Cheater or Collaborator?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jakes, David

2009-01-01

As more social technologies and processes enter the classroom, new questions arise about how these tools and processes serve teaching and learning. Many have the potential to create dynamic learning environments. They also have the potential to cause distraction. In this article, the author describes one scenario that relates only to the social…

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.

Secondary Students' Dynamic Modeling Processes: Analyzing, Reasoning About, Synthesizing, and Testing Models of Stream Ecosystems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratford, Steven J.; Krajeik, Joseph; Soloway, Elliot

This paper presents the results of a study of the cognitive strategies in which ninth-grade science students engaged as they used a learner-centered dynamic modeling tool (called Model-It) to make original models based upon stream ecosystem scenarios. The research questions were: (1) In what Cognitive Strategies for Modeling (analyzing, reasoning,…

Understanding the Dynamics of Socio-Hydrological Environment: a Conceptual Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woyessa, Y.; Welderufael, W.; Edossa, D.

2011-12-01

Human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threaten to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the change of ecosystems under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting land-use changes. Recently the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. A conceptual framework is being developed which integrates climate change scenarios and the human dimension of land use decision into a hydrological model in order to assess its impacts on the socio-hydrological dynamics of a river basin. The following figures present the framework for the analysis and modelling of the socio-hydrological dynamics. Keywords: climate change, land use, river basin

Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

2014-11-01

An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

PubMed Central

Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel’s Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species’ available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to ‘errors’ (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario. PMID:29621330

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Troupin, David; Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

Army Sustainability Modelling Analysis and Reporting Tool Phase 1: User Manual and Results Interpretation Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-11-01

force structure liability analysis tool, designed to forecast the dynamics of personnel and equipment populations over time for a particular scenario...it is intended that it will support analysis of the sustainability of planned Army force structures against a range of possible scenarios, as well as...the force options testing process. A-SMART Phase 1 has been limited to the development of personnel, major equipment and supplies/strategic lift

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balshi, M. S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Duffy, P.; Flannigan, M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, J.

2009-01-01

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO2fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO2 fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post-fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.

Rethinking climate change adaptation and place through a situated pathways framework: A case study from the Big Hole Valley, USA

Treesearch

Daniel J. Murphy; Laurie Yung; Carina Wyborn; Daniel R. Williams

2017-01-01

This paper critically examines the temporal and spatial dynamics of adaptation in climate change science and explores how dynamic notions of 'place' elucidate novel ways of understanding community vulnerability and adaptation. Using data gathered from a narrative scenario-building process carried out among communities of the Big Hole Valley in Montana, the...

ADAPT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reynolds, John; Jankovsky, Zachary; Metzroth, Kyle G

2018-04-04

The purpose of the ADAPT code is to generate Dynamic Event Trees (DET) using a user specified set of simulators. ADAPT can utilize any simulation tool which meets a minimal set of requirements. ADAPT is based on the concept of DET which uses explicit modeling of the deterministic dynamic processes that take place during a nuclear reactor plant system (or other complex system) evolution along with stochastic modeling. When DET are used to model various aspects of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), all accident progression scenarios starting from an initiating event are considered simultaneously. The DET branching occurs at user specifiedmore » times and/or when an action is required by the system and/or the operator. These outcomes then decide how the dynamic system variables will evolve in time for each DET branch. Since two different outcomes at a DET branching may lead to completely different paths for system evolution, the next branching for these paths may occur not only at separate times, but can be based on different branching criteria. The computational infrastructure allows for flexibility in ADAPT to link with different system simulation codes, parallel processing of the scenarios under consideration, on-line scenario management (initiation as well as termination), analysis of results, and user friendly graphical capabilities. The ADAPT system is designed for a distributed computing environment; the scheduler can track multiple concurrent branches simultaneously. The scheduler is modularized so that the DET branching strategy can be modified (e.g. biasing towards the worst-case scenario/event). Independent database systems store data from the simulation tasks and the DET structure so that the event tree can be constructed and analyzed later. ADAPT is provided with a user-friendly client which can easily sort through and display the results of an experiment, precluding the need for the user to manually inspect individual simulator runs.« less

A nonlinear dynamical system for combustion instability in a pulse model combustor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, Kazushi; Gotoda, Hiroshi

2016-11-01

We theoretically and numerically study the bifurcation phenomena of nonlinear dynamical system describing combustion instability in a pulse model combustor on the basis of dynamical system theory and complex network theory. The dynamical behavior of pressure fluctuations undergoes a significant transition from steady-state to deterministic chaos via the period-doubling cascade process known as Feigenbaum scenario with decreasing the characteristic flow time. Recurrence plots and recurrence networks analysis we adopted in this study can quantify the significant changes in dynamic behavior of combustion instability that cannot be captured in the bifurcation diagram.

The response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire in California to future climate scenarios simulated by the MC1 dynamic vegetation dynamic.

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Raymond Drapek; Ronald P. Neilson

2006-01-01

The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change for California using the MAPSS-CENTURY (MCI) dynamic general vegetation model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined with increased growing season length and warmth, and increases in...

Division H Commission 33: Structure & Dynamics of the Galactic System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordström, Birgitta; Bland-Hawthorn, Joss; Wyse, Rosemary; Athanassoula, Lia; Feltzing, Sofia; Jog, Chanda; Lockman, Jay; Minniti, Dante; Robin, Annie

2016-04-01

Research on the structure and dynamics of the Galactic System covers a large field of research, from formation scenarios to long-term evolution and secular processes. Today we speak of near-field cosmology where the oldest parts of the Galaxy are used to probe back to early times, e.g. studying the chemical signatures of the oldest star clusters and dwarf galaxies to learn about the byproducts of the first stars. Some of the most detailed work relates to the structure of the dark matter and baryons in order to compare with expectation from N-body models. Secular processes have been identified (e.g. stellar migration) where material within the Galaxy is being reorganized by dynamical resonances and feedback processes.

[Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].

PubMed

Jiang, Oun-ou; Deng, Xiang-zheng; Ke, Xin-li; Zhao, Chun-hong; Zhang, Wei

2014-12-01

The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.

Dynamic performance analysis of permanent magnet contactor with a flux-weakening control strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianbing; Lin, Heyun; Fang, Shuhua; Jin, Ping; Wang, Junhua; Ho, S. L.

2011-04-01

A new flux-weakening control strategy for permanent magnet contactors is proposed. By matching the dynamic attraction force and the antiforce, the terminal velocity and collision energy of the movable iron in the closing process are significantly reduced. The movable iron displacement is estimated by detecting the closing voltage and current with the proposed control. A dynamic mathematical model is also established under four kinds of excitation scenarios. The attraction force and flux linkage are predicted by finite element method and the dynamics of the closing process is simulated using the 4th-order Runge-Kutta algorithm. Experiments are carried out on a 250A prototype with an intelligent control unit to verify the proposed control strategy.

SWCD: a sliding window and self-regulated learning-based background updating method for change detection in videos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Işık, Şahin; Özkan, Kemal; Günal, Serkan; Gerek, Ömer Nezih

2018-03-01

Change detection with background subtraction process remains to be an unresolved issue and attracts research interest due to challenges encountered on static and dynamic scenes. The key challenge is about how to update dynamically changing backgrounds from frames with an adaptive and self-regulated feedback mechanism. In order to achieve this, we present an effective change detection algorithm for pixelwise changes. A sliding window approach combined with dynamic control of update parameters is introduced for updating background frames, which we called sliding window-based change detection. Comprehensive experiments on related test videos show that the integrated algorithm yields good objective and subjective performance by overcoming illumination variations, camera jitters, and intermittent object motions. It is argued that the obtained method makes a fair alternative in most types of foreground extraction scenarios; unlike case-specific methods, which normally fail for their nonconsidered scenarios.

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Frid, Leonardo; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.

Coexistence and survival in conservative Lotka-Volterra networks.

PubMed

Knebel, Johannes; Krüger, Torben; Weber, Markus F; Frey, Erwin

2013-04-19

Analyzing coexistence and survival scenarios of Lotka-Volterra (LV) networks in which the total biomass is conserved is of vital importance for the characterization of long-term dynamics of ecological communities. Here, we introduce a classification scheme for coexistence scenarios in these conservative LV models and quantify the extinction process by employing the Pfaffian of the network's interaction matrix. We illustrate our findings on global stability properties for general systems of four and five species and find a generalized scaling law for the extinction time.

Coexistence and Survival in Conservative Lotka-Volterra Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knebel, Johannes; Krüger, Torben; Weber, Markus F.; Frey, Erwin

2013-04-01

Analyzing coexistence and survival scenarios of Lotka-Volterra (LV) networks in which the total biomass is conserved is of vital importance for the characterization of long-term dynamics of ecological communities. Here, we introduce a classification scheme for coexistence scenarios in these conservative LV models and quantify the extinction process by employing the Pfaffian of the network’s interaction matrix. We illustrate our findings on global stability properties for general systems of four and five species and find a generalized scaling law for the extinction time.

Resolution of structural heterogeneity in dynamic crystallography

PubMed Central

Ren, Zhong; Chan, Peter W. Y.; Moffat, Keith; Pai, Emil F.; Royer, William E.; Šrajer, Vukica; Yang, Xiaojing

2013-01-01

Dynamic behavior of proteins is critical to their function. X-­ray crystallography, a powerful yet mostly static technique, faces inherent challenges in acquiring dynamic information despite decades of effort. Dynamic ‘structural changes’ are often indirectly inferred from ‘structural differences’ by comparing related static structures. In contrast, the direct observation of dynamic structural changes requires the initiation of a biochemical reaction or process in a crystal. Both the direct and the indirect approaches share a common challenge in analysis: how to interpret the structural heterogeneity intrinsic to all dynamic processes. This paper presents a real-space approach to this challenge, in which a suite of analytical methods and tools to identify and refine the mixed structural species present in multiple crystallographic data sets have been developed. These methods have been applied to representative scenarios in dynamic crystallography, and reveal structural information that is otherwise difficult to interpret or inaccessible using conventional methods. PMID:23695239

Resolution of structural heterogeneity in dynamic crystallography.

PubMed

Ren, Zhong; Chan, Peter W Y; Moffat, Keith; Pai, Emil F; Royer, William E; Šrajer, Vukica; Yang, Xiaojing

2013-06-01

Dynamic behavior of proteins is critical to their function. X-ray crystallography, a powerful yet mostly static technique, faces inherent challenges in acquiring dynamic information despite decades of effort. Dynamic `structural changes' are often indirectly inferred from `structural differences' by comparing related static structures. In contrast, the direct observation of dynamic structural changes requires the initiation of a biochemical reaction or process in a crystal. Both the direct and the indirect approaches share a common challenge in analysis: how to interpret the structural heterogeneity intrinsic to all dynamic processes. This paper presents a real-space approach to this challenge, in which a suite of analytical methods and tools to identify and refine the mixed structural species present in multiple crystallographic data sets have been developed. These methods have been applied to representative scenarios in dynamic crystallography, and reveal structural information that is otherwise difficult to interpret or inaccessible using conventional methods.

The Virtual Habitat - A tool for dynamic life support system simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czupalla, M.; Zhukov, A.; Schnaitmann, J.; Olthoff, C.; Deiml, M.; Plötner, P.; Walter, U.

2015-06-01

In this paper we present the Virtual Habitat (V-HAB) model, which simulates on a system level the dynamics of entire mission scenarios for any given life support system (LSS) including a dynamic representation of the crew. We first present the V-HAB architecture. Thereafter we validate in selected case studies the V-HAB submodules. Finally, we demonstrate the overall abilities of V-HAB by first simulating the LSS of the International Space Station (ISS) and showing how close this comes to real data. In a second case study we simulate the LSS dynamics of a Mars mission scenario. We thus show that V-HAB is able to support LSS design processes, giving LSS designers a set of dynamic decision parameters (e.g. stability, robustness, effective crew time) at hand that supplement or even substitute the common Equivalent System Mass (ESM) quantities as a proxy for LSS hardware costs. The work presented here builds on a LSS heritage by the exploration group at the Technical University at Munich (TUM) dating from even before 2006.

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

PubMed

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management options across wide-ranging conditions.

Recent updates in developing a statistical pseudo-dynamic source-modeling framework to capture the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Seok Goo; Kwak, Sangmin; Lee, Kyungbook; Park, Donghee

2017-04-01

It is a critical element to predict the intensity and variability of strong ground motions in seismic hazard assessment. The characteristics and variability of earthquake rupture process may be a dominant factor in determining the intensity and variability of near-source strong ground motions. Song et al. (2014) demonstrated that the variability of earthquake rupture scenarios could be effectively quantified in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters, constrained by rupture dynamics and past events. The developed pseudo-dynamic source modeling schemes were also validated against the recorded ground motion data of past events and empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at the broadband platform (BBP) developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Recently we improved the computational efficiency of the developed pseudo-dynamic source-modeling scheme by adopting the nonparametric co-regionalization algorithm, introduced and applied in geostatistics initially. We also investigated the effect of earthquake rupture process on near-source ground motion characteristics in the framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics, particularly focusing on the forward directivity region. Finally we will discuss whether the pseudo-dynamic source modeling can reproduce the variability (standard deviation) of empirical GMPEs and the efficiency of 1-point and 2-point statistics to address the variability of ground motions.

Introduction: The SERENITY vision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maña, Antonio; Spanoudakis, George; Kokolakis, Spyros

In this chapter we present an overview of the SERENITY approach. We describe the SERENITY model of secure and dependable applications and show how it addresses the challenge of developing, integrating and dynamically maintaining security and dependability mechanisms in open, dynamic, distributed and heterogeneous computing systems and in particular Ambient Intelligence scenarios. The chapter describes the basic concepts used in the approach and introduces the different processes supported by SERENITY, along with the tools provided.

CALM: Complex Adaptive System (CAS)-Based Decision Support for Enabling Organizational Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adler, Richard M.; Koehn, David J.

Guiding organizations through transformational changes such as restructuring or adopting new technologies is a daunting task. Such changes generate workforce uncertainty, fear, and resistance, reducing morale, focus and performance. Conventional project management techniques fail to mitigate these disruptive effects, because social and individual changes are non-mechanistic, organic phenomena. CALM (for Change, Adaptation, Learning Model) is an innovative decision support system for enabling change based on CAS principles. CALM provides a low risk method for validating and refining change strategies that combines scenario planning techniques with "what-if" behavioral simulation. In essence, CALM "test drives" change strategies before rolling them out, allowing organizations to practice and learn from virtual rather than actual mistakes. This paper describes the CALM modeling methodology, including our metrics for measuring organizational readiness to respond to change and other major CALM scenario elements: prospective change strategies; alternate futures; and key situational dynamics. We then describe CALM's simulation engine for projecting scenario outcomes and its associated analytics. CALM's simulator unifies diverse behavioral simulation paradigms including: adaptive agents; system dynamics; Monte Carlo; event- and process-based techniques. CALM's embodiment of CAS dynamics helps organizations reduce risk and improve confidence and consistency in critical strategies for enabling transformations.

The Intertwining of Enterprise Strategy and Requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loucopoulos, Pericles; Garfield, Joy

Requirements Engineering techniques need to focus not only on the target technical system, as has traditionally been the case, but also on the interplay between business and system functionality. Whether a business wishes to exploit advances in technology to achieve new strategic objectives or to organise work in innovative ways, the process of Requirements Engineering could and should present opportunities for modelling and evaluating the potential impact that technology can bring about to the enterprise.This chapter discusses a co-designing process that offers opportunities of change to both the business and its underlying technical systems, in a synergistic manner. In these design situations some of the most challenging projects involve multiple stakeholders from different participating organisations, subcontractors, divisions etc who may have a diversity of expertise, come from different organisational cultures and often have competing goals. Stakeholders are faced with many different alternative future ‘worlds’ each one demanding a possibly different development strategy.There are acute questions about the potential structure of the new business system and how key variables in this structure could impact on the dynamics of the system. This chapter presents a framework which enables the evaluation of requirements through (a) system dynamics modelling, (b) ontology modelling, (c) scenario modelling and (d) rationale modelling. System dynamics modelling is used to define the behaviour of an enterprise system in terms of four perspectives. Ontology modelling is used to formally define invariant components of the physical and social world within the enterprise domain. Scenario modelling is used to identify critical variables and by quantitatively analyzing the effects of these variables through simulation to better understand the dynamic behaviour of the possible future structures. Rationale modelling is used to assist collaborative discussions when considering either ontology models or scenarios for change, developing maps, which chart the assumptions and reasoning behind key decisions during the requirements process.

How can climate change and engineered water conveyance affect sediment dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, Fernanda; Van der Wegen, Mick; Roelvink, Jan Adriaan; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2017-01-01

Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health.

Regional and long-range transport scenarios for photo-oxidants on the Mediterranean basin in summer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Millan, M.; Mantilla, E.; Salvador, R.

1996-12-31

Atmospheric research, begun in 1988, has shown that the dynamics of air pollutants in the Mediterranean basin in summer are governed by processes ranging from local to large meso-scale with diurnal cycles. Large scale convection over some regions, and up-slope winds in others, can inject aged pollutants into the Mid-troposphere, where they can participate in long-range processes within Southern and Central Europe. Two scenarios have been identified for the regional and long-range transport of photo-oxidants and other pollutants within, and out of, the Western Mediterranean basin. The first scenario involves the pollutants injected over the Spanish Central Plateau directly intomore » the mid-troposphere, and the second, the reservoir layers created along the Mediterranean coast. In the second scenario the key components are: the semi-permanent high(er) pressure area over the colder waters in the Gulf of Lion-Western Mediterranean basin, the mountain ranges which surround it, and the coastal processes. During the day the coastal circulations renovate the upper reservoir layers while the lower ones are drawn inland with the sea-breeze, and effective flow is mostly perpendicular to the coast.« less

Kinematic and Dynamic Source Rupture Scenario for Potential Megathrust Event along the Southernmost Ryukyu Trench

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, T. C.; Hu, F.; Chen, X.; Lee, S. J.; Hung, S. H.

2017-12-01

Kinematic source model is widely used for the simulation of an earthquake, because of its simplicity and ease of application. On the other hand, dynamic source model is a more complex but important tool that can help us to understand the physics of earthquake initiation, propagation, and healing. In this study, we focus on the southernmost Ryukyu Trench which is extremely close to northern Taiwan. Interseismic GPS data in northeast Taiwan shows a pattern of strain accumulation, which suggests the maximum magnitude of a potential future earthquake in this area is probably about magnitude 8.7. We develop dynamic rupture models for the hazard estimation of the potential megathrust event based on the kinematic rupture scenarios which are inverted using the interseismic GPS data. Besides, several kinematic source rupture scenarios with different characterized slip patterns are also considered to constrain the dynamic rupture process better. The initial stresses and friction properties are tested using the trial-and-error method, together with the plate coupling and tectonic features. An analysis of the dynamic stress field associated with the slip prescribed in the kinematic models can indicate possible inconsistencies with physics of faulting. Furthermore, the dynamic and kinematic rupture models are considered to simulate the ground shaking from based on 3-D spectral-element method. We analyze ShakeMap and ShakeMovie from the simulation results to evaluate the influence over the island between different source models. A dispersive tsunami-propagation simulation is also carried out to evaluate the maximum tsunami wave height along the coastal areas of Taiwan due to coseismic seafloor deformation of different source models. The results of this numerical simulation study can provide a physically-based information of megathrust earthquake scenario for the emergency response agency to take the appropriate action before the really big one happens.

WHO WOULD EAT IN A WORLD WITHOUT PHOSPHORUS? A GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumas, M.

2009-12-01

Phosphorus is an indispensable and non-substitutable resource, as agriculture is impossible if soils do not hold adequate amounts of this nutrient. Phosphorus is also considered to be a non-renewable and increasingly scarce resource, as phosphate rock reserves - as one measure of availability amongst others - are estimated to last for 50 to 100 years at current rates of consumption. How would food production decline in different parts of the world in the scenario of a sudden shortage in phosphorus? To answer this question and explore management scenarios, I present a probabilistic model of the structure and dynamics of the global P cycle in the world’s agro-ecosystems. The model proposes an original solution to the challenge of capturing the large-scale aggregate dynamics of multiple micro-scale soil cycling processes. Furthermore, it integrates the essential natural processes with a model of human-managed flows, thereby bringing together several decades of research and measurements from soil science, plant nutrition and long-term agricultural experiments from around the globe. In this paper, I present the model, the first simulation results and the implications for long-term sustainable management of phosphorus and soil fertility.

North Korea after Kim Chong-il: Leadership Dynamics and Potential Crisis Scenarios

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

legal responsibility, and with specified procedures , the actual process is different.3 To date, regime dynamics in the Kim Chong-il era have been... procedures and regulations provide the outlines of formal rule, the 3 For a detailed examination of how...was also made an alternate member. It is also worth noting that 10 of the 12 members of the NDC were represented in the new Politburo lineup , thus

In-Stream Sediment Dynamics for predicted environmental concentration calculations of plant protection products in the FOCUSSW Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strehmel, Alexander; Erzgräber, Beate; Gottesbüren, Bernhard

2016-04-01

The exposure assessment for the EU registration procedure of plant protection products (PPP), which is based on the 'Forum for the co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their use' (FOCUS), currently considers only periods of 12-16 months for the exposure assessment in surface water bodies. However, in a recent scientific opinion of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) it is argued that in a multi-year exposure assessment, the accumulation of PPP substances in river sediment may be a relevant process. Therefore, the EFSA proposed to introduce a sediment accumulation factor in order to account for enrichment of PPP substances over several years in the sediment. The calculation of this accumulation factor, however, would consider degradation in sediment as the only dissipation path, and does not take into account riverine sediment dynamics. In order to assess the influence of deposition and the possible extent of substance accumulation in the sediment phase, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS was employed for an assessment of in-stream sediment dynamics of the FOCUS stream scenarios. The model was parameterized according to the stream characteristics of the FOCUS scenarios and was run over a period of 20 years. The results show that with the distribution of grain sizes and the ranges of flow velocity in the FOCUS streams the main sediment process in the streams is transport. First modeling results suggest that about 80% of the eroded sediment mass from the adjacent field are transported to the downstream end of the stream and out of the system, while only about 20% are deposited in the river bed. At the same time, only about 30% of in-stream sediment mass stems from the adjacent field and is associated with PPP substance, while the remaining sediment consists of the substance-free base sediment concentration regarded in the scenarios. With this, the hydraulic modelling approach is able to support the development of a meaningful sediment accumulation factor by considering in-stream sediment dynamics and estimating long-term sediment deposition and substance burial in the river bed. At last, the study shows that the development of a scientifically sound and justifiable sediment accumulation factor for a long-term exposure assessment is only possible by considering the relevant riverine sediment processes.

Simulation and evaluation on the eco-industrial system of Changchun economic and technological development zone, China.

PubMed

Zhao, Yan; Shang, Jin-cheng; Chen, Chong; Wu, He-nan

2008-04-01

Reasonable structure, adaptive patterns and effective regulation of society, economy and environment subsystems should be taken into account in order to obtain harmonious development of urban eco-industrial system. We simulated and evaluated a redesigned eco-industrial system in Changchun Economic and Technological Development Zone (CCETDZ) in the present work using system dynamics and grey cluster methods. Four typical development strategies were simulated during 2005-2020 via standard system dynamic models. Furthermore, analytic hierarchy process and grey cluster allowed for the eco-industrial system evaluation and scenarios optimizing. Our dynamic simulation and statistical analysis revealed that: (1) CCETDZ would have different development scenarios under different strategies. The total population in scenario 2 grew most rapidly and reached 3.28 x 10(5) in 2020, exceeding its long-term planning expected population. And the GDP differences among these four scenarios would amount to 6.41 x 10(10) RMB. On the other hand, environmental pollution would become serious along with economy increasing. As a restriction factor, positive or negative increment of water resource will occur according to the selected strategy. (2) The fourth strategy would have the best efficiency, which means that the most efficiently development of CCETDZ required to take science, technology, environment progress and economy increase into account at the same time. (3) Positive environment protection measures, such as cleaner production, green manufacture, production life cycle management and environment friendly industries, should be attached great importance the same as economy development during 2005-2020 in CCETDZ.

Effects of dynamic agricultural decision making in an ecohydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichenau, T. G.; Krimly, T.; Schneider, K.

2012-04-01

Due to various interdependencies between the cycles of water, carbon, nitrogen, and energy the impacts of climate change on ecohydrological systems can only be investigated in an integrative way. Furthermore, the human intervention in the environmental processes makes the system even more complex. On the one hand human impact affects natural systems. On the other hand the changing natural systems have a feedback on human decision making. One of the most important examples for this kind of interaction can be found in the agricultural sector. Management dates (planting, fertilization, harvesting) are chosen based on meteorological conditions and yield expectations. A faster development of crops under a warmer climate causes shorter cropping seasons. The choice of crops depends on their profitability, which is mainly determined by market prizes, the agro-political framework, and the (climate dependent) crop yield. This study investigates these relations for the district Günzburg located in the Upper Danube catchment in southern Germany. The modeling system DANUBIA was used to perform dynamically coupled simulations of plant growth, surface and soil hydrological processes, soil nitrogen transformations, and agricultural decision making. The agro-economic model simulates decisions on management dates (based on meteorological conditions and the crops' development state), on fertilization intensities (based on yield expectations), and on choice of crops (based on profitability). The environmental models included in DANUBIA are to a great extent process based to enable its use in a climate change scenario context. Scenario model runs until 2058 were performed using an IPCC A1B forcing. In consecutive runs, dynamic crop management, dynamic crop selection, and a changing agro-political framework were activated. Effects of these model features on hydrological and ecological variables were analyzed separately by comparing the results to a model run with constant crop distribution and constant management. Results show that the influence of the modeled dynamic management adaptation on variables like transpiration, carbon uptake, or nitrate leaching from the vadose zone is stronger than the influence of a dynamic choice of crops. Climate change was found to have a stronger impact on this modeled choice of crops than the agro-political framework. These results suggest that scenario studies in areas with a large share of arable land should take into account management adaptations to changing climate.

Dynamics of prebiotic RNA reproduction illuminated by chemical game theory

PubMed Central

Yeates, Jessica A. M.; Hilbe, Christian; Zwick, Martin; Nowak, Martin A.; Lehman, Niles

2016-01-01

Many origins-of-life scenarios depict a situation in which there are common and potentially scarce resources needed by molecules that compete for survival and reproduction. The dynamics of RNA assembly in a complex mixture of sequences is a frequency-dependent process and mimics such scenarios. By synthesizing Azoarcus ribozyme genotypes that differ in their single-nucleotide interactions with other genotypes, we can create molecules that interact among each other to reproduce. Pairwise interplays between RNAs involve both cooperation and selfishness, quantifiable in a 2 × 2 payoff matrix. We show that a simple model of differential equations based on chemical kinetics accurately predicts the outcomes of these molecular competitions using simple rate inputs into these matrices. In some cases, we find that mixtures of different RNAs reproduce much better than each RNA type alone, reflecting a molecular form of reciprocal cooperation. We also demonstrate that three RNA genotypes can stably coexist in a rock–paper–scissors analog. Our experiments suggest a new type of evolutionary game dynamics, called prelife game dynamics or chemical game dynamics. These operate without template-directed replication, illustrating how small networks of RNAs could have developed and evolved in an RNA world. PMID:27091972

Dynamics of prebiotic RNA reproduction illuminated by chemical game theory.

PubMed

Yeates, Jessica A M; Hilbe, Christian; Zwick, Martin; Nowak, Martin A; Lehman, Niles

2016-05-03

Many origins-of-life scenarios depict a situation in which there are common and potentially scarce resources needed by molecules that compete for survival and reproduction. The dynamics of RNA assembly in a complex mixture of sequences is a frequency-dependent process and mimics such scenarios. By synthesizing Azoarcus ribozyme genotypes that differ in their single-nucleotide interactions with other genotypes, we can create molecules that interact among each other to reproduce. Pairwise interplays between RNAs involve both cooperation and selfishness, quantifiable in a 2 × 2 payoff matrix. We show that a simple model of differential equations based on chemical kinetics accurately predicts the outcomes of these molecular competitions using simple rate inputs into these matrices. In some cases, we find that mixtures of different RNAs reproduce much better than each RNA type alone, reflecting a molecular form of reciprocal cooperation. We also demonstrate that three RNA genotypes can stably coexist in a rock-paper-scissors analog. Our experiments suggest a new type of evolutionary game dynamics, called prelife game dynamics or chemical game dynamics. These operate without template-directed replication, illustrating how small networks of RNAs could have developed and evolved in an RNA world.

Kramers problem in evolutionary strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkel, J.; Ebeling, W.; Schimansky-Geier, L.; Hänggi, P.

2003-06-01

We calculate the escape rates of different dynamical processes for the case of a one-dimensional symmetric double-well potential. In particular, we compare the escape rates of a Smoluchowski process, i.e., a corresponding overdamped Brownian motion dynamics in a metastable potential landscape, with the escape rates obtained for a biologically motivated model known as the Fisher-Eigen process. The main difference between the two models is that the dynamics of the Smoluchowski process is determined by local quantities, whereas the Fisher-Eigen process is based on a global coupling (nonlocal interaction). If considered in the context of numerical optimization algorithms, both processes can be interpreted as archetypes of physically or biologically inspired evolutionary strategies. In this sense, the results discussed in this work are utile in order to evaluate the efficiency of such strategies with regard to the problem of surmounting various barriers. We find that a combination of both scenarios, starting with the Fisher-Eigen strategy, provides a most effective evolutionary strategy.

Knowledge Management: A System Dynamics Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saurabh, Kumar

2005-01-01

In the present day market scenario of intense competition, organizations need to know what they know and be able to leverage on its knowledge base to gain competitive advantage. In this knowledge era, organisations can create and sustain competitive advantage through initiation of appropriate knowledge management processes. The organisations that…

The pedagogical ebb and flow of human patient simulation: empowering through a process of fading support.

PubMed

Parker, Brian Corey; Myrick, Florence

2012-07-01

The use of the high-fidelity human patient simulator (HPS)-based clinical scenario in undergraduate nursing education is a powerful learning tool, well suited to modern nursing students' preference for immersive construction of knowledge through the provision of contextually rich reality-based practice and social discourse. The purpose of this study was to explore the social-psychological processes that occur within HPS-based clinical scenarios. Grounded theory method was used to study students and faculty sampled from a Western Canadian baccalaureate nursing program. The process of leveled coding generated a substantive theory that has the potential to enable educators to empower students through the use of fading support, a twofold process composed of adaptive scaffolding and dynamic assessment that challenges students to realistically self-regulate and transform their frame of reference for nursing practice, while limiting the threats that traditional HPS-based curriculum can impose. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

2014-06-01

Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.

Verification and rectification of the physical analogy of simulated annealing for the solution of the traveling salesman problem.

PubMed

Hasegawa, M

2011-03-01

The aim of the present study is to elucidate how simulated annealing (SA) works in its finite-time implementation by starting from the verification of its conventional optimization scenario based on equilibrium statistical mechanics. Two and one supplementary experiments, the design of which is inspired by concepts and methods developed for studies on liquid and glass, are performed on two types of random traveling salesman problems. In the first experiment, a newly parameterized temperature schedule is introduced to simulate a quasistatic process along the scenario and a parametric study is conducted to investigate the optimization characteristics of this adaptive cooling. In the second experiment, the search trajectory of the Metropolis algorithm (constant-temperature SA) is analyzed in the landscape paradigm in the hope of drawing a precise physical analogy by comparison with the corresponding dynamics of glass-forming molecular systems. These two experiments indicate that the effectiveness of finite-time SA comes not from equilibrium sampling at low temperature but from downward interbasin dynamics occurring before equilibrium. These dynamics work most effectively at an intermediate temperature varying with the total search time and thus this effective temperature is identified using the Deborah number. To test directly the role of these relaxation dynamics in the process of cooling, a supplementary experiment is performed using another parameterized temperature schedule with a piecewise variable cooling rate and the effect of this biased cooling is examined systematically. The results show that the optimization performance is not only dependent on but also sensitive to cooling in the vicinity of the above effec-tive temperature and that this feature is interpreted as a consequence of the presence or absence of the workable interbasin dynamics. It is confirmed for the present instances that the effectiveness of finite-time SA derives from the glassy relaxation dynamics occurring in the "landscape-influenced" temperature regime and that its naive optimization scenario should be rectified by considering the analogy with vitrification phenomena. A comprehensive guideline for the design of finite-time SA and SA-related algorithms is discussed on the basis of this rectified analogy.

An Earth's Future Special Collection: Impacts of the coastal dynamics of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kidwell, David M.; Dietrich, J. Casey; Hagen, Scott C.; Medeiros, Stephen C.

2017-01-01

Rising sea level represents a significant threat to coastal communities and ecosystems, including altered habitats and increased vulnerability to coastal storms and recurrent inundation. This threat is exemplified in the northern Gulf of Mexico, where low topography, marshes, and a prevalence of tropical storms have resulted in extensive coastal impacts. The ability to facilitate adaptation and mitigation measures relies, in part, on the development of robust predictive capabilities that incorporate complex biological processes with physical dynamics. Initiated in 2010, the 6-year Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise—Northern Gulf of Mexico project applied a transdisciplinary science approach to develop a suite of integrated modeling platforms informed by empirical data that are capable of evaluating a range of climate change scenarios. This special issue highlights resultant integrated models focused on tidal hydrodynamics, shoreline morphology, oyster ecology, coastal wetland vulnerability, and storm surges that demonstrate the need for dynamic models to incorporate feedbacks among physical and biological processes in assessments of sea level rise effects on coastal systems. Effects are projected to be significant, spatially variable and nonlinear relative to sea level rise rates. Scenarios of higher sea level rise rates are projected to exceed thresholds of wetland sustainability, and many regions will experience enhanced storm surges. Influenced by an extensive collaborative stakeholder engagement process, these assessments on the coastal dynamics of sea level rise provide a strong foundation for resilience measures in the northern Gulf of Mexico and a transferable approach for application to other coastal regions throughout the world.

Cauchy flights in confining potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garbaczewski, Piotr

2010-03-01

We analyze confining mechanisms for Lévy flights evolving under an influence of external potentials. Given a stationary probability density function (pdf), we address the reverse engineering problem: design a jump-type stochastic process whose target pdf (eventually asymptotic) equals the preselected one. To this end, dynamically distinct jump-type processes can be employed. We demonstrate that one “targeted stochasticity” scenario involves Langevin systems with a symmetric stable noise. Another derives from the Lévy-Schrödinger semigroup dynamics (closely linked with topologically induced super-diffusions), which has no standard Langevin representation. For computational and visualization purposes, the Cauchy driver is employed to exemplify our considerations.

Impact of different disassembly line balancing algorithms on the performance of dynamic kanban system for disassembly line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kizilkaya, Elif A.; Gupta, Surendra M.

2005-11-01

In this paper, we compare the impact of different disassembly line balancing (DLB) algorithms on the performance of our recently introduced Dynamic Kanban System for Disassembly Line (DKSDL) to accommodate the vagaries of uncertainties associated with disassembly and remanufacturing processing. We consider a case study to illustrate the impact of various DLB algorithms on the DKSDL. The approach to the solution, scenario settings, results and the discussions of the results are included.

Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A.

2012-01-01

Climate warming does not force sea-level rise (SLR) at the same rate everywhere. Rather, there are spatial variations of SLR superimposed on a global average rise. These variations are forced by dynamic processes, arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity, and by static equilibrium processes, arising from mass redistributions changing gravity and the Earth's rotation and shape. These sea-level variations form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few observations verifying predicted patterns or fingerprints. Here, we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modelled fingerprint of dynamic SLR. Between 1950–1979 and 1980–2009, SLR rate increases in this northeast hotspot were ~ 3–4 times higher than the global average. Modelled dynamic plus steric SLR by 2100 at New York City ranges with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario from 36 to 51 cm (ref. 3); lower emission scenarios project 24–36 cm (ref. 7). Extrapolations from data herein range from 20 to 29 cm. SLR superimposed on storm surge, wave run-up and set-up will increase the vulnerability of coastal cities to flooding, and beaches and wetlands to deterioration.

Simulation of Regionally Ecological Land Based on a Cellular Automation Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-01-01

Ecological land is like the “liver” of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem. PMID:23066410

Simulation of regionally ecological land based on a cellular automation model: a case study of Beijing, China.

PubMed

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-08-01

Ecological land is like the "liver" of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

PubMed

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R; Booth, Eric G; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C; Kucharik, Christopher J; Chen, Xi; Loheide, Steven P; Seifert, Jenny; Turner, Monica G

2018-01-01

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km 2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive land-use changes and management may buffer water quality against undesirable future climate changes, but changing climate may overwhelm management efforts to sustain freshwater supply and flood regulation. Spatially, changes in ecosystem services were heterogeneous across the landscape, underscoring the power of local actions and fine-scale management. Our research highlights the value of embracing spatial and temporal perspectives in managing ecosystem services and their complex interactions, and provides a system-level understanding for achieving sustainability of the food-water-climate nexus in agricultural landscapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Dynamics of Cooperation in a Task Completion Social Dilemma

PubMed Central

Passino, Kevin M.

2017-01-01

We study the situation where the members of a community have the choice to participate in the completion of a common task. The process of completing the task involves only costs and no benefits to the individuals that participate in this process. However, completing the task results in changes that significantly benefit the community and that exceed the participation efforts. A task completion social dilemma arises when the short-term participation costs dissipate any interest in the community members to contribute to the task completion process and therefore to obtain the benefits that result from completing the task. In this work, we model the task completion problem using a dynamical system that characterizes the participation dynamics in the community and the task completion process. We show how this model naturally allows for the incorporation of several mechanisms that facilitate the emergence of cooperation and that have been studied in previous research on social dilemmas, including communication across a network, and indirect reciprocity through relative reputation. We provide mathematical analyses and computer simulations to study the qualitative properties of the participation dynamics in the community for different scenarios. PMID:28125721

Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

2018-04-01

Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

Linking Stoichiometric Homeostasis of Microorganisms with Soil Phosphorus Dynamics in Wetlands Subjected to Microcosm Warming

PubMed Central

Wang, Hang; Li, HongYi; Zhang, ZhiJian; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; He, Qiang; Xu, XinHua; Yue, ChunLei; Jiang, DaQian

2014-01-01

Soil biogeochemical processes and the ecological stability of wetland ecosystems under global warming scenarios have gained increasing attention worldwide. Changes in the capacity of microorganisms to maintain stoichiometric homeostasis, or relatively stable internal concentrations of elements, may serve as an indicator of alterations to soil biogeochemical processes and their associated ecological feedbacks. In this study, an outdoor computerized microcosm was set up to simulate a warmed (+5°C) climate scenario, using novel, minute-scale temperature manipulation technology. The principle of stoichiometric homeostasis was adopted to illustrate phosphorus (P) biogeochemical cycling coupled with carbon (C) dynamics within the soil-microorganism complex. We hypothesized that enhancing the flux of P from soil to water under warming scenarios is tightly coupled with a decrease in homeostatic regulation ability in wetland ecosystems. Results indicate that experimental warming impaired the ability of stoichiometric homeostasis (H) to regulate biogeochemical processes, enhancing the ecological role of wetland soil as an ecological source for both P and C. The potential P flux from soil to water ranged from 0.11 to 34.51 mg m−2 d−1 in the control and 0.07 to 61.26 mg m−2 d−1 in the warmed treatment. The synergistic function of C-P acquisition is an important mechanism underlying C∶P stoichiometric balance for soil microorganisms under warming. For both treatment groups, strongly significant (p<0.001) relationships fitting a negative allometric power model with a fractional exponent were found between n-HC∶P (the specialized homeostatic regulation ability as a ratio of soil highly labile organic carbon to dissolved reactive phosphorus in porewater) and potential P flux. Although many factors may affect soil P dynamics, the n-HC∶P term fundamentally reflects the stoichiometric balance or interactions between the energy landscape (i.e., C) and flow of resources (e.g., N and P), and can be a useful ecological tool for assessing potential P flux in ecosystems. PMID:24475045

Multi-scale modeling for the transmission of influenza and the evaluation of interventions toward it.

PubMed

Guo, Dongmin; Li, King C; Peters, Timothy R; Snively, Beverly M; Poehling, Katherine A; Zhou, Xiaobo

2015-03-11

Mathematical modeling of influenza epidemic is important for analyzing the main cause of the epidemic and finding effective interventions towards it. The epidemic is a dynamic process. In this process, daily infections are caused by people's contacts, and the frequency of contacts can be mainly influenced by their cognition to the disease. The cognition is in turn influenced by daily illness attack rate, climate, and other environment factors. Few existing methods considered the dynamic process in their models. Therefore, their prediction results can hardly be explained by the mechanisms of epidemic spreading. In this paper, we developed a heterogeneous graph modeling approach (HGM) to describe the dynamic process of influenza virus transmission by taking advantage of our unique clinical data. We built social network of studied region and embedded an Agent-Based Model (ABM) in the HGM to describe the dynamic change of an epidemic. Our simulations have a good agreement with clinical data. Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that temperature influences the dynamic of epidemic significantly and system behavior analysis showed social network degree is a critical factor determining the size of an epidemic. Finally, multiple scenarios for vaccination and school closure strategies were simulated and their performance was analyzed.

Dynamics of avalanche-generated impulse waves: three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, Rachel E.; McKinney, Daene C.

2018-05-01

This paper studies the lake dynamics for avalanche-triggered glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Cordillera Blanca mountain range in Ancash, Peru. As new glacial lakes emerge and existing lakes continue to grow, they pose an increasing threat of GLOFs that can be catastrophic to the communities living downstream. In this work, the dynamics of displacement waves produced from avalanches are studied through three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of Lake Palcacocha, Peru, with an emphasis on the sensitivity of the lake model to input parameters and boundary conditions. This type of avalanche-generated wave is an important link in the GLOF process chain because there is a high potential for overtopping and erosion of the lake-damming moraine. The lake model was evaluated for sensitivity to turbulence model and grid resolution, and the uncertainty due to these model parameters is significantly less than that due to avalanche boundary condition characteristics. Wave generation from avalanche impact was simulated using two different boundary condition methods. Representation of an avalanche as water flowing into the lake generally resulted in higher peak flows and overtopping volumes than simulating the avalanche impact as mass-momentum inflow at the lake boundary. Three different scenarios of avalanche size were simulated for the current lake conditions, and all resulted in significant overtopping of the lake-damming moraine. Although the lake model introduces significant uncertainty, the avalanche portion of the GLOF process chain is likely to be the greatest source of uncertainty. To aid in evaluation of hazard mitigation alternatives, two scenarios of lake lowering were investigated. While large avalanches produced significant overtopping waves for all lake-lowering scenarios, simulations suggest that it may be possible to contain waves generated from smaller avalanches if the surface of the lake is lowered.

In situ modeling of PAH dynamics in agricultural soils amended with composts using the "VSOIL" platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brimo, Khaled; Ouvrard, Stéphanie; Houot, Sabine; Lafolie, François; Deschamps, Marjolaine; Benoit, Pierre; Garnier, Patricia

2017-04-01

Numerous studies have shown the presence of organic pollutants (OPs) in composts. Compost application in agricultural soil generates flux of OPs and among them polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). A potential accumulation of PAHs in soils from successive compost applications could imply risks to environment. To explore and design scenarios that help land managers in their impact evaluations when composts are added in soils, there is a need to a new generation of models built from multi-modules that mimic the whole interactions between the different processes describing OP dynamic in soil. Our work is based on the implementation of an interdisciplinary global model for PAHs in soil by coupling modules describing the major physical, biochemical and biological processes influencing the fate of PAHs in soil, with modules that simulate water transfer, heat transfer, solute transport, and organic matter transformation under climatic conditions. The coupling is being facilitated by the «VSOIL» modeling platform. The steps of our modelling study are the following: 1) calibrate the field model using parameters previously estimated in laboratory completed with field data on a short period, 2) test the simulations using field experimental data, 3) build scenarios to explore the impact of PAHs accumulation in a long term (40 years). Our results show that the model can adequately predict the fate of PAHs in soil and can contribute to clarify some of unexplored aspects regarding the behavior of PAHs in soil like their mineralization and stabilization. Scenarios that predict the dynamic of PAHs in soil at long terms show a low PAH accumulation in soil after 40 years due to a high sequestration of the PAH in soils that is slightly higher for municipal solid waste composts than for green waste sludge composts.

Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, Christopher M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Pidgeon, Anna M.

2015-01-01

Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

2016-01-01

Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML. PMID:27023575

Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

PubMed

Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

2016-03-24

Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

Dynamical Formation and Merger of Binary Black Holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Nicholas

2017-01-01

The advent of gravitational wave (GW) astronomy began with Advanced LIGO's 2015 discovery of GWs from coalescing black hole (BH) binaries. GW astronomy holds great promise for testing general relativity, but also for investigating open astrophysical questions not amenable to traditional electromagnetic observations. One such question concerns the origin of stellar mass BH binaries in the universe: do these form primarily from evolution of isolated binaries of massive stars, or do they form through more exotic dynamical channels? The best studied dynamical formation channel involves multibody interactions of BHs and stars in dense globular cluster environments, but many other dynamical scenarios have recently been proposed, ranging from the Kozai effect in hierarchical triple systems to BH binary formation in the outskirts of Toomre-unstable accretion disks surrounding supermassive black holes. The BH binaries formed through these processes will have different distributions of observable parameters (e.g. mass ratios, spins) than BH binaries formed through the evolution of isolated binary stars. In my talk I will overview these and other dynamical formation scenarios, and summarize the key observational tests that will enable Advanced LIGO or other future detectors to determine what formation pathway creates the majority of binary BHs in the universe. NCS thanks NASA, which has funded his work through Einstein postdoctoral grant PF5-160145.

System Dynamic Model for the Accumulation of Renewable Electricity using Power-to-Gas and Power-to-Liquid Concepts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blumberga, Andra; Timma, Lelde; Blumberga, Dagnija

2015-12-01

When the renewable energy is used, the challenge is match the supply of intermittent energy with the demand for energy therefore the energy storage solutions should be used. This paper is dedicated to hydrogen accumulation from wind sources. The case study investigates the conceptual system that uses intermitted renewable energy resources to produce hydrogen (power-to-gas concept) and fuel (power-to-liquid concept). For this specific case study hydrogen is produced from surplus electricity generated by wind power plant trough electrolysis process and fuel is obtained by upgrading biogas to biomethane using hydrogen. System dynamic model is created for this conceptual system. The developed system dynamics model has been used to simulate 2 different scenarios. The results show that in both scenarios the point at which the all electricity needs of Latvia are covered is obtained. Moreover, the methodology of system dynamics used in this paper is white-box model that allows to apply the developed model to other case studies and/or to modify model based on the newest data. The developed model can be used for both scientific research and policy makers to better understand the dynamic relation within the system and the response of system to changes in both internal and external factors.

Direct variational data assimilation algorithm for atmospheric chemistry data with transport and transformation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penenko, Alexey; Penenko, Vladimir; Nuterman, Roman; Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander

2015-11-01

Atmospheric chemistry dynamics is studied with convection-diffusion-reaction model. The numerical Data Assimilation algorithm presented is based on the additive-averaged splitting schemes. It carries out ''fine-grained'' variational data assimilation on the separate splitting stages with respect to spatial dimensions and processes i.e. the same measurement data is assimilated to different parts of the split model. This design has efficient implementation due to the direct data assimilation algorithms of the transport process along coordinate lines. Results of numerical experiments with chemical data assimilation algorithm of in situ concentration measurements on real data scenario have been presented. In order to construct the scenario, meteorological data has been taken from EnviroHIRLAM model output, initial conditions from MOZART model output and measurements from Airbase database.

Experimental Study of Slabbing and Rockburst Induced by True-Triaxial Unloading and Local Dynamic Disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Kun; Tao, Ming; Li, Xi-bing; Zhou, Jian

2016-09-01

Slabbing/spalling and rockburst are unconventional types of failure of hard rocks under conditions of unloading and various dynamic loads in environments with high and complex initial stresses. In this study, the failure behaviors of different rock types (granite, red sandstone, and cement mortar) were investigated using a novel testing system coupled to true-triaxial static loads and local dynamic disturbances. An acoustic emission system and a high-speed camera were used to record the real-time fracturing processes. The true-triaxial unloading test results indicate that slabbing occurred in the granite and sandstone, whereas the cement mortar underwent shear failure. Under local dynamically disturbed loading, none of the specimens displayed obvious fracturing at low-amplitude local dynamic loading; however, the degree of rock failure increased as the local dynamic loading amplitude increased. The cement mortar displayed no failure during testing, showing a considerable load-carrying capacity after testing. The sandstone underwent a relatively stable fracturing process, whereas violent rockbursts occurred in the granite specimen. The fracturing process does not appear to depend on the direction of local dynamic loading, and the acoustic emission count rate during rock fragmentation shows that similar crack evolution occurred under the two test scenarios (true-triaxial unloading and local dynamically disturbed loading).

Tropical peatland carbon dynamics simulated for scenarios of disturbance and restoration and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolking, S. E.; Warren, M.; Dai, Z.; Kurnianto, S.; Hagen, S. C.

2015-12-01

Tropical peatlands contain a globally significant carbon pool. Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, mostly for conversion to industrial oil palm or pulp and paper plantations. The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increasing attention in recent years as persistent greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided or decreased if peatlands remain intact or are rehabilitated. In addition, peatland conservation or rehabilitation for climate mitigation also includes multiple co-benefits such as maintenance of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and air quality from reduced fire occurrence. Inventory guidelines and methodologies have only recently become available, and are based on few data from a limited number of sites. Few heuristic tools are available to evaluate the impact of management practices on carbon dynamics in tropical peatlands, and the potential climate mitigation benefits of peatland restoration. We used a process based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore the C dynamics of several peatland management trajectories represented by hypothetical scenarios, within the context of simulated 21st century climate change. All scenarios with land use, including those with optimal restoration, simulate C loss over the 21st century, with C losses ranging from 10% to essentially 100% of pre-disturbance values. Fire, either prescribed as part of a crop rotation cycle, or stochastic occurrences in sub-optimally managed degraded land can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. A single 25-year oil palm rotation, with a prescribed initial burn, lost 40-50 kg C/m2, equivalent to accumulation during the previous 500 years, 10-30% of which was restored in 75 years of optimal restoration. Our results indicate that even under the most optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one-third of the carbon lost to the atmosphere from 25 years of oil palm cultivation can be recovered within the next 75 years. In addition, peat fire suppression is the most effective management tool to maintain peatland carbon stocks, and should be a high priority for climate mitigation efforts on peatlands.

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

Doubly differential star-16-QAM for fast wavelength switching coherent optical packet transceiver.

PubMed

Liu, Fan; Lin, Yi; Walsh, Anthony J; Yu, Yonglin; Barry, Liam P

2018-04-02

A coherent optical packet transceiver based on doubly differential star 16-ary quadrature amplitude modulation (DD-star-16-QAM) is presented for spectrally and energy efficient reconfigurable networks. The coding and decoding processes for this new modulation format are presented, simulations and experiments are then performed to investigate the performance of the DD-star-16-QAM in static and dynamic scenarios. The static results show that the influence of frequency offset (FO) can be cancelled out by doubly differential (DD) coding and the correction range is only limited by the electronic bandwidth of the receivers. In the dynamic scenario with a time-varying FO and linewidth, the DD-star-16-QAM can overcome the time-varying FO, and the switching time of around 70 ns is determined by the time it takes the dynamic linewidth to reach the requisite level. This format can thus achieve a shorter waiting time after switching tunable lasers than the commonly used square-16-QAM, in which the transmission performance is limited by the frequency transients after the wavelength switch.

[The body as the scenario for social vulnerability regarding health].

PubMed

Ortega-Bolaños, Jesús A; Bula-Escobar, Jorge I

2012-10-01

Theoretical reflection concerning the human body within a scenario of social healthcare practices recognizes its nature through ontological dimensions for defining our finiteness and facticity in a world where nobody experiences their own birth or death but rather experiences such events through others. Considering health as an overall process called existence, being conscious of one's own body in terms of dynamic states of health and disease, is related to scenarios where the body has played a central role in the existential experience of the culture which it has built and in which it has been living, as well as in the relationship of knowledge with how power is exercised. Relationships between knowledge, power, resistance and the action of bodies are scenarios concerning social vulnerability regarding health. We wish to raise awareness concerning the relationship between bodies and social vulnerability regarding health as an emergent scenario for promoting discussion dealing with claiming the right to health and the chances of it being positively affected by public health policy from a trans-sector response and a community-based response proposed by Colombian society and culture.

Opportunities to Foster Efficient Communication in Labor and Delivery Using Simulation.

PubMed

Daniels, Kay; Hamilton, Colleen; Crowe, Susan; Lipman, Steven S; Halamek, Louis P; Lee, Henry C

2017-01-01

Introduction  Communication errors are an important contributing factor in adverse outcomes in labor and delivery (L&D) units. The objective of this study was to identify common lapses in verbal communication using simulated obstetrical scenarios and propose alternative formats for communication. Methods  Health care professionals in L&D participated in three simulated clinical scenarios. Scenarios were recorded and reviewed to identify questions repeated within and across scenarios. Questions that were repeated more than once due to ineffective communication were identified. The frequency with which the questions were asked across simulations was identified. Results  Questions were commonly repeated both within and across 27 simulated scenarios. The median number of questions asked was 27 per simulated scenario. Commonly repeated questions focused on three general topics: (1) historical data/information (i.e., estimated gestational age), (2) maternal clinical status (i.e., estimated blood loss), and (3) personnel (i.e., "Has anesthesiologist been called?"). Conclusion  Inefficient verbal communication exists in the process of transferring information during obstetric emergencies. These findings can inform improved training and development of information displays to improve teamwork and communication. A visual display that can report static historical information and specific dynamic clinical data may facilitate optimal human performance.

HD271791: dynamical versus binary-supernova ejection scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gvaramadze, V. V.

2009-05-01

The atmosphere of the extremely high-velocity (530-920kms-1) early B-type star HD271791 is enriched in α-process elements, which suggests that this star is a former secondary component of a massive tight binary system and that its surface was polluted by the nucleosynthetic products after the primary star exploded in a supernova. It was proposed that the (asymmetric) supernova explosion unbind the system and that the secondary star (HD271791) was released at its orbital velocity in the direction of Galactic rotation. In this Letter, we show that to explain the Galactic rest-frame velocity of HD271791 within the framework of the binary-supernova scenario, the stellar remnant of the supernova explosion (a <~10Msolar black hole) should receive an unrealistically large kick velocity of >=750-1200kms-1. We therefore consider the binary-supernova scenario as highly unlikely and instead propose that HD271791 attained its peculiar velocity in the course of a strong dynamical three- or four-body encounter in the dense core of the parent star cluster. Our proposal implies that by the moment of encounter HD271791 was a member of a massive post-supernova binary.

Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Brewington, L.; Finucane, M.

2015-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui in Hawai'i has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to both surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for sustainable future freshwater supply in Hawai'i requires adaptive policies and decision-making that emphasizes private and public partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. We have downscaled dynamical climate models to 1 km resolution in Maui and coupled them with a USGS Water Budget model and a participatory scenario building process to quantify future changes in island-scale climate and groundwater recharge under different land uses. Although these projections are uncertain, the integrated nature of the Pacific RISA research program has allowed us to take a multi-pronged approach to facilitate the uptake of climate information into policy and management. This presentation details the ongoing work to support the development of Hawai'i's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of ~100 decision-makers in state and local government, watershed restoration, agriculture, and conservation to 1) determine the type of information (climate variables, land use and development, agricultural practices) they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of nested scenarios that represent alternative climate and management futures. This integration of knowledge is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives of complex futures comprised of information at multiple scales. We will present an overview of the downscaling, scenario building, hydrological modeling processes, and stakeholder response.

Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

2000-01-01

Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

Objective comparison of particle tracking methods.

PubMed

Chenouard, Nicolas; Smal, Ihor; de Chaumont, Fabrice; Maška, Martin; Sbalzarini, Ivo F; Gong, Yuanhao; Cardinale, Janick; Carthel, Craig; Coraluppi, Stefano; Winter, Mark; Cohen, Andrew R; Godinez, William J; Rohr, Karl; Kalaidzidis, Yannis; Liang, Liang; Duncan, James; Shen, Hongying; Xu, Yingke; Magnusson, Klas E G; Jaldén, Joakim; Blau, Helen M; Paul-Gilloteaux, Perrine; Roudot, Philippe; Kervrann, Charles; Waharte, François; Tinevez, Jean-Yves; Shorte, Spencer L; Willemse, Joost; Celler, Katherine; van Wezel, Gilles P; Dan, Han-Wei; Tsai, Yuh-Show; Ortiz de Solórzano, Carlos; Olivo-Marin, Jean-Christophe; Meijering, Erik

2014-03-01

Particle tracking is of key importance for quantitative analysis of intracellular dynamic processes from time-lapse microscopy image data. Because manually detecting and following large numbers of individual particles is not feasible, automated computational methods have been developed for these tasks by many groups. Aiming to perform an objective comparison of methods, we gathered the community and organized an open competition in which participating teams applied their own methods independently to a commonly defined data set including diverse scenarios. Performance was assessed using commonly defined measures. Although no single method performed best across all scenarios, the results revealed clear differences between the various approaches, leading to notable practical conclusions for users and developers.

Bosonic-seesaw portal dark matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishida, Hiroyuki; Matsuzaki, Shinya; Yamaguchi, Yuya

2017-10-01

We discuss a new type of Higgs-portal dark matter (DM) production mechanism, called the bosonic-seesaw portal (BSP) scenario. The BS provides the dynamical origin of the electroweak symmetry breaking, triggered by mixing between the elementary Higgs and a composite Higgs generated by a new-color strong dynamics, hypercolor (HC). At the HC strong coupling scale, the classical-scale invariance assumed in the model is dynamically broken, as well as the "chiral" symmetry present in the HC sector. In addition to the composite Higgs, HC baryons emerge to potentially be stable because of the unbroken HC baryon number symmetry. Hence the lightest HC baryon can be a DM candidate. Of interest in the present scenario is that HC pions can be as heavy as the HC baryon due to the possibly enhanced explicit "chiral"-breaking effect triggered after the BS mechanism, so the HC baryon pair cannot annihilate into HC pions. As in the standard setup of the freeze-in scenario, it is assumed that the DM was never in the thermal equilibrium, which ends up with no thermal abundance. It is then the non-thermal BSP process that crucially comes into the game below the HC scale: the HC baryon significantly couples to the standard-model Higgs via the BS mechanism, and can non-thermally be produced from the thermal plasma below the HC scale, which turns out to allow the TeV mass scale for the composite baryonic DM, much smaller than the generic bound placed in the conventional thermal freeze-out scenario, to account for the observed relic abundance. Thus the DM can closely be related to the mechanism of the electroweak symmetry breaking.

Benchmarking desktop and mobile handwriting across COTS devices: The e-BioSign biometric database

PubMed Central

Tolosana, Ruben; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Fierrez, Julian; Morales, Aythami; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

2017-01-01

This paper describes the design, acquisition process and baseline evaluation of the new e-BioSign database, which includes dynamic signature and handwriting information. Data is acquired from 5 different COTS devices: three Wacom devices (STU-500, STU-530 and DTU-1031) specifically designed to capture dynamic signatures and handwriting, and two general purpose tablets (Samsung Galaxy Note 10.1 and Samsung ATIV 7). For the two Samsung tablets, data is collected using both pen stylus and also the finger in order to study the performance of signature verification in a mobile scenario. Data was collected in two sessions for 65 subjects, and includes dynamic information of the signature, the full name and alpha numeric sequences. Skilled forgeries were also performed for signatures and full names. We also report a benchmark evaluation based on e-BioSign for person verification under three different real scenarios: 1) intra-device, 2) inter-device, and 3) mixed writing-tool. We have experimented the proposed benchmark using the main existing approaches for signature verification: feature- and time functions-based. As a result, new insights into the problem of signature biometrics in sensor-interoperable scenarios have been obtained, namely: the importance of specific methods for dealing with device interoperability, and the necessity of a deeper analysis on signatures acquired using the finger as the writing tool. This e-BioSign public database allows the research community to: 1) further analyse and develop signature verification systems in realistic scenarios, and 2) investigate towards a better understanding of the nature of the human handwriting when captured using electronic COTS devices in realistic conditions. PMID:28475590

Benchmarking desktop and mobile handwriting across COTS devices: The e-BioSign biometric database.

PubMed

Tolosana, Ruben; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Fierrez, Julian; Morales, Aythami; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

2017-01-01

This paper describes the design, acquisition process and baseline evaluation of the new e-BioSign database, which includes dynamic signature and handwriting information. Data is acquired from 5 different COTS devices: three Wacom devices (STU-500, STU-530 and DTU-1031) specifically designed to capture dynamic signatures and handwriting, and two general purpose tablets (Samsung Galaxy Note 10.1 and Samsung ATIV 7). For the two Samsung tablets, data is collected using both pen stylus and also the finger in order to study the performance of signature verification in a mobile scenario. Data was collected in two sessions for 65 subjects, and includes dynamic information of the signature, the full name and alpha numeric sequences. Skilled forgeries were also performed for signatures and full names. We also report a benchmark evaluation based on e-BioSign for person verification under three different real scenarios: 1) intra-device, 2) inter-device, and 3) mixed writing-tool. We have experimented the proposed benchmark using the main existing approaches for signature verification: feature- and time functions-based. As a result, new insights into the problem of signature biometrics in sensor-interoperable scenarios have been obtained, namely: the importance of specific methods for dealing with device interoperability, and the necessity of a deeper analysis on signatures acquired using the finger as the writing tool. This e-BioSign public database allows the research community to: 1) further analyse and develop signature verification systems in realistic scenarios, and 2) investigate towards a better understanding of the nature of the human handwriting when captured using electronic COTS devices in realistic conditions.

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

Scenario management and automated scenario generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKeever, William; Gilmour, Duane; Lehman, Lynn; Stirtzinger, Anthony; Krause, Lee

2006-05-01

The military planning process utilizes simulation to determine the appropriate course of action (COA) that will achieve a campaign end state. However, due to the difficulty in developing and generating simulation level COAs, only a few COAs are simulated. This may have been appropriate for traditional conflicts but the evolution of warfare from attrition based to effects based strategies, as well as the complexities of 4 th generation warfare and asymmetric adversaries have placed additional demands on military planners and simulation. To keep pace with this dynamic, changing environment, planners must be able to perform continuous, multiple, "what-if" COA analysis. Scenario management and generation are critical elements to achieving this goal. An effects based scenario generation research project demonstrated the feasibility of automated scenario generation techniques which support multiple stove-pipe and emerging broad scope simulations. This paper will discuss a case study in which the scenario generation capability was employed to support COA simulations to identify plan effectiveness. The study demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple simulation runs to evaluate the effectiveness of alternate COAs in achieving the overall campaign (metrics-based) objectives. The paper will discuss how scenario generation technology can be employed to allow military commanders and mission planning staff to understand the impact of command decisions on the battlespace of tomorrow.

Emergence of Leadership in Communication

PubMed Central

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Galstyan, Aram

2016-01-01

We study a neuro-inspired model that mimics a discussion (or information dissemination) process in a network of agents. During their interaction, agents redistribute activity and network weights, resulting in emergence of leader(s). The model is able to reproduce the basic scenarios of leadership known in nature and society: laissez-faire (irregular activity, weak leadership, sizable inter-follower interaction, autonomous sub-leaders); participative or democratic (strong leadership, but with feedback from followers); and autocratic (no feedback, one-way influence). Several pertinent aspects of these scenarios are found as well—e.g., hidden leadership (a hidden clique of agents driving the official autocratic leader), and successive leadership (two leaders influence followers by turns). We study how these scenarios emerge from inter-agent dynamics and how they depend on behavior rules of agents—in particular, on their inertia against state changes. PMID:27532484

Emergence of Leadership in Communication.

PubMed

Allahverdyan, Armen E; Galstyan, Aram

2016-01-01

We study a neuro-inspired model that mimics a discussion (or information dissemination) process in a network of agents. During their interaction, agents redistribute activity and network weights, resulting in emergence of leader(s). The model is able to reproduce the basic scenarios of leadership known in nature and society: laissez-faire (irregular activity, weak leadership, sizable inter-follower interaction, autonomous sub-leaders); participative or democratic (strong leadership, but with feedback from followers); and autocratic (no feedback, one-way influence). Several pertinent aspects of these scenarios are found as well-e.g., hidden leadership (a hidden clique of agents driving the official autocratic leader), and successive leadership (two leaders influence followers by turns). We study how these scenarios emerge from inter-agent dynamics and how they depend on behavior rules of agents-in particular, on their inertia against state changes.

Prospective time-resolved LCA of fully electric supercap vehicles in Germany.

PubMed

Zimmermann, Benedikt M; Dura, Hanna; Baumann, Manuel J; Weil, Marcel R

2015-07-01

The ongoing transition of the German electricity supply toward a higher share of renewable and sustainable energy sources, called Energiewende in German, has led to dynamic changes in the environmental impact of electricity over the last few years. Prominent scenario studies predict that comparable dynamics will continue in the coming decades, which will further improve the environmental performance of Germany's electricity supply. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is the methodology commonly used to evaluate environmental performance. Previous LCA studies on electric vehicles have shown that the electricity supply for the vehicles' operation is responsible for the major part of their environmental impact. The core question of this study is how the prospective dynamic development of the German electricity mix will affect the impact of electric vehicles operated in Germany and how LCA can be adapted to analyze this impact in a more robust manner. The previously suggested approach of time-resolved LCA, which is located between static and dynamic LCA, is used in this study and compared with several static approaches. Furthermore, the uncertainty issue associated with scenario studies is addressed in general and in relation to time-resolved LCA. Two scenario studies relevant to policy making have been selected, but a moderate number of modifications have been necessary to adapt the data to the requirements of a life cycle inventory. A potential, fully electric vehicle powered by a supercapacitor energy storage system is used as a generic example. The results show that substantial improvements in the environmental repercussions of the electricity supply and, consequentially, of electric vehicles will be achieved between 2020 and 2031 on the basis of the energy mixes predicted in both studies. This study concludes that although scenarios might not be able to predict the future, they should nonetheless be used as data sources in prospective LCA studies, because in many cases historic data appears to be unsuitable for providing realistic information on the future. The time-resolved LCA approach improves the assessment's robustness substantially, especially when nonlinear developments are foreseen in the future scenarios. This allows for a reduction of bias in LCA-based decision making. However, a deeper integration of time-resolved data in the life cycle inventory and the implementation of a more suitable software framework are desirable. The study describes how life cycle assessment's (LCA) robustness can be improved by respecting prospective fluctuations, like the transition of the German electricity mix, in the modeling of the life cycle inventory. It presents a feasible and rather simple process to add time-resolved data to LCA. The study selects 2 different future scenarios from important German studies and processes their data systematically to make them compatible with the requirements of a life cycle inventory. The use of external scenarios as basis for future-oriented LCA is reflected critically. A case study on electric mobility is presented and used to compare historic, prospective static, and prospective time-resolved electricity mix modeling approaches. The case study emphasizes the benefits of time-resolved LCA in direct comparison with the currently used approaches. © 2015 SETAC.

Studies on Manfred Eigen's model for the self-organization of information processing.

PubMed

Ebeling, W; Feistel, R

2018-05-01

In 1971, Manfred Eigen extended the principles of Darwinian evolution to chemical processes, from catalytic networks to the emergence of information processing at the molecular level, leading to the emergence of life. In this paper, we investigate some very general characteristics of this scenario, such as the valuation process of phenotypic traits in a high-dimensional fitness landscape, the effect of spatial compartmentation on the valuation, and the self-organized transition from structural to symbolic genetic information of replicating chain molecules. In the first part, we perform an analysis of typical dynamical properties of continuous dynamical models of evolutionary processes. In particular, we study the mapping of genotype to continuous phenotype spaces following the ideas of Wright and Conrad. We investigate typical features of a Schrödinger-like dynamics, the consequences of the high dimensionality, the leading role of saddle points, and Conrad's extra-dimensional bypass. In the last part, we discuss in brief the valuation of compartment models and the self-organized emergence of molecular symbols at the beginning of life.

Generation of Look-Up Tables for Dynamic Job Shop Scheduling Decision Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oktaviandri, Muchamad; Hassan, Adnan; Mohd Shaharoun, Awaluddin

2016-02-01

Majority of existing scheduling techniques are based on static demand and deterministic processing time, while most job shop scheduling problem are concerned with dynamic demand and stochastic processing time. As a consequence, the solutions obtained from the traditional scheduling technique are ineffective wherever changes occur to the system. Therefore, this research intends to develop a decision support tool (DST) based on promising artificial intelligent that is able to accommodate the dynamics that regularly occur in job shop scheduling problem. The DST was designed through three phases, i.e. (i) the look-up table generation, (ii) inverse model development and (iii) integration of DST components. This paper reports the generation of look-up tables for various scenarios as a part in development of the DST. A discrete event simulation model was used to compare the performance among SPT, EDD, FCFS, S/OPN and Slack rules; the best performances measures (mean flow time, mean tardiness and mean lateness) and the job order requirement (inter-arrival time, due dates tightness and setup time ratio) which were compiled into look-up tables. The well-known 6/6/J/Cmax Problem from Muth and Thompson (1963) was used as a case study. In the future, the performance measure of various scheduling scenarios and the job order requirement will be mapped using ANN inverse model.

Do environmental dynamics matter in fate models? Exploring scenario dynamics for a terrestrial and an aquatic system.

PubMed

Morselli, Melissa; Terzaghi, Elisa; Di Guardo, Antonio

2018-01-24

Nowadays, there is growing interest in inserting more ecological realism into risk assessment of chemicals. On the exposure evaluation side, this can be done by studying the complexity of exposure in the ecosystem, niche partitioning, e.g. variation of the exposure scenario. Current regulatory predictive approaches, to ensure simplicity and predictive ability, generally keep the scenario as static as possible. This could lead to under or overprediction of chemical exposure depending on the chemical and scenario simulated. To account for more realistic exposure conditions, varying temporally and spatially, additional scenario complexity should be included in currently used models to improve their predictive ability. This study presents two case studies (a terrestrial and an aquatic one) in which some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were simulated with the SoilPlusVeg and ChimERA models to show the importance of scenario variation in time (biotic and abiotic compartments). The results outlined the importance of accounting for planetary boundary layer variation and vegetation dynamics to accurately predict air concentration changes and the timing of chemical dispersion from the source in terrestrial systems. For the aquatic exercise, the results indicated the need to account for organic carbon forms (particulate and dissolved organic carbon) and vegetation biomass dynamics. In both cases the range of variation was up to two orders of magnitude depending on the congener and scenario, reinforcing the need for incorporating such knowledge into exposure assessment.

Development of High Fidelity Mobility Simulation of an Autonomous Vehicle in an Off-Road Scenario Using Integrated Sensor, Controller, and Multi-Body Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-04

AND MULTI-BODY DYNAMICS Jayakumar , Smith, Ross, Jategaonkar, Konarzewski 4 August 2011 UNCLASSIFIED: Distribution Statement A. Approved for public...Autonomous Vehicle in an Off-Road Scenario Using Integrated Sensor, Controller, and Multi-Body Dynamics 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...Cannot neglect vehicle dynamics 4 August 2011 3 UNCLASSIFIED Importance of Simulation Fidelity • Performance evaluation requires entire system

Nonlinear dynamics in low permittivity media: the impact of losses.

PubMed

Vincenti, M A; de Ceglia, D; Scalora, M

2013-12-02

Slabs of materials with near-zero permittivity display enhanced nonlinear processes. We show that field enhancement due to the continuity of the longitudinal component of the displacement field drastically enhances harmonic generation. We investigate the impact of losses with and without bulk nonlinearities and demonstrate that in the latter scenario surface, magnetic and quadrupolar nonlinear sources cannot always be ignored.

Time scale bridging in atomistic simulation of slow dynamics: viscous relaxation and defect activation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushima, A.; Eapen, J.; Li, Ju; Yip, S.; Zhu, T.

2011-08-01

Atomistic simulation methods are known for timescale limitations in resolving slow dynamical processes. Two well-known scenarios of slow dynamics are viscous relaxation in supercooled liquids and creep deformation in stressed solids. In both phenomena the challenge to theory and simulation is to sample the transition state pathways efficiently and follow the dynamical processes on long timescales. We present a perspective based on the biased molecular simulation methods such as metadynamics, autonomous basin climbing (ABC), strain-boost and adaptive boost simulations. Such algorithms can enable an atomic-level explanation of the temperature variation of the shear viscosity of glassy liquids, and the relaxation behavior in solids undergoing creep deformation. By discussing the dynamics of slow relaxation in two quite different areas of condensed matter science, we hope to draw attention to other complex problems where anthropological or geological-scale time behavior can be simulated at atomic resolution and understood in terms of micro-scale processes of molecular rearrangements and collective interactions. As examples of a class of phenomena that can be broadly classified as materials ageing, we point to stress corrosion cracking and cement setting as opportunities for atomistic modeling and simulations.

Dynamic assessment of urban economy-environment-energy system using system dynamics model: A case study in Beijing.

PubMed

Wu, Desheng; Ning, Shuang

2018-07-01

Economic development, accompanying with environmental damage and energy depletion, becomes essential nowadays. There is a complicated and comprehensive interaction between economics, environment and energy. Understanding the operating mechanism of Energy-Environment-Economy model (3E) and its key factors is the inherent part in dealing with the issue. In this paper, we combine System Dynamics model and Geographic Information System to analyze the energy-environment-economy (3E) system both temporally and spatially, which explicitly explore the interaction of economics, energy, and environment and effects of the key influencing factors. Beijing is selected as a case study to verify our SD-GIS model. Alternative scenarios, e.g., current, technology, energy and environment scenarios are explored and compared. Simulation results shows that, current scenario is not sustainable; technology scenario is applicable to economic growth; environment scenario maintains a balanced path of development for long term stability. Policy-making insights are given based on our results and analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Coherent-fields, their responsive colloids, and life's origins.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra-Delmotte, G.; Mitra, A. N.

2015-10-01

In living systems, evolvable sequence-encoded constraints control the incoming energy-matter flows, and are also sustained by their embedded flows/ processes. What's more, in such dynamic-organized liquid-state media, the flows can also produce novel materials/mechanisms. Thus, embedded processes of such media enable its spatiotemporal resilience via turnovers, as well as functional 'takeovers'. Further, the responsiveness of such constrained media to their environment enables adaptations, as they can mediate feedback between the changing environment & their embedded flows/processes. Now, the complexity of the constituent functional materials, make it very likely that they themselves emerged/got selected thanks to the creative properties of such dynamically constrained media. We have asked if such Maxwelldemon- like scenario could not be mimicked using other plausible ingredients to achieve similar ways of dissipative sustenance and coherent functioning. In particular, the potential of organizing coherent fields and their responsive anisotropic colloids to enhance the probability of life's emergence—akin to an adaptive transition—to a new way of evolving, seems promising. Note that pattern-sustenance in liquid state requires presence of the specific source that enabled it (c.f. spontaneously formed patterns). For example, external coherent heterogeneous fields (e.g. magnetic rocks) can act as sources both of 1) aperiodic information, and 2) useful energy, for inducing and sustaining (specific) structures of superparamagnetic mineral colloids (via their Brownianrotation) away-from-equilibrium, to access 3-way coupling between energy-information-matter in liquid-medium. Such dynamic functioning structures seem ideal for stable containment of bottom-up chemical systems; and similar scenario in the nanoscience engineering area can help in design/tests.

On the protein crystal formation as an interface-controlled process with prototype ion-channeling effect.

PubMed

Siódmiak, Jacek; Uher, Jan J; Santamaría-Holek, Ivan; Kruszewska, Natalia; Gadomski, Adam

2007-08-01

A superdiffusive random-walk action in the depletion zone around a growing protein crystal is considered. It stands for a dynamic boundary condition of the growth process and competes steadily with a quasistatic, curvature-involving (thermodynamic) free boundary condition, both of them contributing to interpret the (mainly late-stage) growth process in terms of a prototype ion-channeling effect. An overall diffusion function contains quantitative signatures of both boundary conditions mentioned and indicates whether the new phase grows as an orderly phase or a converse scenario occurs. This situation can be treated in a quite versatile way both numerically and analytically, within a generalized Smoluchowski framework. This study can help in (1) elucidating some dynamic puzzles of a complex crystal formation vs biomolecular aggregation, also those concerning ion-channel formation, and (2) seeing how ion-channel-type dynamics of non-Markovian nature may set properly the pace of model (dis)ordered protein aggregation.

Development of High Fidelity Mobility Simulation of an Autonomous Vehicle in an Off-Road Scenario Using Integrated Sensor, Controller, and Multi-Body Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

VEHICLE IN AN OFF-ROAD SCENARIO USING INTEGRATED SENSOR, CONTROLLER, AND MULTI-BODY DYNAMICS Paramsothy Jayakumar , PhD William Smith US Army...environment for a control system, mechanical system dynamics , and sensor simulation for an improved assessment of the vehicle system performance...improve vehicle dynamic performance; we must also evaluate and improve the sensor suite employed on the vehicle, and the controller used to operate

Simulating Large-Scale Earthquake Dynamic Rupture Scenarios On Natural Fault Zones Using the ADER-DG Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, Alice; Pelties, Christian

2014-05-01

In this presentation we will demonstrate the benefits of using modern numerical methods to support physic-based ground motion modeling and research. For this purpose, we utilize SeisSol an arbitrary high-order derivative Discontinuous Galerkin (ADER-DG) scheme to solve the spontaneous rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time using three-dimensional unstructured tetrahedral meshes. We recently verified the method in various advanced test cases of the 'SCEC/USGS Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Code Verification Exercise' benchmark suite, including branching and dipping fault systems, heterogeneous background stresses, bi-material faults and rate-and-state friction constitutive formulations. Now, we study the dynamic rupture process using 3D meshes of fault systems constructed from geological and geophysical constraints, such as high-resolution topography, 3D velocity models and fault geometries. Our starting point is a large scale earthquake dynamic rupture scenario based on the 1994 Northridge blind thrust event in Southern California. Starting from this well documented and extensively studied event, we intend to understand the ground-motion, including the relevant high frequency content, generated from complex fault systems and its variation arising from various physical constraints. For example, our results imply that the Northridge fault geometry favors a pulse-like rupture behavior.

Secure Hashing of Dynamic Hand Signatures Using Wavelet-Fourier Compression with BioPhasor Mixing and [InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.] Discretization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wai Kuan, Yip; Teoh, Andrew B. J.; Ngo, David C. L.

2006-12-01

We introduce a novel method for secure computation of biometric hash on dynamic hand signatures using BioPhasor mixing and[InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.] discretization. The use of BioPhasor as the mixing process provides a one-way transformation that precludes exact recovery of the biometric vector from compromised hashes and stolen tokens. In addition, our user-specific[InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.] discretization acts both as an error correction step as well as a real-to-binary space converter. We also propose a new method of extracting compressed representation of dynamic hand signatures using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and discrete fourier transform (DFT). Without the conventional use of dynamic time warping, the proposed method avoids storage of user's hand signature template. This is an important consideration for protecting the privacy of the biometric owner. Our results show that the proposed method could produce stable and distinguishable bit strings with equal error rates (EERs) of[InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.] and[InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.] for random and skilled forgeries for stolen token (worst case) scenario, and[InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.] for both forgeries in the genuine token (optimal) scenario.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufresne, J.-L.; Foujols, M.-A.; Denvil, S.; Caubel, A.; Marti, O.; Aumont, O.; Balkanski, Y.; Bekki, S.; Bellenger, H.; Benshila, R.; Bony, S.; Bopp, L.; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Cheruy, F.; Codron, F.; Cozic, A.; Cugnet, D.; de Noblet, N.; Duvel, J.-P.; Ethé, C.; Fairhead, L.; Fichefet, T.; Flavoni, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Grandpeix, J.-Y.; Guez, L.; Guilyardi, E.; Hauglustaine, D.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Ghattas, J.; Joussaume, S.; Kageyama, M.; Krinner, G.; Labetoulle, S.; Lahellec, A.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Lefevre, F.; Levy, C.; Li, Z. X.; Lloyd, J.; Lott, F.; Madec, G.; Mancip, M.; Marchand, M.; Masson, S.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Mignot, J.; Musat, I.; Parouty, S.; Polcher, J.; Rio, C.; Schulz, M.; Swingedouw, D.; Szopa, S.; Talandier, C.; Terray, P.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.

2013-05-01

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Integrated Modeling and Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.; Brewington, L.

2014-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui, Hawaii, has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for adequate future freshwater resources requires flexible and adaptive policies that emphasize partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. In 2012 the Hawai'i state legislature passed the Climate Change Adaptation Priority Guidelines (Act 286) law requiring county and state policy makers to include island-wide climate change scenarios in their planning processes. This research details the ongoing work by researchers in the NOAA funded Pacific RISA to support the development of Hawaii's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. This integrated project combines several models with participatory future scenario planning. The dynamically downscaled triply nested Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) was modified from the WRF community model and calibrated to simulate the many microclimates on the Hawaiian archipelago. For the island of Maui, the HRCM was validated using 20 years of hindcast data, and daily projections were created at a 1 km scale to capture the steep topography and diverse rainfall regimes. Downscaled climate data are input into a USGS hydrological model to quantify groundwater recharge. This model was previously used for groundwater management, and is being expanded utilizing future climate projections, current land use maps and future scenario maps informed by stakeholder input. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of over 50 decision-makers in government, conservation, and agriculture to 1) determine the type of information they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of scenarios that represent alternative climate/management futures. This is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives at multiple scales. The resulting climate, land use, and groundwater recharge maps give stakeholders a common set of future scenarios that they understand through the participatory scenario process, and identify the vulnerabilities, trade-offs, and adaptive priorities for different groundwater management and land uses in an uncertain future.

Modelling interactions between mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reusser, D. E.; Siabatto, F. A. P.; Garcia Cantu Ros, A.; Pape, C.; Lissner, T.; Kropp, J. P.

2012-04-01

Managing the interdependence of climate mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development requires a good understanding of the dominant socioecological processes that have determined the pathways in the past. Key variables include water and food availability which depend on climate and overall ecosystem services, as well as energy supply and social, political and economic conditions. We present our initial steps to build a system dynamic model of nations that represents a minimal set of relevant variables of the socio- ecological development. The ultimate goal of the modelling exercise is to derive possible future scenarios and test those for their compatibility with sustainability boundaries. Where dynamics go beyond sustainability boundaries intervention points in the dynamics can be searched.

Chaos and unpredictability in evolution.

PubMed

Doebeli, Michael; Ispolatov, Iaroslav

2014-05-01

The possibility of complicated dynamic behavior driven by nonlinear feedbacks in dynamical systems has revolutionized science in the latter part of the last century. Yet despite examples of complicated frequency dynamics, the possibility of long-term evolutionary chaos is rarely considered. The concept of "survival of the fittest" is central to much evolutionary thinking and embodies a perspective of evolution as a directional optimization process exhibiting simple, predictable dynamics. This perspective is adequate for simple scenarios, when frequency-independent selection acts on scalar phenotypes. However, in most organisms many phenotypic properties combine in complicated ways to determine ecological interactions, and hence frequency-dependent selection. Therefore, it is natural to consider models for evolutionary dynamics generated by frequency-dependent selection acting simultaneously on many different phenotypes. Here we show that complicated, chaotic dynamics of long-term evolutionary trajectories in phenotype space is very common in a large class of such models when the dimension of phenotype space is large, and when there are selective interactions between the phenotypic components. Our results suggest that the perspective of evolution as a process with simple, predictable dynamics covers only a small fragment of long-term evolution. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

When anticipation beats accuracy: Threat alters memory for dynamic scenes.

PubMed

Greenstein, Michael; Franklin, Nancy; Martins, Mariana; Sewack, Christine; Meier, Markus A

2016-05-01

Threat frequently leads to the prioritization of survival-relevant processes. Much of the work examining threat-related processing advantages has focused on the detection of static threats or long-term memory for details. In the present study, we examined immediate memory for dynamic threatening situations. We presented participants with visually neutral, dynamic stimuli using a representational momentum (RM) paradigm, and manipulated threat conceptually. Although the participants in both the threatening and nonthreatening conditions produced classic RM effects, RM was stronger for scenarios involving threat (Exps. 1 and 2). Experiments 2 and 3 showed that this effect does not generalize to the nonthreatening objects within a threatening scene, and that it does not extend to arousing happy situations. Although the increased RM effect for threatening objects by definition reflects reduced accuracy, we argue that this reduced accuracy may be offset by a superior ability to predict, and thereby evade, a moving threat.

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics

PubMed Central

Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H.; Moore, Kara A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

2016-01-01

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species’ range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species’ response to climate change but also emphasise several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species. PMID:26872305

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.

PubMed

Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

2016-08-01

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamic optimization of ISR sensors using a risk-based reward function applied to ground and space surveillance scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeSena, J. T.; Martin, S. R.; Clarke, J. C.; Dutrow, D. A.; Newman, A. J.

2012-06-01

As the number and diversity of sensing assets available for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations continues to expand, the limited ability of human operators to effectively manage, control and exploit the ISR ensemble is exceeded, leading to reduced operational effectiveness. Automated support both in the processing of voluminous sensor data and sensor asset control can relieve the burden of human operators to support operation of larger ISR ensembles. In dynamic environments it is essential to react quickly to current information to avoid stale, sub-optimal plans. Our approach is to apply the principles of feedback control to ISR operations, "closing the loop" from the sensor collections through automated processing to ISR asset control. Previous work by the authors demonstrated non-myopic multiple platform trajectory control using a receding horizon controller in a closed feedback loop with a multiple hypothesis tracker applied to multi-target search and track simulation scenarios in the ground and space domains. This paper presents extensions in both size and scope of the previous work, demonstrating closed-loop control, involving both platform routing and sensor pointing, of a multisensor, multi-platform ISR ensemble tasked with providing situational awareness and performing search, track and classification of multiple moving ground targets in irregular warfare scenarios. The closed-loop ISR system is fullyrealized using distributed, asynchronous components that communicate over a network. The closed-loop ISR system has been exercised via a networked simulation test bed against a scenario in the Afghanistan theater implemented using high-fidelity terrain and imagery data. In addition, the system has been applied to space surveillance scenarios requiring tracking of space objects where current deliberative, manually intensive processes for managing sensor assets are insufficiently responsive. Simulation experiment results are presented. The algorithm to jointly optimize sensor schedules against search, track, and classify is based on recent work by Papageorgiou and Raykin on risk-based sensor management. It uses a risk-based objective function and attempts to minimize and balance the risks of misclassifying and losing track on an object. It supports the requirement to generate tasking for metric and feature data concurrently and synergistically, and account for both tracking accuracy and object characterization, jointly, in computing reward and cost for optimizing tasking decisions.

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fan, Zhaosheng; McGuire, Anthony David; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Waddington, James Michael; Kane, Evan S.

2013-01-01

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO2 and CH4 could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process-based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS-TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005–2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water-table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO2 emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.

An integrated system dynamics model developed for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale.

PubMed

Liu, Hui; Benoit, Gaboury; Liu, Tao; Liu, Yong; Guo, Huaicheng

2015-05-15

A reliable system simulation to relate socioeconomic development with water environment and to comprehensively represent a watershed's dynamic features is important. In this study, after identifying lake watershed system processes, we developed a system dynamics modeling framework for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale. Two reinforcing loops (Development and Investment Promotion) and three balancing loops (Pollution, Resource Consumption, and Pollution Control) were constituted. Based on this work, we constructed Stock and Flow Diagrams that embedded a pollutant load model and a lake water quality model into a socioeconomic system dynamics model. The Dianchi Lake in Yunnan Province, China, which is the sixth largest and among the most severely polluted freshwater lakes in China, was employed as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Water quality parameters considered in the model included chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP). The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and three alternative management scenarios on spatial adjustment of industries and population (S1), wastewater treatment capacity construction (S2), and structural adjustment of agriculture (S3), were simulated to assess the effectiveness of certain policies in improving water quality. Results showed that S2 is most effective scenario, and the COD, TN, and TP concentrations in Caohai in 2030 are 52.5, 10.9, and 0.8 mg/L, while those in Waihai are 9.6, 1.2, and 0.08 mg/L, with sustained development in the watershed. Thus, the model can help support the decision making required in development and environmental protection strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agent-based modeling of endotoxin-induced acute inflammatory response in human blood leukocytes.

PubMed

Dong, Xu; Foteinou, Panagiota T; Calvano, Steven E; Lowry, Stephen F; Androulakis, Ioannis P

2010-02-18

Inflammation is a highly complex biological response evoked by many stimuli. A persistent challenge in modeling this dynamic process has been the (nonlinear) nature of the response that precludes the single-variable assumption. Systems-based approaches offer a promising possibility for understanding inflammation in its homeostatic context. In order to study the underlying complexity of the acute inflammatory response, an agent-based framework is developed that models the emerging host response as the outcome of orchestrated interactions associated with intricate signaling cascades and intercellular immune system interactions. An agent-based modeling (ABM) framework is proposed to study the nonlinear dynamics of acute human inflammation. The model is implemented using NetLogo software. Interacting agents involve either inflammation-specific molecules or cells essential for the propagation of the inflammatory reaction across the system. Spatial orientation of molecule interactions involved in signaling cascades coupled with the cellular heterogeneity are further taken into account. The proposed in silico model is evaluated through its ability to successfully reproduce a self-limited inflammatory response as well as a series of scenarios indicative of the nonlinear dynamics of the response. Such scenarios involve either a persistent (non)infectious response or innate immune tolerance and potentiation effects followed by perturbations in intracellular signaling molecules and cascades. The ABM framework developed in this study provides insight on the stochastic interactions of the mediators involved in the propagation of endotoxin signaling at the cellular response level. The simulation results are in accordance with our prior research effort associated with the development of deterministic human inflammation models that include transcriptional dynamics, signaling, and physiological components. The hypothetical scenarios explored in this study would potentially improve our understanding of how manipulating the behavior of the molecular species could manifest into emergent behavior of the overall system.

Dynamic modeling of human thermal comfort after the transition from an indoor to an outdoor hot environment.

PubMed

Katavoutas, George; Flocas, Helena A; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-02-01

Thermal comfort under non-steady-state conditions primarily deals with rapid environmental transients and significant alterations of the meteorological conditions, activity, or clothing pattern within the time scale of some minutes. In such cases, thermal history plays an important role in respect to time, and thus, a dynamic approach is appropriate. The present study aims to investigate the dynamic thermal adaptation process of a human individual, after his transition from a typical indoor climate to an outdoor hot environment. Three scenarios of thermal transients have been considered for a range of hot outdoor environmental conditions, employing the dynamic two-node IMEM model. The differences among them concern the radiation field, the activity level, and the body position. The temporal pattern of body temperatures as well as the range of skin wettedness and of water loss have been investigated and compared among the scenarios and the environmental conditions considered. The structure and the temporal course of human energy fluxes as well as the identification of the contribution of body temperatures to energy fluxes have also been studied and compared. In general, the simulation results indicate that the response of a person, coming from the same neutral indoor climate, varies depending on the scenario followed by the individual while being outdoors. The combination of radiation field (shade or not) with the kind of activity (sitting or walking) and the outdoor conditions differentiates significantly the thermal state of the human body. Therefore, 75% of the skin wettedness values do not exceed the thermal comfort limit at rest for a sitting individual under the shade. This percentage decreases dramatically, less than 25%, under direct solar radiation and exceeds 75% for a walking person under direct solar radiation.

Visualizing Sea Level Rise with Augmented Reality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kintisch, E. S.

2013-12-01

Looking Glass is an application on the iPhone that visualizes in 3-D future scenarios of sea level rise, overlaid on live camera imagery in situ. Using a technology known as augmented reality, the app allows a layperson user to explore various scenarios of sea level rise using a visual interface. Then the user can see, in an immersive, dynamic way, how those scenarios would affect a real place. The first part of the experience activates users' cognitive, quantitative thinking process, teaching them how global sea level rise, tides and storm surge contribute to flooding; the second allows an emotional response to a striking visual depiction of possible future catastrophe. This project represents a partnership between a science journalist, MIT, and the Rhode Island School of Design, and the talk will touch on lessons this projects provides on structuring and executing such multidisciplinary efforts on future design projects.

Precomputing Process Noise Covariance for Onboard Sequential Filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Corwin G.; Russell, Ryan P.; Carpenter, J. Russell

2017-01-01

Process noise is often used in estimation filters to account for unmodeled and mismodeled accelerations in the dynamics. The process noise covariance acts to inflate the state covariance over propagation intervals, increasing the uncertainty in the state. In scenarios where the acceleration errors change significantly over time, the standard process noise covariance approach can fail to provide effective representation of the state and its uncertainty. Consider covariance analysis techniques provide a method to precompute a process noise covariance profile along a reference trajectory using known model parameter uncertainties. The process noise covariance profile allows significantly improved state estimation and uncertainty representation over the traditional formulation. As a result, estimation performance on par with the consider filter is achieved for trajectories near the reference trajectory without the additional computational cost of the consider filter. The new formulation also has the potential to significantly reduce the trial-and-error tuning currently required of navigation analysts. A linear estimation problem as described in several previous consider covariance analysis studies is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the precomputed process noise covariance, as well as a nonlinear descent scenario at the asteroid Bennu with optical navigation.

Precomputing Process Noise Covariance for Onboard Sequential Filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, Corwin G.; Russell, Ryan P.; Carpenter, J. Russell

2017-01-01

Process noise is often used in estimation filters to account for unmodeled and mismodeled accelerations in the dynamics. The process noise covariance acts to inflate the state covariance over propagation intervals, increasing the uncertainty in the state. In scenarios where the acceleration errors change significantly over time, the standard process noise covariance approach can fail to provide effective representation of the state and its uncertainty. Consider covariance analysis techniques provide a method to precompute a process noise covariance profile along a reference trajectory, using known model parameter uncertainties. The process noise covariance profile allows significantly improved state estimation and uncertainty representation over the traditional formulation. As a result, estimation performance on par with the consider filter is achieved for trajectories near the reference trajectory without the additional computational cost of the consider filter. The new formulation also has the potential to significantly reduce the trial-and-error tuning currently required of navigation analysts. A linear estimation problem as described in several previous consider covariance analysis publications is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the precomputed process noise covariance, as well as a nonlinear descent scenario at the asteroid Bennu with optical navigation.

Objective comparison of particle tracking methods

PubMed Central

Chenouard, Nicolas; Smal, Ihor; de Chaumont, Fabrice; Maška, Martin; Sbalzarini, Ivo F.; Gong, Yuanhao; Cardinale, Janick; Carthel, Craig; Coraluppi, Stefano; Winter, Mark; Cohen, Andrew R.; Godinez, William J.; Rohr, Karl; Kalaidzidis, Yannis; Liang, Liang; Duncan, James; Shen, Hongying; Xu, Yingke; Magnusson, Klas E. G.; Jaldén, Joakim; Blau, Helen M.; Paul-Gilloteaux, Perrine; Roudot, Philippe; Kervrann, Charles; Waharte, François; Tinevez, Jean-Yves; Shorte, Spencer L.; Willemse, Joost; Celler, Katherine; van Wezel, Gilles P.; Dan, Han-Wei; Tsai, Yuh-Show; de Solórzano, Carlos Ortiz; Olivo-Marin, Jean-Christophe; Meijering, Erik

2014-01-01

Particle tracking is of key importance for quantitative analysis of intracellular dynamic processes from time-lapse microscopy image data. Since manually detecting and following large numbers of individual particles is not feasible, automated computational methods have been developed for these tasks by many groups. Aiming to perform an objective comparison of methods, we gathered the community and organized, for the first time, an open competition, in which participating teams applied their own methods independently to a commonly defined data set including diverse scenarios. Performance was assessed using commonly defined measures. Although no single method performed best across all scenarios, the results revealed clear differences between the various approaches, leading to important practical conclusions for users and developers. PMID:24441936

Exclusion Process with Slow Boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldasso, Rangel; Menezes, Otávio; Neumann, Adriana; Souza, Rafael R.

2017-06-01

We study the hydrodynamic and the hydrostatic behavior of the simple symmetric exclusion process with slow boundary. The term slow boundary means that particles can be born or die at the boundary sites, at a rate proportional to N^{-θ }, where θ > 0 and N is the scaling parameter. In the bulk, the particles exchange rate is equal to 1. In the hydrostatic scenario, we obtain three different linear profiles, depending on the value of the parameter θ ; in the hydrodynamic scenario, we obtain that the time evolution of the spatial density of particles, in the diffusive scaling, is given by the weak solution of the heat equation, with boundary conditions that depend on θ . If θ \\in (0,1), we get Dirichlet boundary conditions, (which is the same behavior if θ =0, see Farfán in Hydrostatics, statical and dynamical large deviations of boundary driven gradient symmetric exclusion processes, 2008); if θ =1, we get Robin boundary conditions; and, if θ \\in (1,∞), we get Neumann boundary conditions.

Signal detection via residence-time asymmetry in noisy bistable devices.

PubMed

Bulsara, A R; Seberino, C; Gammaitoni, L; Karlsson, M F; Lundqvist, B; Robinson, J W C

2003-01-01

We introduce a dynamical readout description for a wide class of nonlinear dynamic sensors operating in a noisy environment. The presence of weak unknown signals is assessed via the monitoring of the residence time in the metastable attractors of the system, in the presence of a known, usually time-periodic, bias signal. This operational scenario can mitigate the effects of sensor noise, providing a greatly simplified readout scheme, as well as significantly reduced processing procedures. Such devices can also show a wide variety of interesting dynamical features. This scheme for quantifying the response of a nonlinear dynamic device has been implemented in experiments involving a simple laboratory version of a fluxgate magnetometer. We present the results of the experiments and demonstrate that they match the theoretical predictions reasonably well.

Multi-GNSS high-rate RTK, PPP and novel direct phase observation processing method: application to precise dynamic displacement detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paziewski, Jacek; Sieradzki, Rafal; Baryla, Radoslaw

2018-03-01

This paper provides the methodology and performance assessment of multi-GNSS signal processing for the detection of small-scale high-rate dynamic displacements. For this purpose, we used methods of relative (RTK) and absolute positioning (PPP), and a novel direct signal processing approach. The first two methods are recognized as providing accurate information on position in many navigation and surveying applications. The latter is an innovative method for dynamic displacement determination with the use of GNSS phase signal processing. This method is based on the developed functional model with parametrized epoch-wise topocentric relative coordinates derived from filtered GNSS observations. Current regular kinematic PPP positioning, as well as medium/long range RTK, may not offer coordinate estimates with subcentimeter precision. Thus, extended processing strategies of absolute and relative GNSS positioning have been developed and applied for displacement detection. The study also aimed to comparatively analyze the developed methods as well as to analyze the impact of combined GPS and BDS processing and the dependence of the results of the relative methods on the baseline length. All the methods were implemented with in-house developed software allowing for high-rate precise GNSS positioning and signal processing. The phase and pseudorange observations collected with a rate of 50 Hz during the field test served as the experiment’s data set. The displacements at the rover station were triggered in the horizontal plane using a device which was designed and constructed to ensure a periodic motion of GNSS antenna with an amplitude of ~3 cm and a frequency of ~4.5 Hz. Finally, a medium range RTK, PPP, and direct phase observation processing method demonstrated the capability of providing reliable and consistent results with the precision of the determined dynamic displacements at the millimeter level. Specifically, the research shows that the standard deviation of the displacement residuals obtained as the difference between a benchmark-ultra-short baseline RTK solution and selected scenarios ranged between 1.1 and 3.4 mm. At the same time, the differences in the mean amplitude of the oscillations derived from the established scenarios did not exceed 1.3 mm, whereas the frequency of the motion detected with the use of Fourier transformation was the same.

Adapting a scenario tree model for freedom from disease as surveillance progresses: the Canadian notifiable avian influenza model.

PubMed

Christensen, Jette; El Allaki, Farouk; Vallières, André

2014-05-01

Scenario tree models with temporal discounting have been applied in four continents to support claims of freedom from animal disease. Recently, a second (new) model was developed for the same population and disease. This is a natural development because surveillance is a dynamic process that needs to adapt to changing circumstances - the difficulty is the justification for, documentation of, presentation of and the acceptance of the changes. Our objective was to propose a systematic approach to present changes to an existing scenario tree model for freedom from disease. We used the example of how we adapted the deterministic Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza scenario tree model published in 2011 to a stochastic scenario tree model where the definition of sub-populations and the estimation of probability of introduction of the pathogen were modified. We found that the standardized approach by Vanderstichel et al. (2013) with modifications provided a systematic approach to make and present changes to an existing scenario tree model. We believe that the new 2013 CanNAISS scenario tree model is a better model than the 2011 model because the 2013 model included more surveillance data. In particular, the new data on Notifiable Avian Influenza in Canada from the last 5 years were used to improve input parameters and model structure. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Co-benefits of Domestic and Foreign GHG Mitigation on US Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Bowden, J.; Adelman, Z.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; West, J. J.

2013-12-01

Authors: Yuqiang Zhang1, Jared Bowden2 , Zachariah Adelman1,2, Vaishali Naik3, Larry W. Horowitz4 , J. Jason West1 1 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 2 Institute for the Environment, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 3 UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540 4 NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540 Abstract: Actions to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will reduce co-emitted air pollutants, which can immediately affect air quality; slowing climate change through GHG mitigation also influences air quality in the long term. We previously used a global model (MOZART-4) to show that global GHG mitigation will have significant co-benefits for air quality and human health. In doing so, we contrasted the Representative Concentration Pathway Scenario 4.5 (RCP4.5), treated as a GHG mitigation scenario, with its associated reference case scenario (REF). Using these same scenarios, we investigate here the air quality co-benefits due to domestic GHGs mitigation in the US alone at fine resolution, and compare these co-benefits with those resulting from foreign GHG mitigation. This work focuses on downscaling the meteorology and air pollutant chemistry to the US scale. We use the latest Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a Regional Climate Model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GFDL AM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) over the US at 36 km resolution, in 2000 and 2050. The 2000 simulation will be compared with the multi-year surface observation data, satellite data, and all simulations with the GCM simulation. These simulations will be used as inputs for the newest Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. Initial conditions (IC) and dynamic boundary conditions (BC) for CMAQ will be derived from the global MOZART-4 simulations. Anthropogenic emissions for the REF and RCP4.5 scenarios will be processed through SMOKE to prepare temporally- and spatially-resolved emission files. We will evaluate the co-benefits of GHG mitigation by changing the meteorological and air pollutant emissions inputs for RCP4.5 and REF, as well as the fixed methane level, and will separate the co-benefits of domestic vs. foreign GHG mitigation by using RCP4.5 emissions in the US only, but REF boundary conditions and REF emissions elsewhere.

System Dynamics based Dengue modeling environment to simulate evolution of Dengue infection under different climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anwar, R.; Khan, R.; Usmani, M.; Colwell, R. R.; Jutla, A.

2017-12-01

Vector borne infectious diseases such as Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya remain a public health threat. An estimate of the World Health Organization (WHO) suggests that about 2.5 billion people, representing ca. 40% of human population,are at increased risk of dengue; with more than 100 million infection cases every year. Vector-borne infections cannot be eradicated since disease causing pathogens survive in the environment. Over the last few decades dengue infection has been reported in more than 100 countries and is expanding geographically. Female Ae. Aegypti mosquito, the daytime active and a major vector for dengue virus, is associated with urban population density and regional climatic processes. However, mathematical quantification of relationships on abundance of vectors and climatic processes remain a challenge, particularly in regions where such data are not routinely collected. Here, using system dynamics based feedback mechanism, an algorithm integrating knowledge from entomological, meteorological and epidemiological processes is developed that has potential to provide ensemble simulations on risk of occurrence of dengue infection in human population. Using dataset from satellite remote sensing, the algorithm was calibrated and validated using actual dengue case data of Iquitos, Peru. We will show results on model capabilities in capturing initiation and peak in the observed time series. In addition, results from several simulation scenarios under different climatic conditions will be discussed.

Scalable Cloning on Large-Scale GPU Platforms with Application to Time-Stepped Simulations on Grids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoginath, Srikanth B.; Perumalla, Kalyan S.

Cloning is a technique to efficiently simulate a tree of multiple what-if scenarios that are unraveled during the course of a base simulation. However, cloned execution is highly challenging to realize on large, distributed memory computing platforms, due to the dynamic nature of the computational load across clones, and due to the complex dependencies spanning the clone tree. In this paper, we present the conceptual simulation framework, algorithmic foundations, and runtime interface of CloneX, a new system we designed for scalable simulation cloning. It efficiently and dynamically creates whole logical copies of a dynamic tree of simulations across a largemore » parallel system without full physical duplication of computation and memory. The performance of a prototype implementation executed on up to 1,024 graphical processing units of a supercomputing system has been evaluated with three benchmarks—heat diffusion, forest fire, and disease propagation models—delivering a speed up of over two orders of magnitude compared to replicated runs. Finally, the results demonstrate a significantly faster and scalable way to execute many what-if scenario ensembles of large simulations via cloning using the CloneX interface.« less

Scalable Cloning on Large-Scale GPU Platforms with Application to Time-Stepped Simulations on Grids

DOE PAGES

Yoginath, Srikanth B.; Perumalla, Kalyan S.

2018-01-31

Cloning is a technique to efficiently simulate a tree of multiple what-if scenarios that are unraveled during the course of a base simulation. However, cloned execution is highly challenging to realize on large, distributed memory computing platforms, due to the dynamic nature of the computational load across clones, and due to the complex dependencies spanning the clone tree. In this paper, we present the conceptual simulation framework, algorithmic foundations, and runtime interface of CloneX, a new system we designed for scalable simulation cloning. It efficiently and dynamically creates whole logical copies of a dynamic tree of simulations across a largemore » parallel system without full physical duplication of computation and memory. The performance of a prototype implementation executed on up to 1,024 graphical processing units of a supercomputing system has been evaluated with three benchmarks—heat diffusion, forest fire, and disease propagation models—delivering a speed up of over two orders of magnitude compared to replicated runs. Finally, the results demonstrate a significantly faster and scalable way to execute many what-if scenario ensembles of large simulations via cloning using the CloneX interface.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Danilovic, S.; Solanki, S. K.; Barthol, P.

Ellerman Bombs are signatures of magnetic reconnection, which is an important physical process in the solar atmosphere. How and where they occur is a subject of debate. In this paper, we analyze Sunrise/IMaX data, along with 3D MHD simulations that aim to reproduce the exact scenario proposed for the formation of these features. Although the observed event seems to be more dynamic and violent than the simulated one, simulations clearly confirm the basic scenario for the production of EBs. The simulations also reveal the full complexity of the underlying process. The simulated observations show that the Fe i 525.02 nm linemore » gives no information on the height where reconnection takes place. It can only give clues about the heating in the aftermath of the reconnection. However, the information on the magnetic field vector and velocity at this spatial resolution is extremely valuable because it shows what numerical models miss and how they can be improved.« less

Non-Markovian Complexity in the Quantum-to-Classical Transition

PubMed Central

Xiong, Heng-Na; Lo, Ping-Yuan; Zhang, Wei-Min; Feng, Da Hsuan; Nori, Franco

2015-01-01

The quantum-to-classical transition is due to environment-induced decoherence, and it depicts how classical dynamics emerges from quantum systems. Previously, the quantum-to-classical transition has mainly been described with memory-less (Markovian) quantum processes. Here we study the complexity of the quantum-to-classical transition through general non-Markovian memory processes. That is, the influence of various reservoirs results in a given initial quantum state evolving into one of the following four scenarios: thermal state, thermal-like state, quantum steady state, or oscillating quantum nonstationary state. In the latter two scenarios, the system maintains partial or full quantum coherence due to the strong non-Markovian memory effect, so that in these cases, the quantum-to-classical transition never occurs. This unexpected new feature provides a new avenue for the development of future quantum technologies because the remaining quantum oscillations in steady states are decoherence-free. PMID:26303002

Planetary formation and water delivery in the habitable zone around solar-type stars in different dynamical environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zain, P. S.; de Elía, G. C.; Ronco, M. P.; Guilera, O. M.

2018-01-01

Context. Observational and theoretical studies suggest that there are many and various planetary systems in the Universe. Aims: We study the formation and water delivery of planets in the habitable zone (HZ) around solar-type stars. In particular, we study different dynamical environments that are defined by the most massive body in the system. Methods: First of all, a semi-analytical model was used to define the mass of the protoplanetary disks that produce each of the five dynamical scenarios of our research. Then, we made use of the same semi-analytical model to describe the evolution of embryos and planetesimals during the gaseous phase. Finally, we carried out N-body simulations of planetary accretion in order to analyze the formation and water delivery of planets in the HZ in the different dynamical environments. Results: Water worlds are efficiently formed in the HZ in different dynamical scenarios. In systems with a giant planet analog to Jupiter or Saturn around the snow line, super-Earths tend to migrate into the HZ from outside the snow line as a result of interactions with other embryos and accrete water only during the gaseous phase. In systems without giant planets, Earths and super-Earths with high water by mass contents can either be formed in situ in the HZ or migrate into it from outer regions, and water can be accreted during the gaseous phase and in collisions with water-rich embryos and planetesimals. Conclusions: The formation of planets in the HZ with very high water by mass contents seems to be a common process around Sun-like stars. Our research suggests that such planets are still very efficiently produced in different dynamical environments. Moreover, our study indicates that the formation of planets in the HZ with masses and water contents similar to those of Earth seems to be a rare process around solar-type stars in the systems under consideration.

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment.

PubMed

Retèl, Valesca P; Joore, Manuela A; Linn, Sabine C; Rutgers, Emiel J T; van Harten, Wim H

2012-08-16

Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may reveal unanticipated developments and can demonstrate a range of possible cost-effectiveness outcomes. The effect of scenarios give additional information on the speed with cost effectiveness might be reached and thus provide a more realistic picture for policy makers, opinion leaders and manufacturers.

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of scenario drafting into a decision model may reveal unanticipated developments and can demonstrate a range of possible cost-effectiveness outcomes. The effect of scenarios give additional information on the speed with cost effectiveness might be reached and thus provide a more realistic picture for policy makers, opinion leaders and manufacturers. PMID:22894140

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008), the product-process distinction serves to highlight the unique characteristics and challenges of scenarios for global environmental change, including their use in large-scale official assessments, basis in biophysical modelling, weak connections to decision-makers, and roles as sites of public controversy. Parson argues that these characteristics of global environmental change scenarios prohibit process-oriented approaches, which rely on pre-identifying intended users and engaging them in the scenario development process. Instead, he proposes ways in which scenario products can be enhanced to support use by multiple, non-participant user communities. Wilkinson and Eidinow (2008) reach a different conclusion. They too identify the particular challenges of grappling with global environmental change. They examine approaches to past scenario efforts and categorize them into two groups that map loosely onto the product-process distinction: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric' approaches. They propose that progress in global environmental issues can best be made through a new, third type of approach ('reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based') that would combine elements of problem- and actor-focused approaches, creating scenario processes that can simultaneously support longer-term thinking as well as more immediate actions. Collectively, the papers in this issue range widely across issues associated with contemporary scenario processes and products. We can discern in them the outlines of an important set of suggestions for improving scenario development in the future, including, among others, the following: Focus scenario exercises on more specific questions so that results from multiple models can be more illuminating (O'Neill and Nakicenovic; Garb et al 2008). Enhance scenario transparency so as to enable extensions by users, rather than further expanding representation in global scenarios themselves (Parson 2008). Incorporate relatively simple measures (such as sub-national disaggregation of income distributions and climate change impacts) in order to boost the equity sensitivity of scenarios (Baer 2009). Recognize topics where social science inputs are becoming important for improving modelling and model relevance, such as providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, or developing measures of well-being which are independent of income levels, and include in global environmental scenario teams more representatives of social science professionals (Pitcher 2009; Garb et al 2008). Invest greater resources in assessing scenario results, and in understanding and overcoming the barriers to carrying out such assessment (Hulme and Dessai 2008; O'Neill and Nakicenovic, 2008). Disaggregate the variety of global change decision makers targeted as audiences for scenarios (Parson 2008; Garb et al 2008). Develop an additional 'reflective interventionist' scenarios approach that involves different epistemologies for active learning in the public interest (Wilkinson and Eidinow 2008). Draw on the extensive toolkit of social science research methods to analyze the social work of scenarios (Garb et al 2008). Create new institutions and scenario activities that can adapt and extend global scenarios to specific, often local or regional decision contexts (Parson 2008). Create fora in which scenario practitioners, modellers, decision-makers, and social scientists of various kinds can discuss the process of scenario construction and use (Garb et al 2008). We do not mean to imply a consensus among the participants in the Brown University workshop or of contributors to this collection of papers. At the same time, we believe that these and other insights and suggestions from these contributions do have a certain coherence, and collectively point to a deepening and reinvigoration of the environmental scenario-modelling enterprise—an enterprise now facing environmental change processes that are emerging as some of the most pressing challenges of our time. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the Global Environment Program at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University and the US Environmental Protection Agency for financially supporting publication of this focus issue. Focus on Global Environmental Scenarios Contents Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios? Mike Hulme and Suraje Dessai Learning from global emissions scenarios Brian C O'Neill and Nebojsa Nakicenovic Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling Yaakov Garb, Simone Pulver and Stacy D VanDeveer Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges E A Parson Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology Angela Wilkinson and Esther Eidinow Notes Note1 The workshop was held in March 2007, jointly sponsored by the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, and the US National Intelligence Council. See http://www.watsoninstitute.org/ge/scenarios/ for more information.

Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

2017-04-01

The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

Modeling hydrologic controls on sulfur processes in sulfate-impacted wetland and stream sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, G.-H. C.; Yourd, A. R.; Johnson, N. W.; Myrbo, A. E.

2017-09-01

Recent studies show sulfur redox processes in terrestrial settings are more important than previously considered, but much remains uncertain about how these processes respond to dynamic hydrologic conditions in natural field settings. We used field observations from a sulfate-impacted wetland and stream in the mining region of Minnesota (USA) to calibrate a reactive transport model and evaluate sulfur and coupled geochemical processes under contrasting hydrogeochemical scenarios. Simulations of different hydrological conditions showed that flux and chemistry differences between surface water and deeper groundwater strongly control hyporheic zone geochemical profiles. However, model results for the stream channel versus wetlands indicate sediment organic carbon content to be the more important driver of sulfate reduction rates. A complex nonlinear relationship between sulfate reduction rates and geochemical conditions is apparent from the model's higher sensitivity to sulfate concentrations in settings with higher organic content. Across all scenarios, simulated e- balance results unexpectedly showed that sulfate reduction dominates iron reduction, which is contrary to the traditional thermodynamic ladder but corroborates recent experimental findings by Hansel et al. (2015) that "cryptic" sulfur cycling could drive sulfate reduction in preference over iron reduction. Following the thermodynamic ladder, our models shows that high surface water sulfate slows methanogenesis in shallow sediments, but field observations suggest that sulfate reduction may not entirely suppress methane. Overall, our results show that sulfate reduction may serve as a major component making up and influencing terrestrial redox processes, with dynamic hyporheic fluxes controlling sulfate concentrations and reaction rates, especially in high organic content settings.

Pre-crash scenario typology for crash avoidance research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-04-01

This report defines a new pre-crash scenario typology for crash avoidance research based on the 2004 General Estimates System (GES) crash database, which consists of pre-crash scenarios depicting vehicle movements and dynamics as well as the critical...

Stress accumulation in the Marmara Sea estimated through ground-motion simulations from dynamic rupture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aochi, Hideo; Douglas, John; Ulrich, Thomas

2017-03-01

We compare ground motions simulated from dynamic rupture scenarios, for the seismic gap along the North Anatolian Fault under the Marmara Sea (Turkey), to estimates from empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Ground motions are simulated using a finite difference method and a 3-D model of the local crustal structure. They are analyzed at more than a thousand locations in terms of horizontal peak ground velocity. Characteristics of probable earthquake scenarios are strongly dependent on the hypothesized level of accumulated stress, in terms of a normalized stress parameter T. With respect to the GMPEs, it is found that simulations for many scenarios systematically overestimate the ground motions at all distances. Simulations for only some scenarios, corresponding to moderate stress accumulation, match the estimates from the GMPEs. The difference between the simulations and the GMPEs is used to quantify the relative probabilities of each scenario and, therefore, to revise the probability of the stress field. A magnitude Mw7+ operating at moderate prestress field (0.6 < T ≤ 0.7) is statistically more probable, as previously assumed in the logic tree of probabilistic assessment of rupture scenarios. This approach of revising the mechanical hypothesis by means of comparison to an empirical statistical model (e.g., a GMPE) is useful not only for practical seismic hazard assessments but also to understand crustal dynamics.

[Dynamic change of Pinus tabuliformis forest productivity and its response to future climate change in Shaanxi Province, China.

PubMed

Huo, Xiao Ying; Peng, Shou Zhang; Ren, Jing Yu; Cao, Yang; Chen, Yun Ming

2018-02-01

This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabuliformis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period, annual mean temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0.12, 0.23 and 0.54 ℃·10 a -1 under RCP 2.6 , RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the annual precipitation would have no significant change under climate scenarios except RCP 4.5 , under which it would significantly increase by 14.36 mm·10 a -1 . Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical period (1961-1990), it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period, and the enhancement could reach 45.4% at the end of this century (2071-2100) under RCP 8.5 scenario. The NPP under the RCP 8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios. During 2015-2100, the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of 41.00 and 21.00 g C·m -2 ·10 a -1 under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively, implying that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.

Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2013-09-01

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

PubMed

Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

2013-09-20

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

Testing Lithospheric versus Deep-Mantle Dynamics on Post-100 Ma Evolution of Western U.S. using Landscape Evolution Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, C.; Liu, L.

2017-12-01

Driving mechanisms of the topographic evolution of central-western North America from the Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway (WIS) to its present-day high elevation remain ellusive. Quantifying the effects of lithospheric deformation versus deep-mantle induced topography on the landscape evolution of the region is a key to better constraining the history of North American tectonics and mantle dynamics. One way to tackle this problem is through running landscape evolution simulation coupled with uplift histories characteristic to these tectonic processes. We then use available surface observations, e.g., sedimentation records, land erosion, and drainage evolution, to infer the likely lithospheric and mantle processes that formed the WIS, the subsequent Laramide orogeny, and the present-day high topography of central-western North America. In practice, we use BadLands to simulate the evolution of surface process. To validate a given uplift history, we quantitatively compare model predictions with onshore and offshore stratigraphy data from the literature. Furthermore, critical forcings of landscape evolution, such as climate, lithology and sea level, will also be examined to better attest the effects of different uplift scenarios. Preliminary results demonstrate that only with geographically migratory subsidence, as predicted by an inverse mantle convection model, can we re-produce large scale tilted strata and shifting sediment deposition observed in the WIS basins. Ongoing work will also look into styles of Cenozoic uplift events that ended the WIS and produced the landscape features today. Eventually, we hope to place new constraints on the evolution and properties of lithospheric and deep-mantle dynamics of North American and to locate the best-fit scenario of its coresponding surface evolution since 100 Ma.

Restoration of rhythmicity in diffusively coupled dynamical networks.

PubMed

Zou, Wei; Senthilkumar, D V; Nagao, Raphael; Kiss, István Z; Tang, Yang; Koseska, Aneta; Duan, Jinqiao; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-07-15

Oscillatory behaviour is essential for proper functioning of various physical and biological processes. However, diffusive coupling is capable of suppressing intrinsic oscillations due to the manifestation of the phenomena of amplitude and oscillation deaths. Here we present a scheme to revoke these quenching states in diffusively coupled dynamical networks, and demonstrate the approach in experiments with an oscillatory chemical reaction. By introducing a simple feedback factor in the diffusive coupling, we show that the stable (in)homogeneous steady states can be effectively destabilized to restore dynamic behaviours of coupled systems. Even a feeble deviation from the normal diffusive coupling drastically shrinks the death regions in the parameter space. The generality of our method is corroborated in diverse non-linear systems of diffusively coupled paradigmatic models with various death scenarios. Our study provides a general framework to strengthen the robustness of dynamic activity in diffusively coupled dynamical networks.

Modeling the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marceau, Vincent; Noël, Pierre-André; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Allard, Antoine; Dubé, Louis J.

2011-08-01

Epidemics seldom occur as isolated phenomena. Typically, two or more viral agents spread within the same host population and may interact dynamically with each other. We present a general model where two viral agents interact via an immunity mechanism as they propagate simultaneously on two networks connecting the same set of nodes. By exploiting a correspondence between the propagation dynamics and a dynamical process performing progressive network generation, we develop an analytical approach that accurately captures the dynamical interaction between epidemics on overlay networks. The formalism allows for overlay networks with arbitrary joint degree distribution and overlap. To illustrate the versatility of our approach, we consider a hypothetical delayed intervention scenario in which an immunizing agent is disseminated in a host population to hinder the propagation of an undesirable agent (e.g., the spread of preventive information in the context of an emerging infectious disease).

Development and Implementation of a Telecommuting Evaluation Framework, and Modeling the Executive Telecommuting Adoption Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vora, V. P.; Mahmassani, H. S.

2002-02-01

This work proposes and implements a comprehensive evaluation framework to document the telecommuter, organizational, and societal impacts of telecommuting through telecommuting programs. Evaluation processes and materials within the outlined framework are also proposed and implemented. As the first component of the evaluation process, the executive survey is administered within a public sector agency. The survey data is examined through exploratory analysis and is compared to a previous survey of private sector executives. The ordinal probit, dynamic probit, and dynamic generalized ordinal probit (DGOP) models of telecommuting adoption are calibrated to identify factors which significantly influence executive adoption preferences and to test the robustness of such factors. The public sector DGOP model of executive willingness to support telecommuting under different program scenarios is compared with an equivalent private sector DGOP model. Through the telecommuting program, a case study of telecommuting travel impacts is performed to further substantiate research.

Roles of Diffusion Dynamics in Stem Cell Signaling and Three-Dimensional Tissue Development.

PubMed

McMurtrey, Richard J

2017-09-15

Recent advancements in the ability to construct three-dimensional (3D) tissues and organoids from stem cells and biomaterials have not only opened abundant new research avenues in disease modeling and regenerative medicine but also have ignited investigation into important aspects of molecular diffusion in 3D cellular architectures. This article describes fundamental mechanics of diffusion with equations for modeling these dynamic processes under a variety of scenarios in 3D cellular tissue constructs. The effects of these diffusion processes and resultant concentration gradients are described in the context of the major molecular signaling pathways in stem cells that both mediate and are influenced by gas and nutrient concentrations, including how diffusion phenomena can affect stem cell state, cell differentiation, and metabolic states of the cell. The application of these diffusion models and pathways is of vital importance for future studies of developmental processes, disease modeling, and tissue regeneration.

Understanding Islamist political violence through computational social simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watkins, Jennifer H; Mackerrow, Edward P; Patelli, Paolo G

Understanding the process that enables political violence is of great value in reducing the future demand for and support of violent opposition groups. Methods are needed that allow alternative scenarios and counterfactuals to be scientifically researched. Computational social simulation shows promise in developing 'computer experiments' that would be unfeasible or unethical in the real world. Additionally, the process of modeling and simulation reveals and challenges assumptions that may not be noted in theories, exposes areas where data is not available, and provides a rigorous, repeatable, and transparent framework for analyzing the complex dynamics of political violence. This paper demonstrates themore » computational modeling process using two simulation techniques: system dynamics and agent-based modeling. The benefits and drawbacks of both techniques are discussed. In developing these social simulations, we discovered that the social science concepts and theories needed to accurately simulate the associated psychological and social phenomena were lacking.« less

Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

2018-04-01

Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

Toward an optimisation technique for dynamically monitored environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shurrab, Orabi M.

2016-10-01

The data fusion community has introduced multiple procedures of situational assessments; this is to facilitate timely responses to emerging situations. More directly, the process refinement of the Joint Directors of Laboratories (JDL) is a meta-process to assess and improve the data fusion task during real-time operation. In other wording, it is an optimisation technique to verify the overall data fusion performance, and enhance it toward the top goals of the decision-making resources. This paper discusses the theoretical concept of prioritisation. Where the analysts team is required to keep an up to date with the dynamically changing environment, concerning different domains such as air, sea, land, space and cyberspace. Furthermore, it demonstrates an illustration example of how various tracking activities are ranked, simultaneously into a predetermined order. Specifically, it presents a modelling scheme for a case study based scenario, where the real-time system is reporting different classes of prioritised events. Followed by a performance metrics for evaluating the prioritisation process of situational awareness (SWA) domain. The proposed performance metrics has been designed and evaluated using an analytical approach. The modelling scheme represents the situational awareness system outputs mathematically, in the form of a list of activities. Such methods allowed the evaluation process to conduct a rigorous analysis of the prioritisation process, despite any constrained related to a domain-specific configuration. After conducted three levels of assessments over three separates scenario, The Prioritisation Capability Score (PCS) has provided an appropriate scoring scheme for different ranking instances, Indeed, from the data fusion perspectives, the proposed metric has assessed real-time system performance adequately, and it is capable of conducting a verification process, to direct the operator's attention to any issue, concerning the prioritisation capability of situational awareness domain.

Testing "What If?" Scenarios: A Process Known as System Dynamics Allows Leaders to Try out an Initiative before Actually Implementing It

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brauer, Ralph A.

2004-01-01

One challenge of system leadership always has been that even with the best data and research in place, with all the programmatic and political dimensions under control and with years of experience handling similar decisions, you never really know whether a policy initiative will work until you implement it. That is why anyone who has been a school…

Characterization of Visual Scanning Patterns in Air Traffic Control

PubMed Central

McClung, Sarah N.; Kang, Ziho

2016-01-01

Characterization of air traffic controllers' (ATCs') visual scanning strategies is a challenging issue due to the dynamic movement of multiple aircraft and increasing complexity of scanpaths (order of eye fixations and saccades) over time. Additionally, terminologies and methods are lacking to accurately characterize the eye tracking data into simplified visual scanning strategies linguistically expressed by ATCs. As an intermediate step to automate the characterization classification process, we (1) defined and developed new concepts to systematically filter complex visual scanpaths into simpler and more manageable forms and (2) developed procedures to map visual scanpaths with linguistic inputs to reduce the human judgement bias during interrater agreement. The developed concepts and procedures were applied to investigating the visual scanpaths of expert ATCs using scenarios with different aircraft congestion levels. Furthermore, oculomotor trends were analyzed to identify the influence of aircraft congestion on scan time and number of comparisons among aircraft. The findings show that (1) the scanpaths filtered at the highest intensity led to more consistent mapping with the ATCs' linguistic inputs, (2) the pattern classification occurrences differed between scenarios, and (3) increasing aircraft congestion caused increased scan times and aircraft pairwise comparisons. The results provide a foundation for better characterizing complex scanpaths in a dynamic task and automating the analysis process. PMID:27239190

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cho, Youngho; Hur, Kyeon; Kang, Yong

This study investigates the emerging harmonic stability concerns to be addressed by grid planners in generation interconnection studies, owing to the increased adoption of renewable energy resources connected to the grid via power electronic converters. The wideband and high-frequency electromagnetic transient (EMT) characteristics of these converter-interfaced generators (CIGs) and their interaction with the grid impedance are not accurately captured in the typical dynamic studies conducted by grid planners. This paper thus identifies the desired components to be studied and subsequently develops a practical process for integrating a new CIG into a grid with the existing CIGs. The steps of thismore » process are as follows: the impedance equation of a CIG using its control dynamics and an interface filter to the grid, for example, an LCL filter (inductor-capacitor-inductor type), is developed; an equivalent impedance model including the existing CIGs nearby and the grid observed from the point of common coupling are derived; the system stability for credible operating scenarios is assessed. Detailed EMT simulations validate the accuracy of the impedance models and stability assessment for various connection scenarios. Here, by complementing the conventional EMT simulation studies, the proposed analytical approach enables grid planners to identify critical design parameters for seamlessly integrating a new CIG and ensuring the reliability of the grid.« less

Modelling dynamics with context-free grammars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Huerta, Juan-M.; Jiménez-Hernández, Hugo; Herrera-Navarro, Ana-M.; Hernández-Díaz, Teresa; Terol-Villalobos, Ivan

2014-03-01

This article presents a strategy to model the dynamics performed by vehicles in a freeway. The proposal consists on encode the movement as a set of finite states. A watershed-based segmentation is used to localize regions with high-probability of motion. Each state represents a proportion of a camera projection in a two-dimensional space, where each state is associated to a symbol, such that any combination of symbols is expressed as a language. Starting from a sequence of symbols through a linear algorithm a free-context grammar is inferred. This grammar represents a hierarchical view of common sequences observed into the scene. Most probable grammar rules express common rules associated to normal movement behavior. Less probable rules express themselves a way to quantify non-common behaviors and they might need more attention. Finally, all sequences of symbols that does not match with the grammar rules, may express itself uncommon behaviors (abnormal). The grammar inference is built with several sequences of images taken from a freeway. Testing process uses the sequence of symbols emitted by the scenario, matching the grammar rules with common freeway behaviors. The process of detect abnormal/normal behaviors is managed as the task of verify if any word generated by the scenario is recognized by the grammar.

Characterization of Visual Scanning Patterns in Air Traffic Control.

PubMed

McClung, Sarah N; Kang, Ziho

2016-01-01

Characterization of air traffic controllers' (ATCs') visual scanning strategies is a challenging issue due to the dynamic movement of multiple aircraft and increasing complexity of scanpaths (order of eye fixations and saccades) over time. Additionally, terminologies and methods are lacking to accurately characterize the eye tracking data into simplified visual scanning strategies linguistically expressed by ATCs. As an intermediate step to automate the characterization classification process, we (1) defined and developed new concepts to systematically filter complex visual scanpaths into simpler and more manageable forms and (2) developed procedures to map visual scanpaths with linguistic inputs to reduce the human judgement bias during interrater agreement. The developed concepts and procedures were applied to investigating the visual scanpaths of expert ATCs using scenarios with different aircraft congestion levels. Furthermore, oculomotor trends were analyzed to identify the influence of aircraft congestion on scan time and number of comparisons among aircraft. The findings show that (1) the scanpaths filtered at the highest intensity led to more consistent mapping with the ATCs' linguistic inputs, (2) the pattern classification occurrences differed between scenarios, and (3) increasing aircraft congestion caused increased scan times and aircraft pairwise comparisons. The results provide a foundation for better characterizing complex scanpaths in a dynamic task and automating the analysis process.

Complex Problem Solving in Teams: The Impact of Collective Orientation on Team Process Demands.

PubMed

Hagemann, Vera; Kluge, Annette

2017-01-01

Complex problem solving is challenging and a high-level cognitive process for individuals. When analyzing complex problem solving in teams, an additional, new dimension has to be considered, as teamwork processes increase the requirements already put on individual team members. After introducing an idealized teamwork process model, that complex problem solving teams pass through, and integrating the relevant teamwork skills for interdependently working teams into the model and combining it with the four kinds of team processes (transition, action, interpersonal, and learning processes), the paper demonstrates the importance of fulfilling team process demands for successful complex problem solving within teams. Therefore, results from a controlled team study within complex situations are presented. The study focused on factors that influence action processes, like coordination, such as emergent states like collective orientation, cohesion, and trust and that dynamically enable effective teamwork in complex situations. Before conducting the experiments, participants were divided by median split into two-person teams with either high ( n = 58) or low ( n = 58) collective orientation values. The study was conducted with the microworld C3Fire, simulating dynamic decision making, and acting in complex situations within a teamwork context. The microworld includes interdependent tasks such as extinguishing forest fires or protecting houses. Two firefighting scenarios had been developed, which takes a maximum of 15 min each. All teams worked on these two scenarios. Coordination within the team and the resulting team performance were calculated based on a log-file analysis. The results show that no relationships between trust and action processes and team performance exist. Likewise, no relationships were found for cohesion. Only collective orientation of team members positively influences team performance in complex environments mediated by action processes such as coordination within the team. The results are discussed in relation to previous empirical findings and to learning processes within the team with a focus on feedback strategies.

Complex Problem Solving in Teams: The Impact of Collective Orientation on Team Process Demands

PubMed Central

Hagemann, Vera; Kluge, Annette

2017-01-01

Complex problem solving is challenging and a high-level cognitive process for individuals. When analyzing complex problem solving in teams, an additional, new dimension has to be considered, as teamwork processes increase the requirements already put on individual team members. After introducing an idealized teamwork process model, that complex problem solving teams pass through, and integrating the relevant teamwork skills for interdependently working teams into the model and combining it with the four kinds of team processes (transition, action, interpersonal, and learning processes), the paper demonstrates the importance of fulfilling team process demands for successful complex problem solving within teams. Therefore, results from a controlled team study within complex situations are presented. The study focused on factors that influence action processes, like coordination, such as emergent states like collective orientation, cohesion, and trust and that dynamically enable effective teamwork in complex situations. Before conducting the experiments, participants were divided by median split into two-person teams with either high (n = 58) or low (n = 58) collective orientation values. The study was conducted with the microworld C3Fire, simulating dynamic decision making, and acting in complex situations within a teamwork context. The microworld includes interdependent tasks such as extinguishing forest fires or protecting houses. Two firefighting scenarios had been developed, which takes a maximum of 15 min each. All teams worked on these two scenarios. Coordination within the team and the resulting team performance were calculated based on a log-file analysis. The results show that no relationships between trust and action processes and team performance exist. Likewise, no relationships were found for cohesion. Only collective orientation of team members positively influences team performance in complex environments mediated by action processes such as coordination within the team. The results are discussed in relation to previous empirical findings and to learning processes within the team with a focus on feedback strategies. PMID:29033886

Dynamic image fusion and general observer preference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burks, Stephen D.; Doe, Joshua M.

2010-04-01

Recent developments in image fusion give the user community many options for ways of presenting the imagery to an end-user. Individuals at the US Army RDECOM CERDEC Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate have developed an electronic system that allows users to quickly and efficiently determine optimal image fusion algorithms and color parameters based upon collected imagery and videos from environments that are typical to observers in a military environment. After performing multiple multi-band data collections in a variety of military-like scenarios, different waveband, fusion algorithm, image post-processing, and color choices are presented to observers as an output of the fusion system. The observer preferences can give guidelines as to how specific scenarios should affect the presentation of fused imagery.

Adaptive grid based multi-objective Cauchy differential evolution for stochastic dynamic economic emission dispatch with wind power uncertainty

PubMed Central

Lei, Xiaohui; Wang, Chao; Yue, Dong; Xie, Xiangpeng

2017-01-01

Since wind power is integrated into the thermal power operation system, dynamic economic emission dispatch (DEED) has become a new challenge due to its uncertain characteristics. This paper proposes an adaptive grid based multi-objective Cauchy differential evolution (AGB-MOCDE) for solving stochastic DEED with wind power uncertainty. To properly deal with wind power uncertainty, some scenarios are generated to simulate those possible situations by dividing the uncertainty domain into different intervals, the probability of each interval can be calculated using the cumulative distribution function, and a stochastic DEED model can be formulated under different scenarios. For enhancing the optimization efficiency, Cauchy mutation operation is utilized to improve differential evolution by adjusting the population diversity during the population evolution process, and an adaptive grid is constructed for retaining diversity distribution of Pareto front. With consideration of large number of generated scenarios, the reduction mechanism is carried out to decrease the scenarios number with covariance relationships, which can greatly decrease the computational complexity. Moreover, the constraint-handling technique is also utilized to deal with the system load balance while considering transmission loss among thermal units and wind farms, all the constraint limits can be satisfied under the permitted accuracy. After the proposed method is simulated on three test systems, the obtained results reveal that in comparison with other alternatives, the proposed AGB-MOCDE can optimize the DEED problem while handling all constraint limits, and the optimal scheme of stochastic DEED can decrease the conservation of interval optimization, which can provide a more valuable optimal scheme for real-world applications. PMID:28961262

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

A laboratory experiment simulating the dynamics of topographic relief: methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crave, A.; Lague, D.; Davy, P.; Bonnet, S.; Laguionie, P.

2002-12-01

Theoretical analysis and numerical models of landscape evolution have advanced several scenarios for the long-term evolution of terrestrial topography. These scenarios require quantitative evaluation. Analyses of topography, sediment fluxes, and the physical mechanisms of erosion and sediment transport can provide some constraints on the range of plausible models. But in natural systems the boundary conditions (tectonic uplift, climate, base level) are often not well constrained and the spatial heterogeneity of substrate, climate, vegetation, and prevalent processes commonly confounds attempts at extrapolation of observations to longer timescales. In the laboratory, boundary conditions are known and heterogeneity and complexity can be controlled. An experimental approach can thus provide valuable constraints on the dynamics of geomorphic systems, provided that (1) the elementary processes are well calibrated and (2) the topography and sediment fluxes are sufficiently well documented. We have built an experimental setup of decimeter scale that is designed to develop a complete drainage network by the growth and propagation of erosion instabilities in response to tectonic and climatic perturbations. Uplift and precipitation rates can be changed over an order of magnitude. Telemetric lasers and 3D stereo-photography allow the precise quantification of the topographic evolution of the experimental surface. In order to calibrate the principal processes of erosion and transport we have used three approaches: (1) theoretical derivation of erosion laws deduced from the geometrical properties of experimental surfaces at steady-state under different rates of tectonic uplift; (2) comparison of the experimental transient dynamics with a numerical simulation model to test the validity of the predicted erosion laws; and (3) detailed analysis of particle detachment and transport in a millimeter sheet flow on a two-meter long flume under precisely controlled water discharge, slope and flow width. The analogy with real geomorphic systems is limited by the imperfect downscaling in both time and space of the experiments. However, these simple experiments have allowed us to probe (1) the importance of a threshold for particle mobilization to the relationship between steady-state elevation and uplift rate, (2) the role of initial drainage network organization in the transient dynamics of tectonically perturbed systems and (3) the sediment flux dynamics of climatically perturbed systems.

Spectrum-efficient multipath provisioning with content connectivity for the survivability of elastic optical datacenter networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Li, Xin; Guo, Bingli; Yin, Shan; Li, Wenzhe; Huang, Shanguo

2017-07-01

Multipath provisioning is a survivable and resource efficient solution against increasing link failures caused by natural or man-made disasters in elastic optical datacenter networks (EODNs). Nevertheless, the conventional multipath provisioning scheme is designed only for connecting a specific node pair. Also, it is obvious that the number of node-disjoint paths between any two nodes is restricted to network connectivity, which has a fixed value for a given topology. Recently, the concept of content connectivity in EODNs has been proposed, which guarantees that a user can be served by any datacenter hosting the required content regardless of where it is located. From this new perspective, we propose a survivable multipath provisioning with content connectivity (MPCC) scheme, which is expected to improve the spectrum efficiency and the whole system survivability. We formulate the MPCC scheme with Integer Linear Program (ILP) in static traffic scenario and a heuristic approach is proposed for dynamic traffic scenario. Furthermore, to adapt MPCC to the variation of network state in dynamic traffic scenario, we propose a dynamic content placement (DCP) strategy in the MPCC scheme for detecting the variation of the distribution of user requests and adjusting the content location dynamically. Simulation results indicate that the MPCC scheme can reduce over 20% spectrum consumption than conventional multipath provisioning scheme in static traffic scenario. And in dynamic traffic scenario, the MPCC scheme can reduce over 20% spectrum consumption and over 50% blocking probability than conventional multipath provisioning scheme. Meanwhile, benefiting from the DCP strategy, the MPCC scheme has a good adaption to the variation of the distribution of user requests.

Multiphase Dynamics of Magma Oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boukaré, Charles-Edouard; Ricard, Yanick; Parmentier, Edgar M.

2017-04-01

Since the earliest study of the Apollo lunar samples, the magma ocean hypothesis has received increasing consideration for explaining the early evolution of terrestrial planets. Giant impacts seem to be able to melt significantly large planets at the end of their accretion. The evolution of the resulting magma ocean would set the initial conditions (thermal and compositionnal structure) for subsequent long-term solid-state planet dynamics. However, magma ocean dynamics remains poorly understood. The major challenge relies on understanding interactions between the physical properties of materials (e.g., viscosity (at liquid or solid state), buoyancy) and the complex dynamics of an extremely vigorously convecting system. Such complexities might be neglected in cases where liquidus/adiabat interactions and density stratification leads to stable situations. However, interesting possibilities arise when exploring magma ocean dynamics in other regime. In the case of the Earth, recent studies have shown that the liquidus might intersect the adiabat at mid-mantle depth and/or that solids might be buoyant at deep mantle conditions. These results require the consideration of more sophisticated scenarios. For instance, how does bottom-up crystallization look with buoyant crystals? To understand this complex dynamics, we develop a multiphase phase numerical code that can handle simultaneously phase change, the convection in each phase and in the slurry, as well as the compaction or decompaction of the two phases. Although our code can only run in a limited parameter range (Rayleigh number, viscosity contrast between phases, Prandlt number), it provides a rich dynamics that illustrates what could have happened. For a given liquidus/adiabat configuration and density contrast between melt and solid, we explore magma ocean scenarios by varying the relative timescales of three first order processes: solid-liquid separation, thermo-chemical convective motions and magma ocean cooling.

Systematic exploration of efficient strategies to manage solid waste in U.S. municipalities: perspectives from the solid waste optimization life-cycle framework (SWOLF).

PubMed

Levis, James W; Barlaz, Morton A; Decarolis, Joseph F; Ranjithan, S Ranji

2014-04-01

Solid waste management (SWM) systems must proactively adapt to changing policy requirements, waste composition, and an evolving energy system to sustainably manage future solid waste. This study represents the first application of an optimizable dynamic life-cycle assessment framework capable of considering these future changes. The framework was used to draw insights by analyzing the SWM system of a hypothetical suburban U.S. city of 100 000 people over 30 years while considering changes to population, waste generation, and energy mix and costs. The SWM system included 3 waste generation sectors, 30 types of waste materials, and 9 processes for waste separation, treatment, and disposal. A business-as-usual scenario (BAU) was compared to three optimization scenarios that (1) minimized cost (Min Cost), (2) maximized diversion (Max Diversion), and (3) minimized greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Min GHG) from the system. The Min Cost scenario saved $7.2 million (12%) and reduced GHG emissions (3%) relative to the BAU scenario. Compared to the Max Diversion scenario, the Min GHG scenario cost approximately 27% less and more than doubled the net reduction in GHG emissions. The results illustrate how the timed-deployment of technologies in response to changes in waste composition and the energy system results in more efficient SWM system performance compared to what is possible from static analyses.

Impacts of Wake Effect and Time Delay on the Dynamic Analysis of Wind Farms Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

El-Fouly, Tarek H. M.; El-Saadany, Ehab F.; Salama, Magdy M. A.

2008-01-01

This article investigates the impacts of proper modeling of the wake effects and wind speed delays, between different wind turbines' rows, on the dynamic performance accuracy of the wind farms models. Three different modeling scenarios were compared to highlight the impacts of wake effects and wind speed time-delay models. In the first scenario,…

Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCP scenarios in southern China.

PubMed

Dai, Erfu; Wu, Zhuo; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Weimin; Wang, Xiaofan

2016-11-01

In the past three decades, our global climate has been experiencing unprecedented warming. This warming has and will continue to significantly influence the structure and function of forest ecosystems. While studies have been conducted to explore the possible responses of forest landscapes to future climate change, the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have not been widely used in quantitative modeling research of forest landscapes. We used LANDIS-II, a forest dynamic landscape model, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II), to simulate spatial interactions and ecological succession processes under RCP scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We also modeled a control scenario of extrapolating current climate conditions to examine changes in distribution and aboveground biomass (AGB) among five different forest types for the period of 2010-2100 in Taihe County in southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. The results of the simulation show that climate change will significantly influence forest distribution and AGB. (i) Evergreen broad-leaved forests will expand into Chinese fir and Chinese weeping cypress forests. The area percentages of evergreen broad-leaved forests under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the control scenarios account for 18.25%, 18.71%, 18.85% and 17.46% of total forest area, respectively. (ii) The total AGB under RCP4.5 will reach its highest level by the year 2100. Compared with the control scenarios, the total AGB under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increases by 24.1%, 64.2% and 29.8%, respectively. (iii) The forest total AGB increases rapidly at first and then decreases slowly on the temporal dimension. (iv) Even though the fluctuation patterns of total AGB will remain consistent under various future climatic scenarios, there will be certain responsive differences among various forest types. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Validated simulator for space debris removal with nets and other flexible tethers applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gołębiowski, Wojciech; Michalczyk, Rafał; Dyrek, Michał; Battista, Umberto; Wormnes, Kjetil

2016-12-01

In the context of active debris removal technologies and preparation activities for the e.Deorbit mission, a simulator for net-shaped elastic bodies dynamics and their interactions with rigid bodies, has been developed. Its main application is to aid net design and test scenarios for space debris deorbitation. The simulator can model all the phases of the debris capturing process: net launch, flight and wrapping around the target. It handles coupled simulation of rigid and flexible bodies dynamics. Flexible bodies were implemented using Cosserat rods model. It allows to simulate flexible threads or wires with elasticity and damping for stretching, bending and torsion. Threads may be combined into structures of any topology, so the software is able to simulate nets, pure tethers, tether bundles, cages, trusses, etc. Full contact dynamics was implemented. Programmatic interaction with simulation is possible - i.e. for control implementation. The underlying model has been experimentally validated and due to significant gravity influence, experiment had to be performed in microgravity conditions. Validation experiment for parabolic flight was a downscaled process of Envisat capturing. The prepacked net was launched towards the satellite model, it expanded, hit the model and wrapped around it. The whole process was recorded with 2 fast stereographic camera sets for full 3D trajectory reconstruction. The trajectories were used to compare net dynamics to respective simulations and then to validate the simulation tool. The experiments were performed on board of a Falcon-20 aircraft, operated by National Research Council in Ottawa, Canada. Validation results show that model reflects phenomenon physics accurately enough, so it may be used for scenario evaluation and mission design purposes. The functionalities of the simulator are described in detail in the paper, as well as its underlying model, sample cases and methodology behind validation. Results are presented and typical use cases are discussed showing that the software may be used to design throw nets for space debris capturing, but also to simulate deorbitation process, chaser control system or general interactions between rigid and elastic bodies - all in convenient and efficient way. The presented work was led by SKA Polska under the ESA contract, within the CleanSpace initiative.

Avionics System Architecture Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chau, Savio; Hall, Ronald; Traylor, marcus; Whitfield, Adrian

2005-01-01

Avionics System Architecture Tool (ASAT) is a computer program intended for use during the avionics-system-architecture- design phase of the process of designing a spacecraft for a specific mission. ASAT enables simulation of the dynamics of the command-and-data-handling functions of the spacecraft avionics in the scenarios in which the spacecraft is expected to operate. ASAT is built upon I-Logix Statemate MAGNUM, providing a complement of dynamic system modeling tools, including a graphical user interface (GUI), modeling checking capabilities, and a simulation engine. ASAT augments this with a library of predefined avionics components and additional software to support building and analyzing avionics hardware architectures using these components.

Bulk silicon as photonic dynamic infrared scene projector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malyutenko, V. K.; Bogatyrenko, V. V.; Malyutenko, O. Yu.

2013-04-01

A Si-based fast (frame rate >1 kHz), large-scale (scene area 100 cm2), broadband (3-12 μm), dynamic contactless infrared (IR) scene projector is demonstrated. An IR movie appears on a scene because of the conversion of a visible scenario projected at a scene kept at elevated temperature. Light down conversion comes as a result of free carrier generation in a bulk Si scene followed by modulation of its thermal emission output in the spectral band of free carrier absorption. The experimental setup, an IR movie, figures of merit, and the process's advantages in comparison to other projector technologies are discussed.

Dynamical behavior of susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model on weighted networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qingchu; Zhang, Fei

2018-02-01

We study susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model in weighted, regular, and random complex networks. We institute a pairwise-type mathematical model with a general transmission rate to evaluate the influence of the link-weight distribution on the spreading process. Furthermore, we develop a dimensionality reduction approach to derive the condition for the contagion outbreak. Finally, we analyze the influence of the heterogeneity of weight distribution on the outbreak condition for the scenario with a linear transmission rate. Our theoretical analysis is in agreement with stochastic simulations, showing that the heterogeneity of link-weight distribution can have a significant effect on the epidemic dynamics.

Cooperativity and Heterogeneity in Plastic Crystals Studied by Nonlinear Dielectric Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michl, M.; Bauer, Th.; Lunkenheimer, P.; Loidl, A.

2015-02-01

The glassy dynamics of plastic-crystalline cyclo-octanol and ortho-carborane, where only the molecular reorientational degrees of freedom freeze without long-range order, is investigated by nonlinear dielectric spectroscopy. Marked differences to canonical glass formers show up: While molecular cooperativity governs the glassy freezing, it leads to a much weaker slowing down of molecular dynamics than in supercooled liquids. Moreover, the observed nonlinear effects cannot be explained with the same heterogeneity scenario recently applied to canonical glass formers. This supports ideas that molecular relaxation in plastic crystals may be intrinsically nonexponential. Finally, no nonlinear effects were detected for the secondary processes in cyclo-octanol.

A SYMMETRY OF FIXATION TIMES IN EVOULTIONARY DYNAMICS

PubMed Central

TAYLOR, CHRISTINE; IWASA, YOH; NOWAK, MARTIN A.

2010-01-01

In this paper, we show that for evolutionary dynamics between two types that can be described by a Moran process, the conditional fixation time of either type is the same irrespective of the selective scenario. With frequency dependent selection between two strategies A and B of an evolutionary game, regardless of whether A dominates B, A and B are best replies to themselves, or A and B are best replies to each other, the conditional fixation times of a single A and a single B mutant are identical. This does not hold for Wright-Fisher models, nor when the mutants start from multiple copies. PMID:16890959

A time series analysis of multiple ambient pollutants to investigate the underlying air pollution dynamics and interactions.

PubMed

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Lin, Yuan-Chien; Kuo, Yi-Ming

2015-09-01

Understanding the temporal dynamics and interactions of particulate matter (PM) concentration and composition is important for air quality control. This paper applied a dynamic factor analysis method (DFA) to reveal the underlying mechanisms of nonstationary variations in twelve ambient concentrations of aerosols and gaseous pollutants, and the associations with meteorological factors. This approach can consider the uncertainties and temporal dependences of time series data. The common trends of the yearlong and three selected diurnal variations were obtained to characterize the dominant processes occurring in general and specific scenarios in Taipei during 2009 (i.e., during Asian dust storm (ADS) events, rainfall, and under normal conditions). The results revealed the two distinct yearlong NOx transformation processes, and demonstrated that traffic emissions and photochemical reactions both critically influence diurnal variation, depending upon meteorological conditions. During an ADS event, transboundary transport and distinct weather conditions both influenced the temporal pattern of identified common trends. This study shows the DFA method can effectively extract meaningful latent processes of time series data and provide insights of the dominant associations and interactions in the complex air pollution processes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of larch forest dynamics under a changing climate in eastern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Iijima, Y.; Ohta, T.; Kotani, A.; Maximov, T. C.; Hiyama, T.

2017-12-01

According to the projection by an earth system model under RCP8.5 scenario, boreal forest in eastern Siberia (near Yakutsk) is predicted to experience significant changes in climate, in which the mean annual air temperature is projected to be positive and the annual precipitation will be doubled by the end of 21st century. Since the forest in this region is underlain by continuous permafrost, both increasing temperature and precipitation can affect the dynamics of forest through the soil water processes. To investigate such effects, we adopted a newly developed terrestrial ecosystem dynamics model named S-TEDy (SEIB-DGVM-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics model), which mechanistically simulates "the way of life" of each individual tree and resulting tree mortality under the future climate conditions. This model was first developed for the simulation of the dynamics of a tropical rainforest in the Borneo Island, and successfully reproduced higher mortality of large trees due to a prolonged drought induced by ENSO event of 1997-1998. To apply this model to a larch forest in eastern Siberia, we are developing a soil submodel to consider the effect of thawing-freezing processes. We will present a simulation results using the future climate projection.

Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios.

PubMed

Yen, Haw; White, Michael J; Arnold, Jeffrey G; Keitzer, S Conor; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V; Atwood, Jay D; Daggupati, Prasad; Herbert, Matthew E; Sowa, Scott P; Ludsin, Stuart A; Robertson, Dale M; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Rewa, Charles A

2016-11-01

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios. The process based SWAT model was capable of the fine-scale computation and complex routing used in this project, as indicated by measured data at five gaging stations. The level of detail required for fine-scale spatial simulation made the use of both hard and soft data necessary in model calibration, alongside other model adaptations. Limitations to the model's predictive capacity were due to a paucity of data in the region at the NHDPlus scale rather than due to SWAT functionality. Results of treatment scenarios demonstrate variable effects of structural practices and nutrient management on sediment and nutrient loss dynamics. Targeting treatment to acres with critical outstanding conservation needs provides the largest return on investment in terms of nutrient loss reduction per dollar spent, relative to treating acres with lower inherent nutrient loss vulnerabilities. Importantly, this research raises considerations about use of models to guide land management decisions at very fine spatial scales. Decision makers using these results should be aware of data limitations that hinder fine-scale model interpretation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land-Use Impacts on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: An Integrative Tool for Resource Assessment and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, B. M.; Liu, J.; Zhu, Z.; Hawbaker, T. J.

2014-12-01

Human land use and natural processes contribute to the ability of ecosystems to store and sequester carbon and offset greenhouse gas emissions. Changes in land use (e.g. agricultural cultivation, timber harvest, urban development, and other land management strategies) and natural processes (e.g. climate, wildfire, disease, storm, and insect outbreak) drive the dynamics of ecosystem carbon pools. These carbon dynamics operate at different spatial and temporal scales, making it challenging to track the changes in a single integrative framework. Landowners, managers, and policy makers require data, information, and tools on the relative contributions of these drivers of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes in order to evaluate alternative policies and management strategies designed to increase carbon storage and sequestration. In this paper we explore preliminary results from efforts to simulate changes in ecosystem carbon at ecoregional scales, resulting from anthropogenic land use, wildfire, natural vegetation change, and climate variability under a range of future conditions coherent with a range of global change scenarios. Simulations track the fate of carbon across several pools, including living biomass, deadwood, litter, soil, and wood products. Carbon fluxes are estimated based on simulations from the Integrated Biosphere Simulator model (IBIS). Downscaled land-use projections from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways drive changes in land use, along with extrapolations based on local-scale data. We discuss the sensitivity of the model to individual drivers, and the overall uncertainty associated with the wide range of scenario projections, as well as explore alternative policy and management outcomes and their ability to increase carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems.

Western Lake Erie Basin: Soft-data-constrained, NHDPlus resolution watershed modeling and exploration of applicable conservation scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yen, Haw; White, Michael J.; Arnold, Jeffrey G.; Keitzer, S. Conor; Johnson, Mari-Vaughn V; Atwood, Jay D.; Daggupati, Prasad; Herbert, Matthew E.; Sowa, Scott P.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Robertson, Dale M.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Rewa, Charles A.

2016-01-01

Complex watershed simulation models are powerful tools that can help scientists and policy-makers address challenging topics, such as land use management and water security. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), complex hydrological models have been applied at various scales to help describe relationships between land use and water, nutrient, and sediment dynamics. This manuscript evaluated the capacity of the current Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2012) to predict hydrological and water quality processes within WLEB at the finest resolution watershed boundary unit (NHDPlus) along with the current conditions and conservation scenarios. The process based SWAT model was capable of the fine-scale computation and complex routing used in this project, as indicated by measured data at five gaging stations. The level of detail required for fine-scale spatial simulation made the use of both hard and soft data necessary in model calibration, alongside other model adaptations. Limitations to the model's predictive capacity were due to a paucity of data in the region at the NHDPlus scale rather than due to SWAT functionality. Results of treatment scenarios demonstrate variable effects of structural practices and nutrient management on sediment and nutrient loss dynamics. Targeting treatment to acres with critical outstanding conservation needs provides the largest return on investment in terms of nutrient loss reduction per dollar spent, relative to treating acres with lower inherent nutrient loss vulnerabilities. Importantly, this research raises considerations about use of models to guide land management decisions at very fine spatial scales. Decision makers using these results should be aware of data limitations that hinder fine-scale model interpretation.

Cellular Decision Making by Non-Integrative Processing of TLR Inputs.

PubMed

Kellogg, Ryan A; Tian, Chengzhe; Etzrodt, Martin; Tay, Savaş

2017-04-04

Cells receive a multitude of signals from the environment, but how they process simultaneous signaling inputs is not well understood. Response to infection, for example, involves parallel activation of multiple Toll-like receptors (TLRs) that converge on the nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) pathway. Although we increasingly understand inflammatory responses for isolated signals, it is not clear how cells process multiple signals that co-occur in physiological settings. We therefore examined a bacterial infection scenario involving co-stimulation of TLR4 and TLR2. Independent stimulation of these receptors induced distinct NF-κB dynamic profiles, although surprisingly, under co-stimulation, single cells continued to show ligand-specific dynamic responses characteristic of TLR2 or TLR4 signaling rather than a mixed response, comprising a cellular decision that we term "non-integrative" processing. Iterating modeling and microfluidic experiments revealed that non-integrative processing occurred through interaction of switch-like NF-κB activation, receptor-specific processing timescales, cell-to-cell variability, and TLR cross-tolerance mediated by multilayer negative feedback. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Internet Data Delivery for Future Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rash, James; Hogie, Keith; Casasanta, Ralph; Hennessy, Joseph F. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This paper presents work being done at NASA/GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) on applying standard Internet applications and protocols to meet the technology challenge of future satellite missions. Internet protocols (IP) can provide seamless dynamic communication among heterogeneous instruments, spacecraft, ground stations, and constellations of spacecraft. A primary component of this work is to design and demonstrate automated end-to-end transport of files in a dynamic space environment using off-the-shelf, low-cost, commodity-level standard applications and protocols. These functions and capabilities will become increasingly significant in the years to come as both Earth and space science missions fly more sensors and the present labor-intensive, mission-specific techniques for processing and routing data become prohibitively expensive. This paper describes how an IP-based communication architecture can support existing operations concepts and how it will enable some new and complex communication and science concepts. The authors identify specific end-to-end file transfers all the way from instruments to control centers and scientists, and then describe how each data flow can be supported using standard Internet protocols and applications. The scenarios include normal data downlink and command uplink as well as recovery scenarios for both onboard and ground failures. The scenarios are based on an Earth orbiting spacecraft with data rates and downlink capabilities from 300 Kbps to 4 Mbps. Many examples are based on designs currently being investigated for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission.

Radiative striped wind model for gamma-ray bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bégué, D.; Pe'er, A.; Lyubarsky, Y.

2017-05-01

In this paper, we revisit the striped wind model in which the wind is accelerated by magnetic reconnection. In our treatment, radiation is included as an independent component, and two scenarios are considered. In the first one, radiation cannot stream efficiently through the reconnection layer, while the second scenario assumes that radiation is homogeneous in the striped wind. We show how these two assumptions affect the dynamics. In particular, we find that the asymptotic radial evolution of the Lorentz factor is not strongly modified whether radiation can stream through the reconnection layer or not. On the other hand, we show that the width, density and temperature of the reconnection layer are strongly dependent on these assumptions. We then apply the model to the gamma-ray burst context and find that photons cannot diffuse efficiently through the reconnection layer below radius r_D^{Δ } ˜ 10^{10.5} cm, which is about an order of magnitude below the photospheric radius. Above r_D^{Δ }, the dynamics asymptotes to the solution of the scenario in which radiation can stream through the reconnection layer. As a result, the density of the current sheet increases sharply, providing efficient photon production by the Bremsstrahlung process that could have profound influence on the emerging spectrum. This effect might provide a solution to the soft photon problem in gamma-ray bursts.

A system dynamics model to evaluate effects of source separation of municipal solid waste management: A case of Bangkok, Thailand.

PubMed

Sukholthaman, Pitchayanin; Sharp, Alice

2016-06-01

Municipal solid waste has been considered as one of the most immediate and serious problems confronting urban government in most developing and transitional economies. Providing solid waste performance highly depends on the effectiveness of waste collection and transportation process. Generally, this process involves a large amount of expenditures and has very complex and dynamic operational problems. Source separation has a major impact on effectiveness of waste management system as it causes significant changes in quantity and quality of waste reaching final disposal. To evaluate the impact of effective source separation on waste collection and transportation, this study adopts a decision support tool to comprehend cause-and-effect interactions of different variables in waste management system. A system dynamics model that envisages the relationships of source separation and effectiveness of waste management in Bangkok, Thailand is presented. Influential factors that affect waste separation attitudes are addressed; and the result of change in perception on waste separation is explained. The impacts of different separation rates on effectiveness of provided collection service are compared in six scenarios. 'Scenario 5' gives the most promising opportunities as 40% of residents are willing to conduct organic and recyclable waste separation. The results show that better service of waste collection and transportation, less monthly expense, extended landfill life, and satisfactory efficiency of the provided service at 60.48% will be achieved at the end of the simulation period. Implications of how to get public involved and conducted source separation are proposed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neural substrates and behavioral profiles of romantic jealousy and its temporal dynamics.

PubMed

Sun, Yan; Yu, Hongbo; Chen, Jie; Liang, Jie; Lu, Lin; Zhou, Xiaolin; Shi, Jie

2016-06-07

Jealousy is not only a way of experiencing love but also a stabilizer of romantic relationships, although morbid romantic jealousy is maladaptive. Being engaged in a formal romantic relationship can tune one's romantic jealousy towards a specific target. Little is known about how the human brain processes romantic jealousy by now. Here, by combining scenario-based imagination and functional MRI, we investigated the behavioral and neural correlates of romantic jealousy and their development across stages (before vs. after being in a formal relationship). Romantic jealousy scenarios elicited activations primarily in the basal ganglia (BG) across stages, and were significantly higher after the relationship was established in both the behavioral rating and BG activation. The intensity of romantic jealousy was related to the intensity of romantic happiness, which mainly correlated with ventral medial prefrontal cortex activation. The increase in jealousy across stages was associated with the tendency for interpersonal aggression. These results bridge the gap between the theoretical conceptualization of romantic jealousy and its neural correlates and shed light on the dynamic changes in jealousy.

Neural substrates and behavioral profiles of romantic jealousy and its temporal dynamics

PubMed Central

Sun, Yan; Yu, Hongbo; Chen, Jie; Liang, Jie; Lu, Lin; Zhou, Xiaolin; Shi, Jie

2016-01-01

Jealousy is not only a way of experiencing love but also a stabilizer of romantic relationships, although morbid romantic jealousy is maladaptive. Being engaged in a formal romantic relationship can tune one’s romantic jealousy towards a specific target. Little is known about how the human brain processes romantic jealousy by now. Here, by combining scenario-based imagination and functional MRI, we investigated the behavioral and neural correlates of romantic jealousy and their development across stages (before vs. after being in a formal relationship). Romantic jealousy scenarios elicited activations primarily in the basal ganglia (BG) across stages, and were significantly higher after the relationship was established in both the behavioral rating and BG activation. The intensity of romantic jealousy was related to the intensity of romantic happiness, which mainly correlated with ventral medial prefrontal cortex activation. The increase in jealousy across stages was associated with the tendency for interpersonal aggression. These results bridge the gap between the theoretical conceptualization of romantic jealousy and its neural correlates and shed light on the dynamic changes in jealousy. PMID:27273024

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com; Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com; Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com

2011-10-15

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasingmore » populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.« less

Dynamics in supercooled polyalcohols: Primary and secondary relaxation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Döß, A.; Paluch, M.; Sillescu, H.; Hinze, G.

2002-10-01

We have studied details of the molecular dynamics in a series of pure polyalcohols by means of dielectric spectroscopy and 2H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). From glycerol to threitol, xylitol and sorbitol a systematic change in the dynamics of the primary and secondary relaxation is found. With increasing molecular weight and fragility an increase in the width of the α-peak is observed. Details of the molecular reorientation process responsible for the α-relaxation were exploited by two-dimensional NMR experiments. It is found that in the same sequence of polyalcohols the appearance of the secondary relaxation changes gradually from a wing type scenario to a pronounced β-peak. From NMR experiments using selectively deuterated samples the molecular origin of the secondary relaxation could be elucidated in more detail.

An Update on Binary Formation by Rotational Fission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tohline, Joel E.; Durisen, Richard H.

During the 1980s, numerical simulations showed that dynamic growth of a barlike mode in initially axisymmetric, equilibrium protostars does not lead to prompt binary formation, i. e., fission. Instead, such evolutions usually produce a dynamically stable, spinning barlike configuration. In recent years, this result has been confirmed by numerous groups using a variety of different hydrodynamical tools, and stability analyses have convincingly shown that fission does not occur in such systems because gravitational torques cause nonlinear saturation of the mode amplitude. Other possible routes to fission have been much less well scrutinized because they rely upon a detailed understanding of the structure and stability of initially nonaxisymmetric structures and/or evolutions that are driven by secular, rather than dynamic processes. Efforts are underway to examine these other fission scenarios.

Oxygen plasma etching of graphene: A first-principles dynamical inspection of the reaction mechanisms and related activation barriers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koizumi, Kenichi; Boero, Mauro; Shigeta, Yasuteru; Oshiyama, Atsushi; Dept. of Applied Physics Team; Institute of Physics and Chemistry of Strasbourg (IPCMS) Collaboration; Department Of Materials Engineering Science Collaboration

2013-03-01

Oxygen plasma etching is a crucial step in the fabrication of electronic circuits and has recently received a renovated interest in view of the realization of carbon-based nanodevices. In an attempt at unraveling the atomic-scale details and to provide guidelines for the control of the etching processes mechanisms, we inspected the possible reaction pathways via reactive first principles simulations. These processes involve breaking and formation of several chemical bonds and are characterized by different free-energy barriers. Free-energy sampling techniques (metadynamics and blue moon), used to enhance the standard Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics, provide us a detailed microscopic picture of the etching of graphene surfaces and a comprehensive scenario of the activation barriers involved in the various steps. MEXT, Japan - contract N. 22104005

Dynamic Exergy Method for Evaluating the Control and Operation of Oxy-Combustion Boiler Island Systems.

PubMed

Jin, Bo; Zhao, Haibo; Zheng, Chuguang; Liang, Zhiwu

2017-01-03

Exergy-based methods are widely applied to assess the performance of energy conversion systems; however, these methods mainly focus on a certain steady-state and have limited applications for evaluating the control impacts on system operation. To dynamically obtain the thermodynamic behavior and reveal the influences of control structures, layers and loops, on system energy performance, a dynamic exergy method is developed, improved, and applied to a complex oxy-combustion boiler island system for the first time. The three most common operating scenarios are studied, and the results show that the flow rate change process leads to less energy consumption than oxygen purity and air in-leakage change processes. The variation of oxygen purity produces the largest impact on system operation, and the operating parameter sensitivity is not affected by the presence of process control. The control system saves energy during flow rate and oxygen purity change processes, while it consumes energy during the air in-leakage change process. More attention should be paid to the oxygen purity change because it requires the largest control cost. In the control system, the supervisory control layer requires the greatest energy consumption and the largest control cost to maintain operating targets, while the steam control loops cause the main energy consumption.

Development of a Search and Rescue Simulation to Study the Effects of Prolonged Isolation on Team Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entin, Elliot E.; Kerrigan, Caroline; Serfaty, Daniel; Young, Philip

1998-01-01

The goals of this project were to identify and investigate aspects of team and individual decision-making and risk-taking behaviors hypothesized to be most affected by prolonged isolation. A key premise driving our research approach is that effects of stressors that impact individual and team cognitive processes in an isolated, confined, and hazardous environment will be projected onto the performance of a simulation task. To elicit and investigate these team behaviors we developed a search and rescue task concept as a scenario domain that would be relevant for isolated crews. We modified the Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD) simulator, a platform that has been extensively used for empirical research in team processes and taskwork performance, to portray the features of a search and rescue scenario and present the task components incorporated into that scenario. The resulting software is called DD-Search and Rescue (Version 1.0). To support the use of the DDD-Search and Rescue simulator in isolated experiment settings, we wrote a player's manual for teaching team members to operate the simulator and play the scenario. We then developed a research design and experiment plan that would allow quantitative measures of individual and team decision making skills using the DDD-Search and Rescue simulator as the experiment platform. A description of these activities and the associated materials that were produced under this contract are contained in this report.

Investigation of Alternative Return Strategies for Orion Trans-earth Injection Design Options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchand, Belinda G.; Scarritt, Sara K.; Howell, Kathleen C.; Weeks, Michael W.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate alternative return strategies for the Orion trans-Earth injection (TEI) phase. A dynamical systems analysis approach considers the structure of the stable and unstable Sun perturbed Earth-Moon manifolds near the Earth-Moon interface region. A hybrid approach, then, combines the results from this analysis with classical two-body methods in a targeting process that seeks to expand the window of return opportunities in a precision entry scenario. The resulting startup arcs can be used, for instance, to enhance the block set of solutions available onboard during an autonomous targeting process.

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change.

PubMed

Fan, Zhaosheng; David McGuire, Anthony; Turetsky, Merritt R; Harden, Jennifer W; Michael Waddington, James; Kane, Evan S

2013-02-01

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO2 and CH4 could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process-based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS-TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005-2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water-table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO2 emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Modeling Negotiation by a Paticipatory Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torii, Daisuke; Ishida, Toru; Bousquet, François

In a participatory approach by social scientists, role playing games (RPG) are effectively used to understand real thinking and behavior of stakeholders, but RPG is not sufficient to handle a dynamic process like negotiation. In this study, a participatory simulation where user-controlled avatars and autonomous agents coexist is introduced to the participatory approach for modeling negotiation. To establish a modeling methodology of negotiation, we have tackled the following two issues. First, for enabling domain experts to concentrate interaction design for participatory simulation, we have adopted the architecture in which an interaction layer controls agents and have defined three types of interaction descriptions (interaction protocol, interaction scenario and avatar control scenario) to be described. Second, for enabling domain experts and stakeholders to capitalize on participatory simulation, we have established a four-step process for acquiring negotiation model: 1) surveys and interviews to stakeholders, 2) RPG, 3) interaction design, and 4) participatory simulation. Finally, we discussed our methodology through a case study of agricultural economics in the northeast Thailand.

An avionics scenario and command model description for Space Generic Open Avionics Architecture (SGOAA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stovall, John R.; Wray, Richard B.

1994-01-01

This paper presents a description of a model for a space vehicle operational scenario and the commands for avionics. This model will be used in developing a dynamic architecture simulation model using the Statemate CASE tool for validation of the Space Generic Open Avionics Architecture (SGOAA). The SGOAA has been proposed as an avionics architecture standard to NASA through its Strategic Avionics Technology Working Group (SATWG) and has been accepted by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) for conversion into an SAE Avionics Standard. This architecture was developed for the Flight Data Systems Division (FDSD) of the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) by the Lockheed Engineering and Sciences Company (LESC), Houston, Texas. This SGOAA includes a generic system architecture for the entities in spacecraft avionics, a generic processing external and internal hardware architecture, and a nine class model of interfaces. The SGOAA is both scalable and recursive and can be applied to any hierarchical level of hardware/software processing systems.

Developing a dynamic life cycle greenhouse gas emission inventory for wood construction for two different end-of-life scenarios

Treesearch

Richard D. Bergman; James Salazar; Scott Bowe

2012-01-01

Static life cycle assessment does not fully describe the carbon footprint of construction wood because of carbon changes in the forest and product pools over time. This study developed a dynamic greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory approach using US Forest Service and life-cycle data to estimate GHG emissions on construction wood for two different end-of-life scenarios....

Inevitable end-of-21st-century trends toward earlier surface runoff timing in California's Sierra Nevada Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, M. A.; Hall, A. D.; Sun, F.; Walton, D.; Berg, N.

2015-12-01

Hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling is used to produce surface runoff timing projections for California's Sierra Nevada, a high-elevation mountain range with significant seasonal snow cover. First, future climate change projections (RCP8.5 forcing scenario, 2081-2100 period) from five CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) are dynamically downscaled. These projections reveal that future warming leads to a shift toward earlier snowmelt and surface runoff timing throughout the Sierra Nevada region. Relationships between warming and surface runoff timing from the dynamical simulations are used to build a simple statistical model that mimics the dynamical model's projected surface runoff timing changes given GCM input or other statistically-downscaled input. This statistical model can be used to produce surface runoff timing projections for other GCMs, periods, and forcing scenarios to quantify ensemble-mean changes, uncertainty due to intermodel variability and consequences stemming from choice of forcing scenario. For all CMIP5 GCMs and forcing scenarios, significant trends toward earlier surface runoff timing occur at elevations below 2500m. Thus, we conclude that trends toward earlier surface runoff timing by the end-of-the-21st century are inevitable. The changes to surface runoff timing diagnosed in this study have implications for many dimensions of climate change, including impacts on surface hydrology, water resources, and ecosystems.

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

2011-12-01

Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

Regional Eco-hydrologic Sensitivity to Projected Amazonian Land Use Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, R. G.; Longo, M.; Zhang, K.; Levine, N. M.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Bras, R. L.

2011-12-01

Given business as usual land-use practices, it is estimated that by 2050 roughly half of the Amazon's pre-anthropogenic closed-canopy forest stands would remain. Of this, eight of the Amazon's twelve major hydrologic basins would lose more than half of their forest cover to deforestation. With the availability of these land-use projections, we may start to question the associated response of the region's hydrologic climate to significant land-cover change. Here the Ecosystem-Demography Model 2 (EDM2, a dynamic and spatially distributed terrestrial model of plant structure and composition, succession, disturbance and thermodynamic transfer) is coupled with the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Model (BRAMS, a three-dimensional limited area model of the atmospheric fluid momentum equations and physics parameterizations for closing the system of equations at the lower boundary, convection, radiative transfer, microphysics, etc). This experiment conducts decadal simulations, framed with high-reliability lateral boundary conditions of reanalysis atmospheric data (ERA-40 interim) and variable impact of land-use scenarios (SimAmazonia). This is done by initializing the regional ecosystem structure with both aggressive and conservationist deforestation scenarios, and also by differentially allowing and not-allowing dynamic vegetation processes. While the lateral boundaries of the simulation will not reflect the future climate in the region, reanalysis data has provided improved realism as compared to results derived from GCM boundary data. Therefore, the ecosystem response (forest composition and structure) and the time-space patterns of hydrologic information (soil moisture, rainfall, evapotranspiration) are objectively compared in the context of a sensitivity experiment, as opposed to a forecast. The following questions are addressed. How do aggressive and conservative scenarios of Amazonian deforestation effect the regional patterning of hydrologic information in the Amazon and South American Convergence Zone, and does forest response in these regions influence that patterning of hydrologic information?

Recent Results on "Approximations to Optimal Alarm Systems for Anomaly Detection"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Rodney Alexander

2009-01-01

An optimal alarm system and its approximations may use Kalman filtering for univariate linear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian noise to provide a layer of predictive capability. Predicted Kalman filter future process values and a fixed critical threshold can be used to construct a candidate level-crossing event over a predetermined prediction window. An optimal alarm system can be designed to elicit the fewest false alarms for a fixed detection probability in this particular scenario.

Update on Controlling Herds of Cooperative Robots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quadrelli, Marco; Chang, Johnny

2007-01-01

A document presents further information on the subject matter of "Controlling Herds of Cooperative Robots". The document describes the results of the computational simulations of a one-blimp, three-surface-sonde herd in various operational scenarios, including sensitivity studies as a function of distributed communication and processing delays between the sondes and the blimp. From results of the simulations, it is concluded that the methodology is feasible, even if there are significant uncertainties in the dynamical models.

A computational framework for prime implicants identification in noncoherent dynamic systems.

PubMed

Di Maio, Francesco; Baronchelli, Samuele; Zio, Enrico

2015-01-01

Dynamic reliability methods aim at complementing the capability of traditional static approaches (e.g., event trees [ETs] and fault trees [FTs]) by accounting for the system dynamic behavior and its interactions with the system state transition process. For this, the system dynamics is here described by a time-dependent model that includes the dependencies with the stochastic transition events. In this article, we present a novel computational framework for dynamic reliability analysis whose objectives are i) accounting for discrete stochastic transition events and ii) identifying the prime implicants (PIs) of the dynamic system. The framework entails adopting a multiple-valued logic (MVL) to consider stochastic transitions at discretized times. Then, PIs are originally identified by a differential evolution (DE) algorithm that looks for the optimal MVL solution of a covering problem formulated for MVL accident scenarios. For testing the feasibility of the framework, a dynamic noncoherent system composed of five components that can fail at discretized times has been analyzed, showing the applicability of the framework to practical cases. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Impedance-Based Stability Analysis in Grid Interconnection Impact Study Owing to the Increased Adoption of Converter-Interfaced Generators

DOE PAGES

Cho, Youngho; Hur, Kyeon; Kang, Yong; ...

2017-09-08

This study investigates the emerging harmonic stability concerns to be addressed by grid planners in generation interconnection studies, owing to the increased adoption of renewable energy resources connected to the grid via power electronic converters. The wideband and high-frequency electromagnetic transient (EMT) characteristics of these converter-interfaced generators (CIGs) and their interaction with the grid impedance are not accurately captured in the typical dynamic studies conducted by grid planners. This paper thus identifies the desired components to be studied and subsequently develops a practical process for integrating a new CIG into a grid with the existing CIGs. The steps of thismore » process are as follows: the impedance equation of a CIG using its control dynamics and an interface filter to the grid, for example, an LCL filter (inductor-capacitor-inductor type), is developed; an equivalent impedance model including the existing CIGs nearby and the grid observed from the point of common coupling are derived; the system stability for credible operating scenarios is assessed. Detailed EMT simulations validate the accuracy of the impedance models and stability assessment for various connection scenarios. Here, by complementing the conventional EMT simulation studies, the proposed analytical approach enables grid planners to identify critical design parameters for seamlessly integrating a new CIG and ensuring the reliability of the grid.« less

Stereodynamic insight into the thermal history effects on poly(vinyl chloride) calorimetric sub-glass and glass transitions as a fragile glass model.

PubMed

Pin, Jean-Mathieu; Behazin, Ehsan; Misra, Manjusri; Mohanty, Amar

2018-05-02

The dynamic thermal history impact of poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) has been explored for a wide range of pre-cooling rates, from 1 to 30 °C min-1. A first macroscopic insight into the dynamic thermal history influence has been highlighted through a decrease in the apparent activation energy (Eapp) in the first stage of the glass transition. The overall glass transition Eapp surface was successfully modeled in a polynomial fashion regarding the pre-cooling range. Raman scattering was used to associate the Eapp variations along the glass transition conversion with the stereochemistry evolution during the polymeric relaxation. Herein, the selection of atactic PVC as the polymer model permits us to monitor the glassy polymer segment stereodynamics during the heating ramp through the C-Cl stretching. The intermolecular H-Cl dipole interactions, as well as intramolecular conformational reorganizations among syndiotactic, isotactic and heterotactic polymer sequences, have been associated with non-cooperative and cooperative motions, i.e. the β- and α-process, respectively. The fruitful comparison of the two extreme values of the pre-cooling rates permits us to propose a thermokinetic scenario that explains the occurrence, intensity, and inter-dependence of β- and α-processes in the glassy state and during the glass transition. This scenario could potentially be generalized to all the other polymeric glass-formers.

Modeling the potential persistence of various ecological systems under CMIP5 future climate and land use scenarios throughout California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, B.; Ferschweiler, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

California's geographic location, topographic complexity and latitudinal climatic gradient give rise to great biological and ecological diversity. However, increased land use pressure, altered seasonal weather patterns, and changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are having pronounced effects on ecosystems and the multitude of services they provide for an increasing population. As a result, natural resource managers are faced with formidable challenges to maintain these critical services. The goals of this project were to better understand how projected 21st century climate and land-use change scenarios may alter ecosystem dynamics, the spatial distribution of various vegetation types and land-use patterns, and to provide a coarse scale "triage map" of where land managers may want to concentrate efforts to reduce ecological stress in order to mitigate the potential impacts of a changing climate. We used the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model and the LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model to simulate the potential effects of future climate and land-use change on ecological processes for the state of California. Historical climate data were obtained from the PRISM dataset and nine CMIP5 climate models were run for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate projections were combined with a business-as-usual land-use scenario based on local-scale land use histories. For ease of discussion, results from five simulation runs (historic, hot-dry, hot-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) are presented. Results showed large changes in the extent of urban and agricultural lands. In addition, several simulated potential vegetation types persisted in situ under all four future scenarios, although alterations in total area, total ecosystem carbon, and forest vigor (NPP/LAI) were noted. As might be expected, the majority of the forested types that persisted occurred on public lands. However, more than 78% of the simulated subtropical mixed forest and 26% of temperate evergreen needleleaf forest types persisted on private lands under all four future scenarios. Result suggest that building collaborations across management borders could be valuable tool to guide natural resource management actions into the future.

Modeling the formation of porphyry-copper ores

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ingebritsen, Steven E.

2012-01-01

Porphyry-copper ore systems, the source of much of the world's copper and molybdenum, form when metal-bearing fluids are expelled from shallow, degassing magmas. On page 1613 of this issue, Weis et al. (1) demonstrate that self-organizing processes focus metal deposition. Specifically, their simulation studies indicate that ores develop as consequences of dynamic variations in rock permeability driven by injection of volatile species from rising magmas. Scenarios with a static permeability structure could not reproduce key field observations, whereas dynamic permeability responses to magmatic-fluid injection localized a metal-precipitation front where enrichment by a factor of 103 could be achieved [for an overview of their numerical-simulation model CSMP++, see (2)].

Towards improved capability and confidence in coupled atmospheric and wildland fire modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauer, Jeremy A.

This dissertation work is aimed at improving the capability and confidence in a modernized and improved version of Los Alamos National Laboratory's coupled atmospheric and wild- land fire dynamics model, Higrad-Firetec. Higrad is the hydrodynamics component of this large eddy simulation model that solves the three dimensional, fully compressible Navier-Stokes equations, incorporating a dynamic eddy viscosity formulation through a two-scale turbulence closure scheme. Firetec is the vegetation, drag forcing, and combustion physics portion that is integrated with Higrad. The modern version of Higrad-Firetec incorporates multiple numerical methodologies and high performance computing aspects which combine to yield a unique tool capable of augmenting theoretical and observational investigations in order to better understand the multi-scale, multi-phase, and multi-physics, phenomena involved in coupled atmospheric and environmental dynamics. More specifically, the current work includes extended functionality and validation efforts targeting component processes in coupled atmospheric and wildland fire scenarios. Since observational data of sufficient quality and resolution to validate the fully coupled atmosphere-wildfire scenario simply does not exist, we instead seek to validate components of the full prohibitively convoluted process. This manuscript provides first, an introduction and background into the application space of Higrad-Firetec. Second we document the model formulation, solution procedure, and a simple scalar transport verification exercise. Third, we perform a validate model results against observational data for time averaged flow field metrics in and above four idealized forest canopies. Fourth, we carry out a validation effort for the non-buoyant jet in a crossflow scenario (to which an analogy can be made for atmosphere-wildfire interactions) comparing model results to laboratory data of both steady-in-time and unsteady-in-time metrics. Finally, an extension of model multi-phase physics is implemented, allowing for the representation of multiple collocated fuels as separately evolving constituents leading to differences resulting rate of spread and total burned area. In combination these efforts demonstrate improved capability, increased validation of component functionality, and unique applicability the Higrad-Firetec modeling framework. As a result this work provides a substantially more robust foundation for future new, more widely acceptable investigations into the complexities of coupled atmospheric and wildland fire behavior.

Improved battery parameter estimation method considering operating scenarios for HEV/EV applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Jufeng; Xia, Bing; Shang, Yunlong

This study presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted datasetmore » is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC) network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.« less

Improved battery parameter estimation method considering operating scenarios for HEV/EV applications

DOE PAGES

Yang, Jufeng; Xia, Bing; Shang, Yunlong; ...

2016-12-22

This study presents an improved battery parameter estimation method based on typical operating scenarios in hybrid electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Compared with the conventional estimation methods, the proposed method takes both the constant-current charging and the dynamic driving scenarios into account, and two separate sets of model parameters are estimated through different parts of the pulse-rest test. The model parameters for the constant-charging scenario are estimated from the data in the pulse-charging periods, while the model parameters for the dynamic driving scenario are estimated from the data in the rest periods, and the length of the fitted datasetmore » is determined by the spectrum analysis of the load current. In addition, the unsaturated phenomenon caused by the long-term resistor-capacitor (RC) network is analyzed, and the initial voltage expressions of the RC networks in the fitting functions are improved to ensure a higher model fidelity. Simulation and experiment results validated the feasibility of the developed estimation method.« less

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Stability Influenced by the Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet under Various Warming Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gierz, P.; Lohmann, G.; Wei, W.; Barbi, D.

2012-12-01

In this study, we aim to model melting processes of the Greenland ice sheet over the next 1000 years using the Earth system model COSMOS with a dynamic ice sheet module. Of primary interest is the resulting impact on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (GMOC/AMOC), which is expected to slow in response to a large freshwater (eg melt water) input. Six warming scenarios will be considered, one set corresponding to the IPCC's RPC Scenario 6, and another set corresponding to RPC Scenario 4.5, each time with 0.5, 1, and 2% increase of greenhouse gas concentration per year. It is expected that the freshwater input will slow down the AMOC overturning; each scenario producing a unique braking signal corresponding to how rapidly the Greenland ice sheet is forced to melt. It will be interesting to see if there is a CO2 threshold level at which the slowdown of the AMOC begins and the melting phenomena becomes unstable and positively reinforces itself or instead, as previous studies have demonstrated with a prescribed amount of melting, if the freshwater input always allows for an eventual recovery of the AMOC to a stable state regardless of the rapidity with which the salinity anomalies develop. The primary difference between this set of experiments and those in previous studies shall be the dynamic nature of the ice sheet model, as we will allow the Greenland ice sheet to melt solely based upon atmospheric conditions rather than prescribing a salinity change directly into the ocean model. It is expected that higher levels of greenhouse gases will result in more rapid melting, which in turn will have a stronger braking affect on the AMOC, possibly with longer recovery times to the starting equilibrium point. It will additionally be of interest to see if it is possible to create a shift in this equilibrium, suggesting that the rapidity with which density anomalies are introduced may create a new stable deep water formation rate. PRELIMINARY RESULTS - AMOC downwelling strength with changes in dynamically modeled Ice Sheet volume. AMOC seems to decrease with varying magnitudes depending upon the rate of carbon dioxide release and the amount of meltwater generated.

Regional landslide hazard assesment for Kulon Progo Area, Central Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnawati, D.

2009-12-01

Karanganyar region is situated in a dynamic volcanic region in Java Island, where rain-induced landslides are frequent and widespread. Shallow-rapid earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common landslide type occurring on the steep slope and had resulted in major casualties, whilst deep soil creeping is more prominant on the gentle slope which creat a lot of damages on the houses and infrastructure. A landslide hazard assessment had been conducted to support the landslide mitigation program in this region. Such assessment was carried out by applying a semi qualitative approach (Analytical Hierarchical Process) where a weighting system was applied to assess the level of importance of each controlling parameter as suggested by Saaty (1980). Existing conditions of each controlling parameters were also assessed based on relative hierarchical system by applying scoring. Geographical Information System was used as a tool in such analysis and mapping process. The isohyet map was also prepared from statistical and spatial analyses on rain fall data. Finally, two different scenarios of landslide hazard maps were established, i.e. the scenario without any rainfall (Scenario 1) and with the reainfall (Scenario 2). It was found that the most susceptible zone of landslide was localised on the steep slope (with the inclination beyond 45o ) of jointed andesitic breccia, which was covered by thinck silty clay and situated close to the stream zone (Scenario 1). However from the hazard map and analysis on scenario 2, it can be identified that the susceptible zone expanded larger due to the rainfall, covering most region of the west-slope area of Lawu Volcano. Therefore, it can be concluded that the rainfall intensity is very crucial to induce the landslide not only in the most susceptible zone, but also in the larger area which also include the less susceptbile zone. This findings is also crucial to support the development of landslide spatial-early-warning system in the region.

How to make an efficient propaganda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carletti, T.; Fanelli, D.; Grolli, S.; Guarino, A.

2006-04-01

The effects of propaganda are analyzed in an opinion dynamics model in which, under certain conditions, individuals adjust their opinion as a result of random binary encounters. The aim of this paper is to study under what conditions propaganda changes the opinion dynamics of a social system. Four different scenarios are found, characterized by different sensitivities to the propaganda. For each scenario the maximum efficiency of propaganda is attained following a given strategy that is here outlined.

An emergency-adaptive routing scheme for wireless sensor networks for building fire hazard monitoring.

PubMed

Zeng, Yuanyuan; Sreenan, Cormac J; Sitanayah, Lanny; Xiong, Naixue; Park, Jong Hyuk; Zheng, Guilin

2011-01-01

Fire hazard monitoring and evacuation for building environments is a novel application area for the deployment of wireless sensor networks. In this context, adaptive routing is essential in order to ensure safe and timely data delivery in building evacuation and fire fighting resource applications. Existing routing mechanisms for wireless sensor networks are not well suited for building fires, especially as they do not consider critical and dynamic network scenarios. In this paper, an emergency-adaptive, real-time and robust routing protocol is presented for emergency situations such as building fire hazard applications. The protocol adapts to handle dynamic emergency scenarios and works well with the routing hole problem. Theoretical analysis and simulation results indicate that our protocol provides a real-time routing mechanism that is well suited for dynamic emergency scenarios in building fires when compared with other related work.

An Emergency-Adaptive Routing Scheme for Wireless Sensor Networks for Building Fire Hazard Monitoring

PubMed Central

Zeng, Yuanyuan; Sreenan, Cormac J.; Sitanayah, Lanny; Xiong, Naixue; Park, Jong Hyuk; Zheng, Guilin

2011-01-01

Fire hazard monitoring and evacuation for building environments is a novel application area for the deployment of wireless sensor networks. In this context, adaptive routing is essential in order to ensure safe and timely data delivery in building evacuation and fire fighting resource applications. Existing routing mechanisms for wireless sensor networks are not well suited for building fires, especially as they do not consider critical and dynamic network scenarios. In this paper, an emergency-adaptive, real-time and robust routing protocol is presented for emergency situations such as building fire hazard applications. The protocol adapts to handle dynamic emergency scenarios and works well with the routing hole problem. Theoretical analysis and simulation results indicate that our protocol provides a real-time routing mechanism that is well suited for dynamic emergency scenarios in building fires when compared with other related work. PMID:22163774

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

PubMed

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Relaxation of vacuum energy in q-theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinkhamer, F. R.; Savelainen, M.; Volovik, G. E.

2017-08-01

The q-theory formalism aims to describe the thermodynamics and dynamics of the deep quantum vacuum. The thermodynamics leads to an exact cancellation of the quantum-field zero-point-energies in equilibrium, which partly solves the main cosmological constant problem. But, with reversible dynamics, the spatially flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe asymptotically approaches the Minkowski vacuum only if the Big Bang already started out in an initial equilibrium state. Here, we extend q-theory by introducing dissipation from irreversible processes. Neglecting the possible instability of a de-Sitter vacuum, we obtain different scenarios with either a de-Sitter asymptote or collapse to a final singularity. The Minkowski asymptote still requires fine-tuning of the initial conditions. This suggests that, within the q-theory approach, the decay of the de-Sitter vacuum is a necessary condition for the dynamical solution of the cosmological constant problem.

Computational Fluid Dynamic Analysis of Enhancing Passenger Cabin Comfort Using PCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purusothaman, M.; Valarmathi, T. N.; Dada Mohammad, S. K.

2016-09-01

The main purpose of this study is to determine a cost effective way to enhance passenger cabin comfort by analyzing the effect of solar radiation of a open parked vehicle, which is exposed to constant solar radiation on a hot and sunny day. Maximum heat accumulation occurs in the car cabin due to the solar radiation. By means of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis, a simulation process is conducted for the thermal regulation of the passenger cabin using a layer of phase change material (PCM) on the roof structure of a stationary car when exposed to ambient temperature on a hot sunny day. The heat energy accumulated in the passenger cabin is absorbed by a layer of PCM for phase change process. The installation of a ventilation system which uses an exhaust fan to create a natural convection scenario in the cabin is also considered to enhance passenger comfort along with PCM.

Effect of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea on the nutrient dynamics under climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coelho, J. P.; Lillebø, A. I.; Crespo, D.; Leston, S.; Dolbeth, M.

2018-05-01

The main aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the alien invasive bivalve Corbicula fluminea (Müller, 1774) in the nutrient dynamics of temperate estuarine systems (oligohaline areas) under climate change scenarios. The scenarios simulated shifts in climatic conditions, following salinity (0 or 5) and temperature (24 or 30 °C) changes, usual during drought and heat wave events. The effect of the individual size/age (different size classes with fixed biomass) and density (various densities of <1 cm clams) on the bioturbation-associated nutrient dynamics were also evaluated under an 18-day laboratory experimental setup. Results highlight the significant effect of C. fluminea on the ecosystem nutrient dynamics, enhancing the efflux of both phosphate and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from the sediments to the water column. Both drought and heat wave events will have an impact on the DIN dynamics within C. fluminea colonized systems, favouring a higher NH4-N efflux. The population structure of C. fluminea will have a decisive role on the impact of the species, with stronger nutrient effluxes associated with a predominantly juvenile population structure.

Spatially explicit simulation of hydrologically controlled carbon and nitrogen cycles and associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Ju, Weimin

2009-06-01

Ecosystem models that simulate biogeochemical processes usually ignore hydrological controls that govern them. It is quite possible that topographically driven water fluxes significantly influence the spatial distribution of C sources and sinks because of their large contribution to the local water balance. To investigate this, we simulated biogeochemical processes along with the associated feedback mechanisms in a boreal ecosystem using a spatially explicit hydroecological model, boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS)-TerrainLab V2.0, that has a tight coupling of ecophysiological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes. First, the simulated dynamics of snowpack, soil temperature, net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and total ecosystem respiration (TER) were validated with high-frequency measurements for 2 years. The model was able to explain 80% of the variability in NEP and 84% of the variability in TER. Further, we investigated the influence of topographically driven subsurface base flow on soil C and N cycling and on the spatiotemporal patterns of C sources and sinks using three hydrological modeling scenarios that differed in hydrological conceptualizations. In general, the scenarios that had nonexplicit hydrological representation overestimated NEP, as opposed to the scenario that had an explicit (realistic) representation. The key processes controlling the NEP differences were attributed to the combined effects of variations in photosynthesis (due to changes in stomatal conductance and nitrogen (N) availability), heterotrophic respiration, and autotrophic respiration, all of which occur simultaneously affecting NEP. Feedback relationships were also found to exacerbate the differences. We identified six types of NEP differences (biases), of which the most commonly found was due to an underestimation of the existing C sources, highlighting the vulnerability of regional-scale ecosystem models that ignore hydrological processes.

An integrated pipeline to create and experience compelling scenarios in virtual reality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Springer, Jan P.; Neumann, Carsten; Reiners, Dirk; Cruz-Neira, Carolina

2011-03-01

One of the main barriers to create and use compelling scenarios in virtual reality is the complexity and time-consuming efforts for modeling, element integration, and the software development to properly display and interact with the content in the available systems. Still today, most virtual reality applications are tedious to create and they are hard-wired to the specific display and interaction system available to the developers when creating the application. Furthermore, it is not possible to alter the content or the dynamics of the content once the application has been created. We present our research on designing a software pipeline that enables the creation of compelling scenarios with a fair degree of visual and interaction complexity in a semi-automated way. Specifically, we are targeting drivable urban scenarios, ranging from large cities to sparsely populated rural areas that incorporate both static components (e. g., houses, trees) and dynamic components (e. g., people, vehicles) as well as events, such as explosions or ambient noise. Our pipeline has four basic components. First, an environment designer, where users sketch the overall layout of the scenario, and an automated method constructs the 3D environment from the information in the sketch. Second, a scenario editor used for authoring the complete scenario, incorporate the dynamic elements and events, fine tune the automatically generated environment, define the execution conditions of the scenario, and set up any data gathering that may be necessary during the execution of the scenario. Third, a run-time environment for different virtual-reality systems provides users with the interactive experience as designed with the designer and the editor. And fourth, a bi-directional monitoring system that allows for capturing and modification of information from the virtual environment. One of the interesting capabilities of our pipeline is that scenarios can be built and modified on-the-fly as they are being presented in the virtual-reality systems. Users can quickly prototype the basic scene using the designer and the editor on a control workstation. More elements can then be introduced into the scene from both the editor and the virtual-reality display. In this manner, users are able to gradually increase the complexity of the scenario with immediate feedback. The main use of this pipeline is the rapid development of scenarios for human-factors studies. However, it is applicable in a much more general context.

A System Dynamics Model of Serum Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening for Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Palma, Anton; Lounsbury, David W; Schlecht, Nicolas F; Agalliu, Ilir

2016-02-01

Since 2012, US guidelines have recommended against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer. However, evidence of screening benefit from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening trial and the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer has been inconsistent, due partly to differences in noncompliance and contamination. Using system dynamics modeling, we replicated the PLCO trial and extrapolated follow-up to 20 years. We then simulated 3 scenarios correcting for contamination in the PLCO control arm using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence and survival data collected prior to the PSA screening era (scenario 1), SEER data collected during the PLCO trial period (1993-2001) (scenario 2), and data from the European trial's control arm (1991-2005) (scenario 3). In all scenarios, noncompliance was corrected using incidence and survival rates for men with screen-detected cancer in the PLCO screening arm. Scenarios 1 and 3 showed a benefit of PSA screening, with relative risks of 0.62 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 0.72) and 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.83) for cancer-specific mortality after 20 years, respectively. In scenario 2, however, there was no benefit of screening. This simulation showed that after correcting for noncompliance and contamination, there is potential benefit of PSA screening in reducing prostate cancer mortality. It also demonstrates the utility of system dynamics modeling for synthesizing epidemiologic evidence to inform public policy. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

2016-04-01

Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as an important element in management and decision-making as problems in today's world are complex and require knowledge from many different domains and disciplines. Participation is also said to be a process of collective learning that changes the way people think and act which is a relevant point in forming appropriate region-specific climate adaptation strategies. The scenarios are based on an analysis of data on recent states and trends in major local sector developments concerning absolute and relative employment and value creation as well as on distinct socio-demographic developments in the region. Categories discussed in the scenario workshop cover inter alia institutions and governance, demographics, production and demand, markets, value-chains and trade, scientific and technological innovations, education and health. The derived stakeholder-based socio-economic scenarios were, in a second step, matched with the Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) in order to frame the locally produced scenarios with global narratives. Both strains were, in a third step, combined and backed-up by scientific literature in order to build the local socio-economic scenarios that served as background information in the analysis of risks, vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures in the case-study region.

Internet Technology for Future Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hennessy, Joseph F. (Technical Monitor); Rash, James; Casasanta, Ralph; Hogie, Keith

2002-01-01

Ongoing work at National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC), seeks to apply standard Internet applications and protocols to meet the technology challenge of future satellite missions. Internet protocols and technologies are under study as a future means to provide seamless dynamic communication among heterogeneous instruments, spacecraft, ground stations, constellations of spacecraft, and science investigators. The primary objective is to design and demonstrate in the laboratory the automated end-to-end transport of files in a simulated dynamic space environment using off-the-shelf, low-cost, commodity-level standard applications and protocols. The demonstrated functions and capabilities will become increasingly significant in the years to come as both earth and space science missions fly more sensors and the present labor-intensive, mission-specific techniques for processing and routing data become prohibitively. This paper describes how an IP-based communication architecture can support all existing operations concepts and how it will enable some new and complex communication and science concepts. The authors identify specific end-to-end data flows from the instruments to the control centers and scientists, and then describe how each data flow can be supported using standard Internet protocols and applications. The scenarios include normal data downlink and command uplink as well as recovery scenarios for both onboard and ground failures. The scenarios are based on an Earth orbiting spacecraft with downlink data rates from 300 Kbps to 4 Mbps. Included examples are based on designs currently being investigated for potential use by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission.

A blueprint for using climate change predictions in an eco-hydrological study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2009-12-01

There is a growing interest to extend climate change predictions to smaller, catchment-size scales and identify their implications on hydrological and ecological processes. Small scale processes are, in fact, expected to mediate climate changes, producing local effects and feedbacks that can interact with the principal consequences of the change. This is particularly applicable, when a complex interaction, such as the inter-relationship between the hydrological cycle and vegetation dynamics, is considered. This study presents a blueprint methodology for studying climate change impacts, as inferred from climate models, on eco-hydrological dynamics at the catchment scale. Climate conditions, present or future, are imposed through input hydrometeorological variables for hydrological and eco-hydrological models. These variables are simulated with an hourly weather generator as an outcome of a stochastic downscaling technique. The generator is parameterized to reproduce the climate of southwestern Arizona for present (1961-2000) and future (2081-2100) conditions. The methodology provides the capability to generate ensemble realizations for the future that take into account the heterogeneous nature of climate predictions from different models. The generated time series of meteorological variables for the two scenarios corresponding to the current and mean expected future serve as input to a coupled hydrological and vegetation dynamics model, “Tethys-Chloris”. The hydrological model reproduces essential components of the land-surface hydrological cycle, solving the mass and energy budget equations. The vegetation model parsimoniously parameterizes essential plant life-cycle processes, including photosynthesis, phenology, carbon allocation, and tissue turnover. The results for the two mean scenarios are compared and discussed in terms of changes in the hydrological balance components, energy fluxes, and indices of vegetation productivity The need to account for uncertainties in projections of future climate is discussed and a methodology for propagating these uncertainties into the probability density functions of changes in eco-hydrological variables is presented.

The shape and temporal dynamics of phylogenetic trees arising from geographic speciation.

PubMed

Pigot, Alex L; Phillimore, Albert B; Owens, Ian P F; Orme, C David L

2010-12-01

Phylogenetic trees often depart from the expectations of stochastic models, exhibiting imbalance in diversification among lineages and slowdowns in the rate of lineage accumulation through time. Such departures have led to a widespread perception that ecological differences among species or adaptation and subsequent niche filling are required to explain patterns of diversification. However, a key element missing from models of diversification is the geographical context of speciation and extinction. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of geographic range evolution and cladogenesis, where speciation arises via vicariance or peripatry, and explore the effects of these processes on patterns of diversification. We compare the results with those observed in 41 reconstructed avian trees. Our model shows that nonconstant rates of speciation and extinction are emergent properties of the apportioning of geographic ranges that accompanies speciation. The dynamics of diversification exhibit wide variation, depending on the mode of speciation, tendency for range expansion, and rate of range evolution. By varying these parameters, the model is able to capture many, but not all, of the features exhibited by birth-death trees and extant bird clades. Under scenarios with relatively stable geographic ranges, strong slowdowns in diversification rates are produced, with faster rates of range dynamics leading to constant or accelerating rates of apparent diversification. A peripatric model of speciation with stable ranges also generates highly unbalanced trees typical of bird phylogenies but fails to produce realistic range size distributions among the extant species. Results most similar to those of a birth-death process are reached under a peripatric speciation scenario with highly volatile range dynamics. Taken together, our results demonstrate that considering the geographical context of speciation and extinction provides a more conservative null model of diversification and offers a very different perspective on the phylogenetic patterns expected in the absence of ecology.

A virtual clinical trial comparing static versus dynamic PET imaging in measuring response to breast cancer therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wangerin, Kristen A.; Muzi, Mark; Peterson, Lanell M.; Linden, Hannah M.; Novakova, Alena; Mankoff, David A.; E Kinahan, Paul

2017-05-01

We developed a method to evaluate variations in the PET imaging process in order to characterize the relative ability of static and dynamic metrics to measure breast cancer response to therapy in a clinical trial setting. We performed a virtual clinical trial by generating 540 independent and identically distributed PET imaging study realizations for each of 22 original dynamic fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) breast cancer patient studies pre- and post-therapy. Each noise realization accounted for known sources of uncertainty in the imaging process, such as biological variability and SUV uptake time. Four definitions of SUV were analyzed, which were SUVmax, SUVmean, SUVpeak, and SUV50%. We performed a ROC analysis on the resulting SUV and kinetic parameter uncertainty distributions to assess the impact of the variability on the measurement capabilities of each metric. The kinetic macro parameter, K i , showed more variability than SUV (mean CV K i   =  17%, SUV  =  13%), but K i pre- and post-therapy distributions also showed increased separation compared to the SUV pre- and post-therapy distributions (mean normalized difference K i   =  0.54, SUV  =  0.27). For the patients who did not show perfect separation between the pre- and post-therapy parameter uncertainty distributions (ROC AUC  <  1), dynamic imaging outperformed SUV in distinguishing metabolic change in response to therapy, ranging from 12 to 14 of 16 patients over all SUV definitions and uptake time scenarios (p  <  0.05). For the patient cohort in this study, which is comprised of non-high-grade ER+  tumors, K i outperformed SUV in an ROC analysis of the parameter uncertainty distributions pre- and post-therapy. This methodology can be applied to different scenarios with the ability to inform the design of clinical trials using PET imaging.

2005 USSOCOM Chemical, Biological, Radiological Conference and Exhibition

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-08

Cree, Inc. 22 Signal respose to releases 12:42 12:48 12:54 13:0 13:6 13:12 13:18 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 x 10-3 Processed Data for AS-B2-009-09-03-05...acrid smell and onset of nerve agent symptoms Confidential USSOCOM Scenario 3: Chemical Agent Attack • First responders don their Self -Contained...Nuclear (CBRN) detectors Smart Threads is a dynamic, easily expandable, self - configuring platform Smart Threads Integrated Radiation Sensors (STIRS

Functional connectivity dynamically evolves on multiple time-scales over a static structural connectome: Models and mechanisms.

PubMed

Cabral, Joana; Kringelbach, Morten L; Deco, Gustavo

2017-10-15

Over the last decade, we have observed a revolution in brain structural and functional Connectomics. On one hand, we have an ever-more detailed characterization of the brain's white matter structural connectome. On the other, we have a repertoire of consistent functional networks that form and dissipate over time during rest. Despite the evident spatial similarities between structural and functional connectivity, understanding how different time-evolving functional networks spontaneously emerge from a single structural network requires analyzing the problem from the perspective of complex network dynamics and dynamical system's theory. In that direction, bottom-up computational models are useful tools to test theoretical scenarios and depict the mechanisms at the genesis of resting-state activity. Here, we provide an overview of the different mechanistic scenarios proposed over the last decade via computational models. Importantly, we highlight the need of incorporating additional model constraints considering the properties observed at finer temporal scales with MEG and the dynamical properties of FC in order to refresh the list of candidate scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Designing Agent Collectives For Systems With Markovian Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.; Lawson, John W.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The "Collective Intelligence" (COIN) framework concerns the design of collectives of agents so that as those agents strive to maximize their individual utility functions, their interaction causes a provided "world" utility function concerning the entire collective to be also maximized. Here we show how to extend that framework to scenarios having Markovian dynamics when no re-evolution of the system from counter-factual initial conditions (an often expensive calculation) is permitted. Our approach transforms the (time-extended) argument of each agent's utility function before evaluating that function. This transformation has benefits in scenarios not involving Markovian dynamics, in particular scenarios where not all of the arguments of an agent's utility function are observable. We investigate this transformation in simulations involving both linear and quadratic (nonlinear) dynamics. In addition, we find that a certain subset of these transformations, which result in utilities that have low "opacity (analogous to having high signal to noise) but are not "factored" (analogous to not being incentive compatible), reliably improve performance over that arising with factored utilities. We also present a Taylor Series method for the fully general nonlinear case.

A dynamic model of soil salinity and drainage generation in irrigated agriculture: A framework for policy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinar, Ariel; Aillery, Marcel P.; Moore, Michael R.

1993-06-01

This paper presents a dynamic model of irrigated agriculture that accounts for drainage generation and salinity accumulation. Critical model relationships involving crop production, soil salinity, and irrigation drainage are based on newly estimated functions derived from lysimeter field tests. The model allocates land and water inputs over time based on an intertemporal profit maximization objective function and soil salinity accumulation process. The model is applied to conditions in the San Joaquin Valley of California, where environmental degradation from irrigation drainage has become a policy issue. Findings indicate that in the absence of regulation, drainage volumes increase over time before reaching a steady state as increased quantities of water are allocated to leaching soil salts. The model is used to evaluate alternative drainage abatement scenarios involving drainage quotas and taxes, water supply quotas and taxes, and irrigation technology subsidies. In our example, direct drainage policies are more cost-effective in reducing drainage than policies operating indirectly through surface water use, although differences in cost efficiency are relatively small. In some cases, efforts to control drainage may result in increased soil salinity accumulation, with implications for long-term cropland productivity. While policy adjustments may alter the direction and duration of convergence to a steady state, findings suggest that a dynamic model specification may not be necessary due to rapid convergence to a comon steady state under selected scenarios.

Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

2015-12-01

Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

Adaptive Detection and ISI Mitigation for Mobile Molecular Communication.

PubMed

Chang, Ge; Lin, Lin; Yan, Hao

2018-03-01

Current studies on modulation and detection schemes in molecular communication mainly focus on the scenarios with static transmitters and receivers. However, mobile molecular communication is needed in many envisioned applications, such as target tracking and drug delivery. Until now, investigations about mobile molecular communication have been limited. In this paper, a static transmitter and a mobile bacterium-based receiver performing random walk are considered. In this mobile scenario, the channel impulse response changes due to the dynamic change of the distance between the transmitter and the receiver. Detection schemes based on fixed distance fail in signal detection in such a scenario. Furthermore, the intersymbol interference (ISI) effect becomes more complex due to the dynamic character of the signal which makes the estimation and mitigation of the ISI even more difficult. In this paper, an adaptive ISI mitigation method and two adaptive detection schemes are proposed for this mobile scenario. In the proposed scheme, adaptive ISI mitigation, estimation of dynamic distance, and the corresponding impulse response reconstruction are performed in each symbol interval. Based on the dynamic channel impulse response in each interval, two adaptive detection schemes, concentration-based adaptive threshold detection and peak-time-based adaptive detection, are proposed for signal detection. Simulations demonstrate that the ISI effect is significantly reduced and the adaptive detection schemes are reliable and robust for mobile molecular communication.

Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson; Raymond Drapeck

2008-01-01

The response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change was simulated for California using the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined, and increases in the productivity of evergreen hardwoods led to the displacement of Evergreen Conifer Forest by Mixed...

A toolbox for determining subdiffusive mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meroz, Yasmine; Sokolov, Igor M.

2015-04-01

Subdiffusive processes have become a field of great interest in the last decades, due to amounting experimental evidence of subdiffusive behavior in complex systems, and especially in biological systems. Different physical scenarios leading to subdiffusion differ in the details of the dynamics. These differences are what allow to theoretically reconstruct the underlying physics from the results of observations, and will be the topic of this review. We review the main statistical analyses available today to distinguish between these scenarios, categorizing them according to the relevant characteristics. We collect the available tools and statistical tests, presenting them within a broader perspective. We also consider possible complications such as the subordination of subdiffusive mechanisms. Due to the advances in single particle tracking experiments in recent years, we focus on the relevant case of where the available experimental data is scant, at the level of single trajectories.

Robotic disaster recovery efforts with ad-hoc deployable cloud computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straub, Jeremy; Marsh, Ronald; Mohammad, Atif F.

2013-06-01

Autonomous operations of search and rescue (SaR) robots is an ill posed problem, which is complexified by the dynamic disaster recovery environment. In a typical SaR response scenario, responder robots will require different levels of processing capabilities during various parts of the response effort and will need to utilize multiple algorithms. Placing these capabilities onboard the robot is a mediocre solution that precludes algorithm specific performance optimization and results in mediocre performance. Architecture for an ad-hoc, deployable cloud environment suitable for use in a disaster response scenario is presented. Under this model, each service provider is optimized for the task and maintains a database of situation-relevant information. This service-oriented architecture (SOA 3.0) compliant framework also serves as an example of the efficient use of SOA 3.0 in an actual cloud application.

Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Andrews, Michael A.; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Wang, Lin; Bauch, Chris T.

2015-12-01

It is increasingly recognized that a key component of successful infection control efforts is understanding the complex, two-way interaction between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics. Human behavior such as contact precautions and social distancing clearly influence disease prevalence, but disease prevalence can in turn alter human behavior, forming a coupled, nonlinear system. Moreover, in many cases, the spatial structure of the population cannot be ignored, such that social and behavioral processes and/or transmission of infection must be represented with complex networks. Research on studying coupled disease-behavior dynamics in complex networks in particular is growing rapidly, and frequently makes use of analysis methods and concepts from statistical physics. Here, we review some of the growing literature in this area. We contrast network-based approaches to homogeneous-mixing approaches, point out how their predictions differ, and describe the rich and often surprising behavior of disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks, and compare them to processes in statistical physics. We discuss how these models can capture the dynamics that characterize many real-world scenarios, thereby suggesting ways that policy makers can better design effective prevention strategies. We also describe the growing sources of digital data that are facilitating research in this area. Finally, we suggest pitfalls which might be faced by researchers in the field, and we suggest several ways in which the field could move forward in the coming years.

The ADER-DG method for seismic wave propagation and earthquake rupture dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelties, Christian; Gabriel, Alice; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; de la Puente, Josep; Käser, Martin

2013-04-01

We will present the Arbitrary high-order DERivatives Discontinuous Galerkin (ADER-DG) method for solving the combined elastodynamic wave propagation and dynamic rupture problem. The ADER-DG method enables high-order accuracy in space and time while being implemented on unstructured tetrahedral meshes. A tetrahedral element discretization provides rapid and automatized mesh generation as well as geometrical flexibility. Features as mesh coarsening and local time stepping schemes can be applied to reduce computational efforts without introducing numerical artifacts. The method is well suited for parallelization and large scale high-performance computing since only directly neighboring elements exchange information via numerical fluxes. The concept of fluxes is a key ingredient of the numerical scheme as it governs the numerical dispersion and diffusion properties and allows to accommodate for boundary conditions, empirical friction laws of dynamic rupture processes, or the combination of different element types and non-conforming mesh transitions. After introducing fault dynamics into the ADER-DG framework, we will demonstrate its specific advantages in benchmarking test scenarios provided by the SCEC/USGS Spontaneous Rupture Code Verification Exercise. An important result of the benchmark is that the ADER-DG method avoids spurious high-frequency contributions in the slip rate spectra and therefore does not require artificial Kelvin-Voigt damping, filtering or other modifications of the produced synthetic seismograms. To demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed scheme we simulate an earthquake scenario, inspired by the 1992 Landers earthquake, that includes branching and curved fault segments. Furthermore, topography is respected in the discretized model to capture the surface waves correctly. The advanced geometrical flexibility combined with an enhanced accuracy will make the ADER-DG method a useful tool to study earthquake dynamics on complex fault systems in realistic rheologies.

Aircraft accident investigation: the decision-making in initial action scenario.

PubMed

Barreto, Marcia M; Ribeiro, Selma L O

2012-01-01

In the complex aeronautical environment, the efforts in terms of operational safety involve the adoption of proactive and reactive measures. The process of investigation begins right after the occurrence of the aeronautical accident, through the initial action. Thus, it is in the crisis scenario, that the person responsible for the initial action makes decisions and gathers the necessary information for the subsequent phases of the investigation process. Within this scenario, which is a natural environment, researches have shown the fragility of rational models of decision making. The theoretical perspective of naturalistic decision making constitutes a breakthrough in the understanding of decision problems demanded by real world. The proposal of this study was to verify if the initial action, after the occurrence of an accident, and the decision-making strategies, used by the investigators responsible for this activity, are characteristic of the naturalistic decision making theoretical approach. To attend the proposed objective a descriptive research was undertaken with a sample of professionals that work in this activity. The data collected through individual interviews were analyzed and the results demonstrated that the initial action environment, which includes restricted time, dynamic conditions, the presence of multiple actors, stress and insufficient information is characteristic of the naturalistic decision making. They also demonstrated that, when the investigators make their decisions, they use their experience and the mental simulation, intuition, improvisation, metaphors and analogues cases, as strategies, all of them related to the naturalistic approach of decision making, in order to satisfy the needs of the situation and reach the objectives of the initial action in the accident scenario.

Comparison: Discovery on WSMOLX and miAamics/jABC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubczak, Christian; Vitvar, Tomas; Winkler, Christian; Zaharia, Raluca; Zaremba, Maciej

This chapter compares the solutions to the SWS-Challenge discovery problems provided by DERI Galway and the joint solution from the Technical University of Dortmund and University of Postdam. The two approaches are described in depth in Chapters 10 and 13. The discovery scenario raises problems associated with making service discovery an automated process. It requires fine-grained specifications of search requests and service functionality including support for fetching dynamic information during the discovery process (e.g., shipment price). Both teams utilize semantics to describe services, service requests and data models in order to enable search at the required fine-grained level of detail.

Linking river management to species conservation using dynamic landscape scale models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Mary C.; Buell, Gary R.; Hay, Lauren E.; Hughes, W. Brian; Jacobson, Robert B.; Jones, John W.; Jones, S.A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Peterson, James T.; Riley, Jeffrey W.; Schindler, J. Stephen; Shea, C.; Weaver, J.D.

2013-01-01

Efforts to conserve stream and river biota could benefit from tools that allow managers to evaluate landscape-scale changes in species distributions in response to water management decisions. We present a framework and methods for integrating hydrology, geographic context and metapopulation processes to simulate effects of changes in streamflow on fish occupancy dynamics across a landscape of interconnected stream segments. We illustrate this approach using a 482 km2 catchment in the southeastern US supporting 50 or more stream fish species. A spatially distributed, deterministic and physically based hydrologic model is used to simulate daily streamflow for sub-basins composing the catchment. We use geographic data to characterize stream segments with respect to channel size, confinement, position and connectedness within the stream network. Simulated streamflow dynamics are then applied to model fish metapopulation dynamics in stream segments, using hypothesized effects of streamflow magnitude and variability on population processes, conditioned by channel characteristics. The resulting time series simulate spatially explicit, annual changes in species occurrences or assemblage metrics (e.g. species richness) across the catchment as outcomes of management scenarios. Sensitivity analyses using alternative, plausible links between streamflow components and metapopulation processes, or allowing for alternative modes of fish dispersal, demonstrate large effects of ecological uncertainty on model outcomes and highlight needed research and monitoring. Nonetheless, with uncertainties explicitly acknowledged, dynamic, landscape-scale simulations may prove useful for quantitatively comparing river management alternatives with respect to species conservation.

The dynamic nature of the reconsolidation process and its boundary conditions: Evidence based on human tests.

PubMed

Fernández, Rodrigo S; Bavassi, Luz; Forcato, Cecilia; Pedreira, María E

2016-04-01

The reconsolidation process is the mechanism by which the strength and/or content of consolidated memories are updated. This process is triggered by the presentation of a reminder (training cues). It is not always possible to trigger the reconsolidation process. For example, memory age and strength are boundary conditions for the reconsolidation process. Here, we investigated the dynamic changes in these conditions. We propose that the boundary conditions of the reconsolidation process are not fixed and vary as a consequence of the interaction between memory features and reminder characteristics. To modify memory properties, participants received a threatening social protocol that improves memory acquisition or a control condition (fake, without social interaction) prior to learning pairs of meaningless syllables. To determine whether a strong young or old declarative memory undergoes the reconsolidation process, we used an interference task (a second list of pairs of meaningless syllables) to disrupt memory re-stabilization. To assess whether the older memory could be strengthened, we repeated the triggering of reconsolidation. Strong young or old memories modulated by a threatening experience could be interfered during reconsolidation and updated (strengthened) by reconsolidation. Rather than being fixed, boundary conditions vary according to the memory features (strong memory), which indicates the dynamic nature of the reconsolidation process. Our findings demonstrate that it is possible to modify these limits by recruiting the reconsolidation process and making it functionally operative again. This novel scenario opens the possibility to new therapeutically approaches that take into account the reconsolidation process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolutions Of Diff-Tomo For Sensing Subcanopy Deformations And Height-Varying Temporal Coherence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardini, Fabrizio; Cai, Francesco

2012-01-01

Interest is continuing to grow in advanced interferometric SAR methods for sensing complex scenarios with multiple (layover or volumetric) scatterers mapped in the SAR cell. Multibaseline SAR tomographic (3D) elevation beam forming is a promising technique in this field. Recently, the Tomo concept has been integrated with the differential interferometry concept, producing the advanced “differential tomography” (Diff-Tomo, “4D”) processing mode which furnishes “space-time” signatures of multiple scatterer dynamics in the SAR cell. Advances in the application of this new framework are investigated for complex volume scattering scenarios including temporal signal variations, both from scatterer temporal decorrelation and deformation motions. In particular, new results are reported concerning the potentials of Diff-Tomo for the analysis of forest scenarios, based on the original concept of the space-time signatures of temporal decorrelation. E-SAR P-band data results are expanded of tomography robust to temporal decorrelation, and first trials are reported of separation of different temporal decorrelation mechanisms of canopy and ground, and of sensing possible sub-canopy subsidences.

Analysis and simulation of water-level, specific conductance, and total phosphorus dynamics of the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida, 1995-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Roehl, Edwin A.

2010-01-01

Two scenarios were simulated with the LOXANN DSS. One scenario increased the historical flows at four control structures by 40 percent. The second scenario used a user-defined hydrograph to set the outflow from the Refuge to the weekly average inflow to the Refuge delayed by 2 days. Both scenarios decreased the potential of canal water intruding into the marsh by decreasing the slope of the water level between the canals and the marsh.

Recent CESAR (Center for Engineering Systems Advanced Research) research activities in sensor based reasoning for autonomous machines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pin, F.G.; de Saussure, G.; Spelt, P.F.

1988-01-01

This paper describes recent research activities at the Center for Engineering Systems Advanced Research (CESAR) in the area of sensor based reasoning, with emphasis being given to their application and implementation on our HERMIES-IIB autonomous mobile vehicle. These activities, including navigation and exploration in a-priori unknown and dynamic environments, goal recognition, vision-guided manipulation and sensor-driven machine learning, are discussed within the framework of a scenario in which an autonomous robot is asked to navigate through an unknown dynamic environment, explore, find and dock at the panel, read and understand the status of the panel's meters and dials, learn the functioningmore » of a process control panel, and successfully manipulate the control devices of the panel to solve a maintenance emergency problems. A demonstration of the successful implementation of the algorithms on our HERMIES-IIB autonomous robot for resolution of this scenario is presented. Conclusions are drawn concerning the applicability of the methodologies to more general classes of problems and implications for future work on sensor-driven reasoning for autonomous robots are discussed. 8 refs., 3 figs.« less

Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkepli, Jafri; Fong, Chan Hwa; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal

2015-12-01

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

2017-12-01

The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

Policy Model of Sustainable Infrastructure Development (Case Study : Bandarlampung City, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persada, C.; Sitorus, S. R. P.; Marimin; Djakapermana, R. D.

2018-03-01

Infrastructure development does not only affect the economic aspect, but also social and environmental, those are the main dimensions of sustainable development. Many aspects and actors involved in urban infrastructure development requires a comprehensive and integrated policy towards sustainability. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate an infrastructure development policy that considers various dimensions of sustainable development. The main objective of this research is to formulate policy of sustainable infrastructure development. In this research, urban infrastructure covers transportation, water systems (drinking water, storm water, wastewater), green open spaces and solid waste. This research was conducted in Bandarlampung City. This study use a comprehensive modeling, namely the Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) with Rapid Appraisal of Infrastructure (Rapinfra), it uses of Analytic Network Process (ANP) and it uses system dynamics model. The findings of the MDS analysis showed that the status of Bandarlampung City infrastructure sustainability is less sustainable. The ANP analysis produces 8 main indicators of the most influential in the development of sustainable infrastructure. The system dynamics model offered 4 scenarios of sustainable urban infrastructure policy model. The best scenario was implemented into 3 policies consist of: the integrated infrastructure management, the population control, and the local economy development.

HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

2017-01-01

The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

Action versus Result-Oriented Schemes in a Grassland Agroecosystem: A Dynamic Modelling Approach

PubMed Central

Sabatier, Rodolphe; Doyen, Luc; Tichit, Muriel

2012-01-01

Effects of agri-environment schemes (AES) on biodiversity remain controversial. While most AES are action-oriented, result-oriented and habitat-oriented schemes have recently been proposed as a solution to improve AES efficiency. The objective of this study was to compare action-oriented, habitat-oriented and result-oriented schemes in terms of ecological and productive performance as well as in terms of management flexibility. We developed a dynamic modelling approach based on the viable control framework to carry out a long term assessment of the three schemes in a grassland agroecosystem. The model explicitly links grazed grassland dynamics to bird population dynamics. It is applied to lapwing conservation in wet grasslands in France. We ran the model to assess the three AES scenarios. The model revealed the grazing strategies respecting ecological and productive constraints specific to each scheme. Grazing strategies were assessed by both their ecological and productive performance. The viable control approach made it possible to obtain the whole set of viable grazing strategies and therefore to quantify the management flexibility of the grassland agroecosystem. Our results showed that habitat and result-oriented scenarios led to much higher ecological performance than the action-oriented one. Differences in both ecological and productive performance between the habitat and result-oriented scenarios were limited. Flexibility of the grassland agroecosystem in the result-oriented scenario was much higher than in that of habitat-oriented scenario. Our model confirms the higher flexibility as well as the better ecological and productive performance of result-oriented schemes. A larger use of result-oriented schemes in conservation may also allow farmers to adapt their management to local conditions and to climatic variations. PMID:22496746

Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Sun, Zhiyong; Minsker, Barbara

2017-11-01

Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a nonlinear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings, and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

Implementation of system dynamic simulation method to optimize profit in supply chain network of vegetable product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tama, I. P.; Akbar, Z.; Eunike, A.

2018-04-01

Vegetables are categorized as a perishable product, which is a product with short lifespan thus requires proper handling and planning to reduce losses caused by the short lifespan. In order to reduce the losses, coordination among the players in the supply chain is required. On the other hand, the decision in the supply chain of vegetables and other farming products in the traditional market of developing country is independent among the players. This research is conducted by using System Dynamic Simulation method to develop model and scenario by coordinating the supply quantity amongst players in the supply chain. The scenarios are developed based on newsboy inventory model. This study aims to compare scenarios combining tiers involved in coordination program. The result shows that coordination in supply chain increases total supply chain profit, although there will always be players who experienced decrements in profit. The scenario of coordination among the farmer, the distributor, and the wholesaler resulted in the highest increase in total supply chain profit compared to other coordination scenarios, with an increased value of 10.49%.

Black Hole Formation in Randall-Sundrum II Braneworlds.

PubMed

Wang, Daoyan; Choptuik, Matthew W

2016-07-01

We present the first numerical study of the full dynamics of a braneworld scenario, working within the framework of the single brane model of Randall and Sundrum. In particular, we study the process of gravitational collapse driven by a massless scalar field which is confined to the brane. Imposing spherical symmetry on the brane, we show that the evolutions of sufficiently strong initial configurations of the scalar field result in black holes that have finite extension into the bulk. Furthermore, we find preliminary evidence that the black holes generated form a unique sequence, irrespective of the details of the initial data. The black hole solutions we obtain from dynamical evolutions are consistent with those previously computed from a static vacuum ansatz.

Current perspectives on the dynamics of antibiotic resistance in different reservoirs.

PubMed

Caniça, Manuela; Manageiro, Vera; Jones-Dias, Daniela; Clemente, Lurdes; Gomes-Neves, Eduarda; Poeta, Patrícia; Dias, Elsa; Ferreira, Eugénia

2015-09-01

Antibiotic resistance consists of a dynamic web. In this review, we describe the path by which different antibiotic residues and antibiotic resistance genes disseminate among relevant reservoirs (human, animal, and environmental settings), evaluating how these events contribute to the current scenario of antibiotic resistance. The relationship between the spread of resistance and the contribution of different genetic elements and events is revisited, exploring examples of the processes by which successful mobile resistance genes spread across different niches. The importance of classic and next generation molecular approaches, as well as action plans and policies which might aid in the fight against antibiotic resistance, are also reviewed. Copyright © 2015 Institut Pasteur. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Dynamical complexity of short and noisy time series. Compression-Complexity vs. Shannon entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagaraj, Nithin; Balasubramanian, Karthi

2017-07-01

Shannon entropy has been extensively used for characterizing complexity of time series arising from chaotic dynamical systems and stochastic processes such as Markov chains. However, for short and noisy time series, Shannon entropy performs poorly. Complexity measures which are based on lossless compression algorithms are a good substitute in such scenarios. We evaluate the performance of two such Compression-Complexity Measures namely Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZ) and Effort-To-Compress (ETC) on short time series from chaotic dynamical systems in the presence of noise. Both LZ and ETC outperform Shannon entropy (H) in accurately characterizing the dynamical complexity of such systems. For very short binary sequences (which arise in neuroscience applications), ETC has higher number of distinct complexity values than LZ and H, thus enabling a finer resolution. For two-state ergodic Markov chains, we empirically show that ETC converges to a steady state value faster than LZ. Compression-Complexity measures are promising for applications which involve short and noisy time series.

Policy reconciliation for access control in dynamic cross-enterprise collaborations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preuveneers, D.; Joosen, W.; Ilie-Zudor, E.

2018-03-01

In dynamic cross-enterprise collaborations, different enterprises form a - possibly temporary - business relationship. To integrate their business processes, enterprises may need to grant each other limited access to their information systems. Authentication and authorization are key to secure information handling. However, access control policies often rely on non-standardized attributes to describe the roles and permissions of their employees which convolutes cross-organizational authorization when business relationships evolve quickly. Our framework addresses the managerial overhead of continuous updates to access control policies for enterprise information systems to accommodate disparate attribute usage. By inferring attribute relationships, our framework facilitates attribute and policy reconciliation, and automatically aligns dynamic entitlements during the evaluation of authorization decisions. We validate our framework with a Industry 4.0 motivating scenario on networked production where such dynamic cross-enterprise collaborations are quintessential. The evaluation reveals the capabilities and performance of our framework, and illustrates the feasibility of liberating the security administrator from manually provisioning and aligning attributes, and verifying the consistency of access control policies for cross-enterprise collaborations.

Improvements in flight table dynamic transparency for hardware-in-the-loop facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMore, Louis A.; Mackin, Rob; Swamp, Michael; Rusterholtz, Roger

2000-07-01

Flight tables are a 'necessary evil' in the Hardware-In-The- Loop (HWIL) simulation. Adding the actual or prototypic flight hardware to the loop, in order to increase the realism of the simulation, forces us to add motion simulation to the process. Flight table motion bases bring unwanted dynamics, non- linearities, transport delays, etc to an already difficult problem sometimes requiring the simulation engineer to compromise the results. We desire that the flight tables be 'dynamically transparent' to the simulation scenario. This paper presents a State Variable Feedback (SVF) control system architecture with feed-forward techniques that improves the flight table's dynamic transparency by significantly reducing the table's low frequency phase lag. We offer some actual results with existing flight tables that demonstrate the improved transparency. These results come from a demonstration conducted on a flight table in the KHILS laboratory at Eglin AFB and during a refurbishment of a flight table for the Boeing Company of St. Charles, Missouri.

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Makowski, David; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Bassu, Simona; Durand, Jean-Louis; Martre, Pierre; Adam, Myriam; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos; Baron, Chritian;

A stochastic approach for quantifying immigrant integration: the Spanish test case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agliari, Elena; Barra, Adriano; Contucci, Pierluigi; Sandell, Richard; Vernia, Cecilia

2014-10-01

We apply stochastic process theory to the analysis of immigrant integration. Using a unique and detailed data set from Spain, we study the relationship between local immigrant density and two social and two economic immigration quantifiers for the period 1999-2010. As opposed to the classic time-series approach, by letting immigrant density play the role of ‘time’ and the quantifier the role of ‘space,’ it becomes possible to analyse the behavior of the quantifiers by means of continuous time random walks. Two classes of results are then obtained. First, we show that social integration quantifiers evolve following diffusion law, while the evolution of economic quantifiers exhibits ballistic dynamics. Second, we make predictions of best- and worst-case scenarios taking into account large local fluctuations. Our stochastic process approach to integration lends itself to interesting forecasting scenarios which, in the hands of policy makers, have the potential to improve political responses to integration problems. For instance, estimating the standard first-passage time and maximum-span walk reveals local differences in integration performance for different immigration scenarios. Thus, by recognizing the importance of local fluctuations around national means, this research constitutes an important tool to assess the impact of immigration phenomena on municipal budgets and to set up solid multi-ethnic plans at the municipal level as immigration pressures build.

Autonomous Collision-Free Navigation of Microvehicles in Complex and Dynamically Changing Environments.

PubMed

Li, Tianlong; Chang, Xiaocong; Wu, Zhiguang; Li, Jinxing; Shao, Guangbin; Deng, Xinghong; Qiu, Jianbin; Guo, Bin; Zhang, Guangyu; He, Qiang; Li, Longqiu; Wang, Joseph

2017-09-26

Self-propelled micro- and nanoscale robots represent a rapidly emerging and fascinating robotics research area. However, designing autonomous and adaptive control systems for operating micro/nanorobotics in complex and dynamically changing environments, which is a highly demanding feature, is still an unmet challenge. Here we describe a smart microvehicle for precise autonomous navigation in complicated environments and traffic scenarios. The fully autonomous navigation system of the smart microvehicle is composed of a microscope-coupled CCD camera, an artificial intelligence planner, and a magnetic field generator. The microscope-coupled CCD camera provides real-time localization of the chemically powered Janus microsphere vehicle and environmental detection for path planning to generate optimal collision-free routes, while the moving direction of the microrobot toward a reference position is determined by the external electromagnetic torque. Real-time object detection offers adaptive path planning in response to dynamically changing environments. We demonstrate that the autonomous navigation system can guide the vehicle movement in complex patterns, in the presence of dynamically changing obstacles, and in complex biological environments. Such a navigation system for micro/nanoscale vehicles, relying on vision-based close-loop control and path planning, is highly promising for their autonomous operation in complex dynamic settings and unpredictable scenarios expected in a variety of realistic nanoscale scenarios.

Brain response to empathy-eliciting scenarios involving pain in incarcerated psychopaths

PubMed Central

Decety, Jean; Skelly, Laurie R.; Kiehl, Kent A.

2013-01-01

Context A marked lack of empathy is a hallmark characteristic of individuals with psychopathy. However, neural response associated to empathic processing has not yet been directly examined in psychopathy especially in response to the perception of other people in pain and distress. Objective To identify potential differences in patterns of neural activity in incarcerated psychopaths and incarcerated controls during the perception of empathy-eliciting stimuli depicting other people in pain. Design In a case-control study, brain activation patterns elicited by dynamic stimuli depicting individuals being harmed and facial expression of pain were compared between incarcerated psychopaths and incarcerated controls. Setting Participants were scanned in on the grounds of a correctional facility using the Mind Research Network's mobile 1.5 T MRI system. Participants Eighty incarcerated males were classified according to scores on the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) as high (n = 27; PCL-R =30), intermediate (n = 28; PCL-R between 21–29), or low (n = 25; PCL-R ≤20) on psychopathy. Main Outcome Measure Neuro-hemodynamic response to empathy-eliciting dynamic scenarios revealed by functional magnetic resonance imaging. Results Psychopaths exhibited significantly less activation in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, lateral orbitofrontal cortex, and periaqueductal gray relative to controls, but showed greater activation in the insula. Conclusion In response to pain cues expressed by others, psychopaths exhibit deficits in vmPFC and OFC regardless of stimulus type, but display selective impairment in processing facial cues of distress in regions associated with cognitive mentalizing. PMID:23615636

Repetition-related reductions in neural activity reveal component processes of mental simulation.

PubMed

Szpunar, Karl K; St Jacques, Peggy L; Robbins, Clifford A; Wig, Gagan S; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-05-01

In everyday life, people adaptively prepare for the future by simulating dynamic events about impending interactions with people, objects and locations. Previous research has consistently demonstrated that a distributed network of frontal-parietal-temporal brain regions supports this ubiquitous mental activity. Nonetheless, little is known about the manner in which specific regions of this network contribute to component features of future simulation. In two experiments, we used a functional magnetic resonance (fMR)-repetition suppression paradigm to demonstrate that distinct frontal-parietal-temporal regions are sensitive to processing the scenarios or what participants imagined was happening in an event (e.g., medial prefrontal, posterior cingulate, temporal-parietal and middle temporal cortices are sensitive to the scenarios associated with future social events), people (medial prefrontal cortex), objects (inferior frontal and premotor cortices) and locations (posterior cingulate/retrosplenial, parahippocampal and posterior parietal cortices) that typically constitute simulations of personal future events. This pattern of results demonstrates that the neural substrates of these component features of event simulations can be reliably identified in the context of a task that requires participants to simulate complex, everyday future experiences.

Synthetic circuit designs for earth terraformation.

PubMed

Solé, Ricard V; Montañez, Raúl; Duran-Nebreda, Salva

2015-07-18

Mounting evidence indicates that our planet might experience runaway effects associated to rising temperatures and ecosystem overexploitation, leading to catastrophic shifts on short time scales. Remediation scenarios capable of counterbalancing these effects involve geoengineering, sustainable practices and carbon sequestration, among others. None of these scenarios seems powerful enough to achieve the desired restoration of safe boundaries. We hypothesize that synthetic organisms with the appropriate engineering design could be used to safely prevent declines in some stressed ecosystems and help improving carbon sequestration. Such schemes would include engineering mutualistic dependencies preventing undesired evolutionary processes. We hypothesize that some particular design principles introduce unescapable constraints to the engineered organisms that act as effective firewalls. Testing this designed organisms can be achieved by using controlled bioreactor models, with single and heterogeneous populations, and accurate computational models including different scales (from genetic constructs and metabolic pathways to population dynamics). Our hypothesis heads towards a future anthropogenic action that should effectively act as Terraforming processes. It also implies a major challenge in the existing biosafety policies, since we suggest release of modified organisms as potentially necessary strategy for success.

Shuttle Abort Flight Management (SAFM) - Application Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, Howard; Straube, Tim; Madsen, Jennifer; Ricard, Mike

2002-01-01

One of the most demanding tasks that must be performed by the Space Shuttle flight crew is the process of determining whether, when and where to abort the vehicle should engine or system failures occur during ascent or entry. Current Shuttle abort procedures involve paging through complicated paper checklists to decide on the type of abort and where to abort. Additional checklists then lead the crew through a series of actions to execute the desired abort. This process is even more difficult and time consuming in the absence of ground communications since the ground flight controllers have the analysis tools and information that is currently not available in the Shuttle cockpit. Crew workload specifically abort procedures will be greatly simplified with the implementation of the Space Shuttle Cockpit Avionics Upgrade (CAU) project. The intent of CAU is to maximize crew situational awareness and reduce flight workload thru enhanced controls and displays, and onboard abort assessment and determination capability. SAFM was developed to help satisfy the CAU objectives by providing the crew with dynamic information about the capability of the vehicle to perform a variety of abort options during ascent and entry. This paper- presents an overview of the SAFM application. As shown in Figure 1, SAFM processes the vehicle navigation state and other guidance information to provide the CAU displays with evaluations of abort options, as well as landing site recommendations. This is accomplished by three main SAFM components: the Sequencer Executive, the Powered Flight Function, and the Glided Flight Function, The Sequencer Executive dispatches the Powered and Glided Flight Functions to evaluate the vehicle's capability to execute the current mission (or current abort), as well as more than IS hypothetical abort options or scenarios. Scenarios are sequenced and evaluated throughout powered and glided flight. Abort scenarios evaluated include Abort to Orbit (ATO), Transatlantic Abort Landing (TAL), East Coast Abort Landing (ECAL) and Return to Launch Site (RTLS). Sequential and simultaneous engine failures are assessed and landing footprint information is provided during actual entry scenarios as well as hypothetical "loss of thrust now" scenarios during ascent.

Dynamic detailed model of a molten salt tower receiver, with ThermoSysPro library: Impacts of several failures or operational transients on the receiver dynamic behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hefni, Baligh El; Bourdil, Charles

2017-06-01

Molten salt technology represents nowadays the most cost-effective technology for electricity generation for solar power plant. The molten salt tower receiver is based on a field of individually sun-tracking mirrors (heliostats) that reflect the incident sunshine to a receiver at the top of a centrally located tower. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of several transients issued from different scenarios (failure or normal operation mode) on the receiver dynamic behavior. A dynamic detailed model of Solar Two molten salt central receiver has been developed. The component model is meant to be used for receiver modeling with the ThermoSysPro library, developed by EDF. The paper also gives the results of the dynamic simulation for the selected scenarios on Solar Two receiver.

Control of a flexible bracing manipulator: Integration of current research work to realize the bracing manipulator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwon, Dong-Soo

1991-01-01

All research results about flexible manipulator control were integrated to show a control scenario of a bracing manipulator. First, dynamic analysis of a flexible manipulator was done for modeling. Second, from the dynamic model, the inverse dynamic equation was derived, and the time domain inverse dynamic method was proposed for the calculation of the feedforward torque and the desired flexible coordinate trajectories. Third, a tracking controller was designed by combining the inverse dynamic feedforward control with the joint feedback control. The control scheme was applied to the tip position control of a single link flexible manipulator for zero and non-zero initial condition cases. Finally, the contact control scheme was added to the position tracking control. A control scenario of a bracing manipulator is provided and evaluated through simulation and experiment on a single link flexible manipulator.

How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

PubMed

Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

2016-02-01

Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

Periodic Phenomena In Laser-Ablation Plasma Plumes: A Self-Organization Scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gurlui, S.; Sanduloviciu, M.; Mihesan, C.

2006-01-15

Experimental evidence of the appearance of a proper periodic dynamics in a plasma plume created by pulsed laser ablation is considered as a hint for the presence of a self-organization scenario that explains similar phenomena observed in plasma diodes.

Manycast routing, modulation level and spectrum assignment over elastic optical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Xiao; Zhao, Yang; Chen, Xue; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Min; Zhang, Jie; Ji, Yuefeng; Wang, Huitao; Wang, Taili

2017-07-01

Manycast is a point to multi-point transmission framework that requires a subset of destination nodes successfully reached. It is particularly applicable for dealing with large amounts of data simultaneously in bandwidth-hungry, dynamic and cloud-based applications. As rapid increasing of traffics in these applications, the elastic optical networks (EONs) may be relied on to achieve high throughput manycast. In terms of finer spectrum granularity, the EONs could reach flexible accessing to network spectrum and efficient providing exact spectrum resource to demands. In this paper, we focus on the manycast routing, modulation level and spectrum assignment (MA-RMLSA) problem in EONs. Both EONs planning with static manycast traffic and EONs provisioning with dynamic manycast traffic are investigated. An integer linear programming (ILP) model is formulated to derive MA-RMLSA problem in static manycast scenario. Then corresponding heuristic algorithm called manycast routing, modulation level and spectrum assignment genetic algorithm (MA-RMLSA-GA) is proposed to adapt for both static and dynamic manycast scenarios. The MA-RMLSA-GA optimizes MA-RMLSA problem in destination nodes selection, routing light-tree constitution, modulation level allocation and spectrum resource assignment jointly, to achieve an effective improvement in network performance. Simulation results reveal that MA-RMLSA strategies offered by MA-RMLSA-GA have slightly disparity from the optimal solutions provided by ILP model in static scenario. Moreover, the results demonstrate that MA-RMLSA-GA realizes a highly efficient MA-RMLSA strategy with the lowest blocking probability in dynamic scenario compared with benchmark algorithms.

Luminosity segregation in galaxy clusters as an indication of dynamical evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baier, F. W.; Schmidt, K.-H.

1993-01-01

Theoretical models describing the dynamical evolution of self-gravitating systems predict a spatial mass segregation for more evolved systems, with the more massive objects concentrated toward the center of the configuration. From the observational point of view, however, the existence of mass segregation in galaxy clusters seems to be a matter of controversy. A special problem in this connection is the formation of cD galaxies in the centers of galaxy clusters. The most promising scenarios of their formation are galaxy cannibalism (merger scenario) and growing by cooling flows. It seems to be plausible to consider the swallowing of smaller systems by a dominant galaxy as an important process in the evolution of a cD galaxy. The stage of the evolution of the dominant galaxy should be reflected by the surrounding galaxy population, especially by possible mass segregation effects. Assuming that mass segregation is tantamount to luminosity segregation we analyzed luminosity segregation in roughly 40 cD galaxy clusters. Obviously there are three different groups of clusters: (1) clusters with luminosity segregation, (2) clusters without luminosity segregation, and (3) such objects exhibiting a phenomenon which we call antisegregation in luminosity, i.e. a deficiency of bright galaxies in the central regions of clusters. This result is interpreted in the sense of different degrees of mass segregation and as an indication for different evolution stages of these clusters. The clusters are arranged in the three segregation classes 2, 1, and 0 (S2 = strong mass segregation, S1 = moderate mass segregation, S0 = weak or absent mass segregation). We assume that a galaxy cluster starts its dynamical evolution after virialization without any radial mass segregation. Energy exchange during encounters of cluster members as well as merger processes between cluster galaxies lead to an increasing radial mass segregation in the cluster (S1). If a certain degree of segregation (S2) has been established, an essential number of slow-moving and relative massive cluster members in the center will be cannibalized by the initial brightest cluster galaxy. This process should lead to the growing of the predominate galaxy, which is accompanied by a diminution of the mass segregation (transition to S1 and S0, respectively) in the neighborhood of the central very massive galaxy. An increase of the areal density of brighter galaxies towards the outer cluster regions (antisegregation of luminosity), i.e. an extreme low degree of mass segregation was estimated for a substantial percentage of cD clusters. This result favors the cannibalism scenario for the formation of cD galaxies.

What's in a crowd? Analysis of face-to-face behavioral networks.

PubMed

Isella, Lorenzo; Stehlé, Juliette; Barrat, Alain; Cattuto, Ciro; Pinton, Jean-François; Van den Broeck, Wouter

2011-02-21

The availability of new data sources on human mobility is opening new avenues for investigating the interplay of social networks, human mobility and dynamical processes such as epidemic spreading. Here we analyze data on the time-resolved face-to-face proximity of individuals in large-scale real-world scenarios. We compare two settings with very different properties, a scientific conference and a long-running museum exhibition. We track the behavioral networks of face-to-face proximity, and characterize them from both a static and a dynamic point of view, exposing differences and similarities. We use our data to investigate the dynamics of a susceptible-infected model for epidemic spreading that unfolds on the dynamical networks of human proximity. The spreading patterns are markedly different for the conference and the museum case, and they are strongly impacted by the causal structure of the network data. A deeper study of the spreading paths shows that the mere knowledge of static aggregated networks would lead to erroneous conclusions about the transmission paths on the dynamical networks. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular dynamics for dense matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maruyama, Toshiki; Watanabe, Gentaro; Chiba, Satoshi

2012-08-01

We review a molecular dynamics method for nucleon many-body systems called quantum molecular dynamics (QMD), and our studies using this method. These studies address the structure and the dynamics of nuclear matter relevant to neutron star crusts, supernova cores, and heavy-ion collisions. A key advantage of QMD is that we can study dynamical processes of nucleon many-body systems without any assumptions about the nuclear structure. First, we focus on the inhomogeneous structures of low-density nuclear matter consisting not only of spherical nuclei but also of nuclear "pasta", i.e., rod-like and slab-like nuclei. We show that pasta phases can appear in the ground and equilibrium states of nuclear matter without assuming nuclear shape. Next, we show our simulation of compression of nuclear matter which corresponds to the collapsing stage of supernovae. With the increase in density, a crystalline solid of spherical nuclei changes to a triangular lattice of rods by connecting neighboring nuclei. Finally, we discuss fragment formation in expanding nuclear matter. Our results suggest that a generally accepted scenario based on the liquid-gas phase transition is not plausible at lower temperatures.

Nonlinear finite element analysis of liquid sloshing in complex vehicle motion scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolsen, Brynne; Wang, Liang; Shabana, Ahmed

2017-09-01

The objective of this investigation is to develop a new total Lagrangian continuum-based liquid sloshing model that can be systematically integrated with multibody system (MBS) algorithms in order to allow for studying complex motion scenarios. The new approach allows for accurately capturing the effect of the sloshing forces during curve negotiation, rapid lane change, and accelerating and braking scenarios. In these motion scenarios, the liquid experiences large displacements and significant changes in shape that can be captured effectively using the finite element (FE) absolute nodal coordinate formulation (ANCF). ANCF elements are used in this investigation to describe complex mesh geometries, to capture the change in inertia due to the change in the fluid shape, and to accurately calculate the centrifugal forces, which for flexible bodies do not take the simple form used in rigid body dynamics. A penalty formulation is used to define the contact between the rigid tank walls and the fluid. A fully nonlinear MBS truck model that includes a suspension system and Pacejka's brush tire model is developed. Specified motion trajectories are used to examine the vehicle dynamics in three different scenarios - deceleration during straight-line motion, rapid lane change, and curve negotiation. It is demonstrated that the liquid sloshing changes the contact forces between the tires and the ground - increasing the forces on certain wheels and decreasing the forces on other wheels. In cases of extreme sloshing, this dynamic behavior can negatively impact the vehicle stability by increasing the possibility of wheel lift and vehicle rollover.

Dynamic rupture simulations on a fault network in the Corinth Rift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durand, V.; Hok, S.; Boiselet, A.; Bernard, P.; Scotti, O.

2017-03-01

The Corinth rift (Greece) is made of a complex network of fault segments, typically 10-20 km long separated by stepovers. Assessing the maximum magnitude possible in this region requires accounting for multisegment rupture. Here we apply numerical models of dynamic rupture to quantify the probability of a multisegment rupture in the rift, based on the knowledge of the fault geometry and on the magnitude of the historical and palaeoearthquakes. We restrict our application to dynamic rupture on the most recent and active fault network of the western rift, located on the southern coast. We first define several models, varying the main physical parameters that control the rupture propagation. We keep the regional stress field and stress drop constant, and we test several fault geometries, several positions of the faults in their seismic cycle, several values of the critical distance (and so several fracture energies) and two different hypocentres (thus testing two directivity hypothesis). We obtain different scenarios in terms of the number of ruptured segments and the final magnitude (between M = 5.8 for a single segment rupture to M = 6.4 for a whole network rupture), and find that the main parameter controlling the variability of the scenarios is the fracture energy. We then use a probabilistic approach to quantify the probability of each generated scenario. To do that, we implement a logical tree associating a weight to each model input hypothesis. Combining these weights, we compute the probability of occurrence of each scenario, and show that the multisegment scenarios are very likely (52 per cent), but that the whole network rupture scenario is unlikely (14 per cent).

Estimating the effect of coppice practice on carbon dynamics of oak forests in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Han, S. H.; Makineci, E.; Tolunay, D.; Son, Y.

2016-12-01

Coppice is a forest management practice, maximizing wood production by short-interval harvest. Coppice practice of oak forests in Turkey was abandoned in 2006, however, quantitative assessment to carbon (C) dynamics after the abandonment is still lacking. Accordingly, we simulated the annual changes in C stocks of oak forests in Turkey (7 regions) under the two management scenarios, using a forest C model (FBDC model): 200-year-interval harvest (A scenario) and abandonment of 20-year-interval coppice (B scenario). Growth of biomass was estimated by diameter at breast height (DBH) and allometric functions from previous studies. Survival of root and regeneration from sprout were formulated by a combination of empirical data and assumptions. Dead organic matter C dynamics were estimated by turnover (mortality) rates of biomass and decay rates of dead organic matter. The model estimates were verified by comparing the estimates and measured C stocks. Under the A scenario, the total (biomass, litter, dead wood, and mineral soil) C stock (Mg C ha-1) varied with stand age, ranging from 153.65 to 284.64. The total C stock (Mg C ha-1) started increasing rapidly after abandonment of coppice practice from 134.23 at 1 year to 280.71 at 200 year. The total C stock under the B scenario converged to the level of total C stock under the A scenario. After the abandonment of coppice practice, the C stocks of biomass, litter, and dead wood almost recovered in 30 years, however, the mineral soil C stock required longer time for recovery. This study was supported by Korea Ministry of Environment (2014001310008) and Korea Forest Service (S111314L100110).

Simulating Scenario Floods for Hazard Assessment on the Lower Bicol Floodplain, the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usamah, Muhibuddin Bin; Alkema, Dinand

This paper describes the first results from a study to the behavior of floods in the lower Bicol area, the Philippines. A 1D2D dynamic hydraulic model was applied to simulate a set of scenario floods through the complex topography of the city Naga and surrounding area. The simulation results are integrated into a multi-parameter hazard zonation for the five scenario floods.

Hydro-meteorological risk reduction through land restoration in Rangárvellir, Iceland - an overview of the HydroResilience project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, David C.; Pétursdóttir, Þórunn; Halldórsson, Guðmundur

2017-04-01

Ecosystems that are in equilibrium provide vital resources to local inhabitants, including protection from naturally occurring disasters. Natural vegetation cover has been optimized over many years to retain a maximum of rainfall runoff by increasing the field capacity (FC) of the soil cover, securing water availability during droughts and reducing the flood risk during heavy precipitation events. In this presentation we will present the HydroResilience project, which will assess the effects of ecosystem restoration on the runoff dynamics of rainfall water in Rangárvellir, a restoration area in southern Iceland. The Rangárvellir area presents ideal conditions for such investigations. Dramatic deforestation during the last millennium and year round livestock grazing along with devastating ash depositions during volcanic eruptions and a harsh sub-polar oceanic climate have led to severe degradation in Rangárvellir. Since the beginning of the 20th century diverse restoration measures have been implemented making Rangárvellir an ideal case study to investigate the effects of restoration on hydro-meteorological risk reduction. In this project we will assess and quantify the evolution of water resources in Rangárvellir by assessing the runoff dynamics in the main rivers of Rangárvellir under four main scenarios: i) present conditions, ii) degraded conditions as was the case 100 years ago, iii) under hypothetical fully restored ecosystems and, finally, iv) under conditions of a scenario developed in collaboration with local stakeholder groups to optimize socio-ecological benefits. For this purpose the dynamics of the relevant hydrological processes in the area (incl. river runoff, ground water table, snow cover duration, and soil moisture dynamics) will be reconstructed using hydrological models to run the above mentioned scenarios. The scientific findings and conclusion of this project will generate valuable insights on the effects of land restoration on hydro-meteorological risk reduction. The presentations will outline the main methods used during the project and conclude by providing an outlook on the expected results.

A multi-criteria decision aid methodology to design electric vehicles public charging networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raposo, João; Rodrigues, Ana; Silva, Carlos; Dentinho, Tomaz

2015-05-01

This article presents a new multi-criteria decision aid methodology, dynamic-PROMETHEE, here used to design electric vehicle charging networks. In applying this methodology to a Portuguese city, results suggest that it is effective in designing electric vehicle charging networks, generating time and policy based scenarios, considering offer and demand and the city's urban structure. Dynamic-PROMETHE adds to the already known PROMETHEE's characteristics other useful features, such as decision memory over time, versatility and adaptability. The case study, used here to present the dynamic-PROMETHEE, served as inspiration and base to create this new methodology. It can be used to model different problems and scenarios that may present similar requirement characteristics.

Large-scale Watershed Modeling: NHDPlus Resolution with Achievable Conservation Scenarios in the Western Lake Erie Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, H.; White, M. J.; Arnold, J. G.; Keitzer, S. C.; Johnson, M. V. V.; Atwood, J. D.; Daggupati, P.; Herbert, M. E.; Sowa, S. P.; Ludsin, S.; Robertson, D. M.; Srinivasan, R.; Rewa, C. A.

2016-12-01

By the substantial improvement of computer technology, large-scale watershed modeling has become practically feasible in conducting detailed investigations of hydrologic, sediment, and nutrient processes. In the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), water quality issues caused by anthropogenic activities are not just interesting research subjects but, have implications related to human health and welfare, as well as ecological integrity, resistance, and resilience. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the finest resolution stream network, NHDPlus, were implemented on the WLEB to examine the interactions between achievable conservation scenarios with corresponding additional projected costs. During the calibration/validation processes, both hard (temporal) and soft (non-temporal) data were used to ensure the modeling outputs are coherent with actual watershed behavior. The results showed that widespread adoption of conservation practices intended to provide erosion control could deliver average reductions of sediment and nutrients without additional nutrient management changes. On the other hand, responses of nitrate (NO3) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) dynamics may be different than responses of total nitrogen and total phosphorus dynamics under the same conservation practice. Model results also implied that fewer financial resources are required to achieve conservation goals if the goal is to achieve reductions in targeted watershed outputs (ex. NO3 or DIP) rather than aggregated outputs (ex. total nitrogen or total phosphorus). In addition, it was found that the model's capacity to simulate seasonal effects and responses to changing conservation adoption on a seasonal basis could provide a useful index to help alleviate additional cost through temporal targeting of conservation practices. Scientists, engineers, and stakeholders can take advantage of the work performed in this study as essential information while conducting policy making processes in the future.

Planetesimal and Protoplanet Dynamics in a Turbulent Protoplanetary Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chao-Chin; Mac Low, M.; Menou, K.

2010-01-01

In core accretion scenario of planet formation, kilometer-sized planetesimals are the building blocks toward planetary cores. Their dynamics, however, are strongly influenced by their natal protoplanetary gas disks. It is generally believed that these disks are turbulent, most likely due to magnetorotational instability. The resulting density perturbations in the gas render the movement of the particles a random process. Depending on its strength, this process might cause several interesting consequences in the course of planet formation, specifically the survivability of objects under rapid inward type-I migration and/or collisional destruction. Using the local-shearing-box approximation, we conduct numerical simulations of planetesimals moving in a turbulent, magnetized gas disk, either unstratified or vertically stratified. We produce a fiducial disk model with turbulent accretion of Shakura-Sunyaev alpha about 10-2 and root-mean-square density perturbation of about 10% and statistically characterize the evolution of the orbital properties of the particles moving in the disk. These measurements result in accurate calibration of the random process of particle orbital change, indicating noticeably smaller magnitudes than predicted by global simulations, although the results may depend on the size of the shearing box. We apply these results to revisit the survivability of planetesimals under collisional destruction or protoplanets under type-I migration. Planetesimals are probably secure from collisional destruction, except for kilometer-sized objects situated in the outer regions of a young protoplanetary disk. On the other hand, we confirm earlier studies of local models in that type-I migration probably dominates diffusive migration due to stochastic torques for most planetary cores and terrestrial planets. Discrepancies in the derived magnitude of turbulence between local and global simulations of magnetorotationally unstable disks remains an open issue, with important consequences for planet formation scenarios.

Robustness and cognition in stabilization problem of dynamical systems based on asymptotic methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubovik, S. A.; Kabanov, A. A.

2017-01-01

The problem of synthesis of stabilizing systems based on principles of cognitive (logical-dynamic) control for mobile objects used under uncertain conditions is considered. This direction in control theory is based on the principles of guaranteeing robust synthesis focused on worst-case scenarios of the controlled process. The guaranteeing approach is able to provide functioning of the system with the required quality and reliability only at sufficiently low disturbances and in the absence of large deviations from some regular features of the controlled process. The main tool for the analysis of large deviations and prediction of critical states here is the action functional. After the forecast is built, the choice of anti-crisis control is the supervisory control problem that optimizes the control system in a normal mode and prevents escape of the controlled process in critical states. An essential aspect of the approach presented here is the presence of a two-level (logical-dynamic) control: the input data are used not only for generating of synthesized feedback (local robust synthesis) in advance (off-line), but also to make decisions about the current (on-line) quality of stabilization in the global sense. An example of using the presented approach for the problem of development of the ship tilting prediction system is considered.

Explosion/Blast Dynamics for Constellation Launch Vehicles Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baer, Mel; Crawford, Dave; Hickox, Charles; Kipp, Marlin; Hertel, Gene; Morgan, Hal; Ratzel, Arthur; Cragg, Clinton H.

2009-01-01

An assessment methodology is developed to guide quantitative predictions of adverse physical environments and the subsequent effects on the Ares-1 crew launch vehicle associated with the loss of containment of cryogenic liquid propellants from the upper stage during ascent. Development of the methodology is led by a team at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) with guidance and support from a number of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) personnel. The methodology is based on the current Ares-1 design and feasible accident scenarios. These scenarios address containment failure from debris impact or structural response to pressure or blast loading from an external source. Once containment is breached, the envisioned assessment methodology includes predictions for the sequence of physical processes stemming from cryogenic tank failure. The investigative techniques, analysis paths, and numerical simulations that comprise the proposed methodology are summarized and appropriate simulation software is identified in this report.

Is ΛCDM an effective CCDM cosmology?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lima, J.A.S.; Santos, R.C.; Cunha, J.V., E-mail: limajas@astro.iag.usp.br, E-mail: cliviars@gmail.com, E-mail: jvcunha@ufpa.br

We show that a cosmology driven by gravitationally induced particle production of all non-relativistic species existing in the present Universe mimics exactly the observed flat accelerating ΛCDM cosmology with just one dynamical free parameter. This kind of scenario includes the creation cold dark matter (CCDM) model [1] as a particular case and also provides a natural reduction of the dark sector since the vacuum component is not needed to accelerate the Universe. The new cosmic scenario is equivalent to ΛCDM both at the background and perturbative levels and the associated creation process is also in agreement with the universality ofmore » the gravitational interaction and equivalence principle. Implicitly, it also suggests that the present day astronomical observations cannot be considered the ultimate proof of cosmic vacuum effects in the evolved Universe because ΛCDM may be only an effective cosmology.« less

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: A first step towards ecological modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-01-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

Microscopic information processing and communication in crowd dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henein, Colin Marc; White, Tony

2010-11-01

Due, perhaps, to the historical division of crowd dynamics research into psychological and engineering approaches, microscopic crowd models have tended toward modelling simple interchangeable particles with an emphasis on the simulation of physical factors. Despite the fact that people have complex (non-panic) behaviours in crowd disasters, important human factors in crowd dynamics such as information discovery and processing, changing goals and communication have not yet been well integrated at the microscopic level. We use our Microscopic Human Factors methodology to fuse a microscopic simulation of these human factors with a popular microscopic crowd model. By tightly integrating human factors with the existing model we can study the effects on the physical domain (movement, force and crowd safety) when human behaviour (information processing and communication) is introduced. In a large-room egress scenario with ample exits, information discovery and processing yields a crowd of non-interchangeable individuals who, despite close proximity, have different goals due to their different beliefs. This crowd heterogeneity leads to complex inter-particle interactions such as jamming transitions in open space; at high crowd energies, we found a freezing by heating effect (reminiscent of the disaster at Central Lenin Stadium in 1982) in which a barrier formation of naïve individuals trying to reach blocked exits prevented knowledgeable ones from exiting. Communication, when introduced, reduced this barrier formation, increasing both exit rates and crowd safety.

A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

2015-06-01

In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

Laboratory investigations of earthquake dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Kaiwen

In this thesis this will be attempted through controlled laboratory experiments that are designed to mimic natural earthquake scenarios. The earthquake dynamic rupturing process itself is a complicated phenomenon, involving dynamic friction, wave propagation, and heat production. Because controlled experiments can produce results without assumptions needed in theoretical and numerical analysis, the experimental method is thus advantageous over theoretical and numerical methods. Our laboratory fault is composed of carefully cut photoelastic polymer plates (Homahte-100, Polycarbonate) held together by uniaxial compression. As a unique unit of the experimental design, a controlled exploding wire technique provides the triggering mechanism of laboratory earthquakes. Three important components of real earthquakes (i.e., pre-existing fault, tectonic loading, and triggering mechanism) correspond to and are simulated by frictional contact, uniaxial compression, and the exploding wire technique. Dynamic rupturing processes are visualized using the photoelastic method and are recorded via a high-speed camera. Our experimental methodology, which is full-field, in situ, and non-intrusive, has better control and diagnostic capacity compared to other existing experimental methods. Using this experimental approach, we have investigated several problems: dynamics of earthquake faulting occurring along homogeneous faults separating identical materials, earthquake faulting along inhomogeneous faults separating materials with different wave speeds, and earthquake faulting along faults with a finite low wave speed fault core. We have observed supershear ruptures, subRayleigh to supershear rupture transition, crack-like to pulse-like rupture transition, self-healing (Heaton) pulse, and rupture directionality.

A Dynamic Flood Inundation Model Framework to Assess Coastal Flood Risk in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S. C.; Irish, J. L.

2015-12-01

Coastal regions around the world are susceptible to a variety of natural disasters causing extreme inundation. It is anticipated that the vulnerability of coastal cities will increase due to the effects of climate change, and in particular sea level rise (SLR). A novel framework was developed to generate a suite of physics-based storm surge models that include projections of coastal floodplain dynamics under climate change scenarios: shoreline erosion/accretion, dune morphology, salt marsh migration, and population dynamics. First, the storm surge inundation model was extensively validated for present day conditions with respect to astronomic tides and hindcasts of Hurricane Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012). The model was then modified to characterize the future outlook of the landscape for four climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (B1, B2, A1B, and A2), and each climate change scenario was linked to a sea level rise of 0.2 m, 0.5 m, 1.2 m, and 2.0 m. The adapted model was then used to simulate hurricane storm surge conditions for each climate scenario using a variety of tropical cyclones as the forcing mechanism. The collection of results shows the intensification of inundation area and the vulnerability of the coast to potential future climate conditions. The methodology developed herein to assess coastal flooding under climate change can be performed across any coastal region worldwide, and results provide awareness of regions vulnerable to extreme flooding in the future. Note: The main theme behind this work is to appear in a future Earth's Future publication. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Parris, A., et al. (2012), Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate AssessmentRep., 37 pp. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, M. V. Bilskie, and S. C. Medeiros (2014), On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios, Natural Hazards, 1599-1617. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, M. V. Bilskie, K. Alizad, and D. Wang (2015), The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low gradient coastal landscapes: a review, Earth's Future, 3.

Coupling of a distributed stakeholder-built system dynamics socio-economic model with SAHYSMOD for sustainable soil salinity management. Part 2: Model coupling and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inam, Azhar; Adamowski, Jan; Prasher, Shiv; Halbe, Johannes; Malard, Julien; Albano, Raffaele

2017-08-01

Many simulation models focus on simulating a single physical process and do not constitute balanced representations of the physical, social and economic components of a system. The present study addresses this challenge by integrating a physical (P) model (SAHYSMOD) with a group (stakeholder) built system dynamics model (GBSDM) through a component modeling approach based on widely applied tools such as MS Excel, Python and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The coupled model (P-GBSDM) was applied to test soil salinity management scenarios (proposed by stakeholders) for the Haveli region of the Rechna Doab Basin in Pakistan. Scenarios such as water banking, vertical drainage, canal lining, and irrigation water reallocation were simulated with the integrated model. Spatiotemporal maps and economic and environmental trade-off criteria were used to examine the effectiveness of the selected management scenarios. After 20 years of simulation, canal lining reduced soil salinity by 22% but caused an initial reduction of 18% in farm income, which requires an initial investment from the government. The government-sponsored Salinity Control and Reclamation Project (SCARP) is a short-term policy that resulted in a 37% increase in water availability with a 12% increase in farmer income. However, it showed detrimental effects on soil salinity in the long term, with a 21% increase in soil salinity due to secondary salinization. The new P-GBSDM was shown to be an effective platform for engaging stakeholders and simulating their proposed management policies while taking into account socioeconomic considerations. This was not possible using the physically based SAHYSMOD model alone.

Einstein@Home Discovery of a PALFA Millisecond Pulsar in an Eccentric Binary Orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knispel, B.; Lyne, A. G.; Stappers, B. W.; Freire, P. C. C.; Lazarus, P.; Allen, B.; Aulbert, C.; Bock, O.; Bogdanov, S.; Brazier, A.; Camilo, F.; Cardoso, F.; Chatterjee, S.; Cordes, J. M.; Crawford, F.; Deneva, J. S.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Fehrmann, H.; Ferdman, R.; Hessels, J. W. T.; Jenet, F. A.; Karako-Argaman, C.; Kaspi, V. M.; van Leeuwen, J.; Lorimer, D. R.; Lynch, R.; Machenschalk, B.; Madsen, E.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Patel, C.; Ransom, S. M.; Scholz, P.; Siemens, X.; Spitler, L. G.; Stairs, I. H.; Stovall, K.; Swiggum, J. K.; Venkataraman, A.; Wharton, R. S.; Zhu, W. W.

2015-06-01

We report the discovery of the millisecond pulsar (MSP) PSR J1950+2414 (P = 4.3 ms) in a binary system with an eccentric (e = 0.08) 22 day orbit in Pulsar Arecibo L-band Feed Array survey observations with the Arecibo telescope. Its companion star has a median mass of 0.3 M⊙ and is most likely a white dwarf (WD). Fully recycled MSPs like this one are thought to be old neutron stars spun-up by mass transfer from a companion star. This process should circularize the orbit, as is observed for the vast majority of binary MSPs, which predominantly have orbital eccentricities e < 0.001. However, four recently discovered binary MSPs have orbits with 0. 027 < e < 0.44; PSR J1950+2414 is the fifth such system to be discovered. The upper limits for its intrinsic spin period derivative and inferred surface magnetic field strength are comparable to those of the general MSP population. The large eccentricities are incompatible with the predictions of the standard recycling scenario: something unusual happened during their evolution. Proposed scenarios are (a) initial evolution of the pulsar in a triple system which became dynamically unstable, (b) origin in an exchange encounter in an environment with high stellar density, (c) rotationally delayed accretion-induced collapse of a super-Chandrasekhar WD, and (d) dynamical interaction of the binary with a circumbinary disk. We compare the properties of all five known eccentric MSPs with the predictions of these formation channels. Future measurements of the masses and proper motion might allow us to firmly exclude some of the proposed formation scenarios.

Slow Debye-type peak observed in the dielectric response of polyalcohols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergman, Rikard; Jansson, Helén; Swenson, Jan

2010-01-01

Dielectric relaxation spectroscopy of glass forming liquids normally exhibits a relaxation scenario that seems to be surprisingly general. However, the relaxation dynamics is more complicated for hydrogen bonded liquids. For instance, the dielectric response of monoalcohols is dominated by a mysterious Debye-like process at lower frequencies than the structural α-relaxation that is normally dominating the spectra of glass formers. For polyalcohols this process has been thought to be absent or possibly obscured by a strong contribution from conductivity and polarization effects at low frequencies. We here show that the Debye-like process, although much less prominent, is also present in the response of polyalcohols. It can be observed in the derivative of the real part of the susceptibility or directly in the imaginary part if the conductivity contribution is reduced by covering the upper electrode with a thin Teflon layer. We report on results from broadband dielectric spectroscopy studies of several polyalcohols: glycerol, xylitol, and sorbitol. The findings are discussed in relation to other experimental observations of ultraslow (i.e., slower than the viscosity related α-relaxation) dynamics in glass formers.

Uncovering molecular processes in crystal nucleation and growth by using molecular simulation.

PubMed

Anwar, Jamshed; Zahn, Dirk

2011-02-25

Exploring nucleation processes by molecular simulation provides a mechanistic understanding at the atomic level and also enables kinetic and thermodynamic quantities to be estimated. However, whilst the potential for modeling crystal nucleation and growth processes is immense, there are specific technical challenges to modeling. In general, rare events, such as nucleation cannot be simulated using a direct "brute force" molecular dynamics approach. The limited time and length scales that are accessible by conventional molecular dynamics simulations have inspired a number of advances to tackle problems that were considered outside the scope of molecular simulation. While general insights and features could be explored from efficient generic models, new methods paved the way to realistic crystal nucleation scenarios. The association of single ions in solvent environments, the mechanisms of motif formation, ripening reactions, and the self-organization of nanocrystals can now be investigated at the molecular level. The analysis of interactions with growth-controlling additives gives a new understanding of functionalized nanocrystals and the precipitation of composite materials. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Scaling view by the Virtual Nature Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klenov, Valeriy

2010-05-01

The Virtual Nature System is irreplaceable for research and evaluation for governing processes on the Earth. Processes on the Earth depends on external exogenous and endogenous influences, and on own dynamics of the Actual Nature Systems (ANS). To select part of the actors is impossible without take in account factor of the Time, factor for information safety during the Time. The stochastic nature of external influences and stochastic pattern for dynamics of Nature systems complicates evaluation of 2D threat of disasters. These are multi-layer, multi-scale, and multi-driven structures of surface processes. Their spatial-temporal overlapping of them generates relatively stable structure of river basins and of river net. Dynamics of processes in river basins results in remove of the former sediments and levels, and in displace of erosion/sedimentation pattern, in destroy and dissipation for a memory the ANS. This complex process results in the Information Loss Law (ILL) in the ANS, which gradually cut off own Past. This view on the GeoDynamics appeared after long time field measurements thousands of terrace levels, hundreds of terrace ranks, and terrace complexes in river basins (Klenov, 1986, 2004). Action of the ILL leads to blanks in natural records, which are non-linearly increasing to the Past, and in appearance of false trends in the records. This temporal barrier prevents evaluation of the history. The way to view spatial-temporal dynamics of the ANS is creation for the portrait Virtual Nature Systems, as acting doubles of the actual nature systems (ANS). Exogenous and endogenous influences are governing drivers of the ANS and of corresponding VNS. The VNS is necessary for research of spatial-temporal GeoDynamics. Unfortunately, the ILL is working not only for the Past, but also restrict ‘view' the Future. It is because of future drivers are yet unknown with necessary exactness, and due high sensitivity of nature systems to external pressure. However, a time for validation of the VNS is short to receive non distorted records, but it provides satisfactory validation of the VNS, and provides satisfactory evaluation for stochastic patterns of disasters (floods and debris flows). The VNS gives a chance to divide exogenous (climatic) from tectonic influences. This property is invaluable for monitoring and scenarios of land use, engineering, and other human activity, under simultaneous climatic and tectonic impacts, for evaluation of threat's areas and tracks. The continually measured stochastic spatial-temporal interception of external impacts (storms, precipitations, of tectonic distorts, earthquakes, and others), does not make problems for the VNS (acting by observed records), and by imply the Moving Digital Earth (MDE) technology (by immediate reforming of external drivers to natural processes). It is a goal for the VNS and MDE, which becomes possible by remote sensing, by powerful computers, and by fast communications. The VNS/MDE presents corresponding mapping for processes in any area. Instead of problems of scaling the current task is to provide necessary spatial resolution of the basic multi-layer Matrix of variables and parameters. Problems are in procedures for filling up of large multi-layer M, quick computing and mapping of large areas. The scaling depends on a task. The acceptable spatial resolution of the Matrix must perceive in view to hazardous processes with acceptable in resolution. During the VNS practice were evaluated any imagined combines of exogenous-endogenous impacts (from linear to circle distort, blocks, volcanoes, earthquakes, and others, in a variety of scales from local to sub-continental. The single principle for choose a scale is that spatial resolution (cell size) should not ignore important details of the Earth. For the Rhine Basin was computed influence of small smooth tectonic distorts in a large area. It was resulted in essential change for pattern of erosion/sedimentation on a land, and in Coastal Zone. For small basis were computed scenarios for complex tectonic distorts, earthquakes, resulted in decreasing of soil/rock resistance and in sharp increasing of catastrophic debris flows and flash floods. Any scenarios are possible for the verified/validated VNS. The VNS is valuable for any area, and the MDE has a skill for mapping the soon Future, and for mapping of threats' areas and tracks.

Modeling the Car Crash Crisis Management System Using HiLA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hölzl, Matthias; Knapp, Alexander; Zhang, Gefei

An aspect-oriented modeling approach to the Car Crash Crisis Management System (CCCMS) using the High-Level Aspect (HiLA) language is described. HiLA is a language for expressing aspects for UML static structures and UML state machines. In particular, HiLA supports both a static graph transformational and a dynamic approach of applying aspects. Furthermore, it facilitates methodologically turning use case descriptions into state machines: for each main success scenario, a base state machine is developed; all extensions to this main success scenario are covered by aspects. Overall, the static structure of the CCCMS is modeled in 43 classes, the main success scenarios in 13 base machines, the use case extensions in 47 static and 31 dynamic aspects, most of which are instantiations of simple aspect templates.

The return of the merging galaxy subclusters of El Gordo?

DOE PAGES

Ng, Karen Y.; Dawson, William A.; Wittman, D.; ...

2015-08-25

Merging galaxy clusters with radio relics provide rare insights to the merger dynamics as the relics are created by the violent merger process. We demonstrate one of the first uses of the properties of the radio relic to reduce the uncertainties of the dynamical variables and determine the three-dimensional (3D) configuration of a cluster merger, ACT-CL J0102-4915, nicknamed El Gordo. From the double radio relic observation and the X-ray observation of a comet-like gas morphology induced by motion of the cool core, it is widely believed that El Gordo is observed shortly after the first core passage of the subclusters. Here, we employ a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the 3D configuration and dynamics of El Gordo. Using the polarization fraction of the radio relic, we constrain the estimate of the angle between the plane of the sky and the merger axis to be α=21°±more » $$9\\atop{11}$$. We find the relative 3D merger speed of El Gordo to be 2400 ± $$400\\atop{200}$$ km s -1 at pericentre. The two possible estimates of the time since pericentre (TSP) are 0.46 ± $$0.09\\atop{0.16}$$ and 0.91± $$0.22\\atop{0.39}$$ Gyr for the outgoing and returning scenario, respectively. We put our estimates of the TSP into context by showing that if the time-averaged shock velocity is approximately equal to or smaller than the pericentre velocity of the corresponding subcluster in the centre-of-mass frame, the two subclusters are more likely to be moving towards, rather than away, from each other, post apocentre. Finally, we compare and contrast the merger scenario of El Gordo with that of the Bullet Cluster, and show that this late-stage merging scenario explains why the south-east (SE) dark matter lensing peak of El Gordo is closer to the merger centre than the SE cool core.« less

The return of the merging galaxy subclusters of El Gordo?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ng, Karen Y.; Dawson, William A.; Wittman, D.

Merging galaxy clusters with radio relics provide rare insights to the merger dynamics as the relics are created by the violent merger process. We demonstrate one of the first uses of the properties of the radio relic to reduce the uncertainties of the dynamical variables and determine the three-dimensional (3D) configuration of a cluster merger, ACT-CL J0102-4915, nicknamed El Gordo. From the double radio relic observation and the X-ray observation of a comet-like gas morphology induced by motion of the cool core, it is widely believed that El Gordo is observed shortly after the first core passage of the subclusters. Here, we employ a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the 3D configuration and dynamics of El Gordo. Using the polarization fraction of the radio relic, we constrain the estimate of the angle between the plane of the sky and the merger axis to be α=21°±more » $$9\\atop{11}$$. We find the relative 3D merger speed of El Gordo to be 2400 ± $$400\\atop{200}$$ km s -1 at pericentre. The two possible estimates of the time since pericentre (TSP) are 0.46 ± $$0.09\\atop{0.16}$$ and 0.91± $$0.22\\atop{0.39}$$ Gyr for the outgoing and returning scenario, respectively. We put our estimates of the TSP into context by showing that if the time-averaged shock velocity is approximately equal to or smaller than the pericentre velocity of the corresponding subcluster in the centre-of-mass frame, the two subclusters are more likely to be moving towards, rather than away, from each other, post apocentre. Finally, we compare and contrast the merger scenario of El Gordo with that of the Bullet Cluster, and show that this late-stage merging scenario explains why the south-east (SE) dark matter lensing peak of El Gordo is closer to the merger centre than the SE cool core.« less

Numerical 3D modelling of oil dispersion in the sea due to different accident scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guandalini, Roberto; Agate, Giordano; Moia, Fabio

2017-04-01

The purpose of the study has been the development of a methodology, based on a numerical 3D approach, for the analysis of oil dispersion in the sea, in order to simulate with a high level of accuracy the dynamic behavior of the oil plume and its displacement in the environment. As a matter of fact, the numerical simulation is the only approach currently able to analyse in detail possible accident scenarios, even with an high degree of complexity, of different type and intensity, allowing to follow their evolution both in time and space, and to evaluate the effectiveness of suggested prevention or recovery actions. The software for these calculations is therefore an essential tool in order to simulate the impact effects in the short, medium and long period, able to account for the complexity of the sea system involved in the dispersion process and its dependency on the meteorological, marine and morphological local conditions. This software, generally based on fluid dynamic 3D simulators and modellers, is therefore extremely specialized and requires expertise for an appropriate usage, but at the same time it allows detailed scenario analyses and design verifications. It takes into account different parameters as the sea current field and its turbulence, the wind acting on the sea surface, the salinity and temperature gradients, the local coastal morphology, the seabed bathymetry and the tide. The applied methodology is based on the Integrated Fluid Dynamic Simulation System HyperSuite developed by RSE. This simulation system includes the consideration of all the parameters previously listed, in the frame of a 3D Eulerian finite element fluid dynamic model, which accuracy is guaranteed by a very detailed spatial mesh and by an automatically optimized time step management. In order to assess the methodology features, an area of more than 2500 km2 and depth of 200 m located in the middle Adriatic Sea has been modelled. The information required for the simulation in different environmental conditions, have been collected from RSE proprietary and public databases directly connected to the model. Finally, the possible pollution source has been chosen in correspondence with the offshore drilling wells for the exploitation of the "Ombrina Mare" oil field, located at a distance of 6 km from the coast, and the project includes a FPSO unit. A number of different scenarios have been simulated using the 3D model created by HyperSuite, in different environmental conditions and considering emission events of low intensity and long period or of high intensity and short period, located near the sea surface or near the sea bottom. For each scenario, a preliminary initialization in the fluid dynamic unperturbed conditions at the starting date has been carried out, from which the emission period followed by a properly duration of diffusion period of the pollutant has been simulated. The results allowed to evaluate the relevance of the effects due to the environmental parameters as the wind, sea current and tide, putting in evidence the capability of the methodology to support the safety requirements in the frame of off shore oil exploitation provided that a dynamic characterization of the environment parameters is accounted for a sufficient detail.

Users' guide to system dynamics model describing Coho salmon survival in Olema Creek, Point Reyes National Seashore, Marin County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodward, Andrea; Torregrosa, Alicia; Madej, Mary Ann; Reichmuth, Michael; Fong, Darren

2014-01-01

The system dynamics model described in this report is the result of a collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and National Park Service (NPS) San Francisco Bay Area Network (SFAN) staff, whose goal was to develop a methodology to integrate inventory and monitoring data to better understand ecosystem dynamics and trends using salmon in Olema Creek, Marin County, California, as an example case. The SFAN began monitoring multiple life stages of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in Olema Creek during 2003 (Carlisle and others, 2013), building on previous monitoring of spawning fish and redds. They initiated water-quality and habitat monitoring, and had access to flow and weather data from other sources. This system dynamics model of the freshwater portion of the coho salmon life cycle in Olema Creek integrated 8 years of existing monitoring data, literature values, and expert opinion to investigate potential factors limiting survival and production, identify data gaps, and improve monitoring and restoration prescriptions. A system dynamics model is particularly effective when (1) data are insufficient in time series length and/or measured parameters for a statistical or mechanistic model, and (2) the model must be easily accessible by users who are not modelers. These characteristics helped us meet the following overarching goals for this model: Summarize and synthesize NPS monitoring data with data and information from other sources to describe factors and processes affecting freshwater survival of coho salmon in Olema Creek. Provide a model that can be easily manipulated to experiment with alternative values of model parameters and novel scenarios of environmental drivers. Although the model describes the ecological dynamics of Olema Creek, these dynamics are structurally similar to numerous other coastal streams along the California coast that also contain anadromous fish populations. The model developed for Olema can be used, at least as a starting point, for other watersheds. This report describes each of the model elements with sufficient detail to guide the primary target audience, the NPS resource specialist, to run the model, interpret the results, change the input data to explore hypotheses, and ultimately modify and improve the model. Running the model and interpreting the results does not require modeling expertise on the part of the user. Additional companion publications will highlight other aspects of the model, such as its development, the rationale behind the methodological approach, scenario testing, and discussions of its use. System dynamics models consist of three basic elements: stocks, flows, and converters. Stocks are measurable quantities that can change over time, such as animal populations. Flows are any processes or conditions that change the quantity in a stock over time (Ford, 1999), are expressed in the model as a rate of change, and are diagrammed as arrows to or from stocks. Converters are processes or conditions that change the rate of flows. A converter is connected to a flow with an arrow indicating that it alters the rate of change. Anything that influences the rate of change (such as different environmental conditions, other external factors, or feedbacks from other stocks or flows) is modeled as a converter. For example, the number of fish in a population is appropriately modeled as a stock. Mortality is modeled as a flow because it is a rate of change over time used to determine the number of fish in the population. The density-dependent effect on mortality is modeled as a converter because it influences the rate of morality. Together, the flow and converter change the number, or stock, of juvenile coho. The instructions embedded in the stocks, flows, converters, and the sequence in which they are linked are processed by the simulation software with each completed sequence composing a model run. At each modeled time step within the model run, the stock counts will go up, down, or stay the same based on the modeled flows and the influence of converters on those flows. The model includes a user-friendly interface to change model parameters, which allows park staff and others to conduct sensitivity analyses, incorporate future knowledge, and implement scenarios for various future conditions. The model structure incorporates place holders for relationships that we hypothesize are significant but data are currently lacking. Future climate scenarios project stream temperatures higher than any that have ever been recorded at Olema Creek. Exploring climate change impacts on coho survival is a high priority for park staff, therefore the model provides the user with the option to experiment with hypothesized effects and to incorporate effects based on future observations.

Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review.

PubMed

Wang, Zhen; Andrews, Michael A; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Wang, Lin; Bauch, Chris T

2015-12-01

It is increasingly recognized that a key component of successful infection control efforts is understanding the complex, two-way interaction between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics. Human behavior such as contact precautions and social distancing clearly influence disease prevalence, but disease prevalence can in turn alter human behavior, forming a coupled, nonlinear system. Moreover, in many cases, the spatial structure of the population cannot be ignored, such that social and behavioral processes and/or transmission of infection must be represented with complex networks. Research on studying coupled disease-behavior dynamics in complex networks in particular is growing rapidly, and frequently makes use of analysis methods and concepts from statistical physics. Here, we review some of the growing literature in this area. We contrast network-based approaches to homogeneous-mixing approaches, point out how their predictions differ, and describe the rich and often surprising behavior of disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks, and compare them to processes in statistical physics. We discuss how these models can capture the dynamics that characterize many real-world scenarios, thereby suggesting ways that policy makers can better design effective prevention strategies. We also describe the growing sources of digital data that are facilitating research in this area. Finally, we suggest pitfalls which might be faced by researchers in the field, and we suggest several ways in which the field could move forward in the coming years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of one-state downhill protein folding.

PubMed

Li, Peng; Oliva, Fabiana Y; Naganathan, Athi N; Muñoz, Victor

2009-01-06

The small helical protein BBL has been shown to fold and unfold in the absence of a free energy barrier according to a battery of quantitative criteria in equilibrium experiments, including probe-dependent equilibrium unfolding, complex coupling between denaturing agents, characteristic DSC thermogram, gradual melting of secondary structure, and heterogeneous atom-by-atom unfolding behaviors spanning the entire unfolding process. Here, we present the results of nanosecond T-jump experiments probing backbone structure by IR and end-to-end distance by FRET. The folding dynamics observed with these two probes are both exponential with common relaxation times but have large differences in amplitude following their probe-dependent equilibrium unfolding. The quantitative analysis of amplitude and relaxation time data for both probes shows that BBL folding dynamics are fully consistent with the one-state folding scenario and incompatible with alternative models involving one or several barrier crossing events. At 333 K, the relaxation time for BBL is 1.3 micros, in agreement with previous folding speed limit estimates. However, late folding events at room temperature are an order of magnitude slower (20 micros), indicating a relatively rough underlying energy landscape. Our results in BBL expose the dynamic features of one-state folding and chart the intrinsic time-scales for conformational motions along the folding process. Interestingly, the simple self-averaging folding dynamics of BBL are the exact dynamic properties required in molecular rheostats, thus supporting a biological role for one-state folding.

The Effects of Stellar Dynamics on the Evolution of Young, Dense Stellar Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belkus, H.; van Bever, J.; Vanbeveren, D.

In this paper, we report on first results of a project in Brussels in which we study the effects of stellar dynamics on the evolution of young dense stellar systems using 3 decades of expertise in massive-star evolution and our population (number and spectral) synthesis code. We highlight an unconventionally formed object scenario (UFO-scenario) for Wolf Rayet binaries and study the effects of a luminous blue variable-type instability wind mass-loss formalism on the formation of intermediate-mass black holes.

Ultrashort optical waveguide excitations in uniaxial silica fibers: elastic collision scenarios.

PubMed

Kuetche, Victor K; Youssoufa, Saliou; Kofane, Timoleon C

2014-12-01

In this work, we investigate the dynamics of an uniaxial silica fiber under the viewpoint of propagation of ultimately ultrashort optical waveguide channels. As a result, we unveil the existence of three typical kinds of ultrabroadband excitations whose profiles strongly depend upon their angular momenta. Looking forward to surveying their scattering features, we unearth some underlying head-on scenarios of elastic collisions. Accordingly, we address some useful and straightforward applications in nonlinear optics through secured data transmission systems, as well as laser physics and soliton theory with optical soliton dynamics.

Future changes in large-scale transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abalos, M.; Randel, W. J.; Kinnison, D. E.; Garcia, R. R.

2017-12-01

Future changes in large-scale transport are investigated in long-term (1955-2099) simulations of the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) under an RCP6.0 climate change scenario. We examine artificial passive tracers in order to isolate transport changes from future changes in emissions and chemical processes. The model suggests enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange in both directions (STE), with decreasing tropospheric and increasing stratospheric tracer concentrations in the troposphere. Changes in the different transport processes are evaluated using the Transformed Eulerian Mean continuity equation, including parameterized convective transport. Dynamical changes associated with the rise of the tropopause height are shown to play a crucial role on future transport trends.

Dynamical history of a binary cluster: Abell 3653

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caglar, Turgay; Hudaverdi, Murat

2017-12-01

We study the dynamical structure of a bimodal galaxy cluster Abell 3653 at z = 0.1089 using optical and X-ray data. Observations include archival data from the Anglo-Australian Telescope, X-ray observatories XMM-Newton and Chandra. We draw a global picture for A3653 using galaxy density, X-ray luminosity and temperature maps. The galaxy distribution has a regular morphological shape at the 3 Mpc size. The galaxy density map shows an elongation in the east-west direction, which perfectly aligns with the extended diffuse X-ray emission. We detect two dominant groups around the two brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs). BCG1 (z = 0.1099) can be associated with the main cluster A3653E, and a foreground subcluster A3653W is concentrated at BCG2 (z = 0.1075). Both X-ray peaks are dislocated from the BCGs by ∼35 kpc, which suggest an ongoing merger process. We measure the subcluster gas temperatures of 4.67 and 3.66 keV, respectively. Two-body dynamical analysis shows that A3653E and A3653W are very likely gravitationally bound (93.5 per cent probability). The highly favoured scenario suggests that the two subclusters have a mass ratio of 1.4 and are colliding close to the plane of sky (α = 17.61°) at 2400 km s-1, and will undergo core passage in 380 Myr. The temperature map also significantly shows a shock-heated gas (6.16 keV) between the subclusters, which confirms the supersonic infalling scenario.

From Strong to Fragile Glass Formers: Secondary Relaxation in Polyalcohols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Döß, A.; Paluch, M.; Sillescu, H.; Hinze, G.

2002-03-01

We have studied details of the molecular origin of slow secondary relaxation near Tg in a series of neat polyalcohols by means of dielectric spectroscopy and 2H NMR. From glycerol to threitol, xylitol, and sorbitol the appearance of the secondary relaxation changes gradually from a wing-type scenario to a pronounced β peak. It is found that in sorbitol the dynamics of the whole molecule contributes equally to the β process, while in glycerol the hydrogen bond forming OH groups remain rather rigid compared to the hydrogens bonded to the carbon skeleton.

Erosion waves: Transverse instabilities and fingering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malloggi, F.; Lanuza, J.; Andreotti, B.; Clément, E.

2006-09-01

Two laboratory scale experiments of dry and underwater avalanches of non-cohesive granular materials are investigated. We trigger solitary waves and study the conditions under which the front is transversally stable. We show the existence of a linear instability followed by a coarsening dynamics and finally the onset of a fingering pattern. Due to the different operating conditions, both experiments strongly differ by the spatial and time scales involved. Nevertheless, the quantitative agreement between the stability diagram, the wavelengths selected and the avalanche morphology suggest a common scenario for an erosion/deposition process.

Coevolutionary dynamics in large, but finite populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Traulsen, Arne; Claussen, Jens Christian; Hauert, Christoph

2006-07-01

Coevolving and competing species or game-theoretic strategies exhibit rich and complex dynamics for which a general theoretical framework based on finite populations is still lacking. Recently, an explicit mean-field description in the form of a Fokker-Planck equation was derived for frequency-dependent selection with two strategies in finite populations based on microscopic processes [A. Traulsen, J. C. Claussen, and C. Hauert, Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 238701 (2005)]. Here we generalize this approach in a twofold way: First, we extend the framework to an arbitrary number of strategies and second, we allow for mutations in the evolutionary process. The deterministic limit of infinite population size of the frequency-dependent Moran process yields the adjusted replicator-mutator equation, which describes the combined effect of selection and mutation. For finite populations, we provide an extension taking random drift into account. In the limit of neutral selection, i.e., whenever the process is determined by random drift and mutations, the stationary strategy distribution is derived. This distribution forms the background for the coevolutionary process. In particular, a critical mutation rate uc is obtained separating two scenarios: above uc the population predominantly consists of a mixture of strategies whereas below uc the population tends to be in homogeneous states. For one of the fundamental problems in evolutionary biology, the evolution of cooperation under Darwinian selection, we demonstrate that the analytical framework provides excellent approximations to individual based simulations even for rather small population sizes. This approach complements simulation results and provides a deeper, systematic understanding of coevolutionary dynamics.

Dynamical system analysis for DBI dark energy interacting with dark matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahata, Nilanjana; Chakraborty, Subenoy

2015-01-01

A dynamical system analysis related to Dirac-Born-Infeld (DBI) cosmological model has been investigated in this present work. For spatially flat FRW spacetime, the Einstein field equation for DBI scenario has been used to study the dynamics of DBI dark energy interacting with dark matter. The DBI dark energy model is considered as a scalar field with a nonstandard kinetic energy term. An interaction between the DBI dark energy and dark matter is considered through a phenomenological interaction between DBI scalar field and the dark matter fluid. The field equations are reduced to an autonomous dynamical system by a suitable redefinition of the basic variables. The potential of the DBI scalar field is assumed to be exponential. Finally, critical points are determined, their nature have been analyzed and corresponding cosmological scenario has been discussed.

Global water dynamics: issues for the 21st century.

PubMed

Simonovic, Slobodan P

2002-01-01

The WorldWater system dynamics model has been developed for modeling the global world water balance and capturing the dynamic character of the main variables affecting water availability and use in the future. Despite not being a novel approach, system dynamics offers a new way of addressing complex systems. WorldWater simulations are clearly demonstrating the strong feedback relation between water availability and different aspects of world development. Results of numerous simulations are contradictory to the assumption made by many global modelers that water is not an issue on the global scale. Two major observations can be made from early simulations: (a) the use of clean water for dilution and transport of wastewater, if not dealt with in other ways, imposes a major stress on the global world water balance; and (b) water use by different sectors is demonstrating quite different dynamics than predicted by classical forecasting tools and other water-models. Inherent linkages between water quantity and quality sectors with food, industry, persistent pollution, technology, and non-renewable resources sectors of the model create shoot and collapse behavior in water use dynamics. This paper discusses a number of different water-related scenarios and their implications on the global water balance. In particular, two extreme scenarios (business as usual - named "Chaos", and unlimited desalination - named "Ocean") are presented in the paper. Based on the conclusions derived from these two extreme cases a set of more moderate and realistic scenarios (named "Conservation") is proposed and their consequences on the global water balance are evaluated.

An agent-based modelling framework to explore the role of social media and stubborn people on evacuation rates during flooding events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.; Sun, Z.

2017-12-01

Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a non-linear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

Fractional Dynamics of Network Growth Constrained by Aging Node Interactions

PubMed Central

Safdari, Hadiseh; Zare Kamali, Milad; Shirazi, Amirhossein; Khalighi, Moein; Jafari, Gholamreza; Ausloos, Marcel

2016-01-01

In many social complex systems, in which agents are linked by non-linear interactions, the history of events strongly influences the whole network dynamics. However, a class of “commonly accepted beliefs” seems rarely studied. In this paper, we examine how the growth process of a (social) network is influenced by past circumstances. In order to tackle this cause, we simply modify the well known preferential attachment mechanism by imposing a time dependent kernel function in the network evolution equation. This approach leads to a fractional order Barabási-Albert (BA) differential equation, generalizing the BA model. Our results show that, with passing time, an aging process is observed for the network dynamics. The aging process leads to a decay for the node degree values, thereby creating an opposing process to the preferential attachment mechanism. On one hand, based on the preferential attachment mechanism, nodes with a high degree are more likely to absorb links; but, on the other hand, a node’s age has a reduced chance for new connections. This competitive scenario allows an increased chance for younger members to become a hub. Simulations of such a network growth with aging constraint confirm the results found from solving the fractional BA equation. We also report, as an exemplary application, an investigation of the collaboration network between Hollywood movie actors. It is undubiously shown that a decay in the dynamics of their collaboration rate is found, even including a sex difference. Such findings suggest a widely universal application of the so generalized BA model. PMID:27171424

Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

PubMed

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

2013-01-01

Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change.

PubMed

Aich, Valentin; Liersch, Stefan; Vetter, Tobias; Fournet, Samuel; Andersson, Jafet C M; Calmanti, Sandro; van Weert, Frank H A; Hattermann, Fred F; Paton, Eva N

2016-08-15

This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land transportation model for supply chain manufacturing industries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurniawan, Fajar

2017-12-01

Supply chain is a system that integrates production, inventory, distribution and information processes for increasing productivity and minimize costs. Transportation is an important part of the supply chain system, especially for supporting the material distribution process, work in process products and final products. In fact, Jakarta as the distribution center of manufacturing industries for the industrial area. Transportation system has a large influences on the implementation of supply chain process efficiency. The main problem faced in Jakarta is traffic jam that will affect on the time of distribution. Based on the system dynamic model, there are several scenarios that can provide solutions to minimize timing of distribution that will effect on the cost such as the construction of ports approaching industrial areas other than Tanjung Priok, widening road facilities, development of railways system, and the development of distribution center.

In Pursuit of Analogs for Europa's Dynamics & Potential Habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Britney E.; Blankenship, D. D.; Greenbaum, J. S.; Young, D. A.

2010-10-01

Future Europa exploration will seek to characterize the distribution of shallow subsurface water as well as to understand the formation of surface features through dynamic ice-shell processes. Radar sounding will be a critical tool for imaging these features, and should be of primary interest to the astrobiology community for understanding how and where life might arise on Europa. To develop successful instrumentation and data interpretation techniques for exploring Europa, we must leverage analogous terrestrial environments and processes. Airborne ice penetrating radar is now a mature tool in terrestrial studies of Earth's ice sheets, and orbital examples have been successfully deployed at Earth's Moon and Mars. It is a distinct possibility that water within or just below the ice on Europa has played a role in forming some of its dynamic terrain. Observations of rotated blocks and dark floor materials may suggest that brines existed in the near subsurface and enabled the formation of such features. The University of Texas High Capability Airborne Radar Sounder (HiCARS) developed to study Antarctic ice sheet dynamics has been configured to test observation scenarios for Europa. We discuss recent results from the 60 MHz HiCARS system over brine infiltrated Antarctic marine ice as an analog for processes affecting the formation of pits and chaos. Basal melt occurring below terrestrial marine ice is directly analogous to processes that may operate on Europa if the shell is "thin,” and will be similar to processes occurring instead within the ice sheet in the case of a thicker, multi-layer ice sheet where enriched brines may remain liquid within the shell. A key site for further investigation of conductive and "convective” ices is found in the polythermal glaciers in the Arctic, and the case for this exploration will be illuminated.

Correlation effects in the quench-induced phase separation dynamics of a two species ultracold quantum gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mistakidis, S. I.; Katsimiga, G. C.; Kevrekidis, P. G.; Schmelcher, P.

2018-04-01

We explore the quench dynamics of a binary Bose–Einstein condensate crossing the miscibility–immiscibility threshold and vice versa, both within and in particular beyond the mean-field approximation. Increasing the interspecies repulsion leads to the filamentation of the density of each species, involving shorter wavenumbers and longer spatial scales in the many-body (MB) approach. These filaments appear to be strongly correlated and exhibit domain-wall structures. Following the reverse quench process multiple dark–antidark solitary waves are spontaneously generated and subsequently found to decay in the MB scenario. We simulate single-shot images to connect our findings to possible experimental realizations. Finally, the growth rate of the variance of a sample of single-shots probes the degree of entanglement inherent in the system.

Transversal homoclinic orbits in a transiently chaotic neural network.

PubMed

Chen, Shyan-Shiou; Shih, Chih-Wen

2002-09-01

We study the existence of snap-back repellers, hence the existence of transversal homoclinic orbits in a discrete-time neural network. Chaotic behaviors for the network system in the sense of Li and Yorke or Marotto can then be concluded. The result is established by analyzing the structures of the system and allocating suitable parameters in constructing the fixed points and their pre-images for the system. The investigation provides a theoretical confirmation on the scenario of transient chaos for the system. All the parameter conditions for the theory can be examined numerically. The numerical ranges for the parameters which yield chaotic dynamics and convergent dynamics provide significant information in the annealing process in solving combinatorial optimization problems using this transiently chaotic neural network. (c) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Multi-scale, multi-model assessment of projected land allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Chen, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

Effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on climate are generally classified into two scale-dependent processes: biophysical and biogeochemical. An extensive amount of research has been conducted related to the impact of each process under alternative climate change futures. However, these studies are generally focused on the impacts of a single process and fail to bridge the gap between sector-driven scale dependencies and any associated dynamics. Studies have been conducted to better understand the relationship of these processes but their respective scale has not adequately captured overall interdependencies between land surface changes and changes in other human-earth systems (e.g., energy, water, economic, etc.). There has also been considerable uncertainty surrounding land use land cover downscaling approaches due to scale dependencies. Demeter, a land use land cover downscaling and change detection model, was created to address this science gap. Demeter is an open-source model written in Python that downscales zonal land allocation projections to the gridded resolution of a user-selected spatial base layer (e.g., MODIS, NLCD, EIA CCI, etc.). Demeter was designed to be fully extensible to allow for module inheritance and replacement for custom research needs, such as flexible IO design to facilitate the coupling of Earth system models (e.g., the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM)) to integrated assessment models (e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)). In this study, we first assessed the sensitivity of downscaled LULCC scenarios at multiple resolutions from Demeter to its parameters by comparing them to historical LULC change data. "Optimal" values of key parameters for each region were identified and used to downscale GCAM-based future scenarios consistent with those in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Demeter-downscaled land use scenarios were then compared to the default LUMIP scenarios to illustrate the uncertainties in projected LULC as a result of difference in downscaling algorithms. Our results show that such uncertainties could propagate to other components in ACME and CESM and lead to significant differences in simulated water and biogeochemical cycles.

Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

2008-01-01

A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum visibility across the project. One key aspect is that the tool was built for a scenario process that accounts for stakeholder input, review, comment, and concurrence. By creating well-designed opportunities for stakeholder input and concurrence and by making the scenario content easily accessible to all project personnel, we maximize the opportunities for stakeholders to both understand and agree on the concepts for how their mission is to be carried out.

Use of two indicators for the socio-environmental risk analysis of Northern Mexico under three climate change scenarios.

PubMed

López-Santos, Armando; Martínez-Santiago, Santos

The aims of this study were to (1) find critical areas susceptible to the degradation of natural resources according to local erosion rates and aridity levels, which were used as environmental quality indicators, and (2) identify areas of risk associated with the presence of natural hazards according to three climate change scenarios defined for Mexico. The focus was the municipality of Lerdo, Durango (25.166° to 25.783° N and 103.333° to 103.983° W), which has dry temperate and very dry climates (BSohw and BWhw). From the Global Circulation Models, downscaling techniques for the dynamic modeling of environmental processes using climate data, historical information, and three regionalized climate change scenarios were applied to determine the impacts from laminar wind erosion rates (LWER) and aridity indices (AI). From the historic period to scenario A2 (ScA2, 2010-2039), regarding greenhouse gas emissions, the LWER was predicted to reach 147.2 t ha -1  year -1 , representing a 0.5 m thickness over nearly 30 years and a change in the AI from 9.3 to 8.7. This trend represents an increase in drought for 70.8 % of the study area and could affect 90 % of the agricultural activities and approximately 80 % of the population living in the southeastern Lerdense territory.

Modelling phosphorus transport and its response to climate change at upper stream of Poyang Lake-the largest fresh water lake in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Sanyuan; Zhang, Qi

2017-04-01

Phosphorus losses from excessive fertilizer application and improper land exploitation were found to be the limiting factor for freshwater quality deterioration and eutrophication. Phosphorus transport from uplands to river is related to hydrological, soil erosion and sediment transport processes, which is impacted by several physiographic and meteorological factors. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of phosphorus losses and response to climate change at a typical upstream tributary (Le'An river) of Poyang Lake. To this end, a process-oriented hydrological and nutrient transport model HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) was set up for discharge and phosphorus transport simulation at Le'An catchment. Parameter ESTimator (PEST) was combined with HYPE model for parameter sensitivity analysis and optimisation. In runoff modelling, potential evapotranspiration rate of the dominant land use (forest) is most sensitive; parameters of surface runoff rate and percolation capacity for the red soil are also very sensitive. In phosphorus transport modelling, the exponent of equation for soil erosion processes induced by surface runoff is most sensitive, coefficient of adsorption/desorption processes for red soil is also very sensitive. Flow dynamics and water balance were simulated well at all sites for the whole period (1978-1986) with NSE≥0.80 and PBIAS≤14.53%. The optimized hydrological parameter set were transferable for the independent period (2009-2010) with NSE≥0.90 and highest PBIAS of -7.44% in stream flow simulation. Seasonal dynamics and balance of stream water TP (Total Phosphorus ) concentrations were captured satisfactorily indicated by NSE≥0.53 and highest PBIAS of 16.67%. In annual scale, most phosphorus is transported via surface runoff during heavy storm flow events, which may account for about 70% of annual TP loads. Based on future climate change analysis under three different emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), there is no considerable change in average annual rainfall amount in 2020-2035 while increasing occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events were predicted. The validated HYPE model was run on the three emission scenarios. Overall increase of TP loads was found in future with the largest increase of annual TP loads under the high emission scenario (RCP 8.5). The outcomes of this study (i) verified the transferability of HYPE model at humid subtropical and heterogeneous catchment; (ii) revealed the sensitive hydrological and phosphorus transport processes and relevant parameters; (iii) implied more TP losses in future in response to increasing extreme rainfall events.

Using Multi-scale Dynamic Rupture Models to Improve Ground Motion Estimates: ALCF-2 Early Science Program Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ely, Geoffrey P.

2013-10-31

This project uses dynamic rupture simulations to investigate high-frequency seismic energy generation. The relevant phenomena (frictional breakdown, shear heating, effective normal-stress fluctuations, material damage, etc.) controlling rupture are strongly interacting and span many orders of magnitude in spatial scale, requiring highresolution simulations that couple disparate physical processes (e.g., elastodynamics, thermal weakening, pore-fluid transport, and heat conduction). Compounding the computational challenge, we know that natural faults are not planar, but instead have roughness that can be approximated by power laws potentially leading to large, multiscale fluctuations in normal stress. The capacity to perform 3D rupture simulations that couple these processes willmore » provide guidance for constructing appropriate source models for high-frequency ground motion simulations. The improved rupture models from our multi-scale dynamic rupture simulations will be used to conduct physicsbased (3D waveform modeling-based) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for California. These calculation will provide numerous important seismic hazard results, including a state-wide extended earthquake rupture forecast with rupture variations for all significant events, a synthetic seismogram catalog for thousands of scenario events and more than 5000 physics-based seismic hazard curves for California.« less

A Biologically Informed, Mechanistic Model of Desert Shrub Population Dynamics Bearing on Arid Landscape Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worman, Stacey; Furbish, David; Fathel, Siobhan

2014-05-01

In arid landscapes, desert shrubs individually and collectively modify how sediment is transported (e.g by wind, overland-flow, and rain-splash). Addressing how desert shrubs modify landscapes on geomorphic timescales therefore necessitates spanning multiple shrub lifetimes and accounting for how processes affecting shrub dynamics on these longer timescales (e.g. fire, grazing, drought, and climate change) may in turn impact sediment transport. To fulfill this need, we present a mechanistic model of the spatiotemporal dynamics of a desert-shrub population that uses a simple accounting framework and tracks individual shrubs as they enter, age, and exit the population (via recruitment, growth, and mortality). Our model is novel insomuch as it (1) features a strong biophysical foundation, (2) mimics well-documented aspects of how shrub populations respond to changes in precipitation, and (3) possesses the process granularity appropriate for use in geomorphic simulations. In a complimentary abstract (Fathel et al. 2014), we demonstrate the potential of this biological model by coupling it to a physical model of rain-splash sediment transport: We mechanistically reproduce the empirical observation that the erosion rate of a hillslope decreases as its vegetation coverage increases and we predict erosion rates under different climate-change scenarios.

Investigation of the stochastic nature of wave processes for renewable resources management: a pilot application in a remote island in the Aegean sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moschos, Evangelos; Manou, Georgia; Georganta, Xristina; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Tyralis, Hristos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Tsoukala, Vicky

2017-04-01

The large energy potential of ocean dynamics is not yet being efficiently harvested mostly due to several technological and financial drawbacks. Nevertheless, modern renewable energy systems include wave and tidal energy in cases of nearshore locations. Although the variability of tidal waves can be adequately predictable, wind-generated waves entail a much larger uncertainty due to their dependence to the wind process. Recent research has shown, through estimation of the wave energy potential in coastal areas of the Aegean Sea, that installation of wave energy converters in nearshore locations could be an applicable scenario, assisting the electrical network of Greek islands. In this context, we analyze numerous of observations and we investigate the long-term behaviour of wave height and wave period processes. Additionally, we examine the case of a remote island in the Aegean sea, by estimating the local wave climate through past analysis data and numerical methods, and subsequently applying a parsimonious stochastic model to a theoretical scenario of wave energy production. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

Parallel STEPS: Large Scale Stochastic Spatial Reaction-Diffusion Simulation with High Performance Computers

PubMed Central

Chen, Weiliang; De Schutter, Erik

2017-01-01

Stochastic, spatial reaction-diffusion simulations have been widely used in systems biology and computational neuroscience. However, the increasing scale and complexity of models and morphologies have exceeded the capacity of any serial implementation. This led to the development of parallel solutions that benefit from the boost in performance of modern supercomputers. In this paper, we describe an MPI-based, parallel operator-splitting implementation for stochastic spatial reaction-diffusion simulations with irregular tetrahedral meshes. The performance of our implementation is first examined and analyzed with simulations of a simple model. We then demonstrate its application to real-world research by simulating the reaction-diffusion components of a published calcium burst model in both Purkinje neuron sub-branch and full dendrite morphologies. Simulation results indicate that our implementation is capable of achieving super-linear speedup for balanced loading simulations with reasonable molecule density and mesh quality. In the best scenario, a parallel simulation with 2,000 processes runs more than 3,600 times faster than its serial SSA counterpart, and achieves more than 20-fold speedup relative to parallel simulation with 100 processes. In a more realistic scenario with dynamic calcium influx and data recording, the parallel simulation with 1,000 processes and no load balancing is still 500 times faster than the conventional serial SSA simulation. PMID:28239346

Parallel STEPS: Large Scale Stochastic Spatial Reaction-Diffusion Simulation with High Performance Computers.

PubMed

Chen, Weiliang; De Schutter, Erik

2017-01-01

Stochastic, spatial reaction-diffusion simulations have been widely used in systems biology and computational neuroscience. However, the increasing scale and complexity of models and morphologies have exceeded the capacity of any serial implementation. This led to the development of parallel solutions that benefit from the boost in performance of modern supercomputers. In this paper, we describe an MPI-based, parallel operator-splitting implementation for stochastic spatial reaction-diffusion simulations with irregular tetrahedral meshes. The performance of our implementation is first examined and analyzed with simulations of a simple model. We then demonstrate its application to real-world research by simulating the reaction-diffusion components of a published calcium burst model in both Purkinje neuron sub-branch and full dendrite morphologies. Simulation results indicate that our implementation is capable of achieving super-linear speedup for balanced loading simulations with reasonable molecule density and mesh quality. In the best scenario, a parallel simulation with 2,000 processes runs more than 3,600 times faster than its serial SSA counterpart, and achieves more than 20-fold speedup relative to parallel simulation with 100 processes. In a more realistic scenario with dynamic calcium influx and data recording, the parallel simulation with 1,000 processes and no load balancing is still 500 times faster than the conventional serial SSA simulation.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

Comparative Synthesis of Current and Future Urban Stormwater Runoff Scenarios in Tampa Bay Basin under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

Changes in climatic regimes and basin characteristics such as imperviousness, roughness and land use types would lead to potential changes in stormwater budget. In this study we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to the potential climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model for the Tampa Bay Basin of Florida using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Key processes of urban hydrology, its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea level, hydro-climatic variables and land use/cover characteristics were incorporated within the model. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. We then computed the historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets for the Tampa Bay Basin. Climatic scenario projected by the global climate models (GCMs) and the regional climate models (RCMs), along with sea level and land use/cover projections, were utilized to anticipate the future stormwater budget. The comparative assessment of current and future stormwater scenario will aid a proactive management of stormwater runoff under a changing climate in the Tampa Bay Basin and similar urban basins around the world.

Stochastic Earthquake Rupture Modeling Using Nonparametric Co-Regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Kyungbook; Song, Seok Goo

2017-09-01

Accurate predictions of the intensity and variability of ground motions are essential in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment. Advanced simulation-based ground motion prediction methods have been proposed to complement the empirical approach, which suffers from the lack of observed ground motion data, especially in the near-source region for large events. It is important to quantify the variability of the earthquake rupture process for future events and to produce a number of rupture scenario models to capture the variability in simulation-based ground motion predictions. In this study, we improved the previously developed stochastic earthquake rupture modeling method by applying the nonparametric co-regionalization, which was proposed in geostatistics, to the correlation models estimated from dynamically derived earthquake rupture models. The nonparametric approach adopted in this study is computationally efficient and, therefore, enables us to simulate numerous rupture scenarios, including large events ( M > 7.0). It also gives us an opportunity to check the shape of true input correlation models in stochastic modeling after being deformed for permissibility. We expect that this type of modeling will improve our ability to simulate a wide range of rupture scenario models and thereby predict ground motions and perform seismic hazard assessment more accurately.

Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets.

PubMed

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Spinoni, Jonathan; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-05-01

The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha -1  h -1  yr -1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

SLiM 2: Flexible, Interactive Forward Genetic Simulations.

PubMed

Haller, Benjamin C; Messer, Philipp W

2017-01-01

Modern population genomic datasets hold immense promise for revealing the evolutionary processes operating in natural populations, but a crucial prerequisite for this goal is the ability to model realistic evolutionary scenarios and predict their expected patterns in genomic data. To that end, we present SLiM 2: an evolutionary simulation framework that combines a powerful, fast engine for forward population genetic simulations with the capability of modeling a wide variety of complex evolutionary scenarios. SLiM achieves this flexibility through scriptability, which provides control over most aspects of the simulated evolutionary scenarios with a simple R-like scripting language called Eidos. An example SLiM simulation is presented to illustrate the power of this approach. SLiM 2 also includes a graphical user interface for simulation construction, interactive runtime control, and dynamic visualization of simulation output, facilitating easy and fast model development with quick prototyping and visual debugging. We conclude with a performance comparison between SLiM and two other popular forward genetic simulation packages. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Stochastic Laplacian growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Oleg; Mineev-Weinstein, Mark

2016-12-01

A point source on a plane constantly emits particles which rapidly diffuse and then stick to a growing cluster. The growth probability of a cluster is presented as a sum over all possible scenarios leading to the same final shape. The classical point for the action, defined as a minus logarithm of the growth probability, describes the most probable scenario and reproduces the Laplacian growth equation, which embraces numerous fundamental free boundary dynamics in nonequilibrium physics. For nonclassical scenarios we introduce virtual point sources, in which presence the action becomes the Kullback-Leibler entropy. Strikingly, this entropy is shown to be the sum of electrostatic energies of layers grown per elementary time unit. Hence the growth probability of the presented nonequilibrium process obeys the Gibbs-Boltzmann statistics, which, as a rule, is not applied out from equilibrium. Each layer's probability is expressed as a product of simple factors in an auxiliary complex plane after a properly chosen conformal map. The action at this plane is a sum of Robin functions, which solve the Liouville equation. At the end we establish connections of our theory with the τ function of the integrable Toda hierarchy and with the Liouville theory for noncritical quantum strings.

Measuring the dark matter equation of state and its cosmological consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez Romero, Mariano Javier de León; Ruiz, Andrés Nicolás

2012-10-01

We explore the consequences of the measurements of the equation of state of dark matter7, on the homogenous FRW universe dynamics and build an alternative cosmological scenario to the concordance ΛCDM universe. The new paradigm is based on the introduction of an effective scalar field replacing the undetected components of the dark sector: dark matter and dark energy in the form of a cosmological constant. The scalar field obeys a barotropic equation of state p = ωρ with ω = -1/3 and dominates the cosmological dynamics in the last 14.27 Gyr, in a universe with an age of 14.83 Gyr . Before that epoch, baryons and photons drove the general behaviour of the universe as in the standard ΛCDM scenario. We compute a minimal set of cosmological parameters which allow us to reproduce several observational results such us baryon abundance, constrains on the age of the universe, the astronomical scale of distance and the high redshift supernova data with a high degree of precision. However, it should be emphasized that the new model is not accelerating, instead expands asymptotically towards an Einstein Static Universe. We briefly mention the possible mechanisms behind the origin of such dominant component and analyze the prospective of reproducing the success of the standard cosmological model explaining the process of structure formation.

Dynamic modeling of the Ganga river system: impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on flows and nitrogen fluxes in India and Bangladesh.

PubMed

Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Jin, L; Futter, M N; Caesar, J; Barbour, E; Butterfield, D; Sinha, R; Nicholls, R; Hutton, C; Leckie, H D

2015-06-01

This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic change on the flow and nitrogen fluxes of the Ganga river system. This is the first basin scale water quality study for the Ganga considering climate change at 25 km resolution together with socio-economic scenarios. The revised dynamic, process-based INCA model was used to simulate hydrology and water quality within the complex multi-branched river basins. All climate realizations utilized in the study predict increases in temperature and rainfall by the 2050s with significant increase by the 2090s. These changes generate associated increases in monsoon flows and increased availability of water for groundwater recharge and irrigation, but also more frequent flooding. Decreased concentrations of nitrate and ammonia are expected due to increased dilution. Different future socio-economic scenarios were found to have a significant impact on water quality at the downstream end of the Ganga. A less sustainable future resulted in a deterioration of water quality due to the pressures from higher population growth, land use change, increased sewage treatment discharges, enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and water abstraction. However, water quality was found to improve under a more sustainable strategy as envisaged in the Ganga clean-up plan.

Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zulkepli, Jafri, E-mail: zhjafri@uum.edu.my; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal, E-mail: nhaslinda@uum.edu.my; Fong, Chan Hwa, E-mail: hfchan7623@yahoo.com

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand frommore » the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.« less

Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Chen, Haishan

Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In our study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, amore » process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081–2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981–2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. Moreover, these uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to be seen in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Including representation of vegetation dynamics is expected to further amplify the model-related uncertainties in projected future changes in surface water and heat fluxes as well as soil moisture content. This is especially the case in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (e.g., northwestern North America and central North Asia) where the projected vegetation changes are uncertain and in the Tropics (e.g., the Amazon and Congo Basins) where dense vegetation exists. Finally, findings from this study highlight the importance of improving land surface model parameterizations related to soil and snow processes, as well as the importance of improving the accuracy of dynamic vegetation models.« less

Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

DOE PAGES

Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Chen, Haishan

2016-03-01

Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In our study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, amore » process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081–2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981–2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. Moreover, these uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to be seen in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Including representation of vegetation dynamics is expected to further amplify the model-related uncertainties in projected future changes in surface water and heat fluxes as well as soil moisture content. This is especially the case in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (e.g., northwestern North America and central North Asia) where the projected vegetation changes are uncertain and in the Tropics (e.g., the Amazon and Congo Basins) where dense vegetation exists. Finally, findings from this study highlight the importance of improving land surface model parameterizations related to soil and snow processes, as well as the importance of improving the accuracy of dynamic vegetation models.« less

Exploring Land Use and Land Cover Change and Feedbacks in the Global Change Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) is a major driver of global and regional environmental change. Projections of land use change are thus an essential component in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to study feedbacks between transformation of energy systems and land productivity under the context of climate change. However, the spatial scale of IAMs, e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), is typically larger than the scale of terrestrial processes in the human-Earth system, LULCC downscaling therefore becomes a critical linkage among these multi-scale and multi-sector processes. Parametric uncertainties in LULCC downscaling algorithms, however, have been under explored, especially in the context of how such uncertainties could propagate to affect energy systems in a changing climate. In this study, we use a LULCC downscaling model, Demeter, to downscale GCAM-based future land use scenarios into fine spatial scales, and explore the sensitivity of downscaled land allocations to key parameters. Land productivity estimates (e.g., biomass production and crop yield) based on the downscaled LULCC scenarios are then fed to GCAM to evaluate how energy systems might change due to altered water and carbon cycle dynamics and their interactions with the human system, , which would in turn affect future land use projections. We demonstrate that uncertainties in LULCC downscaling can result in significant differences in simulated scenarios, indicating the importance of quantifying parametric uncertainties in LULCC downscaling models for integrated assessment studies.

Estimating Biofuel Feedstock Water Footprints Using System Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Inman, Daniel; Warner, Ethan; Stright, Dana

Increased biofuel production has prompted concerns about the environmental tradeoffs of biofuels compared to petroleum-based fuels. Biofuel production in general, and feedstock production in particular, is under increased scrutiny. Water footprinting (measuring direct and indirect water use) has been proposed as one measure to evaluate water use in the context of concerns about depleting rural water supplies through activities such as irrigation for large-scale agriculture. Water footprinting literature has often been limited in one or more key aspects: complete assessment across multiple water stocks (e.g., vadose zone, surface, and ground water stocks), geographical resolution of data, consistent representation of manymore » feedstocks, and flexibility to perform scenario analysis. We developed a model called BioSpatial H2O using a system dynamics modeling and database framework. BioSpatial H2O could be used to consistently evaluate the complete water footprints of multiple biomass feedstocks at high geospatial resolutions. BioSpatial H2O has the flexibility to perform simultaneous scenario analysis of current and potential future crops under alternative yield and climate conditions. In this proof-of-concept paper, we modeled corn grain (Zea mays L.) and soybeans (Glycine max) under current conditions as illustrative results. BioSpatial H2O links to a unique database that houses annual spatially explicit climate, soil, and plant physiological data. Parameters from the database are used as inputs to our system dynamics model for estimating annual crop water requirements using daily time steps. Based on our review of the literature, estimated green water footprints are comparable to other modeled results, suggesting that BioSpatial H2O is computationally sound for future scenario analysis. Our modeling framework builds on previous water use analyses to provide a platform for scenario-based assessment. BioSpatial H2O's system dynamics is a flexible and user-friendly interface for on-demand, spatially explicit, water use scenario analysis for many US agricultural crops. Built-in controls permit users to quickly make modifications to the model assumptions, such as those affecting yield, and to see the implications of those results in real time. BioSpatial H2O's dynamic capabilities and adjustable climate data allow for analyses of water use and management scenarios to inform current and potential future bioenergy policies. The model could also be adapted for scenario analysis of alternative climatic conditions and comparison of multiple crops. The results of such an analysis would help identify risks associated with water use competition among feedstocks in certain regions. Results could also inform research and development efforts that seek to reduce water-related risks of biofuel pathways.« less

Integration of climatic water deficit and fine-scale physiography in process-based modeling of forest landscape resilience to large-scale tree mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Weisberg, P.; Dilts, T.

2016-12-01

Climate warming can lead to large-scale drought-induced tree mortality events and greatly affect forest landscape resilience. Climatic water deficit (CWD) and its physiographic variations provide a key mechanism in driving landscape dynamics in response to climate change. Although CWD has been successfully applied in niche-based species distribution models, its application in process-based forest landscape models is still scarce. Here we present a framework incorporating fine-scale influence of terrain on ecohydrology in modeling forest landscape dynamics. We integrated CWD with a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate how tree species distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios across an elevation-aspect gradient in a semi-arid montane landscape of northeastern Nevada, USA. Our simulations indicated that drought-intolerant tree species such as quaking aspen could experience greatly reduced distributions in the more arid portions of their existing ranges due to water stress limitations under future climate warming scenarios. However, even at the most xeric portions of its range, aspen is likely to persist in certain environmental settings due to unique and often fine-scale combinations of resource availability, species interactions and disturbance regime. The modeling approach presented here allowed identification of these refugia. In addition, this approach helped quantify how the direction and magnitude of fire influences on species distribution would vary across topoclimatic gradients, as well as furthers our understanding on the role of environmental conditions, fire, and inter-specific competition in shaping potential responses of landscape resilience to climate change.

Dynamic Evolution Of Off-Fault Medium During An Earthquake: A Micromechanics Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Marion Y.; Bhat, Harsha S.

2018-05-01

Geophysical observations show a dramatic drop of seismic wave speeds in the shallow off-fault medium following earthquake ruptures. Seismic ruptures generate, or reactivate, damage around faults that alter the constitutive response of the surrounding medium, which in turn modifies the earthquake itself, the seismic radiation, and the near-fault ground motion. We present a micromechanics based constitutive model that accounts for dynamic evolution of elastic moduli at high-strain rates. We consider 2D in-plane models, with a 1D right lateral fault featuring slip-weakening friction law. The two scenarios studied here assume uniform initial off-fault damage and an observationally motivated exponential decay of initial damage with fault normal distance. Both scenarios produce dynamic damage that is consistent with geological observations. A small difference in initial damage actively impacts the final damage pattern. The second numerical experiment, in particular, highlights the complex feedback that exists between the evolving medium and the seismic event. We show that there is a unique off-fault damage pattern associated with supershear transition of an earthquake rupture that could be potentially seen as a geological signature of this transition. These scenarios presented here underline the importance of incorporating the complex structure of fault zone systems in dynamic models of earthquakes.

Dynamic Evolution Of Off-Fault Medium During An Earthquake: A Micromechanics Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, M. Y.; Bhat, H. S.

2017-12-01

Geophysical observations show a dramatic drop of seismic wave speeds in the shallow off-fault medium following earthquake ruptures. Seismic ruptures generate, or reactivate, damage around faults that alter the constitutive response of the surrounding medium, which in turn modifies the earthquake itself, the seismic radiation, and the near-fault ground motion. We present a micromechanics based constitutive model that accounts for dynamic evolution of elastic moduli at high-strain rates. We consider 2D in-plane models, with a 1D right lateral fault featuring slip-weakening friction law. The two scenarios studied here assume uniform initial off-fault damage and an observationally motivated exponential decay of initial damage with fault normal distance. Both scenarios produce dynamic damage that is consistent with geological observations. A small difference in initial damage actively impacts the final damage pattern. The second numerical experiment, in particular, highlights the complex feedback that exists between the evolving medium and the seismic event. We show that there is a unique off-fault damage pattern associated with supershear transition of an earthquake rupture that could be potentially seen as a geological signature of this transition. These scenarios presented here underline the importance of incorporating the complex structure of fault zone systems in dynamic models of earthquakes.

Integration of Multiple Data Sources to Simulate the Dynamics of Land Systems

PubMed Central

Deng, Xiangzheng; Su, Hongbo; Zhan, Jinyan

2008-01-01

In this paper we present and develop a new model, which we have called Dynamics of Land Systems (DLS). The DLS model is capable of integrating multiple data sources to simulate the dynamics of a land system. Three main modules are incorporated in DLS: a spatial regression module, to explore the relationship between land uses and influencing factors, a scenario analysis module of the land uses of a region during the simulation period and a spatial disaggregation module, to allocate land use changes from a regional level to disaggregated grid cells. A case study on Taips County in North China is incorporated in this paper to test the functionality of DLS. The simulation results under the baseline, economic priority and environmental scenarios help to understand the land system dynamics and project near future land-use trajectories of a region, in order to focus management decisions on land uses and land use planning. PMID:27879726

Evidence of weak land-atmosphere coupling under varying bare soil conditions: Are fully coupled Darcy/Navier-Stokes models necessary for simulating soil moisture dynamics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illangasekare, T. H.; Trautz, A. C.; Howington, S. E.; Cihan, A.

2017-12-01

It is a well-established fact that the land and atmosphere form a continuum in which the individual domains are coupled by heat and mass transfer processes such as bare-soil evaporation. Soil moisture dynamics can be simulated at the representative elementary volume (REV) scale using decoupled and fully coupled Darcy/Navier-Stokes models. Decoupled modeling is an asynchronous approach in which flow and transport in the soil and atmosphere is simulated independently; the two domains are coupled out of time-step via prescribed flux parameterizations. Fully coupled modeling in contrast, solves the governing equations for flow and transport in both domains simultaneously with the use of coupling interface boundary conditions. This latter approach, while being able to provide real-time two-dimensional feedbacks, is considerably more complex and computationally intensive. In this study, we investigate whether fully coupled models are necessary, or if the simpler decoupled models can sufficiently capture soil moisture dynamics under varying land preparations. A series of intermediate-scale physical and numerical experiments were conducted in which soil moisture distributions and evaporation estimates were monitored at high spatiotemporal resolutions for different heterogeneous packing and soil roughness scenarios. All experimentation was conducted at the newly developed Center for Experimental Study of Subsurface Environmental Processes (CESEP) wind tunnel-porous media user test-facility at the Colorado School of. Near-surface atmospheric measurements made during the experiments demonstrate that the land-atmosphere coupling was relatively weak and insensitive to the applied edaphic and surface conditions. Simulations with a decoupled multiphase heat and mass transfer model similarly show little sensitivity to local variations in atmospheric forcing; a single, simple flux parameterization can sufficiently capture the soil moisture dynamics (evaporation and redistribution) as long as the subsurface conditions (i.e., heterogeneity) are properly described. These findings suggest that significant improvements to simulations results should not be expected if fully coupled modeling were adopted in scenarios of weak land-atmosphere coupling in the context of bare soil evaporation.

A membrane computing simulator of trans-hierarchical antibiotic resistance evolution dynamics in nested ecological compartments (ARES).

PubMed

Campos, Marcelino; Llorens, Carlos; Sempere, José M; Futami, Ricardo; Rodriguez, Irene; Carrasco, Purificación; Capilla, Rafael; Latorre, Amparo; Coque, Teresa M; Moya, Andres; Baquero, Fernando

2015-08-05

Antibiotic resistance is a major biomedical problem upon which public health systems demand solutions to construe the dynamics and epidemiological risk of resistant bacteria in anthropogenically-altered environments. The implementation of computable models with reciprocity within and between levels of biological organization (i.e. essential nesting) is central for studying antibiotic resistances. Antibiotic resistance is not just the result of antibiotic-driven selection but more properly the consequence of a complex hierarchy of processes shaping the ecology and evolution of the distinct subcellular, cellular and supra-cellular vehicles involved in the dissemination of resistance genes. Such a complex background motivated us to explore the P-system standards of membrane computing an innovative natural computing formalism that abstracts the notion of movement across membranes to simulate antibiotic resistance evolution processes across nested levels of micro- and macro-environmental organization in a given ecosystem. In this article, we introduce ARES (Antibiotic Resistance Evolution Simulator) a software device that simulates P-system model scenarios with five types of nested computing membranes oriented to emulate a hierarchy of eco-biological compartments, i.e. a) peripheral ecosystem; b) local environment; c) reservoir of supplies; d) animal host; and e) host's associated bacterial organisms (microbiome). Computational objects emulating molecular entities such as plasmids, antibiotic resistance genes, antimicrobials, and/or other substances can be introduced into this framework and may interact and evolve together with the membranes, according to a set of pre-established rules and specifications. ARES has been implemented as an online server and offers additional tools for storage and model editing and downstream analysis. The stochastic nature of the P-system model implemented in ARES explicitly links within and between host dynamics into a simulation, with feedback reciprocity among the different units of selection influenced by antibiotic exposure at various ecological levels. ARES offers the possibility of modeling predictive multilevel scenarios of antibiotic resistance evolution that can be interrogated, edited and re-simulated if necessary, with different parameters, until a correct model description of the process in the real world is convincingly approached. ARES can be accessed at http://gydb.org/ares.

Rapid Structured Volume Grid Smoothing and Adaption Technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alter, Stephen J.

2006-01-01

A rapid, structured volume grid smoothing and adaption technique, based on signal processing methods, was developed and applied to the Shuttle Orbiter at hypervelocity flight conditions in support of the Columbia Accident Investigation. Because of the fast pace of the investigation, computational aerothermodynamicists, applying hypersonic viscous flow solving computational fluid dynamic (CFD) codes, refined and enhanced a grid for an undamaged baseline vehicle to assess a variety of damage scenarios. Of the many methods available to modify a structured grid, most are time-consuming and require significant user interaction. By casting the grid data into different coordinate systems, specifically two computational coordinates with arclength as the third coordinate, signal processing methods are used for filtering the data [Taubin, CG v/29 1995]. Using a reverse transformation, the processed data are used to smooth the Cartesian coordinates of the structured grids. By coupling the signal processing method with existing grid operations within the Volume Grid Manipulator tool, problems related to grid smoothing are solved efficiently and with minimal user interaction. Examples of these smoothing operations are illustrated for reductions in grid stretching and volume grid adaptation. In each of these examples, other techniques existed at the time of the Columbia accident, but the incorporation of signal processing techniques reduced the time to perform the corrections by nearly 60%. This reduction in time to perform the corrections therefore enabled the assessment of approximately twice the number of damage scenarios than previously possible during the allocated investigation time.

Rapid Structured Volume Grid Smoothing and Adaption Technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alter, Stephen J.

2004-01-01

A rapid, structured volume grid smoothing and adaption technique, based on signal processing methods, was developed and applied to the Shuttle Orbiter at hypervelocity flight conditions in support of the Columbia Accident Investigation. Because of the fast pace of the investigation, computational aerothermodynamicists, applying hypersonic viscous flow solving computational fluid dynamic (CFD) codes, refined and enhanced a grid for an undamaged baseline vehicle to assess a variety of damage scenarios. Of the many methods available to modify a structured grid, most are time-consuming and require significant user interaction. By casting the grid data into different coordinate systems, specifically two computational coordinates with arclength as the third coordinate, signal processing methods are used for filtering the data [Taubin, CG v/29 1995]. Using a reverse transformation, the processed data are used to smooth the Cartesian coordinates of the structured grids. By coupling the signal processing method with existing grid operations within the Volume Grid Manipulator tool, problems related to grid smoothing are solved efficiently and with minimal user interaction. Examples of these smoothing operations are illustrated for reduction in grid stretching and volume grid adaptation. In each of these examples, other techniques existed at the time of the Columbia accident, but the incorporation of signal processing techniques reduced the time to perform the corrections by nearly 60%. This reduction in time to perform the corrections therefore enabled the assessment of approximately twice the number of damage scenarios than previously possible during the allocated investigation time.

Importance of soil thermal dynamics on land carbon sequestration in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kicklighter, David; Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry

2015-04-01

Recent modeling studies have suggested that carbon sinks in pan-arctic ecosystems may be weakening partially as a result of warming-induced increases in soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and the exposure of previously frozen SOM to decomposition. This weakening of carbon sinks is likely to continue in the future as vast amount of carbon in permafrost soils is vulnerable to thaw. Here, we examine the importance of considering soil thermal dynamics when determining the effects of climate change and land-use change on carbon dynamics in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century. This importance is assessed by comparing results for a "business as usual" scenario between a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model that does not consider soil thermal dynamics (TEM 4.4) and a version that does consider these dynamics (TEM 6.0). In this scenario, which is similar to the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the net area covered by food crops and pastures in Northern Eurasia is assumed to remain relatively constant over the 21st century, but the area covered by secondary forests is projected to double as a result of timber harvest and the abandonment of land associated with displacement of agricultural land. Enhanced decomposition from the newly exposed SOM from permafrost thaw also increases nitrogen availability for plant production so that the loss of carbon from the enhanced decomposition is partially compensated by enhanced uptake and storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide in vegetation. Our results indicate that consideration of soil thermal dynamics have a large influence on how simulated terrestrial carbon dynamics in Northern Eurasia respond to changes in climate, atmospheric chemistry (e.g., carbon dioxide fertilization, ozone pollution, nitrogen deposition) and disturbances.

Climate Change and Socio-Hydrological Dynamics: Adaptations and Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woyessa, Yali E.; Welderufael, Worku A.

2012-10-01

A functioning ecological system results in ecosystem goods and services which are of direct value to human beings. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes which sustain and fulfil human life, and maintain biodiversity and the production of ecosystem goods. However, human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threatens to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the provision of ecosystem services and how they change under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting landuse changes. Recently, the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. The agent-based perspective, with regard to land-use cover change, is centered on the general nature and rules of land-use decision making by individuals. A conceptual framework is developed to investigate the possibility of incorporating the human dimension of land use decision and climate change model into a hydrological model in order to assess the impact of future land use scenario and climate change on the ecological system in general and water resources in particular.

DengueME: A Tool for the Modeling and Simulation of Dengue Spatiotemporal Dynamics †

PubMed Central

de Lima, Tiago França Melo; Lana, Raquel Martins; de Senna Carneiro, Tiago Garcia; Codeço, Cláudia Torres; Machado, Gabriel Souza; Ferreira, Lucas Saraiva; de Castro Medeiros, Líliam César; Davis Junior, Clodoveu Augusto

2016-01-01

The prevention and control of dengue are great public health challenges for many countries, particularly since 2015, as other arboviruses have been observed to interact significantly with dengue virus. Different approaches and methodologies have been proposed and discussed by the research community. An important tool widely used is modeling and simulation, which help us to understand epidemic dynamics and create scenarios to support planning and decision making processes. With this aim, we proposed and developed DengueME, a collaborative open source platform to simulate dengue disease and its vector’s dynamics. It supports compartmental and individual-based models, implemented over a GIS database, that represent Aedes aegypti population dynamics, human demography, human mobility, urban landscape and dengue transmission mediated by human and mosquito encounters. A user-friendly graphical interface was developed to facilitate model configuration and data input, and a library of models was developed to support teaching-learning activities. DengueME was applied in study cases and evaluated by specialists. Other improvements will be made in future work, to enhance its extensibility and usability. PMID:27649226

Dynamic Price Vector Formation Model-Based Automatic Demand Response Strategy for PV-Assisted EV Charging Stations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Qifang; Wang, Fei; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

A real-time price (RTP)-based automatic demand response (ADR) strategy for PV-assisted electric vehicle (EV) Charging Station (PVCS) without vehicle to grid is proposed. The charging process is modeled as a dynamic linear program instead of the normal day-ahead and real-time regulation strategy, to capture the advantages of both global and real-time optimization. Different from conventional price forecasting algorithms, a dynamic price vector formation model is proposed based on a clustering algorithm to form an RTP vector for a particular day. A dynamic feasible energy demand region (DFEDR) model considering grid voltage profiles is designed to calculate the lower and uppermore » bounds. A deduction method is proposed to deal with the unknown information of future intervals, such as the actual stochastic arrival and departure times of EVs, which make the DFEDR model suitable for global optimization. Finally, both the comparative cases articulate the advantages of the developed methods and the validity in reducing electricity costs, mitigating peak charging demand, and improving PV self-consumption of the proposed strategy are verified through simulation scenarios.« less

Noise-induced transitions and shifts in a climate-vegetation feedback model.

PubMed

Alexandrov, Dmitri V; Bashkirtseva, Irina A; Ryashko, Lev B

2018-04-01

Motivated by the extremely important role of the Earth's vegetation dynamics in climate changes, we study the stochastic variability of a simple climate-vegetation system. In the case of deterministic dynamics, the system has one stable equilibrium and limit cycle or two stable equilibria corresponding to two opposite (cold and warm) climate-vegetation states. These states are divided by a separatrix going across a point of unstable equilibrium. Some possible stochastic scenarios caused by different externally induced natural and anthropogenic processes inherit properties of deterministic behaviour and drastically change the system dynamics. We demonstrate that the system transitions across its separatrix occur with increasing noise intensity. The climate-vegetation system therewith fluctuates, transits and localizes in the vicinity of its attractor. We show that this phenomenon occurs within some critical range of noise intensities. A noise-induced shift into the range of smaller global average temperatures corresponding to substantial oscillations of the Earth's vegetation cover is revealed. Our analysis demonstrates that the climate-vegetation interactions essentially contribute to climate dynamics and should be taken into account in more precise and complex models of climate variability.

Knowledge Base for Automatic Generation of Online IMS LD Compliant Course Structures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pacurar, Ecaterina Giacomini; Trigano, Philippe; Alupoaie, Sorin

2006-01-01

Our article presents a pedagogical scenarios-based web application that allows the automatic generation and development of pedagogical websites. These pedagogical scenarios are represented in the IMS Learning Design standard. Our application is a web portal helping teachers to dynamically generate web course structures, to edit pedagogical content…

Test and Evaluation of MeshDynamics 802.11 Multi-Radio Mesh Modules in Support of Coalition Riverine Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

scenario, occurring just north of Chiang Mai , Thailand at the Mae Ngat Dam. Figure 3 is a map of Thailand and some of its bordering countries...displayed, and distributed in real-time to local ( Chiang Mai ), theater (Bangkok), and global (Alameda and Monterey, CA) Command and Control (C2) 11...systems in support of tactical action scenarios. This year’s COASTS scenario took place at the Mae Ngat Dam, located just north of Chiang Mai , Thailand

Dynamic simulation of storm-driven barrier island morphology under future sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passeri, D. L.; Long, J.; Plant, N. G.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.

2016-12-01

The impacts of short-term processes such as tropical and extratropical storms have the potential to alter barrier island morphology. On the event scale, the effects of storm-driven morphology may result in damage or loss of property, infrastructure and habitat. On the decadal scale, the combination of storms and sea level rise (SLR) will evolve barrier islands. The effects of SLR on hydrodynamics and coastal morphology are dynamic and inter-related; nonlinearities in SLR can cause larger peak surges, lengthier inundation times and additional inundated land, which may result in increased erosion, overwash or breaching along barrier islands. This study uses a two-dimensional morphodynamic model (XBeach) to examine the response of Dauphin Island, AL to storm surge under future SLR. The model is forced with water levels and waves provided by a large-domain hydrodynamic model. A historic validation of hurricanes Ivan and Katrina indicates the model is capable of predicting morphologic response with high skill (0.5). The validated model is used to simulate storm surge driven by Ivan and Katrina under four future SLR scenarios, ranging from 20 cm to 2 m. Each SLR scenario is implemented using a static or "bathtub" approach (in which water levels are increased linearly by the amount of SLR) versus a dynamic approach (in which SLR is applied at the open ocean boundary of the hydrodynamic model and allowed to propagate through the domain as guided by the governing equations). Results illustrate that higher amounts of SLR result in additional shoreline change, dune erosion, overwash and breaching. Compared to the dynamic approach, the static approach over-predicts inundation, dune erosion, overwash and breaching of the island. Overall, results provide a better understanding of the effects of SLR on storm-driven barrier island morphology and support a paradigm shift away from the "bathtub" approach, towards considering the integrated, dynamic effects of SLR.

Dynamic rupture models of subduction zone earthquakes with off-fault plasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wollherr, S.; van Zelst, I.; Gabriel, A. A.; van Dinther, Y.; Madden, E. H.; Ulrich, T.

2017-12-01

Modeling tsunami-genesis based on purely elastic seafloor displacement typically underpredicts tsunami sizes. Dynamic rupture simulations allow to analyse whether plastic energy dissipation is a missing rheological component by capturing the complex interplay of the rupture front, emitted seismic waves and the free surface in the accretionary prism. Strike-slip models with off-fault plasticity suggest decreasing rupture speed and extensive plastic yielding mainly at shallow depths. For simplified subduction geometries inelastic deformation on the verge of Coulomb failure may enhance vertical displacement, which in turn favors the generation of large tsunamis (Ma, 2012). However, constraining appropriate initial conditions in terms of fault geometry, initial fault stress and strength remains challenging. Here, we present dynamic rupture models of subduction zones constrained by long-term seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling (STM) without any a priori assumption of regions of failure. The STM model provides self-consistent slab geometries, as well as stress and strength initial conditions which evolve in response to tectonic stresses, temperature, gravity, plasticity and pressure (van Dinther et al. 2013). Coseismic slip and coupled seismic wave propagation is modelled using the software package SeisSol (www.seissol.org), suited for complex fault zone structures and topography/bathymetry. SeisSol allows for local time-stepping, which drastically reduces the time-to-solution (Uphoff et al., 2017). This is particularly important in large-scale scenarios resolving small-scale features, such as the shallow angle between the megathrust fault and the free surface. Our dynamic rupture model uses a Drucker-Prager plastic yield criterion and accounts for thermal pressurization around the fault mimicking the effect of pore pressure changes due to frictional heating. We first analyze the influence of this rheology on rupture dynamics and tsunamigenic properties, i.e. seafloor displacement, in 2D. Finally, we use the same rheology in a large-scale 3D scenario of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake to shed light to the source process that caused the subsequent devastating tsunami.

Towards an optimal adaptation of exposure to NOAA assessment methodology in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS): the challenges and the decision-making process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López de Ipiña, JM; Vaquero, C.; Gutierrez-Cañas, C.

2017-06-01

It is expected a progressive increase of the industrial processes that manufacture of intermediate (iNEPs) and end products incorporating ENMs (eNEPs) to bring about improved properties. Therefore, the assessment of occupational exposure to airborne NOAA will migrate, from the simple and well-controlled exposure scenarios in research laboratories and ENMs production plants using innovative production technologies, to much more complex exposure scenarios located around processes of manufacture of eNEPs that, in many cases, will be modified conventional production processes. Here will be discussed some of the typical challenging situations in the process of risk assessment of inhalation exposure to NOAA in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS), from the basis of the lessons learned when confronted to those scenarios in the frame of some European and Spanish research projects.

Capacities of quantum amplifier channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Haoyu; Wilde, Mark M.

2017-01-01

Quantum amplifier channels are at the core of several physical processes. Not only do they model the optical process of spontaneous parametric down-conversion, but the transformation corresponding to an amplifier channel also describes the physics of the dynamical Casimir effect in superconducting circuits, the Unruh effect, and Hawking radiation. Here we study the communication capabilities of quantum amplifier channels. Invoking a recently established minimum output-entropy theorem for single-mode phase-insensitive Gaussian channels, we determine capacities of quantum-limited amplifier channels in three different scenarios. First, we establish the capacities of quantum-limited amplifier channels for one of the most general communication tasks, characterized by the trade-off between classical communication, quantum communication, and entanglement generation or consumption. Second, we establish capacities of quantum-limited amplifier channels for the trade-off between public classical communication, private classical communication, and secret key generation. Third, we determine the capacity region for a broadcast channel induced by the quantum-limited amplifier channel, and we also show that a fully quantum strategy outperforms those achieved by classical coherent-detection strategies. In all three scenarios, we find that the capacities significantly outperform communication rates achieved with a naive time-sharing strategy.

Nonstandard neutrino interactions in supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stapleford, Charles J.; Väänänen, Daavid J.; Kneller, James P.; McLaughlin, Gail C.; Shapiro, Brandon T.

2016-11-01

Nonstandard interactions (NSI) of neutrinos with matter can significantly alter neutrino flavor evolution in supernovae with the potential to impact explosion dynamics, nucleosynthesis, and the neutrinos signal. In this paper, we explore, both numerically and analytically, the landscape of neutrino flavor transformation effects in supernovae due to NSI and find a new, heretofore unseen transformation processes can occur. These new transformations can take place with NSI strengths well below current experimental limits. Within a broad swath of NSI parameter space, we observe symmetric and standard matter-neutrino resonances for supernovae neutrinos, a transformation effect previously only seen in compact object merger scenarios; in another region of the parameter space we find the NSI can induce neutrino collective effects in scenarios where none would appear with only the standard case of neutrino oscillation physics; and in a third region the NSI can lead to the disappearance of the high density Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein resonance. Using a variety of analytical tools, we are able to describe quantitatively the numerical results allowing us to partition the NSI parameter according to the transformation processes observed. Our results indicate nonstandard interactions of supernova neutrinos provide a sensitive probe of beyond the Standard Model physics complementary to present and future terrestrial experiments.

Functional resilience of microbial ecosystems in soil: How important is a spatial analysis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

König, Sara; Banitz, Thomas; Centler, Florian; Frank, Karin; Thullner, Martin

2015-04-01

Microbial life in soil is exposed to fluctuating environmental conditions influencing the performance of microbially mediated ecosystem services such as biodegradation of contaminants. However, as this environment is typically very heterogeneous, spatial aspects can be expected to play a major role for the ability to recover from a stress event. To determine key processes for functional resilience, simple scenarios with varying stress intensities were simulated within a microbial simulation model and the biodegradation rate in the recovery phase monitored. Parameters including microbial growth and dispersal rates were varied over a typical range to consider microorganisms with varying properties. Besides an aggregated temporal monitoring, the explicit observation of the spatio-temporal dynamics proved essential to understand the recovery process. For a mechanistic understanding of the model system, scenarios were also simulated with selected processes being switched-off. Results of the mechanistic and the spatial view show that the key factors for functional recovery with respect to biodegradation after a simple stress event depend on the location of the observed habitats. The limiting factors near unstressed areas are spatial processes - the mobility of the bacteria as well as substrate diffusion - the longer the distance to the unstressed region the more important becomes the process growth. Furthermore, recovery depends on the stress intensity - after a low stress event the spatial configuration has no influence on the key factors for functional resilience. To confirm these results, we repeated the stress scenarios but this time including an additional dispersal network representing a fungal network in soil. The system benefits from an increased spatial performance due to the higher mobility of the degrading microorganisms. However, this effect appears only in scenarios where the spatial distribution of the stressed area plays a role. With these simulations we show that spatial aspects play a main role for recovering after a severe stress event in a highly heterogeneous environment such as soil, and thus the relevance of the exact distribution of the stressed area. In consequence a spatial-mechanistic view is necessary for examining the functional resilience as the aggregated temporal view alone could not have led to these conclusions. Further research should explore the importance of a spatial view for quantifying the recovery of the ecosystem service also after more complex stress regimes.

Modeling socio-cultural processes in network-centric environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Eunice E.; Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Korah, John; George, Riya; Gu, Qi; Kim, Keumjoo; Li, Deqing; Russell, Jacob; Subramanian, Suresh

2012-05-01

The major focus in the field of modeling & simulation for network centric environments has been on the physical layer while making simplifications for the human-in-the-loop. However, the human element has a big impact on the capabilities of network centric systems. Taking into account the socio-behavioral aspects of processes such as team building, group decision-making, etc. are critical to realistically modeling and analyzing system performance. Modeling socio-cultural processes is a challenge because of the complexity of the networks, dynamism in the physical and social layers, feedback loops and uncertainty in the modeling data. We propose an overarching framework to represent, model and analyze various socio-cultural processes within network centric environments. The key innovation in our methodology is to simultaneously model the dynamism in both the physical and social layers while providing functional mappings between them. We represent socio-cultural information such as friendships, professional relationships and temperament by leveraging the Culturally Infused Social Network (CISN) framework. The notion of intent is used to relate the underlying socio-cultural factors to observed behavior. We will model intent using Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs), a probabilistic reasoning network, which can represent incomplete and uncertain socio-cultural information. We will leverage previous work on a network performance modeling framework called Network-Centric Operations Performance and Prediction (N-COPP) to incorporate dynamism in various aspects of the physical layer such as node mobility, transmission parameters, etc. We validate our framework by simulating a suitable scenario, incorporating relevant factors and providing analyses of the results.

Modeling dynamics of western juniper under climate change in a semiarid ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, R.; Glenn, N. F.; Flores, A. N.

2013-12-01

Modeling future vegetation dynamics in response to climate change and disturbances such as fire relies heavily on model parameterization. Fine-scale field-based measurements can provide the necessary parameters for constraining models at a larger scale. But the time- and labor-intensive nature of field-based data collection leads to sparse sampling and significant spatial uncertainties in retrieved parameters. In this study we quantify the fine-scale carbon dynamics and uncertainty of juniper woodland in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in southern Idaho, which is a proposed critical zone observatory (CZO) site for soil carbon processes. We leverage field-measured vegetation data along with airborne lidar and timeseries Landsat imagery to initialize a state-and-transition model (VDDT) and a process-based fire-model (FlamMap) to examine the vegetation dynamics in response to stochastic fire events and climate change. We utilize recently developed and novel techniques to measure biomass and canopy characteristics of western juniper at the individual tree scale using terrestrial and airborne laser scanning techniques in RCEW. These fine-scale data are upscaled across the watershed for the VDDT and FlamMap models. The results will immediately improve our understanding of fine-scale dynamics and carbon stocks and fluxes of woody vegetation in a semi-arid ecosystem. Moreover, quantification of uncertainty will also provide a basis for generating ensembles of spatially-explicit alternative scenarios to guide future land management decisions in the region.

Einstein@Home DISCOVERY OF A PALFA MILLISECOND PULSAR IN AN ECCENTRIC BINARY ORBIT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Knispel, B.; Allen, B.; Lyne, A. G.

2015-06-10

We report the discovery of the millisecond pulsar (MSP) PSR J1950+2414 (P = 4.3 ms) in a binary system with an eccentric (e = 0.08) 22 day orbit in Pulsar Arecibo L-band Feed Array survey observations with the Arecibo telescope. Its companion star has a median mass of 0.3 M{sub ⊙} and is most likely a white dwarf (WD). Fully recycled MSPs like this one are thought to be old neutron stars spun-up by mass transfer from a companion star. This process should circularize the orbit, as is observed for the vast majority of binary MSPs, which predominantly have orbitalmore » eccentricities e < 0.001. However, four recently discovered binary MSPs have orbits with 0. 027 < e < 0.44; PSR J1950+2414 is the fifth such system to be discovered. The upper limits for its intrinsic spin period derivative and inferred surface magnetic field strength are comparable to those of the general MSP population. The large eccentricities are incompatible with the predictions of the standard recycling scenario: something unusual happened during their evolution. Proposed scenarios are (a) initial evolution of the pulsar in a triple system which became dynamically unstable, (b) origin in an exchange encounter in an environment with high stellar density, (c) rotationally delayed accretion-induced collapse of a super-Chandrasekhar WD, and (d) dynamical interaction of the binary with a circumbinary disk. We compare the properties of all five known eccentric MSPs with the predictions of these formation channels. Future measurements of the masses and proper motion might allow us to firmly exclude some of the proposed formation scenarios.« less

Dynamic Rainfall Patterns and the Simulation of Changing Scenarios: A behavioral watershed response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, M.; Guzman, J.; Steiner, J. L.; Hou, C.; Moriasi, D.

2015-12-01

Rainfall is one of the fundamental drivers that control hydrologic responses including runoff production and transport phenomena that consequently drive changes in aquatic ecosystems. Quantifying the hydrologic responses to changing scenarios (e.g., climate, land use, and management) using environmental models requires a realistic representation of probable rainfall in its most sensible spatio-temporal dimensions matching that of the phenomenon under investigation. Downscaling projected rainfall from global circulation models (GCMs) is the most common practice in deriving rainfall datasets to be used as main inputs to hydrologic models which in turn are used to assess the impacts of climate changes on ecosystems. Downscaling assumes that local climate is a combination of large-scale climatic/atmospheric conditions and local conditions. However, the representation of the latter is generally beyond the capacity of current GCMs. The main objective of this study was to develop and implement a synthetic rainfall generator to downscale expected rainfall trends to 1 x 1 km rainfall daily patterns that mimic the dynamic propagation of probability distribution functions (pdf) derived from historic rainfall data (rain-gauge or radar estimated). Future projections were determined based on actual and expected changes in the pdf and stochastic processes to account for variability. Watershed responses in terms of streamflow and nutrients loads were evaluated using synthetically generated rainfall patterns and actual data. The framework developed in this study will allow practitioners to generate rainfall datasets that mimic the temporal and spatial patterns exclusive to their study area under full disclosure of the uncertainties involved. This is expected to provide significantly more accurate environmental models than is currently available and would provide practitioners with ways to evaluate the spectrum of systemic responses to changing scenarios.

A globally nonsingular quaternion-based formulation for all-electric satellite trajectory optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libraro, Paola

The general electric propulsion orbit-raising maneuver of a spacecraft must contend with four main limiting factors: the longer time of flight, multiple eclipses prohibiting continuous thrusting, long exposure to radiation from the Van Allen belt and high power requirement of the electric engines. In order to optimize a low-thrust transfer with respect to these challenges, the choice of coordinates and corresponding equations of motion used to describe the kinematical and dynamical behavior of the satellite is of critical importance. This choice can potentially affect the numerical optimization process as well as limit the set of mission scenarios that can be investigated. To increase the ability to determine the feasible set of mission scenarios able to address the challenges of an all-electric orbit-raising, a set of equations free of any singularities is required to consider a completely arbitrary injection orbit. For this purpose a new quaternion-based formulation of a spacecraft translational dynamics that is globally nonsingular has been developed. The minimum-time low-thrust problem has been solved using the new set of equations of motion inside a direct optimization scheme in order to investigate optimal low-thrust trajectories over the full range of injection orbit inclinations between 0 and 90 degrees with particular focus on high-inclinations. The numerical results consider a specific mission scenario in order to analyze three key aspects of the problem: the effect of the initial guess on the shape and duration of the transfer, the effect of Earth oblateness on transfer time and the role played by, radiation damage and power degradation in all-electric minimum-time transfers. Finally trade-offs between mass and cost savings are introduced through a test case.

Computational fluid dynamics modeling of transport and deposition of pesticides in an aircraft cabin

PubMed Central

Isukapalli, Sastry S.; Mazumdar, Sagnik; George, Pradeep; Wei, Binnian; Jones, Byron; Weisel, Clifford P.

2015-01-01

Spraying of pesticides in aircraft cabins is required by some countries as part of a disinsection process to kill insects that pose a public health threat. However, public health concerns remain regarding exposures of cabin crew and passengers to pesticides in aircraft cabins. While large scale field measurements of pesticide residues and air concentrations in aircraft cabins scenarios are expensive and time consuming, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models provide an effective alternative for characterizing concentration distributions and exposures. This study involved CFD modeling of a twin-aisle 11 row cabin mockup with heated manikins, mimicking a part of a fully occupied Boeing 767 cabin. The model was applied to study the flow and deposition of pesticides under representative scenarios with different spraying patterns (sideways and overhead) and cabin air exchange rates (low and high). Corresponding spraying experiments were conducted in the cabin mockup, and pesticide deposition samples were collected at the manikin’s lap and seat top for a limited set of five seats. The CFD model performed well for scenarios corresponding to high air exchange rates, captured the concentration profiles for middle seats under low air exchange rates, and underestimated the concentrations at window seats under low air exchange rates. Additionally, both the CFD and experimental measurements showed no major variation in deposition characteristics between sideways and overhead spraying. The CFD model can estimate concentration fields and deposition profiles at very high resolutions, which can be used for characterizing the overall variability in air concentrations and surface loadings. Additionally, these model results can also provide a realistic range of surface and air concentrations of pesticides in the cabin that can be used to estimate potential exposures of cabin crew and passengers to these pesticides. PMID:25642134

A Dynamic Risk Model for Evaluation of Space Shuttle Abort Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henderson, Edward M.; Maggio, Gaspare; Elrada, Hassan A.; Yazdpour, Sabrina J.

2003-01-01

The Space Shuttle is an advanced manned launch system with a respectable history of service and a demonstrated level of safety. Recent studies have shown that the Space Shuttle has a relatively low probability of having a failure that is instantaneously catastrophic during nominal flight as compared with many US and international launch systems. However, since the Space Shuttle is a manned. system, a number of mission abort contingencies exist to primarily ensure the safety of the crew during off-nominal situations and to attempt to maintain the integrity of the Orbiter. As the Space Shuttle ascends to orbit it transverses various intact abort regions evaluated and planned before the flight to ensure that the Space Shuttle Orbiter, along with its crew, may be returned intact either to the original launch site, a transoceanic landing site, or returned from a substandard orbit. An intact abort may be initiated due to a number of system failures but the highest likelihood and most challenging abort scenarios are initiated by a premature shutdown of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The potential consequences of such a shutdown vary as a function of a number of mission parameters but all of them may be related to mission time for a specific mission profile. This paper focuses on the Dynamic Abort Risk Evaluation (DARE) model process, applications, and its capability to evaluate the risk of Loss Of Vehicle (LOV) due to the complex systems interactions that occur during Space Shuttle intact abort scenarios. In addition, the paper will examine which of the Space Shuttle subsystems are critical to ensuring a successful return of the Space Shuttle Orbiter and crew from such a situation.

Windsock memory COnditioned RAM (CO-RAM) pressure effect: Forced reconnection in the Earth's magnetotail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vörös, Z.; Facskó, G.; Khodachenko, M.; Honkonen, I.; Janhunen, P.; Palmroth, M.

2014-08-01

Magnetic reconnection (MR) is a key physical concept explaining the addition of magnetic flux to the magnetotail and closed flux lines back-motion to the dayside magnetosphere. This scenario elaborated by Dungey (1963) can explain many aspects of solar wind-magnetosphere interaction processes, including substorms. However, neither the Dungey model nor its numerous modifications were able to explain fully the onset conditions for MR in the tail. In this paper, we introduce new onset conditions for forced MR in the tail. We call our scenario the "windsock memory conditioned ram pressure effect." Our nonflux transfer-associated forcing is introduced by a combination of the large-scale windsock motions exhibiting memory effects and solar wind dynamic pressure actions on the nightside magnetopause during northward oriented interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Using global MHD Grand Unified Magnetosphere Ionosphere Coupling Simulation version 4 simulation results, upstream data from Wind, magnetosheath data from Cluster 1 and distant tail data from the two-probe Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence and Electrodynamics of the Moon's Interaction with the Sun mission, we show that the simultaneous occurrence of vertical windsock motions of the magnetotail and enhanced solar wind dynamic pressure introduces strong nightside disturbances, including enhanced electric fields and persistent vertical cross-tail shear flows. These perturbations, associated with a stream interaction region in the solar wind, drive MR in the tail during episodes of northward oriented interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We detect MR indirectly, observing plasmoids in the tail and ground-based signatures of earthward moving fast flows. We also consider the application to solar system planets and close-in exoplanets, where the proposed scenario can elucidate some new aspects of solar/stellar wind-magnetosphere interactions.

Dynamical trade-offs arise from antagonistic coevolution and decrease intraspecific diversity.

PubMed

Huang, Weini; Traulsen, Arne; Werner, Benjamin; Hiltunen, Teppo; Becks, Lutz

2017-12-12

Trade-offs play an important role in evolution. Without trade-offs, evolution would maximize fitness of all traits leading to a "master of all traits". The shape of trade-offs has been shown to determine evolutionary trajectories and is often assumed to be static and independent of the actual evolutionary process. Here we propose that coevolution leads to a dynamical trade-off. We test this hypothesis in a microbial predator-prey system and show that the bacterial growth-defense trade-off changes from concave to convex, i.e., defense is effective and cheap initially, but gets costly when predators coevolve. We further explore the impact of such dynamical trade-offs by a novel mathematical model incorporating de novo mutations for both species. Predator and prey populations diversify rapidly leading to higher prey diversity when the trade-off is concave (cheap). Coevolution results in more convex (costly) trade-offs and lower prey diversity compared to the scenario where only the prey evolves.

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

2008-10-23

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.

Towards a physical understanding of stratospheric cooling under global warming through a process-based decomposition method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Ren, R.-C.; Cai, Ming

2016-12-01

The stratosphere has been cooling under global warming, the causes of which are not yet well understood. This study applied a process-based decomposition method (CFRAM; Coupled Surface-Atmosphere Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method) to the simulation results of a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) model (CCSM4; Community Climate System Model, version 4), to demonstrate the responsible radiative and non-radiative processes involved in the stratospheric cooling. By focusing on the long-term stratospheric temperature changes between the "historical run" and the 8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario, this study demonstrates that the changes of radiative radiation due to CO2, ozone and water vapor are the main divers of stratospheric cooling in both winter and summer. They contribute to the cooling changes by reducing the net radiative energy (mainly downward radiation) received by the stratospheric layer. In terms of the global average, their contributions are around -5, -1.5, and -1 K, respectively. However, the observed stratospheric cooling is much weaker than the cooling by radiative processes. It is because changes in atmospheric dynamic processes act to strongly mitigate the radiative cooling by yielding a roughly 4 K warming on the global average base. In particular, the much stronger/weaker dynamic warming in the northern/southern winter extratropics is associated with an increase of the planetary-wave activity in the northern winter, but a slight decrease in the southern winter hemisphere, under global warming. More importantly, although radiative processes dominate the stratospheric cooling, the spatial patterns are largely determined by the non-radiative effects of dynamic processes.

Evaluating the Effects of Land Use Planning for Non-Point Source Pollution Based on a System Dynamics Approach in China

PubMed Central

Kuai, Peng; Li, Wei; Liu, Nianfeng

2015-01-01

Urbanization is proceeding rapidly in several developing countries such as China. This accelerating urbanization alters the existing land use types in a way that results in more Non-Point Source (NPS) pollution to local surface waters. Reasonable land use planning is necessary. This paper compares seven planning scenarios of a case study area, namely Wulijie, China, from the perspective of NPS pollution. A System Dynamics (SD) model was built for the comparison to adequately capture the planning complexity. These planning scenarios, which were developed by combining different land use intensities (LUIs) and construction speeds (CSs), were then simulated. The results show that compared to scenario S1 (business as usual) all other scenarios will introduce more NPS pollution (with an incremental rate of 22%-70%) to Wulijie. Scenario S6 was selected as the best because it induced relatively less NPS pollution while simultaneously maintaining a considerable development rate. Although LUIs represent a more critical factor compared to CSs, we conclude that both LUIs and CSs need to be taken into account to make the planning more environmentally friendly. Considering the power of SD in decision support, it is recommended that land use planning should take into consideration findings acquired from SD simulations. PMID:26267482

Investigation of Turbulent Entrainment-Mixing Processes With a New Particle-Resolved Direct Numerical Simulation Model

DOE PAGES

Gao, Zheng; Liu, Yangang; Li, Xiaolin; ...

2018-02-19

Here, a new particle-resolved three dimensional direct numerical simulation (DNS) model is developed that combines Lagrangian droplet tracking with the Eulerian field representation of turbulence near the Kolmogorov microscale. Six numerical experiments are performed to investigate the processes of entrainment of clear air and subsequent mixing with cloudy air and their interactions with cloud microphysics. The experiments are designed to represent different combinations of three configurations of initial cloudy area and two turbulence modes (decaying and forced turbulence). Five existing measures of microphysical homogeneous mixing degree are examined, modified, and compared in terms of their ability as a unifying measuremore » to represent the effect of various entrainment-mixing mechanisms on cloud microphysics. Also examined and compared are the conventional Damköhler number and transition scale number as a dynamical measure of different mixing mechanisms. Relationships between the various microphysical measures and dynamical measures are investigated in search for a unified parameterization of entrainment-mixing processes. The results show that even with the same cloud water fraction, the thermodynamic and microphysical properties are different, especially for the decaying cases. Further analysis confirms that despite the detailed differences in cloud properties among the six simulation scenarios, the variety of turbulent entrainment-mixing mechanisms can be reasonably represented with power-law relationships between the microphysical homogeneous mixing degrees and the dynamical measures.« less

Investigation of Turbulent Entrainment-Mixing Processes With a New Particle-Resolved Direct Numerical Simulation Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Zheng; Liu, Yangang; Li, Xiaolin

Here, a new particle-resolved three dimensional direct numerical simulation (DNS) model is developed that combines Lagrangian droplet tracking with the Eulerian field representation of turbulence near the Kolmogorov microscale. Six numerical experiments are performed to investigate the processes of entrainment of clear air and subsequent mixing with cloudy air and their interactions with cloud microphysics. The experiments are designed to represent different combinations of three configurations of initial cloudy area and two turbulence modes (decaying and forced turbulence). Five existing measures of microphysical homogeneous mixing degree are examined, modified, and compared in terms of their ability as a unifying measuremore » to represent the effect of various entrainment-mixing mechanisms on cloud microphysics. Also examined and compared are the conventional Damköhler number and transition scale number as a dynamical measure of different mixing mechanisms. Relationships between the various microphysical measures and dynamical measures are investigated in search for a unified parameterization of entrainment-mixing processes. The results show that even with the same cloud water fraction, the thermodynamic and microphysical properties are different, especially for the decaying cases. Further analysis confirms that despite the detailed differences in cloud properties among the six simulation scenarios, the variety of turbulent entrainment-mixing mechanisms can be reasonably represented with power-law relationships between the microphysical homogeneous mixing degrees and the dynamical measures.« less

Non-singular Brans-Dicke collapse in deformed phase space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasouli, S. M. M.; Ziaie, A. H.; Jalalzadeh, S.; Moniz, P. V.

2016-12-01

We study the collapse process of a homogeneous perfect fluid (in FLRW background) with a barotropic equation of state in Brans-Dicke (BD) theory in the presence of phase space deformation effects. Such a deformation is introduced as a particular type of non-commutativity between phase space coordinates. For the commutative case, it has been shown in the literature (Scheel, 1995), that the dust collapse in BD theory leads to the formation of a spacetime singularity which is covered by an event horizon. In comparison to general relativity (GR), the authors concluded that the final state of black holes in BD theory is identical to the GR case but differs from GR during the dynamical evolution of the collapse process. However, the presence of non-commutative effects influences the dynamics of the collapse scenario and consequently a non-singular evolution is developed in the sense that a bounce emerges at a minimum radius, after which an expanding phase begins. Such a behavior is observed for positive values of the BD coupling parameter. For large positive values of the BD coupling parameter, when non-commutative effects are present, the dynamics of collapse process differs from the GR case. Finally, we show that for negative values of the BD coupling parameter, the singularity is replaced by an oscillatory bounce occurring at a finite time, with the frequency of oscillation and amplitude being damped at late times.

The presence of a phantom field in a Randall–Sundrum scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acuña-Cárdenas, Rubén O.; Astorga-Moreno, J. A.; García-Aspeitia, Miguel A.; López-Domínguez, J. C.

2018-02-01

The presence of phantom dark energy in brane world cosmology generates important new effects, causing a premature big rip singularity when we increase the presence of extra dimensions and considerably competing with the other components of our Universe. This article first considers only a field with the characteristic equation ω<-1 and then the explicit form of the scalar field with a potential with a maximum (with the aim of avoiding a big rip singularity). In both cases we study the dynamics robustly through dynamical analysis theory, considering in detail parameters such as the deceleration q and the vector field associated to the dynamical system. Results are discussed with the purpose of treating the cosmology with a phantom field as dark energy in a Randall–Sundrum scenario.

Mott physics beyond the Brinkman-Rice scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wysokiński, Marcin M.; Fabrizio, Michele

2017-04-01

The main flaw of the well-known Brinkman-Rice description, obtained through the Gutzwiller approximation, of the paramagnetic Mott transition in the Hubbard model is in neglecting high-energy virtual processes that generate, for instance, the antiferromagnetic exchange J ˜t2/U . Here, we propose a way to capture those processes by combining the Brinkman-Rice approach with a variational Schrieffer-Wolff transformation, and apply this method to study the single-band metal-to-insulator transition in a Bethe lattice with infinite coordination number, where the Gutzwiller approximation becomes exact. We indeed find for the Mott transition a description very close to the real one provided by the dynamical mean-field theory, an encouraging result in view of possible applications to more involved models.

Characterization of Space Shuttle Ascent Debris Aerodynamics Using CFD Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murman, Scott M.; Aftosmis, Michael J.; Rogers, Stuart E.

2005-01-01

An automated Computational Fluid Dynamics process for determining the aerodynamic Characteristics of debris shedding from the Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle during ascent is presented. This process uses Cartesian fully-coupled, six-degree-of-freedom simulations of isolated debris pieces in a Monte Carlo fashion to produce models for the drag and crossrange behavior over a range of debris shapes and shedding scenarios. A validation of the Cartesian methods against ballistic range data for insulating foam debris shapes at flight conditions, as well as validation of the resulting models, are both contained. These models are integrated with the existing shuttle debris transport analysis software to provide an accurate and efficient engineering tool for analyzing debris sources and their potential for damage.

Laser-induced breakup of helium 3S 1s2s with intermediate doubly excited states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simonsen, A. S.; Bachau, H.; Førre, M.

2014-02-01

Solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation in full dimensionality for two electrons, it is found that in the XUV regime the two-photon double ionization dynamics of He(1s2s) is predominantly dictated by the process of resonance enhanced multiphoton ionization via doubly excited states (DESs). We have studied a pump-probe scenario where the full laser-driven breakup of the 3S 1s2s metastable state is dominated by intermediate quasiresonant excitation to doubly excited (autoionizing) states in the 3Po series. Clear evidence of multipath interference effects is revealed in the resulting angular distributions of the ejected electrons in cases where more than one intermediate DES is populated in the process.

Turnover of Village Chickens Undermines Vaccine Coverage to Control HPAI H5N1.

PubMed

Villanueva-Cabezas, J P; Campbell, P T; McCaw, J M; Durr, P A; McVernon, J

2017-02-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 remains an enzootic disease of village chickens in Indonesia, posing ongoing risk at the animal-human interface. Previous modelling showed that the fast natural turnover of chicken populations might undermine herd immunity after vaccination, although actual details of how this effect applies to Indonesia's village chicken population have not been determined. We explored the turnover effect in Indonesia's scavenging and mixed populations of village chickens using an extended Leslie matrix model parameterized with data collected from village chicken flocks in Java region, Indonesia. Population dynamics were simulated for 208 weeks; the turnover effect was simulated for 16 weeks after vaccination in two 'best case' scenarios, where the whole population (scenario 1), or birds aged over 14 days (scenario 2), were vaccinated. We found that the scavenging and mixed populations have different productive traits. When steady-state dynamics are reached, both populations are dominated by females (54.5%), and 'growers' and 'chicks' represent the most abundant age stages with 39% and 38% in the scavenging, and 60% and 25% in the mixed population, respectively. Simulations showed that the population turnover might reduce the herd immunity below the critical threshold that prevents the re-emergence of HPAI H5N1 4-8 weeks (scavenging) and 6-9 weeks (mixed population) after vaccination in scenario 1, and 2-6 weeks (scavenging) and 4-7 weeks (mixed population) after vaccination in scenario 2. In conclusion, we found that Indonesia's village chicken population does not have a unique underlying population dynamic and therefore, different turnover effects on herd immunity may be expected after vaccination; nonetheless, our simulations carried out in best case scenarios highlight the limitations of current vaccine technologies to control HPAI H5N1. This suggests that the improvements and complementary strategies are necessary and must be explored. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Climate Change and Future U.S. Electricity Infrastructure: the Nexus between Water Availability, Land Suitability, and Low-Carbon Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, J.; Halter, T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Jensen, E.; Liu, L.; Olson, J.; Patel, P.; Vernon, C. R.; Voisin, N.; Zuljevic, N.

2014-12-01

Integrated assessment models project the future electricity generation mix under different policy, technology, and socioeconomic scenarios, but they do not directly address site-specific factors such as interconnection costs, population density, land use restrictions, air quality, NIMBY concerns, or water availability that might affect the feasibility of achieving the technology mix. Moreover, since these factors can change over time due to climate, policy, socioeconomics, and so on, it is important to examine the dynamic feasibility of integrated assessment scenarios "on the ground." This paper explores insights from coupling an integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA) with a geospatial power plant siting model (the Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility model, CERF) within a larger multi-model framework that includes regional climate, hydrologic, and water management modeling. GCAM-USA is a dynamic-recursive market equilibrium model simulating the impact of carbon policies on global and national markets for energy commodities and other goods; one of its outputs is the electricity generation mix and expansion at the state-level. It also simulates water demands from all sectors that are downscaled as input to the water management modeling. CERF simulates siting decisions by dynamically representing suitable areas for different generation technologies with geospatial analyses (informed by technology-specific siting criteria, such as required mean streamflow per the Clean Water Act), and then choosing siting locations to minimize interconnection costs (to electric transmission and gas pipelines). CERF results are compared across three scenarios simulated by GCAM-USA: 1) a non-mitigation scenario (RCP8.5) in which conventional fossil-fueled technologies prevail, 2) a mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) in which the carbon price causes a shift toward nuclear, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and renewables, and 3) a repeat of scenario (2) in which CCS technologies are made unavailable—resulting in a large increase in the nuclear fraction of the mix.

The Creation of Haumea's Collisional Family

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlichting, Hilke E.; Sari, Re'em

2009-08-01

Recently, the first collisional family was discovered in the Kuiper Belt. The parent body of this family, Haumea, is one of the largest objects in the Kuiper Belt and is orbited by two satellites. It has been proposed that the Haumea family was created from dispersed fragments that resulted from a giant impact. This proposed origin of the Haumea family is however in conflict with the observed velocity dispersion between the family members (~ 140 m s-1) which is significantly less than the escape velocity from Haumea's surface (~ 900 m s-1). In this paper we propose a different formation scenario for Haumea's collisional family. In our scenario the family members are ejected while in orbit around Haumea. This scenario, therefore, naturally gives rise to a lower velocity dispersion among the family members than expected from direct ejection from Haumea's surface. In our scenario Haumea's giant impact forms a single moon that tidally evolves outward until it suffers a destructive collision from which the family is created. We show that this formation scenario yields a velocity dispersion of ~ 190 m s-1 among the family members which is in good agreement with the observations. We discuss an alternative scenario that consists of the formation and tidal evolution of several satellites that are ejected by collisions with unbound Kuiper Belt objects. However, the formation of the Haumea family in this latter way is difficult to reconcile with the large abundance of Kuiper Belt binaries. We, therefore, favor forming the family by a destructive collision of a single moon of Haumea. The probability for Haumea's initial giant impact in today's Kuiper Belt is less than 10-3. In our scenario, however, Haumea's giant impact can occur before the excitation of the Kuiper Belt and the ejection of the family members afterward. This has the advantage that one can preserve the dynamical coherence of the family and explain Haumea's original giant impact, which is several orders of magnitude more likely to have occurred in the primordial dynamically cold Kuiper Belt compared to the dynamically excited Kuiper Belt today.

Using STELLA System Dynamic Model to Analyze Greenhouse Gases' Emission From Solid Waste Management in Taiwan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Horng, Jao-Jia; Lee, R.F.; Liao, K.Y.

2004-03-31

Using a system dynamic model (SDM), such as STELLA, to analyze the waste management policy is a new trial for Taiwan's research communities. We have developed an easy and relatively accurate model for analyzing the greenhouse gases emission for the wastes from animal farming and municipalities. With the local research data of the past decade, we extract the most prominent factors and assemble the SDM. The results and scenarios were compared with the national inventory. By comparing to the past data, we found these models reasonably represent the situation in Taiwan. However, SDM can program many scenarios and produce amore » lot of prediction data. With the development of many program control tools on STELLA, we believe the models could be further used by researchers or policy-makers to find the needed research topics, to set the future scenarios and to determine the management tools.« less

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

Ethanol distribution, dispensing, and use: analysis of a portion of the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain using system dynamics.

PubMed

Vimmerstedt, Laura J; Bush, Brian; Peterson, Steve

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 targets use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. Achieving this may require substantial changes to current transportation fuel systems for distribution, dispensing, and use in vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory designed a system dynamics approach to help focus government action by determining what supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate biofuels deployment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model which represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain. The model provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis. This paper focuses on the downstream portion of the supply chain-represented in the distribution logistics, dispensing station, and fuel utilization, and vehicle modules of the Biomass Scenario Model. This model initially focused on ethanol, but has since been expanded to include other biofuels. Some portions of this system are represented dynamically with major interactions and feedbacks, especially those related to a dispensing station owner's decision whether to offer ethanol fuel and a consumer's choice whether to purchase that fuel. Other portions of the system are modeled with little or no dynamics; the vehicle choices of consumers are represented as discrete scenarios. This paper explores conditions needed to sustain an ethanol fuel market and identifies implications of these findings for program and policy goals. A large, economically sustainable ethanol fuel market (or other biofuel market) requires low end-user fuel price relative to gasoline and sufficient producer payment, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Other requirements (different for ethanol vs. other biofuel markets) include the need for infrastructure for distribution and dispensing and widespread use of high ethanol blends in flexible-fuel vehicles.

Ethanol Distribution, Dispensing, and Use: Analysis of a Portion of the Biomass-to-Biofuels Supply Chain Using System Dynamics

PubMed Central

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Bush, Brian; Peterson, Steve

2012-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 targets use of 36 billion gallons of biofuels per year by 2022. Achieving this may require substantial changes to current transportation fuel systems for distribution, dispensing, and use in vehicles. The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory designed a system dynamics approach to help focus government action by determining what supply chain changes would have the greatest potential to accelerate biofuels deployment. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the Biomass Scenario Model, a system dynamics model which represents the primary system effects and dependencies in the biomass-to-biofuels supply chain. The model provides a framework for developing scenarios and conducting biofuels policy analysis. This paper focuses on the downstream portion of the supply chain–represented in the distribution logistics, dispensing station, and fuel utilization, and vehicle modules of the Biomass Scenario Model. This model initially focused on ethanol, but has since been expanded to include other biofuels. Some portions of this system are represented dynamically with major interactions and feedbacks, especially those related to a dispensing station owner’s decision whether to offer ethanol fuel and a consumer’s choice whether to purchase that fuel. Other portions of the system are modeled with little or no dynamics; the vehicle choices of consumers are represented as discrete scenarios. This paper explores conditions needed to sustain an ethanol fuel market and identifies implications of these findings for program and policy goals. A large, economically sustainable ethanol fuel market (or other biofuel market) requires low end-user fuel price relative to gasoline and sufficient producer payment, which are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Other requirements (different for ethanol vs. other biofuel markets) include the need for infrastructure for distribution and dispensing and widespread use of high ethanol blends in flexible-fuel vehicles. PMID:22606230

Simulating Society Transitions: Standstill, Collapse and Growth in an Evolving Network Model

PubMed Central

Xu, Guanghua; Yang, Junjie; Li, Guoqing

2013-01-01

We developed a model society composed of various occupations that interact with each other and the environment, with the capability of simulating three widely recognized societal transition patterns: standstill, collapse and growth, which are important compositions of society evolving dynamics. Each occupation is equipped with a number of inhabitants that may randomly flow to other occupations, during which process new occupations may be created and then interact with existing ones. Total population of society is associated with productivity, which is determined by the structure and volume of the society. We ran the model under scenarios such as parasitism, environment fluctuation and invasion, which correspond to different driving forces of societal transition, and obtained reasonable simulation results. This work adds to our understanding of societal evolving dynamics as well as provides theoretical clues to sustainable development. PMID:24086530

Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

[Responses of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China to climate change and elevated CO2: a simulation based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data].

PubMed

He, Jun-Jie; Peng, Xing-Yuan; Chen, Zhen-Ju; Cui, Ming-Xing; Zhang, Xian-Liang; Zhou, Chang-Hong

2012-07-01

Based on BIOME-BGC model and tree-ring data, a modeling study was conducted to estimate the dynamic changes of the net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabulaeformis forest ecosystem in North China in 1952-2008, and explore the responses of the radial growth and NPP to regional climate warming as well as the dynamics of the NPP in the future climate change scenarios. The simulation results indicated the annual NPP of the P. tabulaeformis ecosystem in 1952-2008 fluctuated from 244.12 to 645.31 g C x m(-2) x a(-1), with a mean value of 418.6 g C x m(-2) x a(-1) The mean air temperature in May-June and the precipitation from previous August to current July were the main factors limiting the radial growth of P. tabulaeformis and the NPP of P. tabulaeformis ecosystem. In the study period, both the radial growth and the NPP presented a decreasing trend due to the regional warming and drying climate condition. In the future climate scenarios, the NPP would have positive responses to the increase of air temperature, precipitation, and their combination. The elevated CO2 would benefit the increase of the NPP, and the increment would be about 16.1% due to the CO2 fertilization. At both ecosystem and regional scales, the tree-ring data would be an ideal proxy to predict the ecosystem dynamic change, and could be used to validate and calibrate the process-based ecosystem models including BIOME-BGC.

How runoff begins (and ends): characterizing hydrologic response at the catchment scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Loague, Keith

2013-01-01

Improved understanding of the complex dynamics associated with spatially and temporally variable runoff response is needed to better understand the hydrology component of interdisciplinary problems. The objective of this study was to quantitatively characterize the environmental controls on runoff generation for the range of different streamflow-generation mechanisms illustrated in the classic Dunne diagram. The comprehensive physics-based model of coupled surface-subsurface flow, InHM, is employed in a heuristic mode. InHM has been employed previously to successfully simulate the observed hydrologic response at four diverse, well-characterized catchments, which provides the foundation for this study. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested terrain; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland. The InHM boundary-value problems for these four catchments provide the corner-stones for alternative simulation scenarios designed to address the question of how runoff begins (and ends). Simulated rainfall-runoff events are used to systematically explore the impact of soil-hydraulic properties and rainfall characteristics. This approach facilitates quantitative analysis of both integrated and distributed hydrologic responses at high-spatial and temporal resolution over the wide range of environmental conditions represented by the four catchments. The results from 140 unique simulation scenarios illustrate how rainfall intensity/depth, subsurface permeability contrasts, characteristic curve shapes, and topography provide important controls on the hydrologic-response dynamics. The processes by which runoff begins (and ends) are shown, in large part, to be defined by the relative rates of rainfall, infiltration, lateral flow convergence, and storage dynamics within the variably saturated soil layers.

Ecological drivers of guanaco recruitment: variable carrying capacity and density dependence.

PubMed

Marino, Andrea; Pascual, Miguel; Baldi, Ricardo

2014-08-01

Ungulates living in predator-free reserves offer the opportunity to study the influence of food limitation on population dynamics without the potentially confounding effects of top-down regulation or livestock competition. We assessed the influence of relative forage availability and population density on guanaco recruitment in two predator-free reserves in eastern Patagonia, with contrasting scenarios of population density. We also explored the relative contribution of the observed recruitment to population growth using a deterministic linear model to test the assumption that the studied populations were closed units. The observed densities increased twice as fast as our theoretical populations, indicating that marked immigration has taken place during the recovery phase experienced by both populations, thus we rejected the closed-population assumption. Regarding the factors driving variation in recruitment, in the low- to medium-density setting, we found a positive linear relationship between recruitment and surrogates of annual primary production, whereas no density dependence was detected. In contrast, in the high-density scenario, both annual primary production and population density showed marked effects, indicating a positive relationship between recruitment and per capita food availability above a food-limitation threshold. Our results support the idea that environmental carrying capacity fluctuates in response to climatic variation, and that these fluctuations have relevant consequences for herbivore dynamics, such as amplifying density dependence in drier years. We conclude that including the coupling between environmental variability in resources and density dependence is crucial to model ungulate population dynamics; to overlook temporal changes in carrying capacity may even mask density dependence as well as other important processes.

Economic Impact of NMMO Pretreatment on Ethanol and Biogas Production from Pinewood

PubMed Central

Zilouei, Hamid; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J.

2014-01-01

Processes for ethanol and biogas (scenario 1) and biomethane (scenario 2) production from pinewood improved by N-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO) pretreatment were developed and simulated by Aspen plus. These processes were compared with two processes using steam explosion instead of NMMO pretreatment ethanol (scenario 3) and biomethane (scenario 4) production, and the economies of all processes were evaluated by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Gasoline equivalent prices of the products including 25% value added tax (VAT) and selling and distribution expenses for scenarios 1 to 4 were, respectively, 1.40, 1.20, 1.24, and 1.04 €/l, which are lower than gasoline price. The profitability indexes for scenarios 1 to 4 were 1.14, 0.93, 1.16, and 0.96, respectively. Despite the lower manufacturing costs of biomethane, the profitability indexes of these processes were lower than those of the bioethanol processes, because of higher capital requirements. The results showed that taxing rule is an effective parameter on the economy of the biofuels. The gasoline equivalent prices of the biofuels were 15–37% lower than gasoline; however, 37% of the gasoline price contributes to energy and carbon dioxide tax which are not included in the prices of biofuels based on the Swedish taxation rules. PMID:25276777

Economic impact of NMMO pretreatment on ethanol and biogas production from pinewood.

PubMed

Shafiei, Marzieh; Karimi, Keikhosro; Zilouei, Hamid; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J

2014-01-01

Processes for ethanol and biogas (scenario 1) and biomethane (scenario 2) production from pinewood improved by N-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO) pretreatment were developed and simulated by Aspen plus. These processes were compared with two processes using steam explosion instead of NMMO pretreatment ethanol (scenario 3) and biomethane (scenario 4) production, and the economies of all processes were evaluated by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Gasoline equivalent prices of the products including 25% value added tax (VAT) and selling and distribution expenses for scenarios 1 to 4 were, respectively, 1.40, 1.20, 1.24, and 1.04 €/l, which are lower than gasoline price. The profitability indexes for scenarios 1 to 4 were 1.14, 0.93, 1.16, and 0.96, respectively. Despite the lower manufacturing costs of biomethane, the profitability indexes of these processes were lower than those of the bioethanol processes, because of higher capital requirements. The results showed that taxing rule is an effective parameter on the economy of the biofuels. The gasoline equivalent prices of the biofuels were 15-37% lower than gasoline; however, 37% of the gasoline price contributes to energy and carbon dioxide tax which are not included in the prices of biofuels based on the Swedish taxation rules.

Exciton localization in solution-processed organolead trihalide perovskites

PubMed Central

He, Haiping; Yu, Qianqian; Li, Hui; Li, Jing; Si, Junjie; Jin, Yizheng; Wang, Nana; Wang, Jianpu; He, Jingwen; Wang, Xinke; Zhang, Yan; Ye, Zhizhen

2016-01-01

Organolead trihalide perovskites have attracted great attention due to the stunning advances in both photovoltaic and light-emitting devices. However, the photophysical properties, especially the recombination dynamics of photogenerated carriers, of this class of materials are controversial. Here we report that under an excitation level close to the working regime of solar cells, the recombination of photogenerated carriers in solution-processed methylammonium–lead–halide films is dominated by excitons weakly localized in band tail states. This scenario is evidenced by experiments of spectral-dependent luminescence decay, excitation density-dependent luminescence and frequency-dependent terahertz photoconductivity. The exciton localization effect is found to be general for several solution-processed hybrid perovskite films prepared by different methods. Our results provide insights into the charge transport and recombination mechanism in perovskite films and help to unravel their potential for high-performance optoelectronic devices. PMID:26996605

Joint principal trend analysis for longitudinal high-dimensional data.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuping; Ouyang, Zhengqing

2018-06-01

We consider a research scenario motivated by integrating multiple sources of information for better knowledge discovery in diverse dynamic biological processes. Given two longitudinal high-dimensional datasets for a group of subjects, we want to extract shared latent trends and identify relevant features. To solve this problem, we present a new statistical method named as joint principal trend analysis (JPTA). We demonstrate the utility of JPTA through simulations and applications to gene expression data of the mammalian cell cycle and longitudinal transcriptional profiling data in response to influenza viral infections. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Dynamical thresholding of pancake models: a promising variant of the HDM picture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchert, Thomas

Variants of pancake models are considered which allow for the construction of a phenomenological link to the galaxy formation process. A control parameter space is introduced which defines different scenarios of galaxy formation. The sensibility of statistical measures of the small-scale structure with respect to this parameter freedom is demonstrated. This property of the galaxy formation model, together with the consequences of enlarging the box size of the simulation to a `fair sample scale', form the basis of arguments to support the possible revival of the standard `Hot-Dark-Matter' model.

The Scenario-Based Engineering Process (SEP): a user-centered approach for the development of health care systems.

PubMed

Harbison, K; Kelly, J; Burnell, L; Silva, J

1995-01-01

The Scenario-based Engineering Process (SEP) is a user-focused methodology for large and complex system design. This process supports new application development from requirements analysis with domain models to component selection, design and modification, implementation, integration, and archival placement. It is built upon object-oriented methodologies, domain modeling strategies, and scenario-based techniques to provide an analysis process for mapping application requirements to available components. We are using SEP in the health care applications that we are developing. The process has already achieved success in the manufacturing and military domains and is being adopted by many organizations. SEP should prove viable in any domain containing scenarios that can be decomposed into tasks.

Strong field control of predissociation dynamics.

PubMed

Corrales, María E; Balerdi, Garikoitz; Loriot, Vincent; de Nalda, Rebeca; Bañares, Luis

2013-01-01

Strong field control scenarios are investigated in the CH3I predissociation dynamics at the origin of the second absorption B-band, in which state-selective electronic predissociation occurs through the crossing with a valence dissociative state. Dynamic Stark control (DSC) and pump-dump strategies are shown capable of altering both the predissociation lifetime and the product branching ratio.

Climate simulation of the twenty-first century with interactive land-use changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voldoire, Aurore; Eickhout, Bas; Schaeffer, Michiel; Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice

2007-08-01

To include land-use dynamics in a general circulation model (GCM), the physical system has to be linked to a system that represents socio-economy. This issue is addressed by coupling an integrated assessment model, IMAGE2.2, to an ocean atmosphere GCM, CNRM-CM3. In the new system, IMAGE2.2 provides CNRM-CM3 with all the external forcings that are scenario dependent: greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentrations, sulfate aerosols charge and land cover. Conversely, the GCM gives IMAGE changes in mean temperature and precipitation. With this new system, we have run an adapted scenario of the IPCC SRES scenario family. We have chosen a single scenario with maximum land-use changes (SRES A2), to illustrate some important feedback issues. Even in this two-way coupled model set-up, land use in this scenario is mainly driven by demographic and agricultural practices, which overpowers a potential influence of climate feedbacks on land-use patterns. This suggests that for scenarios in which socio-economically driven land-use change is very large, land-use changes can be incorporated in GCM simulations as a one-way driving force, without taking into account climate feedbacks. The dynamics of natural vegetation is more closely linked to climate but the time-scale of changes is of the order of a century. Thus, the coupling between natural vegetation and climate could generate important feedbacks but these effects are relevant mainly for multi-centennial simulations.

Vortex dynamics studies in supersonic flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergine, Fabrizio

This dissertation covers the study of selected vortex interaction scenarios both in cold and high enthalpy reacting flows. Specifically, the experimental results and the analysis of the flowfields resulting from two selected supersonic vortex interaction modes in a Mach 2.5 cold flow are presented. Additionally, the experiment design, based on vortex dynamics concepts, and the reacting plume survey of two pylon injectors in a Mach 2.4 high enthalpy flow are shown. All the cold flow experiments were conducted in the supersonic wind tunnel of the Aerodynamics Research Center at the University of Texas at Arlington. A strut injector equipped with specified ramp configurations was designed and used to produce the flowfields of interest. The reacting flow experiments were conducted in the the Expansion Tube Facility located in the High Temperature Gasdynamics Laboratory of Stanford University. A detailed description of the supersonic wind tunnel, the instrumentation, the strut injector and the supersonic wake flow downstream is shown as part of the characterization of the facility. As Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry was the principal flow measurement technique used in this work to probe the streamwise vortices shed from ramps mounted on the strut, this dissertation provides a deep overview of the challenges and the application of the aforementioned technique to the survey of vortical flows. Moreover, the dissertation provides the comprehensive analysis of the mean and fluctuating velocity flowfields associated with two distinct vortex dynamics scenarios, as chosen by means of the outcomes of the simulations of a reduced order model developed in the research group. Specifically, the same streamwise vortices (strength, size and Reynolds number) were used experimentally to investigate both a case in which the resulting dynamics evolve in a vortex merging scenario and a case where the merging process is voluntarily avoided in order to focus the analysis on the fundamental differences associated with the amalgamation processes alone. The results from the mean flow highlight major differences between the two cases and will justify the use of the inviscid reduced order model used to predict the main flow physics. The analysis of the turbulence quantities based on concepts borrowed from incompressible turbulence theory explains interesting features of the fluctuating flowfields, suggesting that turbulence associated with the inspected flow conditions is essentially incompressible. Once the interactions among the vortical structures in cold flow were assessed, these vortex dynamics concepts were probed in a reacting environment. The dissertation describes the design phase of two pylon injectors based on the prediction capabilities of the aforementioned model. Then, the results of a set of combustion experiments conducted utilizing hydrogen fuel injected into Mach 2.4, high-enthalpy (2.8˜MJ/kg) air flow are discussed. The results show that, for the heat release levels considered in this study, the morphology of the plume and its evolution is very similar to the results produced by the code, enabling an interpretation of the phenomena based on vortex dynamics considerations. The persistence of the streamwise vortical structures created by the selected ramp configurations is shown together with the effectiveness of the coherent structures in successfully anchoring the flame very close to the injection point. The work shows the possibility of a new approach in the design of injection strategies (i.e., not limited to injection devices) suitable for adoption in scramjet combustors based on the ability to predict, with basic vortex dynamics concepts and a highly reduced computational cost, the main features of flows of technological interest.

Competitive assessment of aerospace systems using system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfaender, Jens Holger

Aircraft design has recently experienced a trend away from performance centric design towards a more balanced approach with increased emphasis on engineering an economically successful system. This approach focuses on bringing forward a comprehensive economic and life-cycle cost analysis. Since the success of any system also depends on many external factors outside of the control of the designer, this traditionally has been modeled as noise affecting the uncertainty of the design. However, this approach is currently lacking a strategic treatment of necessary early decisions affecting the probability of success of a given concept in a dynamic environment. This suggests that the introduction of a dynamic method into a life-cycle cost analysis should allow the analysis of the future attractiveness of such a concept in the presence of uncertainty. One way of addressing this is through the use of a competitive market model. However, existing market models do not focus on the dynamics of the market. Instead, they focus on modeling and predicting market share through logit regression models. The resulting models exhibit relatively poor predictive capabilities. The method proposed here focuses on a top-down approach that integrates a competitive model based on work in the field of system dynamics into the aircraft design process. Demonstrating such integration is one of the primary contributions of this work, which previously has not been demonstrated. This integration is achieved through the use of surrogate models, in this case neural networks. This enabled not only the practical integration of analysis techniques, but also reduced the computational requirements so that interactive exploration as envisioned was actually possible. The example demonstration of this integration is built on the competition in the 250 seat large commercial aircraft market exemplified by the Boeing 767-400ER and the Airbus A330-200. Both aircraft models were calibrated to existing performance and certification data and then integrated into the system dynamics market model. The market model was then calibrated with historical market data. This calibration showed a much improved predictive capability as compared to the conventional logit regression models. An additional advantage of this dynamic model is that to realize this improved capability, no additional explanatory variables were required. Furthermore, the resulting market model was then integrated into a prediction profiler environment with a time variant Monte-Carlo analysis resulting in a unique trade-off environment. This environment was shown to allow interactive trade-off between aircraft design decisions and economic considerations while allowing the exploration potential market success in the light of varying external market conditions and scenarios. The resulting method is capable of reduced decision support uncertainty and identification of robust design decisions in future scenarios with a high likelihood of occurrence with special focus on the path dependent nature of future implications of decisions. Furthermore, it was possible to demonstrate the increased importance of design and technology choices on the competitiveness in scenarios with drastic increases in commodity prices during the time period modeled. Another use of the existing outputs of the Monte-Carlo analysis was then realized by showing them on a multivariate scatter plot. This plot was then shown to enable by appropriate grouping of variables to enable the top down definition of an aircraft design, also known as inverse design. In other words this enables the designer to define strategic market and return on investment goals for a number of scenarios, for example the development of fuel prices, and then directly see which specific aircraft designs meet these goals.

Two-Stage Dynamics of In Vivo Bacteriophage Genome Ejection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi-Ju; Wu, David; Gelbart, William; Knobler, Charles M.; Phillips, Rob; Kegel, Willem K.

2018-04-01

Biopolymer translocation is a key step in viral infection processes. The transfer of information-encoding genomes allows viruses to reprogram the cell fate of their hosts. Constituting 96% of all known bacterial viruses [A. Fokine and M. G. Rossmann, Molecular architecture of tailed double-stranded DNA phages, Bacteriophage 4, e28281 (2014)], the tailed bacteriophages deliver their DNA into host cells via an "ejection" process, leaving their protein shells outside of the bacteria; a similar scenario occurs for mammalian viruses like herpes, where the DNA genome is ejected into the nucleus of host cells, while the viral capsid remains bound outside to a nuclear-pore complex. In light of previous experimental measurements of in vivo bacteriophage λ ejection, we analyze here the physical processes that give rise to the observed dynamics. We propose that, after an initial phase driven by self-repulsion of DNA in the capsid, the ejection is driven by anomalous diffusion of phage DNA in the crowded bacterial cytoplasm. We expect that this two-step mechanism is general for phages that operate by pressure-driven ejection, and we discuss predictions of our theory to be tested in future experiments.

Ground-motion signature of dynamic ruptures on rough faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mai, P. Martin; Galis, Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Vyas, Jagdish C.

2016-04-01

Natural earthquakes occur on faults characterized by large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness. This multi-scale geometrical complexity controls the dynamic rupture process, and hence strongly affects the radiated seismic waves and near-field shaking. For a fault system with given segmentation, the question arises what are the conditions for producing large-magnitude multi-segment ruptures, as opposed to smaller single-segment events. Similarly, for variable degrees of roughness, ruptures may be arrested prematurely or may break the entire fault. In addition, fault roughness induces rupture incoherence that determines the level of high-frequency radiation. Using HPC-enabled dynamic-rupture simulations, we generate physically self-consistent rough-fault earthquake scenarios (M~6.8) and their associated near-source seismic radiation. Because these computations are too expensive to be conducted routinely for simulation-based seismic hazard assessment, we thrive to develop an effective pseudo-dynamic source characterization that produces (almost) the same ground-motion characteristics. Therefore, we examine how variable degrees of fault roughness affect rupture properties and the seismic wavefield, and develop a planar-fault kinematic source representation that emulates the observed dynamic behaviour. We propose an effective workflow for improved pseudo-dynamic source modelling that incorporates rough-fault effects and its associated high-frequency radiation in broadband ground-motion computation for simulation-based seismic hazard assessment.

Clarification of the formation process of the super massive black hole by Infrared astrometric satellite, Small-JASMINE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yano, Taihei; JASMINE-WG

2018-04-01

Small-JASMINE (hearafter SJ), infrared astrometric satellite, will measure the positions and the proper motions which are located around the Galactic center, by operating at near infrared wave-lengths. SJ will clarify the formation process of the super massive black hole (hearafter SMBH) at the Galactic center. In particular, SJ will determine whether the SMBH was formed by a sequential merging of multiple black holes. The clarification of this formation process of the SMBH will contribute to a better understanding of merging process of satellite galaxies into the Galaxy, which is suggested by the standard galaxy formation scenario. A numerical simulation (Tanikawa and Umemura, 2014) suggests that if the SMBH was formed by the merging process, then the dynamical friction caused by the black holes have influenced the phase space distribution of stars. The phase space distribution measured by SJ will make it possible to determine the occurrences of the merging process.

Constraints on nebular dynamics and chemistry based on observations of annealed magnesium silicate grains in comets and in disks surrounding Herbig Ae/Be stars

PubMed Central

Hill, Hugh G. M.; Grady, Carol A.; Nuth, Joseph A.; Hallenbeck, Susan L.; Sitko, Michael L.

2001-01-01

Understanding dynamic conditions in the Solar Nebula is the key to prediction of the material to be found in comets. We suggest that a dynamic, large-scale circulation pattern brings processed dust and gas from the inner nebula back out into the region of cometesimal formation—extending possibly hundreds of astronomical units (AU) from the sun—and that the composition of comets is determined by a chemical reaction network closely coupled to the dynamic transport of dust and gas in the system. This scenario is supported by laboratory studies of Mg silicates and the astronomical data for comets and for protoplanetary disks associated with young stars, which demonstrate that annealing of nebular silicates must occur in conjunction with a large-scale circulation. Mass recycling of dust should have a significant effect on the chemical kinetics of the outer nebula by introducing reduced, gas-phase species produced in the higher temperature and pressure environment of the inner nebula, along with freshly processed grains with “clean” catalytic surfaces to the region of cometesimal formation. Because comets probably form throughout the lifetime of the Solar Nebula and processed (crystalline) grains are not immediately available for incorporation into the first generation of comets, an increasing fraction of dust incorporated into a growing comet should be crystalline olivine and this fraction can serve as a crude chronometer of the relative ages of comets. The formation and evolution of key organic and biogenic molecules in comets are potentially of great consequence to astrobiology. PMID:11226213

A Study of Primary Collision Dynamics in Inverse-Kinematics Reaction of 78Kr on 40Ca at a Bombarding Energy of 10 MeV per Nucleon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henry, Eric M.

The CHIMERA multi-detector array at LNS Catania has been used to study the inverse-kinematics reaction of 78Kr + 40Ca at a bombarding energy of 10 A MeV. The multi-detector is capable of detecting individual products of the collision essential for the reconstruction of the collision dynamics. This is the first time CHIMERA has been used at low-energy, which offered a unique challenge for the calibration and interpretation of experimental data. Initial interrogation of the calibrated data revealed a class of selected events characterized by two coincident heavy fragments (atomic number Z>3) that together account for the majority of the total mass of the colliding system. These events are consistent with the complete fusion and subsequent binary split (fission) of a composite nucleus. The observed fission fragments are characterized by a broad A, Z distribution and are centered about symmetric fission while exhibiting relative velocities significantly higher than given by Viola systematics. Additional analysis of the kinematic relationship between the fission fragments was performed. Of note, is that the center-of-mass angular distribution (dsigma/dtheta) of the fission fragments exhibits an unexpected anisotropy inconsistent with a compound-nucleus reaction. This anisotropy is indicative of a dynamic fusion/fission-like process. The observed angular distribution features a forward-backward anisotropy most prevalent for mass-asymmetric events. Furthermore, the more massive fragment of mass-asymmetric events appears to emerge preferentially in the forward direction, along the beam axis. Analysis of the angular distribution of alpha particles emitted from these fission fragments suggests the events are associated mostly with central collisions. The observations associated with this subset of events are similar to those reported for dynamic fragmentation of projectile-like fragments, but have not before been observed for a fusion/fission-like process. Comparisons to dynamic and statistical reaction model predictions are inconsistent with known phenomena, but suggest a peculiar dynamics-driven scenario. A plausible explanation of the experimental results is the existence of a phenomenon similar to a "fusion window", or a range of impact parameters in which complete fusion cannot be achieved. In this scenario, the system must absorb all the relative motion and convert it to vibrational energy or heat. As the energy increases the system may not be able to accommodate this conversion of energy without breaking apart.

Assessing Climate Change Risks Using a Multi-Model Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Scholze, M.; Prentice, C.

2007-12-01

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from the IPCC AR4 data archive using 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply or shifts in vegetation cover. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios. Instead, we consider the distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped according to the amount of global warming they simulate: < 2 degree C (including committed climate change simulations), 2-3 degree C, and >3 degree C. Here, we are contrasting two different methods for calculating the risks: first we use an equal weighting approach giving every model within one of the three sets the same weight, and second, we weight the models according to their ability to model ENSO. The differences are underpinning the need for the development of more robust performance metrics for global climate models.

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

A FORMATION SCENARIO OF YOUNG STELLAR GROUPS IN THE REGION OF THE SCORPIO CENTAURUS OB ASSOCIATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortega, V. G.; Jilinski, E.; De la Reza, R.

2009-04-15

The main objective of this work is to investigate the role played by Lower Centaurus Crux (LCC) and Upper Centaurus Lupus (UCL), both subcomponents of the Scorpio Centaurus OB association (Sco-Cen), in the formation of the groups {beta} Pictoris, TW Hydrae, and the {eta} Chamaeleontis cluster. The dynamical evolution of all the stellar groups involved and of the bubbles and shells blown by LCC and UCL are calculated, and followed from the past to the present. This leads to a formation scenario in which (1) the groups {beta} Pictoris, TW Hydrae were formed in the wake of the shells createdmore » by LCC and UCL, (2) the young cluster {eta} Chamaeleontis was born as a consequence of the collision of the shells of LCC and UCL, and (3) the formation of Upper Scorpius (US), the other main subcomponent of the Sco-Cen association, may have been started by the same process that created {eta} Chamaeleontis.« less

Three-dimensional derailment analysis of a crashed city tram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Hechao; Wang, Wenbin; Hecht, Markus

2013-08-01

City tram collisions are simulated using multi-body dynamics. The aim of this paper is to investigate the collision-induced derailment. Simulation results demonstrate that the corner obstacle collision scenario defined in EN 15227 is mainly focused on the energy absorption process. Due to the large impact angle (45°), it is unlikely for a city tram to comply with this scenario without derailment. In order to avoid derailment, the maximum impact angle between city tram and oblique obstacle should be reduced to 25°. Moreover, some influence factors are analysed, such as mass of loaded passengers, friction coefficient, impact angle, etc. Derailment phenomenon is shown to be significantly dependent on these parameters. Two measures are proposed to prevent the collided city tram from derailment. One is using secondary lateral dampers to absorb collision energy. Another is increasing the lateral stiffness of secondary springs as well as the lateral clearance, so that more collision energy can be stored in the suspension. With these measures, the safety against derailment can be improved.

Computational Modeling of Aerosol Hazard Arising from the Opening of an Anthrax Letter in an Open-Office Complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lien, F. S.; Ji, H.; Yee, E.

Early experimental work, conducted at Defence R&D Canada — Suffield, measured and characterized the personal and environmental contamination associated with the simulated opening of anthrax-tainted letters under a number of different scenarios. A better understanding of the physical and biological processes is considerably significant for detecting, assessing, and formulating potential mitigation strategies for managing these risks. These preliminary experimental investigations have been extended to simulate the contamination from the opening of anthrax-tainted letters in an Open-Office environment using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Bacillus globigii (BG) was used as a biological simulant for anthrax, with 0.1 gram of the simulant released from opened letters in the experiments conducted. The accuracy of the model for prediction of the spatial distribution of BG spores in the office is first assessed quantitatively by comparison with measured SF6 concentrations (the baseline experiment), and then qualitatively by comparison with measured BG concentrations obtained under a number of scenarios, some involving people moving within various offices.

L. monocytogenes in a cheese processing facility: Learning from contamination scenarios over three years of sampling.

PubMed

Rückerl, I; Muhterem-Uyar, M; Muri-Klinger, S; Wagner, K-H; Wagner, M; Stessl, B

2014-10-17

The aim of this study was to analyze the changing patterns of Listeria monocytogenes contamination in a cheese processing facility manufacturing a wide range of ready-to-eat products. Characterization of L. monocytogenes isolates included genotyping by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multi-locus sequence typing (MLST). Disinfectant-susceptibility tests and the assessment of L. monocytogenes survival in fresh cheese were also conducted. During the sampling period between 2010 and 2013, a total of 1284 environmental samples were investigated. Overall occurrence rates of Listeria spp. and L. monocytogenes were 21.9% and 19.5%, respectively. Identical L. monocytogenes genotypes were found in the food processing environment (FPE), raw materials and in products. Interventions after the sampling events changed contamination scenarios substantially. The high diversity of globally, widely distributed L. monocytogenes genotypes was reduced by identifying the major sources of contamination. Although susceptible to a broad range of disinfectants and cleaners, one dominant L. monocytogenes sequence type (ST) 5 could not be eradicated from drains and floors. Significantly, intense humidity and steam could be observed in all rooms and water residues were visible on floors due to increased cleaning strategies. This could explain the high L. monocytogenes contamination of the FPE (drains, shoes and floors) throughout the study (15.8%). The outcome of a challenge experiment in fresh cheese showed that L. monocytogenes could survive after 14days of storage at insufficient cooling temperatures (8 and 16°C). All efforts to reduce L. monocytogenes environmental contamination eventually led to a transition from dynamic to stable contamination scenarios. Consequently, implementation of systematic environmental monitoring via in-house systems should either aim for total avoidance of FPE colonization, or emphasize a first reduction of L. monocytogenes to sites where contamination of the processed product is unlikely. Drying of surfaces after cleaning is highly recommended to facilitate the L. monocytogenes eradication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of future scenarios to understand deep uncertainty

EPA Science Inventory

The environment and its interaction with human systems(economic, social and political) is complex and dynamic. Key drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions precisely. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challe...

Current and future land use around a nationwide protected area network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamilton, Christopher M.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Lewis, David J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.

2013-01-01

Land-use change around protected areas can reduce their effective size and limit their ability to conserve biodiversity because land-use change alters ecological processes and the ability of organisms to move freely among protected areas. The goal of our analysis was to inform conservation planning efforts for a nationwide network of protected lands by predicting future land use change. We evaluated the relative effect of three economic policy scenarios on land use surrounding the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's National Wildlife Refuges. We predicted changes for three land-use classes (forest/range, crop/pasture, and urban) by 2051. Our results showed an increase in forest/range lands (by 1.9% to 4.7% depending on the scenario), a decrease in crop/pasture between 15.2% and 23.1%, and a substantial increase in urban land use between 28.5% and 57.0%. The magnitude of land-use change differed strongly among different USFWS administrative regions, with the most change in the Upper Midwestern US (approximately 30%), and the Southeastern and Northeastern US (25%), and the rest of the U.S. between 15 and 20%. Among our scenarios, changes in land use were similar, with the exception of our “restricted-urban-growth” scenario, which resulted in noticeably different rates of change. This demonstrates that it will likely be difficult to influence land-use change patterns with national policies and that understanding regional land-use dynamics is critical for effective management and planning of protected lands throughout the U.S.

Assessment of hi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios over Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.

2017-12-01

The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.

Trapping of Noble Gases by Radiative Association with H3 + in the Protosolar Nebula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauzat, F.; Bacchus-Montabonel, M.-C.; Ellinger, Y.; Mousis, O.

2016-04-01

The heavy noble gas deficiencies observed in Titan’s atmosphere and in comets have been proposed to be related to a sequestration process by {{{H}}}3+ in the gas phase at the early protosolar nebula. Chemical thermodynamics and astrophysics modeling are favorable to this hypothesis, as presented in preceding papers. However, there is a point still to be raised, I.e., that no dynamical study of the efficiency of the collisional processes had been performed so far. Here, we show that, apart from the expected exception of Ne, the rate constants obtained, I.e., 0.7 × 10-18, 0.5 × 10-16, and 10-16 (cm3 s-1) for Ar, Kr, and Xe, respectively, are reasonably high for such processes, particularly in the case of Kr and Xe. The temperature dependence is also considered, showing a similar behavior for all noble gases with a peak efficiency in the range 50-60 K. Globally, we can conclude that the scenario of sequestration by {{{H}}}3+ is definitively comforted by the results of our quantum dynamical treatment. This process may also be responsible of the Ar impoverishment just measured in comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko by the ROSINA mass spectrometer on board the Rosetta spacecraft.

Model of the best-of-N nest-site selection process in honeybees.

PubMed

Reina, Andreagiovanni; Marshall, James A R; Trianni, Vito; Bose, Thomas

2017-05-01

The ability of a honeybee swarm to select the best nest site plays a fundamental role in determining the future colony's fitness. To date, the nest-site selection process has mostly been modeled and theoretically analyzed for the case of binary decisions. However, when the number of alternative nests is larger than two, the decision-process dynamics qualitatively change. In this work, we extend previous analyses of a value-sensitive decision-making mechanism to a decision process among N nests. First, we present the decision-making dynamics in the symmetric case of N equal-quality nests. Then, we generalize our findings to a best-of-N decision scenario with one superior nest and N-1 inferior nests, previously studied empirically in bees and ants. Whereas previous binary models highlighted the crucial role of inhibitory stop-signaling, the key parameter in our new analysis is the relative time invested by swarm members in individual discovery and in signaling behaviors. Our new analysis reveals conflicting pressures on this ratio in symmetric and best-of-N decisions, which could be solved through a time-dependent signaling strategy. Additionally, our analysis suggests how ecological factors determining the density of suitable nest sites may have led to selective pressures for an optimal stable signaling ratio.

Model of the best-of-N nest-site selection process in honeybees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reina, Andreagiovanni; Marshall, James A. R.; Trianni, Vito; Bose, Thomas

2017-05-01

The ability of a honeybee swarm to select the best nest site plays a fundamental role in determining the future colony's fitness. To date, the nest-site selection process has mostly been modeled and theoretically analyzed for the case of binary decisions. However, when the number of alternative nests is larger than two, the decision-process dynamics qualitatively change. In this work, we extend previous analyses of a value-sensitive decision-making mechanism to a decision process among N nests. First, we present the decision-making dynamics in the symmetric case of N equal-quality nests. Then, we generalize our findings to a best-of-N decision scenario with one superior nest and N -1 inferior nests, previously studied empirically in bees and ants. Whereas previous binary models highlighted the crucial role of inhibitory stop-signaling, the key parameter in our new analysis is the relative time invested by swarm members in individual discovery and in signaling behaviors. Our new analysis reveals conflicting pressures on this ratio in symmetric and best-of-N decisions, which could be solved through a time-dependent signaling strategy. Additionally, our analysis suggests how ecological factors determining the density of suitable nest sites may have led to selective pressures for an optimal stable signaling ratio.

Applying Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Support Quantitative Safety Analysis for Proposed Reduced Wake Separation Conops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shortle, John F.; Allocco, Michael

2005-01-01

This paper describes a scenario-driven hazard analysis process to identify, eliminate, and control safety-related risks. Within this process, we develop selective criteria to determine the applicability of applying engineering modeling to hypothesized hazard scenarios. This provides a basis for evaluating and prioritizing the scenarios as candidates for further quantitative analysis. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for closely spaced parallel runways. For arrivals, the process identified 43 core hazard scenarios. Of these, we classified 12 as appropriate for further quantitative modeling, 24 that should be mitigated through controls, recommendations, and / or procedures (that is, scenarios not appropriate for quantitative modeling), and 7 that have the lowest priority for further analysis.

Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey S.; Cabrall, Christopher; Callantine, Todd

2013-01-01

Well prepared traffic scenarios contribute greatly to the success of controller-in-the-loop simulations. This paper describes each stage in the design process of realistic scenarios based on real-world traffic, to be used in the Airspace Operations Laboratory for simulations within the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration 1 effort. The steps from the initial analysis of real-world traffic, to the editing of individual aircraft records in the scenario file, until the final testing of the scenarios before the simulation conduct, are all described. The iterative nature of the design process and the various efforts necessary to reach the required fidelity, as well as the applied design strategies, challenges, and tools used during this process are also discussed.

Transmission dynamics of two dengue serotypes with vaccination scenarios.

PubMed

González Morales, N L; Núñez-López, M; Ramos-Castañeda, J; Velasco-Hernández, J X

2017-05-01

In this work we present a mathematical model that incorporates two Dengue serotypes. The model has been constructed to study both the epidemiological trends of the disease and conditions that allow coexistence in competing strains under vaccination. We consider two viral strains and temporary cross-immunity with one vector mosquito population. Results suggest that vaccination scenarios will not only reduce disease incidence but will also modify the transmission dynamics. Indeed, vaccination and cross immunity period are seen to decrease the frequency and magnitude of outbreaks but in a differentiated manner with specific effects depending upon the interaction vaccine and strain type. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantum cluster variational method and message passing algorithms revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez, E.; Mulet, Roberto

2018-02-01

We present a general framework to study quantum disordered systems in the context of the Kikuchi's cluster variational method (CVM). The method relies in the solution of message passing-like equations for single instances or in the iterative solution of complex population dynamic algorithms for an average case scenario. We first show how a standard application of the Kikuchi's CVM can be easily translated to message passing equations for specific instances of the disordered system. We then present an "ad hoc" extension of these equations to a population dynamic algorithm representing an average case scenario. At the Bethe level, these equations are equivalent to the dynamic population equations that can be derived from a proper cavity ansatz. However, at the plaquette approximation, the interpretation is more subtle and we discuss it taking also into account previous results in classical disordered models. Moreover, we develop a formalism to properly deal with the average case scenario using a replica-symmetric ansatz within this CVM for quantum disordered systems. Finally, we present and discuss numerical solutions of the different approximations for the quantum transverse Ising model and the quantum random field Ising model in two-dimensional lattices.

Saving the Inner Solar System with an Early Instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clement, Matthew; Kaib, Nathan A.; Raymond, Sean N.; Walsh, Kevin J.

2018-04-01

An orbital instability between the solar system’s giant planets (the so-called Nice Model) has been shown to greatly disturb the orbits of the young terrestrial planets. Undesirable outcomes such as over-excitated orbits, ejections and collisions can be avoided if the instability occurs before the inner planets are fully formed. Such a scenario also has the advantage of limiting the mass and formation time of Mars when it occurs within several million years (Myr) of gas disk dissipation. The dynamical effects of the instability cause many small embryos and planetesimals to scatter away from the forming Mars, and lead to heavy mass depletion in the Asteroid Belt. We present new simulations of this scenario that demonstrate its ability to accurately reproduce the eccentricity, inclination and resonant structures of the Asteroid Belt. Furthermore, we perform simulations using an integration scheme which accounts for the fragmentation of colliding bodies. The final terrestrial systems formed in these simulations provide a better match to the actual planets' compact mass distribution and dynamically cold orbits. An early instability scenario is thus very successful at simultaneously replicating the dynamical state of both the inner and outer solar system.

Community dynamics and ecosystem simplification in a high-CO2 ocean.

PubMed

Kroeker, Kristy J; Gambi, Maria Cristina; Micheli, Fiorenza

2013-07-30

Disturbances are natural features of ecosystems that promote variability in the community and ultimately maintain diversity. Although it is recognized that global change will affect environmental disturbance regimes, our understanding of the community dynamics governing ecosystem recovery and the maintenance of functional diversity in future scenarios is very limited. Here, we use one of the few ecosystems naturally exposed to future scenarios of environmental change to examine disturbance and recovery dynamics. We examine the recovery patterns of marine species from a physical disturbance across different acidification regimes caused by volcanic CO2 vents. Plots of shallow rocky reef were cleared of all species in areas of ambient, low, and extreme low pH that correspond to near-future and extreme scenarios for ocean acidification. Our results illustrate how acidification decreases the variability of communities, resulting in homogenization and reduced functional diversity at a landscape scale. Whereas the recovery trajectories in ambient pH were highly variable and resulted in a diverse range of assemblages, recovery was more predictable with acidification and consistently resulted in very similar algal-dominated assemblages. Furthermore, low pH zones had fewer signs of biological disturbance (primarily sea urchin grazing) and increased recovery rates of the dominant taxa (primarily fleshy algae). Together, our results highlight how environmental change can cause ecosystem simplification via environmentally mediated changes in community dynamics in the near future, with cascading impacts on functional diversity and ecosystem function.

Envisioning Nano Release Dynamics in a Changing World: Using Dynamic Probabilistic Modeling to Assess Future Environmental Emissions of Engineered Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sun, Tian Yin; Mitrano, Denise M; Bornhöft, Nikolaus A; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Nowack, Bernd

2017-03-07

The need for an environmental risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials (ENM) necessitates the knowledge about their environmental emissions. Material flow models (MFA) have been used to provide predicted environmental emissions but most current nano-MFA models consider neither the rapid development of ENM production nor the fact that a large proportion of ENM are entering an in-use stock and are released from products over time (i.e., have a lag phase). Here we use dynamic probabilistic material flow modeling to predict scenarios of the future flows of four ENM (nano-TiO 2 , nano-ZnO, nano-Ag and CNT) to environmental compartments and to quantify their amounts in (temporary) sinks such as the in-use stock and ("final") environmental sinks such as soil and sediment. In these scenarios, we estimate likely future amounts if the use and distribution of ENM in products continues along current trends (i.e., a business-as-usual approach) and predict the effect of hypothetical trends in the market development of nanomaterials, such as the emergence of a new widely used product or the ban on certain substances, on the flows of nanomaterials to the environment in years to come. We show that depending on the scenario and the product type affected, significant changes of the flows occur over time, driven by the growth of stocks and delayed release dynamics.

Operational modeling system with dynamic-wave routing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ishii, A.L.; Charlton, T.J.; Ortel, T.W.; Vonnahme, C.C.; ,

1998-01-01

A near real-time streamflow-simulation system utilizing continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff generation with dynamic-wave routing is being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Du Page County Department of Environmental Concerns for a 24-kilometer reach of Salt Creek in Du Page County, Illinois. This system is needed in order to more effectively manage the Elmhurst Quarry Flood Control Facility, an off-line stormwater diversion reservoir located along Salt Creek. Near real time simulation capabilities will enable the testing and evaluation of potential rainfall, diversion, and return-flow scenarios on water-surface elevations along Salt Creek before implementing diversions or return-flows. The climatological inputs for the continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model, Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) are obtained by Internet access and from a network of radio-telemetered precipitation gages reporting to a base-station computer. The unit area runoff time series generated from HSPF are the input for the dynamic-wave routing model. Full Equations (FEQ). The Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios (GENSCN) interface is used as a pre- and post-processor for managing input data and displaying and managing simulation results. The GENSCN interface includes a variety of graphical and analytical tools for evaluation and quick visualization of the results of operational scenario simulations and thereby makes it possible to obtain the full benefit of the fully distributed dynamic routing results.

The role of riparian vegetation density, channel orientation and water velocity in determining river temperature dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, Grace; Malcolm, Iain A.; Sadler, Jonathan P.; Hannah, David M.

2017-10-01

A simulation experiment was used to understand the importance of riparian vegetation density, channel orientation and flow velocity for stream energy budgets and river temperature dynamics. Water temperature and meteorological observations were obtained in addition to hemispherical photographs along a ∼1 km reach of the Girnock Burn, a tributary of the Aberdeenshire Dee, Scotland. Data from nine hemispherical images (representing different uniform canopy density scenarios) were used to parameterise a deterministic net radiation model and simulate radiative fluxes. For each vegetation scenario, the effects of eight channel orientations were investigated by changing the position of north at 45° intervals in each hemispheric image. Simulated radiative fluxes and observed turbulent fluxes drove a high-resolution water temperature model of the reach. Simulations were performed under low and high water velocity scenarios. Both velocity scenarios yielded decreases in mean (≥1.6 °C) and maximum (≥3.0 °C) temperature as canopy density increased. Slow-flowing water resided longer within the reach, which enhanced heat accumulation and dissipation, and drove higher maximum and lower minimum temperatures. Intermediate levels of shade produced highly variable energy flux and water temperature dynamics depending on the channel orientation and thus the time of day when the channel was shaded. We demonstrate that in many reaches relatively sparse but strategically located vegetation could produce substantial reductions in maximum temperature and suggest that these criteria are used to inform future river management.

Exploring Bioeconomy Growth through the Public Release of the Biomass Scenario Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newes, Emily K; Biddy, Mary J; Bush, Brian W

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is an important tool for exploring vibrant future bioeconomy scenarios that leverage domestic resources. Developed by NREL and BETO, this model of the domestic biofuels supply chain has been used to explore success strategies for BETO's activities towards bioeconomy growth. The BSM offers a robust test bed for detailed exploration of effects of BETO activities within the complex context of resource availability; physical, technological, and economic constraints; behavior; and policy. The public release of the model in 2017 will allow broad engagement with the theme of the conference as model users can analyze bioeconomy growth,more » domestic biomass resource use, and associated effects. The BSM is a carefully validated, state-of-the-art, dynamic model of the biomass to biofuels supply chain. Using a system dynamics simulation modeling approach, the model tracks long-term deployment of biofuels given technology development and investment, considering land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand, and government policies over time. Sample outputs include biofuels production, feedstock use, capital investment, incentives, and costs of feedstocks and fuels. BSM scenarios reveal technological, economic, and policy challenges, as well as opportunities for dynamic growth of the bioeconomy with strategic public and private investment at key points in the system. The model logic and results have been reviewed extensively, through collaborative analysis, expert reviews and external publications (https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/).« less

Chaotic dynamics of flexible beams driven by external white noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awrejcewicz, J.; Krysko, A. V.; Papkova, I. V.; Zakharov, V. M.; Erofeev, N. P.; Krylova, E. Yu.; Mrozowski, J.; Krysko, V. A.

2016-10-01

Mathematical models of continuous structural members (beams, plates and shells) subjected to an external additive white noise are studied. The structural members are considered as systems with infinite number of degrees of freedom. We show that in mechanical structural systems external noise can not only lead to quantitative changes in the system dynamics (that is obvious), but also cause the qualitative, and sometimes surprising changes in the vibration regimes. Furthermore, we show that scenarios of the transition from regular to chaotic regimes quantified by Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) can lead to erroneous conclusions, and a support of the wavelet analysis is needed. We have detected and illustrated the modifications of classical three scenarios of transition from regular vibrations to deterministic chaos. The carried out numerical experiment shows that the white noise lowers the threshold for transition into spatio-temporal chaotic dynamics. A transition into chaos via the proposed modified scenarios developed in this work is sensitive to small noise and significantly reduces occurrence of periodic vibrations. Increase of noise intensity yields decrease of the duration of the laminar signal range, i.e., time between two successive turbulent bursts decreases. Scenario of transition into chaos of the studied mechanical structures essentially depends on the control parameters, and it can be different in different zones of the constructed charts (control parameter planes). Furthermore, we found an interesting phenomenon, when increase of the noise intensity yields surprisingly the vibrational characteristics with a lack of noisy effect (chaos is destroyed by noise and windows of periodicity appear).

Dynamics of sustained use and abandonment of clean cooking systems: lessons from rural India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalise, Nishesh; Kumar, Praveen; Priyadarshini, Pratiti; Yadama, Gautam N.

2018-03-01

Clean cooking technologies—ranging from efficient cookstoves to clean fuels—are widely deployed to reduce household air pollution and alleviate adverse health and climate consequences. Although much progress has been made on the technical aspects, sustained and proper use of clean cooking technologies by populations with the most need has been problematic. Only by understanding how clean cooking as an intervention is embedded within complex community processes can we ensure its sustained implementation. Using a community-based system dynamics approach, we engaged two rural communities in co-creating a dynamic model to explain the processes influencing the uptake and transition to sustained use of biogas (an anaerobic methane digester), a clean fuel and cooking technology. The two communities provided contrasting cases: one abandoned biogas while the other continues to use it. We present a system dynamics simulation model, associated analyses, and experiments to understand what factors drive transition and sustained use. A central insight of the model is community processes influencing the capacity to solve technical issues. Model analysis shows that families begin to abandon the technology when it takes longer to solve problems. The momentum in the community then shifts from a determination to address issues with the cooking technology toward caution in further adhering to it. We also conducted experiments using the simulation model to understand the impact of interventions aimed at renewing the use of biogas. A combination of theoretical interventions, including repair of non-functioning biogas units and provision of embedded technical support in communities, resulted in a scenario where the community can continue using the technology even after support is retracted. Our study also demonstrates the utility of a systems approach for engaging local stakeholders in delineating complex community processes to derive significant insights into the dynamic feedback mechanisms involved in the sustained use of biogas by the poor.

Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From thesemore » five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.« less

Time-spatial model on the dynamics of the proliferation of Aedes aegypti

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouvêa, Maury Meirelles, Jr.

2017-03-01

Some complex physical systems, such as cellular regulation, ecosystems, and societies, can be represented by local interactions between agents. Then, complex behaviors may emerge. A cellular automaton is a discrete dynamic system with these features. Among the several complex systems, epidemic diseases are given special attention by researchers with respect to their dynamics. Understanding the behavior of an epidemic may well benefit a society. For instance, different proliferation scenarios may be produced and a prevention policy set. This paper presents a new simulation method of the time-spatial spread of the Dengue mosquito with a cellular automaton. Thus, it will be possible to create different dissemination scenarios and preventive policies for these in several regions. Simulations were performed with different initial conditions and parameters as a result of which the behavior of the proposed method was characterized.

Capturing a Commander's decision making style

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Eugene; Nguyen, Hien; Russell, Jacob; Kim, Keumjoo; Veenhuis, Luke; Boparai, Ramnjit; Stautland, Thomas Kristoffer

2017-05-01

A Commander's decision making style represents how he weighs his choices and evaluates possible solutions with regards to his goals. Specifically, in the naval warfare domain, it relates the way he processes a large amount of information in dynamic, uncertain environments, allocates resources, and chooses appropriate actions to pursue. In this paper, we describe an approach to capture a Commander's decision style by creating a cognitive model that captures his decisionmaking process and evaluate this model using a set of scenarios using an online naval warfare simulation game. In this model, we use the Commander's past behaviors and generalize Commander's actions across multiple problems and multiple decision making sequences in order to recommend actions to a Commander in a manner that he may have taken. Our approach builds upon the Double Transition Model to represent the Commander's focus and beliefs to estimate his cognitive state. Each cognitive state reflects a stage in a Commander's decision making process, each action reflects the tasks that he has taken to move himself closer to a final decision, and the reward reflects how close he is to achieving his goal. We then use inverse reinforcement learning to compute a reward for each of the Commander's actions. These rewards and cognitive states are used to compare between different styles of decision making. We construct a set of scenarios in the game where rational, intuitive and spontaneous decision making styles will be evaluated.

Computable general equilibrium modelling of economic impacts from volcanic event scenarios at regional and national scale, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, G. W.; Cronin, S. J.; Kim, J.-H.; Smith, N. J.; Murray, C. A.; Procter, J. N.

2017-12-01

The economic impacts of volcanism extend well beyond the direct costs of loss of life and asset damage. This paper presents one of the first attempts to assess the economic consequences of disruption associated with volcanic impacts at a range of temporal and spatial scales using multi-regional and dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. Based on the last decade of volcanic research findings at Mt. Taranaki, three volcanic event scenarios (Tahurangi, Inglewood and Opua) differentiated by critical physical thresholds were generated. In turn, the corresponding disruption economic impacts were calculated for each scenario. Under the Tahurangi scenario (annual probability of 0.01-0.02), a small-scale explosive (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2-3) and dome forming eruption, the economic impacts were negligible with complete economic recovery experienced within a year. The larger Inglewood sub-Plinian to Plinian eruption scenario event (VEI > 4, annualised probability of 0.003) produced significant impacts on the Taranaki region economy of 207 million (representing 4.0% of regional gross domestic product (GDP) 1 year after the event, 2007 New Zealand dollars), that will take around 5 years to recover. The Opua scenario, the largest magnitude volcanic hazard modelled, is a major flank collapse and debris avalanche event with an annual probability of 0.00018. The associated economic impacts of this scenario were 397 million (representing 7.7% of regional GDP 1 year after the event) with the Taranaki region economy suffering permanent structural changes. Our dynamic analysis illustrates that different economic impacts play out at different stages in a volcanic crisis. We also discuss the key strengths and weaknesses of our modelling along with potential extensions.

Urban Climate Resilience - Connecting climate models with decision support cyberinfrastructure using open standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bermudez, L. E.; Percivall, G.; Idol, T. A.

2015-12-01

Experts in climate modeling, remote sensing of the Earth, and cyber infrastructure must work together in order to make climate predictions available to decision makers. Such experts and decision makers worked together in the Open Geospatial Consortium's (OGC) Testbed 11 to address a scenario of population displacement by coastal inundation due to the predicted sea level rise. In a Policy Fact Sheet "Harnessing Climate Data to Boost Ecosystem & Water Resilience", issued by White House Office of Science and Technology (OSTP) in December 2014, OGC committed to increase access to climate change information using open standards. In July 2015, the OGC Testbed 11 Urban Climate Resilience activity delivered on that commitment with open standards based support for climate-change preparedness. Using open standards such as the OGC Web Coverage Service and Web Processing Service and the NetCDF and GMLJP2 encoding standards, Testbed 11 deployed an interoperable high-resolution flood model to bring climate model outputs together with global change assessment models and other remote sensing data for decision support. Methods to confirm model predictions and to allow "what-if-scenarios" included in-situ sensor webs and crowdsourcing. A scenario was in two locations: San Francisco Bay Area and Mozambique. The scenarios demonstrated interoperation and capabilities of open geospatial specifications in supporting data services and processing services. The resultant High Resolution Flood Information System addressed access and control of simulation models and high-resolution data in an open, worldwide, collaborative Web environment. The scenarios examined the feasibility and capability of existing OGC geospatial Web service specifications in supporting the on-demand, dynamic serving of flood information from models with forecasting capacity. Results of this testbed included identification of standards and best practices that help researchers and cities deal with climate-related issues. Results of the testbeds will now be deployed in pilot applications. The testbed also identified areas of additional development needed to help identify scientific investments and cyberinfrastructure approaches needed to improve the application of climate science research results to urban climate resilence.

Exploring the Dynamics of Cell Processes through Simulations of Fluorescence Microscopy Experiments

PubMed Central

Angiolini, Juan; Plachta, Nicolas; Mocskos, Esteban; Levi, Valeria

2015-01-01

Fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) methods are powerful tools for unveiling the dynamical organization of cells. For simple cases, such as molecules passively moving in a homogeneous media, FCS analysis yields analytical functions that can be fitted to the experimental data to recover the phenomenological rate parameters. Unfortunately, many dynamical processes in cells do not follow these simple models, and in many instances it is not possible to obtain an analytical function through a theoretical analysis of a more complex model. In such cases, experimental analysis can be combined with Monte Carlo simulations to aid in interpretation of the data. In response to this need, we developed a method called FERNET (Fluorescence Emission Recipes and Numerical routines Toolkit) based on Monte Carlo simulations and the MCell-Blender platform, which was designed to treat the reaction-diffusion problem under realistic scenarios. This method enables us to set complex geometries of the simulation space, distribute molecules among different compartments, and define interspecies reactions with selected kinetic constants, diffusion coefficients, and species brightness. We apply this method to simulate single- and multiple-point FCS, photon-counting histogram analysis, raster image correlation spectroscopy, and two-color fluorescence cross-correlation spectroscopy. We believe that this new program could be very useful for predicting and understanding the output of fluorescence microscopy experiments. PMID:26039162

Nonlinear dynamic model for visual object tracking on Grassmann manifolds with partial occlusion handling.

PubMed

Khan, Zulfiqar Hasan; Gu, Irene Yu-Hua

2013-12-01

This paper proposes a novel Bayesian online learning and tracking scheme for video objects on Grassmann manifolds. Although manifold visual object tracking is promising, large and fast nonplanar (or out-of-plane) pose changes and long-term partial occlusions of deformable objects in video remain a challenge that limits the tracking performance. The proposed method tackles these problems with the main novelties on: 1) online estimation of object appearances on Grassmann manifolds; 2) optimal criterion-based occlusion handling for online updating of object appearances; 3) a nonlinear dynamic model for both the appearance basis matrix and its velocity; and 4) Bayesian formulations, separately for the tracking process and the online learning process, that are realized by employing two particle filters: one is on the manifold for generating appearance particles and another on the linear space for generating affine box particles. Tracking and online updating are performed in an alternating fashion to mitigate the tracking drift. Experiments using the proposed tracker on videos captured by a single dynamic/static camera have shown robust tracking performance, particularly for scenarios when target objects contain significant nonplanar pose changes and long-term partial occlusions. Comparisons with eight existing state-of-the-art/most relevant manifold/nonmanifold trackers with evaluations have provided further support to the proposed scheme.

Generic Dynamic Environment Perception Using Smart Mobile Devices.

PubMed

Danescu, Radu; Itu, Razvan; Petrovai, Andra

2016-10-17

The driving environment is complex and dynamic, and the attention of the driver is continuously challenged, therefore computer based assistance achieved by processing image and sensor data may increase traffic safety. While active sensors and stereovision have the advantage of obtaining 3D data directly, monocular vision is easy to set up, and can benefit from the increasing computational power of smart mobile devices, and from the fact that almost all of them come with an embedded camera. Several driving assistance application are available for mobile devices, but they are mostly targeted for simple scenarios and a limited range of obstacle shapes and poses. This paper presents a technique for generic, shape independent real-time obstacle detection for mobile devices, based on a dynamic, free form 3D representation of the environment: the particle based occupancy grid. Images acquired in real time from the smart mobile device's camera are processed by removing the perspective effect and segmenting the resulted bird-eye view image to identify candidate obstacle areas, which are then used to update the occupancy grid. The occupancy grid tracked cells are grouped into obstacles depicted as cuboids having position, size, orientation and speed. The easy to set up system is able to reliably detect most obstacles in urban traffic, and its measurement accuracy is comparable to a stereovision system.

The role of future scenarios to understand deep uncertainty in air quality management

EPA Science Inventory

The environment and it’s interaction with human systems (economic, social and political) is complex and dynamic. Key drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions precisely. This kind of deep uncertainty presents ...

Safety of railroad passenger vehicle dynamics : OMNISIM simulation and test correlations for passenger rail cars

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-07-01

The purpose of the work is to validate the safety assessment methodology previously developed for passenger rail vehicle dynamics, which requires the application of simulation tools as well as testing of vehicles under different track scenarios. This...

Assessment of the visual landscape impact and dominance of wind tubines in Austria using weighted viewshed maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schauppenlehner, Thomas; Salak, Boris; Scherhaufer, Patrick; Höltinger, Stefan; Schmidt, Johannes

2017-04-01

Due to efficiency reasons and broadly availability of wind, wind energy is in focus of strategies regarding the expansion of renewable energy and energy transition policies. Nevertheless, the dimensions of the wind turbines and rotating dynamics have a significant impact on the landscape scenery and recreation as well as tourism activities. This often leads to local opposition against wind energy projects and is a major criterion regarding the acceptance of wind energy. In the project TransWind, the social acceptance of wind energy is surveyed on the basis of different development scenarios for Austria. Therefore, a GIS-based viewshed indicator was developed to assess the visual impact of different development scenarios as well as the current situation using weighted - regarding distance, amount and masking - viewshed analysis. This weighted viewshed maps for Austria allows a comprehensive evaluation of existing and potential wind energy sites regarding dominance and visual impact and can contribute to the spatial development process of wind energy site. Different regions can be compared and repowering strategies can be evaluated. Due to the large project area, data resolutions, generalized assumptions (e.g. tree heights) and missing data (e.g. solitary trees, small hedges) at local level further analysis are necessary but it supports the assessment of large-scale development scenarios can be identified.

Deep winter convection and phytoplankton dynamics in the NW Mediterranean Sea under present climate and future (horizon 2030) scenarios.

PubMed

Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Stips, Adolf

2018-04-26

Deep water convection (DC) in winter is one of the major processes driving open-ocean primary productivity in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. DC is highly variable in time, depending on the specific conditions (stratification, circulation and ocean-atmosphere interactions) of each specific winter. This variability also drives the interannual oscillations of open-ocean primary productivity in this important region for many commercially-important fish species. We use a coupled model system to 1) understand to what extent DC impacts phytoplankton seasonality in the present-day and 2) to explore potential changes in future scenarios (~2030). Our model represents quite accurately the present-day characteristics of DC and its importance for open-ocean phytoplankton blooms. However, for the future scenarios the importance of deep nutrients in fertilizing the euphotic layer of the NW Mediterranean decreases. The model simulates changes in surface density and on the levels of kinetic energy that make mesoscale activity associated with horizontal currents to become a more important fertilization mechanism, inducing subsequently phenological changes in seasonal plankton cycles. Because of our focus on the open-sea, an exact quantification of the impact of those changes on the overall biological production of the NW Mediterranean cannot be made at the moment.

Nitrogen dynamics post-harvest: the role of woody residues

Treesearch

Kathryn Piatek

2007-01-01

The role of woody residues in N dynamics in harvested forests has not been fully elucidated. Woody residues have been found to be an N sink, N source, and N neutral in different studies. To understand the implications of each of these scenarios, post-harvest N dynamics in high- and no- woody residue treatments were modeled for a Douglas-fir ecosystem. Nitrogen...

Dynamic Involvement of Real World Objects in the IoT: A Consensus-Based Cooperation Approach

PubMed Central

Pilloni, Virginia; Atzori, Luigi; Mallus, Matteo

2017-01-01

A significant role in the Internet of Things (IoT) will be taken by mobile and low-cost unstable devices, which autonomously self-organize and introduce highly dynamic and heterogeneous scenarios for the deployment of distributed applications. This entails the devices to cooperate to dynamically find the suitable combination of their involvement so as to improve the system reliability while following the changes in their status. Focusing on the above scenario, we propose a distributed algorithm for resources allocation that is run by devices that can perform the same task required by the applications, allowing for a flexible and dynamic binding of the requested services with the physical IoT devices. It is based on a consensus approach, which maximizes the lifetime of groups of nodes involved and ensures the fulfillment of the requested Quality of Information (QoI) requirements. Experiments have been conducted with real devices, showing an improvement of device lifetime of more than 20%, with respect to a uniform distribution of tasks. PMID:28257030

Dynamic Involvement of Real World Objects in the IoT: A Consensus-Based Cooperation Approach.

PubMed

Pilloni, Virginia; Atzori, Luigi; Mallus, Matteo

2017-03-01

A significant role in the Internet of Things (IoT) will be taken by mobile and low-cost unstable devices, which autonomously self-organize and introduce highly dynamic and heterogeneous scenarios for the deployment of distributed applications. This entails the devices to cooperate to dynamically find the suitable combination of their involvement so as to improve the system reliability while following the changes in their status. Focusing on the above scenario, we propose a distributed algorithm for resources allocation that is run by devices that can perform the same task required by the applications, allowing for a flexible and dynamic binding of the requested services with the physical IoT devices. It is based on a consensus approach, which maximizes the lifetime of groups of nodes involved and ensures the fulfillment of the requested Quality of Information (QoI) requirements. Experiments have been conducted with real devices, showing an improvement of device lifetime of more than 20 % , with respect to a uniform distribution of tasks.

Designing Agent Collectives For Systems With Markovian Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolpert, David H.; Lawson, John W.

2004-01-01

The Collective Intelligence (COIN) framework concerns the design of collectives of agents so that as those agents strive to maximize their individual utility functions, their interaction causes a provided world utility function concerning the entire collective to be also maximized. Here we show how to extend that framework to scenarios having Markovian dynamics when no re-evolution of the system from counter-factual initial conditions (an often expensive calculation) is permitted. Our approach transforms the (time-extended) argument of each agent's utility function before evaluating that function. This transformation has benefits in scenarios not involving Markovian dynamics of an agent's utility function are observable. We investigate this transformation in simulations involving both hear and quadratic (nonlinear) dynamics. In addition, we find that a certain subset of these transformations, which result in utilities that have low opacity (analogous to having high signal to noise) but are not factored (analogous to not being incentive compatible), reliably improve performance over that arising with factored utilities. We also present a Taylor Series method for the fully general nonlinear case.

Modeling behavior dynamics using computational psychometrics within virtual worlds.

PubMed

Cipresso, Pietro

2015-01-01

In case of fire in a building, how will people behave in the crowd? The behavior of each individual affects the behavior of others and, conversely, each one behaves considering the crowd as a whole and the individual others. In this article, I propose a three-step method to explore a brand new way to study behavior dynamics. The first step relies on the creation of specific situations with standard techniques (such as mental imagery, text, video, and audio) and an advanced technique [Virtual Reality (VR)] to manipulate experimental settings. The second step concerns the measurement of behavior in one, two, or many individuals focusing on parameters extractions to provide information about the behavior dynamics. Finally, the third step, which uses the parameters collected and measured in the previous two steps in order to simulate possible scenarios to forecast through computational models, understand, and explain behavior dynamics at the social level. An experimental study was also included to demonstrate the three-step method and a possible scenario.

Modelling of hydrogen permeability of membranes for high-purity hydrogen production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaika, Yury V.; Rodchenkova, Natalia I.

2017-11-01

High-purity hydrogen is required for clean energy and a variety of chemical technology processes. Different alloys, which may be well-suited for use in gas-separation plants, were investigated by measuring specific hydrogen permeability. One had to estimate the parameters of diffusion and sorption to numerically model the different scenarios and experimental conditions of the material usage (including extreme ones), and identify the limiting factors. This paper presents a nonlinear mathematical model taking into account the dynamics of sorption-desorption processes and reversible capture of diffusing hydrogen by inhomogeneity of the material’s structure, and also modification of the model when the transport rate is high. The results of numerical modelling allow to obtain information about output data sensitivity with respect to variations of the material’s hydrogen permeability parameters. Furthermore, it is possible to analyze the dynamics of concentrations and fluxes that cannot be measured directly. Experimental data for Ta77Nb23 and V85Ni15 alloys were used to test the model. This work is supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project No. 15-01-00744).

Universality of long-range correlations in expansion randomization systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messer, P. W.; Lässig, M.; Arndt, P. F.

2005-10-01

We study the stochastic dynamics of sequences evolving by single-site mutations, segmental duplications, deletions, and random insertions. These processes are relevant for the evolution of genomic DNA. They define a universality class of non-equilibrium 1D expansion-randomization systems with generic stationary long-range correlations in a regime of growing sequence length. We obtain explicitly the two-point correlation function of the sequence composition and the distribution function of the composition bias in sequences of finite length. The characteristic exponent χ of these quantities is determined by the ratio of two effective rates, which are explicitly calculated for several specific sequence evolution dynamics of the universality class. Depending on the value of χ, we find two different scaling regimes, which are distinguished by the detectability of the initial composition bias. All analytic results are accurately verified by numerical simulations. We also discuss the non-stationary build-up and decay of correlations, as well as more complex evolutionary scenarios, where the rates of the processes vary in time. Our findings provide a possible example for the emergence of universality in molecular biology.

Towards inverse modeling of turbidity currents: The inverse lock-exchange problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesshafft, Lutz; Meiburg, Eckart; Kneller, Ben; Marsden, Alison

2011-04-01

A new approach is introduced for turbidite modeling, leveraging the potential of computational fluid dynamics methods to simulate the flow processes that led to turbidite formation. The practical use of numerical flow simulation for the purpose of turbidite modeling so far is hindered by the need to specify parameters and initial flow conditions that are a priori unknown. The present study proposes a method to determine optimal simulation parameters via an automated optimization process. An iterative procedure matches deposit predictions from successive flow simulations against available localized reference data, as in practice may be obtained from well logs, and aims at convergence towards the best-fit scenario. The final result is a prediction of the entire deposit thickness and local grain size distribution. The optimization strategy is based on a derivative-free, surrogate-based technique. Direct numerical simulations are performed to compute the flow dynamics. A proof of concept is successfully conducted for the simple test case of a two-dimensional lock-exchange turbidity current. The optimization approach is demonstrated to accurately retrieve the initial conditions used in a reference calculation.

Co-exposure with fullerene may strengthen health effects of organic industrial chemicals.

PubMed

Lehto, Maili; Karilainen, Topi; Róg, Tomasz; Cramariuc, Oana; Vanhala, Esa; Tornaeus, Jarkko; Taberman, Helena; Jänis, Janne; Alenius, Harri; Vattulainen, Ilpo; Laine, Olli

2014-01-01

In vitro toxicological studies together with atomistic molecular dynamics simulations show that occupational co-exposure with C60 fullerene may strengthen the health effects of organic industrial chemicals. The chemicals studied are acetophenone, benzaldehyde, benzyl alcohol, m-cresol, and toluene which can be used with fullerene as reagents or solvents in industrial processes. Potential co-exposure scenarios include a fullerene dust and organic chemical vapor, or a fullerene solution aerosolized in workplace air. Unfiltered and filtered mixtures of C60 and organic chemicals represent different co-exposure scenarios in in vitro studies where acute cytotoxicity and immunotoxicity of C60 and organic chemicals are tested together and alone by using human THP-1-derived macrophages. Statistically significant co-effects are observed for an unfiltered mixture of benzaldehyde and C60 that is more cytotoxic than benzaldehyde alone, and for a filtered mixture of m-cresol and C60 that is slightly less cytotoxic than m-cresol. Hydrophobicity of chemicals correlates with co-effects when secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1β and TNF-α is considered. Complementary atomistic molecular dynamics simulations reveal that C60 co-aggregates with all chemicals in aqueous environment. Stable aggregates have a fullerene-rich core and a chemical-rich surface layer, and while essentially all C60 molecules aggregate together, a portion of organic molecules remains in water.

Linking interseismic deformation with coseismic slip using dynamic rupture simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; He, B.; Weng, H.

2017-12-01

The largest earthquakes on earth occur at subduction zones, sometimes accompanied by devastating tsunamis. Reducing losses from megathrust earthquakes and tsunami demands accurate estimate of rupture scenarios for future earthquakes. Interseismic locking distribution derived from geodetic observations is often used to qualitatively evaluate future earthquake potential. However, how to quantitatively estimate the coseismic slip from the locking distribution remains challenging. Here we derive the coseismic rupture process of the 2012 Mw 7.6 Nicoya, Costa Rica, earthquake from interseismic locking distribution using spontaneous rupture simulation. We construct a three-dimensional elastic medium with a curved fault, which is governed by the linear slip-weakening law. The initial stress on the fault is set based on the build-up stress inferred from locking and the dynamic friction coefficient from fast-speed sliding experiments. Our numerical results of coseismic slip distribution, moment rate function and final earthquake moment are well consistent with those derived from seismic and geodetic observations. Furthermore, we find that the epicentral locations affect rupture scenarios and may lead to various sizes of earthquakes given the heterogeneous stress distribution. In the Nicoya region, less than half of rupture initiation regions where the locking degree is greater than 0.6 can develop into large earthquakes (Mw > 7.2). The results of location-dependent earthquake magnitudes underscore the necessity of conducting a large number of simulations to quantitatively evaluate seismic hazard from the interseismic locking models.

Technical Note: Linking climate change and downed woody debris decomposition across forests of the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Matthew B.; Woodall, Christopher W.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Fraver, Shawn; Bradford, John B.

2014-01-01

Forest ecosystems play a critical role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Forest carbon (C) is stored through photosynthesis and released via decomposition and combustion. Relative to C fixation in biomass, much less is known about C depletion through decomposition of woody debris, particularly under a changing climate. It is assumed that the increased temperatures and longer growing seasons associated with projected climate change will increase the decomposition rates (i.e., more rapid C cycling) of downed woody debris (DWD); however, the magnitude of this increase has not been previously addressed. Using DWD measurements collected from a national forest inventory of the eastern United States, we show that the residence time of DWD may decrease (i.e., more rapid decomposition) by as much as 13% over the next 200 years, depending on various future climate change scenarios and forest types. Although existing dynamic global vegetation models account for the decomposition process, they typically do not include the effect of a changing climate on DWD decomposition rates. We expect that an increased understanding of decomposition rates, as presented in this current work, will be needed to adequately quantify the fate of woody detritus in future forests. Furthermore, we hope these results will lead to improved models that incorporate climate change scenarios for depicting future dead wood dynamics in addition to a traditional emphasis on live-tree demographics.

Female mating preferences determine system-level evolution in a gene network model.

PubMed

Fierst, Janna L

2013-06-01

Environmental patterns of directional, stabilizing and fluctuating selection can influence the evolution of system-level properties like evolvability and mutational robustness. Intersexual selection produces strong phenotypic selection and these dynamics may also affect the response to mutation and the potential for future adaptation. In order to to assess the influence of mating preferences on these evolutionary properties, I modeled a male trait and female preference determined by separate gene regulatory networks. I studied three sexual selection scenarios: sexual conflict, a Gaussian model of the Fisher process described in Lande (in Proc Natl Acad Sci 78(6):3721-3725, 1981) and a good genes model in which the male trait signalled his mutational condition. I measured the effects these mating preferences had on the potential for traits and preferences to evolve towards new states, and mutational robustness of both the phenotype and the individual's overall viability. All types of sexual selection increased male phenotypic robustness relative to a randomly mating population. The Fisher model also reduced male evolvability and mutational robustness for viability. Under good genes sexual selection, males evolved an increased mutational robustness for viability. Females choosing their mates is a scenario that is sufficient to create selective forces that impact genetic evolution and shape the evolutionary response to mutation and environmental selection. These dynamics will inevitably develop in any population where sexual selection is operating, and affect the potential for future adaptation.

Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2015-04-01

In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

Designing water demand management schemes using a socio-technical modelling approach.

PubMed

Baki, Sotiria; Rozos, Evangelos; Makropoulos, Christos

2018-05-01

Although it is now widely acknowledged that urban water systems (UWSs) are complex socio-technical systems and that a shift towards a socio-technical approach is critical in achieving sustainable urban water management, still, more often than not, UWSs are designed using a segmented modelling approach. As such, either the analysis focuses on the description of the purely technical sub-system, without explicitly taking into account the system's dynamic socio-economic processes, or a more interdisciplinary approach is followed, but delivered through relatively coarse models, which often fail to provide a thorough representation of the urban water cycle and hence cannot deliver accurate estimations of the hydrosystem's responses. In this work we propose an integrated modelling approach for the study of the complete socio-technical UWS that also takes into account socio-economic and climatic variability. We have developed an integrated model, which is used to investigate the diffusion of household water conservation technologies and its effects on the UWS, under different socio-economic and climatic scenarios. The integrated model is formed by coupling a System Dynamics model that simulates the water technology adoption process, and the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) for the detailed simulation of the urban water cycle. The model and approach are tested and demonstrated in an urban redevelopment area in Athens, Greece under different socio-economic scenarios and policy interventions. It is suggested that the proposed approach can establish quantifiable links between socio-economic change and UWS responses and therefore assist decision makers in designing more effective and resilient long-term strategies for water conservation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Planetary Migration and Kuiper Belt Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malhotra, Renu

The Kuiper belt holds memory of the dynamical processes that shaped the architecture of the solar system, including the orbital migration history of the giant planets. We propose studies of the orbital dynamics of the Kuiper Belt in order to understand the origin of its complex dynamical structure and its link to the orbital migration history of the giant planets. By means of numerical simulations, statistical tests, as well as analytical calculations we will (1) investigate the origin of resonant Kuiper belt objects to test alternative scenarios of Neptune's migration history, (2) investigate the long term dynamical evolution of the Haumea family of Kuiper Belt objects in order to improve the age estimate of this family, and (3) investigate resonance-sticking behavior and the Kozai-Lidov mechanism and its role in the origin of the extended scattered disk. These studies directly support the goals of the NASA-OSS program by improving our understanding of the origin of the solar system's architecture. Our results will provide constraints on the nature and timing of the dynamical excitation event that is thought to have occurred in early solar system history and to have determined the architecture of the present-day solar system; our results will also provide deeper theoretical understanding of sticky mean motion resonances which contribute greatly to the longevity of many small bodies, improve our understanding of dynamical transport of planetesimals in planetary systems, and help interpret observations of other planetary systems.

The Importance of Explicitly Representing Soil Carbon with Depth over the Permafrost Region in Earth System Models: Implications for Atmospheric Carbon Dynamics at Multiple Temporal Scales between 1960 and 2300.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, A. D.

2014-12-01

We conducted an assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage simulated by process-based models between 1960 and 2300. The models participating in this comparison were those that had joined the model integration team of the Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (see http://www.biology.ufl.edu/permafrostcarbon/). Each of the models in this comparison conducted simulations over the permafrost land region in the Northern Hemisphere driven by CCSM4-simulated climate for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Among the models, the area of permafrost (defined as the area for which active layer thickness was less than 3 m) ranged between 13.2 and 20.0 million km2. Between 1960 and 2300, models indicated the loss of permafrost area between 5.1 to 6.0 million km2 for RCP 4.5 and between 7.1 and 15.2 million km2 for RCP 8.5. Among the models, the density of soil carbon storage in 1960 ranged between 13 and 42 thousand g C m-2; models that explicitly represented carbon with depth had estimates greater than 27 thousand g C m-2. For the RCP 4.5 scenario, changes in soil carbon between 1960 and 2300 ranged between losses of 32 Pg C to gains of 58 Pg C, in which models that explicitly represent soil carbon with depth simulated losses or lower gains of soil carbon in comparison with those that did not. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, changes in soil carbon between 1960 and 2300 ranged between losses of 642 Pg C to gains of 66 Pg C, in which those models that represent soil carbon explicitly with depth all simulated losses, while those that do not all simulated gains. These results indicate that there are substantial differences in responses of carbon dynamics between model that do and do not explicitly represent soil carbon with depth in the permafrost region. We present analyses of the implications of the differences for atmospheric carbon dynamics at multiple temporal scales between 1960 and 2300.

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

2018-05-01

The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for land change dynamics that can be applied in Earth system models and integrated assessment models.

Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

Assessing the economics of processing end-of-life vehicles through manual dismantling.

PubMed

Tian, Jin; Chen, Ming

2016-10-01

Most dismantling enterprises in a number of developing countries, such as China, usually adopt the "manual+mechanical" dismantling approach to process end-of-life vehicles. However, the automobile industry does not have a clear indicator to reasonably and effectively determine the manual dismantling degree for end-of-life vehicles. In this study, five different dismantling scenarios and an economic system for end-of-life vehicles were developed based on the actual situation of end-of-life vehicles. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was applied to set the weights of direct costs, indirect costs, and sales and to obtain an optimal manual dismantling scenario. Results showed that although the traditional method of "dismantling to the end" can guarantee the highest recycling rate, this method is not the best among all the scenarios. The profit gained in the optimal scenario is 100.6% higher than that in the traditional scenario. The optimal manual dismantling scenario showed that enterprises are required to select suitable parts to process through manual dismantling. Selecting suitable parts maximizes economic profit and improves dismantling speed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A DYNAMIC PHYSIOLOGICALLY-BASED TOXICOKINETIC (DPBTK) MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF COMPLEX TOLUENE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS IN HUMANS

EPA Science Inventory

A GENERAL PHYSIOLOGICAL AND TOXICOKINETIC (GPAT) MODEL FOR SIMULATION OF COMPLEX TOLUENE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS IN HUMANS. E M Kenyon1, T Colemen2, C R Eklund1 and V A Benignus3. 1U.S. EPA, ORD, NHEERL, ETD, PKB, RTP, NC, USA; 2Biological Simulators, Inc., Jackson MS, USA, 3U.S. EP...

Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network.

PubMed

Zarei, Esmaeil; Azadeh, Ali; Khakzad, Nima; Aliabadi, Mostafa Mirzaei; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-01-05

Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

1994-03-01

The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

Dynamics of stream water TOC concentrations in a boreal headwater catchment: Controlling factors and implications for climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, S. J.; Buffam, I.; Seibert, J.; Bishop, K. H.; Laudon, H.

2009-06-01

SummaryTwo different but complementary modelling approaches for reproducing the observed dynamics of total organic carbon (TOC) in a boreal stream are presented. One is based on a regression analysis, while the other is based on riparian soil conditions using a convolution of flow and concentration. Both approaches are relatively simple to establish and help to identify gaps in the process understanding of the TOC transport from soils to catchments runoff. The largest part of the temporal variation of stream TOC concentrations (4-46 mg L -1) in a forested headwater stream in the boreal zone in northern Sweden may be described using a four-parameter regression equation that has runoff and transformed air temperature as sole input variables. Runoff is assumed to be a proxy for soil wetness conditions and changing flow pathways which in turn caused most of the stream TOC variation. Temperature explained a significant part of the observed inter-annual variability. Long-term riparian hydrochemistry in soil solutions within 4 m of the stream also captures a surprisingly large part of the observed variation of stream TOC and highlights the importance of riparian soils. The riparian zone was used to reproduce stream TOC with the help of a convolution model based on flow and average riparian chemistry as input variables. There is a significant effect of wetting of the riparian soil that translates into a memory effect for subsequent episodes and thus contributes to controlling stream TOC concentrations. Situations with high flow introduce a large amount of variability into stream water TOC that may be related to memory effects, rapid groundwater fluctuations and other processes not identified so far. Two different climate scenarios for the region based on the IPCC scenarios were applied to the regression equation to test what effect the expected increase in precipitation and temperature and resulting changes in runoff would have on stream TOC concentrations assuming that the soil conditions remain unchanged. Both scenarios resulted in a mean increase of stream TOC concentrations of between 1.5 and 2.5 mg L -1 during the snow free season, which amounts to approximately 15% more TOC export compared to present conditions. Wetter and warmer conditions in the late autumn led to a difference of monthly average TOC of up to 5 mg L -1, suggesting that stream TOC may be particularly susceptible to climate variability during this season.

A simulation framework for mapping risks in clinical processes: the case of in-patient transfers.

PubMed

Dunn, Adam G; Ong, Mei-Sing; Westbrook, Johanna I; Magrabi, Farah; Coiera, Enrico; Wobcke, Wayne

2011-05-01

To model how individual violations in routine clinical processes cumulatively contribute to the risk of adverse events in hospital using an agent-based simulation framework. An agent-based simulation was designed to model the cascade of common violations that contribute to the risk of adverse events in routine clinical processes. Clinicians and the information systems that support them were represented as a group of interacting agents using data from direct observations. The model was calibrated using data from 101 patient transfers observed in a hospital and results were validated for one of two scenarios (a misidentification scenario and an infection control scenario). Repeated simulations using the calibrated model were undertaken to create a distribution of possible process outcomes. The likelihood of end-of-chain risk is the main outcome measure, reported for each of the two scenarios. The simulations demonstrate end-of-chain risks of 8% and 24% for the misidentification and infection control scenarios, respectively. Over 95% of the simulations in both scenarios are unique, indicating that the in-patient transfer process diverges from prescribed work practices in a variety of ways. The simulation allowed us to model the risk of adverse events in a clinical process, by generating the variety of possible work subject to violations, a novel prospective risk analysis method. The in-patient transfer process has a high proportion of unique trajectories, implying that risk mitigation may benefit from focusing on reducing complexity rather than augmenting the process with further rule-based protocols.

Quantifying Process-Based Mitigation Strategies in Historical Context: Separating Multiple Cumulative Effects on River Meander Migration

PubMed Central

Fremier, Alexander K.; Girvetz, Evan H.; Greco, Steven E.; Larsen, Eric W.

2014-01-01

Environmental legislation in the US (i.e. NEPA) requires defining baseline conditions on current rather than historical ecosystem conditions. For ecosystems with long histories of multiple environmental impacts, this baseline method can subsequently lead to a significantly altered environment; this has been termed a ‘sliding baseline’. In river systems, cumulative effects caused by flow regulation, channel revetment and riparian vegetation removal significantly impact floodplain ecosystems by altering channel dynamics and precluding subsequent ecosystem processes, such as primary succession. To quantify these impacts on floodplain development processes, we used a model of river channel meander migration to illustrate the degree to which flow regulation and riprap impact migration rates, independently and synergistically, on the Sacramento River in California, USA. From pre-dam conditions, the cumulative effect of flow regulation alone on channel migration is a reduction by 38%, and 42–44% with four proposed water diversion project scenarios. In terms of depositional area, the proposed water project would reduce channel migration 51–71 ha in 130 years without current riprap in place, and 17–25 ha with riprap. Our results illustrate the utility of a modeling approach for quantifying cumulative impacts. Model-based quantification of environmental impacts allow scientists to separate cumulative and synergistic effects to analytically define mitigation measures. Additionally, by selecting an ecosystem process that is affected by multiple impacts, it is possible to consider process-based mitigation scenarios, such as the removal of riprap, to allow meander migration and create new floodplains and allow for riparian vegetation recruitment. PMID:24964145

Using the Co-Production of Knowledge for Developing Realistic Natural Disaster Scenarios for Small-to-Medium Scale Emergency Management Exercises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, T.; Wilson, T. M.; Davies, T. R.; Orchiston, C.; Thompson, J.

2014-12-01

Disaster scenarios for Emergency Management (EM) exercises are a widely-used and effective tool for communicating hazard information to policy makers, EM personnel, lifelines operators and communities in general. It is crucial that the scenarios are as realistic as possible. Major disasters however, contain a series of cascading consequences, both environmental and social, which are difficult to model. Consequently, only recently have large-scale exercises included such processes; incorporating these in small- and medium-scale scenarios has yet to be attempted. This study details work undertaken in a recent medium-scale earthquake exercise in New Zealand to introduce such cascading processes into the disaster scenario. Given limited time, data, and funding, we show that the co-production of knowledge between natural disaster scientists, EM personnel, and governance and lifelines organisations can yield detailed, realistic scenarios. Using the co-production process, scenario development was able to identify where the pre-exercise state of knowledge was insufficient. This enabled a focussed research response driven by end-user needs. This found that in general, seismic hazard (ground shaking) and its likely impacts were well known and understood by all parties. However, subsequent landsliding and associated effects were poorly known and understood and their potential impacts unconsidered. Scenario development therefore focussed primarily on understanding these processes and their potential effects. This resulted in cascading hazards being included in a medium-scale NZ exercise for the first time. Further, all participants were able to focus on the potential impacts on their specific sectors, increasing the level of knowledge of cascading processes across all parties. Using group based discussions throughout the design process allowed a detailed scenario to be created, fostered stronger inter-disciplinary relationships, and identified areas for further research. Consequently, further detailed research has begun specifically into the impacts from secondary effects in an effort to further increase resilience to future events.

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

A System Dynamics Approach for the Selection of Contaminated Land Management Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKnight, U. S.; Kuebert, M.; Finkel, M.; Bieg, M.

2006-12-01

Large-scale contaminated land and groundwater is a widespread problem that can severely impact human health, the environment and the economy at many urban sites all over the world. Usually a considerable number of potential management solutions exist at each of these sites. A detailed investigation of all these options, however, is not economically feasible which makes streamlining of the planning and decision process a mandatory requirement. Decisions to be taken should be made as early as possible in order to reduce expenditures on site investigation. Therefore, a tiered decision-making procedure is required, including (i) identification and prioritization of focal areas of risks, (ii) feasibility screening of remediation targets and available management alternatives to narrow the range of possible options for (iii) subsequent detailed investigations of only a select group of preferable options. For each of these elements, tailored decision and investigation concepts are required. These concepts and applied methods should be specifically adapted to the type and scale of the particular decision to be taken- more target-oriented, cost-efficient investigation programs, as well as model-based assessment methods are needed (Ruegner et al. 2006). A gap exists within this framework with respect to preliminary assessment methodologies representing the first decision level. To fill this gap, a new system dynamics approach has been developed that represents the system of source- pathway-receptor sequences by means of a mass flux model. The dynamics are governed by the effects of possible remedial actions, which are described as mass flux change over time (Serapiglia et al. 2005). This approach has been implemented in the preliminary evaluation tool CARO-plus (Cost-efficiency Assessment of Remediation Options) that models the effects of potential remedial actions, including tackling the contaminant source and managing the groundwater plume. The model represents the causal relationships that exist between the state of the system, the effects of the technologies and their costs, and may considerably impact the outcome to be predicted. The tool enables a fast and effective "screening" of management scenarios using simplified approaches (analytical models). Replacing the concept of total cleanup of sites based on concentration standards, the evaluation tool contains risk modules that describe exposure pathways, i.e. transfer of contaminants from groundwater to the receptor "human being", in accordance to MEPAS (Strenge & Chamberlain 1995). As multiple lines of evidence may apply, the effects of remediation options can be analyzed on the basis of contaminant mass flux, concentrations, and/or risk indices (carcinogenic/noncarcinogenic). Costs are calculated in terms of net present values. Uncertainty is taken into account using Monte-Carlo sensitivity analyses. In the presentation, examples will be shown for how the proposed approach helps to pre-select compatible remediation options by giving an overview to the following set of questions: (i) what is the time scale for risks expected at a particular site, (ii) does the scenario reduce/control risk at the receptor, (iii) is the scenario compatible with cleanup objectives (e.g. in the case that concentration standards are still required for specific compounds present at a site), (iv) does the scenario satisfy cost objectives and can therefore be considered financially viable, (v) is the scenario acceptable to regulators and the community, and (vi) what factors are most critical to the decision-making process.

A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

PubMed

Almahayni, T

2014-12-01

The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DHM simulation in virtual environments: a case-study on control room design.

PubMed

Zamberlan, M; Santos, V; Streit, P; Oliveira, J; Cury, R; Negri, T; Pastura, F; Guimarães, C; Cid, G

2012-01-01

This paper will present the workflow developed for the application of serious games in the design of complex cooperative work settings. The project was based on ergonomic studies and development of a control room among participative design process. Our main concerns were the 3D human virtual representation acquired from 3D scanning, human interaction, workspace layout and equipment designed considering ergonomics standards. Using Unity3D platform to design the virtual environment, the virtual human model can be controlled by users on dynamic scenario in order to evaluate the new work settings and simulate work activities. The results obtained showed that this virtual technology can drastically change the design process by improving the level of interaction between final users and, managers and human factors team.

Processing and Monthly Summaries of Downscaled Climate Data for Knoxville, Tennessee and Surrounding Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sylvester, Linda; Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Parish, Esther S.

2016-09-01

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the City of Knoxville, Tennessee have partnered to work on a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project towards investigating climate change, mitigation, and adaptation measures in mid-sized cities. ORNL has statistically and dynamically downscaled ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) to both 1 km and 4 km resolutions. The processing and summary of those ten gridded datasets for use in a web-based tool is described. The summaries of each model are shown individually to assist in determining the similarities and differences between the model scenarios. The variables of minimum and maximum daily temperature andmore » total monthly precipitation are summarized for the area of Knoxville, Tennessee for the periods of 1980-2005 and 2025-2050.« less

Unconscious identification fantasies and family prehistory.

PubMed

de Mijolla, A

1987-01-01

Discovery of the fact that a subject identifies in an obvious way with another is at first only the awareness of a present process: involuntary mimesis, obedience to early 'identifying designations' or simple imitation deliberately carried out. Much psychic work remains to be done before we can think of such phenomena as 'screen-identifications'. The psychoanalytic interpretation of these dynamic formations will lead to the resolution of genuine 'identification complexes' through the reconstruction of scenarios which I have named 'unconscious identification fantasies'. These fantasies stage characters from the infantile prehistory and family saga of a subject who may be compelled to live out in his behaviour, symptoms, dreams, or even sometimes delusions, episodes pertaining to the past existence of the 'ego's visitors' linked to the most archaic processes that constitute the personality.

An approach for the anticipatory and participatory management of current and future flood risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luther, J.

2012-04-01

Despite the fact that many measures to attenuate flood hazards and reduce vulnerabilities are being implemented, adverse effects of floods are ever-increasing in most parts of the world. On the one hand this holds true for economically and/or demographically growing regions. On the other hand this applies also to areas that face population shrinkage and economic problems. Such flood risks occur in human-environment systems and are subject to dynamics caused by a number of drivers such as climate change, land-use changes, and others. Many drivers evolve slowly over time or show time-lag effects and long return periods. Moreover, certain decisions may determine the control actions of the following decades. At present, current flood risks are mostly determined based on historic developments and the ex post analysis of flood events. Approaches that look at the future dynamics of both hazards and vulnerable elements ex ante in an integrated manner are rare. Instead, future hazard scenarios are often just overlaid with current socio-economic data, which poses a strong inconsistency. Usually the focus lies on rather short-term, specific or local problems. But many developments and measures show their effects only after long time periods and when considering the whole catchment area. This calls for a holistic and long-term view into the future and implies the challenge of dealing with many uncertainties due to the system's complexity. In order to anticipate and react to these developments, this contribution suggests developing a flexible, yet holistic approach to design, analyse and evaluate alternative futures of such human-environment systems. These futures follow a scenario understanding that considers both specific (current) factor constellations as well as consistent assumptions on autonomous developments (so-called development frameworks) and potentials for control (strategic alternatives) of the interacting entities that influence flood risk. Different scenario concepts and the application of respective techniques are thus reviewed and incorporated with regard to their suitability for an integrated management of current and future flood risks. In particular, "hybrid scenarios" with qualitative and quantitative components represented by nested models as well as assumptions across different spatiotemporal scales, respectively, are suggested for dealing with the uncertainties when assessing flood risks throughout a system's possible evolution. The (initially top-down developed) approach and its components will be briefly presented. These "scenario products" could later serve as a stimulus for discussions that bring together different actors and enhance - and eventually legitimise - the scenarios further in a "scenario process": (1) A first step is the conceptualisation of a flood risk system following the SPRC-model. Its physical geographical and anthropogenic factors may either be subject to autonomous trends, target-oriented control, or facultative system behaviour (e.g. dike breaches). With this concept, the integration of different processes and scales is aspired. (2) Secondly, it is conceptually shown how the risk cascade for present and future states of the flood risk system can be calculated based on coupled models ranging from climate change projections to a damage simulation models. (3) Thirdly, ways to develop socioeconomic storylines for the development frameworks and guiding principles for the strategic alternatives are presented and the futures are combined. This involves making plausible and consistent assumptions for many system factors and their drivers and finding ways to harmonise existing data for the same areas and time steps. (4) Fourthly, selected futures can be analysed and evaluated ex ante applying the coupled models of the second step to derive the emerging flood risks. The evaluation addresses, amongst other aspects, the identification of (i) the sensitivity of all scenarios against the current strategic alternative; (ii) the resulting risks when applying different strategic alternatives against one selected scenario; (iii) the efficiency (as cost-effectiveness) and robustness of one selected strategic alternative against the different scenarios; and (iv) the model uncertainty, for example caused by different climate downscaling methods. It is of growing importance to place any scenario/simulation results in a societal or even individual context and confront them with the perspectives of the people potentially affected. Only this yields a holistic picture and may lead to sustainable, comprehensible decisions. The approach is partly exemplified with research conducted in Saxony (Germany) and the Elbe River catchment in Central Europe and concentrates on river or plain floods, neglecting water quality issues.

Tools and Techniques for Basin-Scale Climate Change Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagona, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Oakley, W.; Wilson, N.; Weinstein, P.; Verdin, A.; Jerla, C.; Prairie, J. R.

2012-12-01

The Department of Interior's WaterSMART Program seeks to secure and stretch water supplies to benefit future generations and identify adaptive measures to address climate change. Under WaterSMART, Basin Studies are comprehensive water studies to explore options for meeting projected imbalances in water supply and demand in specific basins. Such studies could be most beneficial with application of recent scientific advances in climate projections, stochastic simulation, operational modeling and robust decision-making, as well as computational techniques to organize and analyze many alternatives. A new integrated set of tools and techniques to facilitate these studies includes the following components: Future supply scenarios are produced by the Hydrology Simulator, which uses non-parametric K-nearest neighbor resampling techniques to generate ensembles of hydrologic traces based on historical data, optionally conditioned on long paleo reconstructed data using various Markov Chain techniuqes. Resampling can also be conditioned on climate change projections from e.g., downscaled GCM projections to capture increased variability; spatial and temporal disaggregation is also provided. The simulations produced are ensembles of hydrologic inputs to the RiverWare operations/infrastucture decision modeling software. Alternative demand scenarios can be produced with the Demand Input Tool (DIT), an Excel-based tool that allows modifying future demands by groups such as states; sectors, e.g., agriculture, municipal, energy; and hydrologic basins. The demands can be scaled at future dates or changes ramped over specified time periods. Resulting data is imported directly into the decision model. Different model files can represent infrastructure alternatives and different Policy Sets represent alternative operating policies, including options for noticing when conditions point to unacceptable vulnerabilities, which trigger dynamically executing changes in operations or other options. The over-arching Study Manager provides a graphical tool to create combinations of future supply scenarios, demand scenarios, infrastructure and operating policy alternatives; each scenario is executed as an ensemble of RiverWare runs, driven by the hydrologic supply. The Study Manager sets up and manages multiple executions on multi-core hardware. The sizeable are typically direct model outputs, or post-processed indicators of performance based on model outputs. Post processing statistical analysis of the outputs are possible using the Graphical Policy Analysis Tool or other statistical packages. Several Basin Studies undertaken have used RiverWare to evaluate future scenarios. The Colorado River Basin Study, the most complex and extensive to date, has taken advantage of these tools and techniques to generate supply scenarios, produce alternative demand scenarios and to set up and execute the many combinations of supplies, demands, policies, and infrastructure alternatives. The tools and techniques will be described with example applications.

Parameter Estimation in Atmospheric Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wenig, Mark; Colarco, Peter

2004-01-01

In this study the structure tensor technique is used to estimate dynamical parameters in atmospheric data sets. The structure tensor is a common tool for estimating motion in image sequences. This technique can be extended to estimate other dynamical parameters such as diffusion constants or exponential decay rates. A general mathematical framework was developed for the direct estimation of the physical parameters that govern the underlying processes from image sequences. This estimation technique can be adapted to the specific physical problem under investigation, so it can be used in a variety of applications in trace gas, aerosol, and cloud remote sensing. As a test scenario this technique will be applied to modeled dust data. In this case vertically integrated dust concentrations were used to derive wind information. Those results can be compared to the wind vector fields which served as input to the model. Based on this analysis, a method to compute atmospheric data parameter fields will be presented. .

Dynamic Resource Allocation in Disaster Response: Tradeoffs in Wildfire Suppression

PubMed Central

Petrovic, Nada; Alderson, David L.; Carlson, Jean M.

2012-01-01

Challenges associated with the allocation of limited resources to mitigate the impact of natural disasters inspire fundamentally new theoretical questions for dynamic decision making in coupled human and natural systems. Wildfires are one of several types of disaster phenomena, including oil spills and disease epidemics, where (1) the disaster evolves on the same timescale as the response effort, and (2) delays in response can lead to increased disaster severity and thus greater demand for resources. We introduce a minimal stochastic process to represent wildfire progression that nonetheless accurately captures the heavy tailed statistical distribution of fire sizes observed in nature. We then couple this model for fire spread to a series of response models that isolate fundamental tradeoffs both in the strength and timing of response and also in division of limited resources across multiple competing suppression efforts. Using this framework, we compute optimal strategies for decision making scenarios that arise in fire response policy. PMID:22514605

First stage of LISA data processing. II. Alternative filtering dynamic models for LISA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yan; Heinzel, Gerhard; Danzmann, Karsten

2015-08-01

Space-borne gravitational wave detectors, such as (e)LISA, are designed to operate in the low-frequency band (mHz to Hz), where there is a variety of gravitational wave sources of great scientific value [arXiv:1305.5720 and S. Babak et al., Classical Quantum Gravity 28, 114001 (2011)]. To achieve the extraordinary sensitivity of these detectors, the precise synchronization of the clocks on the separate spacecraft and the accurate determination of the interspacecraft distances are important ingredients. In our previous paper [Y. Wang et al., Phys. Rev. D 90, 064016 (2014)], we have described a hybrid-extend Kalman filter with a full state vector to do this job. In this paper, we explore several different state vectors and their corresponding (phenomenological) dynamic models to reduce the redundancy in the full state vector, to accelerate the algorithm, and to make the algorithm easily extendable to more complicated scenarios.

Head-on collision of multistate ultralight BEC dark matter configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzmán, F. S.; Avilez, Ana A.

2018-06-01

Density profiles of ultralight Bose-condensate dark matter inferred from numerical simulations of structure formation, ruled by the Gross-Pitaevskii-Poisson (GPP) system of equations, have a core-tail structure. Multistate equilibrium configurations of the GPP system, on the other hand, have a similar core-tail density profile. We now submit these multistate configurations to highly dynamical scenarios and show their potential as providers of appropriate density profiles of structures. We present the simulation of head-on collisions between two equilibrium configurations of the GPP system of equations, including the collision of ground state with multistate configurations. We study the regimes of solitonic and merger behavior and show generic properties of the dynamics of the system, including the relaxation process and attractor density profiles. We show that the merger of multistate configurations has the potential to produce core-tail density profiles, with the core dominated by the ground state and the halo dominated by an additional state.

Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A; Mellin, Camille; Russell, Bayden D; Akçakaya, Reşit H; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Caley, Julian M; Connell, Sean D; Mayfield, Stephen; Shepherd, Scoresby A; Brook, Barry W

2013-10-01

Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the value of surface saturated area dynamics mapped with thermal infrared imagery for modeling the hillslope-riparian-stream continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glaser, Barbara; Klaus, Julian; Frei, Sven; Frentress, Jay; Pfister, Laurent; Hopp, Luisa

2016-10-01

The highly dynamic processes within a hillslope-riparian-stream (HRS) continuum are known to affect streamflow generation, but are yet not fully understood. Within this study, we simulated a headwater HRS continuum in western Luxembourg with an integrated hydrologic surface subsurface model (HydroGeoSphere). The model was setup with thorough consideration of catchment-specific attributes and we performed a multicriteria model evaluation (4 years) with special focus on the temporally varying spatial patterns of surface saturation. We used a portable thermal infrared (TIR) camera to map surface saturation with a high spatial resolution and collected 20 panoramic snapshots of the riparian zone (approx. 10 m × 20 m) under different hydrologic conditions. Qualitative and quantitative comparison of the processed TIR panoramas and the corresponding model output panoramas revealed a good agreement between spatiotemporal dynamic model and field surface saturation patterns. A double logarithmic linear relationship between surface saturation extent and discharge was similar for modeled and observed data. This provided confidence in the capability of an integrated hydrologic surface subsurface model to represent temporal and spatial water flux dynamics at small (HRS continuum) scales. However, model scenarios with different parameterizations of the riparian zone showed that discharge and surface saturation were controlled by different parameters and hardly influenced each other. Surface saturation only affected very fast runoff responses with a small volumetric contribution to stream discharge, indicating that the dynamic surface saturation in the riparian zone does not necessarily imply a major control on runoff generation.

Integrated assessment and scenarios simulation of urban water security system in the southwest of China with system dynamics analysis.

PubMed

Yin, Su; Dongjie, Guan; Weici, Su; Weijun, Gao

2017-11-01

The demand for global freshwater is growing, while global freshwater available for human use is limited within a certain time and space. Its security has significant impacts on both the socio-economic system and ecological system. Recently, studies have focused on the urban water security system (UWSS) in terms of either water quantity or water quality. In this study, water resources, water environment, and water disaster issues in the UWSS were combined to establish an evaluation index system with system dynamics (SD) and geographic information systems (GIS). The GIS method performs qualitative analysis from the perspective of the spatial dimension; meanwhile, the SD method performs quantitative calculation about related water security problems from the perspective of the temporal dimension. We established a UWSS model for Guizhou province, China to analyze influencing factors, main driving factors, and system variation law, by using the SD method. We simulated the water security system from 2005 to 2025 under four scenarios (Guiyang scenario, Zunyi scenario, Bijie scenario and combined scenario). The results demonstrate that: (1) the severity of water security in cities is ranked as follows: three cities are secure in Guizhou province, four cities are in basic security and two cities are in a situation of insecurity from the spatial dimension of GIS through water security synthesis; and (2) the major driving factors of UWSS in Guizhou province include agricultural irrigation water demand, soil and water losses area, a ratio increase to the standard of water quality, and investment in environmental protection. A combined scenario is the best solution for UWSS by 2025 in Guizhou province under the four scenarios from the temporal dimension of SD. The results of this study provide a useful suggestion for the management of freshwater for the cities of Guizhou province in southwest China.

Influence of vegetation dynamic modeling on the allocation of green and blue waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Pérez, Guiomar; Francés, Félix

2015-04-01

The long history of the Mediterranean region is dominated by the interactions and co-evolution between man and its natural environment. It is important to consider that the Mediterranean region is recurrently or permanently confronted with the scarcity of the water. The issue of climate change is (and will be) aggravating this situation. This raises the question of a loss of services that ecosystems provide to human and also the amount of available water to be used by vegetation. The question of the water cycle, therefore, should be considered in an integrated manner by taking into account both blue water (water in liquid form used for the human needs or which flows into the oceans) and green water (water having the vapor for resulting from evaporation and transpiration processes). In spite of this, traditionally, very few hydrological models have incorporated the vegetation dynamic as a state variable. In fact, most of them are able to represent fairly well the observed discharge, but usually including the vegetation as a static parameter. However, in the last decade, the number of hydrological models which explicitly take into account the vegetation development as a state variable has increased substantially. In this work, we want to analyze if it is really necessary to use a dynamic vegetation model to quantify adequately the distribution of water into blue and green water. The study site is located in the Public Forest Monte de la Hunde y Palomeras (Spain). The vegetation in the study area is dominated by Aleppo pine of high tree density with scant presence of other species. Two different daily models were applied (with static and dynamic vegetation representation respectively) in three different scenarios: dry year (2005), normal year (2008) and wet year (2010). The static vegetation model simulates the evapotranspiration considering the vegetation as a stationary parameter. Contrarily, the dynamic vegetation model connects the hydrological model with a parsimonious dynamic vegetation sub-model which assumes the vegetation biomass as a state variable. Using both models, we estimated the amount of 'blue' water and the amount of 'green' water (according to the previous definitions) in each scenario. Comparing the results, we observed that the static model underestimated the amount of green water in any case (dry, normal or wet year). In fact, the value of the ratio between blue and green water is higher in all scenarios for the static option (0.23 in the dry year, 0.42 in the normal year and 0.96 in the wet year) than the obtained ones for the dynamic model (0.098, 0.29 and 0.76, respectively). It means that we are overestimating the amount of water available for human needs if we assume vegetation as static. This type of error can be very dangerous for water resources predictions with future climates, especially in Mediterranean areas due to their water scarcity.

Scenarios to prioritize observing activities on the North Slope, Alaska in the context of resource development, climate change and socio-economic uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.; Lassuy, D.

2014-12-01

The North Slope of Alaska is experiencing rapid changes in response to interacting climate and socioeconomic drivers. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is using scenarios as a tool to identify plausible, spatially explicit future states of resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through the year 2040. The objective of the scenarios process is to strategically assess research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The participatory scenarios process involved stakeholder input (including Federal, State, local, academic, industry and non-profit representatives) to identify key drivers of change related to resource extraction activities on the North Slope. While climate change was identified as a key driver in the biophysical system, economic drivers related to oil and gas development were also important. Expert-reviewed informational materials were developed to help stakeholders obtain baseline knowledge and stimulate discussions about interactions between drivers, knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Map-based scenario products will allow mission-oriented agencies to jointly explore where to prioritize research investments and address risk in a complex, changing environment. Scenarios consider multidecadal timescales. However, tracking of indicator variables derived from scenarios can lead to important insights about the trajectory of the North Slope social-environmental system and inform management decisions to reduce risk on much shorter timescales. The inclusion of stakeholders helps provide a broad spectrum of expert viewpoints necessary for considering the range of plausible scenarios. A well-defined focal question, transparency in the participation process and continued outreach about the utility and limitations of scenarios are also important components of the scenarios process.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, Aiman; Laguna, Ignacio; Sato, Kento

Future high-performance computing systems may face frequent failures with their rapid increase in scale and complexity. Resilience to faults has become a major challenge for large-scale applications running on supercomputers, which demands fault tolerance support for prevalent MPI applications. Among failure scenarios, process failures are one of the most severe issues as they usually lead to termination of applications. However, the widely used MPI implementations do not provide mechanisms for fault tolerance. We propose FTA-MPI (Fault Tolerance Assistant MPI), a programming model that provides support for failure detection, failure notification and recovery. Specifically, FTA-MPI exploits a try/catch model that enablesmore » failure localization and transparent recovery of process failures in MPI applications. We demonstrate FTA-MPI with synthetic applications and a molecular dynamics code CoMD, and show that FTA-MPI provides high programmability for users and enables convenient and flexible recovery of process failures.« less

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

2008-01-01

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

The Astrophysical r-Process 50 Years after B{sup 2}FH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kratz, K.-L.; Pfeiffer, B.; Farouqi, K.

Since the historical papers by Burbidge et al. and Cameron 50 years ago, it is generally accepted that half of the chemical elements above Fe are formed in explosive stellar scenarios by a rapid neutron-capture process (the classical ''r-process''). Already from their essential ideas, it became clear that a correct modelling of this nucleosynthesis process requires both, the knowledge of various nuclear properties very far from stability and a detailed description of the astrophysical environments. However, it took about three decades, until in 1986 the first experimental nuclear-physics data on the neutron-magic r-isotopes {sup 80}Zn and {sup 130}Cd could bemore » obtained, which act as key ''waiting points'' in the respective A{approx_equal}80 and 130 peaks of the Solar-System (SS) r-abundances (N{sub r,{center_dot}}). Since then, using steadily improved nuclear data, we have optimized our r-process calculations to reproduce the present observables of the isotopic N{sub r,{center_dot}} ''residuals'', as well as the more recent elemental abundances in ultra-metal-poor, r-process-enriched halo stars. Concerning the latter observations, we support the basic idea about two different types of r-processes. Based on our many years' experience with the site-independent ''waiting-point approach'', we recently have extended our studies to fully dynamical network calculations for the most likely astrophysical r-process scenario, i.e. the high-entropy wind (HEW) of core-collapse type II supernovae (SN II). Again, an excellent reproduction of all observables for the ''main'' r-process has been achieved. However, a major difference is the nucleosynthesis origin of the lighter heavy elements in the 29{<=}Z{<=}45 mass region. Here, the HEW model predicts-instead of a ''weak'' neutron-capture r-process component-a primary rapid charged-particle process. This may explain the recent observations of a non-correlation of these elements with the heavier ''main'' r-process elements.« less

TDDFT investigation of excitation of water tetramer under femtosecond laser pulse irradiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhiping; Xu, Xuefen; Zhang, Fengshou; Qian, Chaoyi

2018-04-01

We study the static properties of water tetramer in ground state, the optical absorption spectra and ultrafast nonadiabatic dynamical response of water tetramer to short and intense laser pulses with different intensities by a real-space, real-time implementation of time-dependent density functional theory coupled to molecular dynamics (TDDFT-MD) nonadiabatically. The calculated results are in good agreement with available values in literature. Four typical irradiated scenarios of water tetramer in laser field, which are “normal vibration,” “break and reorganization,” “fragmentation and new formation” and “pure fragmentation”, are explored by discussing the ionization, the bond lengths of OH bonds and hydrogen bonds and the kinetic energy of ions. The dynamic simulation shows that the reaction channel of water tetramer can really be controlled by choosing appropriate laser parameters referring to the optical absorption spectra and hydrogen ions play an important role in the reaction channel. Furthermore, it is found that the laser intensity affects the kinetic energy of ejected protons more than that of the remaining fragments and all dynamic processes are somehow directly related to the velocity of departing protons.

Public goods games in populations with fluctuating size.

PubMed

McAvoy, Alex; Fraiman, Nicolas; Hauert, Christoph; Wakeley, John; Nowak, Martin A

2018-05-01

Many mathematical frameworks of evolutionary game dynamics assume that the total population size is constant and that selection affects only the relative frequency of strategies. Here, we consider evolutionary game dynamics in an extended Wright-Fisher process with variable population size. In such a scenario, it is possible that the entire population becomes extinct. Survival of the population may depend on which strategy prevails in the game dynamics. Studying cooperative dilemmas, it is a natural feature of such a model that cooperators enable survival, while defectors drive extinction. Although defectors are favored for any mixed population, random drift could lead to their elimination and the resulting pure-cooperator population could survive. On the other hand, if the defectors remain, then the population will quickly go extinct because the frequency of cooperators steadily declines and defectors alone cannot survive. In a mutation-selection model, we find that (i) a steady supply of cooperators can enable long-term population survival, provided selection is sufficiently strong, and (ii) selection can increase the abundance of cooperators but reduce their relative frequency. Thus, evolutionary game dynamics in populations with variable size generate a multifaceted notion of what constitutes a trait's long-term success. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An analytical Study on Dynamics of Public Procurement System and Bidding-Strategy in Local Contractor's Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ninomiya, Hitoshi; Nanerikawa, Susumu

Public procurement system such as Overall-Evaluation dynamically has been changed on local public works in Japan. However some characteristics of Bidding-Strategy and procurement system have not enough clarified. This paper attempt to analysis for a syatem dynamics and mechanisum of Overall-Evaluation by developing new simulation model focused on Bidding-Strategy, to propose some improvement scenario.

Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Control Technology Options within the Energy, Water and Food Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Ansari, Tareq; Korre, Anna; Nie, Zhenggang; Shah, Nilay

2015-04-01

The utilisation of Energy, Water and Food (EWF) resources can be described as a nexus of complex linkages embodied in industrial and natural processes. Food production is one such example of a system that mobilises EWF resources to deliver a product which is highly influenced by the efficiency of the industrial processes contributing to it and the conditions of the surrounding natural environment. Aggregating the utilisation of EWF resources into interconnected sub-systems is necessary for the accurate representation of the system's dynamics in terms of its material flow and resource consumption. The methodology used in this study is an extension of previous work developed regarding nexus analysis (Al-Ansari et al. 2014a, Al-Ansari et al. 2014b). Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to prepare detailed models of the sub-system components, determine the linkages between the different nexus constituents and evaluate impacts on the natural environment. The nexus system is comprised of water sub-systems represented by a reverse osmosis (RO) desalination process. Energy sub-systems for power generation include models for a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and solar Photovoltaics (PV) energy generation, as well as an amine based CO2 capture process enabling the utilisation of CO2 for the artificial fertilization of crops. The agricultural sub-systems include the production and application of fertilizers and the raising of livestock. A biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) for power generation using waste manure from the livestock sub-system is also included. The objective of this study is to consider a conventional food system in Qatar and enhance its environmental performance by using a nexus approach to examine different scenarios and operating modes. For the Qatar case study, three scenarios and four modes of operation were developed as part of the analysis. The baseline scenario uses fossil fuel to power the entire EWF nexus system using CCGT, the second scenario integrates PV to power the RO units and the third scenario uses solar PV to power the RO and fertilizer production facilities. The second operating mode integrates the BIGCC for power generation and the third mode utilises the gasification by-product biochar for the enhancement of agricultural productivity in addition to the power generated from the BIGCC. The final mode of operation examines the use of CO2 capture technology in the baseline scenario to support fertilization resulting in productivity increases for crops. References: Al-Ansari, T., Korre, A., Nie, Z., Shah, N., "Development of a life cycle assessment model for the analysis of the energy, water and food nexus" Computer Aided Chemical Engineering, 33, (2014), 1039-1044. Al-Ansari, T., Korre, A., Nie, Z., Shah, N., Integrated Modelling of the Energy, Water and Food Nexus to Enhance the Environmental Performance of Food Production Systems, 9th International Conference LCA of Food, San Francisco, USA, 8 - 10 October 2014

Non-singular Brans–Dicke collapse in deformed phase space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rasouli, S.M.M., E-mail: mrasouli@ubi.pt; Centro de Matemática e Aplicações; Physics Group, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin

2016-12-15

We study the collapse process of a homogeneous perfect fluid (in FLRW background) with a barotropic equation of state in Brans–Dicke (BD) theory in the presence of phase space deformation effects. Such a deformation is introduced as a particular type of non-commutativity between phase space coordinates. For the commutative case, it has been shown in the literature (Scheel, 1995), that the dust collapse in BD theory leads to the formation of a spacetime singularity which is covered by an event horizon. In comparison to general relativity (GR), the authors concluded that the final state of black holes in BD theorymore » is identical to the GR case but differs from GR during the dynamical evolution of the collapse process. However, the presence of non-commutative effects influences the dynamics of the collapse scenario and consequently a non-singular evolution is developed in the sense that a bounce emerges at a minimum radius, after which an expanding phase begins. Such a behavior is observed for positive values of the BD coupling parameter. For large positive values of the BD coupling parameter, when non-commutative effects are present, the dynamics of collapse process differs from the GR case. Finally, we show that for negative values of the BD coupling parameter, the singularity is replaced by an oscillatory bounce occurring at a finite time, with the frequency of oscillation and amplitude being damped at late times.« less

Inference for dynamics of continuous variables: the extended Plefka expansion with hidden nodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bravi, B.; Sollich, P.

2017-06-01

We consider the problem of a subnetwork of observed nodes embedded into a larger bulk of unknown (i.e. hidden) nodes, where the aim is to infer these hidden states given information about the subnetwork dynamics. The biochemical networks underlying many cellular and metabolic processes are important realizations of such a scenario as typically one is interested in reconstructing the time evolution of unobserved chemical concentrations starting from the experimentally more accessible ones. We present an application to this problem of a novel dynamical mean field approximation, the extended Plefka expansion, which is based on a path integral description of the stochastic dynamics. As a paradigmatic model we study the stochastic linear dynamics of continuous degrees of freedom interacting via random Gaussian couplings. The resulting joint distribution is known to be Gaussian and this allows us to fully characterize the posterior statistics of the hidden nodes. In particular the equal-time hidden-to-hidden variance—conditioned on observations—gives the expected error at each node when the hidden time courses are predicted based on the observations. We assess the accuracy of the extended Plefka expansion in predicting these single node variances as well as error correlations over time, focussing on the role of the system size and the number of observed nodes.

The Effects of Ecoregion Dynamics on Agroregions for Permanent Crops in the Continental US Under Future Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maddalena, D. M.; L'Heureux, J.; Hoffman, F. M.

2017-12-01

Fruit and Tree Nut production in the US averaged 14% of total annual production, or roughly $28 billion in total revenue for the most recent 5 year period (2011 - 2015). The success of these crops is highly dependent on environmental conditions. Cold snaps before winter dormancy, early frosts in spring, and lack of sufficient chilling hours can reduce productivity, inflict wood damage, and lead to economic loss. Climate change can increase the likelihood of these threats and may have long-term implications for the areas where these crops are grown due to the migration of ecoregions as climate patters shift. We delineate ecoregions using multi-attribute spatio-temporal clustering and calculate chilling unit accumulation under past, present, and future climate scenarios using measured and modeled data. These results are then compared to current agroregions in the US to calculate risk dynamics, potential economic loss, and to map future agroregion scenarios. Our results offer considerations for food system sustainability under a shifting climate.