Science.gov

Sample records for production economic models

  1. A Simple Economic Model of Cocaine Production

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-01-01

    the current state of the cocaine market that are used to parameterize the model. The results of a set of simulations of the model are then presented...and they lead to the following conclusions "Crop substitutionW programs will have a negligible impact on the world cocaine market . As desirable for...strategies that seize and destroy 70 percent or less of production, without limiting the total level of production, will have little impact on the market . If

  2. A Simple Economic Model of Cocaine Production

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-01-01

    insignificant; in fiscal year 1991 these programs received about $500 million, out of a total federal drug control budget of $10.6 billion. They have...been important, often dominant, in U.S. relationships with the Andean region and, at times, with Burma, Mexico , Pakistan, and Turkey. The effort to...control drug production overseas has generally been viewed as ineffective. Mexico , the most cooperative of the source countries, continues to produce

  3. Economic analysis and assessment of syngas production using a modeling approach

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Hakkwan; Parajuli, Prem B.; Yu, Fei; Columbus, Eugene P.

    2011-08-10

    Economic analysis and modeling are essential and important issues for the development of current feedstock and process technology for bio-gasification. The objective of this study was to develop an economic model and apply to predict the unit cost of syngas production from a micro-scale bio-gasification facility. An economic model was programmed in C++ computer programming language and developed using a parametric cost approach, which included processes to calculate the total capital costs and the total operating costs. The model used measured economic data from the bio-gasification facility at Mississippi State University. The modeling results showed that the unit cost of syngas production was $1.217 for a 60 Nm-3 h-1 capacity bio-gasifier. The operating cost was the major part of the total production cost. The equipment purchase cost and the labor cost were the largest part of the total capital cost and the total operating cost, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that labor costs rank the top as followed by equipment cost, loan life, feedstock cost, interest rate, utility cost, and waste treatment cost. The unit cost of syngas production increased with the increase of all parameters with exception of loan life. The annual cost regarding equipment, labor, feedstock, waste treatment, and utility cost showed a linear relationship with percent changes, while loan life and annual interest rate showed a non-linear relationship. This study provides the useful information for economic analysis and assessment of the syngas production using a modeling approach.

  4. From Commodity Production to Sign Production: A Triple Triangle Model for Marx's Semiotics and Peirce's Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Joohoan

    Using the viewpoint of semiotics, this paper "re-reads" Karl Marx's labor theory of value and suggests a "triple triangle" model for commodity production and shows how this model could be a model for semiosis in general. The paper argues that there are three advantages to considering homogeneity of the sign production and the…

  5. Economics of stocker production.

    PubMed

    Peel, Derrell S

    2006-07-01

    The beef cattle industry, like any industry, is subject to economic signals to increase or decrease production according to short-run and long-run market conditions. Profitable stocker production is the result of careful matching of economic conditions to alternative animal production systems combined with sound animal and business management. The economics of stocker production are driven by the feeder cattle price-weight relation that combines broad market signals about how much production is needed with complex and subtle signals about how that production should be accomplished. The result is a dynamic set of values of gain that direct producers to adjust the level, type, and timing of stocker production according to changing market conditions.

  6. An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Hill, R. M.

    1978-01-01

    A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet.

  7. Process model and economic analysis of ethanol production from sugar beet raw juice as part of the cleaner production concept.

    PubMed

    Vučurović, Damjan G; Dodić, Siniša N; Popov, Stevan D; Dodić, Jelena M; Grahovac, Jovana A

    2012-01-01

    The batch fermentation process of sugar beet processing intermediates by free yeast cells is the most widely used method in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina for producing ethanol as fuel. In this study a process and cost model was developed for producing ethanol from raw juice. The model can be used to calculate capital investment costs, unit production costs and operating costs for a plant producing 44 million l of 99.6% pure ethanol annually. In the sensitivity analysis the influence of sugar beet and yeast price, as well as the influence of recycled biomass on process economics, ethanol production costs and project feasibility was examined. The results of this study clearly demonstrate that the raw material costs have a significant influence on the expenses for producing ethanol. Also, the optimal percentage of recycled biomass turned out to be in the range from 50% to 70%.

  8. Comparative Research Productivity Measures for Economic Departments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huettner, David A.; Clark, William

    1997-01-01

    Develops a simple theoretical model to evaluate interdisciplinary differences in research productivity between economics departments and related subjects. Compares the research publishing statistics of economics, finance, psychology, geology, physics, oceanography, chemistry, and geophysics. Considers a number of factors including journal…

  9. Applying complex models to poultry production in the future--economics and biology.

    PubMed

    Talpaz, H; Cohen, M; Fancher, B; Halley, J

    2013-09-01

    The ability to determine the optimal broiler feed nutrient density that maximizes margin over feeding cost (MOFC) has obvious economic value. To determine optimal feed nutrient density, one must consider ingredient prices, meat values, the product mix being marketed, and the projected biological performance. A series of 8 feeding trials was conducted to estimate biological responses to changes in ME and amino acid (AA) density. Eight different genotypes of sex-separate reared broilers were fed diets varying in ME (2,723-3,386 kcal of ME/kg) and AA (0.89-1.65% digestible lysine with all essential AA acids being indexed to lysine) levels. Broilers were processed to determine carcass component yield at many different BW (1.09-4.70 kg). Trial data generated were used in model constructed to discover the dietary levels of ME and AA that maximize MOFC on a per broiler or per broiler annualized basis (bird × number of cycles/year). The model was designed to estimate the effects of dietary nutrient concentration on broiler live weight, feed conversion, mortality, and carcass component yield. Estimated coefficients from the step-wise regression process are subsequently used to predict the optimal ME and AA concentrations that maximize MOFC. The effects of changing feed or meat prices across a wide spectrum on optimal ME and AA levels can be evaluated via parametric analysis. The model can rapidly compare both biological and economic implications of changing from current practice to the simulated optimal solution. The model can be exploited to enhance decision making under volatile market conditions.

  10. Intermediate inputs and economic productivity.

    PubMed

    Baptist, Simon; Hepburn, Cameron

    2013-03-13

    Many models of economic growth exclude materials, energy and other intermediate inputs from the production function. Growing environmental pressures and resource prices suggest that this may be increasingly inappropriate. This paper explores the relationship between intermediate input intensity, productivity and national accounts using a panel dataset of manufacturing subsectors in the USA over 47 years. The first contribution is to identify sectoral production functions that incorporate intermediate inputs, while allowing for heterogeneity in both technology and productivity. The second contribution is that the paper finds a negative correlation between intermediate input intensity and total factor productivity (TFP)--sectors that are less intensive in their use of intermediate inputs have higher productivity. This finding is replicated at the firm level. We propose tentative hypotheses to explain this association, but testing and further disaggregation of intermediate inputs is left for further work. Further work could also explore more directly the relationship between material inputs and economic growth--given the high proportion of materials in intermediate inputs, the results in this paper are suggestive of further work on material efficiency. Depending upon the nature of the mechanism linking a reduction in intermediate input intensity to an increase in TFP, the implications could be significant. A third contribution is to suggest that an empirical bias in productivity, as measured in national accounts, may arise due to the exclusion of intermediate inputs. Current conventions of measuring productivity in national accounts may overstate the productivity of resource-intensive sectors relative to other sectors.

  11. Breeding objectives for pigs in Kenya. I: bio-economic model development and application to smallholder production systems.

    PubMed

    Mbuthia, Jackson M; Rewe, Thomas O; Kahi, Alexander K

    2015-02-01

    A deterministic bio-economic model was developed and applied to evaluate biological and economic variables that characterize smallholder pig production systems in Kenya. Two pig production systems were considered namely, semi-intensive (SI) and extensive (EX). The input variables were categorized into biological variables including production and functional traits, nutritional variables, management variables and economic variables. The model factored the various sow physiological systems including gestation, farrowing, lactation, growth and development. The model was developed to evaluate a farrow to finish operation, but the results were customized to account for a farrow to weaner operation for a comparative analysis. The operations were defined as semi-intensive farrow to finish (SIFF), semi-intensive farrow to weaner (SIFW), extensive farrow to finish (EXFF) and extensive farrow to weaner (EXFW). In SI, the profits were the highest at KES. 74,268.20 per sow per year for SIFF against KES. 4026.12 for SIFW. The corresponding profits for EX were KES. 925.25 and KES. 626.73. Feed costs contributed the major part of the total costs accounting for 67.0, 50.7, 60.5 and 44.5 % in the SIFF, SIFW, EXFF and EXFW operations, respectively. The bio-economic model developed could be extended with modifications for use in deriving economic values for breeding goal traits for pigs under smallholder production systems in other parts of the tropics.

  12. Biofuel Crops Expansion: Evaluating the Impact on the Agricultural Water Scarcity Costs and Hydropower Production with Hydro Economic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marques, G.

    2015-12-01

    Biofuels such as ethanol from sugar cane remain an important element to help mitigate the impacts of fossil fuels on the atmosphere. However, meeting fuel demands with biofuels requires technological advancement for water productivity and scale of production. This may translate into increased water demands for biofuel crops and potential for conflicts with incumbent crops and other water uses including domestic, hydropower generation and environmental. It is therefore important to evaluate the effects of increased biofuel production on the verge of water scarcity costs and hydropower production. The present research applies a hydro-economic optimization model to compare different scenarios of irrigated biofuel and hydropower production, and estimates the potential tradeoffs. A case study from the Araguari watershed in Brazil is provided. These results should be useful to (i) identify improved water allocation among competing economic demands, (ii) support water management and operations decisions in watersheds where biofuels are expected to increase, and (iii) identify the impact of bio fuel production in the water availability and economic value. Under optimized conditions, adoption of sugar cane for biofuel production heavily relies on the opportunity costs of other crops and hydropower generation. Areas with a lower value crop groups seem more suitable to adopt sugar cane for biofuel when the price of ethanol is sufficiently high and the opportunity costs of hydropower productions are not conflicting. The approach also highlights the potential for insights in water management from studying regional versus larger scales bundled systems involving water use, food production and power generation.

  13. Economic Benefits of Improved Information on Worldwide Crop Production: An Optimal Decision Model of Production and Distribution with Application to Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Andrews, J.

    1977-01-01

    An optimal decision model of crop production, trade, and storage was developed for use in estimating the economic consequences of improved forecasts and estimates of worldwide crop production. The model extends earlier distribution benefits models to include production effects as well. Application to improved information systems meeting the goals set in the large area crop inventory experiment (LACIE) indicates annual benefits to the United States of $200 to $250 million for wheat, $50 to $100 million for corn, and $6 to $11 million for soybeans, using conservative assumptions on expected LANDSAT system performance.

  14. An economic, sustainability, and energetic model of biodiesel production from microalgae.

    PubMed

    Delrue, F; Setier, P-A; Sahut, C; Cournac, L; Roubaud, A; Peltier, G; Froment, A-K

    2012-05-01

    A new process evaluation methodology of microalgae biodiesel has been developed. Based on four evaluation criteria, i.e. the net energy ratio (NER), biodiesel production costs, greenhouse gases (GHG) emission rate and water footprint, the model compares various technologies for each step of the process, from cultivation to oil upgrading. An innovative pathway (hybrid raceway/PBR cultivation system, belt filter press for dewatering, wet lipid extraction, oil hydrotreating and anaerobic digestion of residues) shows good results in comparison to a reference pathway (doubled NER, lower GHG emission rate and water footprint). The production costs are still unfavourable (between 1.94 and 3.35 €/L of biodiesel). The most influential parameters have been targeted through a global sensitivity analysis and classified: (i) lipid productivity, (ii) the cultivation step, and (iii) the downstream processes. The use of low-carbon energy sources is required to achieve significant reductions of the biodiesel GHG emission rate compared to petroleum diesel.

  15. Mycotoxins in ethanol co-products: modeling economic impacts on the livestock industry and management strategies.

    PubMed

    Wu, Felicia; Munkvold, Gary P

    2008-06-11

    The rapidly expanding U.S. ethanol industry is generating a growing supply of co-products, mostly in the form of dried distillers' grain and solubles (DDGS) or wet distillers' grains (WDG). In the United States, 90% of the co-products of maize-based ethanol are fed to livestock. An unintended consequence is that animals are likely to be fed higher levels of mycotoxins, which are concentrated up to three times in DDGS compared to grain. The model developed in this study estimates current losses to the swine industry from weight gain reduction due to fumonisins in added DDGS at $9 million ($2-18 million) annually. If there is complete market penetration of DDGS in swine feed with 20% DDGS inclusion in swine feed and fumonisins are not controlled, losses may increase to $147 million ($29-293 million) annually. These values represent only those losses attributable to one mycotoxin on one adverse outcome on one species. The total loss due to mycotoxins in DDGS could be significantly higher due to additive or multiplicative effects of multiple mycotoxins on animal health. If mycotoxin surveillance is implemented by ethanol producers, losses are shifted among multiple stakeholders. Solutions to this problem include methods to reduce mycotoxin contamination in both pre- and postharvest maize.

  16. Habitat Size Optimization of the O'Neill - Glaser Economic Model for Space Solar Satellite Production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curreri, Peter A.; Detweiler, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Creating large space habitats by launching all materials from Earth is prohibitively expensive. Using space resources and space based labor to build space solar power satellites can yield extraordinary profits after a few decades. The economic viability of this program depends on the use of space resources and space labor. To maximize the return on the investment, the early use of high density bolo habitats is required. Other shapes do not allow for the small initial scale required for a quick population increase in space. This study found that 5 Man Year, or 384 person bolo high density habitats will be the most economically feasible for a program started at year 2010 and will cause a profit by year 24 of the program, put over 45,000 people into space, and create a large system of space infrastructure for the further exploration and development of space.

  17. The economics of food production.

    PubMed

    Upton, M

    1993-01-01

    Although world average food production per person is increasing there are many countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where production has fallen in recent decades. The economic analysis of the world food problem concerns the dynamics of production, income, growth, demand and trade. The 'law of diminishing returns' suggests that labour incomes fall as population density increases. Capital investment and technological change, particularly with a land-saving bias, can overcome this effect. Such land-saving innovations are less appropriate where population densities are lower, as in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Innovations which reduce risk, such as stress- and disease-resistant crop varieties, may be more attractive to farmers. Communal or government action is required to ensure sustainability of food production; to reduce risk, through price stabilization, possibly crop insurance and contingency plans for famine relief; to promote equity and to ensure competitive market conditions. Public funding of agricultural research is necessary to promote growth in food supplies. If increases in supply do not keep pace with growth in demand, food prices rise, attracting resources into food production. If supply grows faster, food prices and farm incomes fall, driving resources out of agriculture. Resources may not move fast enough to correct imbalances. Primary producers are likely to face deteriorating terms of trade. Linkages between food production and other sectors are weak, so primary exports are not a good basis for economic development. Import substitution strategies may damage agriculture. Structural adjustment regimes have been adopted in some countries to correct imbalances and provide an incentive for farmers to increase production. Associated reductions in public expenditure may have a contrary impact.

  18. Conversion of bioprocess ethanol to industrial chemical products - Applications of process models for energy-economic assessments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rohatgi, Naresh K.; Ingham, John D.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment approach for accurate evaluation of bioprocesses for large-scale production of industrial chemicals is presented. Detailed energy-economic assessments of a potential esterification process were performed, where ethanol vapor in the presence of water from a bioreactor is catalytically converted to ethyl acetate. Results show that such processes are likely to become more competitive as the cost of substrates decreases relative to petrolium costs. A commercial ASPEN process simulation provided a reasonably consistent comparison with energy economics calculated using JPL developed software. Detailed evaluations of the sensitivity of production cost to material costs and annual production rates are discussed.

  19. The economics of dairy production.

    PubMed

    Wolf, Christopher A

    2003-07-01

    structure and regional pattern of dairy farm size and production. For the most part, however, the policy effects have been of indirect nature. The Pacific region has grown (despite having the lowest average price) by taking advantage of economies of size by specializing in milking cows. The United States dairy industry is a technologically advanced, well-managed, and economically important sector of United States agriculture. Future challenges include the ability to remain viable economically while dealing with environmental and social sustainability issues in the form of new constraints from formal policies and from consumer perceptions.

  20. Economic and Physical Modeling of Land Use in GCAM 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon

    SciTech Connect

    Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Edmonds, James A.

    2014-09-01

    We explore the impact of changes in agricultural productivity on global land use and terrestrial carbon using the new agriculture and land use modeling approach developed for Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. This approach models economic land use decisions with regional, physical, and technological specificity while maintaining economic and physical integration with the rest of the GCAM model. Physical land characteristics and quantities are tracked explicitly, and crop production practices are modeled discretely to facilitate coupling with physical models. Economic land allocation is modeled with non-linear functions in a market equilibrium rather than through a constrained optimization. In this paper, we explore three scenarios of future agriculture productivity in all regions of the globe over this century, ranging from a high growth to a zero growth level. The higher productivity growth scenario leads to lower crop prices, increased production of crops in developing nations, preservation of global forested lands and lower terrestrial carbon emissions. The scenario with no productivity improvement results in higher crop prices, an expansion of crop production in the developed world, loss of forested lands globally, and higher terrestrial carbon emissions.

  1. Farm systems assessment of bioenergy feedstock production: Integrating bio-economic models and life cycle analysis approaches.

    PubMed

    Glithero, N J; Ramsden, S J; Wilson, P

    2012-06-01

    Climate change and energy security concerns have driven the development of policies that encourage bioenergy production. Meeting EU targets for the consumption of transport fuels from bioenergy by 2020 will require a large increase in the production of bioenergy feedstock. Initially an increase in 'first generation' biofuels was observed, however 'food competition' concerns have generated interest in second generation biofuels (SGBs). These SGBs can be produced from co-products (e.g. cereal straw) or energy crops (e.g. miscanthus), with the former largely negating food competition concerns. In order to assess the sustainability of feedstock supply for SGBs, the financial, environmental and energy costs and benefits of the farm system must be quantified. Previous research has captured financial costs and benefits through linear programming (LP) approaches, whilst environmental and energy metrics have been largely been undertaken within life cycle analysis (LCA) frameworks. Assessing aspects of the financial, environmental and energy sustainability of supplying co-product second generation biofuel (CPSGB) feedstocks at the farm level requires a framework that permits the trade-offs between these objectives to be quantified and understood. The development of a modelling framework for Managing Energy and Emissions Trade-Offs in Agriculture (MEETA Model) that combines bio-economic process modelling and LCA is presented together with input data parameters obtained from literature and industry sources. The MEETA model quantifies arable farm inputs and outputs in terms of financial, energy and emissions results. The model explicitly captures fertiliser: crop-yield relationships, plus the incorporation of straw or removal for sale, with associated nutrient impacts of incorporation/removal on the following crop in the rotation. Key results of crop-mix, machinery use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per kg of crop product and energy use per hectare are in line with previous

  2. Application of integrated production and economic models to estimate the impact of Schmallenberg virus for various sheep production types in the UK and France

    PubMed Central

    Alarcon, Pablo; Häsler, Barbara; Raboisson, Didier; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Corbière, Fabien; Rushton, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    Objective The present study aimed to estimate and compare the economic impact of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in different sheep production holdings using partial budget and gross margin analyses in combination with production models. Participants The sheep production types considered were lowland spring lambing, upland spring lambing and early lambing flocks in the UK, and grass lamb flocks of the Centre and West of France, extensive lambing flocks and dairy sheep flocks in France. Methodology Two disease scenarios with distinct input parameters associated with reproductive problems were considered: low and high impact. Sensitivity analyses were performed for the most uncertain input parameters, and the models were run with all of the lowest and highest values to estimate the range of disease impact. Results The estimated net SBV disease cost per year and ewe for the UK was £19.65–£20.85 for the high impact scenario and £6.40–£6.58 for the low impact scenario. No major differences were observed between the different production types. For France, the net SBV disease cost per year and ewe for the meat sheep holdings was £15.59–£17.20 for the high impact scenario and £4.75–£5.26 for the low impact scenario. For the dairy sheep, the costs per year and ewe were £29.81 for the high impact scenario and £10.34 for the low impact scenario. Conclusions The models represent a useful decision support tool for farmers and veterinarians who are facing decisions regarding disease control measures. They allow estimating disease impact on a farm accounting for differing production practices, which creates the necessary basis for cost effectiveness analysis of intervention strategies, such as vaccination. PMID:26392876

  3. Techno Economic Model

    SciTech Connect

    2010-04-01

    The Technoeconomic model is a computational model of a lignocellulosic biorefinery that can be used by industry to establish benchmarks of performance and risk-benefit analysis in order to assess the potential impact of cutting edge technologies. The model can be used to evaluate, guide, and optimize research efforts, biorefinery design, and process operation. The model will help to reduce the risk of commercial investment and development of biorefineries and help steer future research to those parts of the refining process in need of further developments for biofuels to be cost competitive. We have now aded modules for the following sections: feed handling, pretreatment, fermentation, product and water recovery, waste treatment, and steam/electricity generation. We have incorporated a kinetic model for microorganism growth and production of ethanol, inclouding toxin inhibition. For example, the feed handling section incorporates information regarding feedstock transport distance-dependent costs. The steam and electricity generation section now includes a turbogenerator that supplies power to be used by other unit operations and contains equations for efficiency calculations.

  4. Gary Becker: Model Economic Scientist

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents Gary Becker’s approach to conducting creative, empirically fruitful economic research. It describes the traits and methodology that made him such a productive and influential scholar. PMID:26705367

  5. Economics of Gypsum Production in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim

    The purpose of this research is to analyze the economics of gypsum production in Iran. The trend in production cost, selling price and profit are used to investigate economics of gypsum production. In addition, the multivariate time series method is used to determine factors affecting gypsum price in domestic market. The results indicated that due to increase in production and inflation, profitability of gypsum production has decreased during recent years. It is concluded that tariff and non-tariff barriers on mines machinery are among reasons for increasing production cost in Iranian gypsum mines. Decreasing such barriers could increase profitability of gypsum production in Iran.

  6. Economical Production of Pu-238

    SciTech Connect

    Steven D. Howe; Douglas Crawford; Jorge Navarro; Terry Ring

    2013-02-01

    All space exploration missions traveling beyond Jupiter must use radioisotopic power sources for electrical power. The best isotope to power these sources is plutonium-238. The US supply of Pu-238 is almost exhausted and will be gone within the next decade. The Department of Energy has initiated a production program with a $10M allocation from NASA but the cost is estimated at over $100 M to get to production levels. The Center for Space Nuclear Research has conceived of a potentially better process to produce Pu-238 earlier and for significantly less cost. The new process will also produce dramatically less waste. Potentially, the front end costs could be provided by private industry such that the government only had to pay for the product produced. Under a NASA Phase I NIAC grant, the CSNR has evaluated the feasibility of using a low power, commercially available nuclear reactor to produce at least 1.5 kg of Pu-238 per year. The impact on the neutronics of the reactor have been assessed, the amount of Neptunium target material estimated, and the production rates calculated. In addition, the size of the post-irradiation processing facility has been established. In addition, a new method for fabricating the Pu-238 product into the form used for power sources has been identified to reduce the cost of the final product. In short, the concept appears to be viable, can produce the amount of Pu-238 needed to support the NASA missions, can be available within a few years, and will cost significantly less than the current DOE program.

  7. Switchgrass: Production, Economics, and Net Energy

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The critical questions for a biomass bioenergy production system are: • What are the economics? • Is energy from biomass net energy positive? • Is production system information available and verified? • Is the system sustainable? To address these questions, ten farmers in the mid-continental USA w...

  8. High titer L-lactic acid production from corn stover with minimum wastewater generation and techno-economic evaluation based on Aspen plus modeling.

    PubMed

    Liu, Gang; Sun, Jiaoe; Zhang, Jian; Tu, Yi; Bao, Jie

    2015-12-01

    Technological potentials of l-lactic acid production from corn stover feedstock were investigated by experimental and techno-economic studies. An optimal performance with 104.5 g/L in l-lactic acid titer and 71.5% in overall yield from cellulose in corn stover to l-lactic acid using an engineered Pediococcus acidilactici strain were obtained by overcoming several technical barriers. A rigorous Aspen plus model for l-lactic acid production starting from dry dilute acid pretreated and biodetoxified corn stover was developed. The techno-economic analysis shows that the minimum l-lactic acid selling price (MLSP) was $0.523 per kg, which was close to that of the commercial l-lactic acid produced from starch feedstock, and 24% less expensive than that of ethanol from corn stover, even though the xylose utilization was not considered. The study provided a prototype of industrial application and an evaluation model for high titer l-lactic acid production from lignocellulose feedstock.

  9. Model confirmation in climate economics.

    PubMed

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K J

    2016-08-02

    Benefit-cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth-one of its most important economic components-had questionable predictive power over the 20th century.

  10. Model confirmation in climate economics

    PubMed Central

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  11. Process engineering economics of bioethanol production.

    PubMed

    Galbe, Mats; Sassner, Per; Wingren, Anders; Zacchi, Guido

    2007-01-01

    This work presents a review of studies on the process economics of ethanol production from lignocellulosic materials published since 1996. Our objective was to identify the most costly process steps and the impact of various parameters on the final production cost, e.g. plant capacity, raw material cost, and overall product yield, as well as process configuration. The variation in estimated ethanol production cost is considerable, ranging from about 0.13 to 0.81 US$ per liter ethanol. This can be explained to a large extent by actual process differences and variations in the assumptions underlying the techno-economic evaluations. The most important parameters for the economic outcome are the feedstock cost, which varied between 30 and 90 US$ per metric ton in the papers studied, and the plant capacity, which influences the capital cost. To reduce the ethanol production cost it is necessary to reach high ethanol yields, as well as a high ethanol concentration during fermentation, to be able to decrease the energy required for distillation and other downstream process steps. Improved pretreatment methods, enhanced enzymatic hydrolysis with cheaper and more effective enzymes, as well as improved fermentation systems present major research challenges if we are to make lignocellulose-based ethanol production competitive with sugar- and starch-based ethanol. Process integration, either internally or externally with other types of plants, e.g. heat and power plants, also offers a way of reducing the final ethanol production cost.

  12. Estimating the Performance and Economic Value of Multiple Concentrating Solar Power Technologies in a Production Cost Model

    SciTech Connect

    Jorgenson, Jennie; Denholm, Paul; Mehos, Mark; Turchi, Craig

    2013-12-01

    Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of renewable energy in that the solar thermal energy can be dispatched similarly to conventional thermal generation. However, CSP-TES plants are energy-limited, meaning that their response might be restricted by solar availability. Therefore, the use of this limited solar energy must be optimally scheduled toprovide the greatest value to the system. The timing of CSP-TES dispatch depends on a variety of factors, including electricity demand patterns, the penetration of variable generation sources, and the configuration of the CSP-TES plant itself. We use an established CSP-TES modeling framework in a commercially available production cost model to compare the dispatch and value of two CSP-TEStechnologies (molten salt towers and parabolic troughs) in a Colorado test system. In addition, we consider a range of configuration parameters, such as the solar multiple and thermal energy storage limit, to evaluate how the operational and capacity value varies with plant configuration.

  13. Model space of economic events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romanovsky, M. Yu.

    A method for constructing the model or virtual space of economic events when economic objects can be considered as material ones is suggested. We describe change of share rates in time at stock markets as the potential difference of attracted bodies in time in this virtual space. Each share of each enterprise is displayed by a single particle with a unit “charge”. It is shown that the random value of potential difference at the origin of coordinates measured at a definite time interval has the probability density coinciding with the known distribution of “Levy flights” or “Levy walks”. A distribution of alteration in time of the “Standard and Poor” index value obtained by Mantegna and Stanley (they shown that it is the “Levy walks” distribution too) (Mantegna and Stanley, Nature 376 (1995) 46) is used for determination of the introduced potential dependence on coordinates in the model space. A simple phenomenological model of interaction potential is introduced. The potential law of each particle turns out to be closed to r-2.14 in the minimum possible three-dimensional model space. This model permits calculation of time of random potential correlations at a certain point of the model space. These correlations could characterize the time period of making a decision by an investor at stock exchange. It is shown that this time is notably shorter in unstable periods (1987). A “microscopical” model of interaction in the virtual space is also discussed.

  14. Ethanol production: energy, economic, and environmental losses.

    PubMed

    Pimentel, David; Patzek, Tad; Cecil, Gerald

    2007-01-01

    The prime focus of ethanol production from corn is to replace the imported oil used in American vehicles, without expending more fossil energy in ethanol production than is produced as ethanol energy. In a thorough and up-to-date evaluation of all the fossil energy costs of ethanol production from corn, every step in the production and conversion process must be included. In this study, 14 energy inputs in average U.S. corn production are included. Then, in the fermentation/distillation operation, 9 more identified fossil fuel inputs are included. Some energy and economic credits are given for the by-products, including dried distillers grains (DDG). Based on all the fossil energy inputs, a total of 1.43 kcal fossil energy is expended to produced 1 kcal ethanol. When the energy value of the DDG, based on the feed value of the DDG as compared to that of soybean meal, is considered, the energy cost of ethanol production is reduced slightly, to 1.28 kcal fossil energy input per 1 kcal ethanol produced. Several proethanol investigators have overlooked various energy inputs in U.S. corn production, including farm machinery, processing machinery, and the use of hybrid corn. In other studies, unrealistic, low energy costs were attributed to such inputs as nitrogen fertilizer, insecticides, and herbicides. Controversy continues concerning the energy and economic credits that should be assigned to the by-products. The U.S. Department of Energy reports that 17.0 billion L ethanol was produced in 2005. This represents only less than 1% of total oil use in the U.S. These yields are based on using about 18% of total U.S. corn production and 18% of cornland. Because the production of ethanol requires large inputs of both oil and natural gas in production, the U.S. is importing both oil and natural gas to produce ethanol. Furthermore, the U.S. Government is spending about dollar 3 billion annually to subsidize ethanol production, a subsidy of dollar 0.79/L ethanol produced. With

  15. Economic aspects of amino acids production.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Udo; Huebner, Susanna

    2003-01-01

    Amino acids represent basic elements of proteins, which as a main source of nutrition themselves serve as a major reserve for maintaining essential functions of humans as well as animals. Taking the recent state of scientific knowledge into account, the industrial sector of amino acids is a priori "suitable" to a specific kind of an ecologically sound way of production, which is based on biotechnology. The following article may point out characteristics of this particular industrial sector and illustrates the applicability of the latest economic methods, founded on development of the discipline of bionics in order to describe economic aspects of amino acids markets. The several biochemical and technological fields of application of amino acids lead to specific market structures in high developed and permanently evolving systems. The Harvard tradition of industrial economics explains how market structures mould the behaviour of the participants and influences market results beyond that. A global increase in intensity of competition confirms the notion that the supply-side is characterised by asymmetric information in contrast to Kantzenbachs concept of "narrow oligopoly" with symmetrical shared knowledge about market information. Departing from this point, certain strategies of companies in this market form shall be derived. The importance of Research and Development increases rapidly and leads to innovative manufacturing methods which replace more polluting manufacturing processes like acid hydrolysis. In addition to these modifications within the production processes the article deals furthermore with the pricing based on product life cycle concept and introduces specific applications of tools like activity based costing and target costing to the field of amino acid production. The authors come to the conclusion that based on a good transferability of latest findings in bionics and ecological compatibility competitors in amino acids manufacturing are well advised

  16. HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

    SciTech Connect

    Bush, Jason William; Myers, Kurt Steven

    2016-02-01

    This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

  17. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

  18. Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands I: epidemiological modelling to support economic analysis.

    PubMed

    Longworth, N; Mourits, M C M; Saatkamp, H W

    2014-06-01

    Economic analysis of control strategies for contagious diseases is a necessity in the development of contingency plans. Economic impacts arising from epidemics such as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) consist of direct costs (DC), direct consequential costs (DCC), indirect consequential costs (ICC) and aftermath costs (AC). Epidemiological models to support economic analysis need to provide adequate outputs for these critical economic parameters. Of particular importance for DCC, ICC and AC is the spatial production structure of a region. Spatial simulation models are therefore particularly suited for economic analysis; however, they often require a large number of parameters. The aims of this study are (i) to provide an economic rationale of epidemiological modelling in general, (ii) to provide a transparent description of the parameterization of a spatially based epidemiological model for the analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands and (iii) to discuss the validity and usefulness of this model for subsequent economic analysis. In the model, HPAI virus transmission occurs via local spread and animal movements. Control mechanisms include surveillance and tracing, movement restrictions and depopulation. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters indicated that the epidemiological outputs with the largest influence on the economic impacts (i.e. epidemic duration and number of farms in the movement restriction zone) were more robust than less influential indicators (i.e. number of infected farms). Economically relevant outputs for strategy comparison were most sensitive to the relative role of the different transmission parameters. The default simulation and results of the sensitivity analysis were consistent with the general outcomes of known HPAI models. Comparison was, however, limited due to the absence of some economically relevant outputs. It was concluded that the model creates economically relevant, adequate and credible output for subsequent use in

  19. Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

  20. Scleroglucan biopolymer production, properties, and economics

    SciTech Connect

    Compere, A. L.; Griffith, W. L.

    1980-01-01

    Production and solution properties which may make scleroglucan polysaccharide economically advantageous for onsite production and use in tertiary oil recovery were investigated. Scleroglucan, which is similar in viscosity and shear thinning to xanthan, can be produced in a 3-day batch or 12 h continuous fermentation. Yield is nearly 50% based on input glucose. Gross biopolymer-biomass separation may be effected using microscreening, a low energy process, followed by polish filtration. Polymer flux may be improved by hydrolysis with an endolaminarinase from Rhizopus arrhizius QM 1032. Simple feedstock requirements and low growth pH, together with the difficulty of resuspending dried polymer, may encourage field biopolymer fermentation and use of purified culture broth.

  1. Economic values of production and functional traits, including residual feed intake, in Finnish milk production.

    PubMed

    Hietala, P; Wolfová, M; Wolf, J; Kantanen, J; Juga, J

    2014-02-01

    Improving the feed efficiency of dairy cattle has a substantial effect on the economic efficiency and on the reduction of harmful environmental effects of dairy production through lower feeding costs and emissions from dairy farming. To assess the economic importance of feed efficiency in the breeding goal for dairy cattle, the economic values for the current breeding goal traits and the additional feed efficiency traits for Finnish Ayrshire cattle under production circumstances in 2011 were determined. The derivation of economic values was based on a bioeconomic model in which the profit of the production system was calculated, using the generated steady state herd structure. Considering beef production from dairy farms, 2 marketing strategies for surplus calves were investigated: (A) surplus calves were sold at a young age and (B) surplus calves were fattened on dairy farms. Both marketing strategies were unprofitable when subsidies were not included in the revenues. When subsidies were taken into account, a positive profitability was observed in both marketing strategies. The marginal economic values for residual feed intake (RFI) of breeding heifers and cows were -25.5 and -55.8 €/kg of dry matter per day per cow and year, respectively. The marginal economic value for RFI of animals in fattening was -29.5 €/kg of dry matter per day per cow and year. To compare the economic importance among traits, the standardized economic weight of each trait was calculated as the product of the marginal economic value and the genetic standard deviation; the standardized economic weight expressed as a percentage of the sum of all standardized economic weights was called relative economic weight. When not accounting for subsidies, the highest relative economic weight was found for 305-d milk yield (34% in strategy A and 29% in strategy B), which was followed by protein percentage (13% in strategy A and 11% in strategy B). The third most important traits were calving

  2. Preliminary Economics for Hydrocarbon Fuel Production from Cellulosic Sugars

    SciTech Connect

    Collett, James R.; Meyer, Pimphan A.; Jones, Susanne B.

    2014-05-18

    Biorefinery process and economic models built in CHEMCAD and a preliminary, genome-scale metabolic model for the oleaginous yeast Lipomyces starkeyi were used to simulate the bioconversion of corn stover to lipids, and the upgrading of these hydrocarbon precursors to diesel and jet fuel. The metabolic model was based on the recently released genome sequence for L. starkeyi and on metabolic pathway information from the literature. The process model was based on bioconversion, lipid extraction, and lipid oil upgrading data found in literature, on new laboratory experimental data, and on yield predictions from the preliminary L. starkeyi metabolic model. The current plant gate production cost for a distillate-range hydrocarbon fuel was estimated by the process model Base Case to be $9.5/gallon ($9.0 /gallon of gasoline equivalent) with assumptions of 2011$, 10% internal return on investment, and 2205 ton/day dry feed rate. Opportunities for reducing the cost to below $5.0/gallon, such as improving bioconversion lipid yield and hydrogenation catalyst selectivity, are presented in a Target Case. The process and economic models developed for this work will be updated in 2014 with new experimental data and predictions from a refined metabolic network model for L. starkeyi. Attaining a production cost of $3.0/gallon will require finding higher value uses for lignin other than power generation, such as conversion to additional fuel or to a co-product.

  3. Economic lot sizing in a production system with random demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Shine-Der; Yang, Chin-Ming; Lan, Shu-Chuan

    2016-04-01

    An extended economic production quantity model that copes with random demand is developed in this paper. A unique feature of the proposed study is the consideration of transient shortage during the production stage, which has not been explicitly analysed in existing literature. The considered costs include set-up cost for the batch production, inventory carrying cost during the production and depletion stages in one replenishment cycle, and shortage cost when demand cannot be satisfied from the shop floor immediately. Based on renewal reward process, a per-unit-time expected cost model is developed and analysed. Under some mild condition, it can be shown that the approximate cost function is convex. Computational experiments have demonstrated that the average reduction in total cost is significant when the proposed lot sizing policy is compared with those with deterministic demand.

  4. Economic tour package model using heuristic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

    2014-07-01

    A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

  5. Drilling and production - Economics show CO2 EOR potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dubois, M.K.; Byrnes, A.P.

    2000-01-01

    CO2 EOR may be the key to recovering hundreds of millions of bbl of trapped oil from the mature fields in central Kansas. A simple model aided in assessing the economics of CO2 EOR for central Kansas and the Midcontinent. The model used CO2 Prophet, a DOE freeware reservoir numerical simulation program, to determine reservoir performance, including injected and produced fluid rates, and CO2 utilization. Economic parameters, e.g., oil price, CO2 costs, capital costs, net revenue interest, production taxes, and lease operating expenses, are typical for anticipated conditions in the region and present price climate. Preliminary economic analysis shows that CO2 EOR should give an internal rate of return (IRR) > 20%, before income tax, assuming oil sells for $20/bbl, CO2 costs $1/million cu ft, and gross utilization is 10 million cu ft of CO2/bbl of oil recovered. If the CO2 is reduced to $0.75/million cu ft, an oil price of $17/bbl yields an IRR of 20%. Reservoir and economic modeling shows that IRR is most sensitive to oil price and CO2 cost.

  6. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-01

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  7. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

    PubMed

    Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

    2015-11-12

    Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

  8. Projecting global tropical cyclone economic damages with validation of tropical cyclone economic damage model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iseri, Y.; Iwasaki, A.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) sometimes cause serious damages to human society and thus possible changes of TC properties in the future have been concerned. In fact, the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) mentions likely increasing in intensity and rain rate of TCs. In addition, future change of socioeconomic condition (e.g. population growth) might worsen TC impacts in the future. Thereby, in this study, we developed regression models to estimate economic damages by TCs (hereafter TC damage model), and employed those models to project TC economic damages under several future climate and socioeconomic scenarios. We developed the TC damage models for each of 4 regions; western North Pacific, North American, North Indian, and Southern Hemisphere. The inputs for TC damage model are tropical cyclone central pressure, populations in the area exposed by tropical cyclone wind, and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita. The TC damage models we firstly developed tended to overestimate very low damages and also underestimate very high damages. Thereby we modified structure of TC damage models to improve model performance, and then executed extensive validation of the model. The modified model presented better performance in estimating very low and high TC damages. After the modification and validation of the model, we determined the structure of TC damage models and projected TC economic damages. The result indicated increase in TC economic damage in global scale, while TC economic damage against world GDP would decrease in the future, which result is consistent with previous study.

  9. Economic assessment of biodiesel production from waste frying oils.

    PubMed

    Araujo, Victor Kraemer Wermelinger Sancho; Hamacher, Silvio; Scavarda, Luiz Felipe

    2010-06-01

    Waste frying oils (WFO) can be a good source for the production of biodiesel because this raw material is not part of the food chain, is low cost and can be used in a way that resolves environmental problems (i.e. WFO is no longer thrown into the sewage network). The goal of this article is to propose a method to evaluate the costs of biodiesel production from WFO to develop an economic assessment of this alternative. This method embraces a logistics perspective, as the cost of collection of oil from commercial producers and its delivery to biodiesel depots or plants can be relevant and is an issue that has been little explored in the academic literature. To determine the logistics cost, a mathematical programming model is proposed to solve the vehicle routing problem (VRP), which was applied in an important urban center in Brazil (Rio de Janeiro), a relevant and potential center for biodiesel production and consumption. Eighty-one biodiesel cost scenarios were compared with information on the commercialization of biodiesel in Brazil. The results obtained demonstrate the economic viability of biodiesel production from WFO in the urban center studied and the relevance of logistics in the total biodiesel production cost.

  10. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    SciTech Connect

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  11. Economics. Does science drive the productivity train?

    PubMed

    Malakoff, D

    2000-08-25

    From the president on down, many are hailing science as the fuel for today's booming economy, and bigger research budgets are seen as essential to continued prosperity. But skeptics say the information technology revolution is overrated as a contributor to economic growth when compared to the truly society-shaking innovations of the past, such as electricity or the telephone. Even some science lobbyists worry that hitching basic research's star too closely to economic arguments could backfire, prompting legislators to take a firmer hand in guiding cash toward less risky projects that they believe will pay off big.

  12. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification

    SciTech Connect

    Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.

    2010-11-01

    This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.

  13. Economic development and the allocation of petroleum products in Sudan

    SciTech Connect

    Cain, M. ); Yousif, M.A.R. )

    1991-01-01

    The Sudanese economy has been characterized in recent years by severe energy shortages which have affected all economic activity. More than 94% of the commercial energy is imported and the level of such imports is seriously limited by the current foreign exchange crisis. However, the problem is not just one of foreign exchange; there is also the problem of utilization of resources to avoid bottleneck problems of supply. The allocation of petroleum products in Sudan has had a severe effect on all aspects of economic life. The aim of this paper is to highlight the problem and to build a model to optimize the distribution of petroleum products in order to achieve at least a minimal supply in all regions. A large linear programming model has been developed and the solution indicates that current facilities should be able to satisfy 96% of the 1986 demand, about 30% more than the actual supply. Furthermore, with a little investment in storage facilities and extra trucks, the supply could satisfy total demand in the immediate future.

  14. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

    PubMed

    Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

    2017-01-05

    Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects.

  15. How to estimate productivity costs in economic evaluations.

    PubMed

    Krol, Marieke; Brouwer, Werner

    2014-04-01

    Productivity costs are frequently omitted from economic evaluations, despite their often strong impact on cost-effectiveness outcomes. This neglect may be partly explained by the lack of standardization regarding the methodology of estimating productivity costs. This paper aims to contribute to standardization of productivity cost methodology by offering practical guidance on how to estimate productivity costs in economic evaluations. The paper discusses the identification, measurement and valuation of productivity losses. It is recommended to include not only productivity losses related to absenteeism from and reduced productivity at paid work, but also those related to unpaid work. Hence, it is recommended to use a measurement instrument including questions about both paid and unpaid productivity, such as the iMTA Productivity Cost Questionnaire (iPCQ) or the Valuation of Lost Productivity (VOLP). We indicate how to apply the friction cost and the human capital approach and give practical guidance on deriving final cost estimates.

  16. An Economic Model for Selective Admissions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haglund, Alma

    1978-01-01

    The author presents an economic model for selective admissions to postsecondary nursing programs. Primary determinants of the admissions model are employment needs, availability of educational resources, and personal resources (ability and learning potential). As there are more applicants than resources, selective admission practices are…

  17. Techno-economic and Monte Carlo probabilistic analysis of microalgae biofuel production system.

    PubMed

    Batan, Liaw Y; Graff, Gregory D; Bradley, Thomas H

    2016-11-01

    This study focuses on the characterization of the technical and economic feasibility of an enclosed photobioreactor microalgae system with annual production of 37.85 million liters (10 million gallons) of biofuel. The analysis characterizes and breaks down the capital investment and operating costs and the production cost of unit of algal diesel. The economic modelling shows total cost of production of algal raw oil and diesel of $3.46 and $3.69 per liter, respectively. Additionally, the effects of co-products' credit and their impact in the economic performance of algal-to-biofuel system are discussed. The Monte Carlo methodology is used to address price and cost projections and to simulate scenarios with probabilities of financial performance and profits of the analyzed model. Different markets for allocation of co-products have shown significant shifts for economic viability of algal biofuel system.

  18. Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America

    PubMed Central

    Hsiang, Solomon M.

    2010-01-01

    Understanding the economic impact of surface temperatures is an important question for both economic development and climate change policy. This study shows that in 28 Caribbean-basin countries, the response of economic output to increased temperatures is structurally similar to the response of labor productivity to high temperatures, a mechanism omitted from economic models of future climate change. This similarity is demonstrated by isolating the direct influence of temperature from that of tropical cyclones, an important correlate. Notably, output losses occurring in nonagricultural production (–2.4%/+1 °C) substantially exceed losses occurring in agricultural production (–0.1%/+1 °C). Thus, these results suggest that current models of future climate change that focus on agricultural impacts but omit the response of workers to thermal stress may underestimate the global economic costs of climate change. PMID:20713696

  19. Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America.

    PubMed

    Hsiang, Solomon M

    2010-08-31

    Understanding the economic impact of surface temperatures is an important question for both economic development and climate change policy. This study shows that in 28 Caribbean-basin countries, the response of economic output to increased temperatures is structurally similar to the response of labor productivity to high temperatures, a mechanism omitted from economic models of future climate change. This similarity is demonstrated by isolating the direct influence of temperature from that of tropical cyclones, an important correlate. Notably, output losses occurring in nonagricultural production (-2.4%/+1 degrees C) substantially exceed losses occurring in agricultural production (-0.1%/+1 degrees C). Thus, these results suggest that current models of future climate change that focus on agricultural impacts but omit the response of workers to thermal stress may underestimate the global economic costs of climate change.

  20. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    PubMed

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  1. Understanding and modeling the economics of ECM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wells, Wayne E.; Edinbarough, Immanuel A.

    2004-12-01

    Traditional economic analysis methods for manufacturing decisions include only the clearly identified immediate cost and revenue streams. Environmental issues have generally been seen as costs, in the form of waste material losses, conformance tests and pre-discharge treatments. The components of the waste stream often purchased as raw materials, become liabilities at the "end of the pipe" and their intrinsic material value is seldom recognized. A new mathematical treatment of manufacturing economics is proposed in which the costs of separation are compared with the intrinsic value of the waste materials to show how their recovery can provide an economic advantage to the manufacturer. The model is based on a unique combination of thermodynamic analysis, economic modeling and linear optimization. This paper describes the proposed model, and examines case studies in which the changed decision rules have yielded significant savings while protecting the environment. The premise proposed is that by including the value of the waste materials in the profit objective of the firm and applying the appropriate technological solution, manufacturing processes can become closed systems in which losses approach zero and environmental problems are converted into economic savings.

  2. Productivity costs in economic evaluations: past, present, future.

    PubMed

    Krol, Marieke; Brouwer, Werner; Rutten, Frans

    2013-07-01

    Productivity costs occur when the productivity of individuals is affected by illness, treatment, disability or premature death. The objective of this paper was to review past and current developments related to the inclusion, identification, measurement and valuation of productivity costs in economic evaluations. The main debates in the theory and practice of economic evaluations of health technologies described in this review have centred on the questions of whether and how to include productivity costs, especially productivity costs related to paid work. The past few decades have seen important progress in this area. There are important sources of productivity costs other than absenteeism (e.g. presenteeism and multiplier effects in co-workers), but their exact influence on costs remains unclear. Different measurement instruments have been developed over the years, but which instrument provides the most accurate estimates has not been established. Several valuation approaches have been proposed. While empirical research suggests that productivity costs are best included in the cost side of the cost-effectiveness ratio, the jury is still out regarding whether the human capital approach or the friction cost approach is the most appropriate valuation method to do so. Despite the progress and the substantial amount of scientific research, a consensus has not been reached on either the inclusion of productivity costs in economic evaluations or the methods used to produce productivity cost estimates. Such a lack of consensus has likely contributed to ignoring productivity costs in actual economic evaluations and is reflected in variations in national health economic guidelines. Further research is needed to lessen the controversy regarding the estimation of health-related productivity costs. More standardization would increase the comparability and credibility of economic evaluations taking a societal perspective.

  3. [Economic dimension and environmental impact of beef production in France].

    PubMed

    Peyraud, Jean-Louis

    2011-11-01

    Following recent publication of data on its environmental impact, beef production is being strongly challenged. However, these data concern global ruminant production, which is highly diverse and does not necessarily correspond to the European and French situations. While it is undeniable that ruminant production contributes to global warming, there are several ways of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and permanent pastures serve as carbon sinks. Beef production is also a vital economic sector for many regions, where it would not be possible to produce cereals or to develop intensive animal production systems. Beef production also contributes to many collective services, justifying its continued financial support.

  4. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  5. Cognitive Capitalism: Economic Freedom Moderates the Effects of Intellectual and Average Classes on Economic Productivity.

    PubMed

    Coyle, Thomas R; Rindermann, Heiner; Hancock, Dale

    2016-10-01

    Cognitive ability stimulates economic productivity. However, the effects of cognitive ability may be stronger in free and open economies, where competition rewards merit and achievement. To test this hypothesis, ability levels of intellectual classes (top 5%) and average classes (country averages) were estimated using international student assessments (Programme for International Student Assessment; Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study; and Progress in International Reading Literacy Study) (N = 99 countries). The ability levels were correlated with indicators of economic freedom (Fraser Institute), scientific achievement (patent rates), innovation (Global Innovation Index), competitiveness (Global Competitiveness Index), and wealth (gross domestic product). Ability levels of intellectual and average classes strongly predicted all economic criteria. In addition, economic freedom moderated the effects of cognitive ability (for both classes), with stronger effects at higher levels of freedom. Effects were particularly robust for scientific achievements when the full range of freedom was analyzed. The results support cognitive capitalism theory: cognitive ability stimulates economic productivity, and its effects are enhanced by economic freedom.

  6. Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

    2010-07-01

    We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

  7. Economic feasibility of agricultural alcohol production within a biomass system

    SciTech Connect

    Hertzmark, D.; Flaim, S.; Ray, D.; Parvin, G.

    1980-12-01

    The technical and economic feasibility of agricultural alcohol production in the United States is discussed. The beverage fermentation processes are compared and contrasted with the wet milling of corn, and alternative agricultural products for alcohol production are discussed. Alcohol costs for different fermentation methods and for various agricultural crops (corn, sugar cane, sugar beets, etc.) are presented, along with a brief discussion of US government policy implications. (JMT)

  8. An object-oriented approach to energy-economic modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wise, M.A.; Fox, J.A.; Sands, R.D.

    1993-12-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss the experiences in creating an object-oriented economic model of the U.S. energy and agriculture markets. After a discussion of some central concepts, they provide an overview of the model, focusing on the methodology of designing an object-oriented class hierarchy specification based on standard microeconomic production functions. The evolution of the model from the class definition stage to programming it in C++, a standard object-oriented programming language, will be detailed. The authors then discuss the main differences between writing the object-oriented program versus a procedure-oriented program of the same model. Finally, they conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the object-oriented approach based on the experience in building energy-economic models with procedure-oriented approaches and languages.

  9. Sparse High Dimensional Models in Economics

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Jianqing; Lv, Jinchi; Qi, Lei

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on sparse high dimensional models and discusses some applications in economics and finance. Recent developments of theory, methods, and implementations in penalized least squares and penalized likelihood methods are highlighted. These variable selection methods are proved to be effective in high dimensional sparse modeling. The limits of dimensionality that regularization methods can handle, the role of penalty functions, and their statistical properties are detailed. Some recent advances in ultra-high dimensional sparse modeling are also briefly discussed. PMID:22022635

  10. Economic and environmental assessment of syrup production. Colombian case.

    PubMed

    Dávila, Javier A; Hernández, Valentina; Castro, Eulogio; Cardona, Carlos A

    2014-06-01

    This work presents a techno-economic and environmental assessment of the glucose syrups production from sugarcane bagasse, plantain husk, cassava husk, mango peel, rice husk and corncobs. According to the economic analysis, the corncob had both, the lowest production cost (2.48USD/kg syrup) and the highest yield (0.61kgofsugars/kg of wet agroindustrial waste) due to its high content in cellulose and hemicellulose. This analysis also revealed that a heat integration strategy is necessary since the utilities consumption represent an important factor in the production cost. According to the results, the pretreatment section requires more energy in the syrup production in comparison with the requirements of other sections such as production and sugar concentration. The environmental assessment revealed that the solid wastes such as furfural and hydroxymethylfurfural affected the environmental development of the process for all the agroindustrial wastes, being the rice husk the residue with the lowest environmental impact.

  11. Techno Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Production by gasification of biomass

    SciTech Connect

    Francis Lau

    2002-12-01

    Biomass represents a large potential feedstock resource for environmentally clean processes that produce power or chemicals. It lends itself to both biological and thermal conversion processes and both options are currently being explored. Hydrogen can be produced in a variety of ways. The majority of the hydrogen produced in this country is produced through natural gas reforming and is used as chemical feedstock in refinery operations. In this report we will examine the production of hydrogen by gasification of biomass. Biomass is defined as organic matter that is available on a renewable basis through natural processes or as a by-product of processes that use renewable resources. The majority of biomass is used in combustion processes, in mills that use the renewable resources, to produce electricity for end-use product generation. This report will explore the use of hydrogen as a fuel derived from gasification of three candidate biomass feedstocks: bagasse, switchgrass, and a nutshell mix that consists of 40% almond nutshell, 40% almond prunings, and 20% walnut shell. In this report, an assessment of the technical and economic potential of producing hydrogen from biomass gasification is analyzed. The resource base was assessed to determine a process scale from feedstock costs and availability. Solids handling systems were researched. A GTI proprietary gasifier model was used in combination with a Hysys(reg. sign) design and simulation program to determine the amount of hydrogen that can be produced from each candidate biomass feed. Cost estimations were developed and government programs and incentives were analyzed. Finally, the barriers to the production and commercialization of hydrogen from biomass were determined. The end-use of the hydrogen produced from this system is small PEM fuel cells for automobiles. Pyrolysis of biomass was also considered. Pyrolysis is a reaction in which biomass or coal is partially vaporized by heating. Gasification is a more

  12. Process simulation and economical evaluation of enzymatic biodiesel production plant.

    PubMed

    Sotoft, Lene Fjerbaek; Rong, Ben-Guang; Christensen, Knud V; Norddahl, Birgir

    2010-07-01

    Process simulation and economical evaluation of an enzymatic biodiesel production plant has been carried out. Enzymatic biodiesel production from high quality rapeseed oil and methanol has been investigated for solvent free and cosolvent production processes. Several scenarios have been investigated with different production scales (8 and 200 mio. kg biodiesel/year) and enzyme price. The cosolvent production process is found to be most expensive and is not a viable choice, while the solvent free process is viable for the larger scale production of 200 mio. kg biodiesel/year with the current enzyme price. With the suggested enzyme price of the future, both the small and large scale solvent free production proved viable. The product price was estimated to be 0.73-1.49 euro/kg biodiesel with the current enzyme price and 0.05-0.75 euro/kg with the enzyme price of the future for solvent free process.

  13. Thorium: Crustal abundance, joint production, and economic availability

    SciTech Connect

    Jordan, Brett W.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Dixon, Brent W.; Carlsen, Brett W.

    2015-03-02

    Recently, interest in thorium's potential use in a nuclear fuel cycle has been renewed. Thorium is more abundant, at least on average, than uranium in the earth's crust and, therefore, could theoretically extend the use of nuclear energy technology beyond the economic limits of uranium resources. This paper provides an economic assessment of thorium availability by creating cumulative-availability and potential mining-industry cost curves, based on known thorium resources. These tools provide two perspectives on the economic availability of thorium. In the long term, physical quantities of thorium likely will not be a constraint on the development of a thorium fuel cycle. In the medium term, however, thorium supply may be limited by constraints associated with its production as a by-product of rare earth elements and heavy mineral sands. As a result, environmental concerns, social issues, regulation, and technology also present issues for the medium and long term supply of thorium.

  14. Thorium: Crustal abundance, joint production, and economic availability

    DOE PAGES

    Jordan, Brett W.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Dixon, Brent W.; ...

    2015-03-02

    Recently, interest in thorium's potential use in a nuclear fuel cycle has been renewed. Thorium is more abundant, at least on average, than uranium in the earth's crust and, therefore, could theoretically extend the use of nuclear energy technology beyond the economic limits of uranium resources. This paper provides an economic assessment of thorium availability by creating cumulative-availability and potential mining-industry cost curves, based on known thorium resources. These tools provide two perspectives on the economic availability of thorium. In the long term, physical quantities of thorium likely will not be a constraint on the development of a thorium fuelmore » cycle. In the medium term, however, thorium supply may be limited by constraints associated with its production as a by-product of rare earth elements and heavy mineral sands. As a result, environmental concerns, social issues, regulation, and technology also present issues for the medium and long term supply of thorium.« less

  15. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

    2015-04-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

  16. Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector. Costs of Production, 1986.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Economic Research Service (USDA), Washington, DC.

    This report contains 121 tables that estimate the costs of production of various commodities on United States farms in 1986. The report first assesses costs and returns on a per-unit basis, such as one acre or one animal, under three sections of a budget: cash receipts, cash expenses, and economic costs. The budgets are based on national…

  17. A Technical and Economic Review of Solar Hydrogen Production Technologies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilhelm, Erik; Fowler, Michael

    2006-01-01

    Hydrogen energy systems are being developed to replace fossil fuels-based systems for transportation and stationary application. One of the challenges facing the widespread adoption of hydrogen as an energy vector is the lack of an efficient, economical, and sustainable method of hydrogen production. In the short term, hydrogen produced from…

  18. Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector. Costs of Production, 1985.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Economic Research Service (USDA), Washington, DC.

    This report presents the Economic Research Service's estimates of the costs of producing wheat, feed grains, cotton, and dairy commodities. It includes costs for other farm products that compete with the required commodities, namely rice, peanuts, soybeans, flax, sunflowers, fed cattle, hogs, sheep, and sugar. The report begins by assessing costs…

  19. The economic viability of smallholder timber production under expanding açaí palm production in the Amazon Estuary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fortini, Lucas; Douglas R. Carter,

    2015-01-01

    Relatively little attention has been paid to the economic potentials and limitations of tropical timber production and management at smallholder scales, with the most relevant research focusing on community forestry efforts. As a rare tropical example of long-lasting small-scale timber production, in this study we explore the economics of smallholder vertically integrated timber use to better understand the activity in the context of its primary land use alternative in the Amazon Estuary, açaí palm fruit production. We use data from landowner and firm surveys, participatory monitoring of firms, and detailed forest and sawmill operation monitoring to devise financial returns models of smallholder timber micro firms and açaí palm fruit production. We then compare the economics of the two activities to better understand how differences may shape decisions at the small holder scale that impact current land use shifts in the region.

  20. Thermodynamic laws, economic methods and the productive power of energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kümmel, Reiner; Ayres, Robert U.; Lindenberger, Dietmar

    2010-07-01

    Energy plays only a minor role in orthodox theories of economic growth, because standard economic equilibrium conditions say that the output elasticity of a production factor, which measures the factor's productive power, is equal to the factor's share in total factor cost. Having commanded only a tiny cost share of about 5 percent so far, energy is often neglected altogether. On the other hand, energy conversion in the machines of the capital stock has been the basis of industrial growth. How can the physically obvious economic importance of energy be reconciled with the conditions for economic equilibrium, which result from the maximization of profit or overall welfare? We show that these equilibrium conditions no longer yield the equality of cost shares and output elasticities, if the optimization calculus takes technological constraints on the combinations of capital, labor, and energy into account. New econometric analyses of economic growth in Germany, Japan, and the USA yield output elasticities that are for energy much larger and for labor much smaller than their cost shares. Social consequences are discussed.

  1. Economics of production efficiency: Nutritional grouping of the lactating cow.

    PubMed

    Cabrera, V E; Kalantari, A S

    2016-01-01

    Nutritional grouping of lactating cows under total mixed ration (TMR) feeding systems has been discussed in the literature since 1970. Most studies have concluded that using multiple, more-homogeneous TMR feeding groups is economically beneficial because of either nutrient cost savings, improved productivity, or both. Nonetheless, no consensus has been formed around this technique nor has it been widely adopted. By using optimal criteria for grouping and more precise nutrient specifications of diets, the latest studies have reported a consistently greater income over feed cost ($/cow per year) with multiple TMR groups compared with 1 TMR (3 TMR=$46 and 2 TMR=$21 to $39). Critical factors that determine the economic value of nutritional grouping are: (1) criteria for grouping, (2) nutrient specifications of diets, (3) effects on milk production, (4) health and environmental benefits, (5) number, size, and frequency of grouping, and (6) additional costs and benefits. It has been documented that grouping cows according to their simultaneous nutritional requirements (a.k.a., cluster grouping) is optimal. Cluster grouping is superior to other methods, such as grouping according to days in milk, milk production, or production and body weight combined. However, the dairy industry still uses less-than-optimal grouping criteria. Using cluster grouping will enhance the positive economic effects of multiple TMR. In addition, nutrient specifications of diets for groups do not seem optimal either. Milk lead factors, which are only based on group average milk production, are used. Diets could, however, be formulated more precisely based on overall group nutrient requirements. Providing more precise diets should also be in favor of grouping economics. Furthermore, an area that requires more attention is the potential negative effect of grouping on the milk production of moved cows because of either or both social interactions or diet concentration changes. Although the literature

  2. [Ecological economic analysis of a rice-crab model].

    PubMed

    Chen, Feixing; Zhang, Zengjie

    2002-03-01

    Based on field investigation and experimental data analysis, ecological economic principles were applied to study the structure and function, the characteristics of material and energy flows, and the economic and ecological benefits of a rice-crab model. The results show that rice-crab model had a higher integral benefit than rice model, and its net income, cost-benefit ratio, and labor productivity were increased by 382%, 67.7% and 295%, respectively. In view of the ecological benefits produced, the total nitrogen, alkaline-hydrolyzal nitrogen, total phosphorus, rapidly available phosphorus, rapidly available potassium, and organic matter in the soil after 1-year carb breeding were increased by 10.6%, 3.3%, 5.8%, 11.7%, 3.5% and 10.5%, respectively. Moreover, 6.375 kg N.hm-2 of non-point source pollution load could be cut down annually.

  3. Integrated approach to economical, reliable, safe nuclear power production

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-06-01

    An Integrated Approach to Economical, Reliable, Safe Nuclear Power Production is the latest evolution of a concept which originated with the Defense-in-Depth philosophy of the nuclear industry. As Defense-in-Depth provided a framework for viewing physical barriers and equipment redundancy, the Integrated Approach gives a framework for viewing nuclear power production in terms of functions and institutions. In the Integrated Approach, four plant Goals are defined (Normal Operation, Core and Plant Protection, Containment Integrity and Emergency Preparedness) with the attendant Functional and Institutional Classifications that support them. The Integrated Approach provides a systematic perspective that combines the economic objective of reliable power production with the safety objective of consistent, controlled plant operation.

  4. Short communication: economics of sex-biased milk production.

    PubMed

    Ettema, J F; Østergaard, S

    2015-02-01

    In a recent data study using 2.4 million lactations of 1.5 million cows, it was reported that gestation of a female calf in the first parity increases cumulative milk production by approximately 445kg over the first 2 lactations. The reported effect in this study is large and remarkable because it has not been found before. To our knowledge, the economic implications of this or any other sex bias have not been studied. The objective of the current study was to quantify the reported influence of fetal sex across lactations by using a simulation model of a dairy herd including youngstock. Two scenarios were evaluated and compared with a scenario in which cows and heifers were exclusively bred with conventional (nonsexed) semen. In the first scenario, sexed semen was used moderately-on 30% of all heifers and 30% of the first parity cows. A second scenario was studied in which sexed semen was used intensively-on all heifers and 50% of the first-parity cows. The simulated proportion of cows giving birth to 2 consecutive heifers increased from 23% when using exclusively conventional semen up to 31 and 48% when using sexed semen moderately and intensively, respectively. The proportion of cows having 2 consecutive bulls decreased from 27% (conventional semen only) to 20 and 8% when using sexed semen moderately and intensively, respectively. When incorporating the sex bias in the simulation model, the simulated milk yield in the scenario in which sexed semen was used moderately increased by 48kg of energy-corrected milk (ECM) per cow/yr, compared with only 36kg of ECM when not incorporating the sex bias in the model. For the scenario in which sexed semen was used intensively, milk yield increased by 66 and 99kg of ECM when excluding and including the sex bias, respectively. The economic implications of the assumed sex bias were €4.0 and €9.9 per cow/yr, in the scenarios in which sexed semen was used moderately and intensively, respectively.

  5. Models for Products

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Speiser, Bob; Walter, Chuck

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores how models can support productive thinking. For us a model is a "thing", a tool to help make sense of something. We restrict attention to specific models for whole-number multiplication, hence the wording of the title. They support evolving thinking in large measure through the ways their users redesign them. They assume new…

  6. Home Economics Education Career Path Guide and Model Curriculum Standards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California State Univ., Northridge.

    This curriculum guide developed in California and organized in 10 chapters, provides a home economics education career path guide and model curriculum standards for high school home economics programs. The first chapter contains information on the following: home economics education in California, home economics careers for the future, home…

  7. Floating production systems in a ``new economic regime``

    SciTech Connect

    Eriksen, K.; D`Souza, R.B.; Wilson, A.J.S.; Johansson, O.

    1995-12-31

    Except for a short period before, during and after the Gulf War, the oil prices have been depressed for 8--10 years. This has forced industry to be profitable at these low oil price levels. Since 1975 various floating production systems have been evaluated and used as field development solutions around the world. As technical challenges have been overcome, floating production systems have become leading contenders for traditional and deepwater field developments in this new economic regime. There are many types of Floating production systems. A few examples are--the semisubmersible Floating Production System (FPS), the monohull Floating Production, Storage and Offloading system (FPSO), the Spar Buoy and the Deep Draft Floater. As the FPS and FPSO represent proven technology and are leading contenders for several field developments in both the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, this paper will concentrate on these concepts.

  8. Software development for the economic model of R.Barro

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalimoldayev, Maksat N.; Amirkhanova, Gulshat A.

    2016-12-01

    In this paper we describe the process of creating software for R.Barro economic model. The goal of the paper is the analysis of existing languages and platforms and selections of them as means for developing advanced software for modeling economic processes, and also the construction of algorithms and programs using traditional and modern methods of software development. Prototyping was selected as an approach for the development, it allows us to obtain in a short time the product, which is available for testing and further improvement in order to meet the requirements. The paper describes the version of the program that meets the recommended requirements, shows the schematic diagram of this program and describes its main functions.

  9. Breeding objectives for pigs in Kenya. II: economic values incorporating risks in different smallholder production systems.

    PubMed

    Mbuthia, Jackson Mwenda; Rewe, Thomas Odiwuor; Kahi, Alexander Kigunzu

    2015-02-01

    This study estimated economic values for production traits (dressing percentage (DP), %; live weight for growers (LWg), kg; live weight for sows (LWs), kg) and functional traits (feed intake for growers (FEEDg), feed intake for sow (FEEDs), preweaning survival rate (PrSR), %; postweaning survival (PoSR), %; sow survival rate (SoSR), %, total number of piglets born (TNB) and farrowing interval (FI), days) under different smallholder pig production systems in Kenya. Economic values were estimated considering two production circumstances: fixed-herd and fixed-feed. Under the fixed-herd scenario, economic values were estimated assuming a situation where the herd cannot be increased due to other constraints apart from feed resources. The fixed-feed input scenario assumed that the herd size is restricted by limitation of feed resources available. In addition to the tradition profit model, a risk-rated bio-economic model was used to derive risk-rated economic values. This model accounted for imperfect knowledge concerning risk attitude of farmers and variance of input and output prices. Positive economic values obtained for traits DP, LWg, LWs, PoSR, PrSR, SoSR and TNB indicate that targeting them in improvement would positively impact profitability in pig breeding programmes. Under the fixed-feed basis, the risk-rated economic values for DP, LWg, LWs and SoSR were similar to those obtained under the fixed-herd situation. Accounting for risks in the EVs did not yield errors greater than ±50 % in all the production systems and basis of evaluation meaning there would be relatively little effect on the real genetic gain of a selection index. Therefore, both traditional and risk-rated models can be satisfactorily used to predict profitability in pig breeding programmes.

  10. The nutrition intervention improved adult human capital and economic productivity.

    PubMed

    Martorell, Reynaldo; Melgar, Paul; Maluccio, John A; Stein, Aryeh D; Rivera, Juan A

    2010-02-01

    This article reviews key findings about the long-term impact of a nutrition intervention carried out by the Institute of Nutrition of Central America and Panama from 1969 to 1977. Results from follow-up studies in 1988-89 and 2002-04 show substantial impact on adult human capital and economic productivity. The 1988-89 study showed that adult body size and work capacity increased for those provided improved nutrition through age 3 y, whereas the 2002-04 follow-up showed that schooling was increased for women and reading comprehension and intelligence increased in both men and women. Participants were 26-42 y of age at the time of the 2002-04 follow-up, facilitating the assessment of economic productivity. Wages of men increased by 46% in those provided with improved nutrition through age 2 y. Findings for cardiovascular disease risk factors were heterogeneous; however, they suggest that improved nutrition in early life is unlikely to increase cardiovascular disease risk later in life and may indeed lower risk. In conclusion, the substantial improvement in adult human capital and economic productivity resulting from the nutrition intervention provides a powerful argument for promoting improvements in nutrition in pregnant women and young children.

  11. SRWC bioenergy productivity and economic feasibility on marginal lands.

    PubMed

    Ghezehei, Solomon B; Shifflett, Shawn D; Hazel, Dennis W; Nichols, Elizabeth Guthrie

    2015-09-01

    Evolving bioenergy markets necessitate consideration of marginal lands for woody biomass production worldwide particularly the southeastern U.S., a prominent wood pellet exporter to Europe. Growing short rotation woody crops (SRWCs) on marginal lands minimizes concerns about using croplands for bioenergy production and reinforces sustainability of wood supply to existing and growing global biomass markets. We estimated mean annual aboveground green biomass increments (MAIs) and assessed economic feasibility of various operationally established (0.5 ha-109 ha) SRWC stands on lands used to mitigate environmental liabilities of municipal wastewater, livestock wastewater and sludge, and subsurface contamination by petroleum and pesticides. MAIs (Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) had no consistent relationship with stand density or age. Non-irrigated Populus, Plantanus occidentalis L. and Pinus taeda L. stands produced 2.4-12.4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1). Older, irrigated Taxodium distchum L., Fraxinus pennsylvanica L., and coppiced P. occidentalis stands had higher MAIs (10.6-21.3 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) than irrigated Liquidambar styraciflua L. and non-coppiced, irrigated P. occidentalis (8-18 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Natural hardwood MAIs at 20-60 years were less than hardwood and P. taeda productivities at 5-20 years. Unlike weed control, irrigation and coppicing improved managed hardwood productivity. Rotation length affected economic outcomes although the returns were poor due to high establishment and maintenance costs, low productivities and low current stumpage values, which are expected to quickly change with development of robust global markets.

  12. Attribution of hydrologic trends using integrated hydrologic and economic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maneta, M. P.; Brugger, D. R.; Silverman, N. L.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrologic change has been detected in many regions of the world in the form of trends in annual streamflows, varying depths to the regional water table, or other alterations of the hydrologic balance. Most models used to investigate these changes implement sophisticated descriptions of the physical system but use simplified descriptions of the socioeconomic system. These simplifications come in the form of prescribed water diversions and land use change scenarios, which provide little insight into coupled natural-human systems and have limited predictive capabilities. We present an integrated model that adds realism to the description of the hydrologic system in agricultural regions by incorporating a component that updates the allocation of land and water to crops in response to hydroclimatic (water available) and economic conditions (prices of commodities and agricultural inputs). This component assumes that farmers allocate resources to maximize their net revenues, thus justifying the use of optimality conditions to constrain the parameters of an empirical production function that captures the economic behavior of farmers. Because the model internalizes the feedback between climate, agricultural markets, and farming activity into the hydrologic system, it can be used to understand to what extent human economic activity can exacerbate or buffer the regional hydrologic impacts of climate change in agricultural regions. It can also help in the attribution of causes of hydrologic change. These are important issues because local policy and management cannot solve climate change, but they can address land use and agricultural water use. We demonstrate the model in a case study.

  13. An economic model for evaluating high-speed aircraft designs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vandervelden, Alexander J. M.

    1989-01-01

    A Class 1 method for determining whether further development of a new aircraft design is desirable from all viewpoints is presented. For the manufacturer the model gives an estimate of the total cost of research and development from the preliminary design to the first production aircraft. Using Wright's law of production, one can derive the average cost per aircraft produced for a given break-even number. The model will also provide the airline with a good estimate of the direct and indirect operating costs. From the viewpoint of the passenger, the model proposes a tradeoff between ticket price and cruise speed. Finally all of these viewpoints are combined in a Comparative Aircraft Seat-kilometer Economic Index.

  14. Impact of production strategies and animal performance on economic values of dairy sheep traits.

    PubMed

    Krupová, Z; Wolfová, M; Krupa, E; Oravcová, M; Daňo, J; Huba, J; Polák, P

    2012-03-01

    The objective of this study was to carry out a sensitivity analysis on the impact of various production strategies and performance levels on the relative economic values (REVs) of traits in dairy sheep. A bio-economic model implemented in the program package ECOWEIGHT was used to simulate the profit function for a semi-extensive production system with the Slovak multi-purpose breed Improved Valachian and to calculate the REV of 14 production and functional traits. The following production strategies were analysed: differing proportions of milk processed to cheese, customary weaning and early weaning of lambs with immediate sale or sale after artificial rearing, seasonal lambing in winter and aseasonal lambing in autumn. Results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in detail for the four economically most important traits: 150 days milk yield, conception rate of ewes, litter size and ewe productive lifetime. Impacts of the differences in the mean value of each of these four traits on REVs of all other traits were also examined. Simulated changes in the production circumstances had a higher impact on the REV for milk yield than on REVs of the other traits investigated. The proportion of milk processed to cheese, weaning management strategy for lambs and level of milk yield were the main factors influencing the REV of milk yield. The REVs for conception rate of ewes were highly sensitive to the current mean level of the trait. The REV of ewe productive lifetime was most sensitive to variation in ewe conception rate, and the REV of litter size was most affected by weaning strategy for lambs. On the basis of the results of sensitivity analyses, it is recommended that economic values of traits for the overall breeding objective for dairy sheep be calculated as the weighted average of the economic values obtained for the most common production strategies of Slovak dairy sheep farms and that economic values be adjusted after substantial changes in performance levels

  15. The economic prospects of cellulosic biomass for biofuel production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumarappan, Subbu

    competitive with existing crops, and additional subsidy support would be required. Among the states in the eastern half of US, the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia are found to be economically more suitable to cultivate perennial energy crops. The third paper estimates the optimal feedstock composition of annual and perennial feedstocks from a biorefinery's perspective. The objective function of the optimization model is to minimize the cumulative costs covering harvesting, transport, storage, and GHG costs, of biomass procurement over a biorefinery's productive period of 20 years subject to various constraints on land availability, feedstock availability, processing capacity, contracting needs and storage. The results suggest that the economic tradeoff is between higher production costs for dedicated energy crops and higher collection and transport costs for agricultural residues; the delivered costs of biomass drives the results. These tradeoffs are reflected in optimal spatial planting pattern as preferred by the biorefinery: energy crops are grown in fields closer to the biorefinery and agricultural residues can be sourced from fields farther away from the biorefinery. The optimization model also provides useful insights into the price premiums paid for annual and perennial feedstocks. For the parameters used in the case study, the energy crop price premium ranges from 2 to 8 per ton for fields located within a 10 mile radius. For agricultural residues, the price premiums range from 5 to 16 per ton within a 10-20 mile radius.

  16. International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

    SciTech Connect

    2016-09-01

    International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

  17. Technology and economic assessment of lactic acid production and uses

    SciTech Connect

    Datta, R.; Tsai, S.P.

    1996-03-01

    Lactic acid has been an intermediate-volume specialty chemical (world production {approximately}50,000 tons/yr) used in a wide range of food-processing and industrial applications. Potentially, it can become a very large-volume, commodity-chemical intermediate produced from carbohydrates for feedstocks of biodegradable polymers, oxygenated chemicals, environmentally friendly ``green`` solvents, and other intermediates. In the past, efficient and economical technologies for the recovery and purification of lactic acid from fermentation broths and its conversion to the chemical or polymer intermediates had been the key technology impediments and main process cost centers. Development and deployment of novel separations technologies, such as electrodialysis with bipolar membranes, extractive and catalytic distillations, and chemical conversion, can enable low-cost production with continuous processes in large-scale operations. The emerging technologies can use environmentally sound lactic acid processes to produce environmentally useful products, with attractive process economics. These technology advances and recent product and process commercialization strategies are reviewed and assessed.

  18. Assessing Expertise in Economic Problem Solving: A Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Steven L.; VanFossen, Phillip J.

    1994-01-01

    Examines research literature and schematic models associated with the expert-novice model in cognitive psychology. Describes a model for rendering expertise in problem solving within economics. Reports that a preliminary study indicates that this model effectively rendered both expert and novice problem solving in economics. (CFR)

  19. Total Economic Value of Wetlands Products and Services in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Kakuru, Willy; Turyahabwe, Nelson; Mugisha, Johnny

    2013-01-01

    Wetlands provide food and non-food products that contribute to income and food security in Uganda. This study determined the economic value of wetland resources and their contribution to food security in the three agroecological zones of Uganda. The values of wetland resources were estimated using primary and secondary data. Market price, Productivity, and Contingent valuation methods were used to estimate the value of wetland resources. The per capita value of fish was approximately US$ 0.49 person−1. Fish spawning was valued at approximately US$ 363,815 year−1, livestock pastures at US$ 4.24 million, domestic water use at US$ 34 million year−1, and the gross annual value added by wetlands to milk production at US$ 1.22 million. Flood control was valued at approximately US$ 1,702,934,880 hectare−1 year−1 and water regulation and recharge at US$ 7,056,360 hectare−1 year−1. Through provision of grass for mulching, wetlands were estimated to contribute to US$ 8.65 million annually. The annual contribution of non-use values was estimated in the range of US$ 7.1 million for water recharge and regulation and to US$ 1.7 billion for flood control. Thus, resource investment for wetlands conservation is economically justified to create incentives for continued benefits. PMID:24163614

  20. Total economic value of wetlands products and services in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Kakuru, Willy; Turyahabwe, Nelson; Mugisha, Johnny

    2013-01-01

    Wetlands provide food and non-food products that contribute to income and food security in Uganda. This study determined the economic value of wetland resources and their contribution to food security in the three agroecological zones of Uganda. The values of wetland resources were estimated using primary and secondary data. Market price, Productivity, and Contingent valuation methods were used to estimate the value of wetland resources. The per capita value of fish was approximately US$ 0.49 person⁻¹. Fish spawning was valued at approximately US$ 363,815 year⁻¹, livestock pastures at US$ 4.24 million, domestic water use at US$ 34 million year⁻¹, and the gross annual value added by wetlands to milk production at US$ 1.22 million. Flood control was valued at approximately US$ 1,702,934,880 hectare⁻¹ year⁻¹ and water regulation and recharge at US$ 7,056,360 hectare⁻¹ year⁻¹. Through provision of grass for mulching, wetlands were estimated to contribute to US$ 8.65 million annually. The annual contribution of non-use values was estimated in the range of US$ 7.1 million for water recharge and regulation and to US$ 1.7 billion for flood control. Thus, resource investment for wetlands conservation is economically justified to create incentives for continued benefits.

  1. An integrated hydrological, ecological, and economical (HEE) modeling system for assessing water resources and ecosystem production: calibration and validation in the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xianglian; Yang, Xiusheng; Gao, Wei

    2006-08-01

    Effective management of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas demands studies that cross over the disciplinaries of natural and social sciences. An integrated Hydrological, Ecological and Economical (HEE) modeling system at regional scale has been developed to assess water resources use and ecosystem production in arid and semi-arid areas. As a physically-based distributed modeling system, the HEE modeling system requires various input parameters including those for soil, vegetation, topography, groundwater, and water and agricultural management at different spatial levels. A successful implementation of the modeling system highly depends on how well it is calibrated. This paper presented an automatic calibration procedure for the HEE modeling system and its test in the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin. Previous to calibration, comprehensive literature investigation and sensitivity analysis were performed to identify important parameters for calibration. The automatic calibration procedure was base on conventional Monte Carlo sampling method together with a multi-objective criterion for calibration over multi-site and multi-output. The multi-objective function consisted of optimizing statistics of mean absolute relative error (MARE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E NS), and coefficient of determination (R2). The modeling system was calibrated against streamflow and harvest yield data from multiple sites/provinces within the basin over 2001 by using the proposed automatic procedure, and validated over 1993-1995. Over the calibration period, the mean absolute relative error of simulated daily streamflow was within 7% while the statistics R2 and E NS of daily streamflow were 0.61 and 0.49 respectively. Average simulated harvest yield over the calibration period was about 9.2% less than that of observations. Overall calibration results have indicated that the calibration procedures developed in this study can efficiently calibrate

  2. The impact of economic crisis on the Greek hospitals' productivity.

    PubMed

    Mitropoulos, Panagiotis; Mitropoulos, Ioannis; Karanikas, Haralampos; Polyzos, Nikolaos

    2017-04-10

    During the recent economic crisis, Greece implemented a comprehensive reform in the health care system. The 2010 health reform occurred under the constraints imposed by the memorandum of understanding that the Greek Government signed with its EU/International Monetary Fund creditors to control its deficit. The objective of the study is to examine the impact of the reform on the efficiency and productivity of public hospitals in Greece. We use the Malmquist productivity index to comparatively examine the potential changes before and after the reform years. We compare productivity, efficiency, and technological changes using panel data of 111 public acute hospitals operating in Greece throughout the recession period of 2009 to 2012. Bootstrapping methods are applied to allow for uncertainty owing to sampling error and for statistical inference for the Malmquist productivity index and its decompositions. The analysis indicates that the productivity has been increased following the policy changes. It appears that the expected benefits from the reform in general have been achieved, at least in the short-term. This result is examined in the light of management and operations activities, which are related with the reform process. Therefore, at a second stage, the Malmquist index is regressed on variables that may potentially be statistically associated with productivity growth.

  3. An Economic Evaluation of Binary Cycle Geothermal Electricity Production

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-03-01

    Fridleifsson, I. B. "The Role of Goethermal Energy in the World," Geo-Heat Center Quarterly Bulletin, Vol 17, Iss 3: 1-5 31 Aug 1996. Gawlik, K. and C...ENV/03-07 Abstract The U.S. is heavily dependent on fossil fuels to produce electricity. Geothermal energy , the heat in the earth’s crust, can...provide an alternative source of energy for electricity production as well as reduce fossil fuel consumption. The economic analysis presented in this

  4. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    SciTech Connect

    Harrison, Thomas J.

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

  5. A statistical mechanical model of economics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubbers, Nicholas Edward Williams

    Statistical mechanics pursues low-dimensional descriptions of systems with a very large number of degrees of freedom. I explore this theme in two contexts. The main body of this dissertation explores and extends the Yard Sale Model (YSM) of economic transactions using a combination of simulations and theory. The YSM is a simple interacting model for wealth distributions which has the potential to explain the empirical observation of Pareto distributions of wealth. I develop the link between wealth condensation and the breakdown of ergodicity due to nonlinear diffusion effects which are analogous to the geometric random walk. Using this, I develop a deterministic effective theory of wealth transfer in the YSM that is useful for explaining many quantitative results. I introduce various forms of growth to the model, paying attention to the effect of growth on wealth condensation, inequality, and ergodicity. Arithmetic growth is found to partially break condensation, and geometric growth is found to completely break condensation. Further generalizations of geometric growth with growth in- equality show that the system is divided into two phases by a tipping point in the inequality parameter. The tipping point marks the line between systems which are ergodic and systems which exhibit wealth condensation. I explore generalizations of the YSM transaction scheme to arbitrary betting functions to develop notions of universality in YSM-like models. I find that wealth vi condensation is universal to a large class of models which can be divided into two phases. The first exhibits slow, power-law condensation dynamics, and the second exhibits fast, finite-time condensation dynamics. I find that the YSM, which exhibits exponential dynamics, is the critical, self-similar model which marks the dividing line between the two phases. The final chapter develops a low-dimensional approach to materials microstructure quantification. Modern materials design harnesses complex

  6. A Model for Rural Economic Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rampp, Lary; Johnson, Deke

    This paper offers definitions and descriptions, and explores the dynamics, of "strategic grantseeking" as a means of supporting economic development programs. Strategic grantseeking is a natural and dynamic tool usable with any economic development program. It consists of a set of concepts, procedures, and tools which are integrated into…

  7. An Economic Model of Interpersonal Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cissna, Linda Surbaugh; Cissna, Kenneth N.

    A Marxian economic analysis of interpersonal communication within a capitalist system finds that capitalism, with its attendant stress on wholly economic values, produces a commodity-oriented society. Mass media advertising is the primary vehicle through which the capitalist culture indoctrinates the ideas of competition for the intangibles (love,…

  8. Essays on Applied Resource Economics Using Bioeconomic Optimization Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Affuso, Ermanno

    With rising demographic growth, there is increasing interest in analytical studies that assess alternative policies to provide an optimal allocation of scarce natural resources while ensuring environmental sustainability. This dissertation consists of three essays in applied resource economics that are interconnected methodologically within the agricultural production sector of Economics. The first chapter examines the sustainability of biofuels by simulating and evaluating an agricultural voluntary program that aims to increase the land use efficiency in the production of biofuels of first generation in the state of Alabama. The results show that participatory decisions may increase the net energy value of biofuels by 208% and reduce emissions by 26%; significantly contributing to the state energy goals. The second chapter tests the hypothesis of overuse of fertilizers and pesticides in U.S. peanut farming with respect to other inputs and address genetic research to reduce the use of the most overused chemical input. The findings suggest that peanut producers overuse fungicide with respect to any other input and that fungi resistant genetically engineered peanuts may increase the producer welfare up to 36.2%. The third chapter implements a bioeconomic model, which consists of a biophysical model and a stochastic dynamic recursive model that is used to measure potential economic and environmental welfare of cotton farmers derived from a rotation scheme that uses peanut as a complementary crop. The results show that the rotation scenario would lower farming costs by 14% due to nitrogen credits from prior peanut land use and reduce non-point source pollution from nitrogen runoff by 6.13% compared to continuous cotton farming.

  9. Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

  10. Economical Recovery of By-products in the Mining Industry

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, J.B.

    2001-12-05

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Industrial Technologies, Mining Industry of the Future Program, works with the mining industry to further the industry's advances toward environmental and economic goals. Two of these goals are (1) responsible emission and by-product management and (2) low-cost and efficient production (DOE 1998). DOE formed an alliance with the National Mining Association (NMA) to strengthen the basis for research projects conducted to benefit the mining industry. NMA and industry representatives actively participate in this alliance by evaluating project proposals and by recommending research project selection to DOE. Similarly, the National Research Council (NRC) has recently and independently recommended research and technology development opportunities in the mining industry (NRC 2001). The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Colorado School of Mines engineers conducted one such project for DOE regarding by -product recovery from mining process residue. The results of this project include this report on mining industry process residue and waste with opportunity for by-product recovery. The U.S. mineral processing industry produces over 30,000,000 metric tons per year of process residue and waste that may contain hazardous species as well as valuable by-products. This study evaluates the copper, lead, and zinc commodity sectors which generate between 23,300,000 and 24,000,000 metric tons per year. The distribution of residual elements in process residues and wastes varies over wide ranges* because of variations in the original ore content as it is extracted from the earth's crust. In the earth's crust, the elements of interest to mining fall into two general geochemical classifications, lithophiles and chalcophiles** (Cox 1997). Groups of elements are almost always present together in a given geochemical classification, but the relative amounts of each element are unique to a particular ore body. This paper generally describes

  11. Economics of sugar production with Trichoderma reesei Rutgers C-30

    SciTech Connect

    Perez, J.; Wilke, C.R.; Blanch, H.W.

    1980-08-01

    The economics of sugar production from bioconversion of corn stover utilizing cellulase obtained from Trichoderma reesei strain Rutgers C-30 were investigated. The cost of manufacturing sugar is 10.5 cents per pound. This reduced cost is due to cellulase activities ranging from 7 to 14 IU/ml from batch cultures and from 3.5 to 6 IU/ml from continuous cultures. Hydrolysis can be carried out at substrate concentrations up to 25% and give product streams containing up to 15% sugars. This corresponds to a maximum yield of 86%. A sensitivity analysis indicates that sugar can be produced at near competitive prices from corn stover costing $0 to $50 per ton. By utilizing new fermentation technology, sugar at these prices can be used to produce 95% alcohol at a cost ranging from $1.80 to $3.00 per gallon.

  12. Optimizing cultivation of agricultural products using socio-economic and environmental scenarios.

    PubMed

    RaheliNamin, Behnaz; Mortazavi, Samar; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul

    2016-11-01

    The combination of degrading natural conditions and resources, climate change, growing population, urban development, and competition in a global market complicate optimization of land for agricultural products. The use of pesticides and fertilizers for crop production in the agricultural fields has become excessive in the recent years and Golestan Province of Iran is no exception in this regard. For this, effective management with an efficient and cost-effective practice should be undertaken, maintaining public service at a high level and preserving the environment. Improving the production efficiency of agriculture, efficient use of water resources, decreasing the use of pesticides and fertilizers, improving farmer revenue, and conservation of natural resources are the main objectives of the allocation, ranking, and optimization of agricultural products. The goal of this paper is to use an optimization procedure to lower the negative effects of agriculture while maintaining a high production rate, which is currently a gap in the study area. We collected information about fertilizer and pesticide consumption and other data in croplands of eastern Golestan Province through face-to-face interviews with farmers to optimize cultivation of the agricultural products. The toxicity of pesticides according to LD50 was also included in the optimization model. A decision-support software system called multiple criteria analysis tool was used to simultaneously minimize consumption of water, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides and maximize socio-economic returns. Three scenarios for optimization of agricultural products were generated that alternatively emphasized on environmental and socio-economic goals. Comparing socio-economic and environmental performance of the optimized agricultural products under the three scenarios illustrated the conflict between social, economic, and environmental objectives. Of the six crops studied (wheat, barley, rice, soybeans, oilseed rape

  13. Manufacturing economic outlook for production of electric vehicle

    SciTech Connect

    Patten, J.A.; Murthy, M.; Cheung, N.N.Y.; Hartgen, D.T.

    1994-12-31

    Results of a study on the manufacturing of components of electric vehicles (EVs) in North Carolina are reported. Data are obtained from a consumer survey to ascertain the level of customer interest in EVs, coupled with data related to automobile manufacturing. The model uses input/output analysis for the EV manufacturing sector. An estimate is also made of the value of the potential economic impact (salaries of employees) of NC`s share of the total US manufacturing of EVs. The total US manufacturing effort for EVs was evaluated at the present California mandated levels of 2, 5 and 10% levels. This analysis indicates the NC manufacturing economic impact to be $8.6--$86 million annually, over the range of number of vehicles and vehicle cost. The range of the NC economic impacts went from a loss of $2--$10 million in carburators, pistons and rings to a gain of $19--$95 million for electric motors/generators. The above points out significant and potentially negative impact of EVs for certain automobile component industries. This suggests that in regions not participating in the development of EV manufacturing, the potential loss of manufacturing (due to the replacement of internal combustion engine vehicles by EVs) could be substantial. Suggestions are made to reduce this impact.

  14. Assessing the Economic Viability of Bio-based Products for Missouri Value-added Crop Production

    SciTech Connect

    Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes

    2005-11-30

    While research and development on biobased products has continued strong over the years, parallel attention on the economics and management of such product innovation has been lacking. With the financial support of the Department of Energy, the Economics and Management of Agrobiotechnology Center at the University of Missouri-Columbia has launched a pilot graduate education program that seeks to fill the gap. Within this context, a multi-disciplinary research and teaching program has been structured with an emphasis on new product and innovation economics and management. More specifically, this pilot graduate education program has the following major objectives: (1) To provide students with a strong background in innovation economics, management, and strategy. (2) To diversify the students academic background with coursework in science and technology. (3) To familiarize the student with biobased policy initiatives through interaction with state and national level organizations and policymakers. (4) To facilitate active collaboration with industry involved in the development and production of biobased products. The pilot education program seeks to develop human capital and research output. Although the research is, initially, focused on issues related to the State of Missouri, the results are expected to have national implications for the economy, producers, consumers and environment.

  15. Modeling of the Gross Regional Product on the Basis of Production Functions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sadovin, Nikolay S.; Kokotkina, Tatiana N.; Barkalova, Tatiana G.; Tsaregorodsev, Evgeny I.

    2016-01-01

    The article is devoted to elaboration and construction of a static model of macroeconomics in which economics is considered as an unstructured holistic unit, the input of which receives the resources, and the output is the result of the functioning of economics in the form of gross domestic product or gross regional product. Resources are…

  16. Global economic burden of Chagas disease: a computational simulation model

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Bruce Y; Bacon, Kristina M; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Summary Background As Chagas disease continues to expand beyond tropical and subtropical zones, a growing need exists to better understand its resulting economic burden to help guide stakeholders such as policy makers, funders, and product developers. We developed a Markov simulation model to estimate the global and regional health and economic burden of Chagas disease from the societal perspective. Methods Our Markov model structure had a 1 year cycle length and consisted of five states: acute disease, indeterminate disease, cardiomyopathy with or without congestive heart failure, megaviscera, and death. Major model parameter inputs, including the annual probabilities of transitioning from one state to another, and present case estimates for Chagas disease came from various sources, including WHO and other epidemiological and disease-surveillance-based reports. We calculated annual and lifetime health-care costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for individuals, countries, and regions. We used a discount rate of 3% to adjust all costs and DALYs to present-day values. Findings On average, an infected individual incurs US$474 in health-care costs and 0·51 DALYs annually. Over his or her lifetime, an infected individual accrues an average net present value of $3456 and 3·57 DALYs. Globally, the annual burden is $627·46 million in health-care costs and 806 170 DALYs. The global net present value of currently infected individuals is $24·73 billion in health-care costs and 29 385 250 DALYs. Conversion of this burden into costs results in annual per-person costs of $4660 and lifetime per-person costs of $27 684. Global costs are $7·19 billion per year and $188·80 billion per lifetime. More than 10% of these costs emanate from the USA and Canada, where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic. A substantial proportion of the burden emerges from lost productivity from cardiovascular disease-induced early mortality. Interpretation The economic burden

  17. Metropolitan and state economic regions (MASTER) model - overview

    SciTech Connect

    Adams, R.C.; Moe, R.J.; Scott, M.J.

    1983-05-01

    The Metropolitan and State Economic Regions (MASTER) model is a unique multi-regional economic model designed to forecast regional economic activity and assess the regional economic impacts caused by national and regional economic changes (e.g., interest rate fluctuations, energy price changes, construction and operation of a nuclear waste storage facility, shutdown of major industrial operations). MASTER can be applied to any or all of the 268 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) and 48 non-SMSA rest-of-state-areas (ROSAs) in the continental US. The model can also be applied to any or all of the continental US counties and states. This report is divided into four sections: capabilities and applications of the MASTER model, development of the model, model simulation, and validation testing.

  18. An economic order quantity model with shortage and inflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wulan, Elis Ratna; Nurjaman, Wildan

    2015-09-01

    The effect of inflation has become a persistent characteristic and more significant problem of many developing economies especially in the third world countries. While making effort to achieve optimal quantity of product to be produced or purchased using the simplest and on the shelf classical EOQ model, the non-inclusion of conflicting economic realities as shortage and inflation has rendered its result quite uneconomical and hence the purpose for this study. Mathematical expression was developed for each of the cost components the sum of which become the total inventory model over the period (0,L) ((TIC(0,L)). L is planning horizon and TIC(0,L) is total inventory cost over a period of (0,L). Significant savings with increase in quantity was achieved based on deference in the varying price regime. With the assumptions considered and subject to the availability of reliable inventory cost element, the developed model is found to produce a feasible, and economic inventory stock-level with the numerical example of a material supply of a manufacturing company.

  19. The global historical and future economic loss and cost of earthquakes during the production of adaptive worldwide economic fragility functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    macroseismic intensity, capital stock estimate, GDP estimate, year and the combined seismic building index (a created combination of the global seismic code index, building practice factor, building age and infrastructure vulnerability). The analysis provided three key results: a) The production of economic fragility functions from the 1900-2008 events showed very good correlation to the economic loss and cost from earthquakes from 2009-2013, in real-time. This methodology has been extended to other natural disaster types (typhoon, flood, drought). b) The reanalysis of historical earthquake events in order to check associated historical loss and costs versus the expected exposure in terms of intensities. The 1939 Chillan, 1948 Turkmenistan, 1950 Iran, 1972 Managua, 1980 Western Nepal and 1992 Erzincan earthquake events were seen as huge outliers compared with the modelled capital stock and GDP and thus additional studies were undertaken to check the original loss results. c) A worldwide GIS layer database of capital stock (gross and net), GDP, infrastructure age and economic indices over the period 1900-2013 have been created in conjunction with the CATDAT database in order to define correct economic loss and costs.

  20. Scale-up and economic analysis of biodiesel production from municipal primary sewage sludge.

    PubMed

    Olkiewicz, Magdalena; Torres, Carmen M; Jiménez, Laureano; Font, Josep; Bengoa, Christophe

    2016-08-01

    Municipal wastewater sludge is a promising lipid feedstock for biodiesel production, but the need to eliminate the high water content before lipid extraction is the main limitation for scaling up. This study evaluates the economic feasibility of biodiesel production directly from liquid primary sludge based on experimental data at laboratory scale. Computational tools were used for the modelling of the process scale-up and the different configurations of lipid extraction to optimise this step, as it is the most expensive. The operational variables with a major influence in the cost were the extraction time and the amount of solvent. The optimised extraction process had a break-even price of biodiesel of 1232 $/t, being economically competitive with the current cost of fossil diesel. The proposed biodiesel production process from waste sludge eliminates the expensive step of sludge drying, lowering the biodiesel price.

  1. Production of butyl solvents from lignocellulose: An economic analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wright, J D; Daling, R; Sandel, R L; Fitzpatrick, S W

    1986-11-01

    A process is described that produces butyl solvents, butanol, isopropanol, and ethanol from wood or other lignocellulosic feedstock. Two new elements of technology introduced are the processing batch reactor developed at SERI that produces high yields of fermentable sugars (hexoses and pentoses) at the appropriate concentration for the butyl solvents fermentation and a novel method of separating products using liquid-liquid extraction, which reduces the separation energy required to about 30% of energy required in the conventional batch method. Economic analysis suggests that the project is attractive at a feedstock capacity of 400,000 dry MTA or larger (178 million lb/yr solvents). There are, however, uncertainties associated with the project because of the relatively early stage of development of the key elements of the process technology and the sensitivity of the DCFIROR to estimated capital cost. A further conclusion is that the process economics would benefit greatly from reduced capital cost of the fermentation section. This could perhaps be accomplished by developing a continuous fermentation process. Such fermentation technology has been demonstrated on laboratory scale, but as far as is known, has not been developed to pilot scale. 21 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  2. Stokes integral of economic growth. Calculus and the Solow model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mimkes, Jürgen

    2010-04-01

    Economic growth depends on capital and labor and two-dimensional calculus has been applied to economic theory. This leads to Riemann and Stokes integrals and to the first and second laws of production and growth. The mathematical structure is the same as in thermodynamics, economic properties may be related to physical terms: capital to energy, production to physical work, GDP per capita to temperature, production function to entropy. This is called econophysics. Production, trade and banking may be compared to motors, heat pumps or refrigerators. The Carnot process of the first law creates two levels in each system: cold and hot in physics; buyer and seller, investor and saver, rich and poor in economics. The efficiency rises with the income difference of rich and poor. The results of econophysics are compared to neoclassical theory.

  3. Black liquor fractionation for biofuels production - a techno-economic assessment.

    PubMed

    Mesfun, Sennai; Lundgren, Joakim; Grip, Carl-Erik; Toffolo, Andrea; Nilsson, Rasika Lasanthi Kudahettige; Rova, Ulrika

    2014-08-01

    The hemicelluloses fraction of black liquor is an underutilized resource in many chemical pulp mills. It is possible to extract and separate the lignin and hemicelluloses from the black liquor and use the hemicelluloses for biochemical conversion into biofuels and chemicals. Precipitation of the lignin from the black liquor would consequently decrease the thermal load on the recovery boiler, which is often referred to as a bottleneck for increased pulp production. The objective of this work is to techno-economically evaluate the production of sodium-free lignin as a solid fuel and butanol to be used as fossil gasoline replacement by fractionating black liquor. The hydrolysis and fermentation processes are modeled in Aspen Plus to analyze energy and material balances as well as to evaluate the plant economics. A mathematical model of an existing pulp and paper mill is used to analyze the effects on the energy performance of the mill subprocesses.

  4. Supercritical biodiesel production and power cogeneration: technical and economic feasibilities.

    PubMed

    Deshpande, A; Anitescu, G; Rice, P A; Tavlarides, L L

    2010-03-01

    An integrated supercritical fluid technology with power cogeneration to produce biodiesel fuels, with no need for the costly separations involved with the conventional technology, is proposed, documented for technical and economic feasibility, and preliminarily designed. The core of the integrated system consists of the transesterification of various triglyceride sources (e.g., vegetable oils and animal fats) with supercritical methanol/ethanol. Part of the reaction products can be combusted by a diesel power generator integrated in the system which, in turn, provides the power needed to pressurize the system and the heat of the exhaust gases necessary in the transesterification step. The latter energy demand can also be satisfied by a fired heater, especially for higher plant capacities. Different versions of this system can be implemented based on the main target of the technology: biodiesel production or diesel engine applications, including power generation. The process options considered for biodiesel fuel production estimate break-even processing costs of biodiesel as low as $0.26/gal ($0.07/L) with a diesel power generator and $0.35/gal ($0.09/L) with a fired heater for a plant capacity of 15,000 gal/day (56,775 L/day). Both are significantly lower than the current processing costs of approximately $0.51/gal ($0.13/L) of biodiesel produced by conventional catalytic methods. A retail cost of biodiesel produced by the proposed method is likely to be competitive with the prices of diesel fuels.

  5. Economic costs of chronic disease through lost productive life years (PLYs) among Australians aged 45–64 years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model

    PubMed Central

    Schofield, Deborah; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Cunich, Michelle M; Tanton, Robert; Veerman, Lennert; Kelly, Simon J

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To project the number of older workers with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to chronic disease and resultant lost income; and lost taxes and increased welfare payments from 2015 to 2030. Design, setting and participants Using a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, the costs of chronic disease in Australians aged 45–64 were projected to 2030. The model integrates household survey data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDACs) 2003 and 2009, output from long-standing microsimulation models (STINMOD (Static Incomes Model) and APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model)) used by various government departments, population and labour force growth data from Treasury, and disease trends data from the Australian Burden of Disease and Injury Study (2003). Respondents aged 45–64 years in the SDACs 2003 and 2009 formed the base population. Main outcome measures Lost PLYs due to chronic disease; resultant lost income, lost taxes and increased welfare payments in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. Results We projected 380 000 (6.4%) people aged 45–64 years with lost PLYs in 2015, increasing to 462 000 (6.5%) in 2030—a 22% increase in absolute numbers. Those with lost PLYs experience the largest reduction in income than any other group in each year compared to those employed full time without a chronic disease, and this income gap widens over time. The total economic loss due to lost PLYs consisted of lost income modelled at $A12.6 billion in 2015, increasing to $A20.5 billion in 2030—a 62.7% increase. Additional costs to the government consisted of increased welfare payments at $A6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to $A7.3 billion in 2030—a 17.7% increase; and a loss of $A3.1 billion in taxes in 2015, increasing to $A4.7 billion in 2030—a growth of 51.6%. Conclusions There is a need for greater investment in effective preventive health interventions which improve workers’ health

  6. Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Ogawa, N

    1982-01-01

    This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

  7. Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

    1974-01-01

    A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

  8. TOWARD EFFICIENT RIPARIAN RESTORATION: INTEGRATING ECONOMIC, PHYSICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper integrates economic, biological, and physical models to determine the efficient combination and spatial allocation of conservation efforts for water quality protection and salmonid habitat enhancement in the Grande Ronde basin, Oregon. The integrated modeling system co...

  9. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

    SciTech Connect

    Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

    2010-06-01

    A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

  10. Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

    SciTech Connect

    Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

    2004-08-01

    We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

  11. The Production, Consumption and Distribution of Economic Podcasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swan, Kathy; Hofer, Mark; Swan, Gerry; Mazur, Joan

    2010-01-01

    Podcasting remains one of the hot "buzz words" in technology today--both in and out of schools. For high school economics teachers, there is a growing number of podcasts targeted for instruction on economics. While the podcasts can be useful resources for teachers trying to enhance students' economic thinking, they are not produced…

  12. Folding Our Way to Productivity. Active Learning Lessons. Economics International.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baranova, Daira; Bottomoley, Alice; Brock, John; Shappo, Natalia

    This lesson plan was developed through "Economics International," an international program to help build economic education infrastructures in the emerging market economies. It provides a lesson description; economic concepts; content standards and benchmarks; related subject areas; instructional objectives; time required for lesson…

  13. The production economics of nursing: a discussion paper.

    PubMed

    Newbold, David

    2008-01-01

    Nursing is numerically the largest health profession providing direct care, and this, plus the imperative for effective cost control, makes their costs and impact a legitimate study focus and policy target. Production theory techniques can help nurse executives maximize outcome and minimize costs, yet little of such evidence currently exists in mainstream nursing workforce research. The balance of available evidence supports an inverse association between nurse staffing levels and adverse outcomes. However, 'adequate' staffing levels may be perceived as expensive and some providers may try to reduce them. The response, in some US and Australian states, is legislation to force hospitals to implement mandatory minimum patient-to-nurse (P/N) ratios. In this paper, existing data from Aiken et al. [2003. Education levels of hospital nurses and patient mortality. Journal of the American Medical Association 290, 1617-1623] is re-interpreted using production theory, to illustrate the possible relationship between two key workforce variables "Staff Level" and "Staff Mix", and clinical outcome, and show how this informs decision making. Consistent with other studies, this suggests that diminishing returns to each variable exist. This preliminary analysis suggests that increasing the number of graduate RNs in the workforce might be the most cost-effective way to expand the nursing workforce. However, more detailed and rigorous research is needed to estimate speciality specific cost and production functions and compute the optimal solution. This can predict the most cost-effective staff combination for a set outcome, or the set of inputs yielding best outcome for a given budget. With this, nurse executives can systematically maintain service quality or safety in the most economical way.

  14. Estimation of economic impacts of cellulosic biofuel production: a comparative analysis of three biofuel pathways: Economic impacts of biofuel production

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yimin; Goldberg, Marshall; Tan, Eric; Meyer, Pimphan Aye

    2016-03-07

    The development of a cellulosic biofuel industry utilizing domestic biomass resources is expected to create opportunities for economic growth resulting from the construction and operation of new biorefineries. We applied an economic input-output model to estimate potential economic impacts, particularly gross job growth, resulting from the construction and operation of biorefineries using three different technology pathways: 1) cellulosic ethanol via biochemical conversion in Iowa, 2) renewable diesel blendstock via biological conversion in Georgia, and 3) renewable diesel and gasoline blendstock via fast pyrolysis in Mississippi. Combining direct, indirect, and induced effects, capital investment associated with the construction of a biorefinery processing 2,000 dry metric tons of biomass per day (DMT/day) could yield between 5,960 and 8,470 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs during the construction period. Fast pyrolysis biorefineries produce the most jobs on a project level thanks to the highest capital requirement among the three pathways. Normalized for one million dollars of capital investment, the fast pyrolysis biorefineries are estimated to yield slighter more jobs (12.1 jobs) than the renewable diesel (11.8 jobs) and the cellulosic ethanol (11.6 jobs) biorefineries. While operating biorefineries is not labor-intensive, the annual operation of a 2,000 DMT/day biorefinery could support between 720 and 970 jobs when the direct, indirect, and induced effects are considered. The major factor, which results in the variations among the three pathways, is the type of biomass feedstock used for biofuels. The agriculture/forest, services, and trade industries are the primary sectors that will benefit from the ongoing operation of biorefineries.

  15. Community Colleges and Economic Development: Models of Institutional Effectiveness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katsinas, Stephen G.; Lacey, Vincent A.

    An overview is provided of the nontraditional, direct involvement of community colleges in economic development activities. While a review of the literature and a discussion of the factors leading to community colleges' participation in economic development are included, the primary focus of the monograph is on seven models of nontraditional…

  16. A Model of the Economic Theory of Regulation for Undergraduates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Brooks

    1995-01-01

    Presents a model of the economic theory of regulation and recommends its use in undergraduate economics classes. Describes the use of computer-assisted instruction to teach the theory. Maintains that the approach enables students to gain access to graphs and tables that they produce themselves. (CFR)

  17. Barriers to knowledge production, knowledge translation, and urban health policy change: ideological, economic, and political considerations.

    PubMed

    Muntaner, Carles; Chung, Haejoo; Murphy, Kelly; Ng, Edwin

    2012-12-01

    In this paper, we consider social forces that affect the processes of both knowledge production and knowledge translation in relation to urban health research. First, we briefly review our conceptual model, derived from a social-conflict framework, to outline how unequal power relations and health inequalities are causally linked. Second, we critically discuss ideological, political, and economic barriers that exist within academia that affect knowledge production related to urban health and health inequalities. Third, we broaden the scope of our analysis to examine how the ideological, political, and economic environment beyond the academy creates barriers to health equity policy making. We conclude with some key questions about the role that knowledge translation can possibly play in light of these constraints on research and policy for urban health.

  18. Techno-economic analysis of monosaccharide production via fast pyrolysis of lignocellulose.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yanan; Brown, Tristan R; Hu, Guiping; Brown, Robert C

    2013-01-01

    The economic feasibility of a facility producing monosaccharides, hydrogen and transportation fuels via fast pyrolysis and upgrading pathway was evaluated by modeling a 2000 dry metric ton biomass/day facility using Aspen Plus®. Equipment sizing and cost were based on Aspen Economic Evaluation® software. The results indicate that monosaccharide production capacity could reach 338 metric tons/day. Co-product yields of hydrogen and gasoline were 23.4 and 141 metric tons/day, respectively. The total installed equipment and total capital costs were estimated to be $210 million and $326 million, respectively. A facility internal rate of return (IRR) of 11.4% based on market prices of $3.33/kg hydrogen, $2.92/gal gasoline and diesel, $0.64/kg monosaccharide was calculated. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that fixed capital cost, feedstock cost, product yields, and product credits have the greatest impacts on facility IRR. Further research is needed to optimize yield of sugar via the proposed process to improve economic feasibility.

  19. Preliminary Economics for the Production of Pyrolysis Oil from Lignin in a Cellulosic Ethanol Biorefinery

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, Susanne B.; Zhu, Yunhua

    2009-04-01

    price of $1.33 for the 2012 goal case process as reported in the 2007 State of Technology Model (NREL 2008). Hence, pyrolysis oil does not appear to be an economically attractive product in this scenario. Further research regarding fast pyrolysis of raw lignin from a cellulosic plant as an end product is not recommended. Other processes, such as high-pressure liquefaction or wet gasification, and higher value products, such as gasoline and diesel from fast pyrolysis oil should be considered in future studies.

  20. The economic aspects of artificial snow production in the perspective of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonseth, C.

    2012-04-01

    levels that are not optimal in the sense that they do not maximize social welfare. More generally, economic analysis has the potential to explain current investment and snow production levels and to determine optimal ones. It can also predict the evolution of these levels under a warmer climate. For instance, such predictions were carried out for Switzerland as well as for other Alpine countries using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy with a time horizon up to 2050, the GEMINI-E3 model. With all these points in mind, this presentation aims at reviewing what has been done so far on the economic aspects of artificial snow production and also at identifying avenues for future research.

  1. The Changing Economic Model of Scholarly Publishing: Uncertainty, Complexity and Multi-media Serials.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, John

    1998-01-01

    Discusses scholarly publishing, comparing traditional, 80s, and present models of scholarly publishing; outlines economic factors characterizing the models: costs of production, subscription decline, numbers of articles published, editorial expenses and fees, office expenses, pressure for profit, start-up costs of new journals; and describes how…

  2. Hydro-economic Modeling: Reducing the Gap between Large Scale Simulation and Optimization Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forni, L.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Purkey, D.; Joyce, B. A.; Sieber, J.; Howitt, R.

    2012-12-01

    The integration of hydrological and socio economic components into hydro-economic models has become essential for water resources policy and planning analysis. In this study we integrate the economic value of water in irrigated agricultural production using SWAP (a StateWide Agricultural Production Model for California), and WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) a climate driven hydrological model. The integration of the models is performed using a step function approximation of water demand curves from SWAP, and by relating the demand tranches to the priority scheme in WEAP. In order to do so, a modified version of SWAP was developed called SWEAP that has the Planning Area delimitations of WEAP, a Maximum Entropy Model to estimate evenly sized steps (tranches) of water derived demand functions, and the translation of water tranches into crop land. In addition, a modified version of WEAP was created called ECONWEAP with minor structural changes for the incorporation of land decisions from SWEAP and series of iterations run via an external VBA script. This paper shows the validity of this integration by comparing revenues from WEAP vs. ECONWEAP as well as an assessment of the approximation of tranches. Results show a significant increase in the resulting agricultural revenues for our case study in California's Central Valley using ECONWEAP while maintaining the same hydrology and regional water flows. These results highlight the gains from allocating water based on its economic compared to priority-based water allocation systems. Furthermore, this work shows the potential of integrating optimization and simulation-based hydrologic models like ECONWEAP.ercentage difference in total agricultural revenues (EconWEAP versus WEAP).

  3. A physical and economic model of the nuclear fuel cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Erich Alfred

    A model of the nuclear fuel cycle that is suitable for use in strategic planning and economic forecasting is presented. The model, to be made available as a stand-alone software package, requires only a small set of fuel cycle and reactor specific input parameters. Critical design criteria include ease of use by nonspecialists, suppression of errors to within a range dictated by unit cost uncertainties, and limitation of runtime to under one minute on a typical desktop computer. Collision probability approximations to the neutron transport equation that lead to a computationally efficient decoupling of the spatial and energy variables are presented and implemented. The energy dependent flux, governed by coupled integral equations, is treated by multigroup or continuous thermalization methods. The model's output includes a comprehensive nuclear materials flowchart that begins with ore requirements, calculates the buildup of 24 actinides as well as fission products, and concludes with spent fuel or reprocessed material composition. The costs, direct and hidden, of the fuel cycle under study are also computed. In addition to direct disposal and plutonium recycling strategies in current use, the model addresses hypothetical cycles. These include cycles chosen for minor actinide burning and for their low weapons-usable content.

  4. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    S. Hendrickson; S.Tegen

    2009-12-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local(usually state) level. First developed by NREL's Wind Powering America program to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to biofuels,concentrating solar power, coal, and natural gas power plants.

  5. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  6. A proposed tool to integrate environmental and economical assessments of products

    SciTech Connect

    Senthil, Kumaran D.; Ong, S.K.; Nee, A.Y.C.; Tan, Reginald B.H

    2003-01-01

    An attempt has been made to interpret the outcomes of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in terms of environmental costs. This attempt ensures the environmental accountability of the products while LCA ensures their eco-friendly nature. Keeping this as an objective, a Life Cycle Environmental Cost Analysis (LCECA) model was developed. This new tool incorporates costing into the LCA practice. This model prescribes a life cycle environmental cost model to estimate and correlate the effects of these costs in all the life cycle stages of the product. The newly developed categories of eco-costs are: costs of effluent treatment/control/disposal, environmental management systems, eco-taxes, rehabilitation, energy and savings of recycling and reuse strategies. The mathematical model of LCECA determines quantitative expressions between the total cost of products and the various eco-costs. The eco-costs of the alternatives are compared with the computational LCECA model. This method enables the environmental as well as the economic assessment of products, which leads to cost-effective, eco-friendly design of products.

  7. An Educational Production Function for Principles of Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manahan, Jerry

    1983-01-01

    Empirical evidence analyzed indicates that achievement of college students in economics is predicted by age, student ability, and quality of instruction. Their attitudes towards economics are explained by several socioeconomic variables, the students' perceptions of the quality of instruction, and the changes in the students' expected grades.…

  8. External Economic Drivers and U.S. Agricultural Production Systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    U.S agriculture operates in a market driven economy. As with other businesses, agricultural producers respond to economic incentives and disincentives and make decisions to maximize their welfare. In this paper we examine external economic drivers that shape agricultural systems. Specifically, we c...

  9. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, J.; Prskawetz, A.; Grass, D.; Blöschl, G.

    2015-06-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  10. Multi-basin, Multi-sector Drought Economic Impact Model in Python: Development and Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Bearden, B.; Johnson, T. G.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most economically disastrous natural hazards, one whose impacts are exacerbated by the lack of abrupt onset and offset that define tornados and hurricanes. In the United States, about 30 billion dollars losses is caused by drought in 2012, resulting in widespread economic impacts for societies, industries, agriculture, and recreation. And in California, the drought cost statewide economic losses about 2.2 billion, with a total loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs. Driven by a variety of factors including climate change, population growth, increased water demands, alteration to land cover, drought occurs widely all over the world. Drought economic consequence assessment tool are greatly needed to allow decision makers and stakeholders to anticipate and manage effectively. In this study, current drought economic impact modeling methods were reviewed. Most of these models only deal with the impact in the agricultural sector with a focus on a single basin; few of these models analyze long term impact. However, drought impacts are rarely restricted to basin boundaries, and cascading economic impacts are likely to be significant. A holistic approach to multi-basin, multi-sector drought economic impact assessment is needed.In this work, we developed a new model for drought economic impact assessment, Drought Economic Impact Model in Python (PyDEM). This model classified all business establishments into thirteen categories based on NAICS, and using a continuous dynamic social accounting matrix approach, coupled with calculation of the indirect consequences for the local and regional economies and the various resilience. In addition, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model was combined for analyzing drought caused soil erosion together with agriculture production, and then the long term impacts of drought were achieved. A visible output of this model was presented in GIS. In this presentation, Choctawhatchee-Pea-Yellow River Basins, Alabama

  11. Economic analysis of open space box model utilization in spacecraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammad, Atif F.; Straub, Jeremy

    2015-05-01

    It is a known fact that the amount of data about space that is stored is getting larger on an everyday basis. However, the utilization of Big Data and related tools to perform ETL (Extract, Transform and Load) applications will soon be pervasive in the space sciences. We have entered in a crucial time where using Big Data can be the difference (for terrestrial applications) between organizations underperforming and outperforming their peers. The same is true for NASA and other space agencies, as well as for individual missions and the highly-competitive process of mission data analysis and publication. In most industries, conventional opponents and new candidates alike will influence data-driven approaches to revolutionize and capture the value of Big Data archives. The Open Space Box Model is poised to take the proverbial "giant leap", as it provides autonomic data processing and communications for spacecraft. We can find economic value generated from such use of data processing in our earthly organizations in every sector, such as healthcare, retail. We also can easily find retailers, performing research on Big Data, by utilizing sensors driven embedded data in products within their stores and warehouses to determine how these products are actually used in the real world.

  12. Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

    PubMed

    Damos, Petros

    2014-05-01

    The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels.

  13. Stochastic Modeling of Economic Injury Levels with Respect to Yearly Trends in Price Commodity

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010–2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. PMID:25373206

  14. NEUROBIOLOGY OF ECONOMIC CHOICE: A GOOD-BASED MODEL

    PubMed Central

    Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

    2012-01-01

    Traditionally the object of economic theory and experimental psychology, economic choice recently became a lively research focus in systems neuroscience. Here I summarize the emerging results and I propose a unifying model of how economic choice might function at the neural level. Economic choice entails comparing options that vary on multiple dimensions. Hence, while choosing, individuals integrate different determinants into a subjective value; decisions are then made by comparing values. According to the good-based model, the values of different goods are computed independently of one another, which implies transitivity. Values are not learned as such, but rather computed at the time of choice. Most importantly, values are compared within the space of goods, independent of the sensori-motor contingencies of choice. Evidence from neurophysiology, imaging and lesion studies indicates that abstract representations of value exist in the orbitofrontal and ventromedial prefrontal cortices. The computation and comparison of values may thus take place within these regions. PMID:21456961

  15. Integrated Economic Modeling of Water Supply-Quality Tradeoffs: An Application to the Central Valley, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bair, L.; MacEwan, D.

    2015-12-01

    Sustainable water management in the San Joaquin Valley, California involves the complex interaction of agricultural, municipal and industrial, and environmental water use. California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 requires groundwater basins historically in a state of overdraft to bring the basin into a sustainable balance over the next 20 years. In addition to limiting groundwater availability, implementation of the SGMA has implications for surface and groundwater quality. Availability of groundwater influences agricultural production decisions, resulting in variation in agricultural runoff and changes to surface and groundwater quality. Changes in water quality have economic impacts on agricultural production and urban water use. These impacts range from reductions in crop productivity to costs of alternative water supplies to amend declining water quality. We model the impact of agricultural and urban groundwater availability on surface water quality within the San Joaquin and Kings River watersheds in the Central Valley, downriver to the Mendota Pool by linking SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), an integrated water supply-quality model, with SWAP (Statewide Agricultural Production Model), a regional agricultural economics model. The integrated model specifies the relationship between changes in groundwater availability, groundwater elevation, agricultural production, and surface water quality. We link the SWAT-SWAP model output to urban and agricultural economic loss calculations that are a function of water quality. Model results demonstrate the economic tradeoffs between groundwater availability and water quality. The results of the integrated economic water supply-quality model are applicable to other regions in California and elsewhere that contain complex water supply-quality interactions.

  16. Spatial Modeling of Indian Agriculture, Economic Activity and Population under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCord, G. C.

    2010-12-01

    We present a spatial model of economic activity and human population built on physical geography that takes particular account of its effects through agricultural productivity and transport costs for trade. A major component of this work is an agricultural model, driven in part by high-resolution climate data and model output. We put forward India as the initial region for this modeling work; India is a relatively data-rich country, it exhibits significant within-country spatial and temporal variation in agricultural productivity, urbanization rates, and population growth rates, and the climate dynamics of the monsoon are well-studied and expected to change on decadal time scales. Agricultural productivity is modeled as a function of soil, climate, and technology variables. Farmers locate optimally given varying geography and transport costs; in turn, food availability defines urbanization rates and economic activity in non-agricultural sectors. This “social system” integrated assessment model is a step towards a valuable policy tool, but requires a significant mobilization of data and a grid-cell-level system of equations to describe the underlying dynamics of the model. We test against past trends of social-natural system progression in demography, human location, income, food production, etc., and argue that the model could be used to assess future trends under varying climate change scenarios, and eventually serve to model feedbacks through effects on migration, population growth rates, or economic activity.

  17. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

  18. Model Learner Outcomes for Home Economics Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogers, Cheryl, Ed.; And Others

    Chapter 1 of this document contains sets of statements adopted by either the Minnesota State Board of Education or the Minnesota State Legislature. They represent the hierarchy used by Department of Education staff as they develop model learner outcomes for each subject area. Contents include learner values, education system values, philosophy for…

  19. Full employment and competition in the Aspen economic model: implications for modeling acts of terrorism.

    SciTech Connect

    Sprigg, James A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew

    2004-11-01

    Acts of terrorism could have a range of broad impacts on an economy, including changes in consumer (or demand) confidence and the ability of productive sectors to respond to changes. As a first step toward a model of terrorism-based impacts, we develop here a model of production and employment that characterizes dynamics in ways useful toward understanding how terrorism-based shocks could propagate through the economy; subsequent models will introduce the role of savings and investment into the economy. We use Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool developed at Sandia, to demonstrate for validation purposes that a single-firm economy converges to the known monopoly equilibrium price, output, and employment levels, while multiple-firm economies converge toward the competitive equilibria typified by lower prices and higher output and employment. However, we find that competition also leads to churn by consumers seeking lower prices, making it difficult for firms to optimize with respect to wages, prices, and employment levels. Thus, competitive firms generate market ''noise'' in the steady state as they search for prices and employment levels that will maximize profits. In the context of this model, not only could terrorism depress overall consumer confidence and economic activity but terrorist acts could also cause normal short-run dynamics to be misinterpreted by consumers as a faltering economy.

  20. 50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL... EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE OFF ALASKA Pt. 680, Table 3c Table 3c to Part 680—Crab Product Codes for...

  1. Economics.

    PubMed

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation.

  2. Army Manpower Cost System (AMCOS) Economic and Budget Cost Models.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-06-30

    STANDARDS - 963 - A ZRDMServices0opaiy in (o FINAL REPORT Tm ARMY MANPOWER COST SYSTEM4 (ANCOS) ECONOMIC AND BUDGET I COST MODELS CONTRACT NO. N00014...34-- . . .+r7’’ .•. .’. FINAL REPORT ARMY MANPOWER COST SYSTEM (AMCOS) ECONOMIC AND BUDGET COST MODELS CONTRACT NO. N00014-84-C-0712 - JUNE 30, 1985...lack, the Army Research Institute is supporting the development of a family of models in the Army Manpower Cost System -AMCOS). .. ": The work reported

  3. Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem

    SciTech Connect

    Paez, Paul J.; Paez, Thomas L.; Hasselman, Timothy K.

    2016-02-19

    It is now commonplace for engineers to build mathematical models of the systems they are designing, building, or testing. And, it is nearly universally accepted that phenomenological models of physical systems must be validated prior to use for prediction in consequential scenarios. Yet, there are certain situations in which testing only or no testing and no modeling may be economically viable alternatives to modeling and its associated testing. This paper develops an economic framework within which benefit–cost can be evaluated for modeling and model validation relative to other options. The development is presented in terms of a challenge problem. As a result, we provide a numerical example that quantifies when modeling, calibration, and validation yield higher benefit–cost than a testing only or no modeling and no testing option.

  4. Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem

    DOE PAGES

    Paez, Paul J.; Paez, Thomas L.; Hasselman, Timothy K.

    2016-02-19

    It is now commonplace for engineers to build mathematical models of the systems they are designing, building, or testing. And, it is nearly universally accepted that phenomenological models of physical systems must be validated prior to use for prediction in consequential scenarios. Yet, there are certain situations in which testing only or no testing and no modeling may be economically viable alternatives to modeling and its associated testing. This paper develops an economic framework within which benefit–cost can be evaluated for modeling and model validation relative to other options. The development is presented in terms of a challenge problem. Asmore » a result, we provide a numerical example that quantifies when modeling, calibration, and validation yield higher benefit–cost than a testing only or no modeling and no testing option.« less

  5. Selection of Temporal Lags When Modeling Economic and Financial Processes.

    PubMed

    Matilla-Garcia, Mariano; Ojeda, Rina B; Marin, Manuel Ruiz

    2016-10-01

    This paper suggests new nonparametric statistical tools and procedures for modeling linear and nonlinear univariate economic and financial processes. In particular, the tools presented help in selecting relevant lags in the model description of a general linear or nonlinear time series; that is, nonlinear models are not a restriction. The tests seem to be robust to the selection of free parameters. We also show that the test can be used as a diagnostic tool for well-defined models.

  6. An economical canopy model for use in urban climatology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terjung, W. H.; O'Rourke, P. A.

    1980-12-01

    A multi-layered canopy leaf energy budget model (CANOPY) has been developed for the purpose of systematically examining the building-vegetation cause and effect structure in urban landscapes. At great computer savings, this simple, parametric model compared favorably with a much more complex canopy model (SPAM). The economic operation of this model makes it possible to investigate the spatial diversity of canopy budget characteristics on a microclimatic, geographical scale.

  7. Economic Modeling as a Component of Academic Strategic Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacKinnon, Joyce; Sothmann, Mark; Johnson, James

    2001-01-01

    Computer-based economic modeling was used to enable a school of allied health to define outcomes, identify associated costs, develop cost and revenue models, and create a financial planning system. As a strategic planning tool, it assisted realistic budgeting and improved efficiency and effectiveness. (Contains 18 references.) (SK)

  8. The Open Flip--A Digital Economic Model for Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weller, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The advent of the internet and digital technologies has given rise to a number of new economic models. These have often been applied to education, but either through faults in the initial models or differences in the characteristics of the education sector, they have not proven to be widely applicable. The use of digital, network technologies…

  9. Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

    1994-01-01

    An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

  10. A fuzzy cost-benefit function to select economical products for processing in a closed-loop supply chain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pochampally, Kishore K.; Gupta, Surendra M.; Cullinane, Thomas P.

    2004-02-01

    The cost-benefit analysis of data associated with re-processing of used products often involves the uncertainty feature of cash-flow modeling. The data is not objective because of uncertainties in supply, quality and disassembly times of used products. Hence, decision-makers must rely on "fuzzy" data for analysis. The same parties that are involved in the forward supply chain often carry out the collection and re-processing of used products. It is therefore important that the cost-benefit analysis takes the data of both new products and used products into account. In this paper, a fuzzy cost-benefit function is proposed that is used to perform a multi-criteria economic analysis to select the most economical products to process in a closed-loop supply chain. Application of the function is detailed through an illustrative example.

  11. Citrus production systems to survive greening: economic thresholds.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Advanced Production Systems (APS) and Open Hydroponic Systems (OHS) are proposed strategies for citrus production that could increase early production and sustain production at higher levels through perhaps the first 15 years of grove life. Higher tree densities, automated irrigation, and intensive ...

  12. An economic model of haemophilia in Mexico.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Murillo, C; Quintana, S; Ambriz, R; Benitez, H; Berges, A; Collazo, J; Esparza, A; Pompa, T; Taboada, C; Zavala, S; Larochelle, M R; Bentkover, J D

    2004-01-01

    A model was developed to assess the lifetime costs and outcomes associated with haemophilia in Mexico. A retrospective chart review of 182 type A haemophiliacs was conducted for patients aged 0-34 years receiving one of three treatments: (i) cryoprecipitate at clinic; (ii) concentrate at home; or (iii) concentrate at clinic. Patients treated at home experienced 30% less joint damage, used 13-54% less factor VIII, had four times fewer clinic visits, and utilized half as many hospital days than those treated at a clinic. For cryoprecipitate at clinic patients, the annual incidence rates of HCV and HIV were calculated to be 3.6% and 1.4% respectively. The life expectancy for patients receiving cryoprecipitate and those receiving concentrate was estimated to be 49 years and 69 years respectively, with 58% of cryoprecipitate patients predicted to die of AIDS before age 69. Across the lifespan, the average annual cost of care was US$11,677 (MN$110,464) for cryoprecipitate at clinic patients, US$10,104 (M$95,580) for concentrate at home patients and US$18,819 (MN$178,027) for concentrate at clinic patients. Using a 5% discount rate, the incremental lifetime cost per year of life added for treatment with concentrate at home compared with cryoprecipitate at a clinic was US$738 (MN$6981). Rank order stability analysis demonstrated that the model was most sensitive to the cost of fVIII. These results indicate that treatment with concentrate at home compared with cryoprecipitate at a clinic substantially improves clinical outcomes at reduced annual cost levels.

  13. User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

    SciTech Connect

    Keyser, David; Flores-Espino, Francisco; Uriarte, Caroline; Cox, Sadie

    2016-09-01

    The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.

  14. Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, L. D.

    1978-01-01

    Presents a literature review of the economic aspects of water pollution control covering publications of 1976-77. This review also includes the policy issues of water management. A list of 77 references is presented. (HM)

  15. The global impact of non-communicable diseases on macro-economic productivity: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Chaker, Layal; Falla, Abby; van der Lee, Sven J; Muka, Taulant; Imo, David; Jaspers, Loes; Colpani, Veronica; Mendis, Shanthi; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Bramer, Wichor M; Pazoki, Raha; Franco, Oscar H

    2015-05-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have large economic impact at multiple levels. To systematically review the literature investigating the economic impact of NCDs [including coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), cancer (lung, colon, cervical and breast), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD)] on macro-economic productivity. Systematic search, up to November 6th 2014, of medical databases (Medline, Embase and Google Scholar) without language restrictions. To identify additional publications, we searched the reference lists of retrieved studies and contacted authors in the field. Randomized controlled trials, cohort, case-control, cross-sectional, ecological studies and modelling studies carried out in adults (>18 years old) were included. Two independent reviewers performed all abstract and full text selection. Disagreements were resolved through consensus or consulting a third reviewer. Two independent reviewers extracted data using a predesigned data collection form. Main outcome measure was the impact of the selected NCDs on productivity, measured in DALYs, productivity costs, and labor market participation, including unemployment, return to work and sick leave. From 4542 references, 126 studies met the inclusion criteria, many of which focused on the impact of more than one NCD on productivity. Breast cancer was the most common (n = 45), followed by stroke (n = 31), COPD (n = 24), colon cancer (n = 24), DM (n = 22), lung cancer (n = 16), CVD (n = 15), cervical cancer (n = 7) and CKD (n = 2). Four studies were from the WHO African Region, 52 from the European Region, 53 from the Region of the Americas and 16 from the Western Pacific Region, one from the Eastern Mediterranean Region and none from South East Asia. We found large regional differences in DALYs attributable to NCDs but especially for cervical and lung cancer. Productivity losses in the USA ranged from 88 million

  16. Land Resources for Crop Production. Agricultural Economic Report Number 572.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hexem, Roger; Krupa, Kenneth S.

    About 35 million acres not being cultivated have high potential for crop use and 117 million more have medium potential, according to the 1982 National Resources Inventory (NRI) conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. USDA committees evaluated the economic potential for converting land based on physical characteristics of the soil; size…

  17. Using Economic Impact Models as an Educational Tool in Community Economic Development Programming: Lessons from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shields, Martin; Deller, Steven C.

    2003-01-01

    Outlines an educational process designed to help provide communities with economic, social, and political information using community economic impact modeling. Describes the process of community meetings using economic impact, community demographics, and fiscal impact modules and the local preconditions that help make the process successful. (SK)

  18. Energy efficiency, low-carbon energy production, and economic growth in CIS countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vazim, A.; Kochetkova, O.; Azimzhamov, I.; Shvagrukova, E.; Dmitrieva, N.

    2016-09-01

    The paper studies the peculiarities of energy efficiency increase in national economy and decrease of carbon dioxide emission for CIS countries. The conditions that allow achieving parameters of sustainable development are determined according to indexes of GDP energy intensity and carbon intensity. Focusing on the indexes of GDP energy intensity and carbon intensity dynamics as well as on carbon intensity of energy production, a real movement towards implementation of program conditions presented by international organizations is analyzed, namely, economic conversion to the model of sustainable development. The examples demonstrate both the presence of significant differences between 12 countries and the lack of fatality in these differences. At determining dependencies linear models are preferred to non-linear ones, with the explanation of reasons in each particular case. Attention to success of these countries may help to understand the advantages of conversion to the model of sustainable development and also it helps to decrease demands in terms of costs for this conversion.

  19. Economic analysis of Royalactin production under uncertainty: Evaluating the effect of parameter optimization.

    PubMed

    Torres-Acosta, Mario A; Aguilar-Yañez, Jose M; Rito-Palomares, Marco; Titchener-Hooker, Nigel J

    2015-01-01

    Royalactin is a protein with several different potential uses in humans. Research, in insects and in mammalian cells, has shown that it can accelerate cell division and prevent apoptosis. The method of action is through the use of the epidermal growth factor receptor, which is present in humans. Potential use in humans could be to lower cholesterolemic levels in blood, and to elicit similar effects to those seen in bees, e.g., increased lifespan. Mass production of Royalactin has not been accomplished, though a recent article presented a Pichia pastoris fermentation and recovery by aqueous two-phase systems at laboratory scale as a possible basis for production. Economic modelling is a useful tool with which compare possible outcomes for the production of such a molecule and in particular, to locate areas where additional research is needed and optimization may be required. This study uses the BioSolve software to perform an economic analysis on the scale-up of the putative process for Royalactin. The key parameters affecting the cost of production were located via a sensitivity analysis and then evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis. Results show that if titer is not optimized the strategy to maintain a low cost of goods is process oriented. After optimization of this parameter the strategy changes to a product-oriented and the target output becomes the critical parameter determining the cost of goods. This study serves to provide a framework for the evaluation of strategies for future production of Royalactin, by analyzing the factors that influence its cost of manufacture.

  20. Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  1. Process economics of renewable biorefineries: butanol and ethanol production in integrated bioprocesses from lignocellulosics and other industrial by-products

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This chapter provides process economic details on production of butanol from lignocellulosic biomass and glycerol in integrated bioreactors where numerous unit operations are combined. In order to compare various processes, economic evaluations were performed using SuperPro Designer Software (versio...

  2. Hierarchical economic potential approach for techno-economic evaluation of bioethanol production from palm empty fruit bunches.

    PubMed

    Do, Truong Xuan; Lim, Young-Il; Jang, Sungsoo; Chung, Hwa-Jee

    2015-01-01

    A hierarchical four-level approach to determine economic potential (4-level EP) is proposed for preliminary techno-economic analysis of new processes. The 4-level EP includes input/output structure, process flow structure, heat integration (HI), and economic feasibility. Two case studies on a 30.2 t/d (or 12.7 million l/yr) bioethanol plant with and without jet fuel production from palm empty fruit bunches (EFB) were investigated by applying the 4-level EP. The plant flowsheet was established based on experiments in a 0.1t/d pilot plant, including sequential dilute acid and alkali pretreatment, and separate hydrolysis and fermentation (SHF). EP approached a more reliable value through the hierarchical 4-level EP. The heating energy was reduced considerably by HI. The product value was estimated at $0.8-$1.3/kg of equivalent bioethanol. It was suggested through sensitivity analysis that a large plant size, enhanced production yields, and capital cost reduction were necessary for the lignocellulosic bioethanol production to be profitable.

  3. Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social-economic-environmental system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, Evan G. R.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2011-06-01

    Awareness of increasing water scarcity has driven efforts to model global water resources for improved insight into water resources infrastructure and management strategies. Most water resources models focus explicitly on water systems and represent socio-economic and environmental change as external drivers. In contrast, the system dynamics-based integrated assessment model employed here, ANEMI, incorporates dynamic representations of these systems, so that their broader changes affect and are affected by water resources systems through feedbacks. Sectors in ANEMI therefore include the global climate system, carbon cycle, economy, population, land use and agriculture, and novel versions of the hydrological cycle, global water use and water quality. Since the model focus is on their interconnections through explicit nonlinear feedbacks, simulations with ANEMI provide insight into the nature and structure of connections between water resources and socio-economic and environmental change. Of particular interest to water resources researchers and modelers will be the simulated effects of a new water stress definition that incorporates both water quality and water quantity effects into the measurement of water scarcity. Five simulation runs demonstrate the value of wastewater treatment and reuse programs and the feedback-effects of irrigated agriculture and greater consumption of animal products.

  4. A generic bio-economic farm model for environmental and economic assessment of agricultural systems.

    PubMed

    Janssen, Sander; Louhichi, Kamel; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Zander, Peter; Flichman, Guillermo; Hengsdijk, Huib; Meuter, Eelco; Andersen, Erling; Belhouchette, Hatem; Blanco, Maria; Borkowski, Nina; Heckelei, Thomas; Hecker, Martin; Li, Hongtao; Oude Lansink, Alfons; Stokstad, Grete; Thorne, Peter; van Keulen, Herman; van Ittersum, Martin K

    2010-12-01

    Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models.

  5. A Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model for Environmental and Economic Assessment of Agricultural Systems

    PubMed Central

    Louhichi, Kamel; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Zander, Peter; Flichman, Guillermo; Hengsdijk, Huib; Meuter, Eelco; Andersen, Erling; Belhouchette, Hatem; Blanco, Maria; Borkowski, Nina; Heckelei, Thomas; Hecker, Martin; Li, Hongtao; Oude Lansink, Alfons; Stokstad, Grete; Thorne, Peter; van Keulen, Herman; van Ittersum, Martin K.

    2010-01-01

    Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models. PMID:21113782

  6. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2007-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  7. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  8. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  9. Using STELLA Simulation Models to Teach Natural Resource Economics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dissanayake, Sahan T. M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how graphical simulation models created using STELLA software can be used to present natural resource systems in an intuitive way in undergraduate natural resource economics classes based on his experiences at a leading research university, a state university, and a leading liberal arts college in the United…

  10. Childhood Adultification in Economically Disadvantaged Families: A Conceptual Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burton, Linda

    2007-01-01

    This article presents an emergent conceptual model of childhood adultification and economic disadvantage derived from 5 longitudinal ethnographies of children and adolescents growing up in low-income families. Childhood adultification involves contextual, social, and developmental processes in which youth are prematurely, and often…

  11. An Economic Model of Workplace Mobbing in Academe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faria, Joao Ricardo; Mixon, Franklin G., Jr.; Salter, Sean P.

    2012-01-01

    Workplace bullying or mobbing can be defined as the infliction of various forms of abuse (e.g., verbal, emotional, psychological) against a colleague or subordinate by one or more other members of a workplace. Even in the presence of academic tenure, workplace mobbing remains a prevalent issue in academe. This study develops an economic model that…

  12. A process economic assessment of hydrocarbon biofuels production using chemoautotrophic organisms

    SciTech Connect

    Khan, NE; Myers, JA; Tuerk, AL; Curtis, WR

    2014-11-01

    Economic analysis of an ARPA-e Electrofuels (http://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=arpa-e-programs/electrofuels) process is presented, utilizing metabolically engineered Rhodobacter capsulatus or Ralstonia eutropha to produce the C30+ hydrocarbon fuel, botryococcene, from hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and oxygen. The analysis is based on an Aspen plus (R) bioreactor model taking into account experimentally determined Rba. capsulatus and Rls. eutropha growth and maintenance requirements, reactor residence time, correlations for gas-liquid mass-transfer coefficient, gas composition, and specific cellular fuel productivity. Based on reactor simulation results encompassing technically relevant parameter ranges, the capital and operating costs of the process were estimated for 5000 bbl-fuel/day plant and used to predict fuel cost. Under the assumptions used in this analysis and crude oil prices, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) required for economic feasibility must be less than 2(sic)/kWh. While not feasible under current market prices and costs, this work identifies key variables impacting process cost and discusses potential alternative paths toward economic feasibility. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. A conceptual framework for economic optimization of single hazard surveillance in livestock production chains.

    PubMed

    Guo, Xuezhen; Claassen, G D H; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Saatkamp, H W

    2014-06-01

    Economic analysis of hazard surveillance in livestock production chains is essential for surveillance organizations (such as food safety authorities) when making scientifically based decisions on optimization of resource allocation. To enable this, quantitative decision support tools are required at two levels of analysis: (1) single-hazard surveillance system and (2) surveillance portfolio. This paper addresses the first level by presenting a conceptual approach for the economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems. The concept includes objective and subjective aspects of single-hazard surveillance system analysis: (1) a simulation part to derive an efficient set of surveillance setups based on the technical surveillance performance parameters (TSPPs) and the corresponding surveillance costs, i.e., objective analysis, and (2) a multi-criteria decision making model to evaluate the impacts of the hazard surveillance, i.e., subjective analysis. The conceptual approach was checked for (1) conceptual validity and (2) data validity. Issues regarding the practical use of the approach, particularly the data requirement, were discussed. We concluded that the conceptual approach is scientifically credible for economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems and that the practicability of the approach depends on data availability.

  14. A process economic assessment of hydrocarbon biofuels production using chemoautotrophic organisms.

    PubMed

    Khan, Nymul E; Myers, John A; Tuerk, Amalie L; Curtis, Wayne R

    2014-11-01

    Economic analysis of an ARPA-e Electrofuels (http://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=arpa-e-programs/electrofuels) process is presented, utilizing metabolically engineered Rhodobacter capsulatus or Ralstonia eutropha to produce the C30+ hydrocarbon fuel, botryococcene, from hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and oxygen. The analysis is based on an Aspen plus® bioreactor model taking into account experimentally determined Rba. capsulatus and Rls. eutropha growth and maintenance requirements, reactor residence time, correlations for gas-liquid mass-transfer coefficient, gas composition, and specific cellular fuel productivity. Based on reactor simulation results encompassing technically relevant parameter ranges, the capital and operating costs of the process were estimated for 5000 bbl-fuel/day plant and used to predict fuel cost. Under the assumptions used in this analysis and crude oil prices, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) required for economic feasibility must be less than 2¢/kWh. While not feasible under current market prices and costs, this work identifies key variables impacting process cost and discusses potential alternative paths toward economic feasibility.

  15. Environmental-Economic Assessment Of Generation, Flow And Efficiency Of Use Of Production And Consumption Waste

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikhailov, V. G.; Golofastova, N. N.; Galanina, T. V.; Koroleva, T. G.; Mikhailova, Ya S.

    2017-01-01

    The article deals with the issues of environmental and economic analysis of industrial and economic activities of an enterprise to assess the generation, flow and efficiency of production and consumption waste. The purpose of research is the analysis and the development of theoretical propositions for the functioning of the system of environmental and economic indicators for the effective management of production and consumption waste in the enterprise. The analysis of the existing systems of environmental and economic indicators taking into consideration the industry characteristics and the types of negative impacts is carried out. The main result of the study is the development of the system of environmental and economic indicators of production and consumption waste, adapted to the modern requirements. The results of the study can be recommended to support the effective management decision-making concerning waste management and the establishment of appropriate infrastructure.

  16. Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kemp, Rodger

    This course presents basic economic concepts and explores issues such as how goods and services are produced and distributed, what affects costs and profits, and how wealth is spread around or concentrated. The course is designed to be used with students enrolled in an adult high school diploma program; course content is appropriate to meet social…

  17. Crop diversity effects on productivity and economic returns under dryland agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Increasing crop diversity has been identified as a method to improve agronomic performance of cropping systems and increase provision of ecosystem services. However, there is a need to understand the economic performance of more diverse cropping systems. Crop productivity and economic net returns we...

  18. Food Production and Services. Performance Objectives. Criterion Measures. Home Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bryant, EuDell H.; And Others

    Several intermediate performance objectives and corresponding criterion measures are listed for each of eight terminal objectives for a food production and services course, which is designed to provide students with an opportunity to express and practice a broad range of food production and service occupations. Major concepts covered include…

  19. The economics of biomass production in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, R.L.; Walsh, M.E.; Lichtenberg, E.; Roningen, V.O.; Shapouri, H.

    1995-12-31

    Biomass crops (e.g. poplar, willow, switchgrass) could become important feedstocks for power, liquid fuel, and chemical production. This paper presents estimates of the potential production of biomass in the US under a range of assumptions. Estimates of potential biomass crop yields and production costs from the Department of Energy`s (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratories (ORNL) are combined with measures of land rents from USDA`s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), to estimate a competitive supply of biomass wood and grass crops. Estimates are made for one potential biomass use--electric power production--where future costs of electricity production from competing fossil fuels set the demand price. The paper outlines the methodology used and limitations of the analysis.

  20. Uncertainty and validation of health economic decision models.

    PubMed

    Kim, Lois G; Thompson, Simon G

    2010-01-01

    Health economic decision models are based on specific assumptions relating to model structure and parameter estimation. Validation of these models is recommended as an indicator of reliability, but is not commonly reported. Furthermore, models derived from different data and employing different assumptions may produce a variety of results.A Markov model for evaluating the long-term cost-effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm is described. Internal, prospective and external validations are carried out using individual participant data from two randomised trials. Validation is assessed in terms of total numbers and timings of key events, and total costs and life-years. Since the initial model validates well only internally, two further models are developed that better fit the prospective and external validation data. All three models are then extrapolated to a life-time horizon, producing cost-effectiveness estimates ranging from pound1600 to pound4200 per life-year gained.Parameter uncertainty is now commonly addressed in health economic decision modelling. However, the derivation of models from different data sources adds another level of uncertainty. This extra uncertainty should be recognised in practical decision-making and, where possible, specifically investigated through independent model validation.

  1. Economic assessment of different mulches in conventional and water-saving rice production systems.

    PubMed

    Jabran, Khawar; Hussain, Mubshar; Fahad, Shah; Farooq, Muhammad; Bajwa, Ali Ahsan; Alharrby, Hesham; Nasim, Wajid

    2016-05-01

    Water-saving rice production systems including alternate wetting and drying (AWD) and aerobic rice (AR) are being increasingly adopted by growers due to global water crises. Application of natural and artificial mulches may further improve water economy of water-saving rice production systems. Conventionally flooded rice (CFR) system has been rarely compared with AWD and AR in terms of economic returns. In this 2-year field study, we compared CFR with AWD and AR (with and without straw and plastic mulches) for the cost of production and economic benefits. Results indicated that CFR had a higher production cost than AWD and AR. However, application of mulches increased the cost of production of AWD and AR production systems where plastic mulch was expensive than straw mulch. Although the mulching increased the cost of production for AWD and AR, the gross income of these systems was also improved significantly. The gross income from mulched plots of AWD and AR was higher than non-mulched plots of the same systems. In conclusion, AWD and AR effectively reduce cost of production by economizing the water use. However, the use of natural and artificial mulches in such water-saving environments further increased the economic returns. The maximized economic returns by using straw mulch in water-saving rice production systems definitely have pragmatic implications for sustainable agriculture.

  2. The economic efficiency of conservation measures for amphibians in organic farming--results from bio-economic modelling.

    PubMed

    Schuler, Johannes; Sattler, Claudia; Helmecke, Angela; Zander, Peter; Uthes, Sandra; Bachinger, Johann; Stein-Bachinger, Karin

    2013-01-15

    This paper presents a whole farm bio-economic modelling approach for the assessment and optimisation of amphibian conservation conditions applied at the example of a large scale organic farm in North-Eastern Germany. The assessment focuses mainly on the habitat quality as affected by conservation measures such as through specific adapted crop production activities (CPA) and in-field buffer strips for the European tree frog (Hyla arborea), considering also interrelations with other amphibian species (i.e. common spadefoot toad (Pelobates fuscus), fire-bellied toad (Bombina bombina)). The aim of the approach is to understand, analyse and optimize the relationships between the ecological and economic performance of an organic farming system, based on the expectation that amphibians are differently impacted by different CPAs. The modelling system consists of a set of different sub-models that generate a farm model on the basis of environmentally evaluated CPAs. A crop-rotation sub-model provides a set of agronomically sustainable crop rotations that ensures overall sufficient nitrogen supply and controls weed, pest and disease infestations. An economic sub-model calculates the gross margins for each possible CPA including costs of inputs such as labour and machinery. The conservation effects of the CPAs are assessed with an ecological sub-model evaluates the potential negative or positive effect that each work step of a CPA has on amphibians. A mathematical programming sub-model calculates the optimal farm organization taking into account the limited factors of the farm (e.g. labour, land) as well as ecological improvements. In sequential model runs, the habitat quality is to be improved by the model, while the highest possible gross margin is still to be achieved. The results indicate that the model can be used to show the scope of action that a farmer has to improve habitat quality by reducing damage to amphibian population on its land during agricultural activities

  3. Project Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice. A Third-grade Economics Project [and] A Bird's Eye View of an Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice Production in Arkansas.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Penny

    An economics project for third grade children is described and lessons for teaching basic economic concepts are provided. In the first semester, students studied basic economic concepts; in the second semester, they learned about the origin, production, and distribution of rice and poultry and how these products affect the local and state…

  4. Impact of pretreatment and downstream processing technologies on economics and energy in cellulosic ethanol production

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background While advantages of biofuel have been widely reported, studies also highlight the challenges in large scale production of biofuel. Cost of ethanol and process energy use in cellulosic ethanol plants are dependent on technologies used for conversion of feedstock. Process modeling can aid in identifying techno-economic bottlenecks in a production process. A comprehensive techno-economic analysis was performed for conversion of cellulosic feedstock to ethanol using some of the common pretreatment technologies: dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion. Detailed process models incorporating feedstock handling, pretreatment, simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation, ethanol recovery and downstream processing were developed using SuperPro Designer. Tall Fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb) was used as a model feedstock. Results Projected ethanol yields were 252.62, 255.80, 255.27 and 230.23 L/dry metric ton biomass for conversion process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment technologies respectively. Price of feedstock and cellulose enzymes were assumed as $50/metric ton and 0.517/kg broth (10% protein in broth, 600 FPU/g protein) respectively. Capital cost of ethanol plants processing 250,000 metric tons of feedstock/year was $1.92, $1.73, $1.72 and $1.70/L ethanol for process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment respectively. Ethanol production cost of $0.83, $0.88, $0.81 and $0.85/L ethanol was estimated for production process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment respectively. Water use in the production process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment was estimated 5.96, 6.07, 5.84 and 4.36 kg/L ethanol respectively. Conclusions Ethanol price and energy use were highly dependent on process conditions used in the ethanol production plant. Potential for significant ethanol cost

  5. Stochastic effects in a discretized kinetic model of economic exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertotti, M. L.; Chattopadhyay, A. K.; Modanese, G.

    2017-04-01

    Linear stochastic models and discretized kinetic theory are two complementary analytical techniques used for the investigation of complex systems of economic interactions. The former employ Langevin equations, with an emphasis on stock trade; the latter is based on systems of ordinary differential equations and is better suited for the description of binary interactions, taxation and welfare redistribution. We propose a new framework which establishes a connection between the two approaches by introducing random fluctuations into the kinetic model based on Langevin and Fokker-Planck formalisms. Numerical simulations of the resulting model indicate positive correlations between the Gini index and the total wealth, that suggest a growing inequality with increasing income. Further analysis shows, in the presence of a conserved total wealth, a simultaneous decrease in inequality as social mobility increases, in conformity with economic data.

  6. Cotton production and water quality: Economic and environmental effects of pollution prevention. Agricultural economic report

    SciTech Connect

    Crutchfield, S.R.; Ribaudo, M.O.; Hansen, L.T.; Quiroga, R.

    1992-12-01

    Cotton production, compared with other crops, is less likely to cause erosion-induced water-quality problems because cotton acreage is not the major source of erosion in most regions. For cotton production, the most widespread potential damages to water quality are nitrates from fertilizer polluting ground water and pesticides contaminating surface water. This damage could be reduced by restricting chemical and fertilizer use on all cotton production, but doing so could reduce cotton yields and raise cotton prices. The same level of water-quality improvement could be achieved at less cost by targeting the chemical use or erosion restrictions only to cotton farms with the most vulnerable soils. Data come from a 1989 USDA survey of cotton producers.

  7. A neuro-computational model of economic decisions.

    PubMed

    Rustichini, Aldo; Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

    2015-09-01

    Neuronal recordings and lesion studies indicate that key aspects of economic decisions take place in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). Previous work identified in this area three groups of neurons encoding the offer value, the chosen value, and the identity of the chosen good. An important and open question is whether and how decisions could emerge from a neural circuit formed by these three populations. Here we adapted a biophysically realistic neural network previously proposed for perceptual decisions (Wang XJ. Neuron 36: 955-968, 2002; Wong KF, Wang XJ. J Neurosci 26: 1314-1328, 2006). The domain of economic decisions is significantly broader than that for which the model was originally designed, yet the model performed remarkably well. The input and output nodes of the network were naturally mapped onto two groups of cells in OFC. Surprisingly, the activity of interneurons in the network closely resembled that of the third group of cells, namely, chosen value cells. The model reproduced several phenomena related to the neuronal origins of choice variability. It also generated testable predictions on the excitatory/inhibitory nature of different neuronal populations and on their connectivity. Some aspects of the empirical data were not reproduced, but simple extensions of the model could overcome these limitations. These results render a biologically credible model for the neuronal mechanisms of economic decisions. They demonstrate that choices could emerge from the activity of cells in the OFC, suggesting that chosen value cells directly participate in the decision process. Importantly, Wang's model provides a platform to investigate the implications of neuroscience results for economic theory.

  8. Rethinking the causes of deforestation: lessons from economic models.

    PubMed

    Angelsen, A; Kaimowitz, D

    1999-02-01

    Concern is rising over the deleterious effects of tropical deforestation. For example, the loss of forest cover influences the climate and reduces biodiversity, while reduced timber supplies, siltation, flooding, and soil degradation affect economic activity and threaten the livelihoods and cultural integrity of forest-dependent people. Such concerns have led economists to expand their efforts to model why, where, and to what extent forests are being converted to other land uses. This synthesis of the results of more than 140 economic models analyzing the causes of tropical deforestation brings into question many conventional hypotheses upon deforestation. More roads, higher agricultural prices, lower wages, and a shortage of off-farm employment generally lead to more deforestation. However, it is not known how technical change, agricultural input prices, household income levels, and tenure security affect deforestation. The role of macroeconomic factors such as population growth, poverty reduction, national income, economic growth, and foreign debt is also unclear. The authors nonetheless determine through their review that policy reforms included in current economic liberalization and adjustment efforts may increase pressure upon forests.

  9. Economic damages of ozone air pollution to crops using combined air quality and GIS modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vlachokostas, Ch.; Nastis, S. A.; Achillas, Ch.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Karmiris, I.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Chourdakis, E.; Banias, G.; Limperi, N.

    2010-09-01

    This study aims at presenting a combined air quality and GIS modelling methodological approach in order to estimate crop damages from photochemical air pollution, depict their spatial resolution and assess the order of magnitude regarding the corresponding economic damages. The analysis is conducted within the Greater Thessaloniki Area, Greece, a Mediterranean territory which is characterised by high levels of photochemical air pollution and considerable agricultural activity. Ozone concentration fields for 2002 and for specific emission reduction scenarios for the year 2010 were estimated with the Ozone Fine Structure model in the area under consideration. Total economic damage to crops turns out to be significant and estimated to be approximately 43 M€ for the reference year. Production of cotton presents the highest economic loss, which is over 16 M€, followed by table tomato (9 M€), rice (4.2 M€), wheat (4 M€) and oilseed rape (2.8 M€) cultivations. Losses are not spread uniformly among farmers and the major losses occur in areas with valuable ozone-sensitive crops. The results are very useful for highlighting the magnitude of the total economic impacts of photochemical air pollution to the area's agricultural sector and can potentially be used for comparison with studies worldwide. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the economic damage could be of importance for governmental authorities and decision makers since it provides an indicative insight, especially if the economic instruments such as financial incentives or state subsidies to farmers are considered.

  10. Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

    2013-04-01

    The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

  11. Multi objectives model to optimise the economical value of agriculture water use in Gaza Strip

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouda, O.; Bardossy, A.

    2003-04-01

    Multi objectives model to optimise the economical value of agriculture water use in Gaza Strip. O. Ouda (1), A. Bárdossy (1) (1) Institut fuer Wasserbau, Universitaet Stuttgart Fax: +49-(0)711-685-4746/ e-mail: omar.ouda@iws.uni-stuttgart.de Key words: Multi objectives model, agriculture water use, and Gaza Strip. ============================================================================ Abstract The Gaza Strip faces a serious water shortage problem, with a present water shortage of about 61 Mm3/year. The problem is projected to become even larger in the future due to a high population growth of about 3.2%. The water deficit is presently covered by abstraction of the groundwater beyond the sustainable yield, where groundwater is the only natural source in Gaza strip. Irrigated agriculture consumed about 60% (90 Mm3/year) of water in Gaza strip. The economical value of water used for agriculture propose is very low in comparison with water opportunity cost of 1 US/m3 , ( seawater desalination cost). A Multi objective optimisation model (MOM) based on mathematical programming techniques aimed to optimise the economical return value of agriculture water use has been formulated, where 20 crops distributed over 16 zones have been considered. The available agriculture area, Available treated wastewater, Local agriculture products demand were considered as constrains. Irrigation water demand for each crop for three meteorological conditions dry, wet and average year, and Average product prices were considered as variables. A modification of the MOM models has been made toward equitable profit distribution (US/hectare) among the different 16 zones, where additional constrain of minimum profit per hectare in each zone has been implemented. Finally a sensitivity analysis for the effect of water price, crop price and crop products demand on the model output has been made. The MOM presents a good analytical basis for policy makers toward optimising the economical return of

  12. Economical Production of Pu-238: NIAC Phase I Final Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howe, Steven D.; Crawford, Douglas; Navarro, Jorge; O'Brien, Robert C.; Katalenich, Jeff; Ring, Terry

    2016-01-01

    All space exploration missions traveling beyond Jupiter must use radioisotopic power sources for electrical power. The best isotope to power these sources is plutonium-238 (Pu-238). The US supply of Pu-238 is almost exhausted and will be gone within the next decade. The Department of Energy has initiated a production program with a $10M allocation from NASA but the cost is estimated at over $100M to get to production levels. The Center for Space Nuclear Research (CSNR) has conceived of a potentially better process to produce Pu-238 earlier and for significantly less cost. Potentially, the front end capital costs could be provided by private industry such that the government only had to pay for the product produced. In the Phase I NIAC (NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts) grant, the CSNR has evaluated the feasibility of using a low power, commercially available nuclear reactor to produce 1.5 kg of Pu-238 per year. The impact on the neutronics of the reactor have been assessed, the amount of Neptunium target material estimated, and the production rates calculated. In addition, the size of the post-irradiation processing facility has been established. Finally, as the study progressed, a new method for fabricating the Pu-238 product into the form used for power sources has been identified to reduce the cost of the final product. In short, the concept appears to be viable, can produce the amount of Pu-238 needed to support the NASA missions, can be available within a few years, and will cost significantly less than the current DOE program.

  13. Economic inequality and mobility in kinetic models for social sciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Letizia Bertotti, Maria; Modanese, Giovanni

    2016-10-01

    Statistical evaluations of the economic mobility of a society are more difficult than measurements of the income distribution, because they require to follow the evolution of the individuals' income for at least one or two generations. In micro-to-macro theoretical models of economic exchanges based on kinetic equations, the income distribution depends only on the asymptotic equilibrium solutions, while mobility estimates also involve the detailed structure of the transition probabilities of the model, and are thus an important tool for assessing its validity. Empirical data show a remarkably general negative correlation between economic inequality and mobility, whose explanation is still unclear. It is therefore particularly interesting to study this correlation in analytical models. In previous work we investigated the behavior of the Gini inequality index in kinetic models in dependence on several parameters which define the binary interactions and the taxation and redistribution processes: saving propensity, taxation rates gap, tax evasion rate, welfare means-testing etc. Here, we check the correlation of mobility with inequality by analyzing the mobility dependence from the same parameters. According to several numerical solutions, the correlation is confirmed to be negative.

  14. The economical production of alcohol fuels from coal-derived synthesis gas: Case studies, design, and economics

    SciTech Connect

    1995-10-01

    This project is a combination of process simulation and catalyst development aimed at identifying the most economical method for converting coal to syngas to linear higher alcohols to be used as oxygenated fuel additives. There are two tasks. The goal of Task 1 is to discover, study, and evaluate novel heterogeneous catalytic systems for the production of oxygenated fuel enhancers from synthesis gas, and to explore, analytically and on the bench scale, novel reactor and process concepts for use in converting syngas to liquid fuel products. The goal of Task 2 is to simulate, by computer, energy efficient and economically efficient processes for converting coal to energy (fuel alcohols and/or power). The primary focus is to convert syngas to fuel alcohols. This report contains results from Task 2. The first step for Task 2 was to develop computer simulations of alternative coal to syngas to linear higher alcohol processes, to evaluate and compare the economics and energy efficiency of these alternative processes, and to make a preliminary determination as to the most attractive process configuration. A benefit of this approach is that simulations will be debugged and available for use when Task 1 results are available. Seven cases were developed using different gasifier technologies, different methods for altering the H{sub 2}/CO ratio of the syngas to the desired 1.1/1, and with the higher alcohol fuel additives as primary products and as by-products of a power generation facility. Texaco, Shell, and Lurgi gasifier designs were used to test gasifying coal. Steam reforming of natural gas, sour gas shift conversion, or pressure swing adsorption were used to alter the H{sub 2}/CO ratio of the syngas. In addition, a case using only natural gas was prepared to compare coal and natural gas as a source of syngas.

  15. A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

    1983-01-01

    Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

  16. Energy/economic model analysis. Energy economic modeling system. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Nesbitt, D.M.; Oman, D.B.

    1980-06-01

    The Decision Focus Incorporated (DFI) Energy-Economy Model used in this study is an integrating model designed in part to focus on two budget-related decisions. Specifically, the DFI model provides a robust but simple way of computing the benefits of successful RandD both in the aggregate and at the level of individual RandD projects.

  17. Industrial food animal production and global health risks: exploring the ecosystems and economics of avian influenza.

    PubMed

    Leibler, Jessica H; Otte, Joachim; Roland-Holst, David; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Soares Magalhaes, Ricardo; Rushton, Jonathan; Graham, Jay P; Silbergeld, Ellen K

    2009-03-01

    Many emerging infectious diseases in human populations are associated with zoonotic origins. Attention has often focused on wild animal reservoirs, but most zoonotic pathogens of recent concern to human health either originate in, or are transferred to, human populations from domesticated animals raised for human consumption. Thus, the ecological context of emerging infectious disease comprises two overlapping ecosystems: the natural habitats and populations of wild animals, and the anthropogenically controlled habitats and populations of domesticated species. Intensive food animal production systems and their associated value chains dominate in developed countries and are increasingly important in developing countries. These systems are characterized by large numbers of animals being raised in confinement with high throughput and rapid turnover. Although not typically recognized as such, industrial food animal production generates unique ecosystems -- environments that may facilitate the evolution of zoonotic pathogens and their transmission to human populations. It is often assumed that confined food animal production reduces risks of emerging zoonotic diseases. This article provides evidence suggesting that these industrial systems may increase animal and public health risks unless there is recognition of the specific biosecurity and biocontainment challenges of the industrial model. Moreover, the economic drivers and constraints faced by the industry and its participants must be fully understood in order to inform preventative policy. In order to more effectively reduce zoonotic disease risk from industrial food animal production, private incentives for the implementation of biosecurity must align with public health interests.

  18. GEEF: a geothermal engineering and economic feasibility model. Description and user's manual

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1982-09-01

    The model is designed to enable decision makers to compare the economics of geothermal projects with the economics of alternative energy systems at an early stage in the decision process. The geothermal engineering and economic feasibility computer model (GEEF) is written in FORTRAN IV language and can be run on a mainframe or a mini-computer system. An abbreviated version of the model is being developed for usage in conjunction with a programmable desk calculator. The GEEF model has two main segments, namely (i) the engineering design/cost segment and (ii) the economic analysis segment. In the engineering segment, the model determines the numbers of production and injection wells, heat exchanger design, operating parameters for the system, requirement of supplementary system (to augment the working fluid temperature if the resource temperature is not sufficiently high), and the fluid flow rates. The model can handle single stage systems as well as two stage cascaded systems in which the second stage may involve a space heating application after a process heat application in the first stage.

  19. Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

    2014-03-01

    This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

  20. Boom and bust in continuous time evolving economic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, L.; Ackland, G. J.

    2009-08-01

    We show that a simple model of a spatially resolved evolving economic system, which has a steady state under simultaneous updating, shows stable oscillations in price when updated asynchronously. The oscillations arise from a gradual decline of the mean price due to competition among sellers competing for the same resource. This lowers profitability and hence population but is followed by a sharp rise as speculative sellers invade the large un-inhabited areas. This cycle then begins again.

  1. Economic Dispatch for Microgrid Containing Electric Vehicles via Probabilistic Modelling

    SciTech Connect

    Yao, Yin; Gao, Wenzhong; Momoh, James; Muljadi, Eduard

    2015-10-06

    In this paper, an economic dispatch model with probabilistic modeling is developed for microgrid. Electric power supply in microgrid consists of conventional power plants and renewable energy power plants, such as wind and solar power plants. Due to the fluctuation of solar and wind plants' output, an empirical probabilistic model is developed to predict their hourly output. According to different characteristics of wind and solar plants, the parameters for probabilistic distribution are further adjusted individually for both power plants. On the other hand, with the growing trend of Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PHEV), an integrated microgrid system must also consider the impact of PHEVs. Not only the charging loads from PHEVs, but also the discharging output via Vehicle to Grid (V2G) method can greatly affect the economic dispatch for all the micro energy sources in microgrid. This paper presents an optimization method for economic dispatch in microgrid considering conventional, renewable power plants, and PHEVs. The simulation results reveal that PHEVs with V2G capability can be an indispensable supplement in modern microgrid.

  2. Cardiac echo-lab productivity in times of economic austerity.

    PubMed

    Katsi, Vasiliki K; Vrachatis, Dimitrios A; Politi, Anastasia; Papageorgiou, Manto; Koumoulidis, Anastasios; Vlasseros, Ioannis; Vavuranakis, Manolis; Tousoulis, Dimitrios; Stefanadis, Christodoulos; Kallikazaros, Ioannis; Souliotis, Kyriakos

    2014-01-01

    The present study attempts to offer insight into the volume, cost, and productivity of the operation of a cardiac echocardiographic laboratory (echo-lab) in a major public hospital of Greece and thus to contribute, on a practical level, to the widening of knowledge in the strategic field of secondary and tertiary healthcare management. The conducted research includes the basic step of the deployment of a primary data registry in the echo-lab and unfolds in three levels, i.e. the variability measurement of the quantity and cost of medical services provided to different patient populations, the assessment of operating costs and the development of productivity indexes. The results show that the mean costs of provision do change among distinct patient populations. The most important, from a financial standpoint, population cluster appears to be the one corresponding to outpatients. Productivity indices presented in this analysis constitute an essential piece of information which the public healthcare system is currently largely lacking, and which, combined with the pricing and the diagnosis-related group coding system of hospitals, can be used to improve efficiency in the management of secondary and tertiary care.

  3. Production economics analysis of investment initiated to improve working environment.

    PubMed

    Abrahamsson, L

    2000-02-01

    This article describes the results of an evaluation of a new work place for ladle preparation at Swedish Steel in Luleå, Sweden. The company initiated a development project related to ladle service work, in order to come to grips with the difficult working environment and problems associated with absenteeism due to illness and occupational injuries. The evaluation was performed for the first three years after implementation of the project and it shows that the new work place considerably improved working conditions and increased both the quality and efficiency of production. The purpose of this article is also to discuss some methodological problems. The follow-up of the various changes in working environment and personnel statistics was fairly simple to carry out. But in terms of production effects, the company's in-house production follow-up system proved to be too unspecified and oversimplified. It was also difficult to decide which changes should count as effects of the new work place and to value these in monetary terms. The profitability calculation shows that an investment initiated to improve the working environment can yield good profitability.

  4. Future Projections for Southern High Plains Agriculture Using Coupled Economic and Hydrologic Models and Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rainwater, K.; Tewari, R.; Willis, D.; Stovall, J.; Hayhoe, K.; Hernandez, A.; Mauget, S. A.; Leiker, G.; Johnson, J.

    2013-12-01

    The objective of the project was to evaluate the hypothesis that predicted climate change will affect the useful life of the Ogallala aquifer in the Southern High Plains (SHP) through its impact on the amount of irrigation withdrawals, and thus affect the yields and economic costs and net income. A ninety-year time frame has been considered, although the research team recognizes that long-term predictions of crop prices and selections are perhaps even more uncertain than long-term weather projections. Previous work by the research team recently demonstrated the development of regionally downscaled climate projections for the SHP. Quantitative projections of precipitation, potential evaporation, and temperature trends for the 90-yr duration were selected from a downscaled set of high-resolution (one-eighth degree) daily climate and hydrological simulations covering the entire Great Plains region, driven by the latest IPCC AR4 climate model outputs. These projections were used as input to the Ogallala Ag Tool software developed by the USDA-ARS to predict daily and seasonal values of those variables, which directly affect irrigation, at different locations in the study area. Results from the Ogallala Ag Tool were then used to drive future projected crop production functions for cotton, corn, wheat, and sorghum using the DSSAT crop model. These production functions were then included in an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling approach that coupled an economic optimization model with a groundwater hydrological model. The groundwater model was based on the Texas Water Development Board's Southern Ogallala Groundwater Availability Model, which has been recalibrated by the research team for previous applications. The coupling of the two models allowed better recognition of spatial heterogeneity across the SHP, such that irrigation water availability was better represented through the spatial variations in pumping demands and saturated thickness. With this hydrologic

  5. An Economic Model of U.S. Airline Operating Expenses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Franklin D.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a new economic model of operating expenses for 67 airlines. The model is based on data that the airlines reported to the United States Department of Transportation in 1999. The model incorporates expense-estimating equations that capture direct and indirect expenses of both passenger and cargo airlines. The variables and business factors included in the equations are detailed enough to calculate expenses at the flight equipment reporting level. Total operating expenses for a given airline are then obtained by summation over all aircraft operated by the airline. The model's accuracy is demonstrated by correlation with the DOT Form 41 data from which it was derived. Passenger airlines are more accurately modeled than cargo airlines. An appendix presents a concise summary of the expense estimating equations with explanatory notes. The equations include many operational and aircraft variables, which accommodate any changes that airline and aircraft manufacturers might make to lower expenses in the future. In 1999, total operating expenses of the 67 airlines included in this study amounted to slightly over $100.5 billion. The economic model reported herein estimates $109.3 billion.

  6. Golbal Economic and Environmental Impacts of Increased Bioenergy Production

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace Tyner

    2012-05-30

    The project had three main objectives: to build and incorporate an explicit biomass energy sector within the GTAP analytical framework and data base; to provide an analysis of the impact of renewable fuel standards and other policies in the U.S. and E.U, as well as alternative biofuel policies in other parts of the world, on changes in production, prices, consumption, trade and poverty; and to evaluate environmental impacts of alternative policies for bioenergy development. Progress and outputs related to each objective are reported.

  7. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  8. Techno-Economic Basis for Coproduct Manufacturing To Enable Hydrocarbon Fuel Production from Lignocellulosic Biomass

    SciTech Connect

    Biddy, Mary J.; Davis, Ryan; Humbird, David; Tao, Ling; Dowe, Nancy; Guarnieri, Michael T.; Linger, Jeffrey G.; Karp, Eric M.; Salvachua, Davinia; Vardon, Derek R.; Beckham, Gregg T.

    2016-06-06

    Biorefinery process development relies on techno-economic analysis (TEA) to identify primary cost drivers, prioritize research directions, and mitigate technical risk for scale-up through development of detailed process designs. Here, we conduct TEA of a model 2000 dry metric ton-per-day lignocellulosic biorefinery that employs a two-step pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis to produce biomass-derived sugars, followed by biological lipid production, lipid recovery, and catalytic hydrotreating to produce renewable diesel blendstock (RDB). On the basis of projected near-term technical feasibility of these steps, we predict that RDB could be produced at a minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of USD $9.55/gasoline-gallon-equivalent (GGE), predicated on the need for improvements in the lipid productivity and yield beyond current benchmark performance. This cost is significant given the limitations in scale and high costs for aerobic cultivation of oleaginous microbes and subsequent lipid extraction/recovery. In light of this predicted cost, we developed an alternative pathway which demonstrates that RDB costs could be substantially reduced in the near term if upgradeable fractions of biomass, in this case hemicellulose-derived sugars, are diverted to coproducts of sufficient value and market size; here, we use succinic acid as an example coproduct. The coproduction model predicts an MFSP of USD $5.28/GGE when leaving conversion and yield parameters unchanged for the fuel production pathway, leading to a change in biorefinery RDB capacity from 24 to 15 MM GGE/year and 0.13 MM tons of succinic acid per year. Additional analysis demonstrates that beyond the near-term projections assumed in the models here, further reductions in the MFSP toward $2-3/GGE (which would be competitive with fossil-based hydrocarbon fuels) are possible with additional transformational improvements in the fuel and coproduct trains, especially in terms of carbon efficiency to both fuels and

  9. The Historical Role of the Production Function in Economics and Business

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, David; Vaughan, Richard

    2011-01-01

    The production function explains a basic technological relationship between scarce resources, or inputs, and output. This paper offers a brief overview of the historical significance and operational role of the production function in business and economics. The origin and development of this function over time is initially explored. Several…

  10. Integrated Emergy and Economic Evaluation of Tea Production Chains in Anxi, China

    EPA Science Inventory

    Emergy and economic methods were used to evaluate and compare tea production systems in Anxi, China. Tea production was classified into three phases, i.e., the nursery, the plantation and tea processing, and each phase was evaluated. The results showed that the nursery subsystems...

  11. The Contribution of Education to Economic Productivity. Schooling in a Technological Society.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Bevoise, Wynn

    According to traditional measures, the productivity of the American worker has declined. If education's contribution to economic productivity is to be imprortant in this decade, the measures need better definition. Technology has affected our perception of how much education is required to keep pace with growth. Those who believe there is a…

  12. ENHANCED HYDROGEN ECONOMICS VIA COPRODUCTION OF FUELS AND CARBON PRODUCTS

    SciTech Connect

    Kennel, Elliot B; Bhagavatula, Abhijit; Dadyburjor, Dady; Dixit, Santhoshi; Garlapalli, Ravinder; Magean, Liviu; Mukkha, Mayuri; Olajide, Olufemi A; Stiller, Alfred H; Yurchick, Christopher L

    2011-03-31

    This Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory sponsored research effort to develop environmentally cleaner projects as a spin-off of the FutureGen project, which seeks to reduce or eliminate emissions from plants that utilize coal for power or hydrogen production. New clean coal conversion processes were designed and tested for coproducing clean pitches and cokes used in the metals industry as well as a heavy crude oil. These new processes were based on direct liquefaction and pyrolysis techniques that liberate volatile liquids from coal without the need for high pressure or on-site gaseous hydrogen. As a result of the research, a commercial scale plant for the production of synthetic foundry coke has broken ground near Wise, Virginia under the auspices of Carbonite Inc. This plant will produce foundry coke by pyrolyzing a blend of steam coal feedstocks. A second plant is planned by Quantex Energy Inc (in Texas) which will use solvent extraction to coproduce a coke residue as well as crude oil. A third plant is being actively considered for Kingsport, Tennessee, pending a favorable resolution of regulatory issues.

  13. Petroleum production structures: economic resources for Louisiana sport divers

    SciTech Connect

    Roberts, K.J.; Thompson, M.E.

    1983-08-01

    The era of expanding petroleum production from marine waters began 12 miles off the Louisiana coast in 1947 with a joint operation. Since then, the expansion of drilling and production operations has continued until, in 1981, approximately 3,500 structures were located in the Gulf of Mexico. Of the total number of structures, federal and state waters off Louisiana contain 3,100. Scientific articles dealing with the role of structures in marine habitat and their relationship to sport fishing in the Gulf of Mexico increased over the decade. This newly publicized beneficial aspect of structures is particularly important to the marine fishery off Louisiana. The structures (to which Dugas et al. attribute 'nearly all of the offshore sport fishery') are called as platforms in their description: These platforms are supported by a prewelded framework of steel pipe. Structures in other areas of the country also attract marine life and sport fishermen. Catch rates by sport fishermen were two to three times higher near structures off California than near natural reefs. (Turner et al. 1969). This may be the result of the 'fish-concentrating' nature of structures.

  14. Can cognitive science create a cognitive economics?

    PubMed

    Chater, Nick

    2015-02-01

    Cognitive science can intersect with economics in at least three productive ways: by providing richer models of individual behaviour for use in economic analysis; by drawing from economic theory in order to model distributed cognition; and jointly to create more powerful 'rational' models of cognitive processes and social interaction. There is the prospect of moving from behavioural economics to a genuinely cognitive economics.

  15. Techno-economic analysis of bioethanol production from lignocellulosic residues in Colombia: a process simulation approach.

    PubMed

    Quintero, Julián A; Moncada, Jonathan; Cardona, Carlos A

    2013-07-01

    In this study a techno-economic analysis of the production of bioethanol from four lignocellusic (Sugarcane bagasse, Coffee cut-stems, Rice Husk, and Empty Fruit Bunches) residues is presented for the Colombian case. The ethanol production was evaluated using Aspen Plus and Aspen Process Economic Analyzer carrying out the simulation and the economic evaluation, respectively. Simulations included the composition of lignocellulosic residues, which was determined experimentally. It was found that empty fruit bunches presents the highest ethanol yield from a dry basis point of view (313.83 L/t), while rice husk produced less ethanol (250.56 L/t). The ethanol production cost was assessed for the standalone ethanol plant and the ethanol plant coupled with a cogeneration system. Moreover, ethanol production cost using EFB was the lowest with (0.49 US$/L) and without (0.58 US$/L) cogeneration scheme.

  16. Economic assessments of potato production systems in Maine

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Using an integrated enterprise and whole-farm budget model for a 324-ha medium-sized potato farm, the profitability of potatoes grown in combination with fifteen common potato rotation crops in Maine are evaluated. Enterprise budgets for all sixteen crops are calculated while a whole-farm budget syn...

  17. Production of biosolid fuels from municipal sewage sludge: Technical and economic optimisation.

    PubMed

    Wzorek, Małgorzata; Tańczuk, Mariusz

    2015-08-01

    The article presents the technical and economic analysis of the production of fuels from municipal sewage sludge. The analysis involved the production of two types of fuel compositions: sewage sludge with sawdust (PBT fuel) and sewage sludge with meat and bone meal (PBM fuel). The technology of the production line of these sewage fuels was proposed and analysed. The main objective of the study is to find the optimal production capacity. The optimisation analysis was performed for the adopted technical and economic parameters under Polish conditions. The objective function was set as a maximum of the net present value index and the optimisation procedure was carried out for the fuel production line input capacity from 0.5 to 3 t h(-1), using the search step 0.5 t h(-1). On the basis of technical and economic assumptions, economic efficiency indexes of the investment were determined for the case of optimal line productivity. The results of the optimisation analysis show that under appropriate conditions, such as prices of components and prices of produced fuels, the production of fuels from sewage sludge can be profitable. In the case of PBT fuel, calculated economic indexes show the best profitability for the capacity of a plant over 1.5 t h(-1) output, while production of PBM fuel is beneficial for a plant with the maximum of searched capacities: 3.0 t h(-1). Sensitivity analyses carried out during the investigation show that influence of both technical and economic assessments on the location of maximum of objective function (net present value) is significant.

  18. Environmental and economic suitability of forest biomass-based bioenergy production in the Southern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dwivedi, Puneet

    This study attempts to ascertain the environmental and economic suitability of utilizing forest biomass for cellulosic ethanol production in the Southern United States. The study is divided into six chapters. The first chapter details the background and defines the relevance of the study along with objectives. The second chapter reviews the existing literature to ascertain the present status of various existing conversion technologies. The third chapter assesses the net energy ratio and global warming impact of ethanol produced from slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm.) biomass. A life-cycle assessment was applied to achieve the task. The fourth chapter assesses the role of emerging bioenergy and voluntary carbon markets on the profitability of non-industrial private forest (NIPF) landowners by combining the Faustmann and Hartmann models. The fifth chapter assesses perceptions of four stakeholder groups (Non-Government Organization, Academics, Industries, and Government) on the use of forest biomass for bioenergy production in the Southern United States using the SWOT-AHP (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat-Analytical Hierarchy Process) technique. Finally, overall conclusions are made in the sixth chapter. Results indicate that currently the production of cellulosic ethanol is limited as the production cost of cellulosic ethanol is higher than the production cost of ethanol derived from corn. However, it is expected that the production cost of cellulosic ethanol will come down in the future from its current level due to ongoing research efforts. The total global warming impact of E85 fuel (production and consumption) was found as 10.44 tons where as global warming impact of an equivalent amount of gasoline (production and consumption) was 21.45 tons. This suggests that the production and use of ethanol derived from slash pine biomass in the form of E85 fuel in an automobile saves about 51% of carbon emissions when compared to gasoline. The net energy ratio

  19. Economic analysis of municipal wastewater utilization for thermoelectric power production

    SciTech Connect

    Safari, I.; Walker, M.; Abbasian, J.; Arastoopour, H.; Hsieh, M-K.; Theregowda, R.; Dzombak, D.; Miller, D.

    2011-01-01

    The thermoelectric power industry in the U.S. uses a large amount of freshwater. The large water demand is increasingly a problem, especially for new power plant development, as availability of freshwater for new uses diminishes in the United States. Reusing non-traditional water sources, such as treated municipal wastewater, provides one option to mitigate freshwater usage in the thermoelectric power industry. The amount of freshwater withdrawal that can be displaced with non-traditional water sources at a particular location requires evaluation of the water management and treatment requirements, considering the quality and abundance of the non-traditional water sources. This paper presents the development of an integrated costing model to assess the impact of degraded water treatment, as well as the implications of increased tube scaling in the main condenser. The model developed herein is used to perform case studies of various treatment, condenser cleaning and condenser configurations to provide insight into the ramifications of degraded water use in the cooling loops of thermoelectric power plants. Further, this paper lays the groundwork for the integration of relationships between degraded water quality, scaling characteristics and volatile emission within a recirculating cooling loop model.

  20. The question of Sudan: a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satti, S.; Zaitchik, B.; Siddiqui, S.

    2015-05-01

    The effects of development and the uncertainty of a changing climate in eastern Africa pose myriad challenges for water managers along the Blue Nile. Sudan's large irrigation potential, hydroelectric dams, and prime location within the basin mean that Sudan's water management decisions will have great social, economic and political implications for the region. At the same time, Sudan's water use options are constrained by tradeoffs between upstream irrigation developments and downstream hydropower facilities as well as by the country's commitments under existing or future transboundary water sharing agreements. Here, we present a model that can be applied to evaluate optimal allocation of surface water resources to irrigation and hydropower in the Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile. Hydrologic inputs are combined with agronomic and economic inputs to formulate an optimization model within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). A sensitivity analysis is performed by testing model response to a range of economic conditions and to changes in the volume and timing of hydrologic flows. Results indicate that changing hydroclimate inputs have the capacity to greatly influence the productivity of Sudan's water resource infrastructure. Results also show that the economically optimal volume of water consumption, and thus the importance of existing treaty constraints, is sensitive to the perceived value of agriculture relative to electricity as well as to changing hydrological conditions.

  1. Incorporating incorporating economic models into seasonal pool conservation planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Loftin, Cyndy; Bell, Kathleen P.; Freeman, Robert C.; Calhoun, Aram J. K.

    2012-01-01

    Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Maine have adopted regulatory zones around seasonal (vernal) pools to conserve terrestrial habitat for pool-breeding amphibians. Most amphibians require access to distinct seasonal habitats in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems because of their complex life histories. These habitat requirements make them particularly vulnerable to land uses that destroy habitat or limit connectivity (or permeability) among habitats. Regulatory efforts focusing on breeding pools without consideration of terrestrial habitat needs will not ensure the persistence of pool-breeding amphibians. We used GIS to combine a discrete-choice, parcel-scale economic model of land conversion with a landscape permeability model based on known habitat requirements of wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in Maine (USA) to examine permeability among habitat elements for alternative future scenarios. The economic model predicts future landscapes under different subdivision open space and vernal pool regulatory requirements. Our model showed that even “no build” permit zones extending 76 m (250 ft) outward from the pool edge were insufficient to assure permeability among required habitat elements. Furthermore, effectiveness of permit zones may be inconsistent due to interactions with other growth management policies, highlighting the need for local and state planning for the long-term persistence of pool-breeding amphibians in developing landscapes.

  2. Economic and Technical Assessment of Wood Biomass Fuel Gasification for Industrial Gas Production

    SciTech Connect

    Anastasia M. Gribik; Ronald E. Mizia; Harry Gatley; Benjamin Phillips

    2007-09-01

    This project addresses both the technical and economic feasibility of replacing industrial gas in lime kilns with synthesis gas from the gasification of hog fuel. The technical assessment includes a materials evaluation, processing equipment needs, and suitability of the heat content of the synthesis gas as a replacement for industrial gas. The economic assessment includes estimations for capital, construction, operating, maintenance, and management costs for the reference plant. To perform these assessments, detailed models of the gasification and lime kiln processes were developed using Aspen Plus. The material and energy balance outputs from the Aspen Plus model were used as inputs to both the material and economic evaluations.

  3. Estimating productivity costs in health economic evaluations: a review of instruments and psychometric evidence.

    PubMed

    Tang, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    Health economic evaluations (i.e. cost-effectiveness appraisal of an intervention) are useful aids for decision makers responsible for the allocation of scarce healthcare resources. The relevance of including health-related productivity costs (or benefits) in these evaluations is increasingly recognized and, as such, reliable and valid instruments to quantify productivity costs are needed. Over the years, a number of work productivity instruments have emerged in the literature, along with a growing body of psychometric evidence. The overall aim of this paper is to provide a review of available instruments with potential for estimating health-related productivity costs. This included the Health and Labor Questionnaire, Health and Work Performance Questionnaire, Health-Related Productivity Questionnaire Diary, Productivity and Disease Questionnaire, Quantity and Quality method, Stanford Presenteeism Scale 13, Valuation of Lost Productivity, Work and Health Interview, Work Limitations Questionnaire, Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire, and Work Productivity Short Inventory. Critical discussions on the instruments' overall strengths and limitations, applicability for health economic evaluations, as well as the methodological quality of existing psychometric evidence were provided. Lastly, a set of reflective questions were proposed for users to consider when selecting an instrument for health economic evaluations.

  4. Economic analysis of fuel ethanol production from winter hulled barley by the EDGE (Enhanced Dry Grind Enzymatic) process.

    PubMed

    Nghiem, Nhuan P; Ramírez, Edna C; McAloon, Andrew J; Yee, Winnie; Johnston, David B; Hicks, Kevin B

    2011-06-01

    A process and cost model was developed for fuel ethanol production from winter barley based on the EDGE (Enhanced Dry Grind Enzymatic) process. In this process, in addition to β-glucanases, which are added to reduce the viscosity of the mash, β-glucosidase is also added to completely hydrolyze the oligomers obtained during the hydrolysis of β-glucans to glucose. The model allows determination of capital costs, operating costs, and ethanol production cost for a plant producing 40 million gallons of denatured fuel ethanol annually. A sensitivity study was also performed to examine the effects of β-glucosidase and barley costs on the final ethanol production cost. The results of this study clearly demonstrate the economic benefit of adding β-glucosidase. Lower ethanol production cost was obtained compared to that obtained without β-glucosidase addition in all cases except one where highest β-glucosidase cost allowance and lowest barley cost were used.

  5. Jobs and Economic Development Impacts from Small Wind: JEDI Model in the Works (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.

    2012-06-01

    This presentation covers the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's role in economic impact analysis for wind power Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, JEDI results, small wind JEDI specifics, and a request for information to complete the model.

  6. Unification and mechanistic detail as drivers of model construction: models of networks in economics and sociology.

    PubMed

    Kuorikoski, Jaakko; Marchionni, Caterina

    2014-12-01

    We examine the diversity of strategies of modelling networks in (micro) economics and (analytical) sociology. Field-specific conceptions of what explaining (with) networks amounts to or systematic preference for certain kinds of explanatory factors are not sufficient to account for differences in modelling methodologies. We argue that network models in both sociology and economics are abstract models of network mechanisms and that differences in their modelling strategies derive to a large extent from field-specific conceptions of the way in which a good model should be a general one. Whereas the economics models aim at unification, the sociological models aim at a set of mechanism schemas that are extrapolatable to the extent that the underlying psychological mechanisms are general. These conceptions of generality induce specific biases in mechanistic explanation and are related to different views of when knowledge from different fields should be seen as relevant.

  7. Modeling Joint Climate and Bioenergy Policies: Challenges of integrating economic and environmental data. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellwinckel, C. M.; West, T. O.; de La Torre Ugarte, D.; Perlack, R.

    2010-12-01

    In the coming decades agriculture will be asked to play a significant role in reducing carbon emissions and reducing our use of foreign oil. The Renewable Fuels Standard combined with possible climate legislation will alter the economic landscape effecting agricultural land use decisions. The joint implementation of these two policies could potentially work against one another. We have integrated biogeophysical data into the POLYSYS economic model to analyze the effects of climate change and bioenergy legislation upon regional land-use change, soil carbon, carbon emissions, biofuel production, and agricultural income. The purpose of the analysis was to use the integrated model to identify carbon and bioenergy policies that could act synergistically to meet Renewable Fuel Standard goals, reduce net emissions of carbon, and increase agricultural incomes. The heterogeneous nature of soils, crop yields, and management practices presented challenges to the modeling process. Regional variation in physical data can significantly affect economic land use decisions and patterns. For this reason, we disaggregated the economic component of the model to the county level, with sub-county soils and land-use data informing the county level decisions. Modeling carbon offset dynamics presented unique challenges, as the physical responses of local soils impact the economic incentives offered, and conversely, the resulting land-use changes impact characteristics of local soils. Additionally, using data from different resolution levels led to questions of appropriate scale of analysis. This presentation will describe the integrated model, present some significant results from our analysis, and discuss appropriate steps forward given what we learned.

  8. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    PubMed Central

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences. The application of PDEs in the latter is a promising field, but widely quite open and leading to a variety of novel mathematical challenges. In this introductory article of the Theme Issue, we will provide an overview of the field and its recent boosting topics. Moreover, we will put the contributions to the Theme Issue in an appropriate perspective. PMID:25288814

  9. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences.

    PubMed

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A

    2014-11-13

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences. The application of PDEs in the latter is a promising field, but widely quite open and leading to a variety of novel mathematical challenges. In this introductory article of the Theme Issue, we will provide an overview of the field and its recent boosting topics. Moreover, we will put the contributions to the Theme Issue in an appropriate perspective.

  10. Methodology and basic algorithms of the Livermore Economic Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    Bell, R.B.

    1981-03-17

    The methodology and the basic pricing algorithms used in the Livermore Economic Modeling System (EMS) are described. The report explains the derivations of the EMS equations in detail; however, it could also serve as a general introduction to the modeling system. A brief but comprehensive explanation of what EMS is and does, and how it does it is presented. The second part examines the basic pricing algorithms currently implemented in EMS. Each algorithm's function is analyzed and a detailed derivation of the actual mathematical expressions used to implement the algorithm is presented. EMS is an evolving modeling system; improvements in existing algorithms are constantly under development and new submodels are being introduced. A snapshot of the standard version of EMS is provided and areas currently under study and development are considered briefly.

  11. Economic and environmental assessment of propionic acid production by fermentation using different renewable raw materials.

    PubMed

    Tufvesson, Pär; Ekman, Anna; Sardari, Roya R R; Engdahl, Kristina; Tufvesson, Linda

    2013-12-01

    Production of propionic acid by fermentation of glycerol as a renewable resource has been suggested as a means for developing an environmentally-friendly route for this commodity chemical. However, in order to quantify the environmental benefits, life cycle assessment of the production, including raw materials, fermentation, upstream and downstream processing is required. The economic viability of the process also needs to be analysed to make sure that any environmental savings can be realised. In this study an environmental and economic assessment from cradle-to-gate has been conducted. The study highlights the need for a highly efficient bioprocess in terms of product titre (more than 100g/L and productivity more than 2g/(L · h)) in order to be sustainable. The importance of the raw materials and energy production for operating the process to minimize emissions of greenhouse gases is also shown.

  12. Energy production, distribution, and pollution controls: Combining engineering and economic analysis to enhance efficiency and policy design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perkis, David F.

    Three published articles are presented which focus on enhancing various aspects of the energy supply chain. While each paper adopts a different methodology, all three combine engineering data and/or techniques with economic analysis to improve efficiency or policy design within energy markets. The first paper combines a chemical engineering plant design model with an economic assessment of product enhancements within an ethanol production facility. While a new chemical process is shown to achieve greater ethanol yields, the animal feed by-products are denatured and decrease in value due to the degradation of a key nutritional amino acid. Overall, yield increases outweigh any costs, providing additional value to firms adopting this process. The second paper uses a mixed integer linear model to assess the optimal location of cellulosic ethanol production facilities within the state of Indiana. Desired locations with low costs are linked to regions with high yield corn growth, as these areas provide an abundance of corn stover, a by-product of corn and a cellulosic source of ethanol. The third paper implements experimental economic methods to assess the effectiveness of policies intended to control prices in emissions permit markets. When utilizing reserve permit auctions as an alternative to setting explicit maximum prices, prices are elevated beyond the theoretical predictions of the model within the conditions of the experiment. The most likely cause of higher prices is the negotiating power provided to sellers by grandfathering permits as evidenced by higher than expected welfare gains to sellers. Before presenting the articles, a discussion is introduced regarding the role of assumptions used by economists. For each article, a key assumption is highlighted and the consequences of making a different assumption are provided. Whether the consequences are large or small, the benefits of elucidating our models with assumptions based on real world behaviors are clearly

  13. Techno-economic evaluation of a two-step biological process for hydrogen production.

    PubMed

    Ljunggren, Mattias; Zacchi, Guido

    2010-01-01

    An integrated biological process for the production of hydrogen based on thermophilic and photo-heterotrophic fermentation was evaluated from a technical and economic standpoint. Besides the two fermentation steps the process also includes pretreatment of the raw material (potato steam peels) and purification of hydrogen using amine absorption. The study aimed neither at determining the absolute cost of biohydrogen nor at an economic optimization of the production process, but rather at studying the effects of different parameters on the production costs of biohydrogen as a guideline for future improvements. The effect of the key parameters, hydrogen productivity and yield and substrate concentration in the two fermentations on the cost of the hydrogen produced was studied. The selection of the process conditions was based mainly on laboratory data. The process was simulated by use of the software Aspen Plus and the capital costs were estimated using the program Aspen Icarus Process Evaluator. The study shows that the photo-fermentation is the main contributor to the hydrogen production cost mainly because of the cost of plastic tubing, for the photo-fermentors, which represents 40.5% of the hydrogen production cost. The costs of the capital investment and chemicals were also notable contributors to the hydrogen production cost. Major economic improvements could be achieved by increasing the productivity of the two fermentation steps on a medium-term to long-term scale.

  14. Methanol production with elemental phosphorus byproduct gas: technical and economic feasibility

    SciTech Connect

    Lyke, S.E.; Moore, R.H.

    1981-01-01

    The technical and economic feasibility of using a typical, elemental, phosphorus byproduct gas stream in methanol production is assessed. The purpose of the study is to explore the potential of a substitute for natural gas. The first part of the study establishes economic tradeoffs between several alternative methods of supplying the hydrogen which is needed in the methanol synthesis process to react with CO from the off gas. The preferred alternative is the Battelle Process, which uses natural gas in combination with the off gas in an economically sized methanol plant. The second part of the study presents a preliminary basic design of a plant to (1) clean and compress the off gas, (2) return recovered phosphorus to the phosphorus plant, and (3) produce methanol by the Battelle Process. Use of elemental phosphorus byproduct gas in methanol production appears to be technically feasible. The Battelle Process shows a definite but relatively small economic advantage over conventional methanol manufacture based on natural gas alone. The process would be economically feasible only where natural gas supply and methanol market conditions at a phosphorus plant are not significantly less favorable than at competing methanol plants. If off-gas streams from two or more phosphorus plants could be combined, production of methanol using only offgas might also be economically feasible. The North American methanol market, however, does not seem likely to require another new methanol project until after 1990. The off-gas cleanup, compression, and phosphorus-recovery system could be used to produce a CO-rich stream that could be economically attractive for production of several other chemicals besides methanol.

  15. Toward a synthetic economic systems modeling tool for sustainable exploitation of ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Colin; Courvisanos, Jerry; Crawford, John W

    2011-02-01

    Environmental resources that underpin the basic human needs of water, energy, and food are predicted to become in such short supply by 2050 that global security and the well-being of millions will be under threat. These natural commodities have been allowed to reach crisis levels of supply because of a failure of economic systems to sustain them. This is largely because there have been no means of integrating their exploitation into any economic model that effectively addresses ecological systemic failures in a way that provides an integrated ecological-economic tool that can monitor and evaluate market and policy targets. We review the reasons for this and recent attempts to address the problem while identifying outstanding issues. The key elements of a policy-oriented economic model that integrates ecosystem processes are described and form the basis of a proposed new synthesis approach. The approach is illustrated by an indicative case study that develops a simple model for rainfed and irrigated food production in the Murray-Darling basin of southeastern Australia.

  16. Economic Pressure in African American Families: A Replication and Extension of the Family Stress Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Conger, Rand D.; Wallace, Lora Ebert; Sun, Yumei; Simons, Ronald L.; McLoyd, Vonnie C.; Brody, Gene H.

    2002-01-01

    Evaluated applicability of family stress model of economic hardship for understanding economic influences on child development among African American families with a 10- or 11-year-old child. Found that economic hardship positively related to economic pressure in families, and to emotional distress of caregivers, which in turn damaged the…

  17. Automated Decisional Model for Optimum Economic Order Quantity Determination Using Price Regressive Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roşu, M. M.; Tarbă, C. I.; Neagu, C.

    2016-11-01

    The current models for inventory management are complementary, but together they offer a large pallet of elements for solving complex problems of companies when wanting to establish the optimum economic order quantity for unfinished products, row of materials, goods etc. The main objective of this paper is to elaborate an automated decisional model for the calculus of the economic order quantity taking into account the price regressive rates for the total order quantity. This model has two main objectives: first, to determine the periodicity when to be done the order n or the quantity order q; second, to determine the levels of stock: lighting control, security stock etc. In this way we can provide the answer to two fundamental questions: How much must be ordered? When to Order? In the current practice, the business relationships with its suppliers are based on regressive rates for price. This means that suppliers may grant discounts, from a certain level of quantities ordered. Thus, the unit price of the products is a variable which depends on the order size. So, the most important element for choosing the optimum for the economic order quantity is the total cost for ordering and this cost depends on the following elements: the medium price per units, the stock cost, the ordering cost etc.

  18. Economics of electricity production and distribution in rural areas of Nepal

    SciTech Connect

    Rijal, K.; Bansal, N.K.; Grover, P.D. )

    1990-01-01

    This paper aims at providing the comparative economics from a national perspective (economic analysis) and a users perspective (financial analysis) of low capacity (5-15 KW) electrical add-on systems and medium capacity (25-50 KW) electrical systems to provide electrical energy from various energy sources at three villages of Nepal, each from a different physiographic zone. In general, the increasing economic price of traditional energies coupled with deforestation in rural areas of developing countries and the increasing need for foreign exchange for import of fossil fuels, favors the judicial exploitation of renewable energy for electricity generation. The load factor is one of the most important factors that dictate the economic and financial supply price of electricity production and distribution. It is recommended that a detailed site-specific electricity demand analysis be carried out with appropriate end-use planning for decentralized rural electrification schemes.

  19. Drug versus vaccine investment: a modelled comparison of economic incentives

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Investment by manufacturers in research and development of vaccines is relatively low compared with that of pharmaceuticals. If current evaluation technologies favour drugs over vaccines, then the vaccines market becomes relatively less attractive to manufacturers. Methods We developed a mathematical model simulating the decision-making process of regulators and payers, in order to understand manufacturers’ economic incentives to invest in vaccines rather than curative treatments. We analysed the objectives and strategies of manufacturers and payers when considering investment in technologies to combat a disease that affects children, and the interactions between them. Results The model confirmed that, for rare diseases, the economically justifiable prices of vaccines could be substantially lower than drug prices, and that, for diseases spread across multiple cohorts, the revenues derived from vaccinating one cohort per year (routine vaccination) could be substantially lower than those generated by treating sick individuals. Conclusions Manufacturers may see higher incentives to invest in curative treatments rather than in routine vaccines. To encourage investment in vaccines, health authorities could potentially revise their incentive schemes by: (1) committing to vaccinate all susceptible cohorts in the first year (catch-up campaign); (2) choosing a long-term horizon for health technology evaluation; (3) committing higher budgets for vaccines than for treatments; and (4) taking into account all intangible values derived from vaccines. PMID:24011090

  20. Measuring the intangibles: a metrics for the economic complexity of countries and products.

    PubMed

    Cristelli, Matthieu; Gabrielli, Andrea; Tacchella, Andrea; Caldarelli, Guido; Pietronero, Luciano

    2013-01-01

    We investigate a recent methodology we have proposed to extract valuable information on the competitiveness of countries and complexity of products from trade data. Standard economic theories predict a high level of specialization of countries in specific industrial sectors. However, a direct analysis of the official databases of exported products by all countries shows that the actual situation is very different. Countries commonly considered as developed ones are extremely diversified, exporting a large variety of products from very simple to very complex. At the same time countries generally considered as less developed export only the products also exported by the majority of countries. This situation calls for the introduction of a non-monetary and non-income-based measure for country economy complexity which uncovers the hidden potential for development and growth. The statistical approach we present here consists of coupled non-linear maps relating the competitiveness/fitness of countries to the complexity of their products. The fixed point of this transformation defines a metrics for the fitness of countries and the complexity of products. We argue that the key point to properly extract the economic information is the non-linearity of the map which is necessary to bound the complexity of products by the fitness of the less competitive countries exporting them. We present a detailed comparison of the results of this approach directly with those of the Method of Reflections by Hidalgo and Hausmann, showing the better performance of our method and a more solid economic, scientific and consistent foundation.

  1. PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION OF DIETARY PROTEIN AND CARBOHYDRATE IN THE CULTURE OF JUVENILE SEA URCHIN Lytechinus variegatus.

    PubMed

    Heflin, Laura E; Makowsky, Robert; Taylor, J Christopher; Williams, Michael B; Lawrence, Addison L; Watts, Stephen A

    2016-10-01

    Juvenile Lytechinus variegatus (ca. 3.95± 0.54 g) were fed one of 10 formulated diets with different protein (ranging from 11- 43%) and carbohydrate (12 or 18%; brackets determined from previous studies) levels. Urchins (n= 16 per treatment) were fed a daily sub-satiation ration equivalent to 2.0% of average body weight for 10 weeks. Our objective was (1) to create predictive models of growth, production and efficiency outcomes and (2) to generate economic analysis models in relation to these dietary outcomes for juvenile L. variegatus held in culture. At dietary protein levels below ca. 30%, models for most growth and production outcomes predicted increased rates of growth and production among urchins fed diets containing 18% dietary carbohydrate levels as compared to urchins fed diets containing 12% dietary carbohydrate. For most outcomes, growth and production was predicted to increase with increasing level of dietary protein up to ca. 30%, after which, no further increase in growth and production were predicted. Likewise, dry matter production efficiency was predicted to increase with increasing protein level up to ca. 30%, with urchins fed diets with 18% carbohydrate exhibiting greater efficiency than those fed diets with 12% carbohydrate. The energetic cost of dry matter production was optimal at protein levels less than those required for maximal weight gain and gonad production, suggesting an increased energetic cost (decreased energy efficiency) is required to increase gonad production relative to somatic growth. Economic analysis models predict when cost of feed ingredients are low, the lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 18% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 25- 30% dietary protein. In contrast, lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 12% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 35- 40% dietary protein when feed ingredient costs are high or average. For both 18 and 12% levels of dietary carbohydrate, cost per gram of wet weight gain is

  2. Advanced process modeling at the BCL smelter: Improving economic and environmental performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tripathi, Nagendra; Peek, Edgar; Stroud, Milton

    2011-01-01

    Since 1973 Bamangwato Concessions Limited (BCL) has operated a nickel-copper smelter in Selebi-Phikwe, Botswana. The smelter treats concentrates from local mines and various custom feed concentrates. The nickel throughput capacity of this smelter is constrained by a low nickel feed grade in its primary BCL concentrate. BCL contracted Xstrata Process Support (XPS) to assist in identifying key economic drivers to maximize revenue-generating opportunities. After the disclosure of essential BCL plant performance data XPS developed and utilized advanced metallurgical modeling techniques to identify production bottlenecks, calculate Ni, Cu, and Co recoveries, manage the slag volumes, increase the custom feed capacity, and perform various feasibility analyses for key unit process operations in the BCL smelter. The methodology for developing the process model and its application in contributing to the economic bottom line are outlined in this paper.

  3. The Hanford Site New Production Reactor (NPR) economic and demographic baseline forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    Cluett, C.; Clark, D.C. ); Pittenger, D.B. )

    1990-08-01

    The objective of this is to present baseline employment and population forecasts for Benton, Franklin, and Yakima Counties. These forecasts will be used in the socioeconomic analysis portion of the New Production Reactor Environmental Impact Statement. Aggregate population figures for the three counties in the study area were developed for high- and low-growth scenarios for the study period 1990 through 2040. Age-sex distributions for the three counties during the study period are also presented. The high and low scenarios were developed using high and low employment projections for the Hanford site. Hanford site employment figures were used as input for the HARC-REMI Economic and Demographic (HED) model to produced baseline employment forecasts for the three counties. These results, in turn, provided input to an integrated three-county demographic model. This model, a fairly standard cohort-component model, formalizes the relationship between employment and migration by using migration to equilibrate differences in labor supply and demand. In the resulting population estimates, age-sex distributions for 1981 show the relatively large work force age groups in Benton County while Yakima County reflects higher proportions of the population in the retirement ages. The 2040 forecasts for all three counties reflect the age effects of relatively constant and low fertility increased longevity, as well as the cumulative effects of the migration assumptions in the model. By 2040 the baby boom population will be 75 years and older, contributing to the higher proportion of population in the upper end age group. The low scenario age composition effects are similar. 13 refs., 5 figs., 9 tabs.

  4. Techno-economic assessment of catalytic gasification of biomass powders for methanol production.

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Lara; Furusjö, Erik; Kirtania, Kawnish; Wetterlund, Elisabeth; Lundgren, Joakim; Anheden, Marie; Wolf, Jens

    2017-02-08

    This study evaluated the techno-economic performance and potential benefits of methanol production through catalytic gasification of forest residues and lignin. The results showed that while catalytic gasification enables increased cold gas efficiencies and methanol yields compared to non-catalytic gasification, the additional pre-treatment energy and loss of electricity production result in small or no system efficiency improvements. The resulting required methanol selling prices (90-130€/MWh) are comparable with production costs for other biofuels. It is concluded that catalytic gasification of forest residues can be an attractive option as it provides operational advantages at production costs comparable to non-catalytic gasification. The addition of lignin would require lignin costs below 25€/MWh to be economically beneficial.

  5. Environmental and economic aspects of hydrogen production and utilization in fuel cell vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granovskii, Mikhail; Dincer, Ibrahim; Rosen, Marc A.

    A smooth transition from gasoline-powered internal combustion engine vehicles to ecologically clean hydrogen fuel cell vehicles depends on the process used for hydrogen production. Three technologies for hydrogen production are considered here: traditional hydrogen production via natural gas reforming, and the use of two renewable technologies (wind and solar electricity generation) to produce hydrogen via water electrolysis. It is shown that a decrease of environmental impact (air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions) as a result of hydrogen implementation as a fuel is accompanied by a decline in the economic efficiency (as measured by capital investments effectiveness). A mathematical procedure is proposed to obtain numerical estimates of environmental and economic criteria interactions in the form of sustainability indexes. On the basis of the obtained sustainability indexes, it is concluded that hydrogen production from wind energy via electrolysis is more advantageous for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and traditional natural gas reforming is more favorable for reducing air pollution.

  6. Environmental, economic and social impact of aviation biofuel production in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Cremonez, Paulo André; Feroldi, Michael; de Jesus de Oliveira, Carlos; Teleken, Joel Gustavo; Alves, Helton José; Sampaio, Silvio Cézar

    2015-03-25

    The Brazilian aviation industry is currently developing biofuel technologies that can maintain the operational and energy demands of the sector, while reducing the dependence on fossil fuels (mainly kerosene) and greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of the current research was to identify the major environmental, economic and social impacts arising from the production of aviation biofuels in Brazil. Despite the great potential of these fuels, there is a significant need for improved routes of production and specifically for lower production costs of these materials. In addition, the productive chains of raw materials for obtaining these bioenergetics can be linked to environmental impacts by NOx emissions, extensive use of agricultural land, loss of wildlife and intensive water use, as well as economic, social and political impacts.

  7. Comprehensive techno-economic analysis of wastewater-based algal biofuel production: A case study.

    PubMed

    Xin, Chunhua; Addy, Min M; Zhao, Jinyu; Cheng, Yanling; Cheng, Sibo; Mu, Dongyan; Liu, Yuhuan; Ding, Rijia; Chen, Paul; Ruan, Roger

    2016-07-01

    Combining algae cultivation and wastewater treatment for biofuel production is considered the feasible way for resource utilization. An updated comprehensive techno-economic analysis method that integrates resources availability into techno-economic analysis was employed to evaluate the wastewater-based algal biofuel production with the consideration of wastewater treatment improvement, greenhouse gases emissions, biofuel production costs, and coproduct utilization. An innovative approach consisting of microalgae cultivation on centrate wastewater, microalgae harvest through flocculation, solar drying of biomass, pyrolysis of biomass to bio-oil, and utilization of co-products, was analyzed and shown to yield profound positive results in comparison with others. The estimated break even selling price of biofuel ($2.23/gallon) is very close to the acceptable level. The approach would have better overall benefits and the internal rate of return would increase up to 18.7% if three critical components, namely cultivation, harvest, and downstream conversion could achieve breakthroughs.

  8. HIGH-TEMPERATURE ELECTROLYSIS FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROGEN AND SYNGAS PRODUCTION FROM NUCLEAR ENERGY – SYSTEM SIMULATION AND ECONOMICS

    SciTech Connect

    J. E. O'Brien; M. G. McKellar; E. A. Harvego; C. M. Stoots

    2009-05-01

    A research and development program is under way at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to assess the technological and scale-up issues associated with the implementation of solid-oxide electrolysis cell technology for efficient high-temperature hydrogen production from steam. This work is supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy, under the Nuclear Hydrogen Initiative. This paper will provide an overview of large-scale system modeling results and economic analyses that have been completed to date. System analysis results have been obtained using the commercial code UniSim, augmented with a custom high-temperature electrolyzer module. Economic analysis results were based on the DOE H2A analysis methodology. The process flow diagrams for the system simulations include an advanced nuclear reactor as a source of high-temperature process heat, a power cycle and a coupled steam electrolysis loop. Several reactor types and power cycles have been considered, over a range of reactor outlet temperatures. Pure steam electrolysis for hydrogen production as well as coelectrolysis for syngas production from steam/carbon dioxide mixtures have both been considered. In addition, the feasibility of coupling the high-temperature electrolysis process to biomass and coal-based synthetic fuels production has been considered. These simulations demonstrate that the addition of supplementary nuclear hydrogen to synthetic fuels production from any carbon source minimizes emissions of carbon dioxide during the production process.

  9. Economic implications of mercury exposure in the context of the global mercury treaty: Hair mercury levels and estimated lost economic productivity in selected developing countries.

    PubMed

    Trasande, Leonardo; DiGangi, Joseph; Evers, David C; Petrlik, Jindrich; Buck, David G; Šamánek, Jan; Beeler, Bjorn; Turnquist, Madeline A; Regan, Kevin

    2016-12-01

    Several developing countries have limited or no information about exposures near anthropogenic mercury sources and no studies have quantified costs of mercury pollution or economic benefits to mercury pollution prevention in these countries. In this study, we present data on mercury concentrations in human hair from subpopulations in developing countries most likely to benefit from the implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. These data are then used to estimate economic costs of mercury exposure in these communities. Hair samples were collected from sites located in 15 countries. We used a linear dose-response relationship that previously identified a 0.18 IQ point decrement per part per million (ppm) increase in hair mercury, and modeled a base case scenario assuming a reference level of 1 ppm, and a second scenario assuming no reference level. We then estimated the corresponding increases in intellectual disability and lost Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). A total of 236 participants provided hair samples for analysis, with an estimated population at risk of mercury exposure near the 15 sites of 11,302,582. Average mercury levels were in the range of 0.48 ppm-4.60 ppm, and 61% of all participants had hair mercury concentrations greater than 1 ppm, the level that approximately corresponds to the USA EPA reference dose. An additional 1310 cases of intellectual disability attributable to mercury exposure were identified annually (4110 assuming no reference level), resulting in 16,501 lost DALYs (51,809 assuming no reference level). A total of $77.4 million in lost economic productivity was estimated assuming a 1 ppm reference level and $130 million if no reference level was used. We conclude that significant mercury exposures occur in developing and transition country communities near sources named in the Minamata Convention, and our estimates suggest that a large economic burden could be avoided by timely implementation of measures to

  10. JPRS Report. Soviet Union, EKO: Economics & Organization of Industrial Production No. 4, April 1987

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    300,000 people who died from cancer in 1982. Each year the world produces about 500 new products and preparations whose biological activity is...when entering the vocational and technical schools, the tekhnikums, and the VUZes the students would be less infantile in their economic preparation

  11. Stimulating the Manufacturing and Distribution of Rehabilitation Products: Economic and Policy Incentives and Disincentives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scadden, Lawrence A.

    Personal interviews and written correspondence were used to obtain information from 39 officers of companies involved in the manufacture and distribution of rehabilitation-related products, regarding their perceptions of the potential effects of various economic factors and governmental policies. An attempt was made to identify disincentives to…

  12. 50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 11 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (CONTINUED) SHELLFISH FISHERIES OF...

  13. 50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 13 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE (CONTINUED) SHELLFISH FISHERIES OF...

  14. Economic impact of GM crops: the global income and production effects 1996-2012.

    PubMed

    Brookes, Graham; Barfoot, Peter

    2014-01-01

    A key part of any assessment of the global value of crop biotechnology in agriculture is an examination of its economic impact at the farm level. This paper follows earlier annual studies which examined economic impacts on yields, key costs of production, direct farm income and effects, and impacts on the production base of the four main crops of soybeans, corn, cotton and canola. The commercialization of genetically modified (GM) crops has continued to occur at a rapid rate, with important changes in both the overall level of adoption and impact occurring in 2012. This annual updated analysis shows that there have been very significant net economic benefits at the farm level amounting to $18.8 billion in 2012 and $116.6 billion for the 17-year period (in nominal terms). These economic gains have been divided roughly 50% each to farmers in developed and developing countries. GM technology have also made important contributions to increasing global production levels of the four main crops, having added 122 million tonnes and 230 million tonnes respectively, to the global production of soybeans and maize since the introduction of the technology in the mid-1990s.

  15. Estimating Green Net National Product for Puerto Rico: An Economic Measure of Sustainability (Journal article)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper presents the data sources and methodology used to estimate Green Net National Product (GNNP), an economic metric of sustainability, for Puerto Rico. Using the change in GNNP as a one-sided test of weak sustainability (i.e., positive growth in GNNP is not enough to show...

  16. Economic Growth, Productivity, and Public Education Funding: Is South Carolina a Death Spiral State?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Driscoll, Lisa G.; Knoeppel, Robert C.; Della Sala, Matthew R.; Watson, Jim R.

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the Great Recession of 2007-2009, most states experienced declines in employment, consumer spending, and economic productivity (Alm, Buschman, and Sjoquist 2011). In turn, these events led to historic declines in state tax revenues (Mikesell and Mullins 2010; Boyd and Dadayan 2009), resulting in major cuts in public spending. Local…

  17. Futures Symposium. Youth, Work & Economic Productivity: Wisconsin at Risk? Parker Project Number 7. Bulletin No. 4413.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oinonen, Charlotte M.

    These proceedings consist of the texts of papers and panel discussions presented at a Parker Project-sponsored futures symposium on youth, work, economic productivity, and the challenges facing Wisconsin's secondary schools in providing job training for the future. Addressed in the individual presentations included in this volume are the…

  18. Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging.

    PubMed

    Jackson, Christopher H; Thompson, Simon G; Sharples, Linda D

    2009-04-01

    Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aortic aneurysms. In model averaging, competing models are usually either weighted by using an asymptotically consistent model assessment criterion, such as the Bayesian information criterion, or a measure of predictive ability, such as Akaike's information criterion. We argue that the predictive approach is more suitable when modelling the complex underlying processes of interest in health economics, such as individual disease progression and response to treatment.

  19. Measuring economic complexity of countries and products: which metric to use?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Vidmer, Alexandre; Medo, Matsúš; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Evaluating the economies of countries and their relations with products in the global market is a central problem in economics, with far-reaching implications to our theoretical understanding of the international trade as well as to practical applications, such as policy making and financial investment planning. The recent Economic Complexity approach aims to quantify the competitiveness of countries and the quality of the exported products based on the empirical observation that the most competitive countries have diversified exports, whereas developing countries only export few low quality products - typically those exported by many other countries. Two different metrics, Fitness-Complexity and the Method of Reflections, have been proposed to measure country and product score in the Economic Complexity framework. We use international trade data and a recent ranking evaluation measure to quantitatively compare the ability of the two metrics to rank countries and products according to their importance in the network. The results show that the Fitness-Complexity metric outperforms the Method of Reflections in both the ranking of products and the ranking of countries. We also investigate a generalization of the Fitness-Complexity metric and show that it can produce improved rankings provided that the input data are reliable.

  20. Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

    2016-04-01

    Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been a noteworthy feature in the development of most civilisations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple sectors of the economy, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy; and (ii) by reducing the acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate these risks in order to promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior work to conceptualise the relationship between water-related risks and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical model of water-related investment, risk, and growth at the national level. The model suggests the existence of a context-specific threshold above which growth proceeds along an 'S'-curve. In many cases there is a requirement for initial investment in water-related assets to enable growth. Below the threshold it is possible for a poverty trap to arise. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the relative exposure of productive water-related assets to risk, compared with risks faced by assets in the wider economy. Exogenous changes in the level of water-related risk (through, for example, climate and land cover change) can potentially push an economy away from a growth path towards a poverty trap. These results illustrate the value of accounting for environmental risk in models of economic growth and may offer guidance in the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, particularly in the face of global and regional environmental change.

  1. The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

    SciTech Connect

    Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

  2. Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: A User-Friendly Tool to Calculate Economic Impacts from Wind Projects; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Sinclair, K.; Milligan, M.; Goldberg, M.

    2004-03-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy/National Renewable Energy Laboratory (DOE/NREL) has developed a spreadsheet-based wind model (Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI)) that incorporates economic multipliers for jobs, income, and output. Originally developed with state-specific parameters, it can also be used to conduct county and regional analyses. NREL has enlisted the Wind Powering America (WPA) State Wind Working Groups (SWWGs) to conduct county-specific economic impact analyses and has encouraged them to use JEDI if they do not have their own economic model. The objective of the analyses is to identify counties within WPA target states, and preferably counties with a significant agricultural sector, that could economically benefit from wind development. These counties could then explore opportunities to tap into the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Farm Bill Section 9006 grants and loans to stimulate wind development. This paper describes the JEDI model and how i t can be used. We will also summarize a series of analyses that were completed to fulfill a General Accounting Office (GAO) request to provide estimates of the economic development benefits of wind power.

  3. Technology for Improving Production, Economic Efficiency, Quality, and Sustainability in Peanut Production and Handling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    USDA ARS National Peanut Research Laboratory has a very diverse scientific staff conducting research to address the needs of the United States peanut industry. Research is conducted in the fields of mycology, chemistry, biochemistry, molecular biology, breeding, agronomy, economics, and engineering....

  4. Technology for Improving Production, Economic Efficiency, Quality and Sustainability in Peanut Production and Handling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    USDA ARS National Peanut Research Laboratory has a very diverse scientific staff conducting research to address the needs of the United States peanut industry. Research is conducted in the fields of mycology, chemistry, biochemistry, molecular biology, breeding, agronomy, economics, and engineering....

  5. Technology for improving production, economic efficiency, quality, and sustainability in peanut production and handling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    USDA ARS National Peanut Research Laboratory has a very diverse scientific staff conducting research to address the needs of the United States peanut industry. Research is conducted in the fields of mycology, chemistry, biochemistry, molecular biology, breeding, agronomy, economics, and engineering....

  6. Chicago School Reform and the Production Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valente, Michael E.

    The passage of the Chicago (Illinois) School Reform Act introduced a model of schools called the production model. This model defines the structures of the school by its inputs, throughputs (or production process), and outputs. The production model produces quantitative reports describing the fiscal condition and the quality of output, thus…

  7. Pretreatment solution recycling and high-concentration output for economical production of bioethanol.

    PubMed

    Han, Minhee; Moon, Se-Kwon; Choi, Gi-Wook

    2014-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to enhance the economic efficiency of producing bioethanol. Pretreatment solution recycling is expected to increase economic efficiency by reducing the cost of pretreatment and the amount of wastewater. In addition, the production of high-concentration bioethanol could increase economic efficiency by reducing the energy cost of distillation. The pretreatment conditions were 95 °C, 0.72 M NaOH, 80 rpm twin-screw speed, and flow rate of 90 mL/min at 18 g/min of raw biomass feeding for pretreatment solution recycling. The pretreatment with NaOH solution recycling was conducted five times. All of the components and the pretreatment efficiency were similar, despite reuse. In addition, we developed a continuous biomass feeding system for production of high-concentration bioethanol. Using this reactor, the bioethanol productivity was investigated using various pretreated biomass feeding rates in a simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) process. The maximum ethanol concentration, yield, and productivity were 74.5 g/L, 89.5%, and 1.4 g/L h, respectively, at a pretreated biomass loading of approximately 25% (w/v) with an enzyme dosage of 30 FPU g/cellulose. The results presented here constitute an important contribution toward the production of bioethanol from Miscanthus.

  8. Economic analysis of alcohol production in Thailand and its implication on trade with Japan

    SciTech Connect

    Netayaraks, P.

    1983-01-01

    This research examined the economic feasibility of alcohol production from cassava, sugarcane, and sweet sorghum in 1981 and 1986, and evaluated the economic impact of alcohol production on agriculture output, prices and trade with Japan. Alcohol production from molasses and cassava would be competitive at current energy price levels. Sugarcane, in contrast, would be competitive only if energy prices are increased by 20%, but cassava would still be the preferred choice. The possibility of using cassava or sugarcane as energy feedstocks depends on specific location. Cassava would be used to produce alcohol in the northeast, while energy feedstocks for alcohol production in the central and eastern regions would be either cassava or sugarcane. Energy demand for alcohol as a blended fuel (20% alcohol and 80% gasoline) could be met if energy prices increase 5% above present levels. Complete substitution of alcohol for gasoline (pure fuel) would be possible only if energy prices are increased by 30%. Alcohol exports would be economically possible only after fuel domestic demand had been met. The impact of alcohol production on domestic crop demand, exports and prices depends on the potential alcohol demand and varies by crop.

  9. Production effects related to mastitis and mastitis economics in dairy cattle herds.

    PubMed

    Seegers, Henri; Fourichon, Christine; Beaudeau, François

    2003-01-01

    Mastitis is the most prevalent production disease in dairy herds world-wide and is responsible for several production effects. Milk yield and composition can be affected by a more or less severe short-term depression and, in case of no cure, by a long-acting effect, and, sometimes, an overlapping effect to the next lactation. Summary values in the literature for losses of milk production were proposed at 375 kg for a clinical case (5% at the lactation level) and at 0.5 kg per 2-fold increase of crude SCC of a cow. Due to the withdrawal period after treatment, composition changes in milk can almost be neglected in economic calculations. Lethality rate for clinical mastitis is very low on the average, while anticipated culling occurs more frequently after clinical and subclinical mastitis (relative risk between 1.5 and 5.0). The economics of mastitis needs to be addressed at the farm level and, per se, depends on local and regional epidemiological, managerial and economic conditions. To assess the direct economic impact of mastitis, costs (i.e. extra resource use) and losses (i.e. reduced revenues) have to be aggregated. To support decision making for udder health control, it is necessary to use a marginal approach, based on the comparison of the losses avoided and the additional costs of modified plans, compared to the existing ones.

  10. Economic Analysis of Energy Crop Production in the U.S. - Location, Quantities, Price, and Impacts on Traditional Agricultural Crops

    SciTech Connect

    Walsh, M.E.; De La Torre Ugarte, D.; Slinsky, S.; Graham, R.L.; Shapouri, H.; Ray, D.

    1998-10-04

    POLYSYS is used to estimate US locations where, for any given energy crop price, energy crop production can be economically competitive with conventional crops. POLYSYS is a multi-crop, multi-sector agricultural model developed and maintained by the University of Tennessee and used by the USDA-Economic Research Service. It includes 305 agricultural statistical districts (ASD) which can be aggregated to provide state, regional, and national information. POLYSYS is being modified to include switchgrass, hybrid poplar, and willow on all land suitable for their production. This paper summarizes the preliminary national level results of the POLYSYS analysis for selected energy crop prices for the year 2007 and presents the corresponding maps (for the same prices) of energy crop production locations by ASD. Summarized results include: (1) estimates of energy crop hectares (acres) and quantities (dry Mg, dry tons), (2) identification of traditional crops allocated to energy crop production and calculation of changes in their prices and hectares (acres) of production, and (3) changes in total net farm returns for traditional agricultural crops. The information is useful for identifying areas of the US where large quantities of lowest cost energy crops can most likely be produced.

  11. Revisiting the Economic Injury Level and Economic Threshold Model for Potato Leafhopper (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) in Alfalfa.

    PubMed

    Chasen, Elissa M; Undersander, Dan J; Cullen, Eileen M

    2015-08-01

    The economic injury level for potato leafhopper, Empoasca fabae (Harris), in alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) was developed over 30 yr ago. In response to increasing market value of alfalfa, farmers and consultants are interested in reducing the economic threshold for potato leafhopper in alfalfa. To address this question, caged field trials were established on two consecutive potato leafhopper susceptible crops in 2013. Field cages were infested with a range of potato leafhopper densities to create a linear regression of alfalfa yield response. The slopes, or yield loss per insect, for the linear regressions of both trials were used to calculate an economic injury level for a range of current alfalfa market values and control costs. This yield-loss relationship is the first quantification that could be used to help assess whether the economic threshold should be lowered, given the increased market value of alfalfa.

  12. Economic, ecological, and social performance of conventional and organic broiler production in the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Bokkers, E A M; de Boer, I J M

    2009-09-01

    1. In this study, we compared a conventional broiler production system keeping fast growing broilers with an organic broiler production system keeping slow growing broilers in the Netherlands, both managed by one person working a full time year (Full Time Equivalent, FTE). This comparison was based on a quantification of economic, ecological and social indicators. Indicators were quantified using scientific literature and national data sets. 2. The organic system performed better for the economic indicator net farm income per FTE than the conventional system. 3. Regarding ecological indicators, calculations showed a higher on-farm emission of ammonia per kg live weight for the organic system. Moreover, an organic system includes a higher risk for eutrophication per ha due to outdoor access. Emission of green house gasses, use of fossil fuels and use of land required for the production of one kg of live weight is higher for an organic than for a conventional system. This is mainly due to a lower feed conversion in organic production and use of organic feed. 4. The organic system performed better than the conventional system for the social indicators related to animal welfare time spent on walking, footpad lesions, mortality, and sound legs. Regarding the social indicator food safety was found that meat from an organic system contained less antibiotic residues and Salmonella contaminations but more Campylobacter contaminations than meat from a conventional system. 5. Changing from a conventional to an organic broiler production system, therefore, not only affects animal welfare, but also affects economic, ecological and other social issues. In this study, we ran into the situation that some information needed was lacking in literature and quantifications had to be based upon several sources. Therefore, an integrated on-farm assessment is needed, which can be used to develop a broiler production system that is economically profitable, ecologically sound, and

  13. Medico-economic evaluation of health products in the context of the Social Security Financing Act for 2012.

    PubMed

    Dervaux, Benoît; Baseilhac, Eric; Fagon, Jean-Yves; Ameye, Véronique; Angot, Pierre; Audry, Antoine; Becquemont, Laurent; Borel, Thomas; Cazeneuve, Béatrice; Courtois, Jocelyn; Detournay, Bruno; Favre, Pascal; Granger, Muriel; Josseran, Anne; Lassale, Catherine; Louvet, Olivier; Pinson, Jean; de Pouvourville, Gérard; Rochaix, Lise; Rumeau-Pichon, Catherine; de Saab, Rima; Schwarzinger, Mickaël; Sun, Aristide

    2013-01-01

    The participants in round table 6 of the Giens Workshops 2012 drafted recommendations based on the collective interpretation of important elements of the decree concerning the medico-economic evaluation of health products published a few days earlier (02 October 2012). The medico-economic evaluation (MEE), becomes an additional determinant for fixing the prices of health products by the Health products economic committee (Comité économique des produits de santé, CEPS) via the hierarchisation of treatment strategies, and thus modifies the market access conditions. Limiting the analysis to medicinal products and medical devices for which a major, important or moderate improvement in the medical service rendered (ASMR) or of the expected service (ASA) has been requested and presenting a significant budget impact on the Social Security expenses, excludes health products with ASMR or ASA with a lower level requested which often create complex price fixing problems and often have a major budget impact. This latter concept remains to be defined in detail. The MEE envisaged for the first registration must include the need to confirm or refute the initial hypotheses especially concerning the actual position in the therapeutic strategy at the time of renewal of the registration. For the first registration, the conventional reference to European prices guaranteeing a minimum price to innovative medicinal products, the medico-economic models submitted by the industry to the French Drug Authority (Haute autorité de santé, HAS) must be used to guide the compilation of new data to be requested at the time of the registration renewal and to negotiate the level of the discounts in the framework of a price-volume agreement, if applicable. The MEE will allow comparing the result of the analysis to the model hypothesis at the time of the renewal of the registration, which may contribute to the renegotiation (either up or down) of the price of health goods. The costs related to

  14. Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erickson, Jon David

    The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

  15. Fermion masses in the economical 3-3-1 model

    SciTech Connect

    Dong, P. V.; Huong, Tr. T.; Huong, D. T.; Long, H. N.

    2006-09-01

    We show that, in frameworks of the economical 3-3-1 model, all fermions get masses. At the tree level, one up-quark and two down-quarks are massless, but the one-loop corrections give all quarks the consistent masses. This conclusion is in contradiction to the previous analysis in which the third scalar triplet has been introduced. This result is based on the key properties of the model: First, there are three quite different scales of vacuum expectation values: {omega}{approx}O(1) TeV, v{approx_equal}246 GeV, and u{approx}O(1) GeV. Second, there exist two types of Yukawa couplings with different strengths: the lepton-number conserving couplings h's and the lepton-number violating ones s's satisfying the condition in which the second are much smaller than the first ones: s<model, masses of the exotic quarks also have different scales, namely, the U exotic quark (q{sub U}=2/3) gains mass m{sub U}{approx_equal}700 GeV, while the D{sub {alpha}} exotic quarks (q{sub D{sub {alpha}}}=-1/3) have masses in the TeV scale: m{sub D{sub {alpha}}}(set-membership sign)10-80 TeV.

  16. A noticeable difference? Productivity costs related to paid and unpaid work in economic evaluations on expensive drugs.

    PubMed

    Krol, Marieke; Papenburg, Jocé; Tan, Siok Swan; Brouwer, Werner; Hakkaart, Leona

    2016-05-01

    Productivity costs can strongly impact cost-effectiveness outcomes. This study investigated the impact in the context of expensive hospital drugs. This study aimed to: (1) investigate the effect of productivity costs on cost-effectiveness outcomes, (2) determine whether economic evaluations of expensive drugs commonly include productivity costs related to paid and unpaid work, and (3) explore potential reasons for excluding productivity costs from the economic evaluation. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify economic evaluations of 33 expensive drugs. We analysed whether evaluations included productivity costs and whether inclusion or exclusion was related to the study population's age, health and national health economic guidelines. The impact on cost-effectiveness outcomes was assessed in studies that included productivity costs. Of 249 identified economic evaluations of expensive drugs, 22 (9 %) included productivity costs related to paid work. One study included unpaid productivity. Mostly, productivity cost exclusion could not be explained by the study population's age and health status, but national guidelines appeared influential. Productivity costs proved often highly influential. This study indicates that productivity costs in economic evaluations of expensive hospital drugs are commonly and inconsistently ignored in economic evaluations. This warrants caution in interpreting and comparing the results of these evaluations.

  17. Economics of recombinant antibody production processes at various scales: Industry-standard compared to continuous precipitation.

    PubMed

    Hammerschmidt, Nikolaus; Tscheliessnig, Anne; Sommer, Ralf; Helk, Bernhard; Jungbauer, Alois

    2014-06-01

    Standard industry processes for recombinant antibody production employ protein A affinity chromatography in combination with other chromatography steps and ultra-/diafiltration. This study compares a generic antibody production process with a recently developed purification process based on a series of selective precipitation steps. The new process makes two of the usual three chromatographic steps obsolete and can be performed in a continuous fashion. Cost of Goods (CoGs) analyses were done for: (i) a generic chromatography-based antibody standard purification; (ii) the continuous precipitation-based purification process coupled to a continuous perfusion production system; and (iii) a hybrid process, coupling the continuous purification process to an upstream batch process. The results of this economic analysis show that the precipitation-based process offers cost reductions at all stages of the life cycle of a therapeutic antibody, (i.e. clinical phase I, II and III, as well as full commercial production). The savings in clinical phase production are largely attributed to the fact that expensive chromatographic resins are omitted. These economic analyses will help to determine the strategies that are best suited for small-scale production in parallel fashion, which is of importance for antibody production in non-privileged countries and for personalized medicine.

  18. Biofuel production system with operation flexibility: Evaluation of economic and environmental performance under external disturbance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kou, Nannan

    Biomass derived liquid hydrocarbon fuel (biofuel) has been accepted as an effective way to mitigate the reliance on petroleum and reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. An increasing demand for second generation biofuels, produced from ligno-cellulosic feedstock and compatible with current infrastructure and vehicle technologies, addresses two major challenges faced by the current US transportation sector: energy security and global warming. However, biofuel production is subject to internal disturbances (feedstock supply and commodity market) and external factors (energy market). The biofuel industry has also heavily relied on government subsidy during the early development stages. In this dissertation, I investigate how to improve the economic and environmental performance of biorefineries (and biofuel plant), as well as enhance its survivability under the external disturbances. Three types of disturbance are considered: (1) energy market fluctuation, (2) subsidy policy uncertainty, and (3) extreme weather conditions. All three factors are basically volatile, dynamic, and even unpredictable, which makes them difficult to model and have been largely ignored to date. Instead, biofuel industry and biofuel research are intensively focused on improving feedstock conversion efficiency and capital cost efficiency while assuming these advancements alone will successfully generate higher profit and thus foster the biofuel industry. The collapse of the largest corn ethanol biofuel company, Verasun Energy, in 2008 calls into question this efficiency-driven approach. A detailed analysis has revealed that although the corn ethanol plants operated by Verasun adopted the more efficient (i.e. higher ethanol yield per bushel of corn and lower capital cost) dry-mill technology, they could not maintain a fair profit margin under fluctuating market condition which made ethanol production unprofitable. This is because dry-mill plant converts a single type of biomass feedstock (corn

  19. Techno-economical study of biogas production improved by steam explosion pretreatment.

    PubMed

    Shafiei, Marzieh; Kabir, Maryam M; Zilouei, Hamid; Sárvári Horváth, Ilona; Karimi, Keikhosro

    2013-11-01

    Economic feasibility of steam explosion pretreatment for improvement of biogas production from wheat straw and paper tube residuals was investigated. The process was simulated by Aspen plus ®, and the economical feasibility of five different plant capacities was studied by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Total project investment of a plant using paper tube residuals or wheat straw was 63.9 or 61.8 million Euros, respectively. The manufacturing cost of raw biogas for these two feedstocks was calculated to 0.36 or 0.48 €/m(3) of methane, respectively. Applying steam explosion pretreatment resulted in 13% higher total capital investment while significantly improved the economy of the biogas plant and decreased the manufacturing cost of methane by 36%. The sensitivity analysis showed that 5% improvement in the methane yield and 20% decrease in the raw material price resulted in 5.5% and 8% decrease in the manufacturing cost of methane, respectively.

  20. Techno-economic analysis of advanced biofuel production based on bio-oil gasification.

    PubMed

    Li, Qi; Zhang, Yanan; Hu, Guiping

    2015-09-01

    This paper evaluates the economic feasibility of an integrated production pathway combining fast pyrolysis and bio-oil gasification. The conversion process is simulated with Aspen Plus® for a 2000 metric ton per day facility. Techno-economic analysis of this integrated pathway has been conducted. A total capital investment of $510 million has been estimated and the minimum fuel selling price (MSP) is $5.59 per gallon of gasoline equivalent. The sensitivity analysis shows that the MSP is most sensitive to internal rate of return, fuel yield, biomass feedstock cost, and fixed capital investment. Monte-Carlo simulation shows that MSP for bio-oil gasification would be more than $6/gal with a probability of 0.24, which indicates this pathway is still at high risk with current economic and technical situation.

  1. Local and Regional Economic Benefits from Forest Products Production Activities at the Savannah River Site: 1955-Present

    SciTech Connect

    Teeter, L.; Blake, J.I.

    2002-01-01

    SRS was established in 1951 as a nuclear materials production facility; however, decline in the defense mission budget at SRS has created a major economic impact on the community in the Central Savannah River Area. SRS has been offsetting these effects by producing revenue (80 million dollars to date) from the sale of forest products since 1955 primarily trees, but also pine straw. Revenue has been re-invested into the infrastructure development, restoration and management of natural resources. Total asset value of the forest-land has increased from 21 million to over 500 million dollars in the same period.

  2. An economic and ecological perspective of ethanol production from renewable agro waste: a review

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Agro-industrial wastes are generated during the industrial processing of agricultural products. These wastes are generated in large amounts throughout the year, and are the most abundant renewable resources on earth. Due to the large availability and composition rich in compounds that could be used in other processes, there is a great interest on the reuse of these wastes, both from economical and environmental view points. The economic aspect is based on the fact that such wastes may be used as low-cost raw materials for the production of other value-added compounds, with the expectancy of reducing the production costs. The environmental concern is because most of the agro-industrial wastes contain phenolic compounds and/or other compounds of toxic potential; which may cause deterioration of the environment when the waste is discharged to the nature. Although the production of bioethanol offers many benefits, more research is needed in the aspects like feedstock preparation, fermentation technology modification, etc., to make bioethanol more economically viable. PMID:23217124

  3. Current Challenges in Health Economic Modeling of Cancer Therapies: A Research Inquiry

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Jeffrey D.; Foley, Kathleen A.; Russell, Mason W.

    2014-01-01

    Background The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. Objectives We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Methods Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. Discussion There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented

  4. The economics of bootstrapping space industries - Development of an analytic computer model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldberg, A. H.; Criswell, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    A simple economic model of 'bootstrapping' industrial growth in space and on the Moon is presented. An initial space manufacturing facility (SMF) is assumed to consume lunar materials to enlarge the productive capacity in space. After reaching a predetermined throughput, the enlarged SMF is devoted to products which generate revenue continuously in proportion to the accumulated output mass (such as space solar power stations). Present discounted value and physical estimates for the general factors of production (transport, capital efficiency, labor, etc.) are combined to explore optimum growth in terms of maximized discounted revenues. It is found that 'bootstrapping' reduces the fractional cost to a space industry of transport off-Earth, permits more efficient use of a given transport fleet. It is concluded that more attention should be given to structuring 'bootstrapping' scenarios in which 'learning while doing' can be more fully incorporated in program analysis.

  5. Commercial Plant Production and Consumption Still Follow the Latitudinal Gradient in Species Diversity despite Economic Globalization

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Erik J.; Helmus, Matthew R.; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Polasky, Stephen; Lasky, Jesse R.; Zanne, Amy E.; Pearse, William D.; Kraft, Nathan J. B.; Miteva, Daniela A.; Fagan, William F.

    2016-01-01

    Increasing trade between countries and gains in income have given consumers around the world access to a richer and more diverse set of commercial plant products (i.e., foods and fibers produced by farmers). According to the economic theory of comparative advantage, countries open to trade will be able to consume more–in terms of volume and diversity–if they concentrate production on commodities that they can most cost-effectively produce, while importing goods that are expensive to produce, relative to other countries. Here, we perform a global analysis of traded commercial plant products and find little evidence that increasing globalization has incentivized agricultural specialization. Instead, a country’s plant production and consumption patterns are still largely determined by local evolutionary legacies of plant diversification. Because tropical countries harbor a greater diversity of lineages across the tree of life than temperate countries, tropical countries produce and consume a greater diversity of plant products than do temperate countries. In contrast, the richer and more economically advanced temperate countries have the capacity to produce and consume more plant species than the generally poorer tropical countries, yet this collection of plant species is drawn from fewer branches on the tree of life. Why have countries not increasingly specialized in plant production despite the theoretical financial incentive to do so? Potential explanations include the persistence of domestic agricultural subsidies that distort production decisions, cultural preferences for diverse local food production, and that diverse food production protects rural households in developing countries from food price shocks. Less specialized production patterns will make crop systems more resilient to zonal climatic and social perturbations, but this may come at the expense of global crop production efficiency, an important step in making the transition to a hotter and more

  6. Commercial Plant Production and Consumption Still Follow the Latitudinal Gradient in Species Diversity despite Economic Globalization.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Erik J; Helmus, Matthew R; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Polasky, Stephen; Lasky, Jesse R; Zanne, Amy E; Pearse, William D; Kraft, Nathan J B; Miteva, Daniela A; Fagan, William F

    2016-01-01

    Increasing trade between countries and gains in income have given consumers around the world access to a richer and more diverse set of commercial plant products (i.e., foods and fibers produced by farmers). According to the economic theory of comparative advantage, countries open to trade will be able to consume more-in terms of volume and diversity-if they concentrate production on commodities that they can most cost-effectively produce, while importing goods that are expensive to produce, relative to other countries. Here, we perform a global analysis of traded commercial plant products and find little evidence that increasing globalization has incentivized agricultural specialization. Instead, a country's plant production and consumption patterns are still largely determined by local evolutionary legacies of plant diversification. Because tropical countries harbor a greater diversity of lineages across the tree of life than temperate countries, tropical countries produce and consume a greater diversity of plant products than do temperate countries. In contrast, the richer and more economically advanced temperate countries have the capacity to produce and consume more plant species than the generally poorer tropical countries, yet this collection of plant species is drawn from fewer branches on the tree of life. Why have countries not increasingly specialized in plant production despite the theoretical financial incentive to do so? Potential explanations include the persistence of domestic agricultural subsidies that distort production decisions, cultural preferences for diverse local food production, and that diverse food production protects rural households in developing countries from food price shocks. Less specialized production patterns will make crop systems more resilient to zonal climatic and social perturbations, but this may come at the expense of global crop production efficiency, an important step in making the transition to a hotter and more

  7. The environmental and economic impact of removing growth-enhancing technologies from U.S. beef production.

    PubMed

    Capper, J L; Hayes, D J

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to quantify the environmental and economic impact of withdrawing growth-enhancing technologies (GET) from the U.S. beef production system. A deterministic model based on the metabolism and nutrient requirements of the beef population was used to quantify resource inputs and waste outputs per 454 × 10(6) kg of beef. Two production systems were compared: one using GET (steroid implants, in-feed ionophores, in-feed hormones, and beta-adrenergic agonists) where approved by FDA at current adoption rates and the other without GET use. Both systems were modeled using characteristic management practices, population dynamics, and production data from U.S. beef systems. The economic impact and global trade and carbon implications of GET withdrawal were calculated based on feed savings. Withdrawing GET from U.S. beef production reduced productivity (growth rate and slaughter weight) and increased the population size required to produce 454 × 10(6) kg beef by 385 × 10(3) animals. Feedstuff and land use were increased by 2,830 × 10(3) t and 265 × 10(3) ha, respectively, by GET withdrawal, with 20,139 × 10(6) more liters of water being required to maintain beef production. Manure output increased by 1,799 × 10(3) t as a result of GET withdrawal, with an increase in carbon emissions of 714,515 t/454 × 10(6) kg beef. The projected increased costs of U.S. beef produced without GET resulted in the effective implementation of an 8.2% tax on beef production, leading to reduced global trade and competitiveness. To compensate for the increase in U.S. beef prices and maintain beef supply, it would be necessary to increase beef production in other global regions, with a projected increase in carbon emissions from deforestation, particularly in Brazil. Withdrawing GET from U.S. beef production would reduce both the economic and environmental sustainability of the industry.

  8. Estimation of economic values for traits of dairy sheep: I. Model development.

    PubMed

    Wolfová, M; Wolf, J; Krupová, Z; Kica, J

    2009-05-01

    A bioeconomic model was developed to estimate effects of change in production and functional traits on profit of dairy or dual-purpose milked sheep under alternative management systems. The flock structure was described in terms of animal categories and probabilities of transitions among them, and a Markov chain approach was used to calculate the stationary state of the resultant ewe flock. The model included both deterministic and stochastic components. Performance for most traits was simulated as the population average, but variation in several traits was taken into account. Management options included lambing intervals, mating system, and culling strategy for ewes, weaning and marketing strategy for progeny, and feeding system. The present value of profit computed as the difference between total revenues and total costs per ewe per year, both discounted to the birth date of the animals, was used as the criterion for economic efficiency of the production system in the stationary state. Economic values (change in system profit per unit change in the trait) of up to 35 milk production, growth, carcass, wool, and functional traits may be estimated.

  9. Techno-Economic Analysis of Liquid Fuel Production from Woody Biomass via Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) and Upgrading

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu, Yunhua; Biddy, Mary J.; Jones, Susanne B.; Elliott, Douglas C.; Schmidt, Andrew J.

    2014-09-15

    A series of experimental work was conducted to convert woody biomass to gasoline and diesel range products via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and catalytic hydroprocessing. Based on the best available test data, a techno-economic analysis (TEA) was developed for a large scale woody biomass based HTL and upgrading system to evaluate the feasibility of this technology. In this system, 2000 dry metric ton per day woody biomass was assumed to be converted to bio-oil in hot compressed water and the bio-oil was hydrotreated and/or hydrocracked to produce gasoline and diesel range liquid fuel. Two cases were evaluated: a stage-of-technology (SOT) case based on the tests results, and a goal case considering potential improvements based on the SOT case. Process simulation models were developed and cost analysis was implemented based on the performance results. The major performance results included final products and co-products yields, raw materials consumption, carbon efficiency, and energy efficiency. The overall efficiency (higher heating value basis) was 52% for the SOT case and 66% for the goal case. The production cost, with a 10% internal rate of return and 2007 constant dollars, was estimated to be $1.29 /L for the SOT case and $0.74 /L for the goal case. The cost impacts of major improvements for moving from the SOT to the goal case were evaluated and the assumption of reducing the organics loss to the water phase lead to the biggest reduction in the production cost. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the final products yields had the largest impact on the production cost compared to other parameters. Plant size analysis demonstrated that the process was economically attractive if the woody biomass feed rate was over 1,500 dry tonne/day, the production cost was competitive with the then current petroleum-based gasoline price.

  10. Techno-economic evaluation of a combined bioprocess for fermentative hydrogen production from food waste.

    PubMed

    Han, Wei; Fang, Jun; Liu, Zhixiang; Tang, Junhong

    2016-02-01

    In this study, the techno-economic evaluation of a combined bioprocess based on solid state fermentation for fermentative hydrogen production from food waste was carried out. The hydrogen production plant was assumed to be built in Hangzhou and designed for converting 3 ton food waste per day into hydrogen. The total capital cost (TCC) and the annual production cost (APC) were US$583092 and US$88298.1/year, respectively. The overall revenue after the tax was US$146473.6/year. The return on investment (ROI), payback period (PBP) and internal rate of return (IRR) of the plant were 26.75%, 5 years and 24.07%, respectively. The results exhibited that the combined bioprocess for hydrogen production from food waste was feasible. This is an important study for attracting investment and industrialization interest for hydrogen production from food waste in the industrial scale.

  11. An economic assessment of astaxanthin production by large scale cultivation of Haematococcus pluvialis.

    PubMed

    Li, Jian; Zhu, Daling; Niu, Jianfeng; Shen, Songdong; Wang, Guangce

    2011-01-01

    Although natural sources have long been exploited for astaxanthin production, it is still uncertain if natural astaxanthin can be produced at lower cost than that of synthetic astaxanthin or not. In order to give a comprehensive cost analysis of astaxanthin production from Haematococcus, a pilot plant with two large scale outdoor photobioreactors and a raceway pond was established and operated for 2 years to develop processes for astaxanthin production from Haematococcus. The developed processes were scaled up to a hypothetical plant with a production capacity about 900 kg astaxanthin per year, and the process economics was preliminarily assessed. Based on the analysis, the production cost of astaxanthin and microalgae biomass can be as low as $718/kg and $18/kg respectively. The results are very encouraging because the estimated cost might be lower than that of chemically synthesized astaxanthin.

  12. The Productivity Factor. Comparing Japanese and American Modes of Production. A Resource for Teachers of Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Copley, Paul

    Focusing on the human element through a cross-cultural comparison of U.S. and Japanese modes of production, this resource guide features an assessment of the major factors that affect productivity performance. Each section contains a goal statement and an overview outline of the featured topics. The text includes primary sources, such as documents…

  13. Public sector administration of ecological economics systems using mediated modeling.

    PubMed

    van den Belt, Marjan; Kenyan, Jennifer R; Krueger, Elizabeth; Maynard, Alison; Roy, Matthew Galen; Raphael, Ian

    2010-01-01

    In today's climate of government outsourcing and multiple stakeholder involvement in public sector management and service delivery, it is more important than ever to rethink and redesign the structure of how policy decisions are made, implemented, monitored, and adapted to new realities. The traditional command-and-control approach is now less effective because an increasing amount of responsibility to deliver public goods and services falls on networks of nongovernment agencies. Even though public administrators are seeking new decision-making models in an increasingly more complex environment, the public sector currently only sparsely utilizes Mediated Modeling (MM). There is growing evidence, however, that by employing MM and similar tools, public interest networks can be better equipped to deal with their long-term viability while maintaining the short-term needs of their clients. However, it may require a shift in organizational culture within and between organizations to achieve the desired results. This paper explores the successes and barriers to implementing MM and similar tools in the public sector and offers insights into utilizing them through a review of case studies and interdisciplinary literature. We aim to raise a broader interest in MM and similar tools among public sector administrators at various administrative levels. We focus primarily, but not exclusively, on those cases operating at the interface of ecology and socio-economic systems.

  14. Climate Impact and Economic Feasibility of Solar Thermochemical Jet Fuel Production.

    PubMed

    Falter, Christoph; Batteiger, Valentin; Sizmann, Andreas

    2016-01-05

    Solar thermochemistry presents a promising option for the efficient conversion of H2O and CO2 into liquid hydrocarbon fuels using concentrated solar energy. To explore the potential of this fuel production pathway, the climate impact and economic performance are analyzed. Key drivers for the economic and ecological performance are thermochemical energy conversion efficiency, the level of solar irradiation, operation and maintenance, and the initial investment in the fuel production plant. For the baseline case of a solar tower concentrator with CO2 capture from air, jet fuel production costs of 2.23 €/L and life cycle greenhouse gas (LC GHG) emissions of 0.49 kgCO2-equiv/L are estimated. Capturing CO2 from a natural gas combined cycle power plant instead of the air reduces the production costs by 15% but leads to LC GHG emissions higher than that of conventional jet fuel. Favorable assumptions for all involved process steps (30% thermochemical energy conversion efficiency, 3000 kWh/(m(2) a) solar irradiation, low CO2 and heliostat costs) result in jet fuel production costs of 1.28 €/L at LC GHG emissions close to zero. Even lower production costs may be achieved if the commercial value of oxygen as a byproduct is considered.

  15. Cleaner production in the ammonia-soda industry: an ecological and economic study.

    PubMed

    Kasikowski, T; Buczkowski, R; Lemanowska, E

    2004-12-01

    Five methods to reduce the negative influence of soda ash factories on the natural environment are presented: 1. obtaining calcium-magnesium phosphates by treating the suspension from raw brine purification with orthophosphoric acid (H(3)PO(4)), 2. production of precipitated chalk from soda processing waste, 3. production of gypsum and semi-brine, 4. desulphurisation of fume gases from the factory power plant, 5. utilization of distiller waste. The tests, accomplished on a laboratory scale, showed the high efficiency of these methods. Economic analysis has proved that only four out of the five presented processes can have a positive financial effect on soda ash factories, as well as being well justified economically. The value of two of the innovations presented is confirmed by their implementation in factories.

  16. Economic analysis for utilization of geothermal energy by North Dakota Concrete Products Co.

    SciTech Connect

    Zink, L.L.

    1982-02-01

    North Dakota Concrete Products Company uses a steam curing process that accelerates the concrete curing so that 28-day strength is obtained within 24 hours. The cost of energy required to accomplish this is significant, amounting to approximately $80,000 in 1980. The present boilers are oil fired. Recently, fuel oil prices have increased substantially. Further, supply shortages in the past have threatened plant production. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the economic feasibility of using deep formation warm water as an alternative energy source. A water-to-water heat pump system to replace the existing boiler system was investigated. TPI, Inc. economic and engineering findings for this particular potential geothermal application are disclosed. The operating cost savings of the geothermal system over the operating costs of the existing oilfired system would be insufficient to provide an acceptable rate of return on the investment at todays cost of money.

  17. Quantity and economic importance of nine selected by-products used in California dairy rations.

    PubMed

    Grasser, L A; Fadel, J G; Garnett, I; DePeters, E J

    1995-04-01

    Food processing representatives, brokers, nutritionists, livestock producers, and trade associations were surveyed to quantify 9 by-products used for feeding livestock during 1992 in California. The commodities were almond hulls, dried beet pulp, wet brewers grains, wet citrus pulp, pressed citrus pulp, wet corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, whole cottonseed, and rice bran. The 9 by-products contributed over 2.5 million tonnes and about 27% of the total feed concentrate moved within California during 1992. Market value of these 9 by-products was almost .25 billion dollars. Whole cottonseed accounted for about 31% of the total tonnage of these 9 by-products and provided about 66% of the total CP and 53% of the total NEL of these 9 by-products. The by-products were more valuable as energy sources than CP sources compared with NEL from corn and CP from soybean meal, respectively. Calculations of milk production, based on the CP content or NEL content of the by-products, showed that these 9 by-products could have contributed sufficient CP or NEL for over 31% of the milk produced in California during 1992. Ration formulations demonstrated that the economic value of by-products changed with feedstuffs available and, in general, would be used in rations over a range of market prices.

  18. Increasing Feedstock Production for Biofuels: Economic Drivers, Environmental Implications, and the Role of Research

    SciTech Connect

    none,

    2009-10-27

    The Biomass Research and Development Board (Board) commissioned an economic analysis of feedstocks to produce biofuels. The Board seeks to inform investments in research and development needed to expand biofuel production. This analysis focuses on feedstocks; other interagency teams have projects underway for other parts of the biofuel sector (e.g., logistics). The analysis encompasses feedstocks for both conventional and advanced biofuels from agriculture and forestry sources.

  19. Ethanol production in southwestern New York: technical and economic feasibility. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-01-01

    Based upon the analysis conducted for this study, the development of centralized ethanol conversion facilities in the Steuben and Allegany Counties is likely to be commercially feasible if either locally produced cheese whey and/or imported corn are used as feedstocks. Development is shown to be profitable under a broad range of potential economic conditions and technical considerations. Four plant designs varying in annual production capacity from 1.675 to 27.5 million gallons of ethanol (and utilizing alternative conversion technologies and feedstocks) are investigated. In general, all of the various plant sizes investigated are economically viable. Although economic profitability is enhanced by the existence of federal subsidies, in the form of $0.40 per gallon from federal gasoline tax rebates, energy investment tax credits and low interest loans, a public subsidy is not necessary, under most conditions, to ensure the economic feasibility of any of the plant design investigated. In all cases, a by-product in the form of an animal feed is produced, thereby generating additional revenue for the conversion facility and adding to the likelihood of commercial feasibility. In the case of the corn/whey plant, the by-product takes the form of a distillers dried grain. In the case of the whey plants, it takes the form of a high mineral, medium protein feed supplement for low and moderate producing dairy cattle. Both have a ready market in the study region. Fermenting of deproteinized whey to produce ethanol and drying the resulting distillation slops for animal feed completely utilizes the original cheese whey. The techniques developed in this study produce three valuable products and leave no residual requiring disposal.

  20. An economical device for carbon supplement in large-scale micro-algae production.

    PubMed

    Su, Zhenfeng; Kang, Ruijuan; Shi, Shaoyuan; Cong, Wei; Cai, Zhaoling

    2008-10-01

    One simple but efficient carbon-supplying device was designed and developed, and the correlative carbon-supplying technology was described. The absorbing characterization of this device was studied. The carbon-supplying system proved to be economical for large-scale cultivation of Spirulina sp. in an outdoor raceway pond, and the gaseous carbon dioxide absorptivity was enhanced above 78%, which could reduce the production cost greatly.

  1. Economic feasibility of products from inland west small-diameter timber. Forest Service general technical report

    SciTech Connect

    Spelter, H.; Wang, R.; Ince, P.

    1996-05-01

    A large part of the forests located in the Rocky Mountain region of the U.S. West (inland West) is characterized by densely packed, small-diameter stands. The purpose of this study was to examine the economic feasibility of using small-diameter material from this resource to manufacture various wood products: oriented strandboard (OSB), stud lumber, random-length dimension lumber, machine-stress-rated random-length lumber, laminated veneer lumber (LVL), and market pulp.

  2. MODELING JOINT PRODUCTION OF WILDLIFE AND TIMBER

    EPA Science Inventory

    Production of marketed commodities and protection of natural systems often conflict. A
    focus on only one goal can result in large losses in other goals and may result in inefficient and
    unsustainable outcomes. In this paper we develop a method that combines economic and
    ...

  3. Current technologies, economics, and perspectives for 2,5-dimethylfuran production from biomass-derived intermediates.

    PubMed

    Saha, Basudeb; Abu-Omar, Mahdi M

    2015-04-13

    Since the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a perspective article that described the potential of the top ten biomass-derived platform chemicals as petroleum replacements for high-value commodity and specialty chemicals, researchers around the world have been motivated to develop technologies for the conversion of biomass and biomass-derived intermediates into chemicals and fuels. Among several biorefinery processes, the conversion of biomass carbohydrates into 2,5-dimethylfuran (DMF) has received significant attention because of its low oxygen content, high energy content, and high octane value. DMF can further serve as a petroleum-replacement, biorenewable feedstock for the production of p-xylene (pX). In this review, we aim specifically to present a concise and up-to-date analysis of DMF production technologies with a critical discussion on catalytic systems, mechanistic insight, and process economics, which includes sensitivity analysis, so that more effective catalysts can be designed. Special emphasis has been given to bifunctional catalysts that improve DMF yields and selectivity and the synergistic effect of the bifunctional sites. Process economics for the current processes and the scope for further improvement are discussed. It is anticipated that the chemistry detailed in this review will guide researchers to develop more practical catalytic processes to enable the economic production of bio-based DMF. Processes for the upgrade of DMF to pX are also described.

  4. A hydro-economic modelling framework for optimal management of groundwater nitrate pollution from agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peña-Haro, Salvador; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Sahuquillo, Andrés

    2009-06-01

    SummaryA hydro-economic modelling framework is developed for determining optimal management of groundwater nitrate pollution from agriculture. A holistic optimization model determines the spatial and temporal fertilizer application rate that maximizes the net benefits in agriculture constrained by the quality requirements in groundwater at various control sites. Since emissions (nitrogen loading rates) are what can be controlled, but the concentrations are the policy targets, we need to relate both. Agronomic simulations are used to obtain the nitrate leached, while numerical groundwater flow and solute transport simulation models were used to develop unit source solutions that were assembled into a pollutant concentration response matrix. The integration of the response matrix in the constraints of the management model allows simulating by superposition the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentration over time at different points of interest throughout the aquifer resulting from multiple pollutant sources distributed over time and space. In this way, the modelling framework relates the fertilizer loads with the nitrate concentration at the control sites. The benefits in agriculture were determined through crop prices and crop production functions. This research aims to contribute to the ongoing policy process in the Europe Union (the Water Framework Directive) providing a tool for analyzing the opportunity cost of measures for reducing nitrogen loadings and assessing their effectiveness for maintaining groundwater nitrate concentration within the target levels. The management model was applied to a hypothetical groundwater system. Optimal solutions of fertilizer use to problems with different initial conditions, planning horizons, and recovery times were determined. The illustrative example shows the importance of the location of the pollution sources in relation to the control sites, and how both the selected planning horizon and the target recovery time can

  5. Economic tools for realization of methane production project on Kuzbass coal deposits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharf, I.; Sokolova, M.; Kochetkova, O.; Dmitrieva, N.

    2016-09-01

    Environmental issues and, above all, issues related to the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, such as coal bed methane, actualize the challenge of searching a variety of options for its disposal. The difference in the macroeconomic, industrial, geological and infrastructural features determine the need to choose the most cost-effective option for using of methane emitted from the coal deposits. Various economic ways to improve the profitability of production are viewed on the basis of the analysis of methane production project from Kuzbass coal deposits, Kemerovo region, Russia.

  6. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    PubMed

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

  7. A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

    PubMed Central

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  8. A Simple Model of Entrepreneurship for Principles of Economics Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gunter, Frank R.

    2012-01-01

    The critical roles of entrepreneurs in creating, operating, and destroying markets, as well as their importance in driving long-term economic growth are still generally either absent from principles of economics texts or relegated to later chapters. The primary difficulties in explaining entrepreneurship at the principles level are the lack of a…

  9. Biofuels and Their Co-Products as Livestock Feed: Global Economic and Environmental Implications.

    PubMed

    Popp, József; Harangi-Rákos, Mónika; Gabnai, Zoltán; Balogh, Péter; Antal, Gabriella; Bai, Attila

    2016-02-29

    This review studies biofuel expansion in terms of competition between conventional and advanced biofuels based on bioenergy potential. Production of advanced biofuels is generally more expensive than current biofuels because products are not yet cost competitive. What is overlooked in the discussion about biofuel is the contribution the industry makes to the global animal feed supply and land use for cultivation of feedstocks. The global ethanol industry produces 44 million metric tonnes of high-quality feed, however, the co-products of biodiesel production have a moderate impact on the feed market contributing to just 8-9 million tonnes of protein meal output a year. By economically displacing traditional feed ingredients co-products from biofuel production are an important and valuable component of the biofuels sector and the global feed market. The return of co-products to the feed market has agricultural land use (and GHG emissions) implications as well. The use of co-products generated from grains and oilseeds can reduce net land use by 11% to 40%. The proportion of global cropland used for biofuels is currently some 2% (30-35 million hectares). By adding co-products substituted for grains and oilseeds the land required for cultivation of feedstocks declines to 1.5% of the global crop area.

  10. Acetone-butanol-ethanol fermentation of corn stover: current production methods, economic viability and commercial use.

    PubMed

    Baral, Nawa R; Slutzky, Lauren; Shah, Ajay; Ezeji, Thaddeus C; Cornish, Katrina; Christy, Ann

    2016-03-01

    Biobutanol is a next-generation liquid biofuel with properties akin to those of gasoline. There is a widespread effort to commercialize biobutanol production from agricultural residues, such as corn stover, which do not compete with human and animal foods. This pursuit is backed by extensive government mandates to expand alternative energy sources. This review provides an overview of research on biobutanol production using corn stover feedstock. Structural composition, pretreatment, sugar yield (following pretreatment and hydrolysis) and generation of lignocellulose-derived microbial inhibitory compounds (LDMICs) from corn stover are discussed. The review also discusses different Clostridium species and strains employed for biobutanol production from corn stover-derived sugars with respect to solvent yields, tolerance to LDMICs and in situ solvent recovery (integrated fermentation). Further, the economics of cellulosic biobutanol production are highlighted and compared to corn starch-derived ethanol and gasoline. As discussed herein, the economic competitiveness of biobutanol production from corn stover largely depends on feedstock processing and fermentation process design.

  11. Techno-economic analysis of bioethanol production from rice straw by liquid-state fermentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hidayata, M. H. M.; Salleh, S. F.; Riayatsyahb, T. M. I.; Aditiyac, H. B.; Mahliaa, T. M. I.; Shamsuddina, A. H.

    2016-03-01

    Renewable energy is the latest approach of the Malaysian government in an effort to find sustainable alternative energy sources and to fulfill the ever increasing energy demand. Being a country that thrives in the service and agricultural sector, bioethanol production from lignocellulosic biomass presents itself as a promising option. However, the lack of technical practicality and complexity in the operation system hinder it from being economically viable. Hence, this research acquired multiple case studies in order to provide an insight on the process involved and its implication on production as well as to obtain a cost analysis of bioethanol production. The energy input and cost of three main components of the bioethanol production which are the collection, logistics, and pretreatment of rice straw were evaluated extensively. The theoretical bioethanol yield and conversion efficiency obtained were 250 L/t and 60% respectively. The findings concluded that bioethanol production from rice straw is currently not economically feasible in Malaysia’s market due to lack of efficiency in the pretreatment phase and overbearing logistics and pretreatment costs. This work could serve as a reference to future studies of biofuel commercialization in Malaysia.

  12. A technical, economic, and environmental analysis of energy production from newspaper in Ireland.

    PubMed

    Murphy, J D; Power, N

    2007-01-01

    The production of newspaper corresponds to 37 kg per person per annum in Ireland. Newspaper becomes a waste product in a short period of time; only 13% of domestic waste paper is recycled (data on newspaper is not available). Four scenarios, which generate energy from newspaper, are analysed. These scenarios may be summarised as follows: lignocellulosic biomass conversion to ethanol (transport fuel); co-digestion with the organic fraction of municipal solid waste and production of CH4-enriched biogas (transport fuel); co-firing with the residue of municipal solid waste in an incinerator; and gasification of newspaper as a sole fuel. Two of the scenarios involve transport fuel production; two involve the production of electricity and heat. Two of the scenarios involve newspaper as the sole ingredient; two involve co- utilisation of newspaper with another waste stream. Assuming no economic market for heat, then only the transport scenarios have the potential to be economic; indeed the biogas scenario is shown to be extremely competitive generating a potential profit of euro 227/t newspaper. A greenhouse-gas analysis indicates that the biogas scenario generated the best net greenhouse-gas savings. However when a market for heat is available, gasification was shown to be most advantageous.

  13. Coupled economic-coastline modeling with suckers and free riders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Zachary C.; McNamara, Dylan E.; Smith, Martin D.; Murray, A. Brad.; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya

    2013-06-01

    erosion is a natural trend along most sandy coastlines. Humans often respond to shoreline erosion with beach nourishment to maintain coastal property values. Locally extending the shoreline through nourishment alters alongshore sediment transport and changes shoreline dynamics in adjacent coastal regions. If left unmanaged, sandy coastlines can have spatially complex or simple patterns of erosion due to the relationship of large-scale morphology and the local wave climate. Using a numerical model that simulates spatially decentralized and locally optimal nourishment decisions characteristic of much of U.S. East Coast beach management, we find that human erosion intervention does not simply reflect the alongshore erosion pattern. Spatial interactions generate feedbacks in economic and physical variables that lead to widespread emergence of "free riders" and "suckers" with subsequent inequality in the alongshore distribution of property value. Along cuspate coastlines, such as those found along the U.S. Southeast Coast, these long-term property value differences span an order of magnitude. Results imply that spatially decentralized management of nourishment can lead to property values that are divorced from spatial erosion signals; this management approach is unlikely to be optimal.

  14. Biohydrogen production from waste bread in a continuous stirred tank reactor: A techno-economic analysis.

    PubMed

    Han, Wei; Hu, Yun Yi; Li, Shi Yi; Li, Fei Fei; Tang, Jun Hong

    2016-12-01

    Biohydrogen production from waste bread in a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) was techno-economically assessed. The treating capacity of the H2-producing plant was assumed to be 2 ton waste bread per day with lifetime of 10years. Aspen Plus was used to simulate the mass and energy balance of the plant. The total capital investment (TCI), total annual production cost (TAPC) and annual revenue of the plant were USD931020, USD299746/year and USD639920/year, respectively. The unit hydrogen production cost was USD1.34/m(3) H2 (or USD14.89/kg H2). The payback period and net present value (NPV) of the plant were 4.8years and USD1266654, respectively. Hydrogen price and operators cost were the most important variables on the NPV. It was concluded that biohydrogen production from waste bread in the CSTR was feasible for practical application.

  15. Converting citrus wastes into value-added products: Economic and environmently friendly approaches.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Kavita; Mahato, Neelima; Cho, Moo Hwan; Lee, Yong Rok

    2017-02-01

    Citrus fruits, including oranges, grapefruits, lemons, limes, tangerines, and mandarins, are among the most widely cultivated fruits around the globe. Its production is increasing every year due to rising consumer demand. Citrus-processing industries generate huge amounts of wastes every year, and citrus peel waste alone accounts for almost 50% of the wet fruit mass. Citrus waste is of immense economic value as it contains an abundance of various flavonoids, carotenoids, dietary fiber, sugars, polyphenols, essential oils, and ascorbic acid, as well as considerable amounts of some trace elements. Citrus waste also contains high levels of sugars suitable for fermentation for bioethanol production. However, compounds such as D-limonene must be removed for efficient bioethanol production. The aim of the present article was to review the latest advances in various popular methods of extraction for obtaining value-added products from citrus waste/byproducts and their potential utility as a source of various functional compounds.

  16. Economic evaluation of technology for a new generation biofuel production using wastes.

    PubMed

    Koutinas, Athanasios; Kanellaki, Maria; Bekatorou, Argyro; Kandylis, Panagiotis; Pissaridi, Katerina; Dima, Agapi; Boura, Konstantina; Lappa, Katerina; Tsafrakidou, Panagiota; Stergiou, Panagiota-Yiolanda; Foukis, Athanasios; Gkini, Olga A; Papamichael, Emmanuel M

    2016-01-01

    An economic evaluation of an integrated technology for industrial scale new generation biofuel production using whey, vinasse, and lignocellulosic biomass as raw materials is reported. Anaerobic packed-bed bioreactors were used for organic acids production using initially synthetic media and then wastes. Butyric, lactic and acetic acid were predominately produced from vinasse, whey, and cellulose, respectively. Mass balance was calculated for a 16,000L daily production capacity. Liquid-liquid extraction was applied for recovery of the organic acids using butanol-1 as an effective extraction solvent which serves also as the alcohol for the subsequent enzyme-catalyzed esterification. The investment needed for the installation of the factory was estimated to about 1.7million€ with depreciation excepted at about 3months. For cellulosics, the installation investment was estimated to be about 7-fold higher with depreciation at about 1.5years. The proposed technology is an alternative trend in biofuel production.

  17. Quantifying Forest Ecosystem Services Tradeoff—Coupled Ecological and Economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haff, P. K.; Ling, P. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of the effect of carbon-related forestland management activities on ecosystem services is difficult, because knowledge about the dynamics of coupled social-ecological systems is lacking. Different forestland management activities, such as various amount, timing, and methods of harvesting, and natural disturbances events, such as wind and fires, create shocks and uncertainties to the forest carbon dynamics. A spatially explicit model, Landis-ii, was used to model the forest succession for different harvest management scenarios at the Grandfather District, North Carolina. In addition to harvest, the model takes into account of the impact of natural disturbances, such as fire and insects, and species competition. The result shows the storage of carbon in standing biomass and in wood product for each species for each scenario. In this study, optimization is used to analyze the maximum profit and the number of tree species that each forest landowner can gain at different prices of carbon, roundwood, and interest rates for different harvest management scenarios. Time series of roundwood production of different types were estimated using remote sensing data. Econometric analysis is done to understand the possible interaction and relations between the production of different types of roundwood and roundwood prices, which can indicate the possible planting scheme that a forest owner may make. This study quantifies the tradeoffs between carbon sequestration, roundwood production, and forest species diversity not only from an economic perspective, but also takes into account of the forest succession mechanism in a species-diverse region. The resulting economic impact on the forest landowners is likely to influence their future planting decision, which in turn, will influence the species composition and future revenue of the landowners.

  18. Modeling the Development of Vocational Competence: A Psychometric Model for Economic Domains

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klotz, Viola Katharina; Winther, Esther; Festner, Dagmar

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses the development of vocational competence through economic vocational educational training (VET) from a theoretical and psychometric perspective. Most assessment and competence models tend to adopt a state perspective toward assessments of competence and carve out different structures of competence for diverse vocational…

  19. A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramli, Norashikin; Muda, Nora; Umor, Mohd Rozi

    2014-06-01

    Malaysia is a country which is rich in natural resources and one of it is a gold. Gold has already become an important national commodity. This study is conducted to determine a model that can be well fitted with the gold production in Malaysia from the year 1995-2010. Five nonlinear models are presented in this study which are Logistic model, Gompertz, Richard, Weibull and Chapman-Richard model. These model are used to fit the cumulative gold production in Malaysia. The best model is then selected based on the model performance. The performance of the fitted model is measured by sum squares error, root mean squares error, coefficient of determination, mean relative error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. This study has found that a Weibull model is shown to have significantly outperform compare to the other models. To confirm that Weibull is the best model, the latest data are fitted to the model. Once again, Weibull model gives the lowest readings at all types of measurement error. We can concluded that the future gold production in Malaysia can be predicted according to the Weibull model and this could be important findings for Malaysia to plan their economic activities.

  20. Market disruption, cascading effects, and economic recovery:a life-cycle hypothesis model.

    SciTech Connect

    Sprigg, James A.

    2004-11-01

    This paper builds upon previous work [Sprigg and Ehlen, 2004] by introducing a bond market into a model of production and employment. The previous paper described an economy in which households choose whether to enter the labor and product markets based on wages and prices. Firms experiment with prices and employment levels to maximize their profits. We developed agent-based simulations using Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool developed at Sandia, to demonstrate that multiple-firm economies converge toward the competitive equilibria typified by lower prices and higher output and employment, but also suffer from market noise stemming from consumer churn. In this paper we introduce a bond market as a mechanism for household savings. We simulate an economy of continuous overlapping generations in which each household grows older in the course of the simulation and continually revises its target level of savings according to a life-cycle hypothesis. Households can seek employment, earn income, purchase goods, and contribute to savings until they reach the mandatory retirement age; upon retirement households must draw from savings in order to purchase goods. This paper demonstrates the simultaneous convergence of product, labor, and savings markets to their calculated equilibria, and simulates how a disruption to a productive sector will create cascading effects in all markets. Subsequent work will use similar models to simulate how disruptions, such as terrorist attacks, would interplay with consumer confidence to affect financial markets and the broader economy.

  1. A techno-economic model for optimum regeneration of surface mined land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhopadhyay, Manas K.; Sinha, Indra N.

    2006-07-01

    The recent global scenario in the mineral sector may be characterized by rising competitiveness, increasing production costs and a slump in market price. This has pushed the mineral sector in general and that in the developing countries in particular to a situation where the industry has a limited capacity to sustain unproductive costs. This, more often than not, results in a situation where the industry fails to ensure environmental safeguards during and after mineral extraction. The situation is conspicuous in the Indian coal mining industry where more than 73% production comes from surface operations. India has an ambitious power augmentation projection for the coming 10 years. A phenomenal increase in coal production is proposed from the power grade coalfields in India. One of the most likely fall-outs of land degradation due to mining in these areas would be significant reduction of agricultural and other important land-uses. Currently, backfilling costs are perceived as prohibitive and abandonment of land is the easy way out. This study attempts to provide mine planners with a mathematical model that distributes generated overburden at defined disposal options while ensuring maximization of backfilled land area at minimum direct and economic costs. Optimization has been accomplished by linear programming (LP) for optimum distribution of each year’s generated overburden. Previous year’s disposal quantity outputs are processed as one set of the inputs to the LP model for generation of current year’s disposal output. From various geo-mining inputs, site constants of the LP constraints are calculated. Arrived value of economic vectors, which guide the programming statement, decides the optimal overburden distribution in defined options. The case example (with model test run) indicates that overburden distribution is significantly sensitive to coal seam gradient. The model has universal applicability to cyclic system (shovel dumper combination) of opencast

  2. Biomedical Progress Rates as New Parameters for Models of Economic Growth in Developed Countries

    PubMed Central

    Zhavoronkov, Alex; Litovchenko, Maria

    2013-01-01

    While the doubling of life expectancy in developed countries during the 20th century can be attributed mostly to decreases in child mortality, the trillions of dollars spent on biomedical research by governments, foundations and corporations over the past sixty years are also yielding longevity dividends in both working and retired population. Biomedical progress will likely increase the healthy productive lifespan and the number of years of government support in the old age. In this paper we introduce several new parameters that can be applied to established models of economic growth: the biomedical progress rate, the rate of clinical adoption and the rate of change in retirement age. The biomedical progress rate is comprised of the rejuvenation rate (extending the productive lifespan) and the non-rejuvenating rate (extending the lifespan beyond the age at which the net contribution to the economy becomes negative). While staying within the neoclassical economics framework and extending the overlapping generations (OLG) growth model and assumptions from the life cycle theory of saving behavior, we provide an example of the relations between these new parameters in the context of demographics, labor, households and the firm. PMID:24217179

  3. Biomedical progress rates as new parameters for models of economic growth in developed countries.

    PubMed

    Zhavoronkov, Alex; Litovchenko, Maria

    2013-11-08

    While the doubling of life expectancy in developed countries during the 20th century can be attributed mostly to decreases in child mortality, the trillions of dollars spent on biomedical research by governments, foundations and corporations over the past sixty years are also yielding longevity dividends in both working and retired population. Biomedical progress will likely increase the healthy productive lifespan and the number of years of government support in the old age. In this paper we introduce several new parameters that can be applied to established models of economic growth: the biomedical progress rate, the rate of clinical adoption and the rate of change in retirement age. The biomedical progress rate is comprised of the rejuvenation rate (extending the productive lifespan) and the non-rejuvenating rate (extending the lifespan beyond the age at which the net contribution to the economy becomes negative). While staying within the neoclassical economics framework and extending the overlapping generations (OLG) growth model and assumptions from the life cycle theory of saving behavior, we provide an example of the relations between these new parameters in the context of demographics, labor, households and the firm.

  4. Novel technologies for enhanced production of ethanol: impact of high productivity on process economics

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In these studies Saccharomyces cerevisiae NRRL Y-566 was used to produce ethanol from a concentrated glucose (250-300 gL-1) solution. When fermentation media were supplemented with CaCO3 and CaCl2, ethanol concentrations, yield, and productivities were improved significantly. In control batch fermen...

  5. Correcting for compensating mechanisms related to productivity costs in economic evaluations of health care programmes.

    PubMed

    Jacob-Tacken, Karin H M; Koopmanschap, Marc A; Meerding, Willem Jan; Severens, Johan L

    2005-05-01

    In the economic evaluation of health care programmes, productivity costs are often estimated using patients' wages for the period of absence. However, the use of such methods for short periods of absence is controversial. A previous study found that short-term absence is often compensated for during normal working hours and therefore does not lead to productivity losses. As such, the application of any approach almost certainly overestimates productivity costs. In this study, we examined the productivity costs for five different patient populations and one employee population, using the classical method and by identifying when extra effort was needed. In general, the results showed that productivity costs based on identifying extra effort were 25-30% of the classical estimates. For absences of just one day, productivity costs were relevant in only 17-19% of cases. For absences of two weeks or longer, productivity costs were relevant in 35-39% of cases. Measurement of the compensating mechanisms seemed to be valid, since there is considerable agreement between the opinion of supervisors and their employees about whether compensation covers productivity costs. There was much less agreement between supervisors and their employees on specific compensating mechanisms, however. The measurement of compensating mechanisms also seemed to be valid, because--as expected--different compensating mechanisms were reported for different occupations. In our study populations, compensating mechanisms appeared to differ with occupational characteristics, like part-time work, managerial work and shift work.

  6. Sustainability evaluation of Sicily's lemon and orange production: an energy, economic and environmental analysis.

    PubMed

    Pergola, M; D'Amico, M; Celano, G; Palese, A M; Scuderi, A; Di Vita, G; Pappalardo, G; Inglese, P

    2013-10-15

    The island of Sicily has a long standing tradition in citrus growing. We evaluated the sustainability of orange and lemon orchards, under organic and conventional farming, using an energy, environmental and economic analysis of the whole production cycle by using a life cycle assessment approach. These orchard systems differ only in terms of a few of the inputs used and the duration of the various agricultural operations. The quantity of energy consumption in the production cycle was calculated by multiplying the quantity of inputs used by the energy conversion factors drawn from the literature. The production costs were calculated considering all internal costs, including equipment, materials, wages, and costs of working capital. The performance of the two systems (organic and conventional), was compared over a period of fifty years. The results, based on unit surface area (ha) production, prove the stronger sustainability of the organic over the conventional system, both in terms of energy consumption and environmental impact, especially for lemons. The sustainability of organic systems is mainly due to the use of environmentally friendly crop inputs (fertilizers, not use of synthetic products, etc.). In terms of production costs, the conventional management systems were more expensive, and both systems were heavily influenced by wages. In terms of kg of final product, the organic production system showed better environmental and energy performances.

  7. Environmental and economic impacts of decision-making at an arable farm: an integrative modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Lindgren, Urban; Elmquist, Helena

    2005-06-01

    This study examines the dependency between physical and anthropogenic systems in arable farming. The dynamic simulation model, which has its methodological origins in the modeling traditions of environmental systems analysis and microsimulation, reproduces the mutual links between the physical flows (e.g. energy, materials, emissions, and products), the farmer as a decision-making agent, and structural conditions influencing the farm. In running the model, the intention is to answer the question: What are the impacts on profitability and the environment (i.e. greenhouse gas effects, eutrophication, acidification, and energy use) of variations in prices, subsidies, the farmer's environmental values, and the farmer's skill in making production allocation choices? The results of the model simulations indicate, for example, that in terms of economic performance, a farmer can choose between two relatively sustainable strategies--either to specialize in organic production (thereby benefiting from higher subsidies and output prices), or to focus on conventional cultivation and use of pesticides and fertilizers (thereby benefiting from large yields). Regarding environmental impacts, there was no clear-cut divide between organic and conventional farming due to difficulties in allocating the use of manure. This finding is essentially related to the choice of system boundary, which is thoroughly discussed in the paper.

  8. Carbon accounting and economic model uncertainty of emissions from biofuels-induced land use change.

    PubMed

    Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'Hare, Michael

    2015-03-03

    Few of the numerous published studies of the emissions from biofuels-induced "indirect" land use change (ILUC) attempt to propagate and quantify uncertainty, and those that have done so have restricted their analysis to a portion of the modeling systems used. In this study, we pair a global, computable general equilibrium model with a model of greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change to quantify the parametric uncertainty in the paired modeling system's estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from ILUC induced by expanded production of three biofuels. We find that for the three fuel systems examined--US corn ethanol, Brazilian sugar cane ethanol, and US soybean biodiesel--95% of the results occurred within ±20 g CO2e MJ(-1) of the mean (coefficient of variation of 20-45%), with economic model parameters related to crop yield and the productivity of newly converted cropland (from forestry and pasture) contributing most of the variance in estimated ILUC emissions intensity. Although the experiments performed here allow us to characterize parametric uncertainty, changes to the model structure have the potential to shift the mean by tens of grams of CO2e per megajoule and further broaden distributions for ILUC emission intensities.

  9. Techno-economic analysis of biocatalytic processes for production of alkene epoxides.

    PubMed

    Borole, Abhijeet P; Davison, Brian H

    2007-04-01

    A techno-economic analysis of two different bioprocesses was conducted, one for the conversion of propylene to propylene oxide (PO) and other for conversion of styrene to styrene epoxide (SO). The first process was a lipase-mediated chemo-enzymatic reaction, whereas the second one was a one-step enzymatic process using chloroperoxidase. The PO produced through the chemo-enzymatic process is a racemic product, whereas the latter process (based on chloroperoxidase) produces an enantio-pure product. The former process thus falls under the category of high-volume commodity chemical (PO); whereas the latter is a low-volume, high-value product (SO).A simulation of the process was conducted using the bioprocess engineering software SuperPro Designer v6.0 (Intelligen, Inc., Scotch Plains, NJ) to determine the economic feasibility of the process. The purpose of the exercise was to compare biocatalytic processes with existing chemical processes for production of alkene expoxides. The results show that further improvements are needed in improving biocatalyst stability to make these bioprocesses competitive with chemical processes.

  10. Socio-economic aspects of Gum Arabic production in Dalanj area, South Korodofan, Sudan.

    PubMed

    Koli, A O; Eltayeb, A M; Sanjak, E M; Mohammed, M H

    2013-11-01

    Acacia senegal (locally: Hashab tree) is one of the most important tree species in Sudan as it considers the main Gum Arabic producing tree. The objective of this study is to investigate the socio-economic aspects of gum Arabic production and to assess contribution of gum Arabic to sustainable livelihood of local people in Dalanj Locality, South Kordofan State-Sudan. Social survey was carried out by using structured questionnaire for 80 respondents (gum producers) on random sample basis in eight villages, 10 respondents from each village. Issues pertaining to socio-economic factors affecting gum Arabic production and contribution of gum Arabic to sustainable livelihood of local people, in Dalanj Locality, were assessed. Results of the study revealed that expansion of agriculture lands at the expense of hashab trees, fires and illegal felling are the most important factors constraining gum production in the area. The results also indicated that agriculture is the main source of income and gum Arabic is a supplementary source of income. The importance of gum Arabic becomes apparent during (off farm season) the period between crops harvest and the preparation of the next agricultural season. Establishment of producers' associations and provision of loans to producers are highly recommended to ensure sustainability of gum production.

  11. A Techno-Economic Analysis of Emission Controls on Hydrocarbon Biofuel Production

    SciTech Connect

    Bhatt, Arpit; Zhang, Yimin; Davis, Ryan; Eberle, Annika; Heath, Garvin

    2016-06-23

    Biofuels have the potential to reduce our dependency on petroleum-derived transportation fuels and decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Although the overall GHG emissions from biofuels are expected to be lower when compared to those of petroleum fuels, the process of converting biomass feedstocks into biofuels emits various air pollutants, which may be subject to federal air quality regulation or emission limits. While prior research has evaluated the technical and economic feasibility of biofuel technologies, gaps still exist in understanding the regulatory issues associated with the biorefineries and their economic implications on biofuel production costs (referred to as minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) in this study). The aim of our research is to evaluate the economic impact of implementing emission reduction technologies at biorefineries and estimate the cost effectiveness of two primary control technologies that may be required for air permitting purposes. We analyze a lignocellulosic sugars-to-hydrocarbon biofuel production pathway developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and implement air emission controls in Aspen Plus to evaluate how they affect the MFSP. Results from this analysis can help inform decisions about biorefinery siting and sizing, as well as mitigate the risks associated with air permitting.

  12. Energy and economical comparison of possible cultures for a total-integrated on-field biodiesel production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allesina, G.; Pedrazzi, S.; Tebianian, S.; Muscio, A.; Tartarini, P.

    2014-04-01

    This work is aimed at investigating the energy conversion effectiveness and the economical advantages of a total integrated solution for on-field biodiesel and electrical energy production. The system proposed here is based on the synergy of four sub-systems: a seed press for oil production, a downdraft gasifier, a biodiesel conversion plant and a Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC). Two possible culture rotations, suggested by literature review, were analyzed here from economical and energy balance points of view. Both the rotations were composed of oleaginous crops only, therefore the seeds collected from the different cultures were pressed, then the protein cake produced in the process was gasified in the downdraft reactor. The gasification process was modeled here, and its output suggested that, for a precise number of hectares, the syngas obtained through the cake gasification was enough for producing methanol required for oil-biodiesel conversion and feeding a 10-kW SOFC. The purge line in the methanol reactor was used in the SOFC as well. The system was simulated using ASPEN PLUSTM and MATLABTM codes. Results of the SOFC and gasifier models underlined the capability of the fuel cell to work with this particular system, furthermore the whole system analysis suggested that the surface required for sustainability of the processes is a function of the rotation choice. In both cases little surfaces ranging from 11 to 21 hectares were found to be enough for system self-sustainability with a ROI under 7 years in all the operating conditions analyzed.

  13. Bio-hydrogen production by biodiesel-derived crude glycerol bioconversion: a techno-economic evaluation.

    PubMed

    Sarma, Saurabh Jyoti; Brar, Satinder Kaur; Le Bihan, Yann; Buelna, Gerardo

    2013-01-01

    Global biodiesel production is continuously increasing and it is proportionally accompanied by a huge amount of crude glycerol (CG) as by-product. Due to its crude nature, CG has very less commercial interest; although its pure counterpart has different industrial applications. Alternatively, CG is a very good carbon source and can be used as a feedstock for fermentative hydrogen production. Further, a move of this kind has dual benefits, namely it offers a sustainable method for disposal of biodiesel manufacturing waste as well as produces biofuels and contributes in greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction. Two-stage fermentation, comprising dark and photo-fermentation is one of the most promising options available for bio-hydrogen production. In the present study, techno-economic feasibility of such a two-stage process has been evaluated. The analysis has been made based on the recent advances in fermentative hydrogen production using CG as a feedstock. The study has been carried out with special reference to North American biodiesel market; and more specifically, data available for Canadian province, Québec City have been used. Based on our techno-economic analysis, higher production cost was found to be the major bottleneck in commercial production of fermentative hydrogen. However, certain achievable alternative options for reduction of process cost have been identified. Further, the process was found to be capable in reducing GHG emissions. Bioconversion of 1 kg of crude glycerol (70 % w/v) was found to reduce 7.66 kg CO(2) eq (equivalent) GHG emission, and the process also offers additional environmental benefits.

  14. Techno-economic and Fluid Dynamics Analysis for Growing Microalgae with the Intent of Producing Biofuel Using a System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raffaeli, Leah R.

    Techno-economic and systems studies on microalgal growth scenarios to date are abbreviated and missing a number of important variables. By including these variables in a detailed model integrating biology, chemistry, engineering, and financial aspects, a more defined systems analysis is possible. Through optimizing the model productivity based on the resulting net profit, the system analysis results in a more accurate assessment of environmental and economic sustainability of specific algal growth scenarios. Photobioreactor algal growth scenario optimization in the system model has resulted in realistic engineering design requirements based on algal growth requirements and fluid dynamics analysis. Results show feasibility for photobioreactor growth scenarios to be economically sustainable when co-products are included, but definite technological advancements and productivity improvements must be made. The main factors inhibiting a cost effective photobioreactor growth scenario are culture density, temperature, and lighting distribution for solar illuminated photobioreactors, and lighting cost for artificially illuminated photobioreactors. Open pond algal growth scenarios do not show any prospect of economic or environmental sustainability with current technology due to the large amount of surface area required, inefficient water use, and low culture density. All algal growth scenarios are inferior to petro-diesel regarding energy inputs, carbon emissions, and environmental sustainability. No algal growth scenarios analyzed in this study meet the U.S. requirement of biofuel emitting at least 20% less carbon emissions than diesel from crude oil.

  15. Production activities and economic dependency by age and gender in Europe: A cross-country comparison

    PubMed Central

    Hammer, Bernhard; Prskawetz, Alexia; Freund, Inga

    2015-01-01

    We compare selected European countries using an economic dependency ratio which emphasizes the role of age-specific levels of production and consumption. Our analysis reveals large differences in the age- and gender-specific level and type of production activities across selected European countries and identifies possible strategies to adjust age-specific economic behaviour to an ageing population. The cross-country differences in economic dependency of children and elderly persons are largely determined by the age at which people enter, respectively exit, the labour market. The ability of the working age population to support children and elderly persons in turn is strongly influenced by the participation of women in paid work. We also provide a measure for the age-specific production and consumption in form of unpaid household work. The inclusion of unpaid household work leads to a decrease of the gender differences in production activities and indicates that the working age population supports children and elderly persons not only through monetary transfers but also through services produced by unpaid work (e.g. childcare, cooking, cleaning…). Given the available data, we cannot distinguish the age profile of consumption by gender and have to assume – in case of unpaid work - that each member of the household consumes the same. Hence, our results have to be regarded as a first approximation only. Our paper aims to argue that a reform of the welfare system needs to take into account not only public transfers but also private transfers, in particular the transfers in form of goods and services produced through unpaid household work. PMID:26110107

  16. Production activities and economic dependency by age and gender in Europe: A cross-country comparison.

    PubMed

    Hammer, Bernhard; Prskawetz, Alexia; Freund, Inga

    2015-04-01

    We compare selected European countries using an economic dependency ratio which emphasizes the role of age-specific levels of production and consumption. Our analysis reveals large differences in the age- and gender-specific level and type of production activities across selected European countries and identifies possible strategies to adjust age-specific economic behaviour to an ageing population. The cross-country differences in economic dependency of children and elderly persons are largely determined by the age at which people enter, respectively exit, the labour market. The ability of the working age population to support children and elderly persons in turn is strongly influenced by the participation of women in paid work. We also provide a measure for the age-specific production and consumption in form of unpaid household work. The inclusion of unpaid household work leads to a decrease of the gender differences in production activities and indicates that the working age population supports children and elderly persons not only through monetary transfers but also through services produced by unpaid work (e.g. childcare, cooking, cleaning…). Given the available data, we cannot distinguish the age profile of consumption by gender and have to assume - in case of unpaid work - that each member of the household consumes the same. Hence, our results have to be regarded as a first approximation only. Our paper aims to argue that a reform of the welfare system needs to take into account not only public transfers but also private transfers, in particular the transfers in form of goods and services produced through unpaid household work.

  17. Estimation of the economical effects of Eimeria infections in Estonian dairy herds using a stochastic model.

    PubMed

    Lassen, Brian; Ostergaard, Søren

    2012-10-01

    In this study, a stochastic predictive model stimulating a constant infection pressure of Eimeria was used to estimate production outcome, economic, and effects of treatment decisions in a dairy herd of 100 cows. The intestinal parasite cause problems mainly in calves, and is known to have long term effects on the growth rate, and in severe cases can result in mortalities. Due to the inconspicuous nature of the parasite, the clinical signs and sub-clinical manifestations it may produce can be overlooked. Acquired data from literature and Estonian dairy farms were implemented in the SimHerd IV model to simulate three scenarios of symptomatic treatment: no calves treated (NT), default estimate of the current treatment strategy (DT), and all calves treated (AT). Effects of metaphylactic treatment were studied as a lowering of the infection pressure. Delay in the age for beginning of insemination of heifers was the effect with the largest economic impact on the gross margin, followed by calf mortality and reduction in growth rate. Large expenses were associated with the introduction of replacement heifers and feeding of heifers as a result of the delay in reaching a specific body weight at calving. Compared to the control scenarios, with no effects and treatments of Eimeria, dairy farmers were estimated to incur annual losses ranging 8-9% in the balanced income. Providing metaphylactic drugs resulted in an increased gross margin of 6-7%. Purchase of new heifers compensated for some production losses that would otherwise have enhanced expenses related to Eimeria. The simulation illustrates how effects of Eimeria infections can have long lasting impact on interacting management factors. It was concluded that all three simulated symptomatic treatment regimes provided only small economic benefits if they were applied alone and not in combination with lowering of infection pressure.

  18. Energy, economic and environmental implications of production of grasses as biomass feedstocks

    SciTech Connect

    Downing, M.; McLaughlin, S.; Walsh, M.

    1995-08-01

    Perennial prairie grasses offer many advantages to the developing biofuels industry. High yielding varieties of native prairie grasses such as switchgrass, which combine lower levels of nutrient demand, diverse geographical growing range, high net energy yields and high soil and water conservation potential indicate that these grasses could and should supplement annual row crops such as corn in developing alternative fuels markets. Favorable net energy returns, increased soil erosion prevention, and a geographically diverse land base that can incorporate energy grasses into conventional farm practices will provide direct benefits to local and regional farm economies and lead to accelerated commercialization of conversion technologies. Displacement of row crops with perennial grasses will have major agricultural, economic, sociologic and cross-market implications. Thus, perennial grass production for biofuels offers significant economic advantages to a national energy strategy which considers both agricultural and environmental issues.

  19. Full-scale validation of a model of algal productivity.

    PubMed

    Béchet, Quentin; Shilton, Andy; Guieysse, Benoit

    2014-12-02

    While modeling algal productivity outdoors is crucial to assess the economic and environmental performance of full-scale cultivation, most of the models hitherto developed for this purpose have not been validated under fully relevant conditions, especially with regard to temperature variations. The objective of this study was to independently validate a model of algal biomass productivity accounting for both light and temperature and constructed using parameters experimentally derived using short-term indoor experiments. To do this, the accuracy of a model developed for Chlorella vulgaris was assessed against data collected from photobioreactors operated outdoor (New Zealand) over different seasons, years, and operating conditions (temperature-control/no temperature-control, batch, and fed-batch regimes). The model accurately predicted experimental productivities under all conditions tested, yielding an overall accuracy of ±8.4% over 148 days of cultivation. For the purpose of assessing the feasibility of full-scale algal cultivation, the use of the productivity model was therefore shown to markedly reduce uncertainty in cost of biofuel production while also eliminating uncertainties in water demand, a critical element of environmental impact assessments. Simulations at five climatic locations demonstrated that temperature-control in outdoor photobioreactors would require tremendous amounts of energy without considerable increase of algal biomass. Prior assessments neglecting the impact of temperature variations on algal productivity in photobioreactors may therefore be erroneous.

  20. A productivity model for parasitized, multibrooded songbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, L.A.; Knutson, M.G.

    2006-01-01

    We present an enhancement of a simulation model to predict annual productivity for Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and American Redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla); the model includes effects of Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism. We used species-specific data from the Driftless Area Ecoregion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa to parameterize the model as a case study. The simulation model predicted annual productivity of 2.03 ?? 1.60 SD for Wood Thrushes and 1.56 ?? 1.31 SD for American Redstarts. Our sensitivity analysis showed that high parasitism lowered Wood Thrush annual productivity more than American Redstart productivity, even though parasitism affected individual nests of redstarts more severely. Annual productivity predictions are valuable for habitat managers, but productivity is not easily obtained from field studies. Our model provides a useful means of integrating complex life history parameters to predict productivity for songbirds that experience nest parasitism. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

  1. Techno-economics of carbon preserving butanol production using a combined fermentative and catalytic approach.

    PubMed

    Nilsson, Robert; Bauer, Fredric; Mesfun, Sennai; Hulteberg, Christian; Lundgren, Joakim; Wännström, Sune; Rova, Ulrika; Berglund, Kris Arvid

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents a novel process for n-butanol production which combines a fermentation consuming carbon dioxide (succinic acid fermentation) with subsequent catalytic reduction steps to add hydrogen to form butanol. Process simulations in Aspen Plus have been the basis for the techno-economic analyses performed. The overall economy for the novel process cannot be justified, as production of succinic acid by fermentation is too costly. Though, succinic acid price is expected to drop drastically in a near future. By fully integrating the succinic acid fermentation with the catalytic conversion the need for costly recovery operations could be reduced. The hybrid process would need 22% less raw material than the butanol fermentation at a succinic acid fermentation yield of 0.7g/g substrate. Additionally, a carbon dioxide fixation of up to 13ktonnes could be achieved at a plant with an annual butanol production of 10ktonnes.

  2. Economics of sugar production with Trichoderma reesei Rutgers C-30. [Corn stover

    SciTech Connect

    Perez, J.; Wilke, C.R.; Blanch, H.W.

    1980-08-01

    The economics of sugar production from bioconversion of corn stover utilizing cellulase obtained from Trichoderma reesei strain Rutgers C-30 were investigated. The cost of manufacturing sugar is 10.5 cents per pound. This reduced cost is due to cellulase activities ranging from 7 to 14 IU/ml from batch cultures. Hydrolysis can be carried out at substrate concentrations up to 25% and give product streams containing up to 9% sugars. Conversions up to 61% of theoretical have been observed. A sensitivity analysis indicates that sugar can be produced at near competitive prices from corn stover costing $0 to $50 per ton. By utilizing new fermentation technology, sugar at these prices can be used to product 95% alcohol at a cost ranging from $1.80 to $3.00 per gallon.

  3. Green Net Regional Product for the San Luis Basin, Colorado: an economic measure of regional sustainability.

    PubMed

    Heberling, Matthew T; Templeton, Joshua J; Wu, Shanshan

    2012-11-30

    This paper presents the data sources and methodology used to estimate Green Net Regional Product (GNRP), a green accounting approach, for the San Luis Basin (SLB). We measured the movement away from sustainability by examining the change in GNRP over time. Any attempt at green accounting requires both economic and natural capital data. However, limited data for the Basin requires a number of simplifying assumptions and requires transforming economic data at the national, state, and county levels to the level of the SLB. Given the contribution of agribusiness to the SLB, we included the depletion of both groundwater and soil as components in the depreciation of natural capital. We also captured the effect of the consumption of energy on climate change for future generations through carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions. In order to estimate the depreciation of natural capital, the shadow price of water for agriculture, the economic damages from soil erosion due to wind, and the social cost of carbon emissions were obtained from the literature and applied to the SLB using benefit transfer. We used Colorado's total factor productivity for agriculture to estimate the value of time (i.e., to include the effects of exogenous technological progress). We aggregated the economic data and the depreciation of natural capital for the SLB from 1980 to 2005. The results suggest that GNRP had a slight upward trend through most of this time period, despite temporary negative trends, the longest of which occurred during the period 1985-86 to 1987-88. However, given the upward trend in GNRP and the possibility of business cycles causing the temporary declines, there is no definitive evidence of moving away from sustainability.

  4. Multi-scale exploration of the technical, economic, and environmental dimensions of bio-based chemical production.

    PubMed

    Zhuang, Kai H; Herrgård, Markus J

    2015-09-01

    In recent years, bio-based chemicals have gained traction as a sustainable alternative to petrochemicals. However, despite rapid advances in metabolic engineering and synthetic biology, there remain significant economic and environmental challenges. In order to maximize the impact of research investment in a new bio-based chemical industry, there is a need for assessing the technological, economic, and environmental potentials of combinations of biomass feedstocks, biochemical products, bioprocess technologies, and metabolic engineering approaches in the early phase of development of cell factories. To address this issue, we have developed a comprehensive Multi-scale framework for modeling Sustainable Industrial Chemicals production (MuSIC), which integrates modeling approaches for cellular metabolism, bioreactor design, upstream/downstream processes and economic impact assessment. We demonstrate the use of the MuSIC framework in a case study where two major polymer precursors (1,3-propanediol and 3-hydroxypropionic acid) are produced from two biomass feedstocks (corn-based glucose and soy-based glycerol) through 66 proposed biosynthetic pathways in two host organisms (Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae). The MuSIC framework allows exploration of tradeoffs and interactions between economy-scale objectives (e.g. profit maximization, emission minimization), constraints (e.g. land-use constraints) and process- and cell-scale technology choices (e.g. strain design or oxygenation conditions). We demonstrate that economy-scale assessment can be used to guide specific strain design decisions in metabolic engineering, and that these design decisions can be affected by non-intuitive dependencies across multiple scales.

  5. Assessing the economic and environmental feasibility of utility scaled PV electricity production in the state of Georgia.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Ruthie; Critttenden, John

    2012-01-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) technology, an increasingly popular source for renewable energy, is being deployed in places with solar insolation that is comparable to that in state of Georgia. This study assesses the feasibility and environmental impact of utility scale photovoltaic (PV) electricity production in Georgia by assessing the economic costs, avoided costs, health benefits, and environmental benefits. The cost of PV used in this study is 3.52 $/kW. The RETScreen model was employed to analyze the impact of incentives on the economic viability of the plants that produce 93 GWh, 371 GWh, and 1,484 GWh, respectively. 57% of the capital cost is required in the form of incentives or subsidies to make the projects economically feasible. The high estimated cost of cleaning the equivalent amount of emissions from a coal-fired power plant is $14.5 million, $58 million, and $232 million for a 50 MW, 200 MW, and 800 MW plant, respectively Avoided costs in health damages are estimated to be $28 million, $112 million, and $449 million and the numbers of jobs to be created are 2,500, 10,000, and 40,000 for 50 MW, 200 MW, and 800 MW plants, respectively. And, the cumulative value of renewable energy credits from a 50 MW, 200 MW, and a 800 MW plant are $59 million, $237 million, and $789 million, respectively.

  6. Economic Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor Powered High-Temperature Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Plant

    SciTech Connect

    E. A. Harvego; M. G. McKellar; M. S. Sohal; J. E. O'Brien; J. S. Herring

    2008-08-01

    A reference design for a commercial-scale high-temperature electrolysis (HTE) plant for hydrogen production was developed to provide a basis for comparing the HTE concept with other hydrogen production concepts. The reference plant design is driven by a high-temperature helium-cooled nuclear reactor coupled to a direct Brayton power cycle. The reference design reactor power is 600 MWt, with a primary system pressure of 7.0 MPa, and reactor inlet and outlet fluid temperatures of 540°C and 900°C, respectively. The electrolysis unit used to produce hydrogen includes 4,009,177 cells with a per-cell active area of 225 cm2. The optimized design for the reference hydrogen production plant operates at a system pressure of 5.0 MPa, and utilizes an air-sweep system to remove the excess oxygen that is evolved on the anode (oxygen) side of the electrolyzer. The inlet air for the air-sweep system is compressed to the system operating pressure of 5.0 MPa in a four-stage compressor with intercooling. The alternating-current, AC, to direct-current, DC, conversion efficiency is 96%. The overall system thermal-to-hydrogen production efficiency (based on the lower heating value of the produced hydrogen) is 47.12% at a hydrogen production rate of 2.356 kg/s. An economic analysis of this plant was performed using the standardized H2A Analysis Methodology developed by the Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Program, and using realistic financial and cost estimating assumptions. The results of the economic analysis demonstrated that the HTE hydrogen production plant driven by a high-temperature helium-cooled nuclear power plant can deliver hydrogen at a competitive cost. A cost of $3.23/kg of hydrogen was calculated assuming an internal rate of return of 10%.

  7. Information models of software productivity - Limits on productivity growth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tausworthe, Robert C.

    1992-01-01

    Research into generalized information-metric models of software process productivity establishes quantifiable behavior and theoretical bounds. The models establish a fundamental mathematical relationship between software productivity and the human capacity for information traffic, the software product yield (system size), information efficiency, and tool and process efficiencies. An upper bound is derived that quantifies average software productivity and the maximum rate at which it may grow. This bound reveals that ultimately, when tools, methodologies, and automated assistants have reached their maximum effective state, further improvement in productivity can only be achieved through increasing software reuse. The reuse advantage is shown not to increase faster than logarithmically in the number of reusable features available. The reuse bound is further shown to be somewhat dependent on the reuse policy: a general 'reuse everything' policy can lead to a somewhat slower productivity growth than a specialized reuse policy.

  8. Aquacultural and socio-economic aspects of processing carps into some value-added products.

    PubMed

    Sehgal, H S; Sehgal, G K

    2002-05-01

    Carps are the mainstay of Indian aquaculture, contributing over 90% to the total fish production, which was estimated to be 1.77 million metric tonnes in 1996. Carp culture has a great potential for waste utilization and thus for pollution abatement. Many wastes such as cow, poultry, pig, duck, goat, and sheep excreta, biogas slurry, effluents from different kinds of factories/industries have been efficiently used for enhancing the productivity of natural food of carps and related species. Besides, several organic wastes/byproducts such as plant products, wastes from animal husbandry, and industrial by-products have been used as carp feed ingredients to lower the cost of supplementary feeding. However, to ensure the continued expansion of fish ponds and the pollution control, there must be a market for the fish (carps) produced in these ponds. The carps have, however, a low market value due to the presence of intra-muscular bones, which reduces their consumer acceptability. Thus, a need was felt to develop some boneless convenience products for enhancing the consumer acceptability of the carps. Efforts were made to prepare three value-added fish products, namely fish patty, fish finger and fish salad from carp flesh and were compared with a reference product ('fish pakoura'). Sensory evaluation of these products gave highly encouraging results. The methods of preparation of these products were transferred to some progressive farmers of the region who prepared and sold these products at very attractive prices. Carp processing has a great potential for the establishment of a fish ancillary industry and thus for boosting the production of these species. In Punjab alone, there is a potential of consuming 32,448 metric tonnes per annum of such value-added products (which would require 54,080 metric tonnes of raw fish). The development of value-added products has a significant role in raising the socio-economic status of the people associated with carp culture. The

  9. A model comparison approach shows stronger support for economic models of fertility decline

    PubMed Central

    Shenk, Mary K.; Towner, Mary C.; Kress, Howard C.; Alam, Nurul

    2013-01-01

    The demographic transition is an ongoing global phenomenon in which high fertility and mortality rates are replaced by low fertility and mortality. Despite intense interest in the causes of the transition, especially with respect to decreasing fertility rates, the underlying mechanisms motivating it are still subject to much debate. The literature is crowded with competing theories, including causal models that emphasize (i) mortality and extrinsic risk, (ii) the economic costs and benefits of investing in self and children, and (iii) the cultural transmission of low-fertility social norms. Distinguishing between models, however, requires more comprehensive, better-controlled studies than have been published to date. We use detailed demographic data from recent fieldwork to determine which models produce the most robust explanation of the rapid, recent demographic transition in rural Bangladesh. To rigorously compare models, we use an evidence-based statistical approach using model selection techniques derived from likelihood theory. This approach allows us to quantify the relative evidence the data give to alternative models, even when model predictions are not mutually exclusive. Results indicate that fertility, measured as either total fertility or surviving children, is best explained by models emphasizing economic factors and related motivations for parental investment. Our results also suggest important synergies between models, implicating multiple causal pathways in the rapidity and degree of recent demographic transitions. PMID:23630293

  10. [Economic benefits of overlapping induction: investigation using a computer simulation model].

    PubMed

    Hunziker, S; Baumgart, A; Denz, C; Schüpfer, G

    2009-06-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the potential economic benefit of overlapping anaesthesia induction given that all patient diagnosis-related groups (AP DRG) are used as the model for hospital reimbursement. A computer simulation model was used for this purpose. Due to the resource-intensive production process, the operating room (OR) environment is the most expensive part of the supply chain for surgical disciplines. The economical benefit of a parallel production process (additional personnel, adaptation of the process) as compared to a conventional serial layout was assessed. A computer-based simulation method was used with commercially available simulation software. Assumptions for revenues were made by reimbursement based on AP DRG. Based on a system analysis a model for the computer simulation was designed on a step-by-step abstraction process. In the model two operating rooms were used for parallel processing and two operating rooms for a serial production process. Six different types of surgical procedures based on historical case durations were investigated. The contribution margin was calculated based on the increased revenues minus the cost for the additional anaesthesia personnel. Over a period of 5 weeks 41 additional surgical cases were operated under the assumption of duration of surgery of 89+/-4 min (mean+/-SD). The additional contribution margin was CHF 104,588. In the case of longer surgical procedures with 103+/-25 min duration (mean+/-SD), an increase of 36 cases was possible in the same time period and the contribution margin was increased by CHF 384,836. When surgical cases with a mean procedural time of 243+/-55 min were simulated, 15 additional cases were possible. Therefore, the additional contribution margin was CHF 321,278. Although costs increased in this simulation when a serial production process was changed to a parallel system layout due to more personnel, an increase of the contribution margin was possible, especially with

  11. Using a Simple Economic Impact Model To Document Value to Policy Makers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lillibridge, Fred

    At the request of state legislature, the two-year branch campus of New Mexico State University at Alamogordo (NMSU-A) began using an economic impact model developed by the Eastern Association of College and University Business Officers (EACUBO) to document accountability. The EACUBO Model uses information about the institution and economic data…

  12. Hick Samuelson Keynes Dynamic Economic Model with Discrete Time and Consumer Sentiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobrescu, Loretti I.; Neamå#U, Mihaela; Opriş, Dumitru

    The paper describes the Hick Samuelson Keynes dynamical economic model with discrete time and consumer sentiment. We seek to demonstrate that consumer sentiment may create fluctuations in the economical activities. The model possesses a flip bifurcation and a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, after which the stable state is replaced by a (quasi-) periodic motion.

  13. Ethanol production in southwestern New York: technical and economic feasibility. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Kalter, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    The development of one or more centralized ethanol conversion facilities in the Southwestern portion of New York State is likely to be commercially feasible if either locally-produced cheese whey and/or imported corn are used as a feedstock. Development is shown to be highly profitable under a broad range of economic conditions and technical considerations. Four plant designs ranging in annual production capacity from 1.675 to 27.5 million gallons of ethanol (utilizing alternative feedstocks) are investigated. Although all are found to be economically viable, maximum profitability per unit production are obtained from a 2.5 million gallon plant using only whey. In all cases, a by-product in the form of animal feed is generated, which will result in additional revenue for the conversion facility. In the case of corn/whey plants it takes the form of a distillers dried grain. In the case of whey plants, it takes the form of a high-mineral, medium protein feed supplement for low and moderate producing dairy cattle. Both have a ready market in the region. Also the cheese whey is assumed to be deproteinized at the cheese manufacturing plant prior to delivery to an ethanol conversion plant to obtain a valuable, human-grade food protein.

  14. Economic analysis and environmental impact assessment of three different fermentation processes for fructooligosaccharides production.

    PubMed

    Mussatto, Solange I; Aguiar, Luís M; Marinha, Mariana I; Jorge, Rita C; Ferreira, Eugénio C

    2015-12-01

    Three different fermentation processes for the production of fructooligosaccharides (FOS) were evaluated and compared in terms of economic aspects and environmental impact. The processes included: submerged fermentation of sucrose solution by Aspergillus japonicus using free cells or using the cells immobilized in corn cobs, and solid-state fermentation (SSF) using coffee silverskin as support material and nutrient source. The scale-up was designed using data obtained at laboratory scale and considering an annual productivity goal of 200 t. SSF was the most attractive process in both economic and environmental aspects since it is able to generate FOS with higher annual productivity (232.6 t) and purity (98.6%) than the other processes; reaches the highest annual profit (6.55 M€); presents the lowest payback time (2.27 years); and is more favourable environmentally causing a lower carbon footprint (0.728 kg/kg, expressed in mass of CO2 equivalent per mass of FOS) and the lowest wastewater generation.

  15. The economic production of alcohol fuels from coal-derived synthesis gas

    SciTech Connect

    Kugler, E.L.; Dadyburjor, D.B.; Yang, R.Y.K.

    1995-12-31

    The objectives of this project are to discover, (1) study and evaluate novel heterogeneous catalytic systems for the production of oxygenated fuel enhancers from synthesis gas. Specifically, alternative methods of preparing catalysts are to be investigated, and novel catalysts, including sulfur-tolerant ones, are to be pursued. (Task 1); (2) explore, analytically and on the bench scale, novel reactor and process concepts for use in converting syngas to liquid fuel products. (Task 1); (3) simulate by computer the most energy efficient and economically efficient process for converting coal to energy, with primary focus on converting syngas to fuel alcohols. (Task 2); (4) develop on the bench scale the best holistic combination of chemistry, catalyst, reactor and total process configuration integrated with the overall coal conversion process to achieve economic optimization for the conversion of syngas to liquid products within the framework of achieving the maximum cost effective transformation of coal to energy equivalents. (Tasks 1 and 2); and (5) evaluate the combustion, emission and performance characteristics of fuel alcohols and blends of alcohols with petroleum-based fuels. (Task 2)

  16. Rationale for a follow-up study focusing on economic productivity.

    PubMed

    Martorell, Reynaldo; Behrman, Jere R; Flores, Rafael; Stein, Aryeh D

    2005-06-01

    Past studies of nutrition, human capital formation, and economic productivity have been limited by the fact that biomedical researchers and economists work largely in isolation, with loss of complementarity. Biomedical researchers are faulted for not adequately addressing bias and measurement issues and for naive analyses and interpretation of results, whereas economists are criticized for using simplistic nutrition and physiological measures and for relying on statistical methods rather than experimental designs. To avoid these problems, a multidisciplinary team of biomedical investigators and economists undertook a follow-up study in 2002-04 of a cohort of young men and women, who participated as young children in a randomized community trial of nutrition supplementation carried out from 1969-77 Previous studies, particularly the original trial and a 1988-89 follow- up, are described to provide an overview of the data available for linkage with the 2002-04 follow-up. Key results from these earlier studies are reviewed but judged inconclusive because the data used were collected when many subjects were still growing and developing physically, in school, unmarried, and/or not yet settled into occupations. The subjects were 26 to 41 years of age in 2003, permitting a more complete assessment of human capital and economic productivity. The experimental design of the 1969-77 original study, 35 years of follow-up, use of robust methods of data collection, and the participation of a multidisciplinary team will likely lead to the most comprehensive assessment to date of the importance of nutrition for economic productivity.

  17. H2A Production Model, Version 2 User Guide

    SciTech Connect

    Steward, D.; Ramsden, T.; Zuboy, J.

    2008-09-01

    The H2A Production Model analyzes the technical and economic aspects of central and forecourt hydrogen production technologies. Using a standard discounted cash flow rate of return methodology, it determines the minimum hydrogen selling price, including a specified after-tax internal rate of return from the production technology. Users have the option of accepting default technology input values--such as capital costs, operating costs, and capacity factor--from established H2A production technology cases or entering custom values. Users can also modify the model's financial inputs. This new version of the H2A Production Model features enhanced usability and functionality. Input fields are consolidated and simplified. New capabilities include performing sensitivity analyses and scaling analyses to various plant sizes. This User Guide helps users already familiar with the basic tenets of H2A hydrogen production cost analysis get started using the new version of the model. It introduces the basic elements of the model then describes the function and use of each of its worksheets.

  18. Economics of large-scale thorium oxide production: assessment of domestic resources

    SciTech Connect

    Young, J.K.; Bloomster, C.H.; Enderlin, W.I.; Morgenstern, M.H.; Ballinger, M.Y.; Drost, M.K.; Weakley, S.A.

    1980-02-01

    The supply curve illustrates that sufficient amounts of thorium exist supply a domestic thorium-reactor economy. Most likely costs of production range from $3 to $60/lb ThO/sub 2/. Near-term thorium oxide resources include the stockpiles in Ohio, Maryland, and Tennessee and the thorite deposits at Hall Mountain, Idaho. Costs are under $10/lb thorium oxide. Longer term economic deposits include Wet Mountain, Colorado; Lemhi Pass, Idaho; and Palmer, Michigan. Most likely costs are under $20/lb thorium oxide. Long-term deposits include Bald Mountain, Wyoming; Bear Lodge, Wyoming; and Conway, New Hampshire. Costs approximately equal or exceed $50/lb thorium oxide.

  19. Stockmanship competence and its relation to productivity and economic profitability: the context of backyard goat production in the Philippines.

    PubMed

    Alcedo, M J; Ito, K; Maeda, K

    2015-03-01

    A stockperson has a significant influence on the productivity and welfare of his animals depending on his stockmanship competence. In this study, stockmanship competence (SC) is defined as the capacity of the stockperson to ensure the welfare of his animals by providing his animals' needs. The study was conducted to evaluate the SC of backyard goat raisers and examine its relationship to goat productivity and economic profitability. There were 101 respondents for this study who have all undertaken farmer livestock school on integrated goat management (FLS-IGM). Interview was conducted in Region I, Philippines on September 3 to 30, 2012 and March 4 to 17, 2013. Data on SC, goat productivity and farmer's income were gathered. Questions regarding SC were formulated based on the Philippine Recommendations for Goat Production and from other scientific literature. Housing, feeding, breeding and health and husbandry management were the indicators used in computing stockmanship competence index score (SCIS). Pearson correlation using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was carried out to analyse the relationship between SCIS, productivity and income. Based from the results of the study, a majority of the respondents raised native and upgraded goats. The computed mean SCIS before and after undergoing FLS-IGM were 38.52% and 75.81% respectively, a percentage difference of 65.23%. Both index scores resulted in significant differences in productivity and income. The median mature weight and mortality rate of goats before FLS-IGM was 14 kg and 30% respectively. After FLS-IGM, median mature weight was 19 kg and mortality rate decreased from 30% to 11.11%. Likewise, fewer goat diseases were observed by farmers who were able to undergo FLS-IGM. With regard to income, there was a 127.34% difference on the median net income derived by farmers. Result implies that improved SC could lead not only to increased productivity and income of backyard goat raisers but also to

  20. Stockmanship Competence and Its Relation to Productivity and Economic Profitability: The Context of Backyard Goat Production in the Philippines

    PubMed Central

    Alcedo, M. J.; Ito, K.; Maeda, K.

    2015-01-01

    A stockperson has a significant influence on the productivity and welfare of his animals depending on his stockmanship competence. In this study, stockmanship competence (SC) is defined as the capacity of the stockperson to ensure the welfare of his animals by providing his animals’ needs. The study was conducted to evaluate the SC of backyard goat raisers and examine its relationship to goat productivity and economic profitability. There were 101 respondents for this study who have all undertaken farmer livestock school on integrated goat management (FLS-IGM). Interview was conducted in Region I, Philippines on September 3 to 30, 2012 and March 4 to 17, 2013. Data on SC, goat productivity and farmer’s income were gathered. Questions regarding SC were formulated based on the Philippine Recommendations for Goat Production and from other scientific literature. Housing, feeding, breeding and health and husbandry management were the indicators used in computing stockmanship competence index score (SCIS). Pearson correlation using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was carried out to analyse the relationship between SCIS, productivity and income. Based from the results of the study, a majority of the respondents raised native and upgraded goats. The computed mean SCIS before and after undergoing FLS-IGM were 38.52% and 75.81% respectively, a percentage difference of 65.23%. Both index scores resulted in significant differences in productivity and income. The median mature weight and mortality rate of goats before FLS-IGM was 14 kg and 30% respectively. After FLS-IGM, median mature weight was 19 kg and mortality rate decreased from 30% to 11.11%. Likewise, fewer goat diseases were observed by farmers who were able to undergo FLS-IGM. With regard to income, there was a 127.34% difference on the median net income derived by farmers. Result implies that improved SC could lead not only to increased productivity and income of backyard goat raisers but also to

  1. Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

    SciTech Connect

    Goldberg, M.

    2013-12-31

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

  2. It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling.

    PubMed

    Quaas, Martin F; Reusch, Thorsten B H; Schmidt, Jörn O; Tahvonen, Olli; Voss, Rudi

    2016-01-01

    Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

  3. Productivity cost calculations in health economic evaluations: correcting for compensation mechanisms and multiplier effects.

    PubMed

    Krol, Marieke; Brouwer, Werner B F; Severens, Johan L; Kaper, Janneke; Evers, Silvia M A A

    2012-12-01

    Productivity costs related to paid work are commonly calculated in economic evaluations of health technologies by multiplying the relevant number of work days lost with a wage rate estimate. It has been argued that actual productivity costs may either be lower or higher than current estimates due to compensation mechanisms and/or multiplier effects (related to team dependency and problems with finding good substitutes in cases of absenteeism). Empirical evidence on such mechanisms and their impact on productivity costs is scarce, however. This study aims to increase knowledge on how diminished productivity is compensated within firms. Moreover, it aims to explore how compensation and multiplier effects potentially affect productivity cost estimates. Absenteeism and compensation mechanisms were measured in a randomized trial among Dutch citizens examining the cost-effectiveness of reimbursement for smoking cessation treatment. Multiplier effects were extracted from published literature. Productivity costs were calculated applying the Friction Cost Approach. Regular estimates were subsequently adjusted for (i) compensation during regular working hours, (ii) job dependent multipliers and (iii) both compensation and multiplier effects. A total of 187 respondents included in the trial were useful for inclusion in this study, based on being in paid employment, having experienced absenteeism in the preceding six months and completing the questionnaire on absenteeism and compensation mechanisms. Over half of these respondents stated that their absenteeism was compensated during normal working hours by themselves or colleagues. Only counting productivity costs not compensated in regular working hours reduced the traditional estimate by 57%. Correcting for multiplier effects increased regular estimates by a quarter. Combining both impacts decreased traditional estimates by 29%. To conclude, large amounts of lost production are compensated in normal hours. Productivity costs

  4. The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-02-01

    of each one? f . What are the anticipated costs of each one? g. What are the relevant time horizons? (e.g., release dates, testing dates) 2. Formulate...Knauber, Peter; Bermejo , Jesus; Bockle, Gflnter; Leite, Julio; van der Linden, Frank; Northrop, Linda; Stark, Michael; & Weiss, David. "Quantifying...McGregor, John D. "Managing Metrics in an Iterative Environment." Object Magazine 5, 6 (1995): 65-7 1. [Mill 00] Mili, A.; Chmiel, S. F .; Gottumukkala, R

  5. Computer Model for Economic Study of Unbleached Kraft Paperboard Production.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-08-01

    mill machines (ratio of heat Input that exits in feedwater, and equipment: average). TCHP = 0.0 HCCN -Enthalpy of combined condensate from steam system...to deaerator (Btu/pound of TCHP = TCHP + HP (I), for I = 1 to 16 condensate). HCMW -Enthalpy of make-up water to deaerator Calculate power load of...mill machines and equipment (Btu/pound of make-up water). (total horsepower): HHPP -Enthalpy of high-pressure process steam TPLD = TCHP x ALFC (Btu/pound

  6. Status Report on Modeling and Analysis of Small Modular Reactor Economics

    SciTech Connect

    Harrison, Thomas J; Hale, Richard Edward; Moses, Rebecca J

    2013-04-01

    This report describes the work performed to generate the model for SMR economic analysis. The model is based on the G4-ECONS calculation tool developed for the Generation IV International Forum (GIF).

  7. Evaluation of the DEIMS (Defense Economic Impact Modeling System) System.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-07-01

    4-241 for the Office of Economic Adjustment, Office of the Secretary of Defense. S!iii ii ° . .0 C, p -7 .--7 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface i Conference...34L , 1•" ou P •R May 8, 1984 FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF DEFENSE SPENDING CONFERENCE SaiEDULE 8:00 am Registration (coffee and danish) i 8:45 WELCOME... p . • .financial support from the Office of Economic Adjustment and • "the Office of the Director, Program Analysis and Evaluation, Office of the

  8. The Economic Impacts of Bioenergy Crop Production on U.S. Agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Dr. Daniel De La Torre Ugarte

    2000-07-01

    The oil embargoes of the 1970s raised concerns about energy security. Large scale production of bioenergy crops could have significant impacts on the US agricultural sector in terms of quantities, prices and production location of traditional crops as well as farm income. USDA, UT and ORNL modified an agricultural sector model to include switchgrass, hybrid poplar, and willow.

  9. Public health impact and economic evaluation of vitamin D-fortified dairy products for fracture prevention in France.

    PubMed

    Hiligsmann, M; Burlet, N; Fardellone, P; Al-Daghri, N; Reginster, J-Y

    2017-03-01

    The recommended intake of vitamin D-fortified dairy products can substantially decrease the burden of osteoporotic fractures and seems an economically beneficial strategy in the general French population aged over 60 years.

  10. System Evaluation and Economic Analysis of a HTGR Powered High-Temperature Electrolysis Hydrogen Production Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Michael G. McKellar; Edwin A. Harvego; Anastasia A. Gandrik

    2010-10-01

    A design for a commercial-scale high-temperature electrolysis (HTE) plant for hydrogen production has been developed. The HTE plant is powered by a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) whose configuration and operating conditions are based on the latest design parameters planned for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP). The current HTGR reference design specifies a reactor power of 600 MWt, with a primary system pressure of 7.0 MPa, and reactor inlet and outlet fluid temperatures of 322°C and 750°C, respectively. The power conversion unit will be a Rankine steam cycle with a power conversion efficiency of 40%. The reference hydrogen production plant operates at a system pressure of 5.0 MPa, and utilizes a steam-sweep system to remove the excess oxygen that is evolved on the anode (oxygen) side of the electrolyzer. The overall system thermal-to-hydrogen production efficiency (based on the higher heating value of the produced hydrogen) is 40.4% at a hydrogen production rate of 1.75 kg/s and an oxygen production rate of 13.8 kg/s. An economic analysis of this plant was performed with realistic financial and cost estimating assumptions. The results of the economic analysis demonstrated that the HTE hydrogen production plant driven by a high-temperature helium-cooled nuclear power plant can deliver hydrogen at a cost of $3.67/kg of hydrogen assuming an internal rate of return, IRR, of 12% and a debt to equity ratio of 80%/20%. A second analysis shows that if the power cycle efficiency increases to 44.4%, the hydrogen production efficiency increases to 42.8% and the hydrogen and oxygen production rates are 1.85 kg/s and 14.6 kg/s respectively. At the higher power cycle efficiency and an IRR of 12% the cost of hydrogen production is $3.50/kg.

  11. Investigating the productivity model for clinical nurses.

    PubMed

    Dehghan Nayeri, Nahid; Hooshmand Bahabadi, Abbas; Kazemnejad, Anoshirvan

    2014-01-01

    One of the main objectives of quantitative researches is assessment of models developed by qualitative studies. Models validation through their testing implies that the designed model is representative of the existed facts. Hence, this study was conducted to assess the clinical nurses' productivity model presented for Iranian nurses' productivity. The sample of the study consisted of 360 nurses of Tehran University of Medical Sciences. The research tool was a questionnaire for measuring the components of clinical nurses' productivity. After completing all steps of instrument psychometric and getting answers from the participants, the factors introduced in the questionnaire were named and then Lisrel Path Analysis tests were performed to analyze the components of the model. The results of the model test revealed there is an internal relationship among different components of the model. Regression Analysis showed that each increasing unit in components of the model was to be added to central variable of productivity model -human resource. Model components altogether explained 20 % of clinical nurses' productivity variance. This study found that the important component of productivity is human resources that are reciprocally related to other components of the model. Therefore, it can be stated that the managers can promote the productivity by using efficient strategies to correct human resource patterns.

  12. Estimating Green Net National Product for Puerto Rico: An Economic Measure of Sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shanshan; Heberling, Matthew T.

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents the data sources and methodology used to estimate Green Net National Product (GNNP), an economic metric of sustainability, for Puerto Rico. Using the change in GNNP as a one-sided test of weak sustainability (i.e., positive growth in GNNP is not enough to show the economy is sustainable), we measure the movement away from sustainability by examining the change in GNNP from 1993 to 2009. In order to calculate GNNP, we require both economic and natural capital data, but limited data for Puerto Rico require a number of simplifying assumptions. Based on the environmental challenges faced by Puerto Rico, we include damages from air emissions and solid waste, the storm protection value of mangroves and the value of extracting crushed stone as components in the depreciation of natural capital. Our estimate of GNNP also includes the value of time, which captures the effects of technological progress. The results show that GNNP had an increasing trend over the 17 years studied with two periods of negative growth (2004-2006 and 2007-2008). Our additional analysis suggests that the negative growth in 2004-2006 was possibly due to a temporary economic downturn. However, the negative growth in 2007-2008 was likely from the decline in the value of time, suggesting the island of Puerto Rico was moving away from sustainability during this time.

  13. Estimating Green Net National Product for Puerto Rico: An Economic Measure of Sustainability.

    PubMed

    Wu, Shanshan; Heberling, Matthew T

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents the data sources and methodology used to estimate Green Net National Product (GNNP), an economic metric of sustainability, for Puerto Rico. Using the change in GNNP as a one-sided test of weak sustainability (i.e., positive growth in GNNP is not enough to show the economy is sustainable), we measure the movement away from sustainability by examining the change in GNNP from 1993 to 2009. In order to calculate GNNP, we require both economic and natural capital data, but limited data for Puerto Rico require a number of simplifying assumptions. Based on the environmental challenges faced by Puerto Rico, we include damages from air emissions and solid waste, the storm protection value of mangroves and the value of extracting crushed stone as components in the depreciation of natural capital. Our estimate of GNNP also includes the value of time, which captures the effects of technological progress. The results show that GNNP had an increasing trend over the 17 years studied with two periods of negative growth (2004-2006 and 2007-2008). Our additional analysis suggests that the negative growth in 2004-2006 was possibly due to a temporary economic downturn. However, the negative growth in 2007-2008 was likely from the decline in the value of time, suggesting the island of Puerto Rico was moving away from sustainability during this time.

  14. The Economic Impact of Shale Gas Production in the U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Yang

    Energy is important to our daily lives. A price change of one energy type may influence our consumption choices, commodities prices and industry production. For the United States, shale gas is becoming a promising source of natural gas because of the rapid increase in its reserve and production capacity. Shale gas production is projected to be a large proportion of U.S. gas production, as predicted by Energy Information Administration (EIA). However, besides knowing the big picture, more details are needed before characterizing shale gas as a "game changer." It is interesting to address questions like to what extent the production of shale gas could affect other industries' production, stabilize commodities' prices, and what are the impacts on factor payments, capital returns, labor payments and household consumption. In this study, I use a CGE model to measure the impact on industry and the change in social welfare associated with shale gas production.

  15. Integrating spread dynamics and economics of timber production to manage Chinese tallow invasions in southern U.S. forestlands.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Grant, William E; Gan, Jianbang; Rogers, William E; Swannack, Todd M; Koralewski, Tomasz E; Miller, James H; Taylor, John W

    2012-01-01

    Economic costs associated with the invasion of nonnative species are of global concern. We estimated expected costs of Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera (L.) Small) invasions related to timber production in southern U.S. forestlands under different management strategies. Expected costs were confined to the value of timber production losses plus costs for search and control. We simulated management strategies including (1) no control (NC), and control beginning as soon as the percentage of invaded forest land exceeded (2) 60 (Low Control), (3) 25 (Medium Control), or (4) 0 (High Control) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, bioeconomic model. With NC, simulated invasions spread northward and westward into Arkansas and along the Gulf of Mexico to occupy ≈1.2 million hectares within 20 years, with associated expected total costs increasing exponentially to ≈$300 million. With LC, MC, and HC, invaded areas reached ≈275, 34, and 2 thousand hectares after 20 years, respectively, with associated expected costs reaching ≈$400, $230, and $200 million. Complete eradication would not be cost-effective; the minimum expected total cost was achieved when control began as soon as the percentage of invaded land exceeded 5%. These results suggest the importance of early detection and control of Chinese tallow, and emphasize the importance of integrating spread dynamics and economics to manage invasive species.

  16. Integrating Spread Dynamics and Economics of Timber Production to Manage Chinese Tallow Invasions in Southern U.S. Forestlands

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Grant, William E.; Gan, Jianbang; Rogers, William E.; Swannack, Todd M.; Koralewski, Tomasz E.; Miller, James H.; Taylor, John W.

    2012-01-01

    Economic costs associated with the invasion of nonnative species are of global concern. We estimated expected costs of Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera (L.) Small) invasions related to timber production in southern U.S. forestlands under different management strategies. Expected costs were confined to the value of timber production losses plus costs for search and control. We simulated management strategies including (1) no control (NC), and control beginning as soon as the percentage of invaded forest land exceeded (2) 60 (Low Control), (3) 25 (Medium Control), or (4) 0 (High Control) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic, bioeconomic model. With NC, simulated invasions spread northward and westward into Arkansas and along the Gulf of Mexico to occupy ≈1.2 million hectares within 20 years, with associated expected total costs increasing exponentially to ≈$300 million. With LC, MC, and HC, invaded areas reached ≈275, 34, and 2 thousand hectares after 20 years, respectively, with associated expected costs reaching ≈$400, $230, and $200 million. Complete eradication would not be cost-effective; the minimum expected total cost was achieved when control began as soon as the percentage of invaded land exceeded 5%. These results suggest the importance of early detection and control of Chinese tallow, and emphasize the importance of integrating spread dynamics and economics to manage invasive species. PMID:22442731

  17. Economic effects of ozone on US agriculture: a sector modeling approach

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, S.A.

    1985-01-01

    Tropospheric ozone is a pollutant that has detrimental effects on crop yields. The level of ambient ozone can be reduced by environmental policy changes and enforcement. The purpose of this study was to estimate the welfare effects of such changes in ambient ozone using recently available plant response data and an economically consistent approach. A 25% reduction in ambient ozone was estimated to increase total welfare by approximately $1.7 billion. About 40% of the benefits accrue to producers, 25% to domestic consumers and 35% to foreign consumers. These benefits estimates do not consider compliance costs. A variety of changes in ambient ozone are considered for ranges of crop sensitivity. The analysis was conducted using a mathematical-programming sector model of the US agriculture. The model is a long-run equilibrium model encompassing regional production of the major crops and livestock products, as well as processing and export activities. Proposals for improving the performance of sector models were examined. Alternative methods for incorporating aggregate response assumptions were found to have little effect on estimates of total welfare changes but had important consequences for the distributional effects between producers and consumers.

  18. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  19. Technical and economic assessment of processes for the production of butanol and acetone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    This report represents a preliminary technical and economic evaluation of a process which produces mixed solvents (butaol/acetone/ethanol) via fermentation of sugars derived from renewable biomass resources. The objective is to assess the technology of producing butanol/acetone from biomass, and select a viable process capable of serving as a base case model for technical and economic analysis. It is anticipated that the base case process developed herein can then be used as the basis for subsequent studies concerning biomass conversion processes capable of producing a wide range of chemicals. The general criteria utilized in determining the design basis for the process are profit potential and non-renewable energy displacement potential. The feedstock chosen, aspen wood, was selected from a number of potential renewable biomass resources as the most readily available in the United States and for its relatively large potential for producing reducing sugars.

  20. An interactive environmental model for economic growth: evidence from a panel of countries.

    PubMed

    Ramakrishnan, Suresh; Hishan, Sanil S; Nabi, Agha Amad; Arshad, Zeeshan; Kanjanapathy, Malini; Zaman, Khalid; Khan, Faisal

    2016-07-01

    This study aims to determine an interactive environmental model for economic growth that would be supported by the "sustainability principles" across the globe. The study examines the relationship between environmental pollutants (i.e., carbon dioxide emission, sulfur dioxide emission, mono-nitrogen oxide, and nitrous oxide emission); population growth; energy use; trade openness; per capita food production; and it's resulting impact on the real per capita GDP and sectoral growth (i.e., share of agriculture, industry, and services in GDP) in a panel of 34 high-income OECD, high-income non-OECD, and Europe and Central Asian countries, for the period of 1995-2014. The results of the panel fixed effect regression show that per capita GDP are influenced by sulfur dioxide emission, population growth, and per capita food production variability, while energy and trade openness significantly increases per capita income of the region. The results of the panel Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) show that carbon dioxide emission significantly decreases the share of agriculture and industry in GDP, while it further supports the share of services sector to GDP. Both the sulfur dioxide and mono-nitrogen oxide emission decreases the share of services in GDP; nitrous oxide decreases the share of industry in GDP; while mono-nitrogen oxide supports the industrial activities. The following key growth-specific results has been obtained from the panel SUR estimation, i.e., (i) Both the food production per capita and trade openness significantly associated with the increasing share of agriculture, (ii) food production and energy use significantly increases the service sectors' productivity; (iii) food production decreases the industrial activities; (iv) trade openness decreases the share of services to GDP while it supports the industrial share to GDP; and finally, (v) energy demand decreases along with the increase agricultural share in the region. The results emphasize the need for

  1. Modeling Sustainability in Product Development and Commercialization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carlson, Robert C.; Rafinejad, Dariush

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors present the framework of a model that integrates strategic product development decisions with the product's impact on future conditions of resources and the environment. The impact of a product on stocks of nonrenewable sources and sinks is linked in a feedback loop to the cost of manufacturing and using the product…

  2. Economic analysis of pilot-scale production of B-phycoerythrin.

    PubMed

    Torres-Acosta, Mario A; Ruiz-Ruiz, Federico; Aguilar-Yáñez, José M; Benavides, Jorge; Rito-Palomares, Marco

    2016-11-01

    β-Phycoerythrin is a color protein with several applications, from food coloring to molecular labeling. Depending on the application, different purity is required, affecting production cost and price. Different production and purification strategies for B-phycoerythrin have been developed, the most studied are based on the production using Porphyridium cruentum and purified using chromatographic techniques or aqueous two-phase systems. The use of the latter can result in a less expensive and intensive recovery of the protein, but there is lack of a proper economic analysis to study the effect of using aqueous two-phase systems in a scaled-up process. This study analyzed the production of B-Phycoerythrin using real data obtained during the scale-up of a bioprocess using specialized software (BioSolve, Biopharm Services, UK). First, a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify critical parameters for the production cost, then a Monte Carlo analysis to emulate real processes by adding uncertainty to the identified parameters. Next, the bioprocess was analyzed to determine its financial attractiveness and possible optimization strategies were tested and discussed. Results show that aqueous two-phase systems retain their advantages of low cost and intensive recovery (54.56%); the costs of production per gram calculated (before titer optimization: US$15,709 and after optimization: US$2,374) allowed to obtain profit (in the range of US$millions in a 10-year period) for a potential company taking this production method by comparing the production cost against commercial prices. The bioprocess analyzed is a promising and profitable method for the generation of a highly purified B-phycoerythrin. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:1472-1479, 2016.

  3. Nano-Disperse Borides and Carbides: Plasma Technology Production, Specific Properties, Economic Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galevskii, G. V.; Rudneva, V. V.; Galevskii, S. G.; Tomas, K. I.; Zubkov, M. S.

    2016-04-01

    The experience of production and study on properties of nano-disperse chromium and titanium borides and carbides, and silicon carbide has been generalized. The structure and special service aspects of utilized plasma-metallurgical complex equipped with a three-jet direct-flow reactor with a capacity of 150 kW have been outlined. Processing, heat engineering and service life characteristics of the reactor are specified. The synthesis parameters of borides and carbides, as well as their basic characteristics in nano-disperse condition and their production flow diagram are outlined. Engineering and economic performance of synthesizing borides in laboratory and industrial conditions is assessed, and the respective segment of the international market as well. The work is performed at State Siberian Industrial University as a project part of the State Order of Ministry of Science and Education of the Russian Federation No. 11.1531/2014/K.

  4. A review of the global prevalence, molecular epidemiology and economics of cystic echinococcosis in production animals.

    PubMed

    Cardona, Guillermo A; Carmena, David

    2013-02-18

    Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is an important and widespread zoonotic infection caused by the larval stages of taeniid cestodes of the genus Echinococcus. The disease represents a serious animal health concern in many rural areas of the world, causing important economic losses derived from decreased productivity and viscera condemnation in livestock species. In this review we aim to provide a comprehensive overview on recent research progress in the epidemiology of CE in production animals from a global perspective. Particular attention has been paid to the discussion of the extent and significance of recent molecular epidemiologic data. The financial burden associated to CE on the livestock industry has also been addressed. Data presented are expected to improve our current understanding of the parasite's geographical distribution, transmission, host range, immunogenicity, pathogenesis, and genotype frequencies. This information should be also valuable for the design and implementation of more efficient control strategies against CE.

  5. Comparison of various microalgae liquid biofuel production pathways based on energetic, economic and environmental criteria.

    PubMed

    Delrue, F; Li-Beisson, Y; Setier, P-A; Sahut, C; Roubaud, A; Froment, A-K; Peltier, G

    2013-05-01

    In view of the increasing demand for bioenergy, in this study, the techno-economic viabilities for three emerging pathways to microalgal biofuel production have been evaluated. The three processes evaluated are the hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), oil secretion and alkane secretion. These three routes differ in their lipid extraction procedure and the end-products produced. This analysis showed that these three processes showed various advantages: possibility to convert the defatted microalgae into bio-crude via HTL thus increasing the total biodiesel yield; better energetic and environmental performance for oil secretion and an even increased net energy ratio (NER) for alkane secretion. However, great technological breakthroughs are needed before planning any scale-up strategy such as continuous wet biomass processing and heat exchange optimization for the HTL pathway and effective and sustainable excretion for both secretion pathways.

  6. Uncertainty analysis and global sensitivity analysis of techno-economic assessments for biodiesel production.

    PubMed

    Tang, Zhang-Chun; Zhenzhou, Lu; Zhiwen, Liu; Ningcong, Xiao

    2015-01-01

    There are various uncertain parameters in the techno-economic assessments (TEAs) of biodiesel production, including capital cost, interest rate, feedstock price, maintenance rate, biodiesel conversion efficiency, glycerol price and operating cost. However, fewer studies focus on the influence of these parameters on TEAs. This paper investigated the effects of these parameters on the life cycle cost (LCC) and the unit cost (UC) in the TEAs of biodiesel production. The results show that LCC and UC exhibit variations when involving uncertain parameters. Based on the uncertainty analysis, three global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods are utilized to quantify the contribution of an individual uncertain parameter to LCC and UC. The GSA results reveal that the feedstock price and the interest rate produce considerable effects on the TEAs. These results can provide a useful guide for entrepreneurs when they plan plants.

  7. The economic and community impacts of closing Hanford's N Reactor and nuclear materials production facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, M.J.; Belzer, D.B.; Nesse, R.J.; Schultz, R.W.; Stokowski, P.A.; Clark, D.C.

    1987-08-01

    This study discusses the negative economic impact on local cities and counties and the State of Washington of a permanent closure of nuclear materials production at the Hanford Site, located in the southeastern part of the state. The loss of nuclear materials production, the largest and most important of the five Department of Energy (DOE) missions at Hanford, could occur if Hanford's N Reactor is permanently closed and not replaced. The study provides estimates of statewide and local losses in jobs, income, and purchases from the private sector caused by such an event; it forecasts impacts on state and local government finances; and it describes certain local community and social impacts in the Tri-Cities (Richland, Kennewick, and Pasco) and surrounding communities. 33 refs., 8 figs., 22 tabs.

  8. Effect of production quotas on economic and environmental values of growth rate and feed efficiency in sea cage fish farming

    PubMed Central

    Besson, M.; de Boer, I. J. M.; Vandeputte, M.; van Arendonk, J. A. M.; Quillet, E.; Komen, H.; Aubin, J.

    2017-01-01

    In sea cage fish farming, production quotas aim to constrain the impact of fish farming on the surrounding ecosystem. It is unknown how these quotas affect economic profitability and environmental impact of genetic improvement. We combined bioeconomic modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA) to calculate the economic (EV) and environmental (ENV) values of thermal growth coefficient (TGC) and feed conversion ratio (FCR) of sea bass reared in sea cages, given four types of quota commonly used in Europe: annual production (Qprod), annual feed distributed (Qannual_feed), standing stock (Qstock), and daily feed distributed (Qdaily_feed). ENV were calculated for LCA impact categories climate change, eutrophication and acidification. ENV were expressed per ton of fish produced per year (ENV(fish)) and per farm per year (ENV(farm)). Results show that irrespective of quota used, EV of FCR as well as ENV(fish) and ENV(farm) were always positive, meaning that improving FCR increased profit and decreased environmental impacts. However, the EV and the ENV(fish) of TGC were positive only when quota was Qstock or Qdaily_feed. Moreover, the ENV(farm) of TGC was negative in Qstock and Qdaily_feed quotas, meaning that improving TGC increased the environmental impact of the farm. We conclude that Qstock quota and Qdaily_feed quota are economically favorable to a genetic improvement of TGC, a major trait for farmers. However, improving TGC increases the environmental impact of the farm. Improving FCR represents a good opportunity to balance out this increase but more information on its genetic background is needed to develop breeding programs improving FCR. PMID:28288179

  9. Effect of production quotas on economic and environmental values of growth rate and feed efficiency in sea cage fish farming.

    PubMed

    Besson, M; de Boer, I J M; Vandeputte, M; van Arendonk, J A M; Quillet, E; Komen, H; Aubin, J

    2017-01-01

    In sea cage fish farming, production quotas aim to constrain the impact of fish farming on the surrounding ecosystem. It is unknown how these quotas affect economic profitability and environmental impact of genetic improvement. We combined bioeconomic modelling with life cycle assessment (LCA) to calculate the economic (EV) and environmental (ENV) values of thermal growth coefficient (TGC) and feed conversion ratio (FCR) of sea bass reared in sea cages, given four types of quota commonly used in Europe: annual production (Qprod), annual feed distributed (Qannual_feed), standing stock (Qstock), and daily feed distributed (Qdaily_feed). ENV were calculated for LCA impact categories climate change, eutrophication and acidification. ENV were expressed per ton of fish produced per year (ENV(fish)) and per farm per year (ENV(farm)). Results show that irrespective of quota used, EV of FCR as well as ENV(fish) and ENV(farm) were always positive, meaning that improving FCR increased profit and decreased environmental impacts. However, the EV and the ENV(fish) of TGC were positive only when quota was Qstock or Qdaily_feed. Moreover, the ENV(farm) of TGC was negative in Qstock and Qdaily_feed quotas, meaning that improving TGC increased the environmental impact of the farm. We conclude that Qstock quota and Qdaily_feed quota are economically favorable to a genetic improvement of TGC, a major trait for farmers. However, improving TGC increases the environmental impact of the farm. Improving FCR represents a good opportunity to balance out this increase but more information on its genetic background is needed to develop breeding programs improving FCR.

  10. Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

    2013-04-01

    Hydrologic-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure management at the river basin scale. These models simultaneously analyze engineering, hydrology and economic aspects of water resources management. Two new tools have been designed to develop models within this approach: a simulation tool (SIM_GAMS), for models in which water is allocated each month based on supply priorities to competing uses and system operating rules, and an optimization tool (OPT_GAMS), in which water resources are allocated optimally following economic criteria. The characterization of the water resource network system requires a connectivity matrix representing the topology of the elements, generated using HydroPlatform. HydroPlatform, an open-source software platform for network (node-link) models, allows to store, display and export all information needed to characterize the system. Two generic non-linear models have been programmed in GAMS to use the inputs from HydroPlatform in simulation and optimization models. The simulation model allocates water resources on a monthly basis, according to different targets (demands, storage, environmental flows, hydropower production, etc.), priorities and other system operating rules (such as reservoir operating rules). The optimization model's objective function is designed so that the system meets operational targets (ranked according to priorities) each month while following system operating rules. This function is analogous to the one used in the simulation module of the DSS AQUATOOL. Each element of the system has its own contribution to the objective function through unit cost coefficients that preserve the relative priority rank and the system operating rules. The model incorporates groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction (allowing conjunctive use simulation) with a wide range of modeling options, from lumped and analytical approaches to parameter-distributed models (eigenvalue approach). Such

  11. A Tentative Model of Discourse Production.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kucer, S. B.

    One model of discourse production attempts to explicate deeper-level decisions that writers make, to explain why some writing activities may be more successful than others, and to indicate likely profitable modes of instruction. The model views discourse production as a series of three interactive decision levels in which (1)…

  12. Thermal stress and tropical cyclones affect economic production in Central America and Caribbean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsiang, S. M.

    2009-12-01

    Surface temperatures and tropical cyclones have large impacts on economic production. Local cyclone energy dissipation reduces output in agriculture and tourism, while stimulating output in construction. High surface temperatures reduce output in several labor-intensive industries; a 1° C increase for two consecutive years results in production losses of ˜13%. The response is greatest during the hottest season and is non-linear, with high temperature days contributing the most to production losses. The structure of this response matches results from a large ergonomics literature, supporting the hypothesis that thermal stress reduces human performance, driving macroeconomic fluctuations. This large response of non-agricultural sectors suggests that current estimates underestimate the scale and scope of economic vulnerabilities to climate change. Responses of each industry to surface temperature, tropical cyclones and rainfall. Estimates represent the change of value-added in the industry in response to each atmospheric variables during the year of production (L=0) and the years prior (L≥1). The responses to surface temperature are triangles, tropical cyclones are squares and rainfall are crosses. Estimates are grey if none of the annual responses are significant at the α = 0.1 level. Whiskers indicate 95% confidence intervals. Tourism receipts displays the five years prior (L=1-5) because of the long response of that industry to cyclones. Agriculture per worker is also plotted as circles when estimated a second time excluding mainland countries from the sample. Units are: temperature- percent change in output per 0.33°C; cyclones- percent changes in output per 1 standard deviation of tropical cyclone energy; rainfall- percent change in output per 2 cm/month.

  13. Fish Processed Production Planning Using Integer Stochastic Programming Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmansyah, Mawengkang, Herman

    2011-06-01

    Fish and its processed products are the most affordable source of animal protein in the diet of most people in Indonesia. The goal in production planning is to meet customer demand over a fixed time horizon divided into planning periods by optimizing the trade-off between economic objectives such as production cost and customer satisfaction level. The major decisions are production and inventory levels for each product and the number of workforce in each planning period. In this paper we consider the management of small scale traditional business at North Sumatera Province which performs processing fish into several local seafood products. The inherent uncertainty of data (e.g. demand, fish availability), together with the sequential evolution of data over time leads the production planning problem to a nonlinear mixed-integer stochastic programming model. We use scenario generation based approach and feasible neighborhood search for solving the model. The results which show the amount of each fish processed product and the number of workforce needed in each horizon planning are presented.

  14. Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Williams, Jimmy R.

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to

  15. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  16. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

    PubMed

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs

  17. Final Technical Report on Development of an Economic and Efficient Biodiesel production Process (NC)

    SciTech Connect

    Tirla, Cornelia; Dooling, Thomas A.; Smith, Rachel B.; Shi, Xinyan; Shahbazi, Abolghasem

    2014-03-19

    The Biofuels Team at The University of North Carolina at Pembroke and North Carolina A&T State University carried out a joint research project aimed at developing an efficient process to produce biodiesel. In this project, the team developed and tested various types of homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysts which could replace the conventionally used soluble potassium hydroxide catalyst which, traditionally, must be separated and disposed of at the end of the process. As a result of this screening, the homogeneous catalyst choline hydroxide was identified as a potential replacement for the traditional catalyst used in this process, potassium hydroxide, due to its decreased corrosiveness and toxicity. A large number of heterogeneous catalysts were produced and tested in order to determine the scaffold, ion type and ion concentration which would produce optimum yield of biodiesel. The catalyst with 12% calcium on Zeolite β was identified as being highly effective and optimal reaction conditions were identified. Furthermore, a packed bed reactor utilizing this type of catalyst was designed, constructed and tested in order to further optimize the process. An economic analysis of the viability of the project showed that the cost of an independent farmer to produce the fuelstock required to produce biodiesel exceeds the cost of petroleum diesel under current conditions and that therefore without incentives, farmers would not be able to benefit economically from producing their own fuel. An educational website on biodiesel production and analysis was produced and a laboratory experiment demonstrating the production of biodiesel was developed and implemented into the Organic Chemistry II laboratory curriculum at UNCP. Five workshops for local farmers and agricultural agents were held in order to inform the broader community about the various fuelstock available, their cultivation and the process and advantages of biodiesel use and production. This project fits both

  18. Assessment of free-living nitrogen fixing microorganisms for commercial nitrogen fixation. [economic analysis of ammonia production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stokes, B. O.; Wallace, C. J.

    1978-01-01

    Ammonia production by Klebsiella pneumoniae is not economical with present strains and improving nitrogen fixation to its theoretical limits in this organism is not sufficient to achieve economic viability. Because the value of both the hydrogen produced by this organism and the methane value of the carbon source required greatly exceed the value of the ammonia formed, ammonia (fixed nitrogen) should be considered the by-product. The production of hydrogen by KLEBSIELLA or other anaerobic nitrogen fixers should receive additional study, because the activity of nitrogenase offers a significant improvement in hydrogen production. The production of fixed nitrogen in the form of cell mass by Azotobacter is also uneconomical and the methane value of the carbon substrate exceeds the value of the nitrogen fixed. Parametric studies indicate that as efficiencies approach the theoretical limits the economics may become competitive. The use of nif-derepressed microorganisms, particularly blue-green algae, may have significant potential for in situ fertilization in the environment.

  19. ERDYM: Economic Recovery Dynamics Model. Volume 1. Modifications and Simulations.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-05-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratories AEAOKNTUSR P.O. Bx 999FEMA Work Unit 4342-D * Richland, Washington 99352 I. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12...dleu.,m, hft Controlling Office) 15. SECURITY CLASS. (of thls report) Unclassified I 1a. DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE 16. DISTRIBUTION...rationinq and wage and price controls . 2.6.1 Economic Role of Government Revenues * The representation of government financinq in ERDYM is straiqhtfoward. 9

  20. An Economic Aspect of the AVOID Programme: Analysis Using the AIM/CGE Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsumoto, Ken'ichi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2010-05-01

    This presentation purposes to show the results of the analysis that the AIM/CGE [Global] model contributed to Work Stream 1 of the AVOID programme. Three economic models participate in this WS to analyze the economic aspects of defined climate policies, and the AIM/CGE [Global] model is one of them. The reference scenario is SRES A1B and five policy scenarios (2016.R2.H, 2016.R4.L, 2016.R5.L, 2030.R2.H, and 2030.R5.L) are considered. The climate policies are expressed as emissions pathways of several gases such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The AIM/CGE [Global] model is a recursive dynamic global CGE model with 21 industrial sectors and 24 world regions. These definitions are based on the GTAP6 database and it is used as the economic data of the base year. Some important characteristics of this model can be summarized as follows: power generation by various sources (from non-renewables to renewables) are considered; CCS technology is modeled; biomass energy (both traditional and purpose-grown) production and consumption are included; not only CO2 emissions but also other gases are considered; international markets are modeled for international trade of some fossil fuels; relationships between the costs and resource reserves of fossil fuels are modeled. The model is run with 10-year time steps until 2100. For the reference case, there are no constraints and the model is run based on the drivers (assumptions on GDP and population for A1B) and AEEI. The reference case does not have the same emissions pathways as the prescribed emissions for A1B in AVOID. For scenario cases, the model is run under emissions constraints. In particular, for each policy scenario, the constraint on each gas in each 10-year step is derived. The percentage reduction in emissions that occurs between the AVOID A1B scenario and the particular policy scenario, for each gas in each 10-year period is first calculated, and then these percentage reductions are applied to the AIM reference case

  1. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  2. Utilization of pentoses from sugarcane biomass: techno-economics of biogas vs. butanol production.

    PubMed

    Mariano, Adriano Pinto; Dias, Marina O S; Junqueira, Tassia L; Cunha, Marcelo P; Bonomi, Antonio; Filho, Rubens Maciel

    2013-08-01

    This paper presents the techno-economics of greenfield projects of an integrated first and second-generation sugarcane biorefinery in which pentose sugars obtained from sugarcane biomass are used either for biogas (consumed internally in the power boiler) or n-butanol production via the ABE batch fermentation process. The complete sugarcane biorefinery was simulated using Aspen Plus®. Although the pentoses stream available in the sugarcane biorefinery gives room for a relatively small biobutanol plant (7.1-12 thousand tonnes per year), the introduction of butanol and acetone to the product portfolio of the biorefinery increased and diversified its revenues. Whereas the IRR of the investment on a biorefinery with biogas production is 11.3%, IRR varied between 13.1% and 15.2% in the butanol production option, depending on technology (regular or engineered microorganism with improved butanol yield and pentoses conversion) and target market (chemicals or automotive fuels). Additional discussions include the effects of energy-efficient technologies for butanol processing on the profitability of the biorefinery.

  3. Technical and economic feasibility of enzyme hydrolysis for ethanol production from wood. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hagler, R.W.; Stahr, J.J.

    1985-06-01

    Under the sponsorship of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI), Arthur D. Little, Inc., examined the feasibility of enzyme hydrolysis for ethanol production from wood. The feasibility study included a plant location in Jefferson County, New York, and the use of deproteinated cheese whey as the substrate for enzyme production. Debarked northern hardwoods were selected as feedstock for the enzyme hydrolysis operation. The preliminary process engineering design was based on a plant receiving about 450 dry tons of hardwood per day and producing about 5.5 million gallons of denatured ethanol per year. By-products included cogenerated electricity and a protein-rich animal feed. Total capital investment for the facility was estimated to be $60.575 million in 1984. Two base case cash flow analyses were carried out, one with NYSERDA input variables and one with SERI input variables. These resulted in required ethanol selling prices of $3.87 per gallon and $4.45 per gallon, respectively. Given the disparity between these predictions and the current actual price of ethanol, it was concluded that the enzyme hydrolysis of wood is not presently economic. Further research and development are also needed to resolve remaining technological uncertainties and establish markets for new products. 29 figs., 19 tabs.

  4. Environmental and economic impacts of livestock productivity increase in sub-Saharan Africa.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Luis Alfaro

    2012-12-01

    Livestock production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is not matching the annual 2.5 % growth of its population. Regional per capita meat and milk production corresponds, respectively, to about 13 and 8 % of developed countries indicators. Livestock performances in this region have decreased within the last 30 years. In fact, SSA, with a 12 % bovine extraction rate against a world average of 21 %, includes about 16 % of world cattle, only producing 6 and 2.6 % of global meat and milk, respectively. These low performances have economic and environmental consequences reflecting the necessity for upgrading livestock managing skills in the region. This effort includes various components such as sanitary prophylaxis, reproduction, nutrition, and in particular, substantial increase in livestock yield for human consumption. This will allow for an improved animal and pasture management and soil preservation, enhancing meat production and decreasing methane and nitrogen emissions from enteric fermentation and manure processing. These environmental gains due to increased livestock off-take rates can represent relevant credits in the global Environmental Carbon Market under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto protocol. These credits can be used for investments in livestock essential services and marketing facilities leading to improved productivity.

  5. Multi-scale modeling for sustainable chemical production.

    PubMed

    Zhuang, Kai; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Herrgård, Markus J

    2013-09-01

    With recent advances in metabolic engineering, it is now technically possible to produce a wide portfolio of existing petrochemical products from biomass feedstock. In recent years, a number of modeling approaches have been developed to support the engineering and decision-making processes associated with the development and implementation of a sustainable biochemical industry. The temporal and spatial scales of modeling approaches for sustainable chemical production vary greatly, ranging from metabolic models that aid the design of fermentative microbial strains to material and monetary flow models that explore the ecological impacts of all economic activities. Research efforts that attempt to connect the models at different scales have been limited. Here, we review a number of existing modeling approaches and their applications at the scales of metabolism, bioreactor, overall process, chemical industry, economy, and ecosystem. In addition, we propose a multi-scale approach for integrating the existing models into a cohesive framework. The major benefit of this proposed framework is that the design and decision-making at each scale can be informed, guided, and constrained by simulations and predictions at every other scale. In addition, the development of this multi-scale framework would promote cohesive collaborations across multiple traditionally disconnected modeling disciplines to achieve sustainable chemical production.

  6. Growth medium selection and its economic impact on plasmid DNA production.

    PubMed

    Danquah, Michael K; Forde, Gareth M

    2007-12-01

    Current developments in gene medicine and vaccination studies are utilizing plasmid DNA (pDNA) as the vector. For this reason, there has been an increasing trend towards larger and larger doses of pDNA utilized in human trials: from 100-1000 microg in 2002 to 500-5000 microg in 2005. The increasing demand of pDNA has created the need to revolutionalize current production levels under optimum economy. In this work, different standard media (LB, TB and SOC) for culturing recombinant Escherichia coli DH5alpha harbouring pUC19 were compared to a medium optimised for pDNA production. Lab scale fermentations using the standard media showed that the highest pDNA volumetric and specific yields were for TB (11.4 microg/ml and 6.3 microg/mg dry cell mass respectively) and the lowest was for LB (2.8 microg/ml and 3.3 microg/mg dry cell mass respectively). A fourth medium, PDMR, designed by modifying a stoichiometrically-formulated medium with an optimised carbon source concentration and carbon to nitrogen ratio displayed pDNA volumetric and specific yields of 23.8 microg/ml and 11.2 microg/mg dry cell mass respectively. However, it is the economic advantages of the optimised medium that makes it so attractive. Keeping all variables constant except medium and using LB as a base scenario (100 medium cost [MC] units/mg pDNA), the optimised PDMR medium yielded pDNA at a cost of only 27 MC units/mg pDNA. These results show that greater amounts of pDNA can be obtained more economically with minimal extra effort simply by using a medium optimised for pDNA production.

  7. Economic impact of stable flies (Diptera: Muscidae) on dairy and beef cattle production.

    PubMed

    Taylor, David B; Moon, Roger D; Mark, Darrell R

    2012-01-01

    Stable flies, Stomoxys calcitrans (L.), are among the most damaging arthropod pests of cattle worldwide. The last estimate of their economic impact on United States cattle production was published 20 yr ago and placed losses at $608 million. Subsequently, several studies of effects of stable flies on beef cattle weight gain and feed efficiency have been published, and stable flies have become increasingly recognized as pests of cattle on pasture and range. We analyzed published studies and developed yield-loss functions to relate stable fly infestation levels to cattle productivity, and then estimated the economic impact of stable flies on cattle production in the United States. Four industry sectors were considered: dairy, cow-calf, pastured stockers, and feeder cattle. In studies reporting stable fly infestation levels of individual herds, median annual per animal production losses were estimated to be 139 kg of milk for dairy cows, and 6, 26, and 9 kg body weight for preweanling calves, pastured stockers, and feeder cattle, respectively. The 200,000 stable flies emerging from an average sized winter hay feeding site reduce annual milk production of 50 dairy cows by an estimated 890 kg and weight gain of 50 preweanling calves, stockers, or feeder cattle by 58, 680, or 84 kg. In 2009 dollars, the value of these losses would be $254, $132, $1,279, or $154, respectively. Using cattle inventories and average prices for 2005-2009, and median monthly infestation levels, national losses are estimated to be $360 million for dairy cattle, $358 million for cow-calf herds, $1,268 million for pastured cattle, and $226 million for cattle on feed, for a total impact to U.S. cattle industries of $2,211 million per year. Excluded from these estimates are effects of stable flies on feed conversion efficiency, animal breeding success, and effects of infested cattle on pasture and water quality. Additional research on the effects of stable flies on high-production dairy cows and

  8. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison

    SciTech Connect

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann; von Lampe, Martin; Kyle, G. Page; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlik, Petr; van Meijl, Hans; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Popp, Alexander; Schmitz, Christoph; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Willenbockel, Dirk; Wise, Marshall A.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, e.g. from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an RCP2.6-type scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in an RCP8.5-type scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.

  9. Evaluation of the mathematical and economic basis for conversion processes in the LEAP energy-economy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oblow, E. M.

    1982-10-01

    An evaluation was made of the mathematical and economic basis for conversion processes in the Long-term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP) energy economy model. Conversion processes are the main modeling subunit in LEAP used to represent energy conversion industries and are supposedly based on the classical economic theory of the firm. Questions about uniqueness and existence of LEAP solutions and their relation to classical equilibrium economic theory prompted the study. An analysis of classical theory and LEAP model equations was made to determine their exact relationship. The conclusions drawn from this analysis were that LEAP theory is not consistent with the classical theory of the firm. Specifically, the capacity factor formalism used by LEAP does not support a classical interpretation in terms of a technological production function for energy conversion processes. The economic implications of this inconsistency are suboptimal process operation and short term negative profits in years where plant operation should be terminated. A new capacity factor formalism, which retains the behavioral features of the original model, is proposed to resolve these discrepancies.

  10. Reservoir Modeling for Production Management

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, Donald W.

    1989-03-21

    For both petroleum and geothermal resources, many of the reservoirs are fracture dominated--rather than matrix-permeability controlled. For such reservoirs, a knowledge of the pressure-dependent permeability of the interconnected system of natural joints (i.e., pre-existing fractures) is critical to the efficient exploitation of the resource through proper pressure management. Our experience and that reported by others indicates that a reduction in the reservoir pressure sometimes leads to an overall reduction in production rate due to the ''pinching off'' of the joint network, rather than the anticipated increase in production rate. This effect occurs not just in the vicinity of the wellbore, where proppants are sometimes employed, but throughout much of the reservoir region. This follows from the fact that under certain circumstances, the decline in fracture permeability (or conductivity) with decreasing reservoir pressure exceeds the far-field reservoir ''drainage'' flow rate increase due to the increased pressure gradient. Further, a knowledge of the pressure-dependent joint permeability could aid in designing more appropriate secondary recovery strategies in petroleum reservoirs or reinjection procedures for geothermal reservoirs.

  11. Economic and market issues on the sustainability of egg production in the United States: analysis of alternative production systems.

    PubMed

    Sumner, D A; Gow, H; Hayes, D; Matthews, W; Norwood, B; Rosen-Molina, J T; Thurman, W

    2011-01-01

    Conventional cage housing for laying hens evolved as a cost-effective egg production system. Complying with mandated hen housing alternatives would raise marginal production costs and require sizable capital investment. California data indicate that shifts from conventional cages to barn housing would likely cause farm-level cost increases of about 40% per dozen. The US data on production costs of such alternatives as furnished cages are not readily available and European data are not applicable to the US industry structure. Economic analysis relies on key facts about production and marketing of conventional and noncage eggs. Even if mandated by government or buyers, shifts to alternative housing would likely occur with lead times of at least 5 yr. Therefore, egg producers and input suppliers would have considerable time to plan new systems and build new facilities. Relatively few US consumers now pay the high retail premiums required for nonconventional eggs from hens housed in alternative systems. However, data from consumer experiments indicate that additional consumers would also be willing to pay some premium. Nonetheless, current data do not allow easy extrapolation to understand the willingness to pay for such eggs by the vast majority of conventional egg consumers. Egg consumption in the United States tends to be relatively unresponsive to price changes, such that sustained farm price increases of 40% would likely reduce consumption by less than 10%. This combination of facts and relationships suggests that, unless low-cost imports grew rapidly, requirements for higher cost hen housing systems would raise US egg prices considerably while reducing egg consumption marginally. Eggs are a low-cost source of animal protein and low-income consumers would be hardest hit. However, because egg expenditures are a very small share of the consumer budget, real income loss for consumers would be small in percentage terms. Finally, the high egg prices imposed by

  12. Environmental and economic analysis of end of life management options for an HDPE product using a life cycle thinking approach.

    PubMed

    Simões, Carla L; Pinto, Lígia M Costa; Bernardo, C A

    2014-05-01

    Manufacturers have been increasingly considering the implication of materials used in commercial products and the management of such products at the end of their useful lives (as waste or as post-consumer secondary materials). The present work describes the application of the life cycle thinking approach to a plastic product, specifically an anti-glare lamellae (used for road safety applications) made with high-density polyethylene (HDPE). This study shows that optimal environmental and economic outcomes associated with this product can be realized by recovering the material at the end of its useful life (end of life, EoL) and by using the recycled HDPE as a raw material in the production of new similar products. The study confirmed the applicability of the life cycle thinking approach by industry in sustainable products development, supporting the development of robust environmental and economic guidelines.

  13. What Geological, Economic, or Policy Forces Might Limit Fossil Fuel Production?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinberg, R.

    2015-12-01

    In order to ensure a 50% chance of keeping global temperatures from exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial levels, it has been estimated that total carbon dioxide emissions between 2011-2050 must be capped at roughly 1,100 gigatons.[1] However, some estimates calculate that global fossil fuel reserves—including unconventional oil and gas—hold at least three times this amount of potential greenhouse gas emissions.[2]What socio-political, technological, or economic forces are most likely to keep these energy resources from being burned? While it is difficult to predict with specificity what combination of technological, geological, or human factors will significantly minimize global fossil fuel production, there are at least four key potential drivers: 1. Under-investment and the economics of unconventional oil and natural gas; 2. International policy, driven by citizen demand and leadership from key nations; 3. Massive deployment of renewable energy sources and other technological solutions; and 4. Large-scale energy curtailment resulting from global economic contraction. We will explore the implications, viability, and consequences of each of these potential factors. [1] [1]United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) Report of the Conference of the Parties on its Fifteenth Session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009. Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its Fifteenth Session. United Nations Climate Change Conf. Report 43 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/11a01.pdf (UNFCC, 2009) [2] Raupach, M. R. et al. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions. Nature Clim. Chang. 4, 873-879 (2014)

  14. Restrictions on antimicrobial use in food animal production: an international regulatory and economic survey

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    . Conclusions A majority of leading U.S. trade partners have more stringent policies regarding antibiotic use and veterinary oversight in food animal production. Available data suggest that restrictions on growth promotion may not be detrimental to production in the long run, although additional research could be useful. There is evidence that discordance between the U.S. and other jurisdictions with respect to antimicrobial use in food animals may be detrimental to U.S. access to export markets for food animal products. The available economic evidence strengthens the rationale for restricting antimicrobial use in U.S. food animals. PMID:24131666

  15. An economic value of remote-sensing information—Application to agricultural production and maintaining groundwater quality

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Forney, William M.; Raunikar, Ronald P.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; Mishra, Shruti K.

    2012-01-01

    Does remote-sensing information provide economic benefits to society, and can a value be assigned to those benefits? Can resource management and policy decisions be better informed by coupling past and present Earth observations with groundwater nitrate measurements? Using an integrated assessment approach, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) applied an established conceptual framework to answer these questions, as well as to estimate the value of information (VOI) for remote-sensing imagery. The approach uses moderate-resolution land-imagery (MRLI) data from the Landsat and Advanced Wide Field Sensor satellites that has been classified by the National Agricultural Statistics Service into the Cropland Data Layer (CDL). Within the constraint of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's public health threshold for potable groundwater resources, the USGS modeled the relation between a population of the CDL's land uses and dynamic nitrate (NO3-) contamination of aquifers in a case study region in northeastern Iowa. Employing various multiscaled, multitemporal geospatial datasets with MRLI to maximize the value of agricultural production, the approach develops and uses multiple environmental science models to address dynamic nitrogen loading and transport at specified distances from specific sites (wells) and at landscape scales (for example, across 35 counties and two aquifers). In addition to the ecosystem service of potable groundwater, this effort focuses on the use of MRLI for the management of the major land uses in the study region-the production of corn and soybeans, which can impact groundwater quality. Derived methods and results include (1) economic and dynamic nitrate-pollution models, (2) probabilities of the survival of groundwater, and (3) a VOI for remote sensing. For the northeastern Iowa study region, the marginal benefit of the MRLI VOI (in 2010 dollars) is $858 million ±$197 million annualized, which corresponds to a net present value of $38

  16. 48 CFR 252.216-7000 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. 252.216-7000 Section 252.216-7000 Federal... adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. As prescribed in 216.203-4-70(a)(1), use the following clause: Economic Price Adjustment—Basic Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or...

  17. 48 CFR 252.216-7000 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. 252.216-7000 Section 252.216-7000 Federal... adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. As prescribed in 216.203-4-70(a), use the following clause: Economic Price Adjustment—Basic Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or...

  18. 48 CFR 252.216-7000 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. 252.216-7000 Section 252.216-7000 Federal... adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. As prescribed in 216.203-4-70(a), use the following clause: Economic Price Adjustment—Basic Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or...

  19. 48 CFR 252.216-7007 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products-representation. 252.216-7007 Section 252....216-7007 Economic price adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products... Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or Copper Mill Products—Representation (MAR 2012) (a) Definitions....

  20. 48 CFR 252.216-7000 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. 252.216-7000 Section 252.216-7000 Federal... adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. As prescribed in 216.203-4-70(a)(1), use the following clause: Economic Price Adjustment—Basic Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or...

  1. 48 CFR 252.216-7007 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products-representation. 252.216-7007 Section 252....216-7007 Economic price adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products... Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or Copper Mill Products—Representation (MAR 2012) (a) Definitions....

  2. 48 CFR 252.216-7000 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. 252.216-7000 Section 252.216-7000 Federal... adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products. As prescribed in 216.203-4-70(a)(1), use the following clause: Economic Price Adjustment—Basic Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or...

  3. 48 CFR 252.216-7007 - Economic price adjustment-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...-basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products-representation. 252.216-7007 Section 252....216-7007 Economic price adjustment—basic steel, aluminum, brass, bronze, or copper mill products... Steel, Aluminum, Brass, Bronze, or Copper Mill Products—Representation (MAR 2012) (a) Definitions....

  4. Process design and economic analysis of a citrus waste biorefinery with biofuels and limonene as products.

    PubMed

    Lohrasbi, Mehdi; Pourbafrani, Mohammad; Niklasson, Claes; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J

    2010-10-01

    Process design and economic analysis of a biorefinery for the treatment of citrus wastes (CW) at different capacities was carried out. The CW is hydrolyzed using dilute sulfuric acid and then further processed to produce limonene, ethanol and biogas. The total cost of ethanol for base case process with 100,000 tons/year CW capacity was calculated as 0.91 USD/L, assuming 10 USD/ton handling and transportation cost of CW to the plant. However, this price is sensitive to the plant capacity. With constant price of methane and limonene, changing the plant capacity from 25,000 to 400,000 tons CW per year results in reducing ethanol costs from 2.55 to 0.46 USD/L in an economically feasible process. In addition, the ethanol production cost is sensitive to the transportation cost of CW. Increasing this cost from 10 to 30 USD/ton for the base case results in increasing the ethanol costs from 0.91 to 1.42 USD/L.

  5. Economic Impact of the Introduction and Establishment of Drosophila suzukii on Sweet Cherry Production in Switzerland

    PubMed Central

    Mazzi, Dominique; Bravin, Esther; Meraner, Manuela; Finger, Robert; Kuske, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    First detected in Switzerland in 2011, the invasive Drosophila suzukii, spotted wing drosophila, has caused recurring costs for growers of berries and fruit. Recommended management approaches rely on a set of methods, tailored to suit crop requirements under the prevailing local conditions. Control of D. suzukii represents a substantial economic burden for growers, in terms of material, equipment, new infrastructure and extra labour. However, those growers who invest wisely to deliver unblemished produce are rewarded with high payoffs. We present insights from a growers’ survey conducted in 2015 and 2016 to gauge the impact of the introduction and establishment of D. suzukii on Swiss sweet cherry production. The surveyed growers (111 in 2015 and 298 in 2016) observed the recommended surveillance, sanitation and control measures. The use of insecticides (78% and 79% of respondents in 2015 and 2016, respectively) and the harvest of all fruits (93% and 59% of respondents in 2015 and 2016, respectively) were the most widespread methods used to reduce damage. Nearly one-third of the respondents set up enclosure nets. Our economic evaluation of different scenarios provides a quantitative indication of the potentially incurred costs. We argue for enhanced stakeholder involvement to raise the acceptance of integrated pest management practices, and to inform research and outreach by providing insights into the motivations and barriers to adoption. PMID:28208692

  6. Economic impact of decreasing stocking densities in broiler production in Belgium.

    PubMed

    Verspecht, A; Vanhonacker, F; Verbeke, W; Zoons, J; Van Huylenbroeck, G

    2011-08-01

    Stocking density is a prominent topic in public debates on animal welfare and was one of the reasons for the European Commission to set limits to the stocking density on broiler farms. The objective of this paper was to calculate in detail the financial impact of changes in technical and management variables due to decreasing stocking densities in line with new European Union (EU) regulations. Therefore, the productive performance indicators such as BW, mortality, or feed conversion and farm technical data such as water consumption and heating of 3 independent experiments conducted at a poultry research station in Flanders (Belgium) were combined. Using the partial budget technique only those elements that change with stocking density have been taken into account. Reducing stocking density implies a recalculation of all costs on a reduced number of birds. This yields an economic situation that leaves hardly any profit margin for most of the broiler producers under the present market conditions. It was found that the critical threshold of stocking density for maintaining profitability under the present market and technical conditions is around 46 kg/m(2), thus well above the EU maximum of 42 kg/m(2). It is shown, however, that with changing broiler feed and meat prices, the impact might be less negative in economic terms.

  7. Economic Impact of the Introduction and Establishment of Drosophila suzukii on Sweet Cherry Production in Switzerland.

    PubMed

    Mazzi, Dominique; Bravin, Esther; Meraner, Manuela; Finger, Robert; Kuske, Stefan

    2017-02-08

    First detected in Switzerland in 2011, the invasive Drosophila suzukii, spotted wing drosophila, has caused recurring costs for growers of berries and fruit. Recommended management approaches rely on a set of methods, tailored to suit crop requirements under the prevailing local conditions. Control of D. suzukii represents a substantial economic burden for growers, in terms of material, equipment, new infrastructure and extra labour. However, those growers who invest wisely to deliver unblemished produce are rewarded with high payoffs. We present insights from a growers' survey conducted in 2015 and 2016 to gauge the impact of the introduction and establishment of D. suzukii on Swiss sweet cherry production. The surveyed growers (111 in 2015 and 298 in 2016) observed the recommended surveillance, sanitation and control measures. The use of insecticides (78% and 79% of respondents in 2015 and 2016, respectively) and the harvest of all fruits (93% and 59% of respondents in 2015 and 2016, respectively) were the most widespread methods used to reduce damage. Nearly one-third of the respondents set up enclosure nets. Our economic evaluation of different scenarios provides a quantitative indication of the potentially incurred costs. We argue for enhanced stakeholder involvement to raise the acceptance of integrated pest management practices, and to inform research and outreach by providing insights into the motivations and barriers to adoption.

  8. Techno-economic comparison of biojet fuel production from lignocellulose, vegetable oil and sugar cane juice.

    PubMed

    Diederichs, Gabriel Wilhelm; Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

    2016-09-01

    In this study, a techno-economic comparison was performed considering three processes (thermochemical, biochemical and hybrid) for production of jet fuel from lignocellulosic biomass (2G) versus two processes from first generation (1G) feedstocks, including vegetable oil and sugar cane juice. Mass and energy balances were constructed for energy self-sufficient versions of these processes, not utilising any fossil energy sources, using ASPEN Plus® simulations. All of the investigated processes obtained base minimum jet selling prices (MJSP) that is substantially higher than the market jet fuel price (2-4 fold). The 1G process which converts vegetable oil, obtained the lowest MJSPs of $2.22/kg jet fuel while the two most promising 2G processes- the thermochemical (gasification and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis) and hybrid (gasification and biochemical upgrading) processes- reached MJSPs of $2.44/kg and $2.50/kg jet fuel, respectively. According to the economic sensitivity analysis, the feedstock cost and fixed capital investment have the most influence on the MJSP.

  9. Productivity in physical and chemical science predicts the future economic growth of developing countries better than other popular indices.

    PubMed

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences.

  10. Productivity in Physical and Chemical Science Predicts the Future Economic Growth of Developing Countries Better than Other Popular Indices

    PubMed Central

    Jaffe, Klaus; Caicedo, Mario; Manzanares, Marcos; Gil, Mario; Rios, Alfredo; Florez, Astrid; Montoreano, Claudia; Davila, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Scientific productivity of middle income countries correlates stronger with present and future wealth than indices reflecting its financial, social, economic or technological sophistication. We identify the contribution of the relative productivity of different scientific disciplines in predicting the future economic growth of a nation. Results show that rich and poor countries differ in the relative proportion of their scientific output in the different disciplines: countries with higher relative productivity in basic sciences such as physics and chemistry had the highest economic growth in the following five years compared to countries with a higher relative productivity in applied sciences such as medicine and pharmacy. Results suggest that the economies of middle income countries that focus their academic efforts in selected areas of applied knowledge grow slower than countries which invest in general basic sciences. PMID:23776640

  11. Economic Impact of NMMO Pretreatment on Ethanol and Biogas Production from Pinewood

    PubMed Central

    Zilouei, Hamid; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J.

    2014-01-01

    Processes for ethanol and biogas (scenario 1) and biomethane (scenario 2) production from pinewood improved by N-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO) pretreatment were developed and simulated by Aspen plus. These processes were compared with two processes using steam explosion instead of NMMO pretreatment ethanol (scenario 3) and biomethane (scenario 4) production, and the economies of all processes were evaluated by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Gasoline equivalent prices of the products including 25% value added tax (VAT) and selling and distribution expenses for scenarios 1 to 4 were, respectively, 1.40, 1.20, 1.24, and 1.04 €/l, which are lower than gasoline price. The profitability indexes for scenarios 1 to 4 were 1.14, 0.93, 1.16, and 0.96, respectively. Despite the lower manufacturing costs of biomethane, the profitability indexes of these processes were lower than those of the bioethanol processes, because of higher capital requirements. The results showed that taxing rule is an effective parameter on the economy of the biofuels. The gasoline equivalent prices of the biofuels were 15–37% lower than gasoline; however, 37% of the gasoline price contributes to energy and carbon dioxide tax which are not included in the prices of biofuels based on the Swedish taxation rules. PMID:25276777

  12. Process design and economic analysis of a hypothetical bioethanol production plant using carob pod as feedstock.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Segado, S; Lozano, L J; de Los Ríos, A P; Hernández-Fernández, F J; Godínez, C; Juan, D

    2012-01-01

    A process for the production of ethanol from carob (Ceratonia siliqua) pods was designed and an economic analysis was carried out for a hypothetical plant. The plant was assumed to perform an aqueous extraction of sugars from the pods followed by fermentation and distillation to produce ethanol. The total fixed capital investment for a base case process with a capacity to transform 68,000 t/year carob pod was calculated as 39.61 millon euros (€) with a minimum bioethanol production cost of 0.51 €/L and an internal rate of return of 7%. The plant was found to be profitable at carob pod prices lower than 0.188 €/kg. An increase in the transformation capacity of the plant from 33,880 to 135,450 t/year was calculated to result in an increase in the internal rate of return from 5.50% to 13.61%. The obtained results show that carob pod is a promising alternative source for bioethanol production.

  13. Economic impact of NMMO pretreatment on ethanol and biogas production from pinewood.

    PubMed

    Shafiei, Marzieh; Karimi, Keikhosro; Zilouei, Hamid; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J

    2014-01-01

    Processes for ethanol and biogas (scenario 1) and biomethane (scenario 2) production from pinewood improved by N-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO) pretreatment were developed and simulated by Aspen plus. These processes were compared with two processes using steam explosion instead of NMMO pretreatment ethanol (scenario 3) and biomethane (scenario 4) production, and the economies of all processes were evaluated by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Gasoline equivalent prices of the products including 25% value added tax (VAT) and selling and distribution expenses for scenarios 1 to 4 were, respectively, 1.40, 1.20, 1.24, and 1.04 €/l, which are lower than gasoline price. The profitability indexes for scenarios 1 to 4 were 1.14, 0.93, 1.16, and 0.96, respectively. Despite the lower manufacturing costs of biomethane, the profitability indexes of these processes were lower than those of the bioethanol processes, because of higher capital requirements. The results showed that taxing rule is an effective parameter on the economy of the biofuels. The gasoline equivalent prices of the biofuels were 15-37% lower than gasoline; however, 37% of the gasoline price contributes to energy and carbon dioxide tax which are not included in the prices of biofuels based on the Swedish taxation rules.

  14. Modeling and managing the interactions between hydrology, ecology and economics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loucks, Daniel P.

    2006-09-01

    SummaryThis paper outlines a seven-step planning process being implemented on two large river basin studies currently underway in North America. One study involves the management of lake levels and flows in Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River on the border between Canada and the US. The International Joint Commission that oversees all water management issues between these two countries supports this study. The other involves the Greater Everglades region in south Florida in the US. In both studies multiple agencies and multiple stakeholders are involved in an attempt to find better ways of meeting multiple economic, environmental and ecological objectives. Both studies were motivated by the desire to find ways of improving the habitat of ecosystems within their basins and at the same time providing no less, or if possible greater, economic and social benefits that are derived from reliable water supplies, flows, levels, and flood protection. The seven-step planning process attempts to provide a very transparent and fully participatory approach toward reaching a common vision among all agencies and stakeholders as to how their hydrological system can be adaptively managed to better meet current and future objectives. This paper presents the seven steps and focuses on how all the values of various objectives are being defined and considered, together, in an attempt to define what water management policy works best and to an agreement on just what is 'best'.

  15. Strategies for efficient and economical 2,3-butanediol production: new trends in this field.

    PubMed

    Białkowska, Aneta M

    2016-12-01

    2,3-Butanediol (2,3-BD) is a promising bulk chemical with a potentially wide range of applications e.g., in the manufacture of printing inks, perfumes, synthetic rubber, fumigants, antifreeze agents, fuel additives, foodstuffs and pharmaceuticals. Its high heating value and ability to increase the octane number of fuels make 2,3-BD a promising drop-in fuel. It can also be converted to methyl-ethyl ketone (MEK), which is considered an effective liquid fuel additive. After combination with MEK and hydrogenation reaction, 2,3-BD can be converted to octane, which is used to produce high-quality aviation fuel. Currently 2,3-BD is mainly produced on an industrial scale by chemical methods. However, microbiological production of 2,3-BD offers a less expensive and more environmentally friendly alternative to traditional synthesis. This alcohol is generated from hexoses and pentoses mainly by bacterial strains of the genera Klebsiella, Bacillus, Serratia, and Enterobacter, which can convert waste products (such as glycerol and agricultural residues) and excess biomass (such as wood hydrolysates) to 2,3-BD. Recently, a significant improvement in microbial production has been achieved by the screening of efficient natural microbial strains, the application of alternative cost-effective substrates, and the genetic improvement of microbial producers. Furthermore, Klebsiella strains, which are regarded the most efficient natural 2,3-BD producers, have been subjected to genetic modifications aiming at the removal of pathogenic factors and the development of avirulent strains that could be used for the safe production of the diol. This review summarizes existing knowledge and experience concerning various strategies for efficient and economical microbial production of 2,3-BD.

  16. Restructuring upstream bioprocessing: technological and economical aspects for production of a generic microbial feedstock from wheat.

    PubMed

    Koutinas, A A; Wang, R; Webb, C

    2004-03-05

    Restructuring and optimization of the conventional fermentation industry for fuel and chemical production is necessary to replace petrochemical production routes. Guided by this concept, a novel biorefinery process has been developed as an alternative to conventional upstream processing routes, leading to the production of a generic fermentation feedstock from wheat. The robustness of Aspergillus awamori as enzyme producer is exploited in a continuous fungal fermentation on whole wheat flour. Vital gluten is extracted as an added-value byproduct by the conventional Martin process from a fraction of the overall wheat used. Enzymatic hydrolysis of gluten-free flour by the enzyme complex produced by A. awamori during fermentation produces a liquid stream rich in glucose (320 g/L). Autolysis of fungal cells produces a micronutrient-rich solution similar to yeast extract (1.6 g/L nitrogen, 0.5 g/L phosphorus). The case-specific combination of these two liquid streams can provide a nutrient-complete fermentation medium for a spectrum of microbial bioconversions for the production of such chemicals as organic acids, amino acids, bioethanol, glycerol, solvents, and microbial biodegradable plastics. Preliminary economic analysis has shown that the operating cost required to produce the feedstock is dependent on the plant capacity, cereal market price, presence and market value of added-value byproducts, labor costs, and mode of processing (batch or continuous). Integration of this process in an existing fermentation plant could lead to the production of a generic feedstock at an operating cost lower than the market price of glucose syrup (90% to 99% glucose) in the EU, provided that the plant capacity exceeds 410 m(3)/day. Further process improvements are also suggested.

  17. Ethanol production from industrial hemp: effect of combined dilute acid/steam pretreatment and economic aspects.

    PubMed

    Kuglarz, Mariusz; Gunnarsson, Ingólfur B; Svensson, Sven-Erik; Prade, Thomas; Johansson, Eva; Angelidaki, Irini

    2014-07-01

    In the present study, combined steam (140-180°C) and dilute-acid pre-hydrolysis (0.0-2.0%) were applied to industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa L.), as pretreatment for lignocellulosic bioethanol production. The influence of the pretreatment conditions and cultivation type on the hydrolysis and ethanol yields was also evaluated. Pretreatment with 1% sulfuric acid at 180°C resulted in the highest glucose yield (73-74%) and ethanol yield of 75-79% (0.38-0.40 g-ethanol/g-glucose). Taking into account the costs of biomass processing, from field to ethanol facility storage, the field-dried hemp pretreated at the optimal conditions showed positive economic results. The type of hemp cultivation (organic or conventional) did not influence significantly the effectiveness of the pretreatment as well as subsequent enzymatic hydrolysis and ethanol fermentation.

  18. Regional Economic Development Impact Model: Phase I Study.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-11-01

    A multiregional variable input-output (MRVIO) model is introduced to investigate the impact of a change in transportation costs on regional development and trade flows. The MRVIO model is a theoretically well-founded, practically useful, and policy sensitive model. The regional technical coefficients and the trade coefficients are endogenous variables to the MRVIO model. These coefficients are sensitive to the transportation costs as...transportation cost stimulates the regional development . However, its sensitivity differs among industries. (Author)

  19. Central exclusive production and the Durham model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harland-Lang, L. A.; Khoze, V. A.; Ryskin, M. G.

    2014-11-01

    We review some selected results within the Durham model of central exclusive production. We discuss the theoretical aspects of this approach and consider the phenomenological implications for a selection of processes.

  20. Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: a hydro-economic modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo; Purkey, David R

    2013-10-15

    Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD's goal of restoring the 'good ecological status' of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute

  1. Links between fluid mechanics and quantum mechanics: a model for information in economics?

    PubMed

    Haven, Emmanuel

    2016-05-28

    This paper tallies the links between fluid mechanics and quantum mechanics, and attempts to show whether those links can aid in beginning to build a formal template which is usable in economics models where time is (a)symmetric and memory is absent or present. An objective of this paper is to contemplate whether those formalisms can allow us to model information in economics in a novel way.

  2. Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model: Offshore Wind User Reference Guide

    SciTech Connect

    Lantz, E.; Goldberg, M.; Keyser, D.

    2013-06-01

    The Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model, developed by NREL and MRG & Associates, is a spreadsheet based input-output tool. JEDI is meant to be a user friendly and transparent tool to estimate potential economic impacts supported by the development and operation of offshore wind projects. This guide describes how to use the model as well as technical information such as methodology, limitations, and data sources.

  3. Modeling Fission Product Sorption in Graphite Structures

    SciTech Connect

    Szlufarska, Izabela; Morgan, Dane; Allen, Todd

    2013-04-08

    The goal of this project is to determine changes in adsorption and desorption of fission products to/from nuclear-grade graphite in response to a changing chemical environment. First, the project team will employ principle calculations and thermodynamic analysis to predict stability of fission products on graphite in the presence of structural defects commonly observed in very high- temperature reactor (VHTR) graphites. Desorption rates will be determined as a function of partial pressure of oxygen and iodine, relative humidity, and temperature. They will then carry out experimental characterization to determine the statistical distribution of structural features. This structural information will yield distributions of binding sites to be used as an input for a sorption model. Sorption isotherms calculated under this project will contribute to understanding of the physical bases of the source terms that are used in higher-level codes that model fission product transport and retention in graphite. The project will include the following tasks: Perform structural characterization of the VHTR graphite to determine crystallographic phases, defect structures and their distribution, volume fraction of coke, and amount of sp2 versus sp3 bonding. This information will be used as guidance for ab initio modeling and as input for sorptivity models; Perform ab initio calculations of binding energies to determine stability of fission products on the different sorption sites present in nuclear graphite microstructures. The project will use density functional theory (DFT) methods to calculate binding energies in vacuum and in oxidizing environments. The team will also calculate stability of iodine complexes with fission products on graphite sorption sites; Model graphite sorption isotherms to quantify concentration of fission products in graphite. The binding energies will be combined with a Langmuir isotherm statistical model to predict the sorbed concentration of fission

  4. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    2015-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL’s researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects.

  5. Simulating Quantile Models with Applications to Economics and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machado, José A. F.

    2010-05-01

    The massive increase in the speed of computers over the past forty years changed the way that social scientists, applied economists and statisticians approach their trades and also the very nature of the problems that they could feasibly tackle. The new methods that use intensively computer power go by the names of "computer-intensive" or "simulation". My lecture will start with bird's eye view of the uses of simulation in Economics and Statistics. Then I will turn out to my own research on uses of computer- intensive methods. From a methodological point of view the question I address is how to infer marginal distributions having estimated a conditional quantile process, (Counterfactual Decomposition of Changes in Wage Distributions using Quantile Regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005). Illustrations will be provided of the use of the method to perform counterfactual analysis in several different areas of knowledge.

  6. Economic analysis

    SciTech Connect

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  7. Estimation of Economic Impacts of Cellulosic Biofuel Production: A Comparative Analysis of Three Biofuel Pathways

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yimin; Goldberg, Marshall; Tan, Eric; Meyer, Pimphan Aye

    2016-05-01

    The development of a cellulosic biofuel industry utilizing domestic biomass resources is expected to create opportunities for economic growth resulting from the construction and operation of new biorefineries. We applied an economic input-output model to estimate potential economic impacts, particularly gross job growth, resulting from the construction and operation of biorefineries using three different technology pathways: (i) cellulosic ethanol via biochemical conversion in Iowa, (ii) renewable diesel blendstock via biological conversion in Georgia, and (iii) renewable diesel and gasoline blendstock via fast pyrolysis in Mississippi. Combining direct, indirect (revenue- and supply-chain-related), and induced effects, capital investment associated with the construction of a biorefinery processing 2000 dry metric tons of biomass per day (DMT/day) could yield between 5960 and 8470 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs during the construction period, depending on the biofuel pathways. Fast pyrolysis biorefineries produce the most jobs on a project level thanks to the highest capital requirement among the three pathways. Normalized on the scale of $1 million of capital investment, the fast pyrolysis biorefineries are estimated to yield slighter higher numbers of jobs (12.1 jobs) than the renewable diesel (11.8 jobs) and the cellulosic ethanol (11.6 jobs) biorefineries. While operating biorefineries is not labor-intensive, the annual operation of a 2000 DMT/day biorefinery could support between 720 and 970 jobs when the direct, indirect, and induced effects are considered. The major factor, which results in the variations among the three pathways, is the type of biomass feedstock used for biofuels. Unlike construction jobs, these operation-related jobs are necessary over the entire life of the biorefineries. Our results show that indirect effects stimulated by the operation of biorefineries are the primary contributor to job growth. The agriculture/forest, services, and

  8. Estimation of economic impacts of cellulosic biofuel production: a comparative analysis of three biofuel pathways

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Yimin; Goldberg, Marshall; Tan, Eric; Meyer, Pimphan Aye

    2016-03-07

    The development of a cellulosic biofuel industry utilizing domestic biomass resources is expected to create opportunities for economic growth resulting from the construction and operation of new biorefineries. We applied an economic input-output model to estimate potential economic impacts, particularly gross job growth, resulting from the construction and operation of biorefineries using three different technology pathways: (i) cellulosic ethanol via biochemical conversion in Iowa, (ii) renewable diesel blendstock via biological conversion in Georgia, and (iii) renewable diesel and gasoline blendstock via fast pyrolysis in Mississippi. Combining direct, indirect (revenue- and supply-chain-related), and induced effects, capital investment associated with the construction of a biorefinery processing 2000 dry metric tons of biomass per day (DMT/day) could yield between 5960 and 8470 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs during the construction period, depending on the biofuel pathways. Fast pyrolysis biorefineries produce the most jobs on a project level thanks to the highest capital requirement among the three pathways. Normalized on the scale of $1 million of capital investment, the fast pyrolysis biorefineries are estimated to yield slighter higher numbers of jobs (12.1 jobs) than the renewable diesel (11.8 jobs) and the cellulosic ethanol (11.6 jobs) biorefineries. While operating biorefineries is not labor-intensive, the annual operation of a 2000 DMT/day biorefinery could support between 720 and 970 jobs when the direct, indirect, and induced effects are considered. The major factor, which results in the variations among the three pathways, is the type of biomass feedstock used for biofuels. Unlike construction jobs, these operation-related jobs are necessary over the entire life of the biorefineries. In conclusion, our results show that indirect effects stimulated by the operation of biorefineries are the primary contributor to job growth. The agriculture

  9. Estimation of economic impacts of cellulosic biofuel production: a comparative analysis of three biofuel pathways

    DOE PAGES

    Zhang, Yimin; Goldberg, Marshall; Tan, Eric; ...

    2016-03-07

    The development of a cellulosic biofuel industry utilizing domestic biomass resources is expected to create opportunities for economic growth resulting from the construction and operation of new biorefineries. We applied an economic input-output model to estimate potential economic impacts, particularly gross job growth, resulting from the construction and operation of biorefineries using three different technology pathways: (i) cellulosic ethanol via biochemical conversion in Iowa, (ii) renewable diesel blendstock via biological conversion in Georgia, and (iii) renewable diesel and gasoline blendstock via fast pyrolysis in Mississippi. Combining direct, indirect (revenue- and supply-chain-related), and induced effects, capital investment associated with the constructionmore » of a biorefinery processing 2000 dry metric tons of biomass per day (DMT/day) could yield between 5960 and 8470 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs during the construction period, depending on the biofuel pathways. Fast pyrolysis biorefineries produce the most jobs on a project level thanks to the highest capital requirement among the three pathways. Normalized on the scale of $1 million of capital investment, the fast pyrolysis biorefineries are estimated to yield slighter higher numbers of jobs (12.1 jobs) than the renewable diesel (11.8 jobs) and the cellulosic ethanol (11.6 jobs) biorefineries. While operating biorefineries is not labor-intensive, the annual operation of a 2000 DMT/day biorefinery could support between 720 and 970 jobs when the direct, indirect, and induced effects are considered. The major factor, which results in the variations among the three pathways, is the type of biomass feedstock used for biofuels. Unlike construction jobs, these operation-related jobs are necessary over the entire life of the biorefineries. In conclusion, our results show that indirect effects stimulated by the operation of biorefineries are the primary contributor to job growth. The agriculture

  10. Wheat forecast economics effect study. [value of improved information on crop inventories, production, imports and exports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mehra, R. K.; Rouhani, R.; Jones, S.; Schick, I.

    1980-01-01

    A model to assess the value of improved information regarding the inventories, productions, exports, and imports of crop on a worldwide basis is discussed. A previously proposed model is interpreted in a stochastic control setting and the underlying assumptions of the model are revealed. In solving the stochastic optimization problem, the Markov programming approach is much more powerful and exact as compared to the dynamic programming-simulation approach of the original model. The convergence of a dual variable Markov programming algorithm is shown to be fast and efficient. A computer program for the general model of multicountry-multiperiod is developed. As an example, the case of one country-two periods is treated and the results are presented in detail. A comparison with the original model results reveals certain interesting aspects of the algorithms and the dependence of the value of information on the incremental cost function.

  11. A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

    PubMed

    Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

    2015-06-19

    Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

  12. Modelling the economics of gaming in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Barr, Graham; Standish, Barry

    2002-01-01

    This paper considers the application of two models for determining the optimal location and characteristics of a casino in a post-apartheid South Africa. The intention in developing the models was to allow provinces a facility for considering how to maximize the return to the stakeholders in the license award process, namely society at large, as represented by the provincial government, and the casino operator. The Allocation Model works on an estimate of total potential gambling spend and how that may be best distributed amongst a number of casinos. The Profitability model takes the estimated gaming spend from the allocation model and assesses the appropriate size and characteristics of the casino best suited to this level of gaming spend. It can then simulate levels of profitability for different proposed sizes and characteristics of proposed casinos. Together these models represent a powerful assessment mechanism for a country considering the introduction or radical changing of gaming legislation.

  13. Techno-economic analysis of a conceptual biofuel production process from bioethylene produced by photosynthetic recombinant cyanobacteria

    SciTech Connect

    Markham, Jennifer N.; Tao, Ling; Davis, Ryan; Voulis, Nina; Angenent, Largus T.; Ungerer, Justin; Yu, Jianping

    2016-08-25

    Ethylene is a petrochemical produced in large volumes worldwide. It serves as a building block for a wide variety of plastics, textiles, and chemicals, and can be converted into liquid transportation fuels. There is great interest in the development of technologies that produce ethylene from renewable resources, such as biologically derived CO2 and biomass. One of the metabolic pathways used by microbes to produce ethylene is via an ethylene-forming enzyme (EFE). By expressing a bacterial EFE gene in a cyanobacterium, ethylene has been produced through photosynthetic carbon fixation. Here, we present a conceptual design and techno-economic analysis of a process of biofuel production based on the upgradation of ethylene generated by the recombinant cyanobacterium. This analysis focuses on potential near-term to long-term cost projections for the integrated process of renewable fuels derived from ethylene. The cost projections are important in showing the potential of this technology and determining research thrusts needed to reach target goals. The base case for this analysis is a midterm projection using tubular photobioreactors for cyanobacterial growth and ethylene production, cryogenic distillation for ethylene separation and purification, a two-step Ziegler oligomerization process with subsequent hydrotreatment and upgradation for fuel production, and a wastewater treatment process that utilizes anaerobic digestion of cyanobacterial biomass. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) for the midterm projection is 15.07 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE). Near-term and long-term projections are 28.66 per GGE and 5.36 per GGE, respectively. Single- and multi-point sensitivity analyses are conducted to determine the relative effect that chosen variables could have on the overall costs. This analysis identifies several key variables for improving the overall process economics and outlines strategies to guide future research directions. Finally, the

  14. Techno-economic analysis of a conceptual biofuel production process from bioethylene produced by photosynthetic recombinant cyanobacteria

    SciTech Connect

    Markham, Jennifer N.; Tao, Ling; Davis, Ryan; Voulis, Nina; Angenent, Largus T.; Ungerer, Justin; Yu, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    Ethylene is a petrochemical produced in large volumes worldwide. It serves as a building block for a wide variety of plastics, textiles, and chemicals, and can be converted into liquid transportation fuels. There is great interest in the development of technologies that produce ethylene from renewable resources, such as biologically derived CO2 and biomass. One of the metabolic pathways used by microbes to produce ethylene is via an ethylene-forming enzyme (EFE). By expressing a bacterial EFE gene in a cyanobacterium, ethylene has been produced through photosynthetic carbon fixation. Here, we present a conceptual design and techno-economic analysis of a process of biofuel production based on the upgradation of ethylene generated by the recombinant cyanobacterium. This analysis focuses on potential near-term to long-term cost projections for the integrated process of renewable fuels derived from ethylene. The cost projections are important in showing the potential of this technology and determining research thrusts needed to reach target goals. The base case for this analysis is a midterm projection using tubular photobioreactors for cyanobacterial growth and ethylene production, cryogenic distillation for ethylene separation and purification, a two-step Ziegler oligomerization process with subsequent hydrotreatment and upgradation for fuel production, and a wastewater treatment process that utilizes anaerobic digestion of cyanobacterial biomass. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) for the midterm projection is $15.07 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE). Near-term and long-term projections are $28.66 per GGE and $5.36 per GGE, respectively. Single- and multi-point sensitivity analyses are conducted to determine the relative effect that chosen variables could have on the overall costs. This analysis identifies several key variables for improving the overall process economics and outlines strategies to guide future research directions. The productivity of ethylene

  15. Techno-economic analysis of a conceptual biofuel production process from bioethylene produced by photosynthetic recombinant cyanobacteria

    DOE PAGES

    Markham, Jennifer N.; Tao, Ling; Davis, Ryan; ...

    2016-08-25

    Ethylene is a petrochemical produced in large volumes worldwide. It serves as a building block for a wide variety of plastics, textiles, and chemicals, and can be converted into liquid transportation fuels. There is great interest in the development of technologies that produce ethylene from renewable resources, such as biologically derived CO2 and biomass. One of the metabolic pathways used by microbes to produce ethylene is via an ethylene-forming enzyme (EFE). By expressing a bacterial EFE gene in a cyanobacterium, ethylene has been produced through photosynthetic carbon fixation. Here, we present a conceptual design and techno-economic analysis of a processmore » of biofuel production based on the upgradation of ethylene generated by the recombinant cyanobacterium. This analysis focuses on potential near-term to long-term cost projections for the integrated process of renewable fuels derived from ethylene. The cost projections are important in showing the potential of this technology and determining research thrusts needed to reach target goals. The base case for this analysis is a midterm projection using tubular photobioreactors for cyanobacterial growth and ethylene production, cryogenic distillation for ethylene separation and purification, a two-step Ziegler oligomerization process with subsequent hydrotreatment and upgradation for fuel production, and a wastewater treatment process that utilizes anaerobic digestion of cyanobacterial biomass. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) for the midterm projection is 15.07 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE). Near-term and long-term projections are 28.66 per GGE and 5.36 per GGE, respectively. Single- and multi-point sensitivity analyses are conducted to determine the relative effect that chosen variables could have on the overall costs. This analysis identifies several key variables for improving the overall process economics and outlines strategies to guide future research directions. Finally, the

  16. Fast Growing Plantations for Wood Production – Integration of Ecological Effects and Economic Perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Bredemeier, Michael; Busch, Gerald; Hartmann, Linda; Jansen, Martin; Richter, Falk; Lamersdorf, Norbert P.

    2015-01-01

    Biomass crops are perceived as a feasible means to substitute sizeable amounts of fossil fuel in the future. A prospect of CO2 reduction (resp. CO2 neutrality) is credited to biomass fuels, and thus a potential contribution to mitigate climate change. Short rotation coppices (SRCs) with fast growing poplar and willow trees are an option for producing high yields of woody biomass, which is suitable for both energetic and material use. One negative effect that comes along with the establishment of SRC may be a decrease in groundwater recharge, because high rates of transpiration and interception are anticipated. Therefore, it is important to measure, analyze, and model the effects of SRC-planting on landscape water budgets. To analyze the effects on the water budget, a poplar SRC plot was studied by measuring hydrological parameters to be used in the hydrological model WaSim. Results reveal very low or even missing ground water recharge for SRC compared to agricultural land use or grassland, especially succeeding dry years. However, this strong effect on plot level is moderated on the larger spatial scale of catchment level, for which the modeling was also performed. In addition to water, nutrient fluxes and budgets were studied. Nitrogen is still a crucial issue in today’s agriculture. Intensive fertilization or increased applications of manure from concentrated livestock breeding are often leading to high loads of nitrate leaching, or enhanced N2O emissions to the atmosphere on arable crop fields. SRC or agroforestry systems on former crop land may offer an option to decrease such N losses, while simultaneously producing woody biomass. This is mainly due to the generally smaller N requirements of woody vegetation, which usually entail no need for any fertilization. The trees supply deep and permanent rooting systems, which can be regarded as a “safety net” to prevent nutrient leaching. Thus, SRC altogether can help to diminish N eutrophication. It is

  17. Fast Growing Plantations for Wood Production - Integration of Ecological Effects and Economic Perspectives.

    PubMed

    Bredemeier, Michael; Busch, Gerald; Hartmann, Linda; Jansen, Martin; Richter, Falk; Lamersdorf, Norbert P

    2015-01-01

    Biomass crops are perceived as a feasible means to substitute sizeable amounts of fossil fuel in the future. A prospect of CO2 reduction (resp. CO2 neutrality) is credited to biomass fuels, and thus a potential contribution to mitigate climate change. Short rotation coppices (SRCs) with fast growing poplar and willow trees are an option for producing high yields of woody biomass, which is suitable for both energetic and material use. One negative effect that comes along with the establishment of SRC may be a decrease in groundwater recharge, because high rates of transpiration and interception are anticipated. Therefore, it is important to measure, analyze, and model the effects of SRC-planting on landscape water budgets. To analyze the effects on the water budget, a poplar SRC plot was studied by measuring hydrological parameters to be used in the hydrological model WaSim. Results reveal very low or even missing ground water recharge for SRC compared to agricultural land use or grassland, especially succeeding dry years. However, this strong effect on plot level is moderated on the larger spatial scale of catchment level, for which the modeling was also performed. In addition to water, nutrient fluxes and budgets were studied. Nitrogen is still a crucial issue in today's agriculture. Intensive fertilization or increased applications of manure from concentrated livestock breeding are often leading to high loads of nitrate leaching, or enhanced N2O emissions to the atmosphere on arable crop fields. SRC or agroforestry systems on former crop land may offer an option to decrease such N losses, while simultaneously producing woody biomass. This is mainly due to the generally smaller N requirements of woody vegetation, which usually entail no need for any fertilization. The trees supply deep and permanent rooting systems, which can be regarded as a "safety net" to prevent nutrient leaching. Thus, SRC altogether can help to diminish N eutrophication. It is important to

  18. Data production models for the CDF experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Antos, J.; Babik, M.; Benjamin, D.; Cabrera, S.; Chan, A.W.; Chen, Y.C.; Coca, M.; Cooper, B.; Genser, K.; Hatakeyama, K.; Hou, S.; Hsieh, T.L.; Jayatilaka, B.; Kraan, A.C.; Lysak, R.; Mandrichenko, I.V.; Robson, A.; Siket, M.; Stelzer, B.; Syu, J.; Teng, P.K.; /Kosice, IEF /Duke U. /Taiwan, Inst. Phys. /University Coll. London /Fermilab /Rockefeller U. /Michigan U. /Pennsylvania U. /Glasgow U. /UCLA /Tsukuba U. /New Mexico U.

    2006-06-01

    The data production for the CDF experiment is conducted on a large Linux PC farm designed to meet the needs of data collection at a maximum rate of 40 MByte/sec. We present two data production models that exploits advances in computing and communication technology. The first production farm is a centralized system that has achieved a stable data processing rate of approximately 2 TByte per day. The recently upgraded farm is migrated to the SAM (Sequential Access to data via Metadata) data handling system. The software and hardware of the CDF production farms has been successful in providing large computing and data throughput capacity to the experiment.

  19. Models of Temporal Discounting 1937-2000: An Interdisciplinary Exchange between Economics and Psychology.

    PubMed

    Grüne-Yanoff, Till

    2015-12-01

    Today's models of temporal discounting are the result of multiple interdisciplinary exchanges between psychology and economics. Although these exchanges did not result in an integrated discipline, they had important effects on all disciplines involved. The paper describes these exchanges from the 1930s onwards, focusing on two episodes in particular: an attempted synthesis by psychiatrist George Ainslie and others in the 1970s; and the attempted application of this new discounting model by a generation of economists and psychologists in the 1980s, which ultimately ended in the diversity of measurements disappointment. I draw four main conclusions. First, multiple notions of temporal discounting must be conceptually distinguished. Second, behavioral economics is not an integration or unification of psychology and economics. Third, the analysis identifies some central disciplinary markers that distinguish modeling strategies in economics and psychology. Finally, it offers a case of interdisciplinary success that does not fit the currently dominant account of interdisciplinarity as integration.

  20. Techno-economic analysis of a transient plant-based platform for monoclonal antibody production

    PubMed Central

    Nandi, Somen; Kwong, Aaron T.; Holtz, Barry R.; Erwin, Robert L.; Marcel, Sylvain; McDonald, Karen A.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Plant-based biomanufacturing of therapeutic proteins is a relatively new platform with a small number of commercial-scale facilities, but offers advantages of linear scalability, reduced upstream complexity, reduced time to market, and potentially lower capital and operating costs. In this study we present a detailed process simulation model for a large-scale new “greenfield” biomanufacturing facility that uses transient agroinfiltration of Nicotiana benthamiana plants grown hydroponically indoors under light-emitting diode lighting for the production of a monoclonal antibody. The model was used to evaluate the total capital investment, annual operating cost, and cost of goods sold as a function of mAb expression level in the plant (g mAb/kg fresh weight of the plant) and production capacity (kg mAb/year). For the Base Case design scenario (300 kg mAb/year, 1 g mAb/kg fresh weight, and 65% recovery in downstream processing), the model predicts a total capital investment of $122 million dollars and cost of goods sold of $121/g including depreciation. Compared with traditional biomanufacturing platforms that use mammalian cells grown in bioreactors, the model predicts significant reductions in capital investment and >50% reduction in cost of goods compared with published values at similar production scales. The simulation model can be modified or adapted by others to assess the profitability of alternative designs, implement different process assumptions, and help guide process development and optimization. PMID:27559626

  1. Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

    PubMed

    Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

    2017-01-01

    In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation.

  2. Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models

    EPA Science Inventory

    Impacts of a range of policy scenarios on end-use energy demand are examined using a coupling of MARKAL, an energy system model with extensive supply and end-use technological detail, with Inforum LIFT, a large-scale model of the us. economy with inter-industry, government, and c...

  3. Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Momblanch, Andrea; Connor, Jeffery D.; Crossman, Neville D.; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

    2016-07-01

    Demand for water is expected to grow in line with global human population growth, but opportunities to augment supply are limited in many places due to resource limits and expected impacts of climate change. Hydro-economic models are often used to evaluate water resources management options, commonly with a goal of understanding how to maximise water use value and reduce conflicts among competing uses. The environment is now an important factor in decision making, which has resulted in its inclusion in hydro-economic models. We reviewed 95 studies applying hydro-economic models, and documented how the environment is represented in them and the methods they use to value environmental costs and benefits. We also sought out key gaps and inconsistencies in the treatment of the environment in hydro-economic models. We found that representation of environmental values of water is patchy in most applications, and there should be systematic consideration of the scope of environmental values to include and how they should be valued. We argue that the ecosystem services framework offers a systematic approach to identify the full range of environmental costs and benefits. The main challenges to more holistic representation of the environment in hydro-economic models are the current limits to understanding of ecological functions which relate physical, ecological and economic values and critical environmental thresholds; and the treatment of uncertainty.

  4. A deterministic aggregate production planning model considering quality of products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madadi, Najmeh; Yew Wong, Kuan

    2013-06-01

    Aggregate Production Planning (APP) is a medium-term planning which is concerned with the lowest-cost method of production planning to meet customers' requirements and to satisfy fluctuating demand over a planning time horizon. APP problem has been studied widely since it was introduced and formulated in 1950s. However, in several conducted studies in the APP area, most of the researchers have concentrated on some common objectives such as minimization of cost, fluctuation in the number of workers, and inventory level. Specifically, maintaining quality at the desirable level as an objective while minimizing cost has not been considered in previous studies. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming model that serves those companies aiming to incur the minimum level of operational cost while maintaining quality at an acceptable level. In order to obtain the solution to the multi-objective model, the Fuzzy Goal Programming approach and max-min operator of Bellman-Zadeh were applied to the model. At the final step, IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio software was used to obtain the experimental results based on the data collected from an automotive parts manufacturing company. The results show that incorporating quality in the model imposes some costs, however a trade-off should be done between the cost resulting from producing products with higher quality and the cost that the firm may incur due to customer dissatisfaction and sale losses.

  5. Revised Reynolds Stress and Triple Product Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Olsen, Michael E.; Lillard, Randolph P.

    2017-01-01

    Revised versions of Lag methodology Reynolds-stress and triple product models are applied to accepted test cases to assess the improvement, or lack thereof, in the prediction capability of the models. The Bachalo-Johnson bump flow is shown as an example for this abstract submission.

  6. BOREAS TE-17 Production Efficiency Model Images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Forrest G.; Papagno, Andrea (Editor); Goetz, Scott J.; Goward, Samual N.; Prince, Stephen D.; Czajkowski, Kevin; Dubayah, Ralph O.

    2000-01-01

    A Boreal Ecosystem-Atmospheric Study (BOREAS) version of the Global Production Efficiency Model (http://www.inform.umd.edu/glopem/) was developed by TE-17 (Terrestrial Ecology) to generate maps of gross and net primary production, autotrophic respiration, and light use efficiency for the BOREAS region. This document provides basic information on the model and how the maps were generated. The data generated by the model are stored in binary image-format files. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC).

  7. Eco-techno-economic synthesis of process routes for the production of zinc using combinatorial optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sudhölter, S.; Krüger, J.; Reuter, M. A.

    1996-12-01

    The demands placed on the environmental and social acceptability of metallurgical processing technology are rising steadily. Of particular importance are the production techniques, products, and disposal of residues. These aspects are affected by the varying compositions of the primary and secondary raw materials processed in the plants and the rapidly changing market situations in the metallurgical industry. Metallurgical engineers have to select “optimal” processes from a vast number of existing technologies for the primary production of zinc and for the processing of zinc containing residues. To enable the engineer to compare these techniques and to choose the right combination of unit operations, a process design methodology is presented here, which has been adapted from methodologies developed in chemical engineering and minerals processing. In a previous article by the authors, a structural parameter approach was introduced, that implements a synthesis model, which includes all unit operations currently implemented in zinc metallurgy. At the basis of this model is a data base containing the details of the unit operations included in the model. In this article, this methodology is expanded to incorporate an unlimited quantity of different components by introducing the simulated annealing optimization technique to generate optimal flow sheets for the production of zinc under varying constraints which include operation costs, metal prices, environmental costs, and split factors for Zn, Pb, Ag, and Fe. Case studies demonstrate the functionality of this metallurgical tool for the hydrometallurgical recovery of zinc including numerous unit operations for the processing of by-products and residues. It will also be demonstrated how this model can be extended to a “waste management” tool that generates processing routes not only for the residues from the zinc industry but also for zinc containing residues from other processes, e.g., EAF dusts.

  8. Oxygen production System Models for Lunar ISRU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Santiago-Maldonado, Edgardo

    2007-01-01

    In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) seeks to make human space exploration feasible; by using available resources from a planet or the moon to produce consumables, parts, and structures that otherwise would be brought from Earth. Producing these in situ reduces the mass of such that must be launched and doing so allows more payload mass' for each mission. The production of oxygen from lunar regolith, for life support and propellant, is one of the tasks being studied under ISRU. NASA is currently funding three processes that have shown technical merit for the production of oxygen from regolith: Molten Salt Electrolysis, Hydrogen Reduction of Ilmenite, and Carbothermal Reduction. The ISRU program is currently developing system models of, the , abovementioned processes to: (1) help NASA in the evaluation process to select the most cost-effective and efficient process for further prototype development, (2) identify key parameters, (3) optimize the oxygen production process, (4) provide estimates on energy and power requirements, mass and volume.of the system, oxygen production rate, mass of regolith required, mass of consumables, and other important parameters, and (5) integrate into the overall end-to-end ISRU system model, which could be integrated with mission architecture models. The oxygen production system model is divided into modules that represent unit operations (e.g., reactor, water electrolyzer, heat exchanger). Each module is modeled theoretically using Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), and will be validated using experimental data from on-going laboratory work. This modularity (plug-n-play) feature of each unit operation allows the use of the same model on different oxygen production systems simulations resulting in comparable results. In this presentation, preliminary results for mass, power, volume will be presented along with brief description of the oxygen production system model.

  9. USSR Report, Economic Affairs, No. 1052, EKO: Economics and Organization of Industrial Production, No. 12, December 1982

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-05-09

    During such periods, the electric balance is supplemented by the thermopower plants. 40 Grid construction has lagged behind the capacity of the...management of fish production? V. M. Kamentsev: Our sector has adopted 13 comprehensive specific programs, including "Pelagial," "Squid," " Krill ...it is completely suitable for producing cattle feed. Krill .... Whatever one’s attitude, it would make it possible to solve many of our problems

  10. Modeling choice behavior for new pharmaceutical products.

    PubMed

    Bingham, M F; Johnson, F R; Miller, D

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a dynamic generalization of a model often used to aid marketing decisions relating to conventional products. The model uses stated-preference data in a random-utility framework to predict adoption rates for new pharmaceutical products. In addition, this paper employs a Markov model of patient learning in drug selection. While the simple learning rule presented here is only a rough approximation to reality, this model nevertheless systematically incorporates important features including learning and the influence of shifting preferences on market share. Despite its simplifications, the integrated framework of random-utility and product attribute updating presented here is capable of accommodating a variety of pharmaceutical marketing and development problems. This research demonstrates both the strengths of stated-preference market research and some of its shortcomings for pharmaceutical applications.

  11. An evaluation of production and economic efficiency of two beef systems from calving to slaughter.

    PubMed

    Anderson, R V; Rasby, R J; Klopfenstein, T J; Clark, R T

    2005-03-01

    A 3-yr experiment was conducted with cows and their calves to evaluate resource inputs, animal performance, and carcass characteristics of two production systems. In the control system, cows (CON; n = 99/yr) grazed pasture and were fed hay during the winter, and CON steer calves were finished in the feedlot for 211 d after weaning. In the treatment system (TRT; n = 100/yr), cows grazed pasture and crop residue during the winter and were fed hay. Treatment steer calves grazed crop residue after weaning, grazed pasture in the spring and summer, and were finished in the feedlot for 90 d. Body condition scores after TRT cows returned from crop residue grazing were greater (P < 0.01) for CON than for TRT cows. Calving rates were similar for both groups (CON = 91%; TRT = 93%). In the feedlot, CON steers had lower (P < 0.05) ADG and DMI, but were more efficient (P < 0.01) than TRT steers. Treatment steers had greater (P < 0.05) final weight, hot carcass weight and longissimus muscle area, and decreased marbling score. The cost per weaned calf and weaning breakeven were greater (P = 0.07) for the CON system than for the TRT system (CON = 455.12 dollars, 0.91 dollar/0.45 kg; TRT = 421.43 dollars, 0.84 dollar/0.45 kg). When steers were priced into the postweaning phase on an economic basis, slaughter breakeven was lower (P = 0.01), and profit potential tended (P = 0.14) to be greater for TRT steers when they were sold on a live basis. When steers were priced into the postweaning phase on a financial basis, slaughter breakeven was lower (P = 0.03) and profit potential from the sale of steers on a live basis was greater (P = 0.07) for TRT than for CON steers. Economic evaluation of the total system resulted in greater (P = 0.06) profit potential for the TRT system when steers were priced into the system on either an economic or a financial basis and when steers were sold on a live basis, but no differences were observed when steers were sold on a grid basis. Despite

  12. Hydro-Economic Modeling with Minimum Data Requirements: An Application to the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torres, M.; Maneta, M.; Vosti, S.; Wallender, W.; Howitt, R.

    2008-12-01

    Policymakers have been charged with the efficient, equitable, and sustainable use of water resources of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB), Brazil, and also with the promotion of economic growth and the reduction of poverty within the basin. To date, policymakers lack scientific evidence on the potential consequence