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Sample records for prognostic scoring systems

  1. A scoring system for early prognostic assessment after neonatal seizures.

    PubMed

    Pisani, Francesco; Sisti, Lisa; Seri, Stefano

    2009-10-01

    The aim of this study was to devise a scoring system that could aid in predicting neurologic outcome at the onset of neonatal seizures. A total of 106 newborns who had neonatal seizures and were consecutively admitted to the NICU of the University of Parma from January 1999 through December 2004 were prospectively followed-up, and neurologic outcome was assessed at 24 months' postconceptional age. We conducted a retrospective analysis on this cohort to identify variables that were significantly related to adverse outcome and to develop a scoring system that could provide early prognostic indications. A total of 70 (66%) of 106 infants had an adverse neurologic outcome. Six variables were identified as the most important independent risk factors for adverse outcome and were used to construct a scoring system: birth weight, Apgar score at 1 minute, neurologic examination at seizure onset, cerebral ultrasound, efficacy of anticonvulsant therapy, and presence of neonatal status epilepticus. Each variable was scored from 0 to 3 to represent the range from "normal" to "severely abnormal." A total composite score was computed by addition of the raw scores of the 6 variables. This score ranged from 0 to 12. A cutoff score of > or =4 provided the greatest sensitivity and specificity. This scoring system may offer an easy, rapid, and reliable prognostic indicator of neurologic outcome after the onset of neonatal seizures. A final assessment of the validity of this score in routine clinical practice will require independent validation in other centers.

  2. A prognostic scoring system for arm exercise stress testing

    PubMed Central

    Xie, Yan; Xian, Hong; Chandiramani, Pooja; Bainter, Emily; Wan, Leping; Martin, Wade H

    2016-01-01

    Objective Arm exercise stress testing may be an equivalent or better predictor of mortality outcome than pharmacological stress imaging for the ≥50% for patients unable to perform leg exercise. Thus, our objective was to develop an arm exercise ECG stress test scoring system, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, for predicting outcome in these individuals. Methods In this retrospective observational cohort study, arm exercise ECG stress tests were performed in 443 consecutive veterans aged 64.1 (11.1) years. (mean (SD)) between 1997 and 2002. From multivariate Cox models, arm exercise scores were developed for prediction of 5-year and 12-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and 5-year cardiovascular mortality or myocardial infarction (MI). Results Arm exercise capacity in resting metabolic equivalents (METs), 1 min heart rate recovery (HRR) and ST segment depression ≥1 mm were the stress test variables independently associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality by step-wise Cox analysis (all p<0.01). A score based on the relation HRR (bpm)+7.3×METs−10.5×ST depression (0=no; 1=yes) prognosticated 5-year cardiovascular mortality with a C-statistic of 0.81 before and 0.88 after adjustment for significant demographic and clinical covariates. Arm exercise scores for the other outcome end points yielded C-statistic values of 0.77–0.79 before and 0.82–0.86 after adjustment for significant covariates versus 0.64–0.72 for best fit pharmacological myocardial perfusion imaging models in a cohort of 1730 veterans who were evaluated over the same time period. Conclusions Arm exercise scores, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, have good power for prediction of mortality or MI in patients who cannot perform leg exercise. PMID:26835142

  3. Prognostic staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma (CLIP score): its value and limitations, and a proposal for a new staging system, the Japan Integrated Staging Score (JIS score).

    PubMed

    Kudo, Masatoshi; Chung, Hobyung; Osaki, Yukio

    2003-01-01

    A clinical staging system for cancer patients provides guidance for patient assessment and making therapeutic decisions. It is useful in deciding whether to treat a patient aggressively, and in avoiding the overtreatment of patients who would not tolerate the treatment or patients whose life expectancy rules out any chance of treatment. Clinical staging is also an essential tool for comparison between groups in therapeutic trials and for comparison between different studies. The current classifications most commonly used for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are the Okuda stages, the Child-Pugh staging system, tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging, and the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score. Among these, the CLIP score is currently the most commonly used integrated staging score, including both tumor stage and liver disease stage. Although the CLIP score has been well validated by many authors in terms of its prognostic value in HCC patients, this score has some problems and limitations when applied to currently diagnosed HCC patients, who are diagnosed in the early stage of disease. First, the CLIP score can discriminate score 0- to 3-patient populations, but it is not able to discriminate score 4- to 6-patient groups. Second, the definition of tumor morphology in the best prognostic group is too advanced, i.e., uninodular and a tumor extent of less than 50% of the liver. As a result, the prognosis of the CLIP system best prognostic group is not so good. In other words, this system cannot identify the best prognostic group who would benefit from curative and aggressive treatment. Third, nearly 80% of the patient population is classified as having a CLIP score of 0-2, as confirmed by many studies, which shows poor stratification ability. In contrast, a new staging system based on the Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan (LCSGJ), the Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) score is currently proposed in Japan. This staging system combines Child-Pugh grade (grade A

  4. Evaluation of prognostic factors and establishment of a prognostic scoring system for canine primary immune-mediated hemolytic anemia.

    PubMed

    Ishihara, Masahiro; Fujino, Yasuhito; Setoguchi, Asuka; Takahashi, Masashi; Nakashima, Ko; Ohno, Koichi; Tsujimoto, Hajime

    2010-04-01

    Clinical courses of primary immune-mediated hemolytic anemia (pIMHA) in dogs are highly variable, however, limited information is available to predict their accurate prognoses. To evaluate the prognostic significance of clinical factors and to propose a scoring system to predict prognoses, the medical records of seventy-one dogs with pIMHA were reviewed. Overall mortality rate of dogs with pIMHA was 39% and most of the dogs died within 3 months from diagnosis. Sex, body weight, seasonality, packed corpuscular volume (PCV), platelet count (PLT), total plasma protein (TP), blood urea nitrogen, albumin, total bilirubin, sodium ion, prothrombin time, and fibrin/fibrinogen degradation products before immunosuppressive treatment can influence on survival time in dogs with pIMHA. A prognostic scoring system using a combination of sex, seasonality, PCV, PLT and TP can be statistically significant for raising the accuracy of prognostic prediction. Using the scoring system for prognostication in dogs with pIMHA may enable veterinarians to predict a prognosis easily and accurately.

  5. A prognostic scoring system for locoregional control in nasopharyngeal carcinoma following conformal radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Cheng, S.H.; Tsai, S.Y.; Horng, C.-F.; Yen, K.L.; Jian, James J.; Chan, Kwan-Yee; Lin, C.-Y.; Terng, S.-D.; Tsou, M.-H.; Chu, N.-M.; Chen, H.-H.; Hsieh, C.-I.; Tan, T.-D.; Chen, P.-L.; Chung, Y.L.; Huang, Andrew T. |

    2006-11-15

    Purpose: This study established a prognostic scoring system for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), which estimates the probability of locoregional (LR) control following definitive conformal radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Patients with nondisseminated NPC at initial presentation (n = 630) were enrolled in this study. All patients had magnetic resonance imaging of the head and neck and were treated with conformal radiotherapy. Among them, 93% had concurrent chemotherapy, and 76% had postradiation chemotherapy. The extent of the primary tumor, age at diagnosis, primary tumor size, tumor and nodal classification, histology, and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level before treatment were included in the analysis for building a prognostic scoring system. The end point for this study was LR control. Results: The prognostic score was defined as the number of adverse prognostic factors present at diagnosis. Four factors had similarly independent prognostic effects (hazard ratio, 2.0-2.6): age >40 years, histologic WHO type I-II, serum LDH level {>=}410 U/L, and involvement of two or more sites of the following anatomic structures, i.e., sphenoid floor, clivus marrow, clivus cortex, prevertebral muscles, and petrous bone. The score predicted the 5-year probability of LR control as follows: 0 (15% of the patients), 100%; 1 (42% of the patients), 93%; 2 (29% of the patients), 83%; 3 or higher (13% of the patients), 71%. Conclusion: This scoring system is useful in the decision-making for individual patients and the design of clinical trials to improve LR control for advanced-stage NPC.

  6. Comparison of three prognostic scoring systems in a series of 146 cases of chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML): MD Anderson prognostic score (MDAPS), CMML-specific prognostic scoring system (CPSS) and Mayo prognostic model. A detailed review of prognostic factors in CMML.

    PubMed

    Calvo, Xavier; Nomdedeu, Meritxell; Santacruz, Rodrigo; Martínez, Núria; Costa, Dolors; Pereira, Arturo; Estrada, Natalia; Xicoy, Blanca; Esteve, Jordi; Nomdedeu, Benet

    2015-07-23

    Although specific prognostic models for chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) exist, few are based on large series of patients. MD Anderson prognostic score (MDAPS) has been the most useful for CMML risk assessment. Due to recent emergence of CMML-specific prognostic scoring system (CPSS) and Mayo prognostic model, we compared the three scores. One hundred forty-six CMML patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2014 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate analysis was performed to assess prognostic impact on overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) of the variables composing the scores and all items showed prognostic value on OS with the exception of the presence of circulating immature myeloid cells. Regarding LFS, only CPSS variables, bone marrow blast ≥10% and an absolute monocyte count >10×10(9)/L had an impact. When the scores were applied, all showed an impact on OS and retained their significance in multivariate analysis. By using ROC curves and C-index, CPSS showed a slightly better predictive value for mortality and leukemia transformation. Variables composing the three indexes were compared in multivariate analysis and only CPSS parameters and platelets<100×10(9)/L retained their significance. Based on these findings, by adding platelet count to CPSS, a new score was implemented (CPSS-P) showing the best risk prediction capability in our series. This study reinforces the validity of the tested scores.

  7. Evaluation of prognostic scoring systems for bone metastases using single-center data.

    PubMed

    Shimada, Hirofumi; Setoguchi, Takao; Nakamura, Shunsuke; Yokouchi, Masahiro; Ishidou, Yasuhiro; Tominaga, Hiroyuki; Kawamura, Ichiro; Nagano, Satoshi; Komiya, Setsuro

    2015-11-01

    Recent progress in cancer treatment has improved patient survival, but has increased the number of patients with metastatic bone tumors. Data were collected from all bone metastasis patients at Kagoshima University, where almost all patients with metastatic bone tumors who reside in Kagoshima province are treated surgically. The scoring systems used in bone metastasis patients were then evaluated to identify those most suitable for our patients. Clinical data were collected from 145 patients with bone metastases. The patients were assigned prognostic scores based on four scoring systems, namely those described by the Ratasvuori, Mizumoto, Tokuhashi and Katagiri groups. Statistical examinations were performed to assess patient distribution regarding prognostic factors and the four data sets reported in the literature. The patient distributions for all prognostic factors were significantly different between the Scandinavian Sarcoma Group (SSG) and Kagoshima data. The distributions of patients for 3 of 5 and for 5 of 7 prognostic factors were statistically different between the Kagoshima data and the Katagiri and Tokuhashi data, respectively. Additionally, the distribution of patients in each scoring group was statistically different between the Kagoshima data and the Katagiri, Tokuhashi and Mizumoto data. The predictions of prognosis were significantly different between the results of each group and ours. The Tokuhashi scoring system detected the highest survival at 6 months (88.8%) in the Kagoshima data. Patients with a life expectancy of >6 months benefited from tumor excision and reconstruction. These findings suggest that the Tokuhashi scoring system is the most suitable for identifying patients who should be assessed for curative surgical intervention. SSG scoring, however, was suitable for identifying patients expected to survive for <6 months (91.3%). Prior to selecting a scoring system to predict prognosis, it is important to determine which scoring system is

  8. Evaluation of prognostic scoring systems for bone metastases using single-center data

    PubMed Central

    SHIMADA, HIROFUMI; SETOGUCHI, TAKAO; NAKAMURA, SHUNSUKE; YOKOUCHI, MASAHIRO; ISHIDOU, YASUHIRO; TOMINAGA, HIROYUKI; KAWAMURA, ICHIRO; NAGANO, SATOSHI; KOMIYA, SETSURO

    2015-01-01

    Recent progress in cancer treatment has improved patient survival, but has increased the number of patients with metastatic bone tumors. Data were collected from all bone metastasis patients at Kagoshima University, where almost all patients with metastatic bone tumors who reside in Kagoshima province are treated surgically. The scoring systems used in bone metastasis patients were then evaluated to identify those most suitable for our patients. Clinical data were collected from 145 patients with bone metastases. The patients were assigned prognostic scores based on four scoring systems, namely those described by the Ratasvuori, Mizumoto, Tokuhashi and Katagiri groups. Statistical examinations were performed to assess patient distribution regarding prognostic factors and the four data sets reported in the literature. The patient distributions for all prognostic factors were significantly different between the Scandinavian Sarcoma Group (SSG) and Kagoshima data. The distributions of patients for 3 of 5 and for 5 of 7 prognostic factors were statistically different between the Kagoshima data and the Katagiri and Tokuhashi data, respectively. Additionally, the distribution of patients in each scoring group was statistically different between the Kagoshima data and the Katagiri, Tokuhashi and Mizumoto data. The predictions of prognosis were significantly different between the results of each group and ours. The Tokuhashi scoring system detected the highest survival at 6 months (88.8%) in the Kagoshima data. Patients with a life expectancy of >6 months benefited from tumor excision and reconstruction. These findings suggest that the Tokuhashi scoring system is the most suitable for identifying patients who should be assessed for curative surgical intervention. SSG scoring, however, was suitable for identifying patients expected to survive for <6 months (91.3%). Prior to selecting a scoring system to predict prognosis, it is important to determine which scoring system is

  9. A novel gene expression-based prognostic scoring system to predict survival in gastric cancer

    DOE PAGES

    Wang, Pin; Wang, Yunshan; Hang, Bo; ...

    2016-07-11

    Analysis of gene expression patterns in gastric cancer (GC) can help to identify a comprehensive panel of gene biomarkers for predicting clinical outcomes and to discover potential new therapeutic targets. Here, a multi-step bioinformatics analytic approach was developed to establish a novel prognostic scoring system for GC. We first identified 276 genes that were robustly differentially expressed between normal and GC tissues, of which, 249 were found to be significantly associated with overall survival (OS) by univariate Cox regression analysis. The biological functions of 249 genes are related to cell cycle, RNA/ncRNA process, acetylation and extracellular matrix organization. A networkmore » was generated for view of the gene expression architecture of 249 genes in 265 GCs. Finally, we applied a canonical discriminant analysis approach to identify a 53-gene signature and a prognostic scoring system was established based on a canonical discriminant function of 53 genes. The prognostic scores strongly predicted patients with GC to have either a poor or good OS. Our study raises the prospect that the practicality of GC patient prognosis can be assessed by this prognostic scoring system.« less

  10. A novel gene expression-based prognostic scoring system to predict survival in gastric cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Pin; Wang, Yunshan; Hang, Bo; Zou, Xiaoping; Mao, Jian-Hua

    2016-07-11

    Analysis of gene expression patterns in gastric cancer (GC) can help to identify a comprehensive panel of gene biomarkers for predicting clinical outcomes and to discover potential new therapeutic targets. Here, a multi-step bioinformatics analytic approach was developed to establish a novel prognostic scoring system for GC. We first identified 276 genes that were robustly differentially expressed between normal and GC tissues, of which, 249 were found to be significantly associated with overall survival (OS) by univariate Cox regression analysis. The biological functions of 249 genes are related to cell cycle, RNA/ncRNA process, acetylation and extracellular matrix organization. A network was generated for view of the gene expression architecture of 249 genes in 265 GCs. Finally, we applied a canonical discriminant analysis approach to identify a 53-gene signature and a prognostic scoring system was established based on a canonical discriminant function of 53 genes. The prognostic scores strongly predicted patients with GC to have either a poor or good OS. Our study raises the prospect that the practicality of GC patient prognosis can be assessed by this prognostic scoring system.

  11. A novel gene expression-based prognostic scoring system to predict survival in gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Hang, Bo; Zou, Xiaoping; Mao, Jian-Hua

    2016-01-01

    Analysis of gene expression patterns in gastric cancer (GC) can help to identify a comprehensive panel of gene biomarkers for predicting clinical outcomes and to discover potential new therapeutic targets. Here, a multi-step bioinformatics analytic approach was developed to establish a novel prognostic scoring system for GC. We first identified 276 genes that were robustly differentially expressed between normal and GC tissues, of which, 249 were found to be significantly associated with overall survival (OS) by univariate Cox regression analysis. The biological functions of 249 genes are related to cell cycle, RNA/ncRNA process, acetylation and extracellular matrix organization. A network was generated for view of the gene expression architecture of 249 genes in 265 GCs. Finally, we applied a canonical discriminant analysis approach to identify a 53-gene signature and a prognostic scoring system was established based on a canonical discriminant function of 53 genes. The prognostic scores strongly predicted patients with GC to have either a poor or good OS. Our study raises the prospect that the practicality of GC patient prognosis can be assessed by this prognostic scoring system. PMID:27419373

  12. Prognostic Gleason grade grouping: data based on the modified Gleason scoring system

    PubMed Central

    Pierorazio, Phillip M.; Walsh, Patrick C.; Partin, Alan W.; Epstein, Jonathan I.

    2014-01-01

    Objective • To investigate pathological and short-term outcomes since the most recent Gleason system modifications by the International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) in an attempt to divide the current Gleason grading system into prognostically accurate Gleason grade groups. Patients and Methods • We queried the Johns Hopkins Radical Prostatectomy Database (1982–2011), approved by the institutional review board, for men undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP) without a tertiary pattern since 2004 and identified 7869 men. • Multivariable models were created using preoperative and postoperative variables; prognostic grade group (Gleason grade ≤6; 3 + 4; 4 + 3; 8; 9–10) was among the strongest predictors of biochemical recurrence-free (BFS) survival. Results • Significant differences were noted among the Gleason grade groups at biopsy; differences were noted in the race, PSA level, clinical stage, number of positive cores at biopsy and the maximum percentage of positive cores among the Gleason grade groups at RP. • With a median (range) follow-up of 2 (1–7) years, 5-year BFS rates for men with Gleason grade ≤6, 3 + 4, 4 + 3, 8 and 9–10 tumours at biopsy were 94.6, 82.7, 65.1, 63.1 and 34.5%, respectively (P < 0.001 for trend); and 96.6, 88.1, 69.7, 63.7 and 34.5%, respectively (P < 0.001), based on RP pathology. Conclusions • The 2005 ISUP modifications to the Gleason grading system for prostate carcinoma accurately categorize patients by pathological findings and short-term biochemical outcomes but, while retaining the essence of the Gleason system, there is a need for a change in its reporting to more closely reflect tumour behaviour. • We propose reporting Gleason grades, including prognostic grade groups which accurately reflect prognosis as follows: Gleason score ≤6 (prognostic grade group I); Gleason score 3+4=7 (prognostic grade group II); Gleason score 4+3=7 (prognostic grade group III); Gleason score 4+4=8 (prognostic grade

  13. New prognostic factors and scoring system for patients with skeletal metastasis.

    PubMed

    Katagiri, Hirohisa; Okada, Rieko; Takagi, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Mitsuru; Murata, Hideki; Harada, Hideyuki; Nishimura, Tetsuo; Asakura, Hirofumi; Ogawa, Hirofumi

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this study was to update a previous scoring system for patients with skeletal metastases, that was proposed by Katagiri et al. in 2005, by introducing a new factor (laboratory data) and analyzing a new patient cohort. Between January 2005 and January 2008, we treated 808 patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases. They were prospectively registered regardless of their treatments, and the last follow-up evaluation was performed in 2012. There were 441 male and 367 female patients with a median age of 64 years. Of these patients, 749 were treated nonsurgically while the remaining 59 underwent surgery for skeletal metastasis. A multivariate analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified six significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the primary lesion, visceral or cerebral metastases, abnormal laboratory data, poor performance status, previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The first three factors had a larger impact than the remaining three. The prognostic score was calculated by adding together all the scores for individual factors. With a prognostic score of ≥7, the survival rate was 27% at 6 months, and only 6% at 1 year. In contrast, patients with a prognostic score of ≤3 had a survival rate of 91% at 1 year, and 78% at 2 years. Comparing the revised system with the previous one, there was a significantly lower number of wrongly predicted patients using the revised system. This revised scoring system was able to predict the survival rates of patients with skeletal metastases more accurately than the previous system and may be useful for selecting an optimal treatment. © 2014 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. New prognostic factors and scoring system for patients with skeletal metastasis

    PubMed Central

    Katagiri, Hirohisa; Okada, Rieko; Takagi, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Mitsuru; Murata, Hideki; Harada, Hideyuki; Nishimura, Tetsuo; Asakura, Hirofumi; Ogawa, Hirofumi

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to update a previous scoring system for patients with skeletal metastases, that was proposed by Katagiri et al. in 2005, by introducing a new factor (laboratory data) and analyzing a new patient cohort. Between January 2005 and January 2008, we treated 808 patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases. They were prospectively registered regardless of their treatments, and the last follow-up evaluation was performed in 2012. There were 441 male and 367 female patients with a median age of 64 years. Of these patients, 749 were treated nonsurgically while the remaining 59 underwent surgery for skeletal metastasis. A multivariate analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model. We identified six significant prognostic factors for survival, namely, the primary lesion, visceral or cerebral metastases, abnormal laboratory data, poor performance status, previous chemotherapy, and multiple skeletal metastases. The first three factors had a larger impact than the remaining three. The prognostic score was calculated by adding together all the scores for individual factors. With a prognostic score of ≥7, the survival rate was 27% at 6 months, and only 6% at 1 year. In contrast, patients with a prognostic score of ≤3 had a survival rate of 91% at 1 year, and 78% at 2 years. Comparing the revised system with the previous one, there was a significantly lower number of wrongly predicted patients using the revised system. This revised scoring system was able to predict the survival rates of patients with skeletal metastases more accurately than the previous system and may be useful for selecting an optimal treatment. PMID:25044999

  15. Prognostic scoring system for peripheral nerve repair in the upper extremity.

    PubMed

    Galanakos, Spyridon P; Zoubos, Aristides B; Mourouzis, Iordanis; Ignatiadis, Ioannis; Bot, Arjan G J; Soucacos, Panayotis N

    2013-02-01

    So far, predictive models with individualized estimates of prognosis for patients with peripheral nerve injuries are lacking. Our group has previously shown the prognostic value of a standardized scoring system by examining the functional outcome after acute, sharp complete laceration and repair of median and/or ulnar nerves at various levels in the forearm. In the present study, we further explore the potential mathematical model in order to devise an effective prognostic scoring system. We retrospectively collected medical record data of 73 cases with a peripheral nerve injury in the upper extremity in order to estimate which patients would return to work, and what time was necessary to return to the pre-injury work. Postoperative assessment followed the protocol described by Rosén and Lundborg. We found that return to pre-injury work can be predicted with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (95%) using the total numerical score of the Rosén and Lundborg protocol at the third follow-up interval (TS3) as well as the difference between the TS3 and the total score at second follow-up interval (TS2). In addition, the factors age and type of injured nerve (median, ulnar, or combined) can determine the time of return to work based on a mathematical model. This prognostic protocol can be a useful tool to provide information about the functional and social prospects of the patients with these types of injuries.

  16. Validation of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System in treated patients with myelodysplastic syndromes

    PubMed Central

    Mishra, Asmita; Corrales-Yepez, Maria; Ali, Najla Al; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed; Padron, Eric; Zhang, Ling; Epling-Burnette, Pearlie K.; Pinilla-Ibarz, Javier; Lancet, Jeffrey E.; List, Alan F.; Komrokji, Rami S.

    2015-01-01

    The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) was recently revised (IPSS-R) under the auspices of the MDS Foundation as a collaborative international effort to refine its prognostic power. Our purpose was to externally validate this new risk model using a large single-institution cohort, determine its prognostic power in patients receiving active treatment, and explore its utility in guiding therapeutic decisions. Data were collected retrospectively from our myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) database and verified by chart review. Of the data available for 1,088 patients, 152 (14%), 353 (32%), 237 (22%), 190 (18%), and 156 (14%) patients were classified as very low, low, intermediate, high, and very high risk, respectively, with median overall survival (OS) of 90 (95%CI 71–109), 54 (95%CI 50–59), 34 (95%CI 26–43), 21 (95%CI 17–25), and 13 months (95%CI 11– 15), respectively (P < 0.005). We found that the IPSS-R further refined prognostic discrimination in all IPSS risk categories, particularly in the intermediate 1 and 2 groups. Among high and very high IPSS-R patients receiving azacitidine, OS was significantly improved versus patients not receiving azacitidine, with corresponding median OS of 25 versus 18 months (P = 0.028) and 15 versus 9 months (P = 0.005), respectively. Similarly, patients with IPSS-R high- and very high-risk disease who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation had significantly improved OS versus nontransplant approaches (P < 0.005). High and very high IPSS-R patients derived a survival advantage from disease-modifying therapies. Our data validate the prognostic value of the proposed IPSS-R and show that its refined IPSS prognostic discrimination can be applied to actively treated patients. PMID:23605934

  17. Prognostication and intensive care unit outcome: the evolving role of scoring systems.

    PubMed

    Herridge, Margaret S

    2003-12-01

    Prognostic scoring systems remain important in clinical practice. They enable us to characterize our patient populations with robust measures for predicted mortality. This allows us to audit our own experience in the context of institutional quality control measures and facilitates, albeit imperfectly, comparisons across units and patient populations. Practically, they provide an objective means to characterize case-mix and this helps to quantify resource needs when negotiating with hospital administrators for funding. Prognostic scores also help to stratify patient populations for research purposes. To be used accurately and effectively, one must have a good understanding of the limitations that are intrinsic to these prognostic systems. It is important to understand the details of their derivation and validation. The population of patients that is used to develop the models may not be relevant to your patient population. The model may have been derived several years before and may no longer reflect current practice patterns and treatment. These models may become obsolete over time. As with all scoring systems, there are potential problems with misclassification and more serious, systematic error, in data collection. One needs to rigorously adhere to guidelines about how these data are to be collected and processed; the persons who collect the data require regular updates and ongoing training. In their current form, the systems should not be used to prognosticate in individual patients, nor should they be used to define medical futility. The prognostic models should be viewed as being in evolution. Many patient and ICU characteristics that seem to have an important impact on mortality have yet to be incorporated into any of the current models. As an example, these may include the genetic characteristics of the patients and the ICU's organizational structure and process of care [51, 52]. Because the organ dysfunction measures are able to be obtained daily they give

  18. Risk factors and scoring system as a prognostic tool for epilepsy after neonatal seizures.

    PubMed

    Soltirovska-Salamon, Aneta; Neubauer, David; Petrovcic, Andraz; Paro-Panjan, Darja

    2014-01-01

    Neonatal seizures may cause irreversible changes to the immature brain and. A scoring system for early prognostic information could be a useful clinical tool. The aim of the study was to analyze risk factors for epilepsy after neonatal seizures, to validate Garfinkle's scoring system, and to analyze whether a new scoring system is feasible. A retrospective study of 176 newborns (59.1% boys, 40.9% girls, 70.5% term, 29.5% preterm; mean birth weight 2820 g), admitted to the Department of Neonatology, Division of Pediatrics, University Medical Centre, Ljubljana, because of neonatal seizures (clinical and/or neurophysiological), was performed. Epilepsy rate between 2 and 12 years of follow-up was 18.1%. Five independent predictors from Garfinkle's study and other known predictors were entered into hierarchical binary logistic regression models and analyzed through four steps to identify independent predictors of epilepsy. We tested whether any of the predictors was an effect modifier. Of five potential predictors from Garfinkle's score, electroencephalograph background findings and etiology were predictive. Etiologies, gestation, mode of delivery, duration of seizures, and other risk factors at birth were found to be independent predictors. Duration of seizures has a different effect on prognosis depending on the gestational age. Gestational age determines the association between duration of seizures and epilepsy. Scoring systems to predict development of epilepsy after neonatal seizures need to limit interaction between important predictor variables. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. A clinical prognostic scoring system for Guillain-Barré syndrome.

    PubMed

    van Koningsveld, Rinske; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Hughes, Richard A C; Swan, Anthony V; van Doorn, Pieter A; Jacobs, Bart C

    2007-07-01

    Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an acute post-infectious immune-mediated peripheral neuropathy with a highly variable clinical course and outcome. We aimed to develop and validate a scoring system based on clinical characteristics in the acute phase of GBS to predict outcome at 6 months. We studied patients with GBS who were unable to walk independently. A derivation set included 388 patients from two randomised controlled trials and one pilot study. Potential predictors were assessed for their association with the inability to walk independently at 6 months. A simple clinical scoring system was developed on the basis of regression coefficients of predictors in a multivariable logistic regression model. Model performance was quantified with respect to discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristics curve, AUC) and calibration (graphically). We validated our scoring system in a set of 374 patients from another randomised trial. We included three variables that were predictive of poor outcome at 6 months in our model: age, preceding diarrhoea, and GBS disability score at 2 weeks after entry. Scores ranged from 1 to 7, with three categories for age, two for diarrhoea, and five for GBS disability score at 2 weeks. Predictions corresponding to these prognostic scores ranged from 1% to 83% for the inability to walk independently at 6 months. Predictions agreed well with observed outcome frequencies (adequate calibration) and showed a very good discriminative ability (AUC 0.85) in both data sets. A simple scoring system for patients with GBS, based on three clinical characteristics, accurately predicts outcome at 6 months. The system could be used to counsel individual patients and identify high-risk groups to guide future trials.

  20. Prognostic factors for mortality in left colonic peritonitis: a new scoring system.

    PubMed

    Biondo, S; Ramos, E; Deiros, M; Ragué, J M; De Oca, J; Moreno, P; Farran, L; Jaurrieta, E

    2000-12-01

    Perforating lesions of the colon affect a heterogeneous group of patients, often elderly, and usually present as abdominal emergencies, with high morbidity and mortality. The aims of this study were to assess the prognostic value of specific factors in patients with left colonic peritonitis and to evaluate the utility of a scoring method that allows one to define groups of patients with different mortality risks. Between January 1994 and December 1999, 156 patients (77 men and 79 women), with a mean (SD) age of 63.2 years (15.5 years) (range 22 to 87 years), underwent emergency operation for a distal colonic perforation. Intraoperative colonic lavage was the first choice operation and it was performed in 74 patients (47.4%). There were three alternative procedures: the Hartmann operation was performed in 69 patients (44.2%), subtotal colectomy in 9, and colostomy in 4 patients. We analyzed specific variables for their possible relation to death including gender, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, immunocompromised status, etiology, and degree of peritonitis, preoperative organ failure, time (hours) between hospital admission and surgical intervention, and degree of temperature elevation (38 degrees C). Univariate relations between predictors and outcomes (death) were analyzed using logistic regression. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the prognostic value of combinations of the variables. Significant factors identified in univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to define a left colonic Peritonitis Severity Score (PSS). Factors that were significant only in univariate analysis scored 2 points if present and 1 if not. Variables significant in multivariate analysis were scored from 1 to 3 points. Patients were randomly split into two groups, one to calculate the scoring system and the other to validate it. Overall postoperative mortality rate was 22.4%. Septic-related mortality was observed in

  1. Scoring System Prognostic of Outcome in Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Myelodysplastic Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Ahn, Kwang Woo; Hu, Zhen-Huan; Nishihori, Taiga; Malone, Adriana K.; Valcárcel, David; Grunwald, Michael R.; Bacher, Ulrike; Hamilton, Betty; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A.; Saad, Ayman; Cutler, Corey; Warlick, Erica; Reshef, Ran; Wirk, Baldeep Mona; Sabloff, Mitchell; Fasan, Omotayo; Gerds, Aaron; Marks, David; Olsson, Richard; Wood, William Allen; Costa, Luciano J.; Miller, Alan M.; Cortes, Jorge; Daly, Andrew; Kindwall-Keller, Tamila L.; Kamble, Rammurti; Rizzieri, David A.; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Gale, Robert Peter; William, Basem; Litzow, Mark; Wiernik, Peter H.; Liesveld, Jane; Savani, Bipin N.; Vij, Ravi; Ustun, Celalettin; Copelan, Edward; Popat, Uday; Kalaycio, Matt; Maziarz, Richard; Alyea, Edwin; Sobecks, Ron; Pavletic, Steven; Tallman, Martin; Saber, Wael

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To develop a system prognostic of outcome in those undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo HCT) for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Patients and Methods We examined 2,133 patients with MDS undergoing HLA-matched (n = 1,728) or -mismatched (n = 405) allo HCT from 2000 to 2012. We used a Cox multivariable model to identify factors prognostic of mortality in a training subset (n = 1,151) of the HLA-matched cohort. A weighted score using these factors was assigned to the remaining patients undergoing HLA-matched allo HCT (validation cohort; n = 577) as well as to patients undergoing HLA-mismatched allo HCT. Results Blood blasts greater than 3% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.41; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.85), platelets 50 × 109/L or less at transplantation (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.61), Karnofsky performance status less than 90% (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.28), comprehensive cytogenetic risk score of poor or very poor (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.80), and age 30 to 49 years (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.35) were associated with increased hazard of death and assigned 1 point in the scoring system. Monosomal karyotype (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.65 to 2.45) and age 50 years or older (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.36 to 2.83) were assigned 2 points. The 3-year overall survival after transplantation in patients with low (0 to 1 points), intermediate (2 to 3), high (4 to 5) and very high (≥ 6) scores was 71% (95% CI, 58% to 85%), 49% (95% CI, 42% to 56%), 41% (95% CI, 31% to 51%), and 25% (95% CI, 4% to 46%), respectively (P < .001). Increasing score was predictive of increased relapse (P < .001) and treatment-related mortality (P < .001) in the HLA-matched set and relapse (P < .001) in the HLA-mismatched cohort. Conclusion The proposed system is prognostic of outcome in patients undergoing HLA-matched and -mismatched allo HCT for MDS. PMID:27044940

  2. Scoring System Prognostic of Outcome in Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Myelodysplastic Syndrome.

    PubMed

    Shaffer, Brian C; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Hu, Zhen-Huan; Nishihori, Taiga; Malone, Adriana K; Valcárcel, David; Grunwald, Michael R; Bacher, Ulrike; Hamilton, Betty; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A; Saad, Ayman; Cutler, Corey; Warlick, Erica; Reshef, Ran; Wirk, Baldeep Mona; Sabloff, Mitchell; Fasan, Omotayo; Gerds, Aaron; Marks, David; Olsson, Richard; Wood, William Allen; Costa, Luciano J; Miller, Alan M; Cortes, Jorge; Daly, Andrew; Kindwall-Keller, Tamila L; Kamble, Rammurti; Rizzieri, David A; Cahn, Jean-Yves; Gale, Robert Peter; William, Basem; Litzow, Mark; Wiernik, Peter H; Liesveld, Jane; Savani, Bipin N; Vij, Ravi; Ustun, Celalettin; Copelan, Edward; Popat, Uday; Kalaycio, Matt; Maziarz, Richard; Alyea, Edwin; Sobecks, Ron; Pavletic, Steven; Tallman, Martin; Saber, Wael

    2016-06-01

    To develop a system prognostic of outcome in those undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo HCT) for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). We examined 2,133 patients with MDS undergoing HLA-matched (n = 1,728) or -mismatched (n = 405) allo HCT from 2000 to 2012. We used a Cox multivariable model to identify factors prognostic of mortality in a training subset (n = 1,151) of the HLA-matched cohort. A weighted score using these factors was assigned to the remaining patients undergoing HLA-matched allo HCT (validation cohort; n = 577) as well as to patients undergoing HLA-mismatched allo HCT. Blood blasts greater than 3% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.41; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.85), platelets 50 × 10(9)/L or less at transplantation (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.61), Karnofsky performance status less than 90% (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.28), comprehensive cytogenetic risk score of poor or very poor (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.80), and age 30 to 49 years (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.35) were associated with increased hazard of death and assigned 1 point in the scoring system. Monosomal karyotype (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.65 to 2.45) and age 50 years or older (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.36 to 2.83) were assigned 2 points. The 3-year overall survival after transplantation in patients with low (0 to 1 points), intermediate (2 to 3), high (4 to 5) and very high (≥ 6) scores was 71% (95% CI, 58% to 85%), 49% (95% CI, 42% to 56%), 41% (95% CI, 31% to 51%), and 25% (95% CI, 4% to 46%), respectively (P < .001). Increasing score was predictive of increased relapse (P < .001) and treatment-related mortality (P < .001) in the HLA-matched set and relapse (P < .001) in the HLA-mismatched cohort. The proposed system is prognostic of outcome in patients undergoing HLA-matched and -mismatched allo HCT for MDS. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  3. Usefulness of staging systems and prognostic scores for hepatocellular carcinoma treatments

    PubMed Central

    Adhoute, Xavier; Penaranda, Guillaume; Raoul, Jean Luc; Le Treut, Patrice; Bollon, Emilie; Hardwigsen, Jean; Castellani, Paul; Perrier, Hervé; Bourlière, Marc

    2016-01-01

    Therapeutic management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is quite complex owing to the underlying cirrhosis and portal vein hypertension. Different scores or classification systems based on liver function and tumoral stages have been published in the recent years. If none of them is currently “universally” recognized, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has become the reference classification system in Western countries. Based on a robust treatment algorithm associated with stage stratification, it relies on a high level of evidence. However, BCLC stage B and C HCC include a broad spectrum of tumors but are only matched with a single therapeutic option. Some experts have thus suggested to extend the indications for surgery or for transarterial chemoembolization. In clinical practice, many patients are already treated beyond the scope of recommendations. Additional alternative prognostic scores that could be applied to any therapeutic modality have been recently proposed. They could represent complementary tools to the BCLC staging system and improve the stratification of HCC patients enrolled in clinical trials, as illustrated by the NIACE score. Prospective studies are needed to compare these scores and refine their role in the decision making process. PMID:27330679

  4. Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) predicts survival and leukemic evolution of myelodysplastic syndromes significantly better than IPSS and WHO Prognostic Scoring System: validation by the Gruppo Romano Mielodisplasie Italian Regional Database.

    PubMed

    Voso, Maria Teresa; Fenu, Susanna; Latagliata, Roberto; Buccisano, Francesco; Piciocchi, Alfonso; Aloe-Spiriti, Maria Antonietta; Breccia, Massimo; Criscuolo, Marianna; Andriani, Alessandro; Mancini, Stefano; Niscola, Pasquale; Naso, Virginia; Nobile, Carolina; Piccioni, Anna Lina; D'Andrea, Mariella; D'Addosio, Ada; Leone, Giuseppe; Venditti, Adriano

    2013-07-20

    The definition of disease-specific prognostic scores plays a fundamental role in the treatment decision-making process in myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), a group of myeloid disorders characterized by a heterogeneous clinical behavior. We applied the recently published Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) to 380 patients with MDS, registered in an Italian regional database, recruiting patients from the city of Rome (Gruppo Romano Mielodisplasie). Patients were selected based on the availability of IPSS-R prognostic factors, including complete peripheral-blood and bone marrow counts, informative cytogenetics, and follow-up data. We validated the IPSS-R score as a significant predictor of overall survival (OS) and leukemia-free survival (LFS) in MDS (P < .001 for both). When comparing the prognostic value of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), WHO Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS), and IPSS-R, using the Cox regression model and the likelihood ratio test, a significantly higher predictive power for LFS and OS became evident for the IPSS-R, compared with the IPSS and WPSS (P < .001 for both). The multivariate analysis, including IPSS, WPSS, age, lactate dehydrogenase, ferritin concentration, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, transfusion dependency, and type of therapy, confirmed the significant prognostic value of IPSS-R subgroups for LFS and OS. Treatment with lenalidomide and erythropoiesis-stimulating agents was shown to be an independent predictor of survival in the multivariate analysis. Our data confirm that the IPSS-R is an excellent prognostic tool in MDS in the era of disease-modifying treatments. The early recognition of patients at high risk of progression to aggressive disease may optimize treatment timing in MDS.

  5. A magnetic resonance imaging-based prognostic scoring system to predict outcome in transplant-eligible patients with multiple myeloma.

    PubMed

    Mai, Elias K; Hielscher, Thomas; Kloth, Jost K; Merz, Maximilian; Shah, Sofia; Raab, Marc S; Hillengass, Michaela; Wagner, Barbara; Jauch, Anna; Hose, Dirk; Weber, Marc-André; Delorme, Stefan; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Hillengass, Jens

    2015-06-01

    Diffuse and focal bone marrow infiltration patterns detected by magnetic resonance imaging have been shown to be of prognostic significance in all stages of monoclonal plasma cell disorders and have, therefore, been incorporated into the definition of the disease. The aim of this retrospective analysis was to develop a rapidly evaluable prognostic scoring system, incorporating the most significant information acquired from magnetic resonance imaging. Therefore, the impact of bone marrow infiltration patterns on progression-free and overall survival in 161 transplant-eligible myeloma patients was evaluated. Compared to salt and pepper/minimal diffuse infiltration, moderate/severe diffuse infiltration had a negative prognostic impact on both progression-free survival (P<0.001) and overall survival (P=0.003). More than 25 focal lesions on whole-body magnetic resonance imaging or more than seven on axial magnetic resonance imaging were associated with an adverse prognosis (progression-free survival: P=0.001/0.003 and overall survival: P=0.04/0.02). A magnetic resonance imaging-based prognostic scoring system, combining grouped diffuse and focal infiltration patterns, was formulated and is applicable to whole-body as well as axial magnetic resonance imaging. The score identified high-risk patients with median progression-free and overall survival of 23.4 and 55.9 months, respectively (whole-body-based). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that the magnetic resonance imaging-based prognostic score stage III (high-risk) and adverse cytogenetics are independent prognostic factors for both progression-free and overall survival (whole-body-based, progression-free survival: hazard ratio=3.65, P<0.001; overall survival: hazard ratio=5.19, P=0.005). In conclusion, we suggest a magnetic resonance imaging-based prognostic scoring system which is a robust, easy to assess and interpret parameter summarizing significant magnetic resonance imaging findings in transplant

  6. Overview of different scoring systems in Fournier’s Gangrene and assessment of prognostic factors

    PubMed Central

    Doluoğlu, Ömer Gökhan; Karagöz, Mehmet Ali; Kılınç, Muhammet Fatih; Karakan, Tolga; Yücetürk, Cem Nedim; Sarıcı, Haşmet; Özgür, Berat Cem; Eroğlu, Muzaffer

    2016-01-01

    Objective In this study we aimed to evaluate prognostic factors for the survival of patients with Fournier’s gangrene (FG), and overview different validated scoring systems for outcome prediction. Material and methods We retrospectively analyzed the data of 39 patients treated for FG in our clinic. Data were collected on medical history, symptoms, physical examination findings, vital signs, laboratory parameters at admission and at the end of treatment, timing and extent of surgical debridement, and the antibiotic treatment used. The Fournier’s Gangrene Severity Index (FGSI) and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were used to predict outcome. The data were analyzed in relation with the survival of the patients. Mann-Whitney U test, chi -square test, Wilcoxon signed rank test, and Cox regression analysis were used for the statistical analysis. Results Of 39 patients analyzed, 8 (20.5%) died and 31 (79.5%) survived. The median FGSI score on admission was 2 (0–9) for the survivors and 6 (2–14) for the non-survivors (p=0.004). The median CCI scores of the survivors and non-survivors were 2 (0–10) and 6.5 (5–11), respectively (p=0.001). Except for urea, albumin and hematocrit levels, no significant differences were found between survivors and non-survivors for other laboratory parameters on admission. Lower albumin levels and advanced age were found to be associated with mortality. Conclusion High blood urea, low albumin, and low hematocrit levels were associated with poor prognosis. High CCI and FGSI scores could be associated with a poor prognosis in patients with FG. PMID:27635295

  7. A new Leukemia Prognostic Scoring System for refractory/relapsed adult acute myelogeneous leukaemia patients: a GOELAMS study.

    PubMed

    Chevallier, P; Labopin, M; Turlure, P; Prebet, T; Pigneux, A; Hunault, M; Filanovsky, K; Cornillet-Lefebvre, P; Luquet, I; Lode, L; Richebourg, S; Blanchet, O; Gachard, N; Vey, N; Ifrah, N; Milpied, N; Harousseau, J-L; Bene, M-C; Mohty, M; Delaunay, J

    2011-06-01

    A simplified prognostic score is presented based on the multivariate analysis of 138 refractory/relapsed acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) patients (median age 55 years, range: 19-70) receiving a combination of intensive chemotherapy+Gemtuzumab as salvage regimen. Overall, 2-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were 29±4% and 36±4%, respectively. Disease status (relapse <12 months, including refractory patients), FLT3-ITD-positive status and high-risk cytogenetics were the three strongest independent adverse prognostic factors for OS and EFS in this series. We then defined three subgroups with striking different outcomes at 2 years: no adverse factor (favourable, N=36): OS 58%, EFS 45%; one adverse factor (intermediate, N=54): OS 37%, EFS 31%; two or three adverse factors (poor, N=43): OS 12%, EFS 12% (P<10(-4), P=0.001). This new simplified Leukemia Prognostic Scoring System was then validated on an independent cohort of 111 refractory/relapsed AML patients. This new simplified prognostic score, using three clinical and biological parameters routinely applied, allow to discriminate around two third of the patients who should benefit from a salvage intensive regimen in the setting of refractory/relapsed AML patients. The other one third of the patients should receive investigational therapy.

  8. Can prognostic scoring systems for chronic myeloid leukemia as established in adults be applied to pediatric patients?

    PubMed

    Gurrea Salas, David; Glauche, Ingmar; Tauer, Josephine T; Thiede, Christian; Suttorp, Meinolf

    2015-08-01

    In contrast to adult medicine, specific scoring systems predicting the treatment response for an individual pediatric patient (pt) with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) have not yet been defined. We evaluated to what extend prognostic scores as described for adults (e.g., Sokal, Hasford, EUTOS score) resulted in comparable risk group categorizations in a pediatric cohort. Parameters for score calculation were extracted from a data set of 90 patients enrolled into trial CML-PAED-II and treated by a standard dose of imatinib. At month 3 and at month 6, treatment response was analyzed based on the transcript ratio BCR-ABL1/ABL1. By the EUTOS, Hasford, and Sokal scores 81, 59, and 62 % of the patients were categorized as low risk, respectively; 19, 14, and 16 % of the patients as high risk, respectively; and by Hasford and Sokal scores 27 and 22 % of the patients, respectively, as intermediate risk. Twenty-seven out of 72 patients analyzable (38 %) exhibited a transcript ratio >10 % at month 3. We show that only the EUTOS score, but not the Sokal and Hasford score, correlates with this early outcome (p = 0.008). Analyzing the EUTOS score separately, we can demonstrate that lowering the cutoff from 87 to 48 points for categorization in low- and high-risk individuals increases the odds ratio from 2.4 (95 % CI 0.6 to 10.4) to 3.6 (95 % CI 1.3 to 10.9). Data are provided on the distribution of risk categories and resulting discrepancies when adult scores are applied on children and adolescents with CML at diagnosis. A larger number of patients and longer follow-up are still needed to develop a prognostic score specifically adapted to the pediatric and adolescent age cohorts.

  9. Validating a Prognostic Scoring System for Postmastectomy Locoregional Recurrence in Breast Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Cheng, Skye Hung-Chun; Tsai, Stella Y.; Yu, Ben-Long; Horng, Cheng-Fang; Chen, Chii-Ming; Jian, James J.; Chu, Nan-Min; Tsou, Mei-Hua; Liu, Mei-Ching; Huang, Andrew T.; Prosnitz, Leonard R.

    2013-03-15

    Purpose: This study is designed to validate a previously developed locoregional recurrence risk (LRR) scoring system and further define which groups of patients with breast cancer would benefit from postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT). Methods and Materials: An LRR risk scoring system was developed previously at our institution using breast cancer patients initially treated with modified radical mastectomy between 1990 and 2001. The LRR score comprised 4 factors: patient age, lymphovascular invasion, estrogen receptor negativity, and number of involved lymph nodes. We sought to validate the original study by examining a new dataset of 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007. Results: The 1545 patients were scored according to the previously developed criteria: 920 (59.6%) were low risk (score 0-1), 493 (31.9%) intermediate risk (score 2-3), and 132 (8.5%) were high risk (score ≥4). The 5-year locoregional control rates with and without PMRT in low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups were 98% versus 97% (P=.41), 97% versus 91% (P=.0005), and 89% versus 50% (P=.0002) respectively. Conclusions: This analysis of an additional 1545 patients treated between 2002 and 2007 validates our previously reported LRR scoring system and suggests appropriate patients for whom PMRT will be beneficial. Independent validation of this scoring system by other institutions is recommended.

  10. Can Procalcitonin Add to the Prognostic Power of the Severity Scoring System in Adults with Pneumonia?

    PubMed Central

    Naderi, HamidReza; Sarvghad, MohammadReza; Nooghabi, Mehdi Jabbari

    2015-01-01

    Background: The first decision confronting clinicians in the management of patients with community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is whether the patient is to be hospitalized or not. We sought to validate the pneumonia scoring system and assess the power of procalcitonin (PCT) level to predict in-hospital mortality (IHM) and intensive vasopressor and respiratory support (IVRS) requirements in patients with CAP. Materials and Methods: A total of 120 patients with CAP were evaluated for severity of illness based on the defined scoring systems including pneumonia severity index (PSI), confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age>65 (CURB-65), confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age>65 (CRB-65), infectious diseases society of America/American thoracic society 2007 criteria (IDSA/ATS 2007) and systolic blood pressure, multilobar infiltrate, albumin, respiratory rate, tachycardia, confusion, low oxygen, low pH (SMART-COP). Demographic, clinical, laboratory and radiographic data were collected prospectively. The accuracy of each scoring system in predicting IVRS requirement and IHM was assessed from the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Level of PCT was determined by semi-quantitative PCT-Q method (BRAHMS). The accuracy of the defined scoring systems, PCT levels and each scoring system plus PCT levels in prediction of IHM and IVRS requirement was analyzed. Results: The accuracy of PCT levels in predicting IHM and IVRS requirement based on AUC was 0.542 and 0.658, respectively and the best threshold was ≥ 2ng/mL for both of them. Adding the level of procalcitonin to different scoring systems (based on the defined scoring systems) improved the accuracy of all systems. Conclusion: We do not suggest using the PCT level alone as a predictor for mortality and IVRS requirement. Instead, we suggest PSI plus PCT and IDSA/ATS 2007 plus PCT as accurate predictors for IHM and SMART-COP plus PCT for IVRS requirement in patients who

  11. Scoring Systems to Estimate Intracerebral Control and Survival Rates of Patients Irradiated for Brain Metastases;Brain metastases; Radiation therapy; Local control; Survival; Prognostic scores

    SciTech Connect

    Rades, Dirk; Dziggel, Liesa; Haatanen, Tiina; Veninga, Theo; Lohynska, Radka; Dunst, Juergen; Schild, Steven E.

    2011-07-15

    Purpose: To create and validate scoring systems for intracerebral control (IC) and overall survival (OS) of patients irradiated for brain metastases. Methods and Materials: In this study, 1,797 patients were randomly assigned to the test (n = 1,198) or the validation group (n = 599). Two scoring systems were developed, one for IC and another for OS. The scores included prognostic factors found significant on multivariate analyses. Age, performance status, extracerebral metastases, interval tumor diagnosis to RT, and number of brain metastases were associated with OS. Tumor type, performance status, interval, and number of brain metastases were associated with IC. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the 6-month IC or OS rate (given in percent) by 10. The total score represented the sum of the scores for each factor. The score groups of the test group were compared with the corresponding score groups of the validation group. Results: In the test group, 6-month IC rates were 17% for 14-18 points, 49% for 19-23 points, and 77% for 24-27 points (p < 0.0001). IC rates in the validation group were 19%, 52%, and 77%, respectively (p < 0.0001). In the test group, 6-month OS rates were 9% for 15-19 points, 41% for 20-25 points, and 78% for 26-30 points (p < 0.0001). OS rates in the validation group were 7%, 39%, and 79%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Patients irradiated for brain metastases can be given scores to estimate OS and IC. IC and OS rates of the validation group were similar to the test group demonstrating the validity and reproducibility of both scores.

  12. Prognostic value of liver dysfunction assessed by MELD-XI scoring system in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

    PubMed

    Arai, Takahide; Yashima, Fumiaki; Yanagisawa, Ryo; Tanaka, Makoto; Shimizu, Hideyuki; Fukuda, Keiichi; Watanabe, Yusuke; Naganuma, Toru; Araki, Motoharu; Tada, Norio; Yamanaka, Futoshi; Shirai, Shinichi; Yamamoto, Masanori; Hayashida, Kentaro

    2017-02-01

    There are limited data regarding the influence of liver dysfunction on outcomes of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Model for End-stage Liver Disease eXcluding International normalized ratio (MELD-XI) score, which was originally developed for patients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation, has been reported as a predictor of heart disease. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of MELD-XI score for patients undergoing TAVI. Data from the prospectively maintained Optimized transCathEter vAlvular iNtervention (OCEAN-TAVI) multicenter registry were collected in 749 patients who underwent TAVI between October 2013 and August 2015. MELD-XI score was calculated as follows: 11.76×Ln (creatinine)+5.11×Ln (total bilirubin)+9.44. Patients were categorized based on MELD-XI score>10 or ≤10, and compared with regard to clinical characteristics and outcomes of TAVI. Higher MELD-XI score was associated with lower 30-day survival (95.6% vs 98.5%, P=0.03). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that higher MELD-XI score also was associated with lower 6-month survival (P<0.01). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that MELD-XI score was an independent predictor of 6-month cumulative mortality. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that MELD-XI score showed better accuracy in predicting 6-month mortality compared with Logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, and Society of Thoracic Surgeons scores (area under the curve=0.67, 0.58, 0.57, and 0.60, respectively). Evaluation of liver dysfunction according to MELD-XI score provides additional risk information for patients undergoing TAVI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Diagnostic and prognostic scoring system for prostate cancer using urine and plasma biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Ma, Wanlong; Diep, Kevin; Fritsche, Herbert A; Shore, Neal; Albitar, Maher

    2014-03-01

    To avoid relying solely on serum prostate-specific antigen (sPSA) in screening for prostate cancer (PCa), we developed a scoring system for detecting PCa and the prediction of aggressiveness. We analyzed urine and plasma specimens from 121 patients with PCa or benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) for the levels of UAP1, PDLIM5, IMPDH2, HSPD1, PCA3, PSA, TMPRSS2, ERG, GAPDH, and B2M genes. Patient age, sPSA level, and polymerase chain reaction data were entered through multiple algorithms to determine models most useful for the detection of cancer and predicting aggressiveness. In the first algorithm, we distinguished PCa from BPH (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] of 0.78). Another algorithm distinguished patients with the Gleason score (GS) of ≥7 from GS of <7 cancer or BPH (AUROC of 0.88). By incorporating the two algorithms into a scoring system, 75% of the analyzed samples showed concordance between the two models (99% specificity and 68% sensitivity for predicting GS ≥7 in this group). A scoring system incorporating two algorithms using urine and plasma biomarkers highly predicts the presence of GS ≥7 PCa in 75% of patients. Our algorithms may assist with both biopsy indication and patient prognosis.

  14. Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System scores, pre-transplant therapy and chronic graft-versus-host disease determine outcome after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for myelofibrosis

    PubMed Central

    Ditschkowski, Markus; Elmaagacli, Ahmet H.; Trenschel, Rudolf; Gromke, Tanja; Steckel, Nina K.; Koldehoff, Michael; Beelen, Dietrich W.

    2012-01-01

    Background Myelofibrosis is a myeloproliferative stem cell disorder curable exclusively by allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to assess disease-specific and transplant-related risk factors that influence post-transplant outcome in patients with myelofibrosis. Design and Methods We retrospectively assessed 76 consecutive patients with primary (n=47) or secondary (n=29) myelofibrosis who underwent bone marrow (n=6) or peripheral blood stem cell (n=70) transplantation from sibling (n=30) or unrelated (n=46) donors between January 1994 and December 2010. The median follow-up of surviving patients was 55±7.5 months. Results Primary graft failure occurred in 5% and the non-relapse mortality rate at 1 year was 28%. The relapse-free survival rate was 50% with a relapse rate of 19% at 5 years. The use of pharmacological pre-treatment and the post-transplant occurrence of chronic graft-versus-host disease were significant independent unfavourable risk factors for post-transplant survival in multivariate analysis. Using the Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System for risk stratification, low-risk patients had significantly better overall survival (P=0.014, hazard ratio 1.4) and relapse-free survival (P=0.02, hazard ratio 1.3) compared to the other risk groups of patients. The additional inclusion of thrombocytopenia, abnormal karyotype and transfusion need (Dynamic International Prognostic Scoring System Plus) resulted in a predicted 5-year overall survival of 100%, 51%, 54% and 30% for low, intermediate-1, intermediate-2 and high-risk groups, respectively. The relapse incidence was significantly higher in the absence of chronic graft-versus-host disease (P=0.006), and pharmacological pre-treatment (n=43) was associated with reduced relapse-free survival (P=0.001). Conclusions The data corroborate a strong correlation between alloreactivity and long-term post

  15. Report on outcomes of hypomethylating therapy for analyzing prognostic value of Revised International Prognostic Scoring System for patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes.

    PubMed

    Lee, Yoo Jin; Park, Sung Woo; Lee, In Hee; Ahn, Jae Sook; Kim, Hyeoung Joon; Chung, Joo Seop; Shin, Ho Jin; Lee, Won Sik; Lee, Sang Min; Joo, Young Don; Kim, Hawk; Lee, Ho Sup; Kim, Yang Soo; Cho, Yoon Young; Moon, Joon Ho; Sohn, Sang Kyun

    2016-10-01

    The outcomes for patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (LR-MDS) by the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) vary widely. For more precise prognostication, this study evaluates the prognostic value of revised IPSS with the response to hypomethylating therapy (HMT). Using the Korean MDS Working Party database, treatment outcomes for 236 patients with HMT were retrospectively evaluated. The patients were then reclassified into very low/low (VL/L), intermediate (INT), and high (H) risk groups according to IPSS-R. According to the HMT response, the 3-year overall survival (OS) did not differ between the response group (37.9 ± 9.1 %) and the stable group (52.9 ± 6.6 %, p = 0. 782). When reclassifying according to IPSS-R, 42 patients (20.8 %) were reclassified into the H risk group. Most of them did not have benefit from continued HMT and progressed to secondary failure. The median OS was 59.0 months (range, 40.0-77.9 months) for the VL/L risk group, 31 months (range, 22.7-439.3 months) for the INT risk group, and 20.0 months (range, 15.9-24.1 months) for the H risk group (p < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, the following factors were associated with survival: age ≥ 65 (HR = 1.515, p = 0.023), ECOG ≥ 2 (HR = 2.968, p < 0.001), H risk group according to IPSS-R (HR = 3.054, p < 0.001), P/VP cytogenetic risk according to IPSS-R (HR = 4.912, p = 0.003), and transformation to AML (HR = 2.158, p = 0.002). If IPSS-R reclassifies LR-MDS patients as H risk, these patients should be considered for early allo-HCT, regardless of the current benefits from HMT.

  16. A novel scoring system for prognostic prediction in d-galactosamine/lipopolysaccharide-induced fulminant hepatic failure BALB/c mice.

    PubMed

    Feng, Bo; Wu, Sheng Ming; Lv, Sa; Liu, Feng; Chen, Hong Song; Gao, Yan; Dong, Fang Ting; Wei, Lai

    2009-12-30

    It is frequently important to identify the prognosis of fulminant hepatic failure (FHF) patients as this will influence patient management and candidacy for liver transplantation. Therefore, a novel scoring system based on metabonomics combining with multivariate logistic regression was developed to predict the prognosis of FHF mouse model. BALB/c mice were used to construct FHF model. Parts of plasma were collected at 4, 5, and 6-h time points after treatment, respectively, and detected using gas chromatography/time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC/TOFMS). The acquired data were processed using partial least square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). The metabolic markers identified were used to construct a scoring system by multivariate regression analysis. 28 mice of survival group and 28 of dead group were randomly selected and analyzed. PLS regression analysis showed that both the PLS models of 5 h and 6 h after d-galactosamine/lipopolysaccharide treatment demonstrated good performances. Loadings plot suggested that phosphate, beta-hydroxybutyrate (HB), urea, glucose and lactate concentrations in plasma had the highest weightings on the clustering differences at the three time points. By the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the death/survival index (DSI) was constructed based on relative concentrations of HB, urea and phosphate. It provided general accurate rate of prediction of 93.3% in the independent samples. The novel scoring system based on metabonomics combining with multivariate logistic regression is accurate in predicting the prognosis of FHF mouse model and may be referred in clinical practice as a more useful prognostic tool with other available information.

  17. Preeclampsia in kidney transplanted women; Outcomes and a simple prognostic risk score system

    PubMed Central

    Reisæter, Anna Varberg; Zucknick, Manuela; Lorentzen, Bjørg; Vangen, Siri; Henriksen, Tore; Michelsen, Trond Melbye

    2017-01-01

    Women pregnant following kidney transplantation are at high risk of preeclampsia. Identifying the effects of preeclampsia on pregnancy outcome and allograft function in kidney transplanted women, and predicting which women will require more targeted follow-up and possible therapeutic intervention, could improve both maternal and neonatal outcome. In this retrospective cohort study of all pregnancies following kidney transplantation in Norway between 1969 and 2013, we used medical records to identify clinical characteristics predictive of preeclampsia. 175 pregnancies were included, in which preeclampsia was diagnosed in 65. Pregnancies with preeclampsia had significantly higher postpartum serum creatinine levels, higher risks of preterm delivery, caesarean delivery, and small for gestational age infants. In the final multivariate model chronic hypertension (aOR = 5.02 [95% CI, 2.47–10.18]), previous preeclampsia (aOR = 3.26 [95% CI, 1.43–7.43]), and elevated serum creatinine (≥125 μmol/L) at the start of pregnancy (aOR = 5.79 [95% CI, 1.91–17.59]) were prognostic factors for preeclampsia. Based on this model the risk was 19% when none of these factors were present, 45–59% risk when one was present, 80–87% risk when two were present, and 96% risk when all three were present. We suggest that the risk of preeclampsia in pregnancies in kidney transplanted women can be predicted with these variables, which are easily available at the start of pregnancy. PMID:28319175

  18. A prognostic cytogenetic scoring system to guide the adjuvant management of patients with atypical meningioma.

    PubMed

    Aizer, Ayal A; Abedalthagafi, Malak; Bi, Wenya Linda; Horvath, Margaret C; Arvold, Nils D; Al-Mefty, Ossama; Lee, Eudocia Q; Nayak, Lakshmi; Rinne, Mikael L; Norden, Andrew D; Reardon, David A; Wen, Patrick Y; Ligon, Keith L; Ligon, Azra H; Beroukhim, Rameen; Dunn, Ian F; Santagata, Sandro; Alexander, Brian M

    2016-02-01

    The appropriate use of adjuvant therapy in patients with gross totally resected atypical meningioma requires an accurate assessment of recurrence risk. We sought to determine whether cytogenetic/genetic characterization may facilitate better estimation of the probability of recurrence. We first analyzed our clinical database, including high-resolution DNA copy number data, to identify 11 common copy number aberrations in a pilot cohort of meningiomas of all grades. We summed these aberrations to devise a cytogenetic abnormality score (CAS) and determined the CAS from archived tissue of a separate cohort of 32 patients with gross totally resected atypical meningioma managed with surgery alone. Propensity score adjusted Cox regression was used to determine whether the CAS was predictive of recurrence. An association between higher CAS and higher grade was noted in our pilot cohort with heterogeneity among atypical tumors. Among the 32 patients who underwent gross total resection of an atypical meningioma, the CAS was not significantly associated with age, gender, performance status, or tumor size/location but was associated with the risk of recurrence on univariable analysis (hazard ratio per aberration = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.08-2.14; P = .02). After adjustment, the impact of the dichotomized number of copy aberrations remained significantly associated with recurrence risk (hazard ratio = 4.47; 95% CI = 1.01-19.87; P = .05). The number of copy number aberrations is strongly associated with recurrence risk in patients with atypical meningioma following gross total resection and may inform the appropriate use of adjuvant radiation therapy in these patients or be useful for stratification in clinical trials. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Neuro-Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. A simple prognostic scoring system for newly diagnosed cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia: retrospective analysis of 530 patients.

    PubMed

    Malagola, Michele; Skert, Cristina; Vignetti, Marco; Piciocchi, Alfonso; Martinelli, Giovanni; Alimena, Giuliana; Mecucci, Cristina; Testoni, Nicoletta; Iacobucci, Ilaria; Clavio, Marino; Gobbi, Marco; Candoni, Anna; Damiani, Daniela; Bocchia, Monica; Lauria, Francesco; Zaccaria, Alfonso; Mazza, Patrizio; Visani, Giuseppe; Peli, Annalisa; Colombi, Chiara; Cancelli, Valeria; Mancini, Marco; Foà, Robin; Martelli, Massimo; Cantore, Nicola; Di Raimondo, Francesco; Petrini, Mario; De Fabritiis, Paolo; Fioritoni, Giuseppe; Nobile, Francesco; Fabbiano, Francesco; Specchia, Giorgina; Baccarani, Michele; Lo Coco, Francesco; Amadori, Sergio; Mandelli, Franco; Russo, Domenico

    2011-12-01

    We retrospectively analyzed the data of 337 patients with cytogenetically normal (CN) acute myeloid leukemia (AML), aged ≤ 65 years (training set). A prognostic index score (PIS) was calculated by totaling the score derived from the regression coefficients of each clinical variable, significantly associated with prognosis by multivariate analysis. The variables that were independent prognostic factors for event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) in the training set were: age ≥ 50 years, secondary AML and white blood cell count (WBC) ≥ 20 × 10(9)/L. The patients of the training set were stratified into three groups: low-, intermediate- and high-risk. The median EFS was 25, 12 and 7 months in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups (p < 0.0001), respectively. The median OS was not reached in the low-risk group and was 19 and 10 months in the intermediate- and high-risk groups (p < 0.0001). This PIS was validated in a series of 193 patients with CN-AML. The median EFS was 66, 16, and 3 months (p < 0.0001) and the median OS was 66, 16, and 5 months in the three risk groups, respectively (p < 0.0001). This PIS may be useful for clinical decision-making in CN-AML and may be prospectively integrated with the newest biological markers which at present are not routinely assessed and need prognostic validation.

  20. Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Prognostic Index: A New Integrated Scoring System to Predict the Time to First Treatment in Chinese Patients with Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Li, Heng; Yi, Shu-Hua; Xiong, Wen-Jie; Liu, Hui-Min; Lyu, Rui; Wang, Ting-Yu; Liu, Wei; Zhong, Shi-Zhen; Yu, Zhen; Zou, De-Hui; Xu, Yan; An, Gang; Li, Zeng-Jun; Qiu, Lu-Gui

    2017-01-01

    Background: The established clinical staging systems (Rai/Binet) of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) cannot accurately predict the appropriate treatment of patients in the earlier stages. In the past two decades, several prognostic factors have been identified to predict the outcome of patients with CLL, but only a few studies investigated more markers together. To predict the time to first treatment (TTFT) in patients of early stages, we evaluated the prognostic role of conventional markers as well as cytogenetic abnormalities and combined them together in a new prognostic scoring system, the CLL prognostic index (CLL-PI). Methods: Taking advantage of a population of 406 untreated Chinese patients with CLL at early and advanced stage of disease, we identified the strongest prognostic markers of TTFT and, subsequently, in a cohort of 173 patients who had complete data for all 3 variables, we integrated the data of traditional staging system, cytogenetic aberrations, and mutational status of immunoglobulin heavy chain variable region (IGHV) in CLL-PI. The median follow-up time was 45 months and the end point was TTFT. Results: The median TTFT was 38 months and the 5-year overall survival was 80%. According to univariate analysis, patients of advanced Rai stages (P < 0.001) or with 11q- (P = 0.002), 17p- (P < 0.001), unmutated IGHV (P < 0.001), negative 13q- (P = 0.007) and elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels (P = 0.001) tended to have a significantly shorter TTFT. And subsequently, based on multivariate Cox regression analysis, three independent factors for TTFT were identified: advanced clinical stage (P = 0.002), 17p- (P = 0.050) and unmutated IGHV (P = 0.049). Applying weighted grading of these independent factors, a CLL-PI was constructed based on regression parameters, which could categorize four different risk groups (low risk [score 0], intermediate low [score 1], intermediate high [score 2] and high risk [score 3–6]) with significantly different TTFT

  1. Validation of a novel prognostic scoring system using inflammatory response biomarkers in patients undergoing curative thoracoscopic esophagectomy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Hirahara, Noriyuki; Fujii, Yusuke; Yamamoto, Tetsu; Hyakudomi, Ryoji; Hirayama, Takanori; Taniura, Takahito; Ishitobi, Kazunari; Tajima, Yoshitsugu

    2017-01-01

    Background Systemic inflammatory markers, including the lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio have been shown to predict postoperative recurrence and survival in various types of cancer. However, their role in esophageal cancer has yet to be determined. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of an inflammatory response biomarker (IRB) score, independent of conventional clinicopathological criteria, in patients with esophageal cancer undergoing curative resection. Patients and methods We retrospectively reviewed a database containing the medical records of 147 consecutive patients who underwent curative esophagectomy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The IRB score was determined as follows: a low lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (<4), a low neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (<1.6), and a high platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (>147), which were each scored as 1, with all remaining values scored as 0. The scores were added together to produce the IRB score (range: 0–3). Results An IRB score of 2–3 (hazard ratio: 6.023, 95% confidence interval: 1.675–13.078; P<0.01) was identified as an independent poor prognostic factor of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in a multivariate logic regression analysis. The 5-year CSS rates in patients with the IRB scores of 0−1, 2, and 3 were 37.8%, 67.8%, and 72.5%, respectively. As determined by Kaplan–Meier analysis and the log-rank test, these differences were significant (P<0.001). Conclusion The IRB score can predict the systemic inflammatory response as accurately as conventional tumor markers and is useful for determining CSS in patients with esophageal cancer undergoing curative thoracoscopic esophagectomy. PMID:28144151

  2. Prognostic Scores for Acute Pulmonary Embolism.

    PubMed

    Morillo, Raquel; Moores, Lisa; Jiménez, David

    2017-02-06

    Rapid and accurate risk stratification is critical in determining the optimal treatment strategy for patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Early identification of patients with normal blood pressure and a favorable prognosis (low-risk PE) might select a subset of patients for outpatient treatment, which is associated with reduced cost and improved patient satisfaction, and has been shown to be effective and safe. Alternatively, identification of normotensive patients deemed as having a high risk for PE-related adverse clinical events (intermediate-high-risk PE) might select a subset of patients for close observation and consideration of escalation of therapy. Clinical prognostic scores have been gaining importance in the classification of patients into these categories. They should be derived and validated following strict methodological standards, and their use in clinical practice should be encouraged.

  3. The International Scoring System (ISS) for multiple myeloma remains a robust prognostic tool independently of patients' renal function.

    PubMed

    Dimopoulos, M A; Kastritis, E; Michalis, E; Tsatalas, C; Michael, M; Pouli, A; Kartasis, Z; Delimpasi, S; Gika, D; Zomas, A; Roussou, M; Konstantopoulos, K; Parcharidou, A; Zervas, K; Terpos, E

    2012-03-01

    The International Staging System (ISS) is the most widely used staging system for patients with multiple myeloma (MM). However, serum β2-microglobulin increases in renal impairment (RI) and there have been concerns that ISS-3 stage may include 'up-staged' MM patients in whom elevated β2-microglobulin reflects the degree of renal dysfunction rather than tumor load. In order to assess the impact of RI on the prognostic value of ISS, we analyzed 1516 patients with symptomatic MM and the degree of RI was classified according to the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative-Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) criteria. Forty-eight percent patients had stages 3-5 CKD while 29% of patients had ISS-1, 38% had ISS-2 and 33% ISS-3. The frequency and severity of RI were more common in ISS-3 patients. RI was associated with inferior survival in univariate but not in multivariate analysis. When analyzed separately, ISS-1 and ISS-2 patients with RI had inferior survival in univariate but not in multivariate analysis. In ISS-3 MM patients, RI had no prognostic impact either in univariate or multivariate analysis. Results were similar, when we analyzed only patients with Bence-Jones >200 mg/day. ISS remains unaffected by the degree of RI, even in patients with ISS-3, which includes most patients with renal dysfunction.

  4. Prognostic markers of acute decompensated heart failure: the emerging roles of cardiac biomarkers and prognostic scores.

    PubMed

    Cohen-Solal, Alain; Laribi, Said; Ishihara, Shiro; Vergaro, Giuseppe; Baudet, Mathilde; Logeart, Damien; Mebazaa, Alexandre; Gayat, Etienne; Vodovar, Nicolas; Pascual-Figal, Domingo A; Seronde, Marie-France

    2015-01-01

    Rapidly assessing outcome in patients with acute decompensated heart failure is important but prognostic factors may differ from those used routinely for stable chronic heart failure. Multiple plasma biomarkers, besides the classic natriuretic peptides, have recently emerged as potential prognosticators. Furthermore, prognostic scores that combine clinical and biochemical data may also be useful. However, compared with the scores used in chronic heart failure, scores for acute decompensated heart failure have not been validated. This article reviews potential biomarkers, with a special focus on biochemical biomarkers, and possible prognostic scores that could be used by the clinician when assessing outcome in patients with acute heart failure.

  5. A clinical prognostic scoring system for resectable gastric cancer to predict survival and benefit from paclitaxel- or oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Qian, Jing; Qian, Yingying; Wang, Jian; Gu, Bing; Pei, Dong; He, Shaohua; Zhu, Fang; Røe, Oluf Dimitri; Xu, Jin; Liu, Lianke; Gu, Yanhong; Guo, Renhua; Yin, Yongmei; Shu, Yongqian; Chen, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Background Gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy is a standard procedure of curative resection for gastric cancer (GC). The aim of this study was to develop a simple and reliable prognostic scoring system for GC treated with D2 gastrectomy combined with adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods A prognostic scoring system was established based on clinical and laboratory data from 579 patients with localized GC without distant metastasis treated with D2 gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy. Results From the multivariate model for overall survival (OS), five factors were selected for the scoring system: ≥50% metastatic lymph node rate, positive lymphovascular invasion, pathologic TNM Stage II or III, ≥5 ng/mL preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level, and <110 g/L preoperative hemoglobin. Two models were derived using different methods. Model A identified low- and high-risk patients for OS (P<0.001), while Model B differentiated low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients for OS (P<0.001). Stage III patients in the low-risk group had higher survival probabilities than Stage II patients. Both Model A (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69–0.78) and Model B (AUC: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.72–0.83) were better predictors compared with the pathologic TNM classification (AUC: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.59–0.71, P<0.001). Adjuvant paclitaxel- or oxaliplatin-based or triple chemotherapy showed significantly better outcomes in patients classified as high risk, but not in those with low and intermediate risk. Conclusion A clinical three-tier prognostic risk scoring system was established to predict OS of GC treated with D2 gastrectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy. The potential advantage of this scoring system is that it can identify high-risk patients in Stage II or III who may benefit from paclitaxel- or oxaliplatin-based regimens. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these results before they are applied clinically. PMID:26966350

  6. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

    PubMed Central

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

    2015-01-01

    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

  7. Coalesced Multicentric Analysis of 2,351 Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes Indicates an Underestimation of Poor-Risk Cytogenetics of Myelodysplastic Syndromes in the International Prognostic Scoring System

    PubMed Central

    Schanz, Julie; Steidl, Christian; Fonatsch, Christa; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Tuechler, Heinz; Valent, Peter; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Giagounidis, Aristoteles; Aul, Carlo; Lübbert, Michael; Stauder, Reinhard; Krieger, Otto; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Kantarjian, Hagop; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef; Estey, Elihu

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) remains the most commonly used system for risk classification in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs). The IPSS gives more weight to blast count than to cytogenetics. However, previous publications suggested that cytogenetics are underweighted in the IPSS. Here we investigate the prognostic impact of cytogenetic subgroups compared with that of bone marrow blast count in a large, multicentric, international patient cohort. Patients and Methods In total, 2,351 patients with MDS who have records in the German-Austrian and the MD Anderson Cancer Center databases were included and analyzed in univariate and multivariate models regarding overall survival and risk of transformation to acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The data were analyzed separately for patients treated with supportive care without specific therapy, with AML-like chemotherapy, or with other therapy regimens (low-dose chemotherapy, demethylating agents, immune modulating agents, valproic acid, and cyclosporine). Results The prognostic impact of poor-risk cytogenetic findings (as defined by the IPSS classification) on overall survival was as unfavorable as an increased (> 20%) blast count. The hazard ratio (compared with an abnormal karyotype or a bone marrow blast count < 5%) was 3.3 for poor-risk cytogenetics, 4.8 for complex abnormalities harboring chromosomes 5 and/or 7, and 3.1 for a blast count of 21% to 30% (P < .01 for all categories). The predictive power of the IPSS cytogenetic subgroups was unaffected by type of therapy given. Conclusion The independent prognostic impact of poor-risk cytogenetics on overall survival is equivalent to the impact of high blast counts. This finding should be considered in the upcoming revision of the IPSS. PMID:21519021

  8. Inclusion of hemoglobin level in prognostic score provides better prognostic stratification in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL).

    PubMed

    Park, Silvia; Lee, Su Jin; Kim, Kihyun; Jang, Jun Ho; Kim, Dong Hwan; Lee, Kyu Hyung; Lee, Je Hwan; Lee, Jung Hee; Kim, Dae Young; Jang, Dae-Young; Kim, Hawk; Park, Jae Hoo; Ryoo, Hun Mo; Bae, Sung Hwa; Kim, Min Kyung; Hyun, Myung Soo; Joo, Young Don; Lee, Won Sik; Lee, Sang Min; Jung, Chul Won

    2013-03-01

    The clinical outcomes of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) have improved greatly, but treatment failure still occurs. Identification of patients with poor prognosis is fundamental, and we propose a new clinical prognostic system (CBC-score) consisting of WBC, platelet count, and hemoglobin level. Between 1995 and 2009, 156 patients with APL from seven institutes in Korea were retrospectively reviewed. In the new CBC-score system, each of the following (WBC ≥ 10 × 109/L, platelet <40 × 109/L, hemoglobin <8.0 g/dL) was considered as a risk factor; the sum of each was designated as the CBC-score. With a median follow-up of 8.4 years, the complete remission (CR) rate was 81.4 % (127/156), while 24 (15.4 %) were considered as treatment failures due to early death (ED). The 5-year overall survival (OS), leukemia-free survival, and cumulative incidence of relapse were 73.8, 82.8, and 13.5 %, respectively. Compared to the individual CBC parameters, combined prognostic systems such as PETHEMA or CBC-score provided better prognostic stratification. Compared to PETHEMA stratification, the proposed prognostic CBC-score system showed better stratification of APL patients in terms of CR rates (p = 0.004), OS (p = 0.004), and ED (p = 0.008). This retrospective study suggests that the proposed CBC-score may provide better prognostic stratification of APL patients.

  9. Prognostic evaluation based on cortical vein score difference in stroke.

    PubMed

    Parthasarathy, Rajsrinivas; Kate, Mahesh; Rempel, Jeremy L; Liebeskind, David S; Jeerakathil, Thomas; Butcher, Kenneth S; Shuaib, Ashfaq

    2013-10-01

    Multimodal imaging in acute ischemic stroke defines the extent of arterial collaterals, resultant penumbra, and associated infarct core, yet limitations abound. We identified superficial and deep venous drainage patterns that predict outcomes in patients with a proximal arterial occlusion of the anterior circulation. An observational study that used computed tomography (CT) angiography to detail venous drainage in a consecutive series of patients with a proximal anterior circulation arterial occlusion. The principal veins that drain the cortex (superficial middle cerebral, vein of Trolard, vein of Labbé, and basal vein of Rosenthal) and deep structures were scored with a categorical scale on the basis of degree of contrast enhancement. The Prognostic Evaluation based on Cortical vein score difference In Stroke score encompassing the interhemispheric difference of the composite scores of the veins draining the cortices (superficial middle cerebral+vein of Trolard+vein of Labbé+basal vein of Rosenthal) was analyzed with respect to 90-day modified Rankin Scale outcomes. Thirty-nine patients were included in the study. A Prognostic Evaluation based on Cortical vein score difference In Stroke score of 4 to 8 accurately predicted poor outcomes (modified Rankin Scale, 3-6; odds ratio, 20.53; P<0.001). On stepwise logistic regression analyses adjusted for CT Alberta stroke program early CT score, CT angiography collateral grading and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, a Prognostic Evaluation based on Cortical vein score difference In Stroke score of 4 to 8 (odds ratio, 23.598; P=0.009) and an elevated admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (odds ratio, 1.423; P=0.023) were independent predictors of poor outcome. The Prognostic Evaluation based on Cortical vein score difference In Stroke score, a novel measure of venous enhancement on CT angiography, accurately predicts clinical outcomes. Venous features on computed tomography angiography

  10. Prognostic Evaluation Based on Cortical Vein Score Difference in Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Parthasarathy, Rajsrinivas; Kate, Mahesh; Rempel, Jeremy L.; Liebeskind, David S.; Jeerakathil, Thomas; Butcher, Kenneth S.; Shuaib, Ashfaq

    2014-01-01

    Background and Purpose Multimodal imaging in acute ischemic stroke defines the extent of arterial collaterals, resultant penumbra, and associated infarct core, yet limitations abound. We identified superficial and deep venous drainage patterns that predict outcomes in patients with a proximal arterial occlusion of the anterior circulation. Methods An observational study that used computed tomography (CT) angiography to detail venous drainage in a consecutive series of patients with a proximal anterior circulation arterial occlusion. The principal veins that drain the cortex (superficial middle cerebral, vein of Trolard, vein of Labbé, and basal vein of Rosenthal) and deep structures were scored with a categorical scale on the basis of degree of contrast enhancement. The Prognostic Evaluation based on Cortical vein score difference In Stroke score encompassing the interhemispheric difference of the composite scores of the veins draining the cortices (superficial middle cerebral+vein of Trolard+vein of Labbé+basal vein of Rosenthal) was analyzed with respect to 90-day modified Rankin Scale outcomes. Results Thirty-nine patients were included in the study. A Prognostic Evaluation based on Cortical vein score difference In Stroke score of 4 to 8 accurately predicted poor outcomes (modified Rankin Scale, 3–6; odds ratio, 20.53; P<0.001). On stepwise logistic regression analyses adjusted for CT Alberta stroke program early CT score, CT angiography collateral grading and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, a Prognostic Evaluation based on Cortical vein score difference In Stroke score of 4 to 8 (odds ratio, 23.598; P=0.009) and an elevated admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (odds ratio, 1.423; P=0.023) were independent predictors of poor outcome. Conclusions The Prognostic Evaluation based on Cortical vein score difference In Stroke score, a novel measure of venous enhancement on CT angiography, accurately predicts clinical outcomes

  11. Propensity Score Matching within Prognostic Strata

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelcey, Ben

    2013-01-01

    A central issue in nonexperimental studies is identifying comparable individuals to remove selection bias. One common way to address this selection bias is through propensity score (PS) matching. PS methods use a model of the treatment assignment to reduce the dimensionality of the covariate space and identify comparable individuals. parallel to…

  12. The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) is a novel prognostic indicator in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: a multicenter retrospective study.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Jiayu; Wang, Hua; Liu, Cheng-Cheng; Lu, Yue; Tang, Hailin

    2016-11-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score systems composed of C-reactive protein and albumin, has been reported to be predictive of survival in several types of malignancies. The prognostic significance of GPS in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) remains unclear. We conducted this study to assess the prognostic value of GPS in a cohort of patients with advanced EOC receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) followed by debulking surgery. Six hundred and seventy-two patients newly diagnosed with advanced EOC were retrospectively analyzed. High GPS was significantly related to Eastern Cooperative Group performance status, histological type, histological grade and the size of residual tumor after the debulking surgery. In addition, patients with higher GPS at diagnosis achieved lower complete remission rates after NAC (P < 0.05) and had shorter progression-free survival (PFS; P < 0.001) and overall survival (OS; P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed high GPS was independent adverse predictors of PFS and OS. Our data demonstrated that GPS at diagnosis is a powerful independent prognostic factor for advanced epithelial ovarian cancer. However, further studies are needed to prospectively validate this prognostic model and investigate the mechanisms underlying the correlation between high GPS and poor prognosis in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer.

  13. Decision analysis of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome stratified according to the revised international prognostic scoring system (IPSS-R).

    PubMed

    Della Porta, M G; Jackson, C H; Alessandrino, E P; Rossi, M; Bacigalupo, A; van Lint, M T; Bernardi, M; Allione, B; Bosi, A; Guidi, S; Santini, V; Malcovati, L; Ubezio, M; Milanesi, C; Todisco, E; Voso, M T; Musto, P; Onida, F; Iori, A P; Cerretti, R; Grillo, G; Molteni, A; Pioltelli, P; Borin, L; Angelucci, E; Oldani, E; Sica, S; Pascutto, C; Ferretti, V; Santoro, A; Bonifazi, F; Cazzola, M; Rambaldi, A

    2017-03-21

    Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT) represents the only curative treatment for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), but involves non-negligible morbidity and mortality. Crucial questions in clinical decision making include the definition of optimal timing of the procedure and the benefit of cytoreduction before transplant in high risk patients. We carried out a decision analysis on 1728 MDS who received supportive care, transplantation or hypomethylating agents (HMAs). Risk assessment was based on the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R). We used a continuous-time multistate Markov model to describe the natural history of disease and evaluate the effect of different treatment policies on survival. Life expectancy increased when transplantation was delayed from the initial stages to intermediate IPSS-R risk (gain of life expectancy 5.3, 4.7 and 2.8 years for patients aged ⩽55, 60 and 65 years, respectively), and then decreased for higher risks. Modelling decision analysis on IPSS-R vs original IPSS changed transplantation policy in 29% of patients, resulting in a 2-year gain in life expectancy. In advanced stages, HMAs given before transplant is associated with a 2-year gain of life expectancy, especially in older patients. These results provide a preliminary evidence to maximize the effectiveness of allo-SCT in MDS.Leukemia accepted article preview online, 21 March 2017. doi:10.1038/leu.2017.88.

  14. Thai venous stroke prognostic score: TV-SPSS.

    PubMed

    Poungvarin, Niphon; Prayoonwiwat, Naraporn; Ratanakorn, Disya; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tassanee; Suwanwela, Nijasri; Phanthumchinda, Kamman; Tiamkoa, Somsak; Chankrachang, Siwaporn; Nidhinandana, Samart; Laptikultham, Somsak; Limsoontarakul, Sansern; Udomphanthuruk, Suthipol

    2009-11-01

    Prognosis of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) has never been studied in Thailand. A simple prognostic score to predict poor prognosis of CVST has also never been reported. The authors are aiming to establish a simple and reliable prognostic score for this condition. The medical records of CVST patients from eight neurological training centers in Thailand who received between April 1993 and September 2005 were reviewed as part of this retrospective study. Clinical features included headache, seizure, stroke risk factors, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), blood pressure on arrival, papilledema, hemiparesis, meningeal irritation sign, location of occluded venous sinuses, hemorrhagic infarction, cerebrospinal fluid opening pressure, treatment options, length of stay, and other complications were analyzed to determine the outcome using modified Rankin scale (mRS). Poor prognosis (defined as mRS of 3-6) was determined on the discharge date. One hundred ninety four patients' records, 127 females (65.5%) and mean age of 36.6 +/- 14.4 years, were analyzed Fifty-one patients (26.3%) were in the poor outcome group (mRS 3-6). Overall mortality was 8.4%. Univariate analysis and then multivariate analysis using SPSS version 11.5 revealed only four statistically significant predictors influencing outcome of CVST They were underlying malignancy, low GCS, presence of hemorrhagic infarction (for poor outcome), and involvement of lateral sinus (for good outcome). Thai venous stroke prognostic score (TV-SPSS) was derived from these four factors using a multiple logistic model. A simple and pragmatic prognostic score for CVST outcome has been developed with high sensitivity (93%), yet low specificity (33%). The next study should focus on the validation of this score in other prospective populations.

  15. Prognostic significance of CT-emphysema score in patients with advanced squamous cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young Saing; Ahn, Hee Kyung; Cho, Eun Kyung; Jeong, Yu Mi; Kim, Jeong Ho

    2016-01-01

    Background Although emphysema is a known independent risk factor of lung cancer, no study has addressed the prognostic impact of computed tomography (CT)-emphysema score in advanced stage lung cancer. Methods For 84 consecutive patients with stage IIIB and IV squamous cell lung cancer that underwent palliative chemotherapy, severity of emphysema was semi-quantitatively scored using baseline chest CT images according to the Goddard scoring system (possible scores range, 0–24). The cutoff of high CT-emphysema score was determined using the maximum chi-squared test and the prognostic significance of the high CT-emphysema score was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results The median CT-emphysema score was 5 (range, 0–22). Patients with a high CT-emphysema score (≥4) tended to have poorer overall survival (OS) (median: 6.3 vs. 13.7 months) than those with a score of <4 (P=0.071). Multivariable analysis revealed that a higher CT-emphysema score was a significant independent prognostic factor for poor OS [hazard ratio (HR) =2.06; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.24–3.41; P=0.005), along with no response to first-line therapy (P=0.009) and no second-line therapy (P<0.001). Conclusions CT-emphysema score is significantly associated with poor prognosis in patients with advanced squamous cell lung cancer. PMID:27621848

  16. Prognostic scores for use in African meningococcal epidemics.

    PubMed Central

    Ajayi-Obe, E. K.; Lodi, E.; Alkali, A. S.; Galbati, M.; Rooney, C.; Mannoni, B.; Grim, P.; Nasidi, A.; Mohammed, I.

    1998-01-01

    Current WHO guidelines for the case management of meningococcal infections during epidemics in developing countries often cannot be applied, largely because of the limited health resources in such countries. Several scoring scales based on clinical and laboratory features in numerous combinations have been developed for the management of meningococcal infections in developed countries, and these have facilitated early identification of patients with fulminant disease and thus early intervention and reduction in mortality. Unfortunately such scoring scales are not appropriate for use in developing countries. We identified hypotension, tachycardia, tachypnoea, delay in capillary refill time, coma, absence of neck stiffness and petechiae and/or purpura as simple prognostic factors of meningococcal disease. Two scores were developed: score I, which includes all seven prognostic factors, had a sensitivity and specificity of 80% and 94%, respectively. Score II, which excluded hypotension, had a sensitivity and specificity of 73.3% and 89.7%, respectively. Quick and simple scoring scales are therefore not only applicable but useful for the case management of patients in meningococcal epidemics in developing countries. PMID:9648355

  17. Fuzzy logic-based prognostic score for outcome prediction in esophageal cancer.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chang-Yu; Lee, Tsair-Fwu; Fang, Chun-Hsiung; Chou, Jyh-Horng

    2012-11-01

    Given the poor prognosis of esophageal cancer and the invasiveness of combined modality treatment, improved prognostic scoring systems are needed. We developed a fuzzy logic-based system to improve the predictive performance of a risk score based on the serum concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin in a cohort of 271 patients with esophageal cancer before radiotherapy. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were employed to validate the independent prognostic value of the fuzzy risk score. To further compare the predictive performance of the fuzzy risk score with other prognostic scoring systems, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used. Application of fuzzy logic to the serum values of CRP and albumin increased predictive performance for 1-year overall survival (AUC=0.773) compared with that of a single marker (AUC=0.743 and 0.700 for CRP and albumin, respectively), where the AUC denotes the area under curve. This fuzzy logic-based approach also performed consistently better than the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) (AUC=0.745). Thus, application of fuzzy logic to the analysis of serum markers can more accurately predict the outcome for patients with esophageal cancer.

  18. Enumerating Bone Marrow Blasts from Nonerythroid Cellularity Improves Outcome Prediction in Myelodysplastic Syndromes and Permits a Better Definition of the Intermediate Risk Category of the Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R).

    PubMed

    Calvo, Xavier; Arenillas, Leonor; Luño, Elisa; Senent, Leonor; Arnan, Montserrat; Ramos, Fernando; Pedro, Carme; Tormo, Mar; Montoro, Julia; Díez-Campelo, María; Blanco, María Laura; Arrizabalaga, Beatriz; Xicoy, Blanca; Bonanad, Santiago; Jerez, Andrés; Nomdedeu, Meritxell; Ana, Ferrer; Sanz, Guillermo F; Florensa, Lourdes

    2017-03-28

    The Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) has been recognized as the score with the best outcome prediction capability in MDS, but this brought new concerns about the accurate prognostication of patients classified into the intermediate risk category. The correct enumeration of blasts is essential in prognostication of MDS. Recent data evidenced that considering blasts from nonerythroid cellularity (NECs) improves outcome prediction in the context of IPSS and WHO classification. We assessed the percentage of blasts from total nucleated cells (TNCs) and NECs in 3,924 MDS patients from the GESMD, 498 of whom were MDS with erythroid predominance (MDS-E). We assessed if calculating IPSS-R by enumerating blasts from NECs improves prognostication of MDS. 24% patients classified into the intermediate category were reclassified into higher-risk categories and showed shorter overall survival (OS) and time to AML evolution than those who remained into the intermediate one. Likewise, a better distribution of patients was observed, since lower-risk patients showed longer survivals than previously whereas higher-risk ones maintained the outcome expected in this poor prognostic group (median OS<20 months). Furthermore, our approach was particularly useful for detecting patients at risk of dying with AML. Regarding MDS-E, 51% patients classified into the intermediate category were reclassified into higher-risk ones and showed shorter OS and time to AML. In this subgroup of MDS, IPSS-R was capable of splitting our series in five groups with significant differences in OS only when blasts were assessed from NECs. In conclusion, our easy-applicable approach improves prognostic assessment of MDS patients. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  19. Immunization-based scores as independent prognostic predictors in soft tissue sarcoma patients

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Shan-Shan; Jiang, Long; Weng, De-Sheng; Li, Yuan-fang; Pan, Qiu-Zhong; Zhao, Jing-Jing; Tang, Yan; Zhou, Zhi-Wei; Xia, Jian-Chuan

    2017-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study was to examine and compare the prognostic value of different immunization-based scoring systems in patients with soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Methods: We conducted a retrospective study evaluating a cohort of 165 patients diagnosed with STS between July 2007 and July 2014. The relative Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) of these patients was calculated using 3 different systems: the traditional GPS system (tGPS), the modified GPS system 1 (m1GPS), and the modified GPS system 2 (m2GPS). Then, we evaluated the relationships between each GPS system and clinicopathological characteristics. The mean follow-up for survivors in the cohort was 73.7 months as of March 2015. Results: The most favorable overall survival (OS) rate was associated with the score 0 groups, and the poorest progression-free survival (PFS) rate was associated with the score 2 groups, regardless of which system was used to calculate the score. Specifically, the m1GPS provided the greatest accuracy in predicting OS and PFS. Moreover, the same effect was observed in a separate analysis restricted to patients with metastases. Remarkably, in patients with a score of 2 as measured by all 3 systems, local treatment resulted in a poorer prognosis compared to patients with a score of 2 who did not receive local treatment. Conclusion: The GPS is a valuable prognostic marker and has the capability to predict the appropriate treatment strategy for STS patients with metastases. The modified GPS systems demonstrated superior prognostic and predictive value compared with the traditional GPS system. PMID:28367240

  20. Adjusting a prognostic score for burned children with logistic regression.

    PubMed

    Demirdjian, G

    1997-01-01

    This study was aimed at the adjustment and cross-validation of a prognostic score for burned children on hospital admission. DEMI score assesses seven risk factors related to four main topics: depth (percent of partial-thickness and full-thickness burn), extension (percent of total body surface area burned and injury to dorso-gluteal area), morbidity on admission (preexisting illness and complications caused by inadequate transfer), and presence of Inhalation syndrome. These items were selected in a previous case control study with bivariate analysis on an estimation sample of 168 children with acute burns admitted to the burn unit of the Hospital de Pediatria Juan P. Garrahan between July 1991 and October 1993. This study uses the same retrospective sample to adjust this score by means of multivariate analysis. Only four items were included in the logistic regression formula: percentage total body surface area burned, inadequate transfer, inhalation syndrome, and dorso-gluteal affection. Resulting abbreviation of DEMI score was then cross-validated on a prospective validation sample of 137 patients, yielding high correlation with the outcome (R = 0.78) and high sensitivity (80.95%), specificity (96.55%), and positive (80.95%) and negative (96.55%) predictive values. We conclude that this new DEMI score is a simple and accurate tool to predict mortality risk in burned children.

  1. The prognostic value of a QRS score during exercise testing.

    PubMed

    Michaelides, Andreas P; Aigyprladou, Maria-Niki K; Andrikopoulos, George K; Richter, Dimitris J; Kartalis, Athanasios; Tapanlis, Evstratios; Fourlas, Christros A; Stefanadis, Christodoulos I

    2005-08-01

    Values of a QRS score have been positively related to the number of narrowed coronary arteries and to the extent of myocardial ischemia in radionuclide imaging techniques. This study was conducted to evaluate the potential prognostic information of abnormal values of this QRS score during treadmill exercise testing in patients with established coronary artery disease (CAD). In all, 309 patients (258 men, 51 women, mean age 56.1 +/- 10.0 years) with documented CAD, underwent a treadmill exercise test and coronary arteriography at baseline. Subsequently, they were prospectively followed to a maximum of 36 months (mean follow-up 23 +/- 13 months, median 25 months). During the follow-up period, 20 patients (6.5%) died from acute myocardial infarction. Abnormal QRS score values were found to be significantly and independently associated with cardiac mortality (QRS < or = -4: relative risk 11.7; 95% confidence interval = 2.5-55.4; p = 0.002). Taking into consideration the importance of exercise testing in the management of ischemic heart disease, the use of this QRS score could be of clinical value in predicting the outcome of patients with documented CAD.

  2. Predicting survival in malignant pleural effusion: development and validation of the LENT prognostic score.

    PubMed

    Clive, Amelia O; Kahan, Brennan C; Hooper, Clare E; Bhatnagar, Rahul; Morley, Anna J; Zahan-Evans, Natalie; Bintcliffe, Oliver J; Boshuizen, Rogier C; Fysh, Edward T H; Tobin, Claire L; Medford, Andrew R L; Harvey, John E; van den Heuvel, Michel M; Lee, Y C Gary; Maskell, Nick A

    2014-12-01

    Malignant pleural effusion (MPE) causes debilitating breathlessness and predicting survival is challenging. This study aimed to obtain contemporary data on survival by underlying tumour type in patients with MPE, identify prognostic indicators of overall survival and develop and validate a prognostic scoring system. Three large international cohorts of patients with MPE were used to calculate survival by cell type (univariable Cox model). The prognostic value of 14 predefined variables was evaluated in the most complete data set (multivariable Cox model). A clinical prognostic scoring system was then developed and validated. Based on the results of the international data and the multivariable survival analysis, the LENT prognostic score (pleural fluid lactate dehydrogenase, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance score (PS), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and tumour type) was developed and subsequently validated using an independent data set. Risk stratifying patients into low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups gave median (IQR) survivals of 319 days (228-549; n=43), 130 days (47-467; n=129) and 44 days (22-77; n=31), respectively. Only 65% (20/31) of patients with a high-risk LENT score survived 1 month from diagnosis and just 3% (1/31) survived 6 months. Analysis of the area under the receiver operating curve revealed the LENT score to be superior at predicting survival compared with ECOG PS at 1 month (0.77 vs 0.66, p<0.01), 3 months (0.84 vs 0.75, p<0.01) and 6 months (0.85 vs 0.76, p<0.01). The LENT scoring system is the first validated prognostic score in MPE, which predicts survival with significantly better accuracy than ECOG PS alone. This may aid clinical decision making in this diverse patient population. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  3. The prognostic value of initial blood lactate concentration measurements in very low birthweight infants and their use in development of a new disease severity scoring system.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Louise A; Dewhurst, Chris J; Yoxall, Charles William

    2011-07-01

    To investigate the predictive value of the Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB) score in current practise, the predictive value of blood lactate concentrations ([L]) and to develop a new clinical scoring system for very low birthweight (VLBW) babies. The predictive ability of CRIB, [L] and the development of the new score was based on retrospective data collected from all inborn VLBW babies born between March 2001 and February 2004 in a tertiary neonatal unit. Predictive ability was determined from area under the receiver operator curve (AUC). A new score was developed and validated with a second cohort of VLBW babies. 408 babies were studied in the development cohort and 275 in the validation cohort. AUC for CRIB was 0.933 (95% CI 0.897-0.969). Initial [L] was significantly higher in babies who died than in those who survived (median (range) 9.2 (1.26-21.1) vs 3.64 (0.67- 17.9) mmol/l, p<0.0001) as was the highest [L] in the first 12 h (10.2 (3.37-26) vs 3.84 (1.05-20.7) mmol/l, p<0.0001). A new score was developed using; highest [L], gestation and the presence of life-threatening malformation. AUC for the new score was 0.918 (95% CI 0.876-0.961) in the development cohort and 0.859 (95% CI 0.805-0.913) in the validation cohort. CRIB score retains its predictive ability for mortality in VLBW babies. Early hyperlactataemia is a predictor of death in VLBW babies. The new score appears to perform as well as CRIB but requires fewer data items.

  4. The Prognostic Scoring System Establishment and Validation for Chronic Atrial Fibrillation Patients Receiving Modified Cox-Maze IV and Concomitant Cardiac Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Jen-Ping; Tsai, Feng-Chang; Chu, Jaw-Ji; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Traditional Cox maze III is the gold standard for treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). Because of its invasiveness, it has been replaced by a simplified procedure involving radiofrequency ablation of modified Cox maze IV. Although the modified Cox maze IV has the advantages of simplicity and less morbidity, a lower rate of sinus rhythm conversion has been reported. We try to establish a scoring system to predict the outcome of this procedure. Methods and Results The derivation group consisted of 287 patients with structural heart disease and chronic AF who underwent cardiac surgery and modified Cox-maze IV procedure between August 2005 and March 2013. Demographics, clinical and laboratory variables were retrospectively collected as sinus conversional predictors. Overall sinus conversion rate was 75.8%. The parameters of the Soft Markers Scoring system included AF duration, preoperative left atrial (LA) size, rheumatic pathology and postoperative LA remodeling. We compared 80 patients from another hospital between January 2004 and December 2011 as a validation group to evaluate the power of the scoring system. Soft Markers Score indicated a good discriminative power by using the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC: 0.759 ± 0.032). The score was further divided into three groups: low (0-2), intermediate (3-5), and high (6-10), with predicted sinus conversion rates of 92.4%, 74.2%, and 47.8%, respectively. Conclusions In patients with chronic AF receiving modified Cox-maze IV procedure, the Soft Markers Score demonstrated good discriminative power of predicting sinus recovery in our patients and applied well to the other validation populations. PMID:26067656

  5. Prognostic Value of TIMI Score versus GRACE Score in ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    PubMed Central

    Correia, Luis C. L.; Garcia, Guilherme; Kalil, Felipe; Ferreira, Felipe; Carvalhal, Manuela; Oliveira, Ruan; Silva, André; Vasconcelos, Isis; Henri, Caio; Noya-Rabelo, Márcia

    2014-01-01

    Background The TIMI Score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) was created and validated specifically for this clinical scenario, while the GRACE score is generic to any type of acute coronary syndrome. Objective Between TIMI and GRACE scores, identify the one of better prognostic performance in patients with STEMI. Methods We included 152 individuals consecutively admitted for STEMI. The TIMI and GRACE scores were tested for their discriminatory ability (C-statistics) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow) in relation to hospital death. Results The TIMI score showed equal distribution of patients in the ranges of low, intermediate and high risk (39 %, 27 % and 34 %, respectively), as opposed to the GRACE Score that showed predominant distribution at low risk (80 %, 13 % and 7%, respectively). Case-fatality was 11%. The C-statistics of the TIMI score was 0.87 (95%CI = 0.76 to 0.98), similar to GRACE (0.87, 95%CI = 0.75 to 0.99) - p = 0.71. The TIMI score showed satisfactory calibration represented by χ2 = 1.4 (p = 0.92), well above the calibration of the GRACE score, which showed χ2 = 14 (p = 0.08). This calibration is reflected in the expected incidence ranges for low, intermediate and high risk, according to the TIMI score (0 %, 4.9 % and 25 %, respectively), differently to GRACE (2.4%, 25% and 73%), which featured middle range incidence inappropriately. Conclusion Although the scores show similar discriminatory capacity for hospital death, the TIMI score had better calibration than GRACE. These findings need to be validated populations of different risk profiles. PMID:25029471

  6. A genomic score prognostic of outcome in trauma patients.

    PubMed

    Warren, H Shaw; Elson, Constance M; Hayden, Douglas L; Schoenfeld, David A; Cobb, J Perren; Maier, Ronald V; Moldawer, Lyle L; Moore, Ernest E; Harbrecht, Brian G; Pelak, Kimberly; Cuschieri, Joseph; Herndon, David N; Jeschke, Marc G; Finnerty, Celeste C; Brownstein, Bernard H; Hennessy, Laura; Mason, Philip H; Tompkins, Ronald G

    2009-01-01

    Traumatic injuries frequently lead to infection, organ failure, and death. Health care providers rely on several injury scoring systems to quantify the extent of injury and to help predict clinical outcome. Physiological, anatomical, and clinical laboratory analytic scoring systems (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE], Injury Severity Score [ISS]) are utilized, with limited success, to predict outcome following injury. The recent development of techniques for measuring the expression level of all of a person's genes simultaneously may make it possible to develop an injury scoring system based on the degree of gene activation. We hypothesized that a peripheral blood leukocyte gene expression score could predict outcome, including multiple organ failure, following severe blunt trauma. To test such a scoring system, we measured gene expression of peripheral blood leukocytes from patients within 12 h of traumatic injury. cRNA derived from whole blood leukocytes obtained within 12 h of injury provided gene expression data for the entire genome that were used to create a composite gene expression score for each patient. Total blood leukocytes were chosen because they are active during inflammation, which is reflective of poor outcome. The gene expression score combines the activation levels of all the genes into a single number which compares the patient's gene expression to the average gene expression in uninjured volunteers. Expression profiles from healthy volunteers were averaged to create a reference gene expression profile which was used to compute a difference from reference (DFR) score for each patient. This score described the overall genomic response of patients within the first 12 h following severe blunt trauma. Regression models were used to compare the association of the DFR, APACHE, and ISS scores with outcome. We hypothesized that patients with a total gene response more different from uninjured volunteers would tend to have poorer

  7. The prognostic significance of the Birmingham Vasculitis Activity Score (BVAS) with systemic vasculitis patients transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU)

    PubMed Central

    Biscetti, Federico; Carbonella, Angela; Parisi, Federico; Bosello, Silvia Laura; Schiavon, Franco; Padoan, Roberto; Gremese, Elisa; Ferraccioli, Gianfranco

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Systemic vasculitides represent a heterogeneous group of diseases that share clinical features including respiratory distress, renal dysfunction, and neurologic disorders. These diseases may often cause life-threatening complications requiring admission to an intensive care unit (ICU). The aim of the study was to evaluate the validity and responsiveness of Birmingham Vasculitis Activity Score (BVAS) score to predict survival in patients with systemic vasculitides admitted to ICU. A retrospective study was carried out from 2004 to 2014 in 18 patients with systemic vasculitis admitted to 2 different Rheumatology divisions and transferred to ICU due to clinical worsening, with a length of stay beyond 24 hours. We found that ICU mortality was significantly associated with higher BVAS scores performed in the ward (P = 0.01) and at the admission in ICU (P = 0.01), regardless of the value of Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) scores (P = 0.50). We used receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to evaluate the possible cutoff value for the BVAS in the ward and in ICU and we found that a BVAS > 8 in the ward and that a BVAS > 10 in ICU might be a useful tool to predict in-ICU mortality. BVAS appears to be an excellent tool for assessing ICU mortality risk of systemic vasculitides patients admitted to specialty departments. Our experience has shown that performing the assessment at admission to the ward is more important than determining the evaluation before the clinical aggravation causing the transfer to ICU. PMID:27902615

  8. Volleyball Scoring Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calhoun, William; Dargahi-Noubary, G. R.; Shi, Yixun

    2002-01-01

    The widespread interest in sports in our culture provides an excellent opportunity to catch students' attention in mathematics and statistics classes. One mathematically interesting aspect of volleyball, which can be used to motivate students, is the scoring system. (MM)

  9. Volleyball Scoring Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calhoun, William; Dargahi-Noubary, G. R.; Shi, Yixun

    2002-01-01

    The widespread interest in sports in our culture provides an excellent opportunity to catch students' attention in mathematics and statistics classes. One mathematically interesting aspect of volleyball, which can be used to motivate students, is the scoring system. (MM)

  10. Development of a prognostic score for work disability in Romanian patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

    PubMed

    Oancea, Corina; Mihai, Carina; Gherman, Despina; Milicescu, Mihaela; Ancuta, Ioan; Martin, Andrei; Bojinca, Mihai; Stoica, Victor; Ciuvica, Maria Magdalena

    2015-01-01

    To develop a prognostic score for predicting work disability (WD) in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) as strong indicator for poor vocational rehabilitation. A cross-sectional study was performed in a group of 170 patients with AS, 120 work disabled and 50 still employed. The variables strongly associated with WD were quantified (scored 0-30) - abnormalities of: anterior-posterior radiograph of pelvis, lateral cervical spine radiograph and lung function tests, certain work factors (occupation, physical strain and microclimate), Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Mobility Index and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index tests. The eight-item score identifies WD with sensitivity of 91.7% and specificity of 85.7%. The scaling properties were fulfilled: internal consistency - Chronbach's alpha 0.73; reliability - intraclass correlation coefficient 0.73; redundancy weak-moderate, with coefficients ranging from 0.032 to 0.797; the discriminative capacity by the significant variations of the score according to the statute (employed or work disabled) and the degree of WD. The score is a reliable method for assessing the WD risk in patients with AS. It allows a complex evaluation by performing minimal investigations and it is easy to perform. Work disability is an important outcome in AS, determined by numerous variables but highly dependent on the national characteristics of economy, social security and healthcare system. The prognostic score for work disability in AS not only contains medical but also socio-demographic and work-related factors and is expected to be a useful tool for specialists to guide the tertiary prevention-oriented rehabilitation measures. Our study suggests the prognostic score to be comprehensive, useful and a reliable method to assess the risk of work disability in AS.

  11. Development of the Post Cardiac Surgery (POCAS) prognostic score

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Introduction The risk of mortality in cardiac surgery is generally evaluated using preoperative risk-scale models. However, intraoperative factors may change the risk factors of patients, and the organism functionality parameters determined upon ICU admittance could therefore be more relevant in deciding operative mortality. The goals of this study were to find associations between the general parameters of organism functionality upon ICU admission and the operative mortality following cardiac operations, to develop a Post Cardiac Surgery (POCAS) Scale to define operative risk categories and to validate an operative mortality risk score. Methods We conducted a prospective study, including 920 patients who had undergone cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. Several parameters recorded on their ICU admission were explored, looking for a univariate and multivariate association with in-hospital mortality (90 days). In-hospital mortality was 9%. Four independent factors were included in the POCAS mortality risk model: mean arterial pressure, bicarbonate, lactate and the International Normalized Ratio (INR). The POCAS scale was compared with four other risk scores in the validation series. Results In-hospital mortality (90 days) was 9%. Four independent factors were included in the POCAS mortality risk model: mean arterial pressure, bicarbonate ratio, lactate ratio and the INR. The POCAS scale was compared with four other risk scores in the validation series. Discriminatory power (accuracy) was defined with a receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. The best accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality (90 days) was achieved by POCAS. The areas under the ROC curves of the different systems analyzed were 0.890 (POCAS), followed by 0.847 (Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAP II)), 0.825 (Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA)), 0.768 (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II)), 0.754 (logistic EuroSCORE), 0.714 (standard EuroSCORE

  12. Prognostic Analysis System and Methods of Operation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    MacKey, Ryan M. E. (Inventor); Sneddon, Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A prognostic analysis system and methods of operating the system are provided. In particular, a prognostic analysis system for the analysis of physical system health applicable to mechanical, electrical, chemical and optical systems and methods of operating the system are described herein.

  13. Prognostic stratification of patients with vasospastic angina: a comprehensive clinical risk score developed by the Japanese Coronary Spasm Association.

    PubMed

    Takagi, Yusuke; Takahashi, Jun; Yasuda, Satoshi; Miyata, Satoshi; Tsunoda, Ryusuke; Ogata, Yasuhiro; Seki, Atsushi; Sumiyoshi, Tetsuya; Matsui, Motoyuki; Goto, Toshikazu; Tanabe, Yasuhiko; Sueda, Shozo; Sato, Toshiaki; Ogawa, Satoshi; Kubo, Norifumi; Momomura, Shin-Ichi; Ogawa, Hisao; Shimokawa, Hiroaki

    2013-09-24

    The present study aimed to develop a comprehensive clinical risk score for vasospastic angina (VSA) patients. Previous studies demonstrated various prognostic factors of future adverse events in VSA patients. However, to apply these prognostic factors in clinical practice, the assessment of their accumulation in individual patients is important. The patient database of the multicenter registry study by the Japanese Coronary Spasm Association (JCSA) (n = 1,429; median 66 years; median follow-up 32 months) was utilized for score derivation. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard model selected 7 predictors of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). The integer score was assigned to each predictors proportional to their respective adjusted hazard ratio; history of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (4 points), smoking, angina at rest alone, organic coronary stenosis, multivessel spasm (2 points each), ST-segment elevation during angina, and beta-blocker use (1 point each). According to the total score in individual patients, 3 risk strata were defined; low (score 0 to 2, n = 598), intermediate (score 3 to 5, n = 639) and high (score 6 or more, n = 192). The incidences of MACE in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients were 2.5%, 7.0%, and 13.0%, respectively (p < 0.001). The Cox model for MACE between the 3 risk strata also showed prognostic utility of the scoring system in various clinical subgroups. The average prediction rate of the scoring system in the internal training and validation sets were 86.6% and 86.5%, respectively. We developed a novel scoring system, the JCSA risk score, which may provide the comprehensive risk assessment and prognostic stratification for VSA patients. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. C-reactive protein/albumin ratio as prognostic score in oral squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Many studies have examined histopathological factors and various prognostic scores related to inflammation to predict outcomes. Here, we examined the prognostic value of the C-reactive protein/albumin (CRP/alb) ratio in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Materials and Methods This retrospective study included 40 patients with OSCC. Using univariate and multivariate analyses, we focused on the correlation of the CRP/alb ratio with clinicopathological characteristics and with overall survival. We then compared five inflammation-based prognostic scores, CRP/alb ratio, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI), based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The optimal cut-off value for the CRP/alb ratio was 0.085. The group with a high CRP/alb ratio had a high TNM clinical stage (P=0.002) and larger primary tumors (P=0.029), with statistically significant differences in lymph node metastasis and distant metastasis. In addition, when the CRP/alb ratio was high, multivariate analysis showed a lower survival rate (P=0.002; hazard ratio=6.078), and the ROC curve showed more outstanding discriminatory ability regarding overall survival compared to other inflammation-based prognostic scores. Conclusion The CRP/alb ratio can be an independent prognostic factor when predicting prognosis in OSCC and has good prognostic ability. PMID:27847731

  15. Scoring of Prognostic Parameters in Patients with Unresectable Advanced or Recurrent Colorectal Cancer Undergoing Chemotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Ikeguchi, Masahide; Shimoda, Ryugo; Yamamoto, Manabu; Maeta, Yoshihiko; Ashida, Keigo; Saito, Hiroaki

    2013-01-01

    Background Suitable chemotherapy is needed to prolong the survival of patients with unresectable advanced or recurrent colorectal cancer. We scored the periodical changes of several prognostic markers during chemotherapy in patients with this type of cancer to discern the effectiveness of chemotherapy. Methods Twenty consecutive patients with unresectable advanced or recurrent colorectal cancer were enrolled. All patients underwent combination chemotherapy with oxaliplatin or irinotecan plus 5-fluorouracil/leucovorin. Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), serum C-reactive protein (CRP), serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and serum albumin (ALB) were compared between the two periods (before chemotherapy and 3 months after it was started) in each patient. The scoring system was as follows: points are added when a patient shows a decrease of NLR, CRP and CEA and an increase of ALB at 3 months after the start of chemotherapy with a possible final score of +4. On the other hand, points are reduced if a patient shows an elevation of NLR, CRP and CEA and a decrease of ALB at 3 months after the start of chemotherapy with a possible final score of −4. Results At 3 months after the start of first line chemotherapy, 13 patients showed positive scores but 7 patients showed zero or minus scores. According to our scoring system, we found the mean survival time (MST) of the 13 patients with plus scores was 34 months and this was significantly better than that of the 7 patients who showed zero or minus scores (P = 0.0008). Conclusion Our new scoring system is useful but when we find that first line chemotherapy is ineffective, we need to change it to second line chemotherapy as soon as possible. That may be the best treatment for patients with unresectable advanced or recurrent colorectal cancer. PMID:24179314

  16. The Basilar Artery on Computed Tomography Angiography Prognostic Score for Basilar Artery Occlusion.

    PubMed

    Alemseged, Fana; Shah, Darshan G; Diomedi, Marina; Sallustio, Fabrizio; Bivard, Andrew; Sharma, Gagan; Mitchell, Peter J; Dowling, Richard J; Bush, Steven; Yan, Bernard; Caltagirone, Carlo; Floris, Roberto; Parsons, Mark W; Levi, Christopher R; Davis, Stephen M; Campbell, Bruce C V

    2017-03-01

    Basilar artery occlusion is associated with high risk of disability and mortality. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of a new radiological score: the Basilar Artery on Computed Tomography Angiography (BATMAN) score. A retrospective analysis of consecutive stroke patients with basilar artery occlusion diagnosed on computed tomographic angiography was performed. BATMAN score is a 10-point computed tomographic angiography-based grading system which incorporates thrombus burden and the presence of collaterals. Reliability was assessed with intraclass coefficient correlation. Good outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score of ≤3 at 3 months and successful reperfusion as thrombolysis in cerebral infarction 2b-3. BATMAN score was externally validated and compared with the Posterior Circulation Collateral score. The derivation cohort included 83 patients with 41 in the validation cohort. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, BATMAN score had an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7-0.9) in derivation cohort and an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.6-0.9) in validation cohort. In logistic regression adjusted for age and clinical severity, BATMAN score of <7 was associated with poor outcome in derivation cohort (odds ratio, 5.5; 95% CI, 1.4-21; P=0.01), in validation cohort (odds ratio, 6.9; 95% CI, 1.4-33; P=0.01), and in endovascular patients, after adjustment for recanalization and time to treatment (odds ratio, 4.8; 95% CI, 1.2-18; P=0.01). BATMAN score of <7 was not associated with recanalization. Interrater agreement was substantial (intraclass coefficient correlation, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.8-0.9). BATMAN score had greater accuracy compared with Posterior Circulation Collateral score (P=0.04). The addition of collateral quality to clot burden in BATMAN score seems to improve prognostic accuracy in basilar artery occlusion patients. © 2017

  17. Prognostic score–based balance measures for propensity score methods in comparative effectiveness research

    PubMed Central

    Stuart, Elizabeth A.; Lee, Brian K.; Leacy, Finbarr P.

    2013-01-01

    Objective Examining covariate balance is the prescribed method for determining when propensity score methods are successful at reducing bias. This study assessed the performance of various balance measures, including a proposed balance measure based on the prognostic score (also known as the disease-risk score), to determine which balance measures best correlate with bias in the treatment effect estimate. Study Design and Setting The correlations of multiple common balance measures with bias in the treatment effect estimate produced by weighting by the odds, subclassification on the propensity score, and full matching on the propensity score were calculated. Simulated data were used, based on realistic data settings. Settings included both continuous and binary covariates and continuous covariates only. Results The standardized mean difference in prognostic scores, the mean standardized mean difference, and the mean t-statistic all had high correlations with bias in the effect estimate. Overall, prognostic scores displayed the highest correlations of all the balance measures considered. Prognostic score measure performance was generally not affected by model misspecification and performed well under a variety of scenarios. Conclusion Researchers should consider using prognostic score–based balance measures for assessing the performance of propensity score methods for reducing bias in non-experimental studies. PMID:23849158

  18. Prognostic value of inflammation-based scores in patients with osteosarcoma

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Bangjian; Huang, Yujing; Sun, Yuanjue; Zhang, Jianjun; Yao, Yang; Shen, Zan; Xiang, Dongxi; He, Aina

    2016-01-01

    Systemic inflammation responses have been associated with cancer development and progression. C-reactive protein (CRP), Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), and neutrophil-platelet score (NPS) have been shown to be independent risk factors in various types of malignant tumors. This retrospective analysis of 162 osteosarcoma cases was performed to estimate their predictive value of survival in osteosarcoma. All statistical analyses were performed by SPSS statistical software. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was generated to set optimal thresholds; area under the curve (AUC) was used to show the discriminatory abilities of inflammation-based scores; Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to plot the survival curve; cox regression models were employed to determine the independent prognostic factors. The optimal cut-off points of NLR, PLR, and LMR were 2.57, 123.5 and 4.73, respectively. GPS and NLR had a markedly larger AUC than CRP, PLR and LMR. High levels of CRP, GPS, NLR, PLR, and low level of LMR were significantly associated with adverse prognosis (P < 0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that GPS, NLR, and occurrence of metastasis were top risk factors associated with death of osteosarcoma patients. PMID:28008988

  19. Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Bregon, Anibal

    2015-01-01

    Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

  20. Early lenalidomide treatment for low and intermediate-1 International Prognostic Scoring System risk myelodysplastic syndromes with del(5q) before transfusion dependence.

    PubMed

    Oliva, Esther N; Lauseker, Michael; Aloe Spiriti, Maria Antonietta; Poloni, Antonella; Cortelezzi, Agostino; Palumbo, Giuseppe A; Balleari, Enrico; Sanpaolo, Grazia; Volpe, Antonio; Ricco, Alessandra; Ronco, Francesca; Alati, Caterina; D'Errigo, Maria Grazia; Santacaterina, Irene; Kündgen, Andrea; Germing, Ulrich; Latagliata, Roberto

    2015-12-01

    Lenalidomide is approved for the treatment of transfusion-dependent (TD) del(5q) myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). However, few data are available in patients with transfusion-independent (TI) del(5q) MDS. In the first, observational, part of this 2-part study, we assessed the impact of transfusion dependence on overall survival (OS) and non-leukemic death in untreated del(5q) MDS patients who were TD (n = 136), TI with hemoglobin (Hb) ≥10 mg/dL (n = 88), or TI with Hb <10 mg/dL (n = 96). In the second, interventional, part we assessed the quality-of-life (QoL) benefits and clinical efficacy of lenalidomide (10 mg/day) in 12 patients with TI del(5q) MDS and Hb <10 mg/dL. In the untreated population, OS was significantly longer in TI than in TD patients (TI [Hb ≥10 g/dL], 108 months; TI [Hb <10 g/dL], 77 months; TD, 44 months). Transfusion dependence also negatively impacted non-leukemic death rates. In the interventional part of the study, baseline Hb levels were found to correlate significantly with physical (R = 0.666, P = 0.035) and fatigue (R = 0.604, P = 0.049) QoL scores. Median physical QoL scores improved significantly after 12 weeks' treatment with lenalidomide (+12.5; P = 0.020). Evaluable TI patients experienced early increases in Hb levels, and all attained an erythroid response. Our findings suggest that TI patients with moderate anemia may benefit from early treatment with lenalidomide.

  1. Cryocooler Prognostic Health Management System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shah, A.; Penswick, L.; Dodson, C.; Roberts, T.

    2008-03-01

    High performance sensors are playing an increasingly important role in all aspects of all critical DoD missions. There is a family of sensors that operate with improved sensitivities if cooled to very low (cryogenic) temperatures. For these sensors, a healthy and reliable mechanical refrigeration system (cryocooler) is required. The ability to accurately predict the "health" or remaining useful life of the cryocooler has significant benefits from the viewpoint of ensuring that mission critical functions can be carried out with a high probability of success. The paper provides an overview and approaches used for the development of a Cryocooler Prognostic Health Management System (CPHMS) capable of assessing the cryocooler "health" from the viewpoint of the level of performance degradation and/or the potential for near term failure. Additionally, it quantifies the reliable remaining useful life of the cryocooler. While the proposed system is focused on the specific application to linear drive cryocoolers, especially for DoD, many of the attributes of the system can be applied to other specialized system hardware in both commercial and U.S. Government agency for situations where it is critical that all aspects of the hardware "health" and "remaining useful life" be fully understood. Several benefits of the health monitoring system are also described in the paper.

  2. Novel Inflammation-Based Prognostic Score for Predicting Survival in Patients with Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Su, Yu-Li; Hsieh, Meng-Che; Chiang, Po-Hui; Sung, Ming-Tse; Lan, Jui; Luo, Hao-Lun; Huang, Chun-Chieh; Huang, Cheng-Hua; Tang, Yeh; Rau, Kun-Ming

    2017-01-01

    Purpose We developed a novel inflammation-based model (NPS), which consisted of a neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet count (PC), for assessing the prognostic role in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC). Materials and Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of patients with metastatic UC who underwent systemic chemotherapy between January 1997 and December 2014 in Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital. The defined cutoff values for the NLR and PC were 3.0 and 400 × 103/μL, respectively. Patients were scored 1 for either an elevated NLR or PC, and 0 otherwise. The NPS was calculated by summing the scores, ranging from 0 to 2. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) by using Kaplan–Meier analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent prognostic factors for OS. Results In total, 256 metastatic UC patients were enrolled. Univariate analysis revealed that patients with either a high NLR or PC had a significantly shorter survival rate compared with those with a low NLR (P = .001) or PC (P < .0001). The median OS in patients with NPS 0, 1, and 2 was 19.0, 12.8, and 9.3 months, respectively (P < .0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that NPS, along with the histologic variant, liver metastasis, age, and white cell count, was an independent factor facilitating OS prediction (hazard ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.20–2.24, P = .002). Conclusion The NLR and PC are independent prognostic factors for OS in patients with metastatic UC. The NPS model has excellent discriminant ability for OS. PMID:28076369

  3. The Glasgow Prognostic Score Predicts Response to Chemotherapy in Patients with Metastatic Breast Cancer.

    PubMed

    Wang, Dexing; Duan, Li; Tu, Zhiquan; Yan, Fei; Zhang, Cuicui; Li, Xu; Cao, Yuzhu; Wen, Hongsheng

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer death in women worldwide. The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), a cumulative prognostic score based on C-reactive protein and albumin, indicates the presence of a systemic inflammatory response. The GPS has been adopted as a powerful prognostic tool for patients with various types of malignant tumors, including breast cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the value of the GPS in predicting the response and toxicity in breast cancer patients treated with chemotherapy. Patients with metastatic breast cancers in a progressive stage for consideration of chemotherapy were eligible. The clinical characteristics and demographics were recorded. The GPS was calculated before the onset of chemotherapy. Data on the response to chemotherapy and progression-free survival (PFS) were also collected. Objective tumor responses were evaluated according to Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST). Toxicities were graded according to National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (NCI-CTC) version 3.0 throughout therapy. In total, 106 breast cancer patients were recruited. The GPS was associated with the response rate (p = 0.05), the clinical benefit rate (p = 0.03), and PFS (p = 0.005). The GPS was the only independent predictor of PFS (p = 0.005). The GPS was significantly associated with neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, anorexia, nausea and vomiting, fatigue, and mucositis (p = 0.05-0.001). Our data demonstrate that GPS assessment is associated with poor clinical outcomes and severe chemotherapy-related toxicities in patients with metastatic breast cancer who have undergone chemotherapy, without any specific indication regarding the type of chemotherapy applied. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  4. The prognostic value of the wuerzburg bleb classification score for the outcome of trabeculectomy.

    PubMed

    Klink, Thomas; Kann, Gunda; Ellinger, Patrick; Klink, Janine; Grehn, Franz; Guthoff, Rainer

    2011-01-01

    the Wuerzburg bleb classification score (WBCS) aims at an objective and standardized assessment of the developing filtering bleb after trabeculectomy, in order to detect and treat bleb scarring at the earliest possible stage of development. The purpose of this retrospective study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the early postoperative WBCS for the long-term outcome of trabeculectomy. the WBCS is a grading system for clinical bleb morphology. It evaluates the following parameters: vascularization, corkscrew vessels, encapsulation and microcysts. The WBCS of 113 eyes of 113 consecutive patients after trabeculectomy was determined 1 day, 1 and 2 weeks, 3, 6 and 12 months after surgery. Complete success was defined as an intra-ocular pressure (IOP) <21 mm Hg and >20% pressure reduction without glaucoma medication after 1 year. a complete success rate of 73.9% and a qualified success rate of 82.4% were achieved 1 year after surgery. The average total bleb score during follow-up in the success group was always higher than in the failure group, but there was no statistically significant difference at any time. The bleb average score for eyes with an IOP of ≤ 12 mm Hg after 2 weeks was significantly higher (p = 0.005) than for eyes with an IOP ≥ 13 mm Hg at the end of follow-up. patients with a higher early WBCS postoperatively had a significantly lower IOP 1 year after surgery. However, the study could not reveal a certain prognostic value of the early total bleb score using the WBCS for the long-term complete success of trabeculectomy. 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  5. Prognostic value of lymphocyte/monocyte ratio in advanced Hodgkin lymphoma: correlation with International Prognostic Score and tumor associated macrophages.

    PubMed

    Jakovic, Ljubomir R; Mihaljevic, Biljana S; Andjelic, Bosko M; Bogdanovic, Andrija D; Perunicic Jovanovic, Maja D; Babic, Dragan D; Bumbasirevic, Vladimir Z

    2016-08-01

    We studied the prognostic significance of the absolute lymphocyte/monocyte count ratio (ALC/AMC), its contribution to the prognostic value of the International Prognostic Score (IPS), and evaluated if ALC/AMC could serve as a proxy for the frequency of CD68 + tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) in 101 patients with advanced Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve identified best cut-off values of 2.0 for ALC/AMC and 25% for CD68 + TAM. Patients with ALC/AMC < 2, IPS > 2 and > 25% CD68 + TAM had an inferior overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS). Spearman's test also uncovered a significant correlation between the ALC/AMC and TAM. Multivariate analysis identified ALC/AMC < 2, IPS > 2 and > 25% CD68 + TAM as poor prognostic factors of OS and EFS. After evaluating ALC/AMC and IPS, we stratified patients into three progressively-worse-outcome groups (low-risk: 0 risk factors; intermediate: 1 risk factor; high: 2 risk factors). Our study encourages the combination of ALC/AMC with IPS, for refining risk prediction in advanced HL patients.

  6. [Prognostic value of MR in term neonates with neonatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopath: MRI score and spectroscopy. About 26 cases].

    PubMed

    Meyer-Witte, S; Brissaud, O; Brun, M; Lamireau, D; Bordessoules, M; Chateil, J-F

    2008-01-01

    Neonatal hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy remains a major cause of chronic disability in childhood. Early diagnosis and prognosis are necessary for the clinician to adapt the treatment. However, there is yet no reliable test to predict the patient's evolution. The aim of our study was to evaluate the predictive value of a personal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scoring system and of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS). We included 26 term newborns in condition of neonatal brain suffering. MR examination was performed during the first week of life for all patients and MRI and MRS data were collected. Standardised follow-up visits were made for all patients. Finally, prognostic value of the different criteria was evaluated with statistical tests. Our MRI scoring system proved to be linked to prognosis. A high MRI score, abnormal signal in the internal capsule, white matter or basal ganglia abnormalities with diffusion imaging were associated with unfavourable outcome. These results confirmed the data of the literature concerning the MRI predictive value. Our study also confirmed prognostic interest of MR: particularly, ratios using lactate were significantly linked to prognosis in our study. Specificity of the elevation of these ratios was interesting but sensibility was less optimal. We suggest using our MRI scoring system which associates standard MRI and diffusion imaging, which is significantly related to outcome. We confirm the prognostic value of MRS in this pathological situation. MR with diffusion sequence and spectroscopy, performed three to four days after birth appears to be an essential tool to manage these patients.

  7. AKI-CLIF-SOFA: a novel prognostic score for critically ill cirrhotic patients with acute kidney injury

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Dan-Qin; Zheng, Chen-Fei; Liu, Wen-Yue; Van Poucke, Sven; Mao, Zhi; Shi, Ke-Qing; Wang, Xiao-Dong; Wang, Ji-Dong; Zheng, Ming-Hua

    2017-01-01

    Critically ill cirrhotic patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) are associated with high mortality rates. The aims of this study were to develop a specific prognostic score for critically ill cirrhotic patients with AKI, the acute kidney injury - Chronic Liver Failure - Sequential Organ Failure- Assessment score (AKI-CLIF-SOFA) score. This study focused on 527 cirrhotic patients with AKI admitted to intensive care unit and constructed a new scoring system, the AKI-CLIF-SOFA, which can be used to prognostically assess mortality in these patient population. Parameters included in this model were analysed by cox regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) of AKI-CLIF-SOFA scoring system was 0.74 in 30 days, 0.74 in 90 days, 0.72 in 270 days and 0.72 in 365 days. Additionally, this study demonstrated that the new model had more discriminatory power than chronic liver failure- sequential organ failure assessment score (CLIF-SOFA), SOFA, model for end stage liver disease (MELD), kidney disease improving global outcomes (KDIGO) and simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II) (auROC: 0.72, 0.66, 0.64, 0.62, 0.63 and 0.65 respectively, all P < 0.05) for the prediction of the 365-days mortality. Therefore, AKI-CLIF-SOFA demonstrated a valuable discriminative ability compared with KDIGO, CLIF-SOFA, MELD, SAPS II and SOFA in critically ill cirrhotic patients with AKI. PMID:28114104

  8. Prognostic Value of Gai's Plaque Score and Agatston Coronary Artery Calcium Score for Functionally Significant Coronary Artery Stenosis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Chuang; Yang, Shuang; Gai, Lu-Yue; Han, Zhi-Qi; Xin, Qian; Yang, Xiao-Bo; Yang, Jun-Jie; Jin, Qin-Hua

    2016-01-01

    Background: The prognostic values of the coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) score for predicting future cardiovascular events have been previously demonstrated in numerous studies. However, few studies have used the rich information available from CCTA to detect functionally significant coronary lesions. We sought to compare the prognostic values of Gai's plaque score and the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) of CCTA for predicting functionally significant coronary lesions, using fractional flow reserve (FFR) as the gold standard. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 107 visually assessed significant coronary lesions in 88 patients (mean age, 59.6 ± 10.2 years; 76.14% of males) who underwent CCTA, invasive coronary angiography, and invasive FFR measurement. An FFR <0.80 indicated hemodynamically significant coronary stenosis. Lesions were divided into two groups using an FFR cutoff value of 0.80. We compared Gai's plaque scores and CACS between the two groups and evaluated the correlations of these scores with FFR. The statistical methods included unpaired t-test, Mann-Whitney U-test, and Spearman's correlation coefficients. Results: Coronary lesions with FFR <0.80 had higher Gai's scores than those with FFR ≥0.80. Gai's score had the strongest correlation with FFR (r = −0.48, P < 0.01) and had a greater area under the curve = 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.61–0.82; P < 0.01) than the CACS of whole arteries and a single artery. Conclusions: Both CACS in a single artery and Gai's plaque score demonstrated a good capacity to assess functionally significant coronary artery stenosis when compared to the gold standard FFR. However, Gai's plaque score was more predictive of FFR <0.80. Gai's score can be easily calculated in daily clinical practice and could be used when considering revascularization. PMID:27900990

  9. [Radiotherapy of brain metastases according to the GPA score (Graded Prognostic Assessment)].

    PubMed

    Antoni, D; Noël, G

    2013-10-01

    The management of patients with brain metastases remains a difficult and controversial subject. For years, the standard treatment has been whole-brain radiation therapy alone, but its validity is now under question because of improvements in surgery and the development of radiosurgery or novel targeted therapies and also because whole-brain radiation therapy is responsible for long term neurocognitive toxicity. Therefore it is important to assess diagnosis-specific prognostic factors and indexes when scheduling treatments. The GPA score (Graded Prognostic Assessment), established for various histologic tumor types, includes five prognostic factors: age, Karnofsky Performance Status, presence of extracranial metastases, number of brain metastases and also genetic subtype for breast cancer. We propose an adaptation of the management of brain metastases according to the GPA score. Copyright © 2013 Société française de radiothérapie oncologique (SFRO). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. The preoperative sensitive-modified Glasgow prognostic score is superior to the modified Glasgow prognostic score in predicting long-term survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Tian, Rui; Zhang, Fei; Sun, Peng; Wu, Jing; Yan, Hong; Wu, Ai-Ran; Zhang, Min; Jiang, Yu-Lu; Lu, Yan-Hong; Xu, Qiu-Yan; Zhan, Xiao-Hong; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Qian, Li-Ting; He, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The present study was designed to investigate the prognostic significance of the preoperative sensitive-modified Glasgow prognostic score (S-mGPS) and its superiority in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Clinicopathologic characteristics, preoperative albumin and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were retrospectively collected in 442 patients who underwent transthoracic esophagectomy. The S-mGPS was calculated before surgery based on optimal cutoff values of 45.6 g/L for albumin and 10.0 mg/L for CRP. 360, 74 and 8 cases were assigned an mGPS of 0, 1 and 2, respectively. In contrast, the S-mGPS was 0 in 114, 1 in 258 and 2 in 70 patients. Of the 360 patients with an mGPS of 0, 246 migrated to the S-mGPS-1 group. Both mGPS and S-mGPS were significantly correlated with tumor length, depth of invasion, pathological tumor-node-metastasis (pTNM) stage and adjuvant treatment. In addition, they were significantly associated with disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in univariate analysis. Furthermore, multivariate Cox regression analysis identified S-mGPS as an independent prognostic indicator for both DFS [hazard ratio (HR), 1.577; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.149-2.163; P = 0.005] and OS (HR, 1.762; 95% CI, 1.250-2.484; P = 0.001), but not mGPS (HR, 0.957; 95% CI, 0.692-1.323; P = 0.790 for DFS and HR, 1.089; 95% CI, 0.781-1.517; P = 0.615 for OS, respectively). Moreover, subgroup analysis revealed that the prognostic impact of the S-mGPS was especially striking in pTNM stage II patients. The preoperative S-mGPS is superior to the mGPS as a prognostic predictor in patients with resectable ESCC. PMID:27528228

  11. Prealbumin/CRP Based Prognostic Score, a New Tool for Predicting Metastasis in Patients with Inoperable Gastric Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Esfahani, Ali; Makhdami, Nima; Faramarzi, Elnaz; Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Ostadrahimi, Alireza; Ghayour Nahand, Mousa; Ghoreishi, Zohreh

    2016-01-01

    Background. There is a considerable dissimilarity in the survival duration of the patients with gastric cancer. We aimed to assess the systemic inflammatory response (SIR) and nutritional status of these patients before the commencement of chemotherapy to find the appropriate prognostic factors and define a new score for predicting metastasis. Methods. SIR was assessed using Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS). Then a score was defined as prealbumin/CRP based prognostic score (PCPS) to be compared with GPS for predicting metastasis and nutritional status. Results. 71 patients with gastric cancer were recruited in the study. 87% of patients had malnutrition. There was a statistical difference between those with metastatic (n = 43) and those with nonmetastatic (n = 28) gastric cancer according to levels of prealbumin and CRP; however they were not different regarding patient generated subjective global assessment (PG-SGA) and GPS. The best cut-off value for prealbumin was determined at 0.20 mg/dL and PCPS could predict metastasis with 76.5% sensitivity, 63.6% specificity, and 71.4% accuracy. Metastatic and nonmetastatic gastric cancer patients were different in terms of PCPS (P = 0.005). Conclusion. PCPS has been suggested for predicting metastasis in patients with gastric cancer. Future studies with larger sample size have been warranted. PMID:26904109

  12. Prognostic value of Pheochromocytoma of the Adrenal Gland Scaled Score (Pass score) tests to separate benign from malignant neoplasms.

    PubMed

    Mlika, Mona; Kourda, Nadia; Zorgati, Mohamed Majdi; Bahri, Sonia; Ben Ammar, Slim; Zermani, Rachida

    2013-03-01

    Differentiating malignant from benign pheochromocytoma has been challenging when based on histologic features. This is due to the definition of malignant pheochromocytoma which are defined by the presence of metastases. A PASS score was developed and according to many authors, a PASS score> =4 identified potentially malignant tumors. To assess the prognostic value of PASS score in differentiating benign pheochromocytomas from malignant ones. The records of 11 patients with tumors diagnosed as "pheochromocytoma" were identified from 1970 to 2010 in the files of the pathology, intern medicine and biochemistry departments of the Charles Nicolle hospital and Pasteur Institute. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of PASS. The logistic model was developed using the 11 predictive variables. Its performance was evaluated by calculating the area under the ROC curve and comparing it with that of the PASS. In benign tumors, The PASS score was <4 in 3 cases and >=4 in 6 cases. In malignant tumors, the PASS score was >=4 in both cases. According to the ROC curve analysis, a PASS equal or superior to 4 identifies malignant pheochromocytoma with a sensitivity of 50% and a specificity of 45%. I think that PASS score, despite its low sensitivity, may help to reserve the more aggressive treatment and narrow follow up for potentially malignant tumors. Widespread of this called score with complete clinical data will help to validate these findings and to add other prognostic factors of value that could be a part of this scaled score such as immunohistochemical findings.

  13. Robustness of the neurological prognostic score in brain metastasis patients treated with Gamma Knife radiosurgery.

    PubMed

    Serizawa, Toru; Higuchi, Yoshinori; Nagano, Osamu; Matsuda, Shinji; Aoyagi, Kyoko; Ono, Junichi; Saeki, Naokatsu; Iwadate, Yasuo; Hirai, Tatsuo; Takemoto, Shinya; Shibamoto, Yuta

    2016-12-02

    OBJECTIVE The neurological prognostic score (NPS) was recently proposed as a means for predicting neurological outcomes, such as the preservation of neurological function and the prevention of neurological death, in brain metastasis patients treated with Gamma Knife radiosurgery (GKRS). NPS consists of 2 groups: Group A patients were expected to have better neurological outcomes, and Group B patients were expected to have poorer outcomes. NPS robustness was tested in various situations. METHODS In total, 3040 patients with brain metastases that were treated with GKRS were analyzed. The cumulative incidence of the loss of neurological function independence (i.e., neurological deterioration) was estimated using competing risk analysis, and NPS was compared between Groups A and B by employing Gray's model. NPS was tested to determine if it can be applied to 5 cancer categories-non-small cell lung cancer, small cell lung cancer, gastrointestinal tract cancer, breast cancer, and other cancers-as well as if it can be incorporated into the 5 major grading systems: recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), score index for stereotactic radiosurgery (SIR), basic score for brain metastases (BSBM), graded prognostic assessment (GPA), and modified-RPA (M-RPA). RESULTS There were 2263 patients in NPS Group A and 777 patients in Group B. Neurological deterioration was observed in 586 patients (19.2%). The cumulative incidences of neurological deterioration were 9.5% versus 21.0%, 14.1% versus 25.4%, and 17.6% versus 27.8% in NPS Groups A and B at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively. Significant differences were detected between the NPS groups in all cancer categories. There were significant differences between NPS Groups A and B for all classes in terms of the BSBM, GPA, and M-RPA systems, but the differences failed to reach statistical significance in terms of RPA Class I and SIR Class 0 to 3. CONCLUSIONS The NPS was verified as being highly applicable to all cancer categories and

  14. Outcome prediction in gastroschisis - The gastroschisis prognostic score (GPS) revisited.

    PubMed

    Puligandla, Pramod S; Baird, Robert; Skarsgard, Eric D; Emil, Sherif; Laberge, Jean-Martin

    2017-05-01

    The GPS enables risk stratification for gastroschisis and helps discriminate low from high morbidity groups. The purpose of this study was to revalidate GPS's characterization of a high morbidity group and to quantify relationships between the GPS and outcomes. With REB approval, complete survivor data from a national gastroschisis registry was collected. GPS bowel injury scoring was revalidated excluding the initial inception/validation cohorts (>2011). Length of stay (LOS), 1st enteral feed days (dFPO), TPN days (dTPN), and aggregate complications (COMP) were compared between low and high morbidity risk groups. Mathematical relationships between outcomes and integer increases in GPS were explored using the entire cohort (2005-present). Median (range) LOS, dPO, and dTPN for the entire cohort (n=849) was 36 (26,62), 13 (9,18), and 27 (20,46) days, respectively. High-risk patients (GPS≥2; n=80) experienced significantly worse outcomes than low risk patients (n=263). Each integer increase in GPS was associated with increases in LOS and dTPN by 16.9 and 12.7days, respectively (p<0.01). COMP rate was also increased in the high-risk cohort (46.3% vs. 22.8%; p<0.01). The GPS effectively discriminates low from high morbidity risk groups. Within the high risk group, integer increases in GPS produce quantitatively differentiated outcomes which may guide initial counseling and resource allocation. IIb. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Prognostic utility of CCP score in men with prostate cancer after primary external beam radiation therapy

    PubMed Central

    Freedland, Stephen; Gerber, Leah; Reid, Julia; Welbourn, William; Tikishvili, Eliso; Park, Jimmy; Younus, Adib; Gutin, Alexander; Sangale, Zaina; Lanchbury, Jerry S.; Salama, Joseph K.; Stone, Steven

    2013-01-01

    Purpose The cell cycle progression (CCP) score, a prognostic RNA signature based on the average expression level of 31 CCP genes, has been shown to predict biochemical recurrence (BCR) after prostatectomy and prostate cancer specific mortality in men undergoing observation. However, the value of the CCP score in men who received primary external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) is untested. Methods and Materials The CCP score was derived retrospectively from diagnostic biopsy specimens of men diagnosed with prostate cancer from 1991 to 2006 (n=141). All patients were treated with definitive EBRT; approximately half of the cohort was African-American. Outcome was time from EBRT to BCR using the Phoenix definition. Median follow-up for patients without BCR was 4.8 years. Association with outcome was evaluated by CoxPH survival analysis and likelihood ratio tests. Results Of 141 patients, 19 (13%) had BCR. The median CCP score for patient samples was 0.12. In univariable analysis, CCP score significantly predicted BCR (p-value = 0.0017). The hazard ratio (HR) for BCR was 2.55 for a one-unit increase in CCP score (equivalent to a doubling of gene expression). In a multivariable analysis with Gleason score, PSA, percent positive cores, and androgen deprivation therapy, the HR for CCP remained significant (p-value = 0.034), indicating that CCP provides prognostic information that is not provided by standard clinical parameters. With 10-year censoring, the CCP score was associated with prostate cancer specific mortality (p-value = 0.013). There was no evidence for interaction between CCP and any clinical variable, including ethnicity. Conclusions Among men treated with EBRT, the CCP score significantly predicated outcome and provided greater prognostic information than was available with clinical parameters. If validated in a larger cohort, CCP score could identify high-risk men undergoing EBRT who may need more aggressive therapy. PMID:23755923

  16. The predictive and prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score in metastatic colorectal carcinoma patients receiving bevacizumab.

    PubMed

    Maillet, Marianne; Dréanic, Johann; Dhooge, Marion; Mir, Olivier; Brezault, Catherine; Goldwasser, François; Chaussade, Stanislas; Coriat, Romain

    2014-11-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), based on C-reactive protein and albumin levels, has shown its prognostic value in metastatic colorectal carcinoma (mCRC) patients receiving conventional cytotoxic therapy. Bevacizumab, a monoclonal antibody to vascular epidermal growth factor, improves the overall survival in mCRC. The aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of GPS in mCRC patients receiving antivascular epidermal growth factor therapy. From August 2005 to August 2012, consecutive patients with mCRC who received chemotherapy plus bevacizumab were eligible for the present analysis. The clinical stage, C-reactive protein, albumin and the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were recorded at the time of initiation of bevacizumab. Patients received 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy plus bevacizumab in accordance with the digestive oncology multidisciplinary staff proposal and in line with the French recommendations for the treatment of mCRC. Eighty patients were eligible (colon n = 59, rectum n = 21), with a median follow-up of 14 months (range 1-58 months). Chemotherapy given with bevacizumab and 5-fluorouracil was oxaliplatin (n = 41, 51%) or irinotecan (n = 27, 34%). At baseline, 56, 31 and 13% of patients had a GPS of 0 (n = 45), 1 (n = 25) and 2 (n = 10), respectively. The median progression-free survival in these groups was 10.1, 6.5 and 5.6 months (P = 0.16), respectively. The median overall survival was 20.1, 11.4 and 6.5 months, respectively (P = 0.004). Our study confirmed the prognostic value of GPS in mCRC patients receiving chemotherapy plus bevacizumab. Given the poor survival observed in patients with an GPS of 2, studies dedicated to these patients could identify optimal treatment modalities.

  17. Prognostic value of the Glasgow Prognostic Score in metastatic colorectal cancer in the era of anti-EGFR therapies.

    PubMed

    Dréanic, Johann; Maillet, Marianne; Dhooge, Marion; Mir, Olivier; Brezault, Catherine; Goldwasser, François; Chaussade, Stanislas; Coriat, Romain

    2013-01-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), combination of C-reactive protein and albumin, has proven its prognostic value in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients receiving conventional cytotoxic therapy. More recently, anti-EGFR therapies have been validated in mCRC and roll forward the patients' overall survival (OS). We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of the GPS in patients receiving anti-EGFR therapy in addition to conventional chemotherapy. From January 2007 to February 2012, consecutive mCRC patients who received 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy plus cetuximab were included in the present analysis. Patients were eligible for the study if they met the following criteria: advanced pathologically proven MCRC, age >18 years, adequate renal function (creatinine clearance >40 ml/min), C-reactive protein and albumin and performance status evaluation before treatment initiation. A total of 49 patients received cetuximab plus 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy (colon, n = 34; rectum, n = 15) and were treated with a median follow-up of 35 months (16.5-74.7). Median age was 48 years old. In addition to cetuximab, patients received oxaliplatin- (n = 34, 60%) or irinotecan (n = 15, 30%)-based chemotherapy. At time of diagnosis, 55, 29 and 16% of patients had a GPS of 0 (n = 27), 1 (n = 14) and 2 (n = 8), respectively. Fifty-five, 29 and 14 % of patients add one, two or ≥3 metastatic sites, respectively. Considering two groups (GPS = 0 and GPS ≥1), median progression-free survivals were significantly different (p = 0.0084). Median OS in the GPS 0, 1 and 2 groups were 38.2, 14 and 12.1 months, respectively (p = 0.0093). The results of the present study confirm that the GPS is still a simple and effective prognostic factor in the era of cetuximab therapy in mCRC patients.

  18. CLIF-SOFA score and SIRS are independent prognostic factors in patients with hepatic encephalopathy due to alcoholic liver cirrhosis.

    PubMed

    Jeong, Jin Hee; Park, In Sung; Kim, Dong Hoon; Kim, Seong Chun; Kang, Changwoo; Lee, Soo Hoon; Kim, Tae Yun; Lee, Sang Bong

    2016-06-01

    Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a complication associated with worst prognosis in decompensated liver cirrhosis (LC) patients. Previous studies have identified prognostic factors for HE, and recent studies reported an association between systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and liver disease. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors for 30-day mortality in alcoholic LC patients with HE who visited the emergency department (ED).This was a retrospective study of alcoholic LC patients with HE from January 1, 2010, to April 30, 2015. The baseline characteristics, complications of portal hypertension, laboratory values, Child-Pugh class, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score, and SIRS criteria were assessed. The presence of 2 or more SIRS criteria was considered SIRS. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and prognostic factors for patients with HE visiting the ED.In total, 105 patients who met the inclusion criteria were analyzed. Overall, the 30-day mortality rate was 6.7% (7 patients).Significant variables were hepatorenal syndrome, international normalized ratio, white blood cell count, total bilirubin level, MELD score CLIF-SOFA score, and SIRS in univariate analysis. CLIF-SOFA score and SIRS were the significant factors in the multivariate analysis (hazard ratio 5.56, 15.98; 95% confidence interval 1.18-26.18, 1.58-161.37; P = 0.03, P = 0.02). The mortality rates differed according to the CLIF-SOFA score (P < 0.01).The CLIF-SOFA score and SIRS in alcoholic LC patients with HE visiting the ED are independent predictors of 30-day mortality.

  19. A Simplified Mortality Score Using Delta Neutrophil Index and the Thrombotic Microangiopathy Score for Prognostication in Critically Ill Patients.

    PubMed

    Goag, Eun Kyong; Lee, Jong Wook; Roh, Yun Ho; Leem, Ah Young; Kim, Song Yee; Song, Joo Han; Kim, Eun Young; Jung, Ji Ye; Park, Moo Suk; Kim, Young Sam; Kim, Se Kyu; Chang, Joon; Chung, Kyung Soo

    2017-07-04

    This study was conducted to assess the prognostic value of a simplified mortality score (SMS) using the delta neutrophil index (DNI) and thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA) score, both easily obtained from the complete blood count, to identify critically ill patients at high risk of death. This was a retrospective study performed in the medical ICU at Yonsei University College of Medicine from June 2015 to February 2016. The primary end-point was 28-day all-cause mortality. Participants were divided into two groups: a training (n = 232) and a test (n = 57) set. We used Cox proportional-hazards analysis, Harrell's C index, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to derive the SMS and test its internal validity. We enrolled 289 patients. The 28-day mortality rate was 31.1% (n = 90). Non-survivors had higher APACHE II, SOFA, and TMA scores, and DNI. The SMS, derived by Cox proportional-hazards analysis, consisted of age, sex, DNI, and TMA score. We assigned a weighted point to each variable in the SMS, as follows: age + 11 if male + (2 × DNI) + (61 [TMA = 1], 76 [TMA = 2], 74 [TMA = 3], 26 [TMA = 4], 99 [TMA = 5]). Non-survivors had a higher median SMS than survivors, and the Harrell's C index was 0.660. Analysis of survival by risk group according to SMS (low, intermediate, high risk) showed a significant difference among these three groups (P < 0.001). We then investigated this SMS in the test set to determine internal validity; the results were similar to those of the training set. The SMS is a more rapid, simple prognostic score for predicting 28-day mortality and stratifying risk than the APACHE II or SOFA scores. However, external validation using a larger sample is needed.

  20. Change in the Multidimensional Prognostic Index Score During Hospitalization in Older Patients

    PubMed Central

    Daragjati, Julia; Simonato, Matteo; Fontana, Andrea; Ferrucci, Luigi; Pilotto, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We investigated and describe change in the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) score between admission and discharge in 960 older patients admitted to 20 geriatric units for an acute disease or a relapse of a chronic disease. The MPI was calculated at admission and at discharge. Subjects were divided into three groups of MPI score, low risk (MPI-1 value ≤0.33), moderate risk (MPI-2 value 0.34–0.66), and severe risk of mortality (MPI-3 value ≥0.67), on the basis of previously established cutoffs. Variation of MPI values over length of hospital stay (LOS) was analyzed with a multivariable longitudinal linear model for repeated measurements. At admission, 23.5% subjects had an MPI-1 score, 33.3% had an MPI-2 score, and 43.0% had an MPI-3 score. Overall, for almost 60% of the patients, MPI score at hospital discharge was different compared with the score at admission, although the difference was not statistically significant (−0.003; p = 0.708). Patients with high and intermediate MPI scores at admission had a decrease of MPI score at discharge (delta-MPI −0.026, p < 0.001, and delta-MPI −0.066, p = 0.569, respectively), whereas patients in the MPI-low group, experienced a significant increase in MPI score (delta-MPI 0.041, p < 0.001). The evolution of MPI score as a function of LOS had a curvilinear shape because it significantly decreased for patients with short hospitalization (1–6 days) and tended to increase for those with longer LOS. The MPI, a well-established prognostic tool, is sensitive to change of patient's health status and might be used to objectively track and monitor the clinical evolution of acutely ill geriatric patients admitted to the hospital. PMID:26905632

  1. Change in the Multidimensional Prognostic Index Score During Hospitalization in Older Patients.

    PubMed

    Volpato, Stefano; Daragjati, Julia; Simonato, Matteo; Fontana, Andrea; Ferrucci, Luigi; Pilotto, Alberto

    2016-06-01

    We investigated and describe change in the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) score between admission and discharge in 960 older patients admitted to 20 geriatric units for an acute disease or a relapse of a chronic disease. The MPI was calculated at admission and at discharge. Subjects were divided into three groups of MPI score, low risk (MPI-1 value ≤0.33), moderate risk (MPI-2 value 0.34-0.66), and severe risk of mortality (MPI-3 value ≥0.67), on the basis of previously established cutoffs. Variation of MPI values over length of hospital stay (LOS) was analyzed with a multivariable longitudinal linear model for repeated measurements. At admission, 23.5% subjects had an MPI-1 score, 33.3% had an MPI-2 score, and 43.0% had an MPI-3 score. Overall, for almost 60% of the patients, MPI score at hospital discharge was different compared with the score at admission, although the difference was not statistically significant (-0.003; p = 0.708). Patients with high and intermediate MPI scores at admission had a decrease of MPI score at discharge (delta-MPI -0.026, p < 0.001, and delta-MPI -0.066, p = 0.569, respectively), whereas patients in the MPI-low group, experienced a significant increase in MPI score (delta-MPI 0.041, p < 0.001). The evolution of MPI score as a function of LOS had a curvilinear shape because it significantly decreased for patients with short hospitalization (1-6 days) and tended to increase for those with longer LOS. The MPI, a well-established prognostic tool, is sensitive to change of patient's health status and might be used to objectively track and monitor the clinical evolution of acutely ill geriatric patients admitted to the hospital.

  2. Prognostication of long-term outcomes after subarachnoid hemorrhage: The FRESH score.

    PubMed

    Witsch, Jens; Frey, Hans-Peter; Patel, Sweta; Park, Soojin; Lahiri, Shouri; Schmidt, J Michael; Agarwal, Sachin; Falo, Maria Cristina; Velazquez, Angela; Jaja, Blessing; Macdonald, R Loch; Connolly, E Sander; Claassen, Jan

    2016-07-01

    To create a multidimensional tool to prognosticate long-term functional, cognitive, and quality of life outcomes after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) using data up to 48 hours after admission. Data were prospectively collected for 1,619 consecutive patients enrolled in the SAH outcome project July 1996 to March 2014. Linear models (LMs) were applied to identify factors associated with outcome in 1,526 patients with complete data. Twelve-month functional, cognitive, and quality of life outcomes were measured using the modified Rankin scale (mRS), Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status, and Sickness Impact Profile. Based on the LM residuals, we constructed the FRESH score (Functional Recovery Expected after Subarachnoid Hemorrhage). Score performance, discrimination, and internal validity were tested using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Nagelkerke and Cox/Snell R(2) , and bootstrapping. For external validation, we used a control population of SAH patients from the CONSCIOUS-1 study (n = 413). The FRESH score was composed of Hunt & Hess and APACHE-II physiologic scores on admission, age, and aneurysmal rebleed within 48 hours. Separate scores to prognosticate 1-year cognition (FRESH-cog) and quality of life (FRESH-quol) were developed controlling for education and premorbid disability. Poor functional outcome (mRS = 4-6) for score levels 1 through 9 respectively was present in 3, 6, 12, 38, 61, 83, 92, 98, and 100% at 1-year follow-up. Performance of FRESH (AUC = 0.90), FRESH-cog (AUC = 0.80), and FRESH-quol (AUC = 0.78) was high. External validation of our cohort using mRS as endpoint showed satisfactory results (AUC = 0.77). To allow for convenient score calculation, we built a smartphone app available for free download. FRESH is the first clinical tool to prognosticate long-term outcome after spontaneous SAH in a multidimensional manner. Ann Neurol 2016;80:46-58. © 2016 American Neurological Association.

  3. Prognostic impact of absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio and prognostic score in patients with nasal-type, extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Li, Na; Zhang, Li; Song, Hao-Lan; Zhang, Jing; Weng, Hua-Wei; Zou, Li-Qun

    2017-05-01

    Nasal-type, extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma is a heterogeneous disorder with poor prognosis, requiring risk stratification in this population. The combined value of baseline absolute lymphocyte count and absolute monocyte count provided prognostic information in some malignancies. However, the evidence requires validation in extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma. Aiming to investigate the prognostic significance of absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio and absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count prognostic score for extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, a retrospective research was carried out. A total of 264 patients with newly diagnosed extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma were analyzed in this study. The patients' absolute lymphocyte count and absolute monocyte count tested at initial diagnosis were collected. Receiver operating curve analysis showed that the optimal cut-off values for absolute lymphocyte count and absolute monocyte count were 1.0 × 10(9) and 0.5 × 10(9)L(-1), respectively, and for absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio was 2.85. After a median follow-up of 27 months (range 1-87 months), the 3-year overall survival and progression-free survival was 75.4% and 67.6%, respectively. Patients with absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio ≥ 2.85 had better 3-year overall survival and progression-free survival than those with absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count ratio <2.85 (p < 0.001). According to absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count prognostic score, significant difference has been noticed in 3-year overall survival and progression-free survival (p < 0.001) and high absolute lymphocyte count/absolute monocyte count prognostic score was associated with poorer survival. The International Prognostic Index and Korean Prognostic Index were used for prognosis and showed no significant difference. When adding absolute lymphocyte count

  4. Validation of prognostic scoring and assessment of clinical benefit for patients with bone sarcomas enrolled in phase I clinical trials

    PubMed Central

    Livingston, J. Andrew; Hess, Kenneth R.; Naing, Aung; Hong, David S.; Patel, Shreyaskumar; Benjamin, Robert S.; Ludwig, Joseph A.; Conley, Anthony; Herzog, Cynthia E.; Anderson, Pete; Meric-Bernstam, Funda; Kurzrock, Razelle; Subbiah, Vivek

    2016-01-01

    Background We sought to validate the Royal Marsden Hospital (RMH) and MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) prognostic scoring systems for the selection of bone sarcoma patients for phase I clinical trials and to identify additional risk factors related to survival. Patients and Methods We retrospectively reviewed the baseline characteristics and outcomes of 92 bone sarcoma patients who were referred to MDACC's Phase I Clinical Trials Program. Results Ninety-two patients with Ewing sarcoma (N = 47), osteosarcoma (N = 22), chondrosarcoma (N = 16), and other tumors (N = 7) were evaluated; 78 were enrolled in at least 1 of 43 different phase I trials. The median overall survival (OS) was 8.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.8–13.7 months). Independent factors that predicted shorter survival were male sex, >2 metastatic sites, >3 previous therapies, hemoglobin level <10.5 g/dL, platelet count >200 x103/L, creatinine level ≥1.3 mg/dL, and lactate dehydrogenase level >ULN. Patients with good RMH scores (0-1) had longer OS than patients with poor RMH scores (2-3) (HR = 5.8, 95% CI = 2.9–11.0; P < 0.0001), as did patients with low MDACC scores (0-1) as compared to patients with higher MDACC scores (2–4) (HR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.9–5.6; P < 0.0001). Conclusion The RMH prognostic score can be used to predict the OS of bone cancer patients referred for phase I trials. The MDACC score added no value to the RMH score and therefore does not have a role in assessment of patients with bone tumors. Patients with advanced bone sarcomas should be considered for phase I trials. PMID:27486883

  5. Development and validation of a prognostic score to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

    PubMed

    Jalan, Rajiv; Saliba, Faouzi; Pavesi, Marco; Amoros, Alex; Moreau, Richard; Ginès, Pere; Levesque, Eric; Durand, Francois; Angeli, Paolo; Caraceni, Paolo; Hopf, Corinna; Alessandria, Carlo; Rodriguez, Ezequiel; Solis-Muñoz, Pablo; Laleman, Wim; Trebicka, Jonel; Zeuzem, Stefan; Gustot, Thierry; Mookerjee, Rajeshwar; Elkrief, Laure; Soriano, German; Cordoba, Joan; Morando, Filippo; Gerbes, Alexander; Agarwal, Banwari; Samuel, Didier; Bernardi, Mauro; Arroyo, Vicente

    2014-11-01

    Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a frequent syndrome (30% prevalence), characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality. This study develops and validates a specific prognostic score for ACLF patients. Data from 1349 patients included in the CANONIC study were used. First, a simplified organ function scoring system (CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score, CLIF-C OFs) was developed to diagnose ACLF using data from all patients. Subsequently, in 275 patients with ACLF, CLIF-C OFs and two other independent predictors of mortality (age and white blood cell count) were combined to develop a specific prognostic score for ACLF (CLIF Consortium ACLF score [CLIF-C ACLFs]). A concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of CLIF-C ACLF, MELD, MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and Child-Pugh (CPs) scores. The CLIF-C ACLFs was validated in an external cohort and assessed for sequential use. The CLIF-C ACLFs showed a significantly higher predictive accuracy than MELDs, MELD-Nas, and CPs, reducing (19-28%) the corresponding prediction error rates at all main time points after ACLF diagnosis (28, 90, 180, and 365 days) in both the CANONIC and the external validation cohort. CLIF-C ACLFs computed at 48 h, 3-7 days, and 8-15 days after ACLF diagnosis predicted the 28-day mortality significantly better than at diagnosis. The CLIF-C ACLFs at ACLF diagnosis is superior to the MELDs and MELD-Nas in predicting mortality. The CLIF-C ACLFs is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the risk of mortality in ACLF patients. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Nailfold capillaroscopy for day-to-day clinical use: construction of a simple scoring modality as a clinical prognostic index for digital trophic lesions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Vanessa; De Keyser, Filip; Pizzorni, Carmen; Van Praet, Jens T; Decuman, Saskia; Sulli, Alberto; Deschepper, Ellen; Cutolo, Maurizio

    2011-01-01

    Construction of a simple nailfold videocapillaroscopic (NVC) scoring modality as a prognostic index for digital trophic lesions for day-to-day clinical use. An association with a single simple (semi)-quantitatively scored NVC parameter, mean score of capillary loss, was explored in 71 consecutive patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc), and reliable reduction in the number of investigated fields (F32-F16-F8-F4). The cut-off value of the prognostic index (mean score of capillary loss calculated over a reduced number of fields) for present/future digital trophic lesions was selected by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis. Reduction in the number of fields for mean score of capillary loss was reliable from F32 to F8 (intraclass correlation coefficient of F16/F32: 0.97; F8/F32: 0.90). Based on ROC analysis, a prognostic index (mean score of capillary loss as calculated over F8) with a cut-off value of 1.67 is proposed. This value has a sensitivity of 72.22/70.00, specificity of 70.59/69.77, positive likelihood ratio of 2.46/2.32 and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.39/0.43 for present/future digital trophic lesions. A simple prognostic index for digital trophic lesions for daily use in SSc clinics is proposed, limited to the mean score of capillary loss as calculated over eight fields (8 fingers, 1 field per finger).

  7. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harp, Janicce Leshay

    2014-01-01

    The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component, system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the "end of life." The capability also provides an assessment of the "remaining useful life" of a hardware component.

  8. Prognostic Factors for Open Globe Injuries and Correlation of Ocular Trauma Score in Tianjin, China

    PubMed Central

    Meng, Yu; Yan, Hua

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. To investigate prognostic factors that influence the final visual acuity (VA) and to correlate the ocular trauma score (OTS) with the final VA in open globe injuries. Methods. A retrospective review of 298 patients with open globe injuries admitted to Tianjin Medical University General Hospital was carried out from January 1, 2010, till December 31, 2014. Prognostic factors influencing the final VA in patients with open globe injuries and the correlation between OTS and the final VA were examined. Results. Three hundred and fourteen eyes from 298 patients with open globe injuries were analyzed. Males had a higher rate of open globe injury than females (83.56% versus 16.44%). Mean age was 45.46 ± 17.48 years (5–95 years). In a univariate analysis, prognostic factors influencing the final VA included initial VA, relative afferent papillary defect (RAPD), vitreous hemorrhage, lens injury, endophthalmitis, hyphema, retinal detachment, and the zone of injury. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, initial VA, RAPD, and the zone of injury were considered to be independent risk factors. The OTS correlated with final VA (r = 0.988, p = 0.000). Conclusion. In our study, the most important prognostic factors influencing the final VA were initial VA, RAPD, and the zone of injury. The OTS was of great importance for patients and ophthalmologists. PMID:26491549

  9. Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goebel, Kai; Vachtsevanos, George; Orchard, Marcos E.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge discovery, statistical learning, and more specifically an understanding of the system evolution in time when it undergoes undesirable fault conditions, are critical for an adequate implementation of successful prognostic systems. Prognosis may be understood as the generation of long-term predictions describing the evolution in time of a particular signal of interest or fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem. Predictions are made using a thorough understanding of the underlying processes and factor in the anticipated future usage.

  10. Prognostics for Electronics Components of Avionics Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.

    2009-01-01

    Electronics components have and increasingly critical role in avionics systems and for the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research filed as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management. This paper reports on a prognostics application for electronics components of avionics systems, in particular, its application to the Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). The remaining useful life prediction for the IGBT is based on the particle filter framework, leveraging data from an accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. The accelerated aging test provided thermal-electrical overstress by applying thermal cycling to the device. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of the steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

  11. Prognostic variables and scores identifying the last year of life in COPD: a systematic review protocol

    PubMed Central

    Ali, Ifrah; Stone, Patrick; Smeeth, Liam

    2016-01-01

    Introduction People living with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) suffer from significant morbidity, reduced quality of life and high mortality, and are likely to benefit from many aspects of a palliative care approach. Prognostic estimates are a meaningful part of decision-making and better evidence for such estimates would facilitate advance care planning. We aim to provide quality evidence on known prognostic variables and scores which predict a prognosis in COPD of <12 months for use in the community. Methods and analysis We will conduct a systematic review of randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials, prospective and retrospective longitudinal cohort and case–control studies on prognostic variables, multivariate scores or models for COPD. The search will cover the period up to April 2016. Study selection will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, with data extraction using fields from the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist for multivariate models, and study quality will be assessed using a modified version of the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. Ethics and dissemination The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and national and international conference presentations. Systematic review registration number CRD42016033866. PMID:27633634

  12. Impact of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System, cytogenetics and monosomal karyotype on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation for myelodysplastic syndromes and secondary acute myeloid leukemia evolving from myelodysplastic syndromes: a retrospective multicenter study of the European Society of Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Koenecke, Christian; Göhring, Gudrun; de Wreede, Liesbeth C; van Biezen, Anja; Scheid, Christof; Volin, Liisa; Maertens, Johan; Finke, Jürgen; Schaap, Nicolaas; Robin, Marie; Passweg, Jakob; Cornelissen, Jan; Beelen, Dietrich; Heuser, Michael; de Witte, Theo; Kröger, Nicolaus

    2015-03-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the revised 5-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes or secondary acute myeloid leukemia who were reported to the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation database. A total of 903 patients had sufficient cytogenetic information available at stem cell transplantation to be classified according to the 5-group classification. Poor and very poor risk according to this classification was an independent predictor of shorter relapse-free survival (hazard ratio 1.40 and 2.14), overall survival (hazard ratio 1.38 and 2.14), and significantly higher cumulative incidence of relapse (hazard ratio 1.64 and 2.76), compared to patients with very good, good or intermediate risk. When comparing the predictive performance of a series of Cox models both for relapse-free survival and for overall survival, a model with simplified 5-group cytogenetics (merging very good, good and intermediate cytogenetics) performed best. Furthermore, monosomal karyotype is an additional negative predictor for outcome within patients of the poor, but not the very poor risk group of the 5-group classification. The revised International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification allows patients with myelodysplastic syndromes to be separated into three groups with clearly different outcomes after stem cell transplantation. Poor and very poor risk cytogenetics were strong predictors of poor patient outcome. The new cytogenetic classification added value to prediction of patient outcome compared to prediction models using only traditional risk factors or the 3-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

  13. Prognostics Methodology for Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gulati, Sandeep; Mackey, Ryan

    2003-01-01

    An automatic method to schedule maintenance and repair of complex systems is produced based on a computational structure called the Informed Maintenance Grid (IMG). This method provides solutions to the two fundamental problems in autonomic logistics: (1) unambiguous detection of deterioration or impending loss of function and (2) determination of the time remaining to perform maintenance or other corrective action based upon information from the system. The IMG provides a health determination over the medium-to-longterm operation of the system, from one or more days to years of study. The IMG is especially applicable to spacecraft and both piloted and autonomous aircraft, or industrial control processes.

  14. Prognostic value of a cell cycle progression score for men with prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Cuzick, Jack

    2014-01-01

    A new prognostic score called the cell cycle progression or CCP score has been evaluated for predicting outcome in men with prostate cancer. The score is based on 31 cell cycle progression genes and 15 housekeeper control genes. Results on 5 cohorts have been reported. In all cases the CCP score was strongly predictive of outcome both in univariate models and in multvariate models incorporating standard factors such as Gleason grade, PSA levels and extent of disease. Two cohorts evaluated patients managed by active surveillance where the outcome was death from prostate cancer, two cohorts examined patients treated by radical prostatectomy where biochemical recurrence was the primary endpoint, and one smaller cohort looked at patients treated with radiotherapy where again biochemical recurrence was used as the endpoint. In all cases a unit change in CCP score was associated with an approximate doubling of risk of an event. These data provide strong event to support use of the CCP score to help guide clinical management.

  15. Brain Metastases From Breast Carcinoma: Validation of the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Recursive Partitioning Analysis Classification and Proposition of a New Prognostic Score

    SciTech Connect

    Le Scodan, Romuald Massard, Christophe; Mouret-Fourme, Emmanuelle; Guinebretierre, Jean Marc; Cohen-Solal, Christine; De Lalande, Brigitte; Moisson, Patricia; Breton-Callu, Christelle; Gardner, Miriam; Goupil, Alain; Renody, Nicole; Floiras, Jean Louis; Labib, Alain

    2007-11-01

    Purpose: To validate the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Recursive Partitioning Analysis (RTOG RPA) classification and determine independent prognostic factors, to create a simple and specific prognostic score for patients with brain metastases (BM) from breast carcinoma treated with whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT). Methods and Materials: From January 1998 through December 2003, 132 patients with BM from breast carcinoma were treated with WBRT. We analyzed several potential predictors of survival after WBRT: age, Karnofsky performance status, RTOG-RPA class, number of BM, presence and site of other systemic metastases, interval between primary tumor and BM, tumor hormone receptor (HR) status, lymphocyte count, and HER-2 overexpression. Results: A total of 117 patients received exclusive WBRT and were analyzed. Median survival with BM was 5 months. One-year and 2-year survival rates were 27.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 19.9-36.8%) and 12% (95% CI 6.5-21.2%), respectively. In multivariate analysis, RTOG RPA Class III, lymphopenia ({<=}0.7 x 10{sup 9}/L) and HR negative status were independent prognostic factors for poor survival. We constructed a three-factor prognostic scoring system that predicts 6-month and 1-year rates of overall survival in the range of 76.1-29.5% (p = 0.00033) and 60.9-15.9% (p = 0.0011), respectively, with median survival of 15 months, 5 months, or 3 months for patients with none, one, or more than one adverse prognostic factor(s), respectively. Conclusions: This study confirms the prognostic value of the RTOG RPA classification, lymphopenia, and tumor HR status, which can be used to form a prognostic score for patients with BM from breast carcinoma.

  16. Bicarbonate can improve the prognostic value of the MELD score for critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

    PubMed

    Chen, Cheng-Yi; Pan, Chi-Feng; Wu, Chih-Jen; Chen, Han-Hsiang; Chen, Yu-Wei

    2014-07-01

    The prognosis of critically ill patients with cirrhosis is poor. Our aim was to identify an objective variable that can improve the prognostic value of the Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in patients who have cirrhosis and are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). This retrospective cohort study included 177 patients who had liver cirrhosis and were admitted to the ICU. Data pertaining to arterial blood gas-related parameters and other variables were obtained on the day of ICU admission. The overall ICU mortality rate was 36.2%. The bicarbonate (HCO3) level was found to be an independent predictor of ICU mortality (odds ratio, 2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-4.8; p = 0.038). A new equation was constructed (MELD-Bicarbonate) by replacing total bilirubin by HCO3 in the original MELD score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting ICU mortality was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.84) for the MELD-Bicarbonate equation, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65-0.81) for the MELD score, and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63-0.80) for the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score. Bicarbonate level assessment, as an objective and reproducible laboratory test, has significant predictive value in critically ill patients with cirrhosis. In contrast, the predictive value of total bilirubin is not as prominent in this setting. The MELD-Bicarbonate equation, which included three variables (international normalized ratio, creatinine level, and HCO3 level), showed better prognostic value than the original MELD score in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

  17. Validation of a prognostic score for early mortality in severe head injury cases.

    PubMed

    Gómez, Pedro A; de-la-Cruz, Javier; Lora, David; Jiménez-Roldán, Luis; Rodríguez-Boto, Gregorio; Sarabia, Rosario; Sahuquillo, Juan; Lastra, Roberto; Morera, Jesus; Lazo, Eglis; Dominguez, Jaime; Ibañez, Javier; Brell, Marta; de-la-Lama, Adolfo; Lobato, Ramiro D; Lagares, Alfonso

    2014-12-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) represents a large health and economic burden. Because of the inability of previous randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on TBI to demonstrate the expected benefit of reducing unfavorable outcomes, the IMPACT (International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI) and CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomisation After Significant Head Injury) studies provided new methods for performing prognostic studies of TBI. This study aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic model for early death (within 48 hours). The secondary aim was to identify patients who were more likely to succumb to an early death to limit their inclusion in RCTs and to improve the efficiency of RCTs. The derivation cohort was recruited at 1 center, Hospital 12 de Octubre, Madrid (1990-2003, 925 patients). The validation cohort was recruited in 2004-2006 from 7 study centers (374 patients). The eligible patients had suffered closed severe TBIs. The study outcome was early death (within 48 hours post-TBI). The predictors were selected using logistic regression modeling with bootstrapping techniques, and a penalized reduction was used. A risk score was developed based on the regression coefficients of the variables included in the final model. In the validation set, the final model showed a predictive ability of 50% (Nagelkerke R(2)), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 89% and an acceptable calibration (goodness-of-fit test, p = 0.32). The final model included 7 variables, and it was used to develop a risk score with a range from 0 to 20 points. Age provided 0, 1, 2, or 3 points depending on the age group; motor score provided 0 points, 2 (untestable), or 3 (no response); pupillary reactivity, 0, 2 (1 pupil reacted), or 6 (no pupil reacted); shock, 0 (no) or 2 (yes); subarachnoid hemorrhage, 0 or 1 (severe deposit); cisternal status, 0 or 3 (compressed/absent); and epidural hematoma, 0 (yes) or 2 (no). Based on the risk

  18. A Prognostic Scoring Tool for Cesarean Organ/Space Surgical Site Infections: Derivation and Internal Validation.

    PubMed

    Assawapalanggool, Srisuda; Kasatpibal, Nongyao; Sirichotiyakul, Supatra; Arora, Rajin; Suntornlimsiri, Watcharin

    Organ/space surgical site infections (SSIs) are serious complications after cesarean delivery. However, no scoring tool to predict these complications has yet been developed. This study sought to develop and validate a prognostic scoring tool for cesarean organ/space SSIs. Data for case and non-case of cesarean organ/space SSI between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2012 from a tertiary care hospital in Thailand were analyzed. Stepwise multivariable logistic regression was used to select the best predictor combination and their coefficients were transformed to a risk scoring tool. The likelihood ratio of positive for each risk category and the area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were analyzed on total scores. Internal validation using bootstrap re-sampling was tested for reproducibility. The predictors of 243 organ/space SSIs from 4,988 eligible cesarean delivery cases comprised the presence of foul-smelling amniotic fluid (four points), vaginal examination five or more times before incision (two points), wound class III or greater (two points), being referred from local setting (two points), hemoglobin less than 11 g/dL (one point), and ethnic minorities (one point). The likelihood ratio of cesarean organ/space SSIs with 95% confidence interval among low (total score of 0-1 point), medium (total score of 2-5 points), and high risk (total score of ≥6 points) categories were 0.11 (0.07-0.19), 1.03 (0.89-1.18), and 13.25 (10.87-16.14), respectively. Both AUROCs of the derivation and validation data were comparable (87.57% versus 86.08%; p = 0.418). This scoring tool showed a high predictive ability regarding cesarean organ/space SSIs on the derivation data and reproducibility was demonstrated on internal validation. It could assist practitioners prioritize patient care and management depending on risk category and decrease SSI rates in cesarean deliveries.

  19. Prognostic Value of Ocular Trauma Scores in Patients With Combined Open Globe Injuries and Facial Fractures.

    PubMed

    Gervasio, Kalla A; Weinstock, Brett M; Wu, Albert Y

    2015-11-01

    To assess the prognostic value of the Ocular Trauma Score in patients with combined open globe injuries and facial fractures. Retrospective cohort study. A comprehensive chart review was conducted on 25 patients (28 eyes) identified from the Elmhurst City Hospital Trauma Registry between January 1, 2000 and June 30, 2012. Elmhurst City Hospital is a level 1 trauma center located in Elmhurst, New York, USA. Average age was 52 (range 18-88) and patients were predominantly male (84%). The majority of patients had an Ocular Trauma Score of 1 (87.5%), and of these patients, 76% and 14% had final visual acuities of no light perception (NLP) and light perception/hand motion (LP/HM), respectively. These corresponded to 74% and 15% predicted by the original Ocular Trauma Score guidelines (100% sensitive and 100% specific). Ocular Trauma Score of 1 was associated with zone 3 eye wound location (P = .02). Independent of Ocular Trauma Score, initial visual acuity and frontal bone fractures were predictive of NLP (P = .006 and P = .047). Nonblindness was associated with nasal bone fractures (P = .047). This study validates the use of the Ocular Trauma Score in patients with combined facial fracture and open globe injury. The presence of facial fractures does not appear to influence visual prognosis for open globe injuries with an Ocular Trauma Score of 1. In the absence of data to calculate a full Ocular Trauma Score, initial visual acuity was the strongest predictor of final visual outcome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Prognostic Value of Risk Score and Urinary Markers in Idiopathic Membranous Nephropathy

    PubMed Central

    Hofstra, Julia M.; Wetzels, Jack F.M.

    2012-01-01

    Summary Background and objectives Accurate prediction of prognosis may improve management of patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy. This study compared the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins. Design, setting, participants, & measurements One hundred four patients with biopsy-proven idiopathic membranous nephropathy who presented between 1995 and 2008 with a well-preserved kidney function and nephrotic range proteinuria were included. Urinary β2-microglobulin and α1-microglobulin measurements were obtained by timed standardized measurements, and the Toronto Risk Score was calculated using data obtained from medical records. The endpoint was progression, which was defined as an increase in serum creatinine>50% or >25% with a concentration>135 μmol/L. Results Forty-nine patients showed progression. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval=0.69–0.88) for the risk score versus 0.80 (0.71–0.89) and 0.79 (0.71–0.88) for urinary β2- and α1-microglobulin, respectively. Differences were not significant. Persistent proteinuria did not add accuracy to the Toronto Risk Score. Conversely, its accuracy was not reduced when data from the first 6 months of follow-up were used. Furthermore, a score based on GFR estimated with the six-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, calculated in the first 6 months of follow-up, gave an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (0.74–0.92), which was not statistically different from other markers. Conclusions The prognostic accuracies of the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins were not significantly different. The risk score can be calculated within 6 months of diagnosis, and a simplified risk score using estimated GFR–Modification of Diet in Renal Disease may be sufficient. PMID:22595828

  1. Prognostic value of risk score and urinary markers in idiopathic membranous nephropathy.

    PubMed

    van den Brand, Jan A J G; Hofstra, Julia M; Wetzels, Jack F M

    2012-08-01

    Accurate prediction of prognosis may improve management of patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy. This study compared the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins. One hundred four patients with biopsy-proven idiopathic membranous nephropathy who presented between 1995 and 2008 with a well-preserved kidney function and nephrotic range proteinuria were included. Urinary β2-microglobulin and α1-microglobulin measurements were obtained by timed standardized measurements, and the Toronto Risk Score was calculated using data obtained from medical records. The endpoint was progression, which was defined as an increase in serum creatinine > 50% or > 25% with a concentration > 135 μmol/L. Forty-nine patients showed progression. The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval = 0.69-0.88) for the risk score versus 0.80 (0.71-0.89) and 0.79 (0.71-0.88) for urinary β2- and α1-microglobulin, respectively. Differences were not significant. Persistent proteinuria did not add accuracy to the Toronto Risk Score. Conversely, its accuracy was not reduced when data from the first 6 months of follow-up were used. Furthermore, a score based on GFR estimated with the six-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation, calculated in the first 6 months of follow-up, gave an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (0.74-0.92), which was not statistically different from other markers. The prognostic accuracies of the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins were not significantly different. The risk score can be calculated within 6 months of diagnosis, and a simplified risk score using estimated GFR-Modification of Diet in Renal Disease may be sufficient.

  2. Validation of a prognostic score for mortality in elderly patients admitted to Intensive Care Unit

    PubMed Central

    Sánchez-Hurtado, Luis Alejandro; Ángeles-Veléz, Adrian; Tejeda-Huezo, Brigette Carmen; García-Cruz, Juan Carlos; Juárez-Cedillo, Teresa

    2016-01-01

    Context: The performance of a prognostic score must be evaluated prior to being used. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive ability of hospital mortality of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) score in elderly patients admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Aims: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the SAPS 3 score predictive ability of hospital mortality in elderly patients admitted to ICU. Settings and Design: This study was conducted as a prospective cohort, in two mixed ICUs. Patients and Methods: Two hundred and eleven elderly patients were included. Interventions: None. We compared the predictive accuracy of SAPS 3 measured at the first hour at ICU and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) measured with the worst values in the first 24 h at ICU. The patients were followed until hospital discharge. Statistical Analysis Used: Evaluation of discrimination through area under curve receiver operating characteristic (aROC) and calibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test. Results: The median age was 68 years. The hospital mortality rate was 35.54%. The mean value of SAPS 3 was 62.54 ± 12.51 and APACHE II was 17.46 ± 6.77. The mortality predicted by APACHE II was 24.98 ± 19.96 and for standard SAPS 3 equation 41.18 ± 22.34. The discrimination for SAPS 3 model was aROC = 0.68 (0.62–0.75) and to APACHE II aROC = 0.70 (0.63–0.78). Calibration: APACHE II with HL 10.127 P = 0.26, and standard SAPS 3 equation HL 7.204 P = 0.51. Conclusions: In this study, the prognostic model of SAPS 3 was not found to be accurate in predicting mortality in geriatric patients requiring ICU admission. PMID:28149026

  3. Angle Closure Scoring System (ACSS)-A Scoring System for Stratification of Angle Closure Disease

    PubMed Central

    Rao, Aparna; Padhy, Debananda; Sarangi, Sarada; Das, Gopinath

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the angle closure scoring system (ACSS) for stratifying primary angle course disease. Methods This observational cross sectional institutional study included patients with primary open angle glaucoma suspects (n = 21) and primary angle closure disease (primary angle closure, PAC, n = 63 and primary angle course glaucoma, PACG, n = 58 (defined by International society of Geographical and Epidemiological Ophthalmology, ISGEO). Two independent examiners blinded to clinical details, graded good quality pre-laser goniophotographs of the patients incorporating quadrants of peripheral anterior synechieae (PAS), non-visibility of posterior trabecular meshwork (PTM) and blotchy pigments (ranging from 1–4 quadrants), iris configuration, angle recess (sum of above depicting ACSSg) and lens thickness/axial length ratio (LT/AL), cup disc ratio and baseline intraocular pressure (IOP) to give total score (ACSSt). Result There were significant differences in ACSSg scores within the same ISGEO stage of PAC and PACG between eyes that required nil or >1medicines after laser iridotomy, p<0.001. The ACSSg was associated with need for >1 medicines in both PAC and PACG eyes, p<0.001. An ACSSg score>12 and 14 in PAC (odds ratio = 2.7(95% CI-1.7–5.9) and PACG (Odds ratio = 1.6(95%CI-1.19–2.2) predicted need for single medicines while ACSSg scores >14 and 19 predicted need for ≥2 medicines in PAC and PACG eyes, respectively. The LT/Al ratio, IOP score or cup disc score did not influence the need for medical treatment independently. Conclusion The ACSS can be a useful clinical adjunct to the ISGEO system to predict need for medicines and prognosticate each stage more accurately. PMID:27788183

  4. Angle Closure Scoring System (ACSS)-A Scoring System for Stratification of Angle Closure Disease.

    PubMed

    Rao, Aparna; Padhy, Debananda; Sarangi, Sarada; Das, Gopinath

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate the angle closure scoring system (ACSS) for stratifying primary angle course disease. This observational cross sectional institutional study included patients with primary open angle glaucoma suspects (n = 21) and primary angle closure disease (primary angle closure, PAC, n = 63 and primary angle course glaucoma, PACG, n = 58 (defined by International society of Geographical and Epidemiological Ophthalmology, ISGEO). Two independent examiners blinded to clinical details, graded good quality pre-laser goniophotographs of the patients incorporating quadrants of peripheral anterior synechieae (PAS), non-visibility of posterior trabecular meshwork (PTM) and blotchy pigments (ranging from 1-4 quadrants), iris configuration, angle recess (sum of above depicting ACSSg) and lens thickness/axial length ratio (LT/AL), cup disc ratio and baseline intraocular pressure (IOP) to give total score (ACSSt). There were significant differences in ACSSg scores within the same ISGEO stage of PAC and PACG between eyes that required nil or >1medicines after laser iridotomy, p<0.001. The ACSSg was associated with need for >1 medicines in both PAC and PACG eyes, p<0.001. An ACSSg score>12 and 14 in PAC (odds ratio = 2.7(95% CI-1.7-5.9) and PACG (Odds ratio = 1.6(95%CI-1.19-2.2) predicted need for single medicines while ACSSg scores >14 and 19 predicted need for ≥2 medicines in PAC and PACG eyes, respectively. The LT/Al ratio, IOP score or cup disc score did not influence the need for medical treatment independently. The ACSS can be a useful clinical adjunct to the ISGEO system to predict need for medicines and prognosticate each stage more accurately.

  5. A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Pan, Qun-Xiong; Su, Zi-Jian; Zhang, Jian-Hua; Wang, Chong-Ren; Ke, Shao-Ying

    2015-01-01

    Background People’s Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors. Objective To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection. Methods The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and prognostic index (PI) were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage. Results In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001), serum albumin (P<0.001), GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002), NLR (P<0.001), PI (P<0.001), PNI (P<0.001), and TNM stage (P<0.001) were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024), NLR (P=0.012), PI (P=0.001), TNM stage (P<0.001), and degree of differentiation (P=0.002) were independent predictors of gastric cancer survival. GPS and TNM stage had a comparable prognostic value and higher linear trend chi-square value, likelihood ratio chi-square value, and larger area under the receiver operating

  6. A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Pan, Qun-Xiong; Su, Zi-Jian; Zhang, Jian-Hua; Wang, Chong-Ren; Ke, Shao-Ying

    2015-01-01

    People's Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors. To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection. The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and prognostic index (PI) were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage. In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001), serum albumin (P<0.001), GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002), NLR (P<0.001), PI (P<0.001), PNI (P<0.001), and TNM stage (P<0.001) were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024), NLR (P=0.012), PI (P=0.001), TNM stage (P<0.001), and degree of differentiation (P=0.002) were independent predictors of gastric cancer survival. GPS and TNM stage had a comparable prognostic value and higher linear trend chi-square value, likelihood ratio chi-square value, and larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as compared to other

  7. A Distributed Approach to System-Level Prognostics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics, which deals with predicting remaining useful life of components, subsystems, and systems, is a key technology for systems health management that leads to improved safety and reliability with reduced costs. The prognostics problem is often approached from a component-centric view. However, in most cases, it is not specifically component lifetimes that are important, but, rather, the lifetimes of the systems in which these components reside. The system-level prognostics problem can be quite difficult due to the increased scale and scope of the prognostics problem and the relative Jack of scalability and efficiency of typical prognostics approaches. In order to address these is ues, we develop a distributed solution to the system-level prognostics problem, based on the concept of structural model decomposition. The system model is decomposed into independent submodels. Independent local prognostics subproblems are then formed based on these local submodels, resul ting in a scalable, efficient, and flexible distributed approach to the system-level prognostics problem. We provide a formulation of the system-level prognostics problem and demonstrate the approach on a four-wheeled rover simulation testbed. The results show that the system-level prognostics problem can be accurately and efficiently solved in a distributed fashion.

  8. Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perotti, Jose M.

    2015-01-01

    The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the end of life. The capability also provides an assessment of the remaining useful life of a hardware component. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. This project will use modeling techniques and algorithms to assess components' health andpredict remaining life for such components. The prognostics capability being developed will beused:during the design phase and during pre/post operations to conduct planning and analysis ofsystem design, maintenance & logistics plans, and system/mission operations plansduring real-time operations to monitor changes to components' health and assess their impacton operations.This capability will be interfaced to Ground Operations' command and control system as a part ofthe AGSM project to help assure system availability and mission success. The initial modelingeffort for this capability will be developed for Liquid Oxygen ground loading applications.

  9. On the joint use of propensity and prognostic scores in estimation of the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated: A simulation study

    PubMed Central

    Leacy, Finbarr P.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    Summary Propensity and prognostic score methods seek to improve the quality of causal inference in non-randomized or observational studies by replicating the conditions found in a controlled experiment, at least with respect to observed characteristics. Propensity scores model receipt of the treatment of interest; prognostic scores model the potential outcome under a single treatment condition. While the popularity of propensity score methods continues to grow, prognostic score methods and methods combining propensity and prognostic scores have thus far received little attention. To this end, we performed a simulation study that compared subclassification and full matching on a single estimated propensity or prognostic score with three approaches combining estimated propensity and prognostic scores: full matching on a Mahalanobis distance combining the estimated propensity and prognostic scores (FULL-MAHAL); full matching on the estimated prognostic propensity score within propensity score calipers (FULL-PGPPTY); and subclassification on an estimated propensity and prognostic score grid with 5 × 5 subclasses (SUBCLASS(5*5)). We considered settings in which one, both or neither score model was misspecified. The data generating mechanisms varied in the degree of linearity and additivity in the true treatment assignment and outcome models. FULL-MAHAL and FULL-PGPPTY exhibited strong to superior performance in root mean square error terms across all simulation settings and scenarios. Methods combining propensity and prognostic scores were no less robust to model misspecification than single-score methods even when both score models were incorrectly specified. Our findings support the joint use of propensity and prognostic scores in estimation of the average treatment effect on the treated. PMID:24151187

  10. Survival Prediction for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients: Revision of the Palliative Prognostic Score with Incorporation of Delirium

    PubMed Central

    Maltoni, Marco; Miceli, Rosalba; Mariani, Luigi; Caraceni, Augusto; Amadori, Dino; Nanni, Oriana

    2011-01-01

    Purpose. An existing and validated palliative prognostic (PaP) score predicts survival in terminally ill cancer patients based on dyspnea, anorexia, Karnofsky performance status score, clinical prediction of survival, total WBC, and lymphocyte percentage. The PaP score assigns patients to three different risk groups according to a 30-day survival probability—group A, >70%; group B, 30%–70%; group C, <30%. The impact of delirium is known but was not incorporated into the PaP score. Materials and Methods. Our aim was to incorporate information on delirium into the PaP score based on a retrospective series of 361 terminally ill cancer patients. We followed the approach of “validation by calibration,” proposed by van Houwelingen and later adapted by Miceli for achieving score revision with inclusion of a new variable. The discriminating performance of the scores was estimated using the K statistic. Results. The prognostic contribution of delirium was confirmed as statistically significant (p < .001) and the variable was accordingly incorporated into the PaP score (D-PaP score). Following this revision, 30-day survival estimates in groups A, B, and C were 83%, 50%, and 9% for the D-PaP score and 87%, 51%, and 16% for the PaP score, respectively. The overall performance of the D-PaP score was better than that of the PaP score. Conclusion. The revision of the PaP score was carried out by modifying the cutoff values used for prognostic grouping without, however, affecting the partial scores of the original tool. The performance of the D-PaP score was better than that of the PaP score and its key feature of simplicity was maintained. PMID:22042788

  11. Sensor Systems for Prognostics and Health Management

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Shunfeng; Azarian, Michael H.; Pecht, Michael G.

    2010-01-01

    Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an enabling discipline consisting of technologies and methods to assess the reliability of a product in its actual life cycle conditions to determine the advent of failure and mitigate system risk. Sensor systems are needed for PHM to monitor environmental, operational, and performance-related characteristics. The gathered data can be analyzed to assess product health and predict remaining life. In this paper, the considerations for sensor system selection for PHM applications, including the parameters to be measured, the performance needs, the electrical and physical attributes, reliability, and cost of the sensor system, are discussed. The state-of-the-art sensor systems for PHM and the emerging trends in technologies of sensor systems for PHM are presented. PMID:22219686

  12. Sensor systems for prognostics and health management.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Shunfeng; Azarian, Michael H; Pecht, Michael G

    2010-01-01

    Prognostics and health management (PHM) is an enabling discipline consisting of technologies and methods to assess the reliability of a product in its actual life cycle conditions to determine the advent of failure and mitigate system risk. Sensor systems are needed for PHM to monitor environmental, operational, and performance-related characteristics. The gathered data can be analyzed to assess product health and predict remaining life. In this paper, the considerations for sensor system selection for PHM applications, including the parameters to be measured, the performance needs, the electrical and physical attributes, reliability, and cost of the sensor system, are discussed. The state-of-the-art sensor systems for PHM and the emerging trends in technologies of sensor systems for PHM are presented.

  13. Comparison of nine prognostic scores in patients with brain metastases of breast cancer receiving radiotherapy of the brain.

    PubMed

    Laakmann, Elena; Riecke, Kerstin; Goy, Yvonne; Kersten, Jan F; Krüll, Andreas; Müller, Volkmar; Petersen, Cordula; Witzel, Isabell

    2016-01-01

    Several prognostic indices (PI) have been developed to stratify patients with brain metastases in groups with good or bad prognosis. The aim of our study was to compare nine prognostic scores for patients with brain metastases (BM) of breast cancer receiving radiotherapy. The clinical data of 139 breast cancer patients with BM were collected retrospectively. All patients were treated with cerebral radiotherapy or surgery followed by radiotherapy between January 2007 and December 2012. The prognostic value and accuracy of recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), RPA II, graded prognostic assessment (GPA), basic score for BM, Breast-RPA, Breast-GPA, Rades Score 2011, Germany Score and Breast Rades Score were assessed. The median survival after BM diagnosis in our cohort was 14 months. The overall 6-month, 1-, 2- and 3-year survival rates were 49.6, 37.4, 20.9 and 13.7 %, respectively. Most of the PI were associated with OS, but univariate analysis favored GPA regarding OS. GPA was the most accurate score to identify patients with long (longer than 12 months) and Breast-GPA patients with short (<3 months) life expectancy. GPA and Breast-GPA seem to be the most useful scores and perform better than other PI for breast cancer patients with BM receiving radiotherapy.

  14. An 8-gene qRT-PCR-based gene expression score that has prognostic value in early breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Gene expression profiling may improve prognostic accuracy in patients with early breast cancer. Our objective was to demonstrate that it is possible to develop a simple molecular signature to predict distant relapse. Methods We included 153 patients with stage I-II hormonal receptor-positive breast cancer. RNA was isolated from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples and qRT-PCR amplification of 83 genes was performed with gene expression assays. The genes we analyzed were those included in the 70-Gene Signature, the Recurrence Score and the Two-Gene Index. The association among gene expression, clinical variables and distant metastasis-free survival was analyzed using Cox regression models. Results An 8-gene prognostic score was defined. Distant metastasis-free survival at 5 years was 97% for patients defined as low-risk by the prognostic score versus 60% for patients defined as high-risk. The 8-gene score remained a significant factor in multivariate analysis and its performance was similar to that of two validated gene profiles: the 70-Gene Signature and the Recurrence Score. The validity of the signature was verified in independent cohorts obtained from the GEO database. Conclusions This study identifies a simple gene expression score that complements histopathological prognostic factors in breast cancer, and can be determined in paraffin-embedded samples. PMID:20584321

  15. Framingham Risk Score as a Prognostic Predictor of Sudden Sensorineural Hearing Loss: A Preliminary Study.

    PubMed

    Chang, Young-Soo; Choi, Ji Eun; Ahn, Jungmin; Ryu, Nam-Gyu; Moon, Il Joon; Hong, Sung Hwa; Cho, Yang-Sun; Chung, Won-Ho

    2017-05-01

    Predicting the prognosis of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSHL) remains challenging. This investigation aimed to apply Framingham Risk Scores (FRS) to assess the combination of prognostic factors following ISSHL and investigate the predictive role of FRS in patients with multiple comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia. Retrospective study. Twenty-one patients presenting with unilateral idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss and multiple comorbidities were surveyed. Framingham Risk Score was calculated, and patients were assigned into high-risk (FRS ≥20%) and low-risk (FRS <20%) groups. Mean pure tone audiometry (PTA) threshold of both groups and hearing outcomes following established criteria were investigated. All patients were treated with the same protocol of oral methylprednisolone. Overall successful recovery rate (complete + marked recovery) was 23.81%. The mean PTA threshold of the low-risk group showed significant improvement (mean PTA ± standard error, SE: pretreatment, 73.23 ± 11.80; posttreatment, 54.89 ± 10.25, P = .002), while the high-risk group did not show significant improvement in mean PTA threshold (mean PTA ± SE: pretreatment, 71.94 ± 11.77; posttreatment, 68.89 ± 12.81, P = .73). Framingham Risk Scores may be useful in predicting outcomes for ISSHL patients with multiple comorbidities.

  16. Conservative management of rotator cuff tears: literature review and proposal for a prognostic. Prediction Score

    PubMed Central

    Merolla, Giovanni; Paladini, Paolo; Saporito, Marco; Porcellini, Giuseppe

    2011-01-01

    Summary Rotator cuff tears are a common cause of pain and shoulder dysfunction. The prevalence of the rotator cuff tears increases with the age reaching the 80% in patients aged more than 80 year. Symptomatic shoulders usually are initially treated conservatively and then, in case of poor outcomes, with surgery. Different parameters are still used to decide between the conservative or surgical treatment in patients with rotator cuff tears. Aim of the current study is to characterize the various features used in decision making and to validate a “Prediction Score” that let us know which patients could have a good and stable outcome with non operative treatment. We enrolled 60 patients (mean age 52 years) with symptomatic rotator cuff tears who were assigned to conservative treatment and were evaluated at 6,9 and 12 months follow-up. We developed a score based on 18 clinical and radiographic parameters. 27 patients (“non conservative”) (45%) with a mean prediction score of 16.1 ± 1.7 interrupted the conservative treatment, while 33 patients (“conservative”) (55%) with an average prediction score of 11.3 ± 1.8 remained conservatively treated at last follow-up. The conservative patients were 14 years older than non conservative patients. According to the results of this study we identified a value of 13 points as a “cut-off” score to predict good results by conservative management of rotator cuff tear. These outcomes support the assumption that a predictive prognostic score may guarantee a rational approach in the management of subjects with RC tears, especially in elderly who continue to have the higher rate of recurrence and therefore could be well treated with standard conservative therapies. PMID:23738239

  17. Estimation of conditional and marginal odds ratios using the prognostic score.

    PubMed

    Hajage, David; De Rycke, Yann; Chauvet, Guillaume; Tubach, Florence

    2017-02-20

    Introduced by Hansen in 2008, the prognostic score (PGS) has been presented as 'the prognostic analogue of the propensity score' (PPS). PPS-based methods are intended to estimate marginal effects. Most previous studies evaluated the performance of existing PGS-based methods (adjustment, stratification and matching using the PGS) in situations in which the theoretical conditional and marginal effects are equal (i.e., collapsible situations). To support the use of PGS framework as an alternative to the PPS framework, applied researchers must have reliable information about the type of treatment effect estimated by each method. We propose four new PGS-based methods, each developed to estimate a specific type of treatment effect. We evaluated the ability of existing and new PGS-based methods to estimate the conditional treatment effect (CTE), the (marginal) average treatment effect on the whole population (ATE), and the (marginal) average treatment effect on the treated population (ATT), when the odds ratio (a non-collapsible estimator) is the measure of interest. The performance of PGS-based methods was assessed by Monte Carlo simulations and compared with PPS-based methods and multivariate regression analysis. Existing PGS-based methods did not allow for estimating the ATE and showed unacceptable performance when the proportion of exposed subjects was large. When estimating marginal effects, PPS-based methods were too conservative, whereas the new PGS-based methods performed better with low prevalence of exposure, and had coverages closer to the nominal value. When estimating CTE, the new PGS-based methods performed as well as traditional multivariate regression. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Scoring system for prediction of metastatic spine tumor prognosis

    PubMed Central

    Tokuhashi, Yasuaki; Uei, Hiroshi; Oshima, Masashi; Ajiro, Yasumitsu

    2014-01-01

    Assessing the prognosis before treatment for metastatic spine tumor is extremely important in therapy selection. Therefore, we review some prognostic scoring systems and their outcomes. Articles with combinations of two keywords among “metastatic spine tumor” and “prognosis”, “score”, “scoring system”, “predicting”, or “life expectancy” were searched for in PubMed. As a result, 236 articles were extracted. Those referring to representative scoring systems about predicting the survival of patients with metastatic spine tumors were used. The significance and limits of these scoring systems, and the future perspectives were described. Tokuhashi score, Tomita score, Baur score, Linden score, Rades score, and Katagiri score were introduced. They are all scoring systems prepared by combining factors that affect prognosis. The primary site of cancer and visceral metastasis were common factors in all of these scoring systems. Other factors selected to influence the prognosis varied. They were useful to roughly predict the survival period, such as, “more than one year or not” or “more than six months or not”. In particular, they were utilized for decision-making about operative indications and avoidance of excessive medical treatment. Because the function depended on the survival period in the patients with metastatic spine tumor, it was also utilized in assessing functional prognosis. However, no scoring system had more than 90% consistency between the predicted and actual survival periods. Future perspectives should adopt more oncological viewpoints with adjustment of the process of treatment for metastatic spine tumor. PMID:25035829

  19. A Prognostic Model Using Inflammation- and Nutrition-Based Scores in Patients With Metastatic Gastric Adenocarcinoma Treated With Chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Hsieh, Meng-Che; Wang, Shih-Hor; Chuah, Seng-Kee; Lin, Yu-Hung; Lan, Jui; Rau, Kun-Ming

    2016-04-01

    The outcomes of patients with metastatic gastric cancer (mGC) are poor. Recent studies have identified the prognostic impact of inflammatory response and nutritional status on survival for patients with gastric cancer. This study aims to create a prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores to predict survival in patients with mGC treated with chemotherapy.After institutional review board approval, patients who had mGC and were treated with chemotherapy from 2007 to 2012 at Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Significantly predictive factors were identified by multivariate Cox regression analyses. Based on these variables, a prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores was constructed to predict survival. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to estimate overall survival. The c-statistic values with 95% confidence interval (CI) were also calculated to access their predicting performances.Our study consisted of 256 patients with a median age of 60 years and a median follow-up visit of 18.5 months. Multivariate analyses showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS), and Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) were independently related to survival. After computing these scores, patients were classified into favorable-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups. The median overall survival were 27.6 versus 13.2 versus 8.2 months in favorable, intermediate, and poor-risk groups, respectively. The 2-year survival rate was 52% versus 16% versus 3% in favorable-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, respectively. (P < 0.001). The c-statistic value of our model at 2 years is 0.8 (95% CI, 0.75-0.86).NLR, mGPS, and PG-SGA were independently related to survival. Our prognostic model using inflammatory- and nutrition-based scores could provide prognostic information to patients and physicians.

  20. Prognostic value of number and site of calcified coronary lesions compared with the total score.

    PubMed

    Williams, Marcus; Shaw, Leslee J; Raggi, Paolo; Morris, Douglas; Vaccarino, Viola; Liu, Sandy T; Weinstein, Steven R; Mosler, Tristen P; Tseng, Philip H; Flores, Ferdinand R; Nasir, Khurram; Budoff, Matthew

    2008-01-01

    This study sought to evaluate the long-term prognostic value of the number and sites of calcified coronary lesions and to compare the accuracy of number of calcified lesions with the extent of total calcium score. There is a strong relationship between mortality and total coronary artery calcium (CAC) score. It is not known whether the number of calcified lesions or their location influences outcome. A total of 14,759 asymptomatic patients were referred for evaluation of CAC scanning using electron beam tomography. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to estimate time to all-cause mortality at, on average, 6.8 years (n = 281). Risk-adjusted annual mortality was 0.19% (95% confidence interval 0.18% to 0.21%) for patients without any calcified lesions. For patients with >20 lesions, annual risk-adjusted mortality exceeded 2% per year. Mortality rates were significantly higher for left main lesions as compared to other coronary arteries with annual mortality rates of 1.3%, 2.1%, 9.2%, and 13.6% for 1 to 2, 3 to 5, and > or =6 lesions, respectively (p < 0.0001). For left main CAC scores of 0 to 10, 11 to 100, 101 to 399, and 400 to 999, annual risk-adjusted mortality was 0.33%, 0.81%, 1.73%, and 7.71%, respectively (p < 0.0001). All 4 patients with a CAC score of > or =1,000 in the left main died during follow-up. However, patients with more frequent calcified lesions also had higher CAC scores. Specifically, > or =81% of patients with >10 calcified lesions also had a CAC score > or =100. With exception, for patients with CAC scores > or =1,000, annual mortality was dramatically higher at 3.0% to 4.5% for those with 1 to 5 calcified lesions as compared with 1.1% to 2.0% for those with 6 or more lesions (p < 0.0001). We report that mortality rates increased proportionally with the number of calcified lesions. Although predictive information is contained in the number of calcified lesions, its added statistical value is minimal

  1. Postoperative outcome after oesophagectomy for cancer: Nutritional status is the missing ring in the current prognostic scores.

    PubMed

    Filip, B; Scarpa, M; Cavallin, F; Cagol, M; Alfieri, R; Saadeh, L; Ancona, E; Castoro, C

    2015-06-01

    Several prognostic scores were designed in order to estimate the risk of postoperative adverse events. None of them includes a component directly associated to the nutritional status. The aims of the study were the evaluation of performance of risk-adjusted models for early outcomes after oesophagectomy and to develop a score for severe complication prediction with special consideration regarding nutritional status. A comparison of POSSUM and Charlson score and their derivates, ASA, Lagarde score and nutritional index (PNI) was performed on 167 patients undergoing oesophagectomy for cancer. A logistic regression model was also estimated to obtain a new prognostic score for severe morbidity prediction. Overall morbidity was 35.3% (59 cases), severe complications (grade III-V of Clavien-Dindo classification) occurred in 20 cases. Discrimination was poor for all the scores. Multivariable analysis identified pulse, connective tissue disease, PNI and potassium as independent predictors of severe morbidity. This model showed good discrimination and calibration. Internal validation using standard bootstrapping techniques confirmed the good performance. Nutrition could be an independent risk factor for major complications and a nutritional status coefficient could be included in current prognostic scores to improve risk estimation of major postoperative complications after oesophagectomy for cancer. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Farinati, Fabio; Vitale, Alessandro; Spolverato, Gaya; Pawlik, Timothy M; Huo, Teh-la; Lee, Yun-Hsuan; Frigo, Anna Chiara; Giacomin, Anna; Giannini, Edoardo G; Ciccarese, Francesca; Piscaglia, Fabio; Rapaccini, Gian Lodovico; Di Marco, Mariella; Caturelli, Eugenio; Zoli, Marco; Borzio, Franco; Cabibbo, Giuseppe; Felder, Martina; Sacco, Rodolfo; Morisco, Filomena; Biasini, Elisabetta; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Svegliati Baroni, Gianluca; Virdone, Roberto; Masotto, Alberto; Trevisani, Franco; Cillo, Umberto

    2016-04-01

    Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC. Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child-Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26-106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12-61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2-3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4-5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese patients, the ITA.LI.CA score maintained

  3. The prognostic value and pathobiological significance of Glasgow microenvironment score in gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Zhi-Hua; Ji, Cheng-Dong; Zhu, Jiang; Xiao, Hua-Liang; Zhao, Hai-Bin; Cui, You-Hong; Bian, Xiu-Wu

    2017-05-01

    To evaluate the prognostic value and pathobiological significance of Glasgow microenvironment score (GMS), a parameter based on tumor stroma percentage and inflammatory cell infiltration, in gastric cancer. A total of 225 cases of gastric cancer were histologically reviewed, and GMS was evaluated for each case. The association between GMS and patients' survival was investigated. Then the relationship between GMS and mismatch repair (MMR) status, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection were determined using immunohistochemistry (IHC) and in situ hybridization, and the expression of PD1/PD-L1 was examined. Furthermore, the amount of cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs), the content and maturity of collagen components were detected using IHC, Picrosirius Red staining and second harmonic generation imaging. GMS was significantly associated with clinical outcomes of gastric cancer, and multivariate analysis indicated that GMS was an independent factor (HR 1.725, P = 0.002). Low GMS was a manifestation of better prognosis and inflammatory tumor microenvironment, which was related to MMR deficiency (P = 0.042) and EBV infection (P = 0.032), and within this microenvironment, expression of PD-L1 in carcinoma cells (P = 0.030) or in inflammatory cells (P = 0.029) was significantly higher. In contrast, high GMS linked to a poorer survival and desmoplastic stroma, in which there existed markedly increased CAFs and collagen deposition. GMS can serve as a useful prognostic factor for gastric cancer, and according to GMS, the tumor microenvironment in this cancer type may be partially classified as inflammatory or desmoplastic microenvironment that possesses different pathobiological features.

  4. Evaluation of Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score for Pancreatic Cancer: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Imaoka, Hiroshi; Mizuno, Nobumasa; Hara, Kazuo; Hijioka, Susumu; Tajika, Masahiro; Tanaka, Tsutomu; Ishihara, Makoto; Yogi, Tatsuji; Tsutsumi, Hideharu; Fujiyoshi, Toshihisa; Sato, Takamitsu; Shimizu, Yasuhiro; Niwa, Yasumasa; Yamao, Kenji

    2016-02-01

    The modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) is known to be useful in determining the prognosis of cancers. However, the utility of mGPS for pancreatic cancer (PC) has been examined based primarily on a surgical series of early-stage cancers. The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of mGPS for PC of all stages using a retrospective cohort design. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from a computerized database. A total of 807 patients with pathologically confirmed PC were analyzed (mGPS-0, n = 620; mGPS-1, n = 153; mGPS-2, n = 34). Median overall survival (OS) was significantly worse for the mGPS-1 group than for the mGPS-0 group (5.8 vs 15.8 months, respectively) but was comparable between the mGPS-2 and mGPS-1 groups (4.8 vs 5.8 months, respectively). After adjustment, both mGPS-1 and mGPS-2 were independent predictive factors of OS (mGPS-1: hazard ratio, 1.772; 95% confidence interval, 1.417-2.215; mGPS-2: hazard ratio, 2.033; 95% confidence interval, 1.284-3.219). Subgroup analysis showed that OS was significantly worse in the mGPS-1 and mGPS-2 groups than in the mGPS-0 group for all except the following 2 subgroups: localized disease and curative resection. The present results show that the mGPS is an independent prognostic factor in patients with PC, especially for advanced-stage disease.

  5. Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score is a prognostic marker for gastric cancer patients after curative resection.

    PubMed

    Kuroda, Daisuke; Sawayama, Hiroshi; Kurashige, Junji; Iwatsuki, Masaaki; Eto, Tsugio; Tokunaga, Ryuma; Kitano, Yuki; Yamamura, Kensuke; Ouchi, Mayuko; Nakamura, Kenichi; Baba, Yoshifumi; Sakamoto, Yasuo; Yamashita, Yoichi; Yoshida, Naoya; Chikamoto, Akira; Baba, Hideo

    2017-06-27

    Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT), as calculated from serum albumin, total cholesterol concentration, and total lymphocyte count, was previously shown to be useful for nutritional assessment. The current study investigated the potential use of CONUT as a prognostic marker in gastric cancer patients after curative resection. Preoperative CONUT was retrospectively calculated in 416 gastric cancer patients who underwent curative resection at Kumamoto University Hospital from 2005 to 2014. The patients were divided into two groups: CONUT-high (≥4) and CONUT-low (≤3), according to time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The associations of CONUT with clinicopathological factors and survival were evaluated. CONUT-high patients were significantly older (p < 0.001) and had a lower body mass index (p = 0.019), deeper invasion (p < 0.001), higher serum carcinoembryonic antigen (p = 0.037), and higher serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (p = 0.007) compared with CONUT-low patients. CONUT-high patients had significantly poorer overall survival (OS) compared with CONUT-low patients according to univariate and multivariate analyses (hazard ratio: 5.09, 95% confidence interval 3.12-8.30, p < 0.001). In time-dependent ROC analysis, CONUT had a higher area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the prediction of 5-year OS than the neutrophil lymphocyte ratio, the Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, or pStage. When the time-dependent AUC curve was used to predict OS, CONUT tended to maintain its predictive accuracy for long-term survival at a significantly higher level for an extended period after surgery when compared with the other markers tested. CONUT is useful for not only estimating nutritional status but also for predicting long-term OS in gastric cancer patients after curative resection.

  6. The efficiency of tennis doubles scoring systems.

    PubMed

    Pollard, Geoff; Pollard, Graham

    2010-01-01

    In this paper a family of scoring systems for tennis doubles for testing the hypothesis that pair A is better than pair B versus the alternative hypothesis that pair B is better than A, is established. This family or benchmark of scoring systems can be used as a benchmark against which the efficiency of any doubles scoring system can be assessed. Thus, the formula for the efficiency of any doubles scoring system is derived. As in tennis singles, one scoring system based on the play-the-loser structure is shown to be more efficient than the benchmark systems. An expression for the relative efficiency of two doubles scoring systems is derived. Thus, the relative efficiency of the various scoring systems presently used in doubles can be assessed. The methods of this paper can be extended to a match between two teams of 2, 4, 8, …doubles pairs, so that it is possible to establish a measure for the relative efficiency of the various systems used for tennis contests between teams of players. Key pointsA relatively straightforward expression or formula for the efficiency of a tennis doubles scoring system has been established.The expression for the relative efficiency of two tennis doubles scoring systems is a simple one, and is the same as that for two singles scoring systems.The methodology of this paper can be used and extended so that the efficiency of a scoring system for a match between two teams of doubles pairs can be measured.

  7. Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Spolverato, Gaya; Pawlik, Timothy M.; Huo, Teh-la; Lee, Yun-Hsuan; Frigo, Anna Chiara; Giacomin, Anna; Giannini, Edoardo G.; Ciccarese, Francesca; Piscaglia, Fabio; Rapaccini, Gian Lodovico; Caturelli, Eugenio; Zoli, Marco; Borzio, Franco; Cabibbo, Giuseppe; Sacco, Rodolfo; Morisco, Filomena; Biasini, Elisabetta; Foschi, Francesco Giuseppe; Gasbarrini, Antonio; Svegliati Baroni, Gianluca; Virdone, Roberto; Trevisani, Franco; Cillo, Umberto

    2016-01-01

    Background Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC. Methods and Findings Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child–Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26–106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12–61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2–3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4–5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese

  8. Additional prognostic role of EGFR activating mutations in lung adenocarcinoma patients with brain metastasis: integrating with lung specific GPA score.

    PubMed

    Lee, Dae-Won; Shin, Dong-Yeop; Kim, Jin Wook; Keam, Bhumsuk; Kim, Tae Min; Kim, Hak Jae; Kim, Dong-Wan; Wu, Hong-Gyun; Paek, Sun Ha; Kim, Young Whan; Heo, Dae Seog; Kim, Dong Gyu; Lee, Se-Hoon

    2014-12-01

    While several prognostic models have been presented in NSCLC patients with brain metastasis, none of these models have included molecular markers as an index. The aim of our study was to evaluate the prognostic value of EGFR mutations and to integrate these EGFR mutations into the prognostic index in NSCLC patients with brain metastasis. We analyzed retrospectively 292 lung adenocarcinoma patients with brain metastasis. Clinico-pathological features and overall survival (OS) were compared between patients with EGFR mutations and patients with EGFR wild type. EGFR mutation status was integrated with lung specific graded prognostic assessment (GPA) score. Among 292 patients, EGFR mutation status was tested in 183 patients. One hundred and five patients (57.4%) had EGFR activating mutations, 14 (7.7%) had EGFR non-activating mutations and 64 (35.0%) had EGFR wild type. OS was significantly longer in patients with EGFR activating mutations than in those with EGFR wild type patients (20.4 vs. 10.1 months, p = 0.002). However, patients with EGFR non-activating mutations did not show superior OS compared with EGFR wild type patients (14.6 vs. 10.1 months, p = 0.83). Multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of EGFR activating mutation is an independent positive prognostic factor for OS (adjusted hazard ratio 0.56, p = 0.002). EGFR activating mutations have a prognostic role in lung adenocarcinoma patients with brain metastasis that is independent of other known prognostic factors. The frequency of EGFR mutation was higher than expected. The presence of EGFR activating mutations should be included as an index in the prognostic models for lung adenocarcinoma patients with brain metastasis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A novel inflammation-based prognostic score for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: the c-reactive protein/prognostic nutritional index ratio

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Sheng; Yang, Xun; Feng, Ji-Feng

    2016-01-01

    Background Inflammation plays a critical role in cancer prognosis. In the current study, we proposed a novel inflammation-based prognostic score, named c-reactive protein/prognostic nutritional index ratio (CRP/PNI ratio), for predicting the prognosis for patients with resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Results The optimal cut-off value was 0.10 for CRP/PNI ratio according to the ROC curve. Patients with CRP/PNI ratio ≤0.10 had a significantly better 5-year CSS compared to CRP/PNI ratio >0.10 (44.5% vs. 15.7%, P<0.001). On multivariate analyses, we revealed that CRP/PNI ratio was a significant predictive factor of CSS (P=0.009). A nomogram could be more accuracy for CSS. The Harrell's c-index for CSS prediction was 0.688. Materials and Methods A total of 308 patients with resectable ESCC were enrolled in this retrospective study. The optimal cuf-off value for CRP/PNI ratio was calculated by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to analyse the cancer-specific survival (CSS). Univariate and multivariate analyses were evaluated for CSS. A nomogram was also established to predict the prognosis for CSS. Conclusion The CRP/PNI ratio is a novel and useful prognostic score for CSS in patients with resectable ESCC. PMID:27557504

  10. [Scoring systems in intensive care medicine : principles, models, application and limits].

    PubMed

    Fleig, V; Brenck, F; Wolff, M; Weigand, M A

    2011-10-01

    Scoring systems are used in all diagnostic areas of medicine. Several parameters are evaluated and rated with points according to their value in order to simplify a complex clinical situation with a score. The application ranges from the classification of disease severity through determining the number of staff for the intensive care unit (ICU) to the evaluation of new therapies under study conditions. Since the introduction of scoring systems in the 1980's a variety of different score models has been developed. The scoring systems that are employed in intensive care and are discussed in this article can be categorized into prognostic scores, expenses scores and disease-specific scores. Since the introduction of compulsory recording of two scoring systems for accounting in the German diagnosis-related groups (DRG) system, these tools have gained more importance for all intensive care physicians. Problems remain in the valid calculation of scores and interpretation of the results.

  11. Relationship between nutritional status and the Glasgow Prognostic Score in patients with colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Maurício, Sílvia Fernandes; da Silva, Jacqueline Braga; Bering, Tatiana; Correia, Maria Isabel Toulson Davisson

    2013-04-01

    The association between nutritional status and inflammation was assessed in patients with colorectal cancer and to verify their association with complications during anticancer treatment. The agreement between the Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) and different nutritional assessment methods was also evaluated. A cross-sectional, prospective, and descriptive study was performed. The nutritional status was defined by the SGA and the severity of inflammation was defined by the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS). The complications were classified using the Common Toxicity Criteria, version 3. Anthropometric measurements such as body mass index, triceps skinfold, midarm circumference, midarm muscle area, and adductor pollicis muscle thickness were also performed, as were handgrip strength and phase angle. The chi-square test, Fisher exact test, Spearman correlation coefficient, independent t test, analysis of variance, Gabriel test, and κ index were used for the statistical analysis. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Seventy patients with colorectal cancer (60.4 ± 14.3 y old) were included. The nutritional status according to the SGA was associated with the GPS (P < 0.05), but the SGA and GPS were not related to the presence of complications. When comparing the different nutritional assessment methods with the SGA, there were statistically significant differences. Malnutrition is highly prevalent in patients with colorectal cancer. The nutritional status was associated with the GPS. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Prognostic Utility of Cell Cycle Progression Score in Men With Prostate Cancer After Primary External Beam Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Freedland, Stephen J.; Gerber, Leah; Reid, Julia; Welbourn, William; Tikishvili, Eliso; Park, Jimmy; Younus, Adib; Gutin, Alexander; Sangale, Zaina; Lanchbury, Jerry S.; Salama, Joseph K.; Stone, Steven

    2013-08-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic utility of the cell cycle progression (CCP) score, a RNA signature based on the average expression level of 31 CCP genes, for predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) in men with prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) as their primary curative therapy. Methods and Materials: The CCP score was derived retrospectively from diagnostic biopsy specimens of men diagnosed with prostate cancer from 1991 to 2006 (n=141). All patients were treated with definitive EBRT; approximately half of the cohort was African American. Outcome was time from EBRT to BCR using the Phoenix definition. Median follow-up for patients without BCR was 4.8 years. Association with outcome was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards survival analysis and likelihood ratio tests. Results: Of 141 patients, 19 (13%) had BCR. The median CCP score for patient samples was 0.12. In univariable analysis, CCP score significantly predicted BCR (P=.0017). The hazard ratio for BCR was 2.55 for 1-unit increase in CCP score (equivalent to a doubling of gene expression). In a multivariable analysis that included Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen, percent positive cores, and androgen deprivation therapy, the hazard ratio for CCP changed only marginally and remained significant (P=.034), indicating that CCP provides prognostic information that is not provided by standard clinical parameters. With 10-year censoring, the CCP score was associated with prostate cancer-specific mortality (P=.013). There was no evidence for interaction between CCP and any clinical variable, including ethnicity. Conclusions: Among men treated with EBRT, the CCP score significantly predicted outcome and provided greater prognostic information than was available with clinical parameters. If validated in a larger cohort, CCP score could identify high-risk men undergoing EBRT who may need more aggressive therapy.

  13. The Glasgow Prognostic Score and its variants predict mortality in living donor but not in deceased donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: A double-center validation study.

    PubMed

    Kaltenborn, Alexander; Schrem, Harald; Reichert, Benedikt; Braun, Felix; Emmanouilidis, Nikos; Klempnauer, Jürgen; Becker, Thomas; Heits, Nils

    2017-07-01

    This study aimed to evaluate whether the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) and its variants are able to predict mortality in live donor and deceased donor liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma. Data of 29 live donor and 319 deceased donor transplantations from two German transplant centers was analyzed. The GPS, modified GPS, hepatic GPS, and Abe score were investigated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was carried out to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, and overall model correctness of the investigated scores as a predictive model. Study end-points were 1-year, 3-year, and long-term mortality. A 1-year mortality of 19.1% (n = 61), 3-year mortality of 26.3% (n = 84), and overall mortality of 37.3% (n = 119) was observed. All investigated scores failed to predict outcome in deceased donor liver transplantation (areas under ROC curves <0.700), whereas GPS, hepatic GPS, modified GPS, and the Abe score reached areas under ROC curves >0.700 for the prediction of 1-year mortality in live donor transplantation. The GPS and Abe score were also able to predict 3-year mortality. None of the investigated scores was a reliable predictor of long-term mortality. Systemic inflammation-based scores have great prognostic potential in live donor transplantation. Abe score could be successfully externally validated in the current study for the first time. In deceased donor transplantation, none of the analyzed scores was able to allow reliable prediction for the investigated study end-points. © 2016 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

  14. Prognostic Impact of 21-Gene Recurrence Score in Patients With Stage IV Breast Cancer: TBCRC 013.

    PubMed

    King, Tari A; Lyman, Jaclyn P; Gonen, Mithat; Voci, Amy; De Brot, Marina; Boafo, Camilla; Sing, Amy Pratt; Hwang, E Shelley; Alvarado, Michael D; Liu, Minetta C; Boughey, Judy C; McGuire, Kandace P; Van Poznak, Catherine H; Jacobs, Lisa K; Meszoely, Ingrid M; Krontiras, Helen; Babiera, Gildy V; Norton, Larry; Morrow, Monica; Hudis, Clifford A

    2016-07-10

    The objective of this study was to determine whether the 21-gene Recurrence Score (RS) provides clinically meaningful information in patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer enrolled in the Translational Breast Cancer Research Consortium (TBCRC) 013. TBCRC 013 was a multicenter prospective registry that evaluated the role of surgery of the primary tumor in patients with de novo stage IV breast cancer. From July 2009 to April 2012, 127 patients from 14 sites were enrolled; 109 (86%) patients had pretreatment primary tumor samples suitable for 21-gene RS analysis. Clinical variables, time to first progression (TTP), and 2-year overall survival (OS) were correlated with the 21-gene RS by using log-rank, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox regression. Median patient age was 52 years (21 to 79 years); the majority had hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative (72 [66%]) or hormone receptor-positive/HER2-positive (20 [18%]) breast cancer. At a median follow-up of 29 months, median TTP was 20 months (95% CI, 16 to 26 months), and median survival was 49 months (95% CI, 40 months to not reached). An RS was generated for 101 (93%) primary tumor samples: 22 (23%) low risk (< 18), 29 (28%) intermediate risk (18 to 30); and 50 (49%) high risk (≥ 31). For all patients, RS was associated with TTP (P = .01) and 2-year OS (P = .04). In multivariable Cox regression models among 69 patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/HER2-negative cancer, RS was independently prognostic for TTP (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.86; P = .02) and 2-year OS (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.14 to 2.95; P = .013). The 21-gene RS is independently prognostic for both TTP and 2-year OS in ER-positive/HER2-negative de novo stage IV breast cancer. Prospective validation is needed to determine the potential role for this assay in the clinical management of this patient subset. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  15. Overall Survival in Spine Myeloma Metastases: Difficulties in Predicting With Prognostic Scores.

    PubMed

    Amelot, Aymeric; Cristini, Joseph; Salaud, Céline; Moles, Alexis; Hamel, Olivier; Moreau, Philippe; Bord, Eric; Buffenoir, Kevin

    2017-03-15

    Fifty-one patients with spinal multiple myeloma (MM) metastases were operated and followed between January 2004 and July 2014. The aim of this study was to consider the efficiency of surgical prognosis scores in the management of spinal metastases myelomas. The spine is the most common site of bone metastases in MM. Surgery in spine metastases MM is a matter of debate and its impact on the increase of a patient's survival time is not clear. Several surgical survival scores have been developed to determine the best treatment in these patients. We studied 51 patients operated for spinal MM metastases between January 2004 and July 2014. We determined the Tokuhashi and Tomita survival scores and compared them with documented patient survivals. The two scores were also compared with the International Staging System (ISS). Median survival (MS) was 108 months [standard deviation (SD) 62] for ISS I, 132.2 (SD 40) for ISS II, and 45.5 months (SD 16.3) for ISS III (P = 0.09). According to Tokuhashi survival score, 21 patients (41.2%) will survive <6 months, 6 (11.8%) 6 to 12 months, and 24 (47%) >12 months. According to Tomita et al., 50 patients (98%) will survive >49.9 months and 1 patient (2%) <15 months. Regardless of the ISS grade prognosis, Tokuhashi survival score, and to a lesser extent Tomita score, underestimated the actual survival very significantly [P < 0.0001, Log Rank (Mantel-Cox)]. We suggest that spine surgical prognosis scores are not accurate and are not able to predict the survival of patients with spine myeloma metastases. Spine surgeons have to be guided not by the initial ISS stage but rather by spinal instability and neurological status. N/A.

  16. Model of End-Stage Liver Disease Score and Derived Variants Lack Prognostic Ability after Liver Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Kaltenborn, Alexander; Salinas, Ricardo; Jäger, Mark D; Lehner, Frank; Sakirow, Larissa; Klempnauer, Jürgen; Schrem, Harald

    2015-08-04

    BACKGROUND The model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is currently used for donor liver allocation in many regions. The objective of this retrospective study was to assess the MELD score and its diverse variants as prognostic models for mortality after liver transplantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS An analysis of 454 consecutive adult liver transplants since the introduction of MELD-based donor liver allocation was conducted. Eight different MELD score variants were investigated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, and overall model correctness of the investigated scores as a predictive model. The Brier score was used for the prediction of model accuracy and calculated as described before. Study endpoints were 90-day mortality and long-term patient mortality. RESULTS A 90-day mortality of 15.4% (n=69) and long-term mortality of 25% (n=112) were observed. All investigated models fail to reach relevant areas under the ROC curve greater than 0.700 for the prediction of mortality after liver transplantation. All calculated Brier scores were greater than 0.25, indicating a significant lack of model discrimination and calibration of the investigated scores. CONCLUSIONS A prognostic model for the prediction of outcome after transplantation still needs to be identified and should allow weighing urgency against utility in liver transplantation.

  17. Outcome Prediction after Traumatic Brain Injury: Comparison of the Performance of Routinely Used Severity Scores and Multivariable Prognostic Models

    PubMed Central

    Majdan, Marek; Brazinova, Alexandra; Rusnak, Martin; Leitgeb, Johannes

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: Prognosis of outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI) is important in the assessment of quality of care and can help improve treatment and outcome. The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of relatively simple injury severity scores between each other and against a gold standard model – the IMPACT-extended (IMP-E) multivariable prognostic model. Materials and Methods: For this study, 866 patients with moderate/severe TBI from Austria were analyzed. The prognostic performances of the Glasgow coma scale (GCS), GCS motor (GCSM) score, abbreviated injury scale for the head region, Marshall computed tomographic (CT) classification, and Rotterdam CT score were compared side-by-side and against the IMP-E score. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and Nagelkerke's R2 were used to assess the prognostic performance. Outcomes at the Intensive Care Unit, at hospital discharge, and at 6 months (mortality and unfavorable outcome) were used as end-points. Results: Comparing AUCs and R2s of the same model across four outcomes, only little variation was apparent. A similar pattern is observed when comparing the models between each other: Variation of AUCs <±0.09 and R2s by up to ±0.17 points suggest that all scores perform similarly in predicting outcomes at various points (AUCs: 0.65–0.77; R2s: 0.09–0.27). All scores performed significantly worse than the IMP-E model (with AUC > 0.83 and R2 > 0.42 for all outcomes): AUCs were worse by 0.10–0.22 (P < 0.05) and R2s were worse by 0.22–0.39 points. Conclusions: All tested simple scores can provide reasonably valid prognosis. However, it is confirmed that well-developed multivariable prognostic models outperform these scores significantly and should be used for prognosis in patients after TBI wherever possible. PMID:28149077

  18. No prognostic value added by vitamin D pathway SNPs to current prognostic system for melanoma survival

    PubMed Central

    Orlow, Irene; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Thomas, Nancy E.; Fang, Shenying; Lee, Jeffrey E.; Berwick, Marianne; Lee, Ji-Hyun

    2017-01-01

    The prognostic improvement attributed to genetic markers over current prognostic system has not been well studied for melanoma. The goal of this study is to evaluate the added prognostic value of Vitamin D Pathway (VitD) SNPs to currently known clinical and demographic factors such as age, sex, Breslow thickness, mitosis and ulceration (CDF). We utilized two large independent well-characterized melanoma studies: the Genes, Environment, and Melanoma (GEM) and MD Anderson studies, and performed variable selection of VitD pathway SNPs and CDF using Random Survival Forest (RSF) method in addition to Cox proportional hazards models. The Harrell’s C-index was used to compare the performance of model predictability. The population-based GEM study enrolled 3,578 incident cases of cutaneous melanoma (CM), and the hospital-based MD Anderson study consisted of 1,804 CM patients. Including both VitD SNPs and CDF yielded C-index of 0.85, which provided slight but not significant improvement by CDF alone (C-index = 0.83) in the GEM study. Similar results were observed in the independent MD Anderson study (C-index = 0.84 and 0.83, respectively). The Cox model identified no significant associations after adjusting for multiplicity. Our results do not support clinically significant prognostic improvements attributable to VitD pathway SNPs over current prognostic system for melanoma survival. PMID:28323902

  19. The modified Glasgow prognostic score in patients undergoing surgery for bone and soft tissue sarcoma.

    PubMed

    Morhij, Rossel; Mahendra, Ashish; Jane, Mike; McMillan, Donald C

    2017-05-01

    The prognostic significance of markers of the systemic inflammatory response in patients with soft tissue and bone sarcomas remains unclear. Therefore, the present study aimed to compare the prognostic value of markers of the systemic inflammatory response in patients undergoing surgery for primary soft tissue and bone sarcoma. Patients who underwent resection of primary soft tissue/bone sarcoma between 2008 and 2012 and had pre-operative measurements of the systemic inflammatory response [C-reactive protein, albumin, white cell, neutrophil, lymphocyte and platelet counts, and the combination of C-reactive protein and albumin (mGPS)] were included in the study (n = 111). The majority of the patients were ≤50 years old (84%), were female (63%), had soft tissue sarcoma (62%), and had tumours >10 cm (52%), mostly of high grade (85%). The median follow-up of survivors was 50 months (range 34-78); 24 (21%) developed local recurrence, 35 (31%) developed distant metastases and 30 (30%) died of their cancer. On univariate analysis, tumour size (P < 0.001), tumour grade (P < 0.001), C-reactive protein level (P < 0.001), albumin level (P < 0.001) and mGPS (P < 0.001) were significantly associated with distant recurrence-free survival. On a multivariate analysis, only tumour size [hazard ratios (HR) 2.57, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.14-5.32, P < 0.05], tumour grade (HR 7.01, 95% CI 0.94-52.17, P < 0.10) and mGPS (HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.31-2.83, P < 0.01) were independently associated with distant recurrence-free survival. On a multivariate analysis, only tumour size (HR 2.85, 95% CI 1.10-7.39, P < 0.05) and the mGPS (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.31-3.16, P < 0.01) were independently associated with cancer-specific survival. The systemic inflammatory response, as evidenced by the mGPS, was an important independent predictor of recurrence-free survival and cancer-specific survival in patients undergoing surgery for bone and soft tissue sarcoma. Copyright © 2017

  20. Prognostic Utility of a Modified HEART Score in Chest Pain Patients in the Emergency Department.

    PubMed

    McCord, James; Cabrera, Rafael; Lindahl, Bertil; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Evans, Kaleigh; Nowak, Richard; Frisoli, Tiberio; Body, Richard; Christ, Michael; deFilippi, Christopher R; Christenson, Robert H; Jacobsen, Gordon; Alquezar, Aitor; Panteghini, Mauro; Melki, Dina; Plebani, Mario; Verschuren, Franck; French, John; Bendig, Garnet; Weiser, Silvia; Mueller, Christian

    2017-02-01

    The TRAPID-AMI trial study (High-Sensitivity Troponin-T Assay for Rapid Rule-Out of Acute Myocardial Infarction) evaluated high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-T (hs-cTnT) in a 1-hour acute myocardial infarction (AMI) exclusion algorithm. Our study objective was to evaluate the prognostic utility of a modified HEART score (m-HS) within this trial. Twelve centers evaluated 1282 patients in the emergency department for possible AMI from 2011 to 2013. Measurements of hs-cTnT (99th percentile, 14 ng/L) were performed at 0, 1, 2, and 4 to 14 hours. Evaluation for major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) occurred at 30 days (death or AMI). Low-risk patients had an m-HS≤3 and had either hs-cTnT<14 ng/L over serial testing or had AMI excluded by the 1-hour protocol. By the 1-hour protocol, 777 (60%) patients had an AMI excluded. Of those 777 patients, 515 (66.3%) patients had an m-HS≤3, with 1 (0.2%) patient having a MACE, and 262 (33.7%) patients had an m-HS≥4, with 6 (2.3%) patients having MACEs (P=0.007). Over 4 to 14 hours, 661 patients had a hs-cTnT<14 ng/L. Of those 661 patients, 413 (62.5%) patients had an m-HS≤3, with 1 (0.2%) patient having a MACE, and 248 (37.5%) patients had an m-HS≥4, with 5 (2.0%) patients having MACEs (P=0.03). Serial testing of hs-cTnT over 1 hour along with application of an m-HS identified a low-risk population that might be able to be directly discharged from the emergency department. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  1. Traumatic open globe injury in young pediatric patients: characterization of a novel prognostic score.

    PubMed

    Read, Sarah P; Cavuoto, Kara M

    2016-04-01

    Open globe injury is a common cause of monocular blindness in children. Current formulas to predict outcomes of open globe injury often rely heavily on visual acuity and presence of an afferent pupillary defect, examination elements that are difficult to assess in young children. We aimed to analyze the features of open globe injuries in children aged 0-6 years to facilitate development of a novel algorithm for predicting visual outcomes in this age group. The medical records of patients 0-6 years of age presenting at a single institution with open globe injury from 2000 to 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. Epidemiology, physical examination, and intervention data were used to develop a prognostic algorithm. A total of 28 patients were included. Mean age at presentation was 4.2 years (range, 1.9-6.7). Glass was the most common mechanism of injury. Associated findings included uveal prolapse (93%), choroidal detachment (39%), hyphema (32%), and retinal detachment (11%). In addition to primary repair, 43% patients required a lensectomy, and 7% underwent surgery to repair retinal detachment. Complicating cataract (P < 0.005) and a wound >6 mm (P < 0.05) were associated with a final visual acuity worse than 20/40. A novel algorithm for predicting visual outcome was devised with a sensitivity of 81% and a specificity of 92%. Patients 0-6 years of age with open globe injuries present unique risk factors for poor outcome. The trauma score generated by our algorithm is not reliant on presenting visual acuity and may be useful in predicting prognosis in very young children. Copyright © 2016 American Association for Pediatric Ophthalmology and Strabismus. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Comparison of the prognostic values of selected inflammation based scores in patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma: A pilot study.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Ke; Lei, Jianyong; Li, Canjun; Shu, Kunpeng; Li, Wenbin; Zhang, Yuwei; Li, Zhihui; Gong, Rixiang; Zhu, Jingqiang

    2017-09-01

    The significance of inflammation based scores including the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), derived neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (dNLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and plasma fibrinogen remains unclear in medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). We aimed to compare the prognostic value of these scores. Seventy-eight patients newly diagnosed as MTC with operation in our institution from May 2009 to September 2016 were retrospectively evaluated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Kaplan-Meier analyses were calculated to compare the prognostic value of these scores. Increased PLR was predictive of lymph node metastasis (AUC = 0.644, P = 0.022), capsule invasion (AUC = 0.666, P = 0.007), advanced tumor stages (AUC = 0.657, P = 0.011), and recurrence (AUC = 0.655, P = 0.049). Increased fibrinogen was predictive of lymph node metastasis (AUC = 0.669, P = 0.006) and capsule invasion (AUC = 0.631, P = 0.038). Reduced PNI was predictive of recurrence (AUC = 0.655, P = 0.049). Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox regression analysis revealed that PLR was a significant predictor for recurrence. PLR, fibrinogen, and PNI are all predictive. Specially, PLR is superior to other inflammation based scores in terms of prognostic ability. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Impact of the pretreatment Glasgow prognostic score on treatment tolerance, toxicities, and survival in patients with advanced head and neck cancer undergoing concurrent chemoradiotherapy.

    PubMed

    Chang, Pei-Hung; Yeh, Kun-Yun; Wang, Cheng-Hsu; Chen, Eric Yen-Chao; Yang, Shih-Wei; Huang, Jen-Seng; Chou, Wen-Chi; Hsieh, Jason Chia-Hsun

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of the pretreatment Glasgow prognostic score on treatment-related toxicities, tolerance, and survival in patients with advanced head and neck cancers undergoing concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT). We retrospectively analyzed and compared the clinical characteristics, toxicities, and survival of 143 patients with stages III, IVA, and IVB head and neck cancer treated with concurrent CRT according to their Glasgow prognostic score between 2007 and 2010. The Glasgow prognostic score was correlated with advanced tumor stage and T/N classification. Patients with a higher Glasgow prognostic score were less likely to tolerate concurrent CRT, experienced more weight loss, required tube feeding support more frequently, and had higher percentage of grade ≥3 hematological toxicities, sepsis, and toxic death. Patients with a Glasgow prognostic score of 0 had better overall and recurrence-free survival than those with a Glasgow prognostic score of 1 or 2. Pretreatment Glasgow prognostic score predicts treatment tolerance, toxicity, and survival in patients with advanced head and neck cancer undergoing concurrent CRT. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. A PROGNOSTIC SCORE FOR ACUTE GRAFT-VERSUS-HOST DISEASE BASED ON BIOMARKERS: A MULTICENTER STUDY

    PubMed Central

    Levine, John E.; Braun, Thomas M.; Harris, Andrew C.; Holler, Ernst; Taylor, Austin; Miller, Holly; Magenau, John; Weisdorf, Daniel J.; Ho, Vincent T.; Bolaños-Meade, Javier; Alousi, Amin M.; Ferrara, L.M.

    2015-01-01

    SUMMARY Background Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is the major cause of non-relapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HCT). The severity of symptoms at the onset of GVHD does not accurately define risk, and thus most patients are treated alike with high dose systemic corticosteroids. We aimed to define clinically meaningful risk strata for patients with newly diagnosed acute GVHD using plasma biomarkers. Methods We prospectively collected plasma from 492 HCT patients with newly diagnosed acute GVHD and randomly divided them into training (n=328) and test (n=164) sets. We used the concentrations of three recently validated biomarkers (TNFR1, ST2, and REG3α) to create an algorithm that computed the probability of NRM six months after GVHD onset for individual patients in the training set alone. We rank ordered the probabilities and identified thresholds that created three distinct NRM scores. We evaluated the algorithm in the testset, and again in an independent validation set of 300 additional HCT patients enrolled on multicenter clinical trials of primary therapy for acute GVHD. Findings In all three datasets, the cumulative incidence of twelve month NRM significantly increased as the GVHD score increased (8% [95% confidence interval (CI); 3%, 16%], 27% [95% CI; 20%%, 34%], and 46% [95% CI; 33%, 58%], for scores 1, 2 and 3 respectively in the multicenter validation set, p<0 · 0001). Conversely, the response rates to primary GVHD treatment decreased as the GVHD score increased (86%, 67%, and 46%, for scores 1, 2 and 3 respectively in the multicenter validation set, p<0 · 0001). Interpretation Biomarker-based scores can be used to guide risk-adapted therapy at the onset of acute GVHD. PMID:26687425

  5. A Bayesian Approach to Learning Scoring Systems.

    PubMed

    Ertekin, Şeyda; Rudin, Cynthia

    2015-12-01

    We present a Bayesian method for building scoring systems, which are linear models with coefficients that have very few significant digits. Usually the construction of scoring systems involve manual effort-humans invent the full scoring system without using data, or they choose how logistic regression coefficients should be scaled and rounded to produce a scoring system. These kinds of heuristics lead to suboptimal solutions. Our approach is different in that humans need only specify the prior over what the coefficients should look like, and the scoring system is learned from data. For this approach, we provide a Metropolis-Hastings sampler that tends to pull the coefficient values toward their "natural scale." Empirically, the proposed method achieves a high degree of interpretability of the models while maintaining competitive generalization performances.

  6. Evaluation of the Glasgow Prognostic Score in patients receiving chemoradiotherapy for stage III and IV esophageal cancer.

    PubMed

    Kimura, J; Kunisaki, C; Makino, H; Oshima, T; Ota, M; Oba, M; Takagawa, R; Kosaka, T; Ono, H A; Akiyama, H; Endo, I

    2016-11-01

    High Glasgow Prognostic scores (GPSs) have been associated with poor outcomes in various tumors, but the values of GPS and modified GPS (mGPS) in patients with advanced esophageal cancer receiving chemoradiotherapy (CRT) has not yet been reported. We have evaluated these with respect to predicting responsiveness to CRT and long-term survival. Between January 2002 and December 2011, tumor responses in 142 esophageal cancer patients (131 men and 11 women) with stage III (A, B and C) and IV receiving CRT were assessed. We assessed the value of the GPS as a predictor of a response to definitive CRT and also as a prognostic indicator in patients with esophageal cancer receiving CRT. We found that independent predictors of CRT responsiveness were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, GPS and cTNM stage. Independent prognostic factors were ECOG performance status and GPS for progression-free survival and ECOG performance status, GPS and cTNM stage IV for disease-specific survival. GPS may be a novel predictor of CRT responsiveness and a prognostic indicator for progression-free and disease-specific survival in patients with advanced esophageal cancer. However, a multicenter study as same regime with large number of patients will be needed to confirm these outcomes. © 2015 International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

  7. A Novel Prognostic Score, Based on Preoperative Nutritional Status, Predicts Outcomes of Patients after Curative Resection for Gastric Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xuechao; Qiu, Haibo; Liu, Jianjun; Chen, Shangxiang; Xu, Dazhi; Li, Wei; Zhan, Youqing; Li, Yuanfang; Chen, Yingbo; Zhou, Zhiwei; Sun, Xiaowei

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: We aimed to determine whether preoperative nutritional status (PNS) was a valuable predictor of outcome in patients with gastric cancer (GC). METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 1320 patients with GC undergoing curative resection. The PNS score was constructed based on four objective and easily measurable criteria: prognostic nutritional index (PNI) score 1, serum albumin <35 g/L, body mass index (BMI) <18.5 kg/m2, or preoperative weight loss ≥5% of body weight. The PNS score was 2 for patients who met three or four criteria, 1 for those who met one or two criteria, and 0 for those who didn't meet all of these criteria. RESULTS: The overall survival (OS) rates in patients with PNS scores 0, 1, and 2 were 59.1%, 42.4%, and 23.4%, respectively (P < 0.001). Multivariate analyses revealed the PNS was an independent predictor for OS (HR for PNS 1 and PNS 2: 1.497, 95 % CI: 1.230-1.820 and 2.434, 95 % CI: 1.773-3.340, respectively; p < 0.001). Furthermore, 5-year OS ranged from 92% (stage I) to 37% (stage III), while the combination of TNM and PNS stratified 5-year OS from 95% (TNM I, PNS 0) to 19% (TNM III, PNS 3). Of note, the prognostic significance of PNS was still maintained when stratified by TNM stage, age, sex, tumor size, anemia and adjuvant chemotherapy (All P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The PNS, a novel nutritional-based prognostic score, is independently associated with OS in GC. Prospective studies are needed to validate its clinical utility. PMID:27877232

  8. A Novel Prognostic Score, Based on Preoperative Nutritional Status, Predicts Outcomes of Patients after Curative Resection for Gastric Cancer.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xuechao; Qiu, Haibo; Liu, Jianjun; Chen, Shangxiang; Xu, Dazhi; Li, Wei; Zhan, Youqing; Li, Yuanfang; Chen, Yingbo; Zhou, Zhiwei; Sun, Xiaowei

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: We aimed to determine whether preoperative nutritional status (PNS) was a valuable predictor of outcome in patients with gastric cancer (GC). METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 1320 patients with GC undergoing curative resection. The PNS score was constructed based on four objective and easily measurable criteria: prognostic nutritional index (PNI) score 1, serum albumin <35 g/L, body mass index (BMI) <18.5 kg/m(2), or preoperative weight loss ≥5% of body weight. The PNS score was 2 for patients who met three or four criteria, 1 for those who met one or two criteria, and 0 for those who didn't meet all of these criteria. RESULTS: The overall survival (OS) rates in patients with PNS scores 0, 1, and 2 were 59.1%, 42.4%, and 23.4%, respectively (P < 0.001). Multivariate analyses revealed the PNS was an independent predictor for OS (HR for PNS 1 and PNS 2: 1.497, 95 % CI: 1.230-1.820 and 2.434, 95 % CI: 1.773-3.340, respectively; p < 0.001). Furthermore, 5-year OS ranged from 92% (stage I) to 37% (stage III), while the combination of TNM and PNS stratified 5-year OS from 95% (TNM I, PNS 0) to 19% (TNM III, PNS 3). Of note, the prognostic significance of PNS was still maintained when stratified by TNM stage, age, sex, tumor size, anemia and adjuvant chemotherapy (All P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The PNS, a novel nutritional-based prognostic score, is independently associated with OS in GC. Prospective studies are needed to validate its clinical utility.

  9. Stage IV and age over 45 years are the only prognostic factors of the International Prognostic Score for the outcome of advanced Hodgkin lymphoma in the Spanish Hodgkin Lymphoma Study Group series.

    PubMed

    Guisado-Vasco, Pablo; Arranz-Saez, Reyes; Canales, Miguel; Cánovas, Araceli; Garcia-Laraña, José; García-Sanz, Ramón; Lopez, Andrés; López, José Luis; Llanos, Marta; Moraleda, José Maria; Rodriguez, José; Rayón, Consuelo; Sabin, Pilar; Salar, Antonio; Marín-Niebla, Ana; Morente, Manuel; Sánchez-Godoy, Pedro; Tomás, José Francisco; Muriel, Alfonso; Abraira, Victor; Piris, Miguel A; Garcia, Juán F; Montalban, Carlos

    2012-05-01

    The International Prognostic Score (IPS) is the most widely used system to date for identifying risk groups for the outcome of patients with advanced Hodgkin lymphoma, although important limitations have been recognized. We analyzed the value of the IPS in a series of 311 patients with advanced classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) (Ann Arbor stage III, IV or stage II with B symptoms and/or bulky masses) treated with first-line chemotherapy including adriamycin (adriamycin, bleomycin, vinblastine, dacarbazine [ABVD] or equivalent variants). In univariate and multivariate analyses, stage IV disease and age ≥ 45 years were the only factors with independent predictive significance for overall survival (OS) (p = 0.002 and p < 0.001, respectively). Stage IV was still significant for freedom from progression (FFP) (p = 0.001) and age ≥ 45 years was borderline significant (p = 0.058). IPS separates prognostic groups, as in the original publication, but this is mainly due to the high statistical significance of stage IV and age ≥ 45 years. Moreover, the combination of these two factors enables a simpler system to be constructed that separates groups with different FFP and OS. In conclusion, in our series, stage IV and age ≥ 45 years are the key prognostic factors for the outcome of advanced cHL.

  10. Impaired hepato-renal function defined by the MELD XI score as prognosticator in acute heart failure.

    PubMed

    Biegus, Jan; Zymliński, Robert; Sokolski, Mateusz; Siwołowski, Paweł; Gajewski, Piotr; Nawrocka-Millward, Sylwia; Poniewierka, Elżbieta; Jankowska, Ewa A; Banasiak, Waldemar; Ponikowski, Piotr

    2016-12-01

    Multi-organ dysfunction often complicates the natural course of acute heart failure (AHF) and identifies patients with poor prognosis. The MELD score (Model of End-Stage Liver Dysfunction) combines data reflecting liver and kidney function, which makes it a potentially useful tool for the assessment of patients with AHF. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic utility of the MELD score in patients with AHF. The MELD score was calculated on admission and during hospital stay (days 2-3) using a formula that does not take into account the international normalized ratio (MELD XI). The study population consisted of 203 AHF patients (mean age 65 ± 12 years, 76% male). The mean MELD XI score was -14.8 ± 4.5 points on admission and 13.9 ± 4.3 points during hospitalization. Contributors of elevated MELD XI score at baseline and during hospital stay were isolated increase in creatinine in 22-25%, isolated increase in bilirubin in 17-19%, and abnormal values of both in 40-46% of patients. During 1-year follow-up, 67 (33%) patients died. After adjustment for well-established prognosticators, MELD XI score at baseline and during hospital stay were significant predictors of poor outcome [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 1.11 (1.05-1.2) and 1.14 (1.09-1.2), respectively, P < 0.001]. An increase in the MELD XI score during hospital stay occurred in 31% of patients and was related to increased risk of death at 1 year [1.97 (1.2-3.2), P < 0.005]. Impairment of hepato-renal function defined by the MELD XI score is common and carries unfavourable prognosis in AHF patients. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2016 European Society of Cardiology.

  11. [Comparison of two prognostic scores (PRISM and PIM) at a pediatric intensive care unit].

    PubMed

    Martha, Vanessa Feller; Garcia, Pedro Celiny Ramos; Piva, Jefferson Pedro; Einloft, Paulo Roberto; Bruno, Francisco; Rampon, Viviane

    2005-01-01

    To compare the performance of the PRISM (Pediatric Risk of Mortality) and the PIM (Pediatric Index of Mortality) scores at a general pediatric intensive care unit, investigating the relation between observed mortality and survival and predicted mortality and survival. A contemporary cohort study undertaken between 1 June 1999 and 31 May 2000 at the Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul, Hospital São Lucas pediatric intensive care unit. The inclusion criteria and the PRISM and PIM calculations were performed as set out in the original articles and using the formulae as published. Statistical analysis for model evaluation employed the Flora z test, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, ROC curve (receiver operating characteristic) and Spearman's correlation tests. The study was approved by the institution's Ethics Committee. Four hundred and ninety-eight patients were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit, 77 of whom presented exclusion criteria. Thirty-three (7.83%) of the 421 patients studied died and 388 patients were discharged. Estimated mortality by PRISM was 30.84 (7.22%) with a standardized mortality rate of 1.07 (0.74-1.50), z = -0.45 and by PIM this was 26.13 (6.21%) with a standardized mortality rate of 1.26 (0.87-1.77), z = -1.14. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test gave a chi-square of 9.23 (p = 0.100) for PRISM and 27.986 (p < 0.001) for PIM. The area under the ROC curve was 0.870 (0.810-0.930) for PRISM and 0.845 (0.769-0.920) for PIM. The Spearman test returned r = 0.65 (p < 0.001). Analyzing the tests we can observe that, although the PIM test was less well calibrated overall, both PRISM and PIM offer a good capacity for discriminating between survivors and moribund patients. They are tools with comparable performance at the prognostic evaluation of the pediatric patients admitted to our unit.

  12. Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

    PubMed

    Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

    2017-09-01

    We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Diagnosis. Severity scoring system for paediatric FMF.

    PubMed

    Livneh, Avi

    2012-04-17

    Severity scoring systems for adult familial Mediterranean fever (FMF) are established and used as important clinical and analytical tools in disease management and research. A recent paper highlights the need for a paediatric FMF severity measure. How should such a score be built and what challenges might be faced?

  14. An accurate prognostic staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma patients after curative hepatectomy

    PubMed Central

    TOKUMITSU, YUKIO; TAMESA, TAKAO; MATSUKUMA, SATOSHI; HASHIMOTO, NORIAKI; MAEDA, YOSHINARI; TOKUHISA, YOSHIHIRO; SAKAMOTO, KAZUHIKO; UENO, TOMIO; HAZAMA, SHOICHI; OGIHARA, HIROYUKI; FUJITA, YUSUKE; HAMAMOTO, YOSHIHIKO; OKA, MASAAKI; IIZUKA, NORIO

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop an accurate predictive system for prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after hepatectomy. We pooled data of clinicopathological features of 234 HCC patients who underwent curative hepatectomy. On the basis of the pooled data, we established a simple predictive staging system (PS score) scored by the mathematical product of tumor number and size, and degree of liver function. We compared the prognostic abilities of the PS score (score 0–3) with those of six well-known clinical staging systems. Then, we found that there were significant differences (P<0.05) in both disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) between patients with different PS scores (PS score 0 vs. 1; PS score 1 vs. 2), and there was a significant difference in DFS, but not OS, between patients with PS score 2 and those with PS score 3. Moreover, the PS score had smaller values of the Akaike information criterion for both DFS and OS than any of the six well-known clinical staging systems. These results suggest that the PS score serves as a simple, accurate predictor for the prognosis of HCC patients after hepatectomy. PMID:25524574

  15. Prognostic value of early warning scores in the emergency department (ED) and acute medical unit (AMU): A narrative review.

    PubMed

    Nannan Panday, R S; Minderhoud, T C; Alam, N; Nanayakkara, P W B

    2017-10-06

    A wide array of early warning scores (EWS) have been developed and are used in different settings to detect which patients are at risk of deterioration. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of studies conducted on the value of EWS on predicting intensive care (ICU) admission and mortality in the emergency department (ED) and acute medical unit (AMU). A literature search was conducted in the bibliographic databases PubMed and EMBASE, from inception to April 2017. Two reviewers independently screened all potentially relevant titles and abstracts for eligibility. 42 studies were included. 36 studies reported on mortality as an endpoint, 13 reported ICU admission and 9 reported the composite outcome of mortality and ICU admission. For mortality prediction National Early Warning Score (NEWS) was the most accurate score in the general ED population and in those with respiratory distress, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis score (MEDS) had the best accuracy in patients with an infection or sepsis. ICU admission was best predicted with NEWS, however in patients with an infection or sepsis Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) yielded better results for this outcome. MEWS and NEWS generally had favourable results in the ED and AMU for all endpoints. Many studies have been performed on ED and AMU populations using heterogeneous prognostic scores. However, future studies should concentrate on a simple and easy to use prognostic score such as NEWS with the aim of introducing this throughout the (pre-hospital and hospital) acute care chain. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. The prognostic value of the Modified Early Warning Score in critically ill patients: a prospective, observational study.

    PubMed

    Reini, Kirsi; Fredrikson, Mats; Oscarsson, Anna

    2012-03-01

    The Modified Early Warning Score is a validated assessment tool for detecting risk of deterioration in patients at risk on medical and surgical wards. To assess the prognostic ability of the Modified Early Warning Score in predicting outcome after critical care. A prospective observational study. A tertiary care general ICU. Five hundred and eighteen patients aged at least 16 years admitted to the ICU at Linköping University Hospital were included. The Modified Early Warning Score was documented on arrival at the ICU and every hour for as long as the patient was breathing spontaneously, until discharge from the ICU. The primary endpoint was mortality in the ICU. Secondary endpoints were 30-day mortality, length of stay and readmission to the ICU. Patients with a Modified Early Warning Score of at least six had significantly higher mortality in the ICU than those with a Modified Early Warning Score <6 (24 vs. 3.4%, P < 0.001). A Modified Early Warning Score of at least six was an independent predictor of mortality in the ICU [odds ratio (OR) 5.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.4-20.6]. The prognostic ability of the Modified Early Warning Score on admission to the ICU [area under the curve (AUC) 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.88] approached those of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score III (AUC 0.89, 95% CI 0.83-0.94) and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score on admission (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.86-0.97). A Modified Early Warning Score of at least six on admission was also an independent predictor of 30-day mortality (OR 4.3, 95% CI 2.3-8.1) and length of stay in the ICU (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.4-3.8). In contrast, the Modified Early Warning Score on discharge from the ICU did not predict the need for readmission. This study shows that the Modified Early Warning Score is a useful predictor of mortality in the ICU, 30-day mortality and length of stay in the ICU.

  17. The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) as a novel and significant predictor of extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type.

    PubMed

    Li, Ya-Jun; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Huang, Jia-Jia; Xia, Zhong-Jun; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Li, Zhi-Ming

    2013-05-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score including C-reactive protein and albumin, shows significant prognostic value in several types of solid tumors. The prognostic value of GPS in lymphoma remains unclear. We performed this study to evaluate the prognostic significance of GPS in extranodal natural killer (NK)/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL). We retrospectively analyzed 164 patients with newly diagnosed ENKL. The prognostic value of GPS was evaluated and compared with that of International Prognostic Index (IPI), Prognostic Index for Peripheral T-cell lymphoma unspecified (PIT), and Korean Prognostic Index (KPI). Patients with higher GPS tended to have more adverse clinical characteristics, lower rates of complete remission (P < 0.001), inferior progression-free survival (PFS, P < 0.001), and inferior overall survival (OS, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that high GPS, age > 60 years, and elevated LDH were independent adverse predictors of OS. GPS was found superior to IPI, PIT, and KPI in discriminating patients with different outcomes in low-risk groups (all P < 0.05). GPS is an independent predictor of survival outcomes in ENKL. Inflammatory response might play an important role in the progression of ENKL and survival of patients with ENKL.

  18. Prognostic Value of the Clinical SYNTAX Score on 2-Year Outcomes in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome Who Underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

    PubMed

    He, Chen; Song, Ying; Wang, Chuang-Shi; Yao, Yi; Tang, Xiao-Fang; Zhao, Xue-Yan; Gao, Run-Lin; Yang, Yue-Jin; Xu, Bo; Yuan, Jin-Qing

    2017-03-01

    This prospective, single-center, observational study evaluated prognostic value of clinical SYNTAX score (CSS) on 2-year outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The SYNTAX score (SS) is a scoring system based on the complexity and severity of coronary lesions and is thought to be a prognostic tool to predict long-term outcomes. However, SS was a sole angiographic grading tool only with no consideration for clinical factors. There are few studies investigating the prognostic value of CSS in patients with ACS who underwent PCI. From January 2013 to December 2013, 6,099 consecutive patients with ACS admitted to FuWai hospital and underwent PCI were enrolled in this study. Based on CSS, patients were divided into low CSS group (CSS ≤ 6.5; 2,012 patients), mid-CSS group (6.5 < CSS < 13.8; 2,056 patients), and high CSS group (CSS ≥ 13.8; 2,031 patients). At 2-year follow-up, rates of cardiac death and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were significantly higher in the high CSS group. Compared with baseline SS, CSS demonstrated significantly improved performance for 2-year cardiac death (receiver-operating characteristic curve C-statistic: 0.74 vs 0.62, p <0.001) but not for MACE (receiver-operating characteristic curve C-statistic: 0.60 vs 0.59, p = 0.29). By multivariable analysis, the CSS combined with PCI history and hypertension were strong predictors for cardiac death and CSS, intra-aortic balloon pump support, diabetes, and successful PCI were independent predictors for MACE. In conclusion, compared with the anatomic SS, CSS was suitable in risk stratifying and predicting 2-year clinical outcome among ACS population.

  19. Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) can be a useful indicator to determine prognosis of patients with colorectal carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Nozoe, Tadahiro; Matono, Rumi; Ijichi, Hideki; Ohga, Takefumi; Ezaki, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based score, has been used to predict the biologic behavior of malignant tumors. The aim of the current study was to elucidate a further significance of GPS in colorectal carcinoma. Correlation of GPS and modified GPS (mGPS), which are composed of combined score provided for serum elevation of C-reactive protein and hypoalbuminemia examined before surgical treatment, with clinicopathologic features was investigated in 272 patients with colorectal carcinoma. Survival of GPS 1 patients was significantly worse than that of GPS 0 patients (P= 0.009), and survival of GPS 2 patients was significantly worse than that of GPS 1 patients (P < 0.0001). Similarly, survival of mGPS 1 patients was significantly worse than that of mGPS 0 patients (P = 0.009), and survival of mGPS 2 patients was significantly worse than that of mGPS 1 patients (P = 0.0006). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that GPS (P < 0.0001) as well as tumor stage (P= 0.004) and venous invasion (P = 0.011) were factors independently associated with worse prognosis. Both GPS and mGPS could classify outcome of patients with a clear stratification, and could be applied as prognostic indicators in colorectal carcinoma.

  20. Revalidation of a prognostic score model based on complete blood count for nasopharyngeal carcinoma through a prospective study

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xiaohui; Chang, Hui; Tao, Yalan; Wang, Xiaohui; Gao, Jin; Zhang, Wenwen; Chen, Chen; Xia, Yunfei

    2016-01-01

    Objective In our previous work, we incorporated complete blood count (CBC) into TNM stage to develop a new prognostic score model, which was validated to improve prediction efficiency of TNM stage for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The purpose of this study was to revalidate the accuracy of the model, and its superiority to TNM stage, through data from a prospective study. Methods CBC of 249 eligible patients from the 863 Program No. 2006AA02Z4B4 was evaluated. Prognostic index (PI) of each patient was calculated according to the score model. Then they were divided by the PI into three categories: the low-, intermediate-and high-risk patients. The 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) of the three categories was compared by a log-rank test. The model and TNM stage (7th edition) were compared on efficiency for predicting the 5-year DSS, through comparison of the area under curve (AUC) of their receiver-operating characteristic curves. Results The 5-year DSS of the low-, intermediate-and high-risk patients were 96.0%, 79.1% and 62.2%, respectively. The low-and intermediate-risk patients had better DSS than the high-risk patients (P<0.001 and P<0.005, respectively). And there was a trend of better DSS in the low-risk patients, compared with the intermediate-risk patients (P=0.049). The AUC of the model was larger than that of TNM stage (0.726 vs. 0.661, P=0.023). Conclusions A CBC-based prognostic score model was revalidated to be accurate and superior to TNM stage on predicting 5-year DSS of NPC. PMID:27877005

  1. Towards improved prognostic scores predicting survival in patients with brain metastases: a pilot study of serum lactate dehydrogenase levels.

    PubMed

    Nieder, Carsten; Marienhagen, Kirsten; Dalhaug, Astrid; Norum, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Accurate prognostic information is desirable when counselling patients with brain metastases regarding their therapeutic options and life expectancy. Based on previous studies, we selected serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) as a promising factor on which we perform a pilot study investigating methodological aspects of biomarker studies in patients with brain metastases, before embarking on large-scale studies that will look at a larger number of candidate markers in an expanded patient cohort. For this retrospective analysis, 100 patients with available information on LDH treated with palliative whole-brain radiotherapy were selected. A comprehensive evaluation of different LDH-based variables was performed in uni- and multivariate tests. Probably, the most intriguing finding was that LDH kinetics might be more important, or at least complement, information obtained from a single measurement immediately before radiotherapy. LDH and performance status outperformed several other variables that are part of prognostic models such as recursive partitioning analyses classes and graded prognostic assessment score. LDH kinetics might reflect disease behaviour in extracranial metastatic and primary sites without need for comprehensive imaging studies and is a quite inexpensive diagnostic test. Based on these encouraging results, confirmatory studies in a larger cohort of patients are warranted.

  2. Association between pretreatment Glasgow prognostic score and gastric cancer survival and clinicopathological features: a meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Chun-Xiao; Wang, Shu-Yi; Chen, Shuang-Qian; Yang, Shuai-Long; Wan, Lu; Xiong, Bin

    2016-01-01

    Background Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) is widely known as a systemic inflammatory-based marker. The relationship between pretreatment GPS and gastric cancer (GC) survival and clinicopathological features remains controversial. The aim of the study was to conduct a meta-analysis of published studies to evaluate the association between pretreatment GPS and survival and clinicopathological features in GC patients. Methods We searched PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, and BioMed databases for relevant studies. Combined analyses were used to assess the association between pretreatment GPS and overall survival, disease-free survival, and clinicopathological parameters by Stata Version 12.0. Results A total of 14 studies were included in this meta-analysis, including 5,579 GC patients. The results indicated that pretreatment high GPS (HGPS) predicted poor overall survival (hazard ratio =1.51, 95% CI: 1.37–1.66, P<0.01) and disease-free survival (hazard ratio =1.45, 95% CI: 1.26–1.68, P<0.01) in GC patients. Pretreatment HGPS was also significantly associated with advanced tumor–node–metastasis stage (odds ratio [OR] =3.09, 95% CI: 2.11–4.53, P<0.01), lymph node metastasis (OR =4.60, 95% CI: 3.23–6.56, P<0.01), lymphatic invasion (OR =3.04, 95% CI: 2.00–4.62, P<0.01), and venous invasion (OR =3.56, 95% CI: 1.81–6.99, P<0.01). Conclusion Our meta-analysis indicated that pretreatment HGPS could be a predicative factor of poor survival outcome and clinicopathological features for GC patients. PMID:27390529

  3. Intelligent approach to prognostic enhancements of diagnostic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vachtsevanos, George; Wang, Peng; Khiripet, Noppadon; Thakker, Ash; Galie, Thomas R.

    2001-07-01

    This paper introduces a novel methodology to prognostics based on a dynamic wavelet neural network construct and notions from the virtual sensor area. This research has been motivated and supported by the U.S. Navy's active interest in integrating advanced diagnostic and prognostic algorithms in existing Naval digital control and monitoring systems. A rudimentary diagnostic platform is assumed to be available providing timely information about incipient or impending failure conditions. We focus on the development of a prognostic algorithm capable of predicting accurately and reliably the remaining useful lifetime of a failing machine or component. The prognostic module consists of a virtual sensor and a dynamic wavelet neural network as the predictor. The virtual sensor employs process data to map real measurements into difficult to monitor fault quantities. The prognosticator uses a dynamic wavelet neural network as a nonlinear predictor. Means to manage uncertainty and performance metrics are suggested for comparison purposes. An interface to an available shipboard Integrated Condition Assessment System is described and applications to shipboard equipment are discussed. Typical results from pump failures are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the methodology.

  4. FEEDBACK SCORING SYSTEMS FOR REUSABLE KINDERGARTEN WORKBOOKS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    GACH, PENELOPE J.; AND OTHERS

    THE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMICAL FEEDBACK SCORING SYSTEMS FOR REUSABLE KINDERGARTEN WORKBOOKS IS DESCRIBED. THREE PROTOTYPE SYSTEMS WERE DEVELOPED--(1) A METAL FOIL ACTIVATING AN ELECTRICAL PROBE, (2) A METAL FOIL REACTING WITH A MAGNETIC PROBE, AND (3) INVISIBLE FLUORESCENT INK REVEALED BY THE APPLICATION OF LONGWAVE ULTRAVIOLET LIGHT. (MS)

  5. Evolution of the COPD Assessment Test score during chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations: Determinants and prognostic value

    PubMed Central

    Feliz-Rodriguez, Darwin; Zudaire, Santiago; Carpio, Carlos; Martínez, Elizabet; Gómez-Mendieta, Antonia; Santiago, Ana; Alvarez-Sala, Rodolfo; García-Río, Francisco

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: An adequate evaluation of exacerbations is a primary objective in managing patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). OBJECTIVES: To define the profile of health status recovery during severe exacerbations of COPD using the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) questionnaire and to evaluate its prognostic value. METHODS: Forty-five patients with previous COPD diagnoses who were hospitalized due to severe exacerbation(s) were included in the study. These patients were treated by their respective physicians following current recommendations; health status was assessed daily using the CAT questionnaire. The CAT score, spirometry and recurrent hospitalizations were recorded one and three months after hospital discharge. RESULTS: Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage was an independent determinant for increased CAT score during the first days of exacerbation with respect to postexacerbation values. From hospitalization day 5, the CAT score was similar to that obtained in the stable phase. Body mass index, GOLD stage and education level were related to health status recovery pattern. CAT score increase and the area under the curve of CAT recovery were inversely related to the forced expiratory volume in 1 s achieved three months after discharge (r= −0.606; P<0.001 and r= −0.532; P<0.001, respectively). Patients with recurrent hospitalizations showed higher CAT score increases and slower recovery. CONCLUSIONS: The CAT detects early health status improvement during severe COPD exacerbations. Its initial worsening and recovery pattern are related to lung function and recurrent hospitalizations. PMID:24093119

  6. A new molecular prognostic score for predicting the risk of distant metastasis in patients with HR+/HER2− early breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Gong, Gyungyub; Kwon, Mi Jeong; Han, Jinil; Lee, Hee Jin; Lee, Se Kyung; Lee, Jeong Eon; Lee, Seon-Heui; Park, Sarah; Choi, Jong-Sun; Cho, Soo Youn; Ahn, Sei Hyun; Lee, Jong Won; Cho, Sang Rae; Moon, Youngho; Nam, Byung-Ho; Nam, Seok Jin; Choi, Yoon-La; Shin, Young Kee

    2017-01-01

    To make an optimal treatment decision for early stage breast cancer, it is important to identify risk of recurrence. Here, we developed and validated a new prognostic model for predicting the risk of distant metastasis in patients with pN0-N1, hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative (HR+/HER2−) breast cancer treated with hormone therapy alone. RNA was extracted from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor tissues and gene expression was measured by quantitative real-time reverse transcription-PCR. The relative expression of six novel prognostic genes was combined with two clinical variables (nodal status and tumor size) to calculate a risk score (BCT score). In the validation cohort treated with hormone therapy alone, the 10 year rate of distant metastasis in the high-risk group (26.3%) according to BCT score was significantly higher than that in the low-risk group (3.8%) (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis adjusted for clinical variables revealed that BCT score is an independent predictor of distant metastasis. Moreover, the C-index estimate revealed that BCT score has a prognostic power superior to that of prognostic models based on clinicopathological parameters. The BCT score outperforms prognostic models based on traditional clinicopathological factors and predicts the risk of distant metastasis in patients with HR+/HER2− early breast cancer. PMID:28350001

  7. Improving Peptide identification using empirical scoring systems.

    PubMed

    Chalkley, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Peptides and proteins are routinely identified from peptide fragmentation spectra acquired in a mass spectrometer, analyzed by database search engines. The types of fragments that can be formed are known, and it is also well appreciated that certain fragment types are more common or more informative than others. However, most search engines do not use detailed knowledge of peptide fragmentation, but rather consider a limited range of fragments, giving each an equivalent weighting in their scoring system that decides which results are likely to be correct. This chapter discusses efforts to make use of information about the frequency of observation of different fragment ion types in order to produce more sophisticated and sensitive scoring systems and demonstrates how these new scoring systems are particularly powerful for analysis of electron capture or electron transfer dissociation data.

  8. Immunophenotype and intermediate-high international prognostic index score are prognostic factors for therapy in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients.

    PubMed

    Zinzani, Pier Luigi; Broccoli, Alessandro; Stefoni, Vittorio; Musuraca, Gerardo; Abruzzese, Elisabetta; De Renzo, Amalia; Cantonetti, Maria; Bacci, Francesco; Baccarani, Michele; Pileri, Stefano A

    2010-12-15

    The development of gene expression profiling and tissue microarray techniques have provided more information about the heterogeneity of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), enabling categorization of DLBCL patients into 3 prognostic groups according to cell origin (but independently from the International Prognostic Index [IPI] score): germinal center (GCB), activated B-cell (ABC), and not classified (NC) diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. This study investigated the role of immunohistochemical discrimination between GCB and ABC&NC-DLBCL subtypes in identifying those high-risk patients who may benefit from a more aggressive first-line therapeutic approach. From February 2003 to August 2006, 45 newly diagnosed DLBCL patients, with IPI≥2, were considered eligible for this study: 13 had a GCB, 8 an ABC, and 24 a NC-DLBCL. GCB patients received 6 courses of rituximab, cyclophophosphamide, doxorubicin, vinicristine, and prednisone (R-CHOP) chemotherapy, with a subsequent, autologous stem cell transplantation in case of partial response. All ABC and NC-DLBCL patients received 6 R-CHOP cycles and autologous stem cell transplantation. Complete response rate for each treatment arm was 84.6% for GCB and 89.7% for ABC&NC-DLBCL (P = .50), with a continuous complete response rate of 81.8% and 84.6%, respectively (P = .59). Projected 4-year overall survival is 100% for GCB and 82% for ABC&NC patients (P = .12). Progression-free survival is 77% and 79% (P = .7), respectively. The autologous stem cell transplantation consolidation in the ABC&NC-DLBCL subtypes induced the same rate of complete response (and similar progression-free survival rate) compared with GCB-DLBCL. In ABC&NC-DLBCL patients the authors observed a complete response rate of 89.7% vs. 84.6% in the GCB-DLBCL subset, without any significant difference in progression-free survival rate. Copyright © 2010 American Cancer Society.

  9. ATP system target for performance scoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamerler, Timothy; Dowling, James A.; Dillow, Michael A.; Sebesta, Henry R.

    1997-06-01

    The US Air Force Phillips Laboratory is developing the High Altitude Balloon Experiment (HABE) to investigate acquisition, tracking, and pointing concepts to be employed in engagements against boosting missiles in near-space environments. In its most stressing test, HABE employs the Inertial Pseudo Star Reference Unit to provide inertially stabilized line-of-sights (LOSs) for an illuminator laser, active fine track camera, and the marker scoring. The latter serves to measure and score the payload's laser pointing performance. HABE's LOS stabilization subsystem and marker laser pointing are required to demonstrate jitter and drift which is below 1 (mu) rad RMS, a requirement which stresses testing capabilities. At present, a system does not exist to characterize and score the lasers used on this and other experiments at the target plane. This paper will address a concept to provide accurate characterization of laser systems in the far-field target plane.

  10. Prognostics for Ground Support Systems: Case Study on Pneumatic Valves

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai

    2011-01-01

    Prognostics technologies determine the health (or damage) state of a component or sub-system, and make end of life (EOL) and remaining useful life (RUL) predictions. Such information enables system operators to make informed maintenance decisions and streamline operational and mission-level activities. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology for pneumatic valves used in ground support equipment for cryogenic propellant loading operations. These valves are used to control the flow of propellant, so failures may have a significant impact on launch availability. Therefore, correctly predicting when valves will fail enables timely maintenance that avoids launch delays and aborts. The approach utilizes mathematical models describing the underlying physics of valve degradation, and, employing the particle filtering algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation, determines the health state of the valve and the rate of damage progression, from which EOL and RUL predictions are made. We develop a prototype user interface for valve prognostics, and demonstrate the prognostics approach using historical pneumatic valve data from the Space Shuttle refueling system.

  11. Prognostic and predictive implications of Sokal, Euro and EUTOS scores in chronic myeloid leukaemia in the imatinib era-experience from a tertiary oncology centre in Southern India.

    PubMed

    Kuntegowdanahalli, Lakshmaiah Chinnagiriyappa; Kanakasetty, Govind Babu; Thanky, Aditi Harsh; Dasappa, Lokanatha; Jacob, Linu Abraham; Mallekavu, Suresh Babu; Lakkavalli, Rajeev Krishnappa; Kadabur, Lokesh N; Haleshappa, Rudresha Antapura

    2016-01-01

    Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) is a myeloproliferative disorder. Over the years many prognostic models have been developed to better risk stratify this disease at baseline. Sokal, Euro, and EUTOS scores were developed in varied populations initially receiving various therapies. Here we try to identify their predictive and prognostic implication in a larger population of Indian patients with CML-CP (chronic phase) in the imatinib era.

  12. Validation of the prognostic Heidelberg re-irradiation score in an independent mono-institutional patient cohort

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Re-irradiation has been shown to be a valid option with proven efficacy for recurrent high-grade glioma patients. Overall, up to now it is unclear which patients might be optimal candidates for a second course of irradiation. A recently reported prognostic score developed by Combs et al. may guide treatment decisions and thus, our mono-institutional cohort served as validation set to test its relevance for clinical practice. Patients and methods The prognostic score is built upon histology, age (< 50 vs. ≥ 50 years) and the time between initial radiotherapy and re-irradiation (≤ 12 vs. > 12 months). This score was initially introduced to distinguish patients with excellent (0 points), good (1 point), moderate (2 points) and poor (3–4 points) post-recurrence survival (PRS) after re-irradiation. Median prescribed radiation dose during re-treatment of recurrent malignant glioma was 36 Gy in 2 Gy single fractions. A substantial part of the patients was additionally treated with bevacizumab (10 mg/kg intravenously at d1 and d15 during re-irradiation). Results 88 patients (initially 61 WHO IV, 20 WHO III, 7 WHO II) re-irradiated in a single institution were retrospectively analyzed. Median follow-up was 30 months and median PRS of the entire patient cohort 7 months. Seventy-one patients (80.7%) received bevacizumab. PRS was significantly increased in patients receiving bevacizumab (8 vs. 6 months, p = 0.027, log-rank test). KPS, age, MGMT methylation status, sex, WHO grade and the Heidelberg score showed no statistically significant influence on neither PR-PFS nor PRS. Conclusion In our cohort which was mainly treated with bevacizumab the usefulness of the Heidelberg score could not be confirmed probably due to treatment heterogeneity; it can be speculated that larger multicentric data collections are needed to derive a more reliable score. PMID:24893775

  13. Ki-67 in endometrial cancer: scoring optimization and prognostic relevance for window studies

    PubMed Central

    Kitson, Sarah; Sivalingam, Vanitha N; Bolton, James; McVey, Rhona; Nickkho-Amiry, Mashid; Powell, Melanie E; Leary, Alexandra; Nijman, Hans W; Nout, Remi A; Bosse, Tjalling; Renehan, Andrew G; Kitchener, Henry C; Edmondson, Richard J; Crosbie, Emma J

    2017-01-01

    Ki-67, a marker of cellular proliferation, is increasingly being used in pre-surgical window studies in endometrial cancer as a primary outcome measure. Unlike in breast cancer, however, there are no guidelines standardizing its measurement and its clinical relevance as a response biomarker is undetermined. It is, therefore, imperative that Ki-67 scoring protocols are optimized and its association with patient survival rigorously evaluated, in order to be able to clinically interpret the results of these studies. Using the International Ki-67 in Breast Cancer Working Group guidelines as a basis, whole slide, hot spot and invasive edge scoring protocols were evaluated using endometrial biopsies and hysterectomy specimens from 179 women. Whole sections and tissue microarrays, manual and semi-automated scoring using Definiens Developer software were additionally compared. Ki-67 scores were related to clinicopathological variables and cancer-specific survival in uni- and multivariate analysis. Against criteria of time efficiency, intra- and inter-observer variability and consistency, semi-automated hot spot scoring was the preferred method. Ki-67 scores positively correlated with grade, stage and depth of myometrial invasion (P-values all <0.03). By univariate analysis, higher Ki-67 scores were associated with a significant reduction in cancer-specific survival (P≤0.05); however, this effect was substantially attenuated in the multivariate model. In conclusion, hot spot scoring of whole sections using Definiens is an optimal method to quantify Ki-67 in endometrial cancer window study specimens. Measured this way, it is a clinically relevant marker, though further work is required to determine whether reductions in Ki-67 in neoadjuvant intervention studies translate into improved patient outcome. PMID:27910946

  14. Ki-67 in endometrial cancer: scoring optimization and prognostic relevance for window studies.

    PubMed

    Kitson, Sarah; Sivalingam, Vanitha N; Bolton, James; McVey, Rhona; Nickkho-Amiry, Mashid; Powell, Melanie E; Leary, Alexandra; Nijman, Hans W; Nout, Remi A; Bosse, Tjalling; Renehan, Andrew G; Kitchener, Henry C; Edmondson, Richard J; Crosbie, Emma J

    2017-03-01

    Ki-67, a marker of cellular proliferation, is increasingly being used in pre-surgical window studies in endometrial cancer as a primary outcome measure. Unlike in breast cancer, however, there are no guidelines standardizing its measurement and its clinical relevance as a response biomarker is undetermined. It is, therefore, imperative that Ki-67 scoring protocols are optimized and its association with patient survival rigorously evaluated, in order to be able to clinically interpret the results of these studies. Using the International Ki-67 in Breast Cancer Working Group guidelines as a basis, whole slide, hot spot and invasive edge scoring protocols were evaluated using endometrial biopsies and hysterectomy specimens from 179 women. Whole sections and tissue microarrays, manual and semi-automated scoring using Definiens Developer software were additionally compared. Ki-67 scores were related to clinicopathological variables and cancer-specific survival in uni- and multivariate analysis. Against criteria of time efficiency, intra- and inter-observer variability and consistency, semi-automated hot spot scoring was the preferred method. Ki-67 scores positively correlated with grade, stage and depth of myometrial invasion (P-values all <0.03). By univariate analysis, higher Ki-67 scores were associated with a significant reduction in cancer-specific survival (P≤0.05); however, this effect was substantially attenuated in the multivariate model. In conclusion, hot spot scoring of whole sections using Definiens is an optimal method to quantify Ki-67 in endometrial cancer window study specimens. Measured this way, it is a clinically relevant marker, though further work is required to determine whether reductions in Ki-67 in neoadjuvant intervention studies translate into improved patient outcome.

  15. The prognostic role of controlling nutritional status scores in patients with solid tumors.

    PubMed

    Liang, Ruo-Fei; Li, Jun-Hong; Li, Mao; Yang, Yuan; Liu, Yan-Hui

    2017-09-27

    We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the association between preoperative controlling nutritional status (CONUT) scores in various solid tumors and clinical outcomes. Relevant studies published up to August 12, 2017 were identified using electronic databases, including PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. The pooled hazard ratios (HR) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) were calculated to explore the relationship between preoperative CONUT score and prognosis. In total, 674 patients with solid tumors from four published studies were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled HR for OS was 1.98 (95% CI, 1.34-2.91, p=0.001), indicating that patients with high CONUT scores had worse OS. The pooled HR for EFS was 1.98 (95% CI, 1.34-2.93, p=0.001), revealing that high CONUT scores were significantly associated with short EFS. Our data suggest that high preoperative CONUT scores indicate poor prognosis for patients with solid tumors. Further studies are needed to verify the significance of CONUT scores in clinical practice. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Prognostic index score and clinical prediction model of local regional recurrence after mastectomy in breast cancer patients

    SciTech Connect

    Cheng, Skye Hongiun . E-mail: skye@mail.kfcc.org.tw; Horng, C.-F.; Clarke, Jennifer L.; Tsou, M.-H.; Tsai, Stella Y.; Chen, C.-M.; Jian, James J.; Liu, M.-C.; West, Mike; Huang, Andrew T.; Prosnitz, Leonard R.

    2006-04-01

    Purpose: To develop clinical prediction models for local regional recurrence (Lr) of breast carcinoma after mastectomy that will be superior to the conventional measures of tumor size and nodal status. Methods and Materials: Clinical information from 1,010 invasive breast cancer patients who had primary modified radical mastectomy formed the database of the training and testing of clinical prognostic and prediction models of LRR. Cox proportional hazards analysis and Bayesian tree analysis were the core methodologies from which these models were built. To generate a prognostic index model, 15 clinical variables were examined for their impact on LRR. Patients were stratified by lymph node involvement (<4 vs. {>=}4) and local regional status (recurrent vs. control) and then, within strata, randomly split into training and test data sets of equal size. To establish prediction tree models, 255 patients were selected by the criteria of having had LRR (53 patients) or no evidence of LRR without postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) (202 patients). Results: With these models, patients can be divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups on the basis of axillary nodal status, estrogen receptor status, lymphovascular invasion, and age at diagnosis. In the low-risk group, there is no influence of PMRT on either LRR or survival. For intermediate-risk patients, PMRT improves LR control but not metastases-free or overall survival. For the high-risk patients, however, PMRT improves both LR control and metastasis-free and overall survival. Conclusion: The prognostic score and predictive index are useful methods to estimate the risk of LRR in breast cancer patients after mastectomy and for estimating the potential benefits of PMRT. These models provide additional information criteria for selection of patients for PMRT, compared with the traditional selection criteria of nodal status and tumor size.

  17. Prognostic value of quality of life score in disease-free survivors of surgically-treated lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Yun, Young Ho; Kim, Young Ae; Sim, Jin Ah; Shin, Ae Sun; Chang, Yoon Jung; Lee, Jongmog; Kim, Moon Soo; Shim, Young Mog; Zo, Jae Lll

    2016-07-20

    We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of quality of life (QOL) for predicting survival among disease-free survivors of surgically-treated lung cancer after the completion of cancer treatment. We administered the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30), the Quality of Life Questionnaire Lung Cancer Module (QLQ-LC13), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and Posttraumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI) to 809 survivors who were surgically-treated for lung cancer at two hospitals from 2001 through 2006. We gathered mortality data by linkage to the National Statistical Office through December 2011. We used Cox proportional hazard models to compute adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) to estimate the relationship between QOL and survival. Analyses of QOL items adjusted for age, sex, stage, body mass index, and physical activity showed that scores for poor physical functioning, dyspnea, anorexia, diarrhea, cough, personal strength, anxiety, and depression were associated with poor survival. With adjustment for the independent indicators of survival, final multiple proportional hazard regression analyses of QOL show that physical functioning (aHR, 2.39; 95 % CI, 1.13-5.07), dyspnea (aHR, 1.56; 95 % CI, 1.01-2.40), personal strength (aHR, 2.36; 95 % CI, 1.31-4.27), and anxiety (aHR, 2.13; 95 % CI, 1.38-3.30) retained their independent prognostic power of survival. This study suggests that patient-reported QOL outcomes in disease-free survivors of surgically-treated lung cancer after the completion of active treatment has independent prognostic value for long-term survival.

  18. [Proposed scoring system for biomedical scientific publications].

    PubMed

    Figueredo, E

    2007-02-01

    There are no bibliometric formulas currently available to measure the intrinsic quality of scientific publications. Nonetheless, publication assessment is an inescapable feature of academic and professional evaluation although it is not always done fairly. This paper proposes a scoring system that combines several of the variables most often used for evaluation: article length, inclusion in biomedical databases, impact factor of the journals publishing the articles, and number of citations received during the 2 years following publication. Articles can be classified in 20 categories and assigned scores depending on how the factors are combined. The scoring system's advantage is that it limits excessive weight given to extreme impact factors and corrects differences due to varying citing behaviors in different Science Citation Index categories. Finally, scores are classified by type of article, number of co-authors, and arthorship order. When applying this system, it would be sufficient to evaluate candidates' 5 best articles in order to establish quantitative differences between them, reducing administrative costs and the workloads of assessment committees.

  19. An evaluation of intelligent prognostic systems for colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Anand, S S; Smith, A E; Hamilton, P W; Anand, J S; Hughes, J G; Bartels, P H

    1999-02-01

    In this paper we describe attempts at building a robust model for predicting the length of survival of patients with colorectal cancer. The aim of the research, reported in this paper, is to study the effective utilisation of artificial intelligence techniques in the medical domain. We suggest that an important research objective of proponents of intelligent prognostic systems must be to evaluate the additionality that AI techniques can bring to an already well-established field of medical prognosis. Towards this end, we compare a number of different AI techniques that lend themselves to the task of predicting survival in colorectal cancer patients. We describe the pros and cons of each of these methods using the usual metrics of accuracy and perspicuity. We then present the notion of intelligent hybrid systems and evaluate the role that they may potentially play in developing robust prognostic models. In particular we evaluate a hybrid system that utilises the k Nearest Neighbour technique in conjunction with Genetic Algorithms. We describe a number of innovations used within this hybrid paradigm used to build the prognostic model. We discuss the issue of censored patients and how this issue can be tackled within the various models used. In keeping with our objective of studying the additionality that AI techniques bring to building prognostic models, we use Cox's regression as a standard and compare each AI technique with it, attempting to discover their capabilities in enhancing prognostic methods in medicine. In doing so we address two main questions--which model fits the data best?, and are the results obtained by the various AI techniques significantly different from those of Cox's regression? We conclude this paper by discussing future enhancements to the work presented and lessons learned from the study to date.

  20. Additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    PubMed

    Brkovic, Voin; Dobric, Milan; Beleslin, Branko; Giga, Vojislav; Vukcevic, Vladan; Stojkovic, Sinisa; Stankovic, Goran; Nedeljkovic, Milan A; Orlic, Dejan; Tomasevic, Miloje; Stepanovic, Jelena; Ostojic, Miodrag

    2013-08-01

    This study evaluated additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). All six scores were calculated in 209 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing pPCI. Primary end-point was the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE--composite of cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke); secondary end point was cardiovascular mortality. Patients were stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles (≤12; between 12 and 19.5; >19.5). The median follow-up was 20 months. Rates of MACE and cardiovascular mortality were highest in the upper tertile of the SYNTAX score (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003, respectively). SYNTAX score was independent multivariable predictor of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, and PAMI risk scores. However, the SYNTAX score did not improve the Cox regression models of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to the CADILLAC score. The SYNTAX score has predictive value for MACE and cardiovascular mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI. Furthermore, SYNTAX score improves prognostic performance of well-established GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE and PAMI clinical scores, but not the CADILLAC risk score. Therefore, long-term survival in patients after STEMI depends less on detailed angiographical characterization of coronary lesions, but more on clinical characteristics, myocardial function and basic angiographic findings as provided by the CADILLAC score.

  1. Reliability of a spinal metastasis prognostic score to model 1-year survival.

    PubMed

    Goodwin, C Rory; Schoenfeld, Andrew J; Abu-Bonsrah, Nancy A; Garzon-Muvdi, Tomas; Sankey, Eric W; Harris, Mitchel B; Sciubba, Daniel M

    2016-09-01

    Predicting survival after surgery for patients with metastatic spine disease can be challenging, with multiple variables that can influence a patient's overall survival. Predictive models have been developed to assist clinicians in providing a prognosis for patients. Recently, Ghori et al. reported a composite model taking into account a modified Bauer score, preoperative albumin, and ambulatory status of patients with spinal metastasis. Using an independent cohort, we sought to assess the reliability and validity of this composite model to predict 1-year survival in patients diagnosed with metastatic cancer to the spine. This study aimed to assess the reliability and validity of the Ghori et al. composite model to predict 1-year survival in patients diagnosed with metastatic cancer to the spine, using an independent cohort. A retrospective study was carried out. The sample comprised 161 patients with spinal metastasis undergoing surgery. Patients' modified Bauer score, preoperative albumin, and ambulatory status were assessed. This study used a retrospective analysis of 161 patients with spinal metastasis who underwent surgical management from 2007 to 2013. The ability of this composite model to predict 1-year survival was compared with actual patient survival using multivariable logistic regression to control for confounders, as well as post-regression diagnostics. Our analysis revealed significantly lower 1-year mortality among patients with higher composite scores as compared with those with lower scores. Strong associations between scores and survival were appreciated in unadjusted analysis. The final model was able to account for 80% of the variation in the 1-year survival, and there was no evidence of lack of fit. This study demonstrates, in an independent cohort of spinal metastases patients, that a composite model taking into account the ambulatory status, serum albumin, and modified Bauer score is able to better predict postoperative survival. These

  2. Margin Status is Still an Important Prognostic Factor in Hepatectomies for Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis.

    PubMed

    Memeo, Riccardo; de Blasi, Vito; Adam, Rene; Goéré, Diane; Piardi, Tullio; Lermite, Emilie; Turrini, Olivier; Navarro, Francis; de'Angelis, Nicola; Cunha, Antonio Sa; Pessaux, Patrick

    2017-09-19

    The width of resection margin is still a matter of debate in case of colorectal liver metastasis resection. The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for R1 resection. Once risk factors had been identified, patients were matched according to Fong's prognostic criteria, in order to evaluate whether R1 resection still remained a negative prognostic factor impacting overall and disease-free survival. A total of 1784 hepatectomies were analyzed from a multicentric retrospective cohort of hepatectomies. Patients were compared before and after a 1:1 propensity score analysis in order to compare R0 versus R1 resections according to Fong criteria. Primary tumor nodes found positive after colorectal resection (RR = 1.20, p = 0.02), operative time (> 240 min) (RR = 1.26, p = 0.05), synchronous liver metastasis (RR = 1.27, p = 0.02), pedicle clamping (> 40 min) (RR = 1.52, p = 0.001), lesion size larger than 50 mm (RR = 1.54, p = 0.001), rehepatectomy (RR = 1.68, p = 0.001), more than 3 lesions (RR = 1.69, p = 0.0001), and bilateral lesions (RR = 1.74, p = 0.0001) were identified as risk factors in multivariate analysis. After a 1:1 PSM according to Fong criteria, R1 resection still remained a negative prognostic factor impacting overall and disease-free survival, with 1-, 3-, 5-year OS at 94, 81, and 70% in R0 and 92, 75, and 58% in R1, respectively, (p = 0.008), and disease-free survival (DFS) with 1-, 3-, 5-year survival at 64, 41, and 28% in R0 versus 51, 28, and 18% in R1 (p = 0.0002), respectively. Even after using PSM as an oncological prognostic criterion, R1 resection still impacts overall and disease-free survival negatively.

  3. Prognostic nutritional index as a prognostic biomarker for survival in digestive system carcinomas.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yang; Xu, Peng; Kang, Huafeng; Lin, Shuai; Wang, Meng; Yang, Pengtao; Dai, Cong; Liu, Xinghan; Liu, Kang; Zheng, Yi; Dai, Zhijun

    2016-12-27

    The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) has been reported to correlate with the prognosis in patients with various malignancies. We performed a meta-analysis to determine the predictive potential of PNI in digestive system cancers. Twenty-three studies with a total of 7,384 patients suffering from digestive system carcinomas were involved in this meta-analysis. A lower PNI was significantly associated with the shorter overall survival (OS) [Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.83, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.62-2.07], the poorer disease-free survival (DFS) (HR 1.85, 95% CI 1.19-2.89), and the higher rate of post-operative complications (HR 2.31, 95% CI 1.63-3.28). In conclusion, PNI was allowed to function as an efficient indicator for the prognosis of patients with digestive system carcinomas.

  4. Prognostic nutritional index as a prognostic biomarker for survival in digestive system carcinomas

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Yang; Xu, Peng; Kang, Huafeng; Lin, Shuai; Wang, Meng; Yang, Pengtao; Dai, Cong; Liu, Xinghan; Liu, Kang; Zheng, Yi; Dai, Zhijun

    2016-01-01

    The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) has been reported to correlate with the prognosis in patients with various malignancies. We performed a meta-analysis to determine the predictive potential of PNI in digestive system cancers. Twenty-three studies with a total of 7,384 patients suffering from digestive system carcinomas were involved in this meta-analysis. A lower PNI was significantly associated with the shorter overall survival (OS) [Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.83, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.62–2.07], the poorer disease-free survival (DFS) (HR 1.85, 95% CI 1.19–2.89), and the higher rate of post-operative complications (HR 2.31, 95% CI 1.63–3.28). In conclusion, PNI was allowed to function as an efficient indicator for the prognosis of patients with digestive system carcinomas. PMID:27888808

  5. Predictive Significance of a New Prognostic Score for Patients With Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma in the Interim-Positron Emission Tomography Findings.

    PubMed

    Kong, Yu; Qu, Lili; Li, Yuekai; Liu, Dai; Lv, Xuemin; Han, Jiankui

    2016-02-01

    We hypothesized that the objective treatment response of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) was affected by many factors such as pathophysiological, biological, and pharmaceutical mechanisms. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the predictive significance of clinical prognostic factors and interim fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose (F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT), and to find a new prognostic predictor significantly associated with DLBCL patients' outcome. A total of 105 adult patients with DLBCL were reviewed. Each patient underwent an interim F-FDG PET/CT scan after the second chemotherapy cycle. The visual method based on the Deauville 5-point scale was used to evaluate the interim-PET/CT scans. The relationships among the prognostic factors, the 3-year progression-free survival (PFS) rate and overall survival (OS) rate were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier plots. The predictive value of the newly constructed prognostic score was analyzed with multivariate analysis (Cox proportional hazard regression model). The visual analysis showed statistically significant differences in both PFS and OS between the patients with a negative interim-PET/CT and those with a positive interim-PET/CT. Advanced age, advanced stage, and DLBCL subtype were also significantly associated with outcome. A new prognostic score that composed of the above 4 factors was obtained. New prognostic score stratified patients into 4 risk groups with 3-year PFS of 98.5%, 73.9%, 11.1%, and 0%, and 3-year OS of 100%, 91.3%, 55.6%, and 0% (P < 0.001 for PFS and OS). Multivariate analysis showed that the new prognostic score had the greatest ability to predict relapse (P < 0.001) and death (P < 0.001). In DLBCL patients, interim F-FDG PET/CT can provide significant independent prognostic information. Our work illustrates that the new prognostic score has the strongest potential for accurately prognostication, for stratification in clinical

  6. Prognostic Utility of Calcium Scoring as an Adjunct to Stress Myocardial Perfusion Scintigraphy in End-Stage Renal Disease.

    PubMed

    Moody, William E; Lin, Erica L S; Stoodley, Matthew; McNulty, David; Thomson, Louise E; Berman, Daniel S; Edwards, Nicola C; Holloway, Benjamin; Ferro, Charles J; Townend, Jonathan N; Steeds, Richard P

    2016-05-01

    Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) is a strong predictor of adverse cardiovascular events in the general population. Recent data confirm the prognostic utility of single-photon emission computed tomographic (SPECT) imaging in end-stage renal disease, but whether performing CACS as part of hybrid imaging improves risk prediction in this population is unclear. Consecutive patients (n = 284) were identified after referral to a university hospital for cardiovascular risk stratification in assessment for renal transplantation. Participants underwent technetium-99m SPECT imaging after exercise or standard adenosine stress in those unable to achieve 85% maximal heart rate; multislice CACS was also performed (Siemens Symbia T16, Siemens, Erlangen, Germany). Subjects with known coronary artery disease (n = 88) and those who underwent early revascularization (n = 2) were excluded. The primary outcome was a composite of death or first myocardial infarction. An abnormal SPECT perfusion result was seen in 22% (43 of 194) of subjects, whereas 45% (87 of 194) had at least moderate CACS (>100 U). The frequency of abnormal perfusion (summed stress score ≥4) increased with increasing CACS severity (p = 0.049). There were a total of 15 events (8 deaths, and 7 myocardial infarctions) after a median duration of 18 months (maximum follow-up 3.4 years). Univariate analysis showed diabetes mellitus (Hazard ratio [HR] 3.30, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.54; p = 0.028), abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 5.32, 95% CI 1.84 to 15.35; p = 0.002), and moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.11 to 11.35; p = 0.032) were all associated with the primary outcome. In a multivariate model, abnormal perfusion on SPECT (HR 4.18, 95% CI 1.43 to 12.27; p = 0.009), but not moderate-to-severe CACS (HR 2.50, 95% CI 0.76 to 8.20; p = 0.130), independently predicted all-cause death or myocardial infarction. The prognostic value of CACS was not incremental to clinical and SPECT perfusion data (global chi-square change

  7. The prognostic ability of early Braden Q Scores in critically ill children.

    PubMed

    Tume, Lyvonne N; Siner, Sarah; Scott, Elaine; Lane, Steven

    2014-03-01

    Pressure ulcer (PU) risk assessment tools are an important component of good nursing care; however, it is essential that these tools offer a good sensitivity and specificity, in addition to clinical utility in the population being assessed. The aim of this study was to examine how the lowest Braden Q score recorded in the first 24 h of paediatric intensive care unit admission related to the risk of PU development in an English PICU (paediatric intensive care unit). A retrospective cohort study was undertaken over 12 months in a single PICU in the North West of England. 891 critically ill children with a Braden Q score were evaluated. The lowest Braden Q score within the first 24 h of PICU admission was matched to reported PU development and grade. The Braden Q score was found to perform well in children aged 3 weeks to 8 years without congenital heart disease (CHD), which is the population it was validated on. At a cut off score of ≤16 it yielded a sensitivity of 100% specificity of 73.1%, positive predictive value (PPV) 2.56 and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100 and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.87(0.75-0.98). When used in other age groups and when it included children with CHD, it performed less well with lower AUC and wider confidence intervals, but it performed moderately well in the group of term to 14 years with a sensitivity of 75% specificity of 72.6%, PPV 1.5 and a NPV of 99.8 and AUC of 0.74 (0.49-0.98). Our results in a heterogeneous UK PICU population found the Braden Q score performed well in the specific population it was validated for (PICU children aged 3 weeks to 8 years without CHD), however, it performed moderately well in the more heterogonous PICU population of term to 14 years including children with CHD. © 2013 British Association of Critical Care Nurses.

  8. Prognostic value of NT-proBNP and an adapted monin score in patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis.

    PubMed

    Farré, Núria; Gómez, Miquel; Molina, Luis; Cladellas, Mercedes; Blé, Mireia; Roqueta, Cristina; Ascoeta, Maria Soledad; Comin-Colet, Josep; Vila, Joan; Bruguera, Jordi

    2014-01-01

    Our objective was to assess the prognostic value of NT-proBNP in patients with asymptomatic moderate/severe aortic stenosis and to validate an adapted Monin score using natriuretic peptide levels in our setting. Prospective study of 237 patients with degenerative asymptomatic moderate/severe aortic stenosis. NT-proBNP was determined in all patients, who were then followed up clinically. The adapted Monin score was defined as follows: (peak velocity [m/s]×2)+(logn NT-proBNP×1.5)(+1.5 if woman). A clinical event was defined as surgery, hospital admission due to angina, heart failure or syncope, or death. A total of 51% were women, and the mean age was 74 years. Mean (SD) echocardiographic values were as follows: peak velocity 4.14 (0.87) m/s; mean gradient, 43.2 (16.0) mmHg; aortic valve area, 0.87 (0.72) cm(2), and aortic valve area index, 0.49 (0.14) cm(2)/m(2). The median NT-pro-BNP value was 490.0 [198.0-1312.0] pg/mL. There were 153 events during follow-up (median 18 months). The optimum NT-proBNP cut-point was 515 pg/mL, giving event-free survival rates at 1 and 2 years of 93% and 57%, respectively, in patients with NT-proBNP <515 pg/mL compared with 50% and 31% in those with NT-proBNP >515 pg/mL. Patients were divided into quartiles based on the Monin score. Event-free survival at 1 and 2 years was 87% and 79% in the first quartile, compared with 45% and 28% in the fourth quartile, respectively. NT-proBNP determination provides prognostic information in patients with asymptomatic moderate/severe aortic stenosis. The adapted Monin score is useful in our setting and allows a more precise prognosis than does the use of NT-proBNP alone. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  9. Low Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) Predicts Unfavorable Distant Metastasis-Free Survival in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Shaodong; Chen, Haiyang; Liang, Shaobo; Peng, Peijian; Chen, Yong

    2016-01-01

    Background Poor nutritional status is associated with progression and advanced disease in patients with cancer. The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) may represent a simple method of assessing host immunonutritional status. This study was designed to investigate the prognostic value of the PNI for distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods A training cohort of 1,168 patients with non-metastatic NPC from two institutions was retrospectively analyzed. The optimal PNI cutoff value for DMFS was identified using the online tool “Cutoff Finder”. DMFS was analyzed using stratified and adjusted analysis. Propensity score-matched analysis was performed to balance baseline characteristics between the high and low PNI groups. Subsequently, the prognostic value of the PNI for DMFS was validated in an external validation cohort of 756 patients with NPC. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was calculated to compare the discriminatory ability of different prognostic scores. Results The optimal PNI cutoff value was determined to be 51. Low PNI was significantly associated with poorer DMFS than high PNI in univariate analysis (P<0.001) as well as multivariate analysis (P<0.001) before propensity score matching. In subgroup analyses, PNI could also stratify different risks of distant metastases. Propensity score-matched analyses confirmed the prognostic value of PNI, excluding other interpretations and selection bias. In the external validation cohort, patients with high PNI also had significantly lower risk of distant metastases than those with low PNI (Hazards Ratios, 0.487; P<0.001). The PNI consistently showed a higher AUC value at 1-year (0.780), 3-year (0.793) and 5-year (0.812) in comparison with other prognostic scores. Conclusion PNI, an inexpensive and easily assessable inflammatory index, could aid clinicians in developing individualized treatment and follow-up strategies for patients

  10. A Distributed Approach to System-Level Prognostics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-01

    system state estimate, computes EOL and/or RUL. In this paper, we focus on a model-based prognostics approach ( Orchard & Vachtse- vanos, 2009; Daigle...been focused on individual components, and determining their EOL and RUL, e.g., ( Orchard & Vachtsevanos, 2009; Saha & Goebel, 2009; Daigle & Goebel...have been developed to tune this value online to maximize performance, e.g., (Liu & West, 2001; Orchard , Tobar, & Vachtsevanos, 2009; Daigle, Saha

  11. A prognostic score to identify low-risk outpatients with acute deep vein thrombosis in the lower limbs.

    PubMed

    Trujillo-Santos, Javier; Lozano, Francisco; Lorente, Manuel Alejandro; Adarraga, Dolores; Hirmerova, Jana; Del Toro, Jorge; Mazzolai, Lucia; Barillari, Giovanni; Barrón, Manuel; Monreal, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    No prior studies have identified which patients with deep vein thrombosis in the lower limbs are at a low risk for adverse events within the first week of therapy. We used data from the Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica (RIETE) to identify patients at low risk for the composite outcome of pulmonary embolism, major bleeding, or death within the first week. We built a prognostic score and compared it with the decision to treat patients at home. As of December 2013, 15,280 outpatients with deep vein thrombosis had been enrolled. Overall, 5164 patients (34%) were treated at home. Of these, 12 (0.23%) had pulmonary embolism, 8 (0.15%) bled, and 4 (0.08%) died. On multivariable analysis, chronic heart failure, recent immobility, recent bleeding, cancer, renal insufficiency, and abnormal platelet count independently predicted the risk for the composite outcome. Among 11,430 patients (75%) considered to be at low risk, 15 (0.13%) suffered pulmonary embolism, 22 (0.19%) bled, and 8 (0.07%) died. The C-statistic was 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.65) for the decision to treat patients at home and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.79) for the score (P = .003). Net reclassification improvement was 41% (P < .001). Integrated discrimination improvement was 0.034 for the score and 0.015 for the clinical decision (P < .001). Using 6 easily available variables, we identified outpatients with deep vein thrombosis at low risk for adverse events within the first week. These data may help to safely treat more patients at home. This score, however, should be validated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. The evolution and clinical relevance of prognostic classification systems in myelofibrosis.

    PubMed

    Bose, Prithviraj; Verstovsek, Srdan

    2016-03-01

    Primary myelofibrosis, the most aggressive of the classic Philadelphia chromosome-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs), is a clonal disorder characterized by often debilitating constitutional symptoms and splenomegaly, bone marrow fibrosis and resultant cytopenias, extramedullary hematopoiesis, risk of leukemic transformation, and shortened survival. Post-polycythemia vera and post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis represent similar entities, although some differences are being recognized. Attempts to classify patients with myelofibrosis into prognostic categories have been made since the late 1980s, and these scoring systems continue to evolve as new information becomes available. Over the last decade, the molecular pathogenesis of MPNs has been elucidated considerably, and the Janus kinase (JAK) 1/2 inhibitor ruxolitinib is the first drug specifically approved by the US Food and Drug Administration to treat patients with intermediate-risk and high-risk myelofibrosis. This article reviews the evolution of prognostic criteria in myelofibrosis, emphasizing the major systems widely in use today, as well as recently described, novel systems that incorporate emerging data regarding somatic mutations. Risk factors for thrombosis and conversion to MPN blast phase also are discussed. Finally, the practical usefulness of the current prognostic classification systems in terms of clinical decision making is discussed, particularly within the context of some of their inherent weaknesses. Cancer 2016;122:681-692. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

  13. Coronary artery calcium scoring does not add prognostic value to standard 64-section CT angiography protocol in low-risk patients suspected of having coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    Kwon, Sung Woo; Kim, Young Jin; Shim, Jaemin; Sung, Ji Min; Han, Mi Eun; Kang, Dong Won; Kim, Ji-Ye; Choi, Byoung Wook; Chang, Hyuk-Jae

    2011-04-01

    To evaluate the prognostic outcome of cardiac computed tomography (CT) for prediction of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in low-risk patients suspected of having coronary artery disease (CAD) and to explore the differential prognostic values of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring and coronary CT angiography. Institutional review committee approval and informed consent were obtained. In 4338 patients who underwent 64-section CT for evaluation of suspected CAD, both CAC scoring and CT angiography were concurrently performed by using standard scanning protocols. Follow-up clinical outcome data regarding composite MACEs were procured. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict MACEs. Risk-adjusted models incorporated traditional risk factors for CAC scoring and coronary CT angiography. During the mean follow-up of 828 days ± 380, there were 105 MACEs, for an event rate of 3%. The presence of obstructive CAD at coronary CT angiography had independent prognostic value, which escalated according to the number of stenosed vessels (P < .001). In the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, the superiority of coronary CT angiography to CAC scoring was demonstrated by a significantly greater area under the ROC curve (AUC) (0.892 vs 0.810, P < .001), whereas no significant incremental value for the addition of CAC scoring to coronary CT angiography was established (AUC = 0.892 for coronary CT angiography alone vs 0.902 with addition of CAC scoring, P = .198). Coronary CT angiography is better than CAC scoring in predicting MACEs in low-risk patients suspected of having CAD. Furthermore, the current standard multisection CT protocol (coronary CT angiography combined with CAC scoring) has no incremental prognostic value compared with coronary CT angiography alone. Therefore, in terms of determining prognosis, CAC scoring may no longer need to be incorporated in the cardiac CT protocol in this population. © RSNA, 2011.

  14. Consistency Test between Scoring Systems for Predicting Outcomes of Chronic Myeloid Leukemia in a Saudi Population Treated with Imatinib

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Inconsistency in prognostic scores occurs where two different risk categories are applied to the same chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patient. This study evaluated common scoring systems for identifying risk groups based on patients' molecular responses to select the best prognostic score when conflict prognoses are obtained from patient profiles. We analyzed 104 patients diagnosed with CML and treated at King Abdulaziz Medical City, Saudi Arabia, who were monitored for major molecular response (achieving a BCR-ABL1 transcript level equal to or less than 0.1%) by Real-Time Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (RQ-PCR), and their risk profiles were identified using Sokal, Hasford, EUTOS, and ELTS scores based on the patients' clinical and hematological parameters at diagnosis. Our results found that the Hasford score outperformed other scores in identifying risk categories for conflict groups, with an accuracy of 63%. PMID:28286862

  15. Prognostic value of Angiographic Perfusion Score (APS) following percutaneous interventions in acute coronary syndromes.

    PubMed

    Narain, V S; Fischer, L; Puri, A; Sethi, R; Dwivedi, S K

    2013-01-01

    Identifying reperfusion and predicting post procedure risk is important following Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCI). An Angiographic Perfusion Score (APS) combining TIMI flow (TFG) and myocardial perfusion (TMPG) grades before and after PCI can accurately measure both epicardial and myocardial perfusion and predict Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE). APS was calculated in 226 (88 ST elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) and 138 Non STEMI) patients. Maximum score being 12, reperfusion was defined as failed: 0-3, partial: 4-9, and full APS: 10-12. Thirty day MACE were observed. APS identified reperfusion significantly more than TMPG alone (STEMI: 50.6% vs 11.8% (p < 0.001); Non STEMI, early reperfusion: 69.4% vs 52.8% (p < 0.01) and Non STEMI late reperfusion: 38.2% vs 7.8%; (p ≤ 0.001) respectively. A significantly lower incidence of MACE was observed in the full as compared to the failed APS group (1.8% vs 22.5%) (p < 0.001). No differences were noted between TMPG 0-2 (9.8%, 9.4%, 7.3%, respectively) (p = NS). Compared to MPG alone APS detects more low risk reperfused patients, post PCI. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Prognostic Value of Coronary Artery Calcium Score for Determination of Presence and Severity of Coronary Artery Disease

    PubMed Central

    Moradi, Maryam; Nouri, Shadi; Nourozi, Ali; Golbidi, Danial

    2017-01-01

    Summary Background There are controversies regarding the usefulness of coronary artery calcium score (CACS) for predicting coronary artery stenosis. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of CACS for determining the presence and severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with sign and symptoms of the disease. Material/Methods In this cross-sectional study, 748 consecutive patients with suspected CAD, referred for coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), were enrolled. The mean CACS was compared between patients with different severities of coronary artery stenosis. The association between CACS and different CAD risk factors was determined as well. Different cutoff points of CACS for discriminating between different levels of coronary artery stenosis was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The mean CACS was significantly different between different levels of coronary artery stenosis (P<0.001) and there was a significant positive association between the severity of CAD and CACS (P<0.001,r=0.781). ROC curve analysis indicated that the optimal cutoff point for discriminating between CAD (presence of stenosis) and the non-stenosis condition was 5.35 with 88.6% sensitivity and 86.2% specificity. Area under the curve for different levels of coronary artery stenosis did not have sufficient sensitivity and specificity for discriminating between different levels of CAD severity (<70%). Conclusions The study demonstrated that there is a significant association between CACS and the presence as well as the severity of CAD. CACS could have an appropriate prognostic value for the determination of coronary artery stenosis but not for discriminating between different severities of stenoses.

  17. NAFLD fibrosis score: A prognostic predictor for mortality and liver complications among NAFLD patients

    PubMed Central

    Treeprasertsuk, Sombat; Björnsson, Einar; Enders, Felicity; Suwanwalaikorn, Sompongse; Lindor, Keith D

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To study whether the severity of liver fibrosis estimated by the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score can predict all-cause mortality, cardiac complications, and/or liver complications of patients with NAFLD over long-term follow-up. METHODS: A cohort of well-characterized patients with NAFLD diagnosed during the period of 1980-2000 was identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project. The NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) was used to separate NAFLD patients with and without advanced liver fibrosis. We used the NFS score to classify the probability of fibrosis as < -1.5 for low probability, > -1.5 to < 0.67 for intermediate probability, and > 0.67 for high probability. Primary endpoints included all-cause death and cardiovascular- and/or liver-related mortality. From the 479 patients with NAFLD assessed, 302 patients (63%) greater than 18 years old were included. All patients were followed, and medical charts were reviewed until August 31, 2009 or the date when the first primary endpoint occurred. By using a standardized case record form, we recorded a detailed history and physical examination and the use of statins and metformin during the follow-up period. RESULTS: A total of 302/479 (63%) NAFLD patients (mean age: 47 ± 13 year) were included with a follow-up period of 12.0 ± 3.9 year. A low probability of advanced fibrosis (NFS < -1.5 at baseline) was found in 181 patients (60%), while an intermediate or high probability of advanced fibrosis (NSF > -1.5) was found in 121 patients (40%). At the end of the follow-up period, 55 patients (18%) developed primary endpoints. A total of 39 patients (13%) died during the follow-up. The leading causes of death were non-hepatic malignancy (n = 13/39; 33.3%), coronary heart disease (CHD) (n = 8/39; 20.5%), and liver-related mortality (n = 5/39; 12.8%). Thirty patients had new-onset CHD, whereas 8 of 30 patients (27%) died from CHD-related causes during the follow-up. In a multivariate analysis, a

  18. Prognostic value of long noncoding RNA HOTAIR in digestive system malignancies.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shuai; Wang, Zhou

    2015-07-01

    HOX transcript antisense intergenic RNA (HOTAIR), a well-known long noncoding RNA, has been found to play significant roles in several tumors. However, the clinical application value of HOTAIR in digestive system malignancies remains to be clarified. We aimed to explore comprehensively the potential role of HOTAIR as a prognostic indicator in digestive system malignancies. Systematic search was performed in Pubmed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science until July 5, 2014. A quantitative meta-analysis was conducted with standard statistical methods for eligible papers on the prognostic value of HOTAIR in digestive system cancers. A total of 1059 patients from 13 studies were included in the meta-analysis. A significant association was found between HOTAIR abundance and poor overall survival (OS) of patients with digestive system malignancies, with pooled hazard ratio (HR) of 2.587 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.054-3.259, P < 0.001). By combining HRs from Cox multivariate analyses, we found HOTAIR was an independent prognostic factor for OS without obvious heterogeneity (HR: 2.405, 95% CI: 1.883-3.0722, P < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that tumor type, histology type, region, publication year, sample size, and quality score did not alter the predictive value of HOTAIR as an independent factor for survival. Meta-regression and sensitivity analysis both suggested the reliability of our findings. A slight publication bias was observed. After adjustment by nonparametric "trim-and-fill" method, the corrected HRs had no significant change. HOTAIR could be exploited as a novel prognostic biomarker for patients with digestive system malignancies. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  19. Flow cytometric maturity score as a novel prognostic parameter in patients with acute myeloid leukemia.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Tanja; Flörcken, Anne; Singh, Anju; Türkmen, Seval; Burmeister, Thomas; Anagnostopoulos, Ioannis; Pezzutto, Antonio; Dörken, Bernd; Westermann, Jörg

    2015-08-01

    The European LeukemiaNet (ELN) classification is widely accepted for risk stratification of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). In order to establish immunophenotypic features that predict prognosis, the expression of single AML blast cell antigens has been evaluated with partly conflicting results; however, the influence of immunophenotypic blast maturity is largely unknown. In our study, 300 AML patients diagnosed at our institution between January 2003 and April 2012 were analyzed. A flow cytometric maturity score was developed in order to distinguish "mature" AML (AML-ma) from "immature" AML (AML-im) by quantitative expression levels of early progenitor cell antigens (CD34, CD117, and TdT). AML-ma showed significantly longer relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) than AML-im (p < 0.001). Interestingly, statistically significant differences in RFS and OS were maintained within the "intermediate-risk" group according to ELN (RFS, 7.0 years (AML-ma) vs. 3.3 years (AML-im); p = 0.002; OS, 5.1 years (AML-ma) vs. 3.0 years (AML-im); p = 0.022). Our novel flow cytometric score easily determines AML blast maturity and can predict clinical outcome. It remains to be clarified whether these results simply reflect an accumulation of favorable molecular phenotypes in the AML-ma subgroup or whether they rely on biological differences such as a higher proportion of leukemia stem cells and/or a higher degree of genetic instability within the AML-im subgroup.

  20. Anti-epidermal or anti-vascular endothelial growth factor as first-line metastatic colorectal cancer in modified Glasgow prognostic score 2' patients

    PubMed Central

    Dréanic, Johann; Dhooge, Marion; Barret, Maximilien; Brezault, Catherine; Mir, Olivier; Chaussade, Stanislas; Coriat, Romain

    2015-01-01

    Background In metastatic colorectal cancer, the modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) has been approved as an independent prognostic indicator of survival. No data existed on poor prognosis patients treated with molecular-targeted agents. Methods From January 2007 to February 2012, patients with metastatic colorectal cancer and poor predictive survival score (mGPS = 2), treated with 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy in addition to an anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) or anti-vascular epidermal growth factor (VEGF) therapy, were included to assess the interest of targeted therapy within mGPS = 2' patients. Results A total of 27 mGPS = 2' patients were included and received a 5-fluorouracil-based systemic chemotherapy in addition to an anti-EGFR treatment (cetuximab; n = 18) or an anti-VEGF treatment (bevacizumab; n = 9). Median follow-up was 12.1 months (interquartile range 4.9–22). Patients were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status 1, 2, and 3 in 66% (n = 18), 26% (n = 7), and 8% (n = 2), respectively. Comparing anti-EGFR and anti-VEGF groups, median progression-free survival was 3.9 and 15.4 months, respectively, and was significantly different (P = 0.046). Conversely, the median overall survival was not significantly different between the two groups (P = 0.15). Conclusion Our study confirmed the poor survival of patients with mGPS = 2 despite the use of targeted therapy and identified the superiority of an anti-VEGF treatment in progression-free survival, without a significant benefit in the overall survival compared with the anti-EGFR therapy. Our results deserved confirmation by a prospective clinical trial. PMID:26401469

  1. Prognostic Significance of Neuroendocrine Differentiation in Patients With Gleason Score 8-10 Prostate Cancer Treated With Primary Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Krauss, Daniel J.; Hayek, Sylvia; Amin, Mitual; Ye Hong; Kestin, Larry L.; Zadora, Steven; Vicini, Frank A.; Cotant, Matthew; Brabbins, Donald S.; Ghilezan, Michel I.; Gustafson, Gary S.; Martinez, Alvaro A.

    2011-11-01

    Purpose: To determine the prognostic significance of neuroendocrine differentiation (NED) in Gleason score 8-10 prostate cancer treated with primary radiotherapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Chromogranin A (CgA) staining was performed and overseen by a single pathologist on core biopsies from 176 patients from the William Beaumont prostate cancer database. A total of 143 had evaluable biopsy material. Staining was quantified as 0%, <1%, 1-10%, or >10% of tumor cells. Patients received external beam RT alone or together with high-dose-rate brachytherapy. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier estimates determined if the presence/frequency of neuroendocrine cells correlated with clinical endpoints. Results: Median follow-up was 5.5 years. Forty patients (28%) had at least focal positive CgA staining (<1% n = 21, 1-10% n = 11, >10% n = 8). No significant differences existed between patients with or without staining in terms of age, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, tumor stage, hormone therapy administration, % biopsy core involvement, mean Gleason score, or RT dose/modality. CgA staining concentration independently predicted for biochemical and clinical failure, distant metastases (DM), and cause-specific survival (CSS). For patients with <1% vs. >1% staining, 10-year DM rates were 13.4% vs. 55.3%, respectively (p = 0.001), and CSS was 91.7% vs. 58.9% (p < 0.001). As a continuous variable, increasing CgA staining concentration predicted for inferior rates of DM, CSS, biochemical control, and any clinical failure. No differences in outcomes were appreciated for patients with 0% vs. <1% NED. Conclusions: For Gleason score 8-10 prostate cancer, >1% NED is associated with inferior clinical outcomes for patients treated with radiotherapy. This relates most directly to an increase in distant disease failure.

  2. Design and Validation of the GI-NEC Score to Prognosticate Overall Survival in Patients With High-Grade Gastrointestinal Neuroendocrine Carcinomas.

    PubMed

    Lamarca, Angela; Walter, Thomas; Pavel, Marianne; Borbath, Ivan; Freis, Patricia; Nuñez, Barbara; Childs, Alexa; McNamara, Mairéad G; Hubner, Richard A; Garcia-Carbonero, Rocio; Meyer, Tim; Valle, Juan W; Barriuso, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    Prognostic markers for risk stratification of patients with gastrointestinal high-grade neuroendocrine carcinomas (GI-NECs) are lacking; we designed and validated a prognostic score for overall survival (OS). Consecutive patients diagnosed in five neuroendocrine specialist European centers were included. Patients were divided into three cohorts: a training cohort (TC), an external validation cohort (EVC), and a prospective validation cohort (PVC). Prognostic factors were identified by log-rank test, Cox-regression, and logistic regression analyses. The derived score was internally and externally validated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Of 395 patients screened, 313 were eligible (TC = 109 patients, EVC = 184 patients, and PVC = 20 patients). The derived prognostic score included five variables: presence of liver metastases, alkaline phosphatase (ALK), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), and Ki67. In multivariable analysis, the score was prognostic for OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.47 to 2.35, P < .001) and had good discrimination (C-index = 0.76) and calibration (mean error = 0.021, 90th percentile = 0.037) in the TC. These results were validated in the EVC and PVC, in which our score was able to prognosticate for OS when adjusted for other prognostic variables in the multivariable analysis (HR = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.27 to 2.71, P = .001; and HR = 4.51, 95% CI = 1.87 to 10.87, P = .001, respectively). The score classified patients into two groups with incremental risk of death: group A (0-2 points, 181 patients [63.9%], median OS = 19.4 months, 95% CI = 16.1 to 25.1) and group B (3-6 points, 102 patients [36.1%], median OS = 5.2 months, 95% CI = 3.6 to 6.9). The GI-NEC score identifies two distinct patient cohorts; it provides a tool for clinicians when making treatment decisions and may be used as a stratification factor in future

  3. Evaluating covariance in prognostic and system health management applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menon, Sandeep; Jin, Xiaohang; Chow, Tommy W. S.; Pecht, Michael

    2015-06-01

    Developing a diagnostic and prognostic health management system involves analyzing system parameters monitored during the lifetime of the system. This data analysis may involve multiple steps, including data reduction, feature extraction, clustering and classification, building control charts, identification of anomalies, and modeling and predicting parameter degradation in order to evaluate the state of health for the system under investigation. Evaluating the covariance between the monitored system parameters allows for better understanding of the trends in monitored system data, and therefore it is an integral part of the data analysis. Typically, a sample covariance matrix is used to evaluate the covariance between monitored system parameters. The monitored system data are often sensor data, which are inherently noisy. The noise in sensor data can lead to inaccurate evaluation of the covariance in data using a sample covariance matrix. This paper examines approaches to evaluate covariance, including the minimum volume ellipsoid, the minimum covariance determinant, and the nearest neighbor variance estimation. When the performance of these approaches was evaluated on datasets with increasing percentage of Gaussian noise, it was observed that the nearest neighbor variance estimation exhibited the most stable estimates of covariance. To improve the accuracy of covariance estimates using nearest neighbor-based methodology, a modified approach for the nearest neighbor variance estimation technique is developed in this paper. Case studies based on data analysis steps involved in prognostic solutions are developed in order to compare the performance of the covariance estimation methodologies discussed in the paper.

  4. Diagnostic Reasoning using Prognostic Information for Unmanned Aerial Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schumann, Johann; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Kulkarni, Chetan

    2015-01-01

    With increasing popularity of unmanned aircraft, continuous monitoring of their systems, software, and health status is becoming more and more important to ensure safe, correct, and efficient operation and fulfillment of missions. The paper presents integration of prognosis models and prognostic information with the R2U2 (REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, and UNOBTRUSIVE Unit) monitoring and diagnosis framework. This integration makes available statistically reliable health information predictions of the future at a much earlier time to enable autonomous decision making. The prognostic information can be used in the R2U2 model to improve diagnostic accuracy and enable decisions to be made at the present time to deal with events in the future. This will be an advancement over the current state of the art, where temporal logic observers can only do such valuation at the end of the time interval. Usefulness and effectiveness of this integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework was demonstrated using simulation experiments with the NASA Dragon Eye electric unmanned aircraft.

  5. Prognostic Value of Coronary Computed Tomography (CT) Angiography and Coronary Artery Calcium Score Performed Before Revascularization

    PubMed Central

    Fujimoto, Shinichiro; Kondo, Takeshi; Kumamaru, Kanako K; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Takamura, Kazuhisa; Kawaguchi, Yuko; Matsumori, Rie; Hiki, Makoto; Miyauchi, Katsumi; Daida, Hiroyuki; Rybicki, Frank J

    2015-01-01

    Background Cardiac events after revascularization are equally attributable to recurrence at site of culprit lesions and development of nonculprit lesions. We evaluated the hypothesis that coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) performed before revascularization predicts cardiac events after treatment. Methods and Results Among 2238 consecutive patients without known coronary artery disease who underwent coronary CT angiography and CACS, 359 patients underwent revascularization within 30 days after CT; in 337 of 359 (93.9%) follow-up clinical information was available. In addition to known cardiac risk factors, CT findings were evaluated as predictors of cardiac events after revascularization: CACS and the presence of CT-verified high-risk plaque (CT-HRP). Improvement of predictive accuracy by including CT findings was evaluated from a discrimination (Harrell’s C-statistics) standpoint. During the follow-up period (median: 673, interquartile range: 47 to 1529 days), a total of 98 cardiac events occurred. Cox proportional hazard model revealed that age, diabetes, triglyceride, CACS, and nonculprit CT-HRP were significant predictors of overall cardiac events. Although not statistically significant, discriminatory power was greater for the model with CACS (C-stat: 63.2%) and the model with both CACS and CT-HRP (65.8%) compared to the model including neither CACS nor CT-HRP (60.7%). Conclusions High CACS and the presence of nonculprit CT-HRP performed before revascularization are significant predictors of cardiac events after revascularization. PMID:26296858

  6. Does the RIFLE Classification Improve Prognostic Value of the APACHE II Score in Critically Ill Patients?

    PubMed

    Wahrhaftig, Kátia M; Correia, Luis C L; Matias, Denise; De Souza, Carlos A M

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. The RIFLE classification defines three severity criteria for acute kidney injury (AKI): risk, injury, and failure. It was associated with mortality according to the gradation of AKI severity. However, it is not known if the APACHE II score, associated with the RIFLE classification, results in greater discriminatory power in relation to mortality in critical patients. Objective. To analyze whether the RIFLE classification adds value to the performance of APACHE II in predicting mortality in critically ill patients. Methods. An observational prospective cohort of 200 patients admitted to the ICU from July 2010 to July 2011. Results. The age of the sample was 66 (±16.7) years, 53.3% female. ICU mortality was 23.5%. The severity of AKI presented higher risk of death: class risk (RR = 1.89 CI:0.97-3.38, P = 0.001), grade injury (RR = 3.7 CI:1.71-8.08, P = 0.001), and class failure (RR = 4.79 CI:2.10-10.6, P = 0.001). The APACHE II had C-statistics of 0.75, 95% (CI:0.68-0.80, P = 0.001) and 0.80 (95% CI:0.74 to 0.86, P = 0.001) after being incorporated into the RIFLE classification in relation to prediction of death. In the comparison between AUROCs, P = 0.03. Conclusion. The severity of AKI, defined by the RIFLE classification, was a risk marker for mortality in critically ill patients, and improved the performance of APACHE II in predicting the mortality in this population.

  7. Does the RIFLE Classification Improve Prognostic Value of the APACHE II Score in Critically Ill Patients?

    PubMed Central

    Wahrhaftig, Kátia M.; Correia, Luis C. L.; De Souza, Carlos A. M.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. The RIFLE classification defines three severity criteria for acute kidney injury (AKI): risk, injury, and failure. It was associated with mortality according to the gradation of AKI severity. However, it is not known if the APACHE II score, associated with the RIFLE classification, results in greater discriminatory power in relation to mortality in critical patients. Objective. To analyze whether the RIFLE classification adds value to the performance of APACHE II in predicting mortality in critically ill patients. Methods. An observational prospective cohort of 200 patients admitted to the ICU from July 2010 to July 2011. Results. The age of the sample was 66 (±16.7) years, 53.3% female. ICU mortality was 23.5%. The severity of AKI presented higher risk of death: class risk (RR = 1.89 CI:0.97–3.38, P = 0.001), grade injury (RR = 3.7 CI:1.71–8.08, P = 0.001), and class failure (RR = 4.79 CI:2.10–10.6, P = 0.001). The APACHE II had C-statistics of 0.75, 95% (CI:0.68–0.80, P = 0.001) and 0.80 (95% CI:0.74 to 0.86, P = 0.001) after being incorporated into the RIFLE classification in relation to prediction of death. In the comparison between AUROCs, P = 0.03. Conclusion. The severity of AKI, defined by the RIFLE classification, was a risk marker for mortality in critically ill patients, and improved the performance of APACHE II in predicting the mortality in this population. PMID:24024031

  8. Prognostic value of malnutrition assessed by Controlling Nutritional Status score for long-term mortality in patients with acute heart failure.

    PubMed

    Iwakami, Naotsugu; Nagai, Toshiyuki; Furukawa, Toshiaki A; Sugano, Yasuo; Honda, Satoshi; Okada, Atsushi; Asaumi, Yasuhide; Aiba, Takeshi; Noguchi, Teruo; Kusano, Kengo; Ogawa, Hisao; Yasuda, Satoshi; Anzai, Toshihisa

    2017-03-01

    The prognostic value of nutritional status is poorly understood and evidence-based nutritional assessment indices are required in acute heart failure (AHF). We investigated the prognostic value of malnutrition assessed by the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score (range 0-12, higher=worse, consisting of serum albumin, cholesterol and lymphocytes) in AHF patients. The CONUT score was measured on admission in 635 consecutive AHF patients. The primary outcome was all-cause death. Median CONUT score was 3 (interquartile range 2 to 5). During the median follow-up of 324days, CONUT score was independently associated with death (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.11-1.42, P<0.001) after adjustment for confounders in a multivariate Cox model. The CONUT score demonstrated the best C-statistic for predicting death (0.71) among other common nutritional markers in HF. Furthermore, addition of the CONUT score to an established risk prediction model from the Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Hospitalized Patients with Heart Failure study significantly increased the C-statistic from 0.75 to 0.77 (P=0.02). The net reclassification improvement afforded by CONUT score was 21% for all-cause death, 27% for survival and 49% overall (P<0.001). Malnutrition assessed by the CONUT score on admission was an independent determinant of long-term death in AHF, and its prognostic value outweighed that of other nutritional indices. Moreover, addition of the score to the existing risk prediction model significantly increased the predictive ability for death, indicating beneficial clinical application of the CONUT score in AHF patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Statistical tools for prognostics and health management of complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, David H; Huzurbazar, Aparna V; Anderson - Cook, Christine M

    2010-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is increasingly important for understanding and managing today's complex systems. These systems are typically mission- or safety-critical, expensive to replace, and operate in environments where reliability and cost-effectiveness are a priority. We present background on PHM and a suite of applicable statistical tools and methods. Our primary focus is on predicting future states of the system (e.g., the probability of being operational at a future time, or the expected remaining system life) using heterogeneous data from a variety of sources. We discuss component reliability models incorporating physical understanding, condition measurements from sensors, and environmental covariates; system reliability models that allow prediction of system failure time distributions from component failure models; and the use of Bayesian techniques to incorporate expert judgments into component and system models.

  10. Short- and Long-Term Prognostic Utility of the HEART Score in Patients Evaluated in the Emergency Department for Possible Acute Coronary Syndrome.

    PubMed

    Jain, Tarun; Nowak, Richard; Hudson, Michael; Frisoli, Tiberio; Jacobsen, Gordon; McCord, James

    2016-06-01

    The HEART score is a risk-stratification tool that was developed and validated for patients evaluated for possible acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the emergency department (ED). We sought to determine the short-term and long-term prognostic utility of the HEART score. A retrospective single-center analysis of 947 patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED in 1999 was conducted. Patients were followed for major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) at 30 days: death, acute myocardial infarction, or revascularization procedure. All-cause mortality was assessed at 5 years. The HEART score was compared with the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score. At 30 days, 14% (135/947) of patients had an MACE: 48 deaths (5%), 84 acute myocardial infarctions (9%), and 48 (5%) revascularization procedures. The MACE rate in patients with HEART score ≤3 was 0.6% (1/175) involving a revascularization procedure, 9.5% (53/557) in patients with HEART score between 4 and 6, and 38% (81/215) with HEART score ≥7. The C-statistic for the HEART score was 0.82 and 0.68 for the TIMI score for predicting 30-day MACE (P < 0.05). Patients with HEART score ≤3 had lower 5-year mortality rate compared with those with TIMI score of 0 (10.6% vs. 20.5%, P = 0.02). The HEART score is a valuable risk-stratification tool in predicting not only short-term MACE but also long-term mortality in patients evaluated for possible ACS in the ED. The HEART score had a superior prognostic value compared with the TIMI score.

  11. Prognostic Score-Based Difference-in-Differences Strategy for Multilevel Multi-Cohort Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hong, Guanglei

    2013-01-01

    When using time series accountability data to evaluate system-wide education policies, concurrent changes often pose threats to internal validity. The standard difference-in-differences (DID) method resorts to a non-equivalent comparison group whose average outcome change is due to such confounding. This strategy relies on the strong assumption…

  12. Validity of Outcome Prediction Scoring Systems in Korean Patients with Severe Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome Receiving Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Therapy.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seunghyun; Yeo, Hye Ju; Yoon, Seong Hoon; Lee, Seung Eun; Cho, Woo Hyun; Jeon, Doo Soo; Kim, Yun Seong; Son, Bong Soo; Kim, Do Hyung

    2016-06-01

    Recently, several prognostic scoring systems for patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) have been published. The aim of this study was to validate the established scoring systems for outcome prediction in Korean patients. We retrospectively reviewed the data of 50 patients on ECMO therapy in our center from 2012 to 2014. A calculation of outcome prediction scoring tools was performed and the comparison across various models was conducted. In our study, the overall hospital survival was 46% and successful weaning rate was 58%. The Predicting Death for Severe ARDS on V-V ECMO (PRESERVE) score showed good discrimination of mortality prediction for patients on ECMO with AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.66-0.90). The respiratory extracorporeal membrane oxygenation survival prediction (RESP) score and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II score also showed fair prediction ability with AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.65-0.89) and AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.64-0.88), respectively. However, the ECMOnet score failed to predict mortality with AUC of 0.51 (95% CI 0.37-0.66). When evaluating the predictive accuracy according to optimal cut-off point of each scoring system, RESP score had a best specificity of 91.3% and 66.7% of sensitivity, respectively. This study supports the clinical usefulness of the prognostic scoring tools for severe ARDS with ECMO therapy when applying to the Korean patients receiving ECMO.

  13. Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score in the Prognostication after Endovascular Treatment for Ischemic Stroke: A Meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Hee Shup; Park, Soonchan; Suh, Sang Hyun; Koh, Jun Seok; Choi, Hye-Yeon

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) was devised to quantify the extent of early ischemic changes in the middle cerebral artery territory on brain CT. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that presented clinical outcomes and baseline ASPECTS in ischemic stroke patients managed with endovascular methods to validate the use of ASPECTS for risk prognostication. Materials and Methods We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochran databases for observational or interventional studies that reported clinical outcomes and baseline ASPECTS in ischemic stroke patients treated with endovascular methods. Data were pooled to perform a meta-analysis for comparisons of clinical outcomes between high and low ASPECTS patients. Results A meta-analysis of 13 studies (six observational and seven interventional) revealed favorable outcomes (mRS sore 0-2 at 90 days) for high baseline ASPECTS (odds ratio=2.22; 95% CI: 1.74-2.86). Conclusion High ASPECTS is a predictor of favorable outcome after endovascular therapy for ischemic stroke. PMID:28316866

  14. The relationship between nutritional status and the Glasgow prognostic score in patients with cancer of the esophagus and stomach.

    PubMed

    da Silva, Jacqueline Braga; Maurício, Sílvia Fernandes; Bering, Tatiana; Correia, Maria Isabel T D

    2013-01-01

    A relationship between weight loss and inflammation has been described in patients with cancer. In the present study, the relationship between subjective global assessment (SGA) and the severity of inflammation, as defined by Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), as well as the relationship of both of these measures with the presence of complications and survival time, was assessed. In addition, we compared the diagnosis given by SGA with parameters of nutritional assessment, such as body mass index, triceps skinfold, midarm circumference (MAC), midarm muscle circumference (MAMC), phase angle (PA), adductor pollicis muscle thickness (APMT), and handgrip strength (HGS). According to the SGA, the nutritional status was associated with the GPS (P < 0.05), and both the SGA and GPS were associated with the presence of complications. However, the GPS [area under the curve (AUC): 0.77, P < 0.05, confidence interval (CI) = 0.580, 0.956] seems to be more accurate in identifying complications than the SGA (AUC: 0.679, P < 0.05, CI = 0.426, 0.931). Only GPS was associated with survival time. Comparing the different nutritional assessment methods with the SGA suggested that the MAC, MAMC, APMT, PA, and HGS parameters may be helpful in differentiating between nourished and malnourished patients, if new cutoffs are adopted.

  15. Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score in the Prognostication after Endovascular Treatment for Ischemic Stroke: A Meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Ryu, Chang-Woo; Shin, Hee Shup; Park, Soonchan; Suh, Sang Hyun; Koh, Jun Seok; Choi, Hye-Yeon

    2017-03-01

    The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) was devised to quantify the extent of early ischemic changes in the middle cerebral artery territory on brain CT. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that presented clinical outcomes and baseline ASPECTS in ischemic stroke patients managed with endovascular methods to validate the use of ASPECTS for risk prognostication. We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochran databases for observational or interventional studies that reported clinical outcomes and baseline ASPECTS in ischemic stroke patients treated with endovascular methods. Data were pooled to perform a meta-analysis for comparisons of clinical outcomes between high and low ASPECTS patients. A meta-analysis of 13 studies (six observational and seven interventional) revealed favorable outcomes (mRS sore 0-2 at 90 days) for high baseline ASPECTS (odds ratio=2.22; 95% CI: 1.74-2.86). High ASPECTS is a predictor of favorable outcome after endovascular therapy for ischemic stroke.

  16. A prognostic score to identify low-risk outpatients with acute deep vein thrombosis in the upper extremity.

    PubMed

    Rosa-Salazar, V; Trujillo-Santos, J; Díaz Peromingo, J A; Apollonio, A; Sanz, O; Malý, R; Muñoz-Rodriguez, F J; Serrano, J C; Soler, S; Monreal, M

    2015-07-01

    No studies have identified which patients with upper-extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) are at low risk for adverse events within the first week of therapy. We used data from Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica to explore in patients with upper-extremity DVT a prognostic score that correctly identified patients with lower limb DVT at low risk for pulmonary embolism, major bleeding, or death within the first week. As of December 2014, 1135 outpatients with upper-extremity DVT were recruited. Of these, 515 (45%) were treated at home. During the first week, three patients (0.26%) experienced pulmonary embolism, two (0.18%) had major bleeding, and four (0.35%) died. We assigned 1 point to patients with chronic heart failure, creatinine clearance levels 30-60 mL min(-1) , recent bleeding, abnormal platelet count, recent immobility, or cancer without metastases; 2 points to those with metastatic cancer; and 3 points to those with creatinine clearance levels < 30 mL min(-1) . Overall, 759 (67%) patients scored ≤ 1 point and were considered to be at low risk. The rate of the composite outcome within the first week was 0.26% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.004-0.87) in patients at low risk and 1.86% (95% CI 0.81-3.68) in the remaining patients. C-statistics was 0.73 (95% CI 0.57-0.88). Net reclassification improvement was 22%, and integrated discrimination improvement was 0.0055. Using six easily available variables, we identified outpatients with upper-extremity DVT at low risk for adverse events within the first week. These data may help to safely treat more patients at home. © 2015 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

  17. A Contemporary Prostate Cancer Grading System: A Validated Alternative to the Gleason Score

    PubMed Central

    Epstein, Jonathan I.; Zelefsky, Michael J.; Sjoberg, Daniel D.; Nelson, Joel B.; Egevad, Lars; Magi-Galluzzi, Cristina; Vickers, Andrew J.; Parwani, Anil V.; Reuter, Victor E.; Fine, Samson W.; Eastham, James A.; Wiklund, Peter; Han, Misop; Reddy, Chandana A.; Ciezki, Jay P.; Nyberg, Tommy; Klein, Eric A.

    2016-01-01

    Background Despite revisions in 2005 and 2014, the Gleason prostate cancer (PCa) grading system still has major deficiencies. Combining of Gleason scores into a three-tiered grouping (6, 7, 8–10) is used most frequently for prognostic and therapeutic purposes. The lowest score, assigned 6, may be misunderstood as a cancer in the middle of the grading scale, and 3 + 4 = 7 and 4 + 3 = 7 are often considered the same prognostic group. Objective To verify that a new grading system accurately produces a smaller number of grades with the most significant prognostic differences, using multi-institutional and multimodal therapy data. Design, setting, and participants Between 2005 and 2014, 20 845 consecutive men were treated by radical prostatectomy at five academic institutions; 5501 men were treated with radiotherapy at two academic institutions. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Outcome was based on biochemical recurrence (BCR). The log-rank test assessed univariable differences in BCR by Gleason score. Separate univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards used four possible categorizations of Gleason scores. Results and limitations In the surgery cohort, we found large differences in recurrence rates between both Gleason 3 + 4 versus 4 + 3 and Gleason 8 versus 9. The hazard ratios relative to Gleason score 6 were 1.9, 5.1, 8.0, and 11.7 for Gleason scores 3 + 4, 4 + 3, 8, and 9–10, respectively. These differences were attenuated in the radiotherapy cohort as a whole due to increased adjuvant or neoadjuvant hormones for patients with high-grade disease but were clearly seen in patients undergoing radiotherapy only. A five–grade group system had the highest prognostic discrimination for all cohorts on both univariable and multivariable analysis. The major limitation was the unavoidable use of prostate-specific antigen BCR as an end point as opposed to cancer-related death. Conclusions The new PCa grading system has these benefits: more

  18. Comparison of the prognostic value of normal regadenoson with normal adenosine myocardial perfusion imaging with propensity score matching.

    PubMed

    Iqbal, Fahad M; Hage, Fadi G; Ahmed, Ali; Dean, Phillip J; Raslan, Saleem; Heo, Jaekyeong; Iskandrian, Ami E

    2012-10-01

    The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that patients with normal regadenoson myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) have a low rate of cardiac events, similar to patients with normal adenosine MPI. Regadenoson, a new selective adenosine A(2A) receptor agonist, is now a widely used stress agent for MPI. The low rate of cardiac events in patients with normal adenosine MPI is well-documented, but the prognostic implications of a normal regadenoson MPI have not been examined and compared with those with adenosine. Data on primary composite endpoint (cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and coronary revascularization) were collected for 2,000 patients (1,000 regadenoson, and 1,000 adenosine stress) with normal myocardial perfusion and left ventricular ejection fraction referred for vasodilator MPI. In addition, propensity scores were used to assemble a balanced cohort of 505 pairs of patients who were balanced on 36 baseline characteristics. The primary endpoint occurred in 21 (2.1%; 1.1%/year) patients in the regadenoson group and 33 (3.3%; 1.7%/year) patients in the adenosine group (hazard ratio [HR] for regadenoson vs. adenosine: 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36 to 1.08; p = 0.090). In the propensity-matched pairs, the primary endpoint occurred in 7 (1.4%; 0.7%/year) patients in the regadenoson group and 13 (2.6%; 1.3%/year) patients in the adenosine group (matched HR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.23 to 1.48; p = 0.257). Cardiac deaths were infrequent in the entire sample and in the propensity-matched groups; the cardiac death rate was 0.9%/year and 1.15%/year in the regadenoson and adenosine groups (HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.42 to 1.43; p = 0.404) in the pre-match sample and 0.5%/year and 0.7%/year in the matched groups, respectively (HR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.25 to 2.73; p = 0.763). Major cardiac events are infrequent in patients with normal regadenoson MPI. These findings provide assurance that normal MPI using a simpler stress protocol with regadenoson provides prognostic

  19. Performance of an Automated Polysomnography Scoring System Versus Computer-Assisted Manual Scoring

    PubMed Central

    Malhotra, Atul; Younes, Magdy; Kuna, Samuel T.; Benca, Ruth; Kushida, Clete A.; Walsh, James; Hanlon, Alexandra; Staley, Bethany; Pack, Allan I.; Pien, Grace W.

    2013-01-01

    Study Objectives: Manual scoring of polysomnograms (PSG) is labor intensive and has considerable variance between scorers. Automation of scoring could reduce cost and improve reproducibility. The purpose of this study was to compare a new automated scoring system (YST-Limited, Winnipeg, Canada) with computer-assisted manual scoring. Design: Technical assessment. Setting: Five academic medical centers. Participants: N/A. Interventions: N/A. Measurements and Results: Seventy PSG files were selected at University of Pennsylvania (Penn) and distributed to five US academic sleep centers. Two blinded technologists from each center scored each file. Automatic scoring was performed at Penn by a YST Limited technician using a laptop containing the software. Variables examined were sleep stages, arousals, and apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) using three methods of identifying hypopneas. Automatic scores were not edited and were compared to the average scores of the 10 technologists. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was obtained for the 70 pairs and compared to across-sites ICCs for manually scored results. ICCs for automatic versus manual scoring were > 0.8 for total sleep time, stage N2, and nonrapid eye movement arousals and > 0.9 for AHI scored by primary and secondary American Academy of Sleep Medicine criteria. ICCs for other variables were not as high but were comparable to the across-site ICCs for manually scored results. Conclusion: The automatic system yielded results that were similar to those obtained by experienced technologists. Very good ICCs were obtained for many primary PSG outcome measures. This automated scoring software, particularly if supplemented with manual editing, may increase laboratory efficiency and standardize PSG scoring results within and across sleep centers. Citation: Malhotra A; Younes M; Kuna ST; Benca R; Kushida CA; Walsh J; Hanlon A; Staley B; Pack AI; Pien GW. Performance of an automated polysomnography scoring system versus computer

  20. An Evidenced Based Scoring System To Determine The Periodontal Prognosis On Molars

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Preston D.; McEntire, Mark L.; Marlow, Nicole M.; Gellin, Robert G.

    2014-01-01

    Background This retrospective study evaluated and assigned scores to six prognostic factors and derived a quantitative scoring system used to determine the periodontal prognosis on molar teeth. Methods Data were gathered on 816 molars in 102 patients with moderate to severe periodontitis. The six factors evaluated, age, probing depth, mobility, furcation involvement, smoking, and molar type, were assigned a numerical score based on statistical analysis. The sum of the scores for all factors was used to determine the prognosis score for each molar. Only patients with all first and second molars at the initial examination qualified for the study. All patients were a minimum of 15 years post treatment. Results The post treatment time ranged from 15 to 40 years and averaged 24 years. When the study was completed, 639 molars survived (78%), and of those surviving molars, 566 survived in health (89%). In molars with lower scores (1,2,and 3) the 15-year survival rates ranged from 99% to 96%. For scores 4, 5, 6 the 15 year survival rates ranged was 95% to 90% and for molars with scores of 7, 8, 9, and 10 the survival rates ranged from 86% to 67%. Conclusions Our results indicate that the periodontal prognosis on molars diagnosed with moderate to severe periodontitis can be calculated using an evidence-based scoring system. PMID:23725028

  1. Using acute kidney injury severity and scoring systems to predict outcome in patients with burn injury.

    PubMed

    Kuo, George; Yang, Shih-Yi; Chuang, Shiow-Shuh; Fan, Pei-Chun; Chang, Chih-Hsiang; Hsiao, Yen-Chang; Chen, Yung-Chang

    2016-12-01

    Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication of severe burn injury and is associated with mortality. The definition of AKI was modified by the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes Group in 2012. So far, no study has compared the outcome accuracy of the new AKI staging guidelines with that of the complex score system. Hence, we compared the accuracy of these approaches in predicting mortality. This was a post hoc analysis of prospectively collected data from an intensive care burn unit in a tertiary care university hospital. Patients admitted to this unit from July 2004 to December 2006 were enrolled. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data and prognostic risk scores were used as predictors of mortality. A total of 145 adult patients with a mean age of 41.9 years were studied. Thirty-five patients (24.1%) died during the hospital course. Among the prognostic risk models, the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III system exhibited the strongest discriminative power and the AKI staging system also predicted mortality well (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.889 vs. 0.835). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified total burn surface area, ventilator use, AKI, and toxic epidermal necrolysis as independent risk factors for mortality. Our results revealed that AKI stage has considerable discriminative power for predicting mortality. Compared with other prognostic models, AKI stage is easier to use to assess outcome in patients with severe burn injury. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. Patient Prognostic Score and Associations With Survival Improvement Offered by Radiotherapy After Breast-Conserving Surgery for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: A Population-Based Longitudinal Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Freedman, Rachel A.; Vaz-Luis, Ines; Mallory, Melissa Anne; Wong, Stephanie M.; Aydogan, Fatih; DeSantis, Stephen; Barry, William T.; Golshan, Mehra

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Radiotherapy (RT) after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) is a standard treatment option for the management of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). We sought to determine the survival benefit of RT after BCS on the basis of risk factors for local recurrence. Patients and Methods A retrospective longitudinal cohort study was performed to identify patients with DCIS diagnosed between 1988 and 2007 and treated with BCS by using SEER data. Patients were divided into the following two groups: BCS+RT (RT group) and BCS alone (non-RT group). We used a patient prognostic scoring model to stratify patients on the basis of risk of local recurrence. We performed a Cox proportional hazards model with propensity score weighting to evaluate breast cancer mortality between the two groups. Results We identified 32,144 eligible patients with DCIS, 20,329 (63%) in the RT group and 11,815 (37%) in the non-RT group. Overall, 304 breast cancer–specific deaths occurred over a median follow-up of 96 months, with a cumulative incidence of breast cancer mortality at 10 years in the weighted cohorts of 1.8% (RT group) and 2.1% (non-RT group; hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.88). Significant improvements in survival in the RT group compared with the non-RT group were only observed in patients with higher nuclear grade, younger age, and larger tumor size. The magnitude of the survival difference with RT was significantly correlated with prognostic score (P < .001). Conclusion In this population-based study, the patient prognostic score for DCIS is associated with the magnitude of improvement in survival offered by RT after BCS, suggesting that decisions for RT could be tailored on the basis of patient factors, tumor biology, and the prognostic score. PMID:26834064

  3. 15-Year Prognostic Utility of Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring for All-Cause Mortality in the Elderly

    PubMed Central

    Hartaigh, Bríain ó; Valenti, Valentina; Cho, Iksung; Schulman-Marcus, Joshua; Gransar, Heidi; Knapper, Joseph; Kelkar, Anita A.; Xie, Joseph X.; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Shaw, Leslee J.; Callister, Tracy Q.; Min, James K.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Prior studies have demonstrated a decline in the predictive ability of conventional risk factors (RF) with advancing age, emphasizing the need for novel tools to improve risk stratification in the elderly. Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a robust predictor of adverse cardiovascular events, but its long-term prognostic utility beyond RFs in elderly persons is unknown. Methods A consecutive series of 9,715 individuals underwent CAC scoring and were followed for a mean of 14.6±1.1 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) was employed to assess the independent relationship of CAC and RFs with all-cause death. The incremental value of CAC, stratified by age, was examined by using an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and category-free net reclassification improvement (NRI). Results Of the overall study sample, 728 (7.5%) adults (mean age 74.2±4.2 years; 55.6% female) were 70 years or older, of which 157 (21.6%) died. The presence of any CAC was associated with a >4-fold (95% CI = 2.84–6.59) adjusted risk of death for those over the age of 70, which was higher compared with younger study counterparts, or other measured RFs. For individuals 70 years or older, the discriminatory ability of CAC improved upon that of RFs alone (C statistics 0.764 vs. 0.675, P <0.001). CAC also enabled improved reclassification (category-free NRI = 84%, P <0.001) when added to RFs. Conclusion In a large-scale observational cohort registry, CAC improves prediction, discrimination, and reclassification of elderly individuals at risk for future death. PMID:26841073

  4. Traumatic extremity arterial injury in children: Epidemiology, diagnostics, treatment and prognostic value of Mangled Extremity Severity Score

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Traumatic paediatric arterial injuries are a great challenge due to low incidence and specific characteristics of paediatric anatomy and physiology. The aim of the present study was to investigate their epidemiology, diagnostic and therapeutic options and complications. Furthermore, the prognostic value of the Mangled Extremity Severity Score (MESS) was evaluated. Methods In a retrospective clinical study 44 children aged 9.0 ± 3.2 years treated for traumatic extremity arterial lesions in our Level I trauma center between 1971 and 2006 were enrolled. Exclusion criteria were age > 14, venous and iatrogenic vascular injury. Demographic data, mechanism of injury, severity of arterial lesions (by Vollmar and MESS), diagnostic and therapeutic management, complications and outcome were evaluated. Results The most commonly injured vessel was the femoral artery (25%) followed by the brachial artery (22.7%). The mechanism of injury was penetrating (31.8%), isolated severe blunt extremity trauma (29.6%), multiple trauma (25%) and humeral supracondylar fractures (13.6%). In 63.6% no specific vascular diagnostic procedure was performed in favour of emergency surgery. Surgical reconstructive strategies were preferred (68.2%). A MESS < 7 was associated with initial (p < 0.05) and definite limb salvage (p < 0.001) of the lower extremity. Conclusions Traumatic paediatric vascular injuries are very rare. The most common situations of vascular lesions in childhood were penetrating injuries and fractures of the extremities either as isolated injuries or in multiply injured patients. In paediatric patients, the MESS could serve as a basis for decision making for limb salvage or amputation. PMID:20398337

  5. Introducing the SKIN score: a validated scoring system to assess severity of mastectomy skin flap necrosis.

    PubMed

    Lemaine, Valerie; Hoskin, Tanya L; Farley, David R; Grant, Clive S; Boughey, Judy C; Torstenson, Tiffany A; Jacobson, Steven R; Jakub, James W; Degnim, Amy C

    2015-09-01

    With increasing use of immediate breast reconstruction (IBR), mastectomy skin flap necrosis (MSFN) is a clinical problem that deserves further study. We propose a validated scoring system to discriminate MSFN severity and standardize its assessment. Women who underwent skin-sparing (SSM) or nipple-sparing mastectomy (NSM) and IBR from November 2009 to October 2010 were studied retrospectively. A workgroup of breast and plastic surgeons scored postoperative photographs using the skin ischemia necrosis (SKIN) score to assess depth and surface area of MSFN. We evaluated correlation of the SKIN score with reoperation for MSFN and its reproducibility in an external sample of surgeons. We identified 106 subjects (175 operated breasts: 103 SSM, 72 NSM) who had ≥1 postoperative photograph within 60 days. SKIN scores correlated strongly with need for reoperation for MSFN, with an AUC of 0.96 for SSM and 0.89 for NSM. External scores agreed well with the gold standard scores for the breast mound photographs with weighted kappa values of 0.82 (depth), 0.56 (surface area), and 0.79 (composite score). The agreement was similar for the nipple-areolar complex photographs: 0.75 (depth), 0.63 (surface area), and 0.79 (composite score). A simple scoring system to assess the severity of MSFN is proposed, incorporating both depth and surface area of MSFN. The SKIN score correlates strongly with the need for reoperation to manage MSFN and is reproducible among breast and plastic surgeons.

  6. Accelerated Aging System for Prognostics of Power Semiconductor Devices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Celaya, Jose R.; Vashchenko, Vladislav; Wysocki, Philip; Saha, Sankalita

    2010-01-01

    Prognostics is an engineering discipline that focuses on estimation of the health state of a component and the prediction of its remaining useful life (RUL) before failure. Health state estimation is based on actual conditions and it is fundamental for the prediction of RUL under anticipated future usage. Failure of electronic devices is of great concern as future aircraft will see an increase of electronics to drive and control safety-critical equipment throughout the aircraft. Therefore, development of prognostics solutions for electronics is of key importance. This paper presents an accelerated aging system for gate-controlled power transistors. This system allows for the understanding of the effects of failure mechanisms, and the identification of leading indicators of failure which are essential in the development of physics-based degradation models and RUL prediction. In particular, this system isolates electrical overstress from thermal overstress. Also, this system allows for a precise control of internal temperatures, enabling the exploration of intrinsic failure mechanisms not related to the device packaging. By controlling the temperature within safe operation levels of the device, accelerated aging is induced by electrical overstress only, avoiding the generation of thermal cycles. The temperature is controlled by active thermal-electric units. Several electrical and thermal signals are measured in-situ and recorded for further analysis in the identification of leading indicators of failures. This system, therefore, provides a unique capability in the exploration of different failure mechanisms and the identification of precursors of failure that can be used to provide a health management solution for electronic devices.

  7. Prognostic impact of nutritional status assessed by the Controlling Nutritional Status score in patients with stable coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

    PubMed

    Wada, Hideki; Dohi, Tomotaka; Miyauchi, Katsumi; Doi, Shinichiro; Konishi, Hirokazu; Naito, Ryo; Tsuboi, Shuta; Ogita, Manabu; Kasai, Takatoshi; Okazaki, Shinya; Isoda, Kikuo; Suwa, Satoru; Daida, Hiroyuki

    2017-06-20

    Recently, malnutrition has been shown to be related to worse clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure. However, the association between nutritional status and clinical outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) remains unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of malnutrition assessed by the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT; range 0-12, higher = worse, consisting of serum albumin, cholesterol and lymphocytes) score in patients with CAD. The CONUT score was measured on admission in a total of 1987 patients with stable CAD who underwent elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) between 2000 and 2011. Patients were divided into two groups according to their CONUT score (0-1 vs. ≥2). The incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE), including all-cause death and non-fatal myocardial infarction, was evaluated. The median CONUT score was 1 (interquartile range 0-2). During the median follow-up of 7.4 years, 342 MACE occurred (17.2%). Kaplan-Meier curves revealed that patients with high CONUT scores had higher rates of MACE (log-rank p < 0.0001). High CONUT scores showed a significant increase in the incidence of MACE compared with low CONUT scores, even after adjusting for confounding factors (hazard ratio: 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.30-2.07, p < 0.0001). Adding CONUT scores to a baseline model with established risk factors improved the C-index (p = 0.02), net reclassification improvement (p = 0.004) and integrated discrimination improvement (p = 0.0003). Nutritional status assessed by the CONUT score was significantly associated with long-term clinical outcomes in patients with CAD. Pre-PCI assessment of the CONUT score may provide useful prognostic information.

  8. Performance of an automated polysomnography scoring system versus computer-assisted manual scoring.

    PubMed

    Malhotra, Atul; Younes, Magdy; Kuna, Samuel T; Benca, Ruth; Kushida, Clete A; Walsh, James; Hanlon, Alexandra; Staley, Bethany; Pack, Allan I; Pien, Grace W

    2013-04-01

    Manual scoring of polysomnograms (PSG) is labor intensive and has considerable variance between scorers. Automation of scoring could reduce cost and improve reproducibility. The purpose of this study was to compare a new automated scoring system (YST-Limited, Winnipeg, Canada) with computer-assisted manual scoring. Technical assessment. Five academic medical centers. N/A. N/A. Seventy PSG files were selected at University of Pennsylvania (Penn) and distributed to five US academic sleep centers. Two blinded technologists from each center scored each file. Automatic scoring was performed at Penn by a YST Limited technician using a laptop containing the software. Variables examined were sleep stages, arousals, and apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) using three methods of identifying hypopneas. Automatic scores were not edited and were compared to the average scores of the 10 technologists. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was obtained for the 70 pairs and compared to across-sites ICCs for manually scored results. ICCs for automatic versus manual scoring were > 0.8 for total sleep time, stage N2, and nonrapid eye movement arousals and > 0.9 for AHI scored by primary and secondary American Academy of Sleep Medicine criteria. ICCs for other variables were not as high but were comparable to the across-site ICCs for manually scored results. The automatic system yielded results that were similar to those obtained by experienced technologists. Very good ICCs were obtained for many primary PSG outcome measures. This automated scoring software, particularly if supplemented with manual editing, may increase laboratory efficiency and standardize PSG scoring results within and across sleep centers.

  9. Medullary thyroid carcinoma: clinical characteristics, treatment, prognostic factors, and a comparison of staging systems.

    PubMed

    Kebebew, E; Ituarte, P H; Siperstein, A E; Duh, Q Y; Clark, O H

    2000-03-01

    The clinical courses of patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) vary, and a number of prognostic factors have been studied, but the significance of some of these factors remains controversial. The study group consisted of 104 patients with MTC or C-cell hyperplasia managed at the hospitals of the University of California, San Francisco, between January 1960 and December 1998. Patients were classified as having sporadic MTC, familial non-multiple endocrine neoplasia (MEN) MTC, MEN 2A, or MEN 2B. The TNM, European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC), National Thyroid Cancer Treatment Cooperative Study (NTCTCS), and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) extent-of-disease stages were determined for each patient. The predictive values of these staging or prognostic scoring systems were compared by calculating the proportion of variance explained (PVE) for each system. Fifty-six percent of the patients had sporadic MTC, 22% had familial MTC, 15% had MEN 2A, and 7% had MEN 2B. The overall average age at diagnosis was 38 years, and patients with sporadic MTC presented at an older age (P < 0.05). Thirty-two percent of the patients with hereditary MTC were diagnosed by screening (genetic and/or biochemical). These patients had a lower incidence of cervical lymph node metastasis (P < 0.05) and 94.7% were cured at last follow-up (P < 0.0001) compared with patients not screened. Patients with sporadic MTC who had systemic symptoms (diarrhea, bone pain, or flushing) had widely metastatic MTC and 33.3% of those patients died within 5 years. Overall, 49.4% of the patients were cured, 12.3% had recurrent MTC, and 38.3% had persistent MTC. The mean follow-up time was 8.6 years (median, 5.0 years) with 10.7% (n=11) and 13.5% (n=14) cause specific mortality at 5 and 10 years, respectively. Patients with persistent or recurrent MTC who died of MTC lived for an average of 3.6 years (ranging from 1 month to 23.7 years). Patients who had total or

  10. Automatic Dialogue Scoring for a Second Language Learning System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Jin-Xia; Lee, Kyung-Soon; Kwon, Oh-Woog; Kim, Young-Kil

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an automatic dialogue scoring approach for a Dialogue-Based Computer-Assisted Language Learning (DB-CALL) system, which helps users learn language via interactive conversations. The system produces overall feedback according to dialogue scoring to help the learner know which parts should be more focused on. The scoring measures…

  11. Use of the Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) score in patients with brain metastases from primary tumours not represented in the diagnosis-specific GPA studies.

    PubMed

    Nieder, C; Andratschke, N H; Geinitz, H; Grosu, A L

    2012-08-01

    Assessment of prognostic factors might influence treatment decisions in patients with brain metastases. Based on large studies, the diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment (GPA) score is a useful tool. However, patients with unknown or rare primary tumours are not represented in this model. A pragmatic approach might be use of the first GPA version which is not limited to specific primary tumours. This retrospective analysis examines for the first time whether the GPA is a valid score in patients not eligible for the diagnosis-specific GPA. It includes 71 patients with unknown primary tumour, bladder cancer, ovarian cancer, thyroid cancer or other uncommon primaries. Survival was evaluated in uni- and multivariate tests. The GPA significantly predicted survival. Moreover, improved survival was seen in patients treated with surgical resection or radiosurgery (SRS) for brain metastases. The older recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) score was significant in univariate analysis. However, the multivariate model with RPA, GPA and surgery or SRS versus none showed that only GPA and type of treatment were independent predictors of survival. Ideally, cooperative research efforts would lead to development of diagnosis-specific scores also for patients with rare or unknown primary tumours. In the meantime, a pragmatic approach of using the general GPA score appears reasonable.

  12. An integrated fuzzy inference based monitoring, diagnostic, and prognostic system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garvey, Dustin

    To date the majority of the research related to the development and application of monitoring, diagnostic, and prognostic systems has been exclusive in the sense that only one of the three areas is the focus of the work. While previous research progresses each of the respective fields, the end result is a variable "grab bag" of techniques that address each problem independently. Also, the new field of prognostics is lacking in the sense that few methods have been proposed that produce estimates of the remaining useful life (RUL) of a device or can be realistically applied to real-world systems. This work addresses both problems by developing the nonparametric fuzzy inference system (NFIS) which is adapted for monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis and then proposing the path classification and estimation (PACE) model that can be used to predict the RUL of a device that does or does not have a well defined failure threshold. To test and evaluate the proposed methods, they were applied to detect, diagnose, and prognose faults and failures in the hydraulic steering system of a deep oil exploration drill. The monitoring system implementing an NFIS predictor and sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) detector produced comparable detection rates to a monitoring system implementing an autoassociative kernel regression (AAKR) predictor and SPRT detector, specifically 80% vs. 85% for the NFIS and AAKR monitor respectively. It was also found that the NFIS monitor produced fewer false alarms. Next, the monitoring system outputs were used to generate symptom patterns for k-nearest neighbor (kNN) and NFIS classifiers that were trained to diagnose different fault classes. The NFIS diagnoser was shown to significantly outperform the kNN diagnoser, with overall accuracies of 96% vs. 89% respectively. Finally, the PACE implementing the NFIS was used to predict the RUL for different failure modes. The errors of the RUL estimates produced by the PACE-NFIS prognosers ranged from 1

  13. [Critical examination of scoring systems in therapeutic trials].

    PubMed

    Bergmann, J F; Chassany, O; Segrestaa, J M; Caulin, C

    1994-01-01

    Scoring systems give a check-list and methodological informations which have to be found in controlled therapeutic trials reports and papers. These systems try to quantify each item to give a global score. The Chalmer's list is the most wellknown. It allows a balance in scoring taking in account the quality of the endpoints. Other lists are more simple. Many check-lists allow the scoring of the methodological design or the statistical analysis. In all systems the major methodological points are: the randomization, the description of the population, the double blind, the estimation of the sample size, the handling of withdrawal and drop out, the major endpoint, the patients follow-up, the statistical analysis and the data presentation. All these scoring systems have several limits: the quantitative evaluation of each item is subjective and the point scoring has never been validated, some scoring systems are old and don't integrate new methodological methods, the scores never included the clinical interest of the trial, some items are questionable, others are forgotten (intention to treat analysis, steering comity...). Scoring systems allow a control of the methodological quality of clinical trials but don't include the clinical or scientific interest of the study. These systems are a useful methodological tool for publication process in medical journals and for new drugs authorization. The evaluation by authors themselves of the quality of their papers using a standardized scoring system could clarify the reviewers decisions.

  14. Smart Sensing System for the Prognostic Monitoring of Bone Health

    PubMed Central

    Afsarimanesh, Nasrin; Zia, Asif I.; Mukhopadhyay, Subhas Chandra; Kruger, Marlena; Yu, Pak-Lam; Kosel, Jurgen; Kovacs, Zoltan

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to report a novel non-invasive, real-time, and label-free smart assay technique for the prognostic detection of bone loss by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The proposed system incorporated an antibody-antigen-based sensor functionalization to induce selectivity for the C-terminal telopeptide type one collagen (CTx-I) molecules—a bone loss biomarker. Streptavidin agarose was immobilized on the sensing area of a silicon substrate-based planar sensor, patterned with gold interdigital electrodes, to capture the antibody-antigen complex. Calibration experiments were conducted with various known CTx-I concentrations in a buffer solution to obtain a reference curve that was used to quantify the concentration of an analyte in the unknown serum samples. Multivariate chemometric analyses were done to determine the performance viability of the developed system. The analyses suggested that a frequency of 710 Hz is the most discriminating regarding the system sensitivity. A detection limit of 0.147 ng/mL was achieved for the proposed sensor and the corresponding reference curve was linear in the range of 0.147 ng/mL to 2.669 ng/mL. Two sheep blood samples were tested by the developed technique and the results were validated using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The results from the proposed technique match those from the ELISA. PMID:27347968

  15. Interobserver variability in Pirani clubfoot severity scoring system between the orthopedic surgeons.

    PubMed

    Jain, Saurabh; Ajmera, Anand; Solanki, Mahendra; Verma, Alok

    2017-01-01

    Congenital talipes equinovarus (clubfoot) is one of the most common congenital pediatric orthopedic foot deformity, which varies in severity and clinical course. Assessment of severity of the club foot deformity is essential to assess the initial severity of deformity, to monitor the progress of treatment, to prognosticate, and to identify early relapse. Pirani's scoring system is most acceptable and popular for club foot deformity assessment because it is simple, quick, cost effective, and easy. Since the scoring system is subjective in nature it has inter- and intra-observer variability, it is widely used. Hence, the interobserver variability between orthopedic surgeons in assessing the club foot severity by Pirani scoring system. We assessed the interobserver variability between five orthopedic surgeons of comparable skills, in assessing the club foot severity by Pirani scoring system in 80 feet of 60 children (20 bilateral and 40 unilateral) with club foot deformity. All the five different orthopedic surgeons were familiar with Pirani clubfoot severity scoring and Ponseti cast manipulation, as they had already worked in CTEV clinics for at least 2 months. Each of them independently scored, each foot as per the Pirani clubfoot scoring system and recorded total score (TS), Midfoot score (MFS), Hind foot score (HFS), posterior crease (PC), emptiness of heel (EH), rigidity of equnius (RE), medial crease (MC), curvature of lateral border (CLB), and lateral head of talus (LHT). Interobserver variability was calculated using kappa statistic for each of these signs and was judged as poor (0.00-0.20), fair (0.21-0.40), moderate (0.41-0.60), substantial (0.61-0.80), or almost perfect (0.81-1.00). The mean age was 137 days (range 21-335) days. The mean Pirani score was 3.86. We found the overall consistency to be substantial for overall score (total score kappa - 0.71) and also for midfoot (0.68) and hindfoot (0.66) separately. The consistency was least for the emptiness

  16. Interobserver variability in Pirani clubfoot severity scoring system between the orthopedic surgeons

    PubMed Central

    Jain, Saurabh; Ajmera, Anand; Solanki, Mahendra; Verma, Alok

    2017-01-01

    Background: Congenital talipes equinovarus (clubfoot) is one of the most common congenital pediatric orthopedic foot deformity, which varies in severity and clinical course. Assessment of severity of the club foot deformity is essential to assess the initial severity of deformity, to monitor the progress of treatment, to prognosticate, and to identify early relapse. Pirani's scoring system is most acceptable and popular for club foot deformity assessment because it is simple, quick, cost effective, and easy. Since the scoring system is subjective in nature it has inter- and intra-observer variability, it is widely used. Hence, the interobserver variability between orthopedic surgeons in assessing the club foot severity by Pirani scoring system. Materials and Methods: We assessed the interobserver variability between five orthopedic surgeons of comparable skills, in assessing the club foot severity by Pirani scoring system in 80 feet of 60 children (20 bilateral and 40 unilateral) with club foot deformity. All the five different orthopedic surgeons were familiar with Pirani clubfoot severity scoring and Ponseti cast manipulation, as they had already worked in CTEV clinics for at least 2 months. Each of them independently scored, each foot as per the Pirani clubfoot scoring system and recorded total score (TS), Midfoot score (MFS), Hind foot score (HFS), posterior crease (PC), emptiness of heel (EH), rigidity of equnius (RE), medial crease (MC), curvature of lateral border (CLB), and lateral head of talus (LHT). Interobserver variability was calculated using kappa statistic for each of these signs and was judged as poor (0.00–0.20), fair (0.21–0.40), moderate (0.41–0.60), substantial (0.61–0.80), or almost perfect (0.81–1.00). Results: The mean age was 137 days (range 21-335) days. The mean Pirani score was 3.86. We found the overall consistency to be substantial for overall score (total score kappa - 0.71) and also for midfoot (0.68) and hindfoot (0

  17. Colon cancer with unresectable synchronous metastases: the AAAP scoring system for predicting the outcome after primary tumour resection.

    PubMed

    Li, Z M; Peng, Y F; Du, C Z; Gu, J

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic scoring system to predict the outcome of patients with unresectable metastatic colon cancer who received primary colon tumour resection. Patients with confirmed metastatic colon cancer treated at the Peking University Cancer Hospital between 2003 and 2012 were reviewed retrospectively. The correlation of clinicopathological factors with overall survival was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. Independent prognostic factors were identified using a Cox proportional hazards regression model and were then combined to form a prognostic scoring system. A total of 110 eligible patients were included in the study. The median survival time was 10.4 months and the 2-year overall survival (OS) rate was 21.8%. Age over 70 years, an alkaline phosphatase (ALP) level over 160 IU/l, ascites, a platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) above 162 and no postoperative therapy were independently associated with a shorter OS in multivariate analysis. Age, ALP, ascites and PLR were subsequently combined to form the so-called AAAP scoring system. Patients were classified into high, medium and low risk groups according to the score obtained. There were significant differences in OS between each group (P < 0.001). Age, ALP, ascites, PLR and postoperative therapy were independent prognostic factors for survival of patients with metastatic colonic cancer who underwent primary tumour resection. The AAAP scoring system may be a useful tool for surgical decision making. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  18. Prognostic discrimination for early chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia in imatinib era: comparison of Sokal, Euro, and EUTOS scores in Korean population.

    PubMed

    Yahng, Seung-Ah; Jang, Eun-Jung; Choi, Soo-Young; Lee, Sung-Eun; Kim, Soo-Hyun; Kim, Dong-Wook

    2014-08-01

    Beyond the conventional Sokal and Euro scores, a new prognostic risk classification, based on the European Treatment Outcome Study (EUTOS), has been developed to predict the outcome of treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). In the present study, each risk score was validated by various endpoints in 206 Korean patients with early chronic-phase CML treated with up-front standard dose imatinib. In our analysis, all three scores were found to be valid. The 5-year event-free survival (EFS) was significantly discriminated using Sokal (P = 0.002), Euro (P = 0.003), and EUTOS (P = 0.029), with the worst probability by Euro high-risk (62 vs. 49 vs. 67 %) and better EFS in Sokal low-risk (89 vs. 86 vs. 82 %). Combining all scores identified 6 % of all patients having homogeneous high-risk with distinctively worse outcomes (5-year EFS of 41 %, cumulative complete cytogenetic response rate of 56 %, and cumulative major molecular response rate of 27 %), whereas the group of discordance in risk scores (60 %) had similar results to those of intermediate-risk groups of Sokal and Euro scores. Combining all risk scores for baseline risk assessment may be useful in clinical practice for identifying groups of patients who may benefit from treatment initiation with a more potent TKI among the currently available first-line TKIs.

  19. The prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based prognostic scores and nutritional status for overall survival in resected patients with nonmetastatic Siewert type II/III adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Lixiang; Su, Yezhou; Chen, Zhangming; Wei, Zhijian; Han, Wenxiu; Xu, Aman

    2017-07-01

    Immune and nutritional status of patients have been reported to predict postoperative complications, recurrence, and prognosis of patients with cancer. Therefore, this retrospective study aimed to explore the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based prognostic scores [neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR)] and nutritional status [prognostic nutritional index (PNI), body mass index (BMI), hemoglobin, albumin, and prealbumin] for overall survival (OS) in adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction (AEG) patients. A total of 355 patients diagnosed with Siewert type II/III AEG and underwent surgery between October 2010 and December 2011 were followed up until October 2016. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the cutoff values of NLR, PLR, and PNI. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analyses were used to calculate the OS characteristics. The ideal cutoff values for predicting OS were 3.5 for NLR, 171 for PLR, and 51.3 for PNI according to the ROC curve. The patients with hemoglobin <120 g/L (P = .001), prealbumin <180 mg/L (P = .000), PNI <51.3 (P = .010), NLR >3.5 (P = .000), PLR >171 (P = .006), and low BMI group (P = .000) had shorter OS. And multivariate survival analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model showed that the tumor-node-metastasis stage, BMI, NLR, and prealbumin levels were independent risk factors for the OS. Our study demonstrated that preoperative prealbumin, BMI, and NLR were independent prognostic factors of AEG patients.

  20. Retrospective Evaluation of New Chinese Diagnostic Scoring System for Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation

    PubMed Central

    Deng, Jun; Wang, Huafang; Guo, Tao; Mei, Heng; Hu, Yu

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To retrospectively validate the new Chinese DIC scoring system (CDSS). Methods This study retrospectively collected the information of 619 patients (371 cases with non-hematologic malignancies, 248 cases with hematologic malignancies) who suspected of DIC in Wuhan Union Hospital during 2013-4 to 2014-6. We validated CDSS by comparing it with three leading scoring systems, from International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH), Japanese Association for Acute Medicine (JAAM) and Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare (JMHW), and evaluated its prognostic value by 28 days mortality, APACHE II and SOFA score. Results In non-hematologic malignancies, CDSS was more specific than JAAM (72.55% vs. 50.49%, p<0.05) and more sensitive than ISTH (77.07% vs. 62.03%, p<0.05). In hematologic malignancies, the area under the ROC curve of CDSS was larger than ISTH and JMHW (0.933 vs. 0.889, p<0.01 with ISTH, 0.944 vs. 0.845, p<0.01 with JMHW). In addition, the 28-day mortality rate, SOFA scores, APACHE II scores of DIC patients diagnosed by CDSS were significantly greater than non-DIC (P <0.05). Conclusions We are the first group to propose CDSS. It emphasized the values of the clinical manifestations, the rapidly declining platelet count, APTT in the diagnosis of DIC and used D-dimer as the fibrin-related maker. DIC with hematological malignancies was treated as a special part. In this study we can see that CDSS displayed an acceptable property for the diagnosis of DIC with appropriate sensitivity and specificity, and also had a good prognostic value for DIC patients. PMID:26076032

  1. Validation of a new scoring system: Rapid assessment faecal incontinence score.

    PubMed

    de la Portilla, Fernando; Calero-Lillo, Arantxa; Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rosa M; Reyes, Maria L; Segovia-González, Manuela; Maestre, María Victoria; García-Cabrera, Ana M

    2015-09-27

    To implement a quick and simple test - rapid assessment faecal incontinence score (RAFIS) and show its reliability and validity. From March 2008 through March 2010, we evaluated a total of 261 consecutive patients, including 53 patients with faecal incontinence. Demographic and comorbidity information was collected. In a single visit, patients were administered the RAFIS. The results obtained with the new score were compared with those of both Wexner score and faecal incontinence quality of life scale (FIQL) questionnaire. The patient without influence of the surgeon completed the test. The role of surgeon was explaining the meaning of each section and how he had to fill. Reliability of the RAFIS score was measured using intra-observer agreement and Cronbach's alpha (internal consistency) coefficient. Multivariate analysis of the main components within the different scores was performed in order to determine whether all the scores measured the same factor and to conclude whether the information could be encompassed in a single factor. A sample size of 50 patients with faecal incontinence was estimated to be enough to detect a correlation of 0.55 or better at 5% level of significance with 80% power. We analysed the results obtained by 53 consecutive patients with faecal incontinence (median age 61.55 ± 12.49 years) in the three scoring systems. A total of 208 healthy volunteers (median age 58.41 ± 18.41 years) without faecal incontinence were included in the study as negative controls. Pearson's correlation coefficient between "state" and "leaks" was excellent (r = 0.92, P < 0.005). Internal consistency in the comparison of "state" and "leaks" yielded also excellent correlation (Cronbach's α = 0.93). Results in each score were compared using regression analysis and a correlation value of r = 0.98 was obtained with Wexner score. As regards FIQL questionnaire, the values of "r" for the different subscales of the questionnaire were: "lifestyle" r = -0.87, "coping

  2. Validation of a new scoring system: Rapid assessment faecal incontinence score

    PubMed Central

    de la Portilla, Fernando; Calero-Lillo, Arantxa; Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rosa M; Reyes, Maria L; Segovia-González, Manuela; Maestre, María Victoria; García-Cabrera, Ana M

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To implement a quick and simple test - rapid assessment faecal incontinence score (RAFIS) and show its reliability and validity. METHODS: From March 2008 through March 2010, we evaluated a total of 261 consecutive patients, including 53 patients with faecal incontinence. Demographic and comorbidity information was collected. In a single visit, patients were administered the RAFIS. The results obtained with the new score were compared with those of both Wexner score and faecal incontinence quality of life scale (FIQL) questionnaire. The patient without influence of the surgeon completed the test. The role of surgeon was explaining the meaning of each section and how he had to fill. Reliability of the RAFIS score was measured using intra-observer agreement and Cronbach’s alpha (internal consistency) coefficient. Multivariate analysis of the main components within the different scores was performed in order to determine whether all the scores measured the same factor and to conclude whether the information could be encompassed in a single factor. A sample size of 50 patients with faecal incontinence was estimated to be enough to detect a correlation of 0.55 or better at 5% level of significance with 80% power. RESULTS: We analysed the results obtained by 53 consecutive patients with faecal incontinence (median age 61.55 ± 12.49 years) in the three scoring systems. A total of 208 healthy volunteers (median age 58.41 ± 18.41 years) without faecal incontinence were included in the study as negative controls. Pearson’s correlation coefficient between “state” and “leaks” was excellent (r = 0.92, P < 0.005). Internal consistency in the comparison of “state” and “leaks” yielded also excellent correlation (Cronbach’s α = 0.93). Results in each score were compared using regression analysis and a correlation value of r = 0.98 was obtained with Wexner score. As regards FIQL questionnaire, the values of “r” for the different subscales of the

  3. Development and validation of a surgical-pathologic staging and scoring system for cervical cancer

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Hang; Tang, Fangxu; Jia, Yao; Hu, Ting; Sun, Haiying; Yang, Ru; Chen, Yile; Cheng, Xiaodong; Lv, Weiguo; Wu, Li; Zhou, Jin; Wang, Shaoshuai; Huang, Kecheng; Wang, Lin; Yao, Yuan; Yang, Qifeng; Yang, Xingsheng; Zhang, Qinghua; Han, Xiaobing; Lin, Zhongqiu; Xing, Hui; Qu, Pengpeng; Cai, Hongbing; Song, Xiaojie; Tian, Xiaoyu; Shen, Jian; Xi, Ling; Li, Kezhen; Deng, Dongrui; Wang, Hui; Wang, Changyu; Wu, Mingfu; Zhu, Tao; Chen, Gang; Gao, Qinglei; Wang, Shixuan; Hu, Junbo; Kong, Beihua; Xie, Xing; Ma, Ding

    2016-01-01

    Background Most cervical cancer patients worldwide receive surgical treatments, and yet the current International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system do not consider surgical-pathologic data. We propose a more comprehensive and prognostically valuable surgical-pathologic staging and scoring system (SPSs). Methods Records from 4,220 eligible cervical cancer cases (Cohort 1) were screened for surgical-pathologic risk factors. We constructed a surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs, which was subsequently validated in a prospective study of 1,104 cervical cancer patients (Cohort 2). Results In Cohort 1, seven independent risk factors were associated with patient outcome: lymph node metastasis (LNM), parametrial involvement, histological type, grade, tumor size, stromal invasion, and lymph-vascular space invasion (LVSI). The FIGO staging system was revised and expanded into a surgical-pathologic staging system by including additional criteria of LNM, stromal invasion, and LVSI. LNM was subdivided into three categories based on number and location of metastases. Inclusion of all seven prognostic risk factors improves practical applicability. Patients were stratified into three SPSs risk categories: zero-, low-, and high-score with scores of 0, 1 to 3, and ≥4 (P=1.08E-45; P=6.15E-55). In Cohort 2, 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) outcomes decreased with increased SPSs scores (P=9.04E-15; P=3.23E-16), validating the approach. Surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs show greater homogeneity and discriminatory utility than FIGO staging. Conclusions Surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs improve characterization of tumor severity and disease invasion, which may more accurately predict outcome and guide postoperative therapy. PMID:27014971

  4. Development and validation of a surgical-pathologic staging and scoring system for cervical cancer.

    PubMed

    Li, Shuang; Li, Xiong; Zhang, Yuan; Zhou, Hang; Tang, Fangxu; Jia, Yao; Hu, Ting; Sun, Haiying; Yang, Ru; Chen, Yile; Cheng, Xiaodong; Lv, Weiguo; Wu, Li; Zhou, Jin; Wang, Shaoshuai; Huang, Kecheng; Wang, Lin; Yao, Yuan; Yang, Qifeng; Yang, Xingsheng; Zhang, Qinghua; Han, Xiaobing; Lin, Zhongqiu; Xing, Hui; Qu, Pengpeng; Cai, Hongbing; Song, Xiaojie; Tian, Xiaoyu; Shen, Jian; Xi, Ling; Li, Kezhen; Deng, Dongrui; Wang, Hui; Wang, Changyu; Wu, Mingfu; Zhu, Tao; Chen, Gang; Gao, Qinglei; Wang, Shixuan; Hu, Junbo; Kong, Beihua; Xie, Xing; Ma, Ding

    2016-04-12

    Most cervical cancer patients worldwide receive surgical treatments, and yet the current International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system do not consider surgical-pathologic data. We propose a more comprehensive and prognostically valuable surgical-pathologic staging and scoring system (SPSs). Records from 4,220 eligible cervical cancer cases (Cohort 1) were screened for surgical-pathologic risk factors. We constructed a surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs, which was subsequently validated in a prospective study of 1,104 cervical cancer patients (Cohort 2). In Cohort 1, seven independent risk factors were associated with patient outcome: lymph node metastasis (LNM), parametrial involvement, histological type, grade, tumor size, stromal invasion, and lymph-vascular space invasion (LVSI). The FIGO staging system was revised and expanded into a surgical-pathologic staging system by including additional criteria of LNM, stromal invasion, and LVSI. LNM was subdivided into three categories based on number and location of metastases. Inclusion of all seven prognostic risk factors improves practical applicability. Patients were stratified into three SPSs risk categories: zero-, low-, and high-score with scores of 0, 1 to 3, and ≥4 (P=1.08E-45; P=6.15E-55). In Cohort 2, 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) outcomes decreased with increased SPSs scores (P=9.04E-15; P=3.23E-16), validating the approach. Surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs show greater homogeneity and discriminatory utility than FIGO staging. Surgical-pathologic staging and SPSs improve characterization of tumor severity and disease invasion, which may more accurately predict outcome and guide postoperative therapy.

  5. Nutritional Risk in Major Abdominal Surgery: Protocol of a Prospective Observational Trial to Evaluate the Prognostic Value of Different Nutritional Scores in Pancreatic Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Probst, Pascal; Haller, Sebastian; Dörr-Harim, Colette; Bruckner, Thomas; Ulrich, Alexis; Hackert, Thilo; Diener, Markus K

    2015-01-01

    Background The influence of patients’ preoperative nutritional status on their clinical outcome has already been proven. Therefore, patients with malnutrition are in need of additional therapeutic efforts. However, for pancreatic surgery, evidence suggesting the adequacy of existing nutritional assessment scores to estimate malnutrition associated with postoperative outcome is limited. Objective The aim of the observational trial “Nutritional Risk in Major Abdominal Surgery (NURIMAS) Pancreas” is to prospectively assess and analyze different nutritional assessment scores for their prognostic value on postoperative complications in patients undergoing pancreatic surgery. Methods All patients scheduled to receive elective pancreatic surgery at the University Hospital of Heidelberg will be screened for eligibility. Preoperatively, 12 nutritional assessment scores will be collected and patients will be assigned either at risk or not at risk for malnutrition. The postoperative course will be followed prospectively and complications according to the Clavien-Dindo classification will be recorded. The prognostic value for complications will be evaluated for every score in a univariable and multivariable analysis corrected for known risk factors in pancreatic surgery. Results Final data analysis is expected to be available during Spring 2016. Conclusions The NURIMAS Pancreas trial is a monocentric, prospective, observational trial aiming to find the most predictive clinical nutritional assessment score for postoperative complications. Using the results of this protocol as a knowledge base, it is possible to conduct nutritional risk-guided intervention trials to prevent postoperative complications in the pancreatic surgical population. Trial Registration germanctr.de: DRKS00006340; https://drks-neu.uniklinik-freiburg.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00006340 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6bzXWSRYZ) PMID:26573991

  6. Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index Predicts Prognosis of Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Propensity Score-matched Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Geng, Yiting; Shao, Yingjie; Zhu, Danxia; Zheng, Xiao; Zhou, Qi; Zhou, Wenjie; Ni, Xuefeng; Wu, Changping; Jiang, Jingting

    2016-01-01

    Systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), based on peripheral lymphocyte, neutrophil, and platelet counts, was recently investigated as a prognostic marker in several tumors. However, SII has not been reported in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We evaluated the prognostic value of the SII in 916 patients with ESCC who underwent radical surgery. Univariate and multivariate analyses were calculated by the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to compare the discrimination ability for OS. PSM (propensity score matching) was carried out to imbalance the baseline characteristics. Our results showed that SII, PLR, NLR and MLR were all associated with OS in ESCC patients in the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. However, only SII was an independent risk factor for OS (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.53, P = 0.042) among these systemic inflammation scores. The AUC for SII was bigger than PLR, NLR and MLR. In the PSM analysis, SII still remained an independent predictor for OS (HR = 1.30, CI 1.05–1.60, P = 0.018). SII is a novel, simple and inexpensive prognostic predictor for patients with ESCC undergoing radical esophagectomy. The prognostic value of SII is superior to PLR, NLR and MLR. PMID:28000729

  7. Recommendations for the use of chemoembolization in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Usefulness of scoring system?

    PubMed Central

    Adhoute, Xavier; Penaranda, Guillaume; Castellani, Paul; Perrier, Herve; Bourliere, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Several hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) staging systems have been established, and a variety of country-specific treatment strategies are also proposed. The barcelona - clinic liver cancer (BCLC) system is the most widely used in Europe. The Hong Kong liver Cancer is a new prognostic staging system; it might become the reference system in Asia. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the most widely used treatment for HCC worldwide; but it showed a benefit only for intermediate stage HCC (BCLC B), and there is still no consensus concerning treatment methods and treatment strategies. In view of the highly diverse nature of HCC and practices, a scoring system designed to assist with decision making before the first TACE is performed or prior to repeating the procedure would be highly useful. PMID:25848475

  8. Establishment and Validation of GV-SAPS II Scoring System for Non-Diabetic Critically Ill Patients

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Wen-Yue; Lin, Shi-Gang; Zhu, Gui-Qi; Poucke, Sven Van; Braddock, Martin; Zhang, Zhongheng; Mao, Zhi; Shen, Fei-Xia

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims Recently, glucose variability (GV) has been reported as an independent risk factor for mortality in non-diabetic critically ill patients. However, GV is not incorporated in any severity scoring system for critically ill patients currently. The aim of this study was to establish and validate a modified Simplified Acute Physiology Score II scoring system (SAPS II), integrated with GV parameters and named GV-SAPS II, specifically for non-diabetic critically ill patients to predict short-term and long-term mortality. Methods Training and validation cohorts were exacted from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care database III version 1.3 (MIMIC-III v1.3). The GV-SAPS II score was constructed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and compared with the original SAPS II, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment Score (SOFA) and Elixhauser scoring systems using area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic (auROC) curve. Results 4,895 and 5,048 eligible individuals were included in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The GV-SAPS II score was established with four independent risk factors, including hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, standard deviation of blood glucose levels (GluSD), and SAPS II score. In the validation cohort, the auROC values of the new scoring system were 0.824 (95% CI: 0.813–0.834, P< 0.001) and 0.738 (95% CI: 0.725–0.750, P< 0.001), respectively for 30 days and 9 months, which were significantly higher than other models used in our study (all P < 0.001). Moreover, Kaplan-Meier plots demonstrated significantly worse outcomes in higher GV-SAPS II score groups both for 30-day and 9-month mortality endpoints (all P< 0.001). Conclusions We established and validated a modified prognostic scoring system that integrated glucose variability for non-diabetic critically ill patients, named GV-SAPS II. It demonstrated a superior prognostic capability and may be an optimal scoring system

  9. [Validation of a diagnostic scoring system (Ohmann score) in acute appendicitis].

    PubMed

    Zielke, A; Sitter, H; Rampp, T A; Schäfer, E; Hasse, C; Lorenz, W; Rothmund, M

    1999-07-01

    A diagnostic scoring system, recently published by Ohmann et al. in this journal, was validated by analyzing the clinicopathological data of a consecutive series of 2,359 patients, admitted for suspicion of acute appendicitis. The results of the scoring system were compared to the results of clinical evaluation by junior (provisional) and senior surgeons (final clinical diagnosis). To assess the diagnostic ability of the score, the accuracy and positive predictive value were defined as the major diagnostic performance parameters; the rate of theoretical negative laparotomies and that of diagnostic errors served as the major procedural performance parameters. Of 2,359 patients admitted for suspected acute appendicitis, 662 were proven to have acute appendicitis by histology, for a prevalence of 28%. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of the provisional clinical diagnosis were 0.50, 0.94, 0.77, 0.83, and 0.82; 0.93, for the score 0.63, 0.93, 0.77, 0.86 and 0.84, and for the final clinical diagnosis 0.90, 0.94, 0.85, 0.96, and 0.93, respectively. Of the main diagnostic performance parameter, the accuracy of the score was significantly better than that of provisional clinical diagnosis (P < 0.05, chi 2 test). The score yielded a rate of negative appendecomies and laparotomies of 14.3 and 12.3%. With respect to the rate of overlooked cases of acute apendicitis, the score demonstrated a superior performance, with only 6 cases missed (0.9%). However, the number of patients with acute appendicitis, including those with perforated disease, who were not identified by the score, was almost four times that of the final clinical diagnosis (245 vs 63). With regard to the main procedural performance parameter, the score resulted in a significantly smaller number of diagnostic errors than the provisional clinical investigator (P < 0.05, chi 2 test). The results of this study indicate that the diagnostic scoring

  10. The pretreatment Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score is an independent prognostic factor in patients with resectable thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: results from a retrospective study.

    PubMed

    Toyokawa, Takahiro; Kubo, Naoshi; Tamura, Tatsuro; Sakurai, Katsunobu; Amano, Ryosuke; Tanaka, Hiroaki; Muguruma, Kazuya; Yashiro, Masakazu; Hirakawa, Kosei; Ohira, Masaichi

    2016-09-06

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score on survival compared with the platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) in patients with resectable thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). One hundred eighty-five consecutive patients who underwent subtotal esophagectomy with curative intent for resectable thoracic ESCC were retrospectively reviewed. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analyses for 3-year overall survival (OS) as the endpoint were performed, and the maximal Youden indices were calculated to assess discrimination ability and to determine the appropriate cut-off values of CONUT, PLR, and NLR. The patients were then classified into high and low groups based on these cut-off values. Correlations between CONUT and other clinicopathological characteristics were analyzed. Prognostic factors predicting overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. The areas under the curve predicting 3-year OS were 0.603 for CONUT, 0.561 for PLR, 0.564 for NLR, and 0.563 for GPS. The optimal cut-off values were two for the CONUT score, 193 for PLR, and 3.612 for NLR. The high-CONUT group was significantly associated with lower BMI, high-PLR, high-NLR, and GPS1/2 groups. On univariate analysis, high-CONUT, high-PLR, high-NLR, and GPS 1/2 groups were significantly associated with poorer OS and RFS. Of these factors, multivariate analysis revealed that only the CONUT score was an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR 2.303, 95 % CI 1.191-4.455; p = 0.013) and RFS (HR 2.163, 95 % CI 1.139-4.109; p = 0.018). The CONUT score was an independent predictor of OS and RFS before treatment and was superior to PLR, NLR, and GPS in terms of predictive ability for prognosis in patients with resectable thoracic ESCC.

  11. Empirical Mode Decomposition Based Features for Diagnosis and Prognostics of Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-04-01

    bearing fault diagnosis – their effectiveness and flexibilities. Journal of Vibration and Acoustics July 2001, ASME. 3. Staszewski, W. J. Structural...Empirical Mode Decomposition Based Features for Diagnosis and Prognostics of Systems by Hiralal Khatri, Kenneth Ranney, Kwok Tom, and Romeo...Laboratory Adelphi, MD 20783-1197 ARL-TR-4301 April 2008 Empirical Mode Decomposition Based Features for Diagnosis and Prognostics of Systems

  12. A 4-gene expression score associated with high levels of Wilms Tumor-1 (WT1) expression is an adverse prognostic factor in acute myeloid leukaemia.

    PubMed

    Niavarani, Ahmadreza; Herold, Tobias; Reyal, Yasmin; Sauerland, Maria C; Buchner, Thomas; Hiddemann, Wolfgang; Bohlander, Stefan K; Valk, Peter J M; Bonnet, Dominique

    2016-02-01

    Wilms Tumor-1 (WT1) expression level is implicated in the prognosis of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). We hypothesized that a gene expression profile associated with WT1 expression levels might be a good surrogate marker. We identified high WT1 gene sets by comparing the gene expression profiles in the highest and lowest quartiles of WT1 expression in two large AML studies. Two high WT1 gene sets were found to be highly correlated in terms of the altered genes and expression profiles. We identified a 17-probe set signature of the high WT1 set as the optimal prognostic predictor in the first AML set, and showed that it was able to predict prognosis in the second AML series after adjustment for European LeukaemiaNet genetic groups. The gene signature also proved to be of prognostic value in a third AML series of 163 samples assessed by RNA sequencing, demonstrating its cross-platform consistency. This led us to derive a 4-gene expression score, which faithfully predicted adverse outcome. In conclusion, a short gene signature associated with high WT1 expression levels and the resultant 4-gene expression score were found to be predictive of adverse prognosis in AML. This study provides new clues to the molecular pathways underlying high WT1 states in leukaemia. © 2015 The Authors. British Journal of Haematology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Accuracy of harm scores entered into an event reporting system.

    PubMed

    Abbasi, Toni; Adornetto-Garcia, Debra; Johnston, Patricia A; Segovia, Julie H; Summers, Barbara

    2015-04-01

    This quality improvement project evaluated the accuracy of harm scores entered into an event reporting system by inpatient nursing staff at a National Cancer Institute-designated comprehensive cancer center. Nurses scored 10 safety scenarios using 2 versions of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality scale to determine interrater reliability. Results indicated inconsistency in the way nurses scored the scenarios, suggesting that the event reporting system may not accurately portray the severity of harm in patient safety events. Nurse executives can use this information to guide the development and implementation of incident reporting systems.

  14. Prospective trial to evaluate the prognostic value of different nutritional assessment scores in pancreatic surgery (NURIMAS Pancreas).

    PubMed

    Probst, P; Haller, S; Bruckner, T; Ulrich, A; Strobel, O; Hackert, T; Diener, M K; Büchler, M W; Knebel, P

    2017-07-01

    Preoperative nutritional status has an impact on patients' clinical outcome. For pancreatic surgery, however, it is unclear which nutritional assessment scores adequately assess malnutrition associated with postoperative outcome. Patients scheduled for elective pancreatic surgery at the University of Heidelberg were screened for eligibility. Twelve nutritional assessment scores were calculated before operation, and patients were categorized as either at risk or not at risk for malnutrition by each score. The postoperative course was monitored prospectively by assessors blinded to the nutritional status. The primary endpoint was major complications evaluated for each score in a multivariable analysis corrected for known risk factors in pancreatic surgery. Overall, 279 patients were analysed. A major complication occurred in 61 patients (21·9 per cent). The proportion of malnourished patients differed greatly among the scores, from 1·1 per cent (Nutritional Risk Index) to 79·6 per cent (Nutritional Risk Classification). In the multivariable analysis, only raised amylase level in drainage fluid on postoperative day 1 (odds ratio (OR) 4·91, 95 per cent c.i. 1·10 to 21·84; P = 0·037) and age (OR 1·05, 1·02 to 1·09; P = 0·005) were significantly associated with major complications; none of the scores was associated with, or predicted, postoperative complications. None of the nutritional assessment scores defined malnutrition relevant to complications after pancreatic surgery and these scores may thus be abandoned. © 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Particle filter based hybrid prognostics for health monitoring of uncertain systems in bond graph framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jha, Mayank Shekhar; Dauphin-Tanguy, G.; Ould-Bouamama, B.

    2016-06-01

    The paper's main objective is to address the problem of health monitoring of system parameters in Bond Graph (BG) modeling framework, by exploiting its structural and causal properties. The system in feedback control loop is considered uncertain globally. Parametric uncertainty is modeled in interval form. The system parameter is undergoing degradation (prognostic candidate) and its degradation model is assumed to be known a priori. The detection of degradation commencement is done in a passive manner which involves interval valued robust adaptive thresholds over the nominal part of the uncertain BG-derived interval valued analytical redundancy relations (I-ARRs). The latter forms an efficient diagnostic module. The prognostics problem is cast as joint state-parameter estimation problem, a hybrid prognostic approach, wherein the fault model is constructed by considering the statistical degradation model of the system parameter (prognostic candidate). The observation equation is constructed from nominal part of the I-ARR. Using particle filter (PF) algorithms; the estimation of state of health (state of prognostic candidate) and associated hidden time-varying degradation progression parameters is achieved in probabilistic terms. A simplified variance adaptation scheme is proposed. Associated uncertainties which arise out of noisy measurements, parametric degradation process, environmental conditions etc. are effectively managed by PF. This allows the production of effective predictions of the remaining useful life of the prognostic candidate with suitable confidence bounds. The effectiveness of the novel methodology is demonstrated through simulations and experiments on a mechatronic system.

  16. Incremental prognostic value of the SYNTAX score to late gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance images for patients with stable coronary artery disease.

    PubMed

    Kato, Shingo; Saito, Naka; Kirigaya, Hidekuni; Gyotoku, Daiki; Iinuma, Naoki; Kusakawa, Yuka; Iguchi, Kohei; Nakachi, Tatsuya; Fukui, Kazuki; Futaki, Masaaki; Iwasawa, Tae; Taguri, Masataka; Kimura, Kazuo; Umemura, Satoshi

    2016-06-01

    The prognostic significance of the SYNTAX (Synergy between PCI with Taxus and cardiac surgery) score has recently been demonstrated in patients with stable multivessel or left main coronary artery disease (CAD). The present study determines whether adding the SYNTAX score to Framingham risk score (FRS), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and presence of myocardial infarction (MI) by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) magnetic resonance imaging can improve the risk stratification in patients with stable CAD. We calculated the SYNTAX score in 161 patients with stable CAD (mean age: 66 ± 10 years old). During a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, 56 (35 %) of 161 patients developed cardiovascular events defined as cardiovascular death, non-fatal MI, cerebral infarction, unstable angina pectoris, hospitalization due to heart failure and revascularization. Multivariate Cox regression analysis selected triglycerides [hazard ratio (HR): 1.005 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.001-1.008), p < 0.008], presence of LGE [HR: 6.329 (95 % CI: 2.662-15.05), p < 0.001] and the SYNTAX score [HR: 1.085 (95 % CI: 1.044-1.127), p < 0.001] as risk factors for future cardiovascular events. Adding the SYNTAX score to FRS, EF and LGE significantly improved the net reclassification index (NRI) [40.4 % (95 % CI: 18.1-54.8 %), p < 0.05] with an increase in C-statistics of 0.089 (from 0.707 to 0.796). An increase in C-statistics and significant improvement of NRI showed that adding the SYNTAX score to the FRS, LVEF and LGE incrementally improved risk stratification in patient with stable CAD.

  17. Performance evaluation of MR-proadrenomedullin and other scoring systems in severe sepsis with pneumonia

    PubMed Central

    Rollas, Kazım; Alagöz, Ali; Seğmen, Fatih; Sipit, Tuğrul

    2014-01-01

    Background In sepsis, risk assessment is as crucial as early and accurate diagnosis. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of mid-regional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) with other scoring systems in severe sepsis and septic shock patients due to community acquired pneumonia (CAP). Methods Patients were divided into 2 groups as severe sepsis and septic shock due to CAP (group 1, n=31) and only CAP group (group 2, n=26). Serum MR-proADM, procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and d-dimer level were analyzed. Acute Physiological and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, and Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) were performed for all patients. Results There was no difference between groups in terms of serum MR-proADM levels (P=0.780). Serum MR-proADM was not found a significant value for the prediction of death within the 4 and 8 weeks in all patients. SOFA score was the most significant to predict mortality in 4 and 8 weeks (P<0.001). The combination of SOFA score and serum MR-proADM was a strong factor to predict death in 4 weeks (specifity 86.8% and sensitivity 66.7%). The combination of MR-proADM, SOFA score, and APACHE II score was found 75.0% sensitive and 71.4% specific to predict mortality within 4 weeks in group 1. Conclusions The MR-proADM does not correlate with mortality or disease severity to predict mortality. The combination of SOFA, APACHE II scores, and MR-proADM was efficient to predict prognosis and mortality rate in severe sepsis or septic shock patients. PMID:25093088

  18. A review on prognostic techniques for non-stationary and non-linear rotating systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kan, Man Shan; Tan, Andy C. C.; Mathew, Joseph

    2015-10-01

    The field of prognostics has attracted significant interest from the research community in recent times. Prognostics enables the prediction of failures in machines resulting in benefits to plant operators such as shorter downtimes, higher operation reliability, reduced operations and maintenance cost, and more effective maintenance and logistics planning. Prognostic systems have been successfully deployed for the monitoring of relatively simple rotating machines. However, machines and associated systems today are increasingly complex. As such, there is an urgent need to develop prognostic techniques for such complex systems operating in the real world. This review paper focuses on prognostic techniques that can be applied to rotating machinery operating under non-linear and non-stationary conditions. The general concept of these techniques, the pros and cons of applying these methods, as well as their applications in the research field are discussed. Finally, the opportunities and challenges in implementing prognostic systems and developing effective techniques for monitoring machines operating under non-stationary and non-linear conditions are also discussed.

  19. Endoscopic scoring systems for inflammatory bowel disease: pros and cons.

    PubMed

    Tontini, Gian Eugenio; Bisschops, Raf; Neumann, Helmut

    2014-07-01

    Endoscopy plays a pivotal role for diagnosis and assessment of disease activity and extent in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases. International guidelines recommend the use of endoscopic scoring systems for evaluation of the prognosis and efficacy of medical treatments. Ideal scoring systems are easy to use, reproducible, reliable, responsive to changes, and validated in different clinical settings in order to guide therapeutic strategies. However, currently available endoscopic scoring systems often appear as complex for routine endoscopy and suffer from insufficient interobserver agreement and lack of formal validation which often limit their use in clinical trials. Here, we describe the role of endoscopic scoring systems in inflammatory bowel diseases focusing on pros and cons in the era of advanced endoscopic imaging and mucosal healing.

  20. Diagnostic scoring system of Hirschsprung's disease in the neonatal period.

    PubMed

    Guo, Weihong; Zhang, Qinming; Chen, Yongwei; Hou, Dawei

    2006-07-01

    Eighty to ninety percent of Hirschsprung's disease (HD) patients present in newborns. However, the diagnosis of HD in the neonatal period remains difficult. Our present study aims to propose a diagnostic scoring system and hope this will increase early diagnosis of HD and avoid unnecessary rectal biopsy. In the first study period, 57 suspected HD patients (0-3 months) completed our predetermined study protocol in which barium enema (BE), rectal manometry (RM) and full-thickness rectal biopsy were performed. Symptoms, signs and investigations were analysed for their correlation with HD diagnosis. A HD diagnostic scoring system was developed according to the statistical results and was assessed in 74 patients in the second study period. Forty-five patients were diagnosed with HD in the first study period. A HD scoring system was developed in which delayed meconium, tight anus, BE and RM were diagnostic factors. A cut-off point of 3 provided 84% of HD patients score >3, whereas 75% non-HD patients score score scoring system may help to select patients for further invasive investigation so that unnecessary biopsy can be avoided.

  1. A simplified cystic fibrosis scoring system (a preliminary report)

    PubMed Central

    Cooperman, E. M.; Park, M.; McKee, J.; Assad, J. P.

    1971-01-01

    The inherent variability in the natural severity of cystic fibrosis (CF) makes each aspect of therapy of this condition difficult to isolate and to evaluate objectively. There is little hope of resolving the problems which arise as a result until a way of measuring the severity of the disease at any one point in time is devised. We present a simplified CF scoring system (analogous to the Apgar scoring system for the newborn) based on five simple measurements. PMID:5118677

  2. Prognostic value of different staging systems in neuroblastomas and completeness of tumour excision.

    PubMed Central

    Carlsen, N L; Christensen, I J; Schroeder, H; Bro, P V; Hesselbjerg, U; Jensen, K B; Nielsen, O H

    1986-01-01

    Two hundred and fifty three patients were retrospectively assigned to eight different staging systems proposed for neuroblastomas, and the prognostic value of each staging system was evaluated individually. The ability of each system to predict prognosis was compared with the others and the system proposed by Evans et al found to be the best predictor, even better than the recently proposed Tumour-Nodes-Metastases staging system. This is probably due to the fact that factors other than the resectability of the tumour play a major role in the survival of these children. Age was found to have independent prognostic significance whatever staging system was used. PMID:3767412

  3. Changes and their prognostic implications in the abbreviated Vitalpac™ early warning score (ViEWS) after admission to hospital of 18,853 acutely ill medical patients.

    PubMed

    Kellett, John; Woodworth, Simon; Wang, Fei; Huang, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    The best performing early warning score is Vitalpac™ Early Warning Score (ViEWS). However, it is not known how often, to what extent and over what time frame any early warning scores change, and what the implications of these changes are. Thunder Bay Regional Health Sciences Center, Ontario, Canada. The changes in the first three complete sets of the six variables required to retrospectively calculate the abbreviated version of ViEWS (that did not include mental status) after admission to hospital of 18,853 acutely ill medical patients, and their relationship to subsequent in-hospital mortality were examined. In the 10.4 SD 20.1 (median 5.0) hours between admission and the second recording the score changed in only 5.9% of patients and these changes were of no prognostic value. By the time of the third recording 34.9 SD 21.7 (median 30.0) hours after admission a change in score was clearly associated with a corresponding change in in-hospital mortality (e.g. for patients with an initial score of 5 an increase between the first and third recording of ≥4 points was associated with an increased mortality (OR 6.5 95% CI 2.3-15.9, p<0.00001), whereas a reduction of ≤-4 points was associated with a reduced mortality (OR 0.4 95% CI 0.2-0.9, p 0.03)). After a median interval of 30 h both the initial abbreviated ViEWS recording and subsequent changes in it both predict clinical outcome. It remains to be determined what interventions during this time frame will improve patient outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Scoring systems of quantitative bone scanning in prostate cancer: historical overview, current status and future perspectives.

    PubMed

    Zafeirakis, Athanasios

    2014-01-01

    Whole-body bone scintigraphy using technetium-99m-methylene-diphosphonate ((99m)Tc-MDP) is the most widely used radionuclide imaging modality applied in patients with prostate cancer. With this technique, the choice of methods to estimate the extend of the metastatic disease on the skeletal system includes various different approaches, classified in two main categories: First, the quantitative measurements of tracer uptake, defined either as the percentage of the injected dose of tracer, or as the more complicated plasma clearance techniques and second, the various semi-quantitative scoring systems of the bone scan images. These scoring systems can be based either on visual counting of bone lesions, or on the estimation of a numerical index that expresses the fractional involvement of each bone by tumour, called "Bone Scan Index" (BSI); the latter can be produced either visually (manually) or by the more sophisticated techniques of fully- or semi-automated (computerized) forms. In this review, a brief chronological overview of the aforementioned methods is presented, along with the main advantages, drawbacks and the prognostic implications of each method. There remains, however, the challenge of defining, developing and validating the optimal measurement methodology in order these scoring systems to obtain a wider clinical use.

  5. Functional scoring system for obstetric brachial plexus palsy.

    PubMed

    Basheer, H; Zelic, V; Rabia, F

    2000-02-01

    We suggest a new scoring system that measures the upper limb function both as a unit and in separate parts. Our system was designed to study the recovery in patients with obstetric brachial plexus palsy (OBPP). It measures active limb movements and compares them with the normal side to obtain a ratio, which is then converted to a score. Fifty-two patients with OBPP were studied with a follow-up of 2 years. The progress of the patients was monitored using the system. Thirty-seven patients (71%) achieved very good recovery, eight patients (15%) achieved a good score, and five patients (10%) achieved a poor score. Most of the recovery occurred before the age of 6 months.

  6. Prognostic Model Based on Systemic Inflammatory Response and Clinicopathological Factors to Predict Outcome of Patients with Node-Negative Gastric Cancer.

    PubMed

    Qu, Jing-lei; Qu, Xiu-juan; Li, Zhi; Zhang, Jing-dong; Liu, Jing; Teng, Yue-e; Jin, Bo; Zhao, Ming-fang; Yu, Ping; Shi, Jing; Fu, Ling-Yu; Wang, Zhen-ning; Liu, Yun-peng

    2015-01-01

    Prognostic models are generally used to predict gastric cancer outcomes. However, no model combining patient-, tumor- and host-related factors has been established to predict outcomes after radical gastrectomy, especially outcomes of patients without nodal involvement. The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model based on the systemic inflammatory response and clinicopathological factors of resectable gastric cancer and determine whether the model can improve prognostic accuracy in node-negative patients. We reviewed the clinical, laboratory, histopathological and survival data of 1397 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy between 2007 and 2013. Patients were split into development and validation sets of 1123 and 274 patients, respectively. Among all 1397 patients, 545 had node-negative gastric cancer; 440 were included in the development set, 105 were included in the validation set. A prognostic model was constructed from the development set. The scoring system was based on hazard ratios in a Cox proportional hazard model. In the multivariate analysis, age, tumor size, Lauren type, depth of invasion, lymph node metastasis, and the neutrophil--lymphocyte ratio were independent prognostic indicators of overall survival. A prognostic model was then established based on the significant factors. Patients were categorized into five groups according to their scores. The 3-year survival rates for the low- to high-risk groups were 98.9%, 92.8%, 82.4%, 58.4%, and 36.9%, respectively (P < 0.001). The prognostic model clearly discriminated patients with stage pT1-4N0M0 tumor into four risk groups with significant differences in the 3-year survival rates (P < 0.001). Compared with the pathological T stage, the model improved the predictive accuracy of the 3-year survival rate by 5% for node-negative patients. The prognostic scores also stratified the patients with stage pT4aN0M0 tumor into significantly different risk groups (P = 0.004). Furthermore, the

  7. Pretreatment Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score Predicts Clinical Outcomes After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Kishi, Takahiro; Matsuo, Yukinori Ueki, Nami; Iizuka, Yusuke; Nakamura, Akira; Sakanaka, Katsuyuki; Mizowaki, Takashi; Hiraoka, Masahiro

    2015-07-01

    Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who received stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). Methods and Materials: Data from 165 patients who underwent SBRT for stage I NSCLC with histologic confirmation from January 1999 to September 2010 were collected retrospectively. Factors, including age, performance status, histology, Charlson comorbidity index, mGPS, and recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class based on sex and T stage, were evaluated with regard to overall survival (OS) using the Cox proportional hazards model. The impact of the mGPS on cause of death and failure patterns was also analyzed. Results: The 3-year OS was 57.9%, with a median follow-up time of 3.5 years. A higher mGPS correlated significantly with poor OS (P<.001). The 3-year OS of lower mGPS patients was 66.4%, whereas that of higher mGPS patients was 44.5%. On multivariate analysis, mGPS and RPA class were significant factors for OS. A higher mGPS correlated significantly with lung cancer death (P=.019) and distant metastasis (P=.013). Conclusions: The mGPS was a significant predictor of clinical outcomes for SBRT in NSCLC patients.

  8. Semiquantitative mIBG Scoring as a Prognostic Indicator in Patients with Stage 4 Neuroblastoma: A Report from the Children’s Oncology Group

    PubMed Central

    Yanik, Gregory A.; Parisi, Marguerite T.; Shulkin, Barry L.; Naranjo, Arlene; Kreissman, Susan G.; London, Wendy B.; Villablanca, Judith G.; Maris, John M.; Park, Julie R.; Cohn, Susan L.; McGrady, Patrick; Matthay, Katherine K.

    2017-01-01

    Radiolabeled metaiodobenzylguanidine (mIBG) is a highly sensitive and specific marker for detecting neuroblastoma. A semiquantitative mIBG score (Curie score [CS]) was assessed for utility as a prognostic indicator for a cohort of patients with highrisk metastatic disease. Methods mIBG scans from 280 patients with mIBG-avid, stage 4 neuroblastoma enrolled on the Children’s Oncology Group (COG) protocol A3973 were evaluated at diagnosis (n = 280), after induction chemotherapy (n = 237), and after an autologous stem cell transplantation (n = 178). Individual mIBG scans were evaluated at 10 different anatomic regions, with the scoring of each site (0–3) based on the extent of disease at that anatomic region. Results There was no correlation between CS at diagnosis and subsequent treatment outcome. Patients with a CS > 2 after induction therapy had a significantly worse event-free survival (EFS) than those with scores ≤ 2 (3-y EFS: 15.4% ± 5.3% vs. 44.9% ± 3.9%, respectively; P < 0.001). A postinduction CS > 2 identified a cohort of patients at greater risk for an event, independent of other known neuroblastoma factors, including age, MYCN status, ploidy, mitosis-karyorrhexis index, and histologic grade. For MYCN-amplified tumors, the presence (CS > 0) versus absence (CS = 0) of residual mIBG avidity after induction was associated with a significantly worse outcome (3-y EFS: 11.8% ± 7.8% vs. 49.6% ± 7.7%, respectively; P = 0.003). After transplantation, patients with a CS > 0 had an EFS inferior to that of patients with a CS of 0 (3-y EFS: 28.9% ± 6.8% vs. 49.3% ± 4.9%, respectively [n = 133]; P = 0.009). Conclusion Curie scoring carries prognostic significance in the management of patients with high-risk neuroblastoma. In particular, patients with CSs > 2 after induction have extremely poor outcomes and should be considered for alternative therapeutic strategies. PMID:23440556

  9. Semiquantitative mIBG scoring as a prognostic indicator in patients with stage 4 neuroblastoma: a report from the Children's oncology group.

    PubMed

    Yanik, Gregory A; Parisi, Marguerite T; Shulkin, Barry L; Naranjo, Arlene; Kreissman, Susan G; London, Wendy B; Villablanca, Judith G; Maris, John M; Park, Julie R; Cohn, Susan L; McGrady, Patrick; Matthay, Katherine K

    2013-04-01

    Radiolabeled metaiodobenzylguanidine (mIBG) is a highly sensitive and specific marker for detecting neuroblastoma. A semiquantitative mIBG score (Curie score [CS]) was assessed for utility as a prognostic indicator for a cohort of patients with high-risk metastatic disease. mIBG scans from 280 patients with mIBG-avid, stage 4 neuroblastoma enrolled on the Children's Oncology Group (COG) protocol A3973 were evaluated at diagnosis (n = 280), after induction chemotherapy (n = 237), and after an autologous stem cell transplantation (n = 178). Individual mIBG scans were evaluated at 10 different anatomic regions, with the scoring of each site (0-3) based on the extent of disease at that anatomic region. There was no correlation between CS at diagnosis and subsequent treatment outcome. Patients with a CS > 2 after induction therapy had a significantly worse event-free survival (EFS) than those with scores ≤ 2 (3-y EFS: 15.4% ± 5.3% vs. 44.9% ± 3.9%, respectively; P < 0.001). A postinduction CS > 2 identified a cohort of patients at greater risk for an event, independent of other known neuroblastoma factors, including age, MYCN status, ploidy, mitosis-karyorrhexis index, and histologic grade. For MYCN-amplified tumors, the presence (CS > 0) versus absence (CS = 0) of residual mIBG avidity after induction was associated with a significantly worse outcome (3-y EFS: 11.8% ± 7.8% vs. 49.6% ± 7.7%, respectively; P = 0.003). After transplantation, patients with a CS > 0 had an EFS inferior to that of patients with a CS of 0 (3-y EFS: 28.9% ± 6.8% vs. 49.3% ± 4.9%, respectively [n = 133]; P = 0.009). Curie scoring carries prognostic significance in the management of patients with high-risk neuroblastoma. In particular, patients with CSs > 2 after induction have extremely poor outcomes and should be considered for alternative therapeutic strategies.

  10. Disease scoring systems for oral lichen planus; a critical appraisal

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jing

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study has been to critically review 22 disease scoring systems (DSSs) on oral lichen planus (OLP) that have been reported in the literature during the past decades. Although the presently available DSSs may all have some merit, particularly for research purposes, the diversity of both the objective and subjective parameters used in these systems and the lack of acceptance of one of these systems for uniform use, there is a need for an international, authorized consensus meeting on this subject. Because of the natural course of OLP characterized by remissions and exacerbations and also due to the varying distribution pattern and the varying clinical types, e.g. reticular and erosive, the relevance of a DSS based on morphologic parameters is somewhat questionable. Instead, one may consider to only look for a quality of life scoring system adapted for use in OLP patients. Key words:Oral lichen planus, disease scoring system, classification. PMID:25681372

  11. Prospective evaluation of a pediatric inpatient early warning scoring system.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Karen M; Brewer, Tracy L; Baker, Rachel B; Demeritt, Brenda; Vossmeyer, Michael T

    2009-04-01

    The present study evaluated the use of the Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) for detecting clinical deterioration among hospitalized children. A prospective, descriptive study design was used. The tool was used to score 2,979 patients admitted to a single medical unit of a pediatric hospital over a 12-month period. PEWS discriminated between children who required transfer to the pediatric intensive care unit and those who did not require transfer (area under the curve = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.84-0.94, p < .001). The PEWS tool was found to be a reliable and valid scoring system to identify children at risk for clinical deterioration.

  12. Reliability, Reproducibility and Prognostic Accuracy of the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score on CT Perfusion and Non-Contrast CT in Hyperacute Stroke.

    PubMed

    Naylor, Jillian; Churilov, Leonid; Chen, Ziyuan; Koome, Miriam; Rane, Neil; Campbell, Bruce C V

    2017-08-16

    Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) assesses early ischemic change on non-contrast CT (NCCT). We hypothesised that assessing ASPECTS regions on CT Perfusion (CTP) rather than NCCT would improve inter-rater agreement and prognostic accuracy, particularly in patients presenting early after stroke onset. Ischemic stroke patients treated with intravenous alteplase from 2009 to 2014 at our institution were included in this study. Inter-rater agreement and prognostic accuracy of ASPECTS across modalities were analysed by the time between stroke onset and initial NCCT, dichotomized 1st quartile versus quartiles 2-4, referred to as epochs. ASPECTS was assessed by 2 independent raters, blinded to stroke onset time, with agreement determined by weighted kappa (κw). Prognostic accuracy for favourable outcome (modified Rankin Scale 0-2) was assessed using the receiver-operating characteristic analysis. A total of 227 participants were included. There was significant time-by-CT modality interaction for ASPECTS, p < 0.0001. The inter-rater agreement of ASPECTS on NCCT significantly increased as onset to CT time increased (κw epoch 1 = 0.76 vs. κw epoch 2-4 = 0.89, p = 0.04), whereas agreement using CTP parameters was stable across epochs. Inter-rater agreement for CTP-ASPECTS was significantly higher than NCCT in early epoch: Tmax κw = 0.96, p = 0.002; cerebral blood volume (CBV) κw = 0.95, p = 0.003; cerebral blood flow (CBF) κw = 0.94, p = 0.006, with no differences in the later epochs. Prognostic accuracy of ASPECTS on NCCT in epoch 1 were (area under the ROC curves [AUC] = 0.52, 95% CI 0.48-0.56), CBV (AUC = 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.69, CBF (AUC = 0.58, 95% CI 0.46-0.71) and Tmax (AUC = 0.62, 95% CI 0.49-0.75), p = 0.46 between modalities. CTP can improve reliability when assessing the extent of ischemic changes, particularly in patients imaged early after stroke onset. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  13. A combination of Nottingham prognostic index and IHC4 score predicts pathological complete response of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in estrogen receptor positive breast cancer

    PubMed Central

    Jia, Weijuan; Liang, Gehao; Xie, Xinhua; Zheng, Wenbo; Song, Erwei; Su, Fengxi; Gong, Chang

    2016-01-01

    Pathologic complete response (pCR) prediction after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is important for clinical decision-making in breast cancer. This study investigated the predictive value of Nottingham prognostic index (NPI), Immunohistochemical four (IHC4) score and a new predictive index combined with them in estrogen-positive (ER+) breast cancer following NAC. We retrospectively gathered clinical data of 739 ER+ breast cancer patients who received NAC from two cancer centers. We developed a new predictive biomarker named NPI+IHC4 to predict pCR in ER+ breast cancer in a training set (n=443) and validated it in an external validation set (n=296). The results showed that a lower IHC4 score, NPI and NPI+IHC4 were significantly associated a high pCR rate in the entire cohort. In the study set, NPI+IHC4 showed a better sensitivity and specificity for pCR prediction (AUC 0.699, 95% CI 0.626-0.772) than IHC4 score (AUC 0.613, 95% CI 0.533-0.692), NPI (AUC 0.576, 95% CI 0.494-0.659), tumor size (AUC 0.556, 95% CI 0.481-0.631) and TNM stage (AUC 0.521, 95% CI 0.442-0.601). In the validation set, NPI+IHC4 had a better predictive value for pCR (AUC 0.665, 95% CI 0.579-0.751) than IHC4 score or NPI alone. In addition, ER+ patients with lower IHC4, NPI and NPI+IHC4 scores had significantly better DFS in both study and validation sets. In summary, NPI+IHC4 can predict pCR following NAC and prognosis in ER+ breast cancer, which is cost-effect and potentially more useful in guiding decision-making regarding NAC in clinical practice. Further validation is needed in prospective clinical trials with larger cohorts of patients. PMID:27894097

  14. Childhood Hodgkin International Prognostic Score (CHIPS) Predicts event-free survival in Hodgkin Lymphoma: A Report from the Children's Oncology Group.

    PubMed

    Schwartz, Cindy L; Chen, Lu; McCarten, Kathleen; Wolden, Suzanne; Constine, Louis S; Hutchison, Robert E; de Alarcon, Pedro A; Keller, Frank G; Kelly, Kara M; Trippet, Tanya A; Voss, Stephan D; Friedman, Debra L

    2017-04-01

    Early response to initial chemotherapy in Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) measured by computed tomography (CT) and/or positron emission tomography (PET) after two to three cycles of chemotherapy may inform therapeutic decisions. Risk stratification at diagnosis could, however, allow earlier and potentially more efficacious treatment modifications. We developed a predictive model for event-free survival (EFS) in pediatric/adolescent HL using clinical data known at diagnosis from 1103 intermediate-risk HL patients treated on Children's Oncology Group protocol AHOD0031 with doxorubicin, bleomycin, vincristine, etoposide, prednisone, cyclophosphamide (ABVE-PC) chemotherapy and radiation. Independent predictors of EFS were identified and used to develop and validate a prognostic score (Childhood Hodgkin International Prognostic Score [CHIPS]). A training cohort was randomly selected to include approximately half of the overall cohort, with the remainder forming the validation cohort. Stage 4 disease, large mediastinal mass, albumin (<3.5), and fever were independent predictors of EFS that were each assigned one point in the CHIPS.  Four-year EFS was 93.1% for patients with CHIPS = 0, 88.5% for patients with CHIPS = 1, 77.6% for patients with CHIPS = 2, and 69.2% for patients with CHIPS = 3. CHIPS was highly predictive of EFS, identifying a subset (with CHIPS 2 or 3) that comprises 27% of intermediate-risk patients who have a 4-year EFS of <80% and who may benefit from early therapeutic augmentation.  Furthermore, CHIPS identified higher risk patients who were not identified by early PET or CT response. CHIPS is a robust and inexpensive approach to predicting risk in patients with intermediate-risk HL that may improve ability to tailor therapy to risk factors known at diagnosis. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. The Advanced Dementia Prognostic Tool (ADEPT): A Risk Score to Estimate Survival in Nursing Home Residents with Advanced Dementia

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Susan L.; Miller, Susan C.; Teno, Joan M.; Davis, Roger B.; Shaffer, Michele L.

    2010-01-01

    Context Estimating life expectancy is challenging in advanced dementia. Objectives To create a risk score to estimate survival in nursing home (NH) residents with advanced dementia. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study performed in the setting of all licensed US NHs. Residents with advanced dementia living in US NHs in 2002 were identified using Minimum Data Set (MDS) assessments. Mortality data from Medicare files were used to determine 12-month survival. Independent variables were selected from the MDS. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model survival. The accuracy of the final model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). To develop a risk score, points were assigned to variables in the final model based on parameter estimates. Residents meeting hospice eligibility guidelines for dementia, based on MDS data, were identified. The AUROC assessed the accuracy of hospice guidelines to predict six-month survival. Results Over 12 months, 40.6% of residents with advanced dementia (n=22,405) died. Twelve variables best predicted survival: length of stay, age, male, dyspnea, pressure ulcers, total functional dependence, bedfast, insufficient intake, bowel incontinence, body mass index, weight loss, and congestive heart failure. The AUROC for the final model was 0.68. The risk score ranged from 0–32 points (higher scores indicate worse survival). Only 15.9% of residents met hospice eligibility guidelines for which the AUROC predicting six-month survival was 0.53. Conclusion A mortality risk score derived from MDS data predicted six-month survival in advanced dementia with moderate accuracy. The predictive ability of hospice guidelines, simulated with MDS data, was poor. PMID:20621437

  16. Predicting neonatal morbidity after perinatal asphyxia: a scoring system.

    PubMed

    Portman, R J; Carter, B S; Gaylord, M S; Murphy, M G; Thieme, R E; Merenstein, G B

    1990-01-01

    Predicting immediate neonatal morbidity after perinatal asphyxia has been difficult. A review of asphyxiated neonates greater than or equal to 36 weeks' gestation admitted to The Children's Hospital Newborn Intensive Care Unit in 1983 was conducted to devise a scoring system that would rapidly predict organ dysfunction observed in the immediate neonatal period. Comparison of potential score components to morbidity by multiple regression analysis yielded significant association with abnormalities in fetal heart rate monitoring, the 5-minute Apgar score, and neonatal base deficit. A scoring system was devised whose sensitivity (93.8%) and specificity (81.3%) were more predictive than any of its individual components. Prospective analysis in a similar population in 1984 validated its ability to distinguish severe from moderate morbidity after asphyxia. Positive predictive value for the score in the combined study groups (n = 98) was 79% and the negative predictive value was 83%. The scoring system may offer a rapid and accurate prediction of organ dysfunction in the immediate neonatal period after asphyxia.

  17. Specific scoring systems to predict survival of patients with high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and de novo acute myeloid leukemia (AML) after intensive antileukemic treatment based on results of the EORTC-GIMEMA AML-10 and intergroup CRIANT studies.

    PubMed

    Oosterveld, Margriet; Suciu, Stefan; Muus, Petra; Germing, Ulrich; Delforge, Michel; Belhabri, Amin; Aul, Carlo; Selleslag, Dominik; Ferrant, Augustin; Marie, Jean-Pierre; Amadori, Sergio; Jehn, Ulrich; Mandelli, Franco; Hess, Uwe; Hellström-Lindberg, Eva; Cakmak-Wollgast, Songuel; Vignetti, Marco; Labar, Boris; Willemze, Roel; de Witte, Theo

    2015-01-01

    High-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients have usually a less favorable outcome after intensive treatment compared with de novo acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients. This may reflect different disease-related and patient-related factors. The purpose of this analysis is to identify disease-specific prognostic factors and to develop prognostic scores for both patient groups. A total of 692 patients in the EORTC/GIMEMA AML-10 study and 289 patients in the CRIANT study received identical remission-induction and consolidation treatment. Estimated 5-year survival rate was 34 % in the AML-10 versus 27 % in the CRIANT study, and estimated disease-free survival was 40 % versus 28 %, respectively. In multivariate analysis, cytogenetic characteristics, white blood count, and age appeared prognostic for survival in both studies. French-American-British (FAB) subtype and performance status were prognostic in the AML-10 study only, whereas number of cytopenias and duration of antecedent hematologic disorder >6 months were prognostic in the CRIANT study only. The prognostic scores distinguish three groups with a 5-year survival rate of 54, 38, and 19 % in the AML-10 study versus 69, 37, and 5 % in the CRIANT study. The prognostic value of these scores has been validated on two external series. The new scoring systems form a practical tool to predict the outcome of individual MDS and AML patients treated with intensive antileukemic therapy.

  18. Model for End-stage Liver Disease excluding INR (MELD-XI) score in critically ill patients: Easily available and of prognostic relevance

    PubMed Central

    Wernly, Bernhard; Lichtenauer, Michael; Franz, Marcus; Kabisch, Bjoern; Muessig, Johanna; Masyuk, Maryna; Hoppe, Uta C.; Kelm, Malte; Jung, Christian

    2017-01-01

    Purpose MELD-XI, an adapted version of Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score excluding INR, was reported to predict outcomes e.g. in patients with acute heart failure. We aimed to evaluate MELD-XI in critically ill patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) for prognostic relevance. Methods A total of 4381 medical patients (66±14 years, 2862 male) admitted to a German ICU between 2004 and 2009 were included and retrospectively investigated. Admission diagnoses were e.g. myocardial infarction (n = 2034), sepsis (n = 694) and heart failure (n = 688). We divided our patients in two cohorts basing on their MELD-XI score and evaluated the MELD-XI score for its prognostic relevance regarding short-term and long-term survival. Optimal cut-offs were calculated by means of the Youden-Index. Results Patients with a MELD-XI score >12 had pronounced laboratory signs of organ failure and more comorbidities. MELD-XI >12 was associated with an increase in short-term (27% vs 6%; HR 4.82, 95%CI 3.93–5.93; p<0.001) and long-term (HR 3.69, 95%CI 3.20–4.25; p<0.001) mortality. In a univariate Cox regression analysis for all patients MELD-XI was associated with increased long-term mortality (changes per score point: HR 1.06, 95%CI 1.05–1.07; p<0.001) and remained to be associated with increased mortality after correction in a multivariate regression analysis for renal failure, liver failure, lactate concentration, blood glucose concentration, oxygenation and white blood count (HR 1.04, 95%CI 1.03–1.06; p<0.001). Optimal cut-off for the overall cohort was 11 and varied remarkably depending on the admission diagnosis: myocardial infarction (9), pulmonary embolism (9), cardiopulmonary resuscitation (17) and pneumonia (17). We performed ROC-analysis and compared the AUC: SAPS2 (0.78, 95%CI 0.76–0.80; p<0.0001) and APACHE (0.76, 95%CI 0.74–0.78; p<0.003) score were superior to MELD-XI (0.71, 95%CI 0.68–0.73) for prediction of mortality. Conclusions The easily

  19. Model for End-stage Liver Disease excluding INR (MELD-XI) score in critically ill patients: Easily available and of prognostic relevance.

    PubMed

    Wernly, Bernhard; Lichtenauer, Michael; Franz, Marcus; Kabisch, Bjoern; Muessig, Johanna; Masyuk, Maryna; Hoppe, Uta C; Kelm, Malte; Jung, Christian

    2017-01-01

    MELD-XI, an adapted version of Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score excluding INR, was reported to predict outcomes e.g. in patients with acute heart failure. We aimed to evaluate MELD-XI in critically ill patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) for prognostic relevance. A total of 4381 medical patients (66±14 years, 2862 male) admitted to a German ICU between 2004 and 2009 were included and retrospectively investigated. Admission diagnoses were e.g. myocardial infarction (n = 2034), sepsis (n = 694) and heart failure (n = 688). We divided our patients in two cohorts basing on their MELD-XI score and evaluated the MELD-XI score for its prognostic relevance regarding short-term and long-term survival. Optimal cut-offs were calculated by means of the Youden-Index. Patients with a MELD-XI score >12 had pronounced laboratory signs of organ failure and more comorbidities. MELD-XI >12 was associated with an increase in short-term (27% vs 6%; HR 4.82, 95%CI 3.93-5.93; p<0.001) and long-term (HR 3.69, 95%CI 3.20-4.25; p<0.001) mortality. In a univariate Cox regression analysis for all patients MELD-XI was associated with increased long-term mortality (changes per score point: HR 1.06, 95%CI 1.05-1.07; p<0.001) and remained to be associated with increased mortality after correction in a multivariate regression analysis for renal failure, liver failure, lactate concentration, blood glucose concentration, oxygenation and white blood count (HR 1.04, 95%CI 1.03-1.06; p<0.001). Optimal cut-off for the overall cohort was 11 and varied remarkably depending on the admission diagnosis: myocardial infarction (9), pulmonary embolism (9), cardiopulmonary resuscitation (17) and pneumonia (17). We performed ROC-analysis and compared the AUC: SAPS2 (0.78, 95%CI 0.76-0.80; p<0.0001) and APACHE (0.76, 95%CI 0.74-0.78; p<0.003) score were superior to MELD-XI (0.71, 95%CI 0.68-0.73) for prediction of mortality. The easily calculable MELD-XI score is a robust and reliable

  20. External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

    PubMed

    Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p<0.001)/GBS = 0.810 (CI: 0.744-0.877; p->0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; p<0.001)], whereas only CRS achieved significance in identifying re-bleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

  1. Validation of an IGF-CTP scoring system for assessing hepatic reserve in egyptian patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Abdel-Wahab, Reham; Shehata, Samir; Hassan, Manal M.; Xiao, Lianchun; Lee, Ju-Seog; Cheung, Sheree; Essa, Hoda H.; Hassabo, Hesham M.; Shalaby, Ahmed S.; Mosad, Eman; Raghav, Kanwal; Rashid, Asif; Wolff, Robert A.; Morris, Jeffrey S.; Amin, Hesham M.; Kaseb, Ahmed O.

    2015-01-01

    Background The Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP) is the standard tool for hepatic reserve assessment in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, we reported that integrating plasma insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) level into the CTP score was associated with better patient risk stratification in two U.S. independent cohorts. Our current study aimed to validate the IGF-CTP score in patients who have different demographics and risk factors. Patients and Methods We prospectively recruited 100 Egyptian patients and calculated their IGF-CTP score compared to CTP score. C-index was used to compare the prognostic significance of the two scoring systems. Finally, we compared our results with our U.S. cohorts published data. Results IGF-CTP score showed significant better patient stratification compared to CTP score in the international validation cohort. Among CTP class A patients, who usually considered for active treatment and clinical trial enrollment, 32.5% were reclassified as IGF-CTP class B with significantly shorter OS than patients reclassified as class A with hazard ratio [HR] = 6.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.18-17.37. Conclusion IGF-CTP score showed significantly better patient stratification and survival prediction not only in the U.S. population but also in international validation population, who had different demographics and HCC risk factors. PMID:26098859

  2. Predictive and Prognostic Value of the 21-Gene Recurrence Score in Hormone Receptor–positive, Node-positive Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The addition of adjuvant chemotherapy to hormonal therapy is recommended for patients with estrogen receptor–positive (ER+), node-positive (N+) early breast cancer (EBC). Some of these patients, however, are not likely to benefit from treatment and may, therefore, be overtreated while also incurring unnecessary treatment-related adverse events and health care costs. The 21-gene Recurrence Score assay has been clinically validated and recommended for use in patients with ER+, node-negative (N0) EBC to assess the 10-year risk of distant disease recurrence and predict the likelihood of response to adjuvant chemotherapy. A growing body of evidence from several large phase III clinical trials reports similar findings in patients with ER+, N+ EBC. A systematic review of published literature from key clinical trials that have used the 21-gene breast cancer assay in patients with ER+, N+ EBC was performed. The Recurrence Score has been shown to be an independent predictor of disease-free survival, overall survival, and distant recurrence-free interval in patients with ER+, N+ EBC. Outcomes from decision impact and health economics studies further indicate that the Recurrence Score affects physician treatment recommendations equally in patients with N+ or N0 disease. It also indicates that a reduction in Recurrence Score–directed chemotherapy is cost-effective. There is a large body of evidence to support the use of the 21-gene assay Recurrence Score in patients with N+ EBC. Use of this assay could help guide treatment decisions for patients who are most likely to receive benefit from chemotherapy. PMID:24853663

  3. Predicting short-term survival after liver transplantation on eight score systems: a national report from China Liver Transplant Registry.

    PubMed

    Ling, Qi; Dai, Haojiang; Zhuang, Runzhou; Shen, Tian; Wang, Weilin; Xu, Xiao; Zheng, Shusen

    2017-02-13

    To compare the performance of eight score systems (MELD, uMELD, MELD-Na. iMELD, UKELD, MELD-AS, CTP, and mCTP) in predicting the post-transplant mortality, we analyzed the data of 6,014 adult cirrhotic patients who underwent liver transplantation between January 2003 and December 2010 from the China Liver Transplant Registry database. In hepatitis B virus (HBV) group, MELD, uMELD and MELD-AS showed good predictive accuracies at 3-month mortality after liver transplantation; by comparison with other five models, MELD presented the best ability in predicting 3-month, 6-month and 1-year mortality, showing a significantly better predictive ability than UKELD and iMELD. In hepatitis C virus and Alcohol groups, the predictive ability did not differ significantly between MELD and other models. Patient survivals in different MELD categories were of statistically significant difference. Among patients with MELD score >35, a new prognostic model based on serum creatinine, need for hemodialysis and moderate ascites could identify the sickest one. In conclusion, MELD is superior to other score systems in predicting short-term post-transplant survival in patients with HBV-related liver disease. Among patients with MELD score >35, a new prognostic model can identify the sickest patients who should be excluded from waiting list to prevent wasteful transplantation.

  4. Predicting short-term survival after liver transplantation on eight score systems: a national report from China Liver Transplant Registry

    PubMed Central

    Ling, Qi; Dai, Haojiang; Zhuang, Runzhou; Shen, Tian; Wang, Weilin; Xu, Xiao; Zheng, Shusen

    2017-01-01

    To compare the performance of eight score systems (MELD, uMELD, MELD-Na. iMELD, UKELD, MELD-AS, CTP, and mCTP) in predicting the post-transplant mortality, we analyzed the data of 6,014 adult cirrhotic patients who underwent liver transplantation between January 2003 and December 2010 from the China Liver Transplant Registry database. In hepatitis B virus (HBV) group, MELD, uMELD and MELD-AS showed good predictive accuracies at 3-month mortality after liver transplantation; by comparison with other five models, MELD presented the best ability in predicting 3-month, 6-month and 1-year mortality, showing a significantly better predictive ability than UKELD and iMELD. In hepatitis C virus and Alcohol groups, the predictive ability did not differ significantly between MELD and other models. Patient survivals in different MELD categories were of statistically significant difference. Among patients with MELD score >35, a new prognostic model based on serum creatinine, need for hemodialysis and moderate ascites could identify the sickest one. In conclusion, MELD is superior to other score systems in predicting short-term post-transplant survival in patients with HBV-related liver disease. Among patients with MELD score >35, a new prognostic model can identify the sickest patients who should be excluded from waiting list to prevent wasteful transplantation. PMID:28198820

  5. Towards Developing a Scoring System for Febrile Thrombocytopenia.

    PubMed

    Kshirsagar, Prasita; Chauhan, Shaylika; Samel, Dinesh

    2016-02-01

    The authors wished to develop a scoring system for evaluating patients presenting with febrile thrombocytopenia for risk stratification, predicting patient outcome and optimization of care especially in resource poor countries. 1. To decide a protocol in the management of patients with fever and thrombocytopenia. 2. To develop screening or therapeutic guidelines (early warning score-EWS) in febrile thrombocytopenic patients and decide about therapeutic interventions. 1. To decide a protocol in the management of patients with fever and thrombocytopenia. 2. To develop screening or therapeutic guidelines (early warning score-EWS) in febrile thrombocytopenic patients and decide about therapeutic interventions. Retrospective study and development of a bedside scoring system based on Platelet Count, Temperature, Respiratory Rate, Blood Pressure. Pulse, CNS, Respiratory, Hematological, Hepatic and Renal complications in a central civic hospital and teaching institute in India. All patients > 18 years presenting with fever and thrombocytopenia with platelet count of < 150 × 109/L. Number of patients requiring platelet transfusions decreases when total risk score is used for risk stratification and for transfusing platelets as against the platelet count at admission. Patients who died in our study had a platelet count at presentation between 20,000- 1,00,000 though their total risk score was 17 and 18 respectively; hence platelet count alone should not be relied upon for platelet transfusion. Irrespective of the number of platelets transfused the prognosis is poor as the total risk score increases. The platelet count is not the only indicator of transfusion. When we use total risk score instead of platelet count for classifying patients who need transfusions, number of patients who fall in severe risk category needing immediate transfusion reduces and haphazard use of platelets can be avoided. Patient outcome (death/survival), occurrence of complications and hematological

  6. Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

    SciTech Connect

    Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

    2006-08-01

    The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

  7. Comparison of the prognostic value of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium scores and traditional models for predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis.

    PubMed

    Antunes, Artur Gião; Teixeira, Cristina; Vaz, Ana Margarida; Martins, Cláudio; Queirós, Patrícia; Alves, Ana; Velasco, Francisco; Peixe, Bruno; Oliveira, Ana Paula; Guerreiro, Horácio

    2017-04-01

    Recently, the European Association for the Study of the Liver - Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium defined two new prognostic scores, according to the presence or absence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) and the CLIF-C Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs). We sought to compare their accuracy in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality with some of the existing models: Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD to serum sodium ratio index (MESO), Refit MELD and Refit MELD-Na. Retrospective cohort study that evaluated all admissions due to decompensated cirrhosis in 2 centers between 2011 and 2014. At admission each score was assessed, and the discrimination ability was compared by measuring the area under the ROC curve (AUROC). A total of 779 hospitalizations were evaluated. Two hundred and twenty-two patients met criteria for ACLF (25.9%). The 30- and 90-day mortality were respectively 17.7 and 37.3%. CLIF-C ACLFs presented an AUROC for predicting 30- and 90-day mortality of 0.684 (95% CI: 0.599-0.770) and 0.666 (95% CI: 0.588-0.744) respectively. No statistically significant differences were found when compared to traditional models. For patients without ACLF, CLIF-C ADs had an AUROC for predicting 30- and 90-day mortality of 0.689 (95% CI: 0.614-0.763) and 0.672 (95% CI: 0.624-0.720) respectively. When compared to other scores, it was only statistically superior to MELD for predicting 30-day mortality (p=0.0296). The new CLIF-C scores were not statistically superior to the traditional models, with the exception of CLIF-C ADs for predicting 30-day mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U., AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

  8. Rating Pregnancy Wheel Applications Using the APPLICATIONS Scoring System.

    PubMed

    Chyjek, Kathy; Farag, Sara; Chen, Katherine T

    2015-06-01

    To identify the top-rated pregnancy wheel applications (apps) using a newly developed APPLICATIONS scoring system. A list of pregnancy wheel apps was identified. Consumer-based and inaccurate apps were excluded. The APPLICATIONS scoring system was developed to rate the remaining apps. Application comprehensiveness was evaluated. Objective rating components included price, paid subscription, literature used, in-app purchases, connectivity to the Internet, advertisements, text search field, interdevice compatibility, and other components such as images or figures, videos, and special features. Subjective rating components were ease of navigation and subjective presentation. A complete list of 55 pregnancy wheel apps was created from three sources. Thirty-nine (71%) were consumer-based, inaccurate, or both, leaving 16 (29%) for analysis using the APPLICATIONS scoring system. More than two thirds of pregnancy wheel apps were excluded from our study secondary to being consumer-based, inaccurate, or both. This highlights the importance of identifying systematically, reviewing critically, and rating the thousands of available apps to health care providers to ensure accuracy and applicability. We propose that our APPLICATIONS scoring system be used to rate apps in all specialties with the goal of improving health care provider performance and thereby patient outcomes. III.

  9. Barcelona clinic liver cancer nomogram and others staging/scoring systems in a French hepatocellular carcinoma cohort

    PubMed Central

    Adhoute, Xavier; Pénaranda, Guillaume; Raoul, Jean Luc; Edeline, Julien; Blanc, Jean-Frédéric; Pol, Bernard; Campanile, Manuela; Perrier, Hervé; Bayle, Olivier; Monnet, Olivier; Beaurain, Patrick; Muller, Cyril; Castellani, Paul; Le Treut, Yves Patrice; Bronowicki, Jean Pierre; Bourlière, Marc

    2017-01-01

    AIM To compare the performances of the Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) nomogram and others systems (BCLC, HKLC, CLIP, NIACE) for survival prediction in a large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) French cohort. METHODS Data were collected retrospectively from 01/2007 to 12/2013 in five French centers. Newly diagnosed HCC patients were analyzed. The discriminatory ability, homogeneity ability, prognostic stratification ability Akaike information criterion (AIC) and C-index were compared among scoring systems. RESULTS The cohort included 1102 patients, mostly men, median age 68 [60-74] years with cirrhosis (81%), child-Pugh A (73%), alcohol-related (41%), HCV-related (27%). HCC were multinodular (59%) and vascular invasion was present in 41% of cases. At time of HCC diagnosis BCLC stages were A (17%), B (16%), C (60%) and D (7%). First line HCC treatment was curative in 23.5%, palliative in 59.5%, BSC in 17% of our population. Median OS was 10.8 mo [4.9-28.0]. Each system distinguished different survival prognosis groups (P < 0.0001). The nomogram had the highest discriminatory ability, the highest C-index value. NIACE score had the lowest AIC value. The nomogram distinguished sixteen different prognosis groups. By classifying unifocal large HCC into tumor burden 1, the nomogram was less powerful. CONCLUSION In this French cohort, the BCLC nomogram and the NIACE score provided the best prognostic information, but the NIACE could even help treatment strategies. PMID:28465639

  10. Evaluation of prognostic differences in elderly patients with pneumonia treated by between pulmonologists and non-pulmonologists: a propensity score analysis.

    PubMed

    Komiya, Kosaku; Oka, Hiroaki; Ohama, Minoru; Uchida, Masahiro; Miyajima, Hajime; Iwashita, Tomohiko; Okabe, Eiji; Shuto, Osamu; Matsumoto, Taisuke; Ishii, Hiroshi; Kadota, Jun-Ichi

    2016-07-01

    The incidence of pneumonia among elderly people is increasing in aged countries, and both pulmonologists and non-pulmonologists treat such patients. The aim of this study was to assess prognostic differences between elderly patients treated by pulmonologists and those treated by non-pulmonologists. This study was a retrospective cohort using a propensity score analysis. Patients 65 years of age or over with pneumonia were consecutively included. The propensity score was estimated based on the patient's background and severity of pneumonia. The difference in 30-day and 90-day mortality depending on the attending physician's specialty was analyzed after adjusting for other variables, including the propensity score. We assessed 68 and 182 patients treated by pulmonologists and non-pulmonologists, respectively. The pulmonologists tended to be in charge of patients with hypoxemia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or dementia without aspiration pneumonia or renal dysfunction (area under receiver operating characteristic curve to predict treatment by a pulmonologist according to the propensity score = 0.737, P < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, white blood count cell (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.000, P = 0.030) and the serum albumin level (0.382, P = 0.001) were associated with 30-day mortality, and a bedridden status (3.000, P = 0.013) and the serum albumin level (0.382, P < 0.001) were associated with 90-day mortality; however, the attending physician's specialty was not associated with these prognoses. The overall prognosis of pneumonia in elderly patients may not necessarily improve, irrespective of treatment by pulmonologists, and host factors seemed to be associated with mortality. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Neutrophil/Lymphocyte ratio has no predictive or prognostic value in breast cancer patients undergoing preoperative systemic therapy.

    PubMed

    Suppan, Christoph; Bjelic-Radisic, Vesna; La Garde, Marlen; Groselj-Strele, Andrea; Eberhard, Katharina; Samonigg, Hellmut; Loibner, Hans; Dandachi, Nadia; Balic, Marija

    2015-12-29

    The primary goal of preoperative systemic treatment (PST) in patients with breast cancer is downsizing of tumors to enhance the rate of breast conserving surgery. Additionally, preoperative systemic treatment offers the possibility to assess for chemosensitivity of early stage disease. In various cancers the prognostic value of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was demonstrated, indicating that high NLR determines worse prognosis of the patients. The goal of our study was to evaluate the predictive and prognostic value of NLR in early stage breast cancer patients undergoing PST. 247 female patients with histologically proven breast cancer were analysed in this retrospective analysis. The NLR before the initiation of PST was documented. Histopathological response in surgically removed specimens was evaluated using a modified Sinn regression score and the pCR defined as no invasive tumor in primary tumor and lymph nodes. NLR was correlated with response to PST and disease free survival. PST was categorized into five groups (anthracycline containing, anthracycline and taxane containing, taxane containing, hormone treatment and other chemotherapies). pCR rate was defined as no invasive rest of tumor either in primary tumor or (ypT0 = Sinn) or in primary tumor and in lymph nodes (ypT0isypN0). Median NLR in patients without any invasive tumor rest was significantly higher than in patients either with some invasive tumor rest or not responding to chemotherapy. Despite this primary difference, the results were not stable across the analysed treatment groups particularly in the group with highest pCR rates (taxane and anthracycline treatment). Further, no association with disease free survival could be observed. Although there was a reverse trend with the higher NLR prior to systemic treatment in patients who achieved pCR, we could not demonstrate predictive or prognostic value of NLR in the cohort of early stage breast cancer patients treated with PST.

  12. A Novel scoring system for distinguishing keratoconus from normal eyes.

    PubMed

    Oruçoğlu, Faik; Toker, Ebru

    2016-10-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of a novel scoring system in differentiation of keratoconus (KC) eyes from normal eyes using a Scheimpflug camera system tomography. Marmara University Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey and Birinci Eye Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey. Retrospective case-control study. The study included 624 keratoconus eyes and 512 healthy eyes. Thirty nine significant parameters obtained from the Scheimpflug imaging system (Pentacam-Oculus Optikgeräte GmbH, Wetzlar, Germany) were studied. The cut-off value and area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve analysis for each studied parameter were established in the previous study. Minus three and plus three standard deviations of the cut-off value were scored after multiplication of AUROC for each parameter. The sum of all scores (TKS; Total Keratoconus Score) was compared between keratoconus and normal eyes. Average TKS value was -29.57±5.65 (Range from -43.11 to -7.09) in normal eyes and 36.23±24.3 (Range from -16.82 to 97.45) in keratoconus eyes (p<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed perfect predictive accuracy for TKS (ROC 1.0 (95% CI: 0.999-1.0)). The TKS distinguished the keratoconus group from the normal group with 99% sensitivity and 99% specificity at the best cut-off point of -12.45. The new scoring system measured by the Scheimpflug imaging system provides perfect discrimination of keratoconus from normal corneas. Copyright © 2016 British Contact Lens Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. A complexity scoring system for degenerative mitral valve repair.

    PubMed

    Anyanwu, Anelechi C; Itagaki, Shinobu; Chikwe, Joanna; El-Eshmawi, Ahmed; Adams, David H

    2016-06-01

    To develop a score to allow stratification of complexity in degenerative mitral valve repair. Retrospective modeling of data from 668 consecutive patients who underwent surgery for mitral valve prolapse. A complexity scoring scale was developed using a consensus approach, assigning a score to each valve, based on the following: prolapsing segments (weight 1 for each posterior segment; weight 2 for each anterior or commissural segment); presence of valve restriction (weight 2); presence of calcification (weight 3 if annulus involved, otherwise weight 2); and prior mitral valve repair (weight 3). Valve repairs were categorized into 3 groups based on the complexity score: 1: Simple (n = 244); 2-4: Intermediate (n = 260); ≥5: Complex (n = 164). Mitral valve repair was successfully performed in 667 patients (repair rate: 99.9%). The complexity score was directly correlated with surrogates of technical complexity. The mean cardiopulmonary bypass time increased with lesion complexity ([in minutes] simple: 152; intermediate: 167; complex 195; P < .001). The median number of repair techniques utilized was related to lesion complexity (simple: 3; intermediate: 4; complex: 5; P < .001). Barlow's type etiology was more prevalent in complex cases (63%), compared with simple (9%) and intermediate (35%) cases (P < .001). Advanced repair techniques were required to complete repair in 51% of complex cases, compared with 14% of intermediate and 0% of simple cases (P < .001). Early and late outcomes were similar. Our scoring system may allow effective stratification of complexity of mitral valve repair. Future studies are required to evaluate the use of our score in a prospective setting. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Prognostic role of Ki-67 score in localized prostate cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Berlin, Alejandro; Castro-Mesta, Julio F; Rodriguez-Romo, Laura; Hernandez-Barajas, David; González-Guerrero, Juan F; Rodríguez-Fernández, Iván A; González-Conchas, Galileo; Verdines-Perez, Adrian; Vera-Badillo, Francisco E

    2017-08-01

    Ki-67 for quantifying tumor proliferation is widely used. In localized prostate cancer (PCa), despite a suggested predictive role of Ki-67 for outcomes after therapies, it has not been incorporated into clinical practice. Herein, we conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature reporting the association of Ki-67 and disease outcomes in PCa treated radically. Medline and EMBASE databases were searched without date or language restrictions, using "KI67" and "prostate cancer" MeSH terms. Studies reporting Ki-67 association with clinical outcomes (disease-free survival [DFS], biochemical failure-free survival, rate of distant metastases [DM], disease-specific survival [DSS], or overall survival [OS], or all of these) in patients with PCa managed actively were included, and relevant data extracted by 2 independent reviewers. Odds ratios (OR) were weighted and pooled in a meta-analysis using Mantel-Haenszel random-effect modeling. Twenty-one studies comprising 5,419 patients met eligibility for analysis, and 67.6% of patients had low Ki-67. Mean Ki-67 was 6.14%. High Ki-67 was strongly associated with worse clinical outcomes. DFS was better in those patients with low Ki-67 at 5 and 10 years (OR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.23-0.44, P<0.00001; OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.20-0.48, P<0.00001). Similarly, low Ki-67 was related to improved DSS at 5 and 10 years (OR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.10-0.21, P<0.00001; OR = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.06-0.40, P<0.00001). Association between low Ki-67 scores with improved OS (OR = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.37-0.61; P<0.00001) and high Ki-67 scores with DM at 5 years (OR = 4.07; 95% CI: 2.52-6.58; P<0.00001) was consistently observed. High Ki-67 expression in localized PCa is a factor of poor prognosis for DSS, biochemical failure-free survival, DFS, DM, and OS after curative-intent treatments. Incorporation into clinical routine of this widely available and standardized biomarker should be strongly considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. A Prognostics and Health Management Roadmap for Information and Electronics-Rich Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pecht, Michael G.

    Prognostics and systems health management (PHM) is an enabling discipline of technologies and methods with the potential of solving reliability problems that have been manifested due to complexities in design, manufacturing, environmental and operational use conditions, and maintenance. Over the past decade, research has been conducted in PHM of information and electronics-rich systems as a means to provide advance warnings of failure, enable forecasted maintenance, improve system qualification, extend system life, and diagnose intermittent failures that can lead to field failure returns exhibiting no-fault-found symptoms. This paper presents an assessment of the state of practice in prognostics and health management of information and electronics-rich systems. While there are two general methods of performing PHM - model-based and data-driven methods - these methods by themselves have some key disadvantages. This paper presents a fusion prognostics approach, which combines or “fuses together” the model-based and data-driven approaches, to enable markedly better prognosis of remaining useful life. A case study of a printed circuit card assembly is given in order to illustrate the implementation of the fusion approach to prognostics.

  16. Validity Issues for Performance-Based Tests Scored with Computer-Automated Scoring Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clauser, Brian E.; Kane, Michael T.; Swanson, David B.

    2002-01-01

    Attempts to place the issues associated with computer-automated scoring within the context of current validity theory and presents a taxonomy of automated scoring procedures as a framework for discussing threats to validity that may take on increased importance for specific approaches to automated scoring. (SLD)

  17. Evaluation of the prognostic value of Okuda, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program, and Japan Integrated Staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Seong, Jinsil . E-mail: jsseong@yumc.yonsei.ac.kr; Shim, Su Jung; Lee, Ik Jae; Han, Kwang Hyub; Chon, Chae Yoon; Ahn, Sang Hoon

    2007-03-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the validity of staging systems, as well as to identify the staging system with the best prognostic value, in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: From 1992 to 2003, a total of 305 patients undergoing radiotherapy for HCC were evaluated retrospectively. All patients were classified before radiation therapy by the following systems: tumor-node-metastasis (TNM), Okuda, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), and Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) score. Cumulative survival rates were obtained using the Kaplan-Meier method, and were statistically compared using the log-rank test. Results: Median survival time was 11 months. The 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year survival rates were 45.1%, 24.5%, 14.7%, 10.3%, and 6.4%, respectively. Significant differences in survival were observed between all TNM stages, between CLIP scores 2, 3 and 5, 6, as well as between JIS scores 1, 2, and 2, 3. Conclusions: Among the systems studied, the TNM staging approach appeared to be the best predictor of prognosis. Staging systems that reflect liver disease status (Okuda stage, CLIP, and JIS score) showed limitations in stratifying patients undergoing radiotherapy into different prognostic groups.

  18. Local-Level Prognostics Health Management Systems Framework for Passive AdvSMR Components. Interim Report

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Roy, Surajit; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Pardini, Allan F.; Jones, Anthony M.; Deibler, John E.

    2014-09-12

    This report describes research results to date in support of the integration and demonstration of diagnostics technologies for prototypical AdvSMR passive components (to establish condition indices for monitoring) with model-based prognostics methods. The focus of the PHM methodology and algorithm development in this study is at the localized scale. Multiple localized measurements of material condition (using advanced nondestructive measurement methods), along with available measurements of the stressor environment, enhance the performance of localized diagnostics and prognostics of passive AdvSMR components and systems.

  19. Scoring System for Detecting Spurious Hemolysis in Anticoagulated Blood Specimens

    PubMed Central

    Yoo, Gilsung; Kim, Juwon; Yoon, Kwang Ro; Park, Soon Deok; Yoon, Kap Jun

    2015-01-01

    Background The identification of in vitro hemolysis (IVH) using a hematology analyzer is challenging because centrifugation of the specimens cannot be performed for cell counts. In the present study, we aimed to develop a scoring system to help identify the presence of hemolysis in anticoagulated blood specimens. Methods Thirty-seven potassium EDTA anticoagulated blood specimens were obtained, and each specimen was divided into 3 aliquots (A, B, and C). Aliquots B and C were mechanically hemolyzed by aspirating 2 and 5 times, respectively, using a 27-gauge needle and then tested; aliquot A was analyzed immediately without any hemolysis. After the cells were counted, aliquots B and C were centrifuged and the supernatants were tested for the hemolytic index and lactate dehydrogenase levels. Results The 4 hematologic parameters were selected and scored from 0 to 3 as follows:< 34.0, 34.0-36.2, 36.3-38.4, and ≥38.5 for mean cell hemoglobin concentration (MCHC, g/dL); <0.02, 0.02, 0.03, and ≥0.04 for red blood cell ghosts (1012/L); <0.13, 0.13-0.38, 0.39-1.30, and ≥1.31 for difference value (g/dL) of measured hemoglobin and calculated hemoglobin; and <0.26, 0.26-0.95, 0.96-3.34, and ≥3.35 for difference value (g/dL) of MCHC and cell hemoglobin concentration mean. The hemolysis score was calculated by adding all the scores from the 4 parameters. At the cutoff hemolysis score of 3, the IVH of aliquots B and C were detected as 64.9% and 91.9%, respectively. Conclusions The scoring system might provide effective screening for detecting spurious IVH. PMID:25932443

  20. Reliability of an injury scoring system for horses

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The risk of injuries is of major concern when keeping horses in groups and there is a need for a system to record external injuries in a standardised and simple way. The objective of this study, therefore, was to develop and validate a system for injury recording in horses and to test its reliability and feasibility under field conditions. Methods Injuries were classified into five categories according to severity. The scoring system was tested for intra- and inter-observer agreement as well as agreement with a 'golden standard' (diagnosis established by a veterinarian). The scoring was done by 43 agricultural students who classified 40 photographs presented to them twice in a random order, 10 days apart. Attribute agreement analysis was performed using Kendall's coefficient of concordance (Kendall's W), Kendall's correlation coefficient (Kendall's τ) and Fleiss' kappa. The system was also tested on a sample of 100 horses kept in groups where injury location was recorded as well. Results Intra-observer agreement showed Kendall's W ranging from 0.94 to 0.99 and 86% of observers had kappa values above 0.66 (substantial agreement). Inter-observer agreement had an overall Kendall's W of 0.91 and the mean kappa value was 0.59 (moderate). Agreement for all observers versus the 'golden standard' had Kendall's τ of 0.88 and the mean kappa value was 0.66 (substantial). The system was easy to use for trained persons under field conditions. Injuries of the more serious categories were not found in the field trial. Conclusion The proposed injury scoring system is easy to learn and use also for people without a veterinary education, it shows high reliability, and it is clinically useful. The injury scoring system could be a valuable tool in future clinical and epidemiological studies. PMID:21194451

  1. Expert system applications in support of system diagnostics and prognostics at EBR-II

    SciTech Connect

    Lehto, W.K.; Gross, K.C.; Argonne National Lab., IL )

    1989-01-01

    Expert systems have been developed to aid in the monitoring and diagnostics of the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) in Idaho Falls, Idaho. Systems have been developed for failed fuel surveillance and diagnostics and reactor coolant pump monitoring and diagnostics. A third project is being done jointly by ANL-W and EG G Idaho to develop a transient analysis system to enhance overall plant diagnostic and prognostic capability. The failed fuel surveillance and diagnosis system monitors, processes, and interprets information from nine key plant sensors. It displays to the reactor operator diagnostic information needed to make proper decisions regarding technical specification conformance during reactor operation with failed fuel. 8 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs.

  2. Diagnostic validation and prognostic significance of the Malnutrition-Inflammation Score in nondialyzed chronic kidney disease patients.

    PubMed

    Amparo, Fernanda C; Kamimura, Maria A; Molnar, Miklos Z; Cuppari, Lilian; Lindholm, Bengt; Amodeo, Celso; Carrero, Juan J; Cordeiro, Antonio C

    2015-05-01

    Malnutrition and inflammation are highly prevalent and intimately linked conditions in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients that lead to a state of protein-energy wasting (PEW), the severity of which can be assessed by the Malnutrition-Inflammation Score (MIS). Here, we applied MIS and validated, for the first time, its ability to grade PEW and predict mortality in nondialyzed CKD patients. We cross-sectionally evaluated 300 CKD stages 3-5 patients [median age 61 (53-68) years; estimated glomerular filtration rate 18 (12-27) mL/min/1.73 m(2); 63% men] referred for the first time to our center. Patients were followed during a median 30 (18-37) months for all-cause mortality. A worsening in MIS scale was associated with inflammatory biomarkers increase (i.e. alpha-1 acid glycoprotein, fibrinogen, ferritin and C-reactive protein) as well as a progressive deterioration in various MIS-independent indicators of nutritional status based on anthropometrics, dynamometry, urea kinetics and bioelectric impedance analysis. A structural equation model with two latent variables (assessing simultaneously malnutrition and inflammation factors) demonstrated good fit to the observed data. During a follow-up, 71 deaths were recorded; patients with higher MIS were at increased mortality risk in both crude and adjusted Cox models. MIS appears to be a useful tool to assess PEW in nondialyzed CKD patients. In addition, MIS identified patients at increased mortality risk. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  3. A study of radiological scoring system evaluating extrapancreatic inflammation with conventional radiological and clinical scores in predicting outcomes in acute pancreatitis.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Vishal; Rana, Surinder S; Sharma, Ravi K; Kang, Mandeep; Gupta, Rajesh; Bhasin, Deepak K

    2015-01-01

    A number of scoring systems are available to predict prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of the study was to compare extra-pancreatic inflammation on computed tomography (CT) (EPIC score) and renal rim sign with clinical scores (BISAP, SIRS) and conventional CT severity index (CTSI) and modified CTSI (MCTSI) in predicting persistent organ failure (POF), intervention and mortality. The demographic, clinical and radiographic data from patients with AP were retrospectively evaluated. The scores were evaluated by calculating receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC (AUROC). Of the 105 patients (65 males; mean age 40.6±12.9 years) included, 8 died, 71 developed POF, and 16 needed intervention. The mean CTSI, MCTSI and EPIC scores were 5.8±3.0, 7.1±2.6 and 4.0±1.9 respectively. The AUROC for SIRS, BISAP, CTSI, MCTSI, Renal Rim Score and EPIC score in predicting POF were 0.65 (95%CI 0.53-0.78), 0.75 (95%CI 0.65-0.86), 0.66 (95%CI 0.54-0.78), 0.70 (95%CI 0.58-0.81), 0.64 (95%CI 0.52-0.76), 0.71 (95%CI 0.60-0.83), for radiological/endoscopic intervention were 0.50 (95%CI 0.35-0.65), 0.64 (95%CI 0.49-0.78), 0.51 (95%CI 0.36-0.66), 0.55 (95%CI 0.41-0.70), 0.51 (95%CI 0.36-0.67), 0.66 (95%CI 0.52-0.81), and for mortality 0.57 (95%CI 0.38-0.75), 0.90 (95%CI 0.83-0.97), 0.67 (95%CI 0.50-0.83), 0.68 (95%CI 0.51-0.85), 0.73 (95%CI 0.57-0.89) and 0.77 (95%CI 0.64-0.90) respectively. The prognostic performance of various clinical and radiological scoring systems in AP is comparable with BISAP having the highest accuracy for predicting POF and mortality.

  4. Development of a Likelihood of Survival Scoring System for Hospitalized Equine Neonates Using Generalized Boosted Regression Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Dembek, Katarzyna A.; Hurcombe, Samuel D.; Frazer, Michele L.; Morresey, Peter R.; Toribio, Ramiro E.

    2014-01-01

    Background Medical management of critically ill equine neonates (foals) can be expensive and labor intensive. Predicting the odds of foal survival using clinical information could facilitate the decision-making process for owners and clinicians. Numerous prognostic indicators and mathematical models to predict outcome in foals have been published; however, a validated scoring method to predict survival in sick foals has not been reported. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a scoring system that can be used by clinicians to predict likelihood of survival of equine neonates based on clinical data obtained on admission. Methods and Results Data from 339 hospitalized foals of less than four days of age admitted to three equine hospitals were included to develop the model. Thirty seven variables including historical information, physical examination and laboratory findings were analyzed by generalized boosted regression modeling (GBM) to determine which ones would be included in the survival score. Of these, six variables were retained in the final model. The weight for each variable was calculated using a generalized linear model and the probability of survival for each total score was determined. The highest (7) and the lowest (0) scores represented 97% and 3% probability of survival, respectively. Accuracy of this survival score was validated in a prospective study on data from 283 hospitalized foals from the same three hospitals. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the survival score in the prospective population were 96%, 71%, 91%, and 85%, respectively. Conclusions The survival score developed in our study was validated in a large number of foals with a wide range of diseases and can be easily implemented using data available in most equine hospitals. GBM was a useful tool to develop the survival score. Further evaluations of this scoring system in field conditions are needed. PMID:25295600

  5. Modified glasgow prognostic score predicting high conversion ratio in opioid switching from oral oxycodone to transdermal fentanyl in patients with cancer pain

    PubMed Central

    Jia, Shu-Shan; Shang, Li; Li, Ming-E; Zhao, Dong-Mei; Xu, Wen-Hua; Wang, Yao-Qi

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to identify predictive factors for higher conversion ratio in opioid switching from oral oxycodone to transdermal fentanyl (TDF) in patients with cancer pain. The participants of this study were 156 hospitalized cancer patients who underwent opioid switching from oral oxycodone to TDF at the Affiliated Hospital of Binzhou Medical University between January 1st, 2010 and March 31st, 2014. Patient characteristics, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), daily oxycodone dose, and reasons for opioid switching were retrospectively collected. The effect of variables on the conversion ratio was analyzed by multiple regression analysis to identify the predictive factors for higher conversion ratio in opioid switching from oral oxycodone to TDF. The results showed that the mGPS (odds ratio [OR], 2.358; 95% CI 1.379-4.031; P = 0.002), the reason for opioid switching (OR, 0.497; 95% CI, 0.298-0.828; P = 0.007) and equivalent oral morphine dose (OR, 1.700; 95% CI, 1.008-2.867; P = 0.046) were found to be significant predictors requiring higher conversion ratio in opioid switching. This study indicates that higher mGPS, poor pain control before switching and higher equivalent oral morphine dose are significant predictors of a need for higher conversion ratio in opioid switching from oral oxycodone to TDF. These results could contribute to the establishment of evidence-based medicine in cancer pain relief. PMID:26221306

  6. A new scoring system for upper airway pediatric sleep endoscopy.

    PubMed

    Chan, Dylan K; Liming, Bryan J; Horn, David L; Parikh, Sanjay R

    2014-07-01

    Sleep-associated upper-airway obstruction in children is a significant cause of morbidity. Development of a simple, standardized, quantitative technique to assess anatomic causes of sleep-related breathing disorder is important for surgical planning, clinical communication, and research. To design, implement, and evaluate a scoring system to quantify airway obstruction in pediatric drug-induced sleep endoscopy. This study was a retrospective case series conducted at a tertiary pediatric hospital. The patients were children with sleep-related breathing disorder who underwent polysomnography and drug-induced sleep endoscopy. Flexible fiber-optic laryngoscopy was performed. Endoscopic examinations were recorded on video and assessed by 4 independent raters based on a scoring template. Five locations in the upper aerodigestive tract (adenoid, velum, lateral pharyngeal wall, tongue base, and supraglottis) were evaluated on a 4-point scale for minimum and maximum obstruction. Internal reliability was assessed by calculating interrater and intrarater intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). For external validation, aggregate and site-specific scores were correlated with preoperative polysomnographic indices. Videos recorded of sleep endoscopies from 23 children (mean age, 2.2 years) were reviewed and rated. Children had an average apnea-hypopnea index of 24.8. Seventy percent of interrater and intrarater ICC values (7 of 10 for each set) were above 0.6, demonstrating substantial agreement. Higher total obstructive scores were associated with lower oxygen saturation nadir (P = .04). The scoring system was also used to quantitatively identify children with multilevel airway obstruction, who were found to have significantly worse polysomnographic indices compared with children with single-level obstruction (P = .02). The proposed scoring system, which is designed to be easy to use and allow for subjectivity in evaluating obstruction at multiple levels, nonetheless

  7. A risk scoring system for prediction of haemorrhagic stroke.

    PubMed

    Zodpey, S P; Tiwari, R R

    2005-01-01

    The present pair-matched case control study was carried out at Government Medical College Hospital, Nagpur, India, a tertiary care hospital with the objective to devise and validate a risk scoring system for prediction of hemorrhagic stroke. The study consisted of 166 hospitalized CT scan proved cases of hemorrhagic stroke (ICD 9, 431-432), and a age and sex matched control per case. The controls were selected from patients who attended the study hospital for conditions other than stroke. On conditional multiple logistic regression five risk factors- hypertension (OR = 1.9. 95% Cl = 1.5-2.5). raised scrum total cholesterol (OR = 2.3, 95% Cl = 1.1-4.9). use of anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents (OR = 3.4, 95% Cl =1.1-10.4). past history of transient ischaemic attack (OR = 8.4, 95% Cl = 2.1- 33.6) and alcohol intake (OR = 2.1, 95% Cl = 1.3-3.6) were significant. These factors were ascribed statistical weights (based on regression coefficients) of 6, 8, 12, 21 and 8 respectively. The nonsignificant factors (diabetes mellitus, physical inactivity, obesity, smoking, type A personality, history of claudication, family history of stroke, history of cardiac diseases and oral contraceptive use in females) were not included in the development of scoring system. ROC curve suggested a total score of 21 to be the best cut-off for predicting haemorrhag stroke. At this cut-off the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity and Cohen's kappa were 0.74, 0.74, 0.74 and 0.48 respectively. The overall predictive accuracy of this additive risk scoring system (area under ROC curve by Wilcoxon statistic) was 0.79 (95% Cl = 0.73-0.84). Thus to conclude, if substantiated by further validation, this scorincy system can be used to predict haemorrhagic stroke, thereby helping to devise effective risk factor intervention strategy.

  8. The PAWS score: validation of an early warning scoring system for the initial assessment of children in the emergency department.

    PubMed

    Egdell, P; Finlay, L; Pedley, D K

    2008-11-01

    To devise a physiology-based scoring system for assessment of children presenting to the emergency department (ED) and to validate the system retrospectively. Age-dependent physiological parameters designed to reflect the cardiovascular, respiratory and neurological status of patients presenting to the ED were included in a scoring system called the Paediatric Advanced Warning Score (PAWS). A retrospective pilot evaluation was performed to validate PAWS. PAWS scores were calculated retrospectively for 46 consecutive children who required admission from the ED to the paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and for 49 control children who were admitted from the ED to the general paediatric ward. To validate the PAWS score, we determined if this score was able to identify patients who require admission to the PICU and were therefore significantly unwell. The PAWS score area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.86. Using a trigger score of 3 or above, PAWS was able to identify patients requiring PICU admission with a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 90%. This pilot study has shown that a physiology-based scoring system can help to identify children in the ED requiring PICU admission. Future prospective validation of PAWS is necessary to assess its ability to identify all children in need of urgent assessment in the ED.

  9. Scoring systems of severity in patients with multiple trauma.

    PubMed

    Rapsang, Amy Grace; Shyam, Devajit Chowlek

    2015-04-01

    Trauma is a major cause of morbidity and mortality; hence severity scales are important adjuncts to trauma care in order to characterize the nature and extent of injury. Trauma scoring models can assist with triage and help in evaluation and prediction of prognosis in order to organise and improve trauma systems. Given the wide variety of scoring instruments available to assess the injured patient, it is imperative that the choice of the severity score accurately match the application. Even though trauma scores are not the key elements of trauma treatment, they are however, an essential part of improvement in triage decisions and in identifying patients with unexpected outcomes. This article provides the reader with a compendium of trauma severity scales along with their predicted death rate calculation, which can be adopted in order to improve decision making, trauma care, research and in comparative analyses in quality assessment. Copyright © 2013 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  10. New reliable scoring system, Toyama mouse score, to evaluate locomotor function following spinal cord injury in mice.

    PubMed

    Shigyo, Michiko; Tanabe, Norio; Kuboyama, Tomoharu; Choi, Song-Hyen; Tohda, Chihiro

    2014-06-03

    Among the variety of methods used to evaluate locomotor function following a spinal cord injury (SCI), the Basso Mouse Scale score (BMS) has been widely used for mice. However, the BMS mainly focuses on hindlimb movement rather than on graded changes in body support ability. In addition, some of the scoring methods include double or triple criteria within a single score, which likely leads to an increase in the deviation within the data. Therefore we aimed to establish a new scoring method reliable and easy to perform in mice with SCI. Our Toyama Mouse Score (TMS) was established by rearranging and simplifying the BMS score and combining it with the Body Support Scale score (BSS). The TMS reflects changes in both body support ability and hindlimb movement. The definition of single score is made by combing multiple criteria in the BMS. The ambiguity was improved in the TMS. Using contusive SCI mice, hindlimb function was measured using the TMS, BMS and BSS systems. The TMS could distinguish changes in hindlimb movements that were evaluated as the same score by the BMS. An analysis of the coefficient of variation (CV) of score points recorded for 11 days revealed that the CV for the TMS was significantly lower than the CV obtained using the BMS. A variation in intra evaluators was lower in the TMS than in the BMS. These results suggest that the TMS may be useful as a new reliable method for scoring locomotor function for SCI models.

  11. Lower limb replantations: indications and a new scoring system.

    PubMed

    Battiston, Bruno; Tos, Pierluigi; Pontini, Italo; Ferrero, Sebastiano

    2002-01-01

    The need for reconstruction of lower limb amputations is increasing, due to high-energy trauma in road accidents and work-related injuries. The indication for lower limb replantation is still controversial. Compared with upper limb replantations, indications are more select due to the frequent complications in lower limb salvage procedures, such as severe general complications or local complications such as necrosis, infections, nonunions, the need for secondary lengthening, or other reconstructive procedures. The satisfactory results given by artificial prosthesis, such as quicker recovery time and fewer secondary procedures, also contribute to the higher degree of selection for lower limb replantation candidates. Since 1993, we have replanted 14 amputations of the lower limb in 12 patients, including 2 bilateral cases. Although survival of the replanted segment was obtained in all patients, 5 cases were subsequently amputated for severe secondary complications. Of the remaining 9 cases, evaluated by means of Chen criteria, 7 had good results (3 Chen I and 4 Chen II), 1 sufficient (Chen III), and 1 poor (Chen IV). The best results were obtained in young patients. Our experience led us to examine the necessity for careful, objective patient selection. We developed a score evaluation system by modifying the international classifying method for severe limb traumas (mangled extremity severity score, or MESS system). This relatively simple system, based on the retrospective study of our cases, considers several parameters (patient's age, general conditions, level and type of lesion, time of injury, and associated lesions), giving each one a score. The total score gives the indication for replantation, predicts the functional outcome, and facilitates decision-making.

  12. System Interdependency Modeling in the Design of Prognostic and Health Management Systems in Smart Manufacturing

    PubMed Central

    Malinowski, M.L.; Beling, P.A.; Haimes, Y.Y.; LaViers, A.; Marvel, J.A.; Weiss, B.A.

    2017-01-01

    The fields of risk analysis and prognostics and health management (PHM) have developed in a largely independent fashion. However, both fields share a common core goal. They aspire to manage future adverse consequences associated with prospective dysfunctions of the systems under consideration due to internal or external forces. This paper describes how two prominent risk analysis theories and methodologies – Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) and Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM) – can be adapted to support the design of PHM systems in the context of smart manufacturing processes. Specifically, the proposed methodologies will be used to identify targets – components, subsystems, or systems – that would most benefit from a PHM system in regards to achieving the following objectives: minimizing cost, minimizing production/maintenance time, maximizing system remaining usable life (RUL), maximizing product quality, and maximizing product output. HHM is a comprehensive modeling theory and methodology that is grounded on the premise that no system can be modeled effectively from a single perspective. It can also be used as an inductive method for scenario structuring to identify emergent forced changes (EFCs) in a system. EFCs connote trends in external or internal sources of risk to a system that may adversely affect specific states of the system. An important aspect of proactive risk management includes bolstering the resilience of the system for specific EFCs by appropriately controlling the states. Risk scenarios for specific EFCs can be the basis for the design of prognostic and diagnostic systems that provide real-time predictions and recognition of scenario changes. The HHM methodology includes visual modeling techniques that can enhance stakeholders’ understanding of shared states, resources, objectives and constraints among the interdependent and interconnected subsystems of smart manufacturing systems. In risk analysis, HHM is often

  13. Physiological risk factors, early warning scoring systems and organizational changes.

    PubMed

    Johnstone, Carolyn C; Rattray, Janice; Myers, Liz

    2007-01-01

    Currently, medical and surgical wards tend to have a higher number of sicker and more dependent patients. There is also a growing recognition that several indicators of acute deterioration are being missed, leading to adverse consequences for the patients. As a result, many initiatives have been designed to try to reduce these consequences, including the development of early warning scoring or track and trigger systems and medical response and critical care outreach teams. This paper briefly discusses the risk factors associated with acute deterioration, the use of early warning scoring or track and trigger systems and the role of outreach teams. The aim of this paper is to discuss the development and subsequent implementation of early warning scoring systems (EWS) or track and trigger systems. It will also discuss the associated organizational changes; the main organizational change discussed will be the introduction outreach teams. For this paper, a pragmatic search strategy was implemented using the following terms: early warning score and scoring, track and trigger systems, decision-making tools, critical care outreach and medical emergency teams. The databases used included CINHAL (1997-2007), Medline, Blackwell Synergy and Science Direct, as these would enable the retrieval of relevant literature in the area of triggering of response to acute deterioration in clinical condition. A 10-year limit was initially set, although review of the literature identified resulted in a widening of this to include some of the relevant (and occasionally more dated) literature referred to in these papers. A total of 645 were accessed; of these 135 were retrieved as they appeared to meet the inclusion criteria, but only 35 have been included in this review. The term decision-making tools accounted for the largest number (500), but most of these were irrelevant. EWS are not always used to their full potential, raising the question of their impact. The impact of outreach teams

  14. The prognostic significance of the 2014 International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grading system for prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Samaratunga, Hemamali; Delahunt, Brett; Gianduzzo, Troy; Coughlin, Geoff; Duffy, David; LeFevre, Ian; Johannsen, Shulammite; Egevad, Lars; Yaxley, John

    2015-10-01

    The 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) modified Gleason grading system was further amended in 2014 with the establishment of grade groupings (ISUP grading). This study examined the predictive value of ISUP grading, comparing results with recognised prognostic parameters.Of 3700 men undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP) reported at Aquesta Pathology between 2008 and 2013, 2079 also had a positive needle biopsy available for review. We examined the association between needle biopsy 2014 ISUP grade and 2005 modified Gleason score, tumour volume, pathological stage of the subsequent RP tumour, as well as biochemical recurrence-free survival (BRFS). The median age was 62 (range 32-79 years). Median serum prostate specific antigen was 5.9 (range 0.4-69 ng/mL). For needle biopsies, 280 (13.5%), 1031 (49.6%), 366 (17.6%), 77 (3.7%) and 325 (15.6%) were 2014 ISUP grades 1-5, respectively. Needle biopsy 2014 ISUP grade showed a significant association with RP tumour volume (p < 0.001), TNM pT and N stage (p < 0.001) and BRFS (p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazards regression model showed serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) at the time of diagnosis and ISUP grade >2 to be significantly associated with BRFS.This study provides evidence of the prognostic significance of ISUP grading for thin core needle biopsy of prostate.

  15. Comparison of scoring systems for assessment of acute mountain sickness.

    PubMed

    Wagner, Dale R; Teramoto, Masaru; Knott, Jonathan R; Fry, Jack P

    2012-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare three commonly used scoring systems of acute mountain sickness (AMS)-the 5-item Lake Louise Self-report (LLS), the 11-item abridged version of the Environmental Symptoms Questionnaire (ESQ-III), and a 100 mm visual analog scale (VAS)-on climbers (N=63; 34.6±9.9 years) making a 1-day ascent of a 5640 m peak after a rest of ~10 h at 4260 m. The prevalence of AMS was 63% when defined as LLS ≥3, 49% when defined as either LLS ≥5 or ESQ-III ≥0.7, and 41% when defined as the combined LLS and ESQ-III criteria. Despite the agreement in prevalence between the LLS ≥5 and ESQ-III ≥0.7, there was a discrepancy in AMS classification in 16% of the cases. A VAS cut-off point corresponding to the combined LLS and ESQ-III criteria was 16 mm. The sensitivity and specificity of the VAS for diagnosing AMS compared to combined LLS and ESQ-III criteria were 85% and 92%, respectively. All of the scoring systems were significantly correlated (τ=0.60 to 0.73, p<0.01); however, residual scores were large. We cannot recommend interchanging the diagnostic results from the LLS, ESQ-III, and VAS, and standardization is needed for the administration of the VAS.

  16. Prognostic accuracy of SIRS criteria, qSOFA score and GYM score for 30-day-mortality in older non-severely dependent infected patients attended in the emergency department.

    PubMed

    González Del Castillo, J; Julian-Jiménez, A; González-Martínez, F; Álvarez-Manzanares, J; Piñera, P; Navarro-Bustos, C; Martinez-Ortiz de Zarate, M; Llopis-Roca, F; Debán Fernández, M; Gamazo-Del Rio, J; García-Lamberechts, E J; Martín-Sánchez, F J

    2017-07-28

    The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score and GYM score to predict 30-day mortality in older non-severely dependent patients attended for an episode of infection in the emergency department (ED). We performed an analytical, observational, prospective cohort study including patients 75 years of age or older, without severe functional dependence, attended for an infectious process in 69 Spanish EDs for 2-day three-seasonal periods. Demographic, clinical and analytical data were collected. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality after the index event. We included 1071 patients, with a mean age of 83.6 [standard deviation (SD) 5.6] years; 544 (50.8%) were men. Seventy-two patients (6.5%) died within 30 days. SIRS criteria ≥ 2 had a sensitivity of 65% [95% confidence interval (CI) 53.1-75.9] and a specificity of 49% (95% CI 46.0-52.3), a qSOFA score ≥ 2 had a sensitivity of 28% (95% CI 18.2-39.8) and a specificity of 94% (95% CI 91.9-95.1), and a GYM score ≥ 1 had a sensitivity of 81% (95% CI 69.2-88.6) and a specificity of 45% (95% CI 41.6-47.9). A GYM score ≥ 1 and a qSOFA score ≥ 2 were the cut-offs with the highest sensitivity (p < 0.001) and specificity (p < 0.001), respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.73 (95% CI 0.66-0.79; p < 0.001) for the GYM score, 0.69 (95% CI 0.61-0.76; p < 0.001) for the qSOFA score and 0.65 (95% CI 0.59-0.72; p < 0.001) for SIRS. A GYM score ≥ 1 may be the most sensitive score and a qSOFA score ≥ 2 the most specific score to predict 30-day mortality in non-severely dependent older patients attended for acute infection in EDs.

  17. The prognostic significance of UCA1 for predicting clinical outcome in patients with digestive system malignancies

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Zheng-Ming

    2017-01-01

    Background Urothelial Carcinoma Associated 1 (UCA1) was an originally identified lncRNA in bladder cancer. Previous studies have reported that UCA1 played a significant role in various types of cancer. This study aimed to clarify the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. Results The meta-analysis of 15 studies were included, comprising 1441 patients with digestive system cancers. The pooled results of 14 studies indicated that high expression of UCA1 was significantly associated with poorer OS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR: 1.89, 95 % CI: 1.52–2.26). In addition, UCA1 could be as an independent prognostic factor for predicting OS of patients (HR: 1.85, 95 % CI: 1.45–2.25). The pooled results of 3 studies indicated a significant association between UCA1 and DFS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR = 2.50; 95 % CI = 1.30–3.69). Statistical significance was also observed in subgroup meta-analysis. Furthermore, the clinicopathological values of UCA1 were discussed in esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer. Materials and methods A comprehensive retrieval was performed to search studies evaluating the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. Many databases were involved, including PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang database. Quantitative meta-analysis was performed with standard statistical methods and the prognostic significance of UCA1 in digestive system cancers was qualified. Conclusions Elevated level of UCA1 indicated the poor clinical outcome for patients with digestive system cancers. It may serve as a new biomarker related to prognosis in digestive system cancers. PMID:28380443

  18. The prognostic significance of UCA1 for predicting clinical outcome in patients with digestive system malignancies.

    PubMed

    Liu, Fang-Teng; Dong, Qing; Gao, Hui; Zhu, Zheng-Ming

    2017-06-20

    Urothelial Carcinoma Associated 1 (UCA1) was an originally identified lncRNA in bladder cancer. Previous studies have reported that UCA1 played a significant role in various types of cancer. This study aimed to clarify the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. The meta-analysis of 15 studies were included, comprising 1441 patients with digestive system cancers. The pooled results of 14 studies indicated that high expression of UCA1 was significantly associated with poorer OS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR: 1.89, 95 % CI: 1.52-2.26). In addition, UCA1 could be as an independent prognostic factor for predicting OS of patients (HR: 1.85, 95 % CI: 1.45-2.25). The pooled results of 3 studies indicated a significant association between UCA1 and DFS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR = 2.50; 95 % CI = 1.30-3.69). Statistical significance was also observed in subgroup meta-analysis. Furthermore, the clinicopathological values of UCA1 were discussed in esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer. A comprehensive retrieval was performed to search studies evaluating the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. Many databases were involved, including PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang database. Quantitative meta-analysis was performed with standard statistical methods and the prognostic significance of UCA1 in digestive system cancers was qualified. Elevated level of UCA1 indicated the poor clinical outcome for patients with digestive system cancers. It may serve as a new biomarker related to prognosis in digestive system cancers.

  19. Quantification of the Balance Error Scoring System with Mobile Technology.

    PubMed

    Alberts, Jay L; Thota, Anil; Hirsch, Joshua; Ozinga, Sarah; Dey, Tanujit; Schindler, David D; Koop, Mandy M; Burke, Daniel; Linder, Susan M

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this project was to develop a biomechanically based quantification of the Balance Error Scoring System (BESS) using data derived from the accelerometer and gyroscope of a mobile tablet device. Thirty-two healthy young adults completed the BESS while an iPad was positioned at the sacrum. Data from the iPad were compared to position data gathered from a three-dimensional motion capture system. Peak-to-peak (P2P), normalized path length (NPL), and root mean squared (RMS) were calculated for each system and compared. Additionally, a 95% ellipsoid volume, iBESS volume, was calculated using center of mass (CoM) movements in the anteroposterior (AP), mediolateral (ML), and trunk rotation planes of movement to provide a comprehensive, 3D metric of postural stability. Across all kinematic outcomes, data from the iPad were significantly correlated with the same outcomes derived from the motion capture system (rho range, 0.37-0.94; P < 0.05). The iBESS volume metric was able to detect a difference in postural stability across stance and surface, showing a significant increase in volume in increasingly difficult conditions, whereas traditional error scoring was not as sensitive to these factors. The kinematic data provided by the iPad are of sufficient quality relative to motion capture data to accurately quantify postural stability in healthy young adults. The iBESS volume provides a more sensitive measure of postural stability than error scoring alone, particularly in conditions 1 and 4, which often suffer from floor effects, and condition 5, which can experience ceiling effects. The iBESS metric is ideally suited for clinical and in the field applications in which characterizing postural stability is of interest.

  20. Quantification of the Balance Error Scoring System with Mobile Technology

    PubMed Central

    Alberts, Jay L.; Thota, Anil; Hirsch, Joshua; Ozinga, Sarah; Dey, Tanujit; Schindler, David D.; Koop, Mandy Miller; Burke, Daniel; Linder, Susan M.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this project was to develop a biomechanically based quantification of the Balance Error Scoring System (BESS) using data derived from the accelerometer and gyroscope of a mobile tablet device. Methods Thirty-two healthy youth and adults completed the BESS while an iPad was positioned at the sacrum. Data from the iPad data was compared to position data gathered from a 3D motion capture system. Peak-to-peak (P2P), normalized path length (NPL), and root mean squared (RMS) were calculated for each system and compared. Additionally, a 95% ellipsoid volume, iBESS volume, was calculated using center of mass (COM) movements in the anterior-posterior (AP), mediolateral (ML), and trunk rotation planes of movement to provide a comprehensive, 3-dimensional metric of postural stability. Results Across all kinematic outcomes, data from the iPad were significantly correlated with the same outcomes derived from the motion capture system (Rho range: 0.37- 0.94, p<0.05). The iBESS volume metric was able to detect a difference in postural stability across stance and surface, showing a significant increase in volume in increasingly difficult conditions, while traditional error scoring was not as sensitive to these factors. Conclusions The kinematic data provided by the iPad is of sufficient quality relative to motion capture data to accurately quantify postural stability in healthy young adults. The iBESS volume provides a more sensitive measure of postural stability than error scoring alone, particularly in conditions 1 and 4, which often suffer from floor effects, and condition 5, which can experience ceiling effects. The iBESS metric is ideally suited for clinical and in the field applications in which characterizing postural stability is of interest. PMID:26378948

  1. New Comprehensive Cytogenetic Scoring System for Primary Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) and Oligoblastic Acute Myeloid Leukemia After MDS Derived From an International Database Merge

    PubMed Central

    Schanz, Julie; Tüchler, Heinz; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Luño, Elisa; Cervera, José; Granada, Isabel; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Steidl, Christian; Fonatsch, Christa; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Valent, Peter; Giagounidis, Aristoteles; Aul, Carlo; Lübbert, Michael; Stauder, Reinhard; Krieger, Otto; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Faderl, Stefan; Pierce, Sherry; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Bennett, John M.; Greenberg, Peter; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef

    2012-01-01

    Purpose The karyotype is a strong independent prognostic factor in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Since the implementation of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) in 1997, knowledge concerning the prognostic impact of abnormalities has increased substantially. The present study proposes a new and comprehensive cytogenetic scoring system based on an international data collection of 2,902 patients. Patients and Methods Patients were included from the German-Austrian MDS Study Group (n = 1,193), the International MDS Risk Analysis Workshop (n = 816), the Spanish Hematological Cytogenetics Working Group (n = 849), and the International Working Group on MDS Cytogenetics (n = 44) databases. Patients with primary MDS and oligoblastic acute myeloid leukemia (AML) after MDS treated with supportive care only were evaluated for overall survival (OS) and AML evolution. Internal validation by bootstrap analysis and external validation in an independent patient cohort were performed to confirm the results. Results In total, 19 cytogenetic categories were defined, providing clear prognostic classification in 91% of all patients. The abnormalities were classified into five prognostic subgroups (P < .001): very good (median OS, 61 months; hazard ratio [HR], 0.5; n = 81); good (49 months; HR, 1.0 [reference category]; n = 1,809); intermediate (26 months; HR, 1.6; n = 529); poor (16 months; HR, 2.6; n = 148); and very poor (6 months; HR, 4.2; n = 187). The internal and external validations confirmed the results of the score. Conclusion In conclusion, these data should contribute to the ongoing efforts to update the IPSS by refining the cytogenetic risk categories. PMID:22331955

  2. Prognostic Value of the CHADS2 Score for Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Coronary Artery Disease Patients Without Atrial Fibrillation-A Multi-Center Observational Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Tabata, Noriaki; Yamamoto, Eiichiro; Hokimoto, Seiji; Yamashita, Takayoshi; Sueta, Daisuke; Takashio, Seiji; Arima, Yuichiro; Izumiya, Yasuhiro; Kojima, Sunao; Kaikita, Koichi; Matsui, Kunihiko; Fujimoto, Kazuteru; Sakamoto, Kenji; Shimomura, Hideki; Tsunoda, Ryusuke; Hirose, Toyoki; Nakamura, Natsuki; Sakaino, Naritsugu; Nakamura, Shinichi; Yamamoto, Nobuyasu; Matsumura, Toshiyuki; Kajiwara, Ichiro; Koide, Shunichi; Sakamoto, Tomohiro; Nakao, Koichi; Oshima, Shuichi; Tsujita, Kenichi

    2017-08-16

    The CHADS2 score has mainly been used to predict the likelihood of cerebrovascular accidents in patients with atrial fibrillation. However, increasing attention is being paid to this scoring system for risk stratification of patients with coronary artery disease. We investigated the value of the CHADS2 score in predicting cardiovascular/cerebrovascular events in coronary artery disease patients without atrial fibrillation. This was a multicenter, observational cohort study. The subjects had been admitted to one of the participating institutions with coronary artery disease requiring percutaneous coronary intervention. We calculated the CHADS2 scores for 7082 patients (mean age, 69.7 years; males, 71.9%) without clinical evidence of atrial fibrillation. Subjects were subdivided into low- (0-1), intermediate- (2-3), and high-score (4-6) groups and followed for 1 year. The end point was a composite of cardiovascular/cerebrovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke at 1-year follow-up. Rates of triple-vessel/left main trunk disease correlated positively with CHADS2 score categories. CHADS2 scores among single, double, and triple-vessel/left main trunk groups were 2 (1-2), 2 (1-3), and 2 (2-3), respectively (P<0.001). A total of 194 patients (2.8%) had a cardiovascular/cerebrovascular event, and Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significantly higher probability of cardiovascular/cerebrovascular events in proportion to a higher CHADS2 score (log-rank test, P<0.001). Multivariate Cox hazard analysis identified CHADS2 score (per 1 point) as an independent predictor of cardiovascular/cerebrovascular events (hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.17-1.47; P<0.001). This large cohort study indicated that the CHADS2 score is useful for the prediction of cardiovascular/cerebrovascular events in coronary artery disease patients without atrial fibrillation. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  3. Scoring systems for the characterization of sepsis and associated outcomes

    PubMed Central

    McLymont, Natalie

    2016-01-01

    Sepsis is responsible for the utilisation of a significant proportion of healthcare resources and has high mortality rates. Early diagnosis and prompt interventions are associated with better outcomes but is impeded by a lack of diagnostic tools and the heterogeneous and enigmatic nature of sepsis. The recently updated definitions of sepsis have moved away from the centrality of inflammation and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria which have been shown to be non-specific. Sepsis is now defined as a “life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection”. The Quick (q) Sequential (Sepsis-related) Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is proposed as a surrogate for organ dysfunction and may act as a risk predictor for patients with known or suspected infection, as well as being a prompt for clinicians to consider the diagnosis of sepsis. Early warning scores (EWS) are track and trigger physiological monitoring systems that have become integrated within many healthcare systems for the detection of acutely deteriorating patients. The recent study by Churpek and colleagues sought to compare qSOFA to more established alerting criteria in a population of patients with presumed infection, and compared the ability to predict death or unplanned intensive care unit (ICU) admission. This perspective paper discusses recent advances in the diagnostic criteria for sepsis and how qSOFA may fit into the pre-existing models of acute care and sepsis quality improvement. PMID:28149888

  4. Scoring systems for the characterization of sepsis and associated outcomes.

    PubMed

    McLymont, Natalie; Glover, Guy W

    2016-12-01

    Sepsis is responsible for the utilisation of a significant proportion of healthcare resources and has high mortality rates. Early diagnosis and prompt interventions are associated with better outcomes but is impeded by a lack of diagnostic tools and the heterogeneous and enigmatic nature of sepsis. The recently updated definitions of sepsis have moved away from the centrality of inflammation and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria which have been shown to be non-specific. Sepsis is now defined as a "life-threatening organ dysfunction caused by a dysregulated host response to infection". The Quick (q) Sequential (Sepsis-related) Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is proposed as a surrogate for organ dysfunction and may act as a risk predictor for patients with known or suspected infection, as well as being a prompt for clinicians to consider the diagnosis of sepsis. Early warning scores (EWS) are track and trigger physiological monitoring systems that have become integrated within many healthcare systems for the detection of acutely deteriorating patients. The recent study by Churpek and colleagues sought to compare qSOFA to more established alerting criteria in a population of patients with presumed infection, and compared the ability to predict death or unplanned intensive care unit (ICU) admission. This perspective paper discusses recent advances in the diagnostic criteria for sepsis and how qSOFA may fit into the pre-existing models of acute care and sepsis quality improvement.

  5. [The NAS system: Nursing Activities Score in mobile technology].

    PubMed

    Catalan, Vanessa Menezes; Silveira, Denise Tolfo; Neutzling, Agnes Ludwig; Martinato, Luísa Helena Machado; Borges, Gilberto Cabral de Mello

    2011-12-01

    The objective of this study was to present the computerized structure that enables the use of the Nursing Activities Score (NAS) in mobile technology. It is a project for the development of technology production based on software engineering, founded on the theory of systems development life cycle. The NAS system was built in two modules: the search module, which is accessed using a personal computer (PC), and Data Collection module, which is accessed through a mobile device (Smartphone). The NAS system was constructed to allow other forms, in addition to the NAS tool, to be included in the future. Thus, it is understood that the development of the NAS will bring nurses closer to mobile technology and facilitate their accessibility to the data of the instrument relating to patients, thus assisting in decision-making and in staffing to provide nursing care.

  6. Correlation and prognostic role of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and SYNTAX score in patients with acute myocardial infarction treated with percutaneous coronary intervention: A six-year experience.

    PubMed

    Zuin, Marco; Rigatelli, Gianluca; Picariello, Claudio; dell'Avvocata, Fabio; Marcantoni, Lina; Pastore, Gianni; Carraro, Mauro; Nanjundappa, Aravinda; Faggian, Giuseppe; Roncon, Loris

    2017-05-12

    The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been proposed as a prognostic marker in acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The aim of our study is to demonstrates the correlation between SYNTAX score (SXs) and NLR and its association with 1-year cardiovascular (CV) mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) or non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Over 6 consecutive years, (1st January 2010 and 1st January 2016) 6560 patients (4841 males and 1719 females, mean age 64.36±11.77years) were admitted for AMI and treated with PCI within 24-h. The study population was divided into tertiles based on the SXs. Both in STEMI and NSTEMI groups, neutrophils and the SXs were significantly higher (p<0.0001) in upper versus lower among NLR tertiles and a significant correlation was found between the NLR and SXs (r=0.617, p<0.0001 and r=0.252, p<0.0001 for STEMI and NSTEMI groups, respectively). One-year CV mortality significantly raised up among the NLR tertiles in both STEMI and NSTEMI patients (p<0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that, after adjusting SXs and PAD, an NLR (≥3.9 and ≥2.7 for STEMI and NTEMI patients, respectively) was an independent significant predictor of 1-year CV mortality (OR 2.85, 95% CI 1.54-5.26, p=0.001 and OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.62-4.07, p<0.0001 for STEMI and NSTEMI respectively.) CONCLUSIONS: NLR significantly correlates with SXs and is associated with 1-year CV mortality in patients with STEMI or NSTEMI treated with PCI within 24-h. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. A quantified risk-scoring system and rating model for postsurgical gastroparesis syndrome in gastric cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xiao-Dong; Mao, Chen-Chen; Zhang, Wei-Teng; Lin, Ji; Wu, Rui-Sen; Zhang, Feng-Min; Sun, Xiang-Wei; Chi, Chu-Huai; Shen, Xian; Wang, Peng-Fei

    2017-09-01

    The study aimed to investigate the relationship between obesity and postsurgical gastroparesis syndrome (PGS), and to construct a scoring system and a risk model to identify patients at high risk. A total of 634 patients were retrospectively analyzed. Clinical characteristics were evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Logistic analysis was performed to determine the independent predictive indicators of PGS. A scoring system consisting of these indicators and a risk-rating model were constructed and evaluated via ROC curve analysis. Based on the ROC curves, the visceral fat area (VFA) cutoff value for PGS was 94.00. Logistic analysis showed that visceral obesity (VFA ≥ 94.00 cm(2) ), the reconstruction technique, and tumor size were independent prognostic factors for PGS. The scoring system could predict PGS reliably with a high area under the ROC curve ([AUC] = 0.769). A high-risk rating had a high AUC (AUC I = 0.56, AUC II = 0.65, and AUC III = 0.77), indicating that the risk-rating model could effectively screen patients at high risk of PGS. Visceral obesity defined by VFA effectively predicted PGS. Our scoring system may be a reliable instrument for identifying patients most at risk of PGS. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Prognostic factors for open globe injuries and correlation of Ocular Trauma Score at a tertiary referral eye care centre in Singapore

    PubMed Central

    Agrawal, Rupesh; Wei, Ho Sue; Teoh, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the factors influencing final vision outcome after surgical repair of open globe injuries and to correlate the Ocular trauma score. Materials and Methods: Retrospective case analysis of patients with open globe injuries at a tertiary referral eye care centre in Singapore was performed. Pre-operative factors affecting final vision outcome in patients with open globe injury and correlation of ocular trauma score in our study with international ocular trauma scoring system was performed. Results: Case records of 172 eyes with open globe injury were analyzed. Mean age was 36. 67 years. Mean follow up was 12.26 m. Males were pre-dominantly affected. Initial visual acuity was ≥20/40, 20/50 < 20/200, 20/200- CF, HM– PL and NLP in 24 (14%), 39 (22.7%), 16 (9.3%), 66 (38.4%) and 27 (15.7%) eyes respectively. Final visual acuity was ≤20/40, 20/50 < 20/200, 20/200- 1/200, HM– PL and NLP in 76 (44.2%), 28 (16.3%), 11 (6.4%), 30 (17.4%) and 27 (15.7%) eyes respectively. Ocular trauma score in our study correlates with international ocular trauma scoring system. Conclusion: The present study showed pre-operative variables such as mode of injury, pre-operative visual acuity, traumatic cataract, hyphaema, relative afferent papillary defect, vitreous lossand vitreous hemorrhage to be adversely affecting the final vision outcome. Our study showed a good synchrony with international ocular trauma score (OTS) and based on this study we were able to validate application of OTS in Singapore population. Recognizing these factors can help the surgeon in evidence based counseling. PMID:24104709

  9. Prognostic factors for open globe injuries and correlation of ocular trauma score at a tertiary referral eye care centre in Singapore.

    PubMed

    Agrawal, Rupesh; Wei, Ho Sue; Teoh, Stephen

    2013-09-01

    To evaluate the factors influencing final vision outcome after surgical repair of open globe injuries and to correlate the Ocular trauma score. Retrospective case analysis of patients with open globe injuries at a tertiary referral eye care centre in Singapore was performed. Pre-operative factors affecting final vision outcome in patients with open globe injury and correlation of ocular trauma score in our study with international ocular trauma scoring system was performed. Case records of 172 eyes with open globe injury were analyzed. Mean age was 36. 67 years. Mean follow up was 12.26 m. Males were pre-dominantly affected. Initial visual acuity was ≥ 20/40, 20/50 < 20/200, 20/200- CF, HM- PL and NLP in 24 (14%), 39 (22.7%), 16 (9.3%), 66 (38.4%) and 27 (15.7%) eyes respectively. Final visual acuity was ≤ 20/40, 20/50 < 20/200, 20/200- 1/200, HM- PL and NLP in 76 (44.2%), 28 (16.3%), 11 (6.4%), 30 (17.4%) and 27 (15.7%) eyes respectively. Ocular trauma score in our study correlates with international ocular trauma scoring system. The present study showed pre-operative variables such as mode of injury, pre-operative visual acuity, traumatic cataract, hyphaema, relative afferent papillary defect, vitreous lossand vitreous hemorrhage to be adversely affecting the final vision outcome. Our study showed a good synchrony with international ocular trauma score (OTS) and based on this study we were able to validate application of OTS in Singapore population. Recognizing these factors can help the surgeon in evidence based counseling.

  10. S-score: a scoring system for the identification and prioritization of predicted cancer genes.

    PubMed

    de Souza, Jorge E S; Fonseca, André F; Valieris, Renan; Carraro, Dirce M; Wang, Jean Y J; Kolodner, Richard D; de Souza, Sandro J

    2014-01-01

    A new method, which allows for the identification and prioritization of predicted cancer genes for future analysis, is presented. This method generates a gene-specific score called the "S-Score" by incorporating data from different types of analysis including mutation screening, methylation status, copy-number variation and expression profiling. The method was applied to the data from The Cancer Genome Atlas and allowed the identification of known and potentially new oncogenes and tumor suppressors associated with different clinical features including shortest term of survival in ovarian cancer patients and hormonal subtypes in breast cancer patients. Furthermore, for the first time a genome-wide search for genes that behave as oncogenes and tumor suppressors in different tumor types was performed. We envisage that the S-score can be used as a standard method for the identification and prioritization of cancer genes for follow-up studies.

  11. A scoring system based on artificial neural network for predicting 10-year survival in stage II A colon cancer patients after radical surgery.

    PubMed

    Peng, Jian-Hong; Fang, Yu-Jing; Li, Cai-Xia; Ou, Qing-Jian; Jiang, Wu; Lu, Shi-Xun; Lu, Zhen-Hai; Li, Pei-Xing; Yun, Jing-Ping; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Wan, De Sen

    2016-04-19

    Nearly 20% patients with stage II A colon cancer will develop recurrent disease post-operatively. The present study aims to develop a scoring system based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting 10-year survival outcome. The clinical and molecular data of 117 stage II A colon cancer patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were used for training set and test set; poor pathological grading (score 49), reduced expression of TGFBR2 (score 33), over-expression of TGF-β (score 45), MAPK (score 32), pin1 (score 100), β-catenin in tumor tissue (score 50) and reduced expression of TGF-β in normal mucosa (score 22) were selected as the prognostic risk predictors. According to the developed scoring system, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups, which were supposed with higher, moderate and lower risk levels. As a result, for the 3 subgroups, the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 16.7%, 62.9% and 100% (P < 0.001); and the 10-year disease free survival (DFS) rates were 16.7%, 61.8% and 98.8% (P < 0.001) respectively. It showed that this scoring system for stage II A colon cancer could help to predict long-term survival and screen out high-risk individuals for more vigorous treatment.

  12. An Early Warning Scoring System to Identify Septic Patients in the Prehospital Setting: The PRESEP Score.

    PubMed

    Bayer, Ole; Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Stumme, Christoph; Stacke, Angelika; Hartog, Christiane S; Hohenstein, Christian; Kabisch, Björn; Reichel, Jens; Reinhart, Konrad; Winning, Johannes

    2015-07-01

    The objective was to develop and evaluate an early sepsis detection score for the prehospital setting. A retrospective analysis of consecutive patients who were admitted by emergency medical services (EMS) to the emergency department of the Jena University Hospital was performed. Because potential predictors for sepsis should be based on consensus criteria, the following parameters were extracted from the EMS protocol for further analysis: temperature, heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), oxygen saturation (SaO2 ), Glasgow Coma Scale score, blood glucose, and systolic blood pressure (sBP). Potential predictors were stratified based on inspection of Loess graphs. Backward model selection was performed to select risk factors for the final model. The Prehospital Early Sepsis Detection (PRESEP) score was calculated as the sum of simplified regression weights. Its predictive validity was compared to the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), the Robson screening tool, and the BAS 90-30-90. A total of 375 patients were included in the derivation sample; 93 (24.8%) of these had sepsis, including 60 patients with severe sepsis and 12 patients with septic shock. Backward model selection identified temperature, HR, RR, SaO2 , and sBP for inclusion in the PRESEP score. Simplified weights were as follows: temperature > 38°C = 4, temperature < 36°C = 1, HR > 90 beats/min = 2, RR > 22 breaths/min = 1, SaO2 < 92% = 2, and sBP < 90 mm Hg = 2. The cutoff value for a possible existing septic disease based on maximum Youden's index was ≥4 (sensitivity 0.85, specificity 0.86, positive predictive value [PPV] 0.66, and negative predictive value [NPV] 0.95). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the PRESEP score was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.89 to 0.96) and was larger than the AUC of the MEWS (0.93 vs. 0.77, p < 0.001). The PRESEP score surpassed MEWS and BAS 90-60-90 for sensitivity (0.74 and 0.62, respectively), specificity (0.75 and 0

  13. Prediction of nosocomial sepsis in neonates by means of a computer-weighted bedside scoring system (NOSEP score)

    PubMed

    Mahieu, L M; De Muynck, A O; De Dooy, J J; Laroche, S M; Van Acker, K J

    2000-06-01

    To develop an easy-to-use bedside scoring system, composed of clinical variables, hematologic variables, and risk factors of infection, to predict nosocomial sepsis in neonatal intensive care unit patients. A neonatal intensive care unit in a university hospital, Antwerp, Belgium. Over 2 yrs, we analyzed two groups of patients. First, we prospectively studied 104 episodes of presumed nosocomial sepsis in 80 neonates (derivation cohort), and then we retrospectively studied 50 episodes in 39 neonates (validation cohort). None. We developed two versions of a scoring system to predict nosocomial sepsis in sick neonates. The first scoring system (NOSEP-1 score) was based on 15 clinical, 12 laboratory, and 17 historical variables potentially connected with infection; the second one (NOSEP-2 score) also included the culture results of central vascular catheters. Based on the odds ratios of all independent variables, an additive and weighted score was developed and validated in a cohort of 39 patients screened for nosocomial sepsis in the same center. The NOSEP-1 score consisted of three laboratory variables (C-reactive protein > or =14 mg/L, thrombocytopenia <150 x 10(9)/L, and neutrophil fraction >50%), one clinical factor (fever >38.2 degrees C [100.8 degrees F]), and one risk factor (parenteral nutrition for > or =14 days). The NOSEP-2 score consisted of the same variables plus catheter-hub and catheter insertion site colonization data. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis demonstrated good predictor performance of the NOSEP-1 score (area under the curve [Az] = 0.82 +/- 0.04 [SEM]) and NOSEP-2 score (Az = 0.84 +/- 0.04, p < .05). We checked whether a complex computer-generated scoring system (CD-1 and CD-2 scores) based on the original numerical values of the items used in NOSEP-1 and NOSEP-2 would improve the prediction of nosocomial sepsis. The analysis showed the accuracy of bedside NOSEP-1 and NOSEP-2 scores to be comparable with the more cumbersome

  14. Reliability of clinician scoring of the landing error scoring system to assess jump-landing movement patterns.

    PubMed

    Markbreiter, Jessica G; Sagon, Bronson K; Valovich McLeod, Tamara C; Welch, Cailee E

    2015-05-01

    Clinical Scenario: An individual's movement patterns while landing from a jump can predispose him or her to lower-extremity injury, if performed improperly. The Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) is a clinical tool to assess jump-landing biomechanics as an individual jumps forward from a box. Improper movement patterns, which could predispose an individual to lower-extremity injuries, are scored as errors. However, because of the subjective nature of scoring errors during the task, the consistency and reliability of scoring the task are important. Since the LESS is a newer assessment tool, it is important to understand its reliability. Focused Clinical Question: Are clinicians reliable at scoring the LESS to assess jump-landing biomechanics of physically active individuals?

  15. Intensive care unit scoring systems outperform emergency department scoring systems for mortality prediction in critically ill patients: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Multiple scoring systems have been developed for both the intensive care unit (ICU) and the emergency department (ED) to risk stratify patients and predict mortality. However, it remains unclear whether the additional data needed to compute ICU scores improves mortality prediction for critically ill patients compared to the simpler ED scores. Methods We studied a prospective observational cohort of 227 critically ill patients admitted to the ICU directly from the ED at an academic, tertiary care medical center. We compared Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, APACHE III, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), Prince of Wales Emergency Department Score (PEDS), and a pre-hospital critical illness prediction score developed by Seymour et al. (JAMA 2010, 304(7):747–754). The primary endpoint was 60-day mortality. We compared the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the different scores and their calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and visual assessment. Results The ICU scores outperformed the ED scores with higher area under the curve (AUC) values (p = 0.01). There were no differences in discrimination among the ED-based scoring systems (AUC 0.698 to 0.742; p = 0.45) or among the ICU-based scoring systems (AUC 0.779 to 0.799; p = 0.60). With the exception of the Seymour score, the ED-based scoring systems did not discriminate as well as the best-performing ICU-based scoring system, APACHE III (p = 0.005 to 0.01 for comparison of ED scores to APACHE III). The Seymour score had a superior AUC to other ED scores and, despite a lower AUC than all the ICU scores, was not significantly different than APACHE III (p = 0.09). When data from the first 24 h in the ICU was used to calculate the ED scores, the AUC for the ED scores improved numerically, but this improvement was not statistically significant

  16. Description and validation of a scoring system for tomosynthesis in pulmonary cystic fibrosis.

    PubMed

    Vult von Steyern, Kristina; Björkman-Burtscher, Isabella M; Höglund, Peter; Bozovic, Gracijela; Wiklund, Marie; Geijer, Mats

    2012-12-01

    To design and validate a scoring system for tomosynthesis (digital tomography) in pulmonary cystic fibrosis. A scoring system dedicated to tomosynthesis in pulmonary cystic fibrosis was designed. Three radiologists independently scored 88 pairs of radiographs and tomosynthesis examinations of the chest in 60 patients with cystic fibrosis and 7 oncology patients. Radiographs were scored according to the Brasfield scoring system and tomosynthesis examinations were scored using the new scoring system. Observer agreements for the tomosynthesis score were almost perfect for the total score with square-weighted kappa >0.90, and generally substantial to almost perfect for subscores. Correlation between the tomosynthesis score and the Brasfield score was good for the three observers (Kendall's rank correlation tau 0.68, 0.77 and 0.78). Tomosynthesis was generally scored higher as a percentage of the maximum score. Observer agreements for the total score for Brasfield score were almost perfect (square-weighted kappa 0.80, 0.81 and 0.85). The tomosynthesis scoring system seems robust and correlates well with the Brasfield score. Compared with radiography, tomosynthesis is more sensitive to cystic fibrosis changes, especially bronchiectasis and mucus plugging, and the new tomosynthesis scoring system offers the possibility of more detailed and accurate scoring of disease severity. Tomosynthesis is more sensitive than conventional radiography for pulmonary cystic fibrosis changes. The radiation dose from chest tomosynthesis is low compared with computed tomography. Tomosynthesis may become useful in the regular follow-up of patients with cystic fibrosis.

  17. Comparison of risk of local-regional recurrence after mastectomy or breast conservation therapy for patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiation stratified according to a prognostic index score

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Eugene H.; Strom, Eric A.; Perkins, George H.; Oh, Julia L.; Chen, Allen M.; Meric-Bernstam, Funda; Hunt, Kelly K.; Sahin, Aysegul A.; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N.; Buchholz, Thomas A. . E-mail: tbuchhol@mdanderson.org

    2006-10-01

    Purpose: We previously developed a prognostic index that stratified patients treated with breast conservation therapy (BCT) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy into groups with different risks for local-regional recurrence (LRR). The purpose of this study was to compare the rates of LRR as a function of prognostic index score for patients treated with BCT or mastectomy plus radiation after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 815 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation. Patients were assigned an index score from 0 to 4 and given 1 point for the presence of each factor: clinical N2 to N3 disease, lymphovascular invasion, pathologic size >2 cm, and multifocal residual disease. Results: The 10-year LRR rates were very low and similar between the mastectomy and BCT groups for patients with an index score of 0 or 1. For patients with a score of 2, LRR trended lower for those treated with mastectomy vs. BCT (12% vs. 28%, p = 0.28). For patients with a score of 3 to 4, LRR was significantly lower for those treated with mastectomy vs. BCT (19% vs. 61%, p = 0.009). Conclusions: This analysis suggests that BCT can provide excellent local-regional treatment for the vast majority of patients after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. For the few patients with a score of 3 to 4, LRR was >60% after BCT and was <20% with mastectomy. If these findings are confirmed in larger randomized studies, the prognostic index may be useful in helping to select the type of surgical treatment for patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation.

  18. Risk factors in germ cell tumour patients with relapse or progressive disease after first-line chemotherapy: evaluation of a prognostic score for survival after high-dose chemotherapy.

    PubMed

    Sammler, C; Beyer, J; Bokemeyer, C; Hartmann, J T; Rick, O

    2008-01-01

    To retrospectively re-evaluate a published prognostic score for response to salvage treatment in patients with germ-cell tumours relapsing or progressing after cisplatin-based first-line chemotherapy. From a database of 257 germ cell tumour (GCT) patients treated with salvage high-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) we identified 176 patients (67%) with relapse or progression after first-line conventional-dose chemotherapy (CDCT). Patients were retrospectively grouped according to a published prognostic score defined by Fossa and colleagues [Fossa SD, Stenning SP, Gerl A, et al. Prognostic factors in patients progressing after cisplatin-based chemotherapy for malignant non-seminomatous germ cell tumors. Br J Cancer 1999; 80:1392-9]. Overall survival (OS) and event free survival (EFS) after HDCT were retrospectively evaluated in each prognostic group. After a median follow-up of 9 years the OS probability for all 176 patients was 38% and the EFS probability was 35%. The respective survival probability at 5 years in 100/176 (57%) good prognosis patients and 76/176 (43%) poor prognosis patients were 47% versus 28% for OS (p<0.001) and 41% versus 26% for EFS (p<0.005). Whereas survival probabilities did not differ in good prognosis patients, OS and EFS in poor prognosis patients were substantially better in the current series of patients treated with HDCT compared to the ones reported by Fossa treated with CDCT. This retrospective analysis confirms the impact of prognostic factors on the results of salvage treatment in patients with GCT and suggests a clinical benefit for patients with poor prognosis features receiving a single course of HDCT.

  19. Developing and Implementing the AJCC Prognostic System for Breast Cancer.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1997-08-01

    patients by outcome. A measure of discriminative accuracy is being created to assess the accuracy of the artificial neural networks ’ predictions. We are...and Systems in Oncology. Kluwer Academic Publishers, in preparation. Burke HB (ed). Artificial Neural Networks in Medicine. Kluwer Academic Publishers...429-437. Burke HB, Goodman PH, Rosen DB, Henson DE, Weinstein JN, Harrell Jr. FE, Marks JR, Winchester DP, Bostwick DG. Artificial neural networks improve

  20. Pre-fracture quality of life predicts 1-year survival in elderly patients with hip fracture-development of a new scoring system.

    PubMed

    Bliemel, C; Sielski, R; Doering, B; Dodel, R; Balzer-Geldsetzer, M; Ruchholtz, S; Buecking, B

    2016-06-01

    Hip fractures are common in elderly people. Despite great progress in surgical care, the outcome of patients with hip fracture remains disappointing. This study determined four prognostic factors (lower ASA score, higher pre-fracture EQ-5D index, higher MMSE score, and female gender) to predict 1-year survival in patients with hip fracture. This study determined the prognostic factors for 1-year survival in patients with hip fracture. Based on these predictors, a scoring system was developed for use upon patients' admission to the hospital. Hip fracture patients, aged ≥60 years, were prospectively enrolled. Upon admission, patients' sociodemographic data, type of fracture, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, health-related quality of life scores (EQ-5D index) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores were recorded, among other parameters. Correlational analysis was performed on all potential variables to identify relevant predictor variables of 1-year survival. Univariate regression analysis was performed on all selected variables, followed by a multivariate analysis for variables that were significant in the univariate analysis. The final score was developed by converting the β-coefficients of each variable from the multivariate analysis into a scoring system. For 391 hip fracture patients, complete data were available at the time of the 1-year follow-up. In multivariate regression analysis, independent predictors of 1-year survival were lower ASA score, higher pre-fracture EQ-5D index, higher MMSE score, and female gender. The different variables were weighted according to their β-coefficient to build the prognostic score, which ranged from 0 to 10 points. The ROC curve for 1-year mortality after hip fracture showed an area under the curve of 0.74 (R (2) = 0.272; 95 % CI 0.68-0.79; p < 0.001). With only four instruments, the new score represents a useful tool for estimating 1-year survival in elderly patients with hip fractures

  1. V-CLIP: Integrating plasma VEGF into a new scoring system to stratify patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma for clinical trials

    PubMed Central

    Kaseb, Ahmed O.; Hassan, Manal M.; Lin, E; Xiao, Lianchun; Kumar, Vikas; Pathak, Priyanka; Lozano, Richard; Rashid, Asif; Abbruzzese, James L.; Morris, Jeffrey S.

    2010-01-01

    Background Several staging systems have been proposed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), however, none has incorporated circulating angiogenic biomarkers. This study sought to determine whether vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) could independently predict overall survival in patients with HCC, and whether adding VEGF level into the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score could improve patients stratification and prediction of overall survival. Methods Between 2001 and 2008, baseline plasma VEGF levels were available from 288 patients and multivariate Cox regression models and median survival (95% confidence intervals) were calculated. Recursive partitioning was used to determine the optimal cut point for VEGF, using 10 repeated training/validation samples, each using 2/3 of the data to determine the best cut point and the remaining 1/3 to validate it. Prognostic ability of CLIP and V-CLIP was compared using C-index. Results Plasma VEGF was a significant independent predictor of overall survival, with an optimal VEGF cut point of 450 pg/ml. After CLIP validation in our patients, we added VEGF to the CLIP score and found that the new V-CLIP score better separates patients into homogenous prognostic groups (p-value=0.005). Conclusion The assessment of baseline plasma VEGF levels increases the precision of the CLIP scoring system for predicting HCC prognosis, which may assist in equally randomizing patients with HCC in clinical trials. Prospective validation of the V-CLIP scoring system is warranted. PMID:24048796

  2. Scoring systems in the intensive care unit: A compendium

    PubMed Central

    Rapsang, Amy Grace; Shyam, Devajit C.

    2014-01-01

    Severity scales are important adjuncts of treatment in the intensive care unit (ICU) in order to predict patient outcome, comparing quality-of-care and stratification for clinical trials. Even though disease severity scores are not the key elements of treatment, they are however, an essential part of improvement in clinical decisions and in identifying patients with unexpected outcomes. Prediction models do face many challenges, but, proper application of these models helps in decision making at the right time and in decreasing hospital cost. In fact, they have become a necessary tool to describe ICU populations and to explain differences in mortality. However, it is also important to note that the choice of the severity score scale, index, or model should accurately match the event, setting or application; as mis-application, of such systems can lead to wastage of time, increased cost, unwarranted extrapolations and poor science. This article provides a brief overview of ICU severity scales (along with their predicted death/survival rate calculations) developed over the last 3 decades including several of them which has been revised accordingly. PMID:24872651

  3. Early diagnosis of neonatal sepsis using a hematological scoring system.

    PubMed

    Ghosh, S; Mittal, M; Jaganathan, G

    2001-09-01

    To assess the utility of the hematologic scoring system (HSS) of Rodwell et al for the early detection of neonatal sepsis. Analysis of the peripheral smear findings according to the HSS by a pathologist blinded to the infection status of the neonate. One hundred and three high risk neonates having predisposing perinatal factors or clinical suspicion of sepsis. Analysis of the hematologic profiles in the light of the HSS found that an abnormal immature to total neutrophil (1:T) ratio followed by an abnormal immature to mature neutrophil (1:M) ratio were the most sensitive indicators in identifying infants with sepsis. These two criteria along with thrombocytopenia (< 1,50,000/cm3) had a high negative predictive value over 94%. The study also found that the higher the score the greater the certainty of sepsis being present. The HSS is simple, quick, cost effective and readily available tool in the early-diagnosis of neonatal sepsis and could provide a guideline to decisions regarding antibiotic therapy.

  4. Prognostic utility of Hyams histological grading and Kadish-Morita staging systems for esthesioneuroblastoma outcomes.

    PubMed

    Bell, Diana; Saade, Rami; Roberts, Dianna; Ow, Thomas J; Kupferman, Michael; DeMonte, Franco; Hanna, Ehab Y

    2015-03-01

    Esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB) is derived from the specialized olfactory neuroepithelium. Hyams grading and Kadish staging have been used to prognosticate and to guide treatment decisions. In this study, we sought to validate the prognostic utility of these systems in a large ENB cohort. We retrospectively analyzed the records of patients with ENB who had been evaluated and treated at our institution. The association of grade and stage with prognostic outcome was assessed; the Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to generate 5-year OS and DFS curves. Out of 124 cases we identified, 121 were assessed for grading and 109 for staging. Review of the tissue samples revealed that 62 % of tumors were low grade (I/II) and 21 % were high grade (III/IV); 17 % of tumors were metastasis. The OS rate was 75 % at 5 years. The DFS was 60 % at 5 years. The OS was significantly worse for metastatic ENB (low-grade ENB vs metastatic ENB p = 0.01598); the DFS was significantly worse for high grade versus low grade ENB. Of the 109 cases that had been staged, 16 % were stage A, 33 % stage B, 43 % stage C, and 8 % stage D. In the A, B, and C groups, there were no significant differences between recurrence, distant metastasis, or 5-year survival rates. Statistical significance was not reached with the T, N, M and overall staging system. Age cutoff of 65 years reliably predicted OS. High grade of ENB was significantly associated with poor outcome, while advanced stage was not associated with poor outcome in this large cohort. Grading should certainly be considered in prognostication and treatment decisions for ENB.

  5. Assessing the repeatability and reproducibility of the Leg Score: a Dutch Claw Health Scoring System for dairy cattle.

    PubMed

    Holzhauer, M; Middelesch, H; Bartels, C J M; Frankena, K; Verhoeff, J; Noordhuizen-Stassen, E N; Noordhuizen, J P T M

    The optimal moment for trimming the claws of all dairy cows in a herd was investigated by assessing the external rotation of the hind claws of individual cows relative to the spinal column. This leg score consisted of three independent descriptors: 1 (good/normal), 2 (moderately deviant), and 3 (severely deviant). This study assessed the repeatability and the reproducibility of the leg score system, and the consistency of the advice given subsequently about trimming of the hind claws of all cows in the herd. Repeatability was assessed for 52 cows that were scored twice on the same day by 11 observers; the kappa value ranged from 0.17 to 0.66 (mean: 0.36). The probability of the same result for both assessments ranged from 0.49 to 0.80 (mean: 0.61). Claw trimming was advised if at least 20% of the cows had a leg score of 3. On the basis of the scores, 3 observers consistently advised trimming of the hind claws of all the cows in the herd, and 6 observers consistently advised against the need for trimming in the short term; 2 observers had an inconsistent advice. The reproducibility of the scoring system was assessed in two dairy herds (62 and 50 cows). Eight observers evaluated the leg score of the cows of both herds on the same day. The mean kappa value of the leg score for all pairs of different observers (A-B, A-C etcetera) was 0.24 [-0.08-0.49]. In conclusion, the leg score is not a reliable method for determining the optimal moment for claw trimming in dairy cattle. The reasons for the inconsistent observations require further investigation.

  6. Pathohistological classification systems in gastric cancer: Diagnostic relevance and prognostic value

    PubMed Central

    Berlth, Felix; Bollschweiler, Elfriede; Drebber, Uta; Hoelscher, Arnulf H; Moenig, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Several pathohistological classification systems exist for the diagnosis of gastric cancer. Many studies have investigated the correlation between the pathohistological characteristics in gastric cancer and patient characteristics, disease specific criteria and overall outcome. It is still controversial as to which classification system imparts the most reliable information, and therefore, the choice of system may vary in clinical routine. In addition to the most common classification systems, such as the Laurén and the World Health Organization (WHO) classifications, other authors have tried to characterize and classify gastric cancer based on the microscopic morphology and in reference to the clinical outcome of the patients. In more than 50 years of systematic classification of the pathohistological characteristics of gastric cancer, there is no sole classification system that is consistently used worldwide in diagnostics and research. However, several national guidelines for the treatment of gastric cancer refer to the Laurén or the WHO classifications regarding therapeutic decision-making, which underlines the importance of a reliable classification system for gastric cancer. The latest results from gastric cancer studies indicate that it might be useful to integrate DNA- and RNA-based features of gastric cancer into the classification systems to establish prognostic relevance. This article reviews the diagnostic relevance and the prognostic value of different pathohistological classification systems in gastric cancer. PMID:24914328

  7. A Linearized Prognostic Cloud Scheme in NASAs Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holdaway, Daniel; Errico, Ronald M.; Gelaro, Ronald; Kim, Jong G.; Mahajan, Rahul

    2015-01-01

    A linearized prognostic cloud scheme has been developed to accompany the linearized convection scheme recently implemented in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. The linearization, developed from the nonlinear cloud scheme, treats cloud variables prognostically so they are subject to linearized advection, diffusion, generation, and evaporation. Four linearized cloud variables are modeled, the ice and water phases of clouds generated by large-scale condensation and, separately, by detraining convection. For each species the scheme models their sources, sublimation, evaporation, and autoconversion. Large-scale, anvil and convective species of precipitation are modeled and evaporated. The cloud scheme exhibits linearity and realistic perturbation growth, except around the generation of clouds through large-scale condensation. Discontinuities and steep gradients are widely used here and severe problems occur in the calculation of cloud fraction. For data assimilation applications this poor behavior is controlled by replacing this part of the scheme with a perturbation model. For observation impacts, where efficiency is less of a concern, a filtering is developed that examines the Jacobian. The replacement scheme is only invoked if Jacobian elements or eigenvalues violate a series of tuned constants. The linearized prognostic cloud scheme is tested by comparing the linear and nonlinear perturbation trajectories for 6-, 12-, and 24-h forecast times. The tangent linear model performs well and perturbations of clouds are well captured for the lead times of interest.

  8. Development of an On-board Failure Diagnostics and Prognostics System for Solid Rocket Booster

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.; Luchinsky, Dmitry G.; Osipov, Vyatcheslav V.; Timucin, Dogan A.; Uckun, Serdar

    2009-01-01

    We develop a case breach model for the on-board fault diagnostics and prognostics system for subscale solid-rocket boosters (SRBs). The model development was motivated by recent ground firing tests, in which a deviation of measured time-traces from the predicted time-series was observed. A modified model takes into account the nozzle ablation, including the effect of roughness of the nozzle surface, the geometry of the fault, and erosion and burning of the walls of the hole in the metal case. The derived low-dimensional performance model (LDPM) of the fault can reproduce the observed time-series data very well. To verify the performance of the LDPM we build a FLUENT model of the case breach fault and demonstrate a good agreement between theoretical predictions based on the analytical solution of the model equations and the results of the FLUENT simulations. We then incorporate the derived LDPM into an inferential Bayesian framework and verify performance of the Bayesian algorithm for the diagnostics and prognostics of the case breach fault. It is shown that the obtained LDPM allows one to track parameters of the SRB during the flight in real time, to diagnose case breach fault, and to predict its values in the future. The application of the method to fault diagnostics and prognostics (FD&P) of other SRB faults modes is discussed.

  9. Does cell-of-origin or MYC, BCL2 or BCL6 translocation status provide prognostic information beyond the International Prognostic Index score in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with rituximab and chemotherapy? A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Schmidt-Hansen, Mia; Berendse, Sabine; Marafioti, Teresa; McNamara, Christopher

    2017-02-09

    We examined the additional prognostic value for survival of cell-of-origin, and MYC, BCL2 and BCL6 translocation status to that provided by the International Prognostic Index in newly-diagnosed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients treated firstline with rituximab-containing immunochemotherapy. We searched Medline, Premedline, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and ISI Proceedings (2000-2015) and assessed study risk-of-bias using a prognostic study checklist. Forty-four studies of moderate-high risk of bias with 100-712 participants were included. Immunohistochemistry-determined cell-of-origin, and BCL2 and BCL6 translocation status added no additional prognostic value. Half of the studies on gene expression profiling-determined cell-of-origin and MYC translocation status found that germinal center B-cell-like (GCB) and no translocation were associated with better overall survival (OS) whereas the remaining studies found no effect of these covariates. Further studies are required to ensure that biological information assessed using newer technologies can be reliably used for studies that incorporate newer agents targeting distinct molecular abnormalities identified in high-risk DLBCL patients.

  10. Ratio of C-Reactive Protein/Albumin is An Inflammatory Prognostic Score for Predicting Overall Survival of Patients with Small-cell Lung Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Ting; Zhan, Jianhua; Hong, Shaodong; Hu, Zhihuang; Fang, Wenfeng; Qin, Tao; Ma, Yuxiang; Yang, Yunpeng; He, Xiaobo; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Yan; Zhao, Hongyun; Zhang, Li

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have indicated that the C-reactive protein/ albumin (CRP/Alb) ratio is associated with clinical outcomes in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We examined the prognostic value of this ratio in patients with small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). In this retrospective study, a total of 367 eligible SCLC patients were analyzed and the correlation between the pretreatment CRP/Alb ratio and overall survival (OS) was investigated. The optimal cutoff level of CRP/Alb ratio was at 0.441. A low and high CRP/Alb ratio was assigned to 65.1% and 34.9% of patients, respectively. The median OS of patients with a high CRP/Alb ratio was worse than those in the low group (13.70 vs 18.90 months HR, 1.34; p = 0.005). Disease stage (p < 0.001), performance status (PS) (p < 0.001) and pretreatment LDH (p < 0.001) were also significant predictors of OS. Multivariate analyses showed that the CRP/Alb ratio is an independent prognostic factor (p = 0.025). This study demonstrated that the CRP/Alb ratio could independently predict OS in patients with SCLC, and had comparable prognostic value to other known prognostic markers. Therefore, the CRP/Alb ratio could have prognostic value and be a measurable biomarker in patients with SCLC. PMID:26084991

  11. Towards a contemporary, comprehensive scoring system for determining technical outcomes of hybrid percutaneous chronic total occlusion treatment: The RECHARGE score.

    PubMed

    Maeremans, Joren; Spratt, James C; Knaapen, Paul; Walsh, Simon; Agostoni, Pierfrancesco; Wilson, William; Avran, Alexandre; Faurie, Benjamin; Bressollette, Erwan; Kayaert, Peter; Bagnall, Alan J; Smith, Dave; McEntegart, Margaret B; Smith, William H T; Kelly, Paul; Irving, John; Smith, Elliot J; Strange, Julian W; Dens, Jo

    2017-05-04

    This study sought to create a contemporary scoring tool to predict technical outcomes of chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) from patients treated by hybrid operators with differing experience levels. Current scoring systems need regular updating to cope with the positive evolutions regarding materials, techniques, and outcomes, while at the same time being applicable for a broad range of operators. Clinical and angiographic characteristics from 880 CTO-PCIs included in the REgistry of CrossBoss and Hybrid procedures in FrAnce, the NetheRlands, BelGium and UnitEd Kingdom (RECHARGE) were analyzed by using a derivation and validation set (2:1 ratio). Variables significantly associated with technical failure in the multivariable analysis were incorporated in the score. Subsequently, the discriminatory capacity was assessed and the validation set was used to compare with the J-CTO score and PROGRESS scores. Technical success in the derivation and validation sets was 83% and 85%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified six parameters associated with technical failure: blunt stump (beta coefficient (b) = 1.014); calcification (b = 0.908); tortuosity ≥45° (b = 0.964); lesion length 20 mm (b = 0.556); diseased distal landing zone (b = 0.794), and previous bypass graft on CTO vessel (b = 0.833). Score variables remained significant after bootstrapping. The RECHARGE score showed better discriminatory capacity in both sets (area-under-the-curve (AUC) = 0.783 and 0.711), compared to the J-CTO (AUC = 0.676) and PROGRESS (AUC = 0.608) scores. The RECHARGE score is a novel, easy-to-use tool for assessing the risk for technical failure in hybrid CTO-PCI and has the potential to perform well for a broad community of operators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Scoring Systems for Outcome Prediction of Patients with Perforation Peritonitis

    PubMed Central

    Litake, Manjusha Madhusudhan

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Peritonitis continues to be one of the major infectious problems confronting a surgeon. Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), Physiological and Operative Severity Score for en Umeration of Mortality (POSSUM) and Morbidity and sepsis score of Stoner and Elebute have been devised for risk assessment and for prediction of postoperative outcome. Aim The aim of this study was to find the accuracy of these scores in predicting outcome in terms of mortality in patients undergoing exploratory laprotomy for perforation peritonitis. Materials and Methods The prospective study was carried out in 100 diagnosed cases of perforation at our centre in a single unit over a period of 21 months from December 2012 to August 2014. Study was conducted on all cases of peritonitis albeit primary, tertiary, iatrogenic and those with age less than 12 years were excluded from the study. All the relevant data were collected and three scores were computed from one set of data from the patient. The main outcome measure was survival of the patient. The Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) curves were obtained for the three scores. Area Under the Curves (AUC) was calculated. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated at a cut off point obtained from the ROC curves. Results POSSUM had an AUC of 0.99, sepsis score had an AUC of 0.98 and MPI had an AUC of 0.95. The cut off point score of 51 for POSSUM had an accuracy of 93.8 and positive predictive value of 70.5, the score of 29 for MPI had an accuracy of 82.8 and positive predictive value of 46 and the score of 22 for sepsis score had an accuracy of 95.9 and positive predictive value of 86.67. Conclusion POSSUM score was found to be superior in prediction of mortality as compared to sepsis score of Stoner and Elebute and MPI. POSSUM and MPI over predicted mortality in some cases. None of these scores are strictly preoperative. PMID:27134924

  13. Adaptive Multi-scale Prognostics and Health Management for Smart Manufacturing Systems

    PubMed Central

    Choo, Benjamin Y.; Adams, Stephen C.; Weiss, Brian A.; Marvel, Jeremy A.; Beling, Peter A.

    2017-01-01

    The Adaptive Multi-scale Prognostics and Health Management (AM-PHM) is a methodology designed to enable PHM in smart manufacturing systems. In application, PHM information is not yet fully utilized in higher-level decision-making in manufacturing systems. AM-PHM leverages and integrates lower-level PHM information such as from a machine or component with hierarchical relationships across the component, machine, work cell, and assembly line levels in a manufacturing system. The AM-PHM methodology enables the creation of actionable prognostic and diagnostic intelligence up and down the manufacturing process hierarchy. Decisions are then made with the knowledge of the current and projected health state of the system at decision points along the nodes of the hierarchical structure. To overcome the issue of exponential explosion of complexity associated with describing a large manufacturing system, the AM-PHM methodology takes a hierarchical Markov Decision Process (MDP) approach into describing the system and solving for an optimized policy. A description of the AM-PHM methodology is followed by a simulated industry-inspired example to demonstrate the effectiveness of AM-PHM. PMID:28736651

  14. Prognostic value of metastatic lymph node ratio as an additional tool to the TNM stage system in gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Wu, X-J; Miao, R-L; Li, Z-Y; Bu, Z-D; Zhang, L-H; Wu, A-W; Zong, X-L; Li, S-X; Shan, F; Ji, X; Ren, H; Ji, J-F

    2015-07-01

    Gastric cancer is one of most common malignancies in the world. Currently the prognostic prediction is entirely based on the TNM staging system. In this study, we evaluated whether metastatic lymph node ratio (rN) at the time of surgery would improve the prognostic prediction in conjunction with the TNM staging system. This retrospective study includes 745 patients, who had been referred for surgery due to gastric cancer between 1995 and 2007 and had at least 15 lymph nodes examined at the time of surgery without preoperative treatment. Clinicopathologic features and overall survival were analyzed using univariate and multivariate modes to identify the risk factors for overall survival. Median overall survival of all patients analyzed is 57.8 months and 5-year overall survival is 49.5%. Tumor site, macroscopic type, pTNM stage, and rN stage are identified as independent prognostic factors. Increased positive lymph node ratio correlates with shorter survival in all patients and in each T and N stage. In stage III gastric cancer patients, rN stage shows additional prognostic value on overall survival (p < 0.001). rN stage is a simple and promising prognostic factor of gastric cancer after surgery in addition to the TNM stage system especially in stage III patients. But the independent prognostic value of rN stage in stage I, II and IV gastric cancer is yet to be determined. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Body mass index, airflow obstruction and dyspnea and body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea scores, age and pack years-predictive properties of new multidimensional prognostic indices of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in primary care

    PubMed Central

    Ansari, Khalid; Keaney, Niall; Kay, Andrea; Price, Monica; Munby, Joan; Billett, Andrew; Haggerty, Sharon; Taylor, Ian K.; Al Otaibi, Hajed

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The assessment of the severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) should involve a multidimensional approach that is now clearly shown to be better than using spirometric impairment alone. The aim of this study is to validate and compare novel tools without an exercise test and to extend prognostic value to patients with less severe impairment of Forced expiratory volume 1 s. METHODS: A prospective, observational, primary care cohort study identified 458 eligible patients recruited from the primary care clinics in the northeast of England in 1999–2002. A new prognostic indicator – body mass index, airflow obstruction and dyspnea (BOD) together with the conventional prognostic indices age, dyspnea and airflow obstruction (ADO), global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease (GOLD) and new GOLD matrix were studied. We also sought to improve prognostication of BOD by adding age (A) and smoking history as pack years (S) to validate BODS (BOD with smoking history) and BODAS (BOD with smoking history and age) as prognostic tools and the predictive power of each was analyzed. RESULTS: The survival of the 458 patients was assessed after a median of 10 years when the mortality was found to be 33.6%. The novel indices BOD, BODS, and BODAS were significantly predictive for all-cause mortality in our cohort. Furthermore with ROC analysis the C statistics for BOD, BODS, and BODAS were 0.62, 0.66, and 0.72, respectively (P < 0.001 for each), whereas ADO and GOLD stages had a C statistic of 0.70 (P < 0.001) and 0.56 (P < 0.02), respectively. GOLD Matrix was not significant in this cohort. CONCLUSION: BOD, BODS, and BODAS scores are validated predictors of all-cause mortality in a primary care cohort with COPD. PMID:27803752

  16. Body mass index, airflow obstruction and dyspnea and body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea scores, age and pack years-predictive properties of new multidimensional prognostic indices of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in primary care.

    PubMed

    Ansari, Khalid; Keaney, Niall; Kay, Andrea; Price, Monica; Munby, Joan; Billett, Andrew; Haggerty, Sharon; Taylor, Ian K; Al Otaibi, Hajed

    2016-01-01

    The assessment of the severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) should involve a multidimensional approach that is now clearly shown to be better than using spirometric impairment alone. The aim of this study is to validate and compare novel tools without an exercise test and to extend prognostic value to patients with less severe impairment of Forced expiratory volume 1 s. A prospective, observational, primary care cohort study identified 458 eligible patients recruited from the primary care clinics in the northeast of England in 1999-2002. A new prognostic indicator - body mass index, airflow obstruction and dyspnea (BOD) together with the conventional prognostic indices age, dyspnea and airflow obstruction (ADO), global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease (GOLD) and new GOLD matrix were studied. We also sought to improve prognostication of BOD by adding age (A) and smoking history as pack years (S) to validate BODS (BOD with smoking history) and BODAS (BOD with smoking history and age) as prognostic tools and the predictive power of each was analyzed. The survival of the 458 patients was assessed after a median of 10 years when the mortality was found to be 33.6%. The novel indices BOD, BODS, and BODAS were significantly predictive for all-cause mortality in our cohort. Furthermore with ROC analysis the C statistics for BOD, BODS, and BODAS were 0.62, 0.66, and 0.72, respectively (P < 0.001 for each), whereas ADO and GOLD stages had a C statistic of 0.70 (P < 0.001) and 0.56 (P < 0.02), respectively. GOLD Matrix was not significant in this cohort. BOD, BODS, and BODAS scores are validated predictors of all-cause mortality in a primary care cohort with COPD.

  17. Prognostic value of circulating microRNA-21 in digestive system cancers: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Ye, Ting-Ting; Yang, Yin-Long; Liu, Xin-Ying; Ji, Qian-Qing; Pan, Yi-Fei; Xiang, You-Qun

    2014-01-01

    Circulating microRNAs show aberrant expression in patients with cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of circulating microRNA-21 (miR-21) in digestive system cancers. All the eligible studies were searched by Medline and EMBASE. The hazard ratios (HRs) for overall survival (OS), which compared the expression levels of circulating miR-21 in patients with digestive cancer was extracted and estimated. Pooled HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Then a meta-analysis was performed to clarify the prognostic value of the miR-21. A total of seven studies involving 907 subjects were included. The results suggested that higher circulating miR-21 could predict worse OS outcome with the pooled HR of 2.19 (95% CI 1.01-4.75, P = 0.05) in digestive system cancers. Subgroup analysis by ethnicity indicated circulating miR-21 was associated with OS in patients with digestive cancer among Asians with the pooled HR of 2.90 (95% CI 1.30-6.45, P = 0.009). However, subgroup analysis by digestive system site revealed that there is no associated with OS in patients with colorectal cancer with the pooled HR of 1.34 (95% CI 0.45-4.00, P = 0.60). The present findings suggest that circulating miR-21 is associated with poor survival in patients with digestive cancer and could be a prognostic biomarker for those patients.

  18. Prognostic correlation of cell cycle progression score and Ki-67 as a predictor of aggressiveness, biochemical failure, and mortality in men with high-risk prostate cancer treated with external beam radiation therapy.

    PubMed

    López, Iván Henríquez; Parada, David; Gallardo, Pablo; Gascón, Marina; Besora, Arnau; Peña, Karla; Riu, Francesc; Arquez Pianetta, Miquel; Abuchaibe, Oscar; Torres Royò, Laura; Arenas, Meritxell

    2017-01-01

    Ki-67 is a proliferation marker in prostate cancer. A prognostic RNA signature was developed to characterize prostate cancer aggressiveness. The aim was to evaluate prognostic correlation of CCP and Ki-67 with biochemical failure (BF), and survival in high-risk prostate cancer patients (pts) treated with radiation therapy (RT). CCP score and Ki-67 were derived retrospectively from pre-treatment paraffin-embedded prostate cancer tissue of 33 men diagnosed from 2002 to 2006. CCP score was calculated as an average expression of 31 CCP genes. Ki-67 was determined by IHC. Single pathologist evaluated all tissues. Factors associated to failure and survival were analyzed. Median CCP score was 0.9 (-0-1 - 2.6). CCP 0: 1 pt; CCP 1: 19 pts; CCP 2: 13 pts. Median Ki-67 was 8.9. Ki-67 cutpoint was 15.08%. BF and DSM were observed in 21% and 9%. Ki-67 ≥ 15% predicted BF (p = 0.043). With a median follow-up of 8.4 years, 10-year BF, OS, DM and DSM for CCP 1 vs. CCP 2 was 76-71% (p = 0.83), 83-73% (p = 0.86), 89-85% (p = 0.84), and 94-78% (p = 0.66). On univariate, high Ki-67 was correlated with BF (p = 0.013), OS (p = 0.023), DM (p = 0.007), and DSM (p = 0.01). On Cox MVA, high Ki-67 had a BF trend (p = 0.063). High CCP score was not correlated with DSM. High Ki-67 significantly predicted outcome and provided prognostic information. CCP score may improve accuracy stratification. We did not provide prognostic correlation of CCP and DSM. It should be validated in a larger cohort of pts.

  19. Prognostic value of long noncoding RNA MALAT1 in digestive system malignancies.

    PubMed

    Zhai, Hui; Li, Xiao-Mei; Maimaiti, Ailifeire; Chen, Qing-Jie; Liao, Wu; Lai, Hong-Mei; Liu, Fen; Yang, Yi-Ning

    2015-01-01

    MALAT1, a newly discovered long noncoding RNA (lncRNA), has been reported to be highly expressed in many types of cancers. This meta-analysis summarizes its potential prognostic value in digestive system malignancies. A quantitative meta-analysis was performed through a systematic search in PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) for eligible papers on the prognostic impact of MALAT1 in digestive system malignancies from inception to Apr. 25, 2015. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated to summarize the effect. Five studies were included in the study, with a total of 527 patients. A significant association was observed between MALAT1 abundance and poor overall survival (OS) of patients with digestive system malignancies, with pooled hazard ratio (HR) of 7.68 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.32-13.66, P<0.001). Meta sensitivity analysis suggested the reliability of our findings. No publication bias was observed. MALAT1 abundance may serve as a novel predictive factor for poor prognosis in patients with digestive system malignancies.

  20. Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

    PubMed

    Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

    2015-03-01

    Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

  1. Reliable scar scoring system to assess photographs of burn patients

    PubMed Central

    Mecott, Gabriel A.; Finnerty, Celeste C.; Herndon, David N.; Al-Mousawi, Ahmed M.; Branski, Ludwik K.; Hegde, Sachin; Kraft, Robert; Williams, Felicia N.; Maldonado, Susana A.; Rivero, Haidy G.; Rodriguez-Escobar, Noe; Jeschke, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    Background Several scar-scoring scales exist to clinically monitor burn scar development and maturation. Although scoring scars through direct clinical examination is ideal, scars must sometimes be scored from photographs. No scar scale currently exists for the latter purpose. Materials and methods We modified a previously described scar scale (Yeong et al., J Burn Care Rehabil 1997) and tested the reliability of this new scale in assessing burn scars from photographs. The new scale consisted of three parameters: scar height, surface appearance, and color mismatch. Each parameter was assigned a score of 1 (best) to 4 (worst), generating a total score of 3 to 12. Five physicians with burns training scored 120 representative photographs using the original and modified scales. Reliability was analyzed using coefficient of agreement, Cronbach’s alpha, intraclass correlation coefficient, variance, and coefficient of variance. Analysis of variance was performed using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Color mismatch and scar height scores were validated by analyzing actual height and color differences. Results The intraclass correlation coefficient, the coefficient of agreement, and Cronbach’s alpha were higher for the modified scale than the original scale. The original scale produced more variance than the modified scale. Sub-analysis demonstrated that, for all categories, the modified scale had greater correlation and reliability than the original scale. The correlation between color mismatch scores and actual color differences was 0.84 and between scar height scores and actual height was 0.81. Conclusions The modified scar scale is a simple, reliable, and useful scale for evaluating photographs of burn patients. PMID:26092214

  2. Reliable scar scoring system to assess photographs of burn patients.

    PubMed

    Mecott, Gabriel A; Finnerty, Celeste C; Herndon, David N; Al-Mousawi, Ahmed M; Branski, Ludwik K; Hegde, Sachin; Kraft, Robert; Williams, Felicia N; Maldonado, Susana A; Rivero, Haidy G; Rodriguez-Escobar, Noe; Jeschke, Marc G

    2015-12-01

    Several scar-scoring scales exist to clinically monitor burn scar development and maturation. Although scoring scars through direct clinical examination is ideal, scars must sometimes be scored from photographs. No scar scale currently exists for the latter purpose. We modified a previously described scar scale (Yeong et al., J Burn Care Rehabil 1997) and tested the reliability of this new scale in assessing burn scars from photographs. The new scale consisted of three parameters as follows: scar height, surface appearance, and color mismatch. Each parameter was assigned a score of 1 (best) to 4 (worst), generating a total score of 3-12. Five physicians with burns training scored 120 representative photographs using the original and modified scales. Reliability was analyzed using coefficient of agreement, Cronbach alpha, intraclass correlation coefficient, variance, and coefficient of variance. Analysis of variance was performed using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Color mismatch and scar height scores were validated by analyzing actual height and color differences. The intraclass correlation coefficient, the coefficient of agreement, and Cronbach alpha were higher for the modified scale than those of the original scale. The original scale produced more variance than that in the modified scale. Subanalysis demonstrated that, for all categories, the modified scale had greater correlation and reliability than the original scale. The correlation between color mismatch scores and actual color differences was 0.84 and between scar height scores and actual height was 0.81. The modified scar scale is a simple, reliable, and useful scale for evaluating photographs of burn patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Prognostic Significance of High Ki-67 Index and Histogenetic Subclassification in Primary Central Nervous System Lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Cho, Uiju; Oh, Woo Jin; Hong, Yong-Kil; Lee, Youn Soo

    2016-08-03

    In diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), the germinal center B-cell (GCB) subtype is associated with a better prognosis compared with the nongerminal center B-cell-like (non-GCB) subtype. However, validity of this immunohistochemical subgrouping in primary DLBCL of the central nervous system is unclear. A total 45 cases of primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNS)/DLBCL were selected, and immunohistochemistries for CD10, Bcl-6, MUM1, and Ki-67 were performed. Each of the cases was subclassified as either GCB or non-GCB based on its immunoprofile. Among clinical and immunologic markers, patients under 70 years of age and who had methotrexate chemotherapy showed a significantly better overall survival (OS). High Ki-67 (ie, a Ki-67 index ≥90%) was an independent prognostic factor for a poor OS in the whole cohort and in the patients with non-GCB subtype tumors (P=0.017, HR=4.267, 95% CI, 1.3-14.0; P=0.031, HR=3.752, 95% CI, 1.3-12.5). Tumors were dominantly non-GCB subtype (41/45, 91.1%); only 4 (8.9%) were GCB subtype. The 2-year OS rates for these groups were 73% and 100%. There was, however, no statistically significant difference between these groups for OS and progression-free survival. The subclassification of PCNS/DLBCL into GCB and non-GCB subtypes did not seem to have a prognostic value. In non-GCB subtype PCNSL patients, high Ki-67 index was an adverse independent prognostic marker that could be used to stratify patients for more suitable management.

  4. Prognostic markers in acute pancreatitis.

    PubMed

    Gomatos, Ilias P; Xiaodong, Xu; Ghaneh, Paula; Halloran, Christopher; Raraty, Michael; Lane, Brian; Sutton, Robert; Neoptolemos, John P

    2014-04-01

    Acute pancreatitis has a mortality rate of 5-10%. Early deaths are mainly due to multiorgan failure and late deaths are due to septic complications from pancreatic necrosis. The recently described 2012 Revised Atlanta Classification and the Determinant Classification both provide a more accurate description of edematous and necrotizing pancreatitis and local complications. The 2012 Revised Atlanta Classification uses the modified Marshall scoring system for assessing organ dysfunction. The Determinant Classification uses the sepsis-related organ failure assessment scoring system for organ dysfunction and, unlike the 2012 Revised Atlanta Classification, includes infected necrosis as a criterion of severity. These scoring systems are used to assess systemic complications requiring intensive therapy unit support and intra-abdominal complications requiring minimally invasive interventions. Numerous prognostic systems and markers have been evaluated but only the Glasgow system and serum CRP levels provide pragmatic prognostic accuracy early on. Novel concepts using genetic, transcriptomic and proteomic profiling and also functional imaging for the identification of specific disease patterns are now required.

  5. Prognostic Value of MACC1 in Digestive System Neoplasms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Zhenzhen; Zhou, Rui; Su, Yuqi; Sun, Li; Liao, Yulin; Liao, Wangjun

    2015-01-01

    Metastasis associated in colon cancer 1 (MACC1), a newly identified oncogene, has been associated with poor survival of cancer patients by multiple studies. However, the prognostic value of MACC1 in digestive system neoplasms needs systematic evidence to verify. Therefore, we aimed to provide further evidence on this topic by systematic review and meta-analysis. Literature search was conducted in multiple databases and eligible studies analyzing survival data and MACC1 expression were included for meta-analysis. Hazard ratio (HR) for clinical outcome was chosen as an effect measure of interest. According to our inclusion criteria, 18 studies with a total of 2,948 patients were identified. Pooled HRs indicated that high MACC1 expression significantly correlates with poorer OS in patients with digestive system neoplasms (HR = 1.94; 95% CI: 1.49–2.53) as well as poorer relapse-free survival (HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.33–2.82). The results of subgroup studies categorized by methodology, anatomic structure, and cancer subtype for pooled OS were all consistent with the overall pooled HR for OS as well. No publication bias was detected according to test of funnel plot asymmetry and Egger's test. In conclusion, high MACC1 expression may serve as a prognostic biomarker to guide individualized management in clinical practice for digestive system neoplasms. PMID:26090393

  6. Prognostic Value of MACC1 in Digestive System Neoplasms: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Wu, Zhenzhen; Zhou, Rui; Su, Yuqi; Sun, Li; Liao, Yulin; Liao, Wangjun

    2015-01-01

    Metastasis associated in colon cancer 1 (MACC1), a newly identified oncogene, has been associated with poor survival of cancer patients by multiple studies. However, the prognostic value of MACC1 in digestive system neoplasms needs systematic evidence to verify. Therefore, we aimed to provide further evidence on this topic by systematic review and meta-analysis. Literature search was conducted in multiple databases and eligible studies analyzing survival data and MACC1 expression were included for meta-analysis. Hazard ratio (HR) for clinical outcome was chosen as an effect measure of interest. According to our inclusion criteria, 18 studies with a total of 2,948 patients were identified. Pooled HRs indicated that high MACC1 expression significantly correlates with poorer OS in patients with digestive system neoplasms (HR = 1.94; 95% CI: 1.49-2.53) as well as poorer relapse-free survival (HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.33-2.82). The results of subgroup studies categorized by methodology, anatomic structure, and cancer subtype for pooled OS were all consistent with the overall pooled HR for OS as well. No publication bias was detected according to test of funnel plot asymmetry and Egger's test. In conclusion, high MACC1 expression may serve as a prognostic biomarker to guide individualized management in clinical practice for digestive system neoplasms.

  7. Prognostics for Microgrid Components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saxena, Abhinav

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

  8. Antithrombotic drugs and non-variceal bleeding outcomes and risk scoring systems: comparison of Glasgow Blatchford, Rockall and Charlson scores.

    PubMed

    Taha, Ali S; McCloskey, Caroline; Craigen, Theresa; Angerson, Wilson J

    2016-10-01

    Antithrombotic drugs (ATDs) cause non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB). Risk scoring systems have not been validated in ATD users. We compared Blatchford, Rockall and Charlson scores in predicting outcomes of NVUGIB in ATD users and controls. A total of 2071 patients with NVUGIB were grouped into ATD users (n=851) and controls (n=1220) in a single-centre retrospective analysis. Outcomes included duration of hospital admission, the need for blood transfusion, rebleeding requiring surgery and 30-day mortality. Duration of admission correlated with all scores in controls, but correlations were significantly weaker in ATD users. Rank correlation coefficients in control versus ATD: 0.45 vs 0.20 for Blatchford; 0.48 vs 0.32 for Rockall and 0.42 vs 0.26 for Charlson (all p<0.001). The need for transfusion was best predicted by Blatchford (p<0.001 vs Rockall and Charlson in both ATD users and controls), but all scores performed less well in ATD users. Area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (AUC) in control versus ATD: 0.90 vs 0.85 for Blatchford; 0.77 vs 0.61 for Rockall and 0.69 vs 0.56 for Charlson (all p<0.005). In predicting surgery, Rockall performed best; while mortality was best predicted by Charlson with lower AUCs in ATD patients than controls (p<0.05). Stratification showed the scores' performance to be age-dependent. Blatchford score was the strongest predictor of transfusion, Rockall's had the strongest correlation with duration of admission and with rebleeding requiring surgery and Charlson was best in predicting 30-day mortality. Modifications of these systems should be explored to improve their efficiency in ATD users.

  9. The UK-PBC risk scores: Derivation and validation of a scoring system for long-term prediction of end-stage liver disease in primary biliary cholangitis.

    PubMed

    Carbone, Marco; Sharp, Stephen J; Flack, Steve; Paximadas, Dimitrios; Spiess, Kelly; Adgey, Carolyn; Griffiths, Laura; Lim, Reyna; Trembling, Paul; Williamson, Kate; Wareham, Nick J; Aldersley, Mark; Bathgate, Andrew; Burroughs, Andrew K; Heneghan, Michael A; Neuberger, James M; Thorburn, Douglas; Hirschfield, Gideon M; Cordell, Heather J; Alexander, Graeme J; Jones, David E J; Sandford, Richard N; Mells, George F

    2016-03-01

    The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90). The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  10. [Predictive value of combining of anatomy scoring system and physiological scoring system for the diagnosis of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in patients with severe trauma].

    PubMed

    Ma, Xiaoyuan; Xiao, Ya; Chen, Tao; Jiang, Dongpo; Zhou, Jian; Yan, Jun; Liang, Huaping

    2016-02-01

    To evaluate the predictive value of a combination of anatomy scoring system and physiological scoring system for the diagnosis of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) in patients with severe trauma. The clinical data of 539 patients with severe trauma hospitalized in ICUs of the First Affiliated Hospital of Chengdu Medical College, Daping Hospital of the Third Military Medical University, and the Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical College from January 2010 to December 2014, conforming to the study criteria, were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into MODS group (n=361) and non-MODS group (n=178) according to the diagnostic criteria of MODS. The data of Injury Severity Score (ISS), New Injury Severity Score (NISS), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, ISS+ APACHE II score, and NISS+ APACHE II score of patients on the first day of ICU admission were calculated and compared between the two groups. Data were processed with t test, chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the various scoring systems in 539 patients with severe trauma were plotted, and DeLong-DeLong non parametric test was used to evaluate the predictive ability for MODS of the various scoring systems. The scores of ISS, NISS, APACHE II, ISS+ APACHE II, and NISS+ APACHE II of patients in MODS group were respectively (26±8), (36±12), (21±7), (47±10), and (56±14) points, and they were significantly higher than those of patients in non-MODS group [respectively (24±6), (28±7), (16±5), (39±8), and (44±9) points, with t values from 4.970 to 12.120, P values below 0.01]. The total areas under ROC curves (95% confidence interval) of ISS, NISS, APACHE II score, ISS+ APACHE II score, and NISS+ APACHE II score in MODS prediction of patients with severe trauma were respectively 0.611 (0.569-0.653), 0.693 (0.652-0.731), 0.719 (0.679-0.756), 0.727 (0.687-0.764), and 0.764 (0.726-0.799). The total areas under ROC curves of

  11. Prognostic Health Monitoring System: Component Selection Based on Risk Criteria and Economic Benefit Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Binh T. Pham; Vivek Agarwal; Nancy J Lybeck; Magdy S Tawfik

    2012-05-01

    Prognostic health monitoring (PHM) is a proactive approach to monitor the ability of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) to withstand structural, thermal, and chemical loadings over the SSCs planned service lifespans. The current efforts to extend the operational license lifetime of the aging fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants from 40 to 60 years and beyond can benefit from a systematic application of PHM technology. Implementing a PHM system would strengthen the safety of nuclear power plants, reduce plant outage time, and reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, a nuclear power plant has thousands of SSCs, so implementing a PHM system that covers all SSCs requires careful planning and prioritization. This paper therefore focuses on a component selection that is based on the analysis of a component's failure probability, risk, and cost. Ultimately, the decision on component selection depend on the overall economical benefits arising from safety and operational considerations associated with implementing the PHM system.

  12. Computer-Assisted Automated Scoring of Polysomnograms Using the Somnolyzer System.

    PubMed

    Punjabi, Naresh M; Shifa, Naima; Dorffner, Georg; Patil, Susheel; Pien, Grace; Aurora, Rashmi N

    2015-10-01

    Manual scoring of polysomnograms is a time-consuming and tedious process. To expedite the scoring of polysomnograms, several computerized algorithms for automated scoring have been developed. The overarching goal of this study was to determine the validity of the Somnolyzer system, an automated system for scoring polysomnograms. The analysis sample comprised of 97 sleep studies. Each polysomnogram was manually scored by certified technologists from four sleep laboratories and concurrently subjected to automated scoring by the Somnolyzer system. Agreement between manual and automated scoring was examined. Sleep staging and scoring of disordered breathing events was conducted using the 2007 American Academy of Sleep Medicine criteria. Clinical sleep laboratories. A high degree of agreement was noted between manual and automated scoring of the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). The average correlation between the manually scored AHI across the four clinical sites was 0.92 (95% confidence interval: 0.90-0.93). Similarly, the average correlation between the manual and Somnolyzer-scored AHI values was 0.93 (95% confidence interval: 0.91-0.96). Thus, interscorer correlation between the manually scored results was no different than that derived from manual and automated scoring. Substantial concordance in the arousal index, total sleep time, and sleep efficiency between manual and automated scoring was also observed. In contrast, differences were noted between manually and automated scored percentages of sleep stages N1, N2, and N3. Automated analysis of polysomnograms using the Somnolyzer system provides results that are comparable to manual scoring for commonly used metrics in sleep medicine. Although differences exis