Source Region and Growth Analysis of Narrowband Z-mode Emission at Saturn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menietti, J. D.; Pisa, D.; Santolik, O.; Ye, S.; Arridge, C. S.; Coates, A. J.

2015-12-01

Z-mode intensity levels can be significant in the lower density region near the inner edge of the Enceladus torus at Saturn, where these waves may resonate with electrons at MeV energies. The source mechanism of this emission, which is narrow banded and most intense near 5 kHz, is not yet well understood. We survey the Cassini Radio and Plasma Wave Science (RPWS) data to isolate several probable source regions. Electron phase space distributions are obtained from the Cassini Electron Spectrometer (ELS), a part of the Cassini Plasma Spectrometer (CAPS) investigation. These data are analyzed in seeking the wave source mechanism, free energy source and growth rate of Z-mode observations. We present the first results of our analysis.

Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gyenge, N.; Kiss, T. S.; Erdélyi, R.

The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize the probability of the occurrence of an energetic event, such asmore » a solar flare or CME. The second morphological property is the sunspot tilt angle. The tilt angle of sunspot groups allows us to estimate the helicity of active regions. The increased helicity leads to a more complex buildup of the magnetic structure and also can cause CME eruption. We found that the most complex active regions appear near the AL and that the AL itself is associated with the most tilted active regions. Therefore, the number of CME occurrences is higher within the AL. The origin of the fast CMEs is also found to be associated with this region. We concluded that the source of the most probably CME-capable active regions is at the AL. By applying this method, we can potentially forecast a flare and/or CME source several Carrington rotations in advance. This finding also provides new information for solar dynamo modeling.« less

Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyenge, N.; Singh, T.; Kiss, T. S.; Srivastava, A. K.; Erdélyi, R.

2017-03-01

The spatial inhomogeneity of the distribution of coronal mass ejection (CME) occurrences in the solar atmosphere could provide a tool to estimate the longitudinal position of the most probable CME-capable active regions in the Sun. The anomaly in the longitudinal distribution of active regions themselves is often referred to as active longitude (AL). In order to reveal the connection between the AL and CME spatial occurrences, here we investigate the morphological properties of active regions. The first morphological property studied is the separateness parameter, which is able to characterize the probability of the occurrence of an energetic event, such as a solar flare or CME. The second morphological property is the sunspot tilt angle. The tilt angle of sunspot groups allows us to estimate the helicity of active regions. The increased helicity leads to a more complex buildup of the magnetic structure and also can cause CME eruption. We found that the most complex active regions appear near the AL and that the AL itself is associated with the most tilted active regions. Therefore, the number of CME occurrences is higher within the AL. The origin of the fast CMEs is also found to be associated with this region. We concluded that the source of the most probably CME-capable active regions is at the AL. By applying this method, we can potentially forecast a flare and/or CME source several Carrington rotations in advance. This finding also provides new information for solar dynamo modeling.

Earthquake hazard analysis for the different regions in and around Aǧrı

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayrak, Erdem; Yilmaz, Şeyda; Bayrak, Yusuf

2016-04-01

We investigated earthquake hazard parameters for Eastern part of Turkey by determining the a and b parameters in a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship. For this purpose, study area is divided into seven different source zones based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The database used in this work was taken from different sources and catalogues such as TURKNET, International Seismological Centre (ISC), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for instrumental period. We calculated the a value, b value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship, from the maximum likelihood method (ML). Also, we estimated the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence for an earthquake magnitude ≥ M during a time span of t-years. We used Zmap software to calculate these parameters. The lowest b value was calculated in Region 1 covered Cobandede Fault Zone. We obtain the highest a value in Region 2 covered Kagizman Fault Zone. This conclusion is strongly supported from the probability value, which shows the largest value (87%) for an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 6.0. The mean return period for such a magnitude is the lowest in this region (49-years). The most probable magnitude in the next 100 years was calculated and we determined the highest value around Cobandede Fault Zone. According to these parameters, Region 1 covered the Cobandede Fault Zone and is the most dangerous area around the Eastern part of Turkey.

A discussion of the H-alpha filamentary nebulae and galactic structure in the Cygnus region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthews, T. A.; Simonson, S. C., III

1971-01-01

From observation of the galactic structure in Cygnus, the system of filamentary nebulae was found to lie at a distance of roughly 1.5 kpc, in the same region as about half the thermal radio sources in Cygnus X, the supernova remnant near gamma Cygni, and the association Cygnus OB2, in the direction of which the X-ray source Cygnus XR-3 is observed. The source of excitation was probably the pulse of radiation from a supernova explosion, as proposed in the case of Gum nebula. However continuing excitation by early stars in the region of Cygnus X cannot be excluded.

Influence of anthropogenic activities on PAHs in sediments in a significant gulf of low-latitude developing regions, the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea: distribution, sources, inventory and probability risk.

PubMed

Li, Pingyang; Xue, Rui; Wang, Yinghui; Zhang, Ruijie; Zhang, Gan

2015-01-15

Fifteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 41 surface sediment samples and a sediment core (50 cm) from the Beibu Gulf, a significant low-latitude developing gulf, were analyzed. PAHs concentrations were 3.01-388 ng g(-)(1) (mean 95.5 ng g(-)(1)) in the surface sediments and 10.5-87.1 ng g(-)(1) (average 41.1 ng g(-)(1)) in the sediment core. Source apportionment indicated that PAHs were generated from coke production and vehicular emissions (39.4%), coal and biomass combustion (35.8%), and petrogenic sources (24.8%). PAHs were mainly concentrated in the industrialized and urbanized regions and the harbor, and were transported by atmospheric deposition to the marine matrix. The mass inventory (1.57-2.62t) and probability risk showed sediments here served as an important reservoir but low PAH risk. Different from oil and natural gas in developed regions, coal combustion has always been a significant energy consumption pattern in this developing region for the past 30 years (56 ± 5%). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Network Algorithms for Detection of Radiation Sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; Brooks, Richard R; Wu, Qishi

In support of national defense, Domestic Nuclear Detection Office s (DNDO) Intelligent Radiation Sensor Systems (IRSS) program supported the development of networks of radiation counters for detecting, localizing and identifying low-level, hazardous radiation sources. Industry teams developed the first generation of such networks with tens of counters, and demonstrated several of their capabilities in indoor and outdoor characterization tests. Subsequently, these test measurements have been used in algorithm replays using various sub-networks of counters. Test measurements combined with algorithm outputs are used to extract Key Measurements and Benchmark (KMB) datasets. We present two selective analyses of these datasets: (a) amore » notional border monitoring scenario that highlights the benefits of a network of counters compared to individual detectors, and (b) new insights into the Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) detection method, which lead to its adaptations for improved detection. Using KMB datasets from an outdoor test, we construct a notional border monitoring scenario, wherein twelve 2 *2 NaI detectors are deployed on the periphery of 21*21meter square region. A Cs-137 (175 uCi) source is moved across this region, starting several meters from outside and finally moving away. The measurements from individual counters and the network were processed using replays of a particle filter algorithm developed under IRSS program. The algorithm outputs from KMB datasets clearly illustrate the benefits of combining measurements from all networked counters: the source was detected before it entered the region, during its trajectory inside, and until it moved several meters away. When individual counters are used for detection, the source was detected for much shorter durations, and sometimes was missed in the interior region. The application of SPRT for detecting radiation sources requires choosing the detection threshold, which in turn requires a source strength estimate, typically specified as a multiplier of the background radiation level. A judicious selection of this source multiplier is essential to achieve optimal detection probability at a specified false alarm rate. Typically, this threshold is chosen from the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) by varying the source multiplier estimate. ROC is expected to have a monotonically increasing profile between the detection probability and false alarm rate. We derived ROCs for multiple indoor tests using KMB datasets, which revealed an unexpected loop shape: as the multiplier increases, detection probability and false alarm rate both increase until a limit, and then both contract. Consequently, two detection probabilities correspond to the same false alarm rate, and the higher is achieved at a lower multiplier, which is the desired operating point. Using the Chebyshev s inequality we analytically confirm this shape. Then, we present two improved network-SPRT methods by (a) using the threshold off-set as a weighting factor for the binary decisions from individual detectors in a weighted majority voting fusion rule, and (b) applying a composite SPRT derived using measurements from all counters.« less

The Einstein objective grating spectrometer survey of galactic binary X-ray sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vrtilek, S. D.; Mcclintock, J. E.; Seward, F. D.; Kahn, S. M.; Wargelin, B. J.

1991-01-01

The results of observations of 22 bright Galactic X-ray point sources are presented, and the most reliable measurements to date of X-ray column densities to these sources are derived. The results are consistent with the idea that some of the objects have a component of column density intrinsic to the source in addition to an interstellar component. The K-edge absorption due to oxygen is clearly detected in 10 of the sources and the Fe L and Ne K edges are detected in a few. The spectra probably reflect emission originating in a collisionally excited region combined with emission from a photoionized region excited directly by the central source.

Incorporating expert judgments in utility evaluation of bacteroidales qPCR assays for microbial source tracking in a drinking water source.

PubMed

Åström, Johan; Pettersson, Thomas J R; Reischer, Georg H; Norberg, Tommy; Hermansson, Malte

2015-02-03

Several assays for the detection of host-specific genetic markers of the order Bacteroidales have been developed and used for microbial source tracking (MST) in environmental waters. It is recognized that the source-sensitivity and source-specificity are unknown and variable when introducing these assays in new geographic regions, which reduces their reliability and use. A Bayesian approach was developed to incorporate expert judgments with regional assay sensitivity and specificity assessments in a utility evaluation of a human and a ruminant-specific qPCR assay for MST in a drinking water source. Water samples from Lake Rådasjön were analyzed for E. coli, intestinal enterococci and somatic coliphages through cultivation and for human (BacH) and ruminant-specific (BacR) markers through qPCR assays. Expert judgments were collected regarding the probability of human and ruminant fecal contamination based on fecal indicator organism data and subjective information. Using Bayes formula, the conditional probability of a true human or ruminant fecal contamination given the presence of BacH or BacR was determined stochastically from expert judgments and regional qPCR assay performance, using Beta distributions to represent uncertainties. A web-based computational tool was developed for the procedure, which provides a measure of confidence to findings of host-specific markers and demonstrates the information value from these assays.

Incorporating Expert Judgments in Utility Evaluation of Bacteroidales qPCR Assays for Microbial Source Tracking in a Drinking Water Source

PubMed Central

Åström, Johan; Pettersson, Thomas J. R.; Reischer, Georg H.; Norberg, Tommy; Hermansson, Malte

2017-01-01

Several assays for the detection of host-specific genetic markers of the order Bacteroidales have been developed and used for microbial source tracking (MST) in environmental waters. It is recognized that the source-sensitivity and source-specificity are unknown and variable when introducing these assays in new geographic regions, which reduces their reliability and use. A Bayesian approach was developed to incorporate expert judgments with regional assay sensitivity and specificity assessments in a utility evaluation of a human and a ruminant-specific qPCR assay for MST in a drinking water source. Water samples from Lake Rådasjön were analyzed for E. coli, intestinal enterococci and somatic coliphages through cultivation and for human (BacH) and ruminant-specific (BacR) markers through qPCR assays. Expert judgments were collected regarding the probability of human and ruminant fecal contamination based on fecal indicator organism data and subjective information. Using Bayes formula, the conditional probability of a true human or ruminant fecal contamination given the presence of BacH or BacR was determined stochastically from expert judgments and regional qPCR assay performance, using Beta distributions to represent uncertainties. A web-based computational tool was developed for the procedure, which provides a measure of confidence to findings of host-specific markers and demonstrates the information value from these assays. PMID:25545113

Single photon source with individualized single photon certifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migdall, Alan L.; Branning, David A.; Castelletto, Stefania; Ware, M.

2002-12-01

As currently implemented, single-photon sources cannot be made to produce single photons with high probability, while simultaneously suppressing the probability of yielding two or more photons. Because of this, single photon sources cannot really produce single photons on demand. We describe a multiplexed system that allows the probabilities of producing one and more photons to be adjusted independently, enabling a much better approximation of a source of single photons on demand. The scheme uses a heralded photon source based on parametric downconversion, but by effectively breaking the trigger detector area into multiple regions, we are able to extract more information about a heralded photon than is possible with a conventional arrangement. This scheme allows photons to be produced along with a quantitative 'certification' that they are single photons. Some of the single-photon certifications can be significantly better than what is possible with conventional downconversion sources, as well as being better than faint laser sources. With such a source of more tightly certified single photons, it should be possible to improve the maximum secure bit rate possible over a quantum cryptographic link. We present an analysis of the relative merits of this method over the conventional arrangement.

Detection of radio continuum emission from Herbig-Haro objects 1 and 2 and from their central exciting source

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pravdo, S. H.; Rodriguez, L. F.; Curiel, S.; Canto, J.; Torrelles, J. M.; Becker, R. H.; Sellgren, K.

1985-01-01

The region in Orion containing HH 1 and HH 2 was observed with the VLA at 20, 6, and 2 cm on several occasions from 1981 to 1984. At lower resolution, four continuum sources were detected. Two of these sources coincide positionally with HH 1 and HH 2. At 6 cm and higher resolution, HH 1 is resolved into at least two components. The emission is probably bremsstrahlung originating in the same region where the visible line emission is produced. This is the first detection of radio continuum from classic Herbig-Haro objects. At a position closely centered between HH 1 and HH 2, an object that can be interpreted as the energy source of the system was detected. The central source spectrum is S(nu) of about nu to the alpha power, where alpha = 0.4 + or - 0.2, suggesting a stellar wind. Finally, the fourth radio continuum source coincides positionally with an H2O maser and is probably excited by an independent star. There is evidence of time variability in its radio flux. No emission was detected from the Cohen-Schwartz (1979) star at the 0.1 mJy level.

Maximizing the Detection Probability of Kilonovae Associated with Gravitational Wave Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Man Leong; Hu, Yi-Ming; Messenger, Chris; Hendry, Martin; Heng, Ik Siong

2017-01-01

Estimates of the source sky location for gravitational wave signals are likely to span areas of up to hundreds of square degrees or more, making it very challenging for most telescopes to search for counterpart signals in the electromagnetic spectrum. To boost the chance of successfully observing such counterparts, we have developed an algorithm that optimizes the number of observing fields and their corresponding time allocations by maximizing the detection probability. As a proof-of-concept demonstration, we optimize follow-up observations targeting kilonovae using telescopes including the CTIO-Dark Energy Camera, Subaru-HyperSuprimeCam, Pan-STARRS, and the Palomar Transient Factory. We consider three simulated gravitational wave events with 90% credible error regions spanning areas from ∼ 30 {\\deg }2 to ∼ 300 {\\deg }2. Assuming a source at 200 {Mpc}, we demonstrate that to obtain a maximum detection probability, there is an optimized number of fields for any particular event that a telescope should observe. To inform future telescope design studies, we present the maximum detection probability and corresponding number of observing fields for a combination of limiting magnitudes and fields of view over a range of parameters. We show that for large gravitational wave error regions, telescope sensitivity rather than field of view is the dominating factor in maximizing the detection probability.

REGIONAL-SCALE FISH ECOLOGY IN NORTHEASTERN USA LAKES USING A PROBABILITY-BASED SURVEY DESIGN

EPA Science Inventory

Historically, most fish ecology has been done at local scales. As these data accumulate, the need to set this knowledge into landscape, regional, and historical context grows. There are important broad-scale issues (e.g., non-point source pollution, biodiversity loss, alien spe...

Searching for Compact Radio Sources Associated with UCH ii Regions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Masqué, Josep M.; Trinidad, Miguel A.; Rodríguez-Rico, Carlos A.

Ultra-compact (UC)H ii regions represent a very early stage of massive star formation. The structure and evolution of these regions are not yet fully understood. Interferometric observations showed in recent years that compact sources of uncertain nature are associated with some UCH ii regions. To examine this, we carried out VLA 1.3 cm observations in the A configuration of selected UCH ii regions in order to report additional cases of compact sources embedded in UCH ii regions. With these observations, we find 13 compact sources that are associated with 9 UCH ii regions. Although we cannot establish an unambiguous naturemore » for the newly detected sources, we assess some of their observational properties. According to the results, we can distinguish between two types of compact sources. One type corresponds to sources that are probably deeply embedded in the dense ionized gas of the UCH ii region. These sources are photoevaporated by the exciting star of the region and will last for 10{sup 4}–10{sup 5} years. They may play a crucial role in the evolution of the UCH ii region as the photoevaporated material could replenish the expanding plasma and might provide a solution to the so-called lifetime problem of these regions. The second type of compact sources is not associated with the densest ionized gas of the region. A few of these sources appear resolved and may be photoevaporating objects such as those of the first type, but with significantly lower mass depletion rates. The remaining sources of this second type appear unresolved, and their properties are varied. We speculate on the similarity between the sources of the second type and those of the Orion population of radio sources.« less

Earthquake hazard analysis for the different regions in and around Ağrı

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr

We investigated earthquake hazard parameters for Eastern part of Turkey by determining the a and b parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship. For this purpose, study area is divided into seven different source zones based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The database used in this work was taken from different sources and catalogues such as TURKNET, International Seismological Centre (ISC), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for instrumental period. We calculated the a value, b value, which is the slope of the frequency–magnitude Gutenberg–Richter relationship, from the maximum likelihoodmore » method (ML). Also, we estimated the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence for an earthquake magnitude ≥ M during a time span of t-years. We used Zmap software to calculate these parameters. The lowest b value was calculated in Region 1 covered Cobandede Fault Zone. We obtain the highest a value in Region 2 covered Kagizman Fault Zone. This conclusion is strongly supported from the probability value, which shows the largest value (87%) for an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 6.0. The mean return period for such a magnitude is the lowest in this region (49-years). The most probable magnitude in the next 100 years was calculated and we determined the highest value around Cobandede Fault Zone. According to these parameters, Region 1 covered the Cobandede Fault Zone and is the most dangerous area around the Eastern part of Turkey.« less

Infrared observations of OB star formation in NGC 6334

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, P. M.; Gatley, I.

1982-01-01

Infrared photometry and maps from 2 to 100 microns are presented for three of the principal far infrared sources in NGC 6334. Each region is powered by two or more very young stars. The distribution of dust and ionized gas is probably strongly affected by the presence of the embedded stars; one of the sources is a blister H II region, another has a bipolar structure, and the third exhibits asymmetric temperature structure. The presence of protostellar objects throughout the region suggests that star formation has occurred nearly simultaneously in the whole molecular cloud rather than having been triggered sequentially from within.

Cenozoic erosion of the Transantarctic Mountains: A source-to-sink thermochronological study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zattin, M.; Pace, D.; Andreucci, B.; Rossetti, F.; Talarico, F. M.

2014-09-01

The formation of the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) is strictly related to the evolution of the West Antarctic Rift system, but the timing of their exhumation is still not fully assessed. In this work, we provide new apatite fission-track data collected on the region between the Royal Society Range and the Britannia Range. Cooling ages are late Eocene-Oligocene in the center of the region but they get older both northwards and southwards. We infer that exhumation was strictly controlled by TAM-parallel fault strands that were active after the Oligocene. The Royal Society Range and the Britannia Range represent transition zones corresponding to transverse structures, probably inherited from early basement crustal discontinuities and reactivated as transfer regions during rift propagation. The exhumation of the investigated region has been then modeled and predicted thermochronological ages have been compared with detrital data from the Miocene sedimentary succession drilled in the Victoria Land Basin. Results indicate that this sector of the TAM is the most probable candidate for the source of sediments and that during the Neogene 3 km (but up to 5 km) of rocks was exhumed.

Comparative dynamics of avian communities across edges and interiors of North American ecoregions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Hines, J.E.

2006-01-01

Aim Based on a priori hypotheses, we developed predictions about how avian communities might differ at the edges vs. interiors of ecoregions. Specifically, we predicted lower species richness and greater local turnover and extinction probabilities for regional edges. We tested these predictions using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data across nine ecoregions over a 20-year time period. Location Data from 2238 BBS routes within nine ecoregions of the United States were used. Methods The estimation methods used accounted for species detection probabilities < 1. Parameter estimates for species richness, local turnover and extinction probabilities were obtained using the program COMDYN. We examined the difference in community-level parameters estimated from within exterior edges (the habitat interface between ecoregions), interior edges (the habitat interface between two bird conservation regions within the same ecoregion) and interior (habitat excluding interfaces). General linear models were constructed to examine sources of variation in community parameters for five ecoregions (containing all three habitat types) and all nine ecoregions (containing two habitat types). Results Analyses provided evidence that interior habitats and interior edges had on average higher bird species richness than exterior edges, providing some evidence of reduced species richness near habitat edges. Lower average extinction probabilities and turnover rates in interior habitats (five-region analysis) provided some support for our predictions about these quantities. However, analyses directed at all three response variables, i.e. species richness, local turnover, and local extinction probability, provided evidence of an interaction between habitat and region, indicating that the relationships did not hold in all regions. Main conclusions The overall predictions of lower species richness, higher local turnover and extinction probabilities in regional edge habitats, as opposed to interior habitats, were generally supported. However, these predicted tendencies did not hold in all regions.

Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon

2006-01-01

Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions adopted in the loss calculations. This is a sensitivity study aimed at future regional earthquake source modelers, so that they may be informed of the effects on loss introduced by modeling assumptions and epistemic uncertainty in the WG02 earthquake source model.

Outflow and Infall in Star-forming Region L1221

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Chin-Fei; Ho, Paul T. P.

2005-10-01

We have mapped the 3.3 mm continuum, CO, HCO+, N2H+, and CS emission around a nearby Class I source, IRAS 22266+6845, in the L1221 cometary dark cloud. L1221 is a complicated star-forming region. It hosts three infrared sources: a close binary consisting of an east source and a west source around the IRAS source position and a southeast source ~45" to the southeast (T. Bourke 2004, private communication). The east source is identified as the IRAS source. Continuum emission is seen around the east and southeast sources, probably tracing the dust around them. No continuum emission is seen toward the west source, probably indicating that there is not much dust there. An east-west molecular outflow is seen in CO, HCO+, and CS originated from around the binary. It is bipolar with an east lobe and a west lobe, both appearing as a wide-opening outflow shell originated from around the binary. It is likely powered by the east source, which shows a southeast extension along the outflow axis in the K' image. A ringlike envelope is seen in N2H+ around the binary surrounding the outflow waist. It is tilted with the major axis perpendicular to the outflow axis. The kinematics is well reproduced by a thin-disk model with both infall and rotation, and a column density peak in a ring. The ringlike envelope is not rotationally supported, as the rotation velocity is smaller than the infall velocity.

Source-receptor probability of atmospheric long-distance dispersal of viruses to Israel from the eastern Mediterranean area.

PubMed

Klausner, Z; Klement, E; Fattal, E

2018-02-01

Viruses that affect the health of humans and farm animals can spread over long distances via atmospheric mechanisms. The phenomenon of atmospheric long-distance dispersal (LDD) is associated with severe consequences because it may introduce pathogens into new areas. The introduction of new pathogens to Israel was attributed to LDD events numerous times. This provided the motivation for this study which is aimed to identify all the locations in the eastern Mediterranean that may serve as sources for pathogen incursion into Israel via LDD. This aim was achieved by calculating source-receptor relationship probability maps. These maps describe the probability that an infected vector or viral aerosol, once airborne, will have an atmospheric route that can transport it to a distant location. The resultant probability maps demonstrate a seasonal tendency in the probability of specific areas to serve as sources for pathogen LDD into Israel. Specifically, Cyprus' season is the summer; southern Turkey and the Greek islands of Crete, Karpathos and Rhodes are associated with spring and summer; lower Egypt and Jordan may serve as sources all year round, except the summer months. The method used in this study can easily be implemented to any other geographic region. The importance of this study is the ability to provide a climatologically valid and accurate risk assessment tool to support long-term decisions regarding preparatory actions for future outbreaks long before a specific outbreak occurs. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Latitude Dependence of Low-Altitude O+ Ion Upflow: Statistical Results From FAST Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, K.; Chen, K. W.; Jiang, Y.; Chen, W. J.; Huang, L. F.; Fu, S.

2017-09-01

We introduce a statistical model to explain the latitudinal dependence of the occurrence rate and energy flux of the ionospheric escaping ions, taking advantage of advances in the spatial coverage and accuracy of FAST observations. We use a weighted piecewise Gaussian function to fit the dependence, because two probability peaks are located in the dayside polar cusp source region and the nightside auroral oval zone source region. The statistical results show that (1) the Gaussian Mixture Model suitably describes the dayside polar cusp upflows, and the dayside and the nightside auroral oval zone upflows. (2) The magnetic latitudes of the ionospheric upflow source regions expand toward the magnetic equator as Kp increases, from 81° magnetic latitude (MLAT) (cusp upflows) and 63° MLAT (auroral oval upflows) during quiet times to 76° MLAT and 61° MLAT, respectively. (3) The dayside polar cusp region provides only 3-5% O+ upflows among all the source regions, which include the dayside auroral oval zone, dayside polar cusp, nightside auroral oval zone, and even the polar cap. However, observations show that more than 70% of upflows occur in the auroral oval zone and that the occurrence probability increases at the altitudes of 3500-4200 km, which is considered to be the lower altitude boundary of ion beams. This observed result suggests that soft electron precipitation and transverse wave heating are the most efficient ion energization/acceleration mechanisms at the altitudes of FAST orbit, and that the parallel acceleration caused by field-aligned potential drops becomes effective above that altitude.

Active star formation in NGC 2264

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, P. R.; Thronson, H. A., Jr.; Odenwald, S. F.; Glaccum, W.; Loewenstein, R. F.; Wolf, G.

1985-01-01

The region of NGC 2264 near the cone nebula is the site of active star formation in a rotating ring seen nearly edge on as a two lobed source. Allen's infrared source (IRS 1) surrounds a B3V star still embedded in the southern lobe of the cloud. The northern lobe, IRS 2, also probably contains young stars.

Genetic variation in blue spruce: A test of populations in Nebraska

Treesearch

David F. Van Haverbeke

1984-01-01

Analyses of 43 blue spruce populations at age 12 (9 years in the field) revealed significant differences among populations for survival, height, vigor, crown diameter, frost injury, and foliage color. Use of regions increases the probability of locating better seeds sources, but high variability among individual populations within regions limits their value in...

OBSERVATION OF TeV GAMMA RAYS FROM THE FERMI BRIGHT GALACTIC SOURCES WITH THE TIBET AIR SHOWER ARRAY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amenomori, M.; Bi, X. J.; Ding, L. K.

2010-01-20

Using the Tibet-III air shower array, we search for TeV {gamma}-rays from 27 potential Galactic sources in the early list of bright sources obtained by the Fermi Large Area Telescope at energies above 100 MeV. Among them, we observe seven sources instead of the expected 0.61 sources at a significance of 2{sigma} or more excess. The chance probability from Poisson statistics would be estimated to be 3.8 x 10{sup -6}. If the excess distribution observed by the Tibet-III array has a density gradient toward the Galactic plane, the expected number of sources may be enhanced in chance association. Then, themore » chance probability rises slightly, to 1.2 x 10{sup -5}, based on a simple Monte Carlo simulation. These low chance probabilities clearly show that the Fermi bright Galactic sources have statistically significant correlations with TeV {gamma}-ray excesses. We also find that all seven sources are associated with pulsars, and six of them are coincident with sources detected by the Milagro experiment at a significance of 3{sigma} or more at the representative energy of 35 TeV. The significance maps observed by the Tibet-III air shower array around the Fermi sources, which are coincident with the Milagro {>=}3{sigma} sources, are consistent with the Milagro observations. This is the first result of the northern sky survey of the Fermi bright Galactic sources in the TeV region.« less

Supplementary report on the ground-water supplies of the Atlantic City region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barksdale, Henry C.; Sundstrom, Raymond W.; Brunstein, Maurice S.

1936-01-01

At present more potable water is taken from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand than from any other source of supply for the region. This sand is the sole source for some of the smaller communities on the barrier beaches. The original static head of the water in it at Atlantic City was between 20 and 25 feet above sea level. The head has been lowered more than 50 feet over much of the region,  and in parts of Atlantic City it has been lowered considerably more than 100 feet. A consideration of the principles governing the relation between salt water and fresh water in water-bearing sands indicates that the 800-foot sand probably contained salt water at a distance of 5 or 10 miles out from Atlantic City before any water was pumped from it. The evidence collected in this investigation indicates that the cone of depression created by the pumping from this sand in the Atlantic City region has probably extended inland to the intake area of the sand, the nearest part of which is probably about 40 miles from Atlantic City. If this is so, the conclusion is almost inescapable that it has also extended oceanward for a distance considerably greater than the 5 or 10 miles to the original zone of contact between the fresh and salt waters, and that salt water is probably being drawn toward the Atlantic City region through this sand. The time of its arrival will depend primarily upon the rate of pumping in the region and upon how much of the fresh water that originally lay between the region and the zone of contact must be removed before the salt water can reach the region. It may arrive in the near future if it advances in the form of a narrow tongue. On the other hand, if it advances along a broader front; so that more of the intervening fresh water must be pumped out of the formation, its arrival may be delayed for some time.

WESTERN AIRBORNE CONTAMINANTS ASSESSMENT PROJECT RESEARCH PLAN

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of the Western Airborne Contaminants Assessment Project (WACAP) is to assess the deposition of airborne contaminants in Western National Parks, providing regional and local information on exposure, accumulation, impacts, and probable sources. This project is being desig...

The fields of mean concentration in potential sources of ammonium sulphate, ammonium nitrate and natural silicates for the west of Moscow region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukurov, K. A.; Shukurova, L. M.

2017-11-01

According to measurements in 2002-2015 of concentrations of ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulfate and natural silicates in aerosol samples with particles in the range of 1-2 μm in diameter at the Zvenigorod scientific station (55.7° N, 36.8° E) of the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences and simulation of backward trajectories of air parcels using the trajectory model NOAA HYSPLIT_4 by means of CWT (concentration weighted trajectory) method, the average fields of capacity (in unit of concentration) of potential sources of these admixtures and their sum for the west of Moscow region were obtained. The patterns of large-scale atmospheric circulation, which favoring the transfer of these admixtures from their regions of the most probable potential sources to the western Moscow region, are analyzed.

A new approach to geographic partitioning of probabilistic seismic hazard using seismic source distance with earthquake extreme and perceptibility statistics: an application to the southern Balkan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayliss, T. J.

2016-02-01

The southeastern European cities of Sofia and Thessaloniki are explored as example site-specific scenarios by geographically zoning their individual localized seismic sources based on the highest probabilities of magnitude exceedance. This is with the aim of determining the major components contributing to each city's seismic hazard. Discrete contributions from the selected input earthquake catalogue are investigated to determine those areas that dominate each city's prevailing seismic hazard with respect to magnitude and source-to-site distance. This work is based on an earthquake catalogue developed and described in a previously published paper by the author and components of a magnitude probability density function. Binned magnitude and distance classes are defined using a joint magnitude-distance distribution. The prevailing seismicity to each city-as defined by a child data set extracted from the parent earthquake catalogue for each city considered-is divided into distinct constrained data bins of small discrete magnitude and source-to-site distance intervals. These are then used to describe seismic hazard in terms of uni-variate modal values; that is, M* and D* which are the modal magnitude and modal source-to-site distance in each city's local historical seismicity. This work highlights that Sofia's dominating seismic hazard-that is, the modal magnitudes possessing the highest probabilities of occurrence-is located in zones confined to two regions at 60-80 km and 170-180 km from this city, for magnitude intervals of 5.75-6.00 Mw and 6.00-6.25 Mw respectively. Similarly, Thessaloniki appears prone to highest levels of hazard over a wider epicentral distance interval, from 80 to 200 km in the moment magnitude range 6.00-6.25 Mw.

Real-time Estimation of Fault Rupture Extent for Recent Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

2009-12-01

Current earthquake early warning systems assume point source models for the rupture. However, for large earthquakes, the fault rupture length can be of the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, and the prediction of ground motion at a site requires the approximated knowledge of the rupture geometry. Early warning information based on a point source model may underestimate the ground motion at a site, if a station is close to the fault but distant from the epicenter. We developed an empirical function to classify seismic records into near-source (NS) or far-source (FS) records based on the past strong motion records (Yamada et al., 2007). Here, we defined the near-source region as an area with a fault rupture distance less than 10km. If we have ground motion records at a station, the probability that the station is located in the near-source region is; P = 1/(1+exp(-f)) f = 6.046log10(Za) + 7.885log10(Hv) - 27.091 where Za and Hv denote the peak values of the vertical acceleration and horizontal velocity, respectively. Each observation provides the probability that the station is located in near-source region, so the resolution of the proposed method depends on the station density. The information of the fault rupture location is a group of points where the stations are located. However, for practical purposes, the 2-dimensional configuration of the fault is required to compute the ground motion at a site. In this study, we extend the methodology of NS/FS classification to characterize 2-dimensional fault geometries and apply them to strong motion data observed in recent large earthquakes. We apply a cosine-shaped smoothing function to the probability distribution of near-source stations, and convert the point fault location to 2-dimensional fault information. The estimated rupture geometry for the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake 10 seconds after the origin time is shown in Figure 1. Furthermore, we illustrate our method with strong motion data of the 2007 Noto-hanto earthquake, 2008 Iwate-Miyagi earthquake, and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The on-going rupture extent can be estimated for all datasets as the rupture propagates. For earthquakes with magnitude about 7.0, the determination of the fault parameters converges to the final geometry within 10 seconds.

Oils and hydrocarbon source rocks of the Baltic syneclise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kanev, S.; Margulis, L.; Bojesen-Koefoed, J.A.

Prolific source rock horizons of varying thickness, having considerable areal extent, occur over the Baltic syneclise. These source sediments are rich and have excellent petroleum generation potential. Their state of thermal maturity varies form immature in the northeastern part of the syneclise to peak generation maturity in the southwestern part of the region-the main kitchen area. These maturity variations are manifest in petroleum composition in the region. Hence, mature oils occur in the Polish and Kaliningrad areas, immature oils in small accumulations in Latvian and central Lithuanian onshore areas, and intermediate oils in areas between these extremes. The oil accumulationsmore » probably result from pooling of petroleum generated from a number of different source rocks at varying levels of thermal maturity. Hence, no single source for petroleum occurrences in the Baltic syneclise may be identified. The paper describes the baltic syneclise, source rocks, thermal maturity and oils and extracts.« less

PMF and PSCF based source apportionment of PM2.5 at a regional background site in North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zong, Zheng; Wang, Xiaoping; Tian, Chongguo; Chen, Yingjun; Fu, Shanfei; Qu, Lin; Ji, Ling; Li, Jun; Zhang, Gan

2018-05-01

To apportion regional PM2.5 (atmospheric particles with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm) source types and their geographic pattern in North China, 120 daily PM2.5 samples on Beihuangcheng Island (BH, a regional background site in North China) were collected from August 20th, 2014 to September 15th, 2015 showing one-year period. After the chemical analyses on carbonaceous species, water-soluble ions and inorganic elements, various approaches, such as Mann-Kendall test, chemical mass closure, ISORROPIA II model, Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) linked with Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF), were used to explore the PM2.5 speciation, sources, and source regions. Consequently, distinct seasonal variations of PM2.5 and its main species were found and could be explained by varying emission source characteristics. Based on PMF model, seven source factors for PM2.5 were identified, which were coal combustion + biomass burning, vehicle emission, mineral dust, ship emission, sea salt, industry source, refined chrome industry with the contribution of 48.21%, 30.33%, 7.24%, 6.63%, 3.51%, 3.2%, and 0.88%, respectively. In addition, PSCF analysis using the daily contribution of each factor from PMF result suggested that Shandong peninsula and Hebei province were identified as the high potential region for coal combustion + biomass burning; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region was the main source region for industry source; Bohai Sea and East China Sea were found to be of high source potential for ship emission; Geographical region located northwest of BH Island was possessed of high probability for sea salt; Mineral dust presumably came from the region of Mongolia; Refined chrome industry mostly came from Liaoning, Jilin province; The vehicle emission was primarily of BTH region origin, centring on metropolises, such as Beijing and Tianjin. These results provided precious implications for PM2.5 control strategies in North China.

The combined Fog Monitoring System of ARPAV over the Veneto Region, Po Valley - Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domenichini, F.; Rossa, A.; Zardini, F.; Monai, M.; Calza, M.; Della Valle, A.; Gaspari, V.

2010-07-01

The presence of fog is a frequent problem in the Po Valley. The consequent reduction in visibility has a strong impact on the road, air, ship and railway traffic. Both, fog monitoring and forecasting, constitute significant challenges, not least due to the high spatial and temporal variability of the phenomenon. ARPAV (Regional Agency for Environmental Prevention and Protection of Veneto) is the regional meteorological service of the north-eastern Italian region Veneto and, as such, is responsible for meteorological support to institutional and private users. Real-time visibility information over an extended area would represent an interesting product for road and transport safety. In the framework of the FP7 project Roadidea, (14 partners from 8 different countries, Dec 2007 - Aug 2010) on road safety and traffic control ARPAV developed pilot system for the fog monitoring. The main idea of this fog monitoring methodology is to merge information derived from different observation platforms, i.e. satellite low stratus cloud classification, direct visibility monitoring, statistical estimation of low visibility from meteorological parameters at the ground. This information is translated into probability maps of fog occurrence and information weight on a common grid (4x4 km) covering the flat portion of the region Veneto. These weights are used to combine the three data sources into the final fog probability map. A probabilistic verification applied to the fog monitoring product yields encouraging results, and is systematically more skillfull than the fog probabilities derived from the individual data sources. First real-time products are now available on the ARPAV Fog Pilot website for a group of specific users (motorway head office, road police, national railways and others) and are under testing.

Atmospheric speciated mercury concentrations on an island between China and Korea: sources and transport pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Gang-San; Kim, Pyung-Rae; Han, Young-Ji; Holsen, Thomas M.; Seo, Yong-Seok; Yi, Seung-Muk

2016-03-01

As a global pollutant, mercury (Hg) is of particular concern in East Asia, where anthropogenic emissions are the largest. In this study, speciated Hg concentrations were measured on Yongheung Island, the westernmost island in Korea, located between China and the Korean mainland to identify the importance of local and regional Hg sources. Various tools including correlations with other pollutants, conditional probability function, and back-trajectory-based analysis consistently indicated that Korean sources were important for gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) whereas, for total gaseous mercury (TGM) and particulate bound mercury (PBM), regional transport was also important. A trajectory cluster based approach, considering both Hg concentration and the fraction of time each cluster was impacting the site, was developed to quantify the effect of Korean sources and out-of-Korean sources. This analysis suggests that contributions from out-of-Korean sources were similar to Korean sources for TGM whereas Korean sources contributed slightly more to the concentration variations of GOM and PBM compared to out-of-Korean sources. The ratio of GOM/PBM decreased when the site was impacted by regional transport, suggesting that this ratio may be a useful tool for identifying the relative significance of local sources vs. regional transport. The secondary formation of PBM through gas-particle partitioning with GOM was found to be important at low temperatures and high relative humidity.

Circinus X-1: a Laboratory for Studying the Accretion Phenomenon in Compact Binary X-Ray Sources. Ph.D. Thesis - Maryland Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson-Saba, J. L.

1983-01-01

Observations of the binary X-ray source Circinus X-1 provide samples of a range of spectral and temporal behavior whose variety is thought to reflect a broad continuum of accretion conditions in an eccentric binary system. The data support an identification of three or more X-ray spectral components, probably associated with distinct emission regions.

An Enhanced Method for Scheduling Observations of Large Sky Error Regions for Finding Optical Counterparts to Transients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rana, Javed; Singhal, Akshat; Gadre, Bhooshan

2017-04-01

The discovery and subsequent study of optical counterparts to transient sources is crucial for their complete astrophysical understanding. Various gamma-ray burst (GRB) detectors, and more notably the ground-based gravitational wave detectors, typically have large uncertainties in the sky positions of detected sources. Searching these large sky regions spanning hundreds of square degrees is a formidable challenge for most ground-based optical telescopes, which can usually image less than tens of square degrees of the sky in a single night. We present algorithms for better scheduling of such follow-up observations in order to maximize the probability of imaging the optical counterpart, basedmore » on the all-sky probability distribution of the source position. We incorporate realistic observing constraints such as the diurnal cycle, telescope pointing limitations, available observing time, and the rising/setting of the target at the observatory’s location. We use simulations to demonstrate that our proposed algorithms outperform the default greedy observing schedule used by many observatories. Our algorithms are applicable for follow-up of other transient sources with large positional uncertainties, such as Fermi -detected GRBs, and can easily be adapted for scheduling radio or space-based X-ray follow-up.« less

New Herbig-Haro objects in the L1617 and L1646 dark clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Stecklum, B.; Henning, Th.

2005-07-01

Optical imaging towards L1617 and L1646 revealed three new Herbig-Haro (HH) objects, HH 182, 439, and 866. Spectroscopic observations of HH 182 A and 439 A confirmed their HH object nature. Molecular hydrogen v = 1-0 S(1) narrow band imaging revealed three H2 emission features in the HH 182 region which coincide with the optical emission. Based on the position angles of the different parts of the HH 111 flow and that of HH 182, HH 182 may be the outermost southeastern part of the giant HH 111 flow. One deeply embedded star is revealed in our near-infrared imaging of the HH 439 region. HH 439 A and the associated bow shock are probably driven by the newly detected embedded star. HH 439 B-D are probably driven by the Herbig AeBe star candidate GSC 04794-00827 (IRAS 06045-0554). The embedded source IRAS 06046-0603 is identified to be the exciting source of HH 866.

Regional Permafrost Probability Modelling in the northwestern Cordillera, 59°N - 61°N, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonnaventure, P. P.; Lewkowicz, A. G.

2010-12-01

High resolution (30 x 30 m) permafrost probability models were created for eight mountainous areas in the Yukon and northernmost British Columbia. Empirical-statistical modelling based on the Basal Temperature of Snow (BTS) method was used to develop spatial relationships. Model inputs include equivalent elevation (a variable that incorporates non-uniform temperature change with elevation), potential incoming solar radiation and slope. Probability relationships between predicted BTS and permafrost presence were developed for each area using late-summer physical observations in pits, or by using year-round ground temperature measurements. A high-resolution spatial model for the region has now been generated based on seven of the area models. Each was applied to the entire region, and their predictions were then blended based on a distance decay function from the model source area. The regional model is challenging to validate independently because there are few boreholes in the region. However, a comparison of results to a recently established inventory of rock glaciers for the Yukon suggests its validity because predicted permafrost probabilities were 0.8 or greater for almost 90% of these landforms. Furthermore, the regional model results have a similar spatial pattern to those modelled independently in the eighth area, although predicted probabilities using the regional model are generally higher. The regional model predicts that permafrost underlies about half of the non-glaciated terrain in the region, with probabilities increasing regionally from south to north and from east to west. Elevation is significant, but not always linked in a straightforward fashion because of weak or inverted trends in permafrost probability below treeline. Above treeline, however, permafrost probabilities increase and approach 1.0 in very high elevation areas throughout the study region. The regional model shows many similarities to previous Canadian permafrost maps (Heginbottom and Radburn, 1992; Heginbottom et al., 1995) but is several orders of magnitude more detailed. It also exhibits some significant differences, including the presence of an area of valley-floor continuous permafrost around Beaver Creek near the Alaskan border in the west, as well as higher probabilities of permafrost in the central parts of the region near the boundaries of the sporadic and extensive discontinuous zones. In addition, parts of the northernmost portion of the region would be classified as sporadic discontinuous permafrost because of inversions in the terrestrial surface lapse rate which cause permafrost probabilities to decrease with elevation through the forest. These model predictions are expected to of direct use for infrastructure planning and northern development and can serve as a benchmark for future studies of permafrost distribution in the Yukon. References Heginbottom JR, Dubreuil MA and Haker PT. 1995. Canada Permafrost. (1:7,500,000 scale). In The National Atlas of Canada, 5th Edition, sheet MCR 4177. Ottawa: National Resources Canada. Heginbottom, J.A. and Radburn, L.K. 1992. Permafrost and ground ice conditions of northwestern Canada; Geological Survey of Canada, Map 1691A, scale 1:1,000,000. Digitized by S. Smith, Geological Survey of Canada.

Developing an Event-Tree Probabilistic Tsunami Inundation Model for NE Atlantic Coasts: Application to a Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, R.; Matias, L.; Baptista, M. A.

2016-12-01

This study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth >0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment.

The optimal on-source region size for detections with counting-type telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klepser, S.

2017-03-01

Source detection in counting type experiments such as Cherenkov telescopes often involves the application of the classical Eq. (17) from the paper of Li & Ma (1983) to discrete on- and off-source regions. The on-source region is typically a circular area with radius θ in which the signal is expected to appear with the shape of the instrument point spread function (PSF). This paper addresses the question of what is the θ that maximises the probability of detection for a given PSF width and background event density. In the high count number limit and assuming a Gaussian PSF profile, the optimum is found to be at ζ∞2 ≈ 2.51 times the squared PSF width σPSF392. While this number is shown to be a good choice in many cases, a dynamic formula for cases of lower count numbers, which favour larger on-source regions, is given. The recipe to get to this parametrisation can also be applied to cases with a non-Gaussian PSF. This result can standardise and simplify analysis procedures, reduce trials and eliminate the need for experience-based ad hoc cut definitions or expensive case-by-case Monte Carlo simulations.

Low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Wiegand, Ute

2011-01-01

Low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities (ANEP), called probability-percent chance (P-percent chance) flow estimates, regional regression equations, and transfer methods are provided describing the low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams. Statistical methods are used to evaluate streamflow data. Analysis of Virginia streamflow data collected from 1895 through 2007 is summarized. Methods are provided for estimating low-flow characteristics of gaged and ungaged streams. The 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average streamgaging station low-flow characteristics for 290 long-term, continuous-record, streamgaging stations are determined, adjusted for instances of zero flow using a conditional probability adjustment method, and presented for non-exceedance probabilities of 0.9, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.05, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.005. Stream basin characteristics computed using spatial data and a geographic information system are used as explanatory variables in regional regression equations to estimate annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites and are summarized for 290 long-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations, and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Regional regression equations for six physiographic regions use basin characteristics to estimate 1-, 4-, 7-, and 30-day average low-flow annual non-exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites. Weighted low-flow values that combine computed streamgaging station low-flow characteristics and annual non-exceedance probabilities from regional regression equations provide improved low-flow estimates. Regression equations developed using the Maintenance of Variance with Extension (MOVE.1) method describe the line of organic correlation (LOC) with an appropriate index site for low-flow characteristics at 136 short-term, continuous-record streamgaging stations and 613 partial-record streamgaging stations. Monthly streamflow statistics computed on the individual daily mean streamflows of selected continuous-record streamgaging stations and curves describing flow-duration are presented. Text, figures, and lists are provided summarizing low-flow estimates, selected low-flow sites, delineated physiographic regions, basin characteristics, regression equations, error estimates, definitions, and data sources. This study supersedes previous studies of low flows in Virginia.

An XMM-Newton Observation of the Lagoon Nebula and the Very Young Open Cluster NGC 6530

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rauw, G.; Naze, Y.; Gosset, E.; Stevens, I. R.; Blomme, R.; Corcoran, M. F.; Pittard, J. M.; Runacres, M. C.

2002-01-01

We report the results of an XMM-Newton observation of the Lagoon Nebula (M 8). Our EPIC images of this region reveal a cluster of point sources, most of which have optical counterparts inside the very young open cluster NGC 6530. The bulk of these X-ray sources are probably associated with low and intermediate mass pre-main sequence stars. One of the sources experiences a flare-like increase of its X-ray flux making it the second brightest source in M 8 after the O4 star 9 Sgr. The X-ray spectra of most of the brightest sources can be fitted with thermal plasma models with temperatures of kT approximately a few keV. Only a few of the X-ray selected PMS candidates are known to display H(alpha) emission and were previously classified as classical T Tauri stars. This suggests that most of the X-ray emitting PMS stars in NGC 6530 are weak line T Tauri stars. In addition to 9 Sgr, our EPIC field of view contains also a few early-type stars. The X-ray emission from HD 164816 is found to be typical for an O9.5III-IV star. At least one of the known Herbig Be stars in NGC 6530 (LkH(alpha) 115) exhibits a relatively strong X-ray emission, while most of the main sequence stars of spectral type B1 and later are not detected. We also detect (probably) diffuse X-ray emission from the Hourglass Region that might reveal a hot bubble blown by the stellar wind of Herschel 36, the ionizing star of the Hourglass Region.

Predicting redox conditions in groundwater at a regional scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Terziotti, Silvia; Abrams, Daniel B.

2015-01-01

Defining the oxic-suboxic interface is often critical for determining pathways for nitrate transport in groundwater and to streams at the local scale. Defining this interface on a regional scale is complicated by the spatial variability of reaction rates. The probability of oxic groundwater in the Chesapeake Bay watershed was predicted by relating dissolved O2 concentrations in groundwater samples to indicators of residence time and/or electron donor availability using logistic regression. Variables that describe surficial geology, position in the flow system, and soil drainage were important predictors of oxic water. The probability of encountering oxic groundwater at a 30 m depth and the depth to the bottom of the oxic layer were predicted for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The influence of depth to the bottom of the oxic layer on stream nitrate concentrations and time lags (i.e., time period between land application of nitrogen and its effect on streams) are illustrated using model simulations for hypothetical basins. Regional maps of the probability of oxic groundwater should prove useful as indicators of groundwater susceptibility and stream susceptibility to contaminant sources derived from groundwater.

In situ measurements of the mesosphere and stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crosky, C.

1976-01-01

The operation of a subsonic, Gerdien condenser probe for in situ measurements of the mesosphere and stratosphere is presented. The inclusion of a flashing Lyman alpha ultraviolet source provides an artifically produced ionization of particular constituents. Detailed theory of operation is presented and the data results from two flights are shown. A great deal of fine structure in mobility is observed due to the presence of various hydrated positive ions. The effect of the Lyman alpha source in the 35 km region was to dissociate a light hydrate ion rather than produce additional ionization. At the 70 km region, photodissociation of the heaviest ions (probably ice crystals) was also observed.

Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, J.J.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.; Qi, S.L.

2007-01-01

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

Sources affecting knowledge and behavior responses to the Zika virus in US households with current pregnancy, intended pregnancy and a high probability of unintended pregnancy.

PubMed

Chan, Man-Pui Sally; Farhadloo, Mohsen; Winneg, Kenneth; Jamieson, Kathleen Hall; Albarracin, Dolores

2018-06-01

This study examined the influences of information sources on Zika-relevant knowledge and behaviors in US households containing members who are pregnant, intend to become pregnant, or have a higher probability of unintended pregnancy in Zika-affected regions (i.e. respondents who are younger, are black, have less education, are unmarried, and reside in the southern USA). Over 22 000 US adults completed a survey measuring Zika-relevant knowledge and behaviors along with information sources (e.g. discussing Zika with practitioners), general media usage (e.g. TV) and demographic information over 30 weeks. Respondents in the group with (versus without) either pregnancy or intended pregnancy were more likely to use all information sources, which in turn created differences in knowledge and behavior responses. To gauge information sources in US-South respondents with a high probability of having a household member with unintended pregnancy based on demographics, younger, less-educated, unmarried, black respondents had fewer Zika discussion with practitioners than another group. Efforts to increase Zika-related knowledge and protective behaviors should target households with members who are pregnant or intending to become pregnant via practitioners, family and friends. Additional efforts should target information channels to reach younger, less educated, unmarried, black respondents, which are at risk for unintended pregnancy.

A MULTIWAVELENGTH STUDY OF STAR FORMATION IN THE VICINITY OF GALACTIC H II REGION Sh 2-100

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Samal, M. R.; Pandey, A. K.; Sagar, R.

We present multiwavelength investigation of morphology, physical-environment, stellar contents, and star formation activity in the vicinity of star-forming region Sh 2-100. It is found that the Sh 2-100 region contains seven H II regions of ultracompact and compact nature. The present estimation of distance for three H II regions, along with the kinematic distance for others, suggests that all of them belong to the same molecular cloud complex. Using near-infrared photometry, we identified the most probable ionizing sources of six H II regions. Their approximate photometric spectral type estimates suggest that they are massive early-B to mid-O zero-age-main-sequence stars andmore » agree well with radio continuum observations at 1280 MHz, for sources whose emissions are optically thin at this frequency. The morphology of the complex shows a non-uniform distribution of warm and hot dust, well mixed with the ionized gas, which correlates well with the variation of average visual extinction ({approx}4.2-97 mag) across the region. We estimated the physical parameters of ionized gas with the help of radio continuum observations. We detected an optically visible compact nebula located to the south of the 850 {mu}m emission associated with one of the H II regions and the diagnostic of the optical emission line ratios gives electron density and electron temperature of {approx}0.67 x 10{sup 3} cm{sup -3} and {approx}10{sup 4} K, respectively. The physical parameters suggest that all the H II regions are in different stages of evolution, which correlate well with the probable ages in the range {approx}0.01-2 Myr of the ionizing sources. The spatial distribution of infrared excess stars, selected from near-infrared and Infrared Array Camera color-color diagrams, correlates well with the association of gas and dust. The positions of infrared excess stars, ultracompact and compact H II regions at the periphery of an H I shell, possibly created by a WR star, indicate that star formation in Sh 2-100 region might have been induced by an expanding H I shell.« less

Implementation of Ebola case-finding using a village chieftaincy taskforce in a remote outbreak - Liberia, 2014.

PubMed

Hagan, José E; Smith, Wilmot; Pillai, Satish K; Yeoman, Kristin; Gupta, Sundeep; Neatherlin, John; Slutsker, Laurence; Lindblade, Kim A; DeCock, Kevin M; Kateh, Francis; Nyenswah, Tolbert

2015-02-27

On October 16, 2014, a woman aged 48 years traveled from Monrovia, Liberia, to the Kayah region of Rivercess County, a remote, resource-poor, and sparsely populated region of Liberia, and died on October 21 with symptoms compatible with Ebola virus disease (Ebola). She was buried in accordance with local tradition, which included grooming, touching, and kissing the body by family and other community members while it was being prepared for burial. During October 24-November 12, eight persons with probable and 13 with confirmed Ebola epidemiologically linked to the deceased woman had onset of symptoms. Nineteen of the 21 persons lived in five nearby villages in Kayah region; two, both with probable cases, lived in neighboring Grand Bassa County (Figure). Four of the confirmed cases in Kayah were linked by time and location, although the source case could not be determined because the patients had more than one exposure.

A hydroclimatological approach to predicting regional landslide probability using Landlab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, Ronda; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Nudurupati, Sai Siddhartha; Bandaragoda, Christina; Gasparini, Nicole M.; Tucker, Gregory E.

2018-02-01

We develop a hydroclimatological approach to the modeling of regional shallow landslide initiation that integrates spatial and temporal dimensions of parameter uncertainty to estimate an annual probability of landslide initiation based on Monte Carlo simulations. The physically based model couples the infinite-slope stability model with a steady-state subsurface flow representation and operates in a digital elevation model. Spatially distributed gridded data for soil properties and vegetation classification are used for parameter estimation of probability distributions that characterize model input uncertainty. Hydrologic forcing to the model is through annual maximum daily recharge to subsurface flow obtained from a macroscale hydrologic model. We demonstrate the model in a steep mountainous region in northern Washington, USA, over 2700 km2. The influence of soil depth on the probability of landslide initiation is investigated through comparisons among model output produced using three different soil depth scenarios reflecting the uncertainty of soil depth and its potential long-term variability. We found elevation-dependent patterns in probability of landslide initiation that showed the stabilizing effects of forests at low elevations, an increased landslide probability with forest decline at mid-elevations (1400 to 2400 m), and soil limitation and steep topographic controls at high alpine elevations and in post-glacial landscapes. These dominant controls manifest themselves in a bimodal distribution of spatial annual landslide probability. Model testing with limited observations revealed similarly moderate model confidence for the three hazard maps, suggesting suitable use as relative hazard products. The model is available as a component in Landlab, an open-source, Python-based landscape earth systems modeling environment, and is designed to be easily reproduced utilizing HydroShare cyberinfrastructure.

Assessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

2009-01-01

Estimating the likelihood of tsunamis occurring along the U.S. Atlantic coast critically depends on knowledge of tsunami source probability. We review available information on both earthquake and landslide probabilities from potential sources that could generate local and transoceanic tsunamis. Estimating source probability includes defining both size and recurrence distributions for earthquakes and landslides. For the former distribution, source sizes are often distributed according to a truncated or tapered power-law relationship. For the latter distribution, sources are often assumed to occur in time according to a Poisson process, simplifying the way tsunami probabilities from individual sources can be aggregated. For the U.S. Atlantic coast, earthquake tsunami sources primarily occur at transoceanic distances along plate boundary faults. Probabilities for these sources are constrained from previous statistical studies of global seismicity for similar plate boundary types. In contrast, there is presently little information constraining landslide probabilities that may generate local tsunamis. Though there is significant uncertainty in tsunami source probabilities for the Atlantic, results from this study yield a comparative analysis of tsunami source recurrence rates that can form the basis for future probabilistic analyses.

Assessment of seismic hazard in the North Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulomov, V. I.; Danilova, T. I.; Medvedeva, N. S.; Polyakova, T. P.; Shumilina, L. S.

2007-07-01

The seismicity of the North Caucasus is the highest in the European part of Russia. The detection of potential seismic sources here and long-term prediction of earthquakes are extremely important for the assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk in this densely populated and industrially developed region of the country. The seismogenic structures of the Iran-Caucasus-Anatolia and Central Asia regions, adjacent to European Russia, are the subjects of this study. These structures are responsible for the specific features of regional seismicity and for the geodynamic interaction with adjacent areas of the Scythian and Turan platforms. The most probable potential sources of earthquakes with magnitudes M = 7.0 ± 0.2 and 7.5 ± 0.2 in the North Caucasus are located. The possible macroseismic effect of one of them is assessed.

The proximity of hotspots to convergent and divergent plate boundaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinstein, Stuart A.; Olson, Peter L.

1989-01-01

An analysis of four different hotspot distributions, ranging from Morgan's (1972) original list of 19 to Vogt's (1981) list of 117 reveals that the hotspots are preferentially located near divergent plate boundaries. The probability of this proximity occurring by chance alone is quite remote, less than 0.01 for all four hotspot distributions. The same analysis also reveals that the hotspots are preferentially excluded from regions near convergent plate boundaries. The probability of this exclusion occurring by chance alone is 0.1 or less for three out of the four distributions examined. We interpret this behavior as being a consequence of the effects of large scale convective circulation on ascending mantle plumes. Mantle thermal plumes, the most probable source of hotspots, arise from instabilities in a basal thermal boundary layer. Plumes are suppressed from regions beneath convergent boundaries by descending flow and are entrained into the upwelling flow beneath spreading centers. Plate-scale convective circulation driven by subduction may also advect mantle thermal plumes toward spreading centers.

Hubble Tarantula Treasury Project - VI. Identification of Pre-Main-Sequence Stars using Machine Learning techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ksoll, Victor F.; Gouliermis, Dimitrios A.; Klessen, Ralf S.; Grebel, Eva K.; Sabbi, Elena; Anderson, Jay; Lennon, Daniel J.; Cignoni, Michele; de Marchi, Guido; Smith, Linda J.; Tosi, Monica; van der Marel, Roeland P.

2018-05-01

The Hubble Tarantula Treasury Project (HTTP) has provided an unprecedented photometric coverage of the entire star-burst region of 30 Doradus down to the half Solar mass limit. We use the deep stellar catalogue of HTTP to identify all the pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars of the region, i.e., stars that have not started their lives on the main-sequence yet. The photometric distinction of these stars from the more evolved populations is not a trivial task due to several factors that alter their colour-magnitude diagram positions. The identification of PMS stars requires, thus, sophisticated statistical methods. We employ Machine Learning Classification techniques on the HTTP survey of more than 800,000 sources to identify the PMS stellar content of the observed field. Our methodology consists of 1) carefully selecting the most probable low-mass PMS stellar population of the star-forming cluster NGC2070, 2) using this sample to train classification algorithms to build a predictive model for PMS stars, and 3) applying this model in order to identify the most probable PMS content across the entire Tarantula Nebula. We employ Decision Tree, Random Forest and Support Vector Machine classifiers to categorise the stars as PMS and Non-PMS. The Random Forest and Support Vector Machine provided the most accurate models, predicting about 20,000 sources with a candidateship probability higher than 50 percent, and almost 10,000 PMS candidates with a probability higher than 95 percent. This is the richest and most accurate photometric catalogue of extragalactic PMS candidates across the extent of a whole star-forming complex.

Using OBS Data to Constrain the Characteristics of Microseisms in South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, H.; Xue, M.; Yang, T.; Liu, C.; Hua, Q.; Xia, S.; Huo, D.; Huang, H.; Le, B. M.; Pan, M.; Li, L.

2016-12-01

It has long been recognized that ocean gravity waves can generate microseisms through the coupling with the solid earth. Their generation mechanisms, wave types and propagation have been studied and debated intensively. In this study, we are aiming to study microseisms in South China Sea. We use six OBS data from an OBS array experiment supported by Natural Science Foundation of China, all available land broadband seismic data, and all available global satellite data from May 01, 2012 through August 20, 2012 (UTC). We mainly apply four techniques, i.e., power spectrum density (PSD), correlation, temporal frequency spectrum, and frequency dependent polarization analysis to study microseisms in South China Sea. We found that 1) the energy level of microseisms observed on OBSs are higher than land stations and there is no SF (0.05-0.08Hz) on OBSs; 2) SPDF is predominant on both the DF band (0.1-0.5Hz) as well as the whole band of microseisms (0.05-0.5Hz) for both OBSs and Land stations; 3) DF microseisms are significantly intensified by typhoons; 4) the variations of microseisms correlate well with the variations of nearby significant ocean wave height; 5) LPDF microseisms and SPDF microseisms have different polarization directions at most stations, suggesting they are generated from different source area; 6) the predominant directions of SPDF microseisms are much more scattered than those of LPDF microseisms, probably implying that SPDF microseisms have multiple sources; 7) most of microseisms are probably a mixture of P, Love and Rayleigh waves in this region. From our study, we found that the source regions for microseisms observed near marginal seas such as South China Sea are local and do not overlap with the source regions for global microseisms.

Simulation of inverse Compton scattering and its implications on the scattered linewidth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranjan, N.; Terzić, B.; Krafft, G. A.; Petrillo, V.; Drebot, I.; Serafini, L.

2018-03-01

Rising interest in inverse Compton sources has increased the need for efficient models that properly quantify the behavior of scattered radiation given a set of interaction parameters. The current state-of-the-art simulations rely on Monte Carlo-based methods, which, while properly expressing scattering behavior in high-probability regions of the produced spectra, may not correctly simulate such behavior in low-probability regions (e.g. tails of spectra). Moreover, sampling may take an inordinate amount of time for the desired accuracy to be achieved. In this paper, we present an analytic derivation of the expression describing the scattered radiation linewidth and propose a model to describe the effects of horizontal and vertical emittance on the properties of the scattered radiation. We also present an improved version of the code initially reported in Krafft et al. [Phys. Rev. Accel. Beams 19, 121302 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevAccelBeams.19.121302], that can perform the same simulations as those present in cain and give accurate results in low-probability regions by integrating over the emissions of the electrons. Finally, we use these codes to carry out simulations that closely verify the behavior predicted by the analytically derived scaling law.

Simulation of inverse Compton scattering and its implications on the scattered linewidth

DOE PAGES

Ranjan, N.; Terzić, B.; Krafft, G. A.; ...

2018-03-06

Rising interest in inverse Compton sources has increased the need for efficient models that properly quantify the behavior of scattered radiation given a set of interaction parameters. The current state-of-the-art simulations rely on Monte Carlo-based methods, which, while properly expressing scattering behavior in high-probability regions of the produced spectra, may not correctly simulate such behavior in low-probability regions (e.g. tails of spectra). Moreover, sampling may take an inordinate amount of time for the desired accuracy to be achieved. Here in this article, we present an analytic derivation of the expression describing the scattered radiation linewidth and propose a model tomore » describe the effects of horizontal and vertical emittance on the properties of the scattered radiation. We also present an improved version of the code initially reported in Krafft et al. [Phys. Rev. Accel. Beams 19, 121302 (2016)], that can perform the same simulations as those present in cain and give accurate results in low-probability regions by integrating over the emissions of the electrons. Finally, we use these codes to carry out simulations that closely verify the behavior predicted by the analytically derived scaling law.« less

An empirical model for earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region, California, 2002-2031

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reasenberg, P.A.; Hanks, T.C.; Bakun, W.H.

2003-01-01

The moment magnitude M 7.8 earthquake in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic models of stress change fail to fully account for the duration of the lowered rate of earthquake activity. We use variations in the rate of earthquakes as a basis for a simple empirical model for estimating the probability of M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the SFBR. The model preserves the relative magnitude distribution of sources predicted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities' (WGCEP, 1999; WGCEP, 2002) model of characterized ruptures on SFBR faults and is consistent with the occurrence of the four M ≥6.7 earthquakes in the region since 1838. When the empirical model is extrapolated 30 yr forward from 2002, it gives a probability of 0.42 for one or more M ≥6.7 in the SFBR. This result is lower than the probability of 0.5 estimated by WGCEP (1988), lower than the 30-yr Poisson probability of 0.60 obtained by WGCEP (1999) and WGCEP (2002), and lower than the 30-yr time-dependent probabilities of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.63 obtained by WGCEP (1990), WGCEP (1999), and WGCEP (2002), respectively, for the occurrence of one or more large earthquakes. This lower probability is consistent with the lack of adequate accounting for the 1906 stress-shadow in these earlier reports. The empirical model represents one possible approach toward accounting for the stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, the discrepancy between our result and those obtained with other modeling methods underscores the fact that the physics controlling the timing of earthquakes is not well understood. Hence, we advise against using the empirical model alone (or any other single probability model) for estimating the earthquake hazard and endorse the use of all credible earthquake probability models for the region, including the empirical model, with appropriate weighting, as was done in WGCEP (2002).

Filtering peripheral high temperature electrons in a cylindrical rf-driven plasmas by an axisymmetric radial magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akahoshi, Hikaru; Takahashi, Kazunori; Ando, Akira

2018-03-01

High temperature electrons generated near a radial wall of a cylindrical source tube in a radiofrequency (rf) inductively-coupled plasma is filtered by an axisymmetric radial magnetic field formed near the source exit by locating annular permanent magnets, where the axial magnetic field strength in the radially central region is fairly uniform inside the source tube and is close to zero near the source exit. The source is operated at 3 mTorr in argon and the rf antenna is powered by a 13.56 MHz and 400 W rf generator. Measurement of electron energy probability functions shows the presence of the peripheral high temperature electrons inside the source, while the temperature of the peripheral electrons downstream of the source is observed to be reduced.

Galaxy And Mass Assembly: the G02 field, Herschel-ATLAS target selection and data release 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldry, I. K.; Liske, J.; Brown, M. J. I.; Robotham, A. S. G.; Driver, S. P.; Dunne, L.; Alpaslan, M.; Brough, S.; Cluver, M. E.; Eardley, E.; Farrow, D. J.; Heymans, C.; Hildebrandt, H.; Hopkins, A. M.; Kelvin, L. S.; Loveday, J.; Moffett, A. J.; Norberg, P.; Owers, M. S.; Taylor, E. N.; Wright, A. H.; Bamford, S. P.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.; Bourne, N.; Bremer, M. N.; Colless, M.; Conselice, C. J.; Croom, S. M.; Davies, L. J. M.; Foster, C.; Grootes, M. W.; Holwerda, B. W.; Jones, D. H.; Kafle, P. R.; Kuijken, K.; Lara-Lopez, M. A.; López-Sánchez, Á. R.; Meyer, M. J.; Phillipps, S.; Sutherland, W. J.; van Kampen, E.; Wilkins, S. M.

2018-03-01

We describe data release 3 (DR3) of the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey. The GAMA survey is a spectroscopic redshift and multiwavelength photometric survey in three equatorial regions each of 60.0 deg2 (G09, G12, and G15), and two southern regions of 55.7 deg2 (G02) and 50.6 deg2 (G23). DR3 consists of: the first release of data covering the G02 region and of data on H-ATLAS (Herschel - Astrophysical Terahertz Large Area Survey) sources in the equatorial regions; and updates to data on sources released in DR2. DR3 includes 154 809 sources with secure redshifts across four regions. A subset of the G02 region is 95.5 per cent redshift complete to r < 19.8 mag over an area of 19.5 deg2, with 20 086 galaxy redshifts, that overlaps substantially with the XXL survey (X-ray) and VIPERS (redshift survey). In the equatorial regions, the main survey has even higher completeness (98.5 per cent), and spectra for about 75 per cent of H-ATLAS filler targets were also obtained. This filler sample extends spectroscopic redshifts, for probable optical counterparts to H-ATLAS submillimetre sources, to 0.8 mag deeper (r < 20.6 mag) than the GAMA main survey. There are 25 814 galaxy redshifts for H-ATLAS sources from the GAMA main or filler surveys. GAMA DR3 is available at the survey website (www.gama-survey.org/dr3/).

Gamma-Ray Emision from the Broad-Line Radio Galaxy 3C 111

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, Robert C.; Kadler, Matthias; Tueller, Jack

2008-01-01

The broad-line radio galaxy 3C 111 has been suggested as the counterpart of the Gamma-ray source 3EGJ0416+3650. While 3C 111 meets most of the criteria for a high-probability identification, like a bright fla t-spectrum radio core and a blazarlike broadband SED, in the Third EG RET Catalog, the large positional offset of about 1.5 degrees put 3C1 11 outside the 99% probability region for 3EG J0416+3650, making this association questionable. We present a re-analysis of all available data for 3C111 from the EGRET archives, resulting in probable detection of high-energy Gamma-ray emission above 1000MeV from a position clo se to the nominal position of 3C 111, in two separate viewing periods (VPs), at a 3sigma level in each. A new source, GROJ0426+3747, appea rs to be present nearby, seen only in the >1000MeV data. For >100MeV, the data are in agreement with only one source (at the original cata log position) accounting for most of the EGRET-detected emission of 3 EGJ0416+3650. A follow-up Swift UVOT/XRT observation reveals one mode rately bright X-ray source in the error box of 3EGJ0416+3650, but bec ause of the large EGRET position uncertainty, it is not certain that the X-ray and Gamma-ray sources are associated. A Swift observation of GROJ0426+3747 detected no X.ray source nearby.

Improved bioluminescence and fluorescence reconstruction algorithms using diffuse optical tomography, normalized data, and optimized selection of the permissible source region

PubMed Central

Naser, Mohamed A.; Patterson, Michael S.

2011-01-01

Reconstruction algorithms are presented for two-step solutions of the bioluminescence tomography (BLT) and the fluorescence tomography (FT) problems. In the first step, a continuous wave (cw) diffuse optical tomography (DOT) algorithm is used to reconstruct the tissue optical properties assuming known anatomical information provided by x-ray computed tomography or other methods. Minimization problems are formed based on L1 norm objective functions, where normalized values for the light fluence rates and the corresponding Green’s functions are used. Then an iterative minimization solution shrinks the permissible regions where the sources are allowed by selecting points with higher probability to contribute to the source distribution. Throughout this process the permissible region shrinks from the entire object to just a few points. The optimum reconstructed bioluminescence and fluorescence distributions are chosen to be the results of the iteration corresponding to the permissible region where the objective function has its global minimum This provides efficient BLT and FT reconstruction algorithms without the need for a priori information about the bioluminescence sources or the fluorophore concentration. Multiple small sources and large distributed sources can be reconstructed with good accuracy for the location and the total source power for BLT and the total number of fluorophore molecules for the FT. For non-uniform distributed sources, the size and magnitude become degenerate due to the degrees of freedom available for possible solutions. However, increasing the number of data points by increasing the number of excitation sources can improve the accuracy of reconstruction for non-uniform fluorophore distributions. PMID:21326647

The spatially varying influence of humans on fire probability in North America

Treesearch

Marc-Andre Parisien; Carol Miller; Sean A. Parks; Evan R. DeLancey; Francois-Nicolas Robinne; Mike D. Flannigan

2016-01-01

Humans affect fire regimes by providing ignition sources in some cases, suppressing wildfires in others, and altering natural vegetation in ways that may either promote or limit fire. InNorthAmerica, several studies have evaluated the effects of society on fire activity; however, most studies have been regional or subcontinental in scope and used different...

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic compositions of ambient aerosols collected from Okinawa Island in the western North Pacific Rim, an outflow region of Asian dusts and pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunwar, Bhagawati; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Zhu, Chunmao

2016-04-01

Stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope ratios were measured for total carbon (TC) and nitrogen (TN), respectively, in aerosol (TSP) samples collected at Cape Hedo, Okinawa, an outflow region of Asian pollutants, during 2009-2010. The averaged δ13C and δ15N ratios are -22.2‰ and +12.5‰, respectively. The δ13C values are similar in both spring (-22.5‰) and winter (-22.5‰), suggesting the similar sources and/or source regions. We found that δ13C from Okinawa aerosols are ca. 2‰ higher than those reported from Chinese megacities probably due to photochemical aging of organic aerosols. A strong correlation (r = 0.81) was found between nss-Ca and TSP, suggesting that springtime aerosols are influenced from Asian dusts. However, carbonates in the Asian dusts were titrated with acidic species such as sulfuric acid and oxalic acid during atmospheric transport although two samples suggested the presence of remaining carbonate. No correlations were found between δ13C and tracer compounds (levoglucosan, elemental carbon, oxalic acid, and Na+). During winter and spring, coal burning is significant source in China. Based on isotopic mass balance, contribution of coal burning origin particles to total aerosol carbon was estimated as ca. 97% in winter, which is probably associated with the high emissions in China. Contribution of NO3- to TN was on average 45% whereas that of NH4+ was 18%. These results suggest that vehicular exhaust is an important source of TN in Okinawa aerosols. Concentration of water-soluble organic nitrogen (WSON) is higher in summer, suggesting that WSON is more emitted from the ocean in warmer season whereas inorganic nitrogen is more emitted in winter and spring from pollution sources in the Asian continent.

La Isla de Gorgona, Colombia: A petrological enigma?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Andrew C.

2005-09-01

A wide range of intrusive (wehrlite, dunite, gabbro and olivine gabbro) and extrusive (komatiites picrites and basalts) igneous rocks are found on the small pacific island of Gorgona. The island is best known for its ˜90 Ma spinifex-textured komatiites: the only true Phanerozoic komatiites yet discovered. Early work led to suggestions that the rocks of the island formed at a mid-ocean ridge, however more recent research supports an origin as part of a hot mantle plume-derived oceanic plateau. One of the main lines of evidence for this origin stems from the inferred high mantle source temperatures required to form the high-MgO (> 15 wt.%) komatiites and picrites. Another remarkable feature of the island, considering its small size (8 × 2.5 km), is the degree of chemical and radiogenic isotopic heterogeneity shown by the rocks. This heterogeneity requires a mantle source region with at least three isotopically distinctive source regions (two depleted and one enriched). Although these mantle source regions appear to be derived in significant part from recycled oceanic crust and lithosphere, enrichments in 187Os, 186Os and 3He in Gorgona lavas and intrusive rocks, suggest some degree of transfer of material from the outer core to the plume source region at D″. Modelling reveals that the komatiites probably formed by dynamic melting at an average pressure of 3-4 GPa leaving residual harzburgite. Trace element depletion in Gorgona ultramafic rocks appears to be the result of earlier, deeper melting which produced high-MgO trace element-enriched magmas. The discovery of a trace-element enriched picrite on the island has confirmed this model. Gorgona accreted onto the palaeocontinental margin of northwestern South America in the Eocene and palaeomagnetic work reveals that it was formed at ˜26 °S. It has been proposed that Gorgona is a part of the Caribbean-Colombian Oceanic Plateau (CCOP), however, the CCOP accreted in the Late Cretaceous and was derived from a more equatorial palaeolatitude. This evidence, and differing geochemical signatures, strongly suggests that Gorgona and probably other coastal oceanic plateau sequences in Colombia and Ecuador, belong to a completely different oceanic plateau to the CCOP.

Simulating stream transport of nutrients in the eastern United States, 2002, using a spatially-referenced regression model and 1:100,000-scale hydrography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoos, Anne B.; Moore, Richard B.; Garcia, Ana Maria; Noe, Gregory B.; Terziotti, Silvia E.; Johnston, Craig M.; Dennis, Robin L.

2013-01-01

Existing Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nutrient models for the northeastern and southeastern regions of the United States were recalibrated to achieve a hydrographically consistent model with which to assess nutrient sources and stream transport and investigate specific management questions about the effects of wetlands and atmospheric deposition on nutrient transport. Recalibrated nitrogen models for the northeast and southeast were sufficiently similar to be merged into a single nitrogen model for the eastern United States. The atmospheric deposition source in the nitrogen model has been improved to account for individual components of atmospheric input, derived from emissions from agricultural manure, agricultural livestock, vehicles, power plants, other industry, and background sources. This accounting makes it possible to simulate the effects of altering an individual component of atmospheric deposition, such as nitrate emissions from vehicles or power plants. Regional differences in transport of phosphorus through wetlands and reservoirs were investigated and resulted in two distinct phosphorus models for the northeast and southeast. The recalibrated nitrogen and phosphorus models account explicitly for the influence of wetlands on regional-scale land-phase and aqueous-phase transport of nutrients and therefore allow comparison of the water-quality functions of different wetland systems over large spatial scales. Seven wetland systems were associated with enhanced transport of either nitrogen or phosphorus in streams, probably because of the export of dissolved organic nitrogen and bank erosion. Six wetland systems were associated with mitigating the delivery of either nitrogen or phosphorus to streams, probably because of sedimentation, phosphate sorption, and ground water infiltration.

Influences of Source-Item Contingency and Schematic Knowledge on Source Monitoring: Tests of the Probability-Matching Account

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bayen, Ute J.; Kuhlmann, Beatrice G.

2011-01-01

The authors investigated conditions under which judgments in source-monitoring tasks are influenced by prior schematic knowledge. According to a probability-matching account of source guessing (Spaniol & Bayen, 2002), when people do not remember the source of information, they match source-guessing probabilities to the perceived contingency…

Einstein observations of the X-ray structure of Centaurus A - Evidence for the radio-lobe energy source

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schreier, E. J.; Feigelson, E.; Delvaille, J.; Giacconi, R.; Grindlay, J.; Schwartz, D. A.; Fabian, A. C.

1979-01-01

The X-ray source at the center of the radio galaxy Centaurus A has been resolved into the following components with the imaging detectors on board the Einstein X-ray Observatory: (1) a point source coincident with the infrared nucleus; (2) diffuse X-ray emission coinciding with the inner radio lobes; (3) a 4-arcmin extended region of emission about the nucleus; and (4) an X-ray jet between the nucleus and the NE inner radio lobe. The 2 x 10 to the 39th ergs/s detected from the radio lobes probably arises from inverse Compton scattering of the microwave background. The average magnetic field in the SW lobe is determined to be not less than 4 microgauss. The extended region may be due to emission by a cloud of hot gas, cosmic-ray scattering, or stellar sources. The jet provides strong evidence for the continuous resupply of energy to the lobes from the nucleus.

Assessment of atmospheric metallic pollution in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil, employing Tillandsia usneoides L. as biomonitor.

PubMed

Figueiredo, A M G; Nogueira, C A; Saiki, M; Milian, F M; Domingos, M

2007-01-01

Tillandsia usneoides L. is an epiphytic bromeliad plant able to absorb water and nutrients directly from the air. For this reason this species was selected to carry out a monitoring study of air pollution in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil. Five consecutive transplantation experiments (8 weeks each) were performed in 10 sites of the city, submitted to different sources of air pollution (industrial, vehicular), using plants collected from an unpolluted area. After exposure, trace metals were analyzed in the plant by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Traffic-related elements such as Zn and Ba presented high concentrations in exposure sites near to heavy traffic avenues (cars, buses and trucks) and may be associated to vehicular sources. For Zn and Co the highest contents were related to industrial zones and can be associated to the presence of anthropogenic emission sources. The rare earth elements, Fe and Rb, probably have soil particles as main source.

A NAIVE BAYES SOURCE CLASSIFIER FOR X-RAY SOURCES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Broos, Patrick S.; Getman, Konstantin V.; Townsley, Leisa K.

2011-05-01

The Chandra Carina Complex Project (CCCP) provides a sensitive X-ray survey of a nearby starburst region over >1 deg{sup 2} in extent. Thousands of faint X-ray sources are found, many concentrated into rich young stellar clusters. However, significant contamination from unrelated Galactic and extragalactic sources is present in the X-ray catalog. We describe the use of a naive Bayes classifier to assign membership probabilities to individual sources, based on source location, X-ray properties, and visual/infrared properties. For the particular membership decision rule adopted, 75% of CCCP sources are classified as members, 11% are classified as contaminants, and 14% remain unclassified.more » The resulting sample of stars likely to be Carina members is used in several other studies, which appear in this special issue devoted to the CCCP.« less

A Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Study of the Auckland Region, Part II: Inundation Modelling and Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lane, E. M.; Gillibrand, P. A.; Wang, X.; Power, W.

2013-09-01

Regional source tsunamis pose a potentially devastating hazard to communities and infrastructure on the New Zealand coast. But major events are very uncommon. This dichotomy of infrequent but potentially devastating hazards makes realistic assessment of the risk challenging. Here, we describe a method to determine a probabilistic assessment of the tsunami hazard by regional source tsunamis with an "Average Recurrence Interval" of 2,500-years. The method is applied to the east Auckland region of New Zealand. From an assessment of potential regional tsunamigenic events over 100,000 years, the inundation of the Auckland region from the worst 100 events is modelled using a hydrodynamic model and probabilistic inundation depths on a 2,500-year time scale were determined. Tidal effects on the potential inundation were included by coupling the predicted wave heights with the probability density function of tidal heights at the inundation site. Results show that the more exposed northern section of the east coast and outer islands in the Hauraki Gulf face the greatest hazard from regional tsunamis in the Auckland region. Incorporating tidal effects into predictions of inundation reduced the predicted hazard compared to modelling all the tsunamis arriving at high tide giving a more accurate hazard assessment on the specified time scale. This study presents the first probabilistic analysis of dynamic modelling of tsunami inundation for the New Zealand coast and as such provides the most comprehensive assessment of tsunami inundation of the Auckland region from regional source tsunamis available to date.

The influence of maximum magnitude on seismic-hazard estimates in the Central and Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, C.S.

2010-01-01

I analyze the sensitivity of seismic-hazard estimates in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) to maximum magnitude (mmax) by exercising the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) probabilistic hazard model with several mmax alternatives. Seismicity-based sources control the hazard in most of the CEUS, but data seldom provide an objective basis for estimating mmax. The USGS uses preferred mmax values of moment magnitude 7.0 and 7.5 for the CEUS craton and extended margin, respectively, derived from data in stable continental regions worldwide. Other approaches, for example analysis of local seismicity or judgment about a source's seismogenic potential, often lead to much smaller mmax. Alternative models span the mmax ranges from the 1980s Electric Power Research Institute/Seismicity Owners Group (EPRI/SOG) analysis. Results are presented as haz-ard ratios relative to the USGS national seismic hazard maps. One alternative model specifies mmax equal to moment magnitude 5.0 and 5.5 for the craton and margin, respectively, similar to EPRI/SOG for some sources. For 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (about 0.0004 annual probability), the strong mmax truncation produces hazard ratios equal to 0.35-0.60 for 0.2-sec spectral acceleration, and 0.15-0.35 for 1.0-sec spectral acceleration. Hazard-controlling earthquakes interact with mmax in complex ways. There is a relatively weak dependence on probability level: hazardratios increase 0-15% for 0.002 annual exceedance probability and decrease 5-25% for 0.00001 annual exceedance probability. Although differences at some sites are tempered when faults are added, mmax clearly accounts for some of the discrepancies that are seen in comparisons between USGS-based and EPRI/SOG-based hazard results.

Long-distance plant dispersal to North Atlantic islands: colonization routes and founder effect

PubMed Central

Alsos, Inger Greve; Ehrich, Dorothee; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Solstad, Heidi; Westergaard, Kristine Bakke; Schönswetter, Peter; Tribsch, Andreas; Birkeland, Siri; Elven, Reidar; Brochmann, Christian

2015-01-01

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) processes influence the founder effect on islands. We use genetic data for 25 Atlantic species and similarities among regional floras to analyse colonization, and test whether the genetic founder effect on five islands is associated with dispersal distance, island size and species traits. Most species colonized postglacially via multiple dispersal events from several source regions situated 280 to >3000 km away, and often not from the closest ones. A strong founder effect was observed for insect-pollinated mixed maters, and it increased with dispersal distance and decreased with island size in accordance with the theory of island biogeography. Only a minor founder effect was observed for wind-pollinated outcrossing species. Colonization patterns were largely congruent, indicating that despite the importance of stochasticity, LDD is mainly determined by common factors, probably dispersal vectors. Our findings caution against a priori assuming a single, close source region in biogeographic analyses. PMID:25876627

Microwave quantum illumination.

PubMed

Barzanjeh, Shabir; Guha, Saikat; Weedbrook, Christian; Vitali, David; Shapiro, Jeffrey H; Pirandola, Stefano

2015-02-27

Quantum illumination is a quantum-optical sensing technique in which an entangled source is exploited to improve the detection of a low-reflectivity object that is immersed in a bright thermal background. Here, we describe and analyze a system for applying this technique at microwave frequencies, a more appropriate spectral region for target detection than the optical, due to the naturally occurring bright thermal background in the microwave regime. We use an electro-optomechanical converter to entangle microwave signal and optical idler fields, with the former being sent to probe the target region and the latter being retained at the source. The microwave radiation collected from the target region is then phase conjugated and upconverted into an optical field that is combined with the retained idler in a joint-detection quantum measurement. The error probability of this microwave quantum-illumination system, or quantum radar, is shown to be superior to that of any classical microwave radar of equal transmitted energy.

Thermal maturation and petroleum source rocks in Forest City and Salina basins, mid-continent, U. S. A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newell, K.D.; Watney, W.L.; Hatch, J.R.

1986-05-01

Shales in the Middle Ordovician Simpson Group are probably the source rocks for a geochemically distinct group of lower pristane and low phytane oils produced along the axis of the Forest City basin, a shallow cratonic Paleozoic basin. These oils, termed Ordovician-type oils, occur in some fields in the southern portion of the adjacent Salina basin. Maturation modeling by time-temperature index (TTI) calculations indicate that maturation of both basins was minimal during the early Paleozoic. The rate of maturation significantly increased during the Pennsylvanian because of rapid regional subsidence in response to the downwarping of the nearby Anadarko basin. Whenmore » estimated thicknesses of eroded Pennsylvanian, Permian, and Cretaceous strata are considered, both basins remain relatively shallow, with maximum basement burial probably not exceeding 2 km. According to maturation modeling and regional structure mapping, the axes of both basins should contain Simpson rocks in the early stages of oil generation. The probability of finding commercial accumulations of Ordovician-type oil along the northwest-southeast trending axis of the Salina basin will decrease in a northwestward direction because of (1) westward thinning of the Simpson Group, and (2) lesser maturation due to lower geothermal gradients and shallower paleoburial depths. The optimum localities for finding fields of Ordovician-type oil in the southern Salina basin will be in down-plunge closures on anticlines that have drainage areas near the basin axis.« less

Probabilistic Models For Earthquakes With Large Return Periods In Himalaya Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaudhary, Chhavi; Sharma, Mukat Lal

2017-12-01

Determination of the frequency of large earthquakes is of paramount importance for seismic risk assessment as large events contribute to significant fraction of the total deformation and these long return period events with low probability of occurrence are not easily captured by classical distributions. Generally, with a small catalogue these larger events follow different distribution function from the smaller and intermediate events. It is thus of special importance to use statistical methods that analyse as closely as possible the range of its extreme values or the tail of the distributions in addition to the main distributions. The generalised Pareto distribution family is widely used for modelling the events which are crossing a specified threshold value. The Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto are the special cases of the generalised Pareto family. In this work, the probability of earthquake occurrence has been estimated using the Pareto, Truncated Pareto, and Tapered Pareto distributions. As a case study, the Himalayas whose orogeny lies in generation of large earthquakes and which is one of the most active zones of the world, has been considered. The whole Himalayan region has been divided into five seismic source zones according to seismotectonic and clustering of events. Estimated probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes have also been compared with the modified Gutenberg-Richter distribution and the characteristics recurrence distribution. The statistical analysis reveals that the Tapered Pareto distribution better describes seismicity for the seismic source zones in comparison to other distributions considered in the present study.

Data registration for automated non-destructive inspection with multiple data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippetts, T.; Brierley, N.; Cawley, P.

2013-01-01

In many NDE applications, multiple sources of data are available covering the same region of a part under inspection. These overlapping data can come from intersecting scan patterns, sensors in an array configuration, or repeated inspections at different times. In many cases these data sets are analysed independently, with separate assessments for each channel or data file. It should be possible to improve the overall reliability of the inspection by combining multiple sources of information, simultaneously increasing the Probability of Detection (POD) and decreasing the Probability of False Alarm (PFA). Data registration, i.e. mapping the data to matching coordinates in space, is both an essential prerequisite and a challenging obstacle to this type of data fusion. This paper describes optimization techniques for matching and aligning features in NDE data. Examples from automated ultrasound inspection of aircraft engine discs illustrate the approach.

The relationship between violence in Northern Mexico and potentially avoidable hospitalizations in the USA-Mexico border region.

PubMed

Geissler, Kimberley; Stearns, Sally C; Becker, Charles; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Holmes, George M

2016-03-01

Substantial proportions of US residents in the USA-Mexico border region cross into Mexico for health care; increases in violence in northern Mexico may have affected this access. We quantified associations between violence in Mexico and decreases in access to care for border county residents. We also examined associations between border county residence and access. We used hospital inpatient data for Arizona, California and Texas (2005-10) to estimate associations between homicide rates and the probability of hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions. Hospitalizations for ACS conditions were compared with homicide rates in Mexican municipalities matched by patient residence. A 1 SD increase in the homicide rate of the nearest Mexican municipality was associated with a 2.2 percentage point increase in the probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition for border county patients. Residence in a border county was associated with a 1.3 percentage point decrease in the probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition. Increased homicide rates in Mexico were associated with increased hospitalizations for ACS conditions in the USA, although residence in a border county was associated with decreased probability of being hospitalized for an ACS condition. Expanding access in the border region may mitigate these effects by providing alternative sources of care. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An XMM-Newton Study of 9SGR and the Lagoon Nebula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rauw, G.; Blomme, R.; Waldron, W. L.; Naze, Y.; Harries, T. J.; Chapman, J. M.; Corcoran, M. F.; Detal, A.; Gosset, E.

2001-01-01

We report preliminary results of an XMM-Newton observation of the 04 V star 9 Sgr (= HD 164794). 9 Sgr is one of a few single OB stars that display a non-thermal radio emission attributed to synchrotron emission by relativistic electrons. Inverse Compton scattering of photospheric UV photons by these relativistic electrons is a priori expected to generate a non-thermal power-law tail in the X-ray spectrum. Our EPIC and RGS spectra of 9 Sgr suggest a more complex situation than expected from this 'simple' theoretical picture. Furthermore, soft-band EPIC images of the region around 9 Sgr reveal a number of point sources inside the Lagoon Nebula (M8). Most of these sources have optical counterparts inside the very young open cluster NGC 6530 and several X-ray sources are associated with low and intermediate mass pre-main sequence stars. Finally, we also detect (probably) diffuse X-ray emission from the Hourglass Region that might reveal a hot bubble blown by the stellar wind of Herschel 36, the ionizing star of the HG region.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, Atalay

2017-10-01

Seismic hazard calculation is carried out for the Horn of Africa region (0°-20° N and 30°-50°E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. The earthquakes catalogue data obtained from different sources were compiled, homogenized to Mw magnitude scale and declustered to remove the dependent events as required by Poisson earthquake source model. The seismotectonic map of the study area that avails from recent studies is used for area sources zonation. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.5° × 0.5°, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering contributions from all seismic sources. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were calculated for all the grid points using generic rock site with Vs = 760 m/s. Obtained values vary from 0.0 to 0.18 g and 0.0-0.35 g for 475 and 2475 return periods, respectively. The corresponding contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values for the two return periods are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and hazard curves for PGA and 0.2 s spectral acceleration (Sa) all at rock site are developed for the city of Addis Ababa. The hazard map of this study corresponding to the 475 return periods has already been used to update and produce the 3rd generation building code of Ethiopia.

Who provided maize to Chaco Canyon after the mid-12th-century drought?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, Larry V.

2010-01-01

Between A.D. 1181 and 1200, in the early part of a climatically wet period, corn was imported to Chaco Canyon from a region outside the Chaco Halo (defined in this paper as the region between the base of the Chuska Mountains and Raton Wells). Strontium-isotope (87Sr/86Sr) analyses of 12 corn cobs dating to this period match 87Sr/86Sr ratios from five potential source areas, including: the Zuni region, the Mesa Verde-McElmo Dome area, the Totah, the Defiance Plateau, and Lobo Mesa. The latter two areas were eliminated from consideration as possible sources of corn in that they appear to have been unpopulated during the time period of interest. Therefore, it appears that the corn cobs were imported from the Zuni region, the Mesa Verde-McElmo Dome area, or the Totah area during a time when the climate was relatively wet and when a surplus of corn was produced in regions outside Chaco Canyon. Based on proximity to and cultural affiliation with Chaco Canyon, it is hypothesized that the corn probably was imported from the Totah.

Identifying uniformly mutated segments within repeats.

PubMed

Sahinalp, S Cenk; Eichler, Evan; Goldberg, Paul; Berenbrink, Petra; Friedetzky, Tom; Ergun, Funda

2004-12-01

Given a long string of characters from a constant size alphabet we present an algorithm to determine whether its characters have been generated by a single i.i.d. random source. More specifically, consider all possible n-coin models for generating a binary string S, where each bit of S is generated via an independent toss of one of the n coins in the model. The choice of which coin to toss is decided by a random walk on the set of coins where the probability of a coin change is much lower than the probability of using the same coin repeatedly. We present a procedure to evaluate the likelihood of a n-coin model for given S, subject a uniform prior distribution over the parameters of the model (that represent mutation rates and probabilities of copying events). In the absence of detailed prior knowledge of these parameters, the algorithm can be used to determine whether the a posteriori probability for n=1 is higher than for any other n>1. Our algorithm runs in time O(l4logl), where l is the length of S, through a dynamic programming approach which exploits the assumed convexity of the a posteriori probability for n. Our test can be used in the analysis of long alignments between pairs of genomic sequences in a number of ways. For example, functional regions in genome sequences exhibit much lower mutation rates than non-functional regions. Because our test provides means for determining variations in the mutation rate, it may be used to distinguish functional regions from non-functional ones. Another application is in determining whether two highly similar, thus evolutionarily related, genome segments are the result of a single copy event or of a complex series of copy events. This is particularly an issue in evolutionary studies of genome regions rich with repeat segments (especially tandemly repeated segments).

Near-infrared Polarimetry of the Outflow Source AFGL 6366S: Detection of Circular Polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Jungmi; Nakagawa, Takao; Tamura, Motohide; Hough, James H.; Kandori, Ryo; Choi, Minho; Kang, Miju; Cho, Jungyeon; Nakajima, Yasushi; Nagata, Tetsuya

2018-07-01

We have carried out near-infrared circular and linear imaging polarimetry of the AFGL 6366S region. There is one large infrared reflection nebula associated with the AFGL 6366S cluster and one small infrared reflection nebula associated with AFGL 6366S NE. Prominent and extended polarized nebulosities over the AFGL 6366S cluster field are found to be composed of several components and local nebula peaks, and those nebulosities are illuminated by at least three sources, which is roughly consistent with a previous study. However, the detailed linear polarization patterns and their degrees differ from the earlier study. The brightest regions of the nebulae are illuminated by the IRAS/WISE source. In addition, we report the first detection of circular polarization (CP) in the reflection nebula associated with AFGL 6366S. The CP is as large as approximately 4% in the K s band, and the maximum CP extent is approximately 0.45 pc, which is comparable to that for the largest CP regions known to date, such as Orion and Mon R2, although the CP degrees are much smaller. The CP pattern is mostly quadrupolar, and its morphology resembles the shape of the C18O dense core. Therefore, the CP region is probably illuminated by the IRAS/WISE source and its polarization is amplified by the dichroic absorption of the dense core associated with the cluster. This is the ninth source whose degrees of CPs are measured to be greater than 3%, suggesting that large and extended infrared CP regions are common among mid- to high-mass young stellar objects.

The North Alabama Lightning Warning Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buechler, Dennis E.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Stano, G. T.

2009-01-01

The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array NALMA has been collecting total lightning data on storms in the Tennessee Valley region since 2001. Forecasters from nearby National Weather Service (NWS) offices have been ingesting this data for display with other AWIPS products. The current lightning product used by the offices is the lightning source density plot. The new product provides a probabalistic, short-term, graphical forecast of the probability of lightning activity occurring at 5 min intervals over the next 30 minutes . One of the uses of the current lightning source density product by the Huntsville National Weather Service Office is to identify areas of potential for cloud-to-ground flashes based on where LMA total lightning is occurring. This product quantifies that observation. The Lightning Warning Product is derived from total lightning observations from the Washington, D.C. (DCLMA) and North Alabama Lightning Mapping Arrays and cloud-to-ground lightning flashes detected by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Probability predictions are provided for both intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes. The gridded product can be displayed on AWIPS workstations in a manner similar to that of the lightning source density product.

Sensitivity of WRF-chem predictions to dust source function specification in West Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabavi, Seyed Omid; Haimberger, Leopold; Samimi, Cyrus

2017-02-01

Dust storms tend to form in sparsely populated areas covered by only few observations. Dust source maps, known as source functions, are used in dust models to allocate a certain potential of dust release to each place. Recent research showed that the well known Ginoux source function (GSF), currently used in Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-chem), exhibits large errors over some regions in West Asia, particularly near the IRAQ/Syrian border. This study aims to improve the specification of this critical part of dust forecasts. A new source function based on multi-year analysis of satellite observations, called West Asia source function (WASF), is therefore proposed to raise the quality of WRF-chem predictions in the region. WASF has been implemented in three dust schemes of WRF-chem. Remotely sensed and ground-based observations have been used to verify the horizontal and vertical extent and location of simulated dust clouds. Results indicate that WRF-chem performance is significantly improved in many areas after the implementation of WASF. The modified runs (long term simulations over the summers 2008-2012, using nudging) have yielded an average increase of Spearman correlation between observed and forecast aerosol optical thickness by 12-16 percent points compared to control runs with standard source functions. They even outperform MACC and DREAM dust simulations over many dust source regions. However, the quality of the forecasts decreased with distance from sources, probably due to deficiencies in the transport and deposition characteristics of the forecast model in these areas.

Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarola, Amit; Sil, Arjun

2018-04-01

This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737-2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

An expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Runge, Michael C.; Flewelling, Leanne J.; Deutsch, Charles J.; Landsberg, Jan H.

2017-11-20

Red tides (blooms of the harmful alga Karenia brevis) are one of the major sources of mortality for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), especially in southwest Florida. It has been hypothesized that the frequency and severity of red tides may increase in the future because of global climate change and other factors. To improve our ecological forecast for the effects of red tides on manatee population dynamics and long-term persistence, we conducted a formal expert judgment process to estimate probability distributions for the frequency and relative magnitude of red-tide-related manatee mortality (RTMM) events over a 100-year time horizon in three of the four regions recognized as manatee management units in Florida. This information was used to update a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee (the Core Biological Model). We convened a panel of 12 experts in manatee biology or red-tide ecology; the panel met to frame, conduct, and discuss the elicitation. Each expert provided a best estimate and plausible low and high values (bounding a confidence level of 80 percent) for each parameter in each of three regions (Northwest, Southwest, and Atlantic) of the subspecies’ range (excluding the Upper St. Johns River region) for two time periods (0−40 and 41−100 years from present). We fitted probability distributions for each parameter, time period, and expert by using these three elicited values. We aggregated the parameter estimates elicited from individual experts and fitted a parametric distribution to the aggregated results.Across regions, the experts expected the future frequency of RTMM events to be higher than historical levels, which is consistent with the hypothesis that global climate change (among other factors) may increase the frequency of red-tide blooms. The experts articulated considerable uncertainty, however, about the future frequency of RTMM events. The historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM (combined) in the Southwest region was 0.35 (80-percent confidence interval [CI]: 0.21−0.52), whereas the forecast probability was 0.48 (80-percent CI: 0.30−0.64) over a 40-year projected time horizon. Moderate and intense RTMM events are expected to continue to be most frequent in the Southwest region, to increase in mean frequency in the Northwest region (historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM events [combined] in the Northwest region was 0, whereas the forecast probability was 0.12 [80-percent CI: 0.02−0.39] over a 40-year projected time horizon) and in the Atlantic region (historical frequency of moderate and intense RTMM events [combined] in the Atlantic region was 0.05 [80-percent CI: 0.005–0.18], whereas the forecast probability was 0.11 [80-percent CI: 0.03−0.25] over a 40-year projected time horizon), and to remain absent from the Upper St. Johns River region. The impact of red-tide blooms on manatee mortality has been measured for the Southwest region but not for the Northwest and Atlantic regions, where such events have been rare. The expert panel predicted that the median magnitude of RTMM events in the Atlantic and Northwest regions will be much smaller than that in the Southwest; given the large uncertainties, however, they acknowledged the possibility that these events could be larger in their mortality impacts than in the Southwest region. By its nature, forecasting requires expert judgment because it is impossible to have empirical evidence about the future. The large uncertainties in parameter estimates over a 100-year timeframe are to be expected and may also indicate that the training provided to panelists successfully minimized one common pitfall of expert judgment, that of overconfidence. This study has provided useful and needed inputs to the Florida manatee population viability analysis associated with an important and recurrent source of mortality from harmful algal blooms.

MAXI/GSC detection of a probable new X-ray transient MAXI J1820+070

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamuro, T.; Negoro, H.; Yoneyama, T.; Ueno, S.; Tomida, H.; Ishikawa, M.; Sugawara, Y.; Isobe, N.; Shimomukai, R.; Mihara, T.; Sugizaki, M.; Nakahira, S.; Iwakiri, W.; Yatabe, F.; Takao, Y.; Matsuoka, M.; Kawai, N.; Sugita, S.; Yoshii, T.; Tachibana, Y.; Harita, S.; Morita, K.; Yoshida, A.; Sakamoto, T.; Serino, M.; Kawakubo, Y.; Kitaoka, Y.; Hashimoto, T.; Tsunemi, H.; Nakajima, M.; Kawase, T.; Sakamaki, A.; Maruyama, W.; Ueda, Y.; Hori, T.; Tanimoto, A.; Oda, S.; Morita, T.; Yamada, S.; Tsuboi, Y.; Nakamura, Y.; Sasaki, R.; Kawai, H.; Sato, T.; Yamauchi, M.; Hanyu, C.; Hidaka, K.; Yamaoka, K.; Shidatsu, M.

2018-03-01

The MAXI/GSC nova alert system triggered on a bright uncatalogued X-ray transient source at 12:50 UT on 2018 March 11. Using GSC camera GSC_2 and GSC_7 data of 5 scan transits from 2018-03-11 19:48 to 2018-03-12 02:04, we obtain the source position at (R.A., Dec) = (275.112 deg, 7.037 deg) = (18 20 26, +07 02 13) (J2000) with a statistical 90% C.L. elliptical error region with long and short radii of 0.47 deg and 0.38 deg, respectively.

CHATTAHOOCHEE ROADLESS AREA, GEORGIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Arthur E.; Welsh, Robert A.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey indicates that the Chattahoochee Roadless Area, Georgia, offers little promise for the occurrence of mineral resources even though gold, mica, sillimanite, soapstone, dunite, chromite, and nickel have been mined nearby, and source rocks for these commodities are present in the roadless area. Granite gneiss, gneiss, schist, and metasandstone in the roadless area are suitable for stone, crushed rock, or aggregate; however, other sources for these materials are available outside the roadless area, closer to present markets. The potential for the occurrence of hydrocarbons (probably gas) beneath the thick regional thrust sheets in this area cannot be adequately evaluated from available data.

[Determination of wine original regions using information fusion of NIR and MIR spectroscopy].

PubMed

Xiang, Ling-Li; Li, Meng-Hua; Li, Jing-Mingz; Li, Jun-Hui; Zhang, Lu-Da; Zhao, Long-Lian

2014-10-01

Geographical origins of wine grapes are significant factors affecting wine quality and wine prices. Tasters' evaluation is a good method but has some limitations. It is important to discriminate different wine original regions quickly and accurately. The present paper proposed a method to determine wine original regions based on Bayesian information fusion that fused near-infrared (NIR) transmission spectra information and mid-infrared (MIR) ATR spectra information of wines. This method improved the determination results by expanding the sources of analysis information. NIR spectra and MIR spectra of 153 wine samples from four different regions of grape growing were collected by near-infrared and mid-infrared Fourier transform spe trometer separately. These four different regions are Huailai, Yantai, Gansu and Changli, which areall typical geographical originals for Chinese wines. NIR and MIR discriminant models for wine regions were established using partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) based on NIR spectra and MIR spectra separately. In PLS-DA, the regions of wine samples are presented in group of binary code. There are four wine regions in this paper, thereby using four nodes standing for categorical variables. The output nodes values for each sample in NIR and MIR models were normalized first. These values stand for the probabilities of each sample belonging to each category. They seemed as the input to the Bayesian discriminant formula as a priori probability value. The probabilities were substituteed into the Bayesian formula to get posterior probabilities, by which we can judge the new class characteristics of these samples. Considering the stability of PLS-DA models, all the wine samples were divided into calibration sets and validation sets randomly for ten times. The results of NIR and MIR discriminant models of four wine regions were as follows: the average accuracy rates of calibration sets were 78.21% (NIR) and 82.57% (MIR), and the average accuracy rates of validation sets were 82.50% (NIR) and 81.98% (MIR). After using the method proposed in this paper, the accuracy rates of calibration and validation changed to 87.11% and 90.87% separately, which all achieved better results of determination than individual spectroscopy. These results suggest that Bayesian information fusion of NIR and MIR spectra is feasible for fast identification of wine original regions.

Source apportionment of ambient volatile organic compounds in the Pearl River Delta, China: Part II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ying; Shao, Min; Lu, Sihua; Chang, Chih-Chung; Wang, Jia-Lin; Fu, Linlin

The chemical mass balance receptor model was applied to the source apportionment of 58 hydrocarbons measured at seven sites in a field campaign that examined regional air quality in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in the fall of 2004. A total of 12 volatile organic compound (VOC) emission sources were considered, including gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicle exhausts, headspace vapors of gasoline and diesel fuel, vehicle evaporative emissions, liquid petroleum gas (LPG) leakage, paint vapors, asphalt emissions from paved roads, biomass combustion, coal combustion, the chemical industry, and petroleum refineries. Vehicle exhaust was the largest source of VOCs, contributing to >50% of ambient VOCs at the three urban sites (Guangzhou, Foshan, and Zhongshan). LPG leakage played an important role, representing 8-16% of emissions at most sites in the PRD. Solvent usage was the biggest emitter of VOCs at Dongguan, an industrial site, contributing 33% of ambient VOCs. Similarly, at Xinken, a non-urban site, the evaporation of solvents and coatings was the largest emission source, accounting for 31% of emissions, probably because it was downwind of Dongguan. Local biomass combustion was a noticeable source of VOCs at Xinken; although its contribution was estimated at 14.3%, biomass combustion was the third largest VOC source at this site.

Gamma-Ray Emission from the Broad-Line Radio Galaxy 3C 111

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, Robert C.; Kadler, M.; Tueller, Jack

2008-01-01

The broad-line radio galaxy 3C 111 has been suggested as the counterpart of the y-ray source 3EG J0416+3650. While 3C 111 meets most of the criteria for a high-probability identification, like a bright flat-spectrum radio core and a blazar-like broadband SED, in the Third EGRET Catalog, the large positional offset of about 1.5' put 3C 111 outside the 99% probability region for 3EG J0416+3650, making this association questionable. We present a re-analysis of all available archival data for 3C 111 from the EGRET archives, resulting in detection of variable hard-spectrum high-energy gamma-ray emission above 1000 MeV from a position close to the nominal position of 3C 111, in three separate viewing periods (VPs), at a 3sigma level in each. A second variable hard-spectrum source is present nearby. At >100 MeV, one variable soft-spectrum source seems to account for most of the EGRET-detected emission of 3EG J0416+3650. A follow-up Swift UVOT/XRT observation reveals one moderately bright X-ray source in the error box of 3EG J0416+3650, but because of the large EGRET position uncertainty, it is not certain that the X-ray and gamma-ray sources are associated. Another Swift observation near the second (unidentified) hard gamma-ray source detected no X-ray source nearby.

Estructura, Cinemática y Condiciones Físicas del Merger NGC3256

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lípari, S.; Díaz, R. J.; Carranza, G.

We studied in detail the structure, the kinematics, and the physical conditions in the nuclear, central and external regions of the nearby merger and luminous IR source NGC 3256 (LIR = 3.3 × 1011Lsolar). Using broad-- (B, V, I) and narrow--band (Hα, [OIII]λ5007) images --obtained at ESO-NTT and CASLEO during march'89 to july'97-- we studied the properties of the main structures in this merger. In particular, we analyzed in detail the giant HII regions which are extended in the nuclear and central region of NGC 3256 and are probably associated to a massive starburst originated in the merger process of two gas rich spirals galaxies.

The Chandra Xbootes Survey - IV: Mid-Infrared and Submillimeter Counterparts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Arianna; Mitchell-Wynne, Ketron; Cooray, Asantha R.; Nayyeri, Hooshang

2016-06-01

In this work, we use a Bayesian technique to identify mid-IR and submillimeter counterparts for 3,213 X-ray point sources detected in the Chandra XBoötes Survey so as to characterize the relationship between black hole activity and star formation in the XBoötes region. The Chandra XBoötes Survey is a 5-ks X-ray survey of the 9.3 square degree Boötes Field of the NOAO Deep Wide-Field Survey (NDWFS), a survey imaged from the optical to the near-IR. We use a likelihood ratio analysis on Spitzer-IRAC data taken from The Spitzer Deep, Wide-Field Survey (SDWFS) to determine mid-IR counterparts, and a similar method on Herschel-SPIRE sources detected at 250µm from The Herschel Multi-tiered Extragalactic Survey to determine the submillimeter counterparts. The likelihood ratio analysis (LRA) provides the probability that a(n) IRAC or SPIRE point source is the true counterpart to a Chandra source. The analysis is comprised of three parts: the normalized magnitude distributions of counterparts and background sources, and the radial probability distribution of the separation distance between the IRAC or SPIRE source and the Chandra source. Many Chandra sources have multiple prospective counterparts in each band, so additional analysis is performed to determine the identification reliability of the candidates. Identification reliability values lie between 0 and 1, and sources with identification reliability values ≥0.8 are chosen to be the true counterparts. With these results, we will consider the statistical implications of the sample's redshifts, mid-IR and submillimeter luminosities, and star formation rates.

State-of-the-Art for Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the United States. Report 21. Seismic Source Zones of the Eastern United States and Seismic Zoning of the Atlantic Seaboard and Appalachian Regions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-08-01

1812 earthquakes, and this produced Reelfoot Lake (Fuller, 1912). 10. .6. r. .,-- UPLIFT Uplift is known to be occurring in two regions in the...axes, as does the 11 mile (18 km) long Reelfoot Lake , formed during the 1811 and 1812 earthquakes (Fuller, 1912). The trend of the probable fault...the Reelfoot Lake basin to the northeast has subsided (Fig. 37). Monoclinal structure and shallow faults have been located along the scarp between the

Algorithms for bioluminescence tomography incorporating anatomical information and reconstruction of tissue optical properties

PubMed Central

Naser, Mohamed A.; Patterson, Michael S.

2010-01-01

Reconstruction algorithms are presented for a two-step solution of the bioluminescence tomography (BLT) problem. In the first step, a priori anatomical information provided by x-ray computed tomography or by other methods is used to solve the continuous wave (cw) diffuse optical tomography (DOT) problem. A Taylor series expansion approximates the light fluence rate dependence on the optical properties of each region where first and second order direct derivatives of the light fluence rate with respect to scattering and absorption coefficients are obtained and used for the reconstruction. In the second step, the reconstructed optical properties at different wavelengths are used to calculate the Green’s function of the system. Then an iterative minimization solution based on the L1 norm shrinks the permissible regions where the sources are allowed by selecting points with higher probability to contribute to the source distribution. This provides an efficient BLT reconstruction algorithm with the ability to determine relative source magnitudes and positions in the presence of noise. PMID:21258486

Cyclotron emission near stellar mass black holes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apparao, K. M. V.

1984-01-01

Cyclotron emission in the inner regions of an accretion disk around a matter accreting black hole can be appreciable. In the case of the X-ray source Cyg X-1, cyclotron emission may provide the soft photons needed for 'Comptonization' to produce high energy X-rays. The inverse correlation between the fluxes of high energy and low energy X-rays during the 'high' and 'low' states of Cyg X-1, may be understood as a result of the variation of the rate of accretion and the Compton scattering of the cyclotron photons. In the case of the X-ray source GX 339-4, the observed optical flux during the high states does not seem to be due to cyclotron emission, but probably due to reprocessing of high energy X-rays by the outer regions of the disk.

Probability cueing of distractor locations: both intertrial facilitation and statistical learning mediate interference reduction.

PubMed

Goschy, Harriet; Bakos, Sarolta; Müller, Hermann J; Zehetleitner, Michael

2014-01-01

Targets in a visual search task are detected faster if they appear in a probable target region as compared to a less probable target region, an effect which has been termed "probability cueing." The present study investigated whether probability cueing cannot only speed up target detection, but also minimize distraction by distractors in probable distractor regions as compared to distractors in less probable distractor regions. To this end, three visual search experiments with a salient, but task-irrelevant, distractor ("additional singleton") were conducted. Experiment 1 demonstrated that observers can utilize uneven spatial distractor distributions to selectively reduce interference by distractors in frequent distractor regions as compared to distractors in rare distractor regions. Experiments 2 and 3 showed that intertrial facilitation, i.e., distractor position repetitions, and statistical learning (independent of distractor position repetitions) both contribute to the probability cueing effect for distractor locations. Taken together, the present results demonstrate that probability cueing of distractor locations has the potential to serve as a strong attentional cue for the shielding of likely distractor locations.

A GRASS GIS Semi-Stochastic Model for Evaluating the Probability of Landslides Impacting Road Networks in Collazzone, Central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Faith E.; Santangelo, Michele; Marchesini, Ivan; Malamud, Bruce D.

2013-04-01

During a landslide triggering event, the tens to thousands of landslides resulting from the trigger (e.g., earthquake, heavy rainfall) may block a number of sections of the road network, posing a risk to rescue efforts, logistics and accessibility to a region. Here, we present initial results from a semi-stochastic model we are developing to evaluate the probability of landslides intersecting a road network and the network-accessibility implications of this across a region. This was performed in the open source GRASS GIS software, where we took 'model' landslides and dropped them on a 79 km2 test area region in Collazzone, Umbria, Central Italy, with a given road network (major and minor roads, 404 km in length) and already determined landslide susceptibilities. Landslide areas (AL) were randomly selected from a three-parameter inverse gamma probability density function, consisting of a power-law decay of about -2.4 for medium and large values of AL and an exponential rollover for small values of AL; the rollover (maximum probability) occurs at about AL = 400 m.2 The number of landslide areas selected for each triggered event iteration was chosen to have an average density of 1 landslide km-2, i.e. 79 landslide areas chosen randomly for each iteration. Landslides were then 'dropped' over the region semi-stochastically: (i) random points were generated across the study region; (ii) based on the landslide susceptibility map, points were accepted/rejected based on the probability of a landslide occurring at that location. After a point was accepted, it was assigned a landslide area (AL) and length to width ratio. Landslide intersections with roads were then assessed and indices such as the location, number and size of road blockage recorded. The GRASS-GIS model was performed 1000 times in a Monte-Carlo type simulation. Initial results show that for a landslide triggering event of 1 landslide km-2 over a 79 km2 region with 404 km of road, the number of road blockages ranges from 6 to 17, resulting in one road blockage every 24-67 km of roads. The average length of road blocked was 33 m. As we progress with model development and more sophisticated network analysis, we believe this semi-stochastic modelling approach will aid civil protection agencies to get a rough idea for the probability of road network potential damage (road block number and extent) as the result of different magnitude landslide triggering event scenarios.

Biogeography of marine podocopid ostracodes in Micronesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weissleader, L.S.; Gilinsky, N.L.; Ross, R.M.; Cronin, T. M.

1989-01-01

Bottom lagoonal sediment samples from 12 islands and atolls yielded >70 species representing >32 ostracode genera. All or most samples from a particular lagoon generally form distinct subgroups (Jaccard =0.45-0.50). At lower levels, 5 groups delineate faunal regions within Micronesia: the Gilbert Islands (Onotoa) in the SE part of the region, the N Marshall Islands (Enewetak, Rongelap, Bikini), the SE Marshall Islands (Kwajalein, Jaluit, Majuro, Arno), the Marianas and Caroline Islands (Guam, Truk, Pohnpei) and Pingelap. Pingelap, Kwajalein and Onotoa have the highest species richness (S=32-42) and Shannon-Wiener diversity values (H(S)=2.62-3.02) in the study area. Enewetak, Jaluit, Majuro and Arno show lower values (S=23-27, H(S)=2.29-2.70). Of the ostracode species living in Micronesia, 64.3% have Indo-West Pacific affinities, 7.1% are circumtropical, 5.7% have East Pacific-Caribbean affinities, 11.4% are endemic to Micronesia, and 11.4% have unknown affinities. If the SE Asian region is a primary species-source, results show that each Micronesian lagoon is equally likely to be colonized by dispersal from the source region, despite differences in distance from a hypothetical source. However, each lagoon has a distinct ostracode assemblage, probably the result of unique history of random colonization events, local extinctions and environmental disturbances. -from Authors

Sr isotopic composition of Afar volcanics and its implication for mantle evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberi, F.; Civetta, L.; Varet, J.

1980-10-01

Investigations of Rb-Sr systematics of basalts from the Afar depression (Ethiopia) indicate the presence of a heterogeneous mantle source region. The Sr isotopic compositions of the basalts from the Afar axial and transverse ranges identify source regions which are enriched in LIL elements and radiogenic Sr (axial ranges) and others which are relatively depleted (transverse ranges). Sr isotopic composition of basalts from the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Tadjoura, which range from 0.70300 to 0.70340 are also reported and compared with the more radiogenic Afar region, which is characterized by 87Sr/ 86Sr ranging from 0.70328 to 0.70410. Available geochemical and isotopic data suggest that a relation exists between magma composition and the advancement of the rifting process through progressive lithosphere attenuation leading to continental break-up. However, the petrogenetic process is not simple and probably implies a vertically zoned mantle beneath the Afar region. Sr isotopic evidence suggests that the vertically zoned mantle is more radiogenic and enriched in LIL elements in its upper part.

Long-distance plant dispersal to North Atlantic islands: colonization routes and founder effect.

PubMed

Alsos, Inger Greve; Ehrich, Dorothee; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Solstad, Heidi; Westergaard, Kristine Bakke; Schönswetter, Peter; Tribsch, Andreas; Birkeland, Siri; Elven, Reidar; Brochmann, Christian

2015-04-15

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) processes influence the founder effect on islands. We use genetic data for 25 Atlantic species and similarities among regional floras to analyse colonization, and test whether the genetic founder effect on five islands is associated with dispersal distance, island size and species traits. Most species colonized postglacially via multiple dispersal events from several source regions situated 280 to >3000 km away, and often not from the closest ones. A strong founder effect was observed for insect-pollinated mixed maters, and it increased with dispersal distance and decreased with island size in accordance with the theory of island biogeography. Only a minor founder effect was observed for wind-pollinated outcrossing species. Colonization patterns were largely congruent, indicating that despite the importance of stochasticity, LDD is mainly determined by common factors, probably dispersal vectors. Our findings caution against a priori assuming a single, close source region in biogeographic analyses. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Carbonaceous PM(2.5) and secondary organic aerosol across the Veneto region (NE Italy).

PubMed

Khan, Md Badiuzzaman; Masiol, Mauro; Formenton, Gianni; Di Gilio, Alessia; de Gennaro, Gianluigi; Agostinelli, Claudio; Pavoni, Bruno

2016-01-15

Organic and elemental carbon (OC-EC) were measured in 360 PM2.5 samples collected from April 2012 to February 2013 at six provinces in the Veneto region, to determine the factors affecting the carbonaceous aerosol variations. The 60 daily samples have been collected simultaneously in all sites during 10 consecutive days for 6 months (April, June, August, October, December and February). OC ranged from 0.98 to 22.34 μg/m(3), while the mean value was 5.5 μg/m(3), contributing 79% of total carbon. EC concentrations fluctuated from 0.19 to 11.90 μg/m(3) with an annual mean value of 1.31 μg/m(3) (19% of the total carbon). The monthly OC concentration gradually increased from April to December. The EC did not vary in accordance with OC. However the highest values for both parameters were recorded in the cold period. The mean OC/EC ratio is 4.54, which is higher than the values observed in most of the other European cities. The secondary organic carbon (SOC) contributed for 69% of the total OC and this was confirmed by both the approaches OC/EC minimum ratio and regression. The results show that OC, EC and SOC exhibited higher concentration during winter months in all measurement sites, suggesting that the stable atmosphere and lower mixing play important role for the accumulation of air pollutant and hasten the condensation or adsorption of volatile organic compounds over the Veneto region. Significant meteorological factors controlling OC and EC were investigated by fitting linear models and using a robust procedure based on weighted likelihood, suggesting that low wind speed and temperature favour accumulation of emissions from local sources. Conditional probability function and conditional bivariate probability function plots indicate that both biomass burning and vehicular traffic are probably the main local sources for carbonaceous particulate matter emissions in two selected cities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cross-sectional study to estimate the prevalence of enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli on hides of market beef cows at harvest.

PubMed

Schneider, L G; Stromberg, Z R; Lewis, G L; Moxley, R A; Smith, D R

2018-03-25

Cattle hides are an important source of enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) carcass contamination at slaughter. Seven EHEC serogroups are adulterants in raw, non-intact beef: EHEC O26, O45, O103, O111, O121, O145 and O157. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability for hide contamination with EHEC among US market beef cows at slaughter and to test the effects of season and geographic region on prevalence of hide contamination. Hides (n = 800) of market cows were swabbed at slaughter immediately after exsanguination, prior to hide removal. Cows were sampled from two geographically distinct beef packing plants during four seasons of 2015. Cattle source was categorized by northern or southern region. Samples were tested for EHEC by a molecular screening assay. The effects of region, season and their interaction on the probability of hide contamination by each EHEC serogroup were tested in separate multilevel multivariable logistic regression models, accounting for the random effect of clustering by plant. Statistical significance was set α = .05. Of 800 total samples, at least one EHEC was detected on 630 (79%) hides. Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli O26 was detected on 129 (16%) of all hides sampled, EHEC O45 on 437 (55%), EHEC O103 on 289 (36%), EHEC O111 on 189 (24%), EHEC O121 on 140 (18%), EHEC O145 on 171 (21%) and EHEC O157 on 89 (11%). Detection of EHEC O26 and EHEC O121 was associated with season. Season and region were associated with detecting EHEC O45 and EHEC O157. Season-by-region interactions were associated with the outcome of detecting EHEC O103, EHEC O111 and EHEC O145. Season, region of origin and the interaction of these factors affect hide contamination of market beef cattle at slaughter by EHEC, and each serogroup responds to these factors uniquely. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Self-focusing of a high current density ion beam extracted with concave electrodes in a low energy region around 150 eV.

PubMed

Hirano, Y; Kiyama, S; Koguchi, H; Sakakita, H

2014-02-01

Spontaneous self-focusing of ion beam with high current density (Jc ∼ 2 mA/cm(2), Ib ∼ 65 mA) in low energy region (∼150 eV) is observed in a hydrogen ion beam extracted from an ordinary bucket type ion source with three electrodes having concave shape (acceleration, deceleration, and grounded electrodes). The focusing appears abruptly in the beam energy region over ∼135-150 eV, and the Jc jumps up from 0.7 to 2 mA/cm(2). Simultaneously a strong electron flow also appears in the beam region. The electron flow has almost the same current density. Probably these electrons compensate the ion space charge and suppress the beam divergence.

Upwelling regime off the Cabo Frio region in Brazil and impact on acoustic propagation.

PubMed

Calado, Leandro; Camargo Rodríguez, Orlando; Codato, Gabriel; Contrera Xavier, Fabio

2018-03-01

This work introduces a description of the complex upwelling regime off the Cabo Frio region in Brazil and shows that ocean modeling, based on the feature-oriented regional modeling system (FORMS) technique, can produce reliable predictions of sound speed fields for the corresponding shallow water environment. This work also shows, through the development of simulations, that the upwelling regime can be responsible for the creation of shadow coastal zones, in which the detection probability is too low for an acoustic source to be detected. The development of the FORMS technique and its validation with real data, for the particular region of coastal upwelling off Cabo Frio, reveals the possibility of a sustainable and reliable forecast system for the corresponding (variable in space and time) underwater acoustic environment.

SHRIMP and 40Ar/39Ar age constraints for timing of plutonism and mineralization in the Boulder batholith

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lund, K.D.; Aleinikoff, John N.; Kunk, Michael J.; Unruh, Dan M.; Zeihen, G.D.; Hodges, W.C.; du Bray, Edward A.; O'Neill, J. Michael

2002-01-01

The 66 Ma age for the quartz monzodiorite of Boulder Baldy and consideration of previous dating studies in the region indicate that small ca. 66 Ma plutonic systems may be common in the Boulder batholith region and especially to the east. The approximately 64 Ma porphyry copper systems at Butte and gold mineralization at Miller Mountain are indicative of regionally important mineralizing systems of this age in the Boulder batholith region. Resolution of the age and probable magmatic source of the Butte pre-Main Stage porphyry copper-molybdenum system and of the silver-rich polymetallic quartz vein systems in the northern part of the Boulder batholith documents that these deposits formed from two discrete periods of hydrothermal mineralization related to two discrete magmatic events.

Trends in marine debris in the U.S. Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, 1996-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ribic, Christine; Seba B. Sheavly,; Rugg, David J.

2011-01-01

Marine debris is a widespread and globally recognized problem. Sound information is necessary to understand the extent of the problem and to inform resource managers and policy makers about potential mitigation strategies. Although there are many short-term studies on marine debris, a longer-term perspective and the ability to compare among regions has heretofore been missing in the U.S. Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. We used data from a national beach monitoring program to evaluate and compare amounts, composition, and trends of indicator marine debris in the U.S. Caribbean (Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands) and the Gulf of Mexico from 1996 to 2003. Indicator items provided a standardized set that all surveys collected; each was assigned a probable source: ocean-based, land-based, or general-source. Probable ocean-based debris was related to activities such as recreational boating/fishing, commercial fishing and activities on oil/gas platforms. Probable land-based debris was related to land-based recreation and sewer systems. General-source debris represented plastic items that can come from either ocean- or land-based sources; these items were plastic bags, strapping bands, and plastic bottles (excluding motor oil containers). Debris loads were similar between the U.S. Caribbean and the western Gulf of Mexico; however, debris composition on U.S. Caribbean beaches was dominated by land-based indicators while the western Gulf of Mexico was dominated by ocean-based indicators. Beaches along the eastern Gulf of Mexico had the lowest counts of debris; composition was dominated by land-based indicators, similar to that found for the U.S. Caribbean. Debris loads on beaches in the Gulf of Mexico are likely affected by Gulf circulation patterns, reducing loads in the eastern Gulf and increasing loads in the western Gulf. Over the seven years of monitoring, we found a large linear decrease in total indicator debris, as well as all source categories, for the U.S. Caribbean. Lower magnitude decreases were seen in indicator debris along the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In contrast, only land-based indicators declined in the western Gulf of Mexico; total, ocean-based and general-source indicators remained unchanged. Decreases in land-based indicators were not related to human population in the coastal regions; human population increased in all regions over the time of the study. Significant monthly patterns for indicator debris were found only in the Gulf of Mexico; counts were highest during May through September, with peaks occurring in July. Inclement weather conditions before the time of the survey also accounted for some of the variation in the western Gulf of Mexico; fewer items were found when there were heavy seas or cold fronts in the weeks prior to the survey, while tropical storms (including hurricanes) increased the amount of debris. With the development around the globe of long-term monitoring programs using standardized methodology, there is the potential to help management at individual sites, as well as generate larger-scale perspectives (from regional to global) to inform decision makers. Incorporating mechanisms producing debris into marine debris programs would be a fruitful area for future research.

Features of Radiation and Propagation of Seismic Waves in the Northern Caucasus: Manifestations in Regional Coda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kromskii, S. D.; Pavlenko, O. V.; Gabsatarova, I. P.

2018-03-01

Based on the Anapa (ANN) seismic station records of 40 earthquakes ( M W > 3.9) that occurred within 300 km of the station since 2002 up to the present time, the source parameters and quality factor of the Earth's crust ( Q( f)) and upper mantle are estimated for the S-waves in the 1-8 Hz frequency band. The regional coda analysis techniques which allow separating the effects associated with seismic source (source effects) and with the propagation path of seismic waves (path effects) are employed. The Q-factor estimates are obtained in the form Q( f) = 90 × f 0.7 for the epicentral distances r < 120 km and in the form Q( f) = 90 × f1.0 for r > 120 km. The established Q( f) and source parameters are close to the estimates for Central Japan, which is probably due to the similar tectonic structure of the regions. The shapes of the source parameters are found to be independent of the magnitude of the earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.9-5.6; however, the radiation of the high-frequency components ( f > 4-5 Hz) is enhanced with the depth of the source (down to h 60 km). The estimates Q( f) of the quality factor determined from the records by the Sochi, Anapa, and Kislovodsk seismic stations allowed a more accurate determination of the seismic moments and magnitudes of the Caucasian earthquakes. The studies will be continued for obtaining the Q( f) estimates, geometrical spreading functions, and frequency-dependent amplification of seismic waves in the Earth's crust in the other regions of the Northern Caucasus.

Atmospheric speciated mercury concentrations on an island between China and Korea: sources and transport pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, G.-S.; Kim, P.-R.; Han, Y.-J.; Holsen, T. M.; Seo, Y.-S.; Yi, S.-M.

2015-11-01

As a global pollutant, mercury (Hg) is of particular concern in East Asia where anthropogenic emissions are the largest. In this study, speciated Hg concentrations were measured in the western most island in Korea, located between China and the Korean mainland to identify the importance of local, regional and distant Hg sources. Various tools including correlations with other pollutants, conditional probability function, and back-trajectory based analysis consistently indicated that Korean sources were important for gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) whereas, for total gaseous mercury (TGM) and particulate bound mercury (PBM), long-range and regional transport were also important. A trajectory cluster based approach considering both Hg concentration and the fraction of time each cluster was impacting the site was developed to quantify the effect of Korean sources and out-of-Korean source. This analysis suggests that Korean sources contributed approximately 55 % of the GOM and PBM while there were approximately equal contributions from Korean and out-of-Korean sources for the TGM measured at the site. The ratio of GOM / PBM decreased when the site was impacted by long-range transport, suggesting that this ratio may be a useful tool for identifying the relative significance of local sources vs. long-range transport. The secondary formation of PBM through gas-particle partitioning with GOM was found to be important at low temperatures and high relative humidity.

Estimating migratory connectivity of birds when re-encounter probabilities are heterogeneous

PubMed Central

Cohen, Emily B; Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Royle, J Andrew; Marra, Peter P

2014-01-01

Understanding the biology and conducting effective conservation of migratory species requires an understanding of migratory connectivity – the geographic linkages of populations between stages of the annual cycle. Unfortunately, for most species, we are lacking such information. The North American Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) houses an extensive database of marking, recaptures and recoveries, and such data could provide migratory connectivity information for many species. To date, however, few species have been analyzed for migratory connectivity largely because heterogeneous re-encounter probabilities make interpretation problematic. We accounted for regional variation in re-encounter probabilities by borrowing information across species and by using effort covariates on recapture and recovery probabilities in a multistate capture–recapture and recovery model. The effort covariates were derived from recaptures and recoveries of species within the same regions. We estimated the migratory connectivity for three tern species breeding in North America and over-wintering in the tropics, common (Sterna hirundo), roseate (Sterna dougallii), and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia). For western breeding terns, model-derived estimates of migratory connectivity differed considerably from those derived directly from the proportions of re-encounters. Conversely, for eastern breeding terns, estimates were merely refined by the inclusion of re-encounter probabilities. In general, eastern breeding terns were strongly connected to eastern South America, and western breeding terns were strongly linked to the more western parts of the nonbreeding range under both models. Through simulation, we found this approach is likely useful for many species in the BBL database, although precision improved with higher re-encounter probabilities and stronger migratory connectivity. We describe an approach to deal with the inherent biases in BBL banding and re-encounter data to demonstrate that this large dataset is a valuable source of information about the migratory connectivity of the birds of North America. PMID:24967083

Estimating migratory connectivity of birds when re-encounter probabilities are heterogeneous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, Emily B.; Hostelter, Jeffrey A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Marra, Peter P.

2014-01-01

Understanding the biology and conducting effective conservation of migratory species requires an understanding of migratory connectivity – the geographic linkages of populations between stages of the annual cycle. Unfortunately, for most species, we are lacking such information. The North American Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) houses an extensive database of marking, recaptures and recoveries, and such data could provide migratory connectivity information for many species. To date, however, few species have been analyzed for migratory connectivity largely because heterogeneous re-encounter probabilities make interpretation problematic. We accounted for regional variation in re-encounter probabilities by borrowing information across species and by using effort covariates on recapture and recovery probabilities in a multistate capture–recapture and recovery model. The effort covariates were derived from recaptures and recoveries of species within the same regions. We estimated the migratory connectivity for three tern species breeding in North America and over-wintering in the tropics, common (Sterna hirundo), roseate (Sterna dougallii), and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia). For western breeding terns, model-derived estimates of migratory connectivity differed considerably from those derived directly from the proportions of re-encounters. Conversely, for eastern breeding terns, estimates were merely refined by the inclusion of re-encounter probabilities. In general, eastern breeding terns were strongly connected to eastern South America, and western breeding terns were strongly linked to the more western parts of the nonbreeding range under both models. Through simulation, we found this approach is likely useful for many species in the BBL database, although precision improved with higher re-encounter probabilities and stronger migratory connectivity. We describe an approach to deal with the inherent biases in BBL banding and re-encounter data to demonstrate that this large dataset is a valuable source of information about the migratory connectivity of the birds of North America.

A Waveform Detector that Targets Template-Decorrelated Signals and Achieves its Predicted Performance: Demonstration with IMS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, J.

2016-12-01

Waveform correlation detectors used in seismic monitoring scan multichannel data to test two competing hypotheses: that data contain (1) a noisy, amplitude-scaled version of a template waveform, or, (2) only noise. In reality, seismic wavefields include signals triggered by non-target sources (background seismicity) and target signals that are only partially correlated with the waveform template. We reform the waveform correlation detector hypothesis test to accommodate deterministic uncertainty in template/target waveform similarity and thereby derive a new detector from convex set projections (the "cone detector") for use in explosion monitoring. Our analyses give probability density functions that quantify the detectors' degraded performance with decreasing waveform similarity. We then apply our results to three announced North Korean nuclear tests and use International Monitoring System (IMS) arrays to determine the probability that low magnitude, off-site explosions can be reliably detected with a given waveform template. We demonstrate that cone detectors provide (1) an improved predictive capability over correlation detectors to identify such spatially separated explosive sources, (2) competitive detection rates, and (3) reduced false alarms on background seismicity. Figure Caption: Observed and predicted receiver operating characteristic curves for correlation statistic r(x) (left) and cone statistic s(x) (right) versus semi-empirical explosion magnitude. a: Shaded region shows range of ROC curves for r(x) that give the predicted detection performance in noise conditions recorded over 24 hrs on 8 October 2006. Superimposed stair plot shows the empirical detection performance (recorded detections/total events) averaged over 24 hr of data. Error bars indicate the demeaned range in observed detection probability over the day; means are removed to avoid risk of misinterpreting range to indicate probabilities can exceed one. b: Shaded region shows range of ROC curves for s(x) that give the predicted detection performance for the cone detector. Superimposed stair plot show observed detection performance averaged over 24 hr of data analogous to that shown in a.

Multi-Sensor Integration to Map Odor Distribution for the Detection of Chemical Sources.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang; Acar, Levent

2016-07-04

This paper addresses the problem of mapping odor distribution derived from a chemical source using multi-sensor integration and reasoning system design. Odor localization is the problem of finding the source of an odor or other volatile chemical. Most localization methods require a mobile vehicle to follow an odor plume along its entire path, which is time consuming and may be especially difficult in a cluttered environment. To solve both of the above challenges, this paper proposes a novel algorithm that combines data from odor and anemometer sensors, and combine sensors' data at different positions. Initially, a multi-sensor integration method, together with the path of airflow was used to map the pattern of odor particle movement. Then, more sensors are introduced at specific regions to determine the probable location of the odor source. Finally, the results of odor source location simulation and a real experiment are presented.

Understanding the Groundwater Hydrology of a Geographically-Isolated Prairie Fen: Implications for Conservation.

PubMed

Sampath, Prasanna Venkatesh; Liao, Hua-Sheng; Curtis, Zachary Kristopher; Doran, Patrick J; Herbert, Matthew E; May, Christopher A; Li, Shu-Guang

2015-01-01

The sources of water and corresponding delivery mechanisms to groundwater-fed fens are not well understood due to the multi-scale geo-morphologic variability of the glacial landscape in which they occur. This lack of understanding limits the ability to effectively conserve these systems and the ecosystem services they provide, including biodiversity and water provisioning. While fens tend to occur in clusters around regional groundwater mounds, Ives Road Fen in southern Michigan is an example of a geographically-isolated fen. In this paper, we apply a multi-scale groundwater modeling approach to understand the groundwater sources for Ives Road fen. We apply Transition Probability geo-statistics on more than 3000 well logs from a state-wide water well database to characterize the complex geology using conditional simulations. We subsequently implement a 3-dimensional reverse particle tracking to delineate groundwater contribution areas to the fen. The fen receives water from multiple sources: local recharge, regional recharge from an extensive till plain, a regional groundwater mound, and a nearby pond. The regional sources deliver water through a tortuous, 3-dimensional "pipeline" consisting of a confined aquifer lying beneath an extensive clay layer. Water in this pipeline reaches the fen by upwelling through openings in the clay layer. The pipeline connects the geographically-isolated fen to the same regional mound that provides water to other fen clusters in southern Michigan. The major implication of these findings is that fen conservation efforts must be expanded from focusing on individual fens and their immediate surroundings, to studying the much larger and inter-connected hydrologic network that sustains multiple fens.

Measurements of scalar released from point sources in a turbulent boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talluru, K. M.; Hernandez-Silva, C.; Philip, J.; Chauhan, K. A.

2017-04-01

Measurements of velocity and concentration fluctuations for a horizontal plume released at several wall-normal locations in a turbulent boundary layer (TBL) are discussed in this paper. The primary objective of this study is to establish a systematic procedure to acquire accurate single-point concentration measurements for a substantially long time so as to obtain converged statistics of long tails of probability density functions of concentration. Details of the calibration procedure implemented for long measurements are presented, which include sensor drift compensation to eliminate the increase in average background concentration with time. While most previous studies reported measurements where the source height is limited to, {{s}z}/δ ≤slant 0.2 , where s z is the wall-normal source height and δ is the boundary layer thickness, here results of concentration fluctuations when the plume is released in the outer layer are emphasised. Results of mean and root-mean-square (r.m.s.) profiles of concentration for elevated sources agree with the well-accepted reflected Gaussian model (Fackrell and Robins 1982 J. Fluid. Mech. 117). However, there is clear deviation from the reflected Gaussian model for source in the intermittent region of TBL particularly at locations higher than the source itself. Further, we find that the plume half-widths are different for the mean and r.m.s. concentration profiles. Long sampling times enabled us to calculate converged probability density functions at high concentrations and these are found to exhibit exponential distribution.

Origin of ultramafic-hosted magnesite on Margarita Island, Venezuela

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abu-Jaber, N. S.; Kimberley, M. M.

1992-06-01

Ultramafic-hosted deposits of magnesite (MgCO3) have been studied on Margarita Island, Venezuela, to elucidate the source of carbon and conditions of formation for this type of ore. Petrographic, mineralogic, and δ18O data indicate that magnesite precipitated on Margarita in near-surface environments at low P and T. δ13C ranges from -9 to -16‰ PDB within the magnesite and -8 to -10‰ PDB within some calcite and dolomite elsewhere on the island. The isotopically light dolomite fills karst and the calcite occurs as stock-work veins which resemble the magnesite deposits. These carbon isotopic ratios are consistent with a deep-seated source rather than an overlying source from a zone of surficial weathering. However, there is not much enrichment of precious metals and no enrichment of heavy rare-earth elements, as would be expected if the carbon had migrated upward as aqueous carbonate ions. The carbon probably has risen as a gaseous mixture of CO2 and CH4 which partially dissolved in near-surface water before leaching cations and precipitating as magnesite and other carbonates. The process probably is ongoing, given regional exhalation of carbonaceous gases.

Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Widlansky, Matthew J; Balmaseda, Magdalena A; Stott, Lowell

2017-07-26

Past severe droughts over North America have led to massive water shortages and increases in wildfire frequency. Triggering sources for multi-year droughts in this region include randomly occurring atmospheric blocking patterns, ocean impacts on atmospheric circulation, and climate's response to anthropogenic radiative forcings. A combination of these sources translates into a difficulty to predict the onset and length of such droughts on multi-year timescales. Here we present results from a new multi-year dynamical prediction system that exhibits a high degree of skill in forecasting wildfire probabilities and drought for 10-23 and 10-45 months lead time, which extends far beyond the current seasonal prediction activities for southwestern North America. Using a state-of-the-art earth system model along with 3-dimensional ocean data assimilation and by prescribing the external radiative forcings, this system simulates the observed low-frequency variability of precipitation, soil water, and wildfire probabilities in close agreement with observational records and reanalysis data. The underlying source of multi-year predictability can be traced back to variations of the Atlantic/Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, external radiative forcings, and the low-pass filtering characteristics of soils.

Water resources of the Green Bay area, Wisconsin: G in Water resources of industrial regions: A summary of the source, occurrence, availability, and use of water in the area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knowles, Doyle Blewer; Dreher, F.C.; Whetstone, George Walter

1964-01-01

In an emergency, industrial and public supply wells could supply at least 6 mgd for a sustained period and probably as much as 10 mgd for a period of several days. Six of the wells that formerly supplied the city of Green Bay are maintained in operating condition and could furnish about the same quantity of water as the industrial and other public supply wells. Small streams in the area would be supplemental sources of water, and the water in the Fox River and Green Bay is easily accessible.

Monitoring the Galactic - Search for Hard X-Ray Transients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Francis

Hard X-ray transients with fluxs from ~1 to ~30 mCrab are a common feature of the galactic plane with apparent concentrations in specific regions of the plane. Concentrations in the Scutum and Carina fields probably indicate an enhancement of Be X-ray binaries along the tangent direction of two spiral arms. The frequency of outbursts suggest that at any one time 1 or 2 transients are active in the Scutum field alone. We propose weekly scans of the galactic plane to understand this population of sources. The scans will also monitor about 50 already known sources with better spectral information than available with the ASM.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

F. Perry

Studies of volcanic risk to the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain have been ongoing for 25 years. These studies are required because three episodes of small-volume, alkalic basaltic volcanism have occurred within 50 km of Yucca Mountain during the Quaternary. Probabilistic hazard estimates for the proposed repository depend on the recurrence rate and spatial distribution of past episodes of volcanism in the region. Several independent research groups have published estimates of the annual probability of a future volcanic disruption of the proposed repository, most of which fall in the range of 10{sup -7} to 10{sup -9} permore » year; similar conclusions were reached. through an extensive expert elicitation sponsored by the Department of Energy in 1995-1996. The estimated probability values are dominated by a regional recurrence rate of 10{sup -5} to 10{sup -6} volcanic events per year (equating to recurrence intervals of several hundred thousand years). The recurrence rate, as well as the spatial density of volcanoes, is low compared to most other basaltic volcanic fields in the western United States, factors that may be related to both the tectonic history of the region and a lithospheric mantle source that is relatively cold and not prone to melting. The link between volcanism and tectonism in the Yucca Mountain region is not well understood beyond a general association between volcanism and regional extension, although areas of locally high extension within the region may control the location of some volcanoes. Recently, new geologic data or hypotheses have emerged that could potentially increase past estimates of the recurrence rate, and thus the probability of repository disruption. These are (1) hypothesized episodes of anomalously high strain rate, (2) hypothesized presence of a regional mantle hotspot, and (3) new aeromagnetic data suggesting as many as twelve previously unrecognized volcanoes buried in alluvial-filled basins near Yucca Mountain.« less

Earthquake forecast for the Wasatch Front region of the Intermountain West

USGS Publications Warehouse

DuRoss, Christopher B.

2016-04-18

The Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities has assessed the probability of large earthquakes in the Wasatch Front region. There is a 43 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.75 or greater earthquakes and a 57 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquakes in the region in the next 50 years. These results highlight the threat of large earthquakes in the region.

Fire-probability maps for the Brazilian Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, M.; Nobre, C.; Obregon, G.; Sampaio, G.

2009-04-01

Most fires in Amazonia result from the combination between climate and land-use factors. They occur mainly in the dry season and are used as an inexpensive tool for land clearing and management. However, their unintended consequences are of important concern. Fire emissions are the most important sources of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the region, accidental fires are a major threat to protected areas, and frequent fires may lead to permanent conversion of forest areas into savannas. Fire-activity models have thus become important tools for environmental analyses in Amazonia. They are used, for example, in warning systems for monitoring the risk of burnings in protected areas, to improve the description of biogeochemical cycles and vegetation composition in ecosystem models, and to help estimate the long-term potential for savannas in biome models. Previous modeling studies for the whole region were produced in units of satellite fire pixels, which complicate their direct use for environmental applications. By reinterpreting remote-sensing based data using a statistical approach, we were able to calibrate models for the whole region in units of probability, or chance of fires to occur. The application of these models for years 2005 and 2006 provided maps of fire potential at 3-month and 0.25-deg resolution as a function of precipitation and distance from main roads. In both years, the performance of the resulting maps was better for the period July-September. During these months, most of satellite-based fire observations were located in areas with relatively high chance of fire, as determined by the modeled probability maps. In addition to reproduce reasonably well the areas presenting maximum fire activity as detected by remote sensing, the new results in units of probability are easier to apply than previous estimates from fire-pixel models.

Fire-probability maps for the Brazilian Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardoso, Manoel; Sampaio, Gilvan; Obregon, Guillermo; Nobre, Carlos

2010-05-01

Most fires in Amazonia result from the combination between climate and land-use factors. They occur mainly in the dry season and are used as an inexpensive tool for land clearing and management. However, their unintended consequences are of important concern. Fire emissions are the most important sources of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the region, accidental fires are a major threat to protected areas, and frequent fires may lead to permanent conversion of forest areas into savannas. Fire-activity models have thus become important tools for environmental analyses in Amazonia. They are used, for example, in warning systems for monitoring the risk of burnings in protected areas, to improve the description of biogeochemical cycles and vegetation composition in ecosystem models, and to help estimate the long-term potential for savannas in biome models. Previous modeling studies for the whole region were produced in units of satellite fire pixels, which complicate their direct use for environmental applications. By reinterpreting remote-sensing based data using a statistical approach, we were able to calibrate models for the whole region in units of probability, or chance of fires to occur. The application of these models for years 2005 and 2006 provided maps of fire potential at 3-month and 0.25-deg resolution as a function of precipitation and distance from main roads. In both years, the performance of the resulting maps was better for the period July-September. During these months, most of satellite-based fire observations were located in areas with relatively high chance of fire, as determined by the modeled probability maps. In addition to reproduce reasonably well the areas presenting maximum fire activity as detected by remote sensing, the new results in units of probability are easier to apply than previous estimates from fire-pixel models.

Estimation of source locations of total gaseous mercury measured in New York State using trajectory-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Young-Ji; Holsen, Thomas M.; Hopke, Philip K.

Ambient gaseous phase mercury concentrations (TGM) were measured at three locations in NY State including Potsdam, Stockton, and Sterling from May 2000 to March 2005. Using these data, three hybrid receptor models incorporating backward trajectories were used to identify source areas for TGM. The models used were potential source contribution function (PSCF), residence time weighted concentration (RTWC), and simplified quantitative transport bias analysis (SQTBA). Each model was applied using multi-site measurements to resolve the locations of important mercury sources for New York State. PSCF results showed that southeastern New York, Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Virginia were important TGM source areas for these sites. RTWC identified Canadian sources including the metal production facilities in Ontario and Quebec, but US regional sources including the Ohio River Valley were also resolved. Sources in southeastern NY, Massachusetts, western Pennsylvania, Indiana, and northern Illinois were identified to be significant by SQTBA. The three modeling results were combined to locate the most important probable source locations, and those are Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin. The Atlantic Ocean was suggested to be a possible source as well.

Tracing meteorite source regions through asteroid spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Cristina Ana

By virtue of their landing on Earth, meteorites reside in near-Earth object (NEO) orbits prior to their arrival. Thus the population of observable NEOs, in principle, gives the best representation of meteorite source bodies. By linking meteorites to NEOs, and linking NEOs to their most likely main-belt source locations, we seek to gain insight into the original solar system formation locations for different meteorite classes. To forge the first link between meteorites and NEOs, we have developed a three dimensional method for quantitative comparisons between laboratory measurements of meteorites and telescopic measurements of near-Earth objects. We utilize meteorite spectra from the Reflectance Experiment Laboratory (RELAB) database and NEO data from the SpeX instrument on the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). Using the Modified Gaussian Model (MGM) as a mathematical tool, we treat asteroid and meteorite spectra identically in the calculation of 1-micron and 2-micron geometric band centers and their band area ratios (BARs). Using these identical numerical parameters we quantitatively compare the spectral properties of S-, Sq-, Q- and V-type NEOs with the spectral properties of the meteorites in the H, L, LL and HED meteorite classes. For each NEO spectrum, we assign a set of probabilities for it being related to each of these meteorite classes. Our NEO- meteorite correlation probabilities are then convolved with NEO-source region probabilities to yield a final set of meteorite-source region correlations. An apparent (significant at the 2.1-sigma level) source region signature is found for the H chondrites to be preferentially delivered to the inner solar system through the 3:1 mean motion resonance. A 3:1 resonance H chondrite source region is consistent with the short cosmic ray exposure ages known for H chondrites. The spectroscopy of asteroids is subject to several sources of inherent error. The source region model used a variety of S-type spectra without attempting to infer mineralogy. Yet work by Gaffey et al. (1993) describes the S-asteroid class as home to a wide variety of mineralogies. Using data from the Small Main-belt Asteroid Spectroscopic Survey (SMASS), the 24-color asteroid survey and the 52-color asteroid survey, the spectral parameters of subclass members are investigated to predict possible errors to our model. While spectra are a diagnostic tool, there are factors inherent to the environment of near-Earth asteroids that pose ambiguities, such as grain size, temperature and space weathering. These factors are difficult to deconvolve from the compositional signal and are addressed here by simulated effects on meteorites from RELAB, Moroz et al. (2000) and Strazzulla et al (2005). A long-standing puzzle in asteroid science is the space weathering process and its implications for the relationship between S-type asteroids and ordinary chondrites. While Q-type asteroids are most spectrally similar to ordinary chondrites, these meteorites share certain diagnostic similarities with S-type asteroids. Binzel et al. (2004) statistically demonstrated a trend in spectral slope in near-Earth objects from 0.1 to 5 km. This analysis provided a missing link between the Q- and S-type by showing a reddening of spectral slope with larger diameter that corresponds to a transition from Q-type asteroid spectra to S-type asteroid spectra. This reddening of spectral slope is attributed to the effects of space weathering on the observable surface composition. This work shows preliminary results of a photometric survey of small Koronis family members. Observations of these objects were obtained in visible and near- infrared Harris and Sloan filters. Due to their common origin, Koronis family members have shown similar S-type spectroscopic signatures. We assume this consistency applies to the small-unclassified bodies. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the effects of the space weathering process on potentially ordinary chondrite-like bodies within a population of identical initial conditions. By examining a size range similar to the Binzel et al. work we hope to compare the slope reddening transition sizes within the near-Earth population and the main-belt. This data set should prove crucial to our understanding of the space weathering process and its relevant timescales. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.)

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-11-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Bayesian statistics applied to the location of the source of explosions at Stromboli Volcano, Italy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saccorotti, G.; Chouet, B.; Martini, M.; Scarpa, R.

1998-01-01

We present a method for determining the location and spatial extent of the source of explosions at Stromboli Volcano, Italy, based on a Bayesian inversion of the slowness vector derived from frequency-slowness analyses of array data. The method searches for source locations that minimize the error between the expected and observed slowness vectors. For a given set of model parameters, the conditional probability density function of slowness vectors is approximated by a Gaussian distribution of expected errors. The method is tested with synthetics using a five-layer velocity model derived for the north flank of Stromboli and a smoothed velocity model derived from a power-law approximation of the layered structure. Application to data from Stromboli allows for a detailed examination of uncertainties in source location due to experimental errors and incomplete knowledge of the Earth model. Although the solutions are not constrained in the radial direction, excellent resolution is achieved in both transverse and depth directions. Under the assumption that the horizontal extent of the source does not exceed the crater dimension, the 90% confidence region in the estimate of the explosive source location corresponds to a small volume extending from a depth of about 100 m to a maximum depth of about 300 m beneath the active vents, with a maximum likelihood source region located in the 120- to 180-m-depth interval.

Genetic reconstruction of a bullfrog invasion to elucidate vectors of introduction and secondary spread

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kamath, Pauline L.; Sepulveda, Adam; Layhee, Megan J.

2016-01-01

Reconstructing historical colonization pathways of an invasive species is critical for uncovering factors that determine invasion success and for designing management strategies. The American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) is endemic to eastern North America, but now has a global distribution and is considered to be one of the worst invaders in the world. In Montana, several introduced populations have been reported, but little is known of their sources and vectors of introduction and secondary spread. We evaluated the genetic composition of introduced populations at local (Yellowstone River floodplain) and regional (Montana and Wyoming) scales in contrast to native range populations. Our objectives were to (1) estimate the number of introductions, (2) identify probable native sources, (3) evaluate genetic variation relative to sources, and (4) characterize properties of local- and regional-scale spread. We sequenced 937 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome b locus in 395 tadpoles collected along 100 km of the Yellowstone River, from three additional sites in MT and a proximate site in WY. Pairwise ΦST revealed high divergence among nonnative populations, suggesting at least four independent introductions into MT from diverse sources. Three cyt b haplotypes were identical to native haplotypes distributed across the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, and AMOVA confirmed the western native region as a likely source. While haplotype (Hd = 0.69) and nucleotide diversity (π = 0.005) were low in introduced bullfrogs, the levels of diversity did not differ significantly from source populations. In the Yellowstone, two identified haplotypes implied few introduction vectors and a significant relationship between genetic and river distance was found. Evidence for multiple invasions and lack of subsequent regional spread emphasizes the importance of enforcing legislation prohibiting bullfrog importation and the need for continuing public education to prevent transport of bullfrogs in MT. More broadly, this study demonstrates how genetic approaches can reveal key properties of a biological invasion to inform management strategies.

Method for Identifying Probable Archaeological Sites from Remotely Sensed Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilton, James C.; Comer, Douglas C.; Priebe, Carey E.; Sussman, Daniel

2011-01-01

Archaeological sites are being compromised or destroyed at a catastrophic rate in most regions of the world. The best solution to this problem is for archaeologists to find and study these sites before they are compromised or destroyed. One way to facilitate the necessary rapid, wide area surveys needed to find these archaeological sites is through the generation of maps of probable archaeological sites from remotely sensed data. We describe an approach for identifying probable locations of archaeological sites over a wide area based on detecting subtle anomalies in vegetative cover through a statistically based analysis of remotely sensed data from multiple sources. We further developed this approach under a recent NASA ROSES Space Archaeology Program project. Under this project we refined and elaborated this statistical analysis to compensate for potential slight miss-registrations between the remote sensing data sources and the archaeological site location data. We also explored data quantization approaches (required by the statistical analysis approach), and we identified a superior data quantization approached based on a unique image segmentation approach. In our presentation we will summarize our refined approach and demonstrate the effectiveness of the overall approach with test data from Santa Catalina Island off the southern California coast. Finally, we discuss our future plans for further improving our approach.

The high velocity symbiotic star AG Draconis after its 1980 outburst

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viotti, R.; Altamore, A.; Baratta, G. B.; Cassatella, A.; Friedjung, M.; Giangrande, A.; Ponz, D.; Ricciardi, O.

1982-01-01

High and low resolution spectra of AG Dra taken in 1981 are analyzed. The UV spectrum of AG Dra is characterized by prominent high ionization emission lines superimposed on a strong continuum. At high resolution, several intense absorption lines of interstellar origin are seen, in spite of the low interstellar extinction. A similar situation is displayed by the high galactic latitude sd0 stars. The radial velocity difference between the emission lines and the i.s. lines is about -105 Km/sec in agreement with the optical observations. The He II 1640 A line appears much stronger than in other symbiotic stars and suggests the presence of a hot source which is variable according to the activity of the star. The line also exhibits broad emission wings which could be formed in a rotating disk. The NV resonance doublet displays a P Cygni profile and is probably formed in a warm wind. Two components in the UV continuum are identified: a steep component dominating the far UV probably associated with the hot source, and a flatter continuum in the near UV which cannot be accounted for by f-f and f-b emission alone, but which is probably emitted by an optically thick region or disk.

Younger Dryas Age advance of Franz Josef Glacier in the Southern Alps of New Zealand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denton, G.H.; Hendy, C.H.

1994-06-03

A corrected radiocarbon age of 11,050 [+-] 14 years before present for an advance of the Franz Josef Glacier to the Waiho Loop terminal moraine on the western flank of New Zealand's Southern Alps shows that glacier advance on a South Pacific island was synchronous with initiation of the Younger Dryas in the North Atlantic region. Hence, cooling at the beginning of the Younger Dryas probably reflects global rather than regional forcing. The source for Younger Dryas climatic cooling may thus lie in the atmosphere rather than in a North Atlantic thermohaline switch. 36 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

Domestic wells have high probability of pumping septic tank leachate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bremer, J. E.; Harter, T.

2012-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems are common in rural and semi-rural areas around the world; in the US, about 25-30% of households are served by a septic (onsite) wastewater treatment system, and many property owners also operate their own domestic well nearby. Site-specific conditions and local groundwater flow are often ignored when installing septic systems and wells. In areas with small lots (thus high spatial septic system densities), shallow domestic wells are prone to contamination by septic system leachate. Mass balance approaches have been used to determine a maximum septic system density that would prevent contamination of groundwater resources. In this study, a source area model based on detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling is applied for a stochastic analysis of domestic well contamination by septic leachate. Specifically, we determine the probability that a source area overlaps with a septic system drainfield as a function of aquifer properties, septic system density and drainfield size. We show that high spatial septic system density poses a high probability of pumping septic system leachate. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has a strong influence on the intersection probability. We find that mass balance calculations applied on a regional scale underestimate the contamination risk of individual drinking water wells by septic systems. This is particularly relevant for contaminants released at high concentrations, for substances that experience limited attenuation, and those that are harmful even at low concentrations (e.g., pathogens).

SLD-MOSCNT: A new MOSCNT with step-linear doping profile in the source and drain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahne, Behrooz Abdi; Naderi, Ali

2017-01-01

In this paper, a new structure, step-linear doping MOSCNT (SLD-MOSCNT), is proposed to improve the performance of basic MOSCNTs. The basic structure suffers from band to band tunneling (BTBT). We show that using SLD profile for source and drain regions increases the horizontal distance between valence and conduction bands at gate to source/drain junction which reduces BTBT probability. SLD performance is compared with other similar structures which have recently been proposed to reduce BTBT such as MOSCNT with lightly-doped drain and source (LDDS), and with double-light doping in source and drain regions (DLD). The obtained results using a nonequilibrium Green’s function (NEGF) method show that the SLD-MOSCNT has the lowest leakage current, power consumption and delay time, and the highest current ratio and voltage gain. The ambipolar conduction in the proposed structure is very low and can be neglected. In addition, these structures can improve short-channel effects. Also, the investigation of cutoff frequency of the different structures shows that the SLD has the highest cutoff frequency. Device performance has been investigated for gate length from 8 to 20 nm which demonstrates all discussions regarding the superiority of the proposed structure are also valid for different channel lengths. This improvement is more significant especially for channel length less than 12 nm. Therefore, the SLD can be considered as a candidate to be used in the applications with high speed and low power consumption.

Meteorite Source Regions as Revealed by the Near-Earth Object Population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binzel, Richard P.; DeMeo, Francesca E.; Burt, Brian J.; Polishook, David; Burbine, Thomas H.; Bus, Schelte J.; Tokunaga, Alan; Birlan, Mirel

2014-11-01

Spectroscopic and taxonomic information is now available for 1000 near-Earth objects, having been obtained through both targeted surveys (e.g. [1], [2], [3]) or resulting from all-sky surveys (e.g. [4]). We determine their taxonomic types in the Bus-DeMeo system [5] [6] and subsequently examine meteorite correlations based on spectral analysis (e.g. [7],[8]). We correlate our spectral findings with the source region probabilities calculated using the methods of Bottke et al. [9]. In terms of taxonomy, very clear sources are indicated: Q-, Sq-, and S-types most strongly associated with ordinary chondrite meteorites show clear source signatures through the inner main-belt. V-types are relatively equally balanced between nu6 and 3:1 resonance sources, consistent with the orbital dispersion of the Vesta family. B- and C-types show distinct source region preferences for the outer belt and for Jupiter family comets. A Jupiter family comet source predominates for the D-type near-Earth objects, implying these "asteroidal" bodies may be extinct or dormant comets [10]. Similarly, near-Earth objects falling in the spectrally featureless "X-type" category also show a strong outer belt and Jupiter family comet source region preference. Finally the Xe-class near-Earth objects, which most closely match the spectral properties of enstatite achondrite (aubrite) meteorites seen in the Hungaria region[11], show a source region preference consistent with a Hungaria origin by entering near-Earth space through the Mars crossing and nu6 resonance pathways. This work supported by the National Science Foundation Grant 0907766 and NASA Grant NNX10AG27G.[1] Lazzarin, M. et al. (2004), Mem. S. A. It. Suppl. 5, 21. [2] Thomas, C. A. et al. (2014), Icarus 228, 217. [3] Tokunaga, A. et al. (2006) BAAS 38, 59.07. [4] Hasselmann, P. H., Carvano, J. M., Lazzaro, D. (2011) NASA PDS, EAR-A-I0035-5-SDSSTAX-V1.0. [5] Bus, S.J., Binzel, R.P. (2002). Icarus 158, 146. [6] DeMeo, F.E. et al. (2009), Icarus 202, 160. [7] Dunn et al. (2010) Icarus 208, 789. [8] Dunn et al. (2013) Icarus 222, 273. [9] Bottke, W.F. et al. (2002), Icarus 156, 399. [10] DeMeo, F., Binzel, R. P. (2007) Icarus 194, 436. [11] Gaffey, M. J. et al. (1992) Icarus 100, 95.

Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yicun; Zhuang, Jiancang; Hirata, Naoshi; Zhou, Shiyong

2017-07-01

The epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe and analyze the clustering behavior of seismicity. Instead of regarding large earthquakes as point sources, the finite-source ETAS model treats them as ruptures that extend in space. Each earthquake rupture consists of many patches, and each patch triggers its own aftershocks isotropically. We design an iterative algorithm to invert the unobserved fault geometry based on the stochastic reconstruction method. This model is applied to analyze the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalog during 1964-2014. We take six great earthquakes with magnitudes >7.5 after 1980 as finite sources and reconstruct the aftershock productivity patterns on each rupture surface. Comparing results from the point-source ETAS model, we find the following: (1) the finite-source model improves the data fitting; (2) direct aftershock productivity is heterogeneous on the rupture plane; (3) the triggering abilities of M5.4+ events are enhanced; (4) the background rate is higher in the off-fault region and lower in the on-fault region for the Tohoku earthquake, while high probabilities of direct aftershocks distribute all over the source region in the modified model; (5) the triggering abilities of five main shocks become 2-6 times higher after taking the rupture geometries into consideration; and (6) the trends of the cumulative background rate are similar in both models, indicating the same levels of detection ability for seismicity anomalies. Moreover, correlations between aftershock productivity and slip distributions imply that aftershocks within rupture faults are adjustments to coseismic stress changes due to slip heterogeneity.

Is a rheumatic fever register the best surveillance tool to evaluate rheumatic fever control in the Auckland region?

PubMed

Moxon, Te Aro; Reed, Peter; Jelleyman, Timothy; Anderson, Philippa; Leversha, Alison; Jackson, Catherine; Lennon, Diana

2017-08-11

To determine the most accurate data source for acute rheumatic fever (ARF) epidemiology in the Auckland region. To assess coverage of the Auckland Regional Rheumatic Fever Register (ARRFR), (1998-2010) for children <15 years and resident in Auckland at the time of illness, register, hospitalisation and notification data were compared. A consistent definition was applied to determine definite and probable cases of ARF using clinical records. (www.heartfoundation.org.nz) RESULTS: Of 559 confirmed (definite and probable) RF cases <15 years (median age 10 years), seven were recurrences. Of 552 first episodes, the ARRFR identified 548 (99%), hospitalisations identified 501 (91%) including four not on the register, and public health notifications identified 384 (70%). Of hospitalisation cases, 33% (245/746), and of notifications 20% (94/478) did not meet the case definition and were therefore excluded. Between 1998-2010, eight cases, initially entered as ARF on the ARRFR, were later removed once further clinical detail was available. The ARRFR produced the most accurate information surrounding new cases of ARF (for children <15 years) for the years 1998-2010 in Auckland. This was significantly more accurate than medical officer of health notification and hospitalisation data.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan-Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, M. Moklesur; Bai, Ling; Khan, Nangyal Ghani; Li, Guohui

2018-02-01

The Himalayan-Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan-Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records back to more than 1000 years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rate γ, the Gutenberg-Richter b value, and the maximum expected magnitude M max are estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50 years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan-Tibetan region.

Reservoir induced seismicity in the Koyna-Warna region, India: Overview of the recent results and hypotheses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhailov, V. O.; Arora, K.; Ponomarev, A. V.; Srinagesh, D.; Smirnov, V. B.; Chadha, R. K.

2017-07-01

The state of the art in the geological and geophysical study of the region of Koyna and Warna water reservoirs is reviewed. The probable geodynamical factors of induced seismicity are discussed. The detailed geophysical surveys, satellite geodetic data, and time history of the seismicity in the region reveal a complicated pattern of the structure and recent geodynamics of the region. The existing data suggest that the induced seismicity is here most likely to be caused by the regional (intraplate) stresses driving the displacements along the orthogonal network of the faults whose strength has dropped and continues decreasing due to the reservoir impoundment and operation processes. The evolution of the seismicity which started immediately after the rapid filling of the Koyna reservoir in the region of the dam, then rapidly expanded southwards and eventually became concentrated in the region of the subsequently constructed Warna reservoir shows that seismic events can be initiated by a number of factors whose contributions may vary with time. The key ones among them include reservoir loading and its seasonal variations; water saturation of the faults which guide the propagation of the front of fracture, increased permeability, and, probably, mineral transformations (hydrolysis) under the water level fluctuations in the reservoirs; and displacement of the front of the high pore pressure down to the main source zone of the earthquakes at a depth of 6-8 km. Based on the analysis presented in the paper, we outline the directions of the future research aimed at studying the nature and dynamics of induced seismicity in the region of large water reservoirs.

Airborne CH 2O measurements over the North Atlantic during the 1997 NARE campaign: Instrument comparisons and distributions

DOE PAGES

Fried, Alan; Lee, Yin -Nan; Frost, Greg; ...

2002-02-27

Here, formaldehyde measurements from two independent instruments are compared with photochemical box model calculations. The measurements were made on the NOAA P-3 aircraft as part of the 1997 North Atlantic Regional Experiment (NARE 1997). After examining the possible reasons for the model-measurement discrepancy, we conclude that there are probably one or more additional unknown sources of CH 2O in the North Atlantic troposphere.

Comparative study of energetic heliospheric electrons at wind and geotail

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chaizy, P. A.; Lanzerotti, L. J.; Lin, R. P.; Lepping, R. P.; Kokubun, S. K.; Bosqued, J.-M.; Sanderson, T. R.; Yamamoto, T.

1997-01-01

The current fleet of both heliospheric and magnetospheric spacecraft provides a unique opportunity of studying spatio-temporal plasma phenomena. Among the numerous topics that can be addressed by such a fleet, figures the 3D study of energetic (greater than 20 keV) solar electron) solar electron events. WIND and GEOTAIL are particulary interesting for such analysis: more than two years of data; up to 3/4 continuous days spent by GEOTAIL in the solar wind; and comparable experiments. During solar electron events, rapid electron flux changes can be associated with these structures. Sometimes they are seen at both spacecraft with a time difference corresponding to the convection time, but sometimes they are observed at one spacecraft but not at the other. Several preliminary conclusions can be drawn from such events: (1) there is direct evidence that, within distances lower than 1.5 x 10(exp 6) km at 1 A (approximately 7000 km at the sun), there are significant spatial variations of (a) the magnetic field line connections to the source region and probably of (b) the particle propagation features; (2) magnetic field lines inside and outside particle propagation structures can keep distinct access to the source region for more than one hour; (3) flux waves, of probable local origin, were observed; and (4) within one hour, spatial flux discrepancies, separated by magnetic structures, may remain or disappear.

Enceladus: An Active Cryovolcanic Satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spencer, J. R.; Barr, Amy C.; Esposito, L. W.; Helfenstein, P.; Ingersoll, A. P.; Jaumann, R.; McKay, C. P.; Nimmo, F.; Waite, J. H.

2009-01-01

Enceladus is one of the most remarkable satellites in the solar system, as revealed by Cassini's detection of active plumes erupting from warm fractures near its south pole. This discovery makes Enceladus the only icy satellite known to exhibit ongoing internally driven geological activity. The activity is presumably powered by tidal heating maintained by Enceladus 2:1 mean-motion resonance with Dione, but many questions remain. For instance, it appears difficult or impossible to maintain the currently observed radiated power (probably at least 6 GW) in steady state. It is also not clear how Enceladus first entered its current self-maintaining warm and dissipative state initial heating from non-tidal sources is probably required. There are also many unanswered questions about Enceladus interior. The silicate fraction inferred from its density of 1.68 g per cubic centimeter is probably differentiated into a core, though we have only indirect evidence for differentiation. Above the core there is probably a global or regional water layer, inferred from several models of tidal heating, and an ice shell thick enough to support the 1 kilometer amplitude topography seen on Enceladus. It is possible that dissipation is largely localized beneath the south polar region. Enceladus surface geology, ranging from moderately cratered terrain to the virtually crater-free active south polar region, is highly diverse, tectonically complex, and remarkably symmetrical about the rotation axis and the direction to Saturn. South polar activity is concentrated along the four tiger stripe fractures, which radiate heat at temperatures up to at least 167 K and are the source of multiple plumes ejecting 200 kilograms per second of H2O vapor along with significant N2 (or C2H4), CO2, CH4, NH3, and higher-mass hydrocarbons. The escaping gas maintains Saturn's neutral gas torus, and the plumes also eject a large number of micron-sized H2O ice grains that populate Saturn's E-ring. The mechanism that powers the plumes is not well understood, and whether liquid water is involved is a subject of active debate (but likely nonetheless). Enceladus provides a promising potential habitat for life in the outer solar system, and the active plumes allow the unique opportunity for direct sampling of that zone. Enceladus is thus a prime target for Cassini's continued exploration of the Saturn system, and will be a tempting target for future missions.

Stochastic Analysis of Wind Energy for Wind Pump Irrigation in Coastal Andhra Pradesh, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, M. M.; Kumar, A.; Bisht, D.; Rao, D. B.

2014-09-01

The rapid escalation in the prices of oil and gas as well as increasing demand for energy has attracted the attention of scientists and researchers to explore the possibility of generating and utilizing the alternative and renewable sources of wind energy in the long coastal belt of India with considerable wind energy resources. A detailed analysis of wind potential is a prerequisite to harvest the wind energy resources efficiently. Keeping this in view, the present study was undertaken to analyze the wind energy potential to assess feasibility of the wind-pump operated irrigation system in the coastal region of Andhra Pradesh, India, where high ground water table conditions are available. The stochastic analysis of wind speed data were tested to fit a probability distribution, which describes the wind energy potential in the region. The normal and Weibull probability distributions were tested; and on the basis of Chi square test, the Weibull distribution gave better results. Hence, it was concluded that the Weibull probability distribution may be used to stochastically describe the annual wind speed data of coastal Andhra Pradesh with better accuracy. The size as well as the complete irrigation system with mass curve analysis was determined to satisfy various daily irrigation demands at different risk levels.

Infrared studies of galactic center x-ray sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeWitt, Curtis

In this dissertation I use a variety of approaches to discover the nature of a subset of the nearly 10,000 X-ray point sources in the 2° x 0.8° region around the Galactic Center. I produced a JHK s source catalog of the 170 x170 region around Sgr A* an area containing 4339 of these X-ray sources, with the ISPI camera on the CTIO 4-m telescope. I cross-correlated the Chandra and ISPI catalogs to find potential near-infrared (NIR) counterparts to the X-ray sources. The extreme NIR source crowding in the field means that it is not possible to establish the authenticity of the matches with astrometry and photometry alone. I found 2137 IR/X-ray astrometrically matched sources; statistically I calculated that my catalog contains 289+/-13 true matches to soft X-ray sources and 154 +/- 39 matches to hard X-ray sources. However, the fraction of matches to hard sources that are spurious is 90%, compared to 40% for soft source matches, making the hard source NIR matches particularly challenging for spectroscopic follow-up. I statistically investigated the parameter space of matched sources and identified a set of 98 NIR matches to hard X-ray sources with reddenings consistent with the GC distance which have a 45% probability of being true counterparts. I created two additional photometric catalogs of the GC region to investigate the variability of X-ray counterparts over a time baseline of several years. I found 48 variable NIR sources matched to X-ray sources, with 2 spectroscopically confirmed to be true counterparts (1 in previous literature and one in this study). I took spectra of 46 of my best candidates for counterparts to X-ray sources toward the GC, and spectroscopically confirmed 4 sources as the authentic physical counterpart on the basis of emission lines in the H and K band spectra. These sources include a Be high mass X-ray binary located 16 pc in projection away from Sgr A*; a hard X-ray symbiotic binary located 22 pc in projection from Sgr A*; an O-type supergiant at an distance of 3.7 kpc; and an O star at the Galactic Center distance. I also identified 3 foreground X-ray source counterparts within a distance of 1 kpc which do not show obvious emission features in their spectra. However, on the basis of the low surface density of unreddened sources along the line-of-sight to the Galactic Center and our previous statistical analysis (DeWitt et al., 2010), these can be securely identified as the true counterparts to their coincident X-ray point sources. Lastly, I used the results of my matching simulations to infer the presence of 7+/-2 true counterparts within a set of late type giants that I observed without detectable emission features. I conclude from this work that the probable excess in red giant X-ray counterparts without emission lines needs to be confirmed both with larger samples of spectroscopically surveyed counterparts and more advanced statistical simulations of the match authenticity. Also, the nature of the compact object in two of my counterpart discoveries, the Be HMXB and the symbiotic binary, can be strongly constrained with X-ray spectral fitting. Lastly, I conclude that spectroscopic surveys for new X-ray source counterparts in the GC may be able to increase their efficiency by specifically targeting photometric variables and very close astrometric matches of IR/X-ray sources.

Probability of detecting perchlorate under natural conditions in deep groundwater in California and the Southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fram, Miranda S.; Belitz, Kenneth

2011-01-01

We use data from 1626 groundwater samples collected in California, primarily from public drinking water supply wells, to investigate the distribution of perchlorate in deep groundwater under natural conditions. The wells were sampled for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project. We develop a logistic regression model for predicting probabilities of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than multiple threshold concentrations as a function of climate (represented by an aridity index) and potential anthropogenic contributions of perchlorate (quantified as an anthropogenic score, AS). AS is a composite categorical variable including terms for nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Incorporating water-quality parameters in AS permits identification of perturbation of natural occurrence patterns by flushing of natural perchlorate salts from unsaturated zones by irrigation recharge as well as addition of perchlorate from industrial and agricultural sources. The data and model results indicate low concentrations (0.1-0.5 μg/L) of perchlorate occur under natural conditions in groundwater across a wide range of climates, beyond the arid to semiarid climates in which they mostly have been previously reported. The probability of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than 0.1 μg/L under natural conditions ranges from 50-70% in semiarid to arid regions of California and the Southwestern United States to 5-15% in the wettest regions sampled (the Northern California coast). The probability of concentrations above 1 μg/L under natural conditions is low (generally <3%).

Three year study of tropospheric ozone with back trajectories at a metropolitan and a medium scale urban area in Greece.

PubMed

Dimitriou, Konstantinos; Kassomenos, Pavlos

2015-01-01

Three years of hourly O3 concentration measurements from a metropolitan and a medium scale urban area in Greece: Athens and Ioannina respectively, were analyzed in conjunction with hourly wind speed/direction data and air mass trajectories, aiming to reveal local and regional contributions respectively. Conditional Probability Function was used to indicate associations among distinct wind directions and extreme O3 episodes. Backward trajectory clusters were elaborated by Potential Source Contribution Function on a grid of a 0.5°×0.5° resolution, in order to localize potential exogenous sources of O3 and its precursors. In Athens, an increased likelihood of extreme O3 events at the Northern suburbs was associated with the influence of SSW-SW sea breeze from Saronikos Gulf, due to O3 transportation from the city center. In Ioannina, the impacts of O3 conveyance from the city center to the suburban monitoring site were weaker. Potential O3 transboundary sources for Athens were mainly localized over Balkan Peninsula, Greece and the Aegean Sea. Potential Source Contribution Function hotspots were isolated over the industrialized area of Ptolemaida basin and above the region of Thessaloniki. Potential regional O3 sources for Ioannina were indicated across northern Greece and Balkan Peninsula, whereas peak Potential Source Contribution Function values were particularly observed over the urban area of Sofia in Bulgaria. The implemented methods, revealed local and potential transboundary source areas of O3, influencing Athens and Ioannina. Differences among the two cities were highlighted and the role of topography was emerged. These findings can be used in order to reduce the emission of O3 precursors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring the engines of molecular outflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Testi, Leonardo

1995-03-01

Water vapour masers and CO outflows are well known to be associated with the youngest phases of evolution of massive stellar objects. Nevertheless, up to now there is a lack of high resolution multiwavelength study of the regions containing these objects. Using the VLA, the CSO and the TIRGO equipped with the new Near-Infrared (NIR) camera ARNICA, we have begun a systematic study of water maser/CO outflow regions. These new high resolution and high sensitivity data have proved to be very useful in probing the star formation activity and the connection between infrared and radio sources. Here we report the results obtained in a preliminary sub- sample of objects. The NIR data showed that both the maser spots and the large- scale outflows tend to be associated to the most embedded and probably younger sources of the infrared clusters. Infrared emission lines observed with narrow band filters show the presence of jet-like structures in most of the sources observed. Water masers, jet-like and Herbig-Haro-like infrared structures, and CO outflows enable to probe ejection phenomena at all spacial scales ranging from 0.01 to 1 parsec.

Setting priorities for research on pollution reduction functions of agricultural buffers.

PubMed

Dosskey, Michael G

2002-11-01

The success of buffer installation initiatives and programs to reduce nonpoint source pollution of streams on agricultural lands will depend the ability of local planners to locate and design buffers for specific circumstances with substantial and predictable results. Current predictive capabilities are inadequate, and major sources of uncertainty remain. An assessment of these uncertainties cautions that there is greater risk of overestimating buffer impact than underestimating it. Priorities for future research are proposed that will lead more quickly to major advances in predictive capabilities. Highest priority is given for work on the surface runoff filtration function, which is almost universally important to the amount of pollution reduction expected from buffer installation and for which there remain major sources of uncertainty for predicting level of impact. Foremost uncertainties surround the extent and consequences of runoff flow concentration and pollutant accumulation. Other buffer functions, including filtration of groundwater nitrate and stabilization of channel erosion sources of sediments, may be important in some regions. However, uncertainty surrounds our ability to identify and quantify the extent of site conditions where buffer installation can substantially reduce stream pollution in these ways. Deficiencies in predictive models reflect gaps in experimental information as well as technology to account for spatial heterogeneity of pollutant sources, pathways, and buffer capabilities across watersheds. Since completion of a comprehensive watershed-scale buffer model is probably far off, immediate needs call for simpler techniques to gage the probable impacts of buffer installation at local scales.

An Ultraviolet-Excess Optical Candidate for the Luminous Globular Cluster X-Ray Source in NGC 1851

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deutsch, Eric W.; Anderson, Scott F.; Margon, Bruce; Downes, Ronald A.

1996-01-01

The intense, bursting X-ray source in the globular cluster NGC 1851 was one of the first cluster sources discovered, but has remained optically unidentified for 25 years. We report here on results from Hubble Space Telescope WFPC2 multicolor images in NGC 1851. Our high spatial resolution images resolve approximately 200 objects in the 3 minute radius Einstein X-ray error circle, 40 times as many as in previous ground-based work. A color-magnitude diagram of the cluster clearly reveals a markedly UV-excess object with B approximately 21, (U - B) approximately -0.9, only 2 minutes from the X-ray position. The UV-excess candidate is 0.12 minutes distant from a second, unremarkable star that is 0.5 mag brighter in B; thus ground-based studies of this field are probably impractical. Three other UV-excess objects are also present among the approximately 16,000 objects in the surveyed region of the cluster, leaving an approximately 5% probability that a UV-excess object has fallen in the X-ray error circle by chance. No variability of the candidate is seen in these data, although a more complete study is required. If this object is in fact the counterpart of the X-ray source, previous inferences that some globular cluster X-ray sources are optically subluminous with respect to low-mass X-ray binaries in the field are now strengthened.

The impact of Southern Atlantic moisture source in the precipitation regime of Sahel and Brazilian Nordeste using lagrangian models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drumond, A.; Nieto, R.; Gimeno, L.; Ambrizzi, T.; Trigo, R.

2009-04-01

The socio-economical problems related to the severe droughts observed over Brazilian "Nordeste" and Sahel are well known nowadays. Several studies have showed that the precipitation regimes over these regions are influenced by the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) variability, which can be related with the climatic variations observed in the South and North Tropical Atlantic basins. However, a climatological detailed assessment of the annual cycle of the oceanic moisture contribution to both these regions is still needed in order to get a better understanding of their precipitation regimes and variability. To answer this question, a climatological seasonal analysis of the moisture supply from the South Atlantic to the precipitation in the "Nordeste" and Sahel was performed using a new Lagrangian method of diagnosis which identifies the humidity contributions to the moisture budget over a region. The applied methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along forward-trajectories for the following 10 days. In order to take into account distinct regional contributions we have divided the South Atlantic basin in several latitudinal bands (with a 5° width), and all air-masses residing over each region were tracked forward using the available 5-year dataset (2000-2004). For the Sahel, the preliminary results suggest that the oceanic band northwards 10 degrees south acts as a moisture source for the precipitation along the year and its contribution reaches the maximum during the austral winter, probably related to the ITCZ annual migration over the region. On the other hand, the precipitation over "Nordeste" can be better related to air masses emanating from the oceanic bands between 10 and 20 degrees south. However the response over the region is very heterogeneous spatially and temporally probably due to the high variability of the local climate characteristics. In order to clarify dynamically the origin of the moisture that reaches the semi-arid "Nordeste", a backward-trajectories analysis is being conducted and the results will be presented elsewhere.

HONO and Inorganic Fine Particle Composition in Typical Monsoon Region with Intensive Anthropogenic Emission: In-situ Observations and Source Identification.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Y.; Nie, W.; Ding, A.; Huang, X.

2015-12-01

Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is one of the most typical monsoon area with probably the most largest population intensity in the world. With sharply economic development and the large anthropogenic emissions, fine particle pollution have been one of the major air quality problem and may further have impact on the climate system. Though a lot of control policy (sulfur emission have been decreasing from 2007) have been conducted in the region, studies showed the sulfate in fine particles still take major fraction as the nitrate from nitrogen oxides increased significantly. In this study, the role of inorganic chemical compositions in fine particles was investigated with two years in-situ observation. Sulfate and Nitrate contribute to fine particle mass equally in general, but sulfate contributes more during summer and nitrate played more important role in winter. Using lagrangian dispersion backward modeling and source contribution clustering method, the impact of airmass coming from different source region (industrial, dust, biogenic emissions, etc) on fine particle inorganic compositions were discussed. Furthermore, we found two unique cases showing in-situ implications for sulfate formation by nitrogen dioxide oxidation mechanisms. It was showed that the mixing of anthropogenic pollutants with long-range transported mineral dust and biomass burning plume would enhance the sulfate formation by different chemistry mechanisms. This study focus on the complex aspects of fine particle formation in airmasses from different source regions: . It highlights the effect of NOx in enhancing the atmospheric oxidization capacity and indicates a potentially very important impact of increasing NOx on air pollution formation and regional climate change in East Asia.

Understanding the Groundwater Hydrology of a Geographically-Isolated Prairie Fen: Implications for Conservation

PubMed Central

Sampath, Prasanna Venkatesh; Liao, Hua-Sheng; Curtis, Zachary Kristopher; Doran, Patrick J.; Herbert, Matthew E.; May, Christopher A.; Li, Shu-Guang

2015-01-01

The sources of water and corresponding delivery mechanisms to groundwater-fed fens are not well understood due to the multi-scale geo-morphologic variability of the glacial landscape in which they occur. This lack of understanding limits the ability to effectively conserve these systems and the ecosystem services they provide, including biodiversity and water provisioning. While fens tend to occur in clusters around regional groundwater mounds, Ives Road Fen in southern Michigan is an example of a geographically-isolated fen. In this paper, we apply a multi-scale groundwater modeling approach to understand the groundwater sources for Ives Road fen. We apply Transition Probability geo-statistics on more than 3000 well logs from a state-wide water well database to characterize the complex geology using conditional simulations. We subsequently implement a 3-dimensional reverse particle tracking to delineate groundwater contribution areas to the fen. The fen receives water from multiple sources: local recharge, regional recharge from an extensive till plain, a regional groundwater mound, and a nearby pond. The regional sources deliver water through a tortuous, 3-dimensional “pipeline” consisting of a confined aquifer lying beneath an extensive clay layer. Water in this pipeline reaches the fen by upwelling through openings in the clay layer. The pipeline connects the geographically-isolated fen to the same regional mound that provides water to other fen clusters in southern Michigan. The major implication of these findings is that fen conservation efforts must be expanded from focusing on individual fens and their immediate surroundings, to studying the much larger and inter-connected hydrologic network that sustains multiple fens. PMID:26452279

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: Multiple sources and global applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grezio, Anita; Babeyko, Andrey; Baptista, Maria Ana; Behrens, Jörn; Costa, Antonio; Davies, Gareth; Geist, Eric L.; Glimsdal, Sylfest; González, Frank I.; Griffin, Jonathan; Harbitz, Carl B.; LeVeque, Randall J.; Lorito, Stefano; Løvholt, Finn; Omira, Rachid; Mueller, Christof; Paris, Raphaël; Parsons, Thomas E.; Polet, Jascha; Power, William; Selva, Jacopo; Sørensen, Mathilde B.; Thio, Hong Kie

2017-01-01

Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Multiple Sources and Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grezio, Anita; Babeyko, Andrey; Baptista, Maria Ana; Behrens, Jörn; Costa, Antonio; Davies, Gareth; Geist, Eric L.; Glimsdal, Sylfest; González, Frank I.; Griffin, Jonathan; Harbitz, Carl B.; LeVeque, Randall J.; Lorito, Stefano; Løvholt, Finn; Omira, Rachid; Mueller, Christof; Paris, Raphaël.; Parsons, Tom; Polet, Jascha; Power, William; Selva, Jacopo; Sørensen, Mathilde B.; Thio, Hong Kie

2017-12-01

Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

Galactic Starburst NGC 3603 from X-Rays to Radio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moffat, A. F. J.; Corcoran, M. F.; Stevens, I. R.; Skalkowski, G.; Marchenko, S. V.; Muecke, A.; Ptak, A.; Koribalski, B. S.; Brenneman, L.; Mushotzky, R.;

A Risk-Based Multi-Objective Optimization Concept for Early-Warning Monitoring Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bode, F.; Loschko, M.; Nowak, W.

2014-12-01

Groundwater is a resource for drinking water and hence needs to be protected from contaminations. However, many well catchments include an inventory of known and unknown risk sources which cannot be eliminated, especially in urban regions. As matter of risk control, all these risk sources should be monitored. A one-to-one monitoring situation for each risk source would lead to a cost explosion and is even impossible for unknown risk sources. However, smart optimization concepts could help to find promising low-cost monitoring network designs.In this work we develop a concept to plan monitoring networks using multi-objective optimization. Our considered objectives are to maximize the probability of detecting all contaminations and the early warning time and to minimize the installation and operating costs of the monitoring network. A qualitative risk ranking is used to prioritize the known risk sources for monitoring. The unknown risk sources can neither be located nor ranked. Instead, we represent them by a virtual line of risk sources surrounding the production well.We classify risk sources into four different categories: severe, medium and tolerable for known risk sources and an extra category for the unknown ones. With that, early warning time and detection probability become individual objectives for each risk class. Thus, decision makers can identify monitoring networks which are valid for controlling the top risk sources, and evaluate the capabilities (or search for least-cost upgrade) to also cover moderate, tolerable and unknown risk sources. Monitoring networks which are valid for the remaining risk also cover all other risk sources but the early-warning time suffers.The data provided for the optimization algorithm are calculated in a preprocessing step by a flow and transport model. Uncertainties due to hydro(geo)logical phenomena are taken into account by Monte-Carlo simulations. To avoid numerical dispersion during the transport simulations we use the particle-tracking random walk method.

Possible sources of archaeological maize found in Chaco Canyon and Aztec Ruin, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, L.V.; Stein, J.R.; Taylor, Howard E.

2009-01-01

Maize played a major role in Chaco's interaction with outlying communities in the southern Colorado Plateau. This paper seeks to determine where archaeological corn cobs brought to Chaco Canyon were grown. Strontium-isotope and trace-metal ratios of 180 soil-water and 18 surface-water sites in the Southern Colorado Plateau have revealed possible source areas for some of 37 archaeological corn cobs from Chaco Canyon and 10 archaeological corn cobs from Aztec Ruin, New Mexico. The most probable source areas for cobs that predate the middle-12th-century drought include several Upper Rio Chaco sites (not including Chaco Canyon). There are many potential source areas for cobs that date to the late A.D. 1100s and early 1200s, all of which lie in the eastern part of the study area. Some Athapascan-age cobs have potential source areas in the Totah, Lobo Mesa, and Dinetah regions. One Gallo Cliff Dwelling cob has a strontium-isotope ratio that exceeds all measured soil-water values. Field sites for this cob may exist in association with Paleozoic and Precambrian rocks found 80-90 km from Chaco Canyon. Potential source areas for most Aztec Ruin cobs (many of which were found in rooms dating to the first half of the 13th-century) appear to be associated with a loess deposit that blankets the Mesa Verde and McElmo Dome regions.

La Asociación OB Bochum7 combinando datos IR y ópticos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corti, M. A.; Bosch, G. L.; Niemela, V. S.

We present the results of an analysis of IR data in the region of the galactic OB association Bo7, obtained from the archives of the IRAS satellite mission and the 2MASS survey. Bo7 is located at the end of Perseus spiral arm. Distances of possible members of the Bo7 association were determined calculating the absorption from the E(V-K) colour excess. These members had been previously selected according to their UBV colours and spectra. The distance values obtained with IR excess have a smaller error than those obtained considering the E(B-V) excess. An extended interstellar dust cloud (detected in IRAS maps) is found to be probably associated with the members of Bo7. Two IRAS point sources observed in the region have characteristics of star formation sites. One of these point sources has been observed in CS(2-1) by Bronfman et al. (1996), who determined a value of (LSR) velocity of 44 km/s, close to the velocity of stars in Bo7 (Corti et al. 2003). A group of main sequence O - B0.5 stars appear near the location of the aforementioned IRAS point source, suggesting sequential star formation in the Bo7 region.

A Fracture Decoupling Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroujkova, A. F.; Bonner, J. L.; Leidig, M.; Ferris, A. N.; Kim, W.; Carnevale, M.; Rath, T.; Lewkowicz, J.

2012-12-01

Multiple observations made at the Semipalatinsk Test Site suggest that conducting nuclear tests in the fracture zones left by previous explosions results in decreased seismic amplitudes for the second nuclear tests (or "repeat shots"). Decreased seismic amplitudes reduce both the probability of detection and the seismically estimated yield of a "repeat shot". In order to define the physical mechanism responsible for the amplitude reduction and to quantify the degree of the amplitude reduction in fractured rocks, Weston Geophysical Corp., in collaboration with Columbia University's Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, conducted a multi-phase Fracture Decoupling Experiment (FDE) in central New Hampshire. The FDE involved conducting explosions of various yields in the damage/fracture zones of previously detonated explosions. In order to quantify rock damage after the blasts we performed well logging and seismic cross-hole tomography studies of the source region. Significant seismic velocity reduction was observed around the source regions after the initial explosions. Seismic waves produced by the explosions were recorded at near-source and local seismic networks, as well as several regional stations throughout northern New England. Our analysis confirms frequency dependent seismic amplitude reduction for the repeat shots compared to the explosions in un-fractured rocks. The amplitude reduction is caused by pore closing and/or by frictional losses within the fractured media.

Peering through Jupiter’s clouds with radio spectral imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Pater, Imke; Sault, R. J.; Butler, Bryan; DeBoer, David; Wong, Michael H.

2016-06-01

Radio wavelengths can probe altitudes in Jupiter’s atmosphere below its visible cloud layers. We used the Very Large Array to map this unexplored region down to ~8 bar, ~100 kilometers below the visible clouds. Our maps reveal a dynamically active planet at pressures less than 2 to 3 bar. A radio-hot belt exists, consisting of relatively transparent regions (a low ammonia concentration, NH3 being the dominant source of opacity) probing depths to over ~8 bar; these regions probably coincide with 5-micrometer hot spots. Just to the south we distinguish an equatorial wave, bringing up ammonia gas from Jupiter’s deep atmosphere. This wave has been theorized to produce the 5-micrometer hot spots; we observed the predicted radio counterpart of such hot spots.

Genetic Structure and Inferences on Potential Source Areas for Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) Based on Mitochondrial and Microsatellite Markers

PubMed Central

Shi, Wei; Kerdelhué, Carole; Ye, Hui

2012-01-01

Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) is mainly distributed in tropical and subtropical Asia and in the Pacific region. Despite its economic importance, very few studies have addressed the question of the wide genetic structure and potential source area of this species. This pilot study attempts to infer the native region of this pest and its colonization pathways in Asia. Combining mitochondrial and microsatellite markers, we evaluated the level of genetic diversity, genetic structure, and the gene flow among fly populations collected across Southeast Asia and China. A complex and significant genetic structure corresponding to the geographic pattern was found with both types of molecular markers. However, the genetic structure found was rather weak in both cases, and no pattern of isolation by distance was identified. Multiple long-distance dispersal events and miscellaneous host selection by this species may explain the results. These complex patterns may have been influenced by human-mediated transportation of the pest from one area to another and the complex topography of the study region. For both mitochondrial and microsatellite data, no signs of bottleneck or founder events could be identified. Nonetheless, maximal genetic diversity was observed in Myanmar, Vietnam and Guangdong (China) and asymmetric migration patterns were found. These results provide indirect evidence that the tropical regions of Southeast Asia and southern coast of China may be considered as the native range of the species and the population expansion is northward. Yunnan (China) is a contact zone that has been colonized from different sources. Regions along the southern coast of Vietnam and China probably served to colonize mainly the southern region of China. Southern coastal regions of China may also have colonized central parts of China and of central Yunnan. PMID:22615898

An alternative approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the Aegean region using Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherill, Graeme; Burton, Paul W.

2010-09-01

The Aegean is the most seismically active and tectonically complex region in Europe. Damaging earthquakes have occurred here throughout recorded history, often resulting in considerable loss of life. The Monte Carlo method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is used to determine the level of ground motion likely to be exceeded in a given time period. Multiple random simulations of seismicity are generated to calculate, directly, the ground motion for a given site. Within the seismic hazard analysis we explore the impact of different seismic source models, incorporating both uniform zones and distributed seismicity. A new, simplified, seismic source model, derived from seismotectonic interpretation, is presented for the Aegean region. This is combined into the epistemic uncertainty analysis alongside existing source models for the region, and models derived by a K-means cluster analysis approach. Seismic source models derived using the K-means approach offer a degree of objectivity and reproducibility into the otherwise subjective approach of delineating seismic sources using expert judgment. Similar review and analysis is undertaken for the selection of peak ground acceleration (PGA) attenuation models, incorporating into the epistemic analysis Greek-specific models, European models and a Next Generation Attenuation model. Hazard maps for PGA on a "rock" site with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years are produced and different source and attenuation models are compared. These indicate that Greek-specific attenuation models, with their smaller aleatory variability terms, produce lower PGA hazard, whilst recent European models and Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) model produce similar results. The Monte Carlo method is extended further to assimilate epistemic uncertainty into the hazard calculation, thus integrating across several appropriate source and PGA attenuation models. Site condition and fault-type are also integrated into the hazard mapping calculations. These hazard maps are in general agreement with previous maps for the Aegean, recognising the highest hazard in the Ionian Islands, Gulf of Corinth and Hellenic Arc. Peak Ground Accelerations for some sites in these regions reach as high as 500-600 cm s -2 using European/NGA attenuation models, and 400-500 cm s -2 using Greek attenuation models.

Consideration of probability of bacterial growth for Jovian planets and their satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, D. M.; Berkman, R. M.; Divine, N.

1975-01-01

Environmental parameters affecting growth of bacteria (e.g., moisture, temperature, pH, and chemical composition) were compared with current atmospheric models for Jupiter and Saturn, and with the available physical data for their satellites. Different zones of relative probability of growth were identified for Jupiter and Saturn, with the highest in pressure regions of 1-10 million N/sq m (10 to 100 atmospheres) and 3-30 million N/sq m (30 to 300 atmospheres), respectively. Of the more than two dozen satellites, only the largest (Io, Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, and Titan) were found to be interesting biologically. Titan's atmosphere may produce a substantial greenhouse effect providing increased surface temperatures. Models predicting a dense atmosphere are compatible with microbial growth for a range of pressures at Titan's surface. For Titan's surface the probability of growth would be enhanced if (1) the surface is entirely or partially liquid (water), (2) volcanism (in an ice-water-steam system) is present, or (3) access to internal heat sources is significant.

Methods and Model Dependency of Extreme Event Attribution: The 2015 European Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Vautard, Robert; van Oldenborgh, Geert J.; Wilcox, Laura; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-10-01

Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or droughts, has evolved rapidly in the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence-probability of an event in the present, factual climate with its probability in a hypothetical, counterfactual climate without human-induced climate change. Several methods can be used for event attribution, based on climate model simulations and observations, and usually researchers only assess a subset of methods and data sources. Here, we explore the role of methodological choices for the attribution of the 2015 meteorological summer drought in Europe. We present contradicting conclusions on the relevance of human influence as a function of the chosen data source and event attribution methodology. Assessments using the maximum number of models and counterfactual climates with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations point to an enhanced drought risk in Europe. However, other evaluations show contradictory evidence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-method framework in event attribution research, especially for events with a low signal-to-noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts.

Volatile element chemistry of selected lunar, meteoritic, and terrestrial samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simoneit, B. R.; Christiansen, P. C.; Burlingame, A. L.

1973-01-01

Using vacuum pyrolysis and high resolution mass spectrometry, a study is made of the gas release patterns of representative lunar samples, meteorites, terrestrial samples, and synthetic samples doped with various sources of carbon and nitrogen. The pyrolytic gas evolution patterns were intercorrelated, allowing an assessment of the possible sources of the volatilizable material in the lunar samples to be made. Lightly surface adsorbed species and more strongly chemisorbed species are released from ambient to 300 C and from 300 to 500 C, respectively. The low-temperature volatiles (less than 500 C) derived from various chondrites correlate well with the gas evolution patterns of volatile-rich samples, as for example 74220 and 61221. Solar wind entrapped species and molecules derived from reactions probably in the grain surfaces are evolved from about 500 to 700 C, respectively. Solar wind implanted C, N, and S species are generated from 750 to 1150 C, probably by reaction with the mineral matrix during the annealing process. Possible indigenous and/or refractory carbide, nitride, and sulfide C, N, and S are released in the region from 1200 C to fusion.

A quantitative analysis of household energy consumption in rural west Java: with particular emphasis on socio-economic influences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hadi, S.S.

1982-01-01

A survey was conducted to estimate per capita, per household, and total energy consumption by region, by level of development, and by fuel source in rural West Java. Socio-economic conditions were also measured by using parameters that included income, family size, husband education, wife education, biomass fuelstock, level of village development, and land size. These data are tabulated and used to develop a model that can predict probabilities of fuel use, consumption, and variety.

Seismic Sources for the Territory of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.

2011-12-01

The southern Caucasus is an earthquake prone region where devastating earthquakes have repeatedly caused significant loss of lives, infrastructure and buildings. High geodynamic activity of the region expressed in both seismic and aseismic deformations, is conditioned by the still-ongoing convergence of lithospheric plates and northward propagation of the Afro-Arabian continental block at a rate of several cm/year. The geometry of tectonic deformations in the region is largely determined by the wedge-shaped rigid Arabian block intensively intended into the relatively mobile Middle East-Caucasian region. Georgia is partner of ongoing regional project EMME. The main objective of EMME is calculation of Earthquake hazard uniformly with heights standards. One approach used in the project is the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. In this approach the first parameter requirement is the definition of seismic source zones. Seismic sources can be either faults or area sources. Seismoactive structures of Georgia are identified mainly on the basis of the correlation between neotectonic structures of the region and earthquakes. Requirements of modern PSH software to geometry of faults is very high. As our knowledge of active faults geometry is not sufficient, area sources were used. Seismic sources are defined as zones that are characterized with more or less uniform seismicity. Poor knowledge of the processes occurring in deep of the Earth is connected with complexity of direct measurement. From this point of view the reliable data obtained from earthquake fault plane solution is unique for understanding the character of a current tectonic life of investigated area. There are two methods of identification if seismic sources. The first is the seimsotectonic approach, based on identification of extensive homogeneous seismic sources (SS) with the definition of probability of occurrence of maximum earthquake Mmax. In the second method the identification of seismic sources will be obtained on the bases of structural geology, parameters of seismicity and seismotectonics. This last approach was used by us. For achievement of this purpose it was necessary to solve following problems: to calculate the parameters of seismotectonic deformation; to reveal regularities in character of earthquake fault plane solution; use obtained regularities to develop principles of an establishment of borders between various hierarchical and scale levels of seismic deformations fields and to give their geological interpretation; Three dimensional matching of active faults with real geometrical dimension and earthquake sources have been investigated. Finally each zone have been defined with the parameters: the geometry, the magnitude-frequency parameters, maximum magnitude, and depth distribution as well as modern dynamical characteristics widely used for complex processes

Ignition probability of polymer-bonded explosives accounting for multiple sources of material stochasticity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, S.; Barua, A.; Zhou, M., E-mail: min.zhou@me.gatech.edu

2014-05-07

Accounting for the combined effect of multiple sources of stochasticity in material attributes, we develop an approach that computationally predicts the probability of ignition of polymer-bonded explosives (PBXs) under impact loading. The probabilistic nature of the specific ignition processes is assumed to arise from two sources of stochasticity. The first source involves random variations in material microstructural morphology; the second source involves random fluctuations in grain-binder interfacial bonding strength. The effect of the first source of stochasticity is analyzed with multiple sets of statistically similar microstructures and constant interfacial bonding strength. Subsequently, each of the microstructures in the multiple setsmore » is assigned multiple instantiations of randomly varying grain-binder interfacial strengths to analyze the effect of the second source of stochasticity. Critical hotspot size-temperature states reaching the threshold for ignition are calculated through finite element simulations that explicitly account for microstructure and bulk and interfacial dissipation to quantify the time to criticality (t{sub c}) of individual samples, allowing the probability distribution of the time to criticality that results from each source of stochastic variation for a material to be analyzed. Two probability superposition models are considered to combine the effects of the multiple sources of stochasticity. The first is a parallel and series combination model, and the second is a nested probability function model. Results show that the nested Weibull distribution provides an accurate description of the combined ignition probability. The approach developed here represents a general framework for analyzing the stochasticity in the material behavior that arises out of multiple types of uncertainty associated with the structure, design, synthesis and processing of materials.« less

Temporal variation and source identification of black carbon at Lin'an and Longfengshan regional background stations in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Siyang; Wang, Yaqiang; An, Xingqin

2017-12-01

Black carbon (BC) is a component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), associated with climate, weather, air quality, and people's health. However, studies on temporal variation of atmospheric BC concentration at background stations in China and its source area identification are lacking. In this paper, we use 2-yr BC observations from two background stations, Lin'an (LAN) and Longfengshan (LFS), to perform the investigation. The results show that the mean diurnal variation of BC has two significant peaks at LAN while different characteristics are found in the BC variation at LFS, which are probably caused by the difference in emission source contributions. Seasonal variation of monthly BC shows double peaks at LAN but a single peak at LFS. The annual mean concentrations of BC at LAN and LFS decrease by 1.63 and 0.26 μg m-3 from 2009 to 2010, respectively. The annual background concentration of BC at LAN is twice higher than that at LFS. The major source of the LAN BC is industrial emission while the source of the LFS BC is residential emission. Based on transport climatology on a 7-day timescale, LAN and LFS stations are sensitive to surface emissions respectively in belt or approximately circular area, which are dominated by summer monsoon or colder land air flows in Northwest China. In addition, we statistically analyze the BC source regions by using BC observation and FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPART) simulation. In summer, the source regions of BC are distributed in the northwest and south of LAN and the southwest of LFS. Low BC concentration is closely related to air mass from the sea. In winter, the source regions of BC are concentrated in the west and south of LAN and the northeast of the threshold area of s tot at LFS. The cold air mass in the northwest plays an important role in the purification of atmospheric BC. On a yearly scale, sources of BC are approximately from five provinces in the northwest/southeast of LAN and the west of LFS. These findings are helpful in reducing BC emission and controlling air pollution.

Assessment of nonpoint-source contamination of the High Plains Aquifer in south-central Kansas, 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helgesen, John O.; Stullken, Lloyd E.; Rutledge, A.T.

1994-01-01

Ground-water quality was assessed in a 5,000-square-mile area of the High Plains aquifer in south-central Kansas that is susceptible to nonpoint-source contamination from agricultural and petroleum-production activities. Of particular interest was the presence of agricultural chemicals and petroleum-derived hydrocarbons that might have been associated with brines that formerly were disposed into unlined ponds. Random sampling of ground water was done within a framework of discrete land-use areas (irrigated cropland, petroleum-production land containing former brine-disposal ponds, and undeveloped rangeland) of 3-10 square miles. Although true baseline water-quality conditions probably are rare, in this region they are represented most closely by ground water in areas of undeveloped rangeland. The sampling design enabled statistical hypothesis testing, using nonparametric procedures, of the effects of land use, unsaturated-zone lithology, and type of well sampled. Results indicate that regional ground-water quality has been affected by prevailing land-use activities, as shown by increased concentrations of several inorganic constituents. Ground water beneath irrigated cropland was characterized by significantly larger concentrations of hardness, alkalinity, calcium, magnesium, potassium, fluofide, and nitrite plus nitrate than was water beneath undeveloped rangeland. Few nondegraded pesticides were detected in the aquifer, probably because of degradation and sorption. Atrazine was the most common, but only in small concentrations. round water beneath petroleum-production land was characterized by significantly larger concentrations of hardness, alkalinity, dissolved solids, sodium, and chloride than was water beneath undeveloped rangeland. Nonpoint-source contamination by oil-derived hydrocarbons was not discernible. The occurrences of trace organic compounds were similar between petroleum-production land and undeveloped rangeland, which indicates a natural origin for these compounds. The unsaturated zone in the study area is lithologically heterogeneous and contains substantial amounts of clay that inhibit the downward movement of water and solutes. Within the aquifer, the rate of lateral regional flow and solute transport is slow enough so that the ground-water quality reflects overlying land use in discrete areas of several square miles, but it is still sufficiently rapid so that the type of well sampled is not important in regional characterizations of water quality beneath irrigated cropland; the seasonal pumping of irrigation wells does not appear to divert regional flow enough to cause substantial local anomalies of more mineralized ground water.

Real-time realizations of the Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinsky, V.; Arrowsmith, S.; Hofstetter, A.; Nippress, A.

2015-12-01

The Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization method (BISL), introduced by Mordak et al. (2010) and upgraded by Marcillo et al. (2014) is destined for the accurate estimation of the atmospheric event origin at local, regional and global scales by the seismic and infrasonic networks and arrays. The BISL is based on probabilistic models of the source-station infrasonic signal propagation time, picking time and azimuth estimate merged with a prior knowledge about celerity distribution. It requires at each hypothetical source location, integration of the product of the corresponding source-station likelihood functions multiplied by a prior probability density function of celerity over the multivariate parameter space. The present BISL realization is generally time-consuming procedure based on numerical integration. The computational scheme proposed simplifies the target function so that integrals are taken exactly and are represented via standard functions. This makes the procedure much faster and realizable in real-time without practical loss of accuracy. The procedure executed as PYTHON-FORTRAN code demonstrates high performance on a set of the model and real data.

Two protostar candidates in the bright-rimmed dark cloud LDN 1206

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ressler, Michael E.; Shure, Mark

1991-01-01

The discovery of several near IR objects associated with two IRAS point sources in the LDN 1206 region is reported. IRAS 22272 + 6358A is probably a 'protostar' which is seen only in scattered light at near-IR wavelengths because of heavy obscuration by an almost edge-on circumstellar disk. In contrast, IRAS 22272 + 6358B is directly visible at these wavelengths and is perhaps an object which lies between protostars and T-Tauri stars in its evolution. Both direct and polarimetric K-band images of the region are presented, as well as spectral energy distributions constructed from J, H, K, L, L-prime, and M data and published far-IR and mm data.

MRI Brain Tumor Segmentation and Necrosis Detection Using Adaptive Sobolev Snakes.

PubMed

Nakhmani, Arie; Kikinis, Ron; Tannenbaum, Allen

2014-03-21

Brain tumor segmentation in brain MRI volumes is used in neurosurgical planning and illness staging. It is important to explore the tumor shape and necrosis regions at different points of time to evaluate the disease progression. We propose an algorithm for semi-automatic tumor segmentation and necrosis detection. Our algorithm consists of three parts: conversion of MRI volume to a probability space based on the on-line learned model, tumor probability density estimation, and adaptive segmentation in the probability space. We use manually selected acceptance and rejection classes on a single MRI slice to learn the background and foreground statistical models. Then, we propagate this model to all MRI slices to compute the most probable regions of the tumor. Anisotropic 3D diffusion is used to estimate the probability density. Finally, the estimated density is segmented by the Sobolev active contour (snake) algorithm to select smoothed regions of the maximum tumor probability. The segmentation approach is robust to noise and not very sensitive to the manual initialization in the volumes tested. Also, it is appropriate for low contrast imagery. The irregular necrosis regions are detected by using the outliers of the probability distribution inside the segmented region. The necrosis regions of small width are removed due to a high probability of noisy measurements. The MRI volume segmentation results obtained by our algorithm are very similar to expert manual segmentation.

MRI brain tumor segmentation and necrosis detection using adaptive Sobolev snakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakhmani, Arie; Kikinis, Ron; Tannenbaum, Allen

2014-03-01

Brain tumor segmentation in brain MRI volumes is used in neurosurgical planning and illness staging. It is important to explore the tumor shape and necrosis regions at di erent points of time to evaluate the disease progression. We propose an algorithm for semi-automatic tumor segmentation and necrosis detection. Our algorithm consists of three parts: conversion of MRI volume to a probability space based on the on-line learned model, tumor probability density estimation, and adaptive segmentation in the probability space. We use manually selected acceptance and rejection classes on a single MRI slice to learn the background and foreground statistical models. Then, we propagate this model to all MRI slices to compute the most probable regions of the tumor. Anisotropic 3D di usion is used to estimate the probability density. Finally, the estimated density is segmented by the Sobolev active contour (snake) algorithm to select smoothed regions of the maximum tumor probability. The segmentation approach is robust to noise and not very sensitive to the manual initialization in the volumes tested. Also, it is appropriate for low contrast imagery. The irregular necrosis regions are detected by using the outliers of the probability distribution inside the segmented region. The necrosis regions of small width are removed due to a high probability of noisy measurements. The MRI volume segmentation results obtained by our algorithm are very similar to expert manual segmentation.

Local SPTHA through tsunami inundation simulations: a test case for two coastal critical infrastructures in the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpe, M.; Selva, J.; Tonini, R.; Romano, F.; Lorito, S.; Brizuela, B.; Argyroudis, S.; Salzano, E.; Piatanesi, A.

2016-12-01

Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) is a methodology to assess the exceedance probability for different thresholds of tsunami hazard intensity, at a specific site or region in a given time period, due to a seismic source. A large amount of high-resolution inundation simulations is typically required for taking into account the full variability of potential seismic sources and their slip distributions. Starting from regional SPTHA offshore results, the computational cost can be reduced by considering for inundation calculations only a subset of `important' scenarios. We here use a method based on an event tree for the treatment of the seismic source aleatory variability; a cluster analysis on the offshore results to define the important sources; epistemic uncertainty treatment through an ensemble modeling approach. We consider two target sites in the Mediterranean (Milazzo, Italy, and Thessaloniki, Greece) where coastal (non nuclear) critical infrastructures (CIs) are located. After performing a regional SPTHA covering the whole Mediterranean, for each target site, few hundreds of representative scenarios are filtered out of all the potential seismic sources and the tsunami inundation is explicitly modeled, obtaining a site-specific SPTHA, with a complete characterization of the tsunami hazard in terms of flow depth and velocity time histories. Moreover, we also explore the variability of SPTHA at the target site accounting for coseismic deformation (i.e. uplift or subsidence) due to near field sources located in very shallow water. The results are suitable and will be applied for subsequent multi-hazard risk analysis for the CIs. These applications have been developed in the framework of the Italian Flagship Project RITMARE, EC FP7 ASTARTE (Grant agreement 603839) and STREST (Grant agreement 603389) projects, and of the INGV-DPC Agreement.

Global Particulate Matter Source Apportionment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamancusa, C.; Wagstrom, K.

2017-12-01

As our global society develops and grows it is necessary to better understand the impacts and nuances of atmospheric chemistry, in particular those associated with atmospheric particulate matter. We have developed a source apportionment scheme for the GEOS-Chem global atmospheric chemical transport model. While these approaches have existed for several years in regional chemical transport models, the Global Particulate Matter Source Apportionment Technology (GPSAT) represents the first incorporation into a global chemical transport model. GPSAT runs in parallel to a standard GEOS-Chem run. GPSAT uses the fact that all molecules of a given species have the same probability of undergoing any given process as a core principle. This allows GPSAT to track many different species using only the flux information provided by GEOS-Chem's many processes. GPSAT accounts for the change in source specific concentrations as a result of aqueous and gas-phase chemistry, horizontal and vertical transport, condensation and evaporation on particulate matter, emissions, and wet and dry deposition. By using fluxes, GPSAT minimizes computational cost by circumventing the computationally costly chemistry and transport solvers. GPSAT will allow researchers to address many pertinent research questions about global particulate matter including the global impact of emissions from different source regions and the climate impacts from different source types and regions. For this first application of GPSAT, we investigate the contribution of the twenty largest urban areas worldwide to global particulate matter concentrations. The species investigated include: ammonium, nitrates, sulfates, and the secondary organic aerosols formed by the oxidation of benzene, isoprene, and terpenes. While GPSAT is not yet publically available, we will incorporate it into a future standard release of GEOS-Chem so that all GEOS-Chem users will have access to this new tool.

Skill of Ensemble Seasonal Probability Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Leonard A.; Binter, Roman; Du, Hailiang; Niehoerster, Falk

2010-05-01

In operational forecasting, the computational complexity of large simulation models is, ideally, justified by enhanced performance over simpler models. We will consider probability forecasts and contrast the skill of ENSEMBLES-based seasonal probability forecasts of interest to the finance sector (specifically temperature forecasts for Nino 3.4 and the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR)). The ENSEMBLES model simulations will be contrasted against forecasts from statistical models based on the observations (climatological distributions) and empirical dynamics based on the observations but conditioned on the current state (dynamical climatology). For some start dates, individual ENSEMBLES models yield significant skill even at a lead-time of 14 months. The nature of this skill is discussed, and chances of application are noted. Questions surrounding the interpretation of probability forecasts based on these multi-model ensemble simulations are then considered; the distributions considered are formed by kernel dressing the ensemble and blending with the climatology. The sources of apparent (RMS) skill in distributions based on multi-model simulations is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of "zero-skill" models in the long range can improve Root-Mean-Square-Error scores, casting some doubt on the common justification for the claim that all models should be included in forming an operational probability forecast. It is argued that the rational response varies with lead time.

Possible consequences of absence of "Jupiters" in planetary systems.

PubMed

Wetherill, G W

1994-01-01

The formation of the gas giant planets Jupiter and Saturn probably required the growth of massive approximately 15 Earth-mass cores on a time scale shorter than the approximately 10(7) time scale for removal of nebular gas. Relatively minor variations in nebular parameters could preclude the growth of full-size gas giants even in systems in which the terrestrial planet region is similar to our own. Systems containing "failed Jupiters," resembling Uranus and Neptune in their failure to capture much nebular gas, would be expected to contain more densely populated cometary source regions. They will also eject a smaller number of comets into interstellar space. If systems of this kind were the norm, observation of hyperbolic comets would be unexpected. Monte Carlo calculations of the orbital evolution of region of such systems (the Kuiper belt) indicate that throughout Earth history the cometary impact flux in their terrestrial planet regions would be approximately 1000 times greater than in our Solar System. It may be speculated that this could frustrate the evolution of organisms that observe and seek to understand their planetary system. For this reason our observation of these planets in our Solar System may tell us nothing about the probability of similar gas giants occurring in other planetary systems. This situation can be corrected by observation of an unbiased sample of planetary systems.

Sources and trends of environmental mercury emissions in Asia.

PubMed

Wong, Coby S C; Duzgoren-Aydin, Nurdan S; Aydin, Adnan; Wong, Ming H

2006-09-15

This paper focuses on environmental mercury emissions in Asia and elaborates its probable trend in the future and associated implications given the anticipated socioeconomic outlook and other macro-environmental factors. Among the various regions, Asia has become the largest contributor of anthropogenic atmospheric Hg, responsible for over half of the global emission. In the next few decades, a significant increase in anthropogenic Hg emissions in Asia is likely owing to rapid economic and industrial development, unless drastic measures are taken. In particular, the dominance of Asia in some Hg-emitting industries, such as coal combustion, steel production and gold mining, provokes a serious environmental concern over their potential contributions of incidental Hg in the region. Moreover, the increasing prevalence of electrical and electronic manufacturing industry as a user and a contributor of Hg in Asia is also worrying. Specifically, disposal of obsolete electrical and electronic wastes represents a phenomenon increasingly encountered in Asia. In addition to escalating anthropogenic Hg emissions in Asia, associated environmental and health implications may also exacerbate in the region for the probable effects of a unique combination of climatic (e.g. subtropical climate), environmental (e.g. acid rain) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. high population density). Hence, much effort is still needed to understand the role of Asia in global Hg cycle and associated environmental and health effects in the region.

Study on conditional probability of surface rupture: effect of fault dip and width of seismogenic layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.

2017-12-01

The conditional probability of surface ruptures is affected by various factors, such as shallow material properties, process of earthquakes, ground motions and so on. Toda (2013) pointed out difference of the conditional probability of strike and reverse fault by considering the fault dip and width of seismogenic layer. This study evaluated conditional probability of surface rupture based on following procedures. Fault geometry was determined from the randomly generated magnitude based on The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2017) method. If the defined fault plane was not saturated in the assumed width of the seismogenic layer, the fault plane depth was randomly provided within the seismogenic layer. The logistic analysis was performed to two data sets: surface displacement calculated by dislocation methods (Wang et al., 2003) from the defined source fault, the depth of top of the defined source fault. The estimated conditional probability from surface displacement indicated higher probability of reverse faults than that of strike faults, and this result coincides to previous similar studies (i.e. Kagawa et al., 2004; Kataoka and Kusakabe, 2005). On the contrary, the probability estimated from the depth of the source fault indicated higher probability of thrust faults than that of strike and reverse faults, and this trend is similar to the conditional probability of PFDHA results (Youngs et al., 2003; Moss and Ross, 2011). The probability of combined simulated results of thrust and reverse also shows low probability. The worldwide compiled reverse fault data include low fault dip angle earthquake. On the other hand, in the case of Japanese reverse fault, there is possibility that the conditional probability of reverse faults with less low dip angle earthquake shows low probability and indicates similar probability of strike fault (i.e. Takao et al., 2013). In the future, numerical simulation by considering failure condition of surface by the source fault would be performed in order to examine the amount of the displacement and conditional probability quantitatively.

Reversing a tree regeneration crisis in an endangered ecoregion.

PubMed

Fischer, Joern; Stott, Jenny; Zerger, Andre; Warren, Garth; Sherren, Kate; Forrester, Robert I

2009-06-23

Global food demand is growing rapidly. Livestock grazing can provide a valuable source of protein, but conventional grazing is often unsustainable. We studied an 800,000-ha section of a threatened ecoregion in southeastern Australia. Conventional management in the region involves continuous livestock grazing with few rest periods and regular fertilizer application. By using remotely sensed data on tree cover and extensive field data on livestock grazing regimes, soil chemistry, tree diameters, and tree regeneration, we show that the region is facing a tree regeneration crisis. Under conventional management, across the region, millions of hectares of land currently supporting tens of millions of trees will be treeless within decades from now. This would have severe negative ramifications for biodiversity and key ecosystem services, including water infiltration and shade provision for livestock. However, we identified an unexpected win-win solution for tree regeneration and commercial grazing. A relatively new practice in the region is fast-rotational grazing, characterized by prolonged rest periods in between short, intensive grazing events. The probability of regeneration under fast-rotational grazing was up to 4-fold higher than under conventional grazing, and it did not differ significantly from the probability of regeneration in ungrazed areas. In addition, trees were more likely to regenerate where soil nutrient levels were low. These findings suggest that the tree regeneration crisis can be reversed by applying low-input, fast-rotational grazing. New policy settings supporting these practices could signal a turning point for the region, from ecological decline to ecological recovery.

Reversing a tree regeneration crisis in an endangered ecoregion

PubMed Central

Fischer, Joern; Stott, Jenny; Zerger, Andre; Warren, Garth; Sherren, Kate; Forrester, Robert I.

2009-01-01

Global food demand is growing rapidly. Livestock grazing can provide a valuable source of protein, but conventional grazing is often unsustainable. We studied an 800,000-ha section of a threatened ecoregion in southeastern Australia. Conventional management in the region involves continuous livestock grazing with few rest periods and regular fertilizer application. By using remotely sensed data on tree cover and extensive field data on livestock grazing regimes, soil chemistry, tree diameters, and tree regeneration, we show that the region is facing a tree regeneration crisis. Under conventional management, across the region, millions of hectares of land currently supporting tens of millions of trees will be treeless within decades from now. This would have severe negative ramifications for biodiversity and key ecosystem services, including water infiltration and shade provision for livestock. However, we identified an unexpected win–win solution for tree regeneration and commercial grazing. A relatively new practice in the region is fast-rotational grazing, characterized by prolonged rest periods in between short, intensive grazing events. The probability of regeneration under fast-rotational grazing was up to 4-fold higher than under conventional grazing, and it did not differ significantly from the probability of regeneration in ungrazed areas. In addition, trees were more likely to regenerate where soil nutrient levels were low. These findings suggest that the tree regeneration crisis can be reversed by applying low-input, fast-rotational grazing. New policy settings supporting these practices could signal a turning point for the region, from ecological decline to ecological recovery. PMID:19497886

Tsunamis of the northeast Indian Ocean with a particular focus on the Bay of Bengal region—A synthesis and review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, Edris; Dominey-Howes, Dale; Chagué-Goff, Catherine; Goff, James

2012-08-01

The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (2004 IOT) challenged assumptions about the level of regional hazard. Significantly, there has been some debate about the hypothesis that the northern Bay of Bengal may be capable of generating large tsunamis similar to the 2004 IOT. To test this hypothesis, we documented historical and palaeotsunamis in the northeast Indian Ocean. Using multiple sources, we identified 135 purported tsunamis. After completing a process of validity assessment, we categorised 31 definite tsunamis, 27 probable tsunamis, 51 doubtful tsunamis and 20 events that only caused a seiche or disturbance in an inland river. Six of the purported events were identified as either cyclones or earthquakes without any associated tsunamis. Using the reported list of 135 events, we identified different tsunamigenic regions and explored the temporal distribution of past events, with the oldest event dated to around 38,000BC (although the dated material is most likely reworked and this was probably a Holocene event). The second oldest event dated to 3000-2000BC. Historical records indicate that only one definite tsunami, occurring in AD1762, was generated in the northern Bay of Bengal. We encountered a number of significant challenges in reviewing and analysing data contained within the documents and sources we consulted. Statistical analysis of tsunami data from AD1710 to AD2010 suggests that the occurrence of a tsunami affecting the coasts of Bangladesh and Myanmar is 0.99% in any given year, and 63% in a century. We recognise that this incomplete tsunami dataset limits the capacity to fully quantify the hazard. As such, we recommend further 'deep' archival research coupled with regional palaeotsunami studies to gain a more sophisticated understanding of the hazard.

Assessing the infection risk of Giardia and Cryptosporidium in public drinking water delivered by surface water systems in Sao Paulo State, Brazil.

PubMed

Sato, Maria Ines Z; Galvani, Ana Tereza; Padula, Jose Antonio; Nardocci, Adelaide Cassia; Lauretto, Marcelo de Souza; Razzolini, Maria Tereza Pepe; Hachich, Elayse Maria

2013-01-01

A survey of Giardia and Cryptosporidium was conducted in surface water used as drinking water sources by public water systems in four densely urbanized regions of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, based on protozoa concentrations, was performed to estimate the probability of protozoa infection associated with drinking water ingestion. A total of 206 source water samples were analyzed over a 24 month period using the USEPA Method 1623. The risk of infection was estimated using an exponential dose response model, children and adults exposure and a gamma distribution for (oo)cyst concentrations with three scenarios for treating censored data. Giardia was detected in 102 of the samples, and 19 of them were also positive for Cryptosporidium, with maximum concentrations of 97.0 cysts/L and 6.0 oocysts/L, respectively. Risk distributions were similar for the three scenarios. In the four regions, the estimated risk of Giardia infection per year, for adults and children, ranged from 0.29% to 2.47% and from 0.08% to 0.70%, respectively. Cryptosporidium risk infection varied from 0.15% to 0.29% for adults and from 0.04% to 0.08% for children. In both cases, the calculated risk surpassed the risk of infection of 10(-4) (1:10,000) defined as tolerable by USEPA for a yearly exposure. The probability of Giardia infection was very close to the rates of acute diarrheic disease for adults (1% to 3%) but lower for children (2% to 7%). The daily consumption of drinking water was an important contributing factor for these differences. The Microbiological Risk Assessment carried out in this study provides an indication of infection risks by Giardia and Cryptosporidium in the population served by these source waters. Strategies for source water protection and performance targets for the water treatment should be established to achieve the required level of public health risk. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time dependent data, time independent models: challenges of updating Australia's National Seismic Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffin, J.; Clark, D.; Allen, T.; Ghasemi, H.; Leonard, M.

2017-12-01

Standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) simulates earthquake occurrence as a time-independent process. However paleoseismic studies in slowly deforming regions such as Australia show compelling evidence that large earthquakes on individual faults cluster within active periods, followed by long periods of quiescence. Therefore the instrumental earthquake catalog, which forms the basis of PSHA earthquake recurrence calculations, may only capture the state of the system over the period of the catalog. Together this means that data informing our PSHA may not be truly time-independent. This poses challenges in developing PSHAs for typical design probabilities (such as 10% in 50 years probability of exceedance): Is the present state observed through the instrumental catalog useful for estimating the next 50 years of earthquake hazard? Can paleo-earthquake data, that shows variations in earthquake frequency over time-scales of 10,000s of years or more, be robustly included in such PSHA models? Can a single PSHA logic tree be useful over a range of different probabilities of exceedance? In developing an updated PSHA for Australia, decadal-scale data based on instrumental earthquake catalogs (i.e. alternative area based source models and smoothed seismicity models) is integrated with paleo-earthquake data through inclusion of a fault source model. Use of time-dependent non-homogeneous Poisson models allows earthquake clustering to be modeled on fault sources with sufficient paleo-earthquake data. This study assesses the performance of alternative models by extracting decade-long segments of the instrumental catalog, developing earthquake probability models based on the remaining catalog, and testing performance against the extracted component of the catalog. Although this provides insights into model performance over the short-term, for longer timescales it is recognised that model choice is subject to considerable epistemic uncertainty. Therefore a formal expert elicitation process has been used to assign weights to alternative models for the 2018 update to Australia's national PSHA.

Influences of Source - Item Contingency and Schematic Knowledge on Source Monitoring: Tests of the Probability-Matching Account

PubMed Central

Bayen, Ute J.; Kuhlmann, Beatrice G.

2010-01-01

The authors investigated conditions under which judgments in source-monitoring tasks are influenced by prior schematic knowledge. According to a probability-matching account of source guessing (Spaniol & Bayen, 2002), when people do not remember the source of information, they match source guessing probabilities to the perceived contingency between sources and item types. When they do not have a representation of a contingency, they base their guesses on prior schematic knowledge. The authors provide support for this account in two experiments with sources presenting information that was expected for one source and somewhat unexpected for another. Schema-relevant information about the sources was provided at the time of encoding. When contingency perception was impeded by dividing attention, participants showed schema-based guessing (Experiment 1). Manipulating source - item contingency also affected guessing (Experiment 2). When this contingency was schema-inconsistent, it superseded schema-based expectations and led to schema-inconsistent guessing. PMID:21603251

Use of uninformative priors to initialize state estimation for dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worthy, Johnny L.; Holzinger, Marcus J.

2017-10-01

The admissible region must be expressed probabilistically in order to be used in Bayesian estimation schemes. When treated as a probability density function (PDF), a uniform admissible region can be shown to have non-uniform probability density after a transformation. An alternative approach can be used to express the admissible region probabilistically according to the Principle of Transformation Groups. This paper uses a fundamental multivariate probability transformation theorem to show that regardless of which state space an admissible region is expressed in, the probability density must remain the same under the Principle of Transformation Groups. The admissible region can be shown to be analogous to an uninformative prior with a probability density that remains constant under reparameterization. This paper introduces requirements on how these uninformative priors may be transformed and used for state estimation and the difference in results when initializing an estimation scheme via a traditional transformation versus the alternative approach.

Eruption probabilities for the Lassen Volcanic Center and regional volcanism, northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel; Clynne, Michael A.; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

2012-01-01

Chronologies for eruptive activity of the Lassen Volcanic Center and for eruptions from the regional mafic vents in the surrounding area of the Lassen segment of the Cascade Range are here used to estimate probabilities of future eruptions. For the regional mafic volcanism, the ages of many vents are known only within broad ranges, and two models are developed that should bracket the actual eruptive ages. These chronologies are used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to match the data for time intervals between eruptions. For the Lassen Volcanic Center, the probability of an eruption in the next year is 1.4x10-4 for the exponential distribution and 2.3x10-4 for the mixed exponential distribution. For the regional mafic vents, the exponential distribution gives a probability of an eruption in the next year of 6.5x10-4, but the mixed exponential distribution indicates that the current probability, 12,000 years after the last event, could be significantly lower. For the exponential distribution, the highest probability is for an eruption from a regional mafic vent. Data on areas and volumes of lava flows and domes of the Lassen Volcanic Center and of eruptions from the regional mafic vents provide constraints on the probable sizes of future eruptions. Probabilities of lava-flow coverage are similar for the Lassen Volcanic Center and for regional mafic vents, whereas the probable eruptive volumes for the mafic vents are generally smaller. Data have been compiled for large explosive eruptions (>≈ 5 km3 in deposit volume) in the Cascade Range during the past 1.2 m.y. in order to estimate probabilities of eruption. For erupted volumes >≈5 km3, the rate of occurrence since 13.6 ka is much higher than for the entire period, and we use these data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption at 4.6x10-4. For erupted volumes ≥10 km3, the rate of occurrence has been reasonably constant from 630 ka to the present, giving more confidence in the estimate, and we use those data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption in the next year at 1.4x10-5.

Airborne black carbon concentrations over an urban region in western India-temporal variability, effects of meteorology, and source regions.

PubMed

Bapna, Mukund; Sunder Raman, Ramya; Ramachandran, S; Rajesh, T A

2013-03-01

This study characterizes over 5 years of high time resolution (5 min), airborne black carbon (BC) concentrations (July 2003 to December 2008) measured over Ahmedabad, an urban region in western India. The data were used to obtain different time averages of BC concentrations, and these averages were then used to assess the diurnal, seasonal, and annual variability of BC over the study region. Assessment of diurnal variations revealed a strong association between BC concentrations and vehicular traffic. Peaks in BC concentration were co-incident with the morning (0730 to 0830, LST) and late evening (1930 to 2030, LST) rush hour traffic. Additionally, diurnal variability in BC concentrations during major festivals (Diwali and Dushera during the months of October/November) revealed an increase in BC concentrations due to fireworks displays. Maximum half hourly BC concentrations during the festival days were as high as 79.8 μg m(-3). However, the high concentrations rapidly decayed suggesting that local meteorology during the festive season was favorable for aerosol dispersion. A multiple linear regression (MLR) model with BC as the dependent variable and meteorological parameters as independent variables was fitted. The variability in temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction accounted for about 49% of the variability in measured BC concentrations. Conditional probability function (CPF) analysis was used to identify the geographical location of local source regions contributing to the effective BC measured (at 880 nm) at the receptor site. The east north-east (ENE) direction to the receptor was identified as a major source region. National highway (NH8) and two coal-fired thermal power stations (at Gandhinagar and Sabarmati) were located in the identified direction, suggesting that local traffic and power plant emissions were likely contributors to the measured BC.

Spatial distribution and occurrence probability of regional new particle formation events in eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Xiaojing; Sun, Junying; Kivekäs, Niku; Kristensson, Adam; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Yangmei; Zhang, Lu; Fan, Ruxia; Qi, Xuefei; Ma, Qianli; Zhou, Huaigang

2018-01-01

In this work, the spatial extent of new particle formation (NPF) events and the relative probability of observing particles originating from different spatial origins around three rural sites in eastern China were investigated using the NanoMap method, using particle number size distribution (PNSD) data and air mass back trajectories. The length of the datasets used were 7, 1.5, and 3 years at rural sites Shangdianzi (SDZ) in the North China Plain (NCP), Mt. Tai (TS) in central eastern China, and Lin'an (LAN) in the Yangtze River Delta region in eastern China, respectively. Regional NPF events were observed to occur with the horizontal extent larger than 500 km at SDZ and TS, favoured by the fast transport of northwesterly air masses. At LAN, however, the spatial footprint of NPF events was mostly observed around the site within 100-200 km. Difference in the horizontal spatial distribution of new particle source areas at different sites was connected to typical meteorological conditions at the sites. Consecutive large-scale regional NPF events were observed at SDZ and TS simultaneously and were associated with a high surface pressure system dominating over this area. Simultaneous NPF events at SDZ and LAN were seldom observed. At SDZ the polluted air masses arriving over the NCP were associated with higher particle growth rate (GR) and new particle formation rate (J) than air masses from Inner Mongolia (IM). At TS the same phenomenon was observed for J, but GR was somewhat lower in air masses arriving over the NCP compared to those arriving from IM. The capability of NanoMap to capture the NPF occurrence probability depends on the length of the dataset of PNSD measurement but also on topography around the measurement site and typical air mass advection speed during NPF events. Thus the long-term measurements of PNSD in the planetary boundary layer are necessary in the further study of spatial extent and the probability of NPF events. The spatial extent, relative probability of occurrence, and typical evolution of PNSD during NPF events presented in this study provide valuable information to further understand the climate and air quality effects of new particle formation.

Can the source–sink hypothesis explain macrofaunal abundance patterns in the abyss? A modelling test

PubMed Central

Hardy, Sarah M.; Smith, Craig R.; Thurnherr, Andreas M.

2015-01-01

Low food availability is a major structuring force in deep-sea benthic communities, sustaining only very low densities of organisms in parts of the abyss. These low population densities may result in an Allee effect, whereby local reproductive success is inhibited, and populations are maintained by larval dispersal from bathyal slopes. This slope–abyss source–sink (SASS) hypothesis suggests that the abyssal seafloor constitutes a vast sink habitat with macrofaunal populations sustained only by an influx of larval ‘refugees' from source areas on continental slopes, where higher productivity sustains greater population densities. Abyssal macrofaunal population densities would thus be directly related to larval inputs from bathyal source populations. We evaluate three predictions derived from the SASS hypothesis: (i) slope-derived larvae can be passively transported to central abyssal regions within a single larval period, (ii) projected larval export from slopes to the abyss reproduces global patterns of macrofaunal abundance and (iii) macrofaunal abundance decreases with distance from the continental slope. We find that abyssal macrofaunal populations are unlikely to be sustained solely through influx of larvae from slope sources. Rather, local reproduction probably sustains macrofaunal populations in relatively high-productivity abyssal areas, which must also be considered as potential larval source areas for more food-poor abyssal regions. PMID:25948686

The ROSAT Field Sources --- What are they?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caillault, J.-P.; Briceno, C.; Martin, E. L.; Palla, F.; Wichmann, R.

Recent studies using the ROSAT All-Sky Survey towards nearby star-forming regions have identified a widely dispersed population of X-ray active stars and have suggested that these objects are older PMS stars located far from molecular clouds. Another group, however, has presented a simple model assuming continuing star formation over the past 10^8 yrs that quantitatively reproduces the number, surface density, X-ray emission, and optical properties of the RASS sources, leading to the argument that these stars are not PMS stars, but young MS stars of ages up to approximately 10^8 yrs. A third party notes that the similarity between molecular cloud lifetimes and the ambipolar diffusion timescale implies that star formation does not take place instantaneously, nor at a constant rate. They thus argue that the probability of finding a large population of old stars in a star-forming region is intrinsically very small and that the post-T Tauri problem is by and large nonexistent.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Getman, Konstantin V.; Broos, Patrick S.; Feigelson, Eric D.

The Star Formation in Nearby Clouds (SFiNCs) project is aimed at providing a detailed study of the young stellar populations and of star cluster formation in the nearby 22 star-forming regions (SFRs) for comparison with our earlier MYStIX survey of richer, more distant clusters. As a foundation for the SFiNCs science studies, here, homogeneous data analyses of the Chandra X-ray and Spitzer mid-infrared archival SFiNCs data are described, and the resulting catalogs of over 15,300 X-ray and over 1,630,000 mid-infrared point sources are presented. On the basis of their X-ray/infrared properties and spatial distributions, nearly 8500 point sources have been identifiedmore » as probable young stellar members of the SFiNCs regions. Compared to the existing X-ray/mid-infrared publications, the SFiNCs member list increases the census of YSO members by 6%–200% for individual SFRs and by 40% for the merged sample of all 22 SFiNCs SFRs.« less

Tracing the origin of pollution in French Alpine snow and aerosols using lead isotopic ratios.

PubMed

Veysseyre, A M; Bollhöfer, A F; Rosman, K J; Ferrari, C P; Boutron, C F

2001-11-15

Fresh snow samples collected at 15 remote locations and aerosols collected at one location in the French Alps between November 1998 and April 1999 have been analyzed for Pb concentration and isotopic composition by thermal ionization mass spectrometry. The snow samples contained 19-1300 pg/g of Pb with isotopic ratios 206Pb/207Pb (208Pb/207Pb) of 1.1279-1.1607 (2.3983-2.4302). Airborne Pb concentrations at one sampling site ranged from 0.42 to 6.0 ng/m3 with isotopic ratios of 1.1321-1.1427 (2.4029-2.4160). Air mass trajectory analysis combined with isotopic compositions of potential source regions did not show discernible evidence of the long-range atmospheric transport of pollutants. Isotopic ratios in the Alpine snow samples and thus the free troposphere were generally higher than airborne Pb isotopic ratios in urban France, which coupled with the relatively high Pb concentrations suggested a regional anthropogenic Pb source, probably Italy but possibly Eastern Europe.

OPTICAL PHOTOMETRIC AND POLARIMETRIC INVESTIGATION OF NGC 1931

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pandey, A. K.; Eswaraiah, C.; Sharma, Saurabh

We present optical photometric and polarimetric observations of stars toward NGC 1931 with the aim of deriving cluster parameters such as distance, reddening, age, and luminosity/mass function as well as understanding dust properties and star formation in the region. The distance to the cluster is found to be 2.3 {+-} 0.3 kpc and the reddening E(B - V) in the region is found to be variable. The stellar density contours reveal two clusters in the region. The observations suggest a differing reddening law within the cluster region. Polarization efficiency of the dust grains toward the direction of the cluster ismore » found to be less than that for the general diffuse interstellar medium (ISM). The slope of the mass function (-0.98 {+-} 0.22) in the southern region in the mass range of 0.8 < M/M {sub Sun} < 9.8 is found to be shallower in comparison to that in the northern region (-1.26 {+-} 0.23), which is comparable to the Salpeter value (-1.35). The K-band luminosity function (KLF) of the region is found to be comparable to the average value of the slope ({approx}0.4) for young clusters obtained by Lada and Lada; however, the slope of the KLF is steeper in the northern region as compared to the southern region. The region is probably ionized by two B2 main-sequence-type stars. The mean age of the young stellar objects (YSOs) is found to be 2 {+-} 1 Myr, which suggests that the identified YSOs could be younger than the ionizing sources of the region. The morphology of the region, the distribution and ages of the YSOs, and ionizing sources indicate a triggered star formation in the region.« less

Tamil Chola Bronzes and Swamimalai Legacy: Metal Sources and Archaeotechnology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, Sharada

2016-08-01

This review explores the great copper alloy image casting traditions of southern India from archaeometallurgical and ethnometallurgical perspectives. The usefulness of lead isotope ratio and compositional analysis in the finger-printing and art historical study of more than 130 early historic, Pallava, Chola, later Chola, and Vijayanagara sculptures (fifth-eighteenth centuries) is highlighted, including Nataraja, Buddha, Parvati, and Rama images made of copper, leaded bronze, brass, and gilt copper. Image casting traditions at Swamimalai in Tamil Nadu are compared with artistic treatises and with the technical examination of medieval bronzes, throwing light on continuities and changes in foundry practices. Western Indian sources could be pinpointed for a couple of medieval images from lead isotope analysis. Slag and archaeometallurgical investigations suggest the exploitation of some copper and lead-silver sources in the Andhra and Karnataka regions in the early historic Satavahana period and point to probable copper sources for the medieval images in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh. The general lower iron content in southern Indian bronzes perhaps renders the proximal copper-magnetite reserves of Seruvila in Sri Lanka as a less likely source. Given the lack of lead deposits in Sri Lanka, however, the match of the lead isotope signatures of a well-known Ceylonese Buddhist Tara in British Museum with a Buddha image from Nagapattinam in Tamil Nadu may underscore ties between the island nation and the southern Indian Tamil regions.

Prediction of Low Community Sanitation Coverage Using Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Oswald, William E.; Stewart, Aisha E. P.; Flanders, W. Dana; Kramer, Michael R.; Endeshaw, Tekola; Zerihun, Mulat; Melaku, Birhanu; Sata, Eshetu; Gessesse, Demelash; Teferi, Tesfaye; Tadesse, Zerihun; Guadie, Birhan; King, Jonathan D.; Emerson, Paul M.; Callahan, Elizabeth K.; Moe, Christine L.; Clasen, Thomas F.

2016-01-01

This study developed and validated a model for predicting the probability that communities in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, have low sanitation coverage, based on environmental and sociodemographic conditions. Community sanitation coverage was measured between 2011 and 2014 through trachoma control program evaluation surveys. Information on environmental and sociodemographic conditions was obtained from available data sources and linked with community data using a geographic information system. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of low community sanitation coverage (< 20% versus ≥ 20%). The selected model was geographically and temporally validated. Model-predicted probabilities of low community sanitation coverage were mapped. Among 1,502 communities, 344 (22.90%) had coverage below 20%. The selected model included measures for high topsoil gravel content, an indicator for low-lying land, population density, altitude, and rainfall and had reasonable predictive discrimination (area under the curve = 0.75, 95% confidence interval = 0.72, 0.78). Measures of soil stability were strongly associated with low community sanitation coverage, controlling for community wealth, and other factors. A model using available environmental and sociodemographic data predicted low community sanitation coverage for areas across Amhara Region with fair discrimination. This approach could assist sanitation programs and trachoma control programs, scaling up or in hyperendemic areas, to target vulnerable areas with additional activities or alternate technologies. PMID:27430547

A Dark Energy Camera Search for an Optical Counterpart to the First Advanced LIGO Gravitational Wave Event GW150914

DOE PAGES

Soares-Santos, M.; Kessler, R.; Berger, E.; ...

2016-05-27

We report initial results of a deep search for an optical counterpart to the gravitational wave event GW150914, the first trigger from the Advanced LIGO gravitational wave detectors. We used the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) to image a 102 degmore » $^2$ area, corresponding to 38% of the initial trigger high-probability sky region and to 11% of the revised high-probability region. We observed in i and z bands at 4-5, 7, and 24 days after the trigger. The median $$5\\sigma$$ point-source limiting magnitudes of our search images are i=22.5 and z=21.8 mag. We processed the images through a difference-imaging pipeline using templates from pre-existing Dark Energy Survey data and publicly available DECam data. Due to missing template observations and other losses, our effective search area subtends 40 deg$$^{2}$$, corresponding to 12% total probability in the initial map and 3% of the final map. In this area, we search for objects that decline significantly between days 4-5 and day 7, and are undetectable by day 24, finding none to typical magnitude limits of i= 21.5,21.1,20.1 for object colors (i-z)=1,0,-1, respectively. Our search demonstrates the feasibility of a dedicated search program with DECam and bodes well for future research in this emerging field.« less

A Dark Energy Camera Search for an Optical Counterpart to the First Advanced LIGO Gravitational Wave Event GW150914

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soares-Santos, M.; Kessler, R.; Burger, E.; Annis, J.; Brout, D.; Buckley-Geer, E.; Chen, H.; Cowperthwaite, P. S.; Diehl, H.T.; Doctor, Z.;

Geometrical Relationship Between Interplanetary Flux Ropes and Their Solar Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marubashi, K.; Akiyama, S.; Yashiro, S.; Gopalswamy, N.; Cho, K.-S.; Park, Y.-D.

2015-05-01

We investigated the physical connection between interplanetary flux ropes (IFRs) near Earth and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) by comparing the magnetic field structures of IFRs and CME source regions. The analysis is based on the list of 54 pairs of ICMEs (interplanetary coronal mass ejections) and CMEs that are taken to be the most probable solar source events. We first attempted to identify the flux rope structure in each of the 54 ICMEs by fitting models with a cylinder and torus magnetic field geometry, both with a force-free field structure. This analysis determined the possible geometries of the identified flux ropes. Then we compared the flux rope geometries with the magnetic field structure of the solar source regions. We obtained the following results: (1) Flux rope structures are seen in 51 ICMEs out of the 54. The result implies that all ICMEs have an intrinsic flux rope structure, if the three exceptional cases are attributed to unfavorable observation conditions. (2) It is possible to find flux rope geometries with the main axis orientation close to the orientation of the magnetic polarity inversion line (PIL) in the solar source regions, the differences being less than 25°. (3) The helicity sign of an IFR is strongly controlled by the location of the solar source: flux ropes with positive (negative) helicity are associated with sources in the southern (northern) hemisphere (six exceptions were found). (4) Over two-thirds of the sources in the northern hemisphere are concentrated along PILs with orientations of 45° ± 30° (measured clockwise from the east), and over two-thirds in the southern hemisphere along PILs with orientations of 135° ± 30°, both corresponding to the Hale boundaries. These results strongly support the idea that a flux rope with the main axis parallel to the PIL erupts in a CME and that the erupted flux rope propagates through the interplanetary space with its orientation maintained and is observed as an IFR.

Assessment of Groundwater Susceptibility to Non-Point Source Contaminants Using Three-Dimensional Transient Indexes.

PubMed

Zhang, Yong; Weissmann, Gary S; Fogg, Graham E; Lu, Bingqing; Sun, HongGuang; Zheng, Chunmiao

2018-06-05

Groundwater susceptibility to non-point source contamination is typically quantified by stable indexes, while groundwater quality evolution (or deterioration globally) can be a long-term process that may last for decades and exhibit strong temporal variations. This study proposes a three-dimensional (3- d ), transient index map built upon physical models to characterize the complete temporal evolution of deep aquifer susceptibility. For illustration purposes, the previous travel time probability density (BTTPD) approach is extended to assess the 3- d deep groundwater susceptibility to non-point source contamination within a sequence stratigraphic framework observed in the Kings River fluvial fan (KRFF) aquifer. The BTTPD, which represents complete age distributions underlying a single groundwater sample in a regional-scale aquifer, is used as a quantitative, transient measure of aquifer susceptibility. The resultant 3- d imaging of susceptibility using the simulated BTTPDs in KRFF reveals the strong influence of regional-scale heterogeneity on susceptibility. The regional-scale incised-valley fill deposits increase the susceptibility of aquifers by enhancing rapid downward solute movement and displaying relatively narrow and young age distributions. In contrast, the regional-scale sequence-boundary paleosols within the open-fan deposits "protect" deep aquifers by slowing downward solute movement and displaying a relatively broad and old age distribution. Further comparison of the simulated susceptibility index maps to known contaminant distributions shows that these maps are generally consistent with the high concentration and quick evolution of 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane (DBCP) in groundwater around the incised-valley fill since the 1970s'. This application demonstrates that the BTTPDs can be used as quantitative and transient measures of deep aquifer susceptibility to non-point source contamination.

Proper motions and membership probabilities of stars in the region of globular cluster NGC 6366

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sariya, Devesh P.; Yadav, R. K. S.

2015-12-01

Context. NGC 6366 is a metal-rich globular cluster that is relatively unstudied. It is a kinematically interesting cluster, reported as belonging to the slowly rotating halo system, which is unusual given its metallicity and spatial location in the Galaxy. Aims: The purpose of this research is to determine the relative proper motion and membership probability of the stars in the region of globular cluster NGC 6366. To target cluster members reliably during spectroscopic surveys without including field stars, a good proper motion and membership probability catalogue of NGC 6366 is needed. Methods: To derive relative proper motions, the archival data from the Wide Field Imager mounted on the ESO 2.2 m telescope have been reduced using a high precision astrometric software. The images used are in the B,V, and I photometric bands with an epoch gap of ~3.2 yr. The calibrated BVI magnitudes have been determined using recent data for secondary standard stars. Results: We determined relative proper motions and cluster membership probabilities for 2530 stars in the field of globular cluster NGC 6366. The median proper motion rms errors for stars brighter than V ~ 18 mag is ~2 mas yr-1, which gradually increases to ~5 mas yr-1 for stars having magnitudes V ~ 20 mag. Based on the membership catalogue, we checked the membership status of the X-ray sources and variable stars of NGC 6366 mentioned in the literature. We also provide the astronomical community with an electronic catalogue that includes B, V, and I magnitudes; relative proper motions; and membership probabilities of the stars in the region of NGC 6366. Based on observations with the MPG/ESO 2.2 m and ESO/VLT telescopes, located at La Silla and Paranal Observatory, Chile, under DDT programs 164.O-0561(F), 71.D-0220(A) and the archive material.Full Table 4 is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/584/A59

Enhanced Methane Emissions during Amazonian Drought by Biomass Burning

PubMed Central

Ito, Akihiko; Yokota, Tatsuya; Maksyutov, Shamil

2016-01-01

The Amazon is a significant source of atmospheric methane, but little is known about the source response to increasing drought severity and frequency. We investigated satellite observations of atmospheric column-averaged methane for the 2010 drought and subsequent 2011 wet year in the Amazon using an atmospheric inversion scheme. Our analysis indicates an increase in atmospheric methane over the southern Amazon region during the drought, representing an increase in annual emissions relative to the wet year. We attribute the increase to emissions from biomass burning driven by intense drought, combined with carbon monoxide showing seasonal variations corresponding to methane variations. We show that there is probably a strong correspondence between drought and methane emissions in the Amazon. PMID:27851783

Faraday Rotation: Effect of Magnetic Field Reversals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melrose, D. B.

2010-12-01

The standard formula for the rotation measure (RM), which determines the position angle, ψ = RMλ2, due to Faraday rotation, includes contributions only from the portions of the ray path where the natural modes of the plasma are circularly polarized. In small regions of the ray path where the projection of the magnetic field on the ray path reverses sign (called QT regions) the modes are nearly linearly polarized. The neglect of QT regions in estimating RM is not well justified at frequencies below a transition frequency where mode coupling changes from strong to weak. By integrating the polarization transfer equation across a QT region in the latter limit, I estimate the additional contribution Δψ needed to correct this omission. In contrast with a result proposed by Broderick & Blandford, Δψ is small and probably unobservable. I identify a new source of circular polarization, due to mode coupling in an asymmetric QT region. I also identify a new circular-polarization-dependent correction to the dispersion measure at low frequencies.

Abrupt uplift within the past 1700 years at Southern Puget Sound, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bucknam, R.C.; Hemphill-Haley, E.; Leopold, E.B.

1992-01-01

Shorelines rose as much as 7 meters along southern Puget Sound and Hood Canal between 500 and 1700 years ago. Evidence for this uplift consists of elevated wave-cut shore platforms near Seattle and emerged, peat-covered tidal flats as much as 60 kilometers to the southwest. The uplift was too rapid for waves to leave intermediate shorelines on even the best preserved platform. The tidal flats also emerged abruptly; they changed into freshwater swamps and meadows without first becoming tidal marshes. Where uplift was greatest, it adjoined an inferred fault that crosses Puget Sound at Seattle and it probably accompanied reverse slip on that fault 1000 to 1100 years ago. The uplift and probable fault slip show that the crust of the North America plate contains potential sources of damaging earthquakes in the Puget Sound region.

Sources of support for remote sensing education

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, J. E.

1981-01-01

Past financial support for educational programs in remote sensing came largely in the form of short courses funded by the National Science Foundation. Later NASA began to fund such courses for local and state government and for some university participants in its regional programs. The greater impact came from the funding by a variety of federal agencies for remote sensing research projects at educational institutions throughout the country. Probably the best and most significant example of these programs, from the university standpoint is, and should continue to be, the NASA university affairs programs, which with its long term step funding of a number of institutions has probably done more for remote sensing education than any other federal program in this country. An incomplete listing of federal agencies that support remote sensing research at the university level is presented.

Assessing pathogen risk to swimmers at non-sewage impacted recreational beaches.

PubMed

Schoen, Mary E; Ashbolt, Nicholas J

2010-04-01

The risk of gastrointestinal illness to swimmers from fresh sewage and non-sewage fecal sources at recreational beaches was predicted using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The QMRA estimated the probability of illness for accidental ingestion of recreational water with a specific concentration of fecal indicator bacteria, here the geometric mean enterococci limit of 35 cfu 100 mL(-1), from either a mixture of sources or an individual source. Using seagulls as an example non-sewage fecal source, the predicted median probability of illness was less than the illness benchmark of 0.01. When the fecal source was changed to poorly treated sewage, a relativity small difference between the median probability of illness and the illness benchmark was predicted. For waters impacted by a mixture of seagull and sewage waste, the dominant source of fecal indicator was not always the predicted dominant source of risk.

An Earthquake Rupture Forecast model for central Italy submitted to CSEP project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pace, B.; Peruzza, L.

2009-04-01

We defined a seismogenic source model for central Italy and computed the relative forecast scenario, in order to submit the results to the CSEP (Collaboratory for the study of Earthquake Predictability, www.cseptesting.org) project. The goal of CSEP project is developing a virtual, distributed laboratory that supports a wide range of scientific prediction experiments in multiple regional or global natural laboratories, and Italy is the first region in Europe for which fully prospective testing is planned. The model we propose is essentially the Layered Seismogenic Source for Central Italy (LaSS-CI) we published in 2006 (Pace et al., 2006). It is based on three different layers of sources: the first one collects the individual faults liable to generate major earthquakes (M >5.5); the second layer is given by the instrumental seismicity analysis of the past two decades, which allows us to evaluate the background seismicity (M ~<5.0). The third layer utilizes all the instrumental earthquakes and the historical events not correlated to known structures (4.5

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Spatial structure of young stellar clusters. I. (Kuhn+, 2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, M. A.; Feigelson, E. D.; Getman, K. V.; Baddeley, A. J.; Broos, P. S.; Sills, A.; Bate, M. R.; Povich, M. S.; Luhman, K. L.; Busk, H. A.; Naylor, T.; King, R. R.

2015-07-01

The regions included in this study, listed in Table 1, are nearby sites of high-mass star formation that are included in the MYStIX sample (Feigelson et al. 2013ApJS..209...26F). These regions are covered in the near-IR by the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (King et al. 2013, J/ApJS/209/28) or Two-Micron All Sky Survey (Skrutskie et al. 2006, VII/233), in the mid-IR by Spitzer IRAC observations (Kuhn et al. 2013, J/ApJS/209/29), and in the X-ray by the ACIS-I array on the Chandra X-Ray Observatory in the 0.5-8.0keV band (Kuhn et al. 2013, J/ApJS/209/27; Townsley et al. 2014, J/ApJS/213/1). Other sources to produce multiwavelength catalogs are described in section 2. The multiwavelength point-source catalogs are combined with a list of spectroscopic OB stars from the literature, and sources are classified probabilistically to obtain a list of MYStIX Probable Complex Members (MPCMs) (Broos et al. 2013, J/ApJS/209/32). (3 data files).

Stochastic analysis of concentration field in a wake region.

PubMed

Yassin, Mohamed F; Elmi, Abdirashid A

2011-02-01

Identifying geographic locations in urban areas from which air pollutants enter the atmosphere is one of the most important information needed to develop effective mitigation strategies for pollution control. Stochastic analysis is a powerful tool that can be used for estimating concentration fluctuation in plume dispersion in a wake region around buildings. Only few studies have been devoted to evaluate applications of stochastic analysis to pollutant dispersion in an urban area. This study was designed to investigate the concentration fields in the wake region using obstacle model such as an isolated building model. We measured concentration fluctuations at centerline of various downwind distances from the source, and different heights with the frequency of 1 KHz. Concentration fields were analyzed stochastically, using the probability density functions (pdf). Stochastic analysis was performed on the concentration fluctuation and the pdf of mean concentration, fluctuation intensity, and crosswind mean-plume dispersion. The pdf of the concentration fluctuation data have shown a significant non-Gaussian behavior. The lognormal distribution appeared to be the best fit to the shape of concentration measured in the boundary layer. We observed that the plume dispersion pdf near the source was shorter than the plume dispersion far from the source. Our findings suggest that the use of stochastic technique in complex building environment can be a powerful tool to help understand the distribution and location of air pollutants.

Vestas Pinaria Region: Original Basaltic Achondrite Material Derived from Mixing Upper and Lower Crust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcfadden, L. A.; Combe, Jean-Philippe; Ammannito, Eleonora; Frigeri, Alessandro; Stephan, Katrin; Longobardo, Andrea; Palomba, Ernesto; Tosi, Federico; Zambon, Francesca; Krohn, Katrin;

Chips off of Asteroid 4 Vesta: Evidence for the Parent Body of Basaltic Achondrite Meteorites.

PubMed

Binzel, R P; Xu, S

1993-04-09

For more than two decades, asteroid 4 Vesta has been debated as the source for the eucrite, diogenite, and howardite classes of basaltic achondrite meteorites. Its basaltic achondrite spectral properties are unlike those of other large main-belt asteroids. Telescopic measurements have revealed 20 small (diameters

The nuclear window to the extragalactic universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdmann, M.; Müller, G.; Urban, M.; Wirtz, M.

2016-12-01

We investigate two recent parameterizations of the galactic magnetic field with respect to their impact on cosmic nuclei traversing the field. We present a comprehensive study of the size of angular deflections, dispersion in the arrival probability distributions, multiplicity in the images of arrival on Earth, variance in field transparency, and influence of the turbulent field components. To remain restricted to ballistic deflections, a cosmic nucleus with energy E and charge Z should have a rigidity above E / Z = 6 EV. In view of the differences resulting from the two field parameterizations as a measure of current knowledge in the galactic field, this rigidity threshold may have to be increased. For a point source search with E/Z ≥ 60 EV, field uncertainties increase the required signal events for discovery moderately for sources in the northern and southern regions, but substantially for sources near the galactic disk.

Prevalence of multiple sclerosis in the region of Osona, Catalonia, northern Spain.

PubMed Central

Bufill, E; Blesa, R; Galan, I; Dean, G

1995-01-01

To ascertain the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in the region of Osona in Catalonia, northern Spain, an intensive study was undertaken in a small population of 72,000 people over a period of five years, using many sources of information. Patients were classified according to the Poser criteria. Most of the patients presented with mild symptoms only and many had not seen a neurologist or attended a large hospital. The prevalence of definite and probable multiple sclerosis was 58 per 100,000. This is nine to 10 times higher than had been found previously in Catalonia and is a similar prevalence to that found in southern Spain, in Sicily, and in Greek speaking Cyprus. Images PMID:7745405

The Kingak shale of northern Alaska-regional variations in organic geochemical properties and petroleum source rock quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Magoon, L.B.; Claypool, G.E.

1984-01-01

The Kingak Shale, a thick widespread rock unit in northern Alaska that ranges in age from Early Jurassic through Early Cretaceous, has adequate to good oil source rock potential. This lenticular-shaped rock unit is as much as 1200 m thick near the Jurassic shelf edge, where its present-day burial depth is about 5000 m. Kingak sediment, transported in a southerly direction, was deposited on the then marine continental shelf. The rock unit is predominantly dark gray Shale with some interbeds of thick sandstone and siltstone. The thermal maturity of organic matter in the Kingak Shale ranges from immature (2.0%R0) in the Colville basin toward the south. Its organic carbon and hydrogen contents are highest in the eastern part of northern Alaska south of and around the Kuparuk and Prudhoe Bay oil fields. Carbon isotope data of oils and rock extracts indicate that the Kingak Shale is a source of some North Slope oil, but is probably not the major source. ?? 1984.

Potential sources of precipitation in Lake Baikal basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukurov, K. A.; Mokhov, I. I.

2017-11-01

Based on the data of long-term measurements at 23 meteorological stations in the Russian part of the Lake Baikal basin the probabilities of daily precipitation with different intensity and their contribution to the total precipitation are estimated. Using the trajectory model HYSPLIT_4 for each meteorological station for the period 1948-2016 the 10-day backward trajectories of air parcels, the height of these trajectories and distribution of specific humidity along the trajectories are calculated. The average field of power of potential sources of daily precipitation (less than 10 mm) for all meteorological stations in the Russian part of the Lake Baikal basin was obtained using the CWT (concentration weighted trajectory) method. The areas have been identified from which within 10 days water vapor can be transported to the Lake Baikal basin, as well as regions of the most and least powerful potential sources. The fields of the mean height of air parcels trajectories and the mean specific humidity along the trajectories are compared with the field of mean power of potential sources.

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Herschel observations of the Galactic H II region RCW 79

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hong-Li; Figueira, Miguel; Zavagno, Annie; Hill, Tracey; Schneider, Nicola; Men'shchikov, Alexander; Russeil, Delphine; Motte, Frédérique; Tigé, Jérémy; Deharveng, Lise; Anderson, Loren D.; Li, Jin-Zeng; Wu, Yuefang; Yuan, Jing-Hua; Huang, Maohai

2017-06-01

Context. Triggered star formation around H II regions could be an important process. The Galactic H II region RCW 79 is a prototypical object for triggered high-mass star formation. Aims: We aim to obtain a census of the young stellar population observed at the edges of the H II region and to determine the properties of the young sources in order to characterize the star formation processes that take place at the edges of this ionized region. Methods: We take advantage of Herschel data from the surveys HOBYS, "Evolution of Interstellar Dust", and Hi-Gal to extract compact sources. We use the algorithm getsources. We complement the Herschel data with archival 2MASS, Spitzer, and WISE data to determine the physical parameters of the sources (e.g., envelope mass, dust temperature, and luminosity) by fitting the spectral energy distribution. Results: We created the dust temperature and column density maps along with the column density probability distribution function (PDF) for the entire RCW 79 region. We obtained a sample of 50 compact sources in this region, 96% of which are situated in the ionization-compressed layer of cold and dense gas that is characterized by the column density PDF with a double-peaked lognormal distribution. The 50 sources have sizes of 0.1-0.4 pc with a typical value of 0.2 pc, temperatures of 11-26 K, envelope masses of 6-760 M⊙, densities of 0.1-44 × 105 cm-3, and luminosities of 19-12 712 L⊙. The sources are classified into 16 class 0, 19 intermediate, and 15 class I objects. Their distribution follows the evolutionary tracks in the diagram of bolometric luminosity versus envelope mass (Lbol-Menv) well. A mass threshold of 140 M⊙, determined from the Lbol-Menv diagram, yields 12 candidate massive dense cores that may form high-mass stars. The core formation efficiency (CFE) for the 8 massive condensations shows an increasing trend of the CFE with density. This suggests that the denser the condensation, the higher the fraction of its mass transformation into dense cores, as previously observed in other high-mass star-forming regions. Herschel is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA.Final reduced data and maps used in the paper (FITS format) are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/602/A95

K-Rich Basaltic Sources beneath Ultraslow Spreading Central Lena Trough in the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, X.; Snow, J. E.; Li, Y.

2016-12-01

Magma sources fundamentally influence accretion processes at ultraslow spreading ridges. Potassium enriched Mid-Ocean Ridge Basalt (K-MORB) was dredged from the central Lena Trough (CLT) in the Arctic Ocean (Nauret et al., 2011). Its geochemical signatures indicate a heterogeneous mantle source with probable garnet present under low pressure. To explore the basaltic mantle sources beneath the study area, multiple models are carried out predicting melting sources and melting P-T conditions in this study. P-T conditions are estimated by the experimental derived thermobarometer from Hoang and Flower (1998). Batch melting model and major element model (AlphaMELTs) are used to calculate the heterogeneous mantle sources. The modeling suggests phlogopite is the dominant H2O-K bearing mineral in the magma source. 5% partial melting of phlogopite and amphibole mixing with depleted mantle (DM) melt is consistent with the incompatible element pattern of CLT basalt. P-T estimation shows 1198-1212oC/4-7kbar as the possible melting condition for CLT basalt. Whereas the chemical composition of north Lena Trough (NLT) basalt is similar to N-MORB, and the P-T estimation corresponds to 1300oC normal mantle adiabat. The CLT basalt bulk composition is of mixture of 40% of the K-MORB endmember and an N-MORB-like endmember similar to NLT basalt. Therefore the binary mixing of the two endmembers exists in the CLT region. This kind of mixing infers to the tectonic evolution of the region, which is simultaneous to the Arctic Ocean opening.

Infrasonic ray tracing applied to mesoscale atmospheric structures: refraction by hurricanes.

PubMed

Bedard, Alfred J; Jones, R Michael

2013-11-01

A ray-tracing program is used to estimate the refraction of infrasound by the temperature structure of the atmosphere and by hurricanes represented by a Rankine-combined vortex wind plus a temperature perturbation. Refraction by the hurricane winds is significant, giving rise to regions of focusing, defocusing, and virtual sources. The refraction of infrasound by the temperature anomaly associated with a hurricane is small, probably no larger than that from uncertainties in the wind field. The results are pertinent to interpreting ocean wave generated infrasound in the vicinities of tropical cyclones.

The quark-hadron phase transition and primordial nucleosynthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hogan, Craig J.

1987-01-01

After presenting the current view of the processes taking place during the cosmological transition from 'quark soup' to normal hadron matter, attention is given to what happens to cosmological nucleosynthesis in the presence of small-scale baryon inhomogeneities. The QCD phase transition is among the plausible sources of this inhomogeneity. It is concluded that the formation of primordial 'quark nuggets' and other cold exotica requires very low entropy regions at the outset, and that even the more modest nonlinearities perturbing nucleosynthesis probably require some ingredient in addition to a quiescent, mildly supercooled transition.

THE BOLOCAM GALACTIC PLANE SURVEY. XII. DISTANCE CATALOG EXPANSION USING KINEMATIC ISOLATION OF DENSE MOLECULAR CLOUD STRUCTURES WITH {sup 13}CO(1-0)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellsworth-Bowers, Timothy P.; Glenn, Jason; Rosolowsky, Erik

2015-01-20

We present an expanded distance catalog for 1710 molecular cloud structures identified in the Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey (BGPS) version 2, representing a nearly threefold increase over the previous BGPS distance catalog. We additionally present a new method for incorporating extant data sets into our Bayesian distance probability density function (DPDF) methodology. To augment the dense-gas tracers (e.g., HCO{sup +}(3-2), NH{sub 3}(1,1)) used to derive line-of-sight velocities for kinematic distances, we utilize the Galactic Ring Survey (GRS) {sup 13}CO(1-0) data to morphologically extract velocities for BGPS sources. The outline of a BGPS source is used to select a region ofmore » the GRS {sup 13}CO data, along with a reference region to subtract enveloping diffuse emission, to produce a line profile of {sup 13}CO matched to the BGPS source. For objects with a HCO{sup +}(3-2) velocity, ≈95% of the new {sup 13}CO(1-0) velocities agree with that of the dense gas. A new prior DPDF for kinematic distance ambiguity (KDA) resolution, based on a validated formalism for associating molecular cloud structures with known objects from the literature, is presented. We demonstrate this prior using catalogs of masers with trigonometric parallaxes and H II regions with robust KDA resolutions. The distance catalog presented here contains well-constrained distance estimates for 20% of BGPS V2 sources, with typical distance uncertainties ≲ 0.5 kpc. Approximately 75% of the well-constrained sources lie within 6 kpc of the Sun, concentrated in the Scutum-Centaurus arm. Galactocentric positions of objects additionally trace out portions of the Sagittarius, Perseus, and Outer arms in the first and second Galactic quadrants, and we also find evidence for significant regions of interarm dense gas.« less

A multi-wavelength investigation of Seyfert 1.8 and 1.9 galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trippe, Margaret L.

We focus on determining the underlying physical cause of a Seyfert galaxy's appearance as type a 1.8 or 1.9. Are these "intermediate" Seyfert types typical Seyfert 1 nuclei reddened by central dusty tori or by nuclear dust lanes/spirals in the narrow-line region? Or, are they similar to NGC 2992, objects that have intrinsically weak continua and weak broad emission lines? Our study compares measurements of the reddenings of the narrow and broad-line regions with each other and with the X-ray column derived from XMM Newton 0.5--10 keV spectra to determine the presence and location of dust in the line of sight for a sample of 35 Seyfert 1.8s and 1.9s. From this, we find that Seyfert 1.9s are an almost equal mix of low-flux objects with unreddened broad line regions, and objects with broad line regions reddened by an internal dust source, either the torus or dust structures on the same size scale as the narrow line region. The 1.9s that recieved this designation due to a low continuum flux state showed variable type classifications. All three of the Seyfert 1.8s in our study are probably in low continuum states. Many objects have been misclassified as Seyfert 1.8/1.9s in the past, probably due to improper [N II]/Halpha deconvolution leading to a false detection of weak broad Halpha. INDEX WORDS: Active galaxies, Seyfert galaxies, Optical spectroscopy, X-ray spectroscopy, Astronomical dust

X-ray Binaries in the Central Region of M31

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trudolyubov, Sergey P.; Priedhorsky, W. C.; Cordova, F. A.

2006-09-01

We present the results of the systematic survey of X-ray sources in the central region of M31 using the data of XMM-Newton observations. The spectral properties and variability of 124 bright X-ray sources were studied in detail. We found that more than 80% of sources observed in two or more observations show significant variability on the time scales of days to years. At least 50% of the sources in our sample are spectrally variable. The fraction of variable sources in our survey is much higher than previously reported from Chandra survey of M31, and is remarkably close to the fraction of variable sources found in M31 globular cluster X-ray source population. We present spectral distribution of M31 X-ray sources, based on the spectral fitting with a power law model. The distribution of spectral photon index has two main peaks at 1.8 and 2.3, and shows clear evolution with source luminosity. Based on the similarity of the properties of M31 X-ray sources and their Galactic counterparts, we expect most of X-ray sources in our sample to be accreting binary systems with neutron star and black hole primaries. Combining the results of X-ray analysis (X-ray spectra, hardness-luminosity diagrams and variability) with available data at other wavelengths, we explore the possibility of distinguishing between bright neutron star and black hole binary systems, and identify 7% and 25% of sources in our sample as a probable black hole and neutron star candidates. Finally, we compare the M31 X-ray source population to the source populations of normal galaxies of different morphological type. Support for this work was provided through NASA Grant NAG5-12390. Part of this work was done during a summer workshop ``Revealing Black Holes'' at the Aspen Center for Physics, S. T. is grateful to the Center for their hospitality.

Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: the example of four Icelandic volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sebastien; Scaini, Chiara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Smith, Kate; Folch, Arnau; Höskuldsson, Armann; Galderisi, Adriana

2014-05-01

In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future Icelandic volcanic eruptions, we developed a new approach to assess the impact associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. Target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. We combined stratigraphic studies, probabilistic strategies and numerical modelling to develop comprehensive eruption scenarios and compile hazard maps for local ground deposition and regional atmospheric concentration using both TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models. New algorithms for the identification of comprehensive probability density functions of eruptive source parameters were developed for both short and long-lasting activity scenarios. A vulnerability assessment of socioeconomic and territorial aspects was also performed at both national and continental scales. The identification of relevant vulnerability indicators allowed for the identification of the most critical areas and territorial nodes. At a national scale, the vulnerability of economic activities and the accessibility to critical infrastructures was assessed. At a continental scale, we assessed the vulnerability of the main airline routes and airports. Resulting impact and risk were finally assessed by combining hazard and vulnerability analysis.

Ecological risk assessment of a coastal zone in Southern Vietnam: Spatial distribution and content of heavy metals in water and surface sediments of the Thi Vai Estuary and Can Gio Mangrove Forest.

PubMed

Costa-Böddeker, Sandra; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Thuyên, Lê Xuân; Huy, Hoang Duc; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Richter, Otto; Schwalb, Antje

2017-01-30

Enrichment of heavy metals was assessed in the Thi Vai Estuary and in the Can Gio Mangrove Forest (SE, Vietnam). Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn contents in water and in sediments were measured. Total organic carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and C/N ratios were determined. Cu and Cr values were higher than threshold effect level of toxicity, while Ni exceeded probable effect level, indicating the risk of probable toxicity effects. Enrichment factors (EF), contamination factor (CF) and Geo-accumulation index (I-geo) were determined. CF reveals moderate to considerable pollution with Cr and Ni. EF suggests anthropogenic sources of Cr, Cu and Ni. I-geo indicates low contamination with Co, Cu and Zn and moderate contamination with Cr and Ni. Overall metal contents were lower than expected for this highly industrialized region, probably due to dilution, suggesting that erosion rates and hydrodynamics may also play a role in metal contents distribution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spectral Models of Neutron Star Magnetospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romani, Roger W.

1997-01-01

We revisit the association of unidentified Galactic plane EGRET sources with tracers of recent massive star formation and death. Up-to-date catalogs of OB associations, SNR's, young pulsars, H2 regions and young open clusters were used in finding counterparts for a recent list of EGRET sources. It has been argued for some time that EGRET source positions are correlated with SNR's and OB associations as a class; we extend such analyses by finding additional counterparts and assessing the probability of individual source identifications. Among the several scenarios relating EGRET sources to massive stars, we focus on young neutron stars as the origin of the gamma-ray emission. The characteristics of the candidate identifications are compared to the known gamma-ray pulsar sample and to detailed Galactic population syntheses using our outer gap pulsar model of gamma-ray emission. Both the spatial distribution and luminosity function of the candidates are in good agreement with the model predictions; we infer that young pulsars can account for the bulk of the excess low latitude EGRET sources. We show that with this identification, the gamma-ray point sources provide an important new window into the history of recent massive star death in the solar neighborhood.

Predicting the Occurrence of Haze Events in Southeast Asia using Machine Learning Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. H.; Chulakadabba, A.; Tonks, A.; Yang, Z.; Wang, C.

2017-12-01

Severe local- and regional-scale air pollution episodes typically originate from 1) high emissions of air pollutants, 2) poor dispersion conditions, and 3) trans-boundary pollutant transport. Biomass burning activities have become more frequent in Southeast Asia, especially in Sumatra, Borneo, and the mainland Southeast. Trans-boundary transport of biomass burning aerosols often lead to air quality problems in the region. Furthermore, particulate pollutants from human activities besides biomass burning also play an important role in the air quality of Southeast Asia. Singapore, for example, has a dynamic industrial sector including chemical, electric and metallurgic industries, and is the region's major petroleum-refining center. In addition, natural gas and oil power plants, waste incinerators, active port traffic, and a major regional airport further complicate Singapore's air quality issues. In this study, we compare five Machine Learning algorithms: k-Nearest Neighbors, Linear Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network, to identify haze patterns and determine variable importance. The algorithms were trained using local atmospheric data (i.e. months, atmospheric conditions, wind direction and relative humidity) from three observation stations in Singapore (Changi, Seletar and Paya Labar). We find that the algorithms reveal the associations in data within and between the stations, and provide in-depth interpretation of the haze sources. The algorithms also allow us to predict the probability of haze episodes in Singapore and to determine the correlation between this probability and atmospheric conditions.

Strong temperature gradients and vertical wind shear on MLT region associated to instability source at 23°S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrioli, V. F.; Batista, P. P.; Xu, Jiyao; Yang, Guotao; Chi, Wang; Zhengkuan, Liu

2017-04-01

Na lidar temperature measurements were taken successfully from 2007 to 2009 in the mesopause region over São José dos Campos (23.1°S, 45.9°W). Strong gradients on these vertical temperature profiles are often observed. A simple theoretical study has shown that temperature gradient of at least -8 K/km is required concurrently with the typical tidal wind shear in order to generate dynamical instability in the MLT region. We have studied vertical shear in horizontal wind related to atmospheric tides, inferred by meteor radar, with the aim of analyzing instability occurrence. These wind measurements were taken from an all-sky meteor radar at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45°W). Two years of simultaneous data, wind and temperature, were used in this analysis which represent 79 days, totalizing 589 h of simultaneous observations. We realize that the condition for the local Richardson number (Ri) dropping below the critical value of instability (Ri < 0.25) is often reached in 98% of the analyzed cases. The mean probabilities for occurrence of convective and dynamical instabilities, in the altitude region between 82 and 98 km, were observed to be about 3% and 17.5%, respectively. Additionally, vertical distribution of these probabilities has revealed a weak occurrence of dynamical instability around 90 km, and this fact can be related to the double mesopause typically observed in this site.

Sand Sources Near Athabasca Valles

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-10-29

This image captured by NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter shows a small channel cutting into young volcanic lavas in a region where massive catastrophic flooding took place in the relatively recent past. The Athabasca Valles region includes a vast lava flow, thought to be the youngest on Mars, with even younger outflow channels that were carved by running water. The source of the water is believed to be the Cerberus Fossae valleys to the north, which may have penetrated to an over-pressurized aquifer in the subsurface. Nowadays, erosion by gravity, wind, and frost gradually wears down the rims of the outflow channels. In this scene, we see dark materials along the channel rim that were probably exposed by this erosion. The dark materials are less red than the surrounding surface and so they appear blue in this enhanced color picture. Viewed close up, the dark materials show ripples that suggest they are made up of mobile sand. It is possible that this sand originated elsewhere and simply collected where we see it today, but the fact that sand is not found elsewhere in the scene suggest to us that it is eroding out of the volcanic layers at the retreating rim of the channel. Sand sources are important because mobile sand grains have only a limited lifetime, wearing down and chipping apart each time they impact the surface. Erosion of the volcanic materials in this region may provide sands to replace those that are destroyed. Few such sand sources have so far been identified on Mars. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA18889

Predicting tidal marsh survival or submergence to sea-level rise using Holocene data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, B.; Shennan, I.; Bradley, S.; Cahill, N.; Kirwan, M. L.; Kopp, R. E.; Shaw, T.

2017-12-01

Rising sea level threatens to permanently submerge tidal marsh environments if they cannot accrete faster than the rate of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). But regional and global model simulations of the future ability of marshes to maintain their elevation with respect to the tidal frame are uncertain. The compilation of empirical data for tidal marsh vulnerability is, therefore, essential to address disparities across these simulations. A hitherto unexplored source of empirical data are Holocene records of tidal marsh evolution. In particular, the marshes of Great Britain have survived and submerged while RSLR varied between -7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr, primarily because of the interplay between global ice-volume changes and regional isostatic processes. Here, we reveal the limits to marsh vulnerability are revealed through the analysis of over 400 reconstructions of tidal marsh submergence and conversion to tidal mud flat or open water from 54 regions in Great Britain during the Holocene. Holocene records indicate a 90% probability of tidal marsh submergence at sites with RSLR exceeding 7.3 mm/yr (95% CI: 6.6-8.6 mm/yr). Although most modern tidal marshes in Great Britain have not yet reached these sea-level rise limits, our empirical data suggest widespread concern over their ability to survive rates of sea-level rise in the 21st century under high emission scenarios. Integrating over the uncertainties in both sea-level rise predictions and the response of tidal marshes to sea-level rise, all of Great Britain has a >80% probability of marsh submergence under RCP 8.5 by 2100, with areas of south and eastern England, where the rate of RSLR is increased by glacio-isostatic subsidence, achieving this probability by 2040.

Impact of Major Coronal Mass Ejections on Geospace during 2005 September 7-13

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuming; Xue, Xianghui; Shen, Chenglong; Ye, Pinzhong; Wang, S.; Zhang, Jie

2006-07-01

We have analyzed five major CMEs originating from NOAA active region (AR) 808 during the period of 2005 September 7-13, when the AR 808 rotated from the east limb to near solar meridian. Several factors that affect the probability of the CMEs' encounter with the Earth are demonstrated. The solar and interplanetary observations suggest that the second and third CMEs, originating from E67° and E47°, respectively, encountered the Earth, while the first CME originating from E77° missed the Earth, and the last two CMEs, although originating from E39° and E10°, respectively, probably only grazed the Earth. On the basis of our ice cream cone mode and CME deflection model, we find that the CME span angle and deflection are important for the probability of encountering Earth. The large span angles allowed the middle two CMEs to hit the Earth, even though their source locations were not close to the solar central meridian. The significant deflection made the first CME totally miss the Earth even though it also had wide span angle. The deflection may also have made the last CME nearly miss the Earth even though it originated close to the disk center. We suggest that, in order to effectively predict whether a CME will encounter the Earth, the factors of the CME source location, the span angle, and the interplanetary deflection should all be taken into account.

Impact of major coronal mass ejections on geo-space during September 7 -- 13, 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Xue, X.; Shen, C.; Ye, P.; Wang, S.; Zhang, J.

2006-05-01

We have analyzed five major CMEs originating from NOAA active region (AR) 808 during the period of September 7 to 13, 2005, when the AR 808 rotated from the east limb to near solar meridian. Several factors that affect the probability of the CMEs' encounter with the Earth are demonstrated. The solar and interplanetary observations suggest that the 2nd and 3rd CMEs, originating from E67 and E47 respectively, encountered the Earth, while the 1st CME originating from E77 missed the Earth, and the last two CMEs, originating from E39 and E10 respectively, probably only grazed the Earth. Based on our ice-cream cone model (Xue et al. 2005a) and CME deflection model (Wang et al. 2004b), we find that the CME span angle and deflection are important for the probability of encountering. The large span angles make middle two CMEs hit the Earth, though their source locations were not close to the solar central meridian. The significant deflection makes the first CME totally missed the Earth though it also had wide span angle. The deflection may also make the last CME nearly missed the Earth though it originated close to the disk center. We suggest that, in order to effectively predict whether a CME will encounter the Earth, the factors of the CME source location, the span angle, and the interplanetary deflection should all be taken into account.

Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf.

PubMed

van der Hoop, Julie M; Vanderlaan, Angelia S M; Taggart, Christopher T

2012-10-01

Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary "area to be avoided" (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

F. Perry; R. Youngs

The purpose of this scientific analysis report is threefold: (1) Present a conceptual framework of igneous activity in the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) consistent with the volcanic and tectonic history of this region and the assessment of this history by experts who participated in the probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis (PVHA) (CRWMS M&O 1996 [DIRS 100116]). Conceptual models presented in the PVHA are summarized and applied in areas in which new information has been presented. Alternative conceptual models are discussed, as well as their impact on probability models. The relationship between volcanic source zones defined in the PVHA and structural featuresmore » of the YMR are described based on discussions in the PVHA and studies presented since the PVHA. (2) Present revised probability calculations based on PVHA outputs for a repository footprint proposed in 2003 (BSC 2003 [DIRS 162289]), rather than the footprint used at the time of the PVHA. This analysis report also calculates the probability of an eruptive center(s) forming within the repository footprint using information developed in the PVHA. Probability distributions are presented for the length and orientation of volcanic dikes located within the repository footprint and for the number of eruptive centers (conditional on a dike intersecting the repository) located within the repository footprint. (3) Document sensitivity studies that analyze how the presence of potentially buried basaltic volcanoes may affect the computed frequency of intersection of the repository footprint by a basaltic dike. These sensitivity studies are prompted by aeromagnetic data collected in 1999, indicating the possible presence of previously unrecognized buried volcanoes in the YMR (Blakely et al. 2000 [DIRS 151881]; O'Leary et al. 2002 [DIRS 158468]). The results of the sensitivity studies are for informational purposes only and are not to be used for purposes of assessing repository performance.« less

PARTS: Probabilistic Alignment for RNA joinT Secondary structure prediction

PubMed Central

Harmanci, Arif Ozgun; Sharma, Gaurav; Mathews, David H.

2008-01-01

A novel method is presented for joint prediction of alignment and common secondary structures of two RNA sequences. The joint consideration of common secondary structures and alignment is accomplished by structural alignment over a search space defined by the newly introduced motif called matched helical regions. The matched helical region formulation generalizes previously employed constraints for structural alignment and thereby better accommodates the structural variability within RNA families. A probabilistic model based on pseudo free energies obtained from precomputed base pairing and alignment probabilities is utilized for scoring structural alignments. Maximum a posteriori (MAP) common secondary structures, sequence alignment and joint posterior probabilities of base pairing are obtained from the model via a dynamic programming algorithm called PARTS. The advantage of the more general structural alignment of PARTS is seen in secondary structure predictions for the RNase P family. For this family, the PARTS MAP predictions of secondary structures and alignment perform significantly better than prior methods that utilize a more restrictive structural alignment model. For the tRNA and 5S rRNA families, the richer structural alignment model of PARTS does not offer a benefit and the method therefore performs comparably with existing alternatives. For all RNA families studied, the posterior probability estimates obtained from PARTS offer an improvement over posterior probability estimates from a single sequence prediction. When considering the base pairings predicted over a threshold value of confidence, the combination of sensitivity and positive predictive value is superior for PARTS than for the single sequence prediction. PARTS source code is available for download under the GNU public license at http://rna.urmc.rochester.edu. PMID:18304945

The gamma ray continuum spectrum from the galactic center disk and point sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gehrels, Neil; Tueller, Jack

1992-01-01

A light curve of gamma-ray continuum emission from point sources in the galactic center region is generated from balloon and satellite observations made over the past 25 years. The emphasis is on the wide field-of-view instruments which measure the combined flux from all sources within approximately 20 degrees of the center. These data have not been previously used for point-source analyses because of the unknown contribution from diffuse disk emission. In this study, the galactic disk component is estimated from observations made by the Gamma Ray Imaging Spectrometer (GRIS) instrument in Oct. 1988. Surprisingly, there are several times during the past 25 years when all gamma-ray sources (at 100 keV) within about 20 degrees of the galactic center are turned off or are in low emission states. This implies that the sources are all variable and few in number. The continuum gamma-ray emission below approximately 150 keV from the black hole candidate 1E1740.7-2942 is seen to turn off in May 1989 on a time scale of less than two weeks, significantly shorter than ever seen before. With the continuum below 150 keV turned off, the spectral shape derived from the HEXAGONE observation on 22 May 1989 is very peculiar with a peak near 200 keV. This source was probably in its normal state for more than half of all observations since the mid-1960's. There are only two observations (in 1977 and 1979) for which the sum flux from the point sources in the region significantly exceeds that from 1E1740.7-2942 in its normal state.

Risk Assessment of Pollution Emergencies in Water Source Areas of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Diversion Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Luyao; Feng, Minquan

2018-03-01

[Objective] This study quantitatively evaluated risk probabilities of sudden water pollution accidents under the influence of risk sources, thus providing an important guarantee for risk source identification during water diversion from the Hanjiang River to the Weihe River. [Methods] The research used Bayesian networks to represent the correlation between accidental risk sources. It also adopted the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to combine water quality simulation with state simulation of risk sources, thereby determining standard-exceeding probabilities of sudden water pollution accidents. [Results] When the upstream inflow was 138.15 m3/s and the average accident duration was 48 h, the probabilities were 0.0416 and 0.0056 separately. When the upstream inflow was 55.29 m3/s and the average accident duration was 48 h, the probabilities were 0.0225 and 0.0028 separately. [Conclusions] The research conducted a risk assessment on sudden water pollution accidents, thereby providing an important guarantee for the smooth implementation, operation, and water quality of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Diversion Project.

Assessment of nonpoint-source contamination of the High Plains Aquifer in south-central Kansas, 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helgesen, John O.; Stullken, Lloyd E.; Rutledge, A.T.

1992-01-01

Ground-water quality was assessed in a 5,000-square-mile area of the High Plains aquifer in south-central Kansas that is susceptible to nonpoint-source contamination from agricultural and petroleum-production activities. Of particular interest were agricultural chemicals, mainly atrazine, and oil-derived hydrocarbons, which might occur in association with brines that formerly were disposed into unlined ponds.Random sampling of ground water was done within a framework of discrete land-use areas (irrigated cropland, petroleum-production land containing former brine-disposal ponds, and undeveloped rangeland) of 3 to 10 square miles. Although true baseline water-quality conditions probably are rare, these baseline conditions are represented most closely by ground water beneath the areas of undeveloped rangeland. The sampling design enabled statistical hypothesis testing of the effects of land use, unsaturated-zone lithology, and type of well sampled. Statistical testing was based on nonparametric procedures.Results indicate that regional ground-water quality has been affected by prevailing land-use activities, as shown mainly by increased concentrations of several inorganic constituents. Ground water beneath irrigated cropland is characterized by significantly (95-percent confidence level) larger concentrations of hardness, alkalinity, calcium, magnesium, potassium, fluoride, and nitrite plus nitrate than is water beneath undeveloped rangeland. Nondegraded pesticides generally were not detected in the aquifer, probably because of degradation and sorption. Atrazine is present locally in ground water in small concentrations.Ground water beneath petroleum-production land is characterized by significantly (95-percent confidence level) larger concentrations of hardness, alkalinity, dissolved solids, sodium, and chloride than is water beneath undeveloped rangeland. Nonpoint-source ground-water contamination by oil-derived hydrocarbons was not discernible. The occurrences of trace-organic compounds were similar between petroleum-production land and undeveloped rangeland, which indicates a natural origin for these compounds.The unsaturated zone in the study area is lithologically heterogeneous and contains substantial amounts of clay that inhibit the downward movement of water and solutes. Within the aquifer, the rate of regional lateral flow and solute transport is sufficiently slow so that the ground-water quality reflects overlying land use in discrete areas of several square miles. Regional flow, however, is sufficiently rapid so that the type of well sampled is not important in regional characterization of water quality beneath irrigated cropland; the seasonal pumping of irrigation wells does not appear to divert regional flow enough to cause substantial local anomalies of more mineralized ground water.

Using Multi-Scenario Tsunami Modelling Results combined with Probabilistic Analyses to provide Hazard Information for the South-WestCoast of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.

2009-04-01

Indonesia is located at one of the most active geological subduction zones in the world. Following the most recent seaquakes and their subsequent tsunamis in December 2004 and July 2006 it is expected that also in the near future tsunamis are likely to occur due to increased tectonic tensions leading to abrupt vertical seafloor alterations after a century of relative tectonic silence. To face this devastating threat tsunami hazard maps are very important as base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. In terms of a tsunami impact the hazard assessment is mostly covered by numerical modelling because the model results normally offer the most precise database for a hazard analysis as they include spatially distributed data and their influence to the hydraulic dynamics. Generally a model result gives a probability for the intensity distribution of a tsunami at the coast (or run up) and the spatial distribution of the maximum inundation area depending on the location and magnitude of the tsunami source used. The boundary condition of the source used for the model is mostly chosen by a worst case approach. Hence the location and magnitude which are likely to occur and which are assumed to generate the worst impact are used to predict the impact at a specific area. But for a tsunami hazard assessment covering a large coastal area, as it is demanded in the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project in which the present work is embedded, this approach is not practicable because a lot of tsunami sources can cause an impact at the coast and must be considered. Thus a multi-scenario tsunami model approach is developed to provide a reliable hazard assessment covering large areas. For the Indonesian Early Warning System many tsunami scenarios were modelled by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) at different probable tsunami sources and with different magnitudes along the Sunda Trench. Every modelled scenario delivers the spatial distribution of the inundation for a specific area, the wave height at coast at this area and the estimated times of arrival (ETAs) of the waves, caused by one tsunamigenic source with a specific magnitude. These parameters from the several scenarios can overlap each other along the coast and must be combined to get one comprehensive hazard assessment for all possible future tsunamis at the region under observation. The simplest way to derive the inundation probability along the coast using the multiscenario approach is to overlay all scenario inundation results and to determine how often a point on land will be significantly inundated from the various scenarios. But this does not take into account that the used tsunamigenic sources for the modeled scenarios have different likelihoods of causing a tsunami. Hence a statistical analysis of historical data and geophysical investigation results based on numerical modelling results is added to the hazard assessment, which clearly improves the significance of the hazard assessment. For this purpose the present method is developed and contains a complex logical combination of the diverse probabilities assessed like probability of occurrence for different earthquake magnitudes at different localities, probability of occurrence for a specific wave height at the coast and the probability for every point on land likely to get hit by a tsunami. The values are combined by a logical tree technique and quantified by statistical analysis of historical data and of the tsunami modelling results as mentioned before. This results in a tsunami inundation probability map covering the South West Coast of Indonesia which nevertheless shows a significant spatial diversity offering a good base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. Keywords: tsunami hazard assessment, tsunami modelling, probabilistic analysis, early warning

Tamil merchant in ancient Mesopotamia.

PubMed

Palanichamy, Malliya Gounder; Mitra, Bikash; Debnath, Monojit; Agrawal, Suraksha; Chaudhuri, Tapas Kumar; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2014-01-01

Recent analyses of ancient Mesopotamian mitochondrial genomes have suggested a genetic link between the Indian subcontinent and Mesopotamian civilization. There is no consensus on the origin of the ancient Mesopotamians. They may be descendants of migrants, who founded regional Mesopotamian groups like that of Terqa or they may be merchants who were involved in trans Mesopotamia trade. To identify the Indian source population showing linkage to the ancient Mesopotamians, we screened a total of 15,751 mitochondrial DNAs (11,432 from the literature and 4,319 from this study) representing all major populations of India. Our results although suggest that south India (Tamil Nadu) and northeast India served as the source of the ancient Mesopotamian mtDNA gene pool, mtDNA of these ancient Mesopotamians probably contributed by Tamil merchants who were involved in the Indo-Roman trade.

A Proper Motions Study of the Globular Cluster NGC 3201

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sariya, Devesh P.; Jiang, Ing-Guey; Yadav, R. K. S.

2017-03-01

With a high value of heliocentric radial velocity, a retrograde orbit, and suspected to have an extragalactic origin, NGC 3201 is an interesting globular cluster for kinematical studies. Our purpose is to calculate the relative proper motions (PMs) and membership probability for the stars in the wide region of globular cluster NGC 3201. PM based membership probabilities are used to isolate the cluster sample from the field stars. The membership catalog will help address the question of chemical inhomogeneity in the cluster. Archive CCD data taken with a wide-field imager (WFI) mounted on the ESO 2.2 m telescope are reduced using the high-precision astrometric software developed by Anderson et al. for the WFI images. The epoch gap between the two observational runs is ˜14.3 years. To standardize the BVI photometry, Stetson’s secondary standard stars are used. The CCD data with an epoch gap of ˜14.3 years enables us to decontaminate the cluster stars from field stars efficiently. The median precision of PMs is better than ˜0.8 mas yr-1 for stars having V< 18 mag that increases up to ˜1.5 mas yr-1 for stars with 18< V< 20 mag. Kinematic membership probabilities are calculated using PMs for stars brighter than V˜ 20 mag. An electronic catalog of positions, relative PMs, BVI magnitudes, and membership probabilities in the ˜19.7 × 17 arcmin2 region of NGC 3201 is presented. We use our membership catalog to identify probable cluster members among the known variables and X-ray sources in the direction of NGC 3201. Based on observations with the MPG/ESO 2.2 m and ESO/VLT telescopes, located at La Silla and Paranal Observatory, Chile, under DDT programs 164.O-0561(F), 093.A-9028(A), and the archive material.

Simulation of ground-water flow and the movement of saline water in the Hueco Bolson aquifer, El Paso, Texas, and adjacent areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Groschen, George E.

1994-01-01

Results of the projected withdrawal simulations from 1984-2000 indicate that the general historical trend of saline-water movement probably will continue. The saline water in the Rio Grande alluvium is the major source of saline-water intrusion into the freshwater zone throughout the historical period and into the future on the basis of simulation results. Some saline water probably will continue to move downward from the Rio Grande alluvium to the freshwater below. Injection of treated sewage effluent into some wells will create a small zone of freshwater containing slightly increased amounts of dissolved solids in the northern area of the Texas part of the Hueco bolson aquifer. Many factors, such as well interference, pumping schedules, and other factors not specifically represented in the regional simulation, can substantially affect dissolved-solids concentrations at individual wells.

Aggregation of estimated numbers of undiscovered deposits: an R-script with an example from the Chu Sarysu Basin, Kazakhtan: Chapter B in Global mineral resource assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuenemeyer, John H.; Zientek, Michael L.; Box, Stephen E.

2011-01-01

Mineral resource assessments completed by the U.S. Geological Survey during the past three decades express geologically based estimates of numbers of undiscovered mineral deposits as probability distributions. Numbers of undiscovered deposits of a given type are estimated in geologically defined regions. Using Monte Carlo simulations, these undiscovered deposit estimates are combined with tonnage and grade models to derive a probability distribution describing amounts of commodities and rock that could be present in undiscovered deposits within a study area. In some situations, it is desirable to aggregate the assessment results from several study areas. This report provides a script developed in open-source statistical software, R, that aggregates undiscovered deposit estimates of a given type, assuming independence, total dependence, or some degree of correlation among aggregated areas, given a user-specified correlation matrix.

Statistics of equivalent width data and new oscillator strengths for Si II, Fe II, and Mn II. [in interstellar medium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Buren, Dave

1986-01-01

Equivalent width data from Copernicus and IUE appear to have an exponential, rather than a Gaussian distribution of errors. This is probably because there is one dominant source of error: the assignment of the background continuum shape. The maximum likelihood method of parameter estimation is presented for the case of exponential statistics, in enough generality for application to many problems. The method is applied to global fitting of Si II, Fe II, and Mn II oscillator strengths and interstellar gas parameters along many lines of sight. The new values agree in general with previous determinations but are usually much more tightly constrained. Finally, it is shown that care must be taken in deriving acceptable regions of parameter space because the probability contours are not generally ellipses whose axes are parallel to the coordinate axes.

Depth to the bottom of magnetic sources (DBMS) from aeromagnetic data of Central India using modified centroid method for fractal distribution of sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bansal, A. R.; Anand, S.; Rajaram, M.; Rao, V.; Dimri, V. P.

2012-12-01

The depth to the bottom of the magnetic sources (DBMS) may be used as an estimate of the Curie - point depth. The DBMSs can also be interpreted in term of thermal structure of the crust. The thermal structure of the crust is a sensitive parameter and depends on the many properties of crust e.g. modes of deformation, depths of brittle and ductile deformation zones, regional heat flow variations, seismicity, subsidence/uplift patterns and maturity of organic matter in sedimentary basins. The conventional centroid method of DBMS estimation assumes random uniform uncorrelated distribution of sources and to overcome this limitation a modified centroid method based on fractal distribution has been proposed. We applied this modified centroid method to the aeromagnetic data of the central Indian region and selected 29 half overlapping blocks of dimension 200 km x 200 km covering different parts of the central India. Shallower values of the DBMS are found for the western and southern portion of Indian shield. The DBMSs values are found as low as close to middle crust in the south west Deccan trap and probably deeper than Moho in the Chhatisgarh basin. In few places DBMS are close to the Moho depth found from the seismic study and others places shallower than the Moho. The DBMS indicate complex nature of the Indian crust.

Developing an event-tree probabilistic tsunami inundation model for NE Atlantic coasts: Application to case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana; Matias, Luis

2015-04-01

This study constitutes the first assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region, using an event-tree approach. It aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami inundation approach for the NE Atlantic coast with an application to two test sites of ASTARTE project, Tangier-Morocco and Sines-Portugal. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account near-, regional- and far-filed sources. The multidisciplinary approach, proposed here, consists of an event-tree method that gathers seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modelling, and statistical methods. It presents also a treatment of uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage in order to derive the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height during a given return period. We derive high-resolution probabilistic maximum wave heights and flood distributions for both test-sites Tangier and Sines considering 100-, 500-, and 1000-year return periods. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 55% for 100-year return period, and is up to 100% for 1000-year return period. Along Tangier coast, the probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth > 0m) is up to 45% for 100-year return period and reaches 96% in some near-shore costal location for 500-year return period. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3).

The Lower Silurian Osmundsberg K-bentonite. Part II: Mineralogy, geochemistry, chemostratigraphy and tectonomagmatic significance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huff, W.D.; Bergstrom, Stig M.; Kolata, Dennis R.; Sun, H.

1998-01-01

The Lower Silurian Osmundsberg K-bentonite is a widespread ash bed that occurs throughout Baltoscandia and parts of northern Europe. This paper describes its characteristics at its type locality in the Province of Dalarna, Sweden. It contains mineralogical and chemical characteristics that permit its regional correlation in sections elsewhere in Sweden as well as Norway, Estonia, Denmark and Great Britain. The < 2 ??m clay fraction of the Osmundsberg bed contains abundant kaolinite in addition to randomly ordered (RO) illite/smectite (I/S). Modelling of the X-ray diffraction tracings showed the I/S consists of 18% illite and 82 % smectite. The high smectite and kaolinite content is indicative of a history with minimal burial temperatures. Analytical data from both pristine melt inclusions in primary quartz grains as well as whole rock samples can be used to constrain both the parental magma composition and the probable tectonic setting of the source volcanoes. The parental ash was dacitic to rhyolitic in composition and originated in a tectonically active collision margin setting. Whole rock chemical fingerprinting of coeval beds elsewhere in Baltoscandia produced a pronounced clustering of these samples in the Osmundsberg field of the discriminant analysis diagram. This, together with well-constrained biostratigraphic and lithostratigraphic data, provides the basis for regional correlation and supports the conclusion that the Osmundsberg K-bentonite is one of the most extensive fallout ash beds in the early Phanerozoic. The source volcano probably lay to the west of Baltica as part of the subduction complex associated with the closure of Iapetus.

Detection of the nipple in automated 3D breast ultrasound using coronal slab-average-projection and cumulative probability map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hannah; Hong, Helen

2014-03-01

We propose an automatic method for nipple detection on 3D automated breast ultrasound (3D ABUS) images using coronal slab-average-projection and cumulative probability map. First, to identify coronal images that appeared remarkable distinction between nipple-areola region and skin, skewness of each coronal image is measured and the negatively skewed images are selected. Then, coronal slab-average-projection image is reformatted from selected images. Second, to localize nipple-areola region, elliptical ROI covering nipple-areola region is detected using Hough ellipse transform in coronal slab-average-projection image. Finally, to separate the nipple from areola region, 3D Otsu's thresholding is applied to the elliptical ROI and cumulative probability map in the elliptical ROI is generated by assigning high probability to low intensity region. False detected small components are eliminated using morphological opening and the center point of detected nipple region is calculated. Experimental results show that our method provides 94.4% nipple detection rate.

Time delay and long-range connection induced synchronization transitions in Newman-Watts small-world neuronal networks.

PubMed

Qian, Yu

2014-01-01

The synchronization transitions in Newman-Watts small-world neuronal networks (SWNNs) induced by time delay τ and long-range connection (LRC) probability P have been investigated by synchronization parameter and space-time plots. Four distinct parameter regions, that is, asynchronous region, transition region, synchronous region, and oscillatory region have been discovered at certain LRC probability P = 1.0 as time delay is increased. Interestingly, desynchronization is observed in oscillatory region. More importantly, we consider the spatiotemporal patterns obtained in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs are the competition results between long-range drivings (LRDs) and neighboring interactions. In addition, for moderate time delay, the synchronization of neuronal network can be enhanced remarkably by increasing LRC probability. Furthermore, lag synchronization has been found between weak synchronization and complete synchronization as LRC probability P is a little less than 1.0. Finally, the two necessary conditions, moderate time delay and large numbers of LRCs, are exposed explicitly for synchronization in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs.

Time Delay and Long-Range Connection Induced Synchronization Transitions in Newman-Watts Small-World Neuronal Networks

PubMed Central

Qian, Yu

2014-01-01

The synchronization transitions in Newman-Watts small-world neuronal networks (SWNNs) induced by time delay and long-range connection (LRC) probability have been investigated by synchronization parameter and space-time plots. Four distinct parameter regions, that is, asynchronous region, transition region, synchronous region, and oscillatory region have been discovered at certain LRC probability as time delay is increased. Interestingly, desynchronization is observed in oscillatory region. More importantly, we consider the spatiotemporal patterns obtained in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs are the competition results between long-range drivings (LRDs) and neighboring interactions. In addition, for moderate time delay, the synchronization of neuronal network can be enhanced remarkably by increasing LRC probability. Furthermore, lag synchronization has been found between weak synchronization and complete synchronization as LRC probability is a little less than 1.0. Finally, the two necessary conditions, moderate time delay and large numbers of LRCs, are exposed explicitly for synchronization in delayed Newman-Watts SWNNs. PMID:24810595

High-resolution sampling and analysis of ambient particulate matter in the Pearl River Delta region of southern China: source apportionment and health risk implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Shengzhen; Davy, Perry K.; Huang, Minjuan; Duan, Jingbo; Wang, Xuemei; Fan, Qi; Chang, Ming; Liu, Yiming; Chen, Weihua; Xie, Shanju; Ancelet, Travis; Trompetter, William J.

2018-02-01

Hazardous air pollutants, such as trace elements in particulate matter (PM), are known or highly suspected to cause detrimental effects on human health. To understand the sources and associated risks of PM to human health, hourly time-integrated major trace elements in size-segregated coarse (PM2.5-10) and fine (PM2.5) particulate matter were collected at the industrial city of Foshan in the Pearl River Delta region, China. Receptor modeling of the data set by positive matrix factorization (PMF) was used to identify six sources contributing to PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations at the site. Dominant sources included industrial coal combustion, secondary inorganic aerosol, motor vehicles and construction dust along with two intermittent sources (biomass combustion and marine aerosol). The biomass combustion source was found to be a significant contributor to peak PM2.5 episodes along with motor vehicles and industrial coal combustion. Conditional probability function (CPF) analysis was applied to estimate the source locations using the PMF-resolved source contribution coupled with the surface wind direction data. Health exposure risk of hazardous trace elements (Pb, As, Si, Cr, Mn and Ni) and source-specific values were estimated. The total hazard quotient (HQ) of PM2.5 was 2.09, higher than the acceptable limit (HQ = 1). The total carcinogenic risk (CR) was 3.37 × 10-3 for PM2.5, which was 3 times higher than the least stringent limit (1.0 × 10-4). Among the selected trace elements, As and Pb posed the highest non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks to human health, respectively. In addition, our results show that the industrial coal combustion source is the dominant non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk contributor, highlighting the need for stringent control of this source. This study provides new insight for policy makers to prioritize sources in air quality management and health risk reduction.

California Drought Recovery Assessment Using GRACE Satellite Gravimetry Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, C. A.; Aghakouchak, A.; Madadgar, S.; Tourian, M. J.

2015-12-01

California has been experiencing its most extreme drought in recent history due to a combination of record high temperatures and exceptionally low precipitation. An estimate for when the drought can be expected to end is needed for risk mitigation and water management. A crucial component of drought recovery assessments is the estimation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) deficit. Previous studies on drought recovery have been limited to surface water hydrology (precipitation and/or runoff) for estimating changes in TWS, neglecting the contribution of groundwater deficits to the recovery time of the system. Groundwater requires more time to recover than surface water storage; therefore, the inclusion of groundwater storage in drought recovery assessments is essential for understanding the long-term vulnerability of a region. Here we assess the probability, for varying timescales, of California's current TWS deficit returning to its long-term historical mean. Our method consists of deriving the region's fluctuations in TWS from changes in the gravity field observed by NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. We estimate the probability that meteorological inputs, precipitation minus evaporation and runoff, over different timespans will balance the current GRACE-derived TWS deficit (e.g. in 3, 6, 12 months). This method improves upon previous techniques as the GRACE-derived water deficit comprises all hydrologic sources, including surface water, groundwater, and snow cover. With this empirical probability assessment we expect to improve current estimates of California's drought recovery time, thereby improving risk mitigation.

Model-informed risk assessment for Zika virus outbreaks in the Asia-Pacific regions.

PubMed

Teng, Yue; Bi, Dehua; Xie, Guigang; Jin, Yuan; Huang, Yong; Lin, Baihan; An, Xiaoping; Tong, Yigang; Feng, Dan

2017-05-01

Recently, Zika virus (ZIKV) has been recognized as a significant threat to global public health. The disease was present in large parts of the Americas, the Caribbean, and also the western Pacific area with southern Asia during 2015 and 2016. However, little is known about the factors affecting the transmission of ZIKV. We used Gradient Boosted Regression Tree models to investigate the effects of various potential explanatory variables on the spread of ZIKV, and used current with historical information from a range of sources to assess the risks of future ZIKV outbreaks. Our results indicated that the probability of ZIKV outbreaks increases with vapor pressure, the occurrence of Dengue virus, and population density but decreases as health expenditure, GDP, and numbers of travelers. The predictive results revealed the potential risk countries of ZIKV infection in the Asia-Pacific regions between October 2016 and January 2017. We believe that the high-risk conditions would continue in South Asia and Australia over this period. By integrating information on eco-environmental, social-economical, and ZIKV-related niche factors, this study estimated the probability for locally acquired mosquito-borne ZIKV infections in the Asia-Pacific region and improves the ability to forecast, and possibly even prevent, future outbreaks of ZIKV. Copyright © 2017 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automatic prediction of solar flares and super geomagnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Hui

Space weather is the response of our space environment to the constantly changing Sun. As the new technology advances, mankind has become more and more dependent on space system, satellite-based services. A geomagnetic storm, a disturbance in Earth's magnetosphere, may produce many harmful effects on Earth. Solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are believed to be the major causes of geomagnetic storms. Thus, establishing a real time forecasting method for them is very important in space weather study. The topics covered in this dissertation are: the relationship between magnetic gradient and magnetic shear of solar active regions; the relationship between solar flare index and magnetic features of solar active regions; based on these relationships a statistical ordinal logistic regression model is developed to predict the probability of solar flare occurrences in the next 24 hours; and finally the relationship between magnetic structures of CME source regions and geomagnetic storms, in particular, the super storms when the D st index decreases below -200 nT is studied and proved to be able to predict those super storms. The results are briefly summarized as follows: (1) There is a significant correlation between magnetic gradient and magnetic shear of active region. Furthermore, compared with magnetic shear, magnetic gradient might be a better proxy to locate where a large flare occurs. It appears to be more accurate in identification of sources of X-class flares than M-class flares; (2) Flare index, defined by weighting the SXR flares, is proved to have positive correlation with three magnetic features of active region; (3) A statistical ordinal logistic regression model is proposed for solar flare prediction. The results are much better than those data published in the NASA/SDAC service, and comparable to the data provided by the NOAA/SEC complicated expert system. To our knowledge, this is the first time that logistic regression model has been applied in solar physics to predict flare occurrences; (4) The magnetic orientation angle [straight theta], determined from a potential field model, is proved to be able to predict the probability of super geomagnetic storms (D= st <=-200nT). The results show that those active regions associated with | [straight theta]| < 90° are more likely to cause a super geomagnetic storm.

Towards an accurate real-time locator of infrasonic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinsky, V.; Blom, P.; Polozov, A.; Marcillo, O.; Arrowsmith, S.; Hofstetter, A.

2017-11-01

Infrasonic signals propagate from an atmospheric source via media with stochastic and fast space-varying conditions. Hence, their travel time, the amplitude at sensor recordings and even manifestation in the so-called "shadow zones" are random. Therefore, the traditional least-squares technique for locating infrasonic sources is often not effective, and the problem for the best solution must be formulated in probabilistic terms. Recently, a series of papers has been published about Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization (BISL) method based on the computation of the posterior probability density function (PPDF) of the source location, as a convolution of a priori probability distribution function (APDF) of the propagation model parameters with likelihood function (LF) of observations. The present study is devoted to the further development of BISL for higher accuracy and stability of the source location results and decreasing of computational load. We critically analyse previous algorithms and propose several new ones. First of all, we describe the general PPDF formulation and demonstrate that this relatively slow algorithm might be among the most accurate algorithms, provided the adequate APDF and LF are used. Then, we suggest using summation instead of integration in a general PPDF calculation for increased robustness, but this leads us to the 3D space-time optimization problem. Two different forms of APDF approximation are considered and applied for the PPDF calculation in our study. One of them is previously suggested, but not yet properly used is the so-called "celerity-range histograms" (CRHs). Another is the outcome from previous findings of linear mean travel time for the four first infrasonic phases in the overlapping consecutive distance ranges. This stochastic model is extended here to the regional distance of 1000 km, and the APDF introduced is the probabilistic form of the junction between this travel time model and range-dependent probability distributions of the phase arrival time picks. To illustrate the improvements in both computation time and location accuracy achieved, we compare location results for the new algorithms, previously published BISL-type algorithms and the least-squares location technique. This comparison is provided via a case study of different typical spatial data distributions and statistical experiment using the database of 36 ground-truth explosions from the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) recorded during the US summer season at USArray transportable seismic stations when they were near the site between 2006 and 2008.

Swift J1822.3-1606: A Probable New SGR in Ground Analysis of BAT Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cummings, J. R.; Burrows, D.; Campana, S.; Kennea, J. A.; Krimm, H. A.; Palmer, D. M.; Sakamoto, T.; Zan, S.

2011-07-01

At 2011-07-14 at 12:47:47.1 UTC, Swift-BAT triggered (#457261) on a previously unknown source, Swift J1822.3-1606. This was at the same time as Fermi-GBM trigger #332340476. Only a subthreshold source was detected onboard. There were two subsequent rate increases of similar size, probably from the same source at about T+26 sec and T+308 sec, the latter also causing a rate trigger with no significant source found onboard (#457263).

Insular and submarine ferromanganese mineralization of the Tonga-Lau region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hein, J.R.; Schulz, M.S.; Jung-Keuk, Kang

1990-01-01

Ferromanganese oxides in the Tonga-Lau region are divided into crusts and stratabound deposits. Crusts were collected from the Tonga and Lau Ridges and have Fe/Mn ratios greater than 1, and an average Co content of 0.25%. The crusts average less than 10 mm thick with a maximum of 50 mm, and growth rates of tens of millimeters per million years. The thickest crust is probably less than a million years old. Crusts formed by both hydrogenetic and hydrothermal precipitation, with the hydrothermal input averaging 76%. Stratabound deposits are divided into three types. The source rocks through which the circulating fluids passed controlled the dominant minor element compositions of the stratabound deposits from each area: Valu Fa Ridge, Mo; Tonga Ridge Ti; Tonumea, Sr and Eua, V. -from Authors

North Polar Gypsum Dunes in Olympia Undae

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-07-15

These sand dunes are a type of aeolian bedform and partly encircle the Martian North Pole in a region called Olympia Undae. Unlike most of the sand dunes on Mars that are made of the volcanic rock basalt, these are made of a type of sulfate mineral called gypsum. Whence the sand? Well, gypsum is a mineral that can often form from the evaporation of water that has sulfur and calcium dissolved in it. This sand was probably sourced from a northern region on Mars that used to be quite wet. The boxy gridding of the dunes indicates that the wind blows in multiple directions. Note: "Aeolian" means wind-blown and "bedform" means piles of sediment shaped by a flowing fluid (liquid or gas). http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20743

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

PubMed

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-07-15

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Regional-scale estimates of surface moisture availability and thermal inertia using remote thermal measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, T. N.

1986-01-01

A review is presented of numerical models which were developed to interpret thermal IR data and to identify the governing parameters and surface energy fluxes recorded in the images. Analytic, predictive, diagnostic and empirical models are described. The limitations of each type of modeling approach are explored in terms of the error sources and inherent constraints due to theoretical or measurement limitations. Sample results of regional-scale soil moisture or evaporation patterns derived from the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission and GOES satellite data through application of the predictive model devised by Carlson (1981) are discussed. The analysis indicates that pattern recognition will probably be highest when data are collected over flat, arid, sparsely vegetated terrain. The soil moisture data then obtained may be accurate to within 10-20 percent.

Characterize Framework for Igneous Activity at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

F. Perry; B. Youngs

2000-11-06

The purpose of this Analysis/Model (AMR) report is twofold. (1) The first is to present a conceptual framework of igneous activity in the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) consistent with the volcanic and tectonic history of this region and the assessment of this history by experts who participated in the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) (CRWMS M&O 1996). Conceptual models presented in the PVHA are summarized and extended in areas in which new information has been presented. Alternative conceptual models are discussed as well as their impact on probability models. The relationship between volcanic source zones defined in the PVHA andmore » structural features of the YMR are described based on discussions in the PVHA and studies presented since the PVHA. (2) The second purpose of the AMR is to present probability calculations based on PVHA outputs. Probability distributions are presented for the length and orientation of volcanic dikes within the repository footprint and for the number of eruptive centers located within the repository footprint (conditional on the dike intersecting the repository). The probability of intersection of a basaltic dike within the repository footprint was calculated in the AMR ''Characterize Framework for Igneous Activity at Yucca Mountain, Nevada'' (CRWMS M&O 2000g) based on the repository footprint known as the Enhanced Design Alternative [EDA II, Design B (CRWMS M&O 1999a; Wilkins and Heath 1999)]. Then, the ''Site Recommendation Design Baseline'' (CRWMS M&O 2000a) initiated a change in the repository design, which is described in the ''Site Recommendation Subsurface Layout'' (CRWMS M&O 2000b). Consequently, the probability of intersection of a basaltic dike within the repository footprint has also been calculated for the current repository footprint, which is called the 70,000 Metric Tons of Uranium (MTU) No-Backfill Layout (CRWMS M&O 2000b). The calculations for both footprints are presented in this AMR. In addition, the probability of an eruptive center(s) forming within the repository footprint is calculated and presented in this AMR for both repository footprint designs. This latter type of calculation was not included in the PVHA.« less

A Lagrangian Identification of the Main Sources of Moisture Affecting Northeastern Brazil during Its Pre-Rainy and Rainy Seasons

PubMed Central

Drumond, Anita; Nieto, Raquel; Trigo, Ricardo; Ambrizzi, Tercio; Souza, Everaldo; Gimeno, Luis

2010-01-01

This work examines the sources of moisture affecting the semi-arid Brazilian Northeast (NEB) during its pre-rainy and rainy season (JFMAM) through a Lagrangian diagnosis method. The FLEXPART model identifies the humidity contributions to the moisture budget over a region through the continuous computation of changes in the specific humidity along back or forward trajectories up to 10 days period. The numerical experiments were done for the period that spans between 2000 and 2004 and results were aggregated on a monthly basis. Results show that besides a minor local recycling component, the vast majority of moisture reaching NEB area is originated in the south Atlantic basin and that the nearby wet Amazon basin bears almost no impact. Moreover, although the maximum precipitation in the “Poligono das Secas” region (PS) occurs in March and the maximum precipitation associated with air parcels emanating from the South Atlantic towards PS is observed along January to March, the highest moisture contribution from this oceanic region occurs slightly later (April). A dynamical analysis suggests that the maximum precipitation observed in the PS sector does not coincide with the maximum moisture supply probably due to the combined effect of the Walker and Hadley cells in inhibiting the rising motions over the region in the months following April. PMID:20585458

Activity interference and noise annoyance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, F. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Birnie, S. E.

1985-11-01

Debate continues over differences in the dose-response functions used to predict the annoyance at different sources of transportation noise. This debate reflects the lack of an accepted model of noise annoyance in residential communities. In this paper a model is proposed which is focussed on activity interference as a central component mediating the relationship between noise exposure and annoyance. This model represents a departure from earlier models in two important respects. First, single event noise levels (e.g., maximum levels, sound exposure level) constitute the noise exposure variables in place of long-term energy equivalent measures (e.g., 24-hour Leq or Ldn). Second, the relationships within the model are expressed as probabilistic rather than deterministic equations. The model has been tested by using acoustical and social survey data collected at 57 sites in the Toronto region exposed to aircraft, road traffic or train noise. Logit analysis was used to estimate two sets of equations. The first predicts the probability of activity interference as a function of event noise level. Four types of interference are included: indoor speech, outdoor speech, difficulty getting to sleep and awakening. The second set predicts the probability of annoyance as a function of the combination of activity interferences. From the first set of equations, it was possible to estimate a function for indoor speech interference only. In this case, the maximum event level was the strongest predictor. The lack of significant results for the other types of interference is explained by the limitations of the data. The same function predicts indoor speech interference for all three sources—road, rail and aircraft noise. The results for the second set of equations show strong relationships between activity interference and the probability of annoyance. Again, the parameters of the logit equations are similar for the three sources. A trial application of the model predicts a higher probability of annoyance for aircraft than for road traffic situations with the same 24-hour Leq. This result suggests that the model may account for previously reported source differences in annoyance.

Numerical study of photon migration in the presence of a void region using the radiative transfer and diffusion equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyakawa, Erina; Fujii, Hiroyuki; Hattori, Kiyohito; Tatekura, Yuki; Kobayashi, Kazumichi; Watanabe, Masao

2016-12-01

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT), which is still under development, has a potential to enable non-invasive diagnoses of thyroid cancers in the human neck using the near-infrared light. This modality needs a photon migration model because scattered light is used. There are two types of photon migration models: the radiative transport equation (RTE) and diffusion equation (DE). The RTE can describe photon migration in the human neck with accuracy, while the DE enables an efficient calculation. For developing the accurate and efficient model of photon migration, it is crucial to investigate a condition where the DE holds in a scattering medium including a void region under the refractive-index mismatch at the void boundary because the human neck has a trachea (void region) and the refractive indices are different between the human neck and trachea. Hence, in this paper, we compare photon migration using the RTE with that using the DE in the medium. The numerical results show that the DE is valid under the refractive-index match at the void boundary even though the void region is near the source and detector positions. Under the refractive-index mismatch at the boundary, the numerical results using the DE disagree with those using the RTE when the void region is near the source and detector positions. This is probably because the anisotropy of the light scattering remains around the void boundary.

Detection of significant cm to sub-mm band radio and  γ-ray correlated variability in Fermi bright blazars

DOE PAGES

Fuhrmann, L.; Larsson, S.; Chiang, J.; ...

2014-05-12

The exact location of the γ-ray emitting region in blazars is still controversial. In order to attack this problem we present first results of a cross-correlation analysis between radio (11 cm to 0.8 mm wavelength, F-GAMMA programme) and γ-ray (0.1–300 GeV) ~3.5 yr light curves of 54 Fermi-bright blazars. We perform a source stacking analysis and estimate significances and chance correlations using mixed source correlations. These results reveal: (i) the first highly significant multiband radio and γ-ray correlations (radio lagging γ rays) when averaging over the whole sample, (ii) average time delays (source frame: 76 ± 23 to 7 ±more » 9 d), systematically decreasing from cm to mm/sub-mm bands with a frequency dependence τr, γ(ν) ∝ ν -1, in good agreement with jet opacity dominated by synchrotron self-absorption, (iii) a bulk γ-ray production region typically located within/upstream of the 3 mm core region (τ3mm, γ = 12 ± 8 d), (iv) mean distances between the region of γ-ray peak emission and the radio ‘τ = 1 photosphere’ decreasing from 9.8 ± 3.0 pc (11 cm) to 0.9 ± 1.1 pc (2 mm) and 1.4 ± 0.8 pc (0.8 mm), (v) 3 mm/γ-ray correlations in nine individual sources at a significance level where one is expected by chance (probability: 4 × 10 -6), (vi) opacity and ‘time lag core shift’ estimates for quasar 3C 454.3 providing a lower limit for the distance of the bulk γ-ray production region from the supermassive black hole (SMBH) of ~0.8–1.6 pc, i.e. at the outer edge of the broad-line region (BLR) or beyond. A 3 mm τ = 1 surface at ~2–3 pc from the jet base (i.e. well outside the ‘canonical BLR’) finally suggests that BLR material extends to several parsec distances from the SMBH.« less

Advanced Tsunami Numerical Simulations and Energy Considerations by use of 3D-2D Coupled Models: The October 11, 1918, Mona Passage Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Venegas, Alberto M.; Horrillo, Juan; Pampell-Manis, Alyssa; Huérfano, Victor; Mercado, Aurelio

2015-06-01

The most recent tsunami observed along the coast of the island of Puerto Rico occurred on October 11, 1918, after a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in the Mona Passage. The earthquake was responsible for initiating a tsunami that mostly affected the northwestern coast of the island. Runup values from a post-tsunami survey indicated the waves reached up to 6 m. A controversy regarding the source of the tsunami has resulted in several numerical simulations involving either fault rupture or a submarine landslide as the most probable cause of the tsunami. Here we follow up on previous simulations of the tsunami from a submarine landslide source off the western coast of Puerto Rico as initiated by the earthquake. Improvements on our previous study include: (1) higher-resolution bathymetry; (2) a 3D-2D coupled numerical model specifically developed for the tsunami; (3) use of the non-hydrostatic numerical model NEOWAVE (non-hydrostatic evolution of ocean WAVE) featuring two-way nesting capabilities; and (4) comprehensive energy analysis to determine the time of full tsunami wave development. The three-dimensional Navier-Stokes model tsunami solution using the Navier-Stokes algorithm with multiple interfaces for two fluids (water and landslide) was used to determine the initial wave characteristic generated by the submarine landslide. Use of NEOWAVE enabled us to solve for coastal inundation, wave propagation, and detailed runup. Our results were in agreement with previous work in which a submarine landslide is favored as the most probable source of the tsunami, and improvement in the resolution of the bathymetry yielded inundation of the coastal areas that compare well with values from a post-tsunami survey. Our unique energy analysis indicates that most of the wave energy is isolated in the wave generation region, particularly at depths near the landslide, and once the initial wave propagates from the generation region its energy begins to stabilize.

The Chandra Source Catalog 2.0: Estimating Source Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Primini, Francis Anthony; Allen, Christopher E.; Miller, Joseph; Anderson, Craig S.; Budynkiewicz, Jamie A.; Burke, Douglas; Chen, Judy C.; Civano, Francesca Maria; D'Abrusco, Raffaele; Doe, Stephen M.; Evans, Ian N.; Evans, Janet D.; Fabbiano, Giuseppina; Gibbs, Danny G., II; Glotfelty, Kenny J.; Graessle, Dale E.; Grier, John D.; Hain, Roger; Hall, Diane M.; Harbo, Peter N.; Houck, John C.; Lauer, Jennifer L.; Laurino, Omar; Lee, Nicholas P.; Martínez-Galarza, Juan Rafael; McCollough, Michael L.; McDowell, Jonathan C.; McLaughlin, Warren; Morgan, Douglas L.; Mossman, Amy E.; Nguyen, Dan T.; Nichols, Joy S.; Nowak, Michael A.; Paxson, Charles; Plummer, David A.; Rots, Arnold H.; Siemiginowska, Aneta; Sundheim, Beth A.; Tibbetts, Michael; Van Stone, David W.; Zografou, Panagoula

2018-01-01

The Second Chandra Source Catalog (CSC2.0) will provide information on approximately 316,000 point or compact extended x-ray sources, derived from over 10,000 ACIS and HRC-I imaging observations available in the public archive at the end of 2014. As in the previous catalog release (CSC1.1), fluxes for these sources will be determined separately from source detection, using a Bayesian formalism that accounts for background, spatial resolution effects, and contamination from nearby sources. However, the CSC2.0 procedure differs from that used in CSC1.1 in three important aspects. First, for sources in crowded regions in which photometric apertures overlap, fluxes are determined jointly, using an extension of the CSC1.1 algorithm, as discussed in Primini & Kashyap (2014ApJ...796…24P). Second, an MCMC procedure is used to estimate marginalized posterior probability distributions for source fluxes. Finally, for sources observed in multiple observations, a Bayesian Blocks algorithm (Scargle, et al. 2013ApJ...764..167S) is used to group observations into blocks of constant source flux.In this poster we present details of the CSC2.0 photometry algorithms and illustrate their performance in actual CSC2.0 datasets.This work has been supported by NASA under contract NAS 8-03060 to the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory for operation of the Chandra X-ray Center.

Water quality functions of riparian forest buffers in Chesapeake bay watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowrance, R.; Altier, L.S.; Newbold, J.D.; Schnabel, R.R.; Groffman, P.M.; Denver, J.M.; Correll, D.L.; Gilliam, J.W.; Robinson, J.L.; Brinsfield, R.B.; Staver, K.W.; Lucas, W.; Todd, A.H.

1997-01-01

Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, USA, have agreed to reduce nutrient loadings to Chesapeake Bay by 40% by the year 2000. This requires control of nonpoint sources of nutrients much of which comes from agriculture. Riparian forest buffer systems (RFBS) provide effective control of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution in some types of agricultural watersheds. Control of NPS pollution is dependent on the type of pollutant and the hydrologic connection between pollution sources, the RFBS, and the stream. Water quality improvements are most likely in areas of where most of the excess precipitation moves across, in, or near the root zone of the RFBS. In areas such as the Inner Coastal Plain and Piedmont watersheds with thin soils RFBS should retain 50%-90% of the total loading of nitrate in shallow groundwater sediment in surface runoff and total N in born surface runoff and groundwater. Retention of phosphorus is generally much less. In regions with deeper soils and/or greater regional groundwater recharge (such as parts of the Piedmont and the Valley and Ridge), RFBS water quality improvements are probably much less. The expected levels of pollutant control by RFBS are identified for each of nine physiographic provinces of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Issues related to of establishment sustainability, and management are also discussed.

Laser Scanning Systems and Techniques in Rockfall Source Identification and Risk Assessment: A Critical Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanos, Ali Mutar; Pradhan, Biswajeet

2018-04-01

Rockfall poses risk to people, their properties and to transportation ways in mountainous and hilly regions. This catastrophe shows various characteristics such as vast distribution, sudden occurrence, variable magnitude, strong fatalness and randomicity. Therefore, prediction of rockfall phenomenon both spatially and temporally is a challenging task. Digital Terrain model (DTM) is one of the most significant elements in rockfall source identification and risk assessment. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) is the most advanced effective technique to derive high-resolution and accurate DTM. This paper presents a critical overview of rockfall phenomenon (definition, triggering factors, motion modes and modeling) and LiDAR technique in terms of data pre-processing, DTM generation and the factors that can be obtained from this technique for rockfall source identification and risk assessment. It also reviews the existing methods that are utilized for the evaluation of the rockfall trajectories and their characteristics (frequency, velocity, bouncing height and kinetic energy), probability, susceptibility, hazard and risk. Detail consideration is given on quantitative methodologies in addition to the qualitative ones. Various methods are demonstrated with respect to their application scales (local and regional). Additionally, attention is given to the latest improvement, particularly including the consideration of the intensity of the phenomena and the magnitude of the events at chosen sites.

Bayesian source tracking via focalization and marginalization in an uncertain Mediterranean Sea environment.

PubMed

Dosso, Stan E; Wilmut, Michael J; Nielsen, Peter L

2010-07-01

This paper applies Bayesian source tracking in an uncertain environment to Mediterranean Sea data, and investigates the resulting tracks and track uncertainties as a function of data information content (number of data time-segments, number of frequencies, and signal-to-noise ratio) and of prior information (environmental uncertainties and source-velocity constraints). To track low-level sources, acoustic data recorded for multiple time segments (corresponding to multiple source positions along the track) are inverted simultaneously. Environmental uncertainty is addressed by including unknown water-column and seabed properties as nuisance parameters in an augmented inversion. Two approaches are considered: Focalization-tracking maximizes the posterior probability density (PPD) over the unknown source and environmental parameters. Marginalization-tracking integrates the PPD over environmental parameters to obtain a sequence of joint marginal probability distributions over source coordinates, from which the most-probable track and track uncertainties can be extracted. Both approaches apply track constraints on the maximum allowable vertical and radial source velocity. The two approaches are applied for towed-source acoustic data recorded at a vertical line array at a shallow-water test site in the Mediterranean Sea where previous geoacoustic studies have been carried out.

Investigation of possibility of surface rupture derived from PFDHA and calculation of surface displacement based on dislocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.; Kitada, N.; Irikura, K.

2013-12-01

A probability of surface rupture is important to configure the seismic source, such as area sources or fault models, for a seismic hazard evaluation. In Japan, Takemura (1998) estimated the probability based on the historical earthquake data. Kagawa et al. (2004) evaluated the probability based on a numerical simulation of surface displacements. The estimated probability indicates a sigmoid curve and increases between Mj (the local magnitude defined and calculated by Japan Meteorological Agency) =6.5 and Mj=7.0. The probability of surface rupture is also used in a probabilistic fault displacement analysis (PFDHA). The probability is determined from the collected earthquake catalog, which were classified into two categories: with surface rupture or without surface rupture. The logistic regression is performed for the classified earthquake data. Youngs et al. (2003), Ross and Moss (2011) and Petersen et al. (2011) indicate the logistic curves of the probability of surface rupture by normal, reverse and strike-slip faults, respectively. Takao et al. (2013) shows the logistic curve derived from only Japanese earthquake data. The Japanese probability curve shows the sharply increasing in narrow magnitude range by comparison with other curves. In this study, we estimated the probability of surface rupture applying the logistic analysis to the surface displacement derived from a surface displacement calculation. A source fault was defined in according to the procedure of Kagawa et al. (2004), which determined a seismic moment from a magnitude and estimated the area size of the asperity and the amount of slip. Strike slip and reverse faults were considered as source faults. We applied Wang et al. (2003) for calculations. The surface displacements with defined source faults were calculated by varying the depth of the fault. A threshold value as 5cm of surface displacement was used to evaluate whether a surface rupture reach or do not reach to the surface. We carried out the logistic regression analysis to the calculated displacements, which were classified by the above threshold. The estimated probability curve indicated the similar trend to the result of Takao et al. (2013). The probability of revere faults is larger than that of strike slip faults. On the other hand, PFDHA results show different trends. The probability of reverse faults at higher magnitude is lower than that of strike slip and normal faults. Ross and Moss (2011) suggested that the sediment and/or rock over the fault compress and not reach the displacement to the surface enough. The numerical theory applied in this study cannot deal with a complex initial situation such as topography.

Study on lockage safety of LNG-fueled ships based on FSA.

PubMed

Lv, Pengfei; Zhuang, Yuan; Deng, Jian; Su, Wei

2017-01-01

In the present study, formal safety assessment (FSA) is introduced to investigate lockage safety of LNG-fueled ships. Risk sources during lockage of LNG-fueled ships in four typical scenarios, namely, navigation between two dams, lockage, anchorage, and fueling, are identified, and studied in combination with fundamental leakage probabilities of various components of LNG storage tanks, and simulation results of accident consequences. Some suggestions for lockage safety management of LNG-fueled ships are then proposed. The present research results have certain practical significance for promoting applications of LNG-fueled ships along Chuanjiang River and in Three Gorges Reservoir Region.

Association of airmass transport patterns and particulate sulfur concentrations at Big Bend National Park, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schichtel, Bret A.; Gebhart, Kristi A.; Barna, Michael G.; Malm, William C.

The Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) study was initiated to understand the causes of haze at Big Bend National Park. BRAVO included the measurement of aerosols throughout Texas from July to October 1999 and extensive modeling of these aerosols. In support of BRAVO, the potential contributions from source regions to particulate sulfur at Big Bend during the BRAVO period were examined via an airmass history analysis. This was done using residence time analysis and a new technique of decomposing the residence time probability density function into its basic components, an airmass transport directional frequency and inverse characteristic transport speed. Trajectory heights over potential source regions were also examined. The system was validated using inert perfluorocarbon tracers that were released from four Texas sites. Airmass transport to Big Bend was examined on days with high (>80th percentile), and days with low (<20th percentile), particulate sulfur. High particulate sulfur concentrations were associated with low-level and low-speed airmass transport from the eastern United States, eastern Texas, and northeastern Mexico. All three of these regions have high SO 2 emissions that could contribute to Big Bend's haze. Examination of individual trajectories showed that the highest particulate sulfur concentrations occurred when transport over several of these regions coincided. Low particulate sulfur concentrations coincided with low-level but high-speed airmass transport from the Gulf of Mexico and along the Mexico-Texas border. Precipitation often occurred along these trajectories. Low sulfur was also associated with transport from low SO 2 emission regions north and west of Big Bend. Days with high SO 2 or selenium concentrations were also examined. High SO 2 concentrations were associated with prior transport from nearby sources, particularly the Carbón power plants located in Mexico ˜230 km southeast of Big Bend. High selenium concentrations were associated with prior transport over Carbón and eastern Texas.

Evaluation of gas well setback policy in the Marcellus Shale region of Pennsylvania in relation to emissions of fine particulate matter.

PubMed

Banan, Zoya; Gernand, Jeremy M

2018-04-18

Shale gas has become an important strategic energy source with considerable potential economic benefits and the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in so far as it displaces coal use. However, there still exist environmental health risks caused by emissions from exploration and production activities. In the United States, states and localities have set different minimum setback policies to reduce the health risks corresponding to the emissions from these locations, but it is unclear whether these policies are sufficient. This study uses a Gaussian plume model to evaluate the probability of exposure exceedance from EPA concentration limits for PM2.5 at various locations around a generic wellsite in the Marcellus shale region. A set of meteorological data monitored at ten different stations across Marcellus shale gas region in Pennsylvania during 2015 serves as an input to this model. Results indicate that even though the current setback distance policy in Pennsylvania (500 ft. or 152.4 m) might be effective in some cases, exposure limit exceedance occurs frequently at this distance with higher than average emission rates and/or greater number of wells per wellpad. Setback distances should be 736 m to ensure compliance with the daily average concentration of PM2.5, and a function of the number of wells to comply with the annual average PM2.5 exposure standard. The Marcellus Shale gas is known as a significant source of criteria pollutants and studies show that the current setback distance in Pennsylvania is not adequate to protect the residents from exceeding the established limits. Even an effective setback distance to meet the annual exposure limit may not be adequate to meet the daily limit. The probability of exceeding the annual limit increases with number of wells per site. We use a probabilistic dispersion model to introduce a technical basis to select appropriate setback distances.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for northern Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Kosuwan, S.; Nguyen, M. L.; Shi, X.; Sieh, K.

2016-12-01

We assess seismic hazard for northern Southeast Asia through constructing an earthquake and fault database, conducting a series of ground-shaking scenarios and proposing regional seismic hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters from global and local seismic catalogues, including the ISC, ISC-GEM, the global ANSS Comprehensive Catalogues, Seismological Bureau, Thai Meteorological Department, Thailand, and Institute of Geophysics Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam. To harmonize the earthquake parameters from various catalogue sources, we remove duplicate events and unify magnitudes into the same scale. Our active fault database include active fault data from previous studies, e.g. the active fault parameters determined by Wang et al. (2014), Department of Mineral Resources, Thailand, and Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam. Based on the parameters from analysis of the databases (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, slip rate, maximum magnitude and time elapsed of last events), we determined the earthquake recurrence models of seismogenic sources. To evaluate the ground shaking behaviours in different tectonic regimes, we conducted a series of tests by matching the felt intensities of historical earthquakes to the modelled ground motions using ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). By incorporating the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions, we utilized site effect and assessed probabilistic seismic hazard. The highest seismic hazard is in the region close to the Sagaing Fault, which cuts through some major cities in central Myanmar. The northern segment of Sunda megathrust, which could potentially cause M8-class earthquake, brings significant hazard along the Western Coast of Myanmar and eastern Bangladesh. Besides, we conclude a notable hazard level in northern Vietnam and the boundary between Myanmar, Thailand and Laos, due to a series of strike-slip faults, which could potentially cause moderate-large earthquakes. Note that although much of the region has a low probability of damaging shaking, low-probability events have resulted in much destruction recently in SE Asia (e.g. 2008 Wenchuan, 2015 Sabah earthquakes).

Probabilistic Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from a Bayesian Approach in the Northwest Frontier of the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, R. B. S.; Tsapanos, T. M.; Bayrak, Yusuf; Koravos, G. Ch.

2013-03-01

A straightforward Bayesian statistic is applied in five broad seismogenic source zones of the northwest frontier of the Himalayas to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude M max, β value of G-R relationship and seismic activity rate or intensity λ). For this purpose, a reliable earthquake catalogue which is homogeneous for M W ≥ 5.0 and complete during the period 1900 to 2010 is compiled. The Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya zone has been further divided into two seismic zones of shallow ( h ≤ 70 km) and intermediate depth ( h > 70 km) according to the variation of seismicity with depth in the subduction zone. The estimated earthquake hazard parameters by Bayesian approach are more stable and reliable with low standard deviations than other approaches, but the technique is more time consuming. In this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % in all seismogenic source zones. The zones of estimated M max greater than 8.0 are related to the Sulaiman-Kirthar ranges, Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya and Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt; suggesting more seismically hazardous regions in the examined area. The lowest value of M max (6.44) has been calculated in Northern-Pakistan and Hazara syntaxis zone which have estimated lowest activity rate 0.0023 events/day as compared to other zones. The Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt exhibits higher earthquake magnitude (8.01) in next 100-years with 90 % probability level as compared to other zones, which reveals that this zone is more vulnerable to occurrence of a great earthquake. The obtained results in this study are directly useful for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the examined region of Himalaya.

Regional drivers of clutch loss reveal important trade-offs for beach-nesting birds

PubMed Central

Schlacher, Thomas A.; Weston, Michael A.; Huijbers, Chantal M.; Anderson, Chris; Gilby, Ben L.; Olds, Andrew D.; Connolly, Rod M.; Schoeman, David S.

2016-01-01

Coastal birds are critical ecosystem constituents on sandy shores, yet are threatened by depressed reproductive success resulting from direct and indirect anthropogenic and natural pressures. Few studies examine clutch fate across the wide range of environments experienced by birds; instead, most focus at the small site scale. We examine survival of model shorebird clutches as an index of true clutch survival at a regional scale (∼200 km), encompassing a variety of geomorphologies, predator communities, and human use regimes in southeast Queensland, Australia. Of the 132 model nests deployed and monitored with cameras, 45 (34%) survived the experimental exposure period. Thirty-five (27%) were lost to flooding, 32 (24%) were depredated, nine (7%) buried by sand, seven (5%) destroyed by people, three (2%) failed by unknown causes, and one (1%) was destroyed by a dog. Clutch fate differed substantially among regions, particularly with respect to losses from flooding and predation. ‘Topographic’ exposure was the main driver of mortality of nests placed close to the drift line near the base of dunes, which were lost to waves (particularly during storms) and to a lesser extent depredation. Predators determined the fate of clutches not lost to waves, with the depredation probability largely influenced by region. Depredation probability declined as nests were backed by higher dunes and were placed closer to vegetation. This study emphasizes the scale at which clutch fate and survival varies within a regional context, the prominence of corvids as egg predators, the significant role of flooding as a source of nest loss, and the multiple trade-offs faced by beach-nesting birds and those that manage them. PMID:27672510

Regional drivers of clutch loss reveal important trade-offs for beach-nesting birds.

PubMed

Maslo, Brooke; Schlacher, Thomas A; Weston, Michael A; Huijbers, Chantal M; Anderson, Chris; Gilby, Ben L; Olds, Andrew D; Connolly, Rod M; Schoeman, David S

2016-01-01

Coastal birds are critical ecosystem constituents on sandy shores, yet are threatened by depressed reproductive success resulting from direct and indirect anthropogenic and natural pressures. Few studies examine clutch fate across the wide range of environments experienced by birds; instead, most focus at the small site scale. We examine survival of model shorebird clutches as an index of true clutch survival at a regional scale (∼200 km), encompassing a variety of geomorphologies, predator communities, and human use regimes in southeast Queensland, Australia. Of the 132 model nests deployed and monitored with cameras, 45 (34%) survived the experimental exposure period. Thirty-five (27%) were lost to flooding, 32 (24%) were depredated, nine (7%) buried by sand, seven (5%) destroyed by people, three (2%) failed by unknown causes, and one (1%) was destroyed by a dog. Clutch fate differed substantially among regions, particularly with respect to losses from flooding and predation. 'Topographic' exposure was the main driver of mortality of nests placed close to the drift line near the base of dunes, which were lost to waves (particularly during storms) and to a lesser extent depredation. Predators determined the fate of clutches not lost to waves, with the depredation probability largely influenced by region. Depredation probability declined as nests were backed by higher dunes and were placed closer to vegetation. This study emphasizes the scale at which clutch fate and survival varies within a regional context, the prominence of corvids as egg predators, the significant role of flooding as a source of nest loss, and the multiple trade-offs faced by beach-nesting birds and those that manage them.

3D inversion and modeling of magnetic and gravimetric data characterizing the geophysical anomaly source in Pratinha I in the southeast of Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louro, Vinicius Hector Abud; Mantovani, Marta Silvia Maria

2012-05-01

The Alto do Paranaíba Igneous Province (APIP) is known for its great mineral exploratory interest in phosphates, niobium, titanium, and diamonds, among others. In the years of 2005 and 2006, the Economic Development Company of Minas Gerais (CODEMIG — http://www.comig.com.br/) performed an airborne magnetic survey over the portion of this igneous province which belongs to Minas Gerais state, denominated Area 7. This survey revealed at the coordinates (19°45'S, 46°10'W) a tripolar anomaly here referred as Pratinha I. This anomaly does not present evidences of outcropping or topographic remodeling. So, boreholes or studies over its sources make the geophysical methods the best and less expensive solution for studying the body in its subsurface. Besides, two gravimetric ground surveys were performed in 2009 and 2010, confirming the existence of a density contrast over the region of the magnetic anomaly. Therefore, through the magnetometry and gravimetry processing, 3D modeling and inversions, it was possible to estimate the geometry, density and magnetic susceptibility, which when analyzed with the regional geology, enabled the proposition of an igneous intrusion of probable alkaline or kamafugitic composition to justify the gravimetric and magnetic response in the region.

Groundwater Pollution Sources Apportionment in the Ghaen Plain, Iran.

PubMed

Vesali Naseh, Mohammad Reza; Noori, Roohollah; Berndtsson, Ronny; Adamowski, Jan; Sadatipour, Elaheh

2018-01-22

Although Iran's Ghaen Plain provides saffron to much of the world, no regional groundwater quality (GQ) assessment has yet been undertaken. Given the region's potential for saltwater intrusion and heavy metal contamination, it is important to assess the GQ and determine its main probable source of pollution (MPSP). Such knowledge would allow for informed mitigation or elimination of the potential adverse health effects of this groundwater through its use as drinking water, or indirectly as a result of the consumption of groundwater-irrigated crops. Total dissolved solids, sodium, and chloride in the water of the majority of 16 wells sampled within the region exceeded World Health Organization and Iranian permissible standards for drinking water. The groundwater proved to only be suitable for irrigating salt tolerant crops under good drainage conditions. Due to the precipitation of calcium carbonate in the water supply facilities, the water from all wells was deemed unsuitable for industrial purposes. Heavy metal pollution and contamination indices showed no groundwater contamination. Analysis of ionic ratios and the application of principal components analysis indicated the MPSP to be saltwater intrusion, with the geology subtending the plain, and to a lesser extent, anthropogenic activities. Reducing groundwater withdrawals, particularly those for agricultural production by using high performance irrigation methods could reduce saltwater intrusion and improve GQ in the Ghaen Plain.

Suspected adverse reactions to contrast media in Campania Region (Italy): results from 14 years of post-marketing surveillance.

PubMed

Sessa, Maurizio; Rossi, Claudia; Mascolo, Annamaria; Grassi, Enrico; Fiorentino, Sonia; Scavone, Cristina; Reginelli, Alfonso; Rotondo, Antonio; Sportiello, Liberata

2015-01-01

During the last years in Italy, contrast media (CM) use increased. An increase of monitoring activities on CM-induced adverse drug reaction (ADR) is necessary, also in our regional territory. The main aim of this study was to give a preliminary evaluation of all Spontaneous Reports of ADRs (SRA) attributed to CM sent to Campania Pharmacovigilance Regional Center (CRFVC) from 01 January 2001 to 31 October 2014. For each SRA we evaluated: frequency and source, ADRs onset (time to event, seriousness and outcome), socio-demographic characteristics and risk factors of cases, the most reported CM (checking for pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic interactions). A total of 111 SRA were sent to CRFVC; specialist in radiology was the main source of reports. Ninety-seven SRA (87.3%) were referable to hypersensitivity reactions. Thirty-four SRA (30.6%) reported serious ADRs. The most reported CM were iopamidol, gadobenic acid and gadoteric acid. We identified two SRA induced by pharmacokinetic and/or pharmacodynamic interactions. During 14 years of post-marketing surveillance, only few SRA concerning CM-induced ADRs were sent to CRFVC probably due to underreporting. We aim to improve monitoring activity on CM-induced ADRs especially in hospitals. Most reported ADR and CM were in line with current body of literature.

Nustar and Chandra Insight into the Nature of the 3-40 Kev Nuclear Emission in Ngc 253

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lehmer, Bret D.; Wik, Daniel R.; Hornschemeier, Ann E.; Ptak, Andrew; Antoniu, V.; Argo, M.K.; Bechtol, K.; Boggs, S.; Christensen, F.E.; Craig, W.W.;

Geochemistry of Aerosols in North -West India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, S.

2001-12-01

The geochemistry of, sources to, and transport of dust and their consequences on earth system processes are least understood. Here we follow Guru Gil's approach to use trace elements and isotopic data on aerosols in northwest India to understand their sources and processes. Aerosol samples were collected over a stretch of 550 kms from the Thar desert to the Delhi region which sits on the eastern fringe of the Thar. This region witnesses frequent dust storms in summer seasons due to high intensity south westerly and westerly winds. Major, trace elements including REE and Sr isotopic data are generated on three different group of aerosols such as dry deposition (DD, >100μm ), suspended particulate matter (SPM, 0.1-100μm ) and PM10 (<10μm ) collected by different sampling techniques and at different seasons. Major and trace elements in all DD samples show a high degree of homogeneity with similar LREE enriched patterns and -ve Eu anomalies regardless of space and time of sampling. These particles are geochemically similar to UCC, PAAS, and local loess with relatively low CIA values, indicating a low degree of chemical weathering suffered by their source regions dominated by upper crustal materials. Geochemistry of SPM and PM10 aerosols shows variation along the wind path. With decreasing size, crustal component decreases, anthropogenic inputs to transition metals and non-silicate input to Ca budget increase. The greater variability in finer fractions is primarily due to anthropogenic input and local meteorology where wind acts as an intensive variable. The REE patterns in SPM and PM10 are similar to DD samples with -ve Eu anomaly but their abundance decrease with size, probably due to some dilution effect by organics and mineralogical factors. It is possible that REE hosting minerals are concentrated in coarser silt and finest sand fractions (35-70μm ). This is supported by the decreasing Zr concentrations with decreasing size and distance in downwind direction where the wind velocity reduces. 87Sr/86Sr isotopic ratios of all the fractions also show a small size dependency. The coarser samples have higher values (0.719-0.720) compared to finer ones (0.715-0.717). These values are similar to the lower end of Indo-Gangetic alluvium ratios (J. Tripathy), perhaps resulting from the minor addition of Jurassic carbonate/gypsum, present in the upwind part. Thus, the source for the dominant component of aerosols is upper crustal and is likely to be older Himalayan alluvium deposited by now defunct rivers in the Rajasthan region. The removal of silty materials (a dominant part of aerosols) from the older alluvium is probably responsible for the presence of Thar desert in the upwind direction.

Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.

2004-01-01

New earthquake probability calculations are made for the Sea of Marmara region and the city of Istanbul, providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time-dependent interaction techniques. Calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara [Le Pichon et al., 2001; Armijo et al., 2002]. Newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional A.D. 1500-2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model, which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. Calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 August 1999 M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard. Probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on Marmara Sea fault-stressing rates, which are calculated with a new finite element model. The combined 2004-2034 regional Poisson probability of M≥7 earthquakes is ~38%, the regional time-dependent probability is 44 ± 18%, and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 ± 18%. The most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a M ??? 7 earthquake affecting Istanbul. The 30 year Poisson probability at Istanbul is 21%, and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 ± 14%. The ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by Monte Carlo analysis; 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions. Sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer, reflecting a poor understanding of large-earthquake aperiodicity.

Maximum likelihood density modification by pattern recognition of structural motifs

DOEpatents

Terwilliger, Thomas C.

2004-04-13

An electron density for a crystallographic structure having protein regions and solvent regions is improved by maximizing the log likelihood of a set of structures factors {F.sub.h } using a local log-likelihood function: (x)+p(.rho.(x).vertline.SOLV)p.sub.SOLV (x)+p(.rho.(x).vertline.H)p.sub.H (x)], where p.sub.PROT (x) is the probability that x is in the protein region, p(.rho.(x).vertline.PROT) is the conditional probability for .rho.(x) given that x is in the protein region, and p.sub.SOLV (x) and p(.rho.(x).vertline.SOLV) are the corresponding quantities for the solvent region, p.sub.H (x) refers to the probability that there is a structural motif at a known location, with a known orientation, in the vicinity of the point x; and p(.rho.(x).vertline.H) is the probability distribution for electron density at this point given that the structural motif actually is present. One appropriate structural motif is a helical structure within the crystallographic structure.

Relative Source Locations of Continuous Tremor Before and After the Subplinian Events at Shinmoe-dake, in 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichihara, M.; Matsumoto, S.

2017-11-01

Volcano monitoring systems are not always ready to resolve signals at the onset of eruptive activity. This study makes use of stations installed later to calibrate the performance of the stations that had been operated before the eruption. Seven stations recorded continuous volcanic tremor before and during the subplinian eruptions of Shinmoe-dake, Japan, in 2011. We estimated the source locations of the tremor using the amplitude distribution. The stability of the analysis was obtained by careful selection of time windows in which signals from a single source are dominated. The site effects and the regional attenuation factor were evaluated using tremor recorded after the major eruptions by a dense seismic array and a good number of stations. A tremor source changed its depth beneath the crater for 1 week before the major eruption, rising from a depth of a few kilometer to the water layer 3 times, each of which occurred following shallow inflation and minor eruptions. It is interpreted as migration of gas probably with magma, which further transported heat to the water layer and triggered the subplinian eruptions.

Last Glacial loess in the conterminous USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bettis, E. Arthur; Muhs, Daniel R.; Roberts, Helen M.; Wintle, Ann G.

2003-01-01

The conterminous United States contains an extensive and generally well-studied record of Last Glacial loess. The loess occurs in diverse physiographic provinces, and under a wide range of climatic and ecological conditions. Both glacial and non-glacia lloess sources are present, and many properties of the loess vary systematically with distance from loess sources. United States' mid-continent Last Glacial loess is probably the thickest in the world, and our calculated mass accumulation rates (MARs) are as high as 17,500 g/m2/yr at the Bignell Hill locality in Nebraska, and many near-source localities have MARs greater than 1500 g/m2/yr. These MARs are high relative to rates calculated in other loess provinces around the world. Recent models of LastGlacial dust sources fail to predict the extent and magnitude of dust flux from the mid-continent of the United States. A better understanding of linkages between climate, ice sheet behaviour, routing of glacial meltwater, land surface processes beyond the ice margin, and vegetation is needed to improve the predictive capabilities of models simulating dust flux from this region.

Upper mantle anisotropy from long-period P polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulte-Pelkum, Vera; Masters, Guy; Shearer, Peter M.

2001-10-01

We introduce a method to infer upper mantle azimuthal anisotropy from the polarization, i.e., the direction of particle motion, of teleseismic long-period P onsets. The horizontal polarization of the initial P particle motion can deviate by >10° from the great circle azimuth from station to source despite a high degree of linearity of motion. Recent global isotropic three-dimensional mantle models predict effects that are an order of magnitude smaller than our observations. Stations within regional distances of each other show consistent azimuthal deviation patterns, while the deviations seem to be independent of source depth and near-source structure. We demonstrate that despite this receiver-side spatial coherence, our polarization data cannot be fit by a large-scale joint inversion for whole mantle structure. However, they can be reproduced by azimuthal anisotropy in the upper mantle and crust. Modeling with an anisotropic reflectivity code provides bounds on the magnitude and depth range of the anisotropy manifested in our data. Our method senses anisotropy within one wavelength (250 km) under the receiver. We compare our inferred fast directions of anisotropy to those obtained from Pn travel times and SKS splitting. The results of the comparison are consistent with azimuthal anisotropy situated in the uppermost mantle, with SKS results deviating from Pn and Ppol in some regions with probable additional deeper anisotropy. Generally, our fast directions are consistent with anisotropic alignment due to lithospheric deformation in tectonically active regions and to absolute plate motion in shield areas. Our data provide valuable additional constraints in regions where discrepancies between results from different methods exist since the effect we observe is local rather than cumulative as in the case of travel time anisotropy and shear wave splitting. Additionally, our measurements allow us to identify stations with incorrectly oriented horizontal components.

Interactive Soil Dust Aerosol Model in the GISS GCM. Part 1; Sensitivity of the Soil Dust Cycle to Radiative Properties of Soil Dust Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlwitz, Jan; Tegen, Ina; Miller, Ron L.

2000-01-01

The sensitivity of the soil dust aerosol cycle to the radiative forcing by soil dust aerosols is studied. Four experiments with the NASA/GISS atmospheric general circulation model, which includes a soil dust aerosol model, are compared, all using a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature as lower boundary condition. In one experiment, dust is included as dynamic tracer only (without interacting with radiation), whereas dust interacts with radiation in the other simulations. Although the single scattering albedo of dust particles is prescribed to be globally uniform in the experiments with radiatively active dust, a different single scattering albedo is used in those experiments to estimate whether regional variations in dust optical properties, corresponding to variations in mineralogical composition among different source regions, are important for the soil dust cycle and the climate state. On a global scale, the radiative forcing by dust generally causes a reduction in the atmospheric dust load corresponding to a decreased dust source flux. That is, there is a negative feedback in the climate system due to the radiative effect of dust. The dust source flux and its changes were analyzed in more detail for the main dust source regions. This analysis shows that the reduction varies both with the season and with the single scattering albedo of the dust particles. By examining the correlation with the surface wind, it was found that the dust emission from the Saharan/Sahelian source region and from the Arabian peninsula, along with the sensitivity of the emission to the single scattering albedo of dust particles, are related to large scale circulation patterns, in particular to the trade winds during Northern Hemisphere winter and to the Indian monsoon circulation during summer. In the other regions, such relations to the large scale circulation were not found. There, the dependence of dust deflation to radiative forcing by dust particles is probably dominated by physical processes with short time scales. The experiments show that dust radiative forcing can lead to significant changes both in the soil dust cycle and in the climate state. To estimate dust concentration and radiative forcing by dust more accurately, dust size distributions and dust single scattering albedo in the model should be a function of the source region, because dust concentration and climate response to dust radiative forcing are sensitive to dust radiative parameters.

A search for pre-main-sequence stars in high-latitude molecular clouds. 3: A survey of the Einstein database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caillault, Jean-Pierre; Magnani, Loris; Fryer, Chris

1995-01-01

In order to discern whether the high-latitude molecular clouds are regions of ongoing star formation, we have used X-ray emission as a tracer of youthful stars. The entire Einstein database yields 18 images which overlap 10 of the clouds mapped partially or completely in the CO (1-0) transition, providing a total of approximately 6 deg squared of overlap. Five previously unidentified X-ray sources were detected: one has an optical counterpart which is a pre-main-sequence (PMS) star, and two have normal main-sequence stellar counterparts, while the other two are probably extragalactic sources. The PMS star is located in a high Galactic latitude Lynds dark cloud, so this result is not too suprising. The translucent clouds, though, have yet to reveal any evidence of star formation.

Rare earth patterns in shergottite phosphates and residues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laul, J. C.

1987-01-01

Leaching experiments with 1M HCl on ALHA 77005 powder show that rare earth elements (REE) are concentrated in accessory phosphate phases (whitlockite, apatite) that govern the REE patterns of bulk shergottites. The REE patterns of whitlockite are typically light REE-depleted with a negative Eu anomaly and show a hump at the heavy REE side, while the REE pattern of apatite (in Shergotty) is light REE-enriched. Parent magmas are calculated from the modal compositions of residues of ALHA 77005, Shergotty, and EETA 79001. The parent magmas lack a Eu anomaly, indicating that plagioclase was a late-stage crystallizing phase and that it probably crystallized before the phosphates. The parent magmas of ALHA 77005 and Shergotty have similar REE patterns, with a subchondritic Nd/Sm ratio. However, the Sm/Nd isotopoics require a light REE-depleted source for ALHA 77005 (if the crystallization age is less than 600 Myr) and a light REE-enriched source for Shergotty. Distant Nd and Sr isotopic signatures may suggest different source regions for shergottites.

Long-range transport of pollutants to the Falkland Islands and Antarctica: evidence from lake sediment fly ash particle records.

PubMed

Rose, Neil L; Jones, Vivienne J; Noon, Philippa E; Hodgson, Dominic A; Flower, Roger J; Appleby, Peter G

2012-09-18

(210)Pb-dated sediment cores taken from lakes on the Falkland Islands, the South Orkney Islands, and the Larsemann Hills in Antarctica were analyzed for fly ash particles to assess the temporal record of contamination from high temperature fossil-fuel combustion sources. Very low, but detectable, levels were observed in the Antarctic lakes. In the Falkland Island lakes, the record of fly ash extended back to the late-19th century and the scale of contamination was considerably higher. These data, in combination with meteorological, modeling, and fossil-fuel consumption data, indicate most likely sources are in South America, probably Chile and Brazil. Other southern hemisphere sources, notably from Australia, contribute to a background contamination and were more important historically. Comparing southern polar data with the equivalent from the northern hemisphere emphasizes the difference in contamination of the two circumpolar regions, with the Falkland Island sites only having a level of contamination similar to that of northern Svalbard.

[The origin and quality of water for human consumption: the health of the population residing in the Matanza-Riachuelo river basin area in Greater Buenos Aires].

PubMed

Monteverde, Malena; Cipponeri, Marcos; Angelaccio, Carlos; Gianuzzi, Leda

2013-04-01

The aim of this study is to analyze the origin and quality of water used for consumption in a sample of households in Matanza-Riachuelo river basin area in Greater Buenos Aires, Argentina. The results of drinking water by source indicated that 9% of water samples from the public water system, 45% of bottled water samples and 80% of well water samples were not safe for drinking due to excess content of coliforms, Escherichia coli or nitrates. Individuals living in households where well water is the main source of drinking water have a 55% higher chance of suffering a water-borne disease; in the cases of diarrheas, the probability is 87% higher and in the case of dermatitis, 160% higher. The water for human consumption in this region should be provided by centralized sources that assure control over the quality of the water.

Malagasy Genetic Ancestry Comes from an Historical Malay Trading Post in Southeast Borneo

PubMed Central

Brucato, Nicolas; Kusuma, Pradiptajati; Cox, Murray P.; Pierron, Denis; Purnomo, Gludhug A.; Adelaar, Alexander; Kivisild, Toomas; Letellier, Thierry; Sudoyo, Herawati; Ricaut, François-Xavier

2016-01-01

Malagasy genetic diversity results from an exceptional protoglobalization process that took place over a thousand years ago across the Indian Ocean. Previous efforts to locate the Asian origin of Malagasy highlighted Borneo broadly as a potential source, but so far no firm source populations were identified. Here, we have generated genome-wide data from two Southeast Borneo populations, the Banjar and the Ngaju, together with published data from populations across the Indian Ocean region. We find strong support for an origin of the Asian ancestry of Malagasy among the Banjar. This group emerged from the long-standing presence of a Malay Empire trading post in Southeast Borneo, which favored admixture between the Malay and an autochthonous Borneo group, the Ma’anyan. Reconciling genetic, historical, and linguistic data, we show that the Banjar, in Malay-led voyages, were the most probable Asian source among the analyzed groups in the founding of the Malagasy gene pool. PMID:27381999

Extrapolating regional probability of drying of headwater streams using discrete observations and gauging networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaufort, Aurélien; Lamouroux, Nicolas; Pella, Hervé; Datry, Thibault; Sauquet, Eric

2018-05-01

Headwater streams represent a substantial proportion of river systems and many of them have intermittent flows due to their upstream position in the network. These intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams have recently seen a marked increase in interest, especially to assess the impact of drying on aquatic ecosystems. The objective of this paper is to quantify how discrete (in space and time) field observations of flow intermittence help to extrapolate over time the daily probability of drying (defined at the regional scale). Two empirical models based on linear or logistic regressions have been developed to predict the daily probability of intermittence at the regional scale across France. Explanatory variables were derived from available daily discharge and groundwater-level data of a dense gauging/piezometer network, and models were calibrated using discrete series of field observations of flow intermittence. The robustness of the models was tested using an independent, dense regional dataset of intermittence observations and observations of the year 2017 excluded from the calibration. The resulting models were used to extrapolate the daily regional probability of drying in France: (i) over the period 2011-2017 to identify the regions most affected by flow intermittence; (ii) over the period 1989-2017, using a reduced input dataset, to analyse temporal variability of flow intermittence at the national level. The two empirical regression models performed equally well between 2011 and 2017. The accuracy of predictions depended on the number of continuous gauging/piezometer stations and intermittence observations available to calibrate the regressions. Regions with the highest performance were located in sedimentary plains, where the monitoring network was dense and where the regional probability of drying was the highest. Conversely, the worst performances were obtained in mountainous regions. Finally, temporal projections (1989-2016) suggested the highest probabilities of intermittence (> 35 %) in 1989-1991, 2003 and 2005. A high density of intermittence observations improved the information provided by gauging stations and piezometers to extrapolate the temporal variability of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams.

Identifying the most hazardous synoptic meteorological conditions for Winter UK PM10 exceedences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webber, Chris; Dacre, Helen; Collins, Bill; Masato, Giacomo

2016-04-01

Summary We investigate the relationship between synoptic scale meteorological variability and local scale pollution concentrations within the UK. Synoptic conditions representative of atmospheric blocking highlighted significant increases in UK PM10 concentration ([PM10]), with the probability of exceeding harmful [PM10] limits also increased. Once relationships had been diagnosed, The Met Office Unified Model (UM) was used to replicate these relationships, using idealised source regions of PM10. This helped to determine the PM10 source regions most influential throughout UK PM10 exceedance events and to test whether the model was capable of capturing the relationships between UK PM10 and atmospheric blocking. Finally, a time slice simulation for 2050-2060 helped to answer the question whether PM10 exceedance events are more likely to occur within a changing climate. Introduction Atmospheric blocking events are well understood to lead to conditions, conducive to pollution events within the UK. Literature shows that synoptic conditions with the ability to deflect the Northwest Atlantic storm track from the UK, often lead to the highest UK pollution concentrations. Rossby wave breaking (RWB) has been identified as a mechanism, which results in atmospheric blocking and its relationship with UK [PM10] is explored using metrics designed in Masato, et al., 2013. Climate simulations facilitated by the Met Office UM, enable these relationships between RWB and PM10 to be found within the model. Subsequently the frequency of events that lead to hazardous PM10 concentrations ([PM10]) in a future climate, can be determined, within a climate simulation. An understanding of the impact, meteorology has on UK [PM10] within a changing climate, will help inform policy makers, regarding the importance of limiting PM10 emissions, ensuring safe air quality in the future. Methodology and Results Three Blocking metrics were used to subset RWB into four categories. These RWB categories were all shown to increase UK [PM10] and to increase the probability of exceeding a UK [PM10] threshold, when they occurred within constrained regions. Further analysis highlighted that Omega Block events lead to the greatest probability of exceeding hazardous UK [PM10] limits. These events facilitated the advection of European PM10, while also providing stagnant conditions over the UK, facilitating PM10 accumulation. The Met Office UM was used and nudged to ERA-Interim Reanalysis wind and temperature fields, to replicate the relationships found using observed UK [PM10]. Inert tracers were implemented into the model to replicate UK PM10 source regions throughout Europe. The modelled tracers were seen to correlate well with observed [PM10] and Figure 1 highlights the correlations between a RWB metric and observed (a) and modelled (b) [PM10]. A further free running model simulation highlighted the deficiency of the Met Office UM in capturing RWB frequency, with a reduction over the Northwest Atlantic/ European region. A final time slice simulation was undertaken for the period 2050-2060, using Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which attempted to determine the change in frequency of UK PM10 exceedance events, due to changing meteorology, in a future climate. Conclusions RWB has been shown to increase UK [PM10] and to lead to greater probabilities of exceeding a harmful [PM10] threshold. Omega block events have been determined the most hazardous RWB subset and this is due to a combination of European advection and UK stagnation. Simulations within the Met Office UM were undertaken and the relationships seen between observed UK [PM10] and RWB were replicated within the model, using inert tracers. Finally, time slice simulations were undertaken, determining the change in frequency of UK [PM10] exceedance events within a changing climate. References Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J., Woolings, T., 2013; Wave-breaking Characteristics of Northern Hemisphere Winter Blocking: A Two-Dimensional Approach. J. Climate, 26, 4535-4549.

The Shergottite Age Paradox and the Relative Probabilities of Ejecting Martian Meteorites of Differing Ages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borg, L. E.; Shih, C.-Y.; Nyquist, L. E.

1998-01-01

The apparent paradox that the majority of impacts yielding Martian meteorites appear to have taken place on only a few percent of the Martian surface can be resolved if all the shergottites were ejected in a single event rather than in multiple events as expected from variations in their cosmic ray exposure and crystallization ages. If the shergottite-ejection event is assigned to one of three craters in the vicinity of Olympus Mons that were previously identified as candidate source craters for the SNC (Shergottites, Nakhlites, Chassigny) meteorites, and the nakhlite event to another candidate crater in the vicinity of Ceraunius Tholus, the implied ages of the surrounding terranes agree well with crater density ages. EN,en for high cratering rates (minimum ages), the likely origin of the shergottites is in the Tharsis region, and the paradox of too many meteorites from too little terrane remains for multiple shergottite-ejection events. However, for high cratering rates it is possible to consider sources for the nakhlltes which are away from the Tharsis region. The meteorite-yielding impacts may have been widely dispersed with sources of the young SNC meteorites in the northern plains, and the source of the ancient orthopyroxenite, ALH84001, in the ancient southern uplands. Oblique-impact craters can be identified with the sources of the nakhlites and the orthopyroxenite,, respectively, in the nominal cratering rate model, and with the shergottites and orthopyroxenite, respectively, in the high cratering rate model. Thus, oblique impacts deserve renewed attention as an ejection mechanism for Martian meteorites.

Exploring the engines of molecular outflows. Radio continuum and H_2_O maser observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tofani, G.; Felli, M.; Taylor, G. B.; Hunter, T. R.

1995-09-01

We present A-configuration VLA observations of the 22GHz H_2_O maser line and 8.4GHz continuum emission of 22 selected CO bipolar outflows associated with water masers. These observations allow us to study the region within 10^4^AU of the engine powering the outflow. The positions of the maser spots are compared with those of ultra-compact (UC) continuum sources found in our observations, with IRAS data and with data from the literature on the molecular outflows. Weak unresolved continuum sources are found in several cases associated with the maser. Most probably they represent the ionized envelope surrounding the young stellar object (YSO) which powers the maser and the outflow. These weak radio continuum sources are not necessarily associated with the IRAS sources, which are more representative of the global emission from the star forming region. A comparison of the velocity pattern of the CO outflow with those of the maser spots detected with the VLA is also made. Asymmetries in the H_2_O velocities are found on opposite sides of the YSO, suggesting that the outflow acceleration begins from the YSO itself. In a few cases we find evidence for two outflows in different evolutionary stages. The H_2_O masers in these sources are always found at the centre of the younger outflow. The degree of variability of each maser is derived from single dish observations obtained with the Medicina radiotelescope before and after the VLA observations. Velocity drifts of some features are interpreted as acceleration of the maser.

A framework for fast probabilistic centroid-moment-tensor determination—inversion of regional static displacement measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Käufl, Paul; Valentine, Andrew P.; O'Toole, Thomas B.; Trampert, Jeannot

2014-03-01

The determination of earthquake source parameters is an important task in seismology. For many applications, it is also valuable to understand the uncertainties associated with these determinations, and this is particularly true in the context of earthquake early warning (EEW) and hazard mitigation. In this paper, we develop a framework for probabilistic moment tensor point source inversions in near real time. Our methodology allows us to find an approximation to p(m|d), the conditional probability of source models (m) given observations (d). This is obtained by smoothly interpolating a set of random prior samples, using Mixture Density Networks (MDNs)-a class of neural networks which output the parameters of a Gaussian mixture model. By combining multiple networks as `committees', we are able to obtain a significant improvement in performance over that of a single MDN. Once a committee has been constructed, new observations can be inverted within milliseconds on a standard desktop computer. The method is therefore well suited for use in situations such as EEW, where inversions must be performed routinely and rapidly for a fixed station geometry. To demonstrate the method, we invert regional static GPS displacement data for the 2010 MW 7.2 El Mayor Cucapah earthquake in Baja California to obtain estimates of magnitude, centroid location and depth and focal mechanism. We investigate the extent to which we can constrain moment tensor point sources with static displacement observations under realistic conditions. Our inversion results agree well with published point source solutions for this event, once the uncertainty bounds of each are taken into account.

Modeling the probability of arsenic in groundwater in New England as a tool for exposure assessment.

PubMed

Ayotte, Joseph D; Nolan, Bernard T; Nuckols, John R; Cantor, Kenneth P; Robinson, Gilpin R; Baris, Dalsu; Hayes, Laura; Karagas, Margaret; Bress, William; Silverman, Debra T; Lubin, Jay H

2006-06-01

We developed a process-based model to predict the probability of arsenic exceeding 5 microg/L in drinking water wells in New England bedrock aquifers. The model is being used for exposure assessment in an epidemiologic study of bladder cancer. One important study hypothesis that may explain increased bladder cancer risk is elevated concentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water. In eastern New England, 20-30% of private wells exceed the arsenic drinking water standard of 10 micrograms per liter. Our predictive model significantly improves the understanding of factors associated with arsenic contamination in New England. Specific rock types, high arsenic concentrations in stream sediments, geochemical factors related to areas of Pleistocene marine inundation and proximity to intrusive granitic plutons, and hydrologic and landscape variables relating to groundwater residence time increase the probability of arsenic occurrence in groundwater. Previous studies suggest that arsenic in bedrock groundwater may be partly from past arsenical pesticide use. Variables representing historic agricultural inputs do not improve the model, indicating that this source does not significantly contribute to current arsenic concentrations. Due to the complexity of the fractured bedrock aquifers in the region, well depth and related variables also are not significant predictors.

A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yen-Shin; Weatherill, Graeme; Pagani, Marco; Cotton, Fabrice

2018-05-01

A key concept that is common to many assumptions inherent within seismic hazard assessment is that of tectonic similarity. This recognizes that certain regions of the globe may display similar geophysical characteristics, such as in the attenuation of seismic waves, the magnitude scaling properties of seismogenic sources or the seismic coupling of the lithosphere. Previous attempts at tectonic regionalization, particularly within a seismic hazard assessment context, have often been based on expert judgements; in most of these cases, the process for delineating tectonic regions is neither reproducible nor consistent from location to location. In this work, the regionalization process is implemented in a scheme that is reproducible, comprehensible from a geophysical rationale, and revisable when new relevant data are published. A spatial classification-scheme is developed based on fuzzy logic, enabling the quantification of concepts that are approximate rather than precise. Using the proposed methodology, we obtain a transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard applications as well as the subjective probabilities (e.g. degree of being active/degree of being cratonic) that indicate the degree to which a site belongs in a tectonic category.

Determination of the mass of globular cluster X-ray sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grindlay, J. E.; Hertz, P.; Steiner, J. E.; Murray, S. S.; Lightman, A. P.

1984-01-01

The precise positions of the luminous X-ray sources in eight globular clusters have been measured with the Einstein X-Ray Observatory. When combined with similarly precise measurements of the dynamical centers and core radii of the globular clusters, the distribution of the X-ray source mass is determined to be in the range 0.9-1.9 solar mass. The X-ray source positions and the detailed optical studies indicate that (1) the sources are probably all of similar mass, (2) the gravitational potentials in these high-central density clusters are relatively smooth and isothermal, and (3) the X-ray sources are compact binaries and are probably formed by tidal capture.

H i Absorption in the Steep-Spectrum Superluminal Quasar 3C 216.

PubMed

Pihlström; Vermeulen; Taylor; Conway

1999-11-01

The search for H i absorption in strong compact steep-spectrum sources is a natural way to probe the neutral gas contents in young radio sources. In turn, this may provide information about the evolution of powerful radio sources. The recently improved capabilities of the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope have made it possible to detect a 0.31% (19 mJy) deep neutral atomic hydrogen absorption line associated with the steep-spectrum superluminal quasar 3C 216. The redshift (z=0.67) of the source shifts the frequency of the 21 cm line down to the ultra-high-frequency (UHF) band (850 MHz). The exact location of the H i-absorbing gas remains to be determined by spectral line VLBI observations at 850 MHz. We cannot exclude that the gas might be extended on galactic scales, but we think it is more likely to be located in the central kiloparsec. Constraints from the lack of X-ray absorption probably rule out obscuration of the core region, and we argue that the most plausible site for the H i absorption is in the jet-cloud interaction observed in this source.

The 1895 Ljubljana earthquake: can the intensity data points discriminate which one of the nearby faults was the causative one?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiberi, Lara; Costa, Giovanni; Jamšek Rupnik, Petra; Cecić, Ina; Suhadolc, Peter

2018-05-01

The earthquake (Mw 6 from the SHEEC defined by the MDPs) that occurred in the central part of Slovenia on 14 April, 1895, affected a broad region, causing deaths, injuries, and destruction. This event was much studied but not fully explained; in particular, its causative source model is still debated. The aim of this work is to contribute to the identification of the seismogenic source of this destructive event, calculating peak ground velocity values through the use of different ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and computing a series of ground motion scenarios based on the result of an inversion work proposed by Jukić in 2009 and on various fault models in the surroundings of Ljubljana: Vič, Želimlje, Borovnica, Vodice, Ortnek, Mišjedolski, and Dobrepolje faults. The synthetic seismograms, at the basis of our computations, are calculated using the multi-modal summation technique and a kinematic approach for extended sources, with a maximum peak ground velocity value of 1 Hz. The qualitative and quantitative comparison of these simulations with the macroseismic intensity database allows us to discriminate between various sources and configurations. The quantitative validation of the seismic source is done using ad hoc ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs), expressly calculated for this study. This study allows us to identify the most probable causative source model of this event, contributing to the improvement of the seismotectonic knowledge of this region. The candidate fault that has the lowest values of average differences between observed and calculated intensities and chi-squared is a strike slip fault with a toward-north rupture as the Ortnek fault.

Ambient PM2.5-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Changhua County, central Taiwan: Seasonal variation, source apportionment and cancer risk assessment.

PubMed

Chen, Yu-Cheng; Chiang, Hung-Che; Hsu, Chin-Yu; Yang, Tzu-Ting; Lin, Tzu-Yu; Chen, Mu-Jean; Chen, Nai-Tzu; Wu, Yuh-Shen

2016-11-01

This study investigates PM 2.5 -bound PAHs for rural sites (Dacheng and Fangyuan) positioned close to heavy air-polluting industries in Changhua County, central Taiwan. A total of 113 PM 2.5 samples with 22 PAHs collected from 2014 to 2015 were analyzed, and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) and diagnostic ratios of PAHs were applied to quantify potential PAH sources. The influences of local and regional sources were also explored using the conditional probability function (CPF) and potential source contribution function (PSCF) with PMF-modeled results, respectively. Annual mean concentrations of total PAHs were 2.91 ± 1.34 and 3.04 ± 1.40 ng/m 3 for Dacheng and Fangyuan, respectively, and their corresponding BaP eq were measured at 0.534 ± 0.255 and 0.563 ± 0.273 ng/m 3 in concentration. Seasonal variations with higher PAHs found for the winter than for the spring and summer were observed for both sites. The lifetime excess cancer risk (ECR) from inhalation exposure to PAHs was recorded as 4.7 × 10 -5 overall. Potential sources of PM 2.5 -bound PAHs include unburned petroleum and traffic emissions (42%), steel industry and coal combustion (31%), and petroleum and oil burning (27%), and unburned petroleum and traffic emission could contribute the highest ECR (2.4 × 10 -5 ). The CPF results show that directional apportionment patterns were consistent with the actual locations of local PAH sources. The PSCF results indicate that mainly northeastern regions of China have contributed elevated PM 2.5 -bound PAHs from long-range transports. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Historical Perspective on Primary and Possible Secondary Sources of Atmospheric Carbon Tetrachloride

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Hanwant B.

2015-01-01

Atmospheric sources of Carbon Tetrachloride (CTC) have been controversial since its detection in the early 1970. Initial proposals were that it is globally uniformly distributed and its lack of current emissions and inferred lifetime indicated that it was likely of natural origin. Historical analysis of CTC use and emissions showed that atmospheric CTC was long-lived and mainly of man-made origin although small natural sources and sinks (e. g. oceans) could not be ruled out. This deduction was hard because a majority of emissions had occurred in early part of the 20th century when CTC was commonly used as a fumigant, a solvent, and a raw material for the manufacture of many chemicals. In the 1940's adverse health effects of exposure to CTC became evident and its emissions were greatly curtailed and substituted with C2Cl4 which was thought to be much safer. There were smog chamber studies that showed that C2Cl4, a widely used solvent during the late 20th century, could produce CTC with up to a 7% yield. Subsequently it was discovered that this chemistry probably required Cl atoms and since Cl atoms were not abundant in the atmosphere actual yields based on OH oxidation were probably closer to 0.1%. CTC was subsequently banned by the Montreal Protocol to prevent stratospheric ozone depletion and its preferred substitute C2Cl4 was also banned by EPA for reasons of potential carcinogenicity and toxicity. CTC since has been measured in many airborne NASA campaigns in which plumes have been sampled from a variety of regions which may still be emitting CTC. I will briefly discuss this historical perspective of CTC and show some recent data that may shed light on its current sources or lack there off.

Uncertainty quantification and propagation in a complex human-environment system driven by fire and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Reich, B. J.; Pacifici, K.

2013-12-01

Fire is an important disturbance process in many coupled natural-human systems. Changes in the frequency and severity of fires due to anthropogenic climate change could have significant costs to society and the plant and animal communities that are adapted to a particular fire regime Planning for these changes requires a robust model of the relationship between climate and fire that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty that are present when simulating ecological and climatological processes. Here we model how anthropogenic climate change could affect the wildfire regime for a region in the Southeast US whose natural ecosystems are dependent on frequent, low-intensity fires while humans are at risk from large catastrophic fires. We develop a modeling framework that incorporates three major sources of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty in the ecological drivers of expected monthly area burned, (2) uncertainty in the environmental drivers influencing the probability of an extreme fire event, and (3) structural uncertainty in different downscaled climate models. In addition we use two policy-relevant emission scenarios (climate stabilization and 'business-as-usual') to characterize the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas forcings. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate different sources of uncertainty including simulation of predictive errors and Stochastic Search Variable Selection. Our results suggest that although the mean process remains stationary, the probability of extreme fires declines through time, owing to the persistence of high atmospheric moisture content during the peak fire season that dampens the effect of increasing temperatures. Including multiple sources of uncertainty leads to wide prediction intervals, but is potentially more useful for decision-makers that will require adaptation strategies that are robust to rapid but uncertain climate and ecological change.

OPTICAL–INFRARED PROPERTIES OF FAINT 1.3 mm SOURCES DETECTED WITH ALMA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hatsukade, Bunyo; Yabe, Kiyoto; Ohta, Kouji

2015-09-10

We report optical-infrared (IR) properties of faint 1.3 mm sources (S{sub 1.3mm} = 0.2–1.0 mJy) detected with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) in the Subaru/XMM-Newton Deep Survey field. We searched for optical/IR counterparts of eight ALMA-detected sources (≥4.0σ, the sum of the probability of spurious source contamination is ∼1) in a K-band source catalog. Four ALMA sources have K-band counterpart candidates within a 0.″4 radius. Comparison between ALMA-detected and undetected K-band sources in the same observing fields shows that ALMA-detected sources tend to be brighter, more massive, and more actively forming stars. While many of the ALMA-identified submillimeter-bright galaxiesmore » (SMGs) in previous studies lie above the sequence of star-forming galaxies in the stellar mass–star formation rate plane, our ALMA sources are located in the sequence, suggesting that the ALMA-detected faint sources are more like “normal” star-forming galaxies rather than “classical” SMGs. We found a region where multiple ALMA sources and K-band sources reside in a narrow photometric redshift range (z ∼ 1.3–1.6) within a radius of 5″ (42 kpc if we assume z = 1.45). This is possibly a pre-merging system and we may be witnessing the early phase of formation of a massive elliptical galaxy.« less

Inference of emission rates from multiple sources using Bayesian probability theory.

PubMed

Yee, Eugene; Flesch, Thomas K

2010-03-01

The determination of atmospheric emission rates from multiple sources using inversion (regularized least-squares or best-fit technique) is known to be very susceptible to measurement and model errors in the problem, rendering the solution unusable. In this paper, a new perspective is offered for this problem: namely, it is argued that the problem should be addressed as one of inference rather than inversion. Towards this objective, Bayesian probability theory is used to estimate the emission rates from multiple sources. The posterior probability distribution for the emission rates is derived, accounting fully for the measurement errors in the concentration data and the model errors in the dispersion model used to interpret the data. The Bayesian inferential methodology for emission rate recovery is validated against real dispersion data, obtained from a field experiment involving various source-sensor geometries (scenarios) consisting of four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors. The recovery of discrete emission rates from three different scenarios obtained using Bayesian inference and singular value decomposition inversion are compared and contrasted.

Temperature, Oxygen, and Soot-Volume-Fraction Measurements in a Turbulent C 2H 4-Fueled Jet Flame

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kearney, Sean P.; Guildenbecher, Daniel Robert; Winters, Caroline

2015-09-01

We present a detailed set of measurements from a piloted, sooting, turbulent C 2 H 4 - fueled diffusion flame. Hybrid femtosecond/picosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) is used to monitor temperature and oxygen, while laser-induced incandescence (LII) is applied for imaging of the soot volume fraction in the challenging jet-flame environment at Reynolds number, Re = 20,000. Single-laser shot results are used to map the mean and rms statistics, as well as probability densities. LII data from the soot-growth region of the flame are used to benchmark the soot source term for one-dimensional turbulence (ODT) modeling of this turbulentmore » flame. The ODT code is then used to predict temperature and oxygen fluctuations higher in the soot oxidation region higher in the flame.« less

Bayesian multiple-source localization in an uncertain ocean environment.

PubMed

Dosso, Stan E; Wilmut, Michael J

2011-06-01

This paper considers simultaneous localization of multiple acoustic sources when properties of the ocean environment (water column and seabed) are poorly known. A Bayesian formulation is developed in which the environmental parameters, noise statistics, and locations and complex strengths (amplitudes and phases) of multiple sources are considered to be unknown random variables constrained by acoustic data and prior information. Two approaches are considered for estimating source parameters. Focalization maximizes the posterior probability density (PPD) over all parameters using adaptive hybrid optimization. Marginalization integrates the PPD using efficient Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods to produce joint marginal probability distributions for source ranges and depths, from which source locations are obtained. This approach also provides quantitative uncertainty analysis for all parameters, which can aid in understanding of the inverse problem and may be of practical interest (e.g., source-strength probability distributions). In both approaches, closed-form maximum-likelihood expressions for source strengths and noise variance at each frequency allow these parameters to be sampled implicitly, substantially reducing the dimensionality and difficulty of the inversion. Examples are presented of both approaches applied to single- and multi-frequency localization of multiple sources in an uncertain shallow-water environment, and a Monte Carlo performance evaluation study is carried out. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

Application of trajectory clustering and source attribution methods for investigating regional CO2 and CH4 concentrations at Germany's highest mountain site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giemsa, Esther; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Ries, Ludwig; Frank, Gabriele; Hachinger, Stephan; Meyer-Arnek, Julian

2017-04-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) represent the most important contributors to increased radiative forcing enhancing it together by contemporary 2.65 W/m2 on the global average (IPCC 2013). The unbroken increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) has been unequivocally attributed to human emissions mainly coming from fossil fuel burning and land-use changes, while the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems slightly attenuate this rise with seasonally varying strength. Short-term fluctuations in the GHG concentrations that superimpose the seasonal cycle and the climate change driven trend reflect the presence of regional sources and sinks. A perfect place for investigating the comprehensive influence of these regional emissions is provided by the Environmental Research Station Schneefernerhaus (47.42°N, 10.98°E, 2.650m a.s.l.) situated in the eastern Alps at the southern side of Zugspitze mountain. Located just 300m below the highest peak of the German Alps, the exposed site is one of the currently 30 global core sites of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) programme and thus provides ideal conditions to study source-receptor relationships for greenhouse gases. We propose a stepwise statistical methodology for examining the relationship between synoptic-scale atmospheric transport patterns and climate gas mole fractions to finally receive a characterization of the sampling site with regard to the key processes driving CO2 and CH4 concentration levels. The first step entails a reliable radon-based filtering approach to subdivide the detected air masses according to their regional or 'background' origin. Simultaneously, a large number of ten-day back-trajectories from Schneefernerhaus every two hours over the entire study period 2011 - 2015 is calculated with the Lagrangian transport and dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al. 2005) and subjected to cluster analysis. The weather- and emission strength-related (short-term) components of the regional CO2 and CH4 concentration time-series are assigned to the back-trajectory clusters. The significant differences in the greenhouse gases' distributions associated with each cluster are confirmed by the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test thereby delivering the prerequisites for further investigations, in particular by Potential Source Contribution Functions for the detection of probable locations of within-cluster emission sources. The advantages of this comprehensive approach are site-specificity (by considering trajectories arriving at Schneefernerhaus as well as a site-appropriate filter method) and concentration-specificity (each greenhouse gas has its own source regions) combined with granting the space and time scales related to the synoptic flow patterns in source attribution studies. This research received funding from the Bavarian State Ministry of the Environment and Consumer Protection.

Predicting redox-sensitive contaminant concentrations in groundwater using random forest classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Gronberg, Jo Ann; Juckem, Paul F.; Miller, Matthew P.; Austin, Brian P.

2017-08-01

Machine learning techniques were applied to a large (n > 10,000) compliance monitoring database to predict the occurrence of several redox-active constituents in groundwater across a large watershed. Specifically, random forest classification was used to determine the probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic in the Fox, Wolf, Peshtigo, and surrounding watersheds in northeastern Wisconsin. Random forest classification is well suited to describe the nonlinear relationships observed among several explanatory variables and the predicted probabilities of elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic. Maps of the probability of elevated nitrate, iron, and arsenic can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability and the vulnerability of streams to contaminants derived from groundwater. Processes responsible for elevated concentrations are elucidated using partial dependence plots. For example, an increase in the probability of elevated iron and arsenic occurred when well depths coincided with the glacial/bedrock interface, suggesting a bedrock source for these constituents. Furthermore, groundwater in contact with Ordovician bedrock has a higher likelihood of elevated iron concentrations, which supports the hypothesis that groundwater liberates iron from a sulfide-bearing secondary cement horizon of Ordovician age. Application of machine learning techniques to existing compliance monitoring data offers an opportunity to broadly assess aquifer and stream vulnerability at regional and national scales and to better understand geochemical processes responsible for observed conditions.

Predicting redox-sensitive contaminant concentrations in groundwater using random forest classification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Juckem, Paul F.; Miller, Matthew P.; Austin, Brian P.

2017-01-01

Machine learning techniques were applied to a large (n > 10,000) compliance monitoring database to predict the occurrence of several redox-active constituents in groundwater across a large watershed. Specifically, random forest classification was used to determine the probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic in the Fox, Wolf, Peshtigo, and surrounding watersheds in northeastern Wisconsin. Random forest classification is well suited to describe the nonlinear relationships observed among several explanatory variables and the predicted probabilities of elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic. Maps of the probability of elevated nitrate, iron, and arsenic can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability and the vulnerability of streams to contaminants derived from groundwater. Processes responsible for elevated concentrations are elucidated using partial dependence plots. For example, an increase in the probability of elevated iron and arsenic occurred when well depths coincided with the glacial/bedrock interface, suggesting a bedrock source for these constituents. Furthermore, groundwater in contact with Ordovician bedrock has a higher likelihood of elevated iron concentrations, which supports the hypothesis that groundwater liberates iron from a sulfide-bearing secondary cement horizon of Ordovician age. Application of machine learning techniques to existing compliance monitoring data offers an opportunity to broadly assess aquifer and stream vulnerability at regional and national scales and to better understand geochemical processes responsible for observed conditions.

Occurrence and implications of methyl tert-butyl ether and gasoline hydrocarbons in ground water and source water in the United States and in drinking water in 12 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, 1993-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moran, Michael J.; Zogorski, John S.; Squillace, Paul J.

2004-01-01

The occurrence and implications of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and gasoline hydrocarbons were examined in three surveys of water quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey?one national-scale survey of ground water, one national-scale survey of source water from ground water, and one regional-scale survey of drinking water from ground water. The overall detection frequency of MTBE in all three surveys was similar to the detection frequencies of some other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that have much longer production and use histories in the United States. The detection frequency of MTBE was higher in drinking water and lower in source water and ground water. However, when the data for ground water and source water were limited to the same geographic extent as drinking-water data, the detection frequencies of MTBE were comparable to the detection frequency of MTBE in drinking water. In all three surveys, the detection frequency of any gasoline hydrocarbon was less than the detection frequency of MTBE. No concentration of MTBE in source water exceeded the lower limit of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Drinking-Water Advisory of 20 ?g/L (micrograms per liter). One concentration of MTBE in ground water exceeded 20 ?g/L, and 0.9 percent of drinking-water samples exceeded 20 ?g/L. The overall detection frequency of MTBE relative to other widely used VOCs indicates that MTBE is an important concern with respect to ground-water management. The probability of detecting MTBE was strongly associated with population density, use of MTBE in gasoline, and recharge, and weakly associated with density of leaking underground storage tanks, soil permeability, and aquifer consolidation. Only concentrations of MTBE above 0.5 ?g/L were associated with dissolved oxygen. Ground water underlying areas with high population density, ground water underlying areas where MTBE is used as a gasoline oxygenate, and ground water underlying areas with high recharge has a greater probability of MTBE contamination. Ground water from public-supply wells and shallow ground water underlying urban land-use areas has a greater probability of MTBE contamination compared to ground water from domestic wells and ground water underlying rural land-use areas.

Triggered tremor sweet spots in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomberg, Joan; Prejean, Stephanie

2013-12-01

To better understand what controls fault slip along plate boundaries, we have exploited the abundance of seismic and geodetic data available from the richly varied tectonic environments composing Alaska. A search for tremor triggered by 11 large earthquakes throughout all of seismically monitored Alaska reveals two tremor "sweet spots"—regions where large-amplitude seismic waves repeatedly triggered tremor between 2006 and 2012. The two sweet spots locate in very different tectonic environments—one just trenchward and between the Aleutian islands of Unalaska and Akutan and the other in central mainland Alaska. The Unalaska/Akutan spot corroborates previous evidence that the region is ripe for tremor, perhaps because it is located where plate-interface frictional properties transition between stick-slip and stably sliding in both the dip direction and laterally. The mainland sweet spot coincides with a region of complex and uncertain plate interactions, and where no slow slip events or major crustal faults have been noted previously. Analyses showed that larger triggering wave amplitudes, and perhaps lower frequencies (< 0.03 Hz), may enhance the probability of triggering tremor. However, neither the maximum amplitude in the time domain or in a particular frequency band, nor the geometric relationship of the wavefield to the tremor source faults alone ensures a high probability of triggering. Triggered tremor at the two sweet spots also does not occur during slow slip events visually detectable in GPS data, although slow slip below the detection threshold may have facilitated tremor triggering.

Triggered tremor sweet spots in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan; Prejean, Stephanie

2013-01-01

To better understand what controls fault slip along plate boundaries, we have exploited the abundance of seismic and geodetic data available from the richly varied tectonic environments composing Alaska. A search for tremor triggered by 11 large earthquakes throughout all of seismically monitored Alaska reveals two tremor “sweet spots”—regions where large-amplitude seismic waves repeatedly triggered tremor between 2006 and 2012. The two sweet spots locate in very different tectonic environments—one just trenchward and between the Aleutian islands of Unalaska and Akutan and the other in central mainland Alaska. The Unalaska/Akutan spot corroborates previous evidence that the region is ripe for tremor, perhaps because it is located where plate-interface frictional properties transition between stick-slip and stably sliding in both the dip direction and laterally. The mainland sweet spot coincides with a region of complex and uncertain plate interactions, and where no slow slip events or major crustal faults have been noted previously. Analyses showed that larger triggering wave amplitudes, and perhaps lower frequencies (<~0.03 Hz), may enhance the probability of triggering tremor. However, neither the maximum amplitude in the time domain or in a particular frequency band, nor the geometric relationship of the wavefield to the tremor source faults alone ensures a high probability of triggering. Triggered tremor at the two sweet spots also does not occur during slow slip events visually detectable in GPS data, although slow slip below the detection threshold may have facilitated tremor triggering.

Mineralogies and source regions of near-Earth asteroids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunn, Tasha L.; Burbine, Thomas H.; Bottke, William F.; Clark, John P.

2013-01-01

Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) offer insight into a size range of objects that are not easily observed in the main asteroid belt. Previous studies on the diversity of the NEA population have relied primarily on modeling and statistical analysis to determine asteroid compositions. Olivine and pyroxene, the dominant minerals in most asteroids, have characteristic absorption features in the visible and near-infrared (VISNIR) wavelengths that can be used to determine their compositions and abundances. However, formulas previously used for deriving compositions do not work very well for ordinary chondrite assemblages. Because two-thirds of NEAs have ordinary chondrite-like spectral parameters, it is essential to determine accurate mineralogies. Here we determine the band area ratios and Band I centers of 72 NEAs with visible and near-infrared spectra and use new calibrations to derive the mineralogies 47 of these NEAs with ordinary chondrite-like spectral parameters. Our results indicate that the majority of NEAs have LL-chondrite mineralogies. This is consistent with results from previous studies but continues to be in conflict with the population of recovered ordinary chondrites, of which H chondrites are the most abundant. To look for potential correlations between asteroid size, composition, and source region, we use a dynamical model to determine the most probable source region of each NEA. Model results indicate that NEAs with LL chondrite mineralogies appear to be preferentially derived from the ν6 secular resonance. This supports the hypothesis that the Flora family, which lies near the ν6 resonance, is the source of the LL chondrites. With the exception of basaltic achondrites, NEAs with non-chondrite spectral parameters are slightly less likely to be derived from the ν6 resonance than NEAs with chondrite-like mineralogies. The population of NEAs with H, L, and LL chondrite mineralogies does not appear to be influenced by size, which would suggest that ordinary chondrites are not preferentially sourced from meter-sized objects due to Yarkovsky effect.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq Using Complete Earthquake Catalogue Files

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ameer, A. S.; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.; Alsinawi, S. A.

2005-05-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for Iraq. The earthquake catalogue used in the present study covers an area between latitude 29° 38.5° N and longitude 39° 50° E containing more than a thousand events for the period 1905 2000. The entire Iraq region has been divided into thirteen seismogenic sources based on their seismic characteristics, geological setting and tectonic framework. The completeness of the seismicity catalogue has been checked using the method proposed by Stepp (1972). The analysis of completeness shows that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below Ms=4.8 for all of Iraq and seismic source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8, while it varies for the other seismic zones. A statistical treatment of completeness of the data file was carried out in each of the magnitude classes. The Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) for the study area including all seismic source zones were established and the minimum magnitude of complete reporting (Mc) were then estimated. For the entire Iraq the Mc was estimated to be about Ms=4.0 while S11 shows the lowest Mc to be about Ms=3.5 and the highest Mc of about Ms=4.2 was observed for S4. The earthquake activity parameters (activity rate λ, b value, maximum regional magnitude mmax) as well as the mean return period (R) with a certain lower magnitude mmin ≥ m along with their probability of occurrence have been determined for all thirteen seismic source zones of Iraq. The maximum regional magnitude mmax was estimated as 7.87 ± 0.86 for entire Iraq. The return period for magnitude 6.0 is largest for source zone S3 which is estimated to be 705 years while the smallest value is estimated as 9.9 years for all of Iraq.

The Influence of Improper Sets of Information on Judgment: How Irrelevant Information Can Bias Judged Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dougherty, Michael R.; Sprenger, Amber

2006-01-01

This article introduces 2 new sources of bias in probability judgment, discrimination failure and inhibition failure, which are conceptualized as arising from an interaction between error prone memory processes and a support theory like comparison process. Both sources of bias stem from the influence of irrelevant information on participants'…

KINETICS OF LOW SOURCE REACTOR STARTUPS. PART II

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

hurwitz, H. Jr.; MacMillan, D.B.; Smith, J.H.

1962-06-01

A computational technique is described for computation of the probability distribution of power level for a low source reactor startup. The technique uses a mathematical model, for the time-dependent probability distribution of neutron and precursor concentration, having finite neutron lifetime, one group of delayed neutron precursors, and no spatial dependence. Results obtained by the technique are given. (auth)

Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aagaard, Brad T.; Blair, James Luke; Boatwright, John; Garcia, Susan H.; Harris, Ruth A.; Michael, Andrew J.; Schwartz, David P.; DiLeo, Jeanne S.; Jacques, Kate; Donlin, Carolyn

2016-06-13

Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.

Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, Andrew J.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

Interplanetary survival probability of Aspergillus terreus spores under simulated solar vacuum ultraviolet irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarantopoulou, E.; Gomoiu, I.; Kollia, Z.; Cefalas, A. C.

2011-01-01

This work is a part of ESA/EU SURE project aiming to quantify the survival probability of fungal spores in space under solar irradiation in the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) (110-180 nm) spectral region. The contribution and impact of VUV photons, vacuum, low temperature and their synergies on the survival probability of Aspergillus terreus spores is measured at simulated space conditions on Earth. To simulate the solar VUV irradiation, the spores are irradiated with a continuous discharge VUV hydrogen photon source and a molecular fluorine laser, at low and high photon intensities at 10 15 photon m -2 s -1 and 3.9×10 27 photons pulse -1 m -2 s -1, respectively. The survival probability of spores is independent from the intensity and the fluence of photons, within certain limits, in agreement with previous studies. The spores are shielded from a thin carbon layer, which is formed quickly on the external surface of the proteinaceous membrane at higher photon intensities at the start of the VUV irradiation. Extrapolating the results in space conditions, for an interplanetary direct transfer orbit from Mars to Earth, the spores will be irradiated with 3.3×10 21 solar VUV photons m -2. This photon fluence is equivalent to the irradiation of spores on Earth with 54 laser pulses with an experimental ˜92% survival probability, disregarding the contribution of space vacuum and low temperature, or to continuous solar VUV irradiation for 38 days in space near the Earth with an extrapolated ˜61% survival probability. The experimental results indicate that the damage of spores is mainly from the dehydration stress in vacuum. The high survival probability after 4 days in vacuum (˜34%) is due to the exudation of proteins on the external membrane, thus preventing further dehydration of spores. In addition, the survival probability is increasing to ˜54% at 10 K with 0.12 K/s cooling and heating rates.

Tsunamis from Tectonic Sources along Caribbean Plate Boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, A. M.; Chacon, S.; Zamora, N.; Audemard, F. A.; Dondin, F. J. Y.; Clouard, V.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.

2015-12-01

The Working Group 2 (WG2) of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS) in charge of Tsunami Hazards Assessment, has generated a list of tsunami sources for the Caribbean region. Simulating these worst-case, most credible scenarios would provide an estimate of the resulting effects on coastal areas within the Caribbean. In the past few years, several publications have addressed this issue resulting in a collection of potential tsunami sources and scenarios. These publications come from a wide variety of sources; from government agencies to academic institutions. Although these provide the scientific community with a list of sources and scenarios, it was the interest of the WG2 to evaluate what has been proposed and develop a comprehensive list of sources, therefore leaving aside proposed scenarios. The seismo-tectonics experts of the Caribbean within the WG2 members were tasked to evaluate comprehensively which published sources are credible, worst-cases, and consider other sources that have been omitted from available reports. Among these published sources are the GEM Faulted Earth Subduction Characterization Project, and the LANTEX/Caribe Wave annual exercise publications (2009-2015). Caribbean tectonic features capable of generating tsunamis from seismic dislocation are located along the Northeastern Caribbean, the Lesser Antilles Trench, and the Panamá and Southern Caribbean Deformed Belts. The proposed sources have been evaluated based on historical and instrumental seismicity as well as geological and geophysical studies. This paper presents the sources and their justification as most-probable tsunami sources based on the context of crustal deformation due to Caribbean plate interacting with neighboring North and South America plates. Simulations of these sources is part of a subsequent phase in which effects of these tectonically induced tsunamis are evaluated in the near-field, and wave history snapshots are used to estimate arrival times and coastal effects at other locations within the Caribbean basin. This study is part of a contribution of the WG2 of ICG/CARIBE-EWS to UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

Lead-isotopic, sulphur-isotopic, and trace-element studies of galena from the Silesian-Cracow Zn-Pb ores, polymetallic veins from the Gory Swietokrzyskie MTS, and the Myszkow porphyry copper deposit, Poland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Church, S.E.; Vaughn, R.B.; Gent, C.A.; Hopkins, R.T.

1996-01-01

Lead-isotopic data on galena samples collected from a paragenetically constrained suite of samples from the Silesian-Cracow ore district show no regional or paragenetically controlled lead-isotopic trends within the analytical reproducibility of the measurements. Furthermore, the new lead-isotopic data agree with previously reported lead-isotopic results (R. E. Zartman et al., 1979). Sulfur-isotopic analyses of ores from the Silesian-Cracow district as well as from vein ore from the Gory Swietokrzyskie Mts. and the Myszkow porphyry copper deposit, when coupled with trace-element data from the galena samples, clearly discriminate different hydrothermal ore-forming events. Lead-isotopic data from the Permian and Miocene evaporite deposits in Poland indicate that neither of these evaporite deposits were a source of metals for the Silesian-Cracow district ores. Furthermore, lead-isotopic data from these evaporite deposits and the shale residues from the Miocene halite samples indicate that the crustal evolution of lead in the central and western European platform in southern Poland followed normal crustal lead-isotopic growth, and that the isotopic composition of crustal lead had progressed beyond the lead-isotopic composition of lead in the Silesian-Cracow ores by Permian time. Thus, Mesozoic and Tertiary sedimentary flysch rocks can be eliminated as viable source rocks for the metals in the Silesian-Cracow Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) deposits. The uniformity of the isotopic composition of lead in the Silesian-Cracow ores, when coupled with the geologic evidence that mineralization must post-date Late Jurassic faulting (E. Gorecka, 1991), constrains the geochemical nature of the source region. The source of the metals is probably a well-mixed, multi-cycle molasse sequence of sedimentary rocks that contains little if any Precambrian metamorphic or granitic clasts (S. E. Church, R. B. Vaughn, 1992). If ore deposition was post Late Jurassic (about 150 m. y.) or later as indicated by the geologic evidence, the source rocks probably contained elevated concentrations of Zn and Pb (75-100 ppm), and relatively low concentrations of U and Th (2 and 8 ppm or less, respectively). The Carboniferous coal-bearing molasse rocks of the Upper Silesian Coal Basin are a prime candidate for such a source region. The presence of ammonia and acetate in the fluid inclusions (Viets et al., 1996a) also indicate that the Carboniferous coal-bearing molasse sequence in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin may have been a suitable pathway for the MVT ore fluids. The lead-isotopic homogeneity, when coupled with the sulfur-isotopic heterogeneity of the ores suggests that mixing of a single metal-bearing fluid with waters from separate aquifers containing variable sulfur-isotopic compositions in karsts in the Muschelkalk Formation of Middle Triassic age may have been responsible for the precipitation of the ores of the Silesian-Cracow district.

Seismic source and structure estimation in the western Mediterranean using a sparse broadband network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, Hong Kie; Song, Xi; Saikia, Chandan K.; Helmberger, Donald V.; Woods, Bradley B.

1999-01-01

We present a study of regional earthquakes in the western Mediterranean geared toward the development of methodologies and path calibrations for source characterization using regional broadband stations. The results of this study are useful for the monitoring and discrimination of seismic events under a comprehensive test ban treaty, as well as the routine analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard using a sparse array of stations. The area consists of several contrasting geological provinces with distinct seismic properties, which complicates the modeling of seismic wave propagation. We started by analyzing surface wave group velocities throughout the region and developed a preliminary model for each of the major geological provinces. We found variations of crustal thickness ranging from 45 km under the Atlas and Betic mountains and 37 km under the Saharan shield, to 20 km for the oceanic crust of the western Mediterranean Sea, which is consistent with earlier works. Throughout most of the region, the upper mantle velocities are low which is typical for tectonically active regions. The most complex areas in terms of wave propagation are the Betic Cordillera in southern Spain and its north African counterparts, the Rif and Tell Atlas mountains, as well as the Alboran Sea, between Spain and Morocco. The complexity of the wave propagation in these regions is probably due to the sharp velocity contrasts between the oceanic and continental regions as well as the the existence of deep sedimentary basins that have a very strong influence on the surface wave dispersion. We used this preliminary regionalized velocity model to correct the surface wave source spectra for propagation effects which we then inverted for source mechanism. We found that this method, which is in use in many parts of the world, works very well, provided that data from several stations are available. In order to study the events in the region using very few broadband stations or even a single station, we developed a hybrid inversion method which combines Pnl waveforms synthesized with the traditional body wave methods, with surface waves that are computed using normal modes. This procedure facilitates the inclusion of laterally varying structure in the Green's functions for the surface waves and allows us to determine source mechanisms for many of the larger earthquakes (M > 4) throughout the region with just one station. We compared our results with those available from other methods and found that they agree quite well. The epicentral depths that we have obtained from regional waveforms are consistent with observed teleseismic depth phases, as far as they are available. We also show that the particular upper mantle structure under the region causes the various Pn and Sn phases to be impulsive, which makes them a useful tool for depth determination as well. Thus we conclude that with proper calibration of the seismic structure in the region and high-quality broadband data, it is now possible to characterize and study events in this region, both with respect to mechanism and depth, with a limited distribution of regional broadband stations.

Face detection in color images using skin color, Laplacian of Gaussian, and Euler number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saligrama Sundara Raman, Shylaja; Kannanedhi Narasimha Sastry, Balasubramanya Murthy; Subramanyam, Natarajan; Senkutuvan, Ramya; Srikanth, Radhika; John, Nikita; Rao, Prateek

2010-02-01

In this a paper, a feature based approach to face detection has been proposed using an ensemble of algorithms. The method uses chrominance values and edge features to classify the image as skin and nonskin regions. The edge detector used for this purpose is Laplacian of Gaussian (LoG) which is found to be appropriate when images having multiple faces with noise in them. Eight connectivity analysis of these regions will segregate them as probable face or nonface. The procedure is made more robust by identifying local features within these skin regions which include number of holes, percentage of skin and the golden ratio. The method proposed has been tested on color face images of various races obtained from different sources and its performance is found to be encouraging as the color segmentation cleans up almost all the complex facial features. The result obtained has a calculated accuracy of 86.5% on a test set of 230 images.

Coordination and establishment of centralized facilities and services for the University of Alaska ERTS survey of the Alaskan environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belon, A. E. (Principal Investigator); Miller, J. M.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Scene 1072-21173 of the Anaktuvuk Pass region of the Brooks Range, Alaska, was studied from the point of view of a resource survey for purposes of land use planning as part of the effort to develop ERTS data processing and interpretation techniques. Other data sources and surface observations were utilized to produce a resource survey of a remote and undeveloped region of Alaska. Three vegetative types are apparent: moist tundra, low brush, and high brush. Watersheds are easily defined on the multispectral imagery. Features related indirectly to economic minerals are discernible from ERTS-1 imagery supported by ground truth data. These include mountains, outwash plains and alluvial deposits, drainage patterns, lineaments and probable bedding planes. This region falls within present land class categories which are not inconsistent with the imperatives of the resources. These land class categories include native village withdrawals, regional deficiency area, national interest study area for possible inclusion in a national system, public interest areas, utility corridor, and state land selection.

An integrated WRF/HYSPLIT modeling approach for the assessment of PM(2.5) source regions over the Mississippi Gulf Coast region.

PubMed

Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Dodla, Venkata Bhaskar Rao; Challa, Venkata Srinivas; Myles, Latoya; Pendergrass, William R; Vogel, Christoph A; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Tuluri, Francis; Baham, Julius M; Hughes, Robert L; Patrick, Chuck; Young, John H; Swanier, Shelton J; Hardy, Mark G

2012-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) is majorly formed by precursor gases, such as sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) and nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), which are emitted largely from intense industrial operations and transportation activities. PM(2.5) has been shown to affect respiratory health in humans. Evaluation of source regions and assessment of emission source contributions in the Gulf Coast region of the USA will be useful for the development of PM(2.5) regulatory and mitigation strategies. In the present study, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model driven by the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model is used to identify the emission source locations and transportation trends. Meteorological observations as well as PM(2.5) sulfate and nitric acid concentrations were collected at two sites during the Mississippi Coastal Atmospheric Dispersion Study, a summer 2009 field experiment along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Meteorological fields during the campaign were simulated using WRF with three nested domains of 36, 12, and 4 km horizontal resolutions and 43 vertical levels and validated with North American Mesoscale Analysis. The HYSPLIT model was integrated with meteorological fields derived from the WRF model to identify the source locations using backward trajectory analysis. The backward trajectories for a 24-h period were plotted at 1-h intervals starting from two observation locations to identify probable sources. The back trajectories distinctly indicated the sources to be in the direction between south and west, thus to have origin from local Mississippi, neighboring Louisiana state, and Gulf of Mexico. Out of the eight power plants located within the radius of 300 km of the two monitoring sites examined as sources, only Watson, Cajun, and Morrow power plants fall in the path of the derived back trajectories. Forward dispersions patterns computed using HYSPLIT were plotted from each of these source locations using the hourly mean emission concentrations as computed from past annual emission strength data to assess extent of their contribution. An assessment of the relative contributions from the eight sources reveal that only Cajun and Morrow power plants contribute to the observations at the Wiggins Airport to a certain extent while none of the eight power plants contribute to the observations at Harrison Central High School. As these observations represent a moderate event with daily average values of 5-8 μg m(-3) for sulfate and 1-3 μg m(-3) for HNO(3) with differences between the two spatially varied sites, the local sources may also be significant contributors for the observed values of PM(2.5).

Volatile organic compounds in Tijuana during the Cal-Mex 2010 campaign: Measurements and source apportionment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jun; Garzón, Jessica P.; Huertas, María E.; Zhang, Renyi; Levy, Misti; Ma, Yan; Huertas, José I.; Jardón, Ricardo T.; Ruíz, Luis G.; Tan, Haobo; Molina, Luisa T.

2013-05-01

As part of the Cal-Mex 2010 air quality study, a proton transfer reaction-mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) was deployed at the San Diego-Tijuana border area to measure volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from 15 May to 30 June 2010. The major VOCs identified during the study included oxygenated VOCs (e.g., methanol, acetaldehyde, acetone, and methyl ethyl ketone) and aromatics (e.g., benzene, toluene, C8- and C9-aromatics). Biogenic VOCs (e.g., isoprene) were scarce in this region because of the lack of vegetation in this arid area. Using an U.S. EPA positive matrix factorization model, VOCs together with other trace gases (NOx, NOz and SO2) observed in this border region were attributed to four types of sources, i.e., local industrial solvent usage (58% in ppbC), gasoline vehicle exhaust (19% in ppbC), diesel vehicle exhaust (14% in ppbC), and aged plume (9% in ppbC) due to regional background and/or long-range transport. Diesel vehicle emission contributed to 87% of SO2 and 75% of NOx, and aged plume contributed to 92% of NOz. An independent conditional probability function analysis of VOCs, wind direction, and wind speed indicated that the industrial source did not show a significant tendency with wind direction. Both gasoline and diesel engine emissions were associated with air masses passing through two busy cross-border ports. Aged plumes were strongly associated with NW wind, which likely brought in aged air masses from the populated San Diego area.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; Dewey, J.; Hartzell, S.; Mueller, C.; Harmsen, S.; Frankel, A.D.; Rukstales, K.

2004-01-01

The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditions. We developed or modified earthquake catalogs and declustered these catalogs to include only independent earthquakes. The resulting catalogs were used to define four source zones that characterize earthquakes in four tectonic environments: subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab earthquakes, strike-slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes. The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults and across zones were also determined from this modified catalog. In addition to the source zones, our seismic source model considers two major faults that are known historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatran subduction zone and the Sumatran transform fault. Several published studies were used to describe earthquakes along these faults during historical and pre-historical time, as well as to identify segmentation models of faults. Peak horizontal ground accelerations were calculated using ground motion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained from the crustal interplate environment, crustal intraplate environment, along the subduction zone interface, and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Most of these relations, however, have not been developed for large distances that are needed for calculating the hazard across the Malaysian peninsula, and none were developed for earthquake ground motions generated in an interplate tectonic environment that are propagated into an intraplate tectonic environment. For the interplate and intraplate crustal earthquakes, we have applied ground-motion prediction relations that are consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) strong motion data that we collected for distances beyond 200 km. For the subduction zone equations, we recognized that the published relationships at large distances were not consistent with global earthquake data that we collected and modified the relations to be compatible with the global subduction zone ground motions. In this analysis, we have used alternative source and attenuation models and weighted them to account for our uncertainty in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra or for the Malaysian peninsula. The resulting peak horizontal ground accelerations for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years range from over 100% g to about 10% g across Sumatra and generally less than 20% g across most of the Malaysian peninsula. The ground motions at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are typically about 60% of the ground motions derived for a hazard level at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest contributors to hazard are from the Sumatran faults.

The GISMO two-millimeter deep field in GOODS-N

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staguhn, Johannes G.; Kovács, Attila; Arendt, Richard G.

2014-07-20

We present deep continuum observations using the GISMO camera at a wavelength of 2 mm centered on the Hubble Deep Field in the GOODS-N field. These are the first deep field observations ever obtained at this wavelength. The 1σ sensitivity in the innermost ∼4' of the 7' diameter map is ∼135 μJy beam{sup –1}, a factor of three higher in flux/beam sensitivity than the deepest available SCUBA 850 μm observations, and almost a factor of four higher in flux/beam sensitivity than the combined MAMBO/AzTEC 1.2 mm observations of this region. Our source extraction algorithm identifies 12 sources directly, and anothermore » 3 through correlation with known sources at 1.2 mm and 850 μm. Five of the directly detected GISMO sources have counterparts in the MAMBO/AzTEC catalog, and four of those also have SCUBA counterparts. HDF850.1, one of the first blank-field detected submillimeter galaxies, is now detected at 2 mm. The median redshift of all sources with counterparts of known redshifts is z-tilde =2.91±0.94. Statistically, the detections are most likely real for five of the seven 2 mm sources without shorter wavelength counterparts, while the probability for none of them being real is negligible.« less

Taking potential probability function maps to the local scale and matching them with land use maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, Saryu; Sinha, Vinayak; Sinha, Baerbel

2013-04-01

Source-Receptor models have been developed using different methods. Residence-time weighted concentration back trajectory analysis and Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) are the two most popular techniques for identification of potential sources of a substance in a defined geographical area. Both techniques use back trajectories calculated using global models and assign values of probability/concentration to various locations in an area. These values represent the probability of threshold exceedances / the average concentration measured at the receptor in air masses with a certain residence time over a source area. Both techniques, however, have only been applied to regional and long-range transport phenomena due to inherent limitation with respect to both spatial accuracy and temporal resolution of the of back trajectory calculations. Employing the above mentioned concepts of residence time weighted concentration back-trajectory analysis and PSCF, we developed a source-receptor model capable of identifying local and regional sources of air pollutants like Particulate Matter (PM), NOx, SO2 and VOCs. We use 1 to 30 minute averages of concentration values and wind direction and speed from a single receptor site or from multiple receptor sites to trace the air mass back in time. The model code assumes all the atmospheric transport to be Lagrangian and linearly extrapolates air masses reaching the receptor location, backwards in time for a fixed number of steps. We restrict the model run to the lifetime of the chemical species under consideration. For long lived species the model run is limited to < 4 hrs as spatial uncertainty increases the longer an air mass is linearly extrapolated back in time. The final model output is a map, which can be compared with the local land use map to pinpoint sources of different chemical substances and estimate their source strength. Our model has flexible space- time grid extrapolation steps of 1-5 minutes and 1-5 km grid resolution. By making use of high temporal resolution data, our model can produce maps for different times of the day, thus accounting for temporal changes and activity profiles of different sources. The main advantage of our approach compared to geostationary numerical methods that interpolate measured concentration values of multiple measurement sites to produce maps (gridding) is that the maps produced are more accurate in terms of spatial identification of sources. The model was applied to isoprene and meteorological data recorded during clean post-monsoon season (1 October- 7 October, 2012) between 11 am and 4 pm at a receptor site in the North-West Indo-Gangetic Plains (IISER Mohali, 30.665° N, 76.729°E, 300 m asl), near the foothills of the Himalayan range. Considering the lifetime of isoprene, the model was run only 2 hours backward in time. The map shows highest residence time weighted concentration of isoprene (up to 3.5 ppbv) over agricultural land with high number of trees (>180 trees/gridsquare); moderate concentrations for agricultural lands with low tree density (1.5-2.5 ppbv for 250 μg/m3 for traffic hotspots in Chandigarh City are observed. Based on the validation against the land use maps, the model appears to do an excellent job in source apportionment and identifying emission hotspots. Acknowledgement: We thank the IISER Mohali Atmospheric Chemistry Facility for data and the Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD), India and IISER Mohali for funding the facility. Chinmoy Sarkar is acknowledged for technical support, Saryu Garg thanks the Max Planck-DST India Partner Group on Tropospheric OH reactivity and VOCs for funding the research.

Stochastic Geomorphology: A Framework for Creating General Principles on Erosion and Sedimentation in River Basins (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benda, L. E.

2009-12-01

Stochastic geomorphology refers to the interaction of the stochastic field of sediment supply with hierarchically branching river networks where erosion, sediment flux and sediment storage are described by their probability densities. There are a number of general principles (hypotheses) that stem from this conceptual and numerical framework that may inform the science of erosion and sedimentation in river basins. Rainstorms and other perturbations, characterized by probability distributions of event frequency and magnitude, stochastically drive sediment influx to channel networks. The frequency-magnitude distribution of sediment supply that is typically skewed reflects strong interactions among climate, topography, vegetation, and geotechnical controls that vary between regions; the distribution varies systematically with basin area and the spatial pattern of erosion sources. Probability densities of sediment flux and storage evolve from more to less skewed forms downstream in river networks due to the convolution of the population of sediment sources in a watershed that should vary with climate, network patterns, topography, spatial scale, and degree of erosion asynchrony. The sediment flux and storage distributions are also transformed downstream due to diffusion, storage, interference, and attrition. In stochastic systems, the characteristically pulsed sediment supply and transport can create translational or stationary-diffusive valley and channel depositional landforms, the geometries of which are governed by sediment flux-network interactions. Episodic releases of sediment to the network can also drive a system memory reflected in a Hurst Effect in sediment yields and thus in sedimentological records. Similarly, discreet events of punctuated erosion on hillslopes can lead to altered surface and subsurface properties of a population of erosion source areas that can echo through time and affect subsequent erosion and sediment flux rates. Spatial patterns of probability densities have implications for the frequency and magnitude of sediment transport and storage and thus for the formation of alluvial and colluvial landforms throughout watersheds. For instance, the combination and interference of probability densities of sediment flux at confluences creates patterns of riverine heterogeneity, including standing waves of sediment with associated age distributions of deposits that can vary from younger to older depending on network geometry and position. Although the watershed world of probability densities is rarified and typically confined to research endeavors, it has real world implications for the day-to-day work on hillslopes and in fluvial systems, including measuring erosion, sediment transport, mapping channel morphology and aquatic habitats, interpreting deposit stratigraphy, conducting channel restoration, and applying environmental regulations. A question for the geomorphology community is whether the stochastic framework is useful for advancing our understanding of erosion and sedimentation and whether it should stimulate research to further develop, refine and test these and other principles. For example, a changing climate should lead to shifts in probability densities of erosion, sediment flux, storage, and associated habitats and thus provide a useful index of climate change in earth science forecast models.

X-ray survey of the North-America and Pelican star-forming complex (NGC 7000/IC 5070)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damiani, Francesco; Pillitteri, Ignazio; Prisinzano, Loredana

2017-06-01

Aims: We present the first extensive X-ray study of the North-America and Pelican star-forming region (NGC 7000/IC 5070), with the aim of finding and characterizing the young population of this cloud. Methods: X-ray data from Chandra (four pointings) and XMM-Newton (seven pointings) were reduced and source detection algorithm applied to each image. We complement the X-ray data with optical and near-IR data from the IPHAS, UKIDSS, and 2MASS catalogs, and with other published optical and Spitzer IR data. More than 700 X-ray sources are detected, the majority of which have an optical or near-IR (NIR) counterpart. This allowed us to identify young stars in different stages of formation. Results: Less than 30% of X-ray sources are identified with a previously known young star. We argue that most X-ray sources with an optical or NIR counterpart, except perhaps for a few tens at near-zero reddening, are likely candidate members of the star-forming region, on the basis of both their optical and NIR magnitudes and colors, and of X-ray properties such as spectrum hardness or flux variations. They are characterized by a wide range of extinction, and sometimes near-IR excesses, both of which prevent derivation of accurate stellar parameters. The optical color-magnitude diagram suggests ages between 1-10 Myr. The X-ray members have a very complex spatial distribution with some degree of subclustering, qualitatively similar to that of previously known members. The detailed distribution of X-ray sources relative to the objects with IR excesses identified with Spitzer is sometimes suggestive of sequential star formation, especially near the "Gulf of Mexico" region, probably triggered by the O5 star which illuminates the whole region. We confirm that around the O5 star no enhancement in the young star density is found, in agreement with previous results. Thanks to the precision and depth of the IPHAS and UKIDSS data used, we also determine the local optical-IR reddening law, and compute an updated reddening map of the entire region. Full Tables 3-5 and reduced images (FITS files) are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/602/A115

Primary sources and secondary formation of organic aerosols in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Guo, Song; Hu, Min; Guo, Qingfeng; Zhang, Xin; Zheng, Mei; Zheng, Jun; Chang, Chih Chung; Schauer, James J; Zhang, Renyi

2012-09-18

Ambient aerosol samples were collected at an urban site and an upwind rural site of Beijing during the CAREBEIJING-2008 (Campaigns of Air quality REsearch in BEIJING and surrounding region) summer field campaign. Contributions of primary particles and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) were estimated by chemical mass balance (CMB) modeling and tracer-yield method. The apportioned primary and secondary sources explain 73.8% ± 9.7% and 79.6% ± 10.1% of the measured OC at the urban and rural sites, respectively. Secondary organic carbon (SOC) contributes to 32.5 ± 15.9% of the organic carbon (OC) at the urban site, with 17.4 ± 7.6% from toluene, 9.7 ± 5.4% from isoprene, 5.1 ± 2.0% from α-pinene, and 2.3 ± 1.7% from β-caryophyllene. At the rural site, the secondary sources are responsible for 38.4 ± 14.4% of the OC, with the contributions of 17.3 ± 6.9%, 13.9 ± 9.1%, 5.6 ± 1.9%, and 1.7 ± 1.0% from toluene, isoprene, α-pinene, and β-caryophyllene, respectively. Compared with other regions in the world, SOA in Beijing is less aged, but the concentrations are much higher; between the sites, SOA is more aged and affected by regional transport at the urban site. The high SOA loading in Beijing is probably attributed to the high regional SOC background (~2 μg m(-3)). The toluene SOC concentration is high and comparable at the two sites, implying that some anthropogenic components, at least toluene SOA, are widespread in Beijing and represents a major factor in affecting the regional air quality. The aerosol gaseous precursor concentrations and temperature correlate well with SOA, both affecting SOA formation. The significant SOA enhancement with increasing water uptake and acidification indicates that the aqueous-phase reactions are largely responsible SOA formation in Beijing.

Distribution patterns of mercury in Lakes and Rivers of northeastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennis, Ian F.; Clair, Thomas A.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Kamman, Neil; Chalmers, Ann T.; Shanley, Jamie; Norton, Stephen A.; Kahl, Steve

2005-01-01

We assembled 831 data points for total mercury (Hgt) and 277 overlapping points for methyl mercury (CH3Hg+) in surface waters from Massachussetts, USA to the Island of Newfoundland, Canada from State, Provincial, and Federal government databases. These geographically indexed values were used to determine: (a) if large-scale spatial distribution patterns existed and (b) whether there were significant relationships between the two main forms of aquatic Hg as well as with total organic carbon (TOC), a well know complexer of metals. We analyzed the catchments where samples were collected using a Geographical Information System (GIS) approach, calculating catchment sizes, mean slope, and mean wetness index. Our results show two main spatial distribution patterns. We detected loci of high Hgt values near urbanized regions of Boston MA and Portland ME. However, except for one unexplained exception, the highest Hgt and CH3Hg+ concentrations were located in regions far from obvious point sources. These correlated to topographically flat (and thus wet) areas that we relate to wetland abundances. We show that aquatic Hgt and CH3Hg+ concentrations are generally well correlated with TOC and with each other. Over the region, CH3Hg+ concentrations are typically approximately 15% of Hgt. There is an exception in the Boston region where CH3Hg+ is low compared to the high Hgt values. This is probably due to the proximity of point sources of inorganic Hg and a lack of wetlands. We also attempted to predict Hg concentrations in water with statistical models using catchment features as variables. We were only able to produce statistically significant predictive models in some parts of regions due to the lack of suitable digital information, and because data ranges in some regions were too narrow for meaningful regression analyses.

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-01-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-07-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

The difficulty of ultraviolet emssion from supernovae

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colgate, S. A.

1971-01-01

There are certain conceptual difficulties in the theory of the generation of ultraviolet radiation which is presumed for the creation of the optical fluorescence mechanism of supernova light emission and ionization of a nebula as large as the Gum nebula. Requirements concerning the energy distribution of the ultraviolet photons are: 1) The energy of the greater part of the photons must be sufficient to cause both helium fluorescence and hydrogen ionization. 2) If the photons are emitted in an approximate black body spectrum, the fraction of energy emitted in the optical must be no more than what is already observed. Ultraviolet black body emission depends primarily on the energy source. The probability that the wide mixture of elements present in the interstellar medium and supernova ejecta results in an emission localized in a limited region with less than 0.001 emission in the visible, for either ionization or fluorescence ultraviolet, is remote. Therefore transparent emission must be excluded as unlikely, and black body or at least quasi-black-body emission is more probable.

Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd Isotopic Studies of Antarctic Nakhlite MIL 03346

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, C.-Y.; Nyquist, L. E.; Reese, Y.

2006-01-01

Nakhlites are olivine-bearing clinopyroxenites with cumulate textures, and probably came from Mars [e.g., 1]. A total of seven nakhlites have been identified so far. Unlike other martian meteorites (e.g., shergottites), nakhlites have been only moderately shocked and their original igneous textures are still well-preserved. Also, these meteorites have similarly older crystallization ages of approx.1.3 Ga compared to shergottites with ages of approx.0.18-0.57 Ga [e.g., 2]. MIL 03346 is characterized by abundant (approx.20 vol %) glassy mesostasis, indicating that it cooled rapidly and probably formed near the top [3] or at the bottom [4] of the chilled margin of a thick intrusive body. The mesostasis quenched from the trapped intercumulus liquid may provide information on the parent magma compositions of the nakhlites. In this report, we present Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd isotopic data for MIL 03346, discuss correlation of its age with those of other nakhlites and the nature of their source regions in the Martian mantle.

The evolution of the moon and the terrestrial planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toksoez, M. N.; Johnston, D. H.

1974-01-01

The thermal evolutions of the Moon, Mars, Venus and Mercury are calculated theoretically starting from cosmochemical condensation models. An assortment of geological, geochemical and geophysical data are used to constrain both the present day temperatures and the thermal histories of the planets' interiors. Such data imply that the planets were heated during or shortly after formation and that all the terrestrial planets started their differentiations early in their history. The moon, smallest in size, is characterized as a differentiated body with a crust, a thick solid mantle and an interior region which may be partially molten. Mars, intermediate in size, is assumed to have differentiated an Fe-FeS core. Venus is characterized as a planet not unlike the earth in many respects. Core formation has occurred probably during the first billion years after the formation. Mercury, which probably has a large core, may have a 500 km thick solid lithosphere and a partially molten core if it is assumed that some heat sources exist in the core.

Characterization and evolution of the mitochondrial DNA control region in hornbills (Bucerotiformes).

PubMed

Delport, Wayne; Ferguson, J Willem H; Bloomer, Paulette

2002-06-01

We determined the mitochondrial DNA control region sequences of six Bucerotiformes. Hornbills have the typical avian gene order and their control region is similar to other avian control regions in that it is partitioned into three domains: two variable domains that flank a central conserved domain. Two characteristics of the hornbill control region sequence differ from that of other birds. First, domain I is AT rich as opposed to AC rich, and second, the control region is approximately 500 bp longer than that of other birds. Both these deviations from typical avian control region sequence are explainable on the basis of repeat motifs in domain I of the hornbill control region. The repeat motifs probably originated from a duplication of CSB-1 as has been determined in chicken, quail, and snowgoose. Furthermore, the hornbill repeat motifs probably arose before the divergence of hornbills from each other but after the divergence of hornbills from other avian taxa. The mitochondrial control region of hornbills is suitable for both phylogenetic and population studies, with domains I and II probably more suited to population and phylogenetic analyses, respectively.

International Aftershock Forecasting: Lessons from the Gorkha Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, A. J.; Blanpied, M. L.; Brady, S. R.; van der Elst, N.; Hardebeck, J.; Mayberry, G. C.; Page, M. T.; Smoczyk, G. M.; Wein, A. M.

2015-12-01

Following the M7.8 Gorhka, Nepal, earthquake of April 25, 2015 the USGS issued a series of aftershock forecasts. The initial impetus for these forecasts was a request from the USAID Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance to support their Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) which coordinated US Government disaster response, including search and rescue, with the Government of Nepal. Because of the possible utility of the forecasts to people in the region and other response teams, the USGS released these forecasts publicly through the USGS Earthquake Program web site. The initial forecast used the Reasenberg and Jones (Science, 1989) model with generic parameters developed for active deep continental regions based on the Garcia et al. (BSSA, 2012) tectonic regionalization. These were then updated to reflect a lower productivity and higher decay rate based on the observed aftershocks, although relying on teleseismic observations, with a high magnitude-of-completeness, limited the amount of data. After the 12 May M7.3 aftershock, the forecasts used an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model to better characterize the multiple sources of earthquake clustering. This model provided better estimates of aftershock uncertainty. These forecast messages were crafted based on lessons learned from the Christchurch earthquake along with input from the U.S. Embassy staff in Kathmandu. Challenges included how to balance simple messaging with forecasts over a variety of time periods (week, month, and year), whether to characterize probabilities with words such as those suggested by the IPCC (IPCC, 2010), how to word the messages in a way that would translate accurately into Nepali and not alarm the public, and how to present the probabilities of unlikely but possible large and potentially damaging aftershocks, such as the M7.3 event, which had an estimated probability of only 1-in-200 for the week in which it occurred.

High-resolution sampling and analysis of air particulate matter in the Pear River Delta region of Southern China: source apportionment and health risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, S.; Day, P. K.; Wang, X.

2017-12-01

Hazardous air pollutants, such as trace elements in particulate matters (PM), are known or highly suspected to cause detrimental effects on human health. To understand the sources and associated risks of PM to human health, hourly time-integrated major trace elements in size-segregated coarse (PM10-2.5) and fine (PM2.5) particulate matter were collected and examined in an industrial city of Foshan in the Pearl River Delta region, China. Receptor modeling of the dataset by positive matrix factorization (PMF) was used to identify six sources contributing to PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations at the site. Dominant sources included industrial coal combustion, secondary inorganic aerosol, motor vehicles and construction dust along with two intermittent sources, biomass combustion and marine aerosol. The biomass combustion source was found to be a significant contributor to peak PM2.5 episodes along with motor vehicles and industrial coal combustion. Conditional probability function (CPF) was applied to estimate the local source effects from wind direction using the PMF-resolved source contribution coupled with the surface wind direction data. Health exposure risk for hazardous trace elements (Pb, As, Cr, Ni, Zn, V, Cu, Mn, Fe) and source-specific values were estimated. The total hazard quotient (total HQ =HI) of PM2.5 was 2.09, which is two times higher than the acceptable limit (HQ = 1). The total carcinogenic risk was 3.37*10-3 for PM2.5, which was three orders higher than the acceptable limit (i.e. 1.0*10-6). Among the selected trace elements, As and Pb posed the highest non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks for human health, respectively. In additional, our results showed that industrial coal combustion source was the dominant non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks contributor, highlighting the need for stringent control of this source. This study can provide new insight for policy makers to prioritize sources in air quality management and health risk reduction.

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase IV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauman, William H., III; Crawford, Winifred C.

2012-01-01

As with the previous year, the past year of this award has been productive and a number of important results and refereed publications either submitted or published. Some of our research results are discussed here and a list the papers submitted or published in the past year is provided. Besides our original model of an outer heliosheath source for the IBEX "ribbon" we have continued to explore alternative possibilities and further our understanding of this very complex region, especially in light of the possibility raised by the IBEX results that suggest the possibility of a 1-shock model.

Study on lockage safety of LNG-fueled ships based on FSA

PubMed Central

Lv, Pengfei; Zhuang, Yuan; Deng, Jian; Su, Wei

2017-01-01

In the present study, formal safety assessment (FSA) is introduced to investigate lockage safety of LNG-fueled ships. Risk sources during lockage of LNG-fueled ships in four typical scenarios, namely, navigation between two dams, lockage, anchorage, and fueling, are identified, and studied in combination with fundamental leakage probabilities of various components of LNG storage tanks, and simulation results of accident consequences. Some suggestions for lockage safety management of LNG-fueled ships are then proposed. The present research results have certain practical significance for promoting applications of LNG-fueled ships along Chuanjiang River and in Three Gorges Reservoir Region. PMID:28437482

The black hole candidate MAXI J1659-152 in and towards quiescence in X-ray and radio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonker, P. G.; Miller-Jones, J. C. A.; Homan, J.; Tomsick, J.; Fender, R. P.; Kaaret, P.; Markoff, S.; Gallo, E.

2012-07-01

In this paper we report on Expanded Very Large Array radio and Chandra and Swift X-ray observations of the outburst decay of the transient black hole candidate MAXI J1659-152 in 2011. We discuss the distance to the source taking the high inclination into account and conclude that the source distance is probably 6 ± 2 kpc. The lowest observed flux corresponds to a luminosity of ? erg s-1. This, together with the orbital period of 2.4 h reported in the literature, suggests that the quiescent X-ray luminosity is higher than predicted on the basis of the orbital period-quiescent X-ray luminosity relationship. It is more in line with that expected for a neutron star, although the outburst spectral and timing properties reported in the literature strongly suggest that MAXI J1659-152 harbours a black hole. This conclusion is subject to confirmation of the lowest observed flux as the quiescent flux. The relation between the accretion and ejection mechanisms can be studied using the observed correlation between the radio and X-ray luminosities as these evolve over an outburst. We determine the behaviour of MAXI J1659-152 in the radio-X-ray diagram at low X-ray luminosities using the observations reported in this paper and at high X-ray luminosities using values reported in the literature. At high X-ray luminosities, the source lies closer to the sources that follow a correlation index steeper than 0.6-0.7. However, when compared to other sources that follow a steeper correlation index, the X-ray luminosity in MAXI J1659-152 is also lower. The latter can potentially be explained by the high inclination of MAXI J1659-152 if the X-ray emission comes from close to the source and the radio emission is originating in a more extended region. However, it is probable that the source was not in the canonical low-hard state during these radio observations and this may affect the behaviour of the source as well. At intermediate X-ray luminosities, the source makes the transition from the radio underluminous sources in the direction of the relation traced by the 'standard' correlation similar to what has been reported for H 1743-322 in the literature. However, MAXI J1659-152 remains underluminous with respect to this 'standard' correlation.

Seismic hazard analysis for Jayapura city, Papua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robiana, R.; Cipta, A.

2015-04-01

Jayapura city had destructive earthquake which occurred on June 25, 1976 with the maximum intensity VII MMI scale. Probabilistic methods are used to determine the earthquake hazard by considering all possible earthquakes that can occur in this region. Earthquake source models using three types of source models are subduction model; comes from the New Guinea Trench subduction zone (North Papuan Thrust), fault models; derived from fault Yapen, TareraAiduna, Wamena, Memberamo, Waipago, Jayapura, and Jayawijaya, and 7 background models to accommodate unknown earthquakes. Amplification factor using geomorphological approaches are corrected by the measurement data. This data is related to rock type and depth of soft soil. Site class in Jayapura city can be grouped into classes B, C, D and E, with the amplification between 0.5 - 6. Hazard maps are presented with a 10% probability of earthquake occurrence within a period of 500 years for the dominant periods of 0.0, 0.2, and 1.0 seconds.

Summertime measurements of selected nonmethane hydrocarbons in the Arctic and Subarctic during the 1988 Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blake, Donald R.; Hurst, Dale F.; Smith, Tyrrel W., Jr.; Whipple, Wayne J.; Chen, Tai-Yih; Blake, Nicola J.; Rowland, F. S.

1992-01-01

The concentration distributions of several nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHIC) in the Arctic and Subarctic regions of Alaska are discussed using data obtained during July and August of 1988 as part of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A). Plume enhancement of some or all of the measured NMHIC were observed on more than half of the 33 missions flown during the project. The usual summer vertical profile of reactive hydrocarbons at these high latitudes has elevated concentrations at high altitudes, with mixing ratio variations largely controlled by hydroxyl radical reactions. Wildfires were established as a significant source of various NMHIC. Biomass burning emission ratios relative to ethane were established for ethyne (0.38 +/- 0.04) and propane (0.08 +/- 0.03). Activities associated with oil drilling are a probable source of enhanced levels of alkanes observed as much as 300 km northeast of Prudhoe Bay.

Operation reliability analysis of independent power plants of gas-transmission system distant production facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piskunov, Maksim V.; Voytkov, Ivan S.; Vysokomornaya, Olga V.; Vysokomorny, Vladimir S.

2015-01-01

The new approach was developed to analyze the failure causes in operation of linear facilities independent power supply sources (mini-CHP-plants) of gas-transmission system in Eastern part of Russia. Triggering conditions of ceiling operation substance temperature at condenser output were determined with mathematical simulation use of unsteady heat and mass transfer processes in condenser of mini-CHP-plants. Under these conditions the failure probability in operation of independent power supply sources is increased. Influence of environmental factors (in particular, ambient temperature) as well as output electric capability values of power plant on mini-CHP-plant operation reliability was analyzed. Values of mean time to failure and power plant failure density during operation in different regions of Eastern Siberia and Far East of Russia were received with use of numerical simulation results of heat and mass transfer processes at operation substance condensation.

Relating stress models of magma emplacement to volcano-tectonic earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas-Bracamontes, D.; Neuberg, J.

2007-12-01

Among the various types of seismic signals linked to volcanic processes, volcano-tectonic earthquakes are probably the earliest precursors of volcanic eruptions. Understanding their relationship with magma emplacement can provide insight into the mechanisms of magma transport at depth and assist in the ultimate goal of forecasting eruptions. Volcano-tectonic events have been observed to occur on faults that experience increases in Coulomb stress changes as the result of magma intrusions. To simulate stress changes associated with magmatic injections, we test different models of volcanic sources in an elastic half-space. For each source model, we look at several aspects that influence the stress conditions of the magmatic system such as the regional tectonic setting, the effect of varying the elastic parameters of the media, the evolution of the magma with time, as well as the volume and rheology of the ascending magma.

Chemical stratigraphy of the Apollo 17 deep drill cores 70009-70007

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ehmann, W. D.; Ali, M. Z.

1977-01-01

A description is presented of an analysis of a total of 26 samples from three core segments (70009, 70008, 70007) of the Apollo 17 deep drill string. The deep drill string was taken about 700 m east of the Camelot Crater in the Taurus-Littrow region of the moon. Three core segments have been chemically characterized from the mainly coarse-grained upper portion of the deep drill string. The chemical data suggest that the entire 70007-70009 portion of the deep drill string examined was not deposited as a single unit, but was formed by several events sampling slightly different source materials which may have occurred over a relatively short period of time. According to the data from drill stem 70007, there were at least two phases of deposition. Core segment 70009 is probably derived from somewhat different source material than 70008. It seems to be a very well mixed material.

Probabilities for gravitational lensing by point masses in a locally inhomogeneous universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isaacson, Jeffrey A.; Canizares, Claude R.

1989-01-01

Probability functions for gravitational lensing by point masses that incorporate Poisson statistics and flux conservation are formulated in the Dyer-Roeder construction. Optical depths to lensing for distant sources are calculated using both the method of Press and Gunn (1973) which counts lenses in an otherwise empty cone, and the method of Ehlers and Schneider (1986) which projects lensing cross sections onto the source sphere. These are then used as parameters of the probability density for lensing in the case of a critical (q0 = 1/2) Friedmann universe. A comparison of the probability functions indicates that the effects of angle-averaging can be well approximated by adjusting the average magnification along a random line of sight so as to conserve flux.

On the structure of pressure fluctuations in simulated turbulent channel flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, John

1989-01-01

Pressure fluctuations in a turbulent channel flow are investigated by analyzing a database obtained from a direct numerical simulation. Detailed statistics associated with the pressure fluctuations are presented. Characteristics associated with the rapid (linear) and slow (nonlinear) pressure are discussed. It is found that the slow pressure fluctuations are larger than the rapid pressure fluctuations throughout the channel except very near the wall, where they are about the same magnitude. This is contrary to the common belief that the nonlinear source terms are negligible compared to the linear source terms. Probability density distributions, power spectra, and two-point correlations are examined to reveal the characteristics of the pressure fluctuations. The global dependence of the pressure fluctuations and pressure-strain correlations are also examined by evaluating the integral associated with Green's function representations of them. In the wall region where the pressure-strain terms are large, most contributions to the pressure-strain terms are from the wall region (i.e., local), whereas away from the wall where the pressure-strain terms are small, contributions are global. Structures of instantaneous pressure and pressure gradients at the wall and the corresponding vorticity field are examined.

Performance improvement in novel germanium-tin/germanium heterojunction-enhanced p-channel tunneling field-effect transistor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongjuan; Liu, Yan; Liu, Mingshan; Zhang, Qingfang; Zhang, Chunfu; Ma, Xiaohua; Zhang, Jincheng; Hao, Yue; Han, Genquan

2015-07-01

We design a novel GeSn-based heterojunction-enhanced p-channel tunneling field-effect transistor (HE-PTFET) with a Ge0.92Sn0.08/Ge heterojunction located in channel region, at a distance of LT-H from the Ge0.92Sn0.08 source-channel tunneling junction (TJ). HE-PTFETs demonstrate the negative shift of onset voltage VONSET, the steeper subthreshold swing S, and the improved on-state current ION compared to Ge0.92Sn0.08 homo-PTFET. At low VGS, the suppression of BTBT due to the widening of the tunneling barrier caused by the heterojunction leads to a negative shift of VONSET in HE-PTFETs. At high VGS, ION enhancement in HE-PTFETs is achieved over the homo device, which is attributed to the confinement of BTBT in Ge0.92Sn0.08 source-channel TJ region by the heterojunction, where the short tunneling paths lead to a high tunneling probability. Due to the steeper average S, HE-PTFET with a 6 nm LT-H achieves a 4 times higher ION compared to homo device at a VDD of -0.3 V.

Turbulent aerosol fluxes over the Arctic Ocean: 2. Wind-driven sources from the sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, E. D.; Rannik, Ü.; Swietlicki, E.; Leck, C.; Aalto, P. P.; Zhou, J.; Norman, M.

2001-12-01

An eddy-covariance flux system was successfully applied over open sea, leads and ice floes during the Arctic Ocean Expedition in July-August 1996. Wind-driven upward aerosol number fluxes were observed over open sea and leads in the pack ice. These particles must originate from droplets ejected into the air at the bursting of small air bubbles at the water surface. The source flux F (in 106 m-2 s-1) had a strong dependency on wind speed, log>(F>)=0.20U¯-1.71 and 0.11U¯-1.93, over the open sea and leads, respectively (where U¯ is the local wind speed at about 10 m height). Over the open sea the wind-driven aerosol source flux consisted of a film drop mode centered at ˜100 nm diameter and a jet drop mode centered at ˜1 μm diameter. Over the leads in the pack ice, a jet drop mode at ˜2 μm diameter dominated. The jet drop mode consisted of sea-salt, but oxalate indicated an organic contribution, and bacterias and other biogenic particles were identified by single particle analysis. Particles with diameters less than -100 nm appear to have contributed to the flux, but their chemical composition is unknown. Whitecaps were probably the bubble source at open sea and on the leads at high wind speed, but a different bubble source is needed in the leads owing to their small fetch. Melting of ice in the leads is probably the best candidate. The flux over the open sea was of such a magnitude that it could give a significant contribution to the condensation nuclei (CCN) population. Although the flux from the leads were roughly an order of magnitude smaller and the leads cover only a small fraction of the pack ice, the local source may till be important for the CCN population in Arctic fogs. The primary marine aerosol source will increase both with increased wind speed and with decreased ice fraction and extent. The local CCN production may therefore increase and influence cloud or fog albedo and lifetime in response to greenhouse warming in the Arctic Ocean region.

Source preference and ambiguity aversion: models and evidence from behavioral and neuroimaging experiments.

PubMed

Chew, Soo Hong; Li, King King; Chark, Robin; Zhong, Songfa

2008-01-01

This experimental economics study using brain imaging techniques investigates the risk-ambiguity distinction in relation to the source preference hypothesis (Fox & Tversky, 1995) in which identically distributed risks arising from different sources of uncertainty may engender distinct preferences for the same decision maker, contrary to classical economic thinking. The use of brain imaging enables sharper testing of the implications of different models of decision-making including Chew and Sagi's (2008) axiomatization of source preference. Using fMRI, brain activations were observed when subjects make 48 sequential binary choices among even-chance lotteries based on whether the trailing digits of a number of stock prices at market closing would be odd or even. Subsequently, subjects rate familiarity of the stock symbols. When contrasting brain activation from more familiar sources with those from less familiar ones, regions appearing to be more active include the putamen, medial frontal cortex, and superior temporal gyrus. ROI analysis showed that the activation patterns in the familiar-unfamiliar and unfamiliar-familiar contrasts are similar to those in the risk-ambiguity and ambiguity-risk contrasts reported by Hsu et al. (2005). This supports the conjecture that the risk-ambiguity distinction can be subsumed by the source preference hypothesis. Our odd-even design has the advantage of inducing the same "unambiguous" probability of half for each subject in each binary comparison. Our finding supports the implications of the Chew-Sagi model and rejects models based on global probabilistic sophistication, including rank-dependent models derived from non-additive probabilities, e.g., Choquet expected utility and cumulative prospect theory, as well as those based on multiple priors, e.g., alpha-maxmin. The finding in Hsu et al. (2005) that orbitofrontal cortex lesion patients display neither ambiguity aversion nor risk aversion offers further support to the Chew-Sagi model. Our finding also supports the Levy et al. (2007) contention of a single valuation system encompassing risk and ambiguity aversion. This is the first neuroimaging study of the source preference hypothesis using a design which can discriminate among decision models ranging from risk-based ones to those relying on multiple priors.

Filter design for the detection of compact sources based on the Neyman-Pearson detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Caniego, M.; Herranz, D.; Barreiro, R. B.; Sanz, J. L.

2005-05-01

This paper considers the problem of compact source detection on a Gaussian background. We present a one-dimensional treatment (though a generalization to two or more dimensions is possible). Two relevant aspects of this problem are considered: the design of the detector and the filtering of the data. Our detection scheme is based on local maxima and it takes into account not only the amplitude but also the curvature of the maxima. A Neyman-Pearson test is used to define the region of acceptance, which is given by a sufficient linear detector that is independent of the amplitude distribution of the sources. We study how detection can be enhanced by means of linear filters with a scaling parameter, and compare some filters that have been proposed in the literature [the Mexican hat wavelet, the matched filter (MF) and the scale-adaptive filter (SAF)]. We also introduce a new filter, which depends on two free parameters (the biparametric scale-adaptive filter, BSAF). The value of these two parameters can be determined, given the a priori probability density function of the amplitudes of the sources, such that the filter optimizes the performance of the detector in the sense that it gives the maximum number of real detections once it has fixed the number density of spurious sources. The new filter includes as particular cases the standard MF and the SAF. As a result of its design, the BSAF outperforms these filters. The combination of a detection scheme that includes information on the curvature and a flexible filter that incorporates two free parameters (one of them a scaling parameter) improves significantly the number of detections in some interesting cases. In particular, for the case of weak sources embedded in white noise, the improvement with respect to the standard MF is of the order of 40 per cent. Finally, an estimation of the amplitude of the source (most probable value) is introduced and it is proven that such an estimator is unbiased and has maximum efficiency. We perform numerical simulations to test these theoretical ideas in a practical example and conclude that the results of the simulations agree with the analytical results.

Photon escape probabilities in a semi-infinite plane-parallel medium. [from electron plasma surrounding galactic X-ray sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, A. C.; Elsner, R. F.; Weisskopf, M. C.; Darbro, W.

1984-01-01

It is shown in this work how to obtain the probabilities of photons escaping from a cold electron plasma environment after having undergone an arbitrary number of scatterings. This is done by retaining the exact differential cross section for Thomson scattering as opposed to using its polarization and angle averaged form. The results are given in the form of recursion relations. The geometry used is the semi-infinite plane-parallel geometry witlh a photon source located on a plane at an arbitrary optical depth below the surface. Analytical expressions are given for the probabilities which are accurate over a wide range of initial optical depth. These results can be used to model compact X-ray galactic sources which are surrounded by an electron-rich plasma.

Emission Patterns of Solar Type III Radio Bursts: Stereoscopic Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thejappa, G.; MacDowall, R.; Bergamo, M.

2012-01-01

Simultaneous observations of solar type III radio bursts obtained by the STEREO A, B, and WIND spacecraft at low frequencies from different vantage points in the ecliptic plane are used to determine their directivity. The heliolongitudes of the sources of these bursts, estimated at different frequencies by assuming that they are located on the Parker spiral magnetic field lines emerging from the associated active regions into the spherically symmetric solar atmosphere, and the heliolongitudes of the spacecraft are used to estimate the viewing angle, which is the angle between the direction of the magnetic field at the source and the line connecting the source to the spacecraft. The normalized peak intensities at each spacecraft Rj = Ij /[Sigma]Ij (the subscript j corresponds to the spacecraft STEREO A, B, and WIND), which are defined as the directivity factors are determined using the time profiles of the type III bursts. It is shown that the distribution of the viewing angles divides the type III bursts into: (1) bursts emitting into a very narrow cone centered around the tangent to the magnetic field with angular width of approximately 2 deg and (2) bursts emitting into a wider cone with angular width spanning from [approx] -100 deg to approximately 100 deg. The plots of the directivity factors versus the viewing angles of the sources from all three spacecraft indicate that the type III emissions are very intense along the tangent to the spiral magnetic field lines at the source, and steadily fall as the viewing angles increase to higher values. The comparison of these emission patterns with the computed distributions of the ray trajectories indicate that the intense bursts visible in a narrow range of angles around the magnetic field directions probably are emitted in the fundamental mode, whereas the relatively weaker bursts visible to a wide range of angles are probably emitted in the harmonic mode.

Omani propolis: chemical profiling, antibacterial activity and new propolis plant sources

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Propolis (bee glue) is a resinous honeybee product having a long history of application in many countries as a traditional remedy for treating wounds, burns, soar throat, stomach disorders, etc. It has been proved to possess beneficial biological effects, including antimicrobial, antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, cytotoxic, antiulcer, and many others. Bees gather propolis from diverse resinous plant parts and in different phytogeographic regions its chemical composition might vary significantly. In this article we report the results of the first study on the chemical profiles of propolis from Oman, its plant origin and antibacterial activity. Results The chemical profiles of Omani propolis extracts were obtained by GC-MS analysis after silylation. Over 50 individual compounds were identified in the samples, belonging to different compound types: sugars, polyols, hydroxy acids, fatty acids, cardanols and cardols, anacardic acids, flavan derivatives, triterpenes, prenylated flavanones and chalcones. The profiles were dissimilar from other known propolis types. They demonstrate that although Oman is not a large country, the plant sources of propolis vary significantly, even in the same apiary and the same season. Based on chemical profiles, and isolation and identification of major marker compounds (new propolis constituents), new plant sources of propolis were found: Azadiracta indica (neem tree) and Acacia spp. (most probably A. nilotica). The ethanol extracts of the studied propolis samples demonstrated activity against S. aureus (MIC < 100 μg. mL-1) and E. coli (MIC < 380 μg. mL-1). Conclusion Omani propolis is different form the known propolis types and demonstrates significant chemical diversity. Its most important plant source is the resin of Azadirachta indica, and as a result its typical components are С5-prenyl flavanones. Other plant sources have been identified, too, playing some role in resin collection by bees in Oman: Acacia spp. (most probably A. nilotica) and Mangifera indica. The results demonstrate also the potential of Omani propolis as antimicrobial. PMID:24053750

The Saguenay Fjord, Quebec, Canada: Integrating marine geotechnical and geophysical data for spatial seismic slope stability and hazard assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urgeles, R.; Locat, J.; Lee, H.J.; Martin, F.

2002-01-01

In 1996 a major flood occurred in the Saguenay region, Quebec, Canada, delivering several km3 of sediment to the Saguenay Fjord. Such sediments covered large areas of the, until then, largely contaminated fjord bottom, thus providing a natural capping layer. Recent swath bathymetry data have also shown that sediment landslides are widely present in the upper section of the Saguenay Fjord, and therefore, should a new event occur, it would probably expose the old contaminated sediments. Landslides in the Upper Saguenay Fjord are most probably due to earthquakes given its proximity to the Charlevoix seismic region and to that of the 1988 Saguenay earthquake. In consequence, this study tries to characterize the permanent ground deformations induced by different earthquake scenarios from which shallow sediment landslides could be triggered. The study follows a Newmark analysis in which, firstly, the seismic slope performance is assessed, secondly, the seismic hazard analyzed, and finally an evaluation of the seismic landslide hazard is made. The study is based on slope gradients obtained from EM1000 multibeam bathymetry data as well as water content and undrained shear strength measurements made in box and gravity cores. Ground motions integrating local site conditions were simulated using synthetic time histories. The study assumes the region of the 1988 Saguenay earthquake as the most likely source area for earthquakes capable of inducing large ground motions in the Upper Saguenay region. Accordingly, we have analyzed several shaking intensities to deduce that generalized sediment displacements will begin to occur when moment magnitudes exceed 6. Major displacements, failure, and subsequent landslides could occur only from earthquake moment magnitudes exceeding 6.75. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A Probabilistic Model of Illegal Drug Trafficking Operations in the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

partner agencies and nations, detects, tracks, and interdicts illegal drug-trafficking in this region. In this thesis, we develop a probability model based...trafficking in this region. In this thesis, we develop a probability model based on intelligence inputs to generate a spatial temporal heat map specifying the...complement and vet such complicated simulation by developing more analytically tractable models. We develop probability models to generate a heat map

Pediatric Epidemic of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium in the Area of L'Aquila, Italy, Four Years after a Catastrophic Earthquake.

PubMed

Nigro, Giovanni; Bottone, Gabriella; Maiorani, Daniela; Trombatore, Fabiana; Falasca, Silvana; Bruno, Gianfranco

2016-05-06

A Salmonella enterica epidemic occurred in children of the area of L'Aquila (Central Italy, Abruzzo region) between June 2013 and October 2014, four years after the catastrophic earthquake of 6 April 2009. Clinical and laboratory data were collected from hospitalized and ambulatory children. Routine investigations for Salmonella infection were carried out on numerous alimentary matrices of animal origin and sampling sources for drinking water of the L'Aquila district, including pickup points of the two main aqueducts. Salmonella infection occurred in 155 children (83 females: 53%), aged 1 to 15 years (mean 2.10). Of these, 44 children (28.4%) were hospitalized because of severe dehydration, electrolyte abnormalities, and fever resistant to oral antipyretic and antibiotic drugs. Three children (1.9%) were reinfected within four months after primary infection by the same Salmonella strain. Four children (2.6%), aged one to two years, were coinfected by rotavirus. A seven-year old child had a concomitant right hip joint arthritis. The isolated strains, as confirmed in about the half of cases or probable/possible in the remaining ones, were identified as S. enterica serovar Typhimurium [4,5:i:-], monophasic variant. Aterno river, bordering the L'Aquila district, was recognized as the main responsible source for the contamination of local crops and vegetables derived from polluted crops. The high rate of hospitalized children underlines the emergence of a highly pathogenic S. enterica strain probably subsequent to the contamination of the spring water sources after geological changes occurred during the catastrophic earthquake.

Determination of photon emission probabilities for the main gamma-rays of ²²³Ra in equilibrium with its progeny.

PubMed

Pibida, L; Zimmerman, B; Fitzgerald, R; King, L; Cessna, J T; Bergeron, D E

2015-07-01

The currently published (223)Ra gamma-ray emission probabilities display a wide variation in the values depending on the source of the data. The National Institute of Standards and Technology performed activity measurements on a (223)Ra solution that was used to prepare several sources that were used to determine the photon emission probabilities for the main gamma-rays of (223)Ra in equilibrium with its progeny. Several high purity germanium (HPGe) detectors were used to perform the gamma-ray spectrometry measurements. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Spatial multi-scale variability of soil nutrients in relation to environmental factors in a typical agricultural region, eastern China.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Lv, Jianshu; Zhang, Bing; Bi, Jun

2013-04-15

Identifying the sources of spatial variability and deficiency risk of soil nutrients is a crucial issue for soil and agriculture management. A total of 1247 topsoil samples (0-20 cm) were collected at the nodes of a 2×2 km grid in Rizhao City and the contents of soil organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) were determined. Factorial kriging analysis (FKA), stepwise multiple regression, and indicator kriging (IK) were appled to investigate the scale dependent correlations among soil nutrients, identify the sources of spatial variability at each spatial scale, and delineate the potential risk of soil nutrient deficiency. Linear model of co-regionalization (LMC) fitting indicated that the presence of multi-scale variation was comprised of nugget effect, an exponential structure with a range of 12 km (local scale), and a spherical structure with a range of 84 km (regional scale). The short-range variation of OC and TN was mainly dominated by land use types, and TP was controlled by terrain. At long-range scale, spatial variation of OC, TN, and TP was dominated by parent material. Indicator kriging maps depicted the probability of soil nutrient deficiency compared with the background values in eastern Shandong province. The high deficiency risk area of all nutrient integration was mainly located in eastern and northwestern parts. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

mouloud, Hamidatou

2016-04-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

Teleseismic and regional data analysis for estimating depth, mechanism and rupture process of the 3 April 2017 MW 6.5 Botswana earthquake and its aftershock (5 April 2017, MW 4.5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letort, J.; Guilhem Trilla, A.; Ford, S. R.; Sèbe, O.; Causse, M.; Cotton, F.; Campillo, M.; Letort, G.

2017-12-01

We constrain the source, depth, and rupture process of the Botswana earthquake of April 3, 2017, as well as its largest aftershock (5 April 2017, Mw 4.5). This earthquake is the largest recorded event (Mw 6.5) in the East African rift system since 1970, making one important case study to better understand source processes in stable continental regions. For the two events an automatic cepstrum analysis (Letort et al., 2015) is first applied on respectively 215 and 219 teleseismic records, in order to detect depth phase arrivals (pP, sP) in the P-coda. Coherent detections of depth phases for different azimuths allow us to estimate the hypocentral depths respectively at 28 and 23 km, suggesting that the events are located in the lower crust. A same cepstrum analysis is conducted on five other earthquakes with mb>4 in this area (from 2002 to 2017), and confirms a deep crustal seismicity cluster (around 20-30 km). The source mechanisms are then characterized using a joint inversion method by fitting both regional long-period surface-waves and teleseismic high-frequency body-waves. Combining regional and teleseismic data (as well as systematic comparisons between theoretical and observed regional surface-waves dispersion curves prior to the inversion) allows us to decrease epistemic uncertainties due to lack of regional data and poor knowledge about the local velocity structure. Focal mechanisms are both constrained as normal faulting with a northwest trending, and hypocentral depths are confirmed at 28 and 24 km. Finally, in order to study the mainshock rupture process, we originally apply a kymograph analysis method (an image processing method, commonly used in the field of cell biology for identifying motions of molecular motors, e.g. Mangeol et al., 2016). Here, the kymograph allows us to better identify high-frequency teleseismic P-arrivals inside the P-coda by tracking both reflected depth phase and direct P-wave arrivals radiated from secondary sources during the faulting process. Secondary P-arrivals are thus identified with a significant azimuthal variation of their arrival times (until 4s), allowing the localization of the source that generated these secondary waves. This analysis shows that the mainshock is probably a mix of at least two events, the second being 20-30 km further northwest along the fault.

Molecular gas associated with IRAS 10361-5830

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vazzano, M. M.; Cappa, C. E.; Vasquez, J.; Rubio, M.; Romero, G. A.

2014-10-01

Aims: We analyze the distribution of the molecular gas and dust in the molecular clump linked to IRAS 10361-5830, located in the environs of the bubble-shaped Hii region Gum 31 in the Carina region, with the aim of determining the main parameters of the associated material and of investigating the evolutionary state of the young stellar objects identified there. Methods: Using the APEX telescope, we mapped the molecular emission in the J = 3-2 transition of three CO isotopologues, 12CO, 13CO and C18O, over a 1.´5 × 1.´5 region around the IRAS position. We also observed the high-density tracers CS and HCO+ toward the source. The cold- dust distribution was analyzed using submillimeter continuum data at 870 μm obtained with the APEX telescope. Complementary IR and radio data at different wavelengths were used to complete the study of the interstellar medium. Results: The molecular gas distribution reveals a cavity and a shell-like structure of ~0.32 pc in radius centered at the position of the IRAS source, with some young stellar objects projected onto the cavity. The total molecular mass in the shell and the mean H2volume density are ~40 M⊙ and ~(1-2) × 103 cm-3. The cold-dust counterpart of the molecular shell has been detected in the far-IR at 870 μm and in Herschel data at 350 μm. Weak extended emission at 24 μm from warm dust is projected onto the cavity, as well as weak radio continuum emission. Conclusions: A comparison of the distribution of cold and warm dust, and molecular and ionized gas allows us to conclude that a compact Hii region has developed in the molecular clump, indicating that this is an area of recent massive star formation. Probable exciting sources capable of creating the compact Hii region are investigated. The 2MASS source 10380461-5846233 (MSX G286.3773-00.2563) seems to be responsible for the formation of the Hii region. FITS files with datacubes corresponding to 12CO, 13CO, C180 maps are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/570/A109

Forecasting the Rupture Directivity of Large Earthquakes: Centroid Bias of the Conditional Hypocenter Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donovan, J.; Jordan, T. H.

2012-12-01

Forecasting the rupture directivity of large earthquakes is an important problem in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), because directivity is known to strongly influence ground motions. We describe how rupture directivity can be forecast in terms of the "conditional hypocenter distribution" or CHD, defined to be the probability distribution of a hypocenter given the spatial distribution of moment release (fault slip). The simplest CHD is a uniform distribution, in which the hypocenter probability density equals the moment-release probability density. For rupture models in which the rupture velocity and rise time depend only on the local slip, the CHD completely specifies the distribution of the directivity parameter D, defined in terms of the degree-two polynomial moments of the source space-time function. This parameter, which is zero for a bilateral rupture and unity for a unilateral rupture, can be estimated from finite-source models or by the direct inversion of seismograms (McGuire et al., 2002). We compile D-values from published studies of 65 large earthquakes and show that these data are statistically inconsistent with the uniform CHD advocated by McGuire et al. (2002). Instead, the data indicate a "centroid biased" CHD, in which the expected distance between the hypocenter and the hypocentroid is less than that of a uniform CHD. In other words, the observed directivities appear to be closer to bilateral than predicted by this simple model. We discuss the implications of these results for rupture dynamics and fault-zone heterogeneities. We also explore their PSHA implications by modifying the CyberShake simulation-based hazard model for the Los Angeles region, which assumed a uniform CHD (Graves et al., 2011).

Seismic hazard assessment for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles S.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Luco, Nicholas; Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.

2012-01-01

We present the results of a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. The Mariana island arc has formed in response to northwestward subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the Philippine Sea plate, and this process controls seismic activity in the region. Historical seismicity, the Mariana megathrust, and two crustal faults on Guam were modeled as seismic sources, and ground motions were estimated by using published relations for a firm-rock site condition. Maps of peak ground acceleration, 0.2-second spectral acceleration for 5 percent critical damping, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration for 5 percent critical damping were computed for exceedance probabilities of 2 percent and 10 percent in 50 years. For 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, probabilistic peak ground acceleration is 0.94 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.57 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, 0.2-second spectral acceleration is 2.86 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 1.75 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration is 0.61 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.37 gravitational acceleration at Saipan. For 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, probabilistic peak ground acceleration is 0.49 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.29 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, 0.2-second spectral acceleration is 1.43 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.83 gravitational acceleration at Saipan, and 1.0-second spectral acceleration is 0.30 gravitational acceleration at Guam and 0.18 gravitational acceleration at Saipan. The dominant hazard source at the islands is upper Benioff-zone seismicity (depth 40–160 kilometers). The large probabilistic ground motions reflect the strong concentrations of this activity below the arc, especially near Guam.

Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahowald, N.M.; Muhs, D.R.; Levis, S.; Rasch, P.J.; Yoshioka, M.; Zender, C.S.; Luo, C.

2006-01-01

Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and -60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

High time-resolved elemental components in fine and coarse particles in the Pearl River Delta region of Southern China: Dynamic variations and effects of meteorology.

PubMed

Zhou, Shengzhen; Davy, Perry K; Wang, Xuemei; Cohen, Jason Blake; Liang, Jiaquan; Huang, Minjuan; Fan, Qi; Chen, Weihua; Chang, Ming; Ancelet, Travis; Trompetter, William J

2016-12-01

Hourly-resolved PM 2.5 and PM 10-2.5 samples were collected in the industrial city Foshan in the Pearl River Delta region, China. The samples were subsequently analyzed for elemental components and black carbon (BC). A key purpose of the study was to understand the composition of particulate matter (PM) at high-time resolution in a polluted urban atmosphere to identify key components contributing to extreme PM concentration events and examine the diurnal chemical concentration patterns for air quality management purposes. It was found that BC and S concentrations dominated in the fine mode, while elements with mostly crustal and oceanic origins such as Si, Ca, Al and Cl were found in the coarse size fraction. Most of the elements showed strong diurnal variations. S did not show clear diurnal variations, suggesting regional rather than local origin. Based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) method, 3 forcing factors were identified contributing to the extreme events of PM 2.5 and selected elements, i.e., urban direct emissions, wet deposition and a combination of coarse mode sources. Conditional probability functions (CPF) were performed using wind profiles and elemental concentrations. The CPF results showed that BC and elemental Cl, K, Fe, Cu and Zn in the fine mode were mostly from the northwest, indicating that industrial emissions and combustion were the main sources. For elements in the coarse mode, Si, Al, K, Ca, Fe and Ti showed similar patterns, suggesting same sources such as local soil dust/construction activities. Coarse elemental Cl was mostly from the south and southeast, implying the influence of marine aerosol sources. For other trace elements, we found vanadium (V) in fine PM was mainly from the sources located to the southeast of the measuring site. Combined with CPF results of S and V in fine PM, we concluded shipping emissions were likely an important elemental emission source. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Mixture Modeling for Background and Sources Separation in x-ray Astronomical Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guglielmetti, Fabrizia; Fischer, Rainer; Dose, Volker

2004-11-01

A probabilistic technique for the joint estimation of background and sources in high-energy astrophysics is described. Bayesian probability theory is applied to gain insight into the coexistence of background and sources through a probabilistic two-component mixture model, which provides consistent uncertainties of background and sources. The present analysis is applied to ROSAT PSPC data (0.1-2.4 keV) in Survey Mode. A background map is modelled using a Thin-Plate spline. Source probability maps are obtained for each pixel (45 arcsec) independently and for larger correlation lengths, revealing faint and extended sources. We will demonstrate that the described probabilistic method allows for detection improvement of faint extended celestial sources compared to the Standard Analysis Software System (SASS) used for the production of the ROSAT All-Sky Survey (RASS) catalogues.

Collective odor source estimation and search in time-variant airflow environments using mobile robots.

PubMed

Meng, Qing-Hao; Yang, Wei-Xing; Wang, Yang; Zeng, Ming

2011-01-01

This paper addresses the collective odor source localization (OSL) problem in a time-varying airflow environment using mobile robots. A novel OSL methodology which combines odor-source probability estimation and multiple robots' search is proposed. The estimation phase consists of two steps: firstly, the separate probability-distribution map of odor source is estimated via Bayesian rules and fuzzy inference based on a single robot's detection events; secondly, the separate maps estimated by different robots at different times are fused into a combined map by way of distance based superposition. The multi-robot search behaviors are coordinated via a particle swarm optimization algorithm, where the estimated odor-source probability distribution is used to express the fitness functions. In the process of OSL, the estimation phase provides the prior knowledge for the searching while the searching verifies the estimation results, and both phases are implemented iteratively. The results of simulations for large-scale advection-diffusion plume environments and experiments using real robots in an indoor airflow environment validate the feasibility and robustness of the proposed OSL method.

Collective Odor Source Estimation and Search in Time-Variant Airflow Environments Using Mobile Robots

PubMed Central

Meng, Qing-Hao; Yang, Wei-Xing; Wang, Yang; Zeng, Ming

2011-01-01

This paper addresses the collective odor source localization (OSL) problem in a time-varying airflow environment using mobile robots. A novel OSL methodology which combines odor-source probability estimation and multiple robots’ search is proposed. The estimation phase consists of two steps: firstly, the separate probability-distribution map of odor source is estimated via Bayesian rules and fuzzy inference based on a single robot’s detection events; secondly, the separate maps estimated by different robots at different times are fused into a combined map by way of distance based superposition. The multi-robot search behaviors are coordinated via a particle swarm optimization algorithm, where the estimated odor-source probability distribution is used to express the fitness functions. In the process of OSL, the estimation phase provides the prior knowledge for the searching while the searching verifies the estimation results, and both phases are implemented iteratively. The results of simulations for large-scale advection–diffusion plume environments and experiments using real robots in an indoor airflow environment validate the feasibility and robustness of the proposed OSL method. PMID:22346650

Hiding the interior region of core-shell nanoparticles with quantum invisible cloaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jeng Yi; Lee, Ray-Kuang

2014-04-01

Based on the scattering cancellation, we provide a method not only making a nanoparticle nearly invisible, but also hiding its interior region from the outside probing matter wave. By applying the interplay among the nodal points of partial waves along with the concept of streamline in fluid dynamics for probability flux, a quantum invisible cloak to the electron transport in a host semiconductor is demonstrated by simultaneously guiding the probability flux outside a hidden region and keeping the total scattering cross section negligible. As the probability flux vanishes in the interior region, one can embed any materials inside a multiple core-shell nanoparticle without affecting physical observables from the outside. Our results reveal the possibility to design a protection shield layer for fragile interior parts from the impact of transport electrons.

Repeated Earthquakes in the Vrancea Subcrustal Source and Source Scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Borleasnu, Felix; Radulian, Mircea

2017-12-01

The Vrancea seismic nest, located at the South-Eastern Carpathians Arc bend, in Romania, is a well-confined cluster of seismicity at intermediate depth (60 - 180 km). During the last 100 years four major shocks were recorded in the lithosphere body descending almost vertically beneath the Vrancea region: 10 November 1940 (Mw 7.7, depth 150 km), 4 March 1977 (Mw 7.4, depth 94 km), 30 August 1986 (Mw 7.1, depth 131 km) and a double shock on 30 and 31 May 1990 (Mw 6.9, depth 91 km and Mw 6.4, depth 87 km, respectively). The probability of repeated earthquakes in the Vrancea seismogenic volume is relatively large taking into account the high density of foci. The purpose of the present paper is to investigate source parameters and clustering properties for the repetitive earthquakes (located close each other) recorded in the Vrancea seismogenic subcrustal region. To this aim, we selected a set of earthquakes as templates for different co-located groups of events covering the entire depth range of active seismicity. For the identified clusters of repetitive earthquakes, we applied spectral ratios technique and empirical Green’s function deconvolution, in order to constrain as much as possible source parameters. Seismicity patterns of repeated earthquakes in space, time and size are investigated in order to detect potential interconnections with larger events. Specific scaling properties are analyzed as well. The present analysis represents a first attempt to provide a strategy for detecting and monitoring possible interconnections between different nodes of seismic activity and their role in modelling tectonic processes responsible for generating the major earthquakes in the Vrancea subcrustal seismogenic source.

From Source to Sink of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Sediments in the East China Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Z.; Lin, T.; Hu, L.

2014-12-01

The East China Seas (ECSs), including Bohai Sea (77,000 km2), Yellow Sea (400,000 km2) and East China Sea (770,000 km2) have experienced a great variety of demographic and economic conditions which have a profound influence on the source composition of land-based polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the sediments since ECSs's coasts support about 420 million peoples, provide more than half of the national GDP in China in 2007, and are major emission regions of PAHs in China. Furthermore, the ECSs are downwind of the Asian continental outflow in spring and winter driven by the East Asian monsoon. The sources of 16 USEPA priority PAHs in strategically selected surface sediment samples from the ECSs were apportioned using positive matrix factorization model, and the input pathways of PAHs were also revealed in the regions. Four sources were identified: petroleum residue, vehicular emissions, coal combustion and biomass burning. Petroleum residue was the dominant contributor of PAHs in the coast of the Bohai Bay probably due to Haihe River runoff, oil leakage from ships and offshore oil fields. The PAHs in sediments of the coastal East China Sea were mainly sourced from the Yangtze River discharge into the sea. The combined results of PMF, PCA and composition of PAHs suggest that the atmospheric deposition is the dominate input of PAHs for the open seas of Bohai Sea, East China Sea and Yellow Sea; while river input is the major pathway of PAHs in the estuarine and neighborhood coastal areas. The demographic and economic conditions around the ECSs have profound influence on the origins of the land-based PAHs in the sediments of the open seas.

BEESCOUT: A model of bee scouting behaviour and a software tool for characterizing nectar/pollen landscapes for BEEHAVE.

PubMed

Becher, M A; Grimm, V; Knapp, J; Horn, J; Twiston-Davies, G; Osborne, J L

2016-11-24

Social bees are central place foragers collecting floral resources from the surrounding landscape, but little is known about the probability of a scouting bee finding a particular flower patch. We therefore developed a software tool, BEESCOUT, to theoretically examine how bees might explore a landscape and distribute their scouting activities over time and space. An image file can be imported, which is interpreted by the model as a "forage map" with certain colours representing certain crops or habitat types as specified by the user. BEESCOUT calculates the size and location of these potential food sources in that landscape relative to a bee colony. An individual-based model then determines the detection probabilities of the food patches by bees, based on parameter values gathered from the flight patterns of radar-tracked honeybees and bumblebees. Various "search modes" describe hypothetical search strategies for the long-range exploration of scouting bees. The resulting detection probabilities of forage patches can be used as input for the recently developed honeybee model BEEHAVE, to explore realistic scenarios of colony growth and death in response to different stressors. In example simulations, we find that detection probabilities for food sources close to the colony fit empirical data reasonably well. However, for food sources further away no empirical data are available to validate model output. The simulated detection probabilities depend largely on the bees' search mode, and whether they exchange information about food source locations. Nevertheless, we show that landscape structure and connectivity of food sources can have a strong impact on the results. We believe that BEESCOUT is a valuable tool to better understand how landscape configurations and searching behaviour of bees affect detection probabilities of food sources. It can also guide the collection of relevant data and the design of experiments to close knowledge gaps, and provides a useful extension to the BEEHAVE honeybee model, enabling future users to explore how landscape structure and food availability affect the foraging decisions and patch visitation rates of the bees and, in consequence, to predict colony development and survival.

A comparative study of satellite estimation for solar insolation in Albania with ground measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitrushi, Driada, E-mail: driadamitrushi@yahoo.com; Berberi, Pëllumb, E-mail: pellumb.berberi@gmail.com; Muda, Valbona, E-mail: vmuda@hotmail.com

The main objective of this study is to compare data provided by Database of NASA with available ground data for regions covered by national meteorological net NASA estimates that their measurements of average daily solar radiation have a root-mean-square deviation RMSD error of 35 W/m{sup 2} (roughly 20% inaccuracy). Unfortunately valid data from meteorological stations for regions of interest are quite rare in Albania. In these cases, use of Solar Radiation Database of NASA would be a satisfactory solution for different case studies. Using a statistical method allows to determine most probable margins between to sources of data. Comparison of meanmore » insulation data provided by NASA with ground data of mean insulation provided by meteorological stations show that ground data for mean insolation results, in all cases, to be underestimated compared with data provided by Database of NASA. Converting factor is 1.149.« less

Virgo Intergalactic Globulars from the Sloan Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, Michael; West, Michael

2017-07-01

We have identified a new sample of Virgo intergalactic globular clusters (IGCs) and ultra compact dwarfs (UCDs) which have been serendipitously observed to date in Sloan Survey spectroscopy. There are 23 new objects with secure redshifts, all relatively red point sources with reliable velocities placing them at Virgo distances. They are spread widely across Virgo, significantly extending the spatial distribution of Virgo IGCs and UCDs to regions outside the well-studied M87 core region. The new sample are generally fainter, bluer, and probably more metal poor on average than the more centrally located, previously known objects. This systematic change carries information about the formation and continued evolution by accretion of the Virgo cluster, indicating a transition to less massive and less luminous objects being tidally disrupted in the outskirts now and in the recent past, compared to conditions in the inner cluster at early epochs.

Crustal evolution inferred from Apollo magnetic measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyal, P.; Daily, W. D.; Vanyan, L. L.

1978-01-01

Magnetic field and solar wind plasma density measurements were analyzed to determine the scale size characteristics of remanent fields at the Apollo 12, 15, and 16 landing sites. Theoretical model calculations of the field-plasma interaction, involving diffusion of the remanent field into the solar plasma, were compared to the data. The information provided by all these experiments shows that remanent fields over most of the lunar surface are characterized by spatial variations as small as a few kilometers. Large regions (50 to 100 km) of the lunar crust were probably uniformly magnetized during early crustal evolution. Bombardment and subsequent gardening of the upper layers of these magnetized regions left randomly oriented, smaller scale (5 to 10 km) magnetic sources close to the surface. The larger scale size fields of magnitude approximately 0.1 gammas are measured by the orbiting subsatellite experiments and the small scale sized remanent fields of magnitude approximately 100 gammas are measured by the surface experiments.

Probabilistic modelling of drought events in China via 2-dimensional joint copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayantobo, Olusola O.; Li, Yi; Song, Songbai; Javed, Tehseen; Yao, Ning

2018-04-01

Probabilistic modelling of drought events is a significant aspect of water resources management and planning. In this study, popularly applied and several relatively new bivariate Archimedean copulas were employed to derive regional and spatial based copula models to appraise drought risk in mainland China over 1961-2013. Drought duration (Dd), severity (Ds), and peak (Dp), as indicated by Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), were extracted according to the run theory and fitted with suitable marginal distributions. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and curve fitting method (CFM) were used to estimate the copula parameters of nineteen bivariate Archimedean copulas. Drought probabilities and return periods were analysed based on appropriate bivariate copula in sub-region I-VII and entire mainland China. The goodness-of-fit tests as indicated by the CFM showed that copula NN19 in sub-regions III, IV, V, VI and mainland China, NN20 in sub-region I and NN13 in sub-region VII are the best for modeling drought variables. Bivariate drought probability across mainland China is relatively high, and the highest drought probabilities are found mainly in the Northwestern and Southwestern China. Besides, the result also showed that different sub-regions might suffer varying drought risks. The drought risks as observed in Sub-region III, VI and VII, are significantly greater than other sub-regions. Higher probability of droughts of longer durations in the sub-regions also corresponds to shorter return periods with greater drought severity. These results may imply tremendous challenges for the water resources management in different sub-regions, particularly the Northwestern and Southwestern China.

Symbiotic Stars in X-rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luna, G. J. M.; Sokoloski, J. L.; Mukai, K.; Nelson, T.

2014-01-01

Until recently, symbiotic binary systems in which a white dwarf accretes from a red giant were thought to be mainly a soft X-ray population. Here we describe the detection with the X-ray Telescope (XRT) on the Swift satellite of 9 white dwarf symbiotics that were not previously known to be X-ray sources and one that was previously detected as a supersoft X-ray source. The 9 new X-ray detections were the result of a survey of 41 symbiotic stars, and they increase the number of symbiotic stars known to be X-ray sources by approximately 30%. Swift/XRT detected all of the new X-ray sources at energies greater than 2 keV. Their X-ray spectra are consistent with thermal emission and fall naturally into three distinct groups. The first group contains those sources with a single, highly absorbed hard component, which we identify as probably coming from an accretion-disk boundary layer. The second group is composed of those sources with a single, soft X-ray spectral component, which likely arises in a region where low-velocity shocks produce X-ray emission, i.e. a colliding-wind region. The third group consists of those sources with both hard and soft X-ray spectral components. We also find that unlike in the optical, where rapid, stochastic brightness variations from the accretion disk typically are not seen, detectable UV flickering is a common property of symbiotic stars. Supporting our physical interpretation of the two X-ray spectral components, simultaneous Swift UV photometry shows that symbiotic stars with harder X-ray emission tend to have stronger UV flickering, which is usually associated with accretion through a disk. To place these new observations in the context of previous work on X-ray emission from symbiotic stars, we modified and extended the alpha/beta/gamma classification scheme for symbiotic-star X-ray spectra that was introduced by Muerset et al. based upon observations with the ROSAT satellite, to include a new sigma classification for sources with hard X-ray emission from the innermost accretion region. Since we have identified the elusive accretion component in the emission from a sample of symbiotic stars, our results have implications for the understanding of wind-fed mass transfer in wide binaries, and the accretion rate in one class of candidate progenitors of type Ia supernovae.

Application of spatial Markov chains to the analysis of the temporal-spatial evolution of soil erosion.

PubMed

Liu, Ruimin; Men, Cong; Wang, Xiujuan; Xu, Fei; Yu, Wenwen

Soil and water conservation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China is important, and soil erosion is a significant issue. In the present study, spatial Markov chains were applied to explore the impacts of the regional context on soil erosion in the Xiangxi River watershed, and Thematic Mapper remote sensing data from 1999 and 2007 were employed. The results indicated that the observed changes in soil erosion were closely related to the soil erosion levels of the surrounding areas. When neighboring regions were not considered, the probability that moderate erosion transformed into slight and severe erosion was 0.8330 and 0.0049, respectively. However, when neighboring regions that displayed intensive erosion were considered, the probabilities were 0.2454 and 0.7513, respectively. Moreover, the different levels of soil erosion in neighboring regions played different roles in soil erosion. If the erosion levels in the neighboring region were lower, the probability of a high erosion class transferring to a lower level was relatively high. In contrast, if erosion levels in the neighboring region were higher, the probability was lower. The results of the present study provide important information for the planning and implementation of soil conservation measures in the study area.

Sandpile-based model for capturing magnitude distributions and spatiotemporal clustering and separation in regional earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batac, Rene C.; Paguirigan, Antonino A., Jr.; Tarun, Anjali B.; Longjas, Anthony G.

2017-04-01

We propose a cellular automata model for earthquake occurrences patterned after the sandpile model of self-organized criticality (SOC). By incorporating a single parameter describing the probability to target the most susceptible site, the model successfully reproduces the statistical signatures of seismicity. The energy distributions closely follow power-law probability density functions (PDFs) with a scaling exponent of around -1. 6, consistent with the expectations of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law, for a wide range of the targeted triggering probability values. Additionally, for targeted triggering probabilities within the range 0.004-0.007, we observe spatiotemporal distributions that show bimodal behavior, which is not observed previously for the original sandpile. For this critical range of values for the probability, model statistics show remarkable comparison with long-period empirical data from earthquakes from different seismogenic regions. The proposed model has key advantages, the foremost of which is the fact that it simultaneously captures the energy, space, and time statistics of earthquakes by just introducing a single parameter, while introducing minimal parameters in the simple rules of the sandpile. We believe that the critical targeting probability parameterizes the memory that is inherently present in earthquake-generating regions.

Using areas of known occupancy to identify sources of variation in detection probability of raptors: taking time lowers replication effort for surveys.

PubMed

Murn, Campbell; Holloway, Graham J

2016-10-01

Species occurring at low density can be difficult to detect and if not properly accounted for, imperfect detection will lead to inaccurate estimates of occupancy. Understanding sources of variation in detection probability and how they can be managed is a key part of monitoring. We used sightings data of a low-density and elusive raptor (white-headed vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis ) in areas of known occupancy (breeding territories) in a likelihood-based modelling approach to calculate detection probability and the factors affecting it. Because occupancy was known a priori to be 100%, we fixed the model occupancy parameter to 1.0 and focused on identifying sources of variation in detection probability. Using detection histories from 359 territory visits, we assessed nine covariates in 29 candidate models. The model with the highest support indicated that observer speed during a survey, combined with temporal covariates such as time of year and length of time within a territory, had the highest influence on the detection probability. Averaged detection probability was 0.207 (s.e. 0.033) and based on this the mean number of visits required to determine within 95% confidence that white-headed vultures are absent from a breeding area is 13 (95% CI: 9-20). Topographical and habitat covariates contributed little to the best models and had little effect on detection probability. We highlight that low detection probabilities of some species means that emphasizing habitat covariates could lead to spurious results in occupancy models that do not also incorporate temporal components. While variation in detection probability is complex and influenced by effects at both temporal and spatial scales, temporal covariates can and should be controlled as part of robust survey methods. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for detection probability in occupancy studies, particularly during presence/absence studies for species such as raptors that are widespread and occur at low densities.

Sources of ground movement at Vesuvius before the AD 79 eruption: Evidence from contemporary accounts and archaeological studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marturano, Aldo

2008-11-01

Historical sources have recorded earthquake shocks, their effects and difficulties that local inhabitants experienced before the AD 79 Pompeii eruption. Archaeological studies pointed out the effects of such seismicity, and have also evidenced that several water crises were occurring at Pompeii in that period. Indeed numerous sources show that, at the time of eruption, and probably some time before, the civic aqueduct, having ceased to be supplied by the regional one, was out of order and that a new one was being built. Since Roman aqueducts were usually built with a recommended minimum mean slope of 20 cm/km and Pompeii's aqueduct sloped from the nearby Apennines toward the town, this slope could have been easily cancelled by uplift that occurred in the area even if this was only moderate. For the crustal deformations a volcanic origin is proposed and a point source model is used to explain the observations. Simple analysis of the available data suggests that the ground deformations were caused by a < 2 km 3 volumetric change at a depth of ˜ 8 km that happened over the course of several decades.

Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

2010-05-01

Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations and ignition probability grids (1000 x 1000 m) built from historical fire data (1995-2007). The simulation outputs were then examined to understand relationships between burn probability and specific vegetation types and ignition sources. Wildfire threats to specific values of human interest were quantified to map landscape patterns of wildfire risk. The simulation outputs also allowed us to differentiate between areas of the landscape that were progenitors of fires versus "victims" of large fires. The results provided spatially explicit data on wildfire likelihood and intensity that can be used in a variety of strategic and tactical planning forums to mitigate wildfire threats to human and other values in the Mediterranean Basin.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: SFiNCs: X-ray, IR and membership catalogs (Getman+, 2017)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getman, K. V.; Broos, P. S.; Kuhn, M. A.; Feigelson, E. D.; Richert, A. J. W.; Ota, Y.; Bate, M. R.; Garmire, G. P.

2017-06-01

Sixty five X-ray observations for the 22 Star Formation in Nearby Clouds (SFiNCs) star-forming regions (SFRs) (see tables 1 and 2), made with the imaging array on the Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS), were pulled from the Chandra archive (spanning 2000 Jan to 2015 Apr; see table 2). Our final Chandra-ACIS catalog for the 22 SFiNCs SFRs comprises 15364 X-ray sources (Tables 3 and 4 and section 3.2). To obtain MIR photometry for X-ray objects and to identify and measure MIR photometry for additional non-Chandra disky stars that were missed in previous studies of the SFiNCs regions (typically faint YSOs), we have reduced the archived Spitzer-IRAC data by homogeneously applying the MYStIX-based Spitzer-IRAC data reduction methods of Kuhn+ (2013, J/ApJS/209/29) to the 423 Astronomical Object Request (AORs) data sets for the 22 SFiNCs SFRs (Table 5). As in MYStIX, here the SFiNCs IRAC source catalog retains all point sources with the photometric signal-to-noise ratio >5 in both [3.6] and [4.5] channels. This catalog covers the 22 SFiNCs SFRs and their vicinities on the sky and comprises 1638654 IRAC sources with available photometric measurements for 100%, 100%, 29%, and 23% of these sources in the 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, and 8.0um bands, respectively (see table 6 and section 3.4). Source position cross correlations between the SFiNCs Chandra X-ray source catalog and an IR catalog, either the "cut-out" IRAC or 2MASS, were made using the steps described in section 3.5. Tables 7 and 8 provide the list of 8492 SFiNCs probable cluster members (SPCMs) and their main IR and X-ray properties (see section 4). (9 data files).

The JCMT Plane Survey: early results from the ℓ = 30° field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, T. J. T.; Plume, R.; Thompson, M. A.; Parsons, H.; Urquhart, J. S.; Eden, D. J.; Dempsey, J. T.; Morgan, L. K.; Thomas, H. S.; Buckle, J.; Brunt, C. M.; Butner, H.; Carretero, D.; Chrysostomou, A.; deVilliers, H. M.; Fich, M.; Hoare, M. G.; Manser, G.; Mottram, J. C.; Natario, C.; Olguin, F.; Peretto, N.; Polychroni, D.; Redman, R. O.; Rigby, A. J.; Salji, C.; Summers, L. J.; Berry, D.; Currie, M. J.; Jenness, T.; Pestalozzi, M.; Traficante, A.; Bastien, P.; diFrancesco, J.; Davis, C. J.; Evans, A.; Friberg, P.; Fuller, G. A.; Gibb, A. G.; Gibson, S.; Hill, T.; Johnstone, D.; Joncas, G.; Longmore, S. N.; Lumsden, S. L.; Martin, P. G.; Nguyen Lu'o'ng, Q.; Pineda, J. E.; Purcell, C.; Richer, J. S.; Schieven, G. H.; Shipman, R.; Spaans, M.; Taylor, A. R.; Viti, S.; Weferling, B.; White, G. J.; Zhu, M.

2015-11-01

We present early results from the JCMT (James Clerk Maxwell Telescope) Plane Survey (JPS), which has surveyed the northern inner Galactic plane between longitudes ℓ = 7° and ℓ = 63° in the 850-μm continuum with SCUBA-2 (Submm Common-User Bolometer Array 2), as part of the JCMT Legacy Survey programme. Data from the ℓ = 30° survey region, which contains the massive-star-forming regions W43 and G29.96, are analysed after approximately 40 per cent of the observations had been completed. The pixel-to-pixel noise is found to be 19 mJy beam-1 after a smooth over the beam area, and the projected equivalent noise levels in the final survey are expected to be around 10 mJy beam-1. An initial extraction of compact sources was performed using the FELLWALKER method, resulting in the detection of 1029 sources above a 5σ surface-brightness threshold. The completeness limits in these data are estimated to be around 0.2 Jy beam-1 (peak flux density) and 0.8 Jy (integrated flux density) and are therefore probably already dominated by source confusion in this relatively crowded section of the survey. The flux densities of extracted compact sources are consistent with those of matching detections in the shallower APEX (Atacama Pathfinder Experiment) Telescope Large Area Survey of the Galaxy (ATLASGAL) survey. We analyse the virial and evolutionary state of the detected clumps in the W43 star-forming complex and find that they appear younger than the Galactic-plane average.

Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA). Volume III. Institutional barriers to developing power generation facilities in the Pacific Northwest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morris, F. A.; Sawyer, C. H.; Maxwell, J. H.

1979-10-01

The Regional Assessments Division in the US Department of Energy (DOE) has undertaken a program to assess the probable consequences of various national energy policies in regions of the United States and to evaluate the constraints on national energy policy imposed by conditions in these regions. The program is referred to as the Regional Issues Identification and Assessment (RIIA) Program. Currently the RIIA Program is evaluating the Trendlong Mid-Mid scenario, a pattern of energy development for 1985 and 1990 derived from the Project Independence Evaluation System (PIES) model. This scenario assumes a medium annual growth rate in both the nationalmore » demand for and national supply of energy. It has been disaggregated to specify the generating capacity to be supplied by each energy source in each state. Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) has the responsibility for evaluating the scenario for the Federal Region 10, consisting of Alaska, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. PNL is identifying impacts and constraints associated with realizing the scenario in a variety of categories, including air and water quality impacts, health and safety effects, and socioeconomic impacts. This report summarizes the analysis of one such category: institutional constraints - defined to include legal, organizational, and political barriers to the achievement of the scenario in the Northwest.« less

Source profiles of volatile organic compounds associated with solvent use in Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Bin; Shao, Min; Lu, Sihua; Wang, Bin

2010-05-01

Compositions of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from painting applications and printing processes were sampled and measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry/flame ionization detection (GC-MS/FID) in Beijing. Toluene and C8 aromatics were the most abundant species, accounting for 76% of the total VOCs emitted from paint applications. The major species in printing emissions included heavier alkanes and aromatics, such as n-nonane, n-decane, n-undecane, toluene, and m/p-xylene. Measurements of VOCs obtained from furniture paint emissions in 2003 and 2007 suggest a quick decline in benzene levels associated with formulation changes in furniture paints during these years. A comparison of VOC source profiles for painting and printing between Beijing and other parts of the world showed significant region-specific discrepancies, probably because of different market demands and environmental standards. We conducted the evaluation of the source reactivities for various VOC emission sources. The ozone formation potential (OFP) for unit mass of VOCs source emissions is the highest for paint applications. Substituting solvent-based paints by water-based in Beijing will lead to an OFP reduction of 152,000 tons per year, which is more than 1/4 of the OFPs for VOCs emissions from vehicle exhaust in the city.

Improved Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization for regional infrasound

DOE PAGES

Blom, Philip S.; Marcillo, Omar; Arrowsmith, Stephen J.

2015-10-20

The Bayesian Infrasonic Source Localization (BISL) methodology is examined and simplified providing a generalized method of estimating the source location and time for an infrasonic event and the mathematical framework is used therein. The likelihood function describing an infrasonic detection used in BISL has been redefined to include the von Mises distribution developed in directional statistics and propagation-based, physically derived celerity-range and azimuth deviation models. Frameworks for constructing propagation-based celerity-range and azimuth deviation statistics are presented to demonstrate how stochastic propagation modelling methods can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of the posterior probability density function describing themore » source localization. Infrasonic signals recorded at a number of arrays in the western United States produced by rocket motor detonations at the Utah Test and Training Range are used to demonstrate the application of the new mathematical framework and to quantify the improvement obtained by using the stochastic propagation modelling methods. Moreover, using propagation-based priors, the spatial and temporal confidence bounds of the source decreased by more than 40 per cent in all cases and by as much as 80 per cent in one case. Further, the accuracy of the estimates remained high, keeping the ground truth within the 99 per cent confidence bounds for all cases.« less

Modeling of negative ion transport in a plasma source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riz, David; Departement de Recherches sur la Fusion Controelee CE Cadarache, 13108 St Paul lez Durance; Pamela, Jerome

1998-08-20

A code called NIETZSCHE has been developed to simulate the negative ion transport in a plasma source, from their birth place to the extraction holes. The ion trajectory is calculated by numerically solving the 3-D motion equation, while the atomic processes of destruction, of elastic collision H{sup -}/H{sup +} and of charge exchange H{sup -}/H{sup 0} are handled at each time step by a Monte-Carlo procedure. This code can be used to calculate the extraction probability of a negative ion produced at any location inside the source. Calculations performed with NIETZSCHE have allowed to explain, either quantitatively or qualitatively, severalmore » phenomena observed in negative ion sources, such as the isotopic H{sup -}/D{sup -} effect, and the influence of the plasma grid bias or of the magnetic filter on the negative ion extraction. The code has also shown that in the type of sources contemplated for ITER, which operate at large arc power densities (>1 W cm{sup -3}), negative ions can reach the extraction region provided if they are produced at a distance lower than 2 cm from the plasma grid in the case of 'volume production' (dissociative attachment processes), or if they are produced at the plasma grid surface, in the vicinity of the extraction holes.« less

Modeling of negative ion transport in a plasma source (invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riz, David; Paméla, Jérôme

1998-02-01

A code called NIETZSCHE has been developed to simulate the negative ion transport in a plasma source, from their birth place to the extraction holes. The H-/D- trajectory is calculated by numerically solving the 3D motion equation, while the atomic processes of destruction, of elastic collision with H+/D+ and of charge exchange with H0/D0 are handled at each time step by a Monte Carlo procedure. This code can be used to calculate the extraction probability of a negative ion produced at any location inside the source. Calculations performed with NIETZSCHE have been allowed to explain, either quantitatively or qualitatively, several phenomena observed in negative ion sources, such as the isotopic H-/D- effect, and the influence of the plasma grid bias or of the magnetic filter on the negative ion extraction. The code has also shown that, in the type of sources contemplated for ITER, which operate at large arc power densities (>1 W cm-3), negative ions can reach the extraction region provided they are produced at a distance lower than 2 cm from the plasma grid in the case of volume production (dissociative attachment processes), or if they are produced at the plasma grid surface, in the vicinity of the extraction holes.

Modeling of negative ion transport in a plasma source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riz, David; Paméla, Jérôme

1998-08-01

A code called NIETZSCHE has been developed to simulate the negative ion transport in a plasma source, from their birth place to the extraction holes. The ion trajectory is calculated by numerically solving the 3-D motion equation, while the atomic processes of destruction, of elastic collision H-/H+ and of charge exchange H-/H0 are handled at each time step by a Monte-Carlo procedure. This code can be used to calculate the extraction probability of a negative ion produced at any location inside the source. Calculations performed with NIETZSCHE have allowed to explain, either quantitatively or qualitatively, several phenomena observed in negative ion sources, such as the isotopic H-/D- effect, and the influence of the plasma grid bias or of the magnetic filter on the negative ion extraction. The code has also shown that in the type of sources contemplated for ITER, which operate at large arc power densities (>1 W cm-3), negative ions can reach the extraction region provided if they are produced at a distance lower than 2 cm from the plasma grid in the case of «volume production» (dissociative attachment processes), or if they are produced at the plasma grid surface, in the vicinity of the extraction holes.

Part 2. Development of Enhanced Statistical Methods for Assessing Health Effects Associated with an Unknown Number of Major Sources of Multiple Air Pollutants.

PubMed

Park, Eun Sug; Symanski, Elaine; Han, Daikwon; Spiegelman, Clifford

2015-06-01

A major difficulty with assessing source-specific health effects is that source-specific exposures cannot be measured directly; rather, they need to be estimated by a source-apportionment method such as multivariate receptor modeling. The uncertainty in source apportionment (uncertainty in source-specific exposure estimates and model uncertainty due to the unknown number of sources and identifiability conditions) has been largely ignored in previous studies. Also, spatial dependence of multipollutant data collected from multiple monitoring sites has not yet been incorporated into multivariate receptor modeling. The objectives of this project are (1) to develop a multipollutant approach that incorporates both sources of uncertainty in source-apportionment into the assessment of source-specific health effects and (2) to develop enhanced multivariate receptor models that can account for spatial correlations in the multipollutant data collected from multiple sites. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework consisting of multivariate receptor models, health-effects models, and a hierarchical model on latent source contributions. For the health model, we focused on the time-series design in this project. Each combination of number of sources and identifiability conditions (additional constraints on model parameters) defines a different model. We built a set of plausible models with extensive exploratory data analyses and with information from previous studies, and then computed posterior model probability to estimate model uncertainty. Parameter estimation and model uncertainty estimation were implemented simultaneously by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC*) methods. We validated the methods using simulated data. We illustrated the methods using PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) speciation data and mortality data from Phoenix, Arizona, and Houston, Texas. The Phoenix data included counts of cardiovascular deaths and daily PM2.5 speciation data from 1995-1997. The Houston data included respiratory mortality data and 24-hour PM2.5 speciation data sampled every six days from a region near the Houston Ship Channel in years 2002-2005. We also developed a Bayesian spatial multivariate receptor modeling approach that, while simultaneously dealing with the unknown number of sources and identifiability conditions, incorporated spatial correlations in the multipollutant data collected from multiple sites into the estimation of source profiles and contributions based on the discrete process convolution model for multivariate spatial processes. This new modeling approach was applied to 24-hour ambient air concentrations of 17 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) measured at nine monitoring sites in Harris County, Texas, during years 2000 to 2005. Simulation results indicated that our methods were accurate in identifying the true model and estimated parameters were close to the true values. The results from our methods agreed in general with previous studies on the source apportionment of the Phoenix data in terms of estimated source profiles and contributions. However, we had a greater number of statistically insignificant findings, which was likely a natural consequence of incorporating uncertainty in the estimated source contributions into the health-effects parameter estimation. For the Houston data, a model with five sources (that seemed to be Sulfate-Rich Secondary Aerosol, Motor Vehicles, Industrial Combustion, Soil/Crustal Matter, and Sea Salt) showed the highest posterior model probability among the candidate models considered when fitted simultaneously to the PM2.5 and mortality data. There was a statistically significant positive association between respiratory mortality and same-day PM2.5 concentrations attributed to one of the sources (probably industrial combustion). The Bayesian spatial multivariate receptor modeling approach applied to the VOC data led to a highest posterior model probability for a model with five sources (that seemed to be refinery, petrochemical production, gasoline evaporation, natural gas, and vehicular exhaust) among several candidate models, with the number of sources varying between three and seven and with different identifiability conditions. Our multipollutant approach assessing source-specific health effects is more advantageous than a single-pollutant approach in that it can estimate total health effects from multiple pollutants and can also identify emission sources that are responsible for adverse health effects. Our Bayesian approach can incorporate not only uncertainty in the estimated source contributions, but also model uncertainty that has not been addressed in previous studies on assessing source-specific health effects. The new Bayesian spatial multivariate receptor modeling approach enables predictions of source contributions at unmonitored sites, minimizing exposure misclassification and providing improved exposure estimates along with their uncertainty estimates, as well as accounting for uncertainty in the number of sources and identifiability conditions.

Composition and origin of PM10 in Cape Verde: Characterization of long-range transport episodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvador, P.; Almeida, S. M.; Cardoso, J.; Almeida-Silva, M.; Nunes, T.; Cerqueira, M.; Alves, C.; Reis, M. A.; Chaves, P. C.; Artíñano, B.; Pio, C.

2016-02-01

A receptor modelling study was performed to identify source categories and their contributions to the PM10 total mass at the Cape Verde archipelago. Trajectory statistical methods were also used to characterize the main atmospheric circulation patterns causing the transport of air masses and to geographically identify the main potential source areas of each PM10 source category. Our findings point out that the variability of the PM10 levels at Cape Verde was prompted by the advections of African mineral dust. The mineral dust load was mainly composed by clay-silicates mineral derived elements (22% of the PM10 total mass on average) with lower amounts of carbonates (9%). A clear northward gradient was observed in carbonates concentration that illustrates the differences in the composition according to the source regions of mineral dust. Mineral dust was frequently linked to industrial emissions from crude oil refineries, fertilizer industries as well as oil and coal power plants, located in the northern and north-western coast of the African continent (29%). Sea salt was also registered in the PM10 mass during most part of the sampling period, with a lower impact in the PM10 levels than the mineral dust one (26%). Combustion aerosols (6%) reached the highest mean values in summer as a consequence of the emissions from local-regional sources. Biomass burning aerosols produced from October to November in sub-sahelian latitudes, had a clear influence in the content of elemental carbon (EC) recorded at Cape Verde but a small impact in the PM10 total mass levels. A minor contribution to the PM10 mass has been associated to secondary inorganic compounds-SIC. Namely, ammonium sulfate and nitrate (SIC 1-5%) and calcium sulfate and nitrate (SIC 2-3%). The main origin of SIC 1 was attributed to emissions of SO2 and NOx from industrial sources located in the northern and north-western African coast and from wildfires produced in the continent. SIC 2 had a clear regional origin in the summer period. However, in the winter period there were probably contributions of soil emissions of evaporate minerals from regions of eastern Algeria. The location of Cape Verde in the Atlantic Ocean at subtropical latitudes, and the absence of relevant local sources of anthropogenic atmospheric pollutants, becomes this archipelago, a perfect site to study the impact of external contributions on the background levels of PM10 registered over the north-eastern tropical Atlantic.

Modeling the probability of arsenic in groundwater in New England as a tool for exposure assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayotte, J.D.; Nolan, B.T.; Nuckols, J.R.; Cantor, K.P.; Robinson, G.R.; Baris, D.; Hayes, L.; Karagas, M.; Bress, W.; Silverman, D.T.; Lubin, J.H.

2006-01-01

We developed a process-based model to predict the probability of arsenic exceeding 5 ??g/L in drinking water wells in New England bedrock aquifers. The model is being used for exposure assessment in an epidemiologic study of bladder cancer. One important study hypothesis that may explain increased bladder cancer risk is elevated concentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water. In eastern New England, 20-30% of private wells exceed the arsenic drinking water standard of 10 micrograms per liter. Our predictive model significantly improves the understanding of factors associated with arsenic contamination in New England. Specific rock types, high arsenic concentrations in stream sediments, geochemical factors related to areas of Pleistocene marine inundation and proximity to intrusive granitic plutons, and hydrologic and landscape variables relating to groundwater residence time increase the probability of arsenic occurrence in groundwater. Previous studies suggest that arsenic in bedrock groundwater may be partly from past arsenical pesticide use. Variables representing historic agricultural inputs do not improve the model, indicating that this source does not significantly contribute to current arsenic concentrations. Due to the complexity of the fractured bedrock aquifers in the region, well depth and related variables also are not significant predictors. ?? 2006 American Chemical Society.

Risk-based targeting: A new approach in environmental protection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox, C.A.

1995-12-31

Risk-based targeting has recently emerged as an effective tool to help prioritize efforts to identify and manage geographic areas, chemicals, facilities, and agricultural activities that cause the most environmental degradation. This paper focuses on how the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently used risk-based targeting to identify and screen Federal, industrial, commercial and municipal facilities which contribute to probable human health (fish consumption advisories and contaminated fish tissue) and aquatic life (contaminated sediments) impacts. Preliminary results identified several hundred potential contributors of problem chemicals to probable impacts within the same river reach in 1991--93. Analysis by industry sector showed thatmore » the majority of the facilities identified were publicly owned treatment works (POTWs), in addition to industry organic and inorganic chemical manufacturers, petroleum refineries, and electric services, coatings, engravings, and allied services, among others. Both compliant and non-compliant potentially contributing facilities were identified to some extent in all EPA regions. Additional results identifying possible linkages of other pollutant sources to probable impacts, as well as estimation of potential exposure of these contaminants to minority and/or poverty populations are also presented. Out of these analyses, a number of short and long-term strategies are being developed that EPA may use to reduce loadings of problem contaminants to impacted waterbodies.« less

Geology and geophysics of the southern Raft River Valley geothermal area, Idaho, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Paul L.; Mabey, Don R.; Zohdy, Adel A.R.; Ackermann, Hans D.; Hoover, Donald B.; Pierce, Kenneth L.; Oriel, Steven S.

1976-01-01

The Raft River valley, near the boundary of the Snake River plain with the Basin and Range province, is a north-trending late Cenozoic downwarp bounded by faults on the west, south, and east. Pleistocene alluvium and Miocene-Pliocene tuffaceous sediments, conglomerate, and felsic volcanic rocks aggregate 2 km in thickness. Large gravity, magnetic, and total field resistivity highs probably indicate a buried igneous mass that is too old to serve as a heat source. Differing seismic velocities relate to known or inferred structures and to a suspected shallow zone of warm water. Resistivity anomalies reflect differences of both composition and degree of alteration of Cenozoic rocks. Resistivity soundings show a 2 to 5 ohm·m unit with a thickness of 1 km beneath a large part of the valley, and the unit may indicate partly hot water and partly clayey sediments. Observed self-potential anomalies are believed to indicate zones where warm water rises toward the surface. Boiling wells at Bridge, Idaho are near the intersection of north-northeast normal faults which have moved as recently as the late (?) Pleistocene, and an east-northeast structure, probably a right-lateral fault. Deep circulation of ground water in this region of relatively high heat flow and upwelling along faults is the probable cause of the thermal anomaly.

Malagasy Genetic Ancestry Comes from an Historical Malay Trading Post in Southeast Borneo.

PubMed

Brucato, Nicolas; Kusuma, Pradiptajati; Cox, Murray P; Pierron, Denis; Purnomo, Gludhug A; Adelaar, Alexander; Kivisild, Toomas; Letellier, Thierry; Sudoyo, Herawati; Ricaut, François-Xavier

2016-09-01

Malagasy genetic diversity results from an exceptional protoglobalization process that took place over a thousand years ago across the Indian Ocean. Previous efforts to locate the Asian origin of Malagasy highlighted Borneo broadly as a potential source, but so far no firm source populations were identified. Here, we have generated genome-wide data from two Southeast Borneo populations, the Banjar and the Ngaju, together with published data from populations across the Indian Ocean region. We find strong support for an origin of the Asian ancestry of Malagasy among the Banjar. This group emerged from the long-standing presence of a Malay Empire trading post in Southeast Borneo, which favored admixture between the Malay and an autochthonous Borneo group, the Ma'anyan. Reconciling genetic, historical, and linguistic data, we show that the Banjar, in Malay-led voyages, were the most probable Asian source among the analyzed groups in the founding of the Malagasy gene pool. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

S-type granitic magmas—petrogenetic issues, models and evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemens, J. D.

2003-04-01

Despite a perception that it represents a perverse divergence, it is perfectly possible to believe in the existence of S- and I-type granites (and the implications for the nature of their protoliths), and to disbelieve in the applicability of the restite-unmixing model for chemical variation in granitic magmas. White and Chappell erected the S-I classification with impeccable validity. The isotopic evidence demands contrasting source reservoirs for S- and I-type granitic magmas. However, the major advance was not the classification, but the recognition that highly contrasting parental materials must be involved in the genesis of granitic magmas. The restite-unmixing model is commonly seen as a companion to the S-I classification, but it is really a separate issue. This model implies that the compositions of granites 'image' those of their source rocks in a simple way. However, there are other equally valid models that can explain the data, and none of them represents a unique solution. The most cogent explanation for the high-grade metasedimentary enclaves in most S-type granites is that they represent mid-crustal xenoliths; restitic enclaves are either rare or absent. Inherited zircons in S-type rocks are certainly restitic. However, the occurrence of a substantial restitic zircon population does not imply an equally substantial restitic component in the rest of the rock. Zircon and zirconium behaviours are controlled by disequilibrium and kinetics, and Zr contents of granitic rocks can rarely be used to infer magma temperatures. Since the dominant ages among inherited zircons in Lachlan Fold Belt (LFB) S-type granites are Ordovician and Proterozoic, it seems likely that crust of this age, but geochemically different from the exposed rocks, not only underlies much of the LFB but also forms a component in the granite magma sources. The evidence is overwhelming that the dark, microgranular enclaves that occur in both S- and I-type granites are igneous in origin. They represent globules of quenched, more mafic magma mingled and modified by exchange with the host granitic magma. However, magma mixing does not appear to be a significant process affecting the chemical evolution of the host magmas. Likewise, the multicomponent mixing models erected for some granitic rock suites are mathematically nonunique and, in some cases, violate constraints from isotopic studies. S- and I-type magmas commonly retain their distinct identities. This suggests limited source mixing, limited magma mixing and limited wall-rock assimilation. Though intermediate types certainly exist, they are probably relatively minor in volume. Crystal fractionation probably plays the major role in the differentiation of very many granitic magmas, including most S-types, especially those emplaced at high crustal levels or in the volcanic environment. Minor mechanisms include magma mixing, wall-rock assimilation and restite unmixing. Isotopic variations within plutons and in granite suites could be caused by source heterogeneities, magma mixing, assimilation and even by isotopic disequilibrium. However, source heterogeneity, coupled with the inefficiency of magma mixing is probably the major cause of observed heterogeneity. Normal geothermal gradients are seldom sufficient to provide the necessary heat for partial melting of the crust, and crustal thickening likewise fails to provide sufficient heat. Generally, the mantle must be the major heat source. This might be provided through mantle upwelling and crustal thinning, and possibly through the intra- and underplating of mafic magmas. Upper crustal extension seems to have been common in regions undergoing granitic magmatism. Migmatites probably provide poor analogues of granite source regions because they are mostly formed by fluid-present reactions. Granitic magmas are mostly formed by fluid-absent processes. Where we do see rare evidence for arrested fluid-absent partial melting, the melt fraction is invariably concentrated into small shear zones, veinlets and small dykes. Thus, it seems likely that dyking is important in transporting granitic magma on a variety of scales and at many crustal levels. However, one major missing link in the chain is the mechanism by which melt fractions, in small-scale segregations occurring over a wide area, can be gathered and focused to efficiently feed much wider-spaced major magma conduits. Answers may lie in the geometry of the melting zones and in the tendency of younger propagating fractures to curve toward and merge with older ones. Self-organization almost certainly plays a role.

Human paleodiet and animal utilization strategies during the Bronze Age in northwest Yunnan Province, southwest China.

PubMed

Ren, Lele; Li, Xin; Kang, Lihong; Brunson, Katherine; Liu, Honggao; Dong, Weimiao; Li, Haiming; Min, Rui; Liu, Xu; Dong, Guanghui

2017-01-01

Reconstructing ancient diets and the use of animals and plants augment our understanding of how humans adapted to different environments. Yunnan Province in southwest China is ecologically and environmentally diverse. During the Neolithic and Bronze Age periods, this region was occupied by a variety of local culture groups with diverse subsistence systems and material culture. In this paper, we obtained carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotopic ratios from human and faunal remains in order to reconstruct human paleodiets and strategies for animal exploitation at the Bronze Age site of Shilinggang (ca. 2500 Cal BP) in northwest Yunnan Province. The δ13C results for human samples from Shilinggang demonstrate that people's diets were mainly dominated by C3-based foodstuffs, probably due to both direct consumption of C3 food and as a result of C3 foddering of consumed animals. Auxiliary C4 food signals can also be detected. High δ15N values indicate that meat was an important component of the diet. Analysis of faunal samples indicates that people primarily fed pigs and dogs with human food waste, while sheep/goats and cattle were foddered with other food sources. We compare stable isotope and archaeobotanical data from Shilinggang with data from other Bronze Age sites in Yunnan to explore potential regional variation in subsistence strategies. Our work suggests that people adopted different animal utilization and subsistence strategies in different parts of Yunnan during the Bronze Age period, probably as local adaptations to the highly diversified and isolated environments in the region.

Human paleodiet and animal utilization strategies during the Bronze Age in northwest Yunnan Province, southwest China

PubMed Central

Ren, Lele; Li, Xin; Kang, Lihong; Brunson, Katherine; Liu, Honggao; Dong, Weimiao; Li, Haiming; Min, Rui; Liu, Xu

2017-01-01

Reconstructing ancient diets and the use of animals and plants augment our understanding of how humans adapted to different environments. Yunnan Province in southwest China is ecologically and environmentally diverse. During the Neolithic and Bronze Age periods, this region was occupied by a variety of local culture groups with diverse subsistence systems and material culture. In this paper, we obtained carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotopic ratios from human and faunal remains in order to reconstruct human paleodiets and strategies for animal exploitation at the Bronze Age site of Shilinggang (ca. 2500 Cal BP) in northwest Yunnan Province. The δ13C results for human samples from Shilinggang demonstrate that people’s diets were mainly dominated by C3-based foodstuffs, probably due to both direct consumption of C3 food and as a result of C3 foddering of consumed animals. Auxiliary C4 food signals can also be detected. High δ15N values indicate that meat was an important component of the diet. Analysis of faunal samples indicates that people primarily fed pigs and dogs with human food waste, while sheep/goats and cattle were foddered with other food sources. We compare stable isotope and archaeobotanical data from Shilinggang with data from other Bronze Age sites in Yunnan to explore potential regional variation in subsistence strategies. Our work suggests that people adopted different animal utilization and subsistence strategies in different parts of Yunnan during the Bronze Age period, probably as local adaptations to the highly diversified and isolated environments in the region. PMID:28531221

Bivariate normal, conditional and rectangular probabilities: A computer program with applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swaroop, R.; Brownlow, J. D.; Ashwworth, G. R.; Winter, W. R.

1980-01-01

Some results for the bivariate normal distribution analysis are presented. Computer programs for conditional normal probabilities, marginal probabilities, as well as joint probabilities for rectangular regions are given: routines for computing fractile points and distribution functions are also presented. Some examples from a closed circuit television experiment are included.

Coronal Activity in Low-Mass Pre-Main Sequence Stars: NGC 2264

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tebbe, H. J.; Patten, B. M.

2000-01-01

We present the preliminary results of an analysis of ROSAT images in the region of the populous young (age approx. 3 Myr) star-forming region NGC 2264. The cluster was imaged with the ROSAT HRI in two sets of pointings -- one set near the central region of the cluster, centered on the star LW Mon, and the other set in the southern part of the cluster, centered near the star V428 Mon, just south of the Cone Nebula. In total 113 unique X-ray sources have been identified in the ROSAT images with signal-to-noise ratios greater than 3. The limiting luminosities (log Lx(ergs/sec)) for 3-sigma detections are estimated to be 30.18, 30.23, and 30.08 for the northern field, southern field, and overlap region between the two fields respectively. Extensive optical photometry, classification spectroscopy, and proper motions, obtained from recent ground-based surveys of this region, were used to identify the most likely optical counterpart to each X-ray source. Although most of our X-ray selected sample appears to be associated with NGC 2264 members, we find that the vast majority of the cluster membership was undetected in the ROSAT HRI survey. The X-ray cumulative luminosity function for solar-mass stars in NGC 2264 shows that most of the low-mass members probably have X-ray luminosities similar to those seen for the X-ray brightest members of older clusters such as IC 2391/IC 2602 (age approx. 50 Myr) and the Pleiades (age approx. 100 Myr). This research was funded in part by the SAO Summer Intern Program and NASA grant NAG5-8120.

ATLASGAL - towards a complete sample of massive star forming clumps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urquhart, J. S.; Moore, T. J. T.; Csengeri, T.; Wyrowski, F.; Schuller, F.; Hoare, M. G.; Lumsden, S. L.; Mottram, J. C.; Thompson, M. A.; Menten, K. M.; Walmsley, C. M.; Bronfman, L.; Pfalzner, S.; König, C.; Wienen, M.

2014-09-01

By matching infrared-selected, massive young stellar objects (MYSOs) and compact H II regions in the Red MSX Source survey to massive clumps found in the submillimetre ATLASGAL (APEX Telescope Large Area Survey of the Galaxy) survey, we have identified ˜1000 embedded young massive stars between 280° < ℓ < 350° and 10° < ℓ < 60° with | b | < 1.5°. Combined with an existing sample of radio-selected methanol masers and compact H II regions, the result is a catalogue of ˜1700 massive stars embedded within ˜1300 clumps located across the inner Galaxy, containing three observationally distinct subsamples, methanol-maser, MYSO and H II-region associations, covering the most important tracers of massive star formation, thought to represent key stages of evolution. We find that massive star formation is strongly correlated with the regions of highest column density in spherical, centrally condensed clumps. We find no significant differences between the three samples in clump structure or the relative location of the embedded stars, which suggests that the structure of a clump is set before the onset of star formation, and changes little as the embedded object evolves towards the main sequence. There is a strong linear correlation between clump mass and bolometric luminosity, with the most massive stars forming in the most massive clumps. We find that the MYSO and H II-region subsamples are likely to cover a similar range of evolutionary stages and that the majority are near the end of their main accretion phase. We find few infrared-bright MYSOs associated with the most massive clumps, probably due to very short pre-main-sequence lifetimes in the most luminous sources.

Indian aerosols: present status.

PubMed

Mitra, A P; Sharma, C

2002-12-01

This article presents the status of aerosols in India based on the research activities undertaken during last few decades in this region. Programs, like International Geophysical Year (IGY), Monsoon Experiment (MONEX), Indian Middle Atmospheric Program (IMAP) and recently conducted Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX), have thrown new lights on the role of aerosols in global change. INDOEX has proved that the effects of aerosols are no longer confined to the local levels but extend at regional as well as global scales due to occurrence of long range transportation of aerosols from source regions along with wind trajectories. The loading of aerosols in the atmosphere is on rising due to energy intensive activities for developmental processes and other anthropogenic activities. One of the significant observation of INDOEX is the presence of high concentrations of carbonaceous aerosols in the near persistent winter time haze layer over tropical Indian Ocean which have probably been emitted from the burning of fossil-fuels and biofuels in the source region. These have significant bearing on the radiative forcing in the region and, therefore, have potential to alter monsoon and hydrological cycles. In general, the SPM concentrations have been found to be on higher sides in ambient atmosphere in many Indian cities but the NOx concentrations have been found to be on lower side. Even in the haze layer over Indian Ocean and surrounding areas, the NOx concentrations have been reported to be low which is not conducive of O3 formation in the haze/smog layer. The acid rain problem does not seem to exist at the moment in India because of the presence of neutralizing soil dust in the atmosphere. But the high particulate concentrations in most of the cities' atmosphere in India are of concern as it can cause deteriorated health conditions.

QUANTIFYING THE REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MINE DRAINAGE ON STREAM ECOLOGICAL CONDITION IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES FROM PROBABILITY SURVEY DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Runoff from both active and inactive metal mining has contaminated waters and sediments in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion. In 1994 and 1995, as part of its Regional Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (REMAP), the USEPA conducted a probability survey of wadeable stre...

Validity of ambient levels of fine particles as surrogate for personal exposure to outdoor air pollution--results of the European EXPOLIS-EAS Study (Swiss Center Basel).

PubMed

Oglesby, L; Künzli, N; Röösli, M; Braun-Fahrländer, C; Mathys, P; Stern, W; Jantunen, M; Kousa, A

2000-07-01

To evaluate the validity of fixed-site fine particle levels as exposure surrogates in air pollution epidemiology, we considered four indicator groups: (1) PM2.5 total mass concentrations, (2) sulfur and potassium for regional air pollution, (3) lead and bromine for traffic-related particles, and (4) calcium for crustal particles. Using data from the European EXPOLIS (Air Pollution Exposure Distribution within Adult Urban Populations in Europe) study, we assessed the associations between 48-hr personal exposures and home outdoor levels of the indicators. Furthermore, within-city variability of fine particle levels was evaluated. Personal exposures to PM2.5 mass were not correlated to corresponding home outdoor levels (n = 44, rSpearman (Sp) = 0.07). In the group reporting neither relevant indoor sources nor relevant activities, personal exposures and home outdoor levels of sulfur were highly correlated (n = 40, rSp = 0.85). In contrast, the associations were weaker for traffic (Pb: n = 44, rSp = 0.53; Br: n = 44, rSp = 0.21) and crustal (Ca: n = 44, rSp = 0.12) indicators. This contrast is consistent with spatially homogeneous regional pollution and higher spatial variability of traffic and crustal indicators observed in Basel, Switzerland. We conclude that for regional air pollution, fixed-site fine particle levels are valid exposure surrogates. For source-specific exposures, however, fixed-site data are probably not the optimal measure. Still, in air pollution epidemiology, ambient PM2.5 levels may be more appropriate exposure estimates than total personal PM2.5 exposure, since the latter reflects a mixture of indoor and outdoor sources.

Validity of Ambient Levels of Fine Particles as Surrogate for Personal Exposure to Outdoor Air Pollution-Results of the European EXPOLIS-EAS Study (Swiss Center Basel).

PubMed

Oglesby, Lucy; Künzli, Nino; Röösli, Martin; Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte; Mathys, Patrick; Stern, Willem; Jantunen, Matti; Kousa, Anu

2000-07-01

To evaluate the validity of fixed-site fine particle levels as exposure surrogates in air pollution epidemiology, we considered four indicator groups: (1) PM 25 total mass concentrations, (2) sulfur and potassium for regional air pollution, (3) lead and bromine for traffic-related particles, and (4) calcium for crustal particles. Using data from the European EXPOLIS (Air Pollution Exposure Distribution within Adult Urban Populations in Europe) study, we assessed the associations between 48-hr personal exposures and home outdoor levels of the indicators. Furthermore, within-city variability of fine particle levels was evaluated. Personal exposures to PM 2.5 mass were not correlated to corresponding home outdoor levels (n = 44, r S (S) =r o v ' Spearman (Sp) 0.07). In the group reporting neither relevant indoor sources nor relevant activities, personal exposures and home outdoor levels of sulfur were highly correlated (n = 40, r Sp = 0.85). In contrast, the associations were weaker for traffic (Pb: n = 44, r Sp = 0.53; Br: n = 44, r Sp = 0.21) and crustal (Ca: n = 44, r Sp = 0.12) indicators. This contrast is consistent with spatially homogeneous regional pollution and higher spatial variability of traffic and crustal indicators observed in Basel, Switzerland. We conclude that for regional air pollution, fixed-site fine particle levels are valid exposure surrogates. For source-specific exposures, however, fixed-site data are probably not the optimal measure. Still, in air pollution epidemiology, ambient PM 2.5 levels may be more appropriate exposure estimates than total personal PM 2.5 exposure, since the latter reflects a mixture of indoor and outdoor sources.

Trends in atmospheric particulate matter in Dhaka, Bangladesh, and the vicinity.

PubMed

Rana, Md Masud; Sulaiman, Norela; Sivertsen, Bjarne; Khan, Md Firoz; Nasreen, Sabera

2016-09-01

Dhaka and its neighboring areas suffer from severe air pollution, especially during dry season (November-April). We investigated temporal and directional variations in particulate matter (PM) concentrations in Dhaka, Gazipur, and Narayanganj from October 2012 to March 2015 to understand different aspects of PM concentrations and possible sources of high pollution in this region. Ninety-six-hour backward trajectories for the whole dry season were also computed to investigate incursion of long-range pollution into this area. We found yearly PM10 concentrations in this area about three times and yearly PM2.5 concentrations about six times greater than the national standards of Bangladesh. Dhaka and its vicinity experienced several air pollution episodes in dry season when PM2.5 concentrations were 8-13 times greater than the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline value. Higher pollution and great contribution of PM2.5 most of the time were associated with the north-westerly wind. Winter (November to January) was found as the most polluted season in this area, when average PM10 concentrations in Dhaka, Gazipur, and Narayanganj were 257.1, 240.3, and 327.4 μg m(-3), respectively. Pollution levels during wet season (May-October) were, although found legitimate as per the national standards of Bangladesh, exceeded WHO guideline value in 50 % of the days of that season. Trans-boundary source identifications using concentration-weighted trajectory method revealed that the sources in the eastern Indian region bordering Bangladesh, in the north-eastern Indian region bordering Nepal and in Nepal and its neighboring areas had high probability of contributing to the PM pollutions at Gazipur station.

SUN-TO-EARTH CHARACTERISTICS OF THE 2012 JULY 12 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND ASSOCIATED GEO-EFFECTIVENESS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Huidong; Liu, Ying D.; Wang, Rui

We analyze multi-spacecraft observations associated with the 2012 July 12 coronal mass ejection (CME), covering the source region on the Sun from the Solar Dynamics Observatory , stereoscopic imaging observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory ( STEREO ), magnetic field characteristics from Mercury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry, and Ranging ( MESSENGER ), and type II radio burst and in situ measurements from Wind . A triangulation method based on STEREO stereoscopic observations is employed to determine the kinematics of the CME, and the outcome is compared with the results derived from the type II radio burst using a solarmore » wind electron density model. A Grad–Shafranov technique is applied to Wind in situ data to reconstruct the flux-rope structure and compare it with the observations of the solar source region, which helps in understanding the geo-effectiveness associated with the CME structure. Our conclusions are as follows: (1) the CME undergoes an impulsive acceleration, a rapid deceleration before reaching MESSENGER , and then a gradual deceleration out to 1 au, which should be considered in CME kinematics models; (2) the type II radio burst was probably produced from a high-density interaction region between the CME-driven shock and a nearby streamer or from the shock flank with lower heights, which implies uncertainties in the determination of CME kinematics using solely type II radio bursts; (3) the flux-rope orientation and chirality deduced from in situ reconstructions at Wind agree with those obtained from solar source observations; (4) the prolonged southward magnetic field near the Earth is mainly from the axial component of the largely southward inclined flux rope, which indicates the importance of predicting both the flux-rope orientation and magnetic field components in geomagnetic activity forecasting.« less

Predicted sequence of cortical tau and amyloid-β deposition in Alzheimer disease spectrum.

PubMed

Cho, Hanna; Lee, Hye Sun; Choi, Jae Yong; Lee, Jae Hoon; Ryu, Young Hoon; Lee, Myung Sik; Lyoo, Chul Hyoung

2018-04-17

We investigated sequential order between tau and amyloid-β (Aβ) deposition in Alzheimer disease spectrum using a conditional probability method. Two hundred twenty participants underwent 18 F-flortaucipir and 18 F-florbetaben positron emission tomography scans and neuropsychological tests. The presence of tau and Aβ in each region and impairment in each cognitive domain were determined by Z-score cutoffs. By comparing pairs of conditional probabilities, the sequential order of tau and Aβ deposition were determined. Probability for the presence of tau in the entorhinal cortex was higher than that of Aβ in all cortical regions, and in the medial temporal cortices, probability for the presence of tau was higher than that of Aβ. Conversely, in the remaining neocortex above the inferior temporal cortex, probability for the presence of Aβ was always higher than that of tau. Tau pathology in the entorhinal cortex may appear earlier than neocortical Aβ and may spread in the absence of Aβ within the neighboring medial temporal regions. However, Aβ may be required for massive tau deposition in the distant cortical areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A New Self-Constrained Inversion Method of Potential Fields Based on Probability Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, S.; Chen, C.; WANG, H.; Wang, Q.

2014-12-01

The self-constrained inversion method of potential fields uses a priori information self-extracted from potential field data. Differing from external a priori information, the self-extracted information are generally parameters derived exclusively from the analysis of the gravity and magnetic data (Paoletti et al., 2013). Here we develop a new self-constrained inversion method based on probability tomography. Probability tomography doesn't need any priori information, as well as large inversion matrix operations. Moreover, its result can describe the sources, especially the distribution of which is complex and irregular, entirely and clearly. Therefore, we attempt to use the a priori information extracted from the probability tomography results to constrain the inversion for physical properties. The magnetic anomaly data was taken as an example in this work. The probability tomography result of magnetic total field anomaly(ΔΤ) shows a smoother distribution than the anomalous source and cannot display the source edges exactly. However, the gradients of ΔΤ are with higher resolution than ΔΤ in their own direction, and this characteristic is also presented in their probability tomography results. So we use some rules to combine the probability tomography results of ∂ΔΤ⁄∂x, ∂ΔΤ⁄∂y and ∂ΔΤ⁄∂z into a new result which is used for extracting a priori information, and then incorporate the information into the model objective function as spatial weighting functions to invert the final magnetic susceptibility. Some magnetic synthetic examples incorporated with and without a priori information extracted from the probability tomography results were made to do comparison, results of which show that the former are more concentrated and with higher resolution of the source body edges. This method is finally applied in an iron mine in China with field measured ΔΤ data and performs well. ReferencesPaoletti, V., Ialongo, S., Florio, G., Fedi, M. & Cella, F., 2013. Self-constrained inversion of potential fields, Geophys J Int.This research is supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for Institute for Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences (Grant Nos. WHS201210 and WHS201211).

Detection of adenoviruses and rotaviruses in drinking water sources used in rural areas of Benin, West Africa.

PubMed

Verheyen, Jens; Timmen-Wego, Monika; Laudien, Rainer; Boussaad, Ibrahim; Sen, Sibel; Koc, Aynur; Uesbeck, Alexandra; Mazou, Farouk; Pfister, Herbert

2009-05-01

Diseases associated with viruses also found in environmental samples cause major health problems in developing countries. Little is known about the frequency and pattern of viral contamination of drinking water sources in these resource-poor settings. We established a method to analyze 10 liters of water from drinking water sources in a rural area of Benin for the presence of adenoviruses and rotaviruses. Overall, 541 samples from 287 drinking water sources were tested. A total of 12.9% of the sources were positive for adenoviruses and 2.1% of the sources were positive for rotaviruses at least once. Due to the temporary nature of viral contamination in drinking water sources, the probability of virus detection increased with the number of samples taken at one test site over time. No seasonal pattern for viral contaminations was found after samples obtained during the dry and wet seasons were compared. Overall, 3 of 15 surface water samples (20%) and 35 of 247 wells (14.2%) but also 2 of 25 pumps (8%) tested positive for adenoviruses or rotaviruses. The presence of latrines within a radius of 50 m in the vicinity of pumps or wells was identified as being a risk factor for virus detection. In summary, viral contamination was correlated with the presence of latrines in the vicinity of drinking water sources, indicating the importance of appropriate decision support systems in these socioeconomic prospering regions.

New Concepts in the Evaluation of Biodegradation/Persistence of Chemical Substances Using a Microbial Inoculum

PubMed Central

Thouand, Gérald; Durand, Marie-José; Maul, Armand; Gancet, Christian; Blok, Han

2011-01-01

The European REACH Regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization of CHemical substances) implies, among other things, the evaluation of the biodegradability of chemical substances produced by industry. A large set of test methods is available including detailed information on the appropriate conditions for testing. However, the inoculum used for these tests constitutes a “black box.” If biodegradation is achievable from the growth of a small group of specific microbial species with the substance as the only carbon source, the result of the test depends largely on the cell density of this group at “time zero.” If these species are relatively rare in an inoculum that is normally used, the likelihood of inoculating a test with sufficient specific cells becomes a matter of probability. Normally this probability increases with total cell density and with the diversity of species in the inoculum. Furthermore the history of the inoculum, e.g., a possible pre-exposure to the test substance or similar substances will have a significant influence on the probability. A high probability can be expected for substances that are widely used and regularly released into the environment, whereas a low probability can be expected for new xenobiotic substances that have not yet been released into the environment. Be that as it may, once the inoculum sample contains sufficient specific degraders, the performance of the biodegradation will follow a typical S shaped growth curve which depends on the specific growth rate under laboratory conditions, the so called F/M ratio (ratio between food and biomass) and the more or less toxic recalcitrant, but possible, metabolites. Normally regulators require the evaluation of the growth curve using a simple approach such as half-time. Unfortunately probability and biodegradation half-time are very often confused. As the half-time values reflect laboratory conditions which are quite different from environmental conditions (after a substance is released), these values should not be used to quantify and predict environmental behavior. The probability value could be of much greater benefit for predictions under realistic conditions. The main issue in the evaluation of probability is that the result is not based on a single inoculum from an environmental sample, but on a variety of samples. These samples can be representative of regional or local areas, climate regions, water types, and history, e.g., pristine or polluted. The above concept has provided us with a new approach, namely “Probabio.” With this approach, persistence is not only regarded as a simple intrinsic property of a substance, but also as the capability of various environmental samples to degrade a substance under realistic exposure conditions and F/M ratio. PMID:21863143

A Mainly Circum-Mediterranean Origin for West Eurasian and North African mtDNAs in Puerto Rico with Strong Contributions from the Canary Islands and West Africa.

PubMed

Díaz-Zabala, Héctor J; Nieves-Colón, María A; Martínez-Cruzado, Juan C

2017-04-01

Maternal lineages of West Eurasian and North African origin account for 11.5% of total mitochondrial ancestry in Puerto Rico. Historical sources suggest that this ancestry arrived mostly from European migrations that took place during the four centuries of the Spanish colonization of Puerto Rico. This study analyzed 101 mitochondrial control region sequences and diagnostic coding region variants from a sample set randomly and systematically selected using a census-based sampling frame to be representative of the Puerto Rican population, with the goal of defining West Eurasian-North African maternal clades and estimating their possible geographical origin. Median-joining haplotype networks were constructed using hypervariable regions 1 and 2 sequences from various reference populations in search of shared haplotypes. A posterior probability analysis was performed to estimate the percentage of possible origins across wide geographic regions for the entire sample set and for the most common haplogroups on the island. Principal component analyses were conducted to place the Puerto Rican mtDNA set within the variation present among all reference populations. Our study shows that up to 38% of West Eurasian and North African mitochondrial ancestry in Puerto Rico most likely migrated from the Canary Islands. However, most of those haplotypes had previously migrated to the Canary Islands from elsewhere, and there are substantial contributions from various populations across the circum-Mediterranean region and from West African populations related to the modern Wolof and Serer peoples from Senegal and the nomad Fulani who extend up to Cameroon. In conclusion, the West Eurasian mitochondrial ancestry in Puerto Ricans is geographically diverse. However, haplotype diversity seems to be low, and frequencies have been shaped by population bottlenecks, migration waves, and random genetic drift. Consequently, approximately 47% of mtDNAs of West Eurasian and North African ancestry in Puerto Rico probably arrived early in its colonial history.

Star formation history of Canis Major OB1. II. A bimodal X-ray population revealed by XMM-Newton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos-Silva, T.; Gregorio-Hetem, J.; Montmerle, T.; Fernandes, B.; Stelzer, B.

2018-02-01

Aims: The Canis Major OB1 Association has an intriguing scenario of star formation, especially in the region called Canis Major R1 (CMa R1) traditionally assigned to a reflection nebula, but in reality an ionized region. This work is focussed on the young stellar population associated with CMa R1, for which our previous results from ROSAT, optical, and near-infrared data had revealed two stellar groups with different ages, suggesting a possible mixing of populations originated from distinct star formation episodes. Methods: The X-ray data allow the detected sources to be characterized according to hardness ratios, light curves, and spectra. Estimates of mass and age were obtained from the 2MASS catalogue and used to define a complete subsample of stellar counterparts for statistical purposes. Results: A catalogue of 387 XMM-Newton sources is provided, of which 78% are confirmed as members or probable members of the CMa R1 association. Flares (or similar events) were observed for 13 sources and the spectra of 21 bright sources could be fitted by a thermal plasma model. Mean values of fits parameters were used to estimate X-ray luminosities. We found a minimum value of log(LX [erg/s] ) = 29.43, indicating that our sample of low-mass stars (M⋆ ≤ 0.5 M⊙), which are faint X-ray emitters, is incomplete. Among the 250 objects selected as our complete subsample (defining our "best sample"), 171 are found to the east of the cloud, near Z CMa and dense molecular gas, of which 50% of them are young (<5 Myr) and 30% are older (>10 Myr). The opposite happens to the west, near GU CMa, in areas lacking molecular gas: among 79 objects, 30% are young and 50% are older. These findings confirm that a first episode of distributed star formation occurred in the whole studied region 10 Myr ago and dispersed the molecular gas, while a second, localized episode (<5 Myr) took place in the regions where molecular gas is still present.

Statistical tests for whether a given set of independent, identically distributed draws comes from a specified probability density.

PubMed

Tygert, Mark

2010-09-21

We discuss several tests for determining whether a given set of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) draws does not come from a specified probability density function. The most commonly used are Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, particularly Kuiper's variant, which focus on discrepancies between the cumulative distribution function for the specified probability density and the empirical cumulative distribution function for the given set of i.i.d. draws. Unfortunately, variations in the probability density function often get smoothed over in the cumulative distribution function, making it difficult to detect discrepancies in regions where the probability density is small in comparison with its values in surrounding regions. We discuss tests without this deficiency, complementing the classical methods. The tests of the present paper are based on the plain fact that it is unlikely to draw a random number whose probability is small, provided that the draw is taken from the same distribution used in calculating the probability (thus, if we draw a random number whose probability is small, then we can be confident that we did not draw the number from the same distribution used in calculating the probability).

Assessing flight safety differences between the United States regional and major airlines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharp, Broderick H.

During 2008, the U.S. domestic airline departures exceeded 28,000 flights per day. Thirty-nine or less than 0.2 of 1% of these flights resulted in operational incidents or accidents. However, even a low percentage of airline accidents and incidents continue to cause human suffering and property loss. The charge of this study was the comparison of U.S. major and regional airline safety histories. The study spans safety events from January 1982 through December 2008. In this quantitative analysis, domestic major and regional airlines were statistically tested for their flight safety differences. Four major airlines and thirty-seven regional airlines qualified for the safety study which compared the airline groups' fatal accidents, incidents, non-fatal accidents, pilot errors, and the remaining six safety event probable cause types. The six other probable cause types are mechanical failure, weather, air traffic control, maintenance, other, and unknown causes. The National Transportation Safety Board investigated each airline safety event, and assigned a probable cause to each event. A sample of 500 events was randomly selected from the 1,391 airlines' accident and incident population. The airline groups' safety event probabilities were estimated using the least squares linear regression. A probability significance level of 5% was chosen to conclude the appropriate research question hypothesis. The airline fatal accidents and incidents probability levels were 1.2% and 0.05% respectively. These two research questions did not reach the 5% significance level threshold. Therefore, the airline groups' fatal accidents and non-destructive incidents probabilities favored the airline groups' safety differences hypothesis. The linear progression estimates for the remaining three research questions were 71.5% for non-fatal accidents, 21.8% for the pilot errors, and 7.4% significance level for the six probable causes. These research questions' linear regressions are greater than the 5% level. Consequently, these three research questions favored airline groups' safety similarities hypothesis. The study indicates the U.S. domestic major airlines were safer than the regional airlines. Ideas for potential airline safety progress can examine pilot fatigue, the airline groups' hiring policies, the government's airline oversight personnel, or the comparison of individual airline's operational policies.

Developing framework to constrain the geometry of the seismic rupture plane on subduction interfaces a priori - A probabilistic approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, G.P.; Wald, D.J.

2009-01-01

A key step in many earthquake source inversions requires knowledge of the geometry of the fault surface on which the earthquake occurred. Our knowledge of this surface is often uncertain, however, and as a result fault geometry misinterpretation can map into significant error in the final temporal and spatial slip patterns of these inversions. Relying solely on an initial hypocentre and CMT mechanism can be problematic when establishing rupture characteristics needed for rapid tsunami and ground shaking estimates. Here, we attempt to improve the quality of fast finite-fault inversion results by combining several independent and complementary data sets to more accurately constrain the geometry of the seismic rupture plane of subducting slabs. Unlike previous analyses aimed at defining the general form of the plate interface, we require mechanisms and locations of the seismicity considered in our inversions to be consistent with their occurrence on the plate interface, by limiting events to those with well-constrained depths and with CMT solutions indicative of shallow-dip thrust faulting. We construct probability density functions about each location based on formal assumptions of their depth uncertainty and use these constraints to solve for the ‘most-likely’ fault plane. Examples are shown for the trench in the source region of the Mw 8.6 Southern Sumatra earthquake of March 2005, and for the Northern Chile Trench in the source region of the November 2007 Antofagasta earthquake. We also show examples using only the historic catalogues in regions without recent great earthquakes, such as the Japan and Kamchatka Trenches. In most cases, this method produces a fault plane that is more consistent with all of the data available than is the plane implied by the initial hypocentre and CMT mechanism. Using the aggregated data sets, we have developed an algorithm to rapidly determine more accurate initial fault plane geometries for source inversions of future earthquakes.

Probabilistic forecasts of debris-flow hazard at the regional scale with a combination of models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malet, Jean-Philippe; Remaître, Alexandre

2015-04-01

Debris flows are one of the many active slope-forming processes in the French Alps, where rugged and steep slopes mantled by various slope deposits offer a great potential for triggering hazardous events. A quantitative assessment of debris-flow hazard requires the estimation, in a probabilistic framework, of the spatial probability of occurrence of source areas, the spatial probability of runout areas, the temporal frequency of events, and their intensity. The main objective of this research is to propose a pipeline for the estimation of these quantities at the region scale using a chain of debris-flow models. The work uses the experimental site of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), where 26 active torrents have produced more than 150 debris-flow events since 1850 to develop and validate the methodology. First, a susceptibility assessment is performed to identify the debris-flow prone source areas. The most frequently used approach is the combination of environmental factors with GIS procedures and statistical techniques, integrating or not, detailed event inventories. Based on a 5m-DEM and derivatives, and information on slope lithology, engineering soils and landcover, the possible source areas are identified with a statistical logistic regression model. The performance of the statistical model is evaluated with the observed distribution of debris-flow events recorded after 1850 in the study area. The source areas in the three most active torrents (Riou-Bourdoux, Faucon, Sanières) are well identified by the model. Results are less convincing for three other active torrents (Bourget, La Valette and Riou-Chanal); this could be related to the type of debris-flow triggering mechanism as the model seems to better spot the open slope debris-flow source areas (e.g. scree slopes), but appears to be less efficient for the identification of landslide-induced debris flows. Second, a susceptibility assessment is performed to estimate the possible runout distance with a process-based model. The MassMov-2D code is a two-dimensional model of mud and debris flow dynamics over complex topography, based on a numerical integration of the depth-averaged motion equations using shallow water approximation. The run-out simulations are performed for the most active torrents. The performance of the model has been evaluated by comparing modelling results with the observed spreading areas of several recent debris flows. Existing data on the debris flow volume, input discharge and deposits were used to back-analyze those events and estimate the values of the model parameters. Third, hazard is estimated on the basis of scenarios computed in a probabilistic way, for volumes in the range 20'000 to 350'000 m3, and for several combinations of rheological parameters. In most cases, the simulations indicate that the debris flows cause significant overflowing on the alluvial fans for volumes exceeding 100'000 m3 (height of deposits > 2 m, velocities > 5 m.s-1). Probabilities of debris flow runout and debris flow intensities are then computed for each terrain units.

Landscape of α preformation probability for even-even nuclei in medium mass region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Yibin; Ren, Zhongzhou

2018-03-01

The behavior of α cluster preformation probability, in α decay, is a rich source of the structural information, such as the clustering, pairing, and shell evolution in heavy nuclei. Meanwhile, the experimental α decay data have been very recently compiled in the newest table NUBASE2016. Through a least square fit to the available experimental data of nuclear charge radii plus the neutron skin thickness, we obtain a new set of parameters for the two-parameter Fermi nucleon density distributions in target nuclei. Subsequently, we make use of these refreshed inputs, involved in the density-dependent cluster model, to extract α preformation factor ({P}α ) for a large range of medium α emitters with N < 126 from the newest data table. Besides checking the supposed smooth pattern of P α in the open-shell region, the special attention has been paid to those exotic α-decaying nuclei around the Z = 50 and N = 82 shell closures. Moreover, the correlation between the α preformation factor and the microscopic correction of nuclear mass, corresponding to the effect of shell and pairing plus deformation, is in particular investigated, to pursue the valuable knowledge of the P α pattern over the nuclide chart. The feature of α preformation factor along with the neutron-proton asymmetry is then detected and discussed to some extent.

Availability and chemistry of ground water on the Bruneau Plateau and adjacent eastern plain in Twin Falls County, south-central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moffatt, R.L.; Jones, M.L.

1984-01-01

The Bruneau plateau in south-central Idaho consists of about 889 ,600 acres of potentially irrigable land. About 112,200 of these acres have been developed for agriculture; 11,200 acres are irrigated with ground water, and the remaining acreage is irrigated with water from the Snake and Bruneau rivers and Salmon Falls Creek. On the basis of present usage, about 158,000 acre-feet of water per year are needed to develop an additional 63,000 acres. About 438,000 acre-feet per year are needed to irrigate existing and newly developed lands in dry years when streamflow in the Snake River at Milner Dam is inadequate to meet appropriated needs. Pumping lifts of about 400-600 feet and low well yields on the Bruneau plateau probably preclude large-scale irrigation development solely from local ground-water resources. However, supplemental sources of irrigation water are available from a perched-water aquifer, a thermal aquifer, and the regional aquifer adjacent to the plateau. About 100,000-115,000 acre-feet per year of water probably could be withdrawn from the perched and regional aquifers and conveyed to the plateau without serious impact on local ground-water resources. The amount of water that could be safely withdrawn from the thermal aquifer was not determined. (USGS)

Bright radio emission from an ultraluminous stellar-mass microquasar in M 31.

PubMed

Middleton, Matthew J; Miller-Jones, James C A; Markoff, Sera; Fender, Rob; Henze, Martin; Hurley-Walker, Natasha; Scaife, Anna M M; Roberts, Timothy P; Walton, Dominic; Carpenter, John; Macquart, Jean-Pierre; Bower, Geoffrey C; Gurwell, Mark; Pietsch, Wolfgang; Haberl, Frank; Harris, Jonathan; Daniel, Michael; Miah, Junayd; Done, Chris; Morgan, John S; Dickinson, Hugh; Charles, Phil; Burwitz, Vadim; Della Valle, Massimo; Freyberg, Michael; Greiner, Jochen; Hernanz, Margarita; Hartmann, Dieter H; Hatzidimitriou, Despina; Riffeser, Arno; Sala, Gloria; Seitz, Stella; Reig, Pablo; Rau, Arne; Orio, Marina; Titterington, David; Grainge, Keith

2013-01-10

A subset of ultraluminous X-ray sources (those with luminosities of less than 10(40) erg s(-1); ref. 1) are thought to be powered by the accretion of gas onto black holes with masses of ∼5-20M cicled dot, probably by means of an accretion disk. The X-ray and radio emission are coupled in such Galactic sources; the radio emission originates in a relativistic jet thought to be launched from the innermost regions near the black hole, with the most powerful emission occurring when the rate of infalling matter approaches a theoretical maximum (the Eddington limit). Only four such maximal sources are known in the Milky Way, and the absorption of soft X-rays in the interstellar medium hinders the determination of the causal sequence of events that leads to the ejection of the jet. Here we report radio and X-ray observations of a bright new X-ray source in the nearby galaxy M 31, whose peak luminosity exceeded 10(39) erg s(-1). The radio luminosity is extremely high and shows variability on a timescale of tens of minutes, arguing that the source is highly compact and powered by accretion close to the Eddington limit onto a black hole of stellar mass. Continued radio and X-ray monitoring of such sources should reveal the causal relationship between the accretion flow and the powerful jet emission.

Hubble Space Telescope NICMOS Polarization Measurements of OMC-1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, Janet P.; Colgan, Sean W. J.; Erickson, Edwin F.; Burton, Michael G.; Schultz, A. S. B.

2006-01-01

We present 2 micrometer polarization measurements of positions in the BN region of the Orion Molecular Cloud (OMC-1) made with NICMOS Camera 2 (0.2" resolution) on Hubble Space Telescope. Our goals are to seek the sources of heating for IRc2, 3, 4, and 7, identify possible young stellar objects (YSOs), and characterize the grain alignment in the dust clouds along the lines-of-sight to the stars. Our results are as follows: BN is approximately 29% polarized by dichroic absorption and appears to be the illuminating source for most of the nebulosity to its north and up to approximately 5" to its south. Although the stars are probably all polarized by dichroic absorption, there are a number of compact, but non-point-source, objects that could be polarized by a combination of both dichroic absorption and local scattering of star light. We identify several candidate YSOs, including an approximately edge-on bipolar YSO 8.7" east of BN, and a deeply-embedded IRc7, all of which are obviously self-luminous at mid-infrared wavelengths and may be YSOs. None of these is a reflection nebula illuminated by a star located near radio source I, as was previously suggested. Other IRc sources are clearly reflection nebulae: IRc3 appears to be illuminated by IRc2-B or a combination of the IRc2 sources, and IRc4 and IRc5 appear to be illuminated by an unseen star in the vicinity of radio source I, or by Star n or IRc2-A. Trends in the magnetic field direction are inferred from the polarization of the 26 stars that are bright enough to be seen as NICMOS point sources. Their polarization ranges from N less than or equal to 1% (all stars with this low polarization are optically visible) to greater than 40%. The most polarized star has a polarization position angle different from its neighbors by approximately 40 degrees, but in agreement with the grain alignment inferred from millimeter polarization measurements of the cold dust cloud in the southern part of OMC-1. The polarization position angle of another highly-polarized, probable star also requires a grain alignment and magnetic field orientation substantially different from the general magnetic field orientation of OMC-1.

Geotechnical parameter spatial distribution stochastic analysis based on multi-precision information assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Rubin, Y.

2014-12-01

Spatial distribution of important geotechnical parameter named compression modulus Es contributes considerably to the understanding of the underlying geological processes and the adequate assessment of the Es mechanics effects for differential settlement of large continuous structure foundation. These analyses should be derived using an assimilating approach that combines in-situ static cone penetration test (CPT) with borehole experiments. To achieve such a task, the Es distribution of stratum of silty clay in region A of China Expo Center (Shanghai) is studied using the Bayesian-maximum entropy method. This method integrates rigorously and efficiently multi-precision of different geotechnical investigations and sources of uncertainty. Single CPT samplings were modeled as a rational probability density curve by maximum entropy theory. Spatial prior multivariate probability density function (PDF) and likelihood PDF of the CPT positions were built by borehole experiments and the potential value of the prediction point, then, preceding numerical integration on the CPT probability density curves, the posterior probability density curve of the prediction point would be calculated by the Bayesian reverse interpolation framework. The results were compared between Gaussian Sequential Stochastic Simulation and Bayesian methods. The differences were also discussed between single CPT samplings of normal distribution and simulated probability density curve based on maximum entropy theory. It is shown that the study of Es spatial distributions can be improved by properly incorporating CPT sampling variation into interpolation process, whereas more informative estimations are generated by considering CPT Uncertainty for the estimation points. Calculation illustrates the significance of stochastic Es characterization in a stratum, and identifies limitations associated with inadequate geostatistical interpolation techniques. This characterization results will provide a multi-precision information assimilation method of other geotechnical parameters.

Hepatitis E Virus Exposure is Increased in Pork Butchers from Burkina Faso

PubMed Central

Traoré, Kuan Abdoulaye; Ouoba, Jean Bienvenue; Huot, Nicolas; Rogée, Sophie; Dumarest, Marine; Traoré, Alfred S.; Pavio, Nicole; Barro, Nicolas; Roques, Pierre

2015-01-01

We conducted the first survey of zoonotic risk of Hepatitis E virus (HEV) transmissions in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, through the direct contact with pork meat during professional activity. Anti-HEV antibodies were more prevalent in pork butchers, 76% than in the general population, which was 47.8% in 2013 (odds ratio = 3.46, 95% CI = 2.85–4.21, P < 0.001). Among slaughter-aged swine, HEV seroprevalence was of 80%, and HEV RNA was detected in 1% of pork livers. Phylogenetic analysis pointed out HEV genotype 3. Thus, in addition to possible HEV contamination through the water source, as in endemic region, zoonotic transmissions of HEV probably occur in west Africa. PMID:26438027

Influences of roads and development on bird communities in protected Chihuahuan Desert landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.

2003-01-01

Our objective was to improve knowledge about effects of broad-scale road and development variables on bird communities in protected desert landscapes. Bird species richness and the relative abundance or probability of occurrence of many species were significantly associated with total length of roads within each of two spatial extents (1- and 2-km radii), distance to the nearest road, distance to the nearest development, or the two-way interactions of these variables. Regression models reflected non-linear relations, interaction effects, spatial-extent effects, and interannual variation. Road and development effects warrant special attention in protected areas because such places may be important sources of indigenous bird communities in a region.

Aerosol formation and distribution in the Arctic during AGASP-II, March-April 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnell, Russell C.; Kahl, Jonathan D.; Herbert, Gary A.; Bodhaine, B. A.; Bridgman, Howard A.

1988-01-01

The Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program has undertaken the determination of the distribution, transport, chemistry, aerosol physics, and radiative effects of the 'Arctic haze' air-pollution phenomenon. Attention has been given the April 2-3, 1986 haze zone, with large condensation nuclei, SO2, and soot-carbon concentrations, which appeared near the Barrow Baseline Station. The composite trajectory of the haze zone has been determined, as has its probable source region. After travelling 10,000 km, the haze still had SO2, aerosol black carbon, and condensation nuclei concentrations in excess of those measured off the East Coast of the U.S. in January of the same year.

Multidisciplinary fingerprints: forensic reconstruction of an insect reinvasion

PubMed Central

Kim, Kyung Seok; Jones, Gretchen D.; Westbrook, John K.; Sappington, Thomas W.

2010-01-01

An unexpected outbreak of boll weevils, Anthonomus grandis, an insect pest of cotton, across the Southern Rolling Plains (SRP) eradication zone of west-central Texas, USA, was detected soon after passage of Tropical Storm Erin through the Winter Garden district to the south on 16 August 2007. The synchrony and broad geographic distribution of the captured weevils suggest that long-distance dispersal was responsible for the reinvasion. We integrated three types of assessment to reconstruct the geographic origin of the immigrants: (i) DNA fingerprinting; (ii) pollen fingerprinting; and (iii) atmospheric trajectory analysis. We hypothesized the boll weevils originated in the Southern Blacklands zone near Cameron, or in the Winter Garden district near Uvalde, the nearest regions with substantial populations. Genetic tests broadly agree that the immigrants originated southeast of the SRP zone, probably in regions represented by Uvalde or Weslaco. The SRP pollen profile from weevils matched that of Uvalde better than that of Cameron. Wind trajectories supported daily wind-aided dispersal of weevils from the Uvalde region to the SRP from 17 to 24 August, but failed to support migration from the Cameron region. Taken together the forensic evidence strongly implicates the Winter Garden district near Uvalde as the source of reinvading boll weevils. PMID:19828497

Sweat osmolarity shows intra-animal regional variation in the horse.

PubMed

Potts, Samantha; Thatcher, Rhys; Jones, Arwel W; Warren, Lori K; Tenbroeck, Saundra H; Nottage, Florence; McEwan, Neil R

2015-10-01

Sweating is important in regulating body temperature but can be a source of loss of both fluids and electrolytes. Although the process has been studied in horses, the variation in sweat osmolarity across the body has not. This work describes an investigation to determine if there is regional variation in the osmolarity of sweat across different anatomical regions of the horse. Ten horses were used in the study and were animals either stabled for riding lessons or had livery on-site. Sweat samples were collected from five regions on each horse following exercise and the osmolarity measurements were made using an Osmomat 030 (Gonotec, Berlin, Germany). Values were analysed by paired t-tests and analysis of variance. Samples from the back and ears had statistically (P < 0.05) lower osmolarity values than those seen for the neck and forelimb, with thigh values intermediate between the other two sets of values. Previous studies have used osmolarity values based on the sweat collected from the horse's back. The current work demonstrates that these values are probably an underestimation of electrolyte loss, which may have implications for the composition and administration of rehydration compounds. © 2015 ESVD and ACVD.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance probability discharges for streams in Arkansas, based on data through water year 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Daniel M.; Krieger, Joshua D.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2016-08-04

In 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a study to update regional skew, annual exceedance probability discharges, and regional regression equations used to estimate annual exceedance probability discharges for ungaged locations on streams in the study area with the use of recent geospatial data, new analytical methods, and available annual peak-discharge data through the 2013 water year. An analysis of regional skew using Bayesian weighted least-squares/Bayesian generalized-least squares regression was performed for Arkansas, Louisiana, and parts of Missouri and Oklahoma. The newly developed constant regional skew of -0.17 was used in the computation of annual exceedance probability discharges for 281 streamgages used in the regional regression analysis. Based on analysis of covariance, four flood regions were identified for use in the generation of regional regression models. Thirty-nine basin characteristics were considered as potential explanatory variables, and ordinary least-squares regression techniques were used to determine the optimum combinations of basin characteristics for each of the four regions. Basin characteristics in candidate models were evaluated based on multicollinearity with other basin characteristics (variance inflation factor < 2.5) and statistical significance at the 95-percent confidence level (p ≤ 0.05). Generalized least-squares regression was used to develop the final regression models for each flood region. Average standard errors of prediction of the generalized least-squares models ranged from 32.76 to 59.53 percent, with the largest range in flood region D. Pseudo coefficients of determination of the generalized least-squares models ranged from 90.29 to 97.28 percent, with the largest range also in flood region D. The regional regression equations apply only to locations on streams in Arkansas where annual peak discharges are not substantially affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization. The applicability and accuracy of the regional regression equations depend on the basin characteristics measured for an ungaged location on a stream being within range of those used to develop the equations.

Identifying sources of heterogeneity in capture probabilities: An example using the Great Tit Parus major

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senar, J.C.; Conroy, M.J.; Carrascal, L.M.; Domenech, J.; Mozetich, I.; Uribe, F.

1999-01-01

Heterogeneous capture probabilities are a common problem in many capture-recapture studies. Several methods of detecting the presence of such heterogeneity are currently available, and stratification of data has been suggested as the standard method to avoid its effects. However, few studies have tried to identify sources of heterogeneity, or whether there are interactions among sources. The aim of this paper is to suggest an analytical procedure to identify sources of capture heterogeneity. We use data on the sex and age of Great Tits captured in baited funnel traps, at two localities differing in average temperature. We additionally use 'recapture' data obtained by videotaping at feeder (with no associated trap), where the tits ringed with different colours were recorded. This allowed us to test whether individuals in different classes (age, sex and condition) are not trapped because of trap shyness or because o a reduced use of the bait. We used logistic regression analysis of the capture probabilities to test for the effects of age, sex, condition, location and 'recapture method. The results showed a higher recapture probability in the colder locality. Yearling birds (either males or females) had the highest recapture prob abilities, followed by adult males, while adult females had the lowest recapture probabilities. There was no effect of the method of 'recapture' (trap or video tape), which suggests that adult females are less often captured in traps no because of trap-shyness but because of less dependence on supplementary food. The potential use of this methodological approach in other studies is discussed.

Strategies for Obtaining Probability Samples of Homeless Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Golinelli, Daniela; Tucker, Joan S.; Ryan, Gery W.; Wenzel, Suzanne L.

2015-01-01

Studies of homeless individuals typically sample subjects from few types of sites or regions within a metropolitan area. This article focuses on the biases that can result from such a practice. We obtained a probability sample of 419 homeless youth from 41 sites (shelters, drop-in centers, and streets) in four regions of Los Angeles County (LAC).…

The Distance to the Heliospheric VLF Emission Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNutt, R. L., Jr.; Lazarus, A. J.; Belcher, J. W.; Lyon, J.; Goodrich, C. C.; Kulkarni, R.

1995-01-01

Two major episodes of heliospheric VLF emissions near 3 kHz have been observed by the Voyager spacecraft in 1983-1984 and 1992-1993. This higher-frequency component is apparently triggered by solar wind transients with sufficiently large spatial extents and energies to continue to propagate as shocks in the heliosheath. Entrainment of previously unshocked material and changed flow conditions in the heliosheath both tend to slow the shock propagation. The shock evolution is not self-similar. Rather, it is intermediate to two blast-wave similarity solutions in the moving solar wind frame. In one solution the shock moves as time to the 2/3 power and in the other as time to the 4/5 power. Using these models, the shock/Forbush decrease observed at Voyager 2 in September, 1991 and the turn-on of the 1992 emission is consistent with an emission region distance of approx. 130 AU (assuming no additional slowing of the shock in the heliosheath). If the termination shock was at approx. 70 AU when the transient shock collided with it, the true distance to the source region was probably closer to approx. 115 AU.

The distance to the heliospheric VLF emission region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcnutt, R. L., Jr.; Lazarus, A. J.; Belcher, J. W.; Lyon, J.; Goodrich, C. C.; Kulkarni, R.

1995-01-01

Two major episodes of heliospheric VLF emissions near 3 kHz have been observed by the Voyager spacecraft in 1983/84 and 1992/3. This higher-frequency component is apparently triggered by solar wind transients with sufficiently large spatial extents and energies to continue to propagate as shocks in the heliosheath. Entrainment of previously unshocked material and changed flow conditions in the heliosheath both tend to slow the shock propagation. The shock evolution is not self-similar. Rather, it is intermediate to two blast-wave similarity solutions in the moving solar wind frame. In one solution the shock moves as time to the 2/3 power and in the other as time to the 4/5 power. Using these models, the shock/Forbush decrease observed at Voyager 2 in September, 1991 and the turn-on of the 1992 emission is consistent with an emission region distance of approximately 130 AU (assuming no additional slowing of the shock in the heliosheath). If the termination shock was at approximately 70 AU when the transient shock collided with it, the true distance to the source region was probably closer to approximately 115 AU.

Elemental identification of blue paintings traces present in historic cemeteries in the São Martinho region, southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Thiago G.; Richter, Fábio Andreas; Castro, Elisiana Trilha; Gonçalves, Samantha; Spudeit, Daniel A.; Micke, Gustavo A.

2018-03-01

Cemeteries are of great significance in many communities, often being considered of invaluable historical, artistic, architectural and cultural significance and thus they need to be preserved. In this regard, understanding the historical aspects and the construction techniques used is essential for their protection. The purpose of this paper is to describe historical aspects of the funerary heritage present in the region of São Martinho in southern Brazil, along with an analysis of the blue paint found in cemeteries of German colonies in the region studied. FTIR analysis suggests that the binder is composed mostly of a protein resin and a small amount of lipid. The morphology of the pigment was investigated by SEM and EDS and the spectra revealed that the major elements present in the blue pigment are Na, Al, Si and S, with an overlap in the elemental mapping, indicative of ultramarine pigments. The GC-MS results are consistent with the type of binder identified by FTIR and indicate a mixture of oils, probably from vegetal sources, and proteins.

Search for very high energy γ radiation from the radio bright region DR4 of the SNR G78.2+2.1.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prosch, C.; Feigl, E.; Plaga, R.; Arqueros, F.; Cortina, J.; Fernandez, J.; Fernandez, P.; Fonseca, V.; Funk, B.; Gonzalez, J. C.; Haustein, V.; Heinzelmann, G.; Karle, A.; Krawczynski, H.; Krennrich, F.; Kuehn, M.; Lindner, A.; Lorenz, E.; Magnussen, N.; Martinez, S.; Matheis, V.; Merck, M.; Meyer, H.; Mirzoyan, R.; Moeller, H.; Moralejo, A.; Mueller, N.; Padilla, L.; Prahl, J.; Rhode, W.; Samorski, M.; Sanchez, J. A.; Sander, H.; Schmele, D.; Stamm, W.; Wahl, H.; Westerhoff, S.; Wiebel-Sooth, B.; Willmer, M.

1996-10-01

Data from the HEGRA air shower array are used to set an upper limit on the emission of γ-radiation above 25(18)TeV from the direction of the radio bright region DR4 within the SNR G78.2+2.1 of 2.5(7.1)x10^-13^cm^-2^/s. The shock front of SNR G78.2+2.1 probably recently overtook the molecular cloud Cong 8 which then acts as a target for the cosmic rays produced within the SNR, thus leading to the expectation of enhanced γ-radiation. Using a model of Drury, Aharonian and Voelk which assumes that SNRs are the sources of galactic cosmic rays via first order Fermi acceleration, we calculated a theoretical prediction for the γ-ray flux from the DR4 region and compared it with our experimental flux limit. Our `best estimate' value for the predicted flux lies a factor of about 18 above the upper limit for γ-ray energies above 25TeV. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.

Images in the rocket ultraviolet - Young clusters in H II regions of M83

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bohlin, Ralph C.; Cornett, Robert H.; Hill, Jesse K.; Stecher, Theodore P.

1990-01-01

UV images of M83 at 1540 and 2360 A reveal 18 compact sources that are associated with H II regions. E(B - V) values were estimated individually from the observed UV and optical colors and the Galactic UV extinction curve, using theoretical flux distributions. The dereddened colors are consistent with ages up to 3 x 10 to the 6th yr. A maximum possible age of 6.5 x 10 to the 6th yr is obtained assuming foreground reddening only. The distribution of observed colors is consistent with the Galactic reddening curve but not with enhanced far-UV extinction, as in the LMC 30 Dor curve. The H-alpha fluxes suggest either that dust within the H II regions absorbs up to 70 percent of the Lyman continuum radiation or that a similar fraction of the H-alpha flux is below the surface brightness detection limit. Cluster mass estimates depend on the range of stellar masses present but are probably in the range 10,000-100,000 solar masses.

Assessing rockfall susceptibility in steep and overhanging slopes using three-dimensional analysis of failure mechanisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matasci, Battista; Stock, Greg M.; Jaboyedoff, Michael; Carrea, Dario; Collins, Brian D.; Guérin, Antoine; Matasci, G.; Ravanel, L.

2018-01-01

Rockfalls strongly influence the evolution of steep rocky landscapes and represent a significant hazard in mountainous areas. Defining the most probable future rockfall source areas is of primary importance for both geomorphological investigations and hazard assessment. Thus, a need exists to understand which areas of a steep cliff are more likely to be affected by a rockfall. An important analytical gap exists between regional rockfall susceptibility studies and block-specific geomechanical calculations. Here we present methods for quantifying rockfall susceptibility at the cliff scale, which is suitable for sub-regional hazard assessment (hundreds to thousands of square meters). Our methods use three-dimensional point clouds acquired by terrestrial laser scanning to quantify the fracture patterns and compute failure mechanisms for planar, wedge, and toppling failures on vertical and overhanging rock walls. As a part of this work, we developed a rockfall susceptibility index for each type of failure mechanism according to the interaction between the discontinuities and the local cliff orientation. The susceptibility for slope parallel exfoliation-type failures, which are generally hard to identify, is partly captured by planar and toppling susceptibility indexes. We tested the methods for detecting the most susceptible rockfall source areas on two famously steep landscapes, Yosemite Valley (California, USA) and the Drus in the Mont-Blanc massif (France). Our rockfall susceptibility models show good correspondence with active rockfall sources. The methods offer new tools for investigating rockfall hazard and improving our understanding of rockfall processes.

[The electroencephalographic correlates of neurological disorders in the late periods of exposure to ionizing radiation (the aftereffects of the accident at the Chernobyl Atomic Electric Power Station)].

PubMed

Zhavoronkova, L A; Kholodova, N B; Zubovskiĭ, G A; Smirnov, Iu N; Koptelov, Iu M; Ryzhov, N I

1994-01-01

EEG mapping and three-dimensional localization of epileptic activity sources together with a neurological analysis were carried out in subjects having taken part in 1986-1987 in the liquidation of consequences of the Chernobyl accident. Experimental group included 40 right-handed 25-45 years-old men having received a radiation dose of 15-51 Ber stated officially. Control group consisted of 20 healthy men. Neurological examination of the patients revealed vegetative-vascular and endocrine dysfunctions as well as diffuse neurological symptoms. EEG of one group of patients (25 persons) was characterized by slow alpha- and theta-band foci and epileptic waves in the central-frontal regions; epileptic sources were localized at the diencephalic level mainly in the midline being shifted to the right hemisphere. In the EEG of another group (15 persons) delta-waves were recorded in the frontal regions at the background of diffuse beta-activity. The sources of epileptic activity of a diffuse character were localized at the basal level of the brain and in the cortex (predominantly) in the left hemisphere. The results obtained together with SPECT mapping and CT data permit to suppose the organic damage of different brain structures (at the cortical and the midline levels) in the patients, with participation of diencephalic structures in the pathological process hypothalamic-hypophysial system being probably connected with adaptive processes in the CNS.

Provenance analysis on detrital zircons from the back-arc Arivechi basin: Implications for the Upper Cretaceous tectonic evolution of northern Sonora and southern Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Castañeda, José Luis; Ortega-Rivera, Amabel; Roldán-Quintana, Jaime; Espinoza-Maldonado, Inocente Guadalupe

2018-07-01

In the Arivechi region of eastern Sonora, northwestern Mexico, mountainous exposures of Upper Cretaceous rocks that contain monoliths within coarse sedimentary debris are enigmatic, in a province of largely Late Cretaceous continental-margin arc rocks. The rocks sequence in the study area are grouped in two Upper Cretaceous units: the lower Cañada de Tarachi and the younger El Potrero Grande. Detrital zircons collected from three samples of the Cañada de Tarachi and El Potrero Grande units have been analyzed for U-Pb ages to constrain their provenance. These ages constrain the age of the exposed rocks and provide new insights into the geological evolution of eastern Sonora Cretaceous rocks. The detrital zircon age populations determined for the Cañada de Tarachi and El Potrero Grande units contain distinctive Precambrian, Paleozoic, and Mesozoic zircon ages that provide probable source areas which are discussed in detail constraining the tectonic evolution of the region. Comparison of these knew ages with published data suggests that the source terranes, that supplied zircons to the Arivechi basin, correlate with Proterozoic, Paleozoic and Mesozoic domains in southern California and Baja California, northern Sonora, southern Arizona and eastern Chihuahua. The provenance variation is vital to constrain the source of the Cretaceous rocks in eastern Sonora and support a better understanding of the Permo-Triassic Cordilleran Magmatic Arc in the southwestern North America.

Concentration distribution and assessment of several heavy metals in sediments of west-four Pearl River Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shanshan; Cao, Zhimin; Lan, Dongzhao; Zheng, Zhichang; Li, Guihai

2008-09-01

Grain size parameters, trace metals (Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Cr, Zn, Ba, Zr and Sr) and total organic matter (TOM) of 38 surficial sediments and a sediment core of west-four Pearl River Estuary region were analyzed. The spacial distribution and the transportation procession of the chemical element in surficial sediments were studied mainly. Multivariate statistics are used to analyses the interrelationship of metal elements, TOM and the grain size parameters. The results demonstrated that terrigenous sediment taken by the rivers are main sources of the trace metal elements and TOM, and the lithology of parent material is a dominating factor controlling the trace metal composition in the surficial sediment. In addition, the hydrodynamic condition and landform are the dominating factors controlling the large-scale distribution, while the anthropogenic input in the coastal area alters the regional distribution of heavy metal elements Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Cr and Zn. The enrichment factor (EF) analysis was used for the differentiation of the metal source between anthropogenic and naturally occurring, and for the assessment of the anthropogenic influence, the deeper layer content of heavy metals were calculated as the background values and Zr was chosen as the reference element for Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Cr and Zn. The result indicate prevalent enrichment of Co, Cu, Ni, Pb and Cr, and the contamination of Pb is most obvious, further more, the peculiar high EF value sites of Zn and Pb probably suggest point source input.

Hovsgol earthquake 5 December 2014, M W = 4.9: seismic and acoustic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrynina, Anna A.; Sankov, Vladimir A.; Tcydypova, Larisa R.; German, Victor I.; Chechelnitsky, Vladimir V.; Ulzibat, Munkhuu

2018-03-01

A moderate shallow earthquake occurred on 5 December 2014 ( M W = 4.9) in the north of Lake Hovsgol (northern Mongolia). The infrasonic signal with duration 140 s was recorded for this earthquake by the "Tory" infrasound array (Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, Russia). Source parameters of the earthquake (seismic moment, geometrical sizes, displacement amplitudes in the focus) were determined using spectral analysis of direct body P and S waves. The spectral analysis of seismograms and amplitude variations of the surface waves allows to determine the effect of the propagation of the rupture in the earthquake focus, the azimuth of the rupture propagation direction and the velocity of displacement in the earthquake focus. The results of modelling of the surface displacements caused by the Hovsgol earthquake and high effective velocity of propagation of infrasound signal ( 625 m/s) indicate that its occurrence is not caused by the downward movement of the Earth's surface in the epicentral region but by the effect of the secondary source. The position of the secondary source of infrasound signal is defined on the northern slopes of the Khamar-Daban ridge according to the data on the azimuth and time of arrival of acoustic wave at the Tory station. The interaction of surface waves with the regional topography is proposed as the most probable mechanism of formation of the infrasound signal.

Potential sources of the air masses leading to warm and cold anomalies in Moscow in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukurov, K. A.; Semenov, V. A.

2017-11-01

For summer (June-July-August) days in 1949-2016, using the NOAA trajectory model HYSPLIT_4, the 5-day backward trajectories of the air parcels (elementary air particles) were calculated. Using the daily surface air temperatures (SAT) in summer in Moscow in 1949-2016 and the results of the backward trajectories modeling by PSCF (potential source contribution function) and CWT (concentration weighted trajectories) methods the regions where the air masses most probably hit to before its arrive into the Moscow region at the days of 20%, 10%, 5% and 2% of the strongest positive and negative anomalies of SAT in summer in Moscow. For composites of days with SAT in summer in Moscow above 90th and below the 10th percentile of the distribution function of the SAT, the field of the anomaly of atmospheric pressure at sea level relative to 1981-2010 climatology and the field of average SAT in Eurasia north of 30° N are calculated. The peculiarities of the fields associated with the strong positive and negative anomalies of SAT in summer seasons in Moscow are identified. The fields of potential sources of air parcels, mean air temperature on the path of the movement of air parcels and the average height of the backward trajectory for days with strong anomalies of SAT in summer in Moscow are compared. Possible atmospheric circulation drivers of the highest and lowest anomalies of SAT in winter in Moscow are found out.

Detrital and volcanic zircon U-Pb ages from southern Mendoza (Argentina): An insight on the source regions in the northern part of the Neuquén Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naipauer, Maximiliano; Tapia, Felipe; Mescua, José; Farías, Marcelo; Pimentel, Marcio M.; Ramos, Victor A.

2015-12-01

The infill of the Neuquén Basin recorded the Meso-Cenozoic geological and tectonic evolution of the southern Central Andes being an excellent site to investigate how the pattern of detrital zircon ages varies trough time. In this work we analyze the U-Pb (LA-MC-ICP-MS) zircon ages from sedimentary and volcanic rocks related to synrift and retroarc stages of the northern part of the Neuquén Basin. These data define the crystallization age of the synrift volcanism at 223 ± 2 Ma (Cerro Negro Andesite) and the maximum depositional age of the original synrift sediments at ca. 204 Ma (El Freno Formation). Two different pulses of rifting could be recognized according to the absolute ages, the oldest developed during the Norian and the younger during the Rhaetian-Sinemurian. The source regions of the El Freno Formation show that the Choiyoi magmatic province was the main source rock of sediment supply. An important amount of detrital zircons with Triassic ages was identified and interpreted as a source area related to the synrift magmatism. The maximum depositional age calculated for the Tordillo Formation in the Atuel-La Valenciana depocenter is at ca. 149 Ma; as well as in other places of the Neuquén Basin, the U-Pb ages calculated in the Late Jurassic Tordillo Formation do not agree with the absolute age of the Kimmeridgian-Tithonian boundary (ca. 152 Ma). The main source region of sediment in the Tordillo Formation was the Andean magmatic arc. Basement regions were also present with age peaks at the Carboniferous, Neoproterozoic, and Mesoproterozoic; these regions were probably located to the east in the San Rafael Block. The pattern of zircon ages summarized for the Late Jurassic Tordillo and Lagunillas formations were interpreted as a record of the magmatic activity during the Triassic and Jurassic in the southern Central Andes. A waning of the magmatism is inferred to have happened during the Triassic. The evident lack of ages observed around ca. 200 Ma suggests cessation of the synrift magmatism. The later increase in magmatic activity during the Early Jurassic is attributed to the onset of Andean subduction, with maximum peaks at ca. 191 and 179 Ma. The trough at ca. 165 Ma and the later increase in the Late Jurassic could be explained by changes in the relative convergence rate in the Andean subduction regime, or by the shift to a more mafic composition of the magmatism with minor zircon fertility.

Spatiotemporal Distribution, Sources, and Photobleaching Imprint of Dissolved Organic Matter in the Yangtze Estuary and Its Adjacent Sea Using Fluorescence and Parallel Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Li, Penghui; Chen, Ling; Zhang, Wen; Huang, Qinghui

2015-01-01

To investigate the seasonal and interannual dynamics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the Yangtze Estuary, surface and bottom water samples in the Yangtze Estuary and its adjacent sea were collected and characterized using fluorescence excitation-emission matrices (EEMs) and parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) in both dry and wet seasons in 2012 and 2013. Two protein-like components and three humic-like components were identified. Three humic-like components decreased linearly with increasing salinity (r>0.90, p<0.001), suggesting their distribution could primarily be controlled by physical mixing. By contrast, two protein-like components fell below the theoretical mixing line, largely due to microbial degradation and removal during mixing. Higher concentrations of humic-like components found in 2012 could be attributed to higher freshwater discharge relative to 2013. There was a lack of systematic patterns for three humic-like components between seasons and years, probably due to variations of other factors such as sources and characteristics. Highest concentrations of fluorescent components, observed in estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) region, could be attributed to sediment resuspension and subsequent release of DOM, supported by higher concentrations of fluorescent components in bottom water than in surface water at two stations where sediments probably resuspended. Meanwhile, photobleaching could be reflected from the changes in the ratios between fluorescence intensity (Fmax) of humic-like components and chromophoric DOM (CDOM) absorption coefficient (a355) along the salinity gradient. This study demonstrates the abundance and composition of DOM in estuaries are controlled not only by hydrological conditions, but also by its sources, characteristics and related estuarine biogeochemical processes. PMID:26107640

Evaluation of seasonal variation of water quality using multivariate statistical analysis and irrigation parameter indices in Ajakanga area, Ibadan, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganiyu, S. A.; Badmus, B. S.; Olurin, O. T.; Ojekunle, Z. O.

2018-03-01

The variation of groundwater quality across different regions is of great importance in the study of groundwater so as to ascertain the sources of contaminants to available water sources. Geochemical assessment of groundwater samples from hand-dug wells were done within the vicinity of Ajakanga dumpsite, Ibadan, Southwestern, Nigeria, with the aim of assessing their suitability for domestic and irrigation purposes. Ten groundwater samples were collected both in dry and wet seasons for analysis of physicochemical parameters such as: pH, EC, TDS, Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3^{ - } Cl-, SO4^{2 - }, NO3^{2 - } principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) were used to determine probable sources of groundwater contamination. The results of the analyses showed the groundwater samples to be within permissible limits of WHO/NSDWQ, while elevated values of concentrations of most analyzed chemical constituents in water samples were noticed in S1 and S10 due to their nearness to the dumpsite and agricultural overflow, respectively. Groundwater in the study area is of hard, fresh and alkaline nature. There are very strong associations between EC and TDS, HCO3^{ - } and CO3^{2 - } in both seasons. PCA identified five and three major factors accounting for 95.7 and 88.7% of total variation in water quality for dry and wet seasons, respectively. PCA also identified factors influencing water quality as those probably related to mineral dissolution, groundwater-rock interaction, weathering process and anthropogenic activities from the dumpsite. Results of CA show groups based on similar water quality characteristics and on the extent of proximity to the dumpsite. Assessment for irrigation purpose showed that most of the water samples were suitable for agricultural purpose except in a few locations.

Multi-epoch VLBA Imaging of 20 New TeV Blazars: Apparent Jet Speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piner, B. Glenn; Edwards, Philip G.

2018-01-01

We present 88 multi-epoch Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) images (most at an observing frequency of 8 GHz) of 20 TeV blazars, all of the high-frequency-peaked BL Lac (HBL) class, that have not been previously studied at multiple epochs on the parsec scale. From these 20 sources, we analyze the apparent speeds of 43 jet components that are all detected at four or more epochs. As has been found for other TeV HBLs, the apparent speeds of these components are relatively slow. About two-thirds of the components have an apparent speed that is consistent (within 2σ) with no motion, and some of these components may be stationary patterns whose apparent speed does not relate to the underlying bulk flow speed. In addition, a superluminal tail to the apparent speed distribution of the TeV HBLs is detected for the first time, with eight components in seven sources having a 2σ lower limit on the apparent speed exceeding 1c. We combine the data from these 20 sources with an additional 18 sources from the literature to analyze the complete apparent speed distribution of all 38 TeV HBLs that have been studied with very long baseline interferometry at multiple epochs. The highest 2σ apparent speed lower limit considering all sources is 3.6c. This suggests that bulk Lorentz factors of up to about 4, but probably not much higher, exist in the parsec-scale radio-emitting regions of these sources, consistent with estimates obtained in the radio by other means such as brightness temperatures. This can be reconciled with the high Lorentz factors estimated from the high-energy data if the jet has velocity structures consisting of different emission regions with different Lorentz factors. In particular, we analyze the current apparent speed data for the TeV HBLs in the context of a model with a fast central spine and a slower outer layer.

Parameter identifiability and regional calibration for reservoir inflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolberg, Sjur; Engeland, Kolbjørn; Tøfte, Lena S.; Bruland, Oddbjørn

2013-04-01

The large hydropower producer Statkraft is currently testing regional, distributed models for operational reservoir inflow prediction. The need for simultaneous forecasts and consistent updating in a large number of catchments supports the shift from catchment-oriented to regional models. Low-quality naturalized inflow series in the reservoir catchments further encourages the use of donor catchments and regional simulation for calibration purposes. MCMC based parameter estimation (the Dream algorithm; Vrugt et al, 2009) is adapted to regional parameter estimation, and implemented within the open source ENKI framework. The likelihood is based on the concept of effectively independent number of observations, spatially as well as in time. Marginal and conditional (around an optimum) parameter distributions for each catchment may be extracted, even though the MCMC algorithm itself is guided only by the regional likelihood surface. Early results indicate that the average performance loss associated with regional calibration (difference in Nash-Sutcliffe R2 between regionally and locally optimal parameters) is in the range of 0.06. The importance of the seasonal snow storage and melt in Norwegian mountain catchments probably contributes to the high degree of similarity among catchments. The evaluation continues for several regions, focusing on posterior parameter uncertainty and identifiability. Vrugt, J. A., C. J. F. ter Braak, C. G. H. Diks, B. A. Robinson, J. M. Hyman and D. Higdon: Accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation by Differential Evolution with Self-Adaptive Randomized Subspace Sampling. Int. J. of nonlinear sciences and numerical simulation 10, 3, 273-290, 2009.

Titan Ion Composition at Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Transition Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sittler, Edward C.; Hartle, R. E.; Shappirio, M.; Simpson, D. J.; COoper, J. F.; Burger, M. H.; Johnson, R. E.; Bertucci, C.; Luhman, J. G.; Ledvina, S. A.;

The past and future of food stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca; D'Odorico, Paolo

2016-03-01

Human societies rely on food reserves and the importation of agricultural goods as means to cope with crop failures and associated food shortage. While food trade has been the subject of intensive investigations in recent years, food reserves remain poorly quantified. It is unclear how food stocks are changing and whether they are declining. In this study we use food stock records for 92 products to reconstruct 50 years of aggregated food reserves, expressed in caloric equivalent (kcal), at the regional and global scales. A detailed statistical analysis demonstrates that the overall regional and global per-capita food stocks are stationary, challenging a widespread impression that food reserves are shrinking. We develop a statistically-sound stochastic representation of stock dynamics and take the stock-halving probability as a measure of the natural variability of the process. We find that there is a 20% probability that the global per-capita stocks will be halved by 2050. There are, however, some strong regional differences: Western Europe and the region encompassing North Africa and the Middle East have smaller halving probabilities and smaller per-capita stocks, while North America and Oceania have greater halving probabilities and greater per-capita stocks than the global average. Africa exhibits low per-capita stocks and relatively high probability of stock halving by 2050, which reflects a state of higher food insecurity in this continent.

Polarized point sources in the LOFAR Two-meter Sky Survey: A preliminary catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Eck, C. L.; Haverkorn, M.; Alves, M. I. R.; Beck, R.; Best, P.; Carretti, E.; Chyży, K. T.; Farnes, J. S.; Ferrière, K.; Hardcastle, M. J.; Heald, G.; Horellou, C.; Iacobelli, M.; Jelić, V.; Mulcahy, D. D.; O'Sullivan, S. P.; Polderman, I. M.; Reich, W.; Riseley, C. J.; Röttgering, H.; Schnitzeler, D. H. F. M.; Shimwell, T. W.; Vacca, V.; Vink, J.; White, G. J.

2018-06-01

The polarization properties of radio sources at very low frequencies (<200 MHz) have not been widely measured, but the new generation of low-frequency radio telescopes, including the Low Frequency Array (LOFAR: a Square Kilometre Array Low pathfinder), now gives us the opportunity to investigate these properties. In this paper, we report on the preliminary development of a data reduction pipeline to carry out polarization processing and Faraday tomography for data from the LOFAR Two-meter Sky Survey (LOTSS) and present the results of this pipeline from the LOTSS preliminary data release region (10h45m-15h30m right ascension, 45°-57° declination, 570 square degrees). We have produced a catalog of 92 polarized radio sources at 150 MHz at 4.'3 resolution and 1 mJy rms sensitivity, which is the largest catalog of polarized sources at such low frequencies. We estimate a lower limit to the polarized source surface density at 150 MHz, with our resolution and sensitivity, of 1 source per 6.2 square degrees. We find that our Faraday depth measurements are in agreement with previous measurements and have significantly smaller errors. Most of our sources show significant depolarization compared to 1.4 GHz, but there is a small population of sources with low depolarization indicating that their polarized emission is highly localized in Faraday depth. We predict that an extension of this work to the full LOTSS data would detect at least 3400 polarized sources using the same methods, and probably considerably more with improved data processing.

Probability distributions of hydraulic conductivity for the hydrogeologic units of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belcher, Wayne R.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Elliott, Peggy E.

2002-01-01

The use of geologic information such as lithology and rock properties is important to constrain conceptual and numerical hydrogeologic models. This geologic information is difficult to apply explicitly to numerical modeling and analyses because it tends to be qualitative rather than quantitative. This study uses a compilation of hydraulic-conductivity measurements to derive estimates of the probability distributions for several hydrogeologic units within the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, a geologically and hydrologically complex region underlain by basin-fill sediments, volcanic, intrusive, sedimentary, and metamorphic rocks. Probability distributions of hydraulic conductivity for general rock types have been studied previously; however, this study provides more detailed definition of hydrogeologic units based on lithostratigraphy, lithology, alteration, and fracturing and compares the probability distributions to the aquifer test data. Results suggest that these probability distributions can be used for studies involving, for example, numerical flow modeling, recharge, evapotranspiration, and rainfall runoff. These probability distributions can be used for such studies involving the hydrogeologic units in the region, as well as for similar rock types elsewhere. Within the study area, fracturing appears to have the greatest influence on the hydraulic conductivity of carbonate bedrock hydrogeologic units. Similar to earlier studies, we find that alteration and welding in the Tertiary volcanic rocks greatly influence hydraulic conductivity. As alteration increases, hydraulic conductivity tends to decrease. Increasing degrees of welding appears to increase hydraulic conductivity because welding increases the brittleness of the volcanic rocks, thus increasing the amount of fracturing.

Potential of hydraulically induced fractures to communicate with existing wellbores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montague, James A.; Pinder, George F.

2015-10-01

The probability that new hydraulically fractured wells drilled within the area of New York underlain by the Marcellus Shale will intersect an existing wellbore is calculated using a statistical model, which incorporates: the depth of a new fracturing well, the vertical growth of induced fractures, and the depths and locations of existing nearby wells. The model first calculates the probability of encountering an existing well in plan view and combines this with the probability of an existing well-being at sufficient depth to intersect the fractured region. Average probability estimates for the entire region of New York underlain by the Marcellus Shale range from 0.00% to 3.45% based upon the input parameters used. The largest contributing parameter on the probability value calculated is the nearby density of wells meaning that due diligence by oil and gas companies during construction in identifying all nearby wells will have the greatest effect in reducing the probability of interwellbore communication.

Incorporating the effects of socioeconomic uncertainty into priority setting for conservation investment.

PubMed

McBride, Marissa F; Wilson, Kerrie A; Bode, Michael; Possingham, Hugh P

2007-12-01

Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.

Developing a probability-based model of aquifer vulnerability in an agricultural region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shih-Kai; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Peng, Yi-Huei

2013-04-01

SummaryHydrogeological settings of aquifers strongly influence the regional groundwater movement and pollution processes. Establishing a map of aquifer vulnerability is considerably critical for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a novel probability-based DRASTIC model of aquifer vulnerability in the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan, using indicator kriging and to determine various risk categories of contamination potentials based on estimated vulnerability indexes. Categories and ratings of six parameters in the probability-based DRASTIC model were probabilistically characterized according to the parameter classification methods of selecting a maximum estimation probability and calculating an expected value. Moreover, the probability-based estimation and assessment gave us an excellent insight into propagating the uncertainty of parameters due to limited observation data. To examine the prediction capacity of pollutants for the developed probability-based DRASTIC model, medium, high, and very high risk categories of contamination potentials were compared with observed nitrate-N exceeding 0.5 mg/L indicating the anthropogenic groundwater pollution. The analyzed results reveal that the developed probability-based DRASTIC model is capable of predicting high nitrate-N groundwater pollution and characterizing the parameter uncertainty via the probability estimation processes.

High-power free-electron lasers-technology and future applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Socol, Yehoshua

2013-03-01

Free-electron laser (FEL) is an all-electric, high-power, high beam-quality source of coherent radiation, tunable - unlike other laser sources - at any wavelength within wide spectral region from hard X-rays to far-IR and beyond. After the initial push in the framework of the “Star Wars” program, the FEL technology benefited from decades of R&D and scientific applications. Currently, there are clear signs that the FEL technology reached maturity, enabling real-world applications. E.g., successful and unexpectedly smooth commissioning of the world-first X-ray FEL in 2010 increased in one blow by more than an order of magnitude (40×) wavelength region available by FEL technology and thus demonstrated that the theoretical predictions just keep true in real machines. Experience of ordering turn-key electron beamlines from commercial companies is a further demonstration of the FEL technology maturity. Moreover, successful commissioning of the world-first multi-turn energy-recovery linac demonstrated feasibility of reducing FEL size, cost and power consumption by probably an order of magnitude in respect to previous configurations, opening way to applications, previously considered as non-feasible. This review takes engineer-oriented approach to discuss the FEL technology issues, keeping in mind applications in the fields of military and aerospace, next generation semiconductor lithography, photo-chemistry and isotope separation.

[Epizootic characteristic of rabies today].

PubMed

Makarov, V V; Dzhupina, S I; Vedernikov, V A; Zavodskikh, A V; Afonin, V N

2002-01-01

During the 23 year period rabies was registered in the Moscow region in 163 cases among foxes, 22 cases among racoon-like dogs, 92 cases among dogs, 54 cases among cats. In 1991-2000 ten cases of rabies were registered among other wild animal other than foxes and raccoon-like dogs (hares, hedge-hogs, polecats, badgers, hamsters, martens, rats). Under today conditions the generalized epizootological pattern of rabies is characterized by the vector "natural foci-->anthropurgic foci" with wild and domestic animals playing an alternative role in the epizootic process and the circulation of the infective agent. Wild carnivorous animals maintain natural focal infection in time and space, while all domestic animals are a direct or indirect ecological impasse and took no part in the maintenance of the infection. Foxes are the main source of infection for the animals of the anthropurgic cycle: they play a special role in the development of the epizootic situation in the region as the main reservoir and source of the causative agent of rabies as a natural focal infection. Among other wild animals, raccoon-like dogs are involved into epizootic and epidemic chains. Dogs are the main objects to be infected in the anthropurgic cycles, while cats--a progressing group of risk. During the period of 25 years a decrease in the probability of natural rabies was noted.

Inverse modeling methods for indoor airborne pollutant tracking: literature review and fundamentals.

PubMed

Liu, X; Zhai, Z

2007-12-01

Reduction in indoor environment quality calls for effective control and improvement measures. Accurate and prompt identification of contaminant sources ensures that they can be quickly removed and contaminated spaces isolated and cleaned. This paper discusses the use of inverse modeling to identify potential indoor pollutant sources with limited pollutant sensor data. The study reviews various inverse modeling methods for advection-dispersion problems and summarizes the methods into three major categories: forward, backward, and probability inverse modeling methods. The adjoint probability inverse modeling method is indicated as an appropriate model for indoor air pollutant tracking because it can quickly find source location, strength and release time without prior information. The paper introduces the principles of the adjoint probability method and establishes the corresponding adjoint equations for both multi-zone airflow models and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models. The study proposes a two-stage inverse modeling approach integrating both multi-zone and CFD models, which can provide a rapid estimate of indoor pollution status and history for a whole building. Preliminary case study results indicate that the adjoint probability method is feasible for indoor pollutant inverse modeling. The proposed method can help identify contaminant source characteristics (location and release time) with limited sensor outputs. This will ensure an effective and prompt execution of building management strategies and thus achieve a healthy and safe indoor environment. The method can also help design optimal sensor networks.

Bayesian statistics in radionuclide metrology: measurement of a decaying source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bochud, François O.; Bailat, Claude J.; Laedermann, Jean-Pascal

2007-08-01

The most intuitive way of defining a probability is perhaps through the frequency at which it appears when a large number of trials are realized in identical conditions. The probability derived from the obtained histogram characterizes the so-called frequentist or conventional statistical approach. In this sense, probability is defined as a physical property of the observed system. By contrast, in Bayesian statistics, a probability is not a physical property or a directly observable quantity, but a degree of belief or an element of inference. The goal of this paper is to show how Bayesian statistics can be used in radionuclide metrology and what its advantages and disadvantages are compared with conventional statistics. This is performed through the example of an yttrium-90 source typically encountered in environmental surveillance measurement. Because of the very low activity of this kind of source and the small half-life of the radionuclide, this measurement takes several days, during which the source decays significantly. Several methods are proposed to compute simultaneously the number of unstable nuclei at a given reference time, the decay constant and the background. Asymptotically, all approaches give the same result. However, Bayesian statistics produces coherent estimates and confidence intervals in a much smaller number of measurements. Apart from the conceptual understanding of statistics, the main difficulty that could deter radionuclide metrologists from using Bayesian statistics is the complexity of the computation.

Plasma observations near Saturn - Initial results from Voyager 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridge, H. S.; Bagenal, F.; Belcher, J. W.; Lazarus, A. J.; Mcnutt, R. L.; Sullivan, J. D.; Gazis, P. R.; Hartle, R. E.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Scudder, J. D.

1982-01-01

Results of plasma measurements made by Voyager 2 in the vicinity of Saturn are discussed and compared with those made by Pioneer 11 and Voyager 1 in a more limited range of latitudes. The initial bow shock crossing on the inbound trajectory closely agreed with the shock position inferred from the external ram pressure in the solar wind, although boundaries on the outbound pass were much further out than expected. Magnetospheric plasma observations reveal the presence of (1) shocked solar wind plasma in the magnetosheath between 30 and 22 Saturn radii; (2) a variable density region between 17 Saturn radii and the magnetopause; (3) an extended thick plasma sheet between 17 and 7 Saturn radii; and (4) an inner plasma torus probably originating from local sources. The ratio of heavy to light ions was observed to vary with distance to the equatorial plane in the dayside magnetosphere, with the heavy ions, probably O(+), more closely confined to the equatorial plane. The plasma data also account for the observed inner boundary of the neutral hydrogen torus discovered by Voyager 1.

Parsec-scale jets and tori in seyfert galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, A. L.; Wrobel, J. M.; Wilson, A. S.; Ulvestad, J. S.; Norris, R. P.; Mundell, C. G.; Krichbaum, T. P.; Falcke, H.; Colbert, E. J. M.

2001-01-01

H. Falcke, T.P. Krichbaum, C.G. Mundell, J.S. Ulvestad, A.S. Wilson, J.M. Wrobel Active galaxies tend to be powerful or weak radio sources, and we still do not understand the underlying cause. Perhaps the engine is the same in both systems and the jet gets disrupted by dense interstellar medium in radio-quiet objects, or else the difference is intrinsic with jet power scaling with black hole spin. To distinguish, one can look for signs of interaction between the jet and the narrow-line region, and to measure the jet speed close to the jet base, before environmental effects become important. We find one-sided parsec-scale jet structures in Mrk 348, Mrk 231, NGC 4151, and NGC 5506 using VLBI, and we measure low jet speeds (typically <= 0.25 c). The one-sidedness probably is not due to Doppler boosting, but rather is probably free-free absorption. Plasma conditions required to produce the absorption are Ne >= 2 × 105 cm-3 assuming a path length of 0.1 pc, typical of that expected at the inner edge of the obscuring torus.

Automated measurement of spatial preference in the open field test with transmitted lighting.

PubMed

Kulikov, Alexander V; Tikhonova, Maria A; Kulikov, Victor A

2008-05-30

New modification of the open field was designed to improve automation of the test. The main innovations were: (1) transmitted lighting and (2) estimation of probability to find pixels associated with an animal in the selected region of arena as an objective index of spatial preference. Transmitted (inverted) lighting significantly ameliorated the contrast between an animal and arena and allowed to track white animals with similar efficacy as colored ones. Probability as a measure of preference of selected region was mathematically proved and experimentally verified. A good correlation between probability and classic indices of spatial preference (number of region entries and time spent therein) was shown. The algorithm of calculation of probability to find pixels associated with an animal in the selected region was implemented in the EthoStudio software. Significant interstrain differences in locomotion and the central zone preference (index of anxiety) were shown using the inverted lighting and the EthoStudio software in mice of six inbred strains. The effects of arena shape (circle or square) and a novel object presence in the center of arena on the open field behavior in mice were studied.

Guidance of spatial attention by incidental learning and endogenous cuing

PubMed Central

Jiang, Yuhong V.; Swallow, Khena M.; Rosenbaum, Gail M.

2012-01-01

Our visual system is highly sensitive to regularities in the environment. Locations that were important in one’s previous experience are often prioritized during search, even though observers may not be aware of the learning. In this study we characterized the guidance of spatial attention by incidental learning of a target’s spatial probability, and examined the interaction between endogenous cuing and probability cuing. Participants searched for a target (T) among distractors (L’s). The target was more often located in one region of the screen than in others. We found that search RT was faster when the target appeared in the high-frequency region rather than the low-frequency regions. This difference increased when there were more items on the display, suggesting that probability cuing guides spatial attention. Additional data indicated that on their own, probability cuing and endogenous cuing (e.g., a central arrow that predicted a target’s location) were similarly effective at guiding attention. However, when both cues were presented at once, probability cuing was largely eliminated. Thus, although both incidental learning and endogenous cuing can effectively guide attention, endogenous cuing takes precedence over incidental learning. PMID:22506784

Canada Basin revealed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mosher, David C.; Shimeld, John; Hutchinson, Deborah R.; Chian, D; Lebedeva-Ivanova, Nina; Jackson, Ruth

2012-01-01

More than 15,000 line-km of new regional seismic reflection and refraction data in the western Arctic Ocean provide insights into the tectonic and sedimentologic history of Canada Basin, permitting development of new geologic understanding in one of Earth's last frontiers. These new data support a rotational opening model for southern Canada Basin. There is a central basement ridge possibly representing an extinct spreading center with oceanic crustal velocities and blocky basement morphology characteristic of spreading centre crust surrounding this ridge. Basement elevation is lower in the south, mostly due to sediment loading subsidence. The sedimentary succession is thickest in the southern Beaufort Sea region, reaching more than 15 km, and generally thins to the north and west. In the north, grabens and half-grabens are indicative of extension. Alpha-Mendeleev Ridge is a large igneous province in northern Amerasia Basin, presumably emplaced synchronously with basin formation. It overprints most of northern Canada Basin structure. The seafloor and sedimentary succession of Canada Basin is remarkably flat-lying in its central region, with little bathymetric change over most of its extent. Reflections that correlate over 100s of kms comprise most of the succession and on-lap bathymetric and basement highs. They are interpreted as representing deposits from unconfined turbidity current flows. Sediment distribution patterns reflect changing source directions during the basin’s history. Initially, probably late Cretaceous to Paleocene synrift sediments sourced from the Alaska and Mackenzie-Beaufort margins. This unit shows a progressive series of onlap unconformities with a younging trend towards Alpha and Northwind ridges, likely a response to contemporaneous subsidence. Sediment source direction appeared to shift to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago margin for the Eocene and Oligocene, likely due to uplift of Arctic islands during the Eurekan Orogeny. The final stage of sedimentation appears to be from the Mackenzie-Beaufort region for the Miocene and Pliocene when drainage patterns shifted in the Yukon and Alaska to the Mackenzie valley. Upturned reflections at onlap positions may indicate syn-depositional subsidence. There is little evidence, at least at a regional seismic data scale, of contemporaneous or post-depositional sediment reworking, suggesting little large-scale geostrophic or thermohaline-driven bottom current activity.

Estimates of water source contributions in a dynamic urban water supply system inferred via a Bayesian stable isotope mixing model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jameel, M. Y.; Brewer, S.; Fiorella, R.; Tipple, B. J.; Bowen, G. J.; Terry, S.

2017-12-01

Public water supply systems (PWSS) are complex distribution systems and critical infrastructure, making them vulnerable to physical disruption and contamination. Exploring the susceptibility of PWSS to such perturbations requires detailed knowledge of the supply system structure and operation. Although the physical structure of supply systems (i.e., pipeline connection) is usually well documented for developed cities, the actual flow patterns of water in these systems are typically unknown or estimated based on hydrodynamic models with limited observational validation. Here, we present a novel method for mapping the flow structure of water in a large, complex PWSS, building upon recent work highlighting the potential of stable isotopes of water (SIW) to document water management practices within complex PWSS. We sampled a major water distribution system of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, measuring SIW of water sources, treatment facilities, and numerous sites within in the supply system. We then developed a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) isotope mixing model to quantify the proportion of water supplied by different sources at sites within the supply system. Known production volumes and spatial distance effects were used to define the prior probabilities for each source; however, we did not include other physical information about the supply system. Our results were in general agreement with those obtained by hydrodynamic models and provide quantitative estimates of contributions of different water sources to a given site along with robust estimates of uncertainty. Secondary properties of the supply system, such as regions of "static" and "dynamic" source (e.g., regions supplied dominantly by one source vs. those experiencing active mixing between multiple sources), can be inferred from the results. The isotope-based HB isotope mixing model offers a new investigative technique for analyzing PWSS and documenting aspects of supply system structure and operation that are otherwise challenging to observe. The method could allow water managers to document spatiotemporal variation in PWSS flow patterns, critical for interrogating the distribution system to inform operation decision making or disaster response, optimize water supply and, monitor and enforce water rights.

New insights into trace elements deposition in the snow packs at remote alpine glaciers in the northern Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Dong, Zhiwen; Kang, Shichang; Qin, Xiang; Li, Xiaofei; Qin, Dahe; Ren, Jiawen

2015-10-01

Trace element pollution resulting from anthropogenic emissions is evident throughout most of the atmosphere and has the potential to create environmental and health risks. In this study we investigated trace element deposition in the snowpacks at two different locations in the northern Tibetan Plateau, including the Laohugou (LHG) and the Tanggula (TGL) glacier basins, and its related atmospheric pollution information in these glacier areas, mainly focusing on 18 trace elements (Li, Be, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ga, Rb, Nb, Mo, Cd, Sb, Cs, Ba, Tl, and Pb). The results clearly demonstrate that pronounced increases of both concentrations and crustal enrichment factors (EFs) are observed in the snowpack at the TGL glacier basin compared to that of the LHG glacier basin, with the highest EFs for Sb and Zn in the TGL basin, whereas with the highest EFs for Sb and Cd in the LHG basin. Compared with other studies in the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding regions, trace element concentration showed gradually decreasing trend from Himalayan regions (southern Tibetan Plateau) to the TGL basin (central Tibetan Plateau), and to the LHG basin (northern Tibetan Plateau), which probably implied the significant influence of atmospheric trace element transport from south Asia to the central Tibetan Plateau. Moreover, EF calculations at two sites showed that most of the heavy metals (e.g., Cu, Zn, Mo, Cd, Sb, and Pb) were from anthropogenic sources and some other elements (e.g., Li, Rb, and Ba) were mainly originated from crustal sources. MODIS atmospheric optical depth (AOD) fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm and CALIOP/CALIPSO transect showed significant influence of atmospheric pollutant transport from south Asia to the Tibetan Plateau, which probably caused the increased concentrations and EFs of trace element deposition in the snowpack on the TGL glacier basin. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Ultradeep Chandra Catalog of X-Ray Point Sources in the Galactic Center Star Cluster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhenlin; Li, Zhiyuan; Morris, Mark R.

2018-04-01

We present an updated catalog of X-ray point sources in the inner 500″ (∼20 pc) of the Galactic center (GC), where the nuclear star cluster (NSC) stands, based on a total of ∼4.5 Ms of Chandra observations taken from 1999 September to 2013 April. This ultradeep data set offers unprecedented sensitivity for detecting X-ray sources in the GC, down to an intrinsic 2–10 keV luminosity of 1.0 × 1031 erg s‑1. A total of 3619 sources are detected in the 2–8 keV band, among which ∼3500 are probable GC sources and ∼1300 are new identifications. The GC sources collectively account for ∼20% of the total 2–8 keV flux from the inner 250″ region where detection sensitivity is the greatest. Taking advantage of this unprecedented sample of faint X-ray sources that primarily traces the old stellar populations in the NSC, we revisit global source properties, including long-term variability, cumulative spectra, luminosity function, and spatial distribution. Based on the equivalent width and relative strength of the iron lines, we suggest that in addition to the arguably predominant population of magnetic cataclysmic variables (CVs), nonmagnetic CVs contribute substantially to the detected sources, especially in the lower-luminosity group. On the other hand, the X-ray sources have a radial distribution closely following the stellar mass distribution in the NSC, but much flatter than that of the known X-ray transients, which are presumably low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) caught in outburst. This, together with the very modest long-term variability of the detected sources, strongly suggests that quiescent LMXBs are a minor (less than a few percent) population.

Some practical universal noiseless coding techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rice, R. F.

1979-01-01

Some practical adaptive techniques for the efficient noiseless coding of a broad class of such data sources are developed and analyzed. Algorithms are designed for coding discrete memoryless sources which have a known symbol probability ordering but unknown probability values. A general applicability of these algorithms to solving practical problems is obtained because most real data sources can be simply transformed into this form by appropriate preprocessing. These algorithms have exhibited performance only slightly above all entropy values when applied to real data with stationary characteristics over the measurement span. Performance considerably under a measured average data entropy may be observed when data characteristics are changing over the measurement span.

Spatial, temporal, and interspecies patterns in fine particulate matter in Texas.

PubMed

Gebhart, Kristi A; Malm, William C; Ashbaugh, Lowell L

2005-11-01

The Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) field study was conducted from July to October 1999 and was followed by several years of modeling and data analyses to examine the causes of haze at Big Bend National Park TX (BBNP). During BRAVO, daily speciated fine (diameter <2.5 microm) particulate concentrations were measured at 37 sites throughout Texas. At the primary receptor site, K-Bar Ranch, there were many additional measurements including a "high-sensitivity" version of the 24-hr fine particulate elemental data. The spatial, temporal, and interspecies patterns in these data are examined here to qualitatively investigate source regions and source types influencing the fine particulate concentrations in Texas with an emphasis on sources of sulfates, the largest contributor to fine mass and light extinction. Peak values of particulate sulfur (S) varied spatially and seasonally. Maximum S was in Northeast Texas during the summer, whereas peak S at BBNP was in the fall. Sulfate acidity at BBNP also varied by month. Sources of Se were evident in Northeast Texas and from the Carbón I and II plants. High S episodes at BBNP during BRAVO had several different trace element characteristics. Carbon concentrations at BBNP during BRAVO were probably mostly urban-related, with arrival from the Houston area likely. The Houston artificial tracer released during the second half of BRAVO was highly correlated with some carbon fractions. There was evidence of the influence of African dust at sites throughout Texas during the summer. Patterns in several trace elements were also examined. Vanadium was associated with air masses from Mexico. Lead concentrations in southern Texas have dropped dramatically over the past several years.

The Effects of Weather Patterns on the Spatio-Temporal Distribution of SO2 over East Asia as Seen from Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunlap, L.; Li, C.; Dickerson, R. R.; Krotkov, N. A.

2015-12-01

Weather systems, particularly mid-latitude wave cyclones, have been known to play an important role in the short-term variation of near-surface air pollution. Ground measurements and model simulations have demonstrated that stagnant air and minimal precipitation associated with high pressure systems are conducive to pollutant accumulation. With the passage of a cold front, built up pollution is transported downwind of the emission sources or washed out by precipitation. This concept is important to note when studying long-term changes in spatio-temporal pollution distribution, but has not been studied in detail from space. In this study, we focus on East Asia (especially the industrialized eastern China), where numerous large power plants and other point sources as well as area sources emit large amounts of SO2, an important gaseous pollutant and a precursor of aerosols. Using data from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) we show that such weather driven distribution can indeed be discerned from satellite data by utilizing probability distribution functions (PDFs) of SO2 column content. These PDFs are multimodal and give insight into the background pollution level at a given location and contribution from local and upwind emission sources. From these PDFs it is possible to determine the frequency for a given region to have SO2 loading that exceeds the background amount. By comparing OMI-observed long-term change in the frequency with meteorological data, we can gain insights into the effects of climate change (e.g., the weakening of Asian monsoon) on regional air quality. Such insight allows for better interpretation of satellite measurements as well as better prediction of future pollution distribution as a changing climate gives way to changing weather patterns.