A stochastic risk model constructed for risk assessment of AHSV introduction was adapted to EEV. Source areas were categorized in risk regions (high, low, and very low risk) based on EEV history and the presence of competent vectors. Two possible EEV introduction pathways were considered: importation of infected equines and importation of infected vectors along with their vertebrate hosts. The probability of EEV introduction (PEEV) was calculated by combining the probability of EEV release by either pathway and the probability of EEV establishment. The median current annual probability of EEV introduction by an infected equine was estimated at 0.012 (90% uncertainty interval 0.002-0.020), and by an infected vector at 4.0 10(-5) (90% uncertainty interval 5.3 10(-6)-2.0 10(-4)). Equines from high risk regions contributed most to the probability of EEV introduction with 74% on the EEV introduction by equines, whereas low and very low risk regions contributed 18% and 8%, respectively. International movements of horses participating in equestrian events contributed most to the probability of EEV introduction by equines from high risk regions (86%), but also contributed substantially for low and very low risk regions with 47% and 56%. The probability of introducing EEV into The Netherlands is much higher than the probability of introducing AHSV with equines from high risk countries contributing most. The introduction by an infected equine is the most likely pathway. Control measures before exportation of equines showed to have a strong mitigating effect on the probability of EEV introduction. The risk of EEV outbreaks should be taken into account when altering these import regulations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Early Risk Factors of Overweight Developmental Trajectories during Middle Childhood

PubMed Central

Pryor, Laura E.; Brendgen, Mara; Tremblay, Richard E.; Pingault, Jean-Baptiste; Liu, Xuecheng; Dubois, Lise; Touchette, Evelyne; Falissard, Bruno; Boivin, Michel; Côté, Sylvana M.

2015-01-01

Background Research is needed to identify early life risk factors associated with different developmental paths leading to overweight by adolescence. Objectives To model heterogeneity in overweight development during middle childhood and identify factors associated with differing overweight trajectories. Methods Data was drawn from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD; 1998-2010). Trained research assistants measured height and weight according to a standardized protocol and conducted yearly home interviews with the child’s caregiver (mother in 98% of cases). Information on several putative early life risk factors for the development of overweight were obtained, including factors related to the child’s perinatal, early behavioral family and social environment. Group-based trajectories of the probability of overweight (6-12 years) were identified with a semiparametric method (n=1678). Logistic regression analyses were used to identify early risk factors (5 months- 5 years) associated with each trajectory. Results Three trajectories of overweight were identified: “early-onset overweight” (11.0 %), “late-onset overweight” (16.6%) and “never overweight” (72.5%). Multinomial analyses indicated that children in the early and late-onset group, compared to the never overweight group, had 3 common types of risk factors: parental overweight, preschool overweight history, and large size for gestational age. Maternal overprotection (OR= 1.12, CI: 1.01-1.25), short nighttime sleep duration (OR=1.66, CI: 1.07-2.57), and immigrant status (OR=2.01, CI: 1.05-3.84) were factors specific to the early-onset group. Finally, family food insufficiency (OR=1.81, CI: 1.00-3.28) was weakly associated with membership in the late-onset trajectory group. Conclusions The development of overweight in childhood follows two different trajectories, which have common and distinct risk factors that could be the target of early preventive interventions. PMID:26121682

Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ren, Lei

2007-01-01

We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

Serum Hepatocyte Growth Factor Is Probably Associated With 3-Month Prognosis of Acute Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhengbao; Xu, Tan; Guo, Daoxia; Huangfu, Xinfeng; Zhong, Chongke; Yang, Jingyuan; Wang, Aili; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Peng, Yanbo; Xu, Tian; Wang, Jinchao; Sun, Yingxian; Peng, Hao; Li, Qunwei; Ju, Zhong; Geng, Deqin; Chen, Jing; Zhang, Yonghong; He, Jiang

2018-02-01

Serum hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) is positively associated with poor prognosis of heart failure and myocardial infarction, and it can also predict the risk of ischemic stroke in population. The goal of this study was to investigate the association between serum HGF and prognosis of ischemic stroke. A total of 3027 acute ischemic stroke patients were included in this post hoc analysis of the CATIS (China Antihypertensive Trial in Acute Ischemic Stroke). The primary outcome was composite outcome of death or major disability (modified Rankin Scale score ≥3) within 3 months. After multivariate adjustment, elevated HGF levels were associated with an increased risk of primary outcome (odds ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.03; P trend =0.015) when 2 extreme quartiles were compared. Each SD increase of log-transformed HGF was associated with 14% (95% confidence interval, 2%-27%) increased risk of primary outcome. Adding HGF quartiles to a model containing conventional risk factors improved the predictive power for primary outcome (net reclassification improvement: 17.50%, P <0.001; integrated discrimination index: 0.23%, P =0.022). The association between serum HGF and primary outcome could be modified by heparin pre-treatment ( P interaction =0.001), and a positive linear dose-response relationship between HGF and primary outcome was observed in patients without heparin pre-treatment ( P linearity <0.001) but not in those with heparin pre-treatment. Serum HGF levels were higher in the more severe stroke at baseline, and elevated HGF levels were probably associated with 3-month poor prognosis independently of stroke severity among ischemic stroke patients, especially in those without heparin pre-treatment. Further studies from other samples of ischemic stroke patients are needed to validate our findings. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

[Quantitative risk model for verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coli cross-contamination during homemade hamburger preparation].

PubMed

Signorini, M L; Frizzo, L S

2009-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a quantitative risk model for verocytotoxigenic Escherichia coil (VTEC) cross-contamination during hamburger preparation at home. Published scientific information about the disease was considered for the elaboration of the model, which included a number of routines performed during food preparation in kitchens. The associated probabilities of bacterial transference between food items and kitchen utensils which best described each stage of the process were incorporated into the model by using @Risk software. Handling raw meat before preparing ready-to-eat foods (Odds ratio, OR, 6.57), as well as hand (OR = 12.02) and cutting board (OR = 5.02) washing habits were the major risk factors of VTEC cross-contamination from meat to vegetables. The information provided by this model should be considered when designing public information campaigns on hemolytic uremic syndrome risk directed to food handlers, in order to stress the importance of the above mentioned factors in disease transmission.

A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons.

PubMed

Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A

2010-07-01

To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.

Lifetime Risk for Sudden Cardiac Death in the Community.

PubMed

Bogle, Brittany M; Ning, Hongyan; Mehrotra, Sanjay; Goldberger, Jeffrey J; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M

2016-06-29

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a leading cause of death in the United States and often occurs without previous cardiac symptoms. Lifetime risk for SCD and the influence of established risk factors on lifetime risks for SCD have not been estimated previously. We followed Framingham Heart Study participants who were free of cardiovascular disease before their earliest examination. SCD was defined as death attributed to coronary heart disease within 1 hour of symptom onset without another probable cause of death, as adjudicated by a panel of 3 physicians. Lifetime risk for SCD was estimated to 85 years of age for men and women, with death attributed to other causes as the competing risk, and stratified by risk factor levels. We followed 2294 men and 2785 women for 160 396 person-years; 375 experienced SCD. At 45 years of age, lifetime risks were 10.9% (95% CI, 9.4-12.5) for men and 2.8% (95% CI, 2.1-3.5) for women. Greater aggregate burden of established risk factors was associated with a higher lifetime risk for SCD. Categorizing men and women solely by blood pressure levels resulted in a clear stratification of lifetime risk curves. We present the first lifetime risk estimates for SCD. Greater aggregate risk factor burden, or blood pressure level alone, is associated with higher lifetime risks for SCD. This high risk of premature death attributed to SCD (approximately 1 in 9 men and 1 in 30 women) should serve as a motivator of public health efforts in preventing and responding to SCD. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

Some factors influencing the nonexpert's perception and evaluation of environmental risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vaughan, E.

Policy makers and decision analysts have been limited somewhat in their ability to predict public reactions to regulatory decisions about hazardous substances or technologies. Most studies of the nonexpert's evaluation of environmental risks have relied on survey data and correlational analyses which preclude the determination of interactive effects, effects that could explain apparent inconsistencies. Three experimental studies were designed to test empirically the effect of six dimensions of environmental risk on judgments of (1) perceived risk, (2) acceptability of risk, (3) subjective probability of negative outcomes due to exposure, and (4) perceived severity of consequences. Factors examined included: (a) familiaritymore » with the terms used to describe a hazard, (b) environmental persistence of a chemical, (c) personal relevance of data used to evaluate cancer-causing potential, (d) personal relevance of possible adverse consequences, (e) perceived control over exposure, and (f) vividness of the exposure pathway. The findings were discussed in terms of their implications for the nonexpert's formulation of risk perceptions, and public policy in the domain of environmental risks.« less

Risk-taking in disorders of natural and drug rewards: neural correlates and effects of probability, valence, and magnitude.

PubMed

Voon, Valerie; Morris, Laurel S; Irvine, Michael A; Ruck, Christian; Worbe, Yulia; Derbyshire, Katherine; Rankov, Vladan; Schreiber, Liana Rn; Odlaug, Brian L; Harrison, Neil A; Wood, Jonathan; Robbins, Trevor W; Bullmore, Edward T; Grant, Jon E

2015-03-01

Pathological behaviors toward drugs and food rewards have underlying commonalities. Risk-taking has a fourfold pattern varying as a function of probability and valence leading to the nonlinearity of probability weighting with overweighting of small probabilities and underweighting of large probabilities. Here we assess these influences on risk-taking in patients with pathological behaviors toward drug and food rewards and examine structural neural correlates of nonlinearity of probability weighting in healthy volunteers. In the anticipation of rewards, subjects with binge eating disorder show greater risk-taking, similar to substance-use disorders. Methamphetamine-dependent subjects had greater nonlinearity of probability weighting along with impaired subjective discrimination of probability and reward magnitude. Ex-smokers also had lower risk-taking to rewards compared with non-smokers. In the anticipation of losses, obesity without binge eating had a similar pattern to other substance-use disorders. Obese subjects with binge eating also have impaired discrimination of subjective value similar to that of the methamphetamine-dependent subjects. Nonlinearity of probability weighting was associated with lower gray matter volume in dorsolateral and ventromedial prefrontal cortex and orbitofrontal cortex in healthy volunteers. Our findings support a distinct subtype of binge eating disorder in obesity with similarities in risk-taking in the reward domain to substance use disorders. The results dovetail with the current approach of defining mechanistically based dimensional approaches rather than categorical approaches to psychiatric disorders. The relationship to risk probability and valence may underlie the propensity toward pathological behaviors toward different types of rewards.

Risk-Taking in Disorders of Natural and Drug Rewards: Neural Correlates and Effects of Probability, Valence, and Magnitude

PubMed Central

Voon, Valerie; Morris, Laurel S; Irvine, Michael A; Ruck, Christian; Worbe, Yulia; Derbyshire, Katherine; Rankov, Vladan; Schreiber, Liana RN; Odlaug, Brian L; Harrison, Neil A; Wood, Jonathan; Robbins, Trevor W; Bullmore, Edward T; Grant, Jon E

2015-01-01

Pathological behaviors toward drugs and food rewards have underlying commonalities. Risk-taking has a fourfold pattern varying as a function of probability and valence leading to the nonlinearity of probability weighting with overweighting of small probabilities and underweighting of large probabilities. Here we assess these influences on risk-taking in patients with pathological behaviors toward drug and food rewards and examine structural neural correlates of nonlinearity of probability weighting in healthy volunteers. In the anticipation of rewards, subjects with binge eating disorder show greater risk-taking, similar to substance-use disorders. Methamphetamine-dependent subjects had greater nonlinearity of probability weighting along with impaired subjective discrimination of probability and reward magnitude. Ex-smokers also had lower risk-taking to rewards compared with non-smokers. In the anticipation of losses, obesity without binge eating had a similar pattern to other substance-use disorders. Obese subjects with binge eating also have impaired discrimination of subjective value similar to that of the methamphetamine-dependent subjects. Nonlinearity of probability weighting was associated with lower gray matter volume in dorsolateral and ventromedial prefrontal cortex and orbitofrontal cortex in healthy volunteers. Our findings support a distinct subtype of binge eating disorder in obesity with similarities in risk-taking in the reward domain to substance use disorders. The results dovetail with the current approach of defining mechanistically based dimensional approaches rather than categorical approaches to psychiatric disorders. The relationship to risk probability and valence may underlie the propensity toward pathological behaviors toward different types of rewards. PMID:25270821

Stochastic Modelling of Past Volcanic Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2017-04-01

It is customary to have continuous monitoring of volcanoes showing signs of unrest that might lead to an eruption threatening local populations. Despite scientific progress in estimating the probability of an eruption occurring, the concept of continuously tracking eruption probability remains a future aspiration for volcano risk analysts. During some recent major volcanic crises, attempts have been made to estimate the eruption probability in real time to support government decision-making. These include the possibility of an eruption of Katla linked with the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, and the Santorini crisis of 2011-2012. However, once a crisis fades, interest in analyzing the probability that there might have been an eruption tends to wane. There is an inherent outcome bias well known to psychologists: if disaster was avoided, there is perceived to be little purpose in exploring scenarios where a disaster might have happened. Yet the better that previous periods of unrest are understood and modelled, the better that the risk associated with future periods of unrest will be quantified. Scenarios are counterfactual histories of the future. The task of quantifying the probability of an eruption for a past period of unrest should not be merely a statistical calculation, but should serve to elucidate and refine geophysical models of the eruptive processes. This is achieved by using a Bayesian Belief Network approach, in which monitoring observations are used to draw inferences on the underlying causal factors. Specifically, risk analysts are interested in identifying what dynamical perturbations might have tipped an unrest period in history over towards an eruption, and assessing what was the likelihood of such perturbations. Furthermore, in what ways might a historical volcano crisis have turned for the worse? Such important counterfactual questions are addressed in this paper.

Gas Hydrate Formation Probability Distributions: The Effect of Shear and Comparisons with Nucleation Theory.

PubMed

May, Eric F; Lim, Vincent W; Metaxas, Peter J; Du, Jianwei; Stanwix, Paul L; Rowland, Darren; Johns, Michael L; Haandrikman, Gert; Crosby, Daniel; Aman, Zachary M

2018-03-13

Gas hydrate formation is a stochastic phenomenon of considerable significance for any risk-based approach to flow assurance in the oil and gas industry. In principle, well-established results from nucleation theory offer the prospect of predictive models for hydrate formation probability in industrial production systems. In practice, however, heuristics are relied on when estimating formation risk for a given flowline subcooling or when quantifying kinetic hydrate inhibitor (KHI) performance. Here, we present statistically significant measurements of formation probability distributions for natural gas hydrate systems under shear, which are quantitatively compared with theoretical predictions. Distributions with over 100 points were generated using low-mass, Peltier-cooled pressure cells, cycled in temperature between 40 and -5 °C at up to 2 K·min -1 and analyzed with robust algorithms that automatically identify hydrate formation and initial growth rates from dynamic pressure data. The application of shear had a significant influence on the measured distributions: at 700 rpm mass-transfer limitations were minimal, as demonstrated by the kinetic growth rates observed. The formation probability distributions measured at this shear rate had mean subcoolings consistent with theoretical predictions and steel-hydrate-water contact angles of 14-26°. However, the experimental distributions were substantially wider than predicted, suggesting that phenomena acting on macroscopic length scales are responsible for much of the observed stochastic formation. Performance tests of a KHI provided new insights into how such chemicals can reduce the risk of hydrate blockage in flowlines. Our data demonstrate that the KHI not only reduces the probability of formation (by both shifting and sharpening the distribution) but also reduces hydrate growth rates by a factor of 2.

Application of portfolio theory to risk-based allocation of surveillance resources in animal populations.

PubMed

Prattley, D J; Morris, R S; Stevenson, M A; Thornton, R

2007-09-14

Distribution of finite levels of resources between multiple competing tasks can be a challenging problem. Resources need to be distributed across time periods and geographic locations to increase the probability of detection of a disease incursion or significant change in disease pattern. Efforts should focus primarily on areas and populations where risk factors for a given disease reach relatively high levels. In order to target resources into these areas, the overall risk level can be evaluated periodically across locations to create a dynamic national risk landscape. Methods are described to integrate the levels of various risk factors into an overall risk score for each area, to account for the certainty or variability around those measures and then to allocate surveillance resources across this risk landscape. In addition to targeting resources into high risk areas, surveillance continues in lower risk areas where there is a small yet positive chance of disease occurrence. In this paper we describe the application of portfolio theory concepts, routinely used in finance, to design surveillance portfolios for a series of examples. The appropriate level of resource investment is chosen for each disease or geographical area and time period given the degree of disease risk and uncertainty present.

Adjusting for car occupant injury liability in relation to age, speed limit, and gender-specific driver crash involvement risk.

PubMed

Keall, Michael; Frith, William

2004-12-01

It is well established that older drivers' fragility is an important factor associated with higher levels of fatal crash involvement for older drivers. There has been less research on age-related fragility with respect to the sort of minor injuries that are more common in injury crashes. This study estimates a quantity that is related to injury fragility: the probability that a driver or a passenger of that driver will be injured in crashes involving two cars. The effects of other factors apart from drivers' fragility are included in this measure, including the fragility of the passengers, the crashworthiness of cars driven, seatbelt use by the occupants, and characteristics of crashes (including configuration and impact speed). The car occupant injury liability estimates appropriately includes these factors to adjust risk curves by age, gender, and speed limit accounting for overrepresentation in crashes associated with fragility and these other factors.

Assessing peridomestic entomological factors as predictors for Lyme disease

USGS Publications Warehouse

Connally, N.P.; Ginsberg, H.S.; Mather, T.N.

2006-01-01

The roles of entomologic risk factors, including density of nymphal blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis), prevalence of nymphal infection with the etiologic agent (Borrelia burgdorferi), and density of infected nymphs, in determining the risk of human Lyme disease were assessed at residences in the endemic community of South Kingstown, RI. Nymphs were sampled between May and July from the wooded edge around 51 and 47 residential properties in 2002 and 2003, respectively. Nymphs were collected from all residences sampled. Tick densities, infection rates, and densities of infected nymphs were all significantly higher around homes reporting Lyme disease histories in 2003, while only infection rates were significantly higher in 2002. However, densities of infected nymphs did not significantly predict the probability of Lyme disease at a residence (by logistic regression) in either year. There were no significant differences in entomologic risk factors between homes with state-confirmed Lyme disease histories and homes with self-reported cases (not reported to the state health department). Therefore, although entomologic risk factors tended to be higher at residences with cases of Lyme disease, entomological indices, in the absence of human behavior measures, were not useful predictors of Lyme disease at the scale of individual residences in a tick-endemic community.

Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

[Adolescents, risk situations and road safety].

PubMed

Meneses Falcón, Carmen; Gil García, Eugenia; Romo Avilés, Nuria

2010-09-01

Describe the risk behaviour relationships with road safety in adolescents. Cross-sectional descriptive study. Madrid and Andalusia Regions, representative samples. The sample included 3,612 in secondary school pupils from Madrid (n=1708) and Andalusia (n=1904). The survey was carried out during May and June 2007. The data collected included sociodemographic areas (age, sex, grade, father's profession, birth place, etc.) and risk situation and behaviour (risk behaviour as driver or passenger). 16.2% of the adolescents have been involved in a dangerous situation with motorcycles during the last year. 16.7% never use a helmet when riding a motorcycle and 62% do not wear one when riding a bicycle on the road; 17.4% frequently ride a motorcycle over the speed limit and 24.5% when driving a car. There are significant differences regarding sex, grade and region (Madrid or Andalusia). There are four factors which explain 62% of the variance: drug factor, speed factor, security factor and passenger factor. Two of these have twice the probability of having a dangerous situation when riding a motorcycle: drug factor (OR=1.96; 95% CI, 1.77-2.18) and the speed factor ((OR=2.13; 95% CI, 1.92-2.36). Adolescents in higher grades and living in Andalusia were less road safety conscious. This pattern should be taken into account when designing preventive actions in Road Safety Education. 2009 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Job strain (demands and control model) as a predictor of cardiovascular risk factors among petrochemical personnel

PubMed Central

Habibi, Ehsanollah; Poorabdian, Siamak; Shakerian, Mahnaz

2015-01-01

Background: One of the practical models for the assessment of stressful working conditions due to job strain is job demand and control model, which explains how physical and psychological adverse consequences, including cardiovascular risk factors can be established due to high work demands (the amount of workload, in addition to time limitations to complete that work) and low control of the worker on his/her work (lack of decision making) in the workplace. The aim of this study was to investigate how certain cardiovascular risk factors (including body mass index [BMI], heart rate, blood pressure, cholesterol and smoking) and the job demand and job control are related to each other. Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study was conducted on 500 workers of the petrochemical industry in south of Iran, 2009. The study population was selected using simple random statistical method. They completed job demand and control questionnaire. The cardiovascular risk factors data was extracted from the workers hygiene profiles. Chi-square (χ2) test and hypothesis test (η) were used to assess the possible relationship between different quantified variables, individual demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. Results: The results of this study revealed that a significant relationship can be found between job demand control model and cardiovascular risk factors. Chi-square test result for the heart rate showed the highest (χ2 = 145.078) relationship, the corresponding results for smoking and BMI were χ2 = 85.652 and χ2 = 30.941, respectively. Subsequently, hypothesis testing results for cholesterol and hypertension was 0.469 and 0.684, respectively. Discussion: Job strain is likely to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular risk factors among male staff in a petrochemical company in Iran. The parameters illustrated in the Job demands and control model can act as acceptable predictors for the probability of job stress occurrence followed by showing a high trend of CVD risk factors. PMID:25861661

Reducing Community Vulnerability to Wildland Fires in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.

2010-12-01

In the US fires are not treated like other hazards such as earthquakes but rather as preventable through landscape fuel treatments and aggressive fire suppression. In southern California extreme fire weather has made it impossible to control all fires and thus loss of homes and lives is a constant threat to communities. There is growing evidence that indicate we are not likely to ever eliminate fires on these landscapes. Thus, it is time to reframe the fire problem and think of fires like we do with other natural hazards such as earthquakes. We do not attempt to stop earthquakes, rather the primary emphasis is on altering human infrastructure in ways that minimize community vulnerability. In other words we need to change our approach from risk elimination to risk management. This approach means we accept that we cannot eliminate fires but rather learn to live with fire by communities becoming more fire adapted. We potentially can make great strides in reducing community vulnerability by finding those factors with high impacts and are sensitive to changes in management. Presently, decision makers have relatively little guidance about which of these is likely to have the greatest impact. Future reductions in fire risk to communities requires we address both wildland and urban elements that contribute to destructive losses. Damage risk or D is determined by: D = f (I, S, E, G, H) where I = the probability of a fire starting in the landscape S = the probability of the fire reaching a size sufficient to reach the urban environment E = probability of it encroaching into the urban environment G = probability of fire propagating within the built environment H = probability of a fire, once within the built environment, resulting in the destruction of a building. In southern California, reducing I through more strategic fire prevention has potential for reducing fire risk. There are many ignition sources that could be reduced, such as replacing power line ignitions with underground lines, strategically employing arson patrols during Santa Ana wind events, enforcing regulations on power equipment use in wildland areas, k-rail barriers along roads to reduce fire spread into wildland areas etc. S, or the probability of fire reaching urban environments has historically been the primary focus of state and federal fire management activities. There is a need for greater focus on understanding the most strategic application of wildland fuel treatments. E, the probability of fire encroaching into the urban environment, has largely been addressed in the past by attention to wildland-urban interface (WUI) fuel treatments. The one factor that has perhaps the greatest potential for impacting E are patterns of urban growth, both in strategic placement and spatial patterning within communities, and this is an area where alternative future growth scenarios could have huge impacts on fire outcomes. G, the chance of fire propagating within the urban environment is a function of urban fuels, which include both home construction and landscaping. This area has the potential for effecting large changes in fire losses dependent upon future regulations on plantings in the urban environment.

Development of a risk assessment tool for projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for Chinese women.

PubMed

Wang, Yuan; Gao, Ying; Battsend, Munkhzul; Chen, Kexin; Lu, Wenli; Wang, Yaogang

2014-11-01

The optimal approach regarding breast cancer screening for Chinese women is unclear due to the relative low incidence rate. A risk assessment tool may be useful for selection of high-risk subsets of population for mammography screening in low-incidence and resource-limited developing country. The odd ratios for six main risk factors of breast cancer were pooled by review manager after a systematic research of literature. Health risk appraisal (HRA) model was developed to predict an individual's risk of developing breast cancer in the next 5 years from current age. The performance of this HRA model was assessed based on a first-round screening database. Estimated risk of breast cancer increased with age. Increases in the 5-year risk of developing breast cancer were found with the existence of any of included risk factors. When individuals who had risk above median risk (3.3‰) were selected from the validation database, the sensitivity is 60.0% and the specificity is 47.8%. The unweighted area under the curve (AUC) was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.50-0.78). The risk-prediction model reported in this article is based on a combination of risk factors and shows good overall predictive power, but it is still weak at predicting which particular women will develop the disease. It would be very helpful for the improvement of a current model if more population-based prospective follow-up studies were used for the validation.

Hormonal treatment, mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease

PubMed Central

Ryan, Joanne; Scali, Jaqueline; Carriere, Isabelle; Ritchie, Karen; Ancelin, Marie-Laure

2008-01-01

A plethora of in vitro and in vivo studies have supported the neuroprotective role of estrogens and their impact on the neurotransmitter systems implicated in cognition. Recent hormonal replacement therapy trials in non-demented post-menopausal women suggest a temporary positive effect (notably on verbal memory), and four meta-analyses converge to suggest a possible protective effect in relation to Alzheimer’s disease (reducing risk by 29 to 44%). However, data from the only large randomized controlled trial published to date, the Women’s Health Initiative Memory Study, did not confirm these observations and have even suggested an increase in dementia risk for women using hormonal replacement therapy compared to controls. Apart from methodological differences, one key short-coming of this trial has probably been the focus on late-onset (postmenopausal) hormonal changes, i.e. at a time when the neurodegenerative process has already begun and without taking into account individual lifetime exposure to hormone variability. Multifactorial models based on an exhaustive view of all hormonal events throughout the reproductive life (rather than on a specific exposure to a given steroid) together with other risk factors (notably genetic risk factors related to estrogen receptor polymorphisms) should be explored to clarify the role of hormonal risk factors, or protective factors for cognitive dysfunction and dementia. PMID:18072983

Maternal well-being and its association to risk of developmental problems in children at school entry

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Children at highest risk of developmental problems benefit from early identification and intervention. Investigating factors affecting child development at the time of transition to school may reveal opportunities to tailor early intervention programs for the greatest effectiveness, social benefit and economic gain. The primary objective of this study was to identify child and maternal factors associated with children who screened at risk of developmental problems at school entry. Methods An existing cohort of 791 mothers who had been followed since early pregnancy was mailed a questionnaire when the children were aged four to six years. The questionnaire included a screening tool for developmental problems, an assessment of the child's social competence, health care utilization and referrals, and maternal factors, including physical health, mental health, social support, parenting morale and sense of competence, and parenting support/resources. Results Of the 491 mothers (62%) who responded, 15% had children who were screened at high risk of developmental problems. Based on a logistic regression model, independent predictors of screening at high risk for developmental problems at age 5 were male gender (OR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.3, 4.1), maternal history of abuse at pregnancy (OR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.3, 4.4), and poor parenting morale when the child was 3 years old (OR: 3.9; 95% CI: 2.1, 7.3). A child with all of these risk factors had a 35% predicted probability of screening at high risk of developmental problems, which was reduced to 13% if maternal factors were favourable. Conclusions Risk factors for developmental problems at school entry are related to maternal well being and history of abuse, which can be identified in the prenatal period or when children are preschool age. PMID:20338052

Subclinical hyperthyroidism and sudden unexpected death in epilepsy.

PubMed

Scorza, Fulvio A; Arida, Ricardo M; Cysneiros, Roberta M; Terra, Vera C; de Albuquerque, Marly; Machado, Hélio R; Cavalheiro, Esper A

2010-04-01

Epilepsy is the most common serious neurological condition and sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is the most important direct epilepsy-related cause of death. Information concerning risk factors for SUDEP is conflicting, but high seizure frequency is a potential risk factor. Additionally, potential pathomechanisms for SUDEP are unknown, but it is very probable that cardiac arrhythmias during and between seizures or transmission of epileptic activity to the heart via the autonomic nervous system potentially play a role. In parallel, several studies have shown a link between hormones and epilepsy. However, exact knowledge regarding the association of thyroid hormones and epilepsy is lacking. As subclinical hyperthyroidism has been linked with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, we propose in this paper that SUDEP, at least in some cases, could be related with subclinical thyroid dysfunction. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Prevalence of osteoporosis, estimation of probability of fracture and bone metabolism study in patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer in the health area of Lugo].

PubMed

Miguel-Carrera, Jonatan; García-Porrua, Carlos; de Toro Santos, Francisco Javier; Picallo-Sánchez, Jose Antonio

2018-03-01

To study the prevalence of osteoporosis and fracture probability in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer. Observational descriptive transversal study. SITE: Study performed from Primary Care of Lugo in collaboration with Rheumatology and Urology Services of our referral hospital. Patients diagnosed with prostate cancer without bone metastatic disease from January to December 2012. Epidemiologic, clinical, laboratory and densitometric variables involved in osteoporosis were collected. The likelihood of fracture was estimated by FRAX ® Tool. Eighty-three patients met the inclusion criteria. None was excluded. The average age was 67 years. The Body Mass Index was 28.28. Twenty-five patients (30.1%) had previous osteoporotic fractures. Other prevalent risk factors were alcohol (26.5%) and smoking (22.9%). Eighty-two subjects had vitamin D below normal level (98.80%). Femoral Neck densitometry showed that 8.9% had osteoporosis and 54% osteopenia. The average fracture risk in this population, estimated by FRAX ® , was 2.63% for hip fracture and 5.28% for major fracture. Cut level for FRAX ® major fracture value without DXA >5% and ≥7.5% proposed by Azagra et al. showed 24 patients (28.92%) and 8 patients (9.64%) respectively. The prevalence of osteoporosis in this population was very high. The more frequent risk factors associated with osteoporosis were: previous osteoporotic fracture, alcohol consumption, smoking and family history of previous fracture. The probability of fracture using femoral neck FRAX ® tool was low. Vitamin D deficiency was very common (98.8%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The Importance of HRA in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlin, Teri

2010-01-01

Human performance is critical to crew safety during space missions. Humans interact with hardware and software during ground processing, normal flight, and in response to events. Human interactions with hardware and software can cause Loss of Crew and/or Vehicle (LOCV) through improper actions, or may prevent LOCV through recovery and control actions. Humans have the ability to deal with complex situations and system interactions beyond the capability of machines. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method used to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the occurrence of human failures that affect availability and reliability of complex systems. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure probabilities in a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides a more complete picture of system risks and risk contributions. A high-quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedures, human interfaces design, and the need for automation. Modeling human error has always been a challenge in part because performance data is not always readily available. For spaceflight, the challenge is amplified not only because of the small number of participants and limited amount of performance data available, but also due to the lack of definition of the unique factors influencing human performance in space. These factors, called performance shaping factors in HRA terminology, are used in HRA techniques to modify basic human error probabilities in order to capture the context of an analyzed task. Many of the human error modeling techniques were developed within the context of nuclear power plants and therefore the methodologies do not address spaceflight factors such as the effects of microgravity and longer duration missions. This presentation will describe the types of human error risks which have shown up as risk drivers in the Shuttle PRA which may be applicable to commercial space flight. As with other large PRAs of complex machines, human error in the Shuttle PRA proved to be an important contributor (12 percent) to LOCV. An existing HRA technique was adapted for use in the Shuttle PRA, but additional guidance and improvements are needed to make the HRA task in space-related PRAs easier and more accurate. Therefore, this presentation will also outline plans for expanding current HRA methodology to more explicitly cover spaceflight performance shaping factors.

Longitudinal Assessment of Left Ventricular Structure and Function in Adolescents with Developmental Coordination Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chirico, Daniele; O'Leary, Deborah; Cairney, John; Haluka, Karen; Coverdale, Nicole S.; Klentrou, Panagiota; Hay, John; Faught, Brent E.

2012-01-01

Children with developmental coordination disorder (DCD) are more likely to develop cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors such as obesity and reduced cardio-respiratory fitness. It has also been shown that adolescents with probable DCD (p-DCD) have elevated cardiac output (CO) and stroke volume (SV) compared to typically developing (TD)…

The Relationship between Student Health and Academic Performance: Implications for School Psychologists

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaw, Steven R.; Gomes, Paul; Polotskaia, Anna; Jankowska, Anna M.

2015-01-01

Children who are unhealthy are at higher risk for school problems than students who are free from medical problems. Students with poor health have a higher probability of school failure, grade retention, and dropout. The relationship between student health and academic success is complex. Common manageable factors of student health are nutrition,…

Erythrocyte omega-3 fatty acids are inversely associated with incident dementia: Secondary analyses of longitudinal data from the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study (WHIMS).

PubMed

Ammann, Eric M; Pottala, James V; Robinson, Jennifer G; Espeland, Mark A; Harris, William S

2017-06-01

To assess whether red blood cell (RBC) docosahexaenoic acid and eicosapentaenoic acid (DHA+EPA) levels have a protective association with the risk of dementia in older women. RBC DHA+EPA levels were assessed at baseline, and cognitive status was evaluated annually in a cohort of 6706 women aged ≥65 years who participated in the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study (WHIMS). Cox regression was used to quantify the association between RBC DHA+EPA and the risk of probable dementia, independent of major dementia risk factors. During a median follow-up period of 9.8 years, 587 incident cases of probable dementia were identified. After adjusting for demographic, clinical, and behavioral risk factors, a one standard deviation increase in DHA+EPA levels was associated with a significantly lower risk of dementia (HR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.84, 1.00; p < 0.05). This effect estimate did not meaningfully change after further adjustment for baseline cognitive function and APOE genotype. For women with high DHA+EPA exposure (1SD above mean) compared to low exposure (1SD below mean), the adjusted 15-year absolute risk difference for dementia was 2.1% (95% CI: 0.2%, 4.0%). In secondary analyses, we also observed a protective association with longitudinal change in Modified Mini-Mental State (3MS) Exam scores, but no significant association with incident MCI, PD/MCI, or baseline 3MS scores. Higher levels of DHA+EPA may help protect against the development of dementia. Results from prospective randomized controlled trials of DHA+EPA supplementation are needed to help clarify whether this association is causal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Acute Brain Dysfunction: Development and Validation of a Daily Prediction Model.

PubMed

Marra, Annachiara; Pandharipande, Pratik P; Shotwell, Matthew S; Chandrasekhar, Rameela; Girard, Timothy D; Shintani, Ayumi K; Peelen, Linda M; Moons, Karl G M; Dittus, Robert S; Ely, E Wesley; Vasilevskis, Eduard E

2018-03-24

The goal of this study was to develop and validate a dynamic risk model to predict daily changes in acute brain dysfunction (ie, delirium and coma), discharge, and mortality in ICU patients. Using data from a multicenter prospective ICU cohort, a daily acute brain dysfunction-prediction model (ABD-pm) was developed by using multinomial logistic regression that estimated 15 transition probabilities (from one of three brain function states [normal, delirious, or comatose] to one of five possible outcomes [normal, delirious, comatose, ICU discharge, or died]) using baseline and daily risk factors. Model discrimination was assessed by using predictive characteristics such as negative predictive value (NPV). Calibration was assessed by plotting empirical vs model-estimated probabilities. Internal validation was performed by using a bootstrap procedure. Data were analyzed from 810 patients (6,711 daily transitions). The ABD-pm included individual risk factors: mental status, age, preexisting cognitive impairment, baseline and daily severity of illness, and daily administration of sedatives. The model yielded very high NPVs for "next day" delirium (NPV: 0.823), coma (NPV: 0.892), normal cognitive state (NPV: 0.875), ICU discharge (NPV: 0.905), and mortality (NPV: 0.981). The model demonstrated outstanding calibration when predicting the total number of patients expected to be in any given state across predicted risk. We developed and internally validated a dynamic risk model that predicts the daily risk for one of three cognitive states, ICU discharge, or mortality. The ABD-pm may be useful for predicting the proportion of patients for each outcome state across entire ICU populations to guide quality, safety, and care delivery activities. Copyright © 2018 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The interplay of stressful life events and coping skills on risk for suicidal behavior among youth students in contemporary China: a large scale cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Tang, Fang; Xue, Fuzhong; Qin, Ping

2015-07-31

Stressful life events are common among youth students and may induce psychological problems and even suicidal behaviors in those with poor coping skills. This study aims to assess the influence of stressful life events and coping skills on risk for suicidal behavior and to elucidate the underlying mechanism using a large sample of university students in China. 5972 students, randomly selected from 6 universities, completed the questionnaire survey. Logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate the effect of stressful life events and coping skills on risk for suicidal behavior. Bayesian network was further adopted to probe their probabilistic relationships. Of the 5972 students, 7.64% reported the presence of suicidal behavior (attempt or ideation) within the past one year period. Stressful life events such as strong conflicts with classmates and a failure in study exam constituted strong risk factors for suicidal behavior. The influence of coping skills varied according to the strategies adapted toward problems with a high score of approach coping skills significantly associated with a reduced risk of suicidal behavior. The Bayesian network indicated that the probability of suicidal behavior associated with specific life events was to a large extent conditional on coping skills. For instance, a stressful experience of having strong conflicts with classmates could result in a probability of suicidal behavior of 21.25% and 15.36% respectively, for female and male students with the score of approach coping skills under the average. Stressful life events and deficient coping skills are strong risk factors for suicidal behavior among youth students. The results underscore the importance of prevention efforts to improve coping skills towards stressful life events.

Parental separation, parental alcoholism, and timing of first sexual intercourse.

PubMed

Waldron, Mary; Doran, Kelly A; Bucholz, Kathleen K; Duncan, Alexis E; Lynskey, Michael T; Madden, Pamela A F; Sartor, Carolyn E; Heath, Andrew C

2015-05-01

We examined timing of first voluntary sexual intercourse as a joint function of parental separation during childhood and parental history of alcoholism. Data were drawn from a birth cohort of female like-sex twins (n = 569 African ancestry [AA]; n = 3,415 European or other ancestry [EA]). Cox proportional hazards regression was conducted predicting age at first sex from dummy variables coding for parental separation and parental alcoholism. Propensity score analysis was also employed to compare intact and separated families, stratified by predicted probability of separation. Earlier sex was reported by EA twins from separated and alcoholic families, compared to EA twins from intact nonalcoholic families, with effects most pronounced through the age of 14 years. Among AA twins, effects of parental separation and parental alcoholism were largely nonsignificant. Results of propensity score analyses confirmed unique risks from parental separation in EA families, where consistent effects of parental separation were observed across predicted probability of separation. For AA families, there was poor matching on risk factors presumed to predate separation, which limited interpretability of survival-analytic findings. In European American families, parental separation during childhood is an important predictor of early-onset sex, beyond parental alcoholism and other correlated risk factors. To characterize risk for African Americans associated with parental separation, additional research is needed where matching on confounders can be achieved. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Impact of the Emerging Genomics Data on the Management of Agerelated Phenotypes in the Context of Cellular Senescence.

PubMed

Montesanto, Alberto; Geracitano, Silvana; Garasto, Sabrina; Fusco, Sergio; Lattanzio, Fabrizia; Passarino, Giuseppe; Corsonello, Andrea

2016-01-01

Before the last decade, attempts to identify the genetic factors involved in the susceptibility to age-related complex diseases such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancer had very limited success. Recently, two important advancements have provided new opportunities to improve our knowledge in this field. Firstly, it has emerged the concept of studying the molecular mechanisms underlying the age related decline of the organism (such as cellular senescence), rather than the genetics of single disorders. In addition, advances in DNA technology have uncovered an incredible number of common susceptibility variants for several complex traits. Despite these progresses, the translation of these discoveries into clinical practice has been very difficult. To date, several attempts in translating genomics to medicine are being carried out to look for the best way by which genomic discoveries may improve our understanding of fundamental issues in the prediction and prevention of some complex diseases. The successful strategy seems to be testing simultaneously multiple susceptibility variants in combination with traditional risk factors. In fact, such approach showed that genetic factors substantially improve the prediction of complex diseases especially for coronary heart disease and prostate cancer, making possible appropriate behavioural and medical interventions. In the future, the identification of new genetic variants and their inclusion into current risk profile models will probably improve the discrimination power of these models for other complex diseases such as type 2 diabetes mellitus and breast cancer. On the other hand, for traits with low heritability, this improvement will probably be negligible, and this will urge further researches on the role played by traditional and newly discovered non-genetic risk factors.

Postnatal depressive symptoms among Pacific mothers in Auckland: prevalence and risk factors.

PubMed

Abbott, Max W; Williams, Maynard M

2006-03-01

To assess the prevalence of and risk factors for postnatal depressive symptoms in a cohort of mothers of Pacific Island infants in Auckland, New Zealand. The data were gathered as part of the Pacific Island Families Study, in which 1376 mothers were interviewed when their babies were 6 weeks old. The interview included the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). 16.4% of mothers were assessed as probably experiencing depression. Prevalence rates varied from 7.6% for Samoans to 30.9% for Tongans. In addition to ethnicity, risk factors identified by stepwise multiple logistic regression included low Pacific Island acculturation, first birth, stress due to insufficient food, household income less than dollar 40,000, difficulty with transport, dissatisfaction with pregnancy, birth experience, baby's sleep patterns, partner relationship and home. A large prevalence difference between Tongans and other groups remained when the effects of other risk factors were controlled statistically. The prevalence of depressive symptoms among Pacific mothers is at the upper end of the range typically reported. Focus on the overall rate, however, obscures substantial variation between groups. Risk factors are generally similar to those identified in previous research. The findings have implications for prevention and treatment and caution against assuming homogeneity within ethnic categories. Further research is required to explain differences in prevalence between Tongan and other Pacific Island groups.

Advantages of a multi-state approach in surgical research: how intermediate events and risk factor profile affect the prognosis of a patient with locally advanced rectal cancer.

PubMed

Manzini, G; Ettrich, T J; Kremer, M; Kornmann, M; Henne-Bruns, D; Eikema, D A; Schlattmann, P; de Wreede, L C

2018-02-13

Standard survival analysis fails to give insight into what happens to a patient after a first outcome event (like first relapse of a disease). Multi-state models are a useful tool for analyzing survival data when different treatments and results (intermediate events) can occur. Aim of this study was to implement a multi-state model on data of patients with rectal cancer to illustrate the advantages of multi-state analysis in comparison to standard survival analysis. We re-analyzed data from the RCT FOGT-2 study by using a multi-state model. Based on the results we defined a high and low risk reference patient. Using dynamic prediction, we estimated how the survival probability changes as more information about the clinical history of the patient becomes available. A patient with stage UICC IIIc (vs UICC II) has a higher risk to develop distant metastasis (DM) or both DM and local recurrence (LR) if he/she discontinues chemotherapy within 6 months or between 6 and 12 months, as well as after the completion of 12 months CTx with HR 3.55 (p = 0.026), 5.33 (p = 0.001) and 3.37 (p < 0.001), respectively. He/she also has a higher risk to die after the development of DM (HR 1.72, p = 0.023). Anterior resection vs. abdominoperineal amputation means 63% risk reduction to develop DM or both DM and LR (HR 0.37, p = 0.003) after discontinuation of chemotherapy between 6 and 12 months. After development of LR, a woman has a 4.62 times higher risk to die (p = 0.006). A high risk reference patient has an estimated 43% 5-year survival probability at start of CTx, whereas for a low risk patient this is 79%. After the development of DM 1 year later, the high risk patient has an estimated 5-year survival probability of 11% and the low risk patient one of 21%. Multi-state models help to gain additional insight into the complex events after start of treatment. Dynamic prediction shows how survival probabilities change by progression of the clinical history.

Clustering of Multiple Risk Behaviors Among a Sample of 18-Year-Old Australians and Associations With Mental Health Outcomes: A Latent Class Analysis.

PubMed

Champion, Katrina E; Mather, Marius; Spring, Bonnie; Kay-Lambkin, Frances; Teesson, Maree; Newton, Nicola C

2018-01-01

Risk behaviors commonly co-occur, typically emerge in adolescence, and become entrenched by adulthood. This study investigated the clustering of established (physical inactivity, diet, smoking, and alcohol use) and emerging (sedentary behavior and sleep) chronic disease risk factors among young Australian adults, and examined how clusters relate to mental health. The sample was derived from the long-term follow-up of a cohort of Australians. Participants were initially recruited at school as part of a cluster randomized controlled trial. A total of 853 participants (M age  = 18.88 years, SD = 0.42) completed an online self-report survey as part of the 5-year follow-up for the RCT. The survey assessed six behaviors (binge drinking and smoking in the past 6 months, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity/week, sitting time/day, fruit and vegetable intake/day, and sleep duration/night). Each behavior was represented by a dichotomous variable reflecting adherence to national guidelines. Exploratory analyses were conducted. Clusters were identified using latent class analysis. Three classes emerged: "moderate risk" (moderately likely to binge drink and not eat enough fruit, high probability of insufficient vegetable intake; Class 1, 52%); "inactive, non-smokers" (high probabilities of not meeting guidelines for physical activity, sitting time and fruit/vegetable consumption, very low probability of smoking; Class 2, 24%), and "smokers and binge drinkers" (high rates of smoking and binge drinking, poor fruit/vegetable intake; Class 3, 24%). There were significant differences between the classes in terms of psychological distress ( p  = 0.003), depression ( p  < 0.001), and anxiety ( p  = 0.003). Specifically, Class 3 ("smokers and binge drinkers") showed higher levels of distress, depression, and anxiety than Class 1 ("moderate risk"), while Class 2 ("inactive, non-smokers") had greater depression than the "moderate risk" group. Results indicate that risk behaviors are prevalent and clustered in 18-year old Australians. Mental health symptoms were significantly greater among the two classes that were characterized by high probabilities of engaging in multiple risk behaviors (Classes 2 and 3). An examination of the clustering of lifestyle risk behaviors is important to guide the development of preventive interventions. Our findings reinforce the importance of delivering multiple health interventions to reduce disease risk and improve mental well-being.

Communicating the Threat of a Tropical Cyclone to the Eastern Range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winters, Katherine A.; Roeder, William P.; McAleenan, Mike; Belson, Brian L.; Shafer, Jaclyn A.

2012-01-01

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) has developed a tool to help visualize the Wind Speed Probability product from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and to help communicate that information to space launch customers and decision makers at the 45th Space Wing (45 SW) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) located in east central Florida. This paper reviews previous work and presents the new visualization tool, including initial feedback as well as the pros and cons. The NHC began issuing their Wind Speed Probability product for tropical cyclones publicly in 2006. The 45 WS uses this product to provide a threat assessment to 45 SW and KSC leadership for risk evaluations with an approaching tropical cyclone. Although the wind speed probabilities convey the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone well, communicating this information to customers is a challenge. The 45 WS continually strives to provide the wind speed probability information to customers in a context which clearly communicates the threat of a tropical cyclone. First, an intern from the Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) Atmospheric Sciences department, sponsored by Scitor Corporation, independently evaluated the NHC wind speed probability product. This work was later extended into a M.S. thesis at FIT, partially funded by Scitor Corporation and KSC. A second thesis at FIT further extended the evaluation partially funded by KSC. Using this analysis, the 45 WS categorized the probabilities into five probability interpretation categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High. These probability interpretation categories convert the forecast probability and forecast interval into easily understood categories that are consistent across all ranges of probabilities and forecast intervals. As a follow-on project, KSC funded a summer intern to evaluate the human factors of the probability interpretation categories, which ultimately refined some of the thresholds. The 45 WS created a visualization tool to express the timing and risk for multiple locations in a single graphic. Preliminary results on an on-going project by FIT will be included in this paper. This project is developing a new method of assigning the probability interpretation categories and updating the evaluation of the performance of the NHC wind speed probability analysis.

A Predictive Risk Model for A(H7N9) Human Infections Based on Spatial-Temporal Autocorrelation and Risk Factors: China, 2013–2014

PubMed Central

Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quan-Li; Yang, Yu-Lian

2015-01-01

This study investigated the spatial distribution, spatial autocorrelation, temporal cluster, spatial-temporal autocorrelation and probable risk factors of H7N9 outbreaks in humans from March 2013 to December 2014 in China. The results showed that the epidemic spread with significant spatial-temporal autocorrelation. In order to describe the spatial-temporal autocorrelation of H7N9, an improved model was developed by introducing a spatial-temporal factor in this paper. Logistic regression analyses were utilized to investigate the risk factors associated with their distribution, and nine risk factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of A(H7N9) human infections: the spatial-temporal factor φ (OR = 2546669.382, p < 0.001), migration route (OR = 0.993, p < 0.01), river (OR = 0.861, p < 0.001), lake(OR = 0.992, p < 0.001), road (OR = 0.906, p < 0.001), railway (OR = 0.980, p < 0.001), temperature (OR = 1.170, p < 0.01), precipitation (OR = 0.615, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (OR = 1.337, p < 0.001). The improved model obtained a better prediction performance and a higher fitting accuracy than the traditional model: in the improved model 90.1% (91/101) of the cases during February 2014 occurred in the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) of the predictive risk map, whereas 44.6% (45/101) of which overlaid on the high risk areas (the predictive risk > 0.70) for the traditional model, and the fitting accuracy of the improved model was 91.6% which was superior to the traditional model (86.1%). The predictive risk map generated based on the improved model revealed that the east and southeast of China were the high risk areas of A(H7N9) human infections in February 2014. These results provided baseline data for the control and prevention of future human infections. PMID:26633446

Application of wildfire simulation methods to assess wildfire exposure in a Mediterranean fire-prone area (Sardinia, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, M.; Ager, A.; Arca, B.; Finney, M.; Bacciu, V. M.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

2012-12-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of fire spread and behavior are dependent on interactions among climate, topography, vegetation and fire suppression efforts (Pyne et al. 1996; Viegas 2006; Falk et al. 2007). Humans also play a key role in determining frequency and spatial distribution of ignitions (Bar Massada et al, 2011), and thus influence fire regimes as well. The growing incidence of catastrophic wildfires has led to substantial losses for important ecological and human values within many areas of the Mediterranean basin (Moreno et al. 1998; Mouillot et al. 2005; Viegas et al. 2006a; Riaño et al. 2007). The growing fire risk issue has led to many new programs and policies of fuel management and risk mitigation by environmental and fire agencies. However, risk-based methodologies to help identify areas characterized by high potential losses and prioritize fuel management have been lacking for the region. Formal risk assessment requires the joint consideration of likelihood, intensity, and susceptibility, the product of which estimates the chance of a specific loss (Brillinger 2003; Society of Risk Analysis, 2006). Quantifying fire risk therefore requires estimates of a) the probability of a specific location burning at a specific intensity and location, and b) the resulting change in financial or ecological value (Finney 2005; Scott 2006). When large fires are the primary cause of damage, the application of this risk formulation requires modeling fire spread to capture landscape properties that affect burn probability. Recently, the incorporation of large fire spread into risk assessment systems has become feasible with the development of high performance fire simulation systems (Finney et al. 2011) that permit the simulation of hundreds of thousands of fires to generate fine scale maps of burn probability, flame length, and fire size, while considering the combined effects of weather, fuels, and topography (Finney 2002; Andrews et al. 2007; Ager and Finney 2009; Finney et al. 2009; Salis et al. 2012 accepted). In this work, we employed wildfire simulation methods to quantify wildfire exposure to human and ecological values for the island of Sardinia, Italy. The work was focused on the risk and exposure posed by large fires (e.g. 100 - 10,000 ha), and considers historical weather, ignition patterns and fuels. We simulated 100,000 fires using burn periods that replicated the historical size distribution on the Island, and an ignition probability grid derived from historic ignition data. We then examine spatial variation in three exposure components (burn probability, flame length, fire size) among important human and ecological values. The results allowed us to contract exposure among and within the various features examined, and highlighted the importance of human factors in shaping wildfire exposure in Sardinia. The work represents the first application of burn probability modeling in the Mediterranean region, and sets the stage for expanded work in the region to quantify risk from large fires

Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, A. R.; Shiao, M. C.; Nagpal, V. K.; Chamis, C. C.

1992-01-01

This paper summarizes a methodology developed at NASA Lewis Research Center which computationally simulates the structural, material, and load uncertainties associated with Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) components. The methodology was applied to evaluate the scatter in static, buckling, dynamic, fatigue, and damage behavior of the SSME turbo pump blade. Also calculated are the probability densities of typical critical blade responses, such as effective stress, natural frequency, damage initiation, most probable damage path, etc. Risk assessments were performed for different failure modes, and the effect of material degradation on the fatigue and damage behaviors of a blade were calculated using a multi-factor interaction equation. Failure probabilities for different fatigue cycles were computed and the uncertainties associated with damage initiation and damage propagation due to different load cycle were quantified. Evaluations on the effects of mistuned blades on a rotor were made; uncertainties in the excitation frequency were found to significantly amplify the blade responses of a mistuned rotor. The effects of the number of blades on a rotor were studied. The autocorrelation function of displacements and the probability density function of the first passage time for deterministic and random barriers for structures subjected to random processes also were computed. A brief discussion was included on the future direction of probabilistic structural analysis.

Environmental factors associated with overweight and obesity in taiwanese children.

PubMed

Chen, Yang-Ching; Chen, Pau-Chung; Hsieh, Wu-Shiun; Portnov, Boris A; Chen, Yu-An; Lee, Yungling Leo

2012-11-01

We explored the relationship among sociodemographic, behavioural, household environmental and perinatal factors, and risks of childhood overweight and obesity in Taiwan. A total of 7930 children aged 9 to 14 years were recruited from 14 randomly selected Taiwanese communities in 2007 and 2010. Height and weight were measured using standard protocols during school visits. Questionnaires that contained children's family information, birth conditions, exercise habits and household environmental factors were answered by the parents. Associations between risk factors and childhood overweight and obesity were estimated through odds ratio and 95% confidence interval from mixed models. In this cohort, 32.3% of the children were overweight and 17.5% were obese. Male gender, high birthweight, exposure to in utero maternal smoking and current exposure to household environmental tobacco smoke (stronger effect of maternal than paternal smoking) were positively associated with childhood overweight/obesity. In contrast, higher parental education level, number of siblings, active exercise habits and taking vitamins were associated with reduced risks of childhood obesity. Birthweight revealed a J-shaped relationship with the probability of childhood overweight/obesity. This study uncovers several modifiable risk factors for childhood overweight and obesity, and parents are encouraged to provide an anti-obesity environment such as quitting smoking, controlling birthweight of child during pregnancy and building up exercise habits. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Management of bone mineral density in HIV-infected patients.

PubMed

Negredo, Eugenia; Bonjoch, Anna; Clotet, Bonaventura

2016-01-01

Loss of bone mineral density is an emerging problem in persons living with HIV infection. Earlier and more rapid bone demineralization has been attributed not only to the high prevalence of traditional risk factors, but also to specific HIV-related factors. The aim of this guidance is to stimulate an appropriate management of osteoporosis in this population, to identify patients at risk and to better manage them. Appropriate screening of HIV-infected subjects to identify those at risk for bone fractures is described, as well as the recommended interventions. American and European recommendations in HIV-infected and non-infected populations were considered. As the etiology of bone loss is multifactorial, many factors have to be addressed. Overall, recommendations on traditional risk factors are the same for HIV-infected and non-HIV-infected subjects. However, we should consider some specific factors in the HIV-infected population, including an appropriate antiretroviral therapy in patients with low bone mineral density, and probably novel strategies that could provide an additional benefit, such as anti-inflammatory drugs, although data supporting this approach are scant. Some personal opinions are highlighted on the management of bone health in HIV-infected subjects, mainly on the use of FRAX(®) score and DXA scans. In addition, the need to implement new strategies to delay demineralization is remarked upon.

Associations of different phenotypes of wheezing illness in early childhood with environmental variables implicated in the aetiology of asthma.

PubMed

Granell, Raquel; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Henderson, John

2012-01-01

Asthma is a complex heterogeneous disease that has increased in prevalence in many industrialised countries. However, the causes of asthma inception remain elusive. Consideration of sub-phenotypes of wheezing may reveal important clues to aetiological risk factors. Longitudinal phenotypes capturing population heterogeneity in wheezing reports from birth to 7 years were derived using latent class analysis in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Probability of class membership was used to examine the association between five wheezing phenotypes (transient early, prolonged early, intermediate-onset, late-onset, persistent) and early life risk factors for asthma. Phenotypes had similar patterns and strengths of associations with early environmental factors. Comparing transient early with prolonged early wheezing showed a similar pattern of association with most exposure variables considered in terms of the direction of the effect estimates but with prolonged early wheezing tending to have stronger associations than transient early wheezing except for parity and day care attendance. Associations with early life risk factors suggested that prolonged early wheeze might be a severe form of transient early wheezing. Although differences were found in the associations of early life risk factors with individual phenotypes, these did not point to novel aetiological pathways. Persistent wheezing phenotype has features suggesting overlap of early and late-onset phenotypes.

Serosurveillance of infectious agents in equines of the Central Valley of Costa Rica.

PubMed

Jiménez, D; Romero-Zuñiga, J J; Dolz, G

2014-01-01

Blood samples from 181 equines from the Central Valley of Costa Rica were collected in the year 2012 to determine the presence of antibodies against selected infectious agents in horses and to determine the risk factors associated with these agents. The presence of antibodies against Equine Infectious Anemia Virus (EIAV), Equine Herpes Virus 1 and 4 (EHV-1 and EHV-4), West Nile Virus (WNV), Influenza A Virus (IAV), Equine Viral Arteritis Virus (EVAV), Babesia caballi, Theileria equi, Neospora caninum and Chlamydia abortus was determined using commercial assays, and risk factors associated with seropositivity to the different infectious agents was established. The most seroprevalent agent detected was EHV-4 (96.7%), followed by WNV (44.2%), and IAV (41.8%). Horses >3 years, used for work or sports, and with access to pastures, had significantly increased probability to be seropositive to WNV, whereas horses used for breeding and recreational purposes, being stabled, and without access to pastures, had significantly greater probability to be seropositive to IAV. Seroprevalence to B. caballi (19.9%) was lower than to T. equi (38.1%). For B. caballi, access to pastures was determined as a risk factor, whereas being older than 3 years was established as a risk factor for T. equi. Low seroprevalences were determined for EHV-1 (5.0%), EVAV (5.0%), C. abortus (4.8%), and N. caninum (4.4%). Mares having history of abortion were more likely to be seropositive to EHV-1, whereas horses >3 years, used for work and sports, and mares having multiple parturitions, were more likely to be seropositive to N. caninum. None of the horses were seropositive to EIAV. Earlier, only diseases caused by EIAV, WNV and piroplasmosis were reported in Costa Rica. The present study however, determined the presence of carriers for EHV-1, EHV-4, and EIAV.

Serosurveillance of infectious agents in equines of the Central Valley of Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Jiménez, D.; Romero-Zuñiga, J.J.; Dolz, G.

2014-01-01

Blood samples from 181 equines from the Central Valley of Costa Rica were collected in the year 2012 to determine the presence of antibodies against selected infectious agents in horses and to determine the risk factors associated with these agents. The presence of antibodies against Equine Infectious Anemia Virus (EIAV), Equine Herpes Virus 1 and 4 (EHV-1 and EHV-4), West Nile Virus (WNV), Influenza A Virus (IAV), Equine Viral Arteritis Virus (EVAV), Babesia caballi, Theileria equi, Neospora caninum and Chlamydia abortus was determined using commercial assays, and risk factors associated with seropositivity to the different infectious agents was established. The most seroprevalent agent detected was EHV-4 (96.7%), followed by WNV (44.2%), and IAV (41.8%). Horses >3 years, used for work or sports, and with access to pastures, had significantly increased probability to be seropositive to WNV, whereas horses used for breeding and recreational purposes, being stabled, and without access to pastures, had significantly greater probability to be seropositive to IAV. Seroprevalence to B. caballi (19.9%) was lower than to T. equi (38.1%). For B. caballi, access to pastures was determined as a risk factor, whereas being older than 3 years was established as a risk factor for T. equi. Low seroprevalences were determined for EHV-1 (5.0%), EVAV (5.0%), C. abortus (4.8%), and N. caninum (4.4%). Mares having history of abortion were more likely to be seropositive to EHV-1, whereas horses >3 years, used for work and sports, and mares having multiple parturitions, were more likely to be seropositive to N. caninum. None of the horses were seropositive to EIAV. Earlier, only diseases caused by EIAV, WNV and piroplasmosis were reported in Costa Rica. The present study however, determined the presence of carriers for EHV-1, EHV-4, and EIAV. PMID:26623349

Evolving epidemiology of Nipah virus infection in Bangladesh: evidence from outbreaks during 2010–2011

PubMed Central

CHAKRABORTY, A.; SAZZAD, H. M. S.; HOSSAIN, M. J.; ISLAM, M. S.; PARVEEN, S.; HUSAIN, M.; BANU, S. S.; PODDER, G.; AFROJ, S.; ROLLIN, P. E.; DASZAK, P.; LUBY, S. P.; RAHMAN, M.; GURLEY, E. S.

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Drinking raw date palm sap is the primary route of Nipah virus (NiV) transmission from bats to people in Bangladesh; subsequent person-to-person transmission is common. During December 2010 to March 2011, we investigated NiV epidemiology by interviewing cases using structured questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and group discussions to collect clinical and exposure histories. We conducted a case-control study to identify risk factors for transmission. We identified 43 cases; 23 were laboratory-confirmed and 20 probable. Thirty-eight (88%) cases died. Drinking raw date palm sap and contact with an infected person were major risk factors; one healthcare worker was infected and for another case transmission apparently occurred through contact with a corpse. In absence of these risk factors, apparent routes of transmission included drinking fermented date palm sap. For the first time, a case was detected in eastern Bangladesh. Identification of new epidemiological characteristics emphasizes the importance of continued NiV surveillance and case investigation. PMID:26122675

Evolving epidemiology of Nipah virus infection in Bangladesh: evidence from outbreaks during 2010-2011.

PubMed

Chakraborty, A; Sazzad, H M S; Hossain, M J; Islam, M S; Parveen, S; Husain, M; Banu, S S; Podder, G; Afroj, S; Rollin, P E; Daszak, P; Luby, S P; Rahman, M; Gurley, E S

2016-01-01

Drinking raw date palm sap is the primary route of Nipah virus (NiV) transmission from bats to people in Bangladesh; subsequent person-to-person transmission is common. During December 2010 to March 2011, we investigated NiV epidemiology by interviewing cases using structured questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and group discussions to collect clinical and exposure histories. We conducted a case-control study to identify risk factors for transmission. We identified 43 cases; 23 were laboratory-confirmed and 20 probable. Thirty-eight (88%) cases died. Drinking raw date palm sap and contact with an infected person were major risk factors; one healthcare worker was infected and for another case transmission apparently occurred through contact with a corpse. In absence of these risk factors, apparent routes of transmission included drinking fermented date palm sap. For the first time, a case was detected in eastern Bangladesh. Identification of new epidemiological characteristics emphasizes the importance of continued NiV surveillance and case investigation.

[Pediatric anesthesia emergence delirium after elective ambulatory surgery: etiology, risk factors and prevalence].

PubMed

Gololobov, Alik; Todris, Liat; Berman, Yakov; Rosenberg-Gilad, Zipi; Schlaeffer, Pnina; Kenett, Ron; Ben-Jacob, Ron; Segal, Eran

2015-04-01

Emergence delirium (ED) is a common problem among children and adults recovering from general anesthesia after surgery. Its symptoms include psychomotor agitation, hallucinations, and aggressive behavior. The phenomenon, which is most probably an adverse effect of general anesthesia agents, harms the recovery process and endangers the physical safety of patients and their health. Ranging between 10% and 80%, the exact prevalence of ED is unknown, and the risk factors of the phenomenon are unclear. The aim of the current retrospective study was to determine the prevalence rate of ED in 3947 children recovering from general anesthesia after short elective ambulatory surgery, and to map the influence of various risk factors on this phenomenon. Data were collected using electronic medical records. ED severity was assessed using the Pediatric Anesthesia Emergence Delirium Scale. Results showed the prevalence of ED among children. ED was significantly correlated with patients' age, type of surgery and premedication. ED was not correlated with severity of pain, type of anesthesia or with patients' sex.

Prevention, Detection and Management of Coronary Artery Disease in Minority Females.

PubMed

Bullock-Palmer, Renée P

2015-11-05

Heart disease is the leading cause of death for women living in the United States; this disease claims more female lives than all cancers combined. Additionally, according to the Centers of Disease Control data between the years 1979 and 2006, while cardiac-related mortality among men decreased significantly, only a modest decline was found among women. This disparity is greatest among minority females including Blacks and Hispanics who have an even greater prevalence of CVD and its risk factors. There are several risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD). Modifiable risk factors include: tobacco smoking, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, obesity and physical inactivity. The prevention of CAD is grounded in decreasing or removing these modifiable risk factors. Accurately diagnosing CAD is dependent on an accurate assessment of the patient's pre-test probability to determine the best diagnostic approach to pursue. The patient's functional status, resting EKG and cardiac risk factors also assist in determining the best non-invasive cardiac test to pursue. The goals and mainstay in the management of minority females with stable CAD includes surveillance for CAD symptoms, management of hypertension, diabetes mellitus and hyperlipidemia, as well as encouraging healthy habits. Heart disease remains the leading cause of death in minority females. Providers must be diligent to aggressively decrease patients' cardiovascular risk and, when patients do present with cardiovascular symptoms, providers must be aggressive in accurately diagnosing and treating these patients to decrease cardiac morbidity and mortality.

Temporal association between hospitalization and rate of falls after discharge.

PubMed

Mahoney, J E; Palta, M; Johnson, J; Jalaluddin, M; Gray, S; Park, S; Sager, M

2000-10-09

Evidence suggests that acute illness and hospitalization may increase the risk for falls. To evaluate the rate of falls, and associated risk factors, for 90 days following hospital discharge. We consecutively enrolled 311 patients, aged 65 years and older, discharged from the hospital after an acute medical illness and receiving home-nursing services. Patients were assessed within 5 days of discharge for prehospital and current functioning by self-report, and balance, vision, cognition, and delirium by objective measures. Patients were followed up weekly for 13 weeks for falls, injuries, and health care use. The rate of falls was significantly higher in the first 2 weeks after hospitalization (8.0 per 1000 person-days) compared with 3 months later (1.7 per 1000 person-days) (P =.002). Fall-related injuries accounted for 15% of all hospitalizations in the first month after discharge. Independent prehospital risk factors significantly associated with falls included dependency in activities of daily living, use of a standard walker, 2 or more falls, and more hospitalizations in the year prior. Posthospital risk factors included use of a tertiary amine tricyclic antidepressant, probable delirium, and poorer balance, while use of a cane was protective. The rate of falls is substantially increased in the first month after medical hospitalization, and is an important cause of injury and morbidity. Posthospital risk factors may be potentially modifiable. Efforts to assess and modify risk factors should be integral to the hospital and posthospital care of older adults (those aged >/=65 years).

Temperament and character modify risk of drug addiction and influence choice of drugs.

PubMed

Milivojevic, Dragan; Milovanovic, Srdjan D; Jovanovic, Minja; Svrakic, Dragan M; Svrakic, Nenad M; Svrakic, Slobodan M; Cloninger, C Robert

2012-01-01

Drug addiction and alcoholism involve a complex etiopathogenesis with a variable degree of risk contributions from the host (person), environment, and addictive substances. In this work, temperament and character features of individuals addicted to opiates or alcohol are compared with normal controls to study personality factors in the overall risk for drug addiction. The study was done in a permissive environment, with easy access to alcohol and heroin, which facilitated analyses of personality factors in drug choice. Participants included 412 consecutive patients (312 opiate addicts, 100 alcohol addicts) treated at the Specialized Hospital for Chemical Dependency in Belgrade, Serbia, and a community sample of 346 controls. Opiate addicts manifested antisocial temperament configuration (high Novelty Seeking, low Reward Dependence) coupled with high Self-transcendence (ie, susceptibility to fantasy and imagination). Alcohol addicts manifested sensitive temperament configuration (high Novelty Seeking coexisting with high Harm Avoidance). Immature personality was observed far more frequently in opiate addicts than in alcoholics or normals. Novelty Seeking appears to be a general risk factor for drug addiction. High Harm Avoidance appears to channel individuals with high Novelty Seeking towards alcoholism. Immature character traits and probable Personality Disorder increase the risk of illegal drugs. Based on equivalent research in nonpermissive environments, at least a portion of our opiate addicts could have developed alcoholism instead in environments with more limited access to opiates. Personality factors provide useful guidelines for preventive work with young individuals with personality risk factors for drug addiction. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

Modifiable Midlife Risk Factors for Late-Life Cognitive Impairment and Dementia

PubMed Central

Hughes, Tiffany F.; Ganguli, Mary

2009-01-01

The baby boom generation is approaching the age of greatest risk for cognitive impairment and dementia. There is growing interest in strategies to modify the environment in midlife to increase the probability of maintaining cognitive health in late life. Several potentially modifiable risk factors have been studied in relation to cognitive impairment and dementia in late life, but methodological limitations of observational research have resulted in some inconsistencies across studies. The most promising strategies are maintaining cardiovascular health, engagement in mental, physical, and social activities, using alcohol in moderation, abstaining from tobacco use, and following a heart-healthy diet. Other factors that may influence cognitive health are occupational attainment, depression, personality, exposure to general anesthesia, head injury, postmenopausal hormone therapy, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medications, and nutritional supplements such as antioxidants. Some long-term observational studies initiated in midlife or earlier, and some randomized controlled trials, have examined the effects of specific cognitive health promotion behaviors in midlife on the risk of cognitive impairment in late life. Overall, these studies provide limited support for risk reduction at this time. Recommendations and challenges for developing effective strategies to reduce the burden of cognitive impairment and dementia in the future are discussed. PMID:19946443

Determination of Radioactive Risks Associated with the Operation of a Nuclear Plant; EVALUATION DES RISQUES RADIOACTIFS LIES AU FONTIONNEMENT D'UNE INSTALLATION NUCLEAIRE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Laie, J.M.; Doury, A.

1960-01-01

Numerous problems which are posed by the evaluation of the radioactive risks linked to the working of a nuclear plant are new problems that have not yet been satisfactorily solved. In these conditions this study must be considered only as a preliminary approach whose essential aims include development and synthesis of the existing data and rapid determination of conservative and usable orders of greatness for the security factors, both for normal working and in the case of an accident. The most probable typical accidents are reviewed together with the nature of the resulting risks and the principal factors on whichmore » these risks depend. Among these factors, one of the most important is atmospheric diffusion, which is studied in some detail using the analytic model by Sutton. A logical graphical presentation is made, increasing ths flexibility in the use of the results and presenting the responsible authorities with a flexible, practical, and rapid means of evaluating the risks involved starting from a sufficiently general system of initial and simultaneously valid conditions (types of accident, atmospheric conditions). (auth)« less

Assessing cadmium exposure risks of vegetables with plant uptake factor and soil property.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Chang, Andrew C; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping; Peng, Chi

2018-07-01

Plant uptake factors (PUFs) are of great importance in human cadmium (Cd) exposure risk assessment while it has been often treated in a generic way. We collected 1077 pairs of vegetable-soil samples from production fields to characterize Cd PUFs and demonstrated their utility in assessing Cd exposure risks to consumers of locally grown vegetables. The Cd PUFs varied with plant species and pH and organic matter content of soils. Once normalized PUFs against soil parameters, the PUFs distributions were log-normal in nature. In this manner, the PUFs were represented by definable probability distributions instead of a deterministic figure. The Cd exposure risks were then assessed using the normalized PUF based on the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm. Factors affecting the extent of Cd exposures were isolated through sensitivity analyses. Normalized PUF would illustrate the outcomes for uncontaminated and slightly contaminated soils. Among the vegetables, lettuce was potentially hazardous for residents due to its high Cd accumulation but low Zn concentration. To protect 95% of the lettuce production from causing excessive Cd exposure risks, pH of soils needed to be 5.9 and above. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fatality risk assessment and modeling of drivers responsibility for causing traffic accidents in Dubai.

PubMed

Abdalla, Ibrahim M

2002-01-01

This paper examines crash and safety statistics from the Emirate of Dubai in an attempt to identify factors responsible for making this population at greater risk of crashes compared to other countries. In developing countries such as the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), motor-vehicle-related mortalities frequently exceed those of the industrialized nations of North America and Europe. Fatality and injury data used in the analysis mainly come from Dubai Emirate police reports and from other relevant international sources. Groups of the population are identified according to associated risk and exposure factors. Influence and strength of the most common risk factors are quantified using relative risk, the Lorenz curve, and the Gini index. Further analysis employed logit modeling, and possible predictors available in Dubai police reports, to estimate probability and odds ratios associated with drivers that are deemed responsible for causing traffic accidents. Traffic fatality risk was found to be higher in Dubai, compared to some developed nations, and to vary considerably between different classes of road users and groups of the resident population. The likelihood of a driver causing an accident is considerably higher for those driving goods vehicles, but it is also associated with other factors. Results provide epidemiological inferences about traffic mortality and morbidity, and suggest priorities and appropriate measures for intervention, targeting resident population.

Corneal inflammatory events with daily silicone hydrogel lens wear.

PubMed

Szczotka-Flynn, Loretta; Jiang, Ying; Raghupathy, Sangeetha; Bielefeld, Roger A; Garvey, Matthew T; Jacobs, Michael R; Kern, Jami; Debanne, Sara M

2014-01-01

This study aimed to determine the probability and risk factors for developing a corneal inflammatory event (CIE) during daily wear of lotrafilcon A silicone hydrogel contact lenses. Eligible participants (n = 218) were fit with lotrafilcon A lenses for daily wear and followed up for 12 months. Participants were randomized to either a polyhexamethylene biguanide-preserved multipurpose solution or a one-step peroxide disinfection system. The main exposures of interest were bacterial contamination of lenses, cases, lid margins, and ocular surface. Kaplan-Meier (KM) plots were used to estimate the cumulative unadjusted probability of remaining free from a CIE, and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model the hazard of experiencing a CIE. The KM unadjusted cumulative probability of remaining free from a CIE for both lens care groups combined was 92.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88.1 to 96.5%). There was one participant with microbial keratitis, five participants with asymptomatic infiltrates, and seven participants with contact lens peripheral ulcers, providing KM survival estimates of 92.8% (95% CI, 88.6 to 96.9%) and 98.1% (95% CI, 95.8 to 100.0%) for remaining free from noninfectious and symptomatic CIEs, respectively. The presence of substantial (>100 colony-forming units) coagulase-negative staphylococci bioburden on lid margins was associated with about a five-fold increased risk for the development of a CIE (p = 0.04). The probability of experiencing a CIE during daily wear of lotrafilcon A contact lenses is low, and symptomatic CIEs are rare. Patient factors, such as high levels of bacterial bioburden on lid margins, contribute to the development of noninfectious CIEs during daily wear of silicone hydrogel lenses.

On "black swans" and "perfect storms": risk analysis and management when statistics are not enough.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, Elisabeth

2012-11-01

Two images, "black swans" and "perfect storms," have struck the public's imagination and are used--at times indiscriminately--to describe the unthinkable or the extremely unlikely. These metaphors have been used as excuses to wait for an accident to happen before taking risk management measures, both in industry and government. These two images represent two distinct types of uncertainties (epistemic and aleatory). Existing statistics are often insufficient to support risk management because the sample may be too small and the system may have changed. Rationality as defined by the von Neumann axioms leads to a combination of both types of uncertainties into a single probability measure--Bayesian probability--and accounts only for risk aversion. Yet, the decisionmaker may also want to be ambiguity averse. This article presents an engineering risk analysis perspective on the problem, using all available information in support of proactive risk management decisions and considering both types of uncertainty. These measures involve monitoring of signals, precursors, and near-misses, as well as reinforcement of the system and a thoughtful response strategy. It also involves careful examination of organizational factors such as the incentive system, which shape human performance and affect the risk of errors. In all cases, including rare events, risk quantification does not allow "prediction" of accidents and catastrophes. Instead, it is meant to support effective risk management rather than simply reacting to the latest events and headlines. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Science-based decision making in a high-risk energy production environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiser, D. A.

2016-12-01

Energy production practices that may induce earthquakes require decisions about acceptable risk before projects begin. How much ground shaking, structural damage, infrastructure damage, or delay of geothermal power and other operations is tolerable? I review a few mitigation strategies as well as existing protocol in several U.S. states. Timely and accurate scientific information can assist in determining the costs and benefits of altering production parameters. These issues can also be addressed with probability estimates of adverse effects ("costs"), frequency of earthquakes of different sizes, and associated impacts of different magnitude earthquakes. When risk management decisions based on robust science are well-communicated to stakeholders, mitigation efforts benefit. Effective communications elements include a) the risks and benefits of different actions (e.g. using a traffic light protocol); b) the factors to consider when determining acceptable risk; and c) the probability of different magnitude events. I present a case example for The Geysers geothermal field in California, to discuss locally "acceptable" and "unacceptable" earthquakes and share nearby communities' responses to smaller and larger magnitude earthquakes. I use the USGS's "Did You Feel It?" data archive to sample how often felt events occur, and how many of those are above acceptable magnitudes (to both local residents and operators). Using this information, I develop a science-based decision-making framework, in the case of potentially risky earthquakes, for lessening seismic risk and other negative consequences. This includes assessing future earthquake probabilities based on past earthquake records. One of my goals is to help characterize uncertainties in a way that they can be managed; to this end, I present simple and accessible approaches that can be used in the decision making process.

Predicting the probability of mortality of gastric cancer patients using decision tree.

PubMed

Mohammadzadeh, F; Noorkojuri, H; Pourhoseingholi, M A; Saadat, S; Baghestani, A R

2015-06-01

Gastric cancer is the fourth most common cancer worldwide. This reason motivated us to investigate and introduce gastric cancer risk factors utilizing statistical methods. The aim of this study was to identify the most important factors influencing the mortality of patients who suffer from gastric cancer disease and to introduce a classification approach according to decision tree model for predicting the probability of mortality from this disease. Data on 216 patients with gastric cancer, who were registered in Taleghani hospital in Tehran,Iran, were analyzed. At first, patients were divided into two groups: the dead and alive. Then, to fit decision tree model to our data, we randomly selected 20% of dataset to the test sample and remaining dataset considered as the training sample. Finally, the validity of the model examined with sensitivity, specificity, diagnosis accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The CART version 6.0 and SPSS version 19.0 softwares were used for the analysis of the data. Diabetes, ethnicity, tobacco, tumor size, surgery, pathologic stage, age at diagnosis, exposure to chemical weapons and alcohol consumption were determined as effective factors on mortality of gastric cancer. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of decision tree were 0.72, 0.75 and 0.74 respectively. The indices of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy represented that the decision tree model has acceptable accuracy to prediction the probability of mortality in gastric cancer patients. So a simple decision tree consisted of factors affecting on mortality of gastric cancer may help clinicians as a reliable and practical tool to predict the probability of mortality in these patients.

Is twin pregnancy a risk factor for devolopmental dysplasia of the hip - retrospective analysis using ultrasonography.

PubMed

Czubak, Jarosław; Mazela, Jan L; Majda, Waldemar; Woźniak, Waldemar

2003-12-30

Background. Disorders in development of the hip in the uterus are caused mainly by mechanical factors. Their influence has been established on the basis of the results of examinations of newborns from singleton pregancies. Malposition of the fetus and the lack of space in the uterus are present in higher frequency in twin pregnancies. Thus, it is probable, that twin pregnacy may be a risk factor in developmental dysplasia of the hip.
Material and methods. We examined clinically and ultrasonographically 308 hip joints of 154 newborn twins and compare the values of the alpha related to different position in uterus, birthweight, gender, length of gestation and mode of delivery. The only pathological position of the fetus in the uterus is the tranverse one.
Results and Conclusions. The results of ultrasound examinations reveal that in the cramped space inside the uterus in twin pregnancies hip joints develop in different conditions than in singleton pregnancies and the twin pregnancy cannot be regarded as a risk factor which may cause developmental dysplasia of the hip.

Risk Preferences, Probability Weighting, and Strategy Tradeoffs in Wildfire Management.

PubMed

Hand, Michael S; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Calkin, David E; Thompson, Matthew P

2015-10-01

Wildfires present a complex applied risk management environment, but relatively little attention has been paid to behavioral and cognitive responses to risk among public agency wildfire managers. This study investigates responses to risk, including probability weighting and risk aversion, in a wildfire management context using a survey-based experiment administered to federal wildfire managers. Respondents were presented with a multiattribute lottery-choice experiment where each lottery is defined by three outcome attributes: expenditures for fire suppression, damage to private property, and exposure of firefighters to the risk of aviation-related fatalities. Respondents choose one of two strategies, each of which includes "good" (low cost/low damage) and "bad" (high cost/high damage) outcomes that occur with varying probabilities. The choice task also incorporates an information framing experiment to test whether information about fatality risk to firefighters alters managers' responses to risk. Results suggest that managers exhibit risk aversion and nonlinear probability weighting, which can result in choices that do not minimize expected expenditures, property damage, or firefighter exposure. Information framing tends to result in choices that reduce the risk of aviation fatalities, but exacerbates nonlinear probability weighting. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Associations between presence of relevant information in referrals to radiology and prevalence rates in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism.

PubMed

Hedner, Charlotta; Sundgren, Pia C; Kelly, Aine Marie

2013-09-01

The purpose of this study was to assess if the presence of information including the pretest probability (Wells score), other known risk factors, and symptoms given on referrals for computed tomography (CT) pulmonary angiography correlated with prevalence rates for pulmonary embolism (PE). Also, to evaluate for differences between a university and a regional hospital setting regarding patient characteristics, amount of relevant information provided on referrals, and prevalence rates for pulmonary embolism. Retrospective review of all consecutive referrals (emergency room, inpatient, and outpatient) for CT performed on children and adults for suspected PE from two sites: a tertiary (university) hospital (site 1) and a secondary (regional) hospital (site 2) over a 5-year period. The overall prevalence rate was 510/3641 or 14% of all referrals. Significantly higher number of males had a positive CT compared to women (18% versus 12%, P < .001). Although no statistically significant relationship between a greater amount of relevant information on the referral and the probability for positive finding existed, a slight trend was noted (P = .09). In two categories, "hypoxia" and "signs of deep vein thrombosis," the presence of this information conferred a higher probability for pulmonary embolism, P < .001. In the categories, "chest pain," "malaise," and "smoker/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease", the absence of information conferred a higher probability for pulmonary embolism. The amount of relevant clinical information on the request did not correlate with prevalence rates, which may reflect a lack of documentation on the part of emergency physicians who may use a "gestalt" approach. Request forms likely did not capture all relevant patient risks and many factors may interact with each other, both positively and negatively. Pretest probability estimations were rarely performed, despite their inclusion in major society guidelines. Copyright © 2013 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychological Factors Linked to Risk Perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaş, I.; Creãu, R. Z.; Stǎnciugelu, I.

2012-04-01

Risks are mental models, which allow people to cope with dangerous phenomena (Renn, 2008; Jasanoff, 1998). The term "risk" refers to the likelihood of an adverse effect resulting from an event. The aim of the present study is to identify the psychological factors that are most predictive of risk perception in relation with age, gender, educational level and socio-economical status. Earthquake hazard was considered, because it is an emerging danger for Bucharest. 80% of the laypeople sample are waiting for this event to happen in the next three years. By integrating all the research data, it was attempted to build a risk profile of the investigated population, which could be used by institutions responsible for earthquake risk mitigation situations in Bucharest. This research appealed to the social learning Rotter (1966), auto-effectiveness Bandura (1977; 1983), and anxiety and stress theories. We used psychological variables that measured stress, personal effectiveness and the belief in personal control. The multi-modal risk perception questionnaire was structured on a 49 items sequence. The sample was composed of 1.376 participants recruited on a voluntary basis. The characteristics of risk (like probability and magnitude, time scales) are perceived differently according to psychological factors that play a role also in biases in people's ability to draw inferences from probabilistic information (like cognitive dissonance). Since the 1970's, it has been argued that those who perceive life's events as being beyond their locus of control (external locus of control) are significantly more anxious and less adapted. In this research, strongest associations and significant differences were obtained between sex, age and income categories with Stress vulnerability factor and the External Locus of Control factor. The profile of the low risk perceiver is that of a young, more educated, male individual with a higher self- efficacy level and an internal locus of control.

Risk of Mortality after Spinal Cord Injury: An 8-year Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Krause, James S.; Zhai, Yusheng; Saunders, Lee L.; Carter, Rickey E.

2011-01-01

Objective To evaluate a theoretical model for mortality after spinal cord injury (SCI) by sequentially analyzing 4 sets of risk factors in relation to mortality (i.e., adding 1 set of factors to the regression equation at a time). Design Prospective cohort study of data collected in late 1997 and early 1998 with mortality status ascertained in December 2005. We evaluated the significance of 4 successive sets of predictors (biographic and injury, psychologic and environmental, behavioral, health and secondary conditions) using Cox proportional hazards modeling and built a full model based on the optimal predictors. Setting A specialty hospital. Participants 1,386 adults with traumatic SCI, at least 1 year post-injury, participated. There were 224 deaths. After eliminating cases with missing data, there were 1,209 participants, with 179 deceased at follow-up. Interventions N/A. Main Outcome Measures Mortality status was determined using the National Death Index and the Social Security Death Index. Results The final model included one environmental variable (poverty), 2 behavioral factors (prescription medication use, binge drinking), and 4 health factors or secondary conditions (hospitalizations, fractures/amputations, surgeries for pressure ulcers, probable major depression). Conclusions The results supported the major premise of the theoretical model that risk factors are more important the more proximal they are in a theoretical chain of events leading to mortality. According to this model, mortality results from declining health, precipitated by high-risk behaviors. These findings may be used to target individuals who are at high risk for early mortality as well as directing interventions to the particular risk factor. PMID:19801060

The predictive efficiency of school bullying versus later offending: a systematic/meta-analytic review of longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Ttofi, Maria M; Farrington, David P; Lösel, Friedrich; Loeber, Rolf

2011-04-01

Although bullying and delinquency share similar risk factors, no previous systematic review has ever been conducted to examine possible links between school bullying and criminal offending later in life. To investigate the extent to which bullying perpetration at school predicts offending later in life, and whether this relation holds after controlling for other major childhood risk factors. Results are based on a thorough systematic review and meta-analysis of studies measuring school bullying and later offending. Effect sizes are based on both published and unpublished studies; longitudinal investigators of 28 studies have conducted specific analyses for our review. The probability of offending up to 11 years later was much higher for school bullies than for non-involved students [odds ratio (OR) = 2.50; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.03-3.08]. Bullying perpetration was a significant risk factor for later offending, even after controlling for major childhood risk factors (OR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.55-2.14). Effect sizes were smaller when the follow-up period was longer and larger when bullying was assessed in older children. The age of participants when outcome measures were taken was negatively related with effect sizes. Finally, the summary effect size did not decrease much as the number of controlled risk factors increased. School bullying is a strong and specific risk factor for later offending. Effective anti-bullying programmes should be promoted, and could be viewed as a form of early crime prevention. Such programmes would have a high benefit : cost ratio. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift for recurrent anterior shoulder instability: functional outcomes and identification of risk factors for recurrence.

PubMed

Ahmed, Issaq; Ashton, Fiona; Robinson, Christopher Michael

2012-07-18

Arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift is a well-established technique for the treatment of anterior shoulder instability. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcomes following arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift and to identify risk factors that are predictive of recurrence of glenohumeral instability. We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected database consisting of 302 patients who had undergone arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift for the treatment of recurrent anterior glenohumeral instability. The prevalence of patient and injury-related risk factors for recurrence was assessed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the predicted probability of recurrence within two years. The chief outcome measures were the risk of recurrence and the two-year functional outcomes assessed with the Western Ontario shoulder instability index (WOSI) and disabilities of the arm, shoulder and hand (DASH) scores. The rate of recurrent glenohumeral instability after arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift was 13.2%. The median time to recurrence was twelve months, and this complication developed within one year in 55% of these patients. The risk of recurrence was independently predicted by the patient's age at surgery, the severity of glenoid bone loss, and the presence of an engaging Hill-Sachs lesion (all p < 0.001). These variables were incorporated into a model to provide an estimate of the risk of recurrence after surgery. Varying the cutoff level for the predicted probability of recurrence in the model from 50% to lower values increased the sensitivity of the model to detect recurrences but decreased the positive predictive value of the model to correctly predict failed repairs. There was a significant improvement in the mean WOSI and DASH scores at two years postoperatively (both p < 0.001), but the mean scores in the group with recurrence were significantly lower than those in the group without recurrence (both p < 0.001). Our study identified factors that are independently associated with a higher risk of recurrence following arthroscopic Bankart repair and capsular shift. These data can be useful for counseling patients undergoing this procedure for the treatment of recurrent glenohumeral instability and individualizing treatment options for particular groups of patients. Prognostic level I. See Instructions for authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

[Traveler's thrombosis].

PubMed

Riedel, M; Bohanes, V

2002-08-01

It is pathophysiologically conceivable that prolonged sitting in a tight space (e.g., in airplane or other transport vehicle) may lead to leg vein thrombosis. The association between the incidence of venous thromboembolism and long travel has not been sufficiently documented but seems probable. However, this association is only weak and the incidence of symptomatic thromboembolism much lower than the impression given by the recent publicity. In a healthy person, the risk of suffering a clinically relevant leg vein thrombosis solely because of a flight is extreme low. In persons with risk factors for venous thromboembolism, the flight represents an additional, as yet not quantifiable risk. This risk increases with the duration of the travel. The most important cause of thrombosis during long journeys seems to be venostasis due to relative immobilization. It is not clear whether flight travel represents a higher risk of thrombosis compared to other transport vehicles with comparable duration and immobilization. Until more exact information becomes available, it seems reasonable to recommend simple isometric and isotonic leg exercises during long travel. More aggressive measures must be considered for persons with risk factors for thromboembolism, but these measures should be individualized.

High Prevalence of Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms in Relation to Social Factors in Affected Population One Year after the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster.

PubMed

Tsujiuchi, Takuya; Yamaguchi, Maya; Masuda, Kazutaka; Tsuchida, Marisa; Inomata, Tadashi; Kumano, Hiroaki; Kikuchi, Yasushi; Augusterfer, Eugene F; Mollica, Richard F

2016-01-01

This study investigated post-traumatic stress symptoms in relation to the population affected by the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster, one year after the disaster. Additionally, we investigated social factors, such as forced displacement, which we hypothesize contributed to the high prevalence of post-traumatic stress. Finally, we report of written narratives that were collected from the impacted population. Using the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), questionnaires were sent to 2,011 households of those displaced from Fukushima prefecture living temporarily in Saitama prefecture. Of the 490 replies; 350 met the criteria for inclusion in the study. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to examine several characteristics and variables of social factors as predictors of probable post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD. The mean score of IES-R was 36.15±21.55, with 59.4% having scores of 30 or higher, thus indicating a probable PTSD. No significant differences in percentages of high-risk subjects were found among sex, age, evacuation area, housing damages, tsunami affected, family split-up, and acquaintance support. By the result of multiple logistic regression analysis, the significant predictors of probable PTSD were chronic physical diseases (OR = 1.97), chronic mental diseases (OR = 6.25), worries about livelihood (OR = 2.27), lost jobs (OR = 1.71), lost social ties (OR = 2.27), and concerns about compensation (OR = 3.74). Although there are limitations in assuming a diagnosis of PTSD based on self-report IES-R, our findings indicate that there was a high-risk of PTSD strongly related to the nuclear disaster and its consequent evacuation and displacement. Therefore, recovery efforts must focus not only on medical and psychological treatment alone, but also on social and economic issues related to the displacement, as well.

What Are the Risk Factors for Dislocation of Hip Bipolar Hemiarthroplasty Through the Anterolateral Approach? A Nested Case-control Study.

PubMed

Li, Lianhua; Ren, Jixin; Liu, Jia; Wang, Hao; Sang, Qinghua; Liu, Zhi; Sun, Tiansheng

2016-12-01

Hip dislocation after treatment of a femoral neck fracture with a hemiarthroplasty remains an important problem in the treatment of hip fractures, but the associations between patient factors and surgical factors, and how these factors contribute to dislocation in patients who have undergone bipolar hemiarthroplasty through an anterolateral approach for femoral neck fracture currently are only poorly characterized. We evaluated patients with bipolar hemiarthroplasty dislocation after surgery for femoral neck fracture treated through an anterolateral approach and asked: (1) What are the frequency, characteristics, and risk factors of bipolar hemiarthroplasty dislocations? (2) What are the frequency, characteristics, and risk factors of bipolar hemiarthroplasty dissociations? A review of hospital records for patients who underwent bipolar hip hemiarthroplasty for femoral neck fracture at one hospital between July 2004 and August 2014 was conducted. During that time, 1428 patients were admitted with a diagnosis of femoral neck fracture; 508 of these patients underwent bipolar hip hemiarthroplasty, of whom 61 died and 23 were lost to followup during the first year, leaving 424 (83%) available for analysis. The remainder of the patients during that time were treated with internal fixation (512), unipoloar hip arthroplasty (17), or THA (391). For each patient with dislocation, we selected five control patients from the cohort according to sex, age (± 3 years), and year of entry in the study to eliminate some confounding factors. We recorded patient characteristics regarding demographics, medical comorbidities, Katz score, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score, and anesthesia type. Medical comorbidities included diabetes, chronic pulmonary disease, heart disease, neuromuscular diseases, and dementia. Univariate analyses were used to search for possible risk factors. Conditional logistic regression analyses on dislocation or dissociation were performed to estimate hazard rates (HRs) and corresponding 95% CIs with covariates of a probability less than 0.1 in univariate analysis. In this cohort, there were 26 dislocations including four that were also dissociations. The proportion of patients experiencing a dislocation was 6% (26 of 424). The mean interval from surgery to dislocation was 56 weeks (range, 0-433 weeks), and 18 dislocations (69%) occurred within 3 months after surgery. Three variables were independently associated with an increased risk of hip dislocation: dementia (HR, 3.51; 95% CI, 1.19-10.38; p = 0.02), discrepancy of offset (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.15-2.58; p = 0.008), and lower MMSE score (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.98; p = 0.007). The proportion of patients experiencing a dissociation was 0.9% (four of 424). The result of conditional logistic regression for dissociation showed that cup size smaller than 43 mm was the risk factor (HR = 513.05). However, there was no statistical difference with the probability equaling 0.47. After the anterolateral approach for treatment of femoral neck fracture using bipolar hemiarthroplasty, 6% of hips dislocated and 0.9% experienced dissociation. Cognitive dysfunction and discrepancy of offset were independent risk factors associated with an increased risk of prosthetic dislocation. The small cup without a safety ring may be the risk factor of dissociation. Discrepancy of offset should be avoided during the operation by performing an accurate femoral osteotomy and choosing an adequate femoral stem neck length. For patients with cognitive dysfunction and a small cup, suturing the joint capsule during the operation and reinforcing protective measures after surgery might reduce the occurrence of dislocation and dissociation, however a study addressing this is necessary to confirm this. Level III, therapeutic study.

Complement factor H-related proteins in IgA nephropathy-sometimes a gentle nudge does the trick.

PubMed

Thurman, Joshua M; Laskowski, Jennifer

2017-10-01

Complement activation probably contributes to glomerular inflammation and damage in IgA nephropathy. In this issue, 2 groups report that levels of factor H-related protein 1 are elevated in patients with IgA nephropathy and correlate with disease progression. These studies provide new evidence that the complement cascade is important to the pathogenesis of this disease. These results also suggest that factor H-related protein 1 levels may be useful for identifying those patients at high risk of disease progression. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Threatened species and the potential loss of phylogenetic diversity: conservation scenarios based on estimated extinction probabilities and phylogenetic risk analysis.

PubMed

Faith, Daniel P

2008-12-01

New species conservation strategies, including the EDGE of Existence (EDGE) program, have expanded threatened species assessments by integrating information about species' phylogenetic distinctiveness. Distinctiveness has been measured through simple scores that assign shared credit among species for evolutionary heritage represented by the deeper phylogenetic branches. A species with a high score combined with a high extinction probability receives high priority for conservation efforts. Simple hypothetical scenarios for phylogenetic trees and extinction probabilities demonstrate how such scoring approaches can provide inefficient priorities for conservation. An existing probabilistic framework derived from the phylogenetic diversity measure (PD) properly captures the idea of shared responsibility for the persistence of evolutionary history. It avoids static scores, takes into account the status of close relatives through their extinction probabilities, and allows for the necessary updating of priorities in light of changes in species threat status. A hypothetical phylogenetic tree illustrates how changes in extinction probabilities of one or more species translate into changes in expected PD. The probabilistic PD framework provided a range of strategies that moved beyond expected PD to better consider worst-case PD losses. In another example, risk aversion gave higher priority to a conservation program that provided a smaller, but less risky, gain in expected PD. The EDGE program could continue to promote a list of top species conservation priorities through application of probabilistic PD and simple estimates of current extinction probability. The list might be a dynamic one, with all the priority scores updated as extinction probabilities change. Results of recent studies suggest that estimation of extinction probabilities derived from the red list criteria linked to changes in species range sizes may provide estimated probabilities for many different species. Probabilistic PD provides a framework for single-species assessment that is well-integrated with a broader measurement of impacts on PD owing to climate change and other factors.

Sex and HIV serostatus differences in decision making under risk among substance-dependent individuals.

PubMed

Martin, Eileen; Gonzalez, Raul; Vassileva, Jasmin; Maki, Pauline M; Bechara, Antoine; Brand, Matthias

2016-01-01

HIV+ individuals with and without substance use disorders make significantly poorer decisions when information about the probability and magnitude of wins and losses is not available. We administered the Game of Dice Task, a measure of decision making under risk that provides this information explicitly, to 92 HIV+ and 134 HIV- substance-dependent men and women. HIV+ participants made significantly poorer decisions than HIV- participants, but this deficit appeared more prominent among HIV+ women. These data indicate that decision making under risk is impaired among HIV+ substance-dependent individuals (SDIs). Potential factors for the HIV+ women's relatively greater impairment are discussed.

Nutritional status and eating disorders: neglected risks factor for nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease?

PubMed

Portillo, Karina; Morera, Josep

2012-01-01

Nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease (NTMLD) in immunocompetent patients is an increasingly important epidemiologic concern. However, risk factors associated with susceptibility to NTMLD are not completely known. A prevalence of NTMLD appears to be rising, mainly in some populations such as middle-aged or elderly thin women, (a group including those with Lady Windermere syndrome) with neither remarkable history of respiratory disease nor smoking habit. Right middle lobe (RML) and lingula are often involved. Various predisposing factors and genetic defects have been described as possible causes of development of NTMLD, namely: voluntary suppression of cough, RML anatomical factors, menopause and mutations in cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR). Malnutrition is also an important and common risk factor associated with other mycobacterial disease like tuberculosis (TB) and its probable association with NTMLD as have been pointed out for some authors. However, a real description of all nutritional aspects and eating habits of patients prior to NTMLD diagnosis is lacking. We hypothesized that malnutrition and eating disorders like anorexia nervosa could be risk factors that may promoting NTMLD. From a clinical viewpoint, if this hypothesis proves to be correct, eating habits and nutritional aspects should be taken into account in the diagnosis process of suspected NTMLD, since they are easily identifiable and treatable conditions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relevance of the early history of probability theory to current risk assessment practices in mental health care.

PubMed

Large, Matthew

2013-12-01

Probability theory is at the base of modern concepts of risk assessment in mental health. The aim of the current paper is to review the key developments in the early history of probability theory in order to enrich our understanding of current risk assessment practices.

Clinical Features and Gaps in the Management of Probable Familial Hypercholesterolemia and Cardiovascular Disease.

PubMed

Zafrir, Barak; Jubran, Ayman; Lavie, Gil; Halon, David A; Flugelman, Moshe Y; Shapira, Chen

2017-12-25

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is associated with premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The introduction of potent therapeutic agents underlies the importance of improving clinical diagnosis and treatment gaps in FH.Methods and Results:A regional database of 1,690 adult patients with high-probability FH based on age-dependent peak-low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) cut-offs and exclusion of secondary causes of severe hypercholesterolemia, was examined to explore the clinical manifestations and current needs in the management of ASCVD, which was present in 248 patients (15%), of whom 83% had coronary artery disease (CAD); 19%, stroke; and 13%, peripheral artery disease. ASCVD was associated with male gender, higher peak LDL-C, lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and traditional risk factor burden. Despite high-intensity statin (prescribed in 83% and combined with ezetimibe in 42%), attainment of LDL-C treatment goals was low, and associated with treatment intensity and drug adherence. Multivessel CAD (adjusted hazard ratios (HR), 3.05; 95% CI: 1.65-5.64), myocardial infarction, and the presence of ≥1 traditional risk factor (HR, 2.59; 95% CI: 1.42-4.71), were associated with repeat coronary revascularizations, in contrast with peak LDL-C >300 mg/dL (HR, 1.13; 95% CI: 0.66-1.91). Main manifestations of ASCVD in FH patients were premature, multivessel CAD with need for recurrent revascularization, associated with classical cardiovascular risk factors but not with peak LDL-C. In spite of intensive therapy with lipid-lowering agents, treatment gaps were significant, with low attainment of LDL-C treatment goals.

Communicating about risk: strategies for situations where public concern is high but the risk is low.

PubMed

Hooker, Claire; Capon, Adam; Leask, Julie

2017-01-15

In this article, we summarise research that identifies best practice for communicating about hazards where the risk is low but public concern is high. We apply Peter Sandman's 'risk = hazard + outrage' formulation to these risks, and review factors associated with the amplification of risk signals. We discuss the structures that determine the success of risk communication strategies, such as the capacity for early communication to 'capture' the dominant representation of risk issues, the importance of communicating uncertainty, and the usefulness of engaging with communities. We argue that, when facing trade-offs in probable outcomes from communication, it is always best to choose strategies that maintain or build trust, even at the cost of initial overreactions. We discuss these features of successful risk communication in relation to a range of specific examples, particularly opposition to community water fluoridation, Ebola, and routine childhood immunisation.

Head multidetector computed tomography: emergency medicine physicians overestimate the pretest probability and legal risk of significant findings.

PubMed

Baskerville, Jerry Ray; Herrick, John

2012-02-01

This study focuses on clinically assigned prospective estimated pretest probability and pretest perception of legal risk as independent variables in the ordering of multidetector computed tomographic (MDCT) head scans. Our primary aim is to measure the association between pretest probability of a significant finding and pretest perception of legal risk. Secondarily, we measure the percentage of MDCT scans that physicians would not order if there was no legal risk. This study is a prospective, cross-sectional, descriptive analysis of patients 18 years and older for whom emergency medicine physicians ordered a head MDCT. We collected a sample of 138 patients subjected to head MDCT scans. The prevalence of a significant finding in our population was 6%, yet the pretest probability expectation of a significant finding was 33%. The legal risk presumed was even more dramatic at 54%. These data support the hypothesis that physicians presume the legal risk to be significantly higher than the risk of a significant finding. A total of 21% or 15% patients (95% confidence interval, ±5.9%) would not have been subjected to MDCT if there was no legal risk. Physicians overestimated the probability that the computed tomographic scan would yield a significant result and indicated an even greater perceived medicolegal risk if the scan was not obtained. Physician test-ordering behavior is complex, and our study queries pertinent aspects of MDCT testing. The magnification of legal risk vs the pretest probability of a significant finding is demonstrated. Physicians significantly overestimated pretest probability of a significant finding on head MDCT scans and presumed legal risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Suicide Risk in the Hospitalized Elderly in Turkey and Affecting Factors.

PubMed

Avci, Dilek; Selcuk, Kevser Tari; Dogan, Selma

2017-02-01

This study aimed to investigate the suicide risk among the elderly hospitalized and treated because of physical illnesses, and the factors affecting the risk. The study has a cross-sectional design. It was conducted with 459 elderly people hospitalized and treated in a public hospital between May 25, 2015 and December 4, 2015. Data were collected with the Personal Information Form, Suicide Probability Scale and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. For the analysis, descriptive statistics, the chi-square test, Fisher's exact test and logistic regression analysis were used. In the study, 24.0% of the elderly were at high risk for suicide. Suicide risk was even higher among the elderly in the 60-74 age group, living alone, drinking alcohol, perceiving his/her religious beliefs as weak, being treated for cancer, having the diagnosis 11 years or over, having a history of admission to a psychiatry clinic, and being at risk for anxiety and depression. In the study, approximately one out of every four elderly people was at high risk for suicide. Therefore, older people should be assessed for suicide risk and programs targeting to prevent the elderly from committing suicide should be organized. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Occupational exposure to carcinogens: Benzene, pesticides and fibers (Review).

PubMed

Falzone, Luca; Marconi, Andrea; Loreto, Carla; Franco, Sabrina; Spandidos, Demetrios A; Libra, Massimo

2016-11-01

It is well known that the occupational exposure to contaminants and carcinogens leads to the development of cancer in exposed workers. In the 18th century, Percivall Pott was the first to hypothesize that chronic exposure to dust in the London chimney sweeps was associated with an increased risk of developing cancer. Subsequently a growing body of evidence indicated that other physical factors were also responsible for oncogenic mutations. Over the past decades, many carcinogens have been found in the occupational environment and their presence is often associated with an increased incidence of cancer. Occupational exposure involves several factors and the association between carcinogens, occupational exposure and cancer is still unclear. Only a fraction of factors is recognized as occupational carcinogens and for each factor, there is an increased risk of cancer development associated with a specific work activity. According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the majority of carcinogens are classified as 'probable' and 'possible' human carcinogens, while, direct evidence of carcinogenicity is provided in epidemiological and experimental studies. In the present review, exposures to benzene, pesticides and mineral fibers are discussed as the most important cancer risk factors during work activities.

Trait mindfulness, reasons for living and general symptom severity as predictors of suicide probability in males with substance abuse or dependence.

PubMed

Mohammadkhani, Parvaneh; Khanipour, Hamid; Azadmehr, Hedieh; Mobramm, Ardeshir; Naseri, Esmaeil

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate suicide probability in Iranian males with substance abuse or dependence disorder and to investigate the predictors of suicide probability based on trait mindfulness, reasons for living and severity of general psychiatric symptoms. Participants were 324 individuals with substance abuse or dependence in an outpatient setting and prison. Reasons for living questionnaire, Mindfulness Attention Awareness Scale and Suicide probability Scale were used as instruments. Sample was selected based on convenience sampling method. Data were analyzed using SPSS and AMOS. The life-time prevalence of suicide attempt in the outpatient setting was35% and it was 42% in the prison setting. Suicide probability in the prison setting was significantly higher than in the outpatient setting (p<0.001). The severity of general symptom strongly correlated with suicide probability. Trait mindfulness, not reasons for living beliefs, had a mediating effect in the relationship between the severity of general symptoms and suicide probability. Fear of social disapproval, survival and coping beliefs and child-related concerns significantly predicted suicide probability (p<0.001). It could be suggested that trait mindfulness was more effective in preventing suicide probability than beliefs about reasons for living in individuals with substance abuse or dependence disorders. The severity of general symptom should be regarded as an important risk factor of suicide probability.

The development of a simulation model of primary prevention strategies for coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Babad, Hannah; Sanderson, Colin; Naidoo, Bhash; White, Ian; Wang, Duolao

2002-11-01

This paper describes the present state of development of a discrete-event micro-simulation model for coronary heart disease prevention. The model is intended to support health policy makers in assessing the impacts on health care resources of different primary prevention strategies. For each person, a set of times to disease events, conditional on the individual's risk factor profile, is sampled from a set of probability distributions that are derived from a new analysis of the Framingham cohort study on coronary heart disease. Methods used to model changes in behavioural and physiological risk factors are discussed and a description of the simulation logic is given. The model incorporates POST (Patient Oriented Simulation Technique) simulation routines.

Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Precipitation and Storm Tide in a Coastal City under Changing Environment

PubMed Central

Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

2014-01-01

Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt’s tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment. PMID:25310006

Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

PubMed

Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

2014-01-01

Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

2004-01-01

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits.

Prevalence, Trajectories, and Risk Factors for Depression among Caregivers of Young Children Involved in Child Maltreatment Investigations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casanueva, Cecilia; Cross, Theodore P.; Ringeisen, Heather; Christ, Sharon L.

2011-01-01

This study examines depression among caregivers of young children involved in investigations of child maltreatment, in terms of 12-month prevalence of depression across 5 to 6 years. Data were from the "National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being," a national probability study of 5,501 children investigated for maltreatment. The study…

Teachers' Views on Risk Factors for Problematic School Absenteeism in Swedish Primary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gren-Landell, Malin; Ekerfelt Allvin, Cornelia; Bradley, Maria; Andersson, Maria; Andersson, Gerhard

2015-01-01

In the present online survey, 158 teachers in regular and special education teaching in grades six to nine were asked to rate the importance of probable reasons for problematic school absenteeism. On average, the teachers estimated that among their students, 19 students had presented with problematic school absenteeism over the last five years.…

HOW to Recognize and Reduce Tree Hazards in Recreation Sites

Treesearch

Kathyn Robbins

1986-01-01

An understanding of the many factors affecting tree hazards in recreation sites will help predict which trees are most likely to fail. Hazard tree management deals with probabilities of failure. This guide, written for anyone involved in management or maintenance of public use areas that contain trees, is intended to help minimize the risk associated with hazard trees...

Genetics of OCD

PubMed Central

Nestadt, Gerald; Grados, Marco; Samuels, J F

2009-01-01

Synopsis OCD is a common debilitating condition affecting individuals from childhood through adult life. There is good evidence of genetic contribution to its etiology, but environmental risk factors also are likely to be involved. The condition probably has a complex pattern of inheritance. Molecular studies have identified several potentially relevant genes, but much additional research is needed to establish definitive causes of the condition. PMID:20159344

Relationship between Adolescent Risk Preferences on a Laboratory Task and Behavioral Measures of Risk-taking

PubMed Central

Rao, Uma; Sidhartha, Tanuj; Harker, Karen R.; Bidesi, Anup S.; Chen, Li-Ann; Ernst, Monique

2010-01-01

Purpose The goal of the study was to assess individual differences in risk-taking behavior among adolescents in the laboratory. A second aim was to evaluate whether the laboratory-based risk-taking behavior is associated with other behavioral and psychological measures associated with risk-taking behavior. Methods Eighty-two adolescents with no personal history of psychiatric disorder completed a computerized decision-making task, the Wheel of Fortune (WOF). By offering choices between clearly defined probabilities and real monetary outcomes, this task assesses risk preferences when participants are confronted with potential rewards and losses. The participants also completed a variety of behavioral and psychological measures associated with risk-taking behavior. Results Performance on the task varied based on the probability and anticipated outcomes. In the winning sub-task, participants selected low probability-high magnitude reward (high-risk choice) less frequently than high probability-low magnitude reward (low-risk choice). In the losing sub-task, participants selected low probability-high magnitude loss more often than high probability-low magnitude loss. On average, the selection of probabilistic rewards was optimal and similar to performance in adults. There were, however, individual differences in performance, and one-third of the adolescents made high-risk choice more frequently than low-risk choice while selecting a reward. After controlling for sociodemographic and psychological variables, high-risk choice on the winning task predicted “real-world” risk-taking behavior and substance-related problems. Conclusions These findings highlight individual differences in risk-taking behavior. Preliminary data on face validity of the WOF task suggest that it might be a valuable laboratory tool for studying behavioral and neurobiological processes associated with risk-taking behavior in adolescents. PMID:21257113

Approach to patients with pulmonary embolism in a surgical intensive care unit.

PubMed

Grigorakos, Leonidas; Sotiriou, Evangelia; Myrianthefs, P; Michail, Anastasia; Koulendi, Despina; Zidianakis, Vasilis; Gianakopoulos, K; Baltopoulos, G

2008-01-01

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a potentially life threatening disease. Clinical signs and symptoms allow the clinician to determine the pretest probability of someone having pulmonary embolism but are insufficient to diagnose or rule out the condition. This paper aims to study the clinical presentation, identify the risk factors and evaluate the diagnostic strategies and management of patients with PE. The medical files of 69 patients were searched, who were diagnosed with PE and who were admitted to the Surgical Care Unit. Dyspnea, pleuritic pain, haemoptysis, fever and cough were the most common presenting symptoms. Risk factors for PE were found in 90% of cases. D-dimers assay was elevated in all cases (100%) and the other diagnostic strategies used showed great accuracy in confirming the pretest probabilities of PE. It is of high importance that 75% of the patients had deep vein thrombosis as assessed by venous ultrasonography. Mortality due to PE was approximately 6.9%. PE can be often overlooked with hazardous consequences. Clinical evaluation in combination with spiral CT or lung scintigraphy and vein ultrasound and D-dimer level can establish the diagnosis in the majority of patients so that effective treatment to be started as soon as possible.

Estimating the risk for conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease in an elderly Arab community.

PubMed

Inzelberg, Rivka; Massarwa, Magda; Schechtman, Edna; Strugatsky, Rosa; Farrer, Lindsay A; Friedland, Robert P

2015-01-01

Vascular risk factors and lack of formal education may increase the risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). To determine the contribution of vascular risk factors and education to the risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and AD and to estimate the risk for conversion from MCI to AD. This door-to-door survey was performed by an Arab-speaking team in Wadi Ara villages in Israel. All consenting residents aged ≥ 65 years were interviewed for medical history and underwent neurological and cognitive examinations. Individuals were cognitively classified as normal (CN), MCI, AD, vascular dementia, or unclassifiable. MCI patients were re-examined at least one year later to determine conversion to AD. The contributions of age, gender, school years, and vascular risk factors to the probability of conversion were estimated using logistic regression models. Of the 906 participants, 297 (33%) had MCI and 95 (10%) had AD. Older age (p = 0.0008), female gender (p = 0.023), low schooling (p < 0.0001), and hypertension (p = 0.0002) significantly accounted for risk of MCI versus CN, and diabetes was borderline (p = 0.051). The risk of AD versus CN was significantly associated with age (p < 0.0001), female gender (p < 0.0001), low schooling (p = 0.004) and hypertension (p = 0.049). Of the 231 subjects with MCI that were re-examined, 65 converted to AD. In this population, age, female gender, lack of formal education, and hypertension are risk factors for both AD and MCI. Conversion risk from MCI to AD could be estimated as a function of age, time interval between examinations, and hypertension.

Injuries in Runners; A Systematic Review on Risk Factors and Sex Differences

PubMed Central

van der Worp, Maarten P.; ten Haaf, Dominique S. M.; van Cingel, Robert; de Wijer, Anton; Nijhuis-van der Sanden, Maria W. G.; Staal, J. Bart

2015-01-01

Background The popularity of running continues to increase, which means that the incidence of running-related injuries will probably also continue to increase. Little is known about risk factors for running injuries and whether they are sex-specific. Objectives The aim of this study was to review information about risk factors and sex-specific differences for running-induced injuries in adults. Search Strategy The databases PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL and Psych-INFO were searched for relevant articles. Selection Criteria Longitudinal cohort studies with a minimal follow-up of 1 month that investigated the association between risk factors (personal factors, running/training factors and/or health and lifestyle factors) and the occurrence of lower limb injuries in runners were included. Data Collection and Analysis Two reviewers’ independently selected relevant articles from those identified by the systematic search and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies. The strength of the evidence was determined using a best-evidence rating system. Sex differences in risk were determined by calculating the sex ratio for risk factors (the risk factor for women divided by the risk factor for men). Main Results Of 400 articles retrieved, 15 longitudinal studies were included, of which 11 were considered high-quality studies and 4 moderate-quality studies. Overall, women were at lower risk than men for sustaining running-related injuries. Strong and moderate evidence was found that a history of previous injury and of having used orthotics/inserts was associated with an increased risk of running injuries. Age, previous sports activity, running on a concrete surface, participating in a marathon, weekly running distance (30–39 miles) and wearing running shoes for 4 to 6 months were associated with a greater risk of injury in women than in men. A history of previous injuries, having a running experience of 0–2 years, restarting running, weekly running distance (20–29 miles) and having a running distance of more than 40 miles per week were associated with a greater risk of running-related injury in men than in women. Conclusions Previous injury and use of orthotic/inserts are risk factors for running injuries. There appeared to be differences in the risk profile of men and women, but as few studies presented results for men and women separately, the results should be interpreted with caution. Further research should attempt to minimize methodological bias by paying attention to recall bias for running injuries, follow-up time, and the participation rate of the identified target group. PMID:25706955

[Subclinical thyroid diseases].

PubMed

Zamrazil, V

2007-01-01

Subclinical thyroids disease (STD) is recently defined term in clinical thyroidology, which includes mainly functional disorders. Basic diagnostic signs are: normal values of thyroid hormones (fT4, fT3) and elevated TSH level (subclinical hypothyroidism) or suppresed TSH level (subclinical hyperthyroidism). In a category of STD may be included subclinical autoimunne thyroiditis (elevated level of thyroid antigens antibodies and/or hypoechogenity in sonographic screen, increased volume of the thyroid without clinical symptoms and/or autoimminity) and microscopic lesions of papillary thyroid carcinoma. Subclinical hypothyroidism may be dangerous for tendency to development of manifest hypothyroidism and for risk of disorders of lipid profile and development of atherosclerosis and its organ complication (esp. myocardial infarction). Subclinical hyperthyroidism is a risk factor of cardiac arythmias and probably can increase a risk of cardiovascular mortality) as well for osteoporosis (esp. in peri- and post-climacteric women), and last but not least for degenerative diseases of brain (?). Indication of treatment of STD is a matter of controversies. Recomendations of experts, varied from "no therapy, monitoring only" to "treat always". Treatment of risk groups (esp. pregnant women) is probably nowadays a most rationale recommendations since results of sofisticated prospective studies will be available.

On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship between Risk and Return

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pipień, M.

2008-09-01

We present the results of an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, proposed by Merton we built a general sampling distribution suitable in analysing this relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to Skewed Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic-in-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered the unified approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we applied hidden truncation mechanism, inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations and also a constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of the positive sign of the tested relationship.

Comparing the risk factors associated with serious versus and less serious work-related injuries in Ontario between 1991 and 2006.

PubMed

Smith, Peter; Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah; Mustard, Cameron; Chen, Cynthia; Tompa, Emile

2012-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine and compare the demographic and labor market risks for more serious and less serious work-related injuries and illnesses. Secondary analysis of accepted workers' compensation claims in Ontario, combined with labor force estimates for the period 1991 to 2006. Serious injuries and illnesses were claims resulting in wage replacement. Less serious injuries and illnesses were claims only requiring health care. Regression models examined the relationship between demographic and labor market characteristics (age, gender, industry, job tenure, and unemployment) and claim type. Relative risk estimates for serious and less serious claims were not concordant across age, gender and industry employment groups. For example, while the mining and utilities and the construction industry had an increased probability of reporting NLTCs, they had a decreased probability of reporting LTCs. The risk for serious and less serious work-related injury and illness claims differ by demographic and labor market groups. The use of composite measures that combine wage-replacement and health care only claims should be considered when using compensation data for surveillance and primary prevention targeting strategies. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Metric properties of the "timed get up and go- modified version" test, in risk assessment of falls in active women

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective: To analyse the metric properties of the Timed Get up and Go-Modified Version Test (TGUGM), in risk assessment of falls in a group of physically active women. Methods: A sample was constituted by 202 women over 55 years of age, were assessed through a crosssectional study. The TGUGM was applied to assess their fall risk. The test was analysed by comparison of the qualitative and quantitative information and by factor analysis. The development of a logistic regression model explained the risk of falls according to the test components. Results: The TGUGM was useful for assessing the risk of falls in the studied group. The test revealed two factors: the Get Up and the Gait with dual task. Less than twelve points in the evaluation or runtimes higher than 35 seconds was associated with high risk of falling. More than 35 seconds in the test indicated a risk fall probability greater than 0.50. Also, scores less than 12 points were associated with a delay of 7 seconds more in the execution of the test (p= 0.0016). Conclusions: Factor analysis of TGUGM revealed two dimensions that can be independent predictors of risk of falling: The Get up that explains between 64% and 87% of the risk of falling, and the Gait with dual task, that explains between 77% and 95% of risk of falling. PMID:28559642

Proposal for a recovery prediction method for patients affected by acute mediastinitis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background An attempt to find a prediction method of death risk in patients affected by acute mediastinitis. There is not such a tool described in available literature for that serious disease. Methods The study comprised 44 consecutive cases of acute mediastinitis. General anamnesis and biochemical data were included. Factor analysis was used to extract the risk characteristic for the patients. The most valuable results were obtained for 8 parameters which were selected for further statistical analysis (all collected during few hours after admission). Three factors reached Eigenvalue >1. Clinical explanations of these combined statistical factors are: Factor1 - proteinic status (serum total protein, albumin, and hemoglobin level), Factor2 - inflammatory status (white blood cells, CRP, procalcitonin), and Factor3 - general risk (age, number of coexisting diseases). Threshold values of prediction factors were estimated by means of statistical analysis (factor analysis, Statgraphics Centurion XVI). Results The final prediction result for the patients is constructed as simultaneous evaluation of all factor scores. High probability of death should be predicted if factor 1 value decreases with simultaneous increase of factors 2 and 3. The diagnostic power of the proposed method was revealed to be high [sensitivity =90%, specificity =64%], for Factor1 [SNC = 87%, SPC = 79%]; for Factor2 [SNC = 87%, SPC = 50%] and for Factor3 [SNC = 73%, SPC = 71%]. Conclusion The proposed prediction method seems a useful emergency signal during acute mediastinitis control in affected patients. PMID:22574625

Flood Risk Assessments of Architectural Heritage - Case of Changgyeonggung Palace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyosang; Kim, Ji-sung; Lee, Ho-jin

2014-05-01

The risk of natural disasters such as flood and earthquake has increased due to recent extreme weather events. Therefore, the necessity of the risk management system to protect architectural properties, a cultural heritage of humanity, from natural disasters has been consistently felt. The solutions for managing flood risk focusing on architectural heritage are suggested and applied to protect Changgyeonggung Palace, a major palace heritage in Seoul. After the probable rainfall scenario for risk assessment (frequency: 100 years, 200 years, and 500 years) and the scenario of a probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are made and a previous rainfall event (from July 26th to 28th in 2011) is identified, they are used for the model (HEC-HMS, SWMM) to assess flood risk of certain areas covering Changgyeonggung Palace to do flood amount. Such flood amount makes it possible to identify inundation risks based on GIS models to assess flood risk of individual architectural heritage. The results of assessing such risk are used to establish the disaster risk management system that managers of architectural properties can utilize. According to the results of assessing flood risk of Changgyeonggung Palace, inundation occurs near outlets of Changgyeonggung Palace and sections of river channel for all scenarios of flood risk but the inundation risk of major architectural properties was estimated low. The methods for assessing flood risk of architectural heritage proposed in this study and the risk management system for Changgyeonggung Palace using the methods show thorough solutions for flood risk management and the possibility of using the solutions seems high. A comprehensive management system for architectural heritage will be established in the future through the review on diverse factors for disasters.

Improving Global Vascular Risk Prediction with Behavioral and Anthropometric Factors: The Multi-ethnic Northern Manhattan Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Sacco, Ralph L.; Khatri, Minesh; Rundek, Tatjana; Xu, Qiang; Gardener, Hannah; Boden-Albala, Bernadette; Di Tullio, Marco R.; Homma, Shunichi; Elkind, Mitchell SV; Paik, Myunghee C

2010-01-01

Objective To improve global vascular risk prediction with behavioral and anthropometric factors. Background Few cardiovascular risk models are designed to predict the global vascular risk of MI, stroke, or vascular death in multi-ethnic individuals, and existing schemes do not fully include behavioral risk factors. Methods A randomly-derived, population-based, prospective cohort of 2737 community participants free of stroke and coronary artery disease were followed annually for a median of 9.0 years in the Northern Manhattan Study (mean age 69 years; 63.2% women; 52.7% Hispanic, 24.9% African-American, 19.9% white). A global vascular risk score (GVRS) predictive of stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death was developed by adding variables to the traditional Framingham cardiovascular variables based on the likelihood ratio criterion. Model utility was assessed through receiver operating characteristics, calibration, and effect on reclassification of subjects. Results Variables which significantly added to the traditional Framingham profile included waist circumference, alcohol consumption, and physical activity. Continuous measures for blood pressure and fasting blood sugar were used instead of hypertension and diabetes. Ten -year event-free probabilities were 0.95 for the first quartile of GVRS, 0.89 for the second quartile, 0.79 for the third quartile, and 0.56 for the fourth quartile. The addition of behavioral factors in our model improved prediction of 10 -year event rates compared to a model restricted to the traditional variables. Conclusion A global vascular risk score that combines both traditional, behavioral, and anthropometric risk factors, uses continuous variables for physiological parameters, and is applicable to non-white subjects could improve primary prevention strategies. PMID:19958966

Should Subtotal Thyroidectomy Be Abandoned in Multinodular Goiter Patients From Endemic Regions Requiring Surgery?

PubMed Central

Yoldas, Tayfun; Makay, Ozer; Icoz, Gokhan; Kose, Timur; Gezer, Gulten; Kismali, Erkan; Tamsel, Sadık; Ozbek, Sureyya; Yılmaz, Mustafa; Akyildiz, Mahir

2015-01-01

The most convenient surgical procedure for benign thyroid diseases is still controversial. The aim of this study is to determine the recurrence rate and risk factors for recurrence after different thyroidectomy procedures in multinodular goiter patients. Patients were separated into two groups according to the detection of a recurrent nodule or not after thyroidectomy. Of the 748 patients, 216 (29%) had recurrence, while 532 had no recurrent nodule. The difference between surgical procedures described as subtotal (ST), near total (NT) and total thyroidectomy (TT) was statistically significant. Transient hypoparathyroidism was significantly higher in NT and TT, when compared to ST patients (P < 0.05). Young age, bilateral multinodular goiter and insufficient surgery are risk factors affecting recurrence for benign nodular thyroid disease. Currently, subtotal procedures should be discontinued and total or near total procedures should be preferred. Meanwhile, the probability of a higher risk of hypoparathyroidism should be kept in mind. PMID:25594634

Posttraumatic stress symptoms, PTSD, and risk factors among lower Manhattan residents 2-3 years after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

PubMed

DiGrande, Laura; Perrin, Megan A; Thorpe, Lorna E; Thalji, Lisa; Murphy, Joseph; Wu, David; Farfel, Mark; Brackbill, Robert M

2008-06-01

Manhattan residents living near the World Trade Center may have been particularly vulnerable to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after the September 11, 2001 (9/11) terrorist attacks. In 2003-2004, the authors administered the PTSD Checklist to 11,037 adults who lived south of Canal Street in New York City on 9/11. The prevalence of probable PTSD was 12.6% and associated with older age, female gender, Hispanic ethnicity, low education and income, and divorce. Injury, witnessing horror, and dust cloud exposure on 9/11 increased risk for chronic PTSD. Postdisaster risk factors included evacuation and rescue and recovery work. The results indicate that PTSD is a continued health problem in the local community. The relationship between socioeconomic status and PTSD suggests services must target marginalized populations. Followup is necessary on the course and long-term consequences of PTSD.

Potential Predictors of Plasma Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 Concentrations: Cross-Sectional Analysis in the EPIC-Germany Study

PubMed Central

di Giuseppe, Romina; Kühn, Tilman; Hirche, Frank; Buijsse, Brian; Dierkes, Jutta; Fritsche, Andreas; Kaaks, Rudolf; Boeing, Heiner; Stangl, Gabriele I.; Weikert, Cornelia

2015-01-01

Background Increased fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), a bone-derived hormone involved in the regulation of phosphate and vitamin D metabolism, has been related to the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in chronic kidney disease patients and in the general population. However, what determines higher FGF23 levels is still unclear. Also, little is known about the influence of diet on FGF23. The aim of this study was therefore to identify demographic, clinical and dietary correlates of high FGF23 concentrations in the general population. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis within a randomly selected subcohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Germany comprising 2134 middle-aged men and women. The Human FGF23 (C-Terminal) ELISA kit was used to measure FGF23 in citrate plasma. Dietary data were obtained at baseline via validated food frequency questionnaires including up to 148 food items. Results Multivariable adjusted logistic regression showed that men had a 66% lower and smokers a 64% higher probability of having higher FGF23 (≥ 90 RU/mL) levels compared, respectively, with women and nonsmokers. Each doubling in parathyroid hormone, creatinine, and C-reactive protein was related to higher FGF23. Among the dietary factors, each doubling in calcium and total energy intake was related, respectively, to a 1.75 and to a 4.41 fold increased probability of having higher FGF23. Finally, each doubling in the intake of iron was related to an 82% lower probability of having higher FGF23 levels. Results did not substantially change after exclusion of participants with lower kidney function. Conclusions In middle-aged men and women traditional and non-traditional CVD risk factors were related to higher FGF23 concentrations. These findings may contribute to the understanding of the potential mechanisms linking increased FGF23 to increased CVD risk. PMID:26193703

A Longitudinal Investigation of Alcohol Use over the Course of the Year Following Medical-Surgical Intensive Care Unit Admission

PubMed Central

Davydow, Dimitry S.; Zatzick, Douglas; Hough, Catherine L.; Katon, Wayne J.

2013-01-01

Background There have been no studies describing post-intensive care unit (ICU) alcohol use among medical-surgical ICU survivors. Objective To examine alcohol use and identify potentially modifiable risk factors, such as in-hospital probable acute stress disorder, for increased alcohol use following medical-surgical ICU admission. Method This longitudinal investigation included 150 medical-surgical ICU survivors. In-hospital interviews obtained baseline characteristics including pre-ICU alcohol use with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and in-hospital probable acute stress disorder with the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist-civilian version. Clinical factors were obtained from medical records. Post-ICU alcohol use was ascertained via telephone interviews at 3 and 12 months post-discharge using the AUDIT. Mixed-model linear regression was used to examine potential risk factors for increased post-ICU alcohol use. Results There was a significant decline in the mean AUDIT score from baseline (3.9, 95%Confidence Interval [95%CI]: 2.9, 5.0) to 3 months post-ICU (1.5, 95%CI: 1.0, 2.1) (P < 0.001 by one-way analysis of variance [ANOVA]), with a significant increase between 3 and 12 months post-ICU (2.7, 95%CI: 1.8, 3.5) (P < 0.001 by one-way ANOVA). After adjusting for patient and clinical factors, in-hospital probable acute stress disorder (beta: 3.0, 95%CI: 0.9, 5.0) and pre-ICU unhealthy alcohol use (beta: 5.4, 95%CI: 3.4, 7.4) were independently associated with increased post-ICU alcohol use. Conclusions Alcohol use decreases in the early aftermath of medical-surgical ICU admission and then increases significantly by one year post-ICU. Interventions for unhealthy alcohol use among medical-surgical ICU survivors that take into account comorbid psychiatric symptoms are needed. PMID:23414847

If you provide the test, they will take it: factors associated with HIV/STI Testing in a representative sample of homeless youth in Los Angeles.

PubMed

Ober, Allison J; Martino, Steven C; Ewing, Brett; Tucker, Joan S

2012-08-01

Homeless youth are at high risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STI), yet those at greatest risk may never have been tested for HIV or STI. In a probability sample of sexually active homeless youth in Los Angeles (n = 305), this study identifies factors associated with HIV/STI testing status. Most youth (85%) had ever been tested and 47% had been tested in the past 3 months. Recent testing was significantly more likely among youth who self-identified as gay, were Hispanic, injected drugs, and used drop-in centers, and marginally more likely among youth with more depressive symptoms. Drop-in center use mediated the association of injection drug use with HIV/STI testing. HIV/STI testing was unrelated to sexual risk behavior. Drop-in centers can play an important role in facilitating testing, including among injection drug users, but more outreach is needed to encourage testing in other at-risk subgroups.

If You Provide the Test, They will Take It: Factors Associated with HIV/STI Testing in a Representative Sample of Homeless Youth in Los Angeles*

PubMed Central

Ober, Allison J.; Martino, Steven C.; Ewing, Brett; Tucker, Joan S.

2012-01-01

Homeless youth are at high risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and other sexually transmitted infections (STI), yet those at greatest risk may never have been tested for HIV or STI. In a probability sample of sexually active homeless youth in Los Angeles (n =305), this study identifies factors associated with HIV/STI testing status. Most youth (85%) had ever been tested and 47% had tested in the past 3 months. Recent testing was significantly more likely among youth who self-identified as gay, were Hispanic, injected drugs, and used drop-in centers, and marginally more likely among youth with more depressive symptoms. Drop-in center use mediated the association of injection drug use with HIV/STI testing. HIV/STI testing was unrelated to sexual risk behavior. Drop-in centers can play an important role in facilitating testing, including among injection drug users, but more outreach is needed to encourage testing in other at-risk subgroups. PMID:22827904

The effects of socioeconomic status on stroke risk and outcomes.

PubMed

Marshall, Iain J; Wang, Yanzhong; Crichton, Siobhan; McKevitt, Christopher; Rudd, Anthony G; Wolfe, Charles D A

2015-12-01

The latest evidence on socioeconomic status and stroke shows that stroke not only disproportionately affects low-income and middle-income countries, but also socioeconomically deprived populations within high-income countries. These disparities are reflected not only in risk of stroke but also in short-term and long-term outcomes after stroke. Increased average levels of conventional risk factors (eg, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, excessive alcohol intake, smoking, obesity, and sedentary lifestyle) in populations with low socioeconomic status account for about half of these effects. In many countries, evidence shows that people with lower socioeconomic status are less likely to receive good-quality acute hospital and rehabilitation care than people with higher socioeconomic status. For clinical practice, better implementation of well established treatments, effective management of risk factors, and equity of access to high-quality acute stroke care and rehabilitation will probably reduce inequality substantially. Overcoming barriers and adapting evidence-based interventions to different countries and health-care settings remains a research priority. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task: An Individual Level Betrayal Aversion Measure

PubMed Central

Aimone, Jason; Ball, Sheryl; King-Casas, Brooks

2015-01-01

Research on betrayal aversion shows that individuals’ response to risk depends not only on probabilities and payoffs, but also on whether the risk includes a betrayal of trust. While previous studies focus on measuring aggregate levels of betrayal aversion, the connection between an individual’s own betrayal aversion and other individually varying factors, including risk preferences, are currently unexplored. This paper develops a new task to elicit an individual’s level of betrayal aversion that can then be compared to individual characteristics. We demonstrate the feasibility of our new task and show that our aggregate individual results are consistent with previous studies. We then use this classification to ask whether betrayal aversion is correlated with risk aversion. While we find risk aversion and betrayal aversion have no significant relationship, we do observe that risk aversion is correlated with non-social risk preferences, but not the social, betrayal related, risk component of the new task. PMID:26331944

The Betrayal Aversion Elicitation Task: An Individual Level Betrayal Aversion Measure.

PubMed

Aimone, Jason; Ball, Sheryl; King-Casas, Brooks

2015-01-01

Research on betrayal aversion shows that individuals' response to risk depends not only on probabilities and payoffs, but also on whether the risk includes a betrayal of trust. While previous studies focus on measuring aggregate levels of betrayal aversion, the connection between an individual's own betrayal aversion and other individually varying factors, including risk preferences, are currently unexplored. This paper develops a new task to elicit an individual's level of betrayal aversion that can then be compared to individual characteristics. We demonstrate the feasibility of our new task and show that our aggregate individual results are consistent with previous studies. We then use this classification to ask whether betrayal aversion is correlated with risk aversion. While we find risk aversion and betrayal aversion have no significant relationship, we do observe that risk aversion is correlated with non-social risk preferences, but not the social, betrayal related, risk component of the new task.

Adverse radiation effect after stereotactic radiosurgery for brain metastases: incidence, time course, and risk factors.

PubMed

Sneed, Penny K; Mendez, Joe; Vemer-van den Hoek, Johanna G M; Seymour, Zachary A; Ma, Lijun; Molinaro, Annette M; Fogh, Shannon E; Nakamura, Jean L; McDermott, Michael W

2015-08-01

The authors sought to determine the incidence, time course, and risk factors for overall adverse radiation effect (ARE) and symptomatic ARE after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases. All cases of brain metastases treated from 1998 through 2009 with Gamma Knife SRS at UCSF were considered. Cases with less than 3 months of follow-up imaging, a gap of more than 8 months in imaging during the 1st year, or inadequate imaging availability were excluded. Brain scans and pathology reports were reviewed to ensure consistent scoring of dates of ARE, treatment failure, or both; in case of uncertainty, the cause of lesion worsening was scored as indeterminate. Cumulative incidence of ARE and failure were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method with censoring at last imaging. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed. Among 435 patients and 2200 brain metastases evaluable, the median patient survival time was 17.4 months and the median lesion imaging follow-up was 9.9 months. Calculated on the basis of 2200 evaluable lesions, the rates of treatment failure, ARE, concurrent failure and ARE, and lesion worsening with indeterminate cause were 9.2%, 5.4%, 1.4%, and 4.1%, respectively. Among 118 cases of ARE, approximately 60% were symptomatic and 85% occurred 3-18 months after SRS (median 7.2 months). For 99 ARE cases managed without surgery or bevacizumab, the probabilities of improvement observed on imaging were 40%, 57%, and 76% at 6, 12, and 18 months after onset of ARE. The most important risk factors for ARE included prior SRS to the same lesion (with 20% 1-year risk of symptomatic ARE vs 3%, 4%, and 8% for no prior treatment, prior whole brain radiotherapy [WBRT], or concurrent WBRT) and any of these volume parameters: target, prescription isodose, 12-Gy, or 10-Gy volume. Excluding lesions treated with repeat SRS, the 1-year probabilities of ARE were < 1%, 1%, 3%, 10%, and 14% for maximum diameter 0.3-0.6 cm, 0.7-1.0 cm, 1.1-1.5 cm, 1.6-2.0 cm, and 2.1-5.1 cm, respectively. The 1-year probabilities of symptomatic ARE leveled off at 13%-14% for brain metastases maximum diameter > 2.1 cm, target volume > 1.2 cm(3), prescription isodose volume > 1.8 cm(3), 12-Gy volume > 3.3 cm(3), and 10-Gy volume > 4.3 cm(3), excluding lesions treated with repeat SRS. On both univariate and multivariate analysis, capecitabine, but not other systemic therapy within 1 month of SRS, appeared to increase ARE risk. For the multivariate analysis considering only metastases with target volume > 1.0 cm(3), risk factors for ARE included prior SRS, kidney primary tumor, connective tissue disorder, and capecitabine. Although incidence of ARE after SRS was low overall, risk increased rapidly with size and volume, leveling off at a 1-year cumulative incidence of 13%-14%. This study describes the time course of ARE and provides risk estimates by various lesion characteristics and treatment parameters to aid in decision-making and patient counseling.

Penile Anaerobic Dysbiosis as a Risk Factor for HIV Infection

PubMed Central

Prodger, Jessica L.; Tobian, Aaron A. R.; Abraham, Alison G.; Kigozi, Godfrey; Aziz, Maliha; Nalugoda, Fred; Sariya, Sanjeev; Serwadda, David; Kaul, Rupert; Gray, Ronald H.; Price, Lance B.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Sexual transmission of HIV requires exposure to the virus and infection of activated mucosal immune cells, specifically CD4+ T cells or dendritic cells. The foreskin is a major site of viral entry in heterosexual transmission of HIV. Although the probability of acquiring HIV from a sexual encounter is low, the risk varies even after adjusting for known HIV risk factors. The genital microbiome may account for some of the variability in risk by interacting with the host immune system to trigger inflammatory responses that mediate the infection of mucosal immune cells. We conducted a case-control study of uncircumcised participants nested within a randomized-controlled trial of male circumcision in Rakai, Uganda. Using penile (coronal sulcus) swabs collected by study personnel at trial enrollment, we characterized the penile microbiome by sequencing and real-time PCR and cytokine levels by electrochemiluminescence assays. The absolute abundances of penile anaerobes at enrollment were associated with later risk of HIV seroconversion, with a 10-fold increase in Prevotella, Dialister, Finegoldia, and Peptoniphilus increasing the odds of HIV acquisition by 54 to 63%, after controlling for other known HIV risk factors. Increased abundances of anaerobic bacteria were also correlated with increased cytokines, including interleukin-8, which can trigger an inflammatory response that recruits susceptible immune cells, suggesting a mechanism underlying the increased risk. These same anaerobic genera can be shared between heterosexual partners and are associated with increased HIV acquisition in women, pointing to anaerobic dysbiosis in the genital microbiome and an accompanying inflammatory response as a novel, independent, and transmissible risk factor for HIV infection. PMID:28743816

When can scientific studies promote consensus among conflicting stakeholders?

PubMed

Small, Mitchell J; Güvenç, Ümit; DeKay, Michael L

2014-11-01

While scientific studies may help conflicting stakeholders come to agreement on a best management option or policy, often they do not. We review the factors affecting trust in the efficacy and objectivity of scientific studies in an analytical-deliberative process where conflict is present, and show how they may be incorporated in an extension to the traditional Bayesian decision model. The extended framework considers stakeholders who differ in their prior beliefs regarding the probability of possible outcomes (in particular, whether a proposed technology is hazardous), differ in their valuations of these outcomes, and differ in their assessment of the ability of a proposed study to resolve the uncertainty in the outcomes and their hazards--as measured by their perceived false positive and false negative rates for the study. The Bayesian model predicts stakeholder-specific preposterior probabilities of consensus, as well as pathways for increasing these probabilities, providing important insights into the value of scientific information in an analytic-deliberative decision process where agreement is sought. It also helps to identify the interactions among perceived risk and benefit allocations, scientific beliefs, and trust in proposed scientific studies when determining whether a consensus can be achieved. The article provides examples to illustrate the method, including an adaptation of a recent decision analysis for managing the health risks of electromagnetic fields from high voltage transmission lines. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Fuzzy risk analysis of a modern γ-ray industrial irradiator.

PubMed

Castiglia, F; Giardina, M

2011-06-01

Fuzzy fault tree analyses were used to investigate accident scenarios that involve radiological exposure to operators working in industrial γ-ray irradiation facilities. The HEART method, a first generation human reliability analysis method, was used to evaluate the probability of adverse human error in these analyses. This technique was modified on the basis of fuzzy set theory to more directly take into account the uncertainties in the error-promoting factors on which the methodology is based. Moreover, with regard to some identified accident scenarios, fuzzy radiological exposure risk, expressed in terms of potential annual death, was evaluated. The calculated fuzzy risks for the examined plant were determined to be well below the reference risk suggested by International Commission on Radiological Protection.

Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim,Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2012-01-01

Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

Participatory probabilistic assessment of the risk to human health associated with cryptosporidiosis from urban dairying in Dagoretti, Nairobi, Kenya.

PubMed

Grace, Delia; Monda, Joseph; Karanja, Nancy; Randolph, Thomas F; Kang'ethe, Erastus K

2012-09-01

We carried out a participatory risk assessment to estimate the risk (negative consequences and their likelihood) from zoonotic Cryptosporidium originating in dairy farms in urban Dagoretti, Nairobi to dairy farm households and their neighbours. We selected 20 households at high risk for Cryptosporidium from a larger sample of 300 dairy households in Dagoretti based on risk factors present. We then conducted a participatory mapping of the flow of the hazard from its origin (cattle) to human potential victims. This showed three main exposure pathways (food and water borne, occupational and recreational). This was used to develop a fault tree model which we parameterised using information from the study and literature. A stochastic simulation was used to estimate the probability of exposure to zoonotic cryptosporidiosis originating from urban dairying. Around 6 % of environmental samples were positive for Cryptosporidium. Probability of exposure to Cryptosporidium from dairy cattle ranged from 0.0055 for people with clinical acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in non-dairy households to 0.0102 for children under 5 years from dairy households. Most of the estimated health burden was born by children. Although dairy cattle are the source of Cryptosporidium, the model suggests consumption of vegetables is a greater source of risk than consumption of milk. In conclusion, by combining participatory methods with quantitative microbial risk assessment, we were able to rapidly, and with appropriate 'imprecision', investigate health risk to communities from Cryptosporidium and identify the most vulnerable groups and the most risky practices.

Improving prediction of fall risk among nursing home residents using electronic medical records.

PubMed

Marier, Allison; Olsho, Lauren E W; Rhodes, William; Spector, William D

2016-03-01

Falls are physically and financially costly, but may be preventable with targeted intervention. The Minimum Data Set (MDS) is one potential source of information on fall risk factors among nursing home residents, but its limited breadth and relatively infrequent updates may limit its practical utility. Richer, more frequently updated data from electronic medical records (EMRs) may improve ability to identify individuals at highest risk for falls. The authors applied a repeated events survival model to analyze MDS 3.0 and EMR data for 5129 residents in 13 nursing homes within a single large California chain that uses a centralized EMR system from a leading vendor. Estimated regression parameters were used to project resident fall probability. The authors examined the proportion of observed falls within each projected fall risk decile to assess improvements in predictive power from including EMR data. In a model incorporating fall risk factors from the MDS only, 28.6% of observed falls occurred among residents in the highest projected risk decile. In an alternative specification incorporating more frequently updated measures for the same risk factors from the EMR data, 32.3% of observed falls occurred among residents in the highest projected risk decile, a 13% increase over the base MDS-only specification. Incorporating EMR data improves ability to identify those at highest risk for falls relative to prediction using MDS data alone. These improvements stem chiefly from the greater frequency with which EMR data are updated, with minimal additional gains from availability of additional risk factor variables. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Association between metabolic syndrome and bone fracture risk: A community-based study using a fracture risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Yu, Chia-Ying; Chen, Fang-Ping; Chen, Li-Wei; Kuo, Sheng-Fong; Chien, Rong-Nan

2017-12-01

Osteoporosis and metabolic syndrome (MS) share similar risk factors. Previous studies of association between bone marrow density (BMD) and MS are controversial. Moreover, some studies revealed that MS is associated with BMD but not with bone fracture. In clinical practice, patients pay more attention to bone fracture risk than BMD values. Hence, this study aimed to evaluate the association between MS and the 10-year bone fracture risk probability using a fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) from community-based data. From March 2014 to August 2015, 2689 participants (897 men and 1792 women) were enrolled in this study. Inflammatory cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor alpha and C-reactive protein, and adipokines were included for analysis.The mean age was 60.2 ± 10.7 years in men and 58.9 ± 9.6 years in women. The percentage of MS was 27.6% in men and 27.9% in women. Participants were divided into 2 groups, those with or without MS. Compared with women without MS, women with MS had a higher rate of fracture risk (22.8% vs 16.3%, P = .001). In contrast, men with MS had a lower rate of fracture risk then men without MS (5.6% vs 12.3%, P = .004). However, MS loss the association with a high bone fracture risk in men based on multivariate logistical regression analysis, after adjusting for confounding factor of body mass index (BMI). Conclusively, the result of regression analysis between MS and the bone fracture risk may be different in men and women, and BMI was an important confounding factor to interfere with the regression analysis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

Establishing a Program for Individuals at High Risk for Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Cadiz, Fernando; Kuerer, Henry M.; Puga, Julio; Camacho, Jamile; Cunill, Eduardo; Arun, Banu

2013-01-01

Our need to create a program for individuals at high risk for breast cancer development led us to research the available data on such programs. In this paper, we summarize our findings and our thinking process as we developed our own program. Breast cancer incidence is increasing worldwide. Even though there are known risk factors for breast cancer development, approximately 60% of patients with breast cancer have no known risk factor, although this situation will probably change with further research, especially in genetics. For patients with risk factors based on personal or family history, different models are available for assessing and quantifying risk. Assignment of risk levels permits tailored screening and risk reduction strategies. Potential benefits of specialized programs for women with high breast cancer risk include more cost -effective interventions as a result of patient stratification on the basis of risk; generation of valuable data to advance science; and differentiation of breast programs from other breast cancer units, which can result in increased revenue that can be directed to further improvements in patient care. Guidelines for care of patients at high risk for breast cancer are available from various groups. However, running a high-risk breast program involves much more than applying a guideline. Each high-risk program needs to be designed by its institution with consideration of local resources and country legislation, especially related to genetic issues. Development of a successful high-risk program includes identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; developing a promotion plan; choosing a risk assessment tool; defining “high risk”; and planning screening and risk reduction strategies for the specific population served by the program. The information in this article may be useful for other institutions considering creation of programs for patients with high breast cancer risk. PMID:23833688

Migraine and risk of stroke: a national population-based twin study.

PubMed

Lantz, Maria; Sieurin, Johanna; Sjölander, Arvid; Waldenlind, Elisabet; Sjöstrand, Christina; Wirdefeldt, Karin

2017-10-01

Numerous studies have indicated an increased risk for stroke in patients with migraine, especially migraine with aura; however, many studies used self-reported migraine and only a few controlled for familial factors. We aimed to investigate migraine as a risk factor for stroke in a Swedish population-based twin cohort, and whether familial factors contribute to an increased risk. The study population included twins without prior cerebrovascular disease who answered a headache questionnaire during 1998 and 2002 for twins born 1935-58 and during 2005-06 for twins born between 1959 and 1985. Migraine with and without aura and probable migraine was defined by an algorithm mapping on to clinical diagnostic criteria according to the International Classification of Headache Disorders. Stroke diagnoses were obtained from the national patient and cause of death registers. Twins were followed longitudinally, by linkage of national registers, from date of interview until date of first stroke, death, or end of study on 31 Dec 2014. In total, 8635 twins had any migraineous headache, whereof 3553 had migraine with aura and 5082 had non-aura migraineous headache (including migraine without aura and probable migraine), and 44 769 twins had no migraine. During a mean follow-up time of 11.9 years we observed 1297 incident cases of stroke. The Cox proportional hazards model with attained age as underlying time scale was used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for stroke including ischaemic and haemorrhagic subtypes related to migraine with aura, non-aura migraineous headache, and any migraineous headache. Analyses were adjusted for gender and cardiovascular risk factors. Where appropriate; within-pair analyses were performed to control for confounding by familial factors. The age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratio for stroke related to migraine with aura was 1.27 (95% confidence interval 1.00-1.62), P = 0.05, and 1.07 (95% confidence interval 0.91-1.26), P = 0.39 related to any migraineous headache. Multivariable adjusted analyses showed similar results. When stratified by gender and attained age of ≤50 or >50 years, the estimated hazard ratio for stroke was higher in twins younger than 50 years and in females; however, non-significant. In the within-pair analysis, the hazard ratio for stroke related to migraine with aura was attenuated [hazard ratio 1.09 (95% confidence interval 0.81-1.46), P = 0.59]. In conclusion, we observed no increased stroke risk related to migraine overall but there was a modestly increased risk for stroke related to migraine with aura, and within-pair analyses suggested that familial factors might contribute to this association. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risks and probabilities of breast cancer: short-term versus lifetime probabilities.

PubMed Central

Bryant, H E; Brasher, P M

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To calculate age-specific short-term and lifetime probabilities of breast cancer among a cohort of Canadian women. DESIGN: Double decrement life table. SETTING: Alberta. SUBJECTS: Women with first invasive breast cancers registered with the Alberta Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime probability of breast cancer from birth and for women at various ages; short-term (up to 10 years) probability of breast cancer for women at various ages. RESULTS: The lifetime probability of breast cancer is 10.17% at birth and peaks at 10.34% at age 25 years, after which it decreases owing to a decline in the number of years over which breast cancer risk will be experienced. However, the probability of manifesting breast cancer in the next year increases steadily from the age of 30 onward, reaching 0.36% at 85 years. The probability of manifesting the disease within the next 10 years peaks at 2.97% at age 70 and decreases thereafter, again owing to declining probabilities of surviving the interval. CONCLUSIONS: Given that the incidence of breast cancer among Albertan women during the study period was similar to the national average, we conclude that currently more than 1 in 10 women in Canada can expect to have breast cancer at some point during their life. However, risk varies considerably over a woman's lifetime, with most risk concentrated after age 49. On the basis of the shorter-term age-specific risks that we present, the clinician can put breast cancer risk into perspective for younger women and heighten awareness among women aged 50 years or more. PMID:8287343

Low awareness of risk factors among bladder cancer survivors: New evidence and a literature overview.

PubMed

Westhoff, Ellen; Maria de Oliveira-Neumayer, Julia; Aben, Katja K; Vrieling, Alina; Kiemeney, Lambertus A

2016-06-01

Data on urinary bladder cancer (UBC) patients' perceptions about causes of bladder cancer is limited, while this may be important knowledge for health prevention and education. We evaluated self-reported perceptions and beliefs about the causes of bladder cancer among UBC survivors in the Netherlands. UBC survivors identified through the Netherlands Cancer Registry from 2007 to 2012 were invited to participate. Patients who consented were asked to fill out a questionnaire, including questions on lifestyle characteristics, occupational and medical history, and family history of cancer. The final question was 'You have been diagnosed with bladder cancer. Do you have any idea what may have been the cause of your cancer?'. Of the 1793 UBC survivors included, 366 (20%) reported a possible cause for their bladder cancer. The most frequently reported suspected causes were smoking (10%), occupational exposure (5%), and heredity (2%). Smoking, occupational exposure and heredity were mentioned only slightly more frequently by participants with these risk factors (11%, 8%, and 5%, respectively) compared to the total population. Most UBC survivors did not suspect any cause that might have contributed to the development of their cancer. Even among participants with established risk factors for bladder cancer, these risk factors were not commonly perceived. This finding probably reflects the superficial knowledge of risk factors for bladder cancer in the population and highlights the importance of effective education on cancer prevention. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A time series model of the occurrence of gastric dilatation-volvulus in a population of dogs

PubMed Central

Levine, Michael; Moore, George E

2009-01-01

Background Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of mammals, with increased risk in large breed dogs. The study of its etiological factors is difficult due to the variety of possible living conditions. The association between meteorological events and the occurrence of GDV has been postulated but remains unclear. This study introduces the binary time series approach to the investigation of the possible meteorological risk factors for GDV. The data collected in a population of high-risk working dogs in Texas was used. Results Minimum and maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day of GDV event and the maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day before the GDV event were positively associated with the probability of GDV. All of the odds/multiplicative factors of a day being GDV day were interpreted conditionally on the past GDV occurrences. There was minimal difference between the binary and Poisson general linear models. Conclusion Time series modeling provided a novel method for evaluating the association between meteorological variables and GDV in a large population of dogs. Appropriate application of this method was enhanced by a common environment for the dogs and availability of meteorological data. The potential interaction between weather changes and patient risk factors for GDV deserves further investigation. PMID:19368730

A time series model of the occurrence of gastric dilatation-volvulus in a population of dogs.

PubMed

Levine, Michael; Moore, George E

2009-04-15

Gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV) is a life-threatening condition of mammals, with increased risk in large breed dogs. The study of its etiological factors is difficult due to the variety of possible living conditions. The association between meteorological events and the occurrence of GDV has been postulated but remains unclear. This study introduces the binary time series approach to the investigation of the possible meteorological risk factors for GDV. The data collected in a population of high-risk working dogs in Texas was used. Minimum and maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day of GDV event and the maximum daily atmospheric pressure on the day before the GDV event were positively associated with the probability of GDV. All of the odds/multiplicative factors of a day being GDV day were interpreted conditionally on the past GDV occurrences. There was minimal difference between the binary and Poisson general linear models. Time series modeling provided a novel method for evaluating the association between meteorological variables and GDV in a large population of dogs. Appropriate application of this method was enhanced by a common environment for the dogs and availability of meteorological data. The potential interaction between weather changes and patient risk factors for GDV deserves further investigation.

Association of risk factors with smoking during pregnancy among women of childbearing age: an epidemiological field study in Turkey.

PubMed

Nur, Naim

2017-01-01

Smoking during pregnancy is an important risk factor for maternal and infant health that is preventable. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with smoking behavior during pregnancy. A household-based probability sample survey of 1,510 women was conducted in the center of the city of Sivas, Turkey, between September 2013 and May 2014. The prevalence of smoking during pregnancy was estimated according to independent variables by means of regression analysis. The prevalence of smoking during pregnancy was 16.5%. Logistic regression showed that being at a relatively young age (odds ratio, OR = 1.92, P = 0.025 for 15-24 age group; and OR = 2.45, P = 0.001 for 25-34 age group), having a low educational level (OR = 1.76, P = 0.032), being unmarried (OR = 1.48, P = 0.002) and living in an extended family (OR = 1.98, P = 0.009) were the factors associated with the risk of smoking during pregnancy. Systematic attention should be paid to socioeconomic inequalities, to support women towards quitting smoking before or at an early stage of their pregnancies. Younger women and particularly those in lower socioeconomic groups should be targeted. This will lead to better pregnancy status, especially among young women.

Preconception gynecological risk factors of postpartum depression among Japanese women: The Japan Environment and Children's Study (JECS).

PubMed

Muchanga, Sifa Marie Joelle; Yasumitsu-Lovell, Kahoko; Eitoku, Masamitsu; Mbelambela, Etongola Papy; Ninomiya, Hitoshi; Komori, Kaori; Tozin, Rahma; Maeda, Nagamasa; Fujieda, Mikiya; Suganuma, Narufumi

2017-08-01

Postpartum depression is one of the major causes of disability among women who are on their childbearing years. Identifying people at risk of postpartum depression may improve its management. The objective of this study was to determine the probable association between postpartum depression and some preconception gynecological morbidities. Data from a nationwide birth cohort study, the Japan Environment and Children's study (JECS), up to one month of postpartum were analyzed. To assess postpartum depression, the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was used; 11 preconception gynecological morbidities were considered as risk factors. Covariates included psychiatric illness history, psychosocial factors, some pregnancy adverse outcomes, birth outcomes, socio-demographic and health behavioral factors. Except for the prevalence of previous miscarriage, leiomyoma and polycystic ovarian syndrome, depressive women had more gynecological morbidities compared to non-depressive ones. In logistic regression model, endometriosis (OR, 1.27; 95%CI: 1.15-1.41), dysmenorrhea (OR, 1.13; 95%CI: 1.06-1.21) and abnormal uterine bleeding (OR, 1.21; 95%CI: 1.15-1.29) were associated with postpartum depression. CONCLUSION: Women with endometriosis and menstrual problems were at risk of developing postpartum depression. This study suggests a perinatal mental health screening for predisposed women. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.