Effects of after-school programs with at-risk youth on attendance and externalizing behaviors: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kremer, Kristen P; Maynard, Brandy R; Polanin, Joshua R; Vaughn, Michael G; Sarteschi, Christine M

2015-03-01

The popularity, demand, and increased federal and private funding for after-school programs have resulted in a marked increase in after-school programs over the past two decades. After-school programs are used to prevent adverse outcomes, decrease risks, or improve functioning with at-risk youth in several areas, including academic achievement, crime and behavioral problems, socio-emotional functioning, and school engagement and attendance; however, the evidence of effects of after-school programs remains equivocal. This systematic review and meta-analysis, following Campbell Collaboration guidelines, examined the effects of after-school programs on externalizing behaviors and school attendance with at-risk students. A systematic search for published and unpublished literature resulted in the inclusion of 24 studies. A total of 64 effect sizes (16 for attendance outcomes; 49 for externalizing behavior outcomes) extracted from 31 reports were included in the meta-analysis using robust variance estimation to handle dependencies among effect sizes. Mean effects were small and non-significant for attendance and externalizing behaviors. A moderate to large amount of heterogeneity was present; however, no moderator variable tested explained the variance between studies. Significant methodological shortcomings were identified across the corpus of studies included in this review. Implications for practice, policy and research are discussed.

Effects of After-School Programs with At-Risk Youth on Attendance and Externalizing Behaviors: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Maynard, Brandy R.; Polanin, Joshua R.; Vaughn, Michael G.; Sarteschi, Christine M.

2015-01-01

The popularity, demand, and increased federal and private funding for after-school programs have resulted in a marked increase in after-school programs over the past two decades. After-school programs are used to prevent adverse outcomes, decrease risks, or improve functioning with at-risk youth in several areas, including academic achievement, crime and behavioral problems, socio-emotional functioning, and school engagement and attendance; however, the evidence of effects of after-school programs remains equivocal. This systematic review and meta-analysis, following Campbell Collaboration guidelines, examined the effects of after-school programs on externalizing behaviors and school attendance with at-risk students. A systematic search for published and unpublished literature resulted in the inclusion of 24 studies. A total of 64 effect sizes (16 for attendance outcomes; 49 for externalizing behavior outcomes) extracted from 31 reports were included in the meta-analysis using robust variance estimation to handle dependencies among effect sizes. Mean effects were small and non-significant for attendance and externalizing behaviors. A moderate to large amount of heterogeneity was present; however, no moderator variable tested explained the variance between studies. Significant methodological shortcomings were identified across the corpus of studies included in this review. Implications for practice, policy and research are discussed. PMID:25416228

Risk analysis approach. [of carbon fiber release

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huston, R. J.

1979-01-01

The assessment of the carbon fiber hazard is outlined. Program objectives, requirements of the risk analysis, and elements associated with the physical phenomena of the accidental release are described.

Integrated operations payloads/fleet analysis study extension report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1971-01-01

An analysis of the factors affecting the cost effectiveness of space shuttle operations is presented. The subjects discussed are: (1)payload data bank, (2) program risk analysis, (3)navigation satellite program, and (4) reusable launch systems.

Adult Prostitution Recidivism: Risk Factors and Impact of a Diversion Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roe-Sepowitz, Dominique E.; Hickle, Kristine E.; Loubert, Martha Perez; Egan, Tom

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the risk factors and the impact of a prostitution diversion program on prostitution recidivism. Risk factors and recidivism were explored using chi-square, t tests, and survival analysis. Participants were 448 individuals who were arrested for prostitution and attended a prostitution-focused diversion…

Flood Catastrophe Model for Designing Optimal Flood Insurance Program: Estimating Location-Specific Premiums in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Ermolieva, T; Filatova, T; Ermoliev, Y; Obersteiner, M; de Bruijn, K M; Jeuken, A

2017-01-01

As flood risks grow worldwide, a well-designed insurance program engaging various stakeholders becomes a vital instrument in flood risk management. The main challenge concerns the applicability of standard approaches for calculating insurance premiums of rare catastrophic losses. This article focuses on the design of a flood-loss-sharing program involving private insurance based on location-specific exposures. The analysis is guided by a developed integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model consisting of a GIS-based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location-specific risk exposures. To achieve the stability and robustness of the program towards floods with various recurrences, the ICRM uses stochastic optimization procedure, which relies on quantile-related risk functions of a systemic insolvency involving overpayments and underpayments of the stakeholders. Two alternative ways of calculating insurance premiums are compared: the robust derived with the ICRM and the traditional average annual loss approach. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of a Rotterdam area outside the main flood protection system in the Netherlands. Our numerical experiments demonstrate essential advantages of the robust premiums, namely, that they: (1) guarantee the program's solvency under all relevant flood scenarios rather than one average event; (2) establish a tradeoff between the security of the program and the welfare of locations; and (3) decrease the need for other risk transfer and risk reduction measures. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

A proficiency testing program of hemoglobin analysis in prevention and control of severe hemoglobinopathies in Thailand.

PubMed

Karnpean, Rossarin; Fucharoen, Goonnapa; Pansuwan, Anupong; Changtrakul, Duangrudee; Fucharoen, Supan

2013-06-01

No external quality assessment program for hemoglobin (Hb) analysis in the prevention and control of thalassemia has been established in Thailand. To improve the first line provisional diagnostics, the first proficiency testing (PT) program has been established. External Hb controls prepared at our center were sent to Hb analysis laboratories all over the country. Three cycles per year were performed in 2010 and 2011. In each cycle, two control samples with corresponding hematological parameters, designated as husband and his pregnant wife were supplied for Hb analysis. Each member analyzed the control samples in their routine practices. The results of Hb analysis, laboratory interpretation and risk assessment of the expected fetus for severe thalassemia diseases targeted for prevention and control were entered into the report form and sent back to our center. Participants reports were analyzed and classified into four different quality groups; Excellent (when all the three parameters are correct), Good (correct Hb analysis and interpretation but incorrect risk assessment), Fair (correct Hb analysis but incorrect interpretation and risk assessment) and Needs improvement (incorrect Hb analysis). It was found that most participants could report correct Hb types and quantifications but some misinterpretations and risk assessments were noted. These were clearly seen when control samples with more complexity were supplied. These results indicate a further improvement is required in the laboratory interpretation and knowledge of the laboratory diagnosis of thalassemia. The established system should facilitate the prevention and control program of thalassemia in the region.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

78 FR 8128 - Request for Nominations of Experts to the EPA Office of Research and Development's Board of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-05

... Program; Homeland Security Research Program; Human Health Risk Assessment Research Program; Safe and... --atmospheric physics Biology --biogeochemistry --cell biology --endocrinology (endocrine disruptors... analysis --uncertainty analysis Nanotechnology Public Health --children's health --community health...

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

2016-01-01

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Building electronic forms for elderly program: integrated care model for high risk elders in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Yiu, Rex; Fung, Vicky; Szeto, Karen; Hung, Veronica; Siu, Ricky; Lam, Johnny; Lai, Daniel; Maw, Christina; Cheung, Adah; Shea, Raman; Choy, Anna

2013-01-01

In Hong Kong, elderly patients discharged from hospital are at high risk of unplanned readmission. The Integrated Care Model (ICM) program is introduced to provide continuous and coordinated care for high risk elders from hospital to community to prevent unplanned readmission. A multidisciplinary working group was set up to address the requirements on developing the electronic forms for ICM program. Six (6) forms were developed. These forms can support ICM service delivery for the high risk elders, clinical documentation, statistical analysis and information sharing.

Evaluation of rail test frequencies using risk analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-03

Several industries now use risk analysis to develop : inspection programs to ensure acceptable mechanical integrity : and reliability. These industries include nuclear and electric : power generation, oil refining, gas processing, onshore and : offsh...

Systems Analysis of NASA Aviation Safety Program: Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Sharon M.; Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Evans, Joni K.; Barr, Lawrence; Leone, Karen

2013-01-01

A three-month study (February to April 2010) of the NASA Aviation Safety (AvSafe) program was conducted. This study comprised three components: (1) a statistical analysis of currently available civilian subsonic aircraft data from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) system to identify any significant or overlooked aviation safety issues; (2) a high-level qualitative identification of future safety risks, with an assessment of the potential impact of the NASA AvSafe research on the National Airspace System (NAS) based on these risks; and (3) a detailed, top-down analysis of the NASA AvSafe program using an established and peer-reviewed systems analysis methodology. The statistical analysis identified the top aviation "tall poles" based on NTSB accident and FAA incident data from 1997 to 2006. A separate examination of medical helicopter accidents in the United States was also conducted. Multiple external sources were used to develop a compilation of ten "tall poles" in future safety issues/risks. The top-down analysis of the AvSafe was conducted by using a modification of the Gibson methodology. Of the 17 challenging safety issues that were identified, 11 were directly addressed by the AvSafe program research portfolio.

General RMP Guidance - Chapter 7: Prevention Program (Program 3)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Many Program 3 processes are already addressed by the OSHA Process Safety Management Program, which covers on-site consequences. So for compliance with the risk management program, process hazard analysis teams must consider potential offsite consequences.

The effectiveness of risk management program on pediatric nurses' medication error.

PubMed

Dehghan-Nayeri, Nahid; Bayat, Fariba; Salehi, Tahmineh; Faghihzadeh, Soghrat

2013-09-01

Medication therapy is one of the most complex and high-risk clinical processes that nurses deal with. Medication error is the most common type of error that brings about damage and death to patients, especially pediatric ones. However, these errors are preventable. Identifying and preventing undesirable events leading to medication errors are the main risk management activities. The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of a risk management program on the pediatric nurses' medication error rate. This study is a quasi-experimental one with a comparison group. In this study, 200 nurses were recruited from two main pediatric hospitals in Tehran. In the experimental hospital, we applied the risk management program for a period of 6 months. Nurses of the control hospital did the hospital routine schedule. A pre- and post-test was performed to measure the frequency of the medication error events. SPSS software, t-test, and regression analysis were used for data analysis. After the intervention, the medication error rate of nurses at the experimental hospital was significantly lower (P < 0.001) and the error-reporting rate was higher (P < 0.007) compared to before the intervention and also in comparison to the nurses of the control hospital. Based on the results of this study and taking into account the high-risk nature of the medical environment, applying the quality-control programs such as risk management can effectively prevent the occurrence of the hospital undesirable events. Nursing mangers can reduce the medication error rate by applying risk management programs. However, this program cannot succeed without nurses' cooperation.

HIV Risk Behavior among Amphetamine Injectors at U.S. Syringe Exchange Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Braine, Naomi; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Goldblatt, Cullen; Zadoretzky, Cathy; Turner, Charles

2005-01-01

The goal of this study was to compare HIV risk behaviors of amphetamine and non-amphetamine injectors at syringe exchange programs (SEP) in the United States and to identify factors associated with injection risk. This analysis is based on data from a random cross-section of participants at 13 SEPs in different parts of the country. All interviews…

Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moynihan, Gary P.; Fonseca, Daniel J.; Ray, Paul S.

2010-01-01

A conceptual design has been announced of an expert-system computer program, and the development of a prototype of the program, intended for use as a project-management tool. The program integrates schedule and risk data for the purpose of determining the schedule applications of safety risks and, somewhat conversely, the effects of changes in schedules on changes on safety. It is noted that the design has been delivered to a NASA client and that it is planned to disclose the design in a conference presentation.

Evaluation of a Sexual Assault Risk Reduction and Self-Defense Program: A Prospective Analysis of a Revised Protocol

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orchowski, Lindsay M.; Gidycz, Christine A.; Raffle, Holly

2008-01-01

The current study extends the development and evaluation of an existing and previously evaluated sexual assault risk reduction program with a self-defense component for college women (N = 300). The program protocol was revised to address psychological barriers to responding assertively to risky dating situations, and a placebo-control group was…

A Comparative Analysis of Selected Federal Programs Serving Young Children. Steps toward Making These Programs Work in Your State.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Barbara J.

Intended to help state planners understand and coordinate their program efforts, the guide provides an analysis of major federally funded programs for handicapped and at-risk children from birth to age 6. The following programs and their legislative authority are considered: Medicaid (Title XIX of the Social Security Act); The Early and Periodic…

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stamatelatos,Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Apostolakis, George; Everline, Chester; Guarro, Sergio; Mathias, Donovan; Mosleh, Ali; Paulos, Todd; Riha, David; Smith, Curtis;

Application of Statistics in Engineering Technology Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhan, Wei; Fink, Rainer; Fang, Alex

2010-01-01

Statistics is a critical tool for robustness analysis, measurement system error analysis, test data analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, and many other fields in the engineering world. Traditionally, however, statistics is not extensively used in undergraduate engineering technology (ET) programs, resulting in a major disconnect from industry…

Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Chiradip; Mozumder, Pallab

2014-06-01

Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Understanding the real risks of changing employee benefit plans.

PubMed

Kane, Jon; St Amour, Jeffrey

2005-01-01

In an environment of constant change, corporations are looking to alter employee benefits programs to make them more responsive to employee and business needs. A complete risk assessment process is the key to preparing for changes to employee benefits programs by providing employers with an analysis of cost savings against the potential negative ramifications of change. This article outlines the steps involved in a complete review of risk assessment. It then discusses how employers can develop successful change management communication strategies if, after conducting a risk assessment, employers decide to move forward with alterations to their employee benefits programs.

Deficient Contractor Business Systems: Applying the Value at Risk (VAR) Model to Earned Value Management Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

measuring numerical risk to the government ( Galway , 2004). However, quantitative risk analysis is rarely utilized in DoD acquisition programs because the...quantitative assessment of the EVMS itself. Galway (2004) practically linked project quantitative risk assessment to EVM by focusing on cost...Kindle version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com 83 Galway , L. (2004, February). Quantitative risk analysis for project management: A critical review

Heart failure disease management programs: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Chan, David C; Heidenreich, Paul A; Weinstein, Milton C; Fonarow, Gregg C

2008-02-01

Heart failure (HF) disease management programs have shown impressive reductions in hospitalizations and mortality, but in studies limited to short time frames and high-risk patient populations. Current guidelines thus only recommend disease management targeted to high-risk patients with HF. This study applied a new technique to infer the degree to which clinical trials have targeted patients by risk based on observed rates of hospitalization and death. A Markov model was used to assess the incremental life expectancy and cost of providing disease management for high-risk to low-risk patients. Sensitivity analyses of various long-term scenarios and of reduced effectiveness in low-risk patients were also considered. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of extending coverage to all patients was $9700 per life-year gained in the base case. In aggregate, universal coverage almost quadrupled life-years saved as compared to coverage of only the highest quintile of risk. A worst case analysis with simultaneous conservative assumptions yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $110,000 per life-year gained. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 99.74% of possible incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were <$50,000 per life-year gained. Heart failure disease management programs are likely cost-effective in the long-term along the whole spectrum of patient risk. Health gains could be extended by enrolling a broader group of patients with HF in disease management.

The Effects of the A Matter of Balance Program on Falls and Physical Risk of Falls, Tampa, Florida, 2013.

PubMed

Chen, Tuo-Yu; Edwards, Jerri D; Janke, Megan C

2015-09-24

This study investigated the effects of the A Matter of Balance (MOB) program on falls and physical risk factors of falling among community-dwelling older adults living in Tampa, Florida, in 2013. A total of 110 adults (52 MOB, 58 comparison) were enrolled in this prospective cohort study. Data on falls, physical risk of falling, and other known risk factors of falling were collected at baseline and at the end of the program. Multivariate analysis of covariance with repeated measures and logistic regressions were used to investigate the effects of this program. Participants in the MOB group were less likely to have had a fall and had significant improvements in their physical risk of falling compared with adults in the comparison group. No significant effects of the MOB program on recurrent falls or the number of falls reported were found. This study contributes to our understanding of the MOB program and its effectiveness in reducing falls and the physical risk of falling among older adults. The findings support extended use of this program to reduce falls and physical risk of falling among older adults.

Building uncertainty into cost-effectiveness rankings: portfolio risk-return tradeoffs and implications for decision rules.

PubMed

O'Brien, B J; Sculpher, M J

2000-05-01

Current principles of cost-effectiveness analysis emphasize the rank ordering of programs by expected economic return (eg, quality-adjusted life-years gained per dollar expended). This criterion ignores the variance associated with the cost-effectiveness of a program, yet variance is a common measure of risk when financial investment options are appraised. Variation in health care program return is likely to be a criterion of program selection for health care managers with fixed budgets and outcome performance targets. Characterizing health care resource allocation as a risky investment problem, we show how concepts of portfolio analysis from financial economics can be adopted as a conceptual framework for presenting cost-effectiveness data from multiple programs as mean-variance data. Two specific propositions emerge: (1) the current convention of ranking programs by expected return is a special case of the portfolio selection problem in which the decision maker is assumed to be indifferent to risk, and (2) for risk-averse decision makers, the degree of joint risk or covariation in cost-effectiveness between programs will create incentives to diversify an investment portfolio. The conventional normative assumption of risk neutrality for social-level public investment decisions does not apply to a large number of health care resource allocation decisions in which health care managers seek to maximize returns subject to budget constraints and performance targets. Portfolio theory offers a useful framework for studying mean-variance tradeoffs in cost-effectiveness and offers some positive predictions (and explanations) of actual decision making in the health care sector.

Bridging the two cultures of risk analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jasanoff, S.

1993-04-01

During the past 15 years, risk analysis has come of age as an interdisciplinary field of remarkable breadth, nurturing connections among fields as diverse as mathematics, biostatistics, toxicology, and engineering on one hand, and law, psychology, sociology, and economics on the other hand. In this editorial, the author addresses the question: What has the presence of social scientists in the network meant to the substantive development of the field of risk analysis The answers offered here discuss the substantial progress in bridging the two cultures of risk analysis. Emphasis is made of the continual need for monitoring risk analysis. Topicsmore » include: the micro-worlds of risk assessment; constraining assumptions; and exchange programs. 14 refs.« less

NPS Government Purchase Card Program: An Analysis of Internal Controls

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-01

approving official APC agency program coordinator CCPMD Consolidated Card Program Management Division CH cardholder COSO Committee of Sponsoring...correct, and minimize fraud, waste, and abuse” (DPAP, 2011, p. 2-2). To minimize risks , the management and internal controls should have support from...three interrelated subjects: enterprise risk management (ERM), internal control, and fraud deterrence” (para. 6). The 23 five components of an

Engineering risk reduction in satellite programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, E. S., Jr.

1979-01-01

Methods developed in planning and executing system safety engineering programs for Lockheed satellite integration contracts are presented. These procedures establish the applicable safety design criteria, document design compliance and assess the residual risks where non-compliant design is proposed, and provide for hazard analysis of system level test, handling and launch preparations. Operations hazard analysis identifies product protection and product liability hazards prior to the preparation of operational procedures and provides safety requirements for inclusion in them. The method developed for documenting all residual hazards for the attention of program management assures an acceptable minimum level of risk prior to program deployment. The results are significant for persons responsible for managing or engineering the deployment and production of complex high cost equipment under current product liability law and cost/time constraints, have a responsibility to minimize the possibility of an accident, and should have documentation to provide a defense in a product liability suit.

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

The role of risk-based prioritization in total quality management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, C.T.

1994-10-01

The climate in which government managers must make decisions grows more complex and uncertain. All stakeholders - the public, industry, and Congress - are demanding greater consciousness, responsibility, and accountability of programs and their budgets. Yet, managerial decisions have become multifaceted, involve greater risk, and operate over much longer time periods. Over the last four or five decades, as policy analysis and decisions became more complex, scientists from psychology, operations research, systems science, and economics have developed a more or less coherent process called decision analysis to aid program management. The process of decision analysis - a systems theoretic approachmore » - provides the backdrop for this paper. The Laboratory Integrated Prioritization System (LIPS) has been developed as a systems analytic and risk-based prioritization tool to aid the management of the Tri-Labs` (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) operating resources. Preliminary analyses of the effects of LIPS has confirmed the practical benefits of decision and systems sciences - the systematic, quantitative reduction in uncertainty. To date, the use of LIPS - and, hence, its value - has been restricted to resource allocation within the Tri-Labs` operations budgets. This report extends the role of risk-based prioritization to the support of DOE Total Quality Management (TQM) programs. Furthermore, this paper will argue for the requirement to institutionalize an evolutionary, decision theoretic approach to the policy analysis of the Department of Energy`s Program Budget.« less

Continuous Risk Management: A NASA Program Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammer, Theodore F.; Rosenberg, Linda

1999-01-01

NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

Cost effectiveness of a systematic guidelines-based approach to the prevention and management of vascular disease in a primary care setting.

PubMed

Kamboj, Laveena; Oh, Paul; Levine, Mitchell; Kammila, Srinu; Casey, William; Harterre, Don; Goeree, Ron

2016-01-15

In Ontario, Canada, the Comprehensive Vascular Disease Prevention and Management Initiative (CVDPMI) was undertaken to improve the vascular health in communities. The CVDPMI significantly improved cardiovascular (CV) risk factor profiles from baseline to follow-up visits including the 10 year Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Although the CVDPMI improved CV risk, the economic value of this program had not been evaluated. We examined the cost effectiveness of the CVDPMI program compared to no CVDPMI program in adult patients identified at risk for an initial or subsequent vascular event in a primary care setting. A one year and a ten year cost effectiveness analyses were conducted. To determine the uncertainty around the cost per life year gained ratio, a non-parametric bootstrap analysis was conducted. The overall population base case analysis at one year resulted in a cost per CV event avoided of $70,423. FRS subgroup analyses showed the high risk cohort (FRS >20%) had an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) that was dominant. In the moderate risk subgroup (FRS 10%-20%) the ICER was $47,439 per CV event avoided and the low risk subgroup (FRS <10%) showed a highly cost ineffective result of greater than $5 million per CV event avoided. The ten year analysis resulted in a dominant ICER. At one year, the CVDPMI program is economically acceptable for patients at moderate to high risk for CV events. The CVDPMI results in increased life expectancy at an incremental cost saving to the healthcare system over a ten year period. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

7 CFR 371.9 - Policy and Program Development.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 5 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Policy and Program Development. 371.9 Section 371.9... and Program Development. (a) General statement. Policy and Program Development (PPD) provides... development; and policy, risk, and economic analysis for APHIS programs. (3) Analyzing the environmental...

Public Risk Assessment Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mendeck, Gavin

2010-01-01

The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

Assessment of the influence of test characteristics on the clinical and cost impacts of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus screening programs in US hospitals.

PubMed

Olchanski, Natalia; Mathews, Charles; Fusfeld, Lauren; Jarvis, William

2011-03-01

To compare the impacts of different methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) screening test options (eg, polymerase chain reaction [PCR], rapid culture) and program characteristics on the clinical outcomes and budget of a typical US hospital. We developed an Excel-based decision-analytic model, using published literature to calculate and compare hospital costs and MRSA infection rates for PCR- or culture-based MRSA screening and then used multivariate sensitivity analysis to evaluate key variables. Same-day PCR testing for a representative 370-bed teaching hospital in the United States was assessed in different populations (high-risk patients, intensive care unit [ICU] patients, or all patients) and compared with other test options. Different screening program populations (all patients, high-risk patients, ICU patients, or patients with previous MRSA colonization or infection only) represented a potential savings of $12,158-$76,624 per month over no program ($188,618). Analysis of multiple test options in high-risk population screening indicated that same-day PCR testing of high-risk patients resulted in fewer infections over 1,720 patient-days (2.9, compared with 3.5 for culture on selective media and 3.8 for culture on nonselective media) and the lowest total cost ($112,012). The costs of other testing approaches ranged from $113,742 to $123,065. Sensitivity analysis revealed that variations in transmission rate, conversion to infection, prevalence increases, and hospital size are important to determine program impact. Among test characteristics, turnaround time is highly influential. All screening options showed reductions in infection rates and cost impact improvement over no screening program. Among the options, same-day PCR testing for high-risk patients slightly edges out the others in terms of fewest infections and greatest potential cost savings.

Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massie, Michael J.; Morris, A. Terry

2011-01-01

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions.

Medical-device risk management and public safety: using cost-benefit as a measurement of effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Allen A.

1994-12-01

Public safety can be enhanced through the development of a comprehensive medical device risk management. This can be accomplished through case studies using a framework that incorporates cost-benefit analysis in the evaluation of risk management attributes. This paper presents a framework for evaluating the risk management system for regulatory Class III medical devices. The framework consists of the following sixteen attributes of a comprehensive medical device risk management system: fault/failure analysis, premarket testing/clinical trials, post-approval studies, manufacturer sponsored hospital studies, product labeling, establishment inspections, problem reporting program, mandatory hospital reporting, medical literature surveillance, device/patient registries, device performance monitoring, returned product analysis, autopsy program, emergency treatment funds/interim compensation, product liability, and alternative compensation mechanisms. Review of performance histories for several medical devices can reveal the value of information for many attributes, and also the inter-dependencies of the attributes in generating risk information flow. Such an information flow network is presented as a starting point for enhancing medical device risk management by focusing on attributes with high net benefit values and potential to spur information dissemination.

JCL Implementation On A Human Spaceflight Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulpa, Vyga; Karpowich, Mike; Abel, Diana; Archiable, Wes; Carson, William

2013-01-01

Joint Confidence Level (JCL) analysis focuses on the integration of traditionally stove-piped programmatic components (schedule, cost and risk) to establish projected resource and schedule requirements at various confidence levels and to identify programmatic cost and schedule risk drivers. SLS Program consists of multiple Prime Contractors managed by independent SLS Elements which are integrated using SE&I and Program Management. SLS further integrates with GSDO and MPCV through ESD integrated working groups.

An Independent Evaluation of the FMEA/CIL Hazard Analysis Alternative Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Paul S.

1996-01-01

The present instruments of safety and reliability risk control for a majority of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs/projects consist of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Critical Items List (CIL), and Hazard Report (HR). This extensive analytical approach was introduced in the early 1970's and was implemented for the Space Shuttle Program by NHB 5300.4 (1D-2. Since the Challenger accident in 1986, the process has been expanded considerably and resulted in introduction of similar and/or duplicated activities in the safety/reliability risk analysis. A study initiated in 1995, to search for an alternative to the current FMEA/CIL Hazard Analysis methodology generated a proposed method on April 30, 1996. The objective of this Summer Faculty Study was to participate in and conduct an independent evaluation of the proposed alternative to simplify the present safety and reliability risk control procedure.

Classroom Practices and Academic Outcomes in Urban Afterschool Programs: Alleviating Social-Behavioral Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cappella, Elise; Hwang, Sophia H. J.; Kieffer, Michael J.; Yates, Miranda

2018-01-01

Given the potential of afterschool programs to support youth in urban, low-income communities, we examined the role of afterschool classroom ecology in the academic outcomes of Latino and African American youth with and without social-behavioral risk. Using multireporter methods and multilevel analysis, we find that positive classroom ecology…

Measuring Security Effectiveness and Efficiency at U.S. Commercial Airports

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

formative program evaluation and policy analysis to investigate current airport security programs. It identifies innovative public administration and...policy-analysis tools that could provide potential benefits to airport security . These tools will complement the System Based Risk Management framework if

Gian Porro | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Technical Risk Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies ProgramPDF. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy analysis and planning activities (PAE Hub) Research Interests Analytical support to Geothermal Technologies Program, including assessment of the competitiveness of geothermal electricity generation Investigation of

Preventing Child Abuse: A Meta-Analysis of Parent Training Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundahl, Brad W.; Nimer, Janelle; Parsons, Bruce

2006-01-01

Objective: A meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the ability of parent training programs to reduce parents' risk of abusing a child. Method: A total of 23 studies were submitted to a meta-analysis. Outcomes of interest included parents' attitudes toward abuse, emotional adjustment, child-rearing skills, and actual abuse. Conclusions:…

A gloomy picture: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials reveals disappointing effectiveness of programs aiming at preventing child maltreatment.

PubMed

Euser, Saskia; Alink, Lenneke Ra; Stoltenborgh, Marije; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; van IJzendoorn, Marinus H

2015-10-18

Consistent findings about the effectiveness of parent programs to prevent or reduce child maltreatment are lacking. In the present meta-analysis we synthesized findings from 27 independent samples from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on the effectiveness of 20 different intervention programs aimed at (i) preventing the occurrence of child maltreatment in the general population or with at-risk but non-maltreating families, or (ii) reducing the incidence of child maltreatment in maltreating families. A significant combined effect on maltreatment (d = 0.13; N = 4883) disappeared after the trim-and-fill approach that takes into account publication bias against smaller studies without significant outcomes. However, moderator analyses showed that larger effect sizes were found for more recent studies, studies with smaller samples, programs that provide parent training instead of only support, programs that target maltreating instead of at-risk families, and programs with a moderate length (6-12 months) or a moderate number of sessions (16-30). More RCTs are needed to further unravel which factors are associated with program effectiveness. Because currently existing programs appeared to only reduce and not prevent child maltreatment, efforts in the field of preventive intervention should also focus on the development and testing of preventive programs for families at risk for child maltreatment.

Interim reliability-evaluation program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Appendix C - sequence quantification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

This report describes a risk study of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. The study is one of four such studies sponsored by the NRC Office of Research, Division of Risk Assessment, as part of its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP), Phase II. This report is contained in four volumes: a main report and three appendixes. Appendix C generally describes the methods used to estimate accident sequence frequency values. Information is presented concerning the approach, example collection, failure data, candidate dominant sequences, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis.

Johnson Space Center's Risk and Reliability Analysis Group 2008 Annual Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valentine, Mark; Boyer, Roger; Cross, Bob; Hamlin, Teri; Roelant, Henk; Stewart, Mike; Bigler, Mark; Winter, Scott; Reistle, Bruce; Heydorn,Dick

2009-01-01

The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate s Risk and Reliability Analysis Group provides both mathematical and engineering analysis expertise in the areas of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) analysis, and data collection and analysis. The fundamental goal of this group is to provide National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decisionmakers with the necessary information to make informed decisions when evaluating personnel, flight hardware, and public safety concerns associated with current operating systems as well as with any future systems. The Analysis Group includes a staff of statistical and reliability experts with valuable backgrounds in the statistical, reliability, and engineering fields. This group includes JSC S&MA Analysis Branch personnel as well as S&MA support services contractors, such as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and SoHaR. The Analysis Group s experience base includes nuclear power (both commercial and navy), manufacturing, Department of Defense, chemical, and shipping industries, as well as significant aerospace experience specifically in the Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and Constellation Programs. The Analysis Group partners with project and program offices, other NASA centers, NASA contractors, and universities to provide additional resources or information to the group when performing various analysis tasks. The JSC S&MA Analysis Group is recognized as a leader in risk and reliability analysis within the NASA community. Therefore, the Analysis Group is in high demand to help the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) continue to fly safely, assist in designing the next generation spacecraft for the Constellation Program (CxP), and promote advanced analytical techniques. The Analysis Section s tasks include teaching classes and instituting personnel qualification processes to enhance the professional abilities of our analysts as well as performing major probabilistic assessments used to support flight rationale and help establish program requirements. During 2008, the Analysis Group performed more than 70 assessments. Although all these assessments were important, some were instrumental in the decisionmaking processes for the Shuttle and Constellation Programs. Two of the more significant tasks were the Space Transportation System (STS)-122 Low Level Cutoff PRA for the SSP and the Orion Pad Abort One (PA-1) PRA for the CxP. These two activities, along with the numerous other tasks the Analysis Group performed in 2008, are summarized in this report. This report also highlights several ongoing and upcoming efforts to provide crucial statistical and probabilistic assessments, such as the Extravehicular Activity (EVA) PRA for the Hubble Space Telescope service mission and the first fully integrated PRAs for the CxP's Lunar Sortie and ISS missions.

Workplace Violence Training Programs for Health Care Workers: An Analysis of Program Elements.

PubMed

Arbury, Sheila; Hodgson, Michael; Zankowski, Donna; Lipscomb, Jane

2017-06-01

Commercial workplace violence (WPV) prevention training programs differ in their approach to violence prevention and the content they present. This study reviews 12 such programs using criteria developed from training topics in the Occupational Safety and Health Administration's (OSHA) Guidelines for Preventing Workplace Violence for Healthcare and Social Service Workers and a review of the WPV literature. None of the training programs addressed all the review criteria. The most significant gap in content was the lack of attention to facility-specific risk assessment and policies. To fill this gap, health care facilities should supplement purchased training programs with specific training in organizational policies and procedures, emergency action plans, communication, facility risk assessment, and employee post-incident debriefing and monitoring. Critical to success is a dedicated program manager who understands risk assessment, facility clinical operations, and program management and evaluation.

Guidance for Facilities on Risk Management Programs (RMP)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Includes supplemental guidance specific to ammonia refrigeration, wastewater treatment, propane storage, warehouses, chemical distributors, offsite consequence analysis, retail agriculture, applicability of program levels, prevention, emergency response.

Cost effectiveness of a smoking cessation program in patients admitted for coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Quist-Paulsen, Petter; Lydersen, Stian; Bakke, Per S; Gallefoss, Frode

2006-04-01

Smoking cessation is probably the most important action to reduce mortality after a coronary event. Smoking cessation programs are not widely implemented in patients with coronary heart disease, however, possibly because they are thought not to be worth their costs. Our objectives were to estimate the cost effectiveness of a smoking cessation program, and to compare it with other treatment modalities in cardiovascular medicine. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed on the basis of a recently conducted randomized smoking cessation intervention trial in patients admitted for coronary heart disease. The cost per life year gained by the smoking cessation program was derived from the resources necessary to implement the program, the number needed to treat to get one additional quitter from the program, and the years of life gained if quitting smoking. The cost effectiveness was estimated in a low-risk group (i.e. patients with stable coronary heart disease) and a high-risk group (i.e. patients after myocardial infarction or unstable angina), using survival data from previously published investigations, and with life-time extrapolation of the survival curves by survival function modeling. In a lifetime perspective, the incremental cost per year of life gained by the smoking cessation program was euro 280 and euro 110 in the low and high-risk group, respectively (2000 prices). These costs compare favorably to other treatment modalities in patients with coronary heart disease, being approximately 1/25 the cost of both statins in the low-risk group and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors in the high-risk group. In a sensitivity analysis, the costs remained low in a wide range of assumptions. A nurse-led smoking cessation program with several months of intervention is very cost-effective compared with other treatment modalities in patients with coronary heart disease.

Reduced-risk pest management programs for eastern U.S. peach orchards: effects on arthropod predators, parasitoids, and select pests.

PubMed

Biddinger, David J; Leslie, Timothy W; Joshi, Neelendra K

2014-06-01

We developed new integrated pest management programs for eastern U.S. peaches with minimal use of organophosphates. From 2002-2005, we assessed the ecological impacts of these reduced-risk programs versus grower standard conventional programs that still relied primarily on the use of organophosphorous and carbamate insecticides. Using a split-plot design replicated at four commercial Pennsylvania peach orchards, we quantified pesticide rates, environmental impact, and arthropod community response. We used Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) analysis based on the growers' pesticide records from each orchard to calculate seasonal cumulative EIQ field ratings for all years. Ecological effects of the reduced-risk and conventional program were also measured as the abundance and diversity of nontarget arthropod predators, parasitoids, and selected pest taxa. Pesticide inputs and EIQ values were substantially lower in reduced-risk programs compared with conventional spray programs. Arthropod arrays differed significantly between pest management programs: most beneficial predator and parasitoid taxa were positively associated with the reduced-risk program and negatively associated with the standard grower program. Regardless of the pest management program, we observed significant differences in species arrays in the peach tree canopy compared with the ground cover of the orchards, but the arthropod community did not differ among the field sites or based on distance from the edge of the orchard. We conclude that reduced-risk programs not only provide control comparable with that of conventional programs, but they also reduce negative environmental effects while conserving key arthropod biological control agents within eastern U.S. peach orchards.

12 CFR 618.8020 - Feasibility requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

...) An analysis of how the program relates to or promotes the institution's business plan and strategic... costs and risks involved in offering the program, such as management and personnel requirements...

NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duda, Kristen; Scroggins, Sharon

2008-01-01

NASA's mission is to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research. To help enable existing and future programs to pursue this mission, NASA has established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) to proactively identify, analyze, and communicate environmental regulatory risks to the NASA community. The RRAC PC is chartered to evaluate the risks posed to NASA Programs and facilities by environmentally related drivers. The RRAC PC focuses on emerging environmental regulations, as well as risks related to operational changes that can trigger existing environmental requirements. Changing regulations have the potential to directly affect program activities. For example, regulatory changes can restrict certain activities or operations by mandating changes in how operations may be done or limiting where or how certain operations can take place. Regulatory changes also can directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Such changes can result in NASA undertaking material replacement efforts. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented several strategies for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA Programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the lessons learned through establishing the RRAC PC, the process by which the RRAC PC monitors and distributes information about emerging regulatory requirements, and the cross-Agency cooperation that is vital to supporting NASA's mission.

NASA's Agency-wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duda, Kristen; Scroggins. Sharon

2008-01-01

NASA's mission is to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research. To help enable existing and future programs to pursue this mission, NASA has established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) to proactively identify, analyze, and communicate environmental regulatory risks to the NASA community. The RRAC PC is chartered to evaluate the risks posed to NASA Programs and facilities by environmentally related drivers. The RRAC PC focuses on emerging environmental regulations, as well as risks related to operational changes that can trigger existing environmental requirements. Changing regulations have the potential to directly affect program activities. For example, regulatory changes can restrict certain activities or operations by mandating changes in how operations may be done or limiting where or how certain operations can take place. Regulatory changes also can directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage aPi'iications of certain materials. Such changes can result in NASA undertaking material replacement efforts. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented several strategies for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA Programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the lessons learned through establishing the RRAC PC, the process by which the RRAC PC monitors and distributes information about emerging regulatory requirements, and the cross-Agency cooperation that is vital to supporting NASA's mission.

THE SOUTHWEST REGIONAL GAP PROJECT: A DATABASE MODEL FOR REGIONAL LANDSCAPE ASSESSMENT, RESOURCE PLANNING, AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

The Gap Analysis Program (GAP) is a national interagency program that maps the distribution of plant communities and selected animal species and compares these distributions with land stewardship to identify biotic elements at potential risk of endangerment. Acquisition of primar...

JAVA CLASSES FOR NONPROCEDURAL VARIOGRAM MONITORING

EPA Science Inventory

A set of Java classes was written for variogram modeling to support research for US EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program (ReVA). The modeling objectives of this research program are to use conceptual programming tools for numerical analysis for regional risk assessm...

Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program. Risk Analysis of the Disposal of Chemical Munitions at Regional or National Sites.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-08-01

THE DISPOSAL OF CNEM.. CU) GA TECHNOLOGIES INC SRN DIEGO CA A H SARSELL ET AL. RUG 97 GA-C- i @563 UNLRSS FIED S APEO-CDE-IS- 9 ?SIGDRAA±5-85-D-822...F/ 15/.3 NL I ihhhhhhhhhhhhlm I fflfflffllfllfllfllf smhhhhhhhhhhh ~1.02 U.,5 A I *Pig- FiLE copy CHEMICAL STOCKPILE DISPOSAL PROGRAM RISK ANALYSIS...vr~. ’ . - a ’ a’ ’- . ,I1 - .V [ N- VW; W UU V. , U .U : , r ,,, - . ..... . SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE IM : I omApproved

Plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D and progression to diabetes in patients at risk for diabetes: an ancillary analysis in the diabetes prevention program

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We investigated the association between vitamin D status, assessed by plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and risk of incident diabetes. The research design and methods were a prospective observational study with a mean follow-up of 2.7 years in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), a multi-center trial co...

Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) program planning and evaluation methodology development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickinson, William B.

1995-01-01

An Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project Management Plan (PMP) is prepared. An ESDIS Project Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) consistent with the developed PMP is also prepared. ESDIS and related EOS program requirements developments, management and analysis processes are evaluated. Opportunities to improve the effectiveness of these processes and program/project responsiveness to requirements are identified. Overall ESDIS cost estimation processes are evaluated, and recommendations to improve cost estimating and modeling techniques are developed. ESDIS schedules and scheduling tools are evaluated. Risk assessment, risk mitigation strategies and approaches, and use of risk information in management decision-making are addressed.

PACE and the Medicare+Choice risk-adjusted payment model.

PubMed

Temkin-Greener, H; Meiners, M R; Gruenberg, L

2001-01-01

This paper investigates the impact of the Medicare principal inpatient diagnostic cost group (PIP-DCG) payment model on the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Currently, more than 6,000 Medicare beneficiaries who are nursing home certifiable receive care from PACE, a program poised for expansion under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. Overall, our analysis suggests that the application of the PIP-DCG model to the PACE program would reduce Medicare payments to PACE, on average, by 38%. The PIP-DCG payment model bases its risk adjustment on inpatient diagnoses and does not capture adequately the risk of caring for a population with functional impairments.

INTEGRATING ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN WATERSHEDS: A CONCEPTUAL APPROACH AND THREE CASE STUDIES

EPA Science Inventory

This document reports on a program of research to investigate the integration of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and economics, with an emphasis on the watershed as the scale for analysis. In 1993, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency initiated watershed ERA (W-ERA) in five...

40 CFR 1400.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... PREVENTION REQUIREMENTS; RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS UNDER THE CLEAN AIR ACT SECTION 112(r)(7); DISTRIBUTION OF... analysis (OCA) information means sections 2 through 5 of a risk management plan (consisting of an... through 5 of a risk management plan or any Administrator-created electronic database. (k) Off-site...

An evaluation of the Well at Dell health management program: health risk change and financial return on investment.

PubMed

Musich, Shirley; McCalister, Tre'; Wang, Sara; Hawkins, Kevin

2015-01-01

To investigate the effectiveness of the Well at Dell comprehensive health management program in delivering health care and productivity cost savings relative to program investment (i.e., return on investment). A quasi-experimental design was used to quantify the financial impact of the program and nonexperimental pre-post design to evaluate change in health risks. Ongoing worksite health management program implemented across multiple U.S. locations. Subjects were 24,651 employees with continuous medical enrollment in 2010-2011 who were eligible for 2011 health management programming. Incentive-driven, outcomes-based multicomponent corporate health management program including health risk appraisal (HRA)/wellness, lifestyle management, and disease management coaching programs. Medical, pharmacy, and short-term disability pre/post expenditure trends adjusted for demographics, health status, and baseline costs. Self-reported health risks from repeat HRA completers. Analysis: Propensity score-weighted and multivariate regression-adjusted comparison of baseline to post trends in health care expenditures and productivity costs for program participants and nonparticipants (i.e., difference in difference) relative to programmatic investment. The Well at Dell program achieved an overall return on investment of 2.48 in 2011. Most of the savings were realized from the HRA/wellness component of the program. Cost savings were supported with high participation and significant health risk improvement. An incentive-driven, well-managed comprehensive corporate health management program can continue to achieve significant health improvement while promoting health care and productivity cost savings in an employee population.

A Framework for Assessment of Aviation Safety Technology Portfolios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Sharon M.; Reveley, Mary S.

2014-01-01

The programs within NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conduct research and development to improve the national air transportation system so that Americans can travel as safely as possible. NASA aviation safety systems analysis personnel support various levels of ARMD management in their fulfillment of system analysis and technology prioritization as defined in the agency's program and project requirements. This paper provides a framework for the assessment of aviation safety research and technology portfolios that includes metrics such as projected impact on current and future safety, technical development risk and implementation risk. The paper also contains methods for presenting portfolio analysis and aviation safety Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) output results to management using bubble charts and quantitative decision analysis techniques.

Risk Management for Human Support Technology Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

jones, Harry

2005-01-01

NASA requires continuous risk management for all programs and projects. The risk management process identifies risks, analyzes their impact, prioritizes them, develops and carries out plans to mitigate or accept them, tracks risks and mitigation plans, and communicates and documents risk information. Project risk management is driven by the project goal and is performed by the entire team. Risk management begins early in the formulation phase with initial risk identification and development of a risk management plan and continues throughout the project life cycle. This paper describes the risk management approach that is suggested for use in NASA's Human Support Technology Development. The first step in risk management is to identify the detailed technical and programmatic risks specific to a project. Each individual risk should be described in detail. The identified risks are summarized in a complete risk list. Risk analysis provides estimates of the likelihood and the qualitative impact of a risk. The likelihood and impact of the risk are used to define its priority location in the risk matrix. The approaches for responding to risk are either to mitigate it by eliminating or reducing the effect or likelihood of a risk, to accept it with a documented rationale and contingency plan, or to research or monitor the risk, The Human Support Technology Development program includes many projects with independently achievable goals. Each project must do independent risk management, considering all its risks together and trading them against performance, budget, and schedule. Since the program can succeed even if some projects fail, the program risk has a complex dependence on the individual project risks.

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cirillo, William M.; Earle, Kevin D.; Goodliff, Kandyce E.; Reeves, J. D.; Stromgren, Chel; Andraschko, Mark R.; Merrill, R. Gabe

2008-01-01

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

NASA's Agency-Wide Strategy for Environmental Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scroggins, Sharon

2008-01-01

NASA's Agency-wide.resource for identifying and managing risks associated with changing environmental regulations Goals of the RRAC PC: 1) Proactively. detect, analyze and communicate environmental regulatory risks to NASA Programs and facilities; 2) Communicate with regulators and participate in the mitigation of such risks; and 3) Provide centralized support on emerging regulations to NASA HQ Environmental Management Division. When significant regulatory changes are identified, timely communication is essential. Communication of changing requirements to the regulatory stakeholders - NASA Programs and Facilities. Communication of potential issues to management and, when appropriate, back to the regulating agency.

An application of multiattribute decision analysis to the Space Station Freedom program. Case study: Automation and robotics technology evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeffrey H.; Levin, Richard R.; Carpenter, Elisabeth J.

1990-01-01

The results are described of an application of multiattribute analysis to the evaluation of high leverage prototyping technologies in the automation and robotics (A and R) areas that might contribute to the Space Station (SS) Freedom baseline design. An implication is that high leverage prototyping is beneficial to the SS Freedom Program as a means for transferring technology from the advanced development program to the baseline program. The process also highlights the tradeoffs to be made between subsidizing high value, low risk technology development versus high value, high risk technology developments. Twenty one A and R Technology tasks spanning a diverse array of technical concepts were evaluated using multiattribute decision analysis. Because of large uncertainties associated with characterizing the technologies, the methodology was modified to incorporate uncertainty. Eight attributes affected the rankings: initial cost, operation cost, crew productivity, safety, resource requirements, growth potential, and spinoff potential. The four attributes of initial cost, operations cost, crew productivity, and safety affected the rankings the most.

Development of the performance confirmation program at YUCCA mountain, nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeCain, G.D.; Barr, D.; Weaver, D.; Snell, R.; Goodin, S.W.; Hansen, F.D.

2006-01-01

The Yucca Mountain Performance Confirmation program consists of tests, monitoring activities, experiments, and analyses to evaluate the adequacy of assumptions, data, and analyses that form the basis of the conceptual and numerical models of flow and transport associated with a proposed radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The Performance Confirmation program uses an eight-stage risk-informed, performance-based approach. Selection of the Performance Confirmation activities for inclusion in the Performance Confirmation program was done using a risk-informed performance-based decision analysis. The result of this analysis was a Performance Confirmation base portfolio that consists of 20 activities. The 20 Performance Confirmation activities include geologic, hydrologie, and construction/engineering testing. Some of the activities began during site characterization, and others will begin during construction, or post emplacement, and continue until repository closure.

A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions

PubMed Central

Li, Jia; Wang, Deming; Huang, Zonghou

2017-01-01

Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents. PMID:28793348

A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions.

PubMed

Wang, Hetang; Li, Jia; Wang, Deming; Huang, Zonghou

2017-01-01

Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents.

Diet-induced changes in maternal gut microbiota and metabolomic profiles influence programming of offspring obesity risk in rats.

PubMed

Paul, Heather A; Bomhof, Marc R; Vogel, Hans J; Reimer, Raylene A

2016-02-12

Maternal obesity and overnutrition during pregnancy and lactation can program an increased risk of obesity in offspring. In this context, improving maternal metabolism may help reduce the intergenerational transmission of obesity. Here we show that, in Sprague-Dawley rats, selectively altering obese maternal gut microbial composition with prebiotic treatment reduces maternal energy intake, decreases gestational weight gain, and prevents increased adiposity in dams and their offspring. Maternal serum metabolomics analysis, along with satiety hormone and gut microbiota analysis, identified maternal metabolic signatures that could be implicated in programming offspring obesity risk and highlighted the potential influence of maternal gut microbiota on maternal and offspring metabolism. In particular, the metabolomic signature of insulin resistance in obese rats normalized when dams consumed the prebiotic. In summary, prebiotic intake during pregnancy and lactation improves maternal metabolism in diet-induced obese rats in a manner that attenuates the detrimental nutritional programming of offspring associated with maternal obesity. Overall, these findings contribute to our understanding of the maternal mechanisms influencing the developmental programming of offspring obesity and provide compelling pre-clinical evidence for a potential strategy to improve maternal and offspring metabolic outcomes in human pregnancy.

Diet-induced changes in maternal gut microbiota and metabolomic profiles influence programming of offspring obesity risk in rats

PubMed Central

Paul, Heather A.; Bomhof, Marc R.; Vogel, Hans J.; Reimer, Raylene A.

2016-01-01

Maternal obesity and overnutrition during pregnancy and lactation can program an increased risk of obesity in offspring. In this context, improving maternal metabolism may help reduce the intergenerational transmission of obesity. Here we show that, in Sprague-Dawley rats, selectively altering obese maternal gut microbial composition with prebiotic treatment reduces maternal energy intake, decreases gestational weight gain, and prevents increased adiposity in dams and their offspring. Maternal serum metabolomics analysis, along with satiety hormone and gut microbiota analysis, identified maternal metabolic signatures that could be implicated in programming offspring obesity risk and highlighted the potential influence of maternal gut microbiota on maternal and offspring metabolism. In particular, the metabolomic signature of insulin resistance in obese rats normalized when dams consumed the prebiotic. In summary, prebiotic intake during pregnancy and lactation improves maternal metabolism in diet-induced obese rats in a manner that attenuates the detrimental nutritional programming of offspring associated with maternal obesity. Overall, these findings contribute to our understanding of the maternal mechanisms influencing the developmental programming of offspring obesity and provide compelling pre-clinical evidence for a potential strategy to improve maternal and offspring metabolic outcomes in human pregnancy. PMID:26868870

The Necessity of Functional Analysis for Space Exploration Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry; Breidenthal, Julian C.

2011-01-01

As NASA moves toward expanded commercial spaceflight within its human exploration capability, there is increased emphasis on how to allocate responsibilities between government and commercial organizations to achieve coordinated program objectives. The practice of program-level functional analysis offers an opportunity for improved understanding of collaborative functions among heterogeneous partners. Functional analysis is contrasted with the physical analysis more commonly done at the program level, and is shown to provide theoretical performance, risk, and safety advantages beneficial to a government-commercial partnership. Performance advantages include faster convergence to acceptable system solutions; discovery of superior solutions with higher commonality, greater simplicity and greater parallelism by substituting functional for physical redundancy to achieve robustness and safety goals; and greater organizational cohesion around program objectives. Risk advantages include avoidance of rework by revelation of some kinds of architectural and contractual mismatches before systems are specified, designed, constructed, or integrated; avoidance of cost and schedule growth by more complete and precise specifications of cost and schedule estimates; and higher likelihood of successful integration on the first try. Safety advantages include effective delineation of must-work and must-not-work functions for integrated hazard analysis, the ability to formally demonstrate completeness of safety analyses, and provably correct logic for certification of flight readiness. The key mechanism for realizing these benefits is the development of an inter-functional architecture at the program level, which reveals relationships between top-level system requirements that would otherwise be invisible using only a physical architecture. This paper describes the advantages and pitfalls of functional analysis as a means of coordinating the actions of large heterogeneous organizations for space exploration programs.

40 CFR 1400.5 - Internet access to certain off-site consequence analysis data elements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... AGENCY AND DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE ACCIDENTAL RELEASE PREVENTION REQUIREMENTS; RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS... elements in the risk management plan database available on the Internet: (a) The concentration of the...

TU-AB-BRD-04: Development of Quality Management Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomadsen, B.

2015-06-15

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before amore » failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to perform failure modes and effects analysis analysis for a given process Learn what fault trees are all about Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis. Dunscombe: Director, TreatSafely, LLC and Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences; Consultant to IAEA and Varian Thomadsen: President, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences Palta: Vice President of the Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences.« less

Are youth mentoring programs good value-for-money? An evaluation of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Melbourne Program.

PubMed

Moodie, Marjory L; Fisher, Jane

2009-01-30

The Big Brothers Big Sisters (BBBS) program matches vulnerable young people with a trained, supervised adult volunteer as mentor. The young people are typically seriously disadvantaged, with multiple psychosocial problems. Threshold analysis was undertaken to determine whether investment in the program was a worthwhile use of limited public funds. The potential cost savings were based on US estimates of life-time costs associated with high-risk youth who drop out-of-school and become adult criminals. The intervention was modelled for children aged 10-14 years residing in Melbourne in 2004. If the program serviced 2,208 of the most vulnerable young people, it would cost AUD 39.5 M. Assuming 50% were high-risk, the associated costs of their adult criminality would be AUD 3.3 billion. To break even, the program would need to avert high-risk behaviours in only 1.3% (14/1,104) of participants. This indicative evaluation suggests that the BBBS program represents excellent 'value for money'.

Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Program: Issues and Results of Upscreening COTS Parts for NASA Flight Hardware

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandor, Mike; Agarwal, Shri; Villegas, Enrique

2000-01-01

This paper presents The Commercial Off-The-Shelf Program (COTS). The topics of discussion are: 1) Introduction of COTS; 2) MARS01 Program/Requirements; 3) MARS01 COTS Screening Flow; 4) Test Results-Electrical, C-Sam, Burn-In; 5) Value Added Analysis (Risk Reduction); 6) Value Added Analysis (Cost); 7) Impact of COTS ++ Screening; and 8) Summary. This paper is presented in viewgraph form.

Risk-Informed Decision Making: Application to Technology Development Alternative Selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher

2010-01-01

NASA NPR 8000.4A, Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements, defines risk management in terms of two complementary processes: Risk-informed Decision Making (RIDM) and Continuous Risk Management (CRM). The RIDM process is used to inform decision making by emphasizing proper use of risk analysis to make decisions that impact all mission execution domains (e.g., safety, technical, cost, and schedule) for program/projects and mission support organizations. The RIDM process supports the selection of an alternative prior to program commitment. The CRM process is used to manage risk associated with the implementation of the selected alternative. The two processes work together to foster proactive risk management at NASA. The Office of Safety and Mission Assurance at NASA Headquarters has developed a technical handbook to provide guidance for implementing the RIDM process in the context of NASA risk management and systems engineering. This paper summarizes the key concepts and procedures of the RIDM process as presented in the handbook, and also illustrates how the RIDM process can be applied to the selection of technology investments as NASA's new technology development programs are initiated.

The Role and Quality of Software Safety in the NASA Constellation Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Layman, Lucas; Basili, Victor R.; Zelkowitz, Marvin V.

2010-01-01

In this study, we examine software safety risk in the early design phase of the NASA Constellation spaceflight program. Obtaining an accurate, program-wide picture of software safety risk is difficult across multiple, independently-developing systems. We leverage one source of safety information, hazard analysis, to provide NASA quality assurance managers with information regarding the ongoing state of software safety across the program. The goal of this research is two-fold: 1) to quantify the relative importance of software with respect to system safety; and 2) to quantify the level of risk presented by software in the hazard analysis. We examined 154 hazard reports created during the preliminary design phase of three major flight hardware systems within the Constellation program. To quantify the importance of software, we collected metrics based on the number of software-related causes and controls of hazardous conditions. To quantify the level of risk presented by software, we created a metric scheme to measure the specificity of these software causes. We found that from 49-70% of hazardous conditions in the three systems could be caused by software or software was involved in the prevention of the hazardous condition. We also found that 12-17% of the 2013 hazard causes involved software, and that 23-29% of all causes had a software control. Furthermore, 10-12% of all controls were software-based. There is potential for inaccuracy in these counts, however, as software causes are not consistently scoped, and the presence of software in a cause or control is not always clear. The application of our software specificity metrics also identified risks in the hazard reporting process. In particular, we found a number of traceability risks in the hazard reports may impede verification of software and system safety.

Risk Management for Weapon Systems Acquisition: A Decision Support System

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-02-28

includes the program evaluation and review technique (PERT) for network analysis, the PMRM for quantifying risk , an optimization package for generating...Despite the inclusion of uncertainty in time, PERT can at best be considered as a tool for quantifying risk with regard to the time element only. Moreover

The Efficacy of an American Indian Culturally-Based Risk Prevention Program for Upper Elementary School Youth Residing on the Northern Plains Reservations.

PubMed

Usera, John J

2017-04-01

Culturally-based risk behavior prevention programs for American Indian elementary school children are sparse. Thus a group of American Indian educators collaborated in the creation of a program that helps children make healthy decisions based on their cultural and traditional value system. In this paper the effectiveness of Lakota Circles of Hope (LCH), an elementary school culturally-based prevention program was studied and evaluated. Three cohorts of fourth and fifth graders participated in a mixed methods quasi-experimental evaluative research design that included focus groups and surveys prior to and following the intervention. Five research questions regarding the program's impact on students' self-esteem and self-efficacy, Lakota identity, communication, conflict resolution and risk behaviors were addressed in this study. Participants were compared to non-participants in three American Indian reservation school sites. Educators completed a survey to record their observations and feedback regarding the implementation of the program within their respective school sites. The study provides preliminary evidence that, when delivered with fidelity, LCH contributes to statistically significant changes in risk behaviors, Lakota identity, respect for others, and adult and parent communication. A two-way multivariate analysis of variance with post hoc analysis of data collected from the LCH participants (N = 1392) were used to substantiate a significant increase in respect for others and a decrease in risk behaviors which included alcohol, tobacco, and substance use at the 0.10 alpha level. Significant positive improvements in parent and adult communication and an increased Lakota identity at the 0.01 alpha level were obtained. There were no significant differences in self-esteem and conflict resolution from pre to post intervention and in comparison with non LCH participating students.

Quality of pancreatic transplant program assessment using a risk-adjusted cumulative sum chart: experience from a single, small center.

PubMed

Grochowiecki, T; Jakimowicz, T; Grabowska-Derlatka, L; Szmidt, J

2014-10-01

The high rate of complication after pancreas transplantation not only had an impact on recipient quality of life and survival but also had significant financial implications. Thus, monitoring transplant center performance was crucial to indentifying changes in clinical practice that result in quality deterioration. To evaluate retrospectively the quality of the single, small pancreatic transplant program and to establish prospective monitoring of the center using risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM). From 1988 to 2014, 119 simultaneous pancreas and the kidney transplantations (SPKTx) were performed. The program was divided into 3 eras, based on surgical technique and immunosuppression. Analyses of the 15 fatal outcomes due to complication from pancreatic graft were performed. The risk model was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis based on retrospective data of 112 SPKTx recipients. The risk-adjusted 1-sided CUSUM chart was plotted for retrospective and prospective events. The upper control limit was set to 2. There were 2 main causes of death: multiorgan failure (73.3%; 11/15) and septic hemorrhage (26.7%; 4/15). Quality analysis using the CUSUM chart revealed that the process was not homogeneous; however, no significant signal of program deterioration was obtained and the performance of the whole program was within the settled control limit. For a single pancreatic transplant center. The risk-adjusted CUSUM chart was a useful tool for quality program assessment. It could support decision making during traditional surgical morbidity and mortality conferences. For small transplant centers, increasing the sensitivity of the CUSUM method by lowering the upper control limit should be considered. However, an individual assessment approach of the for particular centers is recommended.

Engineering Management Capstone Project EM 697: Compare and Contrast Risk Management Implementation at NASA and the US Army

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brothers, Mary Ann; Safie, Fayssal M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

NASA at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the U.S. Army at Redstone Arsenal were analyzed to determine whether they were successful in implementing their risk management program. Risk management implementation surveys were distributed to aid in this analysis. The scope is limited to NASA S&MA (Safety and Mission Assurance) at MSFC, including applicable support contractors, and the US Army Engineering Directorate, including applicable contractors, located at Redstone Arsenal. NASA has moderately higher risk management implementation survey scores than the Army. Accordingly, the implementation of the risk management program at NASA is considered good while only two of five of the survey categories indicated that the risk management implementation is good at the Army.

Electronic Packaging for Space Applications Workshop 1999

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandor, Mike; Agarwal, Shri; Villegas, Enrique

1999-01-01

This paper presents viewgraphs on the Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Program. The topics include: 1) Advocacy for COTS; 2) MARS01 Program/Requirements; 3) MARS01 COTS Screening Flow; 4) Test Results-Electrical, C-Sam, Burn-In; 5) Value Added Analysis (Risk Reduction); 6) Value Added Analysis (Cost); 7) Impact of COTS ++ Screening and 8) Summary.

Capacity of scour-damaged bridges, part 2 : Integrated Analysis Program (IAP) - a program for the analysis of lateral performance of pile-supported structures under scour conditions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Scour is the removal of soils in the vicinity of bridge foundations, resulting in a reduced capacity of the foundations, which can increase the risk of bridge : failure. To minimize bridge failure, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has establ...

AN INTER-AGENCY APPROACH FOR DETERMINING REGIONAL LAND COVER AND SPECIES HABITAT CONSERVATION STATUS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST: THE SOUTHWEST REGIONAL GAP ANALYSIS PROJECT

EPA Science Inventory

The Gap Analysis Program (GAP) is a national inter-agency program that maps the distribution of plant communities and selected animal species and compares these distributions with land stewardship to identify biotic elements at potential risk of endangerment. GAP uses remote sens...

Capacity of scour-damaged bridges, part 2 : Integrated Analysis Program (IAP) - a program for the analysis of lateral performance of pile-supported structures under scour conditions, [technical summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Scour is the removal of soils in the vicinity of bridge foundations, resulting in a reduced capacity of the foundations, which can increase the risk of bridge failure. To minimize bridge failure, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has establis...

Analysis of Student Misbehavior Patterns: Corrective Guidelines for Administrators and Teachers in Alternative Education Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dix, Jerry Edward; Karr-Kidwell, PJ

This paper presents an analysis of adolescent violent behavior in schools. The paper offers an overview that includes student violence and discipline issues, school law, special services for at-risk students, and programs to enhance the opportunities for successful interventions. The paper is also a vehicle for a new discipline-management…

Impacts of abstinence education on teen sexual activity, risk of pregnancy, and risk of sexually transmitted diseases.

PubMed

Trenholm, Christopher; Devaney, Barbara; Fortson, Kenneth; Clark, Melissa; Bridgespan, Lisa Quay; Wheeler, Justin

2008-01-01

This paper examines the impacts of four abstinence-only education programs on adolescent sexual activity and risks of pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Based on an experimental design, the impact analysis uses survey data collected in 2005 and early 2006 from more than 2,000 teens who had been randomly assigned to either a program group that was eligible to participate in one of the four programs or a control group that was not. The findings show no significant impact on teen sexual activity, no differences in rates of unprotected sex, and some impacts on knowledge of STDs and perceived effectiveness of condoms and birth control pills

78 FR 79658 - Okanagan Specialty Fruits, Inc.; Availability of Plant Pest Risk Assessment and Environmental...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-31

... available on the APHIS Web site at http://www.aphis.usda.gov/biotechnology/petitions_table_pending.shtml..., Environmental Risk Analysis Programs, Biotechnology Regulatory Services, APHIS, 4700 River Road Unit 147...

"Underprepared" and "At-Risk": Disrupting Deficit Discourses in Undergraduate STEM Recruitment and Retention Programming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castro, Erin L.

2014-01-01

This paper highlights deficit-oriented descriptions of underrepresented undergraduate students in STEM intervention programs at large public 4-year universities. Drawing from interview data and using critical discourse analysis, the author identifies how deficit discourses are mobilized among program staff and argues that such descriptions…

32 CFR Appendix J to Part 154 - ADP Position Categories and Criteria for Designating Positions

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., and implementation of a computer security program; major responsibility for the direction, planning... agency computer security programs, and also including direction and control of risk analysis and/or... OF DEFENSE SECURITY DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE PERSONNEL SECURITY PROGRAM REGULATION Pt. 154, App. J...

32 CFR Appendix J to Part 154 - ADP Position Categories and Criteria for Designating Positions

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., and implementation of a computer security program; major responsibility for the direction, planning... agency computer security programs, and also including direction and control of risk analysis and/or... OF DEFENSE SECURITY DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE PERSONNEL SECURITY PROGRAM REGULATION Pt. 154, App. J...

32 CFR Appendix J to Part 154 - ADP Position Categories and Criteria for Designating Positions

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., and implementation of a computer security program; major responsibility for the direction, planning... agency computer security programs, and also including direction and control of risk analysis and/or... OF DEFENSE SECURITY DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE PERSONNEL SECURITY PROGRAM REGULATION Pt. 154, App. J...

32 CFR Appendix J to Part 154 - ADP Position Categories and Criteria for Designating Positions

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., and implementation of a computer security program; major responsibility for the direction, planning... agency computer security programs, and also including direction and control of risk analysis and/or... OF DEFENSE SECURITY DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE PERSONNEL SECURITY PROGRAM REGULATION Pt. 154, App. J...

32 CFR Appendix J to Part 154 - ADP Position Categories and Criteria for Designating Positions

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., and implementation of a computer security program; major responsibility for the direction, planning... agency computer security programs, and also including direction and control of risk analysis and/or... OF DEFENSE SECURITY DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE PERSONNEL SECURITY PROGRAM REGULATION Pt. 154, App. J...

Field modeling of heat transfer in atrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedryshkin, Oleg; Gravit, Marina; Bushuev, Nikolay

2017-10-01

The results of calculating fire risk are an important element in the system of modern fire safety assessment. The article reviews the work on the mathematical modeling of fire in the room. A comparison of different calculation models in the programs of fire risk assessment and fire modeling was performed. The results of full-scale fire tests and fire modeling in the FDS program are presented. The analysis of empirical and theoretical data on fire modeling is made, a conclusion is made about the modeling accuracy in the FDS program.

Impact of programming strategies aimed at reducing nonessential implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapies on mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tan, Vern Hsen; Wilton, Stephen B; Kuriachan, Vikas; Sumner, Glen L; Exner, Derek V

2014-02-01

Patients who receive implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapies are at higher risk of death versus those who do not. Programmed settings to reduce nonessential implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapies (therapy reduction programming) have been developed but may have adverse effects. This systematic review and meta-analysis assessed the relationship between therapy reduction programming with the risks of death from any cause, implantable cardioverter defibrillator shocks, and syncope. MEDLINE, EMBASE, and clinicaltrials.gov databases were searched to identify relevant studies. Those that followed patients for ≥6 months and reported mortality were included. Six met the inclusion criteria; 4 randomized (Comparison of Empiric to Physician-Tailored Programming of ICDs [EMPIRIC], Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial-Reduce Inappropriate Therapy [MADIT-RIT], Avoid Delivering Therapies for Non-sustained Arrhythmias in ICD Patients III [ADVANCE III], and Programming Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillators in Patients with Primary Prevention Indication to Prolong Time to First Shock [PROVIDE]) and 2 prospective studies (Role of Long Detection Window Programming in Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction, Non-ischemic Etiology in Primary Prevention Treated with a Biventricular ICD [RELEVANT] and Primary Prevention Parameters Evaluation [PREPARE]). These 6 studies included 7687 (3598 conventional and 4089 therapy reduction programming) patients. Most (77%) participants were men, had a history of ischemic heart disease (56%), and were prescribed β-blockers (84%). Therapy reduction programming was associated with a 30% relative reduction in mortality (95% confidence interval, 16%-41%; P<0.001). No significant heterogeneity among studies was observed (P=0.6). A similar 26% reduction in mortality was observed when only the 4 randomized trials were included (95% confidence interval, 11%-40%; P=0.002). These results were not significantly altered after adjustment for baseline characteristics. No significant difference in the risk of syncope was observed with conventional versus therapy reduction programming (P=0.5). Therapy reduction programming results in a large, significant, and consistent reduction in mortality, with no apparent increase in the risk of syncope.

Software analysis handbook: Software complexity analysis and software reliability estimation and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Alice T.; Gunn, Todd; Pham, Tuan; Ricaldi, Ron

1994-01-01

This handbook documents the three software analysis processes the Space Station Software Analysis team uses to assess space station software, including their backgrounds, theories, tools, and analysis procedures. Potential applications of these analysis results are also presented. The first section describes how software complexity analysis provides quantitative information on code, such as code structure and risk areas, throughout the software life cycle. Software complexity analysis allows an analyst to understand the software structure, identify critical software components, assess risk areas within a software system, identify testing deficiencies, and recommend program improvements. Performing this type of analysis during the early design phases of software development can positively affect the process, and may prevent later, much larger, difficulties. The second section describes how software reliability estimation and prediction analysis, or software reliability, provides a quantitative means to measure the probability of failure-free operation of a computer program, and describes the two tools used by JSC to determine failure rates and design tradeoffs between reliability, costs, performance, and schedule.

Interim reliability evaluation program, Browns Ferry 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1981-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis techniques, i.e., event tree and fault tree analysis, were utilized to provide a risk assessment of the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1. Browns Ferry 1 is a General Electric boiling water reactor of the BWR 4 product line with a Mark 1 (drywell and torus) containment. Within the guidelines of the IREP Procedure and Schedule Guide, dominant accident sequences that contribute to public health and safety risks were identified and grouped according to release categories.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glantz, C.S.; DiMassa, F.V.; Pelto, P.J.

The Western Area Power Administration (Western) views environmental protection and compliance as a top priority as it manages the construction, operation, and maintenance of its vast network of transmission lines, substations, and other facilities. A recent Department of Energy audit of Western`s environmental management activities recommends that Western adopt a formal environmental risk program. To accomplish this goal, Western, in conjunction with Pacific Northwest Laboratory, is in the process of developing a centrally coordinated environmental risk program. This report presents the results of this design effort, and indicates the direction in which Western`s environmental risk program is heading. Western`s environmentalmore » risk program will consist of three main components: risk communication, risk assessment, and risk management/decision making. Risk communication is defined as an exchange of information on the potential for threats to human health, public safety, or the environment. This information exchange provides a mechanism for public involvement, and also for the participation in the risk assessment and management process by diverse groups or offices within Western. The objective of risk assessment is to evaluate and rank the relative magnitude of risks associated with specific environmental issues that are facing Western. The evaluation and ranking is based on the best available scientific information and judgment and serves as input to the risk management process. Risk management takes risk information and combines it with relevant non-risk factors (e.g., legal mandates, public opinion, costs) to generate risk management options. A risk management tool, such as decision analysis, can be used to help make risk management choices.« less

Safer Liquid Natural Gas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

After the disaster of Staten Island in 1973 where 40 people were killed repairing a liquid natural gas storage tank, the New York Fire Commissioner requested NASA's help in drawing up a comprehensive plan to cover the design, construction, and operation of liquid natural gas facilities. Two programs are underway. The first transfers comprehensive risk management techniques and procedures which take the form of an instruction document that includes determining liquid-gas risks through engineering analysis and tests, controlling these risks by setting up redundant fail safe techniques, and establishing criteria calling for decisions that eliminate or accept certain risks. The second program prepares a liquid gas safety manual (the first of its kind).

Recruitment Methods and Show Rates to a Prostate Cancer Early Detection Program for High-Risk Men: A Comprehensive Analysis

PubMed Central

Giri, Veda N.; Coups, Elliot J.; Ruth, Karen; Goplerud, Julia; Raysor, Susan; Kim, Taylor Y.; Bagden, Loretta; Mastalski, Kathleen; Zakrzewski, Debra; Leimkuhler, Suzanne; Watkins-Bruner, Deborah

2009-01-01

Purpose Men with a family history (FH) of prostate cancer (PCA) and African American (AA) men are at higher risk for PCA. Recruitment and retention of these high-risk men into early detection programs has been challenging. We report a comprehensive analysis on recruitment methods, show rates, and participant factors from the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program (PRAP), which is a prospective, longitudinal PCA screening study. Materials and Methods Men 35–69 years are eligible if they have a FH of PCA, are AA, or have a BRCA1/2 mutation. Recruitment methods were analyzed with respect to participant demographics and show to the first PRAP appointment using standard statistical methods Results Out of 707 men recruited, 64.9% showed to the initial PRAP appointment. More individuals were recruited via radio than from referral or other methods (χ2 = 298.13, p < .0001). Men recruited via radio were more likely to be AA (p<0.001), less educated (p=0.003), not married or partnered (p=0.007), and have no FH of PCA (p<0.001). Men recruited via referrals had higher incomes (p=0.007). Men recruited via referral were more likely to attend their initial PRAP visit than those recruited by radio or other methods (χ2 = 27.08, p < .0001). Conclusions This comprehensive analysis finds that radio leads to higher recruitment of AA men with lower socioeconomic status. However, these are the high-risk men that have lower show rates for PCA screening. Targeted motivational measures need to be studied to improve show rates for PCA risk assessment for these high-risk men. PMID:19758657

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Shuttle Risk Progression: Use of the Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to Show Reliability Growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlin, Teri L.

2011-01-01

It is important to the Space Shuttle Program (SSP), as well as future manned spaceflight programs, to understand the early mission risk and progression of risk as the program gains insights into the integrated vehicle through flight. The risk progression is important to the SSP as part of the documentation of lessons learned. The risk progression is important to future programs to understand reliability growth and the first flight risk. This analysis uses the knowledge gained from 30 years of operational flights and the current Shuttle PRA to calculate the risk of Loss of Crew and Vehicle (LOCV) at significant milestones beginning with the first flight. Key flights were evaluated based upon historical events and significant re-designs. The results indicated that the Shuttle risk tends to follow a step function as opposed to following a traditional reliability growth pattern where risk exponentially improves with each flight. In addition, it shows that risk can increase due to trading safety margin for increased performance or due to external events. Due to the risk drivers not being addressed, the risk did not improve appreciably during the first 25 flights. It was only after significant events occurred such as Challenger and Columbia, where the risk drivers were apparent, that risk was significantly improved. In addition, this paper will show that the SSP has reduced the risk of LOCV by almost an order of magnitude. It is easy to look back afte r 30 years and point to risks that are now obvious, however; the key is to use this knowledge to benefit other programs which are in their infancy stages. One lesson learned from the SSP is understanding risk drivers are essential in order to considerably reduce risk. This will enable the new program to focus time and resources on identifying and reducing the significant risks. A comprehensive PRA, similar to that of the Shuttle PRA, is an effective tool quantifying risk drivers if support from all of the stakeholders is given.

Human health risk constrained naphthalene-contaminated groundwater remediation management through an improved credibility method.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing; Chen, Yizhong

2017-07-01

In this study, a human health risk constrained groundwater remediation management program based on the improved credibility is developed for naphthalene contamination. The program integrates simulation, multivariate regression analysis, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis, and nonlinear optimization into a general framework. The improved credibility-based optimization model for groundwater remediation management with consideration of human health risk (ICOM-HHR) is capable of not only effectively addressing parameter uncertainties and risk-exceeding possibility in human health risk but also providing a credibility level that indicates the satisfaction of the optimal groundwater remediation strategies with multiple contributions of possibility and necessity. The capabilities and effectiveness of ICOM-HHR are illustrated through a real-world case study in Anhui Province, China. Results indicate that the ICOM-HHR would generate double remediation cost yet reduce approximately 10 times of the naphthalene concentrations at monitoring wells, i.e., mostly less than 1 μg/L, which implies that the ICOM-HHR usually results in better environmental and health risk benefits. And it is acceptable to obtain a better environmental quality and a lower health risk level with sacrificing a certain economic benefit.

Topical Backgrounder: Evaluating Chemical Hazards in the Community: Using RMP's Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Part of a May 1999 series on the Risk Management Program Rule and issues related to chemical emergency management. Explains hazard versus risk, worst-case and alternative release scenarios, flammable endpoints and toxic endpoints.

Ill-informed consent? A content analysis of physical risk disclosure in school-based HPV vaccine programs.

PubMed

Steenbeek, Audrey; Macdonald, Noni; Downie, Jocelyn; Appleton, Mary; Baylis, Françoise

2012-01-01

This study examines the accuracy, completeness, and consistency of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine related physical risks disclosed in documents available to parents, legal guardians, and girls in Canadian jurisdictions with school-based HPV vaccine programs. We conducted an online search for program related HPV vaccine risk/benefit documents for all 13 Canadian jurisdictions between July 2008 and May 2009 including follow-up by e-mail and telephone requests for relevant documents from the respective Ministries or Departments of Health. The physical risks listed in the documents were compared across jurisdictions and against documents prepared by the vaccine manufacturer (Merck Frosst Canada), the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI), the Society of Obstetricians and Gynecologists of Canada (SOGC), and a 2007 article in Maclean's Magazine. No jurisdiction provided the same list of vaccine related physical risks as any other jurisdiction. Major discrepancies were identified. Inaccurate, incomplete, and inconsistent information can threaten the validity of consent/authorization and potentially undermine trust in the vaccine program and the vaccine itself. Efforts are needed to improve the quality, clarity, and standardization of the content of written documents used in school-based HPV vaccine programs across Canada. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Stingray Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis: WEC Risk Registers

DOE Data Explorer

Ken Rhinefrank

2016-07-25

Analysis method to systematically identify all potential failure modes and their effects on the Stingray WEC system. This analysis is incorporated early in the development cycle such that the mitigation of the identified failure modes can be achieved cost effectively and efficiently. The FMECA can begin once there is enough detail to functions and failure modes of a given system, and its interfaces with other systems. The FMECA occurs coincidently with the design process and is an iterative process which allows for design changes to overcome deficiencies in the analysis.Risk Registers for major subsystems completed according to the methodology described in "Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis Risk Reduction Program Plan.pdf" document below, in compliance with the DOE Risk Management Framework developed by NREL.

Interim reliability-evaluation program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Appendix B - system descriptions and fault trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

This report describes a risk study of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. The study is one of four such studies sponsored by the NRC Office of Research, Division of Risk Assessment, as part of its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP), Phase II. This report is contained in four volumes: a main report and three appendixes. Appendix B provides a description of Browns Ferry, Unit 1, plant systems and the failure evaluation of those systems as they apply to accidents at Browns Ferry. Information is presented concerning front-line system fault analysis; support system fault analysis; human error models andmore » probabilities; and generic control circuit analyses.« less

PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

Analysis of Risk Management in Adapted Physical Education Textbooks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Kelle L.; Donovan, Jacqueline B.; Berg, Dominck A.

2016-01-01

Physical education teacher education (PETE) programs vary on how the topics of safe teaching and risk management are addressed. Common practices to cover such issues include requiring textbooks, lesson planning, peer teaching, videotaping, reflecting, and reading case law analyses. We used a mixed methods design to examine how risk management is…

Registry-based Diabetes Risk Detection Schema for the Systematic Identification of Patients at Risk for Diabetes in West Virginia Primary Care Centers

PubMed Central

Baus, Adam; Wood, Gina; Pollard, Cecil; Summerfield, Belinda; White, Emma

2013-01-01

Approximately 466,000 West Virginians, or about 25 percent of the state population, have prediabetes and are at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes. Appropriate lifestyle intervention can prevent or delay the onset of type 2 diabetes if individuals at risk are identified and treated early. The West Virginia Diabetes Prevention and Control Program and the West Virginia University Office of Health Services Research are developing a systematic approach to diabetes prevention within primary care. This study aims to demonstrate the viability of patient registry software for the analysis of disparate electronic health record (EHR) data sets and standardized identification of at-risk patients for early detection and intervention. Preliminary analysis revealed that of 94,283 patients without a documented diagnosis of diabetes or prediabetes, 10,673 (11.3 percent) meet one or more of the risk criteria. This study indicates that EHR data can be repurposed into an actionable registry for prevention. This model supports meaningful use of EHRs, the Patient-Centered Medical Home program, and improved care through enhanced data management. PMID:24159274

Fracture risk assessment: improved evaluation of vertebral integrity among metastatic cancer patients to aid in surgical decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustine, Kurt E.; Camp, Jon J.; Holmes, David R.; Huddleston, Paul M.; Lu, Lichun; Yaszemski, Michael J.; Robb, Richard A.

2012-03-01

Failure of the spine's structural integrity from metastatic disease can lead to both pain and neurologic deficit. Fractures that require treatment occur in over 30% of bony metastases. Our objective is to use computed tomography (CT) in conjunction with analytic techniques that have been previously developed to predict fracture risk in cancer patients with metastatic disease to the spine. Current clinical practice for cancer patients with spine metastasis often requires an empirical decision regarding spinal reconstructive surgery. Early image-based software systems used for CT analysis are time consuming and poorly suited for clinical application. The Biomedical Image Resource (BIR) at Mayo Clinic, Rochester has developed an image analysis computer program that calculates from CT scans, the residual load-bearing capacity in a vertebra with metastatic cancer. The Spine Cancer Assessment (SCA) program is built on a platform designed for clinical practice, with a workflow format that allows for rapid selection of patient CT exams, followed by guided image analysis tasks, resulting in a fracture risk report. The analysis features allow the surgeon to quickly isolate a single vertebra and obtain an immediate pre-surgical multiple parallel section composite beam fracture risk analysis based on algorithms developed at Mayo Clinic. The analysis software is undergoing clinical validation studies. We expect this approach will facilitate patient management and utilization of reliable guidelines for selecting among various treatment option based on fracture risk.

Risk based requirements for long term stewardship: A proof-of-principle analysis of an analytic method tested on selected Hanford locations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jarvis, T.T.; Andrews, W.B.; Buck, J.W.

1998-03-01

Since 1989, the Department of Energy`s (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program has managed the environmental legacy of US nuclear weapons production, research and testing at 137 facilities in 31 states and one US territory. The EM program has conducted several studies on the public risks posed by contaminated sites at these facilities. In Risks and the Risk Debate [DOE, 1995a], the Department analyzed the risks at sites before, during, and after remediation work by the EM program. The results indicated that aside from a few urgent risks, most hazards present little inherent risk because physical and active site management controlsmore » limit both the releases of site contaminants, and public access to these hazards. Without these controls, these sites would pose greater risks to the public. Past risk reports, however, provided little information about post-cleanup risk, primarily because of uncertainty about future site uses and site characteristics at the end of planned cleanup activities. This is of concern because in many cases current cleanup technologies, and remedies, will last a shorter period of time than the waste itself and the resulting contamination will remain hazardous.« less

Evaluation of a Voluntary Worksite Weight Loss Program on Metabolic Syndrome.

PubMed

Earnest, Conrad P; Church, Timothy S

2015-11-01

Health care costs increase with the presence of metabolic syndrome and present a significant burden to companies throughout the world. Identifying effective behavioral programs within the workplace can reduce health care costs. We examined the effect of a voluntary worksite program on weight loss and metabolic syndrome. Participants (N = 3880, from 93 companies) volunteered within their workplaces to participate in a 10-week weight loss program (Naturally Slim) focused on self-monitoring, eating behaviors, understanding hunger signals, reducing refined carbohydrate and sugar intake, and increasing protein intake to 25%-30%. Primary outcomes included weight loss and metabolic syndrome prevalence. Secondary analyses examined the individual components of metabolic syndrome and a categorical analysis within each World Health Organization body mass index category. Overall, women and men lost 9.4 (-4.8%) and 13.2 pounds (-5.8%), respectively. Each metabolic risk factor for both genders had a significant improvement but men exhibited the largest relative improvement for each risk factor. At baseline, 43% of women and 52% of men presented with metabolic syndrome, which was reduced to 30% in women and 26% in men (P < 0.001 for each) at the conclusion of the program. Secondary analysis demonstrated that individuals with greater baseline levels of metabolic dysfunction had larger metabolic improvements, similar benefits to risk factors across baseline body mass index categories, and the greater the weight loss, the greater the metabolic benefit. Our results demonstrate that a worksite program targeting core behavioral skills associated with weight loss is an effective strategy to reduce weight and improve the components of metabolic syndrome amongst at-risk employees.

Air Force Project Risk Management - The Impact of Inconsistent Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-15

grave development of a project. The Challenger disaster drove rigor in process based risk analysis which began to emerge formally in the early 1990’s...is a natural tendency to be aggressive with assumptions early in a program to make the program appear attractive” (p. 30). The literature dovetails...and having an unwanted pregnancy (Burger & Burns, 1988). Investigations revealed that the siting of the Fukushima Daiichi reactors and a 5.7

A Value Measure for Public-Sector Enterprise Risk Management: A TSA Case Study.

PubMed

Fletcher, Kenneth C; Abbas, Ali E

2018-05-01

This article presents a public value measure that can be used to aid executives in the public sector to better assess policy decisions and maximize value to the American people. Using Transportation Security Administration (TSA) programs as an example, we first identify the basic components of public value. We then propose a public value account to quantify the outcomes of various risk scenarios, and we determine the certain equivalent of several important TSA programs. We illustrate how this proposed measure can quantify the effects of two main challenges that government organizations face when conducting enterprise risk management: (1) short-term versus long-term incentives and (2) avoiding potential negative consequences even if they occur with low probability. Finally, we illustrate how this measure enables the use of various tools from decision analysis to be applied in government settings, such as stochastic dominance arguments and certain equivalent calculations. Regarding the TSA case study, our analysis demonstrates the value of continued expansion of the TSA trusted traveler initiative and increasing the background vetting for passengers who are afforded expedited security screening. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk Analysis in Support of the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program. Volume 1. Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-17

Analysis of Event Probability A-14 A.4.2 Analysis of Event Consequence A-14 A.4.2.1 Agent Release to Atmosphere A-14 A.4.2.2 Toxic P-lume Size A-16 A...Disposal Program (CSDP), which comprises several alternatives for carrying out the disposal effort (U.S. Army Toxic and Hazardous Materials Agency, 1986...or unavoidable accident or event could occur that would expose a nearby civilian population to these toxic chemicals. Such events could occur even

Managing Large Scale Project Analysis Teams through a Web Accessible Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Neil, Daniel A.

2008-01-01

Large scale space programs analyze thousands of requirements while mitigating safety, performance, schedule, and cost risks. These efforts involve a variety of roles with interdependent use cases and goals. For example, study managers and facilitators identify ground-rules and assumptions for a collection of studies required for a program or project milestone. Task leaders derive product requirements from the ground rules and assumptions and describe activities to produce needed analytical products. Disciplined specialists produce the specified products and load results into a file management system. Organizational and project managers provide the personnel and funds to conduct the tasks. Each role has responsibilities to establish information linkages and provide status reports to management. Projects conduct design and analysis cycles to refine designs to meet the requirements and implement risk mitigation plans. At the program level, integrated design and analysis cycles studies are conducted to eliminate every 'to-be-determined' and develop plans to mitigate every risk. At the agency level, strategic studies analyze different approaches to exploration architectures and campaigns. This paper describes a web-accessible database developed by NASA to coordinate and manage tasks at three organizational levels. Other topics in this paper cover integration technologies and techniques for process modeling and enterprise architectures.

Analysis of KC-46 Live-Fire Risk Mitigation Program Testing

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

the use of real hardware such as electrohydraulic actuators , electrical units, and converter regulators (Andrus, 2010). The only feasible method for...worked with the MQ-9 as a test engineer and analyst for the programs IOT &E, RQ-4 as lead engineer and program lead for the block 3 and the block 4

Evaluation of an Innovative Post-Arrest Diversion Program: 12-Month Recidivism Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dembo, Richard; Walters, Wansley; Wareham, Jennifer; Burgos, Catherimarty; Schmeidler, James; Hoge, Robert; Underwood, Lee

2008-01-01

We report the results of an evaluation study of a diversion program, operated by the Miami-Dade County Juvenile Assessment Center in Florida. The Post-Arrest Diversion (PAD) program represents an innovative approach to treatment and intervention within the juvenile justice system that utilizes standardized psychosocial risks and needs assessment…

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

School-Based Violence Prevention Programs: Systematic Review of Secondary Prevention Trials.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mytton, Julie A.; DiGuiseppi, Carolyn; Gough, David A.; Taylor, Rod S.; Logan, Stuart

2002-01-01

Conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled secondary prevention trials to explore the effects of school-based violence prevention programs on aggressive and violent behavior in children at high risk for violence. Results indicated that such programs produced modest reductions in aggressive and violent behaviors in…

Evaluation of the clinical implementation of a large-scale online e-learning program on venous blood specimen collection guideline practices.

PubMed

Willman, Britta; Grankvist, Kjell; Bölenius, Karin

2018-05-11

When performed erroneously, the venous blood specimen collection (VBSC) practice steps patient identification, test request management and test tube labeling are at high risk to jeopardize patient safety. VBSC educational programs with the intention to minimize risk of harm to patients are therefore needed. In this study, we evaluate the efficiency of a large-scale online e-learning program on personnel's adherence to VBSC practices and their experience of the e-learning program. An interprofessional team transformed an implemented traditional VBSC education program to an online e-learning program developed to stimulate reflection with focus on the high-risk practice steps. We used questionnaires to evaluate the effect of the e-learning program on personnel's self-reported adherence to VBSC practices compared to questionnaire surveys before and after introduction of the traditional education program. We used content analysis to evaluate the participants free text experience of the VBSC e-learning program. Adherence to the VBSC guideline high-risk practice steps generally increased following the implementation of a traditional educational program followed by an e-learning program. We however found a negative trend over years regarding participation rates and the practice to always send/sign the request form following the introduction of an electronic request system. The participants were in general content with the VBSC e-learning program. Properly designed e-learning programs on VBSC practices supersedes traditional educational programs in usefulness and functionality. Inclusion of questionnaires in the e-learning program is necessary for follow-up of VBSC participant's practices and educational program efficiency.

Options and Risk for Qualification of Electric Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Michelle; Daniel, Charles; Cook, Steve (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Electric propulsion vehicle systems envelop a wide range of propulsion alternatives including solar and nuclear, which present unique circumstances for qualification. This paper will address the alternatives for qualification of electric propulsion spacecraft systems. The approach taken will be to address the considerations for qualification at the various levels of systems definition. Additionally, for each level of qualification the system level risk implications will be developed. Also, the paper will explore the implications of analysis verses test for various levels of systems definition, while retaining the objectives of a verification program. The limitations of terrestrial testing will be explored along with the risk and implications of orbital demonstration testing. The paper will seek to develop a template for structuring of a verification program based on cost, risk and value return. A successful verification program should establish controls and define objectives of the verification compliance program. Finally the paper will seek to address the political and programmatic factors, which may impact options for system verification.

Implementation of a patient safety program at a tertiary health system: A longitudinal analysis of interventions and serious safety events.

PubMed

Cropper, Douglas P; Harb, Nidal H; Said, Patricia A; Lemke, Jon H; Shammas, Nicolas W

2018-04-01

We hypothesize that implementation of a safety program based on high reliability organization principles will reduce serious safety events (SSE). The safety program focused on 7 essential elements: (a) safety rounding, (b) safety oversight teams, (c) safety huddles, (d) safety coaches, (e) good catches/safety heroes, (f) safety education, and (g) red rule. An educational curriculum was implemented focusing on changing high-risk behaviors and implementing critical safety policies. All unusual occurrences were captured in the Midas system and investigated by risk specialists, the safety officer, and the chief medical officer. A multidepartmental committee evaluated these events, and a root cause analysis (RCA) was performed. Events were tabulated and serious safety event (SSE) recorded and plotted over time. Safety success stories (SSSs) were also evaluated over time. A steady drop in SSEs was seen over 9 years. Also a rise in SSSs was evident, reflecting on staff engagement in the program. The parallel change in SSEs, SSSs, and the implementation of various safety interventions highly suggest that the program was successful in achieving its goals. A safety program based on high-reliability organization principles and made a core value of the institution can have a significant positive impact on reducing SSEs. © 2018 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

A simulation model of IT risk on program trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Bingying; Jiang, Wenbao; Luo, Guangxuan

2015-12-01

The biggest difficulty for Program trading IT risk measures lies in the loss of data, in view of this situation, the current scholars approach is collecting court, network and other public media such as all kinds of accident of IT both at home and abroad for data collection, and the loss of IT risk quantitative analysis based on this database. However, the IT risk loss database established by this method can only fuzzy reflect the real situation and not for real to make fundamental explanation. In this paper, based on the study of the concept and steps of the MC simulation, we use computer simulation method, by using the MC simulation method in the "Program trading simulation system" developed by team to simulate the real programming trading and get the IT risk loss of data through its IT failure experiment, at the end of the article, on the effectiveness of the experimental data is verified. In this way, better overcome the deficiency of the traditional research method and solves the problem of lack of IT risk data in quantitative research. More empirically provides researchers with a set of simulation method are used to study the ideas and the process template.

TU-AB-BRD-03: Fault Tree Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dunscombe, P.

2015-06-15

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before amore » failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to perform failure modes and effects analysis analysis for a given process Learn what fault trees are all about Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis. Dunscombe: Director, TreatSafely, LLC and Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences; Consultant to IAEA and Varian Thomadsen: President, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences Palta: Vice President of the Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences.« less

TU-AB-BRD-02: Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huq, M.

2015-06-15

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before amore » failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to perform failure modes and effects analysis analysis for a given process Learn what fault trees are all about Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis. Dunscombe: Director, TreatSafely, LLC and Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences; Consultant to IAEA and Varian Thomadsen: President, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences Palta: Vice President of the Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences.« less

Using cross-game behavioral markers for early identification of high-risk internet gamblers.

PubMed

Braverman, Julia; LaPlante, Debi A; Nelson, Sarah E; Shaffer, Howard J

2013-09-01

Using actual gambling behavior provides the opportunity to develop behavioral markers that operators can use to predict the development of gambling-related problems among their subscribers. Participants were 4,056 Internet gamblers who subscribed to the Internet betting service provider bwin.party. Half of this sample included multiple platform gamblers who were identified by bwin.party's Responsible Gambling (RG) program; the other half were controls randomly selected from those who had the same first deposit date. Using the daily aggregated Internet betting transactions for gamblers' first 31 calendar days of online betting activities at bwin.party, we employed a 2-step analytic strategy: (a) applying an exploratory chi-squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) decision tree method to identify characteristics that distinguished a subgroup of high-risk Internet gamblers from the rest of the sample, and (b) conducting a confirmatory analysis of those characteristics among an independent validation sample. This analysis identified two high-risk groups (i.e., groups in which 90% of the members were identified by bwin.party's RG program): Group 1 engaged in three or more gambling activities and evidenced high wager variability on casino-type games; Group 2 engaged in two different gambling activities and evidenced high variability for live action wagers. This analysis advances an ongoing research program to identify potentially problematic Internet gamblers during the earliest stages of their Internet gambling. Gambling providers and public policymakers can use these results to inform early intervention programs that target high-risk Internet gamblers. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

MO-E-9A-01: Risk Based Quality Management: TG100 In Action

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huq, M; Palta, J; Dunscombe, P

2014-06-15

One of the goals of quality management in radiation therapy is to gain high confidence that patients will receive the prescribed treatment correctly. To accomplish these goals professional societies such as the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) has published many quality assurance (QA), quality control (QC), and quality management (QM) guidance documents. In general, the recommendations provided in these documents have emphasized on performing device-specific QA at the expense of process flow and protection of the patient against catastrophic errors. Analyses of radiation therapy incidents find that they are most often caused by flaws in the overall therapymore » process, from initial consult through final treatment, than by isolated hardware or computer failures detectable by traditional physics QA. This challenge is shared by many intrinsically hazardous industries. Risk assessment tools and analysis techniques have been developed to define, identify, and eliminate known and/or potential failures, problems, or errors, from a system, process and/or service before they reach the customer. These include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and establishment of a quality management program that best avoids the faults and risks that have been identified in the overall process. These tools can be easily adapted to radiation therapy practices because of their simplicity and effectiveness to provide efficient ways to enhance the safety and quality of treatment processes. Task group 100 (TG100) of AAPM has developed a risk-based quality management program that uses these tools. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based QM program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process. Learn how to perform a FMEA analysis for a given process. Learn what Fault tree analysis is all about. Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, FMEA and FTA.« less

Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): An Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ling, Lisa

2014-01-01

For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.

A methodology for the evaluation of program cost and schedule risk for the SEASAT program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abram, P.; Myers, D.

1976-01-01

An interactive computerized project management software package (RISKNET) is designed to analyze the effect of the risk involved in each specific activity on the results of the total SEASAT-A program. Both the time and the cost of each distinct activity can be modeled with an uncertainty interval so as to provide the project manager with not only the expected time and cost for the completion of the total program, but also with the expected range of costs corresponding to any desired level of significance. The nature of the SEASAT-A program is described. The capabilities of RISKNET and the implementation plan of a RISKNET analysis for the development of SEASAT-A are presented.

Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauder, Stephen P.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration (ESI) Risk. An ESI risk may require visibility and risk handling by multiple organizations. The Integrated Risk Working Group (IRWG) is a small team of Risk experts that are responsible for collaborating and communicating best practices. In addition, the forum facilitates proper integration of risks across the Enterprise. The IRWG uses a Continuous Risk Management approach for facilitating the identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and controlling of ESI Risks. The ESD Division, Programs, and Integrated Task Teams identify ESI Risks. The IRWG maintains a set of metrics for understanding Enterprise Risk process and the overall Risk Posture. The team is also actively involved in the modeling of risk for Enterprise Performance Management. With the Enterprise being constrained in Schedule and Budget, and with significant technical complexity, the appropriate use of Risk Management techniques is crucial to the success of the Enterprise. The IRWG achieves this through the modified approach, providing a forum for collaboration on risks that cross boundaries between the separate entities.

Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) Iteration 3.2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.

2010-01-01

The Shuttle is a very reliable vehicle in comparison with other launch systems. Much of the risk posed by Shuttle operations is related to fundamental aspects of the spacecraft design and the environments in which it operates. It is unlikely that significant design improvements can be implemented to address these risks prior to the end of the Shuttle program. The model will continue to be used to identify possible emerging risk drivers and allow management to make risk-informed decisions on future missions. Potential uses of the SPRA in the future include: - Calculate risk impact of various mission contingencies (e.g. late inspection, crew rescue, etc.). - Assessing the risk impact of various trade studies (e.g. flow control valves). - Support risk analysis on mission specific events, such as in flight anomalies. - Serve as a guiding star and data source for future NASA programs.

Analysis of System-Wide Investment in the National Airspace System: A Portfolio Analytical Framework and an Example

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhadra, Dipasis; Morser, Frederick R.

2006-01-01

In this paper, the authors review the FAA s current program investments and lay out a preliminary analytical framework to undertake projects that may address some of the noted deficiencies. By drawing upon the well developed theories from corporate finance, an analytical framework is offered that can be used for choosing FAA s investments taking into account risk, expected returns and inherent dependencies across NAS programs. The framework can be expanded into taking multiple assets and realistic values for parameters in drawing an efficient risk-return frontier for the entire FAA investment programs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This document comprises Pacific Northwest National Laboratory`s report for Fiscal Year 1996 on research and development programs. The document contains 161 project summaries in 16 areas of research and development. The 16 areas of research and development reported on are: atmospheric sciences, biotechnology, chemical instrumentation and analysis, computer and information science, ecological science, electronics and sensors, health protection and dosimetry, hydrological and geologic sciences, marine sciences, materials science and engineering, molecular science, process science and engineering, risk and safety analysis, socio-technical systems analysis, statistics and applied mathematics, and thermal and energy systems. In addition, this report provides an overview ofmore » the research and development program, program management, program funding, and Fiscal Year 1997 projects.« less

Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baruffini, Mirko

2010-05-01

Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a system which integrates the procedures for a complete risk analysis in a Geographic Information System (GIS) toolbox, in order to be applied to our testbed, the Alps-crossing corridor of St. Gotthard. The simulation environment is developed within ArcObjects, the development platform for ArcGIS. The topic of ArcObjects usually emerges when users realize that programming ArcObjects can actually reduce the amount of repetitive work, streamline the workflow, and even produce functionalities that are not easily available in ArcGIS. We have adopted Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) for programming ArcObjects. Because VBA is already embedded within ArcMap and ArcCatalog, it is convenient for ArcGIS users to program ArcObjects in VBA. Our tool visualises the obtained data by an analysis of historical data (aerial photo imagery, field surveys, documentation of past events) or an environmental modeling (estimations of the area affected by a given event), and event such as route number and route position and thematic maps. As a result of this step the record appears in WebGIS. The user can select a specific area to overview previous hazards in the region. After performing the analysis, a double click on the visualised infrastructures opens the corresponding results. The constantly updated risk maps show all sites that require more protection against natural hazards. The final goal of our work is to offer a versatile tool for risk analysis which can be applied to different situations. Today our GIS application mainly centralises the documentation of natural hazards. Additionally the system offers information about natural hazard at the Gotthard line. It is very flexible and can be used as a simple program to model the expansion of natural hazards, as a program of quantitatively estimate risks or as a detailed analysis at a municipality level. The tool is extensible and can be expanded with additional modules. The initial results of the experimental case study show how useful a GIS-based system can be for effective and efficient disaster response management. In the coming years our GIS application will be a data base containing all information needed for the evaluation of risk sites along the Gotthard line. Our GIS application can help the technical management to decide about protection measures because of, in addition to the visualisation, tools for spatial data analysis will be available. REFERENCES Bründl M. (Ed.) 2009 : Risikokonzept für Naturgefahren - Leitfaden. Nationale Plattform für Naturgefahren PLANAT, Bern. 416 S. BUWAL 1999: Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren - Methode, Fallbeispiele und Daten (Risk analyses for gravitational natural hazards). Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL). Umwelt-Materialen Nr. 107, 1-244. Loat, R. & Zimmermann, M. 2004: La gestion des risques en Suisse (Risk Management in Switzerland). In: Veyret, Y., Garry, G., Meschinet de Richemont, N. & Armand Colin (eds) 2002: Colloque Arche de la Défense 22-24 octobre 2002, dans Risques naturels et aménagement en Europe, 108-120. Maggi R. et al, 2009: Evaluation of the optimal resilience for vulnerable infrastructure networks. An interdisciplinary pilot study on the transalpine transportation corridors, NRP 54 "Sustainable Development of the Built Environment", Projekt Nr. 405 440, Final Scientific Report, Lugano

Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2014-01-01

NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Tom

In this report we compare two measures of driver risks: fatality risk per vehicle registration-year, and casualty (fatality plus serious injury) risk per police-reported crash. Our analysis is based on three sets of data from five states (Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, and Pennsylvania): data on all police-reported crashes involving model year 2000 to 2004 vehicles; 2005 county-level vehicle registration data by vehicle model year and make/model; and odometer readings from vehicle emission inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs conducted in urban areas of four of the five states (Florida does not have an I/M program). The two measures of risk couldmore » differ for three reasons: casualty risks are different from fatality risk; risks per vehicle registration-year are different from risks per crash; and risks estimated from national data are different from risks from the five states analyzed here. We also examined the effect of driver behavior, crash location, and general vehicle design on risk, as well as sources of potential bias in using the crash data from five states.« less

Programs to Increase High School Completion

PubMed Central

Hahn, Robert A.; Knopf, John A.; Wilson, Sandra Jo; Truman, Benedict I.; Milstein, Bobby; Johnson, Robert L.; Fielding, Jonathan E.; Muntaner, Carles J.M.; Jones, Camara Phyllis; Fullilove, Mindy T.; Moss, Regina Davis; Uefffng, Erin; Hunt, Pete C.

2015-01-01

Context High school completion (HSC) is an established predictor of long-term morbidity and mortality. U.S. rates of HSC are substantially lower among students from low-income families and most racial/ethnic minority populations than students from high-income families and the non-Hispanic white population. This systematic review assesses the effectiveness of programs to increase HSC and the potential of these programs to improve lifelong health among at-risk students. Evidence acquisition A search located a meta-analysis (search period 1985–2010/2011) on the effects of programs to increase HSC or General Educational Development (GED) diploma receipt; the meta-analysis was concordant with Community Guide definitions and methodologic standards. Programs were assessed separately for the general student population (152 studies) and students who were parents or pregnant (15 studies). A search for studies published between 2010 and August 2012 located ten more recent studies, which were assessed for consistency with the meta-analysis. Analyses were conducted in 2013. Evidence synthesis The review focused on the meta-analysis. Program effectiveness was measured as the increased rate of HSC (or GED receipt) by the intervention group compared with controls. All assessed program types were effective in increasing HSC in the general student population: vocational training, alternative schooling, social–emotional skills training, college-oriented programming, mentoring and counseling, supplemental academic services, school and class restructuring, multiservice packages, attendance monitoring and contingencies, community service, and case management. For students who had children or were pregnant, attendance monitoring and multiservice packages were effective. Ten studies published after the search period for the meta-analysis were consistent with its findings. Conclusions There is strong evidence that a variety of HSC programs can improve high school or GED completion rates. Because many programs are targeted to high-risk students and communities, they are likely to advance health equity. PMID:25818117

Evaluation of a Stratified National Breast Screening Program in the United Kingdom: An Early Model-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Gray, Ewan; Donten, Anna; Karssemeijer, Nico; van Gils, Carla; Evans, D Gareth; Astley, Sue; Payne, Katherine

2017-09-01

To identify the incremental costs and consequences of stratified national breast screening programs (stratified NBSPs) and drivers of relative cost-effectiveness. A decision-analytic model (discrete event simulation) was conceptualized to represent four stratified NBSPs (risk 1, risk 2, masking [supplemental screening for women with higher breast density], and masking and risk 1) compared with the current UK NBSP and no screening. The model assumed a lifetime horizon, the health service perspective to identify costs (£, 2015), and measured consequences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Multiple data sources were used: systematic reviews of effectiveness and utility, published studies reporting costs, and cohort studies embedded in existing NBSPs. Model parameter uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analysis. The base-case analysis, supported by probabilistic sensitivity analysis, suggested that the risk stratified NBSPs (risk 1 and risk-2) were relatively cost-effective when compared with the current UK NBSP, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £16,689 per QALY and £23,924 per QALY, respectively. Stratified NBSP including masking approaches (supplemental screening for women with higher breast density) was not a cost-effective alternative, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £212,947 per QALY (masking) and £75,254 per QALY (risk 1 and masking). When compared with no screening, all stratified NBSPs could be considered cost-effective. Key drivers of cost-effectiveness were discount rate, natural history model parameters, mammographic sensitivity, and biopsy rates for recalled cases. A key assumption was that the risk model used in the stratification process was perfectly calibrated to the population. This early model-based cost-effectiveness analysis provides indicative evidence for decision makers to understand the key drivers of costs and QALYs for exemplar stratified NBSP. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Goal Attainment Scaling as an Effective Strategy to Assess the Outcomes of Mentoring Programs for Troubled Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balcazar, Fabricio E.; Davies, Gethin L.; Viggers, Dave; Tranter, Gary

2006-01-01

Mentoring programs are increasingly popular as preventive and/or supportive interventions for youth with various needs. A meta-analysis of mentoring program effects conducted by DuBois, Holloway, Valentine, and Cooper (2002) suggests that youth from backgrounds of risk (defined broadly) have the capacity to benefit from mentoring, especially when…

Early Intervention in Reading[R]. What Works Clearinghouse Intervention Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

What Works Clearinghouse, 2008

2008-01-01

"Early Intervention in Reading"[R] is a program designed to provide extra instruction to groups of students at risk of failing to learn to read. The program uses picture books to stress instruction in phonemic awareness, phonics, and contextual analysis, along with repeated reading and writing. In grades K, 1, and 2, the program is based on…

An Analysis of Two Reading Intervention Programs: How Do the Words, Texts, and Programs Compare?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murray, Maria S.; Munger, Kristen A.; Hiebert, Elfrieda H.

2014-01-01

In this study, the student texts and teacher guides of two reading intervention programs for at-risk, first-grade students were analyzed and compared: Fountas and Pinnell's "Leveled Literacy Intervention" (LLI) and Scott Foresman's "My Sidewalks" (MS). The analyses drew on the framework of available theory and…

Risk-informed Management of Water Infrastructure in the United States: History, Development, and Best Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfhope, J.

2017-12-01

This presentation will focus on the history, development, and best practices for evaluating the risks associated with the portfolio of water infrastructure in the United States. These practices have evolved from the early development of the Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety and the establishment of the National Dam Safety Program, to the most recent update of the Best Practices for Dam and Levee Risk Analysis jointly published by the U.S. Department of Interior Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Since President Obama signed the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act (WIIN) Act, on December 16, 2016, adding a new grant program under FEMA's National Dam Safety Program, the focus has been on establishing a risk-based priority system for use in identifying eligible high hazard potential dams for which grants may be made. Finally, the presentation provides thoughts on the future direction and priorities for managing the risk of dams and levees in the United States.

Practitioner review: Effective ingredients of prevention programs for youth at risk of persistent juvenile delinquency--recommendations for clinical practice.

PubMed

de Vries, Sanne L A; Hoeve, Machteld; Assink, Mark; Stams, Geert Jan J M; Asscher, Jessica J

2015-02-01

There is a lack of knowledge about specific effective ingredients of prevention programs for youth at risk for persistent delinquent behavior. The present study combines findings of previous studies by examining the effectiveness of programs in preventing persistent juvenile delinquency and by studying which particular program, sample, and study characteristics contribute to the effects. Information on effective ingredients offers specific indications of how programs may be improved in clinical practice. A literature search in PsychINFO, ERIC, PubMed, Sociological Abstracts, Criminal Justice Abstracts, and Google Scholar was performed. Only (quasi)experimental studies and studies that focused on adolescents at risk for (persistent) delinquent behavior were included. Multilevel meta-analysis was conducted on 39 studies (N = 9,084). Participants' ages ranged from 6 to 20 years (M = 14 years, SD = 2.45). The overall effect size was significant and small in magnitude (d = 0.24, p < .001). Behavioral-oriented programs, focusing on parenting skills training, behavioral modeling, or behavioral contracting yielded the largest effects. Multimodal programs and programs carried out in the family context proved to be more beneficial than individual and group-based programs. Less intensive programs yielded larger effects. Prevention programs have positive effects on preventing persistent juvenile delinquency. In order to improve program effectiveness, interventions should be behavioral-oriented, delivered in a family or multimodal format, and the intensity of the program should be matched to the level of risk of the juvenile. © 2014 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

PubMed

Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

2016-06-01

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Multiple Interacting Risk Factors: On Methods for Allocating Risk Factor Interactions.

PubMed

Price, Bertram; MacNicoll, Michael

2015-05-01

A persistent problem in health risk analysis where it is known that a disease may occur as a consequence of multiple risk factors with interactions is allocating the total risk of the disease among the individual risk factors. This problem, referred to here as risk apportionment, arises in various venues, including: (i) public health management, (ii) government programs for compensating injured individuals, and (iii) litigation. Two methods have been described in the risk analysis and epidemiology literature for allocating total risk among individual risk factors. One method uses weights to allocate interactions among the individual risk factors. The other method is based on risk accounting axioms and finding an optimal and unique allocation that satisfies the axioms using a procedure borrowed from game theory. Where relative risk or attributable risk is the risk measure, we find that the game-theory-determined allocation is the same as the allocation where risk factor interactions are apportioned to individual risk factors using equal weights. Therefore, the apportionment problem becomes one of selecting a meaningful set of weights for allocating interactions among the individual risk factors. Equal weights and weights proportional to the risks of the individual risk factors are discussed. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Patterns of HIV Risks and Related Factors among People Who Inject Drugs in Kermanshah, Iran: A Latent Class Analysis.

PubMed

Sharifi, Hamid; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Noroozi, Alireza; Marshall, Brandon D L; Farhoudian, Ali; Higgs, Peter; Vameghi, Meroe; Mohhamadi Shahboulaghi, Farahnaz; Qorbani, Mostafa; Massah, Omid; Armoon, Bahram; Noroozi, Mehdi

2017-01-01

The objective of this study was to explore patterns of drug use and sexual risk behaviors among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Iran. We surveyed 500 PWID in Kermanshah concerning demographic characteristics, sexual risk behaviors, and drug-related risk behaviors in the month prior to study. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to establish a baseline model of risk profiles and to identify the optimal number of latent classes, and we used ordinal regression to identify factors associated with class membership. Three classes of multiple HIV risk were identified. The probability of membership in the high-risk class was 0.33, compared to 0.26 and 0.40 for the low- and moderate-risk classes, respectively. Compared to members in the lowest-risk class (reference group), the highest-risk class members had higher odds of being homeless (OR = 4.5, CI: 1.44-8.22; p = 0.001) in the past 12 months. Members of the high-risk class had lower odds of regularly visiting a needle and syringe exchange program as compared to the lowest-risk class members (AOR = 0.42, CI: 0.2-0.81; p = 0.01). Findings show the sexual and drug-related HIV risk clusters among PWID in Iran, and emphasize the importance of developing targeted prevention and harm reduction programs for all domains of risk behaviors, both sexual and drug use related.

A national hypertension treatment program in Germany and its estimated impact on costs, life expectancy, and cost-effectiveness.

PubMed

Gandjour, Afschin; Stock, Stephanie

2007-10-01

Almost 15 million Germans may suffer from untreated hypertension. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a national hypertension treatment program compared to no program. A Markov decision model from the perspective of the statutory health insurance (SHI) was built. All data were taken from secondary sources. The target population consists of hypertensive male and female patients at high or low risk for cardiovascular events at different age groups (40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years). The analysis shows fairly moderate cost-effectiveness ratios even for low-risk groups (less than 12,000 euros per life year gained). In women at high risk antihypertensive treatment even leads to savings. This suggests that a national hypertension treatment program provides good value for money. Given the considerable costs of the program itself, any savings from avoiding long-term consequences of hypertension are likely to be offset, however.

An Evaluation of FrancoForme: A CASE-MANAGED HOME-BASED PRIMARY AND SECONDARY CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE PREVENTION PROGRAM FOR FRENCH-SPEAKING CANADIANS.

PubMed

Prince, Stephanie A; Laflamme, Marc; Harris, Jennifer; Tulloch, Heather E; de Margerie, Michele

2017-11-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality globally. Telephone-delivered interventions targeting cardiovascular risk factors are gaining popularity. This study is an evaluation of FrancoForme, a cardiovascular risk factor reduction program for the primary and secondary prevention of CVD among French-speaking patients of Eastern Ontario. This study reports on changes in cardiovascular risk factors, weekly exercise levels, and psychosocial characteristics including anxiety, depression, and quality of life upon program completion (3 months) and at 1 year after the start of the program. Repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to compare changes in outcomes between primary prevention risk groups (low, moderate, and high risk for CVD) and the secondary prevention group (ie, cardiac rehabilitation) at baseline, 3 months and 12 months. A total of 762 patients enrolled in FrancoForme between 2008 and 2015. At 3 months, all program completers (n = 507) experienced significant reductions for all cardiovascular risk factors except diastolic blood pressure. Minutes of self-reported exercise increased significantly by an average 90 minutes per week and all psychosocial variables improved. Significant group effects were observed across several risk factors. Among 12-month responders (n = 240), exercise, high-density lipoproteins, triglycerides, cholesterol, and all psychosocial variables were improved over baseline results. FrancoForme is unique in targeting both the primary and secondary prevention of CVD and removes several of the barriers to participating in a conventional CVD prevention program for French-speaking patients. FrancoForme is successful, receiving high satisfaction rates and resulting in significant improvements in cardiovascular risk factors, exercise, anxiety, and depression, as well as quality of life.

Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scroggins, Sharon

2007-01-01

NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated potential risks within NASA, as well as the process for communicating and cooperating with other government agencies and industry partners, both domestic and international, to ensure mission success.

Is a HIV vaccine a viable option and at what price? An economic evaluation of adding HIV vaccination into existing prevention programs in Thailand.

PubMed

Leelahavarong, Pattara; Teerawattananon, Yot; Werayingyong, Pitsaphun; Akaleephan, Chutima; Premsri, Nakorn; Namwat, Chawetsan; Peerapatanapokin, Wiwat; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

2011-07-05

This study aims to determine the maximum price at which HIV vaccination is cost-effective in the Thai healthcare setting. It also aims to identify the relative importance of vaccine characteristics and risk behavior changes among vaccine recipients to determine how they affect this cost-effectiveness. A semi-Markov model was developed to estimate the costs and health outcomes of HIV prevention programs combined with HIV vaccination in comparison to the existing HIV prevention programs without vaccination. The estimation was based on a lifetime horizon period (99 years) and used the government perspective. The analysis focused on both the general population and specific high-risk population groups. The maximum price of cost-effective vaccination was defined by using threshold analysis; one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The study employed an expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis to determine the relative importance of parameters and to prioritize future studies. The most expensive HIV vaccination which is cost-effective when given to the general population was 12,000 Thai baht (US$1 = 34 Thai baht in 2009). This vaccination came with 70% vaccine efficacy and lifetime protection as long as risk behavior was unchanged post-vaccination. The vaccine would be considered cost-ineffective at any price if it demonstrated low efficacy (30%) and if post-vaccination risk behavior increased by 10% or more, especially among the high-risk population groups. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were the most sensitive to change in post-vaccination risk behavior, followed by vaccine efficacy and duration of protection. The EVPI indicated the need to quantify vaccine efficacy, changed post-vaccination risk behavior, and the costs of vaccination programs. The approach used in this study differentiated it from other economic evaluations and can be applied for the economic evaluation of other health interventions not available in healthcare systems. This study is important not only for researchers conducting future HIV vaccine research but also for policy decision makers who, in the future, will consider vaccine adoption.

Gait Speed among Older Participants Enrolled in an Evidence-Based Fall Risk Reduction Program: A Subgroup Analysis.

PubMed

Cho, Jinmyoung; Smith, Matthew Lee; Shubert, Tiffany E; Jiang, Luohua; Ahn, SangNam; Ory, Marcia G

2015-01-01

Functional decline is a primary risk factor for institutionalization and mortality among older adults. Although community-based fall risk reduction programs have been widely disseminated, little is known about their impact on gait speed, a key indicator of functional performance. Changes in functional performance between baseline and post-intervention were examined by means of timed up and go (TUG), a standardized functional assessment test administered to participants enrolled in A Matter of Balance/Volunteer Lay Leader (AMOB/VLL) model, an evidence-based fall risk reduction program. This study included 71 participants enrolled in an AMOB/VLL program in the Brazos Valley and South Plain regions of Texas. Paired t-tests were employed to assess program effects on gait speed at baseline and post-intervention for all participants and by subgroups of age, sex, living status, delivery sites, and self-rated health. The Bonferroni correction was applied to adjust inflated Type I error rate associated with performing multiple t-tests, for which p-values <0.0042 (i.e., 0.5/12 comparisons) were deemed statistically significant. Overall, gait speed of enrolled participants improved from baseline to post-intervention (t = 3.22, p = 0.002). Significant changes in TUG scores were observed among participants who lived with others (t = 4.45, p < 0.001), rated their health as excellent, very good, or good (t = 3.05, p = 0.003), and attended program workshops at senior centers (t = 3.52, p = 0.003). Findings suggest community-based fall risk reduction programs can improve gait speed for older adults. More translational research is needed to understand factors related to the effectiveness of fall risk reduction programs in various populations and settings.

TU-FG-201-12: Designing a Risk-Based Quality Assurance Program for a Newly Implemented Y-90 Microspheres Procedure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vile, D; Zhang, L; Cuttino, L

2016-06-15

Purpose: To create a quality assurance program based upon a risk-based assessment of a newly implemented SirSpheres Y-90 procedure. Methods: A process map was created for a newly implemented SirSpheres procedure at a community hospital. The process map documented each step of this collaborative procedure, as well as the roles and responsibilities of each member. From the process map, different potential failure modes were determined as well as any current controls in place. From this list, a full failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) was performed by grading each failure mode’s likelihood of occurrence, likelihood of detection, and potential severity.more » These numbers were then multiplied to compute the risk priority number (RPN) for each potential failure mode. Failure modes were then ranked based on their RPN. Additional controls were then added, with failure modes corresponding to the highest RPNs taking priority. Results: A process map was created that succinctly outlined each step in the SirSpheres procedure in its current implementation. From this, 72 potential failure modes were identified and ranked according to their associated RPN. Quality assurance controls and safety barriers were then added for failure modes associated with the highest risk being addressed first. Conclusion: A quality assurance program was created from a risk-based assessment of the SirSpheres process. Process mapping and FMEA were effective in identifying potential high-risk failure modes for this new procedure, which were prioritized for new quality assurance controls. TG 100 recommends the fault tree analysis methodology to design a comprehensive and effective QC/QM program, yet we found that by simply introducing additional safety barriers to address high RPN failure modes makes the whole process simpler and safer.« less

Study of the outlook for the development of the gas industry in Russia and analysis of risk associated with this process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseeva, O. A.; Luk'yanova, A. S.; Tarasov, A. E.

2010-12-01

The gas industry in Russia will develop under conditions of the persistence of existing risks and emergence of the new ones caused by the world financial crisis, increased uncertainty in estimating world prices for natural gas, together with disturbed balance between interests of gas producers and consumers, and threat of loss of the competitiveness of Russian natural gas on foreign markets. In this context, in choosing a strategy of the development of the gas industry and its production-and-financial program, it is necessary to carry out a risk analysis of optimum decisions. Specific features of carrying out a risk analysis and results of the risk analysis of strategic decisions that would provide enhanced steadiness and the effectiveness of the development of the gas industry under conditions of the uncertainty of both external and internal factors are presented.

Bioastronautics Roadmap: A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

The Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap is the framework used to identify and assess the risks to crews exposed to the hazardous environments of space. It guides the implementation of research strategies to prevent or reduce those risks. Although the BCPR identifies steps that must be taken to reduce the risks to health and performance that are associated with human space flight, the BCPR is not a "critical path" analysis in the strict engineering sense. The BCPR will evolve to accommodate new information and technology development and will enable NASA to conduct a formal critical path analysis in the future. As a management tool, the BCPR provides information for making informed decisions about research priorities and resource allocation. The outcome-driven nature of the BCPR makes it amenable for assessing the focus, progress and success of the Bioastronautics research and technology program. The BCPR is also a tool for communicating program priorities and progress to the research community and NASA management.

TU-AB-BRD-00: Task Group 100

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

2015-06-15

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before amore » failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to perform failure modes and effects analysis analysis for a given process Learn what fault trees are all about Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis. Dunscombe: Director, TreatSafely, LLC and Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences; Consultant to IAEA and Varian Thomadsen: President, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences Palta: Vice President of the Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences.« less

TU-AB-BRD-01: Process Mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palta, J.

2015-06-15

Current quality assurance and quality management guidelines provided by various professional organizations are prescriptive in nature, focusing principally on performance characteristics of planning and delivery devices. However, published analyses of events in radiation therapy show that most events are often caused by flaws in clinical processes rather than by device failures. This suggests the need for the development of a quality management program that is based on integrated approaches to process and equipment quality assurance. Industrial engineers have developed various risk assessment tools that are used to identify and eliminate potential failures from a system or a process before amore » failure impacts a customer. These tools include, but are not limited to, process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis. Task Group 100 of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine has developed these tools and used them to formulate an example risk-based quality management program for intensity-modulated radiotherapy. This is a prospective risk assessment approach that analyzes potential error pathways inherent in a clinical process and then ranks them according to relative risk, typically before implementation, followed by the design of a new process or modification of the existing process. Appropriate controls are then put in place to ensure that failures are less likely to occur and, if they do, they will more likely be detected before they propagate through the process, compromising treatment outcome and causing harm to the patient. Such a prospective approach forms the basis of the work of Task Group 100 that has recently been approved by the AAPM. This session will be devoted to a discussion of these tools and practical examples of how these tools can be used in a given radiotherapy clinic to develop a risk based quality management program. Learning Objectives: Learn how to design a process map for a radiotherapy process Learn how to perform failure modes and effects analysis analysis for a given process Learn what fault trees are all about Learn how to design a quality management program based upon the information obtained from process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis. Dunscombe: Director, TreatSafely, LLC and Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences; Consultant to IAEA and Varian Thomadsen: President, Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences Palta: Vice President of the Center for the Assessment of Radiological Sciences.« less

Medical cost savings for participants and nonparticipants in health risk assessments, lifestyle management, disease management, depression management, and nurseline in a large financial services corporation.

PubMed

Serxner, Seth; Alberti, Angela; Weinberger, Sarah

2012-01-01

To compare changes in medical costs between participants and nonparticipants in five different health and productivity management (HPM) programs. Quasi-experimental pre/post intervention study. A large financial services corporation. A cohort population of employees enrolled in medical plans (n  =  49,723) [corrected]. A comprehensive HPM program, which addressed health risks, acute and chronic conditions, and psychosocial disorders from 2005 to 2007. Incentives were used to encourage health risk assessment participation in years 2 and 3. Program participation and medical claims data were collected for members at the end of each program year to assess the change in total costs from the baseline period. Analysis . Multivariate analyses for participation categories were conducted comparing baseline versus program year cost differences, controlling for demographics. All participation categories yielded a lower cost increase compared to nonparticipation and a positive return on investment (ROI) for years 2 and 3, resulting in a 2.45∶1 ROI for the combined program years. Medical cost savings exceeded program costs in a wide variety of health and productivity management programs by the second year.

78 FR 50022 - Environmental Impact Statement; Asian Longhorned Beetle Eradication Program

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-16

... submit comments regarding the environmental impact statement by either of the following methods: Federal..., Environmental Protection Specialist, Environmental and Risk Analysis Services, PPD, APHIS, 4700 River Road Unit...] Environmental Impact Statement; Asian Longhorned Beetle Eradication Program AGENCY: Animal and Plant Health...

40 CFR 1400.8 - Access to off-site consequence analysis information by Federal government officials.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY AND DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE ACCIDENTAL RELEASE PREVENTION REQUIREMENTS; RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS UNDER THE CLEAN AIR ACT SECTION 112(r)(7); DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS...

Risk management in international manned space program operations.

PubMed

Seastrom, J W; Peercy, R L; Johnson, G W; Sotnikov, B J; Brukhanov, N

2004-02-01

New, innovative joint safety policies and requirements were developed in support of the Shuttle/Mir program, which is the first phase of the International Space Station program. This work has resulted in a joint multinational analysis culminating in joint certification for mission readiness. For these planning and development efforts, each nation's risk programs and individual safety practices had to be integrated into a comprehensive and compatible system that reflects the joint nature of the endeavor. This paper highlights the major incremental steps involved in planning and program integration during development of the Shuttle/Mir program. It traces the transition from early development to operational status and highlights the valuable lessons learned that apply to the International Space Station program (Phase 2). Also examined are external and extraneous factors that affected mission operations and the corresponding solutions to ensure safe and effective Shuttle/Mir missions. c2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

When does mass screening for open neural tube defects in low-risk pregnancies result in cost savings?

PubMed Central

Tosi, L L; Detsky, A S; Roye, D P; Morden, M L

1987-01-01

Using a decision analysis model, we estimated the savings that might be derived from a mass prenatal screening program aimed at detecting open neural tube defects (NTDs) in low-risk pregnancies. Our baseline analysis showed that screening v. no screening could be expected to save approximately $8 per pregnancy given a cost of $7.50 for the maternal serum alpha-feto-protein (MSAFP) test and a cost of $42,507 for hospital and rehabilitation services for the first 10 years of life for a child with spina bifida. When a more liberal estimate of the costs of caring for such a child was used, the savings with the screening program were more substantial. We performed extensive sensitivity analyses, which showed that the savings were somewhat sensitive to the cost of the MSAFP test and highly sensitive to the specificity (but not the sensitivity) of the test. A screening program for NTDs in low-risk pregnancies may result in substantial savings in direct health care costs if the screening protocol is followed rigorously and efficiently. PMID:2433011

How the Military Health System Can Fulfill the Promise. An Analysis of the Federal Employees Health Benefit Program for the DOD

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-01

over the other. If DoD utilized FEHBP, advantages of size, shifting financial risk to insurers, keeping the health benefit up to date, and improved... advantages in size, reduction of administrative costs, unifying the benefit , shifting financial risk to insurers, keeping the benefit up to date...FEDERAL EMPLOYEES HEALTH BENEFIT PROGRAM FOR THE DOD by Daniel E. Lee, Major, USAF A Research Report Submitted to the Faculty In Partial

Designing a risk-based surveillance program for Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis in Norwegian dairy herds using multivariate statistical process control analysis.

PubMed

Whist, A C; Liland, K H; Jonsson, M E; Sæbø, S; Sviland, S; Østerås, O; Norström, M; Hopp, P

2014-11-01

Surveillance programs for animal diseases are critical to early disease detection and risk estimation and to documenting a population's disease status at a given time. The aim of this study was to describe a risk-based surveillance program for detecting Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in Norwegian dairy cattle. The included risk factors for detecting MAP were purchase of cattle, combined cattle and goat farming, and location of the cattle farm in counties containing goats with MAP. The risk indicators included production data [culling of animals >3 yr of age, carcass conformation of animals >3 yr of age, milk production decrease in older lactating cows (lactations 3, 4, and 5)], and clinical data (diarrhea, enteritis, or both, in animals >3 yr of age). Except for combined cattle and goat farming and cattle farm location, all data were collected at the cow level and summarized at the herd level. Predefined risk factors and risk indicators were extracted from different national databases and combined in a multivariate statistical process control to obtain a risk assessment for each herd. The ordinary Hotelling's T(2) statistic was applied as a multivariate, standardized measure of difference between the current observed state and the average state of the risk factors for a given herd. To make the analysis more robust and adapt it to the slowly developing nature of MAP, monthly risk calculations were based on data accumulated during a 24-mo period. Monitoring of these variables was performed to identify outliers that may indicate deviance in one or more of the underlying processes. The highest-ranked herds were scattered all over Norway and clustered in high-density dairy cattle farm areas. The resulting rankings of herds are being used in the national surveillance program for MAP in 2014 to increase the sensitivity of the ongoing surveillance program in which 5 fecal samples for bacteriological examination are collected from 25 dairy herds. The use of multivariate statistical process control for selection of herds will be beneficial when a diagnostic test suitable for mass screening is available and validated on the Norwegian cattle population, thus making it possible to increase the number of sampled herds. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A meta-analysis of predictors of offender treatment attrition and its relationship to recidivism.

PubMed

Olver, Mark E; Stockdale, Keira C; Wormith, J Stephen

2011-02-01

The failure of offenders to complete psychological treatment can pose significant concerns, including increased risk for recidivism. Although a large literature identifying predictors of offender treatment attrition has accumulated, there has yet to be a comprehensive quantitative review. A meta-analysis of the offender treatment literature was conducted to identify predictors of offender treatment attrition and examine its relationship to recidivism. The review covered 114 studies representing 41,438 offenders. Sex offender and domestic violence programs were also examined separately given their large independent literatures. The overall attrition rate was 27.1% across all programs (k = 96), 27.6% from sex offender programs (k = 34), and 37.8% from domestic violence programs (k = 35). Rates increased when preprogram attrition was considered. Significant predictors included demographic characteristics (e.g., age, rw = -.10), criminal history and personality variables (e.g., prior offenses, rw = .14; antisocial personality, rw = .14), psychological concerns (e.g., intelligence, rw = -.14), risk assessment measures (e.g., Statistical Information on Recidivism scale, rw =.18), and treatment-related attitudes and behaviors (e.g., motivation, rw = -.13). Results indicated that treatment noncompleters were higher risk offenders and attrition from all programs significantly predicted several recidivism outcomes ranging from rw = .08 to .23. The clients who stand to benefit the most from treatment (i.e., high-risk, high-needs) are the least likely to complete it. Offender treatment attrition can be managed and clients can be retained through an awareness of, and attention to, key predictors of attrition and adherence to responsivity considerations.

Public finance of rotavirus vaccination in India and Ethiopia: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Verguet, Stéphane; Murphy, Shane; Anderson, Benjamin; Johansson, Kjell Arne; Glass, Roger; Rheingans, Richard

2013-10-01

An estimated 4% of global child deaths (approximately 300,000 deaths) were attributed to rotavirus in 2010. About a third of these deaths occurred in India and Ethiopia. Public finance of rotavirus vaccination in these two countries could substantially decrease child mortality and also reduce rotavirus-related hospitalizations, prevent health-related impoverishment and bring significant cost savings to households. We use a methodology of 'extended cost-effectiveness analysis' (ECEA) to evaluate a hypothetical publicly financed program for rotavirus vaccination in India and Ethiopia. We measure program impact along four dimensions: 1) rotavirus deaths averted; 2) household expenditures averted; 3) financial risk protection afforded; 4) distributional consequences across the wealth strata of the country populations. In India and Ethiopia, the program would lead to a substantial decrease in rotavirus deaths, mainly among the poorer; it would reduce household expenditures across all income groups and it would effectively provide financial risk protection, mostly concentrated among the poorest. Potential indirect benefits of vaccination (herd immunity) would increase program benefits among all income groups, whereas potentially decreased vaccine efficacy among poorer households would reduce the equity benefits of the program. Our approach incorporates financial risk protection and distributional consequences into the systematic economic evaluation of vaccine policy, illustrated here with the case study of public finance for rotavirus vaccination. This enables selection of vaccine packages based on the quantitative inclusion of information on equity and on how much financial risk protection is being bought per dollar expenditure on vaccine policy, in addition to how much health is being bought. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Factors for Suicide Ideation Among Adolescents: Five-Year National Data Analysis.

PubMed

Im, Yeojin; Oh, Won-Oak; Suk, Minhyun

2017-06-01

This study identified risk factors for suicide ideation among adolescents through a secondary analysis using data collected over five years from the 5th-9th Korea Youth Risk Behavior Survey. We analyzed 370,568 students' responses to questions about suicidality. The risk factors for suicide ideation included demographic characteristics, such as gender (girls), low grades, low economic status, and not living with one or both parents. Behavioral and mental health risk factors affecting suicide ideation were depression, low sleep satisfaction, high stress, alcohol consumption, smoking, and sexual activity. Health care providers should particularly target adolescents manifesting the above risk factors when developing suicide prevention programs for them. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

EVALUATION OF RISKS AND WASTE CHARACTERIZATION REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSURANIC WASTE EMPLACED IN WIPP DURING 1999

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Channell, J.K.; Walker, B.A.

2000-05-01

Specifically this report: 1. Compares requirements of the WAP that are pertinent from a technical viewpoint with the WIPP pre-Permit waste characterization program, 2. Presents the results of a risk analysis of the currently emplaced wastes. Expected and bounding risks from routine operations and possible accidents are evaluated; and 3. Provides conclusions and recommendations.

Influences on Adaptive Planning to Reduce Flood Risks among Parishes in South Louisiana.

PubMed

Paille, Mary; Reams, Margaret; Argote, Jennifer; Lam, Nina S-N; Kirby, Ryan

2016-02-01

Residents of south Louisiana face a range of increasing, climate-related flood exposure risks that could be reduced through local floodplain management and hazard mitigation planning. A major incentive for community planning to reduce exposure to flood risks is offered by the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP encourages local collective action by offering reduced flood insurance premiums for individual policy holders of communities where suggested risk-reducing measures have been implemented. This preliminary analysis examines the extent to which parishes (counties) in southern Louisiana have implemented the suggested policy actions and identifies key factors that account for variation in the implementation of the measures. More measures implemented results in higher CRS scores. Potential influences on scores include socioeconomic attributes of residents, government capacity, average elevation and past flood events. The results of multiple regression analysis indicate that higher CRS scores are associated most closely with higher median housing values. Furthermore, higher scores are found in parishes with more local municipalities that participate in the CRS program. The number of floods in the last five years and the revenue base of the parish does not appear to influence CRS scores. The results shed light on the conditions under which local adaptive planning to mitigate increasing flood risks is more likely to be implemented and offer insights for program administrators, researchers and community stakeholders.

Influences on Adaptive Planning to Reduce Flood Risks among Parishes in South Louisiana

PubMed Central

Paille, Mary; Reams, Margaret; Argote, Jennifer; Lam, Nina S.-N.; Kirby, Ryan

2016-01-01

Residents of south Louisiana face a range of increasing, climate-related flood exposure risks that could be reduced through local floodplain management and hazard mitigation planning. A major incentive for community planning to reduce exposure to flood risks is offered by the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP encourages local collective action by offering reduced flood insurance premiums for individual policy holders of communities where suggested risk-reducing measures have been implemented. This preliminary analysis examines the extent to which parishes (counties) in southern Louisiana have implemented the suggested policy actions and identifies key factors that account for variation in the implementation of the measures. More measures implemented results in higher CRS scores. Potential influences on scores include socioeconomic attributes of residents, government capacity, average elevation and past flood events. The results of multiple regression analysis indicate that higher CRS scores are associated most closely with higher median housing values. Furthermore, higher scores are found in parishes with more local municipalities that participate in the CRS program. The number of floods in the last five years and the revenue base of the parish does not appear to influence CRS scores. The results shed light on the conditions under which local adaptive planning to mitigate increasing flood risks is more likely to be implemented and offer insights for program administrators, researchers and community stakeholders. PMID:27330828

Safety and cost benefit of an ambulatory program for patients with low-risk neutropenic fever at an Australian centre.

PubMed

Teh, Benjamin W; Brown, Christine; Joyce, Trish; Worth, Leon J; Slavin, Monica A; Thursky, Karin A

2018-03-01

Neutropenic fever (NF) is a common complication of cancer chemotherapy. Patients at low risk of medical complications from NF can be identified using a validated risk assessment and managed in an outpatient setting. This is a new model of care for Australia. This study described the implementation of a sustainable ambulatory program for NF at a tertiary cancer centre over a 12-month period. Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre introduced an ambulatory care program in 2014, which identified low-risk NF patients, promoted early de-escalation to oral antibiotics, and early discharge to a nurse-led ambulatory program. Patients prospectively enrolled in the ambulatory program were compared with a historical-matched cohort of patients from 2011 for analysis. Patient demographics, clinical variables (cancer type, recent chemotherapy, treatment intent, site of presentation) and outcomes were collected and compared. Total cost of inpatient admissions was determined from diagnosis-related group (DRG) codes and applied to both the prospective and historical cohorts to allow comparisons. Twenty-five patients were managed in the first year of this program with a reduction in hospital median length of stay from 4.0 to 1.1 days and admission cost from Australian dollars ($AUD) 8580 to $AUD2360 compared to the historical cohort. Offsetting salary costs, the ambulatory program had a net cost benefit of $AUD 71895. Readmission for fever was infrequent (8.0%), and no deaths were reported. Of relevance to hospitals providing cancer care, feasibility, safety, and cost benefits of an ambulatory program for low-risk NF patients have been demonstrated.

An Analysis of Academic Assistance Programs on At-Risk Students at the United States Naval Academy

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

ADDRESS(ES) N/ A 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the...programs are available to these students. In particular, the Naval Academy administers a program known as the Midshipmen Group Study Program, which...is based on the supplemental instruction model. This study examines the impact of participation in each of these programs as a determinant to

Cost effectiveness analysis of a smoke alarm giveaway program in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

PubMed

Haddix, A C; Mallonee, S; Waxweiler, R; Douglas, M R

2001-12-01

To estimate the cost effectiveness of the Lifesavers Residential Fire and Injury Prevention Program (LRFIPP), a smoke alarm giveaway program. In 1990, the LRFIPP distributed over 10,000 smoke alarms in an area of Oklahoma City at high risk for residential fire injuries. The program also included fire prevention education and battery replacement components. A cost effectiveness analysis was conducted from the societal and health care systems perspectives. The study compared program costs with the total costs of medical treatment and productivity losses averted over a five year period. Fatal and non-fatal residential fire related injuries prevented were estimated from surveillance data. Medical costs were obtained from chart reviews of patients with fire related injuries that occurred during the pre-intervention period. During the five years post-intervention, it is estimated that the LRFIPP prevented 20 fatal and 24 non-fatal injuries. From the societal perspective, the total discounted cost of the program was $531,000. Total discounted net savings exceeded $15 million. From the health care system perspective, the total discounted net savings were almost $1 million and would have a net saving even if program effectiveness was reduced by 64%. The program was effective in reducing fatal and non-fatal residential fire related injuries and was cost saving. Similar programs in other high risk areas would be good investments even if program effectiveness was lower than that achieved by the LRFIPP.

Changing Beliefs and Behaviors Related to Sexually Transmitted Diseases in Vulnerable Women: A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Boroumandfar, Zahra; Kianpour, Masoud; Zargham, Ali; Abdoli, Samereh; Tayeri, Katayoun; Salehi, Mehrdad; Momeni, Godratollah; Khorvash, Farzin

2017-01-01

The first step in health education is awareness of the people and their acceptance to change their behavior. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the effects of empowerment program towards the concept of self-care and prevention of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in women at risk of STDs. The present study was conducted as a qualitative approach (step of action and observation of an action) by using conventional content analysis method. An empowerment program regarding STDs (Action) was performed among 32 (with convenient sample) drug user women with addicted husbands referring to the counseling center for vulnerable women (drop in enter) in Isfahan in 2015. The knowledge of quiddity, transmission, and prevention of STDs, as well as some items of life skills such as self-awareness, interpersonal communication, and assertive behavior were taught in an educational program. Teaching methods were lectures, group, and individual training and role play. The impact of the program on modified belief and behavior change regarding STDs was evaluated with structured interviews. Analysis of the obtained results yielded three categories. The categories were awareness of STD, believing in being at risk, and decision and change. Promoting self-care and prevention through education programs based on action research can make a significant reduction in the incidence of problems and cause a behavior change in women with the disease or those at risk for STDs.

Primary analysis of the Mandarin-speaking sub-study within the Sydney diabetes prevention program.

PubMed

Taing, Cecilia Y; Gibson, Alice A; Colagiuri, Stephen; Vita, Philip; Cardona-Morrell, Magnolia; Bauman, Adrian; Moore, Michael; Williams, Mandy; Milat, Andrew; Hony, Jacky; Lin, Sophia; Gwizd, Melissa; Fiatarone Singh, Maria A

2017-10-01

There is strong and consistent evidence from large scale randomised controlled trials that type 2 diabetes can be prevented or delayed through lifestyle modification which improves diet quality, increases physical activity and achieves weight loss in people at risk. Worldwide, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing in individuals of Chinese descent. Culturally tailored programs are required to address the risk in the Chinese population. This paper analyses effectiveness of a culturally tailored community-based lifestyle modification program (Sydney Diabetes Prevention Program (SDPP)) targeting Mandarin speakers. The SDPP was a 12 month translational study aiming to promote increased physical activity and dietary changes. Effectiveness was assessed through the improvement of anthropometric, metabolic, physical activity and dietary outcomes and number of goals met. Seventy-eight Mandarin-speaking participants at a high risk (Australian Diabetes Risk, AUSDRISK≥15) of developing diabetes were recruited for this study. In this cohort, waist circumference, total cholesterol and fat intake significantly improved at the 12-month review. In comparison to the English-speaking stream, the Mandarin-speaking stream achieved fewer improvements in outcomes and goals. The SDPP was not effective in reducing the risk factors associated with developing type 2 diabetes in this cohort of high risk Mandarin-speaking individuals living in Sydney. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mars Exploration Rovers Landing Dispersion Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knocke, Philip C.; Wawrzyniak, Geoffrey G.; Kennedy, Brian M.; Desai, Prasun N.; Parker, TImothy J.; Golombek, Matthew P.; Duxbury, Thomas C.; Kass, David M.

2004-01-01

Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. JPL's MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and JPL's AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

The Read 180 Program: Analysis of Program Effect on the Reading Achievement, Motivation, Engagement, and Self-Efficacy of Sixth Grade Middle School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawson, Sylvia

2011-01-01

National testing standards have increased pressure on school personnel to identify and implement instructional practices that facilitate the academic achievement of at-risk students. No Child Left Behind legislation currently mandates that reading programs at the middle school level receiving federal funding must use scientifically validated…

A Cost-Benefit Study of a Breaking the Cycle Program for Juveniles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cowell, Alexander J.; Lattimore, Pamela K.; Krebs, Christopher P.

2010-01-01

The authors present a cost-benefit analysis of a Juvenile Breaking the Cycle (JBTC) program in Oregon designed to provide juvenile justice system monitoring and coordinated treatment and services to youth who are assessed as at high risk for recidivism and substance use. Detailed cost analyses are presented for youth in the JBTC program and a…

PDA survey of quality risk management practices in the pharmaceutical, devices, & biotechnology industries.

PubMed

Ahmed, Ruhi; Baseman, Harold; Ferreira, Jorge; Genova, Thomas; Harclerode, William; Hartman, Jeffery; Kim, Samuel; Londeree, Nanette; Long, Michael; Miele, William; Ramjit, Timothy; Raschiatore, Marlene; Tomonto, Charles

2008-01-01

In July 2006 the Parenteral Drug Association's Risk Management Task Force for Aseptic Processes, conducted an electronic survey of PDA members to determine current industry practices regarding implementation of Quality Risk Management in their organizations. This electronic survey was open and publicly available via the PDA website and targeted professionals in our industry who are involved in initiating, implementing, or reviewing risk management programs or decisions in their organizations. One hundred twenty-nine members participated and their demographics are presented in the sidebar "Correspondents Profile". Among the major findings are: *The "Aseptic Processing/Filling" operation is the functional area identified as having the greatest need for risk assessment and quality risk management. *The most widely used methodology in industry to identify risk is Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). This tool was most widely applied in assessing change control and for adverse event, complaint, or failure investigations. *Despite the fact that personnel training was identified as the strategy most used for controlling/minimizing risk, the largest contributors to sterility failure in operations are still "Personnel". *Most companies still rely on "Manufacturing Controls" to mitigate risk and deemed the utilization of Process Analytical Technology (PAT) least important in this aspect. *A majority of correspondents verified that they did not periodically assess their risk management programs. *A majority of the correspondents desired to see case studies or examples of risk analysis implementation (as applicable to aseptic processing) in future PDA technical reports on risk management.

Patient selection and volume in the era surrounding implementation of Medicare conditions of participation for transplant programs.

PubMed

White, Sarah L; Zinsser, Dawn M; Paul, Matthew; Levine, Gregory N; Shearon, Tempie; Ashby, Valarie B; Magee, John C; Li, Yi; Leichtman, Alan B

2015-04-01

To evaluate evidence of practice changes affecting kidney transplant program volumes, and donor, recipient and candidate selection in the era surrounding the introduction of Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) conditions of participation (CoPs) for organ transplant programs. Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients; CMS ESRD and Medicare claims databases. Retrospective analysis of national registry data. A Cox proportional hazards model of 1-year graft survival was used to derive risks associated with deceased-donor kidney transplants performed from 2001 to 2010. Among programs with ongoing noncompliance with the CoPs, kidney transplant volumes declined by 38 percent (n = 766) from 2006 to 2011, including a 55 percent drop in expanded criteria donor transplants. Volume increased by 6 percent (n = 638) among programs remaining in compliance. Aggregate risk of 1-year graft failure increased over time due to increasing recipient age and obesity, and longer ESRD duration. Although trends in aggregate risk of 1-year kidney graft loss do not indicate that the introduction of the CoPs has systematically reduced opportunities for marginal candidates or that there has been a systematic shift away from utilization of higher risk deceased donor kidneys, total volume and expanded criteria donor utilization decreased overall among programs with ongoing noncompliance. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amer, Tahani R.

2011-01-01

NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

Moderating factors in the path from physical abuse to attempted suicide in adolescents: application of the interpersonal-psychological theory of suicide.

PubMed

Cero, Ian; Sifers, Sarah

2013-06-01

Childhood physical abuse is a major risk factor for suicide attempt, but factors that moderate this risk remain largely unexamined. Moderated mediation analysis was used with 186 adolescents who responded to the Profiles of Student Life: Attitudes and Behavior survey. Physical abuse increased risk directly and indirectly through reduced self-esteem. Involvement in youth programs moderated the direct effect. Community service moderated the indirect effect. Results indicate 2 hours per week of involvement in youth programs and 2 hours per week of community service mitigated suicide attempt risk associated with abuse. Providing avenues for youth experiencing abuse to increase their community service and involvement is recommended. © 2013 The American Association of Suicidology.

Networks Analysis of a Regional Ecosystem of Afterschool Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, Martha G.; Smith, Marc A.

2011-01-01

Case studies have documented the impact of family-school-community collaboration in afterschool programs on increasing awareness about the problems of at-risk youth, initiating dialogue among leaders and community representatives, developing rich school-based information systems, and demonstrating how to build strong relationships between public…

Lung cancer in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Development and validation of the COPD Lung Cancer Screening Score.

PubMed

de-Torres, Juan P; Wilson, David O; Sanchez-Salcedo, Pablo; Weissfeld, Joel L; Berto, Juan; Campo, Arantzazu; Alcaide, Ana B; García-Granero, Marta; Celli, Bartolome R; Zulueta, Javier J

2015-02-01

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at high risk for lung cancer (LC) and represent a potential target to improve the diagnostic yield of screening programs. To develop a predictive score for LC risk for patients with COPD. The Pamplona International Early Lung Cancer Detection Program (P-IELCAP) and the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS) databases were analyzed. Only patients with COPD on spirometry were included. By logistic regression we determined which factors were independently associated with LC in PLuSS and developed a COPD LC screening score (COPD-LUCSS) to be validated in P-IELCAP. By regression analysis, age greater than 60, body mass index less than 25 kg/m(2), pack-years history greater than 60, and emphysema presence were independently associated with LC diagnosis and integrated into the COPD-LUCSS, which ranges from 0 to 10 points. Two COPD-LUCSS risk categories were proposed: low risk (scores 0-6) and high risk (scores 7-10). In comparison with low-risk patients, in both cohorts LC risk increased 3.5-fold in the high-risk category. The COPD-LUCSS is a good predictor of LC risk in patients with COPD participating in LC screening programs. Validation in two different populations adds strength to the findings.

Portfolio theory and cost-effectiveness analysis: a further discussion.

PubMed

Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Rutten, Frans F H

2004-01-01

Portfolio theory has been suggested as a means to improve the risk-return characteristics of investments in health-care programs through diversification when costs and effects are uncertain. This approach is based on the assumption that the investment proportions are not subject to uncertainty and that the budget can be invested in toto in health-care programs. In the present paper we develop an algorithm that accounts for the fact that investment proportions in health-care programs may be uncertain (due to the uncertainty associated with costs) and limited (due to the size of the programs). The initial budget allocation across programs may therefore be revised at the end of the investment period to cover the extra costs of some programs with the leftover budget of other programs in the portfolio. Once the total budget is equivalent to or exceeds the expected costs of the programs in the portfolio, the initial budget allocation policy does not impact the risk-return characteristics of the combined portfolio, i.e., there is no benefit from diversification anymore. The applicability of portfolio methods to improve the risk-return characteristics of investments in health care is limited to situations where the available budget is much smaller than the expected costs of the programs to be funded.

Benefits of a hospital-based peer intervention program for violently injured youth.

PubMed

Shibru, Daniel; Zahnd, Elaine; Becker, Marla; Bekaert, Nic; Calhoun, Deane; Victorino, Gregory P

2007-11-01

Exposure to violence predisposes youths to future violent behavior. Breaking the cycle of violence in inner cities is the primary objective of hospital-based violence intervention and prevention programs. An evaluation was undertaken to determine if a hospital-based, peer intervention program, "Caught in the Crossfire," reduces the risk of criminal justice involvement, decreases hospitalizations from traumatic reinjury, diminishes death from intentional violent trauma, and is cost effective. We designed a retrospective cohort study conducted between January 1998 and June 2003 at a university-based urban trauma center. The duration of followup was 18 months. Patients were 12 to 20 years of age and were hospitalized for intentional violent trauma. The "enrolled" group had a minimum of five interactions with an intervention specialist. The control group was selected from the hospital database by matching age, gender, race or ethnicity, type of injury, and year of admission. All patients came from socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. The total sample size was 154 patients. Participation in the hospital-based peer intervention program lowered the risk of criminal justice involvement (relative risk=0.67; 95% CI, 0.45, 0.99; p=0.04). There was no effect on risks of reinjury and death. Subsequent violent criminal behavior was reduced by 7% (p=0.15). Logistic regression analysis showed age had a confounding effect on the association between program participation and criminal justice involvement (relative risk=0.71; p=0.043). When compared with juvenile detention center costs, the total cost reduction derived from the intervention program annually was $750,000 to $1.5 million. This hospital-based peer intervention program reduces the risk of criminal justice system involvement, is more effective with younger patients, and is cost effective. Any effect on reinjury and death will require a larger sample size and longer followup.

Guidelines for Automatic Data Processing Physical Security and Risk Management. Federal Information Processing Standards Publication 31.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Bureau of Standards (DOC), Washington, DC.

These guidelines provide a handbook for use by federal organizations in structuring physical security and risk management programs for their automatic data processing facilities. This publication discusses security analysis, natural disasters, supporting utilities, system reliability, procedural measures and controls, off-site facilities,…

Risk analysis procedure for post-wildfire natural hazards in British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Peter

2010-05-01

Following a severe wildfire season in 2003, and several subsequent damaging debris flow and flood events, the British Columbia Forest Service developed a procedure for analysing risks to public safety and infrastructure from such events. At the same time, the Forest Service undertook a research program to determine the extent of post-wildfire hazards, and examine the hydrologic and geomorphic processes contributing to the hazards. The risk analysis procedure follows the Canadian Standards Association decision-making framework for risk management (which in turn is based on international standards). This has several steps: identification of risk, risk analysis and estimation, evaluation of risk tolerability, developing control or mitigation strategies, and acting on these strategies. The Forest Service procedure deals only with the first two steps. The results are passed on to authorities such as the Provincial Emergency Program and local government, who are responsible for evaluating risks, warning residents, and applying mitigation strategies if appropriate. The objective of the procedure is to identify and analyse risks to public safety and infrastructure. The procedure is loosely based on the BAER (burned area emergency response) program in the USA, with some important differences. Our procedure focuses on identifying risks and warning affected parties, not on mitigation activities such as broadcast erosion control measures. Partly this is due to limited staff and financial resources. Also, our procedure is not multi-agency, but is limited to wildfires on provincial forest land; in British Columbia about 95% of forest land is in the publicly-owned provincial forest. Each fire season, wildfires are screened by size and proximity to values at risk such as populated areas. For selected fires, when the fire is largely contained, the procedure begins with an aerial reconnaissance of the fire, and photography with a hand-held camera, which can be used to make a preliminary map of vegetation burn severity if desired. The next steps include mapping catchment boundaries, field traverses to collect data on soil burn severity and water repellency, identification of unstable hillslopes and channels, and inspection of values at risk from hazards such as debris flows or flooding. BARC (burned area reflectance classification) maps based on satellite imagery are prepared for some fires, although these are typically not available for several weeks. Our objective is to make a preliminary risk analysis report available about two weeks after the fire is contained. If high risks to public safety or infrastructure are identified, the risk analysis reports may make recommendations for mitigation measures to be considered; however, acting on these recommendations is the responsibility of local land managers, local government, or landowners. Mitigation measures for some fires have included engineering treatments to reduce the hydrologic impact of logging roads, protective structures such as dykes or berms, and straw mulching to reduce runoff and erosion on severely burned areas. The Terrace Mountain Fire, with burned 9000 hectares in the Okanagan Valley in 2009, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Air Force Risk Management Practices in Program Acquisition Using Survey Instrument Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-18

Engineering Effectiveness Survey. CMU/SEI-2012-SR-009. Carnegie Mellon University. November 2012. Field, Andy. Discovering Statistics Using SPSS , 3rd...enough into the survey to begin answering questions on risk practices. All of the data statistical analysis will be performed using SPSS . Prior to...probabilistically using distributions for likelihood and impact. Statistical methods like Monte Carlo can more comprehensively evaluate the cost and

Front-End Anti-Viral Detection Mechanisms Using Replicating/Self-Replicating Software

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-10-19

Trojan Horse program, these programs were omitted from the proof of concept. Future considerations will address these type of programs directly and...which relocates in memory. 3. Trojan Horse : A program that does other than what it was intended to do. 4. Prevention: Stop the initial and subsequent...then performed a risks analysis of potential threats. Since it is impossible, using existing technologies, to detect a well-written WORM or trojan horse

Programs to reduce teen pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections, and associated sexual risk behaviors: a systematic review.

PubMed

Goesling, Brian; Colman, Silvie; Trenholm, Christopher; Terzian, Mary; Moore, Kristin

2014-05-01

This systematic review provides a comprehensive, updated assessment of programs with evidence of effectiveness in reducing teen pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), or associated sexual risk behaviors. The review was conducted in four steps. First, multiple literature search strategies were used to identify relevant studies released from 1989 through January 2011. Second, identified studies were screened against prespecified eligibility criteria. Third, studies were assessed by teams of two trained reviewers for the quality and execution of their research designs. Fourth, for studies that passed the quality assessment, the review team extracted and analyzed information on the research design, study sample, evaluation setting, and program impacts. A total of 88 studies met the review criteria for study quality and were included in the data extraction and analysis. The studies examined a range of programs delivered in diverse settings. Most studies had mixed-gender and predominately African-American research samples (70% and 51%, respectively). Randomized controlled trials accounted for the large majority (87%) of included studies. Most studies (76%) included multiple follow-ups, with sample sizes ranging from 62 to 5,244. Analysis of the study impact findings identified 31 programs with evidence of effectiveness. Research conducted since the late 1980s has identified more than two dozen teen pregnancy and STI prevention programs with evidence of effectiveness. Key strengths of this research are the large number of randomized controlled trials, the common use of multiple follow-up periods, and attention to a broad range of programs delivered in diverse settings. Two main gaps are a lack of replication studies and the need for more research on Latino youth and other high-risk populations. In addressing these gaps, researchers must overcome common limitations in study design, analysis, and reporting that have negatively affected prior research. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. All rights reserved.

Payments for Environmental Services in a Policymix: Spatial and Temporal Articulation in Mexico.

PubMed

Ezzine-de-Blas, Driss; Dutilly, Céline; Lara-Pulido, José-Alberto; Le Velly, Gwenolé; Guevara-Sanginés, Alejando

2016-01-01

Government based Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) have been criticized for not maximizing environmental effectiveness through appropriate targeting, while instead prioritizing social side-objectives. In Mexico, existing literature on how the Payments for Ecosystem Services-Hydrological program (PSA-H) has targeted deforestation and forest degradation shows that both the process of identifying the eligible areas and the choice of the selection criteria for enrolling forest parcels have been under the influence of competing agendas. In the present paper we study the influence of the PSA-H multi-level governance on the environmental effectiveness of the program-the degree to which forest at high risk of deforestation is enrolled- building from a "policyscape" framework. In particular, we combine governance analysis with two distinct applications of the policyscape framework: First, at national level we assess the functional overlap between the PSA-H and other environmental and rural programs with regard to the risk of deforestation. Second, at regional level in the states of Chiapas and Yucatan, we describe the changing policy agenda and the role of technical intermediaries in defining the temporal spatialization of the PSA-H eligible and enrolled areas with regard to key socio-economic criteria. We find that, although at national level the PSA-H program has been described as coping with both social and environmental indicators thanks to successful adaptive management, our analysis show that PSA-H is mainly found in communities where deforestation risk is low and in combination with other environmental programs (protected areas and forest management programs). Such inertia is reinforced at regional level as a result of the eligible areas' characteristics and the behaviour of technical intermediaries, which seek to minimise transaction costs and sources of uncertainty. Our project-specific analysis shows the importance of integrating the governance of a program in the policyscape framework as a way to better systematize complex interactions at different spatial and institutional scales between policies and landscape characteristics.

C-17 Centerlining - Analysis of Paratrooper Trajectory

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

Linear Regression Models. 4th ed. McGraw Hill, 2004. Kuntavanish, Mark. Program Engineer for C-17 System Program Office. Briefing to US Army...Airdrop Risk Assessment Using Bootstrap Sampling, MS AFIT Thesis AFIT/GOR/ENS/96D-01, Dec 1996. Kutner, Michael, C. Nachtsheim, and J. Neter. Applied

Risk factors for hearing loss in infants under universal hearing screening program in Northern Thailand

PubMed Central

Poonual, Watcharapol; Navacharoen, Niramon; Kangsanarak, Jaran; Namwongprom, Sirianong

2016-01-01

Objective To define the risk factors for hearing loss in infants (aged 3 months) under universal hearing screening program. Materials and methods A total of 3,120 infants (aged 3 months) who underwent hearing screening using a universal hearing screening program using automated otoacoustic emission test between November 1, 2010 and May 31, 2012 in Uttaradit Hospital, Buddhachinaraj Hospital, and Sawanpracharuk Hospital (tertiary hospitals) located in Northern Thailand were included in this prospective cohort study. Results Of the 3,120 infants, 135 (4.3%) were confirmed to have hearing loss with the conventional otoacoustic emission test. Five of these 135 infants (3.7%) with hearing loss showed test results consistent with auditory brainstem responses. From the univariable analysis, there were eleven potential risk factors associated with hearing deterioration. On multivariable analysis, the risk factors independently associated with hearing loss at 3 months were birth weight 1,500–2,500 g (risk ratio [RR] 1.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–2.6), APGAR score <6 at 5 minutes (RR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1–4.4), craniofacial anomalies (RR 2.5, 95% CI 1.6–4.2), sepsis (RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.0–3.2), and ototoxic exposure (RR 4.1, 95% CI 1.9–8.6). Conclusion This study concluded that low birth weight, APGAR score <6 at 5 minutes, craniofacial anomalies, sepsis, and ototoxic exposure are the risk factors for bilateral hearing loss in infants (aged 3 months) and proper tests should be performed to identify these risk factors. As an outcome, under the present circumstances, it is suggested that infirmary/physicians/general practitioners/health action centers/polyclinics should carry out universal hearing screening in all infants before 36 weeks. The public health policy of Thailand regarding a universal hearing screening program is important for the prevention of disability and to enhance people’s quality of life. PMID:26766912

Portfolio optimization by using linear programing models based on genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Hidayat, Y.; Lesmana, E.; Putra, A. S.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.

2018-01-01

In this paper, we discussed the investment portfolio optimization using linear programming model based on genetic algorithms. It is assumed that the portfolio risk is measured by absolute standard deviation, and each investor has a risk tolerance on the investment portfolio. To complete the investment portfolio optimization problem, the issue is arranged into a linear programming model. Furthermore, determination of the optimum solution for linear programming is done by using a genetic algorithm. As a numerical illustration, we analyze some of the stocks traded on the capital market in Indonesia. Based on the analysis, it is shown that the portfolio optimization performed by genetic algorithm approach produces more optimal efficient portfolio, compared to the portfolio optimization performed by a linear programming algorithm approach. Therefore, genetic algorithms can be considered as an alternative on determining the investment portfolio optimization, particularly using linear programming models.

Priority of a Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Preference Relation with a Normal Distribution in Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Wang, Lihong; Gong, Zaiwu

2017-10-10

As meteorological disaster systems are large complex systems, disaster reduction programs must be based on risk analysis. Consequently, judgment by an expert based on his or her experience (also known as qualitative evaluation) is an important link in meteorological disaster risk assessment. In some complex and non-procedural meteorological disaster risk assessments, a hesitant fuzzy linguistic preference relation (HFLPR) is often used to deal with a situation in which experts may be hesitant while providing preference information of a pairwise comparison of alternatives, that is, the degree of preference of one alternative over another. This study explores hesitation from the perspective of statistical distributions, and obtains an optimal ranking of an HFLPR based on chance-restricted programming, which provides a new approach for hesitant fuzzy optimisation of decision-making in meteorological disaster risk assessments.

Impacts of Abstinence Education on Teen Sexual Activity, Risk of Pregnancy, and Risk of Sexually Transmitted Diseases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trenholm, Christopher; Devaney, Barbara; Fortson, Kenneth; Clark, Melissa; Bridgespan, Lisa Quay; Wheeler, Justin

2008-01-01

This paper examines the impacts of four abstinence-only education programs on adolescent sexual activity and risks of pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Based on an experimental design, the impact analysis uses survey data collected in 2005 and early 2006 from more than 2,000 teens who had been randomly assigned to either a…

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis. 68.165 Section 68.165 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence...

RISKIND : an enhanced computer code for National Environmental Policy Act transportation consequence analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

The RISKIND computer program was developed for the analysis of radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) or other radioactive ...

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis. 68.165 Section 68.165 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence...

Spaceflight Radiation Health program at the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, A. Steve; Badhwar, Gautam D.; Golightly, Michael J.; Hardy, Alva C.; Konradi, Andrei; Yang, Tracy Chui-Hsu

1993-01-01

The Johnson Space Center leads the research and development activities that address the health effects of space radiation exposure to astronaut crews. Increased knowledge of the composition of the environment and of the biological effects of space radiation is required to assess health risks to astronaut crews. The activities at the Johnson Space Center range from quantification of astronaut exposures to fundamental research into the biological effects resulting from exposure to high energy particle radiation. The Spaceflight Radiation Health Program seeks to balance the requirements for operational flexibility with the requirement to minimize crew radiation exposures. The components of the space radiation environment are characterized. Current and future radiation monitoring instrumentation is described. Radiation health risk activities are described for current Shuttle operations and for research development program activities to shape future analysis of health risk.

Enhancing the Characterization of Epistemic Uncertainties in PM2.5 Risk Analyses.

PubMed

Smith, Anne E; Gans, Will

2015-03-01

The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) is a software tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that is widely used inside and outside of EPA to produce quantitative estimates of public health risks from fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ). This article discusses the purpose and appropriate role of a risk analysis tool to support risk management deliberations, and evaluates the functions of BenMAP in this context. It highlights the importance in quantitative risk analyses of characterization of epistemic uncertainty, or outright lack of knowledge, about the true risk relationships being quantified. This article describes and quantitatively illustrates sensitivities of PM2.5 risk estimates to several key forms of epistemic uncertainty that pervade those calculations: the risk coefficient, shape of the risk function, and the relative toxicity of individual PM2.5 constituents. It also summarizes findings from a review of U.S.-based epidemiological evidence regarding the PM2.5 risk coefficient for mortality from long-term exposure. That review shows that the set of risk coefficients embedded in BenMAP substantially understates the range in the literature. We conclude that BenMAP would more usefully fulfill its role as a risk analysis support tool if its functions were extended to better enable and prompt its users to characterize the epistemic uncertainties in their risk calculations. This requires expanded automatic sensitivity analysis functions and more recognition of the full range of uncertainty in risk coefficients. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

2nd Generation RLV Risk Definition Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Robert M.; Stucker, Mark (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The 2nd Generation RLV Risk Reduction Mid-Term Report summarizes the status of Kelly Space & Technology's activities during the first two and one half months of the program. This report was presented to the cognoscente Contracting Officer's Technical Representative (COTR) and selected Marshall Space Flight Center staff members on 26 September 2000. The report has been approved and is distributed on CD-ROM (as a PowerPoint file) in accordance with the terms of the subject contract, and contains information and data addressing the following: (1) Launch services demand and requirements; (2) Architecture, alternatives, and requirements; (3) Costs, pricing, and business cases analysis; (4) Commercial financing requirements, plans, and strategy; (5) System engineering processes and derived requirements; and (6) RLV system trade studies and design analysis.

Emotionally Troubled Teens' Help-Seeking Behaviors: An Evaluation of Surviving the Teens® Suicide Prevention and Depression Awareness Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strunk, Catherine M.; Sorter, Michael T.; Ossege, Julianne; King, Keith A.

2014-01-01

Many school-based suicide prevention programs do not show a positive impact on help-seeking behaviors among emotionally troubled teens despite their being at high risk for suicide. This study is a secondary analysis of the Surviving the Teens® program evaluation to determine its effect on help-seeking behaviors among troubled youth. Results showed…

Cost Estimation and Control for Flight Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammond, Walter E.; Vanhook, Michael E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Good program management practices, cost analysis, cost estimation, and cost control for aerospace flight systems are interrelated and depend upon each other. The best cost control process cannot overcome poor design or poor systems trades that lead to the wrong approach. The project needs robust Technical, Schedule, Cost, Risk, and Cost Risk practices before it can incorporate adequate Cost Control. Cost analysis both precedes and follows cost estimation -- the two are closely coupled with each other and with Risk analysis. Parametric cost estimating relationships and computerized models are most often used. NASA has learned some valuable lessons in controlling cost problems, and recommends use of a summary Project Manager's checklist as shown here.

Resolution of an uncertain closed-loop logistics model: an application to fuzzy linear programs with risk analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Hsiao-Fan; Hsu, Hsin-Wei

2010-11-01

With the urgency of global warming, green supply chain management, logistics in particular, has drawn the attention of researchers. Although there are closed-loop green logistics models in the literature, most of them do not consider the uncertain environment in general terms. In this study, a generalized model is proposed where the uncertainty is expressed by fuzzy numbers. An interval programming model is proposed by the defined means and mean square imprecision index obtained from the integrated information of all the level cuts of fuzzy numbers. The resolution for interval programming is based on the decision maker (DM)'s preference. The resulting solution provides useful information on the expected solutions under a confidence level containing a degree of risk. The results suggest that the more optimistic the DM is, the better is the resulting solution. However, a higher risk of violation of the resource constraints is also present. By defining this probable risk, a solution procedure was developed with numerical illustrations. This provides a DM trade-off mechanism between logistic cost and the risk. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated Safety Risk Reduction Approach to Enhancing Human-Rated Spaceflight Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikula, J. F. Kip

2005-12-01

This paper explores and defines the current accepted concept and philosophy of safety improvement based on a Reliability enhancement (called here Reliability Enhancement Based Safety Theory [REBST]). In this theory a Reliability calculation is used as a measure of the safety achieved on the program. This calculation may be based on a math model or a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the system, or on an Event Tree Analysis (ETA) of the system's operational mission sequence. In each case, the numbers used in this calculation are hardware failure rates gleaned from past similar programs. As part of this paper, a fictional but representative case study is provided that helps to illustrate the problems and inaccuracies of this approach to safety determination. Then a safety determination and enhancement approach based on hazard, worst case analysis, and safety risk determination (called here Worst Case Based Safety Theory [WCBST]) is included. This approach is defined and detailed using the same example case study as shown in the REBST case study. In the end it is concluded that an approach combining the two theories works best to reduce Safety Risk.

Evaluation of a comprehensive employee wellness program at an organization with a consumer-directed health plan.

PubMed

Burton, Wayne N; Chen, Chin-Yu; Li, Xingquan; Schultz, Alyssa B; Kasiarz, David; Edington, Dee W

2014-04-01

Consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) are popular among employers in the United States. This study examined an employee wellness program and its association with employee health in an organization that recently initiated a CDHP. This retrospective observational analysis compared the health risks, employer-paid health care costs, and short-term disability absences of employees of a large financial services corporation from 2009 to 2010. The two-time health risk appraisal participants had a significant improvement in the percentage of employees in the overall low-risk category. The average annual employer-paid medical and pharmacy costs did not significantly change. For employees who improved their health risk category, there was a commensurate change in costs and absences. In a difficult economic climate, this organization began a health promotion program for employees as well as a new CDHP benefit structure. No short-term reduction in health care usage or overall health status was observed.

Continuous Risk Management at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammer, Theodore F.; Rosenberg, Linda

1999-01-01

NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions. This risk management structure of functions has been taught to projects at all NASA Centers and is being successfully implemented on many projects. This presentation will give project managers the information they need to understand if risk management is to be effectively implemented on their projects at a cost they can afford.

Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA): A Bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a bottom-up analytical process that identifies process hazards, which helps managers understand vulnerabilities of systems, as well as assess and mitigate risk. It is one of several engineering tools and techniques available to program and project managers aimed at increasing the likelihood of safe and successful NASA programs and missions. This bibliography references 465 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, failure modes or failure analysis, in either the basic index of the major subject terms.

Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

2014-11-01

As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe themore » RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.« less

40 CFR 60.4805 - What is a siting analysis?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... siting analysis must consider air pollution control alternatives that minimize, on a site-specific basis, to the maximum extent practicable, potential risks to public health or the environment, including... Section 60.4805 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS...

40 CFR 60.4805 - What is a siting analysis?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... siting analysis must consider air pollution control alternatives that minimize, on a site-specific basis, to the maximum extent practicable, potential risks to public health or the environment, including... Section 60.4805 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS...

40 CFR 60.4805 - What is a siting analysis?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... siting analysis must consider air pollution control alternatives that minimize, on a site-specific basis, to the maximum extent practicable, potential risks to public health or the environment, including... Section 60.4805 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS...

Risk profile of breast cancer following atypical hyperplasia detected through organized screening.

PubMed

Buckley, Elizabeth; Sullivan, Tom; Farshid, Gelareh; Hiller, Janet; Roder, David

2015-06-01

Few population-based data are available indicating the breast cancer risk following detection of atypia within a breast screening program. Prospectively collected data from the South Australian screening program were linked with the state cancer registry. Absolute and relative breast cancer risk estimates were calculated for ADH and ALH separately, and by age at diagnosis and time since diagnosis. Post-hoc analysis was undertaken of the effect of family history on breast cancer risk. Women with ADH and ALH had an increase in relative risk for malignancy (ADH HR 2.81 [95% CI 1.72, 4.59] and (ALH HR 4.14 [95% CI 1.97, 8.69], respectively. Differences in risk profile according to time since diagnosis and age at diagnosis were not statistically significant. Estimates of the relative risk of breast cancer are necessary to inform decisions regarding clinical management and/or treatment of women with ADH and ALH. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adolescent Risk: The Co-Occurrence of Illness, Suicidality, and Substance Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Husler, Gebhard; Blakeney, Ronny; Werlen, Egon

2005-01-01

Illness is rarely considered a "risk factor" in adolescence. This study tests illness, suicidality and substance use as outcome measures in a path analysis of 1028 Swiss adolescents in secondary prevention programs. The model showed that negative mood (depression and anxiety) predicted two paths. One path led from negative mood to…

Abstracts and program proceedings of the 1994 meeting of the International Society for Ecological Modelling North American Chapter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kercher, J.R.

1994-06-01

This document contains information about the 1994 meeting of the International Society for Ecological Modelling North American Chapter. The topics discussed include: extinction risk assessment modelling, ecological risk analysis of uranium mining, impacts of pesticides, demography, habitats, atmospheric deposition, and climate change.

Getting Clean in a Drug Rehabilitation Program in Prison: A Grounded Theory Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Sharon; Ferguson, Neil

2005-01-01

High-risk drug use is prevalent among UK prison populations (Lipton, 1995) while recovery in prison is both complex and variable. Grounded theory methodology was employed to gain a greater understanding of the perceptions and conceptualisations of "risk," "need" and "motivation" in relation to prisoner drug abusing…

Risk analysis and bovine tuberculosis, a re-emerging zoonosis.

PubMed

Etter, Eric; Donado, Pilar; Jori, Ferran; Caron, Alexandre; Goutard, Flavie; Roger, François

2006-10-01

The widespread of immunodeficiency with AIDS, the consequence of poverty on sanitary protection and information at both individual and state levels lead control of tuberculosis (TB) to be one of the priorities of World Health Organization programs. The impact of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) on humans is poorly documented. However, BTB remains a major problem for livestock in developing countries particularly in Africa and wildlife is responsible for the failure of TB eradication programs. In Africa, the consumption of raw milk and raw meat, and the development of bushmeat consumption as a cheap source of proteins, represent one of the principal routes for human contaminations with BTB. The exploration of these different pathways using tools as participatory epidemiology allows the risk analysis of the impact of BTB on human health in Africa. This analysis represents a management support and decision tool in the study and the control of zoonotic BTB.

Impossible Certainty: Cost Risk Analysis for Air Force Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

the estimated cost of weapon systems , which typically take many years to acquire and remain in operation for a long time . To make those esti- mates... times , uncertain, undefined, or unknown when estimates are prepared. New system development may involve further uncer- tainty due to unproven or...risk (a system requiring more money to complete than was forecasted ) and opera- tional risk (a vital capability becoming unaffordable as the program

A Synthetic Vision Preliminary Integrated Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemm, Robert; Houser, Scott

2001-01-01

This report documents efforts to analyze a sample of aviation safety programs, using the LMI-developed integrated safety analysis tool to determine the change in system risk resulting from Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) technology implementation. Specifically, we have worked to modify existing system safety tools to address the safety impact of synthetic vision (SV) technology. Safety metrics include reliability, availability, and resultant hazard. This analysis of SV technology is intended to be part of a larger effort to develop a model that is capable of "providing further support to the product design and development team as additional information becomes available". The reliability analysis portion of the effort is complete and is fully documented in this report. The simulation analysis is still underway; it will be documented in a subsequent report. The specific goal of this effort is to apply the integrated safety analysis to SV technology. This report also contains a brief discussion of data necessary to expand the human performance capability of the model, as well as a discussion of human behavior and its implications for system risk assessment in this modeling environment.

Alzheimer disease is substantially preventable in the United States -- review of risk factors, therapy, and the prospects for an expert software system.

PubMed

Jansson, Erik T

2005-01-01

Epidemiology studies, including both regional incidence and the analysis of specific risk factors for Alzheimer's disease indicate that substantial prevention of the disease, in the 50-70 percent range, is a practical possibility for the United States. Epidemiology has identified a rich diversity of specific prevention strategies relating to nutrition, dietary supplements, lifestyle, food and environmental toxins, and in some cases medication, many of which have a capacity to reduce Alzheimer's risk by 50 percent or more. The interaction of these risk factors with brain biology is increasingly understood. In contrast, therapeutic strategies for un-prevented Alzheimer's generally prove incapable of delaying disease progression by more than 3-11 months, because extensive brain cell death occurs even in preclinical or mild cases. A public health program aimed at prevention can be fashioned with expert software packages, based on already identified risk factors. Such statistical analysis should allow the prediction of individual and group Alzheimer's risks of sufficient power to instruct the formulation of lifestyle, nutritional and environmental programs to substantially reduce disease incidence. A less satisfactory but complementary alternative is very early disease detection with therapeutic strategies focused on retardation of brain cell death, so that the person dies of another cause before the disease is clinically manifested.

Does Couple and Relationship Education Work for Individuals in Stepfamilies? A Meta-Analytic Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lucier-Greer, Mallory; Adler-Baeder, Francesca

2012-01-01

Recent meta-analytic efforts have documented how couple and relationship education (CRE) programs promote healthy relationship and family functioning. The current meta-analysis contributes to this body of literature by examining stepfamily couples, an at-risk, subpopulation of participants, and assessing the effectiveness of CRE programs for…

Constructing Reading: Building Conceptions of Literacy in a Volunteer Read-Aloud Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dawes, Erika Thulin

2007-01-01

This study describes the interactions of three adult-child reading partnerships in a program that matches corporate volunteers with "at risk" students for weekly hour-long story reading sessions. Using discourse analysis within a sociocultural framework, the researcher identified variation in the way these partners were constructing the act and…

A 2011 Risk/Benefit Analysis of the Anthrax Vaccine Immunization Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-10

filled with botulinum toxin, 10 with anthrax, and 2 with aflatoxin.‖18 In 1992, Ken Alibek, a senior Russian bioweapons program manager defected...William K. Honner, Rosha A. Loach , Cynthia A. Moore, and J. David Erickson. ―Birth Defects Among Infants Born to Women Who Received Anthrax Vaccine In

Effectiveness of a national cardiovascular disease risk assessment program (NHS Health Check): results after one year.

PubMed

Artac, Macide; Dalton, Andrew R H; Majeed, Azeem; Car, Josip; Millett, Christopher

2013-08-01

We aimed to assess whether the National Health Service (NHS) Health Check, a systematic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management program, was associated with reduction in CVD risk in attendees after one year. We extracted data from patients aged 40-74 years, with high estimated CVD risk, who were registered with general practices in a deprived, culturally diverse setting in England. We included 4748 patients at baseline (July 2008-November 2009), with 3712 at follow-up (December 2009-March 2011). We used a pre-post study design to assess changes in global CVD risk, individual CVD risk factors and statin prescription in patients with a complete and partial Health Check. There were significant reductions in mean CVD risk score (28.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI)=27.3-29.1 to 26.2%; 95% CI, 25.4-27.1), diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol levels and lipid ratios after one year in patients with a complete Health Check. Statin prescription increased from 14.0% (95% CI=11.9-16.0) to 60.6% (95% CI=57.7-63.5). The introduction of NHS Health Check was associated with significant but modest reductions in CVD risk among screened high-risk individuals. Further cost-effectiveness analysis and work accounting for uptake is required to assess whether the program can make significant changes to population health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Knowledge, behavioral practices, and experiences of outdoor fallers: Implications for prevention programs.

PubMed

Chippendale, Tracy; Raveis, Victoria

2017-09-01

Although the epidemiology and prevention of falls has been well studied, the focus has been on indoor rather than outdoor falls. Older adults' knowledge of outdoor risk factors and their outdoor fall prevention practices have not been examined. To fill this gap, and to inform the development of a prevention program, we sought to explore the experiences and fall prevention knowledge and practices of older adults who had sustained an outdoor fall. A cross-sectional study using random digit telephone dialing was used to survey community dwelling seniors (N=120) across the five boroughs of New York City. We used the Outdoor Falls Questionnaire (OFQ), a valid and reliable tool as the survey instrument. Perceived outdoor fall risks, strategies used for prevention, and outdoor fall experiences were examined. SPSS version 21 was used for descriptive analysis of participant characteristics and to determine frequencies of perceived outdoor fall risks and strategies used for prevention. Phenomenological analysis was used with the qualitative data. Qualitative and quantitative data were analyzed separately and a mixed methods matrix was used to interpret and integrate the findings. Analysis revealed diverse unmet education and training needs including the importance of using single vision glasses, understanding the fall risks associated with recreational areas and parking lots, safe outdoor walking strategies, safe carrying of items on level and uneven surfaces, as well as when walking up and down stairs, and safety in opening/closing doors. Study findings are informative for outdoor fall prevention programs as well as practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of School-Based Teen Pregnancy Prevention Programs in the USA: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Marseille, Elliot; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Biggs, M Antonia; P Miller, Amanda; Horvath, Hacsi; Lightfoot, Marguerita; Malekinejad, Mohsen; Kahn, James G

2018-05-01

School-based programs have been a mainstay of youth pregnancy prevention efforts in the USA. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess their effectiveness. Eligible studies evaluated the effect on pregnancy rates of programs delivered in elementary, middle, or high schools in the USA and Canada, published between January 1985 and September 2016. The primary outcome was pregnancy; secondary outcomes were delay in sexual initiation, condom use, and oral contraception use. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs with comparator groups were eligible. We developed a comprehensive search strategy, applied to major bibliographic databases, article bibliographies, gray literature, and contact with authors. We calculated risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each outcome and pooled data in random effects meta-analysis. We used Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) to assess evidence quality. Ten RCTs and 11 non-RCTs conducted from 1984 to 2016 yielded 30 unique pooled comparisons for pregnancy, of which 24 were not statistically significant. Six showed statistically significant changes in pregnancy rates: two with increased risk (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.02-1.65; and RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.10-1.75) and four with decreased risk ranging from RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.41-0.77, to RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.58-0.96. All studies were at high risk of bias, and the quality of evidence was low or very low. Identified evidence indicated no consistent difference in rates of pregnancies between intervention recipients and controls.

Provision of onsite HIV Services in Substance Use Disorder Treatment Programs: A Longitudinal Analysis.

PubMed

Aletraris, Lydia; Roman, Paul M

2015-10-01

The provision of HIV education and testing in substance use disorder (SUD) treatment programs is an important public health strategy for reducing HIV incidence. For many at-risk individuals, SUD treatment represents the primary point of access for testing and receiving HIV-related services. This study uses two waves of nationally representative data of 265 privately-funded SUD treatment programs in the U.S. to examine organizational and patient characteristics associated with offering a dedicated HIV/AIDS treatment track, onsite HIV/AIDS support groups, and onsite HIV testing. Our longitudinal analysis indicated that the majority of treatment programs reported providing education and prevention services, but there was a small, yet significant, decline in the number of programs providing these services. Programs placed more of an emphasis on providing information on the transmission of HIV rather than on acquiring risk-reduction skills. There was a notable and significant increase (from 26.0% to 31.7%) in programs that offered onsite HIV testing, including rapid HIV testing, and an increase in the percentage of patients who received testing in the programs. Larger programs were more likely to offer a dedicated HIV/AIDS treatment track and to offer onsite HIV/AIDS support groups, while accredited programs and programs with a medical infrastructure were more likely to provide HIV testing. The percentage of injection drug users was positively linked to the availability of specialized HIV/AIDS tracks and HIV/AIDS support groups, and the percentage of female clients was associated with the availability of onsite support groups. The odds of offering HIV/AIDS support groups were also greater in programs that had a dedicated LGBT track. The findings suggest that access to hospitals and medical care services is an effective way to facilitate adoption of HIV services and that programs are providing a needed service among a group of patients who have a heightened risk of HIV transmission. Nonetheless, the fact that fewer than one third of programs offered onsite testing, and, of the ones that did, fewer than one third of their patients received testing, raises concern in light of federal guidelines. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Replicating MISTERS: an epidemiological criminology framework analysis of a program for criminal justice-involved minority males in the community.

PubMed

Potter, Roberto Hugh; Akers, Timothy A; Bowman, Daniel Richard

2013-01-01

The Men in STD Training and Empowerment Research Study (MISTERS) program and epidemiological criminology began their development in Atlanta at about the same time. MISTERS focuses on men recently released from jail to reduce both HIV/STD and crime-related risk factors through a brief educational intervention. This article examines ways in which MISTERS and epidemiological criminology have been used to inform one another in the replication of the MISTERS program in Orange County, Florida. Data from 110 MISTERS participants during the first 10 months of operation are analyzed to examine the overlapping occurrence of health and criminal risk behaviors in the men's lives. This provides a test of core hypotheses from the epidemiological criminology framework. This article also examines application of the epidemiological criminology framework to develop interventions to address health and crime risk factors simultaneously in Criminal Justice-Involved populations in the community.

Informing Comprehensive HIV Prevention: A Situational Analysis of the HIV Prevention and Care Context, North West Province South Africa

PubMed Central

Lippman, Sheri A.; Treves-Kagan, Sarah; Gilvydis, Jennifer M.; Naidoo, Evasen; Khumalo-Sakutukwa, Gertrude; Darbes, Lynae; Raphela, Elsie; Ntswane, Lebogang; Barnhart, Scott

2014-01-01

Objective Building a successful combination prevention program requires understanding the community’s local epidemiological profile, the social community norms that shape vulnerability to HIV and access to care, and the available community resources. We carried out a situational analysis in order to shape a comprehensive HIV prevention program that address local barriers to care at multiple contextual levels in the North West Province of South Africa. Method The situational analysis was conducted in two sub-districts in 2012 and guided by an adaptation of WHO’s Strategic Approach, a predominantly qualitative method, including observation of service delivery points and in-depth interviews and focus groups with local leaders, providers, and community members, in order to recommend context-specific HIV prevention strategies. Analysis began during fieldwork with nightly discussions of findings and continued with coding original textual data from the fieldwork notebooks and a select number of recorded interviews. Results We conducted over 200 individual and group interviews and gleaned four principal social barriers to HIV prevention and care, including: HIV fatalism, traditional gender norms, HIV-related stigma, and challenges with communication around HIV, all of which fuel the HIV epidemic. At the different levels of response needed to stem the epidemic, we found evidence of national policies and programs that are mitigating the social risk factors but little community-based responses that address social risk factors to HIV. Conclusions Understanding social and structural barriers to care helped shape our comprehensive HIV prevention program, which address the four ‘themes’ identified into each component of the program. Activities are underway to engage communities, offer community-based testing in high transmission areas, community stigma reduction, and a positive health, dignity and prevention program for stigma reduction and improve communication skills. The situational analysis process successfully shaped key programmatic decisions and cultivated a deeper collaboration with local stakeholders to support program implementation. PMID:25028976

Informing comprehensive HIV prevention: a situational analysis of the HIV prevention and care context, North West Province South Africa.

PubMed

Lippman, Sheri A; Treves-Kagan, Sarah; Gilvydis, Jennifer M; Naidoo, Evasen; Khumalo-Sakutukwa, Gertrude; Darbes, Lynae; Raphela, Elsie; Ntswane, Lebogang; Barnhart, Scott

2014-01-01

Building a successful combination prevention program requires understanding the community's local epidemiological profile, the social community norms that shape vulnerability to HIV and access to care, and the available community resources. We carried out a situational analysis in order to shape a comprehensive HIV prevention program that address local barriers to care at multiple contextual levels in the North West Province of South Africa. The situational analysis was conducted in two sub-districts in 2012 and guided by an adaptation of WHO's Strategic Approach, a predominantly qualitative method, including observation of service delivery points and in-depth interviews and focus groups with local leaders, providers, and community members, in order to recommend context-specific HIV prevention strategies. Analysis began during fieldwork with nightly discussions of findings and continued with coding original textual data from the fieldwork notebooks and a select number of recorded interviews. We conducted over 200 individual and group interviews and gleaned four principal social barriers to HIV prevention and care, including: HIV fatalism, traditional gender norms, HIV-related stigma, and challenges with communication around HIV, all of which fuel the HIV epidemic. At the different levels of response needed to stem the epidemic, we found evidence of national policies and programs that are mitigating the social risk factors but little community-based responses that address social risk factors to HIV. Understanding social and structural barriers to care helped shape our comprehensive HIV prevention program, which address the four 'themes' identified into each component of the program. Activities are underway to engage communities, offer community-based testing in high transmission areas, community stigma reduction, and a positive health, dignity and prevention program for stigma reduction and improve communication skills. The situational analysis process successfully shaped key programmatic decisions and cultivated a deeper collaboration with local stakeholders to support program implementation.

Risk assessment and risk management at the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA): a perspective on the monitoring of foods for chemical residues.

PubMed

Bietlot, Henri P; Kolakowski, Beata

2012-08-01

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) uses 'Ranked Risk Assessment' (RRA) to prioritize chemical hazards for inclusion in monitoring programmes or method development projects based on their relative risk. The relative risk is calculated for a chemical by scoring toxicity and exposure in the 'risk model scoring system' of the Risk Priority Compound List (RPCL). The relative ranking and the risk management options are maintained and updated in the RPCL. The ranking may be refined by the data generated by the sampling and testing programs. The two principal sampling and testing programmes are the National Chemical Residue Monitoring Program (NCRMP) and the Food Safety Action Plan (FSAP). The NCRMP sampling plans focus on the analysis of federally registered products (dairy, eggs, honey, meat and poultry, fresh and processed fruit and vegetable commodities, and maple syrup) for residues of veterinary drugs, pesticides, environmental contaminants, mycotoxins, and metals. The NCRMP is complemented by the Food Safety Action Plan (FSAP) targeted surveys. These surveys focus on emerging chemical hazards associated with specific foods or geographical regions for which applicable maximum residue limits (MRLs) are not set. The data from the NCRMP and FSAP also influence the risk management (follow-up) options. Follow-up actions vary according to the magnitude of the health risk, all with the objective of preventing any repeat occurrence to minimize consumer exposure to a product representing a potential risk to human health. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2012. Drug Testing and Analysis © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Managing Risk for Cassini During Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MOandDA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witkowski, Mona M.

2002-01-01

A Risk Management Process has been tailored for Cassini that not only satisfies the requirements of NASA and JPL, but also allows the Program to proactively identify and assess risks that threaten mission objectives. Cassini Risk Management is a team effort that involves both management and engineering staff. The process is managed and facilitated by the Mission Assurance Manager (MAM), but requires regular interactions with Program Staff and team members to instill the risk management philosophy into the day to day mission operations. While Risk Management is well defined for projects in the development phase, it is a relatively new concept for Mission Operations. The Cassini team has embraced this process and has begun using it in an effective, proactive manner, to ensure mission success. It is hoped that the Cassini Risk Management Process will form the basis by which risk management is conducted during MO&DA on future projects. proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working proactive in identifying, assessing and mitigating risks before they become problems. Cost ehtiveness is achieved by: Comprehensively identifying risks Rapidly assessing which risks require the expenditure of pruject cewums Taking early actions to mitigate these risks Iterating the process frequently, to be responsive to the dynamic internal and external environments The Cassini Program has successfully implemented a Risk Management Process for mission operations, The initial SRL has been developed and input into he online tool. The Risk Management webbased system has been rolled out for use by the flight team and risk owners we working put into place will become visible and will be illusmted in future papers.

Managing Risk to Ensure a Successful Cassini/Huygens Saturn Orbit Insertion (SOI)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witkowski, Mona M.; Huh, Shin M.; Burt, John B.; Webster, Julie L.

2004-01-01

I. Design: a) S/C designed to be largely single fault tolerant; b) Operate in flight demonstrated envelope, with margin; and c) Strict compliance with requirements & flight rules. II. Test: a) Baseline, fault & stress testing using flight system testbeds (H/W & S/W); b) In-flight checkout & demos to remove first time events. III. Failure Analysis: a) Critical event driven fault tree analysis; b) Risk mitigation & development of contingencies. IV) Residual Risks: a) Accepted pre-launch waivers to Single Point Failures; b) Unavoidable risks (e.g. natural disaster). V) Mission Assurance: a) Strict process for characterization of variances (ISAs, PFRs & Waivers; b) Full time Mission Assurance Manager reports to Program Manager: 1) Independent assessment of compliance with institutional standards; 2) Oversight & risk assessment of ISAs, PFRs & Waivers etc.; and 3) Risk Management Process facilitator.

Clinical and cost outcomes of multifactorial, cardiovascular risk management interventions in worksites: a comprehensive review and analysis.

PubMed

Pelletier, K R

1997-12-01

This paper is a critical review of the clinical and cost outcome evaluation studies of multifactorial, comprehensive, cardiovascular risk management programs in worksites. A comprehensive international literature search conducted under the auspices of the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute identified 17 articles based on 12 studies that examined the clinical outcomes of multifactorial, comprehensive programs. These articles were identified through MEDLINE, manual searches of recent journals, and through direct inquiries to worksite health promotion researchers. All studies were conducted between 1978 and 1995, with 1978 being the date of the first citation of a methodologically rigorous evaluation. Of the 12 research studies, only 8 utilized the worksite as both the unit of assignment and as the unit of analysis. None of the studies analyzed adequately for cost effectiveness. Given this limitation, this review briefly considers the relevant worksite research that has demonstrated cost outcomes. Worksite-based, multifactorial cardiovascular intervention programs reviewed for this article varied widely in the comprehensiveness, intensity, and duration of both the interventions and evaluations. Results from randomized trials suggest that providing opportunities for individualized, cardiovascular risk reduction counseling for high-risk employees within the context of comprehensive programming may be the critical component of an effective worksite intervention. Despite the many limitations of the current methodologies of the 12 studies, the majority of the research to date indicates the following: (1) favorable clinical and cost outcomes; (2) that more recent and more rigorously designed research tends to support rather than refute earlier and less rigorously designed studies; and (3) that rather than interpreting the methodological flaws and diversity as inherently negative, one may consider it as indicative of a robust phenomena evident in many types of worksites, with diverse employees, differing interventions, and varying degrees of methodological sophistication. Results of these studies reviewed provide both cautious optimism about the effectiveness of these worksite programs and insights regarding the essential components and characteristics of successful programs.

Ares Project Technology Assessment: Approach and Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hueter, Uwe; Tyson, Richard

2010-01-01

Technology assessments provide a status of the development maturity of specific technologies. Along with benefit analysis, the risks the project assumes can be quantified. Normally due to budget constraints, the competing technologies are prioritized and decisions are made which ones to fund. A detailed technology development plan is produced for the selected technologies to provide a roadmap to reach the desired maturity by the project s critical design review. Technology assessments can be conducted for both technology only tasks or for product development programs. This paper is primarily biased toward the product development programs. The paper discusses the Ares Project s approach to technology assessment. System benefit analysis, risk assessment, technology prioritization, and technology readiness assessment are addressed. A description of the technology readiness level tool being used is provided.

The Ecology of Early Childhood Risk: A Canonical Correlation Analysis of Children’s Adjustment, Family, and Community Context in a High-Risk Sample

PubMed Central

Aiyer, Sophie M.; Wilson, Melvin N.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Dishion, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

The ecology of the emergence of psycho-pathology in early childhood is often approached by the analysis of a limited number of contextual risk factors. In the present study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of ecological risk by conducting a canonical correlation analysis of 13 risk factors at child age 2 and seven narrow-band scales of internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors at child age 4, using a sample of 364 geographically and ethnically diverse, disadvantaged primary caregivers, alternative caregivers, and preschool-age children. Participants were recruited from Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children sites and were screened for family risk. Canonical correlation analysis revealed that (1) a first latent combination of family and individual risks of caregivers predicted combinations of child emotional and behavioral problems, and that (2) a second latent combination of contextual and structural risks predicted child somatic complaints. Specifically, (1) the combination of chaotic home, conflict with child, parental depression, and parenting hassles predicted a co-occurrence of internalizing and externalizing behaviors, and (2) the combination of father absence, perceived discrimination, neighborhood danger, and fewer children living in the home predicted child somatic complaints. The research findings are discussed in terms of the development of psychopathology, as well as the potential prevention needs of families in high-risk contexts. PMID:23700232

The role of school engagement in preventing adolescent delinquency and substance use: a survival analysis.

PubMed

Li, Yibing; Zhang, Wei; Liu, Jianjun; Arbeit, Miriam R; Schwartz, Seth J; Bowers, Edmond P; Lerner, Richard M

2011-12-01

The present study was designed to examine the effects of school engagement on risky behavior in adolescence. Using data from the 4-H Study of Positive Youth Development (PYD), a longitudinal study of U.S. adolescents, discrete-time survival analyses were conducted to assess the effect of behavioral and emotional school engagement on the initiation of drug use and delinquency. The current analyses used seven years of longitudinal data collected from youth and their parents. Results of discrete-time survival analysis indicated that, controlling for demographic variables, higher degrees of behavioral and emotional school engagement predicted a significantly lower risk of substance use and involvement in delinquency. Substance use prevention programs and other health-risk reduction programs should include components (i.e., adolescents' participation in and emotional attachment to school) to capitalize on the protective role of the school context against youth risk behavior. Copyright © 2011 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of an injury awareness education program on risk-taking behaviors and injuries in juvenile justice offenders: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Ho, Kwok M; Litton, Edward; Geelhoed, Elizabeth; Gope, Monica; Burrell, Maxine; Coribel, Jacqueline; McDowall, Angela; Rao, Sudhakar

2012-01-01

Risk-taking behavior is a leading cause of injury and death amongst young people. This was a retrospective cohort study on the effectiveness of a 1-day youth injury awareness education program (Prevent Alcohol and Risk-related Trauma in Youth, P.A.R.T.Y.) program in reducing risk taking behaviors and injuries of juvenille justice offenders in Western Australia. Of the 3659 juvenile justice offenders convicted by the court magistrates between 2006 and 2010, 225 were referred to the P.A.R.T.Y. education program. In a before and after survey of these 225 participants, a significant proportion of them stated that they were more receptive to modifying their risk-taking behavior (21% before vs. 57% after). Using data from the Western Australia Police and Department of Health, the incidence of subsequent offences and injuries of all juvenile justice offenders was assessed. The incidence of subsequent traffic or violence-related offences was significantly lower for those who had attended the program compared to those who did not (3.6% vs. 26.8%; absolute risk reduction [ARR] = 23.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 19.9%-25.8%; number needed to benefit = 4.3, 95%CI 3.9-5.1; p = 0.001), as were injuries leading to hospitalization (0% vs. 1.6% including 0.2% fatality; ARR = 1.6%, 95%CI 1.2%-2.1%) and alcohol or drug-related offences (0% vs. 2.4%; ARR 2.4%, 95%CI 1.9%-2.9%). In the multivariate analysis, only P.A.R.T.Y. education program attendance (odds ratio [OR] 0.10, 95%CI 0.05-0.21) and a higher socioeconomic background (OR 0.97 per decile increment in Index of Relative Socioeconomic Advantage and Disadvantage, 95%CI 0.93-0.99) were associated with a lower risk of subsequent traffic or violence-related offences. Participation in an injury education program involving real-life trauma scenarios was associated with a reduced subsequent risk of committing violence- or traffic-related offences, injuries, and death for juvenille justice offenders.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Early Literacy Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simon, Jessica

2011-01-01

Success in early literacy activities is associated with improved educational outcomes, including reduced dropout risk, in-grade retention, and special education referrals. When considering programs that will work for a particular school and context; cost-effectiveness analysis may provide useful information for decision makers. The study…

CatReg Software for Categorical Regression Analysis (May 2016)

EPA Science Inventory

CatReg 3.0 is a Microsoft Windows enhanced version of the Agency’s categorical regression analysis (CatReg) program. CatReg complements EPA’s existing Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS) by greatly enhancing a risk assessor’s ability to determine whether data from separate toxicologic...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brandt, C.C.; Benson, S.B.; Beeler, D.A.

The Clinch River Remedial Investigation (CRRI) is designed to address the transport, fate, and distribution of waterborne contaminants (radionuclides, metals, and organic compounds) released from the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) and to assess potential risks to human health and the environment associated with these contaminants. The remedial investigation is entering Phase 2, which has the following items as its objectives: define the nature and extent of the contamination in areas downstream from the DOE ORR, evaluate the human health and ecological risks posed by these contaminants, and perform preliminary identification and evaluation of potential remediationmore » alternatives. This plan describes the requirements, responsibilities, and roles of personnel during sampling, analysis, and data review for the Clinch River Environmental Restoration Program (CR-ERP). The purpose of the plan is to formalize the process for obtaining analytical services, tracking sampling and analysis documentation, and assessing the overall quality of the CR-ERP data collection program to ensure that it will provide the necessary building blocks for the program decision-making process.« less

School Mental Health Early Interventions and Academic Outcomes for At-Risk High School Students: A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iachini, Aidyn L.; Brown, Elizabeth Levine; Ball, Annahita; Gibson, Jennifer E.; Lize, Steven E.

2015-01-01

The current educational policy context in the United States necessitates that school-based programs prioritize students' academic outcomes. This review examined the quantitative research on school mental health (SMH) early interventions and academic outcomes for at-risk high school students. Seven articles met the inclusion criteria for this…

Influence of a Substance-Abuse-Prevention Curriculum on Violence-Related Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simon, Thomas R.; Sussman, Steve; Dahlberg, Linda L.; Dent, Clyde W.

2002-01-01

Examined the impact of a school-based substance abuse prevention program on alternative high school students' risk for violence. Analysis of students followed over 12 months indicated that there was a higher risk for victimization among male control students. No intervention effect was observed for female students or for perpetration among males.…

Absenteeism and Truancy: Risk, Protection, and Best Practice Implications for School Social Workers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Teasley, Martell L.

2004-01-01

The author discusses the context in which absenteeism and truancy occur through an analysis of risk and protective mechanisms and suggests best practice methods based on a review of literature and research on several successful absenteeism and truancy prevention and reduction programs. The author suggests ways that school social workers can…

The Role of Alcohol Use during Sexual Situations in the Relationship between Sexual Revictimization and Women’s Intentions to Engage in Unprotected Sex

PubMed Central

Parkhill, Michele R.; Norris, Jeanette; Cue Davi, Kelly

2015-01-01

Research has demonstrated relationships among childhood sexual abuse, adult sexual assault, and sexual risk taking. This study proposes that one mechanism through which the victimization-sexual risk taking relationship works is through an increased likelihood of drinking during sexual situations. Using path analysis, the current study explores this hypothesis in a sample of 230 women. The model illustrates that women with a history of child and adult sexual victimization reported greater intentions to engage in unprotected sex and that this relationship is in part accounted for by an increased likelihood of drinking in sexual situations. The results suggest that sexual risk reduction programs and sexual assault treatment programs should educate women about the alcohol-involved sexual risk taking that often follows sexual assault victimization. PMID:25069152

The Development of Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Simulations for Inclusion in Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization Frameworks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffrey C. Joe; Diego Mandelli; Ronald L. Boring

2015-07-01

The United States Department of Energy is sponsoring the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program, which has the overall objective of supporting the near-term and the extended operation of commercial nuclear power plants. One key research and development (R&D) area in this program is the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization pathway, which combines probabilistic risk simulation with thermohydraulic simulation codes to define and manage safety margins. The R&D efforts to date, however, have not included robust simulations of human operators, and how the reliability of human performance or lack thereof (i.e., human errors) can affect risk-margins and plant performance. This paper describesmore » current and planned research efforts to address the absence of robust human reliability simulations and thereby increase the fidelity of simulated accident scenarios.« less

A Correlational Study of a Reading Comprehension Program and Attrition Rates of ESL Nursing Students in Texas.

PubMed

Donnell, Wendy M

The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between English as a second language (ESL), a reading comprehension program, and attrition rates of nursing students. Higher attrition rates of ESL nursing students are an assumption, seemingly based on anecdotal evidence. Data reflecting ESL student attrition should be measured and analyzed so that students can be identified prior to attrition. A secondary analysis of a large database of 27 initial licensure programs in Texas was completed. Data analysis identified that ESL students who used a reading comprehension program were almost twice as likely to be off track or out of the program as ESL students who did not use the program. Nurse educators need to evaluate student profile characteristics in a comprehensive way when determining risk of attrition.

Pain management and opioid risk mitigation in the military.

PubMed

Sharpe Potter, Jennifer; Bebarta, Vikhyat S; Marino, Elise N; Ramos, Rosemarie G; Turner, Barbara J

2014-05-01

Opioid analgesics misuse is a significant military health concern recognized as a priority issue by military leadership. Opioids are among those most commonly prescribed medications in the military for pain management. The military has implemented opioid risk mitigation strategies, including the Sole Provider Program and the Controlled Drug Management Analysis and Reporting Tool, which are used to identify and monitor for risk and misuse. However, there are substantial opportunities to build on these existing systems to better ensure safer opioid prescribing and monitor for misuse. Opioid risk mitigation strategies implemented by the civilian sector include establishing clinical guidelines for opioid prescribing and prescription monitoring programs. These strategies may help to inform opioid risk mitigation in the military health system. Reducing the risk of opioid misuse and improving quality of care for our Warfighters is necessary. This must be done through evidence-based approaches with an investment in research to improve patient care and prevent opioid misuse as well as its sequelae. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

A web-based nutrition program reduces health care costs in employees with cardiac risk factors: before and after cost analysis.

PubMed

Sacks, Naomi; Cabral, Howard; Kazis, Lewis E; Jarrett, Kelli M; Vetter, Delia; Richmond, Russell; Moore, Thomas J

2009-10-23

Rising health insurance premiums represent a rapidly increasing burden on employer-sponsors of health insurance and their employees. Some employers have become proactive in managing health care costs by providing tools to encourage employees to directly manage their health and prevent disease. One example of such a tool is DASH for Health, an Internet-based nutrition and exercise behavior modification program. This program was offered as a free, opt-in benefit to US-based employees of the EMC Corporation. The aim was to determine whether an employer-sponsored, Internet-based diet and exercise program has an effect on health care costs. There were 15,237 total employees and spouses who were included in our analyses, of whom 1967 enrolled in the DASH for Health program (DASH participants). Using a retrospective, quasi-experimental design, study year health care costs among DASH participants and non-participants were compared, controlling for baseline year costs, risk, and demographic variables. The relationship between how often a subject visited the DASH website and health care costs also was examined. These relationships were examined among all study subjects and among a subgroup of 735 subjects with cardiovascular conditions (diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia). Multiple linear regression analysis examined the relationship of program use to health care costs, comparing study year costs among DASH participants and non-participants and then examining the effects of increased website use on health care costs. Analyses were repeated among the cardiovascular condition subgroups. Overall, program use was not associated with changes in health care costs. However, among the cardiovascular risk study subjects, health care costs were US$827 lower, on average, during the study year (P= .05; t(729) = 1.95). Among 1028 program users, increased website use was significantly associated with lower health care costs among those who visited the website at least nine times during the study year (US$14 decrease per visit; P = .04; t(1022) = 2.05), with annual savings highest among 80 program users with targeted conditions (US$55 decrease per visit; P < .001; t(74) = 2.71). An employer-sponsored, Internet-based diet and exercise program shows promise as a low-cost benefit that contributes to lower health care costs among persons at higher risk for above-average health care costs and utilization.

A Web-Based Nutrition Program Reduces Health Care Costs in Employees With Cardiac Risk Factors: Before and After Cost Analysis

PubMed Central

Cabral, Howard; Kazis, Lewis E; Jarrett, Kelli M; Vetter, Delia; Richmond, Russell; Moore, Thomas J

2009-01-01

Background Rising health insurance premiums represent a rapidly increasing burden on employer-sponsors of health insurance and their employees. Some employers have become proactive in managing health care costs by providing tools to encourage employees to directly manage their health and prevent disease. One example of such a tool is DASH for Health, an Internet-based nutrition and exercise behavior modification program. This program was offered as a free, opt-in benefit to US-based employees of the EMC Corporation. Objective The aim was to determine whether an employer-sponsored, Internet-based diet and exercise program has an effect on health care costs. Methods There were 15,237 total employees and spouses who were included in our analyses, of whom 1967 enrolled in the DASH for Health program (DASH participants). Using a retrospective, quasi-experimental design, study year health care costs among DASH participants and non-participants were compared, controlling for baseline year costs, risk, and demographic variables. The relationship between how often a subject visited the DASH website and health care costs also was examined. These relationships were examined among all study subjects and among a subgroup of 735 subjects with cardiovascular conditions (diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia). Multiple linear regression analysis examined the relationship of program use to health care costs, comparing study year costs among DASH participants and non-participants and then examining the effects of increased website use on health care costs. Analyses were repeated among the cardiovascular condition subgroups. Results Overall, program use was not associated with changes in health care costs. However, among the cardiovascular risk study subjects, health care costs were US$827 lower, on average, during the study year (P = .05; t 729 = 1.95). Among 1028 program users, increased website use was significantly associated with lower health care costs among those who visited the website at least nine times during the study year (US$14 decrease per visit; P = .04; t 1022 = 2.05), with annual savings highest among 80 program users with targeted conditions (US$55 decrease per visit; P < .001; t 74 = 2.71). Conclusions An employer-sponsored, Internet-based diet and exercise program shows promise as a low-cost benefit that contributes to lower health care costs among persons at higher risk for above-average health care costs and utilization. PMID:19861297

[Suicide risk factors in the professional military personnel in the Army of Serbia].

PubMed

Dedić, Gordana; Panić, Milivoje

2010-04-01

Recognition of suicide risk factors is important in taking adequate suicide preventive measures, Suicide Prevention Program for Professional Military Personnel (PMP) implemented in the Army of Serbia in 2003. The aim of our study was to establish suicide risk factors in PMP of the Army of Serbia. Analysis of suicide risk factors in PMP was carried out on the basis of data obtained by psychological suicide autopsy. The controls were demographically similar psychiatric outpatients with no history of suicidal behaviour. A descriptive statistics method was used for risk factors analysis. The t-test was used for testing statistical hypotheses. A total of 30 PMP, aged 22-49 years (30.53 +/- 6.24 on average) committed suicide within the period 1998-2007. Distal suicide risk factors in PMP were considered to be not being married, psychiatric heredity, having no outpatient psychiatric treatment, gambling, regular physical practice (bodybuilding), less transfer to a different post, low motivation for military service (p < 0.001), not having children, parental loss in early childhood, alcohol abuse (p < 0.005), low salary (p < 0.01) uncompleted military school, debts in the family (p < 0.05). The commonest proximal suicide risk factors were: actual family problems (36.6%), actual mental problems (13.3%), burnout (13.3%), negative balance of accounts (13.3%), professional problems (6.7%), behavioral model while for 10.0% PMP suicide risk factors could not be established. According to the presence of multiple suicide risk factors, Suicide Prevention Program for PMP in the Army of Serbia is directed to the prevention of both proximal and distal suicide risk factors.

Risk Management Implementation Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, Shayla L.

2004-01-01

Continuous Risk Management (CM) is a software engineering practice with processes, methods, and tools for managing risk in a project. It provides a controlled environment for practical decision making, in order to assess continually what could go wrong, determine which risk are important to deal with, implement strategies to deal with those risk and assure the measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. Continuous Risk Management provides many training workshops and courses to teach the staff how to implement risk management to their various experiments and projects. The steps of the CRM process are identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and control. These steps and the various methods and tools that go along with them, identification, and dealing with risk is clear-cut. The office that I worked in was the Risk Management Office (RMO). The RMO at NASA works hard to uphold NASA s mission of exploration and advancement of scientific knowledge and technology by defining and reducing program risk. The RMO is one of the divisions that fall under the Safety and Assurance Directorate (SAAD). I worked under Cynthia Calhoun, Flight Software Systems Engineer. My task was to develop a help screen for the Continuous Risk Management Implementation Tool (RMIT). The Risk Management Implementation Tool will be used by many NASA managers to identify, analyze, track, control, and communicate risks in their programs and projects. The RMIT will provide a means for NASA to continuously assess risks. The goals and purposes for this tool is to provide a simple means to manage risks, be used by program and project managers throughout NASA for managing risk, and to take an aggressive approach to advertise and advocate the use of RMIT at each NASA center.

Shuttle user analysis (study 2.2): Volume 3. Business Risk And Value of Operations in space (BRAVO). Part 4: Computer programs and data look-up

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Computer program listings as well as graphical and tabulated data needed by the analyst to perform a BRAVO analysis were examined. Graphical aid which can be used to determine the earth coverage of satellites in synchronous equatorial orbits was described. A listing for satellite synthesis computer program as well as a sample printout for the DSCS-11 satellite program and a listing of the symbols used in the program were included. The APL language listing for the payload program cost estimating computer program was given. This language is compatible with many of the time sharing remote terminals computers used in the United States. Data on the intelsat communications network was studied. Costs for telecommunications systems leasing, line of sight microwave relay communications systems, submarine telephone cables, and terrestrial power generation systems were also described.

Employment and the Risk of Domestic Abuse among Low-Income Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibson-Davis, Christina M.; Magnuson, Katherine; Gennetian, Lisa A.; Duncan, Greg J.

2005-01-01

This paper uses data from 2 randomized evaluations of welfare-to-work programs--the Minnesota Family Investment Program and the National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies--to estimate the effect of employment on domestic abuse among low-income single mothers. Unique to our analysis is the application of a 2-stage least squares method, in…

Analysis of the Special Studies Program Based on the Interviews of Its Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Esp, Barbarann; Torelli, Alexis

The special studies program at Hofstra University is designed for high school graduates applying to the university whose educational backgrounds require a more personalized approach to introductory college work. An attempt is made to minimize the risk of poor academic performance during the first year in college. A random sample of 24 students in…

Maternal Locus of Control and Developmental Gain Demonstrated by High Risk Infants: A Longitudinal Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maisto, Albert A.; German, Michael L.

1981-01-01

Short- and long-term effects of a parent-infant training program for biologically handicapped infants was evaluated in terms of maternal locus of control. Results indicated that maternal locus of control accounted for a substantial portion of the variance in the infants' developmental gains following the program intervention period. (Author/RH)

Risk Analysis of Loblolly Pine Controlled Mass Pollination Program

Treesearch

T.D. Byram; F.E. Bridgwater

1999-01-01

The economic success of controlled mass pollination (CMP) depends both upon the value of the genetic gain obtained and the cost per seed. Crossing the best six loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) parents currently available in each deployment region of the Western Gulf Forest Tree Improvement Program will produce seed with an average additional gain in mean...

78 FR 69602 - Foreign Supplier Verification Programs for Importers of Food for Humans and Animals; Extension of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-20

... ``Current Good Manufacturing Practice and Hazard Analysis and Risk-Based Preventive Controls for Food for... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration 21 CFR Part 1 [Docket No. FDA-2011-N-0143] RIN 0910-AG64 Foreign Supplier Verification Programs for Importers of Food for Humans and...

Opportunities for Cancer Prevention Using Employee Wellness Programs: The Case of Kansas State Employees

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hui, Siu-kuen Azor; Engelman, Kimberly; Shireman, Theresa I.; Hunt, Suzanne; Ellerbeck, Edward F.

2012-01-01

Background: The utility of employee wellness programs (EWPs) in cancer prevention and control is not well established. Purpose: This project is to determine the potential value of EWPs in preventing cancer by examining the characteristics of EWP participants and their prevalence of cancer risk factors. Methods: A secondary data analysis of health…

Economic Analysis of the Return-on-Investment of a Worksite Wellness Program for a Large Multistate Retail Grocery Organization.

PubMed

Light, Emily M W; Kline, Allison S; Drosky, Megan A; Chapman, Larry S

2015-08-01

The objective of this study is to measure the return on investment (ROI) of the Price Chopper/Golub Corporation employee population who participate in wellness programs available to them. Medical claims data, risk level, and presence of comorbidities such as diabetes and heart disease were compared in a matched retrospective cohort of participants and nonparticipants, with 2008, 2009, and 2010 serving as measurement years. Program costs and estimated savings were used to calculate an ROI of $4.33 for every dollar invested in wellness programs. Reductions in medical costs were observed at several risk and participation levels, with an average savings of $133 per participant and a 3-year savings estimate of $285,706. The positive ROI and savings estimate indicate that wellness interventions added economic value to Price Chopper/Golub Corporation.

A visual interface to computer programs for linkage analysis.

PubMed

Chapman, C J

1990-06-01

This paper describes a visual approach to the input of information about human families into computer data bases, making use of the GEM graphic interface on the Atari ST. Similar approaches could be used on the Apple Macintosh or on the IBM PC AT (to which it has been transferred). For occasional users of pedigree analysis programs, this approach has considerable advantages in ease of use and accessibility. An example of such use might be the analysis of risk in families with Huntington disease using linked RFLPs. However, graphic interfaces do make much greater demands on the programmers of these systems.

The positive effects of a peer-led intervention system for individuals with a risk of metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Sanee, Aree; Somrongthong, Ratana; Plianbangchang, Samlee

2017-01-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a major health risk in Thailand. Although it is reported that females have a higher rate of MetS than males, very few peer-led intervention studies have been conducted on specific groups, such as seamstresses, at risk of MetS. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of a peer-led intervention program on reducing MetS risk factors in individuals working in Thai Uniform Sewing Military Factories. A quasiexperimental program was introduced using a pre- and posttest design that was applied to female sewing factory workers selected for this research. All participants had at least one of the key MetS symptoms. The experimental group (N=50 participants) received 12 weekly peer-led individual support discussion sessions that included both dietary and physical activity (PA) advice and the control group (N=50 participants) followed their usual daily routines. The Student's t -test and the Pearson's chi-squared test were used to compare the differences of baseline data and analysis of variance was used for analysis of the data after intervention. The results showed that after 3 months of participation, when compared to the control group, the experimental group had significantly improved systolic blood pressure (BP) ( P =0.04), diastolic BP ( P <0.001), PA ( P =0.05), knowledge scores of MetS, perception of MetS and risk factors ( P <0.001), and stress assessment ( P =0.002). Waist circumference, body mass index, and Food Frequency Questionnaire score were not significantly different but still improved. Findings from this study suggest that a peer-led support program can be introduced as an effective means of improving the behaviors of mostly sedentary factory workers at risk of MetS caused by working habits that are detrimental to health.

Impact of the CHOICES Intervention in Preventing Alcohol-Exposed Pregnancies in American Indian Women.

PubMed

Hanson, Jessica D; Nelson, Morgan E; Jensen, Jamie L; Willman, Amy; Jacobs-Knight, Jacque; Ingersoll, Karen

2017-04-01

Fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) comprise a continuum of lifelong outcomes in those born prenatally exposed to alcohol. Although studies have shown no differences in rates by race, FASD is of particular concern for American Indian communities. One tribally run prevention program is the Oglala Sioux Tribe (OST) CHOICES Program, which is modeled after the evidence-based CHOICES program that was focused on preconceptional prevention of alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP) by reducing risky drinking in women at risk for pregnancy and/or preventing unintended pregnancy. The OST CHOICES Program was made culturally appropriate for American Indian women and implemented with 3 communities, 2 on the reservation and 1 off. Data on drinking, sexual activity, and contraception use were collected at baseline and 3 and 6 months postintervention. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, 1-way analysis of variance, and a random intercept generalized estimating equation model. A total of 193 nonpregnant American Indian women enrolled in the OST CHOICES Program, and all were at risk for AEP because of binge drinking and being at risk for an unintended pregnancy. Fifty-one percent of participants completed both 3- and 6-month follow-ups. Models showed a significant decrease in AEP risk from baseline at both 3- and 6-month follow-ups, indicating the significant impact of the OST CHOICES intervention. Women in the OST CHOICES Program were more likely to reduce their risk for AEP by utilizing contraception, rather than decreasing binge drinking. Even with minor changes to make the CHOICES intervention culturally and linguistically appropriate and the potential threats to program validity those changes entail, we found a significant impact in reducing AEP risk. This highlights the capacity for the CHOICES intervention to be implemented in a wide variety of settings and populations. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Risk Management Plan (RMP) Policies and Fact Sheets

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Includes information on the RMP audit program, how RMP affects small business, chemical emergency preparedness and prevention in Indian Country, OSHA standards and compliance, and Off-site Consequence Analysis access.

Group training programs and self-reported injury risk in female marathoners.

PubMed

Parker, Daniel T; Weitzenberg, Todd W; Amey, Annette L; Nied, Robert J

2011-11-01

To investigate the association of group training program (GTP) participation and other known risk factors with training and intrarace injury rates in female marathoners. Multivariate analysis of a self-reported questionnaire. Nike Women's Marathon, San Francisco, CA. Three hundred seventy-eight female marathoners. Training and intrarace injury rates, severity of these injuries, and satisfaction rates. Participants of GTPs were 2.36 times more likely to experience intrarace injury than non-GTP participants (P = 0.02). Runners with mild and severe injuries in the past 12 months preceding training were 3.54 and 5.08 times more likely to be injured during training (P < 0.0001 and P < 0.0001), respectively, and those with previous severe injury were 6.43 times more likely to experience severe training injury (P < 0.0001). Similarly, the risk for intrarace marathon injury was 3.79 and 7.09 times greater among those with mild and severe injuries during training (P = 0.003 and P < 0.0001), and the risk of severe intrarace injury was 5.63 times greater for those reporting a severe training injury (P < 0.001). Runners with previous marathon experience had a 0.53 risk of severe training injury compared with inexperienced runners (P = 0.04). Participants of GTPs were more likely to be injured during the marathon in multivariate analysis but were also more satisfied with training in bivariate analysis. Female runners with previous injury had a greater risk of future training and race injury, and severe previous injury was associated with severe training and intrarace injury. Previous marathon experience was protective of severe training injury.

78 FR 25942 - J.R. Simplot Co.; Availability of Petition for Determination of Nonregulated Status of Potato...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-03

... acrylamide potential (acrylamide is a human neurotoxicant and potential carcinogen that may form in potatoes.... Rebecca Stankiewicz Gabel, Chief, Biotechnology Environmental Analysis Branch, Environmental Risk Analysis Programs, Biotechnology Regulatory Services, APHIS, 4700 River Road Unit 147, Riverdale, MD 20737-1236...

75 FR 81942 - Importation of Clementines From Spain; Amendment to Inspection Provisions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-29

... copy of your comment to Docket No. APHIS-2010-0036, Regulatory Analysis and Development, PPD, APHIS..., Assistant Director of Preclearance Programs, Quarantine Policy, Analysis, and Support, PPQ, APHIS, 4700... have increased, and lower the number if environmental, climatic, or other factors indicate a lower risk...

Exploring shared risks through public-private partnerships in public health programs: a mixed method.

PubMed

Alonazi, Wadi B

2017-06-12

The natural assimilation of the process through which health partners sustain long-term relationships is a key issue in maintaining social well-being, reducing health risk factors, and sustaining public health programs. One global initiative in building effective healthcare systems is public-private partnerships (PPPs). This study elucidates the proposed key performance indicators initiated by the Ministry of Health of Saudi Arabia based on the projections of the government, known as Vision 2030, from the perspective of health risk factors. Through an inductive content analysis, this study assessed primary and secondary data in relation to the Saudi National Transformation Program (NTP). To identify the institutions that played a role in formulating the new Saudi Healthcare System, health policies, regulations, and reports published between 1996 and 2016 were categorized. After ranking the risk factors, the investigator selected 13 healthcare professionals in four focus group interviews to insightfully explore the challenges that the NTP faces from a health risk perspective. Thus, the study employed qualitative data gathered through focus group interviews with key figures as well as data extracted from written sources to identify distinct but interrelated partnerships practiced within risk management. A methodological overview of NTP priority and implementation offered practical guidance in the healthcare context. The five critical factors in maintaining successful and sustainable PPPs were (1) trustworthiness, (2) technological capability, (3) patient-centeredness, (4) competence, and (5) flexibility. Concession on primary and secondary healthcare services might be a good option based on the literature review and considering its popularity in other countries. A high outcome-based risk of PPPs was found as the most commonly shared perspective in risk management. Although the impact of the NTP rise has yet to be explored, its potential for challenging health consequences requires consideration and substantial regulatory action. This study contributes to the emerging critical analysis on local health initiatives by highlighting how integration may only be possible with a more radical conceptualization of national health governance.

Patient safety in external beam radiotherapy, results of the ACCIRAD project: Current status of proactive risk assessment, reactive analysis of events, and reporting and learning systems in Europe.

PubMed

Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Przybylska, Kamila; Skrobała, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu

2017-04-01

To describe the current status of implementation of European directives for risk management in radiotherapy and to assess variability in risk management in the following areas: 1) in-country regulatory framework; 2) proactive risk assessment; (3) reactive analysis of events; and (4) reporting and learning systems. The original data were collected as part of the ACCIRAD project through two online surveys. Risk assessment criteria are closely associated with quality assurance programs. Only 9/32 responding countries (28%) with national regulations reported clear "requirements" for proactive risk assessment and/or reactive risk analysis, with wide variability in assessment methods. Reporting of adverse error events is mandatory in most (70%) but not all surveyed countries. Most European countries have taken steps to implement European directives designed to reduce the probability and magnitude of accidents in radiotherapy. Variability between countries is substantial in terms of legal frameworks, tools used to conduct proactive risk assessment and reactive analysis of events, and in the reporting and learning systems utilized. These findings underscore the need for greater harmonisation in common terminology, classification and reporting practices across Europe to improve patient safety and to enable more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A risk explicit interval linear programming model for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization in the Lake Fuxian watershed, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoling; Huang, Kai; Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of "low risk and high return efficiency" in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management.

A Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming Model for Uncertainty-Based Environmental Economic Optimization in the Lake Fuxian Watershed, China

PubMed Central

Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of “low risk and high return efficiency” in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management. PMID:24191144

The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes

PubMed Central

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

2014-01-01

Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2564 grade 10 students and their parents in The Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention which should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs. PMID:25490732

The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes.

PubMed

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

2014-12-01

Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2,564 grade 10 students and their parents in the Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention that should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs.

Intrinsic gait-related risk factors for Achilles tendinopathy in novice runners: a prospective study.

PubMed

Van Ginckel, Ans; Thijs, Youri; Hesar, Narmin Ghani Zadeh; Mahieu, Nele; De Clercq, Dirk; Roosen, Philip; Witvrouw, Erik

2009-04-01

The purpose of this prospective cohort study was to identify dynamic gait-related risk factors for Achilles tendinopathy (AT) in a population of novice runners. Prior to a 10-week running program, force distribution patterns underneath the feet of 129 subjects were registered using a footscan pressure plate while the subjects jogged barefoot at a comfortable self-selected pace. Throughout the program 10 subjects sustained Achilles tendinopathy of which three reported bilateral complaints. Sixty-six subjects were excluded from the statistical analysis. Therefore the statistical analysis was performed on the remaining sample of 63 subjects. Logistic regression analysis revealed a significant decrease in the total posterior-anterior displacement of the Centre Of Force (COF) (P=0.015) and a laterally directed force distribution underneath the forefoot at 'forefoot flat' (P=0.016) as intrinsic gait-related risk factors for Achilles tendinopathy in novice runners. These results suggest that, in contrast to the frequently described functional hyperpronation following a more inverted touchdown, a lateral foot roll-over following heel strike and diminished forward force transfer underneath the foot should be considered in the prevention of Achilles tendinopathy.

Evaluation of the National Guard Health Promotion Program for Chronic Diseases and Comorbid Conditions Among Military Personnel in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia, 2016.

PubMed

Aljasir, Badr A; Al-Mugti, Hani Saad; Alosaimi, Majed Naif; Al-Mugati, Amer Saad

2017-11-01

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide. Preventive efforts mainly target the reduction of modifiable CVD risk factors through community-based promotion programs. One of these programs is the National Guard Health Promotion Program for Chronic Diseases and Comorbid Conditions among military personnel in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. Researchers have asserted that to improve every intervention program, especially those targeting public health issues, regular monitoring and evaluation are needed to determine the strength and weakness of the program. The objective of this study was to assess the effectiveness of National Guard Health Promotion Program for Chronic Diseases and Comorbid Conditions among military personnel in Jeddah City by estimating Framingham risk score, diabetes risk score, and satisfaction level for the participants covered by the program for at least 6 months. Through pre- and poststudy design, a systematic random sample of military personnel who fulfilled the inclusion criteria (n = 267) were enrolled in the study. To assess the program's effectiveness, participants were subjected to clinical and laboratory assessment based mainly on Framingham risk scores before and after involvement in the program; satisfaction was assessed concurrently using a self-administered questionnaire. The Wilcoxon signed rank test was used to compare changes in non-normally distributed quantitative variables. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of risk of CVDs. The subjects were all military men, with mean age of 35.8 ± 6.6 years; 6% officers with the remainder "non-officers" primarily working in the combat services. After at least 6 months of the preventive program, there were statistically significant decreases in body mass index (-0.4 ± 1.5 kg/m 2 ), waist circumference (-0.9 ± 6.2 cm), fasting blood glucose (-12.3 ± 29.6 mg/dL), and total cholesterol (-15.4 ± 40.2 mg/dL). Despite this observed improvement, the overall Framingham risk score showed a modest nonsignificant change (-0.1 ± 2.1 points). Similarly, although specific predictors scores of diabetes mellitus showed significant improvement (decreased blood glucose [-0.4 ± 1.8 points] and increased fruit and vegetable consumption [-0.2 ± 0.6 points]), there was no significant change in the overall diabetes risk score (-0.01 ± 2.5). The majority of the participants (96%) expressed that they were satisfied with the program. The National Guard Health Promotion Program is effective in improving specific risk factors such as body mass index, waist circumference, blood glucose, and intake of fruits and vegetables; in addition, it was perceived as being satisfactory. Nevertheless, it had no statistically significant impact on the overall total risk scores for CVDs and diabetes mellitus. Reprint & Copyright © 2017 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Risky sexual behaviors of adolescents in rural Malawi: evidence from focus groups.

PubMed

Dancy, Barbara L; Kaponda, Chrissie P N; Kachingwe, Sitingawawo I; Norr, Kathleen F

2006-07-01

Little is known about rural Malawian adolescents' perceptions of their sexual behavior and what would constitute an effective HIV risk-reduction program. This study explored the perceptions of Malawain adolescents using qualitative description research with focus groups. A purposive sample of 144 adolescents, ranging from 10 to 19 years of age was obtained. Subjects were then placed in focus groups separated by gender Qualitative content analysis revealed that adolescents were at risk for HIV based on the select behaviors These included early sexual debut, multiple partners, non-use of condoms and among girls older partners These adolescents acknowledged peer pressure and lack of parental supervision as factors that perpetuated these behaviors and identified two components of HIV prevention programs. For example, parental involvement and support for sexual abstinence were among the issues discussed. It is essential that HIV risk-reduction programs create ways of involving parents and of enhancing adolescents' HIV risk-reduction skills by helping them to change peer norms and to develop negotiation and assertiveness skills to in order to resist peer pressure.

A Case Study of Measuring Process Risk for Early Insights into Software Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Layman, Lucas; Basili, Victor; Zelkowitz, Marvin V.; Fisher, Karen L.

2011-01-01

In this case study, we examine software safety risk in three flight hardware systems in NASA's Constellation spaceflight program. We applied our Technical and Process Risk Measurement (TPRM) methodology to the Constellation hazard analysis process to quantify the technical and process risks involving software safety in the early design phase of these projects. We analyzed 154 hazard reports and collected metrics to measure the prevalence of software in hazards and the specificity of descriptions of software causes of hazardous conditions. We found that 49-70% of 154 hazardous conditions could be caused by software or software was involved in the prevention of the hazardous condition. We also found that 12-17% of the 2013 hazard causes involved software, and that 23-29% of all causes had a software control. The application of the TPRM methodology identified process risks in the application of the hazard analysis process itself that may lead to software safety risk.

Can a costly intervention be cost-effective?: An analysis of violence prevention.

PubMed

Foster, E Michael; Jones, Damon

2006-11-01

To examine the cost-effectiveness of the Fast Track intervention, a multi-year, multi-component intervention designed to reduce violence among at-risk children. A previous report documented the favorable effect of intervention on the highest-risk group of ninth-graders diagnosed with conduct disorder, as well as self-reported delinquency. The current report addressed the cost-effectiveness of the intervention for these measures of program impact. Costs of the intervention were estimated using program budgets. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were computed to determine the cost per unit of improvement in the 3 outcomes measured in the 10th year of the study. Examination of the total sample showed that the intervention was not cost-effective at likely levels of policymakers' willingness to pay for the key outcomes. Subsequent analysis of those most at risk, however, showed that the intervention likely was cost-effective given specified willingness-to-pay criteria. Results indicate that the intervention is cost-effective for the children at highest risk. From a policy standpoint, this finding is encouraging because such children are likely to generate higher costs for society over their lifetimes. However, substantial barriers to cost-effectiveness remain, such as the ability to effectively identify and recruit such higher-risk children in future implementations.

A Protection Motivation Theory application to date rape education.

PubMed

Singh, Shweta; Orwat, John; Grossman, Susan

2011-12-01

Date rape risk communication is a key component of education-based Date Rape Prevention Programs, common across colleges. In such programs, risk assessment in date rape is approached cautiously in order to avoid a tone of "victim blaming." Since it is important in the assessment of any risk to understand the surrounding social context of the risky situation and the individual's unique relationship with that social context, this study examines Protection Motivation Theory as it applies to handling the risk of date rape without victim blaming. The paper links individual personality and social contexts with risk communication. The study sample comprised 367 undergraduate women enrolled in a large Southern Public University. The study examines the relationships between dating activity, social competency, and type of information provided with the dependents variables of date rape related protection behavior (intent), belief, and knowledge. A factorial multiple analysis of covariance analysis found that the dependent variables had a significant relationship with aspects of social competency and dating activity. The exposure to varying information about date rape was not significantly related to the dependent variables of date rape-related protection behavior (intent), belief, and knowledge. The identification of social competency and dating activity status as protective factors in this study makes a significant contribution to the practice and research efforts in date rape education.

Efficacy of an integrated hospital-primary care program for heart failure: a population-based analysis of 56,742 patients.

PubMed

Comín-Colet, Josep; Verdú-Rotellar, José María; Vela, Emili; Clèries, Montse; Bustins, Montserrat; Mendoza, Lola; Badosa, Neus; Cladellas, Mercè; Ferré, Sofía; Bruguera, Jordi

2014-04-01

The efficacy of heart failure programs has been demonstrated in clinical trials but their applicability in the real world practice setting is more controversial. This study evaluates the feasibility and efficacy of an integrated hospital-primary care program for the management of patients with heart failure in an integrated health area covering a population of 309,345. For the analysis, we included all patients consecutively admitted with heart failure as the principal diagnosis who had been discharged alive from all of the hospitals in Catalonia, Spain, from 2005 to 2011, the period when the program was implemented, and compared mortality and readmissions among patients exposed to the program with the rates in the patients of all the remaining integrated health areas of the Servei Català de la Salut (Catalan Health Service). We included 56,742 patients in the study. There were 181,204 hospital admissions and 30,712 deaths during the study period. In the adjusted analyses, when compared to the 54,659 patients from the other health areas, the 2083 patients exposed to the program had a lower risk of death (hazard ratio=0.92 [95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.97]; P=.005), a lower risk of clinically-related readmission (hazard ratio=0.71 [95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.76]; P<.001), and a lower risk of readmission for heart failure (hazard ratio=0.86 [95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.94]; P<.001). The positive impact on the morbidity and mortality rates was more marked once the program had become well established. The implementation of multidisciplinary heart failure management programs that integrate the hospital and the community is feasible and is associated with a significant reduction in patient morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Eliminating Residents Increases the Cost of Care.

PubMed

DeMarco, Deborah M; Forster, Richard; Gakis, Thomas; Finberg, Robert W

2017-08-01

Academic health centers are facing a potential reduction in Medicare financing for graduate medical education (GME). Both the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission and the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (Deficit Commission) have suggested cutting approximately half the funding that teaching hospitals receive for indirect medical education. Because of the effort that goes into teaching trainees, who are only transient employees, hospital executives often see teaching programs as a drain on resources. In light of the possibility of a Medicare cut to GME programs, we undertook an analysis to assess the financial risk of training programs to our institution and the possibility of saving money by reducing resident positions. The chief administrative officer, in collaboration with the hospital chief financial officer, performed a financial analysis to examine the possibility of decreasing costs by reducing residency programs at the University of Massachusetts Memorial Medical Center. Despite the real costs of our training programs, the analysis demonstrated that GME programs have a positive impact on hospital finances. Reducing or eliminating GME programs would have a negative impact on our hospital's bottom line.

Health economics evaluation of a gastric cancer early detection and treatment program in China.

PubMed

Li, Dan; Yuan, Yuan; Sun, Li-Ping; Fang, Xue; Zhou, Bao-Sen

2014-01-01

To use health economics methodology to assess the screening program on gastric cancer in Zhuanghe, China, so as to provide the basis for health decision on expanding the program of early detection and treatment. The expense of an early detection and treatment program for gastric cancer in patients found by screening, and also costs of traditional treatment in a hospital of Zhuanghe were assessed. Three major techniques of medical economics, namely cost-effective analysis (CEA), cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and cost-utility analysis (CUA), were used to assess the screening program. RESULTS from CEA showed that investing every 25, 235 Yuan on screening program in Zhuanghe area, one gastric cancer patient could be saved. Data from CUA showed that it was cost 1, 370 Yuan per QALY saved. RESULTS from CBA showed that: the total cost was 1,945,206 Yuan with a benefit as 8,669,709 Yuan and an CBR of 4.46. The early detection and treatment program of gastric cancer appears economic and society-beneficial. We suggest that it should be carry out in more high risk areas for gastric cancer.

Coach-led prevention programs are effective in reducing anterior cruciate ligament injury risk in female athletes: A number-needed-to-treat analysis.

PubMed

Pfile, K R; Curioz, B

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the effectiveness of an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) prevention program is impacted by the individual(s) directing the program. A number-needed-to-treat analysis compared the effectiveness of injury prevention measures when either directed by a coach or a mixed leadership group consisting of coach and healthcare providers. Eleven studies were included for analysis. Number-needed-to-treat and relative risk reduction (RRR) were calculated for each study and data sets were pooled based on the intervention leader. Quality of evidence was determined by assessing individual studies (PEDro score x¯=4.55±1.97, range=2-7), applying the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine Levels of Evidence (CEBM=2a), and the Strength of Recommendation Taxonomy (SORT=Level B). The mixed leadership group studies' RRR=48.2% (95% confidence interval (CI)=22-65) and a number-needed-to-benefit of 120 (CI=73-303) while the coach-led group's RRR=58.4% (CI=40-71) and a number-needed-to-benefit=133 (CI=96-217). These results demonstrate that a coach-led ACL injury prevention program approach is as effective as a mixed group leadership approach. Coach-led prevention programs can be more widely implemented; however, it is imperative to ensure adequate training is in place prior to implementation of such intervention. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Psychosocial Correlates of AUDIT-C Hazardous Drinking Risk Status: Implications for Screening and Brief Intervention in College Settings.

PubMed

Wahesh, Edward; Lewis, Todd F

2015-01-01

The current study identified psychosocial variables associated with AUDIT-C hazardous drinking risk status for male and female college students. Logistic regression analysis revealed that AUDIT-C risk status was associated with alcohol-related negative consequences, injunctive norms, and descriptive norms for both male and female participants. Sociability and self-perception outcome expectancies predicted risk status for females. Cognitive and behavioral impairment expectancies predicted risk status for men in the sample. Implications for screening and brief intervention programming efforts are discussed. © The Author(s) 2015.

Developing and establishing the validity and reliability of the perceptions toward Aviation Safety Action Program (ASAP) and Line Operations Safety Audit (LOSA) questionnaires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steckel, Richard J.

Aviation Safety Action Program (ASAP) and Line Operations Safety Audits (LOSA) are voluntary safety reporting programs developed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to assist air carriers in discovering and fixing threats, errors and undesired aircraft states during normal flights that could result in a serious or fatal accident. These programs depend on voluntary participation of and reporting by air carrier pilots to be successful. The purpose of the study was to develop and validate a measurement scale to measure U.S. air carrier pilots' perceived benefits and/or barriers to participating in ASAP and LOSA programs. Data from these surveys could be used to make changes to or correct pilot misperceptions of these programs to improve participation and the flow of data. ASAP and LOSA a priori models were developed based on previous research in aviation and healthcare. Sixty thousand ASAP and LOSA paper surveys were sent to 60,000 current U.S. air carrier pilots selected at random from an FAA database of pilot certificates. Two thousand usable ASAP and 1,970 usable LOSA surveys were returned and analyzed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Analysis of the data using confirmatory actor analysis and model generation resulted in a five factor ASAP model (Ease of use, Value, Improve, Trust and Risk) and a five factor LOSA model (Value, Improve, Program Trust, Risk and Management Trust). ASAP and LOSA data were not normally distributed, so bootstrapping was used. While both final models exhibited acceptable fit with approximate fit indices, the exact fit hypothesis and the Bollen-Stine p value indicated possible model mis-specification for both ASAP and LOSA models.

Safety and Tolerability of PD-1/PD-L1 Inhibitors Compared with Chemotherapy in Patients with Advanced Cancer: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Nishijima, Tomohiro F; Shachar, Shlomit S; Nyrop, Kirsten A; Muss, Hyman B

2017-04-01

Compared with chemotherapy, significant improvement in survival outcomes with the programmed death receptor-1 (PD-1) inhibitors nivolumab and pembrolizumab and the programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) inhibitor atezolizumab has been shown in several types of advanced solid tumors. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare safety and tolerability between PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors and chemotherapy. PubMed and American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) databases were searched 1966 to September 2016. Eligible studies included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing single-agent U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors (nivolumab, pembrolizumab, or atezolizumab) with chemotherapy in cancer patients reporting any all-grade (1-4) or high-grade (3-4) adverse events (AEs), all- or high-grade treatment-related symptoms, hematologic toxicities and immune-related AEs, treatment discontinuation due to toxicities, or treatment-related deaths. The summary incidence, relative risk, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. A total of 3,450 patients from 7 RCTs were included in the meta-analysis: 4 nivolumab, 2 pembrolizumab, and 1 atezolizumab trials. The underlying malignancies included were non-small cell lung cancer (4 trials) and melanoma (3 trials). Compared with chemotherapy, the PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors had a significantly lower risk of all- and high-grade fatigue, sensory neuropathy, diarrhea and hematologic toxicities, all-grade anorexia, nausea, and constipation, any all- and high-grade AEs, and treatment discontinuation. There was an increased risk of all-grade rash, pruritus, colitis, aminotransferase elevations, hypothyroidism, and hyperthyroidism, and all- and high-grade pneumonitis with PD1/PD-L1 inhibitors. PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors are overall better tolerated than chemotherapy. Our results provide further evidence supporting the favorable risk/benefit ratio for PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors. The Oncologist 2017;22:470-479 IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare summary toxicity endpoints and clinically relevant adverse events between programmed death receptor-1 (PD-1)/programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) inhibitors and chemotherapy. PD1/PD-L1 inhibitors were associated with a lower risk of treatment-related symptoms (fatigue, anorexia, nausea, diarrhea, constipation, and sensory neuropathy) but a higher risk of immune-related adverse events (AEs). Summary toxicity endpoints favor PD1/PD-L1 inhibitors (any all- and high-grade AEs and treatment discontinuation). PD1/PD-L1 inhibitors are overall better tolerated than chemotherapy. In addition to efficacy data from trials, our findings provide useful information for clinicians for well-balanced discussions with their patients on the risks and benefits of treatment options for advanced cancer. © AlphaMed Press 2017.

Safety and Tolerability of PD‐1/PD‐L1 Inhibitors Compared with Chemotherapy in Patients with Advanced Cancer: A Meta‐Analysis

PubMed Central

Shachar, Shlomit S.; Nyrop, Kirsten A.; Muss, Hyman B.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background. Compared with chemotherapy, significant improvement in survival outcomes with the programmed death receptor‐1 (PD‐1) inhibitors nivolumab and pembrolizumab and the programmed death‐ligand 1 (PD‐L1) inhibitor atezolizumab has been shown in several types of advanced solid tumors. We conducted a systematic review and meta‐analysis to compare safety and tolerability between PD‐1/PD‐L1 inhibitors and chemotherapy. Methods. PubMed and American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) databases were searched 1966 to September 2016. Eligible studies included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing single‐agent U.S. Food and Drug Administration–approved PD‐1/PD‐L1 inhibitors (nivolumab, pembrolizumab, or atezolizumab) with chemotherapy in cancer patients reporting any all‐grade (1–4) or high‐grade (3–4) adverse events (AEs), all‐ or high‐grade treatment‐related symptoms, hematologic toxicities and immune‐related AEs, treatment discontinuation due to toxicities, or treatment‐related deaths. The summary incidence, relative risk, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Results. A total of 3,450 patients from 7 RCTs were included in the meta‐analysis: 4 nivolumab, 2 pembrolizumab, and 1 atezolizumab trials. The underlying malignancies included were non‐small cell lung cancer (4 trials) and melanoma (3 trials). Compared with chemotherapy, the PD‐1/PD‐L1 inhibitors had a significantly lower risk of all‐ and high‐grade fatigue, sensory neuropathy, diarrhea and hematologic toxicities, all‐grade anorexia, nausea, and constipation, any all‐ and high‐grade AEs, and treatment discontinuation. There was an increased risk of all‐grade rash, pruritus, colitis, aminotransferase elevations, hypothyroidism, and hyperthyroidism, and all‐ and high‐grade pneumonitis with PD1/PD‐L1 inhibitors. Conclusion. PD‐1/PD‐L1 inhibitors are overall better tolerated than chemotherapy. Our results provide further evidence supporting the favorable risk/benefit ratio for PD‐1/PD‐L1 inhibitors. Implications for Practice. We conducted a systematic review and meta‐analysis to compare summary toxicity endpoints and clinically relevant adverse events between programmed death receptor‐1 (PD‐1)/programmed death‐ligand 1 (PD‐L1) inhibitors and chemotherapy. PD1/PD‐L1 inhibitors were associated with a lower risk of treatment‐related symptoms (fatigue, anorexia, nausea, diarrhea, constipation, and sensory neuropathy) but a higher risk of immune‐related adverse events (AEs). Summary toxicity endpoints favor PD1/PD‐L1 inhibitors (any all‐ and high‐grade AEs and treatment discontinuation). PD1/PD‐L1 inhibitors are overall better tolerated than chemotherapy. In addition to efficacy data from trials, our findings provide useful information for clinicians for well‐balanced discussions with their patients on the risks and benefits of treatment options for advanced cancer. PMID:28275115

Risk-trading in flood management: An economic model.

PubMed

Chang, Chiung Ting

2017-09-15

Although flood management is no longer exclusively a topic of engineering, flood mitigation continues to be associated with hard engineering options. Flood adaptation or the capacity to adapt to flood risk, as well as a demand for internalizing externalities caused by flood risk between regions, complicate flood management activities. Even though integrated river basin management has long been recommended to resolve the above issues, it has proven difficult to apply widely, and sometimes even to bring into existence. This article explores how internalization of externalities as well as the realization of integrated river basin management can be encouraged via the use of a market-based approach, namely a flood risk trading program. In addition to maintaining efficiency of optimal resource allocation, a flood risk trading program may also provide a more equitable distribution of benefits by facilitating decentralization. This article employs a graphical analysis to show how flood risk trading can be implemented to encourage mitigation measures that increase infiltration and storage capacity. A theoretical model is presented to demonstrate the economic conditions necessary for flood risk trading. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design definition study of a NASA/Navy lift/cruise fan technology V/STOL airplane: Risk assessment addendum to the final report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zabinsky, J. M.; Burnham, R. W.; Flora, C. C.; Gotlieb, P.; Grande, D. L.; Gunnarson, D. W.; Howard, W. M.; Hunt, D.; Jakubowski, G. W.; Johnson, P. E.

1975-01-01

An assessment of risk, in terms of delivery delays, cost overrun, and performance achievement, associated with the V/STOL technology airplane is presented. The risk is discussed in terms of weight, structure, aerodynamics, propulsion, mechanical drive, and flight controls. The analysis ensures that risks associated with the design and development of the airplane will be eliminated in the course of the program and a useful technology airplane that meets the predicted cost, schedule, and performance can be produced.

Effects of Parenting Programs on Child Maltreatment Prevention: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Mengtong; Chan, Ko Ling

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of parenting programs in reducing child maltreatment and modifying associated factors as well as to examine the moderator variables that are linked to program effects. For this meta-analysis, we searched nine electronic databases to identify randomized controlled trials published before September 2013. The effect sizes of various outcomes at different time points were computed. From the 3,578 studies identified, we selected 37 studies for further analysis. The total random effect size was 0.296. Our results showed that parenting programs successfully reduced substantiated and self-reported child maltreatment reports and reduced the potential for child maltreatment. The programs also reduced risk factors and enhanced protective factors associated with child maltreatment. However, the effects of the parenting programs on reducing parental depression and stress were limited. Parenting programs produced positive effects in low-, middle-, and high-income countries and were effective in reducing child maltreatment when applied as primary, secondary, or tertiary child maltreatment intervention. In conclusion, parenting programs are effective public health approaches to reduce child maltreatment. The evidence-based service of parenting programs could be widely adopted in future practice. © The Author(s) 2015.

Analyzing risks to protected areas using the human modification framework: a Colorado case study

Treesearch

David M. Theobald; Alisa Wade; Grant Wilcox; Nate Peterson

2010-01-01

A framework that organizes natural and protected areas is often used to help understand the potential risks to natural areas and aspects of their ecological and human dimensions. The spatial (or landscape) context of these dynamics is also a critical, but, rarely considered, factor. Common classification systems include the U.S. Geological (USGS) Gap Analysis Program...

Multilevel Analysis of Multiple-Baseline Data Evaluating Precision Teaching as an Intervention for Improving Fluency in Foundational Reading Skills for at Risk Readers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brosnan, Julie; Moeyaert, Mariola; Brooks Newsome, Kendra; Healy, Olive; Heyvaert, Mieke; Onghena, Patrick; Van den Noortgate, Wim

2018-01-01

In this article, multiple-baseline across participants designs were used to evaluate the impact of a precision teaching (PT) program, within a Tier 2 Response to Intervention framework, targeting fluency in foundational reading skills with at risk kindergarten readers. Thirteen multiple-baseline design experiments that included participation from…

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Screening and Treatment in Adults with Hypertension in Rural Nigeria in the Context of a Health Insurance Program

PubMed Central

Verhagen, Mark D.; Bolarinwa, Oladimeji A.; Sanya, Emmanuel O.; Kolo, Philip M.; Adenusi, Peju; Agbede, Kayode; van Eck, Diederik; Tan, Siok Swan; Akande, Tanimola M.; Redekop, William; Schultsz, Constance; Gomez, Gabriela B.

2016-01-01

Background High blood pressure is a leading risk factor for death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We evaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of hypertension care provided within the Kwara State Health Insurance (KSHI) program in rural Nigeria. Methods A Markov model was developed to assess the costs and cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension screening and subsequent antihypertensive treatment for the population at-risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) within the KSHI program. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the KSHI scenario compared to no access to hypertension care. We used setting-specific and empirically-collected data to inform the model. We defined two strategies to assess eligibility for antihypertensive treatment based on 1) presence of hypertension grade 1 and 10-year CVD risk of >20%, or grade 2 hypertension irrespective of 10-year CVD risk (hypertension and risk based strategy) and 2) presence of hypertension in combination with a CVD risk of >20% (risk based strategy). We generated 95% confidence intervals around the primary outcome through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses across key model parameters and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the performance of the reference scenario. Results Screening and treatment for hypertension was potentially cost-effective but the results were sensitive to changes in underlying assumptions with a wide range of uncertainty. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the first and second strategy respectively ranged from US$ 1,406 to US$ 7,815 and US$ 732 to US$ 2,959 per DALY averted, depending on the assumptions on risk reduction after treatment and compared to no access to antihypertensive treatment. Conclusions Hypertension care within a subsidized private health insurance program may be cost-effective in rural Nigeria and public-private partnerships such as the KSHI program may provide opportunities to finance CVD prevention care in SSA. PMID:27348310

General RMP Guidance - Appendix E: Supplemental Risk Management Program Guidance for Ammonia Refrigeration Facilities

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Additional information for food processors, food distributors, refrigerated warehouses, and any other facility with ammonia refrigeration system. Includes guidance on exemptions, threshold quantity, offsite consequence analysis.

Learning from Ethical Dilemmas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Havens, Mark D.

1987-01-01

Reports analysis of 60 case studies of ethical dilemmas faced by experiential educators. Identifies issues which enhance likelihood of moral dilemmas: funding, residential programming, and risk-taking. Exposes need for a professional "code of ethics." (NEC)

Healthcare Work and Organizational Interventions to Prevent Work-related Stress in Brindisi, Italy.

PubMed

d'Ettorre, Gabriele; Greco, Mariarita

2015-03-01

Organizational changes that involve healthcare hospital departments and care services of health districts, and ongoing technological innovations and developments in society increasingly expose healthcare workers (HCWs) to work-related stress (WRS). Minimizing occupational exposure to stress requires effective risk stress assessment and management programs. The authors conducted an integrated analysis of stress sentinel indicators, an integrated analysis of objective stress factors of occupational context and content areas, and an integrated analysis between nurses and physicians of hospital departments and care services of health districts in accordance with a multidimensional validated tool developed in Italy by the National Network for the Prevention of Work-Related Psychosocial Disorders. The purpose of this retrospective observational study was to detect and analyze in different work settings the level of WRS resulting from organizational changes implemented by hospital healthcare departments and care services of health districts in a sample of their employees. The findings of the study showed that hospital HCWs seemed to incur a medium level risk of WRS that was principally the result of work context factors. The implementation of improvement interventions focused on team development, safety training programs, and adopting an ethics code for HCWs, and it effectively and significantly reduced the level of WRS risk in the workplace. In this study HCW resulted to be exposed to occupational stress factors susceptible to reduction. Stress management programs aimed to improve work context factors associated with occupational stress are required to minimize the impact of WRS on workers.

Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

2004-05-20

This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.

School-Based Sleep Education Programs for Short Sleep Duration in Adolescents: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Chung, Ka-Fai; Chan, Man-Sum; Lam, Ying-Yin; Lai, Cindy Sin-Yee; Yeung, Wing-Fai

2017-06-01

Insufficient sleep among students is a major school health problem. School-based sleep education programs tailored to reach large number of students may be one of the solutions. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to summarize the programs' effectiveness and current status. Electronic databases were searched up until May 2015. Randomized controlled trials of school-based sleep intervention among 10- to 19-year-old students with outcome on total sleep duration were included. Methodological quality of the studies was assessed using the Cochrane's risk of bias assessment. Seven studies were included, involving 1876 students receiving sleep education programs and 2483 attending classes-as-usual. Four weekly 50-minute sleep education classes were most commonly provided. Methodological quality was only moderate, with a high or an uncertain risk of bias in several domains. Compared to classes-as-usual, sleep education programs produced significantly longer weekday and weekend total sleep time and better mood among students at immediate post-treatment, but the improvements were not maintained at follow-up. Limited by the small number of studies and methodological limitations, the preliminary data showed that school-based sleep education programs produced short-term benefits. Future studies should explore integrating sleep education with delayed school start time or other more effective approaches. © 2017, American School Health Association.

How to make the most of failure mode and effect analysis.

PubMed

Stalhandske, Erik; DeRosier, Joseph; Patail, Bryanne; Gosbee, John

2003-01-01

Current accreditation standards issued by the Joint Commission for the Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO) require hospitals to carry out a proactive risk assessment on at least 1 high-risk activity each year for each accredited program. Because hospital risk managers and patient safety managers generally do not have the knowledge or level of comfort for conducting a proactive risk assessment, they will appreciate the expertise offered by biomedical equipment technicians (BMETs), occupational safety and health professionals, and others. The skills that have been developed by BMETs and others while conducting job safety analyses or failure mode effect analysis can now be applied to a health care proactive analysis. This article touches on the Health Care Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) model that the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) National Center for Patient Safety developed for proactive risk assessment within the health care community. The goal of this article is to enlighten BMETs and others on the growth of proactive risk assessment within health care and also on the support documents and materials produced by the VA. For additional information on HFMEA, visit the VA website at www.patientsafety.gov/HFMEA.html.

A conceptual framework for the design of environmental post-market monitoring of genetically modified plants.

PubMed

Sanvido, Olivier; Widmer, Franco; Winzeler, Michael; Bigler, Franz

2005-01-01

Genetically modified plants (GMPs) may soon be cultivated commercially in several member countries of the European Union (EU). According to EU Directive 2001/18/EC, post-market monitoring (PMM) for commercial GMP cultivation must be implemented, in order to detect and prevent adverse effects on human health and the environment. However, no general PMM strategies for GMP cultivation have been established so far. We present a conceptual framework for the design of environmental PMM for GMP cultivation based on current EU legislation and common risk analysis procedures. We have established a comprehensive structure of the GMP approval process, consisting of pre-market risk assessment (PMRA) as well as PMM. Both programs can be distinguished conceptually due to principles inherent to risk analysis procedures. The design of PMM programs should take into account the knowledge gained during approval for commercialization of a specific GMP and the decisions made in the environmental risk assessments (ERAs). PMM is composed of case-specific monitoring (CSM) and general surveillance. CSM focuses on anticipated effects of a specific GMP. Selection of case-specific indicators for detection of ecological exposure and effects, as well as definition of effect sizes, are important for CSM. General surveillance is designed to detect unanticipated effects on general safeguard subjects, such as natural resources, which must not be adversely affected by human activities like GMP cultivation. We have identified clear conceptual differences between CSM and general surveillance, and propose to adopt separate frameworks when developing either of the two programs. Common to both programs is the need to put a value on possible ecological effects of GMP cultivation. The structure of PMM presented here will be of assistance to industry, researchers, and regulators, when assessing GMPs during commercialization.

Risk Management for the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sebastian, J.; Brezovic, Philip

2002-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS Risk Management Office strategy to proactively and systematically manages risks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated risk management process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous risk management methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.

Identifying Procurement Fraud in Defense Agencies: An Analysis of the Government Purchase Card Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-30

fielding, contracting, interoperability, organizational behavior, risk management , cost estimating, and many others. Approaches range from... COSO ), (Whittington & Pany, 2012). In addition, the Federal Financial Management Improvement Act of 1996 identified internal control as an...fraud indicators within the DoD Government Purchase Card Programs and provides recommendations for improving the management of Government Purchase

Report to the administrator by the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel on the Skylab program. Volume 2: Program implementation and maturity. [systems management evaluation and design analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

Results of the design and manufacturing reviews on the maturity of the Skylab modules are presented along with results of investigations on the scope of the cluster risk assessment efforts. The technical management system and its capability to assess and resolve problems are studied.

Race to the Top--Early Learning Challenge: An Analysis of Impact on IDEIA, Part C Early Intervention Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bohjanen, Sharon L.

2016-01-01

Infants and toddlers who live in poverty are more likely to experience developmental delays or disabilities and less likely to access early intervention (EI) services. The federal initiative Race to the Top--Early Learning Challenge (RTT-ELC) was designed to increase access to high quality early learning programs for children at risk for…

The Andrews’ Principles of Risk, Need, and Responsivity as Applied in Drug Abuse Treatment Programs: Meta-Analysis of Crime and Drug Use Outcomes

PubMed Central

Prendergast, Michael L.; Pearson, Frank S.; Podus, Deborah; Hamilton, Zachary K.; Greenwell, Lisa

2013-01-01

Objectives The purpose of the present meta-analysis was to answer the question: Can the Andrews principles of risk, needs, and responsivity, originally developed for programs that treat offenders, be extended to programs that treat drug abusers? Methods Drawing from a dataset that included 243 independent comparisons, we conducted random-effects meta-regression and ANOVA-analog meta-analyses to test the Andrews principles by averaging crime and drug use outcomes over a diverse set of programs for drug abuse problems. Results For crime outcomes, in the meta-regressions the point estimates for each of the principles were substantial, consistent with previous studies of the Andrews principles. There was also a substantial point estimate for programs exhibiting a greater number of the principles. However, almost all of the 95% confidence intervals included the zero point. For drug use outcomes, in the meta-regressions the point estimates for each of the principles was approximately zero; however, the point estimate for programs exhibiting a greater number of the principles was somewhat positive. All of the estimates for the drug use principles had confidence intervals that included the zero point. Conclusions This study supports previous findings from primary research studies targeting the Andrews principles that those principles are effective in reducing crime outcomes, here in meta-analytic research focused on drug treatment programs. By contrast, programs that follow the principles appear to have very little effect on drug use outcomes. Primary research studies that experimentally test the Andrews principles in drug treatment programs are recommended. PMID:24058325

MIXED-STATUS FAMILIES AND WIC UPTAKE: THE EFFECTS OF RISK OF DEPORTATION ON PROGRAM USE

PubMed Central

Vargas, Edward D.; Pirog, Maureen A.

2016-01-01

Objective Develop and test measures of risk of deportation and mixed-status families on WIC uptake. Mixed-status is a situation in which some family members are U.S. citizens and other family members are in the U.S. without proper authorization. Methods Estimate a series of logistic regressions to estimate WIC uptake by merging data from Fragile Families and Child Well-being Survey with deportation data from U.S.-Immigration Customs and Enforcement. Results The findings of this study suggest that risk of deportation is negatively associated with WIC uptake and among mixed-status families; Mexican origin families are the most sensitive when it comes to deportations and program use. Conclusion Our analysis provides a typology and framework to study mixed-status families and evaluate their usage of social services by including an innovative measure of risk of deportation. PMID:27642194

Preferred Features of E-Mental Health Programs for Prevention of Major Depression in Male Workers: Results From a Canadian National Survey.

PubMed

Wang, JianLi; Lam, Raymond W; Ho, Kendall; Attridge, Mark; Lashewicz, Bonnie M; Patten, Scott B; Marchand, Alain; Aiken, Alice; Schmitz, Norbert; Gundu, Sarika; Rewari, Nitika; Hodgins, David; Bulloch, Andrew; Merali, Zul

2016-06-06

Major depression is a prevalent mental disorder and imposes considerable burden on health and productivity. Men are not immune to major depression, yet they often delay seeking help because of perceived stigma and gender norms. E-mental health programs hold potential for early prevention of major depression. However, we have little knowledge about men's preferences for design features of e-mental health programs. The objective of this study was to (1) estimate and compare the proportions of Internet use for medical information, preferred design features, and likely use of e-mental health programs; (2) examine factors associated with the likely use of e-mental health programs; and (3) understand potential barriers to the use of e-mental health programs among Canadian working men, who were at high risk of a major depressive episode (MDE). A cross-sectional survey in 10 Canadian provinces was conducted between March and December 2015. Random digit dialing method was used through household landlines and cell phones to collect data from 511 working men who were at high risk of having an MDE and 330 working men who were at low risk of having an MDE. High-risk men were more likely to endorse the importance of accessing health resources on the Internet than low-risk men (83.4% vs 75.0%, respectively; P=.01). Of the 17 different features assessed, the top three features most likely to be used by high-risk men were: "information about improving sleep hygiene" (61.3%), "practice and exercise to help reduce symptoms of stress and depression" (59.5%), and "having access to quality information and resources about work stress issues" (57.8%). Compared with men at low risk for MDE, men at high risk for MDE were much more likely to consider using almost every one of the different design features. Differences in preferences for the design features by age among men at high risk of MDE were found only for 3 of 17 features. Differences in preferences for design features between English- and French-speaking participants were found only for 4 out of the 17 features. Analysis of qualitative data revealed that privacy issues, perceived stigma, ease of navigation, personal relevance, and lack of personal interaction, time, and knowledge were identified as barriers to the use of e-mental health programs in working men who were at high risk of MDE. E-mental health programs may be a promising strategy for prevention of depression in working men. Development of e-mental health programs should consider men's preferences and perceived barriers to enhance the acceptability of this approach.

Preferred Features of E-Mental Health Programs for Prevention of Major Depression in Male Workers: Results From a Canadian National Survey

PubMed Central

Lam, Raymond W; Ho, Kendall; Attridge, Mark; Lashewicz, Bonnie M; Patten, Scott B; Marchand, Alain; Aiken, Alice; Schmitz, Norbert; Gundu, Sarika; Rewari, Nitika; Hodgins, David; Bulloch, Andrew; Merali, Zul

2016-01-01

Background Major depression is a prevalent mental disorder and imposes considerable burden on health and productivity. Men are not immune to major depression, yet they often delay seeking help because of perceived stigma and gender norms. E-mental health programs hold potential for early prevention of major depression. However, we have little knowledge about men’s preferences for design features of e-mental health programs. Objectives The objective of this study was to (1) estimate and compare the proportions of Internet use for medical information, preferred design features, and likely use of e-mental health programs; (2) examine factors associated with the likely use of e-mental health programs; and (3) understand potential barriers to the use of e-mental health programs among Canadian working men, who were at high risk of a major depressive episode (MDE). Methods A cross-sectional survey in 10 Canadian provinces was conducted between March and December 2015. Random digit dialing method was used through household landlines and cell phones to collect data from 511 working men who were at high risk of having an MDE and 330 working men who were at low risk of having an MDE. Results High-risk men were more likely to endorse the importance of accessing health resources on the Internet than low-risk men (83.4% vs 75.0%, respectively; P=.01). Of the 17 different features assessed, the top three features most likely to be used by high-risk men were: “information about improving sleep hygiene” (61.3%), “practice and exercise to help reduce symptoms of stress and depression” (59.5%), and “having access to quality information and resources about work stress issues” (57.8%). Compared with men at low risk for MDE, men at high risk for MDE were much more likely to consider using almost every one of the different design features. Differences in preferences for the design features by age among men at high risk of MDE were found only for 3 of 17 features. Differences in preferences for design features between English- and French-speaking participants were found only for 4 out of the 17 features. Analysis of qualitative data revealed that privacy issues, perceived stigma, ease of navigation, personal relevance, and lack of personal interaction, time, and knowledge were identified as barriers to the use of e-mental health programs in working men who were at high risk of MDE. Conclusion E-mental health programs may be a promising strategy for prevention of depression in working men. Development of e-mental health programs should consider men’s preferences and perceived barriers to enhance the acceptability of this approach. PMID:27267782

Data Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Danny H; Elwood Jr, Robert H

2011-01-01

Analysis of the material protection, control, and accountability (MPC&A) system is necessary to understand the limits and vulnerabilities of the system to internal threats. A self-appraisal helps the facility be prepared to respond to internal threats and reduce the risk of theft or diversion of nuclear material. The material control and accountability (MC&A) system effectiveness tool (MSET) fault tree was developed to depict the failure of the MPC&A system as a result of poor practices and random failures in the MC&A system. It can also be employed as a basis for assessing deliberate threats against a facility. MSET uses faultmore » tree analysis, which is a top-down approach to examining system failure. The analysis starts with identifying a potential undesirable event called a 'top event' and then determining the ways it can occur (e.g., 'Fail To Maintain Nuclear Materials Under The Purview Of The MC&A System'). The analysis proceeds by determining how the top event can be caused by individual or combined lower level faults or failures. These faults, which are the causes of the top event, are 'connected' through logic gates. The MSET model uses AND-gates and OR-gates and propagates the effect of event failure using Boolean algebra. To enable the fault tree analysis calculations, the basic events in the fault tree are populated with probability risk values derived by conversion of questionnaire data to numeric values. The basic events are treated as independent variables. This assumption affects the Boolean algebraic calculations used to calculate results. All the necessary calculations are built into the fault tree codes, but it is often useful to estimate the probabilities manually as a check on code functioning. The probability of failure of a given basic event is the probability that the basic event primary question fails to meet the performance metric for that question. The failure probability is related to how well the facility performs the task identified in that basic event over time (not just one performance or exercise). Fault tree calculations provide a failure probability for the top event in the fault tree. The basic fault tree calculations establish a baseline relative risk value for the system. This probability depicts relative risk, not absolute risk. Subsequent calculations are made to evaluate the change in relative risk that would occur if system performance is improved or degraded. During the development effort of MSET, the fault tree analysis program used was SAPHIRE. SAPHIRE is an acronym for 'Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations.' Version 1 of the SAPHIRE code was sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1987 as an innovative way to draw, edit, and analyze graphical fault trees primarily for safe operation of nuclear power reactors. When the fault tree calculations are performed, the fault tree analysis program will produce several reports that can be used to analyze the MPC&A system. SAPHIRE produces reports showing risk importance factors for all basic events in the operational MC&A system. The risk importance information is used to examine the potential impacts when performance of certain basic events increases or decreases. The initial results produced by the SAPHIRE program are considered relative risk values. None of the results can be interpreted as absolute risk values since the basic event probability values represent estimates of risk associated with the performance of MPC&A tasks throughout the material balance area (MBA). The RRR for a basic event represents the decrease in total system risk that would result from improvement of that one event to a perfect performance level. Improvement of the basic event with the greatest RRR value produces a greater decrease in total system risk than improvement of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk reduction are assigned performance improvement values, and new fault tree calculations show the improvement in total system risk. The operational impact or cost-effectiveness from implementing the performance improvements can then be evaluated. The improvements being evaluated can be system performance improvements, or they can be potential, or actual, upgrades to the system. The RIR for a basic event represents the increase in total system risk that would result from failure of that one event. Failure of the basic event with the greatest RIR value produces a greater increase in total system risk than failure of any other basic event. Basic events with the greatest potential for system risk increase are assigned failure performance values, and new fault tree calculations show the increase in total system risk. This evaluation shows the importance of preventing performance degradation of the basic events. SAPHIRE identifies combinations of basic events where concurrent failure of the events results in failure of the top event.« less

Overview of Energy Systems` safety analysis report programs. Safety Analysis Report Update Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1992-03-01

The primary purpose of an Safety Analysis Report (SAR) is to provide a basis for judging the adequacy of a facility`s safety. The SAR documents the safety analyses that systematically identify the hazards posed by the facility, analyze the consequences and risk of potential accidents, and describe hazard control measures that protect the health and safety of the public and employees. In addition, some SARs document, as Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs, which include Technical Specifications and Operational Safety Requirements), technical and administrative requirements that ensure the facility is operated within prescribed safety limits. SARs also provide conveniently summarized information thatmore » may be used to support procedure development, training, inspections, and other activities necessary to facility operation. This ``Overview of Energy Systems Safety Analysis Report Programs`` Provides an introduction to the programs and processes used in the development and maintenance of the SARs. It also summarizes some of the uses of the SARs within Energy Systems and DOE.« less

An Alternative Vaccination Approach for The Prevention of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1 in The Red River Delta, Vietnam -A Geospatial-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Tran, Chinh C; Yanagida, John F; Saksena, Sumeet; Fox, Jefferson

2016-02-06

This study addresses the tradeoff between Vietnam's national poultry vaccination program, which implemented an annual two-round HPAI H5N1 vaccination program for the entire geographical area of the Red River Delta during the period from 2005-2010, and an alternative vaccination program which would involve vaccination for every production cycle at the recommended poultry age in high risk areas within the Delta. The ex ante analysis framework was applied to identify the location of areas with high probability of HPAI H5N1 occurrence for the alternative vaccination program by using boosted regression trees (BRT) models, followed by weighted overlay operations. Cost-effectiveness of the vaccination programs was then estimated to measure the tradeoff between the past national poultry vaccination program and the alternative vaccination program. Ex ante analysis showed that the focus areas for the alternative vaccination program included 1137 communes, corresponding to 50.6% of total communes in the Delta, and located primarily in the coastal areas to the east and south of Hanoi. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggested that the alternative vaccination program would have been more successful in reducing the rate of disease occurrence and the total cost of vaccinations, as compared to the national poultry vaccination program.

An Alternative Vaccination Approach for The Prevention of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1 in The Red River Delta, Vietnam—A Geospatial-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

PubMed Central

Tran, Chinh C.; Yanagida, John F.; Saksena, Sumeet; Fox, Jefferson

2016-01-01

This study addresses the tradeoff between Vietnam’s national poultry vaccination program, which implemented an annual two-round HPAI H5N1 vaccination program for the entire geographical area of the Red River Delta during the period from 2005–2010, and an alternative vaccination program which would involve vaccination for every production cycle at the recommended poultry age in high risk areas within the Delta. The ex ante analysis framework was applied to identify the location of areas with high probability of HPAI H5N1 occurrence for the alternative vaccination program by using boosted regression trees (BRT) models, followed by weighted overlay operations. Cost-effectiveness of the vaccination programs was then estimated to measure the tradeoff between the past national poultry vaccination program and the alternative vaccination program. Ex ante analysis showed that the focus areas for the alternative vaccination program included 1137 communes, corresponding to 50.6% of total communes in the Delta, and located primarily in the coastal areas to the east and south of Hanoi. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggested that the alternative vaccination program would have been more successful in reducing the rate of disease occurrence and the total cost of vaccinations, as compared to the national poultry vaccination program. PMID:29056716

A Serological Biopsy Using Five Stomach-Specific Circulating Biomarkers for Gastric Cancer Risk Assessment: A Multi-Phase Study.

PubMed

Tu, Huakang; Sun, Liping; Dong, Xiao; Gong, Yuehua; Xu, Qian; Jing, Jingjing; Bostick, Roberd M; Wu, Xifeng; Yuan, Yuan

2017-05-01

We aimed to assess a serological biopsy using five stomach-specific circulating biomarkers-pepsinogen I (PGI), PGII, PGI/II ratio, anti-Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) antibody, and gastrin-17 (G-17)-for identifying high-risk individuals and predicting risk of developing gastric cancer (GC). Among 12,112 participants with prospective follow-up from an ongoing population-based screening program using both serology and gastroscopy in China, we conducted a multi-phase study involving a cross-sectional analysis, a follow-up analysis, and an integrative risk prediction modeling analysis. In the cross-sectional analysis, the five biomarkers (especially PGII, the PGI/II ratio, and H. pylori sero-positivity) were associated with the presence of precancerous gastric lesions or GC at enrollment. In the follow-up analysis, low PGI levels and PGI/II ratios were associated with higher risk of developing GC, and both low (<0.5 pmol/l) and high (>4.7 pmol/l) G-17 levels were associated with higher risk of developing GC, suggesting a J-shaped association. In the risk prediction modeling analysis, the five biomarkers combined yielded a C statistic of 0.803 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.789-0.816) and improved prediction beyond traditional risk factors (C statistic from 0.580 to 0.811, P<0.001) for identifying precancerous lesions at enrollment, and higher serological biopsy scores based on the five biomarkers at enrollment were associated with higher risk of developing GC during follow-up (P for trend <0.001). A serological biopsy composed of the five stomach-specific circulating biomarkers could be used to identify high-risk individuals for further diagnostic gastroscopy, and to stratify individuals' risk of developing GC and thus to guide targeted screening and precision prevention.

SLFP: a stochastic linear fractional programming approach for sustainable waste management.

PubMed

Zhu, H; Huang, G H

2011-12-01

A stochastic linear fractional programming (SLFP) approach is developed for supporting sustainable municipal solid waste management under uncertainty. The SLFP method can solve ratio optimization problems associated with random information, where chance-constrained programming is integrated into a linear fractional programming framework. It has advantages in: (1) comparing objectives of two aspects, (2) reflecting system efficiency, (3) dealing with uncertainty expressed as probability distributions, and (4) providing optimal-ratio solutions under different system-reliability conditions. The method is applied to a case study of waste flow allocation within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. The obtained solutions are useful for identifying sustainable MSW management schemes with maximized system efficiency under various constraint-violation risks. The results indicate that SLFP can support in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among system efficiency, system cost and system-failure risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Domain Analysis on Reuse Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-11-06

return on the investment. The potential negative effects a "bad" domain analysis has on developing systems in the domain also increases the risks of a...importance of domain analysis as part of a software reuse program. A particular goal is to assist in avoiding the potential negative effects of ad hoc or...are specification objects discovered by performing object-oriented analysis. Object-based analysis approaches thus serve to capture a model of reality

Exercise programs may be effective in preventing a new episode of neck pain: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

de Campos, Tarcisio F; Maher, Chris G; Steffens, Daniel; Fuller, Joel T; Hancock, Mark J

2018-06-13

What is the effectiveness of interventions that aim to prevent a new episode of neck pain? Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised, controlled trials. People without neck pain at study entry. Any intervention aiming to prevent a future episode of neck pain. New episode of neck pain. Five trials including a total of 3852 individuals met the inclusion criteria. The pooled results from two randomised, controlled trials (500 participants) found moderate-quality evidence that exercise reduces the risk of a new episode of neck pain (OR 0.32, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.86). One of the meta-analysed trials included some co-interventions with the exercise. There was low-quality evidence from three randomised, controlled trials (3352 participants) that ergonomic programs do not reduce the risk of a new neck pain episode (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.35). This review found moderate-quality evidence supporting the effectiveness of an exercise program for reducing the risk of a new episode of neck pain. There is a need for high-quality randomised, controlled trials evaluating interventions to prevent new episodes of neck pain. PROSPERO CRD42017055174. [de Campos TF, Maher CG, Steffens D, Fuller JT, Hancock MJ (2018) Exercise programs may be effective in preventing a new episode of neck pain: a systematic review. Journal of Physiotherapy XX: XX-XX]. Copyright © 2018 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Practical Implementation of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis for Safety and Efficiency in Stereotactic Radiosurgery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younge, Kelly Cooper, E-mail: kyounge@med.umich.edu; Wang, Yizhen; Thompson, John

2015-04-01

Purpose: To improve the safety and efficiency of a new stereotactic radiosurgery program with the application of failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) performed by a multidisciplinary team of health care professionals. Methods and Materials: Representatives included physicists, therapists, dosimetrists, oncologists, and administrators. A detailed process tree was created from an initial high-level process tree to facilitate the identification of possible failure modes. Group members were asked to determine failure modes that they considered to be the highest risk before scoring failure modes. Risk priority numbers (RPNs) were determined by each group member individually and then averaged. Results: A totalmore » of 99 failure modes were identified. The 5 failure modes with an RPN above 150 were further analyzed to attempt to reduce these RPNs. Only 1 of the initial items that the group presumed to be high-risk (magnetic resonance imaging laterality reversed) was ranked in these top 5 items. New process controls were put in place to reduce the severity, occurrence, and detectability scores for all of the top 5 failure modes. Conclusions: FMEA is a valuable team activity that can assist in the creation or restructuring of a quality assurance program with the aim of improved safety, quality, and efficiency. Performing the FMEA helped group members to see how they fit into the bigger picture of the program, and it served to reduce biases and preconceived notions about which elements of the program were the riskiest.« less

A probabilistic safety analysis of incidents in nuclear research reactors.

PubMed

Lopes, Valdir Maciel; Agostinho Angelo Sordi, Gian Maria; Moralles, Mauricio; Filho, Tufic Madi

2012-06-01

This work aims to evaluate the potential risks of incidents in nuclear research reactors. For its development, two databases of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were used: the Research Reactor Data Base (RRDB) and the Incident Report System for Research Reactor (IRSRR). For this study, the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) was used. To obtain the result of the probability calculations for PSA, the theory and equations in the paper IAEA TECDOC-636 were used. A specific program to analyse the probabilities was developed within the main program, Scilab 5.1.1. for two distributions, Fischer and chi-square, both with the confidence level of 90 %. Using Sordi equations, the maximum admissible doses to compare with the risk limits established by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) were obtained. All results achieved with this probability analysis led to the conclusion that the incidents which occurred had radiation doses within the stochastic effects reference interval established by the ICRP-64.

Prevention of falls and fall-related injuries in community-dwelling seniors: an evidence-based analysis.

PubMed

2008-01-01

In early August 2007, the Medical Advisory Secretariat began work on the Aging in the Community project, an evidence-based review of the literature surrounding healthy aging in the community. The Health System Strategy Division at the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care subsequently asked the secretariat to provide an evidentiary platform for the ministry's newly released Aging at Home Strategy.After a broad literature review and consultation with experts, the secretariat identified 4 key areas that strongly predict an elderly person's transition from independent community living to a long-term care home. Evidence-based analyses have been prepared for each of these 4 areas: falls and fall-related injuries, urinary incontinence, dementia, and social isolation. For the first area, falls and fall-related injuries, an economic model is described in a separate report.Please visit the Medical Advisory Secretariat Web site, http://www.health.gov.on.ca/english/providers/program/mas/mas_about.html, to review these titles within the Aging in the Community series.AGING IN THE COMMUNITY: Summary of Evidence-Based AnalysesPrevention of Falls and Fall-Related Injuries in Community-Dwelling Seniors: An Evidence-Based AnalysisBehavioural Interventions for Urinary Incontinence in Community-Dwelling Seniors: An Evidence-Based AnalysisCaregiver- and Patient-Directed Interventions for Dementia: An Evidence-Based AnalysisSocial Isolation in Community-Dwelling Seniors: An Evidence-Based AnalysisThe Falls/Fractures Economic Model in Ontario Residents Aged 65 Years and Over (FEMOR) OBJECTIVE: To identify interventions that may be effective in reducing the probability of an elderly person's falling and/or sustaining a fall-related injury. Although estimates of fall rates vary widely based on the location, age, and living arrangements of the elderly population, it is estimated that each year approximately 30% of community-dwelling individuals aged 65 and older, and 50% of those aged 85 and older will fall. Of those individuals who fall, 12% to 42% will have a fall-related injury. Several meta-analyses and cohort studies have identified falls and fall-related injuries as a strong predictor of admission to a long-term care (LTC) home. It has been shown that the risk of LTC home admission is over 5 times higher in seniors who experienced 2 or more falls without injury, and over 10 times higher in seniors who experienced a fall causing serious injury. Falls result from the interaction of a variety of risk factors that can be both intrinsic and extrinsic. Intrinsic factors are those that pertain to the physical, demographic, and health status of the individual, while extrinsic factors relate to the physical and socio-economic environment. Intrinsic risk factors can be further grouped into psychosocial/demographic risks, medical risks, risks associated with activity level and dependence, and medication risks. Commonly described extrinsic risks are tripping hazards, balance and slip hazards, and vision hazards. NOTE: It is recognized that the terms "senior" and "elderly" carry a range of meanings for different audiences; this report generally uses the former, but the terms are treated here as essentially interchangeable. EVIDENCE-BASED ANALYSIS OF EFFECTIVENESS: Since many risk factors for falls are modifiable, what interventions (devices, systems, programs) exist that reduce the risk of falls and/or fall-related injuries for community-dwelling seniors? English language;published between January 2000 and September 2007;population of community-dwelling seniors (majority aged 65+); andrandomized controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-experimental trials, systematic reviews, or meta-analyses. special populations (e.g., stroke or osteoporosis; however, studies restricted only to women were included);studies only reporting surrogate outcomes; orstudies whose outcome cannot be extracted for meta-analysis. number of fallers, andnumber of falls resulting in injury/fracture. A search was performed in OVID MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, the Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), The Cochrane Library, and the International Agency for Health Technology Assessment (INAHTA) for studies published between January 2000 and September 2007. Furthermore, all studies included in a 2003 Cochrane review were considered for inclusion in this analysis. Abstracts were reviewed by a single author, and studies meeting the inclusion criteria outlined above were obtained. Studies were grouped based on intervention type, and data on population characteristics, fall outcomes, and study design were extracted. Reference lists were also checked for relevant studies. The quality of the evidence was assessed as high, moderate, low, or very low according to the GRADE methodology. The following 11 interventions were identified in the literature search: exercise programs, vision assessment and referral, cataract surgery, environmental modifications, vitamin D supplementation, vitamin D plus calcium supplementation, hormone replacement therapy (HRT), medication withdrawal, gait-stabilizing devices, hip protectors, and multifactorial interventions. Exercise programs were stratified into targeted programs where the exercise routine was tailored to the individuals' needs, and untargeted programs that were identical among subjects. Furthermore, analyses were stratified by exercise program duration (<6 months and ≥6 months) and fall risk of study participants. Similarly, the analyses on the environmental modification studies were stratified by risk. Low-risk study participants had had no fall in the year prior to study entry, while high-risk participants had had at least one fall in the previous year. A total of 17 studies investigating multifactorial interventions were identified in the literature search. Of these studies, 10 reported results for a high-risk population with previous falls, while 6 reported results for study participants representative of the general population. One study provided stratified results by fall risk, and therefore results from this study were included in each stratified analysis. Executive Summary Table 1:Summary of Meta-Analyses of Studies Investigating the Effectiveness of Interventions on the Risk of Falls in Community-Dwelling Seniors(*)InterventionRR [95% CI]GRADEExercise programs  1. Targeted programs        General population0.81 [0.67-0.98]Low      High-risk population0.93 [0.82-1.06]High      Short duration0.91 [0.73-1.13]High      Long duration0.89 [0.79-1.01]Moderate  2. Untargeted programs        General population0.78 [0.66-0.91]Moderate      High-risk population0.89 [0.72-1.10]Very low      Short duration0.85 [0.71-1.01]Low      Long duration0.76 [0.64-0.91]Moderate  3. Combined targeted vs. untargeted programs        General populationN/AN/A      High-risk population0.87 [0.57-1.34]Moderate      Short duration1.11 [0.73-1.70]High      Long duration0.73 [0.57-0.95]HighVision intervention      Assessment/referral1.12 [0.82-1.53]Moderate      Cataract surgery1.11 [0.92-1.35]ModerateEnvironmental modifications      Low-risk population1.03 [0.75-1.41]High      High-risk population0.66 [0.54-0.81]High      General population0.85 [0.75-0.97]HighDrugs/Nutritional supplements      Vitamin D (men and women)0.94 [0.77-1.14]High      Vitamin D (women only)0.55 [0.29-1.08]Moderate      Vitamin D and calcium (men and women)0.89 [0.74-1.07]Moderate      Vitamin D and calcium (women only)0.83 [0.73-0.95]Moderate      Hormone replacement therapy0.98 [0.80-1.20]Low      Medication withdrawal0.34 [0.16-0.74]†LowGait-stabilizing device0.43 [0.29-0.64]ModerateMultifactorial intervention      Geriatric screening (general population)0.87 [0.69-1.10]Very low      High-risk population0.86 [0.75-0.98]Low*CI refers to confidence interval; RR, relative risk.†Hazard ratio is reported, because RR was not available.Executive Summary Table 2:Summary of Meta-Analyses of Studies Investigating the Effectiveness of Interventions on the Risk of Fall-Related Injuries in Community-Dwelling Seniors*InterventionRR [95% CI]GRADEExercise programs      Targeted programs0.67 [0.51-0.89]Moderate    Untargeted programs0.57 [0.38-0.86]Low    Combined targeted vs untargeted programs0.31 [0.13-0.74]HighDrugs/nutritional supplements      Vitamin D plus calcium (women only)0.77 [0.49-1.21]ModerateGait-stabilizing device0.10 [0.01-0.74]ModerateHip protectors3.49 [0.68-17.97]†LowMultifactorial intervention      Geriatric screening (general population)0.90 [0.53-1.51]Low    High-risk population0.86 [0.66-1.11]Moderate*CI refers to confidence interval; RR, relative risk.†Odds ratio is reported, because RR was not available. High-quality evidence indicates that long-term exercise programs in mobile seniors and environmental modifications in the homes of frail elderly persons will effectively reduce falls and possibly fall-related injuries in Ontario's elderly population.A combination of vitamin D and calcium supplementation in elderly women will help reduce the risk of falls by more than 40%.The use of outdoor gait-stabilizing devices for mobile seniors during the winter in Ontario may reduce falls and fall-related injuries; however, evidence is limited and more research is required in this area.While psychotropic medication withdrawal may be an effective method for reducing falls, evidence is limited and long-term compliance has been demonstrated to be difficult to achieve.Multifactorial interventions in high-risk populations may be effective; however, the effect is only marginally significant, and the quality of evidence is low.

[Involvement of local dietetics professionals in risk communication program on food safety in municipal governments and their attitude towards the program].

PubMed

Akamatsu, Rie; Nomura, Marika; Horiguchi, Itsuko; Tanaka, Hisako; Marui, Eiji

2009-01-01

The objective of this study is to gather statistical references on food safety education that encourages competence of food choice from the view-point of food safety. A survey on the involvement of the risk communication program on food safety in municipal governments and the attitude of local dietetics professionals towards the program was conducted. In November, 2006, self-reported questionnaires were mailed to 1990 local dietetics professionals who worked in municipal governments in Japan. Descriptive statistics and cross tables were used for data analysis. 1162 questionnaires were mailed and 1130 available surveys were returned. Among the respondents, 41.5% answered that they inform the community about food safety, but 49.9% answered that they did not get information from the community. Most of the respondents answered that risk communication of food safety was important; 21.8% answered "extremely agree" and 62.3% answered "rather agree" on a scale of four from "extremely agree" to "do not agree". More than one-half of the dietetics professionals answered that their confidence in conducting risk communication was low; 20.5% answered "no confidence" and 52.5% answered "hardly have confidence" on a scale of four from "without confidence" to "with confidence". More than 80% of the respondents answered that they needed "professional knowledge" and "support from professional agencies". This study suggests that educating local dietetics professionals about professional knowledge on food safety, and obtaining support from special agencies will be essential in the upgrade of risk communication program on food safety in a community.

Risk factors for superficial surgical site infection after elective rectal cancer resection: a multivariate analysis of 8880 patients from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database.

PubMed

Sutton, Elie; Miyagaki, Hiromichi; Bellini, Geoffrey; Shantha Kumara, H M C; Yan, Xiaohong; Howe, Brett; Feigel, Amanda; Whelan, Richard L

2017-01-01

Superficial surgical site infection (sSSI) is one of the most common complications after colorectal resection. The goal of this study was to determine the comorbidities and operative characteristics that place patients at risk for sSSI in patients who underwent rectal cancer resection. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried (via diagnosis and Current Procedural Terminology codes) for patients with rectal cancer who underwent elective resection between 2005 and 2012. Patients for whom data concerning 27 demographic factors, comorbidities, and operative characteristics were available were eligible. A univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to identify possible risk factors for sSSI. A total of 8880 patients met the entry criteria and were included. sSSIs were diagnosed in 861 (9.7%) patients. Univariate analysis found 14 patients statistically significant risk factors for sSSI. Multivariate analysis revealed the following risk factors: male gender, body mass index (BMI) >30, current smoking, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), American Society of Anesthesiologists III/IV, abdominoperineal resection (APR), stoma formation, open surgery (versus laparoscopic), and operative time >217 min. The greatest difference in sSSI rates was noted in patients with COPD (18.9 versus 9.5%). Of note, 54.2% of sSSIs was noted after hospital discharge. With regard to the timing of presentation, univariate analysis revealed a statistically significant delay in sSSI presentation in patients with the following factors and/or characteristics: BMI <30, previous radiation therapy (RT), APR, minimally invasive surgery, and stoma formation. Multivariate analysis suggested that only laparoscopic surgery (versus open) and preoperative RT were risk factors for delay. Rectal cancer resections are associated with a high incidence of sSSIs, over half of which are noted after discharge. Nine patient and operative characteristics, including smoking, BMI, COPD, APR, and open surgery were found to be significant risk factors for SSI on multivariate analysis. Furthermore, sSSI presentation in patients who had laparoscopic surgery and those who had preoperative RT is significantly delayed for unclear reasons. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

AN APPROACH FOR DETERMINING REGIONAL LAND COVER AND SPECIES HABITAT CONSERVATION STATUS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST: THE SOUTHWEST REGIONAL GAP ANALYSIS PROJECT

EPA Science Inventory

The Gap Analysis Program (GAP) is a national interagency progranl that maps the distribution of plant communities and selected animal species and compares these distributions with land stewardship to identify biotic elements at potential risk of endangerment. GAP uses remote sens...

A Biologically Informed Framework for the Analysis of the PPAR Signaling Pathway using a Bayesian Network

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA’s ToxCastTM program seeks to combine advances in high-throughput screening technology with methodologies from statistics and computer science to develop high-throughput decision support tools for assessing chemical hazard and risk. To develop new methods of analysis of...

A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tortorelli, J.P.

1995-08-01

A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactivemore » materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.« less

Application of a risk analysis method to different technologies for producing a monoclonal antibody employed in hepatitis B vaccine manufacturing.

PubMed

Milá, Lorely; Valdés, Rodolfo; Tamayo, Andrés; Padilla, Sigifredo; Ferro, Williams

2012-03-01

CB.Hep-1 monoclonal antibody (mAb) is used for a recombinant Hepatitis B vaccine manufacturing, which is included in a worldwide vaccination program against Hepatitis B disease. The use of this mAb as immunoligand has been addressed into one of the most efficient steps of active pharmaceutical ingredient purification process. Regarding this, Quality Risk Management (QRM) provides an excellent framework for the risk management use in pharmaceutical manufacturing and quality decision-making applications. Consequently, this study sought applying a prospective risk analysis methodology Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) as QRM tool for analyzing different CB.Hep-1 mAb manufacturing technologies. As main conclusions FMEA was successfully used to assess risks associated with potential problems in CB.Hep-1 mAb manufacturing processes. The severity and occurrence of risks analysis evidenced that the percentage of very high severe risks ranged 31.0-38.7% of all risks and the huge majority of risks have a very low occurrence level (61.9-83.3%) in all assessed technologies. Finally, additive Risk Priority Number, was descending ordered as follow: transgenic plants (2636), ascites (2577), transgenic animals (2046) and hollow fiber bioreactors (1654), which also corroborated that in vitro technology, should be the technology of choice for CB.Hep-1 mAb manufacturing in terms of risks and mAb molecule quality. Copyright © 2011 The International Alliance for Biological Standardization. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Engineering and Safety Partnership Enhances Safety of the Space Shuttle Program (SSP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duarte, Alberto

2007-01-01

Project Management must use the risk assessment documents (RADs) as tools to support their decision making process. Therefore, these documents have to be initiated, developed, and evolved parallel to the life of the project. Technical preparation and safety compliance of these documents require a great deal of resources. Updating these documents after-the-fact not only requires substantial increase in resources - Project Cost -, but this task is also not useful and perhaps an unnecessary expense. Hazard Reports (HRs), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEAs), Critical Item Lists (CILs), Risk Management process are, among others, within this category. A positive action resulting from a strong partnership between interested parties is one way to get these documents and related processes and requirements, released and updated in useful time. The Space Shuttle Program (SSP) at the Marshall Space Flight Center has implemented a process which is having positive results and gaining acceptance within the Agency. A hybrid Panel, with equal interest and responsibilities for the two larger organizations, Safety and Engineering, is the focal point of this process. Called the Marshall Safety and Engineering Review Panel (MSERP), its charter (Space Shuttle Program Directive 110 F, April 15, 2005), and its Operating Control Plan emphasizes the technical and safety responsibilities over the program risk documents: HRs; FMEA/CILs; Engineering Changes; anomalies/problem resolutions and corrective action implementations, and trend analysis. The MSERP has undertaken its responsibilities with objectivity, assertiveness, dedication, has operated with focus, and has shown significant results and promising perspectives. The MSERP has been deeply involved in propulsion systems and integration, real time technical issues and other relevant reviews, since its conception. These activities have transformed the propulsion MSERP in a truly participative and value added panel, making a difference for the safety of the Space Shuttle Vehicle, its crew, and personnel. Because of the MSERP's valuable contribution to the assessment of safety risk for the SSP, this paper also proposes an enhanced Panel concept that takes this successful partnership concept to a higher level of 'true partnership'. The proposed panel is aimed to be responsible for the review and assessment of all risk relative to Safety for new and future aerospace and related programs.

Determinants of National Fire Plan Fuels Treatment Expenditures: A Revealed Preference Analysis for Northern New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Curt; Grimsrud, Kristine; Berrens, Robert P.

2009-10-01

The accumulation of fire fuels in forests throughout the world contributes significantly to the severity of wildfires. To combat the threat of wildfire, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), US federal land management agencies have implemented a number of forest restoration and wildfire risk reduction programs. In the spirit of revealed preference analyses, the objective of this study is to investigate the pattern and determinants of National Fire Plan (NFP) expenditures for fuel reduction treatments in northern New Mexico (USA). Estimation results from a set of Generalized Estimating Equations models are mixed with respect to risk reduction hypotheses, and also raise issues regarding how risk reduction should be defined for a region characterized by both pockets of urban sprawl into the WUI and large areas of chronic rural poverty. Program preferences for project funding under the federal Collaborative Forest Restoration Program in New Mexico are shown to be distinctly different (e.g., exhibiting greater concern for social equity) than for other NFP-funded projects.

Participant characteristics associated with greater reductions in waist circumference during a four-month, pedometer-based, workplace health program.

PubMed

Freak-Poli, Rosanne L A; Wolfe, Rory; Walls, Helen; Backholer, Kathryn; Peeters, Anna

2011-10-25

Workplace health programs have demonstrated improvements in a number of risk factors for chronic disease. However, there has been little investigation of participant characteristics that may be associated with change in risk factors during such programs. The aim of this paper is to identify participant characteristics associated with improved waist circumference (WC) following participation in a four-month, pedometer-based, physical activity, workplace health program. 762 adults employed in primarily sedentary occupations and voluntarily enrolled in a four-month workplace program aimed at increasing physical activity were recruited from ten Australian worksites in 2008. Seventy-nine percent returned at the end of the health program. Data included demographic, behavioural, anthropometric and biomedical measurements. WC change (before versus after) was assessed by multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses. Seven groupings of potential associated variables from baseline were sequentially added to build progressively larger regression models. Greater improvement in WC during the program was associated with having completed tertiary education, consuming two or less standard alcoholic beverages in one occasion in the twelve months prior to baseline, undertaking less baseline weekend sitting time and lower baseline total cholesterol. A greater WC at baseline was strongly associated with a greater improvement in WC. A sub-analysis in participants with a 'high-risk' baseline WC revealed that younger age, enrolling for reasons other than appearance, undertaking less weekend sitting time at baseline, eating two or more pieces of fruit per day at baseline, higher baseline physical functioning and lower baseline body mass index were associated with greater odds of moving to 'low risk' WC at the end of the program. While employees with 'high-risk' WC at baseline experienced the greatest improvements in WC, the other variables associated with greater WC improvement were generally indicators of better baseline health. These results indicate that employees who started with better health, potentially due to lifestyle or recent behavioural changes, were more likely to respond positively to the program. Future health program initiators should think innovatively to encourage all enrolees along the health spectrum to achieve a successful outcome.

General RMP Guidance - Table of Contents

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Risk Management Programs for Chemical Accident Prevention (40 CFR Part 68) guidance is in chapters; each covering topics such as applicability of the rule, and requirements for reporting five-year accident history and offsite consequence analysis.

Appendix E: Supplemental Risk Management Program Guidance for Ammonia Refrigeration Facilities

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Additional information for food processors, food distributors, refrigerated warehouses, and any other facility that has an ammonia refrigeration system. Includes details on exemption for farms, threshold quantity, and offsite consequence analysis.

Risk analysis based CWR track buckling safety evaluations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

As part of the Federal Railroad Administrations (FRA) track systems research program, the US DOTS Volpe Center is conducting analytic and experimental investigations to evaluate track lateral strength and stability limits for improved safety an...

Organizing Asian Pacific Islanders in an urban community to reduce HIV risk: a case study.

PubMed

Loue, S; Lloyd, L S; Phoombour, E

1996-10-01

We present a case study of community organization efforts within the Asian Pacific Islander communities of San Diego County to reduce the risk of HIV transmission. We utilized a five-phase process to implement the strategies of locality development, social planning, and social action: community analysis, program design and initiation, program implementation, program maintenance and consolidation, and program reassessment. An evaluation of the process indicates that there were increases over time in the project's activities as well as in the levels of interagency connectedness. This is one of the few reported efforts to organize Asian Pacific Islander groups to address HIV transmission. Key elements that led to the successful organization of the original project into a tax-exempt nonprofit entity (the Asian Pacific Islander Community AIDS Project) were emphasis on community ownership, reliance on group consensus, use of "gatekeepers" to access communities, simultaneous multilevel programming, and service to the community as a "coordinating" entity.

Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross-disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

Naval Ship Maintenance: An Analysis of the Dutch Shipbuilding Industry using the Knowledge Value Added, Systems Dynamics, and Integrated Risk Management Methodologies

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

and Integrated Risk Management Methodologies 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e...supply chains, risk management with real options, and sustainability . [dnford@nps.edu] Thomas J. Housel—Housel specializes in valuing intellectual...maintenance services for the RDN. Damen Schelde has used an ILS since 2002 to manage the shipbuilding process from project initiation through the

Risk management systems for health care and safety development on transplantation: a review and a proposal.

PubMed

Pretagostini, R; Gabbrielli, F; Fiaschetti, P; Oliveti, A; Cenci, S; Peritore, D; Stabile, D

2010-05-01

Starting from the report on medical errors published in 1999 by the US Institute of Medicine, a number of different approaches to risk management have been developed for maximum risk reduction in health care activities. The health care authorities in many countries have focused attention on patient safety, employing action research programs that are based on quite different principles. We performed a systematic Medline research of the literature since 1999. The following key words were used, also combining boolean operators and medical subheading terms: "adverse event," "risk management," "error," and "governance." Studies published in the last 5 years were particularly classified in various groups: risk management in health care systems; safety in specific hospital activities; and health care institutions' official documents. Methods of action researches have been analysed and their characteristics compared. Their suitability for safety development in donation, retrieval, and transplantation processes were discussed in the reality of the Italian transplant network. Some action researches and studies were dedicated to entire national healthcare systems, whereas others focused on specific risks. Many research programs have undergone critical review in the literature. Retrospective analysis has centered on so-called sentinel events to particularly analyze only a minor portion of the organizational phenomena, which can be the origin of an adverse event, an incident, or an error. Sentinel events give useful information if they are studied in highly engineered and standardized organizations like laboratories or tissue establishments, but they show several limits in the analysis of organ donation, retrieval, and transplantation processes, which are characterized by prevailing human factors, with high intrinsic risk and variability. Thus, they are poorly effective to deliver sure elements to base safety management improvement programs, especially regarding multidisciplinary systems with high complexity. In organ transplantation, the possibility to increase safety seems greater using proactive research, mainly centred on organizational processes together with retrospective analyses but not limited to sentinel event reports. Copyright (c) 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc.

SOCIAL STABILITY AND HIV RISK BEHAVIOR: EVALUATING THE ROLE OF ACCUMULATED VULNERABILITY

PubMed Central

German, Danielle; Latkin, Carl A.

2011-01-01

This study evaluated a cumulative and syndromic relationship among commonly co-occurring vulnerabilites (homelessness, incarceration, low-income, residential transition) in association with HIV-related risk behaviors among 635 low-income women in Baltimore. Analysis included descriptive statistics, logistic regression, latent class analysis and latent class regression. Both methods of assessing multidimensional instability showed significant associations with risk indicators. Risk of multiple partners, sex exchange, and drug use decreased significantly with each additional domain. Higher stability class membership (77%) was associated with decreased likelihood of multiple partners, exchange partners, recent drug use, and recent STI. Multidimensional social vulnerabilities were cumulatively and synergistically linked to HIV risk behavior. Independent instability measures may miss important contextual determinants of risk. Social stability offers a useful framework to understand the synergy of social vulnerabilities that shape sexual risk behavior. Social policies and programs aiming to enhance housing and overall social stability are likely to be beneficial for HIV prevention. PMID:21259043

A History of Sandia’s Water Decision Modeling and Analysis Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Pate, Ronald C.

This document provides a brief narrative, and selected project descriptions, that represent Sandia’s history involving data, modeling, and analysis related to water, energy-water nexus, and energy-water-agriculture nexus within the context of climate change. Sandia National Laboratories has been engaged since the early-1990s with program development involving data, modeling, and analysis projects that address the interdependent issues, risks, and technology-based mitigations associated with increasing demands and stresses being placed on energy, water, and agricultural/food resources, and the related impacts on their security and sustainability in the face of both domestic and global population growth, expanding economic development, and climate change.

Availability of HIV-related health services in adolescent substance abuse treatment programs.

PubMed

Knudsen, H K; Oser, C B

2009-10-01

Given that alcohol and drug abuse heightens the risk of adolescents acquiring HIV, substance abuse treatment programs for youths may represent an important site of HIV prevention. In this research, we explored the adoption of three HIV-related health services: risk assessment during intake, HIV prevention programing, and HIV testing. Data were collection through telephone interviews with 149 managers of adolescent-only substance abuse treatment programs in the USA. About half of these programs had adopted HIV risk assessment and HIV prevention. On-site HIV testing was less widely adopted, with only one in four programs offering this service. At the bivariate level, the availability of on-site primary medical care and the availability of an overnight level of care were positively associated with these three types of services. The association for the measure of an overnight level of care was no longer significant once medical services were controlled. However, in a separate analysis, it was found that programs offering an overnight level of care were much more likely to offer on-site medical care than outpatient-only facilities. There was also evidence that publicly funded treatment programs were more likely to offer HIV prevention and on-site HIV testing, after controlling for other organizational characteristics. Much more research about the adoption of HIV-related services in adolescent substance abuse treatment is needed, particularly to offer greater insight into why certain types of organizations are more likely to adopt these health services.

Manned Mars Mission program concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, E. C.; Johnson, P.; Pearson, J.; Tucker, W.

1988-01-01

This paper describes the SRS Manned Mars Mission and Program Analysis study designed to support a manned expedition to Mars contemplated by NASA for the purposes of initiating human exploration and eventual habitation of this planet. The capabilities of the interactive software package being presently developed by the SRS for the mission/program analysis are described, and it is shown that the interactive package can be used to investigate the impact of various mission concepts on the sensitivity of mass required in LEO, schedules, relative costs, and risk. The results, to date, indicate the need for an earth-to-orbit transportation system much larger than the present STS, reliable long-life support systems, and either advanced propulsion or aerobraking technology.

Assessment and Control of Spacecraft Charging Risks on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koontz, Steve; Valentine, Mark; Keeping, Thomas; Edeen, Marybeth; Spetch, William; Dalton, Penni

2004-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) operates in the F2 region of Earth's ionosphere, orbiting at altitudes ranging from 350 to 450 km at an inclination of 51.6 degrees. The relatively dense, cool F2 ionospheric plasma suppresses surface charging processes much of the time, and the flux of relativistic electrons is low enough to preclude deep dielectric charging processes. The most important spacecraft charging processes in the ISS orbital environment are: 1) ISS electrical power system interactions with the F2 plasma, 2) magnetic induction processes resulting from flight through the geomagnetic field and, 3) charging processes that result from interaction with auroral electrons at high latitude. Recently, the continuing review and evaluation of putative ISS charging hazards required by the ISS Program Office revealed that ISS charging could produce an electrical shock hazard to the ISS crew during extravehicular activity (EVA). ISS charging risks are being evaluated in an ongoing measurement and analysis campaign. The results of ISS charging measurements are combined with a recently developed model of ISS charging (the Plasma Interaction Model) and an exhaustive analysis of historical ionospheric variability data (ISS Ionospheric Specification) to evaluate ISS charging risks using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods. The PRA combines estimates of the frequency of occurrence and severity of the charging hazards with estimates of the reliability of various hazard controls systems, as required by NASA s safety and risk management programs, to enable design and selection of a hazard control approach that minimizes overall programmatic and personnel risk. The PRA provides a quantitative methodology for incorporating the results of the ISS charging measurement and analysis campaigns into the necessary hazard reports, EVA procedures, and ISS flight rules required for operating ISS in a safe and productive manner.

75 FR 58468 - Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Program Loss Reporting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-24

... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Program Loss Reporting AGENCY: Departmental Offices, Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Office, Treasury. ACTION: Notice and request for... 1995, Public Law 104-13 (44 U.S.C. 3506(c)(2)(A)). Currently, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program...

Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) Tutorial

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C. L. Smith; S. T. Beck; S. T. Wood

2008-08-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of computer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessment (PRAs). This volume is the tutorial manual for the SAPHIRE system. In this document, a series of lessons are provided that guide the user through basic steps common to most analyses preformed with SAPHIRE. The tutorial is divided into two major sections covering both basic and advanced features. The section covering basic topics contains lessons that lead the reader through development of a probabilistic hypothetical problem involving a vehicle accident, highlighting the program’smore » most fundamental features. The advanced features section contains additional lessons that expand on fundamental analysis features of SAPHIRE and provide insights into more complex analysis techniques. Together, these two elements provide an overview into the operation and capabilities of the SAPHIRE software.« less

Bearing restoration by grinding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanau, H.; Parker, R. J.; Zaretsky, E. V.; Chen, S. M.; Bull, H. L.

1976-01-01

A joint program was undertaken by the NASA Lewis Research Center and the Army Aviation Systems Command to restore by grinding those rolling-element bearings which are currently being discarded at aircraft engine and transmission overhaul. Three bearing types were selected from the UH-1 helicopter engine (T-53) and transmission for the pilot program. No bearing failures occurred related to the restoration by grinding process. The risk and cost of a bearing restoration by grinding programs was analyzed. A microeconomic impact analysis was performed.

Cleveland Clinic Rehabilitation Research Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

risks have been identified that would require a new risk analysis. The study is now registered as a pilot clinical trial. Use of tDCS , TMS and structural...using behavioral recording and electroencephalographic ( EEG ) recording and results were published. Study 2: The motor cortex (M1) and the...four pilot projects. Study 1: Magnetic stimulation and epilepsy In this study, transcranial magnetic stimulation ( TMS ) will be tested for its

Mapping for prevention: GIS models for directing childhood lead poisoning prevention programs.

PubMed Central

Miranda, Marie Lynn; Dolinoy, Dana C; Overstreet, M Alicia

2002-01-01

Environmental threats to children's health--especially low-level lead exposure--are complex and multifaceted; consequently, mitigation of these threats has proven costly and insufficient and has produced economic and racial disparities in exposure among populations. Policy makers, public health officials, child advocates, and others currently lack the appropriate infrastructure to evaluate children's risk and exposure potential across a broad range of risks. Unable to identify where the highest risk of exposure occurs, children's environmental health programs remain mitigative instead of preventive. In this article we use geographic information system spatial analysis of data from blood lead screening, county tax assessors, and the U.S. Census to predict statistically based lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit in six counties in North Carolina. The resulting model uses weighted risk factors to spatially locate modeled exposure zones, thus highlighting critical areas for targeted intervention. The methods presented here hold promise for application and extension to the other 94 North Carolina counties and nationally, as well as to other environmental health risks. PMID:12204831

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia in well water from a native community of Mexico.

PubMed

Balderrama-Carmona, Ana Paola; Gortáres-Moroyoqui, Pablo; Álvarez-Valencia, Luis Humberto; Castro-Espinoza, Luciano; Balderas-Cortés, José de Jesús; Mondaca-Fernández, Iram; Chaidez-Quiroz, Cristóbal; Meza-Montenegro, María Mercedes

2015-01-01

Cryptosporidium and Giardia are gastrointestinal disease-causing organisms transmitted by the fecal-oral route, zoonotic and prevalent in all socioeconomic segments with greater emphasis in rural communities. The goal of this study was to assess the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis of Potam dwellers consuming drinking water from communal well water. To achieve the goal, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was carried out as follows: (a) identification of Cryptosporidium oocysts and Giardia cysts in well water samples by information collection rule method, (b) assessment of exposure to healthy Potam residents, (c) dose-response modelling, and (d) risk characterization using an exponential model. All well water samples tested were positive for Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The QMRA results indicate a mean of annual risks of 99:100 (0.99) for cryptosporidiosis and 1:1 (1.0) for giardiasis. The outcome of the present study may drive decision-makers to establish an educational and treatment program to reduce the incidence of parasite-borne intestinal infection in the Potam community, and to conduct risk analysis programs in other similar rural communities in Mexico.

Risk aversion and willingness to pay for water quality: The case of non-farm rural residents.

PubMed

Larue, Bruno; West, Gale E; Singbo, Alphonse; Tamini, Lota Dabio

2017-07-15

Stated choice experiments are used to investigate the economic valuation of rural residents living in the province of Quebec for water quality improvements. In Quebec, rural residents played an important role in the setting of stricter environmental regulations. Unlike most stated choice experiments about the valuation of improvements in water quality, this study explicitly accounts for risk in the design and analysis of choice experiments. Risk in phosphorus and coliform reductions is introduced through a three-point uniform distribution in the choice sets. The results show greater support for constant absolute risk aversion preferences than for constant relative risk aversion. Rural residents value coliform and phosphorus reductions and the more educated ones are particularly willing to see the government tax farmers and taxpayers to secure such reductions. As the science improves and risk in water quality outcomes decrease and as the political weight of non-farm rural residents increase, it should be easier for governments to replace voluntary cost-share programs by polluter-payer programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cardiometabolic Risk Factor Changes Observed in Diabetes Prevention Programs in US Settings: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Zabetian, Azadeh; Goodman, Michael; Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin B.; Albright, Ann L.; Gregg, Edward W.; Ali, Mohammed K.

2016-01-01

Background The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) study showed that weight loss in high-risk adults lowered diabetes incidence and cardiovascular disease risk. No prior analyses have aggregated weight and cardiometabolic risk factor changes observed in studies implementing DPP interventions in nonresearch settings in the United States. Methods and Findings In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we pooled data from studies in the United States implementing DPP lifestyle modification programs (focused on modest [5%–7%] weight loss through ≥150 min of moderate physical activity per week and restriction of fat intake) in clinical, community, and online settings. We reported aggregated pre- and post-intervention weight and cardiometabolic risk factor changes (fasting blood glucose [FBG], glycosylated hemoglobin [HbA1c], systolic or diastolic blood pressure [SBP/DBP], total [TC] or HDL-cholesterol). We searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Clinicaltrials.gov databases from January 1, 2003, to May 1, 2016. Two reviewers independently evaluated article eligibility and extracted data on study designs, populations enrolled, intervention program characteristics (duration, number of core and maintenance sessions), and outcomes. We used a random effects model to calculate summary estimates for each outcome and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). To examine sources of heterogeneity, results were stratified according to the presence of maintenance sessions, risk level of participants (prediabetes or other), and intervention delivery personnel (lay or professional). Forty-four studies that enrolled 8,995 participants met eligibility criteria. Participants had an average age of 50.8 years and body mass index (BMI) of 34.8 kg/m2, and 25.2% were male. On average, study follow-up was 9.3 mo (median 12.0) with a range of 1.5 to 36 months; programs offered a mean of 12.6 sessions, with mean participant attendance of 11.0 core sessions. Sixty percent of programs offered some form of post-core maintenance (either email or in person). Mean absolute changes observed were: weight -3.77 kg (95% CI: -4.55; -2.99), HbA1c -0.21% (-0.29; -0.13), FBG -2.40 mg/dL (-3.59; -1.21), SBP -4.29 mmHg (-5.73, -2.84), DBP -2.56 mmHg (-3.40, 1.71), HDL +0.85 mg/dL (-0.10, 1.60), and TC -5.34 mg/dL (-9.72, -0.97). Programs with a maintenance component achieved greater reductions in weight (additional -1.66kg) and FBG (additional -3.14 mg/dl). Findings are subject to incomplete reporting and heterogeneity of studies included, and confounding because most included studies used pre-post study designs. Conclusions DPP lifestyle modification programs achieved clinically meaningful weight and cardiometabolic health improvements. Together, these data suggest that additional value is gained from these programs, reinforcing that they are likely very cost-effective. PMID:27459705

NASA Collaborative Approach Mitigates Environmentally-Driven Obsolescence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, Brian; Leeney, Bob; Richards, Joni

2016-01-01

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) missions, like Department of Defense (DoD) organizations, require the rigorous testing and qualification of critical materials. Obsolescence supply risks created by environmental requirements can affect the cost, schedule and performance of NASA missions and the resilience of critical infrastructure. The NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center helps to identify obsolescence supply risks driven by environmental requirements and works proactively with NASA Centers and Programs, the DoD, the European Space Agency (ESA) and other agencies and partners to identify and evaluate environmentally friendly alternatives. TEERM tracks environmental regulations, identifies the potential loss of material availability and works with NASA programs and Centers to evaluate potential impacts through a risk assessment approach. TEERM collaborative projects identify, demonstrate and evaluate commercially viable alternative technologies and materials. A major focus during the Space Shuttle Program was the need to replace ozone depleting substances that were used in spray foam and cleaning applications. The potential obsolescence of coatings containing hexavalent chromium and the risks associated with lead free solder were also of concern for the Space Shuttle and present ongoing risks to new programs such as the Space Launch System. One current project teams NASA and ESA in the evaluation and testing of individual coatings and coating systems as replacements for hexavalent chromium coatings in aerospace applications. The proactive, collaborative approach used by TEERM helps reduce the cost burden on any one team partner, reduces duplication of effort, and enhances the technical quality and overall applicability of the testing and analysis.

Operations Analysis of the 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noneman, Steven R.; Smith, C. A. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program is developing a second-generation reusable launch vehicle. The program goals include lowering the risk of loss of crew to 1 in 10,000 and reducing annual operations cost to one third of the cost of the Space Shuttle. The SLI missions include NASA, military and commercial satellite launches and crew and cargo launches to the space station. The SLI operations analyses provide an assessment of the operational support and infrastructure needed to operate candidate system architectures. Measures of the operability are estimated (i.e. system dependability, responsiveness, and efficiency). Operations analysis is used to determine the impact of specific technologies on operations. A conceptual path to reducing annual operations costs by two thirds is based on key design characteristics, such as reusability, and improved processes lowering labor costs. New operations risks can be expected to emerge. They can be mitigated with effective risk management with careful identification, assignment, tracking, and closure. SLI design characteristics such as nearly full reusability, high reliability, advanced automation, and lowered maintenance and servicing coupled with improved processes are contributors to operability and large operating cost reductions.

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Shield Ballistic Limit Analysis Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryan, Shannon

2013-01-01

This software implements penetration limit equations for common micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) shield configurations, windows, and thermal protection systems. Allowable MMOD risk is formulated in terms of the probability of penetration (PNP) of the spacecraft pressure hull. For calculating the risk, spacecraft geometry models, mission profiles, debris environment models, and penetration limit equations for installed shielding configurations are required. Risk assessment software such as NASA's BUMPERII is used to calculate mission PNP; however, they are unsuitable for use in shield design and preliminary analysis studies. The software defines a single equation for the design and performance evaluation of common MMOD shielding configurations, windows, and thermal protection systems, along with a description of their validity range and guidelines for their application. Recommendations are based on preliminary reviews of fundamental assumptions, and accuracy in predicting experimental impact test results. The software is programmed in Visual Basic for Applications for installation as a simple add-in for Microsoft Excel. The user is directed to a graphical user interface (GUI) that requires user inputs and provides solutions directly in Microsoft Excel workbooks.

NSAID-Avoidance Education in Community Pharmacies for Patients at High Risk for Acute Kidney Injury, Upstate New York, 2011

PubMed Central

Jang, Soo Min; Cerulli, Jennifer; Grabe, Darren W.; Fox, Chester; Vassalotti, Joseph A.; Prokopienko, Alexander J.

2014-01-01

Introduction Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are frequently associated with community-acquired acute kidney injury (AKI), a strong risk factor for development and progression of chronic kidney disease. Using access to prescription medication profiles, pharmacists can identify patients at high risk for NSAID-induced AKI. The primary objective of this analysis was to evaluate the effectiveness of a community pharmacy–based patient education program on patient knowledge of NSAID-associated renal safety concerns. Methods Patients receiving prescription medications for hypertension or diabetes mellitus were invited to participate in an educational program on the risks of NSAID use. A patient knowledge questionnaire (PKQ) consisting of 5 questions scored from 1 to 5 was completed before and after the intervention. Information was collected on age, race, sex, and frequency of NSAID use. Results A total of 152 participants (60% women) completed both the pre- and post-intervention questionnaire; average age was 54.6 (standard deviation [SD], 17.5). Mean pre-intervention PKQ score was 3.3 (SD, 1.4), and post-intervention score was 4.6 (SD, 0.9) (P = .002). Participants rated program usefulness (1 = not useful to 5 = extremely useful) as 4.2 (SD, 1.0). In addition, 48% reported current NSAID use and 67% reported that the program encouraged them to limit their use. Conclusion NSAID use was common among patients at high risk for AKI. A brief educational intervention in a community pharmacy improved patient knowledge on NSAID-associated risks. Pharmacists practicing in the community can partner with primary care providers in the medical home model to educate patients at risk for AKI. PMID:25523351

NSAID-avoidance education in community pharmacies for patients at high risk for acute kidney injury, upstate New York, 2011.

PubMed

Jang, Soo Min; Cerulli, Jennifer; Grabe, Darren W; Fox, Chester; Vassalotti, Joseph A; Prokopienko, Alexander J; Pai, Amy Barton

2014-12-18

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are frequently associated with community-acquired acute kidney injury (AKI), a strong risk factor for development and progression of chronic kidney disease. Using access to prescription medication profiles, pharmacists can identify patients at high risk for NSAID-induced AKI. The primary objective of this analysis was to evaluate the effectiveness of a community pharmacy-based patient education program on patient knowledge of NSAID-associated renal safety concerns. Patients receiving prescription medications for hypertension or diabetes mellitus were invited to participate in an educational program on the risks of NSAID use. A patient knowledge questionnaire (PKQ) consisting of 5 questions scored from 1 to 5 was completed before and after the intervention. Information was collected on age, race, sex, and frequency of NSAID use. A total of 152 participants (60% women) completed both the pre- and post-intervention questionnaire; average age was 54.6 (standard deviation [SD], 17.5). Mean pre-intervention PKQ score was 3.3 (SD, 1.4), and post-intervention score was 4.6 (SD, 0.9) (P = .002). Participants rated program usefulness (1 = not useful to 5 = extremely useful) as 4.2 (SD, 1.0). In addition, 48% reported current NSAID use and 67% reported that the program encouraged them to limit their use. NSAID use was common among patients at high risk for AKI. A brief educational intervention in a community pharmacy improved patient knowledge on NSAID-associated risks. Pharmacists practicing in the community can partner with primary care providers in the medical home model to educate patients at risk for AKI.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Improvements to the Ionizing Radiation Risk Assessment Program for NASA Astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Semones, E. J.; Bahadori, A. A.; Picco, C. E.; Shavers, M. R.; Flores-McLaughlin, J.

2011-01-01

To perform dosimetry and risk assessment, NASA collects astronaut ionizing radiation exposure data from space flight, medical imaging and therapy, aviation training activities and prior occupational exposure histories. Career risk of exposure induced death (REID) from radiation is limited to 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The Radiation Health Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is implementing a program to integrate the gathering, storage, analysis and reporting of astronaut ionizing radiation dose and risk data and records. This work has several motivations, including more efficient analyses and greater flexibility in testing and adopting new methods for evaluating risks. The foundation for these improvements is a set of software tools called the Astronaut Radiation Exposure Analysis System (AREAS). AREAS is a series of MATLAB(Registered TradeMark)-based dose and risk analysis modules that interface with an enterprise level SQL Server database by means of a secure web service. It communicates with other JSC medical and space weather databases to maintain data integrity and consistency across systems. AREAS is part of a larger NASA Space Medicine effort, the Mission Medical Integration Strategy, with the goal of collecting accurate, high-quality and detailed astronaut health data, and then securely, timely and reliably presenting it to medical support personnel. The modular approach to the AREAS design accommodates past, current, and future sources of data from active and passive detectors, space radiation transport algorithms, computational phantoms and cancer risk models. Revisions of the cancer risk model, new radiation detection equipment and improved anthropomorphic computational phantoms can be incorporated. Notable hardware updates include the Radiation Environment Monitor (which uses Medipix technology to report real-time, on-board dosimetry measurements), an updated Tissue-Equivalent Proportional Counter, and the Southwest Research Institute Radiation Assessment Detector. Also, the University of Florida hybrid phantoms, which are flexible in morphometry and positioning, are being explored as alternatives to the current NASA computational phantoms.

FACTORS AFFECTING INFECTION OR REINFECTION WITH SCHISTOSOMA HAEMATOBIUM IN COASTAL KENYA: SURVIVAL ANALYSIS DURING A NINE-YEAR, SCHOOL-BASED TREATMENT PROGRAM

PubMed Central

SATAYATHUM, SUDTIDA A.; MUCHIRI, ERIC M.; OUMA, JOHN H.; WHALEN, CHRISTOPHER C.; KING, CHARLES H.

2010-01-01

Urinary schistosomiasis remains a significant burden for Africa and the Middle East. Success of regional control strategies will depend, in part, on what influence local environmental and behavioral factors have on individual risk for primary infection and/or reinfection. Based on experience in a multi-year (1984–1992), school-based Schistosoma haematobium control program in Coast Province, Kenya, we examined risk for infection outcomes as a function of age, sex, pretreatment morbidity, treatment regimen, water contact, and residence location, with the use of life tables and Cox proportional-hazards analysis. After adjustment, location of residence, age less than 12 years, pretreatment hematuria, and incomplete treatment were the significant independent predictors of infection, whereas sex and frequency of water contact were not. We conclude that local physical features and age-related factors play a predominant role in S. haematobium transmission in this setting. In large population-based control programs, treatment allocation strategies may need to be tailored to local conditions on a village-by-village basis. PMID:16837713

The Committed Intimate Partnerships of Incarcerated African-American Men: Implications for Sexual HIV Transmission Risk and Prevention Opportunities.

PubMed

Khan, Maria R; El-Bassel, Nabila; Golin, Carol E; Scheidell, Joy D; Adimora, Adaora A; Coatsworth, Ashley M; Hu, Hui; Judon-Monk, Selena; Medina, Katie P; Wohl, David A

2017-10-01

Incarceration is thought to influence HIV transmission by disrupting partnerships that provide support and protect against sex risk-taking. Current correctional facility-based family-strengthening programs focus on marital partnerships, a minority of inmates' partnerships. Research on the sex partnerships of incarcerated African-American men and the types of partnerships most likely to protect against HIV-related sex risk is limited. Improved understanding can inform expansion of correctional facility-based family-strengthening programs to a greater proportion of protective partnerships and HIV risk reduction programs to partnerships vulnerable to sex risk. Project DISRUPT is a cohort study of African-American men being released from prison in North Carolina who were in committed heterosexual partnerships at prison entry. Using baseline survey data (N = 189), we conducted latent class analysis (LCA) to identify subgroups of participants with distinct relationship profiles and measured associations between relationship characteristics and multiple partnerships of inmates and their partners in the six months before incarceration. LCA indicated a two-class solution, with relationships distinguished by satisfaction/stability (satisfied/stable class: 58.0%; dissatisfied/unstable class: 42.0%); each class had comparable relationship length and levels of marriage and cohabitation. Dissatisfied/unstable relationships were associated with multiple partnerships among participants (AOR 2.93, 95% CI 1.50, 5.72) and partners (AOR 4.95, 95% CI 1.68, 14.58). Satisfaction indicators-versus length, marriage, or cohabitation-were the strongest independent correlates of inmates' and partners' multiple partnerships. Pre-incarceration economic deprivation, mental disorder symptoms, substance use, and violence in relationships were associated with dissatisfaction/instability. Prison-based programs designed to maintain healthy partnerships, strengthen relationship skills, and reduce HIV risk-taking and violence in relationships are warranted and should be targeted to both marital and nonmarital partnerships. Programming also should address the poverty, mental illness, and substance use factors that threaten relationship satisfaction/stability and increase HIV risk.

Developing and Implementing the Data Mining Algorithms in RAVEN

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sen, Ramazan Sonat; Maljovec, Daniel Patrick; Alfonsi, Andrea

The RAVEN code is becoming a comprehensive tool to perform probabilistic risk assessment, uncertainty quantification, and verification and validation. The RAVEN code is being developed to support many programs and to provide a set of methodologies and algorithms for advanced analysis. Scientific computer codes can generate enormous amounts of data. To post-process and analyze such data might, in some cases, take longer than the initial software runtime. Data mining algorithms/methods help in recognizing and understanding patterns in the data, and thus discover knowledge in databases. The methodologies used in the dynamic probabilistic risk assessment or in uncertainty and error quantificationmore » analysis couple system/physics codes with simulation controller codes, such as RAVEN. RAVEN introduces both deterministic and stochastic elements into the simulation while the system/physics code model the dynamics deterministically. A typical analysis is performed by sampling values of a set of parameter values. A major challenge in using dynamic probabilistic risk assessment or uncertainty and error quantification analysis for a complex system is to analyze the large number of scenarios generated. Data mining techniques are typically used to better organize and understand data, i.e. recognizing patterns in the data. This report focuses on development and implementation of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for different data mining algorithms, and the application of these algorithms to different databases.« less

[Effects of an Integrated Internet Addiction Prevention Program on Elementary Students' Self-regulation and Internet Addiction].

PubMed

Mun, So Youn; Lee, Byoung Sook

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an integrated internet addiction prevention program and test its effects on the self-regulation and internet addiction of elementary students who are at risk for internet addiction. A quasi-experimental study with a nonequivalent control group pretest-posttest design was used. Participants were assigned to the experimental group (n=28) or control group (n=28). Contents of the program developed in this study included provision of information about internet addiction, interventions for empowerment and methods of behavioral modification. A pre-test and two post-tests were done to identify the effects of the program and their continuity. Effects were testified using Repeated measures ANOVA, simple effect analysis, and Time Contrast. The self-regulation of the experimental group after the program was significantly higher than the control group. The score for internet addiction self-diagnosis and the internet use time in the experimental group were significantly lower than the control group. The effects of the integrated internet addiction prevention program for preventing internet addiction in elementary students at risk for internet addiction were validated.

RMP Guidance for Warehouses - Table of Contents

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This Risk Management Program (40 CFR Part 68) Guidance is organized into chapters, each covering a topic such as applicability of the rule, requirements for the five-year accident history and offsite consequence analysis, and emergency response.

Risk analysis based CWR track buckling safety evaluations

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-12-01

As part of the Federal Railroad Administration's (FRA) track systems research program, the US DOT'S Volpe Center is conducting analytic and experimental investigations to evaluate track lateral strength and stability limits for improved safety and pe...

Jungle Act Featured in RPLR Road Show.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kozlowski, James C.

1984-01-01

Some rules of law and legal analysis applied by courts to resolve issues of personal injury and negligence liability in youth sports programs are discussed in this article. Assumption of risk and responsibility for injury are explored. (DF)

Concurrent risk-reduction surgery in patients with increased lifetime risk for breast and ovarian cancer: an analysis of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database.

PubMed

Elmi, Maryam; Azin, Arash; Elnahas, Ahmad; McCready, David R; Cil, Tulin D

2018-05-14

Patients with genetic susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer are eligible for risk-reduction surgery. Surgical morbidity of risk-reduction mastectomy (RRM) with concurrent bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (BSO) is unknown. Outcomes in these patients were compared to patients undergoing RRM without BSO using a large multi-institutional database. A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted using the American College of Surgeon's National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) 2007-2016 datasets, comparing postoperative morbidity between patients undergoing RRM with patients undergoing RRM with concurrent BSO. Patients with genetic susceptibility to breast/ovarian cancer undergoing risk-reduction surgery were identified. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative major morbidity. Secondary outcomes included surgical site infections, reoperations, readmissions, length of stay, and venous thromboembolic events. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine predictors of postoperative morbidity and the adjusted effect of concurrent BSO on morbidity. Of the 5470 patients undergoing RRM, 149 (2.7%) underwent concurrent BSO. The overall rate of major morbidity and postoperative infections was 4.5% and 4.6%, respectively. There was no significant difference in the rate of postoperative major morbidity (4.5% vs 4.7%, p = 0.91) or any of the secondary outcomes between patients undergoing RRM without BSO vs. those undergoing RRM with concurrent BSO. Multivariable analysis showed Body Mass Index (OR 1.05; p < 0.001) and smoking (OR 1.78; p = 0.003) to be the only predictors associated with major morbidity. Neither immediate breast reconstruction (OR 1.02; p = 0.93) nor concurrent BSO (OR 0.94; p = 0.89) were associated with increased postoperative major morbidity. This study demonstrated that RRM with concurrent BSO was not associated with significant additional morbidity when compared to RRM without BSO. Therefore, this joint approach may be considered for select patients at risk for both breast and ovarian cancer.

The relationship between modifiable health risks and group-level health care expenditures. Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Research Committee.

PubMed

Anderson, D R; Whitmer, R W; Goetzel, R Z; Ozminkowski, R J; Dunn, R L; Wasserman, J; Serxner, S

2000-01-01

To assess the relationship between modifiable health risks and total health care expenditures for a large employee group. Risk data were collected through voluntary participation in health risk assessment (HRA) and worksite biometric screenings and were linked at the individual level to health care plan enrollment and expenditure data from employers' fee-for-service plans over the 6-year study period. The setting was worksite health promotion programs sponsored by six large private-sector and public-sector employers. Of the 50% of employees who completed the HRA, 46,026 (74.7%) met all inclusion criteria for the analysis. Eleven risk factors (exercise, alcohol use, eating, current and former tobacco use, depression, stress, blood pressure, cholesterol, weight, and blood glucose) were dichotomized into high-risk and lower-risk levels. The association between risks and expenditures was estimated using a two-part regression model, controlling for demographics and other confounders. Risk prevalence data were used to estimate group-level impact of risks on expenditures. Risk factors were associated with 25% of total expenditures. Stress was the most costly factor, with tobacco use, overweight, and lack of exercise also being linked to substantial expenditures. Modifiable risk factors contribute substantially to overall health care expenditures. Health promotion programs that reduce these risks may be beneficial for employers in controlling health care costs.

Nutrition risk screening: the interrelationship of food insecurity, food intake, and unintentional weight change among homebound elders.

PubMed

Sharkey, Joseph R

2004-01-01

Nutrition risk screening is a key component of the homedelivered meals program. To examine direct and indirect relationships among individual components of nutrition risk, path analysis was conducted on routinely collected data from 908 homebound elders who received home-delivered meals. The good fit of the model revealed that specific nutrition risk factors and indicators of nutritional risk were directly and indirectly associated with meal frequency and unintended weight change. With the heightened vulnerability for poor nutritional health among homebound elders who report food insecurity, policymakers and service providers should strengthen efforts to target individual components of nutrition risk rather than aggregate scores or categorical measures.

Establishing a Program for Individuals at High Risk for Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Cadiz, Fernando; Kuerer, Henry M.; Puga, Julio; Camacho, Jamile; Cunill, Eduardo; Arun, Banu

2013-01-01

Our need to create a program for individuals at high risk for breast cancer development led us to research the available data on such programs. In this paper, we summarize our findings and our thinking process as we developed our own program. Breast cancer incidence is increasing worldwide. Even though there are known risk factors for breast cancer development, approximately 60% of patients with breast cancer have no known risk factor, although this situation will probably change with further research, especially in genetics. For patients with risk factors based on personal or family history, different models are available for assessing and quantifying risk. Assignment of risk levels permits tailored screening and risk reduction strategies. Potential benefits of specialized programs for women with high breast cancer risk include more cost -effective interventions as a result of patient stratification on the basis of risk; generation of valuable data to advance science; and differentiation of breast programs from other breast cancer units, which can result in increased revenue that can be directed to further improvements in patient care. Guidelines for care of patients at high risk for breast cancer are available from various groups. However, running a high-risk breast program involves much more than applying a guideline. Each high-risk program needs to be designed by its institution with consideration of local resources and country legislation, especially related to genetic issues. Development of a successful high-risk program includes identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; developing a promotion plan; choosing a risk assessment tool; defining “high risk”; and planning screening and risk reduction strategies for the specific population served by the program. The information in this article may be useful for other institutions considering creation of programs for patients with high breast cancer risk. PMID:23833688

Meta-analysis of trials of streptococcal throat treatment programs to prevent rheumatic fever.

PubMed

Lennon, Diana; Kerdemelidis, Melissa; Arroll, Bruce

2009-07-01

Rheumatic fever (RF) is the commonest cause of pediatric heart disease globally. Penicillin for streptococcal pharyngitis prevents RF. Inequitable access to health care persists. To investigate RF prevention by treating streptococcal pharyngitis in school- and/or community-based programs. Medline, Old Medline, the Cochrane Library, DARE, Central, NHS, EED, NICE, NRMC, Clinical Evidence, CDC website, PubMed, and reference lists of retrieved articles. Known researchers in the field were contacted where possible. Randomized, controlled trials or trials of before/after design examining treatment of sore throats in schools or communities with RF as an outcome where data were able to be pooled for analysis. Two authors examined titles, abstracts, selected articles, and extracted data. Disagreements were resolved by consensus. QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TOOL: Review Manager version 4.2 to assess pooled relative risks and 95% confidence intervals. Six studies (of 677 screened) which met the criteria and could be pooled were included. Meta-analysis of these trials for RF control produced a relative risk of 0.41 (95% CI: 0.23-0.70). There was statistical heterogeneity (I = 70.5%). Hence a random effects analysis was conducted. Many studies were poor quality. Title and available abstracts of non-English studies were checked. There may be publication bias. This is the best available evidence in an area with imperfect information. It is expected acute RF cases would diminish by about 60% using a school or community clinic to treat streptococcal pharyngitis. This should be considered in high-risk populations.

Impact of the Higgins Nutrition Intervention Program on birth weight: a within-mother analysis.

PubMed

Higgins, A C; Moxley, J E; Pencharz, P B; Mikolainis, D; Dubois, S

1989-08-01

A study was conducted to evaluate the impact of the Higgins Nutrition Intervention Program of individual nutritional assessment and rehabilitation on pregnancy outcome in a group of urban low-income women. Developed as an adjunct to routine prenatal care, the Higgins program utilizes an individualized approach to dietary treatment that combines an assessment of the risk profile for the presenting pregnancy with the application of specific nutritional rehabilitation allowances to compensate for the negative impact of diagnosed risks. This report presents results of analyses evaluating differences in birth outcomes between 552 sibling pairs; each mother had participated in the Higgins program during the pregnancy of the second-born, but not of the first-born, member of her pair. After adjustment for parity and sex, the intervention infants weighed an average of 107 gm more than their matched siblings at birth (p less than .01). The rate of low birth weight was 50% lower among the intervention infants than among their siblings (p less than .01); rates of intra-uterine growth retardation and perinatal mortality were also lower in the intervention group. The high risk of poor pregnancy outcome in this group of urban low-income women was reduced by the Higgins program.

Development of a New Data Tool for Computing Launch and Landing Availability with Respect to Surface Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, K. Lee; Altino, Karen

2008-01-01

The Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch has a long history of expertise in the modeling and computation of statistical launch availabilities with respect to weather conditions. Their existing data analysis product, the Atmospheric Parametric Risk Assessment (APRA) tool, computes launch availability given an input set of vehicle hardware and/or operational weather constraints by calculating the climatological probability of exceeding the specified constraint limits, APRA has been used extensively to provide the Space Shuttle program the ability to estimate impacts that various proposed design modifications would have to overall launch availability. The model accounts for both seasonal and diurnal variability at a single geographic location and provides output probabilities for a single arbitrary launch attempt. Recently, the Shuttle program has shown interest in having additional capabilities added to the APRA model, including analysis of humidity parameters, inclusion of landing site weather to produce landing availability, and concurrent analysis of multiple sites, to assist in operational landing site selection. In addition, the Constellation program has also expressed interest in the APRA tool, and has requested several additional capabilities to address some Constellation-specific issues, both in the specification and verification of design requirements and in the development of operations concepts. The combined scope of the requested capability enhancements suggests an evolution of the model beyond a simple revision process. Development has begun for a new data analysis tool that will satisfy the requests of both programs. This new tool, Probabilities of Atmospheric Conditions and Environmental Risk (PACER), will provide greater flexibility and significantly enhanced functionality compared to the currently existing tool.

Using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling for regulatory benefit-cost analysis: application to the Western hemisphere travel initiative in the land environment.

PubMed

Willis, Henry H; LaTourrette, Tom

2008-04-01

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI-L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk-reducing effectiveness of WHTI-L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI-L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness-to-pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI-L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14-26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5-6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit-cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.

"In Our Corner": A Qualitative Descriptive Study of Patient Engagement in a Community-Based Care Coordination Program.

PubMed

Sefcik, Justine S; Petrovsky, Darina; Streur, Megan; Toles, Mark; O'Connor, Melissa; Ulrich, Connie M; Marcantonio, Sherry; Coburn, Ken; Naylor, Mary D; Moriarty, Helene

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to explore participants' experience in the Health Quality Partners (HQP) Care Coordination Program that contributed to their continued engagement. Older adults with multiple chronic conditions often have limited engagement in health care services and face fragmented health care delivery. This can lead to increased risk for disability, mortality, poor quality of life, and increased health care utilization. A qualitative descriptive design with two focus groups was conducted with a total of 20 older adults enrolled in HQP's Care Coordination Program. Conventional content analysis was the analytical technique. The overarching theme resulting from the analysis was "in our corner," with subthemes "opportunities to learn and socialize" and "dedicated nurses," suggesting that these are the primary contributing factors to engagement in HQP's Care Coordination Program. Study findings suggest that nurses play an integral role in patient engagement among older adults enrolled in a care coordination program.

A computer program for multiple decrement life table analyses.

PubMed

Poole, W K; Cooley, P C

1977-06-01

Life table analysis has traditionally been the tool of choice in analyzing distribution of "survival" times when a parametric form for the survival curve could not be reasonably assumed. Chiang, in two papers [1,2] formalized the theory of life table analyses in a Markov chain framework and derived maximum likelihood estimates of the relevant parameters for the analyses. He also discussed how the techniques could be generalized to consider competing risks and follow-up studies. Although various computer programs exist for doing different types of life table analysis [3] to date, there has not been a generally available, well documented computer program to carry out multiple decrement analyses, either by Chiang's or any other method. This paper describes such a program developed by Research Triangle Institute. A user's manual is available at printing costs which supplements the contents of this paper with a discussion of the formula used in the program listing.

Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger

2014-01-01

The purpose of the Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project is to extend current ground-based HRA risk prediction techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool. Ground-based HRA methodology has been shown to be a reasonable tool for short-duration space missions, such as Space Shuttle and lunar fly-bys. However, longer-duration deep-space missions, such as asteroid and Mars missions, will require the crew to be in space for as long as 400 to 900 day missions with periods of extended autonomy and self-sufficiency. Current indications show higher risk due to fatigue, physiological effects due to extended low gravity environments, and others, may impact HRA predictions. For this project, Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) will work with Human Health & Performance (HH&P) to establish what is currently used to assess human reliabiilty for human space programs, identify human performance factors that may be sensitive to long duration space flight, collect available historical data, and update current tools to account for performance shaping factors believed to be important to such missions. This effort will also contribute data to the Human Performance Data Repository and influence the Space Human Factors Engineering research risks and gaps (part of the HRP Program). An accurate risk predictor mitigates Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM).The end result will be an updated HRA model that can effectively predict risk on long-duration missions.

Coffee intake and risk of incident diabetes in Puerto Rican men: results from the Puerto Rico Heart Health Program.

PubMed

Fuhrman, B J; Smit, E; Crespo, C J; Garcia-Palmieri, M R

2009-06-01

To study prospectively the association of coffee intake with incident diabetes in the Puerto Rico Heart Health Program cohort, comprising 9824 middle-aged men (aged 35-79 years). Of 9824 men, 3869 did not provide a fasting blood sample at baseline, 1095 had prevalent diabetes and 131 were not given fasting glucose tests at any subsequent study visit. Thus, the present analysis includes 4685 participants. Diabetes was ascertained at baseline and at two study visits between 1968 and 1975 using fasting glucose tests and self-reports of physician-diagnosed diabetes or use of insulin or hypoglycaemic medication. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association of coffee intake with risk of incident diabetes while adjusting for covariates (age, BMI, physical activity, smoking, education, alcohol intake, family history of diabetes, intakes of milk and sugar). Five hundred and nineteen participants met the criteria for incident diabetes. Compared with those reporting intake of 1-2 servings of coffee/d, coffee abstainers were at reduced risk (OR = 0.64; 95 % CI 0.43, 0.94). Among coffee drinkers, there was a significant trend of decreasing risk by intake (P = 0.02); intake of >/=4 servings/d was associated with an odds ratio of 0.75 (95 % CI 0.58, 0.97). Study findings support a protective effect of coffee intake on diabetes risk, while also suggesting that abstainers may be at reduced risk.

Prevention of Falls and Fall-Related Injuries in Community-Dwelling Seniors

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Executive Summary In early August 2007, the Medical Advisory Secretariat began work on the Aging in the Community project, an evidence-based review of the literature surrounding healthy aging in the community. The Health System Strategy Division at the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care subsequently asked the secretariat to provide an evidentiary platform for the ministry’s newly released Aging at Home Strategy. After a broad literature review and consultation with experts, the secretariat identified 4 key areas that strongly predict an elderly person’s transition from independent community living to a long-term care home. Evidence-based analyses have been prepared for each of these 4 areas: falls and fall-related injuries, urinary incontinence, dementia, and social isolation. For the first area, falls and fall-related injuries, an economic model is described in a separate report. Please visit the Medical Advisory Secretariat Web site, http://www.health.gov.on.ca/english/providers/program/mas/mas_about.html, to review these titles within the Aging in the Community series. Aging in the Community: Summary of Evidence-Based Analyses Prevention of Falls and Fall-Related Injuries in Community-Dwelling Seniors: An Evidence-Based Analysis Behavioural Interventions for Urinary Incontinence in Community-Dwelling Seniors: An Evidence-Based Analysis Caregiver- and Patient-Directed Interventions for Dementia: An Evidence-Based Analysis Social Isolation in Community-Dwelling Seniors: An Evidence-Based Analysis The Falls/Fractures Economic Model in Ontario Residents Aged 65 Years and Over (FEMOR) Objective To identify interventions that may be effective in reducing the probability of an elderly person’s falling and/or sustaining a fall-related injury. Background Although estimates of fall rates vary widely based on the location, age, and living arrangements of the elderly population, it is estimated that each year approximately 30% of community-dwelling individuals aged 65 and older, and 50% of those aged 85 and older will fall. Of those individuals who fall, 12% to 42% will have a fall-related injury. Several meta-analyses and cohort studies have identified falls and fall-related injuries as a strong predictor of admission to a long-term care (LTC) home. It has been shown that the risk of LTC home admission is over 5 times higher in seniors who experienced 2 or more falls without injury, and over 10 times higher in seniors who experienced a fall causing serious injury. Falls result from the interaction of a variety of risk factors that can be both intrinsic and extrinsic. Intrinsic factors are those that pertain to the physical, demographic, and health status of the individual, while extrinsic factors relate to the physical and socio-economic environment. Intrinsic risk factors can be further grouped into psychosocial/demographic risks, medical risks, risks associated with activity level and dependence, and medication risks. Commonly described extrinsic risks are tripping hazards, balance and slip hazards, and vision hazards. Note: It is recognized that the terms “senior” and “elderly” carry a range of meanings for different audiences; this report generally uses the former, but the terms are treated here as essentially interchangeable. Evidence-Based Analysis of Effectiveness Research Question Since many risk factors for falls are modifiable, what interventions (devices, systems, programs) exist that reduce the risk of falls and/or fall-related injuries for community-dwelling seniors? Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria Inclusion Criteria English language; published between January 2000 and September 2007; population of community-dwelling seniors (majority aged 65+); and randomized controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-experimental trials, systematic reviews, or meta-analyses. Exclusion Criteria special populations (e.g., stroke or osteoporosis; however, studies restricted only to women were included); studies only reporting surrogate outcomes; or studies whose outcome cannot be extracted for meta-analysis. Outcomes of Interest number of fallers, and number of falls resulting in injury/fracture. Search Strategy A search was performed in OVID MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, the Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), The Cochrane Library, and the International Agency for Health Technology Assessment (INAHTA) for studies published between January 2000 and September 2007. Furthermore, all studies included in a 2003 Cochrane review were considered for inclusion in this analysis. Abstracts were reviewed by a single author, and studies meeting the inclusion criteria outlined above were obtained. Studies were grouped based on intervention type, and data on population characteristics, fall outcomes, and study design were extracted. Reference lists were also checked for relevant studies. The quality of the evidence was assessed as high, moderate, low, or very low according to the GRADE methodology. Summary of Findings The following 11 interventions were identified in the literature search: exercise programs, vision assessment and referral, cataract surgery, environmental modifications, vitamin D supplementation, vitamin D plus calcium supplementation, hormone replacement therapy (HRT), medication withdrawal, gait-stabilizing devices, hip protectors, and multifactorial interventions. Exercise programs were stratified into targeted programs where the exercise routine was tailored to the individuals’ needs, and untargeted programs that were identical among subjects. Furthermore, analyses were stratified by exercise program duration (<6 months and ≥6 months) and fall risk of study participants. Similarly, the analyses on the environmental modification studies were stratified by risk. Low-risk study participants had had no fall in the year prior to study entry, while high-risk participants had had at least one fall in the previous year. A total of 17 studies investigating multifactorial interventions were identified in the literature search. Of these studies, 10 reported results for a high-risk population with previous falls, while 6 reported results for study participants representative of the general population. One study provided stratified results by fall risk, and therefore results from this study were included in each stratified analysis. Executive Summary Table 1: Summary of Meta-Analyses of Studies Investigating the Effectiveness of Interventions on the Risk of Falls in Community-Dwelling Seniors* Intervention RR [95% CI] GRADE Exercise programs   1. Targeted programs           General population 0.81 [0.67–0.98] Low       High-risk population 0.93 [0.82–1.06] High       Short duration 0.91 [0.73–1.13] High       Long duration 0.89 [0.79–1.01] Moderate   2. Untargeted programs           General population 0.78 [0.66–0.91] Moderate       High-risk population 0.89 [0.72–1.10] Very low       Short duration 0.85 [0.71–1.01] Low       Long duration 0.76 [0.64–0.91] Moderate   3. Combined targeted vs. untargeted programs           General population N/A N/A       High-risk population 0.87 [0.57–1.34] Moderate       Short duration 1.11 [0.73–1.70] High       Long duration 0.73 [0.57–0.95] High Vision intervention       Assessment/referral 1.12 [0.82–1.53] Moderate       Cataract surgery 1.11 [0.92–1.35] Moderate Environmental modifications       Low-risk population 1.03 [0.75–1.41] High       High-risk population 0.66 [0.54–0.81] High       General population 0.85 [0.75–0.97] High Drugs/Nutritional supplements       Vitamin D (men and women) 0.94 [0.77–1.14] High       Vitamin D (women only) 0.55 [0.29–1.08] Moderate       Vitamin D and calcium (men and women) 0.89 [0.74–1.07] Moderate       Vitamin D and calcium (women only) 0.83 [0.73–0.95] Moderate       Hormone replacement therapy 0.98 [0.80–1.20] Low       Medication withdrawal 0.34 [0.16–0.74]† Low Gait-stabilizing device 0.43 [0.29–0.64] Moderate Multifactorial intervention       Geriatric screening (general population) 0.87 [0.69–1.10] Very low       High-risk population 0.86 [0.75–0.98] Low * CI refers to confidence interval; RR, relative risk. † Hazard ratio is reported, because RR was not available. Executive Summary Table 2: Summary of Meta-Analyses of Studies Investigating the Effectiveness of Interventions on the Risk of Fall-Related Injuries in Community-Dwelling Seniors* Intervention RR [95% CI] GRADE Exercise programs         Targeted programs 0.67 [0.51–0.89] Moderate     Untargeted programs 0.57 [0.38–0.86] Low     Combined targeted vs untargeted programs 0.31 [0.13–0.74] High Drugs/nutritional supplements         Vitamin D plus calcium (women only) 0.77 [0.49–1.21] Moderate Gait-stabilizing device 0.10 [0.01–0.74] Moderate Hip protectors 3.49 [0.68–17.97]† Low Multifactorial intervention         Geriatric screening (general population) 0.90 [0.53–1.51] Low     High-risk population 0.86 [0.66–1.11] Moderate * CI refers to confidence interval; RR, relative risk. † Odds ratio is reported, because RR was not available. Conclusions High-quality evidence indicates that long-term exercise programs in mobile seniors and environmental modifications in the homes of frail elderly persons will effectively reduce falls and possibly fall-related injuries in Ontario’s elderly population. A combination of vitamin D and calcium supplementation in elderly women will help reduce the risk of falls by more than 40%. The use of outdoor gait-stabilizing devices for mobile seniors during the winter in Ontario may reduce falls and fall-related injuries; however, evidence is limited and more research is required in this area. While psychotropic medication withdrawal may be an effective method for reducing falls, evidence is limited and long-term compliance has been demonstrated to be difficult to achieve. Multifactorial interventions in high-risk populations may be effective; however, the effect is only marginally significant, and the quality of evidence is low. PMID:23074507

A Meta-Analysis of Supplemental Educational Services in Ohio: Implications for the Reauthorization of ESEA

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beese, Jane A.

2014-01-01

The Supplemental Educational Services (SES) policy, under No Child Left Behind, requires underperforming Title I schools to offer academic tutoring to eligible students. A meta-analysis of findings from 44 external evaluations of district operated SES programs in Ohio showed that scores increased on the academic performance of at-risk students.…

Comparison and Analysis of Toxcast Data with In Vivo Data for Food-Relevant Compounds Using The Risk21 Approach

EPA Science Inventory

The ToxCast program has generated a great wealth of in vitro high throughput screening (HTS) data on a large number of compounds, providing a unique resource of information on the bioactivity of these compounds. However, analysis of these data are ongoing, and interpretation and ...

ENRE 655 Class Project. Development of the Initial Main Parachute Failure Probability for the Constellation Program (CxP) Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Parachute Assembly System (CPAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuqua, Bryan C.

2010-01-01

Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM) are two key requirements the Constellation Program (CxP) measure against. To date, one of the top risk drivers for both LOC and LOM has been Orion's Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Parachute Assembly System (CPAS). Even though the Orion CPAS is one of the top risk drivers of CxP, it has been very difficult to obtain any relevant data to accurately quantify the risk. At first glance, it would seem that a parachute system would be very reliable given the track record of Apollo and Soyuz. Given the success of those two programs, the amount of data is considered to be statistically insignificant. However, due to CxP having LOC/LOM as key design requirements, it was necessary for Orion to generate a valid prior to begin the Risk Informed Design process. To do so, the Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Space Shuttle & Exploration Analysis Section generated an initial failure probability for Orion to use in preparation for the Orion Systems Requirements Review (SRR).

Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.; Bigler, Mark; Rogers, James H.

2014-01-01

Over the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These risk assessments typically cover the concept phase of a DRM, i.e. when little more than a general idea of the mission is known and are used to help establish "best estimates" for proposed program and agency level risk requirements. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.

Probability of Loss of Crew Achievability Studies for NASA's Exploration Systems Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.; Bigler, Mark; Rogers, James H.

2015-01-01

Over the last few years, NASA has been evaluating various vehicle designs for multiple proposed design reference missions (DRM) beyond low Earth orbit in support of its Exploration Systems Development (ESD) programs. This paper addresses several of the proposed missions and the analysis techniques used to assess the key risk metric, probability of loss of crew (LOC). Probability of LOC is a metric used to assess the safety risk as well as a design requirement. These risk assessments typically cover the concept phase of a DRM, i.e. when little more than a general idea of the mission is known and are used to help establish "best estimates" for proposed program and agency level risk requirements. These assessments or studies were categorized as LOC achievability studies to help inform NASA management as to what "ball park" estimates of probability of LOC could be achieved for each DRM and were eventually used to establish the corresponding LOC requirements. Given that details of the vehicles and mission are not well known at this time, the ground rules, assumptions, and consistency across the programs become the important basis of the assessments as well as for the decision makers to understand.

ePORT, NASA's Computer Database Program for System Safety Risk Management Oversight (Electronic Project Online Risk Tool)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Paul W.

2008-01-01

ePORT (electronic Project Online Risk Tool) provides a systematic approach to using an electronic database program to manage a program/project risk management processes. This presentation will briefly cover the standard risk management procedures, then thoroughly cover NASA's Risk Management tool called ePORT. This electronic Project Online Risk Tool (ePORT) is a web-based risk management program that provides a common framework to capture and manage risks, independent of a programs/projects size and budget. It is used to thoroughly cover the risk management paradigm providing standardized evaluation criterion for common management reporting, ePORT improves Product Line, Center and Corporate Management insight, simplifies program/project manager reporting, and maintains an archive of data for historical reference.

Bread and Shoulders: Reversing the Downward Spiral, a Qualitative Analyses of the Effects of a Housing First-Type Program in France.

PubMed

Rhenter, Pauline; Moreau, Delphine; Laval, Christian; Mantovani, Jean; Albisson, Amandine; Suderie, Guillaume; Boucekine, Mohamed; Tinland, Aurelie; Loubière, Sandrine; Greacen, Tim; Auquier, Pascal; Girard, Vincent

2018-03-14

This paper is a qualitative analysis of the effects of accompagnement , a support framework, on recovery trajectories of people with long-term homelessness and severe psychiatric disorders during 24 months in a Housing First-type program in France. A comprehensive methodology based on grounded theory was used to construct an interview guide, conduct multiple interviews with 35 Housing First participants sampled for heterogeneity, and produce memos on their trajectories before and after entering the program based on interview information. Thematic analysis of a representative subsample ( n = 13) of memos identified 12 objective factors and 6 subjective factors key to the recovery process. An in-depth re-analysis of the memos generated four recovery themes: (1) the need for secure space favorable to self-reflexivity; (2) a "honeymoon" effect; (3) the importance of even weak social ties; (4) support from and hope among peers. Three challenges to recovery were identified: (1) finding a balance between protection and risk; (2) breaking downward spirals; (3) bifurcating the trajectory. This study provides new insight into the recovery process, understood as a non-linear transformation of an experience-the relationship between objective life conditions and subjective perception of those conditions-which reinforces protective support over risk elements.

Fine and Gray competing risk regression model to study the cause-specific under-five child mortality in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Mohammad, Khandoker Akib; Fatima-Tuz-Zahura, Most; Bari, Wasimul

2017-01-28

The cause-specific under-five mortality of Bangladesh has been studied by fitting cumulative incidence function (CIF) based Fine and Gray competing risk regression model (1999). For the purpose of analysis, Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), 2011 data set was used. Three types of mode of mortality for the under-five children are considered. These are disease, non-disease and other causes. Product-Limit survival probabilities for the under-five child mortality with log-rank test were used to select a set of covariates for the regression model. The covariates found to have significant association in bivariate analysis were only considered in the regression analysis. Potential determinants of under-five child mortality due to disease is size of child at birth, while gender of child, NGO (non-government organization) membership of mother, mother's education level, and size of child at birth are due to non-disease and age of mother at birth, NGO membership of mother, and mother's education level are for the mortality due to other causes. Female participation in the education programs needs to be increased because of the improvement of child health and government should arrange family and social awareness programs as well as health related programs for women so that they are aware of their child health.

Bread and Shoulders: Reversing the Downward Spiral, a Qualitative Analyses of the Effects of a Housing First-Type Program in France

PubMed Central

Rhenter, Pauline; Moreau, Delphine; Laval, Christian; Mantovani, Jean; Albisson, Amandine; Suderie, Guillaume; Boucekine, Mohamed; Tinland, Aurelie; Loubière, Sandrine; Greacen, Tim; Auquier, Pascal; Girard, Vincent

2018-01-01

This paper is a qualitative analysis of the effects of accompagnement, a support framework, on recovery trajectories of people with long-term homelessness and severe psychiatric disorders during 24 months in a Housing First-type program in France. A comprehensive methodology based on grounded theory was used to construct an interview guide, conduct multiple interviews with 35 Housing First participants sampled for heterogeneity, and produce memos on their trajectories before and after entering the program based on interview information. Thematic analysis of a representative subsample (n = 13) of memos identified 12 objective factors and 6 subjective factors key to the recovery process. An in-depth re-analysis of the memos generated four recovery themes: (1) the need for secure space favorable to self-reflexivity; (2) a “honeymoon” effect; (3) the importance of even weak social ties; (4) support from and hope among peers. Three challenges to recovery were identified: (1) finding a balance between protection and risk; (2) breaking downward spirals; (3) bifurcating the trajectory. This study provides new insight into the recovery process, understood as a non-linear transformation of an experience—the relationship between objective life conditions and subjective perception of those conditions—which reinforces protective support over risk elements. PMID:29538346

Metrics for the National SCADA Test Bed Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Craig, Philip A.; Mortensen, J.; Dagle, Jeffery E.

2008-12-05

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE-OE) National SCADA Test Bed (NSTB) Program is providing valuable inputs into the electric industry by performing topical research and development (R&D) to secure next generation and legacy control systems. In addition, the program conducts vulnerability and risk analysis, develops tools, and performs industry liaison, outreach and awareness activities. These activities will enhance the secure and reliable delivery of energy for the United States. This report will describe metrics that could be utilized to provide feedback to help enhance the effectiveness of the NSTB Program.

Association between a polymorphism in the human programmed death-1 (PD-1) gene and cytomegalovirus infection after kidney transplantation.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Thomas W; Halimi, Jean-Michel; Büchler, Mathias; Velge-Roussel, Florence; Goudeau, Alain; Al-Najjar, Azmi; Marliere, Jean-Frédéric; Lebranchu, Yvon; Baron, Christophe

2010-01-01

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is the most frequent infectious disease following organ transplantation. Strategies to prevent this infection remain a matter for debate, and discovering genetic risk factors might assist in adapting preventive strategies. By inhibiting IFNgamma production, programmed death 1 (PD-1) has a crucial role in anti-CMV immune response. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) within intron 4 of the gene (rs11568821), called PD-1.3, has recently been reported to be clinically relevant in several immune disorders. However, its association with CMV infection has never been reported. In this study, the risk of CMV infection according to PD-1.3 genotype was investigated in 469 kidney graft recipients transplanted between 1995 and 2005. It was found that the A allele was associated with the risk of CMV infection in seropositive patients who did not receive CMV prophylaxis (OR=2.60, p=0.006). Multivariate analysis including other risk factors for CMV infection showed that this allele was independently associated with CMV infection (OR=2.54; p=0.010). Interestingly, combined analysis of PD-1.3 with the IL12B 3'UTR SNPs (previously shown to be associated with CMV infection) revealed that patients with the PD-1.3 A allele had a much higher risk of CMV infection compared to those having neither risk allele (OR=3.76; p=0.0003). This study identified a new genetic risk factor for CMV infection after kidney transplantation and suggests that an adjustment of CMV prophylaxis based on genetic markers would merit further investigation.

[Genetic tests in oncology: from identification of high risk groups to therapy].

PubMed

Sgambato, Alessandro; Ripani, Maurizio; Romano Spica, Vincenzo

2010-01-01

The development of genetic epidemiology in oncology has made possible more frequent analysis of high risk groups, allowing the development of promising susceptibility indicators. The main public health implications include screening and new perspectives for pharmacogenetics and nutrigenomics. The study of genetic variants allows the evaluation of individual risk of developing a disease and has important implications in primary and secondary prevention programs. The analysis of somatic mutations present in tumour cells may contribute to selecting the optimal treatment on an individual basis and to reducing the occurrence of adverse effects of chemotherapy. The authors give a summary of the state of the art of this field and analyze the potential applications of genetic tests in oncology, from identification of high risk groups to defining individualized therapies with particular emphasis on implications for prevention.

A Statewide Evaluation of the California Medical Supervision Program Using Cholinesterase Electronic Laboratory Reporting Data

PubMed Central

Laribi, Ouahiba; Malig, Brian; Sutherland-Ashley, Katherine; Broadwin, Rachel; Wieland, Walker; Salocks, Charles

2017-01-01

The California Medical Supervision program is designed to protect workers who regularly mix, load, or apply the highly toxic Category I and II organophosphates and carbamates from overexposure by monitoring cholinesterase (ChE) inhibition in plasma and red blood cells. Since January 2011, testing laboratories are required to report test results electronically to the California Department of Pesticide Regulation who shares it with the Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment for evaluation. The purpose of this study is to assess the utility of this reporting in evaluating the effectiveness of the Program for illness surveillance and prevention. From 2011 to 2013, we received more than 90 000 test results. Despite data gaps and data quality issues, we were able to perform spatial and temporal analyses and developed a screening tool to identify individuals potentially at risk of overexposure. The data analysis provided some evidence that the Program is effective in protecting agricultural workers handling the most toxic ChE-inhibiting pesticides even though it also identified some areas of potential concerns with individuals that appeared lacking corrective actions in the workplace in response to excessive ChE depressions and parts of the state with disproportionately at-risk individuals. However, changes to the electronic reporting are needed to more accurately identify tests related to the Program and therefore improve the utility of the data received. Moreover, data analysis also revealed that electronic reporting has its limitation in evaluating the Program.

Impact of family planning programs in reducing high-risk births due to younger and older maternal age, short birth intervals, and high parity.

PubMed

Brown, Win; Ahmed, Saifuddin; Roche, Neil; Sonneveldt, Emily; Darmstadt, Gary L

2015-08-01

Several studies show that maternal and neonatal/infant mortality risks increase with younger and older maternal age (<18 and >34 years), high parity (birth order >3), and short birth intervals (<24 months). Family planning programs are widely viewed as having contributed to substantial maternal and neonatal mortality decline through contraceptive use--both by reducing unwanted births and by reducing the burden of these high-risk births. However, beyond averting births, the empirical evidence for the role of family planning in reducing high-risk births at population level is limited. We examined data from 205 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), conducted between 1985 and 2013, to describe the trends in high-risk births and their association with the pace of progress in modern contraceptive prevalence rate (yearly increase in rate of MCPR) in 57 developing countries. Using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique, we then examine the contributions of family planning program, economic development (GDP per capita), and educational improvement (secondary school completion rate) on the progress of MCPR in order to link the net contribution of family planning program to the reduction of high-risk births mediated through contraceptive use. Countries that had the fastest progress in improving MCPR experienced the greatest declines in high-risk births due to short birth intervals (<24 months), high parity births (birth order >3), and older maternal age (>35 years). Births among younger women <18 years, however, did not decline significantly during this period. The decomposition analysis suggests that 63% of the increase in MCPR was due to family planning program efforts, 21% due to economic development, and 17% due to social advancement through women's education. Improvement in MCPR, predominately due to family planning programs, is a major driver of the decline in the burden of high-risk births due to high parity, shorter birth intervals, and older maternal age in developing countries. The lack of progress in the decline of births in younger women <18 years of age underscores the need for more attention to ensure that quality contraceptive methods are available to adolescent women in order to delay first births. This study substantiates the significance of family planning programming as a major health intervention for preventing high-risk births and associated maternal and child mortality, but it highlights the need for concerted efforts to strengthen service provision for adolescents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recent developments of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Torng, T.; Thacker, B.; Riha, D.; Leung, C. P.

1992-01-01

The NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general purpose structural analysis methods to compute the probabilistic response and the reliability of engineering structures. Uncertainty in loading, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include nonlinear finite element and boundary element methods. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. The scope of the code has recently been expanded to include probabilistic life and fatigue prediction of structures in terms of component and system reliability and risk analysis of structures considering cost of failure. The code is currently being extended to structural reliability considering progressive crack propagation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the new capabilities.

2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

2010-01-01

Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

"Employment and arthritis: making it work" a randomized controlled trial evaluating an online program to help people with inflammatory arthritis maintain employment (study protocol).

PubMed

Carruthers, Erin C; Rogers, Pamela; Backman, Catherine L; Goldsmith, Charles H; Gignac, Monique A; Marra, Carlo; Village, Judy; Li, Linda C; Esdaile, John M; Lacaille, Diane

2014-07-21

Arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions are the leading cause of long-term work disability (WD), an outcome with a major impact on quality of life and a high cost to society. The importance of decreased at-work productivity has also recently been recognized. Despite the importance of these problems, few interventions have been developed to reduce the impact of arthritis on employment. We have developed a novel intervention called "Making It Work", a program to help people with inflammatory arthritis (IA) deal with employment issues, prevent WD and improve at-work productivity. After favorable results in a proof-of-concept study, we converted the program to a web-based format for broader dissemination and improved accessibility. The objectives of this study are: 1) to evaluate in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) the effectiveness of the program at preventing work cessation and improving at-work productivity; 2) to perform a cost-utility analysis of the intervention. 526 participants with IA will be recruited from British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario in Canada. The intervention consists of a) 5 online group sessions; b) 5 web-based e-learning modules; c) consultations with an occupational therapist for an ergonomic work assessment and a vocational rehabilitation counselor. Questionnaires will be administered online at baseline and every 6 months to collect information about demographics, disease measures, costs, work-related risk factors for WD, quality of life, and work outcomes. Primary outcomes include at-work productivity and time to work cessation of > 6 months for any reason. Secondary outcomes include temporary work cessation, number of days missed from work per year, reduction in hours worked per week, quality adjusted life year for the cost utility analysis, and changes from baseline in employment risk factors. Analysis of Variance will evaluate the intervention's effect on at-work productivity, and multivariable Cox regression models will estimate the risk of work cessation associated with the intervention after controlling for risk factors for WD and other important predictors imbalanced at baseline. This program fills an important gap in arthritis health services and addresses an important and costly problem. Knowledge gained from the RCT will be useful to health care professionals, policy planners and arthritis stakeholders. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01852851; registered April 13, 2012; first participant randomized on July 6, 2013.

Effects of an education and home-based pedometer walking program on ischemic heart disease risk factors in people infected with HIV: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Roos, Ronel; Myezwa, Hellen; van Aswegen, Helena; Musenge, Eustasius

2014-11-01

People infected with the human immunodeficiency virus are at an increased risk of developing ischemic heart disease (IHD); however, the effects of an education and home-based pedometer walking program on risk factors of IHD are not known. We conducted a 12-month randomized study of an education and home-based pedometer walking program in 84 human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals with risk factors of IHD. Pedometer step count of the control and intervention groups improved significantly (P = 0.03 for both groups) at 6 months but was not significant at 12 months (P = 0.33 and 0.21, respectively). Significant between-group effects were observed in 6-minute walk test distance (P = 0.01), waist to hip ratio (P = 0.00), glucose (P = 0.00), and high-density lipoprotein (P = 0.01) over the 12-month period. The program did not result in change in high-sensitivity C-reactive protein as it was associated with perceived stress (r = 0.23; P = 0.03), weight (r = 0.28; P = 0.01), body mass index (r = 0.35; P < 0.00), waist (r = 0.28; P = 0.01) and hip circumference (r = 0.28; P = 0.01). Multivariate generalized estimation equation analysis demonstrated an inverse association between interaction and perceived stress (logB = -0.01; 95% confidence interval: -0.02 to -0.01; P <0.00) and body mass index (logB = -0.02; 95% confidence interval: -0.03 to -0.002; P = 0.02) at group level. An education and home-based pedometer walking program improves physical activity levels, and beneficial changes in other IHD risk factors were noted.

Longitudinal Impact of a Park-Based Afterschool Healthy Weight Program on Modifiable Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Youth.

PubMed

Messiah, Sarah E; D'Agostino, Emily M; Hansen, Eric; Mathew, M Sunil; Okeke, Deidre; Nardi, Maria; Kardys, Jack; Arheart, Kristopher L

2018-02-01

Community-based programs hold significant potential to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in youth. We describe here the longitudinal change in several modifiable CVD risk factors after participation in up to 3 years of Fit2Play™, a park-based afterschool program. Children ages 6-15 years old (N = 2261, mean age 9.0 years, 50% Hispanic, 47% non-Hispanic black, 54% male) who participated in Fit2Play™ for either 1-3 school years between 2010 and 2016 had height, weight, 4-site skinfold thicknesses, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, the progressive aerobic cardiovascular endurance run test, and health/wellness knowledge and behavior scores collected at the beginning and end of the school year(s). Effects of length of Fit2Play™ participation on CVD outcomes were assessed via 2-level repeated measures analysis adjusted for child sociodemographics, park, area poverty, and year. Adjusted models showed overweight/obese children who participated in up to 3 years of Fit2Play™ had a mean reduction of 8 mm in skinfold thicknesses; almost 0.5 SD's in BMI z-score; 5 DBP %ile points; 17% reduction in probability of developing hypertension; and a mean increase of 6.4 PACER laps and 17% increase in health/wellness assessment compared to baseline. A dose-response trend was found for years of Fit2Play™ participation and improved CVD risk profile in participating youth. In conclusion, park-based afterschool programs that promote preventive CVD risk strategies can be an equitable, low-cost, high value tool for addressing our national epidemics of obesity, heart disease and diabetes and a rapidly changing healthcare system in need of evidence-based prevention programs.

Review of asset hierarchy criticality assessment and risk analysis practices.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

The MTA NYC Transit (NYCT) has begun an enterprise-wide Asset Management Improvement Program (AMIP). In : 2012, NYCT developed an executive-level concept of operations that defined a new asset management : framework following a systems engineering ap...

General RMP Guidance - Chapter 4: Offsite Consequence Analysis

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This chapter provides basic compliance information, not modeling methodologies, for people who plan to do their own air dispersion modeling. OCA is a required part of the risk management program, and involves worst-case and alternative release scenarios.

Language, Literacy, and the Institutional Dynamics of Racism: Late-1960s Writing Instruction for "High-Risk" African American Undergraduate Students at One Predominantly White University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamos, Steve

2008-01-01

This essay analyzes the ways in which subtly but powerfully racist ideologies of language and literacy shaped the institutional development of one writing program for "high-risk" African American college students during the late 1960s and early 1970s. It further theorizes the value of such institutional analysis for counteracting racism…

Fiscal Year 2011 Program Plan

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-15

IPSA ) Division will document the most likely scenario for NextGen 2025 given their analysis to-date. This will include OIs, risks, research, and...Office (CAO), and the Net-Centric Operations Division (NCOD) will review the assumptions and concur with this set as appropriate. IPSA will also...capabilities that can be achieved with additional emphasis on research, risk, and policy issues. SII, CAO, and NCOD will confer with IPSA on the

Slippery Road Conditions and Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes in the Northeastern United States, 1998–2002

PubMed Central

Marmor, Michael; Marmor, Nicholas E.

2006-01-01

Objectives. We investigated risk factors for fatal motor vehicle crashes on slippery roads in the Northeastern United States, 1998–2002. Methods. We analyzed data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Results. Rates of crashes on slippery roads, and ratios of crashes on slippery roads to crashes on dry roads, were greatest among the youngest drivers. Among those aged 16 to 19 years, logistic regression analysis showed significant, independent risks associated with excessive speed for conditions (odds ratio [OR]=1.38), time of day (OR=1.80 for 5:00 to 9:00 am vs 10:00 am to 2:00 pm), time of year (OR=6.17 for January vs July), type of road (OR=1.27 for rural vs urban roads ), and age (OR=1.19 for those aged 16 to 17 years vs those aged 18 to 19 years). Licensure from states with graduated licensing programs was protective against crashes attributed to swerving on slippery roads (adjusted OR = 0.63). Risk factors among drivers older than 19 years were similar but peaked at different times of day and included increased risks for women compared with men. Conclusions. Driver training programs need to better address hazards presented by slippery roads. PMID:16507735

School Health Promotion Policies and Adolescent Risk Behaviors in Israel: A Multilevel Analysis.

PubMed

Tesler, Riki; Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Baron-Epel, Orna

2016-06-01

Health promotion policies targeting risk-taking behaviors are being implemented across schools in Israel. This study identified the most effective components of these policies influencing cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption among adolescents. Logistic hierarchical linear model (HLM) analysis of data for 5279 students in 95 Jewish public schools from the Health Behavior in School-Aged Children (HBSC) 2010-2011 survey in Israel enabled simultaneous estimation of the relationship between student- and school-level variables (health promotion policy) to alcohol consumption and smoking behavior. Principals of participating schools also were interviewed to ascertain their degree of adoption and implementation of a health promotion policy. Most of the variance in adolescent risk behaviors is explained by student-level variables: negative perceptions of school, lack of parental support for school issues, and more time spent with friends. Among the school-level policy measures, parental participation in health promotion intervention programs was repeatedly associated with lower rates of risk behaviors, over and above student characteristics. School health promotion policies should focus on parents' involvement in intervention programs and should seek to improve students' perceptions of school and their sense of well-being to promote resilience. Further research is needed to identify additional factors that may increase the effectiveness of school health promotion policies. © 2016, American School Health Association.

Orbiter subsystem hardware/software interaction analysis. Volume 8: Forward reaction control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Becker, D. D.

1980-01-01

The results of the orbiter hardware/software interaction analysis for the AFT reaction control system are presented. The interaction between hardware failure modes and software are examined in order to identify associated issues and risks. All orbiter subsystems and interfacing program elements which interact with the orbiter computer flight software are analyzed. The failure modes identified in the subsystem/element failure mode and effects analysis are discussed.

Failure mode and effects analysis based risk profile assessment for stereotactic radiosurgery programs at three cancer centers in Brazil.

PubMed

Teixeira, Flavia C; de Almeida, Carlos E; Saiful Huq, M

2016-01-01

The goal of this study was to evaluate the safety and quality management program for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) treatment processes at three radiotherapy centers in Brazil by using three industrial engineering tools (1) process mapping, (2) failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and (3) fault tree analysis. The recommendations of Task Group 100 of American Association of Physicists in Medicine were followed to apply the three tools described above to create a process tree for SRS procedure for each radiotherapy center and then FMEA was performed. Failure modes were identified for all process steps and values of risk priority number (RPN) were calculated from O, S, and D (RPN = O × S × D) values assigned by a professional team responsible for patient care. The subprocess treatment planning was presented with the highest number of failure modes for all centers. The total number of failure modes were 135, 104, and 131 for centers I, II, and III, respectively. The highest RPN value for each center is as follows: center I (204), center II (372), and center III (370). Failure modes with RPN ≥ 100: center I (22), center II (115), and center III (110). Failure modes characterized by S ≥ 7, represented 68% of the failure modes for center III, 62% for center II, and 45% for center I. Failure modes with RPNs values ≥100 and S ≥ 7, D ≥ 5, and O ≥ 5 were considered as high priority in this study. The results of the present study show that the safety risk profiles for the same stereotactic radiotherapy process are different at three radiotherapy centers in Brazil. Although this is the same treatment process, this present study showed that the risk priority is different and it will lead to implementation of different safety interventions among the centers. Therefore, the current practice of applying universal device-centric QA is not adequate to address all possible failures in clinical processes at different radiotherapy centers. Integrated approaches to device-centric and process specific quality management program specific to each radiotherapy center are the key to a safe quality management program.

The NLstart2run study: Incidence and risk factors of running-related injuries in novice runners.

PubMed

Kluitenberg, B; van Middelkoop, M; Smits, D W; Verhagen, E; Hartgens, F; Diercks, R; van der Worp, H

2015-10-01

Running is a popular form of physical activity, despite of the high incidence of running-related injuries (RRIs). Because of methodological issues, the etiology of RRIs remains unclear. Therefore, the purposes of the study were to assess the incidence of RRIs and to identify risk factors for RRIs in a large group of novice runners. In total, 1696 runners of a 6-week supervised "Start to Run" program were included in the NLstart2run study. All participants were aged between 18 and 65, completed a baseline questionnaire that covered potential risk factors, and completed at least one running diary. RRIs were registered during the program with a weekly running log. An RRI was defined as a musculo-skeletal complaint of the lower extremity or back attributed to running and hampering running ability for three consecutive training sessions. During the running program, 10.9% of the runners sustained an RRI. The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that a higher age, higher BMI, previous musculo-skeletal complaints not attributed to sports and no previous running experience were related to RRI. These findings indicate that many novice runners participating in a short-term running program suffer from RRIs. Therefore, the identified risk factors should be considered for screening and prevention purposes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Funding a smoking cessation program for Crohn's disease: an economic evaluation.

PubMed

Coward, Stephanie; Heitman, Steven J; Clement, Fiona; Negron, Maria; Panaccione, Remo; Ghosh, Subrata; Barkema, Herman W; Seow, Cynthia; Leung, Yvette P Y; Kaplan, Gilaad G

2015-03-01

Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) who smoke are at a higher risk of flaring and requiring surgery. Cost-effectiveness studies of funding smoking cessation programs are lacking. Thus, we performed a cost-utility analysis of funding smoking cessation programs for CD. A cost-utility analysis was performed comparing five smoking cessation strategies: No Program, Counseling, Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT), NRT+Counseling, and Varenicline. The time horizon for the Markov model was 5 years. The health states included medical remission (azathioprine or antitumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF), dose escalation of an anti-TNF, second anti-TNF, surgery, and death. Probabilities were taken from peer-reviewed literature, and costs (CAN$) for surgery, medications, and smoking cessation programs were estimated locally. The primary outcome was the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained associated with each smoking cessation strategy. Threshold, three-way sensitivity, probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA), and budget impact analysis (BIA) were carried out. All strategies dominated No Program. Strategies from most to least cost effective were as follows: Varenicline (cost: $55,614, QALY: 3.70), NRT+Counseling (cost: $58,878, QALY: 3.69), NRT (cost: $59,540, QALY: 3.69), Counseling (cost: $61,029, QALY: 3.68), and No Program (cost: $63,601, QALY: 3.67). Three-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that No Program was only more cost effective when every strategy's cost exceeded approximately 10 times their estimated costs. The PSA showed that No Program was the most cost-effective <1% of the time. The BIA showed that any strategy saved the health-care system money over No Program. Health-care systems should consider funding smoking cessation programs for CD, as they improve health outcomes and reduce costs.

Overview and Status of the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (BCPR)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charles, John

2004-01-01

Viewgraphs on the status and overview of the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (BCPR) are presented. The topics include: 1) BCPR Objectives; 2) BCPR and OBPR Program Management; 3) BCPR Disciplines & Cross-Cutting Areas; 4) Characteristics of BCPR Reference Missions; 5) Bioastronautics Timetable (notional); 6) BCPR Processes Risk Identification, Assessment, and Management; 7) Types of BCPR Risks; 8) Enabling Questions Categories; 9) Risk Mitigation Status; 10) Defining Levels of Accepted Risk; 11) BCPR Integration; 12) BCPR Implementation, Integration, and Validation; 13) BCPR Refinement Schedule; 14) Academy Review; 15) Rating Bioastronautics Risks; 16) Risk Rating Exercises; 17) Human Health Risk Assessment Criteria (examples); 18) A Recent Risk Rating Exercise; 19) Consensus Workshop Background; 20) Consensus Workshop Rating Analysis; 21) Consensus Workshop Selected Preliminary Recommendations; and 22) Access to BCPR Content.

45 CFR 800.204 - Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment... Adjustment § 800.204 Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. (a) Transitional reinsurance program... transitional reinsurance program for the individual market. (b) Temporary risk corridors program. An MSPP...

45 CFR 800.204 - Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment... Adjustment § 800.204 Reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk adjustment. (a) Transitional reinsurance program... transitional reinsurance program for the individual market. (b) Temporary risk corridors program. An MSPP...

Qualitative Comparative Analysis: A Hybrid Method for Identifying Factors Associated with Program Effectiveness.

PubMed

Cragun, Deborah; Pal, Tuya; Vadaparampil, Susan T; Baldwin, Julie; Hampel, Heather; DeBate, Rita D

2016-07-01

Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) was developed over 25 years ago to bridge the qualitative and quantitative research gap. Upon searching PubMed and the Journal of Mixed Methods Research , this review identified 30 original research studies that utilized QCA. Perceptions that QCA is complex and provides few relative advantages over other methods may be limiting QCA adoption. Thus, to overcome these perceptions, this article demonstrates how to perform QCA using data from fifteen institutions that implemented universal tumor screening (UTS) programs to identify patients at high risk for hereditary colorectal cancer. In this example, QCA revealed a combination of conditions unique to effective UTS programs. Results informed additional research and provided a model for improving patient follow-through after a positive screen.

12 CFR 1710.19 - Compliance and risk management programs; compliance with other laws.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... management program. (1) An Enterprise shall establish and maintain a risk management program that is reasonably designed to manage the risks of the operations of the Enterprise. (2) The risk management program... executive officer of the Enterprise. The risk management officer shall report regularly to the board of...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stayner, L.T.; Meinhardt, T.; Hardin, B.

Under the Occupational Safety and Health, and Mine Safety and Health Acts, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) is charged with development of recommended occupational safety and health standards, and with conducting research to support the development of these standards. Thus, NIOSH has been actively involved in the analysis of risk associated with occupational exposures, and in the development of research information that is critical for the risk assessment process. NIOSH research programs and other information resources relevant to the risk assessment process are described in this paper. Future needs for information resources are also discussed.

12 CFR 1710.19 - Compliance and risk management programs; compliance with other laws.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Compliance and risk management programs... Practices and Procedures § 1710.19 Compliance and risk management programs; compliance with other laws. (a... management program. (1) An Enterprise shall establish and maintain a risk management program that is...

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Effectiveness of the P.A.R.T.Y. (Prevent Alcohol and Risk-related Trauma in Youth) program in preventing traumatic injuries: a 10-year analysis.

PubMed

Banfield, Joanne M; Gomez, Manuel; Kiss, Alex; Redelmeier, Donald A; Brenneman, Frederick

2011-03-01

The P.A.R.T.Y. (Prevent Alcohol and Risk-Related Trauma in Youth) program is a 1-day injury awareness and prevention program for youth aged 15 years and older. The goal is to teach adolescents to recognize their injury risks and make informed decisions to reduce them. This study assessed the effectiveness of the P.A.R.T.Y. Program in preventing traumatic injuries during a period of 10 years (1992-2004). P.A.R.T.Y. participants (STUDY) were matched with subjects having the same age, gender, residential area, and initial year in database, who did not attend the P.A.R.T.Y. Program (CONTROL). Data from hospital discharge database, and provincial health claims, were searched to determine the incidence of traumatic injuries in both groups. Statistical comparisons were made for the two groups, gender, calendar year, and before and after the graduating driver licensing system was implemented, using the χ and conditional logistic regression analysis with a p<0.05 considered significant. Of 3,905 P.A.R.T.Y. participants, 1,281 were successfully randomly matched on the above 4 variables with 1,281 controls. The most frequent injury was injury by other or homicide 373 of 2,562 (14.8%). There were fewer traumatic injuries in the STUDY group than in the CONTROL group (43.3% vs. 47.4%; p=0.02; OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.03-1.45). This difference was stronger in females (44.4% vs. 49.0%; p=0.04) and before the graduating driver licensing system implementation (60.1% vs. 67.2%; p=0.04). The P.A.R.T.Y. Program effectively reduced the incidence of traumatic injuries among its participants. This effectiveness was stronger among females and before the driver licensing system was implemented. Copyright © 2011 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

Marriage, widowhood, divorce and HIV risks among women in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Tenkorang, Eric Y

2014-03-01

Studies on associations between marriage and HIV infection among women in sub-Saharan Africa are generally inconclusive. Not enough is known about HIV risks among divorced and widowed women. This study examined the relationship between marital status and HIV infection among women in seven sub-Saharan African countries. Retrospective data from the Demographic and Health Surveys were combined with HIV biomarker data from the AIDS Indicator Survey (AIS) for analysis. Random-effects complementary log-log models were applied to examine the relationship between marital status and HIV risks controlling for theoretically relevant covariates. Compared to never-married women, widowed women were significantly more likely to be HIV positive. Similarly, married women were more likely to be infected with HIV, compared to never-married women in Lesotho and Zimbabwe. In Tanzania and Zimbabwe, divorced women had higher risks of HIV infection, compared to never-married women. Findings suggest that specific HIV programs be directed at vulnerable women, in particular those widowed. Similar programs are needed for both poorer and wealthier women.

Health risks due to radon in drinking water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hopke, P.K.; Borak, T.B.; Doull, J.; Cleaver, J.E.; Eckerman, K.F.; Gundersen, L.C.S.; Harley, N.H.; Hess, C.T.; Kinner, N.E.; Kopecky, K.J.; Mckone, T.E.; Sextro, R.G.; Simon, S.L.

2000-01-01

Following more than a decade of scientific debate about the setting of a standard for 222Rn in drinking water, Congress established a timetable for the promulgation of a standard in the 1996 Amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act. As a result of those Amendments, the EPA contracted with the National Academy of Sciences to undertake a risk assessment for exposure to radon in drinking water. In addition, the resulting committee was asked to address several other scientific issues including the national average ambient 222Rn concentration and the increment of 222Rn to the indoor- air concentration arising from the use of drinking water in a home. A new dosimetric analysis of the cancer risk to the stomach from ingestion was performed. The recently reported risk estimates developed by the BEIR VI Committee for inhalation of radon decay products were adopted. Because the 1996 Amendments permit states to develop programs in which mitigation of air- producing health-risk reductions equivalent to that which would be achieved by treating the drinking water, the scientific issues involved in such 'multimedia mitigation programs' were explored.

Risk Factors for Suicidal Ideation Among Telephone Crisis Hotline Callers in Japan.

PubMed

Doki, Shotaro; Kaneko, Hidetoshi; Oi, Yuichi; Usami, Kazuya; Sasahara, Shinichiro; Matsuzaki, Ichiyo

2016-11-01

Telephone hotlines are a widely used type of suicide prevention program. The aim of this study was to clarify the risk factors for suicidal ideation by investigating its association with a number of characteristics among telephone hotline callers. Data were collected over a 10-year period from a total of 246,595 calls to Inochi No Denwa, a telephone crisis hotline in Ibaraki, Japan, and subsequently analyzed. Odds ratios for suicidal compared with nonsuicidal ideation were also calculated. About 6% of the calls to the hotline were suicide related, and about 2% of the callers had attempted suicide in the past. Odds ratios for suicidal ideation increased during winter, but no daily tendencies were evident. Those whose problems were related to their way of life were at the highest risk of suicidal ideation, followed by those with health-related concerns. We were able to identify risk factors for suicidal ideation based on an analysis of enormous amounts of data from a telephone crisis hotline in Japan. Knowledge of these risk factors is expected to lead to improvements in suicide prevention programs.

The ACTIVATE study: results from a group-randomized controlled trial comparing a traditional worksite health promotion program with an activated consumer program.

PubMed

Terry, Paul E; Fowles, Jinnet Briggs; Xi, Min; Harvey, Lisa

2011-01-01

PURPOSE. This study compares a traditional worksite-based health promotion program with an activated consumer program and a control program DESIGN. Group randomized controlled trial with 18-month intervention. SETTING. Two large Midwestern companies. SUBJECTS. Three hundred and twenty employees (51% response). INTERVENTION. The traditional health promotion intervention offered population-level campaigns on physical activity, nutrition, and stress management. The activated consumer intervention included population-level campaigns for evaluating health information, choosing a health benefits plan, and understanding the risks of not taking medications as prescribed. The personal development intervention (control group) offered information on hobbies. The interventions also offered individual-level coaching for high risk individuals in both active intervention groups. MEASURES. Health risk status, general health status, consumer activation, productivity, and the ability to evaluate health information. ANALYSIS. Multivariate analyses controlled for baseline differences among the study groups. RESULTS. At the population level, compared with baseline performance, the traditional health promotion intervention improved health risk status, consumer activation, and the ability to recognize reliable health websites. Compared with baseline performance, the activated consumer intervention improved consumer activation, productivity, and the ability to recognize reliable health websites. At the population level, however, only the activated consumer intervention improved any outcome more than the control group did; that outcome was consumer activation. At the individual level for high risk individuals, both traditional health coaching and activated consumer coaching positively affected health risk status and consumer activation. In addition, both coaching interventions improved participant ability to recognize a reliable health website. Consumer activation coaching also significantly improved self-reported productivity. CONCLUSION. An effective intervention can change employee health risk status and activation both at the population level and at the individual high risk level. However, program engagement at the population level was low, indicating that additional promotional strategies, such as greater use of incentives, need to be examined. Less intensive coaching can be as effective as more intensive, albeit both interventions produced modest behavior change and retention in the consumer activation arm was most difficult. Further research is needed concerning recruitment and retention methods that will enable populations to realize the full potential of activated consumerism.

PROTEOMIC ANALYSIS OF ALLERGENS FROM METARHIZIUM ANISOPLIAE

EPA Science Inventory

Introduction

The goal of this project is the identification and characterization of allergens from the fungus Metarhizium anisopliae, using mass spectrometry (MS). The US EPA, under the "Children at Risk" program, is currently addressing the problem of indoor fungal bioaer...

PROTEOMIC ANALYSIS OF ALLERGENS FROM METARHIZIUM ANISOPLIEA

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of this project is the identification and characterization of allergens from the fungus M. Anisopliae, using mass spectrometry (MS). The US EPA, under the "Children at Risk" program, is currently addressing the problem of indoor fungal bioaerosol contamination. One of ...

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

PubMed

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would be useful to develop case studies and/or standards of practice for interpreting lines of evidence. In addition, tools for cumulative risk assessment should be developed because contaminants are often released into stressed environments.

Coaching patients On Achieving Cardiovascular Health (COACH): a multicenter randomized trial in patients with coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Vale, Margarite J; Jelinek, Michael V; Best, James D; Dart, Anthony M; Grigg, Leeanne E; Hare, David L; Ho, Betty P; Newman, Robert W; McNeil, John J

Disease management programs in which drugs are prescribed by dietitians or nurses have been shown to improve the coronary risk factor profile in patients with coronary heart disease. However, those disease management programs in which drugs are not prescribed by allied health professionals have not improved coronary risk factor status. The objective of the Coaching patients On Achieving Cardiovascular Health (COACH) study was to determine whether dietitians or nurses who did not prescribe medications could coach patients with coronary heart disease to work with their physicians to achieve the target levels for their total cholesterol (TC) and other risk factors. Multicenter randomized controlled trial in which 792 patients from 6 university teaching hospitals underwent a stratified randomization by cardiac diagnosis within each hospital: 398 were assigned to usual care plus The COACH Program and 394 to usual care alone. Patients in The COACH Program group received regular personal coaching via telephone and mailings to achieve the target levels for their particular coronary risk factors. There was one coach per hospital. The primary outcome was the change in TC (DeltaTC) from baseline (in hospital) to 6 months after randomization. Secondary outcomes included measurement of a wide range of physical, nutritional, and psychological factors. The analysis was performed by intention to treat. The COACH Program achieved a significantly greater DeltaTC than usual care alone: the mean DeltaTC was 21 mg/dL (0.54 mmol/L) (95% confidence interval [CI], 16-25 mg/dL [0.42-0.65 mmol/L]) in The COACH Program vs 7 mg/dL (0.18 mmol/L) (95% CI, 3-11 mg/dL [0.07-0.29 mmol/L]) in the usual care group (P<.0001). Thus, the reduction in TC from baseline to 6 months after randomization was 14 mg/dL (0.36 mmol/L) (95% CI, 8-20 mg/dL [0.20-0.52 mmol/L]) greater in The COACH Program group than in the usual care group. Coaching produced substantial improvements in most of the other coronary risk factors and in patient quality of life. Coaching, delivered as The COACH Program, is a highly effective strategy in reducing TC and many other coronary risk factors in patients with coronary heart disease. Coaching has potential effectiveness in the whole area of chronic disease management.

Neuromorphic Computing for Very Large Test and Evaluation Data Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

analysis and utilization of newly available hardware- based artificial neural network chips. These two aspects of the program are complementary. The...neuromorphic architectures research focused on long term disruptive technologies with high risk but revolutionary potential. The hardware- based neural...today. Overall, hardware- based neural processing research allows us to study the fundamental system and architectural issues relevant for employing

Macro-Econophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoyama, Hideaki; Fujiwara, Yoshi; Ikeda, Yuichi; Iyetomi, Hiroshi; Souma, Wataru; Yoshikawa, Hiroshi

2017-07-01

Preface; Foreword, Acknowledgements, List of tables; List of figures, prologue, 1. Introduction: reconstructing macroeconomics; 2. Basic concepts in statistical physics and stochastic models; 3. Income and firm-size distributions; 4. Productivity distribution and related topics; 5. Multivariate time-series analysis; 6. Business cycles; 7. Price dynamics and inflation/deflation; 8. Complex network, community analysis, visualization; 9. Systemic risks; Appendix A: computer program for beginners; Epilogue; Bibliography; Index.

Impulsive lifestyle counseling to prevent dropout from treatment for substance use disorders in people with antisocial personality disorder: A randomized study.

PubMed

Thylstrup, Birgitte; Hesse, Morten

2016-06-01

Patients with antisocial personality disorder in outpatient treatment for substance use disorders are at high risk of drop-out. Using a randomized design, this study tested the impact of adding a brief psycho-educational program, the Impulsive Lifestyle Counseling program, to outpatient substance abuse treatment in order to prevent treatment dropout. Patients (N=175) were recruited from 13 municipal treatment centers in Denmark, and assigned to treatment as usual or to the experimental condition. In all, 172 patients could be included in the analyses. In the intent-to-treat analysis, the risk of treatment dropout was reduced among patients randomized to the experimental program (hazard ratio=0.63, p=.031), after controlling for age, gender, and substitution treatment status. The study supported the efficacy of the Impulsive Lifestyle Counseling program as a method for preventing treatment dropout for patients with comorbid antisocial personality disorder in substance abuse treatment. Trial registration #ISRCTN67266318. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis of hematopoietic stem cell transplant process: failure mode, effect, and criticality analysis and hazard analysis critical control point methods integration based on guidelines to good manufacturing practice for medicinal product ANNEX 20 (February 2008).

PubMed

Gianassi, S; Bisin, S; Bindi, B; Spitaleri, I; Bambi, F

2010-01-01

The collection and handling of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) must meet high quality requirements. An integrated Quality Risk Management can help to identify and contain potential risks related to HSC production. Risk analysis techniques allow one to "weigh" identified hazards, considering the seriousness of their effects, frequency, and detectability, seeking to prevent the most harmful hazards. The Hazard Analysis Critical Point, recognized as the most appropriate technique to identify risks associated with physical, chemical, and biological hazards for cellular products, consists of classifying finished product specifications and limits of acceptability, identifying all off-specifications, defining activities that can cause them, and finally establishing both a monitoring system for each Critical Control Point and corrective actions for deviations. The severity of possible effects on patients, as well as the occurrence and detectability of critical parameters, are measured on quantitative scales (Risk Priority Number [RPN]). Risk analysis was performed with this technique on manipulation process of HPC performed at our blood center. The data analysis showed that hazards with higher values of RPN with greater impact on the process are loss of dose and tracking; technical skills of operators and manual transcription of data were the most critical parameters. Problems related to operator skills are handled by defining targeted training programs, while other critical parameters can be mitigated with the use of continuous control systems. The blood center management software was completed by a labeling system with forms designed to be in compliance with standards in force and by starting implementation of a cryopreservation management module. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

45 CFR 153.10 - Basis and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT General... program for individual market in each State. (3) Section 1342. Establishment of risk corridors for plans... risk corridors program, and a permanent risk adjustment program. ...

45 CFR 153.10 - Basis and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT General... program for individual market in each State. (3) Section 1342. Establishment of risk corridors for plans... risk corridors program, and a permanent risk adjustment program. ...

45 CFR 153.10 - Basis and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... RELATED TO REINSURANCE, RISK CORRIDORS, AND RISK ADJUSTMENT UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT General... program for individual market in each State. (3) Section 1342. Establishment of risk corridors for plans... risk corridors program, and a permanent risk adjustment program. ...

Colon Cancer Screening Programs: Impact of an Organized Screening Strategy Assessed by the EDIFICE Surveys.

PubMed

Viguier, Jérôme; Morère, Jean-François; Brignoli-Guibaudet, Lysel; Lhomel, Christine; Couraud, Sébastien; Eisinger, François

2018-03-05

The aim of EDIFICE surveys is to improve insight into the behavior of the French population with regard to cancer prevention and participation in screening programs. Via the colorectal cancer screening program, all average-risk individuals in the 50-74-year age group are invited every 2 years to do a guaiac-based or, since April 2015, an immunochemical fecal occult blood test. The fifth edition of the nationwide observational survey was conducted by phone interviews using the quota method. A representative sample of 1299 individuals with no history of cancer (age, 50-74 years) was interviewed between 22 November and 7 December 2016. The present analysis focuses on minimum lifetime uptake of screening tests, compliance to recommended repeat-screening intervals, and reasons for non-participation. In 2016, 64% survey participants had been screened at least once and 38% had been screened in the previous 2 years, suggesting a trend towards increasing participation rates, particularly in the younger age categories and among men. The 2016 data also suggest that the newly implemented FIT-based screening program has been well perceived by the population. Up to one in four individuals cited "no risk factors" as the reason for not undergoing screening. This reveals ignorance of the fact that the colorectal cancer screening program actually targets all average-risk individuals in a given age group, without individual risk factors. We suggest the next step should be dedicated to educational approaches to explain exactly what screening involves and to persuasive messages targeting those who to date have remained unreceptive to information campaigns.

Application of ISO22000 and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fmea) for Industrial Processing of Poultry Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varzakas, Theodoros H.; Arvanitoyannis, Ioannis S.

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) model has been applied for the risk assessment of poultry slaughtering and manufacturing. In this work comparison of ISO22000 analysis with HACCP is carried out over poultry slaughtering, processing and packaging. Critical Control points and Prerequisite programs (PrPs) have been identified and implemented in the cause and effect diagram (also known as Ishikawa, tree diagram and fishbone diagram).

Does household composition explain welfare regime poverty risks for older adults and other household members?

PubMed

Tai, Tsui-o; Treas, Judith

2009-11-01

This cross-national study examines the poverty of older adults and their household members and relates the risk of poverty to macrolevel state approaches to welfare as well as to microlevel composition of households. Data on individuals in households with older adults for 22 countries come from the Luxembourg Income Survey. Robust cluster analysis relates the risk of poverty to the type of state welfare regime; the characteristics of the household head (age, gender, marital status, and education); as well as the household's numbers of earners, older adults, and children. Persons in households with older adults are significantly less likely to be poor in countries with social democratic and conservative welfare regimes than in Taiwan, an exemplar of limited social welfare programs. Controlling for country differences in household composition increases the differences in poverty risks. Living with fewer children, more older adults, and more earners lowers the risk of poverty, as does having a married and better educated household head. Countries with more generous social welfare provisions have lower risks of poverty despite having household characteristics that are comparatively unfavorable. As Taiwan demonstrates, household composition, particularly a reliance on multigenerational households, compensates for limited state welfare programs.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The technical effort and computer code enhancements performed during the sixth year of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods program are summarized. Various capabilities are described to probabilistically combine structural response and structural resistance to compute component reliability. A library of structural resistance models is implemented in the Numerical Evaluations of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) code that included fatigue, fracture, creep, multi-factor interaction, and other important effects. In addition, a user interface was developed for user-defined resistance models. An accurate and efficient reliability method was developed and was successfully implemented in the NESSUS code to compute component reliability based on user-selected response and resistance models. A risk module was developed to compute component risk with respect to cost, performance, or user-defined criteria. The new component risk assessment capabilities were validated and demonstrated using several examples. Various supporting methodologies were also developed in support of component risk assessment.

Ares I-X Malfunction Turn Range Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beaty, J. R.

2011-01-01

Ares I-X was the designation given to the flight test version of the Ares I rocket which was developed by NASA (also known as the Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) component of the Constellation Program). The Ares I-X flight test vehicle achieved a successful flight test on October 28, 2009, from Pad LC-39B at Kennedy Space Center, Florida (KSC). As part of the flight plan approval for the test vehicle, a range safety malfunction turn analysis was performed to support the risk assessment and vehicle destruct criteria development processes. Several vehicle failure scenarios were identified which could have caused the vehicle trajectory to deviate from its normal flight path. The effects of these failures were evaluated with an Ares I-X 6 degrees-of-freedom (6-DOF) digital simulation, using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories Version II (POST2) simulation tool. The Ares I-X simulation analysis provided output files containing vehicle trajectory state information. These were used by other risk assessment and vehicle debris trajectory simulation tools to determine the risk to personnel and facilities in the vicinity of the launch area at KSC, and to develop the vehicle destruct criteria used by the flight test range safety officer in the event of a flight test anomaly of the vehicle. The simulation analysis approach used for this study is described, including descriptions of the failure modes which were considered and the underlying assumptions and ground rules of the study.

75 FR 30106 - Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Litigation Management Submissions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-28

... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Litigation Management Submissions... U.S.C. 3506(c)(2)(A)). Currently, the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Office is seeking comments... or by mail (if hard copy, preferably an original and two copies) to: Terrorism Risk Insurance Program...

75 FR 30106 - Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Recordkeeping Requirements for Insurers Compensated Under the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-28

... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Recordkeeping Requirements for... Budget. The Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Office within the Department of the Treasury is soliciting... original and two copies) to: Terrorism Risk Insurance Program, Public Comment Record, Suite 2100...

Social-cognitive correlates of risky adolescent cycling behavior

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Bicycle use entails high safety and health risks especially for adolescents. Most safety education programs aimed at adolescents focus on accident statistics and risk perceptions. This paper proposes the investigation of the social-cognitive correlates of risky cycling behaviors of adolescents prior to developing safety education programs. Method Secondary school students aged 13 to 18 years (n = 1446) filled out questionnaires regarding bicycle behavior, risky intentions, accident experience, and social-cognitive determinants as suggested by the theory of planned behavior. Results Regression analysis revealed that the proximal variables (i.e., self-efficacy, attitudes towards drunk driving, personal norm regarding safekeeping of self and others, and compared risk) were able to predict 17% of the variance of risky behavior and 23% of the variance of risky intentions. The full model explained respectively 29% and 37% of the variance in risky behavior and risky intentions. Adolescents with positive attitudes towards risky behavior and low sense of responsibility report risky behavior, even when having been (close to) an accident. Conclusions Adolescents realize whether they are risk takers or not. This implies that the focus of education programs should not be on risk perceptions, but on decreasing positive attitudes towards alcohol in traffic and increasing sense of responsibility instead. Cognitions regarding near accidents should be studied, the role of safe cycling self-efficacy is unclear. PMID:20624293

Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

1992-07-01

In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as amore » three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC's PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described.« less

A Management Case Analysis of the Department of Defense Contractor Risk Assessment Guide Program

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

ORGANIZATION ......... 17 1. Past Government Organization Problems... 17 2. Current Government Organization ......... 17 3. The Contractor’s Organizatin ...Program and urged CODSIA to take a leadership role in encouraging its members to participate. The DCAA [Ref ll:p. 45] informed defense contractors in...conferences, and through the leadership of officials including the Under Secretary of the Navy for Acquisition, DOD Comptroller General, DOD Inspector General

Major Management Challenges and Program Risks. Department of Education

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-01-01

GAO United States General Accounting Office Performance and Accountability SeriesJanuary 2001 Major Management Challenges and Program Risks ...34) Title and Subtitle Major Management Challenges and Program Risks Department of Education Contract or Grant Number Program Element Number Authors...Accountability Series: Major Management Challenges and Program Risks . In that series, GAO advised the Congress that it planned to reassess the

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-05-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-01-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Return on Investment for Digital Behavioral Counseling in Patients With Prediabetes and Cardiovascular Disease.

PubMed

Su, Wenqing; Chen, Fang; Dall, Timothy M; Iacobucci, William; Perreault, Leigh

2016-01-28

We calculated the health and economic impacts of participation in a digital behavioral counseling service that is designed to promote a healthful diet and physical activity for cardiovascular disease prevention in adults with prediabetes and cardiovascular disease risk factors (Prevent, Omada Health, San Francisco, California). This program enhances the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Diabetes Prevention Recognition Program. Participants completed a 16-week core program followed by an ongoing maintenance program. Analysis was conducted for 2 populations meeting criteria for lifestyle intervention: 1) prediabetes (n = 1,663), and 2) high cardiovascular disease risk (n = 2,152). The Markov-based model simulated clinical and economic outcomes related to obesity and diabetes annually over 10 years for the 2 defined populations. Comparisons were made between participants and propensity-matched controls from the community. The return-on-investment break-even point was 3 years in both populations. Simulated return on investment for the population with prediabetes was $9 and $1,565 at years 3 and 5, respectively. Simulated return on investment for the population with cardiovascular disease risk was $96 and $1,512 at years 3 and 5, respectively. Results suggest that program participation reduces diabetes incidence by 30% to 33% and stroke by 11% to 16% over 5 years. Digital Behavioral Counseling provides significant health benefits to patients with prediabetes and cardiovascular disease and a positive return on investment.

10 CFR 300.11 - Independent verification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... verifiers, and has been empowered to make decisions relevant to the provision of a verification statement... methods; and (v) Risk assessment and methodologies and materiality analysis procedures outlined by other... Accreditation Board program for Environmental Management System auditors (ANSI-RAB-EMS); Board of Environmental...

10 CFR 300.11 - Independent verification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... verifiers, and has been empowered to make decisions relevant to the provision of a verification statement... methods; and (v) Risk assessment and methodologies and materiality analysis procedures outlined by other... Accreditation Board program for Environmental Management System auditors (ANSI-RAB-EMS); Board of Environmental...

Worksite Cancer Prevention Activities in the National Comprehensive Cancer Control Program

PubMed Central

Nahmias, Zachary; Townsend, Julie S.; Neri, Antonio; Stewart, Sherri L.

2016-01-01

Background Workplaces are one setting for cancer control planners to reach adults at risk for cancer and other chronic diseases. However, the extent to which Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-funded National Comprehensive Cancer Control Programs (NCCCP) implement interventions in the workplace setting is not well characterized. Methods We conducted a qualitative content analysis of program action plans submitted by NCCCP grantees from 2013–2015 to identify and describe cancer prevention objectives and interventions in the workplace setting. Results Nearly half of NCCCP action reports contained at least one cancer prevention objective or intervention in the workplace setting. Common interventions included education about secondhand smoke exposure in the workplace, and the importance of obtaining colorectal cancer screening. Conclusion Workplace interventions were relatively common among NCCCP action plans, and serve as one way to address low percentages of CRC screening, and reduce risk for obesity- and tobacco-related cancers. PMID:26874944

Impact of patient and program factors on default during treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

PubMed

Gler, M T; Podewils, L J; Munez, N; Galipot, M; Quelapio, M I D; Tupasi, T E

2012-07-01

In the Philippines, programmatic treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) was initiated by the Tropical Disease Foundation in 1999 and transitioned to the National TB Program in 2006. To determine patient and socio-demographic characteristics associated with default, and the impact of patient support measures on default. Retrospective cohort analysis of 583 MDR-TB patients treated from 1999 to 2006. A total of 88 (15%) patients defaulted from treatment. The median follow-up time for patients who defaulted was 289 days (range 1-846). In multivariate analysis adjusted for age, sex and previous TB treatment, receiving a greater number of treatment drugs (≥ 5 vs. 2-3 drugs, HR 7.2, 95%CI 3.3-16.0, P < 0.001) was significantly associated with an increased risk of default, while decentralization reduced the risk of default (HR 0.3, 95%CI 0.2-0.7, P < 0.001). Improving access to treatment for MDR-TB through decentralization of care to centers near the patient's residence reduced the risk of default. Further research is needed to evaluate the feasibility, impact and cost-effectiveness of decentralized care models for MDR-TB treatment.

Use of a pretest strategy for physical therapist assistant programs to predict success rate on the national physical therapy exam.

PubMed

Sloas, Stacey B; Keith, Becky; Whitehead, Malcolm T

2013-01-01

This study investigated a pretest strategy that identified physical therapist assistant (PTA) students who were at risk of failure on the National Physical Therapy Examination (NPTE). Program assessment data from five cohorts of PTA students (2005-2009) were used to develop a stepwise multiple regression formula that predicted first-time NPTE licensure scores. Data used included the Nelson-Denny Reading Test, grades from eight core courses, grade point average upon admission to the program, and scores from three mock NPTE exams given during the program. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between each of the 15 variables and NPTE scores. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed using data collected at the ends of the first, second, and third (final) semesters of the program. Data from the class of 2010 were then used to validate the formula. The end-of-program formula accounted for the greatest variance (57%) in predicted scores. Those students scoring below a predicted scaled score of 620 were identified to be at risk of failure of the licensure exam. These students were counseled, and a remedial plan was developed based on regression predictions prior to them sitting for the licensure exam.

Candidate change agent identification among men at risk for HIV infection

PubMed Central

Schneider, John A.; McFadden, Rachel B.; Laumann, Edward O.; Kumar, SG Prem; Gandham, Sabitha R.; Oruganti, Ganesh

2012-01-01

Despite limited HIV prevention potency, peer-based programs have become one of the most often used HIV prevention approaches internationally. These programs demonstrate a need for greater specificity in peer change agent (PCA) recruitment and social network evaluation. In the present three-phase study based in India (2009–2010), we first explored the nature of friendship among truck-drivers, a group of men at high risk for HIV infection, in order to develop a thorough understanding of the social forces that contribute to and maintain their personal networks. This was accomplished in the first two study phases, through a combination of focus group discussions (n=5 groups), in-depth qualitative interviews (n=20), and personal network analyses (n=25) of truck-drivers to define friendship and deepen our understanding of friendship across geographic spaces. Measures collected in phases I and II included friend typologies, discussion topics, social network influences, advice-giving, and risk reduction. Outcomes were assessed through an iterative process of qualitative textual analysis and social network analysis. The networks of truck-drivers were found to comprise three typologies: close friends, parking lot friends, and other friends. From these data, we developed an algorithmic approach to the identification of a candidate PCA within a high-risk man’s personal network. In stage III we piloted field-use of this approach to identify and recruit PCAs, and further evaluated their potential for intervention through preliminary analysis of the PCA’s own personal networks. An instrument was developed to translate what social network theory and analysis has taught us about egocentric network dynamics into a real-world methodology for identifying intervention-appropriate peers within an individual’s personal network. Our approach can be tailored to the specifications of any high-risk population, and may serve to enhance current peer-based HIV interventions. PMID:22762951

Catalysis and biocatalysis program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The annual report presents the fiscal year (FY) 1990 research activities and accomplishments for the Catalysis and Biocatalysis Program of the Advanced Industrial Concepts Division (AICD), Office of Industrial Technologies of the Department of Energy (DOE). The mission of the AICD is to create a balanced program of high risk, long term, directed interdisciplinary research and development that will improve energy efficiency and enhance fuel flexibility in the industrial sector. The Catalysis and Biocatalysis Program's technical activities were organized into five work elements: the Molecular Modeling and Catalysis by Design element; the Applied Microbiology and Genetics element; the Bioprocess Engineering element; the Separations and Novel Chemical Processes element; and the Process Design and Analysis element.

Psychological Violence and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Predominantly African American Women.

PubMed

Ali, Bina; Mittal, Mona; Schroder, Allison; Ishman, Najah; Quinton, Sylvia; Boekeloo, Bradley

2017-07-01

Physical and sexual violence are commonly researched as risk factors for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, psychological violence and its relationship with HIV risk behaviors have received limited attention among African American/Black (Black) women. This study examined (a) the frequency of recent (past 3 months) psychological violence, physical violence, and sexual violence and (b) the association of HIV risk behaviors, including unprotected sex, sex under the influence of alcohol/drugs, and sex exchange for money/drugs/shelter, with psychological violence. Participants included 191 women (89.2% Black), who were recruited through information sessions held at community centers, Parent Teacher Association meetings, substance use and HIV counseling centers, radio public service announcements, and word of mouth. Interested women participated in a multisession HIV and substance use prevention program and completed a self-reported assessment at program baseline. The current study utilized baseline data collected for a longitudinal study. Results from descriptive analysis indicated that the rate of psychological violence was higher than physical violence or sexual violence, and it was strongly associated with physical and sexual violence. Furthermore, hierarchical logistic regression analysis showed that unprotected sex was significantly associated with recent psychological violence after controlling for covariates. Findings suggest that recent psychological violence is more common than physical or sexual violence and it relates to sexual risk behaviors among Black women. Recent psychological violence may indicate psychosocial and sexual vulnerability for HIV and warrants particular attention among Black women.

Intussusception and Monovalent Rotavirus Vaccination in Singapore: Self-Controlled Case Series and Risk-Benefit Study.

PubMed

Yung, Chee-Fu; Chan, Siew Pang; Soh, Sally; Tan, Adriana; Thoon, Koh Cheng

2015-07-01

To investigate the association between monovalent human rotavirus vaccine (RV1) and intussusception among Asian infants and the impact of older age of vaccination. To perform risk-benefit analysis of RV1 vaccination programs in Singapore. We performed a self-controlled case series by extracting intussusception cases in infants aged <12 months from hospital databases (2005-2012) and with vaccination histories from a national immunization registry. Relative incidences were calculated by comparing incidence during defined risk periods after vaccination with times outside these periods. In the risk benefit analysis, we estimated excess intussusception hospitalization in relation to the number of infants vaccinated for hypothetical vaccination coverage scenarios. There were 86 infants hospitalized with intussusception; 20 cases had received at least 1 dose of RV1. Nearly all (19) had received their first dose at age >12 weeks old. The age-adjusted relative incidence of intussusception in the 1- to 7-day period post dose one was 8.36 (95% CI 2.42-28.96). Of all childhood hospitalizations because of rotavirus, 71% (570 cases) could be prevented with 90% vaccination coverage. There would be approximately 1 excess intussusception case per 65,000 infants vaccinated. Risk of intussusception increases about 8-fold during 1-7 days after receipt of first dose RV1 in infants of Chinese, Malay, and Indian ethnicity in Singapore, Asia. High vaccine coverage program in Singapore would be beneficial with only a low risk of excess intussusception. The relative risk of intussusception post-RV1 vaccination is not higher in Asia despite differences in background intussusception incidence compared with US and Australia, or older age of vaccination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Breast cancer risk after diagnosis by screening mammography of nonproliferative or proliferative benign breast disease: a study from a population-based screening program.

PubMed

Castells, Xavier; Domingo, Laia; Corominas, Josep María; Torá-Rocamora, Isabel; Quintana, María Jesús; Baré, Marisa; Vidal, Carmen; Natal, Carmen; Sánchez, Mar; Saladié, Francina; Ferrer, Joana; Vernet, Mar; Servitja, Sonia; Rodríguez-Arana, Ana; Roman, Marta; Espinàs, Josep Alfons; Sala, María

2015-01-01

Benign breast disease increases the risk of breast cancer. This association has scarcely been evaluated in the context of breast cancer screening programs although it is a prevalent finding in mammography screening. We assessed the association of distinct categories of benign breast disease and subsequent risk of breast cancer, as well as the influence of a family history of breast cancer. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 545,171 women aged 50-69 years biennially screened for breast cancer in Spain. The median of follow-up was 6.1 years. The age-adjusted rate ratio (RR) of breast cancer for women with benign breast disease, histologically classified into nonproliferative and proliferative disease with and without atypia, compared with women without benign breast disease was estimated by Poisson regression analysis. A stratified analysis by family history of breast cancer was performed in a subsample. All tests were two-sided. The age-adjusted RR of breast cancer after diagnosis of benign breast disease was 2.51 (95 % CI: 2.14-2.93) compared with women without benign breast disease. The risk was higher in women with proliferative disease with atypia (RR = 4.56, 95 % CI: 2.06-10.07) followed by those with proliferative disease without atypia (RR = 3.58; 95 % CI = 2.61-4.91). Women with nonproliferative disease and without a family history of breast cancer remained also at increased risk of cancer (OR = 2.23, 95 % CI: 1.86-2.68). An increased risk of breast cancer was observed among screening participants with proliferative or nonproliferative benign breast disease, regardless of a family history of breast cancer. This information may be useful to explore risk-based screening strategies.

Perceived benefits and challenges of coordinated approaches to chronic disease prevention in state health departments.

PubMed

Allen, Peg; Sequeira, Sonia; Best, Leslie; Jones, Ellen; Baker, Elizabeth A; Brownson, Ross C

2014-05-08

Chronic disease prevention efforts have historically been funded categorically according to disease or risk factor. Federal agencies are now progressively starting to fund combined programs to address common risk. The purpose of this study was to inform transitions to coordinated chronic disease prevention by learning views on perceived benefits and challenges of a coordinated approach to funding. A national survey on evidence-based public health was conducted from March through May 2013 among state health department employees working in chronic disease prevention (N = 865). Participants were asked to rank the top 3 benefits and top 3 challenges in coordinating chronic disease approaches from provided lists and could provide additional responses. Descriptive analyses, χ(2) tests, and analysis of variance were conducted. The most common perceived benefits of coordinated approaches to chronic disease prevention were improved health outcomes, common risk factors better addressed, and reduced duplication of program efforts. The most common perceived challenges were funding restrictions, such as disease-specific performance measures; competing priorities; lack of communication across programs; funding might be reduced; agency not structured for program coordination; and loss of disease-specific partner support. Rankings of benefits and challenges were similar across states and participant roles; the perceived challenges "lack of communication across programs" (P = .02) and "funding might be reduced" differed by program area (P < .001). Findings can be used by funding agencies and state health departments for planning, training, and technical assistance. The information on perceived challenges demonstrates the need to improve communication across programs, enhance organizational support for coordinated approaches, and create benefits for organizational partners.

Planning influenza vaccination programs: a cost benefit model

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Although annual influenza vaccination could decrease the significant economic and humanistic burden of influenza in the United States, immunization rates are below recommended levels, and concerns remain whether immunization programs can be cost beneficial. The research objective was to compare cost benefit of various immunization strategies from employer, employee, and societal perspectives. Methods An actuarial model was developed based on the published literature to estimate the costs and benefits of influenza immunization programs. Useful features of the model included customization by population age and risk-level, potential pandemic risk, and projection year. Various immunization strategies were modelled for an average U.S. population of 15,000 persons vaccinated in pharmacies or doctor’s office during the 2011/12 season. The primary outcome measure reported net cost savings per vaccinated (PV) from the perspective of various stakeholders. Results Given a typical U.S. population, an influenza immunization program will be cost beneficial for employers when more than 37% of individuals receive vaccine in non-traditional settings such as pharmacies. The baseline scenario, where 50% of persons would be vaccinated in non-traditional settings, estimated net savings of $6 PV. Programs that limited to pharmacy setting ($31 PV) or targeted persons with high-risk comorbidities ($83 PV) or seniors ($107 PV) were found to increase cost benefit. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the scenario-based findings. Conclusions Both universal and targeted vaccination programs can be cost beneficial. Proper planning with cost models can help employers and policy makers develop strategies to improve the impact of immunization programs. PMID:22835081

Program Risk Planning with Risk as a Resource

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Paul S.

1998-01-01

The current focus of NASA on cost effective ways of achieving mission objectives has created a demand for a change in the risk management process of a program. At present, there is no guidelines as to when risk taking is justified due to high cost for a marginal improvement in risk. As a remedial step, Dr. Greenfield of NASA, developed a concept of risk management with risk as a resource. In the report, the following topics are addressed: (1) the risk management approach; (2) planning risk and program life cycle; (3) key components of a typical program; (4) the risk trading methodology; (5) review and decision process; (6) merits of the proposed risk planning approach; and (7) recommendations.

Design for Reliability and Safety Approach for the New NASA Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Weldon, Danny M.

2007-01-01

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program intended for sending crew and cargo to the international Space Station (ISS), to the moon, and beyond. This program is called Constellation. As part of the Constellation program, NASA is developing new launch vehicles aimed at significantly increase safety and reliability, reduce the cost of accessing space, and provide a growth path for manned space exploration. Achieving these goals requires a rigorous process that addresses reliability, safety, and cost upfront and throughout all the phases of the life cycle of the program. This paper discusses the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the NASA new launch vehicles, the ARES I and ARES V. Specifically, the paper addresses the use of an integrated probabilistic functional analysis to support the design analysis cycle and a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to support the preliminary design and beyond.

Satellite solar power - Will it pay off

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.

1977-01-01

A cost analysis is presented for front-end investments required for the development of a satellite solar power system. The methodology used makes use of risk analysis techniques to quantify the present state of knowledge relevant to the construction and operation of a satellite solar power station 20 years in the future. Results are used to evaluate the 'expected value' of a three-year research program providing additional information which will be used as a basis for a decision to either continue development of the concept at an increasing funding level or to terminate or drastically alter the program. The program is costed phase by phase, and a decision tree is constructed. The estimated probability of success for the research and studies phase is .540. The expected value of a program leading to the construction of 120 systems at a rate of four per year is 12.433 billion dollars.

Timing and effect of a safe routes to school program on child pedestrian injury risk during school travel hours: Bayesian changepoint and difference-in-differences analysis.

PubMed

DiMaggio, Charles; Chen, Qixuan; Muennig, Peter A; Li, Guohua

2014-12-01

In 2005, the US Congress allocated $612 million for a national Safe Routes to School (SRTS) program to encourage walking and bicycling to schools. We evaluated the effectiveness of a SRTS in controlling pedestrian injuries among school-age children. Bayesian changepoint analysis was applied to model the quarterly counts of pedestrian injuries among 5- to 19-year old children in New York City between 2001 and 2010 during school-travel hours in census tracts with and without SRTS. Overdispersed Poisson model was used to estimate difference-in-differences in injury risk between census tracts with and without SRTS following the changepoint. In SRTS-intervention census tracts, a change point in the quarterly counts of injuries was identified in the second quarter of 2008, which was consistent with the timing of the implementation of SRTS interventions. In census tracts with SRTS interventions, the estimated quarterly rates of pedestrian injury per 10,000 population among school-age children during school-travel hours were 3.47 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 2.67, 4.39) prior to the changepoint, and 0.74 (95% CrI 0.30, 1.50) after the changepoint. There was no change in the average number of quarterly injuries in non-SRTS census tracts. Overdispersed Poisson modeling revealed that SRTS implementation was associated with a 44% reduction (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 87% decrease to 130% increase) in school-age pedestrian injury risk during school-travel hours. Bayesian changepoint analysis of quarterly counts of school-age pedestrian injuries successfully identified the timing of SRTS intervention in New York City. Implementation of the SRTS program in New York City appears to be effective in reducing school-age pedestrian injuries during school-travel hours.

Sustaining a Mature Risk Management Process: Ensuring the International Space Station for a Vibrant Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raftery, Michael; Carter-Journet, Katrina

2013-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) risk management methodology is an example of a mature and sustainable process. Risk management is a systematic approach used to proactively identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate, and document risks to help management make risk-informed decisions that increase the likelihood of achieving program objectives. The ISS has been operating in space for over 14 years and permanently crewed for over 12 years. It is the longest surviving habitable vehicle in low Earth orbit history. Without a mature and proven risk management plan, it would be increasingly difficult to achieve mission success throughout the life of the ISS Program. A successful risk management process must be able to adapt to a dynamic program. As ISS program-level decision processes have evolved, so too has the ISS risk management process continued to innovate, improve, and adapt. Constant adaptation of risk management tools and an ever-improving process is essential to the continued success of the ISS Program. Above all, sustained support from program management is vital to risk management continued effectiveness. Risk management is valued and stressed as an important process by the ISS Program.

Using Enterprise Architecture for Analysis of a Complex Adaptive Organization's Risk Inducing Characteristics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salguero, Laura Marie; Huff, Johnathon; Matta, Anthony R.

Sandia National Laboratories is an organization with a wide range of research and development activities that include nuclear, explosives, and chemical hazards. In addition, Sandia has over 2000 labs and over 40 major test facilities, such as the Thermal Test Complex, the Lightning Test Facility, and the Rocket Sled Track. In order to support safe operations, Sandia has a diverse Environment, Safety, and Health (ES&H) organization that provides expertise to support engineers and scientists in performing work safely. With such a diverse organization to support, the ES&H program continuously seeks opportunities to improve the services provided for Sandia by usingmore » various methods as part of their risk management strategy. One of the methods being investigated is using enterprise architecture analysis to mitigate risk inducing characteristics such as normalization of deviance, organizational drift, and problems in information flow. This paper is a case study for how a Department of Defense Architecture Framework (DoDAF) model of the ES&H enterprise, including information technology applications, can be analyzed to understand the level of risk associated with the risk inducing characteristics discussed above. While the analysis is not complete, we provide proposed analysis methods that will be used for future research as the project progresses.« less

Impact of Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law on high-risk patients: A comparative interrupted time series analysis.

PubMed

Chang, Hsien-Yen; Murimi, Irene; Faul, Mark; Rutkow, Lainie; Alexander, G Caleb

2018-04-01

We quantified the effects of Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law on high-risk patients. We used QuintilesIMS LRx Lifelink data to identify patients receiving prescription opioids in Florida (intervention state, N: 1.13 million) and Georgia (control state, N: 0.54 million). The preintervention, intervention, and postintervention periods were July 2010 to June 2011, July 2011 to September 2011, and October 2011 to September 2012. We identified 3 types of high-risk patients: (1) concomitant users: patients with concomitant use of benzodiazepines and opioids; (2) chronic users: long-term, high-dose, opioid users; and (3) opioid shoppers: patients receiving opioids from multiple sources. We compared changes in opioid prescriptions between Florida and Georgia before and after policy implementation among high-risk/low-risk patients. Our monthly measures included (1) average morphine milligram equivalent per transaction, (2) total opioid volume across all prescriptions, (3) average days supplied per transaction, and (4) total number of opioid prescriptions dispensed. Among opioid-receiving individuals in Florida, 6.62% were concomitant users, 1.96% were chronic users, and 0.46% were opioid shoppers. Following policy implementation, Florida's high-risk patients experienced relative reductions in morphine milligram equivalent (opioid shoppers: -1.08 mg/month, 95% confidence interval [CI] -1.62 to -0.54), total opioid volume (chronic users: -4.58 kg/month, CI -5.41 to -3.76), and number of dispensed opioid prescriptions (concomitant users: -640 prescriptions/month, CI -950 to -340). Low-risk patients generally did not experience statistically significantly relative reductions. Compared with Georgia, Florida's prescription drug monitoring program and pill mill law were associated with large relative reductions in prescription opioid utilization among high-risk patients. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Five-year experience of tele-ophthalmology for diabetic retinopathy screening in a rural population.

PubMed

Rodríguez Villa, S; Alonso Álvarez, C; de Dios Del Valle, R; Salazar Méndez, R; Cuesta García, M; Ruiz García, M J; Cubillas Martín, M; Rodríguez Vazquez, M

2016-09-01

To identify the prevalence and risk factors of diabetic retinopathy (DR) among rural inhabitants included in a tele-ophthalmology program. To analyse diagnostic accuracy among primary care physicians, concordance with ophthalmologists, and financial savings. An observational randomised study was conducted on 394 patients included in a tele-ophthalmology program (from January 2010 to January 2015). An analysis was performed on the clinical characteristics, DR findings in retinography images, and correspondence between the request for a second interpretation by an ophthalmologist, and previously established criteria for it: presence of moderate to severe DR, vision loss, poor image quality and/or intraocular pressure >22mmHg. Statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS program (Student t and χ(2) tests). DR prevalence was 12.1%. Patients with glycosylated haemoglobin values >7.68% or those treated with a combination of insulin and oral antidiabetic drugs showed a higher risk of DR (P<.05). 43.3% of patients correctly referred to ophthalmologists showed moderate to severe DR. Unnecessary referrals to specialists were improved from 91.7% in 2010 to 98.6% in 2014. It is estimated that the program has made a total saving of €152,550.45. Tele-ophthalmology programs are a useful tool in DR screening. Primary care physicians are able to distinguish patients who need specialist care, avoiding unnecessary referrals to ophthalmologists, and saving costs. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Dissonance-based Interventions for the Prevention of Eating Disorders: Using Persuasion Principles to Promote Health

PubMed Central

Stice, Eric; Shaw, Heather; Becker, Carolyn Black; Rohde, Paul

2008-01-01

The limited efficacy of prior eating disorder (ED) prevention programs led to the development of dissonance-based interventions (DBI) that utilize dissonance-based persuasion principles from social psychology. Although DBIs have been used to change other attitudes and behaviors, only recently have they been applied to ED prevention. This article reviews the theoretical rationale and empirical support for this type of prevention program. Relative to assessment-only controls, DBIs have produced greater reductions in ED risk factors, ED symptoms, future risk for onset of threshold or subthreshold EDs, future risk for obesity onset, and mental health utilization, with some effects persisting through 3-year follow-up. DBIs have also produced significantly stronger effects than alternative interventions for many of these outcomes, though these effects typically fade more quickly. A meta-analysis indicated that the average effects for DBIs were significantly stronger than those for non-DBI ED prevention programs that have been evaluated. DBIs have produced effects when delivered to high-risk samples and unselected samples, as well as in efficacy and effectiveness trials conducted by six independent labs, suggesting that the effects are robust and that DBIs should be considered for the prevention of other problems, such as smoking, substance abuse, HIV, and diabetes care. PMID:18506621

Home-based exercise may not decrease the insulin resistance in individuals with metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Chen, Chiao-Nan; Chuang, Lee-Ming; Korivi, Mallikarjuna; Wu, Ying-Tai

2015-01-01

This study investigated the differences in exercise self-efficacy, compliance, and effectiveness of home-based exercise in individuals with and without metabolic syndrome (MetS). One hundred and ten individuals at risk for diabetes participated in this study. Subjects were categorized into individuals with MetS and individuals without MetS. Metabolic risk factors and exercise self-efficacy were evaluated for all subjects before and after 3 months of home-based exercise. Univariate analysis of variance was used to compare the effectiveness of a home-based exercise program between individuals with and without MetS. The home-based exercise program improved body mass index and lipid profile in individuals at risk for diabetes, regardless of MetS status at baseline. Individuals without MetS had higher exercise self-efficacy at baseline and performed greater exercise volume compared with individuals with MetS during the intervention. The increased exercise volume in individuals without MetS may contribute to their better control of insulin resistance than individuals with MetS. Furthermore, baseline exercise self-efficacy was correlated with exercise volume executed by subjects at home. We conclude that home-based exercise programs are beneficial for individuals at risk for diabetes. However, more intensive and/or supervised exercise intervention may be needed for those with MetS.

Applying the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program risk calculator to patients undergoing colorectal surgery: theory vs reality.

PubMed

Adegboyega, Titilayo O; Borgert, Andrew J; Lambert, Pamela J; Jarman, Benjamin T

2017-01-01

Discussing potential morbidity and mortality is essential to informed decision-making and consent. The American College of Surgery National Surgical Quality Improvement Program developed an online risk calculator (RC) using patient-specific information to determine operative risk. Colorectal procedures at our independent academic medical center from 2010 to 2011 were evaluated. The RC's predicted outcomes were compared with observed outcomes. Statistical analysis included Brier score, Wilcoxon sign rank test, and standardized event ratio. There were 324 patients included. The RC's Brier score was .24 (.015-.219) for predicting mortality and morbidity, respectively. The observed event rate for surgical site infection and any complication was higher than the RC predicted (standardized event ratio 1.9 CI [1.49 to 2.39] and 1.39 CI [1.14 to 1.68], respectively). The observed length of stay was longer than predicted (5.6 vs 6.6 days, P < .001). The RC underestimated the surgical site infection and overall complication rates. The RC is a valuable tool in predicting risk for adverse outcomes; however, institution-specific trends may influence actual risk. Surgeons and institutions must recognize areas where they are outliers from estimated risks and tailor risk discussions accordingly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

STS-121/Discovery: Imagery Quick-Look Briefing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2006-01-01

Kyle Herring (NASA Public Affairs) introduced Wayne Hale (Space Shuttle Program Manager) who stated that the imagery for the Space shuttle external tank showed the tank performed very well. Image analysis showed small pieces of foam falling off the rocket booster and external tank. There was no risk involved in these minor incidents. Statistical models were built to assist in risk analysis. The orbiter performed excellently. Wayne also provided some close-up pictures of small pieces of foam separating from the external tank during launching. He said the crew will also perform a 100% inspection of the heat shield. This flight showed great improvement over previous flights.

[Development and evaluation of a small group-based cardiocerebrovascular disease prevention education program for male bus drivers].

PubMed

Kim, Eun Young; Hwang, Seon Young

2012-06-01

This study was conducted to examine effects of a small group-based cardiocerebrovascular disease (CVD) prevention education program on knowledge, stage of change and health behavior among male bus drivers with CVD risk factors. A non-equivalent control group pretest-posttest design was used. Participants were 68 male bus drivers recruited from two urban bus companies. Participants from the two groups were selected by matching age, education and risk factors. Experimental group (n=34) received a small group-based CVD prevention education program 8 times over 6 weeks and 3 times through telephone interviews at 2-week intervals. Data were collected between December, 2010 and March, 2011, and were analyzed using chi-square test, t-test, and repeated measure analysis of variance with SPSS/Win18.0. Experimental group showed significantly higher scores in CVD prevention knowledge (p<.001) and health behavior (p<.001) at 6 and 12 weeks after intervention. Participants in pre-contemplation and contemplation stages made progress to contemplation and action. This was significantly better at 6 and 12 weeks after intervention (p<.001). Results suggest that small group-based education programs for CVD prevention are effective in increasing knowledge, stage of change, and health behavior to prevent CVD among male bus drivers with CVD risk.