Extraterrestrial processing and manufacturing of large space systems, volume 1, chapters 1-6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. H.; Smith, D. B. S.

1979-01-01

Space program scenarios for production of large space structures from lunar materials are defined. The concept of the space manufacturing facility (SMF) is presented. The manufacturing processes and equipment for the SMF are defined and the conceptual layouts are described for the production of solar cells and arrays, structures and joints, conduits, waveguides, RF equipment radiators, wire cables, and converters. A 'reference' SMF was designed and its operation requirements are described.

Bioenergy production from perennial energy crops: a consequential LCA of 12 bioenergy scenarios including land use changes.

PubMed

Tonini, Davide; Hamelin, Lorie; Wenzel, Henrik; Astrup, Thomas

2012-12-18

In the endeavor of optimizing the sustainability of bioenergy production in Denmark, this consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) evaluated the environmental impacts associated with the production of heat and electricity from one hectare of Danish arable land cultivated with three perennial crops: ryegrass (Lolium perenne), willow (Salix viminalis) and Miscanthus giganteus. For each, four conversion pathways were assessed against a fossil fuel reference: (I) anaerobic co-digestion with manure, (II) gasification, (III) combustion in small-to-medium scale biomass combined heat and power (CHP) plants and IV) co-firing in large scale coal-fired CHP plants. Soil carbon changes, direct and indirect land use changes as well as uncertainty analysis (sensitivity, MonteCarlo) were included in the LCA. Results showed that global warming was the bottleneck impact, where only two scenarios, namely willow and Miscanthus co-firing, allowed for an improvement as compared with the reference (-82 and -45 t CO₂-eq. ha⁻¹, respectively). The indirect land use changes impact was quantified as 310 ± 170 t CO₂-eq. ha⁻¹, representing a paramount average of 41% of the induced greenhouse gas emissions. The uncertainty analysis confirmed the results robustness and highlighted the indirect land use changes uncertainty as the only uncertainty that can significantly change the outcome of the LCA results.

Logistics, Costs, and GHG Impacts of Utility Scale Cofiring with 20% Biomass

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boardman, Richard D.; Cafferty, Kara G.; Nichol, Corrie

This report presents the results of an evaluation of utility-scale biomass cofiring in large pulverized coal power plants. The purpose of this evaluation is to assess the cost and greenhouse gas reduction benefits of substituting relatively high volumes of biomass in coal. Two scenarios for cofiring up to 20% biomass with coal (on a lower heating value basis) are presented; (1) woody biomass in central Alabama where Southern Pine is currently produced for the wood products and paper industries, and (2) purpose-grown switchgrass in the Ohio River Valley. These examples are representative of regions where renewable biomass growth rates aremore » high in correspondence with major U.S. heartland power production. While these scenarios may provide a realistic reference for comparing the relative benefits of using a high volume of biomass for power production, this evaluation is not intended to be an analysis of policies concerning renewable portfolio standards or the optimal use of biomass for energy production in the U.S.« less

Water Quantity and Water Quality Impacts of Intensive Woody Biomass Feedstock Production in the Southeastern US.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bitew, M. M.; Jackson, C. R.; Vache, K. B.; Griffiths, N.; Starr, G.; McDonnell, J.; Rau, B.; Younger, S. E.; Fouts, K.

2016-12-01

Intensively managed loblolly pine is a candidate species for biofuel feedstock production in the southeastern Coastal Plain of the United States. However, the water quantity and quality effects of high intensity, short-rotation silviculture are largely unknown. Here we evaluate the potential hydrologic and water quality impacts of biofuel-induced land use changes based on model scenarios developed using existing forest BMPs and industry wide experiences. We quantified the effect of bio-energy production scenarios on each of water the balance components by applying an integrated physically based distributed watershed modeling system, and multi-objective assessment functions that accurately describes the flow regimes, water quality, and isotopic observations from three experimental headwater watersheds of Fourmile Creek at Savannah River Site, SC. The model incorporates optimized travel times of groundwater flowpaths and flow control processes in the riparian region allowing water quality analysis of groundwater dominated watershed systems. We compared five different short rotation pine management scenarios ranging from 35 year (low intensity) to 10 year (high intensity) rotations and a mixture of forestry and agriculture/pasture production practices. Simulation results, based on long-term climate records, revealed that complete conversion to short-rotation woody crops would have a negligible effect on water budget components; <2% decrease in streamflow, <1.5% increase in actual evapotranspiration, an average 0.5 m fall in the groundwater table, and no change in subsurface flow due to biofuel production. Simulation results of mixed 50% agriculture and pasture and 50% short-rotation woody crops showed the largest deviation in water budget components compared to the reference condition. Analysis of extreme stream flows showed that the largest effect was observed in the low intensity mixed land use scenario. The smallest effect was in the low intensity biomass production scenario with a 0.5% increase in a 100 year return event.

Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

2017-12-01

Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit temperature increase and pH and dissolved oxygen decrease relative to the reference scenario without cumulative CO2 emissions overshoot. Furthermore, our results show that the higher the level of overshoot, the lower the reversibility of changes in the marine environment.

Green cheese: partial life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and energy intensity of integrated dairy production and bioenergy systems.

PubMed

Aguirre-Villegas, H A; Passos-Fonseca, T H; Reinemann, D J; Armentano, L E; Wattiaux, M A; Cabrera, V E; Norman, J M; Larson, R

2015-03-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of integrating dairy and bioenergy systems on land use, net energy intensity (NEI), and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A reference dairy farm system representative of Wisconsin was compared with a system that produces dairy and bioenergy products. This integrated system investigates the effects at the farm level when the cow diet and manure management practices are varied. The diets evaluated were supplemented with varying amounts of dry distillers grains with solubles and soybean meal and were balanced with different types of forages. The manure-management scenarios included manure land application, which is the most common manure disposal method in Wisconsin, and manure anaerobic digestion (AD) to produce biogas. A partial life cycle assessment from cradle to farm gate was conducted, where the system boundaries were expanded to include the production of biofuels in the analysis and the environmental burdens between milk and bioenergy products were partitioned by system expansion. Milk was considered the primary product and the functional unit, with ethanol, biodiesel, and biogas considered co-products. The production of the co-products was scaled according to milk production to meet the dietary requirements of each selected dairy ration. Results indicated that land use was 1.6 m2, NEI was 3.86 MJ, and GHG emissions were 1.02 kg of CO2-equivalents per kilogram of fat- and protein-corrected milk (FPCM) for the reference system. Within the integrated dairy and bioenergy system, diet scenarios that maximize dry distillers grains with solubles and implement AD had the largest reduction of GHG emissions and NEI, but the greatest increase in land use compared with the reference system. Average land use ranged from 1.68 to 2.01 m2/kg of FPCM; NEI ranged from -5.62 to -0.73 MJ/kg of FPCM; and GHG emissions ranged from 0.63 to 0.77 kg of CO2-equivalents/kg of FPCM. The AD contributed 65% of the NEI and 77% of the GHG emission reductions. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States.

PubMed

Trail, Marcus A; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P; Liu, Peng; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Hu, Yongtao; Rudokas, Jason R; Miller, Paul J; Nenes, Athanasios; Russell, Armistead G

2015-04-21

Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.

Application of the modified chi-square ratio statistic in a stepwise procedure for cascade impactor equivalence testing.

PubMed

Weber, Benjamin; Lee, Sau L; Delvadia, Renishkumar; Lionberger, Robert; Li, Bing V; Tsong, Yi; Hochhaus, Guenther

2015-03-01

Equivalence testing of aerodynamic particle size distribution (APSD) through multi-stage cascade impactors (CIs) is important for establishing bioequivalence of orally inhaled drug products. Recent work demonstrated that the median of the modified chi-square ratio statistic (MmCSRS) is a promising metric for APSD equivalence testing of test (T) and reference (R) products as it can be applied to a reduced number of CI sites that are more relevant for lung deposition. This metric is also less sensitive to the increased variability often observed for low-deposition sites. A method to establish critical values for the MmCSRS is described here. This method considers the variability of the R product by employing a reference variance scaling approach that allows definition of critical values as a function of the observed variability of the R product. A stepwise CI equivalence test is proposed that integrates the MmCSRS as a method for comparing the relative shapes of CI profiles and incorporates statistical tests for assessing equivalence of single actuation content and impactor sized mass. This stepwise CI equivalence test was applied to 55 published CI profile scenarios, which were classified as equivalent or inequivalent by members of the Product Quality Research Institute working group (PQRI WG). The results of the stepwise CI equivalence test using a 25% difference in MmCSRS as an acceptance criterion provided the best matching with those of the PQRI WG as decisions of both methods agreed in 75% of the 55 CI profile scenarios.

Colorful Twisted Top Partners and Partnerium at the LHC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kats, Yevgeny; McCullough, Matthew; Perez, Gilad; Soreq, Yotam; Thaler, Jesse

2017-06-01

In scenarios that stabilize the electroweak scale, the top quark is typically accompanied by partner particles. In this work, we demonstrate how extended stabilizing symmetries can yield scalar or fermionic top partners that transform as ordinary color triplets but carry exotic electric charges. We refer to these scenarios as "hypertwisted" since they involve modifications to hypercharge in the top sector. As proofs of principle, we construct two hypertwisted scenarios: a supersymmetric construction with spin-0 top partners, and a composite Higgs construction with spin-1/2 top partners. In both cases, the top partners are still phenomenologically compatible with the mass range motivated by weak-scale naturalness. The phenomenology of hypertwisted scenarios is diverse, since the lifetimes and decay modes of the top partners are model dependent. The novel coupling structure opens up search channels that do not typically arise in top-partner scenarios, such as pair production of top-plus-jet resonances. Furthermore, hypertwisted top partners are typically sufficiently long lived to form "top-partnerium" bound states that decay predominantly via annihilation, motivating searches for rare narrow resonances with diboson decay modes.

The role of microalgae as biodiesel feedstock in a tropical setting: Economics, agro-energy competitiveness, and potential impacts on regional agricultural feedstock production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boll, Matias G.

The objective of this study is to obtain a realistic evaluation of the potential role of microalgae as a biodiesel feedstock in a tropical setting. First, microalgae economics are estimated, including the detailed design of a 400 ha microalgae open pond production farm together with the microalgae biomass and crude oil production costs calculations. Sensitivity analysis and a stochastic evaluation of the microalgae venture chances for profit are also included. Next, microalgae potential for biodiesel production is compared to traditional oil crops such as soybeans and African palm. This comparison is performed using the Northeast Region (NER) of Brazil as background. Six potential biodiesel feedstock sources produced in the NER and microalgae are compared considering selected environmental, economic and social sustainability indicators. Finally, in the third chapter, the study proposes a cropland allocation model for the NER. The model aims to offer insights to the decision maker concerning biofuel development strategies and their impact on regional agricultural feedstock production. In the model, cropland allocation among three agriculture feedstock sectors, namely staple food, commodity export and biofuel is optimized through the use of the multiple objective technique referred to as compromise programming (CP). Our results indicate a projected microalgae total production cost of R 78,359 ha-1 (US43,533), which has a breakdown as follows: R 34,133 ha-1 (US18,963) for operating costs and R 44,226 ha-1 (US24,570) for overhead (ownership) costs. Our stochastic analysis indicates that microalgae production under the conditions assumed in the baseline scenario of this study has a 0% chance to present a positive NPV for a microalgae crude oil price of R 1.86. This price corresponds to an international oil price around US 77 bbl-1. To obtain a reasonable investment return (IRR = 12%) from the microalgae farm, an international oil price as high as US 461 bbl-1 is required. Despite the advantage of using about 14 times less cropland area (0.13 ha boe-1 ), microalgae presented significant disadvantages as compared to some of the traditional oil crops. Among these is the significant amount of N fertilizer and water demanded by microalgae production, namely 205 kg and 4,990 boe -1, about 132% and 30% higher than the second highest value among the crops compared in this study, respectively. Optimized CP scenarios expanded annual cropland allocation to 14.58 million ha in the NER, year 2017, compared to 11.04 and 12.81 million ha in current (2007) and baseline (2017) scenarios, respectively. In comparison to the baseline scenario, cropland expansions allied to the shift of the commodities export dedicated cropland to the biofuel production sector in CP scenarios significantly increased the NER fuel autonomy (95%) and reduced its R 5,126 million reais deficit baseline comprehensive feedstock trade balance by 79%. Contrary to the concerns usually referred to biofuel development, our model indicates that in the NER case, it is the commodity export, rather than the staple food agriculture feedstock production sector, that is mostly affected by the biofuel cropland allocation demand. When compared to traditional oil crops, microalgae-based biodiesel scenarios could not significantly improve regional staple food autonomy, increasing this objective by 1% only. The NER fuel autonomy, in its turn, is positively impacted in the microalgae scenarios, but the increment as compared to the traditional oil crops is rather small, namely 2% and 7% in the B5 and B10 levels, respectively. These results indicate that the potential advantages expected for the microalgae-based biodiesel introduction did not materialize for the NER. It is concluded that the adoption of microalgae-based biodiesel is not an interesting biofuel alternative for the NER of Brazil for the next ten years.

Requirements for plug and play information infrastructure frameworks and architectures to enable virtual enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolton, Richard W.; Dewey, Allen; Horstmann, Paul W.; Laurentiev, John

1997-01-01

This paper examines the role virtual enterprises will have in supporting future business engagements and resulting technology requirements. Two representative end-user scenarios are proposed that define the requirements for 'plug-and-play' information infrastructure frameworks and architectures necessary to enable 'virtual enterprises' in US manufacturing industries. The scenarios provide a high- level 'needs analysis' for identifying key technologies, defining a reference architecture, and developing compliant reference implementations. Virtual enterprises are short- term consortia or alliances of companies formed to address fast-changing opportunities. Members of a virtual enterprise carry out their tasks as if they all worked for a single organization under 'one roof', using 'plug-and-play' information infrastructure frameworks and architectures to access and manage all information needed to support the product cycle. 'Plug-and-play' information infrastructure frameworks and architectures are required to enhance collaboration between companies corking together on different aspects of a manufacturing process. This new form of collaborative computing will decrease cycle-time and increase responsiveness to change.

Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2018-04-01

Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

Emotion recognition bias for contempt and anger in body dysmorphic disorder.

PubMed

Buhlmann, Ulrike; Etcoff, Nancy L; Wilhelm, Sabine

2006-03-01

Body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) patients are preoccupied with imagined defects or flaws in appearance (e.g., size or shape of nose). They are afraid of negative evaluations by others and often suffer significant morbidity including hospitalization and suicide attempts. Many patients experience ideas of reference, e.g., they often believe others take special notice of their "flaw". Facial expressions play an important role in conveying negative or positive feelings, and sympathy or rejection. In this study, we investigated emotion recognition deficits in 18 BDD patients and 18 healthy controls. Participants were presented with two questionnaires accompanying facial photographs. One questionnaire included self-referent scenarios ("Imagine that the bank teller is looking at you. What is his facial expression like?"), whereas the other one included other-referent scenarios ("Imagine that the bank teller is looking at a friend of yours," etc.), and participants were asked to identify the corresponding emotion (e.g., anger, contempt, neutral, or surprise). Overall, BDD patients, relative to controls, had difficulty identifying emotional expressions in self-referent scenarios. They misinterpreted more expressions as contemptuous and angry in self-referent scenarios than did controls. However, they did not have significantly more difficulties identifying emotional expressions in other-referent scenarios than controls. Thus, poor insight and ideas of reference, common in BDD, might be related to a bias for misinterpreting other people's emotional expressions as negative. Perceiving others as rejecting might reinforce concerns about one's personal perceived ugliness and social desirability.

Comparative Analysis of the Possibility to Use Urban Organic Waste for Compost or Biogas Productions. Application to Rosario City, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piacentini, Rubén D.; Vega, Marcelo

2017-10-01

The city waste is one of the main urban problems to be solved, since they generate large impacts on the environment, like use of land, contamination of the soil, water and air, and human diseases, among others. In Rosario city, placed in the Argentina Humid Pampa and having about 1 million inhabitants, the Municipality is developing different strategies in order to reduce the waste impact (295 000 Tons in 2016). One of the most important actions was the construction of the Bella Vista compost plant in 2012 (within the largest in South America). In the present work we analysed the possibility to use urban organic waste (that for Rosario city represents about 58% of the total waste in the last years) for: a) compost production and b) biogas production, with compost as a by-product. We determined the produced compost and biogas and the corresponding greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, considering three possible scenarios: A reference scenario (Sr ) where 24 100 Tons of urban solid waste per year is transported from the city houses and buildings to a transfer landfill and then to the a final disposal landfill; a scenario number one (S1 ) in which the same fraction of waste is transported to the Compost plant and transformed to compost and a scenario number two (S2 ) where the same quantity of waste is used for the production of biogas (and compost). Applying the IPCC 2006 Model, we compare the results of the annual GHG emissions, in order to select the best alternative: to expand the Compost plant or to build a Biogas (plus compost) plant. We also discussed the extension of the present analysis to the situation in which all the capability of the Compost plant (25% of the 2016 waste production of the city) is used and the impact these plants are having for a better quality of life of persons involved in the informal waste activity.

An integrated assessment of the potential of agricultural and forestry residues for energy production in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Ji; Zhang, Aiping; Lam, Shu Kee

Biomass has been widely recognized as an important energy source with high potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing environmental pollution. In this study, we employ the Global Change Assessment Model to estimate the potential of agricultural and forestry residue biomass for energy production in China. Potential availability of residue biomass as an energy source was analyzed for the 21st century under different climate policy scenarios. Currently, the amount of total annual residue biomass, averaged over 2003-2007, is around 15519PJ in China, consisting of 10818PJ from agriculture residues (70%) and 4701PJ forestry residues (30%). We estimate that 12693PJ ofmore » the total biomass is available for energy production, with 66% derived from agricultural residue and 34% from forestry residue. Most of the available residue is from south central China (3347PJ), east China (2862PJ) and south-west China (2229PJ), which combined exceeds 66% of the total national biomass. Under the reference scenario without carbon tax, the potential availability of residue biomass for energy production is projected to be 3380PJ by 2050 and 4108PJ by 2095, respectively. When carbon tax is imposed, biomass availability increases substantially. For the CCS 450ppm scenario, availability of biomass increases to 9002PJ (2050) and 11524PJ (2095), respectively. For the 450ppm scenario without CCS, 9183 (2050) and 11150PJ (2095) residue biomass, respectively, is projected to be available. Moreover, the implementation of CCS will have a little impact on the supply of residue biomass after 2035. Our results suggest that residue biomass has the potential to be an important component in China's sustainable energy production portfolio. As a low carbon emission energy source, climate change policies that involve carbon tariff and CCS technology promote the use of residue biomass for energy production in a low carbon-constrained world.« less

Economic implications of mercury exposure in the context of the global mercury treaty: Hair mercury levels and estimated lost economic productivity in selected developing countries.

PubMed

Trasande, Leonardo; DiGangi, Joseph; Evers, David C; Petrlik, Jindrich; Buck, David G; Šamánek, Jan; Beeler, Bjorn; Turnquist, Madeline A; Regan, Kevin

2016-12-01

Several developing countries have limited or no information about exposures near anthropogenic mercury sources and no studies have quantified costs of mercury pollution or economic benefits to mercury pollution prevention in these countries. In this study, we present data on mercury concentrations in human hair from subpopulations in developing countries most likely to benefit from the implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. These data are then used to estimate economic costs of mercury exposure in these communities. Hair samples were collected from sites located in 15 countries. We used a linear dose-response relationship that previously identified a 0.18 IQ point decrement per part per million (ppm) increase in hair mercury, and modeled a base case scenario assuming a reference level of 1 ppm, and a second scenario assuming no reference level. We then estimated the corresponding increases in intellectual disability and lost Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). A total of 236 participants provided hair samples for analysis, with an estimated population at risk of mercury exposure near the 15 sites of 11,302,582. Average mercury levels were in the range of 0.48 ppm-4.60 ppm, and 61% of all participants had hair mercury concentrations greater than 1 ppm, the level that approximately corresponds to the USA EPA reference dose. An additional 1310 cases of intellectual disability attributable to mercury exposure were identified annually (4110 assuming no reference level), resulting in 16,501 lost DALYs (51,809 assuming no reference level). A total of $77.4 million in lost economic productivity was estimated assuming a 1 ppm reference level and $130 million if no reference level was used. We conclude that significant mercury exposures occur in developing and transition country communities near sources named in the Minamata Convention, and our estimates suggest that a large economic burden could be avoided by timely implementation of measures to prevent mercury exposures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life cycle analyses of CO2, energy, and cost for four different routes of microalgal bioenergy conversion.

PubMed

Ventura, Jey-R S; Yang, Benqin; Lee, Yong-Woo; Lee, Kisay; Jahng, Deokjin

2013-06-01

With a target production of 1000 ton of dry algae/yr, lipid content of 30 wt.%, and productivity of 30 g/m(2)-d in a 340-day annual operation, four common scenarios of microalgae bioenergy routes were assessed in terms of cost, energy, and CO2 inputs and outputs. Scenario 1 (biodiesel production), Scenario 2 (Scenario 1 with integrated anaerobic digestion system), Scenario 3 (biogas production), and Scenario 4 (supercritical gasification) were evaluated. Scenario 4 outperformed other scenarios in terms of net energy production (1282.42 kWh/ton algae) and CO2 removal (1.32 ton CO2/ton algae) while Scenario 2 surpassed the other three scenarios in terms of net cost. Scenario 1 produced the lowest energy while Scenario 3 was the most expensive bioenergy system. This study evaluated critical parameters that could direct the proper design of the microalgae bioenergy system with an efficient energy production, CO2 removal, and economic feasibility. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scenarios for Ultrafast Gamma-Ray Variability in AGN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aharonian, F. A.; Barkov, M. V.; Khangulyan, D.

2017-05-01

We analyze three scenarios to address the challenge of ultrafast gamma-ray variability reported from active galactic nuclei. We focus on the energy requirements imposed by these scenarios: (I) external cloud in the jet, (II) relativistic blob propagating through the jet material, and (III) production of high-energy gamma-rays in the magnetosphere gaps. We show that while the first two scenarios are not constrained by the flare luminosity, there is a robust upper limit on the luminosity of flares generated in the black hole magnetosphere. This limit depends weakly on the mass of the central black hole and is determined by the accretion disk magnetization, viewing angle, and the pair multiplicity. For the most favorable values of these parameters, the luminosity for 5-minute flares is limited by 2× {10}43 {erg} {{{s}}}-1, which excludes a black hole magnetosphere origin of the flare detected from IC 310. In the scopes of scenarios (I) and (II), the jet power, which is required to explain the IC 310 flare, exceeds the jet power estimated based on the radio data. To resolve this discrepancy in the framework of scenario (II), it is sufficient to assume that the relativistic blobs are not distributed isotropically in the jet reference frame. A realization of scenario (I) demands that the jet power during the flare exceeds by a factor 102 the power of the radio jet relevant to a timescale of 108 years.

Application of the BRAFO tiered approach for benefit-risk assessment to case studies on heat processing contaminants.

PubMed

Schütte, Katrin; Boeing, Heiner; Hart, Andy; Heeschen, Walther; Reimerdes, Ernst H; Santare, Dace; Skog, Kerstin; Chiodini, Alessandro

2012-11-01

The aim of the European Funded Project BRAFO (benefit-risk analysis of foods) project was to develop a framework that allows quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits of foods based on a common scale of measurement. This publication describes the application of the BRAFO methodology to three different case studies: the formation of acrylamide in potato and cereal based products, the formation of benzo(a)pyrene through smoking and grilling of meat and fish and the heat-treatment of milk. Reference, alternative scenario and target population represented the basic structure to test the tiers of the framework. Various intervention methods intended to reduce acrylamide in potato and cereal products were evaluated against the historical production methods. In conclusion the benefits of the acrylamide-reducing measures were considered prevailing. For benzo(a)pyrene, three illustrated alternative scenarios were evaluated against the most common smoking practice. The alternative scenarios were assessed as delivering benefits, introducing only minimal potential risks. Similar considerations were made for heat treatment of milk where the comparison of the microbiological effects of heat treatment, physico-chemical changes of milk constituents with positive and negative health effects was assessed. In general, based on data available, benefits of the heat treatment were outweighing any risks. Copyright © 2012 ILSI Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Analysis of LNG peakshaving-facility release-prevention systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pelto, P.J.; Baker, E.G.; Powers, T.B.

1982-05-01

The purpose of this study is to provide an analysis of release prevention systems for a reference LNG peakshaving facility. An overview assessment of the reference peakshaving facility, which preceeded this effort, identified 14 release scenarios which are typical of the potential hazards involved in the operation of LNG peakshaving facilities. These scenarios formed the basis for this more detailed study. Failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis were used to estimate the expected frequency of each release scenario for the reference peakshaving facility. In addition, the effectiveness of release prevention, release detection, and release control systems weremore » evaluated.« less

Readings from Visibility Meters: Do They Really Mean the Maximum Distance of Observing A Black Object?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Zhang, S.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Selin, N. E.

2016-12-01

Climate change, favoring more heat waves and episodes of stagnant air, may deteriorate air quality by increasing ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and high pollution episodes. This effect, termed as "climate penalty", has been quantified and explained by many earlier studies in the U.S. and Europe, but research efforts in Asian countries are limited. We evaluate the impact of climate change on air quality and human health in China and India using a modeling framework that links the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model to the Community Atmosphere Model (MIT IGSM-CAM). Future climate fields are projected under three climate scenarios including a no-policy reference scenario and two climate stabilization scenarios with 2100 total radiative forcing targets of 9.7, 4.5 and 3.7 W m-2, respectively. Each climate scenario is run for five representations of climate variability to account for the role of natural variability. Thirty-year chemical transport simulations are conducted in 1981-2010 and 2086-2115 under the three climate scenarios with fixed anthropogenic emissions at year 2000 levels. We find that 2000—2100 climate change under the no-policy reference scenario would increase ozone concentrations in eastern China and northern India by up to 5 ppb through enhancing biogenic emissions and ozone production efficiency. Ozone extreme episodes also become more frequent in these regions, while climate policies can offset most of the increase in ozone episodes. Climate change between 2000 and 2100 would slightly increase anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in northern China and Sichuan province, but significantly reduce anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in southern China and northern India, primarily due to different chemical responses of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols to climate change in these regions. Our study also suggests that the mitigation costs of climate policies can be partially offset by health benefits from reduced climate-induced air pollution in China.

Climate Penalty on Air Quality and Human Health in China and India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Zhang, S.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Selin, N. E.

2017-12-01

Climate change, favoring more heat waves and episodes of stagnant air, may deteriorate air quality by increasing ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and high pollution episodes. This effect, termed as "climate penalty", has been quantified and explained by many earlier studies in the U.S. and Europe, but research efforts in Asian countries are limited. We evaluate the impact of climate change on air quality and human health in China and India using a modeling framework that links the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model to the Community Atmosphere Model (MIT IGSM-CAM). Future climate fields are projected under three climate scenarios including a no-policy reference scenario and two climate stabilization scenarios with 2100 total radiative forcing targets of 9.7, 4.5 and 3.7 W m-2, respectively. Each climate scenario is run for five representations of climate variability to account for the role of natural variability. Thirty-year chemical transport simulations are conducted in 1981-2010 and 2086-2115 under the three climate scenarios with fixed anthropogenic emissions at year 2000 levels. We find that 2000—2100 climate change under the no-policy reference scenario would increase ozone concentrations in eastern China and northern India by up to 5 ppb through enhancing biogenic emissions and ozone production efficiency. Ozone extreme episodes also become more frequent in these regions, while climate policies can offset most of the increase in ozone episodes. Climate change between 2000 and 2100 would slightly increase anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in northern China and Sichuan province, but significantly reduce anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in southern China and northern India, primarily due to different chemical responses of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols to climate change in these regions. Our study also suggests that the mitigation costs of climate policies can be partially offset by health benefits from reduced climate-induced air pollution in China.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008), the product-process distinction serves to highlight the unique characteristics and challenges of scenarios for global environmental change, including their use in large-scale official assessments, basis in biophysical modelling, weak connections to decision-makers, and roles as sites of public controversy. Parson argues that these characteristics of global environmental change scenarios prohibit process-oriented approaches, which rely on pre-identifying intended users and engaging them in the scenario development process. Instead, he proposes ways in which scenario products can be enhanced to support use by multiple, non-participant user communities. Wilkinson and Eidinow (2008) reach a different conclusion. They too identify the particular challenges of grappling with global environmental change. They examine approaches to past scenario efforts and categorize them into two groups that map loosely onto the product-process distinction: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric' approaches. They propose that progress in global environmental issues can best be made through a new, third type of approach ('reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based') that would combine elements of problem- and actor-focused approaches, creating scenario processes that can simultaneously support longer-term thinking as well as more immediate actions. Collectively, the papers in this issue range widely across issues associated with contemporary scenario processes and products. We can discern in them the outlines of an important set of suggestions for improving scenario development in the future, including, among others, the following: Focus scenario exercises on more specific questions so that results from multiple models can be more illuminating (O'Neill and Nakicenovic; Garb et al 2008). Enhance scenario transparency so as to enable extensions by users, rather than further expanding representation in global scenarios themselves (Parson 2008). Incorporate relatively simple measures (such as sub-national disaggregation of income distributions and climate change impacts) in order to boost the equity sensitivity of scenarios (Baer 2009). Recognize topics where social science inputs are becoming important for improving modelling and model relevance, such as providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, or developing measures of well-being which are independent of income levels, and include in global environmental scenario teams more representatives of social science professionals (Pitcher 2009; Garb et al 2008). Invest greater resources in assessing scenario results, and in understanding and overcoming the barriers to carrying out such assessment (Hulme and Dessai 2008; O'Neill and Nakicenovic, 2008). Disaggregate the variety of global change decision makers targeted as audiences for scenarios (Parson 2008; Garb et al 2008). Develop an additional 'reflective interventionist' scenarios approach that involves different epistemologies for active learning in the public interest (Wilkinson and Eidinow 2008). Draw on the extensive toolkit of social science research methods to analyze the social work of scenarios (Garb et al 2008). Create new institutions and scenario activities that can adapt and extend global scenarios to specific, often local or regional decision contexts (Parson 2008). Create fora in which scenario practitioners, modellers, decision-makers, and social scientists of various kinds can discuss the process of scenario construction and use (Garb et al 2008). We do not mean to imply a consensus among the participants in the Brown University workshop or of contributors to this collection of papers. At the same time, we believe that these and other insights and suggestions from these contributions do have a certain coherence, and collectively point to a deepening and reinvigoration of the environmental scenario-modelling enterprise—an enterprise now facing environmental change processes that are emerging as some of the most pressing challenges of our time. Acknowledgements We would like to thank the Global Environment Program at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University and the US Environmental Protection Agency for financially supporting publication of this focus issue. Focus on Global Environmental Scenarios Contents Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios? Mike Hulme and Suraje Dessai Learning from global emissions scenarios Brian C O'Neill and Nebojsa Nakicenovic Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling Yaakov Garb, Simone Pulver and Stacy D VanDeveer Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges E A Parson Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology Angela Wilkinson and Esther Eidinow Notes Note1 The workshop was held in March 2007, jointly sponsored by the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, and the US National Intelligence Council. See http://www.watsoninstitute.org/ge/scenarios/ for more information.

Future Scenarios of Livestock and Land Use in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, M. H.; Abrahão, G. M.

2016-12-01

Brazil currently has about 213 M cattle heads in 151 M ha of pastures. In the last 40 years, both the top 5% and the average stocking rate are increasing exponentially in Brazil, while the relative yield gap has been constant. Using these historical relationships, we estimate future scenarios of livestock and land use in Brazil. We assume a reference scenario for the top 5%, in which pasturelands are adequately fertilized, soil is not compacted and well drained, grasses are never burned, pastures are divided in 8 subdivisions of regular area, are cattle is rotated through the subdivisions. The reference scenario does not consider irrigation or feed supplementation. We calibrate a computer model and run it for the pasturelands throughout the entire country. We conclude that current pastures have about 20% efficiency to raise cattle compared to the reference scenario. Considering the reference scenario, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 100 years, with top 5% with about 9.3 heads per ha and the average 4.3 heads per ha, or 600 M heads of livestock. Considering a more pessimistic scenario, which considers an inflection of the curve in present times, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 60 years, with the top 5% stocking rate equal to 4.3 heads per ha and the average equal to 2.2 heads per ha, or 300 M heads of livestock. Both cases represent a considerable expansion of the livestock, maybe even higher than the growth of the global demands for beef. These scenarios indicate that not all existing pasturelands need to be used in the future - a significant part of them may be converted to croplands, which will also contribute to the reduction of deforestation.

Assessing the Effects of Sea Level Rise on Plum Island Estuary Marshes Using a Hydrodynamic-marsh Modeling Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, H. K.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Morris, J. T.; Alizad, K.

2015-12-01

Sea level rise (SLR) can significantly impact both human and ecological habitats in coastal and inland regions. Studies show that coastal estuaries and marsh systems are at the risk of losing their productivity under increasing rates of SLR (Donnelly and Bertness, 2001; Warren and Niering, 1993). The integrated hydrodynamic-marsh model (Hagen et al., 2013 & Alizad et al., 2015) uses a set of parameters and conditions to simulate tidal flow through the salt marsh of Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts. The hydrodynamic model computes mean high water (MHW) and mean low water (MLW) and is coupled to the zero-dimensional Marsh Equilibrium Model (Morris et al. 2002) to estimate changes in biomass productivity and accretion. The coupled hydrodynamic-marsh model was used to examine the effects of different scenarios of SLR (Parris et al., 2012) on salt marsh productivity for the year 2100 in the Plum Island Estuary. In this particular study, responses of salt marsh production for different scenarios of SLR were compared. The study shows higher productivity of salt marsh under a low SLR scenario and lower productivity under the higher SLR. The study also demonstrates the migration of salt marshes under higher SLR scenarios. References: Alizad, K., S. C. Hagen, Morris, J.T., Bacopoulos, P., Bilskie, M.V., and John, F.W. 2015. A coupled, two-dimensional hydrodynamic-marsh model with biological feedback. Limnology and Oceanography, In review. Donnelly, J.P., and M.D. Bertness. 2001. Rapid shoreward encroachment of salt marsh cordgrass in response to accelerated sea-level rise. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 98: 14218-14223.Hagen, S.C., J.T. Morris, P. Bacopoulos, and J. Weishampel. 2013. Sea-Level Rise Impact on a Salt Marsh System of the Lower St. Johns River. ASCE Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, Vol. 139, No. 2, March/April 2013, pp. 118-125.Morris, J.T., P.V. Sundareshwar, C.T. Nietch, B. Kjerfve, and D.R. Cahoon. 2002. Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level. Ecology 83: 2869-2877.Parris, A., P. Bromirski, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, A. Sallenger, and J. Weiss. 2012. Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US National Climate Assessment. In NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO, 1-37.

Untangling Consequential Futures: Discovering Self-Consistent Regional and Global Multi-Sector Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

Impacts and adaptations to global change largely occur at regional scales, yet they are shaped globally through the interdependent evolution of the climate, energy, agriculture, and industrial systems. It is important for regional actors to account for the impacts of global changes on their systems in a globally consistent but regionally relevant way. This can be challenging because emerging global reference scenarios may not reflect regional challenges. Likewise, regionally specific scenarios may miss important global feedbacks. In this work, we contribute a scenario discovery framework to identify regionally-specific decision relevant scenarios from an ensemble of scenarios of global change. To this end, we generated a large ensemble of time evolving regional, multi-sector global change scenarios by a full factorial sampling of the underlying assumptions in the emerging shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Statistical and visual analytics were then used to discover which SSP assumptions are particularly consequential for various regions, considering a broad range of time-evolving metrics that encompass multiple spatial scales and sectors. In an illustrative examples, we identify the most important global change narratives to inform water resource scenarios for several geographic regions using the proposed scenario discovery framework. Our results highlight the importance of demographic and agricultural evolution compared to technical improvements in the energy sector. We show that narrowly sampling a few canonical reference scenarios provides a very narrow view of the consequence space, increasing the risk of tacitly ignoring major impacts. Even optimistic scenarios contain unintended, disproportionate regional impacts and intergenerational transfers of consequence. Formulating consequential scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures requires a better exploration of which quantitative measures of consequences are important, for whom are they important, where, and when. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support `backwards' scenario generation techniques, that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Bayer, Anita D.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Olin, Stefan; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Popp, Alexander; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

2017-11-01

Land management for carbon storage is discussed as being indispensable for climate change mitigation because of its large potential to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and to avoid further emissions from deforestation. However, the acceptance and feasibility of land-based mitigation projects depends on potential side effects on other important ecosystem functions and their services. Here, we use projections of future land use and land cover for different land-based mitigation options from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) and evaluate their effects with a global dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). In the land-use models, carbon removal was achieved either via growth of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage, via avoided deforestation and afforestation, or via a combination of both. We compare these scenarios to a reference scenario without land-based mitigation and analyse the LPJ-GUESS simulations with the aim of assessing synergies and trade-offs across a range of ecosystem service indicators: carbon storage, surface albedo, evapotranspiration, water runoff, crop production, nitrogen loss, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds. In our mitigation simulations cumulative carbon storage by year 2099 ranged between 55 and 89 GtC. Other ecosystem service indicators were influenced heterogeneously both positively and negatively, with large variability across regions and land-use scenarios. Avoided deforestation and afforestation led to an increase in evapotranspiration and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, and to a decrease in albedo, runoff, and nitrogen loss. Crop production could also decrease in the afforestation scenarios as a result of reduced crop area, especially for MAgPIE land-use patterns, if assumed increases in crop yields cannot be realized. Bioenergy-based climate change mitigation was projected to affect less area globally than in the forest expansion scenarios, and resulted in less pronounced changes in most ecosystem service indicators than forest-based mitigation, but included a possible decrease in nitrogen loss, crop production, and biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions.

Impacts on Global Agriculture of Stratospheric Sulfate Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.; Xia, L.

2014-12-01

Impacts on global food supply are one of the most important concerns in the discussion of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering. Stratospheric sulfate injection could reduce surface temperature, precipitation, and insolation, which could affect agricultural production. We use output from climate model simulations using the two most "realistic" scenarios from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, G3 and G4. G3 posits balancing the increasing radiative forcing from the RCP4.5 business-as-usual scenario with stratospheric sulfate aerosols from 2020 through 2070. The G4 scenario also uses RCP4.5, but models simulate the stratospheric injection of 5 Tg SO2 per year from 2020 to 2070. In total, there are three modeling groups which have completed G3 and four for G4. We use two crop models, the global gridded Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (gDSSAT) crop model and the crop model in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM-crop), to predict global maize yield changes. Without changing agricultural technology, we find that compared to the reference run forced by the RCP4.5 scenario, maize yields could increase in both G3 and G4 due to both the cooling effect of stratospheric sulfate injection and the CO2 fertilization effect, with the cooling effect contributing more to the increased productivity. However, the maize yield changes are not much larger than natural variability under G3, since the temperature reduction is smaller in G3 than in G4. Both crop models show similar results.

Techno-economic evaluation of stillage treatment with anaerobic digestion in a softwood-to-ethanol process.

PubMed

Barta, Zsolt; Reczey, Kati; Zacchi, Guido

2010-09-15

Replacing the energy-intensive evaporation of stillage by anaerobic digestion is one way of decreasing the energy demand of the lignocellulosic biomass to the ethanol process. The biogas can be upgraded and sold as transportation fuel, injected directly into the gas grid or be incinerated on-site for combined heat and power generation. A techno-economic evaluation of the spruce-to-ethanol process, based on SO2-catalysed steam pretreatment followed by simultaneous saccharification and fermentation, has been performed using the commercial flow-sheeting program Aspen Plus™. Various process configurations of anaerobic digestion of the stillage, with different combinations of co-products, have been evaluated in terms of energy efficiency and ethanol production cost versus the reference case of evaporation. Anaerobic digestion of the stillage showed a significantly higher overall energy efficiency (87-92%), based on the lower heating values, than the reference case (81%). Although the amount of ethanol produced was the same in all scenarios, the production cost varied between 4.00 and 5.27 Swedish kronor per litre (0.38-0.50 euro/L), including the reference case. Higher energy efficiency options did not necessarily result in lower ethanol production costs. Anaerobic digestion of the stillage with biogas upgrading was demonstrated to be a favourable option for both energy efficiency and ethanol production cost. The difference in the production cost of ethanol between using the whole stillage or only the liquid fraction in anaerobic digestion was negligible for the combination of co-products including upgraded biogas, electricity and district heat.

Techno-economic evaluation of stillage treatment with anaerobic digestion in a softwood-to-ethanol process

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Replacing the energy-intensive evaporation of stillage by anaerobic digestion is one way of decreasing the energy demand of the lignocellulosic biomass to the ethanol process. The biogas can be upgraded and sold as transportation fuel, injected directly into the gas grid or be incinerated on-site for combined heat and power generation. A techno-economic evaluation of the spruce-to-ethanol process, based on SO2-catalysed steam pretreatment followed by simultaneous saccharification and fermentation, has been performed using the commercial flow-sheeting program Aspen Plus™. Various process configurations of anaerobic digestion of the stillage, with different combinations of co-products, have been evaluated in terms of energy efficiency and ethanol production cost versus the reference case of evaporation. Results Anaerobic digestion of the stillage showed a significantly higher overall energy efficiency (87-92%), based on the lower heating values, than the reference case (81%). Although the amount of ethanol produced was the same in all scenarios, the production cost varied between 4.00 and 5.27 Swedish kronor per litre (0.38-0.50 euro/L), including the reference case. Conclusions Higher energy efficiency options did not necessarily result in lower ethanol production costs. Anaerobic digestion of the stillage with biogas upgrading was demonstrated to be a favourable option for both energy efficiency and ethanol production cost. The difference in the production cost of ethanol between using the whole stillage or only the liquid fraction in anaerobic digestion was negligible for the combination of co-products including upgraded biogas, electricity and district heat. PMID:20843330

Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios.

PubMed

Ekins, Paul; Vanner, Robin; Firebrace, James

2006-06-01

A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.

Neem (Azadirachta indica): towards the ideal insecticide?

PubMed

Benelli, Giovanni; Canale, Angelo; Toniolo, Chiara; Higuchi, Akon; Murugan, Kadarkarai; Pavela, Roman; Nicoletti, Marcello

2017-02-01

Pesticide resistance is going to change rapidly our antibiotics and insecticides arsenal. In this scenario, plant-derived natural products are considered valuable candidates to reverse this negative trend. Growing research attention is focused on neem (Azadirachta indica, Meliaceae), exploring the utility of its products as insecticides and antibiotics. In this review, we summarised the knowledge on neem oil and neem cake by-products in arthropod pest control, with special reference to mosquito vectors of public health importance. To the best of our knowledge, neem-borne products currently showed effective and eco-friendly features, including little non-target effects, multiple mechanisms of action, low cost, easy production in countries with limited industrial facilities. In particular, the potentiality of neem cake as ideal and affordable source of mosquitocidal compounds in anopheline and aedine control programmes is outlined. Overall, we propose the employ of neem-based products as an advantageous alternative to build newer and safer arthropod control tools.

The ALMA CONOPS project: the impact of funding decisions on observatory performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibsen, Jorge; Hibbard, John; Filippi, Giorgio

2014-08-01

In time when every penny counts, many organizations are facing the question of how much scientific impact a budget cut can have or, putting it in more general terms, which is the science impact of alternative (less costly) operational modes. In reply to such question posted by the governing bodies, the ALMA project had to develop a methodology (ALMA Concepts for Operations, CONOPS) that attempts to measure the impact that alternative operational scenarios may have on the overall scientific production of the Observatory. Although the analysis and the results are ALMA specific, the developed approach is rather general and provides a methodology for a cost-performance analysis of alternatives before any radical alterations to the operations model are adopted. This paper describes the key aspects of the methodology: a) the definition of the Figures of Merit (FoMs) for the assessment of quantitative science performance impacts as well as qualitative impacts, and presents a methodology using these FoMs to evaluate the cost and impact of the different operational scenarios; b) the definition of a REFERENCE operational baseline; c) the identification of Alternative Scenarios each replacing one or more concepts in the REFERENCE by a different concept that has a lower cost and some level of scientific and/or operational impact; d) the use of a Cost-Performance plane to graphically combine the effects that the alternative scenarios can have in terms of cost reduction and affected performance. Although is a firstorder assessment, we believe this approach is useful for comparing different operational models and to understand the cost performance impact of these choices. This can be used to take decision to meet budget cuts as well as in evaluating possible new emergent opportunities.

Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Control Technology Options within the Energy, Water and Food Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Ansari, Tareq; Korre, Anna; Nie, Zhenggang; Shah, Nilay

2015-04-01

The utilisation of Energy, Water and Food (EWF) resources can be described as a nexus of complex linkages embodied in industrial and natural processes. Food production is one such example of a system that mobilises EWF resources to deliver a product which is highly influenced by the efficiency of the industrial processes contributing to it and the conditions of the surrounding natural environment. Aggregating the utilisation of EWF resources into interconnected sub-systems is necessary for the accurate representation of the system's dynamics in terms of its material flow and resource consumption. The methodology used in this study is an extension of previous work developed regarding nexus analysis (Al-Ansari et al. 2014a, Al-Ansari et al. 2014b). Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to prepare detailed models of the sub-system components, determine the linkages between the different nexus constituents and evaluate impacts on the natural environment. The nexus system is comprised of water sub-systems represented by a reverse osmosis (RO) desalination process. Energy sub-systems for power generation include models for a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and solar Photovoltaics (PV) energy generation, as well as an amine based CO2 capture process enabling the utilisation of CO2 for the artificial fertilization of crops. The agricultural sub-systems include the production and application of fertilizers and the raising of livestock. A biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) for power generation using waste manure from the livestock sub-system is also included. The objective of this study is to consider a conventional food system in Qatar and enhance its environmental performance by using a nexus approach to examine different scenarios and operating modes. For the Qatar case study, three scenarios and four modes of operation were developed as part of the analysis. The baseline scenario uses fossil fuel to power the entire EWF nexus system using CCGT, the second scenario integrates PV to power the RO units and the third scenario uses solar PV to power the RO and fertilizer production facilities. The second operating mode integrates the BIGCC for power generation and the third mode utilises the gasification by-product biochar for the enhancement of agricultural productivity in addition to the power generated from the BIGCC. The final mode of operation examines the use of CO2 capture technology in the baseline scenario to support fertilization resulting in productivity increases for crops. References: Al-Ansari, T., Korre, A., Nie, Z., Shah, N., "Development of a life cycle assessment model for the analysis of the energy, water and food nexus" Computer Aided Chemical Engineering, 33, (2014), 1039-1044. Al-Ansari, T., Korre, A., Nie, Z., Shah, N., Integrated Modelling of the Energy, Water and Food Nexus to Enhance the Environmental Performance of Food Production Systems, 9th International Conference LCA of Food, San Francisco, USA, 8 - 10 October 2014

[Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

PubMed

Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

2013-01-01

Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries.

PubMed

Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cécile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

2006-03-31

In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term "major accidents" must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called "risk matrix", crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage.

A Preliminary Performance Assessment for Salt Disposal of High-Level Nuclear Waste - 12173

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Joon H.; Clayton, Daniel; Jove-Colon, Carlos

2012-07-01

A salt repository is one of the four geologic media currently under study by the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy to support the development of a long-term strategy for geologic disposal of commercial used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). The immediate goal of the generic salt repository study is to develop the necessary modeling tools to evaluate and improve the understanding of the repository system response and processes relevant to long-term disposal of UNF and HLW in a salt formation. The current phase of this study considers representative geologic settings and features adopted from previous studiesmore » for salt repository sites. For the reference scenario, the brine flow rates in the repository and underlying interbeds are very low, and transport of radionuclides in the transport pathways is dominated by diffusion and greatly retarded by sorption on the interbed filling materials. I-129 is the dominant annual dose contributor at the hypothetical accessible environment, but the calculated mean annual dose is negligibly small. For the human intrusion (or disturbed) scenario, the mean mass release rate and mean annual dose histories are very different from those for the reference scenario. Actinides including Pu-239, Pu-242 and Np-237 are major annual dose contributors, and the calculated peak mean annual dose is acceptably low. A performance assessment model for a generic salt repository has been developed incorporating, where applicable, representative geologic settings and features adopted from literature data for salt repository sites. The conceptual model and scenario for radionuclide release and transport from a salt repository were developed utilizing literature data. The salt GDS model was developed in a probabilistic analysis framework. The preliminary performance analysis for demonstration of model capability is for an isothermal condition at the ambient temperature for the near field. The capability demonstration emphasizes key attributes of a salt repository that are potentially important to the long-term safe disposal of UNF and HLW. The analysis presents and discusses the results showing repository responses to different radionuclide release scenarios (undisturbed and human intrusion). For the reference (or nominal or undisturbed) scenario, the brine flow rates in the repository and underlying interbeds are very low, and transport of radionuclides in the transport pathways is dominated by diffusion and greatly retarded by sorption on the interbed filling materials. I-129 (non-sorbing and unlimited solubility with a very long half-life) is the dominant annual dose contributor at the hypothetical accessible environment, but the calculated mean annual dose is negligibly small that there is no meaningful consequence for the repository performance. For the human intrusion (or disturbed) scenario analysis, the mean mass release rate and mean annual dose histories are very different from those for the reference scenario analysis. Compared to the reference scenario, the relative annual dose contributions by soluble, non-sorbing fission products, particularly I-129, are much lower than by actinides including Pu-239, Pu-242 and Np-237. The lower relative mean annual dose contributions by the fission product radionuclides are due to their lower total inventory available for release (i.e., up to five affected waste packages), and the higher mean annual doses by the actinides are the outcome of the direct release of the radionuclides into the overlying aquifer having high water flow rates, thereby resulting in an early arrival of higher concentrations of the radionuclides at the biosphere drinking water well prior to their significant decay. The salt GDS model analysis has also identified the following future recommendations and/or knowledge gaps to improve and enhance the confidence of the future repository performance analysis. - Repository thermal loading by UNF and HLW, and the effect on the engineered barrier and near-field performance. - Closure and consolidation of salt rocks by creep deformation under the influence of thermal perturbation, and the effect on the engineered barrier and near-field performance. - Brine migration and radionuclide transport under the influence of thermal perturbation in generic salt repository environment, and the effect on the engineered barrier and near-field performance and far-field performance. - Near-field geochemistry and radionuclide mobility in generic salt repository environment (high ionic strength brines, elevated temperatures and chemically reducing condition). - Degradation of engineer barrier components (waste package, waste canister, waste forms, etc.) in a generic salt repository environment (high ionic strength brines, elevated temperatures and chemically reducing condition). - Waste stream types and inventory estimates, particularly for reprocessing high-level waste. (authors)« less

An equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Aken, H. M.; van Veldhoven, A. K.; Veth, C.; de Ruijter, W. P. M.; van Leeuwen, P. J.; Drijfhout, S. S.; Whittle, C. P.; Rouault, M.

2014-06-01

Global land use structure is changing rapidly due to unceasing population growth and accelerated urbanization, which leads to fierce competition between the rigid demand for built-up area and the protection of cultivated land, forest, and grassland. It has been a great challenge to realize the sustainable development of land resources. Based on a computable general equilibrium model of land use change with a social accounting matrix dataset, this study implemented an equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province during the period of 2008-2020 under three scenarios, the baseline scenario, low TFP (total factor productivity) scenario, and high TFP scenario. The results indicated that under all three scenarios, area of cultivated land declined significantly along with a remarkable expansion of built-up area, while areas of forest, grassland, and unused land increased slightly. The growth rate of TFP had first negative and then positive effects on the expansion of built-up area and decline of cultivated land as it increased. Moreover, the simulated changes of both cultivated land and built-up area were the biggest under the low TFP scenario, and far exceeded the limit in the Overall Plan for Land Utilization in the Yunnan Province in 2020. The scenario-based simulation results are of important reference value for policy-makers in making land use decisions, balancing the fierce competition between the protection of cultivated land and the increasing demand for built-up area, and guaranteeing food security, ecological security, and the sustainable development of land resources.

An equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jiao; Zhan, Jinyan; Lin, Yingzhi; Zhao, Chunhong

2014-09-01

Global land use structure is changing rapidly due to unceasing population growth and accelerated urbanization, which leads to fierce competition between the rigid demand for built-up area and the protection of cultivated land, forest, and grassland. It has been a great challenge to realize the sustainable development of land resources. Based on a computable general equilibrium model of land use change with a social accounting matrix dataset, this study implemented an equilibrium analysis of the land use structure in the Yunnan Province during the period of 2008-2020 under three scenarios, the baseline scenario, low TFP (total factor productivity) scenario, and high TFP scenario. The results indicated that under all three scenarios, area of cultivated land declined significantly along with a remarkable expansion of built-up area, while areas of forest, grassland, and unused land increased slightly. The growth rate of TFP had first negative and then positive effects on the expansion of built-up area and decline of cultivated land as it increased. Moreover, the simulated changes of both cultivated land and built-up area were the biggest under the low TFP scenario, and far exceeded the limit in the Overall Plan for Land Utilization in the Yunnan Province in 2020. The scenario-based simulation results are of important reference value for policy-makers in making land use decisions, balancing the fierce competition between the protection of cultivated land and the increasing demand for built-up area, and guaranteeing food security, ecological security, and the sustainable development of land resources.

Natural ageing process accelerates the release of Ag from functional textile in various exposure scenarios

PubMed Central

Ding, Dahu; Chen, Lulu; Dong, Shaowei; Cai, Hao; Chen, Jifei; Jiang, Canlan; Cai, Tianming

2016-01-01

Natural ageing process occurs throughout the life cycle of textile products, which may possess influences on the release behavior of additives such as silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs). In this study, we assessed the releasability of Ag NPs from a Ag NPs functionalized textile in five different exposure scenarios (i.e. tap water (TW), pond water (PW), rain water (RW), artificial sweat (AS), and detergent solution (DS) along with deionized water (DW) as reference), which were very likely to occur throughout the life cycle of the textile. For the pristine textile, although the most remarkable release was found in DW (6–15 μg Ag/g textile), the highest release rate was found in RW (around 7 μg Ag/(g textile·h)). After ageing treatment, the total released Ag could be increased by 75.7~386.0% in DW, AS and DS. Morphological analysis clearly showed that the Ag NPs were isolated from the surface of the textile fibre due to the ageing treatment. This study provides useful information for risk assessment of nano-enhanced textile products. PMID:27869136

Natural ageing process accelerates the release of Ag from functional textile in various exposure scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Dahu; Chen, Lulu; Dong, Shaowei; Cai, Hao; Chen, Jifei; Jiang, Canlan; Cai, Tianming

2016-11-01

Natural ageing process occurs throughout the life cycle of textile products, which may possess influences on the release behavior of additives such as silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs). In this study, we assessed the releasability of Ag NPs from a Ag NPs functionalized textile in five different exposure scenarios (i.e. tap water (TW), pond water (PW), rain water (RW), artificial sweat (AS), and detergent solution (DS) along with deionized water (DW) as reference), which were very likely to occur throughout the life cycle of the textile. For the pristine textile, although the most remarkable release was found in DW (6-15 μg Ag/g textile), the highest release rate was found in RW (around 7 μg Ag/(g textile·h)). After ageing treatment, the total released Ag could be increased by 75.7~386.0% in DW, AS and DS. Morphological analysis clearly showed that the Ag NPs were isolated from the surface of the textile fibre due to the ageing treatment. This study provides useful information for risk assessment of nano-enhanced textile products.

A new item response theory model to adjust data allowing examinee choice

PubMed Central

Costa, Marcelo Azevedo; Braga Oliveira, Rivert Paulo

2018-01-01

In a typical questionnaire testing situation, examinees are not allowed to choose which items they answer because of a technical issue in obtaining satisfactory statistical estimates of examinee ability and item difficulty. This paper introduces a new item response theory (IRT) model that incorporates information from a novel representation of questionnaire data using network analysis. Three scenarios in which examinees select a subset of items were simulated. In the first scenario, the assumptions required to apply the standard Rasch model are met, thus establishing a reference for parameter accuracy. The second and third scenarios include five increasing levels of violating those assumptions. The results show substantial improvements over the standard model in item parameter recovery. Furthermore, the accuracy was closer to the reference in almost every evaluated scenario. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first proposal to obtain satisfactory IRT statistical estimates in the last two scenarios. PMID:29389996

Operations analysis for lunar surface construction: Results of two office of exploration case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Lisa Y.; Boles, Walter; Smith, Alvin

1991-08-01

In an environment of intense competition for Federal funding, the U.S. space research community is responsible for developing a feasible, cost-effective approach to establishing a surface base on the moon to fulfill long-term Government objectives. This report presents the results of a construction operations analysis of two lunar scenarios provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Activities necessary to install the lunar base surface elements are defined and scheduled, based on the productivities and availability of the base resources allocated to the projects depicted in each scenario. The only construction project in which the required project milestones were not completed within the nominal timeframe was the initial startup phase of NASA's FY89 Lunar Evolution Case Study (LECS), primarily because this scenario did not include any Earth-based telerobotic site preparation before the arrival of the first crew. The other scenario analyzed. Reference Mission A from NASA's 90-Day Study of the Human Exploration of the Moon and Mars, did use telerobotic site preparation before the manned phase of the base construction. Details of the analysis for LECS are provided, including spreadsheets indicating quantities of work and Gantt charts depicting the general schedule for the work. This level of detail is not presented for the scenario based on the 90-Day Study because many of the projects include the same (or similar) surface elements and facilities.

Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

PubMed Central

Öttl, Anton; Behne, Dawn M.

2017-01-01

The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors), participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress. PMID:28936186

Technical potential of electricity production from municipal solid waste disposed in the biggest cities in Brazil: landfill gas, biogas and thermal treatment.

PubMed

de Souza, Samuel Nm; Horttanainen, Mika; Antonelli, Jhonatas; Klaus, Otávia; Lindino, Cleber A; Nogueira, Carlos Ec

2014-10-01

This article presents an analysis of possibilities for electrical energy production by using municipal solid waste disposed in the biggest Brazilian cities. Currently, the municipal solid waste in Brazil is collected and disposed of at landfills, but there are also other technologies, which in addition to dealing with the garbage can also provide benefits in terms of energy provision. The following scenarios were studied in this work: electricity production from landfill gas (reference scenario); incineration of all municipal solid waste; anaerobic digestion of organic waste and incineration of refuse-derived fuel fractions after being separated in separation plants. According to this study, the biggest cities in Brazil generate about 18.9 million tonnes of municipal solid waste per year (2011), of which 51.5% is biogenic matter. The overall domestic consumption of electricity is 480,120 GWh y(-1) in Brazil and the municipal solid waste incineration in the 16 largest cities in the country could replace 1.8% of it using incinerators. The city of São Paulo could produce 637 GWh y(-1) with landfill gas, 2368 GWh y(-1) with incineration of municipal solid waste and 1177 GWh y(-1) with incineration of refuse-derived fuel. The latter two scenarios could replace 27% and 13.5% of the residential electrical energy consumption in the city. This shows that thermal treatment might be a viable option of waste-to-energy in Brazil. © The Author(s) 2014.

Downscaled climate change impacts on agricultural water resources in Puerto Rico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harmsen, E.W.; Miller, N.L.; Schlegel, N.J.

2009-04-01

The purpose of this study is to estimate reference evapotranspiration (ET{sub o}), rainfall deficit (rainfall - ET{sub o}) and relative crop yield reduction for a generic crop under climate change conditions for three locations in Puerto Rico: Adjuntas, Mayaguez, and Lajas. Reference evapotranspiration is estimated by the Penman-Monteith method. Rainfall and temperature data were statistically downscaled and evaluated using the DOE/NCAR PCM global circulation model projections for the B1 (low), A2 (mid-high) and A1fi (high) emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Relative crop yield reductions were estimated from a function dependent watermore » stress factor, which is a function of soil moisture content. Average soil moisture content for the three locations was determined by means of a simple water balance approach. Results from the analysis indicate that the rainy season will become wetter and the dry season will become drier. The 20-year mean 1990-2010 September rainfall excess (i.e., rainfall - ET{sub o} > 0) increased for all scenarios and locations from 149.8 to 356.4 mm for 2080-2100. Similarly, the 20-year average February rainfall deficit (i.e., rainfall - ET{sub o} < 0) decreased from a -26.1 mm for 1990-2010 to -72.1 mm for the year 2080-2100. The results suggest that additional water could be saved during the wet months to offset increased irrigation requirements during the dry months. Relative crop yield reduction did not change significantly under the B1 projected emissions scenario, but increased by approximately 20% during the summer months under the A1fi emissions scenario. Components of the annual water balance for the three climate change scenarios are rainfall, evapotranspiration (adjusted for soil moisture), surface runoff, aquifer recharge and change in soil moisture storage. Under the A1fi scenario, for all locations, annual evapotranspiration decreased owing to lower soil moisture, surface runoff decreased, and aquifer recharge increased. Aquifer recharge increased at all three locations because the majority of recharge occurs during the wet season and the wet season became wetter. This is good news from a groundwater production standpoint. Increasing aquifer recharge also suggests that groundwater levels may increase and this may help to minimize saltwater intrusion near the coasts as sea levels increase, provided that groundwater use is not over-subscribed.« less

Assessing Health Impacts of Pictorial Health Warning Labels on Cigarette Packs in Korea Using DYNAMO-HIA

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Objectives This study aimed to predict the 10-year impacts of the introduction of pictorial warning labels (PWLs) on cigarette packaging in 2016 in Korea for adults using DYNAMO-HIA. Methods In total, four scenarios were constructed to better understand the potential health impacts of PWLs: two for PWLs and the other two for a hypothetical cigarette tax increase. In both policies, an optimistic and a conservative scenario were constructed. The reference scenario assumed the 2015 smoking rate would remain the same. Demographic data and epidemiological data were obtained from various sources. Differences in the predicted smoking prevalence and prevalence, incidence, and mortality from diseases were compared between the reference scenario and the four policy scenarios. Results It was predicted that the optimistic PWLs scenario (PWO) would lower the smoking rate by 4.79% in males and 0.66% in females compared to the reference scenario in 2017. However, the impact on the reduction of the smoking rate was expected to diminish over time. PWO will prevent 85 238 cases of diabetes, 67 948 of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 31 526 of ischemic heart disease, 21 036 of lung cancer, and 3972 prevalent cases of oral cancer in total over the 10-year span due to the reductions in smoking prevalence. The impacts of PWO are expected to be between the impact of the optimistic and the conservative cigarette tax increase scenarios. The results were sensitive to the transition probability of smoking status. Conclusions The introduction of PWLs in 2016 in Korea is expected reduce smoking prevalence and disease cases for the next 10 years, but regular replacements of PWLs are needed for persistent impacts. PMID:28768403

Assessing Health Impacts of Pictorial Health Warning Labels on Cigarette Packs in Korea Using DYNAMO-HIA.

PubMed

Kang, Eunjeong

2017-07-01

This study aimed to predict the 10-year impacts of the introduction of pictorial warning labels (PWLs) on cigarette packaging in 2016 in Korea for adults using DYNAMO-HIA. In total, four scenarios were constructed to better understand the potential health impacts of PWLs: two for PWLs and the other two for a hypothetical cigarette tax increase. In both policies, an optimistic and a conservative scenario were constructed. The reference scenario assumed the 2015 smoking rate would remain the same. Demographic data and epidemiological data were obtained from various sources. Differences in the predicted smoking prevalence and prevalence, incidence, and mortality from diseases were compared between the reference scenario and the four policy scenarios. It was predicted that the optimistic PWLs scenario (PWO) would lower the smoking rate by 4.79% in males and 0.66% in females compared to the reference scenario in 2017. However, the impact on the reduction of the smoking rate was expected to diminish over time. PWO will prevent 85 238 cases of diabetes, 67 948 of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 31 526 of ischemic heart disease, 21 036 of lung cancer, and 3972 prevalent cases of oral cancer in total over the 10-year span due to the reductions in smoking prevalence. The impacts of PWO are expected to be between the impact of the optimistic and the conservative cigarette tax increase scenarios. The results were sensitive to the transition probability of smoking status. The introduction of PWLs in 2016 in Korea is expected reduce smoking prevalence and disease cases for the next 10 years, but regular replacements of PWLs are needed for persistent impacts.

Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1999-09-01

Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what typemore » of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and selecting projects for funding is discussed objectively. Although defined as separate sub-tasks, the EGS site review and reference scenarios are closely related. The incremental approach to EGS development that has recently been adopted could logically be expected to yield proposals for studies that lead up to and include production-enhancement experiments in producing geothermal fields in the very near future. However, the strategic plan clearly calls for the development of a more comprehensive demonstration project that can generate up to perhaps 10 MW (gross). It is anticipated that a series of small-scale experiments will define what realistically may be achieved in the near future, thus setting the stage for a successful pilot demonstration. This report continues the process of presenting information on EGS sites and experiments, and begins the process of defining what a demonstration project might be.« less

Ambient Intelligence 2.0: Towards Synergetic Prosperity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarts, Emile; Grotenhuis, Frits

Ten years of research in Ambient Intelligence have revealed that the original ideas and assertions about the way the concept should develop no longer hold and should be substantially revised. Early scenario's in Ambient Intelligence envisioned a world in which individuals could maximally exploit personalized, context aware, wireless devices thus enabling them to become maximally productive, while living at an unprecedented pace. Environments would become smart and proactive, enriching and enhancing the experience of participants thus supporting maximum leisure possibly even at the risk of alienation. New insights have revealed that these brave new world scenarios are no longer desirable and that people are more in for a balanced approach in which technology should serve people instead of driving them to the max. We call this novel approach Synergetic Prosperity, referring to meaningful digital solutions that balance mind and body, and society and earth thus contributing to a prosperous and sustainable development of mankind.

Agricultural Baseline (BL0) scenario

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinckel, Chad M [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the reference case for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios. The agricultural baseline runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used. Date the data set was last modified: 02/12/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: simulation was developed without offering a farmgate price to energy crops or residues (i.e., building on both the USDA 2015 baseline and the agricultural census data (USDA NASS 2014). Data generated are .txt output files by year, simulation identifier, county code (1-3109). Instruments used: POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B) supplied by the University of Tennessee APAC The quality assurance and quality control that have been applied: • Check for negative planted area, harvested area, production, yield and cost values. • Check if harvested area exceeds planted area for annuals. • Check FIPS codes.

Economic and financial viability of small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico: economic scenario 2010-2018.

PubMed

Posadas-Domínguez, R R; Callejas-Juárez, N; Arriaga-Jordán, C M; Martínez-Castañeda, F E

2016-12-01

A simulation Monte Carlo model was used to assess the economic and financial viability of 130 small-scale dairy farms in central Mexico, through a Representative Small-Scale Dairy Farm. Net yields were calculated for a 9-year planning horizon by means of simulated values for the distribution of input and product prices taking 2010 as base year and considering four scenarios which were compared against the scenario of actual production. The other scenarios were (1) total hiring in of needed labour; (2) external purchase of 100 % of inputs and (3) withdrawal of subsidies to production. A stochastic modelling approach was followed to determine the scenario with the highest economic and financial viability. Results show a viable economic and financial situation for the real production scenario, as well as the scenarios for total hiring of labour and of withdrawal of subsidies, but the scenario when 100 % of feed inputs for the herd are bought-in was not viable.

Proposed Requirements-driven User-scenario Development Protocol for the Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wee, B.; Car, N.; Percivall, G.; Allen, D.; Fitch, P. G.; Baumann, P.; Waldmann, H. C.

2014-12-01

The Belmont Forum E-Infrastructure and Data Management Cooperative Research Agreement (CRA) is designed to foster a global community to collaborate on e-infrastructure challenges. One of the deliverables is an implementation plan to address global data infrastructure interoperability challenges and align existing domestic and international capabilities. Work package three (WP3) of the CRA focuses on the harmonization of global data infrastructure for sharing environmental data. One of the subtasks under WP3 is the development of user scenarios that guide the development of applicable deliverables. This paper describes the proposed protocol for user scenario development. It enables the solicitation of user scenarios from a broad constituency, and exposes the mechanisms by which those solicitations are evaluated against requirements that map to the Belmont Challenge. The underlying principle of traceability forms the basis for a structured, requirements-driven approach resulting in work products amenable to trade-off analyses and objective prioritization. The protocol adopts the ISO Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) as a top level framework. User scenarios are developed within RM-ODP's "Enterprise Viewpoint". To harmonize with existing frameworks, the protocol utilizes the conceptual constructs of "scenarios", "use cases", "use case categories", and use case templates as adopted by recent GEOSS Architecture Implementation Project (AIP) deliverables and CSIRO's eReefs project. These constructs are encapsulated under the larger construct of "user scenarios". Once user scenarios are ranked by goodness-of-fit to the Belmont Challenge, secondary scoring metrics may be generated, like goodness-of-fit to FutureEarth science themes. The protocol also facilitates an assessment of the ease of implementing given user scenario using existing GEOSS AIP deliverables. In summary, the protocol results in a traceability graph that can be extended to coordinate across research programmes. If implemented using appropriate technologies and harmonized with existing ontologies, this approach enables queries, sensitivity analyses, and visualization of complex relationships.

Forest management strategies for reducing carbon emissions, the French case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valade, Aude; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Bellassen, Valentin; Vallet, Patrick; Martin, Manuel

2015-04-01

International agreements now recognize the role of forest in the mitigation of climate change through the levers of in-situ sequestration, storage in products and energy and product substitution. These three strategies of carbon management are often antagonistic and it is still not clear which strategy would have the most significant impact on atmospheric carbon concentrations. With a focus on France, this study compares several scenarios of forest management in terms of their effect on the overall carbon budget from trees to wood-products. We elaborated four scenarios of forest management that target different wood production objectives. One scenario is 'Business as usual' and reproduces the current forest management and wood production levels. Two scenarios target an increase in bioenergy wood production, with either long-term or short-term goals. One scenario aims at increasing the production of timber for construction. For this, an empirical regression model was developed building on the rich French inventory database. The model can project the current forest resource at a time horizon of 20 years for characteristic variables diameter, standing volume, above-ground biomass, stand age. A simplified life-cycle analysis provides a full carbon budget for each scenario from forest management to wood use and allows the identification of the scenario that most reduces carbon emissions.

Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

PubMed

Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

2017-01-01

In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Economic Aspect of the AVOID Programme: Analysis Using the AIM/CGE Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumoto, Ken'ichi; Masui, Toshihiko

2010-05-01

This presentation purposes to show the results of the analysis that the AIM/CGE [Global] model contributed to Work Stream 1 of the AVOID programme. Three economic models participate in this WS to analyze the economic aspects of defined climate policies, and the AIM/CGE [Global] model is one of them. The reference scenario is SRES A1B and five policy scenarios (2016.R2.H, 2016.R4.L, 2016.R5.L, 2030.R2.H, and 2030.R5.L) are considered. The climate policies are expressed as emissions pathways of several gases such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The AIM/CGE [Global] model is a recursive dynamic global CGE model with 21 industrial sectors and 24 world regions. These definitions are based on the GTAP6 database and it is used as the economic data of the base year. Some important characteristics of this model can be summarized as follows: power generation by various sources (from non-renewables to renewables) are considered; CCS technology is modeled; biomass energy (both traditional and purpose-grown) production and consumption are included; not only CO2 emissions but also other gases are considered; international markets are modeled for international trade of some fossil fuels; relationships between the costs and resource reserves of fossil fuels are modeled. The model is run with 10-year time steps until 2100. For the reference case, there are no constraints and the model is run based on the drivers (assumptions on GDP and population for A1B) and AEEI. The reference case does not have the same emissions pathways as the prescribed emissions for A1B in AVOID. For scenario cases, the model is run under emissions constraints. In particular, for each policy scenario, the constraint on each gas in each 10-year step is derived. The percentage reduction in emissions that occurs between the AVOID A1B scenario and the particular policy scenario, for each gas in each 10-year period is first calculated, and then these percentage reductions are applied to the AIM reference case to derive the constraints for each gas over the 21st century. The main results provided to AVOID were carbon prices and GDP for each scenario case. About the carbon prices, the results show that the higher the emissions reduction rate and the earlier the peak, the higher the carbon prices will be, and the prices tend to be higher over time (536/tCO2 in 2100 for 2016.R5.L). These trends are quite different from those of the E3MG model which assumes constant carbon tax for each scenario (232/tCO2 in 2100 for 2016.R5.L). In addition, the higher carbon prices are necessary in the AIM/CGE model than the E3MG model, especially in the latter half of the century. About the GDP trends, the results indicate that negative GDP changes occur for all scenarios cases, and higher GDP damage is observed as the reduction rate becomes higher and the peak comes earlier (-7.04% in 2100 for 2016.R5.L). These trends are extremely different from those of the E3MG model which shows positive GDP effects (+4.89% in 2100 for 2016.R5.L). The differences of the results among the two models are caused by (1) technological change assumptions, (2) revenue recycling methodology, (3) timing of emissions cuts, and (4) modeling approaches. We expect to have a more detailed discussion at the session.

Bioextraction potential of seaweed in Denmark - An instrument for circular nutrient management.

PubMed

Seghetta, Michele; Tørring, Ditte; Bruhn, Annette; Thomsen, Marianne

2016-09-01

The aim of the study is to assess the efficacy of seaweed for circular nutrient management to reduce eutrophication levels in the aquatic environment. We performed a comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of two reference waste management systems treating seaweed as biowaste, i.e. landfill disposal and combustion, and an alternative scenario using the seaweed Saccharina latissima as a resource for biobased fertilizer production. Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods were improved by using a cradle-to-cradle approach, quantifying fate factors for nitrogen and phosphorus loss from fertilized agriculture to the aquatic environment. We also differentiated between nitrogen- and phosphorus-limited marine water to improve the traditional freshwater impact category, making this indicator suitable for decision support in relation to coastal water management schemes. Offshore cultivation of Saccharina latissima with an average productivity of 150Mg/km(2) in Danish waters in 2014 was applied to a cultivation scenario of 208km(2). The bioresource scenario performs better than conventional biowaste management systems, delivering a net reduction in aquatic eutrophication levels of 32.29kgNeq. and 16.58kgPO4(3-)eq. per Mg (dry weight) of seaweed, quantified by the ReCiPe and CML impact assessment methods, respectively. Seaweed cultivation, harvest and reuse of excess nutrients from the aquatic environment is a promising approach for sustainable resource cycling in a future regenerative economy that exploits manmade emissions as a resource for closed loop biobased production while significantly reducing eutrophication levels in 3 out of 7 Danish river basin districts. We obtained at least 10% bioextraction of phosphorus manmade emissions (10%, 89% and >100%) and contributed significantly to local nitrogen reduction goals according to the Water Framework Directive (23%, 78% and >100% of the target). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Health impact assessment of policies for municipal solid waste management: findings of the SESPIR Project].

PubMed

Ranzi, Andrea; Ancona, Carla; Angelini, Paola; Badaloni, Chiara; Cernigliaro, Achille; Chiusolo, Monica; Parmagnani, Federica; Pizzuti, Renato; Scondotto, Salvatore; Cadum, Ennio; Forastiere, Francesco; Lauriola, Paolo

2014-01-01

The SESPIR Project (Epidemiological Surveillance of Health Status of Resident Population Around the Waste Treatment Plants) assessed the impact on health of residents nearby incinerators, landfills and mechanical biological treatment plants in five Italian regions (Emilia-Romagna, Piedmont, Lazio, Campania, and Sicily). The assessment procedure took into account the available knowledge on health effects of waste disposal facilities. Analyses were related to three different scenarios: a Baseline scenario, referred to plants active in 2008-2009; the regional future scenario, with plants expected in the waste regional plans; a virtuous scenario (Green 2020), based on a policy management of municipal solid waste (MSW) through the reduction of production and an intense recovery policy. Facing with a total population of around 24 million for the 5 regions, the residents nearby the plants were more than 380,000 people at Baseline. Such a population is reduced to approximately 330.000 inhabitants and 170.000 inhabitants in the regional and Green 2020 scenarios, respectively. The health impact was assessed for the period 2008-2040. At Baseline, 1-2 cases per year of cancer attributable to MSW plants were estimated, as well as 26 cases per year of adverse pregnancy outcomes (including low birth weight and birth defects), 102 persons with respiratory symptoms, and about a thousand affected from annoyance caused by odours. These annual estimates are translated into 2,725 years of life with disability (DALYs) estimated for the entire period. The DALYs are reduced by approximately 20% and 80% in the two future scenarios. Even in these cases, health impact is given by the greater effects on pregnancy and the annoyance associated with the odours of plants. In spite of the limitations due to the inevitable assumptions required by the present exercise, the proposed methodology is suitable for a first approach to assess different policies that can be adopted in regional planning in the field of waste management. The greatest reduction in health impact is achieved with a virtuous policy of reducing waste production and a significant increase in the collection and recycling of waste.

[Assessment on the availability of nitrogen fertilization in improving carbon sequestration potential of China's cropland soil].

PubMed

Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiao-Ke; Han, Bing; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Duan, Xiao-Nan; Zheng, Hua

2008-10-01

With reference to the situation of nitrogen fertilization in 2003 and the recommendations from agricultural experts on fertilization to different crops, two scenarios, namely, 'current situation' and 'fertilization as recommended', were set for estimating the current and potential carbon sequestration of China's cropland soil under nitrogen fertilization. After collecting and analyzing the typical data from the long-term agricultural experiment stations all over China, and based on the recent studies of soil organic matter and nutrient dynamics, we plotted China into four agricultural regions, and estimated the carbon sequestration rate and potential of cropland soil under the two scenarios in each province of China. Meanwhile, with the data concerning fossil fuel consumption for fertilizer production and nitrogen fertilization, the greenhouse gas leakage caused by nitrogen fertilizer production and application was estimated with the help of the parameters given by domestic studies and IPCC. We further proposed that the available carbon sequestration potential of cropland soil could be taken as the criterion of the validity and availability of carbon sequestration measures. The results showed that the application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer could bring about a carbon sequestration potential of 21.9 Tg C x a(-1) in current situation, and 30.2 Tg C x a(-1) with fertilization as recommended. However, under the two scenarios, the greenhouse gas leakage caused by fertilizer production and application would reach 72.9 Tg C x a(-1) and 91.4 Tg C x a(-1), and thus, the actual available carbon sequestration potential would be -51.0 Tg C x a(-1) and -61.1 Tg C x a(-1), respectively. The situation was even worse under the 'fertilization as recommended' scenario, because the increase in the amount of nitrogen fertilization would lead to 10. 1 Tg C x a(-1) or more net greenhouse gas emission. All these results indicated that the application of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer could not be taken as a feasible measure for the carbon sequestration of cropland soil in China. Since synthetic fertilizer application is the basic guarantee of China's crop production, it was suggested to increase the efficiency of synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, and at the same time, to cut down the synthetic nitrogen fertilizer production and its application on the premise that the crop yield should be ensured.

Reference interval estimation: Methodological comparison using extensive simulations and empirical data.

PubMed

Daly, Caitlin H; Higgins, Victoria; Adeli, Khosrow; Grey, Vijay L; Hamid, Jemila S

2017-12-01

To statistically compare and evaluate commonly used methods of estimating reference intervals and to determine which method is best based on characteristics of the distribution of various data sets. Three approaches for estimating reference intervals, i.e. parametric, non-parametric, and robust, were compared with simulated Gaussian and non-Gaussian data. The hierarchy of the performances of each method was examined based on bias and measures of precision. The findings of the simulation study were illustrated through real data sets. In all Gaussian scenarios, the parametric approach provided the least biased and most precise estimates. In non-Gaussian scenarios, no single method provided the least biased and most precise estimates for both limits of a reference interval across all sample sizes, although the non-parametric approach performed the best for most scenarios. The hierarchy of the performances of the three methods was only impacted by sample size and skewness. Differences between reference interval estimates established by the three methods were inflated by variability. Whenever possible, laboratories should attempt to transform data to a Gaussian distribution and use the parametric approach to obtain the most optimal reference intervals. When this is not possible, laboratories should consider sample size and skewness as factors in their choice of reference interval estimation method. The consequences of false positives or false negatives may also serve as factors in this decision. Copyright © 2017 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands

PubMed Central

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E.; Fox, Garey A.

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002–2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands. PMID:28792541

Hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio favors switchgrass production on marginal croplands over existing grasslands.

PubMed

Yimam, Yohannes Tadesse; Ochsner, Tyson E; Fox, Garey A

2017-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has attracted attention as a promising second generation biofuel feedstock. Both existing grasslands and marginal croplands have been suggested as targets for conversion to switchgrass, but the resulting production potentials and hydrologic impacts are not clear. The objectives of this study were to model switchgrass production on existing grasslands (scenario-I) and on marginal croplands that have severe to very severe limitations for crop production (scenario-II) and to evaluate the effects on evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the 1063 km2 Skeleton Creek watershed in north-central Oklahoma, a watershed dominated by grasslands (35%) and winter wheat cropland (47%). The simulated average annual yield (2002-2011) for rainfed Alamo switchgrass for both scenarios was 12 Mg ha-1. Yield varied spatially under scenario-I from 6.1 to 15.3 Mg ha-1, while under scenario-II the range was from 8.2 to 13.8 Mg ha-1. Comparison of average annual ET and streamflow between the baseline simulation (existing land use) and scenario-I showed that scenario-I had 5.6% (37 mm) higher average annual ET and 27.7% lower streamflow, representing a 40.7 million m3 yr-1 streamflow reduction. Compared to the baseline, scenario-II had only 0.5% higher ET and 3.2% lower streamflow, but some monthly impacts were larger. In this watershed, the water yield reduction per ton of biomass production (i.e. hydrologic cost-effectiveness ratio) was more than 5X greater under scenario-I than under scenario-II. These results suggest that, from a hydrologic perspective, it may be preferable to convert marginal cropland to switchgrass production rather than converting existing grasslands.

Cost-efficiency analyses for the US of biosimilar filgrastim-sndz, reference filgrastim, pegfilgrastim, and pegfilgrastim with on-body injector in the prophylaxis of chemotherapy-induced (febrile) neutropenia.

PubMed

McBride, Ali; Campbell, Kim; Bikkina, Mohan; MacDonald, Karen; Abraham, Ivo; Balu, Sanjeev

2017-10-01

Guidelines recommend prophylaxis with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor for chemotherapy-induced (febrile) neutropenia (CIN/FN) based on regimen myelotoxicity and patient-related risk factors. The aim was to conduct a cost-efficiency analysis for the US of the direct acquisition and administration costs of the recently approved biosimilar filgrastim-sndz (Zarxio EP2006) with reference to filgrastim (Neupogen), pegfilgrastim (Neulasta), and a pegfilgrastim injection device (Neulasta Onpro; hereafter pegfilgrastim-injector) for CIN/FN prophylaxis. A cost-efficiency analysis of the prophylaxis of one patient during one chemotherapy cycle under 1-14 days' time horizon was conducted using the unit dose average selling price (ASP) and Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes for subcutaneous prophylactic injection under four scenarios: cost of medication only (COSTMED), patient self-administration (SELFADMIN), healthcare provider (HCP) initiating administration followed by self-administration (HCPSTART), and HCP providing full administration (HCPALL). Two case studies were created to illustrate real-world clinical implications. The analyses were replicated using wholesale acquisition cost (WAC). Using ASP + CPT, cost savings achieved with filgrastim-sndz relative to reference filgrastim ranged from $65 (1 day) to $916 (14 days) across all scenarios. Relative to pegfilgrastim, savings with filgrastim-sndz ranged from $834 (14 days) up to $3,666 (1 day) under the COSTMED, SELFADMIN, and HPOSTART scenarios; and from $284 (14 days) up to $3,666 (1 day) under the HPOALL scenario. Similar to the cost-savings compared to pegfilgrastim, filgrastim-sndz achieved savings relative to pegfilgrastim-injector: from $834 (14 days) to $3,666 (1 day) under the COSTMED scenario, from $859 (14 days) to $3,692 (1 day) under SELFADMIN, from $817 (14 days) to $3,649 (1 day) under HPOSTART, and from $267 (14 days) to $3,649 (1 day) under HPOALL. Cost savings of filgrastim-sndz using WAC + CPT were even greater under all scenarios. Prophylaxis with filgrastim-sndz, a biosimilar filgrastim, was associated consistently with significant cost-savings over prophylaxis with reference filgrastim, pegfilgrastim, and pegfilgrastim-injector, and this across various administration scenarios.

Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

2012-04-01

The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

Reference-dependent preferences for maternity wards: an exploration of two reference points.

PubMed

Neuman, Einat

2014-01-01

It is now well established that a person's valuation of the benefit from an outcome of a decision is determined by the intrinsic "consumption utility" of the outcome itself and also by the relation of the outcome to some reference point. The most notable expression of such reference-dependent preferences is loss aversion. What precisely this reference point is, however, is less clear. This paper claims and provides empirical evidence for the existence of more than one reference point. Using a discrete choice experiment in the Israeli public health-care sector, within a sample of 219 women who had given birth, it is shown that respondents refer to two reference points : (i) a constant scenario that is used in the experiment; and (ii) also the actual state of the quantitative attributes of the service (number of beds in room of hospitalization; and travel time from residence to hospital). In line with the loss aversion theory, it is also shown that losses (vis-à-vis the constant scenario and vis-à-vis the actual state) accumulate and have reinforced effects, while gains do not.

Prediction of Change in Prescription Ingredient Costs and Co-payment Rates under a Reference Pricing System in South Korea.

PubMed

Heo, Ji Haeng; Rascati, Karen L; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2017-05-01

The reference pricing system (RPS) establishes reference prices within interchangeable reference groupings. For drugs priced higher than the reference point, patients pay the difference between the reference price and the total price. To predict potential changes in prescription ingredient costs and co-payment rates after implementation of an RPS in South Korea. Korean National Health Insurance claims data were used as a baseline to develop possible RPS models. Five components of a potential RPS policy were varied: reference groupings, reference pricing methods, co-pay reduction programs, manufacturer price reductions, and increased drug substitutions. The potential changes for prescription ingredient costs and co-payment rates were predicted for the various scenarios. It was predicted that transferring the difference (total price minus reference price) from the insurer to patients would reduce ingredient costs from 1.4% to 22.8% for the third-party payer (government), but patient co-payment rates would increase from a baseline of 20.4% to 22.0% using chemical groupings and to 25.0% using therapeutic groupings. Savings rates in prescription ingredient costs (government and patient combined) were predicted to range from 1.6% to 13.7% depending on various scenarios. Although the co-payment rate would increase, a 15% price reduction by manufacturers coupled with a substitution rate of 30% would result in a decrease in the co-payment amount (change in absolute dollars vs. change in rates). Our models predicted that the implementation of RPS in South Korea would lead to savings in ingredient costs for the third-party payer and co-payments for patients with potential scenarios. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal assessment and trade-offs of multiple ecosystem services based on land use changes in Zengcheng, China.

PubMed

Sun, Xiao; Li, Feng

2017-12-31

Driven by rapid urbanization, land use change has become a significant factor influencing ecosystem services (ESs). To support the decision-making process of city planners and policy makers, assessing the spatiotemporal changes associated with multiple ESs is vital. In this study, we developed a general structure to assess the changes of multiple ESs in Zengcheng, China. A new index also was developed to measure the comprehensive ecosystem service (CES). Trade-offs of various ESs were analyzed by using correlation analysis. We then designed four alternate scenarios to explore the optimal land use strategies to increase the CES value and minimize trade-offs among various ESs. Results demonstrated that rapid expansion of built-up land and traffic land resulted in a decrease of CES in Zengcheng from 2003 to 2013. Although the water supply, water purification, and vegetable and fruit production services increased, the climate regulation, soil conservation, biodiversity protection, recreation opportunity and grain production services decreased during the ten-year period. Government should implement land use policies and ecological engineering measures to improve soil conservation in the northern region; recreation opportunity in the central region; and carbon storage, water purification, biodiversity protection and recreation opportunity in the southern region. Among all alternative scenarios, woodland buffer and soil conservation scenarios exhibit the highest CES values, indicating that policies such as the "Ecological corridor construction" project and the "Grain for Green" project should be implemented. However, a caveat is that these policies improve the ESs at the expense of food production due to significant trade-off relationships. To minimize the trade-offs, a more sustainable intensification of agriculture should be adopted to increase food production without decreasing other ESs or occupying additional land. The land use strategies and ecological engineering measures in this study can provide a reliable reference for sustainable development of other urbanized regions in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Joint genomic evaluation of French dairy cattle breeds using multiple-trait models.

PubMed

Karoui, Sofiene; Carabaño, María Jesús; Díaz, Clara; Legarra, Andrés

2012-12-07

Using a multi-breed reference population might be a way of increasing the accuracy of genomic breeding values in small breeds. Models involving mixed-breed data do not take into account the fact that marker effects may differ among breeds. This study was aimed at investigating the impact on accuracy of increasing the number of genotyped candidates in the training set by using a multi-breed reference population, in contrast to single-breed genomic evaluations. Three traits (milk production, fat content and female fertility) were analyzed by genomic mixed linear models and Bayesian methodology. Three breeds of French dairy cattle were used: Holstein, Montbéliarde and Normande with 2976, 950 and 970 bulls in the training population, respectively and 964, 222 and 248 bulls in the validation population, respectively. All animals were genotyped with the Illumina Bovine SNP50 array. Accuracy of genomic breeding values was evaluated under three scenarios for the correlation of genomic breeding values between breeds (r(g)): uncorrelated (1), r(g) = 0; estimated r(g) (2); high, r(g) = 0.95 (3). Accuracy and bias of predictions obtained in the validation population with the multi-breed training set were assessed by the coefficient of determination (R(2)) and by the regression coefficient of daughter yield deviations of validation bulls on their predicted genomic breeding values, respectively. The genetic variation captured by the markers for each trait was similar to that estimated for routine pedigree-based genetic evaluation. Posterior means for rg ranged from -0.01 for fertility between Montbéliarde and Normande to 0.79 for milk yield between Montbéliarde and Holstein. Differences in R(2) between the three scenarios were notable only for fat content in the Montbéliarde breed: from 0.27 in scenario (1) to 0.33 in scenarios (2) and (3). Accuracies for fertility were lower than for other traits. Using a multi-breed reference population resulted in small or no increases in accuracy. Only the breed with a small data set and large genetic correlation with the breed with a large data set showed increased accuracy for the traits with moderate (milk) to high (fat content) heritability. No benefit was observed for fertility, a lowly heritable trait.

Joint genomic evaluation of French dairy cattle breeds using multiple-trait models

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Using a multi-breed reference population might be a way of increasing the accuracy of genomic breeding values in small breeds. Models involving mixed-breed data do not take into account the fact that marker effects may differ among breeds. This study was aimed at investigating the impact on accuracy of increasing the number of genotyped candidates in the training set by using a multi-breed reference population, in contrast to single-breed genomic evaluations. Methods Three traits (milk production, fat content and female fertility) were analyzed by genomic mixed linear models and Bayesian methodology. Three breeds of French dairy cattle were used: Holstein, Montbéliarde and Normande with 2976, 950 and 970 bulls in the training population, respectively and 964, 222 and 248 bulls in the validation population, respectively. All animals were genotyped with the Illumina Bovine SNP50 array. Accuracy of genomic breeding values was evaluated under three scenarios for the correlation of genomic breeding values between breeds (rg): uncorrelated (1), rg = 0; estimated rg (2); high, rg = 0.95 (3). Accuracy and bias of predictions obtained in the validation population with the multi-breed training set were assessed by the coefficient of determination (R2) and by the regression coefficient of daughter yield deviations of validation bulls on their predicted genomic breeding values, respectively. Results The genetic variation captured by the markers for each trait was similar to that estimated for routine pedigree-based genetic evaluation. Posterior means for rg ranged from −0.01 for fertility between Montbéliarde and Normande to 0.79 for milk yield between Montbéliarde and Holstein. Differences in R2 between the three scenarios were notable only for fat content in the Montbéliarde breed: from 0.27 in scenario (1) to 0.33 in scenarios (2) and (3). Accuracies for fertility were lower than for other traits. Conclusions Using a multi-breed reference population resulted in small or no increases in accuracy. Only the breed with a small data set and large genetic correlation with the breed with a large data set showed increased accuracy for the traits with moderate (milk) to high (fat content) heritability. No benefit was observed for fertility, a lowly heritable trait. PMID:23216664

Development and application of a crossbreeding simulation model for goat production systems in tropical regions.

PubMed

Tsukahara, Y; Oishi, K; Hirooka, H

2011-12-01

A deterministic simulation model was developed to estimate biological production efficiency and to evaluate goat crossbreeding systems under tropical conditions. The model involves 5 production systems: pure indigenous, first filial generations (F1), backcross (BC), composite breeds of F1 (CMP(F1)), and BC (CMP(BC)). The model first simulates growth, reproduction, lactation, and energy intakes of a doe and a kid on a 1-d time step at the individual level and thereafter the outputs are integrated into the herd dynamics program. The ability of the model to simulate individual performances was tested under a base situation. The simulation results represented daily BW changes, ME requirements, and milk yield and the estimates were within the range of published data. Two conventional goat production scenarios (an intensive milk production scenario and an integrated goat and oil palm production scenario) in Malaysia were examined. The simulation results of the intensive milk production scenario showed the greater production efficiency of the CMP(BC) and CMP(F1) systems and decreased production efficiency of the F1 and BC systems. The results of the integrated goat and oil palm production scenario showed that the production efficiency and stocking rate were greater for the indigenous goats than for the crossbreeding systems.

Excitation functions for 7Be, 22,24Na production in Mg and Al by deuteron irradiations up to 50 MeV.

PubMed

Hermanne, A; Takács, S; Tárkányi, F; Adam-Rebeles, R; Ignatyuk, A

2012-12-01

New experimental data for production of (7)Be and (22,24)Na in deuteron irradiation of (nat)Mg and Al up to 50 MeV are presented. The induced activity, measured with HPGe spectroscopy, allows us to determine excitation functions of (nat)Mg(d,x) and (27)Al(d,x) reactions involved in the activation process with reference to (nat)Ti(d,x)(48)V monitor cross sections. A comparison with experimental literature values and results from updated theoretical codes is discussed. Thick target yields were derived from fits to our cross-sections and integrated personnel dose was calculated for different irradiation cycles and exposure scenarios around high power deuteron accelerator facilities. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Impacts of a 2-Degree Rise in Global Temperatures upon Gas-Phase Air Pollutants in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Laura; Josse, Béatrice; Marecal, Virginie; Lacressonnière, Gwendoline; Vautard, Robert; Gauss, Michael; Engardt, Magnuz; Nyiri, Agnes; Siour, Guillaume

2014-05-01

The 15th session of the Conference of Parties (COP 15) in 2009 ratified the Copenhagen Accord, which "recognises the scientific view that" global temperature rise should be held below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels in order to limit the impacts of climate change. Due to the fact that a 2-degree limit has been frequently referred to by policy makers in the context of the Copenhagen Accord and many other high-level policy statements, it is important that the impacts of this 2-degree increase in temperature are adequately analysed. To this end, the European Union sponsored the project IMPACT2C, which uses a multi-disciplinary international team to assess a wide variety of impacts of a 2-degree rise in global temperatures. For example, this future increase in temperature is expected to have a significant influence upon meteorological conditions such as temperature, precipitation, and wind direction and intensity; which will in turn affect the production, deposition, and distribution of air pollutants. For the first part of the air quality analysis within the IMPACT2C project, the impact of meteorological forcings on gas phase air pollutants over Europe was studied using four offline atmospheric chemistry transport models. Two sets of meteorological forcings were used for each model: reanalysis of past observation data and global climate model output. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors for the year 2005 were used for all simulations in order to isolate the impact of meteorology and assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The differences between the simulations that use reanalysis of past observation data and the simulations that use global climate model output show how global climate models modify climate hindcasts by boundary conditions inputs: information that is necessary in order to interpret simulations of future climate. The baseline results were assessed by comparison with AirBase (Version 7) measurement data, and were then used as a reference for an analysis of future climate scenarios upon European air quality. The future scenarios included two types of emission data for the year 2050: one set of emission data corresponding to a current legislation scenario and another corresponding to a scenario with a maximum feasible reduction in emissions. The future scenarios were run for the time period that corresponds to a 2-degree increase in global temperatures; a time period that varies depending on which global climate model is used. In order to calculate the effect of climate change on emission reduction scenarios, the "climate penalty", the future simulations were compared to a simulation using the same future emissions but with current (2005) climate. Results show that climate change will have consequential impacts with regards to the production and geographical distribution of ozone and nitrogen oxides.

An ecological perspective of the energy basis of sustainable Bolivian natural resources: Forests and natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izursa, Jose-Luis

Bolivia, traditionally known for being a country rich in natural resources, has suffered from a constant exploitation of its natural resources benefiting only small groups in and outside the country. The devastation of natural resources that occurred for many years was of concern to the latest government, rural communities and indigenous groups. As a result, Bolivia has a more sustainability-oriented forest law that has a strong orientation towards the utilization of natural resources at a national level and encompasses a fast-growing forestry industry than in previous years. In this dissertation, the wealth of Bolivia's national system was evaluated using solar emergy. Emergy (spelled with "m") is the sum of all energy of one form needed to develop a flow of energy of another form, over a period of time. The basic idea is that solar energy is our ultimate energy source and by expressing the value of products in solar emergy units, it becomes possible to compare different kinds of energy, allowing to express the value for the natural resources in Emergy Dollars. It was found out that Bolivia relies heavily in its natural resources and that its emergy exchange ratio with its international trading partners changed from 12.2 to 1 in 2001 to 6.2 to 1 in 2005. This means that Bolivia went from export 12.2 emdollars of goods for each 1 it received in 2001 to export 6.2 emdollars of products for each 1 it received in 2005. The study also showed that under forest certification practices less emergy is removed from forests (1.49E+19 sej/yr) compared to the amount of emergy removed (2.36E+19 sej/yr) under traditional uncertified practices, reflecting that forest ecology does better under certification. The "Ecologically-based Development for the Bolivian Industrial Forestry System" (DEBBIF) simulation model constructed during this study, compared four different scenarios: the Reference Scenario, the Increased Export Scenario, the Increased Domestic Use Scenario and the National Industrialization Scenario. Using two different levels of increment for each scenario, the outcomes of six variables were analyzed: soil, wood, natural gas, assets, money and debt. It was found that if the country doubles its use of natural resources to generate finished products, this will build more assets for Bolivia, and represent more income for the country and a better rate of emergy per person.

Techno-economic and environmental assessment of biogas production from banana peel (Musa paradisiaca) in a biorefinery concept.

PubMed

Martínez-Ruano, Jimmy Anderson; Caballero-Galván, Ashley Sthefanía; Restrepo-Serna, Daissy Lorena; Cardona, Carlos Ariel

2018-04-07

Two scenarios for the biogas production using Banana Peel as raw material were evaluated. The first scenario involves the stand-alone production of biogas and the second scenario includes the biogas production together with other products under biorefinery concept. In both scenarios, the influence of the production scale on the process economy was assessed and feasibility limits were defined. For this purpose, the mass and energy balances were established using the software Aspen Plus along with kinetic models reported in the literature. The economic and environmental analysis of the process was performed considering Colombian economic conditions. As a result, it was found that different process scales showed great potential for biogas production. Thus, plants with greater capacity have a greater economic benefit than those with lower capacity. However, this benefit leads to high-energy consumption and greater environmental impact.

Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, J.

2013-12-01

A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a scenario with at least 8.5 Wm-2. To address this problem each SSP scenario can be treated as a reference scenario, to which emissions mitigation policies can be applied to create a set of RCP replications. These RCP replications have the underlying SSP socio-economic assumptions in addition to policy assumptions and radiative forcing levels consistent with the CMIP5 products. We report quantitative results of initial experiments from the five participating groups.

Considering Time in Orthophotography Production: from a General Workflow to a Shortened Workflow for a Faster Disaster Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, G.

2015-08-01

This article overall deals with production time with orthophoto imagery with medium size digital frame camera. The workflow examination follows two main parts: data acquisition and post-processing. The objectives of the research are fourfold: 1/ gathering time references for the most important steps of orthophoto production (it turned out that literature is missing on this topic); these figures are used later for total production time estimation; 2/ identifying levers for reducing orthophoto production time; 3/ building a simplified production workflow for emergency response: less exigent with accuracy and faster; and compare it to a classical workflow; 4/ providing methodical elements for the estimation of production time with a custom project. In the data acquisition part a comprehensive review lists and describes all the factors that may affect the acquisition efficiency. Using a simulation with different variables (average line length, time of the turns, flight speed) their effect on acquisition efficiency is quantitatively examined. Regarding post-processing, the time references figures were collected from the processing of a 1000 frames case study with 15 cm GSD covering a rectangular area of 447 km2; the time required to achieve each step during the production is written down. When several technical options are possible, each one is tested and time documented so as all alternatives are available. Based on a technical choice with the workflow and using the compiled time reference of the elementary steps, a total time is calculated for the post-processing of the 1000 frames. Two scenarios are compared as regards to time and accuracy. The first one follows the "normal" practices, comprising triangulation, orthorectification and advanced mosaicking methods (feature detection, seam line editing and seam applicator); the second is simplified and make compromise over positional accuracy (using direct geo-referencing) and seamlines preparation in order to achieve orthophoto production faster. The shortened workflow reduces the production time by more than three whereas the positional error increases from 1 GSD to 1.5 GSD. The examination of time allocation through the production process shows that it is worth sparing time in the post-processing phase.

Constraints on black hole remnants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Giddings, S.B.

1994-01-15

One possible fate of information lost to black holes is its preservation in black hole remnants. It is argued that a type of effective field theory describes such remnants (generically referred to as informons). The general structure of such a theory is investigated and the infinite pair production problem is revisited. A toy model for remnants clarifies some of the basic issues; in particular, infinite remnant production is not suppressed simply by the large internal volumes as proposed in cornucopion scenarios. Criteria for avoiding infinite production are stated in terms of couplings in the effective theory. Such instabilities remain amore » problem barring what would be described in that theory as a strong coupling conspiracy. The relation to Euclidean calculations of cornucopion production is sketched, and potential flaws in that analysis are outlined. However, it is quite plausible that pair production of ordinary black holes (e.g., Reissner-Noerdstrom or others) is suppressed due to strong effective couplings. It also remains an open possibility that a microsopic dynamics can be found yielding an appropriate strongly coupled effective theory of neutral informons without infinite pair production.« less

A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

PubMed

Almahayni, T

2014-12-01

The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ESTIMATION OF EXPOSURE DOSES FOR THE SAFE MANAGEMENT OF NORM WASTE DISPOSAL.

PubMed

Jeong, Jongtae; Ko, Nak Yul; Cho, Dong-Keun; Baik, Min Hoon; Yoon, Ki-Hoon

2018-03-16

Naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) wastes with different radiological characteristics are generated in several industries. The appropriate options for NORM waste management including disposal options should be discussed and established based on the act and regulation guidelines. Several studies calculated the exposure dose and mass of NORM waste to be disposed in landfill site by considering the activity concentration level and exposure dose. In 2012, the Korean government promulgated an act on the safety control of NORM around living environments to protect human health and the environment. For the successful implementation of this act, we suggest a reference design for a landfill for the disposal of NORM waste. Based on this reference landfill, we estimate the maximum exposure doses and the relative impact of each pathway to exposure dose for three scenarios: a reference scenario, an ingestion pathway exclusion scenario, and a low leach rate scenario. Also, we estimate the possible quantity of NORM waste disposal into a landfill as a function of the activity concentration level of U series, Th series and 40K and two kinds of exposure dose levels, 1 and 0.3 mSv/y. The results of this study can be used to support the establishment of technical bases of the management strategy for the safe disposal of NORM waste.

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

2017-08-01

Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

Agricultural Baseline (BL0) scenario of the 2016 Billion-Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee, APAC] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the reference case for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios. The agricultural baseline runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used. Date the data set was last modified: 02/12/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: simulation was developed without offering a farmgate price to energy crops or residues (i.e., building on both the USDA 2015 baseline and the agricultural census data (USDA NASS 2014). Data generated are .txt output files by year, simulation identifier, county code (1-3109). Instruments used: POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B) supplied by the University of Tennessee APAC The quality assurance and quality control that have been applied: • Check for negative planted area, harvested area, production, yield and cost values. • Check if harvested area exceeds planted area for annuals. • Check FIPS codes.

Feasibility studies towards future self-sufficient supply of the 99Mo-99mTc isotopes with Japanese accelerators

PubMed Central

NAKAI, Kozi; TAKAHASHI, Naruto; HATAZAWA, Jun; SHINOHARA, Atsushi; HAYASHI, Yoshihiko; IKEDA, Hayato; KANAI, Yasukazu; WATABE, Tadashi; FUKUDA, Mitsuhiro; HATANAKA, Kichiji

2014-01-01

In order to establish a self-sufficient supply of 99mTc, we studied feasibilities to produce its parent nucleus, 99Mo, using Japanese accelerators. The daughter nucleus, 99mTc, is indispensable for medical diagnosis. 99Mo has so far been imported from abroad, which is separated from fission products generated in nuclear reactors using enriched 235U fuel. We investigated 99mTc production possibilities based on the following three scenarios: (1) 99Mo production by the (n, 2n) reaction by spallation neutrons at the J-PARC injector, LINAC; (2) 99Mo production by the (p, pn) reaction at Ep = 50–80 MeV proton at the RCNP cyclotron; (3) 99mTc direct production with a 20 MeV proton beam from the PET cyclotron. Among these three scenarios, scenario (1) is for a scheme on a global scale, scenario (2) works in a local area, and both cases take a long time for negotiations. Scenario (3) is attractive because we can use nearly 50 PET cyclotrons in Japan for 99mTc production. We here consider both the advantages and disadvantages among the three scenarios by taking account of the Japanese accelerator situation. PMID:25504230

EPA QUICK REFERENCE GUIDES

EPA Science Inventory

EPA Quick Reference Guides are compilations of information on chemical and biological terrorist agents. The information is presented in consistent format and includes agent characteristics, release scenarios, health and safety data, real-time field detection, effect levels, samp...

Employment references: defamation law in the clinical laboratory.

PubMed

Parks, D G

1993-01-01

The law of defamation and the risks involved in issuing employment references are discussed. A hypothetical scenario is used to illustrate the legal standards governing the tort of defamation and to apply those standards to employment references. Practical suggestions for a "controlled reference" policy are provided, with the objective of allowing for responsible exchange of employment information and avoiding a defamation lawsuit.

Towards an optimal adaptation of exposure to NOAA assessment methodology in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS): the challenges and the decision-making process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López de Ipiña, JM; Vaquero, C.; Gutierrez-Cañas, C.

2017-06-01

It is expected a progressive increase of the industrial processes that manufacture of intermediate (iNEPs) and end products incorporating ENMs (eNEPs) to bring about improved properties. Therefore, the assessment of occupational exposure to airborne NOAA will migrate, from the simple and well-controlled exposure scenarios in research laboratories and ENMs production plants using innovative production technologies, to much more complex exposure scenarios located around processes of manufacture of eNEPs that, in many cases, will be modified conventional production processes. Here will be discussed some of the typical challenging situations in the process of risk assessment of inhalation exposure to NOAA in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS), from the basis of the lessons learned when confronted to those scenarios in the frame of some European and Spanish research projects.

The Long-Term Budget Outlook

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

Revenues Under CBO’s Long-Term Budget Scenarios 56A-8. Real Gross Domestic Product Under CBO’s Long-Term Budget Scenarios 57A-9. Total Surplus or...scenarios suggest that total federal spending for Medicare and Medicaid in 2050 could range anywhere from 7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—a...see the Congressional Budget Office’s glossary of budgetary and economic terms, available at www.cbo.gov. 2. The future path of productivity growth

30 CFR 254.47 - Determining the volume of oil of your worst case discharge scenario.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... the daily discharge rate, you must consider reservoir characteristics, casing/production tubing sizes, and historical production and reservoir pressure data. Your scenario must discuss how to respond to... drilling operations, the size of your worst case discharge scenario is the daily volume possible from an...

An evaluation of climate change effects in estuarine salinity patterns: Application to Ria de Aveiro shallow water system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas, Catarina I. C.; Vaz, Nuno; Dias, João M.

2017-04-01

It is of global interest, for the definition of effective adaptation strategies, to make an assessment of climate change impacts in coastal environments. In this study, the salinity patterns adjustments and the correspondent Venice System zonations adaptations are evaluated through numerical modelling for Ria de Aveiro, a mesotidal shallow water lagoon located in the Portuguese coast, for the end of the 21st century in a climate change context. A reference (equivalent to present conditions) and three future scenarios are defined and simulated, both for wet and dry conditions. The future scenarios are designed with the following changes to the reference: scenario 1) projected mean sea level (MSL) rise; scenario 2) projected river flow discharges; and scenario 3) projections for both MSL and river flow discharges. The projections imposed are: a MSL rise of 0.42 m; a freshwater flow reduction of ∼22% for the wet season and a reduction of ∼87% for the dry season. Modelling results are analyzed for different tidal ranges. Results indicate: a) a salinity upstream intrusion and a generalized salinity increase for sea level rise scenario, with higher significance in middle-to-upper lagoon zones; b) a maximum salinity increase of ∼12 in scenario 3 and wet conditions for Espinheiro channel, the one with higher freshwater contribution; c) an upstream displacement of the saline fronts occurring in wet conditions for all future scenarios, with stronger expression for scenario 3, of ∼2 km in Espinheiro channel; and d) a landward progression of the saltier physical zones established in the Venice System scheme. The adaptation of the ecosystem to the upstream relocation of physical zones may be blocked by human settlements and other artificial barriers surrounding the estuarine environment.

Transport-related measures to mitigate climate change in Basel, Switzerland: A health-effectiveness comparison study.

PubMed

Perez, L; Trüeb, S; Cowie, H; Keuken, M P; Mudu, P; Ragettli, M S; Sarigiannis, D A; Tobollik, M; Tuomisto, J; Vienneau, D; Sabel, C; Künzli, N

2015-12-01

Local strategies to reduce green-house gases (GHG) imply changes of non-climatic exposure patterns. To assess the health impacts of locally relevant transport-related climate change policies in Basel, Switzerland. We modelled change in mortality and morbidity for the year 2020 based on several locally relevant transport scenarios including all decided transport policies up to 2020, additional realistic and hypothesized traffic reductions, as well as ambitious diffusion levels of electric cars. The scenarios were compared to the reference condition in 2010 assumed as status quo. The changes in non-climatic population exposure included ambient air pollution, physical activity, and noise. As secondary outcome, changes in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were put into perspective with predicted changes of CO2 emissions and fuel consumption. Under the scenario that assumed a strict particle emissions standard in diesel cars and all planned transport measures, 3% of premature deaths could be prevented from projected PM2.5 exposure reduction. A traffic reduction scenario assuming more active trips provided only minor added health benefits for any of the changes in exposure considered. A hypothetical strong support to electric vehicles diffusion would have the largest health effectiveness given that the energy production in Basel comes from renewable sources. The planned local transport related GHG emission reduction policies in Basel are sensible for mitigating climate change and improving public health. In this context, the most effective policy remains increasing zero-emission vehicles. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future Education: Learning the Future. Scenarios and Strategies in Europe. CEDEFOP Reference Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Wieringen, Fons; Sellin, Burkart; Schmidt, Ghislaine

Five research institutes covering five European Union (EU) member states and five Central and Eastern European countries participated in a scenario project designed to improve understanding of vocational education and training (VET) systems in their economic-technological, employment-labor, and training-knowledge environments. The participating…

Climate change impacts on freshwater fish, coral reefs, and related ecosystem services in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

We analyzed the potential physical and economic impacts of climate change on freshwater fisheries and coral reefs in the United States, examining a reference scenario and two policy scenarios that limit global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We modeled shifts in suitable habitat ...

Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

2011-01-01

The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Improving representation of canopy temperatures for modeling subcanopy incoming longwave radiation to the snow surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, Clare; Rutter, Nick; Jonas, Tobias

2017-09-01

A comprehensive analysis of canopy surface temperatures was conducted around a small and large gap at a forested alpine site in the Swiss Alps during the 2015 and 2016 snowmelt seasons (March-April). Canopy surface temperatures within the small gap were within 2-3°C of measured reference air temperature. Vertical and horizontal variations in canopy surface temperatures were greatest around the large gap, varying up to 18°C above measured reference air temperature during clear-sky days. Nighttime canopy surface temperatures around the study site were up to 3°C cooler than reference air temperature. These measurements were used to develop a simple parameterization for correcting reference air temperature for elevated canopy surface temperatures during (1) nighttime conditions (subcanopy shortwave radiation is 0 W m-2) and (2) periods of increased subcanopy shortwave radiation >400 W m-2 representing penetration of shortwave radiation through the canopy. Subcanopy shortwave and longwave radiation collected at a single point in the subcanopy over a 24 h clear-sky period was used to calculate a nighttime bulk offset of 3°C for scenario 1 and develop a multiple linear regression model for scenario 2 using reference air temperature and subcanopy shortwave radiation to predict canopy surface temperature with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.7°C. Outside of these two scenarios, reference air temperature was used to predict subcanopy incoming longwave radiation. Modeling at 20 radiometer locations throughout two snowmelt seasons using these parameterizations reduced the mean bias and RMSE to below 10 W m s-2 at all locations.

Micro-Logistics Analysis for Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cirillo, William; Stromgren, Chel; Galan, Ricardo

2008-01-01

Traditionally, logistics analysis for space missions has focused on the delivery of elements and goods to a destination. This type of logistics analysis can be referred to as "macro-logistics". While the delivery of goods is a critical component of mission analysis, it captures only a portion of the constraints that logistics planning may impose on a mission scenario. The other component of logistics analysis concerns the local handling of goods at the destination, including storage, usage, and disposal. This type of logistics analysis, referred to as "micro-logistics", may also be a primary driver in the viability of a human lunar exploration scenario. With the rigorous constraints that will be placed upon a human lunar outpost, it is necessary to accurately evaluate micro-logistics operations in order to develop exploration scenarios that will result in an acceptable level of system performance.

Assessment of riverine load of contaminants to European seas under policy implementation scenarios: an example with 3 pilot substances.

PubMed

Marinov, Dimitar; Pistocchi, Alberto; Trombetti, Marco; Bidoglio, Giovanni

2014-01-01

An evaluation of conventional emission scenarios is carried out targeting a possible impact of European Union (EU) policies on riverine loads to the European seas for 3 pilot pollutants: lindane, trifluralin, and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS). The policy scenarios are investigated to the time horizon of year 2020 starting from chemical-specific reference conditions and considering different types of regulatory measures including business as usual (BAU), current trend (CT), partial implementation (PI), or complete ban (PI ban) of emissions. The scenario analyses show that the model-estimated lindane load of 745 t to European seas in 1995, based on the official emission data, would be reduced by 98.3% to approximately 12.5 t in 2005 (BAU scenario), 10 years after the start of the EU regulation of this chemical. The CT and PI ban scenarios indicate a reduction of sea loads of lindane in 2020 by 74% and 95%, respectively, when compared to the BAU estimate. For trifluralin, an annual load of approximately 61.7 t is estimated for the baseline year 2003 (BAU scenario), although the applied conservative assumptions related to pesticide use data availability in Europe. Under the PI (ban) scenario, assuming only small residual emissions of trifluralin, we estimate a sea loading of approximately 0.07 t/y. For PFOS, the total sea load from all European countries is estimated at approximately 5.8 t/y referred to 2007 (BAU scenario). Reducing the total load of PFOS below 1 t/y requires emissions to be reduced by 84%. The analysis of conventional scenarios or scenario typologies for emissions of contaminants using simple spatially explicit GIS-based models is suggested as a viable, affordable exercise that may support the assessment of implementation of policies and the identification or negotiation of emission reduction targets. © 2013 SETAC.

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-10-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re-sampled quickly and cost-effectively for specific land-use change scenarios and future projections.

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-05-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3% and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasize that CO2 fertilisation and N cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of Decoupled Land-Use Change Scenarios (DLUCS): the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re-sampled quickly and cost-effectively for specific land-use change scenarios and future projections.

Long-term prospects for the environmental profile of advanced sugar cane ethanol.

PubMed

da Silva, Cinthia R U; Franco, Henrique Coutinho Junqueira; Junqueira, Tassia Lopes; van Oers, Lauran; van der Voet, Ester; Seabra, Joaquim E A

2014-10-21

This work assessed the environmental impacts of the production and use of 1 MJ of hydrous ethanol (E100) in Brazil in prospective scenarios (2020-2030), considering the deployment of technologies currently under development and better agricultural practices. The life cycle assessment technique was employed using the CML method for the life cycle impact assessment and the Monte Carlo method for the uncertainty analysis. Abiotic depletion, global warming, human toxicity, ecotoxicity, photochemical oxidation, acidification, and eutrophication were the environmental impacts categories analyzed. Results indicate that the proposed improvements (especially no-til farming-scenarios s2 and s4) would lead to environmental benefits in prospective scenarios compared to the current ethanol production (scenario s0). Combined first and second generation ethanol production (scenarios s3 and s4) would require less agricultural land but would not perform better than the projected first generation ethanol, although the uncertainties are relatively high. The best use of 1 ha of sugar cane was also assessed, considering the displacement of the conventional products by ethanol and electricity. No-til practices combined with the production of first generation ethanol and electricity (scenario s2) would lead to the largest mitigation effects for global warming and abiotic depletion. For the remaining categories, emissions would not be mitigated with the utilization of the sugar cane products. However, this conclusion is sensitive to the displaced electricity sources.

Under What Circumstances Do Wood Products from Native Forests Benefit Climate Change Mitigation?

PubMed

Keith, Heather; Lindenmayer, David; Macintosh, Andrew; Mackey, Brendan

2015-01-01

Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize fully the mitigation value of native forest conservation. Our analyses provide evidence for decision-making about the circumstances under which forest management provides mitigation benefits.

Under What Circumstances Do Wood Products from Native Forests Benefit Climate Change Mitigation?

PubMed Central

Keith, Heather; Lindenmayer, David; Macintosh, Andrew; Mackey, Brendan

2015-01-01

Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Conservation of native forests results in an immediate and substantial reduction in net emissions relative to a reference case of commercial harvesting. We calibrated models to simulate scenarios of native forest management for two Australian case studies: mixed-eucalypt in New South Wales and Mountain Ash in Victoria. Carbon stocks in the harvested forest included forest biomass, wood and paper products, waste in landfill, and bioenergy that substituted for fossil fuel energy. The conservation forest included forest biomass, and subtracted stocks for the foregone products that were substituted by non-wood products or plantation products. Total carbon stocks were lower in harvested forest than in conservation forest in both case studies over the 100-year simulation period. We tested a range of potential parameter values reported in the literature: none could increase the combined carbon stock in products, slash, landfill and substitution sufficiently to exceed the increase in carbon stock due to changing management of native forest to conservation. The key parameters determining carbon stock change under different forest management scenarios are those affecting accumulation of carbon in forest biomass, rather than parameters affecting transfers among wood products. This analysis helps prioritise mitigation activities to focus on maximising forest biomass. International forest-related policies, including negotiations under the UNFCCC, have failed to recognize fully the mitigation value of native forest conservation. Our analyses provide evidence for decision-making about the circumstances under which forest management provides mitigation benefits. PMID:26436916

'Underutilised' agricultural land: its definitions, potential use for future biomass production and its environmental implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, Saori; Bargiel, Damian

2017-04-01

A growing bioeconomy and increased demand for biomass products on food, health, fibre, industrial products and energy require land resources for feedstock production. It has resulted in significant environmental and socio-economic challenges on a global scale. As a result, consideration of such effects of land use change (LUC) from biomass production (particularly for biofuel feedstock) has emerged as an important area of policy and research, and several potential solutions have been proposed to minimise such adverse LUC effects. One of these solutions is the use of lands that are not in production or not suitable for food crop production, such as 'marginal', 'degraded', 'abandoned' and 'surplus' agricultural lands for future biomass production. The terms referring to these lands are usually associated with the potential production of 'marginal crops', which can grow in marginal conditions (e.g. poor soil fertility, low rainfall, drought) without much water and agrochemical inputs. In our research, we referred to these lands as 'underutilised' agricultural land and attempted to define them for our case study areas located in Australia and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our goal is to identify lands that can be used for future biomass production and to evaluate their environmental implications, particularly impacts related to biodiversity, water and soil at a landscape scale. The identification of these lands incorporates remote sensing and spatially explicit approaches. Our findings confirmed that there was no universal or single definition of the term 'underutilised' agricultural land as the definitions significantly vary by country and region depending not only on the biophysical environment but also political, institutional and socio-economic conditions. Moreover, our results highlighted that the environmental implications of production of biomass on 'underutilised' agricultural land for biomass production are highly controversial. Thus land use change scenarios with low-impact crops and production system must be designed for future biomass production taking into consideration climate, land use, local biophysical conditions and relevant policies (e.g. conservation) within a regional/ landscape planning framework.

Reference genes for normalization of qPCR assays in sugarcane plants under water deficit.

PubMed

de Andrade, Larissa Mara; Dos Santos Brito, Michael; Fávero Peixoto Junior, Rafael; Marchiori, Paulo Eduardo Ribeiro; Nóbile, Paula Macedo; Martins, Alexandre Palma Boer; Ribeiro, Rafael Vasconcelos; Creste, Silvana

2017-01-01

Sugarcane ( Saccharum spp.) is the main raw material for sugar and ethanol production. Among the abiotic stress, drought is the main one that negatively impact sugarcane yield. Although gene expression analysis through quantitative PCR (qPCR) has increased our knowledge about biological processes related to drought, gene network that mediates sugarcane responses to water deficit remains elusive. In such scenario, validation of reference gene is a major requirement for successful analyzes involving qPCR. In this study, candidate genes were tested for their suitable as reference genes for qPCR analyses in two sugarcane cultivars with varying drought tolerance. Eight candidate reference genes were evaluated in leaves sampled in plants subjected to water deficit in both field and greenhouse conditions. In addition, five genes were evaluated in shoot roots of plants subjected to water deficit by adding PEG8000 to the nutrient solution. NormFinder and RefFinder algorithms were used to identify the most stable gene(s) among genotypes and under different experimental conditions. Both algorithms revealed that in leaf samples, UBQ1 and GAPDH genes were more suitable as reference genes, whereas GAPDH was the best reference one in shoot roots. Reference genes suitable for sugarcane under water deficit were identified, which would lead to a more accurate and reliable analysis of qPCR. Thus, results obtained in this study may guide future research on gene expression in sugarcane under varying water conditions.

Impact of idealized future stratospheric aerosol injection on the large-scale ocean and land carbon cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjiputra, J. F.; Grini, A.; Lee, H.

2016-01-01

Using an Earth system model, we simulate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on top of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 future scenario. Our idealized method prescribes aerosol concentration, linearly increasing from 2020 to 2100, and thereafter remaining constant until 2200. In the aggressive scenario, the model projects a cooling trend toward 2100 despite warming that persists in the high latitudes. Following SAI termination in 2100, a rapid global warming of 0.35 K yr-1 is simulated in the subsequent 10 years, and the global mean temperature returns to levels close to the reference state, though roughly 0.5 K cooler. In contrast to earlier findings, we show a weak response in the terrestrial carbon sink during SAI implementation in the 21st century, which we attribute to nitrogen limitation. The SAI increases the land carbon uptake in the temperate forest-, grassland-, and shrub-dominated regions. The resultant lower temperatures lead to a reduction in the heterotrophic respiration rate and increase soil carbon retention. Changes in precipitation patterns are key drivers for variability in vegetation carbon. Upon SAI termination, the level of vegetation carbon storage returns to the reference case, whereas the soil carbon remains high. The ocean absorbs nearly 10% more carbon in the geoengineered simulation than in the reference simulation, leading to a ˜15 ppm lower atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100. The largest enhancement in uptake occurs in the North Atlantic. In both hemispheres' polar regions, SAI delays the sea ice melting and, consequently, export production remains low. In the deep water of North Atlantic, SAI-induced circulation changes accelerate the ocean acidification rate and broaden the affected area.

Solar power satellite system definition study, phase 2. Volume 2: Reference system description

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

System descriptions and cost estimates for the reference system of the solar power satellite program are presented. The reference system is divided into five principal elements: the solar power satellites; space construction and support; space and ground transportation; ground receiving stations; and operations control. The program scenario and non-recurring costs are briefly described.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cibin, Raj; Trybula, Elizabeth; Chaubey, Indrajeet

Cellulosic bioenergy feedstock such as perennial grasses and crop residues are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. Here, we used an improved version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to forecast impacts on watershed hydrology and water quality by implementing an array of plausible land-use changes associated with commercial bioenergy crop production for two watersheds in the Midwest USA. Watershed-scale impacts were estimated for 13 bioenergy crop production scenarios, including: production of Miscanthus 9 giganteus and upland Shawnee switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas and pastures, removal ofmore » corn stover and combinations of these options. We also measured water quality as erosion and sediment loading; this was forecasted to improve compared to baseline when perennial grasses were used for bioenergy production, but not with stover removal scenarios. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet was reduced between 0 and 8% across these bioenergy crop production scenarios compared to baseline across the study watersheds. Our results indicate that bioenergy production scenarios that incorporate perennial grasses reduced the nonpoint source pollutant load at the watershed outlet compared to the baseline conditions (0–20% for nitrate-nitrogen and 3–56% for mineral phosphorus); but, the reduction rates were specific to site characteristics and management practices.« less

Risk assessment for infants exposed to furan from ready-to-eat thermally processed food products in Poland.

PubMed

Minorczyk, Maria; Góralczyk, Katarzyna; Struciński, Paweł; Hernik, Agnieszka; Czaja, Katarzyna; Łyczewska, Monika; Korcz, Wojciech; Starski, Andrzej; Ludwicki, Jan K

2012-01-01

Thermal processes and long storage of food lead to reactions between reducing sugars and amino acids, or with ascorbic acid, carbohydrates or polyunsaturated fatty acids. As a result of these reactions, new compounds are created. One of these compounds having an adverse effect on human health is furan. The aim of this paper was to estimate the infants exposure to furan found in thermally processed jarred food products, as well as characterizing the risk by comparing the exposure to the reference dose (RfD) and calculating margins of exposure. The material consisted of 301 samples of thermally processed food for infants taken from the Polish market in years 2008 - 2010. The samples included vegetable-meat, vegetables and fruit jarred meals for infants and young children in which the furan levels were analyzed by GC/MS technique. The exposure to furan has been assessed for the 3, 4, 6, 9,12 months old infants using different consumption scenarios. The levels of furan ranged from <1 microg/kg (LOQ) to 166.9 microg/kg. The average furan concentration in all samples was 40.2 microg/kg. The estimated exposures, calculated with different nutrition scenarios, were in the range from 0.03 to 3.56 microg/kg bw/day and exceeded in some cases RfD set at level of 1 microg/kg bw/day. Margins of exposure (MOE) achieved values even below 300 for scenarios assuming higher consumption of vegetable and vegetable-meat products. The magnitude of exposure to furan present in ready-to-eat meals among Polish infants is similar to data reported previously in other European countries but slightly higher than indicated in the recent EFSA report. As for some cases the estimated intake exceeds the RfD, and MOE) values are much lower than 10000 indicating a potential health concern, it is necessary to continue monitoring of furan in jarred food and estimate of its intake by infants.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused by ozone was about 5.0-5.6% in the SSP2 scenario and 3.8-4.2% in the RCP scenario.

Accuracy of estimation of genomic breeding values in pigs using low-density genotypes and imputation.

PubMed

Badke, Yvonne M; Bates, Ronald O; Ernst, Catherine W; Fix, Justin; Steibel, Juan P

2014-04-16

Genomic selection has the potential to increase genetic progress. Genotype imputation of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes can improve the cost efficiency of genomic breeding value (GEBV) prediction for pig breeding. Consequently, the objectives of this work were to: (1) estimate accuracy of genomic evaluation and GEBV for three traits in a Yorkshire population and (2) quantify the loss of accuracy of genomic evaluation and GEBV when genotypes were imputed under two scenarios: a high-cost, high-accuracy scenario in which only selection candidates were imputed from a low-density platform and a low-cost, low-accuracy scenario in which all animals were imputed using a small reference panel of haplotypes. Phenotypes and genotypes obtained with the PorcineSNP60 BeadChip were available for 983 Yorkshire boars. Genotypes of selection candidates were masked and imputed using tagSNP in the GeneSeek Genomic Profiler (10K). Imputation was performed with BEAGLE using 128 or 1800 haplotypes as reference panels. GEBV were obtained through an animal-centric ridge regression model using de-regressed breeding values as response variables. Accuracy of genomic evaluation was estimated as the correlation between estimated breeding values and GEBV in a 10-fold cross validation design. Accuracy of genomic evaluation using observed genotypes was high for all traits (0.65-0.68). Using genotypes imputed from a large reference panel (accuracy: R(2) = 0.95) for genomic evaluation did not significantly decrease accuracy, whereas a scenario with genotypes imputed from a small reference panel (R(2) = 0.88) did show a significant decrease in accuracy. Genomic evaluation based on imputed genotypes in selection candidates can be implemented at a fraction of the cost of a genomic evaluation using observed genotypes and still yield virtually the same accuracy. On the other side, using a very small reference panel of haplotypes to impute training animals and candidates for selection results in lower accuracy of genomic evaluation.

Assessment of the efficiency and water productivity in the Spanish irrigation associations "Canal Toro-Zamora" and "Canal Villagonzalo" from the Duero basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Sinobas, Leonor; Amado Mendoza Hidalgo, Edwin

2017-04-01

Within a water scarcity scenario, the irrigated agriculture economic sector would be affected by the reduction on water supply and this might have a negative impact on the National gross income. Water for irrigation in Spain comprises the 75% of total consumption. Therefore, the search for irrigation strategies dealing with sustainable irrigation by saving water and improving the environment quality is encouraged. Within this framework the assessment of water use in the irrigation districts to assist water stakeholder decisions is reinforced. Water resources can be assessed at field scheme or regional scale by analyzing the water use efficiency and the water productivity indicators. Which determine the water availability and the water supply quality in irrigation areas. Among then, the following are broadly used: water productivity WP, and irrigation water productivity IWP, annual relative water supply (ARWS) and the annual relative irrigation water supply (ARIS). Keeping in mind the water scarcity scenario for irrigation in the short and long term and the probably scenario of water allocation for different uses following criteria of efficiency and productivity, this work is aimed at assessing the water use efficiency and water productivity of two modernized Spanish irrigation districts CCRRs: "Canal Toro-Zamora" and "Canal Villagonzalo" from the Duero basin. For that purpose, the above indicators were estimated for years 2014 and 2015. Crop water requirements are needed to calculate the indicators. For this study, maize was chosen since it is the major crop in the area and its water needs were estimated with the FAO program Cropwat. Local crop coefficients (Kc) were determined with the open access application SpiderWebGis (http://maps.spiderwebgis.org/webgis/) which uses satelital images to monitor Kc coefficients in all crops across Spain. In both CCRRs the maize Kc coefficients were similar for all the phenology stages although a slightly spatial variability was observed. Likewise, water use efficiency was good (ARIS = 1) and the other indicators behave reasonably highlighting a good irrigation management. Thus, these indicators, and the methodology proposed to estimate kc, could assist water stakeholder decisions for water management strategies at the irrigation district. Moreover, the results could be references for benchmarking at regional, national or international level.

The use of engineering design scenarios to assess student knowledge of global, societal, economic, and environmental contexts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenna, Ann F.; Hynes, Morgan M.; Johnson, Amy M.; Carberry, Adam R.

2016-07-01

Product archaeology as an educational approach asks engineering students to consider and explore the broader societal and global impacts of a product's manufacturing, distribution, use, and disposal on people, economics, and the environment. This study examined the impact of product archaeology in a project-based engineering design course on student attitudes and perceptions about engineering and abilities to extend and refine knowledge about broader contexts. Two design scenarios were created: one related to dental hygiene and one related to vaccination delivery. Design scenarios were used to (1) assess knowledge of broader contexts, and (2) test variability of student responses across different contextual situations. Results from pre- to post-surveying revealed improved student perceptions of knowledge of broader contexts. Significant differences were observed between the two design scenarios. The findings support the assumption that different design scenarios elicit consideration of different contexts and design scenarios can be constructed to target specific contextual considerations.

Mobile, Collaborative Situated Knowledge Creation for Urban Planning

PubMed Central

Zurita, Gustavo; Baloian, Nelson

2012-01-01

Geo-collaboration is an emerging research area in computer sciences studying the way spatial, geographically referenced information and communication technologies can support collaborative activities. Scenarios in which information associated to its physical location are of paramount importance are often referred as Situated Knowledge Creation scenarios. To date there are few computer systems supporting knowledge creation that explicitly incorporate physical context as part of the knowledge being managed in mobile face-to-face scenarios. This work presents a collaborative software application supporting visually-geo-referenced knowledge creation in mobile working scenarios while the users are interacting face-to-face. The system allows to manage data information associated to specific physical locations for knowledge creation processes in the field, such as urban planning, identifying specific physical locations, territorial management, etc.; using Tablet-PCs and GPS in order to geo-reference data and information. It presents a model for developing mobile applications supporting situated knowledge creation in the field, introducing the requirements for such an application and the functionalities it should have in order to fulfill them. The paper also presents the results of utility and usability evaluations. PMID:22778639

Mobile, collaborative situated knowledge creation for urban planning.

PubMed

Zurita, Gustavo; Baloian, Nelson

2012-01-01

Geo-collaboration is an emerging research area in computer sciences studying the way spatial, geographically referenced information and communication technologies can support collaborative activities. Scenarios in which information associated to its physical location are of paramount importance are often referred as Situated Knowledge Creation scenarios. To date there are few computer systems supporting knowledge creation that explicitly incorporate physical context as part of the knowledge being managed in mobile face-to-face scenarios. This work presents a collaborative software application supporting visually-geo-referenced knowledge creation in mobile working scenarios while the users are interacting face-to-face. The system allows to manage data information associated to specific physical locations for knowledge creation processes in the field, such as urban planning, identifying specific physical locations, territorial management, etc.; using Tablet-PCs and GPS in order to geo-reference data and information. It presents a model for developing mobile applications supporting situated knowledge creation in the field, introducing the requirements for such an application and the functionalities it should have in order to fulfill them. The paper also presents the results of utility and usability evaluations.

[Effects of sampling plot number on tree species distribution prediction under climate change].

PubMed

Liang, Yu; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Li, Xiao-Na; Luo, Xu

2013-05-01

Based on the neutral landscapes under different degrees of landscape fragmentation, this paper studied the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale under climate change. The tree species distribution was predicted by the coupled modeling approach which linked an ecosystem process model with a forest landscape model, and three contingent scenarios and one reference scenario of sampling plot numbers were assumed. The differences between the three scenarios and the reference scenario under different degrees of landscape fragmentation were tested. The results indicated that the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution depended on the tree species life history attributes. For the generalist species, the prediction of their distribution at landscape scale needed more plots. Except for the extreme specialist, landscape fragmentation degree also affected the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction. With the increase of simulation period, the effects of sampling plot number on the prediction of tree species distribution at landscape scale could be changed. For generalist species, more plots are needed for the long-term simulation.

Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson; Raymond Drapeck

2008-01-01

The response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change was simulated for California using the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined, and increases in the productivity of evergreen hardwoods led to the displacement of Evergreen Conifer Forest by Mixed...

Projected Salt Waste Production from a Commercial Pyroprocessing Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simpson, Michael F.

Pyroprocessing of used nuclear fuel inevitably produces salt waste from electrorefining and/or oxide reduction unit operations. Various process design characteristics can affect the actual mass of such waste produced. This paper examines both oxide and metal fuel treatment, estimates the amount of salt waste generated, and assesses potential benefit of process options to mitigate the generation of salt waste. For reference purposes, a facility is considered in which 100 MT/year of fuel is processed. Salt waste estimates range from 8 to 20 MT/year from considering numerous scenarios. It appears that some benefit may be derived from advanced processes for separatingmore » fission products from molten salt waste, but the degree of improvement is limited. Waste form production is also considered but appears to be economically unfavorable. Direct disposal of salt into a salt basin type repository is found to be the most promising with respect to minimizing the impact of waste generation on the economic feasibility and sustainability of pyroprocessing.« less

Benefits of Mars ISRU Regolith Water Processing: A Case Study for the NASA Evolvable Mars Campaign

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleinhenz, Julie; Paz, Aaron; Mueller, Robert

2016-01-01

ISRU of Mars resources was baselined in 2009 Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0, but only for Oxygen production using atmospheric CO2. The Methane (LCH4) needed for ascent propulsion of the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) would need to be brought from Earth. However: Extracting water from the Martian Regolith enables the production of both Oxygen and Methane from Mars resources: Water resources could also be used for other applications including: Life support, radiation shielding, plant growth, etc. Water extraction was not baselined in DRA5.0 due to perceived difficulties and complexity in processing regolith. The NASA Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) requested studies to look at the quantitative benefits and trades of using Mars water ISRUPhase 1: Examined architecture scenarios for regolith water retrieval. Completed October 2015. Phase 2: Deep dive of one architecture concept to look at end-to-end system size, mass, power of a LCH4/LO2 ISRU production system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chianese, Marco; Merle, Alexander, E-mail: chianese@na.infn.it, E-mail: amerle@mpp.mpg.de

The high energy events observed at the IceCube Neutrino Observatory have triggered many investigations interpreting the highly energetic neutrinos detected as decay products of heavy unstable Dark Matter particles. However, while very detailed treatments of the IceCube phenomenology exist, only a few references focus on the (non-trivial) Dark Matter production part—and all of those rely on relatively complicated new models which are not always testable directly. We instead investigate two of the most minimal scenarios possible, where the operator responsible for the IceCube events is directly involved in Dark Matter production. We show that the simplest (four-dimensional) operator is notmore » powerful enough to accommodate all constraints. A more non-minimal setting (at mass dimension six), however, can do both fitting all the data and also allowing for a comparatively small parameter space only, parts of which can be in reach of future observations. We conclude that minimalistic approaches can be enough to explain all data required, while complicated new physics seems not to be required by IceCube.« less

Reference scenarios for deforestation and forest degradation in support of REDD: a review of data and methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olander, Lydia P.; Gibbs, Holly K.; Steininger, Marc; Swenson, Jennifer J.; Murray, Brian C.

2008-04-01

Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to compensate tropical forest nations for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). These proposals have the potential to include developing countries more actively in international greenhouse gas mitigation and to address a substantial share of the world's emissions which come from tropical deforestation. For such a policy to be viable it must have a credible benchmark against which emissions reduction can be calculated. This benchmark, sometimes termed a baseline or reference emissions scenario, can be based directly on historical emissions or can use historical emissions as input for business as usual projections. Here, we review existing data and methods that could be used to measure historical deforestation and forest degradation reference scenarios including FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations) national statistics and various remote sensing sources. The freely available and corrected global Landsat imagery for 1990, 2000 and soon to come for 2005 may be the best primary data source for most developing countries with other coarser resolution high frequency or radar data as a valuable complement for addressing problems with cloud cover and for distinguishing larger scale degradation. While sampling of imagery has been effectively useful for pan-tropical and continental estimates of deforestation, wall-to-wall (or full coverage) allows more detailed assessments for measuring national-level reference emissions. It is possible to measure historical deforestation with sufficient certainty for determining reference emissions, but there must be continued calls at the international level for making high-resolution imagery available, and for financial and technical assistance to help countries determine credible reference scenarios. The data available for past years may not be sufficient for assessing all forms of forest degradation, but new data sources will have greater potential in 2007 and after. This paper focuses only on the methods for measuring changes in forest area, but this information must be coupled with estimates of change in forest carbon stocks in order to quantify emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.

Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

2012-12-01

Low carbon energy technologies are gaining increasing importance in India for reducing emissions as well as diversifying its energy supply mix. The present paper presents and analyses a targeted approach for pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies in the Indian energy market. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements and expert opinion. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario it is found that in the long run all solar, wind and nuclear will achieve their targets without any subsidy push.more » In the short run however, nuclear and solar energy require significant subsidy push. Nuclear energy requires a much higher subsidy allocation as compared to solar because the targets assumed are also higher for nuclear energy. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies significantly. Still subsidy is required especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. It is also found that pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies might lead to decrease in share of CCS under the price scenario and biomass under both BAU and price scenario, which implies that one set of low carbon technologies is substituted by other set of low carbon technologies. Thus the objective of emission mitigation might not be achieved due to this substitution. Moreover sensitivity on nuclear energy cost was done to represent risk mitigation for this technology and it was found that higher cost can significantly decrease the share of this technology under both the BAU and carbon price scenario.« less

Economic assessment of an emerging disease: the case of Schmallenberg virus in France.

PubMed

Waret-Szkuta, A; Alarcon, P; Hasler, B; Rushton, J; Corbière, F; Raboisson, D

2017-04-01

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was first detected in 2011 in Germany and then in France in 2012. This study simulates the production of different ruminant systems in France and estimates, through partial budget analyses, the economic cost of SBV at the farm level, under two disease scenarios (a high-impact and low-impact scenario). A partial budget is used to evaluate the financial effect of incremental changes, and includes only resources or production that will be changed. In the high-impact scenario, the estimated impact of SBV ranged from €23 to €43 per cow per year and €19 to €37 per ewe per year. In the low-impact scenario, it was approximately half (for cows) or one-third (for ewes) of this amount. These financial impacts represent 0.6% to 63% of the gross margin, depending on the chosen scenario and the livestock system being considered. The impacts of SBV come mainly from: the extra costs from purchasing and raising replacement heifers and losses in milk production (dairy cows); the losses in calf or lamb production (beef systems and meat sheep); and the losses in milk production and from unsold replacement lambs (dairy sheep). The use of integrated production and economic models enabled the authors to estimate the cost of SBV and to tackle the problem of scarce data, which is a difficulty for most emerging diseases, by their very nature. It also allowed the authors to develop an accurate disease impact assessment for several production systems, over a short time span. Extrapolating from this economic assessment to predict the scenario in coming years depends on the immunity period of the disease and the length of the production cycles.

Can productivity and profitability be enhanced in intensively managed cereal systems while reducing the environmental footprint of production? Assessing sustainable intensification options in the breadbasket of India.

PubMed

Kumar, Virender; Jat, Hanuman S; Sharma, Parbodh C; Balwinder-Singh; Gathala, Mahesh K; Malik, Ram K; Kamboj, Baldev R; Yadav, Arvind K; Ladha, Jagdish K; Raman, Anitha; Sharma, D K; McDonald, Andrew

2018-01-15

In the most productive area of the Indo-Gangetic Plains in Northwest India where high yields of rice and wheat are commonplace, a medium-term cropping system trial was conducted in Haryana State. The goal of the study was to identify integrated management options for further improving productivity and profitability while rationalizing resource use and reducing environmental externalities (i.e., "sustainable intensification", SI) by drawing on the principles of diversification, precision management, and conservation agriculture. Four scenarios were evaluated: Scenario 1 - "business-as-usual" [conventional puddled transplanted rice (PTR) followed by ( fb ) conventional-till wheat]; Scenario 2 - reduced tillage with opportunistic diversification and precision resource management [PTR fb zero-till (ZT) wheat fb ZT mungbean]; Scenario 3 - ZT for all crops with opportunistic diversification and precision resource management [ZT direct-seeded rice (ZT-DSR) fb ZT wheat fb ZT mungbean]; and Scenario 4 - ZT for all crops with strategic diversification and precision resource management [ZT maize fb ZT wheat fb ZT mungbean]. Results of this five-year study strongly suggest that, compared with business-as-usual practices, SI strategies that incorporate multi-objective yield, economic, and environmental criteria can be more productive when used in these production environments. For Scenarios 2, 3, and 4, system-level increases in productivity (10-17%) and profitability (24-50%) were observed while using less irrigation water (15-71% reduction) and energy (17-47% reduction), leading to 15-30% lower global warming potential (GWP), with the ranges reflecting the implications of specific innovations. Scenario 3, where early wheat sowing was combined with ZT along with no puddling during the rice phase, resulted in a 13% gain in wheat yield compared with Scenario 2. A similar gain in wheat yield was observed in Scenario 4 vis-à-vis Scenario 2. Compared to Scenario 1, wheat yields in Scenarios 3 and 4 were 15-17% higher, whereas, in Scenario 2, yield was either similar in normal years or higher in warmer years. During the rainy ( kharif ) season, ZT-DSR provided yields similar to or higher than those of PTR in the first three years and lower (11-30%) in Years 4 and 5, a result that provides a note of caution for interpreting technology performance through short-term trials or simply averaging results over several years. The resource use and economic and environmental advantages of DSR were more stable through time, including reductions in irrigation water (22-40%), production cost (11-17%), energy inputs (13-34%), and total GWP (14-32%). The integration of "best practices" in PTR in Scenario 2 resulted in reductions of 24% in irrigation water and 21% in GWP, with a positive impact on yield (0.9 t/ha) and profitability compared to conventional PTR, demonstrating the power of simple management changes to generate improved SI outcomes. When ZT maize was used as a diversification option instead of rice in Scenario 4, reductions in resource use jumped to 82-89% for irrigation water and 49-66% for energy inputs, with 13-40% lower GWP, similar or higher rice equivalent yield, and higher profitability (27-73%) in comparison to the rice-based scenarios. Despite these advantages, maize value chains are not robust in this part of India and public procurement is absent. Results do demonstrate that transformative opportunities exist to break the cycle of stagnating yields and inefficient resource use in the most productive cereal-based cropping systems of South Asia. However, these SI entry points need to be placed in the context of the major drivers of change in the region, including market conditions, risks, and declining labor availability, and matching with the needs and interests of different types of farmers.

Dual Mission Scenarios for the Human Lunar Campaign - Performance, Cost and Risk Benefits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saucillo, Rudolph J.; Reeves, David M.; Chrone, Jonathan D.; Stromgren, Chel; Reeves, John D.; North, David D.

2008-01-01

Scenarios for human lunar operations with capabilities significantly beyond Constellation Program baseline missions are potentially feasible based on the concept of dual, sequential missions utilizing a common crew and a single Ares I/CEV (Crew Exploration Vehicle). For example, scenarios possible within the scope of baseline technology planning include outpost-based sortie missions and dual sortie missions. Top level cost benefits of these dual sortie scenarios may be estimated by comparison to the Constellation Program reference two-mission-per-year lunar campaign. The primary cost benefit is the accomplishment of Mission B with a "single launch solution" since no Ares I launch is required. Cumulative risk to the crew is lowered since crew exposure to launch risks and Earth return risks are reduced versus comparable Constellation Program reference two-mission-per-year scenarios. Payload-to-the-lunar-surface capability is substantially increased in the Mission B sortie as a result of additional propellant available for Lunar Lander #2 descent. This additional propellant is a result of EDS #2 transferring a smaller stack through trans-lunar injection and using remaining propellant to perform a portion of the lunar orbit insertion (LOI) maneuver. This paper describes these dual mission concepts, including cost, risk and performance benefits per lunar sortie site, and provides an initial feasibility assessment.

Bioenergy production and forest landscape change in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer K.; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2016-01-01

Production of woody biomass for bioenergy, whether wood pellets or liquid biofuels, has the potential to cause substantial landscape change and concomitant effects on forest ecosystems, but the landscape effects of alternative production scenarios have not been fully assessed. We simulated landscape change from 2010 to 2050 under five scenarios of woody biomass production for wood pellets and liquid biofuels in North Carolina, in the southeastern United States, a region that is a substantial producer of wood biomass for bioenergy and contains high biodiversity. Modeled scenarios varied biomass feedstocks, incorporating harvest of ‘conventional’ forests, which include naturally regenerating as well as planted forests that exist on the landscape even without bioenergy production, as well as purpose-grown woody crops grown on marginal lands. Results reveal trade-offs among scenarios in terms of overall forest area and the characteristics of the remaining forest in 2050. Meeting demand for biomass from conventional forests resulted in more total forest land compared with a baseline, business-as-usual scenario. However, the remaining forest was composed of more intensively managed forest and less of the bottomland hardwood and longleaf pine habitats that support biodiversity. Converting marginal forest to purpose-grown crops reduced forest area, but the remaining forest contained more of the critical habitats for biodiversity. Conversion of marginal agricultural lands to purpose-grown crops resulted in smaller differences from the baseline scenario in terms of forest area and the characteristics of remaining forest habitats. Each scenario affected the dominant type of land-use change in some regions, especially in the coastal plain that harbors high levels of biodiversity. Our results demonstrate the complex landscape effects of alternative bioenergy scenarios, highlight that the regions most likely to be affected by bioenergy production are also critical for biodiversity, and point to the challenges associated with evaluating bioenergy sustainability.

The water footprint of agricultural products in European river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanham, D.; Bidoglio, G.

2014-05-01

This work quantifies the agricultural water footprint (WF) of production (WFprod, agr) and consumption (WFcons, agr) and the resulting net virtual water import (netVWi, agr) of 365 European river basins for a reference period (REF, 1996-2005) and two diet scenarios (a healthy diet based upon food-based dietary guidelines (HEALTHY) and a vegetarian (VEG) diet). In addition to total (tot) amounts, a differentiation is also made between the green (gn), blue (bl) and grey (gy) components. River basins where the REF WFcons, agr, tot exceeds the WFprod, agr, tot (resulting in positive netVWi, agr, tot values), are found along the London-Milan axis. These include the Thames, Scheldt, Meuse, Seine, Rhine and Po basins. River basins where the WFprod, agr, tot exceeds the WFcons, agr, tot are found in Western France, the Iberian Peninsula and the Baltic region. These include the Loire, Ebro and Nemunas basins. Under the HEALTHY diet scenario, the WFcons, agr, tot of most river basins decreases (max -32%), although it was found to increase in some basins in northern and eastern Europe. This results in 22 river basins, including the Danube, shifting from being net VW importers to being net VW exporters. A reduction (max -46%) in WFcons, agr, tot is observed for all but one river basin under the VEG diet scenario. In total, 50 river basins shift from being net VW importers to being net exporters, including the Danube, Seine, Rhone and Elbe basins. Similar observations are made when only the gn + bl and gn components are assessed. When analysing only the bl component, a different river basin pattern is observed.

Development, application, and sensitivity analysis of a water quality index for drinking water management in small systems.

PubMed

Scheili, A; Rodriguez, Manuel J; Sadiq, R

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to produce a drinking water assessment tool for operators of small distribution systems. A drinking water quality index (DWQI) was developed and applied to small systems based on the water quality index of the Canadian Council of Ministers of Environment. The drinking water quality index was adapted to specific needs by creating four drinking water quality scenarios. First, the temporal and spatial dimensions of drinking water quality variability were taken into account. The DWQI was designed to express global drinking water quality according to different monitoring frequencies. Daily, monthly, and seasonal assessment was also considered. With the data made available, it was possible to use the index as a spatial monitoring tool and express water quality in different points in the distribution system. Moreover, adjustments were made to prioritize the type of contaminant to monitor. For instance, monitoring contaminants with acute health effects led to a scenario based on daily measures, including easily accessible and affordable water quality parameters. On the other hand, contaminants with chronic effects, especially disinfection by-products, were considered in a seasonal monitoring scenario where disinfection by-product reference values were redefined according to their seasonal variability. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to validate the index. Globally, the DWQI developed is adapted to the needs of small systems. In fact, expressing drinking water quality using the DWQI contributes to the identification of problematic periods and segments in the distribution system. Further work may include this index in the development of a customized decision-making tool for small-system operators and managers.

Development Of New Databases For Tsunami Hazard Analysis In California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Barberopoulou, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Bryant, W. A.; Dengler, L. A.; Goltz, J. D.; Legg, M.; McGuire, T.; Miller, K. M.; Real, C. R.; Synolakis, C.; Uslu, B.

2009-12-01

The California Geological Survey (CGS) has partnered with other tsunami specialists to produce two statewide databases to facilitate the evaluation of tsunami hazard products for both emergency response and land-use planning and development. A robust, State-run tsunami deposit database is being developed that compliments and expands on existing databases from the National Geophysical Data Center (global) and the USGS (Cascadia). Whereas these existing databases focus on references or individual tsunami layers, the new State-maintained database concentrates on the location and contents of individual borings/trenches that sample tsunami deposits. These data provide an important observational benchmark for evaluating the results of tsunami inundation modeling. CGS is collaborating with and sharing the database entry form with other states to encourage its continued development beyond California’s coastline so that historic tsunami deposits can be evaluated on a regional basis. CGS is also developing an internet-based, tsunami source scenario database and forum where tsunami source experts and hydrodynamic modelers can discuss the validity of tsunami sources and their contribution to hazard assessments for California and other coastal areas bordering the Pacific Ocean. The database includes all distant and local tsunami sources relevant to California starting with the forty scenarios evaluated during the creation of the recently completed statewide series of tsunami inundation maps for emergency response planning. Factors germane to probabilistic tsunami hazard analyses (PTHA), such as event histories and recurrence intervals, are also addressed in the database and discussed in the forum. Discussions with other tsunami source experts will help CGS determine what additional scenarios should be considered in PTHA for assessing the feasibility of generating products of value to local land-use planning and development.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

PubMed Central

Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. PMID:29414989

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

PubMed

Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

Life cycle analysis of pistachio production in Greece.

PubMed

Bartzas, Georgios; Komnitsas, Kostas

2017-10-01

In the present paper, a life cycle assessment (LCA) study regarding pistachio (Pistacia vera L.) cultivation in Aegina island, Greece, was performed to evaluate the energy use footprint and the associated environmental impacts. In this context, a detailed life cycle inventory was created based on site-survey data and used for a holistic cradle-to-farm gate LCA analysis using the GaBi 6.5 software. The main impact categories assessed were acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP), global warming potential (GWP), ozone depletion potential (ODP), photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP) and cumulative energy demand (CED). In order to reveal the main environmental concerns pertinent to pistachio production and in turn propose measures for the reduction of environmental and energetic impacts, three scenarios were compared, namely the Baseline scenario (BS) that involves current cultivation practices, the Green Energy (GE) scenario that involves the use of biological fertilizers i.e. compost, and the Waste Utilization (WU) scenario that involves the production of biochar from pistachio and other agricultural wastes and its subsequent soil application to promote carbon sequestration and improve soil quality. Based on the results of this study, the use of compost for fertilization (GE scenario), which results in approximately 9% savings in terms of energy consumption and the five environmental impact categories studied compared to BS scenario, is considered a promising alternative cultivation strategy. Slightly higher savings (10% on average) in terms of the five calculated environmental impact categories, compared to the BS scenario, were indicated when the WU scenario was considered. Regarding energy consumption, the WU scenario results in minor increase, 3%, compared to the BS scenario. Results of uncertainty analysis performed using the Monte Carlo technique and contribution analysis showed that GE and WU scenarios offer reliable and significant eco-profile improvements for pistachio production in the study area compared to the current situation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

2015-01-01

The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

PubMed

Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

2014-11-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

Watershed-scale impacts of bioenergy crops on hydrology and water quality using improved SWAT model

DOE PAGES

Cibin, Raj; Trybula, Elizabeth; Chaubey, Indrajeet; ...

2016-01-08

Cellulosic bioenergy feedstock such as perennial grasses and crop residues are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. Here, we used an improved version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to forecast impacts on watershed hydrology and water quality by implementing an array of plausible land-use changes associated with commercial bioenergy crop production for two watersheds in the Midwest USA. Watershed-scale impacts were estimated for 13 bioenergy crop production scenarios, including: production of Miscanthus 9 giganteus and upland Shawnee switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas and pastures, removal ofmore » corn stover and combinations of these options. We also measured water quality as erosion and sediment loading; this was forecasted to improve compared to baseline when perennial grasses were used for bioenergy production, but not with stover removal scenarios. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet was reduced between 0 and 8% across these bioenergy crop production scenarios compared to baseline across the study watersheds. Our results indicate that bioenergy production scenarios that incorporate perennial grasses reduced the nonpoint source pollutant load at the watershed outlet compared to the baseline conditions (0–20% for nitrate-nitrogen and 3–56% for mineral phosphorus); but, the reduction rates were specific to site characteristics and management practices.« less

A First Look at the Upcoming SISO Space Reference FOM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crues, Edwin; Dexter, Dan; Madden, Michael; Garro, Alfred; Vankov, Alexander; Skuratovskiy, Anton; Moller, Bjorn

2016-01-01

Simulation is increasingly used in the space domain for several purposes. One example is analysis and engineering, from the mission level down to individual systems and subsystems. Another example is training of space crew and flight controllers. Several distributed simulations have been developed for example for docking vehicles with the ISS and for mission training, in many cases with participants from several nations. Space based scenarios are also used in the "Simulation Exploration Experience", SISO's university outreach program. We have thus realized that there is a need for a distributed simulation interoperability standard for data exchange within the space domain. Based on these experiences, SISO is developing a Space Reference FOM. Members of the product development group come from several countries and contribute experiences from projects within NASA, ESA and other organizations. Participants represent government, academia and industry. The first version will focus on handling of time and space. The Space Reference FOM will provide the following: (i) a flexible positioning system using reference frames for arbitrary bodies in space, (ii) a naming conventions for well known reference frames, (iii) definitions of common time scales, (iv) federation agreements for common types of time management with focus on time stepped simulation, and (v) support for physical entities, such as space vehicles and astronauts. The Space Reference FOM is expected to make collaboration politically, contractually and technically easier. It is also expected to make collaboration easier to manage and extend.

Biofuel Induced Land Use Change effects on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaubey, I.; Cibin, R.; Frankenberger, J.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Volenec, J. J.; Brouder, S. M.

2015-12-01

High yielding perennial grasses such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and crop residues such as corn stover are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. We have evaluated the potential impacts of biofuel induced land use changes on hydrology, water quality, and ecosystem services. The bioenergy production scenarios, included: production of Miscanthus × giganteus and switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas, and pastures; removal of corn stover at various rates; and combinations of these scenarios. The hydrology and water quality impacts of land use change scenarios were estimated for two watersheds in Midwest USA (1) Wildcat Creek watershed (drainage area of 2,083 km2) located in north-central Indiana and (2) St. Joseph River watershed (drainage area of 2,809 km2) located in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. We have also simulated the impacts of climate change and variability on environmental sustainability and have compared climate change impacts with land use change impacts. The study results indicated improved water quality with perennial grass scenarios compared to current row crop production impacts. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet were reduced between 0.2 and 8% among various bioenergy crop production scenarios. Stover removal scenarios indicated increased erosion compared to baseline condition due reduced soil cover after stover harvest. Stream flow and nitrate loading were reduced with stover removal due to increased soil evaporation and reduced mineralization. A comparison of land use and climate change impacts indicates that land use changes will have considerably larger impacts on hydrology, water quality and environmental sustainability compared to climate change and variability. Our results indicate that production of biofuel crops can be optimized at the landscape level to provide adequate supply of biomass while improving water quality and environmental sustainability.

Implementation of system dynamic simulation method to optimize profit in supply chain network of vegetable product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tama, I. P.; Akbar, Z.; Eunike, A.

2018-04-01

Vegetables are categorized as a perishable product, which is a product with short lifespan thus requires proper handling and planning to reduce losses caused by the short lifespan. In order to reduce the losses, coordination among the players in the supply chain is required. On the other hand, the decision in the supply chain of vegetables and other farming products in the traditional market of developing country is independent among the players. This research is conducted by using System Dynamic Simulation method to develop model and scenario by coordinating the supply quantity amongst players in the supply chain. The scenarios are developed based on newsboy inventory model. This study aims to compare scenarios combining tiers involved in coordination program. The result shows that coordination in supply chain increases total supply chain profit, although there will always be players who experienced decrements in profit. The scenario of coordination among the farmer, the distributor, and the wholesaler resulted in the highest increase in total supply chain profit compared to other coordination scenarios, with an increased value of 10.49%.

Greenhouse gas emissions and land use change from Jatropha curcas-based jet fuel in Brazil.

PubMed

Bailis, Robert E; Baka, Jennifer E

2010-11-15

This analysis presents a comparison of life-cycle GHG emissions from synthetic paraffinic kerosene (SPK) produced as jet fuel substitute from jatropha curcas feedstock cultivated in Brazil against a reference scenario of conventional jet fuel. Life cycle inventory data are derived from surveys of actual Jatropha growers and processors. Results indicate that a baseline scenario, which assumes a medium yield of 4 tons of dry fruit per hectare under drip irrigation with existing logistical conditions using energy-based coproduct allocation methodology, and assumes a 20-year plantation lifetime with no direct land use change (dLUC), results in the emissions of 40 kg CO₂e per GJ of fuel produced, a 55% reduction relative to conventional jet fuel. However, dLUC based on observations of land-use transitions leads to widely varying changes in carbon stocks ranging from losses in excess of 50 tons of carbon per hectare when Jatropha is planted in native cerrado woodlands to gains of 10-15 tons of carbon per hectare when Jatropha is planted in former agro-pastoral land. Thus, aggregate emissions vary from a low of 13 kg CO₂e per GJ when Jatropha is planted in former agro-pastoral lands, an 85% decrease from the reference scenario, to 141 kg CO₂e per GJ when Jatropha is planted in cerrado woodlands, a 60% increase over the reference scenario. Additional sensitivities are also explored, including changes in yield, exclusion of irrigation, shortened supply chains, and alternative allocation methodologies.

Changing climate in Hungary and trends in the annual number of heat stress days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solymosi, Norbert; Torma, Csaba; Kern, Anikó; Maróti-Agóts, Ákos; Barcza, Zoltán; Könyves, László; Berke, Olaf; Reiczigel, Jenő

2010-07-01

Global climate change can have serious direct effects on animal health and production through heat stress. In Hungary, the number of heat stress days per year (YNHD), i.e., days when the temperature humidity index (THI) is above a specific comfort threshold, has increased in recent years based on observed meteorological data. Between 1973 and 2008, the countrywide average increase in YNHD was 4.1% per year. Climate scenarios based on regional climate models (RCM) were used to predict possible changes in YNHD for the near future (2021-2050) relative to the reference period (1961-1990). This comparison shows that, in Hungary, the 30-year mean of YNHD is expected to increase by between 1 and 27 days, depending on the RCM used. Half of the scenarios investigated in this study predicted that, in large parts of Hungary, YNHD will increase by at least 1 week. However, the increase observed in the past, and that predicted for the near future, is spatially heterogeneous, and areas that currently have large cattle populations are expected to be affected more severely than other regions.

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

2015-01-01

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

Evaluation of comparative advantages in the profitability and competitiveness of the small-scale dairy system of Tulancingo Valley, Mexico.

PubMed

Posadas-Domínguez, Rodolfo Rogelio; Del Razo-Rodríguez, Oscar Enrique; Almaraz-Buendía, Isaac; Pelaez-Acero, Armando; Espinosa-Muñoz, Verónica; Rebollar-Rebollar, Samuel; Salinas-Martínez, Jesús Armando

2018-06-01

This article combines a Policy Analysis Matrix with a sensitivity and poverty line analysis with the objective of evaluating the economic contribution of comparative advantages to the private profitability and competitiveness of small-scale dairy systems. For 1 year, socioeconomic data were collected from 82 farms selected from four strata via statistical sampling. Two scenarios were established to determine the quantitative contribution of comparative advantages: (1) a simulated scenario, which accounted for the cost of purchasing the total food and the opportunity cost of the family labour force (FLF), and (2) an actual production scenario, which accounted for the cost of producing food and eliminating the payment of the FLF and included other income. The E3 and E4 producers were the most profitable and competitive in the simulated scenario and actual production scenario. Of the four scales evaluated, the E2 and E1 producers were the most efficient in taking advantage of the economic contribution provided by the comparative advantages in their own production of food and employment of the FLF, in addition to accounting for other income, a condition that increased their profitability by 171 and 144% and competitiveness by 346 and 273%, respectively. The poverty results indicated that only E3 and E4 producers were non-vulnerable in the simulated scenario and actual production scenario. The purchase of food was the comparative advantage with the greatest sensitivity to cost increases in the two scenarios analysed, which exacerbated the effect on the E1 and E2 producers.

The economic impact of more sustainable water use in agriculture: A computable general equilibrium analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calzadilla, Alvaro; Rehdanz, Katrin; Tol, Richard S. J.

2010-04-01

SummaryAgriculture is the largest consumer of freshwater resources - around 70 percent of all freshwater withdrawals are used for food production. These agricultural products are traded internationally. A full understanding of water use is, therefore, impossible without understanding the international market for food and related products, such as textiles. Based on the global general equilibrium model GTAP-W, we offer a method for investigating the role of green (rain) and blue (irrigation) water resources in agriculture and within the context of international trade. We use future projections of allowable water withdrawals for surface water and groundwater to define two alternative water management scenarios. The first scenario explores a deterioration of current trends and policies in the water sector (water crisis scenario). The second scenario assumes an improvement in policies and trends in the water sector and eliminates groundwater overdraft world-wide, increasing water allocation for the environment (sustainable water use scenario). In both scenarios, welfare gains or losses are not only associated with changes in agricultural water consumption. Under the water crisis scenario, welfare not only rises for regions where water consumption increases (China, South East Asia and the USA). Welfare gains are considerable for Japan and South Korea, Southeast Asia and Western Europe as well. These regions benefit from higher levels of irrigated production and lower food prices. Alternatively, under the sustainable water use scenario, welfare losses not only affect regions where overdrafting is occurring. Welfare decreases in other regions as well. These results indicate that, for water use, there is a clear trade-off between economic welfare and environmental sustainability.

Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, D.

2008-12-01

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes projections in terms of scenarios that include estimates of oil, gas, and coal production. These scenarios are defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or SRES (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). It is striking how different these scenarios are. For example, total oil production from 2005 to 2100 in the scenarios varies by 5:1 (Appendix SRES Version 1.1). Because production in some of the scenarios has not peaked by 2100, this ratio would be comparable to 10:1 if the years after 2100 were considered. The IPCC says "... the resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties of future GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions arising from different characteristics of these models ..." (Nakicenovic et al., 2000, Summary for Policy Makers). This uncertainty is important for climate modeling, because it is larger than the likely range for the temperature sensitivity, which the IPCC gives as 2.3:1 (Gerard Meehl et al., 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 10, Global Climate Projections, p. 799). The uncertainty indicates that we could improve climate modeling if we could make a better estimate of future oil, gas, and coal production. We start by considering the two major fossil-fuel regions with substantial exhaustion, US oil and British coal. It turns out that simple normal and logistic curve fits to the cumulative production for these regions give quite stable projections for the ultimate production. By ultimate production, we mean total production, past and future. For US oil, the range for the fits for the ultimate is 1.15:1 (225- 258 billion barrels) for the period starting in 1956, when King Hubbert made his prediction of the peak year of US oil production. For UK coal, the range is 1.26:1 for the period starting in 1905, at the time of a Royal Commission on coal supplies. We extend this approach to find fits for world oil and gas production, and by a regional analysis, for world coal production. For world oil and gas production, the fit for the ultimate is 640Gtoe (billion metric tons of oil equivalent). This is somewhat larger than the sum of cumulative production and reserves, 580Gtoe. Because future discoveries are not included in the reserves, it is to be expected that our fit would be larger. On the other hand, there have been large increases in OPEC reserves that have not been subject to outside audit, so it is not clear how close the two numbers should be. For world coal, the sum of the fits for regional ultimate production is 660Gt (billion metric tons). This is considerably less than the sum of cumulative production and reserves, 1,100Gt, but it is consistent with the British experience, where until recently, reserves were a large multiple of future production. The projection is that we will have consumed half of the ultimate world oil, gas, and coal production by 2019. This means that the current intense development of alternative sources of energy can be justified independently of climate considerations. When these projections are converted to carbon equivalents, the projected future emissions from burning oil, gas, and coal from 2005 on are 520GtC. The projected emissions for the 2005-2100 period are smaller than for any of the 40 SRES scenarios. This suggests that future scenarios should take exhaustion into account. These projections, if correct, are good news for climate change.

Economic Impact of NMMO Pretreatment on Ethanol and Biogas Production from Pinewood

PubMed Central

Zilouei, Hamid; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J.

2014-01-01

Processes for ethanol and biogas (scenario 1) and biomethane (scenario 2) production from pinewood improved by N-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO) pretreatment were developed and simulated by Aspen plus. These processes were compared with two processes using steam explosion instead of NMMO pretreatment ethanol (scenario 3) and biomethane (scenario 4) production, and the economies of all processes were evaluated by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Gasoline equivalent prices of the products including 25% value added tax (VAT) and selling and distribution expenses for scenarios 1 to 4 were, respectively, 1.40, 1.20, 1.24, and 1.04 €/l, which are lower than gasoline price. The profitability indexes for scenarios 1 to 4 were 1.14, 0.93, 1.16, and 0.96, respectively. Despite the lower manufacturing costs of biomethane, the profitability indexes of these processes were lower than those of the bioethanol processes, because of higher capital requirements. The results showed that taxing rule is an effective parameter on the economy of the biofuels. The gasoline equivalent prices of the biofuels were 15–37% lower than gasoline; however, 37% of the gasoline price contributes to energy and carbon dioxide tax which are not included in the prices of biofuels based on the Swedish taxation rules. PMID:25276777

Economic impact of NMMO pretreatment on ethanol and biogas production from pinewood.

PubMed

Shafiei, Marzieh; Karimi, Keikhosro; Zilouei, Hamid; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J

2014-01-01

Processes for ethanol and biogas (scenario 1) and biomethane (scenario 2) production from pinewood improved by N-methylmorpholine-N-oxide (NMMO) pretreatment were developed and simulated by Aspen plus. These processes were compared with two processes using steam explosion instead of NMMO pretreatment ethanol (scenario 3) and biomethane (scenario 4) production, and the economies of all processes were evaluated by Aspen Process Economic Analyzer. Gasoline equivalent prices of the products including 25% value added tax (VAT) and selling and distribution expenses for scenarios 1 to 4 were, respectively, 1.40, 1.20, 1.24, and 1.04 €/l, which are lower than gasoline price. The profitability indexes for scenarios 1 to 4 were 1.14, 0.93, 1.16, and 0.96, respectively. Despite the lower manufacturing costs of biomethane, the profitability indexes of these processes were lower than those of the bioethanol processes, because of higher capital requirements. The results showed that taxing rule is an effective parameter on the economy of the biofuels. The gasoline equivalent prices of the biofuels were 15-37% lower than gasoline; however, 37% of the gasoline price contributes to energy and carbon dioxide tax which are not included in the prices of biofuels based on the Swedish taxation rules.

A Survey on Personal Data Cloud

PubMed Central

Wang, Jiaqiu; Wang, Zhongjie

2014-01-01

Personal data represent the e-history of a person and are of great significance to the person, but they are essentially produced and governed by various distributed services and there lacks a global and centralized view. In recent years, researchers pay attention to Personal Data Cloud (PDC) which aggregates the heterogeneous personal data scattered in different clouds into one cloud, so that a person could effectively store, acquire, and share their data. This paper makes a short survey on PDC research by summarizing related papers published in recent years. The concept, classification, and significance of personal data are elaborately introduced and then the semantics correlation and semantics representation of personal data are discussed. A multilayer reference architecture of PDC, including its core components and a real-world operational scenario showing how the reference architecture works, is introduced in detail. Existing commercial PDC products/prototypes are listed and compared from several perspectives. Five open issues to improve the shortcomings of current PDC research are put forward. PMID:25165753

A statistically robust EEG re-referencing procedure to mitigate reference effect

PubMed Central

Lepage, Kyle Q.; Kramer, Mark A.; Chu, Catherine J.

2014-01-01

Background The electroencephalogram (EEG) remains the primary tool for diagnosis of abnormal brain activity in clinical neurology and for in vivo recordings of human neurophysiology in neuroscience research. In EEG data acquisition, voltage is measured at positions on the scalp with respect to a reference electrode. When this reference electrode responds to electrical activity or artifact all electrodes are affected. Successful analysis of EEG data often involves re-referencing procedures that modify the recorded traces and seek to minimize the impact of reference electrode activity upon functions of the original EEG recordings. New method We provide a novel, statistically robust procedure that adapts a robust maximum-likelihood type estimator to the problem of reference estimation, reduces the influence of neural activity from the re-referencing operation, and maintains good performance in a wide variety of empirical scenarios. Results The performance of the proposed and existing re-referencing procedures are validated in simulation and with examples of EEG recordings. To facilitate this comparison, channel-to-channel correlations are investigated theoretically and in simulation. Comparison with existing methods The proposed procedure avoids using data contaminated by neural signal and remains unbiased in recording scenarios where physical references, the common average reference (CAR) and the reference estimation standardization technique (REST) are not optimal. Conclusion The proposed procedure is simple, fast, and avoids the potential for substantial bias when analyzing low-density EEG data. PMID:24975291

Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

2007-12-01

There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed, and 3) started implementing it to the city of Kawasaki, Kanagawa, Japan, in cooperation with municipal officials and stakeholders. The participatory process is to develop city-scale environmental scenarios toward low carbon society, referring international and domestic environmental scenarios. Though the scenario development is still in process, it has already brought practical knowledge about and experience on how to bridge scenarios developed for different temporal and spatial scales.

Consequential environmental life cycle assessment of a farm-scale biogas plant.

PubMed

Van Stappen, Florence; Mathot, Michaël; Decruyenaere, Virginie; Loriers, Astrid; Delcour, Alice; Planchon, Viviane; Goffart, Jean-Pierre; Stilmant, Didier

2016-06-15

Producing biogas via anaerobic digestion is a promising technology for meeting European and regional goals on energy production from renewable sources. It offers interesting opportunities for the agricultural sector, allowing waste and by-products to be converted into bioenergy and bio-based materials. A consequential life cycle assessment (cLCA) was conducted to examine the consequences of the installation of a farm-scale biogas plant, taking account of assumptions about processes displaced by biogas plant co-products (power, heat and digestate) and the uses of the biogas plant feedstock prior to plant installation. Inventory data were collected on an existing farm-scale biogas plant. The plant inputs are maize cultivated for energy, solid cattle manure and various by-products from surrounding agro-food industries. Based on hypotheses about displaced electricity production (oil or gas) and the initial uses of the plant feedstock (animal feed, compost or incineration), six scenarios were analyzed and compared. Digested feedstock previously used in animal feed was replaced with other feed ingredients in equivalent feed diets, designed to take account of various nutritional parameters for bovine feeding. The displaced production of mineral fertilizers and field emissions due to the use of digestate as organic fertilizer was balanced against the avoided use of manure and compost. For all of the envisaged scenarios, the installation of the biogas plant led to reduced impacts on water depletion and aquatic ecotoxicity (thanks mainly to the displaced mineral fertilizer production). However, with the additional animal feed ingredients required to replace digested feedstock in the bovine diets, extra agricultural land was needed in all scenarios. Field emissions from the digestate used as organic fertilizer also had a significant impact on acidification and eutrophication. The choice of displaced marginal technologies has a huge influence on the results, as have the assumptions about the previous uses of the biogas plant inputs. The main finding emerging from this study was that the biogas plant should not use feedstock that is intended for animal feed because their replacement in animal diets involves additional impacts mostly in terms of extra agricultural land. cLCA appears to be a useful instrument for giving decision-makers information on the consequences of introducing new multifunctional systems such as farm-scale biogas plants, provided that the study uses specific local data and identifies displaced reference systems on a case-by-case basis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LWR First Recycle of TRU with Thorium Oxide for Transmutation and Cross Sections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrea Alfonsi; Gilles Youinou; Sonat Sen

2013-02-01

Thorium has been considered as an option to uranium-based fuel, based on considerations of resource utilization (thorium is approximately three times more plentiful than uranium) and as a result of concerns about proliferation and waste management (e.g. reduced production of plutonium, etc.). Since the average composition of natural Thorium is dominated (100%) by the fertile isotope Th-232, Thorium is only useful as a resource for breeding new fissile materials, in this case U-233. Consequently a certain amount of fissile material must be present at the start-up of the reactor in order to guarantee its operation. The thorium fuel can bemore » used in both once-through and recycle options, and in both fast and thermal spectrum systems. The present study has been aimed by the necessity of investigating the option of using reprocessed plutonium/TRU, from a once-through reference LEU scenario (50 GWd/ tIHM), mixed with natural thorium and the need of collect data (mass fractions, cross-sections etc.) for this particular fuel cycle scenario. As previously pointed out, the fissile plutonium is needed to guarantee the operation of the reactor. Four different scenarios have been considered: • Thorium – recycled Plutonium; • Thorium – recycled Plutonium/Neptunium; • Thorium – recycled Plutonium/Neptunium/Americium; • Thorium – recycled Transuranic. The calculations have been performed with SCALE6.1-TRITON.« less

LWR First Recycle of TRU with Thorium Oxide for Transmutation and Cross Sections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrea Alfonsi; Gilles Youinou

2012-07-01

Thorium has been considered as an option to uranium-based fuel, based on considerations of resource utilization (thorium is approximately three times more plentiful than uranium) and as a result of concerns about proliferation and waste management (e.g. reduced production of plutonium, etc.). Since the average composition of natural Thorium is dominated (100%) by the fertile isotope Th-232, Thorium is only useful as a resource for breeding new fissile materials, in this case U-233. Consequently a certain amount of fissile material must be present at the start-up of the reactor in order to guarantee its operation. The thorium fuel can bemore » used in both once-through and recycle options, and in both fast and thermal spectrum systems. The present study has been aimed by the necessity of investigating the option of using reprocessed plutonium/TRU, from a once-through reference LEU scenario (50 GWd/ tIHM), mixed with natural thorium and the need of collect data (mass fractions, cross-sections etc.) for this particular fuel cycle scenario. As previously pointed out, the fissile plutonium is needed to guarantee the operation of the reactor. Four different scenarios have been considered: • Thorium – recycled Plutonium; • Thorium – recycled Plutonium/Neptunium; • Thorium – recycled Plutonium/Neptunium/Americium; • Thorium – recycled Transuranic. The calculations have been performed with SCALE6.1-TRITON.« less

Catalysis for biomass and CO2 use through solar energy: opening new scenarios for a sustainable and low-carbon chemical production.

PubMed

Lanzafame, Paola; Centi, Gabriele; Perathoner, Siglinda

2014-11-21

The use of biomass, bio-waste and CO2 derived raw materials, the latter synthesized using H2 produced using renewable energy sources, opens new scenarios to develop a sustainable and low carbon chemical production, particularly in regions such as Europe lacking in other resources. This tutorial review discusses first this new scenario with the aim to point out, between the different possible options, those more relevant to enable this new future scenario for the chemical production, commenting in particular the different drivers (economic, technological and strategic, environmental and sustainability and socio-political) which guide the selection. The case of the use of non-fossil fuel based raw materials for the sustainable production of light olefins is discussed in more detail, but the production of other olefins and polyolefins, of drop-in intermediates and other platform molecules are also analysed. The final part discusses the role of catalysis in establishing this new scenario, summarizing the development of catalysts with respect to industrial targets, for (i) the production of light olefins by catalytic dehydration of ethanol and by CO2 conversion via FTO process, (ii) the catalytic synthesis of butadiene from ethanol, butanol and butanediols, and (iii) the catalytic synthesis of HMF and its conversion to 2,5-FDCA, adipic acid, caprolactam and 1,6-hexanediol.

Pharmaceutical industry and trade liberalization using computable general equilibrium model.

PubMed

Barouni, M; Ghaderi, H; Banouei, Aa

2012-01-01

Computable general equilibrium models are known as a powerful instrument in economic analyses and widely have been used in order to evaluate trade liberalization effects. The purpose of this study was to provide the impacts of trade openness on pharmaceutical industry using CGE model. Using a computable general equilibrium model in this study, the effects of decrease in tariffs as a symbol of trade liberalization on key variables of Iranian pharmaceutical products were studied. Simulation was performed via two scenarios in this study. The first scenario was the effect of decrease in tariffs of pharmaceutical products as 10, 30, 50, and 100 on key drug variables, and the second was the effect of decrease in other sectors except pharmaceutical products on vital and economic variables of pharmaceutical products. The required data were obtained and the model parameters were calibrated according to the social accounting matrix of Iran in 2006. The results associated with simulation demonstrated that the first scenario has increased import, export, drug supply to markets and household consumption, while import, export, supply of product to market, and household consumption of pharmaceutical products would averagely decrease in the second scenario. Ultimately, society welfare would improve in all scenarios. We presents and synthesizes the CGE model which could be used to analyze trade liberalization policy issue in developing countries (like Iran), and thus provides information that policymakers can use to improve the pharmacy economics.

Mitigation strategies in the agro-food sector: The anaerobic digestion of tomato purée by-products. An Italian case study.

PubMed

Bacenetti, Jacopo; Duca, Daniele; Negri, Marco; Fusi, Alessandra; Fiala, Marco

2015-09-01

Tomato processing involves a significant production of residues, mainly constituted by discarded tomatoes, skins, seeds and pulp. Often, these residues are not valorized and represent an added cost for manufacturing companies because of disposal processes, with environmental issues due to the difficult management. The exploitation of these residual materials results complex as their availability is mainly concentrated in few months. A possible solution is the production of biogas employed in a Combine Heat and Power engine for energy production, in line with the 2020 targets of European Union in terms of promotion of energy from renewable resources and greenhouse gas emission reduction. The tomato by-product utilization for energy production as a strategy to reduce the environmental load of tomato purée was evaluated by means of Life Cycle Assessment. Two scenarios were considered: Baseline Scenario - tomato by-products are sent back to the tomato fields as organic fertilizers; Alternative Scenario - tomato by-products are employed in a nearby biogas plant for energy production. Methane production of tomato by-products was assessed by means of specific laboratory tests. The comparison between the two scenarios highlighted reductions for all the impact categories with the Alternative Scenario. The most important reductions are related to particulate matter (-5.3%), climate change (-6.4%) and ozone depletion (-13.4%). Although small, the reduction of the environmental impact cannot be neglected; for example for climate change, the anaerobic digestion of by-products allows a saving of GHG emissions that, over the whole year, is equal to 1.567 tons of CO2 eq. The results of this study could be up-scaled to the food industries with high heat demand producing considerable amounts of fermentable by-products employable as feedstock for biogas production. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A multidisciplinary analysis of groundwater declines and agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steward, David R.; Bruss, Paul J.; Yang, Xiaoying; Staggenborg, Scott A.; Welch, Stephen M.; Apley, Michael D.

2014-05-01

The High Plains Aquifer provides groundwater for 30% of the irrigated agriculture in the USA. Within Kansas, groundwater supports the congressional district with highest market value of agriculture. And yet, over-pumping and associated groundwater declines threaten the long-term prospects. The groundwater portion of this study quantifies the availability of groundwater stores over the next 100 years. A water-use function is developed to quantify the historical and future impacts of irrigation on corn production. A relationship between corn consumption per head of cattle quantifies the herd size that can be supported by irrigated corn. Together, we project the impacts of changes in groundwater stores on corn and cattle production for the next century. Scenarios analyze the impacts of water savings today on current and future agriculture production. Reference: Steward, D. R., Bruss, P. J., Yang, X., Staggenborg, S. A., Welch, S. M. and M. D. Apley, Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(37) E3477-E3486, September 10, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1220351110

Long-term US energy outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friesen, G.

Chase Econometrics summarizes the assumptions underlying long-term US energy forecasts. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they compare Chase Econometrics forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the DOE Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Scenario B, the mid-range reference case, is emphasized. The purpose of providing Scenario B as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand. 4 tables.

Testbeds for Assessing Critical Scenarios in Power Control Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dondossola, Giovanna; Deconinck, Geert; Garrone, Fabrizio; Beitollahi, Hakem

The paper presents a set of control system scenarios implemented in two testbeds developed in the context of the European Project CRUTIAL - CRitical UTility InfrastructurAL Resilience. The selected scenarios refer to power control systems encompassing information and communication security of SCADA systems for grid teleoperation, impact of attacks on inter-operator communications in power emergency conditions, impact of intentional faults on the secondary and tertiary control in power grids with distributed generators. Two testbeds have been developed for assessing the effect of the attacks and prototyping resilient architectures.

A Comparison of the Kernel Equating Method with Traditional Equating Methods Using SAT[R] Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Jinghua; Low, Albert C.

2008-01-01

This study applied kernel equating (KE) in two scenarios: equating to a very similar population and equating to a very different population, referred to as a distant population, using SAT[R] data. The KE results were compared to the results obtained from analogous traditional equating methods in both scenarios. The results indicate that KE results…

A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of Shared Climate Policy Assumptions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane

2014-04-01

The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key climate policy dimensions such as the type and scale of mitigation and adaptation measures. They are not specified in the socio-economic reference pathways, and therefore introduce an important third dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. Climate policy assumptions will have to be made in any climate policy scenario, and can have a significant impact on the scenario description. We conclude that a meaningful set of shared climate policy assumptions is useful for grouping individual climatemore » policy analyses and facilitating their comparison. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.« less

Analysis of Pulsed Flow Modification Alternatives, Lower Missouri River, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.

2008-01-01

The graphical, tabular, and statistical data presented in this report resulted from analysis of alternative flow regime designs considered by a group of Missouri River managers, stakeholders, and scientists during the summer of 2005. This plenary group was charged with designing a flow regime with increased spring flow pulses to support reproduction and survival of the endangered pallid sturgeon. Environmental flow components extracted from the reference natural flow regime were used to design and assess performance of alternative flow regimes. The analysis is based on modeled flow releases from Gavins Point Dam (near Yankton, South Dakota) for nine design alternatives and two reference scenarios; the reference scenarios are the run-of-the-river and the water-control plan implemented in 2004. The alternative designs were developed by the plenary group with the goal of providing pulsed spring flows, while retaining traditional social and economic uses of the river.

Olive production systems on sloping land: prospects and scenarios.

PubMed

de Graaff, Jan; Duran Zuazo, Victor-Hugo; Jones, Nádia; Fleskens, Luuk

2008-11-01

The ultimate objective of the EU Olivero project was to improve the quality of life of the rural population and to assure the sustainable use of the natural resources of land and water in the sloping and mountainous olive production systems (SMOPS) areas in Southern Europe. One specific objective was to develop, with end-users, alternative future scenarios for olive orchards in the five Olivero target areas. This paper discusses the development of these scenarios, and their socio-economic and environmental effects. After presenting the different production systems (SMOPS) and their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, a general overview is given of the medium- and long-term prospects. These have been validated by experts from the olive sector and foresee changes towards abandonment, intensification and organic production. On balance, the changes could lead to lower production of some target areas in future. An analysis of major external factors affecting the future development of SMOPS indicates there will be labour shortages and increased wage rates, reduced subsidies and constant or rising olive oil prices. On the basis of these assumptions, four future scenarios are developed for the five target areas, with the help of a Linear Programming simulation model. The results are presented for two target areas. For the Trás-os-Montes target area in Portugal, three of the four tested scenarios point to a high level of abandonment, while in the most positive scenario the areas under semi-intensive low input and organic SMOPS increase. In the Granada and Jaen target area in Spain, all scenarios hint at intensification, and only the orchards on the steepest slopes are likely to be abandoned. The direction and extent of environmental effects (erosion, fire risk, pollution, water use and biodiversity) differ per scenario, as do the extent of cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures.

Trends in future health financing and coverage: future health spending and universal health coverage in 188 countries, 2016-40.

PubMed

2018-05-05

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires health financing systems that provide prepaid pooled resources for key health services without placing undue financial stress on households. Understanding current and future trajectories of health financing is vital for progress towards UHC. We used historical health financing data for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015 to estimate future scenarios of health spending and pooled health spending through to 2040. We extracted historical data on gross domestic product (GDP) and health spending for 188 countries from 1995 to 2015, and projected annual GDP, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending from 2015 through to 2040 as a reference scenario. These estimates were generated using an ensemble of models that varied key demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We generated better and worse alternative future scenarios based on the global distribution of historic health spending growth rates. Last, we used stochastic frontier analysis to investigate the association between pooled health resources and UHC index, a measure of a country's UHC service coverage. Finally, we estimated future UHC performance and the number of people covered under the three future scenarios. In the reference scenario, global health spending was projected to increase from US$10 trillion (95% uncertainty interval 10 trillion to 10 trillion) in 2015 to $20 trillion (18 trillion to 22 trillion) in 2040. Per capita health spending was projected to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 4·2% (3·4-5·1) per year, followed by lower-middle-income countries (4·0%, 3·6-4·5) and low-income countries (2·2%, 1·7-2·8). Despite global growth, per capita health spending was projected to range from only $40 (24-65) to $413 (263-668) in 2040 in low-income countries, and from $140 (90-200) to $1699 (711-3423) in lower-middle-income countries. Globally, the share of health spending covered by pooled resources would range widely, from 19·8% (10·3-38·6) in Nigeria to 97·9% (96·4-98·5) in Seychelles. Historical performance on the UHC index was significantly associated with pooled resources per capita. Across the alternative scenarios, we estimate UHC reaching between 5·1 billion (4·9 billion to 5·3 billion) and 5·6 billion (5·3 billion to 5·8 billion) lives in 2030. We chart future scenarios for health spending and its relationship with UHC. Ensuring that all countries have sustainable pooled health resources is crucial to the achievement of UHC. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Environmental life cycle assessment of different domestic wastewater streams: policy effectiveness in a tropical urban environment.

PubMed

Ng, Bernard J H; Zhou, Jin; Giannis, Apostolos; Chang, Victor W-C; Wang, Jing-Yuan

2014-07-01

To enhance local water security, the Singapore government promotes two water conservation policies: the use of eco-friendly toilets to reduce yellow water (YW) disposal and the installation of water efficient devices to minimize gray water (GW) discharge. The proposed water conservation policies have different impacts on the environmental performance of local wastewater management. The main purpose of this study is to examine and compare the impacts of different domestic wastewater streams and the effectiveness of two water conservation policies by means of life cycle assessment (LCA). LCA is used to compare three scenarios, including a baseline scenario (BL), YW-reduced scenario (YWR) and GW-reduced scenario (GWR). The BL is designed based on the current wastewater management system, whereas the latter two scenarios are constructed according to the two water conservation policies that are proposed by the Singapore government. The software SIMPARO 7.3 with local data and an eco-invent database is used to build up the model, and the functional unit is defined as the daily wastewater disposal of a Singapore resident. Due to local water supply characteristics, the system boundary is extended to include the sewage sludge management and tap water production processes. The characterization results indicate that the GWR has a significant impact reduction (22-25%) while the YWR has only a 2-4% impact reduction compared with the BL. The contribution analysis reveals that the GW dominates many impact categories except eutrophication potential. The tap water production is identified as the most influential process due to its high embodied energy demand in a local context. Life cycle costing analysis shows that both YWR and GWR are financially favorable. It is also revealed that the current water conservation policies could only achieve Singapore's short-term targets. Therefore, two additional strategies are recommended for achieving long-term goals. This study provides a comprehensive and reliable environmental profile of Singapore's wastewater management with the help of extended system boundary and local data. This work also fills the research gap of previous studies by identifying the contribution of different wastewater streams, which would serve as a good reference for source-separating sanitation system design. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment of biogas production from marine algae and cattle manure biorefineries.

PubMed

Giwa, Adewale

2017-11-01

The environmental impacts resulting from the cradle-to-grave life cycles of Enteromorpha prolifera macroalgae and cattle manure biorefineries are assessed and compared. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the response of the impacts to changes in biogas application by using Simapro 7.3.3. Three scenarios are considered in the biorefineries. In the first and second scenarios, the biogas produced is considered to be used for electricity production and transportation, respectively. In the third scenario, the biogas is considered to be recycled back to the systems. Process energy requirements and transportation of inputs contribute the largest share of the overall impacts. The cattle manure biorefinery is slightly more eco-friendly than the macroalgae biorefinery in Scenarios 1 and 2 because it requires more eco-friendly inputs. However, the macroalgae biorefinery becomes more eco-friendly than the cattle manure biorefinery in Scenario 3 because macroalgae require less energy and water for biogas production. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Air Pollutant Emissions Projections for the Cement and Steel Industry in China and the Impact of Emissions Control Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hasanbeigi, Ali; Khanna, Nina; Price, Lynn

China’s cement and steel industry accounts for approximately half of the world’s total cement and steel production. These two industries are two of the most energy-intensive and highest carbon dioxide (CO 2)-emitting industries and two of the key industrial contributors to air pollution in China. For example, the cement industry is the largest source of particulate matter (PM) emissions in China, accounting for 40 percent of its industrial PM emissions and 27 percent of its total national PM emissions. The Chinese steel industry contributed to approximately 20 percent of sulfur dioxide (SO 2) emissions and 27 percent of PM emissionsmore » for all key manufacturing industries in China in 2013. In this study, we analyzed and projected the total PM and SO2 emissions from the Chinese cement and steel industry from 2010–2050 under three different scenarios: a Base Case scenario, an Advanced scenario, and an Advanced EOP (end-of-pipe) scenario. We used bottom-up emissions control technologies data and assumptions to project the emissions. In addition, we conducted an economic analysis to estimate the cost for PM emissions reductions in the Chinese cement industry using EOP control technologies, energy efficiency measures, and product change measures. The results of the emissions projection showed that there is not a substantial difference in PM emissions between the Base Case and Advanced scenarios, for both the cement and steel industries. This is mainly because PM emissions in the cement industry caused mainly by production process and not the fuel use. Since our forecast for the cement production in the Base Case and Advanced scenarios are not too different from each other, this results in only a slight difference in PM emissions forecast for these two scenarios. Also, we assumed a similar share and penetration rate of control technologies from 2010 up to 2050 for these two scenarios for the cement and steel industry. However, the Advanced EOP scenario showed significantly lower PM emissions for the cement industry, reaching to 1.7 million tons of PM in 2050, which is less than half of that in the other two scenarios. The Advanced EOP scenario also has the lowest SO2 emissions for the cement industry in China, reaching to 212,000 tons of SO2 in 2050, which is equal to 40 percent of the SO2 emissions in the Advanced scenario and 30 percent of the emissions in the Base Case scenario. The SO2 emission is mainly caused by fuel (coal) burning in cement kiln or steel processes. For the steel industry, the SO2 emissions of the Advanced EOP scenario are significantly lower than the other scenarios, with emissions declining to 323,000 tons in 2050, which is equal to 21 percent and 17 percent of the emissions of Advanced and Base Case scenarios in 2050, respectively. Results of the economic analysis show that for the Chinese cement industry, end-of-pipe PM control technologies have the lowest abatement cost per ton of PM reduced, followed by product change measures and energy efficiency measures, respectively. In summary, in order to meet Chinese national and regional air quality standards, best practice end-of-pipe emissions control technologies must be installed in both cement and steel industry and it must be supplemented by implementation of energy efficiency technologies and reduction of cement and steel production through structural change in industry.« less

Linking multimetric and multivariate approaches to assess the ecological condition of streams.

PubMed

Collier, Kevin J

2009-10-01

Few attempts have been made to combine multimetric and multivariate analyses for bioassessment despite recognition that an integrated method could yield powerful tools for bioassessment. An approach is described that integrates eight macroinvertebrate community metrics into a Principal Components Analysis to develop a Multivariate Condition Score (MCS) from a calibration dataset of 511 samples. The MCS is compared to an Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) derived using the same metrics based on the ratio to the reference site mean. Both approaches were highly correlated although the MCS appeared to offer greater potential for discriminating a wider range of impaired conditions. Both the MCS and IBI displayed low temporal variability within reference sites, and were able to distinguish between reference conditions and low levels of catchment modification and local habitat degradation, although neither discriminated among three levels of low impact. Pseudosamples developed to test the response of the metric aggregation approaches to organic enrichment, urban, mining, pastoral and logging stressor scenarios ranked pressures in the same order, but the MCS provided a lower score for the urban scenario and a higher score for the pastoral scenario. The MCS was calculated for an independent test dataset of urban and reference sites, and yielded similar results to the IBI. Although both methods performed comparably, the MCS approach may have some advantages because it removes the subjectivity of assigning thresholds for scoring biological condition, and it appears to discriminate a wider range of degraded conditions.

Rapid corn and soybean mapping in US Corn Belt and neighboring areas

PubMed Central

Zhong, Liheng; Yu, Le; Li, Xuecao; Hu, Lina; Gong, Peng

2016-01-01

The goal of this study was to promptly map the extent of corn and soybeans early in the growing season. A classification experiment was conducted for the US Corn Belt and neighboring states, which is the most important production area of corn and soybeans in the world. To improve the timeliness of the classification algorithm, training was completely based on reference data and images from other years, circumventing the need to finish reference data collection in the current season. To account for interannual variability in crop development in the cross-year classification scenario, several innovative strategies were used. A random forest classifier was used in all tests, and MODIS surface reflectance products from the years 2008–2014 were used for training and cross-year validation. It is concluded that the fuzzy classification approach is necessary to achieve satisfactory results with R-squared ~0.9 (compared with the USDA Cropland Data Layer). The year of training data is an important factor, and it is recommended to select a year with similar crop phenology as the mapping year. With this phenology-based and cross-year-training method, in 2015 we mapped the cropping proportion of corn and soybeans around mid-August, when the two crops just reached peak growth. PMID:27811989

Rapid corn and soybean mapping in US Corn Belt and neighboring areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Liheng; Yu, Le; Li, Xuecao; Hu, Lina; Gong, Peng

2016-11-01

The goal of this study was to promptly map the extent of corn and soybeans early in the growing season. A classification experiment was conducted for the US Corn Belt and neighboring states, which is the most important production area of corn and soybeans in the world. To improve the timeliness of the classification algorithm, training was completely based on reference data and images from other years, circumventing the need to finish reference data collection in the current season. To account for interannual variability in crop development in the cross-year classification scenario, several innovative strategies were used. A random forest classifier was used in all tests, and MODIS surface reflectance products from the years 2008-2014 were used for training and cross-year validation. It is concluded that the fuzzy classification approach is necessary to achieve satisfactory results with R-squared ~0.9 (compared with the USDA Cropland Data Layer). The year of training data is an important factor, and it is recommended to select a year with similar crop phenology as the mapping year. With this phenology-based and cross-year-training method, in 2015 we mapped the cropping proportion of corn and soybeans around mid-August, when the two crops just reached peak growth.

Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.

2011-01-01

The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone-equivalent scenarios; however, the cone-equivalent scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements within the area of the cone of depression because of focused conservation efforts within that area. Regardless of where conservation is located, the greatest average improvements in water level occur within the area of the cone of depression because of the corresponding large area of unsaturated aquifer material within the area of the cone of depression and the hydraulic gradient, which slopes from the periphery of the Delta towards the area of the cone of depression. Of the four conservation scenarios, the 25-percent cone-equivalent scenario resulted in the greatest increase in storage relative to the base scenario with a 32-percent improvement over the base scenario across the entire Delta and a 60-percent improvement within the area of the cone of depression. Overall, the results indicate that focusing conservation efforts within the area of the cone of depression, rather than distributing conservation efforts uniformly across the Delta, results in greater improvements in the amount of storage within the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, as the total amount of conservation increases (that is, from 5 to 25 percent), the difference in storage improvement between the Delta-wide and cone-equivalent scenarios also increases, resulting in greater gains in storage in the cone-equivalent scenario than in the Delta-wide scenario for the same amount of conservation.

An ISRU Propellant Production System to Fully Fuel a Mars Ascent Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kleinhenz, Julie; Paz, Aaron

2017-01-01

ISRU of Mars resources was base lined in 2009 Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0, but only for Oxygen production using atmospheric CO2The Methane (LCH4) needed for ascent propulsion of the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) would need to be brought from Earth. HOWEVER: Extracting water from the Martian Regolith enables the production of both Oxygen and Methane from Mars resources Water resources could also be used for other applications including: Life support, radiation shielding, plant growth, etc. Water extraction was not base lined in DRA5.0 due to perceived difficulties and complexity in processing regolith. The NASA Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) requested studies to look at the quantitative benefits and trades of using Mars water ISRU Phase 1: Examined architecture scenarios for regolith water retrieval. Completed October 2015Phase 2: Deep dive of one architecture concept to look at end-to-end system size, mass, power of a LCH4LO2 ISRU production system.Evolvable Mars CampaignPre-deployed Mars ascent vehicle (MAV)4 crew membersPropellants: Oxygen MethaneGenerate a system model to roll up mass power of a full ISRU system and enable parametric trade studies. Leverage models from previous studies and technology development programs Anchor with mass power performance from existing hardware. Whenever possible used reference-able (published) numbers for traceability.Modular approach to allow subsystem trades and parametric studies. Propellant mass needs taken from most recently published MAV study:Polsgrove, T. et al. (2015), AIAA2015-4416MAV engines operate at mixture ratios (oxygen: methane) between 3:1 and 3.5:1, whereas the Sabatier reactor produces at a 4:1 ratio. Therefore:Methane production is the driving requirement-Excess Oxygen will be produced.

Risk assessment of buckwheat flour contaminated by thorn-apple (Datura stramonium L.) alkaloids: a case study from Slovenia.

PubMed

Perharič, Lucija; Koželj, Gordana; Družina, Branko; Stanovnik, Lovro

2013-01-01

In Slovenia, a mass poisoning incident involving 73 consumers with symptoms such as dry mouth, hot red skin, blurred vision, tachycardia, urinary retention, ataxia, speech disturbance, disorientation and visual hallucinations occurred in 2003. In all cases, consumers had eaten buckwheat flour food products within the last few hours. Investigations by responsible authorities identified the contamination of a range of buckwheat food products with thorn-apple (Datura stramonium L.) seeds containing toxic alkaloids, atropine and scopolamine. To ensure the safe consumption of buckwheat food products, we carried out risk characterisation and proposed provisional maximum residue levels (MRLs) of atropine and scopolamine mixture in buckwheat flour. In the absence of critical "no observed adverse effect levels" for atropine and scopolamine, we based our estimation of the acute reference doses on the lowest recommended therapeutic doses. Taking into account the additive effect of the two alkaloids, we calculated acute reference doses of the mixture, that is 0.05 µg/kg of body mass for atropine and 0.03 µg/kg of body mass for scopolamine. MRLs for atropine and scopolamine mixture in buckwheat flour were estimated in a worst-case scenario, that is consumption of 100 g of flour by a child weighing 10 kg and taking into account a range of atropine/scopolamine ratio in implicated food products, that is 0.85-3.3. We proposed the national MRLs for atropine/scopolamine mixture in buckwheat food products: 4.0 µg/kg (atropine) and 2.0 µg/kg(scopolamine). However, in view of the large variability in the alkaloid content, depending on the origin of the Datura, we propose that risk assessment should be carried out on a case-by-case basis, taking into account the ratio between atropine and scopolamine content in a particular sample.

General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

2008-12-01

The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

A multi-source probabilistic hazard assessment of tephra dispersal in the Neapolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Folch, Arnau; Macedonio, Giovanni; Tonini, Roberto

2015-04-01

In this study we present the results obtained from a long-term Probabilistic Hazard Assessment (PHA) of tephra dispersal in the Neapolitan area. Usual PHA for tephra dispersal needs the definition of eruptive scenarios (usually by grouping eruption sizes and possible vent positions in a limited number of classes) with associated probabilities, a meteorological dataset covering a representative time period, and a tephra dispersal model. PHA then results from combining simulations considering different volcanological and meteorological conditions through weights associated to their specific probability of occurrence. However, volcanological parameters (i.e., erupted mass, eruption column height, eruption duration, bulk granulometry, fraction of aggregates) typically encompass a wide range of values. Because of such a natural variability, single representative scenarios or size classes cannot be adequately defined using single values for the volcanological inputs. In the present study, we use a method that accounts for this within-size-class variability in the framework of Event Trees. The variability of each parameter is modeled with specific Probability Density Functions, and meteorological and volcanological input values are chosen by using a stratified sampling method. This procedure allows for quantifying hazard without relying on the definition of scenarios, thus avoiding potential biases introduced by selecting single representative scenarios. Embedding this procedure into the Bayesian Event Tree scheme enables the tephra fall PHA and its epistemic uncertainties. We have appied this scheme to analyze long-term tephra fall PHA from Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, in a multi-source paradigm. We integrate two tephra dispersal models (the analytical HAZMAP and the numerical FALL3D) into BET_VH. The ECMWF reanalysis dataset are used for exploring different meteorological conditions. The results obtained show that PHA accounting for the whole natural variability are consistent with previous probabilities maps elaborated for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei on the basis of single representative scenarios, but show significant differences. In particular, the area characterized by a 300 kg/m2-load exceedance probability larger than 5%, accounting for the whole range of variability (that is, from small violent strombolian to plinian eruptions), is similar to that displayed in the maps based on the medium magnitude reference eruption, but it is of a smaller extent. This is due to the relatively higher weight of the small magnitude eruptions considered in this study, but neglected in the reference scenario maps. On the other hand, in our new maps the area characterized by a 300 kg/m2-load exceedance probability larger than 1% is much larger than that of the medium magnitude reference eruption, due to the contribution of plinian eruptions at lower probabilities, again neglected in the reference scenario maps.

Emergy Analysis and Sustainability Efficiency Analysis of Different Crop-Based Biodiesel in Life Cycle Perspective

PubMed Central

Ren, Jingzheng; Manzardo, Alessandro; Mazzi, Anna; Fedele, Andrea; Scipioni, Antonio

2013-01-01

Biodiesel as a promising alternative energy resource has been a hot spot in chemical engineering nowadays, but there is also an argument about the sustainability of biodiesel. In order to analyze the sustainability of biodiesel production systems and select the most sustainable scenario, various kinds of crop-based biodiesel including soybean-, rapeseed-, sunflower-, jatropha- and palm-based biodiesel production options are studied by emergy analysis; soybean-based scenario is recognized as the most sustainable scenario that should be chosen for further study in China. DEA method is used to evaluate the sustainability efficiencies of these options, and the biodiesel production systems based on soybean, sunflower, and palm are considered as DEA efficient, whereas rapeseed-based and jatropha-based scenarios are needed to be improved, and the improved methods have also been specified. PMID:23766723

Information-seeking behaviors of medical students: a classification of questions asked of librarians and physicians.

PubMed Central

Wildemuth, B M; de Bliek, R; Friedman, C P; Miya, T S

1994-01-01

To solve a problem, a person often asks questions of someone with more expertise. This paper reports on a study of the types of questions asked and how the experts are chosen. In the study, sixty-three first-year medical students responded to clinical scenarios, each describing a patient affected by a toxin and asking questions concerning the identity of the toxin and its characteristics. After answering those questions, the students were asked to imagine that they had access to a medical reference librarian and an internist specializing in toxicology. The students then generated two questions for each expert about each clinical scenario. Each question was categorized according to the type of information requested, and the frequency of each type of question was calculated. The study found that students most often asked for the identification of the toxin(s), references about the scenario, or the effects of the toxin; an explanation of the patient's symptoms; or a description of the appropriate treatment. Students were more likely to address questions on the identity of the toxin and references to the hypothetical librarian; they were more likely to ask the internist for explanations of the symptoms and descriptions of the treatment. The implications of these results for the design of information and educational systems are discussed. PMID:7920340

IVS Working Group 2 for Product Specification and Observing Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuh, H.; Charlot, P.; Hase, H.; Himwich, E.; Kingham, K.; Klatt, C.; Ma, C.; Malkin, Z.; Niell, A.; Nothnagel, A.; Schluter, W.; Takashima, K.; Vandenberg, N.

2002-03-01

After the scientific rationale is given in the introduction the Terms of Reference and the proceeding of IVS Working Group 2 are presented. Then the present status and future goals of all international activities within IVS are described. In particular the current products of IVS are described in terms of accuracy, reliability, frequency of observing sessions, temporal resolution of the parameters estimated by VLBI data analysis, time delay from observing to product, i.e. time which has passed after the end of the last session included in the VLBI solution till availability of the final products and frequency of solution (in the case of "global solutions";, when all existing or a high number of VLBI sessions are used to determine so-called global parameters). All IVS products and their potential users are covered in the report. This includes the Earth orientation parameters (EOP), the reference frames (TRF and CRF), geodynamical and geophysical parameters and physical parameters. Measures which should be taken within IVS to meet the goals defined in the first steps are presented. As most of the measures are related to the observing programs, these are the main focus for improving the current status of IVS products. The report shows that due to various requirements of the different users of IVS products the following aspects must be accomplished: - significant improvement of the accuracy of VLBI products, - shorter time delay from observation to availability of results, - almost continuous temporal coverage by VLBI sessions. A first scenario of the IVS observing program for 2002 and 2003 considers an increase of observing time by about 30%-40% and includes sessions carried out by S2 and K4 technology. The midterm observing program for the next 4-5 years seems to be rather ambitious. However, it appears feasible if all efforts are concentrated and the necessary resources are made available. From: Bidzina Kapanadze (Ilia State Iniversity) Address: bidzina_kapanadze@iliauni.edu.ge Database: ast

Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production.

PubMed

Leppi, Jason C; Rinella, Daniel J; Wilson, Ryan R; Loya, Wendy M

2014-06-01

Climate change is predicted to dramatically change hydrologic processes across Alaska, but estimates of how these impacts will influence specific watersheds and aquatic species are lacking. Here, we linked climate, hydrology, and habitat models within a coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population model to assess how projected climate change could affect survival at each freshwater life stage and, in turn, production of coho salmon smolts in three subwatersheds of the Chuitna (Chuit) River watershed, Alaska. Based on future climate scenarios and projections from a three-dimensional hydrology model, we simulated coho smolt production over a 20-year span at the end of the century (2080-2100). The direction (i.e., positive vs. negative) and magnitude of changes in smolt production varied substantially by climate scenario and subwatershed. Projected smolt production decreased in all three subwatersheds under the minimum air temperature and maximum precipitation scenario due to elevated peak flows and a resulting 98% reduction in egg-to-fry survival. In contrast, the maximum air temperature and minimum precipitation scenario led to an increase in smolt production in all three subwatersheds through an increase in fry survival. Other climate change scenarios led to mixed responses, with projected smolt production increasing and decreasing in different subwatersheds. Our analysis highlights the complexity inherent in predicting climate-change-related impacts to salmon populations and demonstrates that population effects may depend on interactions between the relative magnitude of hydrologic and thermal changes and their interactions with features of the local habitat. © 2013 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing the impacts of livestock production on biodiversity in rangeland ecosystems.

PubMed

Alkemade, Rob; Reid, Robin S; van den Berg, Maurits; de Leeuw, Jan; Jeuken, Michel

2013-12-24

Biodiversity in rangelands is decreasing, due to intense utilization for livestock production and conversion of rangeland into cropland; yet the outlook of rangeland biodiversity has not been considered in view of future global demand for food. Here we assess the impact of future livestock production on the global rangelands area and their biodiversity. First we formalized existing knowledge about livestock grazing impacts on biodiversity, expressed in mean species abundance (MSA) of the original rangeland native species assemblages, through metaanalysis of peer-reviewed literature. MSA values, ranging from 1 in natural rangelands to 0.3 in man-made grasslands, were entered in the IMAGE-GLOBIO model. This model was used to assess the impact of change in food demand and livestock production on future rangeland biodiversity. The model revealed remarkable regional variation in impact on rangeland area and MSA between two agricultural production scenarios. The area of used rangelands slightly increases globally between 2000 and 2050 in the baseline scenario and reduces under a scenario of enhanced uptake of resource-efficient production technologies increasing production [high levels of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology (high-AKST)], particularly in Africa. Both scenarios suggest a global decrease in MSA for rangelands until 2050. The contribution of livestock grazing to MSA loss is, however, expected to diminish after 2030, in particular in Africa under the high-AKST scenario. Policies fostering agricultural intensification can reduce the overall pressure on rangeland biodiversity, but additional measures, addressing factors such as climate change and infrastructural development, are necessary to totally halt biodiversity loss.

Assessing the impacts of livestock production on biodiversity in rangeland ecosystems

PubMed Central

Alkemade, Rob; Reid, Robin S.; van den Berg, Maurits; de Leeuw, Jan; Jeuken, Michel

2013-01-01

Biodiversity in rangelands is decreasing, due to intense utilization for livestock production and conversion of rangeland into cropland; yet the outlook of rangeland biodiversity has not been considered in view of future global demand for food. Here we assess the impact of future livestock production on the global rangelands area and their biodiversity. First we formalized existing knowledge about livestock grazing impacts on biodiversity, expressed in mean species abundance (MSA) of the original rangeland native species assemblages, through metaanalysis of peer-reviewed literature. MSA values, ranging from 1 in natural rangelands to 0.3 in man-made grasslands, were entered in the IMAGE-GLOBIO model. This model was used to assess the impact of change in food demand and livestock production on future rangeland biodiversity. The model revealed remarkable regional variation in impact on rangeland area and MSA between two agricultural production scenarios. The area of used rangelands slightly increases globally between 2000 and 2050 in the baseline scenario and reduces under a scenario of enhanced uptake of resource-efficient production technologies increasing production [high levels of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology (high-AKST)], particularly in Africa. Both scenarios suggest a global decrease in MSA for rangelands until 2050. The contribution of livestock grazing to MSA loss is, however, expected to diminish after 2030, in particular in Africa under the high-AKST scenario. Policies fostering agricultural intensification can reduce the overall pressure on rangeland biodiversity, but additional measures, addressing factors such as climate change and infrastructural development, are necessary to totally halt biodiversity loss. PMID:22308313

Secondary School Education in Assam (India) with Special Reference to Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Das, N. R.; Baruah, Karuna

2010-01-01

This paper describes the prevailing academic scenarios of a representative group of secondary schools in Assam (India) with special references to students performance in general and mathematics performance in particular. The state of Assam is one of the economically backward regions of India and is witnessing socio-political disturbances mainly…

Impact of pre-imputation SNP-filtering on genotype imputation results

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Imputation of partially missing or unobserved genotypes is an indispensable tool for SNP data analyses. However, research and understanding of the impact of initial SNP-data quality control on imputation results is still limited. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the effect of different strategies of pre-imputation quality filtering on the performance of the widely used imputation algorithms MaCH and IMPUTE. Results We considered three scenarios: imputation of partially missing genotypes with usage of an external reference panel, without usage of an external reference panel, as well as imputation of completely un-typed SNPs using an external reference panel. We first created various datasets applying different SNP quality filters and masking certain percentages of randomly selected high-quality SNPs. We imputed these SNPs and compared the results between the different filtering scenarios by using established and newly proposed measures of imputation quality. While the established measures assess certainty of imputation results, our newly proposed measures focus on the agreement with true genotypes. These measures showed that pre-imputation SNP-filtering might be detrimental regarding imputation quality. Moreover, the strongest drivers of imputation quality were in general the burden of missingness and the number of SNPs used for imputation. We also found that using a reference panel always improves imputation quality of partially missing genotypes. MaCH performed slightly better than IMPUTE2 in most of our scenarios. Again, these results were more pronounced when using our newly defined measures of imputation quality. Conclusion Even a moderate filtering has a detrimental effect on the imputation quality. Therefore little or no SNP filtering prior to imputation appears to be the best strategy for imputing small to moderately sized datasets. Our results also showed that for these datasets, MaCH performs slightly better than IMPUTE2 in most scenarios at the cost of increased computing time. PMID:25112433

Implications of an Absolute Simultaneity Theory for Cosmology and Universe Acceleration

PubMed Central

Kipreos, Edward T.

2014-01-01

An alternate Lorentz transformation, Absolute Lorentz Transformation (ALT), has similar kinematics to special relativity yet maintains absolute simultaneity in the context of a preferred reference frame. In this study, it is shown that ALT is compatible with current experiments to test Lorentz invariance only if the proposed preferred reference frame is locally equivalent to the Earth-centered non-rotating inertial reference frame, with the inference that in an ALT framework, preferred reference frames are associated with centers of gravitational mass. Applying this theoretical framework to cosmological data produces a scenario of universal time contraction in the past. In this scenario, past time contraction would be associated with increased levels of blueshifted light emissions from cosmological objects when viewed from our current perspective. The observation that distant Type Ia supernovae are dimmer than predicted by linear Hubble expansion currently provides the most direct evidence for an accelerating universe. Adjusting for the effects of time contraction on a redshift–distance modulus diagram produces a linear distribution of supernovae over the full redshift spectrum that is consistent with a non-accelerating universe. PMID:25536116

Implications of an absolute simultaneity theory for cosmology and universe acceleration.

PubMed

Kipreos, Edward T

2014-01-01

An alternate Lorentz transformation, Absolute Lorentz Transformation (ALT), has similar kinematics to special relativity yet maintains absolute simultaneity in the context of a preferred reference frame. In this study, it is shown that ALT is compatible with current experiments to test Lorentz invariance only if the proposed preferred reference frame is locally equivalent to the Earth-centered non-rotating inertial reference frame, with the inference that in an ALT framework, preferred reference frames are associated with centers of gravitational mass. Applying this theoretical framework to cosmological data produces a scenario of universal time contraction in the past. In this scenario, past time contraction would be associated with increased levels of blueshifted light emissions from cosmological objects when viewed from our current perspective. The observation that distant Type Ia supernovae are dimmer than predicted by linear Hubble expansion currently provides the most direct evidence for an accelerating universe. Adjusting for the effects of time contraction on a redshift-distance modulus diagram produces a linear distribution of supernovae over the full redshift spectrum that is consistent with a non-accelerating universe.

A Bottom-up Energy Efficiency Improvement Roadmap for China’s Iron and Steel Industry up to 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Qi; Hasanbeigi, Ali; Price, Lynn

Iron and steel manufacturing is energy intensive in China and in the world. China is the world largest steel producer accounting for around half of the world steel production. In this study, we use a bottom-up energy consumption model to analyze four steel-production and energy-efficiency scenarios and evaluate the potential for energy savings from energy-efficient technologies in China’s iron and steel industry between 2010 and 2050. The results show that China’s steel production will rise and peak in the year 2020 at 860 million tons (Mt) per year for the base-case scenario and 680 Mt for the advanced energy-efficiency scenario.more » From 2020 on, production will gradually decrease to about 510 Mt and 400 Mt in 2050, for the base-case and advanced scenarios, respectively. Energy intensity will decrease from 21.2 gigajoules per ton (G/t) in 2010 to 12.2 GJ/t and 9.9 GJ/t in 2050 for the base-case and advanced scenarios, respectively. In the near term, decreases in iron and steel industry energy intensity will come from adoption of energy-efficient technologies. In the long term, a shift in the production structure of China’s iron and steel industry, reducing the share of blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace production and increasing the share of electric-arc furnace production while reducing the use of pig iron as a feedstock to electric-arc furnaces will continue to reduce the sector’s energy consumption. We discuss barriers to achieving these energy-efficiency gains and make policy recommendations to support improved energy efficiency and a shift in the nature of iron and steel production in China.« less

Implementation of Lean System on Erbium Doped Fibre Amplifier Manufacturing Process to Reduce Production Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maneechote, T.; Luangpaiboon, P.

2010-10-01

A manufacturing process of erbium doped fibre amplifiers is complicated. It needs to meet the customers' requirements under a present economic status that products need to be shipped to customers as soon as possible after purchasing orders. This research aims to study and improve processes and production lines of erbium doped fibre amplifiers using lean manufacturing systems via an application of computer simulation. Three scenarios of lean tooled box systems are selected via the expert system. Firstly, the production schedule based on shipment date is combined with a first in first out control system. The second scenario focuses on a designed flow process plant layout. Finally, the previous flow process plant layout combines with production schedule based on shipment date including the first in first out control systems. The computer simulation with the limited data via an expected value is used to observe the performance of all scenarios. The most preferable resulted lean tooled box systems from a computer simulation are selected to implement in the real process of a production of erbium doped fibre amplifiers. A comparison is carried out to determine the actual performance measures via an analysis of variance of the response or the production time per unit achieved in each scenario. The goodness of an adequacy of the linear statistical model via experimental errors or residuals is also performed to check the normality, constant variance and independence of the residuals. The results show that a hybrid scenario of lean manufacturing system with the first in first out control and flow process plant lay out statistically leads to better performance in terms of the mean and variance of production times.

Indonesia palm oil production without deforestation and peat conversion by 2050.

PubMed

Afriyanti, Dian; Kroeze, Carolien; Saad, Asmadi

2016-07-01

Palm oil is a promising source of cooking oil and biodiesel. The demand for palm oil has been increasing worldwide. However, concerns exist surrounding the environmental and socio-economic sustainability of palm oil production. Indonesia is a major palm oil producing country. We explored scenarios for palm oil production in Indonesia until 2050, focusing on Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua. Our scenarios describe possible trends in crude palm oil production in Indonesia, while considering the demand for cooking oil and biodiesel, the available land for plantations, production capacity (for crude palm oil and fresh fruit bunches) and environmentally restricting conditions. We first assessed past developments in palm oil production. Next, we analysed scenarios for the future. In the past 20years, 95% of the Indonesian oil palm production area was in Sumatra and Kalimantan and was increasingly cultivated in peatlands. Our scenarios for the future indicate that Indonesia can meet a considerable part of the global and Asian demand for palm oil, while avoiding further cultivation of peatlands and forest. By 2050, 264-447Mt crude palm oil may be needed for cooking oil and biodiesel worldwide. In Indonesia, the area that is potentially suitable for oil palm is 17 to 26Mha with a potential production rate of 27-38t fresh fruit bunches/ha, yielding 130-176Mt crude palm oil. Thus Indonesia can meet 39-60% of the international demand. In our scenarios this would be produced in Sumatra (21-26%), Kalimantan (12-16%), and Papua (2%). The potential areas include the current oil palm plantation in mineral lands, but exclude the current oil palm plantations in peatlands. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2017-12-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

Gas fired boilers: Perspective for near future fuel composition and impact on burner design process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiro, Fabio; Stoppato, Anna; Benato, Alberto

2017-11-01

The advancements on gas boiler technology run in parallel with the growth of renewable energy production. The renewable production will impact on the fuel gas quality, since the gas grid will face an increasing injection of alternative fuels (biogas, biomethane, hydrogen). Biogas allows producing energy with a lower CO2 impact; hydrogen production by electrolysis can mitigate the issues related to the mismatch between energy production by renewable and energy request. These technologies will contribute to achieve the renewable production targets, but the impact on whole fuel gas production-to-consumption chain must be evaluated. In the first part of this study, the Authors present the future scenario of the grid gas composition and the implications on gas fed appliances. Given that the widely used premixed burners are currently designed mainly by trial and error, a broader fuel gas quality range means an additional hitch on this design process. A better understanding and structuring of this process is helpful for future appliance-oriented developments. The Authors present an experimental activity on a premixed condensing boiler setup. A test protocol highlighting the burners' flexibility in terms of mixture composition is adopted and the system fuel flexibility is characterized around multiple reference conditions.

Impact of forecasted changes in Polish economy (2015 and 2020) on nutrient emission into the river basins.

PubMed

Pastuszak, Marianna; Kowalkowski, Tomasz; Kopiński, Jerzy; Stalenga, Jarosław; Panasiuk, Damian

2014-09-15

Poland, with its large drainage area, with 50% contribution of agricultural land and 45% contribution of population to overall agricultural land area and population number in the Baltic catchment, is the largest exporter of riverine nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the sea. The economic transition has resulted in substantial, statistically significant decline in N, P export from Polish territory to the Baltic Sea. Following the obligations arising from the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) declarations, in the coming years, Poland is expected to reduce riverine N loads by ca. 25% and P loads by ca. 60% as referred to the average flow normalized loads recorded in 1997-2003. The aim of this paper is to estimate annual source apportioned N and P emissions into these river basins in 2015 and 2020 with application of modeling studies (MONERIS). Twelve scenarios, encompassing changes in anthropogenic (diffuse, point source) and natural pressure (precipitation, water outflow due to climate change), have been applied. Modeling outcome for the period 2003-2008 served as our reference material. In applied scenarios, N emission into the Oder basin in 2015 and 2020 shows an increase from 4.2% up to 9.1% as compared with the reference period. N emission into the Vistula basin is more variable and shows an increase by max. 17.8% or a decrease by max. 4.7%, depending on the scenario. The difference between N emission into the Oder and Vistula basins is related to the catchment peculiarities and handling of point sources emission. P emission into both basins shows identical scenario patters and a maximum decrease reaches 17.8% in the Oder and 16.7% in the Vistula basin. Despite a declining tendency in P loads in both rivers in all the scenarios, HELCOM targeted P load reduction is not feasible. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Dale, Virginia H; Kline, Keith L

Indicators of the environmental sustainability of biofuel production, distribution, and use should be selected, measured, and interpreted with respect to the context in which they are used. These indicators include measures of soil quality, water quality and quantity, greenhouse-gas emissions, biodiversity, air quality, and vegetation productivity. Contextual considerations include the purpose for the sustainability analysis, the particular biofuel production and distribution system (including supply chain, management aspects, and system viability), policy conditions, stakeholder values, location, temporal influences, spatial scale, baselines, and reference scenarios. Recommendations presented in this paper include formulating the problem for particular analyses, selecting appropriate context-specific indicators ofmore » environmental sustainability, and developing indicators that can reflect multiple environmental properties at low cost within a defined context. In addition, contextual considerations such as technical objectives, varying values and perspectives of stakeholder groups, and availability and reliability of data need to be understood and considered. Sustainability indicators for biofuels are most useful if adequate historical data are available, information can be collected at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, organizations are committed to use indicator information in the decision-making process, and indicators can effectively guide behavior toward more sustainable practices.« less

Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

2016-04-01

There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. The survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation (to assess energy production). The majority of interviewees appreciates to have the new scenarios with respect to the same reference period as in CH2011 due to comparability purposes. The survey also investigated the incorporation of provided scenario uncertainty into the businesses of the users. The survey shows that this largely depends on the type of users: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of uncertainty. Results of the user survey will be presented and the consequences for the next generation of Swiss climate change scenarios are discussed.

30 CFR 254.47 - Determining the volume of oil of your worst case discharge scenario.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... associated with the facility. In determining the daily discharge rate, you must consider reservoir characteristics, casing/production tubing sizes, and historical production and reservoir pressure data. Your...) For exploratory or development drilling operations, the size of your worst case discharge scenario is...

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

PubMed

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

1992-01-01

The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

Development and application of a processing model for the Irish dairy industry.

PubMed

Geary, U; Lopez-Villalobos, N; Garrick, D J; Shalloo, L

2010-11-01

A processing-sector model was developed that simulates (i) milk collection, (ii) standardization, and (iii) product manufacture. The model estimates the product yield, net milk value, and component values of milk based on milk quantity, composition, product portfolio, and product values. Product specifications of cheese, butter, skim and whole milk powders, liquid milk, and casein are met through milk separation followed by reconstitution in appropriate proportions. Excess cream or skim milk are used in other product manufacture. Volume-related costs, including milk collection, standardization, and processing costs, and product-related costs, including processing costs per tonne, packaging, storage, distribution, and marketing, are quantified. Operating costs, incurred irrespective of milk received and processing activities, are included in the model on a fixed-rate basis. The net milk value is estimated as sale value less total costs. The component values of fat and protein were estimated from net milk value using the marginal rate of technical substitution. Two product portfolio scenarios were examined: scenario 1 was representative of the Irish product mix in 2000, in which 27, 39, 13, and 21% of the milk pool was processed into cheese (€ 3,291.33/t), butter (€ 2,766.33/t), whole milk powder (€ 2,453.33/t), and skim milk powder (€ 2,017.00/t), respectively, and scenario 2 was representative of the 2008 product mix, in which 43, 30, 14, and 13% was processed into cheese, butter, whole milk powder, and skim milk powder, respectively, and sold at the same market prices. Within both scenarios 3 milk compositions were considered, which were representative of (i) typical Irish Holstein-Friesian, (ii) Jersey, and (iii) the New Zealand strain of Holstein-Friesian, each of which had differing milk constituents. The effect each milk composition had on product yield, processing costs, total revenue, component values of milk, and the net value of milk was examined. The value per liter of milk in scenario 1 was 24.8, 30.8, and 27.4 cents for Irish Holstein-Friesian, Jersey, and New Zealand strain of Holstein-Friesian milk, respectively. In scenario 2 the value per liter of milk was 26.1, 32.6, and 28.9 cents for Irish Holstein-Friesian, Jersey, and New Zealand strain of Holstein-Friesian milk, respectively. Copyright © 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of Idealized Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on the Future Ocean and Land Carbon Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tjiputra, J.; Lauvset, S.

2017-12-01

Using a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we simulate stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on top of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 future scenario. Our idealized method prescribes aerosol concentration, linearly increasing from 2020 to 2100, and thereafter remaining constant until 2200. In one of the scenarios, the model able to project future warming below 2 degree toward 2100, despite greatier warming persists in the high latitudes. When SAI is terminated in 2100, a rapid global warming of 0.35 K yr-1 (as compared to 0.05 K yr-1 under RCP8.5) is simulated in the subsequent 10 years, and the global mean temperature rapidly returns to levels close to the reference state. In contrast to earlier findings, we show a weak response in the terrestrial carbon sink during SAI implementation in the 21st century, which we attribute to nitrogen limitation. The SAI increases the land carbon uptake in the temperate forest-, grassland-, and shrub-dominated regions. The resultant lower temperatures lead to a reduction in the heterotrophic respiration rate and increase soil carbon retention. Changes in precipitation patterns are key drivers for variability in vegetation carbon. Upon SAI termination, the level of vegetation carbon storage returns to the reference case, whereas the soil carbon remains high. The ocean absorbs nearly 10% more carbon in the geoengineered simulation than in the reference simulation, leading to a ˜15 ppm lower atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2100. The largest enhancement in uptake occurs in the North Atlantic. In both hemispheres' polar regions, SAI delays the sea ice melting and, consequently, export production remains low. Despite inducing little impact on surface acidification, in the deep water of North Atlantic, SAI-induced circulation changes accelerate the ocean acidification rate and broaden the affected area. Since the deep ocean provides vital ecosystem function and services, e.g., fish stocks, this accelerated changes could introduce broader negative impacts on human welfare.

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenovic, Pavle; Rozanov, Eugene; Anet, Julien; Stenke, Andrea; Schmutz, Werner; Peter, Thomas

2018-03-01

Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000-2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m-2, respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m-2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

Linking seasonal climate forecasts with crop models in Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa, Mirian; Ines, Amor; Baethgen, Walter; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Han, Eunjin; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2015-04-01

Translating seasonal climate forecasts into agricultural production forecasts could help to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. In this study, we use seasonal rainfall forecasts and crop models to improve predictability of wheat yield in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Additionally, we estimate economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecast. This study evaluates two methods for disaggregating seasonal climate forecasts into daily weather data: 1) a stochastic weather generator (CondWG), and 2) a forecast tercile resampler (FResampler). Both methods were used to generate 100 (with FResampler) and 110 (with CondWG) weather series/sequences for three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts. Simulated wheat yield is computed with the crop model CERES-wheat (Ritchie and Otter, 1985), which is included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5, Hoogenboom et al., 2010). Simulations were run at two locations in northeastern Spain where the crop model was calibrated and validated with independent field data. Once simulated yields were obtained, an assessment of farmer's gross margin for different seasonal climate forecasts was accomplished to estimate production risks under different climate scenarios. This methodology allows farmers to assess the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast in IP prior to the crop growing season. The results of this study may have important implications on both, public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors. Acknowledgements Research by M. Capa-Morocho has been partly supported by a PICATA predoctoral fellowship of the Moncloa Campus of International Excellence (UCM-UPM) and MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) References Hoogenboom, G. et al., 2010. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT).Version 4.5 [CD-ROM].University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii. Ritchie, J.T., Otter, S., 1985. Description and performanceof CERES-Wheat: a user-oriented wheat yield model. In: ARS Wheat Yield Project. ARS-38.Natl Tech Info Serv, Springfield, Missouri, pp. 159-175.

KB3D Reference Manual. Version 1.a

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munoz, Cesar; Siminiceanu, Radu; Carreno, Victor A.; Dowek, Gilles

2005-01-01

This paper is a reference manual describing the implementation of the KB3D conflict detection and resolution algorithm. The algorithm has been implemented in the Java and C++ programming languages. The reference manual gives a short overview of the detection and resolution functions, the structural implementation of the program, inputs and outputs to the program, and describes how the program is used. Inputs to the program can be rectangular coordinates or geodesic coordinates. The reference manual also gives examples of conflict scenarios and the resolution outputs the program produces.

An Exploration of Kernel Equating Using SAT® Data: Equating to a Similar Population and to a Distant Population. Research Report. ETS RR-07-17

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Jinghua; Low, Albert C.

2007-01-01

This study applied kernel equating (KE) in two scenarios: equating to a very similar population and equating to a very different population, referred to as a distant population, using SAT® data. The KE results were compared to the results obtained from analogous classical equating methods in both scenarios. The results indicate that KE results are…

Assessing cost-effectiveness of bioretention on stormwater in response to climate change and urbanization for future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mo; Zhang, Dongqing; Adhityan, Appan; Ng, Wun Jern; Dong, Jianwen; Tan, Soon Keat

2016-12-01

Bioretention, as a popular low impact development practice, has become more important to mitigate adverse impacts on urban stormwater. However, there is very limited information regarding ensuring the effectiveness of bioretention response to uncertain future challenges, especially when taking into consideration climate change and urbanization. The main objective of this paper is to identify the cost-effectiveness of bioretention by assessing the hydrology performance under future scenarios modeling. First, the hydrology model was used to obtain peak runoff and TSS loads of bioretention with variable scales under different scenarios, i.e., different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) for 2-year and 10-year design storms in Singapore. Then, life cycle costing (LCC) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were estimated for bioretention, and the cost-effectiveness was identified under different scenarios. Our finding showed that there were different degree of responses to 2-year and 10-year design storms but the general patterns and insights deduced were similar. The performance of bioretenion was more sensitive to urbanization than that for climate change in the urban catchment. In addition, it was noted that the methodology used in this study was generic and the findings could be useful as reference for other LID practices in response to climate change and urbanization.

Wealth distribution across communities of adaptive financial agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLellis, Pietro; Garofalo, Franco; Lo Iudice, Francesco; Napoletano, Elena

2015-08-01

This paper studies the trading volumes and wealth distribution of a novel agent-based model of an artificial financial market. In this model, heterogeneous agents, behaving according to the Von Neumann and Morgenstern utility theory, may mutually interact. A Tobin-like tax (TT) on successful investments and a flat tax are compared to assess the effects on the agents’ wealth distribution. We carry out extensive numerical simulations in two alternative scenarios: (i) a reference scenario, where the agents keep their utility function fixed, and (ii) a focal scenario, where the agents are adaptive and self-organize in communities, emulating their neighbours by updating their own utility function. Specifically, the interactions among the agents are modelled through a directed scale-free network to account for the presence of community leaders, and the herding-like effect is tested against the reference scenario. We observe that our model is capable of replicating the benefits and drawbacks of the two taxation systems and that the interactions among the agents strongly affect the wealth distribution across the communities. Remarkably, the communities benefit from the presence of leaders with successful trading strategies, and are more likely to increase their average wealth. Moreover, this emulation mechanism mitigates the decrease in trading volumes, which is a typical drawback of TTs.

Skin sensitisation quantitative risk assessment (QRA) based on aggregate dermal exposure to methylisothiazolinone in personal care and household cleaning products.

PubMed

Ezendam, J; Bokkers, B G H; Bil, W; Delmaar, J E

2018-02-01

Contact allergy to preservatives is an important public health problem. Ideally, new substances should be evaluated for the risk on skin sensitisation before market entry, for example by using a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as developed for fragrances. As a proof-of-concept, this QRA was applied to the preservative methylisothiazolinone (MI), a common cause of contact allergy. MI is used in different consumer products, including personal care products (PCPs) and household cleaning products (HCPs). Aggregate exposure to MI in PCPs and HCPs was therefore assessed with the Probabilistic Aggregated Consumer Exposure Model (PACEM). Two exposure scenarios were evaluated: scenario 1 calculated aggregate exposure on actual MI product concentrations before the restricted use in PCPs and scenario 2 calculated aggregate exposure using the restrictions for MI in PCPs. The QRA for MI showed that in scenarios 1 and 2, the proportion of the population at risk for skin sensitisation is 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The restricted use of MI in PCPs does not seem very effective in lowering the risk on skin sensitization. To conclude, it is important to consider aggregate exposure from the most important consumer products into consideration in the risk assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, under different policy scenarios.

PubMed

Sumarga, Elham; Hein, Lars

Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.

Juggling with Indianness in the Gestation of Translation with Special Reference to the English Translation of a Hindi Story

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Priya, K.

2014-01-01

This paper is an attempt to look closely at the process of translating dramas with special reference to the Hindi story Aadmi ka Baccha ("The Child of a Man") by Yashpal in India and the role and significance of prose transcreations in today's changing global scenario.

2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Langholtz, Matthew H.

With the goal of understanding environmental effects of a growing bioeconomy, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), national laboratories, and U.S. Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, undertook a study to estimate environmental effects of potential biomass production scenarios in the United States, with an emphasis on agricultural and forest biomass. Potential effects investigated include changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water quality and quantity, air emissions, and biodiversity. Effects of altered land-management regimes were analyzed based on select county-level biomass-production scenarios for 2017 and 2040 taken from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report:more » Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, which assumes that the land bases for agricultural and forestry would not change over time. The scenarios reflect constraints on biomass supply (e.g., excluded areas; implementation of management practices; and consideration of food, feed, forage, and fiber demands and exports) that intend to address sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, both beneficial and adverse environmental effects might be expected. To characterize these potential effects, this research sought to estimate where and under what modeled scenarios or conditions positive and negative environmental effects could occur nationwide. The report also includes a discussion of land-use change (LUC) (i.e., land management change) assumptions associated with the scenario transitions (but not including analysis of indirect LUC [ILUC]), analyses of climate sensitivity of feedstock productivity under a set of potential scenarios, and a qualitative environmental effects analysis of algae production under carbon dioxide (CO2) co-location scenarios. Because BT16 biomass supplies are simulated independent of a defined end use, most analyses do not include benefits from displacing fossil fuels or other products, with the exception of including a few illustrative cases on potential reductions in GHG emissions and fossil energy consumption associated with using biomass supplies for fuel, power, heat, and chemicals.« less

Carbon plants nutrition and global food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, Luigi

2017-02-01

To evaluate the effects of carbon nutrition on agricultural productivity, a physiological-process-based crop simulation model, driven by the 1961-1990 monthly climate data from global FAO dataset, was developed and applied to four crops (wheat, maize, rice and soybean -WMRS) which account for 64% of the global caloric consumption of humans. Five different temperatures and CO2 scenarios (current; glacial; pre-industrial; future_1 with 560 ppmv for CO2 and +2 °C for temperature; and future_2 with 800 ppmv for CO2 and +4 °C) were investigated. The relative values of WMRS global productions for past and future scenarios were, respectively, 49% of the present-day scenario for glacial, 82% for pre-industrial, 115% for future_1 and 124% for future_2. A sensitive growth of productivity of future scenarios (respectively to 117% and 134%) was observed if the northward shift of crops was allowed, and a strong increase was obtained without water limitation (from 151% to 157% for the five scenarios) and without biotic and abiotic stresses (from 30% to 40% for WMRS subject to the current scenario). Furthermore since the beginning of the Green Revolution (roughly happened between the '30s and the '50s of the twentieth century) production losses due to sub-optimal levels of CO2 and to biotic and abiotic stresses have been masked by the strong technological innovation trend still ongoing, which, in the last century, led to a strong increase in the global crop production (+400%-600%). These results show the crucial relevance of the future choices of research and development in agriculture (genetics, land reclamation, irrigation, plant protection, and so on) to ensure global food security.

Greenhouse gas emissions of realistic dietary choices in Denmark: the carbon footprint and nutritional value of dairy products

PubMed Central

Werner, Louise Bruun; Flysjö, Anna; Tholstrup, Tine

2014-01-01

Background Dairy products are important in a healthy diet due to their high nutritional value; they are, however, associated with relatively large greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) per kg product. When discussing the need to reduce the GHGE caused by the food system, it is crucial to consider the nutritional value of alternative food choices. Objective The objective of this study was to elucidate the role of dairy products in overall nutrition and to clarify the effects of dietary choices on GHGE, and to combine nutritional value and GHGE data. Methods We created eight dietary scenarios with different quantity of dairy products using data from the Danish National Dietary Survey (1995–2006). Nutrient composition and GHGE data for 71 highly consumed foods were used to estimate GHGE and nutritional status for each dietary scenario. An index was used to estimate nutrient density in relation to nutritional recommendation and climate impact for solid food items; high index values were those with the highest nutrient density scores in relation to the GHGE. Results The high-dairy scenario resulted in 27% higher protein, 13% higher vitamin D; 55% higher calcium; 48% higher riboflavin; and 18% higher selenium than the non-dairy scenario. There was a significant correlation between changes in calcium and changes in vitamin D, selenium, and riboflavin content (P=0.0001) throughout all of the diets. The estimated GHGE for the dietary scenario with average-dairy consumption was 4,631 g CO2e/day. Conclusions When optimizing a diet with regard to sustainability, it is crucial to account for the nutritional value and not solely focus on impact per kg product. Excluding dairy products from the diet does not necessarily mitigate climate change but in contrast may have nutritional consequences. PMID:24959114

Greenhouse gas emissions of realistic dietary choices in Denmark: the carbon footprint and nutritional value of dairy products.

PubMed

Werner, Louise Bruun; Flysjö, Anna; Tholstrup, Tine

2014-01-01

Dairy products are important in a healthy diet due to their high nutritional value; they are, however, associated with relatively large greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) per kg product. When discussing the need to reduce the GHGE caused by the food system, it is crucial to consider the nutritional value of alternative food choices. The objective of this study was to elucidate the role of dairy products in overall nutrition and to clarify the effects of dietary choices on GHGE, and to combine nutritional value and GHGE data. We created eight dietary scenarios with different quantity of dairy products using data from the Danish National Dietary Survey (1995-2006). Nutrient composition and GHGE data for 71 highly consumed foods were used to estimate GHGE and nutritional status for each dietary scenario. An index was used to estimate nutrient density in relation to nutritional recommendation and climate impact for solid food items; high index values were those with the highest nutrient density scores in relation to the GHGE. The high-dairy scenario resulted in 27% higher protein, 13% higher vitamin D; 55% higher calcium; 48% higher riboflavin; and 18% higher selenium than the non-dairy scenario. There was a significant correlation between changes in calcium and changes in vitamin D, selenium, and riboflavin content (P=0.0001) throughout all of the diets. The estimated GHGE for the dietary scenario with average-dairy consumption was 4,631 g CO2e/day. When optimizing a diet with regard to sustainability, it is crucial to account for the nutritional value and not solely focus on impact per kg product. Excluding dairy products from the diet does not necessarily mitigate climate change but in contrast may have nutritional consequences.

Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

PubMed

Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

2014-03-15

In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extending Climate Analytics as a Service to the Earth System Grid Federation Progress Report on the Reanalysis Ensemble Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

2016-12-01

We are extending climate analytics-as-a-service, including: (1) A high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting six major reanalysis data sets using advanced technologies like the Cloudera Impala-based SQL and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files. (2) A Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) that offers a basic set of commonly used operations over the reanalysis collections that are accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib. (3) An Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) WPS-compliant Web service interface to CDSLib to accommodate ESGF's Web service endpoints. This presentation will report on the overall progress of this effort, with special attention to recent enhancements that have been made to the Reanalysis Ensemble Service, including the following: - An CDSlib Python library that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services - A new reanalysis collections reference model to enable operator design and implementation - An enhanced library of sample queries to demonstrate and develop use case scenarios - Extended operators that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, and trend, climatology, and anomaly computations - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis and the initial integration of two additional reanalyses - A prototype Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive use case scenarios and personalized project management - Prototyped uncertainty quantification services that combine ensemble products with comparative observational products - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses, including basic subsetting and arithmetic operations over the data and extractions of trends, climatologies, and anomalies - The ability to compute and visualize multiple reanalysis intercomparisons

Pasture intensification is insufficient to relieve pressure on conservation priority areas in open agricultural markets.

PubMed

Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Kehoe, Laura; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander

2018-04-17

Agricultural expansion is a leading driver of biodiversity loss across the world, but little is known on how future land-use change may encroach on remaining natural vegetation. This uncertainty is, in part, due to unknown levels of future agricultural intensification and international trade. Using an economic land-use model, we assessed potential future losses of natural vegetation with a focus on how these may threaten biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. We analysed agricultural expansion under proactive and reactive biodiversity protection scenarios, and for different rates of pasture intensification. We found growing food demand to lead to a significant expansion of cropland at the expense of pastures and natural vegetation. In our reference scenario, global cropland area increased by more than 400 Mha between 2015 and 2050, mostly in Africa and Latin America. Grazing intensification was a main determinant of future land-use change. In Africa, higher rates of pasture intensification resulted in smaller losses of natural vegetation, and reduced pressure on biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. Investments into raising pasture productivity in conjunction with proactive land-use planning appear essential in Africa to reduce further losses of areas with high conservation value. In Latin America, in contrast, higher pasture productivity resulted in increased livestock exports, highlighting that unchecked trade can reduce the land savings of pasture intensification. Reactive protection of sensitive areas significantly reduced the conversion of natural ecosystems in Latin America. We conclude that protection strategies need to adapt to region-specific trade positions. In regions with a high involvement in international trade, area-based conservation measures should be preferred over strategies aimed at increasing pasture productivity, which by themselves might not be sufficient to protect biodiversity effectively. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prospective randomized comparison of standard didactic lecture versus high-fidelity simulation for radiology resident contrast reaction management training.

PubMed

Wang, Carolyn L; Schopp, Jennifer G; Petscavage, Jonelle M; Paladin, Angelisa M; Richardson, Michael L; Bush, William H

2011-06-01

The objective of our study was to assess whether high-fidelity simulation-based training is more effective than traditional didactic lecture to train radiology residents in the management of contrast reactions. This was a prospective study of 44 radiology residents randomized into a simulation group versus a lecture group. All residents attended a contrast reaction didactic lecture. Four months later, baseline knowledge was assessed with a written test, which we refer to as the "pretest." After the pretest, the 21 residents in the lecture group attended a repeat didactic lecture and the 23 residents in the simulation group underwent high-fidelity simulation-based training with five contrast reaction scenarios. Next, all residents took a second written test, which we refer to as the "posttest." Two months after the posttest, both groups took a third written test, which we refer to as the "delayed posttest," and underwent performance testing with a high-fidelity severe contrast reaction scenario graded on predefined critical actions. There was no statistically significant difference between the simulation and lecture group pretest, immediate posttest, or delayed posttest scores. The simulation group performed better than the lecture group on the severe contrast reaction simulation scenario (p = 0.001). The simulation group reported improved comfort in identifying and managing contrast reactions and administering medications after the simulation training (p ≤ 0.04) and was more comfortable than the control group (p = 0.03), which reported no change in comfort level after the repeat didactic lecture. When compared with didactic lecture, high-fidelity simulation-based training of contrast reaction management shows equal results on written test scores but improved performance during a high-fidelity severe contrast reaction simulation scenario.

Modeling the Response of Nutrient Concentrations and Primary Productivity in Lake Michigan to Nutrient Loading Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

A water quality model, LM3 Eutro, will be used to estimate the response of nutrient concentrations and primary productivity in Lake Michigan to nutrient loading scenarios. This work is part of a larger effort, the Future Midwestern landscapes study, that will estimate the produc...

Environmental impact of replacing soybean meal with rapeseed meal in diets of finishing pigs.

PubMed

van Zanten, H H E; Bikker, P; Mollenhorst, H; Meerburg, B G; de Boer, I J M

2015-11-01

The major impact of the livestock sector on the environment may be reduced by feeding agricultural co-products to animals. Since the last decade, co-products from biodiesel production, such as rapeseed meal (RSM), became increasingly available in Europe. Consequently, an increase in RSM content in livestock diets was observed at the expense of soybean meal (SBM) content. Cultivation of SBM is associated with high environmental impacts, especially when emissions related to land use change (LUC) are included. This study aims to assess the environmental impact of replacing SBM with RSM in finishing pig diets. As RSM has a lower nutritional value, we assessed the environmental impact of replacing SBM with RSM using scenarios that differed in handling changes in nutritional level. Scenario 1 (S1) was the basic scenario containing SBM. In scenario 2 (S2), RSM replaced SBM based on CP content, resulting in reduced energy and amino acid content, and hence an increased feed intake to realize the same growth rate. The diet of scenario 3 (S3) was identical to S2; however, we assumed that pigs were not able to increase their feed intake, leading to reduced growth performance. In scenario 4 (S4), the energy and amino acid content were increased to the same level of S1. Pig performances were simulated using a growth model. We analyzed the environmental impact of each scenario using life-cycle assessment, including processes of feed production, manure management, piglet production, enteric fermentation and housing. Results show that, expressed as per kg of BW, replacing SBM with RSM in finishing pig diets marginally decreased global warming potential (GWP) and energy use (EU) but decreased land use (LU) up to 12%. Between scenarios, S3 had the maximum potential to reduce the environmental impact, due to a lower impact per kg of feed and an increased body protein-to-lipid ratio of the pigs, resulting in a better feed conversion ratio. Optimization of the body protein-to-lipid ratio, therefore, might result in a reduced environmental impact of pig production. Furthermore, the impact of replacing SBM with RSM changed only marginally when emissions related to direct (up to 2.9%) and indirect LUC (up to 2.5%) were included. When we evaluated environmental impacts of feed production only, which implies excluding other processes along the chain as is generally found in the literature, GWP decreased up to 10%, including LUC, EU up to 5% and LU up to 16%.

Exposure caused by wireless technologies used for short-range indoor communication in homes and offices.

PubMed

Schmid, G; Lager, D; Preiner, P; Uberbacher, R; Cecil, S

2007-01-01

In order to estimate typical radio frequency exposures from indoor used wireless communication technologies applied in homes and offices, WLAN, Bluetooth and Digital Enhanced Cordless Telecommunications systems, as well as baby surveillance devices and wireless headphones for indoor usage, have been investigated by measurements and numerical computations. Based on optimised measurement methods, field distributions and resulting exposure were assessed on selected products and real exposure scenarios. Additionally, generic scenarios have been investigated on the basis of numerical computations. The obtained results demonstrate that under usual conditions the resulting spatially (over body dimensions) averaged and 6-min time-averaged exposure for persons in the radio frequency fields of the considered applications is below approximately 0.1% of the reference level for power density according to the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) guidelines published in 1998. Spatial and temporal peak values can be considerably higher by 2-3 orders of magnitude. In case of some transmitting devices operated in close proximity to the body (e.g. WLAN transmitters), local exposure can reach the same order of magnitude as the basic restriction; however, none of the devices considered in this study exceeded the limits according to the ICNIRP guidelines.

Impact of one's own mobile phone in stand-by mode on personal radiofrequency electromagnetic field exposure.

PubMed

Urbinello, Damiano; Röösli, Martin

2013-01-01

When moving around, mobile phones in stand-by mode periodically send data about their positions. The aim of this paper is to evaluate how personal radiofrequency electromagnetic field (RF-EMF) measurements are affected by such location updates. Exposure from a mobile phone handset (uplink) was measured during commuting by using a randomized cross-over study with three different scenarios: disabled mobile phone (reference), an activated dual-band phone and a quad-band phone. In the reference scenario, uplink exposure was highest during train rides (1.19 mW/m(2)) and lowest during car rides in rural areas (0.001 mW/m(2)). In public transports, the impact of one's own mobile phone on personal RF-EMF measurements was not observable because of high background uplink radiation from other people's mobile phone. In a car, uplink exposure with an activated phone was orders of magnitude higher compared with the reference scenario. This study demonstrates that personal RF-EMF exposure is affected by one's own mobile phone in stand-by mode because of its regular location update. Further dosimetric studies should quantify the contribution of location updates to the total RF-EMF exposure in order to clarify whether the duration of mobile phone use, the most common exposure surrogate in the epidemiological RF-EMF research, is actually an adequate exposure proxy.

Wildlife Scenario Builder and User's Guide (Version 1.0, Beta Test)

EPA Science Inventory

The Wildlife Scenario Builder (WSB) was developed to improve the quality of wildlif...

Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) Users’ Manual and Technical Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dunn, Jennifer B.; Qin, Zhangcai; Mueller, Steffen

The Carbon Calculator for Land Use Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) calculates carbon emissions from land use change (LUC) for four different ethanol production pathways including corn grain ethanol and cellulosic ethanol from corn stover, Miscanthus, and switchgrass, and a soy biodiesel pathway. This document discusses the version of CCLUB released September 30, 2017 which includes five ethanol LUC scenarios and four soy biodiesel LUC scenarios.

Differences in case-mix can influence the comparison of standardised mortality ratios even with optimal risk adjustment: an analysis of data from paediatric intensive care.

PubMed

Manktelow, Bradley N; Evans, T Alun; Draper, Elizabeth S

2014-09-01

The publication of clinical outcomes for consultant surgeons in 10 specialties within the NHS has, along with national clinical audits, highlighted the importance of measuring and reporting outcomes with the aim of monitoring quality of care. Such information is vital to be able to identify good and poor practice and to inform patient choice. The need to adequately adjust outcomes for differences in case-mix has long been recognised as being necessary to provide 'like-for-like' comparisons between providers. However, directly comparing values of the standardised mortality ratio (SMR) between different healthcare providers can be misleading even when the risk-adjustment perfectly quantifies the risk of a poor outcome in the reference population. An example is shown from paediatric intensive care. Using observed case-mix differences for 33 paediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in the UK and Ireland for 2009-2011, SMRs were calculated under four different scenarios where, in each scenario, all of the PICUs were performing identically for each patient type. Each scenario represented a clinically plausible difference in outcome from the reference population. Despite the fact that the outcome for any patient was the same no matter which PICU they were to be admitted to, differences between the units were seen when compared using the SMR: scenario 1, 1.07-1.21; scenario 2, 1.00-1.14; scenario 3, 1.04-1.13; scenario 4, 1.00-1.09. Even if two healthcare providers are performing equally for each type of patient, if their patient populations differ in case-mix their SMRs will not necessarily take the same value. Clinical teams and commissioners must always keep in mind this weakness of the SMR when making decisions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

2018-04-01

Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards and by using concrete reference points to describe flooding scenarios rather than exceedance probabilities or frequencies.

An Integrated Cyberenvironment for Event-Driven Environmental Observatory Research and Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, J.; Minsker, B.; Butler, R.

2006-12-01

National environmental observatories will soon provide large-scale data from diverse sensor networks and community models. While much attention is focused on piping data from sensors to archives and users, truly integrating these resources into the everyday research activities of scientists and engineers across the community, and enabling their results and innovations to be brought back into the observatory, also critical to long-term success of the observatories, is often neglected. This talk will give an overview of the Environmental Cyberinfrastructure Demonstrator (ECID) Cyberenvironment for observatory-centric environmental research and education, under development at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA), which is designed to address these issues. Cyberenvironments incorporate collaboratory and grid technologies, web services, and other cyberinfrastructure into an overall framework that balances needs for efficient coordination and the ability to innovate. They are designed to support the full scientific lifecycle both in terms of individual experiments moving from data to workflows to publication and at the macro level where new discoveries lead to additional data, models, tools, and conceptual frameworks that augment and evolve community-scale systems such as observatories. The ECID cyberenvironment currently integrates five major components a collaborative portal, workflow engine, event manager, metadata repository, and social network personalization capabilities - that have novel features inspired by the Cyberenvironment concept and enabling powerful environmental research scenarios. A summary of these components and the overall cyberenvironment will be given in this talk, while other posters will give details on several of the components. The summary will be presented within the context of environmental use case scenarios created in collaboration with researchers from the WATERS (WATer and Environmental Research Systems) Network, a joint National Science Foundation-funded initiative of the hydrology and environmental engineering communities. The use case scenarios include identifying sensor anomalies in point- and streaming sensor data and notifying data managers in near-real time; and referring users of data or data products (e.g., workflows, publications) to related data or data products.

Experimental Optimization of Exposure Index and Quality of Service in Wlan Networks.

PubMed

Plets, David; Vermeeren, Günter; Poorter, Eli De; Moerman, Ingrid; Goudos, Sotirios K; Luc, Martens; Wout, Joseph

2017-07-01

This paper presents the first real-life optimization of the Exposure Index (EI). A genetic optimization algorithm is developed and applied to three real-life Wireless Local Area Network scenarios in an experimental testbed. The optimization accounts for downlink, uplink and uplink of other users, for realistic duty cycles, and ensures a sufficient Quality of Service to all users. EI reductions up to 97.5% compared to a reference configuration can be achieved in a downlink-only scenario, in combination with an improved Quality of Service. Due to the dominance of uplink exposure and the lack of WiFi power control, no optimizations are possible in scenarios that also consider uplink traffic. However, future deployments that do implement WiFi power control can be successfully optimized, with EI reductions up to 86% compared to a reference configuration and an EI that is 278 times lower than optimized configurations under the absence of power control. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparative techno-economic assessment and LCA of selected integrated sugarcane-based biorefineries.

PubMed

Gnansounou, Edgard; Vaskan, Pavel; Pachón, Elia Ruiz

2015-11-01

This work addresses the economic and environmental performance of integrated biorefineries based on sugarcane juice and residues. Four multiproduct scenarios were considered; two from sugar mills and the others from ethanol distilleries. They are integrated biorefineries producing first (1G) and second (2G) generation ethanol, sugar, molasses (for animal feed) and electricity in the context of Brazil. The scenarios were analysed and compared using techno-economic value-based approach and LCA methodology. The results show that the best economic configuration is provided by a scenario with largest ethanol production while the best environmental performance is presented by a scenario with full integration sugar - 1G2G ethanol production. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plant growth and mineral recycle trade-offs in different scenarios for a CELSS. [Closed Ecological Life Support System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballou, E. V.; Wydeven, T.; Spitze, L. A.

1982-01-01

Data for hydroponic plant growth in a manned system test is combined with nutritional recommendations to suport trade-off calculations for closed and partially closed life support system scenarios. Published data are used as guidelines for the masses of mineral nutrients needed for higher plant production. The results of calculations based on various scenarios are presented for various combinations of plant growth chamber utilization and fraction of mineral recycle. Estimates are made of the masses of material needed to meet human nutritional requirements in the various scenarios. It appears that food production from a plant growth chamber with mineral recycle is favorable to reduction of the total launch weight in missions exceeding 3 years.

Alaska OCS socioeconomic studies program: St. George basin petroleum development scenarios, Anchorage impact analysis. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ender, R.L.; Gorski, S.

1981-10-01

The report consists of an update to the Anchorage socioeconomic and physical baseline and infrastructure standards used to forecast impacts with and without OCS oil and gas development in Alaska. This material is found in Technical Report 43, Volumes 1 and 2 entitled 'Gulf of Alaska and Lower Cook Inlet Petroleum Development Scenarios, Anchorage Socioeconomic and Physical Baseline and Anchorage Impact Analysis.' These updates should be read in conjunction with the above report. In addition, the Anchorage base case and petroleum development scenarios for the St. George Basin are given. These sections are written to stand alone without reference.

Selection and Training of Field Artillery Forward Observers: Methodologies for Improving Target Acquisition Skills

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-07-01

African scenario.) The training analysis revealed some discrepancies between the list of tasks taught in FAOBC and the list of tasks emerging from the...I tD ’. 0C-) Q) 4- ) 0 N 4- _ L ~~1 CC 0 -- .0 I 4 J0C cog 1 . wi. I -4 1- Co4- ~a) U’ cu ) 0o 0 0 CDm 0 -% o c u- CO 0) -* -- cN- LO) C’I) NO 0 - CV...population density. (Refer to Figure 3-2). The African combat scenario, closely followed by the Middle Eastern scenario, was rated as being the most

EPHECT I: European household survey on domestic use of consumer products and development of worst-case scenarios for daily use.

PubMed

Dimitroulopoulou, C; Lucica, E; Johnson, A; Ashmore, M R; Sakellaris, I; Stranger, M; Goelen, E

2015-12-01

Consumer products are frequently and regularly used in the domestic environment. Realistic estimates for product use are required for exposure modelling and health risk assessment. This paper provides significant data that can be used as input for such modelling studies. A European survey was conducted, within the framework of the DG Sanco-funded EPHECT project, on the household use of 15 consumer products. These products are all-purpose cleaners, kitchen cleaners, floor cleaners, glass and window cleaners, bathroom cleaners, furniture and floor polish products, combustible air fresheners, spray air fresheners, electric air fresheners, passive air fresheners, coating products for leather and textiles, hair styling products, spray deodorants and perfumes. The analysis of the results from the household survey (1st phase) focused on identifying consumer behaviour patterns (selection criteria, frequency of use, quantities, period of use and ventilation conditions during product use). This can provide valuable input to modelling studies, as this information is not reported in the open literature. The above results were further analysed (2nd phase), to provide the basis for the development of 'most representative worst-case scenarios' regarding the use of the 15 products by home-based population groups (housekeepers and retired people), in four geographical regions in Europe. These scenarios will be used for the exposure and health risk assessment within the EPHECT project. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that daily worst-case scenarios are presented in the scientific published literature concerning the use of a wide range of 15 consumer products across Europe. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of co-products on the life-cycle impacts of microalgal biodiesel.

PubMed

Soratana, Kullapa; Barr, William J; Landis, Amy E

2014-05-01

Microalgal biodiesel production has been investigated for decades, yet it is not commercially available. Part of the problem is that the production process is energy and chemical intensive due, in part, to the high portion of microalgal biomass left as residues. This study investigated cradle-to-gate life-cycle environmental impacts from six different scenarios of microalgal biodiesel and its co-products. Ozone depletion, global warming, photochemical smog formation, acidification and eutrophication potentials were assessed using the Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI). Monte Carlo Analysis was conducted to investigate the processes with major contribution in each impact category. The market opportunity for each co-product was examined based on supply, demand and prices of the products that could potentially be substituted by the co-products. The results indicated that the scenario with the least life-cycle environmental impacts in all the five impact categories with the highest net energy ratio was the scenario utilizing a multitude of co-products including bioethanol from lipid-extracted microalgae (LEA), biomethane (to produce electricity and heat) from simultaneous saccharification-fermentation (SSF) residues, land-applied material from SSF residue anaerobic digestion (AD) solid digestate, recycling nutrients from SSF residue AD liquid digestate and CO2 recovered from SSF process contributed. Decreasing the energy consumption of the centrifuge in the land-applied material production process and increasing the lipid content of microalgae can reduce environmental footprints of the co-products. The same scenario also had the highest total income indicating their potential as co-products in the market. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Orientation and metacognition in virtual space.

PubMed

Tenbrink, Thora; Salwiczek, Lucie H

2016-05-01

Cognitive scientists increasingly use virtual reality scenarios to address spatial perception, orientation, and navigation. If based on desktops rather than mobile immersive environments, this involves a discrepancy between the physically experienced static position and the visually perceived dynamic scene, leading to cognitive challenges that users of virtual worlds may or may not be aware of. The frequently reported loss of orientation and worse performance in point-to-origin tasks relate to the difficulty of establishing a consistent reference system on an allocentric or egocentric basis. We address the verbalizability of spatial concepts relevant in this regard, along with the conscious strategies reported by participants. Behavioral and verbal data were collected using a perceptually sparse virtual tunnel scenario that has frequently been used to differentiate between humans' preferred reference systems. Surprisingly, the linguistic data we collected relate to reference system verbalizations known from the earlier literature only to a limited extent, but instead reveal complex cognitive mechanisms and strategies. Orientation in desktop virtual reality appears to pose considerable challenges, which participants react to by conceptualizing the task in individual ways that do not systematically relate to the generic concepts of egocentric and allocentric reference frames. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Mitigating the environmental impacts of milk production via anaerobic digestion of manure: case study of a dairy farm in the Po Valley.

PubMed

Battini, F; Agostini, A; Boulamanti, A K; Giuntoli, J; Amaducci, S

2014-05-15

This work analyzes the environmental impacts of milk production in an intensive dairy farm situated in the Northern Italy region of the Po Valley. Three manure management scenarios are compared: in Scenario 1 the animal slurry is stored in an open tank and then used as fertilizer. In scenario 2 the manure is processed in an anaerobic digestion plant and the biogas produced is combusted in an internal combustion engine to produce heat (required by the digester) and electricity (exported). Scenario 3 is similar to scenario 2 but the digestate is stored in a gas-tight tank. In scenario 1 the GHG emissions are estimated to be equal to 1.21 kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) Fat and Protein Corrected Milk (FPCM) without allocation of the environmental burden to the by-product meat. With mass allocation, the GHG emissions associated to the milk are reduced to 1.18 kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) FPCM. Using an economic allocation approach the GHG emissions allocated to the milk are 1.13 kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) FPCM. In scenarios 2 and 3, without allocation, the GHG emissions are reduced respectively to 0.92 (-23.7%) and 0.77 (-36.5%) kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) FPCM. If land use change due to soybean production is accounted for, an additional emission of 0.53 kg CO2 eq. should be added, raising the GHG emissions to 1.74, 1.45 and 1.30 kg CO2 eq kg(-1) FPCM in scenarios 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Primary energy from non-renewable resources decreases by 36.2% and 40.6% in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, with the valorization of the manure in the biogas plant. The other environmental impact mitigated is marine eutrophication that decreases by 8.1% in both scenarios 2 and 3, mostly because of the lower field emissions. There is, however, a trade-off between non-renewable energy and GHG savings and other environmental impacts: acidification (+6.1% and +5.5% in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively), particulate matter emissions (+1.4% and +0.7%) and photochemical ozone formation potential (+41.6% and +42.3%) increase with the adoption of a biogas plant. The cause of the increase is mostly emissions from the CHP engine. These impacts can be tackled by improving biogas combustion technologies to reduce methane and NOx emissions. Freshwater eutrophication slightly increases (+0.8% in both scenarios 2 and 3) because of the additional infrastructures needed. In conclusion, on-farm manure anaerobic digestion with the production of electricity is an effective technology to significantly reduce global environmental impacts of dairy farms (GHG emissions and non-renewable energy consumption), however local impacts may increase as a consequence (especially photochemical ozone formation). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 2: Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Langholtz, Matthew H.; Johnson, Kristen

With the goal of understanding environmental effects of a growing bioeconomy, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), national laboratories, and U.S. Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, undertook a study to estimate environmental effects of potential biomass production scenarios in the United States, with an emphasis on agricultural and forest biomass. Potential effects investigated include changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water quality and quantity, air emissions, and biodiversity. Effects of altered land-management regimes were analyzed based on select county-level biomass-production scenarios for 2017 and 2040 taken from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report:more » Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, which assumes that the land bases for agricultural and forestry would not change over time. The scenarios reflect constraints on biomass supply (e.g., excluded areas; implementation of management practices; and consideration of food, feed, forage, and fiber demands and exports) that intend to address sustainability concerns. Nonetheless, both beneficial and adverse environmental effects might be expected. To characterize these potential effects, this research sought to estimate where and under what modeled scenarios or conditions positive and negative environmental effects could occur nationwide. The report also includes a discussion of land-use change (LUC) (i.e., land management change) assumptions associated with the scenario transitions (but not including analysis of indirect LUC [ILUC]), analyses of climate sensitivity of feedstock productivity under a set of potential scenarios, and a qualitative environmental effects analysis of algae production under carbon dioxide (CO 2) co-location scenarios. Because BT16 biomass supplies are simulated independent of a defined end use, most analyses do not include benefits from displacing fossil fuels or other products, with the exception of including a few illustrative cases on potential reductions in GHG emissions and fossil energy consumption associated with using biomass supplies for fuel, power, heat, and chemicals. Most analyses in volume 2 show potential for a substantial increase in biomass production with minimal or negligible environmental effects under the biomass supply constraints assumed in BT16. Although corn ethanol has been shown to achieve GHG emissions improvements over fossil fuels, cellulosic biomass shows further improvements in certain environmental indicators covered in this report. The harvest of agricultural and forestry residues generally shows the smallest contributions to changes in certain environmental indicators investigated. The scenarios show national-level net SOC gains. When expanding the system boundary in illustrative cases that consider biomass end use, reductions in GHG emissions are estimated for scenarios in which biomass—rather than oil, coal, and natural gas—is used to produce fuel, power, heat, and chemicals. Analyses of water quality reveal that there could be tradeoffs between biomass productivity and some water quality indicators, but better outcomes for both biomass productivity and water quality can be achieved with selected conservation practices. Biodiversity analyses show possible habitat benefits to some species, with other species showing potential adverse effects that may require additional safeguards. Increasing productivity of algae can reduce GHG emissions and water consumption associated with producing algal biomass, though the effects of water consumption are likely of greater concern in some regions than in others. Moreover, the effects of climate change on potential biomass production show gains and losses in yield among feedstocks across the continental United States. Key research gaps and priorities include actions that can enhance benefits and reduce potential for negative effects of increased biomass production. The results from this report will help DOE, the bioenergy industry, and other institutions continue important discussions on environmental effects and will help chart a path toward a more environmentally sustainable bioeconomy.« less

Integration of production and financial models to analyse the financial impact of livestock diseases: a case study of Schmallenberg virus disease on British and French dairy farms

PubMed Central

Häsler, Barbara; Alarcon, Pablo; Raboisson, Didier; Waret-Szkuta, Agnes; Rushton, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Aims and objectives The aim of the study was to investigate and compare the financial impact of Schmallenberg disease for different dairy production types in the United Kingdom and France. Materials and methods Integrated production and financial models for dairy cattle were developed and applied to Schmallenberg virus (SBV) disease in a British and French context. The five main production systems that prevail in these two countries were considered. Their respective gross margins measuring the holding's profitability were calculated based on public benchmarking, literature and expert opinion data. A partial budget analysis was performed within each production model to estimate the impact of SBV in the systems modelled. Two disease scenarios were simulated: low impact and high impact. Results The model gross margin obtained per cow space and year ranged from £1014 to £1484 for the UK and from £1037 to £1890 for France depending on the production system considered. In the UK, the net SBV disease costs in £/cow space/year for an average dairy farm with 100 milking spaces were estimated between £16.3 and £51.4 in the high-impact scenario and between £8.2 and £25.9 in the low-impact scenario. For France, the net SBV disease costs in £/cow space/year ranged from £19.6 to £48.6 in the high-impact scenario and £9.7 to £22.8 in the low-impact scenario, respectively. Conclusion The study illustrates how the combination of production and financial models allows assessing disease impact taking into account differing management and husbandry practices and associated price structures in the dairy sector. It supports decision-making of farmers and veterinarians who are considering disease control measures as it provides an approach to estimate baseline disease impact in common dairy production systems in the UK and France. PMID:26392883

Industrial water resources management based on violation risk analysis of the total allowable target on wastewater discharge.

PubMed

Yue, Wencong; Cai, Yanpeng; Xu, Linyu; Yang, Zhifeng; Yin, Xin'An; Su, Meirong

2017-07-11

To improve the capabilities of conventional methodologies in facilitating industrial water allocation under uncertain conditions, an integrated approach was developed through the combination of operational research, uncertainty analysis, and violation risk analysis methods. The developed approach can (a) address complexities of industrial water resources management (IWRM) systems, (b) facilitate reflections of multiple uncertainties and risks of the system and incorporate them into a general optimization framework, and (c) manage robust actions for industrial productions in consideration of water supply capacity and wastewater discharging control. The developed method was then demonstrated in a water-stressed city (i.e., the City of Dalian), northeastern China. Three scenarios were proposed according to the city's industrial plans. The results indicated that in the planning year of 2020 (a) the production of civilian-used steel ships and machine-made paper & paperboard would reduce significantly, (b) violation risk of chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge under scenario 1 would be the most prominent, compared with those under scenarios 2 and 3, (c) the maximal total economic benefit under scenario 2 would be higher than the benefit under scenario 3, and (d) the production of rolling contact bearing, rail vehicles, and commercial vehicles would be promoted.

Illness related wage and productivity losses: Valuing 'presenteeism'.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Sun, Huiying; Woodcock, Simon; Anis, Aslam

2015-12-01

One source of productivity loss due to illness is the reduced "quantity" or "quality" of labor input while working, often referred to as presenteeism. Illness-related presenteeism has been found to be potentially more costly than absenteeism. To value presenteeism, existing methods use wages as a proxy for marginal productivity at the firm level. However, wage may not equal marginal productivity in some scenarios. One instance is when a job involves team production and perfect substitutes for workers are not readily available. Using a Canadian linked employer-employee survey (2001-2005), we test whether relative wage equals relative marginal productivity among team workers and non-team workers with different frequencies of presenteeism (reduction at work due to illness). For the pooled cross-sectional estimates (2001, 2003, 2005) we obtain 13,755 observations with 6842 unique workplaces. There are 6490 observations for the first differences estimates from the odd years and 5263 observations for the first differences estimates from 2001 to 2002 and 2003 to 2004. We find that in both small and large firms, team workers with frequent reductions at work are less productive but earn similarly compared with non-team workers without reductions. We also find that in small firms, workers with occasional work reductions are more productive than workers without reductions, but the reverse is true in large firms. The study findings partially support the literature stating that productivity loss resulting from employee presenteeism could exceed wages if team work is involved. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global economic-biophysical assessment of midterm scenarios for agricultural markets—biofuel policies, dietary patterns, cropland expansion, and productivity growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delzeit, Ruth; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Mauser, Wolfram

2018-02-01

Land-use decisions are made at the local level. They are influenced both by local factors and by global drivers and trends. These will most likely change over time e.g. due to political shocks, market developments or climate change. Hence, their influence should be taken into account when analysing and projecting local land-use decisions. We provide a set of mid-term scenarios of global drivers (until 2030) for use in regional and local studies on agriculture and land-use. In a participatory process, four important drivers are identified by experts from globally distributed regional studies: biofuel policies, increase in preferences for meat and dairy products in Asia, cropland expansion into uncultivated areas, and changes in agricultural productivity growth. Their impact on possible future developments of global and regional agricultural markets are analysed with a modelling framework consisting of a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop growth model. The business as usual (BAU) scenario causes production and prices of crops to rise over time. It also leads to a conversion of pasture land to cropland. Under different scenarios, global price changes range between -42 and +4% in 2030 compared to the BAU. An abolishment of biofuel targets does not significantly improve food security while an increased agricultural productivity and cropland expansion have a stronger impact on changes in food production and prices.

Estimation of incremental reactivities for multiple day scenarios: an application to ethane and dimethyoxymethane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockwell, William R.; Geiger, Harald; Becker, Karl H.

Single-day scenarios are used to calculate incremental reactivities by definition (Carter, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 44 (1994) 881-899.) but even unreactive organic compounds may have a non-negligible effect on ozone concentrations if multiple-day scenarios are considered. The concentration of unreactive compounds and their products may build up over a multiple-day period and the oxidation products may be highly reactive or highly unreactive affecting the overall incremental reactivity of the organic compound. We have developed a method for calculating incremental reactivities for multiple days based on a standard scenario for polluted European conditions. This method was used to estimate maximum incremental reactivities (MIR) and maximum ozone incremental reactivities (MOIR) for ethane and dimethyoxymethane for scenarios ranging from 1 to 6 days. It was found that the incremental reactivities increased as the length of the simulation period increased. The MIR of ethane increased faster than the value for dimethyoxymethane as the scenarios became longer. The MOIRs of ethane and dimethyoxymethane increased but the change was more modest for scenarios longer than 3 days. MOIRs of both volatile organic compounds were equal within the uncertainties of their chemical mechanisms by the 5 day scenario. These results show that dimethyoxymethane has an ozone forming potential on a per mass basis that is only somewhat greater than ethane if multiple-day scenarios are considered.

Photobioreactor: Biotechnology for the Technology Education Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunham, Trey; Wells, John; White, Karissa

2002-01-01

Describes a problem scenario involving photobioreactors and presents materials and resources, student project activities, and teaching and evaluation methods for use in the technology education classroom. (Contains 14 references.) (SK)

Potential effects of four Flaming Gorge Dam hydropower operational scenarios on the fishes of the Green River, Utah and Colorado

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hlohowskyj, I.; Hayse, J.W.

1995-09-01

Aerial videography and modeling were used to evaluate the impacts of four hydropower operational scenarios at Flaming Gorge Dam, Utah, on trout and native fishes in the Green River, Utah and Colorado. The four operational scenarios studied were year-round high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted high fluctuations, seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations, and seasonally adjusted steady flows. Impacts on trout were evaluated by examining differences among scenarios in the areas of inundated substrates that serve as spawning and feeding habitat. All scenarios would provide at least 23 acres per mile of habitat for spawning and food production; seasonally adjusted operations would provide additionalmore » areas during periods of sustained high release. Seasonally adjusted high fluctuations would increase inundated areas by 12 to 26% for a short period in winter and spring, but food production and reproduction would not be expected to increase. Seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuations and steady flows would produce similar increases in area, but the longer period of inundation could also result in increased food production and provide additional spawning sites for trout. Impacts on native fishes were assessed by examining daily changes in backwater nursery areas. Compared with year-round high fluctuations, the daily changes in backwater area would decrease by about 47, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. Similarly, daily stage fluctuations during the nursery period would decrease by 72, 89, and 100% under the seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, moderate fluctuation, and steady flow scenarios, respectively. These reductions in daily fluctuations in backwater area and stage would improve conditions in nursery habitats and could in turn improve recruitment and overwinter survival. Introduced fish species could also benefit from the seasonally adjusted operational scenarios.« less

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

2015-07-01

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate scenarios is evident in most areas, the combination of rainfall patterns and increased photosynthesis efficiency due to CO2 concentrations showed possible improvements of production patterns in some areas, including Southern Europe. The uncertainty deriving from GCM realizations with respect to rainfall suggests that articulated and detailed testing of adaptation techniques would be redundant. Using ensemble simulations would allow for the identification of areas where adaptation, like those simulated, may be run autonomously by farmers, hence not requiring specific intervention in terms of support policies.

Improving the spatial and temporal resolution with quantification of uncertainty and errors in earth observation data sets using Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Serafy, Ghada; Gaytan Aguilar, Sandra; Ziemba, Alexander

2016-04-01

There is an increasing use of process-based models in the investigation of ecological systems and scenario predictions. The accuracy and quality of these models are improved when run with high spatial and temporal resolution data sets. However, ecological data can often be difficult to collect which manifests itself through irregularities in the spatial and temporal domain of these data sets. Through the use of Data INterpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions(DINEOF) methodology, earth observation products can be improved to have full spatial coverage within the desired domain as well as increased temporal resolution to daily and weekly time step, those frequently required by process-based models[1]. The DINEOF methodology results in a degree of error being affixed to the refined data product. In order to determine the degree of error introduced through this process, the suspended particulate matter and chlorophyll-a data from MERIS is used with DINEOF to produce high resolution products for the Wadden Sea. These new data sets are then compared with in-situ and other data sources to determine the error. Also, artificial cloud cover scenarios are conducted in order to substantiate the findings from MERIS data experiments. Secondly, the accuracy of DINEOF is explored to evaluate the variance of the methodology. The degree of accuracy is combined with the overall error produced by the methodology and reported in an assessment of the quality of DINEOF when applied to resolution refinement of chlorophyll-a and suspended particulate matter in the Wadden Sea. References [1] Sirjacobs, D.; Alvera-Azcárate, A.; Barth, A.; Lacroix, G.; Park, Y.; Nechad, B.; Ruddick, K.G.; Beckers, J.-M. (2011). Cloud filling of ocean colour and sea surface temperature remote sensing products over the Southern North Sea by the Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions methodology. J. Sea Res. 65(1): 114-130. Dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2010.08.002

Environmental implications of anaerobic digestion for manure management in dairy farms in Mexico: a life cycle perspective.

PubMed

Rivas-García, Pasiano; Botello-Álvarez, José E; Abel Seabra, Joaquim E; da Silva Walter, Arnaldo C; Estrada-Baltazar, Alejandro

2015-01-01

The environmental profile of milk production in Mexico was analysed for three manure management scenarios: fertilization (F), anaerobic digestion (AD) and enhanced anaerobic digestion (EAD). The study used the life cycle assessment (LCA) technique, considering a 'cradle-to-gate' approach. The assessment model was constructed using SimaPro LCA software, and the life cycle impact assessment was performed according to the ReCiPe method. Dairy farms with AD and EAD scenarios were found to exhibit, respectively, 12% and 27% less greenhouse gas emissions, 58% and 31% less terrestrial acidification, and 3% and 18% less freshwater eutrophication than the F scenario. A different trend was observed in the damage to resource availability indicator, as the F scenario presented 6% and 22% less damage than the EAD and AD scenarios, respectively. The magnitude of environmental damage from milk production in the three dairy manure management scenarios, using a general single score indicator, was 0.118, 0.107 and 0.081 Pt/L of milk for the F, AD and EAD scenarios, respectively. These results indicate that manure management systems with anaerobic digestion can improve the environmental profile of each litre of milk produced.

Confrontation of the Magnetically Arrested Disc scenario with observations of FR II sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusinek, Katarzyna; Sikora, Marek

2017-10-01

The main aim of our work was to check whether powers of jets in FR II radio galaxies (RGs) and quasars (QSOs) can be reproduced by the Magnetically Arrested Disc (MAD) scenario. Assuming that established in the recent numerical simulations of the MAD scenario the (H/R)^2 dependence of the jet production efficiency is correct, we demonstrate that in order to reproduce the observed jet powers in FR II sources: (i) accretion discs must be geometrically much thicker than the standard ones; (ii) and/or that the jet production is strongly modulated.

The Effect of Converting to a U.S. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Fleet on Emissions and Energy Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colella, W. G.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Golden, D. M.

2004-12-01

This study analyzes the potential change in emissions and energy use from replacing fossil-fuel based vehicles with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. This study examines three different hydrogen production scenarios to determine their resultant emissions and energy usage: hydrogen produced via 1) steam reforming of methane, 2) coal gasification, or 3) wind electrolysis. The atmospheric model simulations require two primary sets of data: the actual emissions associated with hydrogen fuel production and use, and the corresponding reduction in emissions associated with reducing fossil fuel use. The net change in emissions is derived using 1) the U.S. EPA's National Emission Inventory (NEI) that incorporates several hundred categories of on-road vehicles and 2) a Process Chain Analysis (PCA) for the different hydrogen production scenarios. NEI: The quantity of hydrogen-related emission is ultimately a function of the projected hydrogen consumption in on-road vehicles. Data for hydrogen consumption from on-road vehicles was derived from the number of miles driven in each U.S. county based on 1999 NEI data, the average fleet mileage of all on-road vehicles, the average gasoline vehicle efficiency, and the efficiency of advanced 2004 fuel cell vehicles. PCA: PCA involves energy and mass balance calculations around the fuel extraction, production, transport, storage, and delivery processes. PCA was used to examine three different hydrogen production scenarios: In the first scenario, hydrogen is derived from natural gas, which is extracted from gas fields, stored, chemically processed, and transmitted through pipelines to distributed fuel processing units. The fuel processing units, situated in similar locations as gasoline refueling stations, convert natural gas to hydrogen via a combination of steam reforming and fuel oxidation. Purified hydrogen is compressed for use onboard fuel cell vehicles. In the second scenario, hydrogen is derived from coal, which is extracted from mines and chemically processed into a hydrogen rich gas. Hydrogen is transmitted through pipelines to refueling stations. In the third scenario, hydrogen is derived via electrolysis powered by wind-generated electricity that has been transmitted across the country to electrolyzers at distributed hydrogen refueling stations. If hydrogen is produced via the first scenario, total annual U.S. production of carbon dioxide (CO2) could be expected to decrease by approximately 900 million metric tons, or 16 percent of annual U.S. CO2 production from all anthropogenic sources. Under this scenario, compared with the conventional vehicle fleet, a fuel cell vehicle fleet would produce some additional CO2 emissions due to the electric power required for the compression of hydrogen, but less CO2 emissions on the road during vehicle operation. This scenario results in an additional methane leakage of approximately one million metric tons per year, or 4 percent of annual U.S. methane emissions from all anthropogenic sources.

Climate balance of biogas upgrading systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pertl, A., E-mail: andreas.pertl@boku.ac.a; Mostbauer, P.; Obersteiner, G.

2010-01-15

One of the numerous applications of renewable energy is represented by the use of upgraded biogas where needed by feeding into the gas grid. The aim of the present study was to identify an upgrading scenario featuring minimum overall GHG emissions. The study was based on a life-cycle approach taking into account also GHG emissions resulting from plant cultivation to the process of energy conversion. For anaerobic digestion two substrates have been taken into account: (1) agricultural resources and (2) municipal organic waste. The study provides results for four different upgrading technologies including the BABIU (Bottom Ash for Biogas Upgrading)more » method. As the transport of bottom ash is a critical factor implicated in the BABIU-method, different transport distances and means of conveyance (lorry, train) have been considered. Furthermore, aspects including biogas compression and energy conversion in a combined heat and power plant were assessed. GHG emissions from a conventional energy supply system (natural gas) have been estimated as reference scenario. The main findings obtained underlined how the overall reduction of GHG emissions may be rather limited, for example for an agricultural context in which PSA-scenarios emit only 10% less greenhouse gases than the reference scenario. The BABIU-method constitutes an efficient upgrading method capable of attaining a high reduction of GHG emission by sequestration of CO{sub 2}.« less

The International Experimental Thermal Hydraulic Systems database – TIETHYS: A new NEA validation tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rohatgi, Upendra S.

Nuclear reactor codes require validation with appropriate data representing the plant for specific scenarios. The thermal-hydraulic data is scattered in different locations and in different formats. Some of the data is in danger of being lost. A relational database is being developed to organize the international thermal hydraulic test data for various reactor concepts and different scenarios. At the reactor system level, that data is organized to include separate effect tests and integral effect tests for specific scenarios and corresponding phenomena. The database relies on the phenomena identification sections of expert developed PIRTs. The database will provide a summary ofmore » appropriate data, review of facility information, test description, instrumentation, references for the experimental data and some examples of application of the data for validation. The current database platform includes scenarios for PWR, BWR, VVER, and specific benchmarks for CFD modelling data and is to be expanded to include references for molten salt reactors. There are place holders for high temperature gas cooled reactors, CANDU and liquid metal reactors. This relational database is called The International Experimental Thermal Hydraulic Systems (TIETHYS) database and currently resides at Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the OECD and is freely open to public access. Going forward the database will be extended to include additional links and data as they become available. https://www.oecd-nea.org/tiethysweb/« less

Strategies for genotype imputation in composite beef cattle.

PubMed

Chud, Tatiane C S; Ventura, Ricardo V; Schenkel, Flavio S; Carvalheiro, Roberto; Buzanskas, Marcos E; Rosa, Jaqueline O; Mudadu, Maurício de Alvarenga; da Silva, Marcos Vinicius G B; Mokry, Fabiana B; Marcondes, Cintia R; Regitano, Luciana C A; Munari, Danísio P

2015-08-07

Genotype imputation has been used to increase genomic information, allow more animals in genome-wide analyses, and reduce genotyping costs. In Brazilian beef cattle production, many animals are resulting from crossbreeding and such an event may alter linkage disequilibrium patterns. Thus, the challenge is to obtain accurately imputed genotypes in crossbred animals. The objective of this study was to evaluate the best fitting and most accurate imputation strategy on the MA genetic group (the progeny of a Charolais sire mated with crossbred Canchim X Zebu cows) and Canchim cattle. The data set contained 400 animals (born between 1999 and 2005) genotyped with the Illumina BovineHD panel. Imputation accuracy of genotypes from the Illumina-Bovine3K (3K), Illumina-BovineLD (6K), GeneSeek-Genomic-Profiler (GGP) BeefLD (GGP9K), GGP-IndicusLD (GGP20Ki), Illumina-BovineSNP50 (50K), GGP-IndicusHD (GGP75Ki), and GGP-BeefHD (GGP80K) to Illumina-BovineHD (HD) SNP panels were investigated. Seven scenarios for reference and target populations were tested; the animals were grouped according with birth year (S1), genetic groups (S2 and S3), genetic groups and birth year (S4 and S5), gender (S6), and gender and birth year (S7). Analyses were performed using FImpute and BEAGLE software and computation run-time was recorded. Genotype imputation accuracy was measured by concordance rate (CR) and allelic R square (R(2)). The highest imputation accuracy scenario consisted of a reference population with males and females and a target population with young females. Among the SNP panels in the tested scenarios, from the 50K, GGP75Ki and GGP80K were the most adequate to impute to HD in Canchim cattle. FImpute reduced computation run-time to impute genotypes from 20 to 100 times when compared to BEAGLE. The genotyping panels possessing at least 50 thousands markers are suitable for genotype imputation to HD with acceptable accuracy. The FImpute algorithm demonstrated a higher efficiency of imputed markers, especially in lower density panels. These considerations may assist to increase genotypic information, reduce genotyping costs, and aid in genomic selection evaluations in crossbred animals.

Peak Oil, Peak Coal and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. W.

2009-05-01

Research on future climate change is driven by the family of scenarios developed for the IPCC assessment reports. These scenarios create projections of future energy demand using different story lines consisting of government policies, population projections, and economic models. None of these scenarios consider resources to be limiting. In many of these scenarios oil production is still increasing to 2100. Resource limitation (in a geological sense) is a real possibility that needs more serious consideration. The concept of 'Peak Oil' has been discussed since M. King Hubbert proposed in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. His prediction was accurate. This concept is about production rate not reserves. For many oil producing countries (and all OPEC countries) reserves are closely guarded state secrets and appear to be overstated. Claims that the reserves are 'proven' cannot be independently verified. Hubbert's Linearization Model can be used to predict when half the ultimate oil will be produced and what the ultimate total cumulative production (Qt) will be. US oil production can be used as an example. This conceptual model shows that 90% of the ultimate US oil production (Qt = 225 billion barrels) will have occurred by 2011. This approach can then be used to suggest that total global production will be about 2200 billion barrels and that the half way point will be reached by about 2010. This amount is about 5 to 7 times less than assumed by the IPCC scenarios. The decline of Non-OPEC oil production appears to have started in 2004. Of the OPEC countries, only Saudi Arabia may have spare capacity, but even that is uncertain, because of lack of data transparency. The concept of 'Peak Coal' is more controversial, but even the US National Academy Report in 2007 concluded only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves in the US are actually minable reserves and that US reserves should be reassessed using modern methods. British coal production can be used as a case study for testing the applicability the Linearization Model approach. This model has been applied to the various world regions by D. Rutledge (Cal Tech). The regions are summed to estimate global production. The conclusion is that the world's coal resources may be much less (maybe by 10 times) than assumed by the IPCC scenarios. Several research groups, including K. Aleklett (Uppsala), the Energy Watch Group and the Institute of Energy (IFE) and have independently reached the same conclusion. Simulations by D. Rutledge of atmospheric CO2 levels, using these values of ultimate oil and coal production as an input, suggest that atmospheric CO2 could reach maximum concentrations as low as 450 ppm. While some of these conclusions are controversial, available data clearly suggest that resource limitation should be given serious consideration in future climate change scenarios. There are also serious implications for economic recovery and energy security as well.

Scenario-Based Case Study Method and the Functionality of the Section Called "From Production to Consumption" from the Perspective of Primary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taneri, Ahu

2018-01-01

In this research, the aim was showing the evaluation of students on scenario-based case study method and showing the functionality of the studied section called "from production to consumption". Qualitative research method and content analysis were used to reveal participants' experiences and reveal meaningful relations regarding…

Combining integrated models and participatory methods to quantify water and agricultural trade-offs linked to different rural development scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivas, David; Willaarts, Barbara; García, Ángel de Miguel; Tarquis, Ana Maria

2017-04-01

This study explores the water and agricultural tradeoffs linked to three different rural development scenarios in the Cega-Eresma-Adaja basin (CEA) in Central Spain. Agriculture is a key socioeconomic activity in CEA, and nearly 44% of the basin is devoted to croplands and pastures. Irrigated agriculture accounts for 12% of the cropland area and is currently using over 84% of available water resources. To define the three scenarios for CEA, we conducted a workshop with local stakeholders to infer how contrasting evolutions of EU agricultural, water and environmental policies could affect the local land use and agricultural management using participatory mapping techniques. The three scenarios reflect 1) a business as usual (BAU) rural development; 2) a land sharing strategy (LSH); and 3) a land sparing (LSP) situation. The integrated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the changes in water use (hm^3/year) and agricultural productivity (ton/year) under each scenario. To account for changes in agricultural land use and management, the model integrates a large set of agricultural patterns obtained from combining high resolution remote sensing images (20m x 20m) for the years 2011-2015, agricultural productivity from survey by municipality and land use information obtained from the national map SIOSE2011 (1:50.000). Model calibration and sensitivity analysis were performed using SWAT-CUP/SUFI2 The period of the years 2005 to 2008 were used for parameter calibration and validation period extending between 2009 and 2014. The predicted daily streamflow presents a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and a NS coefficient of 0.81. The preliminary results reveal that under a BAU and a LSP scenario agricultural production and water demand will increase significantly (>25%) despite the improvements in water use efficiency and agricultural productivity. Under these scenarios, allocated water is likely to exceed the natural renewable water resources compromising the hydrological and natural balance of the basin. Under a LSH scenario, water use will decrease (10%) from the current situation, but it will entail a loss of agricultural productivity that depends of crop rotations. The results of this study exemplify how participatory approaches and stakeholder knowledge can be incorporated into modeling exercises to address complex water-agriculture problems, as well as the high data requirements needed to provide robust results that can support better decision making.

Watershed scale impacts of bioenergy, landscape changes, and ecosystem response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaubey, Indrajeet; Cibin, Raj; Chiang, Li-Chi

2013-04-01

In recent years, high US gasoline prices and national security concerns have prompted a renewed interest in alternative fuel sources to meet increasing energy demands, particularly by the transportation sector. Food and animal feed crops, such as corn and soybean, sugarcane, residue from these crops, and cellulosic perennial crops grown specifically to produce bioenergy (e.g. switchgrass, Miscanthus, mixed grasses), and fast growing trees (e.g. hybrid poplar) are expected to provide the majority of the biofeedstock for energy production. One of the grand challenges in supplying large quantities of grain-based and lignocellulosic materials for the production of biofuels is ensuring that they are produced in environmentally sustainable and economically viable manner. Feedstock selection will vary geographically based on regional adaptability, productivity, and reliability. Changes in land use and management practices related to biofeedstock production may have potential impacts on water quantity and quality, sediments, and pesticides and nutrient losses, and these impacts may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. We have made many improvements in the currently available biophysical models (e.g. Soil and Water Assessment Tool or SWAT model) to evaluate sustainability of energy crop production. We have utilized the improved model to evaluate impacts of both annual (e.g. corn) and perennial bioenergy crops (e.g. Miscanthus and switchgrass at) on hydrology and water quality under the following plausible bioenergy crop production scenarios: (1) at highly erodible areas; (2) at agriculturally marginal areas; (3) at pasture areas; (4) crop residue (corn stover) removal; and (5) combinations of above scenarios. Overall results indicated improvement in water quality with introduction of perennial energy crops. Stream flow at the watershed outlet was reduced under energy crop production scenarios and ranged between 0.3% and 5% across scenarios. Erosion and sediment loading at watershed outlet were reduced with bioenergy scenarios except for stover removal scenarios with reduction ranging between 2.4% to 30.5%. Based on the simulation results for different bioenergy crop production scenario, we have also developed a multi-level spatial optimization framework (MLSOPT) to optimize production of food and energy crops under various sustainability objective functions. The method works in two levels, first level divides large watershed into small subareas and optimum solutions for individually for these subareas are identified. The second level uses these optimum solutions from the first level to identify watershed scale optimum solutions. The framework is tested with a complex spatial optimization case study designed to maximize crop residue (corn stover) harvest with minimum environmental impacts in a 2000 km2 watershed, located in Indiana, USA. In this presentation, results related to optimize sustainability of bioenergy crops will also be discussed.

Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

2016-04-01

Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as an important element in management and decision-making as problems in today's world are complex and require knowledge from many different domains and disciplines. Participation is also said to be a process of collective learning that changes the way people think and act which is a relevant point in forming appropriate region-specific climate adaptation strategies. The scenarios are based on an analysis of data on recent states and trends in major local sector developments concerning absolute and relative employment and value creation as well as on distinct socio-demographic developments in the region. Categories discussed in the scenario workshop cover inter alia institutions and governance, demographics, production and demand, markets, value-chains and trade, scientific and technological innovations, education and health. The derived stakeholder-based socio-economic scenarios were, in a second step, matched with the Shared Socio-economic reference Pathways (SSPs) in order to frame the locally produced scenarios with global narratives. Both strains were, in a third step, combined and backed-up by scientific literature in order to build the local socio-economic scenarios that served as background information in the analysis of risks, vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures in the case-study region.

Exposure of the general public due to wireless LAN applications in public places.

PubMed

Schmid, G; Preiner, P; Lager, D; Uberbacher, R; Georg, R

2007-01-01

The typical exposure caused by wireless LAN applications in public areas has been investigated in a variety of scenarios. Small-sized (internet café) and large-scale (airport) indoor scenarios as well as outdoor scenarios in the environment of access points (AP) supplying for residential areas and public places were considered. The exposure assessment was carried out by numerical GTD/UTD computations based on optical wave propagation, as well as by verifying frequency selective measurements in the considered scenarios under real life conditions. In the small-sized indoor scenario the maximum temporal peak values of power density, spatially averaged over body dimensions, were found to be lower than 20 mW/m(2), corresponding to 0.2% of the reference level according to the European Council Recommendation 1999/519/EC. Local peak values of power density might be 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, spatial and time-averaged values for usual data traffic conditions might be 2-3 orders of magnitude lower, depending on the actual data traffic. In the considered outdoor scenarios, exposure was several orders of magnitude lower than in indoor scenarios due to the usually larger distances to the AP antennas.

Protocol Architecture Model Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dhas, Chris

2000-01-01

NASA's Glenn Research Center (GRC) defines and develops advanced technology for high priority national needs in communications technologies for application to aeronautics and space. GRC tasked Computer Networks and Software Inc. (CNS) to examine protocols and architectures for an In-Space Internet Node. CNS has developed a methodology for network reference models to support NASA's four mission areas: Earth Science, Space Science, Human Exploration and Development of Space (REDS), Aerospace Technology. This report applies the methodology to three space Internet-based communications scenarios for future missions. CNS has conceptualized, designed, and developed space Internet-based communications protocols and architectures for each of the independent scenarios. The scenarios are: Scenario 1: Unicast communications between a Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) spacecraft inspace Internet node and a ground terminal Internet node via a Tracking and Data Rela Satellite (TDRS) transfer; Scenario 2: Unicast communications between a Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) International Space Station and a ground terminal Internet node via a TDRS transfer; Scenario 3: Multicast Communications (or "Multicasting"), 1 Spacecraft to N Ground Receivers, N Ground Transmitters to 1 Ground Receiver via a Spacecraft.

Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

2018-02-01

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

Spatiotemporal reference evapotranspiration changes in humid and semi-arid regions of Iran: past trends and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nouri, Milad; Homaee, Mehdi; Bannayan, Mohammad

2017-06-01

This study was undertaken to investigate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) changes in semi-arid and humid regions of Iran during the past (1966-2010) and future (2011-2099). For detecting possible trend in ET0 over 1966-2010, the Mann-Kendall trend test was employed. The outputs of Hadley Centre coupled model version 3 (HadCM3) and the third generation couple global climate model (CGCM3) under A2, B2, and A1B emission scenarios were also used to simulate the future ET0 changes by statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The results indicated upward trends in annual ET0 during 1966-2010 in the most sites. Furthermore, the significant increasing ET0 trends were identified for 54.5, 18.2, 27.3, 22.7, and 36.3% of studied locations during winter, spring, summer, autumn, and entire year, respectively. Positive trends in ET0 were mostly found in northeast, west, and northwest Iran, and insignificant downward ET0 trends were primarily detected in southwestern and southern stations in 1966-2010. The ET0 changes were attributed to wind speed changes in semi-arid regions and mean temperature changes in humid areas in the past period. An increase in ET0 was projected under all scenarios due mainly to temperature rise and declined relative humidity in the investigated regions from 2011 to 2100. Averaged over all stations, the lowest and highest ET0 increment were, respectively, modeled for autumn and summer using CGCM3 outputs and winter and autumn using HadCM3 outputs. Given significant ET0 increase over the twenty-first century, appropriate adaptive measures are required to reduce negative impacts of climate change on water resources and agricultural productions.

Consumptive water footprint and virtual water trade scenarios for China - With a focus on crop production, consumption and trade.

PubMed

Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2016-09-01

The study assesses green and blue water footprints (WFs) and virtual water (VW) trade in China under alternative scenarios for 2030 and 2050, with a focus on crop production, consumption and trade. We consider five driving factors of change: climate, harvested crop area, technology, diet, and population. Four scenarios (S1-S4) are constructed by making use of three of IPCC's shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-SSP3) and two of IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and taking 2005 as the baseline year. Results show that, across the four scenarios and for most crops, the green and blue WFs per tonne will decrease compared to the baseline year, due to the projected crop yield increase, which is driven by the higher precipitation and CO2 concentration under the two RCPs and the foreseen uptake of better technology. The WF per capita related to food consumption decreases in all scenarios. Changing to the less-meat diet can generate a reduction in the WF of food consumption of 44% by 2050. In all scenarios, as a result of the projected increase in crop yields and thus overall growth in crop production, China will reverse its role from net VW importer to net VW exporter. However, China will remain a big net VW importer related to soybean, which accounts for 5% of the WF of Chinese food consumption (in S1) by 2050. All scenarios show that China could attain a high degree of food self-sufficiency while simultaneously reducing water consumption in agriculture. However, the premise of realizing the presented scenarios is smart water and cropland management, effective and coherent policies on water, agriculture and infrastructure, and, as in scenario S1, a shift to a diet containing less meat. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using the Co-Production of Knowledge for Developing Realistic Natural Disaster Scenarios for Small-to-Medium Scale Emergency Management Exercises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, T.; Wilson, T. M.; Davies, T. R.; Orchiston, C.; Thompson, J.

2014-12-01

Disaster scenarios for Emergency Management (EM) exercises are a widely-used and effective tool for communicating hazard information to policy makers, EM personnel, lifelines operators and communities in general. It is crucial that the scenarios are as realistic as possible. Major disasters however, contain a series of cascading consequences, both environmental and social, which are difficult to model. Consequently, only recently have large-scale exercises included such processes; incorporating these in small- and medium-scale scenarios has yet to be attempted. This study details work undertaken in a recent medium-scale earthquake exercise in New Zealand to introduce such cascading processes into the disaster scenario. Given limited time, data, and funding, we show that the co-production of knowledge between natural disaster scientists, EM personnel, and governance and lifelines organisations can yield detailed, realistic scenarios. Using the co-production process, scenario development was able to identify where the pre-exercise state of knowledge was insufficient. This enabled a focussed research response driven by end-user needs. This found that in general, seismic hazard (ground shaking) and its likely impacts were well known and understood by all parties. However, subsequent landsliding and associated effects were poorly known and understood and their potential impacts unconsidered. Scenario development therefore focussed primarily on understanding these processes and their potential effects. This resulted in cascading hazards being included in a medium-scale NZ exercise for the first time. Further, all participants were able to focus on the potential impacts on their specific sectors, increasing the level of knowledge of cascading processes across all parties. Using group based discussions throughout the design process allowed a detailed scenario to be created, fostered stronger inter-disciplinary relationships, and identified areas for further research. Consequently, further detailed research has begun specifically into the impacts from secondary effects in an effort to further increase resilience to future events.

Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution Control Measures for Megacities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedrich, R.; Theloke, J.; Denier-van-der-Gon, H.; Kugler, U.; Kampffmeyer, T.; Roos, J.; Torras, S.

2012-04-01

Air pollution in large cities is still a matter of concern. Especially the concentration of fine particles (PM10 and PM2.5) is largest in large cities leading to severe health impacts. Furthermore the PM10 thresholds of the EU Air Quality Directive are frequently exceeded. Thus the question arises, whether the initiated policies and measures for mitigating air pollution are sufficient to meet the air quality targets and - if not - which efficient further pollution mitigation measures exist. These questions have been addressed in the EU research project MEGAPOLI for the four European megacities respectively agglomerations London, Paris, Rhine-Ruhr area and Po valley. Firstly, a reference scenario of future activities and emissions has been compiled for the megacities for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 for all relevant air pollutants (CO, NH3, NMVOC, NOx, PM10, PM2.5 and SO2) and greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O). The reference scenario takes into account as well population changes as technical progress and economic growth. As pollution flowing in from outside the city is about as important as pollution caused by emissions in the city, the analysis covers the whole of Europe and not only the city area. Emissions are then transformed into concentrations using atmospheric models. The higher concentrations in cities were estimated with a newly developed 'urban increment' model. Results show, that in the megacities the limits of the Air Quality Directive (2008/50/EC) will be exceeded. Thus additional efforts are necessary to reduce emissions further. Thus, a number of further measures (not implemented in current legislation) were selected and assessed. These included mitigation options for road transport, other mobile sources, large combustion plants, small and medium combustion plants and industry. For each measure and in addition for various bundles of measures a cost-benefit analysis has been carried out. Benefits (avoided health risks and climate change risks) have been calculated for each measure using the impact pathway or full chain approach. First the changes of emissions - compared with the reference scenario - are estimated, that occur, if the different options are implemented. Then, for each policy scenario the concentrations of pollutants are estimated. Using concentration-response-relationships, impacts, especially risks to human health, are calculated. These impact are then converted into DALYs (disability adjusted life years) and further into monetary values using contingent valuation methods (willingness to pay approach). The most efficient measures are the use of solar energy for heating,insulation of buildings combined with a mechanical ventilation system, wind energy for electricity production, use of more efficient combustion techniques and low and later zero emission zones for vehicles in cities. However, even if all available options are implemented, the air quality requirements for PM10 will not be met under all meteorological conditions.

Grassland futures in Great Britain - Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunities.

PubMed

Qi, Aiming; Holland, Robert A; Taylor, Gail; Richter, Goetz M

2018-09-01

To optimise trade-offs provided by future changes in grassland use intensity, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of respective grassland productivities are required at the systems level. Here, we benchmark the potential national availability of grassland biomass, identify optimal strategies for its management, and investigate the relative importance of intensification over reversion (prioritising productivity versus environmental ecosystem services). Process-conservative meta-models for different grasslands were used to calculate the baseline dry matter yields (DMY; 1961-1990) at 1km 2 resolution for the whole UK. The effects of climate change, rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] and technological progress on baseline DMYs were used to estimate future grassland productivities (up to 2050) for low and medium CO 2 emission scenarios of UKCP09. UK benchmark productivities of 12.5, 8.7 and 2.8t/ha on temporary, permanent and rough-grazing grassland, respectively, accounted for productivity gains by 2010. By 2050, productivities under medium emission scenario are predicted to increase to 15.5 and 9.8t/ha on temporary and permanent grassland, respectively, but not on rough grassland. Based on surveyed grassland distributions for Great Britain in 2010 the annual availability of grassland biomass is likely to rise from 64 to 72milliontonnes by 2050. Assuming optimal N application could close existing productivity gaps of ca. 40% a range of management options could deliver additional 21∗10 6 tonnes of biomass available for bioenergy. Scenarios of changes in grassland use intensity demonstrated considerable scope for maintaining or further increasing grassland production and sparing some grassland for the provision of environmental ecosystem services. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alternative scenarios of bioenergy crop production in an agricultural landscape and implications for bird communities.

PubMed

Blank, Peter J; Williams, Carol L; Sample, David W; Meehan, Timothy D; Turner, Monica G

2016-01-01

Increased demand and government mandates for bioenergy crops in the United States could require a large allocation of agricultural land to bioenergy feedstock production and substantially alter current landscape patterns. Incorporating bioenergy landscape design into land-use decision making could help maximize benefits and minimize trade-offs among alternative land uses. We developed spatially explicit landscape scenarios of increased bioenergy crop production in an 80-km radius agricultural landscape centered on a potential biomass-processing energy facility and evaluated the consequences of each scenario for bird communities. Our scenarios included conversion of existing annual row crops to perennial bioenergy grasslands and conversion of existing grasslands to annual bioenergy row crops. The scenarios explored combinations of four biomass crop types (three potential grassland crops along a gradient of plant diversity and one annual row crop [corn]), three land conversion percentages to bioenergy crops (10%, 20%, or 30% of row crops or grasslands), and three spatial configurations of biomass crop fields (random, clustered near similar field types, or centered on the processing plant), yielding 36 scenarios. For each scenario, we predicted the impact on four bird community metrics: species richness, total bird density, species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) density, and SGCN hotspots (SGCN birds/ha ≥ 2). Bird community metrics consistently increased with conversion of row crops to bioenergy grasslands and consistently decreased with conversion of grasslands to bioenergy row crops. Spatial arrangement of bioenergy fields had strong effects on the bird community and in some cases was more influential than the amount converted to bioenergy crops. Clustering grasslands had a stronger positive influence on the bird community than locating grasslands near the central plant or at random. Expansion of bioenergy grasslands onto marginal agricultural lands will likely benefit grassland bird populations, and bioenergy landscapes could be designed to maximize biodiversity benefits while meeting targets for biomass production.

The challenge of a ban on animal testing for the development of a regulated legal market for new psychoactive substances (NPS) ('legal highs') in New Zealand: Issues and options for resolution.

PubMed

Rychert, Marta; Wilkins, Chris

2015-12-01

In mid-July 2013, New Zealand passed the Psychoactive Substances Act (PSA), which allowed 'low risk' psychoactive products ('legal highs') to be approved for legal sale. In early May 2014, following public protest, the Psychoactive Substances Amendment Act (PSAA) was passed banning animal testing of psychoactive products, potentially making the new regime unworkable. To investigate strategies to overcome the impasse created by the animal testing ban. Solutions to the impasse were investigated using 'scenario' and 'stakeholder' analysis. Legislation, parliamentary debates, and regulatory statements related to the PSA and animal testing were reviewed. Strategies to resolve the impasse were discussed with stakeholders including the Psychoactive Substances Regulatory Authority (PSRA) officials, health officials, a legal high industry lawyer, and a leading legal highs manufacturer. This process generated six possible scenarios and five decision-making criteria of key importance to major stakeholders. Scenarios were then evaluated based on feedback from the industry and regulators. The six scenarios were: (1) pragmatic modification of the animal testing ban; (2) waiting until new non-animal test models are internationally accepted; (3) use of non-validated replacement test methods; (4) judicial challenge of the animal testing ban; (5) 'creative compliance' by only presenting human clinical trial results; and (6) philosophical re-conceptualisation of the 'benefits' from psychoactive products. Options 1 and 5 appear to be the most attractive overall solutions. However, both rely on a new political consensus and astute framing of the issues by political communicators. Political decision makers may be happy to accept Scenario 2 which would impose significant delays. A 'failed' pharmaceutical product with psychoactive effects may have the test data required to be approved under Scenarios 1 and 5. Ultimately, the pleasurable benefits from psychoactive products may need to be included in the debate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Indonesian CPO availability analysis to support food and energy security: a system dynamic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, T.; Arkeman, Y.; Setyaningsih, D.; Saparita, R.

2017-05-01

The development of biofuels could be a solution to overcome the energy problem. One of biofuel that has the potential to be developed, namely palm oil biodiesel that is also the raw material for food. As a provider of CPO raw materials, the production of palm biodiesel could trigger competitions, from biofuels demand growth and utilization of agricultural resources. Thus, it needs to be analyzed to determine the adequency of CPO supply to fulfill the need of food and policy recomendation which sets the development of palm oil biodiesel can be synergies with food need especially for the supply of raw material CPO. To obtain the optimal policy in the synergy between the raw material of CPO for food and energy is a need to establish some policy scenarios that allow to be applied and then chosen the best policy alternative of all scenarios. The purpose of this research were to : 1) analysis the availability of CPO to meet the needs of food and energy, 2) provide policy recommendation with regard biodiesel development of food security. The model made used system dynamic method. Several scenarios that used in the model are: 1) existing condition, 2) The scenario increase biodiesel production capacity and increase land productivity, 3) reduction scenario CPO export by 30%, 4) scenario use othe raw material for biodiesel by 20%. The simulation results showed the availability of CPO raw materials would answer all needs of both food and biodiesel when there was an increase in productivity, diversification of raw materials, and also a reduction in palm oil exports. It was needed an integrated policy from upstream to downstream along with the consistency of implementation. Policy suggestions that could be considered were increased productivity through agricultural intensification, enforcement disincentive policies of CPO to exports, and development of non-CPO biodiesel raw materials and development of renewable energy.

Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

2017-04-01

The Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) is a wine region, in the northern Portugal, recognized for the Porto wine, which is responsible for more than 60% of the total value of national wine exportations. Since the viticulture is highly dependent on weather/climate patterns, the global warming is expected to affect the areas suitable to the growth of a certain variety of grape, its production and quality. This highlights the need of regional studies that assess the future climate changes effects in the vineyard, which might allow an early adjustment. We explore future climate change in the DDR region using a high-resolution regional climate model for Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model - low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Two future periods have been simulated using the emission scenario RCP8.5 - for the mid- (2046-2065) and late 21st century (2081-2100) - and compared to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCP8.5 is a "baseline" scenario without any climate mitigation and corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to other scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our regional WRF implementation uses three online-nested domains with increasing resolution at a downscaling ratio of three. The coarser domain of 81-km resolution covers part of the North Atlantic Ocean and most of the Europe. The innermost 9-km horizontal resolution domain includes the Iberian Peninsula, a portion of Northern Africa and the adjacent part of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Our study uses this 9-km resolution domain and focuses on a confined area, which comprises the DDR. Such dynamical downscaling approach gives an advantage to assess climate effects on the DDR region, where the high horizontal resolution allows including effects of the oceanic coastline, local riverbeds and complex topography. The climatology of the DDR region determines the more suitable wine variety to be produced (Porto and Douro wine), while climate variability affects the annual productivity and quality of the grape harvest. Our study investigates changes in the extreme climate events in the future model runs, through a set of climate change indicators defined by the WRCP's Expert Team in Climate Change Detection and Indices, which uses variables such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation amounts. Furthermore, we explore heat waves and their properties (duration, intensity and recovery factor). The analysis shows an increase of the mean temperature in the DDR higher than 2°C by the mid-21st century and 4.5°C by the end of the century, relatively to the reference period. Moreover, we found a major predisposition towards higher values of minimum and maximum daily temperatures and a decrease in the total precipitation during both future periods. These preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the DDR wine production and increased vulnerability of the wine varieties in this region.

Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

2017-12-01

There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these scenario components, next steps include capability for dynamic interaction between NCA4 products and CRT to permit users to explore and customize relevant information for their decision at spatial scales that matter to them, as well as links to more in-depth CRT content.

Evaluating United States and world consumption of neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and praseodymium in final products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Matthew

This paper develops scenarios of future rare-earth-magnet metal (neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and praseodymium) consumption in the permanent magnets used in wind turbines and hybrid electric vehicles. The scenarios start with naive base-case scenarios for growth in wind-turbine and hybrid-electric-vehicle sales over the period 2011 to 2020, using historical data for each good. These naive scenarios assume that future growth follows time trends in historical data and does not depend on any exogenous variable. Specifically, growth of each technological market follows historical time trends, and the amount of rare earths used per unit of technology remains fixed. The chosen reference year is 2010. Implied consumptions of the rare earth magnet metals are calculated from these scenarios. Assumptions are made for the material composition of permanent magnets, the market share of permanent-magnet wind turbines and vehicles, and magnet weight per unit of technology. Different scenarios estimate how changes in factors like the material composition of magnets, growth of the economy, and the price of a substitute could affect future consumption. Each scenario presents a different method for reducing rare earth consumption and could be interpreted as potential policy choices. In 2010, the consumption (metric tons, rare-earth-oxide equivalent) of each rare-earth-magnet metal was as follows. Total neodymium consumption in the world for both technologies was 995 tons; dysprosium consumption was 133 tons; terbium consumption was 50 tons; praseodymium consumption was zero tons. The base scenario for wind turbines shows there could be strong, exponential growth in the global wind turbine market. New U.S. sales of hybrid vehicles would decline (in line with the current economic recession) while non-U.S. sales increase through 2020. There would be an overall increase in the total amount of magnetic rare earths consumed in the world. Total consumption of each rare earth in the short-term (2015) and mid-term (2020) scenarios could be between: 1,984 to 6,475 tons (2015) and 3,487 to 13,763 tons (2020) of neodymium; 331 to 864 tons (2015) and 587 to 1,834 tons (2020) of dysprosium; 123 to 325 tons (2015) and 219 to 687 tons (2020) of terbium; finally, zero to 871 tons (2015) and zero to 1,493 tons (2020) of praseodymium. Hybrid vehicle sales in non-U.S. countries could account for a large portion of magnetic rare earth consumption. Wind turbine and related rare earth consumption growth will also be driven by non-U.S. countries, especially developing nations like China. Despite wind turbines using bigger magnets, the sheer volume of hybrids sold and non-U.S. consumers could account for most future consumption of permanent magnets and their rare earths.

Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

PubMed

Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

2013-09-01

The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer exposure. A possibility for significant release also exists during recycling operations when the polymers containing CNTs are handled together with other polymers and mainly occupational users would be exposed. It can be concluded that in general, significant release of CNTs from products and articles is unlikely except in manufacturing and subsequent processing, tires, recycling, and potentially in textiles. However except for high energy machining processes, most likely the resulting exposure for these scenarios will be low and to a non-pristine form of CNTs. Actual exposure studies, which quantify the amount of material released should be conducted to provide further evidence for this conclusion. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Biofuel Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, J.; hvid, A.

2012-04-01

Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use module, we explore the effect of these different global and regional diet scenarios on land use and biofuel potential up to the year 2095. The model economically optimizes food production for 14 different regions of the world based on their current and historical land use and land cover, using free market and free trade assumptions.

Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Land Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, J. S.; Hvid, A.

2011-12-01

Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use module, we explore the effect of these different global and regional diet scenarios on land use up to 2050. The model economically optimizes food production for 14 different regions of the world based on their current and historical land use and land cover, using free market and free trade assumptions.

Default values for assessment of potential dermal exposure of the hands to industrial chemicals in the scope of regulatory risk assessments.

PubMed

Marquart, Hans; Warren, Nicholas D; Laitinen, Juha; van Hemmen, Joop J

2006-07-01

Dermal exposure needs to be addressed in regulatory risk assessment of chemicals. The models used so far are based on very limited data. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a large number of new measurements on dermal exposure to industrial chemicals in various work situations, together with information on possible determinants of exposure. These data and information, together with some non-RISKOFDERM data were used to derive default values for potential dermal exposure of the hands for so-called 'TGD exposure scenarios'. TGD exposure scenarios have similar values for some very important determinant(s) of dermal exposure, such as amount of substance used. They form narrower bands within the so-called 'RISKOFDERM scenarios', which cluster exposure situations according to the same purpose of use of the products. The RISKOFDERM scenarios in turn are narrower bands within the so-called Dermal Exposure Operation units (DEO units) that were defined in the RISKOFDERM project to cluster situations with similar exposure processes and exposure routes. Default values for both reasonable worst case situations and typical situations were derived, both for single datasets and, where possible, for combined datasets that fit the same TGD exposure scenario. The following reasonable worst case potential hand exposures were derived from combined datasets: (i) loading and filling of large containers (or mixers) with large amounts (many litres) of liquids: 11,500 mg per scenario (14 mg cm(-2) per scenario with surface of the hands assumed to be 820 cm(2)); (ii) careful mixing of small quantities (tens of grams in <1l): 4.1 mg per scenario (0.005 mg cm(-2) per scenario); (iii) spreading of (viscous) liquids with a comb on a large surface area: 130 mg per scenario (0.16 mg cm(-2) per scenario); (iv) brushing and rolling of (relatively viscous) liquid products on surfaces: 6500 mg per scenario (8 mg cm(-2) per scenario) and (v) spraying large amounts of liquids (paints, cleaning products) on large areas: 12,000 mg per scenario (14 mg cm(-2) per scenario). These default values are considered useful for estimating exposure for similar substances in similar situations with low uncertainty. Several other default values based on single datasets can also be used, but lead to estimates with a higher uncertainty, due to their more limited basis. Sufficient analogy in all described parameters of the scenario, including duration, is needed to enable proper use of the default values. The default values lead to similar estimates as the RISKOFDERM dermal exposure model that was based on the same datasets, but uses very different parameters. Both approaches are preferred over older general models, such as EASE, that are not based on data from actual dermal exposure situations.

Using QMRAcatch - a stochastic hydrological water quality and infection risk model - to identify sustainable management options for long term drinking water resource planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derx, J.; Demeter, K.; Schijven, J. F.; Sommer, R.; Zoufal-Hruza, C. M.; Kromp, H.; Farnleitner, A.; Blaschke, A. P.

2017-12-01

River water resources in urban environments play a critical role in sustaining human health and ecosystem services, as they are used for drinking water production, bathing and irrigation. In this study the hydrological water quality model QMRAcatch was used combined with measured concentrations of human enterovirus and human-associated genetic fecal markers. The study area is located at a river/floodplain area along the Danube which is used for drinking water production by river bank filtration and further disinfection. QMRAcatch was previously developed to support long term planning of water resources in accordance with a public infection protection target (Schijven et al., 2015). Derx et al. 2016 previously used QMRAcatch for evaluating the microbiological quality and required virus-reduction targets at the study area for the current and robust future "crisis" scenarios, i.e. for the complete failure of wastewater treatment plants and infection outbreaks. In contrast, the aim of this study was to elaborate future scenarios based on projected climate and population changes in collaboration with urban water managers. The identified scenarios until 2050 include increased wastewater discharge rates due to the projected urban population growth and more frequent storm and overflow events of urban sewer systems following forecasted changes in climate and hydrology. Based on the simulation results for the developed scenarios sustainable requirements of the drinking water treatment system for virus reductions were re-evaluated to achieve the health risk target. The model outcomes are used to guide practical and scientifically sound management options for long term water resource planning. This paper was supported by FWF (Vienna Doctoral Program on Water Resource Systems W1219-N22) and the GWRS project (Vienna Water) as part of the "(New) Danube-Lower Lobau Network Project" funded by the Government of Austria and Vienna, and the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (LE 07-13). ReferencesDerx, J. et al. (2016) QMRAcatch: Human-Associated Fecal Pollution and Infection Risk Modeling for a River/Floodplain Environment. J Env Qual 45(4), 1205-1214 Schijven, J., et al. (2015) QMRAcatch: Microbial Quality Simulation of Water Resources including Infection Risk Assessment. J Env Qual 44(5), 1491-1502

Environmental implications of jatropha biofuel from a silvi-pastoral production system in central-west Brazil.

PubMed

Bailis, Rob; Kavlak, Goksin

2013-07-16

We present a life cycle assessment of synthetic paraffinic kerosene produced from Jatropha curcas. The feedstock is grown in an intercropping arrangement with pasture grasses so that Jatropha is coproduced with cattle. Additional innovations are introduced including hybrid seeds, detoxification of jatropha seedcake, and cogeneration. Two fuel pathways are examined including a newly developed catalytic decarboxylation process. Sensitivities are examined including higher planting density at the expense of cattle production as well as 50% lower yields. Intercropping with pasture and detoxifying seedcake yield coproducts that are expected to relieve pressure on Brazil's forests and indirectly reduce environmental impacts of biofuel production. Other innovations also reduce impacts. Results of the baseline assessment indicate that innovations would reduce impacts relative to the fossil fuel reference scenario in most categories including 62-75% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, 64-82% reduction in release of ozone depleting chemicals, 33-52% reduction in smog-forming pollutants, 6-25% reduction in acidification, and 60-72% reduction in use of nonrenewable energy. System expansion, which explicitly accounts for avoided deforestation, results in larger improvements. Results are robust across allocation methodologies, improve with higher planting density, and persist if yield is reduced by half.

Cryogenics and its application with reference to spice grinding: a review.

PubMed

Balasubramanian, S; Gupta, Manoj Kumar; Singh, K K

2012-01-01

Cryogenics is the study of very low temperature and its application on different materials including biological products. Cryogenics has numerous applications in space science, electronics, automobiles, the manufacturing industry, sports and musical instruments, biological science and agriculture, etc. Cryogenic freezing finds pivotal application in food, that is, spices and condiments. Although there is a wide range of cryogens to produce the desired low temperature, generally liquid nitrogen (LN₂) is used in food grinding. The application of low temperature shows a promising pathway to produce higher quality end product with higher flavor and volatile oil retention. Cryogenic grinders generally consist of precoolers and grinder with the cryogen distribution system. In such grinding systems, cryogens subject the raw material up to or lower than glass transition temperature before it is ground, thus eliminating much of the material and quality hassles of traditional grinding. At present, the capital investment including cryogen and handling costs escalate the final cost of the product. Thus, for large-scale production, a proper design to optimize and make it feasible is the need of the hour and understanding the behavior of different food materials at these low temperature conditions. This article reviews the scenario and application of cryogenics in different sectors, especially to spice grinding.

Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

electric sector analysis in the United States. NREL analysts consistently apply the products of this work Scenarios Annual Report and A U.S. Electric Sector Outlook - This annual report presents an outlook of the U.S. electricity sector based on a suite of standard scenarios with their associated assumptions

Outlook to 2060 for world forests and forest industries: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA assessment

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu; Ronald Raunikar; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2012-01-01

Four RPA scenarios corresponding with scenarios from the Third and Fourth Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were simulated with the Global Forest Products Model to project forest area, volume, products demand and supply, international trade, prices, and value added up to 2060 for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, South America,...

TCL2 Ocean Scenario Replay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohlenbrink, Christoph P.; Omar, Faisal Gamal; Homola, Jeffrey R.

2017-01-01

This is a video replay of system data that was generated from the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) Technical Capability Level (TCL) 2 flight demonstration in Nevada and rendered in Google Earth. What is depicted in the replay is a particular set of flights conducted as part of what was referred to as the Ocean scenario. The test range and surrounding area are presented followed by an overview of operational volumes. System messaging is also displayed as well as a replay of all of the five test flights as they occurred.

Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

Treesearch

Ronald Raunikar; Joseph Buongiorno; James A. Turner; Shushuai Zhu

2010-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was modified to link the forest sector to two scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and to represent the utilization of fuelwood and industrial roundwood to produce biofuels. The scenarios examined were a subset of the “story lines” prepared by the IPCC. Each scenario has projections of population and...

Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A.

2014-01-01

The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base-case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of policies that deliver no net benefits to the atmosphere, (ii) a mix of strategies implemented across the country achieves the greatest mitigation impact, and (iii) because of the time delays in achieving carbon benefits for many forest-based mitigation activities, future contributions of the forest sector to climate mitigation can be maximized if implemented soon.

Innovative type of Reproduction of Agriculture of the Komi Republic - the Basis of its Sustainable Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomareva, Anna

2013-04-01

The necessity of transition of agriculture to sustainability is complicated by the necessity to increase production of local environmentally safe food, unemployment indigenous growth of living standards of the peasant community, stable and balanced nature management. Due to the difficult economic conditions of natural and agricultural development for the Komi Republic principle of food self-sufficiency is unacceptable, but the production of basic food products, for which favorable there are conditions, is objective necessity in the short term. Priority directions of development of the agricultural and fisheries sectors: the production of socially significant food products - potatoes, vegetables of the local range, milk, fresh meat, eggs, dietary, preservation and development of traditional industries, and collecting wild mushrooms and berries and its processing. Off forecast in the northern agricultural areas three scenarios selected: a base (slow), optimistic and pessimistic. For all versions of the forecast to be considered systemic crisis of the agricultural sector of the North is ongoing. Functioning of on sector under a particular scenario will depend on the factors and conditions that affect the stability of the agricultural enterprises and farms. At the base, especially under unfavorable conditions, negative external factors and conditions will prevail. The baseline scenario of recent years assumes the maintenance of the rate of change indicators of agriculture, of the levels of state industry conditions of interbranch exchange in agriculture, of access to economic entities in the financial markets, of the pricing and taxation policies, of relatively low investment opportunities to upgrade production capacity. In this embodiment the growth of agricultural production and its reduction will occur in suburban (peripheral areas). The optimistic scenario will be characterized by protectionist policies of the state, increase investment to improve soil fertility, renewal of the production capacity, attracting qualified personnel a field, the development of industrial infrastructure, a significant improvement of social and living conditions in rural areas. This version is based on the innovative development of the agricultural sector. Unfavorable effects of negative factors and conditions stimulate many problems in the agricultural sector of the North. If you save the disparity in prices for agricultural products and inputs, suppling the village, I and III monopoly agribusiness, reducing level of state industry, access to financial markets will be difficult for farmers, there will be a decrease in income of agricultural producers, the degradation of productive capacity, the outflow of cadres from the village, the reduction of potatoes, vegetables, dairy products and beef. In rural areas, to further deterioration of the demographic situation and as a consequence this populated area will decrease. The most acceptable scenario of post-crisis development of agriculture of the North is an optimistic scenario, providing innovative type of reproduction. To implement it, you, first of all, need to overcome the negative effects of a sharp transition to a market sector with the monetarist approaches to form multi-purpose agricultural policy aimed at modernizing agricultural production and improving the welfare of farmers. There is opportunities for the implementation of the optimistic scenario in the Komi Republic.

Energy and environmental evaluation of combined cooling heating and power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bugaj, Andrzej

2017-11-01

The paper addresses issues involving problems of implementing combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) system to industrial facility with well-defined demand profiles of cooling, heating and electricity. The application of CCHP system in this particular industrial facility is being evaluated by comparison with the reference system that consists of three conventional methods of energy supply: (a) electricity from external grid, (b) heat from gas-fired boilers and (c) cooling from vapour compression chillers run by electricity from the grid. The CCHP system scenario is based on the combined heat and power (CHP) plant with gas turbine-compressor arrangement and water/lithium bromide absorption chiller of a single-effect type. Those two scenarios are analysed in terms of annual primary energy usage as well as emissions of CO2. The results of the analysis show an extent of primary energy savings of the CCHP system in comparison with the reference system. Furthermore, the environmental impact of the CCHP usage, in the form of greenhouse gases emission reductions, compares quite favourably with the reference conventional option.

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

PubMed

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global changes on the six functional groups, in terms of their epidemiology and of the crop losses they cause. Scenario analysis enables qualitative analysis of complex systems, such as plant pathosystems that are evolving in response to global changes, including climate change and technology shifts. It also provides a useful framework for quantitative simulation modeling analysis for plant disease epidemiology.

Simulation of groundwater flow and pumping scenarios for 1900–2050 near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fine, Jason M.; Petkewich, Matthew D.; Campbell, Bruce G.

2017-10-31

Groundwater withdrawals from the Upper Cretaceous-age Middendorf aquifer in South Carolina have created a large, regional cone of depression in the potentiometric surface of the Middendorf aquifer in Charleston and Berkeley Counties, South Carolina. Groundwater-level declines of as much as 249 feet have been observed in wells over the past 125 years and are a result of groundwater use for public water supply, irrigation, and private industry. To address the concerns of users of the Middendorf aquifer, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Mount Pleasant Waterworks (MPW), recalibrated an existing groundwater-flow model to incorporate additional groundwater-use and water-level data since 2008. This recalibration process consisted of a technique of parameter estimation that uses regularized inversion and employs “pilot points” for spatial hydraulic property characterization. The groundwater-flow system of the Coastal Plain physiographic province of South Carolina and parts of Georgia and North Carolina was simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference computer code MODFLOW-2000.After the model recalibration, the following six predictive water-management scenarios were created to simulate potential changes in groundwater flow and groundwater-level conditions in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area: Scenario 1—maximize MPW reverse-osmosis plant capacity by increasing groundwater withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), which was the amount withdrawn in 2015, to 8.58 Mgal/d; Scenario 2—same as Scenario 1, but with the addition of a 0.5 Mgal/d supply well in the Middendorf aquifer near Moncks Corner, South Carolina; Scenario 3—same as Scenario 1, but with the addition of a 1.5 Mgal/d supply well in the Middendorf aquifer near Moncks Corner, South Carolina; Scenario 4—maximize MPW well capacity by increasing withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 Mgal/d (in 2015) to 10.16 Mgal/d; Scenario 5—minimize MPW surface-water purchase from the Charleston Water System by adding supply wells and increasing withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 Mgal/d (in 2015) to 12.16 Mgal/d; and Scenario 6—same as Scenario 1, but with he addition of quarterly model stress periods to simulate seasonal variations in the groundwater withdrawals. Results from the simulations indicated further decline of groundwater levels creating cones of depressions near pumping wells in the Middendorf aquifer in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area between 2015 and 2050 for all six scenarios.Simulation results from Scenario 1 showed an average decline of about 150 feet in the groundwater levels of the MPW production wells. Simulated hydrographs for two area observation wells illustrate the gradual decline in groundwater levels with overall changes in water-level altitudes of –92 and –33 feet, respectively. Simulated groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field declined 121 feet between 2015 and 2050.Scenarios 2 and 3 have the same pumping rates as Scenario 1 for the MPW production wells; however, a single hypothetical pumping well was added in the Middendorf aquifer near the town of Moncks Corner, South Carolina. This hypothetical pumping well has a withdrawal rate of 0.5 Mgal/d for Scenario 2 and 1.5 Mgal/d for Scenario 3. A comparison to the 2050 Scenario 1 simulation indicates groundwater altitudes for Scenarios 2 and Scenario 3 are 3 feet and 8 feet lower, respectively, at the MPW production wells.Scenario 4 simulates the maximum pumping capacity of 10.16 Mgal/d for the MPW network of production wells. Simulated 2050 groundwater altitudes for this simulation declined to –359 feet. Simulated hydrographs for two observation wells show groundwater-level declines of 116 and 41 feet, respectively. Simulated differences in groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field indicate a water-level decline of 164 feet between 2015 and 2050.Scenario 5 is a modification of Scenario 4 with the addition of two new MPW production wells. For this scenario, the MPW network of production wells were simulated the same as in Scenario 4, but withdrawals from the two new production wells were added in 2020. Simulated 2050 groundwater altitudes for this simulation declined to – 405 feet. Simulated hydrographs for two observation wells show groundwater-level declines of 143 and 51 feet, respectively. Simulated groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field declined 199 feet between 2015 and 2050.Scenario 6 is a modification of Scenario 1, in which 140 additional quarterly stress periods were added to simulate MPW seasonal demands. Simulated groundwater altitudes for Scenario 6 declined to –353 feet during 2050. For Scenario 6, simulated hydrographs for two observation wells and the hypothetical observation well show similar groundwater-level declines as seen in Scenario 1, but with seasonal fluctuations of as much as 56 feet in the hypothetical observation well.Water budgets for the model area immediately surrounding Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, were calculated for 2015 and for 2050. The water budget for 2015 is equal for all of the scenarios because it represents the year prior to the hypothetical pumping beginning in 2016. The largest flow component in the 2015 water budget for the Mount Pleasant area is discharge to wells at a rate of 4.17 Mgal/d. Additionally, 0.23 Mgal/d flows laterally out of the Middendorf aquifer in this area of the model due to the regional horizontal hydraulic gradient. Flow into this zone consists predominantly of lateral flow within the Middendorf aquifer at 4.08 Mgal/d. Additionally, 0.02 Mgal/d is released into this zone from aquifer storage. Vertically, 0.06 Mgal/d flows down from the Middendorf confining unit located above the Middendorf aquifer, and 0.25 Mgal/d flows up from the Cape Fear confining unit below.The largest flow component in the 2050 water budget for all six scenarios is discharge to wells in the Mount Pleasant area at rates between 8.89 and 12.47 Mgal/d. Flow into this zone consists mostly of lateral flow between 8.47 and 11.77 Mgal/d within the Middendorf aquifer. Between 0.003 and 0.46 Mgal/d is released into this zone from aquifer storage. Between 0.004 and 0.15 Mgal/d flows laterally out of this zone into adjacent areas of the Middendorf aquifer due to the regional horizontal hydraulic gradient. Finally, between 0.15 and 0.22 Mgal/d flows vertically into this zone from confining units above and below the Middendorf aquifer.

[Scientific production in online journals on the practice of psychological harassment: an integrative review].

PubMed

Cahú, Graziela Pontes Ribeiro; Rosenstock, Karelline Izaltemberg Vasconcelos; da Costa, Solange Fátima Geraldo; Leite, Alice Iana Tavares; Costa, Isabelle Cristinne Pinto; Gomes e Claudino, Hellen

2011-09-01

The discussion about the practice of psychological harassment has gained notoriety due to the intensification and the severity of the phenomenon in various scenarios, such as educational institutions, public agencies and private companies. This study aims to characterize the scientific production about the scenarios of psychological harassment in online journals in the areas of Health Sciences, Social Sciences and Humanities from 2002 to 2010. This is an integrative literature review. Its sample consists of 24 publications. The survey revealed that most of the publications were made from 2005 to 2010. Highlighted areas of knowledge were Health Sciences and Humanities. We identified three scenarios of psychological harrassment: education institutions, public agencies and private companies. We conclude that psychological harrassment affects workers employed in various work scenarios, and that the discussion about this phenomenon stands in the interdisciplinary field.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, W.; Heath, Garvin; Sandor, Debra

2013-04-01

The petroleum-based transportation fuel system is complex and highly developed, in contrast to the nascent low-petroleum, low-carbon alternative fuel system. This report examines how expansion of the low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure could contribute to deep reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the U.S. transportation sector. Three low-carbon scenarios, each using a different combination of low-carbon fuels, were developed to explore infrastructure expansion trends consistent with a study goal of reducing transportation sector GHG emissions to 80% less than 2005 levels by 2050.These scenarios were compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and were evaluated with respect tomore » four criteria: fuel cost estimates, resource availability, fuel production capacity expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion.« less

Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hanqing; Tian, Zhan; Zhong, Honglin; Fan, Dongli; Shi, Runhe; Niu, Yilong; He, Xiaogang; Chen, Maosi

2017-09-01

Peanut is one of the major edible vegetable oil crops in China, whose growth and yield are very sensitive to climate change. In addition, agriculture climate resources are expected to be redistributed under climate change, which will further influence the growth, development, cropping patterns, distribution and production of peanut. In this study, we used the DSSAT-Peanut model to examine the climate change impacts on peanut production, oil industry and oil food security in China. This model is first calibrated using site observations including 31 years' (1981-2011) climate, soil and agronomy data. This calibrated model is then employed to simulate the future peanut yield based on 20 climate scenarios from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) developed by the InterSectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) driven by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results indicate that the irrigated peanut yield will decrease 2.6% under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 9.9% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 29% under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, the rain-fed peanut yield will also decrease, with a 2.5% reduction under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 11.5% reduction under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 30% reduction under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively.

Use of a Weather Generator for analysis of projections of future daily temperature and its validation with climate change indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Piazza, A.; Cordano, E.; Eccel, E.

2012-04-01

The issue of climate change detection is considered a major challenge. In particular, high temporal resolution climate change scenarios are required in the evaluation of the effects of climate change on agricultural management (crop suitability, yields, risk assessment, etc.) energy production and water management. In this work, a "Weather Generator" technique was used for downscaling climate change scenarios for temperature. An R package (RMAWGEN, Cordano and Eccel, 2011 - available on http://cran.r-project.org) was developed aiming to generate synthetic daily weather conditions by using the theory of vectorial auto-regressive models (VAR). The VAR model was chosen for its ability in maintaining the temporal and spatial correlations among variables. In particular, observed time series of daily maximum and minimum temperature are transformed into "new" normally-distributed variable time series which are used to calibrate the parameters of a VAR model by using ordinary least square methods. Therefore the implemented algorithm, applied to monthly mean climatic values downscaled by Global Climate Model predictions, can generate several stochastic daily scenarios where the statistical consistency among series is saved. Further details are present in RMAWGEN documentation. An application is presented here by using a dataset with daily temperature time series recorded in 41 different sites of Trentino region for the period 1958-2010. Temperature time series were pre-processed to fill missing values (by a site-specific calibrated Inverse Distance Weighting algorithm, corrected with elevation) and to remove inhomogeneities. Several climatic indices were taken into account, useful for several impact assessment applications, and their time trends within the time series were analyzed. The indices go from the more classical ones, as annual mean temperatures, seasonal mean temperatures and their anomalies (from the reference period 1961-1990) to the climate change indices selected from the list recommended by the World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology (WMO-CCL) and the Research Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) project's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). Each index was applied to both observed (and processed) data and to synthetic time series produced by the Weather Generator, over the thirty year reference period 1981-2010, in order to validate the procedure. Climate projections were statistically downscaled for a selection of sites for the two 30-year periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2099 of the European project "Ensembles" multi-model output (scenario A1B). The use of several climatic indices strengthens the trend analysis of both the generated synthetic series and future climate projections.

Streamflow Impacts of Biofuel Policy-Driven Landscape Change

PubMed Central

Khanal, Sami; Anex, Robert P.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Herzmann, Daryl E.

2014-01-01

Likely changes in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) resulting from policy-driven expansion of bioenergy crops in the United States are shown to create significant changes in streamflow volumes and increase water stress in the High Plains. Regional climate simulations for current and biofuel cropping system scenarios are evaluated using the same atmospheric forcing data over the period 1979–2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. PET is projected to increase under the biofuel crop production scenario. The magnitude of the mean annual increase in PET is larger than the inter-annual variability of change in PET, indicating that PET increase is a forced response to the biofuel cropping system land use. Across the conterminous U.S., the change in mean streamflow volume under the biofuel scenario is estimated to range from negative 56% to positive 20% relative to a business-as-usual baseline scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, annual streamflow volume is reduced by an average of 20%, and this reduction in streamflow volume is due primarily to increased PET. Predicted increase in mean annual P under the biofuel crop production scenario is lower than its inter-annual variability, indicating that additional simulations would be necessary to determine conclusively whether predicted change in P is a response to biofuel crop production. Although estimated changes in streamflow volume include the influence of P change, sensitivity results show that PET change is the significantly dominant factor causing streamflow change. Higher PET and lower streamflow due to biofuel feedstock production are likely to increase water stress in the High Plains. When pursuing sustainable biofuels policy, decision-makers should consider the impacts of feedstock production on water scarcity. PMID:25289698

Action versus Result-Oriented Schemes in a Grassland Agroecosystem: A Dynamic Modelling Approach

PubMed Central

Sabatier, Rodolphe; Doyen, Luc; Tichit, Muriel

2012-01-01

Effects of agri-environment schemes (AES) on biodiversity remain controversial. While most AES are action-oriented, result-oriented and habitat-oriented schemes have recently been proposed as a solution to improve AES efficiency. The objective of this study was to compare action-oriented, habitat-oriented and result-oriented schemes in terms of ecological and productive performance as well as in terms of management flexibility. We developed a dynamic modelling approach based on the viable control framework to carry out a long term assessment of the three schemes in a grassland agroecosystem. The model explicitly links grazed grassland dynamics to bird population dynamics. It is applied to lapwing conservation in wet grasslands in France. We ran the model to assess the three AES scenarios. The model revealed the grazing strategies respecting ecological and productive constraints specific to each scheme. Grazing strategies were assessed by both their ecological and productive performance. The viable control approach made it possible to obtain the whole set of viable grazing strategies and therefore to quantify the management flexibility of the grassland agroecosystem. Our results showed that habitat and result-oriented scenarios led to much higher ecological performance than the action-oriented one. Differences in both ecological and productive performance between the habitat and result-oriented scenarios were limited. Flexibility of the grassland agroecosystem in the result-oriented scenario was much higher than in that of habitat-oriented scenario. Our model confirms the higher flexibility as well as the better ecological and productive performance of result-oriented schemes. A larger use of result-oriented schemes in conservation may also allow farmers to adapt their management to local conditions and to climatic variations. PMID:22496746

Current and Future Urban Stormwater Flooding Scenarios in the Southeast Florida Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huq, E.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

This study computed rainfall-fed stormwater flooding under the historical and future reference scenarios for the Southeast Coasts Basin of Florida. A large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model was developed using the U.S. E.P.A. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). The model parameterized important processes of urban hydrology, groundwater, and sea level, while including hydroclimatological variables and land use features. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. It was then used to estimate the sensitivity of stormwater runoff to the reference changes in hydroclimatological variables (rainfall and evapotranspiration) and different land use/land cover features (imperviousness, roughness). Furthermore, historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets were also estimated for the Florida Southeast Coasts Basin by incorporating climatic projections from different GCMs and RCMs, as well as by using relevant projections of sea level and land use/cover. Comparative synthesis of the historical and future scenarios along with the results of sensitivity analysis can aid in efficient management of stormwater flooding for the southeast Florida coasts and similar urban centers under a changing regime of climate, sea level, land use/cover and hydrology.

Methodology for Generating Conflict Scenarios by Time Shifting Recorded Traffic Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paglione, Mike; Oaks, Robert; Bilimoria, Karl D.

2003-01-01

A methodology is presented for generating conflict scenarios that can be used as test cases to estimate the operational performance of a conflict probe. Recorded air traffic data is time shifted to create traffic scenarios featuring conflicts with characteristic properties similar to those encountered in typical air traffic operations. First, a reference set of conflicts is obtained from trajectories that are computed using birth points and nominal flight plans extracted from recorded traffic data. Distributions are obtained for several primary properties (e.g., encounter angle) that are most likely to affect the performance of a conflict probe. A genetic algorithm is then utilized to determine the values of time shifts for the recorded track data so that the primary properties of conflicts generated by the time shifted data match those of the reference set. This methodology is successfully demonstrated using recorded traffic data for the Memphis Air Route Traffic Control Center; a key result is that the required time shifts are less than 5 min for 99% of the tracks. It is also observed that close matching of the primary properties used in this study additionally provides a good match for some other secondary properties.

3D reconstruction optimization using imagery captured by unmanned aerial vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassie, Abby L.; Meacham, Sean; Young, David; Turnage, Gray; Moorhead, Robert J.

2017-05-01

Because unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) are emerging as an indispensable image acquisition platform in precision agriculture, it is vitally important that researchers understand how to optimize UAV camera payloads for analysis of surveyed areas. In this study, imagery captured by a Nikon RGB camera attached to a Precision Hawk Lancaster was used to survey an agricultural field from six different altitudes ranging from 45.72 m (150 ft.) to 121.92 m (400 ft.). After collecting imagery, two different software packages (MeshLab and AgiSoft) were used to measure predetermined reference objects within six three-dimensional (3-D) point clouds (one per altitude scenario). In-silico measurements were then compared to actual reference object measurements, as recorded with a tape measure. Deviations of in-silico measurements from actual measurements were recorded as Δx, Δy, and Δz. The average measurement deviation in each coordinate direction was then calculated for each of the six flight scenarios. Results from MeshLab vs. AgiSoft offered insight into the effectiveness of GPS-defined point cloud scaling in comparison to user-defined point cloud scaling. In three of the six flight scenarios flown, MeshLab's 3D imaging software (user-defined scale) was able to measure object dimensions from 50.8 to 76.2 cm (20-30 inches) with greater than 93% accuracy. The largest average deviation in any flight scenario from actual measurements was 14.77 cm (5.82 in.). Analysis of the point clouds in AgiSoft (GPS-defined scale) yielded even smaller Δx, Δy, and Δz than the MeshLab measurements in over 75% of the flight scenarios. The precisions of these results are satisfactory in a wide variety of precision agriculture applications focused on differentiating and identifying objects using remote imagery.

Modeling the Water - Quality Effects of Changes to the Klamath River Upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Annett B.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The Link River to Keno Dam (Link-Keno) reach of the Klamath River, Oregon, generally has periods of water-quality impairment during summer, including low dissolved oxygen, elevated concentrations of ammonia and algae, and high pH. Efforts are underway to improve water quality in this reach through a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program and other management and operational actions. To assist in planning, a hydrodynamic and water-quality model was used in this study to provide insight about how various actions could affect water quality in the reach. These model scenarios used a previously developed and calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 model of the Link-Keno reach developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Watercourse Engineering Inc., and the Bureau of Reclamation for calendar years 2006-09 (referred to as the "USGS model" in this report). Another model of the same river reach was previously developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. and the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality for years 2000 and 2002 and was used in the TMDL process; that model is referred to as the "TMDL model" in this report. This report includes scenarios that (1) assess the effect of TMDL allocations on water quality, (2) provide insight on certain aspects of the TMDL model, (3) assess various methods to improve water quality in this reach, and (4) examine possible water-quality effects of a future warmer climate. Results presented in this report for the first 5 scenarios supersede or augment those that were previously published (scenarios 1 and 2 in Sullivan and others [2011], 3 through 5 in Sullivan and others [2012]); those previous results are still valid, but the results for those scenarios in this report are more current.

Environment, Health and Climate: Impact of African aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liousse, C.; Doumbia, T.; Assamoi, E.; Galy-Lacaux, C.; Baeza, A.; Penner, J. E.; Val, S.; Cachier, H.; Xu, L.; Criqui, P.

2012-12-01

Fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of particles in Africa are expected to significantly increase in the near future, particularly due to rapid growth of African cities. In addition to biomass burning emissions prevailing in these areas, air quality degradation is then expected with important consequences on population health and climatic/radiative impact. In our group, we are constructing a new integrated methodology to study the relations between emissions, air quality and their impacts. This approach includes: (1) African combustion emission characterizations; (2) joint experimental determination of aerosol chemistry from ultrafine to coarse fractions and health issues (toxicology and epidemiology). (3) integrated environmental, health and radiative modeling. In this work, we show some results illustrating our first estimates of African anthropogenic emission impacts: - a new African anthropogenic emission inventory adapted to regional specificities on traffic, biofuel and industrial emissions has been constructed for the years 2005 and 2030. Biomass burning inventories were also improved in the frame of AMMA (African Monsoon) program. - carbonaceous aerosol radiative impact in Africa has been modeled with TM5 model and Penner et al. (2011) radiative code for these inventories for 2005 and 2030 and for two scenarios of emissions : a reference scenario, with no further emission controls beyond those achieved in 2003 and a ccc* scenario including planned policies in Kyoto protocol and regulations as applied to African emission specificities. In this study we will show that enhanced heating is expected with the ccc* scenarios emissions in which the OC fraction is relatively lower than in the reference scenario. - results of short term POLCA intensive campaigns in Bamako and Dakar in terms of aerosol chemical characterization linked to specific emissions sources and their inflammatory impacts on the respiratory tract through in vitro studies. In this study, organic carbon particles have appeared quite biologically active. Quite importantly, air quality improvement obtained through regulations in the ccc* scenario are accompanied by stronger heating impact.

Evaluation of Hybrid Power Plants using Biomass, Photovoltaics and Steam Electrolysis for Hydrogen and Power Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrakopoulou, F.; Sanz, J.

2014-12-01

Steam electrolysis is a promising process of large-scale centralized hydrogen production, while it is also considered an excellent option for the efficient use of renewable solar and geothermal energy resources. This work studies the operation of an intermediate temperature steam electrolyzer (ITSE) and its incorporation into hybrid power plants that include biomass combustion and photovoltaic panels (PV). The plants generate both electricity and hydrogen. The reference -biomass- power plant and four variations of a hybrid biomass-PV incorporating the reference biomass plant and the ITSE are simulated and evaluated using exergetic analysis. The variations of the hybrid power plants are associated with (1) the air recirculation from the electrolyzer to the biomass power plant, (2) the elimination of the sweep gas of the electrolyzer, (3) the replacement of two electric heaters with gas/gas heat exchangers, and (4) the replacement two heat exchangers of the reference electrolyzer unit with one heat exchanger that uses steam from the biomass power plant. In all cases, 60% of the electricity required in the electrolyzer is covered by the biomass plant and 40% by the photovoltaic panels. When comparing the hybrid plants with the reference biomass power plant that has identical operation and structure as that incorporated in the hybrid plants, we observe an efficiency decrease that varies depending on the scenario. The efficiency decrease stems mainly from the low effectiveness of the photovoltaic panels (14.4%). When comparing the hybrid scenarios, we see that the elimination of the sweep gas decreases the power consumption due to the elimination of the compressor used to cover the pressure losses of the filter, the heat exchangers and the electrolyzer. Nevertheless, if the sweep gas is used to preheat the air entering the boiler of the biomass power plant, the efficiency of the plant increases. When replacing the electric heaters with gas-gas heat exchangers, the efficiency of the plant increases, although the higher pressure losses of the flue-gas path increase the requirements of the air compressor. Finally, replacing the two heat exchangers of the electrolyzer unit with one that uses extracted steam from the biomass power plant can lead to an overall decrease in the operating and investment costs of the plant.

TOXICOLOGICAL EVALUATION OF REALISTIC EMISSIONS OF SOURCE AEROSOLS (TERESA): APPLICATION TO POWER PLANT-DERIVED PM2.5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annette Rohr

2005-09-30

This report documents progress made on the subject project during the period of March 1, 2005 through August 31, 2005. The TERESA Study is designed to investigate the role played by specific emissions sources and components in the induction of adverse health effects by examining the relative toxicity of coal combustion and mobile source (gasoline and/or diesel engine) emissions and their oxidative products. The study involves on-site sampling, dilution, and aging of coal combustion emissions at three coal-fired power plants, as well as mobile source emissions, followed by animal exposures incorporating a number of toxicological endpoints. The DOE-EPRI Cooperative Agreementmore » (henceforth referred to as ''the Agreement'') for which this technical progress report has been prepared covers the performance and analysis of field experiments at the first TERESA plant, located in the Upper Midwest and henceforth referred to as Plant 0, and at two additional coal-fired power plants (Plants 1 and 2) utilizing different coal types and with different plant configurations. During this reporting period, fieldwork was completed at Plant 1, located in the Southeast. Stage I toxicological assessments were carried out in normal Sprague-Dawley rats, and Stage II assessments were carried out in a compromised model (myocardial infarction-MI-model). Normal rats were exposed to the following atmospheric scenarios: (1) primary particles; (2) oxidized emissions; (3) oxidized emissions + secondary organic aerosol (SOA)--this scenario was repeated; and (4) oxidized emissions + ammonia + SOA. Compromised animals were exposed to oxidized emissions + SOA (this scenario was also conducted in replicate). Stage I assessment endpoints included breathing pattern/pulmonary function; in vivo chemiluminescence (an indicator of oxidative stress); blood cytology; bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid analysis; and histopathology. Stage II assessments included continuous ECG monitoring via implanted telemeters and blood chemistry (complete blood count, circulating cytokines (interleukins-1 and -6), C-reactive protein (CRP), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-{alpha}), and endothelin-1). Only a subset of exposure data was available at the time of preparation of this report. Continuous PM{sub 2.5} mass (TEOM) results indicate a mass concentration of 14 {micro}g/m{sup 3} for the primary particle scenario, and a range of 151 to 385 {micro}g/m{sup 3} for the oxidized emissions scenarios. Toxicological results obtained to date from Plant 1 indicate subtle biological responses to some of the exposure scenarios. We observed statistically significant changes in several breathing pattern parameters, including tidal volume and frequency. For one scenario (oxidized emissions + SOA), we observed a significant increase in Enhanced Pause (Penh), a parameter that may reflect airflow restriction. However, the respiratory changes are very subtle and do not present a clear picture of a particular respiratory effect (e.g., airway restriction, sensory irritation, or pulmonary irritation). A significant increase in lung chemiluminescence (a marker of oxidative stress in lung tissue) in exposed animals (vs. air-exposed controls) was observed in animals exposed to oxidized emissions + SOA. No changes were observed in heart tissue, nor in any other scenario. Stage II assessments were conducted to the secondary + SOA scenario; ECG and blood analysis data are pending. Planning was initiated for Plant 2, located in the Midwest. Because of the requirement for both the FGD and the SCR to be concurrently operational for appropriate reaction conditions, fieldwork at Plant 2 is scheduled for Summer 2006. During the next reporting period, we will complete all remaining exposure and toxicological analyses for Plant 1, and the next semiannual report will include a detailed description of these data and their interpretation. We are also in the process of preparing a topical report for Plant 0.« less

Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and the Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Sue Wing, I.; Stern, A.

2014-12-01

As contributors to the US EPA's Climate Impacts and Risk Assessment (CIRA) project, we present empirically-based projections of climate change impacts on the yields of five major US crops. Our analysis uses a 15-member ensemble of climate simulations using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) linked to the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), forced by 3 emissions scenarios (a "business as usual" reference scenario and two stabilization scenarios at 4.5W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 by 2100), quantify the agricultural impacts avoided due to greenhouse gas emission reductions. Our innovation is the coupling of climate model outputs with empirical estimates of the long-run relationship between crop yields and temperature, precipitation and soil moisture derived from the co-variation between yields and weather across US counties over the last 50 years. Our identifying assumption is that since farmers' planting, management and harvesting decisions are based on land quality and expectations of weather, yields and meteorological variables share a long-run equilibrium relationship. In any given year, weather shocks cause yields to diverge from their expected long-run values, prompting farmers to revise their long-run expectations. We specify a dynamic panel error correction model (ECM) that statistically distinguishes these two processes. The ECM is estimated for maize, wheat, soybeans, sorghum and cotton using longitudinal data on production and harvested area for ~1,100 counties from 1948-2010, in conjunction with spatial fields of 3-hourly temperature, precipitation and soil moisture from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) forcing and output files, binned into annual counts of exposure over the growing season and mapped to county centroids. For scenarios of future warming the identical method was used to calculate counties' current (1986-2010) and future (2036-65 and 2086-2110) distributions of simulated 3-hourly growing season temperature, precipitation and soil moisture. Finally, we combine these variables with the fitted long-run response to obtain county-level yields under current average climate and projected future climate under our three warming scenarios. We close our presentation with a discussion of the implications for mitigation and adaptation decisions.

A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

2014-12-01

Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the irrigated area. The most sensitive area is along the Boise Foothill which is the transitioning zone from water deficit to water abundant. However, these trends vary significantly between scenarios in space and time. The outcome of the study will serve as a reference for local stakeholders to make decisions on future land use.

Discrimination of plant root zone water status in greenhouse production based on phenotyping and machine learning techniques.

PubMed

Guo, Doudou; Juan, Jiaxiang; Chang, Liying; Zhang, Jingjin; Huang, Danfeng

2017-08-15

Plant-based sensing on water stress can provide sensitive and direct reference for precision irrigation system in greenhouse. However, plant information acquisition, interpretation, and systematical application remain insufficient. This study developed a discrimination method for plant root zone water status in greenhouse by integrating phenotyping and machine learning techniques. Pakchoi plants were used and treated by three root zone moisture levels, 40%, 60%, and 80% relative water content. Three classification models, Random Forest (RF), Neural Network (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were developed and validated in different scenarios with overall accuracy over 90% for all. SVM model had the highest value, but it required the longest training time. All models had accuracy over 85% in all scenarios, and more stable performance was observed in RF model. Simplified SVM model developed by the top five most contributing traits had the largest accuracy reduction as 29.5%, while simplified RF and NN model still maintained approximately 80%. For real case application, factors such as operation cost, precision requirement, and system reaction time should be synthetically considered in model selection. Our work shows it is promising to discriminate plant root zone water status by implementing phenotyping and machine learning techniques for precision irrigation management.

Occupational exposures during abdominal fluoroscopically guided interventional procedures for different patient sizes - A Monte Carlo approach.

PubMed

Santos, William S; Belinato, Walmir; Perini, Ana P; Caldas, Linda V E; Galeano, Diego C; Santos, Carla J; Neves, Lucio P

2018-01-01

In this study we evaluated the occupational exposures during an abdominal fluoroscopically guided interventional radiology procedure. We investigated the relation between the Body Mass Index (BMI), of the patient, and the conversion coefficient values (CC) for a set of dosimetric quantities, used to assess the exposure risks of medical radiation workers. The study was performed using a set of male and female virtual anthropomorphic phantoms, of different body weights and sizes. In addition to these phantoms, a female and a male phantom, named FASH3 and MASH3 (reference virtual anthropomorphic phantoms), were also used to represent the medical radiation workers. The CC values, obtained as a function of the dose area product, were calculated for 87 exposure scenarios. In each exposure scenario, three phantoms, implemented in the MCNPX 2.7.0 code, were simultaneously used. These phantoms were utilized to represent a patient and medical radiation workers. The results showed that increasing the BMI of the patient, adjusted for each patient protocol, the CC values for medical radiation workers decrease. It is important to note that these results were obtained with fixed exposure parameters. Copyright © 2017 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consumer exposure to biocides--identification of relevant sources and evaluation of possible health effects.

PubMed

Hahn, Stefan; Schneider, Klaus; Gartiser, Stefan; Heger, Wolfgang; Mangelsdorf, Inge

2010-02-03

Products containing biocides are used for a variety of purposes in the home environment. To assess potential health risks, data on products containing biocides were gathered by means of a market survey, exposures were estimated using a worst case scenario approach (screening), the hazard of the active components were evaluated, and a preliminary risk assessment was conducted. Information on biocide-containing products was collected by on-site research, by an internet inquiry as well as research into databases and lists of active substances. Twenty active substances were selected for detailed investigation. The products containing these substances were subsequently classified by range of application; typical concentrations were derived. Potential exposures were then estimated using a worst case scenario approach according to the European Commission's Technical Guidance Document on Risk Assessment. Relevant combinations of scenarios and active substances were identified. The toxicological data for these substances were compiled in substance dossiers. For estimating risks, the margins of exposure (MOEs) were determined. Numerous consumer products were found to contain biocides. However, it appeared that only a limited number of biocidal active substances or groups of biocidal active substances were being used. The lowest MOEs for dermal exposure or exposure by inhalation were obtained for the following scenarios and biocides: indoor pest control using sprays, stickers or evaporators (chlorpyrifos, dichlorvos) and spraying of disinfectants as well as cleaning of surfaces with concentrates (hydrogen peroxide, formaldehyde, glutardialdehyde). The risk from aggregate exposure to individual biocides via different exposure scenarios was higher than the highest single exposure on average by a factor of three. From the 20 biocides assessed 10 had skin-sensitizing properties. The biocides isothiazolinone (mixture of 5-chloro-2-methyl-2H-isothiazolin-3-one and 2-methyl-2H-isothiazolin-3-one, CMI/MI), glutardialdehyde, formaldehyde and chloroacetamide may be present in household products in concentrations which have induced sensitization in experimental studies. Exposure to biocides from household products may contribute to induction of sensitization in the population. The use of biocides in consumer products should be carefully evaluated. Detailed risk assessments will become available within the framework of the EU Biocides Directive.

Consumer exposure to biocides - identification of relevant sources and evaluation of possible health effects

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Products containing biocides are used for a variety of purposes in the home environment. To assess potential health risks, data on products containing biocides were gathered by means of a market survey, exposures were estimated using a worst case scenario approach (screening), the hazard of the active components were evaluated, and a preliminary risk assessment was conducted. Methods Information on biocide-containing products was collected by on-site research, by an internet inquiry as well as research into databases and lists of active substances. Twenty active substances were selected for detailed investigation. The products containing these substances were subsequently classified by range of application; typical concentrations were derived. Potential exposures were then estimated using a worst case scenario approach according to the European Commission's Technical Guidance Document on Risk Assessment. Relevant combinations of scenarios and active substances were identified. The toxicological data for these substances were compiled in substance dossiers. For estimating risks, the margins of exposure (MOEs) were determined. Results Numerous consumer products were found to contain biocides. However, it appeared that only a limited number of biocidal active substances or groups of biocidal active substances were being used. The lowest MOEs for dermal exposure or exposure by inhalation were obtained for the following scenarios and biocides: indoor pest control using sprays, stickers or evaporators (chlorpyrifos, dichlorvos) and spraying of disinfectants as well as cleaning of surfaces with concentrates (hydrogen peroxide, formaldehyde, glutardialdehyde). The risk from aggregate exposure to individual biocides via different exposure scenarios was higher than the highest single exposure on average by a factor of three. From the 20 biocides assessed 10 had skin-sensitizing properties. The biocides isothiazolinone (mixture of 5-chloro-2-methyl-2H-isothiazolin-3-one and 2-methyl-2H-isothiazolin-3-one, CMI/MI), glutardialdehyde, formaldehyde and chloroacetamide may be present in household products in concentrations which have induced sensitization in experimental studies. Conclusions Exposure to biocides from household products may contribute to induction of sensitization in the population. The use of biocides in consumer products should be carefully evaluated. Detailed risk assessments will become available within the framework of the EU Biocides Directive. PMID:20128903

Pricing in a two-echelon supply chain with different market powers: game theory approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaeilzadeh, Afshin; Taleizadeh, Ata Allah

2016-03-01

In this research, the optimal pricing decisions for two complementary products in a two-echelon supply chain under two scenarios are studied. The proposed supply chain in each echelon includes one retailer and two manufacturers and the same complementary products are produced. In the first scenario, we assume the unit manufacturing costs of the complementary products in each echelon are the same, while in the second one the different unit manufacturing costs are supposed and lead to demand leakage from the echelon with the higher unit manufacturing cost to the echelon with the lower unit manufacturing cost. Moreover, under the second scenario, the products with lower price are replaced with the higher price products. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of different market powers between the manufacturers and the retailer and the demand leakage on the optimal wholesale and retail prices and also on the profit of the chain. The relationships between the manufacturers and the retailer are modeled by the MS-Stackelberg and MS-Bertrand game-theoretic approach where the manufacturers are leaders and the retailers are followers.

Simulation and Particle-Tracking Analysis of Selected Ground-Water Pumping Scenarios at Vogtle Electric Generation Plant, Burke County, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherry, Gregory S.; Clarke, John S.

2007-01-01

The source of ground water to production wells at Vogtle Electric Generation Plant (VEGP), a nuclear power plant in Burke County, Georgia, was simulated under existing (2002) and potential future pumping conditions using an existing U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) MODFLOW ground-water flow model of a 4,455-square-mile area in the Coastal Plain of Georgia and South Carolina. Simulation results for three steady-state pumping scenarios were compared to each other and to a 2002 Base Case condition. The pumping scenarios focused on pumping increases at VEGP resulting from projected future demands and the addition of two electrical-generating reactor units. Scenarios simulated pumping increases at VEGP ranging from 1.09 to 3.42 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), with one of the scenarios simulating the elimination of 5.3 Mgal/d of pumping at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a U.S. Department of Energy facility located across the Savannah River from VEGP. The largest simulated water-level changes at VEGP were for the scenario whereby pumping at the facility was more than tripled, resulting in drawdown exceeding 4-8 feet (ft) in the aquifers screened in the production wells. For the scenario that eliminated pumping at SRS, water-level rises of as much as 4-8 ft were simulated in the same aquifers at SRS. Results of MODFLOW simulations were analyzed using the USGS particle-tracking code MODPATH to determine the source of water and associated time of travel to VEGP production wells. For each of the scenarios, most of the recharge to VEGP wells originated in an upland area near the county line between Burke and Jefferson Counties, Georgia, with none of the recharge originating on SRS or elsewhere in South Carolina. An exception occurs for the scenario whereby pumping at VEGP was more than tripled. For this scenario, some of the recharge originates in an upland area in eastern Barnwell County, South Carolina. Simulated mean time of travel from recharge areas to VEGP wells for the Base Case and the three other pumping scenarios was between about 2,700 and 3,800 years, with some variation related to changes in head gradients because of pumping changes.

The patterns of genomic variances and covariances across genome for milk production traits between Chinese and Nordic Holstein populations.

PubMed

Li, Xiujin; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Janss, Luc; Wang, Chonglong; Ding, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qin; Su, Guosheng

2017-03-15

With the development of SNP chips, SNP information provides an efficient approach to further disentangle different patterns of genomic variances and covariances across the genome for traits of interest. Due to the interaction between genotype and environment as well as possible differences in genetic background, it is reasonable to treat the performances of a biological trait in different populations as different but genetic correlated traits. In the present study, we performed an investigation on the patterns of region-specific genomic variances, covariances and correlations between Chinese and Nordic Holstein populations for three milk production traits. Variances and covariances between Chinese and Nordic Holstein populations were estimated for genomic regions at three different levels of genome region (all SNP as one region, each chromosome as one region and every 100 SNP as one region) using a novel multi-trait random regression model which uses latent variables to model heterogeneous variance and covariance. In the scenario of the whole genome as one region, the genomic variances, covariances and correlations obtained from the new multi-trait Bayesian method were comparable to those obtained from a multi-trait GBLUP for all the three milk production traits. In the scenario of each chromosome as one region, BTA 14 and BTA 5 accounted for very large genomic variance, covariance and correlation for milk yield and fat yield, whereas no specific chromosome showed very large genomic variance, covariance and correlation for protein yield. In the scenario of every 100 SNP as one region, most regions explained <0.50% of genomic variance and covariance for milk yield and fat yield, and explained <0.30% for protein yield, while some regions could present large variance and covariance. Although overall correlations between two populations for the three traits were positive and high, a few regions still showed weakly positive or highly negative genomic correlations for milk yield and fat yield. The new multi-trait Bayesian method using latent variables to model heterogeneous variance and covariance could work well for estimating the genomic variances and covariances for all genome regions simultaneously. Those estimated genomic parameters could be useful to improve the genomic prediction accuracy for Chinese and Nordic Holstein populations using a joint reference data in the future.

Base-Case 1% Yield Increase (BC1), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the base-case scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 1% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

4% Yield Increase (HH4), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 4% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change.

PubMed

Rötter, Reimund P; Höhn, Jukka; Trnka, Mirek; Fronzek, Stefan; Carter, Timothy R; Kahiluoto, Helena

2013-10-01

(i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely - so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.

Projection of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions in China for the period 2010-2020

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Wei; Wang, Shuxiao; Hao, Jiming; Cheng, Shuiyuan

2011-12-01

The future (2010-2020) anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions in China were projected in this study using 2005 as the reference year. The projections are based on the assumptions of a lower population growth rate (less than 1%), continuous economic development with high GDP growth, and increased urbanization. The results show that the national VOCs emissions would continuously increase from 19.4 Tg in 2005 to 25.9 Tg in 2020, even if China's legislative standards for VOCs emissions are implemented effectively in the future (assumed as control scenario I). The contributions of various emission sources were found to differ greatly in the period of 2010-2020. Solvent utilization would become the largest contributor rising from 22% to 37%, along with an increase for industrial processes from 17% to 24%. However, road vehicle emissions would rapidly decrease from 25% to 11% due to the strict VOCs emission limit standards in China, along with the decrease for stationary fuel combustion from 23% to 16% caused by the reduction of domestic biofuel consumption. Additionally, there would be a notable divergence among provincial emissions. The developed eastern and coastal regions would emit more VOCs than the relatively underdeveloped western and inland regions. Moreover, this divergence grows in the future. When we assumed stricter control measures for solvent utilization and industrial processes (control scenario II) for that period, the projections revealed national VOCs emissions per year would remain at about 20 Tg, if exhaust after-treatment systems are installed in newly-built factories (after 2005) for the most important industrial sources, and the market shares of "low/zero-VOCs" products in paints, adhesives and printing ink raise to the present levels of developed countries. The emission abatements of the two types of measures were estimated to be similar. While scenario II indicates that the sectoral and provincial differences of VOCs emissions would still exist, they would be smaller than in scenario I.

Optimization of gas condensate Field A development on the basis of "reservoir - gathering facilities system" integrated model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demidova, E. A.; Maksyutina, O. V.

2015-02-01

It is known that many gas condensate fields are challenged with liquid loading and condensate banking problems. Therefore, gas production is declining with time. In this paper hydraulic fracturing treatment was considered as a method to improve the productivity of wells and consequently to exclude the factors that lead to production decline. This paper presents the analysis of gas condensate Field A development optimization with the purpose of maintaining constant gas production at the 2013 level for 8 years taking into account mentioned factors . To optimize the development of the filed, an integrated model was created. The integrated model of the field implies constructing the uniform model of the field consisting of the coupling models of the reservoir, wells and surface facilities. This model allowed optimizing each of the elements of the model separately and also taking into account the mutual influence of these elements. Using the integrated model, five development scenarios were analyzed and an optimal scenario was chosen. The NPV of this scenario equals 7,277 mln RUR, cumulative gas production - 12,160.6 mln m3, cumulative condensate production - 1.8 mln tons.

Predicting the impacts of bioenergy production on farmland birds.

PubMed

Rivas Casado, Monica; Mead, Andrew; Burgess, Paul J; Howard, David C; Butler, Simon J

2014-04-01

Meeting European renewable energy production targets is expected to cause significant changes in land use patterns. With an EU target of obtaining 20% of energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020, national and local policy makers need guidance on the impact of potential delivery strategies on ecosystem goods and services to ensure the targets are met in a sustainable manner. Within agroecosystems, models are available to explore consequences of such policy decisions for food, fuel and fibre production but few can describe the effect on biodiversity. This paper describes the integration and application of a farmland bird population model within a geographical information system (GIS) to explore the consequences of land use changes arising from different strategies to meet renewable energy production targets. Within a 16,000 ha arable dominated case study area in England, the population growth rates of 19 farmland bird species were predicted under baseline land cover, a scenario maximising wheat production for bioethanol, and a scenario focused on mix of bioenergy sources. Both scenarios delivered renewable energy production targets for the region (>12 kWh per person per day) but, despite differences in resultant landscape composition, the response of the farmland bird community as a whole to each scenario was small and broadly similar. However, this similarity in overall response masked significant intra- and inter-specific variations across the study area and between scenarios suggesting contrasting mechanisms of impact and highlighting the need for context dependent, species-level assessment of land use change impacts. This framework provides one of the first systematic attempts to spatially model the effect of policy driven land use change on the population dynamics of a suite of farmland birds. The GIS framework also facilitates its integration with other ecosystem service models to explore wider synergies and trade offs arising from national or local policy interventions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

PubMed Central

Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel’s Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species’ available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to ‘errors’ (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario. PMID:29621330

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Troupin, David; Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

San Pedro River Basin Data Browser Report

EPA Science Inventory

Acquisition of primary spatial data and database development are initial features of any type of landscape assessment project. They provide contemporary land cover and the ancillary datasets necessary to establish reference condition and develop alternative future scenarios that ...

New mechanisms of disease and parasite-host interactions.

PubMed

de Souza, Tiago Alves Jorge; de Carli, Gabriel Jose; Pereira, Tiago Campos

2016-09-01

An unconventional interaction between a patient and parasites was recently reported, in which parasitic cells invaded host's tissues, establishing several tumors. This finding raises various intriguing hypotheses on unpredicted forms of interplay between a patient and infecting parasites. Here we present four unusual hypothetical host-parasite scenarios with intriguing medical consequences. Relatively simple experimental designs are described in order to evaluate such hypotheses. The first one refers to the possibility of metabolic disorders in parasites intoxicating the host. The second one is on possibility of patients with inborn errors of metabolism (IEM) being more resistant to parasites (due to accumulation of toxic compounds in the bloodstream). The third one refers to a mirrored scenario: development of tumors in parasites due to ingestion of host's circulating cancer cells. The last one describes a complex relationship between parasites accumulating a metabolite and supplying it to a patient with an IEM. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rationale, Scenarios, and Profiles for the Application of the Internet Protocol Suite (IPS) in Space Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benbenek, Daniel B.; Walsh, William

2010-01-01

This greenbook captures some of the current, planned and possible future uses of the Internet Protocol (IP) as part of Space Operations. It attempts to describe how the Internet Protocol is used in specific scenarios. Of primary focus is low-earth-orbit space operations, which is referred to here as the design reference mission (DRM). This is because most of the program experience drawn upon derives from this type of mission. Application profiles are provided. This includes parameter settings programs have proposed for sending IP datagrams over CCSDS links, the minimal subsets and features of the IP protocol suite and applications expected for interoperability between projects, and the configuration, operations and maintenance of these IP functions. Of special interest is capturing the lessons learned from the Constellation Program in this area, since that program included a fairly ambitious use of the Internet Protocol.

Modeling Impacts of Alternative Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Rice–Wheat Annual Rotation in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Jinyang; Zhang, Xiaolin; Liu, Yinglie; Pan, Xiaojian; Liu, Pingli; Chen, Zhaozhi; Huang, Taiqing; Xiong, Zhengqin

2012-01-01

Background Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. Materials and Methods Measured data of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model to a winter wheat – single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year) impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). Principal Results The simulated cumulative CH4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1) high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH4 emissions, (2) high inorganic N fertilizer increased N2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N2O emissions, (3) the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha−1 yr−1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4) the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. Conclusions In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified cropping system. PMID:23029173

Voice Over Internet Protocol (VoIP) in a Control Center Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pirani, Joseph; Calvelage, Steven

2010-01-01

The technology of transmitting voice over data networks has been available for over 10 years. Mass market VoIP services for consumers to make and receive standard telephone calls over broadband Internet networks have grown in the last 5 years. While operational costs are less with VoIP implementations as opposed to time division multiplexing (TDM) based voice switches, is it still advantageous to convert a mission control center s voice system to this newer technology? Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) has converted its mission voice services to a commercial product that utilizes VoIP technology. Results from this testing, design, and installation have shown unique considerations that must be addressed before user operations. There are many factors to consider for a control center voice design. Technology advantages and disadvantages were investigated as they refer to cost. There were integration concerns which could lead to complex failure scenarios but simpler integration for the mission infrastructure. MSFC HOSC will benefit from this voice conversion with less product replacement cost, less operations cost and a more integrated mission services environment.

Robotic lunar surface operations: Engineering analysis for the design, emplacement, checkout and performance of robotic lunar surface systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodcock, Gordon R.

1990-01-01

The assembly, emplacement, checkout, operation, and maintenance of equipment on planetary surfaces are all part of expanding human presence out into the solar system. A single point design, a reference scenario, is presented for lunar base operations. An initial base, barely more than an output, which starts from nothing but then quickly grows to sustain people and produce rocket propellant. The study blended three efforts: conceptual design of all required surface systems; assessments of contemporary developments in robotics; and quantitative analyses of machine and human tasks, delivery and work schedules, and equipment reliability. What emerged was a new, integrated understanding of hot to make a lunar base happen. The overall goal of the concept developed was to maximize return, while minimizing cost and risk. The base concept uses solar power. Its primary industry is the production of liquid oxygen for propellant, which it extracts from native lunar regolith. Production supports four lander flights per year, and shuts down during the lunar nighttime while maintenance is performed.

[The contradictions between the universal Unified Health System and the transfer of public funds to private health plans and insurances].

PubMed

Bahia, Ligia

2008-01-01

Trailing the whole group of trends and changes in the scenario of relations between the public and the private, this article analyses the effects of the rise in the rates of return of health plan operators and health insurance companies in 2007. Special attention is given to the segmentation of the system, the complaints about the naturalization of inequitable access to health services and to the depreciation of the original concepts of the Unified Health System. The study also gathers information regarding the production of knowledge about supplementary care with the intent to systemize the bases and methodological approaches adopted by a selected sub-group of scientific papers. Finally, the article develops conjectures and hypotheses with regard to possible associations between growth and stability of the health plan and insurance market and as refers to the nature of scientific production about this issue, taking into consideration the contradictions between the political and economical circuit in which the health plan and insurance companies are operating and the universality of the Brazilian Health System.

An assessment of the quality of advice provided by patent medicine vendors to users of oral contraceptive pills in urban Nigeria.

PubMed

Ujuju, Chinazo; Adebayo, Samson B; Anyanti, Jennifer; Oluigbo, Obi; Muhammad, Fatima; Ankomah, Augustine

2014-01-01

In Nigeria about 50% of oral contraceptive pill users obtain their products from proprietary patent medicine vendors (PPMVs). This group of service providers are poorly trained and have very limited knowledge about contraception. This paper investigated the nature of the advice offered to simulated current and potential users of oral contraceptive pills. The main objective was to assess the nature and quality of advice provided by PPMVs to pill users. This study is based on findings from a 'mystery client' approach in which three scenarios related to contraceptive pill use were simulated. Each of the 12 mystery clients simulated one of the following three scenarios: new pill users (new to family planning or switching from condom to pills); user seeking a resupply of pills; and dissatisfied pill users intending to discontinue use. Simple random sampling was used to select 410 PPMVs from a total of 1,826 in four states in Nigeria. Qualitative study using in-depth interviews was also conducted. A majority of the PPMVs had pills in stock on the day of the survey and resupplied pills to the clients. PPMVs also understood the reason and importance of referring clients who were new adopters of oral contraceptive methods to a health facility; 30% of the PPMVs referred new adopters to a health facility. However, demand from clients who do not want to go to health care facilities (for various reasons) necessitated the provision of oral contraceptive pills to 41% of the first time users. Some PPMVs prescribed treatment to mystery clients who presented with perceived complications arising from the use of pills, while 49% were referred to a health facility. The advice given by PPMVs often falls short of safety guidelines related to the use of oral contraceptive pills. There is a need to continuously update knowledge among the PPMVs to ensure that they provide quality oral contraceptive services as PPMVs bridge the gap between medical experts and users in rural communities.

An assessment of the quality of advice provided by patent medicine vendors to users of oral contraceptive pills in urban Nigeria

PubMed Central

Ujuju, Chinazo; Adebayo, Samson B; Anyanti, Jennifer; Oluigbo, Obi; Muhammad, Fatima; Ankomah, Augustine

2014-01-01

Introduction In Nigeria about 50% of oral contraceptive pill users obtain their products from proprietary patent medicine vendors (PPMVs). This group of service providers are poorly trained and have very limited knowledge about contraception. This paper investigated the nature of the advice offered to simulated current and potential users of oral contraceptive pills. The main objective was to assess the nature and quality of advice provided by PPMVs to pill users. Method This study is based on findings from a ‘mystery client’ approach in which three scenarios related to contraceptive pill use were simulated. Each of the 12 mystery clients simulated one of the following three scenarios: new pill users (new to family planning or switching from condom to pills); user seeking a resupply of pills; and dissatisfied pill users intending to discontinue use. Simple random sampling was used to select 410 PPMVs from a total of 1,826 in four states in Nigeria. Qualitative study using in-depth interviews was also conducted. Results A majority of the PPMVs had pills in stock on the day of the survey and resupplied pills to the clients. PPMVs also understood the reason and importance of referring clients who were new adopters of oral contraceptive methods to a health facility; 30% of the PPMVs referred new adopters to a health facility. However, demand from clients who do not want to go to health care facilities (for various reasons) necessitated the provision of oral contraceptive pills to 41% of the first time users. Some PPMVs prescribed treatment to mystery clients who presented with perceived complications arising from the use of pills, while 49% were referred to a health facility. Conclusion The advice given by PPMVs often falls short of safety guidelines related to the use of oral contraceptive pills. There is a need to continuously update knowledge among the PPMVs to ensure that they provide quality oral contraceptive services as PPMVs bridge the gap between medical experts and users in rural communities. PMID:24748802

Charcoal production in the Mopane woodlands of Mozambique: what are the trade-offs with other ecosystem services?

PubMed Central

Baumert, Sophia; Vollmer, Frank; Grundy, Isla; Fisher, Janet; Fernando, Jone; Luz, Ana; Lisboa, Sá N.

2016-01-01

African woodlands form a major part of the tropical grassy biome and support the livelihoods of millions of rural and urban people. Charcoal production in particular is a major economic activity, but its impact on other ecosystem services is little studied. To address this, our study collected biophysical and social datasets, which were combined in ecological production functions, to assess ecosystem service provision and its change under different charcoal production scenarios in Gaza Province, southern Mozambique. We found that villages with longer histories of charcoal production had experienced declines in wood suitable for charcoal, firewood and construction, and tended to have lower perceived availabilities of these services. Scenarios of future charcoal impacts indicated that firewood and woody construction services were likely to trade-off with charcoal production. However, even under the most extreme charcoal scenario, these services were not completely lost. Other provisioning services, such as wild food, medicinal plants and grass, were largely unaffected by charcoal production. To reduce the future impacts of charcoal production, producers must avoid increased intensification of charcoal extraction by avoiding the expansion of species and sizes of trees used for charcoal production. This is a major challenge to land managers and policymakers in the area. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’. PMID:27502380

Productivity improvement using discrete events simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazza, M. H. F. Al; Elbishari, E. M. Y.; Ismail, M. Y. Bin; Adesta, E. Y. T.; Rahman, Nur Salihah Binti Abdul

2018-01-01

The increasing in complexity of the manufacturing systems has increased the cost of investment in many industries. Furthermore, the theoretical feasibility studies are not enough to take the decision in investing for that particular area. Therefore, the development of the new advanced software is protecting the manufacturer from investing money in production lines that may not be sufficient and effective with their requirement in terms of machine utilization and productivity issue. By conducting a simulation, using accurate model will reduce and eliminate the risk associated with their new investment. The aim of this research is to prove and highlight the importance of simulation in decision-making process. Delmia quest software was used as a simulation program to run a simulation for the production line. A simulation was first done for the existing production line and show that the estimated production rate is 261 units/day. The results have been analysed based on utilization percentage and idle time. Two different scenarios have been proposed based on different objectives. The first scenario is by focusing on low utilization machines and their idle time, this was resulted in minimizing the number of machines used by three with the addition of the works who maintain them without having an effect on the production rate. The second scenario is to increase the production rate by upgrading the curing machine which lead to the increase in the daily productivity by 7% from 261 units to 281 units.

Performance of the CELSS Antarctic Analog Project (CAAP) Crop Production System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bubenheim, David L.; Flynn, Michael T.; Bates, Maynard; Schlick, Greg; Kliss, Mark (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Regenerative life support systems potentially offer a level of self-sufficiency and a concomitant decrease in logistics and associated costs in support of space exploration and habitation missions. Current state-of-the-art in plant based, regenerative life support requires resources in excess of resource allocations proposed for candidate mission scenarios. Feasibility thresholds have been identified for candidate exploration missions. The goal of this paper is to review recent advances in performance achieved in the CELSS Antarctic Analog Project (CAAP) in light of likely resource constraints. A prototype CAAP crop production chamber has been constructed and operated at the Ames Research Center. The chamber includes a number of unique hardware and software components focused on attempts to increase production efficiency, increase energy efficiency, and control the flow of energy and mass through the system to achieve enhanced performance efficiency. Both single crop, batch production, and continuous cultivation of mixed crops Product ion scenarios have been completed. The crop productivity as well as engineering performance of the chamber will be described. For each scenario, energy required and partitioned for lighting, cooling, pumps, fans, etc. is quantified. Crop production and the resulting lighting efficiency and energy conversion efficiencies are presented. In the mixed-crop scenario, with up to 25 different crops under cultivation, 17 sq m of crop area provided a mean of 515 g edible biomass per day (83% of the approximately 620 g required for one person). Lighting efficiency (moles on photons kWh-1) approached 4 and the conversion efficiency of light energy to biomass was greatly enhanced compared with conventional growing systems. Engineering and biological performance achieved place plant-based life support systems at the threshold of feasibility.

Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

2009-01-01

Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).] Future scenarios 4 to 9 represent withdrawals and the effects on the water supply while using estimated full build-out water demands. In most townships, existing wells would be used for withdrawals in the simulation. However, in Lower and Middle Townships, the Wildwoods, and the Cape Mays, withdrawals from some wells would be terminated, reduced, or increased. Depending on the scenario, proposed production wells would be installed in locations far from the saltwater fronts, in deep freshwater aquifers, in deeper saltwater aquifers, or proposed injection wells would be installed to inject reused water to create a freshwater barrier to saltwater intrusion. Simulations indicate that future Scenarios 4 to 9 would reduce many of the adverse effects of Scenarios 1, 2, and 3. No future scenario will minimize all adverse impacts. In Scenario 4, Lower Township would drill two production wells in the Cohansey aquifer farther from the Delaware shoreline than existing wells and reduce withdrawals from wells near the shoreline. Wildwood Water Utility (WWU) would reduce withdrawals from existing wells in the Cohansey aquifer and increase withdrawals from wells in the Rio Grande water-bearing zone. Results of the simulation indicate that saltwater intrusion and ecological-water supply problems would be reduced but not as much as in Scenarios 5, 7, 8, and 9. In Scenario 5, the Wildwoods and Lower Township each would install a desalination plant and drill two wells to withdraw saltwater from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. Saltwater intrusion problems would be reduced to the greatest extent with this scenario. Ecological water supplies remain constant or decline from 2003 baseline values. Water-level altitudes would decline to -193 ft in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, the deepest potentiometric level for all scenarios. In Scenario 6, Lower Township would build a tertiary treatment system and drill three wells open to the Cohanse

Integrated versus stand-alone second generation ethanol production from sugarcane bagasse and trash.

PubMed

Dias, Marina O S; Junqueira, Tassia L; Cavalett, Otávio; Cunha, Marcelo P; Jesus, Charles D F; Rossell, Carlos E V; Maciel Filho, Rubens; Bonomi, Antonio

2012-01-01

Ethanol production from lignocellulosic materials is often conceived considering independent, stand-alone production plants; in the Brazilian scenario, where part of the potential feedstock (sugarcane bagasse) for second generation ethanol production is already available at conventional first generation production plants, an integrated first and second generation production process seems to be the most obvious option. In this study stand-alone second generation ethanol production from surplus sugarcane bagasse and trash is compared with conventional first generation ethanol production from sugarcane and with integrated first and second generation; simulations were developed to represent the different technological scenarios, which provided data for economic and environmental analysis. Results show that the integrated first and second generation ethanol production process from sugarcane leads to better economic results when compared with the stand-alone plant, especially when advanced hydrolysis technologies and pentoses fermentation are included. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlations between reaction product yields as a tool for probing heavy-ion reaction scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gawlikowicz, W.; Heavy-Ion Laboratory, Warsaw University, PL-02-093 Warsaw; Agnihotri, D. K.

2010-01-15

Experimental multidimensional joint distributions of neutrons and charged reaction products were analyzed for {sup 136}Xe + {sup 209}Bi reactions at E/A=28, 40, and 62 MeV and were found to exhibit several different types of prominent correlation patterns. Some of these correlations have a simple explanation in terms of the system excitation energy and pose little challenge to most statistical decay theories. However, several other types of correlation patterns are difficult to reconcile with some, but not other, possible reaction scenarios. In this respect, correlations between the average atomic numbers of intermediate-mass fragments, on the one hand, and light particle multiplicities,more » on the other, are notable. This kind of multiparticle correlation provides a useful tool for probing reaction scenarios, which is different from the traditional approach of interpreting inclusive yields of individual reaction products.« less

Techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery: Colombian case.

PubMed

Moncada, Jonathan; El-Halwagi, Mahmoud M; Cardona, Carlos A

2013-05-01

In this paper a techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery is presented for the Colombian case. It is shown two scenarios for different conversion pathways as function of feedstock distribution and technologies for sugar, fuel ethanol, PHB, anthocyanins and electricity production. These scenarios are compared with the Colombian base case which simultaneously produce sugar, fuel ethanol and electricity. A simulation procedure was used in order to evaluate biorefinery schemes for all the scenarios, using Aspen Plus software, that include productivity analysis, energy calculations and economic evaluation for each process configuration. The results showed that the configuration with the best economic, environmental and social performance is the one that considers fuel ethanol and PHB production from combined cane bagasse and molasses. This result served as the basis to draw recommendations on technological and economic feasibility as well as social aspects for the implementation of such type of biorefinery in Colombia. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

2013-12-01

International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and commerce. To demonstrate the usefulness of the framework, we construct several scenarios as case studies to explore the emerging trends of larger ship deployment and the changing portfolio of energy resources including the increased consumption of bio-based energy. The maritime transportation industry remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels to power transport, while energy, mineral and grain remain the largest bulk commodities shipped. Emerging markets for such commodities, as well as new production methods and locations are considered. We overlay these trends and shifts with ecological areas of concern and biological migration routes. The diversity of governance regimes is also considered to produce a clearer picture of the emerging hot-spots for further study and for the synergies and tradeoffs that must be considered to achieve a sustainable ocean system. References Turner BL, Lambin EF, Reenberg A (2007) Proc Natl Acad Sci, (104):20666-20671. UN Trade and Development Board (2013) Recent developments and trends in international maritime transport affecting trade of developing countries, TD/B/C.1/30.

Audiovisual alignment of co-speech gestures to speech supports word learning in 2-year-olds.

PubMed

Jesse, Alexandra; Johnson, Elizabeth K

2016-05-01

Analyses of caregiver-child communication suggest that an adult tends to highlight objects in a child's visual scene by moving them in a manner that is temporally aligned with the adult's speech productions. Here, we used the looking-while-listening paradigm to examine whether 25-month-olds use audiovisual temporal alignment to disambiguate and learn novel word-referent mappings in a difficult word-learning task. Videos of two equally interesting and animated novel objects were simultaneously presented to children, but the movement of only one of the objects was aligned with an accompanying object-labeling audio track. No social cues (e.g., pointing, eye gaze, touch) were available to the children because the speaker was edited out of the videos. Immediately afterward, toddlers were presented with still images of the two objects and asked to look at one or the other. Toddlers looked reliably longer to the labeled object, demonstrating their acquisition of the novel word-referent mapping. A control condition showed that children's performance was not solely due to the single unambiguous labeling that had occurred at experiment onset. We conclude that the temporal link between a speaker's utterances and the motion they imposed on the referent object helps toddlers to deduce a speaker's intended reference in a difficult word-learning scenario. In combination with our previous work, these findings suggest that intersensory redundancy is a source of information used by language users of all ages. That is, intersensory redundancy is not just a word-learning tool used by young infants. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Energy Integration Techniques to the Design of Advanced Life Support Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levri, Julie; Finn, Cory

2000-01-01

Exchanging heat between hot and cold streams within an advanced life support system can save energy. This savings will reduce the equivalent system mass (ESM) of the system. Different system configurations are examined under steady-state conditions for various percentages of food growth and waste treatment. The scenarios investigated represent possible design options for a Mars reference mission. Reference mission definitions are drawn from the ALSS Modeling and Analysis Reference Missions Document, which includes definitions for space station evolution, Mars landers, and a Mars base. For each scenario, streams requiring heating or cooling are identified and characterized by mass flow, supply and target temperatures and heat capacities. The Pinch Technique is applied to identify good matches for energy exchange between the hot and cold streams and to calculate the minimum external heating and cooling requirements for the system. For each pair of hot and cold streams that are matched, there will be a reduction in the amount of external heating and cooling required, and the original heating and cooling equipment will be replaced with a heat exchanger. The net cost savings can be either positive or negative for each stream pairing, and the priority for implementing each pairing can be ranked according to its potential cost savings. Using the Pinch technique, a complete system heat exchange network is developed and heat exchangers are sized to allow for calculation of ESM. The energy-integrated design typically has a lower total ESM than the original design with no energy integration. A comparison of ESM savings in each of the scenarios is made to direct future Pinch Analysis efforts.

Spatially Explicit Life Cycle Analysis of Cellulosic Ethanol Production Scenarios in Southwestern Michigan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cronin, Keith R.; Runge, Troy M.; Zhang, Xuesong

By modeling the life cycle of fuel pathways for cellulosic ethanol (CE) it can help identify logistical barriers and anticipated impacts for the emerging commercial CE industry. Such models contain high amounts of variability, primarily due to the varying nature of agricultural production but also because of limitations in the availability of data at the local scale, resulting in the typical practice of using average values. In this study, 12 spatially explicit, cradle-to-refinery gate CE pathways were developed that vary by feedstock (corn stover, switchgrass, and Miscanthus), nitrogen application rate (higher, lower), pretreatment method (ammonia fiber expansion [AFEX], dilute acid),more » and co-product treatment method (mass allocation, sub-division), in which feedstock production was modeled at the watershed scale over a nine-county area in Southwestern Michigan. When comparing feedstocks, the model showed that corn stover yielded higher global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), and eutrophication potential (EP) than the perennial feedstocks of switchgrass and Miscanthus, on an average per area basis. Full life cycle results per MJ of produced ethanol demonstrated more mixed results, with corn stover-derived CE scenarios that use sub-division as a co-product treatment method yielding similarly favorable outcomes as switchgrass- and Miscanthus-derived CE scenarios. Variability was found to be greater between feedstocks than watersheds. Additionally, scenarios using dilute acid pretreatment had more favorable results than those using AFEX pretreatment.« less

Spatially Explicit Life Cycle Analysis of Cellulosic Ethanol Production Scenarios in Southwestern Michigan

DOE PAGES

Cronin, Keith R.; Runge, Troy M.; Zhang, Xuesong; ...

2016-07-13

By modeling the life cycle of fuel pathways for cellulosic ethanol (CE) it can help identify logistical barriers and anticipated impacts for the emerging commercial CE industry. Such models contain high amounts of variability, primarily due to the varying nature of agricultural production but also because of limitations in the availability of data at the local scale, resulting in the typical practice of using average values. In this study, 12 spatially explicit, cradle-to-refinery gate CE pathways were developed that vary by feedstock (corn stover, switchgrass, and Miscanthus), nitrogen application rate (higher, lower), pretreatment method (ammonia fiber expansion [AFEX], dilute acid),more » and co-product treatment method (mass allocation, sub-division), in which feedstock production was modeled at the watershed scale over a nine-county area in Southwestern Michigan. When comparing feedstocks, the model showed that corn stover yielded higher global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), and eutrophication potential (EP) than the perennial feedstocks of switchgrass and Miscanthus, on an average per area basis. Full life cycle results per MJ of produced ethanol demonstrated more mixed results, with corn stover-derived CE scenarios that use sub-division as a co-product treatment method yielding similarly favorable outcomes as switchgrass- and Miscanthus-derived CE scenarios. Variability was found to be greater between feedstocks than watersheds. Additionally, scenarios using dilute acid pretreatment had more favorable results than those using AFEX pretreatment.« less

Probabilistic Change of Wheat Productivity and Water Use in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yujie; Chen, Qiaomin

2017-04-01

Impacts of climate change on agriculture are a major concern worldwide, but uncertainties of climate models and emission scenarios may hamper efforts to adapt to climate change. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is used to estimate the uncertainties and simulate impacts of global warming on wheat production and water use in the main wheat cultivation regions of China, with a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961-90 values. From output of 20 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations are adapted. These are used to drive the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model to simulate wheat production and water use under baseline and global warming scenarios, with and without consideration of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects. Results show that, because of temperature increase, projected wheat-growing periods for GMT changes of 18, 28, and 38C would shorten, with averaged median values of 3.94%, 6.90%, and 9.67%, respectively. There is a high probability of decreasing (increasing) changes in yield and water-use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios without (with) consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. Elevated CO2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures. The findings could be critical for climate-change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security.

Coupled ecosystem/supply chain modelling of fish products from sea to shelf: the Peruvian anchoveta case.

PubMed

Avadí, Angel; Fréon, Pierre; Tam, Jorge

2014-01-01

Sustainability assessment of food supply chains is relevant for global sustainable development. A framework is proposed for analysing fishfood (fish products for direct human consumption) supply chains with local or international scopes. It combines a material flow model (including an ecosystem dimension) of the supply chains, calculation of sustainability indicators (environmental, socio-economic, nutritional), and finally multi-criteria comparison of alternative supply chains (e.g. fates of landed fish) and future exploitation scenarios. The Peruvian anchoveta fishery is the starting point for various local and global supply chains, especially via reduction of anchoveta into fishmeal and oil, used worldwide as a key input in livestock and fish feeds. The Peruvian anchoveta supply chains are described, and the proposed methodology is used to model them. Three scenarios were explored: status quo of fish exploitation (Scenario 1), increase in anchoveta landings for food (Scenario 2), and radical decrease in total anchoveta landings to allow other fish stocks to prosper (Scenario 3). It was found that Scenario 2 provided the best balance of sustainability improvements among the three scenarios, but further refinement of the assessment is recommended. In the long term, the best opportunities for improving the environmental and socio-economic performance of Peruvian fisheries are related to sustainability-improving management and policy changes affecting the reduction industry. Our approach provides the tools and quantitative results to identify these best improvement opportunities.

Coupled Ecosystem/Supply Chain Modelling of Fish Products from Sea to Shelf: The Peruvian Anchoveta Case

PubMed Central

Avadí, Angel; Fréon, Pierre; Tam, Jorge

2014-01-01

Sustainability assessment of food supply chains is relevant for global sustainable development. A framework is proposed for analysing fishfood (fish products for direct human consumption) supply chains with local or international scopes. It combines a material flow model (including an ecosystem dimension) of the supply chains, calculation of sustainability indicators (environmental, socio-economic, nutritional), and finally multi-criteria comparison of alternative supply chains (e.g. fates of landed fish) and future exploitation scenarios. The Peruvian anchoveta fishery is the starting point for various local and global supply chains, especially via reduction of anchoveta into fishmeal and oil, used worldwide as a key input in livestock and fish feeds. The Peruvian anchoveta supply chains are described, and the proposed methodology is used to model them. Three scenarios were explored: status quo of fish exploitation (Scenario 1), increase in anchoveta landings for food (Scenario 2), and radical decrease in total anchoveta landings to allow other fish stocks to prosper (Scenario 3). It was found that Scenario 2 provided the best balance of sustainability improvements among the three scenarios, but further refinement of the assessment is recommended. In the long term, the best opportunities for improving the environmental and socio-economic performance of Peruvian fisheries are related to sustainability-improving management and policy changes affecting the reduction industry. Our approach provides the tools and quantitative results to identify these best improvement opportunities. PMID:25003196

Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbook (EFH) on how to select data from the EFH to assess childhood exposures. The scenarios presented in this report promote the use of the standard set of age groups recommended by the U.S. EPA in the report entitled Guidance on Selecting Age Groups for Monitoring and Assessing Childhood Exposures to Environmental Contaminants (U.S. EPA 2005). The purpose of the Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples Report is to outline scenarios for various child-specific exposure pathways and to demonstrate how data from the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA, 2011) may be applied for estimating exposures. The handbook provides data on drinking water consumption, soil ingestion, mouthing behavior, inhalation rates, dermal factors including skin area and soil adherence factors, consumption of fruits and vegetables, fish, meats, dairy products, homegrown foods, human milk, activity patterns, body weight, and consumer products. The example scenarios presented here have been selected to best demonstrate the use of the various key data sets in the Child-Specific Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA, 2008a), and represent commonly encountered exposure pathways. An exhausti

[Dynamic change of Pinus tabuliformis forest productivity and its response to future climate change in Shaanxi Province, China.

PubMed

Huo, Xiao Ying; Peng, Shou Zhang; Ren, Jing Yu; Cao, Yang; Chen, Yun Ming

2018-02-01

This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabuliformis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100, using a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period, annual mean temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0.12, 0.23 and 0.54 ℃·10 a -1 under RCP 2.6 , RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the annual precipitation would have no significant change under climate scenarios except RCP 4.5 , under which it would significantly increase by 14.36 mm·10 a -1 . Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical period (1961-1990), it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period, and the enhancement could reach 45.4% at the end of this century (2071-2100) under RCP 8.5 scenario. The NPP under the RCP 8.5 scenario was the highest, followed by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios. During 2015-2100, the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of 41.00 and 21.00 g C·m -2 ·10 a -1 under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively, implying that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.

Coordinate references for the indoor/outdoor seamless positioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, Ling; Zhang, Ling; Long, Yi; Cheng, Fei

2018-05-01

Indoor positioning technologies are being developed rapidly, and seamless positioning which connected indoor and outdoor space is a new trend. The indoor and outdoor positioning are not applying the same coordinate system and different indoor positioning scenes uses different indoor local coordinate reference systems. A specific and unified coordinate reference frame is needed as the space basis and premise in seamless positioning application. Trajectory analysis of indoor and outdoor integration also requires a uniform coordinate reference. However, the coordinate reference frame in seamless positioning which can applied to various complex scenarios is lacking of research for a long time. In this paper, we proposed a universal coordinate reference frame in indoor/outdoor seamless positioning. The research focus on analysis and classify the indoor positioning scenes and put forward the coordinate reference system establishment and coordinate transformation methods in each scene. And, through some experiments, the calibration method feasibility was verified.

Tailoring Green Infrastructure Implementation Scenarios based on Stormwater Management Objectives

EPA Science Inventory

Green infrastructure (GI) refers to stormwater management practices that mimic nature by soaking up, storing, and controlling onsite. GI practices can contribute reckonable benefits towards meeting stormwater management objectives, such as runoff peak shaving, volume reduction, f...

International Multidisciplinary Artificial Gravity (IMAG) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laurini, Kathy

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews the efforts of the International Multidisciplinary Artificial Gravity Project. Specifically it reviews the NASA Exploration Planning Status, NASA Exploration Roadmap, Status of Planning for the Moon, Mars Planning, Reference health maintenance scenario, and The Human Research Program.

Games for All Seasons.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaques, David

1981-01-01

Argues that games with a simple communication structure and/or an abstract content have more virtues than games which introduce too many details into the roles and scenario. Four such "simple" games are described, one in detail, and four references are listed. (LLS)

Optimizing cultivation of agricultural products using socio-economic and environmental scenarios.

PubMed

RaheliNamin, Behnaz; Mortazavi, Samar; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul

2016-11-01

The combination of degrading natural conditions and resources, climate change, growing population, urban development, and competition in a global market complicate optimization of land for agricultural products. The use of pesticides and fertilizers for crop production in the agricultural fields has become excessive in the recent years and Golestan Province of Iran is no exception in this regard. For this, effective management with an efficient and cost-effective practice should be undertaken, maintaining public service at a high level and preserving the environment. Improving the production efficiency of agriculture, efficient use of water resources, decreasing the use of pesticides and fertilizers, improving farmer revenue, and conservation of natural resources are the main objectives of the allocation, ranking, and optimization of agricultural products. The goal of this paper is to use an optimization procedure to lower the negative effects of agriculture while maintaining a high production rate, which is currently a gap in the study area. We collected information about fertilizer and pesticide consumption and other data in croplands of eastern Golestan Province through face-to-face interviews with farmers to optimize cultivation of the agricultural products. The toxicity of pesticides according to LD50 was also included in the optimization model. A decision-support software system called multiple criteria analysis tool was used to simultaneously minimize consumption of water, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides and maximize socio-economic returns. Three scenarios for optimization of agricultural products were generated that alternatively emphasized on environmental and socio-economic goals. Comparing socio-economic and environmental performance of the optimized agricultural products under the three scenarios illustrated the conflict between social, economic, and environmental objectives. Of the six crops studied (wheat, barley, rice, soybeans, oilseed rape, and maize), rice ranked second in the social and fifth in the economic scenarios. Soybeans had the lowest rank for economic and social scenarios and its cultivation in the study area, in terms of economic and social goals, was rejected by the model. However, cultivation of soybeans continues in the area as a responsibility to cater for the major need of the country. Because of subsidized prices of water, fertilizers, and pesticides, the use of these items are far from optimized in the current agricultural practices in the area.

Joint Concept Development and Experimentation: A Force Development Perspective

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-01

REFINED SCENARIO SET KLE S E C U R IT Y E N V IR O N M E N T E X IS T IN G Existing Scenarios KLE Figure 7: Hierarchy of force...CORA TM 2012-036 References ..... [1] Palla, G ., Barabasi, A.L., and Vicsek, T . Quantifying Social Group Evolution. Nature, Vol 446, pp...activités interarmées de développement des forces ( planification axée sur les capacités, élaboration et expérimentation de concepts) ne sont pas bien

Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests.

PubMed

Moore, John R; Watt, Michael S

2015-08-01

Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process-based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid-range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Statistical assessment and hydrological utility of the latest multi-satellite precipitation analysis IMERG in Ganjiang River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Na; Tang, Guoqiang; Zhao, Ping; Hong, Yang; Gou, Yabin; Yang, Kai

2017-01-01

This study aims to statistically and hydrologically assess the hydrological utility of the latest Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals from Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) multi-satellite constellation over the mid-latitude Ganjiang River basin in China. The investigations are conducted at hourly and 0.1° resolutions throughout the rainy season from March 12 to September 30, 2014. Two high-quality quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) datasets, i.e., a gauge-corrected radar mosaic QPE product (RQPE) and a highly dense network of 1200 rain gauges, are used as the reference. For the implementation of the study, first, we compare IMERG product and RQPE with rain gauge-interpolated data, respectively. The results indicate that both remote sensing products can estimate precipitation fairly well over the basin, while RQPE significantly outperforms IMERG product in almost all the studied cases. The correlation coefficients of RQPE (CC = 0.98 and CC = 0.67) are much higher than those of IMERG product (CC = 0.80 and CC = 0.33) at basin and grid scales, respectively. Then, the hydrological assessment is conducted with the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) model under multiple parameterization scenarios, in which the model is calibrated using the rain gauge-interpolated data, RQPE, and IMERG products respectively. During the calibration period (from March 12 to May 31), the simulated streamflow based on rain gauge-interpolated data shows the highest Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient efficiency (NSCE) value (0.92), closely followed by the RQPE (NSCE = 0.84), while IMERG product performs barely acceptable (NSCE = 0.56). During the validation period (from June 1 to September 30), the three rainfall datasets are used to force the CREST model based on all the three calibrated parameter sets (i.e., nine combinations in total). RQPE outperforms rain gauge-interpolated data and IMERG product in all validation scenarios, possibly due to its advantageous capability in capturing high space-time variability of precipitation systems in the humid climate during the validation period. Overall, RQPE and rain gauge-interpolated data exhibit better performance compared with the newly available IMERG product, and RQPE is better than rain gauge-interpolated data to some extent due to the combination of both radar and rain gauge observations. IMERG-forced hourly CREST hydrologic model based on the Gauge- and RQPE-calibrated parameters performs well over Ganjiang River basin. Future studies should promote the hydrological application of RQPE datasets at global and local scales, and continuously improve IMERG algorithms.

Direct and indirect impacts of crop-livestock organization on mixed crop-livestock systems sustainability: a model-based study.

PubMed

Sneessens, I; Veysset, P; Benoit, M; Lamadon, A; Brunschwig, G

2016-11-01

Crop-livestock production is claimed more sustainable than specialized production systems. However, the presence of controversial studies suggests that there must be conditions of mixing crop and livestock productions to allow for higher sustainable performances. Whereas previous studies focused on the impact of crop-livestock interactions on performances, we posit here that crop-livestock organization is a key determinant of farming system sustainability. Crop-livestock organization refers to the percentage of the agricultural area that is dedicated to each production. Our objective is to investigate if crop-livestock organization has both a direct and an indirect impact on mixed crop-livestock (MC-L) sustainability. In that objective, we build a whole-farm model parametrized on representative French sheep and crop farming systems in plain areas (Vienne, France). This model permits simulating contrasted MC-L systems and their subsequent sustainability through the following indicators of performance: farm income, production, N balance, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (/kg product) and MJ consumption (/kg product). Two MC-L systems were simulated with contrasted crop-livestock organizations (MC20-L80: 20% of crops; MC80-L20: 80% of crops). A first scenario - constraining no crop-livestock interactions in both MC-L systems - permits highlighting that crop-livestock organization has a significant direct impact on performances that implies trade-offs between objectives of sustainability. Indeed, the MC80-L20 system is showing higher performances for farm income (+44%), livestock production (+18%) and crop GHG emissions (-14%) whereas the MC20-L80 system has a better N balance (-53%) and a lower livestock MJ consumption (-9%). A second scenario - allowing for crop-livestock interactions in both MC20-L80 and MC80-L20 systems - stated that crop-livestock organization has a significant indirect impact on performances. Indeed, even if crop-livestock interactions permit improving performances, crop-livestock organization influences the capacity of MC-L systems to benefit from crop-livestock interactions. As a consequence, we observed a decreasing performance trade-off between MC-L systems for farm income (-4%) and crop GHG emissions (-10%) whereas the gap increases for nitrogen balance (+23%), livestock production (+6%) - MJ consumption (+16%) - GHG emissions (+5%) and crop MJ consumption (+5%). However, the indirect impact of crop-livestock organization doesn't reverse the trend of trade-offs between objectives of sustainability determined by the direct impact of crop-livestock organization. As a conclusion, crop-livestock organization is a key factor that has to be taken into account when studying the sustainability of mixed crop-livestock systems.

A step forward in laccase exploitation: Recombinant production and evaluation of techno-economic feasibility of the process.

PubMed

Pezzella, Cinzia; Giacobelli, Valerio Guido; Lettera, Vincenzo; Olivieri, Giuseppe; Cicatiello, Paola; Sannia, Giovanni; Piscitelli, Alessandra

2017-10-10

Protein heterologous production offers viable opportunities to tailor laccase properties to specific industrial needs. The high redox potential laccase POXA1b from Pleurotus ostreatus was chosen as case study of marketable enzyme, due to its desirable properties in terms of activity/stability profile, and already assessed applicability. POXA1b was heterologously produced in Pichia pastoris by investigating the effect of inducible and constitutive expression systems on both the yield and the cost of its production. System performances were first assessed in shaken-flasks and then scaled-up in bioreactor. The production level obtained in the inducible system is 42U/mL, while the activity value achieved with the constitutive one is 60U/mL, the highest obtained in constitutive systems so far. The economic feasibility of recombinant laccase production was simulated, describing the case of an Italian small-medium enterprise. Two scenarios were evaluated: Scenario (I) production based on methanol inducible system; Scenario (II) production based on the constitutive system, fed with glycerol. At all the scales the glycerol-based fermentation is more economic than the methanol-based one. The price forecast for rPOXA1b production is 0.34€kU -1 for glycerol-based process, and is very competitive with the current price of commercial laccase. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation of Energy Savings in Automotive Coatings Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerini Romagnoli, Marco

Recently, the automakers have become more and more aware of the environmental and economic impact of their manufacturing processes. The paint shop is the largest energy user in a vehicle manufacturing plant, and one way to reduce costs and energy usage is the optimization of this area. This project aims at providing a tool to model and simulate a paint shop, in order to run and analyze some scenarios and case studies, helping to take strategic decisions. Analytical computations and real data were merged to build a tool that can be used by FCA for their Sterling Heights plant. Convection and conduction heat losses were modeled for the dip processes and the ovens. Thermal balances were used to compute the consumptions of booths, decks and ovens, while pump and fan energy consumptions were modeled for each sub-process. The user acts on a calendar, scheduling a year of production, and the model predicts the energy consumption of the paint shop. Five scenarios were run to test different conditions and the influence of scheduling on the energy consumption. Two different sets of production schedules have been evaluated, the first one fulfilling the production requirement in one shift of 10 hours, at high rate, the second one using two 7-hour-long shifts at medium production rate. It was found that the unit cost was minimized in the warmest months of spring and fall, and system shutdown was a crucial factor to reduce energy consumption. A fifth hypothetical scenario was run, with a 4 month continuous production and an 8 month total shutdown, which reduced the energy consumption to a half of the best realistic scenario. When the plant was run in a two-shifts configuration, the cost to coat a vehicle was found to be 29 with weekend shutdown, and 39 without. In the one-shift configuration, the cost was slightly higher, but the difference was less than 5%. While the fifth scenario showed a consistent reduction of the unit cost, inventory and logistic expenses deriving from the production strategy make this scenario almost impossible to realize. A sensitivity analysis was run on several parameters influencing the energy consumption of the paint shop, and the booths set point temperature was found to be the most significant factor.

Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A.

2014-07-01

The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products (HWP) model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. There was a trade-off between short-term and long-term goals, in that maximizing short-term emissions reduction could reduce the forest sector's ability to contribute to longer-term objectives. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of policies that deliver no net benefits to the atmosphere, (ii) a mix of strategies implemented across the country achieves the greatest mitigation impact, and (iii) because of the time delays in achieving carbon benefits for many forest-based mitigation activities, future contributions of the forest sector to climate mitigation can be maximized if implemented soon.

An Adjoint Force-restore Model for Glacier Terminus Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, D.; Leslie, L.; Karoly, D.

2006-12-01

A linear inverse formula comprises the basis for an individual treatment of 7 central Asian (25-55°N; 70-95°E) glaciers. The linear forward model is based on first order glacier dynamics, and requires the knowledge of reference states of forcing and glacier perturbation magnitude. In this study, the adjoint based 4D-var method was applied to optimally determine the reference states and make it possible to start the integration at an arbitrarily chosen time, and thus suitable to use the availability of the coupled general circulation model (CGCM) predictions of future temperature scenarios. Two sensitive yet uncertain glacier parameters and reference states at year 1900 are inferred from observed glacier length records distributed irregularly over the 20th century and the regional mean annual temperature anomaly (against 1961-1990 reference) time series. We rotated the temperature forcing for the Hadley Centre- Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (HadCRUT2), the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) observations, and the ensemble mean of multiple CGCM runs and compared the retrieval results. Because of the high resemblance between the three data sources after 1960, it was decided practicable to use the observed temperature as forcing in retrieving the model parameters and initial states and then run an extended period with forcing from ensemble mean CGCM temperature of the next century. The length fluctuation is estimated for the transient climate period with 9 CGCM simulations under SRES A2 (a strong emission scenario from the Special report on Emissions Scenarios). For the 60-year period 2000- 2060, all glaciers experienced salient shrinkage, especially those with gentle slopes. Although nearly one-third the year 2000 length will be reduced for some small glaciers, the very existence of the glaciers studied here is not threatened by year 2060. The differences in individual glacier responses are very large. No straightforward relationship is found between glacier size and fractional change of its length.

The response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire in California to future climate scenarios simulated by the MC1 dynamic vegetation dynamic.

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Raymond Drapek; Ronald P. Neilson

2006-01-01

The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change for California using the MAPSS-CENTURY (MCI) dynamic general vegetation model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined with increased growing season length and warmth, and increases in...

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII. The usable and realistic ground motion maps for urban areas are generated: - either from the assumption of a "reference earthquake" - or directly, showing values of macroseimic intensity generated by a damaging, real earthquake. In the study, applying deterministic approach, earthquake scenario in macroseismic intensity ("model" earthquake scenario) for the city of Sofia is generated. The deterministic "model" intensity scenario based on assumption of a "reference earthquake" is compared with a scenario based on observed macroseimic effects caused by the damaging 2012 earthquake (MW5.6). The difference between observed (Io) and predicted (Ip) intensities values is analyzed.

Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sweet, William V.; Kopp, Robert E.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Horton, Radley M.; Thieler, E. Robert; Zervas, Chris

2017-01-01

The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, 2) integrating the global scenarios with regional factors contributing to sea level change for the entire U.S. coastline, and 3) incorporating these regionally appropriate scenarios within coastal risk management tools and capabilities deployed by individual agencies in support of the needs of specific stakeholder groups and user communities. This technical report focuses on the first two of these tasks and reports on the production of gridded relative sea level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a key technical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).

LCA of an ice cream cup of polyethylene coated paper: how does the choice of the end-of-life affect the results?

PubMed

Buccino, Carla; Ferrara, Carmen; Malvano, Carmela; De Feo, Giovanni

2017-11-07

This study presents an evaluation of the environmental performance of an ice cream cup made of polyethylene (PE)/paper laminate using a life cycle assessment approach 'from cradle to grave'. Two opposite alternative disposal scenarios, as well as their intermediate combinations, were considered: 100% incineration and 100% landfilling. The environmental impacts were calculated using the EPD 2013 evaluation method since the study was developed in an Environmental Product Declaration perspective as well as the method ReCiPe 2008 H at the endpoint level. PE/paper laminate production was the most impactful process since it provided the highest contribution to total impacts in four of six impact categories considered. Ice cream cup production was the second impactful process. The 100% incineration scenario provided negligible contribution to life cycle total impact for all impact categories; while considering the landfilling scenario, the percentage contributions to the total impact provided by the end-of-life phase increased considerably, until to be comparable to the contributions provided by the production processes of the PE/paper laminate and the ice cream cup. The obtained results highlighted that different disposal scenarios can affect significantly the conclusions of a study. At the endpoint level, incineration was more environmentally sound than landfilling for all the ReCiPe damage categories.

Simulated long-term effects of varying tree retention on wood production, dead wood and carbon stock changes.

PubMed

Santaniello, Francesca; Djupström, Line B; Ranius, Thomas; Weslien, Jan; Rudolphi, Jörgen; Sonesson, Johan

2017-10-01

Boreal forests are an important source of timber and pulp wood, but provide also other products and services. Utilizing a simulation program and field data from a tree retention experiment in a Scots pine forest in central Sweden, we simulated the consequences during the following 100 years of various levels of retention on production of merchantable wood, dead wood input (as a proxy for biodiversity), and carbon stock changes. At the stand level, wood production decreased with increased retention levels, while dead wood input and carbon stock increased. We also compared 12 scenarios representing a land sharing/land sparing gradient. In each scenario, a constant volume of wood was harvested with a specific level of retention in a 100-ha landscape. The area not needed to reach the defined volume was set-aside during a 100-year rotation period, leading to decreasing area of set-asides with increasing level of retention across the 12 scenarios. Dead wood input was positively affected by the level of tree retention whereas the average carbon stock decreased slightly with increasing level of tree retention. The scenarios will probably vary in how they favor species preferring different substrates. Therefore, we conclude that a larger variation of landscape-level conservation strategies, also including active creation of dead wood, may be an attractive complement to the existing management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

PubMed

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-07-01

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

Calculating net primary productivity of forest ecosystem with G4M model: case study on South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, S.; Forsell, N.; Kindermann, G.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is considered as an important indicator for forest ecosystem since the role of forest is highlighted as a stepping stone for mitigating climate change. Especially rapidly urbanizing countries which have high carbon dioxide emission have large interest in calculating forest NPP under climate change. Also maximizing carbon sequestration in forest sector has became a global goal to minimize the impacts of climate change. Therefore, the objective of this research is estimating carbon stock change under the different climate change scenarios by using G4M (Global Forestry Model) model in South Korea. We analyzed four climate change scenarios in different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). In this study we used higher resolution data (1kmx1km) to produce precise estimation on NPP from regionalized four climate change scenarios in G4M model. Finally, we set up other environmental variables for G4M such as water holding capacity, soil type and elevation. As a result of this study, temperature showed significant trend during 2011 to 2100. Average annual temperature increased more than 5℃ in RCP 8.5 scenario while 1℃ increased in RCP 2.6 scenario. Each standard deviation of the annual average temperature showed similar trend. Average annual precipitation showed similarity within four scenarios. However the standard deviation of average annual precipitation is higher in RCP8.5 scenario which indicates the ranges of precipitation is wider in RCP8.5 scenario. These results present that climate indicators such as temperature and precipitation have uncertainties in climate change scenarios. NPP has changed from 5-13tC/ha/year in RCP2.6 scenario to 9-21 tC/ha/year in RCP8.5 scenario in 2100. In addition the spatial distribution of NPP presented different trend among the scenarios. In conclusion we calculated differences in temperature and precipitation and NPP change in different climate change scenarios. This study can be applied for maximizing carbon seqestration of vegetation.

Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuel Production from Macroalgae (Seaweed)

PubMed Central

Soleymani, Mohsen

2017-01-01

A techno-economic evaluation of bioenergy production from macroalgae was carried out in this study. Six different scenarios were examined for the production of different energy products and by-products. Seaweed was produced either via the longline method or the grid method. Final products of these scenarios were either ethanol from fermentation, or electricity from anaerobic digestion (AD). By-products were digestate for AD, and animal feed, or electricity and digestate, for the fermentation pathway. Bioenergy breakeven selling prices were investigated according to the cost components and the feedstock supply chain, while suggestions for potential optimization of costs were provided. The lowest production level of dry seaweed to meet 0.93 ($/L) for ethanol fuel and 0.07 $/kW-h for electricity was found to be 0.68 and 3.7 million tonnes (dry basis), respectively. At the moment, biofuel production from seaweed has been determined not to be economically feasible, but achieving economic production may be possible by lowering production costs and increasing the area under cultivation. PMID:29186857

40 yr phase-out for conventional coal? If only!

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Socolow, Robert

2012-03-01

Myhrvold and Caldeira worked out the climate consequences of various ways in which the world's current fleet of coal power plants could evolve into something different [1]. They imagined one-fortieth of the world's coal plants being closed down each year for 40 years. Two limiting cases are (1) nothing is built to take the place of this power, because efficiency gains have made them unnecessary, and (2) coal plants exactly like those now running take their place. Since coal power is the most carbon-intensive form of power, all other options fall between these limits. They looked at six single-technology alternatives: taking over from coal as we know it are coal with carbon dioxide capture and storage, natural gas, nuclear power and three forms of intermittent renewables (presented as baseload options). Moreover, whatever the alternative, it remains in place unchanged from year 40 through year 100. Results are presented as 100 yr trajectories for the increment in the average global surface temperature due only to this power production. For the coal-for-coal scenario, the surface temperature increase is about 0.13 °C in 40 yr and 0.31 °C in 100 yr. For the efficiency-for-coal scenario, the rise is 0.07 °C in 40 yr and 0.06 °C in 100 yr. Clearly, temperature rise is approximately proportional to emissions and these are self-consistent answers. For example, after 40 yr efficiency-for-coal has brought approximately half the temperature rise of coal-for-coal, and there have been exactly half the emissions. The efficiency-for-coal trajectory falls ever so slightly between years 40 and 100, because once CO2 enters the atmosphere it lingers. As for the absolute magnitude of the coal-to-coal trajectory, today's global coal power production (8300 TWh in 2008) is almost exactly what would be produced from one thousand one-gigawatt coal plants running flat out (8760 TWh), which is the coal power production assumed by Myhrvold and Caldeira. From table S1 of their paper, each GW-year of coal power production is accompanied by 6.59 Mt of CO2 emissions. Thus, a century of this coal will emit 659 billion tons of CO2. A rule of thumb recently promoted associates each trillion tons of carbon emissions (each 3.7 trillion tons of CO2 emissions) with a long-term temperature rise whose fifth and 95th per cent confidence intervals are 1.0 and 2.1 °C [2]. With this rule of thumb, the long-term temperature rise should fall between 0.18 and 0.38 °C, so the estimated rise of 0.31 °C agrees with the rule of thumb. Much of the paper is about estimates of the emissions for the alternatives to coal and efficiency. Emissions are estimated for building the physical stock as well as running it. The authors cite a high and a low value for each alternative, and the lower limits, with one exception, are close to what most analysis assumes. (The exception is natural gas, whose lower limit is 60% of the value for coal, even though values of 50% or lower are widely claimed.) The high limits are unorthodox and are already creating consternation. The high limit for hydropower reflects large emissions of methane from the lakes that form behind dams. In the cases of nuclear power, solar electric power, solar thermal power and wind power, the high limits can be attributed to emissions during construction. One suspects that these high values are straw men, avoidable with care. It is illuminating to compare the Myhrvold-Caldeira partial emissions scenarios with the two full blown scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA)—the Current Policy Scenario and the 450 Scenario, presented in World Energy Outlook 2010 [3]. Both IEA scenarios go only to 2035. In the Current Policies Scenario, coal emissions approximately double by 2035 (to 16 500 TWh) Myhrvold and Caldeira actually do not tell us that this is where global coal power is heading, in the absence of new policies and priorities. As for the IEA's 450 Scenario, it provides insight into the 40 yr phase-out for global coal power chosen by Myhrvold and Caldeira as their base case. In the 450 Scenario, global coal power falls to 5600 TWh in 2035, down one third from its 2008 value. By contrast, the pace for coal phase-out explored in the Myhrvold and Caldeira paper is about twice as fast: if their 40 yr phase-out had started in 2008, by 2035—27 yr later—global coal production would have fallen by about two thirds. I think one can view the 450 Scenario as capturing the IEA's judgment about the fastest achievable decarbonization of the world energy system. It is sobering to realize that allowing 40 yr for the closing out of world coal power production, which might strike some readers as relaxed, is actually so intense as to stretch credibility. The IEA 450 Scenario also sheds light on the small fraction of the potential change in the future of the global energy system that the Myhrvold-Caldeira paper captures. The 2700 TWh reduction in coal power production between 2008 and 2035 in the 450 Scenario is smaller in magnitude than the increases in wind power (3900 TWh), nuclear power (3700 TWh), and hydropower (2800 TWh) in the same interval. Myhrvold and Caldeira present a textbook exercise, not to be confused with an exploration of the full range of possible futures. I would not recommend this paper for its insight into energy systems. Rather, I would recommend it, strongly, as one of the rare papers that adequately confronts both of the sources of inertia that characterize our world: the inertia of the climate system epitomized by the durability of atmospheric CO2 and the inertia of the energy system epitomized by the durability of our capital stock. Confronting this inertia can lead us to despair that what we can change for the better each year matters so little. Or it can inspire us, because what we do each year that points in the wrong direction will take so long to undo. References [1] Myhrvold N P and Caldeira K 2012 Greenhouse gases, climate change and the transition from coal to low-carbon electricity Environ. Res. Lett. 7 014019 [2] Matthews H D, Gillett N P, Stott P A and Zickfeld K 2009 Nature 459 829 [3] IEA 2010 World Energy Outlook 2010 (Paris: IEA)

Application of automation and robotics to lunar surface human exploration operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodcock, Gordon R.; Sherwood, Brent; Buddington, Patricia A.; Bares, Leona C.; Folsom, Rolfe; Mah, Robert; Lousma, Jack

1990-01-01

Major results of a study applying automation and robotics to lunar surface base buildup and operations concepts are reported. The study developed a reference base scenario with specific goals, equipment concepts, robot concepts, activity schedules and buildup manifests. It examined crew roles, contingency cases and system reliability, and proposed a set of technologies appropriate and necessary for effective lunar operations. This paper refers readers to four companion papers for quantitative details where appropriate.

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Abundance of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) With Special Reference to North America and Europe.

PubMed

Kistner, Erica Jean

2017-12-08

The invasive brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys (Stål; Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), has recently emerged as a harmful pest of horticultural crops in North America and Europe. Native to East Asia, this highly polyphagous insect is spreading rapidly worldwide. Climate change will add further complications to managing this species in terms of both geographic distribution and population growth. This study used CLIMEX to compare potential H. halys distribution under recent and future climate models using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global circulation models, CSIRO Mk3.0 and MIROC-H. Simulated changes in seasonal phenology and voltinism were examined. Under the possible future climate scenarios, suitable range in Europe expands northward. In North America, the suitable H. halys range shifts northward into Canada and contracts from its southern temperature range limits in the United States due to increased heat stress. Prolonged periods of warm temperatures resulted in longer H. halys growing seasons. However, future climate scenarios indicated that rising summer temperatures decrease H. halys growth potential compared to recent climatic conditions, which in turn, may reduce mid-summer crop damage. Climate change may increase the number of H. halys generations produced annually, thereby enabling the invasive insect to become multivoltine in the northern latitudes of North America and Europe where it is currently reported to be univoltine. These results indicate prime horticultural production areas in Europe, the northeastern United States, and southeastern Canada are at greatest risk from H. halys under both current and possible future climates. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Ready-to-use pre-filled syringes of atropine for anaesthesia care in French hospitals - a budget impact analysis.

PubMed

Benhamou, Dan; Piriou, Vincent; De Vaumas, Cyrille; Albaladejo, Pierre; Malinovsky, Jean-Marc; Doz, Marianne; Lafuma, Antoine; Bouaziz, Hervé

2017-04-01

Patient safety is improved by the use of labelled, ready-to-use, pre-filled syringes (PFS) when compared to conventional methods of syringe preparation (CMP) of the same product from an ampoule. However, the PFS presentation costs more than the CMP presentation. To estimate the budget impact for French hospitals of switching from atropine in ampoules to atropine PFS for anaesthesia care. A model was constructed to simulate the financial consequences of the use of atropine PFS in operating theatres, taking into account wastage and medication errors. The model tested different scenarios and a sensitivity analysis was performed. In a reference scenario, the systematic use of atropine PFS rather than atropine CMP yielded a net one-year budget saving of €5,255,304. Medication errors outweighed other cost factors relating to the use of atropine CMP (€9,425,448). Avoidance of wastage in the case of atropine CMP (prepared and unused) was a major source of savings (€1,167,323). Significant savings were made by means of other scenarios examined. The sensitivity analysis suggests that the results obtained are robust and stable for a range of parameter estimates and assumptions. The financial model was based on data obtained from the literature and expert opinions. The budget impact analysis shows that even though atropine PFS is more expensive than atropine CMP, its use would lead to significant cost savings. Savings would mainly be due to fewer medication errors and their associated consequences and the absence of wastage when atropine syringes are prepared in advance. Copyright © 2016 Société française d'anesthésie et de réanimation (Sfar). Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

2017-09-01

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

Indoor exposure to toluene from printed matter matters: complementary views from life cycle assessment and risk assessment.

PubMed

Walser, Tobias; Juraske, Ronnie; Demou, Evangelia; Hellweg, Stefanie

2014-01-01

A pronounced presence of toluene from rotogravure printed matter has been frequently observed indoors. However, its consequences to human health in the life cycle of magazines are poorly known. Therefore, we quantified human-health risks in indoor environments with Risk Assessment (RA) and impacts relative to the total impact of toxic releases occurring in the life cycle of a magazine with Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). We used a one-box indoor model to estimate toluene concentrations in printing facilities, newsstands, and residences in a best, average, and worst-case scenario. The modeled concentrations are in the range of the values measured in on-site campaigns. Toluene concentrations can be close or even surpass the occupational legal thresholds in printing facilities in realistic worst-case scenarios. The concentrations in homes can surpass the US EPA reference dose (69 μg/kg/day) in worst-case scenarios, but are still at least 1 order of magnitude lower than in press rooms or newsstands. However, toluene inhaled at home becomes the dominant contribution to the total potential human toxicity impacts of toluene from printed matter when assessed with LCA, using the USEtox method complemented with indoor characterization factors for toluene. The significant contribution (44%) of toluene exposure in production, retail, and use in households, to the total life cycle impact of a magazine in the category of human toxicity, demonstrates that the indoor compartment requires particular attention in LCA. While RA works with threshold levels, LCA assumes that every toxic emission causes an incremental change to the total impact. Here, the combination of the two paradigms provides valuable information on the life cycle stages of printed matter.

The Electronic Library Workstation--Today.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nolte, James

1990-01-01

Describes the components--hardware, software and applications, CD-ROM and online reference resources, and telecommunications links--of an electronic library workstation in use at Clarkson University (Potsdam, New York). Data manipulation, a hypothetical research scenario, and recommended workstation capabilities are also discussed. (MES)

The Directed Case Method.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cliff, William H.; Curtin, Leslie Nesbitt

2000-01-01

Provides an example of a directed case on human anatomy and physiology. Uses brief real life newspaper articles and clinical descriptions of medical reference texts to describe an actual, fictitious, or composite event. Includes interrelated human anatomy and physiology topics in the scenario. (YDS)

Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.

2013-05-01

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documentsmore » data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.« less

Risk of spring frost to apple production under future climate scenarios: the role of phenological acclimation.

PubMed

Eccel, Emanuele; Rea, Roberto; Caffarra, Amelia; Crisci, Alfonso

2009-05-01

In the context of global warming, the general trend towards earlier flowering dates of many temperate tree species is likely to result in an increased risk of damage from exposure to frost. To test this hypothesis, a phenological model of apple flowering was applied to a temperature series from two locations in an important area for apple production in Europe (Trentino, Italy). Two simulated 50-year climatic projections (A2 and B2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change--Special Report on Emission Scenarios) from the HadCM3 general circulation model were statistically downscaled to the two sites. Hourly temperature records over a 40-year period were used as the reference for past climate. In the phenological model, the heat requirement (degree hours) for flowering was parameterized using two approaches; static (constant over time) and dynamic (climate dependent). Parameterisation took into account the trees' adaptation to changing temperatures based on either past instrumental records or the downscaled outputs from the climatic simulations. Flowering dates for the past 40 years and simulated flowering dates for the next 50 years were used in the model. A significant trend towards earlier flowering was clearly detected in the past. This negative trend was also apparent in the simulated data. However, the significance was less apparent when the "dynamic" setting for the degree hours requirement was used in the model. The number of frost episodes and flowering dates, on an annual basis, were graphed to assess the risk of spring frost. Risk analysis confirmed a lower risk of exposure to frost at present than in the past, and probably either constant or a slightly lower risk in future, especially given that physiological processes are expected to acclimate to higher temperatures.

On the failure behaviour to striking bow penetration of impacted marine-steel structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabowo, Aditya Rio; Muttaqie, Teguh; Sohn, Jung Min; Bae, Dong Myung; Setiyawan, Agus

2018-04-01

Demands for water transportation modes are continuously increasing as rapid economic and industrial growths in the recent decade. Ship as representative of the water transportation is generally needed to carry various products from one location to another. Besides as product carrier, ship also acts as public facility to transport human across islands for number of reasons, such as tourism and vehicle. Considering its importance, structural damage due to accidental loads or so-called impact can cause unacceptable casualties which threat ship passenger, shipping industry and maritime environment in same time. The most frequent impact phenomena occur in forms of collision and grounding, which are targeting side structure and double bottom consecutively. However, since responses of the impacts on structure are highly nonlinear and vary due to development of ship structures, sustainable analysis as an update of pioneer calculation can be beneficial as rational reference for improving safety and navigational instruments. This work aims to assess failures of the side structures subjected to penetration of striking bow in ship-ship collision scenario. Locations of impact are idealized to happen on after-end, midsection and fore-end to provide complete assessment. Striking bow is to be deployed by varying input velocity to observe significance of the fractures on the side structure. This configuration is implemented on the designed collision scenario, and later calculated using nonlinear finite element method (NLFEM). Summary of the solution indicated that the midsection produced the highest resistance against side collision. Breaching of the inner shell was successfully avoided on the fore-end, but the critical damage to the cargo was observed during bow penetration to the after-end region. This location was recommended to be added by longitudinal framing to increase its resistance against ship collision.

Computational path planner for product assembly in complex environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Wei; Liu, Jianhua; Ning, Ruxin; Liu, Mi

2013-03-01

Assembly path planning is a crucial problem in assembly related design and manufacturing processes. Sampling based motion planning algorithms are used for computational assembly path planning. However, the performance of such algorithms may degrade much in environments with complex product structure, narrow passages or other challenging scenarios. A computational path planner for automatic assembly path planning in complex 3D environments is presented. The global planning process is divided into three phases based on the environment and specific algorithms are proposed and utilized in each phase to solve the challenging issues. A novel ray test based stochastic collision detection method is proposed to evaluate the intersection between two polyhedral objects. This method avoids fake collisions in conventional methods and degrades the geometric constraint when a part has to be removed with surface contact with other parts. A refined history based rapidly-exploring random tree (RRT) algorithm which bias the growth of the tree based on its planning history is proposed and employed in the planning phase where the path is simple but the space is highly constrained. A novel adaptive RRT algorithm is developed for the path planning problem with challenging scenarios and uncertain environment. With extending values assigned on each tree node and extending schemes applied, the tree can adapts its growth to explore complex environments more efficiently. Experiments on the key algorithms are carried out and comparisons are made between the conventional path planning algorithms and the presented ones. The comparing results show that based on the proposed algorithms, the path planner can compute assembly path in challenging complex environments more efficiently and with higher success. This research provides the references to the study of computational assembly path planning under complex environments.

Use of simulated patients to assess the clinical and communication skills of community pharmacists.

PubMed

Weiss, Marjorie C; Booth, Anneka; Jones, Bethan; Ramjeet, Sarah; Wong, Eva

2010-06-01

To investigate the quality and appropriateness of Emergency Hormonal Contraception (EHC) supply from community pharmacies. Community pharmacies in the southwest of England during 2007. Two simulated patient ('mystery shopper') scenarios to each participating pharmacy, one where the supply of EHC would be appropriate (scenario 1) and one where there was a drug interaction between EHC and St John's Wort, and the supply inappropriate (scenario 2). Pharmacy consultations were rated using criteria developed from two focus groups: one with pharmacist academics and one with female university students. Feedback to pharmacists to inform their continuing professional development was provided. Scores on rating scales encompassing the clinical and communication skills of the participating community pharmacists completed immediately after each mystery shopper visit. 40 pharmacist visits were completed: 21 for scenario 1 and 19 for scenario 2. Eighteen pharmacists were visited twice. Five pharmacists visited for scenario 2 supplied EHC against professional guidance, although other reference sources conflicted with this advice. Pharmacies which were part of the local PGD scheme scored higher overall in scenario 1 (P = 0.005) than those not part of the scheme. Overall the communication skills of pharmacists were rated highly although some pharmacists used jargon when explaining the interaction for scenario 2. Formatively assessing communication skills in an integrative manner alongside clinical skills has been identified as an important part of the medical consultation skills training and can be incorporated into the routine assessment and feedback of pharmacy over-the-counter medicines advice.

Preliminary identification of potentially disruptive scenarios at the Greater Confinement Disposal Facility, Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guzowski, R.V.; Newman, G.

1993-12-01

The Greater Confinement Disposal location is being evaluated to determine whether defense-generated transuranic waste buried at this location complies with the Containment Requirements established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify those combinations of events and processes (scenarios) that define possible future states of the disposal system for which performance assessments must be performed. An established scenario-development procedure was used to identify a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios. To assure completeness, 761 features, events, processes, and other listings (FEPS) were compiled from 11 references. This number was reduced to 205 primarily throughmore » the elimination of duplications. The 205 FEPs were screened based on site-specific, goal-specific, and regulatory criteria. Four events survived screening and were used in preliminary scenario development: (1) exploratory drilling penetrates a GCD borehole, (2) drilling of a withdrawal/injection well penetrates a GCD borehole, (3) subsidence occurs at the RWMS, and (4) irrigation occurs at the RWMS. A logic diagram was used to develop 16 scenarios from the four events. No screening of these scenarios was attempted at this time. Additional screening of the currently retained events and processes will be based on additional data and information from site-characterization activities. When screening of the events and processes is completed, a final set of scenarios will be developed and screened based on consequence and probability of occurrence.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hellwinckel, Chad; Clark, Christopher; Langholtz, Matthew

We used a socioeconomic model to estimate the land-use implications on the U.S. Conservation Reserve Program from potential increases in second-generation biofuel production. A baseline scenario with no second-generation biofuel production is compared to a scenario where the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) volumes are met by 2022. We allow for the possibility of converting expiring CRP lands to alternative uses such as conventional crops, dedicated second-generation biofuel crops, or harvesting existing CRP grasses for biomass. Our results indicate that RFS2 volumes (RFS2-v) can be met primarily with crop residues (78% of feedstock demand) and woody residues (19% of feedstock demand)more » compared with dedicated biomass (3% of feedstock demand), with only minimal conversion of cropland (0.27 million hectares, <1% of total cropland), pastureland (0.28 million hectares of pastureland, <1% of total pastureland), and CRP lands (0.29 million hectares of CRP lands, 3% of existing CRP lands) to biomass production. Meeting RFS2 volumes would reduce CRP re-enrollment by 0.19 million hectares, or 4%, below the baseline scenario where RFS2 is not met. Yet under RFS2-v scenario, expiring CRP lands are more likely to be converted to or maintain perennial cover, with 1.78 million hectares of CRP lands converting to hay production, and 0.29 million hectares being harvested for existing grasses. A small amount of CRP is harvested for existing biomass, but no conversion of CRP to dedicated biomass crops, such as switchgrass, are projected to occur. Although less land is enrolled in CRP under RFS2-v scenario, total land in perennial cover increases by 0.15 million hectares, or 2%, under RFS2-v. Sensitivity to yield, payment and residue retention assumptions are evaluated.« less

Search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with tau leptons in √{s} = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aaboud, M.; Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdinov, O.; Abeloos, B.; Abidi, S. H.; AbouZeid, O. S.; Abraham, N. L.; Abramowicz, H.; Abreu, H.; Abreu, R.; Abulaiti, Y.; Acharya, B. S.; Adachi, S.; Adamczyk, L.; Adelman, J.; Adersberger, M.; Adye, T.; Affolder, A. A.; Afik, Y.; Agatonovic-Jovin, T.; Agheorghiesei, C.; Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.; Ahlen, S. P.; Ahmadov, F.; Aielli, G.; Akatsuka, S.; Akerstedt, H.; Åkesson, T. P. A.; Akilli, E.; Akimov, A. V.; Alberghi, G. L.; Albert, J.; Albicocco, P.; Alconada Verzini, M. J.; Alderweireldt, S. C.; Aleksa, M.; Aleksandrov, I. N.; Alexa, C.; Alexander, G.; Alexopoulos, T.; Alhroob, M.; Ali, B.; Aliev, M.; Alimonti, G.; Alison, J.; Alkire, S. P.; Allbrooke, B. M. M.; Allen, B. W.; Allport, P. P.; Aloisio, A.; Alonso, A.; Alonso, F.; Alpigiani, C.; Alshehri, A. A.; Alstaty, M. I.; Alvarez Gonzalez, B.; Álvarez Piqueras, D.; Alviggi, M. G.; Amadio, B. T.; Amaral Coutinho, Y.; Amelung, C.; Amidei, D.; Amor Dos Santos, S. P.; Amoroso, S.; Amundsen, G.; Anastopoulos, C.; Ancu, L. S.; Andari, N.; Andeen, T.; Anders, C. F.; Anders, J. K.; Anderson, K. J.; Andreazza, A.; Andrei, V.; Angelidakis, S.; Angelozzi, I.; Angerami, A.; Anisenkov, A. V.; Anjos, N.; Annovi, A.; Antel, C.; Antonelli, M.; Antonov, A.; Antrim, D. J.; Anulli, F.; Aoki, M.; Aperio Bella, L.; Arabidze, G.; Arai, Y.; Araque, J. P.; Araujo Ferraz, V.; Arce, A. T. H.; Ardell, R. E.; Arduh, F. A.; Arguin, J.-F.; Argyropoulos, S.; Arik, M.; Armbruster, A. J.; Armitage, L. J.; Arnaez, O.; Arnold, H.; Arratia, M.; Arslan, O.; Artamonov, A.; Artoni, G.; Artz, S.; Asai, S.; Asbah, N.; Ashkenazi, A.; Asquith, L.; Assamagan, K.; Astalos, R.; Atkinson, M.; Atlay, N. B.; Augsten, K.; Avolio, G.; Axen, B.; Ayoub, M. K.; Azuelos, G.; Baas, A. E.; Baca, M. J.; Bachacou, H.; Bachas, K.; Backes, M.; Bagnaia, P.; Bahmani, M.; Bahrasemani, H.; Baines, J. T.; Bajic, M.; Baker, O. K.; Baldin, E. M.; Balek, P.; Balli, F.; Balunas, W. K.; Banas, E.; Bandyopadhyay, A.; Banerjee, Sw.; Bannoura, A. A. E.; Barak, L.; Barberio, E. L.; Barberis, D.; Barbero, M.; Barillari, T.; Barisits, M.-S.; Barkeloo, J. T.; Barklow, T.; Barlow, N.; Barnes, S. L.; Barnett, B. M.; Barnett, R. M.; Barnovska-Blenessy, Z.; Baroncelli, A.; Barone, G.; Barr, A. J.; Barranco Navarro, L.; Barreiro, F.; Barreiro Guimarães da Costa, J.; Bartoldus, R.; Barton, A. E.; Bartos, P.; Basalaev, A.; Bassalat, A.; Bates, R. L.; Batista, S. J.; Batley, J. R.; Battaglia, M.; Bauce, M.; Bauer, F.; Bawa, H. S.; Beacham, J. B.; Beattie, M. D.; Beau, T.; Beauchemin, P. H.; Bechtle, P.; Beck, H. P.; Beck, H. C.; Becker, K.; Becker, M.; Becot, C.; Beddall, A. J.; Beddall, A.; Bednyakov, V. A.; Bedognetti, M.; Bee, C. P.; Beermann, T. A.; Begalli, M.; Begel, M.; Behr, J. K.; Bell, A. S.; Bella, G.; Bellagamba, L.; Bellerive, A.; Bellomo, M.; Belotskiy, K.; Beltramello, O.; Belyaev, N. L.; Benary, O.; Benchekroun, D.; Bender, M.; Bendtz, K.; Benekos, N.; Benhammou, Y.; Benhar Noccioli, E.; Benitez, J.; Benjamin, D. P.; Benoit, M.; Bensinger, J. R.; Bentvelsen, S.; Beresford, L.; Beretta, M.; Berge, D.; Bergeaas Kuutmann, E.; Berger, N.; Beringer, J.; Berlendis, S.; Bernard, N. R.; Bernardi, G.; Bernius, C.; Bernlochner, F. U.; Berry, T.; Berta, P.; Bertella, C.; Bertoli, G.; Bertolucci, F.; Bertram, I. A.; Bertsche, C.; Bertsche, D.; Besjes, G. J.; Bessidskaia Bylund, O.; Bessner, M.; Besson, N.; Bethani, A.; Bethke, S.; Bevan, A. J.; Beyer, J.; Bianchi, R. M.; Biebel, O.; Biedermann, D.; Bielski, R.; Bierwagen, K.; Biesuz, N. V.; Biglietti, M.; Billoud, T. R. V.; Bilokon, H.; Bindi, M.; Bingul, A.; Bini, C.; Biondi, S.; Bisanz, T.; Bittrich, C.; Bjergaard, D. M.; Black, J. E.; Black, K. M.; Blair, R. E.; Blazek, T.; Bloch, I.; Blocker, C.; Blue, A.; Blum, W.; Blumenschein, U.; Blunier, S.; Bobbink, G. J.; Bobrovnikov, V. S.; Bocchetta, S. S.; Bocci, A.; Bock, C.; Boehler, M.; Boerner, D.; Bogavac, D.; Bogdanchikov, A. G.; Bohm, C.; Boisvert, V.; Bokan, P.; Bold, T.; Boldyrev, A. S.; Bolz, A. E.; Bomben, M.; Bona, M.; Boonekamp, M.; Borisov, A.; Borissov, G.; Bortfeldt, J.; Bortoletto, D.; Bortolotto, V.; Boscherini, D.; Bosman, M.; Bossio Sola, J. D.; Boudreau, J.; Bouffard, J.; Bouhova-Thacker, E. V.; Boumediene, D.; Bourdarios, C.; Boutle, S. K.; Boveia, A.; Boyd, J.; Boyko, I. R.; Bozson, A. J.; Bracinik, J.; Brandt, A.; Brandt, G.; Brandt, O.; Bratzler, U.; Brau, B.; Brau, J. E.; Breaden Madden, W. D.; Brendlinger, K.; Brennan, A. J.; Brenner, L.; Brenner, R.; Bressler, S.; Briglin, D. L.; Bristow, T. M.; Britton, D.; Britzger, D.; Brochu, F. M.; Brock, I.; Brock, R.; Brooijmans, G.; Brooks, T.; Brooks, W. K.; Brosamer, J.; Brost, E.; Broughton, J. H.; Bruckman de Renstrom, P. A.; Bruncko, D.; Bruni, A.; Bruni, G.; Bruni, L. S.; Bruno, S.; Brunt, BH; Bruschi, M.; Bruscino, N.; Bryant, P.; Bryngemark, L.; Buanes, T.; Buat, Q.; Buchholz, P.; Buckley, A. G.; Budagov, I. A.; Buehrer, F.; Bugge, M. K.; Bulekov, O.; Bullock, D.; Burch, T. J.; Burdin, S.; Burgard, C. D.; Burger, A. M.; Burghgrave, B.; Burka, K.; Burke, S.; Burmeister, I.; Burr, J. T. P.; Busato, E.; Büscher, D.; Büscher, V.; Bussey, P.; Butler, J. M.; Buttar, C. M.; Butterworth, J. M.; Butti, P.; Buttinger, W.; Buzatu, A.; Buzykaev, A. R.; Cabrera Urbán, S.; Caforio, D.; Cairo, V. M.; Cakir, O.; Calace, N.; Calafiura, P.; Calandri, A.; Calderini, G.; Calfayan, P.; Callea, G.; Caloba, L. P.; Calvente Lopez, S.; Calvet, D.; Calvet, S.; Calvet, T. P.; Camacho Toro, R.; Camarda, S.; Camarri, P.; Cameron, D.; Caminal Armadans, R.; Camincher, C.; Campana, S.; Campanelli, M.; Camplani, A.; Campoverde, A.; Canale, V.; Cano Bret, M.; Cantero, J.; Cao, T.; Capeans Garrido, M. D. M.; Caprini, I.; Caprini, M.; Capua, M.; Carbone, R. M.; Cardarelli, R.; Cardillo, F.; Carli, I.; Carli, T.; Carlino, G.; Carlson, B. T.; Carminati, L.; Carney, R. M. D.; Caron, S.; Carquin, E.; Carrá, S.; Carrillo-Montoya, G. D.; Casadei, D.; Casado, M. P.; Casolino, M.; Casper, D. W.; Castelijn, R.; Castillo Gimenez, V.; Castro, N. F.; Catinaccio, A.; Catmore, J. R.; Cattai, A.; Caudron, J.; Cavaliere, V.; Cavallaro, E.; Cavalli, D.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Cavasinni, V.; Celebi, E.; Ceradini, F.; Cerda Alberich, L.; Cerqueira, A. S.; Cerri, A.; Cerrito, L.; Cerutti, F.; Cervelli, A.; Cetin, S. A.; Chafaq, A.; Chakraborty, D.; Chan, S. K.; Chan, W. S.; Chan, Y. L.; Chang, P.; Chapman, J. D.; Charlton, D. G.; Chau, C. C.; Chavez Barajas, C. A.; Che, S.; Cheatham, S.; Chegwidden, A.; Chekanov, S.; Chekulaev, S. V.; Chelkov, G. A.; Chelstowska, M. A.; Chen, C.; Chen, C.; Chen, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, S.; Chen, S.; Chen, X.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H. C.; Cheng, H. J.; Cheplakov, A.; Cheremushkina, E.; Cherkaoui El Moursli, R.; Cheu, E.; Cheung, K.; Chevalier, L.; Chiarella, V.; Chiarelli, G.; Chiodini, G.; Chisholm, A. S.; Chitan, A.; Chiu, Y. H.; Chizhov, M. V.; Choi, K.; Chomont, A. R.; Chouridou, S.; Chow, Y. S.; Christodoulou, V.; Chu, M. C.; Chudoba, J.; Chuinard, A. J.; Chwastowski, J. J.; Chytka, L.; Ciftci, A. K.; Cinca, D.; Cindro, V.; Cioara, I. A.; Ciocca, C.; Ciocio, A.; Cirotto, F.; Citron, Z. H.; Citterio, M.; Ciubancan, M.; Clark, A.; Clark, B. L.; Clark, M. R.; Clark, P. J.; Clarke, R. N.; Clement, C.; Coadou, Y.; Cobal, M.; Coccaro, A.; Cochran, J.; Colasurdo, L.; Cole, B.; Colijn, A. P.; Collot, J.; Colombo, T.; Conde Muiño, P.; Coniavitis, E.; Connell, S. H.; Connelly, I. A.; Constantinescu, S.; Conti, G.; Conventi, F.; Cooke, M.; Cooper-Sarkar, A. M.; Cormier, F.; Cormier, K. J. R.; Corradi, M.; Corriveau, F.; Cortes-Gonzalez, A.; Cortiana, G.; Costa, G.; Costa, M. J.; Costanzo, D.; Cottin, G.; Cowan, G.; Cox, B. E.; Cranmer, K.; Crawley, S. J.; Creager, R. A.; Cree, G.; Crépé-Renaudin, S.; Crescioli, F.; Cribbs, W. A.; Cristinziani, M.; Croft, V.; Crosetti, G.; Cueto, A.; Cuhadar Donszelmann, T.; Cukierman, A. R.; Cummings, J.; Curatolo, M.; Cúth, J.; Czekierda, S.; Czodrowski, P.; D'amen, G.; D'Auria, S.; D'eramo, L.; D'Onofrio, M.; Da Cunha Sargedas De Sousa, M. J.; Da Via, C.; Dabrowski, W.; Dado, T.; Dai, T.; Dale, O.; Dallaire, F.; Dallapiccola, C.; Dam, M.; Dandoy, J. R.; Daneri, M. F.; Dang, N. P.; Daniells, A. C.; Dann, N. S.; Danninger, M.; Dano Hoffmann, M.; Dao, V.; Darbo, G.; Darmora, S.; Dassoulas, J.; Dattagupta, A.; Daubney, T.; Davey, W.; David, C.; Davidek, T.; Davis, D. R.; Davison, P.; Dawe, E.; Dawson, I.; De, K.; de Asmundis, R.; De Benedetti, A.; De Castro, S.; De Cecco, S.; De Groot, N.; de Jong, P.; De la Torre, H.; De Lorenzi, F.; De Maria, A.; De Pedis, D.; De Salvo, A.; De Sanctis, U.; De Santo, A.; De Vasconcelos Corga, K.; De Vivie De Regie, J. B.; Debbe, R.; Debenedetti, C.; Dedovich, D. V.; Dehghanian, N.; Deigaard, I.; Del Gaudio, M.; Del Peso, J.; Delgove, D.; Deliot, F.; Delitzsch, C. M.; Dell'Acqua, A.; Dell'Asta, L.; Dell'Orso, M.; Della Pietra, M.; della Volpe, D.; Delmastro, M.; Delporte, C.; Delsart, P. A.; DeMarco, D. A.; Demers, S.; Demichev, M.; Demilly, A.; Denisov, S. P.; Denysiuk, D.; Derendarz, D.; Derkaoui, J. E.; Derue, F.; Dervan, P.; Desch, K.; Deterre, C.; Dette, K.; Devesa, M. R.; Deviveiros, P. O.; Dewhurst, A.; Dhaliwal, S.; Di Bello, F. A.; Di Ciaccio, A.; Di Ciaccio, L.; Di Clemente, W. K.; Di Donato, C.; Di Girolamo, A.; Di Girolamo, B.; Di Micco, B.; Di Nardo, R.; Di Petrillo, K. F.; Di Simone, A.; Di Sipio, R.; Di Valentino, D.; Diaconu, C.; Diamond, M.; Dias, F. A.; Diaz, M. A.; Diehl, E. B.; Dietrich, J.; Díez Cornell, S.; Dimitrievska, A.; Dingfelder, J.; Dita, P.; Dita, S.; Dittus, F.; Djama, F.; Djobava, T.; Djuvsland, J. I.; do Vale, M. A. B.; Dobos, D.; Dobre, M.; Doglioni, C.; Dolejsi, J.; Dolezal, Z.; Donadelli, M.; Donati, S.; Dondero, P.; Donini, J.; Dopke, J.; Doria, A.; Dova, M. T.; Doyle, A. T.; Drechsler, E.; Dris, M.; Du, Y.; Duarte-Campderros, J.; Dubreuil, A.; Duchovni, E.; Duckeck, G.; Ducourthial, A.; Ducu, O. A.; Duda, D.; Dudarev, A.; Dudder, A. Chr.; Duffield, E. M.; Duflot, L.; Dührssen, M.; Dulsen, C.; Dumancic, M.; Dumitriu, A. E.; Duncan, A. K.; Dunford, M.; Duran Yildiz, H.; Düren, M.; Durglishvili, A.; Duschinger, D.; Dutta, B.; Duvnjak, D.; Dyndal, M.; Dziedzic, B. S.; Eckardt, C.; Ecker, K. M.; Edgar, R. C.; Eifert, T.; Eigen, G.; Einsweiler, K.; Ekelof, T.; El Kacimi, M.; El Kosseifi, R.; Ellajosyula, V.; Ellert, M.; Elles, S.; Ellinghaus, F.; Elliot, A. A.; Ellis, N.; Elmsheuser, J.; Elsing, M.; Emeliyanov, D.; Enari, Y.; Endner, O. C.; Ennis, J. S.; Erdmann, J.; Ereditato, A.; Ernst, M.; Errede, S.; Escalier, M.; Escobar, C.; Esposito, B.; Estrada Pastor, O.; Etienvre, A. I.; Etzion, E.; Evans, H.; Ezhilov, A.; Ezzi, M.; Fabbri, F.; Fabbri, L.; Fabiani, V.; Facini, G.; Fakhrutdinov, R. M.; Falciano, S.; Falla, R. J.; Faltova, J.; Fang, Y.; Fanti, M.; Farbin, A.; Farilla, A.; Farina, C.; Farina, E. M.; Farooque, T.; Farrell, S.; Farrington, S. M.; Farthouat, P.; Fassi, F.; Fassnacht, P.; Fassouliotis, D.; Faucci Giannelli, M.; Favareto, A.; Fawcett, W. J.; Fayard, L.; Fedin, O. L.; Fedorko, W.; Feigl, S.; Feligioni, L.; Feng, C.; Feng, E. J.; Feng, H.; Fenton, M. J.; Fenyuk, A. B.; Feremenga, L.; Fernandez Martinez, P.; Fernandez Perez, S.; Ferrando, J.; Ferrari, A.; Ferrari, P.; Ferrari, R.; Ferreira de Lima, D. E.; Ferrer, A.; Ferrere, D.; Ferretti, C.; Fiedler, F.; Filipčič, A.; Filipuzzi, M.; Filthaut, F.; Fincke-Keeler, M.; Finelli, K. D.; Fiolhais, M. C. N.; Fiorini, L.; Fischer, A.; Fischer, C.; Fischer, J.; Fisher, W. C.; Flaschel, N.; Fleck, I.; Fleischmann, P.; Fletcher, R. R. M.; Flick, T.; Flierl, B. M.; Flores Castillo, L. R.; Flowerdew, M. J.; Forcolin, G. T.; Formica, A.; Förster, F. A.; Forti, A.; Foster, A. G.; Fournier, D.; Fox, H.; Fracchia, S.; Francavilla, P.; Franchini, M.; Franchino, S.; Francis, D.; Franconi, L.; Franklin, M.; Frate, M.; Fraternali, M.; Freeborn, D.; Fressard-Batraneanu, S. M.; Freund, B.; Froidevaux, D.; Frost, J. A.; Fukunaga, C.; Fusayasu, T.; Fuster, J.; Gabaldon, C.; Gabizon, O.; Gabrielli, A.; Gabrielli, A.; Gach, G. P.; Gadatsch, S.; Gadomski, S.; Gagliardi, G.; Gagnon, L. G.; Galea, C.; Galhardo, B.; Gallas, E. J.; Gallop, B. J.; Gallus, P.; Galster, G.; Gan, K. K.; Ganguly, S.; Gao, Y.; Gao, Y. S.; Garay Walls, F. M.; García, C.; García Navarro, J. E.; García Pascual, J. A.; Garcia-Sciveres, M.; Gardner, R. W.; Garelli, N.; Garonne, V.; Gascon Bravo, A.; Gasnikova, K.; Gatti, C.; Gaudiello, A.; Gaudio, G.; Gavrilenko, I. L.; Gay, C.; Gaycken, G.; Gazis, E. N.; Gee, C. N. P.; Geisen, J.; Geisen, M.; Geisler, M. P.; Gellerstedt, K.; Gemme, C.; Genest, M. H.; Geng, C.; Gentile, S.; Gentsos, C.; George, S.; Gerbaudo, D.; Gershon, A.; Geßner, G.; Ghasemi, S.; Ghneimat, M.; Giacobbe, B.; Giagu, S.; Giangiacomi, N.; Giannetti, P.; Gibson, S. M.; Gignac, M.; Gilchriese, M.; Gillberg, D.; Gilles, G.; Gingrich, D. M.; Giordani, M. P.; Giorgi, F. M.; Giraud, P. F.; Giromini, P.; Giugliarelli, G.; Giugni, D.; Giuli, F.; Giuliani, C.; Giulini, M.; Gjelsten, B. K.; Gkaitatzis, S.; Gkialas, I.; Gkougkousis, E. L.; Gkountoumis, P.; Gladilin, L. K.; Glasman, C.; Glatzer, J.; Glaysher, P. C. F.; Glazov, A.; Goblirsch-Kolb, M.; Godlewski, J.; Goldfarb, S.; Golling, T.; Golubkov, D.; Gomes, A.; Gonçalo, R.; Goncalves Gama, R.; Goncalves Pinto Firmino Da Costa, J.; Gonella, G.; Gonella, L.; Gongadze, A.; González de la Hoz, S.; Gonzalez-Sevilla, S.; Goossens, L.; Gorbounov, P. A.; Gordon, H. A.; Gorelov, I.; Gorini, B.; Gorini, E.; Gorišek, A.; Goshaw, A. T.; Gössling, C.; Gostkin, M. I.; Gottardo, C. A.; Goudet, C. R.; Goujdami, D.; Goussiou, A. G.; Govender, N.; Gozani, E.; Graber, L.; Grabowska-Bold, I.; Gradin, P. O. J.; Gramling, J.; Gramstad, E.; Grancagnolo, S.; Gratchev, V.; Gravila, P. M.; Gray, C.; Gray, H. M.; Greenwood, Z. D.; Grefe, C.; Gregersen, K.; Gregor, I. M.; Grenier, P.; Grevtsov, K.; Griffiths, J.; Grillo, A. A.; Grimm, K.; Grinstein, S.; Gris, Ph.; Grivaz, J.-F.; Groh, S.; Gross, E.; Grosse-Knetter, J.; Grossi, G. C.; Grout, Z. J.; Grummer, A.; Guan, L.; Guan, W.; Guenther, J.; Guescini, F.; Guest, D.; Gueta, O.; Gui, B.; Guido, E.; Guillemin, T.; Guindon, S.; Gul, U.; Gumpert, C.; Guo, J.; Guo, W.; Guo, Y.; Gupta, R.; Gupta, S.; Gustavino, G.; Gutelman, B. J.; Gutierrez, P.; Gutierrez Ortiz, N. G.; Gutschow, C.; Guyot, C.; Guzik, M. P.; Gwenlan, C.; Gwilliam, C. B.; Haas, A.; Haber, C.; Hadavand, H. K.; Haddad, N.; Hadef, A.; Hageböck, S.; Hagihara, M.; Hakobyan, H.; Haleem, M.; Haley, J.; Halladjian, G.; Hallewell, G. D.; Hamacher, K.; Hamal, P.; Hamano, K.; Hamilton, A.; Hamity, G. N.; Hamnett, P. G.; Han, L.; Han, S.; Hanagaki, K.; Hanawa, K.; Hance, M.; Haney, B.; Hanke, P.; Hansen, J. B.; Hansen, J. D.; Hansen, M. C.; Hansen, P. H.; Hara, K.; Hard, A. S.; Harenberg, T.; Hariri, F.; Harkusha, S.; Harrison, P. F.; Hartmann, N. M.; Hasegawa, Y.; Hasib, A.; Hassani, S.; Haug, S.; Hauser, R.; Hauswald, L.; Havener, L. B.; Havranek, M.; Hawkes, C. M.; Hawkings, R. J.; Hayakawa, D.; Hayden, D.; Hays, C. P.; Hays, J. M.; Hayward, H. S.; Haywood, S. J.; Head, S. J.; Heck, T.; Hedberg, V.; Heelan, L.; Heer, S.; Heidegger, K. K.; Heim, S.; Heim, T.; Heinemann, B.; Heinrich, J. J.; Heinrich, L.; Heinz, C.; Hejbal, J.; Helary, L.; Held, A.; Hellman, S.; Helsens, C.; Henderson, R. C. W.; Heng, Y.; Henkelmann, S.; Henriques Correia, A. M.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Herbert, G. H.; Herde, H.; Herget, V.; Hernández Jiménez, Y.; Herr, H.; Herten, G.; Hertenberger, R.; Hervas, L.; Herwig, T. C.; Hesketh, G. G.; Hessey, N. P.; Hetherly, J. W.; Higashino, S.; Higón-Rodriguez, E.; Hildebrand, K.; Hill, E.; Hill, J. C.; Hiller, K. H.; Hillier, S. J.; Hils, M.; Hinchliffe, I.; Hirose, M.; Hirschbuehl, D.; Hiti, B.; Hladik, O.; Hoad, X.; Hobbs, J.; Hod, N.; Hodgkinson, M. C.; Hodgson, P.; Hoecker, A.; Hoeferkamp, M. R.; Hoenig, F.; Hohn, D.; Holmes, T. R.; Homann, M.; Honda, S.; Honda, T.; Hong, T. M.; Hooberman, B. H.; Hopkins, W. H.; Horii, Y.; Horton, A. J.; Hostachy, J.-Y.; Hostiuc, A.; Hou, S.; Hoummada, A.; Howarth, J.; Hoya, J.; Hrabovsky, M.; Hrdinka, J.; Hristova, I.; Hrivnac, J.; Hryn'ova, T.; Hrynevich, A.; Hsu, P. J.; Hsu, S.-C.; Hu, Q.; Hu, S.; Huang, Y.; Hubacek, Z.; Hubaut, F.; Huegging, F.; Huffman, T. B.; Hughes, E. W.; Hughes, G.; Huhtinen, M.; Huo, P.; Huseynov, N.; Huston, J.; Huth, J.; Iacobucci, G.; Iakovidis, G.; Ibragimov, I.; Iconomidou-Fayard, L.; Idrissi, Z.; Iengo, P.; Igonkina, O.; Iizawa, T.; Ikegami, Y.; Ikeno, M.; Ilchenko, Y.; Iliadis, D.; Ilic, N.; Introzzi, G.; Ioannou, P.; Iodice, M.; Iordanidou, K.; Ippolito, V.; Isacson, M. F.; Ishijima, N.; Ishino, M.; Ishitsuka, M.; Issever, C.; Istin, S.; Ito, F.; Iturbe Ponce, J. M.; Iuppa, R.; Iwasaki, H.; Izen, J. M.; Izzo, V.; Jabbar, S.; Jackson, P.; Jacobs, R. M.; Jain, V.; Jakobi, K. B.; Jakobs, K.; Jakobsen, S.; Jakoubek, T.; Jamin, D. O.; Jana, D. K.; Jansky, R.; Janssen, J.; Janus, M.; Janus, P. A.; Jarlskog, G.; Javadov, N.; Javůrek, T.; Javurkova, M.; Jeanneau, F.; Jeanty, L.; Jejelava, J.; Jelinskas, A.; Jenni, P.; Jeske, C.; Jézéquel, S.; Ji, H.; Jia, J.; Jiang, H.; Jiang, Y.; Jiang, Z.; Jiggins, S.; Jimenez Pena, J.; Jin, S.; Jinaru, A.; Jinnouchi, O.; Jivan, H.; Johansson, P.; Johns, K. A.; Johnson, C. A.; Johnson, W. J.; Jon-And, K.; Jones, R. W. L.; Jones, S. D.; Jones, S.; Jones, T. J.; Jongmanns, J.; Jorge, P. M.; Jovicevic, J.; Ju, X.; Juste Rozas, A.; Köhler, M. K.; Kaczmarska, A.; Kado, M.; Kagan, H.; Kagan, M.; Kahn, S. J.; Kaji, T.; Kajomovitz, E.; Kalderon, C. W.; Kaluza, A.; Kama, S.; Kamenshchikov, A.; Kanaya, N.; Kanjir, L.; Kantserov, V. A.; Kanzaki, J.; Kaplan, B.; Kaplan, L. S.; Kar, D.; Karakostas, K.; Karastathis, N.; Kareem, M. J.; Karentzos, E.; Karpov, S. N.; Karpova, Z. M.; Karthik, K.; Kartvelishvili, V.; Karyukhin, A. N.; Kasahara, K.; Kashif, L.; Kass, R. D.; Kastanas, A.; Kataoka, Y.; Kato, C.; Katre, A.; Katzy, J.; Kawade, K.; Kawagoe, K.; Kawamoto, T.; Kawamura, G.; Kay, E. F.; Kazanin, V. F.; Keeler, R.; Kehoe, R.; Keller, J. S.; Kellermann, E.; Kempster, J. J.; Kendrick, J.; Keoshkerian, H.; Kepka, O.; Kerševan, B. P.; Kersten, S.; Keyes, R. A.; Khader, M.; Khalil-zada, F.; Khanov, A.; Kharlamov, A. G.; Kharlamova, T.; Khodinov, A.; Khoo, T. 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A.; Scheirich, D.; Schernau, M.; Schiavi, C.; Schier, S.; Schildgen, L. K.; Schillo, C.; Schioppa, M.; Schlenker, S.; Schmidt-Sommerfeld, K. R.; Schmieden, K.; Schmitt, C.; Schmitt, S.; Schmitz, S.; Schnoor, U.; Schoeffel, L.; Schoening, A.; Schoenrock, B. D.; Schopf, E.; Schott, M.; Schouwenberg, J. F. P.; Schovancova, J.; Schramm, S.; Schuh, N.; Schulte, A.; Schultens, M. J.; Schultz-Coulon, H.-C.; Schulz, H.; Schumacher, M.; Schumm, B. A.; Schune, Ph.; Schwartzman, A.; Schwarz, T. A.; Schweiger, H.; Schwemling, Ph.; Schwienhorst, R.; Schwindling, J.; Sciandra, A.; Sciolla, G.; Scornajenghi, M.; Scuri, F.; Scutti, F.; Searcy, J.; Seema, P.; Seidel, S. C.; Seiden, A.; Seixas, J. M.; Sekhniaidze, G.; Sekhon, K.; Sekula, S. J.; Semprini-Cesari, N.; Senkin, S.; Serfon, C.; Serin, L.; Serkin, L.; Sessa, M.; Seuster, R.; Severini, H.; Sfiligoj, T.; Sforza, F.; Sfyrla, A.; Shabalina, E.; Shaikh, N. W.; Shan, L. Y.; Shang, R.; Shank, J. T.; Shapiro, M.; Shatalov, P. B.; Shaw, K.; Shaw, S. M.; Shcherbakova, A.; Shehu, C. Y.; Shen, Y.; Sherafati, N.; Sherwood, P.; Shi, L.; Shimizu, S.; Shimmin, C. O.; Shimojima, M.; Shipsey, I. P. J.; Shirabe, S.; Shiyakova, M.; Shlomi, J.; Shmeleva, A.; Shoaleh Saadi, D.; Shochet, M. J.; Shojaii, S.; Shope, D. R.; Shrestha, S.; Shulga, E.; Shupe, M. A.; Sicho, P.; Sickles, A. M.; Sidebo, P. E.; Sideras Haddad, E.; Sidiropoulou, O.; Sidoti, A.; Siegert, F.; Sijacki, Dj.; Silva, J.; Silverstein, S. B.; Simak, V.; Simic, L.; Simion, S.; Simioni, E.; Simmons, B.; Simon, M.; Sinervo, P.; Sinev, N. B.; Sioli, M.; Siragusa, G.; Siral, I.; Sivoklokov, S. Yu.; Sjölin, J.; Skinner, M. B.; Skubic, P.; Slater, M.; Slavicek, T.; Slawinska, M.; Sliwa, K.; Slovak, R.; Smakhtin, V.; Smart, B. H.; Smiesko, J.; Smirnov, N.; Smirnov, S. Yu.; Smirnov, Y.; Smirnova, L. N.; Smirnova, O.; Smith, J. W.; Smith, M. N. K.; Smith, R. W.; Smizanska, M.; Smolek, K.; Snesarev, A. A.; Snyder, I. M.; Snyder, S.; Sobie, R.; Socher, F.; Soffer, A.; Søgaard, A.; Soh, D. A.; Sokhrannyi, G.; Solans Sanchez, C. A.; Solar, M.; Soldatov, E. Yu.; Soldevila, U.; Solodkov, A. A.; Soloshenko, A.; Solovyanov, O. V.; Solovyev, V.; Sommer, P.; Son, H.; Sopczak, A.; Sosa, D.; Sotiropoulou, C. L.; Soualah, R.; Soukharev, A. M.; South, D.; Sowden, B. C.; Spagnolo, S.; Spalla, M.; Spangenberg, M.; Spanò, F.; Sperlich, D.; Spettel, F.; Spieker, T. M.; Spighi, R.; Spigo, G.; Spiller, L. A.; Spousta, M.; St. Denis, R. D.; Stabile, A.; Stamen, R.; Stamm, S.; Stanecka, E.; Stanek, R. W.; Stanescu, C.; Stanitzki, M. M.; Stapf, B. S.; Stapnes, S.; Starchenko, E. A.; Stark, G. H.; Stark, J.; Stark, S. H.; Staroba, P.; Starovoitov, P.; Stärz, S.; Staszewski, R.; Stegler, M.; Steinberg, P.; Stelzer, B.; Stelzer, H. J.; Stelzer-Chilton, O.; Stenzel, H.; Stewart, G. A.; Stockton, M. C.; Stoebe, M.; Stoicea, G.; Stolte, P.; Stonjek, S.; Stradling, A. R.; Straessner, A.; Stramaglia, M. E.; Strandberg, J.; Strandberg, S.; Strauss, M.; Strizenec, P.; Ströhmer, R.; Strom, D. M.; Stroynowski, R.; Strubig, A.; Stucci, S. A.; Stugu, B.; Styles, N. A.; Su, D.; Su, J.; Suchek, S.; Sugaya, Y.; Suk, M.; Sulin, V. V.; Sultan, DMS; Sultansoy, S.; Sumida, T.; Sun, S.; Sun, X.; Suruliz, K.; Suster, C. J. E.; Sutton, M. R.; Suzuki, S.; Svatos, M.; Swiatlowski, M.; Swift, S. P.; Sykora, I.; Sykora, T.; Ta, D.; Tackmann, K.; Taenzer, J.; Taffard, A.; Tafirout, R.; Tahirovic, E.; Taiblum, N.; Takai, H.; Takashima, R.; Takasugi, E. H.; Takeshita, T.; Takubo, Y.; Talby, M.; Talyshev, A. A.; Tanaka, J.; Tanaka, M.; Tanaka, R.; Tanaka, S.; Tanioka, R.; Tannenwald, B. B.; Tapia Araya, S.; Tapprogge, S.; Tarem, S.; Tartarelli, G. F.; Tas, P.; Tasevsky, M.; Tashiro, T.; Tassi, E.; Tavares Delgado, A.; Tayalati, Y.; Taylor, A. C.; Taylor, A. J.; Taylor, G. N.; Taylor, P. T. E.; Taylor, W.; Teixeira-Dias, P.; Temple, D.; Ten Kate, H.; Teng, P. K.; Teoh, J. J.; Tepel, F.; Terada, S.; Terashi, K.; Terron, J.; Terzo, S.; Testa, M.; Teuscher, R. J.; Theveneaux-Pelzer, T.; Thiele, F.; Thomas, J. P.; Thomas-Wilsker, J.; Thompson, P. D.; Thompson, A. S.; Thomsen, L. A.; Thomson, E.; Tibbetts, M. J.; Ticse Torres, R. E.; Tikhomirov, V. O.; Tikhonov, Yu. A.; Timoshenko, S.; Tipton, P.; Tisserant, S.; Todome, K.; Todorova-Nova, S.; Todt, S.; Tojo, J.; Tokár, S.; Tokushuku, K.; Tolley, E.; Tomlinson, L.; Tomoto, M.; Tompkins, L.; Toms, K.; Tong, B.; Tornambe, P.; Torrence, E.; Torres, H.; Torró Pastor, E.; Toth, J.; Touchard, F.; Tovey, D. R.; Treado, C. J.; Trefzger, T.; Tresoldi, F.; Tricoli, A.; Trigger, I. M.; Trincaz-Duvoid, S.; Tripiana, M. F.; Trischuk, W.; Trocmé, B.; Trofymov, A.; Troncon, C.; Trottier-McDonald, M.; Trovatelli, M.; Truong, L.; Trzebinski, M.; Trzupek, A.; Tsang, K. W.; Tseng, J. C.-L.; Tsiareshka, P. V.; Tsipolitis, G.; Tsirintanis, N.; Tsiskaridze, S.; Tsiskaridze, V.; Tskhadadze, E. G.; Tsui, K. M.; Tsukerman, I. I.; Tsulaia, V.; Tsuno, S.; Tsybychev, D.; Tu, Y.; Tudorache, A.; Tudorache, V.; Tulbure, T. T.; Tuna, A. N.; Tupputi, S. A.; Turchikhin, S.; Turgeman, D.; Turk Cakir, I.; Turra, R.; Tuts, P. M.; Ucchielli, G.; Ueda, I.; Ughetto, M.; Ukegawa, F.; Unal, G.; Undrus, A.; Unel, G.; Ungaro, F. C.; Unno, Y.; Unverdorben, C.; Urban, J.; Urquijo, P.; Urrejola, P.; Usai, G.; Usui, J.; Vacavant, L.; Vacek, V.; Vachon, B.; Vadla, K. O. H.; Vaidya, A.; Valderanis, C.; Valdes Santurio, E.; Valente, M.; Valentinetti, S.; Valero, A.; Valéry, L.; Valkar, S.; Vallier, A.; Valls Ferrer, J. A.; Van Den Wollenberg, W.; van der Graaf, H.; van Gemmeren, P.; Van Nieuwkoop, J.; van Vulpen, I.; van Woerden, M. C.; Vanadia, M.; Vandelli, W.; Vaniachine, A.; Vankov, P.; Vardanyan, G.; Vari, R.; Varnes, E. W.; Varni, C.; Varol, T.; Varouchas, D.; Vartapetian, A.; Varvell, K. E.; Vasquez, J. G.; Vasquez, G. A.; Vazeille, F.; Vazquez Furelos, D.; Vazquez Schroeder, T.; Veatch, J.; Veeraraghavan, V.; Veloce, L. M.; Veloso, F.; Veneziano, S.; Ventura, A.; Venturi, M.; Venturi, N.; Venturini, A.; Vercesi, V.; Verducci, M.; Verkerke, W.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Vermeulen, J. C.; Vetterli, M. C.; Viaux Maira, N.; Viazlo, O.; Vichou, I.; Vickey, T.; Vickey Boeriu, O. E.; Viehhauser, G. H. A.; Viel, S.; Vigani, L.; Villa, M.; Villaplana Perez, M.; Vilucchi, E.; Vincter, M. G.; Vinogradov, V. B.; Vishwakarma, A.; Vittori, C.; Vivarelli, I.; Vlachos, S.; Vogel, M.; Vokac, P.; Volpi, G.; von der Schmitt, H.; von Toerne, E.; Vorobel, V.; Vorobev, K.; Vos, M.; Voss, R.; Vossebeld, J. H.; Vranjes, N.; Vranjes Milosavljevic, M.; Vrba, V.; Vreeswijk, M.; Vuillermet, R.; Vukotic, I.; Wagner, P.; Wagner, W.; Wagner-Kuhr, J.; Wahlberg, H.; Wahrmund, S.; Walder, J.; Walker, R.; Walkowiak, W.; Wallangen, V.; Wang, C.; Wang, C.; Wang, F.; Wang, H.; Wang, H.; Wang, J.; Wang, J.; Wang, Q.; Wang, R.; Wang, S. M.; Wang, T.; Wang, W.; Wang, W.; Wang, Z.; Wanotayaroj, C.; Warburton, A.; Ward, C. P.; Wardrope, D. R.; Washbrook, A.; Watkins, P. M.; Watson, A. T.; Watson, M. F.; Watts, G.; Watts, S.; Waugh, B. M.; Webb, A. F.; Webb, S.; Weber, M. S.; Weber, S. W.; Weber, S. A.; Webster, J. S.; Weidberg, A. R.; Weinert, B.; Weingarten, J.; Weirich, M.; Weiser, C.; Weits, H.; Wells, P. S.; Wenaus, T.; Wengler, T.; Wenig, S.; Wermes, N.; Werner, M. D.; Werner, P.; Wessels, M.; Weston, T. D.; Whalen, K.; Whallon, N. L.; Wharton, A. M.; White, A. S.; White, A.; White, M. J.; White, R.; Whiteson, D.; Whitmore, B. W.; Wickens, F. J.; Wiedenmann, W.; Wielers, M.; Wiglesworth, C.; Wiik-Fuchs, L. A. M.; Wildauer, A.; Wilk, F.; Wilkens, H. G.; Williams, H. H.; Williams, S.; Willis, C.; Willocq, S.; Wilson, J. A.; Wingerter-Seez, I.; Winkels, E.; Winklmeier, F.; Winston, O. J.; Winter, B. T.; Wittgen, M.; Wobisch, M.; Wolf, T. M. H.; Wolff, R.; Wolter, M. W.; Wolters, H.; Wong, V. W. S.; Worm, S. D.; Wosiek, B. K.; Wotschack, J.; Wozniak, K. W.; Wu, M.; Wu, S. L.; Wu, X.; Wu, Y.; Wyatt, T. R.; Wynne, B. M.; Xella, S.; Xi, Z.; Xia, L.; Xu, D.; Xu, L.; Xu, T.; Yabsley, B.; Yacoob, S.; Yamaguchi, D.; Yamaguchi, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Yamamoto, S.; Yamanaka, T.; Yamane, F.; Yamatani, M.; Yamazaki, Y.; Yan, Z.; Yang, H.; Yang, H.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Z.; Yao, W.-M.; Yap, Y. C.; Yasu, Y.; Yatsenko, E.; Yau Wong, K. H.; Ye, J.; Ye, S.; Yeletskikh, I.; Yigitbasi, E.; Yildirim, E.; Yorita, K.; Yoshihara, K.; Young, C.; Young, C. J. S.; Yu, J.; Yu, J.; Yuen, S. P. Y.; Yusuff, I.; Zabinski, B.; Zacharis, G.; Zaidan, R.; Zaitsev, A. M.; Zakharchuk, N.; Zalieckas, J.; Zaman, A.; Zambito, S.; Zanzi, D.; Zeitnitz, C.; Zemaityte, G.; Zemla, A.; Zeng, J. C.; Zeng, Q.; Zenin, O.; Ženiš, T.; Zerwas, D.; Zhang, D.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, G.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, P.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, X.; Zhao, Y.; Zhao, Z.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zhou, B.; Zhou, C.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, N.; Zhu, C. G.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, J.; Zhu, Y.; Zhuang, X.; Zhukov, K.; Zibell, A.; Zieminska, D.; Zimine, N. I.; Zimmermann, C.; Zimmermann, S.; Zinonos, Z.; Zinser, M.; Ziolkowski, M.; Živković, L.; Zobernig, G.; Zoccoli, A.; Zou, R.; zur Nedden, M.; Zwalinski, L.

2018-02-01

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with at least two hadronically decaying tau leptons is presented. The analysis uses a dataset of pp collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb^{-1}, recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. No significant deviation from the expected Standard Model background is observed. Limits are derived in scenarios of (?) pair production and of (?) and (?) production in simplified models where the neutralinos and charginos decay solely via intermediate left-handed staus and tau sneutrinos, and the mass of the \\tilde{τ }_L state is set to be halfway between the masses of the (?) and the (?). Chargino masses up to 630 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level in the scenario of direct production of (?) for a massless (?). Common (?) and (?) masses up to 760 GeV are excluded in the case of production of (?) and (?) assuming a massless (?). Exclusion limits for additional benchmark scenarios with large and small mass-splitting between the (?) and the (?) are also studied by varying the \\tilde{τ }_L mass between the masses of the (?) and the (?).

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE PAGES

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; ...

2016-08-18

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

GSM base stations: short-term effects on well-being.

PubMed

Augner, Christoph; Florian, Matthias; Pauser, Gernot; Oberfeld, Gerd; Hacker, Gerhard W

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of short-term GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) cellular phone base station RF-EMF (radiofrequency electromagnetic fields) exposure on psychological symptoms (good mood, alertness, calmness) as measured by a standardized well-being questionnaire. Fifty-seven participants were selected and randomly assigned to one of three different exposure scenarios. Each of those scenarios subjected participants to five 50-min exposure sessions, with only the first four relevant for the study of psychological symptoms. Three exposure levels were created by shielding devices in a field laboratory, which could be installed or removed during the breaks between sessions such that double-blinded conditions prevailed. The overall median power flux densities were 5.2 microW/m(2) during "low," 153.6 microW/m(2) during "medium," and 2126.8 microW/m(2) during "high" exposure sessions. For scenario HM and MH, the first and third sessions were "low" exposure. The second session was "high" and the fourth was "medium" in scenario HM; and vice versa for scenario MH. Scenario LL had four successive "low" exposure sessions constituting the reference condition. Participants in scenarios HM and MH (high and medium exposure) were significantly calmer during those sessions than participants in scenario LL (low exposure throughout) (P = 0.042). However, no significant differences between exposure scenarios in the "good mood" or "alertness" factors were obtained. We conclude that short-term exposure to GSM base station signals may have an impact on well-being by reducing psychological arousal. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

Reducing the life cycle GHG emissions of microalgal biodiesel through integration with ethanol production system.

PubMed

Maranduba, Henrique Leonardo; Robra, Sabine; Nascimento, Iracema Andrade; da Cruz, Rosenira Serpa; Rodrigues, Luciano Brito; de Almeida Neto, José Adolfo

2015-10-01

Despite environmental benefits of algal-biofuels, the energy-intensive systems for producing microalgae-feedstock may result in high GHG emissions. Trying to overcome energy-costs, this research analyzed the biodiesel production system via dry-route, based on Chlorella vulgaris cultivated in raceways, by comparing the GHG-footprints of diverse microalgae-biodiesel scenarios. These involved: the single system of biomass production (C0); the application of pyrolysis on the residual microalgal biomass (cake) from the oil extraction process (C1); the same as C0, with anaerobic cake co-digested with cattle manure (C2); the same conditions as in C1 and C2, by integrating in both cases (respectively C3 and C4), the microalgae cultivation with an autonomous ethanol distillery. The reduction of GHG emissions in scenarios with no such integration (C1 and C2), compared to CO, was insignificant (0.53% and 4.67%, respectively), whereas in the scenarios with integration with ethanol production system, the improvements were 53.57% for C3 and 63.84% for C4. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future electricity: The challenge of reducing both carbon and water footprint.

PubMed

Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Gerbens-Leenes, P W; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2016-11-01

We estimate the consumptive water footprint (WF) of electricity and heat in 2035 for the four energy scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and a fifth scenario with a larger percentage of solar energy. Counter-intuitively, the 'greenest' IEA scenario (with the smallest carbon footprint) shows the largest WF increase over time: an increase by a factor four over the period 2010-2035. In 2010, electricity from solar, wind, and geothermal contributed 1.8% to the total. The increase of this contribution to 19.6% in IEA's '450 scenario' contributes significantly to the decrease of the WF of the global electricity and heat sector, but is offset by the simultaneous increase of the use of firewood and hydropower. Only substantial growth in the fractions of energy sources with small WFs - solar, wind, and geothermal energy - can contribute to a lowering of the WF of the electricity and heat sector in the coming decades. The fifth energy scenario - adapted from the IEA 450 scenario but based on a quick transition to solar, wind and geothermal energy and a minimum in bio-energy - is the only scenario that shows a strong decline in both carbon footprint (-66%) and consumptive WF (-12%) in 2035 compared to the reference year 2010. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Statistical Bias Correction Tool for Generating Climate Change Scenarios in Indonesia based on CMIP5 Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faqih, A.

2017-03-01

Providing information regarding future climate scenarios is very important in climate change study. The climate scenario can be used as basic information to support adaptation and mitigation studies. In order to deliver future climate scenarios over specific region, baseline and projection data from the outputs of global climate models (GCM) is needed. However, due to its coarse resolution, the data have to be downscaled and bias corrected in order to get scenario data with better spatial resolution that match the characteristics of the observed data. Generating this downscaled data is mostly difficult for scientist who do not have specific background, experience and skill in dealing with the complex data from the GCM outputs. In this regards, it is necessary to develop a tool that can be used to simplify the downscaling processes in order to help scientist, especially in Indonesia, for generating future climate scenario data that can be used for their climate change-related studies. In this paper, we introduce a tool called as “Statistical Bias Correction for Climate Scenarios (SiBiaS)”. The tool is specially designed to facilitate the use of CMIP5 GCM data outputs and process their statistical bias corrections relative to the reference data from observations. It is prepared for supporting capacity building in climate modeling in Indonesia as part of the Indonesia 3rd National Communication (TNC) project activities.

Sampling Simulations for Assessing the Accuracy of U.S. Agricultural Crop Mapping from Remotely Sensed Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwyer, Linnea; Yadav, Kamini; Congalton, Russell G.

2017-04-01

Providing adequate food and water for a growing, global population continues to be a major challenge. Mapping and monitoring crops are useful tools for estimating the extent of crop productivity. GFSAD30 (Global Food Security Analysis Data at 30m) is a program, funded by NASA, that is producing global cropland maps by using field measurements and remote sensing images. This program studies 8 major crop types, and includes information on cropland area/extent, if crops are irrigated or rainfed, and the cropping intensities. Using results from the US and the extensive reference data available, CDL (USDA Crop Data Layer), we will experiment with various sampling simulations to determine optimal sampling for thematic map accuracy assessment. These simulations will include varying the sampling unit, the sampling strategy, and the sample number. Results of these simulations will allow us to recommend assessment approaches to handle different cropping scenarios.

Multi-product biorefineries from lignocelluloses: a pathway to revitalisation of the sugar industry?

PubMed

Farzad, Somayeh; Mandegari, Mohsen Ali; Guo, Miao; Haigh, Kathleen F; Shah, Nilay; Görgens, Johann F

2017-01-01

Driven by a range of sustainability challenges, e.g. climate change, resource depletion and expanding populations, a circular bioeconomy is emerging and expected to evolve progressively in the coming decades. South Africa along with other BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) represents the emerging bioeconomy and contributes significantly to global sugar market. In our research, South Africa is used as a case study to demonstrate the sustainable design for the future biorefineries annexed to existing sugar industry. Detailed techno-economic evaluation and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) were applied to model alternative routes for converting sugarcane residues (bagasse and trash) to selected biofuel and/or biochemicals (ethanol, ethanol and lactic acid, ethanol and furfural, butanol, methanol and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, with co-production of surplus electricity) in an energy self-sufficient biorefinery system. Economic assessment indicated that methanol synthesis with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 16.7% and ethanol-lactic acid co-production (20.5%) met the minimum investment criteria of 15%, while the latter had the lowest sensitivity to market price amongst all the scenarios. LCA results demonstrated that sugarcane cultivation was the most significant contributor to environmental impacts in all of the scenarios, other than the furfural production scenario in which a key step, a biphasic process with tetrahydrofuran solvent, had the most significant contribution. Overall, the thermochemical routes presented environmental advantages over biochemical pathways on most of the impact categories, except for acidification and eutrophication. Of the investigated scenarios, furfural production delivered the inferior environmental performance, while methanol production performed best due to its low reagent consumption. The combined techno-economic and environmental assessments identified the performance-limiting steps in the 2G biorefinery design for sugarcane industry and highlighted the technology development opportunities under circular bioeconomy context.

Modeling Pollinator Community Response to Contrasting Bioenergy Scenarios

PubMed Central

Bennett, Ashley B.; Meehan, Timothy D.; Gratton, Claudio; Isaacs, Rufus

2014-01-01

In the United States, policy initiatives aimed at increasing sources of renewable energy are advancing bioenergy production, especially in the Midwest region, where agricultural landscapes dominate. While policy directives are focused on renewable fuel production, biodiversity and ecosystem services will be impacted by the land-use changes required to meet production targets. Using data from field observations, we developed empirical models for predicting abundance, diversity, and community composition of flower-visiting bees based on land cover. We used these models to explore how bees might respond under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios: annual bioenergy crop production and perennial grassland bioenergy production. In the two scenarios, 600,000 ha of marginal annual crop land or marginal grassland were converted to perennial grassland or annual row crop bioenergy production, respectively. Model projections indicate that expansion of annual bioenergy crop production at this scale will reduce bee abundance by 0 to 71%, and bee diversity by 0 to 28%, depending on location. In contrast, converting annual crops on marginal soil to perennial grasslands could increase bee abundance from 0 to 600% and increase bee diversity between 0 and 53%. Our analysis of bee community composition suggested a similar pattern, with bee communities becoming less diverse under annual bioenergy crop production, whereas bee composition transitioned towards a more diverse community dominated by wild bees under perennial bioenergy crop production. Models, like those employed here, suggest that bioenergy policies have important consequences for pollinator conservation. PMID:25365559

3% Yield Increase (HH3), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 3% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

2% Yield Increase (HH2), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, Maggie R.; Hellwinkel, Chad; Eaton, Laurence

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought tomore » market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 2% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.« less

Assessing Mechanisms of Climate Change Impact on the Upland Forest Water Balance of the Willamette River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D. P.; Conklin, D. R.; Vache, K. B.; Schwartz, C.; Nolin, A. W.; Chang, H.; Watson, E.; John, B.

2016-12-01

Projected changes in air temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure for the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA) over the next century will have significant impacts on the river basin water balance, notably on the amount of evapotranspiration (ET). Mechanisms of impact on ET will be both direct and indirect, but there is limited understanding of their absolute and relative magnitudes. Here we developed a spatially-explicit, daily time-step, modeling infrastructure to simulate the basin-wide water balance that accounts for meteorological influences, as well as effects mediated by changing vegetation cover type, leaf area, and ecophysiology. Three CMIP5 climate scenarios (LowClim, Reference, HighClim) were run for the 2010 to 2100 period. Besides warmer temperatures, the climate scenarios were characterized by wetter winters and increasing vapor pressure deficits. In the mid-range Reference scenario, our landscape simulation model (Envision) projected a continuation of forest cover on the uplands but a 3-fold increase in area burned per year. A decline (12-30%) in basin-wide mean leaf area index (LAI) in forests was projected in all scenarios. The lower LAIs drove a corresponding decline in ET. In a sensitivity test, the effect of increasing CO2 on stomatal conductance induced a further substantial decrease (11-18%) in basin-wide mean ET. The net effect of decreases in ET and increases in winter precipitation was an increase in annual streamflow. These results support the inclusion of changes in land cover, land use, LAI, and ecophysiology in efforts to anticipate impacts of climate change on basin-scale water balances.

Balancing Authority Cooperation Concepts - Intra-Hour Scheduling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunsaker, Matthew; Samaan, Nader; Milligan, Michael

2013-03-29

The overall objective of this study was to understand, on an Interconnection-wide basis, the effects intra-hour scheduling compared to hourly scheduling. Moreover, the study sought to understand how the benefits of intra-hour scheduling would change by altering the input assumptions in different scenarios. This report describes results of three separate scenarios with differing key assumptions and comparing the production costs between hourly scheduling and 10-minute scheduling performance. The different scenarios were chosen to provide insight into how the estimated benefits might change by altering input assumptions. Several key assumptions were different in the three scenarios, however most assumptions were similarmore » and/or unchanged among the scenarios.« less

Biorefinery of microalgae - opportunities and constraints for different production scenarios.

PubMed

Hariskos, Ioanna; Posten, Clemens

2014-06-01

In order to design economically feasible production processes it is necessary, as part of the biorefinery concept, to valorize all constituents of the microalgal biomass. Such an approach requires appropriate biorefinery side-process strategies to be adapted to production of the primary product. These strategies are particularly valid for microalgae, since the composition and amount of residual biomass can vary significantly depending on cell stoichiometry and cultivation techniques. This review investigates opportunities and constraints for biorefinery concepts in production scenarios for four different products from microalgae with different market volumes, including high- and medium-value products, whole cells and biodiesel. Approaches to close material and energy balances, as well as to adapt the biorefinery according to biological potential, process routes, and market needs are presented, which will further contribute to making the biorefinery concept a success. Copyright © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Reuse and recycle--considering the soil below constructions.

PubMed

Suer, Pascal; Wik, Ola; Erlandsson, Martin

2014-07-01

The European Construction Products Regulation provides a life cycle based framework for the environmental assessment of construction products. Harmonised European standards for the assessment of the release of dangerous substances and for declaration of environmental performance are in progress. Risk based limit values for the protection of soil and groundwater below construction works will still bet set nationally. In this paper we review the possibilities to expand the ongoing harmonisation to include risk assessment and life cycle assessment (LCA). Based on reviews of national European limit value models (LMVs) for assessment of release to soil and groundwater, two areas for harmonisation emerge: 1- The toxicological criteria. Toxicological endpoints to protect human health and environment are similar, and data from the same toxicological data sets are used to establish acceptance criteria. 2- The emission part of LMVs. We extracted six generic construction works for granular materials. These encompass the most common choices and span the different release scenarios applied. Harmonised emission models would also facilitate LCA and environmental product declaration (EPD). The immission or transport part of the LVMs is less promising for harmonisation. Locating the acceptance criteria point of compliance close to the construction works is advantageous from many aspects and would facilitate harmonisation of assessments. We have identified two different strategies to include recycling in the assessments: 1- Tiered procedure where assessment and declaration of performance are made for the intended primary use of the product only and renewed assessments are made whenever the construction works are demolished and the product is recovered. 2- Scenario based procedure where future recycling scenarios, into new products and construction works, are forecasted. In this case the initial assessment and declaration of environmental performance of a construction product is performed both for the intended primary use of the product and for the recycling scenarios. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Etsushi; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2014-09-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socioeconomic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above preindustrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high-fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full postprocess combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high-fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required; however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise, a conflict of land use with food production is inevitable.

Restoring monarch butterfly habitat in the Midwestern US: 'All hands on deck'

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Rohweder, Jason; Diffendorfer, James E.; Drum, Ryan G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Black, Scott; Caldwell, Iris; Cotter, Donita; Drobney, Pauline; Jackson, Laura L.; Gale, Michael; Helmers, Doug; Hilburger, Steven B.; Howard, Elizabeth; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Brice X.; Taylor, Orley R.; Ward, Patrick; Weltzin, Jake F.; Wiederholt, Ruscena

2017-01-01

The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus plexippus) has declined by >80% within the last two decades. One possible cause of this decline is the loss of ≥1.3 billion stems of milkweed (Asclepias spp.), which monarchs require for reproduction. In an effort to restore monarchs to a population goal established by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and adopted by Mexico, Canada, and the US, we developed scenarios for amending the Midwestern US landscape with milkweed. Scenarios for milkweed restoration were developed for protected area grasslands, Conservation Reserve Program land, powerline, rail and roadside rights of way, urban/suburban lands, and land in agricultural production. Agricultural land was further divided into productive and marginal cropland. We elicited expert opinion as to the biological potential (in stems per acre) for lands in these individual sectors to support milkweed restoration and the likely adoption (probability) of management practices necessary for affecting restoration. Sixteen of 218 scenarios we developed for restoring milkweed to the Midwestern US were at levels (>1.3 billion new stems) necessary to reach the monarch population goal. One of these scenarios would convert all marginal agriculture to conserved status. The other 15 scenarios converted half of marginal agriculture (730 million stems), with remaining stems contributed by other societal sectors. Scenarios without substantive agricultural participation were insufficient for attaining the population goal. Agricultural lands are essential to reaching restoration targets because they occupy 77% of all potential monarch habitat. Barring fundamental changes to policy, innovative application of economic tools such as habitat exchanges may provide sufficient resources to tip the balance of the agro-ecological landscape toward a setting conducive to both robust agricultural production and reduced imperilment of the migratory monarch butterfly.

Restoring monarch butterfly habitat in the Midwestern US: ‘all hands on deck’

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; López-Hoffman, Laura; Rohweder, Jason; Diffendorfer, Jay; Drum, Ryan; Semmens, Darius; Black, Scott; Caldwell, Iris; Cotter, Donita; Drobney, Pauline; Jackson, Laura L.; Gale, Michael; Helmers, Doug; Hilburger, Steve; Howard, Elizabeth; Oberhauser, Karen; Pleasants, John; Semmens, Brice; Taylor, Orley; Ward, Patrick; Weltzin, Jake F.; Wiederholt, Ruscena

2017-07-01

The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus plexippus) has declined by >80% within the last two decades. One possible cause of this decline is the loss of ≥1.3 billion stems of milkweed (Asclepias spp.), which monarchs require for reproduction. In an effort to restore monarchs to a population goal established by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and adopted by Mexico, Canada, and the US, we developed scenarios for amending the Midwestern US landscape with milkweed. Scenarios for milkweed restoration were developed for protected area grasslands, Conservation Reserve Program land, powerline, rail and roadside rights of way, urban/suburban lands, and land in agricultural production. Agricultural land was further divided into productive and marginal cropland. We elicited expert opinion as to the biological potential (in stems per acre) for lands in these individual sectors to support milkweed restoration and the likely adoption (probability) of management practices necessary for affecting restoration. Sixteen of 218 scenarios we developed for restoring milkweed to the Midwestern US were at levels (>1.3 billion new stems) necessary to reach the monarch population goal. One of these scenarios would convert all marginal agriculture to conserved status. The other 15 scenarios converted half of marginal agriculture (730 million stems), with remaining stems contributed by other societal sectors. Scenarios without substantive agricultural participation were insufficient for attaining the population goal. Agricultural lands are essential to reaching restoration targets because they occupy 77% of all potential monarch habitat. Barring fundamental changes to policy, innovative application of economic tools such as habitat exchanges may provide sufficient resources to tip the balance of the agro-ecological landscape toward a setting conducive to both robust agricultural production and reduced imperilment of the migratory monarch butterfly.

An evaluation and comparison of conservation guidelines for an at-risk migratory songbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNeil, Darin J.; Aldinger, Kyle R.; Bakermans, Marja H.; Lehman, Justin A.; Tisdale, Anna C.; Jones, John A.; Wood, Petra B.; Buehler, David A.; Smalling, Curtis G.; Siefferman, Lynn; Larkin, Jeffrey L.

2017-01-01

For at-risk wildlife species, it is important to consider conservation within the process of adaptive management. Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) are Neotropical migratory songbirds that are experiencing long-term population declines due in part to the loss of early-successional nesting habitat. Recently-developed Golden-winged Warbler habitat management guidelines are being implemented by USDA: Natural Resource Conservation Service (2014) and its partners through the Working Lands For Wildlife (WLFW) program. During 2012–2014, we studied the nesting ecology of Golden-winged Warblers in managed habitats of the eastern US that conformed to WLFW conservation practices. We evaluated five NRCS “management scenarios” with respect to nesting success and attainment of recommended nest site vegetation conditions outlined in the Golden-winged Warbler breeding habitat guidelines. Using estimates of territory density, pairing rate, nest survival, and clutch size, we also estimated fledgling productivity (number of fledglings/ha) for each management scenario. In general, Golden-winged Warbler nest survival declined as each breeding season advanced, but nest survival was similar across management scenarios. Within each management scenario, vegetation variables had little influence on nest survival. Still, percent Rubus cover and density of >2 m tall shrubs were relevant in some management scenarios. All five management scenarios rarely attained recommended levels of nest site vegetation conditions for Golden-winged, yet nest survival was high. Fledgling productivity estimates for each management scenario ranged from 2.1 to 8.6 fledglings/10 hectares. Our results indicate that targeted habitat management for Golden-winged Warblers using a variety of management techniques on private lands has the capability to yield high nest survival and fledgling productivity, and thus have the potential to contribute to the species recovery.

Cosmological singularity resolution from quantum gravity: The emergent-bouncing universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alesci, Emanuele; Botta, Gioele; Cianfrani, Francesco; Liberati, Stefano

2017-08-01

Alternative scenarios to the big bang singularity have been subject of intense research for several decades by now. Most popular in this sense have been frameworks were such singularity is replaced by a bounce around some minimal cosmological volume or by some early quantum phase. This latter scenario was devised a long time ago and referred as an "emergent universe" (in the sense that our universe emerged from a constant volume quantum phase). We show here that within an improved framework of canonical quantum gravity (the so-called quantum reduced loop gravity) the Friedmann equations for cosmology are modified in such a way to replace the big bang singularity with a short bounce preceded by a metastable quantum phase in which the volume of the universe oscillates between a series of local maxima and minima. We call this hybrid scenario an "emergent-bouncing universe" since after a pure oscillating quantum phase the classical Friedmann spacetime emerges. Perspective developments and possible tests of this scenario are discussed in the end.

Co-producing simulation models to inform resource management: a case study from southwest South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Frid, Leonardo; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Simulation models can represent complexities of the real world and serve as virtual laboratories for asking “what if…?” questions about how systems might respond to different scenarios. However, simulation models have limited relevance to real-world applications when designed without input from people who could use the simulated scenarios to inform their decisions. Here, we report on a state-and-transition simulation model of vegetation dynamics that was coupled to a scenario planning process and co-produced by researchers, resource managers, local subject-matter experts, and climate change adaptation specialists to explore potential effects of climate scenarios and management alternatives on key resources in southwest South Dakota. Input from management partners and local experts was critical for representing key vegetation types, bison and cattle grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate change and management on rangeland productivity and composition given the paucity of published data on many of these topics. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between grazer density and vegetation composition, as well as between the short- and long-term costs of invasive species management. It also pointed to impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. More broadly, a scenario-based approach to model co-production bracketed the uncertainty associated with climate change and ensured that the most important (and impactful) uncertainties related to resource management were addressed. This cooperative study demonstrates six opportunities for scientists to engage users throughout the modeling process to improve model utility and relevance: (1) identifying focal dynamics and variables, (2) developing conceptual model(s), (3) parameterizing the simulation, (4) identifying relevant climate scenarios and management alternatives, (5) evaluating and refining the simulation, and (6) interpreting the results. We also reflect on lessons learned and offer several recommendations for future co-production efforts, with the aim of advancing the pursuit of usable science.

Analysis of intra-country virtual water trade strategy to alleviate water scarcity in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, M.; Yang, H.; Mousavi, J.; Schulin, R.; Binder, C. R.; Abbaspour, K. C.

2010-08-01

Increasing water scarcity has posed a major constraint to sustain food production in many parts of the world. To study the situation at the regional level, we took Iran as an example and analyzed how an intra-country "virtual water trade strategy" (VWTS) may help improve cereal production as well as alleviate the water scarcity problem. This strategy calls, in part, for the adjustment of the structure of cropping pattern (ASCP) and interregional food trade where crop yield and crop water productivity as well as local economic and social conditions are taken into account. We constructed a systematic framework to assess ASCP at the provincial level under various driving forces and constraints. A mixed-integer, multi-objective, linear optimization model was developed and solved by linear programming. Data from 1990-2004 were used to account for yearly fluctuations of water availability and food production. Five scenarios were designed aimed at maximizing the national cereal production while meeting certain levels of wheat self-sufficiency under various water and land constraints in individual provinces. The results show that under the baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of the existing water use and food policy at the national level, some ASCP scenarios could produce more wheat with less water. Based on different scenarios in ASCP, we calculated that 31% to 100% of the total wheat shortage in the deficit provinces could be supplied by the wheat surplus provinces. As a result, wheat deficit provinces would receive 3.5 billion m3 to 5.5 billion m3 of virtual water by importing wheat from surplus provinces.

Analysis of intra-country virtual water trade strategy to alleviate water scarcity in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, M.; Yang, H.; Mousavi, J.; Schulin, R.; Binder, C. R.; Abbaspour, K. C.

2010-04-01

Increasing water scarcity has posed a major constraint to sustain food production in many parts of the world. To study the situation at the regional level, we took Iran as an example and analyzed how an intra-country "virtual water trade strategy" (VWTS) may help improve cereal production as well as alleviate the water scarcity problem. This strategy calls, in part, for the adjustment of the structure of cropping pattern (ASCP) and interregional food trade where crop yield and crop water productivity as well as local economic and social conditions are taken into account. We constructed a systematic framework to assess ASCP at the provincial level under various driving forces and constraints. A mixed-integer, multi-objective, linear optimization model was developed and solved by linear programming. Data from 1990-2004 were used to account for yearly fluctuations of water availability and food production. Five scenarios were designed aimed at maximizing the national cereal production while meeting certain levels of wheat self-sufficiency under various water and land constraints in individual provinces. The results show that under the baseline scenario, which assumes a continuation of the existing water use and food policy at the national level, some ASCP scenarios could produce more wheat with less water. Based on different scenarios in ASCP, we calculated that 31% to 100% of the total wheat shortage in the deficit provinces could be supplied by the wheat surplus provinces. As a result, wheat deficit provinces would receive 3.5 billion m3 to 5.5 billion m3 of virtual water by importing wheat from surplus provinces.

Finding the right compromise between productivity and environmental efficiency on high input tropical dairy farms: a case study.

PubMed

Berre, David; Blancard, Stéphane; Boussemart, Jean-Philippe; Leleu, Hervé; Tillard, Emmanuel

2014-12-15

This study focused on the trade-off between milk production and its environmental impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and nitrogen surplus in a high input tropical system. We first identified the objectives of the three main stakeholders in the dairy sector (farmers, a milk cooperative and environmentalists). The main aim of the farmers and cooperative's scenarios was to increase milk production without additional environmental deterioration but with the possibility of increasing the inputs for the cooperative. The environmentalist's objective was to reduce environmental deterioration. Second, we designed a sustainable intensification scenario combining maximization of milk production and minimization of environmental impacts. Third, the objectives for reducing the eco-inefficiency of dairy systems in Reunion Island were incorporated in a framework for activity analysis, which was used to model a technological approach with desirable and undesirable outputs. Of the four scenarios, the sustainable intensification scenario produced the best results, with a potential decrease of 238 g CO2-e per liter of milk (i.e. a reduction of 13.93% compared to the current level) and a potential 7.72 L increase in milk produced for each kg of nitrogen surplus (i.e. an increase of 16.45% compared to the current level). These results were based on the best practices observed in Reunion Island and optimized manure management, crop-livestock interactions, and production processes. Our results also showed that frontier efficiency analysis can shed new light on the challenge of developing sustainable intensification in high input tropical dairy systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Choosing relatives for DNA identification of missing persons.

PubMed

Ge, Jianye; Budowle, Bruce; Chakraborty, Ranajit

2011-01-01

DNA-based analysis is integral to missing person identification cases. When direct references are not available, indirect relative references can be used to identify missing persons by kinship analysis. Generally, more reference relatives render greater accuracy of identification. However, it is costly to type multiple references. Thus, at times, decisions may need to be made on which relatives to type. In this study, pedigrees for 37 common reference scenarios with 13 CODIS STRs were simulated to rank the information content of different combinations of relatives. The results confirm that first-order relatives (parents and fullsibs) are the most preferred relatives to identify missing persons; fullsibs are also informative. Less genetic dependence between references provides a higher on average likelihood ratio. Distant relatives may not be helpful solely by autosomal markers. But lineage-based Y chromosome and mitochondrial DNA markers can increase the likelihood ratio or serve as filters to exclude putative relationships. © 2010 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Biomethane production system: Energetic analysis of various scenarios.

PubMed

Wu, Bin; Zhang, Xiangping; Bao, Di; Xu, Yajing; Zhang, Suojiang; Deng, Liyuan

2016-04-01

The energy consumption models of biomethane production system were established, which are more rigorous and universal than the empirical data reported by previous biomethane system energetic assessment work. The energy efficiencies of different scenarios considering factors such as two digestion modes, two heating modes of digester, with or without heat exchange between slurry and feedstock, and four crude biogas upgrading technologies were evaluated. Results showed the scenario employing thermophilic digestion and high pressure water scrubbing technology, with heat exchange between feedstock and slurry, and heat demand of digester supplied by the energy source outside the system has the highest energy efficiency (46.5%) and lowest energy consumption (13.46 MJth/Nm(3) CH4), while scenario employing mesophilic digestion and pressure swing adsorption technology, without heat exchange and heat demand of digester supplied by combusting the biogas produced inside the system has the lowest energy efficiency (15.8%) and highest energy consumption (34.90 MJth/Nm(3) CH4). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response surface methodology assisted biodiesel production from waste cooking oil using encapsulated mixed enzyme.

PubMed

Razack, Sirajunnisa Abdul; Duraiarasan, Surendhiran

2016-01-01

In the recent scenario, consumption of petroleum fuels has increased to greater height which has led to deforestation and decline in fossil fuels. In order to tackle the perilous situation, alternative fuel has to be generated. Biofuels play a vital role in substituting the diesel fuels as they are renewable and ecofriendly. Biodiesel, often referred to as green fuel, could be a potential replacement as it could be synthesized from varied substrates, advantageous being the microalgae in several ways. The present investigation was dealt with the interesterification of waste cooking oil using immobilised lipase from mixed cultures for biodiesel production. In order to standardize the production for a scale up process, the parameters necessary for interesterification had been optimized using the statistical tool, Central Composite Design - Response Surface Methodology. The optimal conditions required to generate biodiesel were 2 g enzyme load, 1:12 oil to methyl acetate ratio, 60 h reaction time and 35 °C temperature, yielding a maximum of 93.61% biodiesel. The immobilised lipase beads remain stable without any changes in their function and structure even after 20 cycles which made this study, less cost intensive. In conclusion, the study revealed that the cooking oil, a residue of many dining centers, left as waste product, can be used as a potential raw material for the production of ecofriendly and cost effective biofuel, the biodiesel. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential for Jobs and Economic Development from Offshore Wind in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tegen, Suzanne

In California's future scenarios, energy demand increases with population growth and productivity. Decision-makers will have to make choices about which energy resources to utilize, and offshore wind offers one option for carbon-free electricity with the potential for increased local jobs. This presentation discusses results from an NREL report, Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios. Presenter Suzanne Tegen describes the Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model and its results for two offshore wind scenarios in California. She discusses different assumptions and how they affect the scenarios.

Using the scenario method in the context of health and health care--a scoping review.

PubMed

Vollmar, Horst Christian; Ostermann, Thomas; Redaèlli, Marcus

2015-10-16

The scenario technique is a method for future research and for strategic planning. Today, it includes both qualitative and quantitative elements. The aims of this scoping review are to give an overview of the application of the scenario method in the fields of health care and to make suggestions for better reporting in future scenario projects. Between January 2013 and October 2013 we conducted a systematic search in the databases Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Eric, The Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cinahl since inception for the term 'scenario(s)' in combination with other terms, e.g. method, model, and technique. Our search was not restricted by date or language. In addition, we screened the reference lists of the included articles. A total of 576 bibliographical records were screened. After removing duplicates and three rounds of screening, 41 articles covering 38 different scenario projects were included for the final analysis. Nine of the included articles addressed disease related issues, led by mental health and dementia (n = 4), and followed by cancer (n = 3). Five scenario projects focused on public health issues at an organizational level and five focused on the labor market for different health care professionals. In addition, four projects dealt with health care 'in general', four with the field of biotechnology and personalized medicine, and additional four with other technology developments. Some of the scenario projects suffered from poor reporting of methodological aspects. Despite its potential, use of the scenario method seems to be published rarely in comparison to other methods such as the Delphi-technique, at least in the field of health care. This might be due to the complexity of the methodological approach. Individual project methods and activities vary widely and are poorly reported. Improved criteria are required for reporting of scenario project methods. With improved standards and greater transparency, the scenario method will be a good tool for scientific health care planning and strategic decision-making in public health.

Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nassar, Nedal T.; Wilburn, David R.; Goonan, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

The United States has and will likely continue to obtain an increasing share of its electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, especially under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The need for additional solar PV modules and wind turbines will, among other things, result in greater demand for a number of minor metals that are produced mainly or only as byproducts. In this analysis, the quantities of 11 byproduct metals (Ag, Cd, Te, In, Ga, Se, Ge, Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb) required for wind turbines with rare-earth permanent magnets and four solar PV technologies are assessed through the year 2040. Three key uncertainties (electricity generation capacities, technology market shares, and material intensities) are varied to develop 42 scenarios for each byproduct metal. The results indicate that byproduct metal requirements vary significantly across technologies, scenarios, and over time. In certain scenarios, the requirements are projected to become a significant portion of current primary production. This is especially the case for Te, Ge, Dy, In, and Tb under the more aggressive scenarios of increasing market share and conservative material intensities. Te and Dy are, perhaps, of most concern given their substitution limitations. In certain years, the differences in byproduct metal requirements between the technology market share and material intensity scenarios are greater than those between the various CPP and No CPP scenarios. Cumulatively across years 2016–2040, the various CPP scenarios are estimated to require 15–43% more byproduct metals than the No CPP scenario depending on the specific byproduct metal and scenario. Increasing primary production via enhanced recovery rates of the byproduct metals during the beneficiation and enrichment operations, improving end-of-life recycling rates, and developing substitutes are important strategies that may help meet the increased demand for these byproduct metals.

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling

PubMed Central

Reilly, Michael; Willenbockel, Dirk

2010-01-01

Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address. PMID:20713402

Life cycle assessment of wood wastes: A case study of ephemeral architecture.

PubMed

Rivela, Beatriz; Moreira, María Teresa; Muñoz, Iván; Rieradevall, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

2006-03-15

One of the most commonly used elements in ephemeral architecture is a particleboard panel. These types of wood products are produced from wood wastes and they are used in temporary constructions such as trade fairs. Once the event is over, they are usually disposed into landfills. This paper intends to assess the environmental effects related to the use of these wood wastes in the end-of-life stage. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of two scenarios was performed, considering the recycling of wood waste for particleboard manufacture and energy generation from non-renewable resources (Scenario 1) versus the production of energy from the combustion of wood waste and particleboard manufacture with conventional wooden resources (Scenario 2). A sensitive analysis was carried out taking into account the influence of the percentage of recycled material and the emissions data from wood combustion. According to Ecoindicator 99 methodology, Damage to Human Health and Ecosystem Quality are more significant in Scenario 2 whereas Scenario 1 presents the largest contribution to Damage to Resources. Between the two proposed alternatives, the recycling of wood waste for particleboard manufacture seems to be more favorable under an environmental perspective.

Integrating manufacturing softwares for intelligent planning execution: a CIIMPLEX perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Bei Tseng B.; Tolone, William J.; Wilhelm, Robert G.; Hegedus, M.; Fesko, J.; Finin, T.; Peng, Yun; Jones, Chris H.; Long, Junshen; Matthews, Mike; Mayfield, J.; Shimp, J.; Su, S.

1997-01-01

Recent developments have made it possible to interoperate complex business applications at much lower costs. Application interoperation, along with business process re- engineering can result in significant savings by eliminating work created by disconnected business processes due to isolated business applications. However, we believe much greater productivity benefits can be achieved by facilitating timely decision-making, utilizing information from multiple enterprise perspectives. The CIIMPLEX enterprise integration architecture is designed to enable such productivity gains by helping people to carry out integrated enterprise scenarios. An enterprise scenario is triggered typically by some external event. The goal of an enterprise scenario is to make the right decisions considering the full context of the problem. Enterprise scenarios are difficult for people to carry out because of the interdependencies among various actions. One can easily be overwhelmed by the large amount of information. We propose the use of software agents to help gathering relevant information and present them in the appropriate context of an enterprise scenario. The CIIMPLEX enterprise integration architecture is based on the FAIME methodology for application interoperation and plug-and-play. It also explores the use of software agents in application plug-and- play.

Calculation of greenhouse gas emissions of jatropha oil and jatropha biodiesel as alternative fuels for electricity production in Côte d'Ivoire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atta, Pascal Atta; N'guessan, Yao; Morin, Celine; Voirol, Anne Jaecker; Descombes, Georges

2017-02-01

The electricity in Côte d'Ivoire is mainly produced from fossil energy sources. This causes damages on environment due to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The aim of this paper is to calculate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of jatropha oil and jatropha biodiesel as alternative fuels for electricity production in Côte d'Ivoire by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. The functional unit in this LCA is defined as 1 kWh of electricity produced by the combustion of jatropha oil or jatropha biodiesel in the engine of a generator. Two scenarios, called short chain and long chain, were examined in this LCA. The results show that 0.132 kg CO2 equivalent is emitted for the scenario 1 with jatropha oil as an alternative fuel against 0.6376 kg CO2 equivalent for the scenario 2 with jatropha biodiesel as an alternative fuel. An 87 % reduction of kg CO2 equivalent is observed in scenario 1 and a 37 % reduction of kg CO2 equivalent is observed in the scenario 2, when compared with a Diesel fuel.

Search for dark matter and supersymmetry in the vector boson fusion topology in proton-proton collisions at CMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Celik, A.; Hernandez, A. M. C.; CMS Collaboration

2017-07-01

A search for pair production of dark matter candidates and supersymmetry (SUSY) production with two jets in vector-boson fusion (VBF) topology is presented using data collected by the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector in proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Final states with no leptons are expected in pair production of dark matter particles or scalar quarks in SUSY compressed mass-spectra scenarios. Final states with low-energy leptons are expected in the production of charginos and neutralinos in SUSY compressed mass-spectra scenarios. Results for both zero and two lepton final states at 8 TeV are presented with brief prospects at 13 TeV.

Search for dark matter and supersymmetry in the vector boson fusion topology in proton-proton collisions at CMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Celik, A.; Hernandez, A. M.C.

A search for pair production of dark matter candidates and supersymmetry (SUSY) production with two jets in vector-boson fusion (VBF) topology is presented using data collected by the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector in proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Final states with no leptons are expected in pair production of dark matter particles or scalar quarks in SUSY compressed mass-spectra scenarios. Final states with low-energy leptons are expected in the production of charginos and neutralinos in SUSY compressed mass-spectra scenarios. Results for both zero and two lepton final states at 8 TeV are presented with brief prospectsmore » at 13 TeV.« less

Search for dark matter and supersymmetry in the vector boson fusion topology in proton-proton collisions at CMS

DOE PAGES

Celik, A.; Hernandez, A. M.C.

2017-07-01

A search for pair production of dark matter candidates and supersymmetry (SUSY) production with two jets in vector-boson fusion (VBF) topology is presented using data collected by the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector in proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Final states with no leptons are expected in pair production of dark matter particles or scalar quarks in SUSY compressed mass-spectra scenarios. Final states with low-energy leptons are expected in the production of charginos and neutralinos in SUSY compressed mass-spectra scenarios. Results for both zero and two lepton final states at 8 TeV are presented with brief prospectsmore » at 13 TeV.« less

Cost-effectiveness of Lung Cancer Screening in Canada.

PubMed

Goffin, John R; Flanagan, William M; Miller, Anthony B; Fitzgerald, Natalie R; Memon, Saima; Wolfson, Michael C; Evans, William K

2015-09-01

The US National Lung Screening Trial supports screening for lung cancer among smokers using low-dose computed tomographic (LDCT) scans. The cost-effectiveness of screening in a publically funded health care system remains a concern. To assess the cost-effectiveness of LDCT scan screening for lung cancer within the Canadian health care system. The Cancer Risk Management Model (CRMM) simulated individual lives within the Canadian population from 2014 to 2034, incorporating cancer risk, disease management, outcome, and cost data. Smokers and former smokers eligible for lung cancer screening (30 pack-year smoking history, ages 55-74 years, for the reference scenario) were modeled, and performance parameters were calibrated to the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST). The reference screening scenario assumes annual scans to age 75 years, 60% participation by 10 years, 70% adherence to screening, and unchanged smoking rates. The CRMM outputs are aggregated, and costs (2008 Canadian dollars) and life-years are discounted 3% annually. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Compared with no screening, the reference scenario saved 51,000 quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of CaD $52,000/QALY. If smoking history is modeled for 20 or 40 pack-years, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of CaD $62,000 and CaD $43,000/QALY, respectively, were generated. Changes in participation rates altered life years saved but not the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, while the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is sensitive to changes in adherence. An adjunct smoking cessation program improving the quit rate by 22.5% improves the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to CaD $24,000/QALY. Lung cancer screening with LDCT appears cost-effective in the publicly funded Canadian health care system. An adjunct smoking cessation program has the potential to improve outcomes.

Experimental investigations of weak definite and weak indefinite noun phrases

PubMed Central

Klein, Natalie M.; Gegg-Harrison, Whitney M.; Carlson, Greg N.; Tanenhaus, Michael K.

2013-01-01

Definite noun phrases typically refer to entities that are uniquely identifiable in the speaker and addressee’s common ground. Some definite noun phrases (e.g. the hospital in Mary had to go the hospital and John did too) seem to violate this uniqueness constraint. We report six experiments that were motivated by the hypothesis that these “weak definite” interpretations arise in “incorporated” constructions. Experiments 1-3 compared nouns that seem to allow for a weak definite interpretation (e.g. hospital, bank, bus, radio) with those that do not (e.g. farm, concert, car, book). Experiments 1 and 2 used an instruction-following task and picture-judgment task, respectively, to demonstrate that a weak definite need not uniquely refer. In Experiment 3 participants imagined scenarios described by sentences such as The Federal Express driver had to go to the hospital/farm. The imagined scenarios following weak definite noun phrases were more likely to include conventional activities associated with the object, whereas following regular nouns, participants were more likely to imagine scenarios that included typical activities associated with the subject; similar effects were observed with weak indefinites. Experiment 4 found that object-related activities were reduced when the same subject and object were used with a verb that does not license weak definite interpretations. In Experiment 5, a science fiction story introduced an artificial lexicon for novel concepts. Novel nouns that shared conceptual properties with English weak definite nouns were more likely to allow weak reference in a judgment task. Experiment 6 demonstrated that familiarity for definite articles and anti- familiarity for indefinite articles applies to the activity associated with the noun, consistent with predictions made by the incorporation analysis. PMID:23685208

Impact of a product-specific reference standard for the measurement of a PEGylated rFVIII activity: the Swiss Multicentre Field Study.

PubMed

Bulla, O; Poncet, A; Alberio, L; Asmis, L M; Gähler, A; Graf, L; Nagler, M; Studt, J-D; Tsakiris, D A; Fontana, P

2017-07-01

Measuring factor VIII (FVIII) activity can be challenging when it has been modified, such as when FVIII is pegylated to increase its circulating half-life. Use of a product-specific reference standard may help avoid this issue. Evaluate the impact of using a product-specific reference standard for measuring the FVIII activity of BAX 855 - a pegylated FVIII - in eight of Switzerland's main laboratories. Factor VIII-deficient plasma, spiked with five different concentrations of BAX 855, plus a control FVIII sample, was sent to the participating laboratories. They measured FVIII activity by using either with a one-stage (OSA) or the chromogenic assay (CA) against their local or a product-specific reference standard. When using a local reference standard, there was an overestimation of BAX 855 activity compared to the target concentrations, both with the OSA and CA. The use of a product-specific reference standard reduced this effect: mean recovery ranged from 127.7% to 213.5% using the OSA with local reference standards, compared to 110% to 183.8% with a product-specific reference standard, and from 146.3% to 182.4% using the CA with local reference standards compared to 72.7% to 103.7% with a product-specific reference standard. In this in vitro study, the type of reference standard had a major impact on the measurement of BAX 855 activity. Evaluation was more accurate and precise when using a product-specific reference standard. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

2012-01-01

The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two species were in the least risk category, while 20 species were in the highest risk category. The assessment showed that species respond independently to predicted climate change, suggesting that current plant assemblages may disassemble under predicted climate change scenarios. This report presents the results for each species in tables (Appendix A) and maps (14 for each species) in Appendix B.

The Effects of Ecoregion Dynamics on Agroregions for Permanent Crops in the Continental US Under Future Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maddalena, D. M.; L'Heureux, J.; Hoffman, F. M.

2017-12-01

Fruit and Tree Nut production in the US averaged 14% of total annual production, or roughly $28 billion in total revenue for the most recent 5 year period (2011 - 2015). The success of these crops is highly dependent on environmental conditions. Cold snaps before winter dormancy, early frosts in spring, and lack of sufficient chilling hours can reduce productivity, inflict wood damage, and lead to economic loss. Climate change can increase the likelihood of these threats and may have long-term implications for the areas where these crops are grown due to the migration of ecoregions as climate patters shift. We delineate ecoregions using multi-attribute spatio-temporal clustering and calculate chilling unit accumulation under past, present, and future climate scenarios using measured and modeled data. These results are then compared to current agroregions in the US to calculate risk dynamics, potential economic loss, and to map future agroregion scenarios. Our results offer considerations for food system sustainability under a shifting climate.

Biorefineries based on coffee cut-stems and sugarcane bagasse: furan-based compounds and alkanes as interesting products.

PubMed

Aristizábal M, Valentina; Gómez P, Álvaro; Cardona A, Carlos A

2015-11-01

This work presents a techno-economic and environmental assessment for a biorefinery based on sugarcane bagasse (SCB), and coffee cut-stems (CCS). Five scenarios were evaluated at different levels, conversion pathways, feedstock distribution, and technologies to produce ethanol, octane, nonane, furfural, and hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF). These scenarios were compared between each other according to raw material, economic, and environmental characteristics. A single objective function combining the Net Present Value and the Potential Environmental Impact was used through the Analytic Hierarchy Process approach to understand and select the best configurations for SCB and CCS cases. The results showed that the configuration with the best economic and environmental performance for SCB and CCS is the one that considers ethanol, furfural, and octane production (scenario 1). The global economic margin was 62.3% and 61.6% for SCB and CCS respectively. The results have shown the potential of these types of biomass to produce fuels and platform products. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The space station assembly phase: Flight telerobotic servicer feasibility. Volume 2: Methodology and case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeffrey H.; Gyamfi, Max A.; Volkmer, Kent; Zimmerman, Wayne F.

1987-01-01

A methodology is described for examining the feasibility of a Flight Telerobotic Servicer (FTS) using two assembly scenarios, defined at the EVA task level, for the 30 shuttle flights (beginning with MB-1) over a four-year period. Performing all EVA tasks by crew only is compared to a scenario in which crew EVA is augmented by FTS. A reference FTS concept is used as a technology baseline and life-cycle cost analysis is performed to highlight cost tradeoffs. The methodology, procedure, and data used to complete the analysis are documented in detail.

Budgetary Impact of Telotristat Ethyl, a Novel Treatment for Patients with Carcinoid Syndrome Diarrhea: A US Health Plan Perspective.

PubMed

Joish, Vijay N; Frech, Feride; Lapuerta, Pablo

2017-12-01

Telotristat ethyl (TE) was recently approved for carcinoid syndrome diarrhea (CSD) in patients not adequately controlled with somatostatin analog long-acting release (SSA LAR) therapy alone. A budget impact model was developed to determine the short-term affordability of reimbursing TE in a US health plan. A budget impact model compared health care costs when CSD is managed per current treatment patterns (SSA LAR, reference drug scenario) versus when TE is incorporated in the treatment algorithm (SSA LAR + TE, new drug scenario). Prevalence of CSD, proportion of patients not adequately controlled on SSA LAR, monthly treatment costs (pharmacy and medical), and treatment efficacy were derived from the literature. In the reference drug scenario, an escalated monthly dose of SSA LAR therapy of 40 mg was assumed to treat patients with CSD not adequately controlled on the labeled dose of SSA LAR. In the new drug scenario, TE was added to the maximum labeled monthly dose of SSA LAR therapy of 30 mg. The incremental budget impact was calculated based on an assumed TE market uptake of 28%, 42%, and 55% during Years 1, 2, and 3, respectively. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to test model assumptions. A hypothetical health plan of 1 million members was estimated to have 42 prevalent CSD patients of whom 17 would be inadequately controlled on SSA LAR therapy. The monthly medical cost per patient not adequately controlled on SSA LAR in addition to pharmacotherapy was estimated to be $3946 based on the literature. Based on the observed treatment response in a clinical trial of 20% and 44% for the base case reference and new drug scenarios, total per patient per month costs were estimated to be $7563 and $11,205, respectively. Total annual costs in the new drug scenario were estimated to be $2.3 to $2.5 million during the first 3 years. The overall incremental annual costs were estimated to be $154,000 in Year 1, $231,000 in Year 2, and $302,000 in Year 3. This translated to an incremental per patient per month cost of $0.013, $0.019, and $0.025 for Years 1, 2, and 3. These results remained robust in 1-way sensitivity analyses. The availability of TE for patients not adequately controlled on SSA LAR therapy provides a novel treatment option for CSD. This model showed that providing access to this first-in-class oral agent would have a minimal budget impact to a US health plan. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Two types of physical inconsistency to avoid with quantile mapping: a case study with relative humidity over North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grenier, P.

2017-12-01

Statistical post-processing techniques aim at generating plausible climate scenarios from climate simulations and observation-based reference products. These techniques are generally not physically-based, and consequently they remedy the problem of simulation biases at the risk of generating physical inconsistency (PI). Although this concern is often emphasized, it is rarely addressed quantitatively. Here, PI generated by quantile mapping (QM), a technique widely used in climatological and hydrological applications, is investigated using relative humidity (RH) and its parent variables, namely specific humidity (SH), temperature and pressure. PI is classified into two types: 1) inadequate value for an individual variable (e.g. RH > 100 %), and 2) breaking of an inter-variable relationship. Scenarios built for this study correspond to twelve sites representing a variety of climate types over North America. Data used are an ensemble of ten 3-hourly global (CMIP5) and regional (CORDEX-NAM) simulations, as well as the CFSR reanalysis. PI of type 1 is discussed in terms of frequency of occurrence and amplitude of unphysical cases for RH and SH variables. PI of type 2 is investigated with heuristic proxies designed to directly compare the physical inconsistency problem with the initial bias problem. Finally, recommendations are provided for an appropriate use of QM given the potential to generate physical inconsistency of types 1 and 2.

Parametric Analysis for Aurora Mars Manned Mission Concept Definition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augros, P.; Bonnefond, F.; Ranson, S.

In the frame of the Aurora program (ESA program), Europe plans to get its own vision about future Mars manned mission. Within this context, we have performed an end-to-end analysis of what could be these missions, focusing on transportation aspects and mobile in-situ infrastructure. This paper will define what is needed to land on Mars, what is needed to return from Mars surface, will explore the round trip options and their consequences on the mission design and feasibility and will analyze the launcher issue and the in-orbit assembly scenarios. The main results enable to rediscover a candidate mission based on a scenario close to the NASA reference mission (Ref [1]). The main interest, from transportation point of view, is that the spacecraft are similar: same insertion stage, same descent vehicle. Such design can be possible with deployable aeroshield for Mars entry vehicle, in-situ water and propellant production, improved habitat technology, conjunction like round trip (minimum V avoiding science fiction design), a launcher payload capability of 100 tons in LEO with a payload size of 30 m long and 7.5 m diameter. An alternative, limiting also the overall mass in LEO, could be a no Mars infrastructure deployment and a single spacecraft going to Mars and returning back to Earth. But it implies for the crew to stay in Mars orbit several months, waiting for the next opportunity ensuring a minimum V.

A risk assessment for consumers of mourning doves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burger, J.; Kennamer, R.A.; Brisbin, I.L. Jr.

1998-10-01

Recreational and subsistence hunters and anglers consume a wide range of species, including birds, mammals, fish and shellfish, some of which represent significant exposure pathways for environmental toxic agents. This study focuses on the Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Savannah River Site (SRS), a former nuclear weapons production facility in South Carolina. The potential risk of contaminant intake from consuming mourning doves (Zenaida macroura), the most popular United States game bird, was examined under various risk scenarios. For all of these scenarios the authors used the mean tissue concentration of six metals (lead, mercury, cadmium, selenium, chromium, manganese) and radiocesium, inmore » doves collected on and near SRS. They also estimated risk to a child consuming doves that had the maximum contaminant level. The authors used the cancer slope factor for radiocesium, the Environmental Protection Agencies Uptake/Biokinetic model for lead, and published reference doses for the other metals. As a result of their risk assessments they recommend management of water levels in contaminated reservoirs so that lake bed sediments are not exposed to use by gamebirds and other terrestrial wildlife. Particularly, measures should be taken to insure that the hunting public does not h ave access to such a site. Their data also indicate that doves on popular hunting areas are exposed to excess lead, suggesting that banning lead shot for doves, as has been done for waterfowl, is desirable.« less

Integrated Disinfection By-Products Mixtures Research: Disinfection of Drinking Waters by Chlorination and Ozonation/Postchlorination Treatment Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

This article describes disinfection of the same source water by two commonly used disinfection treatment scenarios for purposes of subsequent concentration, chemical analysis, and toxicological evaluation. Accompanying articles in this issue of the Journal of Toxicology and Envir...

Global critical materials markets: An agent-based modeling approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riddle, Matthew; Macal, Charles M.; Conzelmann, Guenter

As part of efforts to position the United States as a leader in clean energy technology production, the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued two Critical Materials Strategy reports, which assessed 16 materials on the basis of their importance to clean energy development and their supply risk ( U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), 2010 and DOE, 2011). To understand the implications for clean energy of disruptions in supplies of critical materials, it is important to understand supply chain dynamics from mining to final product production. As a case study of critical material supply chains, we focus on the supplymore » of two rare earth metals, neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy), for permanent magnets used in wind turbines, electric vehicles and other applications. We introduce GCMat, a dynamic agent-based model that includes interacting agents at five supply chain stages consisting of mining, metal refining, magnet production, final product production and demand. Agents throughout the supply chain make pricing, production and inventory management decisions. Deposit developers choose which deposits to develop based on market conditions and detailed data on 57 rare earth deposits. Wind turbine and electric vehicle producers choose from a set of possible production technologies that require different amounts of rare earths. We ran the model under a baseline scenario and four alternative scenarios with different demand and production technology inputs. Model results from 2010 to 2013 fit well with historical data. Projections through 2025 show a number of possible future price, demand, and supply trajectories. For each scenario, we highlight reasons for turning points under market conditions, for differences between Nd and Dy markets, and for differences between scenarios. Because GCMat can model causal dynamics and provide fine-grain representation of agents and their decisions, it provides explanations for turning points under market conditions that are not otherwise available from other modeling approaches. Our baseline projections show very different behaviors for Nd and Dy prices. Nd prices continue to drop and remain low even at the end of our simulation period as new capacity comes online and leads to a market in which production capacity outpaces demand. Dy price movements, on the other hand, change directions several times with several key turning points related to inventory behaviors of particular agents in the supply chain and asymmetric supply and demand trends. Scenario analyses show the impact of stronger demand growth for rare earths, and in particular finds that Nd price impacts are significantly delayed as compared to Dy. This is explained by the substantial excess production capacity for Nd in the early simulation years that keeps prices down. Scenarios that explore the impact of reducing the Dy content of magnets show the intricate interdependencies of these two markets as price trends for both rare earths reverse directions – reducing the Dy content of magnets reduces Dy demand, which drives down Dy prices and translates into lower magnet prices. This in turn raises the demand for magnets and therefore the demand for Nd and eventually drives up the Nd price.« less

Optimal control for wind turbine system via state-space method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanoob, Mudhafar L.

Renewable energy is becoming a fascinating research interest in future energy production because it is green and does not pollute nature. Wind energy is an excellent example of renewable resources that are evolving. Throughout the history of humanity, wind energy has been used. In ancient time, it was used to grind seeds, sailing etc. Nowadays, wind energy has been used to generate electrical power. Researchers have done a lot of research about using a wind source to generate electricity. As wind flow is not reliable, there is a challenge to get stable electricity out of this varying wind. This problem leads to the use of different control methods and the optimization of these methods to get a stable and reliable electrical energy. In this research, a wind turbine system is considered to study the transient and the steady-state stability; consisting of the aerodynamic system, drive train and generator. The Doubly Feed Induction Generator (DFIG) type generator is used in this thesis. The wind turbine system is connected to power system network. The grid is an infinite bus bar connected to a short transmission line and transformer. The generator is attached to the grid from the stator side. State-space method is used to model the wind turbine parts. The system is modeled and controlled using MATLAB/Simulation software. First, the current-mode control method (PVdq) with (PI) regulator is operated as a reference to find how the system reacts to an unexpected disturbance on the grid side or turbine side. The controller is operated with three scenarios of disruption: Disturbance-mechanical torque input, Step disturbance in the electrical torque reference and Fault Ride-through. In the simulation results, the time response and the transient stability of the system is a product of the disturbances that take a long time to settle. So, for this reason, Linear Quadratic Regulation (LQR) optimal control is utilized to solve this problem. The LQR method is designed based on using type 1 servo system that depends on the full state feedback variables and tracking error. The LQR improves the transient stability and time response of the wind turbine system in all three-disturbance scenarios. The results of both methods are deeply explained in the simulation section.

Constructing probabilistic scenarios for wide-area solar power generation

DOE PAGES

Woodruff, David L.; Deride, Julio; Staid, Andrea; ...

2017-12-22

Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions.more » Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.« less

Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil.

PubMed

Scovronick, Noah; França, Daniela; Alonso, Marcelo; Almeida, Claudia; Longo, Karla; Freitas, Saulo; Rudorff, Bernardo; Wilkinson, Paul

2016-07-11

It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil's high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 μg/m³ and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline.

Constructing probabilistic scenarios for wide-area solar power generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodruff, David L.; Deride, Julio; Staid, Andrea

Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions.more » Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.« less

Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil

PubMed Central

Scovronick, Noah; França, Daniela; Alonso, Marcelo; Almeida, Claudia; Longo, Karla; Freitas, Saulo; Rudorff, Bernardo; Wilkinson, Paul

2016-01-01

It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil’s high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 μg/m3 and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline. PMID:27409628

Adaptation Measures Evaliation on Agriculture Under Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios in Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Vicuna, S.; Gironas, J. A.; Meza, F. J.

2016-12-01

Future climate change scenarios threaten current practices in agriculture and therefore adaptation measures have been proposed to overcome this possible situation. Regional to local ideas apply for all kind of adaptation measures and can be found among literature for Central Chile, but their quantitative efficiency is rarely evaluated. Furthermore, land uses changes are commonly neglected in such evaluations. This research use the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) to simulate weekly water distribution and consumption in Chile's rural areas up to 2050. Using information directly provided by the Water User Organizations (WUO), the developed model assesses possible future impacts on 2 crops (corn and plum) under 15 climate scenarios and land use trends. Results show that WEAP-PGM tool can represent satisfactorily crop sensitiveness to historic and future circumstances. Nine scenarios satisfy average crop water demands, but all of them present a diminished yield (1%-14%) and production (8%-20%). Just six scenarios cannot meet crop water demands (40-70% of reliability) if adaptation measures are not applied. Given this need, two adaptation measures were evaluated: a) using all water rights and b) irrigation improvements. The second option showed to be the most effective measure leading to the satisfaction of crop water demands under all the scenarios, but still a diminished yield and production remained.

An inverse approach to perturb historical rainfall data for scenario-neutral climate impact studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

2018-01-01

Scenario-neutral approaches are being used increasingly for climate impact assessments, as they allow water resource system performance to be evaluated independently of climate change projections. An important element of these approaches is the generation of perturbed series of hydrometeorological variables that form the inputs to hydrologic and water resource assessment models, with most scenario-neutral studies to-date considering only shifts in the average and a limited number of other statistics of each climate variable. In this study, a stochastic generation approach is used to perturb not only the average of the relevant hydrometeorological variables, but also attributes such as the intermittency and extremes. An optimization-based inverse approach is developed to obtain hydrometeorological time series with uniform coverage across the possible ranges of rainfall attributes (referred to as the 'exposure space'). The approach is demonstrated on a widely used rainfall generator, WGEN, for a case study at Adelaide, Australia, and is shown to be capable of producing evenly-distributed samples over the exposure space. The inverse approach expands the applicability of the scenario-neutral approach in evaluating a water resource system's sensitivity to a wider range of plausible climate change scenarios.

Potential for reducing air-pollutants while achieving 2 °C global temperature change limit target.

PubMed

Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Akashi, Osamu; Fujiwara, Kazuya; Motoki, Yuko; Hibino, Go

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the potential to reduce air pollutants while achieving the 2 °C global temperature change limit target above pre-industrial levels, by using the bottom-up optimization model, AIM/Enduse[Global]. This study focuses on; 1) estimating mitigation potentials and costs for achieving 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C target scenarios, 2) assessing co-benefits of reducing air pollutants such as NOx, SO2, BC, PM, and 3) analyzing features of sectoral attributions in Annex I and Non-Annex I groups of countries. The carbon tax scenario at 50 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 can reduce GHG emissions more than the 3 °C target scenario, but a higher carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 is required to achieve the 2 °C target scenario. However, there is also a co-benefit of large reduction potential of air pollutants, in the range of 60-80% reductions in 2050 from the reference scenario while achieving the 2 °C target. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life cycle assessment based evaluation of regional impacts from agricultural production at the Peruvian coast.

PubMed

Bartl, Karin; Verones, Francesca; Hellweg, Stefanie

2012-09-18

Crop and technology choices in agriculture, which largely define the impact of agricultural production on the environment, should be considered in agricultural development planning. A life cycle assessment of the dominant crops produced in a Peruvian coastal valley was realized, in order to establish regionalized life cycle inventories for Peruvian products and to provide the basis for a regional evaluation of the impacts of eutrophication, acidification, human toxicity, and biodiversity loss due to water use. Five scenarios for the year 2020 characterized by different crop combinations and irrigation systems were considered as development options. The results of the regional assessment showed that a business-as-usual scenario, extrapolating current trends of crop cultivation, would lead to an increase in nitrate leaching with eutrophying effects. On the other hand, scenarios of increased application of drip irrigation and of mandarin area expansion would lead to a decrease in nitrate leaching. In all scenarios the human toxicity potential would decrease slightly, while an increase in irrigation water use would benefit the biodiversity of a nearby groundwater-fed wetland. Comparisons with results from other studies confirmed the importance of regionalized life cycle inventories. The results can be used as decision support for local farmers and authorities.

A Spatially-Explicit Technique for Evaluation of Alternative ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ecosystems contribute to maintaining human well-being directly through provision of goods and indirectly through provision of services that support clean water, clean air, flood protection and atmospheric stability. Transparently accounting for biophysical attributes from which humans derive benefit is essential to support dialog among the public, resource managers, decision makers, and scientists. We analyzed the potential ecosystem goods and services production from alternative future land use scenarios in the US Tampa Bay region. Ecosystem goods and service metrics included carbon sequestration, nitrogen removal, air pollutant removal, and stormwater retention. Each scenario was compared to a 2006 baseline land use. Estimated production of denitrification services changed by 28% and carbon sequestration by 20% between 2006 and the “business as usual” scenario. An alternative scenario focused on “natural resource protection” resulted in an estimated 9% loss in air pollution removal. Stormwater retention was estimated to change 18% from 2006 to 2060 projections. Cost effective areas for conservation, almost 1588 ha, beyond current conservation lands, were identified by comparing ecosystem goods and services production to assessed land values. Our ecosystem goods and services approach provides a simple and quantitative way to examine a more complete set of potential outcomes from land use decisions. This study demonstrates an approach for spatially expli

NASA CEV Reference Entry GN&C System and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munday, S.; Madsen, C.; Broome, J.; Gay, R.; Tigges, M.; Strahan, A.

2007-01-01

As part of its overall objectives, the Orion spacecraft will be required to perform entry and Earth landing functions for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Lunar missions. Both of these entry scenarios will begin with separation of the Service Module (SM), making them unique from other Orion mission phases in that only the Command Module (CM) portion of the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) will be involved, requiring a CM specific Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) system. Also common to these mission scenarios will be the need for GN&C to safely return crew (or cargo) to earth within the dynamic thermal and structural constraints of entry and within acceptable accelerations on the crew, utilizing the limited aerodynamic performance of the CM capsule. The lunar return mission could additionally require an initial atmospheric entry designed to support a precision skip and second entry, all to maximize downrange performance and ensure landing in the United States. This paper describes the Entry GN&C reference design, developed by the NASA-led team, that supports these entry scenarios and that was used to validate the Orion System requirements. Description of the reference design will include an overview of the GN&C functions, avionics, and effectors and will relate these to the specific design drivers of the entry scenarios, as well as the desire for commonality in vehicle systems to support the different missions. The discussion will also include the requirement for an Emergency Entry capability beyond that of the nominal performance of the multi-string GNC system, intended to return the crew to the earth in a survivable but unguided manner. Finally, various analyses will be discussed, including those completed to support validation efforts of the current CEV requirements, along with those on-going and planned with the intention to further refine the requirements and to support design development work in conjunction with the prime contractor. Some of these ongoing analyses will include work to size effectors (jets) and fuel budgets, to refine skip entry concepts, to characterize navigation performance and uncertainties, to provide for SM disposal offshore and to identify requirements to support target site selection.

Influences of removing linear and nonlinear trends from climatic variables on temporal variations of annual reference crop evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Yao, Ning; Chau, Henry Wai

2017-08-15

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET o ) is a key parameter in field irrigation scheduling, drought assessment and climate change research. ET o uses key prescribed (or fixed or reference) land surface parameters for crops. The linear and nonlinear trends in different climatic variables (CVs) affect ET o change. This research aims to reveal how ET o responds after the related CVs were linearly and nonlinearly detrended over 1961-2013 in Xinjiang, China. The ET o -related CVs included minimum (T min ), average (T ave ), and maximum air temperatures (T max ), wind speed at 2m (U 2 ), relative humidity (RH) and sunshine hour (n). ET o was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. A total of 29 ET o scenarios, including the original scenario, 14 scenarios in Group I (ET o was recalculated after removing linear trends from single or more CVs) and 14 scenarios in Group II (ET o was recalculated after removing nonlinear trends from the CVs), were generated. The influence of U 2 was stronger than influences of the other CVs on ET o for both Groups I and II either in northern, southern or the entirety of Xinjiang. The weak influences of increased T min , T ave and T max on increasing ET o were masked by the strong effects of decreased U 2 &n and increased RH on decreasing ET o . The effects of the trends in CVs, especially U 2 , on changing ET o were clearly shown. Without the general decreases of U 2 , ET o would have increased in the past 53years. Due to the non-monotone variations of the CVs and ET o , the results of nonlinearly detrending CVs on changing ET o in Group II should be more plausible than the results of linearly detrending CVs in Group I. The decreasing ET o led to a general relief in drought, which was indicated by the recalculated aridity index. Therefore, there would be a slightly lower risk of water utilization in Xinjiang, China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neutrino Factory Plans at CERN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riche, J. A.

2002-10-01

The considerable interest raised by the discovery of neutrino oscillations and recent progress in studies of muon colliders has triggered interest in considering a neutrino factory at CERN. This paper explains the reference scenario, indicates the other possible choices and mentions the R&D that are foreseen.

San Pedro River Basin Data Browser (http://fws-case-12.nmsu.edu/SanPedro/)

EPA Science Inventory

Acquisition of primary spatial data and database development are initial features of any type of landscape assessment project. They provide contemporary land cover and the ancillary datasets necessary to establish reference condition and develop alternative future scenarios that ...

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed

PubMed Central

Zwart, Sander J.; Hein, Lars

2018-01-01

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades. PMID:29513753

Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen in the 21st Century: Projections of the Responses of an Old-Growth Douglas-Fir Forest in the Pacific Northwest under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Z.; Driscoll, C. T.; Hayhoe, K.; Pourmokhtarian, A.; Stoner, A. M. K.

2015-12-01

The biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, was applied to Watershed 2 in H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, to project ecosystem carbon and nitrogen responses under different future climate change scenarios. Downscaled climate change inputs derived from two IPCC scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were interpreted by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) at Andrews Forest. Model results showed decreases in foliar production under high temperature/CO2 scenarios due to increasing vapor pressure deficit. Projections by PnET-BGC suggest that under future climate changes in primary production coupled with an increasing rate of decomposition may result in decreases in litterfall carbon and nitrogen and soil organic carbon and nitrogen. Such changes in soil organic carbon and nitrogen may cause wide range of changes in ecosystem processing of nitrogen and carbon, such as nitrogen mineralization, plant NH4+ uptake, and stream NH4+ and dissolved organic carbon concentrations depending on climate change scenario considered. Under most high emission scenarios, net nitrogen mineralization and plant NH4+ uptake are projected to increase until the end of this century as result of increasing temperature and associated higher rates of decomposition. An accumulation of nitrogen in plant tissue due to decreasing litterfall decreases plant demand for nitrogen. Such changes in nitrogen mineralization and uptake will result in increase in stream NH4+ concentrations under high emission scenarios. Under low emission scenarios, net nitrogen mineralization and plant NH4+ uptake are projected to increase up to mid-century, then slightly decrease until the end of the century.

A view to the future of natural gas and electricity: An integrated modeling approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J.; Medlock, Kenneth B.; Jani, Aditya

This paper demonstrates the value of integrating two highly spatially resolved models: the Rice World Gas Trade Model (RWGTM) of the natural gas sector and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model of the U.S. electricity sector. The RWGTM passes electricity-sector natural gas prices to the ReEDS model, while the ReEDS model returns electricity-sector natural gas demand to the RWGTM. The two models successfully converge to a solution under reference scenario conditions. We present electricity-sector and natural gas sector evolution using the integrated models for this reference scenario. This paper demonstrates that the integrated models produced similar national-level results asmore » when running in a stand-alone form, but that regional and state-level results can vary considerably. As we highlight, these regional differences have potentially significant implications for electric sector planners especially in the wake of substantive policy changes for the sector (e.g., the Clean Power Plan).« less

A view to the future of natural gas and electricity: An integrated modeling approach

DOE PAGES

Cole, Wesley J.; Medlock, Kenneth B.; Jani, Aditya

2016-03-17

This paper demonstrates the value of integrating two highly spatially resolved models: the Rice World Gas Trade Model (RWGTM) of the natural gas sector and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model of the U.S. electricity sector. The RWGTM passes electricity-sector natural gas prices to the ReEDS model, while the ReEDS model returns electricity-sector natural gas demand to the RWGTM. The two models successfully converge to a solution under reference scenario conditions. We present electricity-sector and natural gas sector evolution using the integrated models for this reference scenario. This paper demonstrates that the integrated models produced similar national-level results asmore » when running in a stand-alone form, but that regional and state-level results can vary considerably. As we highlight, these regional differences have potentially significant implications for electric sector planners especially in the wake of substantive policy changes for the sector (e.g., the Clean Power Plan).« less

Modeling Sustainable Bioenergy Feedstock Production in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraxner, Florian; Leduc, Sylvain; Kindermann, Georg; Fuss, Sabine; Pietsch, Stephan; Lakyda, Ivan; Serrano Leon, Hernan; Shchepashchenko, Dmitry; Shvidenko, Anatoly

2016-04-01

Sustainability of bioenergy is often indicated by the neutrality of emissions at the conversion site while the feedstock production site is assumed to be carbon neutral. Recent research shows that sustainability of bioenergy systems starts with feedstock management. Even if sustainable forest management is applied, different management types can impact ecosystem services substantially. This study examines different sustainable forest management systems together with an optimal planning of green-field bioenergy plants in the Alps. Two models - the biophysical global forest model (G4M) and a techno-economic engineering model for optimizing renewable energy systems (BeWhere) are implemented. G4M is applied in a forward looking manner in order to provide information on the forest under different management scenarios: (1) managing the forest for maximizing the carbon sequestration; or (2) managing the forest for maximizing the harvestable wood amount for bioenergy production. The results from the forest modelling are then picked up by the engineering model BeWhere, which optimizes the bioenergy production in terms of energy demand (power and heat demand by population) and supply (wood harvesting potentials), feedstock harvesting and transport costs, the location and capacity of the bioenergy plant as well as the energy distribution logistics with respect to heat and electricity (e.g. considering existing grids for electricity or district heating etc.). First results highlight the importance of considering ecosystem services under different scenarios and in a geographically explicit manner. While aiming at producing the same amount of bioenergy under both forest management scenarios, it turns out that in scenario (1) a substantially larger area (distributed across the Alps) will need to be used for producing (and harvesting) the necessary amount of feedstock than under scenario (2). This result clearly shows that scenario (2) has to be seen as an "intensification scenario" under which more biomass feedstock can be produced and harvested, so that less area would be affected by harvesting and other management activities. Intensification through optimal forest management can lead to a substantial reduction of the area necessary for bioenergy feedstock supply. This in turn means that the "spared" area and the associated ecosystem services can be designated for conservation or other uses. This insight provides support to policy and decision makers in considering the optimal "mix" or "co-existence" of different ecosystem services and economic demands from a modern landscape management approach.

Data Identifiers and Citations Enable Reproducible Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, C.

2011-12-01

Modern science often involves data processing with tremendous volumes of data. Keeping track of that data has been a growing challenge for data center. Researchers who access and use that data don't always reference and cite their data sources adequately for consumers of their research to follow their methodology or reproduce their analyses or experiments. Recent research has led to recommendations for good identifiers and citations that can help address this problem. This paper will describe some of the best practices in data identifiers, reference and citation. Using a simplified example scenario based on a long term remote sensing satellite mission, it will explore issues in identifying dynamic data sets and the importance of good data citations for reproducibility. It will describe the difference between granule and collection level identifiers, using UUIDs and DOIs to illustrate some recommendations for developing identifiers and assigning them during data processing. As data processors create data products, the provenance of the input products and precise steps that led to their creation are recorded and published for users of the data to see. As researchers access the data from an archive, they can use the provenance to help understand the genesis of the data, which could have effects on their usage of the data. By citing the data on publishing their research, others can retrieve the precise data used in their research and reproduce the analyses and experiments to confirm the results. Describing the experiment to a sufficient extent to reproduce the research enforces a formal approach that lends credibility to the results, and ultimately, to the policies of decision makers depending on that research.

Rational design of gold nanoparticle toxicology assays: a question of exposure scenario, dose and experimental setup.

PubMed

Taylor, Ulrike; Rehbock, Christoph; Streich, Carmen; Rath, Detlef; Barcikowski, Stephan

2014-09-01

Many studies have evaluated the toxicity of gold nanoparticles, although reliable predictions based on these results are rare. In order to overcome this problem, this article highlights strategies to improve comparability and standardization of nanotoxicological studies. To this end, it is proposed that we should adapt the nanomaterial to the addressed exposure scenario, using ligand-free nanoparticle references in order to differentiate ligand effects from size effects. Furthermore, surface-weighted particle dosing referenced to the biologically relevant parameter (e.g., cell number or organ mass) is proposed as the gold standard. In addition, it is recommended that we should shift the focus of toxicological experiments from 'live-dead' assays to the assessment of cell function, as this strategy allows observation of bioresponses at lower doses that are more relevant for in vivo scenarios.

Cow-calf reproductive, genetic, and nutritional management to improve the sustainability of whole beef production systems.

PubMed

White, R R; Brady, M; Capper, J L; McNamara, J P; Johnson, K A

2015-06-01

Optimizing efficiency in the cow-calf sector is an important step toward improving beef sustainability. The objective of the study was to use a model to identify the relative roles of reproductive, genetic, and nutritional management in minimizing beef production systems' environmental impact in an economically viable, socially acceptable manner. An economic and environmental diet optimizer was used to identify ideal nutritional management of beef production systems varying in genetic and reproductive technology use. Eight management scenarios were compared to a least cost baseline: average U.S. production practices (CON), CON with variable nutritional management (NUT), twinning cattle (TWN), early weaning (EW), sire selection by EPD using either on-farm bulls (EPD-B) or AI (EPD-AI), decreasing the calving window (CW), or selecting bulls by EPD and reducing the calving window (EPD-CW). Diets to minimize land use, water use, and/or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were optimized under each scenario. Increases in diet cost attributable to reducing environmental impact were constrained to less than stakeholder willingness to pay for improved efficiency and reduced environmental impact. Baseline land use, water use, and GHG emissions were 188 m, 712 L, and 21.9 kg/kg HCW beef. The NUT scenario, which assessed opportunities to improve sustainability by altering nutritional management alone, resulted in a simultaneous 1.5% reduction in land use, water use, and GHG emissions. The CW scenario improved calf uniformity and simultaneously decreased land use, water use, and GHG emissions by 3.2%. Twinning resulted in a 9.2% reduction in the 3 environmental impact metrics. The EW scenario allowed for an 8.5% reduction in the 3 metrics. The EPD-AI scenario resulted in an 11.1% reduction, which was comparable to the 11.3% reduction achieved by EPD-B in the 3 metrics. Improving genetic selection by using AI or by purchasing on-farm bulls based on their superior EPD demonstrated clear opportunity to improve sustainability. When genetic and reproductive technologies were adopted, up to a 12.4% reduction in environmental impact was achievable. Given the modeling assumptions used in this study, optimizing nutritional management while concurrently improving genetic and reproductive efficiency may be promising avenues to improve productivity and sustainability of U.S. beef systems.

An Insight of Meat Industry in Pakistan with Special Reference to Halal Meat: A Comprehensive Review.

PubMed

Sohaib, Muhammad; Jamil, Faraz

2017-01-01

Livestock is considered central component in agricultural sector of Pakistan, provides employment to more than 8 million families. Meat and meat products holds pivotal significance in meeting dietary requirements serving as major protein source and provide essential vitamins and minerals. Globally, consumer demand is increasing for healthy, hygienic and safe meat and meat products due to growing population, income level and food choices. As, food choices are mainly influenced by region, religion and economic level. However, religion is one of the major factor to influence the food choices. In this context, halal foods a growing trend, trade estimated to cross USD $ 3 trillion and among this, meat sector contribute about US$ 600 billion. Halal meat and allied products is requirement from Muslims but it is also accepted by non-Muslims due to safe and hygienic nature, nutritious value and superior quality. Pakistan meat industry is vibrant and has seen rigorous developments during last decade as government also showed interest to boost livestock production and processing facilities to meet increasing local and global demand. The industry has potential to grow owing to its natural animal rearing capability, muslim majority country (96% of total population), improvisation of market and consumer preference towards halal meat. Current review debates Pakistan meat industry scenario, production trend, global trade as well as future potential with respect to modernization, processing, distribution and trade. The data presented here is useful for meat producers, processors and people involved in export of Pakistani meat and meat based products.

An Insight of Meat Industry in Pakistan with Special Reference to Halal Meat: A Comprehensive Review

PubMed Central

Jamil, Faraz

2017-01-01

Livestock is considered central component in agricultural sector of Pakistan, provides employment to more than 8 million families. Meat and meat products holds pivotal significance in meeting dietary requirements serving as major protein source and provide essential vitamins and minerals. Globally, consumer demand is increasing for healthy, hygienic and safe meat and meat products due to growing population, income level and food choices. As, food choices are mainly influenced by region, religion and economic level. However, religion is one of the major factor to influence the food choices. In this context, halal foods a growing trend, trade estimated to cross USD $ 3 trillion and among this, meat sector contribute about US$ 600 billion. Halal meat and allied products is requirement from Muslims but it is also accepted by non-Muslims due to safe and hygienic nature, nutritious value and superior quality. Pakistan meat industry is vibrant and has seen rigorous developments during last decade as government also showed interest to boost livestock production and processing facilities to meet increasing local and global demand. The industry has potential to grow owing to its natural animal rearing capability, muslim majority country (96% of total population), improvisation of market and consumer preference towards halal meat. Current review debates Pakistan meat industry scenario, production trend, global trade as well as future potential with respect to modernization, processing, distribution and trade. The data presented here is useful for meat producers, processors and people involved in export of Pakistani meat and meat based products. PMID:28747818

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

Cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization: a Markov decision-analytic model.

PubMed

Moolenaar, Lobke M; Broekmans, Frank J M; van Disseldorp, Jeroen; Fauser, Bart C J M; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Hompes, Peter G A; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J

2011-10-01

To compare the cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization (IVF). A Markov decision model based on data from the literature and original patient data. Decision analytic framework. Computer-simulated cohort of subfertile women aged 20 to 45 years who are eligible for IVF. [1] No treatment, [2] up to three cycles of IVF limited to women under 41 years and no ovarian reserve testing, [3] up to three cycles of IVF with dose individualization of gonadotropins according to ovarian reserve, and [4] up to three cycles of IVF with ovarian reserve testing and exclusion of expected poor responders after the first cycle, with no treatment scenario as the reference scenario. Cumulative live birth over 1 year, total costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The cumulative live birth was 9.0% in the no treatment scenario, 54.8% for scenario 2, 70.6% for scenario 3 and 51.9% for scenario 4. Absolute costs per woman for these scenarios were €0, €6,917, €6,678, and €5,892 for scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) for scenarios 2, 3, and 4 were €15,166, €10,837, and €13,743 per additional live birth. Sensitivity analysis showed the model to be robust over a wide range of values. Individualization of the follicle-stimulating hormone dose according to ovarian reserve is likely to be cost effective in women who are eligible for IVF, but this effectiveness needs to be confirmed in randomized clinical trials. Copyright © 2011 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impacts on Chinese Agriculture of Geoengineering and Smoke from Fires Ignited by Nuclear War

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, L.; Robock, A.

2013-12-01

Climate is one of the most important factors determining crop yields and world food supplies. To be well prepared for possible futures, it is necessary to study yield changes of major crops under different climate scenarios. Here we consider two situations: stratospheric sulfate geoengineering and nuclear war. Although we certainly do not advocate either scenario, we cannot exclude the possibilities: if global warming is getting worse, society might consider deliberately manipulating global temperature; if nuclear weapons still exist, we might face a nuclear war catastrophe. Since in both scenarios there would be reductions of temperature, precipitation, and insolation, which are three controlling factors on crop growth, it is important to study food supply changes under the two cases. We conducted our simulations for China, because it has the highest population and crop production in the world and it is under the strong influence of the summer monsoon, which would be altered in geoengineering and nuclear war scenarios. To examine the effects of climate changes induced by geoengineering and nuclear war on Chinese agriculture, we use the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model. We first evaluated the model by forcing it with daily weather data and management practices for the period 1978-2008 for 24 provinces in China, and compared the results to observations of the yields of major crops in China (middle season rice, winter wheat, and maize). Then we perturbed observed weather data using climate anomalies for geoengineering and nuclear war simulations. For geoengineering, we consider the G2 scenario of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), which prescribes an insolation reduction to balance a 1% per year increase in CO2 concentration (1pctCO2). We used results from ten climate models participating in G2. For the nuclear war scenario, we consider the effects of 5 Tg of soot that could be injected into the upper troposphere by a war between India and Pakistan using only 100 Hiroshima-size atomic bombs dropped on cities. We used results from three climate models that did the same simulation. For the geoengineering scenario, without changes of agricultural technology, the combined effect of climate changes due to geoengineering and CO2 fertilization would change rice production in China by -4.6×6.0 Mt (4.5×5.9%) as compared with 1pctCO2 and would increase Chinese maize production by 20.9×6.9 Mt (14.8×4.9%) the period 46-50 years after the CO2 increase and compensating insolation reduction began. The CO2 fertilization effect compensates for the deleterious impacts of climate changes due to geoengineering on rice production, increasing rice production by 8.2 Mt and the elevated CO2 concentration enhances maize production in G2, contributing 35.5% to the total increase. While agricultural impacts may not be a serious problem for geoengineering, there are many other potential risks that need to be evaluated before geoengineering should be considered. Climate changes due to nuclear war would decrease Chinese rice production by 20×4.7%, maize production by 15×6.2% and winter wheat production by 35×19.3% for a five-year period after the soot injection, producing a major world food security crisis.

Ultrahigh-energy Cosmic Rays from the "En Caul" Birth of Magnetars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piro, Anthony L.; Kollmeier, Juna A.

2016-07-01

Rapidly spinning magnetars can potentially form through the accretion induced collapse of a white dwarf or by neutron star (NS) mergers if the equation of state of the nuclear density matter is such that two low-mass NSs can form a massive NS rather than a black hole. In either case, the newborn magnetar is an attractive site for the production of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (particles with individual energies exceeding {10}18 {{eV}}; UHECRs). The short-period spin and strong magnetic field are able to accelerate particles up to appropriate energies, and the composition of material on and around the magnetar may naturally explain recent inferences of heavy elements in UHECRs. We explore whether the small amount of natal debris surrounding these magnetars allows UHECRs to escape easily. We also investigate the impact on the UHECRs of the unique environment around the magnetar, which consists of a bubble of relativistic particles and magnetic field within the debris. The rates and energetics of UHECRs are consistent with such an origin, even though the rates of events that produce rapidly spinning magnetars remain very uncertain. The low ejecta mass also helps the high-energy neutrino background associated with this scenario to be below current IceCube constraints over most of the magnetar parameter space. A unique prediction is that UHECRs may be generated in old stellar environments without strong star formation, in contrast to what would be expected for other UHECR scenarios, such as active galactic nuclei or long gamma-ray bursts. The “en caul” birth refers to the rare circumstance in which a newborn emerges in a fully intact amniotic sac. A birth of this nature is considered to be a sign of good fortune in many cultures. Here, we refer to the newborn magnetar similarly surrounded by a small amount of natal material and similarly fortunate as a cosmic-ray accelerator.

The effectiveness of an intensive care quick reference checklist manual--a randomized simulation-based trial.

PubMed

Just, Katja S; Hubrich, Svenja; Schmidtke, Daniel; Scheifes, Andrea; Gerbershagen, Mark U; Wappler, Frank; Grensemann, Joern

2015-04-01

We aimed to test the effectiveness of checklists for emergency procedures on medical staff performance in intensive care crises. This is a prospective single-center randomized trial in a high-fidelity simulation center modeling an intensive care unit (ICU) in a tertiary care hospital in Germany. Teams consisted of 1 ICU resident and 2 ICU nurses (in total, n = 48). All completed 4 crisis scenarios, in which they were randomized to use checklists or to perform without any aid. In 2 of the scenarios, checklists could be used immediately (type 1 scenarios); and for the remaining, some further steps, for example, confirming diagnosis, were required first (type 2 scenarios). Outcome measurements were number of predefined items and time to completion of more than 50% and more than 75% of steps, respectively. When using checklists, participants initiated items faster and more completely according to appropriate treatment guidelines (9 vs 7 items with and without checklists, P < .05). Benefit of checklists was better in type 2 scenarios than in type 1 scenarios (2 vs 1 additional item, P < .05). In type 2 scenarios, time to complete 50% and 75% of items was faster with the use of checklists (P < .005). Use of checklists in ICU crises has a benefit on the completion of critical treatment steps. Within the type 2 scenarios, items were fulfilled faster with checklists. The implementation of checklists for intensive care crises is a promising approach that may improve patients' care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An integrated supply chain model for new products with imprecise production and supply under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagar, Lokesh; Dutta, Pankaj; Jain, Karuna

2014-05-01

In the present day business scenario, instant changes in market demand, different source of materials and manufacturing technologies force many companies to change their supply chain planning in order to tackle the real-world uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to develop a multi-objective two-stage stochastic programming supply chain model that incorporates imprecise production rate and supplier capacity under scenario dependent fuzzy random demand associated with new product supply chains. The objectives are to maximise the supply chain profit, achieve desired service level and minimise financial risk. The proposed model allows simultaneous determination of optimum supply chain design, procurement and production quantities across the different plants, and trade-offs between inventory and transportation modes for both inbound and outbound logistics. Analogous to chance constraints, we have used the possibility measure to quantify the demand uncertainties and the model is solved using fuzzy linear programming approach. An illustration is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Sensitivity analysis is performed for maximisation of the supply chain profit with respect to different confidence level of service, risk and possibility measure. It is found that when one considers the service level and risk as robustness measure the variability in profit reduces.

Emissions implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and in the Rocky Mountain region.

PubMed

McLeod, Jeffrey D; Brinkman, Gregory L; Milford, Jana B

2014-11-18

Enhanced prospects for natural gas production raise questions about the balance of impacts on air quality, as increased emissions from production activities are considered alongside the reductions expected when natural gas is burned in place of other fossil fuels. This study explores how trends in natural gas production over the coming decades might affect emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) for the United States and its Rocky Mountain region. The MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) energy system optimization model is used with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's nine-region database to compare scenarios for natural gas supply and demand, constraints on the electricity generation mix, and GHG emissions fees. Through 2050, total energy system GHG emissions show little response to natural gas supply assumptions, due to offsetting changes across sectors. Policy-driven constraints or emissions fees are needed to achieve net reductions. In most scenarios, wind is a less expensive source of new electricity supplies in the Rocky Mountain region than natural gas. U.S. NOx emissions decline in all the scenarios considered. Increased VOC emissions from natural gas production offset part of the anticipated reductions from the transportation sector, especially in the Rocky Mountain region.

Potential land competition between open-pond microalgae production and terrestrial dedicated feedstock supply systems in the U.S.

DOE PAGES

Coleman, Andre M.; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Hellwinckel, Chad M.; ...

2016-03-03

To date, feedstock resource assessments have evaluated cellulosic and algal feedstocks independently, without consideration of demands for, and resource allocation to, each other. We assess potential land competition between algal and terrestrial feedstocks in the United States, and evaluate a scenario in which 41.5 × 10 9 L yr –1 of second-generation biofuels are produced on pastureland, the most likely land base where both feedstock types may be deployed. Under this scenario, open-pond microalgae production is projected to use 1.2 × 10 6 ha of private pastureland, while terrestrial biomass feedstocks would use 14.0 × 10 6 ha of privatemore » pastureland. A spatial meta-analysis indicates that potential competition for land under this scenario would be concentrated in 110 counties, containing 1.0 and 1.7 × 10 6 ha of algal and terrestrial dedicated feedstock production, respectively. Furthermore, a land competition index applied to these 110 counties suggests that 38 to 59 counties could experience competition for upwards of 40% of a county's pastureland, representing 2%–5% of total pastureland in the U.S.; therefore suggesting little overall competition between algae production, terrestrial energy feedstocks and alternative uses for existing agricultural production such as livestock grazing.« less

FEST-C 1.3 & 2.0 for CMAQ Bi-directional NH3, Crop Production, and SWAT Modeling

EPA Science Inventory

The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) is developed in a Linux environment, a festc JAVA interface that integrates 14 tools and scenario management options facilitating land use/crop data processing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system ...

ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF ALTERNATIVE LANDSCAPE DESIGNS IN THE WALNUT CREEK WATERSHED OF IOWA. (R825335)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of three alternative landscape scenarios created by a team of landscape architects, following input from an interdisciplinary team of researchers. In the first scenario, the main objective was to increase production a...

A Blended Learning Scenario to Enhance Learners' Oral Production Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Hee-Kyung

2015-01-01

This paper examines the effectiveness of a mobile assisted blended learning scenario for pronunciation in Korean language. In particular, we analyze how asynchronous oral communication between learners of Korean and native speakers via "kakaotalk" (an open source mobile phone application) may be beneficial to the learner in terms of…

Promoting Discourse with Task-Based Scenario Interaction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dinapoli, Russell

Tasks have become an essential feature of second language (L2) learning in recent years. Tasks range from getting learners to repeat linguistic elements satisfactorily to having them perform in "free" production. Along this task-based continuum, task-based scenario interaction lies at the point midway between controlled and…

ESP v1.0: Methodology for Exploring Emission Impacts of Future Scenarios in the United States

EPA Science Inventory

This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emi...

A review of water use in the U.S. electric power sector: insights from systems-level perspectives

EPA Science Inventory

Thermoelectric power production comprised 41% of total freshwater withdrawals in the U.S., surpassing even agriculture. This review highlights scenarios of the electric sector’s future demands for water, including scenarios that limit both CO2 and water availability. A number o...

Prospects and challenges for the recovery of 2-butanol produced by vacuum fermentation - a techno-economic analysis.

PubMed

Pereira, Joana P C; Lopez-Gomez, Gustavo; Reyes, Noelia G; van der Wielen, Luuk A M; Straathof, Adrie J J

2017-07-01

The conceptual design of a bio-based process for 2-butanol production is presented for the first time. Considering a hypothetical efficient producing strain, a vacuum fermentation is proposed to alleviate product toxicity, but the main challenge is the energy-efficient product recovery from the vapor. Three downstream scenarios were examined for this purpose: 1) multi-stage vapor recompression; 2) temperature swing adsorption; and 3) vapor absorption. The processes were simulated using Aspen Plus, considering a production capacity of 101 kton/yr. Process optimization was performed targeting the minimum selling price of 2-butanol. The feasibility of the different configurations was analyzed based on the global energy requirements and capital expenditure. The use of integrated adsorption and absorption minimized the energy duty required for azeotrope purification, which represents 11% of the total operational expenditure in Scenario 1. The minimum selling price of 2-butanol as commodity chemical was estimated as 1.05 $/kg, 1.21 $/kg, and 1.03 $/kg regarding the fermentation integrated with downstream scenarios 1), 2), and 3), respectively. Significant savings in 2-butanol production could be achieved in the suggested integrated configurations if more efficient microbial strains were engineered, and more selective adsorption and absorption materials were found for product recovery. Copyright © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Behavior of Listeria monocytogenes at 7 degrees C in commercial turkey breast, with or without antimicrobials, after simulated contamination for manufacturing, retail and consumer settings.

PubMed

Lianou, Alexandra; Geornaras, Ifigenia; Kendall, Patricia A; Scanga, John A; Sofos, John N

2007-08-01

Uncured turkey breast, commercially available with or without a mixture of potassium lactate and sodium diacetate, was sliced, inoculated with a 10-strain composite of Listeria monocytogenes, vacuum-packaged, and stored at 4 degrees C, to simulate contamination after a lethal processing step at the plant. At 5, 15, 25 and 50 days of storage, packages were opened, slices were tested, and bags with remaining slices were reclosed with rubber bands; this simulated home use of plant-sliced and -packaged product. At the same above time intervals, portions of original product (stored at 4 degrees C in original processing bags) were sliced and inoculated as above, and packaged in delicatessen bags, simulating contamination during slicing/handling at retail or home. Both sets of bags were stored aerobically at 7 degrees C for 12 days to simulate home storage. L. monocytogenes populations were lower (P<0.05) during storage in turkey breast containing a combination of lactate and diacetate compared to product without antimicrobials under both contamination scenarios. Due to prolific growth of the pathogen under the plant-contamination scenario in product without lactate-diacetate during vacuum-packaged storage (4 degrees C), populations at 3 days of aerobic storage (7 degrees C) of such product ranged from 4.6 to 7.4 log cfu/cm(2). Under the retail/home-contamination scenario, mean growth rates (log cfu/cm(2)/day) of the organism during aerobic storage ranged from 0.14 to 0.16, and from 0.25 to 0.51, in product with and without lactate-diacetate, respectively; growth rates in turkey breast without antimicrobials decreased (P<0.05) with age of the product. Overall, product without antimicrobials inoculated to simulate plant-contamination and product with lactate-diacetate inoculated to simulate retail/home-contamination were associated with the highest and lowest pathogen levels during aerobic storage at 7 degrees C, respectively. However, 5- and 15-day-old turkey breast without lactate-diacetate stored aerobically for 12 days resulted in similar pathogen levels (7.3-7.7 log cfu/cm(2)), irrespective of contamination scenario.

Inexperience and risky decisions of young adolescents, as pedestrians and cyclists, in interactions with lorries, and the effects of competency versus awareness education.

PubMed

Twisk, Divera; Vlakveld, Willem; Mesken, Jolieke; Shope, Jean T; Kok, Gerjo

2013-06-01

Road injuries are a prime cause of death in early adolescence. Often road safety education (RSE) is used to target risky road behaviour in this age group. These RSE programmes are frequently based on the assumption that deliberate risk taking rather than lack of competency underlies risk behaviour. This study tested the competency of 10-13 year olds, by examining their decisions - as pedestrians and cyclists - in dealing with blind spot areas around lorries. Also, the effects of an awareness programme and a competency programme on these decisions were evaluated. Table-top models were used, representing seven scenarios that differed in complexity: one basic scenario to test the identification of blind spot areas, and 6 traffic scenarios to test behaviour in traffic situations of low or high task complexity. Using a quasi-experimental design (pre-test and post-test reference group design without randomization), the programme effects were assessed by requiring participants (n=62) to show, for each table-top traffic scenario, how they would act if they were in that traffic situation. On the basic scenario, at pre-test 42% of the youngsters identified all blind spots correctly, but only 27% showed safe behaviour in simple scenarios and 5% in complex scenarios. The competency programme yielded improved performance on the basic scenario but not on the traffic scenarios, whereas the awareness programme did not result in any improvements. The correlation between improvements on the basic scenarios and the traffic scenarios was not significant. Young adolescents have not yet mastered the necessary skills for safe performance in simple and complex traffic situations, thus underlining the need for effective prevention programmes. RSE may improve the understanding of blind spot areas but this does not 'automatically' transfer to performance in traffic situations. Implications for the design of RSE are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marty, Christoph; Schlögl, Sebastian; Bavay, Mathias; Lehning, Michael

2017-02-01

This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200 m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999-2012). Future temperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2 °C target) and for three future time periods (2020-2049, 2045-2074, 2070-2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50 % even for elevations above 3000 m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlier in this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500-800 or 700-1000 m for the two non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500 m and only 0-2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period but clearly demonstrate a stabilization thereafter, comprising much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30 % instead of 70 %).

Scenario generation for stochastic optimization problems via the sparse grid method

DOE PAGES

Chen, Michael; Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, David

2015-04-19

We study the use of sparse grids in the scenario generation (or discretization) problem in stochastic programming problems where the uncertainty is modeled using a continuous multivariate distribution. We show that, under a regularity assumption on the random function involved, the sequence of optimal objective function values of the sparse grid approximations converges to the true optimal objective function values as the number of scenarios increases. The rate of convergence is also established. We treat separately the special case when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, and show how the sparse grid methodmore » can be adapted to the distribution by the use of quadrature formulas tailored to the distribution. We numerically compare the performance of the sparse grid method using different quadrature rules with classic quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, optimal rank-one lattice rules, and Monte Carlo (MC) scenario generation, using a series of utility maximization problems with up to 160 random variables. The results show that the sparse grid method is very efficient, especially if the integrand is sufficiently smooth. In such problems the sparse grid scenario generation method is found to need several orders of magnitude fewer scenarios than MC and QMC scenario generation to achieve the same accuracy. As a result, it is indicated that the method scales well with the dimension of the distribution--especially when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, in which case the method appears scalable to thousands of random variables.« less

Sponge biomass and bioerosion rates increase under ocean warming and acidification.

PubMed

Fang, James K H; Mello-Athayde, Matheus A; Schönberg, Christine H L; Kline, David I; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Dove, Sophie

2013-12-01

The combination of ocean warming and acidification as a result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) is considered to be a significant threat to calcifying organisms and their activities on coral reefs. How these global changes impact the important roles of decalcifying organisms (bioeroders) in the regulation of carbonate budgets, however, is less understood. To address this important question, the effects of a range of past, present and future CO2 emission scenarios (temperature + acidification) on the excavating sponge Cliona orientalis Thiele, 1900 were explored over 12 weeks in early summer on the southern Great Barrier Reef. C. orientalis is a widely distributed bioeroder on many reefs, and hosts symbiotic dinoflagellates of the genus Symbiodinium. Our results showed that biomass production and bioerosion rates of C. orientalis were similar under a pre-industrial scenario and a present day (control) scenario. Symbiodinium population density in the sponge tissue was the highest under the pre-industrial scenario, and decreased towards the two future scenarios with sponge replicates under the 'business-as-usual' CO2 emission scenario exhibiting strong bleaching. Despite these changes, biomass production and the ability of the sponge to erode coral carbonate materials both increased under the future scenarios. Our study suggests that C. orientalis will likely grow faster and have higher bioerosion rates in a high CO2 future than at present, even with significant bleaching. Assuming that our findings hold for excavating sponges in general, increased sponge biomass coupled with accelerated bioerosion may push coral reefs towards net erosion and negative carbonate budgets in the future. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Investigating impact of waste reuse on the sustainability of municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration industry using emergy approach: A case study from Sichuan province, China.

PubMed

Wang, Yanqing; Zhang, Xiaohong; Liao, Wenjie; Wu, Jun; Yang, Xiangdong; Shui, Wei; Deng, Shihuai; Zhang, Yanzong; Lin, Lili; Xiao, Yinlong; Yu, Xiaoyu; Peng, Hong

2018-04-25

China has become the largest generator of municipal solid waste (MSW) in the world with its rapid urbanization, population growth and raising living standard. Among diverse solid waste disposal technologies, MSW incineration has been becoming an attractive choice. In terms of systematic point, an integrated MSW incineration system should include an incineration subsystem and a bottom ash (BA) disposal subsystem. This paper employed an extend emergy assessment method with several improved indicators, which considers the emissions' impact, to evaluate the comprehensive performances of an integrated MSW incineration system. One existing incineration plant in Yibin City, Sichuan Province, China, as a case study, is evaluated using the proposed method. Three alternative scenarios (scenario A: the incineration subsystem + the BA landfill subsystem; scenario B: the incineration subsystem + the concrete paving brick production subsystem using BA as raw material; scenario C: the incineration subsystem + the non-burnt wall brick production subsystem using BA as raw material) were compared. The study results reveal that the ratio of positive output is 1.225, 2.861 and 1.230, the improved environmental loading ratio is 2.715, 2.742 and 1.533, and the improved environmental sustainability index is 0.451, 1.043 and 0.803 for scenario A, B and C respectively. Therefore, reuse of BA can enhance the sustainability level of this integrated system greatly. Comparatively, scenario B has the best comprehensive performance among the three scenarios. Finally, some targeted recommendations are put forward for decision-making. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Decision support framework for evaluating the operational environment of forest bioenergy production and use: Case of four European countries.

PubMed

Pezdevšek Malovrh, Špela; Kurttila, Mikko; Hujala, Teppo; Kärkkäinen, Leena; Leban, Vasja; Lindstad, Berit H; Peters, Dörte Marie; Rhodius, Regina; Solberg, Birger; Wirth, Kristina; Zadnik Stirn, Lidija; Krč, Janez

2016-09-15

Complex policy-making situations around bioenergy production and use require examination of the operational environment of the society and a participatory approach. This paper presents and demonstrates a three-phase decision-making framework for analysing the operational environment of strategies related to increased forest bioenergy targets. The framework is based on SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis and the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). Stakeholders of four case countries (Finland, Germany, Norway and Slovenia) defined the factors that affect the operational environments, classified in four pre-set categories (Forest Characteristics and Management, Policy Framework, Technology and Science, and Consumers and Society). The stakeholders participated in weighting of SWOT items for two future scenarios with SMART technique. The first scenario reflected the current 2020 targets (the Business-as-Usual scenario), and the second scenario contained a further increase in the targets (the Increase scenario). This framework can be applied to various problems of environmental management and also to other fields where public decision-making is combined with stakeholders' engagement. The case results show that the greatest differences between the scenarios appear in Germany, indicating a notably negative outlook for the Increase scenario, while the smallest differences were found in Finland. Policy Framework was a highly rated category across the countries, mainly with respect to weaknesses and threats. Intensified forest bioenergy harvesting and utilization has potentially wide country-specific impacts which need to be anticipated and considered in national policies and public dialogue. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using the Simulated Patient Methodology to Assess Paracetamol-Related Counselling for Headache

PubMed Central

Horvat, Nejc; Koder, Marko; Kos, Mitja

2012-01-01

Objectives Firstly, to assess paracetamol-related counselling. Secondly, to evaluate the patient’s approach as a determinant of counselling and to test the acceptability of the simulated patient method in Slovenian pharmacies. Methods The simulated patient methodology was used in 17 community pharmacies. Three scenarios related to self-medication for headaches were developed and used in all participating pharmacies. Two scenarios were direct product requests: scenario 1: a patient with an uncomplicated short-term headache; scenario 2: a patient with a severe, long-duration headache who takes paracetamol for too long and concurrently drinks alcohol. Scenario 3 was a symptom-based request: a patient asking for medicine for a headache. Pharmacy visits were audio recorded and scored according to predetermined criteria arranged in two categories: counselling content and manner of counselling. The acceptability of the methodology used was evaluated by surveying the participating pharmacists. Results The symptom-based request was scored significantly better (a mean 2.17 out of a possible 4 points) than the direct product requests (means of 1.64 and 0.67 out of a possible 4 points for scenario 1 and 2, respectively). The most common information provided was dosage and adverse effects. Only the symptom-based request stimulated spontaneous counselling. No statistically significant differences in the duration of the consultation between the scenarios were found. There were also no significant differences in the quality of counselling between the Masters of Pharmacy and Pharmacy Technicians. The acceptability of the SP method was not as high as in other countries. Conclusion The assessment of paracetamol-related counselling demonstrates room for practice improvement. PMID:23300691

Comparison of tablet-based strategies for incision planning in laser microsurgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoob, Andreas; Lekon, Stefan; Kundrat, Dennis; Kahrs, Lüder A.; Mattos, Leonardo S.; Ortmaier, Tobias

2015-03-01

Recent research has revealed that incision planning in laser surgery deploying stylus and tablet outperforms state-of-the-art micro-manipulator-based laser control. Providing more detailed quantitation regarding that approach, a comparative study of six tablet-based strategies for laser path planning is presented. Reference strategy is defined by monoscopic visualization and continuous path drawing on a graphics tablet. Further concepts deploying stereoscopic or a synthesized laser view, point-based path definition, real-time teleoperation or a pen display are compared with the reference scenario. Volunteers were asked to redraw and ablate stamped lines on a sample. Performance is assessed by measuring planning accuracy, completion time and ease of use. Results demonstrate that significant differences exist between proposed concepts. The reference strategy provides more accurate incision planning than the stereo or laser view scenario. Real-time teleoperation performs best with respect to completion time without indicating any significant deviation in accuracy and usability. Point-based planning as well as the pen display provide most accurate planning and increased ease of use compared to the reference strategy. As a result, combining the pen display approach with point-based planning has potential to become a powerful strategy because of benefiting from improved hand-eye-coordination on the one hand and from a simple but accurate technique for path definition on the other hand. These findings as well as the overall usability scale indicating high acceptance and consistence of proposed strategies motivate further advanced tablet-based planning in laser microsurgery.

Assessment of the potential future market in Sweden for hydrogen as an energy carrier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carleson, G.

Future hydrogen markets for the period 1980-2025 are projected, the probable range of hydrogen production costs for various manufacturing methods is estimated, and expected market shares in competition with alternative energy carriers are evaluated. A general scenario for economic and industrial development in Sweden for the given period was evaluated, showing the average increase in gross national product to become 1.6% per year. Three different energy scenarios were then developed: alternatives were based on nuclear energy, renewable indigenous energy sources, and the present energy situation with free access to imported natural or synthetic fuels. An analysis was made within each scenario of the competitiveness of hydrogen on both the demand and the supply of the following sectors: chemical industry, steel industry, peak power production, residential and commercial heating, and transportation. Costs were calculated for the production, storage and transmission of hydrogen according to technically feasible methods and were compared to those of alternative energy carriers. Health, environmental and societal implications were also considered. The market penetration of hydrogen in each sector was estimated, and the required investment capital was shown to be less than 4% of the national gross investment sum.

Implications of a class of grand unified theories for large scale structure in the universe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shafi, Q.; Stecker, F. W.

1983-01-01

A class of grand unified theories in which cosmologicaly significant axion and neutrino energy densities arise naturally is discussed. To obtain large scale structure three scenarios are considered: (1) an inflationary scenario; (2) inflation followed by string production; and (3) a non-inflationary scenario with density fluctuations caused solely by strings. Inflation may be compatible with the recent observational indications that mega 1 on the scale of superclusters, particularly if strings are present.

The formation of planetary systems during the evolution of close binary stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tutukov, A. V.

1991-08-01

Modern scenarios of the formation of planetary systems around single stars and products of merging close binaries are described. The frequencies of the realization of different scenarios in the Galaxy are estimated. It is concluded that the modern theory of the early stages of the evolution of single stars and the theory of the evolution of close binaries offer several possible versions for the origin of planetary systems, while the scenario dating back to Kant and Laplace remains the likeliest.

SUDOQU, a new dose-assessment methodology for radiological surface contamination.

PubMed

van Dillen, Teun; van Dijk, Arjan

2018-06-12

A new methodology has been developed for the assessment of the annual effective dose resulting from removable and fixed radiological surface contamination. It is entitled SUDOQU (SUrface DOse QUantification) and it can for instance be used to derive criteria for surface contamination related to the import of non-food consumer goods, containers and conveyances, e.g., limiting values and operational screening levels. SUDOQU imposes mass (activity)-balance equations based on radioactive decay, removal and deposition processes in indoor and outdoor environments. This leads to time-dependent contamination levels that may be of particular importance in exposure scenarios dealing with one or a few contaminated items only (usually public exposure scenarios, therefore referred to as the 'consumer' model). Exposure scenarios with a continuous flow of freshly contaminated goods also fall within the scope of the methodology (typically occupational exposure scenarios, thus referred to as the 'worker model'). In this paper we describe SUDOQU, its applications, and its current limitations. First, we delineate the contamination issue, present the assumptions and explain the concepts. We describe the relevant removal, transfer, and deposition processes, and derive equations for the time evolution of the radiological surface-, air- and skin-contamination levels. These are then input for the subsequent evaluation of the annual effective dose with possible contributions from external gamma radiation, inhalation, secondary ingestion (indirect, from hand to mouth), skin contamination, direct ingestion and skin-contact exposure. The limiting effective surface dose is introduced for issues involving the conservatism of dose calculations. SUDOQU can be used by radiation-protection scientists/experts and policy makers in the field of e.g. emergency preparedness, trade and transport, exemption and clearance, waste management, and nuclear facilities. Several practical examples are worked out demonstrating the potential applications of the methodology. . Creative Commons Attribution license.

Fuel Cycle Analysis Framework Base Cases for the IAEA/INPRO GAINS Collaborative Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brent Dixon

Thirteen countries participated in the Collaborative Project GAINS “Global Architecture of Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems Based on Thermal and Fast Reactors Including a Closed Fuel Cycle”, which was the primary activity within the IAEA/INPRO Program Area B: “Global Vision on Sustainable Nuclear Energy” for the last three years. The overall objective of GAINS was to develop a standard framework for assessing future nuclear energy systems taking into account sustainable development, and to validate results through sample analyses. This paper details the eight scenarios that constitute the GAINS framework base cases for analysis of the transition to future innovative nuclear energymore » systems. The framework base cases provide a reference for users of the framework to start from in developing and assessing their own alternate systems. Each base case is described along with performance results against the GAINS sustainability evaluation metrics. The eight cases include four using a moderate growth projection and four using a high growth projection for global nuclear electricity generation through 2100. The cases are divided into two sets, addressing homogeneous and heterogeneous scenarios developed by GAINS to model global fuel cycle strategies. The heterogeneous world scenario considers three separate nuclear groups based on their fuel cycle strategies, with non-synergistic and synergistic cases. The framework base case analyses results show the impact of these different fuel cycle strategies while providing references for future users of the GAINS framework. A large number of scenario alterations are possible and can be used to assess different strategies, different technologies, and different assumptions about possible futures of nuclear power. Results can be compared to the framework base cases to assess where these alternate cases perform differently versus the sustainability indicators.« less