Secular Trends in Anthropometrics and Physical Fitness of Young Portuguese School-Aged Children.

PubMed

Costa, Aldo Matos; Costa, Mário Jorge; Reis, António Antunes; Ferreira, Sandra; Martins, Júlio; Pereira, Ana

2017-02-27

The purpose of this study was to analyze secular trends in anthropometrics and physical fitness of Portuguese children. A group of 1819 students (881 boys and 938 girls) between 10 and 11 years old was assessed in their 5th and 6th scholar grade throughout a 20 years' time-frame. ANCOVA models were used to analyze variations in anthropometrics (height, weight and body mass index) and physical fitness (sit and reach, curl-up, horizontal jump and sprint time) across four quinquennials (1993 - 1998; 1998 - 2003; 2003 - 2008; 2008 - 2013). Secular trends showed the presence of heavier boys and girls with higher body mass index in the 5th and 6th grade throughout the last 20 years. There was also a presence of taller girls but just until the 3rd quinquennial. Both boys and girls were able to perform better on the core strength test and sprint time but become less flexible over the years. Mean jumping performance remained unchanged for both genders. The present study provides novel data on anthropometrics and physical fitness trends over the last two decades in young Portuguese children, consistent with the results reported in other developed countries. Evidence for the start of a positive secular trend in body mass index and in some physical fitness components over the last two decades among the Portuguese youth.

Craniofacial Secular Change in Recent Mexican Migrants.

PubMed

Spradley, Katherine; Stull, Kyra E; Hefner, Joseph T

2016-01-01

Research by economists suggests that recent Mexican migrants are better educated and have higher socioeconomic status (SES) than previous migrants. Because factors associated with higher SES and improved education can lead to positive secular changes in overall body form, secular changes in the craniofacial complex were analyzed within a recent migrant group from Mexico. The Mexican group represents individuals in the act of migration, not yet influenced by the American environment, and thus can serve as a starting point for future studies of secular change in this population group. The excavation of a historic Hispanic cemetery in Tucson, Arizona, also allows for a comparison between historic Hispanics and recent migrants to explore craniofacial trends over a broad time period, as both groups originate from Mexico. The present research addresses two main questions: (1) Are cranial secular changes evident in recent Mexican migrants? (2) Are historic Hispanics and recent Mexican migrants similar? By studying secular changes within a migrant population group, secular trends may be detected, which will be important for understanding the biological variation of the migrants themselves and will serve as a preliminary investigation of secular change within Mexican migrants. The comparison of a sample of recent Mexican migrants with a historic Hispanic sample, predominantly of Mexican origin, allows us to explore morphological similarities and differences between early and recent Mexicans within the United States. Vault and face size and a total of 82 craniofacial interlandmark distances were used to explore secular changes within the recent Mexican migrants (females, n = 38; males, n = 178) and to explore the morphological similarities between historic Hispanics (females, n = 54; males, n = 58) and recent migrants. Sexes were separated, and multivariate adaptive regression splines and basis splines (quadratic with one knot) were used to assess the direction and magnitude of secular trends for the recent Mexican migrants. Because dates of birth were unavailable for the historic sample, partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) was used to evaluate morphological differences between historic and recent Mexican migrant samples. The data were separated into a training data set and a testing data set to ensure realistic results. Males had eight variables (four positive and four negative) and females had six variables (two positive and four negative) that demonstrated significant differences over time. In the PLS-DA, three components were identified as important in model creation and resulted in a classification accuracy of 87% when applied to a testing sample. The high classification accuracy demonstrates significant morphological differences between the two groups, with the historic Hispanic sample displaying overall larger craniofacial dimensions. While differences in cranial morphology are evident between historic Hispanics and recent Mexican migrants, relatively few positive and negative secular trends were detected within the recent migrant sample.

Secular trends in growth.

PubMed

Fudvoye, Julie; Parent, Anne-Simone

2017-06-01

Human adult height has been increasing world-wide for a century and a half. The rate of increase depends on time and place of measurement. Final height appears to have reached a plateau in Northern European countries but it is still increasing in southern European countries as well as Japan. While mean birth length has not changed recently in industrialized countries, the secular trend finally observed in adult height mostly originates during the first 2 years of life. Secular trend in growth is a marker of public health and provides insights into the interaction between growth and environment. It has been shown to be affected by income, social status, infections and nutrition. While genetic factors cannot explain such rapid changes in average population height, epigenetic factors could be the link between growth and environment. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Secular trends in new childhood epidemics: insights from evolutionary medicine.

PubMed

Brüne, Martin; Hochberg, Ze'ev

2013-10-21

In the last few decades, pediatric medicine has observed a dramatic increase in the prevalence of hitherto rare illnesses, among which obesity, diabetes, allergies and other autoimmune diseases stand out. In addition, secular trends towards earlier onset of puberty and sexual activity contribute to the psychological problems of youth and adolescents. All this has occurred in spite of the improved health care provision for children, yet traditional concepts of medicine have failed to explain these new "epidemics". A recent conference and science school of the European Society of Paediatric Endocrinology (ESPE) in Acre, Israel, has taken up this challenge. Experts across disciplines including medicine, anthropology and developmental psychology discussed potential causes of childhood ill-health from an evolutionary point-of-view. Seen from an evolutionary vantage point, the "epidemics" of childhood obesity, diabetes and psychological dysfunction appear, in part, to be related to a mismatch between ancestral adaptations and novel environmental contingencies. These include changing exposures to pathogens, which impact on the function of the immune system, as well as changing patterns of parenting, which influence the timing of puberty and the risk for developing psychopathology.

Secularization versus religious revival in Eastern Europe: Church institutional resilience, state repression and divergent paths.

PubMed

Northmore-Ball, Ksenia; Evans, Geoffrey

2016-05-01

Despite continuing for over two decades, the debate about the nature of the trends in religiosity in post-Communist Eastern Europe remains unresolved: some arguing that these countries are undergoing the same process of secularization as the West, while others insist that the entire region is experiencing a religious revival. Using national sample surveys from the early 1990s to 2007 to examine the change in demographic predictors of religiosity, we show that Catholic and Orthodox countries are experiencing different trends, the first group displaying evidence of secularization and the second of revival, and that these two different trends are likely to derive from the legacies of state repression and the differing abilities of the churches to resist such repression. We argue that the current literature has thus taken a mistakenly general approach, and that the post-Communist region consists of at least two distinct groups of societies with different trends in religiosity. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Ten-Year Secular Trends in Youth Violence: Results From the Philadelphia Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2003-2013.

PubMed

Pool, Andrew C; Patterson, Freda; Luna, Ingrid Y; Hohl, Bernadette; Bauer, Katherine W

2017-04-01

Youth violence reduction is a public health priority, yet few studies have examined secular trends in violence among urban youth, who may be particularly vulnerable to numerous forms of violence. This study examines 10-year secular trends in the prevalence of violence-related behaviors among Philadelphia high school students. Repeated cross-sectional data were analyzed from 5 waves of the Philadelphia Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) from 2003 to 2013. Sex-specific multivariate regression models were used to examine secular trends in multiple types of violence, accounting for age, race/ethnicity, and sampling strategy. In 2013, the most prevalent violent behavior was physical fighting among boys (38.4%) and girls (32.7%). Among girls, the prevalence of sexual assault and suicide attempts declined between 2003 and 2013 (β = -0.13, p = .04 and β = -0.14, p = .007, respectively). Among boys, significant declines in carrying a weapon (β = -0.31, p < .001), carrying a gun (β = -0.16, p = .01), and physical fighting (β = -0.35, p = .001) were observed. Whereas the prevalence of some forms of violence stabilized or declined among Philadelphia youth during 2003-2013 time span, involvement in violence-related behaviors remains common among this population. Continued surveillance and evidence-based violence reduction strategies are needed to address violence among urban youth. © 2017, American School Health Association.

Secular trends of salted fish consumption and nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a multi-jurisdiction ecological study in 8 regions from 3 continents

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Despite salted fish being a classical risk factor of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC), whether secular trends in salted fish consumption worldwide accounted for changes in NPC rates were unknown. The relationship between vegetable and cigarette consumption to NPC risk worldwide were also largely uncertain. We investigated the longitudinal trends in standardised NPC incidence/mortality rates across 8 regions and their associations with secular trends in salted fish, vegetable and tobacco consumptions. Methods Age standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of NPC were obtained from the WHO cancer mortality database and Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Per capita consumption of salted fish, tobacco and vegetables in Hong Kong and 7 countries (China, Finland, Japan, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom and United States) were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO) and Hong Kong Trade and Census Statistics. Pearson correlation and multivariate analysis were performed to examine both crude and adjusted associations. Results There were markedly decreasing trends of NPC ASIR and ASMR in Hong Kong over the past three decades, which were correlated with corresponding secular changes in salted fish consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years : ASIR = 0.729 (male), 0.674 (female); ASMR = 0.943 (male), 0.622 (female), all p < 0.05 except for female ASMR). However such associations no longer correlated with adjustments for decreasing tobacco and increasing vegetable consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years: ASIR = 2.007 (male), 0.339 (female), ASMR = 0.289 (male), 1.992 (female), all p > 0.05). However, there were no clear or consistent patterns in relations between NPC ASIR and ASMR with salted fish consumption across 7 regions in 3 continents. Conclusions Our results do not support the notion that changes in salted fish consumption had played an important role in explaining secular trends of NPC rates in Hong Kong and worldwide. Further studies should explore other lifestyle and genetic factors. However, our findings do support the potentially protective effects of vegetable consumption against NPC. PMID:23782497

Secular trends of salted fish consumption and nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a multi-jurisdiction ecological study in 8 regions from 3 continents.

PubMed

Lau, Hiu-Ying; Leung, Chit-Ming; Chan, Yap-Hang; Lee, Anne Wing-Mui; Kwong, Dora Lai-Wan; Lung, Maria Li; Lam, Tai-Hing

2013-06-19

Despite salted fish being a classical risk factor of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC), whether secular trends in salted fish consumption worldwide accounted for changes in NPC rates were unknown. The relationship between vegetable and cigarette consumption to NPC risk worldwide were also largely uncertain. We investigated the longitudinal trends in standardised NPC incidence/mortality rates across 8 regions and their associations with secular trends in salted fish, vegetable and tobacco consumptions. Age standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of NPC were obtained from the WHO cancer mortality database and Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Per capita consumption of salted fish, tobacco and vegetables in Hong Kong and 7 countries (China, Finland, Japan, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom and United States) were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation (FAO) and Hong Kong Trade and Census Statistics. Pearson correlation and multivariate analysis were performed to examine both crude and adjusted associations. There were markedly decreasing trends of NPC ASIR and ASMR in Hong Kong over the past three decades, which were correlated with corresponding secular changes in salted fish consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years : ASIR = 0.729 (male), 0.674 (female); ASMR = 0.943 (male), 0.622 (female), all p < 0.05 except for female ASMR). However such associations no longer correlated with adjustments for decreasing tobacco and increasing vegetable consumption per capita (Pearson r for 10 cumulative years: ASIR = 2.007 (male), 0.339 (female), ASMR = 0.289 (male), 1.992 (female), all p > 0.05). However, there were no clear or consistent patterns in relations between NPC ASIR and ASMR with salted fish consumption across 7 regions in 3 continents. Our results do not support the notion that changes in salted fish consumption had played an important role in explaining secular trends of NPC rates in Hong Kong and worldwide. Further studies should explore other lifestyle and genetic factors. However, our findings do support the potentially protective effects of vegetable consumption against NPC.

Secular trends in the geologic record and the supercontinent cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradley, Dwight C.

2011-01-01

Geologic secular trends are used to refine the timetable of supercontinent assembly, tenure, and breakup. The analysis rests on what is meant by the term supercontinent, which here is defined broadly as a grouping of formerly dispersed continents. To avoid the artificial pitfall of an all-or-nothing definition, quantitative measures of “supercontinentality” are presented: the number of continents, and the area of the largest continent, which both can be gleaned from global paleogeographic maps for the Phanerozoic. For the secular trends approach to be viable in the deep past when the very existence of supercontinents is debatable and reconstructions are fraught with problems, it must first be calibrated in the Phanerozoic against the well-constrained Pangea supercontinent cycle. The most informative geologic variables covering both the Phanerozoic and Precambrian are the abundances of passive margins and of detrital zircons. Both fluctuated with size of the largest continent during the Pangea supercontinent cycle and can be quantified back to the Neoarchean. The tenure of Pangea was a time represented in the rock record by few zircons and few passive margins. Thus, previously documented minima in the abundance of detrital zircons (and orogenic granites) during the Precambrian (Condie et al., 2009a, Gondwana Research 15, 228–242) now can be more confidently interpreted as marking the tenures of supercontinents. The occurrences of carbonatites, granulites, eclogites, and greenstone-belt deformation events also appear to bear the imprint of Precambrian supercontinent cyclicity. Together, these secular records are consistent with the following scenario. The Neoarchean continental assemblies of Superia and Sclavia broke up at ca. 2300 and ca. 2090 Ma, respectively. Some of their fragments collided to form Nuna by about 1750 Ma; Nuna then grew by lateral accretion of juvenile arcs during the Mesoproterozoic, and was involved in a series of collisions at ca. 1000 Ma to form Rodinia. Rodinia broke up in stages from ca. 1000 to ca. 520 Ma. Before Rodinia had completely come apart, some of its pieces had already been reassembled in a new configuration, Gondwana, which was completed by 530 Ma. Gondwana later collided with Laurentia, Baltica, and Siberia to form Pangea by about 300 Ma. Breakup of Pangea began at about 180 Ma (Early Jurassic) and continues today. In the suggested scenario, no supercontinent cycle in Earth history corresponded to the ideal, in which all the continents were gathered together, then broke apart, then reassembled in a new configuration. Nuna and Gondwana ended their tenures not by breakup but by collision and name change; Rodinia's assembly overlapped in time with its disassembly; and Pangea spalled Tethyan microcontinents throughout much of its tenure. Many other secular trends show a weak or uneven imprint of the supercontinent cycle, no imprint at all. Instead, these secular trends together reveal aspects of the shifting background against which the supercontinents came and went, making each cycle unique. Global heat production declined; plate tectonics sped up through the Proterozoic and slowed down through the Phanerozoic; the atmosphere and oceans became oxidized; life emerged as a major geochemical agent; some rock types went extinct or nearly so (BIF, massif-type anorthosite, komatiite); and other rock types came into existence or became common (blueschists, bioclastic limestone, coal).

Joint spatiotemporal variability of global sea surface temperatures and global Palmer drought severity index values

USGS Publications Warehouse

Apipattanavis, S.; McCabe, G.J.; Rajagopalan, B.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2009-01-01

Dominant modes of individual and joint variability in global sea surface temperatures (SST) and global Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) values for the twentieth century are identified through a multivariate frequency domain singular value decomposition. This analysis indicates that a secular trend and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominant modes of variance shared among the global datasets. For the SST data the secular trend corresponds to a positive trend in Indian Ocean and South Atlantic SSTs, and a negative trend in North Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs. The ENSO reconstruction shows a strong signal in the tropical Pacific, North Pacific, and Indian Ocean regions. For the PDSI data, the secular trend reconstruction shows high amplitudes over central Africa including the Sahel, whereas the regions with strong ENSO amplitudes in PDSI are the southwestern and northwestern United States, South Africa, northeastern Brazil, central Africa, the Indian subcontinent, and Australia. An additional significant frequency, multidecadal variability, is identified for the Northern Hemisphere. This multidecadal frequency appears to be related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The multidecadal frequency is statistically significant in the Northern Hemisphere SST data, but is statistically nonsignificant in the PDSI data.

Secular trend in age at menarche in indigenous and nonindigenous women in Chile.

PubMed

Ossa, X M; Munoz, S; Amigo, H; Bangdiwala, S I

2010-01-01

To estimate the secular trend in age at menarche, comparing indigenous and nonindigenous women, and its relationship with socio-demographic, family and nutritional factors. A study (historical cohorts) of 688 indigenous and nonindigenous women, divided into four birth cohorts (1960-69, 1970-79, 1980-89, and 1990-96) in an area in central southern Chile was carried out. Data and measurements were collected by health professionals using a previously validated questionnaire. Age at menarche was self-reported (recall). Adjusted differences among cohorts were estimated using a multivariate regression model. A secular trend (P < 0.001) in age at menarche was found in both ethnic groups, with no significant differences between them (P > 0.05). In an adjusted model, a reduction in age at menarche was estimated at 3.7 months per decade between 1960 and 1990. This trend was moderated by higher socio-economic level, smaller number of siblings, and cohabitation with a single parent during infancy. The trend has occurred in a steady progression over time in indigenous women, whereas in nonindigenous women, it was slow initially but has accelerated in recent years. Nonindigenous women have maintained a slightly lower age of menarche than their indigenous counterparts. (c) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

SECULAR GROWTH AND MATURATION CHANGES IN HUNGARY IN RELATION TO SOCIOECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES.

PubMed

Bodzsar, Eva B; Zsakai, Annamaria; Mascie-Taylor, Nicholas

2016-03-01

This paper analyses the secular changes in the body development patterns of Hungarian children between the 1910s and the beginning of the 2000s in relation to socioeconomic and demographic changes in the country. Individual growth data of children were available from two national growth studies (1983-86, 2003-06), while sample-size weighted means of children's body dimensions were collected through regional studies between the 1920s and 1970s. Gross domestic product, Gini index, life expectancy at birth and under-5 mortality rate were used to assess the changes in economic status, income inequalities of the society and the population's general health status, respectively. Secular changes in food consumption habits were also examined. The positive Hungarian secular changes in socioeconomic status were associated with a continuous increase in children's body dimensions. The negative socioeconomic changes reflected only in wartime and post-war periods of children's growth, and the considerable socioeconomic changes at the beginning of the 1990s did not appear to influence the positive trend in children's growth. The positive secular trend in stature and body mass did not level off at the beginning of the 2000s: the socioeconomic conditions that support optimal growth and maturation could improve in Hungary.

The End of the Flynn Effect?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sundet, Jon Martin; Barlaug, Dag G.; Torjussen, Tore M.

2004-01-01

The present paper reports secular trends in the mean scores of a language, mathematics, and a Raven-like test together with a combined general ability (GA) score among Norwegian (male) conscripts tested from the mid 1950s to 2002 (birth cohorts approximately equal to 1935-1984). Secular gains in standing height (indicating improved nutrition and…

Injury deaths in the adolescent population of Finland: a 43-year secular trend analysis between 1971 and 2013.

PubMed

Parkkari, Jari; Sievänen, Harri; Niemi, Seppo; Mattila, Ville M; Kannus, Pekka

2016-08-01

Injuries are a major public health problem worldwide, being the leading cause of death in children and adolescents in developed countries. However, knowledge on recent secular trends in injury deaths of adolescents is sparse. Using Official Cause-of-Death Statistics of Finland, we examined the nationwide trends in the age- and sex-specific incidence rates of fatal injuries among 10-14-year-old and 15-19-year-old adolescents in Finland between 1971 and 2013. The incidence rate of fatal injuries decreased considerably in both age groups during the 43-year follow-up period. The decline in injury deaths was mainly due to decreased deaths in traffic accidents. The number of drownings reached the ultimate goal-that is, there were no drownings in Finnish 10-19-year-old adolescents in 2013. The rates of intentional injury deaths remained stable in girls, while in 15-19-year-old boys a decreasing trend was evident. During the deep economic depression in 1990, the incidence of suicide in 15-19-year-old boys was as high as 40.1. At that time, boys' suicide risk was 7.4 times higher than that of girls. Since then, boys' risk for suicide has clearly decreased and was 1.6 times higher than the corresponding risk in girls in 2013. The incidence rate of fatal injuries decreased considerably in Finnish adolescents during the period 1971-2013. The clearest change occurred in road traffic injuries and drownings. The rates of intentional injury deaths remained unaltered in girls while 15-19-year-old boys showed a decreasing trend. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Secular Trends in the Incidence of Dementia in a Multi-Ethnic Community.

PubMed

Noble, James M; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Andrews, Howard; Tang, Ming-Xin; Mayeux, Richard

2017-10-03

Determination of secular trends in cognitive aging is important for prioritization of resources, services, and research in aging populations. Prior studies have identified declining dementia incidence associated with changes in cardiovascular risk factors and increased educational attainment. However, few studies have examined these factors in multi-ethnic cohorts. To identify secular trends in the incidence rate of dementia in an elderly population. Participants in this study were drawn from the Washington Heights-Inwood Columbia Aging Project, a multi-ethnic cohort study of northern Manhattan residents aged 65 years and older. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine differences in the incidence of dementia in cohorts recruited in 1992 and 1999, with age at dementia or age at last follow-up visit as the "time-to-event" variable. Overall, there was a 41% reduction in the hazard ratio for dementia among participants in the 1999 cohort compared with those in the 1992 cohort, adjusting for age, sex, race, and baseline memory complaints (HR = 0.59). The reduction in incidence was greatest among non-Hispanic Whites and African-Americans and lowest among Hispanic participants (HRs = 0.60, 0.52 and 0.64, respectively), and was associated with increases in level of educational attainment, especially among African-Americans. Reduction in incidence of dementia was also greater among persons 75 years or older than among younger participants (HR = 0.52 versus HR = 0.69). Our results support previous findings that secular trends in dementia incidence are changing, including in aging minority populations.

Timing and secular trend of pubertal development in Beijing girls.

PubMed

Chen, Fang-Fang; Wang, You-Fa; Mi, Jie

2014-02-01

Historical research is limited in changes in pubertal development in Chinese girls. We aimed to identify the timing of pubertal characteristics and the secular trend of menarche age among Beijing girls from the 1980s through the 2000s. Six data sets were analyzed, including the Beijing Child and Adolescent Metabolic Syndrome study in 2004, where 9778 Bejing girls aged 6-18 years were studied. The Fetal Origins of Adult Disease study provided retrospective menarche age from 1940 through 1960. Other four studies were conducted in Beijing to obtain supplementary information to assess secular trend in menarche age. Linear regression method was used to analyze the data. Among Beijing girls in 2004, the median age at menarche was 12.1 years, which was 0.6 years earlier in urban than in rural areas. The median age at Breast Tanner Stage 2 was 9.5 ± 1.2 years, representing 9.4 ± 1.1 years and 9.6 ± 1.2 years for urban and rural girls, respectively. In contrast, the median age at Pubic Hair Tanner Stage 2 was 11.1 ± 1.1 years, representing 10.8 ± 1.1 and 11.4 ± 1.1 years for urban and rural girls, respectively. The menarche age of urban girls decreased by 4.2 months per decade, and that of rural girls by 9.6 months per decade from 1980 to 2004. Urban girls mature earlier than rural girls in Beijing. A secular trend towards earlier menarche was observed between the 1980s and the 2000s.

[Secular trend of growth in Blumenau, Santa Catarina State].

PubMed

Soncini, Ana Silveira; Vargas, Deisi Maria; Arena, Mariana Garcia Lopes; Arena, Luiz Fernando Garcia Lopes

2011-01-01

Secular trend of growth refers to any change of the corporal size in determined population group in long periods of time. The objective of this work is to study the secular tendency of growth in natural height among recruits in Blumenau, Santa Catarina State, between the years of 1963 and 2007. This is a transversal, retrospective and analytical study. Young recruits, aged 18 to 20 were chosen as the population. A standardized database was used on individual records with the first 40 records of each year being selected. Data from 1963 to 2007 were collected and separated per decades. A margin of error not higher than 3.5% was used as a demonstration, which resulted in a sample of 600 individuals. The t-test was used to compare the averages of different decades. The results showed an increase of 7 cm in the height of the population in Blumenau in the last 50 years. The positive trend that is occurring in our country in the most recent evaluations can be attributed to better sanitary, economic and social conditions. The secular tendency of growth in height was positive in the municipality of Blumenau. It was found that the population increased 7 cm in the final height in the last 50 years with a growth rate of 0.14 cm/year or 1.4 cm/decade.

Secular trends in hip fractures worldwide: opposing trends East versus West.

PubMed

Ballane, Ghada; Cauley, Jane A; Luckey, Marjorie M; Fuleihan, Ghada El-Hajj

2014-08-01

Despite wide variations in hip rates fractures worldwide, reasons for such differences are not clear. Furthermore, secular trends in the age-specific hip fracture rates are changing the world map of this devastating disease, with the highest rise projected to occur in developing countries. The aim of our investigation is to systematically characterize secular trends in hip fractures worldwide, examine new data for various ethnic groups in the United States, evidence for divergent temporal patterns, and investigate potential contributing factors for the observed change in their epidemiology. All studies retrieved through a complex Medline Ovid search between 1966 and 2013 were examined. For each selected study, we calculated the percent annual change in age-standardized hip fracture rates de-novo. Although occurring at different time points, trend breaks in hip fracture incidence occurred in most Western countries and Oceania. After a steep rise in age-adjusted rates in these regions, a decrease became evident sometimes between the mid-seventies and nineties, depending on the country. Conversely, the data is scarce in Asia and South America, with evidence for a continuous rise in hip fracture rates, with the exception of Hong-Kong and Taiwan that seem to follow Western trends. The etiologies of these secular patterns in both the developed and the developing countries have not been fully elucidated, but the impact of urbanization is at least one plausible explanation. Data presented here show close parallels between rising rates of urbanization and hip fractures across disparate geographic locations and cultures. Once the proportion of the urban population stabilized, hip fracture rates also stabilize or begin to decrease perhaps due to the influence of other factors such as birth cohort effects, changes in bone mineral density and BMI, osteoporosis medication use and/or lifestyle interventions such as smoking cessation, improvement in nutritional status and fall prevention. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Secular trends in meal and snack patterns among adolescents from 1999 to 2010

PubMed Central

Larson, Nicole; Story, Mary; Eisenberg, Marla E.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2015-01-01

Background Linkages between snack patterns, diet, and obesity in adolescents likely depend on the consumption of main meals, how often snacks are prepared away from home, and whether energy-dense, nutrient-poor snack foods and sugary drinks are frequently consumed. Nutritional interventions need to be informed by an understanding of how secular changes in the contribution of snacks to dietary intake may be related to changes in meal frequency as well as how these trends differ by sociodemographics. Objectives To examine secular trends from 1999 to 2010 in meal and snack patterns among adolescents. Design A repeated cross-sectional design was used. Participants/setting Participants from Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN secondary schools completed classroom-administered surveys and food frequency questionnaires in 1999 (n=2,598) and 2010 (n=2,540). Main outcome measures Weekly meal frequencies; number of snacks consumed on school and vacation/weekend days; frequent consumption of snacks prepared away from home (≥3 times/week); and daily servings of energy-dense, nutrient-poor food/drinks that are commonly consumed at snack occasions. Statistical analyses performed Trends from 1999 to 2010 were examined using inverse probability weighting to control for differences in sociodemographic characteristics in the two samples. Results Mean frequencies of breakfast and lunch increased modestly in the overall population (both P<0.001), and there were decreases in the number of snacks consumed on schools days (P<0.001) and vacation/weekend days (P=0.003). Although there was no change in the proportion of adolescents who reported frequent consumption of snacks prepared away from home, there was a secular decrease in energy-dense, nutrient-poor food/drink consumption (P<0.001). Sociodemographic differences in the identified trends were evident. Conclusions The observed pattern of sociodemographic differences in meal and snack trends among adolescents suggests the need for targeted efforts to ensure public health messages reach low-income and ethnic/racial minority population subgroups most vulnerable to poor nutrition and the development of obesity. PMID:26482095

Secular trends in Cherokee cranial morphology: Eastern vs Western bands.

PubMed

Sutphin, Rebecca; Ross, Ann H; Jantz, Richard L

2014-01-01

The research objective was to examine if secular trends can be identified for cranial data commissioned by Boas in 1892, specifically for cranial breadth and cranial length of the Eastern and Western band Cherokee who experienced environmental hardships. Multiple regression analysis was used to test the degree of relationship between each of the cranial measures: cranial length, cranial breadth and cephalic index, along with predictor variables (year-of-birth, location, sex, admixture); the model revealed a significant difference for all craniometric variables. Additional regression analysis was performed with smoothing Loess plots to observe cranial length and cranial breadth change over time (year-of-birth) separately for Eastern and Western Cherokee band females and males born between 1783-1874. This revealed the Western and Eastern bands show a decrease in cranial length over time. Eastern band individuals maintain a relatively constant head breadth, while Western Band individuals show a sharp decline beginning around 1860. These findings support negative secular trend occurring for both Cherokee bands where the environment made a detrimental impact; this is especially marked with the Western Cherokee band.

An Analysis of the Strategic Planning Efforts of (Arch)Dioceses with Similar Demographic Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Semmler, Carl A.

2016-01-01

The population of the Catholic elementary schools has been on the downward trend for over half a century. Various Catholic (arch)dioceses have responded by creating strategic plans for their elementary and secondary institutions of education. Shifts in demographics and population migration have been noted in both secular and non-secular data.…

The Full-Time Workweek in the United States, 1900-1970

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kniesner, Thomas J.

1976-01-01

The average workweek of full-time workers declined by 35 percent between 1900 and 1940, but has not changed significnatly since then, and the secular rigidity of the full-time workweek remains. An expanded model which incorporates the effects of growth in education and in the female wage explains the post-1940 secular trend. (Editor/HD)

Socioeconomic development and secular trend in height in China.

PubMed

Zong, Xin-Nan; Li, Hui; Wu, Hua-Hong; Zhang, Ya-Qin

2015-12-01

The objective of this study was to examine the effect of socioeconomic development on secular trend in height among children and adolescents in China. Body height and spermarcheal/menarcheal ages were obtained from two periodic large-scale national representative surveys in China between 1975 and 2010. Chinese socioeconomic development indicators were obtained from the United Nations world population prospects. The effects of plausible determinants were assessed by partial least-squares regression. The average height of children and adolescents improved in tandem with socioeconomic development, without any tendency to plateau. The increment of height trend presented larger around puberty than earlier or later ages. The partial least-squares regressions with gross national income, life expectancy and spermarcheal/menarcheal age accounted for increment of height trend from 88.3% to 98.3% for males and from 82.9% to 97.3% for females in adolescence. Further, through the analysis of the variable importance for projection, the contributions of gross national income and life expectancy on height increment were confirmed to be significant in childhood and adolescence, and the contribution of spermarcheal/menarcheal age was superior to both of them in adolescence. We concluded that positive secular trend in height in China was significantly associated with socioeconomic status (GNI as indicator) and medical and health conditions (life expectancy as indicator). Earlier onset of spermarche and menarche proved to be an important role in larger increment of the trend over time of height at puberty for a population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short-term secular change in height, body mass and Tanner-Whitehouse 3 skeletal maturity of Madeira youth, Portugal.

PubMed

Freitas, Duarte; Malina, Robert M; Maia, José; Lefevre, Johan; Stasinopoulos, Mikis; Gouveia, Élvio; Claessens, Albrecht; Thomis, Martine; Lausen, Berthold

2012-05-01

Secular trends in height and weight are reasonably well documented in Europe. Corresponding observations for skeletal maturation are lacking. To assess secular trends in height, body mass and skeletal maturity of Portuguese children and adolescents and to provide updated reference values for skeletal maturity scores (SMSs). Data for 2856 children and adolescents of 4-17 years, 1412 boys and 1444 girls, from The 'Madeira Growth Study' (MGS; 1996-1998) and from the'Healthy Growth of Madeira Children Study' (CRES; 2006) were used. Height and body mass were measured. Skeletal maturity was assessed with the Tanner-Whitehouse 2 and 3 methods. Children from CRES were taller and heavier than peers from MGS. Differences in height reached 5.8 cm in boys and 5.5 cm in girls. RUS SMSs did not differ consistently between surveys boys, while higher RUS scores were observed in CRES girls. Adult RUS SMSs for MGS and CRES combined were attained at 15.8 years in boys and 14.8 years in girls. Corresponding ages for adult Carpal SMSs were 14.4 and 14.0, respectively. The short-term trends for height and mass were not entirely consistent with the trends in RUS and Carpal SMSs and SAs.

Secular trends are associated with the demographic and epidemiologic transitions in an indigenous community in Oaxaca, Southern Mexico.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Little, Bertis B; Peña Reyes, Maria Eugenia

2018-01-01

To test the hypothesis that secular changes in body size and age at menarche are related to the demographic and epidemiologic transitions in an indigenous community in Oaxaca, southern Mexico. Data were derived from surveys of a Zapotec-speaking community conducted between 1968 and 2000. Segmented linear regressions of height, weight, BMI and recalled age at menarche on year of birth in cohorts of adults born before and after the demographic transition were used to evaluate secular changes. Corresponding comparisons of body size (MANCOVA controlling for age) and age at menarche (status quo, probit analysis) were done for samples of children and adolescents born before and after the epidemiological transition. Height and weight increased in adults born after the demographic transition (mid-1950s), and especially in children and adolescents born after the epidemiological transition (mid-1980s). Age at menarche also decreased significantly in women born after the demographic transition, but at a more rapid estimated rate in adolescents born after the epidemiological transition. Secular gains in body weight were proportional to those for height among children and adolescents, but adults, males more so than females, gained proportionally more weight. The secular trend in height in adults of both sexes was associated with the decade of the demographic transition in the mid-1950s. Significant secular gains in size attained and age at menarche occurred in children and youth born after the epidemiologic transition which likely reflected improved health and nutritional conditions since the mid-1980s. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

2017-10-01

Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to mixed-layer oceanic model. The rainfall anomaly (with respect to control simulation), forced by the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly and averaged over the 30-year period, exhibits prevalence of dry conditions over East and equatorial Africa in agreement with observation. The atmospheric response to secular SST warming anomaly led to divergent flow at low levels and subsidence at the upper troposphere over regions north of 5° S on the continent and vice versa over the Indian Ocean. This surface difluence over East Africa, in addition to its role in suppressing convective activity, deprives the region of moisture supply from the Indian Ocean as well as the Atlantic and Congo basins.

Secular trends in salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults, 1997-2011.

PubMed

Yu, Lianlong; Li, Suyun; Zhao, Jinshan; Zhang, Junli; Wang, Liansen; Wang, Kebo

2018-03-01

Salt and soy sauce are the main ways of sodium intake in Chinese dietary. In this study, we used the data of the China Health and Nutrition Surveys to describe the secular trends of salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults from 1997 to 2011. Trends were tested by multiple linear regression models. During the past 14 years, the consumption of sodium, salt and soy sauce intake values decreased significantly across the six study periods (p < .0001) among both men and women. Averaged salt values decreased by 4.9 g/d in men and 4.1 g/d in women. Mean soy sauce intake values decreased by 9.0 g/d among men and 7.3 g/d among women. Similar significant trends were observed in all age groups, activity levels and regions (p < .0001).

Intersection of economics, history, and human biology: secular trends in stature in nineteenth-century Sioux Indians.

PubMed

Prince, J M

1995-06-01

An unusual confluence of historical factors may be responsible for nineteenth-century Sioux being able to sustain high statures despite enduring adverse conditions during the early reservation experience. An exceptionally long span of Dakota Sioux history was examined for secular trends using a cross-sectional design. Two primary sources were used: One anthropometric data set was collected in the late nineteenth century under the direction of Franz Boas, and another set was collected by James R. Walker in the early twentieth century. Collectively, the data represent the birth years between 1820 and 1880 for adult individuals 20 years old or older. Adult heights (n = 1197) were adjusted for aging effects and regressed on age, with each data set and each sex analyzed separately. Tests for differences between the adult means of age cohorts by decade of birth (1820-1880) were also carried out. Only one sample of adults showed any convincing secular trend (p < 0.05): surprisingly, a positive linear trend for Walker's sample of adult males. This sample was also the one sample of adults that showed significant differences between age cohorts. The failure to find any negative secular trend in this population of Amerindians is remarkable, given the drastic socioeconomic changes that occurred with the coming of the reservation period (ca. 1868). Comparisons with contemporary white Americans show that the Sioux remained consistently taller than whites well into the reservation period and that Sioux children (Prince 1989) continued to grow at highly favorable rates during this time of severe conditions. A possible explanation for these findings involves the relatively favorable level of subsistence support received by most of the Sioux from the US government, as stipulated by various treaties. Conservative estimates suggest that the Sioux may have been able to sustain net levels of per capita annual meat consumption that exceeded the US average for several years before 1893.

Secular trends in consultations for asthma in early childhood, the 16 administrative regions of Morocco, 2004-2012.

PubMed

Sadeq, Mina; Abouqal, Redouane; ElMarnissi, Abdelilah

2015-09-17

Little is known about asthma trend in Morocco, particularly in early childhood. Furthermore, when dealing with asthma related environmental risk factors in Morocco, decision-making focus is in one region R9, while 16 regions make up the country. This work aims at studying 9-year trends in consultations for asthma in under-5 children in the 16 individual regions with respect to area and age group. Direct method use, based on the only available national data from the open access files of the ministry of health, standardizing data for three age groups (0-11 ; 12-23 and 24-59 months). We compared age-adjusted rates, stratified by area (urban and rural areas) within each region (Wilcoxon's signed ranks test), and between all regions emphasizing on R9. Secular trends are examined (Kendall's rank correlation test). We also compared directly standardized rates as a rate ratio for two study populations (that of R9 and any region with highest rates). We finally compared rates by age group in selected regions. Secular increase in prevalence rates was shown in both urban and rural Morocco, particularly in urban areas of R10, R14, R16 and R5, and in rural areas of R14 and R16. In urban area of R10 (the highest age-adjusted prevalence rates area) the rates showed secular increase from 6.82 at 95 % CI = [6.44 to 7.19] per 1000 childhood population in 2004 to 20.91 at 95 % CI = [20.26 to 21.56] per 1000 childhood population in 2012 (P = 0.001). Rates were higher in urban than rural Morocco, particularly in R8, R9, R10, R14, R15 ; R6 was an exception. Rates in R10 were 1.63 higher than that in R9 in 2004 and rose to be 2.55 higher in 2012 ; rates in urban area of R14, about 3 times lower than that in R9 in 2004, increased to be similar in 2012. The highest-prevalence age group varied according to region and area. The regions that worth decision making attention are the urban areas of R10 (the highest prevalence rates Moroccan area, showing continuous increase), of R9, of R14 and the rural area of R6. The rates in the urban area of R9 (a current continuous decision making focus) remained high but stable within the study period and less important than those in R10. Environmental factors (biological particules, non-biological particules or gazes) are suspected.The potential unavailability of treatment at regular basis at the primary health care centers may reduce frequency of consultations for asthma in early childhood : outpatients may consult only if asthma causes problems in an attempt to get free medicines ; chances of outpatients' follow-up by the primary health care center's physicians are therefore reduced and optimal asthma control is not achieved. Social, health care policy and environmental factors, to which decision-making has to be responsive, are suspected to be affecting both frequency of and time secular trend in consultations for asthma in early childhood in Morocco.

Effects of socioeconomic factors on secular trends in suicide in Japan, 1953-86.

PubMed

Motohashi, Y

1991-04-01

The effects of socioeconomic factors on secular trends in suicide rates in Japan for the periods 1953-72 and 1973-86 were investigated using twelve socioeconomic indicators. Multiple regression analysis showed that the socioeconomic indicators affecting suicide rates were not identical in the two periods. The rates in both sexes in 1953-72 were closely related to unemployment rate and the labour force but between 1973 and 1986, divorce rate and the proportion in tertiary industry were most influential. The changes reflect the socioeconomic changes in industrial structure in Japan in transition from an industrial to a service economy.

The effect of secular trends in the classroom furniture mismatch: support for continuous update of school furniture standards.

PubMed

Castellucci, H I; Arezes, P M; Molenbroek, J F M; Viviani, C

2015-01-01

In order to create safer schools, the Chilean authorities published a Standard regarding school furniture dimensions. The aims of this study are twofold: to verify the existence of positive secular trend within the Chilean student population and to evaluate the potential mismatch between the anthropometric characteristics and the school furniture dimensions defined by the mentioned standard. The sample consists of 3078 subjects. Eight anthropometric measures were gathered, together with six furniture dimensions from the mentioned standard. There is an average increase for some dimensions within the Chilean student population over the past two decades. Accordingly, almost 18% of the students will find the seat height to be too high. Seat depth will be considered as being too shallow for 42.8% of the students. It can be concluded that the Chilean student population has increased in stature, which supports the need to revise and update the data from the mentioned Standard. Positive secular trend resulted in high levels of mismatch if furniture is selected according to the current Chilean Standard which uses data collected more than 20 years ago. This study shows that school furniture standards need to be updated over time.

Secular Change and Inter-annual Variability of the Gulf Stream Position, 1993-2013, 70°-55°W

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisagni, J. J.; Gangopadhyay, A.

2016-12-01

The Gulf Stream (GS) is the northeastward-flowing surface limb of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) "conveyer belt" that flows towards Europe and the Nordic Seas. Changes in the GS position after its separation from the coast at Cape Hatteras, i.e., from 75°W to 50°W, may be key to understanding the AMOC, sea level variability and ecosystem behavior along the east coast of North America. In this study we compare secular change and inter-annual variability (IAV) of annual mean Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW) position with equator-ward Labrador Current (LC) transport along the southwestern Grand Banks near 52° W using 21 years (1993-2013) of satellite altimeter data. Results at 70°, 65°, 60° and 55° W show a southward secular trend for the GSNW, decreasing to the west. IAV of de-trended GSNW position residuals also decreases to the west. The long-term secular trend of annual mean upper layer LC transport increases near 52° W. Furthermore, IAV of LC transport residuals near 52° W is significantly correlated with GSNW position residuals at 55° W at a lag of +1-year. Spectral analysis reveals inter-annual peaks at 5-7 years and 2-3 years for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), GSNW (65°-55°W) and LC transport for 1993-2013. A volume calculation using the LC rms residual of +1.04 Sv near 52° W results in an estimated GSNW residual of 79 km, or 63% of the observed 125.6 km (1.13°) rms value at 55° W. A similar volume calculation using the positive long-term, upper-layer LC transport trend accounts for 68% of the observed southward shift of the GSNW over the 1993-2013 period. Our work provides observational evidence of direct interaction between the upper layers of the sub-polar and sub-tropical gyres within the North Atlantic over secular and inter-annual time scales as suggested by previous workers.

Evidence of Secular Changes in Physical Activity and Fitness, but Not Adiposity and Diet, in Welsh 12-13 Year Olds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Non E.; Williams, D. R. R.; Rowe, David A.; Davies, Bruce; Baker, Julien S.

2010-01-01

Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate secular trends in selected cardiovascular disease risk factors (namely adiposity, physical activity, physical fitness and diet) in a sample of Welsh 12-13 year olds between 2002 and 2007. Design: Cross-sectional. Setting: A secondary school based in South West Wales. Method: Two studies in…

Faith and Reason in a Post Secular Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radford, Mike

2012-01-01

The problems that this article seeks to address are those that are raised in the context of the bilateralism that is established when we think in terms of secularism as primarily orientated towards reason and post secularism, towards faith. The objective of the article is to show that the distinction between the two can be collapsed. Post…

Secular Trends in Meal and Snack Patterns among Adolescents from 1999 to 2010.

PubMed

Larson, Nicole; Story, Mary; Eisenberg, Marla E; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2016-02-01

Linkages between snack patterns, diet, and obesity in adolescents likely depend on the consumption of main meals, how often snacks are prepared away from home, and whether energy-dense, nutrient-poor snack foods and sugary drinks are frequently consumed. Nutrition-based interventions need to be informed by an understanding of how secular changes in the contribution of snacks to dietary intake may be related to changes in meal frequency as well as how these trends differ by sociodemographic characteristics. To examine secular trends from 1999 to 2010 in meal and snack patterns among adolescents. A repeated cross-sectional design was used. Participants from Minneapolis/St Paul, MN, secondary schools completed classroom-administered surveys and food frequency questionnaires in 1999 (n=2,598) and 2010 (n=2,540). Weekly meal frequencies; number of snacks consumed on school and vacation/weekend days; frequent consumption of snacks prepared away from home (≥3 times/week); and daily servings of energy-dense, nutrient-poor food/drinks that are commonly consumed at snack occasions. Trends from 1999 to 2010 were examined using inverse probability weighting to control for differences in sociodemographic characteristics in the two samples. Mean frequencies of breakfast and lunch increased modestly in the overall population (both P values <0.001), and there were decreases in the number of snacks consumed on schools days (P<0.001) and vacation/weekend days (P=0.003). Although there was no change in the proportion of adolescents who reported frequent consumption of snacks prepared away from home, there was a secular decrease in energy-dense, nutrient-poor food/drink consumption (P<0.001). Sociodemographic differences in the identified trends were evident. The observed pattern of sociodemographic characteristic differences in meal and snack trends among adolescents suggests the need for targeted efforts to ensure public health messages reach low-income and ethnic/racial minority population subgroups most vulnerable to poor nutrition and the development of obesity. Copyright © 2016 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michtchenko, T. A.; Rodríguez, A.

2011-10-01

The secular regime of motion of multi-planetary systems is universal; in contrast with the 'accidental' resonant motion, characteristic only for specific configurations of the planets, secular motion is present everywhere in phase space, even inside the resonant region. The secular behavior of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces is the principal subject of this study, particularly, the case when the dissipative forces affect the planetary semi-major axes and the planets move inward/outward the central star, the process known as planet migration. Based on the fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion is determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

Historical Improvements in Well-Being Do Not Hold in Late Life: Birth- and Death-Year Cohorts in the United States and Germany

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hülür, Gizem; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2015-01-01

One key objective of life span research is to examine how individual development is shaped by the historical time people live in. Secular trends favoring later-born cohorts on fluid cognitive abilities have been widely documented, but findings are mixed for well-being. It remains an open question whether secular increases in well-being seen in…

[Topic on clinical anthropology in scientific activity of docent Antanas Adomaitis].

PubMed

Tutkuviene, Janina

2006-01-01

The present paper is dedicated to docent Antanas Adomaitis, anatomist and anthropologist, former member of editorial board of journal "Medicina", on the occasion of his 65th birthday and 40 years of scientific activity. First publications of Antanas Adomatis appeared in the 1960s, and now the list of his scientific publications exceeds 140 in number. The research field of docent Antanas Adomaitis is wide and covers problems from growth and development to physical status of adult people and its changes associated with a particular period. However, his most important scientific works are in the field of clinical anthropology. Antanas Adomaitis investigated growth and maturation under pathological circumstances, body composition of adult people, prevalence of obesity, growth diversity and secular trend: in 1975 he defended his thesis entitled "Physical development and sexual maturation of children with congenital heart defects" for the degree of Doctor of Medicine, later focused on growth and development of children with congenital facial anomalies, also blind and weak-sighted children. Recently docent together with the other scientists of our Department investigates growth variety of children from different towns and rural areas of Lithuania. Antanas Adomaitis collected probably most anthropological data on Lithuanians (children and adults)--this is ponderable contribution to Lithuanian auxology and clinical anthropology, valuable material for the future researches of growth and maturation, also physical status of adult people and secular trend.

Youth Suicide Trends in Finland, 1969-2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lahti, Anniina; Rasanen, Pirkko; Riala, Kaisa; Keranen, Sirpa; Hakko, Helina

2011-01-01

Background: There are only a few recent studies on secular trends in child and adolescent suicides. We examine here trends in rates and methods of suicide among young people in Finland, where suicide rates at these ages are among the highest in the world. Methods: The data, obtained from Statistics Finland, consisted of all suicides (n = 901)…

Secular trends, race, and geographic disparity of early-stage breast cancer incidence: 25 years of surveillance in Connecticut.

PubMed

Crabbe, J Christopher F; Gregorio, David I; Samociuk, Holly; Swede, Helen

2015-07-01

We considered changes in the geographic distribution of early stage breast cancer among White and non-White women while secular trends in lifestyle and health care were under way. We aggregated tumor registry and census data by age, race, place of residence, and year of diagnosis to evaluate rate variation across Connecticut census tracts between 1985 and 2009. Global and local cluster detection tests were completed. Age-adjusted incidence rates increased by 2.71% and 0.44% per year for White and non-White women, respectively. Significant global clustering was identified during surveillance of these populations, but the elements of clustering differed between groups. Among White women, fewer local clusters were detected after 1985 to 1989, whereas clustering increased over time among non-White women. Small-area variation of breast cancer incidence rates across time periods proved to be dynamic and race-specific. Incidence rates might have been affected by secular trends in lifestyle or health care. Single cross-sectional analyses might have confused our understanding of disease occurrence by not accounting for the social context in which patient preferences or provider capacity influence the numbers and locations of diagnosed cases. Serial analyses are recommended to identify "hot spots" where persistent geographic disparities in incidence occur.

Associations of Bar and Restaurant Smoking Bans With Smoking Behavior in the CARDIA Study: A 25-Year Study.

PubMed

Mayne, Stephanie L; Auchincloss, Amy H; Tabb, Loni Philip; Stehr, Mark; Shikany, James M; Schreiner, Pamela J; Widome, Rachel; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2018-06-01

Indoor smoking bans have often been associated with reductions in smoking prevalence. However, few studies have evaluated their association with within-person changes in smoking behaviors. We linked longitudinal data from 5,105 adults aged 18-30 years at baseline from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study (1985-2011) to state, county, and local policies mandating 100% smoke-free bars and restaurants by census tract. We used fixed-effects models to examine the association of smoking bans with within-person change in current smoking risk, smoking intensity (smoking ≥10 cigarettes/day on average vs. <10 cigarettes/day), and quitting attempts, using both linear and nonlinear adjustment for secular trends. In models assuming a linear secular trend, smoking bans were associated with a decline in current smoking risk and smoking intensity and an increased likelihood of a quitting attempt. The association with current smoking was greatest among participants with a bachelor's degree or higher. In models with a nonlinear secular trend, pooled results were attenuated (confidence intervals included the null), but effect modification results were largely unchanged. Findings suggest that smoking ban associations may be difficult to disentangle from other tobacco control interventions and emphasize the importance of evaluating equity throughout policy implementation.

Exploring the determinants of secular decreases in dental caries among Korean children.

PubMed

Lee, Hye-Ju; Han, Dong-Hun

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine the contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in dental caries from 2003 to 2010. Data were from three waves of the Korean National Oral Health Surveys between 2003 and 2010, including a total of 23 059 children (11 889 boys and 11 170 girls) aged 8, 10, and 12 years. The impacts of sealant and water fluoridation on dental caries were obtained by logistic regression for each age group of children. The contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in the prevalence of dental caries were examined by a series of logistic regression models, and changes in the adjusted odds ratios for each survey year were also calculated. Over the past 7 years, the prevalence of dental caries decreased dramatically. Although sealant had a significant impact on dental caries in each survey year, remarkable decreases in dental caries from 2003 to 2010 were not explained by the secular changes in the dental sealant or water fluoridation factor. We observed important population declines in dental caries in Korea in children aged 8-12 years; however, the likely causes for these secular trends remain to be determined. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Secular trends in the association between nativity/length of US residence with body mass index and waist circumference among Mexican-Americans, 1988–2008

PubMed Central

Diez Roux, Ana V.; Aiello, Allison E.; Schulz, Amy J.; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F.

2012-01-01

Objectives We investigated whether associations between nativity/length of US residence and body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) varied over the past two decades. Methods Mexican-Americans aged 20–64 years from the National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) III (1988–1994), and NHANES (1999–2008). Sex-stratified multivariable linear regression models further adjusted for age, education, and NHANES period. Results We found no evidence of secular variation in the nativity/length of US residence gradient for men or women. Foreign-born Mexican-Americans, irrespective of residence length, had lower mean BMI and WC than their US-born counterparts. However among women, education modified secular trends in nativity differentials: notably, in less-educated women, nativity gradients widened over time due to alarming increases in BMI among the US-born and little increase in the foreign-born. Conclusions Associations between nativity/length of US residence and BMI/WC did not vary over this 20-year period, but we noted important modifications by education in women. Understanding these trends is important for identifying vulnerable subpopulations among Mexican-Americans and for the development of effective health promotion strategies in this fast-growing segment of the population. PMID:23052250

Spatial patterns and secular trends in human leishmaniasis incidence in Morocco between 2003 and 2013.

PubMed

Sadeq, Mina

2016-05-11

Few studies on spatial patterns or secular trends in human leishmanias have been conducted in Morocco. This study aimed to examine spatial patterns and trends associated with the human leishmaniasis incidence rate (HLIR) at the province/prefecture level between 2003 and 2013 in Morocco. Only the available published country data on the HLIR between 2003 and 2013, from the open access files of the Ministry of Health, were used. Secular trends were examined using Kendall's rank correlation. An exploratory spatial data analysis was also conducted to examine the spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association [LISA]), and spatial diffusion at the province/prefecture level. The influence of various covariates (poverty rate, vulnerability rate, population density, and urbanization) on the HLIR was tested via spatial regression (ordinary least squares regression). At the country level, no secular variation was observed. Poisson annual incidence rate estimates were 13 per 100 000 population (95 % CI = 12.9-13.1) for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and 0.4 per 100 000 population (95 % CI = 0.4-0.5) for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). The available data on HLIR were based on combined CL and VL cases, however, as the CL cases totally outnumbered the VL ones, HLIR may be considered as CL incidence rate. At the provincial level, a secular increase in the incidence rate was observed in Al Hoceima (P = 0.008), Taounate (P = 0.04), Larache (P = 0.002), Tétouan (P = 0.0003), Khenifra (P = 0.008), Meknes (P = 0.03), and El Kelaa (P = 0.0007), whereas a secular decrease was observed only in the Chichaoua province (P = 0.006). Even though increased or decreased rate was evident in these provinces, none of them showed clustering of leishmaniasis incidence. Significant spatial clusters of high leishmaniasis incidence were located in the northeastern part of Morocco, while spatial clusters of low leishmaniasis incidence were seen in some northwestern and southern parts of Morocco; there was spatial randomness in the remaining parts of the country. Significant clustering was seen from 2005 to 2013, during which time the Errachidia province was a permanent 'hot spot'. Global Moran's I increased from 0.2844 (P = 0.006) in 2005 to 0.5886 (P = 0.001) in 2011, and decreased to 0.2491 (P = 0.004) in 2013. It was found that only poverty had an effect on the HLIR (P = 0.0003), contributing only 23 % to this (Adjusted R-squared = 0.226). Localities showing either secular increase in human leishmaniasis or significant clustering have been identified, which may guide decision-making as to where to appropriately allocate funding and implement control measures. Researchers are also urged to undertake further studies focusing on these localities.

Secular change and inter-annual variability of the Gulf Stream position, 1993-2013, 70°-55°W

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisagni, James J.; Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Sanchez-Franks, Alejandra

2017-07-01

The Gulf Stream (GS) is the northeastward-flowing surface limb of the Atlantic Ocean's meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) ;conveyer belt; that flows towards Europe and the Nordic Seas. Changes in the GS position after its separation from the coast at Cape Hatteras, i.e., from 75°W to 50°W, may be key to understanding the AMOC, sea level variability and ecosystem behavior along the east coast of North America. In this study we compare secular change and inter-annual variability (IAV) of the Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW) position with equator-ward Labrador Current (LC) transport along the southwestern Grand Banks near 52°W using 21 years (1993-2013) of satellite altimeter data. Results at 55°, 60°, and 65°W show a significant southward (negative) secular trend for the GSNW, decreasing to a small but insignificant southward trend at 70°W. IAV of de-trended GSNW position residuals also decreases to the west. The long-term secular trend of annual mean upper layer (200 m) LC transport near 52°W is positive. Furthermore, IAV of LC transport residuals near 52°W along the southwestern Grand Banks are significantly correlated with GSNW position residuals at 55°W at a lag of +1-year, with positive (negative) LC transport residuals corresponding to southward (northward) GSNW positions one year later. The Taylor-Stephens index (TSI) computed from the first principal component of the GSNW position from 79° to 65°W shows a similar relationship with a more distal LC index computed along altimeter ground track 250 located north of the Grand Banks across Hamilton Bank in the western Labrador Sea. Increased (decreased) sea height differences along ground track 250 are significantly correlated with a more southward (northward) TSI two years later (lag of +2-years). Spectral analysis of IAV reveals corresponding spectral peaks at 5-7 years and 2-3 years for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), GSNW (70°-55°W) and LC transport near 52°W for the 1993-2013 period suggesting a connection between these phenomena. An upper-layer (200 m) slope water volume calculation using the LC IAV rms residual of +1.04 Sv near 52°W results in an estimated GSNW IAV residual of 79 km, or 63% of the observed 125.6 km (1.13°) rms value at 55°W. A similar upper-layer slope water volume calculation using the positive long-term, upper-layer LC transport trend accounts for 68% of the mean observed secular southward shift of the GSNW between 55° and 70°W over the 1993-2013 period. Our work provides additional observational evidence of important interactions between the upper layers of the sub-polar and sub-tropical gyres within the North Atlantic over both secular and inter-annual time scales as suggested by previous studies.

Decadal-to-centennial-scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Lall, Upmanu; Saltzman, Barry

1995-01-01

We demonstrate connections between decadal and secular global climatic variations, and historical variations in the volume of the Great Salt Lake. The decadal variations correspond to a low-frequency shifting of storm tracks which influence winter precipitation and explain nearly 18% of the interannual and longer-term variance in the record of monthly volume change. The secular trend accounts for a more modest approximately 1.5% of the variance.

Does Mother Nature Really Sell Margarine?: The Uncertain Rural Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Peter

There exists a question as to whether United States society and its agricultural system will continue to follow the long-term trend of Western civilization or move in a new direction. The "modernization trend" of Western civilization has 4 components: scientification of knowledge, secularization of human values, industrialization of…

Secular trends for skinfolds differ from those for BMI and waist circumference among adults examined in NHANES from 1988-1994 through 2009-2010.

PubMed

Freedman, David S; Zemel, Babette S; Ogden, Cynthia L

2017-01-01

Although the prevalence of a body mass index [BMI (in kg/m 2 )] ≥30 has tripled among US adults since the 1960s, BMI is only moderately correlated with body fatness. Because skinfolds can more accurately estimate body fatness than can BMI, it is possible that skinfolds could be useful in monitoring secular trends in body fatness. We examined whether there were similar secular trends for skinfolds (triceps and subscapular), BMI, and waist circumference between US adults. This study was an analysis of 45,754 adults who participated in the NHANES from 1988-1994 through 2009-2010. Approximately 19% of the subjects were missing ≥1 skinfold-thickness measurement. These missing values were imputed from other characteristics. Trends in mean levels and in the prevalence of high levels of the 4 body size measures were fairly similar between men, with mean levels increasing by ≥5% from 1988-1994 through 2009-2010. Slightly larger increases were seen in women for BMI and waist circumference (7-8%), but trends in skinfolds were markedly different. The mean triceps skinfold, for example, increased by 2 mm through 2003-2004, but subsequently decreased so that the mean in 2009-2010 did not differ from that in 1988-1994. Compared with obese women in 1988-1994, the mean BMI of obese women in 2009-2010 was 1 higher, but mean levels of both skinfolds were 5-10% lower. Although there were fairly similar trends in levels of BMI, waist circumference, and skinfold thicknesses in men in the United States from 1988-1994 through 2009-2010, there were substantial differences in women. Our results indicate that it is unlikely that skinfold thicknesses could be used to monitor trends in obesity. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Secular Orbit Evolution in Systems with a Strong External Perturber—A Simple and Accurate Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrade-Ines, Eduardo; Eggl, Siegfried, E-mail: eandrade.ines@gmail.com, E-mail: siegfried.eggl@jpl.nasa.gov

We present a semi-analytical correction to the seminal solution for the secular motion of a planet’s orbit under gravitational influence of an external perturber derived by Heppenheimer. A comparison between analytical predictions and numerical simulations allows us to determine corrective factors for the secular frequency and forced eccentricity in the coplanar restricted three-body problem. The correction is given in the form of a polynomial function of the system’s parameters that can be applied to first-order forced eccentricity and secular frequency estimates. The resulting secular equations are simple, straight forward to use, and improve the fidelity of Heppenheimers solution well beyond higher-ordermore » models. The quality and convergence of the corrected secular equations are tested for a wide range of parameters and limits of its applicability are given.« less

Growth status of indigenous school children 6-14 years in the Tarahumara Sierra, Northern Mexico, in 1990 and 2007.

PubMed

Peña Reyes, Maria Eugenia; Cárdenas Barahona, Eyra E; Lamadrid, Paola Stefani; Del Olmo Calzada, Margarita; Malina, Robert M

2009-01-01

The study evaluated the growth status and secular change in body size of indigenous Tarahumara children in northern Mexico. Heights and weights of Tarahumara children 6-14 years were measured in 1990 (n = 601) and 2007 (n = 583); the BMI was calculated. International criteria defined weight status while United States reference data defined stunting. Estimated secular gains in height from 1990 to 2007 were greatest in 6-7 year-old boys and declined with age to a small, non-significant secular decline in boys 12-14 years. Among girls secular gains in height were similar at 6-7 and 8-9 years, largest at 10-11 years and small and non-significant at 12-14 years. Secular gains in weight were similar among 6-7 and 8-9 year-old boys and girls, were greater in girls than in boys at 10-11 years and showed a small, non-significant secular decline in boys and girls 12-14 years. Secular change in the BMI paralleled those for weight. The prevalence of stunting declined from 1990 to 2007 in both sexes and all age groups except 12-14 year youth. Overweight was more prevalent in girls than boys in both years and increased from 4% to 7% in boys and 9% to 13% in girls. Obesity was not common among boys and girls in each age group and in both years. Stunting and overweight/obesity were not related in either 1990 or 2007. Positive secular changes in growth status have occurred in Tarahumara children 6-11 years in contrast to negligible changes among children 12-14 years. The results suggest recent improvements in health and nutrition sufficient to support a positive secular trend in younger children.

Assessment of the Spatial and Temporal Variations in TWS and GWS in Michigan's Lower Peninsula and Identification of the Controlling Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahour, H.; Sultan, M.; Fathy, K.; Yellich, J. A.; Karki, S.; Wireman, M.

2017-12-01

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has been successfully used to track changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and ground water storage (GWS) across the globe. We use GRACE RL05 monthly mascon solutions from the Center for Space Research (CSR) and outputs of the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) to investigate/extract: (1) secular trends in TWS over the entire landscape of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan throughout the GRACE operational period (2002 to 2016), (2) secular trends in GWS using the extracted TWS trends and GLDAS outputs (soil moisture, canopy water storage, surface runoff and snow water equivalent), and (3) the major natural and anthropogenic factors controlling the observed TWS and GWS variations. The extracted TWS and GWS trends were downscaled from 1º x 1º to 0.25º x 0.25º (local county scale) using logistical regression techniques. Findings include: (1) in the central and northern sections of the Lower Peninsula (43.06 °N to 45.77 °N ) the secular trends in TWS reveal two general patterns a near-steady state to modest increase in TWS (0.3 to 0.8 mm/year) for the period 2002 to 2011 (hereafter referred to as the early period [EP]), followed by an increase in TWS (9.6 to 13.8 mm/year) for the period 2012 to 2016 (hereafter referred to as the late period [LP]). (2) Similar trends for TWS were observed for the southern sections of the Lower Peninsula (41.76 °N to 43.06 °N); a near-steady to a slight increase during the EP (0.6 to 0.8 mm/year), yet a less pronounced increase was detected during the LP (4.8 to7.2 mm/year). (3) The GWS secular trends over northern and central parts of the Lower Peninsula on one hand and those for the southern sections follow the general observed patterns for the TWS throughout the EP and LP. Research is underway to accomplish the following: (1) correlate spatially and temporarily the observed variations in TWS and GWS with variations in other relevant datasets including snowfall, precipitation, land surface temperature, groundwater extraction, and groundwater levels in search for causal effects, and (2) refine our preliminary downscaling attempts by including in our logistical regression analysis as many of the relevant available variables in our analysis (e.g., precipitation, snow fall, snow water equivalent, runoff, soil moisture, and NDVI).

Stroke survivors in low- and middle-income countries: A meta-analysis of prevalence and secular trends.

PubMed

Ezejimofor, Martinsixtus C; Chen, Yen-Fu; Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Ezejimofor, Benedeth C; Ezeabasili, Aloysius C; Stranges, Saverio; Uthman, Olalekan A

2016-05-15

To provide an up-to-date estimate on the changing prevalence of stroke survivors, and examines the geographic and socioeconomic variations in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS and Web of Science databases and systematically reviewed articles reporting stroke prevalence and risk factors from inception to July 2015. Pooled prevalence estimates and secular trends based on random-effects models were conducted across LMICs, World Bank regions and income groups. Overall, 101 eligible community-based studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled crude prevalence of stroke survivors was highest in Latin America and Caribbean (21.2 per 1000, 95% CI 13.7 to 30.29) but lowest in sub-Saharan Africa (3.5 per 1000, 95% CI 1.9 to 5.7). Steepest increase in stroke prevalence occurred in low-income countries, increasing by 14.3% annually while the lowest increase occurred in lower-middle income countries (6% annually), and for every 10years increase in participants' mean age, the prevalence of stroke survivors increases by 62% (95% CI 6% to 147%). The prevalence estimates of stroke survivors are significantly different across LMICs in both magnitude and secular trend. Improved stroke surveillance and care, as well as better management of the underlying risk factors, primarily undetected or uncontrolled high blood pressure (HBP) are needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michtchenko, T. A.; Rodríguez, A.

2011-08-01

The subject of this paper is the secular behaviour of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces. In particular, we investigate the case when dissipative forces affect the planetary semimajor axes and the planets move inwards/outwards the central star, in a process known as planet migration. To perform this investigation, we introduce fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Based on these concepts, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on the analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under the assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and the migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

Spreading a medical home redesign: effects on emergency department use and hospital admissions.

PubMed

Reid, Robert J; Johnson, Eric A; Hsu, Clarissa; Ehrlich, Kelly; Coleman, Katie; Trescott, Claire; Erikson, Michael; Ross, Tyler R; Liss, David T; Cromp, DeAnn; Fishman, Paul A

2013-01-01

The patient-centered medical home (PCMH) is being rapidly deployed in many settings to strengthen US primary care, improve quality, and control costs; however, evidence supporting this transformation is still lacking. We describe the Group Health experience in attempting to replicate the effects on health care use seen in a PCMH prototype clinic via a systemwide spread using Lean as the change strategy. We used an interrupted time series analysis with a patient-month unit of analysis over a 4-year period that included baseline, implementation, and stabilization periods for 412,943 patients. To account for secular trends across these periods, we compared changes in use of face-to-face primary care visits, emergency department visits, and inpatient admissions with those of a nonequivalent comparison group of patients served by community network practices. After accounting for secular trends among network patients, patients empaneled to the PCMH clinics had 5.1% and 6.7% declines in primary care office visits in early and later stabilization years, respectively, after the implementation year. This trend was accompanied by a 123% increase in the use of secure electronic message threads and a 20% increase in telephone encounters. Declines were also seen in emergency department visits at 1 and 2 years (13.7% and 18.5%) compared with what would be expected based on secular trends in network practices. No statistically significant changes were found for hospital admissions. The Group Health experience shows it is possible to reduce emergency department use with PCMH transformation across a diverse set of clinics using a clear change strategy (Lean) and sufficient resources and supports.

Institutional Image: Secular and Marketing Influences on Christian Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodrow, James

2004-01-01

An interesting trend is sweeping the nation's Christian higher education movement. During the 20th century, Christian liberal arts colleges and universities were frequently established and founded with names that included their denominational affiliation or the word "Christian" in them. In recent years, the trend has been to omit any religious…

Secular Trends in Pupils' Assessments of Physical Education Lessons in Regard to Their Self-Perception of Physical Fitness across the Educational Systems of Czech Republic and Poland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frömel, Karel; Vašícková, Jana; Svozil, Zbynek; Chmelík, František; Skalik, Krzysztof; Groffik, Dorota

2014-01-01

Observation of trends in physical education plays an integral role in motor-development diagnostics and in encouraging physical activity and a healthy lifestyle. This study aims to elucidate the current state of and trends in pupils' assessments of physical education lessons (PELs) in different education systems in the context of self-perception…

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Ethics of surrogacy: a comparative study of Western secular and islamic bioethics.

PubMed

Islam, Sharmin; Nordin, Rusli Bin; Bin Shamsuddin, Ab Rani; Mohd Nor, Hanapi Bin; Al-Mahmood, Abu Kholdun

2012-01-01

The comparative approach regarding the ethics of surrogacy from the Western secular and Islamic bioethical view reveals both commensurable and incommensurable relationship. Both are eager to achieve the welfare of the mother, child and society as a whole but the approaches are not always the same. Islamic bioethics is straightforward in prohibiting surrogacy by highlighting the lineage problem and also other social chaos and anarchy. Western secular bioethics is relative and mostly follows a utilitarian approach.

Ethics of Surrogacy: A Comparative Study of Western Secular and Islamic Bioethics

PubMed Central

Islam, Sharmin; Nordin, Rusli Bin; Bin Shamsuddin, Ab Rani; Mohd Nor, Hanapi Bin; Al-Mahmood, Abu Kholdun

2012-01-01

The comparative approach regarding the ethics of surrogacy from the Western secular and Islamic bioethical view reveals both commensurable and incommensurable relationship. Both are eager to achieve the welfare of the mother, child and society as a whole but the approaches are not always the same. Islamic bioethics is straightforward in prohibiting surrogacy by highlighting the lineage problem and also other social chaos and anarchy. Western secular bioethics is relative and mostly follows a utilitarian approach. PMID:23864994

Physical fitness of children and adolescents in the United States: status and secular change.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M

2007-01-01

The physical fitness of school-age children in the United States is considered from two perspectives--status and secular change. This chapter principally examines health-related fitness, including the BMI, though performance-related fitness is briefly considered. Concepts of reference data and standards and factors that may influence secular change are initially discussed. National data on the physical fitness status of school children in the continental United States are limited to the 1980s. Ethnic variation in physical fitness is not considered except for the prevalence of overweight and obesity. More recent physical fitness data, including examination of ethnic variation, are based on several statewide and more local surveys. Although results vary by test, the majority of American school children meet or exceed criterion-referenced standards, although sex differences are not consistent. Poor morphological fitness manifest in obesity is an exception. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased since the early 1980s. Secular data for specific fitness items are less extensive. Regression analyses suggest a recent decline in maximal aerobic power in girls, but fairly stable levels between the 1930s and today in boys. However, the highest values for boys occur in the 1960s and 1970s and more recent values are somewhat lower. The general trend may be consistent with the decline since the 1980s in aerobic performance assessed with the 20 m shuttle run. These trends highlight the need for updated national physical fitness data for American youth.

Mechanism of secular increasing of mean gravity in Northern hemisphere and secular decreasing of mean gravity in Southern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkin, Yu. V.; Ferrandiz, J. M.

2009-04-01

Mechanism. To present time the observant data in various geosciences more and more confidently testify for the benefit of existence of secular drift of the Earth core in the direction of North Pole. 1). So the superfluous mass of a displaced core relatively to elastic mantle, obviously, results in displacement of the centre of mass of the Earth with respect to basic system of coordinates on a surface of the Earth also in northern direction. Methods of a space geodesy let us confidently to determine drift of the centre of mass to the north with velocity about 0.5 - 1.0 cm/yr. The fundamental phenomenon of drift of the centre of mass and the core of the Earth has been predicted in 1995 (Barkin, 1995) at the analysis of secular change of the pear-shaped form of the Earth in present epoch (velocity of drift of the centre of mass of the Earth was appreciated in 1.8 +/-1.0 cm/yr in the direction of North Pole of the Earth). For an explanation of observably drift of the centre of mass at once the model of drift of the core was offered and the geodynamic model of forced relative displacements and wanderings of interacting shells of the Earth under action of a gravitational attraction of external celestial bodies (Barkin, 1996, 2002) has been developed. 2). The core makes slow secular drift and cyclic displacements. Predicted spectrum of oscillations of the centre of mass of the Earth and its core (Barkin, 2001) has received precise confirmation as a result of the Fourier analysis of temporal series for coordinates of a geocenter (Kaftan, Tatevian, 2003; Barkin, Vilke, 2004; Barkin, Lyubushin, Zotov, 2007). 3). The displaced core makes active all bouquet of natural processes in all shells of the Earth (including an atmosphere, ocean and internal shells), varying in the certain rhythms and styles the tension conditions of shells, their thermodynamic conditions etc. The core as though "conducts" by all planetary processes at once. From here take the origin such fundamental phenomena as cyclicity and synchronism of planetary natural processes, inversion of activity of natural processes in opposite hemispheres. Numerous confirmations give the extensive data of every possible geophysical observations. The phenomenon of synchronism in annual variations of activity of various natural processes is rather brightly expressed - their phases are precisely synchronized, and the periods of extreme activity (or passivity) fall to February - March or August - September. In daily variations of natural processes similar laws are observed. Here we speak about modern processes, but similar laws take place in various time scales, including geological. In the given report we shall concentrate on the analysis of possible secular variations of a gravity at displacement of an external core (of its centre of mass) relatively to the elastic mantle. The analysis has shown, that gravitational influence of displaced superfluous mass of the core are a major factor of secular variations of a gravity. However the displaced core causes directed redistribution of atmospheric masses from a southern hemisphere in northern, and also complex slow redistribution of oceanic masses. Increase of loading of atmospheric and oceanic masses on an elastic crust of northern hemisphere results in its slow lowering. Return processes should observed in a southern hemisphere. All listed factors, certainly, directly influence variations of a gravity. In a more comprehensive sense redistribution of all fluid masses, including climatic character also result in changes of a gravity. Hemispheres mean secular trends of gravity. For an estimation of a role of factors of redistribution of air and fluid masses in variations of a gravity the point model of redistribution of masses of the Earth (Barkin, 2001), obtained very effective applications at studying of fundamental problems of geodynamics, has been used. Let's emphasize, that the Earth is active dynamic object at which activity in the certain regions (for example, in subduction zones, a hilly terrain, a zone of volcanism etc.) at times is more brightly shown. Therefore the steadfast attention should be paid to local factors of changes of a gravity. In result the phenomenon of inversion changes of a gravity in northern and southern hemispheres has been predicted: mean value of a gravity in northern hemisphere accrues with velocity 1.36 micro gals in year (mGal), and in southern decreases with the same velocity. Secular variations of a gravity depend from latitude and on equator (within the framework of considered model) change a sign: dg=2.72tsinф micro gals in year (mGal), where ф is a latitude of a place of observations, t is the time in years (Barkin, 2005). The data of gravimetric measurements at the European stations: Metsahovi, Potsdam, Moha, Vienna, Wettzell, Strastburg, Medicina etc., in Asia and Australia: Eshashi, Canberra etc., in Northern and South America: Bolder (Colorado), Patagonia (Argentina) etc., and also in Antarctic Region (station Syowa), will well be coordinated to the theoretical values of secular variations of a gravity predicted earlier at the specified stations. Gravity trends are studied and evaluated after removal effects of tides, local pressure and polar motion. The secular gravity variation at Potsdam is evaluated in 2.1 mGal/yr. During 1976-1986 the similar tendency - gravity trend with velocity 2.6 mGal/yr (absolute measurements) here have been observed. The similar tendency has been determined on measurements on superconducting gravimeters during 1993-1997: 2.3-2.5 mGal/yr (Neumeyer and Dittfeled, 1997). For more extensive period of observation (Neumayer, 2002) the similar result for gravity trend has been obtained. Observable annual variations of a gravity are characterized by amplitude about 3 mGal (on our model it is 3.5 mGal). Observations at Syowa station have been confirmed the developed model. Here it was expected negative gravity trend - decreasing of gravity with velocity -2.54 mGal/yr, that have actually confirmed SG observations during 1995-1998: -2.4 mGal/yr (Sato et al., 2001). Amplitudes of an annual and semi-annual variations approximately make 4.8 mGal/yr and 0.8 mGal/yr (theoretical values: 4.2 mGal/yr and 0.95 mGal/yr). References Barkin Yu.V. (2002) Explanation of endogenous activity of planets and satellites and its cyclicity. Izvestia cekzii nauk o Zemle. Rus. Acad. of Nat. Sciences, Issue 9, December 2002, M.: VINITI, pp. 45-97. In Russian. Barkin Yu.V., Ferrandiz J.M. (2008) Phenomenon of secular increasing of mean gravity in Northern hemisphere and secular decreasing of gravity in Southern hemisphere; predictions and new confirmations. EGU General Assembly (Vienna, Austria, 13-18 April 2008). Geophysical Research Abstracts, EGU General Assembly 2008. Vol. 10, EGU2008-A-10506.

Secular Trends in Habitual Physical Activities of Mozambican Children and Adolescents from Maputo City

PubMed Central

dos Santos, Fernanda Karina; Maia, José A. R.; Gomes, Thayse Natacha Q. F.; Daca, Timóteo; Madeira, Aspacia; Damasceno, Albertino; Katzmarzyk, Peter T.; Prista, António

2014-01-01

Social and economic changes occurring in the last two decades in Mozambique may have induced lifestyle changes among youth. This study aimed to document secular changes in habitual physical activities of Mozambican youth between 1992, 1999 and 2012. A total of 3393 youth (eight–15 years), were measured in three different time periods (1992, 1999, 2012). Habitual physical activity (PA) was estimated with a questionnaire, including items related to household chores, sport participation, traditional games and walking activities. Biological maturation was assessed. Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) was used to compare mean differences in PA across the years. Significant decreases between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 were observed for boys in household chores, games and walking, and a significant decline between 1999 and 2012 was found in sport participation.Among girls, a significant and consistent decline (1992 > 1999 > 2012) was observed for household chores, a decline between 1992–1999 and 1992–2012 for games and walking, and a significant increase between 1992 and 1999 in sport participation. In general, a negative secular trend was found in habitual PA among Mozambican youth. Interventions aimed at increasing PA represent important educational and public health opportunities. PMID:25337941

Students' Attitudes toward Religion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lebedev, S. D.

2008-01-01

The problem of the study of religion in the system of secular education hinges on the "reproduction of religiousness" in the secular school and, more broadly, in Russian society space, via the process of mass education. It is the prospect of expanded reproduction of religious consciousness, of religious psychology and practices as a…

Adolescent BMI at Northern Israel: From Trends, to Associated Variables and Comorbidities, and to Medical Signatures.

PubMed

Machluf, Yossy; Fink, Daniel; Farkash, Rivka; Rotkopf, Ron; Pirogovsky, Avinoam; Tal, Orna; Shohat, Tamar; Weisz, Giora; Ringler, Erez; Dagan, David; Chaiter, Yoram

2016-03-01

The increasing prevalence of abnormal body mass index (BMI), mainly obesity, is becoming a significant public health problem. This cross-sectional study aimed to provide a comprehensive view of secular trends of BMI, and the associated socio-demographic variables and comorbidities among adolescents with abnormal BMI. Individuals of the study population were born mainly between 1970 and 1993, and were examined at 16 to 19 years of age during the years 1987 to 2010, at 1 conscription center in the northern district of Israel.The study population included 113,694 adolescents. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to investigate the associations between BMI categories, socio-demographic variables, and medical conditions.A downward trend in the prevalence of normal BMI among both male and female adolescents was obtained, while trends of overweight and obesity (in both genders) and underweight (only among females) rose. Socio-demographic variables such as religion, education, family-related parameters, residential environment, country of birth, and origin were all associated with different risks for abnormal BMI. Obesity was associated with higher risk for hyperlipidemia, endocrine disorders (only in males), knee disorders, and hypertension type I + II (in both genders). Overweight was associated with knee disorders (only in females). Underweight, exclusively in males, was associated with increased risk for endocrine disorders, proteinuria, and cardiac disorders. Hierarchical clustering analysis revealed the intricate relations between gender, BMI, and medical signatures. It brought to light novel clusters of diseases that were abundant among populations having above-normal BMI or underweight males. Furthermore, above-normal BMI was associated with a lower rate of cardiac anomalies and scoliosis/kyphosis, whereas being underweight was associated with a lower risk for hypertension and flat foot.This study provides a reliable and in-depth view of secular trends in height, weight, and BMI of male and female adolescents. It supports previous associations between abnormal BMI and demographic variables and comorbidities, while uncovering novel associations, mainly regarding medical signatures of each gender-BMI group. This might lead to better monitoring, early detection, prevention, and treatment of various conditions associated to abnormal BMI categories and gender groups.

Derivation of Tropospheric Ozone Climatology and Trends from TOMS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newchurch, Michael J.; McPeters, Rich; Logan, Jennifer; Kim, Jae-Hwan

2002-01-01

This research addresses the following three objectives: (1) Derive tropospheric ozone columns from the TOMS instruments by computing the difference between total-ozone columns over cloudy areas and over clear areas in the tropics; (2) Compute secular trends in Nimbus-7 derived tropospheric Ozone column amounts and associated potential trends in the decadal-scale tropical cloud climatology; (3) Explain the occurrence of anomalously high ozone retrievals over high ice clouds.

Secular trends: a ten-year comparison of the amount and type of physical activity and inactivity of random samples of adolescents in the Czech Republic

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background An optimal level of physical activity (PA) in adolescence influences the level of PA in adulthood. Although PA declines with age have been demonstrated repeatedly, few studies have been carried out on secular trends. The present study assessed levels, types and secular trends of PA and sedentary behaviour of a sample of adolescents in the Czech Republic. Methods The study comprised two cross-sectional cohorts of adolescents ten years apart. The analysis compared data collected through a week-long monitoring of adolescents' PA in 1998-2000 and 2008-2010. Adolescents wore either Yamax SW-701 or Omron HJ-105 pedometer continuously for 7 days (at least 10 hours per day) excluding sleeping, hygiene and bathing. They also recorded their number of steps per day, the type and duration of PA and sedentary behaviour (in minutes) on record sheets. In total, 902 adolescents (410 boys; 492 girls) aged 14-18 were eligible for analysis. Results Overweight and obesity in Czech adolescents participating in this study increased from 5.5% (older cohort, 1998-2000) to 10.4% (younger cohort, 2008-2010). There were no inter-cohort significant changes in the total amount of sedentary behaviour in boys. However in girls, on weekdays, there was a significant increase in the total duration of sedentary behaviour of the younger cohort (2008-2010) compared with the older one (1998-2000). Studying and screen time (television and computer) were among the main sedentary behaviours in Czech adolescents. The types of sedentary behaviour also changed: watching TV (1998-2000) was replaced by time spent on computers (2008-2010). The Czech health-related criterion (achieving 11,000 steps per day) decreased only in boys from 68% (1998-2000) to 55% (2008-2010). Across both genders, 55%-75% of Czech adolescents met the health-related criterion of recommended steps per day, however less participants in the younger cohort (2008-2010) met this criterion than in the older cohort (1998-2000) ten years ago. Adolescents' PA levels for the monitored periods of 1998-2000 and 2008-2010 suggest a secular decrease in the weekly number of steps achieved by adolescent boys and girls. Conclusion In the younger cohort (2008-2010), every tenth adolescent was either overweight or obese; roughly twice the rate when compared to the older cohort (1998-2000). Sedentary behaviour seems relatively stable across the two cohorts as the increased time that the younger cohort (2008-2010) spent on computers is compensated with an equally decreased time spent watching TV or studying. Across both cohorts about half to three quarters of the adolescents met the health-related criterion for achieved number of steps. The findings show a secular decrease in PA amongst adolescents. The significant interaction effects (cohort × age; and cohort × gender) that this study found suggested that secular trends in PA differ by age and gender. PMID:21943194

Secular trends: a ten-year comparison of the amount and type of physical activity and inactivity of random samples of adolescents in the Czech Republic.

PubMed

Sigmundová, Dagmar; El Ansari, Walid; Sigmund, Erik; Frömel, Karel

2011-09-26

An optimal level of physical activity (PA) in adolescence influences the level of PA in adulthood. Although PA declines with age have been demonstrated repeatedly, few studies have been carried out on secular trends. The present study assessed levels, types and secular trends of PA and sedentary behaviour of a sample of adolescents in the Czech Republic. The study comprised two cross-sectional cohorts of adolescents ten years apart. The analysis compared data collected through a week-long monitoring of adolescents' PA in 1998-2000 and 2008-2010. Adolescents wore either Yamax SW-701 or Omron HJ-105 pedometer continuously for 7 days (at least 10 hours per day) excluding sleeping, hygiene and bathing. They also recorded their number of steps per day, the type and duration of PA and sedentary behaviour (in minutes) on record sheets. In total, 902 adolescents (410 boys; 492 girls) aged 14-18 were eligible for analysis. Overweight and obesity in Czech adolescents participating in this study increased from 5.5% (older cohort, 1998-2000) to 10.4% (younger cohort, 2008-2010). There were no inter-cohort significant changes in the total amount of sedentary behaviour in boys. However in girls, on weekdays, there was a significant increase in the total duration of sedentary behaviour of the younger cohort (2008-2010) compared with the older one (1998-2000). Studying and screen time (television and computer) were among the main sedentary behaviours in Czech adolescents. The types of sedentary behaviour also changed: watching TV (1998-2000) was replaced by time spent on computers (2008-2010).The Czech health-related criterion (achieving 11,000 steps per day) decreased only in boys from 68% (1998-2000) to 55% (2008-2010). Across both genders, 55%-75% of Czech adolescents met the health-related criterion of recommended steps per day, however less participants in the younger cohort (2008-2010) met this criterion than in the older cohort (1998-2000) ten years ago. Adolescents' PA levels for the monitored periods of 1998-2000 and 2008-2010 suggest a secular decrease in the weekly number of steps achieved by adolescent boys and girls. In the younger cohort (2008-2010), every tenth adolescent was either overweight or obese; roughly twice the rate when compared to the older cohort (1998-2000). Sedentary behaviour seems relatively stable across the two cohorts as the increased time that the younger cohort (2008-2010) spent on computers is compensated with an equally decreased time spent watching TV or studying. Across both cohorts about half to three quarters of the adolescents met the health-related criterion for achieved number of steps. The findings show a secular decrease in PA amongst adolescents. The significant interaction effects (cohort × age; and cohort × gender) that this study found suggested that secular trends in PA differ by age and gender.

The Solar Constant, Climate, and Some Tests of the Storage Hypothesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eddy, J. A.

1984-01-01

Activity related modulation of the solar constant can have practical consequences for climate only if storage is involved, as opposed to a detailed balance between sunspot blocking and facular reemission. Four empirical tests are considered that might distinguish between these opposing interpretations: monochromatic measurements of positive and negative flux; comparison of modelled and measured irradiance variations; the interpretation of secular trends in irradiance data; and the direct test of an anticipated signal in climate records of surface air temperature. The yet unanswered question of the role of faculae as possible reemitters of blocked radiation precludes a definitive answer, although other tests suggest their role to be minor, and that storage and an 11 year modulation is implicated. A crucial test is the behavior of the secular trend in irradiance in the declining years of the present activity cycle.

[Secular trend of growth in stature in Florianópolis in the state of Santa Catarina (Brazil) in relation with the human development index (HDI)].

PubMed

Pinheiro, Andressa Caroline Carneiro; Niederauer, Juliana Minuzzi; Vargas, Deisi Maria

2014-01-01

The article seks to evaluate the secular trend of growth in stature of recruits in the 63rd Infantry Battalion in Florianópolis and correlate the information with the human development index (HDI). It involves a transversal and retrospective study of recruits aged between 18 and 20 who joined the 63rd IB in Florianópolis from 1963 to 2007. The sample comprised 600 individuals out of a total of 3000 recruits enlisted over the period. In each decade, three years were selected and within these years the first 40 files were systematically selected for analysis. It was seen that there was an increase in the order of 7 cm in height of recruits in Florianopolis over the past 47 years. This increase was more marked between the decades of 1990 and 2000, with the municipality of Blumenau having the highest average. The average heights study over the decades showed a strong positive correlation with the HDI of Florianopolis during the same period. When comparing the heights of the capital of Santa Catarina and previous studies in Blumenau, it was found that both cities have achieved the same increase of 1.4 cm/decade in the period between the 1960 and 2000. There was a positive secular trend in growth in Florianopolis, with a strong correlation with HDI values of the city between 1960 and 2000.

Fifty years of child height and weight in Japan and South Korea: Contrasting secular trend patterns analyzed by SITAR

PubMed Central

Mori, H.

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives Japanese and South Koreans have traditionally been shorter than Europeans, but have recently become appreciably taller. The aim was to quantify the secular trend patterns in height and weight growth in the two countries over 50 years using the SITAR growth curve model. Methods Data on mean height and weight by sex in 1‐year age groups from 1 to 20 years were obtained by decade in South Korea (1965–2005) and Japan (1950–2010). The data were analyzed using SITAR (SuperImposition by Translation And Rotation), which estimates a mean curve and three adjustments–size, timing and intensity–reflecting how the individual surveys differ from the mean. A sensitivity analysis compared results for the Japanese data based on cohort as well as period. Results Growth patterns in the two countries changed dramatically over the study period, affecting not only height and weight but also developmental age, in that the growth period advanced in timing and shrank in duration. SITAR fitted the data well. The trends were larger in South Korea than Japan, and puberty timing in Japan stabilized by 1970. Most of the height increment seen in adults had already accrued by age 1.5 years, whereas the adult weight increment accrued throughout childhood. Conclusions The secular height trend in these countries represents increased growth in the long bones during infancy, so it can be viewed as the inverse of stunting. There are striking country differences in growth pattern, but they are not easily explained by differences in national income, diet or lifestyle. PMID:28833849

Spreading a Medical Home Redesign: Effects on Emergency Department Use and Hospital Admissions

PubMed Central

Reid, Robert J.; Johnson, Eric A.; Hsu, Clarissa; Ehrlich, Kelly; Coleman, Katie; Trescott, Claire; Erikson, Michael; Ross, Tyler R.; Liss, David T.; Cromp, DeAnn; Fishman, Paul A.

2013-01-01

PURPOSE The patient-centered medical home (PCMH) is being rapidly deployed in many settings to strengthen US primary care, improve quality, and control costs; however, evidence supporting this transformation is still lacking. We describe the Group Health experience in attempting to replicate the effects on health care use seen in a PCMH prototype clinic via a systemwide spread using Lean as the change strategy. METHODS We used an interrupted time series analysis with a patient-month unit of analysis over a 4-year period that included baseline, implementation, and stabilization periods for 412,943 patients. To account for secular trends across these periods, we compared changes in use of face-to-face primary care visits, emergency department visits, and inpatient admissions with those of a nonequivalent comparison group of patients served by community network practices. RESULTS After accounting for secular trends among network patients, patients empaneled to the PCMH clinics had 5.1% and 6.7% declines in primary care office visits in early and later stabilization years, respectively, after the implementation year. This trend was accompanied by a 123% increase in the use of secure electronic message threads and a 20% increase in telephone encounters. Declines were also seen in emergency department visits at 1 and 2 years (13.7% and 18.5%) compared with what would be expected based on secular trends in network practices. No statistically significant changes were found for hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS The Group Health experience shows it is possible to reduce emergency department use with PCMH transformation across a diverse set of clinics using a clear change strategy (Lean) and sufficient resources and supports. PMID:23690382

Secular trends and climate drift in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Bader, David C.

2006-02-01

Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (coupled GCMs) with interactive sea ice are the primary tool for investigating possible future global warming and numerous other issues in climate science. A long-standing problem with such models is that when different components of the physical climate system are linked together, the simulated climate can drift away from observation unless constrained by ad hoc adjustments to interface fluxes. However, 11 modern coupled GCMs, including three that do not employ flux adjustments, behave much better in this respect than the older generation of models. Surface temperature trends in control run simulations (with external climate forcing such as solar brightness and atmospheric carbon dioxide held constant) are small compared with observed trends, which include 20th century climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural factors. Sea ice changes in the models are dominated by interannual variations. Deep ocean temperature and salinity trends are small enough for model control runs to extend over 1000 simulated years or more, but trends in some regions, most notably the Arctic, differ substantially among the models and may be problematic. Methods used to initialize coupled GCMs can mitigate climate drift but cannot eliminate it. Lengthy "spin-ups" of models, made possible by increasing computer power, are one reason for the improvements this paper documents.

[Amebiasis and amebic liver abscess in Mexico: a present-day public health problem].

PubMed

Escandón Romero, C; García Manzo, N T; Escobedo de la Peña, J; Hernández Ramos, J M; Olvera Alvarez, J; Cabral Soto, J

1996-01-01

Amebiasis still remains as a major public health problem in the world. It is one of the most common reasons for medical consult. There are more than half a million cases of amebiasis just at the Mexican Institute of the Social Security. There is still a lack of epidemiologic information on amebiasis in Mexico. To describe the secular trend fro amebiasis and for amebic liver abscess in the Mexican population, as well as in those covered by IMSS Solidaridad. An ecologic trend study was carried on. Incidence rate of amebiasis in all of its forms of presentation, and of amebic liver abscess, were plotted against each year for the 1986-1994 period. Amebiasis incidence in all of its forms of presentation showed a stable trend in this period, as it was seen with amebic liver abscess. Amebiasis is more common in the first years of life. On the contrary, amebic liver abscess showed an inverted 'J' pattern; its occurrence is higher in the extreme years of life. Fatality rates have shown a descendent trend. Amebiasis reflects socioeconomic conditions in Mexico and the fact that Mexican is still an endless culture. There is a need to promote health education, better diagnostic procedures and detection of asymptomatic carriers. Health policies for mothers that are asymptomatic carriers should be reviewed, due to the high rates of amebiasis and amebic liver abscess in children under one year of age.

The Relations between Islam and Secularism: The Impact on Social Behavior in Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ismail, Nik Ahmad Hisham; Tekke, Mustafa

2016-01-01

Secularism as central to society and human life may bring undesired negative consequences in Muslim societies. Increasing social problems among juveniles in Turkey raised questions regarding the right personality development and education of young people. In extending further analysis, we conducted semi-structured interview with experts to assess…

Influences on the onset and tempo of puberty in human beings and implications for adolescent psychological development.

PubMed

Lee, Yvonne; Styne, Dennis

2013-07-01

This article is part of a Special Issue "Puberty and Adolescence". Historical records reveal a secular trend toward earlier onset of puberty in both males and females, often attributed to improvements in nutrition and health status. The trend stabilized during the mid 20th century in many countries, but recent studies describe a recurrence of a decrease in age of pubertal onset. There appears to be an associated change in pubertal tempo in girls, such that girls who enter puberty earlier have a longer duration of puberty. Puberty is influenced by genetic factors but since these effects cannot change dramatically over the past century, environmental effects, including endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), and perinatal conditions offer alternative etiologies. Observations that the secular trends in puberty in girls parallel the obesity epidemic provide another plausible explanation. Early puberty has implications for poor behavioral and psychosocial outcomes as well as health later in life. Irrespective of the underlying cause of the ongoing trend toward early puberty, experts in the field have debated whether these trends should lead clinicians to reconsider a lower age of normal puberty, or whether such a new definition will mask a pathologic etiology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Why did children grow so well at hard times? The ultimate importance of pathogen control during puberty

PubMed Central

Hõrak, Peeter; Valge, Markus

2015-01-01

Background and objectives: Secular increase in human height and performance occurred in Europe throughout the 20th century despite the temporally worsening access to nutrients during and after World War II. This pattern is paradoxical under the assumption of the major impact of pre- and postnatal growth conditions for determination of adult size and human capital. Methodology: We examined the anthropometric parameters of Estonian girls born between 1938 and 1953, and measured around the age of 17 (n = 1475). This period involved two opposite trends in the economic and epidemiological situation: increasing birth-time economic hardships during the war and particularly in the post-war period, and decreasing infant mortality (a proxy of disease burden) after 1947. Results: Height of girls was negatively affected by the number of siblings and positively by parental socioeconomic position, but these effects were weaker than the secular trend. Leg length (an indicator of pre-pubertal growth conditions) was independent of age and birth date while all other traits, including measures of performance (cranial volume, lung capacity and handgrip strength) showed acceleration. The best predictor of size at age 17 was, in most cases, infant mortality in the year when the girls were aged 11. Conclusions and implications: Reduction of disease burden during pubertal growth can override effects of resource shortage at birth. Our results also support the idea that increasing efficiency of pathogen control can contribute to the secular increase in cognitive abilities, i.e. the Flynn effect, and that epidemiological transition is the main driver of secular increase in human capital. PMID:26198188

Groupies and Loners: The Population of Multi-planet Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Laerhoven, Christa L.; Greenberg, Richard

2014-11-01

Observational surveys with Kepler and other telescopes have shown that multi-planet systems are very numerous. Considering the secular dynamcis of multi-planet systems provides substantial insight into the interactions between planets in those systems. Since the underlying secular structure of a multi-planet system (the secular eigenmodes) can be calculated using only the planets' masses and semi-major axes, one can elucidate the eccentricity and inclination behavior of planets in those systems even without knowing the planets' current eccentricities and inclinations. We have calculated both the eccentricity and inclination secular eigenmodes for the population of known multi-planet systems whose planets have well determined masses and periods. We will discuss the commonality of dynamically grouped planets ('groupies') vs dynamically uncoupled planets ('loners'), and compare to what would be expected from randomly generated systems with the same overall distribution of masses and semi-major axes. We will also discuss the occurrence of planets that strongly influence the behavior of other planets without being influenced by those others ('overlords'). Examples will be given and general trends will be discussed.

Un/Covering: Female Religious Converts Learning the Problems and Pragmatics of Physical Observance in the Secular World

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galman, Sally Campbell

2013-01-01

This article presents the experiences of three women who have chosen to move from secular, assimilated lives to lives characterized by the distinctive dress and practice associated with observant Islam, Orthodox Judaism, and Orthodox Christianity, respectively. All three relied upon informal, peer, and distance learning strategies for their…

ACRIM-gap and total solar irradiance revisited: Is there a secular trend between 1986 and 1996?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Wenzler, T.

2009-10-01

A gap in the total solar irradiance (TSI) measurements between ACRIM-1 and ACRIM-2 led to the ongoing debate on the presence or not of a secular trend between the minima preceding cycles 22 (in 1986) and 23 (1996). It was recently proposed to use the SATIRE model of solar irradiance variations to bridge this gap. When doing this, it is important to use the appropriate SATIRE-based reconstruction, which we do here, employing a reconstruction based on magnetograms. The accuracy of this model on months to years timescales is significantly higher than that of a model developed for long-term reconstructions used by the ACRIM team for such an analysis. The constructed ‘mixed’ ACRIM — SATIRE composite shows no increase in the TSI from 1986 to 1996, in contrast to the ACRIM TSI composite.

Sunspot random walk and 22-year variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua

2012-01-01

We examine two stochastic models for consistency with observed long-term secular trends in sunspot number and a faint, but semi-persistent, 22-yr signal: (1) a null hypothesis, a simple one-parameter random-walk model of sunspot-number cycle-to-cycle change, and, (2) an alternative hypothesis, a two-parameter random-walk model with an imposed 22-yr alternating amplitude. The observed secular trend in sunspots, seen from solar cycle 5 to 23, would not be an unlikely result of the accumulation of multiple random-walk steps. Statistical tests show that a 22-yr signal can be resolved in historical sunspot data; that is, the probability is low that it would be realized from random data. On the other hand, the 22-yr signal has a small amplitude compared to random variation, and so it has a relatively small effect on sunspot predictions. Many published predictions for cycle 24 sunspots fall within the dispersion of previous cycle-to-cycle sunspot differences. The probability is low that the Sun will, with the accumulation of random steps over the next few cycles, walk down to a Dalton-like minimum. Our models support published interpretations of sunspot secular variation and 22-yr variation resulting from cycle-to-cycle accumulation of dynamo-generated magnetic energy.

The U.S. Army Religious Support Environment of 2020

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-20

religion is very important in their lives.36 Millennials search for meaning, not structure. Religious leaders who observe Millennials describe them as...studies or worship.31 An analysis of the tension between secular culture and traditional religion revealed a trend toward an evolving religious landscape...future.  Third trend layer: There exists an undercurrent of movement away from traditional American cultural perceptions of spirituality, religion

Secular changes in height, body weight, body mass index and pubertal development in male children and adolescents in Krakow, Poland.

PubMed

Kryst, Łukasz; Kowal, Małgorzata; Woronkowicz, Agnieszka; Sobiecki, Jan; Cichocka, Barbara Anna

2012-07-01

This study examined the secular changes in height, body weight, body mass index and pubertal development in male children and adolescents in Krakow (Poland) over the past 80 years, with an emphasis on the last decade (2000-2010). The survey of the population of Krakow is a continuation of observations conducted in that area for many years. The analysis aims to determine whether in the last decade Krakow still witnessed the secular trend, and what form the trend took. The body height and weight, and body mass index (BMI), of 1862 boys aged 3.5-18.5 years were analysed, against the background of a survey series from the years 1938 (N = 1801), 1971 (N = 2045), 1983 (N = 3124) and 2000 (N = 2328). The mean body height, in almost all age categories, was greater than in the past; however the final height over the last decade remained the same. The mean values of body weight and BMI increased, especially in the last decade. Also, an acceleration of puberty in boys was observed. The last 10 years saw an over 3-month decrease in the age of initial appearance of pubic hair in boys. In conclusion, the last decade saw cessation of the growing taller trend: maximum body height stabilized at approximately 179 cm, but weight and BMI increased. Also, a distinct acceleration of puberty was noticed. Lack of height increase, at the same time as weight gain and puberty acceleration, indicate a progressing developmental disharmony.

A paired apatite and calcite clumped isotope thermometry approach to estimating Cambro-Ordovician seawater temperatures and isotopic composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergmann, Kristin D.; Finnegan, Seth; Creel, Roger; Eiler, John M.; Hughes, Nigel C.; Popov, Leonid E.; Fischer, Woodward W.

2018-03-01

The secular increase in δ18O values of both calcitic and phosphatic marine fossils through early Phanerozoic time suggests either that (1) early Paleozoic surface temperatures were high, in excess of 40 °C (tropical MAT), (2) the δ18O value of seawater has increased by 7-8‰ VSMOW through Paleozoic time, or (3) diagenesis has altered secular trends in early Paleozoic samples. Carbonate clumped isotope analysis, in combination with petrographic and elemental analysis, can deconvolve fluid composition from temperature effects and therefore determine which of these hypotheses best explain the secular δ18O increase. Clumped isotope measurements of a suite of calcitic and phosphatic marine fossils from late Cambrian- to Middle-late Ordovician-aged strata-the first paired fossil study of its kind-document tropical sea surface temperatures near modern temperatures (26-38 °C) and seawater oxygen isotope ratios similar to today's ratios.

Trends and determinants of the Flynn effect in cognitive functioning among older individuals in 10 European countries.

PubMed

Hessel, Philipp; Kinge, Jonas M; Skirbekk, Vegard; Staudinger, Ursula M

2018-05-01

Although cognitive performance levels in old age have increased in most countries, recent evidence documents a slowing down or even decline in cohort gains in highly developed countries. The aim of this study was to assess trends and determinants in secular cohort gains in cognitive functioning among older individuals and whether cohort gains are levelling off in most advanced countries. Data for individuals aged between 50 and 84 years from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe in 10 European countries between 2004 and 2013 (n=92 739) were used to assess country and age-specific changes in immediate word recall. Multivariate random intercept models were used to assess associations between secular cohort changes in immediate word recall, initial performance levels and changes in country-level socio-demographic characteristics. Performance in immediate word recall improved in all countries between 2004 and 2013 (from 4.40 to 5.08 words, P<0.05). However, secular cohort gains were significantly smaller in countries with initially higher performance levels (coeff.=-0.554, 95% CI -0.682 to -0.426). Changes in socio-demographic and health conditions, including decreases in cardiovascular disease, physical activity and educational achievement, were associated with larger secular cohort gains. Results may either reflect that some countries are approaching the limits of cognitive plasticity, are slowing in their progress or that societal structures have not yet been optimised to improve cognitive abilities in midlife and beyond, or a combination of these interpretations. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Age at spermarche: 15-year trend and its association with body mass index in Chinese school-aged boys.

PubMed

Song, Y; Ma, J; Wang, H-J; Wang, Z; Lau, P W C; Agardh, A

2016-10-01

Little is known about the secular trends in age at spermarche among boys, and the association between body mass index (BMI) and male puberty is controversial. This study aimed to estimate the trend in age at spermarche in China and explore the association of spermarche with BMI. We used four cross-sectional Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health (CNSSCH; 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010). Median age at spermarche was determined using probit analysis. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of spermarche with BMI. Age at spermarche among Chinese boys dropped from 14.57 to 14.03 years from 1995 to 2010 with a decrease of 4.3 months per decade. Boys with BMI-for-age z-score lower than -2 had the latest age at spermarche. A higher BMI or BMI-for-age z-score was associated with an increased likelihood of having reached spermarche, and this association was consistently observed at all survey points. This study provides important evidence of a secular trend of earlier age at spermarche over the past 15 years in China, and this decrease was accompanied by a simultaneous increase in BMI. Strategies and interventions focusing on thinness may promote both their nutritional status and puberty development among Chinese boys. © 2015 World Obesity.

Body image and eating behaviors in Orthodox and Secular Jewish women.

PubMed

Gluck, Marci E; Geliebter, Allan

2002-01-01

To explore the impact of religion on the development of disturbances in body image and eating behaviors. 78 Orthodox Jewish women were compared with 48 secular Jewish women. Participants completed the Body Shape Questionnaire (BSQ), the Eating Disorder Examination-Questionnaire Version (EDE-Q), and the Figure Rating Scale (FRS). Despite a similar body mass index of 22.2 +/- 2.8 SDs, the secular women scored significantly higher on the BSQ (P = .005) and the EDE-Q (P = .004) than the Orthodox women. The secular women also had greater eating disorder symptomatology: more laxative use (P = .02) and a trend toward more vomiting (P = .06) and diuretic use (P = .06), although not more binge eating. They were twice as likely to have a fear of becoming fat (P = .05) and were four times as likely to be influenced by their shape and weight (P = .001). Also, despite increased media exposure, the secular group chose an ideal body size on the FRS similar to that of the Orthodox group, suggesting that their greater body dissatisfaction on the BSQ was related, instead, to greater cultural pressure for thinness (P = .007) and more shame about appearance (P = .04). Our findings show that membership in a strict, insulated religious group such as Orthodox Judaism may protect women, to some extent, from developing body dissatisfaction and eating pathology.

Comments on "Long-Term Variations of Exospheric Temperature Inferred From foF1 Observations: A Comparison to ISR Ti Trend Estimates" by Perrone and Mikhailov

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shun-Rong; Holt, John M.; Erickson, Philip J.; Goncharenko, Larisa P.

2018-05-01

Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) and Mikhailov et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA023909) have recently examined thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends using a data set of four thermospheric parameters (Tex, [O], [N2], and [O2]) and solar EUV flux. These data were derived from one single ionospheric parameter, foF1, using a nonlinear fitting procedure involving a photochemical model for the F1 peak. The F1 peak is assumed at the transition height ht with the linear recombination for atomic oxygen ions being equal to the quadratic recombination for molecular ions. This procedure has a number of obvious problems that are not addressed or not sufficiently justified. The potentially large ambiguities and biases in derived parameters make them unsuitable for precise quantitative ionospheric and thermospheric long-term trend studies. Furthermore, we assert that Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) conclusions regarding incoherent scatter radar (ISR) ion temperature analysis for long-term trend studies are incorrect and in particular are based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the incoherent scatter radar measurement process. Large ISR data sets remain a consistent and statistically robust method for determining long term secular plasma temperature trends.

Asteroid proper elements and secular resonances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knezevic, Zoran; Milani, Andrea

1992-01-01

In a series of papers (e.g., Knezevic, 1991; Milani and Knezevic, 1990; 1991) we reported on the progress we were making in computing asteroid proper elements, both as regards their accuracy and long-term stability. Additionally, we reported on the efficiency and 'intelligence' of our software. At the same time, we studied the associated problems of resonance effects, and we introduced the new class of 'nonlinear' secular resonances; we determined the locations of these secular resonances in proper-element phase space and analyzed their impact on the asteroid family classification. Here we would like to summarize the current status of our work and possible further developments.

An analysis of secular trends in method-specific suicides in Japan, 1950-1975.

PubMed

Yoshioka, Eiji; Saijo, Yasuaki; Kawachi, Ichiro

2017-04-05

In Japan, a dramatic rise in suicide rates was observed in the 1950s, especially among the younger population, and then the rate decreased rapidly again in the 1960s. The aim of this study was to assess secular trends in method-specific suicides by gender and age in Japan between 1950 and 1975. We paid special attention to suicides by poisoning (solid and liquid substances), and their contribution to dramatic swings in the overall suicide rate in Japan during the 1950s and 1960s. Mortality and population data were obtained from the Vital Statistics of Japan and Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in Japan, respectively. We calculated method-specific age-standardized suicide rates by gender and age group (15-29, 30-49, or 50+ years). The change in the suicide rate during the research period was larger in males than females in all age groups, and was more marked among people aged 15-29 years compared to those aged 30-49 years and 50 years or over. Poisoning by solid and liquid substances overwhelmingly contributed to the dramatic change in the overall suicide rates in males and females aged 15-49 years in the 1950s and 1960s. For the peak years of the rise in poisoning suicides, bromide was the most frequently used substance. Our results for the 1950s and 1960s in Japan illustrated how assessing secular trends in method-specific suicides by gender and age could provide a deeper understanding of the dramatic swings in overall suicide rate. Although rapid increases or decreases in suicide rates have been also observed in some countries or regions recently, trends in method-specific suicides have not been analyzed because of a lack of data on method-specific suicide in many countries. Our study illustrates how the collection and analysis of method-specific data can contribute to an understanding of dramatic shifts in national suicide rates.

Religiosity as a protective factor against suicidal behaviour.

PubMed

Burshtein, S; Dohrenwend, B P; Levav, I; Werbeloff, N; Davidson, M; Weiser, M

2016-06-01

Data suggest that adherence to religious beliefs is associated with lower rates of suicide. A number of mediating factors have been hypothesized to explain this association, including enhanced social support, less substance abuse, and lower rates of psychopathology. We utilized data from a two-phase population-based, epidemiological study of mental disorders among young Jewish Israel born in a 10-year birth-cohort conducted in the 1980s. This study included data on religiosity and suicidal behaviour. Twenty-five years thereafter, mortality data were obtained from a national vital statistics registry. Rates of suicidal ideation were similar among secular, partially observant, and religious subjects (9.4%, 6.7%, and 6.2%, respectively; adjusted OR for linear trend: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.58-1.09). Rates of suicide attempts were significantly lower among religious subjects (2.4%, 2.5%, and 0.4% for secular, partially observant, and religious, respectively; adjusted OR for linear trend: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.43-0.88). Of the 4914 subjects, eight died by suicide: Seven of them were secular and one was partially observant (χ(2) = 2.52, P = 0.09). There were no differences in social functioning or rates of psychopathology among the study groups. Religiosity has a protective effect against suicide attempts, which is independent of social functioning, psychopathology, and substance use. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fundamental movement skills in adolescents: Secular trends from 2003 to 2010 and associations with physical activity and BMI.

PubMed

Huotari, P; Heikinaro-Johansson, P; Watt, A; Jaakkola, T

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to examine the secular trends in fundamental movement skills (FMS) among 15- to 16-year-old adolescents at 2 assessment points scheduled in 2003 and 2010 and to investigate the associations between FMS, physical activity (PA), and body mass index (BMI). In 2003, self-reported PA, weight and height, and objective FMS scores were collected from 2390 students, and in 2010, similar data were generated from a second sample of 1346 students. FMS were assessed during both assessment phases using 3 identical objective FMS tests that were figure 8 dribbling, jumping laterally, and coordination track tests. This study indicated that the sum index of FMS did not change among the boys and the girls between 2 data collection points. However, findings demonstrated a secular decline in coordination test scores in both gender groups between 2 measurement points but an improvement in girls' object control skills between 2003 and 2010. The results also showed that FMS had a significant main effect on BMI in both gender groups, whereas the main effect of PA on BMI was not significant for either gender group. Results also demonstrated that there was no significant interaction effect between FMS and PA on BMI in either of the girls' or the boys' groups. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ten-year trends in coronary calcification in individuals without clinical cardiovascular disease in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Bild, Diane E; McClelland, Robyn; Kaufman, Joel D; Blumenthal, Roger; Burke, Gregory L; Carr, J Jeffrey; Post, Wendy S; Register, Thomas C; Shea, Steven; Szklo, Moyses

2014-01-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence has declined significantly in the US, as have levels of major coronary risk factors, including LDL-cholesterol, hypertension and smoking, but whether trends in subclinical atherosclerosis mirror these trends is not known. To describe recent secular trends in subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by serial evaluations of coronary artery calcification (CAC) prevalence in a population over 10 years, we measured CAC using computed tomography (CT) and CHD risk factors in five serial cross-sectional samples of men and women from four race/ethnic groups, aged 55-84 and without clinical cardiovascular disease, who were members of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort from 2000 to 2012. Sample sizes ranged from 1062 to 4837. After adjusting for age, gender, and CT scanner, the prevalence of CAC increased across exams among African Americans, whose prevalence of CAC was 52.4% in 2000-02, 50.4% in 2003-04, 60.0% is 2005-06, 57.4% in 2007-08, and 61.3% in 2010-12 (p for trend <0.001). The trend was strongest among African Americans aged 55-64 [prevalence ratio for 2010-12 vs. 2000-02, 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 2.39); p = 0.005 for trend across exams]. There were no consistent trends in any other ethnic group. Risk factors generally improved in the cohort, and adjustment for risk factors did not change trends in CAC prevalence. There was a significant secular trend towards increased prevalence of CAC over 10 years among African Americans and no change in three other ethnic groups. Trends did not reflect concurrent general improvement in risk factors. The trend towards a higher prevalence of CAC in African Americans suggests that CHD risk in this population is not improving relative to other groups.

Molecular Subtypes of Breast Cancer: Long-term Incidence Trends and Prognostic Differences.

PubMed

Valla, Marit; Vatten, Lars Johan; Engstrøm, Monica Jernberg; Haugen, Olav Anton; Akslen, Lars Andreas; Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Hagen, Anne Irene; Ytterhus, Borgny; Bofin, Anna Mary; Opdahl, Signe

2016-12-01

Secular trends in incidence and prognosis of molecular breast cancer subtypes are poorly described. We studied long-term trends in a population of Norwegian women born 1886-1977. A total of 52,949 women were followed for breast cancer incidence, and 1,423 tumors were reclassified into molecular subtypes using IHC and in situ hybridization. We compared incidence rates among women born 1886-1928 and 1929-1977, estimated age-specific incidence rate ratios (IRR), and performed multiple imputations to account for unknown subtype. Prognosis was compared for women diagnosed before 1995 and in 1995 or later, estimating cumulative risk of death and HRs. Between 50 and 69 years of age, incidence rates of Luminal A and Luminal B (HER2 - ) were higher among women born in 1929 or later, compared with before 1929 [IRRs 50-54 years; after imputations: 3.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8-6.9 and 2.5; 95% CI, 1.2-5.2, respectively], with no clear differences for other subtypes. Rates of death were lower in women diagnosed in 1995 or later, compared to before 1995, for Luminal A (HR 0.4; 95% CI, 0.3-0.5), Luminal B (HER2 - ; HR 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3-0.7), and Basal phenotype (HR 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.9). We found a strong secular incidence increase restricted to Luminal A and Luminal B (HER2 - ) subtypes, combined with a markedly improved prognosis for these subtypes and for the Basal phenotype. This study documents a clear secular increase in incidence and a concomitant improved prognosis for specific molecular breast cancer subtypes. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(12); 1625-34. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Aging Baby Boomers and the Rising Cost of Chronic Back Pain: Secular Trend Analysis of Longitudinal Medical Expenditures Panel Survey Data for Years 2000 to 2007

PubMed Central

Smith, Monica; Davis, Matthew A.; Stano, Miron; Whedon, James M.

2013-01-01

Objectives The purposes of this study were to analyze data from the longitudinal Medical Expenditures Panel Survey (MEPS) to evaluate the impact of an aging population on secular trends in back pain and chronicity and to provide estimates of treatment costs for patients who used only ambulatory services. Methods Using the MEPS 2-year longitudinal data for years 2000 to 2007, we analyzed data from all adult respondents. Of the total number of MEPS respondent records analyzed (N = 71 838), we identified 12 104 respondents with back pain and further categorized 3842 as chronic cases and 8262 as nonchronic cases. Results Secular trends from the MEPS data indicate that the prevalence of back pain has increased by 29%, whereas chronic back pain increased by 64%. The average age among all adults with back pain increased from 45.9 to 48.2 years; the average age among adults with chronic back pain increased from 48.5 to 52.2 years. Inflation-adjusted (to 2010 dollars) biennial expenditures on ambulatory services for chronic back pain increased by 129% over the same period, from $15.6 billion in 2000 to 2001 to $35.7 billion in 2006 to 2007. Conclusion The prevalence of back pain, especially chronic back pain, is increasing. To the extent that the growth in chronic back pain is caused, in part, by an aging population, the growth will likely continue or accelerate. With relatively high cost per adult with chronic back pain, total expenditures associated with back pain will correspondingly accelerate under existing treatment patterns. This carries implications for prioritizing health policy, clinical practice, and research efforts to improve care outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness and for health workforce planning. PMID:23380209

Comprehensive smoke-free policies attract more support from smokers in Europe than partial policies

PubMed Central

Nagelhout, Gera E.; Guignard, Romain; McNeill, Ann; van den Putte, Bas; Willemsen, Marc C.; Brenner, Hermann; Pötschke-Langer, Martina; Breitling, Lutz P.

2012-01-01

Background: Support for smoke-free policies increases over time and particularly after implementation of the policy. In this study we examined whether the comprehensiveness of such policies moderates the effect on support among smokers. Methods: We analysed two waves (pre- and post-smoke-free legislation) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) surveys in France, Germany, and the Netherlands, and two pre-legislation waves of the ITC surveys in UK as control. Of 6,903 baseline smokers, 4,945 (71.6%) could be followed up and were included in the analyses. Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE) were used to compare changes in support from pre- to post-legislation to the secular trend in the control country. Multiple logistic regression models were employed to identify predictors of individual change in support. Findings: In France, the comprehensive smoking ban was associated with sharp increases in support for a total smoking ban in drinking establishments and restaurants that were above secular trends. In Germany and the Netherlands, where smoke-free policies and compliance are especially deficient in drinking establishments, only support for a total smoking ban in restaurants increased above the secular trend. Notable prospective predictors of becoming supportive of smoking bans in these countries were higher awareness of cigarette smoke being dangerous to others and weekly visiting of restaurants. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that smoke-free policies have the potential to improve support once the policy is in place. This effect seems to be most pronounced with comprehensive smoking bans, which thus might be the most valid option for policy-makers despite their potential for creating controversy and resistance in the beginning. PMID:22294779

Family Income and Education Were Related with 30-Year Time Trends in Dietary and Meal Behaviors of American Children and Adolescents123

PubMed Central

Kant, Ashima K.; Graubard, Barry I.

2013-01-01

Recent survey data reveal the persistence of long-acknowledged socioeconomic status (SES) differentials in the prevalence of obesity in U.S. children and adolescents. We examined 30-y changes in the association of dietary and meal behaviors with family income and education to understand the possible contribution of these trends to SES trends in obesity rates in 2- to 19-y-old Americans. We used dietary and SES data for 2- to 19-y olds from the NHANES 1971–1974 to 2003–2008 (n = 39,822). The secular changes in the independent association of family income and education with 24-h dietary behaviors [energy intake (kcal), amount of foods and beverages (g), percent energy from all beverages and from nutritive beverages, and energy density of foods] and 24-h meal behaviors [number of eating occasions, energy from snack episodes (%), and mention of breakfast] were examined using multivariable regression methods. The secular increase in energy intake and food and beverage amount was significant in the lowest family SES categories. The positive association of family income and education with intakes of energy, food amounts, and beverage energy, noted in 1971–1974 or 1976–1980, was not observed in later surveys. There was an age gradient in changes in most diet and SES associations over time, with largest adverse changes in 12- to 19-y olds. Higher education was associated with lower energy from snack episodes, breakfast skipping, and energy density of foods and these associations did not change over time. Overall, these results suggest both income and education differentials in secular increases in food amounts and energy intakes. PMID:23514763

Technical Limitations in Merging Secular and Sacred Functions in Monumental Churches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piatkowska, Ksenia

2017-10-01

The abandonment of churches and their adaptation for secular purposes is a current subject in Europe and worldwide. Most cases involve objects that were desacralized and then rebuilt as a whole object for alternative functions. Thus far, the merging of secular and sacred functions in one monumental Catholic church has not raised any issues. The paper describes the case of St. Catherine’s Church in Gdansk, Poland, where sacred function exists parallel to the new secular function being implemented. The study is based on the authentic, professional experience of the author. It describes the technical limitations arising from the need to ensure destinies for the optimal conditions of both sacred and secular function, while avoiding undesirable interference between them. The author further identifies architectural solutions most relevant to current requirements for protection of sacred zones in the church, for preservation of the monument, and for optimal function of a modern science museum. Significant design issues include: the inviolability of the sacred zone, preservation of the historical value of the monument, proper operation of new secular zones in compliance with contemporary standards of safety, performance of the assumed mission and profitability. The research indicates specific areas where the highest probability of collision exists between the sacred and profane and where technical problems are likely to occur.

The vexing problem of thrombosis in long-term mechanical circulatory support.

PubMed

Mehra, Mandeep R; Stewart, Garrick C; Uber, Patricia A

2014-01-01

Durable left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) have not only enhanced longevity but also conferred sustained improvements in quality of life, symptom control, and functional capacity in patients with medically refractory advanced heart failure. Problems with device-related infection, bleeding, neurologic events, right-sided heart failure, and device malfunction have dominated the clinical care of patients living on mechanical support. Even as adoption of durable LVADs accelerated globally, we began to encounter a growing dilemma of pump malfunction caused by thrombosis. In early 2011, clinicians began to notice a spike in the incidence of pump thrombosis with the HeartMate II (Thoratec Corp, Pleasanton, CA) LVAD. By 2012, the problem of thrombosis in LVADs began to consume most of the scientific direction as centers and collaborative groups began to dissect this nascent phenomenon. In this perspective, we describe the magnitude and implications of pump thrombosis, discuss secular and management trends in this unique population, attempt to dissect the problem at its root, offer guidance on surveillance and therapeutic principles, and outline issues that deserve our immediate and collaborative attention. © 2014 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation Published by International Society for the Heart and Lung Transplantation All rights reserved.

Propagation of sound in turbulent media

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wenzel, A. R.

1976-01-01

Perturbation methods commonly used to study the propagation of acoustic waves in turbulent media are reviewed. Emphasis is on those techniques which are applicable to problems involving long-range propagation in the atmosphere and ocean. Characteristic features of the various methods are illustrated by applying them to particular problems. It is shown that conventional perturbation techniques, such as the Born approximation, yield solutions which contain secular terms, and which therefore have a relatively limited range of validity. In contrast, it is found that solutions obtained with the aid of the Rytov method or the smoothing method do not contain secular terms, and consequently have a much greater range of validity.

Biosurveillance in a Highly Mobile Population - Year 3

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

provides an opportunity- rich tested for the impact upon infectious disease modeling, biosurveillance, and public health. Kulldorf et al (2005) assessed...Secular Circles and Millenial Trends. URSS, Moscow 2006 Kulldorff M, Heffernan R, Hartman J, Assunção RM, Mostashari F. (2005). “Space-Time Permutation

A six decades long follow-up on body size in adolescents from Zagreb, Croatia (1951-2010).

PubMed

Zajc Petranović, Matea; Tomas, Željka; Smolej Narančić, Nina; Škarić-Jurić, Tatjana; Veček, Andrea; Miličić, Jasna

2014-03-01

Most studies analysing the influence of socioeconomic deterioration on body size focus on the impact of food shortages and diseases on the growth in early childhood. To evaluate how socioeconomic conditions influence the growth during the adolescence, we tracked the body size of 15-19 year-olds over the last sixty years covering the socialist period (1951-1990), the war (1991-1995) and the transition to capitalistic economy. This study of Zagreb, Croatia, adolescent population provides information on the secular trend in height, weight and Body Mass Index (BMI) and examines their relation with Real Gross Domestic Product. From 1951 to 2010 the girls' height approximately increased by 6.2cm and weight by 6.8kg, while the boys' height increased by 12.2cm and weight by 17.3kg. Prior to 1991 mean BMI in girls was higher than in boys, but from 1991 on, the interrelation between the sexes has been opposite, possibly mirroring the cultural trends that started in mid-1970s and reflecting higher sensitivity of boys to the socioeconomic changes. In conclusion, the secular trend in body size over the investigated period reflects the positive economic trends interrupted by the war. The recent increase in BMI corresponds to the country's economic recovery and indicates the "nutrition transition". Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Secular trends in ischemic stroke subtypes and stroke risk factors.

PubMed

Bogiatzi, Chrysi; Hackam, Daniel G; McLeod, A Ian; Spence, J David

2014-11-01

Early diagnosis and treatment of a stroke improves patient outcomes, and knowledge of the cause of the initial event is crucial to identification of the appropriate therapy to maximally reduce risk of recurrence. Assumptions based on historical frequency of ischemic subtypes may need revision if stroke subtypes are changing as a result of recent changes in therapy, such as increased use of statins. We analyzed secular trends in stroke risk factors and ischemic stroke subtypes among patients with transient ischemic attack or minor or moderate stroke referred to an urgent transient ischemic attack clinic from 2002 to 2012. There was a significant decline in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and blood pressure, associated with a significant decline in large artery stroke and small vessel stroke. The proportion of cardioembolic stroke increased from 26% in 2002 to 56% in 2012 (P<0.05 for trend). Trends remained significant after adjusting for population change. With more intensive medical management in the community, a significant decrease in atherosclerotic risk factors was observed, with a significant decline in stroke/transient ischemic attack caused by large artery atherosclerosis and small vessel disease. As a result, cardioembolic stroke/transient ischemic attack has increased significantly. Our findings suggest that more intensive investigation for cardiac sources of embolism and greater use of anticoagulation may be warranted. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

What's the problem? A response to "secular humanism and scientific psychiatry"

PubMed Central

Bolton, Derek

2006-01-01

Notwithstanding the interest and importance of Szasz's position, it neglects the phenomena, the real problems which take people to the clinic seeking treatment, and the conditionality of the notion of individual responsibility. PMID:16759418

Secular variations in zonal harmonics of Earth's geopotential and their implications for mantle viscosity and Antarctic melting history due to the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakada, Masao; Okuno, Jun'ichi

2017-06-01

Secular variations in zonal harmonics of Earth's geopotential based on the satellite laser ranging observations, {\\dot{J}_n}, contain important information about the Earth's deformation due to the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and recent melting of glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Here, we examine the GIA-induced {\\dot{J}_n}, \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} (2 ≤ n ≤ 6), derived from the available geopotential zonal secular rate and recent melting taken from the IPCC 2013 Report (AR5) to explore the possibility of additional information on the depth-dependent lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model inferred from the analyses of the \\dot{J}_2^{GIA} and relative sea level changes. The sensitivities of the \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} to lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model with a global averaged eustatic sea level (ESL) of ∼130 m indicate that the secular rates for n = 3 and 4 are mainly caused by the viscous response of the lower mantle to the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet regardless of GIA ice models adopted in this study. Also, the analyses of the \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} based on the available geopotential zonal secular rates indicate that permissible lower-mantle viscosity structure satisfying even zonal secular rates of n = 2, 4 and 6 is obtained for the GIA ice model with an Antarctic ESL component of ∼20 or ∼30 m, but there is no viscosity solution satisfying \\dot{J}_3^{GIA} and \\dot{J}_5^{GIA} values. Moreover, the inference model for the lower-mantle viscosity and GIA ice model from each odd zonal secular rate is distinctly different from that satisfying GIA-induced even zonal secular rate. The discrepancy between the inference models for the even and odd zonal secular rates may partly be attributed to uncertainties of the geopotential zonal secular rates for n > 2 and particularly those for odd zonal secular rates due to weakness in the orbital geometry. If this problem is overcome at least for the secular rates of n < 5, then the analyses of the \\dot{J}_n^{GIA} would make it possible to put more convincing constraints on the lower-mantle viscosity structure and GIA ice model, particularly for the controversial Antarctic melting history in GIA community.

Research in Celestial Mechanics and Differential Equations.

DTIC Science & Technology

Contents: A geopotential representation with sampling functions; Sampling functions as an alternative to spherical harmonics; The Levi - Civita ...restricted problem of three bodies ; Secular perturbations of periodic comets; Resonance in the restricted problem of three bodies ; Two centers of

Height of South Asian children in the Netherlands aged 0-20 years: secular trends and comparisons with current Asian Indian, Dutch and WHO references.

PubMed

de Wilde, Jeroen A; van Dommelen, Paula; van Buuren, Stef; Middelkoop, Barend J C

2015-01-01

People from Asian populations are generally shorter than other ethnic groups. It is unknown if current universal height references are suitable for affluent South Asian children in the Netherlands. To develop height-for-age charts for contemporary South Asian children aged 0-20 years living in the Netherlands, to evaluate secular trends, and to compare the charts with current Asian Indian, Dutch and WHO references. A population-based study measured 3315 South Asian children aged 0-20 years between 2007-2010. Among this cohort, 6876 measurements were taken. Another 7388 measurements were taken of a historical cohort of 1078 children born between 1974-1976 (aged 0-18 years). An upward trend in height was observed for South Asian children living in the Netherlands between 1992-2010. The height-for-age charts of the South Asian historical cohort were similar to current Asian Indian charts. South Asian children in the Netherlands were shorter than their Dutch contemporaries at every age; and these differences increased further during adolescence. Compared to the WHO height-for-age references, there were considerable discrepancies in height, with curves intersecting twice. The discrepancies between the South Asian and Dutch and WHO height-for-age references indicate differences in growth patterns between the source populations.

Secular Trend of Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components in a Cohort of Iranian Adults from 2001 to 2013.

PubMed

Khosravi-Boroujeni, Hossein; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Roohafza, Hamidreza; Talaei, Mohammad; Ng, Shu-Kay; Phung, Hai; Pourmogaddas, Ali; Ahmed, Faruk

2017-04-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components increase the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, and all-cause mortality. Reports on the trends of MetS and its components in longitudinal studies are scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study was designed to investigate the prevalence and trends of MetS and its components in a cohort of Iranian adults from 2001 to 2013. Participants were followed up for 12 years in a longitudinal population-based study of 6500 adults aged 35 years and older in 2001. Participants were randomly selected from three provinces in central Iran. Sociodemographic characteristics, anthropometry, blood pressure, and various biochemical indices were collected in 2001, 2007, and 2013. Secular trend and age-adjusted trend of MetS and its components were calculated from 2001 to 2013. The standardized prevalence of MetS, hypertension, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), abdominal obesity, and diabetes/impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) increased over the 12 years (6.9%, 5.5%, 12.0%, 2.3%, and 18.7%, respectively), while the prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia decreased by 15.5% during this period. The prevalence of MetS, low HDL-C, and abdominal obesity were higher in females than males in all three phases. Moreover, the increases in the prevalence of these metabolic abnormalities were higher in the rural population than in the urban population. The present study underscored the increasing trends in MetS and most of its risk factors, thus, to prevent an increase in the cardiovascular risk factors, there is a need to improve lifestyle by education, screening, and treatment of abnormalities.

Trends in mouth cancer incidence in Mumbai, India (1995-2009): An age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Shridhar, Krithiga; Rajaraman, Preetha; Koyande, Shravani; Parikh, Purvish M; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Dhillon, Preet K; Dikshit, Rajesh P

2016-06-01

Despite tobacco control and health promotion efforts, the incidence rates of mouth cancer are increasing across most regions in India. Analysing the influence of age, time period and birth cohort on these secular trends can point towards underlying factors and help identify high-risk populations for improved cancer control programmes. We evaluated secular changes in mouth cancer incidence among men and women aged 25-74 years in Mumbai between 1995 and 2009 by calculating age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We estimated the age-adjusted linear trend for annual percent change (EAPC) using the drift parameter, and conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to quantify recent time trends and to evaluate the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. Over the 15-year period, age-standardized incidence rates of mouth cancer in men in Mumbai increased by 2.7% annually (95% CI:1.9 to 3.4), p<0.0001) while rates among women decreased (EAPC=-0.01% (95% CI:-0.02 to -0.002), p=0.03). APC analysis revealed significant non-linear positive period and cohort effects in men, with higher effects among younger men (25-49 years). Non-significant increasing trends were observed in younger women (25-49 years). APC analyses from the Mumbai cancer registry indicate a significant linear increase of mouth cancer incidence from 1995 to 2009 in men, which was driven by younger men aged 25-49 years, and a non-significant upward trend in similarly aged younger women. Health promotion efforts should more effectively target younger cohorts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Secular trends in the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity across Australian states: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ho, Ngoc-Thuy-Vi Sophia; Olds, Tim; Schranz, Natasha; Maher, Carol

2017-05-01

To describe secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Australian children in each state and territory. Systematic search and numerical meta-analysis. A systematic search was conducted to identify all sources that objectively measured the height and weight of Australian children (aged 2-18 years) and had a sample size of at least 300. Raw and summary data were requested from authors and divided into age×sex×state×yearly slices to derive estimates of the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Following a double arcsine transformation to facilitate meta-analysis, all estimates were standardised for age, stratified by sex and analysed using sample-weighted non-linear regressions. The systematic search identified 73 eligible sources (47 raw and 26 summary datasets), with 72.8% of data sourced from Victoria and South Australia. Prevalence trends varied from state to state, with three states or territories showing a marked plateau, two showing a decline in the more recent years and three showing continued linear increases. Tasmania and Northern Territory generally had the highest prevalence (30.2% and 24.3% overweight and obesity respectively), and the Australian Capital Territory had the lowest (12.4% overweight and obesity). Prevalence, as well as prevalence trends, varied amongst Australian states and territories. At a national level, the prevalence trend has nearly plateaued for the past 15 years. However, upward prevalence trends appear to be persisting in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. Findings highlight the need for ongoing efforts to address the issue of childhood obesity. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Secular dynamics of an exterior test particle: the inverse Kozai and other eccentricity-inclination resonances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinson, Benjamin R.; Chiang, Eugene

2018-03-01

The behaviour of an interior test particle in the secular three-body problem has been studied extensively. A well-known feature is the Lidov-Kozai resonance in which the test particle's argument of periastron librates about ±90° and large oscillations in eccentricity and inclination are possible. Less explored is the inverse problem: the dynamics of an exterior test particle and an interior perturber. We survey numerically the inverse secular problem, expanding the potential to hexadecapolar order and correcting an error in the published expansion. Four secular resonances are uncovered that persist in full N-body treatments (in what follows, ϖ and Ω are the longitudes of periapse and of ascending node, ω is the argument of periapse, and subscripts 1 and 2 refer to the inner perturber and the outer test particle): (i) an orbit-flipping quadrupole resonance requiring a non-zero perturber eccentricity e1, in which Ω2 - ϖ1 librates about ±90°; (ii) a hexadecapolar resonance (the `inverse Kozai' resonance) for perturbers that are circular or nearly so and inclined by I ≃ 63°/117°, in which ω2 librates about ±90° and which can vary the particle eccentricity by Δe2 ≃ 0.2 and lead to orbit crossing; (iii) an octopole `apse-aligned' resonance at I ≃ 46°/107° wherein ϖ2 - ϖ1 librates about 0° and Δe2 grows with e1; and (iv) an octopole resonance at I ≃ 73°/134° wherein ϖ2 + ϖ1 - 2Ω2 librates about 0° and Δe2 can be as large as 0.3 for small but non-zero e1. Qualitatively, the more eccentric the perturber, the more the particle's eccentricity and inclination vary; also, more polar orbits are more chaotic. Our solutions to the inverse problem have potential application to the Kuiper belt and debris discs, circumbinary planets, and hierarchical stellar systems.

Examination of U.S. Puberty Timing Data from 1940 to 1994 for Secular Trends: Panel Findings

EPA Science Inventory

Five articles based on "The Role of Environmental Factors on the Onset and Progression of Puberty" expert panel workshop findings were published as a Supplement to Pediatrics on Feb. 1, 2008. This workshop, sponsored by EPA, NIEHS, and Serono International and held in November o...

Secular Trends and Smoke-Free Policy Development in Rural Kentucky

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fallin, Amanda; Parker, Lindsay; Lindgreen, Janine; Riker, Carol; Kercsmar, Sarah; Hahn, Ellen J.

2011-01-01

Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure causes cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and pulmonary disorders. Smoke-free policies are the most effective way to prevent exposure to SHS. A 5-year community-based randomized control trial (RCT) is in progress to assess factors associated with smoke-free policy development in rural communities. Considering…

Giant desiccation fissures on the Black Rock and Smoke Creek Deserts, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willden, R.; Mabey, D.R.

1961-01-01

Open fissures, from 100 to several hundred feet apart, that have produced polygonal patterns on the Black Rock Desert, Nevada, are believed to be giant desiccation cracks resulting from a secular trend toward aridity in the last few decades. Similar features on the Smoke Creek Desert probably have the same origin.

Semantic Ambiguity & Theological Diversity: A Descriptive Study of the "Integration of Faith and Learning" in Protestant Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cosgrove, Preston B.

2012-01-01

In 1971 ten Christian colleges resisted the ongoing trend of secularization within American higher education through the formation of a Consortium designed promote collaboration among Christian institutions. Since then, the Consortium has transformed into the Council for Christian Colleges & Universities (CCCU), with 116 member institutions…

A Secular Trend in Birth Weight and Delivery Practices in Periurban Vietnam During 2005-2012.

PubMed

Duong, Duc Minh; Nguyen, Anh Duy; Nguyen, Chuong Canh; Le, Vui Thi; Hoang, Son Ngoc; Bui, Ha Thi Thu

2017-07-01

The remarkable increase in Vietnamese economic conditions can increase the birth weight in neonates and better delivery practices among women. The Chi Linh Health and Demographic Surveillance System started in 2004. An open cohort of data consisting of about 57 561 people from 17 993 households has been followed primarily with respect to demography, economy, and education. The aim of this research is to study secular trends in delivery practice and birth weight in the past decade (2005-2012) in Chi Linh. We found a significant change in delivery rates at hospitals and cesarean section rates, but the birth weights over a decade of drastic economic development were stable. Furthermore, the findings show significant associations of birth weight and delivery practices with the child's sex, mother's age, and household income. Our results might be considered as representative for other similar periurban settings in Vietnam. We suggest that appropriate policies should be developed given the reduction in the use of delivery services in commune health centers in urban areas.

The timing of normal puberty and the age limits of sexual precocity: variations around the world, secular trends, and changes after migration.

PubMed

Parent, Anne-Simone; Teilmann, Grete; Juul, Anders; Skakkebaek, Niels E; Toppari, Jorma; Bourguignon, Jean-Pierre

2003-10-01

During the past decade, possible advancement in timing of puberty has been reported in the United States. In addition, early pubertal development and an increased incidence of sexual precocity have been noticed in children, primarily girls, migrating for foreign adoption in several Western European countries. These observations are raising the issues of current differences and secular trends in timing of puberty in relation to ethnic, geographical, and socioeconomic background. None of these factors provide an unequivocal explanation for the earlier onset of puberty seen in the United States. In the formerly deprived migrating children, refeeding and catch-up growth may prime maturation. However, precocious puberty is seen also in some nondeprived migrating children. Attention has been paid to the changing milieu after migration, and recently, the possible role of endocrine- disrupting chemicals from the environment has been considered. These observations urge further study of the onset of puberty as a possible sensitive and early marker of the interactions between environmental conditions and genetic susceptibility that can influence physiological and pathological processes.

Secular trend of serum docosahexaenoic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid, and arachidonic acid concentrations among Japanese-a 4- and 13-year descriptive epidemiologic study.

PubMed

Otsuka, Rei; Kato, Yuki; Imai, Tomoko; Ando, Fujiko; Shimokata, Hiroshi

2015-03-01

Cross-sectional studies have shown age-related increases in blood docosahexaenoic and eicosapentaenoic acid and decreases in arachidonic acid. We describe serum docosahexaenoic, eicosapentaenoic, and arachidonic acid concentrations over 13 years (1997-2012) across four study waves and serum fatty acid composition over 4 years (2006-2012) between two study waves according to age groups by sex in the same subjects. We included 443 men and 435 women aged 40-79 years at baseline. Serum arachidonic acid concentrations increased in all sex and age groups over 13 years, and eicosapentaenoic or docosahexaenoic acid concentrations increased in males and females who were younger and middle-aged at baseline. Only serum arachidonic acid composition increased over 4 years in men and women who were 40-69 years at baseline, even after adjustment for arachidonic acid intake. These findings suggest a secular increase trend in serum arachidonic acid levels over 13 years among randomly selected community-dwelling middle-aged and elderly Japanese. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Analysis on the trend of long-term change of blood pressure in hypertensive patients treated with benazepril].

PubMed

Lu, Jun; Li, Li-Ming; He, Ping-Ping; Cao, Wei-Hua; Zhan, Si-Yan; Hu, Yong-Hua

2004-06-01

To introduce the application of mixed linear model in the analysis of secular trend of blood pressure under antihypertensive treatment. A community-based postmarketing surveillance of benazepril was conducted in 1831 essential hypertensive patients (age range from 35 to 88 years) in Shanghai. Data of blood pressure was analyzed every 3 months with mixed linear model to describe the secular trend of blood pressure and changes of age-specific and gender-specific. The changing trends of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were found to fit the curvilinear models. A piecewise model was fit for pulse pressure (PP), i.e., curvilinear model in the first 9 months and linear model after 9 months of taking medication. Both blood pressure and its velocity gradually slowed down. There were significant variation for the curve parameters of intercept, slope, and acceleration. Blood pressure in patients with higher initial levels was persistently declining in the 3-year-treatment. However blood pressures of patients with relatively low initial levels remained low when dropped down to some degree. Elderly patients showed high SBP but low DBP, so as with higher PP. The velocity and sizes of blood pressure reductions increased with the initial level of blood pressure. Mixed linear model is flexible and robust when applied to the analysis of longitudinal data but with missing values and can also make the maximum use of available information.

Secular Trends in Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity from 2006 to 2009 in Urban Asian Indian Adolescents Aged 14-17 Years

PubMed Central

Gupta, Deepak Kumar; Shah, Priyali; Misra, Anoop; Bharadwaj, Swati; Gulati, Seema; Gupta, Nidhi; Sharma, Rekha; Pandey, Ravindra M.; Goel, Kashish

2011-01-01

The present study examines the secular trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity among urban Asian Indian adolescents in New Delhi (North India). The data were derived from cross-sectional sampling of children, 3493 in year 2006 and 4908 in year 2009, aged 14–17 years studying in privately-funded and government-funded schools. Age, gender and Asian Indian-specific cut offs of body mass index (BMI) were used to define overweight and obesity. The prevalence of obesity increased significantly from 9.8% in 2006 to 11.7% in 2009 (p<0.01), whereas underweight decreased from 11.3% to 3.9% (p<0.001). There was a significantly higher risk of being overweight (OR 1.28; 95% CI, 1.15–1.42) and obese (OR 1.44; 95% CI, 1.24–1.66) in year 2009 than 2006, after adjusting for age, gender and type of school. Males and privately-funded school children had significantly higher increase in prevalence and risk of being overweight and obese over the three years. In conclusion, this study showed an increasing trend in prevalence of overweight and obesity in urban Asian Indian adolescents. More specifically, the study showed the association of this increasing trend of overweight and obesity prevalence with male gender and high socio-economic status, calling for an urgent need for immediate and targeted preventive measures. PMID:21383840

Extending religion-health research to secular minorities: issues and concerns.

PubMed

Hwang, Karen; Hammer, Joseph H; Cragun, Ryan T

2011-09-01

Claims about religion's beneficial effects on physical and psychological health have received substantial attention in popular media, but empirical support for these claims is mixed. Many of these claims are tenuous because they fail to address basic methodological issues relating to construct validity, sampling methods or analytical problems. A more conceptual problem has to do with the near universal lack of atheist control samples. While many studies include samples of individuals classified as "low spirituality" or religious "nones", these groups are heterogeneous and contain only a fraction of members who would be considered truly secular. We illustrate the importance of including an atheist control group whenever possible in the religiosity/spirituality and health research and discuss areas for further investigation.

Experimental Characterization of Secular Frequency Scanning in Ion Trap Mass Spectrometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, Dalton T.; Pulliam, Christopher J.; Wiley, Joshua S.; Duncan, Jason; Cooks, R. Graham

2016-07-01

Secular frequency scanning is implemented and characterized using both a benchtop linear ion trap and a miniature rectilinear ion trap mass spectrometer. Separation of tetraalkylammonium ions and those from a mass calibration mixture and from a pesticide mixture is demonstrated with peak widths approaching unit resolution for optimized conditions using the benchtop ion trap. The effects on the spectra of ion trap operating parameters, including waveform amplitude, scan direction, scan rate, and pressure are explored, and peaks at black holes corresponding to nonlinear (higher-order field) resonance points are investigated. Reverse frequency sweeps (increasing mass) on the Mini 12 are shown to result in significantly higher ion ejection efficiency and superior resolution than forward frequency sweeps that decrement mass. This result is accounted for by the asymmetry in ion energy absorption profiles as a function of AC frequency and the shift in ion secular frequency at higher amplitudes in the trap due to higher order fields. We also found that use of higher AC amplitudes in forward frequency sweeps biases ions toward ejection at points of higher order parametric resonance, despite using only dipolar excitation. Higher AC amplitudes also increase peak width and decrease sensitivity in both forward and reverse frequency sweeps. Higher sensitivity and resolution were obtained at higher trap pressures in the secular frequency scan, in contrast to conventional resonance ejection scans, which showed the opposite trend in resolution on the Mini 12. Mass range is shown to be naturally extended in secular frequency scanning when ejecting ions by sweeping the AC waveform through low frequencies, a method which is similar, but arguably superior, to the more usual method of mass range extension using low q resonance ejection.

Experimental Characterization of Secular Frequency Scanning in Ion Trap Mass Spectrometers.

PubMed

Snyder, Dalton T; Pulliam, Christopher J; Wiley, Joshua S; Duncan, Jason; Cooks, R Graham

2016-07-01

Secular frequency scanning is implemented and characterized using both a benchtop linear ion trap and a miniature rectilinear ion trap mass spectrometer. Separation of tetraalkylammonium ions and those from a mass calibration mixture and from a pesticide mixture is demonstrated with peak widths approaching unit resolution for optimized conditions using the benchtop ion trap. The effects on the spectra of ion trap operating parameters, including waveform amplitude, scan direction, scan rate, and pressure are explored, and peaks at black holes corresponding to nonlinear (higher-order field) resonance points are investigated. Reverse frequency sweeps (increasing mass) on the Mini 12 are shown to result in significantly higher ion ejection efficiency and superior resolution than forward frequency sweeps that decrement mass. This result is accounted for by the asymmetry in ion energy absorption profiles as a function of AC frequency and the shift in ion secular frequency at higher amplitudes in the trap due to higher order fields. We also found that use of higher AC amplitudes in forward frequency sweeps biases ions toward ejection at points of higher order parametric resonance, despite using only dipolar excitation. Higher AC amplitudes also increase peak width and decrease sensitivity in both forward and reverse frequency sweeps. Higher sensitivity and resolution were obtained at higher trap pressures in the secular frequency scan, in contrast to conventional resonance ejection scans, which showed the opposite trend in resolution on the Mini 12. Mass range is shown to be naturally extended in secular frequency scanning when ejecting ions by sweeping the AC waveform through low frequencies, a method which is similar, but arguably superior, to the more usual method of mass range extension using low q resonance ejection. Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

Religion and Education: Comparative and International Perspectives. Oxford Studies in Comparative Education. Oxford Studies in Comparative Education Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sivasubramaniam, Malina, Ed.; Hayhoe, Ruth, Ed.

2018-01-01

Despite the increased trend towards secularization in state schooling, issues of religion and spirituality have remained important. Increased pluralism within societies through expanding migration patterns is changing the religious and cultural contours of many countries in Europe and North America, and is creating a need for a deeper…

The Flynn Effect in Sibships: Investigating the Role of Age Differences between Siblings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sundet, Jon Martin; Eriksen, Willy; Borren, Ingrid; Tambs, Kristian

2010-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between the Flynn effect and the effects of age differences between siblings on the intelligence difference between them. In Norway, the secular trends in intelligence-test score means vary both in magnitude and direction. We identified three periods: one period where the mean intelligence…

An Assessment of Long-Term Changes in Anthropometric Dimensions: Secular Trends of U.S. Army Males

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

17. COSATI CODES 18 SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) FIELD GROUP SUB-GROUP Anthropometry Demography... Elderly Population. Human Bioloxy 60:917-925. Clauser, C, I Tebbetts, B Bradtmiller, J McConville and CC Gordon (1988) Measurer’s Handbook: U.S. Army

The Sources of American Inequality, 1896-1948.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williamson, Jeffrey G.

This paper discusses American long-term experience with changes in the distribution of income since the turn of the century. It supplies quantitative documentation of a pronunced secular swing in inequality. Inequality indicators were on the rise up to 1914, exhibited no trend to 1926 or 1929, and traced out a well known egalitatian leveling up to…

Suicide in Japan: Socioeconomic Effects on Its Secular and Seasonal Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Araki, Shunichi; Murata, Katsuyuki

1987-01-01

Analyzed suicide death rates for 33 years following the end of World War II in Japan. Death rates for men and women decreased during periods of economic prosperity and increased during the years preceding economic depression; and for men, after economic depression. Death by suicide and its seasonal variation are affected by changes in…

Teleconnections in the Presence of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Annular Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerber, Edwin; Baldwin, Mark

2010-05-01

Long model integrations of future and past climates present a problem for defining teleconnection patterns through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or correlation analysis when trends in the underlying climate begin to dominate the covariance structure. Similar issues may soon appear in observations as the record becomes longer, especially if climate trends accelerate. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes provide a prime example, because the poleward shift of the jet streams strongly projects onto these patterns, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate forecasts of the 21st century by chemistry climate models provide a case study. Computation of the annular modes in these long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The new procedure involves two key changes. First, the global mean geopotential height is removed at each time step before computing anomalies. This is particularly important high in the atmosphere, where seasonal variations in geopotential height become significant, and filters out trends due to changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Pattern definition can be very sensitive near the tropopause, as regions of the atmosphere that used to be more of stratospheric character begin to take on tropospheric characteristics as the tropopause rises. The second change is to define anomalies relative to a slowly evolving seasonal climatology, so that the covariance structure reflects internal variability. Once these changes are accounted for, it is found that the zonal mean variability of the atmosphere stays remarkably constant, despite significant changes in the baseline climate forecast for the rest of the century. This stability of the internal variability makes it possible to relate trends in climate to teleconnections.

Steady induction effects in geomagnetism. Part 1A: Steady motional induction of geomagnetic chaos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voorhies, Coerte V.

1992-01-01

Geomagnetic effects of magnetic induction by hypothetically steady fluid motion and steady magnetic flux diffusion near the top of Earth's core are investigated using electromagnetic theory, simple magnetic earth models, and numerical experiments with geomagnetic field models. The problem of estimating a steady fluid velocity field near the top of Earth's core which induces the secular variation indicated by broad-scale models of the observed geomagnetic field is examined and solved. In Part 1, the steady surficial core flow estimation problem is solved in the context of the source-free mantle/frozen-flux core model. In the first paper (IA), the theory underlying such estimates is reviewed and some consequences of various kinematic and dynamic flow hypotheses are derived. For a frozen-flux core, fluid downwelling is required to change the mean square normal magnetic flux density averaged over the core-mantle boundary. For surficially geostrophic flow, downwelling implies poleward flow. The solution of the forward steady motional induction problem at the surface of a frozen-flux core is derived and found to be a fine, easily visualized example of deterministic chaos. Geomagnetic effects of statistically steady core surface flow may well dominate secular variation over several decades. Indeed, effects of persistent, if not steady, surficially geostrophic core flow are described which may help explain certain features of the present broad-scale geomagnetic field and perhaps paleomagnetic secular variation.

Trends in weight, height, BMI and obesity in schoolchildren from Santa Rosa (Argentina), 1990-2005/07.

PubMed

Orden, Alicia B; Bucci, Piero J; Petrone, Selene

2013-07-01

To assess secular changes in physical growth and the current prevalence and trend of overweight/obesity in Argentinian schoolchildren. One thousand and forty-nine schoolchildren aged 6 and 12 years attending schools in 1990 were compared with an age-matched sample of 935 boys and girls collected between 2005-2007. Changes in weight, height and BMI by age between the surveys were analysed using one-way analysis of variance. Overweight and obesity were defined according to IOTF criteria and compared by Chi-squared test. Odds ratios (OR) and intervals of confidence (95% CI) were also calculated. Six and 12 year-old boys and girls were significantly heavier (1.2-3.2 kg) and had higher BMIs (0.7-1.0 kg/m(2)) in 2005-2007 than in 1990. Significant differences in height were seen in 6 year old boys (1.5 cm) and 12 year old girls (1.3 cm). Overweight and obesity increased by 4.4% (OR = 1.4, 1.1-1.8) and 5.9% (OR = 4.3, 2.8-6.5), respectively; obesity being higher in younger children. The disharmonic secular change in weight and height has led to high overweight/obesity. The obesity increase is consistent with global and regional trends, indicating a shift in BMI distribution, especially at the higher centiles.

Secular trends of infectious disease mortality in The Netherlands, 1911-1978: quantitative estimates of changes coinciding with the introduction of antibiotics.

PubMed

Mackenbach, J P; Looman, C W

1988-09-01

Secular trends of mortality from 21 infectious diseases in the Netherlands were studied by inspection of age/sex-standardized mortality curves and by log-linear regression analysis. An attempt was made to obtain quantitative estimates for changes coinciding with the introduction of antibiotics. Two possible types of effect were considered: a sharp reduction of mortality at the moment of the introduction of antibiotics, and a longer lasting (acceleration of) mortality decline after the introduction. Changes resembling the first type of effect were possibly present for many infectious diseases, but were difficult to measure exactly, due to late effects on mortality of World War II. Changes resembling the second type of effect were present in 16 infectious diseases and were sometimes quite large. For example, estimated differences in per cent per annum mortality change were 10% or larger for puerperal fever, scarlet fever, rheumatic fever, erysipelas, otitis media, tuberculosis, and bacillary dysentery. No acceleration of mortality decline after the introduction of antibiotics was present in mortality from 'all other diseases'. Although the exact contribution of antibiotics to the observed changes cannot be inferred from this time trend analysis, the quantitative estimates of the changes show that even a partial contribution would represent a substantial effect of antibiotics on mortality from infectious diseases in the Netherlands.

Twenty-year trends in cardiovascular risk factors in India and influence of educational status.

PubMed

Gupta, Rajeev; Guptha, Soneil; Gupta, V P; Agrawal, Aachu; Gaur, Kiran; Deedwania, Prakash C

2012-12-01

Urban middle-socioeconomic status (SES) subjects have high burden of cardiovascular risk factors in low-income countries. To determine secular trends in risk factors among this population and to correlate risks with educational status we performed epidemiological studies in India. Five cross-sectional studies were performed in middle-SES urban locations in Jaipur, India from years 1992 to 2010. Cluster sampling was performed. Subjects (men, women) aged 20-59 years evaluated were 712 (459, 253) in 1992-94, 558 (286, 272) in 1999-2001, 374 (179, 195) in 2002-03, 887 (414, 473) in 2004-05, and 530 (324, 206) in 2009-10. Data were obtained by history, anthropometry, and fasting blood glucose and lipids estimation. Response rates varied from 55 to 75%. Mean values and risk factor prevalence were determined. Secular trends were identified using quadratic and log-linear regression and chi-squared for trend. Across the studies, there was high prevalence of overweight, hypertension, and lipid abnormalities. Age- and sex-adjusted trends showed significant increases in mean body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides (quadratic and log-linear regression, p < 0.001). Systolic blood pressure (BP) decreased while insignificant changes were observed for waist-hip ratio and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Categorical trends showed increase in overweight and decrease in smoking (p < 0.05); insignificant changes were observed in truncal obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes. Adjustment for educational status attenuated linear trends in BMI and total and LDL cholesterol and accentuated trends in systolic BP, glucose, and HDL cholesterol. There was significant association of an increase in education with decline in smoking and an increase in overweight (two-line regression p < 0.05). In Indian urban middle-SES subjects there is high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Over a 20-year period BMI and overweight increased, smoking and systolic BP decreased, and truncal obesity, hypercholesterolaemia, and diabetes remained stable. Increasing educational status attenuated trends for systolic BP, glucose and HDL cholesterol, and BMI.

Secular Trends in Blood Pressure and Overweight and Obesity in Chinese Boys and Girls Aged 7 to 17 Years From 1995 to 2014.

PubMed

Dong, Yanhui; Ma, Jun; Song, Yi; Ma, Yinghua; Dong, Bin; Zou, Zhiyong; Prochaska, Judith J

2018-06-04

The current study aimed to assess the secular trends in overweight and obesity status and high blood pressure (HBP) in Chinese children and adolescents for 2 decades. Data on 943 128 participants aged 7 to 17 years were obtained from the Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health from 1995 to 2014. The population attributable risk of overweight status for HBP was calculated. The prevalence of overweight increased from 4.3% in 1995 to 18.4% in 2014, whereas HBP prevalence fluctuated in the range of 4.4% to 6.4% during the same time period, the lowest in 2005. Within each survey year, blood pressure levels and HBP prevalence increased with higher body mass index. Notably, the population attributable risk of HBP because of being overweight steadily increased from 6.3% in 1995 to 19.2% in 2014. The same trends of linear growth for obesity, fluctuating blood pressure, and its sustained increasing population attributable risk for overweight also occurred among the domestic 29 provinces. Despite dramatic increases in overweight prevalence among Chinese children from 1995 to 2014, the HBP prevalence remained relatively stable, suggesting that other independent factors are affecting HBP trends to a greater extent. Yet, over time, the magnitude of the impact of being overweight or obese on HBP increased sharply, predicting looming heavy burden of HBP. Reductions in overweight status may aid in preventing HBP so as to prevent coronary risk in adulthood. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Secular trends in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican school-aged children and adolescents.

PubMed

dos Santos, Fernanda Karina; Maia, José A R; Gomes, Thayse Natacha Q F; Daca, Timóteo; Madeira, Aspacia; Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Prista, António

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine secular changes in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican children and adolescents between 1992, 1999 and 2012. 3374 subjects (1600 boys, 1774 girls), distributed across the three time points (523 subjects in 1992; 1565 in 1999; and 1286 in 2012), were studied. Height and weight were measured, BMI was computed, and WHO cut-points were used to define nutritional status. ANCOVA models were used to compare height, weight and BMI across study years; chi-square was used to determine differences in the nutritional status prevalence across the years. Significant differences for boys were found for height and weight (p<0.05) across the three time points, where those from 2012 were the heaviest, but those in 1999 were the tallest, and for BMI the highest value was observed in 2012 (1992<2012, 1999<2012). Among girls, those from 1999 were the tallest (1992<1999, 1999>2012), and those from 2012 had the highest BMI (1999<2012). In general, similar patterns were observed when mean values were analyzed by age. A positive trend was observed for overweight and obesity prevalences, whereas a negative trend emerged for wasting, stunting-wasting (in boys), and normal-weight (in girls); no clear trend was evident for stunting. Significant positive changes in growth and nutritional status were observed among Mozambican youth from 1992 to 2012, which are associated with economic, social and cultural transitional processes, expressing a dual burden in this population, with reduction in malnourished youth in association with an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity.

Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charba, Jerome P.; Klein, William H.

1980-12-01

All known long-term records of forecasting performance for different types of precipitation forecasts in the National Weather Service were examined for relative skill and secular trends in skill. The largest upward trends were achieved by local probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts for the periods 24-36 h and 36-48 h after 0000 and 1200 GMT. Over the last 13 years, the skill of these forecasts has improved at an average rate of 7.2% per 10-year interval. Over the same period, improvement has been smaller in local PoP skill in the 12-24 h range (2.0% per 10 years) and in the accuracy of "Yea/No" forecasts of measurable precipitation. The overall trend in accuracy of centralized quantitative precipitation forecasts of 0.5 in and 1.0 in has been slightly upward at the 0-24 h range and strongly upward at the 24-48 h range. Most of the improvement in these forecasts has been achieved from the early 1970s to the present. Strong upward accuracy trends in all types of precipitation forecasts within the past eight years are attributed primarily to improvements in numerical and statistical centralized guidance forecasts.The skill and accuracy of both measurable and quantitative precipitation forecasts is 35-55% greater during the cool season than during the warm season. Also, the secular rate of improvement of the cool season precipitation forecasts is 50-110% greater than that of the warm season. This seasonal difference in performance reflects the relative difficulty of forecasting predominantly stratiform precipitation of the cool season and convective precipitation of the warm season.

Recent blood pressure trends in adolescents from China, Korea, Seychelles and the United States of America, 1997-2012.

PubMed

Xi, Bo; Bovet, Pascal; Hong, Young M; Zong, Xin'nan; Chiolero, Arnaud; Kim, Hae S; Zhang, Tao; Zhao, Min

2016-10-01

Although the prevalence of obesity is increasing worldwide, secular trends in elevated blood pressure (BP) differ across populations. We aimed to compare recent BP and obesity trends in adolescents aged 10-19 years in China, Korea, Seychelles and the United States of America. Data in adolescents aged 10-19 years came from China (1997-2011, n = 8025), Korea (1998-2012, n = 10 119), Seychelles (1998-2012, n = 27 569) and the United States of America (1999-2012, n = 14 580). Elevated BP was defined as SBP or DBP equal to or above the referent sex, age and height-specific 95th percentile of the US Fourth Report. Overweight and obesity were defined using criteria of the International Obesity Task Force. Between 1997-2000 and 2011-2012, the prevalence of elevated BP decreased in Korea and did not change substantially in China and in the United States of America. The prevalence of elevated BP increased in Seychelles. In 2011-2012, the prevalence of elevated BP was 1.7% in the United States of America, 3.8% in China, 3.7% in Korea and 14.3% in Seychelles. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased over time and reached in 2011-2012 41.2% in the United States of America, 18.6% in China, 25.2% in Korea and 27.4% in Seychelles. Elevated BP was strongly associated with obesity in all countries. Although the prevalence of obesity increased markedly in the four countries, secular BP trends in adolescents differed in countries of different regions.

Secular trends in overweight and obesity among Icelandic adolescents: do parental education levels and family structure play a part?

PubMed

Eidsdóttir, Sigridur Þ; Kristjánsson, Álfgeir l; Sigfúsdóttir, Inga D; Garber, Carol E; Allegrante, John P

2013-06-01

To investigate whether the secular trend in the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity among 16- to 20-year-old adolescents in Iceland varied by levels of parental education and family structure. Odds ratios were calculated from repeated population-based, cross-sectional surveys comprising cohorts of 16- to 20-year-old Icelandic adolescents attending junior colleges in 1992 (n=4,922), 2004 (n=11,031), 2007 (n=11,229), and 2010 (n=11,388). Body mass index (BMI) was calculated from self-reported weight and height and categorised as normal weight or overweight and obese, and examined in relation to parental education level and family structure. The odds of being overweight increased by 2.62 and 1.71 for boys and girls respectively over each of the survey time points. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased across all three subgroups (low, medium, and high) of parental education level. The probability of overweight across all years were consistently the highest for youths with parents in the low-education category followed by middle-educated and high-educated parental background (p<0.05). The gap in overweight and obesity trends between respondents' parental education backgrounds increased over time and was generally explained more by the fathers' education than by the mothers' education (p<0.05). Family structure was not associated with the prevalence of overweight and obesity in our data. Differences in parental levels of education are associated with accelerating trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity among 16- to 20-year-old adolescents in Iceland.

The relation between sexual behavior and religiosity subtypes: a test of the secularization hypothesis.

PubMed

Farmer, Melissa A; Trapnell, Paul D; Meston, Cindy M

2009-10-01

Previous literature on religion and sexual behavior has focused on narrow definitions of religiosity, including religious affiliation, religious participation, or forms of religiousness (e.g., intrinsic religiosity). Trends toward more permissive premarital sexual activity in the North American Christian-Judeo religion support the secularization hypothesis of religion, which posits an increasing gap between religious doctrine and behavior. However, the recent rise of fundamentalist and new age religious movements calls for a reexamination of the current link between religion and sexual behavior. The use of dual definitions of religiosity, including religious affiliation and dimensional subtypes, may further characterize this link. The present cross-sectional study evaluated patterns of sexual behavior in a young adult sample (N = 1302, M age = 18.77 years) in the context of the secularization hypothesis using religious affiliation and a liberal-conservative continuum of religious subtypes: paranormal belief, spirituality, intrinsic religiosity, and fundamentalism. Results indicated few affiliation differences in sexual behavior in men or women. Sexual behaviors were statistically predicted by spirituality, fundamentalism, and paranormal belief, and the endorsement of fundamentalism in particular was correlated with lower levels of female sexual behavior. The secularization hypothesis was supported by consistent levels of sexual activity across affiliations and is contradicted by the differential impact of religiosity subtypes on sexual behavior. Findings suggested that the use of religious subtypes to evaluate religious differences, rather than solely affiliation, may yield useful insights into the link between religion and sexual behavior.

Assessment of pubertal development in Egyptian girls.

PubMed

Hosny, Laila A; El-Ruby, Mona O; Zaki, Moushira E; Aglan, Mona S; Zaki, Maha S; El Gammal, Mona A; Mazen, Inas M

2005-06-01

Puberty is a significant event of human growth and maturation associated with marked physiological and psychological changes. The aim of this study was to assess normal pubertal development in Egyptian girls to define normal, precocious and delayed puberty. The present study included a cross-sectional sample of 1,550 normal Egyptian girls of high and middle socioeconomic class living in Cairo. Their ages ranged from 6.5 to 18.5 years. Pubertal assessment was made according to Tanner staging. The mean menarcheal age (MMA) was estimated using probit analysis. Weight and height were measured and body mass index (BMI) was calculated. The mean age at breast bud stage (B2) was 10.71+/-1.6, pubic hair stage (PH2) was 10.46+/-1.36, while axillary hair stage (A2) was 11.65+/-1.62 and MMA was 12.44 years. The mean age at attainment of puberty was compared with those of other Egyptian studies and other populations. Girls of the present study started pubertal development and achieved menarche earlier than those of previous Egyptian studies confirming a secular trend. Differences between the present study and other worldwide studies can be attributed to various genetic, racial, geographical, nutritional, and secular trend factors.

Sea level variations during rapid changing Arctic Ocean from tide gauge and satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Ling; Xu, Daohuan

2016-04-01

Sea level variations can introduce the useful information under the circumstance of the rapid changing Arctic. Based on tide gauge records and the satellite altimetry data in the Arctic Ocean, the sea level variations in the 20th century are analyzed with the stochastic dynamic method. The average secular trend of the sea level record is about 1 mm/yr, which is smaller than the global mean cited by the IPCC climate assessment report. The secular trend in the coastal region differs from that in the deep water. After the mid-1970s, a weak acceleration of sea level rise is found along the coasts of the Siberian and Aleutian Islands. Analysis of synchronous TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data indicates that the amplitude of the seasonal variation is less than that of the inter-annual variation, whose periods vary from 4.7 to 6 years. This relationship is different from that in the mid-latitudes. The climate indices are the pre-cursors of the sea level variations on multi-temporal scales. The model results show that while steric effects contribute significantly to the seasonal variation, the influence of atmospheric wind forcing is an important factor of sea level during ice free region.

Long-Term Gravity Changes Caused By Crustal Movement in Tibet Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, J.

2014-12-01

The uplift process of the Tibetan Plateau and its mechanism has always been the research hot spot for geoscientists. In this paper, 11 years of time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) newest Release 05 have been used to get the secular trends of gravity anomaly in CHINA and adjacent area by least square method. A reduction of hydrological signals from the detected integral secular trends using global hydrological models (Global Land Data Assimilation System, GLDAS and Climate Prediction Center, CPC) is attempted. The glacier model provided by Paulson is used to reduce the GIA(Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) effect. In addition, the scaling factor method is used to weaken the GRACE post-process errors. It turns out that a remarkable positive signal in the inner Tibetan Plateau, which is explained by a forward modeling with 3D rectangular prism based on the hypothesis of subduction of Indian plate beneath Eurasian plate. Bangong-Nujiang suture zone is used to divide the Tibetan Plateau into southern and northern parts, then we get the gravity anomaly rate of northern part +0.27, which is consistent with the GRACE result 0.35±0.13.

Decadal Variation's Offset of Global Warming in Recent Tropical Pacific Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, S. R.; Yeh, S. W.; Kim, K. Y.; Kim, W.

2015-12-01

Despite the increasing greenhouse gas concentration, there is no significant warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical eastern Pacific since about 2000. This counterintuitive observation has generated substantial interest in the role of low-frequency variation over the Pacific Ocean such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Therefore, it is necessary to appropriately separate low-frequency variability and global warming from SST records. Here we present three primary modes of global SST as a secular warming trend, a low-frequency variability, and a biennial oscillation through the use of novel statistical method. By analyzing temporal behavior of the three-mode, it is found that the opposite contributions of secular warming trend and cold phase of low-frequency variability since 1999 account for the warming hiatus in the tropical eastern Pacific. This result implies that the low-frequency variability modulates the manifestation of global warming signal in the tropical Pacific SST. Furthermore, if the low-frequency variability turns to a positive phase, warming in the tropical eastern Pacific will be amplified and also strong El Niño events will occur more frequently in the near future.

Sleep behavior and unemployment conditions.

PubMed

Antillón, Marina; Lauderdale, Diane S; Mullahy, John

2014-07-01

Recent research has reported that habitually short sleep duration is a risk factor for declining health, including increased risk of obesity, diabetes and coronary heart disease. In this study we investigate whether macroeconomic conditions are associated with variation in mean sleep time in the United States, and if so, whether the effect is procyclical or countercyclical. We merge state unemployment rates from 2003 through 2012 with the American Time Use Survey, a nationally representative sample of adults with 24h time diaries. We find that higher aggregate unemployment is associated with longer mean sleep duration, with each additional point of state unemployment associated with an additional average 0.83 min of sleep (p<0.001), after adjusting for a secular trend of increasing sleep over the time period. Despite a national poll in 2009 that found one-third of Americans reporting losing sleep over the economy, we do not find that higher state unemployment is associated with more sleeplessness. Instead, we find that higher state unemployment is associated with less frequent time use described as "sleeplessness" (marginal effect=0.05 at 4% unemployment and 0.034 at 14% unemployment, p<0.001), after controlling for a secular trend. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A New Approach to Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Using Partial Least Squares Regression: The Trend in Blood Pressure in the Glasgow Alumni Cohort

PubMed Central

Tu, Yu-Kang; Davey Smith, George; Gilthorpe, Mark S.

2011-01-01

Due to a problem of identification, how to estimate the distinct effects of age, time period and cohort has been a controversial issue in the analysis of trends in health outcomes in epidemiology. In this study, we propose a novel approach, partial least squares (PLS) analysis, to separate the effects of age, period, and cohort. Our example for illustration is taken from the Glasgow Alumni cohort. A total of 15,322 students (11,755 men and 3,567 women) received medical screening at the Glasgow University between 1948 and 1968. The aim is to investigate the secular trends in blood pressure over 1925 and 1950 while taking into account the year of examination and age at examination. We excluded students born before 1925 or aged over 25 years at examination and those with missing values in confounders from the analyses, resulting in 12,546 and 12,516 students for analysis of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respectively. PLS analysis shows that both systolic and diastolic blood pressure increased with students' age, and students born later had on average lower blood pressure (SBP: −0.17 mmHg/per year [95% confidence intervals: −0.19 to −0.15] for men and −0.25 [−0.28 to −0.22] for women; DBP: −0.14 [−0.15 to −0.13] for men; −0.09 [−0.11 to −0.07] for women). PLS also shows a decreasing trend in blood pressure over the examination period. As identification is not a problem for PLS, it provides a flexible modelling strategy for age-period-cohort analysis. More emphasis is then required to clarify the substantive and conceptual issues surrounding the definitions and interpretations of age, period and cohort effects. PMID:21556329

Secular changes in body dimensions and sexual maturation in children of Arkhangelsk city.

PubMed

Godina, Elena Z; Khomyakova, Irina A; Zadorozhnaya, Ludmila V

2016-01-01

The aim of the present study was to analyze secular changes in body measurements in children of the Arkhangelsk city from 1988 to 2010. A large number of anthropometric measurements were taken on each individual including height, weight, arm, leg and trunk lengths (estimated), body diameters and circumferences, skinfold thickness. Stages of secondary sex characteristics were also evaluated; data on menarcheal age were collected by status-quo method. It was shown that main differences in stature occurred at puberty while in elder children (16-17-year-olds) no statistically significant differences were found. The same pattern was typical for weight and BMI. Chest circumference significantly increased, particularly in girls. For modern children, changes in body proportions due to a bigger trunk length were typical. There were also significant differences in the distribution of subcutaneous fat layer: in modern children bigger fat accumulation was present on the trunk, particularly in abdomen area, vs. fat layer on the extremities. Process of sexual maturation according to mean ages of development of secondary sex characteristics occurred earlier in modern adolescents, which is more expressed in girls. The results can be interpreted in terms of ongoing secular trend.

[The secular trend in body height and weight in the adult population in the Czech republic].

PubMed

Kopecký, Miroslav; Kikalová, Kateřina; Charamza, Jiří

Secular changes in anthropometric parameters reflect the effect of socio-economic conditions in interaction with other factors on individuals in the course of 100-200 years. The main aim of the research was to determine the average body height and weight for the current adult population of men 19 to 94 years old and women 19 to 86 years old in the Czech Republic, and to compare the average values ​​of body height and weight of the monitored group with the reference values ​​for the adult population observed in our country from 1895 to 2001.Body height and weight were measured with standard anthropometry in 973 men aged 19-94 years and 2,606 women aged 19-86 years. The research was carried out from 2013 to 2015. Statistical tests: t-test, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The average body weight and height of the current adult male is 178.58 cm and 80.86 kg, and of adult female 165.99 cm and 65.67 kg. When compared to men, women show significantly lower average height by 12.59 cm and lower weight by 15.19 kg. The results show that men today are about 10.61 cm higher and weigh 9.01 kilograms more than men in 1895. Todays women are about 9.43 centimeters taller, but weigh 0,58 kg less than women of the same age in 1895.Comparison of results from 1895 to 2015 shows that at present there is likely stagnation or decline in the positive secular trend in body height among men and women. The weight of men is increasing while there is stagnation in the body weight of women.

Prevalence and trends of metabolic syndrome among adults in the asia-pacific region: a systematic review.

PubMed

Ranasinghe, P; Mathangasinghe, Y; Jayawardena, R; Hills, A P; Misra, A

2017-01-21

The Asia-Pacific region is home to nearly half of the world's population. The region has seen a recent rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity, type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The present systematic review summarizes the recent prevalence and trends of Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) among adults in countries of the Asia-Pacific Region. Data on MetS in Asia-Pacific countries were obtained using a stepwise process by searching the online Medline database using MeSH terms 'Metabolic Syndrome X' and 'Epidemiology/EP'. For the purpose of describing prevalence data for the individual countries, studies that were most recent, nationally representative or with the largest sample size were included. When evaluating secular trends in prevalence in a country we only considered studies that evaluated the temporal change in prevalence between similar populations, prospective studies based on the same population or National surveys conducted during different time periods. This literature search yielded a total of 757 articles, and five additional article were identified by screening of reference lists. From this total, 18 studies were eligible to be included in the final analysis. Of the 51 Asia-Pacific countries (WHO) we only located data for 15. There was wide between country variation in prevalence of MetS. A national survey from Philippines conducted in 2003 revealed the lowest reported prevalence of 11.9% according to NCEP ATP III criteria. In contrast, the highest recorded prevalence in the region (49.0%) came from a study conducted in urban Pakistan (Karachchi, 2004). Most studies reported a higher prevalence of MetS in females and urban residents. Data on secular trends were available for China, South Korea and Taiwan. An increase in the prevalence of MetS was observed in all three countries. Despite differences in methodology, diagnostic criteria and age of subjects studied, the Asia-Pacific region is facing a significant epidemic of MetS. In most countries nearly 1/5th of the adult population or more were affected by MetS with a secular increase in prevalence. Strategies aimed at primary prevention are required to ameliorate a further increase in the epidemic and for the reduction of the morbidity and mortality associated with MetS.

Divergent oestrogen receptor-specific breast cancer trends in Ireland (2004-2013): Amassing data from independent Western populations provide etiologic clues.

PubMed

Mullooly, Maeve; Murphy, Jeanne; Gierach, Gretchen L; Walsh, Paul M; Deady, Sandra; Barron, Thomas I; Sherman, Mark E; Rosenberg, Philip S; Anderson, William F

2017-11-01

The aetiology and clinical behaviour of breast cancers vary by oestrogen receptor (ER) expression, HER2 expression and over time. Data from the United States and Denmark show rising incidence rates for ER+ and falling incidence rates for ER- breast cancers. Given that Ireland is a somewhat similar Western population but with distinctive risk exposures (especially for lactation), we analysed breast cancer trends by ER status; and for the first time, by the joint expression of ER±/HER2±. We assessed invasive breast cancers (n = 24,845; 2004-2013) within the population-based National Cancer Registry of Ireland. The population at risk was obtained from the Irish Central Statistics Office (n = 10,401,986). After accounting for missing ER and HER2 data, we assessed receptor-specific secular trends in age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Age-period-cohort models were also fitted to further characterise trends accounting for age, calendar-period and birth-cohort interactions. ASRs increased for ER+ (EAPC: 2.2% per year [95% CI: 0.97, 3.45%/year]) and decreased for ER- cancers (EAPC: -3.43% per year [95% CI: -5.05, -1.78%/year]), as well as for specific age groups at diagnosis (<30-49, 50-64 and ≥65 years). ER+/HER2- cancers rose, ER+/HER2+ cancers were statistically flat and ER-/HER± cancers declined. Secular trends for ER± cancers in Ireland were like those previously observed. Stratification by HER2± expression did not substantively alter ER± trends. The divergence of ER± incidence rates among independent Western populations likely reflects calendar-period and/or risk factor changes with differential effects for ER+ and ER- breast cancers. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Why are earthquakes nudging the pole towards 140°E?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, Giorgio

Earthquakes have collectively the tendency to displace the pole of rotation of the earth towards a preferred direction (∼140°E). This trend, which is still unexplained on quantitative grounds, has been revealed by computations of earthquake-induced inertia variations on both a secular and a decade time-scale. Purpose of this letter is to show that the above trend results from the combined effects of the geographical distribution of hypocenters and of the prevailing dip-slip nature of large earthquakes in this century. Our findings are based on the static dislocation theory and on simple geometrical arguments.

New evidence of a fast secular variation of the geomagnetic field 1000 BCE: archaeomagnetic study of Bavarian potteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hervé, G.; Gilder, S.; Fassbinder, J.; Metzler-Nebelsick, C.; Schnepp, E.; Geisweid, L.; Putz, A.; Reuss, S.; Riedel, G.; Westhausen, I.; Wittenborn, F.

2016-12-01

This study presents new archaeointensity results obtained on 350 pottery sherds from 45 graves and pits from 12 sites around Munich (Germany). The features are dated between 1400 and 400 BCE by ceramic and metallic artifacts, radiocarbon and dendrochronology. We collected only red- or partly red-colored sherds in order to minimize mineralogical alteration during laboratory experiments. Rock magnetism analyses show that the remanent magnetization is mainly carried by titanomagnetite. Archaeointensities were determined using the Thellier-Thellier protocol with corrections of TRM anisotropy and cooling rate on one to three specimens per sherd. The experiments were completed using Triaxe and multispecimen (MSP-DSC) methods. Around 60 per cent of the sherds provide reliable results, allowing the computation of 35 mean archaeointensity values. This quadruples the number of previously published data in Western Europe. The secular variation of the geomagnetic field strength is low from 1400 to 1200 BCE with intensities close to 50 µT then the intensity increased to 70 µT around 1000-900 BCE. After a minimum 50 µT near 750 BCE, the intensity increased again to 90 µT at 650 BCE. This high secular variation rate (0.4 µT/year) is especially apparent in the sherds from a fountain dated between 750 and 650 BCE. Next, the intensity remained high until 400 BCE before rapidly decreasing to 200 BCE. As the sharp change in geomagnetic direction around 800 BCE is not contemporaneous with an intensity high, this period is probably not characterized by an archaeomagnetic jerk. The trend of secular variation with two intensity maxima is similar to the one observed in the Near East. The Virtual Axial Dipole Moments of the two regions are approximately the same after 700 BCE, but before they are systematically 1-2 × 1022 Am2 higher in the Near East. This difference may be a further proof of a geomagnetic field anomaly in this area 1000 BCE, yet there is no evidence for a geomagnetic spike in Western Europe. Finally, the fast rate of secular variation will provide an improved dating tool for archaeologists together with the available directional secular variation curves.

Changes in Word Usage Frequency May Hamper Intergenerational Comparisons of Vocabulary Skills: An Ngram Analysis of Wordsum, WAIS, and WISC Test Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roivainen, Eka

2014-01-01

Research on secular trends in mean intelligence test scores shows smaller gains in vocabulary skills than in nonverbal reasoning. One possible explanation is that vocabulary test items become outdated faster compared to nonverbal tasks. The history of the usage frequency of the words on five popular vocabulary tests, the GSS Wordsum, Wechsler…

A Descriptive Epidemiology of Screen-Based Media Use in Youth: A Review and Critique

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marshall, Simon J.; Gorely, Trish; Biddle, Stuart J. H.

2006-01-01

The purpose of this systematic review was to (i) estimate the prevalence and dose of television (TV) viewing, video game playing and computer use, and (ii) assess age-related and (iii) secular trends in TV viewing among youth ([less than or equal] 18 yr). Ninety studies published in English language journals between 1949 and 2004 were included,…

Wesleyan Perfectionism in Revivals of the 19th and 20th Centuries at Wheaton College and Its Impact on Institutional Identity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bissett, Nina K.

2009-01-01

By the end of the 20th century, a modern-day clarion call echoed throughout the Christian collegiate community for religious institutions to divert the trend of secularization and to recover their Christian identity. This study, rather than addressing recovery, explores the distinctive, enduring elements of Wheaton College, a midwestern Christian…

Long-term secular trend of skeletal maturation of Taiwanese children between agricultural (1960s) and contemporary (after 2000s) generations using the Tanner-Whitehouse 3 (TW3) method.

PubMed

Hsieh, Chi-Wen; Liu, Tzu-Chiang; Jong, Tai-Lang; Tiu, Chui-Mei

2013-01-01

The Tanner-Whitehouse (TW) method is one of the well-known techniques in determining the bone age. According to the objectivity of TW3, the secular trend was investigated to discover whether the skeletal maturation of Taiwanese children between two generations was different. The large-scale database of Taiwan was collected. The first group, called mid-1960s, included 265 boys and 295 girls in the agricultural generation (between 1966 and 1967). The second group, called mid-2000s, includes 114 boys and 616 girls in the contemporary generation (after 2000s). The bone age was determined by three radiologists using the carpals-only system of the TW3 method and by two physicians using the Greulich and Pyle method. A comparison of the means (independent-samples t-test) was applied by examining the difference of the children's skeletal maturation between the two generations in the same chronological age. The significant difference was considered while the p-value was 0.05 or less (95% confidence interval). A significant difference of the mean bone age (by, on average, three radiologists using the TW3 method) between the mid-1960s and mid-2000s in the same gender and chronological age was presented by the independent-samples t-test (p<0.001 with 95% confidence interval), and the bone age, determined by the TW3 method, of the mid-2000s group was higher than that of the mid-1960s group. This scenario corresponded with the children's bone age determined by pediatricians. Besides, it deserved to notice that the bone age of boys in the mid-2000s was larger than that of the girls in the mid-1960s. Furthermore, by comparing the environmental condition, we suspect that the difference of bone age of children between the two generations was attributed to the discrepancy in nutrition and socioeconomic variation during the four decades in Taiwan. The study presents that the secular trend of skeletal maturation of children in the mid-2000s is faster than that in the mid-1960s.

Streamflow trends in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, H.F.; Slack, J.R.

1999-01-01

Secular trends in streamflow are evaluated for 395 climate-sensitive streamgaging stations in the conterminous United States using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Trends are calculated for selected quantiles of discharge, from the 0th to the 100th percentile, to evaluate differences between low-, medium-, and high-flow regimes during the twentieth century. Two general patterns emerge; trends are most prevalent in the annual minimum (Q0) to median (Q50) flow categories and least prevalent in the annual maximum (Q100) category; and, at all but the highest quantiles, streamflow has increased across broad sections of the United States. Decreases appear only in parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. Systematic patterns are less apparent in the Q100 flow. Hydrologically, these results indicate that the conterminous U.S. is getting wetter, but less extreme.

RESONANT POST-NEWTONIAN ECCENTRICITY EXCITATION IN HIERARCHICAL THREE-BODY SYSTEMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naoz, Smadar; Kocsis, Bence; Loeb, Abraham

2013-08-20

We study the secular, hierarchical three-body problem to first-order in a post-Newtonian expansion of general relativity (GR). We expand the first-order post-Newtonian Hamiltonian to leading-order in the ratio of the semi-major axis of the two orbits. In addition to the well-known terms that correspond to the GR precession of the inner and outer orbits, we find a new secular post-Newtonian interaction term that can affect the long-term evolution of the triple. We explore the parameter space for highly inclined and eccentric systems, where the Kozai-Lidov mechanism can produce large-amplitude oscillations in the eccentricities. The standard lore, i.e., that GR effectsmore » suppress eccentricity, is only consistent with the parts of phase space where the GR timescales are several orders of magnitude shorter than the secular Newtonian one. In other parts of phase space, however, post-Newtonian corrections combined with the three-body ones can excite eccentricities. In particular, for systems where the GR timescale is comparable to the secular Newtonian timescales, the three-body interactions give rise to a resonant-like eccentricity excitation. Furthermore, for triples with a comparable-mass inner binary, where the eccentric Kozai-Lidov mechanism is suppressed, post-Newtonian corrections can further increase the eccentricity and lead to orbital flips even when the timescale of the former is much longer than the timescale of the secular Kozai-Lidov quadrupole perturbations.« less

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Berthelot, Geoffroy; Marck, Adrien; Noirez, Philippe; Latouche, Aurélien; Toussaint, Jean-François

2015-01-01

Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer—Olympians and supercentenarians—under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic “probabilistic barrier” limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic “barrier” forecast. PMID:25143003

Gravity increase before the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shi; Liu, Mian; Xing, Lelin; Xu, Weimin; Wang, Wuxing; Zhu, Yiqing; Li, Hui

2016-01-01

The 25 April 2015 Nepal earthquake (Mw 7.8) ruptured a segment of the Himalayan front fault zone. Four absolute gravimetric stations in southern Tibet, surveyed from 2010/2011 to 2013 and corrected for secular variations, recorded up to 22.40 ± 1.11 μGal/yr of gravity increase during this period. The gravity increase is distinct from the long-wavelength secular trends of gravity decrease over the Tibetan Plateau and may be related to interseismic mass change around the locked plate interface under the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau. We modeled the source region as a disk of 580 km in diameter, which is consistent with the notion that much of the southern Tibetan crust is involved in storing strain energy that drives the Himalayan earthquakes. If validated in other regions, high-precision ground measurements of absolute gravity may provide a useful method for monitoring mass changes in the source regions of potential large earthquakes.

Labor markets and employment insecurity: impacts of globalization on service and healthcare-sector workforces.

PubMed

Ostry, Aleck S; Spiegel, Jerry M

2004-01-01

Global changes in the economies of most developed nations have impacted the way healthcare is organized, even within largely public systems, and the working conditions of healthcare workers. Since the acceleration of globalization in the 1970s, service-sector workers in developed nations have faced high unemployment, increased skill requirements for most jobs, and a rise in non-traditional work arrangements. These secular shifts in service-sector labor markets have occurred against the background of an erosion of the welfare state and growing income inequality. As well, many healthcare systems, including Canada's, were severely downsized and restructured in the 1990s, exacerbating the underlying negative secular trends in the service sector, and worsening the working conditions for many healthcare workers. Globalization has altered the labor market and shifted working conditions in ways that have been unfavorable to many healthcare workers.

Bioethics: secular philosophy, Jewish law and modern medicine.

PubMed

Steinberg, A

1989-07-01

The recent unprecedented expansion of scientific knowledge and the greater awareness and involvement of the public in medical matters, as well as additional causes described here, have impelled the development of a new form of bioethics over the past three decades. Jewish law and philosophy have always dealt with medical issues. In recent years, however, a voluminous body of literature devoted to Jewish medical ethics has developed. It covers all relevant issues and offers Jewish solutions to many complex problems arising from the recent scientific breakthroughs. This article analyzes the differences between Jewish and secular philosophies regarding fundamental moral theories relevant to modern medical ethics.

Trends in Job Instability and Wages for Young Adult Men. IEE Working Paper No. 8.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernhardt, Annette; Morris, Martina; Handcock, Mark; Scott, Marc

To determine whether there has been a secular rise in job instability among young adults over the past 3 decades, a study compared two National Longitudinal Survey cohorts of young white men. The first cohort entered the labor market in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the second during the late 1970s and early 1980s. The study examined…

Importance of selecting archaeomagnetic data for geomagnetic modelling: example of the new Western Europe directional and intensity secular variation curves from 1500 BC to 200 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herve, Gwenael; Chauvin, Annick; Lanos, Philippe

2014-05-01

At the regional scale, the dispersion between archaeomagnetic data and especially archaeointensities suggests that some of them may be biased. As a consequence, it appears necessary to perform a selection of available data before to compute mean regional secular variation curves or geomagnetic models. However the definition of suitable selection criteria is not obvious and we need to know how to manage "old" data acquired during the 60-70s. The Western Europe directional and intensity data set from 1500 BC to 200 AD allows to discuss these issues. It has recently been enhanced by 39 new archaeodirections and 23 new archaeointensities (Hervé et al., 2013a and 2013b data sets and 5 unpublished data). First, the whole Western Europe data set was selected but the strong dispersion restricted the accuracy and the reliability of the new Western Europe secular variation curves at Paris. The causes of the dispersion appear different between archaeodirections and archaeointensities. In the directional data set, the main problem comes from some age errors in the oldest published data. Since their publication their archaeological dating may have changed of 50 years or more. For intensity data that were acquired much more recently, the dispersion mainly results from the use of unreliable archaeointensity protocols. We propose a weighting approach based on the number of specimens and the use of pTRM-checks, anisotropy and cooling rate corrections. Only 63% of available archaeodirections and 32% of archaeointensities were used to build the new Western Europe secular variation curves from 1500 BC to 200 AD. These curves reveal that selecting the reference data avoids wrong estimations of the shape of the secular variation curves, the secular variation rate, the dating of archaeomagnetic jerks... Finally, it is worth pointing out that current geomagnetic global models take into account almost all the data that we decided to reject. It could partly explain why their predictions at Paris do not fit our local secular variation curves. Hervé, G., Chauvin, A. & Lanos, P., 2013a. Geomagnetic field variations in Western Europe from 1500BC to 200AD. Part I : Directional secular variation curve, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 218, 1-13. Hervé, G., Chauvin, A. & Lanos, P., 2013b. Geomagnetic field variations in Western Europe from 1500BC to 200AD. Part II : New intensity secular variation curve, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 218, 51-65.

Secular trend of the leading causes of death in China from 2003 to 2013.

PubMed

Ren, Yongcheng; Zhang, Ming; Luo, Xinping; Zhao, Jingzhi; Yin, Lei; Pang, Chao; Feng, Tianping; Wang, Shu; Wang, Bingyuan; Zhang, Hongyan; Yang, Xiangyu; Hu, Dongsheng

2017-06-01

To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and secular trends of the leading causes of death in China. Data on the leading causes of death was collected from the Statistical Yearbook of China. Data for 11 years, from 2003 to 2013, was analyzed by regression analysis and chi-square test. The top 3 causes of death from 2009 to 2013 were cancer, cerebrovascular disease, and cardiopathy, with the role of cardiopathy increasing over time (P<0.01). The proportion of deaths related to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in urban and rural areas increased to 41.9% and 44.8%, respectively, in 2013, and was significantly higher than that for cancer, 25.5% and 22.4% (both P<0.01). Injury and poisoning in urban or rural areas represented the fifth leading cause of death. In 2006, endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases were the sixth main cause of death, with 3.3% in urban areas. The role of genito-urinary, respiratory, and digestive system diseases in urban areas and genito-urinary system diseases in rural areas decreased during this period (all P<0.05). Cancer, cerebrovascular disease, and cardiopathy accounted for more than 67% of all deaths from 2007 to 2013 in China, and significantly increased in proportion from 2003 to 2013.

Geomagnetic field declination: from decadal to centennial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrica, Venera; Demetrescu, Crisan; Mandea, Mioara

2018-04-01

Declination annual mean time series longer than 1 century provided by 24 geomagnetic observatories worldwide, together with 5 Western European reconstructed declination series over the last 4 centuries, have been analyzed in terms of the frequency constituents of the secular variation at inter-decadal and sub-centennial timescales of 20-35 and 70-90 years. Observatory and reconstructed time series have been processed by several types of filtering, namely Hodrick-Prescott, running averages, and Butterworth. The Hodrick-Prescott filtering allows us to separate a quasi-oscillation at a decadal timescale, which is assumed to be related to external variations and called the 11-year constituent, from a long-term trend. The latter has been decomposed into two other oscillations called inter-decadal and sub-centennial constituents by applying a Butterworth filtering with cutoffs at 30 and 73 years, respectively. The analysis shows that the generally accepted geomagnetic jerks occur around extrema in the time derivative of the trend and coincide with extrema in the time derivative of the 11-year constituent. The sub-centennial constituent is traced back to 1600 in the five 400-year-long time series and seems to be a major constituent of the secular variation, geomagnetic jerks included.

A chemostratigraphic method to determine the end of impact-related sedimentation at marine-target impact craters (Chesapeake Bay, Lockne, Tvären)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ormö, Jens; Hill, Andrew C.; Self-Trail, Jean M.

2010-01-01

To better understand the impact cratering process and its environmental consequences at the local to global scale, it is important to know when in the geological record of an impact crater the impact-related processes cease. In many instances, this occurs with the end of early crater modification, leaving an obvious sedimentological boundary between impactites and secular sediments. However, in marine-target craters the transition from early crater collapse (i.e., water resurge) to postimpact sedimentation can appear gradual. With the a priori assumption that the reworked target materials of the resurge deposits have a different chemical composition to the secular sediments we use chemostratigraphy (δ13Ccarb, %Corg, major elements) of sediments from the Chesapeake Bay, Lockne, and Tvären craters, to define this boundary. We show that the end of impact-related sedimentation in these cases is fairly rapid, and does not necessarily coincide with a visual boundary (e.g., grain size shift). Therefore, in some cases, the boundary is more precisely determined by chemostratigraphy, especially carbonate carbon isotope variations, rather than by visual inspection. It is also shown how chemostratigraphy can confirm the age of marine-target craters that were previously determined by biostratigraphy; by comparing postimpact carbon isotope trends with established regional trends.

Assessment of nuclear anxiety among American students: Stability over time, secular trends, and emotional correlates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newcomb, M.D.

1989-10-01

Studies of reactions and attitudes toward nuclear war have progressed from the use of anecdotal evidence to multi-item psychological measures. Additional psychometric data and substantive results of the Nuclear Attitudes Questionnaire (NAQ; Newcomb, 1986) are reported here. Data from three independent samples of students from the United States collected in 1984, 1986, and 1987 were compared and contrasted. The 1986 data were obtained immediately following the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. Test-retest reliability of the NAQ items and subscales was quite high and comparable among samples and established the across-time stability of the measure. There were several secular trends acrossmore » years on items and subscales, indicating some increased concern about nuclear power (particularly in 1986), but also a general increase in nuclear concerns, fears, and anxiety. Anticipated sex differences were found on many of the NAQ items and subscales. Correlations between the NAQ subscales and the nine SCL-90-R scales (Derogatis, 1977) were consistent for the 1986 and 1987 samples. In latent variable analyses, a general factor of Emotional Distress was significantly correlated with a general factor of Nuclear Anxiety, as well as specifically with nuclear concern and fear for the future.« less

A Review of Cancer in U.S. Hispanic Populations

PubMed Central

Haile, Robert W.; John, Esther M.; Levine, A. Joan; Cortessis, Victoria K.; Unger, Jennifer B.; Gonzales, Melissa; Ziv, Elad; Thompson, Patricia; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Tucker, Katherine L.; Bernstein, Jonine L.; Rohan, Thomas E.; Ho, Gloria Y.F.; Bondy, Melissa L.; Martinez, Maria Elena; Cook, Linda; Stern, Mariana C.; Correa, Marcia Cruz; Wright, Jonelle; Schwartz, Seth J.; Baezconde-Garbanati, Lourdes; Blinder, Victoria; Miranda, Patricia; Hayes, Richard; Friedman-Jiménez, George; Monroe, Kristine R.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Thomas, Duncan C.; Boffetta, Paolo

2018-01-01

There are compelling reasons to conduct studies of cancer in Hispanics, the fastest growing major demographic group in the United States (from 15% to 30% of the U.S. population by 2050). The genetically admixed Hispanic population coupled with secular trends in environmental exposures and lifestyle/behavioral practices that are associated with immigration and acculturation offer opportunities for elucidating the effects of genetics, environment, and lifestyle on cancer risk and identifying novel risk factors. For example, traditional breast cancer risk factors explain less of the breast cancer risk in Hispanics than in non-Hispanic whites (NHW), and there is a substantially greater proportion of never-smokers with lung cancer in Hispanics than in NHW. Hispanics have higher incidence rates for cancers of the cervix, stomach, liver, and gall bladder than NHW. With respect to these cancers, there are intriguing patterns that warrant study (e.g., depending on country of origin, the five-fold difference in gastric cancer rates for Hispanic men but not Hispanic women). Also, despite a substantially higher incidence rate and increasing secular trend for liver cancer in Hispanics, there have been no studies of Hispanics reported to date. We review the literature and discuss study design options and features that should be considered in future studies. PMID:22307564

Mesozoic–Cenozoic Climate and Neotectonic Events as Factors in Reconstructing the Thermal History of the Source-Rock Bazhenov Formation, Arctic Region, West Siberia, by the Example of the Yamal Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaev, V. I.; Iskorkina, A. A.; Lobova, G. A.; Starostenko, V. I.; Tikhotskii, S. A.; Fomin, A. N.

2018-03-01

Schemes and criteria are developed for using the measured and modeled geotemperatures for studying the thermal regime of the source rock formations, as well as the tectonic and sedimentary history of sedimentary basins, by the example of the oil fields of the Yamal Peninsula. The method of paleotemperature modeling based on the numerical solution of the heat conduction equation for a horizontally layered solid with a movable upper boundary is used. The mathematical model directly includes the climatic secular trend of the Earth's surface temperature as the boundary condition and the paleotemperatures determined from the vitrinite reflectance as the measurement data. The method does not require a priori information about the nature and intensities of the heat flow from the Earth's interior; the flow is determined by solving the inverse problem of geothermy with a parametric description of the of the sedimentation history and the history of the thermophysical properties of the sedimentary stratum. The rate of sedimentation is allowed to be zero and negative which provides the possibility to take into account the gaps in sedimentation and denudation. The formation, existence, and degradation of the permafrost stratum and ice cover are taken into account as dynamical lithological-stratigraphic complexes with anomalously high thermal conductivity. It is established that disregarding the paleoclimatic factors precludes an adequate reconstruction of thermal history of the source-rock deposits. Revealing and taking into account the Late Eocene regression provided the computationally optimal and richest thermal history of the source-rock Bazhenov Formation, which led to more correct volumetric-genetic estimates of the reserves. For estimating the hydrocarbon reserves in the land territories of the Arctic region of West Siberia by the volumetric-genetic technique, it is recommended to use the Arctic secular trend of temperatures and take into account the dynamics of the Neoplesitocene permafrost layers 300-600 m thick. Otherwise, the calculated hydrocarbon reserves could be underestimated by up to 40%.

Do sexual health campaigns work? An outcome evaluation of a media campaign to increase chlamydia testing among young people aged 15–24 in England

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A national multimedia campaign was launched in January 2010, to increase the proportion of young people tested for chlamydia. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the campaign on the coverage and positivity within the National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NSCP) in England. Method An interrupted time series of anonymised NCSP testing reports for England for a 27 month period (1st April 2008 to 30th June 2010) was analysed. Reports were assigned to a pre-campaign, campaign and post campaign phase according to the test date. Exclusion criteria included tests for clinical reasons, contacts of known cases, and tests returned from prisons or military services. Negative binomial and logistic regression modelling was used to provide an estimate for the change in coverage and positivity, during, and after the campaign and estimates were adjusted for secular and cyclical trends. Results Adjusting for cyclical and secular trends, there was no change in the overall testing coverage either during (RR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.72-1.14) or after (RR: 0.88; 95%CI: 0.69-1.11) the campaign. The coverage varied amongst different socio-demographic groups, testing of men increased during the campaign phase while testing of people of black and other ethnic groups fell in this phase. The positivity rate was increased during the campaign (OR: 1.18; 95% CI 1.13-1.23) and further increased in the post-campaign phase (OR: 1.40; 95% CI 1.30-1.51). The proportion of chlamydia infections detected increased for all socio-demographic and self-reported sexual behaviour groups both during and after the campaign. Conclusion The uptake of chlamydia testing rose during the campaign; however, this apparent increase was not maintained once overall trends in testing were taken into account. Nonetheless, once secular and cyclical trends were controlled for, the campaign was associated with an increased positivity linked to increased testing of high risk individuals groups in the target population who were previously less likely to come forward for testing. However, our study indicated that there may have been a disparity in the impact of the campaign on different population groups. The content and delivery of ongoing and future information campaigns aimed at increasing chlamydia screening should be carefully developed so that they are relevant to all sections of the target population. PMID:23683345

Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany

PubMed Central

Steiber, Nadia

2015-01-01

This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50–90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50–64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process. PMID:26323093

A Meta-Analysis and an Evaluation of Trends in Obesity Prevalence among Children and Adolescents in Turkey: 1990 through 2015

PubMed Central

Alper, Züleyha; Ercan, İlker; Uncu, Yeşim

2018-01-01

Objective Obesity in childhood and adolescence is one of the most serious public health problems due to a remarkable increase in prevalence in recent years and its close relationship with non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes and hypertension, resulting in increased adult morbidity and mortality. This study aims to quantify the secular trend in different regions of Turkey from 1990 to 2015 by performing a meta-analysis of childhood and adolescent obesity prevalence studies conducted. Methods Uludag University Library Database was searched for relevant articles published prior to March 2017. The heterogeneity of the studies in the meta-analysis was tested by the I2 statistic and Cochran’s Q test. The obesity trend analyses were examined by chi-square trend analysis with respect to five year periods. The statistical significance level was taken as α=0.05. Results A total of 76 papers were initially identified addressing childhood and adolescent obesity in Turkey. Fifty-eight papers were selected for analysis. The prevalence of obesity increased from 0.6% to 7.3% with an 11.6-fold increase between the periods 1990-1995 to 2011-2015. The prevalence of obesity increased in both genders. However, boys were more likely to be obese than girls. Conclusion Studies on obesity prevalence in the 5-19 age group in Turkey have gained importance, especially in the 2000s. While a remarkable number of prevalence studies, mostly regional, have been conducted between 2005-2011, a gradual decline was observed thereafter. Further national and population-based surveys on prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents are definitely needed in Turkey. PMID:28901943

A Meta-Analysis and an Evaluation of Trends in Obesity Prevalence among Children and Adolescents in Turkey: 1990 through 2015.

PubMed

Alper, Züleyha; Ercan, İlker; Uncu, Yeşim

2018-03-01

Obesity in childhood and adolescence is one of the most serious public health problems due to a remarkable increase in prevalence in recent years and its close relationship with non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes and hypertension, resulting in increased adult morbidity and mortality. This study aims to quantify the secular trend in different regions of Turkey from 1990 to 2015 by performing a meta-analysis of childhood and adolescent obesity prevalence studies conducted. Uludag University Library Database was searched for relevant articles published prior to March 2017. The heterogeneity of the studies in the meta-analysis was tested by the I2 statistic and Cochran's Q test. The obesity trend analyses were examined by chi-square trend analysis with respect to five year periods. The statistical significance level was taken as α=0.05. A total of 76 papers were initially identified addressing childhood and adolescent obesity in Turkey. Fifty-eight papers were selected for analysis. The prevalence of obesity increased from 0.6% to 7.3% with an 11.6-fold increase between the periods 1990-1995 to 2011-2015. The prevalence of obesity increased in both genders. However, boys were more likely to be obese than girls. Studies on obesity prevalence in the 5-19 age group in Turkey have gained importance, especially in the 2000s. While a remarkable number of prevalence studies, mostly regional, have been conducted between 2005-2011, a gradual decline was observed thereafter. Further national and population-based surveys on prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents are definitely needed in Turkey.

Modeling a secular trend by Monte Carlo simulation of height biased migration in a spatial network.

PubMed

Groth, Detlef

2017-04-01

Background: In a recent Monte Carlo simulation, the clustering of body height of Swiss military conscripts within a spatial network with characteristic features of the natural Swiss geography was investigated. In this study I examined the effect of migration of tall individuals into network hubs on the dynamics of body height within the whole spatial network. The aim of this study was to simulate height trends. Material and methods: Three networks were used for modeling, a regular rectangular fishing net like network, a real world example based on the geographic map of Switzerland, and a random network. All networks contained between 144 and 148 districts and between 265-307 road connections. Around 100,000 agents were initially released with average height of 170 cm, and height standard deviation of 6.5 cm. The simulation was started with the a priori assumption that height variation within a district is limited and also depends on height of neighboring districts (community effect on height). In addition to a neighborhood influence factor, which simulates a community effect, body height dependent migration of conscripts between adjacent districts in each Monte Carlo simulation was used to re-calculate next generation body heights. In order to determine the direction of migration for taller individuals, various centrality measures for the evaluation of district importance within the spatial network were applied. Taller individuals were favored to migrate more into network hubs, backward migration using the same number of individuals was random, not biased towards body height. Network hubs were defined by the importance of a district within the spatial network. The importance of a district was evaluated by various centrality measures. In the null model there were no road connections, height information could not be delivered between the districts. Results: Due to the favored migration of tall individuals into network hubs, average body height of the hubs, and later, of the whole network increased by up to 0.1 cm per iteration depending on the network model. The general increase in height within the network depended on connectedness and on the amount of height information that was exchanged between neighboring districts. If higher amounts of neighborhood height information were exchanged, the general increase in height within the network was large (strong secular trend). The trend in the homogeneous fishnet like network was lowest, the trend in the random network was highest. Yet, some network properties, such as the heteroscedasticity and autocorrelations of the migration simulation models differed greatly from the natural features observed in Swiss military conscript networks. Autocorrelations of district heights for instance, were much higher in the migration models. Conclusion: This study confirmed that secular height trends can be modeled by preferred migration of tall individuals into network hubs. However, basic network properties of the migration simulation models differed greatly from the natural features observed in Swiss military conscripts. Similar network-based data from other countries should be explored to better investigate height trends with Monte Carlo migration approach.

Explanation of observable secular variations of gravity and alternative methods of determination of drift of the center of mass of the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkin, Yury

2010-05-01

The summary. On the basis of geodynamic model of the forced relative displacement of the centers of mass of the core and the mantle of the Earth the secular variations of a gravity and heights of some gravimetry stations on a surface of the Earth have ben studied. At the account of secular drift of the center of mass of the Earth which on our geodynamic model is caused by the unidirectional drift of the core of the Earth relatively to the mantle, the full explanation is given to observable secular variations of a gravity at stations Ny-Alesund (Norway), Churchill (Canada), Medicine (Italy), Sayowa (Antarctica), Strastburg (France), Membach (Belgium), Wuhan (China) and Metsahovi (Finland). Two new methods of determination of secular drift of the center of mass of the Earth, alternative to classical method of a space geodesy are offered: 1) on the basis of gravimetry data about secular trends of a gravity at the stations located on all basic regions of the Earth; 2) on the basis of the comparative analysis of altimetry and coastal data about secular changes of sea level also in basic regions of ocean. 1. Secular drift of the center of mass of the core and the center of mass of the Earth. A secular drift of the center of mass of the Earth to the North relatively to special center O on an axis of rotation of the Earth for which the coefficient of third zonal harmonic J3' = 0, has been predicted in the author work [1]. A drift in a direction to a geographical point (pole P) 70°0 N and 104°3 E has been established for the first time theoretically - as a result of the analysis of the global directed redistribution of masses of the Earth, explaining the observed secular drift of the pole of an axis of rotation of the Earth and not tidal acceleration of its axial rotation [2]. In [1] velocity of drift it has been estimated in 1-2 cm/yr. For specified center O the figure of a planet is as though deprived of pure-shaped form (J3' = 0). And in this sense the point O can be conditionally corresponded to the geocenter of the Earth approximately determined by position of stations of satellite observations, as the center of certain mantle systems of coordinates Oxyz. For an explanation of such significant drift of the center of mass of the Earth the mechanism of the unidirectional displacement of the core of the Earth (and its center of mass) relatively to a viscoelastic mantle [1, 2] has been offered. The next years attempts of determination of velocity of secular drift of the center of mass in the mantle reference frame by methods of a space geodesy on the basis of precision satellite observations were repeatedly undertaken. In our work [3] for determination of a trend of the center of mass the data of the International Service of Rotation of the Earth (IERS) for satellite observations of system DORIS have been used. For components of velocity of drift in geocentric Greenwich system of coordinates for period 1999-2007 estimations have been obtained: on coordinate x) -1.46 mm/yr, y) 0.79 mm/yr and z) 5.29 mm/yr (errors of the specified estimations make 5-10 %). The velocity of trend of the center of mass of the Earth and its direction are characterized by values: 5.54 mm/yr; latitude 72°6 N and a longitude 118°4 E. The direction of displacement of the center of mass will well be coordinated with a direction predicted earlier theoretically [2]: latitude 70° N and a longitude 104° E. We shall emphasize, that observable redistributions of superficial masses of the Earth explain only small part of observable displacement of the center of mass. It testifies in favour of a reality of secular relative displacement of the core and the mantle of the Earth. 2 Secular drift of the core to the North and variations of a gravity on the Earth surface. The displaced core of the Earth is characterized by the large superfluous mass approximately in 16.7 masses of the Moon. The superfluous mass is ditermined by contrast values of average densities of the core and the mantle and makes 19.32 % of mass of full the Earth. At displacement of the core relatively to the viscous-elastic mantle its superfluous mass causes observable drift of the center of mass, and also leads to changes of a gravity on the surface of the planet. Except for it the gravitational attraction of a displaced core causes deformations of all layers of the mantle, including a superficial layer. The deformed mantle produses some additional gravitational potential which gives the additional contribution to value of a gravity. Thus, noted factors lead to a secular variation of a gravity which is described by the simple formula [2]: dot g = 2gμmc-(1- h-2- 0.5k-2)ρdot-sin?, μmc = 0.1932m ⊙, g = 9.82022 m -s2 m ⊙ r⊙ (1) Here μmc = 0.1932m⊙ is a superflous mass of the Earth core in the masses of the Earth m⊙. g is an acceleration of free falling. k-2 and h-2 are Love numbers of the order (-2). ρdot is a velocity of the secular drift of the center of mass of the core relatively to the center of mass of the mantle. ?is an angle between dirtection to the pole P (in a direction to which the core of the Earth or its center of mass drifts), and direction to gravimetric station. For rough estimates of gravimetric effects as pole P the North Pole of the Earth has been accepted. Thus ? = ?-2 - φis a co-latitude. At more exact description of the core drift (or the center of mass drift) an angle? is determined by formula: cos? = cosφP cosφcos(λP - λ) + sinφP sinφ, where φP and λP is a latitude and longitude of pole P; φ and λ is a latitude and longitude of station. The Love numbers of the order (-2) in first have been evaluated in the paper [4] and have small values: k-2=-0.005004 and h-2=0.0062154. Approximately we can put ρdot m⊙ = μmcṙC, where ṙC is a velocity of the drift of the center of mass of the Earth. Then, neglecting small effects, for a variation of gravity (1) we obtain a following expression: ? r = 2ṙCg cos?-r⊙. Leaning on results of works [2], [3], we shall accept the following values of parameters of drift of the center of mass: ṙC=5.54 mm/yr, φP=70°0 N, λP=104°3 E. On the other hand a displacement of the center of mass of the Earth leads to effect of slow change of heights of gravimetric station: ḣ = -?dotC cos? = -5.54 × cos? mm/yr. Errors in determination of the specified characteristics in the given work we shall neglect. Besides the gravitational attraction of a displaced core leads also to effect of increase of horizontal component of gravitational force of an attraction of the Earth on its surface directed to the North along the corresponding meridian with pole P. For any point of a surface of the Earth this component of force is determined by the formula ?φ = ṙCg sin?-r⊙ and has positive values. And the maximal values ?φ are reached on equator, which plane is orthogonal to axes of drift of the core OP. Thus, final working formulas for studying of secular variations of components of force of a gravitational attraction of the Earth and for a variation of the heights caused by a drift of the center of mass of the Earth become: ?r = 1.74cos?-r⊙ ?Gal/yr, ?φ = 0.87sin?-r⊙ ?Gal/yr, ḣ = -5.54cos?-r⊙ mm/yr. Calculated values of mentioned gravimetric characteristics (2) for the wide list of gravimetry stations are resulted in work [5] and used in the given work. 3 Explanation of observable secular variations of a gravity and heights on gravimetric stations. We have been analysed observed variations of a gravity and heights available and accessible to us, namely their secular changes, for 8 known gravimetry stations. The periods of observations at mentioned stations make the order of 5-10 years, i.e. are not greater, but nevertheless the obtained results unequivocally testify in favour of that the basic contribution to secular variations of a gravity gives the drifting core of the Earth (by means of direct gravitational influence and due to a contribution to corresponding variations of heights). In the given work we did not consider other factors influencing on gravimetric measurements (superficial redistributions of fluid masses, variations of coefficients of the second and higher harmonics of a geopotential, etc.). As an example here we shall analyse secular variations of a gravity and heights at Ny-Alesund station (geographical coordinates: 78°93 N, 11°87 E, ? =23°16). Linear trends of a gravity and height observable at this station make -2.5±0.9 ?Gal/yr and + (6.9±0.9) mm/yr, accordingly, during 1998-2002 (Sato et.al., 2006). On our model a slow closing of the core to the Ny-Alesund station causes a positive variation of a gravity in 1.60 ?Gal/yr and a negative variation of height of station in -5.09 mm/yr [5]. These data testify a deformation of a surface of the Earth in area of station with a velocity +11.99±0.9 mm/yr owing to which the gravity tests a negative variation -3.74±0.28 ?Gal/yr. Putting effects of a variation of a gravity because of displacement of the core and from deformation of a surface, we obtain negative value for secular trend of gravity in - (2.14±0.28) ?Gal/yr, that within the limits of errors it will be coordinated with observable value - (2.5±0.9) ?Gal/yr. Similar results we have obtained for 7 another's gravimetric stations. All results are summarized in the table 1. Here we have used known data about observable secular trends of gravity and GPS heights at considered here stations of the following authors: Ny-Alesund (Sato et al., 2006); Churchill (Larson et al., 2000); Medicine (Zerbini et al., 2001); Syowa (Fukuda et.al., 2007); Strastburg (Almavict et. al., 2004); Membach (Francis et al., 2004); Wuhan (Xu et al., 2008); Metsahovi (Gitlein et. al., 2009). Table 1. Theoretical and observable values of secular variations of a gravity. Stations Core attractionSurface deformation Theory Observations Ny-Alesund+1.60 ?Gal/yr -(3.77±0.09) ?Gal/yr -(2.17±0.03) ?Gal/yr -(2.5±0.9) ?Gal/yr Churchill +1.11 ?Gal/yr -(3.38±0.28) ?Gal/yr -(2.22±0.28) ?Gal/yr -(2.13±0.23) ?Gal/yr Medicina +1.13 ?Gal/yr +(1.07±0.20) ?Gal/yr+(2.20±0.20) ?Gal/yr+(1.90±0.20) ?Gal/yr Syowa -1.44 ?Gal/yr +(0.63±0.08) ?Gal/yr-(0.81±0.08) ?Gal/yr -0.56 ?Gal/yr Strastburg +1.18 ?Gal/yr +(0.71±0.02) ?Gal/yr+(1.89±0.02) ?Gal/yr+(1.90±0.20) ?Gal/yr Membach +1.21 ?Gal/yr -(1.98±0.16) ?Gal/yr -(0.77±0.16) ?Gal/yr -(0.6±0.1) ?Gal/yr Wuhan +1.34 ?Gal/yr -(0.17±0.05) ?Gal/yr +(1.17±0.05) ?Gal/yr+(1.39±0.02) ?Gal/yr Metsahovi +1.47 ?Gal/yr -(2.82±0.06) ?Gal/yr +(1.35±0.06) ?Gal/yr-(0.88±0.52) ?Gal/yr

The Secular Trends in the Incidence Rate and Outcomes of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in Taiwan—A Nationwide Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Cheng-Yi; Wang, Jen-Yu; Teng, Nai-Chi; Chao, Ting-Ting; Tsai, Shu-Ling; Chen, Chi-Liang; Hsu, Jeng-Yuan; Wu, Chin-Pyng; Lai, Chih-Cheng; Chen, Likwang

2015-01-01

Objective This study investigated the trends in incidence and mortality of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), as well as factors associated with OHCA outcomes in Taiwan. Methods Our study included OHCA patients requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) upon arrival at the hospital. We used national time-series data on annual OHCA incidence rates and mortality rates from 2000 to 2012, and individual demographic and clinical data for all OHCA patients requiring mechanical ventilation (MV) care from March of 2010 to September of 2011. Analytic techniques included the time-series regression and the logistic regression. Results There were 117,787 OHCAs in total. The overall incidence rate during the 13 years was 51.1 per 100,000 persons, and the secular trend indicates a sharp increase in the early 2000s and a decrease afterwards. The trend in mortality was also curvilinear, revealing a substantial increase in the early 2000s, a subsequent steep decline and finally a modest increase. Both the 30-day and 180-day mortality rates had a long-term decreasing trend over the period (p<0.01). For both incidence and mortality rates, a significant second-order autoregressive effect emerged. Among OHCA patients with MV, 1-day, 30-day and 180-day mortality rates were 31.3%, 75.8%, and 86.0%, respectively. In this cohort, older age, the female gender, and a Charlson comorbidity index score ≥ 2 were associated with higher 180-day mortality; patients delivered to regional hospitals and those residing in non-metropolitan areas had higher death risk. Conclusions Overall, both the 30-day and the 180-day mortality rates after OHCA had a long-term decreasing trend, while the 1-day mortality had no long-term decline. Among OHCA patients requiring MV, those delivered to regional hospitals and those residing in non-metropolitan areas tended to have higher mortality, suggesting a need for effort to further standardize and improve in-hospital care across hospitals and to advance pre-hospital care in non-metropolitan areas. PMID:25875921

Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Mette; Krølner, Rikke; Svastisalee, Chalida Mae; Due, Pernille; Holstein, Bjørn Evald

2008-01-01

Background Intermittent monitoring of fruit and vegetable intake at the population level is essential for the evaluation and planning of national dietary interventions. Yet, only a limited number of studies on time trends in fruit and vegetable intake among children and adolescents have been published internationally. In Denmark, national comprehensive campaigns to enhance fruit and vegetable consumption were initiated in 2001. This paper describes secular trends in fruit intake among Danish adolescents by six comparable school surveys from 1988 to 2006. The paper demonstrates and discusses the consequences of measurement changes introduced in long-term trend analyses. Methods We used Danish data from the international Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study collected in 1988, 1991, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006. Analyses were conducted on comparable questionnaire-based data from students aged 11, 13 and 15 total (n = 23,871) from a random sample of schools. Data on fruit intake were measured by a food frequency questionnaire. Due to changes in number of response categories beween surveys, different cut-points were analysed. Results The prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily ranged from 78.3% among 13-year-old girls in 1988 to 17.3% among 15-year-old boys in 2002. Based on the six data collections, analyses of trends showed a significant decrease in prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily from 1988 to 2002 (all p-values < 0.0001). In all age and gender groups, a significant increase in intake occurred between 2002 and 2006 (all p-values < 0.0065). Analyses of alternative cut-points revealed similar results. Conclusion Fruit consumption among Danish schoolchildren decreased from 1988 to 2002 with an increase since 2002. We suggest that the increase may be attributable to a nation-wide initiative conducted in Denmark since 2001 to increase the intake of fruit and vegetables in the population. Still, the results imply that a substantial proportion of Danish schoolchildren do not meet the nationally recommended daily intake of fruit. Our analyses indicate that the observed trends are not solely caused by methodological biases related to changes in measurements. PMID:18237390

Early trends from the Study to Evaluate the Prospective Payment System Impact on Small Dialysis Organizations (STEPPS).

PubMed

Brunelli, Steven M; Monda, Keri L; Burkart, John M; Gitlin, Matthew; Neumann, Peter J; Park, Grace S; Symonian-Silver, Margarita; Yue, Susan; Bradbury, Brian D; Rubin, Robert J

2013-06-01

Launched in January 2011, the prospective payment system (PPS) for the US Medicare End-Stage Renal Disease Program bundled payment for services previously reimbursed independently. Small dialysis organizations may be particularly susceptible to the financial implications of the PPS. The ongoing Study to Evaluate the Prospective Payment System Impact on Small Dialysis Organizations (STEPPS) was designed to describe trends in care and outcomes over the period of PPS implementation. This report details early results between October 2010 and June 2011. Prospective observational cohort study of patients from a sample of 51 small dialysis organizations. 1,873 adult hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients. Secular trends in processes of care, anemia, metabolic bone disease management, and red blood cell transfusions. Facility-level data are collected quarterly. Patient characteristics were collected at enrollment and scheduled intervals thereafter. Clinical outcomes are collected on an ongoing basis. Over time, no significant changes were observed in patient to staff ratios. There was a temporal trend toward greater use of peritoneal dialysis (from 2.4% to 3.6%; P = 0.09). Use of cinacalcet, phosphate binders, and oral vitamin D increased; intravenous (IV) vitamin D use decreased (P for trend for all <0.001). Parathyroid hormone levels increased (from 273 to 324 pg/dL; P < 0.001). Erythropoiesis-stimulating agent doses decreased (P < 0.001 for IV epoetin alfa and IV darbepoetin alfa), particularly high doses. Mean hemoglobin levels decreased (P < 0.001), the percentage of patients with hemoglobin levels <10 g/dL increased (from 12.7% to 16.8%), and transfusion rates increased (from 14.3 to 19.6/100 person-years; P = 0.1). Changes in anemia management were more pronounced for African American patients. Limited data were available for the prebundle period. Secular trends may be subject to the ecologic fallacy and are not causal in nature. In the period after PPS implementation, IV vitamin D use decreased, use of oral therapies for metabolic bone disease increased, erythropoiesis-stimulating agent use and hemoglobin levels decreased, and transfusion rates increased numerically. Copyright © 2013 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Historical Improvements in Well-Being Do Not Hold in Late Life: Birth- and Death-Year Cohorts in the US and Germany

PubMed Central

Hülür, Gizem; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2015-01-01

One key objective of lifespan research is to examine how individual development is shaped by the historical time people live in. Secular trends favoring later-born cohorts on fluid cognitive abilities have been widely documented, but findings are mixed for well-being. It remains an open question whether secular increases in well-being seen in earlier phases of life also manifest in the last years of life. To examine this possibility, we made use of longitudinal data obtained from the mid 1980s until the late 2000s in two large national samples in the US (Health and Retirement Study, HRS) and Germany (German Socio-Economic Panel, SOEP). We operationally defined historical time from two complementary perspectives: birth-year cohorts based on the years people were born (earlier: 1930s vs. later: 1940s); and death-year cohorts based on the years people died (earlier: 1990s vs. later: 2000s). To control for relevant covariates, we used case-matched groups based on age (at death) and education and covaried for gender, health, and number of observations. Results from both countries revealed that well-being in old age was indeed developing at higher levels among later-born cohorts. However, for later-deceased cohorts, no evidence for secular increases in well-being was found. To the contrary, later-dying SOEP participants reported lower levels of well-being at age 75 years and 2 years prior to death and experienced steeper late-life declines. Our results suggest that secular increases in well-being observed in old age do not manifest in late-life where “manufactured” survival may be exacerbating age- and mortality-related declines. PMID:26098582

Schrödinger Evolution of Self-Gravitating Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batygin, Konstantin

2018-04-01

An understanding of the long-term evolution of self-gravitating disks ranks among the classic problems of dynamical astronomy. In this talk, I will describe an intriguing connection between the secular inclination dynamics of a Lagrange-Laplace disk and the time-dependent Schrödinger equation. Within the context of this formalism, nodal bending waves correspond to the eigen-modes of a quasiparticle’s wavefunction, confined in an infinite square well with boundaries given by the radial extent of the disk. I will further show that external secular perturbations upon self-gravitating disks exhibit a mathematical similarity to quantum scattering theory, yielding an analytic criterion for the gravitational rigidity of a nearly-Keplerian disk under external perturbations.

Ensemble of single quadrupolar nuclei in rotating solids: sidebands in NMR spectrum.

PubMed

Kundla, Enn

2006-07-01

A novel way is proposed to describe the evolution of nuclear magnetic polarization and the induced NMR spectrum. In this method, the effect of a high-intensity external static magnetic field and the effects of proper Hamiltonian left over interaction components, which commute with the first, are taken into account simultaneously and equivalently. The method suits any concrete NMR problem. This brings forth the really existing details in the registered spectra, evoked by Hamiltonian secular terms, which may be otherwise smoothed due to approximate treatment of the effects of the secular terms. Complete analytical expressions are obtained describing the NMR spectra including the rotational sideband sets of single quadrupolar nuclei in rotating solids.

Adapting Music for the Ninth Grade Mixed Chorus.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIntosh, Kathleen

1980-01-01

The author discusses how the ninth grader's vocal development, personality development and musical preferences create unique problems in selecting music for ninth grade choirs. Suggestions are made for adapting published choral music. A list of sacred, secular and Christmas music is included. (KC)

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians.

PubMed

Antero-Jacquemin, Juliana da Silva; Berthelot, Geoffroy; Marck, Adrien; Noirez, Philippe; Latouche, Aurélien; Toussaint, Jean-François

2015-08-01

Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer-Olympians and supercentenarians-under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic "probabilistic barrier" limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic "barrier" forecast. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

Crustal structure of Precambrian terranes in the southern African subcontinent with implications for secular variation in crustal genesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kachingwe, Marsella; Nyblade, Andrew; Julià, Jordi

2015-07-01

New estimates of crustal thickness, Poisson's ratio and crustal shear wave velocity have been obtained for 39 stations in Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zambia by modelling P-wave receiver functions using the H-κ stacking method and jointly inverting the receiver functions with Rayleigh-wave phase and group velocities. These estimates, combined with similar results from previous studies, have been examined for secular trends in Precambrian crustal structure within the southern African subcontinent. In both Archean and Proterozoic terranes we find similar Moho depths [38-39 ± 3 km SD (standard deviation)], crustal Poisson's ratio (0.26 ± 0.01 SD), mean crustal shear wave velocity (3.7 ± 0.1 km s-1 SD), and amounts of heterogeneity in the thickness of the mafic lower crust, as defined by shear wave velocities ≥4.0 km s-1. In addition, the amount of variability in these crustal parameters is similar within each individual age grouping as between age groupings. Thus, the results provide little evidence for secular variation in Precambrian crustal structure, including between Meso- and Neoarchean crust. This finding suggests that (1) continental crustal has been generated by similar processes since the Mesoarchean or (2) plate tectonic processes have reworked and modified the crust through time, erasing variations in structure resulting from crustal genesis.

Multiculturalism and England’s Muslim Minority: Solution or Problem?

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

teens . In the survey, 73 Mirza, Policy Exchange: p. 5. 74 Ibid. 30 …almost one-third agreed that...a naked secularism that estranges Muslims and other believers. One thing is certain…Europe needs to develop an integration policy that works. But

Mental Health and Coping Patterns in Jewish Gay Men in Israel: The Role of Dual Identity Conflict, Religious Identity, and Partnership Status.

PubMed

Zeidner, Moshe; Zevulun, Attara

2018-01-01

This study examined the effects of dual-identity conflict, religious identity (religious/spiritual vs. sexual), and partnership status on the coping strategies and mental health of gay Jewish men in modern Israeli society. Participants were 73 religious and 71 secular gay men recruited via e-mail, social networking sites, and online resources targeting sexual minority men. Participants were assessed via measures of identity conflict, mental health, and coping strategies. Jewish gay men who reported more severe identity conflict also reported using less problem-focused and avoidance coping and more emotion-focused coping strategies and reported poorer mental health than their less identity-conflicted counterparts. Furthermore, gay men who self-identified as religious reported poorer mental health as well as less problem-focused coping and more emotion-focused coping compared to secular men. Religious gay men in romantic relationships reported lower intensities of dual-identity conflict and better mental health compared to their nonpartnered counterparts.

On the Milankovitch orbital elements for perturbed Keplerian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosengren, Aaron J.; Scheeres, Daniel J.

2014-03-01

We consider sets of natural vectorial orbital elements of the Milankovitch type for perturbed Keplerian motion. These elements are closely related to the two vectorial first integrals of the unperturbed two-body problem; namely, the angular momentum vector and the Laplace-Runge-Lenz vector. After a detailed historical discussion of the origin and development of such elements, nonsingular equations for the time variations of these sets of elements under perturbations are established, both in Lagrangian and Gaussian form. After averaging, a compact, elegant, and symmetrical form of secular Milankovitch-like equations is obtained, which reminds of the structure of canonical systems of equations in Hamiltonian mechanics. As an application of this vectorial formulation, we analyze the motion of an object orbiting about a planet (idealized as a point mass moving in a heliocentric elliptical orbit) and subject to solar radiation pressure acceleration (obeying an inverse-square law). We show that the corresponding secular problem is integrable and we give an explicit closed-form solution.

Generation Changes over the Period of 1986-2006 in the Physical Fitness of Boys Aged 7-19 from Eastern Poland at Particular Stages of Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saczuk, Jerzy; Wasiluk, Agnieszka; Zalech, Miroslaw

2012-01-01

Study aim: To assess the size of secular trends in the physical fitness of boys from eastern Poland taking into consideration stages of education. Material and methods: The physical fitness results of boys aged 7-19 years living in eastern regions of Poland were analyzed: 3188 students were examined in 1986 while in 2006 the research included 10…

Secular trend of menarche in Zagreb (Croatia) adolescents.

PubMed

Veček, Nenad; Veček, Andrea; Zajc Petranović, Matea; Tomas, Zeljka; Arch-Veček, Branka; Skarić-Jurić, Tatjana; Miličić, Jasna

2012-01-01

To study the secular trend of menarche in high-school urban adolescent girls (Zagreb, Croatia) over the last two decades, and to evaluate the possible impact of worsening of socio-economic conditions on age at menarche during the Croatian War of Independence (1991-1995). Three surveys of female adolescents aged 15-19 years: (a) 523 girls interviewed in 1990, (b) 888 girls interviewed in 1997, and (c) 399 girls interviewed in 2010. Self-reported age at menarche (in decimal years) was presented by age groups and year of interview. Differences in mean age at menarche between adolescent age groups as well as between surveys were tested using One-way ANOVA. The mean age at menarche was 12.82 years in 1990, 12.92 years in 1997 and 12.31 years in 2010. It increased by 0.10 years from 1990 to 1997 (p=0.290) and then declined by 0.61 years from 1997 to 2010 (p<0.001). Over the 20-year period, the overall mean age at menarche declined by 0.51 years (p<0.001). The age at menarche in Zagreb adolescents continued to decline significantly from 1990 to 2010 (p<0.001), in spite of a statistically insignificant initial increase between 1990 and 1997. When put in broader context, age at menarche mirrored socio-economic changes in the war period. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Incidence and Management of Conflicts in Secular and Non-Secular Tertiary Institutions in South West Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ayodele, Joseph Babatola; Adewumi, Joseph Olukayode

2007-01-01

This paper compared the incidence and management of conflicts in secular and non-secular tertiary institutions in Nigeria. The sample of this study was made of sixty staff, and two hundred and forty students randomly selected each from two secular and two non-secular tertiary institutions in south western Nigeria. A validated questionnaire was…

Secular and annual hydrologic effects from the Plate Boundary Observatory GPS network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meertens, C. M.; Wahr, J. M.; Borsa, A. A.; Jackson, M. E.; Herring, T.

2009-12-01

The Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) GPS network is providing accurate and spatially coherent vertical signals that can be interpreted in terms of hydrological loading and poroelastic effects from both natural and anthropogenic changes in water storage. Data used for this analysis are the precise coordinate time series produced on a daily basis by PBO Analysis Centers at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology and at Central Washington University and combined by the Analysis Center Coordinator at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. These products, as well as derived velocity solutions, are made freely available from the UNAVCO Data Center in Boulder. Analysis of secular trends and annual variations in the time series was made using the analysis software of Langbein, 2008. Spatial variations in the amplitude and phase of the annual vertical component of motion allow for identification of anthropogenic effects due to water pumping, irrigation, and reservoir lake variations, and of outliers due to instrumental or other local site effects. Vertical annual signals of 8-10 mm peak-to-peak amplitude are evident at stations in the mountains of northern and central California and the Pacific Northwest. The peak annual uplift is in October and is correlated to hydrological loading effects. Mountainous areas appear to be responding elastically to the load of the water contained in surface soil, fractures, and snow. Vertical signals are highest when the water load is at a minimum. The vertical elastic hydrologic loading signal was modeled using the 0.25 degree community NOAH land-surface model (LSM) and generally fits the observed GPS signal. Addition comparisons will be made using the Mosaic LSM and the NOAA “Leaky Bucket” hydrologic model. In contrast to mountain stations that are installed principally in bedrock, stations in the valleys of California are installed in sediments. Observations from these stations show greater spatial variability ranging from almost no detectable annual signal to very large, 20-30 mm, vertical amplitudes that reach a maximum in March. Vertical signals in the valleys are the result of poroelastic effects induced by groundwater variations caused by pumping for irrigation or other purposes and are highest when groundwater is at maximum recharge level. Secular trends in the vertical time series show 1-3 mm/yr of subsidence across the western U.S. In areas of groundwater pumping the rates are up to several cm/yr showing subsidence as pumping exceeds annual recharge over a multi-year time period. In the mountainous areas where hydrologic loading is evident in the annual signals, secular trends show uplift of 1-3 mm/yr possibly due to regional drought and decreased overall water volumes that result in less load and vertical uplift. Overall, these results illustrate the potential of using GPS data to constrain hydrological models. In return, accurate hydrologic loading models will be needed to better measure and detect vertical tectonic motions at the mm-level.

In sæcula sæculorum: A lab activity to create with students a radioactive secular equilibrium model⋆

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santostasi, D.

2017-03-01

The teaching of radioactivity in the high school is often difficult to implement, especially from an experimental point of view. In this paper an activity based on a laboratory experiment on radioactivity is presented. The activity was proposed to high school students in their fourth year of studies attending the summer internship organized by the University of Pavia at the Department of Physics. The experiement concerns the radon decay chain, and in particular the measurement of the activity of 214Bi , both in absence and in presence of its progenitor 222Rn . This way it is possible to observe two different decay curves: the first provides a 214Bi decay constant in agreement with the theoretical one, whereas the trend of the second one can be understood only through the hypothesis of secular equilibrium with 222Rn . Using an engaging and interesting game with dice, a model of radioactive decay was developed and performed with students divided in small groups.

Body mass index trend in haemodialysis patients: the shift of nutritional disorders in two Italian regions.

PubMed

Postorino, Maurizio; Mancini, Elena; D'Arrigo, Graziella; Marino, Carmela; Vilasi, Antonio; Tripepi, Giovanni; Gallus, Silvano; Lugo, Alessandra; Santoro, Antonio; Zoccali, Carmine

2016-10-01

In the USA, the increase in the prevalence of obesity in the general population has been accompanied by a marked increase in the prevalence and incidence of obesity in the dialysis population. However, secular trends of body mass index (BMI) have not been investigated in European renal registries. We investigated the secular trend of BMI across 18 years (1994-2011) in two haemodialysis (HD) registries (Calabria in southern Italy and Emilia in northern Italy) on a total of 16 201 prevalent HD patients and in a series of 3559 incident HD patients. We compared trends in BMI for HD patients with those in the background general population of the same regions. The average BMI rose from 23.5 kg/m(2) in 1994 to 25.5 (+8.5%) in 2011 in the Calabria registry and from 23.7 in 1998 to 25.4 (+7.1%) in 2011 in the Emilia registry (P < 0.001). The proportion of obese patients (i.e. with BMI >30 kg/m(2)) rose from 6 to 14% in Calabria and from 6 to 16% in Emilia (P < 0.001). These patterns were fully confirmed in incident patients and were mirrored by a substantial decline in the prevalence of underweight-normal and underweight (P < 0.001) patients. Of note, the steepness of the increase in BMI in haemodialysis patients was 3.7 times more pronounced than that in the coeval, age- and sex-matched general population of Calabria and Emilia. In two regional haemodialysis registries in Italy a steady increase in overweight and obese patients is observed. These patterns are more pronounced than those found in the general population. If further confirmed in other European haemodialysis cohorts, these findings may have relevant public health implications. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Ecological analysis of secular trends in low birth weight births and adult height in Japan.

PubMed

Morisaki, Naho; Urayama, Kevin Yuji; Yoshii, Keisuke; Subramanian, S V; Yokoya, Susumu

2017-10-01

Japan, which currently maintains the highest life expectancy in the world and has experienced an impressive gain in adult height over the past century, has suffered a dramatic twofold increase in low birth weight (LBW) births since the 1970s. We observed secular trends in birth characteristics using 64 115 249 live births included the vital statistics (1969-2014), as well as trends in average height among 3 145 521 adults born between 1969 and 1996, included in 79 surveys conducted among a national, subnational or community population in Japan. LBW rates exhibited a U-shaped pattern showing reductions until 1978-1979 (5.5%), after which it increased. Conversely, average adult height peaked for those born during the same period (men, 171.5 cm; women, 158.5 cm), followed by a reduction over the next 20 years. LBW rate and adult height showed a strong inverse correlation (men, r=-0.98; women, r=-0.88). A prediction model based on birth and economical characteristics estimated the national average of adult height would continue to decline, to 170.0cm (95% CI 169.6 to 170.3) for men and 157.9cm (95% CI 157.5 to 158.3) for women among those born in 2014. Adult height in Japan has started to decline for those born after 1980, a trend that may be attributed to increases in LBW births over time. Considering the known association between shorter adult height and adverse health outcomes, evidence of population-level decline in adult health due to long-term consequences of increasing LBW births in Japan is anticipated. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.

PubMed

Franco, Manuel; Bilal, Usama; Orduñez, Pedro; Benet, Mikhail; Morejón, Alain; Caballero, Benjamín; Kennelly, Joan F; Cooper, Richard S

2013-04-09

To evaluate the associations between population-wide loss and gain in weight with diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality trends, in Cuba over a 30 year interval. Repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends. Cuba and the province of Cienfuegos, from 1980 to 2010. Measurements in Cienfuegos included a representative sample of 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. National surveys included a representative sample of 14 304, 22 851, and 8031 participants in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. Changes in smoking, daily energy intake, physical activity, and body weight were tracked from 1980 to 2010 using national and regional surveys. Data for diabetes prevalence and incidence were obtained from national population based registries. Mortality trends were modelled using national vital statistics. Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed. In relation to the Cuban experience in 1980-2010, there is an association at the population level between weight reduction and death from diabetes and cardiovascular disease; the opposite effect on the diabetes and cardiovascular burden was seen on population-wide weight gain.

Global Synthesis of Common Era Hydroclimate using Water Isotope Proxies from Multiple Archives: First Results from the PAGES Iso2k Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B. L.; Partin, J. W.; Conroy, J. L.; Fischer, M.; Jones, M.; Jonkers, L.; McKay, N.; Stevenson, S.; Thompson, D. M.; Tyler, J. J.; Churakova (Sidorova), O.; Comas-Bru, L.; Dassie, E. P.; Dee, S.; DeLong, K. L.; Falster, G.; Martrat, B.

2017-12-01

Global, multi-proxy paleoclimate data syntheses for the Common Era (CE) have revealed a long-term cooling over the past millennium followed by a recent warming, with possible multi-decadal to centennial temperature variability in some regions. However, changes in atmospheric-oceanic circulation or hydroclimate have yet to be assessed on a global scale. Excellently suited to this purpose are proxies for the δ18O and δD of environmental waters found in glacier and ground ice, speleothems, corals, tree rings, and lake and marine sediments, which track common signals related to circulation and hydroclimate. Here, we utilize the new PAGES Iso2k database, a global compilation of CE δ18O and δD records, to investigate spatiotemporal variability and secular trends in global hydroclimate during the past 2 kyr. Overall, subtle but robust circulation shifts are apparent during the CE. We find preliminary evidence for secular trends in δ18O of lake water, precipitation/soil water, and seawater, with the direction and magnitude of trends varying by the type of environmental water (e.g., precipitation vs. seawater) and by region. We also find evidence for centennial-scale variations in regional δ18O and δD, for example a basin-wide Atlantic δ18Oseawater anomaly emerging during the 18th century and possible freshening of the western Pacific during the 20th century. On land, latitudinal trends in mean CE δ18Olake are consistent with present day gradients of δ18Oprecipitation, with evaporation exerting additional strong influence at mid-latitudes. In the ocean, coral δ18O in the western equatorial Pacific is found to reflect salinity rather than (or in addition to) temperature, providing potential quantitative constraints on past moisture balance from corals. We evaluate the dynamics of these spatiotemporal patterns through comparison with isotope-enabled model simulations, discuss relevant climatic inferences, and reexamine proxy interpretations.

Bacterial meningitis in Finland, 1995–2014: a population-based observational study

PubMed Central

Polkowska, Aleksandra; Toropainen, Maija; Ollgren, Jukka; Lyytikäinen, Outi; Nuorti, J. Pekka

2017-01-01

Objectives Bacterial meningitis remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Its epidemiological characteristics, however, are changing due to new vaccines and secular trends. Conjugate vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae (10-valent) were introduced in 1986 and 2010 in Finland. We assessed the disease burden and long-term trends of five common causes of bacterial meningitis in a population-based observational study. Methods A case was defined as isolation of S. pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus agalactiae, Listeria monocytogenes or H. influenzae from cerebrospinal fluid and reported to national, population-based laboratory surveillance system during 1995–2014. We evaluated changes in incidence rates (Poisson or negative binomial regression), case fatality proportions (χ2) and age distribution of cases (Wilcoxon rank-sum). Results During 1995–2014, S. pneumoniae and N. meningitidis accounted for 78% of the total 1361 reported bacterial meningitis cases. H. influenzae accounted for 4% of cases (92% of isolates were non-type b). During the study period, the overall rate of bacterial meningitis per 1 00 000 person-years decreased from 1.88 cases in 1995 to 0.70 cases in 2014 (4% annual decline (95% CI 3% to 5%). This was primarily due to a 9% annual reduction in rates of N. meningitidis (95% CI 7% to 10%) and 2% decrease in S. pneumoniae (95% CI 1% to 4%). The median age of cases increased from 31 years in 1995–2004 to 43 years in 2005–2014 (p=0.0004). Overall case fatality proportion (10%) did not change from 2004 to 2009 to 2010–2014. Conclusions Substantial decreases in bacterial meningitis were associated with infant conjugate vaccination against pneumococcal meningitis and secular trend in meningococcal meningitis in the absence of vaccination programme. Ongoing epidemiological surveillance is needed to identify trends, evaluate serotype distribution, assess vaccine impact and develop future vaccination strategies. PMID:28592578

Sulfate Aerosol Control of Tropical Atlantic Climate over the Twentieth Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chang, C.-Y.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Wehner, M. F.; Friedman, A. R.; Ruedy, R.

2011-01-01

The tropical Atlantic interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperature significantly influences the rainfall climate of the tropical Atlantic sector, including droughts over West Africa and Northeast Brazil. This gradient exhibits a secular trend from the beginning of the twentieth century until the 1980s, with stronger warming in the south relative to the north. This trend behavior is on top of a multi-decadal variation associated with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. A similar long-term forced trend is found in a multimodel ensemble of forced twentieth-century climate simulations. Through examining the distribution of the trend slopes in the multimodel twentieth-century and preindustrial models, the authors conclude that the observed trend in the gradient is unlikely to arise purely from natural variations; this study suggests that at least half the observed trend is a forced response to twentieth-century climate forcings. Further analysis using twentieth-century single-forcing runs indicates that sulfate aerosol forcing is the predominant cause of the multimodel trend. The authors conclude that anthropogenic sulfate aerosol emissions, originating predominantly from the Northern Hemisphere, may have significantly altered the tropical Atlantic rainfall climate over the twentieth century

Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009.

PubMed

Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

2015-04-01

We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

The diagonalization of cubic matrices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cocolicchio, D.; Viggiano, M.

2000-08-01

This paper is devoted to analysing the problem of the diagonalization of cubic matrices. We extend the familiar algebraic approach which is based on the Cardano formulae. We rewrite the complex roots of the associated resolvent secular equation in terms of transcendental functions and we derive the diagonalizing matrix.

Secular trends in height and weight among children and adolescents of the Seychelles, 1956-2006.

PubMed

Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Madeleine, George; Romain, Sarah; Gabriel, Anne; Bovet, Pascal

2008-05-19

Height of individuals has long been considered as a significant index of nutrition and health of a population; still, there is little information regarding the trends of height and weight among developing or transitional countries. We assessed the secular trends in height and weight in children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing island state in the Indian Ocean (African region). Height and weight were measured in all students of all schools in four selected school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th and 10th grades) for the periods 1998-9 (6391 children) and 2005-6 (8582 children). Data for 1956-7 was extracted from a previously published report. At age 15.5 years, boys/girls were on average 10/13 cm taller and 15/9 kg heavier in 2005-6 than in 1956-7. Height increased in boys/girls by 1.62/0.93 cm/decade between 1956-7 and 1998-9 and by 1.14/1.82 cm/decade between 1998-9 and 2005-6. For weight, the linear increase in boys/girls was 1.38/1.10 kg/decade between 1956-7 and 1998-9 and 2.21/2.50 kg/decade between 1998-9 and 2005-6. Overall, the relative increase in weight between 1956-7 and 2005-6 was 5-fold higher than the relative increase in height. Height and weight increased markedly over time in children aged <16 years in the Seychelles, consistent with large changes in socio-economic and nutritional indicators in the considered 50-year interval. The markedly steeper increase in weight than height over time is consistent with an epidemic of overweight and obesity.

An Ecologic Study of Trends in the Prevalence of Myopia in Chinese Adults in Singapore Born from the 1920s to 1980s.

PubMed

Sensaki, Sonoko; Sabanayagam, Charumathi; Verkicharla, Pavan K; Awodele, Adeola; Tan, Kok Hian; Chia, Audrey; Saw, Seang Mei

2017-06-01

This study aimed to investigate secular trends in the prevalence of myopia over 6 decades (from the 1920s to 1980s) in Chinese adults in Singapore. Parental myopia prevalence was estimated using a parent-completed questionnaire in paediatric cohorts that included: 1) The Singapore Cohort Of Risk factors for Myopia (SCORM), 2) The Strabismus, Amblyopia and Refractive Error in Singaporean Children (STARS), and 3) The Growing Up in Singapore Towards healthy Outcomes (GUSTO). Published estimates for myopia prevalence from 5 adult studies in Singapore were reviewed. Secular trends in the prevalence of myopia were correlated with changes in the education system. The prevalence of parental myopia in SCORM (n = 2943), STARS (n = 4938), and GUSTO (n = 1072) was 47.8%, 53.4%, and 73.4%, respectively; corresponding calendar years these parents might have started schooling were 1966, 1973, and 1983 (born in 1960, 1967, and 1977), respectively. Mean age of parents was 41.3, 40.1, and 33.4 years, respectively. Prevalence of myopia in adult studies in persons who started elementary school in 1928, 1934, 1938, 1939, 1942, 1948, 1952, 1958, 1962, 1972, 1982, and 1995 were 36.4%, 39.7%, 30.0%, 31.5%, 33.0%, 26.4%, 32.5%, 48.7%, 39.4%, 52.0%, 82.2%, and 85.9%, respectively. During the past few decades, the prevalence of myopia increased rapidly, especially in persons who started elementary school after the 1980s (born after 1970). The education system was expanded after Singapore's independence in 1965, and the new education system was introduced in 1978. These changes, together with increasing intensive schooling, may have contributed to the increase in myopia prevalence.

Secular trends in regional differences in nutritional biomarkers and self-reported dietary intakes among American adults: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1988-1994 to 2009-2010.

PubMed

Kant, Ashima K; Graubard, Barry I

2018-04-01

To understand the contribution of regional differentials in dietary exposures to regional gradients in health, we examined 20-year trends in the association of US census region of residence with nutritional biomarkers and dietary intakes of American adults. Observational. The biomarker and 24 h dietary recall data were from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) conducted during 1988-1994 and 1999-2010. The US census region was operationalized as Northeast, Midwest, South and West. Nutritional biomarker outcomes were serum folate, vitamins B6, B12, C, D and E, and carotenoids; dietary outcomes were intakes of nutrients, food groups and eating patterns. US adults, n>8000-40 000 for biomarkers and >43 000 for dietary outcomes. The interactions of survey time period and region were not significant for the examined biomarker and dietary outcomes, indicating similar secular trends among regions. The main effect of region was significant for all nutritional biomarkers except serum vitamin B6, most dietary micronutrients, food groups and eating patterns (P<0·001). The mean serum folate, vitamins B12, C and E, and all carotenoid (except lycopene) biomarker levels, and intakes of dietary fibre, vitamins A, E, C and B6, folate, K, Ca, Mg and Fe, fruits, vegetables and whole grains, were higher in the West and Northeast regions, relative to the South and Midwest regions. Overall, the regional gradients in dietary exposure, expressed objectively as biomarkers or as self-reported nutrient and food group intakes, paralleled trajectories reported for health outcomes and were remarkably persistent over time.

Changes in cardiovascular disease knowledge and behavior in a low-education population of African-American and white adults.

PubMed

Smith, N L; Croft, J B; Heath, G W; Cokkinides, V

1996-01-01

Racial differences in secular changes in cardiovascular disease risk factor knowledge and behaviors were assessed among adults with low levels of education throughout a community-wide cardiovascular disease prevention program. Four independent cross-sectional telephone surveys were conducted with the random-digit-dialing technique in 1987, 1988, 1989, and 1991 in a biracial South Carolina community. Community-wide cardiovascular disease intervention programs were initiated in 1988 and continued through 1990. Changes in the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factor knowledge, dietary fat intake, leisure-time physical activity, smoking, and cholesterol screening behavior were compared between African-American and white respondents in a population subset with less than 12 years of education using analysis of covariance regression techniques. Mean intake of high fat foods was lower in 1991 than in 1987 among both white and African-American respondents; the trend for lower mean intake began in 1989 among African-American adults. Prevalence of the correct exercise knowledge was higher in 1988 than in 1987 for both groups, but this trend was maintained only among white respondents. However, prevalence of leisure-time physical activity did not change significantly between 1987 and 1991. Prevalence of cholesterol level knowledge and screening behavior increased over time among both groups; however, greater increasing trends between 1987 and 1991 were observed among white adults. Favorable secular changes in fat intake, exercise knowledge, cholesterol level knowledge, and cholesterol screening behavior were observed among both race groups during a time period that coincided with community-wide intervention efforts and messages. Greater changes in most of these behaviors and knowledge were observed among white adults suggesting that health behavior messages may not have reached all segments of this community.

The Darwin TCCON Site - CO2 Calibration and First Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deutscher, N. M.; Griffith, D. W.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Toon, G. C.

2007-12-01

This paper presents the first measurements from the solar observatory deployed to Darwin, Australia in August 2005. The observatory is the second dedicated instrument in the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The first two years of column values are presented, as well as comparison to integrated in situ aircraft profiles obtained during the Tropical Warm Pool - International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) in January - February 2006. Sites in TCCON will provide ground-based validation and calibration for upcoming space-based instruments, such as the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) and Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), which measure the same atmospheric quantities. The TCCON stations are calibrated against integrated columns measured from aircraft by instruments calibrated on the accepted WMO CO2 scale. Two CO2 microwindows are calibrated independently, and the correction factors are determined to be 1.0143 ± 0.0004 (fit ± 95% confidence interval) and 1.0152 ± 0.0003, respectively, for the 6228 cm-1 and 6348 cm-1 bands. These values are in good agreement with similar comparisons made at Park Falls, and show an improvement in the absolute calibration, due to improved CO2 line parameters. The first two years of CO2 data from the solar FTS are analysed for secular and seasonal trends in the column average mixing ratio. These are compared to some surface in situ data trends for the same period. The column data capture the secular trend as observed in surface in situ measurements, however, the seasonal cycle is dampened relative to the surface data illustrating the need for high precision measurements, but also the potential to remove rectifier effects.

Secular trends of obesity in Iran between 1999 and 2007: National Surveys of Risk Factors of Non-communicable Diseases.

PubMed

Esteghamati, Alireza; Khalilzadeh, Omid; Mohammad, Kazem; Meysamie, Alipasha; Rashidi, Armin; Kamgar, Mandana; Abbasi, Mehrshad; Asgari, Fereshteh; Haghazali, Mehrdad

2010-06-01

Obesity is a rapidly progressing pandemic and a central feature of the metabolic syndrome. There is no solid evidence on the recent trends of obesity in Iran. In this study we present the secular trends of overweight and obesity among Iranian adults (25-64 years old) within an 8-year period (1999-2007). The analyses were performed on the datasets of three cross-sectional national surveys: The National Health Survey-1999 (n = 21,576), National Surveys of Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases (SuRFNCD)-2005 (n = 70,945), and SuRFNCD-2007 (n = 4,186). The overall prevalence of obesity increased from 13.6% in 1999 to 19.6% in 2005 and 22.3% in 2007 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.08 per year; P < 0.001]. For overweight subjects, the rates were, respectively, 32.2%, 35.8% and 36.3% (OR = 1.02 per year; P < 0.001). During these years, the mean body mass index (BMI) (kg/m(2)) increased from 25.03 in 1999, to 26.14 in 2005, and 26.47 and 2007 (P < 0.001). The increase in prevalence of obesity was seen in both males (OR = 1.09 per year; P < 0.001) and females (OR = 1.07 per year; P < 0.001) and both urban (OR = 1.07 per year; P < 0.001) and rural (OR = 1.10 per year; P < 0.001) residents. In conclusion, the present study highlighted the rapid growth of obesity during recent years in Iran. Our findings indicate the crucial necessity of primary prevention programs to counteract this undesired condition.

Secular resonances. [of asteroidal dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scholl, H.; Froeschle, CH.; Kinoshita, H.; Yoshikawa, M.; Williams, J. G.

1989-01-01

Theories and numerical experiments regarding secular resonances are reviewed. The basic dynamics and the positions of secular resonances are discussed, and secular perturbation theories for the nu16 resonance case, the nu6 resonance, and the nu5 resonance are addressed. What numerical experiments have revealed about asteroids located in secular resonances, the stability of secular resonances, variations of eccentricities and inclinations, and chaotic orbits is considered. Resonant transport of meteorites is discussed.

Simultaneous stochastic inversion for geomagnetic main field and secular variation. I - A large-scale inverse problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloxham, Jeremy

1987-01-01

The method of stochastic inversion is extended to the simultaneous inversion of both main field and secular variation. In the present method, the time dependency is represented by an expansion in Legendre polynomials, resulting in a simple diagonal form for the a priori covariance matrix. The efficient preconditioned Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno algorithm is used to solve the large system of equations resulting from expansion of the field spatially to spherical harmonic degree 14 and temporally to degree 8. Application of the method to observatory data spanning the 1900-1980 period results in a data fit of better than 30 nT, while providing temporally and spatially smoothly varying models of the magnetic field at the core-mantle boundary.

Persistent high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in the urban middle class in India: Jaipur Heart Watch-5.

PubMed

Gupta, Rajeev; Sharma, K K; Gupta, Arvind; Agrawal, Aachu; Mohan, Indu; Gupta, V P; Khedar, R S; Guptha, Soneil

2012-03-01

Urban subjects have high burden of cardiovascular risk factors, therefore, to evaluate risk factors in middle socioeconomic subjects and to study secular trends we performed an epidemiological study. The study was performed at urban middle class locations defined according to municipal records in years 2009-10. Stratified random sampling using house-to-house survey was performed. Details of medical history, anthropometry and clinical examination were recorded and biochemical tests performed for estimation of fasting glucose and lipids. Current definitions were used for risk factor classification. Descriptive statistics are provided. Trends were calculated using ANOVA or Mantel Haenszel chi-square. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess risk factor determinants. To determine secular trends we compared risk factors with previous cross-sectional studies performed in same locations in years 2002-3 and 2004-5 in subjects 20-59 years age. We evaluated 739 subjects (men 451, women 288, response 67%). Age-adjusted prevalence (%) of risk factors in men and women respectively was smoking 95 (21.1) and 12 (4.2), low physical activity 316 (69.6) and 147 (52.3), high fat intake > or = 20 gm/day 278 (73.4) and 171 (68.7), low fruits and vegetables intake < 3 helpings/day 249 (70.3) and 165 (76.4), overweight/obesity 205 (46.2) and 142 (50.7), high waist size 58 (12.9) and 76 (26.6), high waist:hip 143 (31.9) and 154 (53.9), hypertension 177 (39.5) and 71 (24.6), high total cholesterol > or = 200 mg/ dl 148 (33.0) and 93 (32.7), low HDL cholesterol < 40/50 mg/dl 113 (25.1) and 157 (55.3), diabetes 62 (15.5) and 25 (10.8) and metabolic syndrome 109 (25.1) and 61 (22.0). Age-associated increase was observed in body mass index, waist size, waist ratio:hip, systolic blood pressure and fasting and total cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol and triglycerides in women (Ptrend < 0.01). Age related increase was also observed in prevalence of obesity, truncal obesity, hypertension, diabetes and metabolic syndrome (Ptrend < 0.01). On univariate analysis significant determinants of risk factors were low educational and socioeconomic status for smoking, high fat diet for obesity and hypertension, low fruits and vegetables intake for metabolic syndrome, and low physical activity or obesity but on age-and sex-adjusted multivariate analysis only association was high fat diet with obesity and hypertension (logistic regression analysis p < 0.05). Compared to studies performed at similar locations in years 2002-03 and 2005-06 there was increasing trend in prevalence of high non-HDL cholesterol and hypertriglyceridemia (Ptrend < 0.05) while other risk factors did not change significantly. There is a high prevalence of multiple cardiovascular risk factors in Indian middle class individuals. Secular trends demonstrate a persistent high prevalence and increasing non-HDL cholesterol and triglycerides over 8-year period.

Association of school performance indicators with implementation of the healthy kids, smart kids programme: case study.

PubMed

Nansel, Tonja R; Huang, Terry T K; Rovner, Alisha J; Sanders-Butler, Yvonne

2010-01-01

The purpose of the present analysis was to examine secular trends in school performance indicators in relationship to the implementation of a programme targeting the school food and physical activity environment. Data on available school performance indicators were obtained; retrospective analyses were conducted to assess trends in indicators in association with programme implementation; each outcome was regressed v. year, beginning with the year prior to programme implementation. The Healthy Kids, Smart Kids programme, a grass-roots effort to enhance the school food and physical activity environment in the Browns Mill Elementary School in Georgia. Data included publicly available school records from the years 1995 to 2006. The number of nurse, counselling and disciplinary referrals per 100 students demonstrated a downward trend, while standardized test scores demonstrated an upward trend beginning in the year of programme implementation. School year was a significant predictor of all indicators. Promoting nutrition and physical activity within the school environment may be a promising approach for enhancing both student health and educational outcomes.

Sea level rise at Honolulu and Hilo, Hawaii: GPS estimates of differential land motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caccamise, Dana J.; Merrifield, Mark A.; Bevis, Michael; Foster, James; Firing, Yvonne L.; Schenewerk, Mark S.; Taylor, Frederick W.; Thomas, Donald A.

2005-02-01

Since 1946, sea level at Hilo on the Big Island of Hawaii has risen an average of 1.8 +/- 0.4 mm/yr faster than at Honolulu on the island of Oahu. This difference has been attributed to subsidence of the Big Island. However, GPS measurements indicate that Hilo is sinking relative to Honolulu at a rate of -0.4 +/- 0.5 mm/yr, which is too small to account for the difference in sea level trends. In the past 30 years, there has been a statistically significant reduction in the relative sea level trend. While it is possible that the rates of land motion have changed over this time period, the available hydrographic data suggest that interdecadal variations in upper ocean temperature account for much of the differential sea level signal between the two stations, including the recent trend change. These results highlight the challenges involved in estimating secular sea level trends in the presence of significant low frequency variability.

The three principal secular resonances nu(5), nu(6), and nu(16) in the asteroidal belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froeschle, Ch.; Scholl, H.

1989-09-01

Theoretical and numerical results obtained for secular resonant motion in the asteroidal belt are reviewed. William's (1969) theory yields the locations of the principal secular resonances nu(5), Nu(6), and nu(16) in the asteroidal belt. Theories by Nakai and Kinoshita (1985) and by Yoshikawa (1987) make it possible to model the basic features of orbital evolution at the secular resonances nu(16) and nu(6), respectively. No theory is available for the secular resonance nu(5). Numerical experiments by Froeschle and Scholl yield quantitative and new qualitative results for orbital evolutions at the three principal secular resonances nu(5), nu(6), and nu(16). These experiments indicate possible chaotic motion due to overlapping resonances. A secular resonance may overlap with another secular resonance or with a mean motion resonance. The role of the secular resonances as possible sources of meteorites is discussed.

Compliance of Ultra-Orthodox and secular pedestrians with traffic lights in Ultra-Orthodox and secular locations.

PubMed

Rosenbloom, Tova; Shahar, Amit; Perlman, Amotz

2008-11-01

Following a previous study that revealed the disobedience of Ultra-Orthodox citizens, as compared to secular citizens, of traffic lights at crosswalks, the present study examined the road habits of 995 Ultra-Orthodox and secular pedestrians in neighboring Ultra-Orthodox and secular cities. Using an observation grid designed specially for this study, the pedestrians were observed at two crosswalks--one in an Ultra-Orthodox city and one in a secular city--as far as similar traffic parameters, using a logistic regression. The tendency to cross on a red light was assessed as a function of estimated age, gender, religiosity, location (religious/secular), the duration of the red light, the number of vehicles crossing and the number of pedestrians waiting at the curb. Ultra-Orthodox pedestrians committed more violations than secular pedestrians did, and there were more road violations in the Ultra-Orthodox location than there were in the secular location. Fewer traffic violations were committed by "local" pedestrians (Ultra-Orthodox pedestrians in the Ultra-Orthodox location and secular pedestrians in the secular location) than by "foreigners" (Ultra-Orthodox pedestrians in the secular location and secular pedestrians in the Ultra-Orthodox location). The odds of crossing on a red light decreased as a function of both the number of people waiting at the curb and the number of vehicles. Consistent with previous research, males crossed on red much more than females did, regardless of religiosity and location. Our discussion focuses on theoretical and practical explanations of the findings.

A Participating Society; A Book of Current Knowledge and Interests, 1970.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Adult School Union, London (England).

This annual British handbook provides guidelines for adult study and group discussion of numerous religious and secular topics, such as authority; nonconformity; violence and aggression; laymen in the Church; social problems; drama, poetry, and music; the art of Rembrandt; contemporary China; Tanzania; football (soccer) in British life; the…

Recent Mortality Patterns Associated With Economic Development in Eastern Europe and the USSR

PubMed Central

Cooper, Richard; Sempos, Christopher

1984-01-01

Adult male mortality has turned sharply upward in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. Excluding the German Democratic Republic, for which data are not available, agestandardized death rates for men aged 40 to 69 years increased an average of 12 percent from the early 1960s to the mid-1970s. These secular trends were associated with consistent economic growth. At least for adult men, this period of social development has led to a marked deterioration in health. PMID:6708124

Geomagnetic Secular Variation Prediction with Thermal Heterogeneous Boundary Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuang, W.; Tangborn, A.; Jiang, W.

2011-12-01

It has long been conjectured that thermal heterogeneity at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) affects the geodynamo substantially. The observed two pairs of steady and strong magnetic flux lobes near the Polar Regions and the low secular variation in the Pacific over the past 400 years (and perhaps longer) are likely the consequences of this CMB thermal heterogeneity. There are several studies on the impact of the thermal heterogeneity with numerical geodynamo simulations. However, direct correlation between the numerical results and the observations is found very difficult, except qualitative comparisons of certain features in the radial component of the magnetic field at the CMB. This makes it difficult to assess accurately the impact of thermal heterogeneity on the geodynamo and the geomagnetic secular variation. We revisit this problem with our MoSST_DAS system in which geomagnetic data are assimilated with our geodynamo model to predict geomagnetic secular variations. In this study, we implement a heterogeneous heat flux across the CMB that is chosen based on the seismic tomography of the lowermost mantle. The amplitude of the heat flux (relative to the mean heat flux across the CMB) varies in the simulation. With these assimilation studies, we will examine the influences of the heterogeneity on the forecast accuracies, e.g. the accuracies as functions of the heterogeneity amplitude. With these, we could be able to assess the model errors to the true core state, and thus the thermal heterogeneity in geodynamo modeling.

Apocalypticism in Secular Public Discourse: A Proposed Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mixon, Harold; Hopkins, Mary Frances

1989-01-01

Examines Biblical apocalyptic theory and secular apocalyptic literature. Proposes a new theory of apocalypticism in secular public discourse derived from those two major theories. Provides examples of apocalypticism in secular public discourse. (MM)

Generalized Hill-stability criteria for hierarchical three-body systems at arbitrary inclinations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grishin, Evgeni; Perets, Hagai B.; Zenati, Yossef; Michaely, Erez

2017-04-01

A fundamental aspect of the three-body problem is its stability. Most stability studies have focused on the co-planar three-body problem, deriving analytic criteria for the dynamical stability of such pro/retrograde systems. Numerical studies of inclined systems phenomenologically mapped their stability regions, but neither complement it by theoretical framework, nor provided satisfactory fit for their dependence on mutual inclinations. Here we present a novel approach to study the stability of hierarchical three-body systems at arbitrary inclinations, which accounts not only for the instantaneous stability of such systems, but also for the secular stability and evolution through Lidov-Kozai cycles and evection. We generalize the Hill-stability criteria to arbitrarily inclined triple systems, explain the existence of quasi-stable regimes and characterize the inclination dependence of their stability. We complement the analytic treatment with an extensive numerical study, to test our analytic results. We find excellent correspondence up to high inclinations (˜120°), beyond which the agreement is marginal. At such high inclinations, the stability radius is larger, the ratio between the outer and inner periods becomes comparable and our secular averaging approach is no longer strictly valid. We therefore combine our analytic results with polynomial fits to the numerical results to obtain a generalized stability formula for triple systems at arbitrary inclinations. Besides providing a generalized secular-based physical explanation for the stability of non-co-planar systems, our results have direct implications for any triple systems and, in particular, binary planets and moon/satellite systems; we briefly discuss the latter as a test case for our models.

Engelhardt and children: the failure of libertarian bioethics in pediatric interactions.

PubMed

Hanson, Stephen

2005-06-01

In Engelhardt's secular bioethics, moral obligations derive from contracts and agreements between rational persons, and no infants or children and few adolescents meet Engelhardt's requirements for being a rational person. This is a problem, as one cannot have any direct secular moral obligations toward nonpersons such as infants and adolescents. The Engelhardtian concepts of ownership, indenture, and social personhood, which are meant to allow the theory to accommodate children and adolescents adequately, fail to give an Engelhardtian any actual means of determining the right action to take in difficult cases, even on his or her own terms. Thus, the theory is incapable of determining the morally correct action to take in cases involving children and therefore is unhelpful in dealing with moral questions involving children.

A global analysis of the 1991 geomagnetic jerk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Michelis, Paola; Cafarella, Lili; Meloni, Antonio

2000-12-01

A recent examination of the geomagnetic annual mean values for the European magnetic observatories has shown the existence of a sudden change in the secular acceleration in about 1991 (Cafarella & Meloni 1995; Macmillan 1996). Using first differences of the Y (east geomagnetic field component) mean values from 74 observatories, the worldwide character of the 1991 impulse has been determined (De Michelis et al. 1998). Using data from 109 observatories widely distributed all over the world, the structure of the secular variation for the X (north) and Z (vertical) magnetic field intensities around 1990 was investigated, and evidence of this most recent jerk was found. External effects were removed from the annual mean data by comparing the long-term variations of the geomagnetic field components at individual observatories with the long-term variations of two geomagnetic indices, aa and Dst, and of a solar index, the Wolf number R. A careful analysis has been carried out on the amplitude of the external disturbance, on its dependence on latitude, and on the weights of the geomagnetic indices in the evaluation of the resulting external field. The secular variation has been evaluated from the corrected annual means. Around 1990, the secular variation can be fitted at many observatories by two straight lines with a sudden and marked change in slope. In this manner the jerk occurrence time and the intensity of the step in the second time derivative (ΔX'', ΔY'' and ΔZ'') were computed. Maps of ΔX'', ΔY'' and ΔZ'' provide information on the worldwide intensity distribution of the examined event. Maps of the jerk occurrence-time distributions are also given. The mean jerk occurrence time is 1990.1+/-0.6. Finally, a spherical harmonic analysis was used to complete the quantitative description of this phenomenon in order to study the trend of the energy density spectrum as a function of the harmonic degree n.

Body Size of Male Youth Soccer Players: 1978-2015.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Figueiredo, António J; Coelho-E-Silva, Manuel J

2017-10-01

Studies of the body size and proportions of athletes have a long history. Comparisons of athletes within specific sports across time, though not extensive, indicate both positive and negative trends. To evaluate secular variation in heights and weights of male youth soccer players reported in studies between 1978 and 2015. Reported mean ages, heights, and weights of male soccer players 9-18 years of age were extracted from the literature and grouped into two intervals: 1978-99 and 2000-15. A third-order polynomial was fitted to the mean heights and weights across the age range for each interval, while the Preece-Baines model 1 was fitted to the grand means of mean heights and mean weights within each chronological year to estimate ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity for each time interval. Third-order polynomials applied to all data points and estimates based on the Preece-Baines model applied to grand means for each age group provided similar fits. Both indicated secular changes in body size between the two intervals. Secular increases in height and weight between 1978-99 and 2000-15 were especially apparent between 13 and 16 years of age, but estimated ages at peak height velocity (13.01 and 12.91 years) and peak weight velocity (13.86 and 13.77 years) did not differ between the time intervals. Although the body size of youth soccer players increased between 1978-99 and 2000-15, estimated ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity did not change. The increase in height and weight likely reflected improved health and nutritional conditions, in addition to the selectivity of soccer reflected in systematic selection and retention of players advanced in maturity status, and exclusion of late maturing players beginning at about 12-13 years of age. Enhanced training programs aimed at the development of strength and power are probably an additional factor contributing to secular increases in body weight.

The influence of the great inequality on the secular disturbing function of the planetary system.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Musen, P.

1971-01-01

This paper derives the contribution by the great inequality to the secular disturbing function of the principal planets. Andoyer's expansion of the planetary disturbing function and von Zeipel's method of eliminating the periodic terms is employed; thereby, the corrected secular disturbing function for the planetary system is derived. The conclusion is drawn that the canonicity of the equations for the secular variation of the heliocentric elements can be preserved if there be retained, in the secular disturbing function, terms only of the second and fourth order relative to the eccentricity and inclinations. The Krylov-Bogoliubov method is suggested for eliminating periodic terms, if it is desired to include the secular perturbations of the fifth and higher order in the heliocentric elements. The additional part of the secular disturbing function derived in this paper can be included in existing theories of the secular effects of principal planets.

Carbon monoxide poisoning in Northeast of Iran.

PubMed

Khadem-Rezaiyan, M; Afshari, R

2016-07-01

CO poisoning is still a public health concern especially in developing countries. We aimed to focus on CO poisoning secular trends based on registry data for the recent 7 years in Northeast of Iran. Registry database of Imam Reza Hospital in Mashhad, Iran was analyzed. All admitted cases with CO exposure during 2004-2011 were included. Data from two national censuses were used for calculating rates. Data analyses was performed by SPSS 11.5. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. There were 443 CO related admissions (0.9% of all poisonings which equals to a prevalence rate of 1.9 per 100,000) during the 7-year period. Mean age was 32.3 ± 18.2 years and 60% of subjects were male. CO prevalence rate was not changed during this period. Case fatality rate was higher in men (5.4% vs. 4.4%). Self-employment and manual or office workers were at greatest risk. Age specific prevalence and mortality rates were highest in >60 age group. (2.9 and 3.1 per 100,000, respectively). As it seems that current health prevention studies are not effectively working, these secular trends can enlighten health policy makers to implement proper population based interventions like education or regulations for CO detectors. We believe that almost all cases of accidental CO poisoning can be prevented. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Genetic and environmental influences on growth.

PubMed

Rona, R J; Chinn, S

1995-01-01

To provide an overview of the factors associated with growth in primary school children in England and Scotland and to provide information about the secular trend of growth in the last 20 years. Representative English and Scottish samples and an English inner city sample. The study had a mixed longitudinal design from 1972 to 1994. Between 8000 and 10,000 children participated in each survey. Height was measured in at least 95% of the children in most surveys, and 75% to 85% of parents provided information about family background. Main results are based on published information. Multiple regression was used for most of the analyses. Parents' height, child's birth weight, mother's age at child's delivery, ethnic background and, in white children, family size are the only factors markedly associated with height. Variables that have traditionally been used to assess the possible effect of social conditions were generally not associated with height. The height increase was more marked in Scotland than England over the period 1972 to 1990, and the differences in height of children in the two countries is now minimal. Most factors cannot be neatly classified as purely genetic or environmental, but seem to indicate that genes are relatively more important. Social factors usually assessed in growth studies do not have an important effect on growth. The marked increase of height over time indicates that the environment and social conditions have allowed children to grow taller. Sibship size is the only factor that was shown to be related to the secular trend in growth.

Antiepileptic Drugs during Pregnancy in Primary Care: A UK Population Based Study

PubMed Central

Man, Shuk-Li; Petersen, Irene; Thompson, Mary; Nazareth, Irwin

2012-01-01

Objective Antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) are commonly prescribed for epilepsy and bipolar disorder but little is known about their use in pregnancy. We examined secular trends in AED prescribing in pregnancy and pregnancy as a determinant for stopping AED prescribing. Methods We identified 174,055 pregnancies from The Health Improvement Network UK primary care database. Secular trends in AED prescribing during pregnancy were examined between 1994 and 2009. We used Cox's regression analyses to compare time to discontinuation of AED prescriptions between pregnant and non-pregnant women and to identify predictors of discontinuation of AEDs in pregnancy. Results Prescribing of carbamazepine and sodium valproate have declined since 1994 despite being the most commonly prescribed AEDs in pregnancy up to 2004. Prescribing of lamotrigine in pregnancy has steadily increased and has been the most popular AED prescribed in pregnancy since 2004. Pregnant women with epilepsy were twice as likely to stop receiving AEDs (Hazard Ratio (HR) 2.00, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.62–2.47) when compared to non-pregnant women and for women with bipolar disorder this was even higher (HR 3.07, 95% CI 2.04–4.62). For pregnant women with epilepsy, those receiving AEDs less regularly before pregnancy were more likely to stop receiving AEDs in pregnancy. Conclusions Lamotrigine has been increasingly prescribed in pregnancy over older AEDs namely carbamazepine and sodium valproate. Pregnancy is a strong determinant for the discontinuation of AED prescribing particularly for women with bipolar disorder. PMID:23272239

Secular change in cardiorespiratory fitness of men: Cooper Center Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Willis, Benjamin L; Morrow, James R; Jackson, Allen W; Defina, Laura F; Cooper, Kenneth H

2011-11-01

Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) has been shown to be an independent predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, as well as health outcomes such as cardiovascular disease, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and metabolic syndrome. During the last four decades, national guidelines for physical activity and fitness have emerged in an ongoing effort to improve health outcomes through enhanced CRF risk profiles. The purpose of the study was to describe the secular trend in CRF as a function of decade and age in a large cohort of men during the past 40 yr. A cross-sectional analysis of baseline fitness data collected during comprehensive medical examinations of 52,785 men age 20-74 yr evaluated at the Cooper Clinic in Dallas, TX, from 1970 to 2009 who completed a maximum treadmill exercise test for estimation of aerobic capacity was conducted. Comparisons were made between mean fitness levels in each decade stratified by five age groups. Mean CRF in MET from estimated V·O 2max has increased overall approximately 1 MET during a 40-yr period for each of the five age groups (P < 0.0001). The greatest change occurred during the 1970s to 1980s with minimal subsequent increase and a small decline commencing in the last decade especially in younger men. In a large cohort of men, average CRF has improved during the last 40 yr with a slight decline in the favorable trend notable in the most recent decade.

Secular trends in family dinner frequency among adolescents.

PubMed

Walton, Kathryn; Kleinman, Ken P; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Horton, Nicholas J; Gillman, Matthew W; Field, Alison E; Austin, S Bryn; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Haines, Jess

2016-01-22

Eating meals, particularly dinner, with family members has been found to be associated with improved dietary intake, lower prevalence of disordered eating behaviors, lower levels of substance abuse, and improved academic outcomes among adolescents. Limited research has examined how the frequency of family meals has changed over time. The objective of this study was to examine secular trends in family dinner frequency over a 12-year period using a large, nation-wide sample of adolescents. Using data from two cohorts of the Growing up Today study (GUTS; n = 18,075 observations for 14,79,714 and 15 year olds), we compared family dinner frequency among 14-15-year-olds in 1996 (GUTS1) through 2008 (GUTS2) and rate of change in family dinner frequency from 1996 to 1998 (GUTS1) and 2004-2008 (GUTS2). We fit logistic models using generalized estimating equations with independence working correlation and empirical variance to account for correlation within individual and between siblings. From 1996 to 2008, the number of family dinners per week among males decreased from 5.3 to 4.6 (p = 0.04) and among females from 5.0 to 4.4 (p = 0.03). We found that the rate of decline in frequency of family meals was consistent in GUTS1 (1996-1998) and GUTS2 (2004-2008) among both males and females. From 1996 to 2008, frequency of family dinners decreased among adolescents. Future research should explore reasons for this decline as well as strategies to increase family meals among adolescents.

The National Veteran Sleep Disorder Study: Descriptive Epidemiology and Secular Trends, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Alexander, Melannie; Ray, Meredith A; Hébert, James R; Youngstedt, Shawn D; Zhang, Hongmei; Steck, Susan E; Bogan, Richard K; Burch, James B

2016-07-01

A large proportion of individuals affected by sleep disorders are untreated and susceptible to accidents, injuries, long-term sequelae (e.g., risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, psychiatric disorders), and increased mortality risk. Few studies have examined the scope and magnitude of sleep disorder diagnoses in the United States (US) or factors influencing them. Veterans are particularly vulnerable to factors that elicit or exacerbate sleep disorders. This serial cross-sectional study characterized secular trends in diagnosed sleep disorders among veterans seeking care in US Veterans Health Administration facilities over an eleven-year span (FY2000-2010, n = 9,786,778). Electronic medical records from the national Veterans Administration Informatics and Computing Infrastructure database were accessed. Cases were defined using diagnostic codes specified by the American Academy of Sleep Medicine. Age-adjusted annual prevalence was summarized by sex, race, combat exposure, body mass index, and comorbid diagnoses (cardiovascular disease, cancer, mental disorders). Sleep apnea (47%) and insomnia (26%) were the most common diagnoses among patients with any sleep disorder. There was a six-fold relative increase in total sleep disorder prevalence over the study period. Posttraumatic stress disorder, which tripled over the same time period, was associated with the highest prevalence of sleep disorders (16%) among the comorbid conditions evaluated. The results indicate a growing need for integration of sleep disorder management with patient care and health care planning among US veterans. A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1331. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Teamwork in Secular and Faith-Based Organizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grant, Arnold R.

2007-01-01

The word "teamwork" has become a favorite of corporate leaders; however, many employees view "teamwork" as a word devoid of meaning. Part of the problem is that "teamwork" has an entirely different meaning to people at various levels in an organization, and this prevents individuals and different departments within a company from moving forward…

The Unfriendly Agora and Secular Hypocrisy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Felderhof, Marius C.

2008-01-01

This article seeks to commend Professor Trigg on his exposure of the warped thinking and policy-making concerning religious life and its institutions in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. However, it challenges the view that the problems he has identified are best linked to deep philosophical and metaphysical positions (e.g. relativism, non-realism…

Religion and Education: A Human Rights Dilemma Illustrated by the Recent "Headscarf Cases"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rhona K. M.

2007-01-01

Education and religion are indelibly linked: cultural precepts underpin education policies within the formal State education system, while education has a clear role to play in promoting tolerance. Clashes between religious beliefs and secular education pose problems for states as the current array of jurisprudence, particularly on Islamic dress…

Trends in fall-related hospital admissions in older persons in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Hartholt, Klaas A; van der Velde, Nathalie; Looman, Caspar W N; van Lieshout, Esther M M; Panneman, Martien J M; van Beeck, Ed F; Patka, Peter; van der Cammen, Tischa J M

2010-05-24

Fall-related injuries, hospitalizations, and mortality among older persons represent a major public health problem. Owing to aging societies worldwide, a major impact on fall-related health care demand can be expected. We determined time trends in numbers and incidence of fall-related hospital admissions and in admission duration in older adults. Secular trend analysis of fall-related hospital admissions in the older Dutch population from 1981 through 2008, using the National Hospital Discharge Registry. All fall-related hospital admissions in persons 65 years or older were extracted from this database. Outcome measures were the numbers, and the age-specific and age-adjusted incidence rates (per 10,000 persons) of fall-related hospital admissions in each year of the study. From 1981 through 2008, fall-related hospital admissions increased by 137%. The annual age-adjusted incidence growth was 1.3% for men vs 0.7% for women (P < .001). The overall incidence rate increased from 87.7 to 141.2 per 10,000 persons (an increase of 61%). Age-specific incidence increased in all age groups, in both men and women, especially in the oldest old (>75 years). Although the incidence of fall-related hospital admissions increased, the total number of fall-related hospital days was reduced by 20% owing to a reduction in admission duration. In the Netherlands, numbers of fall-related hospital admissions among older persons increased drastically from 1981 through 2008. The increasing fall-related health care demand has been compensated for by a reduced admission duration. These figures demonstrate the need for implementation of falls prevention programs to control for increases of fall-related health care consumption.

Fingerprints of Sea Level Rise on Changing Tides in the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Andrew C.; Najjar, Raymond G.; Li, Ming; Lee, Serena Blyth; Zhang, Fan; Liu, Wei

2017-10-01

Secular tidal trends are present in many tide gauge records, but their causes are often unclear. This study examines trends in tides over the last century in the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays. Statistical models show negative M2 amplitude trends at the mouths of both bays, while some upstream locations have insignificant or positive trends. To determine whether sea level rise is responsible for these trends, we include a term for mean sea level in the statistical models and compare the results with predictions from numerical and analytical models. The observed and predicted sensitivities of M2 amplitude and phase to mean sea level are similar, although the numerical model amplitude is less sensitive to sea level. The sensitivity occurs as a result of strengthening and shifting of the amphidromic system in the Chesapeake Bay and decreasing frictional effects and increasing convergence in the Delaware Bay. After accounting for the effect of sea level, significant negative background M2 and S2 amplitude trends are present; these trends may be related to other factors such as dredging, tide gauge errors, or river discharge. Projected changes in tidal amplitudes due to sea level rise over the 21st century are substantial in some areas, but depend significantly on modeling assumptions.

Invariant Tori in the Secular Motions of the Three-body Planetary Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Locatelli, Ugo; Giorgilli, Antonio

We consider the problem of the applicability of KAM theorem to a realistic problem of three bodies. In the framework of the averaged dynamics over the fast angles for the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system we can prove the perpetual stability of the orbit. The proof is based on semi-numerical algorithms requiring both explicit algebraic manipulations of series and analytical estimates. The proof is made rigorous by using interval arithmetics in order to control the numerical errors.

Nonsecular Medical Anthropology.

PubMed

Whitmarsh, Ian; Roberts, Elizabeth F S

2016-01-01

A nonsecular medical anthropology insists on the ways medicine and science have constituted 'the secular' itself through the 'secular self'-how medical knowing has been used to craft the secular political subject. As James Boon noted, too often in social theory, "religion gets safely tucked away-restricted theoretically to 'meaning' rather than power" (1998:245). The authors of the six articles in this special issue 'untuck' religiosity from within the norms and numbers of medicine itself, and examine how 'secular' medicine has relied on religious traditions to produce political secularity. These articles demonstrate that 'secular' medicine relies on religious others whose exclusion bespeaks latent religious commitments of citizenship in the modern political realm of health.

Association of school performance indicators with implementation of the Healthy Kids, Smart Kids program: case study

PubMed Central

Nansel, Tonja R.; Huang, Terry T.K.; Rovner, Alisha J.; Sanders-Butler, Yvonne

2009-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this analysis was to examine secular trends in school performance indicators in relationship to the implementation of a program targeting the school food and physical activity environment. Design: Data on available school performance indicators were obtained; retrospective analyses were conducted to assess trends in indicators in association with program implementation; each outcome was regressed on year, beginning with the year prior to program implementation. Setting: The Healthy Kids, Smart Kids program was a grass-roots effort to enhance the school food and physical activity environment in the Browns Mill Elementary School in Georgia. Subjects: Data included publicly available school records from the years 1995 to 2006. Results: The number of nurse, counseling, and disciplinary referrals per 100 students demonstrated a downward trend, while standardized test scores demonstrated an upward trend beginning the year of program implementation. School year was a significant predictor of all indicators. Conclusions: Promoting nutrition and physical activity within the school environment may be a promising approach for enhancing both student health and educational outcomes. PMID:19454125

Assessing Patterns of Change in Anthropometric Dimensions: Secular Trends of U.S. Army Females, 1946-1988

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-01

Pevdlct Amy’ wIz’u bod dlzmuiui valiues In the rner ftAbze. 14. SUBJECT TERMS ARMY PERSONNEL MODELS i 5 NUMBER OF PAGES ANTHROPOMETRY RACE( ANTHROPOLOGY...Distributions of Serial Changes in Stature and Weight in a Healthy Elderly Population. Human Biology 60:917-925. Clauser, CE, JT McConville, CC...MA Index in a British Cohort. Annals of Human Biology 16:1-8. Laubach, LL, JT McConville, E Churchill and RM White (1977a) Anthropometry of Women of

Secular resonances with Ceres and Vesta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsirvoulis, Georgios; Novaković, Bojan

2016-12-01

In this work we explore dynamical perturbations induced by the massive asteroids Ceres and Vesta on main-belt asteroids through secular resonances. First we determine the location of the linear secular resonances with Ceres and Vesta in the main belt, using a purely numerical technique. Then we use a set of numerical simulations of fictitious asteroids to investigate the importance of these secular resonances in the orbital evolution of main-belt asteroids. We found, evaluating the magnitude of the perturbations in the proper elements of the test particles, that in some cases the strength of these secular resonances is comparable to that of known non-linear secular resonances with the giant planets. Finally we explore the asteroid families that are crossed by the secular resonances we studied, and identified several cases where the latter seem to play an important role in their post-impact evolution.

Increasing trends of acute myocardial infarction in Spain: the MONICA-Catalonia Study.

PubMed

Sans, Susana; Puigdefábregas, Ana; Paluzie, Guillermo; Monterde, David; Balaguer-Vintró, Ignacio

2005-03-01

To assess coronary mortality and morbidity secular trends in Spain. Acute coronary events occurring in both sexes at ages 35-74 years between 1985 and 1997, were monitored in a geographical area of Catalonia, through a population-based registry. Information was collected from annual discharge lists of 78 hospitals and from death certificates, and validated following the methods and quality control of the World Health Organization MONItoring Trends and Determinants in CArdiovascular Disease Project (MONICA). Registration included 19 119 valid events (14 221 in men, 4898 in women) of which 30% were fatal and 41% were definite acute myocardial infarctions. Average attack rates were 315 per 100 000 (95% CI 300-329) and 80 (75-86) in men and women, respectively. Incidence (first-ever event) rates were 209 (194-224) and 56 (52-60) per 100 000. Attack rates increased annually by 2.1% (0.3-4.1) and 1.8% (-0.9 to +4.6). Average 28-day case fatality was 46% (44-47) in men decreasing significantly by 1.4 and 53% (51-55) in women with no change. Fatal trends remained stable. Nationwide morbidity statistics showed similar trends. Acute coronary syndromes are rising in Spanish men.

Education and Religion in Times of Secularization: Problems and Possibilities within the German Situation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schluss, Henning

2009-01-01

In the current climate of increasing alienation from religion, traditional concepts no longer suffice to explain the relation between education and religion. Thus, Religious Education needs to take on the task of reconceiving of this relation. This article looks specifically at Religious Education in Germany. The term religious literacy, which is…

Fluid flow near the surface of earth's outer core

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloxham, Jeremy; Jackson, Andrew

1991-01-01

This review examines the recent attempts at extracting information on the pattern of fluid flow near the surface of the outer core from the geomagnetic secular variation. Maps of the fluid flow at the core surface are important as they may provide some insight into the process of the geodynamo and may place useful constraints on geodynamo models. In contrast to the case of mantle convection, only very small lateral variations in core density are necessary to drive the flow; these density variations are, by several orders of magnitude, too small to be imaged seismically; therefore, the geomagnetic secular variation is utilized to infer the flow. As substantial differences exist between maps developed by different researchers, the possible underlying reasons for these differences are examined with particular attention given to the inherent problems of nonuniqueness.

Alcohol policy changes and 22-year trends in individual alcohol consumption in a Swiss adult population: a 1993-2014 cross-sectional population-based study.

PubMed

Dumont, Shireen; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Favrod-Coune, Thierry; Theler, Jean-Marc; Gaspoz, Jean-Michel; Broers, Barbara; Guessous, Idris

2017-03-15

Evidence on the impact of legislative changes on individual alcohol consumption is limited. Using an observational study design, we assessed trends in individual alcohol consumption of a Swiss adult population following the public policy changes that took place between 1993 and 2014, while considering individual characteristics and secular trends. Cross-sectional study. Swiss general adult population. Data from 18 963 participants were collected between 1993 and 2014 (aged 18-75 years). We used data from the 'Bus Santé' study, an annual health survey conducted in random samples of the adult population in the State of Geneva, Switzerland. Individual alcohol intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Individual characteristics including education were self-reported. 7 policy changes (6 about alcohol and 1 about tobacco) that occurred between 1993 and 2014 defined 6 different periods. We predicted alcohol intake using quantile regression with multivariate analysis for each period adjusting for participants' characteristics and tested significance periods. Sensitivity analysis was performed including drinkers only, the 10th centile of highest drinkers and smoker's status. Between 1993 and 2014, participants' individual alcohol intake decreased from 7.1 to 5.4 g/day (24% reduction, p<0.001). Men decreased their alcohol intake by 34% compared with 22% for women (p<0.001). The decrease in alcohol intake remained significant when considering drinkers only (28% decrease, p<0.001) and the 10th centile highest drinkers (24% decrease, p<0.001). Consumption of all alcoholic beverages decreased between 1993 and 2014 except for the moderate consumption of beer, which increased. After adjustment for participants' characteristics and secular trends, no independent association between alcohol legislative changes and individual alcohol intake was found. Between 1993 and 2014, alcohol consumption decreased in the Swiss adult population independently of policy changes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Implications of multi-scale sea level and climate variability for coastal resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karamperidou, Christina; Engel, Victor; Lall, Upmanu; Stabenau, Erik; Smith, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

While secular changes in regional sea levels and their implications for coastal zone management have been studied extensively, less attention is being paid to natural fluctuations in sea levels, whose interaction with a higher mean level could have significant impacts on low-lying areas, such as wetlands. Here, the long record of sea level at Key West, FL is studied in terms of both the secular trend and the multi-scale sea level variations. This analysis is then used to explore implications for the Everglades National Park (ENP), which is recognized internationally for its ecological significance, and is the site of the largest wetland restoration project in the world. Very shallow topographic gradients (3–6 cm per km) make the region susceptible to small changes in sea level. Observations of surface water levels from a monitoring network within ENP exhibit both the long-term trends and the interannual-to-(multi)decadal variability that are observed in the Key West record. Water levels recorded at four long-term monitoring stations within ENP exhibit increasing trends approximately equal to or larger than the long-term trend at Key West. Time- and frequency-domain analyses highlight the potential influence of climate mechanisms, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on Key West sea levels and marsh water levels, and the potential modulation of their influence by the background state of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures. In particular, the Key West sea levels are found to be positively correlated with the NAO index, while the two series exhibit high spectral power during the transition to a cold Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The correlation between the Key West sea levels and the NINO3 Index reverses its sign in coincidence with a reversal of the AMO phase. Water levels in ENP are also influenced by precipitation and freshwater releases from the northern boundary of the Park. The analysis of both climate variability and climate change in such wetlands is needed to inform management practices in coastal wetland zones around the world.

Trends in thoracic radiology over a decade at a large academic medical center.

PubMed

Wittram, Conrad; Meehan, Margaret J; Halpern, Elkan F; Shepard, Jo-Anne O; McLoud, Theresa C; Thrall, James H

2004-07-01

To investigate thoracic radiology usage over and above the secular trends associated with hospital-wide changes in the number of patients over a decade. We retrospectively reviewed administrative data from our 905-bed tertiary-care hospital between January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2001. Three points of entry to the radiology department were identified: inpatient (IP), outpatient (OP), and the emergency room (ER). The total numbers of patients, imaging studies, chest radiographs, chest CTs, CTs for pulmonary embolism, pulmonary angiograms, ventilation/perfusion scintigrams (V/Qs), lung biopsies, cardiac and chest MRIs, and FDG-PET scans for lung nodules and masses were collected. The significance of trends using linear regression analysis was evaluated. IP and OP numbers have significantly increased over a decade (P = 0.04 and P = 0.01 respectively); ER patient numbers have not. There has been an increase in the ratio of chest radiographs per patient arising from the ER area (P = 0.0002). All 3 areas demonstrated an increase in the ratio of chest CTs per patient: IP (P = 0.0002), OP (P = <0.0001), and ER (P = <0.0001). IP and ER areas demonstrated an increase in the ratio of CTs for pulmonary embolism per patient (P = 0.006, P = 0.04 respectively). There was a decrease in the ratios of pulmonary angiograms and V/Qs per IP (P = 0.02 & P = 0.0003 respectively). Cardiac MRIs per patient demonstrated an increase (IP P = 0.01, OP P = 0.02). FDG-PET for lung nodules and masses per patient demonstrated an increase in IP (P = 0.03) and OP (P = 0.003) areas. The total number of chest imaging studies divided by the total number of imaging studies demonstrated an increase in IP and ER areas (P = 0.02 and P = 0.02 respectively). There has been an increase in thoracic radiology usage above secular trends, particularly in the regions of chest CT and FDG-PET. CT is replacing more traditional techniques to diagnose pulmonary embolism for inpatients.

The evolution of the global selenium cycle: Secular trends in Se isotopes and abundances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stüeken, E. E.; Buick, R.; Bekker, A.; Catling, D.; Foriel, J.; Guy, B. M.; Kah, L. C.; Machel, H. G.; Montañez, I. P.; Poulton, S. W.

2015-08-01

The Earth's surface has undergone major transitions in its redox state over the past three billion years, which have affected the mobility and distribution of many elements. Here we use Se isotopic and abundance measurements of marine and non-marine mudrocks to reconstruct the evolution of the biogeochemical Se cycle from ∼3.2 Gyr onwards. The six stable isotopes of Se are predominantly fractionated during redox reactions under suboxic conditions, which makes Se a potentially valuable new tool for identifying intermediate stages from an anoxic to a fully oxygenated world. δ82/78Se shows small fractionations of mostly less than 2‰ throughout Earth's history and all are mass-dependent within error. In the Archean, especially after 2.7 Gyr, we find an isotopic enrichment in marine (+0.37 ± 0.27‰) relative to non-marine samples (-0.28 ± 0.67‰), paired with increasing Se abundances. Student t-tests show that these trends are statistically significant. Although we cannot completely rule out the possibility of volcanic Se addition, these trends may indicate the onset of oxidative weathering on land, followed by non-quantitative reduction of Se oxyanions during fluvial transport. The Paleoproterozoic Great Oxidation Event (GOE) is not reflected in the marine δ82/78Se record. However, we find a major inflection in the secular δ82/78Se trend during the Neoproterozoic, from a Precambrian mean of +0.42 ± 0.45‰ to a Phanerozoic mean of -0.19 ± 0.59‰. This drop probably reflects the oxygenation of the deep ocean at this time, stabilizing Se oxyanions throughout the water column. Since then, reduction of Se oxyanions has likely been restricted to anoxic basins and diagenetic environments in sediments. In light of recent Cr isotope data, it is likely that oxidative weathering before the Neoproterozoic produced Se oxyanions in the intermediate redox state SeIV, whereas the fully oxidized species SeVI became more abundant after the Neoproterozoic rise of atmospheric oxygen.

Bacterial meningitis in Finland, 1995-2014: a population-based observational study.

PubMed

Polkowska, Aleksandra; Toropainen, Maija; Ollgren, Jukka; Lyytikäinen, Outi; Nuorti, J Pekka

2017-06-06

Bacterial meningitis remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Its epidemiological characteristics, however, are changing due to new vaccines and secular trends. Conjugate vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae (10-valent) were introduced in 1986 and 2010 in Finland. We assessed the disease burden and long-term trends of five common causes of bacterial meningitis in a population-based observational study. A case was defined as isolation of S. pneumoniae , Neisseria meningitidis , Streptococcus agalactiae , Listeria monocytogenes or H. influenzae from cerebrospinal fluid and reported to national, population-based laboratory surveillance system during 1995-2014. We evaluated changes in incidence rates (Poisson or negative binomial regression), case fatality proportions (χ 2 ) and age distribution of cases (Wilcoxon rank-sum). During 1995-2014, S. pneumoniae and N. meningitidis accounted for 78% of the total 1361 reported bacterial meningitis cases. H. influenzae accounted for 4% of cases (92% of isolates were non-type b). During the study period, the overall rate of bacterial meningitis per 1 00 000 person-years decreased from 1.88 cases in 1995 to 0.70 cases in 2014 (4% annual decline (95% CI 3% to 5%). This was primarily due to a 9% annual reduction in rates of N. meningitidis (95% CI 7% to 10%) and 2% decrease in S. pneumoniae (95% CI 1% to 4%). The median age of cases increased from 31 years in 1995-2004 to 43 years in 2005-2014 (p=0.0004). Overall case fatality proportion (10%) did not change from 2004 to 2009 to 2010-2014. Substantial decreases in bacterial meningitis were associated with infant conjugate vaccination against pneumococcal meningitis and secular trend in meningococcal meningitis in the absence of vaccination programme. Ongoing epidemiological surveillance is needed to identify trends, evaluate serotype distribution, assess vaccine impact and develop future vaccination strategies. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Zurita-Milla, Raul; Weltzin, Jake F.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Trends and Natural Variability of Spring Onset in the Coterminous United States as Evaluated by a New Gridded Dataset of Spring Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ault, T.; Schwartz, M. D.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Weltzin, J. F.; Betancourt, J. L.

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous US. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from -0.8 to -1.6 days per decade, while first bloom index trends are between -0.4 and -1.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Finally, there is some potential for successful sub-seasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Preterm birth rates in Japan from 1979 to 2014: Analysis of national vital statistics.

PubMed

Sakata, Soyoko; Konishi, Shoko; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Watanabe, Chiho

2018-03-01

Secular trends of preterm birth in Japan between 1979 and 2014 were examined to determine whether changes could be explained by a shift in the distribution of maternal age at delivery and parity and/or by changes in age-specific preterm birth rates. Live birth data for 1979 to 2014 were obtained from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Analyses were limited to singleton children born in Japan (n = 43 632 786). Preterm birth was defined using two cut-offs at < 37 or < 34 weeks of gestation. Crude and standardized rates of preterm birth were calculated for firstborn and later-born singletons by maternal age at delivery for specific time periods. Throughout the study period, the rates of preterm birth (both at < 37 and < 34 weeks of gestation) were higher among mothers aged 20 and younger, and mid-30s and older, compared to mothers in their 20s or early 30s. The rates of preterm birth at < 37 (but not at < 34) weeks decreased for mothers aged in their late 30s and 40s, and increased for mothers in their 20s and early 30s. Standardized rates of preterm birth showed a secular increase for preterm births at < 37 but not < 34 weeks of gestation. The rates of preterm birth among mothers aged in their 20s and early 30s increased between 1979 and 2014, which contributed to the secular increase in rates of preterm birth at < 37 weeks. © 2017 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Triple Oxygen Isotope Constraints on Seawater δ18O and Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayles, J.; Shen, B.; Homann, M.; Yeung, L.

2017-12-01

One point of contention among geoscientists is whether the 18O/16O ratio of seawater is roughly constant, or if it varies considerably throughout geologic time. On one hand, the oxygen isotope composition of the ocean is thought to be well buffered by high- and low-temperature interactions between seawater and seafloor rocks. If these interactions do not vary on billion-year timescales, the oxygen-isotope compositions of marine sedimentary rocks mostly relate to changes in seawater temperature and global ice volume. On the other hand, long-term cooling of the planetary interior would alter these water-rock interactions leading to a secular change in the oxygen isotope composition of seawater. Models suggest that this secular change would enrich seawater with heavy oxygen isotopes over time. In this study, we present new, high precision, triple-oxygen-isotope (18O/16O, 17O/16O) analyses of marine chert samples from 3.45 Ga to 460Ma. The results of these analyses are paired with a new theoretical quartz-water equilibrium curve and a simplified seawater model to provide possible pairings of δ'18O and Δ'17O for the water which these samples could have formed in equilibrium with. Analysis of the new sample data, in addition to published chert triple oxygen isotope compositions, shows a general trend of older chert samples being progressively incompatible with waters possessing a modern-like seawater triple oxygen isotope composition. Implications on constraining the secular evolution of seawater δ18O and temperature will be discussed.

Does the prescriptive lifestyle of Seventh-day Adventists provide 'immunity' from the secular effects of changes in BMI?

PubMed

Kent, Lillian M; Worsley, Anthony

2009-04-01

To examine the effect of Seventh-day Adventist (SDA) membership on 'immunity' to the secular effects of changes in BMI. Three independent, cross-sectional, screening surveys conducted by Sydney Adventist Hospital in 1976, 1986 and 1988 and a survey conducted among residents of Melbourne in 2006. Two hundred and fifty-two SDA and 464 non-SDA in 1976; 166 SDA and 291 non-SDA in 1986; 120 SDA and 300-non SDA in 1988; and 251 SDA and 294 non-SDA in 2006. Height and weight measured by hospital staff in 1976, 1986 and 1988; self-reported by respondents in 2006. The mean BMI of non-SDA men increased between 1986 and 2006 (P < 0.001) but did not change for SDA men or non-SDA women. Despite small increases in SDA women's mean BMI (P = 0.030) between 1988 and 2006, this was no different to that of SDA men and non-SDA women in 2006. The diet and eating patterns of SDA men and women were more 'prudent' than those of non-SDA men and women, including more fruit, vegetables, grains, nuts and legumes, and less alcohol, meat, sweetened drinks and coffee. Many of these factors were found to be predictors of lower BMI. The 'prudent' dietary and lifestyle prescriptions of SDA men appear to have 'immunised' them to the secular effects of changes that occurred among non-SDA men's BMI. The dietary and lifestyle trends of SDA women did not reflect the increase in their BMI observed in 2006.

The innate origin of radial and vertical gradients in a simulated galaxy disc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro, Julio F.; Yozin, Cameron; Loewen, Nic; Benítez-Llambay, Alejandro; Fattahi, Azadeh; Frenk, Carlos S.; Oman, Kyle A.; Schaye, Joop; Theuns, Tom

2018-05-01

We examine the origin of radial and vertical gradients in the age/metallicity of the stellar component of a galaxy disc formed in the APOSTLE cosmological hydrodynamical simulations. Some of these gradients resemble those in the Milky Way, where they have sometimes been interpreted as due to internal evolution, such as scattering off giant molecular clouds, radial migration driven by spiral patterns, or orbital resonances with a bar. Secular processes play a minor role in the simulated galaxy, which lacks strong spiral or bar patterns, and where such gradients arise as a result of the gradual enrichment of a gaseous disc that is born thick but thins as it turns into stars and settles into centrifugal equilibrium. The settling is controlled by the feedback of young stars; which links the star formation, enrichment, and equilibration time-scales, inducing radial and vertical gradients in the gaseous disc and its descendent stars. The kinematics of coeval stars evolve little after birth and provide a faithful snapshot of the gaseous disc structure at the time of their formation. In this interpretation, the age-velocity dispersion relation would reflect the gradual thinning of the disc rather than the importance of secular orbit scattering; the outward flaring of stars would result from the gas disc flare rather than from radial migration; and vertical gradients would arise because the gas disc gradually thinned as it enriched. Such radial and vertical trends might just reflect the evolving properties of the parent gaseous disc, and are not necessarily the result of secular evolutionary processes.

Rodinia: Supercontinent's poster child or problem child?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cawood, Peter; Hawkesworth, Chris

2014-05-01

Earth's rock record extending from 1.7 to 0.75 Ga, that period encompassing the entire Rodinian supercontinent cycle and the latter part of Nuna cycle, and corresponding with Earth's Middle Age, is characterized by environmental, evolutionary and lithospheric stability that contrasts with the dramatic changes in preceding and succeeding eras. The period is marked by a paucity of passive margins, an absence of a significant Sr anomaly in the paleoseawater record or in the epsilon Hf(t) in detrital zircon, a lack of orogenic gold and volcanic-hosted massive sulfide deposits, and an absence of glacial deposits and of iron formations. In contrast, anorthosites and kindred bodies are well developed and major pulses of Mo and Cu mineralization, including the world's largest examples of these deposits, are features of this period. These trends are attributed to the combined effects of lithospheric behavior related to secular cooling of the mantle and a relatively stable continental assemblage that was initiated during assembly of the Nuna supercontinent by ~1.7 Ga and continued until breakup of its closely related successor, Rodinia, around 0.75 Ga. The overall low abundance of passive margins within this timeframe is consistent with a stable continental configuration, which also provided a framework for environmental and evolutionary stability. A series of convergent margin accretionary orogens developed along the margin of the supercontinent as evidenced by rock sequences preserved in dispersed fragments in Australia, Antarctica, Amazonia, Baltica and Laurentia. Abundant anorthosites and related rocks developed inboard of the plate margin. Their temporal distribution appears to link with the secular cooling of the mantle in which the overlying continental lithosphere was then strong enough to be thickened, during either low angle subduction or post-subduction collision, and to support the emplacement of large plutons into the crust, yet the underlying mantle was still warm enough to result in widespread melting of the lower thickened crust.

Planet Formation in Small Separation Binaries: Not so Secularly Excited by the Companion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafikov, Roman R.

2013-03-01

The existence of planets in binaries with relatively small separations (around 20 AU), such as α Centauri or γ Cephei, poses severe challenges to standard planet formation theories. The problem lies in the vigorous secular excitation of planetesimal eccentricities at separations of several AU, where some of the planets are found, by the massive, eccentric stellar companions. High relative velocities of planetesimals preclude their growth in mutual collisions for a wide range of sizes, from below 1 km up to several hundred km, resulting in a fragmentation barrier to planet formation. Here we show that, for the case of an axisymmetric circumstellar protoplanetary disk, the rapid apsidal precession of planetesimal orbits caused by the disk gravity acts to strongly reduce the direct secular eccentricity excitation by the companion, lowering planetesimal velocities by an order of magnitude or even more at 1 AU. By examining the details of planetesimal dynamics, we demonstrate that this effect eliminates the fragmentation barrier for in situ growth of planetesimals as small as <~ 10 km even at separations as wide as 2.6 AU (the semimajor axis of the giant planet in HD 196885), provided that the circumstellar protoplanetary disk has a small eccentricity and is relatively massive, ~0.1 M ⊙.

Intergroup conflict management strategies as related to perceptions of dual identity and separate groups.

PubMed

Bizman, Aharon; Yinon, Yoel

2004-04-01

The authors examined the relations between (a) the perceptions of dual identity and separate groups and (b) intergroup conflict management strategies, in two contexts: the conflict between the secular and religious sectors in Israel and the allocation of resources among organizational subunits. In both contexts, contention (i.e., forcing one's will on the other party) was associated with the perception of separate groups. Only in the organizational context, avoidance (i.e., doing nothing or discontinuing participation in the conflict) was associated with the perception of dual identity. Problem solving (i.e., finding a solution that is acceptable to both parties) was related to the perception of dual identity in the secular-religious context. In the organizational context, this relation appeared only under a low perception of separate groups. Yielding (i.e., satisfying the other party's needs at the expense of one's own) was related to the perception of dual identity in the organizational context. In the secular-religious context, this relation appeared only under a high perception of separate groups. The authors discussed the varying pattern of the associations between (a) the perceptions of dual identity and separate groups and (b) the conflict management strategies in the two contexts in terms of the Dual Concern Model and the perceived feasibility of the strategies.

Community-based intervention packages facilitated by NGOs demonstrate plausible evidence for child mortality impact.

PubMed

Ricca, Jim; Kureshy, Nazo; LeBan, Karen; Prosnitz, Debra; Ryan, Leo

2014-03-01

Evidence exists that community-based intervention packages can have substantial child and newborn mortality impact, and may help more countries meet Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) targets. A non-governmental organization (NGO) project using such programming in Mozambique documented an annual decline in under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 9.3% in a province in which Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data showed a 4.2% U5MR decline during the same period. To test the generalizability of this finding, the same analysis was applied to a group of projects funded by the US Agency for International Development. Projects supported implementation of community-based intervention packages aimed at increasing use of health services while improving preventive and home-care practices for children under five. All projects collect baseline and endline population coverage data for key child health interventions. Twelve projects fitted the inclusion criteria. U5MR decline was estimated by modelling these coverage changes in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) and comparing with concurrent measured DHS mortality data. Average coverage changes for all interventions exceeded average concurrent trends. When population coverage changes were modelled in LiST, they were estimated to give a child mortality improvement in the project area that exceeded concurrent secular trend in the subnational DHS region in 11 of 12 cases. The average improvement in modelled U5MR (5.8%) was more than twice the concurrent directly measured average decline (2.5%). NGO projects implementing community-based intervention packages appear to be effective in reducing child mortality in diverse settings. There is plausible evidence that they raised coverage for a variety of high-impact interventions and improved U5MR by more than twice the concurrent secular trend. All projects used community-based strategies that achieved frequent interpersonal contact for health behaviour change. Further study of the effectiveness and scalability of similar packages should be part of the effort to accelerate progress towards MDG 4.

The increasing problem of subclinical and overt hypervitaminosis D in India: An institutional experience and review.

PubMed

Sharma, Lokesh Kumar; Dutta, Deep; Sharma, Neera; Gadpayle, Adesh Kisanji

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine the changes in serum vitamin D distribution at an institute in India over the past 6 y and compare it with global trends. We conducted an audit of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD), calcium, and plasma intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) reporting from January 2011 to February 2016. References for review were identified through searches of PubMed, Medline, and Embase for articles published until February 2016 using keywords "hypervitaminosis D" (MeSH Terms) OR "vitamin D toxicity" (All Fields) OR "vitamin-D intoxication" (All Fields). Reports of 25-OHD from 5527 patients were analyzed. Calcium and iPTH were available for 5501 (99.5%) and 1787 (32.3%) patients, respectively. Vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency were observed in 59.4 and 77.3%. Hypervitaminosis D (25-OHD >250 nmol/L) was noted in 225 (4.1%) patients, of whom 151 (2.7%) had vitamin D intoxication (25-OHD >375 nmol/L). We found that 46.22% (104 of 225) patients with hypervitaminosis D and 62.25% (94 of 151) with vitamin D intoxication had elevated calcium or suppressed iPTH. Orthopedic, pediatric, and surgery patients had the highest rates of hypervitaminosis D (7.9, 7.2, and 7% respectively; P < 0.001). An increasing trend for hypervitaminosis D was observed (1.48, 3.62, 3.90, 4.78, 6.21, and 7.82% in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively). A similar steady upward trend in 25-OHD has been reported in Ireland, England, Canada, and Australia. However, hypervitaminosis D reports are scant and have not increased over the years in the developed world. There is a global secular trend of increases in 25-OHD over years. There is a disturbing trend of increased hypervitaminosis D at an Indian institute. Empiric, unmonitored, prolonged vitamin D supplementation, using non-recommended supraphysiological doses, especially when administered intramuscularly, should be discouraged. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Internal Climatic Influences From Secular To Multi-decadal Scales: Comparison Of NAO Reconstructions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolle, M.; Debret, M.; Massei, N.; de Vernal, A.

2017-12-01

In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major dominant mode of variability in winter atmospheric circulation, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks in the North Atlantic sector. To understand the role of this internal climatic oscillations on the past climate variability, several proxy-based reconstructions of the NAO were published during the last decades. Two of them are available during the past 1,200 years: a first NAO reconstruction published by Trouet et al. (2009) and a second proposed by Ortega et al. (2015). The major discrepancy between the two reconstructions concerns the transition period between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age. The first NAO reconstruction shows persistent positive phases during the MCA (AD 1000-1300) but this dominant trend is not highlighted in the reconstruction proposed by Ortega et al. (2015), asking the question of the influence of predictors used to reconstruct the NAO signal during the last millennia. In these study, we compare the two NAO reconstructions in order to determine the effect of bi-proxy or multi-proxy approach on the signal reconstructed. Using statistical and wavelet analysis methods, we conclude that the number of predictors used do not have impact on the signal reconstruct. The two reconstructions signals are characterized by similar variabilities expressed from multi-decadal to multi-secular scales. The major trend difference seems to be link to the type of the predictor and particularly the use of Greenland ice cores in the reconstruction proposed in 2015.

The impact of standalone call centres and GP cooperatives on access to after hours GP care: a before and after study adjusted for secular trend.

PubMed

Dunt, David; Day, Susan E; Kelaher, Margaret; Montalto, Michael

2006-08-01

The After Hours Primary Medical Trials were initiated by the Australian government to redress difficulties in after hours (AH) GP care in areas of high need. The study's objective is to study the impact of two standalone call centres and one GP cooperative offering comprehensive services, in improving consumer access to services for residents of a defined geographic area. A pre-post design was used to evaluate their impact after adjusting for secular trend at a national level. Access was considered in terms of availability, accessibility, affordability, acceptability and responsiveness of care. Unmet need and ease of obtaining AH telephone professional medical advice were also considered. Pre-trial and post-trial telephone surveys of two separate random samples of approximately 350 households using AH services in each trial area as well as in a national sample outside the trial areas. Consumer acceptability and affordability increased in residents in the area served by the GP cooperative. Access, however measured, did not improve in either of the standalone call centre areas. Reduction in unmet need approached but did not achieve statistical significance in most but not all trial areas. Improvements in access in the GP cooperative conformed to expectations based on current and pre-existing AH care arrangements put in place. Absence of improvements in access in the standalone call centres did not conform to expectations but may be partly explained by the reductions in consumer acceptability, following introduction of telephone triage systems reported elsewhere.

Secular trends in meat and seafood consumption patterns among Chinese adults, 1991-2011.

PubMed

Wang, Z H; Zhai, F Y; Wang, H J; Zhang, J G; Du, W W; Su, C; Zhang, J; Jiang, H R; Zhang, B

2015-02-01

Several studies have suggested differential health effects in relation to different meat composition in Western population. The purpose of the study was to examine secular trends in meat and seafood consumption patterns among Chinese adults between 1991 and 2011. Our longitudinal data are from 21,144 adults aged 18-75 in the China Health and Nutrition Survey, prospective cohort study. We assessed the intakes of meat and subtypes with three 24-h dietary recalls. We conducted multilevel mixed-effect logistic and linear regression models to examine meat consumption dynamics. The proportions of Chinese adults who consumed red meat, poultry and seafood increased from 65.7% in 1991 to 86.1% in 2011, from 7.5 to 20.9% and from 27.4 to 37.8%, respectively. With rapid decrease in meat intakes since 2009, the intakes of total meat, red meat, poultry and seafood among their consumers were 86.7 g/day, 86.4 g/day, 71.0 g/day and 70.3 g/day in 2011, respectively, which were just slightly higher compared with those in 1991. Fatty fresh pork has been predominantly component of total meat overtime, which consituted 54.0% of total meat intake, 80.0% of fresh red meat intake and 98.7% of fatty fresh red meat intake in 2011. Over the past two decades, meat consumption patterns of Chinese adults have been characterized by having a predominant intake of fatty fresh pork, suboptimal intakes of seafood and increased proportion of adults having excessive intakes of red meat and poultry overtime.

A QI Initiative to Reduce Hospitalization for Children With Isolated Skull Fractures.

PubMed

Lyons, Todd W; Stack, Anne M; Monuteaux, Michael C; Parver, Stephanie L; Gordon, Catherine R; Gordon, Caroline D; Proctor, Mark R; Nigrovic, Lise E

2016-06-01

Although children with isolated skull fractures rarely require acute interventions, most are hospitalized. Our aim was to safely decrease the hospitalization rate for children with isolated skull fractures. We designed and executed this multifaceted quality improvement (QI) initiative between January 2008 and July 2015 to reduce hospitalization rates for children ≤21 years old with isolated skull fractures at a single tertiary care pediatric institution. We defined an isolated skull fracture as a skull fracture without intracranial injury. The QI intervention consisted of 2 steps: (1) development and implementation of an evidence-based guideline, and (2) dissemination of a provider survey designed to reinforce guideline awareness and adherence. Our primary outcome was hospitalization rate and our balancing measure was hospital readmission within 72 hours. We used standard statistical process control methodology to assess change over time. To assess for secular trends, we examined admission rates for children with an isolated skull fracture in the Pediatric Health Information System administrative database. We identified 321 children with an isolated skull fracture with a median age of 11 months (interquartile range 5-16 months). The baseline admission rate was 71% (179/249, 95% confidence interval, 66%-77%) and decreased to 46% (34/72, 95% confidence interval, 35%-60%) after implementation of our QI initiative. No child was readmitted after discharge. The admission rate in our secular trend control group remained unchanged at 78%. We safely reduced the hospitalization rate for children with isolated skull fractures without an increase in the readmissions. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Primary Enforcement of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws and Motor Vehicle Crash Deaths.

PubMed

Harper, Sam; Strumpf, Erin C

2017-08-01

Policies that allow directly citing motorists for seat belt non-use (primary enforcement) have been shown to reduce motor vehicle crash deaths relative to secondary enforcement, but the evidence base is dated and does not account for recent improvements in vehicle designs and road safety. The purpose of this study was to test whether recent upgrades to primary enforcement still reduce motor vehicle crash deaths. In 2016, researchers used motor vehicle crash death data from the Fatal Analysis Reporting System for 2000-2014 and calculated rates using both person- and exposure-based denominators. Researchers used a difference-in-differences design to estimate the effect of primary enforcement on death rates, and estimated negative binomial regression models, controlling for age, substance use involvement, fixed state characteristics, secular trends, state median household income, and other state-level traffic safety policies. Models adjusted only for crash characteristics and state-level covariates models showed a protective effect of primary enforcement (rate ratio, 0.88, 95% CI=0.77, 0.98; rate difference, -1.47 deaths per 100,000 population, 95% CI= -2.75, -0.19). After adjustment for fixed state characteristics and secular trends, there was no evidence of an effect of upgrading from secondary to primary enforcement in the whole population (rate ratio, 0.98, 95% CI=0.92, 1.04; rate difference, -0.22, 95% CI= -0.90, 0.46) or for any age group. Upgrading to primary enforcement no longer appears protective for motor vehicle crash death rates. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Galaxy Zoo: Observing secular evolution through bars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheung, Edmond; Faber, S. M.; Koo, David C.

In this paper, we use the Galaxy Zoo 2 data set to study the behavior of bars in disk galaxies as a function of specific star formation rate (SSFR) and bulge prominence. Our sample consists of 13,295 disk galaxies, with an overall (strong) bar fraction of 23.6% ± 0.4%, of which 1154 barred galaxies also have bar length (BL) measurements. These samples are the largest ever used to study the role of bars in galaxy evolution. We find that the likelihood of a galaxy hosting a bar is anticorrelated with SSFR, regardless of stellar mass or bulge prominence. We findmore » that the trends of bar likelihood and BL with bulge prominence are bimodal with SSFR. We interpret these observations using state-of-the-art simulations of bar evolution that include live halos and the effects of gas and star formation. We suggest our observed trends of bar likelihood with SSFR are driven by the gas fraction of the disks, a factor demonstrated to significantly retard both bar formation and evolution in models. We interpret the bimodal relationship between bulge prominence and bar properties as being due to the complicated effects of classical bulges and central mass concentrations on bar evolution and also to the growth of disky pseudobulges by bar evolution. These results represent empirical evidence for secular evolution driven by bars in disk galaxies. This work suggests that bars are not stagnant structures within disk galaxies but are a critical evolutionary driver of their host galaxies in the local universe (z < 1).« less

Trends in the aetiology of urogenital fistula: a case of 'retrogressive evolution'?

PubMed

Hilton, Paul

2016-06-01

It has long been held as conventional wisdom that urogenital fistulae in low-income and middle-income countries are almost exclusively of obstetric aetiology, related to prolonged neglected obstructed labour, whereas those seen in high-income countries are largely iatrogenic in nature. There is, however, a growing perception amongst those working in the field that an increasing proportion of urogenital fistulae in low-income and middle-income countries may be iatrogenic, resulting from caesarean section. Recent studies suggest that adverse patterns of care may also be emerging in high-income countries; an increase in the risk of both vesicovaginal and ureterovaginal fistulae following hysterectomy has been reported, concurrently with the reduction in overall use of the procedure. These apparent secular trends are discussed in the context of evolution of practice, teaching and training in obstetrics and gynaecology.

Job Changing and the Decline in Long-Distance Migration in the United States.

PubMed

Molloy, Raven; Smith, Christopher L; Wozniak, Abigail

2017-04-01

Interstate migration in the United States has decreased steadily since the 1980s, but little is known about the causes of this decline. We show that declining migration is related to a concurrent secular decline in job changing. Neither trend is primarily due to observable demographic or socioeconomic factors. Rather, we argue that the decline in job changing has caused the decline in migration. After establishing a role for the labor market in declining migration, we turn to the question of why job changing has become less frequent over the past several decades. We find little support for several explanations, including the rise of dual-career households, the decline in middle-skill jobs, occupational licensing, and the need for employees to retain health insurance. Thus, the reasons for these dual trends remain opaque and should be explored further.

Steady induction effects in geomagnetism. Part 1C: Geomagnetic estimation of steady surficial core motions: Application to the definitive geomagnetic reference field models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voorhies, Coerte V.

1993-01-01

In the source-free mantle/frozen-flux core magnetic earth model, the non-linear inverse steady motional induction problem was solved using the method presented in Part 1B. How that method was applied to estimate steady, broad-scale fluid velocity fields near the top of Earth's core that induce the secular change indicated by the Definitive Geomagnetic Reference Field (DGRF) models from 1945 to 1980 are described. Special attention is given to the derivation of weight matrices for the DGRF models because the weights determine the apparent significance of the residual secular change. The derived weight matrices also enable estimation of the secular change signal-to-noise ratio characterizing the DGRF models. Two types of weights were derived in 1987-88: radial field weights for fitting the evolution of the broad-scale portion of the radial geomagnetic field component at Earth's surface implied by the DGRF's, and general weights for fitting the evolution of the broad-scale portion of the scalar potential specified by these models. The difference is non-trivial because not all the geomagnetic data represented by the DGRF's constrain the radial field component. For radial field weights (or general weights), a quantitatively acceptable explication of broad-scale secular change relative to the 1980 Magsat epoch must account for 99.94271 percent (or 99.98784 percent) of the total weighted variance accumulated therein. Tolerable normalized root-mean-square weighted residuals of 2.394 percent (or 1.103 percent) are less than the 7 percent errors expected in the source-free mantle/frozen-flux core approximation.

Health Care Decisions at the End of Life: Theological and Ethical Foundations for Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allegretti, Joseph G.

This paper provides a framework for making sense of perplexing problems surrounding issues of death and dying by exploring the theological and ethical background to health care decision making at the end of life. The paper first examines several of the basic principles that theologians and secular ethicists employ when analyzing such questions.…

A Restorationist Views the Modernist/Post Modernist Debate. (Presidential Address).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flinders, Neil J.

The nation's schools and society in general face serious problems that are largely rooted in moral and spiritual issues. Modern philosophy has led to a secular culture in which the existence of a divine God has been rejected, and man has become his own God, his own standard of measurement. These issues are addressed from the point of view of a…

A new method to estimate global mass transport and its implication for sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, S.; Heki, K.

2017-12-01

Estimates of changes in global land mass by using GRACE observations can be achieved by two methods, a mascon method and a forward modeling method. However, results from these two methods show inconsistent secular trend. Sea level budget can be adopted to validate the consistency among observations of sea level rise by altimetry, steric change by the Argo project, and mass change by GRACE. Mascon products from JPL, GSFC and CSR are compared here, we find that all these three products cannot achieve a reconciled sea level budget, while this problem can be solved by a new forward modeling method. We further investigate the origin of this difference, and speculate that it is caused by the signal leakage from the ocean mass. Generally, it is well recognized that land signals leak into oceans, but it also happens the other way around. We stress the importance of correction of leakage from the ocean in the estimation of global land masses. Based on a reconciled sea level budget, we confirmed that global sea level rise has been accelerating significantly over 2005-2015, as a result of the ongoing global temperature increase.

Nutritional Status Of Under-Five Children In Libya; A National Population-Based Survey

PubMed Central

Adel, El Taguri; Marie-Françoise, Rolland-Cachera; Mahmud Salaheddin, M; Najeeb, Elmrzougi; Ahmed, Abdel Monem; Ibrahim, Betilmal; Gerard, Lenoir

2008-01-01

Aim To describe the nutritional status of children under-five years of age in Libya. Population and methods A secondary analysis of data of 5348 children taken from a national representative, two-stage, cluster-sample survey that was performed in 1995. Results: Prevalence rates of underweight, wasting, stunting, and overweight were determined using standard definitions in reference to newly established WHO growth charts. The study revealed that 4.3% of children were underweight, 3.7% wasted, 20.7% stunted, and 16.2% overweight. Seventy percent of children had normal weight. Undernutrition was more likely to be found in males, in rural areas, and in underprivileged groups. Overweight was more likely found in urban, privileged groups. Wasting was more common in arid regions; stunting was more common in mountainous regions of Al-Akhdar, Al-Gharbi, and in Sirt. Al-Akhdar had the highest prevalence of overweight. Conclusion The country had a low prevalence of underweight and wasting, moderate prevalence of stunting, and high prevalence of overweight. The country is in the early stages of transition with evidence of dual-burden in some regions. Similar surveys are needed to verify secular trends of these nutritional problems, particularly overweight. PMID:21499476

Investigating the Uncertainty in Global SST Trends Due to Internal Variations Using an Improved Trend Estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao; Shen, Zheqi; Ying, Jun; Tang, Youmin; Li, Junde; Ling, Zheng

2018-03-01

A new criterion was proposed recently to measure the influence of internal variations on secular trends in a time series. When the magnitude of the trend is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from internal variations, the sign of the estimated trend can be interpreted as the underlying long-term change. Otherwise, the sign may depend on the period chosen. An improved least squares method is developed here to further reduce the theoretical threshold and is applied to eight sea surface temperature (SST) data sets covering the period 1881-2013 to investigate whether there are robust trends in global SSTs. It is found that the warming trends in the western boundary regions, the South Atlantic, and the tropical and southern-most Indian Ocean are robust. However, robust trends are not found in the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, or the South Indian Ocean. The globally averaged SST and Indian Ocean Dipole indices are found to have robustly increased, whereas trends in the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific, Niño 3.4 SST, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices are within the uncertainty range associated with internal variations. These results indicate that great care is required when interpreting SST trends using the available records in certain regions and indices. It is worth noting that the theoretical threshold can be strongly influenced by low-frequency oscillations, and the above conclusions are based on the assumption that trends are linear. Caution should be exercised when applying the theoretical threshold criterion to real data.

Prediction of secular acceleration of axial rotation of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkin, Yu. V.

2009-04-01

Secular motion of the Earth pole and non-tidal acceleration of its diurnal rotation have obtained rather precise explanation with the help of simple one-point model of the directed transport of fluid masses from a southern hemisphere in northern hemisphere with the general direction, given by geocentric axis OP directed to pole P with coordinates 700N, 10403 E[1]. The another generalized model represents a system of two material points with masses m2 and m1, located on surface of the Earth at poles of geocentric axis OP. Masses are linearly changed in the time with velocities [2]: ṁ2 = 0.179 × 1015kg/yrand ṁ1 = 0.043 × 1015kg/yr. A reduction of fluid masses of the appropriate thin spherical layer of the Earth correspond to secular increasing of masses of model points. The specified model has allowed to explain values of fundamental geodynamic parameters observably and determined during decades: a direction and velocity of drift of a pole of the Earth; value of non-tidal acceleration of axial rotation; to explain a secular variations of coefficients of the second, third, fourth, sixth and eighth zonal harmonics of a geopotential; coefficients of secular changes of a surface of ocean for the last approximately 150 years; a direction of secular drift of a geocenter and other planetary phenomena [3]. The role of the angular momentum of redistributed masses of the Earth in rotation of the Earth appeared not essential at the given stage of researches. On the essence the offered model has semi-empirical character as it bases on values of velocities of change of masses of points and the given position of axis OP. For their determination and estimations the part of the observant data was used, and other parameters were designed under analytical formulas. The obtained results have precisely confirmed competency and affectivity of geodynamic model [4] about existence of secular drift of a liquid core along radial direction OP with velocity about 2.6 cm/yr in the northern direction to Taimyr peninsula. Thus the gravitational attraction of superfluous mass of the core (19 % from the Earth mass) causes secular asymmetric inversion tide [2] of fluids which effectively manages to be modeled by two points with variable masses. In the given work the attempt to construct a similar model of the directed secular redistribution of fluid masses of Mars from a southern hemisphere in northern is undertaken with the purpose of an explanation of observably tendencies in redistribution of masses between hemispheres and with the purpose of a prediction of the new phenomena in its rotary motion. The hypothetical assumption is made, that secular redistribution of fluid masses from a southern hemisphere in northern hemisphere of Mars mainly is determined by areocentric axis OP directed to the pole P with coordinates 570N, 820 E (as is known in this direction the centre of mass of Mars relatively the centre of a figure on 2.8 km is displaced). Material points with masses m2 and m1 settle down at poles of geocentric axis OP on a surface of Mars, and their masses change linearly in the time with velocities [5]: ṁ2 = 0.402 × 1015kg/yr and ṁ1 = 0.257 × 1015kg/yr. The given modeling characteristics correspond to prospective secular variations of coefficients of the second and third zonal harmonics of gravitational potential of Mars: J˙2= - 57.0 × 10-11 1/yr and ˙J3 = -4.94 × 10-11 1/yr, more less agreed for today with the data of observations (Dehant, private communication, 2008) [6]. Let's emphasize, that the discussed phenomena of asymmetry of hemispheres, intensity of inversion processes, and bipolarity and inversion of all structures of Mars much more expressive, than at the Earth. Therefore we in the right to expect the greater efficiency in application of geodynamic model and more significant secular effects in rotation of Mars in comparison with the Earth. The constructed model has allowed to estimate non-tidal acceleration of axial rotation which as it would be possible to expect, essentially surpasses the similar characteristic of rotation of the Earth. The obtained result means, that angular velocity of Mars in present period increases on the law r = (0.708821808000+ 0.000000001038×t) × 10-4 1/s, here t - in years. It is possible assume that the estimation of acceleration can be obtained directly on the basis of the data of observations in the nearest years. Velocity of secular change of duration of day for Mars (LOD) thus can make significant value about -0.0903 ms/yr, that considerably surpasses similar value for non-tidal acceleration of the Earth (-0.006 ms/yr). The ratio of positive acceleration of the Earth rotation ṙ to its angular velocity ? makes ṙ•? = (6.9± 1.7) × 10-11 1/yr[7]. In case of Mars the estimation of acceleration was carried out under the formula [8]: ṙ/ ? = -Ċ• C -á¹ °• G ?-Ċ• C = 103.8 × 10-11 1/yr. We here have neglected by an influence of secular change of the axial angular momentum of fluid masses (atmospheric and underground) of Marsá¹ °. As shown in other my report on EGU GA 2009 in case of the Earth the total angular momentum of fluids really is small and within the limits of mistakes can be accepted equal to zero. In the case of Mars we the same as and in case of the Earth, expect of secular change of the angular momentum of Mars and change of global superrotation of its atmosphere which, at least, in part, will be compensated by the angular momentum of fluids. Thus, expected non-tidal acceleration of axial rotation of Mars can be at 10-15 times more those, but observably by astronomical methods, for the Earth. Certainly, the estimations obtained here are preliminary and the phenomena discussed here require more detailed studying with using of new data of precision observations. First of all it is important to obtain the specified values of secular variations ˙ J2 and ˙ J3. In case of the Earth the tidal deceleration of daily rotation of the Earth essentially surpasses non-tidal acceleration (35 %) which as shown the author is caused by the directed redistribution of fluid masses of the Earth, in turn caused by polar drift of the centre of mass of the liquid core of the Earth to the north [1]. In case of Mars the opposite picture is expected. It is quite possible, as show the executed estimations, that tidal deceleration of axial rotation of Mars much less than its positive acceleration caused by global dynamics of shells (the core and mantle). And it means, that as against the Earth in axial rotation of Mars in the present epoch an acceleration, instead of deceleration of rotation should be observed. References [1] Barkin Yu.V. (2001) Explanation and prediction of the secular variations of the Earth rotation, geopotential, force of gravity and geocenter drift. Proceedings of International Conference «AstroKazan-2001». Astronomy and geodesy in new millennium (24-29 September 2001), Kazan State University: Publisher «DAS», pp. 73-79. [2] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) To an explanation of non-tidal acceleration of the Earth diurnal rotation and secular trend of its pole. Proceedings of IUGG XXIV General Assembly, Perugia, Italy 2007: Earth: Our Changing Planet (Perugia, Italy, July 2-13, 2007), (G) - IAG, GS003, p. 3799. www. iugg2007perugia.it. [3] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Celestial geodynamics and solution of the fundamental problems of geodesy, gravimetry and geophysics. Proceedings of IUGG XXIV General Assembly, Perugia, Italy 2007: Earth: Our Changing Planet (Perugia, Italy, July 2-13, 2007), (S) - IASPEI, JSS011, p. 2149. www. iugg2007perugia.it. [4] Barkin Yu.V. (2002) Explanation of endogenous activity of planets and satellites and its cyclicity. Izvestia cekzii nauk o Zemle. Rus. Acad. of Nat. Sciences, Issue 9, December 2002, M.: VINITI, pp. 45-97. In Russian.

Reply [to “Comment on ‘Changes in relative mean sea level’”

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, W. E.

There is little question that the International Latitude Service (ILS) polar motion time series displays a statistically significant drift in the mean position of the pole. The difficult problem is to determine “Whether this secular motion is apparent (a consequence of the measuring process, local crustal deformation and deflections of the vertical) or real (due to continental drift or a secular motion of the axis of rotation) …,” (K. Lambeck, The Earth's Variable Rotation: Geophysical Causes and Consequences, Cambridge University Press, London, 1980). Neither the n-sigma nor the theoretical plausibility arguments presented by S.R. Dickman are of much use in answering that question. The best evidence that at least some portion of the observed motion may be real is the loose agreement among the ILS, IPMS, and Doppler series during the limited periods of overlap.

Schrödinger evolution of self-gravitating discs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batygin, Konstantin

2018-04-01

An understanding of the long-term evolution of self-gravitating discs ranks among the classic outstanding problems of astrophysics. In this work, we show that the secular inclination dynamics of a geometrically thin quasi-Keplerian disc, with a surface density profile that scales as the inverse square-root of the orbital radius, are described by the time-dependent Schrödinger equation. Within the context of this formalism, nodal bending waves correspond to the eigenmodes of a quasi-particle's wavefunction, confined in an infinite square well with boundaries given by the radial extent of the disc. We further show that external secular perturbations upon self-gravitating discs exhibit a mathematical similarity to quantum scattering theory. Employing this framework, we derive an analytic criterion for the gravitational rigidity of a nearly-Keplerian disc under external perturbations. Applications of the theory to circumstellar discs and Galactic nuclei are discussed.

Use of GRACE determined secular gravity rates for glacial isostatic adjustment studies in North-America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wal, Wouter; Wu, Patrick; Sideris, Michael G.; Shum, C. K.

2008-10-01

Monthly geopotential spherical harmonic coefficients from the GRACE satellite mission are used to determine their usefulness and limitations for studying glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in North-America. Secular gravity rates are estimated by unweighted least-squares estimation using release 4 coefficients from August 2002 to August 2007 provided by the Center for Space Research (CSR), University of Texas. Smoothing is required to suppress short wavelength noise, in addition to filtering to diminish geographically correlated errors, as shown in previous studies. Optimal cut-off degrees and orders are determined for the destriping filter to maximize the signal to noise ratio. The halfwidth of the Gaussian filter is shown to significantly affect the sensitivity of the GRACE data (with respect to upper mantle viscosity and ice loading history). Therefore, the halfwidth should be selected based on the desired sensitivity. It is shown that increase in water storage in an area south west of Hudson Bay, from the summer of 2003 to the summer of 2006, contributes up to half of the maximum estimated gravity rate. Hydrology models differ in the predictions of the secular change in water storage, therefore even 4-year trend estimates are influenced by the uncertainty in water storage changes. Land ice melting in Greenland and Alaska has a non-negligible contribution, up to one-fourth of the maximum gravity rate. The estimated secular gravity rate shows two distinct peaks that can possibly be due to two domes in the former Pleistocene ice cover: west and south east of Hudson Bay. With a limited number of models, a better fit is obtained with models that use the ICE-3G model compared to the ICE-5G model. However, the uncertainty in interannual variations in hydrology models is too large to constrain the ice loading history with the current data span. For future work in which GRACE will be used to constrain ice loading history and the Earth's radial viscosity profile, it is important to include realistic uncertainty estimates for hydrology models and land ice melting in addition to the effects of lateral heterogeneity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takahashi, Sanemichi Z.; Inutsuka, Shu-ichiro, E-mail: sanemichi@astr.tohoku.ac.jp, E-mail: inutsuka@nagoya-u.jp

Recent ALMA observation has revealed multiple ring structures formed in a protoplanetary disk around HL Tau. Prior to the ALMA observation of HL Tau, theoretical analysis of secular gravitational instability (GI) described a possible formation of multiple ring structures with separations of 13 au around a radius of 100 au in protoplanetary disks under certain conditions. In this article, we reanalyze the viability of secular GI by adopting the physical values inferred from the observations. We derive the radial distributions of the most unstable wavelength and the growth timescale of secular GI and verify that secular GI can form themore » ring structures observed in HL Tau. When a turbulent viscosity coefficient α remains small in the inner region of the disk, secular GI grows in the whole disk. Thus, the formation of planetary mass objects should occur first in the inner region as a result of gravitational fragmentation after the nonlinear growth of secular GI. In this case, the resulting objects are expected to create gaps at r  ∼ 10 au and ∼30 au. As a result, all ring structures in HL Tau can be created by secular GI. If this scenario is realized in HL Tau, the outer region corresponds to the earlier growth phase of the most unstable mode of secular GI, and the inner region corresponds to the outcome of the nonlinear growth of secular GI. Therefore, this interpretation suggests that we are possibly witnessing both the beginning and the end of planet formation in HL Tau.« less

Solar wind velocity and daily variation of cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahluwalia, H. S.; Riker, J. F.

1985-01-01

Recently parameters applicable to the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have become much better defined. Superior quality of data bases that are now available, particularly for post-1971 period, make it possible to believe the long-term trends in the data. These data are correlated with the secular changes observed in the diurnal variation parameters obtained from neutron monitor data at Deep River and underground muon telescope data at Embudo (30 MEW) and Socorro (82 MWE). The annual mean amplitudes appear to have large values during the epochs of high speed solar wind streams. Results are discussed.

Local Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services Spending and Nursing Home Admissions of Younger Adults

PubMed Central

Keohane, Laura; Mor, Vincent

2014-01-01

We used fixed-effect models to examine the relationship between local spending on home- and community-based services (HCBSs) for cash-assisted Medicaid-only disabled (CAMOD) adults and younger adult admissions to nursing homes in the United States during 2001 through 2008, with control for facility and market characteristics and secular trends. We found that increased CAMOD Medicaid HCBS spending at the local level is associated with decreased admissions of younger adults to nursing homes. Our findings suggest that states’ efforts to expand HCBS for this population should continue. PMID:25211711

Local Medicaid home- and community-based services spending and nursing home admissions of younger adults.

PubMed

Thomas, Kali S; Keohane, Laura; Mor, Vincent

2014-11-01

We used fixed-effect models to examine the relationship between local spending on home- and community-based services (HCBSs) for cash-assisted Medicaid-only disabled (CAMOD) adults and younger adult admissions to nursing homes in the United States during 2001 through 2008, with control for facility and market characteristics and secular trends. We found that increased CAMOD Medicaid HCBS spending at the local level is associated with decreased admissions of younger adults to nursing homes. Our findings suggest that states' efforts to expand HCBS for this population should continue.

[Crisis in medical ethics].

PubMed

Stellamor, K

1996-01-01

There is a disproportion between diagnostic and therapeutic medical achievements and the doctor/patient relationship. Are we allowed to do everything we are able to do in medicine? People are concerned and worried (genetic technology, invasive medicine, embryos in test tubes etc.). The crisis of ethics in medicine is evident. The analysis of the situation shows one of the causes in the shift of the paradigma-modern times to postmodern following scientific positivism-but also a loss of ethics in medicine due to an extreme secularism and to modern philosophical trends (Hans Jonas and the responsibility for the future and on the other hand modern utilitarism).

Anthropological assessment of changes in living conditions of the rural population in Poland in the period 1967-2001.

PubMed

Laska-Mierzejewska, Teresa; Olszewska, Elzbieta

2007-01-01

Poland is considered an ethnically homogeneous country, with no significant national, linguistic, religious or racial minorities. Thus, social differences in rates of maturation, height and weight may be assumed to contain a negligible genetic component and serve as a reflection of environment, i.e. living conditions. This study seeks to determine whether changes in economic conditions in Poland, in particular the acute economic crisis of 1977-1989 and the transformation of the political system in 1989, had an effect on the biological status of girls from various categories of the rural population. Rural girls aged 9.5-18.5 years were studied in 1967 (n = 7889), 1977 (n = 7771), 1987 (n = 13 556) and in 2001 (n = 9599). The stratification of participants (farmers, farm-workers and non-farmers) was based on the source of their family income, parents' education, number of children per family and household appliances. Age at menarche (AM), body height, and weight were used as biological indicators of living conditions. During the decade 1967-1977, while a relatively good economic situation prevailed in the country, AM decreased by 0.64 years and distinct secular trends in height and weight were noted. During the decade 1977-1987, years of economic crisis, secular trends were arrested and AM increased by 0.11 years. Landless rural families were more strongly affected by food shortages than were farmers who were the food producers. The study, repeated in 2001, showed positive secular trends in body height and a decrease in AM of 0.24 years for decade for daughters of farmers this decrease in AM was twice as high as in non-farmer families. The latter group experienced acute unemployment after the political and economic system transformation (1989). AM was earliest in daughters of non-farmers, and latest in those from farmer families. In 1967, the difference between the mean ages at AM for these groups amounted to 0.53 years, in 1977 to 0.44 years, in 1987 to 0.33 years and to only 0.15 years in 2001. The categories of the rural population, farmers, farm-workers and landless rural inhabitants were variously affected by the economic crisis, as well as by the process of economic transformation. This shows that living conditions of each of those categories changed in different ways and to a different degree during the years 1967-2001. Farmers' families achieved the highest social advancement, as the AM of girls from those families decreased by 0.98 years compared to those from farmer-worker and landless rural families, which decreased by 0.85 and 0.60 years, respectively.

Secular Evolution of Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falcón-Barroso, Jesús; Knapen, Johan H.

2013-10-01

Preface; 1. Secular evolution in disk galaxies John Kormendy; 2. Galaxy morphology Ronald J. Buta; 3. Dynamics of secular evolution James Binney; 4. Bars and secular evolution in disk galaxies: theoretical input E. Athanassoula; 5. Stellar populations Reynier F. Peletier; 6. Star formation rate indicators Daniela Calzetti; 7. The evolving interstellar medium Jacqueline van Gorkom; 8. Evolution of star formation and gas Nick Z. Scoville; 9. Cosmological evolution of galaxies Isaac Shlosman.

Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

1994-01-01

Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

Trends in the prevalence of elevated skinfold thickness among children and adolescents in Shandong Province, China, 1995-2014.

PubMed

Wang, Shu-Rong; Cheng, Yan; Chen, Min; Zhang, Ying-Xiu

2018-04-04

There are abundant data on secular trends in BMI; however, information on the change in subcutaneous fat is limited. The present study examined the trends in the prevalence of elevated skinfold thickness among children and adolescents over the past 19 years (1995-2014) in Shandong Province, China. Data for the study were obtained from two cross-sectional surveys of schoolchildren carried out in 1995 and 2014. Triceps and subscapular skinfold thicknesses (SFT) of all participants were measured. The sum of triceps and subscapular SFT (SSFT) was applied. Children and adolescents with SSFT above or equal to the national age- and sex-specific 85th percentile were defined as 'high SFT'. Shandong Province, China. A total of 16 917 students aged 7-18 years were included. For both boys and girls, an increasing trend in 'high SFT' was observed between 1995 and 2014. The overall prevalence of 'high SFT' increased from 10·31 % for boys and 13·40 % for girls in 1995 to 33·94 % for boys and 29·30 % for girls in 2014 (P<0·01). There are more children and adolescents with very high levels of SFT. These trends describe very unfavourable changes in the body composition and should give cause for concern.

Secular rise in economically valuable personality traits.

PubMed

Jokela, Markus; Pekkarinen, Tuomas; Sarvimäki, Matti; Terviö, Marko; Uusitalo, Roope

2017-06-20

Although trends in many physical characteristics and cognitive capabilities of modern humans are well-documented, less is known about how personality traits have evolved over time. We analyze data from a standardized personality test administered to 79% of Finnish men born between 1962 and 1976 ( n = 419,523) and find steady increases in personality traits that predict higher income in later life. The magnitudes of these trends are similar to the simultaneous increase in cognitive abilities, at 0.2-0.6 SD during the 15-y window. When anchored to earnings, the change in personality traits amounts to a 12% increase. Both personality and cognitive ability have consistent associations with family background, but the trends are similar across groups defined by parental income, parental education, number of siblings, and rural/urban status. Nevertheless, much of the trends in test scores can be attributed to changes in the family background composition, namely 33% for personality and 64% for cognitive ability. These composition effects are mostly due to improvements in parents' education. We conclude that there is a "Flynn effect" for personality that mirrors the original Flynn effect for cognitive ability in magnitude and practical significance but is less driven by compositional changes in family background.

Secular rise in economically valuable personality traits

PubMed Central

Jokela, Markus; Pekkarinen, Tuomas; Sarvimäki, Matti; Terviö, Marko; Uusitalo, Roope

2017-01-01

Although trends in many physical characteristics and cognitive capabilities of modern humans are well-documented, less is known about how personality traits have evolved over time. We analyze data from a standardized personality test administered to 79% of Finnish men born between 1962 and 1976 (n = 419,523) and find steady increases in personality traits that predict higher income in later life. The magnitudes of these trends are similar to the simultaneous increase in cognitive abilities, at 0.2–0.6 SD during the 15-y window. When anchored to earnings, the change in personality traits amounts to a 12% increase. Both personality and cognitive ability have consistent associations with family background, but the trends are similar across groups defined by parental income, parental education, number of siblings, and rural/urban status. Nevertheless, much of the trends in test scores can be attributed to changes in the family background composition, namely 33% for personality and 64% for cognitive ability. These composition effects are mostly due to improvements in parents’ education. We conclude that there is a “Flynn effect” for personality that mirrors the original Flynn effect for cognitive ability in magnitude and practical significance but is less driven by compositional changes in family background. PMID:28584092

Cohort-specific trends in stroke mortality in seven European countries were related to infant mortality rates.

PubMed

Amiri, M; Kunst, A E; Janssen, F; Mackenbach, J P

2006-12-01

To assess, in a population-based study, whether secular trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in seven European countries were correlated with past trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) in these countries. Data on ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke mortality in 1950-1999 in the Netherlands, England & Wales, France, and four Nordic countries were analyzed. We used Poisson regression to describe trends in mortality according to birth cohort, for the cohorts born between 1860 and 1939. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to determine associations between IMR and IHD, or stroke mortality. IHD mortality increased for successive cohorts up to 1900, and then started to decline. Stroke mortality levels were virtually stable among birth cohorts up to 1880, but declined rapidly among later cohorts. A strong positive association was found between cohort-specific IMR levels and stroke mortality rates. There were no strong cohort-wise associations between IMR and IHD mortality. These results support other studies in suggesting that living conditions in early childhood may influence population levels of stroke mortality. Future studies should determine the contribution of specific early life factors to the mortality decline in IHD and especially stroke.

Trends in nutritional intakes and nutrition-related cardiovascular disease risk factors in Lebanon: the need for immediate action.

PubMed

Nasreddine, Lara; Naja, Farah A; Sibai, Abla-Mehio; Helou, Khalil; Adra, Nada; Hwalla, Nahla

2014-01-01

To examine the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and their association with dietary variables in the Lebanese population while reviewing secular trends in the population's nutritional intakes and nutrition-related CVD risk factors. Data on CVD risk factors and food consumption patterns in Lebanon were collected from scholarly papers, including individual studies and systematic review articles. Electronic databases were searched using combinations of key terms. The prevalence of obesity in Lebanon followed an alarming increasing trend over time, paralleled by an escalation in the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidemia. Food consumption surveys illustrate an increasing trend in energy intake and the proportion of energy derived from fat and animal products, with a concomitant decrease in carbohydrates and cereals intakes. The shift towards an atherogenic diet coupled with the alarming increase in nutrition-related cardiovascular risk factors suggest that the Lebanese population is at an increased risk for CVDs. This should alert to the importance of formulating multicomponent intervention strategies at both the individual and population levels to halt the progression of nutrition-related diseases in the country, while highlighting the need for immediate public health efforts to promote the adoption of healthy dietary habits.

The Problem of Civic Cohesion and the Role of the State School in France and Italy: Historical, Religious and Secular Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferrari, Alessandro

2006-01-01

The paper aims to investigate the role assigned to state schools in France and Italy in constructing social cohesion and a common citizenship. The theme will be treated by individuating three different stages of a process of progressive mutual rapprochement between state and civil society. From the separatist phase, passing through an intermediate…

The 1995 revision of the joint US/UK geomagnetic field models - I. Secular variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Macmillan, S.; Barraclough, D.R.; Quinn, J.M.; Coleman, R.J.

1997-01-01

We present the methods used to derive mathematical models of global secular variation of the main geomagnetic field for the period 1985 to 2000. These secular-variation models are used in the construction of the candidate US/UK models for the Definitive Geomagnetic Reference Field at 1990, the International Geomagnetic Reference Field for 1995 to 2000, and the World Magnetic Model for 1995 to 2000 (see paper II, Quinn et al., 1997). The main sources of data for the secular-variation models are geomagnetic observatories and repeat stations. Over the areas devoid of these data secular-variation information is extracted from aeromagnetic and satellite data. We describe how secular variation is predicted up to the year 2000 at the observatories and repeat stations, how the aeromagnetic and satellite data are used, and how all the data are combined to produce the required models.

Trends in CPAP adherence over twenty years of data collection: a flattened curve.

PubMed

Rotenberg, Brian W; Murariu, Dorian; Pang, Kenny P

2016-08-19

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common disorder, and continuous airway positive pressure (CPAP) is considered to be the gold standard of therapy. CPAP however is known to have problems with adherence, with many patients eventually abandoning the device. The purpose of this paper is to assess secular trends in CPAP adherence over the long term to see if there have been meaningful improvements in adherence in light of the multiple interventions proposed to do so. A comprehensive systematic literature review was conducted using the Medline-Ovid, Embase, and Pubmed databases, searching for data regarding CPAP adherence over a twenty year timeframe (1994-2015). Data was assessed for quality and then extracted. The main outcome measure was reported CPAP non-adherence. Secondary outcomes included changes in CPAP non-adherence when comparing short versus long-term, and changes in terms of behavioral counseling. Eighty-two papers met study inclusion/exclusion criteria. The overall CPAP non-adherence rate based on a 7-h/night sleep time that was reported in studies conducted over the twenty year time frame was 34.1 %. There was no significant improvement over the time frame. Behavioral intervention improved adherence rates by ~1 h per night on average. The rate of CPAP adherence remains persistently low over twenty years worth of reported data. No clinically significant improvement in CPAP adherence was seen even in recent years despite efforts toward behavioral intervention and patient coaching. This low rate of adherence is problematic, and calls into question the concept of CPAP as gold-standard of therapy for OSA.

BMI-for-age in South Asian children of 0-20 years in the Netherlands: secular changes and misclassification by WHO growth references.

PubMed

de Wilde, J A; Dekker, M; Middelkoop, B J C

2018-03-01

South Asians are prone to cardiometabolic disease at lower BMI levels than most other ethnic groups, starting in childhood. The magnitude of BMI misclassifications is unknown. To compare the BMI distribution of contemporary South Asian 0-20 year olds in the Netherlands with: (1) The South Asian norm reference (secular trends); and (2) The WHO child growth standard and reference. The BMI-for-age distribution of 6677 routine measurements of 3322 South Asian children, aged 0-20 years, was described with the LMS method and BMI z-scores. The BMI distribution in South Asian 0-4 year olds was almost similar to the norm reference (mean BMI z-score = 0.11, skewness = 0.31, SD = 1.0), whereas in 5-19 year olds the distribution had shifted upwards (mean = 0.53) and widened (skewness = -0.12, SD = 1.08). Overweight (incl. obesity) and obesity peaked at 8-10 years, at 45-48% and 35-37%, respectively. Relative to the WHO references, the BMI distribution was left-shifted at ages 0-4 years (mean BMI z-score = -0.46, skewness = 0.23, SD = 0.98) and widened at ages 5-20 years (mean = 0.05; skewness = -0.02, SD = 1.40). At most ages, thinness rates were significantly higher and obesity rates lower than based on South Asian norms. A secular change of BMI-for-age in South Asian children mostly affected children >4 years. WHO references likely under-estimate overweight and obesity rates in South Asian children.

Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, D. R.; Collins, W. D.; Biraud, S. C.; Risser, M. D.; Turner, D. D.; Gero, P. J.; Tadić, J.; Helmig, D.; Xie, S.; Mlawer, E. J.; Shippert, T. R.; Torn, M. S.

2018-04-01

Atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratios exhibited a plateau between 1995 and 2006 and have subsequently been increasing. While there are a number of competing explanations for the temporal evolution of this greenhouse gas, these prominent features in the temporal trajectory of atmospheric CH4 are expected to perturb the surface energy balance through radiative forcing, largely due to the infrared radiative absorption features of CH4. However, to date this has been determined strictly through radiative transfer calculations. Here, we present a quantified observation of the time series of clear-sky radiative forcing by CH4 at the surface from 2002 to 2012 at a single site derived from spectroscopic measurements along with line-by-line calculations using ancillary data. There was no significant trend in CH4 forcing between 2002 and 2006, but since then, the trend in forcing was 0.026 ± 0.006 (99.7% CI) W m2 yr-1. The seasonal-cycle amplitude and secular trends in observed forcing are influenced by a corresponding seasonal cycle and trend in atmospheric CH4. However, we find that we must account for the overlapping absorption effects of atmospheric water vapour (H2O) and CH4 to explain the observations fully. Thus, the determination of CH4 radiative forcing requires accurate observations of both the spatiotemporal distribution of CH4 and the vertically resolved trends in H2O.

Recent changes in salt use and stroke mortality in England and Wales. Any help for the salt-hypertension debate?

PubMed Central

Cummins, R O

1983-01-01

This analysis attempts to fill the gap in the epidemiological evidence about the relation between dietary salt and hypertension. Changes in the purchase of salt in England and Wales are compared with changes in mortality from cerebrovascular disease (1958-78). Stroke mortality, a major sequel of hypertension, has declined in this period. Consumer purchases of salt have decreased also, as suggested by the National Food Survey. While these trends are consistent with the salt-hypertension hypothesis, the picture is confused by an increase in meals eaten outside the home, by the consumption of more processed food, and by a higher prevalence of refrigerators. Other events, such as medical treatment of hypertension or changes in the case fatality rate, could have contributed to the decline in stroke mortality. This secular trend analysis, using available data, does not clarify the salt-hypertension debate. PMID:6875440

Health tourism on the rise? Evidence from the Balance of Payments Statistics.

PubMed

Loh, Chung-Ping A

2014-09-01

The study assesses the presence and magnitude of global trends in health tourism using health-related travel (HRT) spending reported in the International Monetary Fund's Balance of Payments Statistics database. Linear regression and quantile regression are applied to estimate secular trends of the import and export of HRT based on a sample of countries from 2003 to 2009. The results show that from 2003 to 2009 the import and export of health tourism rose among countries with a high volume of such activities (accounting for the upper 40% of the countries), but not among those with a low volume. The uneven growth in health tourism has generated greater contrast between countries with high and low volumes of health tourism activities. However, the growth in the total import of health tourism did not outpace the population growth, implying that in general the population's tendency to engage in health tourism remained static.

Plate motion and the secular shift of the mean pole

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, H.; Carpenter, L.; Agreen, R. W.

1973-01-01

The global plate motion indicates that changes in the products of inertia of the earth due to tectonic plate movement may provide a secular shift of the mean pole. A mathematical procedure for calculating this shift based on the plate theory is presented. Explicit expressions were obtained for the dependence of the secular polar shift on the dimensions and locations of the plate boundaries. Numerical results show that the secular motion of the mean pole is 0.0002 sec/year in the direction of 67 W. Hence, it is deduced that the influence of the plate motion on the secular polar shift may account for 10% of the observed value.

Trends in obesity and energy supply in the WHO MONICA Project.

PubMed

Silventoinen, K; Sans, S; Tolonen, H; Monterde, D; Kuulasmaa, K; Kesteloot, H; Tuomilehto, J

2004-05-01

To examine the relationship between secular trends in energy supply and body mass index (BMI) among several countries. Aggregate level analyses of annually reported country food data against anthropometric data collected in independent cross-sectional samples from 34 populations in 21 countries from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s. Population randomly selected participants aged 35-64 y. BMI data were obtained from the WHO MONICA Project. Food energy supply data were derived from the Food Balance Sheet of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Mean BMI as well as the prevalence of overweight (BMI > or =25 kg/m2) increased in virtually all Western European countries, Australia, the USA, and China. Decreasing trends in BMI were seen in Central and Eastern European countries. Increasing trends in total energy supply per capita were found in most high-income countries and China while decreasing trends existed in Eastern European countries. Between country differences in temporal trends of total energy supply per capita explained 41% of the variation of trends in mean BMI; the effect was similar upon the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Trends in percent of energy supply from total fat per capita had a slight effect on the trends in mean BMI (+7% increment in R2) when the total energy supply per capita was adjusted for, while energy supply from total sweeteners per capita had no additional effect. Increasing energy supply is closely associated with the increase of overweight and obesity in western countries. This emphasizes the importance of dietary issues when coping with the obesity epidemic.

Capacity of Physiotherapy Workforce Production in Thailand: Public-Private Mix, Secular Trend and Geographic Distribution.

PubMed

Kaewsawang, Sarinee; Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi; Vongsirinavarat, Mantana

2016-06-01

In Thailand, the shortage of physiotherapists has been an increasing concern because of increased health burden from demographic and epidemiologic changes. This study aims to analyse the current situation of the physiotherapy workforce production system, secular trend, geographical distribution and comparison of public and private physiotherapy training institutes. Longitudinal data related to production capacity of the physiotherapy institutes were applied. Data from 2008 to 2012 were obtained from all 16 physiotherapy institutes in Thailand. Data during 2000-2007 were also retrieved from annual reports from the Ministry of Education. Descriptive statistics were initially used. Comparison was made between public and private physiotherapy institutes in terms of the number of students admitted and graduated, number of teachers, annual tuition fee, student-teacher ratio and dropout rate within 1 year. Predictive factors for graduation within 4 years were determined using logistic regression. In Thailand, there was an average of 800 physiotherapy graduates per year. New private institutes have been recently established and have steadily increased student admission rates. However, this has resulted in a high student-teacher ratio (median 7.1, inter-quartile range (IQR) 5.9-10.0). The first-year dropout rate in 2012 was 29.1%. Geographically, the majority of the institutes are clustered in the central region. Multivariate analysis revealed significantly lower probability of graduation within 4 years among students admitted to the private institutes and those in non-north-east region. The production capacity of the physiotherapy workforce is below an estimated need. Private physiotherapy institutes need more support to improve the situation of staff shortages and student graduation rates. The non-central regions should be encouraged to produce more physiotherapists. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Climatic influences on human body size and proportions: ecological adaptations and secular trends.

PubMed

Katzmarzyk, P T; Leonard, W R

1998-08-01

This study reevaluates the long-standing observation that human morphology varies with climate. Data on body mass, the body mass index [BMI; mass (kg)/stature (m)2], the surface area/body mass ratio, and relative sitting height (RSH; sitting height/stature) were obtained for 223 male samples and 195 female samples derived from studies published since D.F. Roberts' landmark paper "Body weight, race, and climate" in 1953 (Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 11:533-558). Current analyses indicate that body mass varies inversely with mean annual temperature in males (r=-0.27, P < 0.001) and females (r=-0.28, P < 0.001), as does the BMI (males: r=-0.22, P=0.001; females: r=-0.30, P < 0.001). The surface area/body mass ratio is positively correlated with temperature in both sexes (males: r=0.29, P < 0.001; females: r=0.34, P < 0.001), whereas the relationship between RSH and temperature is negative (males: r=-0.37, P < 0.001; females: r=-0.46, P < 0.001). These results are consistent with previous work showing that humans follow the ecological rules of Bergmann and Allen. However, the slope of the best-fit regressions between measures of body mass (i.e., mass, BMI, and surface area/mass) and temperature are more modest than those presented by Roberts. These differences appear to be attributable to secular trends in mass, particularly among tropical populations. Body mass and the BMI have increased over the last 40 years, whereas the surface area/body mass ratio has decreased. These findings indicate that, although climatic factors continue to be significant correlates of world-wide variation in human body size and morphology, differential changes in nutrition among tropical, developing world populations have moderated their influence.

Dental Caries in American Indian Toddlers after a Community-Based Beverage Intervention

PubMed Central

Maupomé, Gerardo; Karanja, Njeri; Ritenbaugh, Cheryl; Lutz, Tam; Aickin, Mikel; Becker, Thomas

2014-01-01

Objective/Setting The Toddler Overweight and Tooth decay prevention Study (TOTS) was an overweight and early childhood caries (ECC) project in the Pacific Northwest USA. It targeted American Indian (AI) toddlers from birth, to effect changes in breastfeeding and sweetened beverage consumption. Design/Intervention/Participants The intervention cohort was children born in three communities during 12 months; expectant mothers were identified through prenatal visits, and recruited by tribal coordinators. The local comparison cohorts were children in those communities who were 18–30 months at study start. A control longitudinal cohort consisted of annual samples of children aged 18–30 months in a fourth community, supplying secular trends. Outcome measures d1–2mfs was used to identify incident caries in intervention, comparison, and control cohorts after 18-to-30 months of follow-up in 2006. Results No missing or filled teeth were found. For d1t, all three intervention cohorts showed statistically significant downward intervention effects, decreases of between 0.300 and 0.631 in terms of the fraction of affected mouths. The results for d2t were similar but of smaller magnitudes, decreases of between 0.342 and 0.449; these results met the 0.05 level for significance in two of three cases. In light of an estimated secular increase in dental caries in the control site, all three intervention cohorts showed improvements in both d1t and d2t. Conclusions Simple interventions targeting sweetened beverage availability (in combination with related measures) reduced high tooth decay trends, and were both feasible and acceptable to the AI communities we studied. PMID:21305835

Higher education and more physical activity limit the development of obesity in a Swedish rural population. The Skaraborg Project.

PubMed

Nyholm, M; Gullberg, B; Haglund, B; Råstam, L; Lindblad, U

2008-03-01

To investigate the prevalence and the secular trends of obesity in a rural Swedish community with emphasis on the association with socioeconomic status and lifestyle. The Skaraborg Project cross-sectional population surveys were conducted in Vara, a rural community in the southwest of Sweden, every fifth year between 1977 and 2002. A total of 3365 residents (1634 men and 1731 women) aged 30-60 years. Obesity was defined as body mass index> or =30 kg m(-2). Information on ethnicity, marital status, socioeconomic status and lifestyle was collected by a questionnaire. In 1977-1982, the average prevalence of obesity was 14% in both men and women, and in 2002, the prevalence of obesity was 19% in men and 21% in women. The age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) of obesity in 2002 was 1.48 (1.00, 2.20) in men and 1.41 (0.97, 2.05) in women. Without the simultaneous increase in the level of education and leisure-time physical activity (LTPA), the risk of developing obesity could have been considerably higher; in men OR=3.08 (1.88, 5.03) and in women OR=2.72 (1.66, 4.44). In multivariate models, higher levels of education and LTPA were associated with protective effects on obesity in both men (OR=0.60 (0.43, 0.83) and OR=0.50 (0.45, 0.79)) and women (OR=0.73 (0.54, 0.98) and OR=0.57 (0.42, 0.78)), respectively. This study revealed an upward secular trend in the prevalence of obesity in a rural community in Sweden. Increasing levels of education and LTPA limit this ongoing development of obesity. Public health strategies for the prevention of obesity should consider the special condition in rural environments.

Eight years secular trends of physical self-esteem among Swedish adolescents.

PubMed

Raustorp, Anders

2010-01-01

The main aim of this study was to explore secular trends between 2000 and 2008 in physical self esteem by comparing cross sectional cohorts of young adolescents. Data of physical self esteem, mean steps per day and body mass index (BMI) were collected in comparable cohorts comprising 191 (103 girls) (2000) and 170 adolescents (101 girls) (2008) in a middle class Swedish community. There was a significant higher Global Self-esteem in the cohort 2008 compared with the 2000 cohort both in boys (p = .004) and girls (p = .018). Regarding Physical Self-worth, both boys and girls reported higher mean values in 2008, which were however not significant. Boys classified overweight/obese showed a significant lower value in Global Self-esteem (p = .001) in the 2008 cohort when compared with the overweight/obese in the 2000 cohort, but all other domains showed non significant differences. Girls classified overweight/obese showed a significant lower value in Physical Strength (p = .023), in the 2008 cohort when compared with the overweight/ obese in the 2000 cohort, but all other domains showed non significant differences. There was significantly higher Global Self-esteem in the cohort 2008 compared with the 2000 cohort both in boys and girls, and regarding Physical Self-worth, both boys and girls reported higher mean values in 2008 that were not significant. In the overweight/obese adolescents group, the only significant difference was a lower perceived Physical Strength in girls in 2008 and a significant lower Global Self-esteem in boys in 2008. Enhanced focus on physical activity in society and actions taken by the school might have influenced the result.

Morphometric distances among five ethnic groups and evaluation of the secular trend in historical Libya.

PubMed

Danubio, Maria Enrica; Martorella, Domenico; Rufo, Fabrizio; Vecchi, Elvira; Sanna, Emanuele

2011-01-01

This study analysed the variations, both in space and time, of 10 body dimensions and 2 anthropometric indexes of 745 adult males belonging to 5 ethnic groups of historical Lybia (el-Haràbi, el-Baraghìts, Marabtìn, Oases inhabitants and Tuareg). The data were collected in the years 1928 and 1932 by Puccioni and Cipriani, two Italian anthropologists. The aim was to reconstruct the biological history of Libya at the time, and thus contribute to the ongoing debate on the evolution of the biological standard of living in developing Countries. The subjects were analysed by ethnicity and by 10-year age groups, after adjusting for age. The results of ANCOVA and Tukey's post-hoc test show that among and between groups there are statistical significant differences overall for armspan, height, head breadth, bizygomatic breadth, biiliac breadth/height and head breadth/head length indexes. By means of the cluster analysis, the el-Haràbi, el-Baraghìts and Marabtìn groups cluster together, whereas the Tuareg and Oases inhabitants cluster separately one from the other and both from the other three ethnic groups. Within-group variations are not very marked in all ethnicities. In general, there is the tendency, not statistically significant, to the reduction and/or stasis of body dimensions from the older to the younger, and the differences are greater among the older than the younger age classes. In conclusion, it can be argued that these groups, all different culturally and geographically, were following the same tendency of stasis of the secular trend of the body dimensions considered in this study, and such stasis persisted since, at least, the last twenty years of the 19th century, when the older were born.

Secular trends and factors associated with overweight among Brazilian preschool children: PNSN-1989, PNDS-1996, and 2006/07.

PubMed

Silveira, Jonas Augusto C; Colugnati, Fernando Antônio B; Cocetti, Monize; Taddei, José Augusto A C

2014-01-01

to describe the secular trends in overweight among preschool children in the years 1989, 1996, and 2006, and to identify risk factors associated with this condition in 2006. anthropometric data from three surveys (1989, 1996, and 2006) with a representative sample of the population were analyzed. Overweight was defined as the weight-for-height Z-score. The multivariable models of overweight association with risk factors were generated by Poisson regression, and the estimates were shown as prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals (PR [95% CI]). throughout the 17-year period studied, the relative prevalence of overweight in preschoolers increased by 160% in Brazil, representing an increase of 9.4% per year. Based on data from the National Survey on Demography and Health of Women and Children - 2006/07, four multivariable models were created (macro-environmental, maternal, individual, and final model) assuming hierarchy among the risk factors. In the final model, only the following remained associated with overweight: regions South/Southeast (1.55 [1.17 to 2.06]), middle-class (1.35 [1.02 to 1.77]), maternal obesity (1.66 [1.22 to 2.27]), birth weight ≥ 3.9kg (1.87 [1.31 to 2.67]), and being an only child or having only one sibling (1.81 [1.31 to 2.49]). the prevalence of overweight among preschool children in Brazil has increased dramatically over the past 17 years, and it was higher in the 1996-2006 period. Future strategies for prevention and control of overweight in public health should focus or intensify actions in communities that are characterized by the presence of the risks identified in the present study. Copyright © 2013 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Reconstruction of secular variation in seawater sulfate concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Algeo, T. J.; Luo, G. M.; Song, H. Y.; Lyons, T. W.; Canfield, D. E.

2015-04-01

Long-term secular variation in seawater sulfate concentrations ([SO42-]SW) is of interest owing to its relationship to the oxygenation history of Earth's surface environment. In this study, we develop two complementary approaches for quantification of sulfate concentrations in ancient seawater and test their application to late Neoproterozoic (635 Ma) to Recent marine units. The "rate method" is based on two measurable parameters of paleomarine systems: (1) the S-isotope fractionation associated with microbial sulfate reduction (MSR), as proxied by Δ34SCAS-PY, and (2) the maximum rate of change in seawater sulfate, as proxied by &partial; δ 34SCAS/∂ t(max). The "MSR-trend method" is based on the empirical relationship of Δ34SCAS-PY to aqueous sulfate concentrations in 81 modern depositional systems. For a given paleomarine system, the rate method yields an estimate of maximum possible [SO42-]SW (although results are dependent on assumptions regarding the pyrite burial flux, FPY), and the MSR-trend method yields an estimate of mean [SO42-]SW. An analysis of seawater sulfate concentrations since 635 Ma suggests that [SO42-]SW was low during the late Neoproterozoic (<5 mM), rose sharply across the Ediacaran-Cambrian boundary (~5-10 mM), and rose again during the Permian (~10-30 mM) to levels that have varied only slightly since 250 Ma. However, Phanerozoic seawater sulfate concentrations may have been drawn down to much lower levels (~1-4 mM) during short (<~2 Myr) intervals of the Cambrian, Early Triassic, Early Jurassic, and Cretaceous as a consequence of widespread ocean anoxia, intense MSR, and pyrite burial. The procedures developed in this study offer potential for future high-resolution quantitative analyses of paleo-seawater sulfate concentrations.

Secular trends in the timing of skeletal maturation as assessed by the cervical vertebrae maturation method.

PubMed

Montasser, Mona A; Viana, Grace; Evans, Carla A

2017-04-01

To investigate the presence of secular trends in skeletal maturation of girls and boys as assessed by the use of cervical vertebrae bones. The study compared two main groups: the first included data collected from the Denver growth study (1930s to 1960s) and the second included data collected from recent pretreatment records (1980s to 2010s) of patients from the orthodontic clinic of a North American University. The records from the two groups were all for Caucasian subjects. The sample for each group included 78 lateral cephalographs for girls and the same number for boys. The age of the subjects ranged from 7 to 18 years. Cervical vertebrae maturation (CVM) stages were directly assessed from the radiographs according to the method described by Hassel and Farman in which six CVM stages were designated from cervical vertebrae 2, 3, and 4. The mean age of girls from the Denver growth study and girls from the university clinic in each of the six CVM stages was not different at P ≤0.05. However, the mean age of boys from the two groups was not different only in stage 3 (P = 0.139) and stage 4 (P = 0.211). The results showed no evidence to indicate a tendency for earlier skeletal maturation of girls or boys. Boys in the university group started their skeletal maturation later than boys in the Denver group and completed their maturation earlier. Gender was a significant factor affecting skeletal maturation stages in both Denver and university groups. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Orthodontic Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Temporal variation in the mating structure of Sanday, Orkney Islands.

PubMed

Brennan, E R; Relethford, J H

1983-01-01

Pedigree and vital statistics data from the population of Sanday, Orkney Islands, Scotland, were used to assess temporal changes in population structure. Secular trends in patterns of mate choice were analysed for three separate birth cohorts of spouses: 1855-1884, 1885-1924 and 1925-1964. The degree to which mating was random or assortative with respect to both genealogical and geographic distance was determined by comparing average characteristics of all potential mates of married males with those of actual wives. We integrated this procedure, originally developed by Dyke (1971), into a three-fold investigation of population structure: (1) comparison of random and non-random components of relatedness as measured from pedigree data; (2) an analysis of marital distance distributions for actual and potential mates of married males; and (3) the relationship between genealogical relatedness and geographic distance. As population size decreased from 1881 to the present, total kinship and spatial distances between spouses increased. Whereas the random component of relatedness increased over time, consanguinity avoidance was sufficient to decrease the total coefficient of kinship over time. Part of the increase in consanguinity avoidance was associated with isolate breakdown, as distances between island-born spouses, as well as the total amount of off-island migration, increased from the mid-nineteenth century to the present. Mate choice was influenced by geographic distance for all time periods, although this effect diminished over time. Since decreases in population size, concomitant with increases in consanguinity avoidance and community exogamy, have probably occurred quite frequently in small human populations, as well as in rural Western communities in the past century, observed secular trends illustrate the potential for change in population structure characteristic of isolate breakdown.

Secular trends of pregnancies in women with inflammatory connective tissue disease.

PubMed

Wallenius, Marianne; Salvesen, Kjell Å; Daltveit, Anne K; Skomsvoll, Johan F

2015-11-01

This study examined secular trends in reproductive outcome in women with inflammatory connective tissue disease compared with reference deliveries from the general population. Historical cohort study based on data registered in the Medical Birth Register of Norway from 1967 to 2009. The study included singleton births in women recorded with connective tissue disease (n = 851) and reference deliveries from the general population (n = 2 437 110). Births were stratified in four periods, 1967-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2009. Associations between connective tissue disease and maternal and perinatal outcomes by decade were assessed in logistic regression analyses and adjusted for maternal age at delivery and parity. In the 1970s, around 2.7 deliveries/year were registered for women with connective tissue disease (0.004% of all deliveries). This increased to 42 deliveries/year (0.07% of all deliveries) after 2000. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for cesarean section were 5.0 (95% CI 2.1-11.9) in the first and 1.8 (95% CI 1.4-2.3) in the last period. For preterm delivery the aOR decreased from 4.9 (95% CI 2.1-11.4) to 3.1 (95% CI 2.3-4.2) and the aOR for birthweight <2500 g changed from 7.3 (95% CI 3.3-16.3) to 4.1 (95% CI 3.0-5.6). An increasing number of births were observed over time among women with connective tissue disease. Adverse pregnancy outcomes were more common among women with connective tissue disease but risks have decreased over time. © 2015 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

The Changing Epidemiology of Human T-Cell Lymphotropic Virus Type 1 Infection in Peruvian Female Sex Workers, 1993–2010

PubMed Central

Stewart, Jenell; Heitzinger, Kristen; Pollett, Simon; Calderón, Martha; Alarcón, Jorge; Ton, Thanh G. N.; Zunt, Joseph R.

2017-01-01

Human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) was the first human retrovirus to be reported and is associated with neoplastic, neurological, autoimmune, and infectious complications. HTLV-1 is endemic in Peru, with the highest prevalence reported among commercial sex workers. Seroprevalence data collected from Peruvian female sex workers (FSWs) working in Callao over three study periods between 1993 and 2010 were used to examine the secular trend in HTLV-1 prevalence. Between 1993 and 2010, the prevalence of HTLV-1 decreased significantly from 14.5% to 3.1% (P < 0.01). The prevalence of HTLV-1 seropositivity differed significantly by birth cohort (1922–1959, 1960–1969, 1970–1979, and 1980–1992), and for each of the four birth cohorts, the prevalence did not significantly decrease by screening year (P > 0.07). There were no cases of HTLV-1 detected among FSW born after 1979 (N = 224). Participant characteristics associated with HTLV-1 seropositivity were birth in the Andes Mountains region, age, increased time in sex work, younger age of starting sex work, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seropositivity. The secular trend in declining prevalence persisted after adjustment for age, time in sex work, place of birth, and HIV serostatus, with the odds of HTLV-1 infection decreasing approximately 16% per year (adjusted odds ratio = 0.84, 95% confidence interval = 0.78, 0.90). The increasing use of condoms by later birth cohorts noted in our analysis, as well as the increasing availability of free condoms provided by the Peruvian government—which started in the late 1980s before this study— may have been responsible for declining HTLV seroprevalence. PMID:27879458

The Impact of the Medicaid Health Care-Associated Condition Program on Mediastinitis Following Coronary Artery Bypass Graft

PubMed Central

Hsu, Heather; Kawai, Alison Tse; Wang, Rui; Jentzsch, Maximilian S.; Rhee, Chanu; Horan, Kelly; Jin, Robert; Goldmann, Donald; Lee, Grace M.

2018-01-01

Objective In 2012, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services expanded a 2008 program that eliminated additional Medicare payment for mediastinitis following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) to include Medicaid. We aimed to evaluate the impact of this Medicaid program on mediastinitis rates reported by the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) compared with rates of a condition not targeted by the program (deep space surgical site infection [SSI] after knee replacement). Design interrupted time series with comparison group. Methods We included surveillance data from non-federal acute care hospitals participating in NHSN and reporting CABG or knee replacement outcomes from 1/2009–6/2017. We examined the Medicaid program’s impact on NHSN-reported infection rates, adjusting for secular trends. Data analysis used generalized estimating equations with robust sandwich variance estimators. Results During the study period, 196 study hospitals reported 273,984 CABGs to NHSN, resulting in 970 mediastinitis cases (0.35%); 294 hospitals reported 555,395 knee replacements, with 1,751 resultant deep space SSIs (0.32%). There were no significant changes in incidence of either condition during the study. Mediastinitis models showed no effect of the 2012 Medicaid program on either secular trend during the post- vs. pre-program time periods (p-value=0.70) or immediate program effect (p-value=0.83). Results were similar in sensitivity analyses when adjusting for hospital characteristics, restricting to hospitals with consistent NHSN reporting, or incorporating a program implementation roll-in period. Knee replacement models also showed no program effect. Conclusions The 2012 Medicaid program to eliminate additional payments for mediastinitis following CABG had no impact on reported mediastinitis rates. PMID:29669607

Secular chaos and its application to Mercury, hot Jupiters, and the organization of planetary systems.

PubMed

Lithwick, Yoram; Wu, Yanqin

2014-09-02

In the inner solar system, the planets' orbits evolve chaotically, driven primarily by secular chaos. Mercury has a particularly chaotic orbit and is in danger of being lost within a few billion years. Just as secular chaos is reorganizing the solar system today, so it has likely helped organize it in the past. We suggest that extrasolar planetary systems are also organized to a large extent by secular chaos. A hot Jupiter could be the end state of a secularly chaotic planetary system reminiscent of the solar system. However, in the case of the hot Jupiter, the innermost planet was Jupiter (rather than Mercury) sized, and its chaotic evolution was terminated when it was tidally captured by its star. In this contribution, we review our recent work elucidating the physics of secular chaos and applying it to Mercury and to hot Jupiters. We also present results comparing the inclinations of hot Jupiters thus produced with observations.

Secular chaos and its application to Mercury, hot Jupiters, and the organization of planetary systems

PubMed Central

Lithwick, Yoram; Wu, Yanqin

2014-01-01

In the inner solar system, the planets’ orbits evolve chaotically, driven primarily by secular chaos. Mercury has a particularly chaotic orbit and is in danger of being lost within a few billion years. Just as secular chaos is reorganizing the solar system today, so it has likely helped organize it in the past. We suggest that extrasolar planetary systems are also organized to a large extent by secular chaos. A hot Jupiter could be the end state of a secularly chaotic planetary system reminiscent of the solar system. However, in the case of the hot Jupiter, the innermost planet was Jupiter (rather than Mercury) sized, and its chaotic evolution was terminated when it was tidally captured by its star. In this contribution, we review our recent work elucidating the physics of secular chaos and applying it to Mercury and to hot Jupiters. We also present results comparing the inclinations of hot Jupiters thus produced with observations. PMID:24367108

Identification of asteroid dynamical families

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valsecchi, G. B.; Carusi, A.; Knezevic, Z.; Kresak, L.; Williams, J. G.

1989-01-01

Problems involved in the identification of asteroid dynamical families are discussed, and some methodological guidelines are presented. Asteroid family classifications are reviewed, and differences in the existing classifications are examined with special attention given to the effects of observational selection on the classification of family membership. The paper also discusses various theories of secular perturbations, including the classical linear theory, the theory of Williams (1969), and the higher order/degree theory of Yuasa (1973).

The Shock and Vibration Digest. Volume 16, Number 11

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-11-01

wave [19], a secular equation for Rayleigh waves on ing, seismic risk, and related problems are discussed. the surface of an anisotropic half-space...waves in an !so- tive equation of an elastic-plastic rack medium was....... tropic linear elastic half-space with plane material used; the coefficient...pair of semi-linear hyperbolic partial differential -- " Conditions under which the equations of motion equations governing slow variations in amplitude

Euthanasia, physician-assisted suicide, and Christianity's positive relationship to the world.

PubMed

Delkeskamp-Hayes, Corinna

2003-01-01

This essay addresses the problem of communication between Christianity and the secular world in an area where the latter tends to oppose the moral norms endorsed by the former. How, in the interest of missionary outreach (and with which understandings of what such outreach involves) can the language barriers be bridged? Whereas the Roman Catholic natural law tradition posits a neutral common ground of (traditional or hermeneutical) rationality between Christianity and the world, an Ebeling- and Barth-modified Lutheranism engages in an argument ad hominem by seizing upon an admitted deficiency within that world, and by recommending Christianity for mending that deficiency. Both positions differ from the Evangelical claim that since that which the world politically values is derived from Christianity, it must remain subject to Christianity's moral legislation. An entirely different approach to the communication- and outreach-problem is taken by Orthodox Christianity: The gulf which separates it from the world is acknowledged, and the possibility of trans-gulf-traffic is referred to God's grace. It is only this latter model, however, which preserves Christianity's theological terms (such as "Scripture", "law", and "holiness") from common-ground-securing, deficiency-mending, or authority-imposing secularizing, and thus from compromising that very theological context into which communicative outreach endeavors were to invite.

Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

PubMed

Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

2015-03-28

Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], p<0·0001). Starting in March, 2008, the number of cases of infective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, p<0·0001). By March, 2013, 35 more cases per month were reported than would have been expected had the previous trend continued. This increase in the incidence of infective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis have fallen substantially and the incidence of infective endocarditis has increased significantly in England since introduction of the 2008 NICE guidelines. Heart Research UK, Simplyhealth, and US National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Declining incidence of low-trauma knee fractures in elderly women: nationwide statistics in Finland between 1970 and 2006.

PubMed

Kannus, P; Niemi, S; Parkkari, J; Sievänen, H; Palvanen, M

2009-01-01

The study assessed the recent secular trend in the incidence of low-trauma knee fractures among older Finns in the years 1970-2006. The clear rise in women's fracture incidence from early 1970s until the late 1990s was followed by a declining fracture rate. Exact reasons for the decline are unknown, but a cohort effect toward a healthier female population with improved functionality and reduced risk of injurious slips, trips and falls could partly explain the phenomenon. Although low-trauma fractures of elderly adults have been recognized as a major public health concern in modern societies with aging populations, fresh nationwide information on their secular trends is sparse. We determined the current trend in the number and incidence (per 100,000 persons) of low-trauma knee fractures among elderly people in Finland, an EU country with a well-defined white population of 5.3 million, by taking into account all persons 60 years of age or older who were admitted to our hospitals for primary treatment of such fractures from 1970 to 2006. The number and incidence of low-trauma knee fractures among 60-year-old or older Finnish women sharply rose between 1970 and 1997, from 218 (number) and 55 (incidence) in 1970 to 733 and 124 in 1997. However, thereafter both the number and incidence of fractures have continuously declined so that there were only 626 fractures in these women in 2006 (incidence 94). In the age-adjusted fracture incidence, the findings were similar. During 1970-1997, the age-adjusted incidence of low-trauma knee fractures in our elderly women clearly rose (from 60 to 118), but thereafter, this incidence declined to 85 in 2006. In men, the fracture incidence did not show consistent trend changes over time (30 in 1970 and 36 in 2006). The sharp rise in the incidence of low-trauma knee fractures in Finnish elderly women from early 1970s until late 1990s has been followed by a declining fracture rate. Exact reasons for this are unknown, but a cohort effect toward a healthier aging female population with improved functional ability and reduced risk of injurious slips, trips and falls cannot be excluded.

Increasing trends of sleep complaints in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Santos-Silva, Rogerio; Bittencourt, Lia Rita Azeredo; Pires, Maria Laura Nogueira; de Mello, Marco Tulio; Taddei, Jose Augusto; Benedito-Silva, Ana Amelia; Pompeia, Celine; Tufik, Sergio

2010-06-01

The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence of sleep habits and complaints and to estimate the secular trends through three population-based surveys carried out in 1987, 1995, and 2007 in the general adult population of the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Surveys were performed using the same three-stage cluster-sampling technique in three consecutive decades to obtain representative samples of the inhabitants of Sao Paulo with respect to gender, age (20-80 years), and socio-economic status. Sample sizes were 1000 volunteers in 1987 and 1995 surveys and 1101 in a 2007 survey. In each survey, the UNIFESP Sleep Questionnaire was administered face-to-face in each household selected. For 1987, 1995, and 2007, respectively, difficulty initiating sleep (weighted frequency %; 95% CI) [(13.9; 11.9-16.2), (19.15; 16.8-21.6), and (25.0; 22.5-27.8)], difficulty maintaining sleep [(15.8; 13.7-18.2), (27.6; 24.9-30.4), and (36.5; 33.5-39.5)], and early morning awakening [(10.6; 8.8-12.7), (14.2; 12.2-16.5), and (26.7; 24-29.6)] increased in the general population over time, mostly in women. Habitual snoring was the most commonly reported complaint across decades and was more prevalent in men. There was no statistically significant difference in snoring complaints between 1987 (21.5; 19.1-24.2) and 1995 (19.0; 16.7-21.6), but a significant increase was noted in 2007 (41.7; 38.6-44.8). Nightmares, bruxism, leg cramps, and somnambulism complaints were significantly higher in 2007 compared to 1987 and 1995. All were more frequent in women. This is the first study comparing sleep complaints in probabilistic population-based samples from the same metropolitan area, using the same methodology across three consecutive decades. Clear trends of increasing sleep complaints were observed, which increased faster between 1995 and 2007 than from 1987 to 1995. These secular trends should be considered a relevant public health issue and support the need for development of health care and educational strategies to supply the population's increased need for information on sleep disorders and their consequences. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Secular trend analysis of lung cancer incidence in Sihui city, China between 1987 and 2011.

PubMed

Du, Jin-Lin; Lin, Xiao; Zhang, Li-Fang; Li, Yan-Hua; Xie, Shang-Hang; Yang, Meng-Jie; Guo, Jie; Lin, Er-Hong; Liu, Qing; Hong, Ming-Huang; Huang, Qi-Hong; Liao, Zheng-Er; Cao, Su-Mei

2015-07-31

With industrial and econom ic development in recent decades in South China, cancer incidence may have changed due to the changing lifestyle and environment. However, the trends of lung cancer and the roles of smoking and other environmental risk factors in the development of lung cancer in rural areas of South China remain unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore the lung cancer incidence trends and the possible causes of these trends. Joinpoint regression analysis and the age-period-cohort (APC) model were used to analyze the lung cancer incidence trends in Sihui, Guangdong province, China between 1987 and 2011, and explore the possible causes of these trends. A total of 2,397 lung cancer patients were involved in this study. A 3-fold increase in the incidence of lung cancer in both sexes was observed over the 25-year period. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that while the incidence continued to increase steadily in females during the entire period, a sharp acceleration was observed in males starting in 2005. The full APC model was selected to describe age, period, and birth cohort effects on lung cancer incidence trends in Sihui. The age cohorts in both sexes showed a continuously significant increase in the relative risk (RR) of lung cancer, with a peak in the eldest age group (80-84 years). The RR of lung cancer showed a fluctuating curve in both sexes. The birth cohorts identified an increased trend in both males and females; however, males had a plateau in the youngest cohorts who were born during 1955-1969. Increasing trends of the incidence of lung cancer in Sihui were dominated by the effects of age and birth cohorts. Social aging, smoking, and environmental changes may play important roles in such trends.

Committed Seventh-Day Adventist Students at Secular Institutions of Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anthony, LaShonda R.

2013-01-01

The experiences of Seventh-day Adventist students at secular universities was examined. Seven women and two men attending universities in Michigan and New York were interviewed. The researcher employed a heuristically guided phenomenological method to get rich descriptions of the participants' experiences in the secular university setting.…

Secular and Koranic Literacies in South Asia: From Colonisation to Contemporary Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maddox, Bryan

2007-01-01

This paper explores the distinction between "secular" and "Koranic" schooling and literacy in South Asia. It begins by tracing an archaeology of the distinction between secular "literacy" and religious "illiteracy". It locates the emergence of the distinction in the colonial census of the 19th century, in…

Rethinking Institutional Secularization as an (Im)possible "Policy"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gomez Caride, Ezequiel

2015-01-01

The paper analyzes through a genealogical discourse analysis how religion as a cultural practice escapes into the borders of state institutions. While most studies about secularization focus on institutional aspects, such approaches tend to link state secularist policies with cultural secularization. This essay argues that state promotion of…

The Jesuit Imaginary: Higher Education in a Secular Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hendrickson, Daniel Scott

2012-01-01

The philosopher Charles Taylor argues in "A Secular Age" (2007) that people who live in secular cultures are losing the capacity to experience genuine "fullness." Described by Taylor as a philosophical-anthropological conception of human flourishing that corresponds with existential senses of meaning and purpose, fullness is…

A study of alternative schemes for extrapolation of secular variation at observatories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alldredge, L.R.

1976-01-01

The geomagnetic secular variation is not well known. This limits the useful life of geomagnetic models. The secular variation is usually assumed to be linear with time. It is found that attenative schemes that employ quasiperiodic variations from internal and external sources can improve the extrapolation of secular variation at high-quality observatories. Although the schemes discussed are not yet fully applicable in worldwide model making, they do suggest some basic ideas that may be developed into useful tools in future model work. ?? 1976.

Loners, Groupies, and Long-term Eccentricity (and Inclination) Behavior: Insights from Secular Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Laerhoven, Christa L.

2015-05-01

Considering the secular dynamics of multi-planet systems provides substantial insight into the interactions between planets in those systems. Secular interactions are those that don't involve knowing where a planet is along its orbit, and they dominate when planets are not involved in mean motion resonances. These interactions exchange angular momentum among the planets, evolving their eccentricities and inclinations. To second order in the planets' eccentricities and inclinations, the eccentricity and inclination perturbations are decoupled. Given the right variable choice, the relevant differential equations are linear and thus the eccentricity and inclination behaviors can be described as a sum of eigenmodes. Since the underlying structure of the secular eigenmodes can be calculated using only the planets' masses and semi-major axes, one can elucidate the eccentricity and inclination behavior of planets in exoplanet systems even without knowing the planets' current eccentricities and inclinations. I have calculated both the eccentricity and inclination secular eigenmodes for the population of known multi-planet systems whose planets have well determined masses and periods. Using this catalog of secular character, I will discuss the prevalence of dynamically grouped planets ('groupies') versus dynamically uncoupled planets ('loners') and how this relates to the exoplanets' long-term eccentricity and inclination behavior. I will also touch on the distribution of the secular eigenfreqiencies.

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975-2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Solbraa, Ane Kristiansen; Holme, Ingar Morten; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Resaland, Geir Kåre; Aadland, Eivind; Anderssen, Sigmund Alfred

2014-06-07

Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975-2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP.

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975–2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Methods Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975–2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Results Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Conclusions Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP. PMID:24906521

A paradise for LGBT rights? The paradox of Belgium.

PubMed

Eeckhout, Bart; Paternotte, David

2011-01-01

How is it that a small country such as Belgium, with its reputation of relative conservatism, has jumped to the forefront of LGBT-friendly nations when it comes to the extension of rights to, and implementation of government policies for, its LGBT population? The analysis offered here focuses on a combination of six causes: the impact of wider secularization processes; the political history and culture of the country; the organization of especially the Flemish LGBT movement and reasons for its political effectiveness; mainstream social trends in national scapegoating hierarchies; the overall media environment; and the window of opportunity opened by the political landslide of 1999.

SPIRAL PATTERNS IN PLANETESIMAL CIRCUMBINARY DISKS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Demidova, Tatiana V.; Shevchenko, Ivan I., E-mail: iis@gao.spb.ru

Planet formation scenarios and the observed planetary dynamics in binaries pose a number of theoretical challenges, especially concerning circumbinary planetary systems. We explore the dynamical stirring of a planetesimal circumbinary disk in the epoch when the gas component disappears. For this purpose, following theoretical approaches by Heppenheimer and Moriwaki and Nakagawa, we develop a secular theory of the dynamics of planetesimals in circumbinary disks. If a binary is eccentric and its components have unequal masses, a spiral density wave is generated, engulfing the disk on a secular timescale, which may exceed 10{sup 7} yr, depending on the problem parameters. The spiralmore » pattern is transient; thus, its observed presence may betray a system’s young age. We explore the pattern both analytically and in numerical experiments. The derived analytical spiral is a modified lituus; it matches the numerical density wave in the gas-free case perfectly. Using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics scheme, we explore the effect of residual gas on the wave propagation.« less

Infrequent visitors of the Kozai kind: the dynamical lives of 2012 FC71, 2014 EK24, 2014 QD364, and 2014 UR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de la Fuente Marcos, C.; de la Fuente Marcos, R.

2015-08-01

Context. Asteroids with semi-major axes very close to that of a host planet can avoid node crossings when their nodal points are at perihelion and at aphelion. This layout protects the asteroids from close encounters, and eventual collisions, with the host planet. Aims: Here, we study the short-term dynamical evolution of four recently discovered near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) - 2012 FC71, 2014 EK24, 2014 QD364, and 2014 UR - that follow very Earth-like orbits. Methods: Our analysis is based on results of direct N-body calculations that use the most updated ephemerides and include perturbations from the eight major planets, the Moon, the barycentre of the Pluto-Charon system, and the three largest asteroids. Results: These four NEAs exhibit an orbital evolution unlike any other known near-Earth object (NEO). Beyond horseshoe, tadpole, or quasi-satellite trajectories, they follow co-orbital passing orbits relative to the Earth within the Kozai domain. Our calculations show that secular interactions induce librations of their relative argument of perihelion with respect to our planet but also to Venus, Mars, and Jupiter. Secular chaos is also present. The size of this transient population is probably large. Conclusions: Although some of these NEAs can remain orbitally stable for many thousands of years, their secular dynamics are substantially more complicated than commonly thought and cannot be properly described within the framework of the three-body problem alone owing to the overlapping of multiple secular resonances. Objects in this group are amongst the most atypical NEOs regarding favourable visibility windows because these are separated in time by many decades or even several centuries. Figures 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 18, Table 2, and Appendix A are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Trends in adult cardiovascular disease risk factors and their socio-economic patterning in the Scottish population 1995–2008: cross-sectional surveys

PubMed Central

Davies, Carolyn; Gray, Linsay; Bromley, Catherine; Capewell, Simon; Leyland, Alastair H

2011-01-01

Objectives To examine secular and socio-economic changes in cardiovascular disease risk factor prevalences in the Scottish population. This could contribute to a better understanding of why the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Scotland has recently stalled along with a widening of socio-economic inequalities. Design Four Scottish Health Surveys 1995, 1998, 2003 and 2008 (6190, 6656, 5497 and 4202 respondents, respectively, aged 25–64 years) were used to examine gender-stratified, age-standardised prevalences of smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, discretionary salt use and self-reported diabetes or hypertension. Prevalences were determined according to education and social class. Inequalities were assessed using the slope index of inequality, and time trends were determined using linear regression. Results There were moderate secular declines in the prevalence of smoking, excess alcohol consumption and physical inactivity. Smoking prevalence declined between 1995 and 2008 from 33.4% (95% CI 31.8% to 35.0%) to 29.9% (27.9% to 31.8%) for men and from 36.1% (34.5% to 37.8%) to 27.4% (25.5% to 29.3%) for women. Adverse trends in prevalence were noted for self-reported diabetes and hypertension. Over the four surveys, the diabetes prevalence increased from 1.9% (1.4% to 2.4%) to 3.6% (2.8% to 4.4%) for men and from 1.7% (1.2% to 2.1%) to 3.0% (2.3% to 3.7%) for women. Socio-economic inequalities were evident for almost all risk factors, irrespective of the measure used. These social gradients appeared to be maintained over the four surveys. An exception was self-reported diabetes where, although inequalities were small, the gradient increased over time. Alcohol consumption was unique in consistently showing an inverse gradient, especially for women. Conclusions There has been only a moderate decline in behavioural cardiovascular risk factor prevalences since 1995, with increases in self-reported diabetes and hypertension. Adverse socio-economic gradients have remained unchanged. These findings could help explain the recent stagnation in coronary heart disease mortalities and persistence of related inequalities. PMID:22021783

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in anthropometric status in a population undergoing the nutritional transition: data from 1982, 1993 and 2004 pelotas birth cohort studies

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Socioeconomic inequalities in child nutrition may change rapidly over time, particularly in populations undergoing the nutrition transition. Yet, the few available studies are repeated cross-sectional surveys. By studying three prospective birth cohorts in the same city over a period of more than two decades, we describe secular trends in overweight and stunting at different ages, according to socioeconomic position. Methods Population-based birth cohort studies were launched in the city of Pelotas (Brazil) in 1982, 1993 and 2004, with follow-up visits at twelve, 24 and 48 months. Children were weighed and measured at every visit. Z-scores of length/height-for-age and body mass index-for-age were calculated using the WHO Child Growth Standards. The slope and relative indices of inequality, based on family income quintiles, were estimated for each follow-up visit. Results Between the 1982 and 2004 cohorts, stunting among four-year-olds declined (from 10.9% to 3.6%), while overweight increased (from 7.6% to 12.3%). In every visit, stunting prevalence was inversely related to income. Both absolute and relative inequalities declined over time; among four-year-olds stunting dropped from 26.0% in the 1982 cohort to 6.7% in the 2004 cohort in the poorest group, while in the richest group stunting prevalence dropped from 2.7% in 1982 to 1.1% in the 2004 cohort study. The secular trend towards increased overweight was evident for four-year-olds, in almost all socioeconomic groups, but not among one and two-year-olds. Among four-year old children, overweight prevalence increased in all income quintiles, by 130% in the middle-income group, 64% in the poorest and 41% in the richest group. Conclusions The decline in stunting is remarkable, but the increase in overweight among four-year olds – particularly among the poorest and the middle-income groups– requires concerted efforts to prevent the long term consequences of child overweight. PMID:22776157

Assessing the effects of the Spanish partial smoking ban on cardiovascular and respiratory diseases: methodological issues.

PubMed

Galán, Iñaki; Simón, Lorena; Flores, Víctor; Ortiz, Cristina; Fernández-Cuenca, Rafael; Linares, Cristina; Boldo, Elena; Medrano, María José; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2015-12-01

Recent research has assessed the impact of tobacco laws on cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity. In this study, we also examined whether the association between the implementation of the 2005 Spanish smoking ban and hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases varies according to the adjustment for potential confounders. Ecological time series analysis. Residents of Madrid and Barcelona cities (Spain). Data on daily emergency room admissions for acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and asthma derived from the 2003-2006 Spanish hospital admissions registry. Changes in admission rates between 2006 and the 2003-2005 period were estimated using additive Poisson models allowing for overdispersion adjusted for secular trend in admission, seasonality, day of the week, temperature, number of flu and acute respiratory infection cases, pollution levels, tobacco consumption prevalence and, for asthma cases, pollen count. In Madrid, fully adjusted models failed to detect significant changes in hospital admission rates for any disease during the study period. In Barcelona, however, hospital admissions decreased by 10.2% (95% CI 3.8% to 16.1%) for cerebrovascular diseases and by 16.0% (95% CI 7.0% to 24.1%) for COPD. Substantial changes in effect estimates were observed on adjustment for linear or quadratic trend. Effect estimates for asthma-related admissions varied substantially when adjusting for pollen count in Madrid, and for seasonality and tobacco consumption in Barcelona. Our results confirm that the potential impact of a smoking ban must be adjusted for the underlying secular trend. In asthma-related admissions, pollen count, seasonality and tobacco consumption must be specified in the model. The substantial variability in effects detected between the two cities of Madrid and Barcelona lends strong support for a nationwide study to assess the overall effect of a smoking ban in Spain and identify the causes of the observed heterogeneity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Secular Changes in Clinical Features at Presentation of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Increase in Comorbidity But Improved Inflammatory States.

PubMed

Nikiphorou, Elena; Norton, Sam; Carpenter, Lewis; Dixey, Josh; Andrew Walsh, David; Kiely, Patrick; Young, Adam

2017-01-01

To examine secular trends in demographics, clinical manifestations, and comorbidity on first presentation of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) prior to disease-modifying antirheumatic drug treatment. A total of 2,701 patients were recruited over 25 years to 2 UK-based RA inception cohorts: the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Study (9 centers; 1986-2001) and the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Network (23 centers; 2002-2012). Trends in demographic and baseline clinical/laboratory and radiographic variables and comorbidities were estimated using mixed-effects models, including random effects for recruitment center. Age at onset increased from 53.2 to 57.7 years in 1990 and 2010, respectively (2.6 months/year; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.2, 4.1). Sex ratio, the proportion living in deprived areas, and smoking status were unchanged (P > 0.05) and there were no changes in the proportion seropositive or erosive at baseline (P > 0.05). After controlling for treatment at the time of assessment, erythrocyte sedimentation rate decreased and hemoglobin increased over time (P > 0.05); however, the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ), the Disease Activity Score (DAS), the DAS in 28 joints, and joint counts were unchanged (P > 0.05). The overall prevalence of comorbidity increased from 29.0% in 1990 to 50.7% in 2010, mainly due to cardiovascular and non-cardiac vascular conditions, including hypertension. There was a significant increase in body mass index (0.15 units/year; 95% CI 0.11, 0.18), resulting in an increase in the prevalence of obesity from 13.3% in 1990 to 33.6% in 2010. Age at onset and comorbidity burden, especially obesity, have increased at RA presentation over 25 years, reflecting wider demographic trends at the population level. In contrast, there were no accompanying changes in disease severity assessed by composite markers of disease activity, radiographic erosions, seropositivity, or HAQ at presentation. Treatment strategies in early RA should take greater account of the impact of comorbidity on outcomes. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Trends in population blood pressure and determinant factors for population blood pressure.

PubMed

Andersen, Ulla Overgaard

2017-03-01

Strategies to reduce the burden of blood pressure attributable diseases require knowledge of secular trend in PBP and its determinants. The issues were investigated in the Copenhagen City Heart Study. The design of CCHS is a repeated measures study. Such designs are uniquely suited to studying changes of an outcome and what risk factors may be associated with that outcome. Repeated measures studies are very well suited for trend analysis by using mixed effect analyses. SBP decreased about 2 mmHg in 25 years. The risk factors age, gender and BMI were found valid as determinant factors for secular trends in SBP. In addition, the following factors were identified: household income and the interactions ''gender*age'' and ''survey*age''. The interaction ''gender*age'' stated that the difference between SBP in the two genders was great in the young individuals and diminished by age. The interaction ''survey*age'' stated that SBP in the young individuals decreased more with survey than SBP in the older individuals. Thus, the 20 years old subjects in survey 2, 3 and 4 have lower SBP than the 20 years old subjects in preceding surveys. The slopes were less steep in higher ages. In the group of elderly and old subjects the trend is partly explained by treatment bias because more and more subjects leave the untreated group and start treatment. The factor ''household income'' was significant only in the female population and stated that high-income women had lower SBP and a more beneficial secular trend in SBP than low-income women. Marital status, self-reported physical exercise and alcohol intake were not significant factors. A number of factors, that are interesting in relation to SBP, were not included in the CCHS and therefore not investigated. Among them are salt intake, childhood factors, genetic factors and the DASH diet. A survival study was performed to investigate the mortality rate in relation to SBP changes during the observation period. A Cox regression analysis was used in this study. The survival study demonstrated that SBP was a significant variable in survival models for all age groups. There was a decrease in mortality rate in young to middle-aged individuals. The mortality rate that is associated with a particular value of SBP did not change. Thus, it was concluded that SBP was as dangerous as it has always been and that the reduction in mortality rate was most pronounced in the age classes that also experienced the greatest reduction in blood pressure. During the observation period the number of treated individuals in the population increased from 6.5% to 18.1%. About 50% of the population was hypertensive (SBP ≥ 140 mmHg or treated with antihypertensive medication). The value of SBPtreated was used as an indicator for hypertension control in the treated population. Hypertension control is a collection of topics that includes guidelines, available medicine, physicians attitude towards hypertension treatment, systematic control, patient awareness and patient compliance. The analysis of trends in SPB in treated hypertensives showed that SBP treated decreased 9.2 mmHg in 25 years. The result may be ascribed to improvements in treatment but may also be caused by a change in start-to-treat practice: If hypertensives start treatment at an increasingly lower SBP threshold then SBP treated will decrease without improvements in treatment. Therefore the start-to-treat practice was evaluated by SBP threshold . A change in SBP threshold was not observed. Thus, the 9.2 mmHg decrease in SBP treated may represent improvements in treatment. ''Age'' was a significant factor for SBP treated . This result demonstrated that elderly and old individuals were treated less successful than young and middle-aged individuals. Subjects diagnosed with ischemic heart disease constitute a group with a more advantageous slope than subjects with other diagnoses (stroke, IHD in combination with stroke, and hypertension alone). Self-reported physical exercise, gender, alcohol intake, household income and family structure were not significant as variables in the decreasing SBP among treated hypertensives. Thus, the papers in this thesis described SBP trends in the untreated and in the treated part of a population. Different patient-related factors were identified as determinant factors for trends in the two groups. The determinant factors are the explanatory variables most associated with trends in SBP. The determinant factors were different for the two groups (except for age).

Human Rights Education and the Post Secular Turn

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowie, Bob

2012-01-01

This article questions whether human rights education (HRE) scholarship is responding adequately to the post secular turn in thinking about the place and nature of religion in society. Here the post secular turn is used to describe the discrediting of secularisation theory, the recognition of religion as an enduring and pervasive global cultural…

Secular Ethics Education as an Alternative to Religious Education--Finnish Teachers' Views

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zilliacus, Harriet; Kallioniemi, Arto

2016-01-01

This study provides a Finnish perspective to international discussions on religious and worldviews education through the subject of secular ethics. This subject has been offered in Finland since 1985 throughout comprehensive schools and is primarily directed at students who are non-affiliated. Secular ethics education has scarcely been researched…

Unsafe Gods: Security, Secularism and Schooling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davies, Lynn

2014-01-01

This book makes the compelling argument that religion can be complicit in conflict and that a new secularism is vital to foster security. Using insights from complexity science, it shows how dynamic secularism can be used to accommodate diverse faiths and beliefs within worldly politics. Exploration of the interplay of religion and education in…

The Other Partition: Religious and Secular Education in British Palestine

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneider, Suzanne

2014-01-01

The recent critical turn toward post-secularism, particularly on behalf of theorists working from the perspective of Christian societies, has highlighted the difficulty of approaching the history of the Middle East through the binary of religion and secularism. This article argues that such terms are of little explanatory value in and of…

Addressing Religious Plurality--A Teacher Perspective on Minority Religion and Secular Ethics Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zilliacus, Harriet

2013-01-01

The Finnish education system recognizes religious plurality by offering education in pupils' own religion or in secular ethics. However, little research has been undertaken on how plurality is addressed in classroom practice. This study investigates how 31 minority religion and secular ethics teachers view the task of supporting and including…

Substitution or Symbiosis? Assessing the Relationship between Religious and Secular Giving

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Jonathan P.; Vaidyanathan, Brandon

2011-01-01

Research on philanthropy has not sufficiently examined whether charitable giving to religious causes impinges on giving to secular causes. Examining three waves of national panel data, we find that the relationship between religious and secular giving is generally not of a zero-sum nature; families that increase their religious giving also…

The effect of secular resonances in the asteroid region between 2.1 and 2.4 AU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Froeschle, Christiane; Scholl, Hans

1992-01-01

The asteroid region between 2.1 and 2.4 AU appears to be depopulated at inclinations i greater than 12 deg. This region is surrounded by the three main secular resonances nu(sub 5), nu(sub 6), and nu(sub 16) and is crossed by higher order secular resonances. Secular resonances appear to overlap in this region. Numerical integrations of the orbits of seventeen fictituous asteroids with initial inclinations 12 deg less than or equal to i less than or equal to 20 deg show the following: (1) this particular asteroid region is not depopulated in our computer experiment on timescales of 2.7 Myrs; (2) inclinations are pumped up by successive crossings through higher order secular resonances while eccentricities are not increased sufficiently to produce planet-crossers; (3) bodies located in the bordering nu(sub 6) resonance with semi-major axes a less than or equal to 2.4 AU become Earth-crossers on a time scale of 1 Myr; and (4) we confirm the result that modes due to higher order secular resonances must be eliminated when proper elements are computed.

Consistency Between Increasing Trends in Added-Sugar Intake and Body Mass Index Among Adults: The Minnesota Heart Survey, 1980–1982 to 2007–2009

PubMed Central

Wang, Huifen; Zhou, Xia; Harnack, Lisa; Luepker, Russell V.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We described 27-year secular trends in added-sugar intake and body mass index (BMI) among Americans aged 25 to 74 years. Methods. The Minnesota Heart Survey (1980–1982 to 2007–2009) is a surveillance study of cardiovascular risk factors among residents of the Minneapolis–St Paul area. We used generalized linear mixed regressions to describe trends in added-sugar intake and BMI by gender and age groups and intake trends by weight status. Results. BMI increased concurrently with added-sugar intake in both genders and all age and weight groups. Percentage of energy intake from added sugar increased by 54% in women between 1980 to 1982 and 2000 to 2002, but declined somewhat in 2007 to 2009; men followed the same pattern (all P < .001). Added-sugar intake was lower among women than men and higher among younger than older adults. BMI in women paralleled added-sugar intake, but men's BMI increased through 2009. Percentage of energy intake from added sugar was similar among weight groups. Conclusions. Limiting added-sugar intake should be part of energy balance strategies in response to the obesity epidemic. PMID:22698050

The Role of Secularism of State on the Relationship Between Catholic Identity, Political Orientation, and Gay Rights Issues.

PubMed

Hichy, Zira; Gerges, Mina Halim Helmy; Platania, Silvia; Santisi, Giuseppe

2015-01-01

In discussions of regulations governing same-sex marriage and adoption by gays and lesbians, the issue of state secularism is often called into question. This study aims to test the mediating effects of state secularism on the relationship between Catholic identity, political orientation, and gay civil rights. Participants were Catholic Italians who completed a questionnaire measuring the constructs under investigation. Results showed that state secularism mediates the effects of Catholic identity and political orientation on attitudes toward same-sex marriage and adoption by gays and lesbians.

Secular Changes of Adiposity and Motor Development in Czech Preschool Children: Lifestyle Changes in Fifty-Five Year Retrospective Study

PubMed Central

Sedlak, Petr; Pařízková, Jana; Daniš, Robert; Dvořáková, Hana; Vignerová, Jana

2015-01-01

Secular trends of adiposity and motor development in preschool children since the fifties of the last century up to the beginning of this millennium were analyzed so as to reveal possible changes due to continuously differentiating lifestyle. In preschool children (n = 3678) height, weight, skinfold thickness over triceps, subscapular, and suprailiac were measured by Harpenden caliper in 1957, 1977, 1980, 1985, 1990, and 2012. Simultaneously, motor performance was tested by evaluating the achievements in broad jump and throwing a ball, as a marker of adaptation to changing level of physical activity, free games, and exercise. Along the period of five decades the values of skinfold thickness increased significantly until 2012, mainly on the trunk. Simultaneously, the level of motor performance significantly decreased. Modifications of the way of life during the mentioned five decades characterized by sedentarism and inadequate food intake as related to energy output influenced negatively both adiposity and motor performance already in preschool children. Mostly increased deposition of fat on the trunk which is considered as a marker of possible development of metabolic syndrome was apparent already in preschool age, indicating the importance of early intervention concerning also physical activity and availability for exercise since early life. PMID:26380296

The economic benefits of malaria elimination: do they include increases in tourism?

PubMed

Modrek, Sepideh; Liu, Jenny; Gosling, Roland; Feachem, Richard G A

2012-07-28

Policy makers have speculated that one of the economic benefits of malaria elimination includes increases in foreign direct investment, particularly tourism. This study examines the empirical relationship between the demand for travel and malaria cases in two countries with large tourism industries around the time in which they carried out malaria-elimination campaigns. In Mauritius, this analysis examines historical, yearly tourist arrivals and malaria cases from 1978-1999, accounting for the background secular trend of increasing international travel. In Dominican Republic, a country embarking upon malaria elimination, it employs a time-series analysis of the monthly, international tourist arrivals from 1998-2010 to determine whether the timing of significant deviations in tourist arrivals coincides with malaria outbreaks. While naïve relationships exist in both cases, the results show that the relationships between tourist arrivals and malaria cases are relatively weak and statistically insignificant once secular confounders are accounted for. This suggests that any economic benefits from tourism that may be derived from actively pursuing elimination in countries that have high tourism potential are likely to be small when measured at a national level. Rather, tourism benefits are likely to be experienced with greater impact in more concentrated tourist areas within countries, and future studies should seek to assess these relationships at a regional or local level.

Could a secular increase in organic burial explain the rise of oxygen? Insights from a geological carbon cycle model constrained by the carbon isotope record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krissansen-Totton, J.; Kipp, M.; Catling, D. C.

2017-12-01

The stable isotopes of carbon in marine sedimentary rock provide a window into the evolution of the Earth system. Conventionally, a relatively constant carbon isotope ratio in marine sedimentary rocks has been interpreted as implying constant organic carbon burial relative to total carbon burial. Because organic carbon burial corresponds to net oxygen production from photosynthesis, it follows that secular changes in the oxygen source flux cannot explain the dramatic rise of oxygen over Earth history. Instead, secular declines in oxygen sink fluxes are often invoked as causes for the rise of oxygen. However, constant fractional organic burial is difficult to reconcile with tentative evidence for low phosphate concentrations in the Archean ocean, which would imply lower marine productivity and—all else being equal—less organic carbon burial than today. The conventional interpretation of the carbon isotope record rests on the untested assumption that the isotopic ratio of carbon inputs into the ocean reflect mantle isotopic values throughout Earth history. In practice, differing rates of carbonate and organic weathering will allow for changes in isotopic inputs, as suggested by [1] and [2]. However, these inputs can not vary freely because large changes in isotopic inputs would induce secular trends in carbon reservoirs, which are not observed in the isotope record. We apply a geological carbon cycle model to all Earth history, tracking carbon isotopes in crustal, mantle, and ocean reservoirs. Our model is constrained by the carbon isotope record such that we can determine the extent to which large changes in organic burial are permitted. We find both constant organic burial and 3-5 fold increases in organic burial since 4.0 Ga can be reconciled with the carbon isotope record. Changes in the oxygen source flux thus need to be reconsidered as a possible contributor to Earth's oxygenation. [1] L. A. Derry, Organic carbon cycling and the lithosphere, in Treatise on Geochemistry (2nd. Ed.), H. D. Holland, K. K. Turekian, Eds. (Elsevier, Oxford, 2014), 239-249. [2] S. J. Daines, B. J. W. Mills, and T. M. Lenton, Atmospheric oxygen regulation at low Proterozoic levels by incomplete oxidative weathering of sedimentary organic carbon, Nat. Commun. 8 (2017): 14379.

Secular dynamics of multiplanetary circumbinary systems: stationary solutions and binary-planet secular resonance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrade-Ines, Eduardo; Robutel, Philippe

2018-01-01

We present an analytical formalism to study the secular dynamics of a system consisting of N-2 planets orbiting a binary star in outer orbits. We introduce a canonical coordinate system and expand the disturbing function in terms of canonical elliptic elements, combining both Legendre polynomials and Laplace coefficients, to obtain a general formalism for the secular description of this type of configuration. With a quadratic approximation of the development, we present a simplified analytical solution for the planetary orbits for both the single planet and the two-planet cases. From the two-planet model, we show that the inner planet accelerates the precession rate of the binary pericenter, which, in turn, may enter in resonance with the secular frequency of the outer planet, characterizing a secular resonance. We calculate an analytical expression for the approximate location of this resonance and apply it to known circumbinary systems, where we show that it can occur at relatively close orbits, for example at 2.4 au for the Kepler-38 system. With a more refined model, we analyse the dynamics of this secular resonance and we show that a bifurcation of the corresponding fixed points can affect the long- term evolution and stability of planetary systems. By comparing our results with complete integrations of the exact equations of motion, we verified the accuracy of our analytical model.

"Doing the Secular": Academic Practices in the Study of Religion at Two Danish Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johansen, Birgitte Schepelern

2011-01-01

The academic study of religion at the public university often presents itself as a secular, non-religious, scientific endeavor. The identity of the study is thus firmly rooted within one of the central secular-religious divides, namely that between science and religion. Based on the assumption that such distinctions between religion and the…

One Size Does Not Fit All: Complexity, Religion, Secularism and Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davies, Lynn

2014-01-01

The continuing incidence of extremist acts committed in the name of religion underscores the need to examine the interplay between religion and learning. This article argues for a secular foundation in society and school to protect against religion contributing to conflict and extremism. However, this is not a hard version of secularism, but a…

The Secular University and Its Critics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jobani, Yuval

2016-01-01

Universities in the USA have become bastions of secularity in a distinctly religious society. As such, they are subjected to a variety of robust and rigorous religious critiques. In this paper I do not seek to engage in the debate between the supporters of the secular university and its opponents. Furthermore, I do not claim to summarize the…

Disruptive Behaviour in Religious and Secular High Schools: Teachers' and Students' Attitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Romi, Shlomo

2004-01-01

This two-phase study, conducted in religious and secular high schools, investigated the attitudes of teachers and students to disruptive behaviour. The first phase examined a religious school, then applied the same research tools to a secular school. It was assumed that differences of attitude would be found, with teachers viewing disruptive…

Unholy Trinity? Secularism Institute Renews Liberal Arts Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keysar, Ariela

2010-01-01

Secularism is controversial in today's political debates, championed by some and vilified by others. So when Trinity College in Hartford, Conn., opened a center for the study of secularism in September 2005, some people worried that it could become a source of friction on campus--yet another battleground in the culture wars that are wreaking havoc…

Habermas and the Meaning of the Post-Secular Society: Complementary Learning Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Welton, Michael R.

2014-01-01

This essay argues that if social justice is to prevail in our world, we must understand the post-secular nature of our globalized society as a prerequisite for moving beyond "might is right" to national and international relations that heed all voices towards evidence-based interaction. Our post-secular world and postmetaphysical…

Combining virtual observatory and equivalent source dipole approaches to describe the geomagnetic field with Swarm measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saturnino, Diana; Langlais, Benoit; Amit, Hagay; Civet, François; Mandea, Mioara; Beucler, Éric

2018-03-01

A detailed description of the main geomagnetic field and of its temporal variations (i.e., the secular variation or SV) is crucial to understanding the geodynamo. Although the SV is known with high accuracy at ground magnetic observatory locations, the globally uneven distribution of the observatories hampers the determination of a detailed global pattern of the SV. Over the past two decades, satellites have provided global surveys of the geomagnetic field which have been used to derive global spherical harmonic (SH) models through some strict data selection schemes to minimise external field contributions. However, discrepancies remain between ground measurements and field predictions by these models; indeed the global models do not reproduce small spatial scales of the field temporal variations. To overcome this problem we propose to directly extract time series of the field and its temporal variation from satellite measurements as it is done at observatory locations. We follow a Virtual Observatory (VO) approach and define a global mesh of VOs at satellite altitude. For each VO and each given time interval we apply an Equivalent Source Dipole (ESD) technique to reduce all measurements to a unique location. Synthetic data are first used to validate the new VO-ESD approach. Then, we apply our scheme to data from the first two years of the Swarm mission. For the first time, a 2.5° resolution global mesh of VO time series is built. The VO-ESD derived time series are locally compared to ground observations as well as to satellite-based model predictions. Our approach is able to describe detailed temporal variations of the field at local scales. The VO-ESD time series are then used to derive global spherical harmonic models. For a simple SH parametrization the model describes well the secular trend of the magnetic field both at satellite altitude and at the surface. As more data will be made available, longer VO-ESD time series can be derived and consequently used to study sharp temporal variation features, such as geomagnetic jerks.

VO-ESD: a virtual observatory approach to describe the geomagnetic field temporal variations with application to Swarm data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saturnino, Diana; Langlais, Benoit; Amit, Hagay; Mandea, Mioara; Civet, François; Beucler, Éric

2017-04-01

A complete description of the main geomagnetic field temporal variation is crucial to understand dynamics in the core. This variation, termed secular variation (SV), is known with high accuracy at ground magnetic observatory locations. However the description of its spatial variability is hampered by the globally uneven distribution of the observatories. For the past two decades a global coverage of the field changes has been allowed by satellites. Their surveys of the geomagnetic field have been used to derive and improve global spherical harmonic (SH) models through some strict data selection schemes to minimise external field contributions. But discrepancies remain between ground measurements and field predictions by these models. Indeed, the global models do not reproduce small spatial scales of the field temporal variations. To overcome this problem we propose a modified Virtual Observatory (VO) approach by defining a globally homogeneous mesh of VOs at satellite altitude. With this approach we directly extract time series of the field and its temporal variation from satellite measurements as it is done at observatory locations. As satellite measurements are acquired at different altitudes a correction for the altitude is needed. Therefore, we apply an Equivalent Source Dipole (ESD) technique for each VO and each given time interval to reduce all measurements to a unique location, leading to time series similar to those available at ground magnetic observatories. Synthetic data is first used to validate the new VO-ESD approach. Then, we apply our scheme to measurements from the Swarm mission. For the first time, a 2.5 degrees resolution global mesh of VO times series is built. The VO-ESD derived time series are locally compared to ground observations as well as to satellite-based model predictions. The approach is able to describe detailed temporal variations of the field at local scales. The VO-ESD time series are also used to derive global SH models. Without regularization these models describe well the secular trend of the magnetic field. The derivation of longer VO-ESD time series, as more data will be made available, will allow the study of field temporal variations features such as geomagnetic jerks.

Sex, secularism and religious influence in US politics.

PubMed

Bernstein, Elizabeth; Jakobsen, Janet R

2010-01-01

Through an analysis of alliances between secular and religious actors in US politics and a specific case study on anti-trafficking policy, we show that the intertwining of religion and politics in the US comes from two sources: 1) the secular political and cultural institutions of American public life that have developed historically out of Protestantism, and which predominantly operate by presuming Protestant norms and values; and 2) the direct influence on US politics of religious groups and organisations, particularly in the past quarter-century of lobby groups and political action committees identified with conservative evangelical Christianity. The sources of policies that promote gender and sexual inequality in the US are both secular and religious and we conclude that it is inaccurate to assume that religious influence in politics is necessarily conservative or that more secular politics will necessarily be more progressive than the religious varieties.

Regional Sea Level Variation: California Coastal Subsidence (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blewitt, G.; Hammond, W. C.; Nerem, R.

2013-12-01

Satellite altimetry over the last two decades has measured variations in geocentric sea level (GSL), relative to the Earth system center of mass, providing valuable data to test models of physical oceanography and the effects of global climate change. The societal impacts of sea level change however relate to variations in local sea level (LSL), relative to the land at the coast. Therefore, assessing the impacts of sea level change requires coastal measurements of vertical land motion (VLM). Indeed, ΔLSL = ΔGSL - ΔVLM, with subsidence mapping 1:1 into LSL. Measurements of secular coastal VLM also allow tide-gauge data to test models of GSL over the last century in some locations, which cannot be provided by satellite data. Here we use GPS geodetic data within 15 km of the US west coast to infer regional, secular VLM. A total of 89 GPS stations met the criteria that time series span >4.5 yr, and do not have obvious non-linear variation, as may be caused by local instability. VLM rates for the GPS stations are derived in the secular reference frame ITRF2008, which aligns with the Earth system center of mass to ×0.5 mm/yr. We find that regional VLM has different behavior north and south of the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ). The California coast has a coherent regional pattern of subsidence averaging 0.5 mm/yr, with an increasing trend to the north. This trend generally matches GIA model predictions. Around San Francisco Bay, the observed coastal subsidence of 1.0 mm/yr coherently decreases moving away from the Pacific Ocean to very small subsidence on the east shores of the bay. This gradient is likely caused by San Andreas-Hayward Fault tectonics, and possibly by differential surface loading across the bay and Sacramento-San Joachim River Delta. Thus in addition to the trend in subsidence from GIA going northward along the California coast, tectonics may also play a role where the plate boundary fault system approaches the coast. In contrast, we find that VLM of the coast north of the MTJ in Oregon and Washington has the opposite sign (uplift) and varies with distance between the coast and the trench, as may be expected from elastic strain accumulation at the locked subduction zone, coupled with a contrast in rheological structure affecting GIA. In terms of LSL and hence societal impact, our measured mean California subsidence of 0.5 mm/yr approximately cancels with GIA models of global GSL lowering at a similar rate. This GSL lowering is caused by the increasing volume of ocean basins as the mantle flows away from under the oceans in isostatic response to >100 m of sea level rise following Pleistocene deglaciation. So the net LSL in California caused by coastal VLM plus GSL lowering by GIA is ~0.5 mm/yr LSL rise to the north, and ~0.5 mm/yr lowering to the south. Since our VLM estimates do not account for large earthquakes, the trends in LSL over geological time could look quite different. Given that our GPS time series are selected from a globally consistent set from >11,000 stations, we note that similar studies could be applied using our dataset in a seamless way over coastlines across the globe, depending on available station coverage.

The human sex odds at birth after the atmospheric atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities.

PubMed

Scherb, Hagen; Voigt, Kristina

2011-06-01

Ever since the discovery of the mutagenic properties of ionizing radiation, the possibility of birth sex odds shifts in exposed human populations was considered in the scientific community. Positive evidence, however weak, was obtained after the atomic bombing of Japan. We previously investigated trends in the sex odds before and after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident. In a pilot study, combined data from the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Norway, Poland, and Sweden between 1982 and 1992 showed a downward trend in the sex odds and a significant jump in 1987, the year immediately after Chernobyl. Moreover, a significant positive association of the sex odds between 1986 and 1991 with Chernobyl fallout at the district level in Germany was observed. Both of these findings, temporality (effect after exposure) and dose response association, yield evidence of causality. The primary aim of this study was to investigate longer time periods (1950-2007) in all of Europe and in the USA with emphasis on the global atmospheric atomic bomb test fallout and on the Chernobyl accident. To obtain further evidence, we also analyze sex odds data near nuclear facilities in Germany and Switzerland. DATA AND STATISTICAL METHODS: National gender-specific annual live births data for 39 European countries from 1975 to 2007 were compiled using the pertinent internet data bases provided by the World Health Organization, United Nations, Council of Europe, and EUROSTAT. For a synoptic re-analysis of the period 1950 to 1990, published data from the USA and from a predominantly western and less Chernobyl-exposed part of Europe were studied additionally. To assess spatial, temporal, as well as spatial-temporal trends in the sex odds and to investigate possible changes in those trends after the atomic bomb tests, after Chernobyl, and in the vicinity of nuclear facilities, we applied ordinary linear logistic regression. Region-specific and eventually changing spatial-temporal trends were analyzed using dummy variables coding for continents, countries, districts, municipalities, time periods, and appropriate spatial-temporal interactions. The predominantly western European sex odds trend together with the US sex odds trend (1950-1990 each) show a similar behavior. Both trends are consistent with a uniform reduction from 1950 to 1964, an increase from 1964 to 1975 that may be associated with delayed global atomic bomb test fallout released prior to the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963 and again a more or less constant decrease from 1975 to 1990. In practically all of Europe, including eastern European countries, from 1975 to 1986, and in the USA from 1975 to 2002, there were highly significant uniform downward trends in the sex odds with a reduction of 0.22% to 0.25% per 10 years. In contrast to the USA, in Europe there was a highly significant jump of the sex odds of 0.20% in the year 1987 following Chernobyl. From 1987 to 2000, the European sex odds trend reversed its sign and went upward, highly significantly so, with 0.42% per 10 years relative to the downward trend before Chernobyl. The global secular trend analyses are corroborated by the analysis of spatial-temporal sex odds trends near nuclear facilities (NF) in Germany and Switzerland. Within 35 km distance from those NF, the sex odds increase significantly in the range of 0.30% to 0.40% during NF operating time. The atmospheric atomic bomb test fallout affected the human sex odds at birth overall, and the Chernobyl fallout had a similar impact in Europe and parts of Asia. The birth sex odds near nuclear facilities are also distorted. The persistently disturbed secular human sex odds trends allow the estimation of the global deficit of births in the range of several millions.

Cyclic and secular variation in microfossil biomineralization: clues to the biogeochemical evolution of Phanerozoic oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Ronald E.

1995-06-01

The stratigraphic occurrence and mineralogy of major protistan microfossil taxa tend to reflect evolutionary innovation in response to ocean chemistry and fertility. In foraminefera, the characteristic test composition—and, in some cases, ultrastructure—of each suborder is indicative of the degree of surface ocean CaCO 3 saturation, which varied in a cyclic manner through the Phanerozoic, at the time of origin of the suborder. High dissolved phosphate and low CaCO 3 saturation in late Precambrian-Early Cambrian surface waters may have prevented calcification in primitive non-calcareous (organic, agglutinated) foraminiferal stocks. Scattered reports of coccolithophorid-like microfossils from the Paleozoic are indicative of a secular trend in rising nutrient levels and marine productivity that controlled the initiation of calcareous oozes. Based on acritarch, carbon isotope, and phosphorite records, extremely low nutrient levels ("superligotrophic" conditions) in Cambrian-to-Devonian seas typically limited population densities of calcareous nannoplankton and prevented the formation of calcareous oozes. The overall "superoligotrophic" surface conditions of the Paleozoic were punctuated, though, by episodes of "catastrophic" eutrophication in the Late Ordovician, Late Devonia, and Late Carboniferous (Worsley et al., 1986). Following each episode, CaCO 3 rain rates were presumably enhanced because Marine C:P (MCP) burial ratios increased permanently above previous levels (Worsley et al., 1986). Nevertheless, it was not until the Carboniferous that the CCD had deepened sufficiently (via erosion of cratonic limestones) to allow pelagic calcareous oozes to begin to accumulate. Prior to this time, surface waters appear to have been sufficiently corrosive (high atmospheric pCO 2 and low CaCO 3 saturation), and the CCD sufficiently shallow, to dissolve virtually all incipient calcareous nannofossils. Following Late Permian extinctions, plankton re-expanded in response to both eustatic sea level rise (increased habitat availability) and increased nutrient levels ("mesotrophic" conditions). As organic matter (C org) and CaCO 3 rain rates increased, bioturbation rates also increased, thereby recycling nutrients back to the surface and accentuating productivity and calcareous ooze formation. MCP episodes further accelerated nutrient cycling and productivity in the Neogene, as indicated by the expansion of diatoms, which prefer nutrient-rich ("eutrophic") conditions. Ironically, while permanently increasing C:P burial ratios and productivity through the Phanerozoic, catastrophic fluctuations in nutrient levels may have also exacerbated mass extinctions via shortening of pelagic food chains. Nevertheless, re-expansion of the marine biosphere following each extinction episode resulted in a secular trend of increasing biomass and biotic diversity that may have contributed to the decline in background extinction rates through the Phanerozoic.

Cumulative Incidence of Cancer Among Persons With HIV in North America: A Cohort Study.

PubMed

Silverberg, Michael J; Lau, Bryan; Achenbach, Chad J; Jing, Yuezhou; Althoff, Keri N; D'Souza, Gypsyamber; Engels, Eric A; Hessol, Nancy A; Brooks, John T; Burchell, Ann N; Gill, M John; Goedert, James J; Hogg, Robert; Horberg, Michael A; Kirk, Gregory D; Kitahata, Mari M; Korthuis, Philip T; Mathews, William C; Mayor, Angel; Modur, Sharada P; Napravnik, Sonia; Novak, Richard M; Patel, Pragna; Rachlis, Anita R; Sterling, Timothy R; Willig, James H; Justice, Amy C; Moore, Richard D; Dubrow, Robert

2015-10-06

Cancer is increasingly common among persons with HIV. To examine calendar trends in cumulative cancer incidence and hazard rate by HIV status. Cohort study. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design during 1996 to 2009. 86 620 persons with HIV and 196 987 uninfected adults. Cancer type-specific cumulative incidence by age 75 years and calendar trends in cumulative incidence and hazard rates, each by HIV status. Cumulative incidences of cancer by age 75 years for persons with and without HIV, respectively, were as follows: Kaposi sarcoma, 4.4% and 0.01%; non-Hodgkin lymphoma, 4.5% and 0.7%; lung cancer, 3.4% and 2.8%; anal cancer, 1.5% and 0.05%; colorectal cancer, 1.0% and 1.5%; liver cancer, 1.1% and 0.4%; Hodgkin lymphoma, 0.9% and 0.09%; melanoma, 0.5% and 0.6%; and oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer, 0.8% and 0.8%. Among persons with HIV, calendar trends in cumulative incidence and hazard rate decreased for Kaposi sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. For anal, colorectal, and liver cancer, increasing cumulative incidence, but not hazard rate trends, were due to the decreasing mortality rate trend (-9% per year), allowing greater opportunity to be diagnosed. Despite decreasing hazard rate trends for lung cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, and melanoma, cumulative incidence trends were not seen because of the compensating effect of the declining mortality rate. Secular trends in screening, smoking, and viral co-infections were not evaluated. Cumulative cancer incidence by age 75 years, approximating lifetime risk in persons with HIV, may have clinical utility in this population. The high cumulative incidences by age 75 years for Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and lung cancer support early and sustained antiretroviral therapy and smoking cessation.

Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Saleem A.; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Al-Abadi, Alaa M.

2017-12-01

The existence of long-term persistence (LTP) in hydro-climatic time series can lead to considerable change in significance of trends. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP became a disputable issue. A study has been conducted to assess the trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Iraq in recent years (1965-2015) using both ordinary Mann-Kendal (MK) test; and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can differentiate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. Trends in annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and 14 temperature-related extremes were assessed. MK test detected the significant increases in minimum and maximum temperature at all stations, where m-MK test detected at 86% and 80% of all stations, respectively. The temperature in Iraq is increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global temperature rise. The minimum temperature is increasing more (0.48-1.17 °C/decade) than maximum temperature (0.25-1.01 °C/decade). Temperature rise is higher in northern Iraq and in summer. The hot extremes particularly warm nights are increasing all over Iraq at a rate of 2.92-10.69 days/decade, respectively. On the other hand, numbers of cold days are decreasing at some stations at a rate of - 2.65 to - 8.40 days/decade. The use of m-MK test along with MK test confirms the significant increase in temperature and some of the temperature extremes in Iraq. This study suggests that trends in many temperature extremes in the region estimated in previous studies using MK test may be due to natural variability of climate, which empathizes the need for validation of the trends by considering LTP in time series.

Secular dynamics of hierarchical multiple systems composed of nested binaries, with an arbitrary number of bodies and arbitrary hierarchical structure - II. External perturbations: flybys and supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamers, Adrian S.

2018-05-01

We extend the formalism of a previous paper to include the effects of flybys and instantaneous perturbations such as supernovae on the long-term secular evolution of hierarchical multiple systems with an arbitrary number of bodies and hierarchy, provided that the system is composed of nested binary orbits. To model secular encounters, we expand the Hamiltonian in terms of the ratio of the separation of the perturber with respect to the barycentre of the multiple system, to the separation of the widest orbit. Subsequently, we integrate over the perturber orbit numerically or analytically. We verify our method for secular encounters and illustrate it with an example. Furthermore, we describe a method to compute instantaneous orbital changes to multiple systems, such as asymmetric supernovae and impulsive encounters. The secular code, with implementation of the extensions described in this paper, is publicly available within AMUSE, and we provide a number of simple example scripts to illustrate its usage for secular and impulsive encounters and asymmetric supernovae. The extensions presented in this paper are a next step towards efficiently modelling the evolution of complex multiple systems embedded in star clusters.

Decadal changes of surface elevation over permafrost area estimated using reflected GPS signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lin; Larson, Kristine M.

2018-02-01

Conventional benchmark-based survey and Global Positioning System (GPS) have been used to measure surface elevation changes over permafrost areas, usually once or a few times a year. Here we use reflected GPS signals to measure temporal changes of ground surface elevation due to dynamics of the active layer and near-surface permafrost. Applying the GPS interferometric reflectometry technique to the multipath signal-to-noise ratio data collected by a continuously operating GPS receiver mounted deep in permafrost in Barrow, Alaska, we can retrieve the vertical distance between the antenna and reflecting surface. Using this unique kind of observables, we obtain daily changes of surface elevation during July and August from 2004 to 2015. Our results show distinct temporal variations at three timescales: regular thaw settlement within each summer, strong interannual variability that is characterized by a sub-decadal subsidence trend followed by a brief uplift trend, and a secular subsidence trend of 0.26 ± 0.02 cm year-1 during 2004 and 2015. This method provides a new way to fully utilize data from continuously operating GPS sites in cold regions for studying dynamics of the frozen ground consistently and sustainably over a long time.

Secular trends, treatments, and outcomes of Middle Eastern Arab and South Asian patients hospitalized with atrial fibrillation: insights from a 20-year registry in Qatar (1991-2010).

PubMed

Salam, Amar M; AlBinali, Hajar A; Al-Mulla, Abdul Wahid; Singh, Rajvir; Al Suwaidi, Jassim

2013-10-01

A prospective registry was made of all patients hospitalized with atrial fibrillation (AF) in the State of Qatar from 1991 to 2010. Clinical characteristics, management, and outcomes were compared according to ethnicity (Middle Eastern Arab vs South Asian). During this 20-year period, 2857 Arabs and 548 Asians were hospitalized for AF. Arabs were 9 years older and more likely to have hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic renal impairment, and dyslipidemia than the Asians. Valvular heart disease and acute coronary syndromes were more common among Asians, while congestive heart failure was more common in Arabs. The overall inhospital mortality was lower in Asians than that of Arabs, while stroke rates were comparable. There was an increase in the prevalence of DM and hypertension in both the groups in the latter years of the study period, but there was no change in mortality trends. Our findings underscore the need to study AF according to ethnicity.

Precipitation changes in the western tropical Pacific over the past millennium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richey, Julie; Sachs, Julian P.

2016-01-01

Palau is linked to both meridional movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and changes in the Pacific Walker Circula- tion (PWC) associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Thus, Palau’s hydroclimate should be sensitive to mean shifts in the ITCZ and PWC on decadal to centennial time scales. Using compound- specific hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2H) of dinosterol in lake sediments, we generated a decadal-resolution proxy record of hydroclimatic variability in Palau spanning the past 800 yr. Results indicate a dry- ing trend during the Little Ice Age in Palau, consistent with a south- ward displacement of the ITCZ. In addition to the secular drying trend, there are persistent large (~20‰) multi-decadal to centennial oscillations in the δ2H record, the most recent of which indicates an abrupt shift to drier conditions in the mid-1970s that coincides with a decadal-scale negative shift in the Southern Oscillation Index.

European sources of halocarbons and nitrous oxide - Update 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prather, Michael

1988-01-01

New information on seasonal and secular trends in the releases of CFCl3, CF2Cl2, CCl4, CH3CCl3, and N20 from Europe was obtained as part of the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment. Semicontinuous measurements of these pollutants were made at Adrigole, Ireland, using lean air from the Atlantic Ocean as a baseline. The results obtained include unambiguous evidence for elevated levels of N2O occurring concurrent with halocarbon pollution events; the detection of trends in the relative emission of different halocarbons; the discovery of seasonal variations in emission of CF2Cl2, CCl4, and CH3Cl3; the characterization of typical summer and winter pollution episodes; and the identification of weather patterns over Europe that are associated with high concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons at Adrigole. It was estimated that the European source of N2O represents 25 percent of the global emissions associated with combustion and 10 percent of the integrated stratospheric losses.

A heuristic evaluation of long-term global sea level acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spada, Giorgio; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia

2015-05-01

In view of the scientific and social implications, the global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) and its possible causes and future trend have been a challenge for so long. For the twentieth century, reconstructions generally indicate a rate of GMSLR in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr-1. However, the existence of nonlinear trends is still debated, and current estimates of the secular acceleration are subject to ample uncertainties. Here we use various GMSLR estimates published on scholarly journals since the 1940s for a heuristic assessment of global sea level acceleration. The approach, alternative to sea level reconstructions, is based on simple statistical methods and exploits the principles of meta-analysis. Our results point to a global sea level acceleration of 0.54 ± 0.27 mm/yr/century (1σ) between 1898 and 1975. This supports independent estimates and suggests that a sea level acceleration since the early 1900s is more likely than currently believed.

VII. The history of physical activity and academic performance research: informing the future.

PubMed

Castelli, Darla M; Centeio, Erin E; Hwang, Jungyun; Barcelona, Jeanne M; Glowacki, Elizabeth M; Calvert, Hannah G; Nicksic, Hildi M

2014-12-01

The study of physical activity, physical fitness, and academic performance research are reviewed from a historical perspective, by providing an overview of existing publications focused on children and adolescents. Using rigorous inclusion criteria, the studies were quantified and qualified using both meta-analytic and descriptive evaluations analyses, first by time-period and then as an overall summary, particularly focusing on secular trends and future directions. This review is timely because the body of literature is growing exponentially, resulting in the emergence of new terminology, methodologies, and identification of mediating and moderating factors. Implications and recommendations for future research are summarized. © 2014 The Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Secular trends in opioid prescribing in the USA.

PubMed

Pezalla, Edmund J; Rosen, David; Erensen, Jennifer G; Haddox, J David; Mayne, Tracy J

2017-01-01

Opioid abuse and misuse in the USA is a public health crisis. The use of prescription opioid analgesics increased substantially from 2002 through 2010, then plateaued and began to decrease in 2011. This study examined prescriptions of branded and generic immediate- and extended-release opioid analgesics from 1992 to 2016. This was juxtaposed against state and federal policies designed to decrease overutilization and abuse, as well as the launch of new opioid products, including opioids with abuse-deterrent properties (OADPs). The data indicate that these health policies, including the utilization and reimbursement of OADPs, have coincided with decreased opioid utilization. The hypothesis that OADPs will paradoxically increase opioid prescribing is not supported.

Reconsidering community-based health promotion: promise, performance, and potential.

PubMed

Merzel, Cheryl; D'Afflitti, Joanna

2003-04-01

Contemporary public health emphasizes a community-based approach to health promotion and disease prevention. The evidence from the past 20 years indicates, however, that many community-based programs have had only modest impact, with the notable exception of a number of HIV prevention programs. To better understand the reasons for these outcomes, we conducted a systematic literature review of 32 community-based prevention programs. Reasons for poor performance include methodological challenges to study design and evaluation, concurrent secular trends, smaller-than-expected effect sizes, limitations of the interventions, and limitations of theories used. The effectiveness of HIV programs appears to be related in part to extensive formative research and an emphasis on changing social norms.

Secular Evolution of Spiral Galaxies

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-01-01

recombination (z=1000). Furthermore, the BigBang nucleosynthesis model also requires a signi cantamount of non- baryonic dark matter (Primack 1999) ifthe universe...momentum (as well as energy) outward. Associ-ated with this outward angular momentum transport isan expected secular redistribution of disk matter , co...mode, a secular transfer of energy andangular momentum between the disk matter and thedensity wave. The existence of the phase shift betweenthe

[Nursing care at home and secularism].

PubMed

Lecointre, Brigitte

2015-12-01

The question of secularism, long-time confined to schools and the relationships between the Church and State, is today being raised in the field of public health. Nurses are directly affected and are integrating this dimension of secularism into their care practices. A private practice nurse describes the effect these changes are having on her practice in patients' homes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

What Lies between the Religious and the Secular?: Education beyond the Human

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seo, Yong-Seok

2014-01-01

The current age is characterised by many as secular, and a source of such a characterisation can be found in the Nietzschean claim that thoughts about there being some ultimate reality have to be jettisoned, and human existence and the world need to be embraced as they are. That claim is renewed by some secular thinkers who insist that education…

Secular trends in fitness, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity, and TV-viewing among first grade school children of Crete, Greece between 1992/93 and 2006/07.

PubMed

Smpokos, Emmanouil A; Linardakis, Manolis; Papadaki, Angeliki; Lionis, Christos; Kafatos, Anthony

2012-03-01

To assess secular changes in physical fitness (PF), moderate-to-vigorous-physical activity (MVPA) and TV-viewing in 1st-grade children from Crete, Greece. Cross-sectional cohorts examined in academic years 1992/93 and 2006/07. Two representative samples of children, aged 5.9-7.8 years, were studied during 1992/93 (N=606) and 2006/07 (N=361). PF (sit-and-reach, standing-broad-jump, sit-ups and 20 m-shuttle-run-test) was assessed by the European-PF test battery and MVPA by a physical activity (PA) questionnaire. Data on the frequency of TV-viewing was also collected. Between 1992/93 and 2006/07, there was a significant increase in all fitness tests in both genders (P<0.001) and in MVPA in boys (76.5 min/week vs. 38.7 min/week, P<0.001). Time spent watching TV on weekdays was significantly more in both genders in 2006/07, compared to 1992/93 (P<0.001). In 2006/07, active boys and active girls spent more time in MVPA than active boys and girls in 1992/93 (P<0.001). Significantly higher proportions of boys and girls engaged in vigorous activities in 2006/07, than 1992/93 (P<0.001 and P=0.027, respectively). A significant increase in physical and cardiorespiratory fitness in both genders and MVPA in boys was observed in children from Crete between 1992/93 and 2006/07. The increase in weekday TV-viewing, despite being parallel to an increase in leisure-time MVPA, could have an unfavorable effect on health and should be tackled in future interventions in this population. Dietary, anthropometric and biochemical indices should also be investigated to assess their impact on the secular changes in physical fitness and activity observed in this sample of children. Copyright © 2011 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Secular humanism and "scientific psychiatry".

PubMed

Szasz, Thomas

2006-04-25

The Council for Secular Humanism identifies Secular Humanism as a "way of thinking and living" committed to rejecting authoritarian beliefs and embracing "individual freedom and responsibility ... and cooperation." The paradigmatic practices of psychiatry are civil commitment and insanity defense, that is, depriving innocent persons of liberty and excusing guilty persons of their crimes: the consequences of both are confinement in institutions ostensibly devoted to the treatment of mental diseases. Black's Law Dictionary states: "Every confinement of the person is an 'imprisonment,' whether it be in a common prison, or in private house, or in the stocks, or even by forcibly detaining one in the public streets." Accordingly, I maintain that Secular Humanism is incompatible with the principles and practices of psychiatry.

Analysis of geomagnetic secular variation during 1980-1985 and 1985- 1990, and geomagnetic models proposed for the 1991 revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peddie, N.W.

1992-01-01

The secular variation of the main geomagnetic field during the periods 1980-1985 and 1985-1990 was analyzed in terms of spherical harmonics up to the eighth degree and order. Data from worldwide magnetic observatories and the Navy's Project MAGNET aerial surveys were used. The resulting pair of secular-variation models was used to update the Definitive Geomagnetic Reference Field (DGRF) model for 1980, resulting in new mainfield models for 1985.0 and 1990.0. These, along with the secular-variation model for 1985-1990, were proposed for the 1991 revision of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). -Author

Sacred Spaces: Religious and Secular Coping and Family Relationships in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Brelsford, Gina M; Ramirez, Joshua; Veneman, Kristin; Doheny, Kim K

2016-08-01

Preterm birth is an unanticipated and stressful event for parents. In addition, the unfamiliar setting of the intensive care nursery necessitates strategies for coping. The primary study objective of this descriptive study was to determine whether secular and religious coping strategies were related to family functioning in the neonatal intensive care unit. Fifty-two parents of preterm (25-35 weeks' gestation) infants completed the Brief COPE (secular coping), the Brief RCOPE (religious coping), and the Family Environment Scale within 1 week of their infant's hospital admission. This descriptive study found that parents' religious and secular coping was significant in relation to family relationship functioning. Specifically, negative religious coping (ie, feeling abandoned or angry at God) was related to poorer family cohesion and use of denial. These findings have relevance for interventions focused toward enhancing effective coping for families. Further study of religious and secular coping strategies for neonatal intensive care unit families is warranted in a larger more diverse sample of family members.

Evaluating secular acceleration in geomagnetic field model GRIMM-3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesur, V.; Wardinski, I.

2012-12-01

Secular acceleration of the magnetic field is the rate of change of its secular variation. One of the main results of studying magnetic data collected by the German survey satellite CHAMP was the mapping of field acceleration and its evolution in time. Questions remain about the accuracy of the modeled acceleration and the effect of the applied regularization processes. We have evaluated to what extent the regularization affects the temporal variability of the Gauss coefficients. We also obtained results of temporal variability of the Gauss coefficients where alternative approaches to the usual smoothing norms have been applied for regularization. Except for the dipole term, the secular acceleration of the Gauss coefficients is fairly well described up to spherical harmonic degree 5 or 6. There is no clear evidence from observatory data that the spectrum of this acceleration is underestimated at the Earth surface. Assuming a resistive mantle, the observed acceleration supports a characteristic time scale for the secular variation of the order of 11 years.

N-body simulations of collective effects in spiral and barred galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.

2016-10-01

We present gravitational N-body simulations of the secular morphological evolution of disk galaxies induced by density wave modes. In particular, we address the demands collective effects place on the choice of simulation parameters, and show that the common practice of the use of a large gravity softening parameter was responsible for the failure of past simulations to correctly model the secular evolution process in galaxies, even for those simulations where the choice of basic state allows an unstable mode to emerge, a prerequisite for obtaining the coordinated radial mass flow pattern needed for secular evolution of galaxies along the Hubble sequence. We also demonstrate that the secular evolution rates measured in our improved simulations agree to an impressive degree with the corresponding rates predicted by the recently-advanced theories of dynamically-driven secular evolution of galaxies. The results of the current work, besides having direct implications on the cosmological evolution of galaxies, also shed light on the general question of how irreversibility emerges from a nominally reversible physical system.

Youth suicide trends in Finland, 1969-2008.

PubMed

Lahti, Anniina; Räsänen, Pirkko; Riala, Kaisa; Keränen, Sirpa; Hakko, Helinä

2011-09-01

There are only a few recent studies on secular trends in child and adolescent suicides. We examine here trends in rates and methods of suicide among young people in Finland, where suicide rates at these ages are among the highest in the world. The data, obtained from Statistics Finland, consisted of all suicides (n = 901) committed by persons under 18 years of age over the period 1969-2008. Gender-specific trends were analysed separately for the years 1969-1989 and 1990-2008 using 3-year moving averages. Trends in methods of suicide were examined from 1975 to 2008 in five-year periods. The male-to-female ratio in youth suicides was 3.6:1. The male rates increased in 1969-1989, while the rates among females were inconsistent. After 1990, the rates decreased for males but turned to an increase among females. Shooting was the most common suicide method among males throughout the period, while hanging exceeded poisoning as the most common method among females after 1990. All violent suicides decreased for males and increased for females in 1990-2008. The increase in violent, i.e., more lethal, suicide methods among young females is alarming, as females are known to have higher rates of attempted suicide than males. Alcohol consumption, rates and treatment of depression and violent behaviour among adolescents are discussed as approaches towards explaining this phenomenon. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2011 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Oral cavity cancer trends over the past 25 years in Hong Kong: a multidirectional statistical analysis.

PubMed

Ushida, Keisuke; McGrath, Colman P; Lo, Edward C M; Zwahlen, Roger A

2015-07-24

Even though oral cavity cancer (OCC; ICD 10 codes C01, C02, C03, C04, C05, and C06) ranks eleventh among the world's most common cancers, accounting for approximately 2 % of all cancers, a trend analysis of OCC in Hong Kong is lacking. Hong Kong has experienced rapid economic growth with socio-cultural and environmental change after the Second World War. This together with the collected data in the cancer registry provides interesting ground for an epidemiological study on the influence of socio-cultural and environmental factors on OCC etiology. A multidirectional statistical analysis of the OCC trends over the past 25 years was performed using the databases of the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. The age, period, and cohort (APC) modeling was applied to determine age, period, and cohort effects on OCC development. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to find secular trend changes of both age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates. The APC model detected that OCC development in men was mainly dominated by the age effect, whereas in women an increasing linear period effect together with an age effect became evident. The joinpoint regression analysis showed a general downward trend of age-standardized incidence rates of OCC for men during the entire investigated period, whereas women demonstrated a significant upward trend from 2001 onwards. The results suggest that OCC incidence in Hong Kong appears to be associated with cumulative risk behaviors of the population, despite considerable socio-cultural and environmental changes after the Second World War.

Gender difference and economic gradients in the secular trend of population systolic blood pressure.

PubMed

Andersen, Ulla O; Jensen, Gorm B

2013-09-01

To a large extent population blood pressure (PBP) affects morbidity and mortality in the society. Reports indicated that PBP decreased in many western countries. The associations between the main cardiovascular risk factors and the changing PBP have been described. The aim of this study was to investigate association between income factors and trends in population BP and hypertension. Copenhagen City Heart Study is a prospective longitudinal epidemiological study on almost 20000 individuals through four surveys from 1976 to 2003. The BP measurement was fully standardised. Questionnaires on household income and CV risk factors were completed by the participants. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors there were no significant differences in systolic BP (SBP) trend associated to income among men. Among women, however, there was a reverse relationship between SBP and income. In addition, there was a trend towards a lowering of risk-factor adjusted SBP in the high income women with time. The mechanism that lies behind the associations between trend in SBP and income is not known but data suggest that poor lifestyle may explain some of the differences. The treated hypertensives are treated without income associated treatment differences. Women in higher income groups have lower SBP than women in low-income groups and the gap between SBP in high-income women and low-income women increased with time. There were no significant differences in SBP-trend associated to income among men. Results in treating hypertension did not differ between the income groups. Copyright © 2013 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in colorectal cancer incidence among younger adults-Disparities by age, sex, race, ethnicity, and subsite.

PubMed

Crosbie, Amanda B; Roche, Lisa M; Johnson, Linda M; Pawlish, Karen S; Paddock, Lisa E; Stroup, Antoinette M

2018-06-22

Millennials (ages 18-35) are now the largest living generation in the US, making it important to understand and characterize the rising trend of colorectal cancer incidence in this population, as well as other younger generations of Americans. Data from the New Jersey State Cancer Registry (n = 181 909) and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (n = 448 714) were used to analyze invasive CRC incidence trends from 1979 to 2014. Age, sex, race, ethnicity, subsite, and stage differences between younger adults (20-49) and screening age adults (≥50) in New Jersey (NJ) were examined using chi-square; and, we compared secular trends in NJ to the United States (US). Whites, men, and the youngest adults (ages 20-39) are experiencing greater APCs in rectal cancer incidence. Rates among younger black adults, overall, were consistently higher in both NJ and the US over time. When compared to older adults, younger adults with CRC in NJ were more likely to be: diagnosed at the late stage, diagnosed with rectal cancer, male, non-white, and Hispanic. Invasive CRC incidence trends among younger adults were found to vary by age, sex, race, ethnicity, and subsite. Large, case-level, studies are needed to understand the role of genetics, human papillomavirus (HPV), and cultural and behavioral factors in the rise of CRC among younger adults. Provider and public education about CRC risk factors will also be important for preventing and reversing the increasing CRC trend in younger adults. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazier, Abby G.; Elison Timm, Oliver; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Diaz, Henry F.

2017-11-01

Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai`i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends.

Trends of Thyroid Cancer in Israel: 1980–2012

PubMed Central

Keinan-Boker, Lital; Silverman, Barbara G.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Thyroid cancer incidence is increasing worldwide, while mortality from thyroid cancer is stable or decreasing. Consequently, survival rates are rising. We describe time trends in the incidence, mortality, and 5-year survival of thyroid cancer in Israel in 1980–2012, in light of the global trends. Methods: Israel National Cancer Registry database provided information regarding thyroid cancer incidence and vital status, which enabled computation of survival rates. The Central Bureau of Statistics database provided information on thyroid cancer mortality. Incidence and mortality rates were age-adjusted and presented by population group (Jews/Arabs) and gender. Relative 5-year survival rates which account for the general population survival in the corresponding time period were presented by population group and gender. Joinpoint analyses were used to assess incidence trends over time. Results: In 1980–2012 significant increases in the incidence of thyroid cancer were observed, with an annual percent change (APC) range of 3.98–6.93, driven almost entirely by papillary carcinoma (APCs 5.75–8.86), while rates of other types of thyroid cancer remained stable or decreased. Furthermore, higher rates of early detection were noted. In 1980–2012, a modest reduction in thyroid cancer mortality was observed in Jewish women (APC −1.07) with no substantial change in Jewish men. The 5-year relative survival after thyroid cancer diagnosis has increased to ≥90% in both population groups and both genders. Conclusions: The Israeli secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence (increasing), mortality (mostly stable), and survival (modestly increasing) closely follow reported global trends. PMID:26886958

Effect of Pediatric Behavioral Health Screening and Colocated Services on Ambulatory and Inpatient Utilization.

PubMed

Hacker, Karen A; Penfold, Robert B; Arsenault, Lisa N; Zhang, Fang; Soumerai, Stephen B; Wissow, Lawrence S

2015-11-01

The study sought to determine the impact of a pediatric behavioral health screening and colocation model on utilization of behavioral health care. In 2003, Cambridge Health Alliance, a Massachusetts public health system, introduced behavioral health screening and colocation of social workers sequentially within its pediatric practices. An interrupted time-series study was conducted to determine the impact on behavioral health care utilization in the 30 months after model implementation compared with the 18 months prior. Specifically, the change in trends of ambulatory, emergency, and inpatient behavioral health utilization was examined. Utilization data for 11,223 children ages ≥4 years 9 months to <18 years 3 months seen from 2003 to 2008 contributed to the study. In the 30 months after implementation of pediatric behavioral health screening and colocation, there was a 20.4% cumulative increase in specialty behavioral health visit rates (trend of .013% per month, p=.049) and a 67.7% cumulative increase in behavioral health primary care visit rates (trend of .019% per month, p<.001) compared with the expected rates predicted by the 18-month preintervention trend. In addition, behavioral health emergency department visit rates increased 245% compared with the expected rate (trend .01% per month, p=.002). After the implementation of a behavioral health screening and colocation model, more children received behavioral health treatment. Contrary to expectations, behavioral health emergency department visits also increased. Further study is needed to determine whether this is an effect of how care was organized for children newly engaged in behavioral health care or a reflection of secular trends in behavioral health utilization or both.

Zero secular torque on asteroids from impinging solar photons in the YORP effect: A simple proof

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubincam, David Parry; Paddack, Stephen J.

2010-10-01

YORP torques, where "YORP" stands for "Yarokovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack," arise mainly from sunlight reflected off a Solar System object and the infrared radiation emitted by it. We show here, through the most elementary demonstration that we can devise, that secular torques from impinging solar photons are generally negligible and thus cause little secular evolution of an asteroid's obliquity or spin rate.

[Alcoholism-a study by Carl von Linnes in "Nemesis Divina"].

PubMed

Ojesjö, Leif

2007-01-01

Linnaeus' (1707- 1778) anecdotes in Nemesis Divina and stories from the Lundby Study were taken as a starting point for this essay an about the fate of heavy ("gluttonous") drinkers. The narratives are real enough, even if their meanings are interpreted as highly metaphorical. It is argued that through Linnaeus thinking on diet, alcohol, excessive appetites and God's revenge, today's secular awareness of risk behavior and unhealthy life styles may be expanded. Hence, new insights can grow from different perspectives on complicated problems.

Pastoral care of mental illness and the accommodation of African Christian beliefs and practices by UK clergy.

PubMed

Leavey, Gerard; Loewenthal, Kate; King, Michael

2017-02-01

Faith-based organisations, especially those related to specific ethnic or migrant groups, are increasingly viewed by secular Western government agencies as potential collaborators in community health and welfare programmes. Although clergy are often called upon to provide mental health pastoral care, their response to such problems remains relatively unexamined. This paper examines how clergy working in multiethnic settings do not always have the answers that people want, or perhaps need, to problems of misfortune and suffering. In the UK these barriers can be attributed, generally, to a lack of training on mental health problems and minimal collaboration with health services. The current paper attempts to highlight the dilemmas of the established churches' involvement in mental health care in the context of diversity. We explore the inability of established churches to accommodate African and other spiritual beliefs and practices related to the etiology and treatment of mental health problems.

Growth status of children 6-12 years from two different geographic regions of Mexico.

PubMed

Peña Reyes, M E; Cárdenas Barahona, E E; Cahuich, M B; Barragán, A; Malina, R M

2002-01-01

The purposes of the study are to assess the growth status of urban Mexican children living in different geographic areas of the country, to estimate the prevalence of overweight and obesity, and to explore secular trends in body size. Cross-sectional surveys of 293 children 6-11 years from Sonora in the north-west of the country (155 boys, 138 girls), and 356 children 7-12 years from Veracruz on the Gulf Coast (194 boys, 162 girls) were undertaken in 1992 and 1993, respectively. Height and weight were measured; the body mass index (BMI, kg m(-2)) was calculated. Growth status was compared to USA reference data and to samples of Mexican children in 1926 and 1975. The prevalence of overweight (BMI > or = 85th and < 95th percentiles) and obesity (BMI > or = 95th percentile) was estimated. Girls and boys from Sonora and Veracruz do not differ in height, weight and the BMI. Mean heights are at (girls) or below (boys) the medians of USA growth charts, while mean weights are at (boys) or just below (girls) the 75th percentiles at most ages. As a result, mean BMIs are above (boys) and below (girls) the 75th percentiles over the age range studied. The prevalence of overweight and obesity is 40% in boys and 35% in girls, whereas the prevalence of obesity per se is 23% in boys and 17% in girls. Compared to urban Mexican children in the Federal District surveyed in 1926, children in the present sample are taller and heavier, but the secular trend in body weight is more pronounced since the mid-1960s. Heights of the current samples are similar to those of well-off children in Mexico City in the early 1970s, but weights are heavier. The gap in height between well-off and lower socioeconomic status children in different regions of Mexico has been reduced, but there is an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity.

The contribution of international health volunteers to the health workforce in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Laleman, Geert; Kegels, Guy; Marchal, Bruno; Van der Roost, Dirk; Bogaert, Isa; Van Damme, Wim

2007-07-31

In this paper, we aim to quantify the contribution of international health volunteers to the health workforce in sub-Saharan Africa and to explore the perceptions of health service managers regarding these volunteers. Rapid survey among organizations sending international health volunteers and group discussions with experienced medical officers from sub-Saharan African countries. We contacted 13 volunteer organizations having more than 10 full-time equivalent international health volunteers in sub-Saharan Africa and estimated that they employed together 2072 full-time equivalent international health volunteers in 2005. The numbers sent by secular non-governmental organizations (NGOs) is growing, while the number sent by development NGOs, including faith-based organizations, is mostly decreasing. The cost is estimated at between US$36,000 and US$50,000 per expatriate volunteer per year. There are trends towards more employment of international health volunteers from low-income countries and of national medical staff.Country experts express more negative views about international health volunteers than positive ones. They see them as increasingly paradoxical in view of the existence of urban unemployed doctors and nurses in most countries. Creating conditions for employment and training of national staff is strongly favoured as an alternative. Only in exceptional circumstances is sending international health volunteers viewed as a defendable temporary measure. We estimate that not more than 5000 full-time equivalent international health volunteers were working in sub-Saharan Africa in 2005, of which not more than 1500 were doctors. A distinction should be made between (1) secular medical humanitarian NGOs, (2) development NGOs, and (3) volunteer organizations, as Voluntary Service Overseas (VSO) and United Nations volunteers (UNV). They have different views, undergo different trends and are differently appreciated by government officials.International health volunteers contribute relatively small numbers to the health workforce in sub-Saharan Africa, and it seems unlikely that they will do more in the future. In areas where they play a role, their contribution to service delivery is sometimes very significant.

Spatio-temporal variability of the SPCZ fresh pool eastern front from coral-derived surface salinity data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dassié, Emilie P.; Hasson, Audrey; Khodri, Myriam; Linsley, Braddock K.

2017-04-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a major atmospheric feature of the southern hemisphere. It is a low atmospheric convergence band associated with intense precipitations. Its position and intensity responds to global changes but also modulates regional weather patterns. Interannual to long-term SPCZ modifications result in extreme events such as severe droughts or flooding with profound socio-economic consequences. The SPCZ oceanic counterpart is a large body of fresh water (SSS<34.5 pss) extending southeast from the Maritime Continent to the dateline. This freshpool is separated from the high-salinity waters of the South Pacific gyre to the west by a steep salinity front. Various studies have shown a freshening of the freshpool and its south-eastward expansion since the 1970s, modulated by interannual to interdecadal variability (Cravatte et al., 2009). The scarcity of traditional SSS measurements limits our ability to describe accurately this variability. This study validates the use of coral d18O as a proxy for the reconstruction of SSS over the last 200 years. Derived SSS is validated against insitu data at 3 different locations along the SSS front (Fiji, Tonga and Rarotonga Islands). This new dataset enables us to investigate the spatio-temporal variations of the SSS front prior to the instrumental data. Two robust modes of variability are present in the reconstructed SSS datasets: interannual variability and a secular trend. The reconstructed SSS variability follows El Niño Southern Oscillation index. The three sites present secular trends toward fresher conditions, but do not present similar variability, neither in timing nor strength over their total length. Furthermore, the role of atmospheric freshwater fluxes on SSS variability is evaluated by comparing reconstructed SSS to available historical rain gauge data. Results highlight the role of both atmospheric freshwater fluxes and ocean dynamics on SSS variability.

Reconstructing the spatio-temporal variability of the southwestern Pacific salinity front from coral d18O records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasson, A. E. A.; Dassie, E. P.; Khodri, M.; Linsley, B. K.

2016-12-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a major atmospheric feature of the southern hemisphere. It is a low atmospheric convergence band associated with intense precipitations. Its position and intensity responds to global changes but also modulates regional weather patterns. Interannual to long-term SPCZ modifications result in extreme events such as severe droughts or flooding with profound socio-economic consequences. The SPCZ oceanic counterpart is a large body of fresh water (SSS<34.5 pss) extending southeast from the Maritime Continent to the dateline. This freshpool is separated from the high-salinity waters of the South Pacific gyre to the west by a steep salinity front. Various studies have shown a freshening of the freshpool and its southeastward expansion since the 1950s, modulated by interannual to interdecadal variability (Cravatte et al., 2009). The scarcity of traditional SSS measurements limits our ability to describe accurately this variability. This study validates the use of coral d18O as a proxy for the reconstruction of SSS over the last 200 years. Derived SSS is validated against insitu data at 3 different locations along the SSS front (Fiji, Tonga and Rarotonga Islands). This new dataset enables us to investigate the spatio-temporal variations of the SSS front prior to the instrumental data. Two robust modes of variability are present in the reconstructed SSS datasets: interannual variability and a secular trend. The reconstructed SSS variability follows the major El Niño Southern Oscillation indices. The relative SSS anomalies at each site provide information on the possible strength of the captured El Niño events. The three sites present secular trends toward fresher conditions. Furthermore, the role of atmospheric freshwater fluxes on SSS variability is evaluated by comparing reconstructed SSS to available historical rain gauge data. Results highlight the role of both atmospheric freshwater fluxes and ocean dynamics on SSS variability.

Changes in brain glioma incidence and laterality correlates with use of mobile phones--a nationwide population based study in Israel.

PubMed

Barchana, Micha; Margaliot, Menahem; Liphshitz, Irena

2012-01-01

Mobile phones are in extensive use worldwide and concerns regarding their role in tumor formation were raised. Over the years multiple studies were published in order to investigate this issue using several approaches. The current study looks at secular trends of brain gliomas (low and high grade) incidence and changes in tumor's laterality over 30 years in a population extensively using this technology with a possible correlation to the spread of use of mobile phones. All brain gliomas that were diagnosed from 1980-2009 were included and subdivided into two groups--low and high grade. Secular and periodic time trend analyses of incidence rates and changes in laterality were performed. Preferred side of head using mobile phones was assessed with a questionnaire in a sample of adult individuals. A decrease in incidence of low grade giomas (LGG) that correlated with introduction of mobile technology was found from 2.57, 2.34 and 2.79 for every 100,000 in the period 1980 to the end of 1994 to 1.72, 1.82 and 1.57, respectively, over the last three 5-years periods (1995-2009). High-grade glioma incidences increased significantly from 1980-2009 but in the period after mobile phones were introduced (1994-2009) a lower, non significant, rate of increase was observed in males and a lower one (significant) in females. A shift towards left sided tumor location for all adult gliomas combined and separately for LGG and HGG was noted from 1995 onward. The shift was more marked for those who were diagnosed in ages 20-49 (p=0.03). We found a statistically significant decrease in LGG's over 30-years period that correlates with introducing of mobile phones technology and a shift in laterality towards left-sided tumors, the latter occurred in both low and high-grade gliomas.

Early impact of Medicare accountable care organizations on cancer surgery outcomes.

PubMed

Herrel, Lindsey A; Norton, Edward C; Hawken, Scott R; Ye, Zaojun; Hollenbeck, Brent K; Miller, David C

2016-09-01

Accountable care organizations (ACOs) were established to improve care and outcomes for beneficiaries requiring highly coordinated, complex care. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between hospital ACO participation and the outcomes of major surgical oncology procedures. This was a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries older than 65 years who were undergoing a major surgical resection for colorectal, bladder, esophageal, kidney, liver, ovarian, pancreatic, lung, or prostate cancer from 2011 through 2013. A difference-in-differences analysis was implemented to compare the postimplementation period (January 2013 through December 2013) with the baseline period (January 2011 through December 2012) to assess the impact of hospital ACO participation on 30-day mortality, complications, readmissions, and length of stay (LOS). Among 384,519 patients undergoing major cancer surgery at 106 ACO hospitals and 2561 control hospitals, this study found a 30-day mortality rate of 3.4%, a readmission rate of 12.5%, a complication rate of 43.8%, and a prolonged LOS rate of 10.0% in control hospitals and similar rates in ACO hospitals. Secular trends were noted, with reductions in perioperative adverse events in control hospitals between the baseline and postimplementation periods: mortality (percentage-point reduction, 0.1%; P = .19), readmissions (percentage-point reduction, 0.4%; P = .001), complications (percentage-point reduction, 1.0%; P < .001), and prolonged LOS (percentage-point reduction, 1.1%; P < .001). After accounting for these secular trends, this study identified no significant effect of hospital participation in an ACO on the frequency of perioperative outcomes (difference-in-differences estimator P values, .24-.72). Early hospital participation in the Medicare Shared Savings Program ACO program was not associated with greater reductions in adverse perioperative outcomes for patients undergoing major cancer surgery in comparison with control hospitals. Cancer 2016. © 2016 American Cancer Society. Cancer 2016;122:2739-2746. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Trends in birth weight and the prevalence of low birth weight and small-for-gestational-age in Surinamese South Asian babies since 1974: cross-sectional study of three birth cohorts.

PubMed

de Wilde, Jeroen A; van Buuren, Stef; Middelkoop, Barend J C

2013-10-07

South Asian babies born in developed countries are generally lighter than babies from other ethnic groups born in the same country. While the mean birth weight of Caucasian babies in the Netherlands has increased the past decades, it is unknown if the mean birth weight of South Asian babies born in the Netherlands has increased or if the prevalence of low birth weight (LBW) or small-for-gestational-age (SGA) has decreased.The aims of this study are: 1. to investigate secular changes in mean birth weight and the prevalence of LBW and SGA in Surinamese South Asian babies, and 2. to assess differences between Surinamese South Asian and Dutch Caucasian neonates born 2006-2009. A population based study for which neonatal characteristics of 2014 Surinamese South Asian babies, born between 1974 and 2009 in the Netherlands, and 3104 Dutch Caucasian babies born 2006-2009 were obtained from well-baby clinic records. LBW was defined as a birth weight <2500 g. SGA was based on a universal population standard (the Netherlands) and three ethnic specific standards (the Netherlands, UK, Canada). In Surinamese South Asian babies from 1974 to 2009 no secular trend in mean birth weight and prevalence of LBW was found, whereas SGA prevalence decreased significantly.Surinamese South Asian babies born in 2006-2009 (2993 g; 95% CI 2959-3029 g) were 450 g lighter than Dutch Caucasian babies (3448 g; 95% CI 3429-3468 g), while LBW and SGA prevalences, based on universal standards, were three times higher. Application of ethnic specific standards from the Netherlands and the UK yielded SGA rates in Surinamese South Asian babies that were similar to Dutch. There were considerable differences between the standards used. Since 1974, although the mean birth weight of Surinamese South Asian babies remained unchanged, they gained a healthier weight for their gestational age.

Hemispheric Symmetries of Plio-Pleistocene Surface Ocean Conditions: Insights from Southern Hemisphere ODP Sites 1125 and 1088

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, K. T.; Peterson, L.; Kelly, C.; Miller, H.; Seidenstein, J.

2013-12-01

For decades, most studies of Plio-Pleistocene climate and of the transition from the warmth of the Pliocene to the colder and more variable conditions of the Pleistocene have focused solely on northern hemisphere climate processes and responses. Here, we explore the southern hemisphere response to this major climate transition by documenting ocean surface conditions at Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1125 (42οS, 178οW, 1360m) and 1088 (40οS, 15οE, 2082m) through the Plio-Pleistocene. Secular trends in alkenone-derived sea surface temperature (SST) records indicate that these mid-latitude southern hemisphere sites cooled ~3-4οC over the past 3 Myrs, a magnitude comparable to sites located at similar latitudes in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific. This observation suggests that contraction of the low latitude warm pool was hemispherically symmetric. Our highly resolved (3 kyr resolution) Site 1125 SST record bears considerable structural similarity to SST records from nearby site 1123 (42οS,171οW) as well as sites 846 (3οS, 91οW) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and U1313 (41οN, 33οW) in the North Atlantic. Most of these SST records are dominated by 100k power and contain strong secondary 41k peaks throughout the past 3 million years. North Atlantic site U1313 is the exception, mirroring the shift in dominant periodicity from 41k to 100k associated with the mid-Pleistocene transition, that has long been observed in benthic oxygen isotope records. Finally, in southern hemisphere SST records as well as at site U1313 from the north Atlantic we observe weak precessional power that is not evident in benthic oxygen isotope record. These results suggest a fairly hemispherically-coordinated response of ocean surface temperature to changing global climate conditions during the Plio-Pleistocene in terms of both secular trends and dominant orbital frequencies.

Zero Secular Torque on Asteroids from Impinging Solar Photons in the YORP Effect: A Simple Proof

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubincam, David Perry; Paddack, Stephen J.

2010-01-01

YORP torques, where "YORP" stands for "Yarokovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack." arise mainly from sun light reflected off a Solar System object and the infrared radiation emi tted by it. We show here, through the most elementary demonstration that we Can devise, that secular torques from impinging solar photons are generally negligible and thus cause little secular evolution of an asteroid's obliquity or spin rate.

"Text-Books and Textpeople" (A. J. Heschel): What Is the Role of the Mehanekh in the Jewish Secular High School in Israel, and What Is the Place of Jewish Texts within That Role?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sela Kol, Aviva Helena

2011-01-01

My study concerns the teacher knowledge of "mehankhim," teachers in Israeli high schools entrusted to promote students' moral, civic, and social growth. It examines two "mehankhim" from a secular Israeli high school who participated in a long-term professional development program in secular Jewish education, centered by…

Secular humanism and "scientific psychiatry"

PubMed Central

Szasz, Thomas

2006-01-01

The Council for Secular Humanism identifies Secular Humanism as a "way of thinking and living" committed to rejecting authoritarian beliefs and embracing "individual freedom and responsibility ... and cooperation." The paradigmatic practices of psychiatry are civil commitment and insanity defense, that is, depriving innocent persons of liberty and excusing guilty persons of their crimes: the consequences of both are confinement in institutions ostensibly devoted to the treatment of mental diseases. Black's Law Dictionary states: "Every confinement of the person is an 'imprisonment,' whether it be in a common prison, or in private house, or in the stocks, or even by forcibly detaining one in the public streets." Accordingly, I maintain that Secular Humanism is incompatible with the principles and practices of psychiatry. PMID:16759353

On the consequences of strong stable stratification at the top of earth's outer core

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloxham, Jeremy

1990-01-01

The consequences of strong stable stratification at the top of the earth's fluid outer core are considered, concentrating on the generation of the geomagnetic secular variation. It is assumed that the core near the core-mantle boundary is both strongly stably stratified and free of Lorentz forces: it is found that this set of assumptions severely limits the class of possible motions, none of which is compatible with the geomagnetic secular variation. Relaxing either assumption is adequate: tangentially geostrophic flows are consistent with the secular variation if the assumption that the core is strongly stably stratified is relaxed (while retaining the assumption that Lorentz forces are negligible); purely toroidal flows may explain the secular variation if Lorentz forces are included.

Convergence acceleration in scattering series and seismic waveform inversion using nonlinear Shanks transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftekhar, Roya; Hu, Hao; Zheng, Yingcai

2018-06-01

Iterative solution process is fundamental in seismic inversions, such as in full-waveform inversions and some inverse scattering methods. However, the convergence could be slow or even divergent depending on the initial model used in the iteration. We propose to apply Shanks transformation (ST for short) to accelerate the convergence of the iterative solution. ST is a local nonlinear transformation, which transforms a series locally into another series with an improved convergence property. ST works by separating the series into a smooth background trend called the secular term versus an oscillatory transient term. ST then accelerates the convergence of the secular term. Since the transformation is local, we do not need to know all the terms in the original series which is very important in the numerical implementation. The ST performance was tested numerically for both the forward Born series and the inverse scattering series (ISS). The ST has been shown to accelerate the convergence in several examples, including three examples of forward modeling using the Born series and two examples of velocity inversion based on a particular type of the ISS. We observe that ST is effective in accelerating the convergence and it can also achieve convergence even for a weakly divergent scattering series. As such, it provides a useful technique to invert for a large-contrast medium perturbation in seismic inversion.

[Saarland Growth Study: sampling design].

PubMed

Danker-Hopfe, H; Zabransky, S

2000-01-01

The use of reference data to evaluate the physical development of children and adolescents is part of the daily routine in the paediatric ambulance. The construction of such reference data is based on the collection of extensive reference data. There are different kinds of reference data: cross sectional references, which are based on data collected from a big representative cross-sectional sample of the population, longitudinal references, which are based on follow-up surveys of usually smaller samples of individuals from birth to maturity, and mixed longitudinal references, which are a combination of longitudinal and cross-sectional reference data. The advantages and disadvantages of the different methods of data collection and the resulting reference data are discussed. The Saarland Growth Study was conducted for several reasons: growth processes are subject to secular changes, there are no specific reference data for children and adolescents from this part of the country and the growth charts in use in the paediatric praxis are possibly not appropriate any more. Therefore, the Saarland Growth Study served two purposes a) to create actual regional reference data and b) to create a database for future studies on secular trends in growth processes of children and adolescents from Saarland. The present contribution focusses on general remarks on the sampling design of (cross-sectional) growth surveys and its inferences for the design of the present study.

The evolution of human phenotypic plasticity: age and nutritional status at maturity.

PubMed

Gage, Timothy B

2003-08-01

Several evolutionary optimal models of human plasticity in age and nutritional status at reproductive maturation are proposed and their dynamics examined. These models differ from previously published models because fertility is not assumed to be a function of body size or nutritional status. Further, the models are based on explicitly human demographic patterns, that is, model human life-tables, model human fertility tables, and, a nutrient flow-based model of maternal nutritional status. Infant survival (instead of fertility as in previous models) is assumed to be a function of maternal nutritional status. Two basic models are examined. In the first the cost of reproduction is assumed to be a constant proportion of total nutrient flow. In the second the cost of reproduction is constant for each birth. The constant proportion model predicts a negative slope of age and nutritional status at maturation. The constant cost per birth model predicts a positive slope of age and nutritional status at maturation. Either model can account for the secular decline in menarche observed over the last several centuries in Europe. A search of the growth literature failed to find definitive empirical documentation of human phenotypic plasticity in age and nutritional status at maturation. Most research strategies confound genetics with phenotypic plasticity. The one study that reports secular trends suggests a marginally insignificant, but positive slope. This view tends to support the constant cost per birth model.

The economic benefits of malaria elimination: do they include increases in tourism?

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Policy makers have speculated that one of the economic benefits of malaria elimination includes increases in foreign direct investment, particularly tourism. Methods This study examines the empirical relationship between the demand for travel and malaria cases in two countries with large tourism industries around the time in which they carried out malaria-elimination campaigns. In Mauritius, this analysis examines historical, yearly tourist arrivals and malaria cases from 1978–1999, accounting for the background secular trend of increasing international travel. In Dominican Republic, a country embarking upon malaria elimination, it employs a time-series analysis of the monthly, international tourist arrivals from 1998–2010 to determine whether the timing of significant deviations in tourist arrivals coincides with malaria outbreaks. Results While naïve relationships exist in both cases, the results show that the relationships between tourist arrivals and malaria cases are relatively weak and statistically insignificant once secular confounders are accounted for. Conclusions This suggests that any economic benefits from tourism that may be derived from actively pursuing elimination in countries that have high tourism potential are likely to be small when measured at a national level. Rather, tourism benefits are likely to be experienced with greater impact in more concentrated tourist areas within countries, and future studies should seek to assess these relationships at a regional or local level. PMID:22839351

Secular change in the growth status of urban and rural schoolchildren aged 6-13 years in Oaxaca, southern Mexico.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Peña Reyes, Maria Eugenia; Little, Bertis B

2008-01-01

Populations in the state of Oaxaca in southern Mexico are at high risk for malnutrition and marginalization. The study compared secular changes in the growth status of urban and rural schoolchildren in the Valley of Oaxaca between the 1970s and 2000. Cross-sectional surveys of boys and girls aged 6-13 years (n = 1472) were carried out in an urban colonia populares in 1972 and 2000 and a rural indigenous community in 1978 and 2000. Height, sitting height and weight were measured; leg length, sitting height ratio, BMI, and prevalence of stunting, underweight, overweight and obesity were calculated. Sex-specific ANCOVA controlling for age was used. Both urban and rural children experienced significant secular gains in linear dimensions, body weight and the BMI between the 1970s and 2000. Estimated rates of secular gain overlapped considerably between urban and rural children. Secular gains in the BMI are significantly greater in urban than rural boys and girls. Urban-rural differences in linear dimensions and body weight in 2000 compared to the 1970s do not differ in either sex, but urban-rural differences in the BMI are greater in boys and girls in 2000 compared to the 1970s. The prevalence of stunting declined while that of overweight and obesity increased. Significant secular increases in body size occurred between the 1970s and 2000, but there was considerable overlap between urban and rural children. Only secular gains in the BMI were significantly greater in urban than rural boys and girls and the magnitudes of urban-rural differences in the BMI were greater in 2000 than in the 1970s.

Secular and Religious Social Support Better Protect Blacks than Whites against Depressive Symptoms.

PubMed

Assari, Shervin; Moghani Lankarani, Maryam

2018-05-04

Purpose: Although the protective effect of social support against depression is well known, limited information exists on racial differences in this association. The current study examined Black-White differences in the effects of religious and secular emotional social support on depressive symptoms in a national sample of older adults in the United States. Methods: With a longitudinal prospective design, the Religion, Aging and Health Survey, 2001⁻2004, followed 1493 Black ( n = 734) and White ( n = 759) elderly individuals (age 66 and older) for three years. Race, demographics (age and gender), socio-economics (education and marital status) and frequency of church attendance were measured at baseline in 2001. Secular social support, religious social support, chronic medical conditions and depressive symptoms [8- item Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression scale (CES-D)] were measured in 2004. Multiple linear regression models were used for data analysis. In the pooled sample, secular and religious social support were both protective against depressive symptoms, net of all covariates. Race interacted with secular ( β = −0.62 for interaction) and religious ( β = −0.21 for interaction) social support on baseline depressive symptoms ( p < 0.05 for both interactions), suggesting larger protections for Blacks compared to Whites. In race-specific models, the regression weight for the effect of secular social support on depressive symptoms was larger for Blacks ( β = −0.64) than Whites ( β = −0.16). Conclusion: We found Black—White differences in the protective effects of secular and religious social support against depressive symptoms. Blacks seem to benefit more from the same level of emotional social support, regardless of its source, compared to Whites.

Secular and Religious Social Support Better Protect Blacks than Whites against Depressive Symptoms

PubMed Central

Moghani Lankarani, Maryam

2018-01-01

Purpose: Although the protective effect of social support against depression is well known, limited information exists on racial differences in this association. The current study examined Black-White differences in the effects of religious and secular emotional social support on depressive symptoms in a national sample of older adults in the United States. Methods: With a longitudinal prospective design, the Religion, Aging and Health Survey, 2001–2004, followed 1493 Black (n = 734) and White (n = 759) elderly individuals (age 66 and older) for three years. Race, demographics (age and gender), socio-economics (education and marital status) and frequency of church attendance were measured at baseline in 2001. Secular social support, religious social support, chronic medical conditions and depressive symptoms [8- item Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression scale (CES-D)] were measured in 2004. Multiple linear regression models were used for data analysis. Results: In the pooled sample, secular and religious social support were both protective against depressive symptoms, net of all covariates. Race interacted with secular (β = −0.62 for interaction) and religious (β = −0.21 for interaction) social support on baseline depressive symptoms (p < 0.05 for both interactions), suggesting larger protections for Blacks compared to Whites. In race-specific models, the regression weight for the effect of secular social support on depressive symptoms was larger for Blacks (β = −0.64) than Whites (β = −0.16). Conclusion: We found Black—White differences in the protective effects of secular and religious social support against depressive symptoms. Blacks seem to benefit more from the same level of emotional social support, regardless of its source, compared to Whites. PMID:29734662

Talking ethics with strangers: a view from Jewish tradition.

PubMed

Newman, L E

1993-12-01

The work of H. Tristram Engelhardt provides an important set of reflections for bioethics in a secular context. Taking Engelhardt's work as its point of departure this article explores the challenges that Jewish ethicists face in contributing to bioethics in a secular context. The article explores how the Jewish tradition can address issues in bioethics in ways that are true to its tradition and at the same time accessible and relevant to "moral strangers" in a secular society.

Religious and Secular Coping and Family Relationships in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit

PubMed Central

Brelsford, Gina M.; Ramirez, Joshua; Veneman, Kristin; Doheny, Kim K.

2017-01-01

Background Preterm birth is an unanticipated and stressful event for parents. In addition, the unfamiliar setting of the intensive care nursery necessitates strategies for coping. Purpose The primary study objective of this descriptive study was to determine whether secular and religious coping strategies were related to family functioning in the neonatal intensive care unit. Methods Fifty-two parents of preterm (25–35 weeks’ gestation) infants completed the Brief COPE (secular coping), the Brief RCOPE (religious coping), and the Family Environment Scale within 1 week of their infant’s hospital admission. Findings This descriptive study found that parents’ religious and secular coping was significant in relation to family relationship functioning. Specifically, negative religious coping (ie, feeling abandoned or angry at God) was related to poorer family cohesion and use of denial. Implications for Practice These findings have relevance for interventions focused toward enhancing effective coping for families. Implications for Research Further study of religious and secular coping strategies for neonatal intensive care unit families is warranted in a larger more diverse sample of family members. PMID:27391569

Cumulative Incidence of Cancer among HIV-infected Individuals in North America

PubMed Central

Silverberg, Michael J.; Lau, Bryan; Achenbach, Chad J.; Jing, Yuezhou; Althoff, Keri N.; D’Souza, Gypsyamber; Engels, Eric A.; Hessol, Nancy; Brooks, John T.; Burchell, Ann N.; Gill, M. John; Goedert, James J.; Hogg, Robert; Horberg, Michael A.; Kirk, Gregory D.; Kitahata, Mari M.; Korthuis, Phillip T.; Mathews, William C.; Mayor, Angel; Modur, Sharada P.; Napravnik, Sonia; Novak, Richard M.; Patel, Pragna; Rachlis, Anita R.; Sterling, Timothy R.; Willig, James H.; Justice, Amy C.; Moore, Richard D.; Dubrow, Robert

2016-01-01

Background Cancer is increasingly common among HIV patients given improved survival. Objective To examine calendar trends in cumulative cancer incidence and hazard rate by HIV status. Design Cohort study Setting North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design during 1996–2009 Patients 86,620 HIV-infected and 196,987 uninfected adults Measurements We estimated cancer-type-specific cumulative incidence by age 75 years by HIV status and calendar era, and examined calendar trends in cumulative incidence and hazard rates. Results Cumulative incidences (%) of cancer by age 75 (HIV+/HIV−) were: Kaposi sarcoma (KS), 4.4/0.01; non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), 4.5/0.7; lung, 3.4/2.8; anal, 1.5/0.1; colorectal, 1.0/1.5; liver, 1.1/0.4; Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), 0.9/0.1; melanoma, 0.5/0.6; and oral cavity/pharyngeal, 0.8/0.8. Among HIV-infected subjects, we observed decreasing calendar trends in cumulative incidence and hazard rate for KS and NHL. For anal, colorectal and liver cancers, increasing cumulative incidence, but not hazard rate trends, were due to the decreasing mortality rate trend (−9% per year), allowing greater opportunity to be diagnosed with these cancer types. Despite decreasing hazard rate trends for lung, HL, and melanoma, we did not observe cumulative incidence trends due to the compensating effect of the declining mortality rate on cumulative incidence. Limitations Secular trends in screening, smoking, and viral co-infections were not evaluated. Conclusions Our analytic approach helped disentangle the effects of improved survival and changing cancer-specific hazard rates on cumulative incidence trends among HIV patients. Cumulative cancer incidence by age 75, approximating lifetime risk in HIV patients, may have clinical utility in this population. The high cumulative incidences by age 75 for KS, NHL, and lung cancer supports early and sustained ART and smoking cessation. Primary Funding Source National Institutes of Health PMID:26436616

Secular evolution of asteroid families: the role of Ceres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novaković, Bojan; Tsirvoulis, Georgios; Marò, Stefano; Đošović, Vladimir; Maurel, Clara

2016-01-01

We consider the role of the dwarf planet Ceres on the secular dynamics of the asteroid main belt. Specifically, we examine the post impact evolution of asteroid families due to the interaction of their members with the linear nodal secular resonance with Ceres. First, we find the location of this resonance and identify which asteroid families are crossed by its path. Next, we summarize our results for three asteroid families, namely (1726) Hoffmeister, (1128) Astrid and (1521) Seinajoki which have irregular distributions of their members in the proper elements space, indicative of the effect of the resonance. We confirm this by performing a set of numerical simulations, showcasing that the perturbing action of Ceres through its linear nodal secular resonance is essential to reproduce the actual shape of the families.

On the Dynamical Foundations of the Lidov-Kozai Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prokhorenko, V. I.

2018-01-01

The Lidov-Kozai theory developed by each of the authors independently in 1961-1962 is based on qualitative methods of studying the evolution of orbits for the satellite version of the restricted three-body problem (Hill's problem). At present, this theory is in demand in various fields of science: in the field of planetary research within the Solar system, the field of exoplanetary systems, and the field of high-energy physics in interstellar and intergalactic space. This has prompted me to popularize the ideas that underlie the Lidov-Kozai theory based on the experience of using this theory as an efficient tool for solving various problems related to the study of the secular evolution of the orbits of artificial planetary satellites under the influence of external gravitational perturbations with allowance made for the perturbations due to the polar planetary oblateness.

Trends in tooth loss in relation to socio-economic status among Swedish women, aged 38 and 50 years: repeated cross-sectional surveys 1968-2004.

PubMed

Wennström, Anette; Ahlqwist, Margareta; Stenman, Ulrika; Björkelund, Cecilia; Hakeberg, Magnus

2013-11-06

Oral diseases are a health problem worldwide. Differences in oral health status may vary with geographical locations, but also within the same country and between groups with different social backgrounds. The specific aims were to describe secular trends in oral health status regarding number of remaining teeth and also to describe differences in socio-economic status, among 38- and 50-year-old women, over a 36-year period. Cross-sectional health surveys were performed at four occasions; 1968/69 (n = 746), 1980/81 (n = 532), 1992/93 (n = 165) and 2004/05 (n = 500), including randomly selected women aged 38 and 50 years. The number of teeth was determined using panoramic radiographs and self-reported measures of marital status, social class, educational level, and income were recorded. The mean number of teeth among women has increased significantly. The educational level has increased while fewer women are married/cohabiting over time. There has been a shift in the social group the women belong to, where proportionally more women were categorized in a higher social group in 2004/05 than in 1968/69. Moreover, there is a significant relationship between fewer teeth and a lower social group, and among the 50-year-old women, this was irrespective of examination year. However, multivariate analyses showed that the risk to be edentulous or not, or to have fewer remaining teeth was significantly higher for women of lower social group, or living alone, in all studies over the 36 year-period. This was independent of age group, even though the risk diminished over the study period. Cohort comparisons of women aged 38 and 50 years during 36 years showed that dental status improved, with (i) a decreasing prevalence of edentulism and, (ii) an increasing number of remaining teeth in dentate individuals over time. Differences due to social group and education were still present, with more remaining teeth in the women in the higher social group. A time trend analysis indicated that in the later examination years the individuals had fewer teeth lost, irrespective of age, marital status and, social group.

Stable isotopic perturbation at the Ordovician-Silurian transition in NE Poland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, A.; Gruszczynski, M.; Malkowski, K.

1992-01-01

An interpretation of the time series of stable isotopic proportions of carbon, oxygen, and sulfur in rock samples from subsurface Ordovician-Silurian transition in north-eastern Poland demonstrates a clearcut perturbation that must imply some global scale controlling factors. This perturbation is particularly emphasized by its comparison to the sustained secular Paleozoic trend in isotopic characteristics of the oceanic system. On the other hand, this isotopic perturbation contrasts with unidirectional local changes in geochemical elemental proportions in the same rock samples. The perturbation is most parsimoniously explained as linked to the onset of a major glaciation. Its relationship to the second largestmore » mass extinction in the history of the biosphere still remains to be elucidated.« less

Why are Mexican American boys so much taller now?

PubMed

Delajara, Marcelo; Rodríguez-Segura, Melissa

2010-07-01

Using NHANES data we find that the difference in average height between non-Hispanic White and Mexican American boys of ages 2-14 years has decreased 1.7 cm on average during the last quarter of the twentieth century in the United States. Our hypothesis is that the narrowing of the height gap is related to a larger gain in maternal height among Mexican Americans in relation to Whites. We estimate a child's height equation and find that on average about 38% of the reduction in the gap for boys of ages 2-5 years is attributed to this factor. The evidence of a secular trend for height is weak for the case of girls. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Importance of Turkish and US Relations: Contributing for Joint Objectives of a Secure Middle East

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-31

As a Muslim-majority country that is transitioning from being a secular democratic state toward its Islamic roots, a member of NATO, and a long...being a secular democratic state toward its Islamic roots, a member of NATO, and a long-standing US ally, Turkey is pivotal to the US strategy to shape...productive country needed education, so Kemal advocated a unified school system with secular, Turkish language schools.2 Under Mustafa Kemal’s leadership

Time to Exorcise Another Ghost From the Vietnam War: Restructuring the In-Service Conscientious Objector Program

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-04-01

rely on Lemon v . Kurtzman , 403 U.S. 602 (1971), in its analysis even though Lemon previously had been the most commonly applied analytical approach to...U.S. 203, (1963) (applying a secular purpose and principle effects test to measure neutrality); Lemon v . Kurtzman , 403 U.S. 602 (1971) (applying a...from Lemon along with measuring secular symbols as impacting determination of secular purpose and principle effect); Lee v . Weisman, 112 S. Ct. 2649

Secular resonances with massive asteroids and their impact on the dynamics of small bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsirvoulis, Georgios; Novaković, Bojan; Djošović, Valdimir

2015-08-01

The quest for understanding the dynamical structure of the main belt has been a long-lasting endeavor. From the discovery of the Kirkwood gaps and the Hirayama families, to the more recent advances in secular perturbation theory, the refinement of the proper elements and the discovery of the three-body mean-motion resonances, only to name a few, the progress has been immense. Dynamical models coupled with the outbursts in computational power and observations have greatly improved our knowledge of the dynamical evolution of the small bodies in the Solar System.While our set of tools for studying the dynamical porperties of the main belt is believed to be sufficiently complete, our assumptions on how to use them seem to have hindered this effort.The concensus has been that, judging by their mass, only the planets, especially the giant ones, can act as efficient perturbers of the orbits of asteroids. Thus a lot of studies have been made on the locations and effects of secular resonances with the giant planets in different parts of the main belt, explaining among other things the presence of gaps in the distribution of asteroids, strange shapes of some asteroid families and transport mechanisms of asteroids to the near-Earth region.Our work is motivated by the first discovery that a secular resonance with the most massive asteroid, Ceres, is the dominant dynamical mechanism responsible for the post-impact evolution of the Hoffmeister family members. Thus the concensus is wrong. Knowing now, that secular resonances with massive asteroids can be effective on asteroid dynamics, we set out to construct a dynamical map of these resonances across the main belt.Our study is focused on the linear and degree four non-linear secular resonances with the two most massive asteroids (1) Ceres and (4) Vesta. First we determine the locations of these secular resonances in the proper elements space, acquiring an understanding of the potentially affected regions, and then we perform numerical simulations to investigate the importance of each secular resonance on the dynamical evolution of asteroid orbits in the different parts of the main belt.

Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi bin; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2018-06-01

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to temperature extremes due to its predominant arid climate and geographic location in the fast temperature rising zone. Spatial distribution of the trends in annual and seasonal temperatures and temperature extremes over Pakistan has been assessed in this study. The gauge-based gridded daily temperature data of Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) having a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° was used for the assessment of trends over the period 1960-2013 using modified Mann-Kendall test (MMK), which can discriminate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. The results show an increase in the annual average of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 92 and 99% area of Pakistan respectively at 95% level of confidence. The annual temperature is increasing faster in southern high-temperature region compared to other parts of the country. The minimum temperature is rising faster (0.17-0.37 °C/decade) compared to maximum temperature (0.17-0.29 °C/decade) and therefore declination of diurnal temperature range (DTR) (- 0.15 to - 0.08 °C/decade) in some regions. The annual numbers of both hot and cold days are increasing in whole Pakistan except in the northern sub-Himalayan region. Heat waves are on the rise, especially in the hot Sindh plains and the Southern coastal region, while the cold waves are becoming lesser in the northern cold region. Obtained results contradict with the findings of previous studies on temperature trends, which indicate the need for reassessment of climatic trends in Pakistan using the MMK test to understand the anthropogenic impacts of climate change.

Response to Comment on "Does the Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Chou, Ming-Dah; Lindzen, Richard S.; Hou, Arthur Y.

2001-01-01

In his comment on Lindzen et al., Harrison found that the amount of high-level clouds, A, and the sea-surface temperature beneath clouds, T, averaged over a large oceanic domain in the western Pacific have secular linear trends of opposite signs over a period of 20 months. He found that when the linear trends are subtracted from the data, the correlation between the residual A and T is much reduced. His estimates of the confidence levels for the correlation indicate, moreover, that this correlation is not statistically significant. The domain-averaged A and, to a lesser degree, T, have distinct intra-seasonal and seasonal variations. These variations are influenced by the large-scale wind and temperature distributions and by the seasonal variation of insolation. To separate the local effect from the effect of slowly changing large-scale conditions, rather than subtracting 20-month linear trends from the series, which has the potential to spuriously extrapolate intra-seasonal and seasonal variations to even longer time scales, we subtracted 30-day running means of A and T from each time series; in effect, the data were high-pass filtered. The number of points (days), N, is reduced by this process from the original value of 510 to 480.

Lung cancer mortality trends in 36 European countries: secular trends and birth cohort patterns by sex and region 1970-2007.

PubMed

Bray, Freddie Ian; Weiderpass, Elisabete

2010-03-15

Smoking is a major contributor to all-cause mortality in Europe and accounts for one-fifth of the cancer-related deaths. Monitoring the tobacco epidemic via an analysis of lung cancer trends is essential in helping countries arrest the effects of tobacco epidemic in the region. The study aims to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the temporal patterns of lung cancer mortality in Europe, emphasizing country- and sex-specific differences. National lung cancer mortality data were extracted from the WHO mortality databank by age, sex, year of death (1970-2007) for 36 countries in Europe. Trends in lung cancer mortality in men have tended to decrease in many European countries during the last two decades, particularly in North and Western Europe. Among women, mortality rates are still increasing in many countries, although in a few populations, rates are beginning to stabilize, notably in the high-risk countries within Eastern Europe (Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic), and in Northern Europe (Denmark, Iceland and the United Kingdom). Men and women are clearly in very different phases of the smoking epidemic, and, as reflected in the mortality rates by birth cohort, the stage varies widely by country within each European region. That lung cancer mortality trends in men are on a downwards path in most European countries while female rates continue to rise, points to an urgent need for national and European prevention strategies that target tobacco cessation and prevention among European women.

Trends in Perceived Access to Marijuana Among Adolescents in the United States: 2002-2015.

PubMed

Salas-Wright, Christopher P; Oh, Sehun; Goings, Trenette Clark; Vaughn, Michael G

2017-09-01

There is concern that changes in marijuana-related policy and public opinion may lead to increased access to marijuana among young people in the United States. However, little research has been conducted on changes in youth's perceptions of marijuana access, and studies have yet to systematically examine trends in perceived access across key sociodemographic and externalizing behavioral subgroups. Using population-based data collected between 2002 and 2015 as part of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, we examined trends in perceived marijuana access among non-Hispanic White, African American, and Hispanic adolescents (ages 12-17, n = 221,412). Following the trend analysis method outlined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we conducted logistic regression analyses to test for secular trends. Between 2002 and 2015, we observed a 27% overall reduction in the relative proportion of adolescents ages 12-17-and a 42% reduction among those ages 12-14-reporting that it would be "very easy" to obtain marijuana. This pattern was uniformly observed among youth in all sociodemographic subgroups (i.e., across age, gender, race/ethnicity, household income) and among youth reporting involvement/no involvement in most measures of substance use (alcohol, marijuana) and delinquency (handgun carrying, attacks). However, perceived very easy access remained stable among youth reporting tobacco use and criminal justice system involvement. Despite the legalization of recreational and medical marijuana in some states, our findings suggest that, with the notable exception of adolescent tobacco users and juvenile offenders, perceptions that marijuana would be very easy to obtain are on the decline among American youth.

Paracelsus confronts the saints: miracles, healing and the secularization of magic.

PubMed

Webster, C

1995-12-01

The sixteenth and seventeenth centuries witnessed an erosion of the role played by the church in healing. Magical practices mediated by the church were replaced by the resources of medicine. This represented an important cultural development and it is often regarded as a manifestation of increasing secularization, the decline of magic and rise of science. This paper examines this issue with special reference to miraculous healing associated with saints, which constituted one of the most important facets of magic controlled by the church. It will be suggested that Paracelsus (Theophrast von Hohenheim, 1493-1541) played an important part in the argument concerning the miraculous powers of saints. Many works by Paracelsus produced at various points in his career were relevant to this issue, but De causis morborum invisibilium, the sequel to his important Opus Paraminum (1531), was especially significant. The question of miraculous healing was therefore important in the first, full presentation of the new system of medicine developed by Paracelsus. Modern commentators have understandably found De causis morborum invisibilium less intelligible and congenial than the more accessible Opus Paramirum. But the former was important to Paracelsus, and it addressed problems that were fundamental to his audience. This case-study shows how conclusions reached by Paracelsus about medical questions were integrally tied up with his theological standpoint and with his wider reaction to the acute crisis of confidence which affected the church and the established social order at the beginning of the sixteenth century. By eliminating the miraculous intervention of saints and promoting the secularization of magic, Paracelsus was contributing to one of the important cultural changes associated with the Reformation.

Elimination of secular terms from the differential equations for the elements of perturbed two-body motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bond, Victor R.; Fraietta, Michael F.

1991-01-01

In 1961, Sperling linearized and regularized the differential equations of motion of the two-body problem by changing the independent variable from time to fictitious time by Sundman's transformation (r = dt/ds) and by embedding the two-body energy integral and the Laplace vector. In 1968, Burdet developed a perturbation theory which was uniformly valid for all types of orbits using a variation of parameters approach on the elements which appeared in Sperling's equations for the two-body solution. In 1973, Bond and Hanssen improved Burdet's set of differential equations by embedding the total energy (which is a constant when the potential function is explicitly dependent upon time.) The Jacobian constant was used as an element to replace the total energy in a reformulation of the differential equations of motion. In the process, another element which is proportional to a component of the angular momentum was introduced. Recently trajectories computed during numerical studies of atmospheric entry from circular orbits and low thrust beginning in near-circular orbits exhibited numerical instability when solved by the method of Bond and Gottlieb (1989) for long time intervals. It was found that this instability was due to secular terms which appear on the righthand sides of the differential equations of some of the elements. In this paper, this instability is removed by the introduction of another vector integral called the delta integral (which replaces the Laplace Vector) and another scalar integral which removes the secular terms. The introduction of these integrals requires a new derivation of the differential equations for most of the elements. For this rederivation, the Lagrange method of variation of parameters is used, making the development more concise. Numerical examples of this improvement are presented.

Towards the Implementation of Semi-Dynamic Datum for Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shariff, N. S.; Gill, J.; Amin, Z. M.; Omar, K. M.

2017-10-01

A semi-dynamic datum provides positions with respect to time while taking into account the secular and non-secular deformations, making it the best approach to adapt with the dynamic processes of the earth. Malaysia, as yet, employs a static datum, i.e., GDM2000, at epoch 2000; though Malaysia has evidently been affected by seismic activity for the past decade. Therefore, this paper seeks to propose a design for implementing a semi-dynamic datum for Malaysia. Methodologically, GPS time series analyses are carried out to investigate the seismic activity of Malaysia, which essentially contributes to the proposed design of the semi-dynamic datum for Malaysia. The implications of implementing a semi-dynamic datum for Malaysia are discussed as well. The results indicate that Malaysia undergoes a complex deformation; whereby the earthquakes - primarily the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman, 2005 Nias and 2012 Northern Sumatra earthquakes - have affected the underlying secular velocities of Malaysia. Consequently, from this information, the proposed design, particularly the secular and non-secular deformation models, is described in detail. The proposed semi-dynamic datum comprises a transformation, temporal, and spatial module, and utilizes a bilinear interpolation method. Overall, this paper aims to contribute to the feasibility of a semi-dynamic datum approach for Malaysia.

Variations in droughts and wet spells and their influences in China: 1924-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shuang; Yan, Xiaodong

2018-02-01

The Wetness Index was calculated using gridded monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in China during 1924-2013. Variations of dry and wet periods in different areas and the impact of meteorological factors were analyzed. The results show the following: (1) Drought areas (W ≤ 0.5) and wet areas (W > 0.65) in China constituted 33-56% and 35-55%, respectively, of the total land area and there were no secular trends during 1924-2013. During this period, the areas of drought and wet were inversely proportional, but had different changes among seven regions. (2) Since 1954, the overall trend in China has changed from wet to dry. Drought areas increased significantly (p < 0.05) during 1954-1983. Drought areas increased (not significantly) during 1984-2013, but the rate of drought/wetness clearly decreased (tendency rates were between - 0.05 and 0.05/30 year, and accounted for 54.79% of China). (3) Dry/wet variation in North, Northeast, Central, and Southwest China played major roles. (4) Except in the North region, drought/wet conditions were affected by surface warming.

Atmospheric evidence for a global secular increase in isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeling, R. F.; Graven, H. D.; Welp, L.; Piper, S. C.; Bollenbacher, A.; Resplandy, L.; Meijer, H. A. J.

2016-12-01

A decrease in the 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2 owing to the addition of fossil-fuel derived CO2, known as the 13C-Suess effect, has been documented by direct observations since 1977 and from ice-core measurements since the industrial revolution. Measurements of this decrease have previously been used to constrain land and ocean carbon sinks. Here we show, however, that no plausible combination of land and ocean sinks can explain the 13C/12C decrease unless an increase has occurred in the isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis, i.e. the tendency of land plants to preferentially assimilate 12CO2 compared to 13CO2. A trend toward greater discrimination at higher CO2 levels is broadly consistent with geological evidence for the response of C3 plants at times of altered atmospheric CO2 as well as with tree-ring studies over the past century. The discrimination trend will be discussed in the context of theories for optimal stomatal behavior under changing atmospheric CO2.

Empirically supported religious and spiritual therapies.

PubMed

Hook, Joshua N; Worthington, Everett L; Davis, Don E; Jennings, David J; Gartner, Aubrey L; Hook, Jan P

2010-01-01

This article evaluated the efficacy status of religious and spiritual (R/S) therapies for mental health problems, including treatments for depression, anxiety, unforgiveness, eating disorders, schizophrenia, alcoholism, anger, and marital issues. Religions represented included Christianity, Islam, Taoism, and Buddhism. Some studies incorporated a generic spirituality. Several R/S therapies were found to be helpful for clients, supporting the further use and research on these therapies. There was limited evidence that R/S therapies outperformed established secular therapies, thus the decision to use an R/S therapy may be an issue of client preference and therapist comfort.

Reflections on psychoanalytic treatment of Lubavitch Chassidim couples: working with a culturally divergent population.

PubMed

Schulman, Martin A; Kaplan, Ricki S

2014-08-01

Chassidic Jews create separate developmental lines for males and females beginning at three years of age. Since early marriages are encouraged and there is minimal contact between the sexes prior to marriage, problems inevitably arise in relationships. This article discusses both newlywed and long-term married Lubavitch Chassidim in couples treatment with secular analysts, parameters necessary for successful treatment, and countertransferences that arise. It is part of an ongoing series of publications based on the authors' decade-long psychoanalytic work with this population.

Localized sudden changes in the geomagnetic secular variation.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alldredge, L.R.

1987-01-01

There is much debate as to whether there was a worldwide geomagnetic jerk in 1969 or 1970. It is agreed that there was an unusual sharp change in the secular variation in the east component, Y, in Europe at that time. This note points out how a localized sudden change in the secular variation pattern of one component in Europe can occur without having any large worldwide effects in any of the components. The accompanying changes in the spherical harmonic coefficients for such a localized change are also discussed. -after Author

Growth trends in boys and girls (10-17 years-old) from autonomous region of Madeira, Portugal between 1996-1998 and 2007-2009.

PubMed

Sousa, B; Oliveira, B M P M; de Almeida, M D V

2012-01-01

Growth trends have never been studied in adolescents of the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal. To analyse growth trends in weight, height, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) and triceps skin-fold thickness (TST) of adolescents (10-17 years old) of the Autonomous Region of Madeira between 1996-1998 and 2007-2009. A cross-sectional study was carried out between 2007-2009, including 4314 adolescents, 2237 girls and 2077 boys (10-17 years old). To study secular growth trends, data were compared with a sample from 1996-1998, comparing the means for each anthropometric variable by age and sex using the independent-sample t-test. An average increase was found in weight of 5.8 kg in boys and 6.3 kg in girls; in height of 3.0 cm in boys and 3.7 cm in girls; in BMI of 1.5 kg/m(2) in boys and 1.7 kg/m(2) in girls; in WC a difference of 5.6 cm and 4.9 cm for boys and girls, respectively, and for MUAC a difference of 2.7 cm in boys and 2.0 cm in girls. No differences were found in TST in boys, but in girls an increase of 1.2 mm was observed. A general increase in anthropometric measurements, more marked in weight, BMI, WC and MUAC and at younger ages, was observed.

Secular Acceleration of Barnard's Star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, Jennifer L.; Ianna, P. A.

2009-01-01

Barnard's Star should have significant secular acceleration because it lies close to the Sun and has the highest known proper motion along with a large radial velocity. It will pass within about 1.4 pc in another 9,750 years. Secular changes in proper motion and radial velocity are essentially the Coriolis and centrifugal accelerations, respectively, arising from use of a rotating coordinate system defined by the Sun-star radius vector. Although stellar space velocities measured with respect to the Sun are essentially constant, these perspective effects arise with changing distance and viewing angle. Hipparcos-2 plus Nidever et al. (2002) predict a perspective change in the proper motion of 1.285±0.006 mas yr-2 for Barnard's Star. Recent analysis of 900+ photographic plates between 1968 and 1998 with the 26.25-in (0.67-m) McCormick refractor detected a secular acceleration of 1.25±0.04 mas yr-2, which agrees with the predicted value within the measurement errors. Earlier, Benedict et al. (1999) measured its secular acceleration to be 1.2±0.2 mas yr-2 using 3 years of HST FGS observations. Similarly, a perspective change in radial velocity of 4.50±0.01 m s-1 yr-1 can be predicted for Barnard's Star. Kürster et al. (2003) detected variations in their observations of it that are largely attributable to secular acceleration along the line of sight with some contribution from stellar activity. Although secular acceleration effects have been limited for past studies of stellar motions, they can be significant for observations extending over decades or for high-precision measurements required to detect extrasolar planets. Future studies will need to consider this factor for the nearest stars and for those with large proper motions or radial velocities. NSF grant AST 98-20711; Litton Marine Systems; Peninsula Community Foundation Levinson Fund; UVa Governor's Fellowship, Dean's F&A Fellowship, and Graduate School of Arts and Sciences; and, US Naval Observatory supported this research.

Flow throughout the Earth's core inverted from geomagnetic observations and numerical dynamo models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubert, Julien

2013-02-01

This paper introduces inverse geodynamo modelling, a framework imaging flow throughout the Earth's core from observations of the geomagnetic field and its secular variation. The necessary prior information is provided by statistics from 3-D and self-consistent numerical simulations of the geodynamo. The core method is a linear estimation (or Kalman filtering) procedure, combined with standard frozen-flux core surface flow inversions in order to handle the non-linearity of the problem. The inversion scheme is successfully validated using synthetic test experiments. A set of four numerical dynamo models of increasing physical complexity and similarity to the geomagnetic field is then used to invert for flows at single epochs within the period 1970-2010, using data from the geomagnetic field models CM4 and gufm-sat-Q3. The resulting core surface flows generally provide satisfactory fits to the secular variation within the level of modelled errors, and robustly reproduce the most commonly observed patterns while additionally presenting a high degree of equatorial symmetry. The corresponding deep flows present a robust, highly columnar structure once rotational constraints are enforced to a high level in the prior models, with patterns strikingly similar to the results of quasi-geostrophic inversions. In particular, the presence of a persistent planetary scale, eccentric westward columnar gyre circling around the inner core is confirmed. The strength of the approach is to uniquely determine the trade-off between fit to the data and complexity of the solution by clearly connecting it to first principle physics; statistical deviations observed between the inverted flows and the standard model behaviour can then be used to quantitatively assess the shortcomings of the physical modelling. Such deviations include the (i) westwards and (ii) hemispherical character of the eccentric gyre. A prior model with angular momentum conservation of the core-mantle inner-core system, and gravitational coupling of reasonable strength between the mantle and the inner core, is shown to produce enough westward drift to resolve statistical deviation (i). Deviation (ii) is resolved by a prior with an hemispherical buoyancy release at the inner-core boundary, with excess buoyancy below Asia. This latter result suggests that the recently proposed inner-core translational instability presently transports the solid inner-core material westwards, opposite to the seismologically inferred long-term trend but consistently with the eccentricity of the geomagnetic dipole in recent times.

Relative secular variations of the geomagnetic field along the Zgorzelec-Wiżajny profile, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wojas, Anna; Grabowska, Teresa; Mikołajczak, Mateusz

2018-03-01

The paper presents results of the study on relative secular variations of total magnetic intensity (TMI) of the geomagnetic field along the 700 km long profile crossing the area of Poland. Surveys were carried out at annual intervals between 1966 and 2016 (50 measurement series), in 31 survey sites (secular points) separated by about 22 km. The studied profile of the SW-NE direction, called Zgorzelec-Wiżajny (Z-W), crosses large parts of the main tectonic units of Europe, namely the Palaeozoic Platform of Central and Western Europe (PLZ) and the East European Craton (EEC), connected by the Teisseyre-Tornquist Zone (TTZ). Using the original methodology of analysis of measured data, reduced to the values of geomagnetic field recorded at the Central Geophysical Observatory in Belsk, the relative secular variations of TMI with the magnetic anomalies (ΔT) and the terrestrial heat flow density (Q) were graphically presented.

Gender identity, nationalism, and social action among Jewish and Arab women in Israel: redefining the social order?

PubMed

Moore, D

2000-01-01

In the study this article explores, the meaning of gender identity for religious and secular Jewish and Arab women in Israeli society is examined. The study focuses on how Israeli women, rank gender identity, relative to other identities like being Jewish/Arab, being Israeli/Palestinian, religious or secular, of a certain ethnic group, and political identity. It examines the characteristics of gender identity and the attitudes that are associated with it. The analysis shows that the hierarchies of identities are different for religious and secular Jewish and Arab women, and that this is related to having different sociopolitical attitudes (e.g., Women's social and political involvement, social obedience, social influence). Thus, the hierarchy of identities and the sociopolitical attitudes of religious women indicate a more consensual acceptance of the social order than the hierarchy of identities and the sociopolitical attitudes of secular women, especially among Arab women.

NASA trend analysis procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

Reference frame access under the effects of great earthquakes: a least squares collocation approach for non-secular post-seismic evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, D. D.; Piñón, D. A.; Smalley, R.; Bevis, M.; Cimbaro, S. R.; Lenzano, L. E.; Barón, J.

2016-03-01

The 2010, (Mw 8.8) Maule, Chile, earthquake produced large co-seismic displacements and non-secular, post-seismic deformation, within latitudes 28°S-40°S extending from the Pacific to the Atlantic oceans. Although these effects are easily resolvable by fitting geodetic extended trajectory models (ETM) to continuous GPS (CGPS) time series, the co- and post-seismic deformation cannot be determined at locations without CGPS (e.g., on passive geodetic benchmarks). To estimate the trajectories of passive geodetic benchmarks, we used CGPS time series to fit an ETM that includes the secular South American plate motion and plate boundary deformation, the co-seismic discontinuity, and the non-secular, logarithmic post-seismic transient produced by the earthquake in the Posiciones Geodésicas Argentinas 2007 (POSGAR07) reference frame (RF). We then used least squares collocation (LSC) to model both the background secular inter-seismic and the non-secular post-seismic components of the ETM at the locations without CGPS. We tested the LSC modeled trajectories using campaign and CGPS data that was not used to generate the model and found standard deviations (95 % confidence level) for position estimates for the north and east components of 3.8 and 5.5 mm, respectively, indicating that the model predicts the post-seismic deformation field very well. Finally, we added the co-seismic displacement field, estimated using an elastic finite element model. The final, trajectory model allows accessing the POSGAR07 RF using post-Maule earthquake coordinates within 5 cm for ˜ 91 % of the passive test benchmarks.

The Dynamics of Tightly-packed Planetary Systems in the Presence of an Outer Planet: Case Studies Using Kepler-11 and Kepler-90

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granados Contreras, A. P.; Boley, A. C.

2018-03-01

We explore the effects of an undetected outer giant planet on the dynamics, observability, and stability of Systems with Tightly-packed Inner Planets (STIPs). We use direct numerical simulations along with secular theory and synthetic secular frequency spectra to analyze how analogues of Kepler-11 and Kepler-90 behave in the presence of a nearly co-planar, Jupiter-like outer perturber with semimajor axes between 1 and 5.2 au. Most locations of the outer perturber do not affect the evolution of the inner planetary systems, apart from altering precession frequencies. However, there are locations at which an outer planet causes system instability due to, in part, secular eccentricity resonances. In Kepler-90, there is a range of orbital distances for which the outer perturber drives planets b and c, through secular interactions, onto orbits with inclinations that are ∼16° away from the rest of the planets. Kepler-90 is stable in this configuration. Such secular resonances can thus affect the observed multiplicity of transiting systems. We also compare the synthetic apsidal and nodal precession frequencies with the secular theory and find some misalignment between principal frequencies, indicative of strong interactions between the planets (consistent with the system showing TTVs). First-order libration angles are calculated to identify MMRs in the systems, for which two near-MMRs are shown in Kepler-90, with a 5:4 between b and c, as well as a 3:2 between g and h.

Secular trends of reduced visual acuity from 1985 to 2010 and disease burden projection for 2020 and 2030 among primary and secondary school students in China.

PubMed

Sun, Hong-Peng; Li, Ang; Xu, Yong; Pan, Chen-Wei

2015-03-01

Understanding the burden and trends of reduced visual acuity (VA), a proxy measure for myopia, is essential to guide future health care and clinical management in China. To describe the secular trends from 1985 to 2010, correlate the prevalence of reduced VA among children and adolescents with population density, and project the burden of reduced VA in China in 2020 and 2030. The National Survey on the Constitution and Health of Chinese Students conducted from 1985 to 2010, including 6 repeated surveys with a 3-stage clustering sampling strategy. Mainland China. Primary and secondary school students 7 to 18 years of age were randomly selected from 30 of 31 mainland provinces, excluding Tibet. Unaided distance VA was measured using a retroilluminated logMAR chart with tumbling-E optotypes. World Population Prospects data (the 2012 revision from the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations) were used to project the number of people affected by reduced VA in 2020 and 2030. This analysis included 725 423, 142 655, 206 601, 219 663, 234 377, and 215 308 students in 1985, 1991, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010, respectively. The overall prevalence of reduced VA was 28.6% (95% CI, 28.4%-28.7%) in 1985, 38.6% (95% CI, 38.3%-38.8%) in 1991, 41.0% (95% CI, 40.8%-41.2%) in 1995, 38.5% (95% CI, 38.3%-38.7%) in 2000, 49.5% (95% CI, 49.3%-49.7%) in 2005, and 56.8% (95% CI, 56.6%-57.0%) in 2010. Girls were more susceptible than boys to having reduced VA (odds ratio, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.35-1.40]), and reduced VA was more prevalent in urban areas than in rural areas (odds ratio, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.81-1.87]). Reduced VA was not significantly associated with population density (P = .11). The projected numbers of cases with reduced VA are about 152.4 million (95% CI, 151.9-152.9 million) in 2020, increasing to 180.4 million (95% CI, 179.8-181.2 million) in 2030 among students who are 7 to 18 years of age in mainland China. There was an increasing trend of reduced VA in both urban and rural areas from 1985 to 2010 in China. Although reduced unaided distance VA is not equal to visual impairment, these summary data are helpful in designing strategies for eye care and health services in China, which may also have public health implications for other developing countries whose economies are growing rapidly.

Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.; Mursula, K.; Tsai, V.C.; Perkins, D.M.

2011-01-01

Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically- significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction. ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Time variability in Cenozoic reconstructions of mantle heat flow: plate tectonic cycles and implications for Earth's thermal evolution.

PubMed

Loyd, S J; Becker, T W; Conrad, C P; Lithgow-Bertelloni, C; Corsetti, F A

2007-09-04

The thermal evolution of Earth is governed by the rate of secular cooling and the amount of radiogenic heating. If mantle heat sources are known, surface heat flow at different times may be used to deduce the efficiency of convective cooling and ultimately the temporal character of plate tectonics. We estimate global heat flow from 65 Ma to the present using seafloor age reconstructions and a modified half-space cooling model, and we find that heat flow has decreased by approximately 0.15% every million years during the Cenozoic. By examining geometric trends in plate reconstructions since 120 Ma, we show that the reduction in heat flow is due to a decrease in the area of ridge-proximal oceanic crust. Even accounting for uncertainties in plate reconstructions, the rate of heat flow decrease is an order of magnitude faster than estimates based on smooth, parameterized cooling models. This implies that heat flow experiences short-term fluctuations associated with plate tectonic cyclicity. Continental separation does not appear to directly control convective wavelengths, but rather indirectly affects how oceanic plate systems adjust to accommodate global heat transport. Given that today's heat flow may be unusually low, secular cooling rates estimated from present-day values will tend to underestimate the average cooling rate. Thus, a mechanism that causes less efficient tectonic heat transport at higher temperatures may be required to prevent an unreasonably hot mantle in the recent past.

Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Mursula, Kalevi; Tsai, Victor C.; Perkins, David M.

2011-11-01

Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically-significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction.

Time variability in Cenozoic reconstructions of mantle heat flow: Plate tectonic cycles and implications for Earth's thermal evolution

PubMed Central

Loyd, S. J.; Becker, T. W.; Conrad, C. P.; Lithgow-Bertelloni, C.; Corsetti, F. A.

2007-01-01

The thermal evolution of Earth is governed by the rate of secular cooling and the amount of radiogenic heating. If mantle heat sources are known, surface heat flow at different times may be used to deduce the efficiency of convective cooling and ultimately the temporal character of plate tectonics. We estimate global heat flow from 65 Ma to the present using seafloor age reconstructions and a modified half-space cooling model, and we find that heat flow has decreased by ∼0.15% every million years during the Cenozoic. By examining geometric trends in plate reconstructions since 120 Ma, we show that the reduction in heat flow is due to a decrease in the area of ridge-proximal oceanic crust. Even accounting for uncertainties in plate reconstructions, the rate of heat flow decrease is an order of magnitude faster than estimates based on smooth, parameterized cooling models. This implies that heat flow experiences short-term fluctuations associated with plate tectonic cyclicity. Continental separation does not appear to directly control convective wavelengths, but rather indirectly affects how oceanic plate systems adjust to accommodate global heat transport. Given that today's heat flow may be unusually low, secular cooling rates estimated from present-day values will tend to underestimate the average cooling rate. Thus, a mechanism that causes less efficient tectonic heat transport at higher temperatures may be required to prevent an unreasonably hot mantle in the recent past. PMID:17720806

Central overweight and obesity in Polish schoolchildren aged 7-18 years: secular changes of waist circumference between 1966 and 2012.

PubMed

Suder, Agnieszka; Gomula, Aleksandra; Koziel, Slawomir

2017-07-01

We investigated secular trends of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in Polish schoolchildren examined through a period of almost 50 years. Data on height, weight and WC came from four cross-sectional surveys conducted in Poland between 1966 and 2012, covering 34,005 boys and 34,008 girls. Raw data of BMI and WC were standardized for age classes. Statistical analyses included the Kruskal-Willis test and Pearson Chi-square test. BMI and WC increased during the studied period; however, the growth was higher for WC (increase by 0.56 and 0.44 SD scores for BMI and 1.05 and 0.77 SD scores for WC in boys and girls, respectively). In boys, secular changes in BMI and WC were similar across childhood, early and late adolescence, while in girls they differed, indicating change in the type of adipose tissue distribution to a more central one in late adolescent girls. During 46 years, there was a tendency to a greater increase of the fraction of individuals with central obesity than the overall one. Since abdominal fat deposit is more connected with higher health risks than subcutaneous fat pattern, probably the number of metabolic complications in Polish children and adolescents will intensify in the future. What is Known: • BMI has significant limitations related to fat distribution, while WC is a measure of central adiposity. • Greater central fat deposition increases the risk of many diseases; therefore, WC may serve as a diagnostic measure for detecting central obesity in children at risk. What is New: • In girls, changes in BMI and WC indicate change in adipose tissue distribution to a more central one in late adolescence girls. • Both general and abdominal obesity in Polish children increased significantly from 1966 to 2012, with the tendency to a greater increase of the fraction of individuals with central obesity than the overall one, implying the number of metabolic complications in Polish children and adolescents may intensify in the future.

First archeointensity determinations on Maya incense burners from Palenque temples, Mexico: New data to constrain the Mesoamerica secular variation curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanjat, G.; Camps, P.; Alva Valdivia, L. M.; Sougrati, M. T.; Cuevas-Garcia, M.; Perrin, M.

2013-02-01

We present archeointensity data carried out on pieces of incense burners from the ancient Maya city of Palenque, Chiapas, Mexico, covering much of the Mesoamerican Classic period, from A.D. 400 to A.D. 850. We worked on pieces from 24 incense burners encompassing the five Classic ceramic phases of Palenque: Motiepa (A.D. 400-500), Cascadas (A.D. 500-600), Otulum (A.D. 600-700), Murcielagos (A.D. 700-770), and Balunté (A.D. 770-850). All the samples come from highly elaborate, flanged pedestal of incense burners that are undoubtedly assigned to a ceramic phase by means of their iconographic, morphological and stylistic analyses. Archeointensity measurements were performed with the Thellier-Thellier's method on pre-selected samples by means of their magnetic properties. We obtained archeointensities of very good technical quality from 19 of 24 pieces, allowing the determination of a precise mean value for each ceramic phase, between 29.1±0.9 μT and 32.5±1.2 μT. The firing temperatures of ceramics were estimated with Mössbauer spectroscopy between 700 °C and 1000 °C. These values ensure that a full thermo-remanent magnetization was acquired during the original heating. Our results suggest a relative stability of the field intensity during more than 400 years in this area. The abundance of archeological material in Mesoamerica contrasts with the small amount of archeomagnetic data available that are, in addition, of uneven quality. Thus, it is not possible to establish a trend of intensity variations in Mesoamerica, even using the global databases and secular variation predictions from global models. In this context, our high technical quality data represent a strong constraint for the Mesoamerican secular variation curve during the first millennium AD. The corresponding Virtual Axial Dipole Moments (VADM) are substantially smaller than the ones predicted by the last global geomagnetic models CALS3k.4, suggesting the need for additional data to develop a regional model and a reference curve for Mesoamerica.

Evaluation and application of an algorithm for atmospheric profiling continuity from Aqua to Suomi-NPP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipton, A.; Moncet, J. L.; Lynch, R.; Payne, V.; Alvarado, M. J.

2016-12-01

We will present results from an algorithm that is being developed to produce climate-quality atmospheric profiling earth system data records (ESDRs) for application to data from hyperspectral sounding instruments, including the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) on EOS Aqua and the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on Suomi-NPP, along with their companion microwave sounders, AMSU and ATMS, respectively. The ESDR algorithm uses an optimal estimation approach and the implementation has a flexible, modular software structure to support experimentation and collaboration. Data record continuity benefits from the fact that the same algorithm can be applied to different sensors, simply by providing suitable configuration and data files. For analysis of satellite profiles over multi-decade periods, a concern is that the algorithm could respond inadequately to climate change if it uses a static background as a retrieval constraint, leading to retrievals that underestimate secular changes over extended periods of time and become biased toward an outdated climatology. We assessed the ability of our algorithm to respond appropriately to changes in temperature and water vapor profiles associated with climate change and, in particular, on the impact of using a climatological background in retrievals when the climatology is not static. We simulated a scenario wherein our algorithm processes 30 years of data from CrIS and ATMS (CrIMSS) with a static background based on data from the start of the 30-year period. We performed simulations using products from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), and in particular the "representative concentration pathways" midrange emissions (RCP4.5) scenario from the GISS-E2-R model. We will present results indicating that regularization using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) from a 30-year outdated covariance had a negligible effect on results. For temperature, the secular change is represented with high fidelity with the CrIMSS retrievals. For water vapor, an outdated background adds distortion to the secular moistening trend in the troposphere only above 300 mb, where the sensor information content is less than at lower levels. We will also present results illustrating the consistency between retrievals from near-simultaneous AIRS and CrIMSS measurements.

Rock-magnetic changes with reduction diagenesis in Japan Sea sediments and preservation of geomagnetic secular variation in inclination during the last 30,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, T.; Abdeldayem, A. L.; Ikehara, K.

2003-06-01

A rock-magnetic and paleomagnetic study was conducted on a sediment core of about 4.4 m long taken from the northeastern part of the Japan Sea. The core covers the last about 30 kyrs, which was dated by nineteen radiocarbon (14C) ages. Remanent magnetization is carried dominantly by magnetite. Reductive dissolution of magnetic minerals occurs between 1.2 and 1.6 m in depth (about 5-8 ka in age). A rapid downcore decrease of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) begins at the shallowest depth. Saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM) follows, and a decrease of magnetic susceptibility (k) takes place at the deepest. Within this zone, coercivity of natural remanent magnetization (NRM) and the ratios of ARM to k and SIRM to k also decreases with depth. These observations indicate that finer magnetic grains were lost earlier than larger grains. A decrease of S ratios, wasp-waisted hysteresis curves, and a deviation from a mixing trend of single-domain and multi-domain grains in a Day plot occur as the dissolution proceeds, which suggests that high coercivity minerals like hematite are more resistive to dissolution than low coercivity minerals like magnetite. The start of the dissolution at 1.2 m in depth is synchronous with increases in organic-carbon and total-sulfur contents, but the horizon does not coincide with the present Fe-redox boundary at about 0.02 m below the sediment-water interface. From low-temperature magnetometry, it is estimated that magnetites with maghemite skin are reduced to pure magnetites prior to dissolution. There is no evidence for precipitation of secondary magnetic phases and acquisition of chemical remanent magnetization (CRM). Neither pyrrhotite nor greigite was detected. Information of paleomagnetic directions have survived the reductive dissolution. Inclination variations of this core resembles closely to the secular variation records available around Japan. Well-dated records older than 10 ka are still very rare, and hence our new record could be useful for establishing regional secular variations.

Secular Evolution in Disk Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kormendy, John

2013-10-01

Self-gravitating systems evolve toward the most tightly bound configuration that is reachable via the evolution processes that are available to them. They do this by spreading -- the inner parts shrink while the outer parts expand -- provided that some physical process efficiently transports energy or angular momentum outward. The reason is that self-gravitating systems have negative specific heats. As a result, the evolution of stars, star clusters, protostellar and protoplanetary disks, black hole accretion disks and galaxy disks are fundamentally similar. How evolution proceeds then depends on the evolution processes that are available to each kind of self-gravitating system. These processes and their consequences for galaxy disks are the subjects of my lectures and of this Canary Islands Winter School. I begin with a review of the formation, growth and death of bars. Then I review the slow (`secular') rearrangement of energy, angular momentum, and mass that results from interactions between stars or gas clouds and collective phenomena such as bars, oval disks, spiral structure and triaxial dark haloes. The `existence-proof' phase of this work is largely over: we have a good heuristic understanding of how nonaxisymmetric structures rearrange disk gas into outer rings, inner rings and stuff dumped onto the centre. The results of simulations correspond closely to the morphology of barred and oval galaxies. Gas that is transported to small radii reaches high densities. Observations confirm that many barred and oval galaxies have dense central concentrations of gas and star formation. The result is to grow, on timescales of a few Gyr, dense central components that are frequently mistaken for classical (elliptical-galaxy-like) bulges but that were grown slowly out of the disk (not made rapidly by major mergers). The resulting picture of secular galaxy evolution accounts for the richness observed in galaxy structure. We can distinguish between classical and pseudo bulges because the latter retain a `memory' of their disky origin. That is, they have one or more characteristics of disks: (1) flatter shapes than those of classical bulges, (2) correspondingly large ratios of ordered to random velocities, (3) small velocity dispersions with respect to the Faber-Jackson correlation between velocity dispersion and bulge luminosity, (4) spiral structure or nuclear bars in the `bulge' part of the light profile, (5) nearly exponential brightness profiles and (6) starbursts. So the cleanest examples of pseudobulges are recognisable. However, pseudo and classical bulges can coexist in the same galaxy. I review two important implications of secular evolution: (1) The existence of pseudobulges highlights a problem with our theory of galaxy formation by hierarchical clustering. We cannot explain galaxies that are completely bulgeless. Galaxy mergers are expected to happen often enough so that every giant galaxy should have a classical bulge. But we observe that bulgeless giant galaxies are common in field environments. We now realise that many dense centres of galaxies that we used to think are bulges were not made by mergers; they were grown out of disks. So the challenge gets more difficult. This is the biggest problem faced by our theory of galaxy formation. (2) Pseudobulges are observed to contain supermassive black holes (BHs), but they do not show the well-known, tight correlations between BH mass and the mass and velocity dispersion of the host bulge. This leads to the suggestion that there are two fundamentally different BH feeding processes. Rapid global inward gas transport in galaxy mergers leads to giant BHs that correlate with host ellipticals and classical bulges, whereas local and more stochastic feeding of small BHs in largely bulgeless galaxies evidently involves too little energy feedback to result in BH-host coevolution. It is an important success of the secular evolution picture that morphological differences can be used to divide bulges into two types that correlate differently with their BHs. I review environmental secular evolution -- the transformation of gas-rich, star-forming spiral and irregular galaxies into gas-poor, `red and dead' S0 and spheroidal (`Sph') galaxies. I show that Sph galaxies such as NGC205 and Draco are not the low-luminosity end of the structural sequence (the `fundamental plane') of elliptical galaxies. Instead, Sph galaxies have structural parameters like those of low-luminosity S+Im galaxies. Spheroidals are continuous in their structural parameters~with~the disks of S0 galaxies. They are bulgeless S0s. S+Im -->S0+Sph transformation involves a variety of internal (supernova-driven baryon ejection) and environmental processes (e.g., ram-pressure gas stripping, harassment, and starvation). Finally, I summarise how hierarchical clustering and secular processes can be combined into a consistent and comprehensive picture of galaxy evolution.

The global frequency-wave number spectrum of oceanic variability estimated from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric measurements. Volume 100, No. C12; The Journal of Geophysical Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wunsch, Carl; Stammer, Detlef

1995-01-01

Two years of altimetric data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON spacecraft have been used to produce preliminary estimates of the space and time spectra of global variability for both sea surface height and slope. The results are expressed in terms of both degree variances from spherical harmonic expansions and in along-track wavenumbers. Simple analytic approximations both in terms of piece-wise power laws and Pade fractions are provided for comparison with independent measurements and for easy use of the results. A number of uses of such spectra exist, including the possibility of combining the altimetric data with other observations, predictions of spatial coherences, and the estimation of the accuracy of apparent secular trends in sea level.

What can Pakistan do to address maternal and child health over the next decade?

PubMed

Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Hafeez, Assad

2015-11-25

Pakistan faces huge challenges in meeting its international obligations and agreed Millennium Development Goal targets for reducing maternal and child mortality. While there have been reductions in maternal and under-5 child mortality, overall rates are barely above secular trends and neonatal mortality has not reduced much. Progress in addressing basic determinants, such as poverty, undernutrition, safe water, and sound sanitary conditions as well as female education, is unsatisfactory and, not surprisingly, population growth hampers economic growth and development across the country. The devolution of health to the provinces has created challenges as well as opportunities for action. This paper presents a range of actions needed for change within the health and social sectors, including primary care, social determinants, strategies to reach the unreached, and accountability.

Trends affecting the future of vaccine development and delivery: The role of demographics, regulatory science, the anti-vaccine movement, and vaccinomics

PubMed Central

Poland, Gregory A.; Jacobson, Robert M.; Ovsyannikova, Inna G.

2009-01-01

Important scientific, cultural, temporal, and secular issues impact the development of, and delivery of vaccines. In this paper we discuss the impact of demographics, regulatory science, the anti-vaccine movement, and finally the impact of the new biology and individualized medicine, which we call vaccinomics, on vaccine development and delivery. A description of the issues and how they have, are, or should be impacting vaccinology is provided, and hopefully will result in increased attention and discussion among vaccinologists. These issues have been under-valued, under-discussed, and in some cases, ignored. We hope that discussion of these issues will result in changes in how we develop, and how we communicate those developments, to the public. PMID:19200833

International Geomagnetic Reference Field: the 12th generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thébault, Erwan; Finlay, Christopher C.; Beggan, Ciarán D.; Alken, Patrick; Aubert, Julien; Barrois, Olivier; Bertrand, Francois; Bondar, Tatiana; Boness, Axel; Brocco, Laura; Canet, Elisabeth; Chambodut, Aude; Chulliat, Arnaud; Coïsson, Pierdavide; Civet, François; Du, Aimin; Fournier, Alexandre; Fratter, Isabelle; Gillet, Nicolas; Hamilton, Brian; Hamoudi, Mohamed; Hulot, Gauthier; Jager, Thomas; Korte, Monika; Kuang, Weijia; Lalanne, Xavier; Langlais, Benoit; Léger, Jean-Michel; Lesur, Vincent; Lowes, Frank J.; Macmillan, Susan; Mandea, Mioara; Manoj, Chandrasekharan; Maus, Stefan; Olsen, Nils; Petrov, Valeriy; Ridley, Victoria; Rother, Martin; Sabaka, Terence J.; Saturnino, Diana; Schachtschneider, Reyko; Sirol, Olivier; Tangborn, Andrew; Thomson, Alan; Tøffner-Clausen, Lars; Vigneron, Pierre; Wardinski, Ingo; Zvereva, Tatiana

2015-05-01

The 12th generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) was adopted in December 2014 by the Working Group V-MOD appointed by the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA). It updates the previous IGRF generation with a definitive main field model for epoch 2010.0, a main field model for epoch 2015.0, and a linear annual predictive secular variation model for 2015.0-2020.0. Here, we present the equations defining the IGRF model, provide the spherical harmonic coefficients, and provide maps of the magnetic declination, inclination, and total intensity for epoch 2015.0 and their predicted rates of change for 2015.0-2020.0. We also update the magnetic pole positions and discuss briefly the latest changes and possible future trends of the Earth's magnetic field.

An prediction and explanation of 'climatic swing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkin, Yury

2010-05-01

Introduction. In works of the author [1, 2] the mechanism has been offered and the scenario of formation of congelations and warming of the Earth and their inversion and asymmetric displays in opposite hemispheres has been described. These planetary thermal processes are connected with gravitational forced oscillations of the core-mantle system of the Earth, controlling and directing submission of heat in the top layers of the mantle and on a surface of the Earth. It is shown, that action of this mechanism should observed in various time scales. In particular significant changes of a climate should occur to the thousand-year periods, with the periods in tens and hundred thousand years. Thus excitation of system the core-mantle is caused by planetary secular orbital perturbations and by perturbations of the Earth rotation which as is known are characterized by significant amplitudes. But also in a short time scale the climate variations with the interannual and decade periods also should be observed, how dynamic consequences of the swing of the core-mantle system of the Earth with the same periods [3]. The fundamental phenomenon of secular polar drift of the core relatively to the viscous-elastic and changeable mantle [4] in last years has obtained convincing confirmations various geosciences. Reliable an attribute of influence of oscillations of the core on a variation of natural processes is their property of inversion when, for example, activity of process accrues in northern hemisphere and decreases in a southern hemisphere. Such contrast secular changes in northern and southern (N/S) hemispheres have been predicted on the base of geodynamic model [1] and revealed according to observations: from gravimetry measurements of a gravity [5]; in determination of a secular trend of a sea level, as global, and in northern and southern hemispheres [6, 7]; in redistribution of air masses [6, 8]; in geodetic measurements of changes of average radiuses of northern and southern hemispheres [9]; in contrast changes of physical fields, for example, streams of heat, currents and circulation at ocean and an atmosphere, etc. The geodynamic mechanism [1] also unequivocally specifies, that the secular trend in global climatic characteristics of the Earth, and also inversion and asymmetric tendencies of change of a climate, in its northern and southern hemispheres in present period should be observed. The mechanism of a warming up of layers of the mantle and cyclic inversion changes of a climate. According to a developed geodynamic model all layers of the mantle at oscillations and motions of the core under action of its gravitational attraction test wide class of inversion deformations [1]. Thus the part of energy of deformations passes in heat by virtue of dissipation properties of the mantle. Than more intensively oscillations of the core, the more amplitudes of these oscillations, the occur the specified thermal transformations more intensively. As relative displacements of the core have cyclic character, because of cyclic influences on the core-mantle system of external celestial bodies also a formation of heat flows and warmed plume materials (substances) will have also cyclic character. In particular orbital perturbations with Milankovitch's periods in 100 kyr, 41 kyr, etc. will be precisely reflected in variations of the specified thermal flows and, accordingly, a planetary climate. In it the essence of occurrence of cycles of congelations on the Earth [2] consists. If during any period of time the core behaves passively, amplitudes of its oscillations are small the thermal flows to a surface of a planet will be decrease. This geodynamic conditions corresponds to the periods of a cold snap. And on the contrary, if the core and mantle interact actively and make significant oscillations the thermal flows to a surface of a planet accrues. This geodynamic state corresponds to the periods of warming. At drift of the core to the north and its oscillations with accrueing amplitude (for example, in present period) submission of heat in the top layers of the mantle will accrue. It is warmly allocated in all layers of the mantle deformed by an attraction of the drifting and oscillating core. Mechanisms of warming. But a base layer is the layer D" ("kitchen of plume-tectonics"). As we know the two mechanisms work for warm redistribution into the Earth. First is a mechanism of convection. In our geodynamical model it has forced nature and is organized and controlled by gravitational action of external celestial bodies and as result has cyclical character. Second mechanism is a plume mechanism which organizes the warmed masses redistributions in higher levels of the mantle, on a bottom of ocean and on a surface of the Earth. In accordance with our geodynamical model mentioned redistribution of warmed mass also has forced character. It is organized and controlled by gravitational action of the external celestial bodies on core-mantle system and also has cyclic nature. Contrast secular warming of Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Earth in present epoch. And warm flows are asymmetrically, more intensively warm is redistributed in northern hemisphere of the Earth and less intensively in a southern hemisphere. From here it follows, that the phenomenon of more intensive warming up of northern hemisphere, rather than southern in present period should be observed. Data of climatic observations (in first temperature trends for various latitude belts). Really, the trend of increase of temperature in northern hemisphere is characterized by greater rate, than a trend of temperature in a southern hemisphere. "A climatic swing". In work [2] it was emphasized, that the climatic changes caused by the mechanism of forced oscillations of the core-mantle system, occur to a wide spectrum of frequencies. In particular annual, monthly and even daily fluctuations of the core will inevitably cause thin, but appreciable, climatic changes with the specified periods and it multiple. Similar sort of a variations, for example, are seen in variations of average atmospheric pressure in northern and southern hemispheres. We shall emphasize, what even in these thin variations of climatic conditions on the Earth also should the phenomenon of inversion and asymmetry in relation to corresponding opposite hemispheres of the Earth, in particular in relation to northern and southern hemispheres is precise be shown. New important confirmations of developed geodynamic model, to theoretical results [2, 3] and told above have been obtained by scientists from the Great Britain, Germany, France and the USA [10]. On ice cores they had been studied changes of a climate in area of Greenland and Antarctica and have been obtained confirmations to the phenomenon of inversion changes of a climate in southern and northern hemispheres of the Earth. There was even a name to this phenomenon - "a climatic swing". As authors of clause have established, sharp downturn of temperature in northern hemisphere during last glacial age (100-15 thousand years ago) was accompanied by simultaneous warming of a climate in a southern hemisphere [10]. Scientists have found out this fact, analyzing isotope structure of sedimentary breeds of Atlantic. The phenomenon of contrast (inversion) tendencies in changes of a climate (secular and cyclic, including with the thousand-year periods and periods of Milankovitch) has been predicted in works [1, 2]. The contrast and opposite directed tendencies in change of a climate should be observed first of all in relation to northern and southern hemispheres of the Earth due to polar character of the core displacements. Thus, the nature of "a climatic swing" when one hemisphere gets warm, and the second is cooled, is connected with cyclic polar oscillations of the core-mantle system of the Earth in a corresponding time scale, in particular in a scale of cycles of Milankovitch. The amplitudes of the swing of the core-mantle system and their changes in the time have an important role and value for style and intensity of warming and cooling. References [1] Barkin Yu.V. (2002) An explanation of endogenous activity of planets and satellites and its cyclisity. Isvestia sekcii nauk o Zemle Rossiiskoi akademii ectestvennykh nauk. Vyp. 9, М., VINITI, pp. 45-97. In Russian. [2] Barkin Yu.V. (2004) Dynamics of the Earth shells and variations of paleoclimate. Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch Anniversary Symposium "Paleoclimate and the Earth climate system" (Belgrade, Serbia, 30 August - 2 September, 2004). Belgrade, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Art, pp. 161-164. [3] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Inversion of periodic and trend variations of climate in opposite hemispheres of the Earth and their mechanism. Proceedings of IUGG XXIV General Assembly, Perugia, Italy 2007: Earth: Our Changing Planet (Perugia, Italy, July 2-13, 2007) (P) - IAPSO, JPS001 "Interannual and Interdecadal Climate Variability", p. 1674. www. iugg2007perugia.it. [4] Barkin Yu.V. (2008) Secular polar drift of the core in present epoch: geodynamical and geophysical consequences and confirmations. General and regional problems of tectonics and geodynamics. Materials of XLI Tectonic Conference. V. 1. -M.:GEOS. p. 55-59. In Russian. [5] Barkin Yu.V. (2009) An explanation of secular variations of a gravity at stations Ny-Alesund, Medicine, Churchill and Syowa. Materials of the International Conference: «Yu.P. Bulashevich's fifth scientific readings. A deep structure. Geodynamics. A thermal field of the Earth. Interpretation of geophysical fields» (Ekaterinburg, 6 - 10 July, 2009). pp. 27-31. In Russian. [6] Barkin Yu.V. (2005) Oscillations of the Earth core, new oceanic tides and dynamical consequences. Materials of XI International Scientific Conference "Structure, geodynamics and mineral genetic processes in lithosphere" (September, 20-22 2005, Syktyvkar, Russia), Publisher of Geology Institute of Komi SC of Ural Section of RAS, Syktyvkar, pp. 26-28. In Russian. [7] Barkin Yu.V. (2009) Prediction and explanation of mean sea levels in northern hemisphere, in southern hemisphere and all ocean of the Earth. EGU General Assembly (Vienna, Austria, 19-24 April 2009). Geophysical Research Abstracts, Volume 11, 2009, abstract # EGU2009-1610. [8] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Forced redistribution of air masses between southern and northern hemispheres of the Earth. Proceedings of IUGG XXIV General Assembly, Perugia, Italy 2007: Earth: Our Changing Planet (Perugia, Italy, July 2-13, 2007), (A)-IAGA, JAS008, p. 326. www. iugg2007perugia.it. [9] Barkin, Yu.V.; Shuanggen J. (2007) On variations of the mean radius of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the Earth. EGU General Assembly (Vienna, Austria, 15-20 April 2007). Geoph. Res. Abs., Vol. 9, 2007, abstract # EGU07-A-08183. [10] Stephen Barker, Paula Diz, Maryline J. Vautravers, Jennifer Pike, Gregor Knorr, Ian R. Hall & Wallace S. Broecker (2009) Interhemispheric Atlantic seesaw response during the last deglaciation. Nature, 457, 1097-1102 (26 February 2009) | doi:10.1038/nature07770.

Trends in mental health inequalities in England during a period of recession, austerity and welfare reform 2004 to 2013.

PubMed

Barr, Ben; Kinderman, Peter; Whitehead, Margaret

2015-12-01

Several indicators of population mental health in the UK have deteriorated since the financial crisis, during a period when a number of welfare reforms and austerity measures have been implemented. We do not know which groups have been most affected by these trends or the extent to which recent economic trends or recent policies have contributed to them. We use data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey to investigate trends in self reported mental health problems by socioeconomic group and employment status in England between 2004 and 2013. We then use panel regression models to investigate the association between local trends in mental health problems and local trends in unemployment and wages to investigate the extent to which these explain increases in mental health problems during this time. We found that the trend in the prevalence of people reporting mental health problems increased significantly more between 2009 and 2013 compared to the previous trends. This increase was greatest amongst people with low levels of education and inequalities widened. The gap in prevalence between low and high educated groups widened by 1.29 percentage points for women (95% CI: 0.50 to 2.08) and 1.36 percentage points for men (95% CI: 0.31 to 2.42) between 2009 and 2013. Trends in unemployment and wages only partly explained these recent increases in mental health problems. The trend in reported mental health problems across England broadly mirrored the pattern of increases in suicides and antidepressant prescribing. Welfare policies and austerity measures implemented since 2010 may have contributed to recent increases in mental health problems and widening inequalities. This has led to rising numbers of people with low levels of education out of work with mental health problems. These trends are likely to increase social exclusion as well as demand for and reliance on social welfare systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Curriculum Resources.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Norma H.

1988-01-01

Discusses an article which presents a concise discussion of secular humanism. Reviews additional materials on censorship from the perspective of the new religious right, the fundamentalists, and public policy and the law. The sources provide background to enhance teaching about secular humanism and textbook censorship. (SLM)

Geomagnetic field models incorporating physical constraints on the secular variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Constable, Catherine; Parker, Robert L.

1993-01-01

This proposal has been concerned with methods for constructing geomagnetic field models that incorporate physical constraints on the secular variation. The principle goal that has been accomplished is the development of flexible algorithms designed to test whether the frozen flux approximation is adequate to describe the available geomagnetic data and their secular variation throughout this century. These have been applied to geomagnetic data from both the early and middle part of this century and convincingly demonstrate that there is no need to invoke violations of the frozen flux hypothesis in order to satisfy the available geomagnetic data.

Formulas for precession. [motion of mean equator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinoshita, H.

1975-01-01

Literal expressions for the precessional motion of the mean equator referred to an arbitrary epoch are constructed. Their numerical representations, based on numerical values recommended at the working meeting of the International Astronomical Union Commission held in Washington in September 1974, are obtained. In constructing the equations of motion, the second-order secular perturbation and the secular perturbation due to the long-periodic terms in the motions of the moon and the sun are taken into account. These perturbations contribute more to the motion of the mean equator than does the term due to the secular perturbation of the orbital eccentricity of the sun.

Asteroid Secular Dynamics: Ceres’ Fingerprint Identified

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novaković, Bojan; Maurel, Clara; Tsirvoulis, Georgios; Knežević, Zoran

2015-07-01

Here we report on the significant role of a so far overlooked dynamical aspect, namely, a secular resonance between the dwarf planet Ceres and other asteroids. We demonstrate that this type of secular resonance can be the dominant dynamical factor in certain regions of the main asteroid belt. Specifically, we performed a dynamical analysis of the asteroids belonging to the (1726) Hoffmeister family. To identify which dynamical mechanisms are actually at work in this part of the main asteroid belt, i.e., to isolate the main perturber(s), we study the evolution of this family in time. The study is accomplished using numerical integrations of test particles performed within different dynamical models. The obtained results reveal that the post-impact evolution of the Hoffmeister asteroid family is a direct consequence of the nodal secular resonance with Ceres. This leads us to the conclusion that similar effects must exist in other parts of the asteroid belt. In this respect, the obtained results shed light on an important and entirely new aspect of the long-term dynamics of small bodies. Ceres’ fingerprint in asteroid dynamics, expressed through the discovered secular resonance effect, completely changes our understanding of the way in which perturbations by Ceres-like objects affect the orbits of nearby bodies.

Secular and religious: the intrinsic doubleness of analytical psychology and the hegemony of naturalism in the social sciences.

PubMed

Main, Roderick

2013-06-01

In recent years a number of prominent social theorists, including Jürgen Habermas and Charles Taylor, have voiced concern about the hegemony of naturalistic, secular assumptions in the social sciences, and in their different ways have sought to address this by establishing greater parity between secular and religious perspectives. This paper suggests that C.G. Jung's analytical psychology, which hitherto has been largely ignored by social theory, may have something to contribute on this issue as it can be understood coherently both empirically, without reference to transcendent reality, and metaphysically, with reference to transcendent reality. It is argued that, despite his denials of any metaphysical intent, Jung does in fact engage in metaphysics and that together the empirical and metaphysical vectors of his thought result in a rich and distinctive double perspective. This dual secular and religious perspective can be seen as part of Jung's own critique of the hegemony of naturalism and secularism, which for Jung has profound social as well as clinical relevance. The concern and approach that Habermas and Taylor share with Jung on this issue may provide some grounds for increased dialogue between analytical psychology and the social sciences. © 2013, The Society of Analytical Psychology.

Comment on 'Can infrared gravitons screen {lambda}?'

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsamis, N. C.; Woodard, R. P.; Department of Physics, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611

2008-07-15

We reply to the recent criticism by Garriga and Tanaka of our proposal that quantum gravitational loop corrections may lead to a secular screening of the effective cosmological constant. Their argument rests upon a renormalization scheme in which the composite operator (R{radical}(-g)-4{lambda}{radical}(-g)){sub ren} is defined to be the trace of the renormalized field equations. Although this is a peculiar prescription, we show that it does not preclude secular screening. Moreover, we show that a constant Ricci scalar does not even classically imply a constant expansion rate. Other important points are: (1) the quantity R{sub ren} of Garriga and Tanaka ismore » neither a properly defined composite operator, nor is it constant; (2) gauge dependence does not render a Green's function devoid of physical content; (3) scalar models on a nondynamical de Sitter background (for which there is no gauge issue) can induce arbitrarily large secular contributions to the stress tensor; (4) the same secular corrections appear in observable quantities in quantum gravity; and (5) the prospects seem good for deriving a simple stochastic formulation of quantum gravity in which the leading secular effects can be summed and for which the expectation values of even complicated, gauge invariant operators can be computed at leading order.« less

Long-term effect of fee-for-service-based reimbursement cuts on processes and outcomes of care for stroke: interrupted time-series study from Taiwan.

PubMed

Tung, Yu-Chi; Chang, Guann-Ming; Cheng, Shou-Hsia

2015-01-01

As healthcare spending continues to increase, reimbursement cuts have become 1 type of healthcare reform to contain costs. Little is known about the long-term impact of cuts in reimbursement, especially under a global budget cap with fee-for-service (FFS) reimbursement, on processes and outcomes of care. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts have been implemented since July 2002 in Taiwan. We examined the long-term association of FFS-based reimbursement cuts with trends in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. We analyzed all 411,487 patients with stroke admitted to general acute care hospitals in Taiwan during the period 1997 to 2010 through Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. We used a quasi-experimental design with quarterly measures of healthcare utilization and outcomes and used segmented autoregressive integrated moving average models for the analysis. After accounting for secular trends and other confounders, the implementation of the FFS-based reimbursement cuts was associated with trend changes in computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging scanning (0.31% per quarter; P=0.013), antiplatelet/anticoagulant use (-0.20% per quarter; P<0.001), statin use (0.18% per quarter; P=0.027), physiotherapy/occupational therapy assessment (0.25% per quarter; P<0.001), and 30-day mortality (0.06% per quarter; P<0.001). There are improvement trends in processes and outcomes of care over time. However, the reimbursement cuts from the FFS-based global budget cap are associated with trend changes in processes and outcomes of care for stroke. The FFS-based reimbursement cuts may have long-term positive and negative associations with stroke care. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in Russia and Germany from 1980 to 2007 - are there migration effects?

PubMed

Deckert, Andreas; Winkler, Volker; Paltiel, Ari; Razum, Oliver; Becher, Heiko

2010-08-17

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the industrialized world. Large variations in CVD mortality between countries and also between population subgroups within countries have been observed. Previous studies showed significantly lower risks in German repatriates and Jews emigrating from Russia than in the general Russian population. We examined to what degree the migration of large subgroups influenced national CVD mortality rates. We used WHO data to map the CVD mortality distribution in Europe in 2005. Supplemented by data of the Statistisches Bundesamt, the mortality trends in three major CVD groups between 1980 and 2007 in Russia and Germany are displayed, as well as demographic information. The effects of migration on demography were estimated and percentage changes in CVD mortality trends were calculated under the assumption that migration had not occurred. Cardiovascular disease mortality patterns within Europe showed a strong west-east gradient with ratios up to sixfold. In Germany, the CVD mortality levels were low and steadily decreasing, whereas in Russia they fluctuated at high levels with substantial differences between the sexes and strong correlations with political changes and health campaigns. The trends in both Russia and Germany were affected by the migration that occurred in both countries over recent decades. However, our restricted focus in only adjusting for the migration of German repatriates and Jews had moderate effects on the national CVD mortality statistics in Germany (+1.0%) and Russia (-0.6%). The effects on CVD mortality rates due to migration in Germany and Russia were smaller than those due to secular economical changes. However, migration should still be considered as a factor influencing national mortality trends.

Predicting Precession Rates from Secular Dynamics for Extra-solar Multi-planet Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Laerhoven, Christa L.

2015-11-01

Considering the secular dynamics of multi-planet systems provides substantial insight into the interactions between planets in those systems. Secular interactions are those that don't involve knowing where a planet is along its orbit, and they dominate when planets are not involved in mean motion resonances. These interactions exchange angular momentum among the planets, evolving their eccentricities and inclinations. To second order in the planets' eccentricities and inclinations, the eccentricity and inclination perturbations are decoupled. Given the right variable choice, the relevant differential equations are linear and thus the eccentricity and inclination behaviors can be described as a sum of eigenmodes. Since the underlying structure of the secular eigenmodes can be calculated using only the planets' masses and semi-major axes, one can elucidate the eccentricity and inclination behavior of planets in exoplanet systems even without knowing the planets' current eccentricities and inclinations. I have calculated both the eccentricity and inclination secular eigenmodes for the population of known multi-planet systems whose planets have well determined masses and periods. Using this catalog, and assuming a Gausian distribution for the eigenmode amplitudes and a uniform distribution for the eigenmode phases, I have predicted what range of precession rates the planets may have. Generally, planets that have more than one eigenmode significantly contribute to their eccentricity ('groupies') can have a wide range of possible precession rates, while planets that are 'loners' have a narrow range of possible precession rates. One might have assumed that in any given system, the planets with shorter periods would have faster precession rates. However, I show that in systems where the planets suffer strong secular interactions this is not necessarily the case.

Geodetic estimates of fault slip rates in the San Francisco Bay area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.; Prescott, W.H.

1999-01-01

Bourne et al. [1998] have suggested that the interseismic velocity profile at the surface across a transform plate boundary is a replica of the secular velocity profile at depth in the plastosphere. On the other hand, in the viscoelastic coupling model the shape of the interseismic surface velocity profile is a consequence of plastosphere relaxation following the previous rupture of the faults that make up the plate boundary and is not directly related to the secular flow in the plastosphere. The two models appear to be incompatible. If the plate boundary is composed of several subparallel faults and the interseismic surface velocity profile across the boundary known, each model predicts the secular slip rates on the faults which make up the boundary. As suggested by Bourne et al., the models can then be tested by comparing the predicted secular slip rates to those estimated from long-term offsets inferred from geology. Here we apply that test to the secular slip rates predicted for the principal faults (San Andreas, San Gregorio, Hayward, Calaveras, Rodgers Creek, Green Valley and Greenville faults) in the San Andreas fault system in the San Francisco Bay area. The estimates from the two models generally agree with one another and to a lesser extent with the geologic estimate. Because the viscoelastic coupling model has been equally successful in estimating secular slip rates on the various fault strands at a diffuse plate boundary, the success of the model of Bourne et al. [1998] in doing the same thing should not be taken as proof that the interseismic velocity profile across the plate boundary at the surface is a replica of the velocity profile at depth in the plastosphere.

Distinguishing Error from Chaos in Ecological Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugihara, George; Grenfell, Bryan; May, Robert M.

1990-11-01

Over the years, there has been much discussion about the relative importance of environmental and biological factors in regulating natural populations. Often it is thought that environmental factors are associated with stochastic fluctuations in population density, and biological ones with deterministic regulation. We revisit these ideas in the light of recent work on chaos and nonlinear systems. We show that completely deterministic regulatory factors can lead to apparently random fluctuations in population density, and we then develop a new method (that can be applied to limited data sets) to make practical distinctions between apparently noisy dynamics produced by low-dimensional chaos and population variation that in fact derives from random (high-dimensional)noise, such as environmental stochasticity or sampling error. To show its practical use, the method is first applied to models where the dynamics are known. We then apply the method to several sets of real data, including newly analysed data on the incidence of measles in the United Kingdom. Here the additional problems of secular trends and spatial effects are explored. In particular, we find that on a city-by-city scale measles exhibits low-dimensional chaos (as has previously been found for measles in New York City), whereas on a larger, country-wide scale the dynamics appear as a noisy two-year cycle. In addition to shedding light on the basic dynamics of some nonlinear biological systems, this work dramatizes how the scale on which data is collected and analysed can affect the conclusions drawn.

Religion, Education and the Post-Secular Child

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Robert A.

2014-01-01

This essay endeavours to reframe current discussion of the relationship of religion to education by highlighting an often seriously neglected element of contemporary educational thought: the changing, post-secular understanding of childhood in the globalised age. Drawing upon recent ethnographies of childhood, and an older anthropological…

Main field and secular variation modeling with Defense Meteorological Satellite Program magnetic measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alken, P.; Olsen, N.; Finlay, C. C.; Chulliat, A.

2017-12-01

In order to investigate the spatial structure and development of rapid (sub-decadal) changes in the geomagnetic core field, including its secular variation and acceleration, global magnetic measurements from space play a crucial role. With the end of the CHAMP mission in September 2010, there has been a gap in high-quality satellite magnetic field measurements until the Swarm mission was launched in November 2013. Geomagnetic main field models during this period have relied on the global ground observatory network which, due to its sparse spatial configuration, has difficulty in resolving secular variation and acceleration at higher spherical harmonic degrees. In this presentation we will show new results in building main field models during this "gap period", based on vector magnetic measurements from four Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. While the fluxgate instruments onboard DMSP were not designed for high-quality core field modeling, we find that the DMSP dataset can provide valuable information on secular variation and acceleration during the gap period.

Trends in live birth rates and adverse neonatal outcomes among HIV-positive women in Ontario, Canada, 2002-2009: a descriptive population-based study.

PubMed

Antoniou, Tony; Zagorski, Brandon; Macdonald, Erin M; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Raboud, Janet; Brophy, Jason; Masinde, Khatundi-Irene; Tharao, Wangari E; Yudin, Mark H; Ng, Ryan; Loutfy, Mona R; Glazier, Richard H

2014-11-01

To characterise trends in live birth rates, adverse neonatal outcomes and socio-demographic characteristics of pregnant women with diagnosed HIV between the ages of 18 and 49 in Ontario, Canada from 1 April 2002 to 31 March 2010, we conducted a population-based study. Utilising linked administrative healthcare databases we used generalised estimating equations to characterise secular trends and examine the association between live births and socio-demographic characteristics, including age, region of birth and neighbourhood income quintile. Between 2002/2003 and 2009/2010, there were 551 live births during 15,610 person-years of follow-up. The proportion of HIV-positive mothers originally from Africa or the Caribbean increased from 26.7% to 51.6% over the study period. The risk of pre-term (risk ratio 2.13, 95% confidence interval 1.74 to 2.61) and small for gestational age births (risk ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.94) was higher in women with HIV compared with provincial estimates for these outcomes. Women with HIV have rates of pre-term and small for gestational age births that exceed provincial estimates for these outcomes. Further research is required to identify factors mediating these disparities that are amenable to pre-natal risk reduction initiatives. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

[Secular variation of births, weight and length at birth: Local perspective].

PubMed

Amigo, Hugo; Bustos, Patricia; Vargas, Claudio; Iglesias, Pablo

2015-01-01

To analyse the outcomes of births and anthropometric measurements at birth of children born between 1974 and 2011 at Limache Hospital (Valparaíso, Chile). Times series were constructed of births, weight and length at birth, and low weight and length at birth. The trend was modelled with linear and logistical regressions using splines to represent breaks in the trend by decade. The series includes 17,574 births. There was an increase in births per year in the 1970s (30/year) and declines in them to 17 and 22 births/year in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively (P<.001), with no significant trend thereafter. Newborns from 2000 to 2011 weighed 266 grams more than those in the 1970s (P<.001), and have now reached a mean weight of 3,530 g. Low birthweight fell from 8% in the 1970s to 1.1% after 2000. Birth length increased by 1cm in the 37 years studied, with a reduction of low birth length from 7.6% to 2.1% during the period. Live births in the Limache Hospital declined, and anthropometric measurements at birth improved in the years analysed. This information is useful in developing interventions, taking into account the possible selection biases that could distort these estimates and their interpretation. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Chilena de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Secular trends of physical growth and abdominal adiposity of school children and adolescents living at a moderate altitude in Peru.

PubMed

Cossio-Bolaños, Marco; de Arruda, Miguel; Andruske, Cynthia Lee; Luarte-Rocha, Cristian; Gómez-Campos, Rossana

2017-02-01

Identify changes in physical growth and abdominal adiposity at an interval of 14 years in children and adolescents living at a moderate altitude in Peru. The data comes from two cross-sectional studies carried out in the city of Arequipa, Peru, located at a moderate altitude of 2,320 meters. In 2001, 473 males and 482 females were assessed, and in 2015, 432 males and 403 females between 6.0 and 12.9 years old were evaluated. Data were collected in public state schools and measured using the anthropometric variables for weight, height, and waist circumference. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated according to age and sex. Positive trends for weight were identified for both males and females at all ages (p < .001). For height, significant increases were observed in males for all ages. No significant increases (p > .05) occurred in height for females between the ages of 6 and 8 years. However, commencing at age 9 until 12 years, females showed positive and significant increases (p < .001) in height. In 2015, BMI and waist circumference increased significantly for both sexes at all ages. Between 2001 and 2015, positive trends in physical growth and abdominal adiposity were identified for children and adolescents living in Arequipa, Peru. These changes may be associated with the rapid economic development in the country. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The effect of geocenter motion on Jason-2 orbits and the mean sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melachroinos, S. A.; Lemoine, F. G.; Zelensky, N. P.; Rowlands, D. D.; Luthcke, S. B.; Bordyugov, O.

2013-04-01

We compute a series of Jason-2 GPS and SLR/DORIS-based orbits using ITRF2005 and the std0905 standards (Lemoine et al., 2010). Our GPS and SLR/DORIS orbit data sets span a period of 2 years from cycle 3 (July 2008) to cycle 74 (July 2010). We extract the Jason-2 orbit frame translational parameters per cycle by the means of a Helmert transformation between a set of reference orbits and a set of test orbits. We compare the annual terms of these time-series to the annual terms of two different geocenter motion models where biases and trends have been removed. Subsequently, we include the annual terms of the modeled geocenter motion as a degree-1 loading displacement correction to the GPS and SLR/DORIS tracking network of the POD process. Although the annual geocenter motion correction would reflect a stationary signal in time, under ideal conditions, the whole geocenter motion is a non-stationary process that includes secular trends. Our results suggest that our GSFC Jason-2 GPS-based orbits are closely tied to the center of mass (CM) of the Earth consistent with our current force modeling, whereas GSFC's SLR/DORIS-based orbits are tied to the origin of ITRF2005, which is the center of figure (CF) for sub-secular scales. We quantify the GPS and SLR/DORIS orbit centering and how this impacts the orbit radial error over the globe, which is assimilated into mean sea level (MSL) error, from the omission of the annual term of the geocenter correction. We find that for the SLR/DORIS std0905 orbits, currently used by the oceanographic community, only the negligence of the annual term of the geocenter motion correction results in a - 4.67 ± 3.40 mm error in the Z-component of the orbit frame which creates 1.06 ± 2.66 mm of systematic error in the MSL estimates, mainly due to the uneven distribution of the oceans between the North and South hemisphere.

An analysis of sickness absence in chronically ill patients receiving Complementary and Alternative Medicine: A longterm prospective intermittent study

PubMed Central

Moebus, Susanne; Lehmann, Nils; Bödeker, Wolfgang; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz

2006-01-01

Background The popularity of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) has led to a growing amount of research in this area. All the same little is known about the effects of these special treatments in every-day practice of primary care, delivered by general practitioners within the health insurance system. From 1994 to 2000 more than 20 German Company health insurances initiated the first model project on CAM according to the German social law. Aim of this contribution is to investigate the effectiveness of multi-modal CAM on chronic diseases within primary health care. Methods A long-term prospective intermittent study was conducted including 44 CAM practitioners and 1221 self-selected chronically ill patients (64% women) of whom 441 were employed. Main outcome measure is sick-leave, controlled for secular trends and regression-to-the mean and self-perceived health status. Results Sick-leave per year of 441 patients at work increased from 22 (SD ± 45.2) to 31 (± 61.0) days within three years prior to intervention, and decreased to 24 (± 55.6) in the second year of treatment, sustaining at this level in the following two years. Detailed statistical analysis show that this development exceeds secular trends and the regression-toward-the-mean effect. Sick-leave reduction was corroborated by data on self-reported improvement of patients' health status. Conclusion Results of this longterm observational study show a reduction of sick leave in chronically ill patients after a complex multimodal CAM intervention. However, as this is an uncontrolled observational study efficacy of any specific CAM treatment can not be proven. The results might indicate an general effectiveness of CAM in primary care, worthwhile further investigations. Future studies should identify the most suitable patients for CAM practices, the most appropriate and safe treatments, provide information on the magnitude of the effects to facilitate subsequent definitive randomised controlled studies that will help to position complementary and alternative medicine in health care. PMID:16472403

School-Based Obesity-Prevention Policies and Practices and Weight-Control Behaviors among Adolescents.

PubMed

Larson, Nicole; Davey, Cynthia S; Caspi, Caitlin E; Kubik, Martha Y; Nanney, Marilyn S

2017-02-01

The promotion of healthy eating and physical activity within school settings is an important component of population-based strategies to prevent obesity; however, adolescents may be vulnerable to weight-related messages, as rapid development during this life stage often leads to preoccupation with body size and shape. This study examines secular trends in secondary school curricula topics relevant to the prevention of unhealthy weight-control behaviors; describes cross-sectional associations between weight-related curricula content and students' use of weight-control behaviors; and assesses whether implementation of school-based obesity-prevention policies/practices is longitudinally related to students' weight-control behaviors. The Minnesota School Health Profiles and Minnesota Student Survey (grades 9 and 12) data were used along with National Center for Education Statistics data to examine secular trends, cross-sectional associations (n=141 schools), and longitudinal associations (n=42 schools). Students self-reported their height and weight along with past-year use of healthy (eg, exercise), unhealthy (eg, fasting), and extreme (eg, use laxatives) weight-control behaviors. Descriptive statistics, generalized estimating equations, and generalized linear regression models accounting for school-level demographics. There was no observable pattern during the years 2008 to 2014 in the mean number of curricula topics addressing unhealthy weight-control behaviors, despite an increase in the prevalence of curricula addressing acceptance of body-size differences. Including three vs fewer weight-control topics and specifically including the topic of eating disorders in the curricula was related to a lower school-level percent of students using any extreme weight-control behaviors. In contrast, an overall measure of implementing school-based obesity-prevention policies/practices (eg, prohibited advertising) was unrelated to use of unhealthy or extreme behaviors. Results suggest obesity-prevention policies/practices do not have unintended consequences for student weight-control behaviors and support the importance of school-based health education as part of efforts to prevent unhealthy behaviors. Copyright © 2017 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Geocenter Motion on Jason-2 Orbits and the Mean Sea Level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melachroinos, S. A.; Lemoine, F. G.; Zelensky, N. P.; Rowlands, D. D.; Luthcke, S. B.; Bordyugov, O.

2012-01-01

We compute a series of Jason-2 GPS and SLR/DORIS-based orbits using ITRF2005 and the std0905 standards (Lemoine et al. 2010). Our GPS and SLR/DORIS orbit data sets span a period of 2 years from cycle 3 (July 2008) to cycle 74 (July 2010). We extract the Jason-2 orbit frame translational parameters per cycle by the means of a Helmert transformation between a set of reference orbits and a set of test orbits. We compare the annual terms of these time-series to the annual terms of two different geocenter motion models where biases and trends have been removed. Subsequently, we include the annual terms of the modeled geocenter motion as a degree-1 loading displacement correction to the GPS and SLR/DORIS tracking network of the POD process. Although the annual geocenter motion correction would reflect a stationary signal in time, under ideal conditions, the whole geocenter motion is a non-stationary process that includes secular trends. Our results suggest that our GSFC Jason-2 GPS-based orbits are closely tied to the center of mass (CM) of the Earth consistent with our current force modeling, whereas GSFC's SLR/DORIS-based orbits are tied to the origin of ITRF2005, which is the center of figure (CF) for sub-secular scales. We quantify the GPS and SLR/DORIS orbit centering and how this impacts the orbit radial error over the globe, which is assimilated into mean sea level (MSL) error, from the omission of the annual term of the geocenter correction. We find that for the SLR/DORIS std0905 orbits, currently used by the oceanographic community, only the negligence of the annual term of the geocenter motion correction results in a 4.67 plus or minus 3.40 mm error in the Z-component of the orbit frame which creates 1.06 plus or minus 2.66 mm of systematic error in the MSL estimates, mainly due to the uneven distribution of the oceans between the North and South hemisphere.

School-based obesity prevention policies and practices and weight-control behaviors among adolescents

PubMed Central

Davey, Cynthia S.; Caspi, Caitlin E.; Kubik, Martha Y.; Nanney, Marilyn S.

2016-01-01

Background The promotion of healthy eating and physical activity within school settings is an important component of population-based strategies to prevent obesity; however, adolescents may be vulnerable to weight-related messages as rapid development during this lifestage often leads to preoccupation with body size and shape. Objective This study (1) examines secular trends in secondary school curricula topics relevant to the prevention of unhealthy weight-control behaviors; (2) describes cross-sectional associations between weight-related curricula content and students’ use of weight-control behaviors; and (3) assesses whether implementation of school-based obesity prevention policies/practices are longitudinally related to students’ weight-control behaviors. Design/participants The Minnesota School Health Profiles and Minnesota Student Survey (grades 9 and 12) data were used along with National Center for Education Statistics data to examine secular trends; cross-sectional associations (n=141 schools); and longitudinal associations (n=42 schools). Main Outcome Measures Students self-reported their height and weight along with past-year use of healthy (e.g., exercise), unhealthy (e.g., fasting), and extreme (e.g., use laxatives) weight-control behaviors. Statistical analyses performed Descriptive statistics, generalized estimating equations, and generalized linear regression models accounting for school-level demographics. Results There was no observable pattern over the years 2008 to 2014 in the mean number of curricula topics addressing unhealthy weight-control behaviors despite an increase in the prevalence of curricula addressing acceptance of body size differences. Including three versus fewer weight-control topics and specifically including the topic of eating disorders in the curricula were related to a lower school-level percent of students using any extreme weight-control behaviors. In contrast, an overall measure of implementing school-based obesity prevention policies/practices (e.g., prohibited advertising) was unrelated to use of unhealthy or extreme behaviors. Conclusions Results suggest obesity prevention policies/practices do not have unintended consequences for student weight-control behaviors and support the importance of school-based health education as part of efforts to prevent unhealthy behaviors. PMID:27889315

The contribution of international health volunteers to the health workforce in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Laleman, Geert; Kegels, Guy; Marchal, Bruno; Van der Roost, Dirk; Bogaert, Isa; Van Damme, Wim

2007-01-01

Background In this paper, we aim to quantify the contribution of international health volunteers to the health workforce in sub-Saharan Africa and to explore the perceptions of health service managers regarding these volunteers. Methods Rapid survey among organizations sending international health volunteers and group discussions with experienced medical officers from sub-Saharan African countries. Results We contacted 13 volunteer organizations having more than 10 full-time equivalent international health volunteers in sub-Saharan Africa and estimated that they employed together 2072 full-time equivalent international health volunteers in 2005. The numbers sent by secular non-governmental organizations (NGOs) is growing, while the number sent by development NGOs, including faith-based organizations, is mostly decreasing. The cost is estimated at between US$36 000 and US$50 000 per expatriate volunteer per year. There are trends towards more employment of international health volunteers from low-income countries and of national medical staff. Country experts express more negative views about international health volunteers than positive ones. They see them as increasingly paradoxical in view of the existence of urban unemployed doctors and nurses in most countries. Creating conditions for employment and training of national staff is strongly favoured as an alternative. Only in exceptional circumstances is sending international health volunteers viewed as a defendable temporary measure. Conclusion We estimate that not more than 5000 full-time equivalent international health volunteers were working in sub-Saharan Africa in 2005, of which not more than 1500 were doctors. A distinction should be made between (1) secular medical humanitarian NGOs, (2)development NGOs, and (3) volunteer organizations, as Voluntary Service Overseas (VSO) and United Nations volunteers (UNV). They have different views, undergo different trends and are differently appreciated by government officials. International health volunteers contribute relatively small numbers to the health workforce in sub-Saharan Africa, and it seems unlikely that they will do more in the future. In areas where they play a role, their contribution to service delivery is sometimes very significant. PMID:17672889

Transient climate simulation from the Maunder Minimum to present day using prescribed changes in GHG, total/spectral solar irradiance and ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangehl, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich; Schimanke, Semjon

A fully coupled AO-GCM including representation of the middle atmosphere is used for tran-sient simulation of climate from 1630 to 2000 AD. For better representation of changes in the UV/visible part of the solar spectrum an improved short-wave radiation scheme is implemented. The model is driven by changes in GHG concentrations, solar activity and volcanic eruptions. Solar variability is introduced via changes in total/spectral solar irradiance (TSI/SSI) and pre-scribed changes in stratospheric ozone. The secular trend in TSI is in the range of 0.1 percent increase from Maunder Minimum to present-day. Volcanic eruptions are represented via abrupt reduction in TSI. With the applied forcings the model does not simulate a clear reduction of the annual Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean near surface temperature during Maunder Minimum. By contrast the Dalton Minimum is characterized by distinct cooling and there is a significant raise of NH mean near surface temperature until the end of the 20th century. Focusing on the North Atlantic/European region the winter mean near surface temperature change pat-tern from Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) to present-day (1960-1990) reveals maximum warming over north-eastern Europe and cooling over the western North Atlantic with maxi-mum cooling west of Greenland. These changes can partly be explained by a shift of the NAO towards a more positive phase. The simulated changes in tropospheric circulation are discussed with special emphasize on the role of the solar forcing. Besides the stratospheric solar forcing which may affect NAO variability via downward propagation of the solar signal from the strato-sphere to the troposphere the magnitude of the secular trend in TSI might play a role. For the period from Maunder Minimum to present-day the simulation shows less near surface temper-ature increase especially over arctic regions when compared to simulations performed with the same model including the standard radiation scheme but applying larger TSI variations. The associated changes in lower tropospheric baroclinicity are more favourable for synoptic scale wave activity over the North Atlantic and might thereby contribute to strengthening of the NAO.

Gods, Germs, and Petri Dishes: Toward a Nonsecular Medical Anthropology.

PubMed

Roberts, Elizabeth F S

2016-01-01

This commentary calls on medical anthropology to become programmatically non-secular. Despite recent anthropological critiques of secularity, within and outside of anthropology, most contemporary medical anthropologists continue to leave deities and religiosity out of their examinations of healing practices, especially in their accounts of biomedicine. Through a critical, relational constructionist lens, which traces how all entities are both constructed and real, a non-secular medical anthropology would insist that when deities are part of medical practice, they are integral to analysis. Importantly then, within the symmetrical nature of this same constructionist lens, biomedical entities like germs and petri dishes need to be accounted for just as much as deities.

Conflicts between conservative Christian institutions and secular groups in sub-Saharan Africa: Ideological discourses on sexualities, reproduction, and HIV/AIDS

PubMed Central

Mantell, Joanne E.; Correale, Jacqueline; Adams-Skinner, Jessica; Stein, Zena A.

2011-01-01

Religious and secular institutions advocate strategies that represent all points on the continuum to reduce the spread of HIV/AIDS. Drawing on an extensive literature review of studies conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, we focus on those secular institutions that support all effective methods of reducing HIV/AIDS transmission and those conservative religious institutions that support a limited set of prevention methods. We conclude by identifying topics for dialogue between these viewpoints that should facilitate cooperation by expanding the generally acceptable HIV/AIDS prevention methods, and especially the use of condoms. PMID:21834733