Economic values of production and functional traits, including residual feed intake, in Finnish milk production.

PubMed

Hietala, P; Wolfová, M; Wolf, J; Kantanen, J; Juga, J

2014-02-01

Improving the feed efficiency of dairy cattle has a substantial effect on the economic efficiency and on the reduction of harmful environmental effects of dairy production through lower feeding costs and emissions from dairy farming. To assess the economic importance of feed efficiency in the breeding goal for dairy cattle, the economic values for the current breeding goal traits and the additional feed efficiency traits for Finnish Ayrshire cattle under production circumstances in 2011 were determined. The derivation of economic values was based on a bioeconomic model in which the profit of the production system was calculated, using the generated steady state herd structure. Considering beef production from dairy farms, 2 marketing strategies for surplus calves were investigated: (A) surplus calves were sold at a young age and (B) surplus calves were fattened on dairy farms. Both marketing strategies were unprofitable when subsidies were not included in the revenues. When subsidies were taken into account, a positive profitability was observed in both marketing strategies. The marginal economic values for residual feed intake (RFI) of breeding heifers and cows were -25.5 and -55.8 €/kg of dry matter per day per cow and year, respectively. The marginal economic value for RFI of animals in fattening was -29.5 €/kg of dry matter per day per cow and year. To compare the economic importance among traits, the standardized economic weight of each trait was calculated as the product of the marginal economic value and the genetic standard deviation; the standardized economic weight expressed as a percentage of the sum of all standardized economic weights was called relative economic weight. When not accounting for subsidies, the highest relative economic weight was found for 305-d milk yield (34% in strategy A and 29% in strategy B), which was followed by protein percentage (13% in strategy A and 11% in strategy B). The third most important traits were calving

Optimizing cultivation of agricultural products using socio-economic and environmental scenarios.

PubMed

RaheliNamin, Behnaz; Mortazavi, Samar; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul

2016-11-01

The combination of degrading natural conditions and resources, climate change, growing population, urban development, and competition in a global market complicate optimization of land for agricultural products. The use of pesticides and fertilizers for crop production in the agricultural fields has become excessive in the recent years and Golestan Province of Iran is no exception in this regard. For this, effective management with an efficient and cost-effective practice should be undertaken, maintaining public service at a high level and preserving the environment. Improving the production efficiency of agriculture, efficient use of water resources, decreasing the use of pesticides and fertilizers, improving farmer revenue, and conservation of natural resources are the main objectives of the allocation, ranking, and optimization of agricultural products. The goal of this paper is to use an optimization procedure to lower the negative effects of agriculture while maintaining a high production rate, which is currently a gap in the study area. We collected information about fertilizer and pesticide consumption and other data in croplands of eastern Golestan Province through face-to-face interviews with farmers to optimize cultivation of the agricultural products. The toxicity of pesticides according to LD50 was also included in the optimization model. A decision-support software system called multiple criteria analysis tool was used to simultaneously minimize consumption of water, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides and maximize socio-economic returns. Three scenarios for optimization of agricultural products were generated that alternatively emphasized on environmental and socio-economic goals. Comparing socio-economic and environmental performance of the optimized agricultural products under the three scenarios illustrated the conflict between social, economic, and environmental objectives. Of the six crops studied (wheat, barley, rice, soybeans, oilseed rape

Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

PubMed

Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-12

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-01

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

Economics of Gypsum Production in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim

The purpose of this research is to analyze the economics of gypsum production in Iran. The trend in production cost, selling price and profit are used to investigate economics of gypsum production. In addition, the multivariate time series method is used to determine factors affecting gypsum price in domestic market. The results indicated that due to increase in production and inflation, profitability of gypsum production has decreased during recent years. It is concluded that tariff and non-tariff barriers on mines machinery are among reasons for increasing production cost in Iranian gypsum mines. Decreasing such barriers could increase profitability of gypsum production in Iran.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

2015-04-01

Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

Economic Modeling Considerations for Rare Diseases.

PubMed

Pearson, Isobel; Rothwell, Ben; Olaye, Andrew; Knight, Christopher

2018-05-01

To identify challenges that affect the feasibility and rigor of economic models in rare diseases and strategies that manufacturers have employed in health technology assessment submissions to demonstrate the value of new orphan products that have limited study data. Targeted reviews of PubMed, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) Highly Specialised Technologies (HST), and the Scottish Medicines Consortium's (SMC's) ultra-orphan submissions were performed. A total of 19 PubMed studies, 3 published NICE HSTs, and 11 ultra-orphan SMC submissions were eligible for inclusion. In rare diseases, a number of different factors may affect the model's ability to comply with good practice recommendations. Many products for the treatment of rare diseases have an incomplete efficacy and safety profile at product launch. In addition, there is often limited available natural history and epidemiology data. Information on the direct and indirect cost burden of an orphan disease also may be limited, making it difficult to estimate the potential economic benefit of treatment. These challenges can prevent accurate estimation of a new product's benefits in relation to costs. Approaches that can address such challenges include using patient and/or clinician feedback to inform model assumptions; data from disease analogues; epidemiological techniques, such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison; and long-term data collection. Modeling in rare diseases is often challenging; however, a number of approaches are available to support the development of model structures and the collation of input parameters and to manage uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biofuel Crops Expansion: Evaluating the Impact on the Agricultural Water Scarcity Costs and Hydropower Production with Hydro Economic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, G.

2015-12-01

Biofuels such as ethanol from sugar cane remain an important element to help mitigate the impacts of fossil fuels on the atmosphere. However, meeting fuel demands with biofuels requires technological advancement for water productivity and scale of production. This may translate into increased water demands for biofuel crops and potential for conflicts with incumbent crops and other water uses including domestic, hydropower generation and environmental. It is therefore important to evaluate the effects of increased biofuel production on the verge of water scarcity costs and hydropower production. The present research applies a hydro-economic optimization model to compare different scenarios of irrigated biofuel and hydropower production, and estimates the potential tradeoffs. A case study from the Araguari watershed in Brazil is provided. These results should be useful to (i) identify improved water allocation among competing economic demands, (ii) support water management and operations decisions in watersheds where biofuels are expected to increase, and (iii) identify the impact of bio fuel production in the water availability and economic value. Under optimized conditions, adoption of sugar cane for biofuel production heavily relies on the opportunity costs of other crops and hydropower generation. Areas with a lower value crop groups seem more suitable to adopt sugar cane for biofuel when the price of ethanol is sufficiently high and the opportunity costs of hydropower productions are not conflicting. The approach also highlights the potential for insights in water management from studying regional versus larger scales bundled systems involving water use, food production and power generation.

Process model and economic analysis of ethanol production from sugar beet raw juice as part of the cleaner production concept.

PubMed

Vučurović, Damjan G; Dodić, Siniša N; Popov, Stevan D; Dodić, Jelena M; Grahovac, Jovana A

2012-01-01

The batch fermentation process of sugar beet processing intermediates by free yeast cells is the most widely used method in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina for producing ethanol as fuel. In this study a process and cost model was developed for producing ethanol from raw juice. The model can be used to calculate capital investment costs, unit production costs and operating costs for a plant producing 44 million l of 99.6% pure ethanol annually. In the sensitivity analysis the influence of sugar beet and yeast price, as well as the influence of recycled biomass on process economics, ethanol production costs and project feasibility was examined. The results of this study clearly demonstrate that the raw material costs have a significant influence on the expenses for producing ethanol. Also, the optimal percentage of recycled biomass turned out to be in the range from 50% to 70%. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling production functions and economic weights in intensive meat production of guinea pigs.

PubMed

Pascual, Mariam; Cruz, Danny Julio; Blasco, Agustín

2017-10-01

A profit function for a typical commercial farm of intensive guinea pig production was designed. The simulated farm contained 86 cages with a ratio of 7:1 females/males, with continuous mating. Kits were weaned at 15 days of age and slaughtered for meat production at 90 days of age. The absolute (EW) and relative economic weights of the main traits were calculated. The highest EW were kits produced per kindling (US$25), kits weaned per kindling (US$22), kits born alive per kindling (US$20), and the number of kindlings per female and year (US$12). Profit, returns, and costs per female and year were US$15, 68, and 53, respectively. Returns came from the production of young guinea pigs and discarded reproductive adults for meat production, 90 and 10% of the total returns. The highest costs were feeding and labor, 44 and 23% of the total cost. The EW and profit did not substantially change when simulating variations of ±20% in the prices of kilograms of fattening feed and kilograms of live weight of guinea pig, showing their robustness to future variations in market prices or to variations in prices between countries. The results obtained highlight the importance of the feeding costs in the guinea pig meat production.

Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howitt, R. E.

2016-12-01

Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between

Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

2014-05-01

To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

Modeling of the Gross Regional Product on the Basis of Production Functions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sadovin, Nikolay S.; Kokotkina, Tatiana N.; Barkalova, Tatiana G.; Tsaregorodsev, Evgeny I.

2016-01-01

The article is devoted to elaboration and construction of a static model of macroeconomics in which economics is considered as an unstructured holistic unit, the input of which receives the resources, and the output is the result of the functioning of economics in the form of gross domestic product or gross regional product. Resources are…

Research of Environmental and Economic Interactions of Coke And By-Product Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhailov, Vladimir; Kiseleva, Tamara; Bugrova, Svetlana; Muromtseva, Alina; Mikhailova, Yana

2017-11-01

The issues of showing relations between environmental and economic indicators (further - environmental and economic interactions) of coke and by-product process are considered in the article. The purpose of the study is to reveal the regularities of the functioning of the local environmental and economic system on the basis of revealed spectrum of environmental and economic interactions. A simplified scheme of the environmental and economic system "coke and by-product process - the environment" was developed. The forms of the investigated environmental-economic interactions were visualized and the selective interpretation of the tightness of the established connection was made. The main result of the work is modeling system of environmental and economic interactions that allows increasing the efficiency of local ecological and economic system management and optimizing the "interests" of an industrial enterprise - the source of negative impact on the environment. The results of the survey can be recommended to government authorities and industrial enterprises with a wide range of negative impact forms to support the adoption of effective management decisions aimed at sustainable environmental and economic development of the region or individual municipalities.

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

PubMed

Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

2017-09-01

Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Productivity costs in economic evaluations: past, present, future.

PubMed

Krol, Marieke; Brouwer, Werner; Rutten, Frans

2013-07-01

Productivity costs occur when the productivity of individuals is affected by illness, treatment, disability or premature death. The objective of this paper was to review past and current developments related to the inclusion, identification, measurement and valuation of productivity costs in economic evaluations. The main debates in the theory and practice of economic evaluations of health technologies described in this review have centred on the questions of whether and how to include productivity costs, especially productivity costs related to paid work. The past few decades have seen important progress in this area. There are important sources of productivity costs other than absenteeism (e.g. presenteeism and multiplier effects in co-workers), but their exact influence on costs remains unclear. Different measurement instruments have been developed over the years, but which instrument provides the most accurate estimates has not been established. Several valuation approaches have been proposed. While empirical research suggests that productivity costs are best included in the cost side of the cost-effectiveness ratio, the jury is still out regarding whether the human capital approach or the friction cost approach is the most appropriate valuation method to do so. Despite the progress and the substantial amount of scientific research, a consensus has not been reached on either the inclusion of productivity costs in economic evaluations or the methods used to produce productivity cost estimates. Such a lack of consensus has likely contributed to ignoring productivity costs in actual economic evaluations and is reflected in variations in national health economic guidelines. Further research is needed to lessen the controversy regarding the estimation of health-related productivity costs. More standardization would increase the comparability and credibility of economic evaluations taking a societal perspective.

Economic issues with follow-on protein products.

PubMed

Lanthier, Michael; Behrman, Rachel; Nardinelli, Clark

2008-09-01

The economic effects of the possible introduction of 'follow-on' protein products have been the subject of recent debate. Here, we aim to explore the economic issues surrounding this debate using three measures: total sales, product complexity and patent expiry. Our analysis shows that the sales of therapeutic protein products are concentrated in a relatively small number of branded products, which may be the most attractive targets for follow-on development. For the years 2013-2015, we estimate that products representing US$20 billion in annual sales--approximately half of all sales in 2006--can be expected to lose patent protection.

Work-site health promotion: an economic model.

PubMed

Patton, J P

1991-08-01

Despite a burgeoning interest in and acceptance of corporate health promotion, the overall economic effects of these programs are not clear. Although ultimate resolution of this question awaits detailed empiric research, a theoretical approach can be useful in structuring the problem and understanding the critical issues. The financial model presented views the firm as a value-maximizing enterprise and evaluates health promotion as a use of corporate assets. The model projects the benefits and costs to the firm of a 7-year health promotion program under a variety of assumptions regarding the employee mix and the effects of the health promotion program on health and productivity. The analysis reveals that the base case assumptions result in a program that creates value for the firm when the cost is less than $193 per participating employee per year. Firms with a highly productive, difficult to replace, and older employee group are most likely to find health promotion to be a good investment. Productivity gains produce the majority of the economic benefits of the program. Effects on health care expense alone are projected to be relatively small. Gains from reduction in employee mortality or retiree health expense are found to be insignificant in this model.

High titer L-lactic acid production from corn stover with minimum wastewater generation and techno-economic evaluation based on Aspen plus modeling.

PubMed

Liu, Gang; Sun, Jiaoe; Zhang, Jian; Tu, Yi; Bao, Jie

2015-12-01

Technological potentials of l-lactic acid production from corn stover feedstock were investigated by experimental and techno-economic studies. An optimal performance with 104.5 g/L in l-lactic acid titer and 71.5% in overall yield from cellulose in corn stover to l-lactic acid using an engineered Pediococcus acidilactici strain were obtained by overcoming several technical barriers. A rigorous Aspen plus model for l-lactic acid production starting from dry dilute acid pretreated and biodetoxified corn stover was developed. The techno-economic analysis shows that the minimum l-lactic acid selling price (MLSP) was $0.523 per kg, which was close to that of the commercial l-lactic acid produced from starch feedstock, and 24% less expensive than that of ethanol from corn stover, even though the xylose utilization was not considered. The study provided a prototype of industrial application and an evaluation model for high titer l-lactic acid production from lignocellulose feedstock. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Process engineering economics of bioethanol production.

PubMed

Galbe, Mats; Sassner, Per; Wingren, Anders; Zacchi, Guido

2007-01-01

This work presents a review of studies on the process economics of ethanol production from lignocellulosic materials published since 1996. Our objective was to identify the most costly process steps and the impact of various parameters on the final production cost, e.g. plant capacity, raw material cost, and overall product yield, as well as process configuration. The variation in estimated ethanol production cost is considerable, ranging from about 0.13 to 0.81 US$ per liter ethanol. This can be explained to a large extent by actual process differences and variations in the assumptions underlying the techno-economic evaluations. The most important parameters for the economic outcome are the feedstock cost, which varied between 30 and 90 US$ per metric ton in the papers studied, and the plant capacity, which influences the capital cost. To reduce the ethanol production cost it is necessary to reach high ethanol yields, as well as a high ethanol concentration during fermentation, to be able to decrease the energy required for distillation and other downstream process steps. Improved pretreatment methods, enhanced enzymatic hydrolysis with cheaper and more effective enzymes, as well as improved fermentation systems present major research challenges if we are to make lignocellulose-based ethanol production competitive with sugar- and starch-based ethanol. Process integration, either internally or externally with other types of plants, e.g. heat and power plants, also offers a way of reducing the final ethanol production cost.

Conversion of bioprocess ethanol to industrial chemical products - Applications of process models for energy-economic assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rohatgi, Naresh K.; Ingham, John D.

1992-01-01

An assessment approach for accurate evaluation of bioprocesses for large-scale production of industrial chemicals is presented. Detailed energy-economic assessments of a potential esterification process were performed, where ethanol vapor in the presence of water from a bioreactor is catalytically converted to ethyl acetate. Results show that such processes are likely to become more competitive as the cost of substrates decreases relative to petrolium costs. A commercial ASPEN process simulation provided a reasonably consistent comparison with energy economics calculated using JPL developed software. Detailed evaluations of the sensitivity of production cost to material costs and annual production rates are discussed.

The economic viability of smallholder timber production under expanding açaí palm production in the Amazon Estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Douglas R. Carter,

2015-01-01

Relatively little attention has been paid to the economic potentials and limitations of tropical timber production and management at smallholder scales, with the most relevant research focusing on community forestry efforts. As a rare tropical example of long-lasting small-scale timber production, in this study we explore the economics of smallholder vertically integrated timber use to better understand the activity in the context of its primary land use alternative in the Amazon Estuary, açaí palm fruit production. We use data from landowner and firm surveys, participatory monitoring of firms, and detailed forest and sawmill operation monitoring to devise financial returns models of smallholder timber micro firms and açaí palm fruit production. We then compare the economics of the two activities to better understand how differences may shape decisions at the small holder scale that impact current land use shifts in the region.

Economics and Maximum Entropy Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, R. D.

2003-04-01

Price differentials, sales volume and profit can be seen as analogues of temperature difference, heat flow and work or entropy production in the climate system. One aspect in which economic systems exhibit more clarity than the climate is that the empirical and/or statistical mechanical tendency for systems to seek a maximum in production is very evident in economics, in that the profit motive is very clear. Noting the common link between 1/f noise, power laws and Self-Organized Criticality with Maximum Entropy Production, the power law fluctuations in security and commodity prices is not inconsistent with the analogy. There is an additional thermodynamic analogy, in that scarcity is valued. A commodity concentrated among a few traders is valued highly by the many who do not have it. The market therefore encourages via prices the spreading of those goods among a wider group, just as heat tends to diffuse, increasing entropy. I explore some empirical price-volume relationships of metals and meteorites in this context.

Body mass index and economic productivity.

PubMed

Kennedy, E; Garcia, M

1994-11-01

The paper reviews the evidence to date on the nutritional links with productivity and then goes on to provide results from a multi-country study on the effects of increasing body mass index (BMI) on productivity. The research relating nutritional status to work capacity is more consistent than the research linking nutritional status to productivity. None of the studies to date elucidate the pathways through which improved nutrition improves economic productivity. In addition, many of the studies that have been conducted on the nutrition/wage links have been based on samples that contained a disproportionate number of male subjects. The few studies that have disaggregated data by gender report different results for men and women. Research conducted at IFPRI is presented to examine the trends in BMI for men and women across countries and for Kenya to examine the relationships between various measures of nutritional status--BMI and height--and energy expenditures in women. BMIs of men show a more consistent relationship with increasing household income than do the BMIs of women. In the case of the Gambia and Kenya, the mean BMI of women decreases with increasing household income. One reason for the apparently low response of BMI to increasing household income in Kenya is the time allocation patterns of women. Women in the Kenya sample spend the largest proportion of their day in home production activities which are energy intensive. In examining the relationship between nutritional indicators and the time devoted to work, the results suggest a significant, positive association between both BMI and height and the amount of time devoted to work. In the models presented, both BMI and height appear to increase the capacity to carry out work. It is difficult to value much of this work time since a disproportionate share is devoted to home production activities. Some of the more classic methods of measuring economic productivity, such as measuring wage rates, are not

Production system with process quality control: modelling and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsou, Jia-Chi

2010-07-01

Over the past decade, there has been a great deal of research dedicated to the study of quality and the economics of production. In this article, we develop a dynamic model which is based on the hypothesis of a traditional economic production quantity model. Taguchi's cost of poor quality is used to evaluate the cost of poor quality in the dynamic production system. A practical case from the automotive industry, which uses the Six-sigma DMAIC methodology, is discussed to verify the proposed model. This study shows that there is an optimal value of quality investment to make the production system reach a reasonable quality level and minimise the production cost. Based on our model, the management can adjust its investment in quality improvement to generate considerable financial return.

Annual Economic Burden of Productivity Losses Among Adult Survivors of Childhood Cancers.

PubMed

Guy, Gery P; Berkowitz, Zahava; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Rim, Sun Hee; Yabroff, K Robin

2016-11-01

Although adult survivors of childhood cancers have poorer health and greater health limitations than other adults, substantial gaps remain in understanding the economic consequences of surviving childhood cancer. Therefore, we estimated the economic burden of productivity losses among adult survivors of childhood cancers. We examined health status, functional limitations, and productivity loss among adult survivors of childhood cancers (n = 239) diagnosed at ≤14 years of age compared with adults without a history of cancer (n = 304 265) by using the 2004-2014 National Health Interview Survey. We estimated economic burden using the productivity loss from health-related unemployment, missed work days, missed household productivity, and multivariable regression models controlling for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, comorbidities, and survey year. Childhood cancer survivorship is associated with a substantial economic burden. Adult survivors of childhood cancers are more likely to be in poorer health, need assistance with personal care and routine needs, have work limitations, be unable to work because of health, miss more days of work, and have greater household productivity loss compared with adults without a history of cancer (all P < .05). The annual productivity loss for adult survivors of childhood cancer is $8169 per person compared with $3083 per person for individuals without a history of cancer. These findings underscore the importance of efforts to reduce the health and economic burden among adult survivors of childhood cancer. In addition, this study highlights the potential productivity losses that could be avoided during adulthood from the prevention of childhood cancer in the United States. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Economic assessment of biodiesel production from waste frying oils.

PubMed

Araujo, Victor Kraemer Wermelinger Sancho; Hamacher, Silvio; Scavarda, Luiz Felipe

2010-06-01

Waste frying oils (WFO) can be a good source for the production of biodiesel because this raw material is not part of the food chain, is low cost and can be used in a way that resolves environmental problems (i.e. WFO is no longer thrown into the sewage network). The goal of this article is to propose a method to evaluate the costs of biodiesel production from WFO to develop an economic assessment of this alternative. This method embraces a logistics perspective, as the cost of collection of oil from commercial producers and its delivery to biodiesel depots or plants can be relevant and is an issue that has been little explored in the academic literature. To determine the logistics cost, a mathematical programming model is proposed to solve the vehicle routing problem (VRP), which was applied in an important urban center in Brazil (Rio de Janeiro), a relevant and potential center for biodiesel production and consumption. Eighty-one biodiesel cost scenarios were compared with information on the commercialization of biodiesel in Brazil. The results obtained demonstrate the economic viability of biodiesel production from WFO in the urban center studied and the relevance of logistics in the total biodiesel production cost. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Breeding objectives for pigs in Kenya. II: economic values incorporating risks in different smallholder production systems.

PubMed

Mbuthia, Jackson Mwenda; Rewe, Thomas Odiwuor; Kahi, Alexander Kigunzu

2015-02-01

This study estimated economic values for production traits (dressing percentage (DP), %; live weight for growers (LWg), kg; live weight for sows (LWs), kg) and functional traits (feed intake for growers (FEEDg), feed intake for sow (FEEDs), preweaning survival rate (PrSR), %; postweaning survival (PoSR), %; sow survival rate (SoSR), %, total number of piglets born (TNB) and farrowing interval (FI), days) under different smallholder pig production systems in Kenya. Economic values were estimated considering two production circumstances: fixed-herd and fixed-feed. Under the fixed-herd scenario, economic values were estimated assuming a situation where the herd cannot be increased due to other constraints apart from feed resources. The fixed-feed input scenario assumed that the herd size is restricted by limitation of feed resources available. In addition to the tradition profit model, a risk-rated bio-economic model was used to derive risk-rated economic values. This model accounted for imperfect knowledge concerning risk attitude of farmers and variance of input and output prices. Positive economic values obtained for traits DP, LWg, LWs, PoSR, PrSR, SoSR and TNB indicate that targeting them in improvement would positively impact profitability in pig breeding programmes. Under the fixed-feed basis, the risk-rated economic values for DP, LWg, LWs and SoSR were similar to those obtained under the fixed-herd situation. Accounting for risks in the EVs did not yield errors greater than ±50 % in all the production systems and basis of evaluation meaning there would be relatively little effect on the real genetic gain of a selection index. Therefore, both traditional and risk-rated models can be satisfactorily used to predict profitability in pig breeding programmes.

User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keyser, David; Flores-Espino, Francisco; Uriarte, Caroline

The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the countrymore » of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.« less

Assessing the agricultural costs of climate change: Combining results from crop and economic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howitt, R. E.

2016-12-01

Any perturbation to a resource system used by humans elicits both technical and behavioral changes. For agricultural production, economic criteria and their associated models are usually good predictors of human behavior in agricultural production. Estimation of the agricultural costs of climate change requires careful downscaling of global climate models to the level of agricultural regions. Plant growth models for the dominant crops are required to accurately show the full range of trade-offs and adaptation mechanisms needed to minimize the cost of climate change. Faced with the shifts in the fundamental resource base of agriculture, human behavior can either exacerbate or offset the impact of climate change on agriculture. In addition, agriculture can be an important source of increased carbon sequestration. However the effectiveness and timing of this sequestration depends on agricultural practices and farmer behavior. Plant growth models and economic models have been shown to interact in two broad fashions. First there is the direct embedding of a parametric representation plant growth simulations in the economic model production function. A second and more general approach is to have plant growth and crop process models interact with economic models as they are simulated. The development of more general wrapper programs that transfer information between models rapidly and efficiently will encourage this approach. However, this method does introduce complications in terms of matching up disparate scales both in time and space between models. Another characteristic behavioral response of agricultural production is the distinction between the intensive margin which considers the quantity of resource, for example fertilizer, used for a given crop, and the extensive margin of adjustment that measures how farmers will adjust their crop proportions in response to climate change. Ideally economic models will measure the response to both these margins of adjustment

Productivity: The New Economic Context. Worldwatch Paper 49.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newland, Kathleen

Worldwide economic productivity is examined in this paper. There are seven major sections. Section 1 is an introduction which discusses how as the seventies came to a close without producing a strong and sustained recovery from global economic recession, the spotlight of public concern focused on the problem of productivity. Trends which have…

Impacts of supplyshed-level differences in productivity and land Costs on the economics of hybrid poplar production in Minnesota, USA

Treesearch

William Lazarus; William L. Headlee; Ronald S. Zalesny

2015-01-01

The joint effects of poplar biomass productivity and land costs on poplar production economics were compared for 12 Minnesota counties and two genetic groups, using a process-based model (3-PG) to estimate productivity. The counties represent three levels of productivity and a range of land costs (annual rental rates) from $128/ha to $534/ha. An optimal rotation age...

Economic lot sizing in a production system with random demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Shine-Der; Yang, Chin-Ming; Lan, Shu-Chuan

2016-04-01

An extended economic production quantity model that copes with random demand is developed in this paper. A unique feature of the proposed study is the consideration of transient shortage during the production stage, which has not been explicitly analysed in existing literature. The considered costs include set-up cost for the batch production, inventory carrying cost during the production and depletion stages in one replenishment cycle, and shortage cost when demand cannot be satisfied from the shop floor immediately. Based on renewal reward process, a per-unit-time expected cost model is developed and analysed. Under some mild condition, it can be shown that the approximate cost function is convex. Computational experiments have demonstrated that the average reduction in total cost is significant when the proposed lot sizing policy is compared with those with deterministic demand.

Modeling perceptions of climatic risk in crop production.

PubMed

Reinmuth, Evelyn; Parker, Phillip; Aurbacher, Joachim; Högy, Petra; Dabbert, Stephan

2017-01-01

In agricultural production, land-use decisions are components of economic planning that result in the strategic allocation of fields. Climate variability represents an uncertainty factor in crop production. Considering yield impact, climatic influence is perceived during and evaluated at the end of crop production cycles. In practice, this information is then incorporated into planning for the upcoming season. This process contributes to attitudes toward climate-induced risk in crop production. In the literature, however, the subjective valuation of risk is modeled as a risk attitude toward variations in (monetary) outcomes. Consequently, climatic influence may be obscured by political and market influences so that risk perceptions during the production process are neglected. We present a utility concept that allows the inclusion of annual risk scores based on mid-season risk perceptions that are incorporated into field-planning decisions. This approach is exemplified and implemented for winter wheat production in the Kraichgau, a region in Southwest Germany, using the integrated bio-economic simulation model FarmActor and empirical data from the region. Survey results indicate that a profitability threshold for this crop, the level of "still-good yield" (sgy), is 69 dt ha-1 (regional mean Kraichgau sample) for a given season. This threshold governs the monitoring process and risk estimators. We tested the modeled estimators against simulation results using ten projected future weather time series for winter wheat production. The mid-season estimators generally proved to be effective. This approach can be used to improve the modeling of planning decisions by providing a more comprehensive evaluation of field-crop response to climatic changes from an economic risk point of view. The methodology further provides economic insight in an agrometeorological context where prices for crops or inputs are lacking, but farmer attitudes toward risk should still be included in

Modeling perceptions of climatic risk in crop production

PubMed Central

Parker, Phillip; Aurbacher, Joachim; Högy, Petra; Dabbert, Stephan

2017-01-01

In agricultural production, land-use decisions are components of economic planning that result in the strategic allocation of fields. Climate variability represents an uncertainty factor in crop production. Considering yield impact, climatic influence is perceived during and evaluated at the end of crop production cycles. In practice, this information is then incorporated into planning for the upcoming season. This process contributes to attitudes toward climate-induced risk in crop production. In the literature, however, the subjective valuation of risk is modeled as a risk attitude toward variations in (monetary) outcomes. Consequently, climatic influence may be obscured by political and market influences so that risk perceptions during the production process are neglected. We present a utility concept that allows the inclusion of annual risk scores based on mid-season risk perceptions that are incorporated into field-planning decisions. This approach is exemplified and implemented for winter wheat production in the Kraichgau, a region in Southwest Germany, using the integrated bio-economic simulation model FarmActor and empirical data from the region. Survey results indicate that a profitability threshold for this crop, the level of “still-good yield” (sgy), is 69 dt ha-1 (regional mean Kraichgau sample) for a given season. This threshold governs the monitoring process and risk estimators. We tested the modeled estimators against simulation results using ten projected future weather time series for winter wheat production. The mid-season estimators generally proved to be effective. This approach can be used to improve the modeling of planning decisions by providing a more comprehensive evaluation of field-crop response to climatic changes from an economic risk point of view. The methodology further provides economic insight in an agrometeorological context where prices for crops or inputs are lacking, but farmer attitudes toward risk should still be included

Economic and life cycle assessments of biomass utilization for bioenergy products

DOE PAGES

Liu, Weiguo; Wang, Jingxin; Richard, Tom L.; ...

2017-05-04

A modeling process was developed to examine the economic and environmental benefits of utilizing energy crops for biofuels and bioproducts. Three energy crops (hybrid willow, switchgrass and miscanthus) that can potentially grow on marginal agricultural land or abandoned mine land in the northeastern United States were considered in the analytical process for the production of biofuels, biopower and pellet fuel. The supply chain components for both the economic analysis and life cycle modeling processes included feedstock establishment, harvest, transportation, storage, preprocessing, conversion, distribution and final usage. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the effects of energy crop yield, transportationmore » distance, conversion rate, facility capacity and internal rate of return (IRR) on the production of bioenergy products. The required selling price (RSP) ranged from $ 7.7/GJ to $ 47.9/GJ for different bioproducts. The production of biopower had the highest RSP and pellet fuel had the lowest. The results also indicated that bioenergy production using hybrid willow demonstrated lower RSP than the two perennial grass feedstocks. Pellet production presented the lowest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (less than 10 kg CO 2 eq per 1,000 MJ) and fossil energy consumption (less than 150 MJ per 1,000 MJ). The production of biofuel resulted in the highest GHG emissions. Sensitivity analysis indicated that IRR was the most sensitive factor to RSP and followed by conversion rate for biofuel and biopower production. As a result, conversion rate and transportation distance of feedstock presented a significant effect on environmental impacts during the production of the bioproducts.« less

Economic and life cycle assessments of biomass utilization for bioenergy products

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Weiguo; Wang, Jingxin; Richard, Tom L.

A modeling process was developed to examine the economic and environmental benefits of utilizing energy crops for biofuels and bioproducts. Three energy crops (hybrid willow, switchgrass and miscanthus) that can potentially grow on marginal agricultural land or abandoned mine land in the northeastern United States were considered in the analytical process for the production of biofuels, biopower and pellet fuel. The supply chain components for both the economic analysis and life cycle modeling processes included feedstock establishment, harvest, transportation, storage, preprocessing, conversion, distribution and final usage. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the effects of energy crop yield, transportationmore » distance, conversion rate, facility capacity and internal rate of return (IRR) on the production of bioenergy products. The required selling price (RSP) ranged from $ 7.7/GJ to $ 47.9/GJ for different bioproducts. The production of biopower had the highest RSP and pellet fuel had the lowest. The results also indicated that bioenergy production using hybrid willow demonstrated lower RSP than the two perennial grass feedstocks. Pellet production presented the lowest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (less than 10 kg CO 2 eq per 1,000 MJ) and fossil energy consumption (less than 150 MJ per 1,000 MJ). The production of biofuel resulted in the highest GHG emissions. Sensitivity analysis indicated that IRR was the most sensitive factor to RSP and followed by conversion rate for biofuel and biopower production. As a result, conversion rate and transportation distance of feedstock presented a significant effect on environmental impacts during the production of the bioproducts.« less

Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

PubMed

Simpson, Kit N

2010-05-01

To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

Economic tour package model using heuristic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

2014-07-01

A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

Cognitive Capitalism: Economic Freedom Moderates the Effects of Intellectual and Average Classes on Economic Productivity.

PubMed

Coyle, Thomas R; Rindermann, Heiner; Hancock, Dale

2016-10-01

Cognitive ability stimulates economic productivity. However, the effects of cognitive ability may be stronger in free and open economies, where competition rewards merit and achievement. To test this hypothesis, ability levels of intellectual classes (top 5%) and average classes (country averages) were estimated using international student assessments (Programme for International Student Assessment; Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study; and Progress in International Reading Literacy Study) (N = 99 countries). The ability levels were correlated with indicators of economic freedom (Fraser Institute), scientific achievement (patent rates), innovation (Global Innovation Index), competitiveness (Global Competitiveness Index), and wealth (gross domestic product). Ability levels of intellectual and average classes strongly predicted all economic criteria. In addition, economic freedom moderated the effects of cognitive ability (for both classes), with stronger effects at higher levels of freedom. Effects were particularly robust for scientific achievements when the full range of freedom was analyzed. The results support cognitive capitalism theory: cognitive ability stimulates economic productivity, and its effects are enhanced by economic freedom. © The Author(s) 2016.

Developing Molecular Genetic Tools to Facilitate Economic Production in Green Algae

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-10

Economic Production in Green Algae FA9550-10-1-0052 Georgianna, David, R Gimpel, Javier Hannon, Michael, J Mayfield, Stephen, P Prof. Stephen...Final Performance Report Project Title: Developing Molecular Genetic Tools to Facilitate Economic Production in Green Algae Award Number... ECONOMIC PRODUCTION IN GREEN ALGAE ABSTRACT It is now accepted that algae have enormous potential to generate economically viable and

Spatialization of Brazilian pig production: relationship between productive, physical, environmental, and socio-economic variables.

PubMed

da Silva, Isabel C M; Bremm, Bárbara; Teixeira, Jennifer L; Costa, Nathalia S; Barcellos, Júlio O J; Braccini, José; Cesconeto, Robson J; McManus, Concepta

2017-06-01

Brazilian pig production spans over a large territory encompassing regions of different climatic and socio-economic realities. Production, physical, socio-economic, and environmental data were used to characterize pig production in the country. Multivariate analysis evaluated indices including number productivity, production levels, and income from pigs, together with the average area of pig farm and socio-economic variables such as municipal human development index, technical guidance received from agricultural cooperatives and industrial companies, number of family farms, and offtake; and finally, environmental variables: latitude, longitude, annual temperature range, solar radiation index, as well as temperature and humidity index. The Southern region has the largest herd, number of pigs sold/sow, and offtake rate (p < 0.05), followed by the Midwest and Southeast. No significant correlations were seen between production rates and productivity with the socio-economic and environmental variables in the regions of Brazil. Production indexes, productivity, and offtake rate discriminated Northeast and Midwest and Northeast and Southeast regions. The Northern region, with a large area, has few and far-between farms that rear pigs for subsistence. The Northeast region has large herds, but low productivity. Number of slaughtered pigs has been variable over the past three decades, with few states responsible for maintaining high production in Brazil. However, the activity can be effective in any region of the country with technology and technical assistance adapted to regional characteristics.

Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuel Production from Macroalgae (Seaweed)

PubMed Central

Soleymani, Mohsen

2017-01-01

A techno-economic evaluation of bioenergy production from macroalgae was carried out in this study. Six different scenarios were examined for the production of different energy products and by-products. Seaweed was produced either via the longline method or the grid method. Final products of these scenarios were either ethanol from fermentation, or electricity from anaerobic digestion (AD). By-products were digestate for AD, and animal feed, or electricity and digestate, for the fermentation pathway. Bioenergy breakeven selling prices were investigated according to the cost components and the feedstock supply chain, while suggestions for potential optimization of costs were provided. The lowest production level of dry seaweed to meet 0.93 ($/L) for ethanol fuel and 0.07 $/kW-h for electricity was found to be 0.68 and 3.7 million tonnes (dry basis), respectively. At the moment, biofuel production from seaweed has been determined not to be economically feasible, but achieving economic production may be possible by lowering production costs and increasing the area under cultivation. PMID:29186857

Economic aspects of production of Caiman crocodilus yacare.

PubMed

Carreira, Laura B T; Sabbag, Omar J

2015-03-01

The breeding of crocodilians is still a recent activity in Brazil. Its peak was in the 1990's, but it has gaps in its production, as there are no norms for the commercial breeding of these animals in captivity. However, its economic potential is great, and the search for ecological balance and viability of commercial production has become a challenge among farmers of this activity. Therefor, the objective of the study was to economically analyze the production of Caiman crocodilus yacare on a farm located in Caceres, state of Mato Grosso, identifying relevant items of costs in the activity, as well as the parameters related to the profitability and viability of the activity. The economic results for the breeding of this animal were positive, with profitability ratios higher than 70%.

Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach.

PubMed

Boonen, Tim J; Li, Hong

2017-10-01

Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model.

From Commodity Production to Sign Production: A Triple Triangle Model for Marx's Semiotics and Peirce's Economics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Joohoan

Using the viewpoint of semiotics, this paper "re-reads" Karl Marx's labor theory of value and suggests a "triple triangle" model for commodity production and shows how this model could be a model for semiosis in general. The paper argues that there are three advantages to considering homogeneity of the sign production and the…

[Economic determinants of the demand for importation of pharmacochemical and pharmaceutical products].

PubMed

Santos, Anderson Moreira Aristides Dos; Tejada, César Augusto Oviedo; Jacinto, Paulo de Andrade

2017-09-28

: This article analyzes the relationship between the demand for importation of pharmacochemical and pharmaceutical products and economic variables (exchange rate, import prices, and aggregate income) in Brazil, using monthly data from 1997-2014. The main results showed that increases in aggregate income and price reductions in imports have a positive and significant impact (elastic and inelastic, respectively) on imports. Exchange rate was only significant in the more aggregate model. Thus, aggregate income was a robust variable with strong impact on the importation of pharmacochemical and pharmaceutical products. The arguments in the literature that this industry's international trade deficit is related to a deficit in knowledge and technology and the current study's results provide evidence that as economic activity grows, there is a greater demand for this type of product. Additionally, if domestic production is insufficient, there is a need for imports, which can generate pressure on the trade deficit in the industry and contribute to Brazil's dependence on other countries.

Optimization Control of the Color-Coating Production Process for Model Uncertainty

PubMed Central

He, Dakuo; Wang, Zhengsong; Yang, Le; Mao, Zhizhong

2016-01-01

Optimized control of the color-coating production process (CCPP) aims at reducing production costs and improving economic efficiency while meeting quality requirements. However, because optimization control of the CCPP is hampered by model uncertainty, a strategy that considers model uncertainty is proposed. Previous work has introduced a mechanistic model of CCPP based on process analysis to simulate the actual production process and generate process data. The partial least squares method is then applied to develop predictive models of film thickness and economic efficiency. To manage the model uncertainty, the robust optimization approach is introduced to improve the feasibility of the optimized solution. Iterative learning control is then utilized to further refine the model uncertainty. The constrained film thickness is transformed into one of the tracked targets to overcome the drawback that traditional iterative learning control cannot address constraints. The goal setting of economic efficiency is updated continuously according to the film thickness setting until this reaches its desired value. Finally, fuzzy parameter adjustment is adopted to ensure that the economic efficiency and film thickness converge rapidly to their optimized values under the constraint conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed optimization control strategy is validated by simulation results. PMID:27247563

Optimization Control of the Color-Coating Production Process for Model Uncertainty.

PubMed

He, Dakuo; Wang, Zhengsong; Yang, Le; Mao, Zhizhong

2016-01-01

Optimized control of the color-coating production process (CCPP) aims at reducing production costs and improving economic efficiency while meeting quality requirements. However, because optimization control of the CCPP is hampered by model uncertainty, a strategy that considers model uncertainty is proposed. Previous work has introduced a mechanistic model of CCPP based on process analysis to simulate the actual production process and generate process data. The partial least squares method is then applied to develop predictive models of film thickness and economic efficiency. To manage the model uncertainty, the robust optimization approach is introduced to improve the feasibility of the optimized solution. Iterative learning control is then utilized to further refine the model uncertainty. The constrained film thickness is transformed into one of the tracked targets to overcome the drawback that traditional iterative learning control cannot address constraints. The goal setting of economic efficiency is updated continuously according to the film thickness setting until this reaches its desired value. Finally, fuzzy parameter adjustment is adopted to ensure that the economic efficiency and film thickness converge rapidly to their optimized values under the constraint conditions. The effectiveness of the proposed optimization control strategy is validated by simulation results.

Evaluating the economics of biomass energy production in the Watts Bar region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexander, R.R.; English, B.C.; Bhat, M.G.

1993-12-31

While the commercial potential of biofuel technology is becoming more feasible, it is not clear whether the supply of biomass feedstock will be available in competitive markets. In order to exploit the potential of biomass crops as a reliable source of biofuels, a significant commitment on the part of farmers to convert large amounts of cropland would be required. Dedicated energy crops have to compete with conventional crops which could result in significant interregional shifts in crop production. Those changes could further affect overall agricultural production, food prices, consumer spending, and government spending on farm programs. Evaluating these economic impactsmore » provides important information for the ongoing debate. This research is a case study incorporating an existing power plant. The objective of this project is to evaluate the potential of short rotation woody crops as a fuel source in the Watts Bar facility located in eastern Tennessee. The appraisal includes estimates of environmental impacts as well as of economic feasibility. This is achieved by estimating the amounts of biomass that would be supplied at a predetermined price. By changing prices of biomass at the plant in an incremental fashion, a regional supply curve for biomass is estimated. The model incorporates current agricultural production possibilities in the region along with the proposed short rotation woody crop production activities. In order to adequately model the landscape, several variables are considered. These variables include soil type, crop production, government policy, land use conversion to crop land, and distance from the plant. Environmental issues including erosion, chemical usage, and potential leaching are also incorporated within the modeling framework; however, only estimates on erosion are available in this analysis. Output from the model provides insight on where and what types of land should shift from current land use to biomass production.« less

An economic analysis of communal goat production.

PubMed

Sebel, P J; McCrindle, C M E; Webb, E C

2004-03-01

The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scale communal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of North West Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In South Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to

Techno-economic and environmental assessment of biogas production from banana peel (Musa paradisiaca) in a biorefinery concept.

PubMed

Martínez-Ruano, Jimmy Anderson; Caballero-Galván, Ashley Sthefanía; Restrepo-Serna, Daissy Lorena; Cardona, Carlos Ariel

2018-04-07

Two scenarios for the biogas production using Banana Peel as raw material were evaluated. The first scenario involves the stand-alone production of biogas and the second scenario includes the biogas production together with other products under biorefinery concept. In both scenarios, the influence of the production scale on the process economy was assessed and feasibility limits were defined. For this purpose, the mass and energy balances were established using the software Aspen Plus along with kinetic models reported in the literature. The economic and environmental analysis of the process was performed considering Colombian economic conditions. As a result, it was found that different process scales showed great potential for biogas production. Thus, plants with greater capacity have a greater economic benefit than those with lower capacity. However, this benefit leads to high-energy consumption and greater environmental impact.

Inverse Problems in Economic Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shananin, A. A.

2018-02-01

The problem of economic measurements is discussed. The system of economic indices must reflect the economic relations and mechanisms existing in society. An achievement of the XX century is the development of a system of national accounts and the gross domestic product index. However, the gross domestic product index, which is related to the Hamilton-Pontryagin function in extensive economic growth models, turns out to be inadequate under the conditions of structural changes. New problems of integral geometry related to production models that take into account the substitution of production factors are considered.

An economic model for evaluating high-speed aircraft designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vandervelden, Alexander J. M.

1989-01-01

A Class 1 method for determining whether further development of a new aircraft design is desirable from all viewpoints is presented. For the manufacturer the model gives an estimate of the total cost of research and development from the preliminary design to the first production aircraft. Using Wright's law of production, one can derive the average cost per aircraft produced for a given break-even number. The model will also provide the airline with a good estimate of the direct and indirect operating costs. From the viewpoint of the passenger, the model proposes a tradeoff between ticket price and cruise speed. Finally all of these viewpoints are combined in a Comparative Aircraft Seat-kilometer Economic Index.

Impact of production strategies and animal performance on economic values of dairy sheep traits.

PubMed

Krupová, Z; Wolfová, M; Krupa, E; Oravcová, M; Daňo, J; Huba, J; Polák, P

2012-03-01

The objective of this study was to carry out a sensitivity analysis on the impact of various production strategies and performance levels on the relative economic values (REVs) of traits in dairy sheep. A bio-economic model implemented in the program package ECOWEIGHT was used to simulate the profit function for a semi-extensive production system with the Slovak multi-purpose breed Improved Valachian and to calculate the REV of 14 production and functional traits. The following production strategies were analysed: differing proportions of milk processed to cheese, customary weaning and early weaning of lambs with immediate sale or sale after artificial rearing, seasonal lambing in winter and aseasonal lambing in autumn. Results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in detail for the four economically most important traits: 150 days milk yield, conception rate of ewes, litter size and ewe productive lifetime. Impacts of the differences in the mean value of each of these four traits on REVs of all other traits were also examined. Simulated changes in the production circumstances had a higher impact on the REV for milk yield than on REVs of the other traits investigated. The proportion of milk processed to cheese, weaning management strategy for lambs and level of milk yield were the main factors influencing the REV of milk yield. The REVs for conception rate of ewes were highly sensitive to the current mean level of the trait. The REV of ewe productive lifetime was most sensitive to variation in ewe conception rate, and the REV of litter size was most affected by weaning strategy for lambs. On the basis of the results of sensitivity analyses, it is recommended that economic values of traits for the overall breeding objective for dairy sheep be calculated as the weighted average of the economic values obtained for the most common production strategies of Slovak dairy sheep farms and that economic values be adjusted after substantial changes in performance levels

JEDI International Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov Websites

NREL International Model JEDI International Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) International Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from international

Economic Spillovers From Public Investments in Medical Countermeasures: A Case Study of a Burn Debridement Product.

PubMed

Farahati, Farah; Nystrom, Scott; Howell, David R; Jaffe, Richard

2017-12-01

The US federal government invests in the development of medical countermeasures for addressing adverse health effects to the civilian population from chemical, biological, and radiological or nuclear threats. We model the potential economic spillover effects in day-to-day burn care for a federal investment in a burn debridement product for responding to an improvised nuclear device. We identify and assess 4 primary components for projecting the potential economic spillover benefits of a burn debridement product: (1) market size, (2) clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, (3) product cost, and (4) market adoption rates. Primary data sources were the American Burn Association's 2015 National Burn Repository Annual Report of Data and published clinical studies used to gain European approval for the burn debridement product. The study results showed that if approved for use in the United States, the burn debridement product has potential economic spillover benefits exceeding the federal government's initial investment of $24 million a few years after introduction into the burn care market. Economic spillover analyses can help to inform the prioritizing of scarce resources for research and development of medical countermeasures by the federal government. Future federal medical countermeasure research and development investments could incorporate economic spillover analysis to assess investment options. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:711-719).

The Commercialisation of University Research and Economic Productivity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Paul

2007-01-01

This article focuses on the relationship between university research (in this case science research) and national economic productivity, particularly in the context of the emerging knowledge economy. It addresses the question of whether university research output should be treated as a public good or a private good, in economic terms, and analyses…

Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

2000-01-01

Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

The economic aspects of artificial snow production in the perspective of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonseth, C.

2012-04-01

levels that are not optimal in the sense that they do not maximize social welfare. More generally, economic analysis has the potential to explain current investment and snow production levels and to determine optimal ones. It can also predict the evolution of these levels under a warmer climate. For instance, such predictions were carried out for Switzerland as well as for other Alpine countries using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy with a time horizon up to 2050, the GEMINI-E3 model. With all these points in mind, this presentation aims at reviewing what has been done so far on the economic aspects of artificial snow production and also at identifying avenues for future research.

Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

PubMed

Damos, Petros

2014-05-01

The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

Scale-up and economic analysis of biodiesel production from municipal primary sewage sludge.

PubMed

Olkiewicz, Magdalena; Torres, Carmen M; Jiménez, Laureano; Font, Josep; Bengoa, Christophe

2016-08-01

Municipal wastewater sludge is a promising lipid feedstock for biodiesel production, but the need to eliminate the high water content before lipid extraction is the main limitation for scaling up. This study evaluates the economic feasibility of biodiesel production directly from liquid primary sludge based on experimental data at laboratory scale. Computational tools were used for the modelling of the process scale-up and the different configurations of lipid extraction to optimise this step, as it is the most expensive. The operational variables with a major influence in the cost were the extraction time and the amount of solvent. The optimised extraction process had a break-even price of biodiesel of 1232 $/t, being economically competitive with the current cost of fossil diesel. The proposed biodiesel production process from waste sludge eliminates the expensive step of sludge drying, lowering the biodiesel price. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2012)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

2012-01-01

The purpose of this manual is to enable users of the Global Forest Products Model to: • Install and run the GFPM software • Understand the input data • Change the input data to explore different scenarios • Interpret the output The GFPM is an economic model of global production, consumption and trade of forest products (Buongiorno et al. 2003). The GFPM2012 has data...

Liquid hydrogen production and economics for NASA Kennedy Space Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, D. L.

1985-12-01

Detailed economic analyses for the production of liquid hydrogen used to power the Space Shuttle are presented. The hydrogen production and energy needs of the NASA Kennedy Space Center are reviewed, and steam reformation, polygeneration, and electrolysis for liquid hydrogen production are examined on an equal economic basis. The use of photovoltaics as an electrolysis power source is considered. The 1985 present worth is calculated based on life cycle costs over a 21-year period beginning with full operation in 1990. Two different sets of escalation, inflation, and discount rates are used, with revenue credit being given for energy or other products of the hydrogen production process. The results show that the economic analyses are very dependent on the escalation rates used. The least net present value is found for steam reformation of natural gas, while the best net present value is found for the electrolysis process which includes the phasing of photovoltaics.

Ledipasvir/sofosbuvir regimens for chronic hepatitis C infection: Insights from a work productivity economic model from the United States.

PubMed

Younossi, Zobair M; Jiang, Yushan; Smith, Nathaniel J; Stepanova, Maria; Beckerman, Rachel

2015-05-01

Patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) exhibit reduced work productivity owing to their disease. Historically, most regimens indicated for CHC genotype 1 (GT1) patients were administered with pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) and/or ribavirin (RBV), which further compromised work productivity during treatment. The aim of this study was to model the impact of LDV/SOF (ledipasvir/sofosbuvir), the first Peg-IFN- and RBV-free regimen for CHC GT1 patients, on work productivity from an economic perspective, compared to receiving no treatment. The WPAI-SHP (Work Productivity and Activity Index-Specific Health Problem) questionnaire was administered to patients across the ION clinical trials (N = 1,923 U.S. patients). Before initiation of treatment, patients with CHC GT1 in the ION trials exhibited absenteeism and presenteeism impairments of 2.57% and 7.58%, respectively. Patients with cirrhosis exhibited greater work productivity impairment than patients without cirrhosis. In total, 93.21% of U.S. patients in the ION trials achieved SVR; these patients exhibited absenteeism and presenteeism impairments of 2.62% (P = 0.76, when compared to baseline) and 3.53% (P < 0.0001), respectively. Monetizing these data to the entire U.S. population, our model projects an annual societal cost of $7.1 billion owing to productivity loss in untreated GT1 CHC patients. Our model projects that, when compared to no treatment, treating all CHC GT1 patients with a regimen with very high viral eradication rates (LDV/SOF) would translate to annual productivity loss savings of $2.7 billion over a 1-year time horizon. Patients with untreated HCV impose a substantial societal burden owing to reduced work productivity. As a result of improvements in work productivity, treatment of CHC GT1 patients with LDV/SOF-based regimens is likely to result in significant cost savings from a societal perspective, relative to no treatment. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver

Model for economic evaluation of high energy gas fracturing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engi, D.

1984-05-01

The HEGF/NPV model has been developed and adapted for interactive microcomputer calculations of the economic consequences of reservoir stimulation by high energy gas fracturing (HEGF) in naturally fractured formations. This model makes use of three individual models: a model of the stimulated reservoir, a model of the gas flow in this reservoir, and a model of the discounted expected net cash flow (net present value, or NPV) associated with the enhanced gas production. Nominal values of the input parameters, based on observed data and reasonable estimates, are used to calculate the initial expected increase in the average daily rate ofmore » production resulting from the Meigs County HEGF stimulation experiment. Agreement with the observed initial increase in rate is good. On the basis of this calculation, production from the Meigs County Well is not expected to be profitable, but the HEGF/NPV model probably provides conservative results. Furthermore, analyses of the sensitivity of the expected NPV to variations in the values of certain reservoir parameters suggest that the use of HEGF stimulation in somewhat more favorable formations is potentially profitable. 6 references, 4 figures, 3 tables.« less

An economic production model for deteriorating items and time dependent demand with rework and multiple production setups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uthayakumar, R.; Tharani, S.

2017-12-01

Recently, much emphasis has given to study the control and maintenance of production inventories of the deteriorating items. Rework is one of the main issues in reverse logistic and green supply chain, since it can reduce production cost and the environmental problem. Many researchers have focused on developing rework model, but few of them have developed model for deteriorating items. Due to this fact, we take up productivity and rework with deterioration as the major concern in this paper. In this paper, a production-inventory model with deteriorative items in which one cycle has n production setups and one rework setup (n, 1) policy is considered for deteriorating items with stock-dependent demand in case 1 and exponential demand in case 2. An effective iterative solution procedure is developed to achieve optimal time, so that the total cost of the system is minimized. Numerical and sensitivity analyses are discussed to examine the outcome of the proposed solution procedure presented in this research.

JEDI Geothermal Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Geothermal Model JEDI Geothermal Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Geothermal Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from geothermal projects and includes

JEDI Biofuels Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Biofuels Models JEDI Biofuels Models The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) biofuel models allow users to estimate economic development impacts from biofuel projects and include default

JEDI Petroleum Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Petroleum Model JEDI Petroleum Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Petroleum Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from petroleum projects and includes default

Integrating health economics modeling in the product development cycle of medical devices: a Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Vallejo-Torres, Laura; Steuten, Lotte M G; Buxton, Martin J; Girling, Alan J; Lilford, Richard J; Young, Terry

2008-01-01

Medical device companies are under growing pressure to provide health-economic evaluations of their products. Cost-effectiveness analyses are commonly undertaken as a one-off exercise at the late stage of development of new technologies; however, the benefits of an iterative use of economic evaluation during the development process of new products have been acknowledged in the literature. Furthermore, the use of Bayesian methods within health technology assessment has been shown to be of particular value in the dynamic framework of technology appraisal when new information becomes available in the life cycle of technologies. In this study, we set out a methodology to adapt these methods for their application to directly support investment decisions in a commercial setting from early stages of the development of new medical devices. Starting with relatively simple analysis from the very early development phase and proceeding to greater depth of analysis at later stages, a Bayesian approach facilitates the incorporation of all available evidence and would help companies to make better informed choices at each decision point.

Economic values and selection index in different Angus-Nellore cross-bred production systems.

PubMed

Fernandes, G M; Savegnago, R P; El Faro, L; Mosaquatro Roso, V; de Paz, C C P

2018-06-01

Bioeconomic models were developed to calculate economic values (EV) for economically important traits in beef cattle, to evaluate the impact of these traits on production profitability, to assess possible market changes with a payment system and to develop economic selection indexes for Angus cattle for two production systems. Two beef cattle production systems were simulated as follows: a cow-calf cycle (CC) and a complete cycle (CoC). Following selection, positive changes in the EV were observed. In the CC, each 1.0% increment in weaning weight (WW), weaning rate (WR) and pregnancy rate (PR) resulted in increases in US$ 1.30, US$ 3.68 and US$ 3.55 per cow/year in profit, respectively. In the CoC, EV of US$ 1.01, US$ 1.79, US$ 1.19, US$ 1.34, US$ 6.84 and US$ 7.86 per cow/year were obtained for WW, year weight, yearling weight, final weight, WR and PR, respectively. The payment system for carcass quality showed that the scenario considering that 100% of the animals displayed uniform carcasses exhibited the highest EV and was considered optimal. Considering the sensitivity analysis, the price paid per animal was the factor that most affected the EV in both systems. The selection indexes obtained may be used in similar production systems, and the use of EV and selection indexes are important tools for any production system with positive change in profit after selection. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

JEDI Natural Gas Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Natural Gas Model JEDI Natural Gas Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Natural Gas model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from natural gas power generation -specific data should be used to obtain the best estimate of economic development impacts. This model has

Economic communication model set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

2017-06-01

This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

JEDI Coal Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Coal Model JEDI Coal Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Coal Model allow users to estimate economic development impacts from coal projects and includes default information that can

Transforming the food-water-energy-land-economic nexus of plasticulture production through compact bed geometries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holt, Nathan; Shukla, Sanjay; Hochmuth, George; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Ozores-Hampton, Monica

2017-12-01

Raised-bed plasticulture, an intensive production system used around the world for growing high-value crops (e.g., fresh market vegetables), faces a water-food nexus that is actually a food-water-energy-land-economic nexus. Plasticulture represents a multibillion dollar facet of the United States crop production value annually and must become more efficient to be able to produce more on less land, reduce water demands, decrease impacts on surrounding environments, and be economically-competitive. Taller and narrower futuristic beds were designed with the goal of making plasticulture more sustainable by reducing input requirements and associated wastes (e.g., water, nutrients, pesticides, costs, plastics, energy), facilitating usage of modern technologies (e.g., drip-based fumigation), improving adaptability to a changing climate (e.g., flood protection), and increasing yield per unit area. Compact low-input beds were analyzed against conventional beds for the plasticulture production of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), an economically-important crop, using a systems approach involving field measurements, vadose-zone modeling (HYDRUS), and production analysis. Three compact bed geometries, 61 cm (width) × 25 cm (height), 45 cm × 30 cm, 41 cm × 30 cm, were designed and evaluated against a conventional 76 cm × 20 cm bed. A two-season field study was conducted for tomato in the ecologically-sensitive and productive Everglades region of Florida. Compact beds did not statistically impact yield and were found to reduce: 1) production costs by 150-450/ha; 2) leaching losses by up to 5% (1 cm/ha water, 0.33 kg/ha total nitrogen, 0.05 kg/ha total phosphorus); 3) fumigant by up to 47% (48 kg/ha); 4) plasticulture's carbon footprint by up to 10% (1711 kg CO2-eq/ha) and plastic waste stream by up to 13% (27 kg/ha); 5) flood risks and disease pressure by increasing field's soil water storage capacity by up to 33% (≈1 cm); and 6) field runoff by 0.48-1.40 cm (51-76%) based on

Thorium: Crustal abundance, joint production, and economic availability

DOE PAGES

Jordan, Brett W.; Eggert, Roderick G.; Dixon, Brent W.; ...

2015-03-02

Recently, interest in thorium's potential use in a nuclear fuel cycle has been renewed. Thorium is more abundant, at least on average, than uranium in the earth's crust and, therefore, could theoretically extend the use of nuclear energy technology beyond the economic limits of uranium resources. This paper provides an economic assessment of thorium availability by creating cumulative-availability and potential mining-industry cost curves, based on known thorium resources. These tools provide two perspectives on the economic availability of thorium. In the long term, physical quantities of thorium likely will not be a constraint on the development of a thorium fuelmore » cycle. In the medium term, however, thorium supply may be limited by constraints associated with its production as a by-product of rare earth elements and heavy mineral sands. As a result, environmental concerns, social issues, regulation, and technology also present issues for the medium and long term supply of thorium.« less

Economic Evaluation of the Production Magnesium Oxide Nanoparticles via Liquid-Phase Route

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandiyanto, A. B. D.; Fariansyah, R.; Ramadhan, M. F.; Abdullah, A. G.; Widiaty, I.

2018-02-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the production of magnesium oxide (MgO) nanoparticles. The evaluation was done in two perspectives: engineering and economic evaluation. The engineering perspective concerned about the analysis of the production rate based on the available apparatuses and raw materials, completed with mass balance calculation. The economic analysis was conducted based on several economic parameters: gross profit margin (GPM), internal return rate (IRR), payback period (PBP), cumulative net present value (CNPV), break even point (BEP), and profit to investment (PI). The engineering perspective showed that the production of MgO is feasibly done in small scale industry. This is verified by the potential production using current available apparatuses and raw materials in the market. Economic analysis obtained that the present project is profitable. But, for some cases, further studies must be done to get the present production process is attractive for investor.

[Human resources planning: the use of demographic-economic models].

PubMed

Daubon, R E

1980-01-01

This article provides an overview of the evolution of employment at different stages of economic development and describes the employment situation in developing countries, suggesting future trends and means of improvement. The lack of authentic development is reflected in the problem of employment of both natural and human resources in Third World countries. Their occupational structures may be examined in 2 periods, 1 in which a certain pretransitional equilibrium was still observed, and the other following the beginning of industrialization. With increased population growth and the application of development strategies favoring urban areas and manufacturing, a series of imbalances were introduced which had as 1 consequence an ever widening income gap between rural areas, cities, and developed countries. Rural stagnation and population pressure ultimately led to massive urban migration in many areas, swelling the cities and creating an "informal sector" of underemployed persons in marginal activities of low productivity. By 2050, the world labor force will have increased from its present 1.7 billion workers to 3.8 billion, of which only 660 million will be in presently developed countries. Each country must plan the best use of its human resources, and must include employment planning in overall development planning. The development of economic-demographic models, adapted to the context of each country, can be a valuable tool in planning. Various types of economic-demographic models and their uses are described and differentiated. Economic-demographic models of employment have 3 main parts, demography, economy, and training. Their use in the analysis of the impact of specific variables on employment, of policies, and of general strategies is described. Finally, the characteristics and uses of MODEMP, an economic-demographic model created for analysis of labor force and employment problems in Peru, are described.

Model confirmation in climate economics

PubMed Central

Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

2016-01-01

Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

2015-12-01

Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

PubMed

Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

2010-01-01

Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

Economic models of the family and the relationship between economic status and health.

PubMed

Tipper, Adam

2010-05-01

Empirical evidence strongly suggests that there is a positive relationship between economic status and health, and that married persons are healthier than their single counterparts. There are, however, a number of economic explanations for why economic status is related to health in the family context that are often overlooked in empirical studies. This paper provides a comparative introduction to three main economic approaches to the family in order to understand further why married persons are often observed to be healthier than single persons. The models discussed are the unitary model, the collective labour supply model, and the institutional economics approach. In discussing the different approaches to health formation in a family context, issues pertaining to gender, intra-household inequality, and resource transfers are also explored to highlight the advantages of considering various economic perspectives. Each of these models, it is suggested, provides an alternative view of the mechanisms for relating economic status to health, and may thus affect the interpretation of empirical results. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

"Lost milk?": Counting the economic value of breast milk in gross domestic product.

PubMed

Smith, J P

2013-11-01

The contribution of breastfeeding and mothers milk to the economy is invisible in economic statistics. This article demonstrates how the economic value of human milk production can be included in economic statistics such as gross domestic product (GDP) and provides estimates for Australia, the United States, and Norway. The contribution of human milk and lactation to GDP in these countries is estimated using United Nations (System of National Accounting) guidelines and conventional economic valuation approaches to measuring production in GDP. In Australia, current human milk production levels exceed $3 billion annually. The United States has the potential to produce human milk worth more than US$110 billion a year, but currently nearly two thirds of this value is lost due to premature weaning. In Norway, production valued at US$907 million annually is 60% of its potential value. The potential loss of economic value from not protecting women's lactation and milk production from competing market pressures is large. Failure to account for mothers' milk production in GDP and other economic data has important consequences for public policy. The invisibility of human milk reduces the perceived importance of programs and regulations that protect and support women to breastfeed. The value of human milk can be measured using accepted international guidelines for calculating national income and production. It is quantitatively nontrivial and should be counted in GDP.

Breeding objectives for indigenous chicken: model development and application to different production systems.

PubMed

Okeno, Tobias O; Magothe, Thomas M; Kahi, Alexander K; Peters, Kurt J

2013-01-01

A bio-economic model was developed to evaluate the utilisation of indigenous chickens (IC) under different production systems accounting for the risk attitude of the farmers. The model classified the production systems into three categories based on the level of management: free-range system (FRS), where chickens were left to scavenge for feed resources with no supplementation and healthcare; intensive system (IS), where the chickens were permanently confined and supplied with rationed feed and healthcare; and semi-intensive system (SIS), a hybrid of FRS and IS, where the chickens were partially confined, supplemented with rationed feeds, provided with healthcare and allowed to scavenge within the homestead or in runs. The model allows prediction of the live weights and feed intake at different stages in the life cycle of the IC and can compute the profitability of each production system using both traditional and risk-rated profit models. The input parameters used in the model represent a typical IC production system in developing countries but are flexible and therefore can be modified to suit specific situations and simulate profitability and costs of other poultry species production systems. The model has the capability to derive the economic values as changes in the genetic merit of the biological parameter results in marginal changes in profitability and costs of the production systems. The results suggested that utilisation of IC in their current genetic merit and production environment is more profitable under FRS and SIS but not economically viable under IS.

Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov Websites

precise forecast. The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are input-output based models for assessing economic impacts and jobs, including JEDI (see Chapter 5, pp. 136-142). The most not reflect many other economic impacts that could affect real-world impacts on jobs from the project

Production of biosolid fuels from municipal sewage sludge: Technical and economic optimisation.

PubMed

Wzorek, Małgorzata; Tańczuk, Mariusz

2015-08-01

The article presents the technical and economic analysis of the production of fuels from municipal sewage sludge. The analysis involved the production of two types of fuel compositions: sewage sludge with sawdust (PBT fuel) and sewage sludge with meat and bone meal (PBM fuel). The technology of the production line of these sewage fuels was proposed and analysed. The main objective of the study is to find the optimal production capacity. The optimisation analysis was performed for the adopted technical and economic parameters under Polish conditions. The objective function was set as a maximum of the net present value index and the optimisation procedure was carried out for the fuel production line input capacity from 0.5 to 3 t h(-1), using the search step 0.5 t h(-1). On the basis of technical and economic assumptions, economic efficiency indexes of the investment were determined for the case of optimal line productivity. The results of the optimisation analysis show that under appropriate conditions, such as prices of components and prices of produced fuels, the production of fuels from sewage sludge can be profitable. In the case of PBT fuel, calculated economic indexes show the best profitability for the capacity of a plant over 1.5 t h(-1) output, while production of PBM fuel is beneficial for a plant with the maximum of searched capacities: 3.0 t h(-1). Sensitivity analyses carried out during the investigation show that influence of both technical and economic assessments on the location of maximum of objective function (net present value) is significant. © The Author(s) 2015.

Toward a synthetic economic systems modeling tool for sustainable exploitation of ecosystems.

PubMed

Richardson, Colin; Courvisanos, Jerry; Crawford, John W

2011-02-01

Environmental resources that underpin the basic human needs of water, energy, and food are predicted to become in such short supply by 2050 that global security and the well-being of millions will be under threat. These natural commodities have been allowed to reach crisis levels of supply because of a failure of economic systems to sustain them. This is largely because there have been no means of integrating their exploitation into any economic model that effectively addresses ecological systemic failures in a way that provides an integrated ecological-economic tool that can monitor and evaluate market and policy targets. We review the reasons for this and recent attempts to address the problem while identifying outstanding issues. The key elements of a policy-oriented economic model that integrates ecosystem processes are described and form the basis of a proposed new synthesis approach. The approach is illustrated by an indicative case study that develops a simple model for rainfed and irrigated food production in the Murray-Darling basin of southeastern Australia. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

A fuzzy cost-benefit function to select economical products for processing in a closed-loop supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pochampally, Kishore K.; Gupta, Surendra M.; Cullinane, Thomas P.

2004-02-01

The cost-benefit analysis of data associated with re-processing of used products often involves the uncertainty feature of cash-flow modeling. The data is not objective because of uncertainties in supply, quality and disassembly times of used products. Hence, decision-makers must rely on "fuzzy" data for analysis. The same parties that are involved in the forward supply chain often carry out the collection and re-processing of used products. It is therefore important that the cost-benefit analysis takes the data of both new products and used products into account. In this paper, a fuzzy cost-benefit function is proposed that is used to perform a multi-criteria economic analysis to select the most economical products to process in a closed-loop supply chain. Application of the function is detailed through an illustrative example.

Farm systems assessment of bioenergy feedstock production: Integrating bio-economic models and life cycle analysis approaches

PubMed Central

Glithero, N.J.; Ramsden, S.J.; Wilson, P.

2012-01-01

Climate change and energy security concerns have driven the development of policies that encourage bioenergy production. Meeting EU targets for the consumption of transport fuels from bioenergy by 2020 will require a large increase in the production of bioenergy feedstock. Initially an increase in ‘first generation’ biofuels was observed, however ‘food competition’ concerns have generated interest in second generation biofuels (SGBs). These SGBs can be produced from co-products (e.g. cereal straw) or energy crops (e.g. miscanthus), with the former largely negating food competition concerns. In order to assess the sustainability of feedstock supply for SGBs, the financial, environmental and energy costs and benefits of the farm system must be quantified. Previous research has captured financial costs and benefits through linear programming (LP) approaches, whilst environmental and energy metrics have been largely been undertaken within life cycle analysis (LCA) frameworks. Assessing aspects of the financial, environmental and energy sustainability of supplying co-product second generation biofuel (CPSGB) feedstocks at the farm level requires a framework that permits the trade-offs between these objectives to be quantified and understood. The development of a modelling framework for Managing Energy and Emissions Trade-Offs in Agriculture (MEETA Model) that combines bio-economic process modelling and LCA is presented together with input data parameters obtained from literature and industry sources. The MEETA model quantifies arable farm inputs and outputs in terms of financial, energy and emissions results. The model explicitly captures fertiliser: crop-yield relationships, plus the incorporation of straw or removal for sale, with associated nutrient impacts of incorporation/removal on the following crop in the rotation. Key results of crop-mix, machinery use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per kg of crop product and energy use per hectare are in line with

Calibrating and Updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2014 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

2014-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is an economic model of global production, consumption, and trade of forest products. An earlier version of the model is described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). The GFPM 2014 has data and parameters to simulate changes of the forest sector from 2010 to 2030. Buongiorno and Zhu (2014) describe how to use the model for simulation....

Calibrating and updating the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2016 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai  Zhu

2016-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) is an economic model of global production, consumption, and trade of forest products. An earlier version of the model is described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). The GFPM 2016 has data and parameters to simulate changes of the forest sector from 2013 to 2030. Buongiorno and Zhu (2015) describe how to use the model for...

The economics of dairy production.

PubMed

Wolf, Christopher A

2003-07-01

structure and regional pattern of dairy farm size and production. For the most part, however, the policy effects have been of indirect nature. The Pacific region has grown (despite having the lowest average price) by taking advantage of economies of size by specializing in milking cows. The United States dairy industry is a technologically advanced, well-managed, and economically important sector of United States agriculture. Future challenges include the ability to remain viable economically while dealing with environmental and social sustainability issues in the form of new constraints from formal policies and from consumer perceptions.

Full employment and competition in the Aspen economic model: implications for modeling acts of terrorism.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sprigg, James A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew

2004-11-01

Acts of terrorism could have a range of broad impacts on an economy, including changes in consumer (or demand) confidence and the ability of productive sectors to respond to changes. As a first step toward a model of terrorism-based impacts, we develop here a model of production and employment that characterizes dynamics in ways useful toward understanding how terrorism-based shocks could propagate through the economy; subsequent models will introduce the role of savings and investment into the economy. We use Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool developed at Sandia, to demonstrate for validation purposes that a single-firm economy converges tomore » the known monopoly equilibrium price, output, and employment levels, while multiple-firm economies converge toward the competitive equilibria typified by lower prices and higher output and employment. However, we find that competition also leads to churn by consumers seeking lower prices, making it difficult for firms to optimize with respect to wages, prices, and employment levels. Thus, competitive firms generate market ''noise'' in the steady state as they search for prices and employment levels that will maximize profits. In the context of this model, not only could terrorism depress overall consumer confidence and economic activity but terrorist acts could also cause normal short-run dynamics to be misinterpreted by consumers as a faltering economy.« less

Economics of production efficiency: Nutritional grouping of the lactating cow.

PubMed

Cabrera, V E; Kalantari, A S

2016-01-01

Nutritional grouping of lactating cows under total mixed ration (TMR) feeding systems has been discussed in the literature since 1970. Most studies have concluded that using multiple, more-homogeneous TMR feeding groups is economically beneficial because of either nutrient cost savings, improved productivity, or both. Nonetheless, no consensus has been formed around this technique nor has it been widely adopted. By using optimal criteria for grouping and more precise nutrient specifications of diets, the latest studies have reported a consistently greater income over feed cost ($/cow per year) with multiple TMR groups compared with 1 TMR (3 TMR=$46 and 2 TMR=$21 to $39). Critical factors that determine the economic value of nutritional grouping are: (1) criteria for grouping, (2) nutrient specifications of diets, (3) effects on milk production, (4) health and environmental benefits, (5) number, size, and frequency of grouping, and (6) additional costs and benefits. It has been documented that grouping cows according to their simultaneous nutritional requirements (a.k.a., cluster grouping) is optimal. Cluster grouping is superior to other methods, such as grouping according to days in milk, milk production, or production and body weight combined. However, the dairy industry still uses less-than-optimal grouping criteria. Using cluster grouping will enhance the positive economic effects of multiple TMR. In addition, nutrient specifications of diets for groups do not seem optimal either. Milk lead factors, which are only based on group average milk production, are used. Diets could, however, be formulated more precisely based on overall group nutrient requirements. Providing more precise diets should also be in favor of grouping economics. Furthermore, an area that requires more attention is the potential negative effect of grouping on the milk production of moved cows because of either or both social interactions or diet concentration changes. Although the literature

Estimation of economic values for traits of dairy sheep: I. Model development.

PubMed

Wolfová, M; Wolf, J; Krupová, Z; Kica, J

2009-05-01

A bioeconomic model was developed to estimate effects of change in production and functional traits on profit of dairy or dual-purpose milked sheep under alternative management systems. The flock structure was described in terms of animal categories and probabilities of transitions among them, and a Markov chain approach was used to calculate the stationary state of the resultant ewe flock. The model included both deterministic and stochastic components. Performance for most traits was simulated as the population average, but variation in several traits was taken into account. Management options included lambing intervals, mating system, and culling strategy for ewes, weaning and marketing strategy for progeny, and feeding system. The present value of profit computed as the difference between total revenues and total costs per ewe per year, both discounted to the birth date of the animals, was used as the criterion for economic efficiency of the production system in the stationary state. Economic values (change in system profit per unit change in the trait) of up to 35 milk production, growth, carcass, wool, and functional traits may be estimated.

The environmental and economic impact of removing growth-enhancing technologies from U.S. beef production.

PubMed

Capper, J L; Hayes, D J

2012-10-01

The objective of this study was to quantify the environmental and economic impact of withdrawing growth-enhancing technologies (GET) from the U.S. beef production system. A deterministic model based on the metabolism and nutrient requirements of the beef population was used to quantify resource inputs and waste outputs per 454 × 10(6) kg of beef. Two production systems were compared: one using GET (steroid implants, in-feed ionophores, in-feed hormones, and beta-adrenergic agonists) where approved by FDA at current adoption rates and the other without GET use. Both systems were modeled using characteristic management practices, population dynamics, and production data from U.S. beef systems. The economic impact and global trade and carbon implications of GET withdrawal were calculated based on feed savings. Withdrawing GET from U.S. beef production reduced productivity (growth rate and slaughter weight) and increased the population size required to produce 454 × 10(6) kg beef by 385 × 10(3) animals. Feedstuff and land use were increased by 2,830 × 10(3) t and 265 × 10(3) ha, respectively, by GET withdrawal, with 20,139 × 10(6) more liters of water being required to maintain beef production. Manure output increased by 1,799 × 10(3) t as a result of GET withdrawal, with an increase in carbon emissions of 714,515 t/454 × 10(6) kg beef. The projected increased costs of U.S. beef produced without GET resulted in the effective implementation of an 8.2% tax on beef production, leading to reduced global trade and competitiveness. To compensate for the increase in U.S. beef prices and maintain beef supply, it would be necessary to increase beef production in other global regions, with a projected increase in carbon emissions from deforestation, particularly in Brazil. Withdrawing GET from U.S. beef production would reduce both the economic and environmental sustainability of the industry.

Water security, risk, and economic growth: Insights from a dynamical systems model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim W.; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

2017-08-01

Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been noteworthy in the development of most civilizations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple economic sectors, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy and (ii) by reducing acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate risks and promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior conceptual work on the relationship between water-related investments and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical systems model of water-related investment, risk, and growth. In cases where initial water security is low, initial investment in water-related assets enables growth. Without such investment, losses due to water-related hazards exert a drag on economic growth and may create a poverty trap. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the exposure of productive water-related assets to water-related risk. Exogenous changes in water-related risk can potentially push an economy away from a growth path toward a poverty trap. Our investigation shows that an inverted-U-shaped investment relation between the level of investment in water security and the current level of water security leads to faster rates of growth than the alternatives that we consider here, and that this relation is responsible for the "S"-curve that is posited in the literature. These results illustrate the importance of accounting for environmental and health risks in economic models and offer insights for the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, in the face

Energy production, distribution, and pollution controls: Combining engineering and economic analysis to enhance efficiency and policy design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkis, David F.

Three published articles are presented which focus on enhancing various aspects of the energy supply chain. While each paper adopts a different methodology, all three combine engineering data and/or techniques with economic analysis to improve efficiency or policy design within energy markets. The first paper combines a chemical engineering plant design model with an economic assessment of product enhancements within an ethanol production facility. While a new chemical process is shown to achieve greater ethanol yields, the animal feed by-products are denatured and decrease in value due to the degradation of a key nutritional amino acid. Overall, yield increases outweigh any costs, providing additional value to firms adopting this process. The second paper uses a mixed integer linear model to assess the optimal location of cellulosic ethanol production facilities within the state of Indiana. Desired locations with low costs are linked to regions with high yield corn growth, as these areas provide an abundance of corn stover, a by-product of corn and a cellulosic source of ethanol. The third paper implements experimental economic methods to assess the effectiveness of policies intended to control prices in emissions permit markets. When utilizing reserve permit auctions as an alternative to setting explicit maximum prices, prices are elevated beyond the theoretical predictions of the model within the conditions of the experiment. The most likely cause of higher prices is the negotiating power provided to sellers by grandfathering permits as evidenced by higher than expected welfare gains to sellers. Before presenting the articles, a discussion is introduced regarding the role of assumptions used by economists. For each article, a key assumption is highlighted and the consequences of making a different assumption are provided. Whether the consequences are large or small, the benefits of elucidating our models with assumptions based on real world behaviors are clearly

Economics In Optical Design, Analysis, And Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willey, Ronald R.

1983-10-01

There are indications that we are entering an era wherein economics will play an increasing role in the optical design and production process. Economics has always been a factor in the competition between commercial ventures in the product arena. Now, we may begin to see competition between different technologies for the scarce resources of the society, including money. A proper design approach begins with a thorough examination and refinement of the requirements from the top down. The interrelationships of the various components must be properly understood and balanced. The specifications must be clear, complete, and realistic. Improper or incomplete system design can cause an extensive waste of resources. The detail optical design to meet the performance requirements has sometimes been the only part of the process that the designer has considered his own responsibility. The final optimization should also consider economic related factors: the cost of tolerances, the available tools test plates, materials, and test equipment. In the preliminary design stage, he should have decided which alignment and test methods are most appropriate to the system. The distribution of tolerances in an optical/mechanical system is a frequently neglected opportunity to reduce cost. We have reported previously on our work in this area, and expand further on it in the context of this paper. The designer now has an opportunity to generate better designs at a lower cost that are more economical to produce. The watchword for the 1980's may become the one found in the assembly automation industry: "more, better, for less".

The projected public health and economic impact of vitamin D fortified dairy products for fracture prevention in France.

PubMed

Hiligsmann, Mickael; Reginster, Jean-Yves

2018-04-01

There is a paucity of research that projects the public health and economic impact of healthcare interventions in the future. In this study, we aimed to estimate the public health and economic impact of vitamin D fortified dairy products for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 and 2060. We used a previously validated Markov microsimulation model that was designed to assess the public health and economic impact of dairy products for fracture prevention in the French general population aged over 60 years in the year 2015. The expected benefit (in terms of fractures prevented) of the recommended intake of dairy products compared to the absence of appropriate intake is expected to increase by 63% in 2040 and by 85% in 2060. The cost per quality-adjusted life years gained of the appropriate intake of dairy products is expected to decrease from €58,244 in 2015 to €42,616 in 2060. The potential public health and economic benefits of vitamin D fortified dairy products is expected to substantially increase in the future, especially in the population aged over 80 years. Decision makers should be aware of the current and future potential benefits of dairy products to protect bone fractures.

Quantifying Forest Ecosystem Services Tradeoff—Coupled Ecological and Economic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haff, P. K.; Ling, P. Y.

2015-12-01

Quantification of the effect of carbon-related forestland management activities on ecosystem services is difficult, because knowledge about the dynamics of coupled social-ecological systems is lacking. Different forestland management activities, such as various amount, timing, and methods of harvesting, and natural disturbances events, such as wind and fires, create shocks and uncertainties to the forest carbon dynamics. A spatially explicit model, Landis-ii, was used to model the forest succession for different harvest management scenarios at the Grandfather District, North Carolina. In addition to harvest, the model takes into account of the impact of natural disturbances, such as fire and insects, and species competition. The result shows the storage of carbon in standing biomass and in wood product for each species for each scenario. In this study, optimization is used to analyze the maximum profit and the number of tree species that each forest landowner can gain at different prices of carbon, roundwood, and interest rates for different harvest management scenarios. Time series of roundwood production of different types were estimated using remote sensing data. Econometric analysis is done to understand the possible interaction and relations between the production of different types of roundwood and roundwood prices, which can indicate the possible planting scheme that a forest owner may make. This study quantifies the tradeoffs between carbon sequestration, roundwood production, and forest species diversity not only from an economic perspective, but also takes into account of the forest succession mechanism in a species-diverse region. The resulting economic impact on the forest landowners is likely to influence their future planting decision, which in turn, will influence the species composition and future revenue of the landowners.

Economic assessment of different mulches in conventional and water-saving rice production systems.

PubMed

Jabran, Khawar; Hussain, Mubshar; Fahad, Shah; Farooq, Muhammad; Bajwa, Ali Ahsan; Alharrby, Hesham; Nasim, Wajid

2016-05-01

Water-saving rice production systems including alternate wetting and drying (AWD) and aerobic rice (AR) are being increasingly adopted by growers due to global water crises. Application of natural and artificial mulches may further improve water economy of water-saving rice production systems. Conventionally flooded rice (CFR) system has been rarely compared with AWD and AR in terms of economic returns. In this 2-year field study, we compared CFR with AWD and AR (with and without straw and plastic mulches) for the cost of production and economic benefits. Results indicated that CFR had a higher production cost than AWD and AR. However, application of mulches increased the cost of production of AWD and AR production systems where plastic mulch was expensive than straw mulch. Although the mulching increased the cost of production for AWD and AR, the gross income of these systems was also improved significantly. The gross income from mulched plots of AWD and AR was higher than non-mulched plots of the same systems. In conclusion, AWD and AR effectively reduce cost of production by economizing the water use. However, the use of natural and artificial mulches in such water-saving environments further increased the economic returns. The maximized economic returns by using straw mulch in water-saving rice production systems definitely have pragmatic implications for sustainable agriculture.

An economic order quantity model with shortage and inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wulan, Elis Ratna; Nurjaman, Wildan

2015-09-01

The effect of inflation has become a persistent characteristic and more significant problem of many developing economies especially in the third world countries. While making effort to achieve optimal quantity of product to be produced or purchased using the simplest and on the shelf classical EOQ model, the non-inclusion of conflicting economic realities as shortage and inflation has rendered its result quite uneconomical and hence the purpose for this study. Mathematical expression was developed for each of the cost components the sum of which become the total inventory model over the period (0,L) ((TIC(0,L)). L is planning horizon and TIC(0,L) is total inventory cost over a period of (0,L). Significant savings with increase in quantity was achieved based on deference in the varying price regime. With the assumptions considered and subject to the availability of reliable inventory cost element, the developed model is found to produce a feasible, and economic inventory stock-level with the numerical example of a material supply of a manufacturing company.

Fractal attractors in economic growth models with random pollution externalities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Torre, Davide; Marsiglio, Simone; Privileggi, Fabio

2018-05-01

We analyze a discrete time two-sector economic growth model where the production technologies in the final and human capital sectors are affected by random shocks both directly (via productivity and factor shares) and indirectly (via a pollution externality). We determine the optimal dynamics in the decentralized economy and show how these dynamics can be described in terms of a two-dimensional affine iterated function system with probability. This allows us to identify a suitable parameter configuration capable of generating exactly the classical Barnsley's fern as the attractor of the log-linearized optimal dynamical system.

Multi-basin, Multi-sector Drought Economic Impact Model in Python: Development and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Bearden, B.; Johnson, T. G.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the most economically disastrous natural hazards, one whose impacts are exacerbated by the lack of abrupt onset and offset that define tornados and hurricanes. In the United States, about 30 billion dollars losses is caused by drought in 2012, resulting in widespread economic impacts for societies, industries, agriculture, and recreation. And in California, the drought cost statewide economic losses about 2.2 billion, with a total loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs. Driven by a variety of factors including climate change, population growth, increased water demands, alteration to land cover, drought occurs widely all over the world. Drought economic consequence assessment tool are greatly needed to allow decision makers and stakeholders to anticipate and manage effectively. In this study, current drought economic impact modeling methods were reviewed. Most of these models only deal with the impact in the agricultural sector with a focus on a single basin; few of these models analyze long term impact. However, drought impacts are rarely restricted to basin boundaries, and cascading economic impacts are likely to be significant. A holistic approach to multi-basin, multi-sector drought economic impact assessment is needed.In this work, we developed a new model for drought economic impact assessment, Drought Economic Impact Model in Python (PyDEM). This model classified all business establishments into thirteen categories based on NAICS, and using a continuous dynamic social accounting matrix approach, coupled with calculation of the indirect consequences for the local and regional economies and the various resilience. In addition, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model was combined for analyzing drought caused soil erosion together with agriculture production, and then the long term impacts of drought were achieved. A visible output of this model was presented in GIS. In this presentation, Choctawhatchee-Pea-Yellow River Basins, Alabama

Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

2016-04-01

Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been a noteworthy feature in the development of most civilisations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple sectors of the economy, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy; and (ii) by reducing the acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate these risks in order to promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior work to conceptualise the relationship between water-related risks and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical model of water-related investment, risk, and growth at the national level. The model suggests the existence of a context-specific threshold above which growth proceeds along an 'S'-curve. In many cases there is a requirement for initial investment in water-related assets to enable growth. Below the threshold it is possible for a poverty trap to arise. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the relative exposure of productive water-related assets to risk, compared with risks faced by assets in the wider economy. Exogenous changes in the level of water-related risk (through, for example, climate and land cover change) can potentially push an economy away from a growth path towards a poverty trap. These results illustrate the value of accounting for environmental risk in models of economic growth and may offer guidance in the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, particularly in the face of global and regional environmental change.

Economic feasibility analysis of conventional and dedicated energy crop production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, R.G.; Langemeier, M.R.; Krehbiel, L.R.

Economic feasibilities (net return per acre) associated with conventional agricultural crop production versus that of dedicated bioenergy crop (herbaceous energy crops) were investigated for northeastern Kansas. Conventional agricultural crops examined were corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum and alfalfa and dedicated herbaceous energy crops included big bluestem/indiangrass, switchgrass, eastern gamagrass, brome, fescue and cane hay. Costs, prices and government program information from public and private sources were used to project the net return per acre over a six-year period beginning in 1997. Three soil productivity levels (low, average and high), which had a direct effect on the net return per acre, weremore » used to model differences in expected yield. In all three soil productivity cases, big bluestem/indiangrass, switchgrass and brome hay provided a higher net return per acre versus conventional crops grown on both program and non-program acres. Eastern gamagrass, fescue hay and cane hay had returns that were similar or less than returns provided by conventional crops.« less

JEDI Wind Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Wind Models JEDI Wind Models The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Wind model allows the user to estimate economic development impacts from wind power generation projects. JEDI Wind has default information that can be used to run a generic impacts analysis assuming wind industry averages

Economic feasibility and environmental impact of synthetic spider silk production from escherichia coli.

PubMed

Edlund, Alan M; Jones, Justin; Lewis, Randolph; Quinn, Jason C

2018-05-25

Major ampullate spider silk represents a promising protein-based biomaterial with diverse commercial potential ranging from textiles to medical devices due to its excellent physical and thermal properties. Recent advancements in synthetic biology have facilitated the development of recombinant spider silk proteins from Escherichia coli (E. coli). This study specifically investigates the economic feasibility and environmental impact of synthetic spider silk manufacturing. Pilot scale data was used to validate an engineering process model that includes all of the required sub-processing steps for synthetic fiber manufacture: production, harvesting, purification, drying, and spinning. Modeling was constructed modularly to support assessment of alternative downstream processing technologies. The techno-economic analysis indicates a minimum sale price from pioneer and optimized E. coli plants of $761 kg -1 and $23 kg -1 with greenhouse gas emissions of 572 kg CO 2-eq. kg -1 and 55 kg CO 2-eq. kg -1 , respectively. Elevated costs and emissions from the pioneer plant can be directly tied to the high material consumption and low protein yield. Decreased production costs associated with the optimized plant includes improved protein yield, process optimization, and an N th plant assumption. Discussion focuses on the commercial potential of spider silk, the production performance requirements for commercialization, and the impact of alternative technologies on the system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Network model of project "Lean Production"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khisamova, E. D.

2018-05-01

Economical production implies primarily new approaches to culture of management and organization of production and offers a set of tools and techniques that allows reducing losses significantly and making the process cheaper and faster. Economical production tools are simple solutions that allow one to see opportunities for improvement of all aspects of the business, to reduce losses significantly, to constantly improve the whole spectrum of business processes, to increase significantly the transparency and manageability of the organization, to take advantage of the potential of each employee of the company, to increase competitiveness, and to obtain significant economic benefits without making large financial expenditures. Each of economical production tools solves a specific part of the problems, and only application of their combination will allow one to solve the problem or minimize it to acceptable values. The research of the governance process project "Lean Production" permitted studying the methods and tools of lean production and developing measures for their improvement.

Growth promoting antibiotics in food animal production: an economic analysis.

PubMed

Graham, Jay P; Boland, John J; Silbergeld, Ellen

2007-01-01

Considerable controversy persists regarding the use of human antibiotics to promote growth in animals raised for food. The authors examined the economic effect of removing antibiotics used for growth promotion in commercial broiler chickens. The authors utilized data published by the Perdue company, the fourth largest poultry producer in the United States, in which a non-randomized controlled trial of growth-promoting antibiotic (GPA) use was conducted with seven million broiler chickens to evaluate the impact of removing GPAs on production. Positive production changes were associated with GPA use, but were insufficient to offset the cost of the antibiotics. The net effect of using GPAs was a lost value of 0.0093 dollars per chicken (about 0.45% of total cost). Based upon these data, the authors found no basis for the claim that the use of GPAs lowers the cost of production. Note that this study does not include veterinary cost changes or changes in performance variability associated with the removal of GPAs. This economic analysis is the first study to the authors' knowledge utilizing large-scale empirical data collected by U.S. industry, in which it is demonstrated that the use of GPAs in poultry production is associated with economic losses to the producers. These data are of considerable importance in the ongoing national debate concerning the continued use of antibiotics for growth promotion of food animals. Based on the industry study and the resulting economic impact, the use of GPAs in U.S. poultry production should be reconsidered.

PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION OF DIETARY PROTEIN AND CARBOHYDRATE IN THE CULTURE OF JUVENILE SEA URCHIN Lytechinus variegatus

PubMed Central

Heflin, Laura E.; Makowsky, Robert; Taylor, J. Christopher; Williams, Michael B.; Lawrence, Addison L.; Watts, Stephen A.

2016-01-01

Juvenile Lytechinus variegatus (ca. 3.95± 0.54 g) were fed one of 10 formulated diets with different protein (ranging from 11- 43%) and carbohydrate (12 or 18%; brackets determined from previous studies) levels. Urchins (n= 16 per treatment) were fed a daily sub-satiation ration equivalent to 2.0% of average body weight for 10 weeks. Our objective was (1) to create predictive models of growth, production and efficiency outcomes and (2) to generate economic analysis models in relation to these dietary outcomes for juvenile L. variegatus held in culture. At dietary protein levels below ca. 30%, models for most growth and production outcomes predicted increased rates of growth and production among urchins fed diets containing 18% dietary carbohydrate levels as compared to urchins fed diets containing 12% dietary carbohydrate. For most outcomes, growth and production was predicted to increase with increasing level of dietary protein up to ca. 30%, after which, no further increase in growth and production were predicted. Likewise, dry matter production efficiency was predicted to increase with increasing protein level up to ca. 30%, with urchins fed diets with 18% carbohydrate exhibiting greater efficiency than those fed diets with 12% carbohydrate. The energetic cost of dry matter production was optimal at protein levels less than those required for maximal weight gain and gonad production, suggesting an increased energetic cost (decreased energy efficiency) is required to increase gonad production relative to somatic growth. Economic analysis models predict when cost of feed ingredients are low, the lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 18% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 25- 30% dietary protein. In contrast, lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 12% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 35- 40% dietary protein when feed ingredient costs are high or average. For both 18 and 12% levels of dietary carbohydrate, cost per gram of wet weight gain is

PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION OF DIETARY PROTEIN AND CARBOHYDRATE IN THE CULTURE OF JUVENILE SEA URCHIN Lytechinus variegatus.

PubMed

Heflin, Laura E; Makowsky, Robert; Taylor, J Christopher; Williams, Michael B; Lawrence, Addison L; Watts, Stephen A

2016-10-01

Juvenile Lytechinus variegatus (ca. 3.95± 0.54 g) were fed one of 10 formulated diets with different protein (ranging from 11- 43%) and carbohydrate (12 or 18%; brackets determined from previous studies) levels. Urchins (n= 16 per treatment) were fed a daily sub-satiation ration equivalent to 2.0% of average body weight for 10 weeks. Our objective was (1) to create predictive models of growth, production and efficiency outcomes and (2) to generate economic analysis models in relation to these dietary outcomes for juvenile L. variegatus held in culture. At dietary protein levels below ca. 30%, models for most growth and production outcomes predicted increased rates of growth and production among urchins fed diets containing 18% dietary carbohydrate levels as compared to urchins fed diets containing 12% dietary carbohydrate. For most outcomes, growth and production was predicted to increase with increasing level of dietary protein up to ca. 30%, after which, no further increase in growth and production were predicted. Likewise, dry matter production efficiency was predicted to increase with increasing protein level up to ca. 30%, with urchins fed diets with 18% carbohydrate exhibiting greater efficiency than those fed diets with 12% carbohydrate. The energetic cost of dry matter production was optimal at protein levels less than those required for maximal weight gain and gonad production, suggesting an increased energetic cost (decreased energy efficiency) is required to increase gonad production relative to somatic growth. Economic analysis models predict when cost of feed ingredients are low, the lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 18% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 25- 30% dietary protein. In contrast, lowest cost per gram of wet weight gain will occur at 12% dietary carbohydrate and ca. 35- 40% dietary protein when feed ingredient costs are high or average. For both 18 and 12% levels of dietary carbohydrate, cost per gram of wet weight gain is

A process economic assessment of hydrocarbon biofuels production using chemoautotrophic organisms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khan, NE; Myers, JA; Tuerk, AL

Economic analysis of an ARPA-e Electrofuels (http://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=arpa-e-programs/electrofuels) process is presented, utilizing metabolically engineered Rhodobacter capsulatus or Ralstonia eutropha to produce the C30+ hydrocarbon fuel, botryococcene, from hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and oxygen. The analysis is based on an Aspen plus (R) bioreactor model taking into account experimentally determined Rba. capsulatus and Rls. eutropha growth and maintenance requirements, reactor residence time, correlations for gas-liquid mass-transfer coefficient, gas composition, and specific cellular fuel productivity. Based on reactor simulation results encompassing technically relevant parameter ranges, the capital and operating costs of the process were estimated for 5000 bbl-fuel/day plant and used to predict fuelmore » cost. Under the assumptions used in this analysis and crude oil prices, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) required for economic feasibility must be less than 2(sic)/kWh. While not feasible under current market prices and costs, this work identifies key variables impacting process cost and discusses potential alternative paths toward economic feasibility. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less

Economic modelling of grazing management against gastrointestinal nematodes in dairy cattle.

PubMed

van der Voort, M; Van Meensel, J; Lauwers, L; de Haan, M H A; Evers, A G; Van Huylenbroeck, G; Charlier, J

2017-03-15

Grazing management (GM) interventions, such as reducing the grazing time or mowing pasture before grazing, have been proposed to limit the exposure to gastrointestinal (GI) nematode infections in grazed livestock. However, the farm-level economic effects of these interventions have not yet been assessed. In this paper, the economic effects of three GM interventions in adult dairy cattle were modelled for a set of Flemish farms: later turnout on pasture (GM1), earlier housing near the end of the grazing season (GM2), and reducing the daily grazing time (GM3). Farm accountancy data were linked to Ostertagia ostertagi bulk tank milk ELISA results and GM data for 137 farms. The economic effects of the GM interventions were investigated through a combination of efficiency analysis and a whole-farm simulation model. Modelling of GM1, GM2 and GM3 resulted in a marginal economic effect of € 8.36, € -9.05 and € -53.37 per cow per year, respectively. The results suggest that the dairy farms can improve their economic performance by postponing the turnout date, but that advancing the housing date or reducing daily grazing time mostly leads to a lower net economic farm performance. Overall, the GM interventions resulted in a higher technical efficiency and milk production but these benefits were offset by increased feed costs as a result of higher maintenance and cultivation costs. Because the results differed highly between farms, GM interventions need to be evaluated at the individual level for appropriate decision support. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projecting county pulpwood production with historical production and macro-economic variables

Treesearch

Consuelo Brandeis; Dayton M. Lambert

2014-01-01

We explored forecasting of county roundwood pulpwood produc-tion with county-vector autoregressive (CVAR) and spatial panelvector autoregressive (SPVAR) methods. The analysis used timberproducts output data for the state of Florida, together with a set ofmacro-economic variables. Overall, we found the SPVAR specifica-tion produced forecasts with lower error rates...

A satellite-driven, client-server hydro-economic model prototype for agricultural water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; He, Mingzhu; Payton Gardner, W.

2017-04-01

Anticipating agricultural water demand, land reallocation, and impact on farm revenues associated with different policy or climate constraints is a challenge for water managers and for policy makers. While current integrated decision support systems based on programming methods provide estimates of farmer reaction to external constraints, they have important shortcomings such as the high cost of data collection surveys necessary to calibrate the model, biases associated with inadequate farm sampling, infrequent model updates and recalibration, model overfitting, or their deterministic nature, among other problems. In addition, the administration of water supplies and the generation of policies that promote sustainable agricultural regions depend on more than one bureau or office. Unfortunately, managers from local and regional agencies often use different datasets of variable quality, which complicates coordinated action. To overcome these limitations, we present a client-server, integrated hydro-economic modeling and observation framework driven by satellite remote sensing and other ancillary information from regional monitoring networks. The core of the framework is a stochastic data assimilation system that sequentially ingests remote sensing observations and corrects the parameters of the hydro-economic model at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions. An economic model of agricultural production, based on mathematical programming, requires information on crop type and extent, crop yield, crop transpiration and irrigation technology. A regional hydro-climatologic model provides biophysical constraints to an economic model of agricultural production with a level of detail that permits the study of the spatial impact of large- and small-scale water use decisions. Crop type and extent is obtained from the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), which is multi-sensor operational classification of crops maintained by the United States Department of Agriculture. Because

The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monaco, Andrew J.

2018-01-01

The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

Automated Decisional Model for Optimum Economic Order Quantity Determination Using Price Regressive Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roşu, M. M.; Tarbă, C. I.; Neagu, C.

2016-11-01

The current models for inventory management are complementary, but together they offer a large pallet of elements for solving complex problems of companies when wanting to establish the optimum economic order quantity for unfinished products, row of materials, goods etc. The main objective of this paper is to elaborate an automated decisional model for the calculus of the economic order quantity taking into account the price regressive rates for the total order quantity. This model has two main objectives: first, to determine the periodicity when to be done the order n or the quantity order q; second, to determine the levels of stock: lighting control, security stock etc. In this way we can provide the answer to two fundamental questions: How much must be ordered? When to Order? In the current practice, the business relationships with its suppliers are based on regressive rates for price. This means that suppliers may grant discounts, from a certain level of quantities ordered. Thus, the unit price of the products is a variable which depends on the order size. So, the most important element for choosing the optimum for the economic order quantity is the total cost for ordering and this cost depends on the following elements: the medium price per units, the stock cost, the ordering cost etc.

Measuring economic complexity of countries and products: which metric to use?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Vidmer, Alexandre; Medo, Matsúš; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2015-11-01

Evaluating the economies of countries and their relations with products in the global market is a central problem in economics, with far-reaching implications to our theoretical understanding of the international trade as well as to practical applications, such as policy making and financial investment planning. The recent Economic Complexity approach aims to quantify the competitiveness of countries and the quality of the exported products based on the empirical observation that the most competitive countries have diversified exports, whereas developing countries only export few low quality products - typically those exported by many other countries. Two different metrics, Fitness-Complexity and the Method of Reflections, have been proposed to measure country and product score in the Economic Complexity framework. We use international trade data and a recent ranking evaluation measure to quantitatively compare the ability of the two metrics to rank countries and products according to their importance in the network. The results show that the Fitness-Complexity metric outperforms the Method of Reflections in both the ranking of products and the ranking of countries. We also investigate a generalization of the Fitness-Complexity metric and show that it can produce improved rankings provided that the input data are reliable.

Determination of Economic Lot Size between Suppliers and Manufacturers for Imperfect Production System with Probabilistic Demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuniar, S.; Wangsaputra, R.; Sinaga, A. T.

2018-03-01

This study aims to develop a combined economical lot size model between supplier and manufacturer for imperfect production processes with probabilistic demand patterns and constant lead times. The supplier side produces the product within a certain time interval then sent to the manufacturer with a certain amount of lot size. Imperfect supplier production systems are characterized by the probability of defective product (γ). The model decision variables are the lot size of the manufacturer's ordering, supplier lot size, and the reorder point of the manufacturer. The optimal decision variables are obtained by minimizing the total expected cost of the combined costs between the suppliers and the manufacturers borne by both parties. The model is built compared to the transactional partnership model, in which the supplier does not participate in the efficiency of its inventory system. A numerical example is given as an illustration of the JELS model and the transactional partnership model. Sensitivity analysis of the model is done by changing the parameters aimed at analyzing the behavior of the developed model.

Artemisinin resistance--modelling the potential human and economic costs.

PubMed

Lubell, Yoel; Dondorp, Arjen; Guérin, Philippe J; Drake, Tom; Meek, Sylvia; Ashley, Elizabeth; Day, Nicholas P J; White, Nicholas J; White, Lisa J

2014-11-23

Artemisinin combination therapy is recommended as first-line treatment for falciparum malaria across the endemic world and is increasingly relied upon for treating vivax malaria where chloroquine is failing. Artemisinin resistance was first detected in western Cambodia in 2007, and is now confirmed in the Greater Mekong region, raising the spectre of a malaria resurgence that could undo a decade of progress in control, and threaten the feasibility of elimination. The magnitude of this threat has not been quantified. This analysis compares the health and economic consequences of two future scenarios occurring once artemisinin-based treatments are available with high coverage. In the first scenario, artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) is largely effective in the management of uncomplicated malaria and severe malaria is treated with artesunate, while in the second scenario ACT are failing at a rate of 30%, and treatment of severe malaria reverts to quinine. The model is applied to all malaria-endemic countries using their specific estimates for malaria incidence, transmission intensity and GDP. The model describes the direct medical costs for repeated diagnosis and retreatment of clinical failures as well as admission costs for severe malaria. For productivity losses, the conservative friction costing method is used, which assumes a limited economic impact for individuals that are no longer economically active until they are replaced from the unemployment pool. Using conservative assumptions and parameter estimates, the model projects an excess of 116,000 deaths annually in the scenario of widespread artemisinin resistance. The predicted medical costs for retreatment of clinical failures and for management of severe malaria exceed US$32 million per year. Productivity losses resulting from excess morbidity and mortality were estimated at US$385 million for each year during which failing ACT remained in use as first-line treatment. These 'ballpark' figures for the

Price elasticity of tobacco products among economic classes in India, 2011-2012.

PubMed

Selvaraj, Sakthivel; Srivastava, Swati; Karan, Anup

2015-12-09

The objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the pattern of price elasticity of three major tobacco products (bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco) by economic groups of population based on household monthly per capita consumption expenditure in India and (2) assess the effect of tax increases on tobacco consumption and revenue across expenditure groups. Data from the 2011-2012 nationally representative Consumer Expenditure Survey from 101,662 Indian households were used. Households which consumed any tobacco or alcohol product were retained in final models. The study draws theoretical frameworks from a model using the augmented utility function of consumer behaviour, with a two-stage two-equation system of unit values and budget shares. Primary outcome measures were price elasticity of demand for different tobacco products for three hierarchical economic groups of population and change in tax revenue due to changes in tax structure. We finally estimated price elasticity of demand for bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco and effects of changes in their tax rates on demand for these tobacco products and tax revenue. Own price elasticities for bidi were highest in the poorest group (-0.4328) and lowest in the richest group (-0.0815). Cigarette own price elasticities were -0.832 in the poorest group and -0.2645 in the richest group. Leaf tobacco elasticities were highest in the poorest (-0.557) and middle (-0.4537) groups. Poorer group elasticities were the highest, indicating that poorer consumers are more price responsive. Elasticity estimates show positive distributional effects of uniform bidi and cigarette taxation on the poorest consumers, as their consumption is affected the most due to increases in taxation. Leaf tobacco also displayed moderate elasticities in poor and middle tertiles, suggesting that tax increases may result in a trade-off between consumption decline and revenue generation. A broad spectrum rise in tax rates across all products is critical for

Economic impacts of reduced milk production associated with papillomatous digital dermatitis in dairy cows in the USA.

PubMed

Losinger, Willard C

2006-05-01

The goal of this study was to measure the economic impacts of reduced milk production associated with papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD) in dairy cows in the USA, and of specific risk factors for PDD, in 1996. The method applied was an economic-welfare analysis of producer and consumer surplus, with the GUM Workbench used to analyse uncertainties in the measurements. Reduced milk production associated with PDD was found to reduce consumer surplus by Dollars 750 million +/- Dollars 580 million, and to increase the economic surplus of producers by Dollars 560 million +/- Dollars 470 million, with a net economic loss of Dollars 190 million +/- Dollars 130 million. An examination of the economic effects of specific epidemiologic risk factors for PDD showed that having dairy cows that were not born on the operation had important economic consequences associated with the disease, as did the type of land to which dairy cows had access during the winter months and the type of flooring on which cows walked. Washing hoof-trimming equipment between cows was an important biosecurity measure that was associated with reduced PDD. The epidemiologic model used also implicated hoof trimmers who trimmed cattle hooves on other operations as having an important economic impact associated with this disease, although this finding may have been erroneous.

Quantifying the economic burden of productivity loss in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Filipovic, Ivana; Walker, David; Forster, Fiona; Curry, Alistair S

2011-06-01

In light of the large number of recent studies and systematic reviews investigating the cost of RA, this article examines the methods used to assess the impact of RA on employment and work productivity, and provides an overview of the issues surrounding work productivity loss in the RA population. A review of the published literature was conducted in order to identify relevant articles. These articles were then reviewed and their methodologies compared. The various methods used to calculate economic loss were then explained and discussed. We found that although methods of lost productivity and associated costs varied between studies, all suggest that RA is associated with significant burden of illness. Economic analyses that exclude indirect costs will therefore underestimate the full economic impact of RA. However, the methods used to calculate productivity loss have a significant impact on the results of indirect cost analyses, and should be selected carefully when designing such studies. Several factors relating to the disease, the job and socio-demographics have been found to predict work disability. Consideration of these factors is vital when measuring the extent of both absenteeism and presenteeism, and will allow for more accurate estimation of the impact of RA on work productivity. This information may also guide interventions aiming to prevent or postpone work disability and job loss.

Enhancing the economic value and consumer preferences of commercial mondol stingray (Himantura gerardi) leather creative products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahubawa, L.; Pertiwiningrum, A.; Rahmadian, Y.

2018-03-01

The research objectives were to design, assess the economic value and consumer preference level of stingray leather products. The research method included a product design, analysis of economic value and consumer preferences. Mondol stingray (Himantura gerardi) leather, with a length of 50 cm and width of 30 cm, were processed into ID card wallet, man and women’s wallet and key holder. The number of respondents involved to analyze the preference level is 75 respondents (students, lecturers and employees of Universitas Gadjah Mada). Indicators of consumer preferences were model, color, price and purchasing power. The price of ID card wallet is Rp. 450,000; women wallet is Rp. 650,000 and a key holder is Rp. 300,000. Consumer preferences on ID card wallet were as follow: 84 % stated very interesting model; 83 % stated very interesting color; 61 % stated cheap and 53 % had enough. Consumer preferences of women’s wallet were as follow: 81 % stated very interesting model; 84 % stated very interesting color; 56 % stated cheap and 57 % had enough. Consumer preferences on key holder were as follow: 49 % stated interesting model; 72 % stated very interesting color; 61 % stated cheap and 57 % had enough.

Technical-economic modelling of integrated water management: wastewater reuse in a French island.

PubMed

Xu, P; Valette, F; Brissaud, F; Fazio, A; Lazarova, V

2001-01-01

An integrated technical-economic model is used to address water management issues in the French island of Noirmoutier. The model simulates potable water production and supply, potable and non potable water demand and consumption, wastewater collection, treatment and disposal, water storage, transportation and reuse. A variety of water management scenarios is assessed through technical, economic and environmental evaluation. The scenarios include wastewater reclamation and reuse for agricultural and landscape irrigation as well as domestic non potable application, desalination of seawater and brackish groundwater for potable water supply. The study shows that, in Noirmoutier, wastewater reclamation and reuse for crop irrigation is the most cost-effective solution to the lack of water resources and the protection of sensitive environment. Some water management projects which are regarded as having less economic benefit in the short-term may become competitive in the future, as a result of tightened environmental policy, changed public attitudes and advanced water treatment technologies. The model provides an appropriate tool for water resources planning and management.

JEDI Publications | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

use of, or sometimes a discussion of, the JEDI models and their application to economic impact model. 2015 JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model (Factsheet). 2015. NREL/FS-5000-64129 Economic Development Impact (JEDI) User Reference Guide: Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model. NREL/TP-6A20

The cost of clinical mastitis in the first 30 days of lactation: An economic modeling tool.

PubMed

Rollin, E; Dhuyvetter, K C; Overton, M W

2015-12-01

Clinical mastitis results in considerable economic losses for dairy producers and is most commonly diagnosed in early lactation. The objective of this research was to estimate the economic impact of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation for a representative US dairy. A deterministic partial budget model was created to estimate direct and indirect costs per case of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation. Model inputs were selected from the available literature, or when none were available, from herd data. The average case of clinical mastitis resulted in a total economic cost of $444, including $128 in direct costs and $316 in indirect costs. Direct costs included diagnostics ($10), therapeutics ($36), non-saleable milk ($25), veterinary service ($4), labor ($21), and death loss ($32). Indirect costs included future milk production loss ($125), premature culling and replacement loss ($182), and future reproductive loss ($9). Accurate decision making regarding mastitis control relies on understanding the economic impacts of clinical mastitis, especially the longer term indirect costs that represent 71% of the total cost per case of mastitis. Future milk production loss represents 28% of total cost, and future culling and replacement loss represents 41% of the total cost of a case of clinical mastitis. In contrast to older estimates, these values represent the current dairy economic climate, including milk price ($0.461/kg), feed price ($0.279/kg DM (dry matter)), and replacement costs ($2,094/head), along with the latest published estimates on the production and culling effects of clinical mastitis. This economic model is designed to be customized for specific dairy producers and their herd characteristics to better aid them in developing mastitis control strategies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydro-Economic Modeling with Minimum Data Requirements: An Application to the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, M.; Maneta, M.; Vosti, S.; Wallender, W.; Howitt, R.

2008-12-01

Policymakers have been charged with the efficient, equitable, and sustainable use of water resources of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB), Brazil, and also with the promotion of economic growth and the reduction of poverty within the basin. To date, policymakers lack scientific evidence on the potential consequences for growth, poverty alleviation or environmental sustainability of alternative uses of water resources. To address these key knowledge gaps, we have linked a hydrologic and an economic model of agriculture to investigate how economic decisions affect available water, and vice versa. More specifically, the models are used to predict the effects of the application of Brazilian federal surface water use policies on farmer's net revenues and on the hydrologic system. The Economic Model of Agriculture. A spatially explicit, farm-level model capable of accommodating a broad array of farm sizes and farm/farmer characteristics is developed and used to predict the effects of alternative water policies and neighbors' water use patterns on crop mix choice. A production function comprised of seven categories of non-water-related inputs used in agriculture (land, fertilizers, pesticides, seeds, hired labor, family labor and machinery) and four water-related inputs used in agriculture (applied water, irrigation labor, irrigation capital and energy) is estimated. The parameters emerging from this estimated production function are then introduced into a non-linear, net revenue maximization positive mathematical programming algorithm that is used for simulations. The Hydrological Model. MIKE Basin, a semi-distributed hydrology model, is used to calculate water budgets for the SFRB. MIKE Basin calculates discharge at selected nodes by accumulating runoff down the river network; it simulates reservoirs using stage-area-storage and downstream release rule curves. The data used to run the model are discharge to calculate local runoff, precipitation, reference ET, crop

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

PubMed

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holmes, Bryan

1976-01-01

Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

Can cognitive science create a cognitive economics?

PubMed

Chater, Nick

2015-02-01

Cognitive science can intersect with economics in at least three productive ways: by providing richer models of individual behaviour for use in economic analysis; by drawing from economic theory in order to model distributed cognition; and jointly to create more powerful 'rational' models of cognitive processes and social interaction. There is the prospect of moving from behavioural economics to a genuinely cognitive economics. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A Cost Framework for the Economic Feasibility of Wide-Scale Biochar Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourhashem, G.; Masiello, C. A.; Medlock, K. B., III

2017-12-01

Biochar is a product of biomass pyrolysis, one of the main thermal pathways of producing biofuels. In addition to sequestering carbon, biochar's soil application helps sustainable agriculture by enhancing soil's structure and ecological functions, as well as lowering NO release from fertilized soils. However, wide-scale biochar land amendment has been limited in part due to its high cost. To examine biochar's cost dynamics, we develop a comprehensive framework for a representative biochar production facility and identify system inputs that are the key drivers of cost and profitability. We assess the production cost of fast and slow pyrolysis-biochar considering a range of parameters e.g. biomass type, process design and scale. We analyzed techno-economic cost data for producing biochar using simulated data from academic literature, and active producer data collected under confidentiality agreement. The combined approach was used to enhance the depth of the dataset and allowed for a reasonable check on published simulated data. Fast and slow pyrolysis have different biofuel and biochar yields and profit. A slow pyrolysis facility recovers its expenses mainly through biochar sale while a fast pyrolysis facility generates its primary revenue through biofuel sale, largely considering biochar a byproduct. Unlike fast pyrolysis that has received most attention in techno-economic studies, publicly available techno-economic data of slow pyrolysis is sparse. This limits the ability to run a thorough cost-benefit analysis to inform the feasibility of wider adoption of biochar for capturing its carbon sequestration and broader environmental benefits. Our model allows for consideration of various market-based policy instruments and can be used as an analytical decision making tool for investors and policy makers to estimate the cost and optimum facility size. This dynamic framework can also be adapted to account for the availability of new data as technology improves and

Using the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2016 with BPMPD)

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai   Zhu

2016-01-01

 The GFPM is an economic model of global production, consumption and trade of forest products. The original formulation and several applications are described in Buongiorno et al. (2003). However, subsequent versions, including the GFPM 2016 reflect significant changes and extensions. The GFPM 2016 software uses the...

Interpreting JEDI Results | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov Websites

NREL Interpreting JEDI Results Interpreting JEDI Results The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models estimate the number of jobs and economic impacts associated with power generation Economic activity in input-output models is typically assessed in three categories. NREL's JEDI models

Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

2013-10-01

Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grames, J.; Prskawetz, A.; Grass, D.; Blöschl, G.

2015-06-01

Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

Crop diversity effects on productivity and economic returns under dryland agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing crop diversity has been identified as a method to improve agronomic performance of cropping systems and increase provision of ecosystem services. However, there is a need to understand the economic performance of more diverse cropping systems. Crop productivity and economic net returns we...

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.

2013-06-28

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overviewmore » of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.« less

[HERA-QUEST: HTA evaluation of generic pharmaceutical products to improve quality, economic efficiency, patient safety and transparency in drug product changes in hospitals].

PubMed

Gyalrong-Steur, Miriam; Kellermann, Anita; Bernard, Rudolf; Berndt, Georg; Bindemann, Meike; Nusser-Rothermundt, Elfriede; Amann, Steffen; Brakebusch, Myga; Brüggmann, Jörg; Tydecks, Eva; Müller, Markus; Dörje, Frank; Kochs, Eberhard; Riedel, Rainer

2017-04-01

In view of the rising cost pressure and an increasing number of drug shortages, switches between generic drug preparations have become a daily routine in hospitals. To ensure consistently high treatment quality and best possible patient safety, the equivalence of the new and the previous drug preparation must be ensured before any change in the purchase of pharmaceutical products takes place. So far, no easily usable, transparent and standardized instrument for this kind of comparison between generic drug products has been available. A group of pharmaceutical experts has developed the drug HTA (health technology assessment) model "HERA" (HTA Evaluation of geneRic phArmaceutical products) through a multi-step process. The instrument is designed to perform both a qualitative and economic comparison of equivalent drug preparations ("aut idem" substitution) before switching products. The economic evaluation does not only consider unit prices and consumption quantity, but also the processing costs associated with a product change process. The qualitative comparison is based on the evaluation of 34 quality criteria belonging to six evaluation fields (e.g., approval status, practical handling, packaging design). The objective evaluation of the quality criteria is complemented by an assessment of special features of the individual hospital for complex drug switches, including the feedback of the physicians utilizing the drug preparation. Thus potentially problematic switches of pharmaceutical products can be avoided at the best possible rate, contributing to the improvement of patient safety. The novel drug HTA model HERA is a tool used in clinical practice that can add to an increase in quality, therapeutic safety and transparency of drug use while simultaneously contributing to the economic optimization of drug procurement in hospitals. Combining these two is essential for hospitals facing the tension between rising cost pressure and at the same time increasing demands

The nutrition intervention improved adult human capital and economic productivity.

PubMed

Martorell, Reynaldo; Melgar, Paul; Maluccio, John A; Stein, Aryeh D; Rivera, Juan A

2010-02-01

This article reviews key findings about the long-term impact of a nutrition intervention carried out by the Institute of Nutrition of Central America and Panama from 1969 to 1977. Results from follow-up studies in 1988-89 and 2002-04 show substantial impact on adult human capital and economic productivity. The 1988-89 study showed that adult body size and work capacity increased for those provided improved nutrition through age 3 y, whereas the 2002-04 follow-up showed that schooling was increased for women and reading comprehension and intelligence increased in both men and women. Participants were 26-42 y of age at the time of the 2002-04 follow-up, facilitating the assessment of economic productivity. Wages of men increased by 46% in those provided with improved nutrition through age 2 y. Findings for cardiovascular disease risk factors were heterogeneous; however, they suggest that improved nutrition in early life is unlikely to increase cardiovascular disease risk later in life and may indeed lower risk. In conclusion, the substantial improvement in adult human capital and economic productivity resulting from the nutrition intervention provides a powerful argument for promoting improvements in nutrition in pregnant women and young children.

Environmental, economic and social impact of aviation biofuel production in Brazil.

PubMed

Cremonez, Paulo André; Feroldi, Michael; de Jesus de Oliveira, Carlos; Teleken, Joel Gustavo; Alves, Helton José; Sampaio, Silvio Cézar

2015-03-25

The Brazilian aviation industry is currently developing biofuel technologies that can maintain the operational and energy demands of the sector, while reducing the dependence on fossil fuels (mainly kerosene) and greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of the current research was to identify the major environmental, economic and social impacts arising from the production of aviation biofuels in Brazil. Despite the great potential of these fuels, there is a significant need for improved routes of production and specifically for lower production costs of these materials. In addition, the productive chains of raw materials for obtaining these bioenergetics can be linked to environmental impacts by NOx emissions, extensive use of agricultural land, loss of wildlife and intensive water use, as well as economic, social and political impacts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

Economic evaluation in chronic pain: a systematic review and de novo flexible economic model.

PubMed

Sullivan, W; Hirst, M; Beard, S; Gladwell, D; Fagnani, F; López Bastida, J; Phillips, C; Dunlop, W C N

2016-07-01

There is unmet need in patients suffering from chronic pain, yet innovation may be impeded by the difficulty of justifying economic value in a field beset by data limitations and methodological variability. A systematic review was conducted to identify and summarise the key areas of variability and limitations in modelling approaches in the economic evaluation of treatments for chronic pain. The results of the literature review were then used to support the development of a fully flexible open-source economic model structure, designed to test structural and data assumptions and act as a reference for future modelling practice. The key model design themes identified from the systematic review included: time horizon; titration and stabilisation; number of treatment lines; choice/ordering of treatment; and the impact of parameter uncertainty (given reliance on expert opinion). Exploratory analyses using the model to compare a hypothetical novel therapy versus morphine as first-line treatments showed cost-effectiveness results to be sensitive to structural and data assumptions. Assumptions about the treatment pathway and choice of time horizon were key model drivers. Our results suggest structural model design and data assumptions may have driven previous cost-effectiveness results and ultimately decisions based on economic value. We therefore conclude that it is vital that future economic models in chronic pain are designed to be fully transparent and hope our open-source code is useful in order to aspire to a common approach to modelling pain that includes robust sensitivity analyses to test structural and parameter uncertainty.

Models for the Economics of Resilience

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Stanley; Ayyub, Bilal M.

2016-01-01

Estimating the economic burden of disasters requires appropriate models that account for key characteristics and decision making needs. Natural disasters in 2011 resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Average annual losses in the US amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to significant savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics with models for examining the economics of resilience. This paper provides such microeconomic models, compares them, examines their sensitivities to key parameters, and illustrates their uses. Such models enable improving the resiliency of systems to meet target levels. PMID:28133626

Models for the Economics of Resilience.

PubMed

Gilbert, Stanley; Ayyub, Bilal M

2016-12-01

Estimating the economic burden of disasters requires appropriate models that account for key characteristics and decision making needs. Natural disasters in 2011 resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Average annual losses in the US amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to significant savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics with models for examining the economics of resilience. This paper provides such microeconomic models, compares them, examines their sensitivities to key parameters, and illustrates their uses. Such models enable improving the resiliency of systems to meet target levels.

Project Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice. A Third-grade Economics Project [and] A Bird's Eye View of an Economic Stew: A Study of Poultry and Rice Production in Arkansas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Penny

An economics project for third grade children is described and lessons for teaching basic economic concepts are provided. In the first semester, students studied basic economic concepts; in the second semester, they learned about the origin, production, and distribution of rice and poultry and how these products affect the local and state…

Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

PubMed

Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

2018-01-01

Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as

Economic productivity by age and sex: 2007 estimates for the United States.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Krueger, Kurt V; Mvundura, Mercy

2009-07-01

Human capital estimates of labor productivity are often used to estimate the economic impact of diseases and injuries that cause incapacitation or death. Estimates of average hourly, annual, and lifetime economic productivity, both market and household, were calculated in 2007 US dollars for 5-year age groups for men, women, and both sexes in the United States. Data from the American Time Use Survey were used to estimate hours of paid work and household services and hourly and annual earnings and household productivity. Present values of discounted lifetime earnings were calculated for each age group using the 2004 US life tables and a discount rate of 3% per year and assuming future productivity growth of 1% per year. The estimates of hours and productivity were calculated using the time diaries of 72,922 persons included in the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003 to 2007. The present value of lifetime productivity is approximately $1.2 million in 2007 dollars for children under 5 years of age. For adults in their 20s and 30s, it is approximately $1.6 million and then it declines with increasing age. Productivity estimates are higher for males than for females, more for market productivity than for total productivity. Changes in hours of paid employment and household services can affect economic productivity by age and sex. This is the first publication to include estimates of household services based on contemporary time use data for the US population.

Energy-economic policy modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanstad, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

Global economic burden of Chagas disease: a computational simulation model.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Bacon, Kristina M; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J

2013-04-01

As Chagas disease continues to expand beyond tropical and subtropical zones, a growing need exists to better understand its resulting economic burden to help guide stakeholders such as policy makers, funders, and product developers. We developed a Markov simulation model to estimate the global and regional health and economic burden of Chagas disease from the societal perspective. Our Markov model structure had a 1 year cycle length and consisted of five states: acute disease, indeterminate disease, cardiomyopathy with or without congestive heart failure, megaviscera, and death. Major model parameter inputs, including the annual probabilities of transitioning from one state to another, and present case estimates for Chagas disease came from various sources, including WHO and other epidemiological and disease-surveillance-based reports. We calculated annual and lifetime health-care costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for individuals, countries, and regions. We used a discount rate of 3% to adjust all costs and DALYs to present-day values. On average, an infected individual incurs US$474 in health-care costs and 0·51 DALYs annually. Over his or her lifetime, an infected individual accrues an average net present value of $3456 and 3·57 DALYs. Globally, the annual burden is $627·46 million in health-care costs and 806,170 DALYs. The global net present value of currently infected individuals is $24·73 billion in health-care costs and 29,385,250 DALYs. Conversion of this burden into costs results in annual per-person costs of $4660 and lifetime per-person costs of $27,684. Global costs are $7·19 billion per year and $188·80 billion per lifetime. More than 10% of these costs emanate from the USA and Canada, where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic. A substantial proportion of the burden emerges from lost productivity from cardiovascular disease-induced early mortality. The economic burden of Chagas disease is similar to or exceeds those

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2015-01-01

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Understanding and modeling the economics of ECM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, Wayne E.; Edinbarough, Immanuel A.

2004-12-01

Traditional economic analysis methods for manufacturing decisions include only the clearly identified immediate cost and revenue streams. Environmental issues have generally been seen as costs, in the form of waste material losses, conformance tests and pre-discharge treatments. The components of the waste stream often purchased as raw materials, become liabilities at the "end of the pipe" and their intrinsic material value is seldom recognized. A new mathematical treatment of manufacturing economics is proposed in which the costs of separation are compared with the intrinsic value of the waste materials to show how their recovery can provide an economic advantage to the manufacturer. The model is based on a unique combination of thermodynamic analysis, economic modeling and linear optimization. This paper describes the proposed model, and examines case studies in which the changed decision rules have yielded significant savings while protecting the environment. The premise proposed is that by including the value of the waste materials in the profit objective of the firm and applying the appropriate technological solution, manufacturing processes can become closed systems in which losses approach zero and environmental problems are converted into economic savings.

A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Norashikin; Muda, Nora; Umor, Mohd Rozi

2014-06-01

Malaysia is a country which is rich in natural resources and one of it is a gold. Gold has already become an important national commodity. This study is conducted to determine a model that can be well fitted with the gold production in Malaysia from the year 1995-2010. Five nonlinear models are presented in this study which are Logistic model, Gompertz, Richard, Weibull and Chapman-Richard model. These model are used to fit the cumulative gold production in Malaysia. The best model is then selected based on the model performance. The performance of the fitted model is measured by sum squares error, root mean squares error, coefficient of determination, mean relative error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. This study has found that a Weibull model is shown to have significantly outperform compare to the other models. To confirm that Weibull is the best model, the latest data are fitted to the model. Once again, Weibull model gives the lowest readings at all types of measurement error. We can concluded that the future gold production in Malaysia can be predicted according to the Weibull model and this could be important findings for Malaysia to plan their economic activities.

A techno-economic model for optimum regeneration of surface mined land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, Manas K.; Sinha, Indra N.

2006-07-01

The recent global scenario in the mineral sector may be characterized by rising competitiveness, increasing production costs and a slump in market price. This has pushed the mineral sector in general and that in the developing countries in particular to a situation where the industry has a limited capacity to sustain unproductive costs. This, more often than not, results in a situation where the industry fails to ensure environmental safeguards during and after mineral extraction. The situation is conspicuous in the Indian coal mining industry where more than 73% production comes from surface operations. India has an ambitious power augmentation projection for the coming 10 years. A phenomenal increase in coal production is proposed from the power grade coalfields in India. One of the most likely fall-outs of land degradation due to mining in these areas would be significant reduction of agricultural and other important land-uses. Currently, backfilling costs are perceived as prohibitive and abandonment of land is the easy way out. This study attempts to provide mine planners with a mathematical model that distributes generated overburden at defined disposal options while ensuring maximization of backfilled land area at minimum direct and economic costs. Optimization has been accomplished by linear programming (LP) for optimum distribution of each year’s generated overburden. Previous year’s disposal quantity outputs are processed as one set of the inputs to the LP model for generation of current year’s disposal output. From various geo-mining inputs, site constants of the LP constraints are calculated. Arrived value of economic vectors, which guide the programming statement, decides the optimal overburden distribution in defined options. The case example (with model test run) indicates that overburden distribution is significantly sensitive to coal seam gradient. The model has universal applicability to cyclic system (shovel dumper combination) of opencast

An analysis of prosthodontic research productivity: geographic, economic, and collaborative perspective.

PubMed

Thornton, Kathryn; Lee, Damian J; Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Knoernschild, Kent L; Campbell, Stephen D; Sukotjo, Cortino

2012-01-01

This study evaluated the quantity of prosthodontic literature produced globally by continent in three prosthodontic journals over a 10-year period, 1998-2008. Prosthodontic research productivity relative to economic status of countries and collaboration among countries grouped by economic status was assessed. Three peer-reviewed prosthodontic journals were used for the analysis of articles published in 1998, 2003, and 2008: The Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry, International Journal of Prosthodontics, and Journal of Prosthodontics. The country of every author listed for each included article was recorded. The number of articles published by each continent and each country was reported. Countries were grouped according to the World Bank economic classification system, and the number of articles published by each economic class was found. The majority of publications over the 10-year period were produced in Asia (Japan), Europe (Germany), and North America (USA). Productivity declined by 14.4% in high-income countries while it increased in upper middle-, lower middle-, and low-income countries. The majority of publications written by upper and lower middle- and low-income countries were independent works. Articles resulting from collaboration increased over time for all economic classes of countries. The origins of prosthodontic literature are becoming more geographically and economically diverse, with increased contributions from Africa, Asia, and South America, and middle- and low-income countries between 1998 and 2008. Collaboration between high-income countries and the other economic group countries increased over time. © 2011 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Modeling Joint Climate and Bioenergy Policies: Challenges of integrating economic and environmental data. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellwinckel, C. M.; West, T. O.; de La Torre Ugarte, D.; Perlack, R.

2010-12-01

In the coming decades agriculture will be asked to play a significant role in reducing carbon emissions and reducing our use of foreign oil. The Renewable Fuels Standard combined with possible climate legislation will alter the economic landscape effecting agricultural land use decisions. The joint implementation of these two policies could potentially work against one another. We have integrated biogeophysical data into the POLYSYS economic model to analyze the effects of climate change and bioenergy legislation upon regional land-use change, soil carbon, carbon emissions, biofuel production, and agricultural income. The purpose of the analysis was to use the integrated model to identify carbon and bioenergy policies that could act synergistically to meet Renewable Fuel Standard goals, reduce net emissions of carbon, and increase agricultural incomes. The heterogeneous nature of soils, crop yields, and management practices presented challenges to the modeling process. Regional variation in physical data can significantly affect economic land use decisions and patterns. For this reason, we disaggregated the economic component of the model to the county level, with sub-county soils and land-use data informing the county level decisions. Modeling carbon offset dynamics presented unique challenges, as the physical responses of local soils impact the economic incentives offered, and conversely, the resulting land-use changes impact characteristics of local soils. Additionally, using data from different resolution levels led to questions of appropriate scale of analysis. This presentation will describe the integrated model, present some significant results from our analysis, and discuss appropriate steps forward given what we learned.

Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

PubMed

Bramati, Maria Caterina

2016-11-15

Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic techno-economic analysis of alcohol-to-jet fuel production.

PubMed

Yao, Guolin; Staples, Mark D; Malina, Robert; Tyner, Wallace E

2017-01-01

Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) is one of the technical feasible biofuel technologies. It produces jet fuel from sugary, starchy, and lignocellulosic biomass, such as sugarcane, corn grain, and switchgrass, via fermentation of sugars to ethanol or other alcohols. This study assesses the ATJ biofuel production pathway for these three biomass feedstocks, and advances existing techno-economic analyses of biofuels in three ways. First, we incorporate technical uncertainty for all by-products and co-products though statistical linkages between conversion efficiencies and input and output levels. Second, future price uncertainty is based on case-by-case time-series estimation, and a local sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to each uncertain variable. Third, breakeven price distributions are developed to communicate the inherent uncertainty in breakeven price. This research also considers uncertainties in utility input requirements, fuel and by-product outputs, as well as price uncertainties for all major inputs, products, and co-products. All analyses are done from the perspective of a private firm. The stochastic dominance results of net present values (NPV) and breakeven price distributions show that sugarcane is the lowest cost feedstock over the entire range of uncertainty with the least risks, followed by corn grain and switchgrass, with the mean breakeven jet fuel prices being $0.96/L ($3.65/gal), $1.01/L ($3.84/gal), and $1.38/L ($5.21/gal), respectively. The variation of revenues from by-products in corn grain pathway can significantly impact its profitability. Sensitivity analyses show that technical uncertainty significantly impacts breakeven price and NPV distributions. Technical uncertainty is critical in determining the economic performance of the ATJ fuel pathway. Technical uncertainty needs to be considered in future economic analyses. The variation of revenues from by-products plays a significant role in profitability. With the distribution of breakeven

50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL... EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE OFF ALASKA Pt. 680, Table 3c Table 3c to Part 680—Crab Product Codes for Economic...

50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 13 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL... EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE OFF ALASKA Pt. 680, Table 3c Table 3c to Part 680—Crab Product Codes for Economic...

50 CFR Table 3c to Part 680 - Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 11 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Crab Product Codes for Economic Data Reports 3c Table 3c to Part 680 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL... EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE OFF ALASKA Pt. 680, Table 3c Table 3c to Part 680—Crab Product Codes for Economic...

Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

2013-04-01

The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

JEDI Methodology | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Methodology JEDI Methodology The intent of the Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models costs) to demonstrate the employment and economic impacts that will likely result during the estimate of overall economic impacts from specific scenarios. Please see Limitations of JEDI Models for

Increased wood-fiber production: technology, economics, and ecology

Treesearch

William R. Bentley

1973-01-01

Forest tree improvement is a form of technological change, and it should be viewed as such. The economic objective of technological change is to increase productivity per dollar invested. This is accomplished through selection and breeding for increased growth rates or reduced losses to insects and disease. Programs which yield improved planting stock make forest...

Impact of pretreatment and downstream processing technologies on economics and energy in cellulosic ethanol production.

PubMed

Kumar, Deepak; Murthy, Ganti S

2011-09-05

While advantages of biofuel have been widely reported, studies also highlight the challenges in large scale production of biofuel. Cost of ethanol and process energy use in cellulosic ethanol plants are dependent on technologies used for conversion of feedstock. Process modeling can aid in identifying techno-economic bottlenecks in a production process. A comprehensive techno-economic analysis was performed for conversion of cellulosic feedstock to ethanol using some of the common pretreatment technologies: dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion. Detailed process models incorporating feedstock handling, pretreatment, simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation, ethanol recovery and downstream processing were developed using SuperPro Designer. Tall Fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb) was used as a model feedstock. Projected ethanol yields were 252.62, 255.80, 255.27 and 230.23 L/dry metric ton biomass for conversion process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment technologies respectively. Price of feedstock and cellulose enzymes were assumed as $50/metric ton and 0.517/kg broth (10% protein in broth, 600 FPU/g protein) respectively. Capital cost of ethanol plants processing 250,000 metric tons of feedstock/year was $1.92, $1.73, $1.72 and $1.70/L ethanol for process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment respectively. Ethanol production cost of $0.83, $0.88, $0.81 and $0.85/L ethanol was estimated for production process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment respectively. Water use in the production process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment was estimated 5.96, 6.07, 5.84 and 4.36 kg/L ethanol respectively. Ethanol price and energy use were highly dependent on process conditions used in the ethanol production plant. Potential for significant ethanol cost reductions exist in increasing

Impact of pretreatment and downstream processing technologies on economics and energy in cellulosic ethanol production

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background While advantages of biofuel have been widely reported, studies also highlight the challenges in large scale production of biofuel. Cost of ethanol and process energy use in cellulosic ethanol plants are dependent on technologies used for conversion of feedstock. Process modeling can aid in identifying techno-economic bottlenecks in a production process. A comprehensive techno-economic analysis was performed for conversion of cellulosic feedstock to ethanol using some of the common pretreatment technologies: dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion. Detailed process models incorporating feedstock handling, pretreatment, simultaneous saccharification and co-fermentation, ethanol recovery and downstream processing were developed using SuperPro Designer. Tall Fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb) was used as a model feedstock. Results Projected ethanol yields were 252.62, 255.80, 255.27 and 230.23 L/dry metric ton biomass for conversion process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment technologies respectively. Price of feedstock and cellulose enzymes were assumed as $50/metric ton and 0.517/kg broth (10% protein in broth, 600 FPU/g protein) respectively. Capital cost of ethanol plants processing 250,000 metric tons of feedstock/year was $1.92, $1.73, $1.72 and $1.70/L ethanol for process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment respectively. Ethanol production cost of $0.83, $0.88, $0.81 and $0.85/L ethanol was estimated for production process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment respectively. Water use in the production process using dilute acid, dilute alkali, hot water and steam explosion pretreatment was estimated 5.96, 6.07, 5.84 and 4.36 kg/L ethanol respectively. Conclusions Ethanol price and energy use were highly dependent on process conditions used in the ethanol production plant. Potential for significant ethanol cost

Evaluation of the mathematical and economic basis for conversion processes in the LEAP energy-economy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oblow, E. M.

1982-10-01

An evaluation was made of the mathematical and economic basis for conversion processes in the Long-term Energy Analysis Program (LEAP) energy economy model. Conversion processes are the main modeling subunit in LEAP used to represent energy conversion industries and are supposedly based on the classical economic theory of the firm. Questions about uniqueness and existence of LEAP solutions and their relation to classical equilibrium economic theory prompted the study. An analysis of classical theory and LEAP model equations was made to determine their exact relationship. The conclusions drawn from this analysis were that LEAP theory is not consistent with the classical theory of the firm. Specifically, the capacity factor formalism used by LEAP does not support a classical interpretation in terms of a technological production function for energy conversion processes. The economic implications of this inconsistency are suboptimal process operation and short term negative profits in years where plant operation should be terminated. A new capacity factor formalism, which retains the behavioral features of the original model, is proposed to resolve these discrepancies.

Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

2017-12-01

The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

The global historical and future economic loss and cost of earthquakes during the production of adaptive worldwide economic fragility functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

2014-05-01

macroseismic intensity, capital stock estimate, GDP estimate, year and the combined seismic building index (a created combination of the global seismic code index, building practice factor, building age and infrastructure vulnerability). The analysis provided three key results: a) The production of economic fragility functions from the 1900-2008 events showed very good correlation to the economic loss and cost from earthquakes from 2009-2013, in real-time. This methodology has been extended to other natural disaster types (typhoon, flood, drought). b) The reanalysis of historical earthquake events in order to check associated historical loss and costs versus the expected exposure in terms of intensities. The 1939 Chillan, 1948 Turkmenistan, 1950 Iran, 1972 Managua, 1980 Western Nepal and 1992 Erzincan earthquake events were seen as huge outliers compared with the modelled capital stock and GDP and thus additional studies were undertaken to check the original loss results. c) A worldwide GIS layer database of capital stock (gross and net), GDP, infrastructure age and economic indices over the period 1900-2013 have been created in conjunction with the CATDAT database in order to define correct economic loss and costs.

Economic impact of GM crops: the global income and production effects 1996-2012.

PubMed

Brookes, Graham; Barfoot, Peter

2014-01-01

A key part of any assessment of the global value of crop biotechnology in agriculture is an examination of its economic impact at the farm level. This paper follows earlier annual studies which examined economic impacts on yields, key costs of production, direct farm income and effects, and impacts on the production base of the four main crops of soybeans, corn, cotton and canola. The commercialization of genetically modified (GM) crops has continued to occur at a rapid rate, with important changes in both the overall level of adoption and impact occurring in 2012. This annual updated analysis shows that there have been very significant net economic benefits at the farm level amounting to $18.8 billion in 2012 and $116.6 billion for the 17-year period (in nominal terms). These economic gains have been divided roughly 50% each to farmers in developed and developing countries. GM technology have also made important contributions to increasing global production levels of the four main crops, having added 122 million tonnes and 230 million tonnes respectively, to the global production of soybeans and maize since the introduction of the technology in the mid-1990s.

Price elasticity of tobacco products among economic classes in India, 2011–2012

PubMed Central

Selvaraj, Sakthivel; Srivastava, Swati; Karan, Anup

2015-01-01

Objectives The objectives of this study are to: (1) examine the pattern of price elasticity of three major tobacco products (bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco) by economic groups of population based on household monthly per capita consumption expenditure in India and (2) assess the effect of tax increases on tobacco consumption and revenue across expenditure groups. Setting Data from the 2011–2012 nationally representative Consumer Expenditure Survey from 101 662 Indian households were used. Participants Households which consumed any tobacco or alcohol product were retained in final models. Primary outcome measures The study draws theoretical frameworks from a model using the augmented utility function of consumer behaviour, with a two-stage two-equation system of unit values and budget shares. Primary outcome measures were price elasticity of demand for different tobacco products for three hierarchical economic groups of population and change in tax revenue due to changes in tax structure. We finally estimated price elasticity of demand for bidi, cigarette and leaf tobacco and effects of changes in their tax rates on demand for these tobacco products and tax revenue. Results Own price elasticities for bidi were highest in the poorest group (−0.4328) and lowest in the richest group (−0.0815). Cigarette own price elasticities were −0.832 in the poorest group and −0.2645 in the richest group. Leaf tobacco elasticities were highest in the poorest (−0.557) and middle (−0.4537) groups. Conclusions Poorer group elasticities were the highest, indicating that poorer consumers are more price responsive. Elasticity estimates show positive distributional effects of uniform bidi and cigarette taxation on the poorest consumers, as their consumption is affected the most due to increases in taxation. Leaf tobacco also displayed moderate elasticities in poor and middle tertiles, suggesting that tax increases may result in a trade-off between consumption decline and

Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

Incorporating agricultural management into an earth system model for the Pacific Northwest region: Interactions between climate, hydrology, agriculture, and economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Stockle, C.; Nelson, R.; Brady, M.; Rajagopalan, K.; Barber, M. E.; Dinesh, S.; Malek, K.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.; Marsh, T.; Yoder, J.

2011-12-01

For better management and decision making in the face of climate change, earth system models must explicitly account for natural resource and agricultural management activities. Including crop system, water management, and economic models into an earth system modeling framework can help in answering questions related to the impacts of climate change on irrigation water and crop productivity, how agricultural producers can adapt to anticipated climate change, and how agricultural practices can mitigate climate change. Herein we describe the coupling of the Variability Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, which solves the water and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle at regional scales, with a crop-growth model, CropSyst. This new model, VIC-CropSyst, is the land surface model that will be used in a new regional-scale model development project focused on the Pacific Northwest, termed BioEarth. Here we describe the VIC-CropSyst coupling process and its application over the Columbia River basin (CRB) using agricultural-specific land cover information. The Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA) and U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cropland data layers were used to identify agricultural land use patterns, in which both irrigated and dry land crops were simulated. The VIC-CropSyst model was applied over the CRB for the historical period of 1976 - 2006 to establish a baseline for surface water availability, irrigation demand, and crop production. The model was then applied under future (2030s) climate change scenarios derived from statistically-downscaled Global Circulation Models output under two emission scenarios (A1B and B1). Differences between simulated future and historical irrigation demand, irrigation water availability, and crop production were used in an economics model to identify the most economically-viable future cropping pattern. The economics model was run under varying scenarios of regional growth, trade, water pricing, and

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

Pretreatment solution recycling and high-concentration output for economical production of bioethanol.

PubMed

Han, Minhee; Moon, Se-Kwon; Choi, Gi-Wook

2014-11-01

The purpose of this study was to enhance the economic efficiency of producing bioethanol. Pretreatment solution recycling is expected to increase economic efficiency by reducing the cost of pretreatment and the amount of wastewater. In addition, the production of high-concentration bioethanol could increase economic efficiency by reducing the energy cost of distillation. The pretreatment conditions were 95 °C, 0.72 M NaOH, 80 rpm twin-screw speed, and flow rate of 90 mL/min at 18 g/min of raw biomass feeding for pretreatment solution recycling. The pretreatment with NaOH solution recycling was conducted five times. All of the components and the pretreatment efficiency were similar, despite reuse. In addition, we developed a continuous biomass feeding system for production of high-concentration bioethanol. Using this reactor, the bioethanol productivity was investigated using various pretreated biomass feeding rates in a simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) process. The maximum ethanol concentration, yield, and productivity were 74.5 g/L, 89.5%, and 1.4 g/L h, respectively, at a pretreated biomass loading of approximately 25% (w/v) with an enzyme dosage of 30 FPU g/cellulose. The results presented here constitute an important contribution toward the production of bioethanol from Miscanthus.

Effects of matrix shrinkage and swelling on the economics of enhanced-coalbed-methane production and CO{sub 2} sequestration in coal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gorucu, F.B.; Jikich, S.A.; Bromhal, G.S.

2007-08-15

In this work, the Palmer-Mansoori model for coal shrinkage and permeability increases during primary methane production was rewritten to also account for coal swelling caused by CO{sub 2} sorption. The generalized model was added to a compositional, dual porosity coalbed-methane reservoir simulator for primary (CBM) and ECBM production. A standard five-spot of vertical wells and representative coal properties for Appalachian coals was used. Simulations and sensitivity analyses were performed with the modified simulator for nine different parameters, including coal seam and operational parameters and economic criteria. The coal properties and operating parameters that were varied included Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio,more » cleat porosity, and injection pressure. The economic variables included CH{sub 4}, price, Col Cost, CO{sub 2} credit, water disposal cost, and interest rate. Net-present value (NPV) analyses of the simulation results included profits resulting from CH{sub 4}, production and potential incentives for sequestered CO{sub 2}, This work shows that for some coal seams, the combination of compressibility, cleat porosity, and shrinkage/swelling of the coal may have a significant impact on project economics.« less

Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes—An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs

PubMed Central

Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M.; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

2018-01-01

Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as

Estimating productivity costs in health economic evaluations: a review of instruments and psychometric evidence.

PubMed

Tang, Kenneth

2015-01-01

Health economic evaluations (i.e. cost-effectiveness appraisal of an intervention) are useful aids for decision makers responsible for the allocation of scarce healthcare resources. The relevance of including health-related productivity costs (or benefits) in these evaluations is increasingly recognized and, as such, reliable and valid instruments to quantify productivity costs are needed. Over the years, a number of work productivity instruments have emerged in the literature, along with a growing body of psychometric evidence. The overall aim of this paper is to provide a review of available instruments with potential for estimating health-related productivity costs. This included the Health and Labor Questionnaire, Health and Work Performance Questionnaire, Health-Related Productivity Questionnaire Diary, Productivity and Disease Questionnaire, Quantity and Quality method, Stanford Presenteeism Scale 13, Valuation of Lost Productivity, Work and Health Interview, Work Limitations Questionnaire, Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire, and Work Productivity Short Inventory. Critical discussions on the instruments' overall strengths and limitations, applicability for health economic evaluations, as well as the methodological quality of existing psychometric evidence were provided. Lastly, a set of reflective questions were proposed for users to consider when selecting an instrument for health economic evaluations.

The economic efficiency of conservation measures for amphibians in organic farming--results from bio-economic modelling.

PubMed

Schuler, Johannes; Sattler, Claudia; Helmecke, Angela; Zander, Peter; Uthes, Sandra; Bachinger, Johann; Stein-Bachinger, Karin

2013-01-15

This paper presents a whole farm bio-economic modelling approach for the assessment and optimisation of amphibian conservation conditions applied at the example of a large scale organic farm in North-Eastern Germany. The assessment focuses mainly on the habitat quality as affected by conservation measures such as through specific adapted crop production activities (CPA) and in-field buffer strips for the European tree frog (Hyla arborea), considering also interrelations with other amphibian species (i.e. common spadefoot toad (Pelobates fuscus), fire-bellied toad (Bombina bombina)). The aim of the approach is to understand, analyse and optimize the relationships between the ecological and economic performance of an organic farming system, based on the expectation that amphibians are differently impacted by different CPAs. The modelling system consists of a set of different sub-models that generate a farm model on the basis of environmentally evaluated CPAs. A crop-rotation sub-model provides a set of agronomically sustainable crop rotations that ensures overall sufficient nitrogen supply and controls weed, pest and disease infestations. An economic sub-model calculates the gross margins for each possible CPA including costs of inputs such as labour and machinery. The conservation effects of the CPAs are assessed with an ecological sub-model evaluates the potential negative or positive effect that each work step of a CPA has on amphibians. A mathematical programming sub-model calculates the optimal farm organization taking into account the limited factors of the farm (e.g. labour, land) as well as ecological improvements. In sequential model runs, the habitat quality is to be improved by the model, while the highest possible gross margin is still to be achieved. The results indicate that the model can be used to show the scope of action that a farmer has to improve habitat quality by reducing damage to amphibian population on its land during agricultural activities

Modeling recent economic debates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skiadas, Christos H.

The previous years' disaster in the stock markets all over the world and the resulting economic crisis lead to serious criticisms of the various models used. It was evident that large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur even in the case of a well organized and supervised context as it looks to be the European Union. In order to explain the economic systems, we explore models of interacting and conflicting populations. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market or a Group of Countries as the EU). Three models where introduced 1) the Lotka-Volterra 2) the Lanchester or the Richardson model and 3) a new model for two conflicting populations. These models assume immediate interaction between the two conflicting populations. This is usually not the case in a stock market or between countries as delays in the information process arise. The main rules present include mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. In a previous paper (Skiadas, 2010 [9]) we had proposed and analyzed a model including mutual interaction with delays due to the innovation diffusion process. The model characteristics where expressed by third order terms providing four characteristic symmetric stationary points. In this paper we summarize the previous results and we analyze the case of a non-symmetric case where the leading part receives the information immediately while the second part receives the information following a delay mechanism due to the innovation diffusion process (the spread of information) which can be expressed by a third order term. In the later case the non-symmetric process leads to gains of the leading part while the second part oscillates between gains and losses during time.

Investigating impacts of economic growth on the environment using remote sensing tools: A case study of gross domestic product and net primary production in China from 2001 to 2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Naizhuo

Pursuing sustainable co-development of economy and environment has been established as a basic national policy by the present Chinese government. However, studies regarding actual outcomes of the co-development policy at the whole Chinese scale are still limited. Detecting China's economic growth and changes of environmental quality will not only contribute to evaluation of outcomes of the co-development policy but more importantly is an opportunity to examine the suitability of the IPAT model and improve our understanding of human-environment interactions. The core of the IPAT theory is an equation where I=PxAxT that models human impact on the environment as a function of changes to population (P), affluence ( A), and technology (T). The IPAT theory emphasizes that economic growth will inevitably produce negative impacts on the environment. Thus, if China's environmental quality declined while economic growth occurred, then the IPAT theory will be substantiated. Otherwise, the suitability of the IPAT theory will be called into question and its tenets must be reconsidered. In this dissertation research I selected gross domestic product (GDP) and net primary production (NPP) as indicators to evaluate production of social and ecological systems respectively. The main study objectives are (1) to develop a methodology to facilitate integration of the two indicators derived from demographic data sources and satellite imagery at different geographic scales, (2) to jointly explore changing patterns of China's economic and ecological production (i.e., spatially and temporally coincident patterns of change in GDP and NPP) across different spatial scales, (3) to analyze whether economic growth has produced negative impacts on ecosystem production and whether the impacts correlate to the economic growth, and finally (4) to discuss whether the IPAT theory is suitable for explaining the joint changes of GDP and NPP in China or if it is in need of modification. To fulfill the

Modeling the Economic Impacts of Large Deployments on Local Communities

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-12-01

MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LARGE DEPLOYMENTS ON LOCAL COMMUNITIES THESIS Aaron L... MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LARGE DEPLOYMENTS ON LOCAL COMMUNITIES THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Systems Engineering and...APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED AFIT/GCA/ENV/08-D01 MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF LARGE DEPLOYMENTS ON LOCAL

Fish Processed Production Planning Using Integer Stochastic Programming Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firmansyah, Mawengkang, Herman

2011-06-01

Fish and its processed products are the most affordable source of animal protein in the diet of most people in Indonesia. The goal in production planning is to meet customer demand over a fixed time horizon divided into planning periods by optimizing the trade-off between economic objectives such as production cost and customer satisfaction level. The major decisions are production and inventory levels for each product and the number of workforce in each planning period. In this paper we consider the management of small scale traditional business at North Sumatera Province which performs processing fish into several local seafood products. The inherent uncertainty of data (e.g. demand, fish availability), together with the sequential evolution of data over time leads the production planning problem to a nonlinear mixed-integer stochastic programming model. We use scenario generation based approach and feasible neighborhood search for solving the model. The results which show the amount of each fish processed product and the number of workforce needed in each horizon planning are presented.

The Importance of Considering the Temporal Distribution of Climate Variables for Ecological-Economic Modeling to Calculate the Consequences of Climate Change for Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plegnière, Sabrina; Casper, Markus; Hecker, Benjamin; Müller-Fürstenberger, Georg

2014-05-01

The basis of many models to calculate and assess climate change and its consequences are annual means of temperature and precipitation. This method leads to many uncertainties especially at the regional or local level: the results are not realistic or too coarse. Particularly in agriculture, single events and the distribution of precipitation and temperature during the growing season have enormous influences on plant growth. Therefore, the temporal distribution of climate variables should not be ignored. To reach this goal, a high-resolution ecological-economic model was developed which combines a complex plant growth model (STICS) and an economic model. In this context, input data of the plant growth model are daily climate values for a specific climate station calculated by the statistical climate model (WETTREG). The economic model is deduced from the results of the plant growth model STICS. The chosen plant is corn because corn is often cultivated and used in many different ways. First of all, a sensitivity analysis showed that the plant growth model STICS is suitable to calculate the influences of different cultivation methods and climate on plant growth or yield as well as on soil fertility, e.g. by nitrate leaching, in a realistic way. Additional simulations helped to assess a production function that is the key element of the economic model. Thereby the problems when using mean values of temperature and precipitation in order to compute a production function by linear regression are pointed out. Several examples show why a linear regression to assess a production function based on mean climate values or smoothed natural distribution leads to imperfect results and why it is not possible to deduce a unique climate factor in the production function. One solution for this problem is the additional consideration of stress indices that show the impairment of plants by water or nitrate shortage. Thus, the resulting model takes into account not only the ecological

Multi-scale exploration of the technical, economic, and environmental dimensions of bio-based chemical production.

PubMed

Zhuang, Kai H; Herrgård, Markus J

2015-09-01

In recent years, bio-based chemicals have gained traction as a sustainable alternative to petrochemicals. However, despite rapid advances in metabolic engineering and synthetic biology, there remain significant economic and environmental challenges. In order to maximize the impact of research investment in a new bio-based chemical industry, there is a need for assessing the technological, economic, and environmental potentials of combinations of biomass feedstocks, biochemical products, bioprocess technologies, and metabolic engineering approaches in the early phase of development of cell factories. To address this issue, we have developed a comprehensive Multi-scale framework for modeling Sustainable Industrial Chemicals production (MuSIC), which integrates modeling approaches for cellular metabolism, bioreactor design, upstream/downstream processes and economic impact assessment. We demonstrate the use of the MuSIC framework in a case study where two major polymer precursors (1,3-propanediol and 3-hydroxypropionic acid) are produced from two biomass feedstocks (corn-based glucose and soy-based glycerol) through 66 proposed biosynthetic pathways in two host organisms (Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae). The MuSIC framework allows exploration of tradeoffs and interactions between economy-scale objectives (e.g. profit maximization, emission minimization), constraints (e.g. land-use constraints) and process- and cell-scale technology choices (e.g. strain design or oxygenation conditions). We demonstrate that economy-scale assessment can be used to guide specific strain design decisions in metabolic engineering, and that these design decisions can be affected by non-intuitive dependencies across multiple scales. Copyright © 2015 International Metabolic Engineering Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Historical Role of the Production Function in Economics and Business

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gordon, David; Vaughan, Richard

2011-01-01

The production function explains a basic technological relationship between scarce resources, or inputs, and output. This paper offers a brief overview of the historical significance and operational role of the production function in business and economics. The origin and development of this function over time is initially explored. Several…

Environmental and economic assessment of a road safety product made with virgin and recycled HDPE: a comparative study.

PubMed

L Simões, Carla; Costa Pinto, Lígia M; Bernardo, C A

2013-01-15

The development of value-added products made from post-consumer plastic recyclates has become an important goal in the quest for a sustainable society. To attain such goal, tools with higher accuracy and wider scope are increasingly necessary. The present work describes the application of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)/Life Cycle Costing (LCC) integrated model, with inclusion of externalities (environmental and social costs), to Anti-Glare Lamellae (AGL) made with High Density Polyethylene (HDPE). It compares an AGL currently manufactured from virgin HDPE (current AGL) with an alternative one made with recycled HDPE (optional AGL). The results obtained show that neither the current nor the optional AGL depict the best environmental performance in all impact categories. Nevertheless, there is a clear overall environmental and economic advantage in replacing virgin HDPE with recycled HDPE. The present work also makes evident that the LCA/LCC integrated model allows the identification of economic and environmental win-win and trade-off situations related to the full life cycle of products. As such, its results can be used as valuable guidelines in product development. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental-Economic Assessment Of Generation, Flow And Efficiency Of Use Of Production And Consumption Waste

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhailov, V. G.; Golofastova, N. N.; Galanina, T. V.; Koroleva, T. G.; Mikhailova, Ya S.

2017-01-01

The article deals with the issues of environmental and economic analysis of industrial and economic activities of an enterprise to assess the generation, flow and efficiency of production and consumption waste. The purpose of research is the analysis and the development of theoretical propositions for the functioning of the system of environmental and economic indicators for the effective management of production and consumption waste in the enterprise. The analysis of the existing systems of environmental and economic indicators taking into consideration the industry characteristics and the types of negative impacts is carried out. The main result of the study is the development of the system of environmental and economic indicators of production and consumption waste, adapted to the modern requirements. The results of the study can be recommended to support the effective management decision-making concerning waste management and the establishment of appropriate infrastructure.

Overview of processing activities aimed at higher efficiencies and economical production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickler, D. B.

1985-01-01

An overview of processing activities aimed at higher efficiencies and economical production were presented. Present focus is on low-cost process technology for higher-efficiency cells of up to 18% or higher. Process development concerns center on the use of less than optimum silicon sheet, the control of production yields, and making uniformly efficient large-area cells. High-efficiency cell factors that require process development are bulk material perfection, very shallow junction formation, front-surface passivation, and finely detailed metallization. Better bulk properties of the silicon sheet and the keeping of those qualities throughout large areas during cell processing are required so that minority carrier lifetimes are maintained and cell performance is not degraded by high doping levels. When very shallow junctions are formed, the process must be sensitive to metallizatin punch-through, series resisitance in the cell, and control of dopant leaching during surface passivation. There is a need to determine the sensitivity to processing by mathematical modeling and experimental activities.

Modelling of cayenne production in Central Java using ARIMA-GARCH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarno; Sudarno; Ispriyanti, Dwi; Suparti

2018-05-01

Some regencies/cities in Central Java Province are known as producers of horticultural crops in Indonesia, for example, Brebes which is the largest area of shallot producer in Central Java, while the others, such as Cilacap and Wonosobo are the areas of cayenne commodities production. Currently, cayenne is a strategic commodity and it has broad impact to Indonesian economic development. Modelling the cayenne production is necessary to predict about the commodity to meet the need for society. The needs fulfillment of society will affect stability of the concerned commodity price. Based on the reality, the decreasing of cayenne production will cause the increasing of society’s basic needs price, and finally it will affect the inflation level at that area. This research focused on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling by considering the effect of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) to study about cayenne production in Central Java. The result of empirical study of ARIMA-GARCH modelling for cayenne production in Central Java from January 2003 to November 2015 is ARIMA([1,3],0,0)-GARCH(1,0) as the best model.

The RTOG Outcomes Model: economic end points and measures.

PubMed

Konski, Andre; Watkins-Bruner, Deborah

2004-03-01

Recognising the value added by economic evaluations of clinical trials and the interaction of clinical, humanistic and economic end points, the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) has developed an Outcomes Model that guides the comprehensive assessment of this triad of end points. This paper will focus on the economic component of the model. The Economic Impact Committee was founded in 1994 to study the economic impact of clinical trials of cancer care. A steep learning curve ensued with considerable time initially spent understanding the methodology of economic analysis. Since then, economic analyses have been performed on RTOG clinical trials involving treatments for patients with non-small cell lung cancer, locally-advanced head and neck cancer and prostate cancer. As the care of cancer patients evolves with time, so has the economic analyses performed by the Economic Impact Committee. This paper documents the evolution of the cost-effectiveness analyses of RTOG from performing average cost-utility analysis to more technically sophisticated Monte Carlo simulation of Markov models, to incorporating prospective economic analyses as an initial end point. Briefly, results indicated that, accounting for quality-adjusted survival, concurrent chemotherapy and radiation for the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer, more aggressive radiation fractionation schedules for head and neck cancer and the addition of hormone therapy to radiation for prostate cancer are within the range of economically acceptable recommendations. The RTOG economic analyses have provided information that can further inform clinicians and policy makers of the value added of new or improved treatments.

Process economics of renewable biorefineries: butanol and ethanol production in integrated bioprocesses from lignocellulosics and other industrial by-products

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This chapter provides process economic details on production of butanol from lignocellulosic biomass and glycerol in integrated bioreactors where numerous unit operations are combined. In order to compare various processes, economic evaluations were performed using SuperPro Designer Software (versio...

Economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico: economic scenario 2010-2018.

PubMed

Posadas-Domínguez, R R; Callejas-Juárez, N; Arriaga-Jordán, C M; Martínez-Castañeda, F E

2016-12-01

A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of input and product prices taking 2010 as base year and considering four scenarios which were compared against the scenario of actual production. The other scenarios were (1) total hiring in of needed labour; (2) external purchase of 100 % of inputs and (3) withdrawal of subsidies to production. A stochastic modelling approach was followed to determine the scenario with the highest economic and financial viability. Results show a viable economic and financial situation for the real production scenario, as well as the scenarios for total hiring of labour and of withdrawal of subsidies, but the scenario when 100 % of feed inputs for the herd are bought-in was not viable.

Value function in economic growth model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

2017-11-01

Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

Mars Colony in situ resource utilization: An integrated architecture and economics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shishko, Robert; Fradet, René; Do, Sydney; Saydam, Serkan; Tapia-Cortez, Carlos; Dempster, Andrew G.; Coulton, Jeff

2017-09-01

This paper reports on our effort to develop an ensemble of specialized models to explore the commercial potential of mining water/ice on Mars in support of a Mars Colony. This ensemble starts with a formal systems architecting framework to describe a Mars Colony and capture its artifacts' parameters and technical attributes. The resulting database is then linked to a variety of ;downstream; analytic models. In particular, we integrated an extraction process (i.e., ;mining;) model, a simulation of the colony's environmental control and life support infrastructure known as HabNet, and a risk-based economics model. The mining model focuses on the technologies associated with in situ resource extraction, processing, storage and handling, and delivery. This model computes the production rate as a function of the systems' technical parameters and the local Mars environment. HabNet simulates the fundamental sustainability relationships associated with establishing and maintaining the colony's population. The economics model brings together market information, investment and operating costs, along with measures of market uncertainty and Monte Carlo techniques, with the objective of determining the profitability of commercial water/ice in situ mining operations. All told, over 50 market and technical parameters can be varied in order to address ;what-if; questions, including colony location.

Process simulation and techno economic analysis of renewable diesel production via catalytic decarboxylation of rubber seed oil - A case study in Malaysia.

PubMed

Cheah, Kin Wai; Yusup, Suzana; Gurdeep Singh, Haswin Kaur; Uemura, Yoshimitsu; Lam, Hon Loong

2017-12-01

This work describes the economic feasibility of hydroprocessed diesel fuel production via catalytic decarboxylation of rubber seed oil in Malaysia. A comprehensive techno-economic assessment is developed using Aspen HYSYS V8.0 software for process modelling and economic cost estimates. The profitability profile and minimum fuels selling price of this synthetic fuels production using rubber seed oil as biomass feedstock are assessed under a set of assumptions for what can be plausibly be achieved in 10-years framework. In this study, renewable diesel processing facility is modelled to be capable of processing 65,000 L of inedible oil per day and producing a total of 20 million litre of renewable diesel product per annual with assumed annual operational days of 347. With the forecasted renewable diesel retail price of 3.64 RM per kg, the pioneering renewable diesel project investment offers an assuring return of investment of 12.1% and net return as high as 1.35 million RM. Sensitivity analysis conducted showed that renewable diesel production cost is most sensitive to rubber seed oil price and hydrogen gas price, reflecting on the relative importance of feedstock prices in the overall profitability profile. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public health impact and economic evaluation of vitamin D-fortified dairy products for fracture prevention in France.

PubMed

Hiligsmann, M; Burlet, N; Fardellone, P; Al-Daghri, N; Reginster, J-Y

2017-03-01

The recommended intake of vitamin D-fortified dairy products can substantially decrease the burden of osteoporotic fractures and seems an economically beneficial strategy in the general French population aged over 60 years. This study aims to assess the public health and economic impact of vitamin D-fortified dairy products in the general French population aged over 60 years. We estimated the lifetime health impacts expressed in number of fractures prevented, life years gained, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained of the recommended intake of dairy products in the general French population over 60 years for 1 year (2015). A validated microsimulation model was used to simulate three age cohorts for both women and men (60-69, 70-79, and >80 years). The incremental cost per QALY gained of vitamin D-fortified dairy products compared to the absence of appropriate intake was estimated in different populations, assuming the cost of two dairy products per day in base case. The total lifetime number of fractures decreased by 64,932 for the recommended intake of dairy products in the general population over 60 years, of which 46,472 and 18,460 occurred in women and men, respectively. In particular, 15,087 and 4413 hip fractures could be prevented in women and men. Vitamin D-fortified dairy products also resulted in 32,569 QALYs and 29,169 life years gained. The cost per QALY gained of appropriate dairy intake was estimated at €58,244 and fall below a threshold of €30,000 per QALY gained in women over 70 years and in men over 80 years. Vitamin D-fortified dairy products have the potential to substantially reduce the burden of osteoporotic fractures in France and seem an economically beneficial strategy, especially in the general population aged above 70 years.

The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souty, F.; Brunelle, T.; Dumas, P.; Dorin, B.; Ciais, P.; Crassous, R.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.

2012-10-01

Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural lands. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. In contrast to the other land-use models linking economy and biophysics, crops are aggregated as a representative product in calories and intensification for the representative crop is a non-linear function of chemical inputs. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.

SRWC bioenergy productivity and economic feasibility on marginal lands.

PubMed

Ghezehei, Solomon B; Shifflett, Shawn D; Hazel, Dennis W; Nichols, Elizabeth Guthrie

2015-09-01

Evolving bioenergy markets necessitate consideration of marginal lands for woody biomass production worldwide particularly the southeastern U.S., a prominent wood pellet exporter to Europe. Growing short rotation woody crops (SRWCs) on marginal lands minimizes concerns about using croplands for bioenergy production and reinforces sustainability of wood supply to existing and growing global biomass markets. We estimated mean annual aboveground green biomass increments (MAIs) and assessed economic feasibility of various operationally established (0.5 ha-109 ha) SRWC stands on lands used to mitigate environmental liabilities of municipal wastewater, livestock wastewater and sludge, and subsurface contamination by petroleum and pesticides. MAIs (Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) had no consistent relationship with stand density or age. Non-irrigated Populus, Plantanus occidentalis L. and Pinus taeda L. stands produced 2.4-12.4 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1). Older, irrigated Taxodium distchum L., Fraxinus pennsylvanica L., and coppiced P. occidentalis stands had higher MAIs (10.6-21.3 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)) than irrigated Liquidambar styraciflua L. and non-coppiced, irrigated P. occidentalis (8-18 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1)). Natural hardwood MAIs at 20-60 years were less than hardwood and P. taeda productivities at 5-20 years. Unlike weed control, irrigation and coppicing improved managed hardwood productivity. Rotation length affected economic outcomes although the returns were poor due to high establishment and maintenance costs, low productivities and low current stumpage values, which are expected to quickly change with development of robust global markets. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FPL-PELPS : a price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling, supplement to PELPS III, version 1.1.

Treesearch

Patricia K. Lebow; Henry Spelter; Peter J. Ince

2003-01-01

This report provides documentation and user information for FPL-PELPS, a personal computer price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling. Originally developed to model the North American pulp and paper industry, FPL-PELPS follows its predecessors in allowing the modeling of any appropriate sector to predict consumption, production and capacity by...

Short communication: economics of sex-biased milk production.

PubMed

Ettema, J F; Østergaard, S

2015-02-01

In a recent data study using 2.4 million lactations of 1.5 million cows, it was reported that gestation of a female calf in the first parity increases cumulative milk production by approximately 445kg over the first 2 lactations. The reported effect in this study is large and remarkable because it has not been found before. To our knowledge, the economic implications of this or any other sex bias have not been studied. The objective of the current study was to quantify the reported influence of fetal sex across lactations by using a simulation model of a dairy herd including youngstock. Two scenarios were evaluated and compared with a scenario in which cows and heifers were exclusively bred with conventional (nonsexed) semen. In the first scenario, sexed semen was used moderately-on 30% of all heifers and 30% of the first parity cows. A second scenario was studied in which sexed semen was used intensively-on all heifers and 50% of the first-parity cows. The simulated proportion of cows giving birth to 2 consecutive heifers increased from 23% when using exclusively conventional semen up to 31 and 48% when using sexed semen moderately and intensively, respectively. The proportion of cows having 2 consecutive bulls decreased from 27% (conventional semen only) to 20 and 8% when using sexed semen moderately and intensively, respectively. When incorporating the sex bias in the simulation model, the simulated milk yield in the scenario in which sexed semen was used moderately increased by 48kg of energy-corrected milk (ECM) per cow/yr, compared with only 36kg of ECM when not incorporating the sex bias in the model. For the scenario in which sexed semen was used intensively, milk yield increased by 66 and 99kg of ECM when excluding and including the sex bias, respectively. The economic implications of the assumed sex bias were €4.0 and €9.9 per cow/yr, in the scenarios in which sexed semen was used moderately and intensively, respectively. Copyright © 2015 American

Estimating the economic impact of subclinical ketosis in dairy cattle using a dynamic stochastic simulation model.

PubMed

Mostert, P F; Bokkers, E A M; van Middelaar, C E; Hogeveen, H; de Boer, I J M

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the economic impact of subclinical ketosis (SCK) in dairy cows. This metabolic disorder occurs in the period around calving and is associated with an increased risk of other diseases. Therefore, SCK affects farm productivity and profitability. Estimating the economic impact of SCK may make farmers more aware of this problem, and can improve their decision-making regarding interventions to reduce SCK. We developed a dynamic stochastic simulation model that enables estimating the economic impact of SCK and related diseases (i.e. mastitis, metritis, displaced abomasum, lameness and clinical ketosis) occurring during the first 30 days after calving. This model, which was applied to a typical Dutch dairy herd, groups cows according to their parity (1 to 5+), and simulates the dynamics of SCK and related diseases, and milk production per cow during one lactation. The economic impact of SCK and related diseases resulted from a reduced milk production, discarded milk, treatment costs, costs from a prolonged calving interval and removal (culling or dying) of cows. The total costs of SCK were €130 per case per year, with a range between €39 and €348 (5 to 95 percentiles). The total costs of SCK per case per year, moreover, increased from €83 per year in parity 1 to €175 in parity 3. Most cows with SCK, however, had SCK only (61%), and costs were €58 per case per year. Total costs of SCK per case per year resulted for 36% from a prolonged calving interval, 24% from reduced milk production, 19% from treatment, 14% from discarded milk and 6% from removal. Results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the disease incidence, removal risk, relations of SCK with other diseases and prices of milk resulted in a high variation of costs of SCK. The costs of SCK, therefore, might differ per farm because of farm-specific circumstances. Improving data collection on the incidence of SCK and related diseases, and on consequences of

A neuro-computational model of economic decisions.

PubMed

Rustichini, Aldo; Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

2015-09-01

Neuronal recordings and lesion studies indicate that key aspects of economic decisions take place in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). Previous work identified in this area three groups of neurons encoding the offer value, the chosen value, and the identity of the chosen good. An important and open question is whether and how decisions could emerge from a neural circuit formed by these three populations. Here we adapted a biophysically realistic neural network previously proposed for perceptual decisions (Wang XJ. Neuron 36: 955-968, 2002; Wong KF, Wang XJ. J Neurosci 26: 1314-1328, 2006). The domain of economic decisions is significantly broader than that for which the model was originally designed, yet the model performed remarkably well. The input and output nodes of the network were naturally mapped onto two groups of cells in OFC. Surprisingly, the activity of interneurons in the network closely resembled that of the third group of cells, namely, chosen value cells. The model reproduced several phenomena related to the neuronal origins of choice variability. It also generated testable predictions on the excitatory/inhibitory nature of different neuronal populations and on their connectivity. Some aspects of the empirical data were not reproduced, but simple extensions of the model could overcome these limitations. These results render a biologically credible model for the neuronal mechanisms of economic decisions. They demonstrate that choices could emerge from the activity of cells in the OFC, suggesting that chosen value cells directly participate in the decision process. Importantly, Wang's model provides a platform to investigate the implications of neuroscience results for economic theory. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Techno-economic analysis of ethanol production from sugarcane bagasse using a Liquefaction plus Simultaneous Saccharification and co-Fermentation process.

PubMed

Gubicza, Krisztina; Nieves, Ismael U; Sagues, William J; Barta, Zsolt; Shanmugam, K T; Ingram, Lonnie O

2016-05-01

A techno-economic analysis was conducted for a simplified lignocellulosic ethanol production process developed and proven by the University of Florida at laboratory, pilot, and demonstration scales. Data obtained from all three scales of development were used with Aspen Plus to create models for an experimentally-proven base-case and 5 hypothetical scenarios. The model input parameters that differed among the hypothetical scenarios were fermentation time, enzyme loading, enzymatic conversion, solids loading, and overall process yield. The minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) varied between 50.38 and 62.72 US cents/L. The feedstock and the capital cost were the main contributors to the production cost, comprising between 23-28% and 40-49% of the MESP, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that overall ethanol yield had the greatest effect on the MESP. These findings suggest that future efforts to increase the economic feasibility of a cellulosic ethanol process should focus on optimization for highest ethanol yield. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

2014-01-01

The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

Current Challenges in Health Economic Modeling of Cancer Therapies: A Research Inquiry

PubMed Central

Miller, Jeffrey D.; Foley, Kathleen A.; Russell, Mason W.

2014-01-01

Background The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. Objectives We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Methods Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. Discussion There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented

Current challenges in health economic modeling of cancer therapies: a research inquiry.

PubMed

Miller, Jeffrey D; Foley, Kathleen A; Russell, Mason W

2014-05-01

The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Complex technical and

Techno-economic analysis of biocatalytic processes for production of alkene expoxides

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Borole, Abhijeet P

2007-01-01

A techno-economic analysis of two different bioprocesses was conducted, one for the conversion of propylene to propylene oxide (PO) and other for conversion of styrene to styrene expoxide (SO). The first process was a lipase-mediated chemo-enzymatic reaction, whereas the second one was a one-step enzymatic process using chloroperoxidase. The PO produced through the chemo-enzymatic process is a racemic product, whereas the latter process (based on chloroperoxidase) produces an enantio-pure product. The former process thus falls under the category of high-volume commodity chemical (PO); whereas the latter is a low-volume, high-value product (SO).A simulation of the process was conducted using themore » bioprocess engineering software SuperPro Designer v6.0 (Intelligen, Inc., Scotch Plains, NJ) to determine the economic feasibility of the process. The purpose of the exercise was to compare biocatalytic processes with existing chemical processes for production of alkene expoxides. The results show that further improvements are needed in improving biocatalyst stability to make these bioprocesses competitive with chemical processes.« less

Climate Impact and Economic Feasibility of Solar Thermochemical Jet Fuel Production.

PubMed

Falter, Christoph; Batteiger, Valentin; Sizmann, Andreas

2016-01-05

Solar thermochemistry presents a promising option for the efficient conversion of H2O and CO2 into liquid hydrocarbon fuels using concentrated solar energy. To explore the potential of this fuel production pathway, the climate impact and economic performance are analyzed. Key drivers for the economic and ecological performance are thermochemical energy conversion efficiency, the level of solar irradiation, operation and maintenance, and the initial investment in the fuel production plant. For the baseline case of a solar tower concentrator with CO2 capture from air, jet fuel production costs of 2.23 €/L and life cycle greenhouse gas (LC GHG) emissions of 0.49 kgCO2-equiv/L are estimated. Capturing CO2 from a natural gas combined cycle power plant instead of the air reduces the production costs by 15% but leads to LC GHG emissions higher than that of conventional jet fuel. Favorable assumptions for all involved process steps (30% thermochemical energy conversion efficiency, 3000 kWh/(m(2) a) solar irradiation, low CO2 and heliostat costs) result in jet fuel production costs of 1.28 €/L at LC GHG emissions close to zero. Even lower production costs may be achieved if the commercial value of oxygen as a byproduct is considered.

A health economic lifetime treatment pathway model for low back pain in Sweden.

PubMed

Olafsson, Gylfi; Jonsson, Emma; Fritzell, Peter; Hägg, Olle; Borgström, Fredrik

2017-12-01

To develop a health economic model to evaluate the long-term costs and outcomes over the healthcare treatment pathway for patients with low back pain (LBP). A health economic model, consisting of a decision tree structure with a Markov microsimulation model at the end of each branch, was created. Patients were followed from first observed clinical presentation with LBP until the age of 100 years or death. The underlying data to populate the model were based on Swedish national and regional registry data on healthcare resource use and sickness insurance in patients presenting with LBP in the Swedish region Västra Götaland during 2008-2012. Costs (outpatient healthcare visits, inpatient bed days, pharmaceuticals, productivity loss), EUR 2016, and quality-of-life based on EQ-5D data from the registries and published estimates were summarized over the lifetime of the patients with 3% annual discount. A lost quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was valued at €70,000. Mean lifetime total cost was estimated at €47,452/patient, of which indirect costs were 57%. Total lifetime economic burden for all patients coming to clinical presentation in Sweden per year was €8.8bn. The average LBP patient was estimated to face a loss of 2.7 QALYs over their lifetime compared with the general population. For all patients in Sweden coming to clinical presentation in 1 year this gives 505,407 QALYs lost, valued at €35.3bn. Adding the economic burden, the total societal burden amounts to €44.1bn. This pathway model shows that most patients with LBP receive conservative care, and a minority consume high-cost healthcare interventions like surgery. The model could be used to see broad economic effects of different patterns of healthcare provision in sub-groups with LBP and to estimate where it is possible to influence these pathways to increase utility for patients and for society.

The economic feasibility of seawater desalination over the global scale: assessment of the production cost development and national water price until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, L.; Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

As many countries are suffering water scarcity due to the climate change and human activities, seawater desalination using reverse osmosis (SWRO) has shown to be a progressively promising countermeasure to satisfy the growing water demand. Therefore, the economic feasibility assessment of SWRO will be beneficial for the potential investors and policy-makers of government. In present study, it have proposed a systematic method to evaluate the economic feasibility of implementing SWRO in 140 counties and further estimated the potential future diffusion of SWRO over global scale by 2050. To the purpose, two models has been separately developed to simulate the production cost of SWRO and conventional water price, which are identified as the critical economic factors for feasibility evaluation of SWRO. These two models were firstly applied to historical validation in which proven to be able to well simulate both these two economic factors, and then were applied globally for future simulation over the period of 2015-2050 under three socioeconomic scenarios, i.e. SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 1-3. Basin on the estimated production cost and water price, the economic feasibility of adopting SWRO coupling with its future potentialities were carefully evaluated. As a result, it indicated that SWRO was expected to be cost-effectively adopted in more countries by 2050, especially in these developing countries. The significant potential diffusion of SWRO in countries was mainly attributed to both the diminishing production cost and the increasing conventional water price as a result of income growth globally in three SSPs scenarios.

An economic and ecological perspective of ethanol production from renewable agro waste: a review

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Agro-industrial wastes are generated during the industrial processing of agricultural products. These wastes are generated in large amounts throughout the year, and are the most abundant renewable resources on earth. Due to the large availability and composition rich in compounds that could be used in other processes, there is a great interest on the reuse of these wastes, both from economical and environmental view points. The economic aspect is based on the fact that such wastes may be used as low-cost raw materials for the production of other value-added compounds, with the expectancy of reducing the production costs. The environmental concern is because most of the agro-industrial wastes contain phenolic compounds and/or other compounds of toxic potential; which may cause deterioration of the environment when the waste is discharged to the nature. Although the production of bioethanol offers many benefits, more research is needed in the aspects like feedstock preparation, fermentation technology modification, etc., to make bioethanol more economically viable. PMID:23217124

The global impact of non-communicable diseases on macro-economic productivity: a systematic review.

PubMed

Chaker, Layal; Falla, Abby; van der Lee, Sven J; Muka, Taulant; Imo, David; Jaspers, Loes; Colpani, Veronica; Mendis, Shanthi; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Bramer, Wichor M; Pazoki, Raha; Franco, Oscar H

2015-05-01

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have large economic impact at multiple levels. To systematically review the literature investigating the economic impact of NCDs [including coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), cancer (lung, colon, cervical and breast), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD)] on macro-economic productivity. Systematic search, up to November 6th 2014, of medical databases (Medline, Embase and Google Scholar) without language restrictions. To identify additional publications, we searched the reference lists of retrieved studies and contacted authors in the field. Randomized controlled trials, cohort, case-control, cross-sectional, ecological studies and modelling studies carried out in adults (>18 years old) were included. Two independent reviewers performed all abstract and full text selection. Disagreements were resolved through consensus or consulting a third reviewer. Two independent reviewers extracted data using a predesigned data collection form. Main outcome measure was the impact of the selected NCDs on productivity, measured in DALYs, productivity costs, and labor market participation, including unemployment, return to work and sick leave. From 4542 references, 126 studies met the inclusion criteria, many of which focused on the impact of more than one NCD on productivity. Breast cancer was the most common (n = 45), followed by stroke (n = 31), COPD (n = 24), colon cancer (n = 24), DM (n = 22), lung cancer (n = 16), CVD (n = 15), cervical cancer (n = 7) and CKD (n = 2). Four studies were from the WHO African Region, 52 from the European Region, 53 from the Region of the Americas and 16 from the Western Pacific Region, one from the Eastern Mediterranean Region and none from South East Asia. We found large regional differences in DALYs attributable to NCDs but especially for cervical and lung cancer. Productivity losses in the USA ranged from 88 million

Integrated Emergy and Economic Evaluation of Tea Production Chains in Anxi, China

EPA Science Inventory

Emergy and economic methods were used to evaluate and compare tea production systems in Anxi, China. Tea production was classified into three phases, i.e., the nursery, the plantation and tea processing, and each phase was evaluated. The results showed that the nursery subsystems...

Can Russia Reform? Economic, Political, and Military Perspectives

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

formation of a diversified economic model , it did not halt the growth of the gap between Russia and the developed world either. The result will be...years. The pure model was a unitary state economic governance scheme where Tsars, (principals) unable to micro-plan and command production...subsistence, and dividing the booty arbitrarily among themselves. TSARIST STATE ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT REFORM The core model served its purpose and was

A Simple Economic Model of Cocaine Production

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-01-01

been important, often dominant, in U.S. relationships with the Andean region and, at times, with Burma, Mexico , Pakistan, and Turkey. The effort to...control drug production overseas has generally been viewed as ineffective. Mexico , the most cooperative of the source countries, continues to produce...attractive option, since the program would not face the difficulties presented in Mexico (the only country with an active program) of small, dispersed

JEDI Marine and Hydrokinetic Power Model | Jobs and Economic Development

Science.gov Websites

Model The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Marine Hydrokinetic Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from marine hydrokinetic projects and includes default information

A biological and economic comparison of 2 pasture-based production systems on a wetland drumlin soil in the northern region of Ireland.

PubMed

Patton, D; Shalloo, L; Pierce, K M; Horan, B

2012-01-01

The objective of this study was to compare the biological and economic efficiencies of 2 likely future pasture-based systems of milk production differing in overall stocking rate and concentrate supplementation level on a wetland drumlin soil in the Border Midlands Western region of Ireland. Physical performance data were obtained from a 3-yr systems comparison at Ballyhaise College, Co. Cavan, comparing 2 production systems: a high grass (HG) system (578 kg of concentrate/cow at 2.45 livestock units per hectare) and a high intensity (HI) system (1,365 kg of concentrate/cow at 2.92 livestock units/ha). Animal production data were analyzed using a mixed model, with feed system, year, and parity included as fixed effects in the final model. Feed system had a significant effect on all yield variables with higher yields in the HI system. Production system had no significant influence on reproductive performance. The Moorepark Dairy Systems Model, a stochastic budgetary simulation model, was used to simulate a model farm integrating biological data from each feed system to identify the economic effect of each system at 3 future milk prices of 22, 27, and 33 euro cents per liter (€c/L). Two economic scenarios were investigated within the model: scenario 1 (S1) assumed fixed cow numbers (n=55 cows) and scenario 2 (S2) assumed fixed land area (n=40 ha). At a milk price of 27 or 33 €c/L, profit per cow, per kilogram of milk solids, and per hectare were similar for HG and HI in S1 and higher for HI in S2. At a milk price of 22 €c/L, all systems were unprofitable, with increased losses realized in the HI system (both S1 and S2) compared with the HG system. Pasture-based systems of milk production in the northern region of Ireland are capable of highly efficient and profitable milk production. Moreover, the efficacy of increased supplementation to remove the constraints of pasture seasonality will depend on the cost of supplementation and the price paid for additional

Mathematical modeling of a multi-product EMQ model with an enhanced end items issuing policy and failures in rework.

PubMed

Chiu, Yuan-Shyi Peter; Sung, Peng-Cheng; Chiu, Singa Wang; Chou, Chung-Li

2015-01-01

This study uses mathematical modeling to examine a multi-product economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ) model with an enhanced end items issuing policy and rework failures. We assume that a multi-product EMQ model randomly generates nonconforming items. All of the defective are reworked, but a certain portion fails and becomes scraps. When rework process ends and the entire lot of each product is quality assured, a cost reduction n + 1 end items issuing policy is used to transport finished items of each product. As a result, a closed-form optimal production cycle time is obtained. A numerical example demonstrates the practical usage of our result and confirms a significant savings in stock holding and overall production costs as compared to that of a prior work (Chiu et al. in J Sci Ind Res India, 72:435-440 2013) in the literature.

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

1983-01-01

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Economic comparison between conventional and disposables-based technology for the production of biopharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Novais, J L; Titchener-Hooker, N J; Hoare, M

2001-10-20

Time to market, cost effectiveness, and flexibility are key issues in today's biopharmaceutical market. Bioprocessing plants based on fully disposable, presterilized, and prevalidated components appear as an attractive alternative to conventional stainless steel plants, potentially allowing for shorter implementation times, smaller initial investments, and increased flexibility. To evaluate the economic case of such an alternative it was necessary to develop an appropriate costing model which allows an economic comparison between conventional and disposables-based engineering to be made. The production of an antibody fragment from an E. coli fermentation was used to provide a case study for both routes. The conventional bioprocessing option was costed through available models, which were then modified to account for the intrinsic differences observed in a disposables-based option. The outcome of the analysis indicates that the capital investment required for a disposables-based option is substantially reduced at less than 60% of that for a conventional option. The disposables-based running costs were evaluated as being 70% higher than those of the conventional equivalent. Despite this higher value, the net present value (NPV) of the disposables-based plant is positive and within 25% of that for the conventional plant. Sensitivity analysis performed on key variables indicated the robustness of the economic analysis presented. In particular a 9-month reduction in time to market arising from the adoption of a disposables-based approach, results in a NPV which is identical to that of the conventional option. Finally, the effect of any possible loss in yield resulting from the use of disposables was also examined. This had only a limited impact on the NPV: for example, a 50% lower yield in the disposable chromatography step results in a 10% reduction of the disposable NPV. The results provide the necessary framework for the economic comparison of disposables and

Principles of Economics Textbooks: Innovation and Product Differentiation--A Response.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sichel, Werner

1988-01-01

Focusing on areas of contention, the author responds to "Principles of Economics Textbooks: Innovation and Product Differentiation" by Stiglitz. Contends that Stiglitz's description of principles textbooks is insufficient, states that the textbook market is more oligopolistic than monopolistic, and cautions writers against deleting parts…

The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souty, F.; Brunelle, T.; Dumas, P.; Dorin, B.; Ciais, P.; Crassous, R.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.

2012-02-01

Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. The land-use modelling approach described in this paper entails several advantages. Firstly, it makes it possible to explore interactions among different types of biomass demand for food and animal feed, in a consistent approach, including indirect effects on land-use change resulting from international trade. Secondly, yield variations induced by the possible expansion of croplands on less suitable marginal lands are modelled by using regional land area distributions of potential yields, and a calculated boundary between intensive and extensive production. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy

Economic losses to Iberian swine production from forest fires

Treesearch

Juan Ramon Molina Martinez; Miguel Herrera Machuca; Ricardo Zamora Diaz; Fancisco Rodriguez y Silva; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

2011-01-01

Most forestry property in Andalusia is privately held. One of the most important possibilities for economic development of rural areas is the use of pasture lands (dehesa in Spanish). During the spring–summer season, swine grazing takes advantage of grasses between the trees, and during winter (harsher times), they use Quercus tree fruit. Swine production has a direct...

Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging.

PubMed

Jackson, Christopher H; Thompson, Simon G; Sharples, Linda D

2009-04-01

Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aortic aneurysms. In model averaging, competing models are usually either weighted by using an asymptotically consistent model assessment criterion, such as the Bayesian information criterion, or a measure of predictive ability, such as Akaike's information criterion. We argue that the predictive approach is more suitable when modelling the complex underlying processes of interest in health economics, such as individual disease progression and response to treatment.

Accounting for uncertainty in health economic decision models by using model averaging

PubMed Central

Jackson, Christopher H; Thompson, Simon G; Sharples, Linda D

2009-01-01

Health economic decision models are subject to considerable uncertainty, much of which arises from choices between several plausible model structures, e.g. choices of covariates in a regression model. Such structural uncertainty is rarely accounted for formally in decision models but can be addressed by model averaging. We discuss the most common methods of averaging models and the principles underlying them. We apply them to a comparison of two surgical techniques for repairing abdominal aortic aneurysms. In model averaging, competing models are usually either weighted by using an asymptotically consistent model assessment criterion, such as the Bayesian information criterion, or a measure of predictive ability, such as Akaike's information criterion. We argue that the predictive approach is more suitable when modelling the complex underlying processes of interest in health economics, such as individual disease progression and response to treatment. PMID:19381329

Biomedical progress rates as new parameters for models of economic growth in developed countries.

PubMed

Zhavoronkov, Alex; Litovchenko, Maria

2013-11-08

While the doubling of life expectancy in developed countries during the 20th century can be attributed mostly to decreases in child mortality, the trillions of dollars spent on biomedical research by governments, foundations and corporations over the past sixty years are also yielding longevity dividends in both working and retired population. Biomedical progress will likely increase the healthy productive lifespan and the number of years of government support in the old age. In this paper we introduce several new parameters that can be applied to established models of economic growth: the biomedical progress rate, the rate of clinical adoption and the rate of change in retirement age. The biomedical progress rate is comprised of the rejuvenation rate (extending the productive lifespan) and the non-rejuvenating rate (extending the lifespan beyond the age at which the net contribution to the economy becomes negative). While staying within the neoclassical economics framework and extending the overlapping generations (OLG) growth model and assumptions from the life cycle theory of saving behavior, we provide an example of the relations between these new parameters in the context of demographics, labor, households and the firm.

Biomedical Progress Rates as New Parameters for Models of Economic Growth in Developed Countries

PubMed Central

Zhavoronkov, Alex; Litovchenko, Maria

2013-01-01

While the doubling of life expectancy in developed countries during the 20th century can be attributed mostly to decreases in child mortality, the trillions of dollars spent on biomedical research by governments, foundations and corporations over the past sixty years are also yielding longevity dividends in both working and retired population. Biomedical progress will likely increase the healthy productive lifespan and the number of years of government support in the old age. In this paper we introduce several new parameters that can be applied to established models of economic growth: the biomedical progress rate, the rate of clinical adoption and the rate of change in retirement age. The biomedical progress rate is comprised of the rejuvenation rate (extending the productive lifespan) and the non-rejuvenating rate (extending the lifespan beyond the age at which the net contribution to the economy becomes negative). While staying within the neoclassical economics framework and extending the overlapping generations (OLG) growth model and assumptions from the life cycle theory of saving behavior, we provide an example of the relations between these new parameters in the context of demographics, labor, households and the firm. PMID:24217179

Measuring the intangibles: a metrics for the economic complexity of countries and products.

PubMed

Cristelli, Matthieu; Gabrielli, Andrea; Tacchella, Andrea; Caldarelli, Guido; Pietronero, Luciano

2013-01-01

We investigate a recent methodology we have proposed to extract valuable information on the competitiveness of countries and complexity of products from trade data. Standard economic theories predict a high level of specialization of countries in specific industrial sectors. However, a direct analysis of the official databases of exported products by all countries shows that the actual situation is very different. Countries commonly considered as developed ones are extremely diversified, exporting a large variety of products from very simple to very complex. At the same time countries generally considered as less developed export only the products also exported by the majority of countries. This situation calls for the introduction of a non-monetary and non-income-based measure for country economy complexity which uncovers the hidden potential for development and growth. The statistical approach we present here consists of coupled non-linear maps relating the competitiveness/fitness of countries to the complexity of their products. The fixed point of this transformation defines a metrics for the fitness of countries and the complexity of products. We argue that the key point to properly extract the economic information is the non-linearity of the map which is necessary to bound the complexity of products by the fitness of the less competitive countries exporting them. We present a detailed comparison of the results of this approach directly with those of the Method of Reflections by Hidalgo and Hausmann, showing the better performance of our method and a more solid economic, scientific and consistent foundation.

Measuring the Intangibles: A Metrics for the Economic Complexity of Countries and Products

PubMed Central

Cristelli, Matthieu; Gabrielli, Andrea; Tacchella, Andrea; Caldarelli, Guido; Pietronero, Luciano

2013-01-01

We investigate a recent methodology we have proposed to extract valuable information on the competitiveness of countries and complexity of products from trade data. Standard economic theories predict a high level of specialization of countries in specific industrial sectors. However, a direct analysis of the official databases of exported products by all countries shows that the actual situation is very different. Countries commonly considered as developed ones are extremely diversified, exporting a large variety of products from very simple to very complex. At the same time countries generally considered as less developed export only the products also exported by the majority of countries. This situation calls for the introduction of a non-monetary and non-income-based measure for country economy complexity which uncovers the hidden potential for development and growth. The statistical approach we present here consists of coupled non-linear maps relating the competitiveness/fitness of countries to the complexity of their products. The fixed point of this transformation defines a metrics for the fitness of countries and the complexity of products. We argue that the key point to properly extract the economic information is the non-linearity of the map which is necessary to bound the complexity of products by the fitness of the less competitive countries exporting them. We present a detailed comparison of the results of this approach directly with those of the Method of Reflections by Hidalgo and Hausmann, showing the better performance of our method and a more solid economic, scientific and consistent foundation. PMID:23940633

Microalgal cultivation for value-added products: a critical enviro-economical assessment.

PubMed

Kothari, Richa; Pandey, Arya; Ahmad, Shamshad; Kumar, Ashwani; Pathak, Vinayak V; Tyagi, V V

2017-08-01

The present review focuses on the cultivation of algal biomass for generating value-added products (VAP) and to assess their economic benefits and harmful environmental impact. Additionally, the impact of bioreactor designs on the yield of microalgal biomass for VAP is also considered. All these factors are discussed in relation to the impact of microalgae production on the bio-economy sector of commercial biotechnology.

Techno-economic analysis of bioethanol production from lignocellulosic residues in Colombia: a process simulation approach.

PubMed

Quintero, Julián A; Moncada, Jonathan; Cardona, Carlos A

2013-07-01

In this study a techno-economic analysis of the production of bioethanol from four lignocellusic (Sugarcane bagasse, Coffee cut-stems, Rice Husk, and Empty Fruit Bunches) residues is presented for the Colombian case. The ethanol production was evaluated using Aspen Plus and Aspen Process Economic Analyzer carrying out the simulation and the economic evaluation, respectively. Simulations included the composition of lignocellulosic residues, which was determined experimentally. It was found that empty fruit bunches presents the highest ethanol yield from a dry basis point of view (313.83 L/t), while rice husk produced less ethanol (250.56 L/t). The ethanol production cost was assessed for the standalone ethanol plant and the ethanol plant coupled with a cogeneration system. Moreover, ethanol production cost using EFB was the lowest with (0.49 US$/L) and without (0.58 US$/L) cogeneration scheme. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Addressing Hydro-economic Modeling Limitations - A Limited Foresight Sacramento Valley Model and an Open-source Modeling Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harou, J. J.; Hansen, K. M.

2008-12-01

Increased scarcity of world water resources is inevitable given the limited supply and increased human pressures. The idea that "some scarcity is optimal" must be accepted for rational resource use and infrastructure management decisions to be made. Hydro-economic systems models are unique at representing the overlap of economic drivers, socio-political forces and distributed water resource systems. They demonstrate the tangible benefits of cooperation and integrated flexible system management. Further improvement of models, quality control practices and software will be needed for these academic policy tools to become accepted into mainstream water resource practice. Promising features include: calibration methods, limited foresight optimization formulations, linked simulation-optimization approaches (e.g. embedding pre-existing calibrated simulation models), spatial groundwater models, stream-aquifer interactions and stream routing, etc.. Conventional user-friendly decision support systems helped spread simulation models on a massive scale. Hydro-economic models must also find a means to facilitate construction, distribution and use. Some of these issues and model features are illustrated with a hydro-economic optimization model of the Sacramento Valley. Carry-over storage value functions are used to limit hydrologic foresight of the multi- period optimization model. Pumping costs are included in the formulation by tracking regional piezometric head of groundwater sub-basins. To help build and maintain this type of network model, an open-source water management modeling software platform is described and initial project work is discussed. The objective is to generically facilitate the connection of models, such as those developed in a modeling environment (GAMS, MatLab, Octave, "), to a geographic user interface (drag and drop node-link network) and a database (topology, parameters and time series). These features aim to incrementally move hydro- economic models

Culturally and economically important nontimber forest products of northern Maine

Treesearch

Michelle J. Baumflek; Marla R. Emery; Clare Ginger

2010-01-01

Nontimber forest products (NTFPs) gathered for food, medicine, craft, spiritual, aesthetic, and utilitarian purposes make substantial contributions to the economic viability and cultural vitality of communities. In the St. John River watershed of northern Maine, people identifying with cultural groups including Acadian, Maliseet, Mi'kmaq, Scotch-Irish, and Swedish...

Economic assessment of the construction industry: A construction-economics nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barber, Herbert Marion, Jr.

The purpose of this study was to conduct an economic assessment of the construction industry. More specifically, this study addresses ambiguities within the literature that are associated with the construction-economics nexus. The researcher 1) investigated the relationships between economic indicators and stock prices of U.S. construction equipment manufacturers, 2) investigated the relationships between energy production, consumption, and corruption, and 3) determined the economic effect electricity generation and electricity consumption has on economies of scale. The researcher used descriptive and inferential statistics in this study and determined that economists, researchers, policy-makers, and others should have predicted the 2007-08 world economic collapse 5-6 years prior to realization of the event given that construction indices and GDP grossly regressed from statistically acceptable trends as early as 2002 and perhaps 2000. Substantiating this claim, the effect of the cost of construction materials and labor, i.e. construction index, on GDP was significant for years leading up to the collapse (1970-2007). Additionally, it was determined that energy production and consumption are predictors of governmental corruption in some countries. In the Republic of Botswana, for example, the researcher determined that energy production and consumption statistically jointly effected governmental corruption. In addition to determining statistical effect, a model for predicting governmental corruption was developed based on energy production and consumption volumes. Also, the researcher found that electricity generation in the 25 largest world economies had a statistically significant effect on GDP. Electricity consumption also had an effect on GDP, as well, but not on other economic indicators. More importantly than the quantitative findings, the researcher concluded that the construction-economics nexus is far more complex than most policy-makers realize. As such

Medico-economic evaluation of health products in the context of the Social Security Financing Act for 2012.

PubMed

Dervaux, Benoît; Baseilhac, Eric; Fagon, Jean-Yves; Ameye, Véronique; Angot, Pierre; Audry, Antoine; Becquemont, Laurent; Borel, Thomas; Cazeneuve, Béatrice; Courtois, Jocelyn; Detournay, Bruno; Favre, Pascal; Granger, Muriel; Josseran, Anne; Lassale, Catherine; Louvet, Olivier; Pinson, Jean; de Pouvourville, Gérard; Rochaix, Lise; Rumeau-Pichon, Catherine; de Saab, Rima; Schwarzinger, Mickaël; Sun, Aristide

2013-01-01

The participants in round table 6 of the Giens Workshops 2012 drafted recommendations based on the collective interpretation of important elements of the decree concerning the medico-economic evaluation of health products published a few days earlier (02 October 2012). The medico-economic evaluation (MEE), becomes an additional determinant for fixing the prices of health products by the Health products economic committee (Comité économique des produits de santé, CEPS) via the hierarchisation of treatment strategies, and thus modifies the market access conditions. Limiting the analysis to medicinal products and medical devices for which a major, important or moderate improvement in the medical service rendered (ASMR) or of the expected service (ASA) has been requested and presenting a significant budget impact on the Social Security expenses, excludes health products with ASMR or ASA with a lower level requested which often create complex price fixing problems and often have a major budget impact. This latter concept remains to be defined in detail. The MEE envisaged for the first registration must include the need to confirm or refute the initial hypotheses especially concerning the actual position in the therapeutic strategy at the time of renewal of the registration. For the first registration, the conventional reference to European prices guaranteeing a minimum price to innovative medicinal products, the medico-economic models submitted by the industry to the French Drug Authority (Haute autorité de santé, HAS) must be used to guide the compilation of new data to be requested at the time of the registration renewal and to negotiate the level of the discounts in the framework of a price-volume agreement, if applicable. The MEE will allow comparing the result of the analysis to the model hypothesis at the time of the renewal of the registration, which may contribute to the renegotiation (either up or down) of the price of health goods. The costs related to

JEDI Conventional Hydropower Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact

Science.gov Websites

Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Conventional Hydropower Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from conventional hydropower projects and includes default information that can be

The Contribution of Education to Economic Productivity. Schooling in a Technological Society.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Bevoise, Wynn

According to traditional measures, the productivity of the American worker has declined. If education's contribution to economic productivity is to be imprortant in this decade, the measures need better definition. Technology has affected our perception of how much education is required to keep pace with growth. Those who believe there is a…

Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, Jon David

The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

A conceptual framework for economic optimization of single hazard surveillance in livestock production chains.

PubMed

Guo, Xuezhen; Claassen, G D H; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Saatkamp, H W

2014-06-01

Economic analysis of hazard surveillance in livestock production chains is essential for surveillance organizations (such as food safety authorities) when making scientifically based decisions on optimization of resource allocation. To enable this, quantitative decision support tools are required at two levels of analysis: (1) single-hazard surveillance system and (2) surveillance portfolio. This paper addresses the first level by presenting a conceptual approach for the economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems. The concept includes objective and subjective aspects of single-hazard surveillance system analysis: (1) a simulation part to derive an efficient set of surveillance setups based on the technical surveillance performance parameters (TSPPs) and the corresponding surveillance costs, i.e., objective analysis, and (2) a multi-criteria decision making model to evaluate the impacts of the hazard surveillance, i.e., subjective analysis. The conceptual approach was checked for (1) conceptual validity and (2) data validity. Issues regarding the practical use of the approach, particularly the data requirement, were discussed. We concluded that the conceptual approach is scientifically credible for economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems and that the practicability of the approach depends on data availability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Guidelines for economic analysis of pharmaceutical products: a draft document for Ontario and Canada.

PubMed

Detsky, A S

1993-05-01

In Canada, provincial formulary review committees consider the effectiveness, safety, and cost of products when they derive advice for each Minister of Health. This article offers a draft set of guidelines for pharmaceutical manufacturers making submissions which include economic information, moving beyond a simple presentation of the unit price of the pharmaceutical product (e.g. price per day or course of therapy) and comparison to similar prices for alternative products. A full economic analysis compares all relevant costs and clinical outcomes of the new product with alternate therapeutic strategies for treating patients with a particular condition. The perspective of the decision maker must be clearly identified. The quality of the evidence supporting estimates of the variables incorporated in the analysis should be evaluated. Sensitivity analyses are used to assess the robustness of the qualitative conclusions. Reviewers will examine the answers to a set of 19 questions. Manufacturers can use these questions as a worksheet for preparation of an economic analysis to be incorporated in a submission. These guidelines are intended to be a starting point for further refinement, and discussion with health economists in industry and academia. Considerable flexibility will be used in reviewing documentation supporting economic analysis. Those preparing submissions should be encouraged to experiment with various approaches as part of the general development of this field and to engage provincial review committees in ongoing discussions.

Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

2013-04-01

Hydrologic-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure management at the river basin scale. These models simultaneously analyze engineering, hydrology and economic aspects of water resources management. Two new tools have been designed to develop models within this approach: a simulation tool (SIM_GAMS), for models in which water is allocated each month based on supply priorities to competing uses and system operating rules, and an optimization tool (OPT_GAMS), in which water resources are allocated optimally following economic criteria. The characterization of the water resource network system requires a connectivity matrix representing the topology of the elements, generated using HydroPlatform. HydroPlatform, an open-source software platform for network (node-link) models, allows to store, display and export all information needed to characterize the system. Two generic non-linear models have been programmed in GAMS to use the inputs from HydroPlatform in simulation and optimization models. The simulation model allocates water resources on a monthly basis, according to different targets (demands, storage, environmental flows, hydropower production, etc.), priorities and other system operating rules (such as reservoir operating rules). The optimization model's objective function is designed so that the system meets operational targets (ranked according to priorities) each month while following system operating rules. This function is analogous to the one used in the simulation module of the DSS AQUATOOL. Each element of the system has its own contribution to the objective function through unit cost coefficients that preserve the relative priority rank and the system operating rules. The model incorporates groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction (allowing conjunctive use simulation) with a wide range of modeling options, from lumped and analytical approaches to parameter-distributed models (eigenvalue approach). Such

About JEDI | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models | NREL

Science.gov Websites

About JEDI About JEDI The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly screening tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power plants, fuel from industry norms), JEDI estimates the number of jobs and economic impacts to a local area that can

Home Economics Education Career Path Guide and Model Curriculum Standards.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

California State Univ., Northridge.

This curriculum guide developed in California and organized in 10 chapters, provides a home economics education career path guide and model curriculum standards for high school home economics programs. The first chapter contains information on the following: home economics education in California, home economics careers for the future, home…

NEUROBIOLOGY OF ECONOMIC CHOICE: A GOOD-BASED MODEL

PubMed Central

Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

2012-01-01

Traditionally the object of economic theory and experimental psychology, economic choice recently became a lively research focus in systems neuroscience. Here I summarize the emerging results and I propose a unifying model of how economic choice might function at the neural level. Economic choice entails comparing options that vary on multiple dimensions. Hence, while choosing, individuals integrate different determinants into a subjective value; decisions are then made by comparing values. According to the good-based model, the values of different goods are computed independently of one another, which implies transitivity. Values are not learned as such, but rather computed at the time of choice. Most importantly, values are compared within the space of goods, independent of the sensori-motor contingencies of choice. Evidence from neurophysiology, imaging and lesion studies indicates that abstract representations of value exist in the orbitofrontal and ventromedial prefrontal cortices. The computation and comparison of values may thus take place within these regions. PMID:21456961

Techno Economic Analysis of Hydrogen Production by gasification of biomass

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Francis Lau

Biomass represents a large potential feedstock resource for environmentally clean processes that produce power or chemicals. It lends itself to both biological and thermal conversion processes and both options are currently being explored. Hydrogen can be produced in a variety of ways. The majority of the hydrogen produced in this country is produced through natural gas reforming and is used as chemical feedstock in refinery operations. In this report we will examine the production of hydrogen by gasification of biomass. Biomass is defined as organic matter that is available on a renewable basis through natural processes or as a by-productmore » of processes that use renewable resources. The majority of biomass is used in combustion processes, in mills that use the renewable resources, to produce electricity for end-use product generation. This report will explore the use of hydrogen as a fuel derived from gasification of three candidate biomass feedstocks: bagasse, switchgrass, and a nutshell mix that consists of 40% almond nutshell, 40% almond prunings, and 20% walnut shell. In this report, an assessment of the technical and economic potential of producing hydrogen from biomass gasification is analyzed. The resource base was assessed to determine a process scale from feedstock costs and availability. Solids handling systems were researched. A GTI proprietary gasifier model was used in combination with a Hysys(reg. sign) design and simulation program to determine the amount of hydrogen that can be produced from each candidate biomass feed. Cost estimations were developed and government programs and incentives were analyzed. Finally, the barriers to the production and commercialization of hydrogen from biomass were determined. The end-use of the hydrogen produced from this system is small PEM fuel cells for automobiles. Pyrolysis of biomass was also considered. Pyrolysis is a reaction in which biomass or coal is partially vaporized by heating. Gasification is a

Economic Analysis. Computer Simulation Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

A multimedia course in economic analysis was developed and used in conjunction with the United States Naval Academy. (See ED 043 790 and ED 043 791 for final reports of the project evaluation and development model.) This volume of the text discusses the simulation of behavioral relationships among variable elements in an economy and presents…

A Technical and Economic Review of Solar Hydrogen Production Technologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilhelm, Erik; Fowler, Michael

2006-01-01

Hydrogen energy systems are being developed to replace fossil fuels-based systems for transportation and stationary application. One of the challenges facing the widespread adoption of hydrogen as an energy vector is the lack of an efficient, economical, and sustainable method of hydrogen production. In the short term, hydrogen produced from…

Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector. Costs of Production, 1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Economic Research Service (USDA), Washington, DC.

This report presents the Economic Research Service's estimates of the costs of producing wheat, feed grains, cotton, and dairy commodities. It includes costs for other farm products that compete with the required commodities, namely rice, peanuts, soybeans, flax, sunflowers, fed cattle, hogs, sheep, and sugar. The report begins by assessing costs…

National Freight Demand Modeling - Bridging the Gap between Freight Flow Statistics and U.S. Economic Patterns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, Shih-Miao; Hwang, Ho-Ling

2007-01-01

This paper describes a development of national freight demand models for 27 industry sectors covered by the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey. It postulates that the national freight demands are consistent with U.S. business patterns. Furthermore, the study hypothesizes that the flow of goods, which make up the national production processes of industries, is coherent with the information described in the 2002 Annual Input-Output Accounts developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The model estimation framework hinges largely on the assumption that a relatively simple relationship exists between freight production/consumption and business patterns for each industry defined by the three-digit Northmore » American Industry Classification System industry codes (NAICS). The national freight demand model for each selected industry sector consists of two models; a freight generation model and a freight attraction model. Thus, a total of 54 simple regression models were estimated under this study. Preliminary results indicated promising freight generation and freight attraction models. Among all models, only four of them had a R2 value lower than 0.70. With additional modeling efforts, these freight demand models could be enhanced to allow transportation analysts to assess regional economic impacts associated with temporary lost of transportation services on U.S. transportation network infrastructures. Using such freight demand models and available U.S. business forecasts, future national freight demands could be forecasted within certain degrees of accuracy. These freight demand models could also enable transportation analysts to further disaggregate the CFS state-level origin-destination tables to county or zip code level.« less

Using a micro-level model to generate a macro-level model of productive successful aging.

PubMed

Johnson, Jessica K M; Sarkisian, Natalia; Williamson, John B

2015-02-01

Aging successfully entails good physical and cognitive health, as well as ongoing participation in social and productive activity. This study hones in on participation in productive activity, a factor that makes an important contribution to successful aging. One conceptual model of productive activity in later life specifies the antecedents and consequences of productivity. This study draws on that micro-level model to develop a corresponding macro-level model and assesses its utility for examining the predictors of and explaining the relationships between one form of productivity (labor force participation rates) and one aspect of well-being (average life expectancy) among males and females. Random effects regression models and path analysis were used to analyze cross-national longitudinal data for 24 high-income Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries at seven time points (1980-2010; 168 observations total). OECD countries with higher labor force participation rates among older workers have higher life expectancies. Labor force participation mediates the effects of gross domestic product per capita on male and female life expectancy, and it mediates the effect of self-employment rate for men, but it acts as a suppressor with regard to the effect of public spending on male and female life expectancy. A well-known micro-level model of productive activity can be fruitfully adapted to account for macro-level cross-national variation in productivity and well-being. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Techno-economic analysis of biodiesel and ethanol co-production from lipid-producing sugarcane: Biodiesel and Ethanol Co-Production from Lipid-Producing Sugarcane

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Haibo; Long, Stephen; Singh, Vijay

Biodiesel production from vegetable oils has progressively increased over the past two decades. However, due to the low amounts of oil produced per hectare from temperate oilseed crops (e.g. soybean), the opportunities for further increasing biodiesel production are limited. Genetically modified lipid-producing sugarcane (lipid-cane) possesses great potential for producing biodiesel as an alternative feedstock because of sugarcane’s much higher productivity compared with soybean. In this study, techno-economic models were developed for biodiesel and ethanol coproduction from lipid-cane, assuming 2, 5, 10, or 20% lipid concentration in the harvested stem (dry mass basis). The models were compared with a conventional soybeanmore » biodiesel process model to assess lipid-cane’s competiveness. In the lipid-cane process model, the extracted lipids were used to produce biodiesel by transesterifi cation, and the remaining sugar was used to produce ethanol by fermentation. The results showed that the biodiesel production cost from lipid-cane decreased from $0.89/L to $0.59 /L as the lipid content increased from 2 to 20%; this cost was lower than that obtained for soybeans ($1.08/L). The ethanol production costs from lipid-cane were between $0.40/L and $0.46/L. The internal rate of return (IRR) for the soybean biodiesel process was 15.0%, and the IRR for the lipid-cane process went from 13.7 to 24.0% as the lipid content increased from 2 to 20%. Because of its high productivity, lipid-cane with 20% lipid content can produce 6700 L of biodiesel from each hectare of land, whereas soybean can only produce approximately 500 L of biodiesel from each hectare of land. This would indicate that continued efforts to achieve lipid-producing sugarcane could make large-scale replacement of fossil-fuel-derived diesel without unrealistic demands on land area.« less

Techno-economic analysis of biodiesel and ethanol co-production from lipid-producing sugarcane: Biodiesel and Ethanol Co-Production from Lipid-Producing Sugarcane

DOE PAGES

Huang, Haibo; Long, Stephen; Singh, Vijay

2016-03-07

Biodiesel production from vegetable oils has progressively increased over the past two decades. However, due to the low amounts of oil produced per hectare from temperate oilseed crops (e.g. soybean), the opportunities for further increasing biodiesel production are limited. Genetically modified lipid-producing sugarcane (lipid-cane) possesses great potential for producing biodiesel as an alternative feedstock because of sugarcane’s much higher productivity compared with soybean. In this study, techno-economic models were developed for biodiesel and ethanol coproduction from lipid-cane, assuming 2, 5, 10, or 20% lipid concentration in the harvested stem (dry mass basis). The models were compared with a conventional soybeanmore » biodiesel process model to assess lipid-cane’s competiveness. In the lipid-cane process model, the extracted lipids were used to produce biodiesel by transesterifi cation, and the remaining sugar was used to produce ethanol by fermentation. The results showed that the biodiesel production cost from lipid-cane decreased from $0.89/L to $0.59 /L as the lipid content increased from 2 to 20%; this cost was lower than that obtained for soybeans ($1.08/L). The ethanol production costs from lipid-cane were between $0.40/L and $0.46/L. The internal rate of return (IRR) for the soybean biodiesel process was 15.0%, and the IRR for the lipid-cane process went from 13.7 to 24.0% as the lipid content increased from 2 to 20%. Because of its high productivity, lipid-cane with 20% lipid content can produce 6700 L of biodiesel from each hectare of land, whereas soybean can only produce approximately 500 L of biodiesel from each hectare of land. This would indicate that continued efforts to achieve lipid-producing sugarcane could make large-scale replacement of fossil-fuel-derived diesel without unrealistic demands on land area.« less

Integrating enzyme fermentation in lignocellulosic ethanol production: life-cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis.

PubMed

Olofsson, Johanna; Barta, Zsolt; Börjesson, Pål; Wallberg, Ola

2017-01-01

Cellulase enzymes have been reported to contribute with a significant share of the total costs and greenhouse gas emissions of lignocellulosic ethanol production today. A potential future alternative to purchasing enzymes from an off-site manufacturer is to integrate enzyme and ethanol production, using microorganisms and part of the lignocellulosic material as feedstock for enzymes. This study modelled two such integrated process designs for ethanol from logging residues from spruce production, and compared it to an off-site case based on existing data regarding purchased enzymes. Greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy balances were studied in a life-cycle assessment, and cost performance in a techno-economic analysis. The base case scenario suggests that greenhouse gas emissions per MJ of ethanol could be significantly lower in the integrated cases than in the off-site case. However, the difference between the integrated and off-site cases is reduced with alternative assumptions regarding enzyme dosage and the environmental impact of the purchased enzymes. The comparison of primary energy balances did not show any significant difference between the cases. The minimum ethanol selling price, to reach break-even costs, was from 0.568 to 0.622 EUR L -1 for the integrated cases, as compared to 0.581 EUR L -1 for the off-site case. An integrated process design could reduce greenhouse gas emissions from lignocellulose-based ethanol production, and the cost of an integrated process could be comparable to purchasing enzymes produced off-site. This study focused on the environmental and economic assessment of an integrated process, and in order to strengthen the comparison to the off-site case, more detailed and updated data regarding industrial off-site enzyme production are especially important.

JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model Fact Sheet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

S. Hendrickson; S.Tegen

2009-12-01

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local(usually state) level. First developed by NREL's Wind Powering America program to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to biofuels,concentrating solar power, coal, and natural gas power plants.

Modelling for Ship Design and Production

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

the physical production process. The product has to be delivered within the chain of order processing . The process “ship production” is defined by the...environment is of increasing importance. Changing product types, complexity and parallelism of order processing , short throughput times and fixed due...specialized and high quality products under manu- facturing conditions which ensure economic and effective order processing . Mapping these main

Optimizing location of manufacturing industries in the context of economic globalization: A bi-level model based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shanhua; Yang, Zhongzhen

2018-07-01

This paper aims to optimize the locations of manufacturing industries in the context of economic globalization by proposing a bi-level programming model which integrates the location optimization model with the traffic assignment model. In the model, the transport network is divided into the subnetworks of raw materials and products respectively. The upper-level model is used to determine the location of industries and the OD matrices of raw materials and products. The lower-level model is used to calculate the attributes of traffic flow under given OD matrices. To solve the model, the genetic algorithm is designed. The proposed method is tested using the Chinese steel industry as an example. The result indicates that the proposed method could help the decision-makers to implement the location decisions for the manufacturing industries effectively.

Economic analysis of fuel ethanol production from winter hulled barley by the EDGE (Enhanced Dry Grind Enzymatic) process.

PubMed

Nghiem, Nhuan P; Ramírez, Edna C; McAloon, Andrew J; Yee, Winnie; Johnston, David B; Hicks, Kevin B

2011-06-01

A process and cost model was developed for fuel ethanol production from winter barley based on the EDGE (Enhanced Dry Grind Enzymatic) process. In this process, in addition to β-glucanases, which are added to reduce the viscosity of the mash, β-glucosidase is also added to completely hydrolyze the oligomers obtained during the hydrolysis of β-glucans to glucose. The model allows determination of capital costs, operating costs, and ethanol production cost for a plant producing 40 million gallons of denatured fuel ethanol annually. A sensitivity study was also performed to examine the effects of β-glucosidase and barley costs on the final ethanol production cost. The results of this study clearly demonstrate the economic benefit of adding β-glucosidase. Lower ethanol production cost was obtained compared to that obtained without β-glucosidase addition in all cases except one where highest β-glucosidase cost allowance and lowest barley cost were used. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic modeling of surgical disease: a measure of public health interventions.

PubMed

Corlew, D Scott

2013-07-01

The measurement of the burden of disease and the interventions that address that burden can be done in various units. Reducing these measures to the common denominator of economic units (i.e., currency) enables comparison with other health entities, interventions, and even other fields. Economic assessment is complex, however, because of the multifactorial components of what constitutes health and what constitutes health interventions, as well as the coupling of those data to economic means. To perform economic modeling in a meaningful manner, it is necessary to: (1) define the health problem to be addressed; (2) define the intervention to be assessed; (3) define a measure of the effect of the health entity with and without the intervention (which includes defining the counterfactual); and (4) determine the appropriate method of converting the health effect to economics. This paper discusses technical aspects of how economic modeling can be done both of disease entities and of interventions. Two examples of economic modeling applied to surgical problems are then given.

Total economic value of wetlands products and services in Uganda.

PubMed

Kakuru, Willy; Turyahabwe, Nelson; Mugisha, Johnny

2013-01-01

Wetlands provide food and non-food products that contribute to income and food security in Uganda. This study determined the economic value of wetland resources and their contribution to food security in the three agroecological zones of Uganda. The values of wetland resources were estimated using primary and secondary data. Market price, Productivity, and Contingent valuation methods were used to estimate the value of wetland resources. The per capita value of fish was approximately US$ 0.49 person⁻¹. Fish spawning was valued at approximately US$ 363,815 year⁻¹, livestock pastures at US$ 4.24 million, domestic water use at US$ 34 million year⁻¹, and the gross annual value added by wetlands to milk production at US$ 1.22 million. Flood control was valued at approximately US$ 1,702,934,880 hectare⁻¹ year⁻¹ and water regulation and recharge at US$ 7,056,360 hectare⁻¹ year⁻¹. Through provision of grass for mulching, wetlands were estimated to contribute to US$ 8.65 million annually. The annual contribution of non-use values was estimated in the range of US$ 7.1 million for water recharge and regulation and to US$ 1.7 billion for flood control. Thus, resource investment for wetlands conservation is economically justified to create incentives for continued benefits.

Process simulation and economic analysis of biodiesel production from waste cooking oil with membrane bioreactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdurakhman, Yuanita Budiman; Putra, Zulfan Adi; Bilad, Muhammad Roil

2017-10-01

Pollution and shortage of clean energy supply are among major problems that are caused by rapid population growth. Due to this growth, waste cooking oil is one of the pollution sources. On the other hand, biodiesel appears to be one of the most promising and feasible energy sources as it emits less toxic pollutants and greenhouse gases than petroleum diesel. Thus, biodiesel production using waste cooking oil offers a two-in-one solution to cater pollution and energy issues. However, the conventional biodiesel production process using homogeneous base catalyst and stirred tank reactor is unable to produce high purity of biodiesel from waste cooking oil. It is due its sensitivity to free fatty acid (FFA) content in waste cooking oil and purification difficulties. Therefore, biodiesel production using heterogeneous acid catalyst in membrane reactor is suggested. The product of this process is fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) or biodiesel with glycerol as by-product. This project is aimed to study techno-economic feasibility of biodiesel production from waste cooking oil via heterogeneous acid catalyst in membrane reactor. Aspen HYSYS is used to accomplish this aim. Several cases, such as considering different residence times and the production of pharmaceutical (USP) grade glycerol, are evaluated and compared. Economic potential of these cases is calculated by considering capital expenditure, utilities cost, product and by-product sales, as well as raw material costs. Waste cooking oil, inorganic pressure-driven membrane and WAl is used as raw material, type of membrane and heterogeneous acid catalyst respectively. Based on literature data, FAME yield formulation is developed and used in the reactor simulation. Simulation results shows that economic potential increases by 30% if pharmaceutical (USP) grade glycerol is produced regardless the residence time of the reactor. In addition, there is no significant effect of residence time on the economic potential.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

Achieving Sustainability in a Semi-Arid Basin in Northwest Mexico through an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Hernandez, A.; Mayer, A. S.

2008-12-01

The hydrologic systems in Northwest Mexico are at risk of over exploitation due to poor management of the water resources and adverse climatic conditions. The purpose of this work is to create and Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model to support future development in the Yaqui River basin, well known by its agricultural productivity, by directing the water management practices toward sustainability. The Yaqui River basin is a semi-arid basin with an area of 72,000 square kilometers and an average precipitation of 527 mm per year. The primary user of water is agriculture followed by domestic use and industry. The water to meet user demands comes from three reservoirs constructed, in series, along the river. The main objective of the integrated simulation-optimization model is to maximize the economic benefit within the basin, subject to physical and environmental constraints. Decision variables include the water allocation to major users and reservoirs as well as aquifer releases. Economic and hydrologic (including the interaction of the surface water and groundwater) simulation models were both included in the integrated model. The surface water model refers to a rainfall-runoff model created, calibrated, and incorporated into a MATLAB code that estimates the monthly storage in the main reservoirs by solving a water balance. The rainfall-runoff model was coupled with a groundwater model of the Yaqui Valley which was previously developed (Addams, 2004). This model includes flow in the main canals and infiltration to the aquifer. The economic benefit of water for some activities such as agricultural use, domestic use, hydropower generation, and environmental value was determined. Sensitivity analysis was explored for those parameters that are not certain such as price elasticities or population growth. Different water allocation schemes were created based on climate change, climate variability, and socio-economic scenarios. Addams L. 2004. Water resource

Economic damages of ozone air pollution to crops using combined air quality and GIS modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlachokostas, Ch.; Nastis, S. A.; Achillas, Ch.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Karmiris, I.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Chourdakis, E.; Banias, G.; Limperi, N.

2010-09-01

This study aims at presenting a combined air quality and GIS modelling methodological approach in order to estimate crop damages from photochemical air pollution, depict their spatial resolution and assess the order of magnitude regarding the corresponding economic damages. The analysis is conducted within the Greater Thessaloniki Area, Greece, a Mediterranean territory which is characterised by high levels of photochemical air pollution and considerable agricultural activity. Ozone concentration fields for 2002 and for specific emission reduction scenarios for the year 2010 were estimated with the Ozone Fine Structure model in the area under consideration. Total economic damage to crops turns out to be significant and estimated to be approximately 43 M€ for the reference year. Production of cotton presents the highest economic loss, which is over 16 M€, followed by table tomato (9 M€), rice (4.2 M€), wheat (4 M€) and oilseed rape (2.8 M€) cultivations. Losses are not spread uniformly among farmers and the major losses occur in areas with valuable ozone-sensitive crops. The results are very useful for highlighting the magnitude of the total economic impacts of photochemical air pollution to the area's agricultural sector and can potentially be used for comparison with studies worldwide. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the economic damage could be of importance for governmental authorities and decision makers since it provides an indicative insight, especially if the economic instruments such as financial incentives or state subsidies to farmers are considered.

JPRS Report, Soviet Union, EKO: Economics & Organization of Industrial Production, No. 11, November 1987.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-22

Orlov, doctor of economic sciences, Institute of Economics and Organization of Industrial Production of the Siberian Branch of the USSR Acad- emy...mined not by his talent, but by the studio in which he works: the larger the studio the greater the possibilities. Justice demands that everyone

On the Market for Principles of Economics Textbooks: Innovation and Product Differentiation--A Response.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schiller, Bradley

1988-01-01

Responding to Stiglitz's article "On the Market for Principles of Economics Textbooks: Innovation and Product Differentiation," Schiller disputes the claim that there is growing dissatisfaction with textbooks, stating that the central issue in the debate is "how best to teach economic principles." Discusses the importance of…

Assessment of free-living nitrogen fixing microorganisms for commercial nitrogen fixation. [economic analysis of ammonia production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stokes, B. O.; Wallace, C. J.

1978-01-01

Ammonia production by Klebsiella pneumoniae is not economical with present strains and improving nitrogen fixation to its theoretical limits in this organism is not sufficient to achieve economic viability. Because the value of both the hydrogen produced by this organism and the methane value of the carbon source required greatly exceed the value of the ammonia formed, ammonia (fixed nitrogen) should be considered the by-product. The production of hydrogen by KLEBSIELLA or other anaerobic nitrogen fixers should receive additional study, because the activity of nitrogenase offers a significant improvement in hydrogen production. The production of fixed nitrogen in the form of cell mass by Azotobacter is also uneconomical and the methane value of the carbon substrate exceeds the value of the nitrogen fixed. Parametric studies indicate that as efficiencies approach the theoretical limits the economics may become competitive. The use of nif-derepressed microorganisms, particularly blue-green algae, may have significant potential for in situ fertilization in the environment.

Cleaner production in the ammonia-soda industry: an ecological and economic study.

PubMed

Kasikowski, T; Buczkowski, R; Lemanowska, E

2004-12-01

Five methods to reduce the negative influence of soda ash factories on the natural environment are presented: 1. obtaining calcium-magnesium phosphates by treating the suspension from raw brine purification with orthophosphoric acid (H(3)PO(4)), 2. production of precipitated chalk from soda processing waste, 3. production of gypsum and semi-brine, 4. desulphurisation of fume gases from the factory power plant, 5. utilization of distiller waste. The tests, accomplished on a laboratory scale, showed the high efficiency of these methods. Economic analysis has proved that only four out of the five presented processes can have a positive financial effect on soda ash factories, as well as being well justified economically. The value of two of the innovations presented is confirmed by their implementation in factories.

Economics of Mass Media Health Campaigns with Health-Related Product Distribution: A Community Guide Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Jacob, Verughese; Chattopadhyay, Sajal K.; Elder, Randy W.; Robinson, Maren N.; Tansil, Kristin A.; Soler, Robin E.; Labre, Magdala P.; Mercer, Shawna L.

2015-01-01

Context The objective of this systematic review was to determine the costs, benefits, and overall economic value of communication campaigns that included mass media and distribution of specified health-related products at reduced price or free of charge. Evidence Acquisition Economic evaluation studies from a literature search from January 1980–December 2009 were screened and abstracted following systematic economic review methods developed by The Community Guide. Data were analyzed in 2011. Evidence Synthesis The economic evidence was grouped and assessed by type of product distributed and health risk addressed. A total of 15 evaluation studies were included in the economic review, involving campaigns promoting the use of child car seats or booster seats, pedometers, condoms, recreational safety helmets, and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). Conclusion Economic merits of the intervention could not be determined for health communication campaigns associated with use of recreational helmets, child car seats, and pedometers, primarily because available economic information and analyses were incomplete. There is some evidence that campaigns with free condom distribution to promote safer sex practices were cost-effective among high-risk populations and the cost per quit achieved in campaigns promoting tobacco cessation with NRT products may translate to a cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) less than $50,000. Many interventions were publicly funded trials or programs, and the failure to properly evaluate their economic cost and benefit is a serious gap in the science and practice of public health. PMID:25145619

Integrating health economics into the product development cycle: a case study of absorbable pins for treating hallux valgus.

PubMed

Vallejo-Torres, Laura; Steuten, Lotte; Parkinson, Bonny; Girling, Alan J; Buxton, Martin J

2011-01-01

The probability of reimbursement is a key factor in determining whether to proceed with or abandon a product during its development. The purpose of this article is to illustrate how the methods of iterative Bayesian economic evaluation proposed in the literature can be incorporated into the development process of new medical devices, adapting them to face the relative scarcity of data and time that characterizes the process. A 3-stage economic evaluation was applied: an early phase in which simple methods allow for a quick prioritization of competing products; a mid-stage in which developers synthesize the data into a decision model, identify the parameters for which more information is most valuable, and explore uncertainty; and a late stage, in which all relevant information is synthesized. A retrospective analysis was conducted of the case study of absorbable pins, compared with metallic fixation, in osteotomy to treat hallux valgus. The results from the early analysis suggest absorbable pins to be cost-effective under the beliefs and assumptions applied. The outputs from the models at the mid-stage analyses show the device to be cost-effective with a high probability. Late-stage analysis synthesizes evidence from a randomized controlled trial and informative priors, which are based on previous evidence. It also suggests that absorbable pins are the most cost-effective strategy, although the uncertainty in the model output increased considerably. This example illustrates how the method proposed allows decisions in the product development cycle to be based on the best knowledge that is available at each stage.

Economic, ecological, and social performance of conventional and organic broiler production in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Bokkers, E A M; de Boer, I J M

2009-09-01

1. In this study, we compared a conventional broiler production system keeping fast growing broilers with an organic broiler production system keeping slow growing broilers in the Netherlands, both managed by one person working a full time year (Full Time Equivalent, FTE). This comparison was based on a quantification of economic, ecological and social indicators. Indicators were quantified using scientific literature and national data sets. 2. The organic system performed better for the economic indicator net farm income per FTE than the conventional system. 3. Regarding ecological indicators, calculations showed a higher on-farm emission of ammonia per kg live weight for the organic system. Moreover, an organic system includes a higher risk for eutrophication per ha due to outdoor access. Emission of green house gasses, use of fossil fuels and use of land required for the production of one kg of live weight is higher for an organic than for a conventional system. This is mainly due to a lower feed conversion in organic production and use of organic feed. 4. The organic system performed better than the conventional system for the social indicators related to animal welfare time spent on walking, footpad lesions, mortality, and sound legs. Regarding the social indicator food safety was found that meat from an organic system contained less antibiotic residues and Salmonella contaminations but more Campylobacter contaminations than meat from a conventional system. 5. Changing from a conventional to an organic broiler production system, therefore, not only affects animal welfare, but also affects economic, ecological and other social issues. In this study, we ran into the situation that some information needed was lacking in literature and quantifications had to be based upon several sources. Therefore, an integrated on-farm assessment is needed, which can be used to develop a broiler production system that is economically profitable, ecologically sound, and

Decision Model for Planning and Scheduling of Seafood Product Considering Traceability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agustin; Mawengkang, Herman; Mathelinea, Devy

2018-01-01

Due to the global challenges, it is necessary for an industrial company to integrate production scheduling and distribution planning, in order to be more efficient and to get more economics advantages. This paper presents seafood production planning and scheduling of a seafood manufacture company which produces simultaneously multi kind of seafood products, located at Aceh Province, Indonesia. The perishability nature of fish highly restricts its storage duration and delivery conditions. Traceability is a tracking requirement to check whether the quality of the product is satisfied. The production and distribution planning problem aims to meet customer demand subject to traceability of the seafood product and other restrictions. The problem is modeled as a mixed integer linear program, and then it is solved using neighborhood search approach.

Making dynamic modeling effective in economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2005-09-01

Mathematics has been extremely effective in physics, but not in economics beyond finance. To establish economics as science we should follow the Galilean method and try to deduce mathematical models of markets from empirical data, as has been done for financial markets. Financial markets are nonstationary. This means that ‘value’ is subjective. Nonstationarity also means that the form of the noise in a market cannot be postulated a priori, but must be deduced from the empirical data. I discuss the essence of complexity in a market as unexpected events, and end with a biologically motivated speculation about market growth.

A microbial model of economic trading and comparative advantage.

PubMed

Enyeart, Peter J; Simpson, Zachary B; Ellington, Andrew D

2015-01-07

The economic theory of comparative advantage postulates that beneficial trading relationships can be arrived at by two self-interested entities producing the same goods as long as they have opposing relative efficiencies in producing those goods. The theory predicts that upon entering trade, in order to maximize consumption both entities will specialize in producing the good they can produce at higher efficiency, that the weaker entity will specialize more completely than the stronger entity, and that both will be able to consume more goods as a result of trade than either would be able to alone. We extend this theory to the realm of unicellular organisms by developing mathematical models of genetic circuits that allow trading of a common good (specifically, signaling molecules) required for growth in bacteria in order to demonstrate comparative advantage interactions. In Conception 1, the experimenter controls production rates via exogenous inducers, allowing exploration of the parameter space of specialization. In Conception 2, the circuits self-regulate via feedback mechanisms. Our models indicate that these genetic circuits can demonstrate comparative advantage, and that cooperation in such a manner is particularly favored under stringent external conditions and when the cost of production is not overly high. Further work could involve implementing the models in living bacteria and searching for naturally occurring cooperative relationships between bacteria that conform to the principles of comparative advantage. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive techno-economic analysis of wastewater-based algal biofuel production: A case study.

PubMed

Xin, Chunhua; Addy, Min M; Zhao, Jinyu; Cheng, Yanling; Cheng, Sibo; Mu, Dongyan; Liu, Yuhuan; Ding, Rijia; Chen, Paul; Ruan, Roger

2016-07-01

Combining algae cultivation and wastewater treatment for biofuel production is considered the feasible way for resource utilization. An updated comprehensive techno-economic analysis method that integrates resources availability into techno-economic analysis was employed to evaluate the wastewater-based algal biofuel production with the consideration of wastewater treatment improvement, greenhouse gases emissions, biofuel production costs, and coproduct utilization. An innovative approach consisting of microalgae cultivation on centrate wastewater, microalgae harvest through flocculation, solar drying of biomass, pyrolysis of biomass to bio-oil, and utilization of co-products, was analyzed and shown to yield profound positive results in comparison with others. The estimated break even selling price of biofuel ($2.23/gallon) is very close to the acceptable level. The approach would have better overall benefits and the internal rate of return would increase up to 18.7% if three critical components, namely cultivation, harvest, and downstream conversion could achieve breakthroughs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldberg, Marshall

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on modelmore » add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.« less

Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamacher, K.

2012-09-01

We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers—modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property—the time horizon of production planning—is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function—thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production.

PubMed

Hamacher, K

2012-09-01

We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers-modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property-the time horizon of production planning-is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function-thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

A Techno-Economic Analysis of Emission Controls on Hydrocarbon Biofuel Production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhatt, Arpit; Zhang, Yimin; Davis, Ryan

Biofuels have the potential to reduce our dependency on petroleum-derived transportation fuels and decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Although the overall GHG emissions from biofuels are expected to be lower when compared to those of petroleum fuels, the process of converting biomass feedstocks into biofuels emits various air pollutants, which may be subject to federal air quality regulation or emission limits. While prior research has evaluated the technical and economic feasibility of biofuel technologies, gaps still exist in understanding the regulatory issues associated with the biorefineries and their economic implications on biofuel production costs (referred to as minimum fuel sellingmore » price (MFSP) in this study). The aim of our research is to evaluate the economic impact of implementing emission reduction technologies at biorefineries and estimate the cost effectiveness of two primary control technologies that may be required for air permitting purposes. We analyze a lignocellulosic sugars-to-hydrocarbon biofuel production pathway developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and implement air emission controls in Aspen Plus to evaluate how they affect the MFSP. Results from this analysis can help inform decisions about biorefinery siting and sizing, as well as mitigate the risks associated with air permitting.« less

Economic feasibility of products from inland West small-diameter timber

Treesearch

Spelter Henry; Rong Wang; Peter Ince

1996-01-01

A large part of the forests located in the Rocky Mountain region of the U.S. West (inland West) is characterized by densely packed, small-diameter stands. The purpose of this study was to examine the economic feasibility of using small-diameter material from this resource to manufacture various wood products: oriented strandboard (OSB), stud lumber, random-length...

Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector. Costs of Production, 1986.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Economic Research Service (USDA), Washington, DC.

This report contains 121 tables that estimate the costs of production of various commodities on United States farms in 1986. The report first assesses costs and returns on a per-unit basis, such as one acre or one animal, under three sections of a budget: cash receipts, cash expenses, and economic costs. The budgets are based on national…

Contribution of economic evaluation to decision making in early phases of product development: a methodological and empirical review.

PubMed

Hartz, Susanne; John, Jürgen

2008-01-01

Economic evaluation as an integral part of health technology assessment is today mostly applied to established technologies. Evaluating healthcare innovations in their early states of development has recently attracted attention. Although it offers several benefits, it also holds methodological challenges. The aim of our study was to investigate the possible contributions of economic evaluation to industry's decision making early in product development and to confront the results with the actual use of early data in economic assessments. We conducted a literature research to detect methodological contributions as well as economic evaluations that used data from early phases of product development. Economic analysis can be beneficially used in early phases of product development for various purposes including early market assessment, R&D portfolio management, and first estimations of pricing and reimbursement scenarios. Analytical tools available for these purposes have been identified. Numerous empirical works were detected, but most do not disclose any concrete decision context and could not be directly matched with the suggested applications. Industry can benefit from starting economic evaluation early in product development in several ways. Empirical evidence suggests that there is still potential left unused.

Sparse High Dimensional Models in Economics

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Lv, Jinchi; Qi, Lei

2010-01-01

This paper reviews the literature on sparse high dimensional models and discusses some applications in economics and finance. Recent developments of theory, methods, and implementations in penalized least squares and penalized likelihood methods are highlighted. These variable selection methods are proved to be effective in high dimensional sparse modeling. The limits of dimensionality that regularization methods can handle, the role of penalty functions, and their statistical properties are detailed. Some recent advances in ultra-high dimensional sparse modeling are also briefly discussed. PMID:22022635

Youth and Work: Toward a Model of Lifetime Economic Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carroll, Stephen J.; Pascal, Anthony H.

As part of an effort to reduce inequalities in economic opportunities confronting the young, this general model of youth behavior and opportunity was developed. Underlying the model are three sets of variables which influence economic opportunities: experience, perceptions, and opportunities. The relations between behavior at a point in time and…

Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

PubMed

Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

2017-12-01

The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research Productivity and Perceived Teaching Effectiveness: A Survey of Economics Faculty.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noser, Thomas C.; And Others

1996-01-01

A national study of university economics faculty (n=343) examined the relationship between self-reported research output and teaching evaluation scores. Findings indicated a very weak relationship between research productivity and classroom performance, but institutional and individual characteristics seemed to explain some differences. Faculty…

The economic production of alcohol fuels from coal-derived synthesis gas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kugler, E.L.; Dadyburjor, D.B.; Yang, R.Y.K.

1995-12-31

The objectives of this project are to discover, (1) study and evaluate novel heterogeneous catalytic systems for the production of oxygenated fuel enhancers from synthesis gas. Specifically, alternative methods of preparing catalysts are to be investigated, and novel catalysts, including sulfur-tolerant ones, are to be pursued. (Task 1); (2) explore, analytically and on the bench scale, novel reactor and process concepts for use in converting syngas to liquid fuel products. (Task 1); (3) simulate by computer the most energy efficient and economically efficient process for converting coal to energy, with primary focus on converting syngas to fuel alcohols. (Task 2);more » (4) develop on the bench scale the best holistic combination of chemistry, catalyst, reactor and total process configuration integrated with the overall coal conversion process to achieve economic optimization for the conversion of syngas to liquid products within the framework of achieving the maximum cost effective transformation of coal to energy equivalents. (Tasks 1 and 2); and (5) evaluate the combustion, emission and performance characteristics of fuel alcohols and blends of alcohols with petroleum-based fuels. (Task 2)« less

The economics of bootstrapping space industries - Development of an analytic computer model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, A. H.; Criswell, D. R.

1982-01-01

A simple economic model of 'bootstrapping' industrial growth in space and on the Moon is presented. An initial space manufacturing facility (SMF) is assumed to consume lunar materials to enlarge the productive capacity in space. After reaching a predetermined throughput, the enlarged SMF is devoted to products which generate revenue continuously in proportion to the accumulated output mass (such as space solar power stations). Present discounted value and physical estimates for the general factors of production (transport, capital efficiency, labor, etc.) are combined to explore optimum growth in terms of maximized discounted revenues. It is found that 'bootstrapping' reduces the fractional cost to a space industry of transport off-Earth, permits more efficient use of a given transport fleet. It is concluded that more attention should be given to structuring 'bootstrapping' scenarios in which 'learning while doing' can be more fully incorporated in program analysis.

Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem

DOE PAGES

Paez, Paul J.; Paez, Thomas L.; Hasselman, Timothy K.

2016-02-19

It is now commonplace for engineers to build mathematical models of the systems they are designing, building, or testing. And, it is nearly universally accepted that phenomenological models of physical systems must be validated prior to use for prediction in consequential scenarios. Yet, there are certain situations in which testing only or no testing and no modeling may be economically viable alternatives to modeling and its associated testing. This paper develops an economic framework within which benefit–cost can be evaluated for modeling and model validation relative to other options. The development is presented in terms of a challenge problem. Asmore » a result, we provide a numerical example that quantifies when modeling, calibration, and validation yield higher benefit–cost than a testing only or no modeling and no testing option.« less

Total Economic Value of Wetlands Products and Services in Uganda

PubMed Central

Kakuru, Willy; Turyahabwe, Nelson; Mugisha, Johnny

2013-01-01

Wetlands provide food and non-food products that contribute to income and food security in Uganda. This study determined the economic value of wetland resources and their contribution to food security in the three agroecological zones of Uganda. The values of wetland resources were estimated using primary and secondary data. Market price, Productivity, and Contingent valuation methods were used to estimate the value of wetland resources. The per capita value of fish was approximately US$ 0.49 person−1. Fish spawning was valued at approximately US$ 363,815 year−1, livestock pastures at US$ 4.24 million, domestic water use at US$ 34 million year−1, and the gross annual value added by wetlands to milk production at US$ 1.22 million. Flood control was valued at approximately US$ 1,702,934,880 hectare−1 year−1 and water regulation and recharge at US$ 7,056,360 hectare−1 year−1. Through provision of grass for mulching, wetlands were estimated to contribute to US$ 8.65 million annually. The annual contribution of non-use values was estimated in the range of US$ 7.1 million for water recharge and regulation and to US$ 1.7 billion for flood control. Thus, resource investment for wetlands conservation is economically justified to create incentives for continued benefits. PMID:24163614

Economic and environmental effects of accelerated tariff liberalization in the forest products sector.

Treesearch

D.J. Brooks; J.A. Ferrante; J. Haverkamp; I. Bowles; W. Lange; D. Darr

2001-01-01

This study assesses the incremental economic and environmental impacts resulting from changes in the timing and scope of forest products tariff reductions as proposed in the Accelerated Tariff Liberalization (ATL) initiative in forest products. This initiative was proposed for agreement among member countries of the World Trade Organization. The analysis of...

What every conservation biologist should know about economic theory.

PubMed

Gowdy, John; Hall, Charles; Klitgaard, Kent; Krall, Lisi

2010-12-01

The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self-referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self-contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self-centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement. © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Macro-economic factors influencing the architectural business model shift in the pharmaceutical industry.

PubMed

Dierks, Raphaela Marie Louisa; Bruyère, Olivier; Reginster, Jean-Yves; Richy, Florent-Frederic

2016-10-01

Technological innovations, new regulations, increasing costs of drug productions and new demands are only few key drivers of a projected alternation in the pharmaceutical industry. The purpose of this review is to understand the macro economic factors responsible for the business model revolution to possess a competitive advantage over market players. Areas covered: Existing literature on macro-economic factors changing the pharmaceutical landscape has been reviewed to present a clear image of the current market environment. Expert commentary: Literature shows that pharmaceutical companies are facing an architectural alteration, however the evidence on the rationale driving the transformation is outstanding. Merger & Acquisitions (M&A) deals and collaborations are headlining the papers. Q1 2016 did show a major slowdown in M&A deals by volume since 2013 (with deal cancellations of Pfizer and Allergan, or the downfall of Valeant), but pharmaceutical analysts remain confident that this shortfall was a consequence of the equity market volatility. It seems likely that the shift to an M&A model will become apparent during the remainder of 2016, with deal announcements of Abbott Laboratories, AbbVie and Sanofi worth USD 45billion showing the appetite of big pharma companies to shift from the fully vertical integrated business model to more horizontal business models.

Economic repercussions of fisheries-induced evolution

PubMed Central

Eikeset, Anne Maria; Richter, Andries; Dunlop, Erin S.; Dieckmann, Ulf; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2013-01-01

Fish stocks experiencing high fishing mortality show a tendency to mature earlier and at a smaller size, which may have a genetic component and therefore long-lasting economic and biological effects. To date, the economic effects of such ecoevolutionary dynamics have not been empirically investigated. Using 70 y of data, we develop a bioeconomic model for Northeast Arctic cod to compare the economic yield in a model in which life-history traits can vary only through phenotypic plasticity with a model in which, in addition, genetic changes can occur. We find that evolutionary changes toward faster growth and earlier maturation occur consistently even if a stock is optimally managed. However, if a stock is managed optimally, the evolutionary changes actually increase economic yield because faster growth and earlier maturation raise the stock’s productivity. The optimal fishing mortality is almost identical for the evolutionary and nonevolutionary model and substantially lower than what it has been historically. Therefore, the costs of ignoring evolution under optimal management regimes are negligible. However, if fishing mortality is as high as it has been historically, evolutionary changes may result in economic losses, but only if the fishery is selecting for medium-sized individuals. Because evolution facilitates growth, the fish are younger and still immature when they are susceptible to getting caught, which outweighs the increase in productivity due to fish spawning at an earlier age. PMID:23836660

A generic bio-economic farm model for environmental and economic assessment of agricultural systems.

PubMed

Janssen, Sander; Louhichi, Kamel; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Zander, Peter; Flichman, Guillermo; Hengsdijk, Huib; Meuter, Eelco; Andersen, Erling; Belhouchette, Hatem; Blanco, Maria; Borkowski, Nina; Heckelei, Thomas; Hecker, Martin; Li, Hongtao; Oude Lansink, Alfons; Stokstad, Grete; Thorne, Peter; van Keulen, Herman; van Ittersum, Martin K

2010-12-01

Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models.

A Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model for Environmental and Economic Assessment of Agricultural Systems

PubMed Central

Louhichi, Kamel; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Zander, Peter; Flichman, Guillermo; Hengsdijk, Huib; Meuter, Eelco; Andersen, Erling; Belhouchette, Hatem; Blanco, Maria; Borkowski, Nina; Heckelei, Thomas; Hecker, Martin; Li, Hongtao; Oude Lansink, Alfons; Stokstad, Grete; Thorne, Peter; van Keulen, Herman; van Ittersum, Martin K.

2010-01-01

Bio-economic farm models are tools to evaluate ex-post or to assess ex-ante the impact of policy and technology change on agriculture, economics and environment. Recently, various BEFMs have been developed, often for one purpose or location, but hardly any of these models are re-used later for other purposes or locations. The Farm System Simulator (FSSIM) provides a generic framework enabling the application of BEFMs under various situations and for different purposes (generating supply response functions and detailed regional or farm type assessments). FSSIM is set up as a component-based framework with components representing farmer objectives, risk, calibration, policies, current activities, alternative activities and different types of activities (e.g., annual and perennial cropping and livestock). The generic nature of FSSIM is evaluated using five criteria by examining its applications. FSSIM has been applied for different climate zones and soil types (criterion 1) and to a range of different farm types (criterion 2) with different specializations, intensities and sizes. In most applications FSSIM has been used to assess the effects of policy changes and in two applications to assess the impact of technological innovations (criterion 3). In the various applications, different data sources, level of detail (e.g., criterion 4) and model configurations have been used. FSSIM has been linked to an economic and several biophysical models (criterion 5). The model is available for applications to other conditions and research issues, and it is open to be further tested and to be extended with new components, indicators or linkages to other models. PMID:21113782

Using Economic Impact Models as an Educational Tool in Community Economic Development Programming: Lessons from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shields, Martin; Deller, Steven C.

2003-01-01

Outlines an educational process designed to help provide communities with economic, social, and political information using community economic impact modeling. Describes the process of community meetings using economic impact, community demographics, and fiscal impact modules and the local preconditions that help make the process successful. (SK)

On the biopsychosocial model: the example of political economic causes of diabetes in the Marshall Islands.

PubMed

Yamada, S; Palafox, N

2001-10-01

Biomedical reductionism, the unwritten theory underlying the practice of medicine, is being supplanted by the biopsychosocial model. The explanatory power of the biopsychosocial model, however, is hampered by an inadequate mechanism to account for the social production of disease. We examine diabetes in the Marshall Islands to explore a conceptual approach that incorporates ecology, history, and political economy into the biopsychosocial model. The use of the Marshall Islands by the United States as testing grounds for nuclear war has led to ecological destruction, population displacement, and economic dependency. The consequence at the biological level has been an epidemic of weight gain, altered metabolism, and diabetes. A political economic perspective reveals that such outcomes are the result of decisions made by those who do not live with these decisions. Such a perspective points the way for social engagement and political work toward justice and health.

An economic value of remote-sensing information—Application to agricultural production and maintaining groundwater quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forney, William M.; Raunikar, Ronald P.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; Mishra, Shruti K.

2012-01-01

Does remote-sensing information provide economic benefits to society, and can a value be assigned to those benefits? Can resource management and policy decisions be better informed by coupling past and present Earth observations with groundwater nitrate measurements? Using an integrated assessment approach, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) applied an established conceptual framework to answer these questions, as well as to estimate the value of information (VOI) for remote-sensing imagery. The approach uses moderate-resolution land-imagery (MRLI) data from the Landsat and Advanced Wide Field Sensor satellites that has been classified by the National Agricultural Statistics Service into the Cropland Data Layer (CDL). Within the constraint of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's public health threshold for potable groundwater resources, the USGS modeled the relation between a population of the CDL's land uses and dynamic nitrate (NO3-) contamination of aquifers in a case study region in northeastern Iowa. Employing various multiscaled, multitemporal geospatial datasets with MRLI to maximize the value of agricultural production, the approach develops and uses multiple environmental science models to address dynamic nitrogen loading and transport at specified distances from specific sites (wells) and at landscape scales (for example, across 35 counties and two aquifers). In addition to the ecosystem service of potable groundwater, this effort focuses on the use of MRLI for the management of the major land uses in the study region-the production of corn and soybeans, which can impact groundwater quality. Derived methods and results include (1) economic and dynamic nitrate-pollution models, (2) probabilities of the survival of groundwater, and (3) a VOI for remote sensing. For the northeastern Iowa study region, the marginal benefit of the MRLI VOI (in 2010 dollars) is $858 million ±$197 million annualized, which corresponds to a net present value of $38

Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Momblanch, Andrea; Connor, Jeffery D.; Crossman, Neville D.; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

2016-07-01

Demand for water is expected to grow in line with global human population growth, but opportunities to augment supply are limited in many places due to resource limits and expected impacts of climate change. Hydro-economic models are often used to evaluate water resources management options, commonly with a goal of understanding how to maximise water use value and reduce conflicts among competing uses. The environment is now an important factor in decision making, which has resulted in its inclusion in hydro-economic models. We reviewed 95 studies applying hydro-economic models, and documented how the environment is represented in them and the methods they use to value environmental costs and benefits. We also sought out key gaps and inconsistencies in the treatment of the environment in hydro-economic models. We found that representation of environmental values of water is patchy in most applications, and there should be systematic consideration of the scope of environmental values to include and how they should be valued. We argue that the ecosystem services framework offers a systematic approach to identify the full range of environmental costs and benefits. The main challenges to more holistic representation of the environment in hydro-economic models are the current limits to understanding of ecological functions which relate physical, ecological and economic values and critical environmental thresholds; and the treatment of uncertainty.

Using life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis in a real options framework to inform the design of algal biofuel production facilities.

PubMed

Kern, Jordan D; Hise, Adam M; Characklis, Greg W; Gerlach, Robin; Viamajala, Sridhar; Gardner, Robert D

2017-02-01

This study investigates the use of "real options analysis" (ROA) to quantify the value of greater product flexibility at algal biofuel production facilities. A deterministic optimization framework is integrated with a combined life cycle assessment/techno-economic analysis model and subjected to an ensemble of 30-year commodity price trajectories. Profits are maximized for two competing plant configurations: 1) one that sells lipid-extracted algae as animal feed only; and 2) one that can sell lipid-extracted algae as feed or use it to recover nutrients and energy, due to an up-front investment in anaerobic digestion/combined heat and power. Results show that added investment in plant flexibility does not result in an improvement in net present value, because current feed meal prices discourage use of lipid-extracted algae for nutrient and energy recovery. However, this study demonstrates that ROA provides many useful insights regarding plant design that cannot be captured via traditional techno-economic modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gross domestic product growth rates as confined Lévy flights: Towards a unifying theory of economic growth rate fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lera, Sandro Claudio; Sornette, Didier

2018-01-01

A model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic levels is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm and sector levels. We describe such fluctuations as independent Lévy-stable fluctuations, varying over multiple orders of magnitude. These fluctuations are aggregated and measured at the macroscopic level in averaged economic output quantities such as GDP. A fundamental question is thereby to what extent individual firm size fluctuations can have a noticeable impact on the overall economy. We argue that this question can be answered by considering the Lévy fluctuations as embedded in a steep confining potential well, ensuring nonlinear mean-reversal behavior, without having to rely on microscopic details of the system. The steepness of the potential well directly controls the extent to which idiosyncratic shocks to firms and sectors are damped at the level of the economy. Additionally, the theory naturally accounts for business cycles, represented in terms of a bimodal economic output distribution and thus connects two so far unrelated fields in economics. By analyzing 200 years of U.S. gross domestic product growth rates, we find that the model is in good agreement with the data.

Gross domestic product growth rates as confined Lévy flights: Towards a unifying theory of economic growth rate fluctuations.

PubMed

Lera, Sandro Claudio; Sornette, Didier

2018-01-01

A model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic levels is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm and sector levels. We describe such fluctuations as independent Lévy-stable fluctuations, varying over multiple orders of magnitude. These fluctuations are aggregated and measured at the macroscopic level in averaged economic output quantities such as GDP. A fundamental question is thereby to what extent individual firm size fluctuations can have a noticeable impact on the overall economy. We argue that this question can be answered by considering the Lévy fluctuations as embedded in a steep confining potential well, ensuring nonlinear mean-reversal behavior, without having to rely on microscopic details of the system. The steepness of the potential well directly controls the extent to which idiosyncratic shocks to firms and sectors are damped at the level of the economy. Additionally, the theory naturally accounts for business cycles, represented in terms of a bimodal economic output distribution and thus connects two so far unrelated fields in economics. By analyzing 200 years of U.S. gross domestic product growth rates, we find that the model is in good agreement with the data.

Audience Production Functions: A New Look at the Economics of Broadcasting.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gandy, Oscar H., Jr.

Because broadcasting is an industry that produces goods and services for sale, any government action which would limit its technical and economic efficiency represents a serious threat. Program violence raises much criticism; at the same time, the industry recognizes its audience-producing value. An audience production function estimate was…

System-level modeling for economic evaluation of geological CO2storage in gas reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Finsterle, Stefan

2006-03-02

One way to reduce the effects of anthropogenic greenhousegases on climate is to inject carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrialsources into deep geological formations such as brine aquifers ordepleted oil or gas reservoirs. Research is being conducted to improveunderstanding of factors affecting particular aspects of geological CO2storage (such as storage performance, storage capacity, and health,safety and environmental (HSE) issues) as well as to lower the cost ofCO2 capture and related processes. However, there has been less emphasisto date on system-level analyses of geological CO2 storage that considergeological, economic, and environmental issues by linking detailedprocess models to representations of engineering components andassociatedmore » economic models. The objective of this study is to develop asystem-level model for geological CO2 storage, including CO2 capture andseparation, compression, pipeline transportation to the storage site, andCO2 injection. Within our system model we are incorporating detailedreservoir simulations of CO2 injection into a gas reservoir and relatedenhanced production of methane. Potential leakage and associatedenvironmental impacts are also considered. The platform for thesystem-level model is GoldSim [GoldSim User's Guide. GoldSim TechnologyGroup; 2006, http://www.goldsim.com]. The application of the system modelfocuses on evaluating the feasibility of carbon sequestration withenhanced gas recovery (CSEGR) in the Rio Vista region of California. Thereservoir simulations are performed using a special module of the TOUGH2simulator, EOS7C, for multicomponent gas mixtures of methane and CO2.Using a system-level modeling approach, the economic benefits of enhancedgas recovery can be directly weighed against the costs and benefits ofCO2 injection.« less

Techno-economic analysis of bioethanol production from rice straw by liquid-state fermentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayata, M. H. M.; Salleh, S. F.; Riayatsyahb, T. M. I.; Aditiyac, H. B.; Mahliaa, T. M. I.; Shamsuddina, A. H.

2016-03-01

Renewable energy is the latest approach of the Malaysian government in an effort to find sustainable alternative energy sources and to fulfill the ever increasing energy demand. Being a country that thrives in the service and agricultural sector, bioethanol production from lignocellulosic biomass presents itself as a promising option. However, the lack of technical practicality and complexity in the operation system hinder it from being economically viable. Hence, this research acquired multiple case studies in order to provide an insight on the process involved and its implication on production as well as to obtain a cost analysis of bioethanol production. The energy input and cost of three main components of the bioethanol production which are the collection, logistics, and pretreatment of rice straw were evaluated extensively. The theoretical bioethanol yield and conversion efficiency obtained were 250 L/t and 60% respectively. The findings concluded that bioethanol production from rice straw is currently not economically feasible in Malaysia’s market due to lack of efficiency in the pretreatment phase and overbearing logistics and pretreatment costs. This work could serve as a reference to future studies of biofuel commercialization in Malaysia.

Assessment of economic and water quality impacts of land use change using a simple bioeconomic model.

PubMed

Bhattarai, Gandhi; Srivastava, Puneet; Marzen, Luke; Hite, Diane; Hatch, Upton

2008-07-01

The objective of this study is to assess the economic and water quality impact of land use change in a small watershed in the Wiregrass region of Alabama. The study compares changes in water quality and revenue from agricultural and timber production due to changes in land use between years 1992 and 2001. The study was completed in two stages. In the first stage, a biophysical model was used to estimate the effect of land use change on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff and sediment deposition in the main channel; in the second stage, farm enterprise budgeting tools were used to estimate the economic returns for the changes in land use condition. Both biophysical and economic results are discussed, and a case for complex optimization to develop a decision support system is presented.

Enhancing economic competiveness of dish Stirling technology through production volume and localization: Case study for Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larchet, Kevin; Guédez, Rafael; Topel, Monika; Gustavsson, Lars; Machirant, Andrew; Hedlund, Maria-Lina; Laumert, Björn

2017-06-01

The present study quantifies the reduction in the levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) and capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a dish Stirling power plant (DSPP) through an increase in localization and unit production volume. Furthermore, the localization value of the plant is examined to determine how much investment is brought into the local economy. Ouarzazate, Morocco, was chosen as the location of the study due to the country's favorable regulatory framework with regards to solar power technologies and its established industry in the concentrating solar power (CSP) field. A detailed techno-economic model of a DSPP was developed using KTH's in-house modelling tool DYESOPT, which allows power plant evaluation by means of technical and economic performance indicators. Results on the basis of LCoE and CAPEX were compared between two different cases of production volume, examining both a minimum and maximum level of localization. Thereafter, the DSPP LCoE and localization value were compared against competing solar technologies to evaluate its competitiveness. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was conducted around key design parameters. The study confirms that the LCoE of a DSPP can be reduced to values similar to solar photovoltaic (PV) and lower than other CSP technologies. Furthermore, the investment in the local economy is far greater when compared to PV and of the same magnitude to other CSP technologies. The competiveness of a DSPP has the potential to increase further when coupled with thermal energy storage (TES), which is currently under development.

Household economic modelsof gill net fishermen at Madura strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Primyastanto, M.

2018-04-01

The purposes of this research was to analyze household economic models of gill net fishermen at Madura strait. 30 families of gillnet fishermenwere used for purposive sampling. Data analysis used descriptive qualitative and quantitative (regression analysis). Quantitative descriptive analysis was used to analyze research and compare to factors that affecting household economic models of gill net fishermen family. Research results showed tha thousehold economic models of gill net fishermen at Madura strait was production value level or fishermen revenue at sea was strongly influenced byp roduction asset production, education level, fuel, and work flow. Work flow rate of fishermen families affected by asset production, non fisheries workflow and number of male workforce. Non fishing income level was strongly influenced by non-fishery business assets, number of family members owned andnon-fishing work flow. Spending levels of gill net fishermen at Madura strait was affected by fishing income, non-fishing income, fishermen wife education and fishermen family members.

Impact of product mix and markets on the economic feasibility of hardwood thinning

Treesearch

John E. Baumgras; Chris B. LeDoux

1989-01-01

Results demonstrate how the economic feasibility of commercial hardwood thinning is impacted by tree diameter, product mix, and primary product markets. These results indicate that multiproduct harvesting can increase revenues by $0.01/ft³ to $0.32/ft³; and that small shifts in price levels or haul distance can postpone commercial thinning...

Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

2018-06-01

Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

JEDI Concentrating Solar Power Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact

Science.gov Websites

Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Concentrating Solar Power Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from concentrating solar power projects and includes default information that can be

A regional scale modeling framework combining biogeochemical model with life cycle and economic analysis for integrated assessment of cropping systems.

PubMed

Tabatabaie, Seyed Mohammad Hossein; Bolte, John P; Murthy, Ganti S

2018-06-01

The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis models using a GIS-based integrated platform, ENVISION. The integrated model enables LCA practitioners to conduct integrated economic analysis and LCA on a regional scale while capturing the variability of soil emissions due to variation in regional factors during production of crops and biofuel feedstocks. In order to evaluate the integrated model, the corn-soybean cropping system in Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana was studied and the integrated model was used to first model the soil emissions and then conduct the LCA as well as economic analysis. The results showed that the variation in soil emissions due to variation in weather is high causing some locations to be carbon sink in some years and source of CO 2 in other years. In order to test the model under different scenarios, two tillage scenarios were defined: 1) conventional tillage (CT) and 2) no tillage (NT) and analyzed with the model. The overall GHG emissions for the corn-soybean cropping system was simulated and results showed that the NT scenario resulted in lower soil GHG emissions compared to CT scenario. Moreover, global warming potential (GWP) of corn ethanol from well to pump varied between 57 and 92gCO 2 -eq./MJ while GWP under the NT system was lower than that of the CT system. The cost break-even point was calculated as $3612.5/ha in a two year corn-soybean cropping system and the results showed that under low and medium prices for corn and soybean most of the farms did not meet the break-even point. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bulk scale production of carbon nanofibers in an economical way

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajarao, Ravindra; Bhat, Badekai Ramachandra

2012-12-01

An economical route for the scalable production of carbon nanofibers (CNFs) on a sodium chloride support has been developed. CNFs have been synthesized by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) method by using metal formate as catalyst precursors at 680°C. Products were characterized by SEM, TEM, Raman spectroscopy and XRD method. By thermal analysis, the purity of the as grown products and purified products were determined. This method avoids calcination and reduction process which was employed in commercial catalysts such as metal oxide or nitrate. The problems such as detrimental effect, environmental and even cost have been overcome by using sodium chloride as support. The yield of CNFs up to 7800 wt.% relative to the nickel catalyst has been achieved in the growth time of 15 min. The advantage of this synthesis technique is the simplicity and use of easily available low cost precursors.

Economic Crisis and Marital Problems in Turkey: Testing the Family Stress Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aytac, Isik A.; Rankin, Bruce H.

2009-01-01

This paper applied the family stress model to the case of Turkey in the wake of the 2001 economic crisis. Using structural equation modeling and a nationally representative urban sample of 711 married women and 490 married men, we tested whether economic hardship and the associated family economic strain on families resulted in greater marital…

A Model of Economics Learning in the High Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walstad, William B.; Soper, John C.

1982-01-01

Reports the results of a study that evaluated the impact of the Developmental Economic Education Project (DEEP) and the International Paper Company (IPCF) awards program for teaching economics on high school student cognitive and affective outcomes. A description of the theoretical model used for the analysis is included. (AM)

Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

2013-12-01

A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2008-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Assessing the production and economic benefits from preventing cows grazing on wet soils in New Zealand.

PubMed

Laurenson, Seth; Houlbrooke, David J; Beukes, Pierre C

2016-10-01

Intensive grazing by cattle on wet pasture can have a negative effect on soil physical quality and future pasture production. On a North Otago dairy farm in New Zealand, experimental plots were monitored for four years to assess whether preventing cow grazing of wet pastures during the milking season would improve soil structure and pasture production compared with unrestricted access to pastures. The DairyNZ Whole Farm Model was used to scale up results to a farm system level and ascertain the cost benefit of deferred grazing management. Soils under deferred grazing management had significantly higher total porosity, yet no significant improvement in macroporosity (values ranging between 0.112 and 0.146 m(3)  m(-3) ). Annual pasture production did not differ between the control and deferred grazing treatments, averaging 17.0 ± 3.8 and 17.9 ± 4.1 t DM ha(-1) year(-1) respectively (P > 0.05). Furthermore, whole farm modelling indicated that farm operating profit was reduced by NZ$1683 ha(-1) year(-1) (four-year average) under deferred grazing management. Deferring dairy cow grazing from wet Pallic soils in North Otago was effective in improving soil structure (measured as total soil porosity), yet did not lead to a significant increase in pasture production. Whole farm modelling indicated no economic benefit of removing cows from wet soils during the milking season. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Modeling Renewable Penertration Using a Network Economic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamont, A.

2001-03-01

This paper evaluates the accuracy of a network economic modeling approach in designing energy systems having renewable and conventional generators. The network approach models the system as a network of processes such as demands, generators, markets, and resources. The model reaches a solution by exchanging prices and quantity information between the nodes of the system. This formulation is very flexible and takes very little time to build and modify models. This paper reports an experiment designing a system with photovoltaic and base and peak fossil generators. The level of PV penetration as a function of its price and the capacities of the fossil generators were determined using the network approach and using an exact, analytic approach. It is found that the two methods agree very closely in terms of the optimal capacities and are nearly identical in terms of annual system costs.

The role of decision analytic modeling in the health economic assessment of spinal intervention.

PubMed

Edwards, Natalie C; Skelly, Andrea C; Ziewacz, John E; Cahill, Kevin; McGirt, Matthew J

2014-10-15

Narrative review. To review the common tenets, strengths, and weaknesses of decision modeling for health economic assessment and to review the use of decision modeling in the spine literature to date. For the majority of spinal interventions, well-designed prospective, randomized, pragmatic cost-effectiveness studies that address the specific decision-in-need are lacking. Decision analytic modeling allows for the estimation of cost-effectiveness based on data available to date. Given the rising demands for proven value in spine care, the use of decision analytic modeling is rapidly increasing by clinicians and policy makers. This narrative review discusses the general components of decision analytic models, how decision analytic models are populated and the trade-offs entailed, makes recommendations for how users of spine intervention decision models might go about appraising the models, and presents an overview of published spine economic models. A proper, integrated, clinical, and economic critical appraisal is necessary in the evaluation of the strength of evidence provided by a modeling evaluation. As is the case with clinical research, all options for collecting health economic or value data are not without their limitations and flaws. There is substantial heterogeneity across the 20 spine intervention health economic modeling studies summarized with respect to study design, models used, reporting, and general quality. There is sparse evidence for populating spine intervention models. Results mostly showed that interventions were cost-effective based on $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. Spine care providers, as partners with their health economic colleagues, have unique clinical expertise and perspectives that are critical to interpret the strengths and weaknesses of health economic models. Health economic models must be critically appraised for both clinical validity and economic quality before altering health care policy, payment strategies, or

Unification and mechanistic detail as drivers of model construction: models of networks in economics and sociology.

PubMed

Kuorikoski, Jaakko; Marchionni, Caterina

2014-12-01

We examine the diversity of strategies of modelling networks in (micro) economics and (analytical) sociology. Field-specific conceptions of what explaining (with) networks amounts to or systematic preference for certain kinds of explanatory factors are not sufficient to account for differences in modelling methodologies. We argue that network models in both sociology and economics are abstract models of network mechanisms and that differences in their modelling strategies derive to a large extent from field-specific conceptions of the way in which a good model should be a general one. Whereas the economics models aim at unification, the sociological models aim at a set of mechanism schemas that are extrapolatable to the extent that the underlying psychological mechanisms are general. These conceptions of generality induce specific biases in mechanistic explanation and are related to different views of when knowledge from different fields should be seen as relevant.

Estimation of parameters of constant elasticity of substitution production functional model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahaboob, B.; Venkateswarlu, B.; Sankar, J. Ravi

2017-11-01

Nonlinear model building has become an increasing important powerful tool in mathematical economics. In recent years the popularity of applications of nonlinear models has dramatically been rising up. Several researchers in econometrics are very often interested in the inferential aspects of nonlinear regression models [6]. The present research study gives a distinct method of estimation of more complicated and highly nonlinear model viz Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production functional model. Henningen et.al [5] proposed three solutions to avoid serious problems when estimating CES functions in 2012 and they are i) removing discontinuities by using the limits of the CES function and its derivative. ii) Circumventing large rounding errors by local linear approximations iii) Handling ill-behaved objective functions by a multi-dimensional grid search. Joel Chongeh et.al [7] discussed the estimation of the impact of capital and labour inputs to the gris output agri-food products using constant elasticity of substitution production function in Tanzanian context. Pol Antras [8] presented new estimates of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour using data from the private sector of the U.S. economy for the period 1948-1998.

A Theoretical Model of Concept Learning in Economics. Studies in Economic Education, No. 10. Revised Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lephardt, Noreen E.; Lephardt, George P.

A paradigm for learning economic concepts based on cognitive development and learning theory is offered as a guideline for teaching and research. Discussion is divided into two sections. The first section establishes the model's theoretical framework, which is based on two propositions. The first of these is that economic knowledge is not a fixed…

An Economic Risk Analysis of Weed Suppressive Rice Cultivars in Rice Production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Weeds are a major constraint to rice production. In the United States, most rice cultivars are not inherently weed-suppressive and require substantial herbicide inputs to achieve agronomic and economic viability. Intensive herbicide application in rice also has many potential drawbacks, resulting in...

Economic modelling with low-cognition agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ormerod, Paul

2006-10-01

The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural rule is postulated to be universal. The concept of bounded rationality relaxes this somewhat, by permitting agents to have access to only limited amounts of information. But agents still optimise subject to their information set and tastes. Empirical work in economics over the past 20 years or so has shown that in general these behavioural postulates lack empirical validity. Instead, agents appear to have limited ability to gather information, and use simple rules of thumb to process the information which they have in order to take decisions. Building theoretical models on these realistic foundations which give better accounts of empirical phenomena than does the SSSM is an important challenge to both economists and econophysicists. Considerable progress has already been made in a short space of time, and examples are given in this paper.

Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: a hydro-economic modeling approach.

PubMed

Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo; Purkey, David R

2013-10-15

Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD's goal of restoring the 'good ecological status' of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute

Modeling the economics of landfilling organic processing waste streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosentrater, Kurt A.

2005-11-01

As manufacturing industries become more cognizant of the ecological effects that their firms have on the surrounding environment, their waste streams are increasingly becoming viewed not only as materials in need of disposal, but also as resources that can be reused, recycled, or reprocessed into valuable products. Within the food processing sector are many examples of various liquid, sludge, and solid biological and organic waste streams that require remediation. Alternative disposal methods for food and other bio-organic manufacturing waste streams are increasingly being investigated. Direct shipping, blending, extrusion, pelleting, and drying are commonly used to produce finished human food, animal feed, industrial products, and components ready for further manufacture. Landfilling, the traditional approach to waste remediation, however, should not be dismissed entirely. It does provide a baseline to which all other recycling and reprocessing options should be compared. This paper discusses the implementation of a computer model designed to examine the economics of landfilling bio-organic processing waste streams. Not only are these results applicable to food processing operations, but any industrial or manufacturing firm would benefit from examining the trends discussed here.

An Idealized Cognitive Model Analysis of Metaphors in American Economic News Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Yang

2018-03-01

On the basis of the theoretical framework of Lakoff’s Conceptual Metaphor, the paper researches into the cognitive model of conceptual metaphors in American Economic News Reports. Moreover, the paper tries to analyze economic discourse by the application of Idealized Cognitive Model of its metaphorical thinking combined with cultural model and reflect the ideology of the media. It aims to help English learners ponder the implied meaning the economic news reports conveyed and take a new look at metaphors between the lines.

Techno-economical study of biogas production improved by steam explosion pretreatment.

PubMed

Shafiei, Marzieh; Kabir, Maryam M; Zilouei, Hamid; Sárvári Horváth, Ilona; Karimi, Keikhosro

2013-11-01

Economic feasibility of steam explosion pretreatment for improvement of biogas production from wheat straw and paper tube residuals was investigated. The process was simulated by Aspen plus ®, and the economical feasibility of five different plant capacities was studied by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Total project investment of a plant using paper tube residuals or wheat straw was 63.9 or 61.8 million Euros, respectively. The manufacturing cost of raw biogas for these two feedstocks was calculated to 0.36 or 0.48 €/m(3) of methane, respectively. Applying steam explosion pretreatment resulted in 13% higher total capital investment while significantly improved the economy of the biogas plant and decreased the manufacturing cost of methane by 36%. The sensitivity analysis showed that 5% improvement in the methane yield and 20% decrease in the raw material price resulted in 5.5% and 8% decrease in the manufacturing cost of methane, respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Sustainable Bioenergy Feedstock Production in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraxner, Florian; Leduc, Sylvain; Kindermann, Georg; Fuss, Sabine; Pietsch, Stephan; Lakyda, Ivan; Serrano Leon, Hernan; Shchepashchenko, Dmitry; Shvidenko, Anatoly

2016-04-01

Sustainability of bioenergy is often indicated by the neutrality of emissions at the conversion site while the feedstock production site is assumed to be carbon neutral. Recent research shows that sustainability of bioenergy systems starts with feedstock management. Even if sustainable forest management is applied, different management types can impact ecosystem services substantially. This study examines different sustainable forest management systems together with an optimal planning of green-field bioenergy plants in the Alps. Two models - the biophysical global forest model (G4M) and a techno-economic engineering model for optimizing renewable energy systems (BeWhere) are implemented. G4M is applied in a forward looking manner in order to provide information on the forest under different management scenarios: (1) managing the forest for maximizing the carbon sequestration; or (2) managing the forest for maximizing the harvestable wood amount for bioenergy production. The results from the forest modelling are then picked up by the engineering model BeWhere, which optimizes the bioenergy production in terms of energy demand (power and heat demand by population) and supply (wood harvesting potentials), feedstock harvesting and transport costs, the location and capacity of the bioenergy plant as well as the energy distribution logistics with respect to heat and electricity (e.g. considering existing grids for electricity or district heating etc.). First results highlight the importance of considering ecosystem services under different scenarios and in a geographically explicit manner. While aiming at producing the same amount of bioenergy under both forest management scenarios, it turns out that in scenario (1) a substantially larger area (distributed across the Alps) will need to be used for producing (and harvesting) the necessary amount of feedstock than under scenario (2). This result clearly shows that scenario (2) has to be seen as an "intensification

Economic and environmental assessment of propionic acid production by fermentation using different renewable raw materials.

PubMed

Tufvesson, Pär; Ekman, Anna; Sardari, Roya R R; Engdahl, Kristina; Tufvesson, Linda

2013-12-01

Production of propionic acid by fermentation of glycerol as a renewable resource has been suggested as a means for developing an environmentally-friendly route for this commodity chemical. However, in order to quantify the environmental benefits, life cycle assessment of the production, including raw materials, fermentation, upstream and downstream processing is required. The economic viability of the process also needs to be analysed to make sure that any environmental savings can be realised. In this study an environmental and economic assessment from cradle-to-gate has been conducted. The study highlights the need for a highly efficient bioprocess in terms of product titre (more than 100g/L and productivity more than 2g/(L · h)) in order to be sustainable. The importance of the raw materials and energy production for operating the process to minimize emissions of greenhouse gases is also shown. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.

This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report hasmore » been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.« less

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2007-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Rethinking the causes of deforestation: lessons from economic models.

PubMed

Angelsen, A; Kaimowitz, D

1999-02-01

Concern is rising over the deleterious effects of tropical deforestation. For example, the loss of forest cover influences the climate and reduces biodiversity, while reduced timber supplies, siltation, flooding, and soil degradation affect economic activity and threaten the livelihoods and cultural integrity of forest-dependent people. Such concerns have led economists to expand their efforts to model why, where, and to what extent forests are being converted to other land uses. This synthesis of the results of more than 140 economic models analyzing the causes of tropical deforestation brings into question many conventional hypotheses upon deforestation. More roads, higher agricultural prices, lower wages, and a shortage of off-farm employment generally lead to more deforestation. However, it is not known how technical change, agricultural input prices, household income levels, and tenure security affect deforestation. The role of macroeconomic factors such as population growth, poverty reduction, national income, economic growth, and foreign debt is also unclear. The authors nonetheless determine through their review that policy reforms included in current economic liberalization and adjustment efforts may increase pressure upon forests.

Techno-economic analysis of horseradish peroxidase production using a transient expression system in Nicotiana benthamiana.

PubMed

Walwyn, David Richard; Huddy, Suzanne M; Rybicki, Edward P

2015-01-01

Despite the advantages of plant-based transient expression systems relative to microbial or mammalian cell systems, the commercial production of recombinant proteins using plants has not yet been achieved to any significant extent. One of the challenges has been the lack of published data on the costs of manufacture for products other than biopharmaceuticals. In this study, we report on the techno-economic analysis of the production of a standard commercial enzyme, namely, horseradish peroxidase (HRP), using a transient expression system in Nicotiana benthamiana. Based on the proven plant yield of 240 mg HRP/kg biomass, a biomass productivity of 15-kg biomass/m(2)/year and a process yield of 54 % (mg HRP product/mg HRP in biomass), it is apparent that HRP can be manufactured economically via transient expression in plants in a large-scale facility (>5 kg HRP/year). At this level, the process is competitive versus the existing technology (extraction of the enzyme from horseradish), and the product is of comparable or improved activity, containing only the preferred isoenzyme C. Production scale, protein yield and biomass productivity are found to be the most important determinants of overall viability.

Replicating Health Economic Models: Firm Foundations or a House of Cards?

PubMed

Bermejo, Inigo; Tappenden, Paul; Youn, Ji-Hee

2017-11-01

Health economic evaluation is a framework for the comparative analysis of the incremental health gains and costs associated with competing decision alternatives. The process of developing health economic models is usually complex, financially expensive and time-consuming. For these reasons, model development is sometimes based on previous model-based analyses; this endeavour is usually referred to as model replication. Such model replication activity may involve the comprehensive reproduction of an existing model or 'borrowing' all or part of a previously developed model structure. Generally speaking, the replication of an existing model may require substantially less effort than developing a new de novo model by bypassing, or undertaking in only a perfunctory manner, certain aspects of model development such as the development of a complete conceptual model and/or comprehensive literature searching for model parameters. A further motivation for model replication may be to draw on the credibility or prestige of previous analyses that have been published and/or used to inform decision making. The acceptability and appropriateness of replicating models depends on the decision-making context: there exists a trade-off between the 'savings' afforded by model replication and the potential 'costs' associated with reduced model credibility due to the omission of certain stages of model development. This paper provides an overview of the different levels of, and motivations for, replicating health economic models, and discusses the advantages, disadvantages and caveats associated with this type of modelling activity. Irrespective of whether replicated models should be considered appropriate or not, complete replicability is generally accepted as a desirable property of health economic models, as reflected in critical appraisal checklists and good practice guidelines. To this end, the feasibility of comprehensive model replication is explored empirically across a small

Process modeling and supply chain design for advanced biofuel production based on bio-oil gasification